WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling tropical biodiversity

  1. Cycad diversification and tropical biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rull, V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The recent unexpected discovery that living Cycadales are not Jurassic-Cretaceous (200– 65 Mya relicts, as all their extant genera began to diversify during the Late Miocene (12 Mya, has challenged a classical evolutionary myth. This brief note shows how this finding may also provide new clues on the shaping of the high tropical biodiversity

    El reciente e inesperado descubrimiento de que las Cycadales actuales no son relictos Jurásico-Cretácicos (200-65 Mya, ya que todos sus géneros iniciaron su diversificación durante el Mioceno Tardío (12 Mya, ha puesto en entredicho un mito evolutivo clásico. En esta nota se expone como este hallazgo puede, además, proporcionar nuevas pistas sobre el origen de la elevada biodiversidad tropical.

  2. Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilbert, David W

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

  3. Mapping tropical biodiversity using spectroscopic imagery : characterization of structural and chemical diversity with 3-D radiative transfer modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feret, J. B.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.; Lefèvre-Fonollosa, M. J.; Proisy, C.; Asner, G. P.

    2014-12-01

    The accelerating loss of biodiversity is a major environmental trend. Tropical ecosystems are particularly threatened due to climate change, invasive species, farming and natural resources exploitation. Recent advances in remote sensing of biodiversity confirmed the potential of high spatial resolution spectroscopic imagery for species identification and biodiversity mapping. Such information bridges the scale-gap between small-scale, highly detailed field studies and large-scale, low-resolution satellite observations. In order to produce fine-scale resolution maps of canopy alpha-diversity and beta-diversity of the Peruvian Amazonian forest, we designed, applied and validated a method based on spectral variation hypothesis to CAO AToMS (Carnegie Airborne Observatory Airborne Taxonomic Mapping System) images, acquired from 2011 to 2013. There is a need to understand on a quantitative basis the physical processes leading to this spectral variability. This spectral variability mainly depends on canopy chemistry, structure, and sensor's characteristics. 3D radiative transfer modeling provides a powerful framework for the study of the relative influence of each of these factors in dense and complex canopies. We simulated series of spectroscopic images with the 3D radiative model DART, with variability gradients in terms of leaf chemistry, individual tree structure, spatial and spectral resolution, and applied methods for biodiversity mapping. This sensitivity study allowed us to determine the relative influence of these factors on the radiometric signal acquired by different types of sensors. Such study is particularly important to define the domain of validity of our approach, to refine requirements for the instrumental specifications, and to help preparing hyperspectral spatial missions to be launched at the horizon 2015-2025 (EnMAP, PRISMA, HISUI, SHALOM, HYSPIRI, HYPXIM). Simulations in preparation include topographic variations in order to estimate the robustness

  4. Agroforestry: a refuge for tropical biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagwat, Shonil A; Willis, Katherine J; Birks, H John B; Whittaker, Robert J

    2008-05-01

    As rates of deforestation continue to rise in many parts of the tropics, the international conservation community is faced with the challenge of finding approaches which can reduce deforestation and provide rural livelihoods in addition to conserving biodiversity. Much of modern-day conservation is motivated by a desire to conserve 'pristine nature' in protected areas, while there is growing recognition of the long-term human involvement in forest dynamics and of the importance of conservation outside protected areas. Agroforestry -- intentional management of shade trees with agricultural crops -- has the potential for providing habitats outside formally protected land, connecting nature reserves and alleviating resource-use pressure on conservation areas. Here we examine the role of agroforestry systems in maintaining species diversity and conclude that these systems can play an important role in biodiversity conservation in human-dominated landscapes.

  5. Plant biodiversity changes in Carboniferous tropical wetlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleal, C. J.; Uhl, D.; Cascales-Miñana, B.

    2012-01-01

    and Sydney coal basins. In all cases, species richness expansion followed an essentially logistic curve typical of that associated with ecologically closed habitats, with niche saturation being achieved in about three million years. The resulting steady-state (“climax”) coal swamp vegetation had a local......Using a combination of species richness, polycohort and constrained cluster analyses, the plant biodiversity of Pennsylvanian (late Carboniferous) tropical wetlands (“coal swamps”) has been investigated in five areas in Western Europe and eastern North America: South Wales, Pennines, Ruhr, Saarland...

  6. The integration of empirical, remote sensing and modelling approaches enhances insight in the role of biodiversity in climate change mitigation by tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sande, van der Masha T.; Poorter, Lourens; Balvanera, Patricia; Kooistra, Lammert; Thonicke, Kirsten; Boit, Alice; Dutrieux, Loic; Equihua, Julian; Gerard, France; Herold, Martin; Kolb, Melanie; Simões, Margareth; Peña-Claros, Marielos

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests store and sequester high amounts of carbon and are the most diverse terrestrial ecosystem. A complete understanding of the relationship between biodiversity and carbon storage and sequestration across spatiotemporal scales relevant for climate change mitigation needs three

  7. Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Zorello Laporta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text] estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate

  8. The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna

    OpenAIRE

    Abreu, Rodolfo C. R.; Hoffmann, William A.; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.; Pilon, Natashi A.; Rossatto, Davi R.; Durigan, Giselda

    2017-01-01

    Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. ...

  9. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.F. Laurance; D.C. Useche; J. Rendeiro; and others NO-VALUE; Ariel Lugo

    2012-01-01

    The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon1–3. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment...

  10. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  11. Pervasive Defaunation of Forest Remnants in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Gustavo R.; Peres, Carlos A.; Guidorizzi, Carlos E.; Gatto, Cassiano A. Ferreira; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M.

    2012-01-01

    Tropical deforestation and forest fragmentation are among the most important biodiversity conservation issues worldwide, yet local extinctions of millions of animal and plant populations stranded in unprotected forest remnants remain poorly explained. Here, we report unprecedented rates of local extinctions of medium to large-bodied mammals in one of the world's most important tropical biodiversity hotspots. We scrutinized 8,846 person-years of local knowledge to derive patch occupancy data for 18 mammal species within 196 forest patches across a 252,669-km2 study region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We uncovered a staggering rate of local extinctions in the mammal fauna, with only 767 from a possible 3,528 populations still persisting. On average, forest patches retained 3.9 out of 18 potential species occupancies, and geographic ranges had contracted to 0–14.4% of their former distributions, including five large-bodied species that had been extirpated at a regional scale. Forest fragments were highly accessible to hunters and exposed to edge effects and fires, thereby severely diminishing the predictive power of species-area relationships, with the power model explaining only ∼9% of the variation in species richness per patch. Hence, conventional species-area curves provided over-optimistic estimates of species persistence in that most forest fragments had lost species at a much faster rate than predicted by habitat loss alone. PMID:22905103

  12. Pervasive defaunation of forest remnants in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo R Canale

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation and forest fragmentation are among the most important biodiversity conservation issues worldwide, yet local extinctions of millions of animal and plant populations stranded in unprotected forest remnants remain poorly explained. Here, we report unprecedented rates of local extinctions of medium to large-bodied mammals in one of the world's most important tropical biodiversity hotspots. We scrutinized 8,846 person-years of local knowledge to derive patch occupancy data for 18 mammal species within 196 forest patches across a 252,669-km(2 study region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We uncovered a staggering rate of local extinctions in the mammal fauna, with only 767 from a possible 3,528 populations still persisting. On average, forest patches retained 3.9 out of 18 potential species occupancies, and geographic ranges had contracted to 0-14.4% of their former distributions, including five large-bodied species that had been extirpated at a regional scale. Forest fragments were highly accessible to hunters and exposed to edge effects and fires, thereby severely diminishing the predictive power of species-area relationships, with the power model explaining only ~9% of the variation in species richness per patch. Hence, conventional species-area curves provided over-optimistic estimates of species persistence in that most forest fragments had lost species at a much faster rate than predicted by habitat loss alone.

  13. The origins of tropical marine biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Brian W; Rocha, Luiz A; Toonen, Robert J; Karl, Stephen A

    2013-06-01

    Recent phylogeographic studies have overturned three paradigms for the origins of marine biodiversity. (i) Physical (allopatric) isolation is not the sole avenue for marine speciation: many species diverge along ecological boundaries. (ii) Peripheral habitats such as oceanic archipelagos are not evolutionary graveyards: these regions can export biodiversity. (iii) Speciation in marine and terrestrial ecosystems follow similar processes but are not the same: opportunities for allopatric isolation are fewer in the oceans, leaving greater opportunity for speciation along ecological boundaries. Biodiversity hotspots such as the Caribbean Sea and the Indo-Pacific Coral Triangle produce and export species, but can also accumulate biodiversity produced in peripheral habitats. Both hotspots and peripheral ecosystems benefit from this exchange in a process dubbed biodiversity feedback. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    OpenAIRE

    Laurance, William F; Useche, D. Carolina; Rendeiro, Julio; Kalka, Margareta; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Sloan, Sean P; Laurance, Susan G; Campbell, Mason; Abernethy, Kate; Alvarez, Patricia; Arroyo-Rodriguez, Victor; Ashton, Peter; Benitez-Malvido, Julieta; Blom, Allard; Bobo, Kadiri S

    2012-01-01

    The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their bi...

  15. The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abreu, Rodolfo C R; Hoffmann, William A; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Pilon, Natashi A; Rossatto, Davi R; Durigan, Giselda

    2017-08-01

    Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha -1 year -1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation.

  16. Restoring biodiversity and forest ecosystem services in degraded tropical landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Parrotta

    2010-01-01

    Over the past century, an estimated 850 million ha of the world’s tropical forests have been lost or severely degraded, with serious impacts on local and regional biodiversity. A significant proportion of these lands were originally cleared of their forest cover for agricultural development or other economic uses. Today, however, they provide few if any environmental...

  17. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laurence, W. F.; Novotný, Vojtěch

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 489, č. 7415 (2012), s. 290-294 ISSN 0028-0836 Grant - others:NSF grant(AU) RCN-0741956 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : biodiversity * tropical forest * collapse Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 38.597, year: 2012 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nature11318.pdf

  18. Habitat modeling for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2006-01-01

    Habitat models address only 1 component of biodiversity but can be useful in addressing and managing single or multiple species and ecosystem functions, for projecting disturbance regimes, and in supporting decisions. I review categories and examples of habitat models, their utility for biodiversity conservation, and their roles in making conservation decisions. I...

  19. The Value of Tropical Biodiversity in Rural Melanesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Foale

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss differences in the ways transnational conservationists and Melanesian farmers, hunters and fishers value "biodiversity". The money for conservation projects in developing countries originates from people who are embedded in a capitalist system, which allows engagement with nature as an abstract entity. Their western education has given them a scientific/ evolutionary-based worldview, which attributes intrinsic value to all species (and particular arrangements of species, e.g. rainforests and coral reefs, irrespective of economic value or ecosystem function. Because this value system is mostly not shared by the custodians of the biodiversity that conservationists want to save, alternative tactics and arguments are utilised. These inevitably take the form of so-called "win-win" economic rationales for preserving biodiversity, most of which do not work well (e.g. bioprospecting, ecotourism, non-timber forest products, environmental certification schemes, payments for ecosystem services, etc., for reasons which we detail. Agriculture- and aquaculture-based livelihoods appear to enjoy more success than the "win-win" options but do not necessarily obviate or deter further biodiversity loss. Artisanal use of species-poor but productive and resilient pelagic fisheries is increasing. These ecological and economic realities bring into sharp focus the importance of understanding differences in value systems for successful biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  20. Restoring degraded tropical forests for carbon and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budiharta, Sugeng; Meijaard, Erik; Wilson, Kerrie A; Erskine, Peter D; Rondinini, Carlo; Pacifici, Michela

    2014-01-01

    The extensive deforestation and degradation of tropical forests is a significant contributor to the loss of biodiversity and to global warming. Restoration could potentially mitigate the impacts of deforestation, yet knowledge on how to efficiently allocate funding for restoration is still in its infancy. We systematically prioritize investments in restoration in the tropical landscape of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and through this application demonstrate the capacity to account for a diverse suite of restoration techniques and forests of varying condition. To achieve this we develop a map of forest degradation for the region, characterized on the basis of aboveground biomass and differentiated by broad forest types. We estimate the costs of restoration as well as the benefits in terms of carbon sequestration and improving the suitability of habitat for threatened mammals through time. When the objective is solely to enhance carbon stocks, then restoration of highly degraded lowland forest is the most cost-effective activity. However, if the objective is to improve the habitat of threatened species, multiple forest types should be restored and this reduces the accumulated carbon by up to 24%. Our analysis framework provides a transparent method for prioritizing where and how restoration should occur in heterogeneous landscapes in order to maximize the benefits for carbon and biodiversity. (letter)

  1. Restoring degraded tropical forests for carbon and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiharta, Sugeng; Meijaard, Erik; Erskine, Peter D.; Rondinini, Carlo; Pacifici, Michela; Wilson, Kerrie A.

    2014-11-01

    The extensive deforestation and degradation of tropical forests is a significant contributor to the loss of biodiversity and to global warming. Restoration could potentially mitigate the impacts of deforestation, yet knowledge on how to efficiently allocate funding for restoration is still in its infancy. We systematically prioritize investments in restoration in the tropical landscape of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and through this application demonstrate the capacity to account for a diverse suite of restoration techniques and forests of varying condition. To achieve this we develop a map of forest degradation for the region, characterized on the basis of aboveground biomass and differentiated by broad forest types. We estimate the costs of restoration as well as the benefits in terms of carbon sequestration and improving the suitability of habitat for threatened mammals through time. When the objective is solely to enhance carbon stocks, then restoration of highly degraded lowland forest is the most cost-effective activity. However, if the objective is to improve the habitat of threatened species, multiple forest types should be restored and this reduces the accumulated carbon by up to 24%. Our analysis framework provides a transparent method for prioritizing where and how restoration should occur in heterogeneous landscapes in order to maximize the benefits for carbon and biodiversity.

  2. Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian J.; Coombes, Emma; Fitzherbert, Emily; Binner, Amy; Bad’ura, Tomáš; Carbone, Chris; Fisher, Brendan; Naidoo, Robin; Watkinson, Andrew R.

    2015-01-01

    The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing—and to-date insufficient—approaches to conservation. PMID:26077906

  3. Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian J; Coombes, Emma; Fitzherbert, Emily; Binner, Amy; Bad'ura, Tomáš; Carbone, Chris; Fisher, Brendan; Naidoo, Robin; Watkinson, Andrew R

    2015-06-16

    The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing--and to-date insufficient--approaches to conservation.

  4. Road-networks, a practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in Tropical forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosaka, T; Yamada, T; Okuda, T

    2014-01-01

    Tropical forests sustain the most diverse plants and animals in the world, but are also being lost most rapidly. Rapid assessment and monitoring using remote sensing on biodiversity of tropical forests is needed to predict and evaluate biodiversity loss by human activities. Identification of reliable indicators of forest biodiversity and/or its loss is an urgent issue. In the present paper, we propose the density of road networks in tropical forests can be a good and practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in tropical forests through reviewing papers and introducing our preliminary survey in peninsular Malaysia. Many previous studies suggest a strong negative impact of forest roads on biodiversity in tropical rainforests since they changes microclimate, soil properties, drainage patterns, canopy openness and forest accessibility. Moreover, our preliminary survey also showed that even a narrow logging road (6 m wide) significantly lowered abundance of dung beetles (well-known bio-indicator in biodiversity survey in tropical forests) near the road. Since these road networks are readily to be detected with remote sensing approach such as aerial photographs and Lider, regulation and monitoring of the road networks using remote sensing techniques is a key to slow down the rate of biodiversity loss due to forest degradation in tropical forests

  5. Road-networks, a practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in Tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosaka, T.; Yamada, T.; Okuda, T.

    2014-02-01

    Tropical forests sustain the most diverse plants and animals in the world, but are also being lost most rapidly. Rapid assessment and monitoring using remote sensing on biodiversity of tropical forests is needed to predict and evaluate biodiversity loss by human activities. Identification of reliable indicators of forest biodiversity and/or its loss is an urgent issue. In the present paper, we propose the density of road networks in tropical forests can be a good and practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in tropical forests through reviewing papers and introducing our preliminary survey in peninsular Malaysia. Many previous studies suggest a strong negative impact of forest roads on biodiversity in tropical rainforests since they changes microclimate, soil properties, drainage patterns, canopy openness and forest accessibility. Moreover, our preliminary survey also showed that even a narrow logging road (6 m wide) significantly lowered abundance of dung beetles (well-known bio-indicator in biodiversity survey in tropical forests) near the road. Since these road networks are readily to be detected with remote sensing approach such as aerial photographs and Lider, regulation and monitoring of the road networks using remote sensing techniques is a key to slow down the rate of biodiversity loss due to forest degradation in tropical forests.

  6. Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

  7. Would protecting tropical forest fragments provide carbon and biodiversity cobenefits under REDD+?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnago, Luiz Fernando S; Magrach, Ainhoa; Laurance, William F; Martins, Sebastião V; Meira-Neto, João Augusto A; Simonelli, Marcelo; Edwards, David P

    2015-09-01

    Tropical forests store vast amounts of carbon and are the most biodiverse terrestrial habitats, yet they are being converted and degraded at alarming rates. Given global shortfalls in the budgets required to prevent carbon and biodiversity loss, we need to seek solutions that simultaneously address both issues. Of particular interest are carbon-based payments under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism to also conserve biodiversity at no additional cost. One potential is for REDD+ to protect forest fragments, especially within biomes where contiguous forest cover has diminished dramatically, but we require empirical tests of the strength of any carbon and biodiversity cobenefits in such fragmented systems. Using the globally threatened Atlantic Forest landscape, we measured above-ground carbon stocks within forest fragments spanning 13 to 23 442 ha in area and with different degrees of isolation. We related these stocks to tree community structure and to the richness and abundance of endemic and IUCN Red-listed species. We found that increasing fragment size has a positive relationship with above-ground carbon stock and with abundance of IUCN Red-listed species and tree community structure. We also found negative relationships between distance from large forest block and tree community structure, endemic species richness and abundance, and IUCN Red-listed species abundance. These resulted in positive congruence between carbon stocks and Red-listed species, and the abundance and richness of endemic species, demonstrating vital cobenefits. As such, protecting forest fragments in hotspots of biodiversity, particularly larger fragments and those closest to sources, offers important carbon and biodiversity cobenefits. More generally, our results suggest that macroscale models of cobenefits under REDD+ have likely overlooked key benefits at small scales, indicating the necessity to apply models that include finer

  8. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  9. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Beaudrot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes

  10. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, Jorge A; O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R; Willig, Michael R; Winarni, Nurul L; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  11. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A.; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H.; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R.; Willig, Michael R.; Winarni, Nurul L.; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  12. Consequences of tropical land use for multitrophic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Andrew D; Jochum, Malte; Mumme, Steffen; Haneda, Noor Farikhah; Farajallah, Achmad; Widarto, Tri Heru; Brose, Ulrich

    2014-10-28

    Our knowledge about land-use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is mostly limited to single trophic levels, leaving us uncertain about whole-community biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships. We analyse consequences of the globally important land-use transformation from tropical forests to oil palm plantations. Species diversity, density and biomass of invertebrate communities suffer at least 45% decreases from rainforest to oil palm. Combining metabolic and food-web theory, we calculate annual energy fluxes to model impacts of land-use intensification on multitrophic ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate a 51% reduction in energy fluxes from forest to oil palm communities. Species loss clearly explains variation in energy fluxes; however, this relationship depends on land-use systems and functional feeding guilds, whereby predators are the most heavily affected. Biodiversity decline from forest to oil palm is thus accompanied by even stronger reductions in functionality, threatening to severely limit the functional resilience of communities to cope with future global changes.

  13. Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Mercedes M C; Roitman, Iris; Aide, T Mitchell; Alencar, Ane; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz; Asner, Gregory P; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Chambers, Jeffrey; Costa, Marcos H; Fanin, Thierry; Ferreira, Laerte G; Ferreira, Joice; Keller, Michael; Magnusson, William E; Morales-Barquero, Lucia; Morton, Douglas; Ometto, Jean P H B; Palace, Michael; Peres, Carlos A; Silvério, Divino; Trumbore, Susan; Vieira, Ima C G

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Limited carbon and biodiversity co-benefits for tropical forest mammals and birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Kroetz, Kailin; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Amaral, Eda; Breuer, Thomas; Fletcher, Christine; Jansen, Patrick A; Kenfack, David; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Marshall, Andrew R; Martin, Emanuel H; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; O'Brien, Timothy; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Roy, Cisquet Hector; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Carlos E F; Spironello, Wilson Roberto; Valencia, Renato; Zvoleff, Alex; Ahumada, Jorge; Andelman, Sandy

    2016-06-01

    The conservation of tropical forest carbon stocks offers the opportunity to curb climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and simultaneously conserve biodiversity. However, there has been considerable debate about the extent to which carbon stock conservation will provide benefits to biodiversity in part because whether forests that contain high carbon density in their aboveground biomass also contain high animal diversity is unknown. Here, we empirically examined medium to large bodied ground-dwelling mammal and bird (hereafter "wildlife") diversity and carbon stock levels within the tropics using camera trap and vegetation data from a pantropical network of sites. Specifically, we tested whether tropical forests that stored more carbon contained higher wildlife species richness, taxonomic diversity, and trait diversity. We found that carbon stocks were not a significant predictor for any of these three measures of diversity, which suggests that benefits for wildlife diversity will not be maximized unless wildlife diversity is explicitly taken into account; prioritizing carbon stocks alone will not necessarily meet biodiversity conservation goals. We recommend conservation planning that considers both objectives because there is the potential for more wildlife diversity and carbon stock conservation to be achieved for the same total budget if both objectives are pursued in tandem rather than independently. Tropical forests with low elevation variability and low tree density supported significantly higher wildlife diversity. These tropical forest characteristics may provide more affordable proxies of wildlife diversity for future multi-objective conservation planning when fine scale data on wildlife are lacking.

  15. An exceptional role for flowering plant physiology in the expansion of tropical rainforests and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, C Kevin; Lee, Jung-Eun

    2010-11-22

    Movement of water from soil to atmosphere by plant transpiration can feed precipitation, but is limited by the hydraulic capacities of plants, which have not been uniform through time. The flowering plants that dominate modern vegetation possess transpiration capacities that are dramatically higher than any other plants, living or extinct. Transpiration operates at the level of the leaf, however, and how the impact of this physiological revolution scales up to the landscape and larger environment remains unclear. Here, climate modelling demonstrates that angiosperms help ensure aseasonally high levels of precipitation in the modern tropics. Most strikingly, replacement of angiosperm with non-angiosperm vegetation would result in a hotter, drier and more seasonal Amazon basin, decreasing the overall area of ever-wet rainforest by 80 per cent. Thus, flowering plant ecological dominance has strongly altered climate and the global hydrological cycle. Because tropical biodiversity is closely tied to precipitation and rainforest area, angiosperm climate modification may have promoted diversification of the angiosperms themselves, as well as radiations of diverse vertebrate and invertebrate animal lineages and of epiphytic plants. Their exceptional potential for environmental modification may have contributed to divergent responses to similar climates and global perturbations, like mass extinctions, before and after angiosperm evolution.

  16. Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function during the restoration of a tropical forest in south China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Hai; LI ZhiAn; SHEN WeiJun; YU ZuoYue; PENG ShaoLin; LIAO ChongHui; DING MingMao; WU JianGuo

    2007-01-01

    Tropical forests continue to vanish rapidly, but few long-term studies have ever examined if and how the lost forests can be restored. Based on a 45-year restoration study in south China, we found that a tropical rain forest, once completely destroyed, could not recover naturally without deliberate restoration efforts. We identified two kinds of thresholds that must be overcome with human ameliorative measures before the ecosystem was able to recover. The first threshold was imposed primarily by extreme physical conditions such as exceedingly high surface temperature and impoverished soil, while the second was characterized by a critical level of biodiversity and a landscape context that accommodates dispersal and colonization processes. Our three treatment catchments (un-restored barren land, single-species plantation, and mixed-forest stand) exhibited dramatically different changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over 4 decades. The mixed forest, having the highest level of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, possesses several major properties of tropical rain forest.These findings may have important implications for the restoration of many severely degraded or lost tropical forest ecosystems.

  17. Biodiversity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Tropical to Temperate Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond L. Specht

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During the short period of annual foliage growth in evergreen plant communities, aerodynamic fluxes (frictional, thermal, evaporative in the atmosphere as it flows over and through a plant community determine the Foliage Projective Covers and leaf attributes in overstorey and understorey strata. The number of leaves produced on each vertical foliage shoot depends on available soil water and nutrients during this growth period. The area of all leaves exposed to solar radiation determines net photosynthetic fixation of the plant community throughout the year. In turn, the species richness (number of species per hectare of both plants and resident vertebrates is determined. The species richness of unicellular algae and small multicellular isopods in permanent freshwater lagoons in Northern Australia may possibly have been increased by radiation released from nearby uranium deposits. Evolution of new angiosperms probably occurred in refugia during periods of extreme drought. When favourable climates were restored, the vegetation expanded to result in high Gamma Biodiversity (number of plant species per region but with each major plant community having essentially the same species richness (number of plant species per hectare. The probable effects of pollution and Global Warming on biodiversity in Australian ecosystems, that experience seasonal drought, are discussed.

  18. Can joint carbon and biodiversity management in tropical agroforestry landscapes be optimized?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Michael; Hertel, Dietrich; Jungkunst, Hermann F; Kluge, Jürgen; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Bos, Merijn; Buchori, Damayanti; Gerold, Gerhard; Gradstein, S Robbert; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Moser, Gerald; Pitopang, Ramadhanil; Saleh, Shahabuddin; Schulze, Christian H; Sporn, Simone G; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S; Tscharntke, Teja

    2012-01-01

    Managing ecosystems for carbon storage may also benefit biodiversity conservation, but such a potential 'win-win' scenario has not yet been assessed for tropical agroforestry landscapes. We measured above- and below-ground carbon stocks as well as the species richness of four groups of plants and eight of animals on 14 representative plots in Sulawesi, Indonesia, ranging from natural rainforest to cacao agroforests that have replaced former natural forest. The conversion of natural forests with carbon stocks of 227-362 Mg C ha(-1) to agroforests with 82-211 Mg C ha(-1) showed no relationships to overall biodiversity but led to a significant loss of forest-related species richness. We conclude that the conservation of the forest-related biodiversity, and to a lesser degree of carbon stocks, mainly depends on the preservation of natural forest habitats. In the three most carbon-rich agroforestry systems, carbon stocks were about 60% of those of natural forest, suggesting that 1.6 ha of optimally managed agroforest can contribute to the conservation of carbon stocks as much as 1 ha of natural forest. However, agroforestry systems had comparatively low biodiversity, and we found no evidence for a tight link between carbon storage and biodiversity. Yet, potential win-win agroforestry management solutions include combining high shade-tree quality which favours biodiversity with cacao-yield adapted shade levels.

  19. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Edward C. Netherlands; Courtney A. Cook; Donnavan J.D. Kruger; Louis H. du Preez; Nico J. Smit

    2015-01-01

    Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracell...

  20. Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jos; Lennox, Gareth D; Ferreira, Joice; Berenguer, Erika; Lees, Alexander C; Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Ferraz, Silvio Frosini de Barros; Louzada, Julio; Oliveira, Victor Hugo Fonseca; Parry, Luke; Solar, Ricardo Ribeiro de Castro; Vieira, Ima C G; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Begotti, Rodrigo Anzolin; Braga, Rodrigo F; Cardoso, Thiago Moreira; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Souza, Carlos M; Moura, Nárgila G; Nunes, Sâmia Serra; Siqueira, João Victor; Pardini, Renata; Silveira, Juliana M; Vaz-de-Mello, Fernando Z; Veiga, Ruan Carlo Stulpen; Venturieri, Adriano; Gardner, Toby A

    2016-07-07

    Concerted political attention has focused on reducing deforestation, and this remains the cornerstone of most biodiversity conservation strategies. However, maintaining forest cover may not reduce anthropogenic forest disturbances, which are rarely considered in conservation programmes. These disturbances occur both within forests, including selective logging and wildfires, and at the landscape level, through edge, area and isolation effects. Until now, the combined effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the conservation value of remnant primary forests has remained unknown, making it impossible to assess the relative importance of forest disturbance and forest loss. Here we address these knowledge gaps using a large data set of plants, birds and dung beetles (1,538, 460 and 156 species, respectively) sampled in 36 catchments in the Brazilian state of Pará. Catchments retaining more than 69–80% forest cover lost more conservation value from disturbance than from forest loss. For example, a 20% loss of primary forest, the maximum level of deforestation allowed on Amazonian properties under Brazil’s Forest Code, resulted in a 39–54% loss of conservation value: 96–171% more than expected without considering disturbance effects. We extrapolated the disturbance-mediated loss of conservation value throughout Pará, which covers 25% of the Brazilian Amazon. Although disturbed forests retained considerable conservation value compared with deforested areas, the toll of disturbance outside Pará’s strictly protected areas is equivalent to the loss of 92,000–139,000 km2 of primary forest. Even this lowest estimate is greater than the area deforested across the entire Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2015 (ref. 10). Species distribution models showed that both landscape and within-forest disturbances contributed to biodiversity loss, with the greatest negative effects on species of high conservation and functional value. These results demonstrate an urgent need

  1. Parks versus payments: reconciling divergent policy responses to biodiversity loss and climate change from tropical deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, Jonah; Grantham, Hedley S

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity loss and climate change both result from tropical deforestation, yet strategies to address biodiversity loss have focused primarily on protected areas while strategies to address climate change have focused primarily on carbon payments. Conservation planning research has focused largely on where to prioritize protected areas to achieve the greatest representation of species at viable levels. Meanwhile research on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has focused largely on how to design payments to achieve the greatest additional reduction in greenhouse gases relative to baseline rates. This divergence of strategies and research agendas may be attributed to four factors: rare species are more heterogeneously distributed than carbon; species are more difficult to measure and monitor than carbon; species are more sensitive to ecological processes and human disturbance than carbon; and people’s value for species diminishes beyond a threshold while their value for carbon storage does not. Conservation planning can achieve greater biodiversity benefits by adopting the concept of additionality from REDD+. REDD+ can achieve greater climate benefits by incorporating spatial prioritization from conservation planning. Climate and biodiversity benefits can best be jointly achieved from tropical forests by targeting the most additional actions to the most important places. These concepts are illustrated using data from the forests of Indonesia. (letter)

  2. Some Implications of High Biodiversity for Management of Tropical Marine Ecosystems—An Australian Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Kenchington

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While high biodiversity has been widely reported from the tropics, we suggest that in reality there is a considerable underestimate of the total biodiversity. We have concentrated on the tropical regions of Australia and the Coral Triangle. The best known groups are the corals, fish, and commercially important invertebrates. In considering whether this is true, we have concentrated on the diversity of benthic communities and water column communities which are poorly known. Yet at the bottom of the food chain these communities are highly dynamic and susceptible to the anthropogenic changes that are occurring with the rapid development in this highly populated region. Tropical biodiversity is under increasing stress from a synergistic combination of changes in climate, oceanographic regimes, increasing coastal development, overfishing, and poor water quality, resulting in bleaching of corals and loss of habitat and of associated fauna. These changes on reefs have received substantial research attention; in comparison, there is limited data on inter-reefal areas and water column communities and limited understanding of the ecological interconnectivity of all these habitats. While in this region there is growing marine protected area coverage, the major focus is on coral reefs with other habitats based on surrogacy with little if any ground-truthing. Within this region, there is limited capacity or inclination to rectify this lack of knowledge of the structure and ecology of the broader non-commercial benthic and pelagic communities. We suggest this lack of knowledge and limited expertise may be widespread throughout the tropics and compromises our ability to understand and predict the changes that are occurring with increasing anthropogenic impacts on these tropical ecosystems.

  3. Carbon stock corridors to mitigate climate change and promote biodiversity in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott; Laporte, Nadine

    2014-02-01

    A key issue in global conservation is how biodiversity co-benefits can be incorporated into land use and climate change mitigation activities, particularly those being negotiated under the United Nations to reduce emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Protected areas have been the dominant strategy for tropical forest conservation and they have increased substantially in recent decades. Avoiding deforestation by preserving carbon stored in vegetation between protected areas provides an opportunity to mitigate the effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity by maintaining habitat connectivity across landscapes. Here we use a high-resolution data set of vegetation carbon stock to map corridors traversing areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics. The derived corridors contain 15% of the total unprotected aboveground carbon in the tropical region. A large number of corridors have carbon densities that approach or exceed those of the protected areas they connect, suggesting these are suitable areas for achieving both habitat connectivity and climate change mitigation benefits. To further illustrate how economic and biological information can be used for corridor prioritization on a regional scale, we conducted a multicriteria analysis of corridors in the Legal Amazon, identifying corridors with high carbon, high species richness and endemism, and low economic opportunity costs. We also assessed the vulnerability of corridors to future deforestation threat.

