WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling tropical biodiversity

  1. Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F.; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J.; de Santana, Charles N.; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2016-05-01

    The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics.

  2. A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newbold, Tim; Hudson, Lawrence N.; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Contu, Sara; Lysenko, Igor; Blandon, Abigayil; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Booth, Hollie L.; Day, Julie; De Palma, Adriana; Harrison, Michelle L. K.; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Pynegar, Edwin; Robinson, Alexandra; Simpson, Jake; Mace, Georgina M.; Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.; Purvis, Andy

    2014-01-01

    Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups—invertebrates, ‘herptiles’ (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds—respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and—within birds and mammals—between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species. PMID:25143038

  3. Cycad diversification and tropical biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rull, V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The recent unexpected discovery that living Cycadales are not Jurassic-Cretaceous (200– 65 Mya relicts, as all their extant genera began to diversify during the Late Miocene (12 Mya, has challenged a classical evolutionary myth. This brief note shows how this finding may also provide new clues on the shaping of the high tropical biodiversity

    El reciente e inesperado descubrimiento de que las Cycadales actuales no son relictos Jurásico-Cretácicos (200-65 Mya, ya que todos sus géneros iniciaron su diversificación durante el Mioceno Tardío (12 Mya, ha puesto en entredicho un mito evolutivo clásico. En esta nota se expone como este hallazgo puede, además, proporcionar nuevas pistas sobre el origen de la elevada biodiversidad tropical.

  4. Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilbert, David W

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

  5. Mapping tropical biodiversity using spectroscopic imagery : characterization of structural and chemical diversity with 3-D radiative transfer modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feret, J. B.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.; Lefèvre-Fonollosa, M. J.; Proisy, C.; Asner, G. P.

    2014-12-01

    The accelerating loss of biodiversity is a major environmental trend. Tropical ecosystems are particularly threatened due to climate change, invasive species, farming and natural resources exploitation. Recent advances in remote sensing of biodiversity confirmed the potential of high spatial resolution spectroscopic imagery for species identification and biodiversity mapping. Such information bridges the scale-gap between small-scale, highly detailed field studies and large-scale, low-resolution satellite observations. In order to produce fine-scale resolution maps of canopy alpha-diversity and beta-diversity of the Peruvian Amazonian forest, we designed, applied and validated a method based on spectral variation hypothesis to CAO AToMS (Carnegie Airborne Observatory Airborne Taxonomic Mapping System) images, acquired from 2011 to 2013. There is a need to understand on a quantitative basis the physical processes leading to this spectral variability. This spectral variability mainly depends on canopy chemistry, structure, and sensor's characteristics. 3D radiative transfer modeling provides a powerful framework for the study of the relative influence of each of these factors in dense and complex canopies. We simulated series of spectroscopic images with the 3D radiative model DART, with variability gradients in terms of leaf chemistry, individual tree structure, spatial and spectral resolution, and applied methods for biodiversity mapping. This sensitivity study allowed us to determine the relative influence of these factors on the radiometric signal acquired by different types of sensors. Such study is particularly important to define the domain of validity of our approach, to refine requirements for the instrumental specifications, and to help preparing hyperspectral spatial missions to be launched at the horizon 2015-2025 (EnMAP, PRISMA, HISUI, SHALOM, HYSPIRI, HYPXIM). Simulations in preparation include topographic variations in order to estimate the robustness

  6. Plant biodiversity changes in Carboniferous tropical wetlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleal, C. J.; Uhl, D.; Cascales-Miñana, B.

    2012-01-01

    Using a combination of species richness, polycohort and constrained cluster analyses, the plant biodiversity of Pennsylvanian (late Carboniferous) tropical wetlands (“coal swamps”) has been investigated in five areas in Western Europe and eastern North America: South Wales, Pennines, Ruhr, Saarland...