  4. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  5. Modeling the building blocks of biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas N Joppa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Networks of single interaction types, such as plant-pollinator mutualisms, are biodiversity's "building blocks". Yet, the structure of mutualistic and antagonistic networks differs, leaving no unified modeling framework across biodiversity's component pieces. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use a one-dimensional "niche model" to predict antagonistic and mutualistic species interactions, finding that accuracy decreases with the size of the network. We show that properties of the modeled network structure closely approximate empirical properties even where individual interactions are poorly predicted. Further, some aspects of the structure of the niche space were consistently different between network classes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These novel results reveal fundamental differences between the ability to predict ecologically important features of the overall structure of a network and the ability to predict pair-wise species interactions.

  6. Relationships between meiofaunal biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production in different tropical habitats and oceanic regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusceddu, Antonio; Gambi, Cristina; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Scopa, Mariaspina; Danovaro, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF) is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production across seagrass, mangrove and reef sediments in the Caribbean, Celebes and Red Seas. For all variables we report the presence of differences among habitats within the same region, and among regions within the same habitat. In all regions, the richness of meiofaunal taxa in reef and seagrass sediments is higher than in mangrove sediments. The sediments of the Celebes Sea show the highest meiofaunal biodiversity. The composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies significantly among habitats in the same region. The nematode beta diversity among habitats within the same region is higher than the beta diversity among regions. Although one site per habitat was considered in each region, these results suggest that the composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies primarily among biogeographic regions, whereas the composition of nematode assemblages varies more considerably among habitats. Meiofauna and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production, even after the removal of covariate effects linked with longitude and the quantity and nutritional quality of organic matter, are positively and linearly linked both across regions and within each habitat type. Our results confirm that meiofauna and nematode biodiversity may influence benthic prokaryotic activity, which, in turn, implies that diversity loss could have negative impacts on ecosystem functioning in these systems.

  7. Relationships between meiofaunal biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production in different tropical habitats and oceanic regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Pusceddu

    Full Text Available Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production across seagrass, mangrove and reef sediments in the Caribbean, Celebes and Red Seas. For all variables we report the presence of differences among habitats within the same region, and among regions within the same habitat. In all regions, the richness of meiofaunal taxa in reef and seagrass sediments is higher than in mangrove sediments. The sediments of the Celebes Sea show the highest meiofaunal biodiversity. The composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies significantly among habitats in the same region. The nematode beta diversity among habitats within the same region is higher than the beta diversity among regions. Although one site per habitat was considered in each region, these results suggest that the composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies primarily among biogeographic regions, whereas the composition of nematode assemblages varies more considerably among habitats. Meiofauna and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production, even after the removal of covariate effects linked with longitude and the quantity and nutritional quality of organic matter, are positively and linearly linked both across regions and within each habitat type. Our results confirm that meiofauna and nematode biodiversity may influence benthic prokaryotic activity, which, in turn, implies that diversity loss could have negative impacts on ecosystem functioning in these systems.

  8. Wildfires, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity in Tropical Dry Forest in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerbeck, Joachim; Fiener, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This review is intended to contribute to the understanding of the interlinkage between wildfire in India's tropical dry forest (TDF) and selected ecosystem services (ES), namely forest provisioning and water regulating services, as well as biodiversity. TDF covers approximately 146,000 km2 (4.4 %) of India, whereas according to the MODIS fire product about 2200 km2 (1.4 %) burns per year. As studies on wildfire effects upon ESs and biodiversity in Indian TDFs are rare we partly transferred findings from other (dry) forest areas to the environmental situation in India. In India (intentionally lit) wildfires have a very important connection to local livelihoods and the availability of non-wood forest products. Very important adverse long-term effects are the deterioration of forest ecosystems and soil degradation. The potential for TDF to regulate hydrological cycles is expected to be greater in the absence of fire than with it. A general judgment on the effect of fire on biodiversity is difficult as it depends on the community and species involved but a loss of biodiversity under regular burnings is apparent. Consequently, forest managers need sound knowledge regarding the interplay of wildfires and ecosystem behavior in general and more specific knowledge regarding the effects on taxa being considered for conservation efforts. Generally, much more research is needed to understand the trade-offs between the short-term benefits gained from forest provisioning services and long-term adverse effects.

  9. Wildfires, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity in Tropical Dry Forest in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerbeck, Joachim; Fiener, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This review is intended to contribute to the understanding of the interlinkage between wildfire in India's tropical dry forest (TDF) and selected ecosystem services (ES), namely forest provisioning and water regulating services, as well as biodiversity. TDF covers approximately 146,000 km(2) (4.4%) of India, whereas according to the MODIS fire product about 2200 km(2) (1.4%) burns per year. As studies on wildfire effects upon ESs and biodiversity in Indian TDFs are rare we partly transferred findings from other (dry) forest areas to the environmental situation in India. In India (intentionally lit) wildfires have a very important connection to local livelihoods and the availability of non-wood forest products. Very important adverse long-term effects are the deterioration of forest ecosystems and soil degradation. The potential for TDF to regulate hydrological cycles is expected to be greater in the absence of fire than with it. A general judgment on the effect of fire on biodiversity is difficult as it depends on the community and species involved but a loss of biodiversity under regular burnings is apparent. Consequently, forest managers need sound knowledge regarding the interplay of wildfires and ecosystem behavior in general and more specific knowledge regarding the effects on taxa being considered for conservation efforts. Generally, much more research is needed to understand the trade-offs between the short-term benefits gained from forest provisioning services and long-term adverse effects.

  10. Generalized model of island biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-04-01

    The dynamics of a local community of competing species with weak immigration from a static regional pool is studied. Implementing the generalized competitive Lotka-Volterra model with demographic noise, a rich dynamics with four qualitatively distinct phases is unfolded. When the overall interspecies competition is weak, the island species recapitulate the mainland species. For higher values of the competition parameter, the system still admits an equilibrium community, but now some of the mainland species are absent on the island. Further increase in competition leads to an intermittent "disordered" phase, where the dynamics is controlled by invadable combinations of species and the turnover rate is governed by the migration. Finally, the strong competition phase is glasslike, dominated by uninvadable states and noise-induced transitions. Our model contains, as a special case, the celebrated neutral island theories of Wilson-MacArthur and Hubbell. Moreover, we show that slight deviations from perfect neutrality may lead to each of the phases, as the Hubbell point appears to be quadracritical.

  11. Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

  12. Managing biodiversity for a competitive ecotourism industry in tropical developing countries: New opportunities in biological fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, Luchman

    2017-11-01

    Managing biodiversity for sustainable and competitive ecotourism destinations requires a basic understanding of the principles of biology, which are poorly understood in tropical developing countries, including Indonesia. This paper describes the current status of tourism in Indonesia, identifies environment and biodiversity vulnerability in tourism destinations, and explores the challenges of the biological field in supporting ecotourism development. This review found that tourism, especially nature-based and ecotourism, has grown significantly in Indonesia, and the contribution of Indonesian biodiversity has been identified as significant. Threats to biodiversity, however, are found in nature-based tourism destinations. Issues related to pollution, exotic plant species invasion, habitat changes and degradation, habitat loss, and wildlife disturbance are widely reported, indicating the importance of such issues in destination management. Pollution is found in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Water pollution is an important issue among lakes and rivers. To date, there are few assessments of the impact of tourism activities on aquatic ecosystems, resulting in the management of aquatic ecosystems facing numerous difficulties. These studies identify the invasive plants found, which become a crucial problem in many nature-based tourism destinations, and which significantly contribute to a reduction in the existence of many flora-fauna in a wild habitat. Habitat changes and degradation are mostly influenced by tourism infrastructure development. Massive infrastructure development often leads to habitat loss, which is a crucial step in local biodiversity extinction. Increasing and uncontrolled visitor behaviors influence animal behavior changes, which is recognized as a dangerous phenomenon affecting animal survival in the future. An agenda for future integrative biological research is needed to improve resource management, to increase sustainability and the

  13. Biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity offers multiple opportunities for development and improving human well-being. It is the basis for essential environmental services upon which life on Earth depends. Thus, its conservation and sustainable use are of critical importance...

  14. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Zurita, Jesús; Cardoso, Anabela; Coronado, Indiana; De la Cadena, Gissela; Jurado-Rivera, José A.; Maes, Jean-Michel; Montelongo, Tinguaro; Nguyen, Dinh Thi; Papadopoulou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this attempt to characterise biodiversity has been incorporating DNA-based characters and molecular taxonomy tools to achieve faster and more efficient species delimitation and identification, even in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. In this assay we advocate for a broad understanding of Biodiversity as the inventory of species in a given environment, but also the diversity of their interactions, with both aspects being attainable using molecular markers and phylogenetic approaches. We exemplify the suitability and utility of this framework for large-scale biodiversity assessment with the results of our ongoing projects trying to characterise the communities of leaf beetles and their host plants in several tropical setups. Moreover, we propose that approaches similar to ours, establishing the inventories of two ecologically inter-related and species-rich groups of organisms, such as insect herbivores and their angiosperm host-plants, can serve as the foundational stone to anchor a comprehensive assessment of diversity, also in tropical environments, by subsequent addition of trophic levels. PMID:27408583

  15. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Zurita, Jesús; Cardoso, Anabela; Coronado, Indiana; De la Cadena, Gissela; Jurado-Rivera, José A; Maes, Jean-Michel; Montelongo, Tinguaro; Nguyen, Dinh Thi; Papadopoulou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this attempt to characterise biodiversity has been incorporating DNA-based characters and molecular taxonomy tools to achieve faster and more efficient species delimitation and identification, even in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. In this assay we advocate for a broad understanding of Biodiversity as the inventory of species in a given environment, but also the diversity of their interactions, with both aspects being attainable using molecular markers and phylogenetic approaches. We exemplify the suitability and utility of this framework for large-scale biodiversity assessment with the results of our ongoing projects trying to characterise the communities of leaf beetles and their host plants in several tropical setups. Moreover, we propose that approaches similar to ours, establishing the inventories of two ecologically inter-related and species-rich groups of organisms, such as insect herbivores and their angiosperm host-plants, can serve as the foundational stone to anchor a comprehensive assessment of diversity, also in tropical environments, by subsequent addition of trophic levels.

  16. Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes M. C. Bustamante; Iris Roitman; T. Mitchell Aide; Ane Alencar; Liana O. Anderson; Luiz Aragao; Gregory P. Asner; Jos Barlow; Erika Berenguer; Jeffrey Chambers; Marcos H. Costa; Thierry Fanin; Laerte G. Ferreira; Joice Ferreira; Michael Keller; William E. Magnusson; Lucia Morales-Barquero; Douglas Morton; Jean P. H. B. Ometto; Michael Palace; Carlos A. Peres; Divino Silverio; Susan Trumbore; Ima C. G. Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks...

  17. Use of ancient sedimentary DNA as a novel conservation tool for high-altitude tropical biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Sanne; McGlynn, Gayle; Epp, Laura S; Taylor, David; Pimentel, Manuel; Gizaw, Abel; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Brochmann, Christian; Popp, Magnus

    2014-04-01

    Conservation of biodiversity may in the future increasingly depend upon the availability of scientific information to set suitable restoration targets. In traditional paleoecology, sediment-based pollen provides a means to define preanthropogenic impact conditions, but problems in establishing the exact provenance and ecologically meaningful levels of taxonomic resolution of the evidence are limiting. We explored the extent to which the use of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) may complement pollen data in reconstructing past alpine environments in the tropics. We constructed a record of afro-alpine plants retrieved from DNA preserved in sediment cores from 2 volcanic crater sites in the Albertine Rift, eastern Africa. The record extended well beyond the onset of substantial anthropogenic effects on tropical mountains. To ensure high-quality taxonomic inference from the sedaDNA sequences, we built an extensive DNA reference library covering the majority of the afro-alpine flora, by sequencing DNA from taxonomically verified specimens. Comparisons with pollen records from the same sediment cores showed that plant diversity recovered with sedaDNA improved vegetation reconstructions based on pollen records by revealing both additional taxa and providing increased taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, combining the 2 measures assisted in distinguishing vegetation change at different geographic scales; sedaDNA almost exclusively reflects local vegetation, whereas pollen can potentially originate from a wide area that in highlands in particular can span several ecozones. Our results suggest that sedaDNA may provide information on restoration targets and the nature and magnitude of human-induced environmental changes, including in high conservation priority, biodiversity hotspots, where understanding of preanthropogenic impact (or reference) conditions is highly limited. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Exploring the natural fungal biodiversity of tropical and temperate forests toward improvement of biomass conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrin, Jean-Guy; Navarro, David; Couturier, Marie; Olivé, Caroline; Grisel, Sacha; Haon, Mireille; Taussac, Sabine; Lechat, Christian; Courtecuisse, Régis; Favel, Anne; Coutinho, Pedro M; Lesage-Meessen, Laurence

    2012-09-01

    In this study, natural fungal diversity in wood-decaying species was explored for biomass deconstruction. In 2007 and 2008, fungal isolates were collected in temperate forests mainly from metropolitan France and in tropical forests mainly from French Guiana. We recovered and identified 74 monomorph cultures using morphological and molecular identification tools. Following production of fungal secretomes under inductive conditions, we evaluated the capacity of these fungal strains to potentiate a commercial Trichoderma reesei cellulase cocktail for the release of soluble sugars from biomass. The secretome of 19 isolates led to an improvement in biomass conversion of at least 23%. Of the isolates, the Trametes gibbosa BRFM 952 (Banque de Ressources Fongiques de Marseille) secretome performed best, with 60% improved conversion, a feature that was not universal to the Trametes and related genera. Enzymatic characterization of the T. gibbosa BRFM 952 secretome revealed an unexpected high activity on crystalline cellulose, higher than that of the T. reesei cellulase cocktail. This report highlights the interest in a systematic high-throughput assessment of collected fungal biodiversity to improve the enzymatic conversion of lignocellulosic biomass. It enabled the unbiased identification of new fungal strains issued from biodiversity with high biotechnological potential.

  19. The invasive Red-vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer) outcompetes native birds in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibault, Martin; Vidal, Eric; Potter, Murray Alan; Sanchez, Thierry; Brescia, Fabrice

    2018-01-01

    Invasive alien species are a major cause of biodiversity loss globally, but especially on islands where high species richness and levels of endemism accentuate their impacts. The Red vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer), a tropical passerine bird that has been introduced widely across locations of high conservation value, is considered an extreme pest. It is currently expanding its range in New Caledonia, one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. Decisive recommendations on management strategies are required urgently to inform local managers and policy makers, but they should be based on quantitative local evidence, not just on expert opinion. The Red-vented bulbul is widely blamed for its impacts on biodiversity, especially through competition. We used data from 2,472 point counts to explore the abundance relationships between the Red-vented bulbul and 14 other species of bird. Our results revealed a negative relationship between the occurrence of the bulbul and the mean abundance of nine species, all native (or endemic, n = 3) to the New Caledonia archipelago. In contrast, the abundance of other introduced species such as Acridotheres tristis (Common myna), Passer domesticus (House sparrow) and Spilopelia chinensis (Spotted dove) were not affected by the Red-vented bulbul. Moreover, temporal trends in the abundance of impacted species suggest that the Red-vented bulbul may cause niche contractions rather than mortality for native species in man-modified habitats. Monitoring and control of the Red-vented bulbul is recommended to prevent on-going impacts on native bird communities throughout New Caledonia, and its impact on native bird communities elsewhere should be quantified.

  20. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward C. Netherlands

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P < 0.01 in the prevalence of parasitaemia was found across species, those semi-aquatic species demonstrating the highest, followed by semi-terrestrial frog species. None of those species described as purely terrestrial and aquatic were infected. Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively. Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity.

  1. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netherlands, Edward C.; Cook, Courtney A.; Kruger, Donnavan J.D.; du Preez, Louis H.; Smit, Nico J.

    2015-01-01

    Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively). Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity. PMID:25830113

  2. The invasive Red-vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer outcompetes native birds in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Thibault

    Full Text Available Invasive alien species are a major cause of biodiversity loss globally, but especially on islands where high species richness and levels of endemism accentuate their impacts. The Red vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer, a tropical passerine bird that has been introduced widely across locations of high conservation value, is considered an extreme pest. It is currently expanding its range in New Caledonia, one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. Decisive recommendations on management strategies are required urgently to inform local managers and policy makers, but they should be based on quantitative local evidence, not just on expert opinion. The Red-vented bulbul is widely blamed for its impacts on biodiversity, especially through competition. We used data from 2,472 point counts to explore the abundance relationships between the Red-vented bulbul and 14 other species of bird. Our results revealed a negative relationship between the occurrence of the bulbul and the mean abundance of nine species, all native (or endemic, n = 3 to the New Caledonia archipelago. In contrast, the abundance of other introduced species such as Acridotheres tristis (Common myna, Passer domesticus (House sparrow and Spilopelia chinensis (Spotted dove were not affected by the Red-vented bulbul. Moreover, temporal trends in the abundance of impacted species suggest that the Red-vented bulbul may cause niche contractions rather than mortality for native species in man-modified habitats. Monitoring and control of the Red-vented bulbul is recommended to prevent on-going impacts on native bird communities throughout New Caledonia, and its impact on native bird communities elsewhere should be quantified.

  3. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netherlands, Edward C; Cook, Courtney A; Kruger, Donnavan J D; du Preez, Louis H; Smit, Nico J

    2015-04-01

    Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P frog species. None of those species described as purely terrestrial and aquatic were infected. Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively). Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity.

  4. Rapid Diversification and Time Explain Amphibian Richness at Different Scales in the Tropical Andes, Earth's Most Biodiverse Hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutter, Carl R; Lambert, Shea M; Wiens, John J

    2017-12-01

    The Tropical Andes make up Earth's most species-rich biodiversity hotspot for both animals and plants. Nevertheless, the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying this extraordinary richness remain uncertain. Here, we examine the processes that generate high richness in the Tropical Andes relative to other regions in South America and across different elevations within the Andes, using frogs as a model system. We combine distributional data, a newly generated time-calibrated phylogeny for 2,318 frog species, and phylogenetic comparative methods to test the relative importance of diversification rates and colonization times for explaining Andean diversity at different scales. At larger scales (among regions and families), we find that faster diversification rates in Andean clades most likely explain high Andean richness. In contrast, at smaller temporal and spatial scales (within family-level clades within the Andes), diversification rates rarely explain richness patterns. Instead, we show that colonization times are important for shaping elevational richness patterns within the Andes, with more species found in habitats colonized earlier. We suggest that these scale-dependent patterns might apply to many other richness gradients. Recognition of this scale dependence may help to reconcile conflicting results among studies of richness patterns across habitats, regions, and organisms.

  5. Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

  6. Tropical geometry of statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

  7. Species undersampling in tropical bat surveys: effects on emerging biodiversity patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Christoph F J; Aguiar, Ludmilla M S; Aguirre, Luis F; Baumgarten, Julio; Clarke, Frank M; Cosson, Jean-François; Estrada Villegas, Sergio; Fahr, Jakob; Faria, Deborah; Furey, Neil; Henry, Mickaël; Jenkins, Richard K B; Kunz, Thomas H; Cristina MacSwiney González, M; Moya, Isabel; Pons, Jean-Marc; Racey, Paul A; Rex, Katja; Sampaio, Erica M; Stoner, Kathryn E; Voigt, Christian C; von Staden, Dietrich; Weise, Christa D; Kalko, Elisabeth K V

    2015-01-01

    Undersampling is commonplace in biodiversity surveys of species-rich tropical assemblages in which rare taxa abound, with possible repercussions for our ability to implement surveys and monitoring programmes in a cost-effective way. We investigated the consequences of information loss due to species undersampling (missing subsets of species from the full species pool) in tropical bat surveys for the emerging patterns of species richness (SR) and compositional variation across sites. For 27 bat assemblage data sets from across the tropics, we used correlations between original data sets and subsets with different numbers of species deleted either at random, or according to their rarity in the assemblage, to assess to what extent patterns in SR and composition in data subsets are congruent with those in the initial data set. We then examined to what degree high sample representativeness (r ≥ 0·8) was influenced by biogeographic region, sampling method, sampling effort or structural assemblage characteristics. For SR, correlations between random subsets and original data sets were strong (r ≥ 0·8) with moderate (ca. 20%) species loss. Bias associated with information loss was greater for species composition; on average ca. 90% of species in random subsets had to be retained to adequately capture among-site variation. For nonrandom subsets, removing only the rarest species (on average c. 10% of the full data set) yielded strong correlations (r > 0·95) for both SR and composition. Eliminating greater proportions of rare species resulted in weaker correlations and large variation in the magnitude of observed correlations among data sets. Species subsets that comprised ca. 85% of the original set can be considered reliable surrogates, capable of adequately revealing patterns of SR and temporal or spatial turnover in many tropical bat assemblages. Our analyses thus demonstrate the potential as well as limitations for reducing survey effort and streamlining

  8. Palaeo-precipitation is a major determinant of palm species richness patterns across Madagascar: a tropical biodiversity hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Baker, William J.; Dransfield, John; Moat, Justin; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    The distribution of rainforest in many regions across the Earth was strongly affected by Pleistocene ice ages. However, the extent to which these dynamics are still important for modern-day biodiversity patterns within tropical biodiversity hotspots has not been assessed. We employ a comprehensive dataset of Madagascan palms (Arecaceae) and climate reconstructions from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) to assess the relative role of modern environment and LGM climate in explaining geographical species richness patterns in this major tropical biodiversity hotspot. We found that palaeoclimate exerted a strong influence on palm species richness patterns, with richness peaking in areas with higher LGM precipitation relative to present-day even after controlling for modern environment, in particular in northeastern Madagascar, consistent with the persistence of tropical rainforest during the LGM primarily in this region. Our results provide evidence that diversity patterns in the World's most biodiverse regions may be shaped by long-term climate history as well as contemporary environment. PMID:23427173

  9. Biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Giraldo; Luis Jair

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity is a really surprising ecological event, as long as there is an extraordinary chemical and biochemical homogeneity at the very foundation of all living beings. It is believed that there are at least three phenomena that may explain it: Darwinian evolution, that is a kind of ramifying evolution; structural coupling, as defined by H. Maturana; and, finally, thermodynamical phenomena, as presented by S. Kauffman leaning on the concepts of organization and a propagating organization that diversifies, and they are all interpreted by E. D. Schneider and J. J. Kay from the idea of Earth as a thermodynamical system. The explanatory importance of this idea in the current environmental crisis, evident in other events such as global warming, is of great relevance.

  10. Biogeochemistry and biodiversity interact to govern N2 fixers (Fabaceae) across Amazon tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterman, Sarah; Hedin, Lars; Lloyd, Jon; Quesada, Beto

    2015-04-01

    Dinitrogen (N2)-fixing trees in the Fabaceae fulfill a central role in tropical rainforests by supplying nitrogen from the atmosphere, yet whether they will support a forest CO2 sink in the future by alleviating nitrogen limitation may depend on whether and how they are controlled by local environmental conditions. Theory predicts that soil nutrients govern the function of N2 fixers, yet there have been no large-scale field-based tests of this idea. Moreover, recent findings indicate that N2-fixing species behave differently in biogeochemical cycles, suggesting that any environmental control may differ by species, and that the diversity of N2-fixing trees may be critical for ensuring tropical forest function. In this talk, we will use the RAINFOR dataset of 108 (~1.0 ha) lowland tropical rainforest plots from across the Amazon Basin to test whether the abundance and diversity of N2-fixing trees are controlled by soil nutrient availability (i.e., increasing with phosphorus and decreasing with nitrogen), or if fixer abundance and diversity simply follow the dynamics of all tree species. We also test an alternative - but not mutually exclusive - hypothesis that the governing factor for fixers is forest disturbance. Results show a surprising lack of control by local nutrients or disturbance on the abundance or diversity of N2 fixers. The dominant driver of fixer diversity was the total number of tree species, with fixers comprising 10% of all species in a forest plot (R2 = 0.75, linear regression). When considering the dominant taxa of N2 fixers (Inga, Swartzia, Tachigali) alone, environmental factors (nitrogen, phosphorus and disturbance) became important and clearly governed their abundance. These taxa, which contain >60% of N2-fixing trees in the data set, appear to have evolved to specialize in different local environmental conditions. The strong biogeochemistry-by-biodiversity interaction observed here points to a need to consider individual species or taxa of N2

  11. Phylogenies support out-of-equilibrium models of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Marc; Lambert, Amaury; Morlon, Hélène

    2015-04-01

    There is a long tradition in ecology of studying models of biodiversity at equilibrium. These models, including the influential Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, have been successful at predicting major macroecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions. But they have failed to predict macroevolutionary patterns, such as those captured in phylogenetic trees. Here, we develop a model of biodiversity in which all individuals have identical demographic rates, metacommunity size is allowed to vary stochastically according to population dynamics, and speciation arises naturally from the accumulation of point mutations. We show that this model generates phylogenies matching those observed in nature if the metacommunity is out of equilibrium. We develop a likelihood inference framework that allows fitting our model to empirical phylogenies, and apply this framework to various mammalian families. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that biodiversity dynamics are out of equilibrium. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  12. Forests and drugs: coca-driven deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávalos, Liliana M; Bejarano, Adriana C; Hall, Mark A; Correa, H Leonardo; Corthals, Angelique; Espejo, Oscar J

    2011-02-15

    Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.

  13. Limited sampling hampers "big data" estimation of species richness in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engemann, Kristine; Enquist, Brian J; Sandel, Brody; Boyle, Brad; Jørgensen, Peter M; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Peet, Robert K; Violle, Cyrille; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2015-02-01

    Macro-scale species richness studies often use museum specimens as their main source of information. However, such datasets are often strongly biased due to variation in sampling effort in space and time. These biases may strongly affect diversity estimates and may, thereby, obstruct solid inference on the underlying diversity drivers, as well as mislead conservation prioritization. In recent years, this has resulted in an increased focus on developing methods to correct for sampling bias. In this study, we use sample-size-correcting methods to examine patterns of tropical plant diversity in Ecuador, one of the most species-rich and climatically heterogeneous biodiversity hotspots. Species richness estimates were calculated based on 205,735 georeferenced specimens of 15,788 species using the Margalef diversity index, the Chao estimator, the second-order Jackknife and Bootstrapping resampling methods, and Hill numbers and rarefaction. Species richness was heavily correlated with sampling effort, and only rarefaction was able to remove this effect, and we recommend this method for estimation of species richness with "big data" collections.

  14. Biodiversity hanging by a thread: the importance of fungal litter-trapping systems in tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snaddon, Jake L.; Turner, Edgar C.; Fayle, Tom M.; Khen, Chey V.; Eggleton, Paul; Foster, William A.

    2012-01-01

    The exceptionally high species richness of arthropods in tropical rainforests hinges on the complexity of the forest itself: that is, on features such as the high plant diversity, the layered nature of the canopy and the abundance and the diversity of epiphytes and litter. We here report on one important, but almost completely neglected, piece of this complex jigsaw—the intricate network of rhizomorph-forming fungi that ramify through the vegetation of the lower canopy and intercept falling leaf litter. We show that this litter-trapping network is abundant and intercepts substantial amounts of litter (257.3 kg ha−1): this exceeds the amount of material recorded in any other rainforest litter-trapping system. Experimental removal of this fungal network resulted in a dramatic reduction in both the abundance (decreased by 70.2 ± 4.1%) and morphospecies richness (decreased by 57.4 ± 5.1%) of arthropods. Since the lower canopy levels can contain the highest densities of arthropods, the proportion of the rainforest fauna dependent on the fungal networks is likely to be substantial. Fungal litter-trapping systems are therefore a crucial component of habitat complexity, providing a vital resource that contributes significantly to rainforest biodiversity. PMID:22188674

  15. Environmental sustainability model and biodiversity preservation in Central Rhodopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Grigorova

    2013-03-01

    In fact that model is composed of many components and considers a number of important aspects. Its application will contribute to the sustainable use of natural resources and preserved biodiversity for future generations.

  16. Marine biodiversity of an Eastern Tropical Pacific oceanic island, Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco (also known as Cocos Island is an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; it is part of the largest national park of Costa Rica and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The island has been visited since the 16th Century due to its abundance of freshwater and wood. Marine biodiversity studies of the island started in the late 19th Century, with an intense period of research in the 1930’s, and again from the mid 1990’s to the present. The information is scattered and, in some cases, in old publications that are difficult to access. Here I have compiled published records of the marine organisms of the island. At least 1688 species are recorded, with the gastropods (383 species, bony fishes (354 spp. and crustaceans (at least 263 spp. being the most species-rich groups; 45 species are endemic to Isla del Coco National Park (2.7% of the total. The number of species per kilometer of coastline and by square kilometer of seabed shallower than 200m deep are the highest recorded in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Although the marine biodiversity of Isla del Coco is relatively well known, there are regions that need more exploration, for example, the south side, the pelagic environments, and deeper waters. Also, several groups of organisms, such as the flatworms, nematodes, nemerteans, and gelatinous zooplankton, have been observed around the Island but have been poorly studied or not at all.La Isla del Coco es una isla oceánica en el Pacífico Tropical Oriental; es parte del Parque Nacional más grande de Costa Rica y es un sitio de Patrimonio Mundial. La isla ha sido visitada desde el Siglo XVI por su abundancia de agua dulce y árboles. Estudios de biodiversidad marina de la isla empezaron a finales del Siglo XIX, con un intenso período de investigación en la década de 1930, y de nuevo desde mediados de la década de 1990 al presente. La información sobre organismos marinos se encuentra dispersa y en algunos casos en publicaciones

  17. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  18. Spatial patterns of degraded tropical forest and biodiversity restoration over 70-years of succession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet E. Nichol

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Landscape metrics have often been used to analyse the spatial dynamics of habitat fragmentation accompanying forest loss. However, there are few studies of the spatial dynamics of natural forest succession, especially over periods longer than the operational period of imaging satellites. This study applies spatial metrics to understand the spatial processes of a 70-year tropical secondary forest succession in Hong Kong, since World War 2. The highest rate of forest regeneration at 11% a year from 1989 to 2001 occurred when the landscape achieved greatest habitat diversity and juxtapositioning of habitat patches. This rapid regeneration occurred by infilling from remnant forest in adjacent valleys rather than by an advance along a broad forest front, and led to simplification of the landscape and declining habitat diversity. It was also accompanied by declines in species richness and abundance in regenerated forest patches. Thus both habitat and woody plant species diversity show a humped trend over the successional period as disconnected forest patches amalgamate, and shade-intolerant pioneers are shaded out by taller pioneers. From this point onwards, the birds of mixed habitats including bulbuls and hwamei known to disperse seed in the study area, may become less effective as forest patches consolidate, and only a few forest mammals remain. The observed improved connectivity within forest patches and reduced edge disturbances accompanying landscape simplification provide better conditions for dispersion within forest of light-intolerant climax species from the oldest, species-rich valley sites to the newly regenerated areas. However, in addition to the loss of forest dispersal agents, other natural dispersal agents such as gravity, flash floods and slope wash involving downward processes may be ineffective, as forest has regenerated upwards to higher elevations. Progression to a mature, biodiverse and stable forest ecosystem may depend on

  19. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

    2014-07-01

    The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

  20. Diversity and host range of foliar fungal endophytes: are tropical leaves biodiversity hotspots?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, A Elizabeth; Lutzoni, F

    2007-03-01

    Fungal endophytes are found in asymptomatic photosynthetic tissues of all major lineages of land plants. The ubiquity of these cryptic symbionts is clear, but the scale of their diversity, host range, and geographic distributions are unknown. To explore the putative hyperdiversity of tropical leaf endophytes, we compared endophyte communities along a broad latitudinal gradient from the Canadian arctic to the lowland tropical forest of central Panama. Here, we use molecular sequence data from 1403 endophyte strains to show that endophytes increase in incidence, diversity, and host breadth from arctic to tropical sites. Endophyte communities from higher latitudes are characterized by relatively few species from many different classes of Ascomycota, whereas tropical endophyte assemblages are dominated by a small number of classes with a very large number of endophytic species. The most easily cultivated endophytes from tropical plants have wide host ranges, but communities are dominated by a large number of rare species whose host range is unclear. Even when only the most easily cultured species are considered, leaves of tropical trees represent hotspots of fungal species diversity, containing numerous species not yet recovered from other biomes. The challenge remains to recover and identify those elusive and rarely cultured taxa with narrower host ranges, and to elucidate the ecological roles of these little-known symbionts in tropical forests.

  1. Limited sampling hampers “big data” estimation of species richness in a tropical biodiversity hotspot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engemann, Kristine; Enquist, Brian J.; Sandel, Brody Steven

    2015-01-01

    in Ecuador, one of the most species-rich and climatically heterogeneous biodiversity hotspots. Species richness estimates were calculated based on 205,735 georeferenced specimens of 15,788 species using the Margalef diversity index, the Chao estimator, the second-order Jackknife and Bootstrapping resampling...

  2. Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C. A.

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

  3. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands: Implications for the management of plant biodiversity along differential environmental gradient in the Yellow River of Henan Province in the spring.

  4. Can Community Members Identify Tropical Tree Species for REDD+ Carbon and Biodiversity Measurements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Mingxu; Brofeldt, Søren; Li, Qiaohong; Xu, Jianchu; Danielsen, Finn; Læssøe, Simon Bjarke Lægaard; Poulsen, Michael Køie; Gottlieb, Anna; Maxwell, James Franklin; Theilade, Ida

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation is a required co-benefit of REDD+. Biodiversity monitoring is therefore needed, yet in most areas it will be constrained by limitations in the available human professional and financial resources. REDD+ programs that use forest plots for biomass monitoring may be able to take advantage of the same data for detecting changes in the tree diversity, using the richness and abundance of canopy trees as a proxy for biodiversity. If local community members are already assessing the above-ground biomass in a representative network of forest vegetation plots, it may require minimal further effort to collect data on the diversity of trees. We compare community members and trained scientists' data on tree diversity in permanent vegetation plots in montane forest in Yunnan, China. We show that local community members here can collect tree diversity data of comparable quality to trained botanists, at one third the cost. Without access to herbaria, identification guides or the Internet, community members could provide the ethno-taxonomical names for 95% of 1071 trees in 60 vegetation plots. Moreover, we show that the community-led survey spent 89% of the expenses at village level as opposed to 23% of funds in the monitoring by botanists. In participatory REDD+ programs in areas where community members demonstrate great knowledge of forest trees, community-based collection of tree diversity data can be a cost-effective approach for obtaining tree diversity information.

  5. The relationship between tree biodiversity and biomass dynamics changes with tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R; Uriarte, María; Boukili, Vanessa K; Erickson, David L; John Kress, W; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-09-01

    Theory predicts shifts in the magnitude and direction of biodiversity effects on ecosystem function (BEF) over succession, but this theory remains largely untested. We studied the relationship between aboveground tree biomass dynamics (Δbiomass) and multiple dimensions of biodiversity over 8-16 years in eight successional rainforests. We tested whether successional changes in diversity-Δbiomass correlations reflect predictions of niche theories. Diversity-Δbiomass correlations were positive early but weak later in succession, suggesting saturation of niche space with increasing diversity. Early in succession, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity in two leaf traits exhibited the strongest positive correlations with Δbiomass, indicating complementarity or positive selection effects. In mid-successional stands, high biodiversity was associated with greater mortality-driven biomass loss, i.e. negative selection effects, suggesting successional niche trade-offs and loss of fast-growing pioneer species. Our results demonstrate that BEF relationships are dynamic across succession, thus successional context is essential to understanding BEF in a given system. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  6. Can Community Members Identify Tropical Tree Species for REDD+ Carbon and Biodiversity Measurements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxu Zhao

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation is a required co-benefit of REDD+. Biodiversity monitoring is therefore needed, yet in most areas it will be constrained by limitations in the available human professional and financial resources. REDD+ programs that use forest plots for biomass monitoring may be able to take advantage of the same data for detecting changes in the tree diversity, using the richness and abundance of canopy trees as a proxy for biodiversity. If local community members are already assessing the above-ground biomass in a representative network of forest vegetation plots, it may require minimal further effort to collect data on the diversity of trees. We compare community members and trained scientists' data on tree diversity in permanent vegetation plots in montane forest in Yunnan, China. We show that local community members here can collect tree diversity data of comparable quality to trained botanists, at one third the cost. Without access to herbaria, identification guides or the Internet, community members could provide the ethno-taxonomical names for 95% of 1071 trees in 60 vegetation plots. Moreover, we show that the community-led survey spent 89% of the expenses at village level as opposed to 23% of funds in the monitoring by botanists. In participatory REDD+ programs in areas where community members demonstrate great knowledge of forest trees, community-based collection of tree diversity data can be a cost-effective approach for obtaining tree diversity information.

  7. Biodiversity and functional regeneration during secondary succession in a tropical dry forest: from microorganisms to mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    do Espírito Santo, M. M.; Neves, F. S.; Valério, H. M.; Leite, L. O.; Falcão, L. A.; Borges, M.; Beirão, M.; Reis, R., Jr.; Berbara, R.; Nunes, Y. R.; Silva, A.; Silva, L. F.; Siqueira, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we aimed to determine the changes on soil traits, forest structure and species richness and composition of multiple groups of organisms along secondary succession in a tropical dry forest (TDF) in southeastern Brazil. We defined three successional stages based in forest vertical and horizontal structure and age: early (18-25 years), intermediate (50-60 years) and late (no records of clearing). Five plots of 50 x 20 m were established per stage, and the following groups were sampled using specific techniques: rhizobacteria, mycorrhiza, trees and lianas, butterflies, ants, dung beetles, mosquitoes (Culicidae), birds and bats. We also determined soil chemical and physical characteristics and forest structure (tree height, density and basal area). Soil fertility increased along the successional gradient, and the same pattern was observed for all the forest structure variables. However, species richness and composition showed mixed results depending on the organism group. Three groups usually considered as good bioindicators of habitat quality did not differ in species richness and composition between stages: butterflies, ants and dung beetles. On the other hand, rizhobacteria and mycorrhiza differed both in species richness and composition between stages and may be more sensitive to changes in environmental conditions in TDFs. The other five groups differed either in species richness or composition between one or two pairs of successional stages. Although changes in abiotic conditions and forest structure match the predictions of classical successional models, the response of each group of organism is idiosyncratic in terms of diversity and ecological function, as a consequence of specific resource requirements and life-history traits. In general, diversity increased and functional groups changed mostly from early to intermediate-late stages, strengthening the importance of secondary forests to the maintenance of ecosystem integrity of TDFs.

  8. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages. PMID:26731271

  9. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages.

  10. Long-term insitu persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Xue, Alexander T.; Moreno-Letelier, Alejandra

    2018-01-01

    Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (1) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation...

  11. The value of biodiversity for the functioning of tropical forests: insurance effects during the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Michael J.; Philipson, Christopher D.; Saner, Philippe; Tanadini, Matteo; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; Godoong, Elia; Nilus, Reuben; Ong, Robert C.; Schmid, Bernhard; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L.; Snoep, Martijn; Tangki, Hamzah; Tay, John; Ulok, Philip; Wai, Yap Sau; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen

    2016-01-01

    One of the main environmental threats in the tropics is selective logging, which has degraded large areas of forest. In southeast Asia, enrichment planting with seedlings of the dominant group of dipterocarp tree species aims to accelerate restoration of forest structure and functioning. The role of tree diversity in forest restoration is still unclear, but the ‘insurance hypothesis’ predicts that in temporally and spatially varying environments planting mixtures may stabilize functioning owing to differences in species traits and ecologies. To test for potential insurance effects, we analyse the patterns of seedling mortality and growth in monoculture and mixture plots over the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment. Our results reveal the species differences required for potential insurance effects including a trade-off in which species with denser wood have lower growth rates but higher survival. This trade-off was consistent over time during the first decade, but growth and mortality varied spatially across our 500 ha experiment with species responding to changing conditions in different ways. Overall, average survival rates were extreme in monocultures than mixtures consistent with a potential insurance effect in which monocultures of poorly surviving species risk recruitment failure, whereas monocultures of species with high survival have rates of self-thinning that are potentially wasteful when seedling stocks are limited. Longer-term monitoring as species interactions strengthen will be needed to more comprehensively test to what degree mixtures of species spread risk and use limited seedling stocks more efficiently to increase diversity and restore ecosystem structure and functioning. PMID:27928046

  12. Spatial patterns of biodiversity conservation in a multiregional general equilibrium model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2009-01-01

    Migration dynamics and local biodiversity are interrelated in a way that is likely to affect patterns of regional specialisation. We assess this relationship with a New Economic Geography model that has been extended with biodiversity. Biodiversity is heterogeneous, and responds to habitat

  13. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilia Valli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery.

  14. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valli, Marilia; Pivatto, Marcos; Danuello, Amanda; Castro-Gamboa, Ian; Silva, Dulce Helena Siqueira; Cavalheiro, Alberto Jose; Araujo, Angela Regina; Furlan, Maysa; Lopes, Marcia Nasser; Bolzani, Vanderlan da Silva, E-mail: bolzaniv@iq.unesp.br [UNESP, Araraquara, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica. Dept. de Quimica Organica

    2012-07-01

    The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery. (author)

  15. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valli, Marilia; Pivatto, Marcos; Danuello, Amanda; Castro-Gamboa, Ian; Silva, Dulce Helena Siqueira; Cavalheiro, Alberto Jose; Araujo, Angela Regina; Furlan, Maysa; Lopes, Marcia Nasser; Bolzani, Vanderlan da Silva

    2012-01-01

    The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery. (author)

  16. Can community members identify tropical tree species for REDD+ carbon and biodiversity measurements?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Mingxu; Brofeldt, Søren; Li, Qiaohong

    2016-01-01

    to take advantage of the same data for detecting changes in the tree diversity, using the richness and abundance of canopy trees as a proxy for biodiversity. If local community members are already assessing the above-ground biomass in a representative network of forest vegetation plots, it may require...... minimal further effort to collect data on the diversity of trees. We compare community members and trained scientists' data on tree diversity in permanent vegetation plots in montane forest in Yunnan, China. We show that local community members here can collect tree diversity data of comparable quality...... to trained botanists, at one third the cost. Without access to herbaria, identification guides or the Internet, community members could provide the ethno-taxonomical names for 95% of 1071 trees in 60 vegetation plots. Moreover, we show that the community-led survey spent 89% of the expenses at village level...

  17. Tradeoffs between income, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning during tropical rainforest conversion and agroforestry intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Kessler, Michael; Barkmann, Jan; Bos, Merijn M; Buchori, Damayanti; Erasmi, Stefan; Faust, Heiko; Gerold, Gerhard; Glenk, Klaus; Gradstein, S Robbert; Guhardja, Edi; Harteveld, Marieke; Hertel, Dietrich; Höhn, Patrick; Kappas, Martin; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Maertens, Miet; Marggraf, Rainer; Migge-Kleian, Sonja; Mogea, Johanis; Pitopang, Ramadhaniel; Schaefer, Matthias; Schwarze, Stefan; Sporn, Simone G; Steingrebe, Andrea; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S; Tjitrosoemito, Soekisman; Twele, André; Weber, Robert; Woltmann, Lars; Zeller, Manfred; Tscharntke, Teja

    2007-03-20

    Losses of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning due to rainforest destruction and agricultural intensification are prime concerns for science and society alike. Potentially, ecosystems show nonlinear responses to land-use intensification that would open management options with limited ecological losses but satisfying economic gains. However, multidisciplinary studies to quantify ecological losses and socioeconomic tradeoffs under different management options are rare. Here, we evaluate opposing land use strategies in cacao agroforestry in Sulawesi, Indonesia, by using data on species richness of nine plant and animal taxa, six related ecosystem functions, and on socioeconomic drivers of agroforestry expansion. Expansion of cacao cultivation by 230% in the last two decades was triggered not only by economic market mechanisms, but also by rarely considered cultural factors. Transformation from near-primary forest to agroforestry had little effect on overall species richness, but reduced plant biomass and carbon storage by approximately 75% and species richness of forest-using species by approximately 60%. In contrast, increased land use intensity in cacao agroforestry, coupled with a reduction in shade tree cover from 80% to 40%, caused only minor quantitative changes in biodiversity and maintained high levels of ecosystem functioning while doubling farmers' net income. However, unshaded systems further increased income by approximately 40%, implying that current economic incentives and cultural preferences for new intensification practices put shaded systems at risk. We conclude that low-shade agroforestry provides the best available compromise between economic forces and ecological needs. Certification schemes for shade-grown crops may provide a market-based mechanism to slow down current intensification trends.

  18. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  19. Modelling nutrient management in tropical cropping systems

    OpenAIRE

    Delve, R. (ed.); Probert, M. (ed.)

    2004-01-01

    Metadata only record In tropical regions, organic materials are often more important than fertilizers in maintaining soil fertility, yet fertilizer recommendations and most crop models are unable to take account of the level and quality of organic inputs that farmers use. Computer simulation models, such as the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) developed by CSIRO and the Queensland Department of Primary Industries, have proven their value in many cropping environments. Thes...

  20. Evolutionary persistence in Gunnera and the contribution of southern plant groups to the tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine D. Bacon

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have demonstrated the contribution of northern immigrants to the flora of the tropical Andes—the world’s richest and most diverse biodiversity hotspot. However, much less is known about the biogeographic history and diversification of Andean groups with southern origins, although it has been suggested that northern and southern groups have contributed roughly equally to the high Andean (i.e., páramo flora. Here we infer the evolutionary history of the southern hemisphere plant genus Gunnera, a lineage with a rich fossil history and an important ecological role as an early colonising species characteristic of wet, montane environments. Our results show striking contrasts in species diversification, where some species may have persisted for some 90 million years, and whereas others date to less than 2 Ma since origination. The outstanding longevity of the group is likely linked to a high degree of niche conservatism across its highly disjunct range, whereby Gunnera tracks damp and boggy soils in cool habitats. Colonisation of the northern Andes is related to Quaternary climate change, with subsequent rapid diversification appearing to be driven by their ability to take advantage of environmental opportunities. This study demonstrates the composite origin of a mega-diverse biota.

  1. Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

    2006-01-01

    Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

  2. Quantifying the Relative Importance of Climate and Habitat on Structuring the Species and Taxonomic Diversity of Aquatic Plants in a Biodiversity Hotspot of Tropical Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y.

    2015-01-01

    It has not been well known how climate and habitat variables will influence the distribution of plant species to some extents at mesoscale. In this report, by using the distribution of aquatic plants in Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot in tropical Asian region, I quantify the relative importance of climate and habitat variables on structuring spatially species richness and taxonomic diversity patterns using structural equation modeling. All the sampling qudrats in the region used for the study has a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude x 0.5 longitude. The results showed that species richness is high in both northern and southern part of the region, while low in the middle part. In contrast, taxonomic distinctiveness is relatively homogeneous over all the sampling quadrats in the region. Structural equation modeling suggested that taxonomic distinctiveness patterns of aquatic plants in the region follow temperature (partial regression coefficient=0.31, p<0.05) and elevational (partial regression coefficient=0.31, p<0.05) gradients, while richness patterns cannot be explained by any of the currently used variables. In conclusion, environmental variables that are related to taxonomic distinctiveness would not be related to richness, given the fact that these two quantities are orthogonal more or less. Both climate and habitat are equally influential on taxonomic distinctiveness patterns for aquatic plants in Western Ghats of India. (author)

  3. Modelling avian biodiversity using raw, unclassified satellite imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Louis, Véronique; Pidgeon, Anna M; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Radeloff, Volker C; Clayton, Murray K; Locke, Brian A; Bash, Dallas; Hostert, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Applications of remote sensing for biodiversity conservation typically rely on image classifications that do not capture variability within coarse land cover classes. Here, we compare two measures derived from unclassified remotely sensed data, a measure of habitat heterogeneity and a measure of habitat composition, for explaining bird species richness and the spatial distribution of 10 species in a semi-arid landscape of New Mexico. We surveyed bird abundance from 1996 to 1998 at 42 plots located in the McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Army Reserve. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values of two May 1997 Landsat scenes were the basis for among-pixel habitat heterogeneity (image texture), and we used the raw imagery to decompose each pixel into different habitat components (spectral mixture analysis). We used model averaging to relate measures of avian biodiversity to measures of image texture and spectral mixture analysis fractions. Measures of habitat heterogeneity, particularly angular second moment and standard deviation, provide higher explanatory power for bird species richness and the abundance of most species than measures of habitat composition. Using image texture, alone or in combination with other classified imagery-based approaches, for monitoring statuses and trends in biological diversity can greatly improve conservation efforts and habitat management.

  4. Can nearby eutrophic reservoirs sustain a differentiated biodiversity of planktonic microcrustaceans in a tropical semiarid basin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Leidiane P; Melo-Júnior, Mauro DE

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims to compare alpha and beta diversities of planktonic microcrustaceans from three reservoirs located nearby in a tropical semiarid basin. Our hypothesis was that alpha and beta diversities of the community are different, although the ecosystems are located close to each other. We carried out two sampling campaigns: dry and rainy seasons. The sampling of microcrustaceans and environmental variables (dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a and nutrient) was performed at twelve stations and were distributed throughout the three zones (river, transition, and lacustrine), using a plankton net (45 µm). The reservoirs showed different uses and types of nitrogen predominance: Cachoeira (supply/nitrate), Borborema (sewage/ammonia) and Saco (aquaculture/ammonia). Seventeen species were recorded whose richness was assessed as particularly specific to each one of the studied reservoirs. Seasonally, both reservoirs with high anthropogenic alteration showed greater richness in the dry season. The three reservoirs located in a same basin showed different richness and composition, but the diversity did not differ between the zones of the reservoirs. Although communities are close to each other, their composition and richness were found to be distinct for each reservoir. This may be in response to the peculiar particularities, such as nitrogen sources and the different uses.

  5. Can nearby eutrophic reservoirs sustain a differentiated biodiversity of planktonic microcrustaceans in a tropical semiarid basin?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEIDIANE P. DINIZ

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper aims to compare alpha and beta diversities of planktonic microcrustaceans from three reservoirs located nearby in a tropical semiarid basin. Our hypothesis was that alpha and beta diversities of the community are different, although the ecosystems are located close to each other. We carried out two sampling campaigns: dry and rainy seasons. The sampling of microcrustaceans and environmental variables (dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a and nutrient was performed at twelve stations and were distributed throughout the three zones (river, transition, and lacustrine, using a plankton net (45 µm. The reservoirs showed different uses and types of nitrogen predominance: Cachoeira (supply/nitrate, Borborema (sewage/ammonia and Saco (aquaculture/ammonia. Seventeen species were recorded whose richness was assessed as particularly specific to each one of the studied reservoirs. Seasonally, both reservoirs with high anthropogenic alteration showed greater richness in the dry season. The three reservoirs located in a same basin showed different richness and composition, but the diversity did not differ between the zones of the reservoirs. Although communities are close to each other, their composition and richness were found to be distinct for each reservoir. This may be in response to the peculiar particularities, such as nitrogen sources and the different uses.

  6. Lattice-work corridors for climate change: a conceptual framework for biodiversity conservation and social-ecological resilience in a tropical elevational gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Townsend

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid climate change poses complex challenges for conservation, especially in tropical developing countries where biodiversity is high while financial and technical resources are limited. The complexity is heightened by uncertainty in predicted effects, both for ecological systems and human communities that depend heavily on natural resource extraction and use. Effective conservation plans and measures must be inexpensive, fast-acting, and able to increase the resilience of both the ecosystem and the social-ecological system. We present conservation practitioners with a framework that strategically integrates climate change planning into connectivity measures for tropical mountain ecosystems in Costa Rica. We propose a strategy for doubling the amount of habitat currently protected in riparian corridors using measures that are relatively low cost and fast-acting, and will employ and expand human capital. We argue that habitat connectivity must be enhanced along latitudinal gradients, but also within the same elevational bands, via a lattice-work corridor system. This is needed to facilitate range shifts for mobile species and evolutionary adaptation for less mobile species. We think that conservation measures within the elevational bands must include conservation-friendly land uses that improve current and future human livelihoods under dynamic conditions. Key components include community involvement, habitat priority-setting, forest landscape restoration, and environmental services payments. Our approach is fundamentally adaptive in that the conservation measures employed are informed by on-the-ground successes and failures and modified accordingly, but are relatively low risk and fast-acting. Our proposal, if implemented, would satisfy tenets of climate-smart conservation, improve the resilience of human and ecological communities, and be a model for other locations facing similar challenges.

  7. An ecosystem services perspective for the oceanic eastern tropical Pacific: commercial fisheries, carbon storage, recreational fishing, and biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer Lynn Martin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The ocean provides ecosystem services (ES that support humanity. Traditional single-issue management largely failed to protect the full suite of ES. Ecosystem-based management (EBM promotes resilient social-ecological systems that provide ES. To implement EBM, an ES approach is useful: 1 characterize major ES provided (magnitude, geographic extent, monetary value, trends, and stakeholders, 2 identify trade-offs, 3 determine desired outcomes, and 4 manage anthropogenic activities accordingly. Here we apply the ES approach (steps 1-2 to an open ocean ecosystem, the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP, an area of 21 million km2 that includes waters of 12 nations and the oceanic commons, using 35 years (1975-2010 of fisheries and economic data, and 20 years (1986-2006 of ship-based survey data. We examined commercial fisheries, carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreational fishing as the major provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ES, respectively. Average catch value (using U.S. import prices for fish for the 10 most commercially fished species was $2.7 billion yr-1. The value of carbon export to the deep ocean was $12.9 billion yr-1 (using average European carbon market prices. For two fisheries-depleted dolphin populations, the potential value of rebuilding carbon stores was $1.6 million (cumulative; for exploited fish stocks it was also $1.6 million (an estimated reduction of 544,000 mt. Sport fishing expenditures totaled $1.2 billion yr-1, from studies of three popular destinations. These initial, conservative estimates do not represent a complete summary of ETP ES values. We produced species richness maps for cetaceans, seabirds, and ichthyoplankton, and a sightings density map for marine turtles. Over 1/3 of cetacean, seabird, and marine turtle species occur in the ETP, and diversity (or density hotspots are widespread. This study fills several gaps in the assessment of marine and coastal ES by focusing on an oceanic habitat

  8. The spatial limitations of current neutral models of biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rampal S Etienne

    Full Text Available The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a 'fat-tailed' distribution. Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed.

  9. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  10. Evolution of body size, vision, and biodiversity of coral-associated organisms: evidence from fossil crustaceans in cold-water coral and tropical coral ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klompmaker, Adiël A; Jakobsen, Sten L; Lauridsen, Bodil W

    2016-06-16

    Modern cold-water coral and tropical coral environments harbor a highly diverse and ecologically important macrofauna of crustaceans that face elevated extinction risks due to reef decline. The effect of environmental conditions acting on decapod crustaceans comparing these two habitats is poorly understood today and in deep time. Here, we compare the biodiversity, eye socket height as a proxy for eye size, and body size of decapods in fossil cold-water and tropical reefs that formed prior to human disturbance. We show that decapod biodiversity is higher in fossil tropical reefs from The Netherlands, Italy, and Spain compared to that of the exceptionally well-preserved Paleocene (Danian) cold-water reef/mound ecosystem from Faxe (Denmark), where decapod diversity is highest in a more heterogeneous, mixed bryozoan-coral habitat instead of in coral and bryozoan-dominated facies. The relatively low diversity at Faxe was not influenced substantially by the preceding Cretaceous/Paleogene extinction event that is not apparent in the standing diversity of decapods in our analyses, or by sampling, preservation, and/or a latitudinal diversity gradient. Instead, the lower availability of food and fewer hiding places for decapods may explain this low diversity. Furthermore, decapods from Faxe are larger than those from tropical waters for half of the comparisons, which may be caused by a lower number of predators, the delayed maturity, and the increased life span of crustaceans in deeper, colder waters. Finally, deep-water specimens of the benthic crab Caloxanthus from Faxe exhibit a larger eye socket size compared to congeneric specimens from tropical reefs, suggesting that dim light conditions favored the evolution of relatively large eyes. The results suggest a strong habitat control on the biodiversity of crustaceans in coral-associated environments and that the diversity difference between deep, cold-water reefs and tropical reefs evolved at least ~63 million years ago

  11. The importance of biodiversity and dominance for multiple ecosystem functions in a human-modified tropical landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Bongers, F.; Martinez-Ramos, M.; Poorter, L.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies suggest that biodiversity may be particularly important for ecosystem multifunctionality, because different species with different traits can contribute to different functions. Support, however, comes mostly from experimental studies conducted at small spatial scales in low-diversity

  12. SRTM-DEM and Landsat ETM+ data for mapping tropical dry forest cover and biodiversity assessment in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.E. Sesnie; S.E. Hagell; S.M. Otterstrom; C.L. Chambers; B.G. Dickson

    2008-01-01

    Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but has received far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reduce the extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentation may further endanger arboreal mammals that play...

  13. SRTM-DEM AND LANDSAT ETM+ DATA FOR MAPPING TROPICAL DRY FOREST COVER AND BIODIVERSITY ASSESSMENT IN NICARAGUA

    OpenAIRE

    Brett G. Dickson; Carol L. Chambers; Sarah M. Otterstrom; Suzanne E. Hagell; Steven E. Sesnie

    2008-01-01

    Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but hasreceived far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reducethe extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentationmay further endanger arboreal mammals that play principal role in the dispersal of large seeded fruits, plantcommunity assembly and diversity in these systems. Data on the spatial...

  14. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, the relationship between plant diversity and disturbance gradient makes ... factors affecting herbs species diversity in the ecosystem to building a model. ... in conserving global biodiversity and maintaining global ecosystem function.

  15. Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

    2017-12-01

    The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

  16. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  17. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Simon; Adger, W Neil

    2003-05-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis.

  18. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of land use change and agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Finegan, B.; Hormel, L.; Sibelet, N.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Waits, L.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non- traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we conduct a case study to examine the coupled social and ecological implications of LUCC and agricultural intensification in this region, with larger application to regions experiencing similar patterns. Guided by frameworks from both political and landscape ecology, we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which is likely to have a negative effect on biodiversity. To offset the effects of pineapple expansion on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  19. The global palm oil sector must change to save biodiversity and improve food security in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhar, Badrul; Saadun, Norzanalia; Prideaux, Margi; Lindenmayer, David B

    2017-12-01

    Most palm oil currently available in global markets is sourced from certified large-scale plantations. Comparatively little is sourced from (typically uncertified) smallholders. We argue that sourcing sustainable palm oil should not be determined by commercial certification alone and that the certification process should be revisited. There are so-far unrecognized benefits of sourcing palm oil from smallholders that should be considered if genuine biodiversity conservation is to be a foundation of 'environmentally sustainable' palm oil production. Despite a lack of certification, smallholder production is often more biodiversity-friendly than certified production from large-scale plantations. Sourcing palm oil from smallholders also alleviates poverty among rural farmers, promoting better conservation outcomes. Yet, certification schemes - the current measure of 'sustainability' - are financially accessible only for large-scale plantations that operate as profit-driven monocultures. Industrial palm oil is expanding rapidly in regions with weak environmental laws and enforcement. This warrants the development of an alternative certification scheme for smallholders. Greater attention should be directed to deforestation-free palm oil production in smallholdings, where production is less likely to cause large scale biodiversity loss. These small-scale farmlands in which palm oil is mixed with other crops should be considered by retailers and consumers who are interested in promoting sustainable palm oil production. Simultaneously, plantation companies should be required to make their existing production landscapes more compatible with enhanced biodiversity conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Models of Marine Fish Biodiversity: Assessing Predictors from Three Habitat Classification Schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Katherine L; Mellin, Camille; Caley, M Julian; Radford, Ben T; Meeuwig, Jessica J

    2016-01-01

    Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are

  1. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010): the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th anniversary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Muñoz, Vanessa; Azofeifa-Mora, Ana Beatriz; Monge-Nájera, Julián

    2012-12-01

    Central America is recognized as a mega diverse "hot-spot" and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world's leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62%) and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

  2. The Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a long-term test of the role of tree diversity in restoring tropical forest structure and functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Andy; Philipson, Christopher; Saner, Philippe; Chamagne, Juliette; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; O'Brien, Michael; Snaddon, Jake L.; Ulok, Philip; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2011-01-01

    Relatively, little is known about the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in forests, especially in the tropics. We describe the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a large-scale, long-term field study on the island of Borneo. The project aims at understanding the relationship between tree species diversity and the functioning of lowland dipterocarp rainforest during restoration following selective logging. The experiment is planned to run for several decades (from seed to adult tree), so here we focus on introducing the project and its experimental design and on assessing initial conditions and the potential for restoration of the structure and functioning of the study system, the Malua Forest Reserve. We estimate residual impacts 22 years after selective logging by comparison with an appropriate neighbouring area of primary forest in Danum Valley of similar conditions. There was no difference in the alpha or beta species diversity of transect plots in the two forest types, probably owing to the selective nature of the logging and potential effects of competitive release. However, despite equal total stem density, forest structure differed as expected with a deficit of large trees and a surfeit of saplings in selectively logged areas. These impacts on structure have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. In particular, above-ground biomass and carbon pools in selectively logged areas were only 60 per cent of those in the primary forest even after 22 years of recovery. Our results establish the initial conditions for the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment and confirm the potential to accelerate restoration by using enrichment planting of dipterocarps to overcome recruitment limitation. What role dipterocarp diversity plays in restoration only will become clear with long-term results. PMID:22006970

  3. Diversity of Platygastridae in Leaf Litter and Understory Layers of Tropical Rainforests of the Western Ghats Biodiversity Hotspot, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoj, K; Rajesh, T P; Prashanth Ballullaya, U; Meharabi, K M; Shibil, V K; Rajmohana, K; Sinu, Palatty Allesh

    2017-06-01

    Platygastridae is the third largest family of parasitic Hymenoptera in the world. It includes important egg and larval parasitoids of insects and spiders. Therefore, Platygastridae is functionally important in maintaining the stability of tropical rainforests and agroecosystems. Although the diversity of Platygastridae is relatively well-known in agroecosystems, we know little about their diversity in tropical rainforests, and particularly about that of the leaf litter layer. Here, we address the importance of monitoring Platygastridae in tropical rainforests, using data from the relic primary forests of the sacred groves of the Western Ghats. First, we demonstrate that pitfall traps allow us to catch a wide array of representative diversity of Platygastridae of the tropical rainforests, and we establish an efficient collection method to study Platygastridae of leaf litter layer. Second, we demonstrate that the community structure and composition of Platygastridae of the leaf litter layer is different from that seen in the understory of the forests. This indirectly informs us that the Malaise traps capture only a minor subset of the species active in the rainforests. Third, we find that the dry and wet seasons captured dissimilar community of Platygastridae, suggesting that the season might alter the potential host species or host stages. We conclude that monitoring parasitic Hymenoptera in the leaf litter layer of tropical rainforests can provide fresh insights on the species distribution of both the parasitoids and their hosts, and allows us to examine the current state of the tropical rainforests from a functional point of view. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Briones-Salas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation. We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  5. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavariega, Mario C.; Moreno, Claudia E.

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation). We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate. PMID:28630802

  6. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones-Salas, Miguel; Lavariega, Mario C; Moreno, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation). We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  7. Comparative modeling of coevolution in communities of unicellular organisms: adaptability and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashin, Sergey A; Suslov, Valentin V; Matushkin, Yuri G

    2010-06-01

    We propose an original program "Evolutionary constructor" that is capable of computationally efficient modeling of both population-genetic and ecological problems, combining these directions in one model of required detail level. We also present results of comparative modeling of stability, adaptability and biodiversity dynamics in populations of unicellular haploid organisms which form symbiotic ecosystems. The advantages and disadvantages of two evolutionary strategies of biota formation--a few generalists' taxa-based biota formation and biodiversity-based biota formation--are discussed.

  8. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Waits, L.; Finegan, B.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Hormel, L.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Sibelet, N.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non-traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we examine the coupled social and ecological implications of agricultural intensification Guided by frameworks from political economy, landscape ecology and landscape genetics we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology and genetics analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which increase the genetic structure and reduce the genetic diversity of Symphonia globulifera a forest understory tree species. To offset the effects of agricultural intensification on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  9. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Decomposing biodiversity data using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, a probabilistic multivariate statistical method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis Valle; Benjamin Baiser; Christopher W. Woodall; Robin Chazdon; Jerome. Chave

    2014-01-01

    We propose a novel multivariate method to analyse biodiversity data based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. LDA, a probabilistic model, reduces assemblages to sets of distinct component communities. It produces easily interpretable results, can represent abrupt and gradual changes in composition, accommodates missing data and allows for coherent estimates...