  7. The underestimated biodiversity of tropical grassy biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Brett P; Andersen, Alan N; Parr, Catherine L

    2016-09-19

    For decades, there has been enormous scientific interest in tropical savannahs and grasslands, fuelled by the recognition that they are a dynamic and potentially unstable biome, requiring periodic disturbance for their maintenance. However, that scientific interest has not translated into widespread appreciation of, and concern about threats to, their biodiversity. In terms of biodiversity, grassy biomes are considered poor cousins of the other dominant biome of the tropics-forests. Simple notions of grassy biomes being species-poor cannot be supported; for some key taxa, such as vascular plants, this may be valid, but for others it is not. Here, we use an analysis of existing data to demonstrate that high-rainfall tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) have vertebrate species richness comparable with that of forests, despite having lower plant diversity. The Neotropics stand out in terms of both overall vertebrate species richness and number of range-restricted vertebrate species in TGBs. Given high rates of land-cover conversion in Neotropical grassy biomes, they should be a high priority for conservation and greater inclusion in protected areas. Fire needs to be actively maintained in these systems, and in many cases re-introduced after decades of inappropriate fire exclusion. The relative intactness of TGBs in Africa and Australia make them the least vulnerable to biodiversity loss in the immediate future. We argue that, like forests, TGBs should be recognized as a critical-but increasingly threatened-store of global biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. The integration of empirical, remote sensing and modelling approaches enhances insight in the role of biodiversity in climate change mitigation by tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sande, van der Masha T.; Poorter, Lourens; Balvanera, Patricia; Kooistra, Lammert; Thonicke, Kirsten; Boit, Alice; Dutrieux, Loic; Equihua, Julian; Gerard, France; Herold, Martin; Kolb, Melanie; Simões, Margareth; Peña-Claros, Marielos

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests store and sequester high amounts of carbon and are the most diverse terrestrial ecosystem. A complete understanding of the relationship between biodiversity and carbon storage and sequestration across spatiotemporal scales relevant for climate change mitigation needs three

  9. Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Luke; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Gardner, Toby A; Barlow, Jos; Peres, Carlos A; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Laurance, William F; Lovejoy, Thomas E; Sodhi, Navjot S

    2011-09-14

    Human-driven land-use changes increasingly threaten biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where both species diversity and human pressures on natural environments are high. The rapid conversion of tropical forests for agriculture, timber production and other uses has generated vast, human-dominated landscapes with potentially dire consequences for tropical biodiversity. Today, few truly undisturbed tropical forests exist, whereas those degraded by repeated logging and fires, as well as secondary and plantation forests, are rapidly expanding. Here we provide a global assessment of the impact of disturbance and land conversion on biodiversity in tropical forests using a meta-analysis of 138 studies. We analysed 2,220 pairwise comparisons of biodiversity values in primary forests (with little or no human disturbance) and disturbed forests. We found that biodiversity values were substantially lower in degraded forests, but that this varied considerably by geographic region, taxonomic group, ecological metric and disturbance type. Even after partly accounting for confounding colonization and succession effects due to the composition of surrounding habitats, isolation and time since disturbance, we find that most forms of forest degradation have an overwhelmingly detrimental effect on tropical biodiversity. Our results clearly indicate that when it comes to maintaining tropical biodiversity, there is no substitute for primary forests.

  10. Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Zorello Laporta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text] estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate

  11. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.F. Laurance; D.C. Useche; J. Rendeiro; and others NO-VALUE; Ariel Lugo

    2012-01-01

    The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon1–3. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment...

  12. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  13. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laurence, W. F.; Novotný, Vojtěch

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 489, č. 7415 (2012), s. 290-294 ISSN 0028-0836 Grant - others:NSF grant(AU) RCN-0741956 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : biodiversity * tropical forest * collapse Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 38.597, year: 2012 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nature11318.pdf

  14. The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abreu, Rodolfo C R; Hoffmann, William A; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Pilon, Natashi A; Rossatto, Davi R; Durigan, Giselda

    2017-08-01

    Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha -1 year -1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation.

  15. Restoring biodiversity and forest ecosystem services in degraded tropical landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Parrotta

    2010-01-01

    Over the past century, an estimated 850 million ha of the world’s tropical forests have been lost or severely degraded, with serious impacts on local and regional biodiversity. A significant proportion of these lands were originally cleared of their forest cover for agricultural development or other economic uses. Today, however, they provide few if any environmental...

  16. Biodiversity and the functioning of tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sande, van der M.T.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are the most diverse terrestrial ecosystems. Moreover, their capacity for removal of carbon from the atmosphere makes them important for climate change mitigation. Theories predict that species use resources in a different way, and therefore high species diversity would result in

  17. Habitat modeling for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2006-01-01

    Habitat models address only 1 component of biodiversity but can be useful in addressing and managing single or multiple species and ecosystem functions, for projecting disturbance regimes, and in supporting decisions. I review categories and examples of habitat models, their utility for biodiversity conservation, and their roles in making conservation decisions. I...