  11. Incentivizing biodiversity conservation in artisanal fishing communities through territorial user rights and business model innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelcich, Stefan; Donlan, C Josh

    2015-08-01

    Territorial user rights for fisheries are being promoted to enhance the sustainability of small-scale fisheries. Using Chile as a case study, we designed a market-based program aimed at improving fishers' livelihoods while incentivizing the establishment and enforcement of no-take areas within areas managed with territorial user right regimes. Building on explicit enabling conditions (i.e., high levels of governance, participation, and empowerment), we used a place-based, human-centered approach to design a program that will have the necessary support and buy-in from local fishers to result in landscape-scale biodiversity benefits. Transactional infrastructure must be complex enough to capture the biodiversity benefits being created, but simple enough so that the program can be scaled up and is attractive to potential financiers. Biodiversity benefits created must be commoditized, and desired behavioral changes must be verified within a transactional context. Demand must be generated for fisher-created biodiversity benefits in order to attract financing and to scale the market model. Important design decisions around these 3 components-supply, transactional infrastructure, and demand-must be made based on local social-ecological conditions. Our market model, which is being piloted in Chile, is a flexible foundation on which to base scalable opportunities to operationalize a scheme that incentivizes local, verifiable biodiversity benefits via conservation behaviors by fishers that could likely result in significant marine conservation gains and novel cross-sector alliances. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. [Application of biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes in urban biodiversity conservation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tian; Qiu, Ling; Chen, Cun-gen

    2010-09-01

    Based on the biotope classification system with vegetation structure as the framework, a modified biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes was developed, and applied to the study of the greenbelts in Helsingborg in southern Sweden. An evaluation of the vegetation cover continuity in the greenbelts was carried out by the comparisons of the vascular plant species richness in long- and short-continuity forests, based on the identification of woodland continuity by using ancient woodland indicator species (AWIS). In the test greenbelts, long-continuity woodlands had more AWIS. Among the forests where the dominant trees were more than 30-year-old, the long-continuity ones had a higher biodiversity of vascular plants, compared with the short-continuity ones with the similar vegetation structure. The modified biotope mapping model integrated with the continuity features of vegetation cover could be an important tool in investigating urban biodiversity, and provide corresponding strategies for future urban biodiversity conservation.

  13. Modelling of Box Type Solar Cooker Performance in a Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thermal performance model of box type solar cooker with loaded water is presented. The model was developed using the method of Funk to estimate cooking power in terms of climatic and design parameters for box type solar cooker in a tropical environment. Coefficients for each term used in the model were determined ...

  14. A Framework for Effective Assessment of Model-based Projections of Biodiversity to Inform the Next Generation of Global Conservation Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Weiskopf, S. R.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.; Casey, K.; Lenton, T. M.; Leidner, A. K.; Ruane, A. C.; Ferrier, S.; Serbin, S.; Matsuda, H.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Rosa, I.

    2017-12-01

    Biodiversity and ecosystems services underpin political targets for the conservation of biodiversity; however, previous incarnations of these biodiversity-related targets have not relied on integrated model based projections of possible outcomes based on climate and land use change. Although a few global biodiversity models are available, most biodiversity models lie along a continuum of geography and components of biodiversity. Model-based projections of the future of global biodiversity are critical to support policymakers in the development of informed global conservation targets, but the scientific community lacks a clear strategy for integrating diverse data streams in developing, and evaluating the performance of, such biodiversity models. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a framework for ongoing testing and refinement of model-based projections of biodiversity trends and change, by linking a broad variety of biodiversity models with data streams generated by advances in remote sensing, coupled with new and emerging in-situ observation technologies to inform development of essential biodiversity variables, future global biodiversity targets, and indicators. Our two main objectives are to (1) develop a framework for model testing and refining projections of a broad range of biodiversity models, focusing on global models, through the integration of diverse data streams and (2) identify the realistic outputs that can be developed and determine coupled approaches using remote sensing and new and emerging in-situ observations (e.g., metagenomics) to better inform the next generation of global biodiversity targets.

  15. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  16. Analysis of biodiversity experiments: A comparison of traditional and linear-model-based methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fibich, P.; Rychtecká, T.; Lepš, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 63, Feb 12 (2015), s. 47-55 ISSN 1146-609X Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : biodiversity effects * diversity-interactions models * species identity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.420, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1146609X15000181

  17. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Valerie E

    2014-01-01

    Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  18. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie E Peters

    Full Text Available Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  19. Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snäll, Tord; Lehtomäki, Joona; Arponen, Anni; Elith, Jane; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-02-01

    There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distribution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost-effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.

  20. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  1. Biodiversity and spatial patterns of benthic habitat and associated demersal fish communities at two tropical submerged reef ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Wahab, Muhammad Azmi; Radford, Ben; Cappo, Mike; Colquhoun, Jamie; Stowar, Marcus; Depczynski, Martial; Miller, Karen; Heyward, Andrew

    2018-06-01

    Submerged reef ecosystems can be very diverse and may serve as important refugia for shallow-water conspecifics. This study quantified the benthic and fish communities of two proximate, predominantly mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs), Glomar Shoal and Rankin Bank, which are geographically isolated from other similar features in the region. Glomar Shoal is identified as a key ecological feature (KEF) in the North West Marine Region of Australia. Multibeam surveys were performed to characterise the seafloor and to derive secondary environmental variables, used to explain patterns in benthic and fish communities. Towed video surveys quantified benthic cover, and stereo baited remote underwater stations were used to survey fish abundance and diversity. Surveys were completed in depths of 20-115 m. The two MCEs exhibited distinct communities; Rankin Bank consistently had higher cover (up to 30×) of benthic taxa across depths, and fish communities that were twice as abundant and 1.5× more diverse than Glomar Shoal. The location of the MCEs, depth and rugosity were most influential in structuring benthic communities. Phototrophic taxa, specifically macroalgae and hard corals, had up to 22 × higher cover at Rankin Bank than at Glomar Shoal and were dominant to 80 m (compared to 60 m at Glomar Shoal), presumably due to greater light penetration (lower turbidity) and lower sand cover at greater depths. The 20% coral cover at Rankin Bank was comparable to that reported for shallow reefs. The cover of sand, hard corals and sponges influenced fish communities, with higher abundance and diversity of fish associated with shallow hard coral habitats. This study demonstrated that the two MCEs were unique within the local context, and when coupled with their geographical isolation and biodiversity, presents compelling support for the additional recognition of Rankin Bank as a KEF.

  2. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  3. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  4. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  5. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  6. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hardisty, A.R.; Bacall, F.; Beard, N.; Balcázar-Vargas, M.P.; Balech, B.; Barcza, Z.; Bourlat, S.J.; De Giovanni, R.; de Jong, Y.; De Leo, F.; Dobor, L.; Donvito, G.; Fellows, D.; Fernandez Guerra, A.; Fereira, N.; Fetyukova, Y.; Fosso, B.; Giddy, J.; Goble, C.; Güntsch, A.; Haines, R.; Hernández Ernst, V.; Hettling, H.; Hidy, D.; Horváth, F.; Ittzés, D.; Ittzés, P.; Jones, A.; Kottmann, R.; Kulawik, R.; Leidenberger, S.; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, P.; Mathew, C.; Morrison, N.; Nenadic, A.; Nieva de la Hidalga, A.; Obst, M.; Oostermeijer, G.; Paymal, E.; Pesole, G.; Pinto, S.; Poigné, A.; Quevedo Fernandez, F.; Santamaria, M.; Saarenmaa, H.; Sipos, G.; Sylla, K.-H.; Tähtinen, M.; Vicario, S.; Vos, R.A.; Williams, A.R.; Yilmaz, P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed

  7. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  8. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  9. Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.

    2018-01-01

    and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....

  10. Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo-Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portik, Daniel M; Leaché, Adam D; Rivera, Danielle; Barej, Michael F; Burger, Marius; Hirschfeld, Mareike; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Blackburn, David C; Fujita, Matthew K

    2017-10-01

    The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model-testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species-specific and related to life-history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  12. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

  13. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Steiner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  14. Geography of conservation spending, biodiversity, and culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, T R; Rankin, P S

    2016-10-01

    We used linear and multivariate models to examine the associations between geography, biodiversity, per capita economic output, national spending on conservation, governance, and cultural traits in 55 countries. Cultural traits and social metrics of modernization correlated positively with national spending on conservation. The global distribution of this spending culture was poorly aligned with the distribution of biodiversity. Specifically, biodiversity was greater in the tropics where cultures tended to spend relatively less on conservation and tended to have higher collectivism, formalized and hierarchical leadership, and weaker governance. Consequently, nations lacking social traits frequently associated with modernization, environmentalism, and conservation spending have the largest component of Earth's biodiversity. This has significant implications for setting policies and priorities for resource management given that biological diversity is rapidly disappearing and cultural traits change slowly. Therefore, we suggest natural resource management adapt to and use characteristics of existing social organization rather than wait for or promote social values associated with conservation spending. Supporting biocultural traditions, engaging leaders to increase conservation commitments, cross-national efforts that complement attributes of cultures, and avoiding interference with nature may work best to conserve nature in collective and hierarchical societies. Spending in modernized nations may be a symbolic response to a symptom of economic development and environmental degradation, and here conservation actions need to ensure that biodiversity is not being lost. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010: the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th Anniversary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Nielsen-Muñoz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Central America is recognized as a mega diverse “hot-spot” and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world’s leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62% and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.América Central es reconocida como región mega- diversa y uno de sus países más pequeños, Costa Rica, se encuentra entre los líderes mundiales en el estudio y conservación de la biodiversidad tropical. Este estudio, inspirado por el 60 aniversario de la Revista de Biología Tropical, actualiza nuestro conocimiento bibliométrico sobre la materia. Hicimos un listado de toda la producción científica sobre la biodiversidad de Costa Rica en la Revista entre 2000 y 2010. La mayoría de los artículos son zoológicos (62% y el 67% de los autores sólo tuvo una publicación en la revista durante ese periodo. Un 54% de los artículos fueron publicados en

  16. Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

    2009-01-01

    Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

  17. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  18. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  19. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  20. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  1. Models of Coupled Settlement and Habitat Networks for Biodiversity Conservation: Conceptual Framework, Implementation and Potential Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten J. van Strien

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, the expansion of settlement and transport infrastructure is one of the most important proximate as well as ultimate causes of biodiversity loss. As much as every modern human society depends on a network of settlements that is well-connected by transport infrastructure (i.e., settlement network, animal and plant species depend on networks of habitats between which they can move (i.e., habitat networks. However, changes to a settlement network in a region often threaten the integrity of the region's habitat networks. Determining plans and policy to prevent these threats is made difficult by the numerous interactions and feedbacks that exist between and within the settlement and habitat networks. Mathematical models of coupled settlement and habitat networks can help us understand the dynamics of this social-ecological system. Yet, few attempts have been made to develop such mathematical models. In this paper, we promote the development of models of coupled settlement and habitat networks for biodiversity conservation. First, we present a conceptual framework of key variables that are ideally considered when operationalizing the coupling of settlement and habitat networks. In this framework, we first describe important network-internal interactions by differentiating between the structural (i.e., relating to purely physical conditions determining the suitability of a location for living or movement and functional (i.e., relating to the actual presence, abundance or movement of people or other organisms properties of either network. We then describe the main one-way influences that a settlement network can exert on the habitat networks and vice versa. Second, we give several recommendations for the mathematical modeling of coupled settlement and habitat networks and present several existing modeling approaches (e.g., habitat network models and land-use transport interaction models that could be used for this purpose. Lastly, we elaborate

  2. A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Martin J P; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Newson, Stuart E; Scholefield, Paul; Brereton, Tom; Oliver, Tom H

    2017-12-01

    Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies.We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively.Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications . This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.

  3. Local participation in biodiversity conservation initiatives: a comparative analysis of different models in South East Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-López, María Elena; García-Frapolli, Eduardo; Pritchard, Diana J; Sánchez González, María Consuelo; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Reyes-Garcia, Victoria

    2014-12-01

    In Mexico, biodiversity conservation is primarily implemented through three schemes: 1) protected areas, 2) payment-based schemes for environmental services, and 3) community-based conservation, officially recognized in some cases as Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas. In this paper we compare levels of local participation across conservation schemes. Through a survey applied to 670 households across six communities in Southeast Mexico, we document local participation during the creation, design, and implementation of the management plan of different conservation schemes. To analyze the data, we first calculated the frequency of participation at the three different stages mentioned, then created a participation index that characterizes the presence and relative intensity of local participation for each conservation scheme. Results showed that there is a low level of local participation across all the conservation schemes explored in this study. Nonetheless, the payment for environmental services had the highest local participation while the protected areas had the least. Our findings suggest that local participation in biodiversity conservation schemes is not a predictable outcome of a specific (community-based) model, thus implying that other factors might be important in determining local participation. This has implications on future strategies that seek to encourage local involvement in conservation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  5. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condori, Bruno; Hijmans, Robert J; Ledent, Jean Francois; Quiroz, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri) and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme). The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the impact of frosts

  6. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Condori

    Full Text Available Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme. The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the

  7. Neotropical Siluriformes as a Model for Insights on Determining Biodiversity of Animal Groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rúbia Ota

    Full Text Available We performed an analysis of the descriptions of new species of Neotropical Siluriformes (catfishes to estimate the number of new species that remain to be described for a complete knowledge on biodiversity of this order, to verify the effectiveness of taxonomic support, and to identify trends and present relevant information for future policies. We conducted a literature review of species descriptions between January 1990 and August 2014. The following metadata were recorded from each article: year of publication, number of species, journal and impact factor, family(s of the described species, number of authors, age of the authors and coauthors, country of the first author's institution and ecoregion of the type-locality. From accumulation of descriptions, we built an estimate model for number of species remaining to be described. We found 595 described species in 402 articles. The data demonstrated that there has been an increased understanding of the diversity of Siluriformes over the last 25 years in the Neotropical region, although 35% of the species still remain to be described. The model estimated that with the current trends and incentives, the biodiversity will be known in almost seven decades. We have reinforced the idea that greater joint efforts should be made by society and the scientific community to obtain this knowledge in a shorter period of time through enhanced programs for promoting science, training and the advancement of professionals before undiscovered species become extinct. The model built in this study can be used for similar estimates of other groups of animals.

  8. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  9. Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to sustain biodiversity in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem : balancing complexity and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian J. Palik; Robert J. Mitchell; J. Kevin Hiers

    2002-01-01

    Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to maintain biodiversity is a popular concept, yet its application remains elusive. We discuss difficulties inherent to this idea, and suggest approaches to facilitate implementation, using longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) as an example. Natural disturbance regimes are spatially and temporally variable. Variability...

  10. Pechora River basin integrated system management PRISM; biodiversity assessment for the Pechora River basin; Cluster B: biodiversity, land use & forestry modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der T.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the biodiversity for the Pechora River basin Integrated System Management (PRISM). The Pechora River Basin, situated just west of the Ural Mountains, Russia, consists of vast boreal forests and tundra landscapes, partly pristine and undisturbed. The concept of biodiversity is

  11. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  12. Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeyeong Choe

    Full Text Available Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS multi-response species distribution model to overcome species' data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species' ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species' presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the

  13. Integrating Biodiversity into Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions Using Individual-Based Models (IBM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

    2017-12-01

    A key component regulating complex, nonlinear, and dynamic biosphere-atmosphere interactions is the inherent diversity of biological systems. The model frameworks currently widely used, i.e., Plant Functional Type models) do not even begin to capture the metabolic and taxonomic diversity found in many terrestrial systems. We propose that a transition from PFT-based to individual-based modeling approaches (hereafter referred to as IBM) is essential for integrating biodiversity into research on biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The proposal emerges from our studying the interactions of forests with atmospheric processes in the context of climate change using an individual-based forest volatile organic compounds model, UVAFME-VOC. This individual-based model can explicitly simulate VOC emissions based on an explicit modelling of forest dynamics by computing the growth, death, and regeneration of each individual tree of different species and their competition for light, moisture, and nutrient, from which system-level VOC emissions are simulated by explicitly computing and summing up each individual's emissions. We found that elevated O3 significantly altered the forest dynamics by favoring species that are O3-resistant, which, meanwhile, are producers of isoprene. Such compositional changes, on the one hand, resulted in unsuppressed forest productivity and carbon stock because of the compensation by O3-resistant species. On the other hand, with more isoprene produced arising from increased producers, a possible positive feedback loop between tropospheric O3 and forest thereby emerged. We also found that climate warming will not always stimulate isoprene emissions because warming simultaneously reduces isoprene emissions by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. These results suggest that species diversity is of great significance and that individual-based modelling strategies should be applied in studying biosphere-atmosphere interactions.

  14. CFD modeling of airflow for indoor comfort in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aynsley, R.; Su, B.

    2006-01-01

    In humid tropical environments air movement is a common means to achieving indoor thermal comfort. In many locations closer to the equator, breezes are weaker and less reliable. Whatever the source of air movement it is important to quantity its potential in terms of the percentage of time the air movement will be available and the likely speed of the air movement in occupied zone of a building. It is also important to establish appropriate thermal comfort criteria with respect to air temperature, humidity and air movement. There are a number of techniques for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Boundary layer wind tunnels provide an opportunity to both measure and visually observe such airflow through model building. It is important to model adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns. Such studies are relatively expensive. The recent availability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software for personal computers offers an alternative method for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Very expensive versions of this software have been available for large computers and work stations for many years but they have only recently become available for smaller computers. There are some features of such software that should be compared before purchasing a copy or a license. This paper discusses such features in detail. It is important in the case of natural ventilation that adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns are included in the modeling. This paper also stresses the importance of calibrating the CFD software output against some physical measurements or wind tunnel modeling to ensure that the CFD results are realistic

  15. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  16. Discrete dynamical model of mechanisms determining the relations of biodiversity and stability at different levels of organization of living matter

    OpenAIRE

    Kabalyants, Petr; Nosov, Konstantin; Bespalov, Yuri

    2017-01-01

    The paper aims at building the model of relations of biodiversity and stability at different levels of organization of living matter with the use of discrete dynamical models. The relations revealed in the study are illustrated by case studies of zooplankton community of the eutrophicated lake and the colorimetric parameters of the microalgae community of phytobenthos and phytoperiphyton. The results offer: (1) new approaches to estimating the risk of mass development of toxic cyanobacteria i...

  17. Tropical landscapes in transition? : Widespread land-use change and measures to maintain forests, carbon stocks and biodiversity in North and East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Laan, C.

    2016-01-01

    The production of commodities such as palm oil and pulpwood is leading to large-scale land use change in the rural tropics to fulfil the demands of the increasing world population and overall living standard. On the one hand, such land use changes provide income to companies, smallholders and

  18. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-01-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical–ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. - Highlights: • The effects of N atmospheric deposition and climate change on vegetation were simulated. • The model ForSAFE-Veg was calibrated and validated carefully for three forests in France. • Climate has a greater influence on vegetation than N deposition in conifer forests. • N-poor ecosystems are, however, more sensitive to N deposition than to climate change. - Compared to nitrogen atmospheric deposition, climate appears to be the main driver of change in forest plant biodiversity on a century scale, except in N-poor ecosystems.

  19. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  20. Backyard Biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sarah S.

    2002-01-01

    Describes a field trip experience for the Earth Odyssey project for elementary school students focusing on biodiversity. Introduces the concept of diversity, field work, species richness, and the connection between animals and their habitat. (YDS)

  1. Teaching Biodiversity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Author Affiliations. Madhav Gadgil1 2. Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India. Biodiversity Unit, Jowaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur P.O. Jakkur, Bangalore 560064, India ...

  2. Sources and processes contributing to nitrogen deposition: an adjoint model analysis applied to biodiversity hotspots worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulot, Fabien; Jacob, Daniel J; Henze, Daven K

    2013-04-02

    Anthropogenic enrichment of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition is an ecological concern. We use the adjoint of a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to identify the sources and processes that control Nr deposition to an ensemble of biodiversity hotspots worldwide and two U.S. national parks (Cuyahoga and Rocky Mountain). We find that anthropogenic sources dominate deposition at all continental sites and are mainly regional (less than 1000 km) in origin. In Hawaii, Nr supply is controlled by oceanic emissions of ammonia (50%) and anthropogenic sources (50%), with important contributions from Asia and North America. Nr deposition is also sensitive in complicated ways to emissions of SO2, which affect Nr gas-aerosol partitioning, and of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which affect oxidant concentrations and produce organic nitrate reservoirs. For example, VOC emissions generally inhibit deposition of locally emitted NOx but significantly increase Nr deposition downwind. However, in polluted boreal regions, anthropogenic VOC emissions can promote Nr deposition in winter. Uncertainties in chemical rate constants for OH + NO2 and NO2 hydrolysis also complicate the determination of source-receptor relationships for polluted sites in winter. Application of our adjoint sensitivities to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios for 2010-2050 indicates that future decreases in Nr deposition due to NOx emission controls will be offset by concurrent increases in ammonia emissions from agriculture.

  3. Tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  4. Bridging the gap between biodiversity data and policy reporting needs: An essential biodiversity variables perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Geijzendorffer, IR

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available come from less biodiverse areas such as North America and 92 Europe rather than biodiversity-rich areas such as some parts of the tropics (Collen et al. 2008; Mora et 93 al. 2008; Pereira et al. 2012) and developing countries (Butchart et al. 2010... provision, EBVs 349 for other specific ecosystem functions were missing (e.g., pollination or soil decomposition rates). 350 351 This analysis also highlighted that reporting required additional indicators on non-biodiversity variables, 352...

  5. Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of

  6. How Well Does LCA Model Land Use Impacts on Biodiversity?--A Comparison with Approaches from Ecology and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Michael; de Souza, Danielle Maia; Antón, Assumpció; Teixeira, Ricardo F M; Michelsen, Ottar; Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz; Sala, Serenella; Milà i Canals, Llorenç

    2016-03-15

    The modeling of land use impacts on biodiversity is considered a priority in life cycle assessment (LCA). Many diverging approaches have been proposed in an expanding literature on the topic. The UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative is engaged in building consensus on a shared modeling framework to highlight best-practice and guide model application by practitioners. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of 31 models from both the LCA and the ecology/conservation literature (20 from LCA, 11 from non-LCA fields) according to a set of criteria reflecting (i) model completeness, (ii) biodiversity representation, (iii) impact pathway coverage, (iv) scientific quality, and (v) stakeholder acceptance. We show that LCA models tend to perform worse than those from ecology and conservation (although not significantly), implying room for improvement. We identify seven best-practice recommendations that can be implemented immediately to improve LCA models based on existing approaches in the literature. We further propose building a "consensus model" through weighted averaging of existing information, to complement future development. While our research focuses on conceptual model design, further quantitative comparison of promising models in shared case studies is an essential prerequisite for future informed model choice.

  7. Intercomparison of the seasonal cycle of tropical surface stress in 17 AMIP atmospheric general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saji, N.H.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Inst. of Sci., Bangalore (India). Centre for Atmos. and Oceanic Sci.

    1997-08-01

    The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979-1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. 44 refs.

  8. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  9. Using occupancy modeling to compare traditional versus DNA metabarcoding methods for characterizing zooplankton biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    DNA metabarcoding tools could increase our ability to detect changes in zooplankton communities and to detect invasive zooplankton taxa while they are still rare. Nonetheless, the use of DNA-metabarcoding for characterizing zooplankton biodiversity in the Great Lakes has not bee...

  10. Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry

  11. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

    2016-10-20

    Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational

  12. Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

  13. Ecology: The Tropical Deforestation Debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Ken

    2016-08-22

    Tropical deforestation is a significant cause of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. A new study shows that deforestation today leaves a carbon and biodiversity debt to be paid over subsequent years. This has potentially profound implications for forest conservation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  15. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  16. Modeling CCN effects on tropical convection: An statistical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio, G. G.; Cotton, W. R.; Massie, S. T.

    2012-12-01

    This modeling study examines the response of tropical convection to the enhancement of CCN concentrations from a statistical perspective. The sensitivity runs were performed using RAMS version 6.0, covering almost the entire Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment period (AMAZE, wet season of 2008). The main focus of the analysis was the indirect aerosol effects on the probability density functions (PDFs) of various cloud properties. RAMS was configured to work with four two-way interactive nested grids with 42 vertical levels and horizontal grid spacing of 150, 37.5, 7.5, and 1.5 km. Grids 2 and 3 were used to simulate the synoptic and mesoscale environments, while grid 4 was used to resolve deep convection. Comparisons were made using the finest grid with a domain size of 300 X 300km, approximately centered on the city of Manaus (3.1S, 60.01W). The vertical grid was stretched using with 75m spacing at the finest levels to provide better resolution within the first 1.5 km, and the model top extended to approximately 22 km above ground level. RAMS was initialized on February 10 2008 (00:00 UTC), the length of simulations was 32 days, and GSF data were used for initialization and nudging of the coarser-grid boundaries. The control run considered a CCN concentration of 300cm-3 while other several other simulations considered an influx of higher CCN concentrations (up to 1300/cc) . The latter concentration was observed near the end of the AMAZE project period. Both direct and indirect effects of these CCN particles were considered. Model output data (finest grid) every 15 min were used to compute the PDFs for each model level. When increasing aerosol concentrations, significant impacts were simulated for the PDFs of the water contents of various hydrometeors, vertical motions, area with precipitation, latent heat releases, among other quantities. In most cases, they exhibited a peculiar non-monotonic response similar to that seen in two previous studies of ours

  17. Life Cycle of Tropical Convection and Anvil in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, S. A.; Hagos, S. M.; Comstock, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical convective clouds are important elements of the hydrological cycle and produce extensive cirrus anvils that strongly affect the tropical radiative energy balance. To improve simulations of the global water and energy cycles and accurately predict both precipitation and cloud radiative feedbacks, models need to realistically simulate the lifecycle of tropical convection, including the formation and radiative properties of ice anvil clouds. By combining remote sensing datasets from precipitation and cloud radars at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Darwin site with geostationary satellite data, we can develop observational understanding of the lifetime of convective systems and the links between the properties of convective systems and their associated anvil clouds. The relationships between convection and anvil in model simulations can then be compared to those seen in the observations to identify areas for improvement in the model simulations. We identify and track tropical convective systems in the Tropical Western Pacific using geostationary satellite observations. We present statistics of the tropical convective systems including size, age, and intensity and classify the lifecycle stage of each system as developing, mature, or dissipating. For systems that cross over the ARM Darwin site, information on convective intensity and anvil properties are obtained from the C-Pol precipitation radar and MMCR cloud radar, respectively, and are examined as a function of the system lifecycle. Initial results from applying the convective identification and tracking algorithm to a tropical simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run show that the model produces reasonable overall statistics of convective systems, but details of the life cycle (such as diurnal cycle, system tracks) differ from the observations. Further work will focus on the role of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the model's convective life cycle.

  18. Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiu

    Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

  19. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  20. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  1. Mycorrhizas and tropical soil fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Kuyper, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Major factors that constrain tropical soil fertility and sustainable agriculture are low nutrient capital, moisture stress, erosion, high P fixation, high acidity with aluminium toxicity, and low soil biodiversity. The fragility of many tropical soils limits food production in annual cropping

  2. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  3. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  4. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  5. Tropical forest harvesting and taxation: a dynamic model of harvesting behavior under selective extraction systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Conrad; Malcolm Gillis; D. Evan Mercer

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic model of selective harvesting in multi-species,multi-age tropical forests is developed. Forests are predicted to exhibit different optimal harvesting profiles depending on the nature of their joint cost functions and own or cross-species stock effects. The model is applied to the controversy about incentives produced by various taxes. The impacts of specific...

  6. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  7. Relationship between biodiversity and agricultural production

    OpenAIRE

    Brunetti, Ilaria; Tidball, Mabel; Couvet, Denis

    2018-01-01

    Agriculture is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. In this work we model the interdependent relationship between biodiversity and agriculture on a farmed land, supposing that, while agriculture has a negative impact on biodiversity, the latter can increase agricultural production. Farmers act as myopic agents, who maximize their instantaneous profit without considering the negative effects of their practice on the evolution of biodiversity. We find that a tax on inputs can have a pos...

  8. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M.G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N.C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the ~ model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD...

  9. Estimating impacts of plantation forestry on plant biodiversity in southern Chile-a spatially explicit modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Andreas Christian; Koch, Barbara

    2016-10-01

    Monitoring the impacts of land-use practices is of particular importance with regard to biodiversity hotspots in developing countries. Here, conserving the high level of unique biodiversity is challenged by limited possibilities for data collection on site. Especially for such scenarios, assisting biodiversity assessments by remote sensing has proven useful. Remote sensing techniques can be applied to interpolate between biodiversity assessments taken in situ. Through this approach, estimates of biodiversity for entire landscapes can be produced, relating land-use intensity to biodiversity conditions. Such maps are a valuable basis for developing biodiversity conservation plans. Several approaches have been published so far to interpolate local biodiversity assessments in remote sensing data. In the following, a new approach is proposed. Instead of inferring biodiversity using environmental variables or the variability of spectral values, a hypothesis-based approach is applied. Empirical knowledge about biodiversity in relation to land-use is formalized and applied as ascription rules for image data. The method is exemplified for a large study site (over 67,000 km(2)) in central Chile, where forest industry heavily impacts plant diversity. The proposed approach yields a coefficient of correlation of 0.73 and produces a convincing estimate of regional biodiversity. The framework is broad enough to be applied to other study sites.

  10. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1998-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. The information used in these models pertains mostly to temperate and cold climate data, with these data mostly being hard-wired into the body of the model. At the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional data (South East Asia) with transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. Flexibility has been incorporated into the the design of the model to allow application in other regions. Where the relevant data are not available, default temperate data are used whilst specific research will be initiated to determine the information required. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for the display of input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also to the underlying assumptions

  11. Arthropod diversity in a tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basset, Yves; Cizek, Lukas; Cuénoud, Philippe; Didham, Raphael K; Guilhaumon, François; Missa, Olivier; Novotny, Vojtech; Ødegaard, Frode; Roslin, Tomas; Schmidl, Jürgen; Tishechkin, Alexey K; Winchester, Neville N; Roubik, David W; Aberlenc, Henri-Pierre; Bail, Johannes; Barrios, Héctor; Bridle, Jon R; Castaño-Meneses, Gabriela; Corbara, Bruno; Curletti, Gianfranco; Duarte da Rocha, Wesley; De Bakker, Domir; Delabie, Jacques H C; Dejean, Alain; Fagan, Laura L; Floren, Andreas; Kitching, Roger L; Medianero, Enrique; Miller, Scott E; Gama de Oliveira, Evandro; Orivel, Jérôme; Pollet, Marc; Rapp, Mathieu; Ribeiro, Sérvio P; Roisin, Yves; Schmidt, Jesper B; Sørensen, Line; Leponce, Maurice

    2012-12-14

    Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.

  12. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P; Collier, Catherine J; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R

    2017-01-04

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (T opt ) for maximum photosynthetic rate (P max ). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  13. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P.; Collier, Catherine J.; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X.; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R.

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  14. Soil biodiversity in amazonian and other Brazilian ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreira, F.M.S.; Siqueira, J.O.; Brussaard, L.

    2006-01-01

    This book reviews soil biodiversity and related ecological processes in one of the key biodiversity hotspots of the world, the Amazon, and nearby regions of Brazil. It covers both the tropical savannah and rainforests. Chapters describe the biology, ecology, taxonomy, geographic distribution and

  15. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B [Institute of Advanced Technology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Mansor, Shattri B, E-mail: sahragard@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  16. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B.; Hamiruce Marhaban, Mohammad; Mansor, Shattri B.

    2011-02-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  17. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B; Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce; Mansor, Shattri B

    2011-01-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  18. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  19. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  20. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  1. Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Zhou, Shudong; Burkhard, Benjamin; Müller, Felix

    2014-08-15

    One focus of ecosystem service research is the connection between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being as well as the socioeconomic influences on them. Despite existing investigations, exact impacts from the human system on the dynamics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being are still uncertain because of the insufficiency of the respective quantitative analyses. Our research aims are discerning the socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being and demonstrating mutual impacts between these items. We propose a DPSIR framework coupling ecological integrity, ecosystem services as well as human well-being and suggest DPSIR indicators for the case study area Jiangsu, China. Based on available statistical and surveying data, we revealed the factors significantly impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the research area through factor analysis and correlation analysis, using the 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu as samples. The results show that urbanization and industrialization in the urban areas have predominant positive influences on regional biodiversity, agricultural productivity and tourism services as well as rural residents' living standards. Additionally, the knowledge, technology and finance inputs for agriculture also have generally positive impacts on these system components. Concerning regional carbon storage, non-cropland vegetation cover obviously plays a significant positive role. Contrarily, the expansion of farming land and the increase of total food production are two important negative influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem's food provisioning service capacity, regional tourism income and the well-being of the rural population. Our study provides a promising approach based on the DPSIR model to quantitatively capture the socioeconomic influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being for human-environmental systems

  2. Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Randall V.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Bey, Isabelle; Yantosca, Robert M.; Staudt, Amanda C.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Liu, Hongyu; Ginoux, Paul

    2004-01-01

    We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias. Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern topical enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOC's over biomass burning regions by 3-5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2-5 DU over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by approximately DU the magnitude of the "tropical Atlantic paradox" [Thompson et al, 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass burning season in December-February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from lightning NOx, peristent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from northern midlatitudes in the African "westerly duct." These processes in the model can also account for the observed 13-17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a maximum above the tropical Atlantic and a minimum

  3. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP) Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a) the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity) of a country; (b) the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c) the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Methods Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Results Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most non-participant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. Conclusions The BIP Index could potentially help in (a) identifying countries most likely to

  4. Traditional African Knowledge In Biodiversity Conservation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The tropical forest ecosystem is one of the most important ecosystems of the world, because it contains a large proportion of the world's biodiversity and provides many environmental functions. Local communities have successfully conserved these resources that are of interest to them through laws and taboos. These range ...