  18. Major Australian tropical fruits biodiversity: bioactive compounds and their bioactivities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Jean T; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Shaw, Paul N; Roberts-Thomson, Sarah J; Monteith, Gregory R; Gidley, Michael J

    2012-03-01

    The plant kingdom harbours many diverse bioactive molecules of pharmacological relevance. Temperate fruits and vegetables have been highly studied in this regard, but there have been fewer studies of fruits and vegetables from the tropics. As global consumers demand and are prepared to pay for new appealing and exotic foods, tropical fruits are now being more intensively investigated. Polyphenols and major classes of compounds like flavonoids or carotenoids are ubiquitously present in these fruits, as they are in the temperate ones, but particular classes of compounds are unique to tropical fruits and other plant parts. Bioactivity studies of compounds specific to tropical fruit plants may lead to new drug discoveries, while the synergistic action of the wide range of diverse compounds contained in plant extracts underlies nutritional and health properties of tropical fruits and vegetables. The evidence for in vitro and animal bioactivities is a strong indicator of the pharmacological promise shown in tropical fruit plant biodiversity. In this review, we will discuss both the occurrence of potential bioactive compounds isolated and identified from a selection of tropical fruit plants of importance in Australia, as well as recent studies of bioactivity associated with such fruits and other fruit plant parts. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. The Value of Tropical Biodiversity in Rural Melanesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Foale

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss differences in the ways transnational conservationists and Melanesian farmers, hunters and fishers value "biodiversity". The money for conservation projects in developing countries originates from people who are embedded in a capitalist system, which allows engagement with nature as an abstract entity. Their western education has given them a scientific/ evolutionary-based worldview, which attributes intrinsic value to all species (and particular arrangements of species, e.g. rainforests and coral reefs, irrespective of economic value or ecosystem function. Because this value system is mostly not shared by the custodians of the biodiversity that conservationists want to save, alternative tactics and arguments are utilised. These inevitably take the form of so-called "win-win" economic rationales for preserving biodiversity, most of which do not work well (e.g. bioprospecting, ecotourism, non-timber forest products, environmental certification schemes, payments for ecosystem services, etc., for reasons which we detail. Agriculture- and aquaculture-based livelihoods appear to enjoy more success than the "win-win" options but do not necessarily obviate or deter further biodiversity loss. Artisanal use of species-poor but productive and resilient pelagic fisheries is increasing. These ecological and economic realities bring into sharp focus the importance of understanding differences in value systems for successful biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  20. Optimizing carbon storage and biodiversity protection in tropical agricultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, James J; Woodcock, Paul; Edwards, Felicity A; Wheeler, Charlotte; Medina Uribe, Claudia A; Haugaasen, Torbjørn; Edwards, David P

    2014-07-01

    With the rapidly expanding ecological footprint of agriculture, the design of farmed landscapes will play an increasingly important role for both carbon storage and biodiversity protection. Carbon and biodiversity can be enhanced by integrating natural habitats into agricultural lands, but a key question is whether benefits are maximized by including many small features throughout the landscape ('land-sharing' agriculture) or a few large contiguous blocks alongside intensive farmland ('land-sparing' agriculture). In this study, we are the first to integrate carbon storage alongside multi-taxa biodiversity assessments to compare land-sparing and land-sharing frameworks. We do so by sampling carbon stocks and biodiversity (birds and dung beetles) in landscapes containing agriculture and forest within the Colombian Chocó-Andes, a zone of high global conservation priority. We show that woodland fragments embedded within a matrix of cattle pasture hold less carbon per unit area than contiguous primary or advanced secondary forests (>15 years). Farmland sites also support less diverse bird and dung beetle communities than contiguous forests, even when farmland retains high levels of woodland habitat cover. Landscape simulations based on these data suggest that land-sparing strategies would be more beneficial for both carbon storage and biodiversity than land-sharing strategies across a range of production levels. Biodiversity benefits of land-sparing are predicted to be similar whether spared lands protect primary or advanced secondary forests, owing to the close similarity of bird and dung beetle communities between the two forest classes. Land-sparing schemes that encourage the protection and regeneration of natural forest blocks thus provide a synergy between carbon and biodiversity conservation, and represent a promising strategy for reducing the negative impacts of agriculture on tropical ecosystems. However, further studies examining a wider range of ecosystem

  1. Restoring degraded tropical forests for carbon and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budiharta, Sugeng; Meijaard, Erik; Wilson, Kerrie A; Erskine, Peter D; Rondinini, Carlo; Pacifici, Michela

    2014-01-01

    The extensive deforestation and degradation of tropical forests is a significant contributor to the loss of biodiversity and to global warming. Restoration could potentially mitigate the impacts of deforestation, yet knowledge on how to efficiently allocate funding for restoration is still in its infancy. We systematically prioritize investments in restoration in the tropical landscape of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and through this application demonstrate the capacity to account for a diverse suite of restoration techniques and forests of varying condition. To achieve this we develop a map of forest degradation for the region, characterized on the basis of aboveground biomass and differentiated by broad forest types. We estimate the costs of restoration as well as the benefits in terms of carbon sequestration and improving the suitability of habitat for threatened mammals through time. When the objective is solely to enhance carbon stocks, then restoration of highly degraded lowland forest is the most cost-effective activity. However, if the objective is to improve the habitat of threatened species, multiple forest types should be restored and this reduces the accumulated carbon by up to 24%. Our analysis framework provides a transparent method for prioritizing where and how restoration should occur in heterogeneous landscapes in order to maximize the benefits for carbon and biodiversity. (letter)

  2. Restoring degraded tropical forests for carbon and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiharta, Sugeng; Meijaard, Erik; Erskine, Peter D.; Rondinini, Carlo; Pacifici, Michela; Wilson, Kerrie A.

    2014-11-01

    The extensive deforestation and degradation of tropical forests is a significant contributor to the loss of biodiversity and to global warming. Restoration could potentially mitigate the impacts of deforestation, yet knowledge on how to efficiently allocate funding for restoration is still in its infancy. We systematically prioritize investments in restoration in the tropical landscape of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and through this application demonstrate the capacity to account for a diverse suite of restoration techniques and forests of varying condition. To achieve this we develop a map of forest degradation for the region, characterized on the basis of aboveground biomass and differentiated by broad forest types. We estimate the costs of restoration as well as the benefits in terms of carbon sequestration and improving the suitability of habitat for threatened mammals through time. When the objective is solely to enhance carbon stocks, then restoration of highly degraded lowland forest is the most cost-effective activity. However, if the objective is to improve the habitat of threatened species, multiple forest types should be restored and this reduces the accumulated carbon by up to 24%. Our analysis framework provides a transparent method for prioritizing where and how restoration should occur in heterogeneous landscapes in order to maximize the benefits for carbon and biodiversity.

  3. An agricultural model for biodiversity conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Travis, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This presentation discusses the SANREM CRSP long term research activity (LTRA-2), "An Agricultural Markets Model for Biodiversity Conservation," in the Luangwa Valley of Zambia. The objectives are: LTRA-2 (An Agricultural Markets Model for Biodiversity Conservation)

  4. Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian J; Coombes, Emma; Fitzherbert, Emily; Binner, Amy; Bad'ura, Tomáš; Carbone, Chris; Fisher, Brendan; Naidoo, Robin; Watkinson, Andrew R

    2015-06-16

    The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing--and to-date insufficient--approaches to conservation.

  5. Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian J.; Coombes, Emma; Fitzherbert, Emily; Binner, Amy; Bad’ura, Tomáš; Carbone, Chris; Fisher, Brendan; Naidoo, Robin; Watkinson, Andrew R.

    2015-01-01

    The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing—and to-date insufficient—approaches to conservation. PMID:26077906

  6. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, J.A.; O’Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Jansen, P.A.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity

  7. Road-networks, a practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in Tropical forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosaka, T; Yamada, T; Okuda, T