  5. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia P G

    2015-10-01

    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation. © 2015 The Authors

  6. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.

    Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote

  7. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  8. Stem biomass and volume models of selected tropical tree species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stem biomass and stem volume were modelled as a function of diameter (at breast height; Dbh) and stem height (height to the crown base). Logarithmic models are presented that utilise Dbh and height data to predict tree component biomass and stem volumes. Alternative models are given that afford prediction based on ...

  9. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2017-10-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  10. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  11. A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

    2013-09-15

    In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Barber, Mary C.; Adams, Mark; Agboola, Julius I.; Allen, Edith B.; Bealey, William J.; Bobbink, Roland; Bobrovsky, Maxim V.; Bowman, William D.; Branquinho, Cristina; Bustamente, Mercedes M. C.; Clark, Christopher M.; Cocking, Edward C.; Cruz, Cristina; Davidson, Eric A.; Denmead, O. Tom; Dias, Teresa; Dise, Nancy B.; Feest, Alan; Galloway, James N.; Geiser, Linda H.; Gilliam, Frank S.; Harrison, Ian J.; Khanina, Larisa G.; Lu, Xiankai; Manrique, Esteban; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Ometto, Jean P. H. B.; Payne, Richard; Scheuschner, Thomas; Sheppard, Lucy J.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Singh, Y. V.; Stevens, Carly J.; Strachan, Ian; Sverdrup, Harald; Tokuchi, Naoko; van Dobben, Hans; Woodin, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    This chapter reports the findings of a Working Group on how atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects both terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity. Regional and global scale impacts on biodiversity are addressed, together with potential indicators. Key conclusions are that: the rates of loss in biodiversity are greatest at the lowest and initial stages of N deposition increase; changes in species compositions are related to the relative amounts of N, carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) in the plant soil system; enhanced N inputs have implications for C cycling; N deposition is known to be having adverse effects on European and North American vegetation composition; very little is known about tropical ecosystem responses, while tropical ecosystems are major biodiversity hotspots and are increasingly recipients of very high N deposition rates; N deposition alters forest fungi and mycorrhyzal relations with plants; the rapid response of forest fungi and arthropods makes them good indicators of change; predictive tools (models) that address ecosystem scale processes are necessary to address complex drivers and responses, including the integration of N deposition, climate change and land use effects; criteria can be identified for projecting sensitivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to N deposition. Future research and policy-relevant recommendations are identified.

  13. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, Georgina M.; Mouillot, David; Vause, James; Walpole, Matt

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth’s human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum—as well as opposition—is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem’s long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify ‘biodiversity services’ in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach. PMID:27928040

  14. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Nathalie; Mace, Georgina M; Naeem, Shahid; Tobias, Joseph A; Pigot, Alex L; Cavanagh, Rachel; Mouillot, David; Vause, James; Walpole, Matt

    2016-12-14

    Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth's human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum-as well as opposition-is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem's long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify 'biodiversity services' in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach. © 2016 The Author(s).

  15. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, H.; Dare, R. A.

    2018-04-01

    Projections of Tropical cyclone (TC) formation under future climate scenarios are dependent on climate model simulations. However, many models produce unrealistic geographical distributions of TC formation, especially in the north and south Atlantic and eastern south Pacific TC basins. In order to improve confidence in projections it is important to understand the reasons behind these model errors. However, considerable effort is required to analyse the many models used in projection studies. To address this problem, a novel diagnostic is developed that provides compelling insight into why TCs form where they do, using a few summary diagrams. The diagnostic is developed after identifying a relationship between seasonal climatologies of atmospheric variables in 34 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, and TC detection distributions in the same data. Geographic boundaries of TC formation are constructed from four threshold quantities. TCs form where Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity, V_{{PI}}, exceeds 40 {ms}^{{ - 1}}, 700 hPa relative humidity, RH_{{700}}, exceeds 40%, and the magnitude of the difference in vector winds between 850 and 200 hPa, V_{{sh}}, is less than 20 {ms}^{{ - 1}}. The equatorial boundary is best defined by a composite quantity containing the ratio of absolute vorticity (η ) to the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity (β ^{*}), rather than η alone. {β ^*} is also identified as a potentially important ingredient for TC genesis indices. A comparison of detected Tropical Depression (TD) and Tropical Storm (TS) climatologies revealed TDs more readily intensify further to TS where {V_{PI}} is elevated and {V_{sh}} is relatively weak. The distributions of each threshold quantity identify the factors that favour and suppress TC formation throughout the tropics in the real world. This information can be used to understand why TC formation is poorly represented in some climate models, and shows potential for understanding anomalous TC formation

  16. The importance of realistic dispersal models in conservation planning: application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aben, Job; Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C F; Pellikka, Petri; Strubbe, Diederik; Hallmann, Caspar; Travis, Justin M J; Lens, Luc; Matthysen, Erik

    2016-08-01

    As biodiversity hotspots are often characterized by high human population densities, implementation of conservation management practices that focus only on the protection and enlargement of pristine habitats is potentially unrealistic. An alternative approach to curb species extinction risk involves improving connectivity among existing habitat patches. However, evaluation of spatially explicit management strategies is challenging, as predictive models must account for the process of dispersal, which is difficult in terms of both empirical data collection and modelling.Here, we use a novel, individual-based modelling platform that couples demographic and mechanistic dispersal models to evaluate the effectiveness of realistic management scenarios tailored to conserve forest birds in a highly fragmented biodiversity hotspot. Scenario performance is evaluated based on the spatial population dynamics of a well-studied forest bird species.The largest population increase was predicted to occur under scenarios increasing habitat area. However, the effectiveness was sensitive to spatial planning. Compared to adding one large patch to the habitat network, adding several small patches yielded mixed benefits: although overall population sizes increased, specific newly created patches acted as dispersal sinks, which compromised population persistence in some existing patches. Increasing matrix connectivity by the creation of stepping stones is likely to result in enhanced dispersal success and occupancy of smaller patches. Synthesis and applications . We show that the effectiveness of spatial management is strongly driven by patterns of individual dispersal across landscapes. For species conservation planning, we advocate the use of models that incorporate adequate realism in demography and, particularly, in dispersal behaviours.

  17. Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

  18. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  19. Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

  20. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    OpenAIRE

    M. Winkler; I. Juen; T. Mölg; G. Kaser

    2008-01-01

    Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parametrisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models.

    During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on ...

  1. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    OpenAIRE

    Winkler , M.; Juen , I.; Mölg , T.; Wagnon , Patrick; Gómez , J.; Kaser , G.

    2009-01-01

    Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy and mass balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season (May–September) low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parameterisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models.

    During 15 days in August 2005 su...

  2. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  3. (Tropical) soil organic matter modelling: problems and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, van H.

    2001-01-01

    Soil organic matter plays an important role in many physical, chemical and biological processes. However, the quantitative relations between the mineral and organic components of the soil and the relations with the vegetation are poorly understood. In such situations, the use of models is an

  4. Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

    2015-09-01

    The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

  5. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  6. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Zedler, Sarah E.; Knio, Omar; Jackson, Charles S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference

  7. Beyond biodiversity: fish metagenomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba Ardura

    Full Text Available Biodiversity and intra-specific genetic diversity are interrelated and determine the potential of a community to survive and evolve. Both are considered together in Prokaryote communities treated as metagenomes or ensembles of functional variants beyond species limits.Many factors alter biodiversity in higher Eukaryote communities, and human exploitation can be one of the most important for some groups of plants and animals. For example, fisheries can modify both biodiversity and genetic diversity (intra specific. Intra-specific diversity can be drastically altered by overfishing. Intense fishing pressure on one stock may imply extinction of some genetic variants and subsequent loss of intra-specific diversity. The objective of this study was to apply a metagenome approach to fish communities and explore its value for rapid evaluation of biodiversity and genetic diversity at community level. Here we have applied the metagenome approach employing the barcoding target gene coi as a model sequence in catch from four very different fish assemblages exploited by fisheries: freshwater communities from the Amazon River and northern Spanish rivers, and marine communities from the Cantabric and Mediterranean seas.Treating all sequences obtained from each regional catch as a biological unit (exploited community we found that metagenomic diversity indices of the Amazonian catch sample here examined were lower than expected. Reduced diversity could be explained, at least partially, by overexploitation of the fish community that had been independently estimated by other methods.We propose using a metagenome approach for estimating diversity in Eukaryote communities and early evaluating genetic variation losses at multi-species level.

  8. Beyond biodiversity: fish metagenomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardura, Alba; Planes, Serge; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity and intra-specific genetic diversity are interrelated and determine the potential of a community to survive and evolve. Both are considered together in Prokaryote communities treated as metagenomes or ensembles of functional variants beyond species limits.Many factors alter biodiversity in higher Eukaryote communities, and human exploitation can be one of the most important for some groups of plants and animals. For example, fisheries can modify both biodiversity and genetic diversity (intra specific). Intra-specific diversity can be drastically altered by overfishing. Intense fishing pressure on one stock may imply extinction of some genetic variants and subsequent loss of intra-specific diversity. The objective of this study was to apply a metagenome approach to fish communities and explore its value for rapid evaluation of biodiversity and genetic diversity at community level. Here we have applied the metagenome approach employing the barcoding target gene coi as a model sequence in catch from four very different fish assemblages exploited by fisheries: freshwater communities from the Amazon River and northern Spanish rivers, and marine communities from the Cantabric and Mediterranean seas.Treating all sequences obtained from each regional catch as a biological unit (exploited community) we found that metagenomic diversity indices of the Amazonian catch sample here examined were lower than expected. Reduced diversity could be explained, at least partially, by overexploitation of the fish community that had been independently estimated by other methods.We propose using a metagenome approach for estimating diversity in Eukaryote communities and early evaluating genetic variation losses at multi-species level.

  9. A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janjai, S.; Pankaew, P.; Laksanaboonsong, J.

    2009-01-01

    A model for calculating global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data is presented. The model is designed to calculate the monthly average hourly global radiation in the tropics with high aerosol load. This model represents a physical relation between the earth-atmospheric albedo derived from GMS5 satellite data and the absorption and scattering coefficients of various atmospheric constituents. The absorption of solar radiation by water vapour which is important for the tropics, was calculated from ambient temperature and relative humidity. The relationship between the visibility and solar radiation depletion due to aerosols was developed for a high aerosol load environment. This relationship was used to calculate solar radiation depletion by aerosols in the model. The total column ozone from TOMS/EP satellite was employed for the determination of solar radiation absorbed by ozone. Solar radiation from four pyranometer stations was used to formulate the relationship between the satellite band earth-atmospheric albedo and broadband earth-atmospheric albedo required by the model. To test its performance, the model was used to compute the monthly average hourly global radiation at 25 solar radiation monitoring stations in tropical areas in Thailand. It was found that the values of monthly average of hourly global radiations calculated from the model were in good agreement with those obtained from the measurements, with the root mean square difference of 10%. After the validation the model was employed to generate hourly solar radiation maps of Thailand. These maps reveal the diurnal and season variation of solar radiation over the country.

  10. A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janjai, S.; Pankaew, P.; Laksanaboonsong, J. [Solar Energy Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom 73000 (Thailand)

    2009-09-15

    A model for calculating global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data is presented. The model is designed to calculate the monthly average hourly global radiation in the tropics with high aerosol load. This model represents a physical relation between the earth-atmospheric albedo derived from GMS5 satellite data and the absorption and scattering coefficients of various atmospheric constituents. The absorption of solar radiation by water vapour which is important for the tropics, was calculated from ambient temperature and relative humidity. The relationship between the visibility and solar radiation depletion due to aerosols was developed for a high aerosol load environment. This relationship was used to calculate solar radiation depletion by aerosols in the model. The total column ozone from TOMS/EP satellite was employed for the determination of solar radiation absorbed by ozone. Solar radiation from four pyranometer stations was used to formulate the relationship between the satellite band earth-atmospheric albedo and broadband earth-atmospheric albedo required by the model. To test its performance, the model was used to compute the monthly average hourly global radiation at 25 solar radiation monitoring stations in tropical areas in Thailand. It was found that the values of monthly average of hourly global radiations calculated from the model were in good agreement with those obtained from the measurements, with the root mean square difference of 10%. After the validation the model was employed to generate hourly solar radiation maps of Thailand. These maps reveal the diurnal and season variation of solar radiation over the country. (author)

  11. Constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity causes significant increase of modelled tropical vegetation surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattge, J.; Knorr, W.; Raddatz, T.; Wirth, C.

    2009-04-01

    Photosynthetic capacity is one of the most sensitive parameters of terrestrial biosphere models whose representation in global scale simulations has been severely hampered by a lack of systematic analyses using a sufficiently broad database. Due to its coupling to stomatal conductance changes in the parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity may potentially influence transpiration rates and vegetation surface temperature. Here, we provide a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity for different plant functional types in the context of the photosynthesis model proposed by Farquhar et al. (1980), based on a comprehensive compilation of leaf photosynthesis rates and leaf nitrogen content. Mean values of photosynthetic capacity were implemented into the coupled climate-vegetation model ECHAM5/JSBACH and modelled gross primary production (GPP) is compared to a compilation of independent observations on stand scale. Compared to the current standard parameterisation the root-mean-squared difference between modelled and observed GPP is substantially reduced for almost all PFTs by the new parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity. We find a systematic depression of NUE (photosynthetic capacity divided by leaf nitrogen content) on certain tropical soils that are known to be deficient in phosphorus. Photosynthetic capacity of tropical trees derived by this study is substantially lower than standard estimates currently used in terrestrial biosphere models. This causes a decrease of modelled GPP while it significantly increases modelled tropical vegetation surface temperatures, up to 0.8°C. These results emphasise the importance of a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity not only for the carbon cycle, but also for the climate system.

  12. Models of oceanic island biogeography: changing perspectives on biodiversity dynamics in archipelagoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence R Heaney

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Models of biogeographic processes can both enhance and inhibit our ability to ask questions that guide our understanding of patterns and processes. The two ‘traditional’ models of island biogeography, the Equilibrium Model and the Vicariance Model, raise important and insightful questions about relevant processes, but both fail to raise many crucial questions. An example involving the non-volant mammals of the Philippine archipelago shows that both models highlight some, but not all, relevant patterns and processes. The more recently proposed General Dynamic Model successfully combines many of the positive aspects of the two traditional models, but leaves some important questions unasked. We pose a number of questions here that may help guide further development of models of island biogeography.

  13. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  14. The Smithsonian-led Marine Global Earth Observatory (MarineGEO): Proposed Model for a Collaborative Network Linking Marine Biodiversity to Ecosystem Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, J. E.

    2016-02-01

    Biodiversity - the variety of functional types of organisms - is the engine of marine ecosystem processes, including productivity, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Biodiversity remains a black box in much of ocean science, despite wide recognition that effectively managing human interactions with marine ecosystems requires understanding both structure and functional consequences of biodiversity. Moreover, the inherent complexity of biological systems puts a premium on data-rich, comparative approaches, which are best met via collaborative networks. The Smithsonian Institution's MarineGEO program links a growing network of partners conducting parallel, comparative research to understand change in marine biodiversity and ecosystems, natural and anthropogenic drivers of that change, and the ecological processes mediating it. The focus is on nearshore, seabed-associated systems where biodiversity and human population are concentrated and interact most, yet which fall through the cracks of existing ocean observing programs. MarineGEO offers a standardized toolbox of research modules that efficiently capture key elements of biological diversity and its importance in ecological processes across a range of habitats. The toolbox integrates high-tech (DNA-based, imaging) and low-tech protocols (diver surveys, rapid assays of consumer activity) adaptable to differing institutional capacity and resources. The model for long-term sustainability involves leveraging in-kind support among partners, adoption of best practices wherever possible, engagement of students and citizen scientists, and benefits of training, networking, and global relevance as incentives for participation. Here I highlight several MarineGEO comparative research projects demonstrating the value of standardized, scalable assays and parallel experiments for measuring fish and invertebrate diversity, recruitment, benthic herbivory and generalist predation, decomposition, and carbon sequestration. Key

  15. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  16. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  17. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2017-09-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  18. Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone: However, models will tend to overpredict O3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

    1990-10-01

    Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. We illustrate basic processes with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale. In the first, cook-then-mix, simulation the nitrogen oxides and other burning-produced pollutants are confined to a persistently subsident fair weather boundary layer for several days, and the resultant ozone is found to have only a transient influence on the whole column of tropospheric ozone. In the second, mix-then-cook, simulation the effect of typical cumulonimbus convection, which vents an actively polluted boundary layer, is to make a persistent increase in the tropical ozone column. Such a broadly increased ozone column is observed over the the populated "continental" portion of the tropics. A third simulation averages all emission, transport, and deposition parameters, representing one column in a global tropospheric model that does not simulate individual weather events. This "oversmoothing" simulation produces 60% more ozone than observed or otherwise modeled. Qualitatively similar overprediction is suggested for all models which average significantly in time or space, as all need do. Clearly, simulating these O3 levels will depend sensitively on knowledge of the timing of emissions and transport.

  19. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2018-06-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  20. Weak leaf photosynthesis and nutrient content relationships from tropical vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingues, T. F.; Ishida, F. Y.; Feldpaush, T.; Saiz, G.; Grace, J.; Meir, P.; Lloyd, J.

    2015-12-01

    Evergreen rain forests and savannas are the two major vegetations of tropical land ecosystems, in terms of land area, biomass, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles and rates of land use change. Mechanistically understanding ecosystem functioning on such ecosystems is still far from complete, but important for generation of future vegetation scenarios in response to global changes. Leaf photosynthetic rates is a key processes usually represented on land surface-atmosphere models, although data from tropical ecosystems is scarce, considering the high biodiversity they contain. As a shortcut, models usually recur to relationships between leaf nutrient concentration and photosynthetic rates. Such strategy is convenient, given the possibility of global datasets on leave nutrients derived from hyperspectral remote sensing data. Given the importance of Nitrogen on enzyme composition, this nutrient is usually used to infer photosynthetic capacity of leaves. Our experience, based on individual measurements on 1809 individual leaves from 428 species of trees and shrubs naturally occurring on tropical forests and savannas from South America, Africa and Australia, indicates that the relationship between leaf nitrogen and its assimilation capacity is weak. Therefore, leaf Nitrogen alone is a poor predictor of photosynthetic rates of tropical vegetation. Phosphorus concentrations from tropical soils are usually low and is often implied that this nutrient limits primary productivity of tropical vegetation. Still, phosphorus (or other nutrients) did not exerted large influence over photosynthetic capacity, although potassium influenced vegetation structure and function. Such results draw attention to the risks of applying universal nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships on biogeochemical models. Moreover, our data suggests that affiliation of plant species within phylogenetic hierarchy is an important aspect in understanding leaf trait variation. The lack of a strong single

  1. Biodiversity impact assessment (BIA+) - methodological framework for screening biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Lisa; Pflugmacher, Stephan; Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    For the past 20 years, the life cycle assessment (LCA) community has sought to integrate impacts on biodiversity into the LCA framework. However, existing impact assessment methods still fail to do so comprehensively because they quantify only a few impacts related to specific species and regions. This paper proposes a methodological framework that will allow LCA practitioners to assess currently missing impacts on biodiversity on a global scale. Building on existing models that seek to quantify the impacts of human activities on biodiversity, the herein proposed methodological framework consists of 2 components: a habitat factor for 14 major habitat types and the impact on the biodiversity status in those major habitat types. The habitat factor is calculated by means of indicators that characterize each habitat. The biodiversity status depends on parameters from impact categories. The impact functions, relating these different parameters to a given response in the biodiversity status, rely on expert judgments. To ensure the applicability for LCA practitioners, the components of the framework can be regionalized on a country scale for which LCA inventory data is more readily available. The weighting factors for the 14 major habitat types range from 0.63 to 1.82. By means of area weighting of the major habitat types in a country, country-specific weighting factors are calculated. In order to demonstrate the main part of the framework, examples of impact functions are given for the categories "freshwater eutrophication" and "freshwater ecotoxicity" in 1 major habitat type. The results confirm suitability of the methodological framework. The major advantages are the framework's user-friendliness, given that data can be used from LCA databases directly, and the complete inclusion of all levels of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). It is applicable for the whole world and a wide range of impact categories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:282-297.

  2. From leaf longevity to canopy seasonality: a carbon optimality phenology model for tropical evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Wu, J.; Wright, S. J.; Kitajima, K.; Pacala, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical evergreen forests play a key role in the global carbon, water and energy cycles. Despite apparent evergreenness, this biome shows strong seasonality in leaf litter and photosynthesis. Recent studies have suggested that this seasonality is not directly related to environmental variability but is dominated by seasonal changes of leaf development and senescence. Meanwhile, current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) can not capture this pattern because leaf life cycle is highly underrepresented. One challenge to model this leaf life cycle is the remarkable diversity in leaf longevity, ranging from several weeks to multiple years. Ecologists have proposed models where leaf longevity is regarded as a strategy to optimize carbon gain. However previous optimality models can not be readily integrated into TBMs because (i) there are still large biases in predicted leaf longevity and (ii) it is never tested whether the carbon optimality model can capture the observed seasonality in leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. In this study, we develop a new carbon optimality model for leaf demography. The novelty of our approach is two-fold. First, we incorporate a mechanistic photosynthesis model that can better estimate leaf carbon gain. Second, we consider the interspecific variations in leaf senescence rate, which strongly influence the modelled optimal carbon gain. We test our model with a leaf trait database for Panamanian evergreen forests. Then, we apply the model at seasonal scale and compare simulated seasonality of leaf litter and canopy photosynthesis with in-situ observations from several Amazonian forest sites. We find that (i) compared with original optimality model, the regression slope between observed and predicted leaf longevity increases from 0.15 to 1.04 in our new model and (ii) that our new model can capture the observed seasonal variations of leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. Our results suggest that the phenology in tropical evergreen

  3. Biodiversity and soil quality in agroecosystems: the use of a qualitative multi-attribute model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortet, J.; Bohanec, M.; Griffiths, B.

    2009-01-01

    In ecological impact assessment, special emphasis is put on soil biology and estimating soil quality from the observed biological parameters. The aim of this study is to propose a tool easy to use for scientists and decision makers for agroecosystems soil quality assessment using these biological...... parameters. This tool was developed as a collaboration between ECOGEN (www.ecogen.dk) soil experts and decision analysts. Methodologically, we have addressed this goal using model-based Decision Support Systems (DSS), taking the approach of qualitative multi-attribute modelling. The approach is based...... on developing various hierarchical multiattribute models that consist of qualitative attributes and utility (aggregation) functions, represented by decision rules. The assessment of soil quality is based on two main indicators: (1) soil diversity (assessed through microfauna, mesofauna and macrofauna richness...

  4. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  5. Constraining the models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, G.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ackerman, A. S.; Brient, F.; Fridlind, A. M.; Kelley, M.; Elsaesser, G.

    2017-12-01

    Low-cloud response to a warmer climate is still pointed out as being the largest source of uncertainty in the last generation of climate models. To date there is no consensus among the models on whether the tropical low cloudiness would increase or decrease in a warmer climate. In addition, it has been shown that - depending on their climate sensitivity - the models either predict deeper or shallower low clouds. Recently, several relationships between inter-model characteristics of the present-day climate and future climate changes have been highlighted. These so-called emergent constraints aim to target relevant model improvements and to constrain models' projections based on current climate observations. Here we propose to use - for the first time - 10 years of CALIPSO cloud statistics to assess the ability of the models to represent the vertical structure of tropical low clouds for abnormally warm SST. We use a simulator approach to compare observations and simulations and focus on the low-layered clouds (i.e. z fraction. Vertically, the clouds deepen namely by decreasing the cloud fraction in the lowest levels and increasing it around the top of the boundary-layer. This feature is coincident with an increase of the high-level cloud fraction (z > 6.5km). Although the models' spread is large, the multi-model mean captures the observed variations but with a smaller amplitude. We then employ the GISS model to investigate how changes in cloud parameterizations affect the response of low clouds to warmer SSTs on the one hand; and how they affect the variations of the model's cloud profiles with respect to environmental parameters on the other hand. Finally, we use CALIPSO observations to constrain the model by determining i) what set of parameters allows reproducing the observed relationships and ii) what are the consequences on the cloud feedbacks. These results point toward process-oriented constraints of low-cloud responses to surface warming and environmental

  6. Transportation costs, agricultural expansion and tropical deforestation: Theory and evidence from Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Lucich, Iván M; Villena, Mauricio G; Quinteros, María José

    2015-01-01

    The growth of urban areas adjacent to forest areas, as well as international trade growth, has accelerated the demand for food. These areas of growth have led to the deforestation of tropical forests, a process that contributes negatively to climate change, and a decline in the provision of environmental services and biodiversity. This article seeks to propose and simulate a theoretical model of optimal control at the household level. This model is used to explain the dynamics of forest loss ...

  7. Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Raia, Pasquale; Toivonen, Jaakko

    2015-12-01

    The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

  8. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-06-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Habitat allocation to maximize biodiversity: a technical description of the HAMBO model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, R.A.; Rudrum, D.P.

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of spatial allocations of nature conservation, it is necessary that a benchmark allocation can be known that achieves the maximum ecological value at given costs. This calls for an optimisation model that takes into consideration the main ecological considerations,

  10. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... in West Africa. Generic models were also developed for the forest ecosystem, and basic wood density determined for the tree species. Non-destructive sampling approach was carried out on five hundred and one sample trees to analyse stem volume and biomass. From the modelling of volume and biomass...... enabled to conclude that the non-destructive sampling was a good approach to determining reliable basic wood density. The comparative analysis of species-specific models in this study with selected generic models for tropical forests indicated low probability to identify effective generic models with good...

  11. Forest Fragmentation and Selective Logging Have Inconsistent Effects on Multiple Animal-Mediated Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleuning, Matthias; Farwig, Nina; Peters, Marcell K.; Bergsdorf, Thomas; Bleher, Bärbel; Brandl, Roland; Dalitz, Helmut; Fischer, Georg; Freund, Wolfram; Gikungu, Mary W.; Hagen, Melanie; Garcia, Francisco Hita; Kagezi, Godfrey H.; Kaib, Manfred; Kraemer, Manfred; Lung, Tobias; Schaab, Gertrud; Templin, Mathias; Uster, Dana; Wägele, J. Wolfgang; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2011-01-01

    Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the

  12. The influence of environmental forcing on biodiversity and extinction in a resource competition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakulenko, Sergey A.; Sudakov, Ivan; Mander, Luke

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we study a model of many species that compete, directly or indirectly, for a pool of common resources under the influence of periodic, stochastic, and/or chaotic environmental forcing. Using numerical simulations, we find the number and sequence of species going extinct when the community is initially packed with a large number of species of random initial densities. Thereby, any species with a density below a given threshold is regarded to be extinct.

  13. The influence of environmental forcing on biodiversity and extinction in a resource competition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakulenko, Sergey A; Sudakov, Ivan; Mander, Luke

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we study a model of many species that compete, directly or indirectly, for a pool of common resources under the influence of periodic, stochastic, and/or chaotic environmental forcing. Using numerical simulations, we find the number and sequence of species going extinct when the community is initially packed with a large number of species of random initial densities. Thereby, any species with a density below a given threshold is regarded to be extinct.

  14. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  15. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Biome-Bgc Model for Dry Tropical Forests of Vindhyan Highlands, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Raghubanshi, A. S.

    2011-08-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to projected leaf area ratio and Canopy water interception coefficient (Wint). Therefore, these parameters need more precision and attention during estimation and observation in the field studies.

  17. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF BIOME-BGC MODEL FOR DRY TROPICAL FORESTS OF VINDHYAN HIGHLANDS, INDIA

    OpenAIRE

    M. Kumar; A. S. Raghubanshi

    2012-01-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to...

  18. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available @csir.co.za; 14 15 Keywords: Bioenergy crops, Land suitability, Biodiversity, Spatial analysis, MaxEnt, 16 Conflict, Agricultural land, Spatial filters 17 18 Primary research article 19 Page 1 of 48 GCB Bioenergy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17... habitat transformation and provides 21 an objective means of mitigating potential conflict with existing land use and biodiversity. 22 23 Page 2 of 48GCB Bioenergy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32...

  19. Digital Geogames to Foster Local Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Sonja; Schaal, Steffen; Lude, Armin

    2015-01-01

    The valuing of biodiversity is considered to be a first step towards its conservation. Therefore, the aim of the BioDiv2Go project is to combine sensuous experiences discovering biodiversity with mobile technology and a game-based learning approach. Following the competence model for environmental education (Roczen et al, 2014), Geogames (location…

  20. Grassland biodiversity can pay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Seth; Isbell, Forest; Polasky, Stephen; Catford, Jane A; Tilman, David

    2018-04-10

    The biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) literature provides strong evidence of the biophysical basis for the potential profitability of greater diversity but does not address questions of optimal management. BEF studies typically focus on the ecosystem outputs produced by randomly assembled communities that only differ in their biodiversity levels, measured by indices such as species richness. Landholders, however, do not randomly select species to plant; they choose particular species that collectively maximize profits. As such, their interest is not in comparing the average performance of randomly assembled communities at each level of biodiversity but rather comparing the best-performing communities at each diversity level. Assessing the best-performing mixture requires detailed accounting of species' identities and relative abundances. It also requires accounting for the financial cost of individual species' seeds, and the economic value of changes in the quality, quantity, and variability of the species' collective output-something that existing multifunctionality indices fail to do. This study presents an assessment approach that integrates the relevant factors into a single, coherent framework. It uses ecological production functions to inform an economic model consistent with the utility-maximizing decisions of a potentially risk-averse private landowner. We demonstrate the salience and applicability of the framework using data from an experimental grassland to estimate production relationships for hay and carbon storage. For that case, our results suggest that even a risk-neutral, profit-maximizing landowner would favor a highly diverse mix of species, with optimal species richness falling between the low levels currently found in commercial grasslands and the high levels found in natural grasslands.

  1. A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amatulli, Giuseppe; Domisch, Sami; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Parmentier, Benoit; Ranipeta, Ajay; Malczyk, Jeremy; Jetz, Walter

    2018-03-01

    Topographic variation underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in hydrology, climatology, geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale research applications, however to date, such datasets are unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED2010 and near-global 90 m SRTM4.1dev to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile/tangential curvature, first/second order partial derivative, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches. While a cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at Data Citation 1 and for download and visualization at http://www.earthenv.org/topography.

  2. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  3. Maximizing Amazonia's Ecosystem Services: Juggling the potential for carbon storage, agricultural yield and biodiversity in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, C. S.; Foley, J. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Polasky, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon is not only an exceptionally biodiverse and carbon-rich tract of tropical forest, it is also a case study in land use change. Over the next forty years it will continue to experience pressure from an urbanizing and increasingly affluent populace: under a business-as-usual scenario, global cropland, pasture and biofuels systems will carry on expanding, while the Amazon's carbon storage potential will likely become another viable revenue source under REDD+. Balancing those competing land use pressures ought also take into account Amazonia's high - but heterogeneous - biodiversity. Knowing where Amazonia has opportunities to make efficient or optimal trade offs between carbon storage, agricultural production and biodiversity can allow policymakers to direct or influence LUC drivers. This analysis uses a spatially-explicit model that takes climate and management into account to quantify the potential agricultural yield of both the Amazon's most important agricultural commodities - sugar, soy and maize - as well as several that are going to come into increasing prominence, including palm oil. In addition, it maps the potential for carbon to be stored in forest biomass and relative species richness across Amazonia. We then compare carbon storage, agricultural yield and species richness and identify areas where efficient trade offs occur between food, carbon, and biodiversity - three critical ecosystem goods and services provided by the world's largest tropical forest.

  4. MODELKEY - Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brack, W.; Bakker, J.; de Deckere, E.; Deerenberg, C.; van Gils, J.; Hein, M.; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, B.; Lamoree, M.; Lek, S.; de Alda, M. J. L.; Marcomini, A.; Munoz, I.; Rattei, S.; Segner, H.; Thomas, K.; von der Ohe, P. C.; Westrich, B.; de Zwart, D.; Schmitt-Jansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2005), s. 252-256 ISSN 0944-1344 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : biodiversity * EU- Projects * fish communities Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2005

  5. Business Meets Biodiversity Conference 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vollaard, B.; Man, M. de; Verweij, P.A.

    2012-01-01

    How can companies successfully integrate the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity into their business models? This was the central question at the international conference ‘Business Meets Biodiversity’ held in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on June 27th 2012. The organizing committee,

  6. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  7. Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204

  8. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  9. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  10. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  11. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  12. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  13. MONITORING CANOPY AND AIR TEMPERATURE OF DOMINANT VEGETATION IN TROPICAL SEMI-ARID USING BIOCLIMATIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josiclêda Domiciano Galvíncio

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Typical vegetation of arid environments consist of few dominant species highly threatened by climate change. Jurema preta (Mimosa tenuiflora (Willd. Poiret is one of these successful species that now is dominant in extensive semiarid areas in the world. The development of a simple bioclimatic model using climate change scenarios based on optimistic and pessimistic predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC shown as a simple tool to predict possible responses of dominant species under dry land conditions and low functional biodiversity. The simple bioclimatic model proved satisfactory in creating climate change scenarios and impacts on the canopy temperature of Jurema preta in semiarid Brazil. The bioclimatic model was efficient to obtain spatially relevant estimations of air temperature from determinations of the surface temperature using satellite images. The model determined that the average difference of 5oC between the air temperature and the leaf temperature for Jurema preta, and an increase of 3oC in air temperature, promote an increase of 2oC in leaf temperature. It lead to disturbances in vital physiological mechanisms in the leaf, mainly the photosynthesis and efficient use of water.

  14. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  15. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lamy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer Morgenstern et al.(2008. However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR Bais et al.(2015. Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere Erickson et al.(2015, especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle Hader et al.(2007. It can affect phytoplankton productivity Smith and Cullen(1995. This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007. Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014, which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009. Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E, in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC. In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993 and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016

  16. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Kévin; Portafaix, Thierry; Brogniez, Colette; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Bencherif, Hassan; Morel, Béatrice; Pazmino, Andrea; Metzger, Jean Marc; Auriol, Frédérique; Deroo, Christine; Duflot, Valentin; Goloub, Philippe; Long, Charles N.

    2018-01-01

    Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR) is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer (Morgenstern et al., 2008). However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR (Bais et al., 2015). Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere (Erickson et al., 2015), especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle (Hader et al., 2007). It can affect phytoplankton productivity (Smith and Cullen, 1995). This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007). Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014), which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009). Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E), in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993) and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016. Only

  17. Biodiversity of Macrofauna Associated with Sponges across Ecological Gradients in the Central Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Kandler, Nora

    2015-01-01

    Between 33 and 91 percent of marine species are currently undescribed, with the majority occurring in tropical and offshore environments. Sponges act as important microhabitats and promote biodiversity by harboring a wide variety of macrofauna

  18. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  19. Business and biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Meyer; Lehmann, Martin; Christensen, Per

    Despite the overall importance of biodiversity, the quality measures of biodiversity show worrying figures. Numerous human impacts on nature impose serious hazard to its inherent diversity. This expansion of human activities leaves the battle against loss of biodiversity to be a great challenge......, but the effort has until now considered biodiversity actions relatively little, compared to other areas such as e.g. climate related actions. Nevertheless, the opportunity for businesses to meet their responsibilities and lift a share of the challenge is far from being just a romantic thought. Nor...... is the challenge of engaging businesses in responsible actions. The core challenge is to create awareness of the environmental phenomenon biodiversity, inform about the significance of business involvement, and encourage the business world to participate in this process of protecting biodiversity as the valuable...

  20. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  1. Evaluating climate model performance in the tropics with retrievals of water isotopic composition from Aura TES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert; Kim, Daehyun; Kelley, Max; LeGrande, Allegra; Worden, John; Schmidt, Gavin

    2014-05-01

    Observational and theoretical arguments suggest that satellite retrievals of the stable isotope composition of water vapor could be useful for climate model evaluation. The isotopic composition of water vapor is controlled by the same processes that control water vapor amount, but the observed distribution of isotopic composition is distinct from amount itself . This is due to the fractionation that occurs between the abundant H216O isotopes (isotopologues) and the rare and heavy H218O and HDO isotopes during evaporation and condensation. The fractionation physics are much simpler than the underlying moist physics; discrepancies between observed and modeled isotopic fields are more likely due to problems in the latter. Isotopic measurements therefore have the potential for identifying problems that might not be apparent from more conventional measurements. Isotopic tracers have existed in climate models since the 1980s but it is only since the mid 2000s that there have been enough data for meaningful model evaluation in this sense, in the troposphere at least. We have evaluated the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model over the tropics against water isotope (HDO/H2O) retrievals from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), alongside more conventional measurements. A small ensemble of experiments was performed with physics perturbations to the cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes, done in the context of the normal model development process. We examined the degree to which model-data agreement could be used to constrain a select group of internal processes in the model, namely condensate evaporation, entrainment strength, and moist convective air mass flux. All are difficult to parameterize, but exert strong influence over model performance. We found that the water isotope composition was significantly more sensitive to physics changes than precipitation, temperature or relative humidity through the depth of the tropical troposphere. Among the

  2. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2004-01-01

    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  3. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  4. Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M

    2017-01-01

    With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

  5. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  6. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  7. Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

    2017-09-01

    Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

  8. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  9. Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F. N.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Wickel, A. J.

    1999-12-01

    Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location—the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico—66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy climatic data were collected in 1996 and analysed using the Rutter and Gash models of rainfall interception. Throughfall occurred on 80% of the days distributed over 80 rainfall events. Measured interception loss was 50% of gross precipitation. When Penman-Monteith based estimates for the wet canopy evaporation rate (0.11 mm h -1 on average) and a canopy storage of 1.15 mm were used, both models severely underestimated measured interception loss. A detailed analysis of four storms using the Rutter model showed that optimizing the model for the wet canopy evaporation component yielded much better results than increasing the canopy storage capacity. However, the Rutter model failed to properly estimate throughfall amounts during an exceptionally large event. The analytical model, on the other hand, was capable of representing interception during the extreme event, but once again optimizing wet canopy evaporation rates produced a much better fit than optimizing the canopy storage capacity. As such, the present results support the idea that it is primarily a high rate of evaporation from a wet canopy that is responsible for the observed high interception losses.

  10. Autochthonous white rot fungi from the tropical forest: Potential of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-06-17

    Jun 17, 2008 ... local biodiversity in tropical area appears as a potentially productive approach for identifying promising ... senting thirteen species and ten different genera (Table ..... which has clear connexions with white biotechnology.

  11. Spatial patterns of primary productivity derived from the Dynamic Habitat Indices predict patterns of species richness and distributions in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttidate, Naparat

    Humans are changing the Earth's ecosystems, which has profound consequences for biodiversity. To understand how species respond to these changes, biodiversity science requires accurate assessments of biodiversity. However, biodiversity assessments are still limited in tropical regions. The Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), derived from satellite data, summarize dynamic patterns of annual primary productivity: (a) cumulative annual productivity, (b) minimum annual productivity, and (c) seasonal variation in productivity. The DHIs have been successfully used in temperate regions, but not yet in the tropics. My goal was to evaluate the importance of primary productivity measured via the DHIs for assessing patterns of species richness and distributions in Thailand. First, I assessed the relationships between the DHIs and tropical bird species richness. I also evaluated the complementarity of the DHIs and topography, climate, latitudinal gradients, habitat heterogeneity, and habitat area in explaining bird species richness. I found that among three DHIs, cumulative annual productivity was the most important factor in explaining bird species richness and that the DHIs outperformed other environmental variables. Second, I developed texture measures derive from DHI cumulative annual productivity, and compared them to habitat composition and fragmentation as predictors of tropical forest bird distributions. I found that adding texture measures to habitat composition and fragmentation models improved the prediction of tropical bird distributions, especially area- and edge-sensitive tropical forest bird species. Third, I predicted the effects of trophic interactions between primary productivity, prey, and predators in relation to habitat connectivity for Indochinese tigers (Panthera tigris). I found that including trophic interactions improved habitat suitability models for tigers. However, tiger habitat is highly fragmented with few dispersal corridors. I also identified

  12. Recovering biodiversity knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, G.W.; Smolders, H.; Sours, S.; Pou, S.

    2005-01-01

    Cambodian¿s civil wars have seriously affected the country¿s agro-biodiversity and the farmers¿ traditional knowledge in this field. The PEDIGREA project aims at conserving on-farm agro-biodiversity conservation and in Cambodia it focuses on vegetable diversity. It tries to link the preservation of

  13. In Defence of Biodiversity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Archer, Alfred; Burch Brown, Joanna

    2017-01-01

    The concept of biodiversity has played a central role within conservation biology over the last thirty years. Precisely how it should be understood, however, is a matter of ongoing debate. In this paper we defend what we call a classic multidimensional conception of biodiversity. We begin by

  14. Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Y.; Kim, D.; Camargo, S. J.; Wing, A. A.; Sobel, A. H.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activity with global climate models (GCMs) remains a challenging problem. While some GCMs are able to simulate TC activity that is in good agreement with the observations, many other models exhibit strong biases. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing of the GCM simulations tends to improve the characteristics of simulated TCs, but this enhancement alone does not necessarily lead to greater skill in simulating TC activity. This study uses process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that could explain why some GCM simulations are able to produce more realistic TC activity than others. The diagnostics examine how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled at individual grid points, which yields useful information into how convective parameterizations interact with resolved model dynamics. These diagnostics share similarities with those originally developed to examine the Madden-Julian Oscillations in climate models. This study will examine TCs in eight different GCM simulations performed at NOAA/GFDL, NCAR and NASA that have different horizontal resolutions and ocean coupling. Preliminary results suggest that stronger TCs are closely associated with greater rainfall - thus greater diabatic heating - in the inner-core regions of the storms, which is consistent with previous theoretical studies. Other storm characteristics that can be used to infer why GCM simulations with comparable horizontal grid spacings produce different TC activity will be examined.

  15. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varsha Vijay

    Full Text Available Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  16. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

  17. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

    2010-08-17

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

  18. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  19. Development and application of a crossbreeding simulation model for goat production systems in tropical regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukahara, Y; Oishi, K; Hirooka, H

    2011-12-01

    A deterministic simulation model was developed to estimate biological production efficiency and to evaluate goat crossbreeding systems under tropical conditions. The model involves 5 production systems: pure indigenous, first filial generations (F1), backcross (BC), composite breeds of F1 (CMP(F1)), and BC (CMP(BC)). The model first simulates growth, reproduction, lactation, and energy intakes of a doe and a kid on a 1-d time step at the individual level and thereafter the outputs are integrated into the herd dynamics program. The ability of the model to simulate individual performances was tested under a base situation. The simulation results represented daily BW changes, ME requirements, and milk yield and the estimates were within the range of published data. Two conventional goat production scenarios (an intensive milk production scenario and an integrated goat and oil palm production scenario) in Malaysia were examined. The simulation results of the intensive milk production scenario showed the greater production efficiency of the CMP(BC) and CMP(F1) systems and decreased production efficiency of the F1 and BC systems. The results of the integrated goat and oil palm production scenario showed that the production efficiency and stocking rate were greater for the indigenous goats than for the crossbreeding systems.

  20. Urban UV environment in a sub-tropical megacity – A measurement and modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ka-Ming Wai

    Full Text Available The variations of solar total UV (UVA + UVB exposure rates in a megacity featured with high-rise buildings during summer months were measured and relevant model predictions were evaluated. The maximum pedestrian-level total solar UV exposure rate was less than the un-obstructed exposure rate at any time, attributing to the prevailing reduction in the diffuse solar radiation due to the obstruction effects of distant buildings. Comparing with the measurements, our coupled model well captured the spatial and temporal variations of the reduction of UV exposure rates. By measurements, large reduction in the solar total UV exposure rate down to 12% of un-obstructed exposure rate due to the building obstruction effects was found, agreeing with our previous simulation results and results from an Australian megacity. On the other hand, building reflection from reflective curtain walls could reach 23% of the un-obstructed solar total UV exposure rate at the ground level. This implied improper building design creating additional harmful effects of solar UV radiation on the environment. The coupled model was also applied to predict the urban UV exposure rates during a tropical-cyclone induced aerosol episode. A well-evaluated urban solar UV model is an important tool for sustainable urban design.

  1. A Python Implementation of an Intermediate-Level Tropical Circulation Model and Implications for How Modeling Science is Done

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiledlanguages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionalityavailable with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Pythonto create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran, to optimize model performance but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

  2. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel; Cabral, Juliano

    2016-01-01

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration–extinction dynamics1, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island...... sea levels3, 4 and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity5, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory2, 6. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed5, 7...

  3. Regeneration in natural and logged tropical rain forest : modelling seed dispersal and regeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulft, Lambertus Henricus van

    2004-01-01

    Regeneration and disturbance are thought to play key roles in the maintenance of the high tree species diversity in tropical rain forests. Nevertheless, the earliest stages in the regeneration of tropical rain forest trees, from seed production to established seedlings, have received little

  4. A Biodiversity Indicators Dashboard: Addressing Challenges to Monitoring Progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets Using Disaggregated Global Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xuemei; Smyth, Regan L.; Young, Bruce E.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Sánchez de Lozada, Alexandra; Bubb, Philip; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Larsen, Frank W.; Hamilton, Healy; Hansen, Matthew C.; Turner, Will R.

    2014-01-01

    Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's “Aichi Targets”. These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity “dashboard” – a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the

  5. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xuemei; Smyth, Regan L; Young, Bruce E; Brooks, Thomas M; Sánchez de Lozada, Alexandra; Bubb, Philip; Butchart, Stuart H M; Larsen, Frank W; Hamilton, Healy; Hansen, Matthew C; Turner, Will R

    2014-01-01

    Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the protection of

  6. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuemei Han

    Full Text Available Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate, state of species (Red List Index, conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas, and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision. Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the

  7. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2013-04-01

    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  8. Potential impact of genetically modified Lepidoptera-resistant Brassica napus in biodiversity hotspots: Sicily as a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manachini, Barbara; Bazan, Giuseppe; Schicchi, Rosario

    2018-03-14

    The general increase of the cultivation and trade of Bt transgenic plants resistant to Lepidoptera pests raises concerns regarding the conservation of animal and plant biodiversity. Demand for biofuels has increased the cultivation and importation of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), including transgenic lines. In environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for its potential future cultivation as well as for food and feed uses, the impact on wild Brassicaeae relatives and on non-target Lepidoptera should be assessed. Here we consider the potential exposure of butterflies as results of possible cultivation or naturalization of spilled seed in Sicily (Italy). Diurnal Lepidoptera, which are pollinators, can be exposed directly to the insecticidal proteins as larvae (mainly of Pieridae) through the host and through the pollen that can deposit on other host plants. Adults can be exposed via pollen and nectar. The flight periods of butterflies were recorded, and they were found to overlap for about 90% of the flowering period of B. napus for the majority of the species. In addition, B. napus has a high potential to hybridise with endemic taxa belonging to the B. oleracea group. This could lead to an exposure of non-target Lepidoptera if introgression of the Bt gene into a wild population happens. A rank of the risk for butterflies and wild relatives of oilseed rape is given. We conclude that, in environmental risk assessments, attention should be paid to plant-insect interaction especially in a biodiversity hotspot such as Sicily. © 2018 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  9. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  10. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

    2015-03-01

    Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Plant Family-Specific Impacts of Petroleum Pollution on Biodiversity and Leaf Chlorophyll Content in the Amazon Rainforest of Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, Paul; Tansey, Kevin; Balzter, Heiko; Tellkamp, Markus

    2017-01-01

    In recent decades petroleum pollution in the tropical rainforest has caused significant environmental damage in vast areas of the Amazon region. At present the extent of this damage is not entirely clear. Little is known about the specific impacts of petroleum pollution on tropical vegetation. In a field expedition to the Ecuadorian Amazon over 1100 leaf samples were collected from tropical trees in polluted and unpolluted sites. Plant families were identified for 739 of the leaf samples and compared between sites. Plant biodiversity indices show a reduction of the plant biodiversity when the site was affected by petroleum pollution. In addition, reflectance and transmittance were measured with a field spectroradiometer for every leaf sample and leaf chlorophyll content was estimated using reflectance model inversion with the radiative tranfer model PROSPECT. Four of the 15 plant families that are most representative of the ecoregion (Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Rubiaceae and Euphorbiaceae) had significantly lower leaf chlorophyll content in the polluted areas compared to the unpolluted areas. This suggests that these families are more sensitive to petroleum pollution. The polluted site is dominated by Melastomataceae and Rubiaceae, suggesting that these plant families are particularly competitive in the presence of pollution. This study provides evidence of a decrease of plant diversity and richness caused by petroleum pollution and of a plant family-specific response of leaf chlorophyll content to petroleum pollution in the Ecuadorian Amazon using information from field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modelling.

  12. Plant Family-Specific Impacts of Petroleum Pollution on Biodiversity and Leaf Chlorophyll Content in the Amazon Rainforest of Ecuador.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Arellano

    Full Text Available In recent decades petroleum pollution in the tropical rainforest has caused significant environmental damage in vast areas of the Amazon region. At present the extent of this damage is not entirely clear. Little is known about the specific impacts of petroleum pollution on tropical vegetation. In a field expedition to the Ecuadorian Amazon over 1100 leaf samples were collected from tropical trees in polluted and unpolluted sites. Plant families were identified for 739 of the leaf samples and compared between sites. Plant biodiversity indices show a reduction of the plant biodiversity when the site was affected by petroleum pollution. In addition, reflectance and transmittance were measured with a field spectroradiometer for every leaf sample and leaf chlorophyll content was estimated using reflectance model inversion with the radiative tranfer model PROSPECT. Four of the 15 plant families that are most representative of the ecoregion (Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Rubiaceae and Euphorbiaceae had significantly lower leaf chlorophyll content in the polluted areas compared to the unpolluted areas. This suggests that these families are more sensitive to petroleum pollution. The polluted site is dominated by Melastomataceae and Rubiaceae, suggesting that these plant families are particularly competitive in the presence of pollution. This study provides evidence of a decrease of plant diversity and richness caused by petroleum pollution and of a plant family-specific response of leaf chlorophyll content to petroleum pollution in the Ecuadorian Amazon using information from field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modelling.

  13. Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodov, B.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

  14. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media

  15. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  16. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

  17. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  18. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

  19. Knowledge Transposition from Tropical Fish Serum Proteins to Fundamental Education Students Through Biochemical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V.M. Maciel de Carvalho

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The subject was represented and discussed at The National Week of Science and Technology, UFPE, an initiative from The Ministry of Science and Technology to encourage children and people in science and technology activities. The work aimed to renew the importance to transmit knowledge from simple, imaginative, biochemical models and interactive teaching. The stand tool contained an aquarium with fishes, five scale models showing peptide bond, carbohydrate inhibited lectin molecule, hemagglutination reaction, lectin-bacterium surface interaction and enzyme-substract-inhibitor. Posters described tropical fish importance and methods applied to obtain fish serum and organs to purify lectins and protein inhibitors as well as to extract tissue DNA; notions were transmitted on fish immunology and diseases. The students were attracted and impressed with the exotic fishes most cultivated in Brazil; they asked if it is necessary to kill the fish to extract lectin and about lectin importance. Students were also interested to know if all fish enzyme/inhibitors are favorable to the own fish organism. The work succeeded to inform and stimulate future scientists in the field and to awake their scientific curiosity.

  20. The Application of Barnes Filter to Positioning the Center of Landed Tropical Cyclone in Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Zou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available After a tropical cyclone (TC making landfall, the numerical model output sea level pressure (SLP presents many small-scale perturbations which significantly influence the positioning of the TC center. To fix the problem, Barnes filter with weighting parameters C=2500 and G=0.35 is used to remove these perturbations. A case study of TC Fung-Wong which landed China in 2008 shows that Barnes filter not only cleanly removes these perturbations, but also well preserves the TC signals. Meanwhile, the centers (track obtained from SLP processed with Barnes filter are much closer to the observations than that from SLP without Barnes filter. Based on the distance difference (DD between the TC center determined by SLP with/without Barnes filter and observation, statistics analysis of 12 TCs which landed China during 2005–2015 shows that in most cases (about 85% the DDs are small (between −30 km and 30 km, while in a few cases (about 15% the DDs are large (greater than 30 km even 70 km. This further verifies that the TC centers identified from SLP with Barnes filter are more accurate compared to that directly obtained from model output SLP. Moreover, the TC track identified with Barnes filter is much smoother than that without Barnes filter.

  1. The biodiversity from Bogota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvachi Zambrano, Byron

    2002-01-01

    It is about the flora biodiversity and fauna that it occupied the savannah of Bogota originally, about the flora and extinct fauna and of the flora and fauna that still persist in spite of the colonization

  2. Biodiversity and global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

    1992-01-01

    The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

  3. Birds as biodiversity surrogates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Frank Wugt; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft; Balmford, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    1. Most biodiversity is still unknown, and therefore, priority areas for conservation typically are identified based on the presence of surrogates, or indicator groups. Birds are commonly used as surrogates of biodiversity owing to the wide availability of relevant data and their broad popular...... and applications.?Good surrogates of biodiversity are necessary to help identify conservation areas that will be effective in preventing species extinctions. Birds perform fairly well as surrogates in cases where birds are relatively speciose, but overall effectiveness will be improved by adding additional data...... from other taxa, in particular from range-restricted species. Conservation solutions with focus on birds as biodiversity surrogate could therefore benefit from also incorporating species data from other taxa....

  4. Funding begets biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil David; Gereau, Roy E.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Effective conservation of biodiversity relies on an unbiased knowledge of its distribution. Conservation priority assessments are typically based on the levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Areas identified as important receive the majority of conservation investments, often...... facilitating further research that results in more species discoveries. Here, we test whether there is circularity between funding and perceived biodiversity, which may reinforce the conservation status of areas already perceived to be important while other areas with less initial funding may remain overlooked......, and variances decomposed in partial regressions. Cross-correlations are used to assess whether perceived biodiversity drives funding or vice versa. Results Funding explained 65% of variation in perceived biodiversity patterns – six times more variation than accounted for by 34 candidate environmental factors...

  5. Dimensions of biodiversity loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palma, De Adriana; Kuhlmann, Michael; Bugter, Rob; Ferrier, Simon; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Potts, Simon G.; Roberts, Stuart P.M.; Schweiger, Oliver; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more

  6. Impact of biodiversity-climate futures on primary production and metabolism in a model benthic estuarine system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Natalie; Bulling, Mark T; Solan, Martin; Raffaelli, Dave; White, Piran C L; Paterson, David M

    2011-02-14

    Understanding the effects of anthropogenically-driven changes in global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and biodiversity on the functionality of marine ecosystems is crucial for predicting and managing the associated impacts. Coastal ecosystems are important sources of carbon (primary production) to shelf waters and play a vital role in global nutrient cycling. These systems are especially vulnerable to the effects of human activities and will be the first areas impacted by rising sea levels. Within these coastal ecosystems, microalgal assemblages (microphytobenthos: MPB) are vital for autochthonous carbon fixation. The level of in situ production by MPB mediates the net carbon cycling of transitional ecosystems between net heterotrophic or autotrophic metabolism. In this study, we examine the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations (370, 600, and 1000 ppmv), temperature (6°C, 12°C, and 18°C) and invertebrate biodiversity on MPB biomass in experimental systems. We assembled communities of three common grazing invertebrates (Hydrobia ulvae, Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor) in monoculture and in all possible multispecies combinations. This experimental design specifically addresses interactions between the selected climate change variables and any ecological consequences caused by changes in species composition or richness. The effects of elevated CO(2) concentration, temperature and invertebrate diversity were not additive, rather they interacted to determine MPB biomass, and overall this effect was negative. Diversity effects were underpinned by strong species composition effects, illustrating the importance of individual species identity. Overall, our findings suggest that in natural systems, the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and any associated changes in invertebrate assemblage structure are likely to reduce MPB biomass. Furthermore, these effects would be sufficient to affect the

  7. Impact of biodiversity-climate futures on primary production and metabolism in a model benthic estuarine system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaelli Dave

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the effects of anthropogenically-driven changes in global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and biodiversity on the functionality of marine ecosystems is crucial for predicting and managing the associated impacts. Coastal ecosystems are important sources of carbon (primary production to shelf waters and play a vital role in global nutrient cycling. These systems are especially vulnerable to the effects of human activities and will be the first areas impacted by rising sea levels. Within these coastal ecosystems, microalgal assemblages (microphytobenthos: MPB are vital for autochthonous carbon fixation. The level of in situ production by MPB mediates the net carbon cycling of transitional ecosystems between net heterotrophic or autotrophic metabolism. In this study, we examine the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (370, 600, and 1000 ppmv, temperature (6°C, 12°C, and 18°C and invertebrate biodiversity on MPB biomass in experimental systems. We assembled communities of three common grazing invertebrates (Hydrobia ulvae, Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor in monoculture and in all possible multispecies combinations. This experimental design specifically addresses interactions between the selected climate change variables and any ecological consequences caused by changes in species composition or richness. Results The effects of elevated CO2 concentration, temperature and invertebrate diversity were not additive, rather they interacted to determine MPB biomass, and overall this effect was negative. Diversity effects were underpinned by strong species composition effects, illustrating the importance of individual species identity. Conclusions Overall, our findings suggest that in natural systems, the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and any associated changes in invertebrate assemblage structure are likely to reduce MPB biomass. Furthermore

  8. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  9. Tropical Rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigh, Ronald B.; Nations, James D.

    1980-01-01

    Presented is a summary of scientific knowledge about the rainforest environment, a tropical ecosystem in danger of extermination. Topics include the current state of tropical rainforests, the causes of rainforest destruction, and alternatives of rainforest destruction. (BT)

  10. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, A.; Burgess, N.D.; Milledge, S.A.H.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of similar to 0.5 Pg.y(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns...... of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers...... dependence on forest based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity...

  11. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  12. A model for the identification of tropical weather systems over South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    drinie

    2002-07-03

    Jul 3, 2002 ... with, these two high-pressure systems, controls to a large extent, the weather of ... researchers provided general rules to differentiate between tropical- ..... inclusion of this graph therefore does not serve as a verification of.

  13. The carbon fluxes in different successional stages: modelling the dynamics of tropical montane forests in South Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Paulick

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon (C cycle. However, tropical montane forests have been studied less than tropical lowland forests, and their role in carbon storage is not well understood. Montane forests are highly endangered due to logging, land-use and climate change. Our objective was to analyse how the carbon balance changes during forest succession. Methods In this study, we used a method to estimate local carbon balances that combined forest inventory data with process-based forest models. We utilised such a forest model to study the carbon balance of a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador, comparing two topographical slope positions (ravines and lower slopes vs upper slopes and ridges. Results The simulation results showed that the forest acts as a carbon sink with a maximum net ecosystem exchange (NEE of 9.3 Mg C∙(ha∙yr−1 during its early successional stage (0–100 years. In the late successional stage, the simulated NEE fluctuated around zero and had a variation of 0.77 Mg C∙(ha∙yr –1. The simulated variability of the NEE was within the range of the field data. We discovered several forest attributes (e.g., basal area or the relative amount of pioneer trees that can serve as predictors for NEE for young forest stands (0–100 years but not for those in the late successional stage (500–1,000 years. In case of young forest stands these correlations are high, especially between stand basal area and NEE. Conclusion In this study, we used an Ecuadorian study site as an example of how to successfully link a forest model with forest inventory data, for estimating stem-diameter distributions, biomass and aboveground net primary productivity. To conclude, this study shows that process-based forest models can be used to investigate the carbon balance of tropical montane forests. With this model it is possible to find hidden relationships between forest attributes and forest carbon fluxes

  14. Determination of chloromethane and dichloromethane in a tropical terrestrial mangrove forest in Brazil by measurements and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolusu, S. R.; Schlünzen, K. H.; Grawe, D.; Seifert, R.

    2018-01-01

    Chloromethane (CH3Cl) and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) are known to have both natural and anthropogenic sources to the atmosphere. From recent studies it is known that tropical and sub tropical plants are primary sources of CH3Cl in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the biogenic emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves, field measurement were conducted in a tropical mangrove forest on the coast of Brazil. To the best of our knowledge these field measurements were the first of its kind conducted in the tropical mangrove ecosystem of Braganca. A mesoscale atmospheric model, MEsoscale TRAnsport and fluid (Stream) model (METRAS), was used to simulate passive tracers concentrations and to study the dependency of concentrations on type of emission function and meteorology. Model simulated concentrations were normalized using the observed field data. With the help of the mesoscale model results and the observed data the mangrove emissions were estimated at the local scale. By using this bottom-up approach the global emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves were quantified. The emission range obtained with different emission functions and different meteorology are 4-7 Gg yr-1 for CH3Cl and 1-2 Gg yr2 for CH2Cl2. Based on the present study the mangroves contribute 0.3 percent of CH2Cl2 and 0.2 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. This study corroborates the study by Manley et al. (2007) which estimated that mangroves produce 0.3 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. Although they contribute a small percentage in the global budget, their long lifetime enables them to contribute to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. From the detailed analyses of the model results it can be concluded that meteorology has a larger influence on the variability of concentrations than the temporal variability of the emission function.

  15. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

    2018-04-01

    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

  16. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew P. Adams; Catherine J. Collier; Sven Uthicke; Yan X. Ow; Lucas Langlois; Katherine R. O’Brien

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluat...

  17. Modelling the spatial behaviour of a tropical tuna purse seine fleet.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim K Davies

    Full Text Available Industrial tuna fisheries operate in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but concerns over sustainability and environmental impacts of these fisheries have resulted in increased scrutiny of how they are managed. An important but often overlooked factor in the success or failure of tuna fisheries management is the behaviour of fishers and fishing fleets. Uncertainty in how a fishing fleet will respond to management or other influences can be reduced by anticipating fleet behaviour, although to date there has been little research directed at understanding and anticipating the human dimension of tuna fisheries. The aim of this study was to address gaps in knowledge of the behaviour of tuna fleets, using the Indian Ocean tropical tuna purse seine fishery as a case study. We use statistical modelling to examine the factors that influence the spatial behaviour of the purse seine fleet at broad spatiotemporal scales. This analysis reveals very high consistency between years in the use of seasonal fishing grounds by the fleet, as well as a forcing influence of biophysical ocean conditions on the distribution of fishing effort. These findings suggest strong inertia in the spatial behaviour of the fleet, which has important implications for predicting the response of the fleet to natural events or management measures (e.g., spatial closures.

  18. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  19. An expert system model for mapping tropical wetlands and peatlands reveals South America as the largest contributor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumbricht, Thomas; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Verchot, Louis; Herold, Martin; Wittmann, Florian; Householder, Ethan; Herold, Nadine; Murdiyarso, Daniel

    2017-09-01

    Wetlands are important providers of ecosystem services and key regulators of climate change. They positively contribute to global warming through their greenhouse gas emissions, and negatively through the accumulation of organic material in histosols, particularly in peatlands. Our understanding of wetlands' services is currently constrained by limited knowledge on their distribution, extent, volume, interannual flood variability and disturbance levels. We present an expert system approach to estimate wetland and peatland areas, depths and volumes, which relies on three biophysical indices related to wetland and peat formation: (1) long-term water supply exceeding atmospheric water demand; (2) annually or seasonally water-logged soils; and (3) a geomorphological position where water is supplied and retained. Tropical and subtropical wetlands estimates reach 4.7 million km 2 (Mkm 2 ). In line with current understanding, the American continent is the major contributor (45%), and Brazil, with its Amazonian interfluvial region, contains the largest tropical wetland area (800,720 km 2 ). Our model suggests, however, unprecedented extents and volumes of peatland in the tropics (1.7 Mkm 2 and 7,268 (6,076-7,368) km 3 ), which more than threefold current estimates. Unlike current understanding, our estimates suggest that South America and not Asia contributes the most to tropical peatland area and volume (ca. 44% for both) partly related to some yet unaccounted extended deep deposits but mainly to extended but shallow peat in the Amazon Basin. Brazil leads the peatland area and volume contribution. Asia hosts 38% of both tropical peat area and volume with Indonesia as the main regional contributor and still the holder of the deepest and most extended peat areas in the tropics. Africa hosts more peat than previously reported but climatic and topographic contexts leave it as the least peat-forming continent. Our results suggest large biases in our current understanding of

  20. The drift-flux asymptotic limit of baro-tropic two-phase two-pressure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambroso, A.; Galie, Th.; Chalons, Ch.; Coquel, F.; Godlewski, E.; Raviart, P.A.; Seguin, N.; Coquel, F.

    2008-01-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of baro-tropic two-phase two-pressure models, with pressure relaxation, drag force and external forces. Using Chapman-Enskog expansions close to the expected equilibrium, a drift-flux model with a Darcy type closure law is obtained. Also, restricting this closure law to permanent flows (defined as steady flows in some Lagrangian frame), we can obtain a drift-flux model with an algebraic closure law, in the spirit of Zuber-Findlay models. The example of a two-phase flow in a vertical pipe is described. (authors)

  1. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  2. Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2012-07-15

    Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

  3. Spatio-temporal dynamics of the tropical rain forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chave, J. [CEN Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Service de Physique de l' Etat Condense

    2000-07-01

    Mechanisms which drive the dynamics of forest ecosystems are complex, from seedling establishment to pollination, and seed dispersal by animals, running water or wind. These processes are more complex when the ecosystem shelters a large number of species and of vegetative forms, as it is the case in the tropical rainforest. To take them into account, we must develop and use models. I present a review of the fundamental mechanisms for the of a natural forest dynamics - photosynthesis, tree growth, recruitment and mortality - as well as a description of the past and of the present of tropical rainforests. This information is used to develop a spatially-explicit and individual-based forest model. Simplified models are deduced from it, and they serve to address more specific issues, such as the resilience of the forest to climate disturbances, or savanna-forest dynamics. The last topic is related to the spatio-temporal description of tropical plant biodiversity. A detailed introduction to the problem is provided, and models accounting for the maintenance of diversity are compared. These models include non spatial as well a spatial approaches (branching anihilating random walks and voter model with mutation). (orig.)

  4. Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2003-01-01

    The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

  5. TEK and biodiversity management in agroforestry systems of different socio-ecological contexts of the Tehuacán Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo-Ramos, Mariana; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro

    2016-07-22

    Transformation of natural ecosystems into intensive agriculture is a main factor causing biodiversity loss worldwide. Agroforestry systems (AFS) may maintain biodiversity, ecosystem benefits and human wellbeing, they have therefore high potential for concealing production and conservation. However, promotion of intensive agriculture and disparagement of TEK endanger their permanence. A high diversity of AFS still exist in the world and their potentialities vary with the socio-ecological contexts. We analysed AFS in tropical, temperate, and arid environments, of the Tehuacan Valley, Mexico, to investigate how their capacity varies to conserve biodiversity and role of TEK influencing differences in those contexts. We hypothesized that biodiversity in AFS is related to that of forests types associated and the vigour of TEK and management. We conducted studies in a matrix of environments and human cultures in the Tehuacán Valley. In addition, we reviewed, systematized and compared information from other regions of Mexico and the world with comparable socio-ecological contexts in order to explore possible general patterns. Our study found from 26 % to nearly 90 % of wild plants species richness conserved in AFS, the decreasing proportion mainly associated to pressures for intensifying agricultural production and abandoning traditional techniques. Native species richness preserved in AFS is influenced by richness existing in the associated forests, but the main driver is how people preserve benefits of components and functions of ecosystems. Elements of modern agricultural production may coexist with traditional management patterns, but imposition of modern models may break possible balances. TEK influences decisions on what and how modern techniques may be advantageous for preserving biodiversity, ecosystem integrity in AFS and people's wellbeing. TEK, agroecology and other sciences may interact for maintaining and improving traditional AFS to increase biodiversity

  6. Tropical Glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fountain, Andrew

    The term "tropical glacier" calls to mind balmy nights and palm trees on one hand and cold, blue ice on the other. Certainly author Gabriel Garcia Marqez exploited this contrast in One Hundred Years of Solitude. We know that tropical fish live in warm, Sun-kissed waters and tropical plants provide lush, dense foliage populated by colorful tropical birds. So how do tropical glaciers fit into this scene? Like glaciers everywhere, tropical glaciers form where mass accumulation—usually winter snow—exceeds mass loss, which is generally summer melt. Thus, tropical glaciers exist at high elevations where precipitation can occur as snowfall exceeds melt and sublimation losses, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in east Africa and the Maoke Range of Irian Jaya.

  7. Characterization and Modelling of a Tropical Groundwater Basin:La Villa Watershed, Republic of Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castrellon Romero, M. G.; Foglia, L.; Fogg, G. E.; Pulido Silva, G.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater resources in the tropics are often poorly understood due to lack of systematic data gathering. In the case of Panama, abundance of water resources for many years created the myth that groundwater was "infinite" and no research had been done to characterize and quantify this resource until very recently. Therefore, basic information such as a complete database of all the wells in the country is missing and hydrogeological maps have been constructed only at a national scale, which is not enough to develop studies for regional groundwater analysis. The study area chosen, La Villa Watershed, is a predominantly agricultural and cattle farming watershed located in the Azuero Peninsula (South Central Panama). Average annual precipitation in this region corresponds to 1,400 mm/year, which is about half the national average of 2,924 mm/year. About 90% of the rain occurs during the wet season (May-December) and 10% occurs during the dry season (January-April). The geology is characterized by intercalation of volcanic rocks, volcaniclastic sediments and consolidated sedimentary rocks, thus, the aquifer characteristics likely depend on secondary permeability of the rocks. Understanding the groundwater dynamics in this complex system is crucial for securing water availability for future generations. The presented work illustrates the challenges of setting up effective monitoring and field-based data gathering campaigns and also explains our approach for characterizing and modelling a groundwater basin with fractured-rock hydrogeology and very little information. The model reveals a pattern of groundwater flow that closely follows the topography of the region and also gives insights of the volume of groundwater available for extraction.

  8. Linking benthic biodiversity and environmental conditions at the sea floor combining statistical and mechanistic modeling. Case study on the Black Sea's northwestern shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drion, Roxanne; Capet, Arthur; Gregoire, Marilaure

    2014-05-01

    The preservation of the health and biodiversity of benthic ecosystems is a crucial priority in order to achieve the Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine waters. The multiple pressures acting on the ocean, and in particular, on the coastal zone may prevent the maintenance of biodiversity either directly (e.g. trawling, dredging) or indirectly by modifying environmental conditions at the sea floor (e.g. eutrophication, pollution, acidification, warming). The management of the GES of the benthos in a changing environment and the definition of management strategies (e.g. nutrient reduction) that would preserve GES require tools able to predict the modifications of environmental conditions and to link these modifications to the status of the benthic system. Coupled biogeochemical-circulation models provide a large amount of information on physical (e.g. currents, salinity, temperature, shear stress) and biochemical conditions (e.g. oxygen, inorganic nutrients, sinking detritus) but cannot provide an information on species richness. We propose to link these aspects by applying canonical ordination techniques (e.g. Redundancy Analysis, CoInertia Analysis) on a large data set on macrobenthos collected on the Black Sea's north-western shelf with in-situ sediment data (e.g. granulometry, carbon and nitrogen content, C/N ratio, CaCO3 content) and bottom conditions (e.g. shear stress, level of oxygen stress, flux of organic matter to the sediments) provided by a three dimensional model. Beyond taxonomic description, the analysis is performed on the functional composition of the macrobenthos: A trait-based approach is used to assess the functional composition of the macrobenthos by associating the considered species to a list of biological, ecological and behavioral traits. This approach allows to appraise how local conditions determine the functional and taxonomical diversity and provides a mean to evaluate the impact of habitat alteration on the ecological role of

  9. Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

    2010-05-01

    The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides

  10. Helminth parasites of South American fishes: current status and characterization as a model for studies of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque, J L; Pereira, F B; Alves, P V; Oliva, M E; Timi, J T

    2017-03-01

    The South American subcontinent supports one of the world's most diverse and commercially very important ichthyofauna. In this context, the study of South American fish parasites is of increased relevance in understanding their key roles in ecosystems, regulating the abundance or density of host populations, stabilizing food webs and structuring host communities. It is hard to estimate the number of fish parasites in South America. The number of fish species studied for parasites is still low (less than 10%), although the total number of host-parasite associations (HPAs) found in the present study was 3971. Monogeneans, with 835 species (1123 HPAs, 28.5%), and trematodes, with 662 species (1127 HPAs, 30.9%), are the more diverse groups. Data gathered from the literature are useful to roughly estimate species richness of helminths from South American fish, even though there are some associated problems: the reliability of information depends on accurate species identification; the lack of knowledge about life cycles; the increasing number of discoveries of cryptic species and the geographically biased number of studies. Therefore, the closest true estimations of species diversity and distribution will rely on further studies combining both molecular and morphological approaches with ecological data such as host specificity, geographical distribution and life-cycle data. Research on biodiversity of fish parasites in South America is influenced by problems such as funding, taxonomic impediments and dispersion of research groups. Increasing collaboration, interchange and research networks in the context of globalization will enable a promising future for fish parasitology in South America.

  11. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tovar

    Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

  12. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  13. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Winkler

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy and mass balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season (May–September low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parameterisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models.

    During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on the tongue of Glaciar Artesonraju (8°58' S, 77°38' W in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú, using simple lysimeters. Indicating a strong dependence on surface roughness, daily totals of sublimation range from 1–3 kg m−2 for smooth to 2–5 kg m−2 for rough conditions. (The 15-day means at that time of wind speed and specific humidity were 4.3 m s−1 and 3.8 g kg−1, respectively.

    Measured sublimation was related to characteristic surface roughness lengths for momentum (zm and for the scalar quantities of temperature and water vapour (zs, using a process-based mass balance model. Input data were provided by automatic weather stations, situated on the glacier tongue at 4750 m a.s.l. and 4810 m a.s.l., respectively. Under smooth conditions the combination zm=2.0 mm and zs=1.0 mm appeared to be most appropriate, for rough conditions zm=20.0 mm and zs=10.0 mm fitted best.

    Extending the sublimation record from April 2004 to December 2005 with the process-based model confirms, that sublimation shows a clear seasonality. 60–90% of the energy available for ablation is consumed by sublimation in the dry season, but only 10–15% in the wet season (October–April. The findings are finally used to evaluate the parameterisation of sublimation in the lower-complexity mass

  14. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, M.; Juen, I.; Mölg, T.; Wagnon, P.; Gómez, J.; Kaser, G.

    2009-02-01

    Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy and mass balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season (May-September) low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parameterisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models. During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on the tongue of Glaciar Artesonraju (8°58' S, 77°38' W) in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú, using simple lysimeters. Indicating a strong dependence on surface roughness, daily totals of sublimation range from 1-3 kg m-2 for smooth to 2-5 kg m-2 for rough conditions. (The 15-day means at that time of wind speed and specific humidity were 4.3 m s-1 and 3.8 g kg-1, respectively.) Measured sublimation was related to characteristic surface roughness lengths for momentum (zm) and for the scalar quantities of temperature and water vapour (zs), using a process-based mass balance model. Input data were provided by automatic weather stations, situated on the glacier tongue at 4750 m a.s.l. and 4810 m a.s.l., respectively. Under smooth conditions the combination zm=2.0 mm and zs=1.0 mm appeared to be most appropriate, for rough conditions zm=20.0 mm and zs=10.0 mm fitted best. Extending the sublimation record from April 2004 to December 2005 with the process-based model confirms, that sublimation shows a clear seasonality. 60-90% of the energy available for ablation is consumed by sublimation in the dry season, but only 10-15% in the wet season (October-April). The findings are finally used to evaluate the parameterisation of sublimation in the lower-complexity mass balance model ITGG, which has the advantage of requiring precipitation and air temperature as only input data. It turns out that the implementation of mean wind speed is a possible improvement for the representation of

  15. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  16. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  17. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  18. Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi

    2015-04-01

    It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m

  19. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  20. Inferring genetic parameters of lactation in Tropical Milking Criollo cattle with random regression test-day models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santellano-Estrada, E; Becerril-Pérez, C M; de Alba, J; Chang, Y M; Gianola, D; Torres-Hernández, G; Ramírez-Valverde, R

    2008-11-01

    This study inferred genetic and permanent environmental variation of milk yield in Tropical Milking Criollo cattle and compared 5 random regression test-day models using Wilmink's function and Legendre polynomials. Data consisted of 15,377 test-day records from 467 Tropical Milking Criollo cows that calved between 1974 and 2006 in the tropical lowlands of the Gulf Coast of Mexico and in southern Nicaragua. Estimated heritabilities of test-day milk yields ranged from 0.18 to 0.45, and repeatabilities ranged from 0.35 to 0.68 for the period spanning from 6 to 400 d in milk. Genetic correlation between days in milk 10 and 400 was around 0.50 but greater than 0.90 for most pairs of test days. The model that used first-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic effects and second-order Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental effects gave the smallest residual variance and was also favored by the Akaike information criterion and likelihood ratio tests.

  1. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Model Simulations for Tropical and Continental Summertime Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Wu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The strength of the algorithm relies in part on the representativeness of the simulations; more realistic simulations provide a stronger link between the observables and simulated heating profiles. The current "TRMM" version of the CSH algorithm relies on 2D GCE simulations using an improved version of the Goddard 3-class ice scheme (3ICE), a moderate-sized domain, and 1-km horizontal resolution. Updating the LUTs, which are suitable for tropical and continental summertime environments requires new, more realistic GCE simulations. New simulations are performed using a new, improved 4-class ice scheme, which has been shown to outperform the 3ICE scheme, especially for intense convection. Additional grid configurations are also tested and evaluated to find the best overall setup to for re-deriving and updating the CSH tropical/summertime LUTs.

  2. Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Martin J P; Talbot, Joey; Lewis, Simon L; Phillips, Oliver L; Qie, Lan; Begne, Serge K; Chave, Jerôme; Cuni-Sanchez, Aida; Hubau, Wannes; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Miles, Lera; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Sonké, Bonaventure; Sunderland, Terry; Ter Steege, Hans; White, Lee J T; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; de Almeida, Everton Cristo; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Andrade, Ana; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C, Gerardo A; Baker, Timothy R; Balinga, Michael; Banin, Lindsay F; Baraloto, Christopher; Bastin, Jean-Francois; Berry, Nicholas; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Brienen, Roel; Camargo, José Luís C; Cerón, Carlos; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J; Pacheco, Álvaro Cogollo; Comiskey, James A; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Coronado, Eurídice N Honorio; Dargie, Greta; Davies, Stuart J; De Canniere, Charles; Djuikouo K, Marie Noel; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Erwin, Terry L; Espejo, Javier Silva; Ewango, Corneille E N; Fauset, Sophie; Feldpausch, Ted R; Herrera, Rafael; Gilpin, Martin; Gloor, Emanuel; Hall, Jefferson S; Harris, David J; Hart, Terese B; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kho, Lip Khoon; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Laurance, Susan G W; Laurance, William F; Leal, Miguel E; Lovejoy, Thomas; Lovett, Jon C; Lukasu, Faustin Mpanya; Makana, Jean-Remy; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maracahipes, Leandro; Marimon, Beatriz S; Junior, Ben Hur Marimon; Marshall, Andrew R; Morandi, Paulo S; Mukendi, John Tshibamba; Mukinzi, Jaques; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Camacho, Nadir C Pallqui; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pétronelli, Pascal; Pickavance, Georgia C; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Poulsen, John R; Primack, Richard B; Priyadi, Hari; Quesada, Carlos A; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Restrepo, Zorayda; Rutishauser, Ervan; Salim, Kamariah Abu; Salomão, Rafael P; Samsoedin, Ismayadi; Sheil, Douglas; Sierra, Rodrigo; Silveira, Marcos; Slik, J W Ferry; Steel, Lisa; Taedoumg, Hermann; Tan, Sylvester; Terborgh, John W; Thomas, Sean C; Toledo, Marisol; Umunay, Peter M; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Vos, Vincent A; Wang, Ophelia; Willcock, Simon; Zemagho, Lise

    2017-01-17

    Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.

  3. Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Martin J. P.; Talbot, Joey; Lewis, Simon L.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Qie, Lan; Begne, Serge K.; Chave, Jerôme; Cuni-Sanchez, Aida; Hubau, Wannes; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Miles, Lera; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Sonké, Bonaventure; Sunderland, Terry; Ter Steege, Hans; White, Lee J. T.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; de Almeida, Everton Cristo; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Andrade, Ana; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo A.; Baker, Timothy R.; Balinga, Michael; Banin, Lindsay F.; Baraloto, Christopher; Bastin, Jean-Francois; Berry, Nicholas; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Brienen, Roel; Camargo, José Luís C.; Cerón, Carlos; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J.; Pacheco, Álvaro Cogollo; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Coronado, Eurídice N. Honorio; Dargie, Greta; Davies, Stuart J.; de Canniere, Charles; Djuikouo K., Marie Noel; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Erwin, Terry L.; Espejo, Javier Silva; Ewango, Corneille E. N.; Fauset, Sophie; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Herrera, Rafael; Gilpin, Martin; Gloor, Emanuel; Hall, Jefferson S.; Harris, David J.; Hart, Terese B.; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kho, Lip Khoon; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Laurance, Susan G. W.; Laurance, William F.; Leal, Miguel E.; Lovejoy, Thomas; Lovett, Jon C.; Lukasu, Faustin Mpanya; Makana, Jean-Remy; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maracahipes, Leandro; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Junior, Ben Hur Marimon; Marshall, Andrew R.; Morandi, Paulo S.; Mukendi, John Tshibamba; Mukinzi, Jaques; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Camacho, Nadir C. Pallqui; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pétronelli, Pascal; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Poulsen, John R.; Primack, Richard B.; Priyadi, Hari; Quesada, Carlos A.; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Restrepo, Zorayda; Rutishauser, Ervan; Salim, Kamariah Abu; Salomão, Rafael P.; Samsoedin, Ismayadi; Sheil, Douglas; Sierra, Rodrigo; Silveira, Marcos; Slik, J. W. Ferry; Steel, Lisa; Taedoumg, Hermann; Tan, Sylvester; Terborgh, John W.; Thomas, Sean C.; Toledo, Marisol; Umunay, Peter M.; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Vos, Vincent A.; Wang, Ophelia; Willcock, Simon; Zemagho, Lise

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.

  4. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  5. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  6. Modeling Spatial Soil Water Dynamics in a Tropical Floodplain, East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geofrey Gabiri

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture is critical for ecohydrological processes and for sustainable water management studies in wetlands. The characterization of soil moisture dynamics and its influencing factors in agriculturally used wetlands pose a challenge in data-scarce regions such as East Africa. High resolution and good-quality time series soil moisture data are rarely available and gaps are frequent due to measurement constraints and device malfunctioning. Soil water models that integrate meteorological conditions and soil water storage may significantly overcome limitations due to data gaps at a point scale. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the Hydrus-1D model would adequately simulate soil water dynamics at different hydrological zones of a tropical floodplain in Tanzania, to determine controlling factors for wet and dry periods and to assess soil water availability. The zones of the Kilombero floodplain were segmented as riparian, middle, and fringe along a defined transect. The model was satisfactorily calibrated (coefficient of determination; R2 = 0.54–0.92, root mean square error; RMSE = 0.02–0.11 on a plot scale using measured soil moisture content at soil depths of 10, 20, 30, and 40 cm. Satisfying statistical measures (R2 = 0.36–0.89, RMSE = 0.03–0.13 were obtained when calibrations for one plot were validated with measured soil moisture for another plot within the same hydrological zone. Results show the transferability of the calibrated Hydrus-1D model to predict soil moisture for other plots with similar hydrological conditions. Soil water storage increased towards the riparian zone, at 262.8 mm/a while actual evapotranspiration was highest (1043.9 mm/a at the fringe. Overbank flow, precipitation, and groundwater control soil moisture dynamics at the riparian and middle zone, while at the fringe zone, rainfall and lateral flow from mountains control soil moisture during the

  7. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  8. Marine biodiversity in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, Juan Manuel

    2002-01-01

    One decade ago, the seas and oceans were considered biologically less diverse that the terrestrial environment. Now it is known that it is on the contrary; 33 of the 34 categories of animals (phylum), they are represented in the sea, compared with those solely 15 that exist in earth. The investigation about the diversity of life in the sea has been relatively scorned, but there are big benefits that we can wait if this is protected. The captures of fish depend on it; the species captured by the fisheries are sustained of the biodiversity of their trophic chains and habitats. The marine species are probably the biggest reservoir of chemical substances that can be used in pharmaceutical products. The genetic material of some species can be useful in biotechnical applications. The paper treats topics like the current state of the knowledge in marine biodiversity and it is done a diagnostic of the marine biodiversity in Colombia

  9. Ecohydrological modeling of a tropical tidal catchment exposed to anthropogenic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Malte; Zeunert, Stephanie; Meon, Günter

    2016-04-01

    situation, meaningful results for discharge, concentration and nutrient load calibration could be achieved. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the water quality processes of nitrogen are dominated by terrestrial transformation processes. The developed model is able to simulate the characteristic dynamics of mineralization, which are typically observed in the humid tropics. Beside the implemented "Availability and Demand Approach", which is accounting for a temporary storage of nutrients in the microbial biomass, the implemented moisture functions are of particular importance. The consideration of sediment compartments and processes related to periphyton activity were key components in the water quality modeling of the catchment. The calibrated model was utilized to identify pollution sources and hot spots in the estuary and in the catchment. Furthermore, tracer simulations showed that the upper part of the estuary is more vulnerable to pollution then the lower part. This confirms the findings of the monitoring. In addition, predictions for water quality in response to anthropogenic changes regarding population, land use and industrial development were carried out with the coupled modeling system. Results of these scenarios are presented.

  10. Effect of land management models on soil erosion in wet tropical cacao plantations in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Suhardi

    2017-01-01

    Indonesia is one of the world???s largest cocoa exporters and is located in a tropical wet region. In tropical regions, surface run off is a major factor behind the occurrence of erosion-driven land degradation. Both land slope and land cover influence the magnitude of surface run off and soil erosion. Cocoa plants are generally cultivated on land that has a steep slope without regard to existing land cover conditions resulting in a susceptibility to soil erosion. The purpose of this resea...

  11. Pollination decays in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vamosi, Jana C; Knight, Tiffany M; Steets, Janette A; Mazer, Susan J; Burd, Martin; Ashman, Tia-Lynn

    2006-01-24

    As pollinators decline globally, competition for their services is expected to intensify, and this antagonism may be most severe where the number of plant species is the greatest. Using meta-analysis and comparative phylogenetic analysis, we provide a global-scale test of whether reproduction becomes more limited by pollen receipt (pollen limitation) as the number of coexisting plant species increases. As predicted, we find a significant positive relationship between pollen limitation and species richness. In addition, this pattern is particularly strong for species that are obligately outcrossing and for trees relative to herbs or shrubs. We suggest that plants occurring in species-rich communities may be more prone to pollen limitation because of interspecific competition for pollinators. As a consequence, plants in biodiversity hotspots may have a higher risk of extinction and/or experience increased selection pressure to specialize on certain pollinators or diversify into different phenological niches. The combination of higher pollen limitation and habitat destruction represents a dual risk to tropical plant species that has not been previously identified.

  12. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  13. An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial

  14. The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

  15. Linking Tropical Forest Function to Hydraulic Traits in a Size-Structured and Trait-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoffersen, B. O.; Gloor, M.; Fauset, S.; Fyllas, N.; Galbraith, D.; Baker, T. R.; Rowland, L.; Fisher, R.; Binks, O.; Sevanto, S.; Xu, C.; Jansen, S.; Choat, B.; Mencuccini, M.; McDowell, N. G.; Meir, P.

    2015-12-01

    A major weakness of forest ecosystem models is their inability to capture the diversity of responses to changes in water availability, severely hampering efforts to predict the fate of tropical forests under climate change. Such models often prescribe moisture sensitivity using heuristic response functions that are uniform across all individuals and lack important knowledge about trade-offs in hydraulic traits. We address this weakness by implementing a process representation of plant hydraulics into an individual- and trait-based model (Trait Forest Simulator; TFS) intended for application at discrete sites where community-level distributions of stem and leaf trait spectra (wood density, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus content) are known. The model represents a trade-off in the safety and efficiency of water conduction in xylem tissue through hydraulic traits, while accounting for the counteracting effects of increasing hydraulic path length and xylem conduit taper on whole-plant hydraulic resistance with increasing tree size. Using existing trait databases and additional meta-analyses from the rich literature on tropical tree ecophysiology, we obtained all necessary hydraulic parameters associated with xylem conductivity, vulnerability curves, pressure-volume curves, and hydraulic architecture (e.g., leaf-to-sapwood area ratios) as a function of the aforementioned traits and tree size. Incorporating these relationships in the model greatly improved the diversity of tree response to seasonal changes in water availability as well as in response to drought, as determined by comparison with field observations and experiments. Importantly, this individual- and trait-based framework provides a testbed for identifying both critical processes and functional traits needed for inclusion in coarse-scale Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which will lead to reduced uncertainty in the future state of tropical forests.

  16. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana C Vamosi

    Full Text Available The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  17. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vamosi, Jana C; Vamosi, Steven M

    2008-01-01

    The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  18. Essential Biodiversity Variables: A framework for communication between the biodiversity community and space agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, A. K.; Skidmore, A. K.; Turner, W. W.; Geller, G. N.

    2017-12-01

    The biodiversity community is working towards developing a consensus on a set of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) that can be used to measure and monitor biodiversity change over time. These EBVs will inform research, modeling, policy, and assessment efforts. The synoptic coverage provided by satellite data make remote sensing a particularly important observation tool to inform many EBVs. Biodiversity is a relatively new subject matter for space agencies, and thus the definition, description, and requirements of EBVs with a significant remote sensing component can foster ways for the biodiversity community to clearly and concisely communicate observational needs to space agencies and the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS, the international coordinating body for civilian space agencies). Here, we present an overview of EBVs with a particular emphasis on those for which remote sensing will play a significant role and also report on the results of recent workshops to prioritize and refine EBVs. Our goal is to provide a framework for the biodiversity community to coalesce around a set of observational needs to convey to space agencies. Compared to many physical science disciplines, the biodiversity community represents a wide range of sub-disciplines and organizations (academia, non-governmental organizations, research institutes, national and local natural resource management agencies, etc.), which creates additional challenges when communicating needs to space agencies unfamiliar with the topic. EBVs thus offer a communication pathway that could increase awareness within space agencies of the uses of remote sensing for biodiversity research and applications, which in turn could foster greater use of remote sensing in the broader biodiversity community.

  19. Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F.N.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Wickel, A.J.

    1999-01-01

    Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location-the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico-66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy

  20. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  1. Sensitivity experiments with an adaptation model of circulation of western tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Shaji, C.; Rao, A.D.; Dube, S.K.

    circulation at 10 m depth is controlled by both wind stress and sea surface topography. Circulation at 50 m depth is mainly controlled by thermohaline forcing and sea surface topography. The current speed in the western tropical Indian Ocean is of the order...

  2. Observing and Modelling the HighWater Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaoli; Gharineiat, Zahra; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the capability of observing tropical cyclones using satellite radar altimetry. Two representative cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Larry (March 2006) in the northeast Australian coastal area are selected based also on available tide gauge sea level measurements. It is sho...

  3. Variability in tropical tropospheric ozone: analysis with GOME observations and a global model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valks, P.J.M.; Koelemeijer, R.B.A.; Weele, van M.; Velthoven, van P.F.J.; Fortuin, J.P.F.; Kelder, H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) have been determined with a convective-cloud-differential (CCD) method, using ozone column and cloud measurements from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. GOME cloud top pressures, derived with the Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds

  4. A simple spatial model exploring positive feedbacks at tropical alpine treelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bader, M.; Rietkerk, M.; Bregt, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change could cause alpine treelines to shift in altitude or to change their spatial pattern, but little is known about the drivers of treeline dynamics and patterning. The position and patterns of tropical alpine treelines are generally attributed to land use, especially burning. Species

  5. Simple greenhouse climate model as a design tool for greenhouses in tropical lowland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Impron, I.; Hemming-Hoffmann, S.; Bot, G.P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Six prototypes plastic greenhouses were built in the tropical lowlands of Indonesia. The geometrical dimensions were designed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) by taking local climate parameters as static reference boundary conditions. It is necessary to evaluate the climate dynamics inside

  6. Modelling the impact of rural migration on tropical deforestation in South-West Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Rompaey, Anton; Debonne, N.; Vanmaercke, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    A major driver of tropical deforestation is rural frontier migration. In this paper an attempt is made to formally describe the human-environment interactions that are manifested in a forested system experiencing a large influx of rural migrants. The Guraferda district in South-West Ethiopia was

  7. Economic prosperity, biodiversity conservation, and the environmental Kuznets curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, Julianne H.; Waite, Thomas A.

    2009-01-01

    Many conservationists contend that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are incompatible goals. Some economists contest this viewpoint, arguing that wealthier countries have the luxury of investing more heavily in efforts to conserve biodiversity. Under this assumption, we expect a U-shaped relationship between per capita wealth and proportion of species conserved. We test this environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using estimates of per capita income and deforestation rates (index of biodiversity threat) for 35 tropical countries. A prior analysis [Dietz, S., Adger, W.N., 2003. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort. Journal of Environmental Management, 68:23-35] using conventional regression techniques failed to provide any support for the parabolic relationship predicted by the EKC hypothesis. Here, we introduce the use of quantile regression and spatial filtering to reanalyze this data, addressing issues of heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. We note that preliminary analysis using these methods provides some initial evidence for an EKC. However, a series of panel analyses with country-specific dummy variables eliminated or even reversed much of this support. A closer examination of conservation practices and environmental indicators within the countries, particularly those countries that drove our initial support, suggests that wealth is not a reliable indicator of improved conservation practice. Our findings indicate that an EKC for biodiversity is overly simplistic and further exploration is required to fully understand the mechanisms by which income affects biodiversity. (author)

  8. Economic prosperity, biodiversity conservation, and the environmental Kuznets curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Julianne H.; Waite, Thomas A. [Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University, 300 Aronoff Laboratory, 318 W. 12th Ave., Columbus, OH, 43210 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    Many conservationists contend that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are incompatible goals. Some economists contest this viewpoint, arguing that wealthier countries have the luxury of investing more heavily in efforts to conserve biodiversity. Under this assumption, we expect a U-shaped relationship between per capita wealth and proportion of species conserved. We test this environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using estimates of per capita income and deforestation rates (index of biodiversity threat) for 35 tropical countries. A prior analysis [Dietz, S., Adger, W.N., 2003. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort. Journal of Environmental Management, 68:23-35] using conventional regression techniques failed to provide any support for the parabolic relationship predicted by the EKC hypothesis. Here, we introduce the use of quantile regression and spatial filtering to reanalyze this data, addressing issues of heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. We note that preliminary analysis using these methods provides some initial evidence for an EKC. However, a series of panel analyses with country-specific dummy variables eliminated or even reversed much of this support. A closer examination of conservation practices and environmental indicators within the countries, particularly those countries that drove our initial support, suggests that wealth is not a reliable indicator of improved conservation practice. Our findings indicate that an EKC for biodiversity is overly simplistic and further exploration is required to fully understand the mechanisms by which income affects biodiversity. (author)

  9. Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

    KAUST Repository

    Dodla, Venkata B.

    2016-05-03

    Tropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.

  10. Tree Species Abundance Predictions in a Tropical Agricultural Landscape with a Supervised Classification Model and Imbalanced Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah J. Graves

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Mapping species through classification of imaging spectroscopy data is facilitating research to understand tree species distributions at increasingly greater spatial scales. Classification requires a dataset of field observations matched to the image, which will often reflect natural species distributions, resulting in an imbalanced dataset with many samples for common species and few samples for less common species. Despite the high prevalence of imbalanced datasets in multiclass species predictions, the effect on species prediction accuracy and landscape species abundance has not yet been quantified. First, we trained and assessed the accuracy of a support vector machine (SVM model with a highly imbalanced dataset of 20 tropical species and one mixed-species class of 24 species identified in a hyperspectral image mosaic (350–2500 nm of Panamanian farmland and secondary forest fragments. The model, with an overall accuracy of 62% ± 2.3% and F-score of 59% ± 2.7%, was applied to the full image mosaic (23,000 ha at a 2-m resolution to produce a species prediction map, which suggested that this tropical agricultural landscape is more diverse than what has been presented in field-based studies. Second, we quantified the effect of class imbalance on model accuracy. Model assessment showed a trend where species with more samples were consistently over predicted while species with fewer samples were under predicted. Standardizing sample size reduced model accuracy, but also reduced the level of species over- and under-prediction. This study advances operational species mapping of diverse tropical landscapes by detailing the effect of imbalanced data on classification accuracy and providing estimates of tree species abundance in an agricultural landscape. Species maps using data and methods presented here can be used in landscape analyses of species distributions to understand human or environmental effects, in addition to focusing conservation

  11. Tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport of carbon monoxide and long-lived trace species in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pommrich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11, CCl2F2 (CFC-12, and CO2 in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv. Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling

  12. Persistence of lindane in model cattle dips in sub-tropical climate of Delhi, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, D.K.; Menon, P.; Agarwal, H.C.

    1997-01-01

    Persistence of lindane in model cattle dips under field conditions in the sub-tropical climate of Delhi was studied. In one set of experiments two model dips were utilized and filled with 200 L of water and treated with 2.37 MBq of 14 C-labelled and 4 g unlabelled lindane each. The radioactivity in water samples at zero time was estimated and considered to be 100 % (744 dpm/mL) which declined to 17.5 % (132 dpm/mL) 180 d after the treatment in Dip 1 (control dip). In the second dip 50 g of cowdung and soil were added 28 d after treatment and subsequently every time before sampling. The results in both the dips were similar indicating no effect of soil and cowdung on the persistence of lindane in the dips. The half life of lindane in water was 101 days. Lindane was extracted from water by hexane in the presence of methanol. The efficiency of this procedure was 99+ %. The main metabolises of lindane in water, identified by HPLC, were 1, 2, 4- trichlorobenzene, 1,3,5-trichlorobenzene and an unknown compound. In another experiment, 50 L of water was added to one dip which was treated with 2.90 MBq of 14 C-labelled and 1 g unlabelled lindane in 25 ml acetone. The cattle dip was recharged at monthly intervals with about 10 % of the initially applied lindane (290 kBq of 14 C labelled and 100 mg unlabelled lindane in 25 mL acetone). Soil and cow dung were added as in the first experiment. The concentration of lindane declined rapidly to 11.69 % (1.9 μg/mL, 425 dpm/mL) after the third recharge. The main metabolite was 1,2,4- trichlorobenzene which accounted for about 21 % after first and second recharge. The effect of pH ranging from 5 to 9 was also investigated. The dissipation appeared to be faster at pH 8 and comparatively slower at pH 6. (author)

  13. Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecoregions Terrestrial Biomes Protected Areas Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | 75 7.2. Non-climatic drivers of ecosystem change 7.2.1. Land-use change, habitat loss and fragmentation Land-use change and landscape... concentrations of endemic plant and animal species, but these mainly occur in areas that are most threatened by human activity. Diverse terrestrial ecosystems in the region include tropical and sub-tropical forests, deserts, savannas, grasslands, mangroves...

  14. Warfare in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Thor; Brooks, Thomas M; Da Fonseca, Gustavo A B; Hoffmann, Michael; Lamoreux, John F; Machlis, Gary; Mittermeier, Cristina G; Mittermeier, Russell A; Pilgrim, John D

    2009-06-01

    Conservation efforts are only as sustainable as the social and political context within which they take place. The weakening or collapse of sociopolitical frameworks during wartime can lead to habitat destruction and the erosion of conservation policies, but in some cases, may also confer ecological benefits through altered settlement patterns and reduced resource exploitation. Over 90% of the major armed conflicts between 1950 and 2000 occurred within countries containing biodiversity hotspots, and more than 80% took place directly within hotspot areas. Less than one-third of the 34 recognized hotspots escaped significant conflict during this period, and most suffered repeated episodes of violence. This pattern was remarkably consistent over these 5 decades. Evidence from the war-torn Eastern Afromontane hotspot suggests that biodiversity conservation is improved when international nongovernmental organizations support local protected area staff and remain engaged throughout the conflict. With biodiversity hotspots concentrated in politically volatile regions, the conservation community must maintain continuous involvement during periods of war, and biodiversity conservation should be incorporated into military, reconstruction, and humanitarian programs in the world's conflict zones. ©2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Biodiversity and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.R. Willig

    2011-01-01

    Researchers predict that human activities especially landscape modification and climate change will have a considerable impact on the distribution and abundance of species at local, regional, and global scales in the 21st century ( 1, 2). This is a concern for a number of reasons, including the potential loss of goods and services that biodiversity provides to people...

  16. When Leeches reveal Biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnell, Ida Bærholm

    to provide information about vertebrate biodiversity. This thesis covers the development of a monitoring method based on iDNA extracted from terrestrial haematophagous leeches, a continuation of the work presented in Schnell et al., 2012. The chapters investigate and/or discuss different subjects regarding...

  17. Compilation of a global N{sub 2}O emission inventory for tropical rainforest soils using a detailed biogeochemical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, C.

    2007-09-15

    Nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) is a potent trace gas contributing to approximately 6% to the observed anthropogenic global warming. Soils have been identified to be the major source of atmospheric N{sub 2}O and tropical rainforest soils are thought to account for the largest part. Furthermore, various studies have shown that the magnitude of N{sub 2}O emissions from tropical rainforest soil is highly variable on spatial and temporal scales. Detailed, process-based models coupled to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are considered promising tools for the calculation of N{sub 2}O emission inventories. This methodology explicitly accounts for the governing microbial processes as well as the environmental controls. Moreover, mechanistic biogeochemical models operating in daily time-steps (e.g. ForestDNDC-tropica) have been shown to capture the observed intra- and inter-annual variations of N{sub 2}O emissions. However, detailed N{sub 2}O emission datasets are required for model calibration and testing, but are currently few in numbers. In this study an automated measurement system was used to derive detailed datasets of N{sub 2}O, methane (CH{sub 4}) and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) soil-atmosphere exchange and important environmental parameters from tropical rainforest soils in Kenya and Southwest China. Distinct differences were identified in the magnitude of the C and N soil-atmosphere exchange at the investigated sites and forest types. However, common features such as N{sub 2}O pulse emissions after dry season or the pronounced soil moisture dependency of N{sub 2}O emissions were observed at both sites. The derived datasets are unique for these tropical regions as so far no information about the source strength of these regions was available and, for the first time, the N{sub 2}O, CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere exchange was recorded in sub-daily resolution. The datasets were utilized in conjunction with available high-resolution datasets from Australian

  18. Role of the Convective Scheme in Modeling Initiation and Intensification of Tropical Depressions over the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvel, Jean Philippe; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam

    2016-04-01

    Modifications of the large-scale environment related to intraseasonal (MJO) and interannual (ENSO) time-scale variability or to global climate warming may have important impacts on the tropical cyclonic activity. This sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TC) on environmental changes can now be studied using General Circulation Models (GCM). Before doing sensitivity studies with a GCM, it is interesting to assess the representation of the TC activity for different configurations (resolution, parameterization) of the GCM in present climate conditions and to trace possible causes of bias in TC number, location or strength. A possible approach to do this assessment is to separate initiation and intensification processes. By using either GCM output, or meteorological analysis combined to TC observation databases, it is possible to study the condition of formation of tropical depressions vortices (TDV) at an early stage and their possible intensification into a TC (say the Tropical Storm stage). We use the LMDZ GCM to study the sensitivity of TDV characteristics to different entrainment and closure formulations of the convective scheme. The study focuses on the Tropical North Atlantic using the "zoom" capability of the LMDZ GCM. The horizontal resolution of the model is set to 0.75° over a large region of the North Atlantic and West Africa. The GCM is free to run in this region and is tied to ERA-Interim reanalysis outside that region, with intermediate relaxation times in-between. We use the Tiedtke convective scheme with entrainment and closure based on the moisture convergence, or with an entrainment based on the relative humidity of the environment, and additionally a closure based on CAPE. Each configuration is run for 10 years between 2000 and 2009 with prescribed SST. In summary, the convective entrainment based on the relative humidity in the environment deepens the TDV in LMDZ, resulting in more TDV and TC. The convective closure mitigates this tendency and

  19. Resolving model parameter values from carbon and nitrogen stock measurements in a wide range of tropical mature forests using nonlinear inversion and regression trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuguang Liua; Pamela Anderson; Guoyi Zhoud; Boone Kauffman; Flint Hughes; David Schimel; Vicente Watson; Joseph. Tosi

    2008-01-01

    Objectively assessing the performance of a model and deriving model parameter values from observations are critical and challenging in landscape to regional modeling. In this paper, we applied a nonlinear inversion technique to calibrate the ecosystem model CENTURY against carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stock measurements collected from 39 mature tropical forest sites in...

  20. Caribbean landscapes and their biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. E. Lugo; E. H. Helmer; E. Santiago Valentín

    2012-01-01

    Both the biodiversity and the landscapes of the Caribbean have been greatly modified as a consequence of human activity. In this essay we provide an overview of the natural landscapes and biodiversity of the Caribbean and discuss how human activity has affected both. Our Caribbean geographic focus is on the insular Caribbean and the biodiversity focus is on the flora,...

  1. A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, E.C. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Ralph; Weinelt, M. [Christian-Albrechts Universitaet, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Kucera, M. [Eberhard-Karls Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Tuebingen (Germany); Abe-Ouchi, A. [The University of Tokyo, Center for Climate System Research, Kashiwa (Japan); Bard, E. [CEREGE, College de France, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Aix-en-Provence (France); Braconnot, P.; Kageyama, M.; Marti, O.; Waelbroeck, C. [Unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crucifix, M. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Paul, A. [Bremen University, Department of Geosciences, Bremen (Germany); Rosell-Mele, A. [Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, ICREA and Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals, Barcelona (Spain); Weber, S.L. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands); Yu, Y. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2009-05-15

    Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM. The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15 S-15 N) SST cooling of 1.0-2.4 C, comparable to the MARGO estimate of annual cooling of 1.7{+-}1 C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific, but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations. Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67 -0.83 C per Wm{sup -2}, which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} of 2.6-3.1 C. (orig.)

  2. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  3. Status of marine biodiversity of the China seas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Y Liu

    Full Text Available China's seas cover nearly 5 million square kilometers extending from the tropical to the temperate climate zones and bordering on 32,000 km of coastline, including islands. Comprehensive systematic study of the marine biodiversity within this region began in the early 1950s with the establishment of the Qingdao Marine Biological Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Since that time scientists have carried out intensive multidisciplinary research on marine life in the China seas and have recorded 22,629 species belonging to 46 phyla. The marine flora and fauna of the China seas are characterized by high biodiversity, including tropical and subtropical elements of the Indo-West Pacific warm-water fauna in the South and East China seas, and temperate elements of North Pacific temperate fauna mainly in the Yellow Sea. The southern South China Sea fauna is characterized by typical tropical elements paralleled with the Philippine-New Guinea-Indonesia Coral triangle typical tropical faunal center. This paper summarizes advances in studies of marine biodiversity in China's seas and discusses current research mainly on characteristics and changes in marine biodiversity, including the monitoring, assessment, and conservation of endangered species and particularly the strengthening of effective management. Studies of (1 a tidal flat in a semi-enclosed embayment, (2 the impact of global climate change on a cold-water ecosystem, (3 coral reefs of Hainan Island and Xisha-Nansha atolls, (4 mangrove forests of the South China Sea, (5 a threatened seagrass field, and (6 an example of stock enhancement practices of the Chinese shrimp fishery are briefly introduced. Besides the overexploitation of living resources (more than 12.4 million tons yielded in 2007, the major threat to the biodiversity of the China seas is environmental deterioration (pollution, coastal construction, particularly in the brackish waters of estuarine environments, which are

  4. [Advances in the research on hyperspectral remote sensing in biodiversity and conservation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Cheng; Feng, Zhong-Ke; Yuan, Jin-Jun; Wang, Jia; Gong, Yin-Xi; Dong, Zhi-Hai

    2012-06-01

    With the species reduction and the habitat destruction becoming serious increasingly, the biodiversity conservation has become one of the hottest topics. Remote sensing, the science of non-contact collection information, has the function of corresponding estimates of biodiversity, building model between species diversity relationship and mapping the index of biodiversity, which has been used widely in the field of biodiversity conservation. The present paper discussed the application of hyperspectral technology to the biodiversity conservation from two aspects, remote sensors and remote sensing techniques, and after, enumerated successful applications for emphasis. All these had a certain reference value in the development of biodiversity conservation.

  5. Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions.

  6. Tropical forest response to a drier future: Measurement and modeling of soil organic matter stocks and turnover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finstad, K. M.; Campbell, A.; Pett-Ridge, J.; Zhang, N.; McFarlane, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink and 29% of global soil carbon, but the stability of carbon in these ecosystems under a changing climate is unknown. Recent work suggests moisture may be more important than temperature in driving soil carbon storage and emissions in the tropics. However, data on belowground carbon cycling in the tropics is sparse, and the role of moisture on soil carbon dynamics is underrepresented in current land surface models limiting our ability to extrapolate from field experiments to the entire region. We measured radiocarbon (14C) and calculated turnover rates of organic matter from 37 soil profiles from the Neotropics including sites in Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, and Peru. Our sites represent a large range of moisture, spanning 710 to 4200 mm of mean annual precipitation, and include Andisols, Oxisols, Inceptisols, and Ultisols. We found a large range in soil 14C profiles between sites, and in some locations, we also found a large spatial variation within a site. We compared measured soil C stocks and 14C profiles to data generated from the Community Land Model (CLM) v.4.5 and have begun to generate data from the ACME Land Model (ALM) v.1. We found that the CLM consistently overestimated carbon stocks and the mean age of soil carbon at the surface (upper 50 cm), and underestimated the mean age of deep soil carbon. Additionally, the CLM did not capture the variation in 14C and C stock profiles that exists between and within the sites across the Neotropics. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-736060.

  7. Modelling the Carbon Stocks Estimation of the Tropical Lowland Dipterocarp Forest Using LIDAR and Remotely Sensed Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaki, N. A. M.; Latif, Z. A.; Suratman, M. N.; Zainal, M. Z.

    2016-06-01

    Tropical forest embraces a large stock of carbon in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the enormous amount of above and below ground biomass. The carbon kept in the aboveground living biomass of trees is typically the largest pool and the most directly impacted by the anthropogenic factor such as deforestation and forest degradation. However, fewer studies had been proposed to model the carbon for tropical rain forest and the quantification still remain uncertainties. A multiple linear regression (MLR) is one of the methods to define the relationship between the field inventory measurements and the statistical extracted from the remotely sensed data which is LiDAR and WorldView-3 imagery (WV-3). This paper highlight the model development from fusion of multispectral WV-3 with the LIDAR metrics to model the carbon estimation of the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of the study area. The result shown the over segmentation and under segmentation value for this output is 0.19 and 0.11 respectively, thus D-value for the classification is 0.19 which is 81%. Overall, this study produce a significant correlation coefficient (r) between Crown projection area (CPA) and Carbon stocks (CS); height from LiDAR (H_LDR) and Carbon stocks (CS); and Crown projection area (CPA) and height from LiDAR (H_LDR) were shown 0.671, 0.709 and 0.549 respectively. The CPA of the segmentation found to be representative spatially with higher correlation of relationship between diameter at the breast height (DBH) and carbon stocks which is Pearson Correlation p = 0.000 (p using multiple linear regression method. The study concluded that the integration of WV-3 imagery with the CHM raster based LiDAR were useful in order to quantify the AGB and carbon stocks for a larger sample area of the Lowland Dipterocarp forest.

  8. MODELLING THE CARBON STOCKS ESTIMATION OF THE TROPICAL LOWLAND DIPTEROCARP FOREST USING LIDAR AND REMOTELY SENSED DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. M. Zaki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forest embraces a large stock of carbon in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the enormous amount of above and below ground biomass. The carbon kept in the aboveground living biomass of trees is typically the largest pool and the most directly impacted by the anthropogenic factor such as deforestation and forest degradation. However, fewer studies had been proposed to model the carbon for tropical rain forest and the quantification still remain uncertainties. A multiple linear regression (MLR is one of the methods to define the relationship between the field inventory measurements and the statistical extracted from the remotely sensed data which is LiDAR and WorldView-3 imagery (WV-3. This paper highlight the model development from fusion of multispectral WV-3 with the LIDAR metrics to model the carbon estimation of the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of the study area. The result shown the over segmentation and under segmentation value for this output is 0.19 and 0.11 respectively, thus D-value for the classification is 0.19 which is 81%. Overall, this study produce a significant correlation coefficient (r between Crown projection area (CPA and Carbon stocks (CS; height from LiDAR (H_LDR and Carbon stocks (CS; and Crown projection area (CPA and height from LiDAR (H_LDR were shown 0.671, 0.709 and 0.549 respectively. The CPA of the segmentation found to be representative spatially with higher correlation of relationship between diameter at the breast height (DBH and carbon stocks which is Pearson Correlation p = 0.000 (p Dipterocarp forest.

  9. A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

    2014-11-01

    A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

  10. Cyberdiversity: improving the informatic value of diverse tropical arthropod inventories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy A Miller

    Full Text Available In an era of biodiversity crisis, arthropods have great potential to inform conservation assessment and test hypotheses about community assembly. This is because their relatively narrow geographic distributions and high diversity offer high-resolution data on landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. However, a major impediment to the more widespread application of arthropod data to a range of scientific and policy questions is the poor state of modern arthropod taxonomy, especially in the tropics. Inventories of spiders and other megadiverse arthropods from tropical forests are dominated by undescribed species. Such studies typically organize their data using morphospecies codes, which make it difficult for data from independent inventories to be compared and combined. To combat this shortcoming, we offer cyberdiversity, an online community-based approach for reconciling results of independent inventory studies where current taxonomic knowledge is incomplete. Participating scientists can upload images and DNA barcode sequences to dedicated databases and submit occurrence data and links to a web site (www.digitalSpiders.org. Taxonomic determinations can be shared with a crowdsourcing comments feature, and researchers can discover specimens of interest available for loan and request aliquots of genomic DNA extract. To demonstrate the value of the cyberdiversity framework, we reconcile data from three rapid structured inventories of spiders conducted in Vietnam with an independent inventory (Doi Inthanon, Thailand using online image libraries. Species richness and inventory completeness were assessed using non-parametric estimators. Community similarity was evaluated using a novel index based on the Jaccard replacing observed with estimated values to correct for unobserved species. We use a distance-decay framework to demonstrate a rudimentary model of landscape-scale changes in community composition that will become increasingly informative as

  11. Investigating copper toxicity in the tropical fish cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi) in natural Amazonian waters: Measurements, modeling, and reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crémazy, Anne; Wood, Chris M.; Smith, D. Scott; Ferreira, Márcio S.; Johannsson, Ora E.; Giacomin, Marina; Val, Adalberto L.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Copper toxicity to a tropical fish varied greatly in different Amazonian waters. • The biotic ligand model could not capture this variability. • Possible physiological protection was offered by natural organic matter. • Care must be used in applying BLM to fish in tropical waters. - Abstract: Copper at high concentrations is an ionoregulatory toxicant in fish and its toxicity is known to be strongly modulated by the water chemistry. The toxicity of Cu to the tropical fish cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi) was investigated in waters from two major rivers of the Amazon watershed: the Rio Negro (filtered <0.45 μm, pH 5.6, DOC = 8.4 mg L"−"1, Na = 33 μM, Ca = 8 μM) and the Rio Solimões (filtered <0.45 μm, pH 6.7, DOC = 2.8 mg L"−"1, Na = 185 μM, Ca = 340 μM), as well as in a natural “reference water” (groundwater) which was almost DOC-free (pH 6.0, DOC = 0.34 mg L"−"1, Na = 53 μM, Ca = 5 μM). Acute 96-h mortality, Cu bioaccumulation and net flux rates of Na"+, Cl"−, K"+ and total ammonia were determined in P. axelrodi exposed in each water. Copper speciation in each water was determined by two thermodynamic models and by potentiometry, and its toxicity was predicted based on the biotic ligand model (BLM) framework. Our results indicate that high Na"+ loss is the main mode of toxic action of Cu in P. axelrodi, in accordance with general theory. Cardinal tetra showed a particularly high ability to tolerate Cu and to maintain Na"+ balance, similar to the ability of this and other endemic Rio Negro species to tolerate low pH and ion-poor conditions. Cu toxicity was lower in Rio Negro than in the other two waters tested, and the free [Cu"2"+] at the LC50, as determined by any of the three speciation methods tested, was approximately 10-fold higher. This variation could not be captured by a realistic set of BLM parameters. At least in part, this observation may be due to gill physiological alterations induced by the abundant

  12. Investigating copper toxicity in the tropical fish cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi) in natural Amazonian waters: Measurements, modeling, and reality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crémazy, Anne, E-mail: acremazy@zoology.ubc.ca [Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Wood, Chris M. [Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Smith, D. Scott [Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5 (Canada); Ferreira, Márcio S. [Laboratory of Ecophysiology and Molecular Evolution, National Institute for Amazonian Research, Manaus, AM (Brazil); Johannsson, Ora E.; Giacomin, Marina [Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Val, Adalberto L. [Laboratory of Ecophysiology and Molecular Evolution, National Institute for Amazonian Research, Manaus, AM (Brazil)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • Copper toxicity to a tropical fish varied greatly in different Amazonian waters. • The biotic ligand model could not capture this variability. • Possible physiological protection was offered by natural organic matter. • Care must be used in applying BLM to fish in tropical waters. - Abstract: Copper at high concentrations is an ionoregulatory toxicant in fish and its toxicity is known to be strongly modulated by the water chemistry. The toxicity of Cu to the tropical fish cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi) was investigated in waters from two major rivers of the Amazon watershed: the Rio Negro (filtered <0.45 μm, pH 5.6, DOC = 8.4 mg L{sup −1}, Na = 33 μM, Ca = 8 μM) and the Rio Solimões (filtered <0.45 μm, pH 6.7, DOC = 2.8 mg L{sup −1}, Na = 185 μM, Ca = 340 μM), as well as in a natural “reference water” (groundwater) which was almost DOC-free (pH 6.0, DOC = 0.34 mg L{sup −1}, Na = 53 μM, Ca = 5 μM). Acute 96-h mortality, Cu bioaccumulation and net flux rates of Na{sup +}, Cl{sup −}, K{sup +} and total ammonia were determined in P. axelrodi exposed in each water. Copper speciation in each water was determined by two thermodynamic models and by potentiometry, and its toxicity was predicted based on the biotic ligand model (BLM) framework. Our results indicate that high Na{sup +} loss is the main mode of toxic action of Cu in P. axelrodi, in accordance with general theory. Cardinal tetra showed a particularly high ability to tolerate Cu and to maintain Na{sup +} balance, similar to the ability of this and other endemic Rio Negro species to tolerate low pH and ion-poor conditions. Cu toxicity was lower in Rio Negro than in the other two waters tested, and the free [Cu{sup 2+}] at the LC50, as determined by any of the three speciation methods tested, was approximately 10-fold higher. This variation could not be captured by a realistic set of BLM parameters. At least in part, this observation may be due to gill

  13. Mapping and Quantifying Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity at ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast functions of ecosystems is critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our environment. Because of the variability among living organisms and levels of organization (e.g. genetic, species, ecosystem), biodiversity has always been difficult to measure precisely, especially within a systematic manner and over multiple scales. In answer to this challenge, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has created a partnership with other Federal agencies, academic institutions, and Non-Governmental Organizations to develop the EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas), an online national Decision Support Tool that allows users to view and analyze the geographical description of the supply and demand for ecosystem services, as well as the drivers of change. As part of the EnviroAtlas, an approach has been developed that uses deductive habitat models for all terrestrial vertebrates of the conterminous United States and clusters them into biodiversity metrics that relate to ecosystem service-relevant categories. Metrics, such as species and taxon richness, have been developed and integrated with other measures of biodiversity. Collectively, these metrics provide a consistent scalable process from which to make geographic comparisons, provide thematic assessments, and to monitor status and trends in biodiversity. The national biodiversity component operates across approximatel

  14. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    OpenAIRE

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. ...

  15. Nonrandom community assembly and high temporal turnover promote regional coexistence in tropics but not temperate zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freestone, Amy L; Inouye, Brian D

    2015-01-01

    A persistent challenge for ecologists is understanding the ecological mechanisms that maintain global patterns of biodiversity, particularly the latitudinal diversity gradient of peak species richness in the tropics. Spatial and temporal variation in community composition contribute to these patterns of biodiversity, but how this variation and its underlying processes change across latitude remains unresolved. Using a model system of sessile marine invertebrates across 25 degrees of latitude, from the temperate zone to the tropics, we tested the prediction that spatial and temporal patterns of taxonomic richness and composition, and the community assembly processes underlying these patterns, will differ across latitude. Specifically, we predicted that high beta diversity (spatial variation in composition) and high temporal turnover contribute to the high species richness of the tropics. Using a standardized experimental approach that controls for several confounding factors that hinder interpretation of prior studies, we present results that support our predictions. In the temperate zone, communities were more similar across spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers and temporal scales up to one year than at lower latitudes. Since the patterns at northern latitudes were congruent with a null model, stochastic assembly processes are implicated. In contrast, the communities in the tropics were a dynamic spatial and temporal mosaic, with low similarity even across small spatial scales and high temporal turnover at both local and regional scales. Unlike the temperate zone, deterministic community assembly processes such as predation likely contributed to the high beta diversity in the tropics. Our results suggest that community assembly processes and temporal dynamics vary across latitude and help structure and maintain latitudinal patterns of diversity.

  16. Effects of land-use changes on evapotranspiration of tropical rain forest margin area in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia): Modelling study with a regional SVAT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Priess, J.

    2008-01-01

    The impact of deforestation and land-use changes on evapotranspiration of mountainous tropical rain forest area in the northern part of the Lore-Lindu National Park (LLNP) in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia) was quantified using a regional process-based SVAT model "SVAT-Regio". Description...... of the areas covered by tropical rain forests, i.e. about 15%, and an increase of agricultural (coffee plantations, corn and rice fields) and urban areas. Moreover, the scenario assumes a small increase of grassland areas as well. The results of modelling experiments show that 15% deforestation of the study......, and lowest in sunny and dry days. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  17. The energy balance of tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Cordillera Blanca, Perú - AWS-measurements and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galos, S.; Mölg, T.; MacDonell, S.; Großhauser, M.; Marzeion, B.

    2012-04-01

    Like in most regions of the world, tropical glaciers in the Peruvian Andes have experienced considerable mass loss during the last decades. In order to better understand and correctly interpret the ongoing glacier changes in this region, we need to examine the driving processes behind these changes. Therefore we installed several automatic weather stations (AWS) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range. Two of these stations are situated in the ablation area of Glaciar Shallap and Glaciar Artesonraju, while four other stations were established in the vicinity of the two glaciers. The resulting eight year record of meteorological data is analyzed and finally used as input for a physically based numerical energy and mass balance model, which in a first step was applied to the ablation zone of Glaciar Artesonraju (8.96° S / 77.63° W). In July 2010, eddy covariance measurements were carried out on the glacier surface. The resulting data was used to calibrate the parametrization scheme for the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. Finally the model output was validated against ablation data from a sonic ranger and from single stake ablation measurements. The model results were interpreted with special respect to the seasonal fluctuation in atmospheric moisture (tropical wet / dry season).

  18. Complementary Use of Glider Data, Altimetry, and Model for Exploring Mesoscale Eddies in the Tropical Pacific Solomon Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdeau, L.; Verron, J.; Chaigneau, A.; Cravatte, S.; Kessler, W.

    2017-11-01

    Mesoscale activity is an important component of the Solomon Sea circulation that interacts with the energetic low-latitude western boundary currents of the South Tropical Pacific Ocean carrying waters of subtropical origin before joining the equatorial Pacific. Mixing associated with mesoscale activity could explain water mass transformation observed in the Solomon Sea that likely impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics. This study makes synergetic use of glider data, altimetry, and high-resolution model for exploring mesoscale eddies, especially their vertical structures, and their role on the Solomon Sea circulation. The description of individual eddies observed by altimetry and gliders provides the first elements to characterize the 3-D structure of these tropical eddies, and confirms the usefulness of the model to access a more universal view of such eddies. Mesoscale eddies appear to have a vertical extension limited to the Surface Waters (SW) and the Upper Thermocline Water (UTW), i.e., the first 140-150 m depth. Most of the eddies are nonlinear, meaning that eddies can trap and transport water properties. But they weakly interact with the deep New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent that is a key piece of the equatorial circulation. Anticyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to advect salty and warm SW coming from the intrusion of equatorial Pacific waters at Solomon Strait, and to impact the characteristics of the New Guinea Coastal Current. Cyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to transport South Pacific Tropical Water (SPTW) anomalies from the North Vanuatu Jet and to erode by diapycnal mixing the high SPTW salinity.

  19. Bioquality Hotspots in the Tropical African Flora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Cicely A M; Wieringa, Jan J; Hawthorne, William D

    2016-12-05

    Identifying areas of high biodiversity is an established way to prioritize areas for conservation [1-3], but global approaches have been criticized for failing to render global biodiversity value at a scale suitable for local management [4-6]. We assembled 3.1 million species distribution records for 40,401 vascular plant species of tropical Africa from sources including plot data, herbarium databases, checklists, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and cleaned the records for geographic accuracy and taxonomic consistency. We summarized the global ranges of tropical African plant species into four weighted categories of global rarity called Stars. We applied the Star weights to summaries of species distribution data at fine resolutions to map the bioquality (range-restricted global endemism) of areas [7]. We generated confidence intervals around bioquality scores to account for the remaining uncertainty in the species inventory. We confirm the broad significance of the Horn of Africa, Guinean forests, coastal forests of East Africa, and Afromontane regions for plant biodiversity but also reveal the variation in bioquality within these broad regions and others, particularly at local scales. Our framework offers practitioners a quantitative, scalable, and replicable approach for measuring the irreplaceability of particular local areas for global biodiversity conservation and comparing those areas within their global and regional context. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Simon L

    2006-01-29

    Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

  1. Earthworms in tropical tree plantations: effects of management and relations with soil carbon and nutrient use efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    X Zou; Grizelle Gonzalez

    2001-01-01

    With the vast amount of abandoned tropical land due to non- sustainable farming practices, tropical tree-plantations become an effective means in restoring soil productivity and preserving ecosystem biodiversity. Because earthworms are the dominant soil fauna in moist tropical regions and play an important role in improving soil fertility, understanding the mechanisms...

  2. European mountain biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagy, Jennifer

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper, originally prepared as a discussion document for the ESF Exploratory Workshop «Trends in European Mountain Biodiversity - Research Planning Workshop», provides an overview of current mountain biodiversity research in Europe. It discusses (a biogeographical trends, (b the general properties of biodiversity, (c environmental factors and the regulation of biodiversity with respect to ecosystem function, (d the results of research on mountain freshwater ecosystems, and (e climate change and air pollution dominated environmental interactions.- The section on biogeographical trends highlights the importance of altitude and latitude on biodiversity. The implications of the existence of different scales over the different levels of biodiversity and across organism groups are emphasised as an inherent complex property of biodiversity. The discussion on ecosystem function and the regulation of biodiversity covers the role of environmental factors, productivity, perturbation, species migration and dispersal, and species interactions in the maintenance of biodiversity. Regional and long-term temporal patterns are also discussed. A section on the relatively overlooked topic of mountain freshwater ecosystems is presented before the final topic on the implications of recent climate change and air pollution for mountain biodiversity.

    [fr] Ce document a été préparé à l'origine comme une base de discussion pour «ESF Exploratory Workshop» intitulé «Trends in European Mountain Biodiversity - Research Planning Workshop»; il apporte une vue d'ensemble sur les recherches actuelles portant sur la biodiversité des montagnes en Europe. On y discute les (a traits biogéographiques, (b les caractéristiques générales- de la biodiversité, (c les facteurs environnementaux et la régulation de la biodiversité par rapport à la fonction des écosystèmes, (d les résultats des études sur les écosystèmes aquatiques des montagnes et (e les

  3. The value of biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CJR. Alho

    Full Text Available In addition to its intrinsic value (nature working as it is; species are the product of a long history of continuing evolution by means of ecological processes, and so they have the right to continued existence, biodiversity also plays a fundamental role as ecosystem services in the maintenance of natural ecological processes. The economic or utilitarian values of biodiversity rely upon the dependence of man on biodiversity; products that nature can provide: wood, food, fibers to make paper, resins, chemical organic products, genes as well as knowledge for biotechnology, including medicine and cosmetic sub-products. It also encompasses ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, reproductive and feeding habitats for commercial fish, some organisms that can create soil fertility through complex cycles and interactions, such as earthworms, termites and bacteria, in addition to fungi responsible for cycling nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur and making them available to plant absorption. These services are the benefits that people indirectly receive from natural ecosystem functions (air quality maintenance, regional climate, water quality, nutrient cycling, reproductive habitats of commercial fish, etc. with their related economic values.

  4. Role of the atmospheric mean state on the initiation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in a tropical channel model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Pallav; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL (United States); Moncrieff, Mitchell W.; Dudhia, Jim; Caron, Julie M.; Bruyere, Cindy [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Tropical channel models, defined as models that are global in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction, are particularly useful for simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and understanding its physical and dynamical basis. Influences from the extratropics through the lateral boundaries have been found to be essential to the reproduction of the initiation of certain MJO events. This led to a hypothesis that multi-year simulations using a tropical channel model would reproduce reasonable MJO statistics under the influence of prescribed lateral boundary conditions derived from global reanalyses. Interestingly, the MJO statistics in such a multi-year simulation by a high-resolution tropical channel model are not better than those from global climate models. The error in the atmospheric mean state is found to be a possible reason for the poor MJO statistics in the simulation. Nevertheless, even with a large error in the mean state, the multi-year simulation captures two MJO events previously found to be initiated by extratropical influences. However, the model does not reproduce a third event, whose initiation is not directly influenced by the extratropics. This implies that in the absence of dynamical interactions between the MJO and the lateral boundary conditions, the error in the mean state could be sufficient to prevent the MJO initiation. To explore this third MJO event further, a series of sensitivity tests are conducted. These tests show that the simulation of this event is neither critically influenced by the cumulus parameterization employed, nor the initial conditions when the model is integrated 2 weeks prior to the MJO initiation. The model captures this event when the MJO signal is already present in the initial conditions. The use of high-resolution sea surface temperature does not improve the simulation of the third MJO event. A higher-resolution nested domain covering the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and including a cloud

  5. Possible climatic impact of tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, G L; Ellsaesser, H W; MacCracken, M C; Luther, F M

    1975-12-25

    A computer model of climate changes resulting from removal of tropical rain forests to increase arable acreage is described. A chain of consequences is deduced from the model which begins with deforestation and ends with overall global cooling and a reduction in precipitation. A model of the global water budget shows that the reduction in precipitation is accompanied by cooling in the upper tropical troposphere, a lowering of the tropical tropopause, and a warming of the lower tropical stratosphere. (HLW)

  6. Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunxiao Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be wel