    2014-01-01

    Tropical forests sustain the most diverse plants and animals in the world, but are also being lost most rapidly. Rapid assessment and monitoring using remote sensing on biodiversity of tropical forests is needed to predict and evaluate biodiversity loss by human activities. Identification of reliable indicators of forest biodiversity and/or its loss is an urgent issue. In the present paper, we propose the density of road networks in tropical forests can be a good and practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in tropical forests through reviewing papers and introducing our preliminary survey in peninsular Malaysia. Many previous studies suggest a strong negative impact of forest roads on biodiversity in tropical rainforests since they changes microclimate, soil properties, drainage patterns, canopy openness and forest accessibility. Moreover, our preliminary survey also showed that even a narrow logging road (6 m wide) significantly lowered abundance of dung beetles (well-known bio-indicator in biodiversity survey in tropical forests) near the road. Since these road networks are readily to be detected with remote sensing approach such as aerial photographs and Lider, regulation and monitoring of the road networks using remote sensing techniques is a key to slow down the rate of biodiversity loss due to forest degradation in tropical forests

  8. Would protecting tropical forest fragments provide carbon and biodiversity cobenefits under REDD+?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnago, Luiz Fernando S; Magrach, Ainhoa; Laurance, William F; Martins, Sebastião V; Meira-Neto, João Augusto A; Simonelli, Marcelo; Edwards, David P

    2015-09-01

    Tropical forests store vast amounts of carbon and are the most biodiverse terrestrial habitats, yet they are being converted and degraded at alarming rates. Given global shortfalls in the budgets required to prevent carbon and biodiversity loss, we need to seek solutions that simultaneously address both issues. Of particular interest are carbon-based payments under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism to also conserve biodiversity at no additional cost. One potential is for REDD+ to protect forest fragments, especially within biomes where contiguous forest cover has diminished dramatically, but we require empirical tests of the strength of any carbon and biodiversity cobenefits in such fragmented systems. Using the globally threatened Atlantic Forest landscape, we measured above-ground carbon stocks within forest fragments spanning 13 to 23 442 ha in area and with different degrees of isolation. We related these stocks to tree community structure and to the richness and abundance of endemic and IUCN Red-listed species. We found that increasing fragment size has a positive relationship with above-ground carbon stock and with abundance of IUCN Red-listed species and tree community structure. We also found negative relationships between distance from large forest block and tree community structure, endemic species richness and abundance, and IUCN Red-listed species abundance. These resulted in positive congruence between carbon stocks and Red-listed species, and the abundance and richness of endemic species, demonstrating vital cobenefits. As such, protecting forest fragments in hotspots of biodiversity, particularly larger fragments and those closest to sources, offers important carbon and biodiversity cobenefits. More generally, our results suggest that macroscale models of cobenefits under REDD+ have likely overlooked key benefits at small scales, indicating the necessity to apply models that include finer

  9. Relationships between Meiofaunal Biodiversity and Prokaryotic Heterotrophic Production in Different Tropical Habitats and Oceanic Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Pusceddu, Antonio; Gambi, Cristina; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Scopa, Mariaspina; Danovaro, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF) is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production a...

  10. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  11. Prospects for tropical forest biodiversity in a human-modified world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Toby A; Barlow, Jos; Chazdon, Robin; Ewers, Robert M; Harvey, Celia A; Peres, Carlos A; Sodhi, Navjot S

    2009-06-01

    The future of tropical forest biodiversity depends more than ever on the effective management of human-modified landscapes, presenting a daunting challenge to conservation practitioners and land use managers. We provide a critical synthesis of the scientific insights that guide our understanding of patterns and processes underpinning forest biodiversity in the human-modified tropics, and present a conceptual framework that integrates a broad range of social and ecological factors that define and contextualize the possible future of tropical forest species. A growing body of research demonstrates that spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity are the dynamic product of interacting historical and contemporary human and ecological processes. These processes vary radically in their relative importance within and among regions, and have effects that may take years to become fully manifest. Interpreting biodiversity research findings is frequently made difficult by constrained study designs, low congruence in species responses to disturbance, shifting baselines and an over-dependence on comparative inferences from a small number of well studied localities. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the potential prospects for biodiversity conservation can be explained by regional differences in biotic vulnerability and anthropogenic legacies, an ever-tighter coupling of human-ecological systems and the influence of global environmental change. These differences provide both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Building upon our synthesis we outline a simple adaptive-landscape planning framework that can help guide a new research agenda to enhance biodiversity conservation prospects in the human-modified tropics.

  12. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Beaudrot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes

  13. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, Jorge A; O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R; Willig, Michael R; Winarni, Nurul L; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  14. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A.; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H.; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R.; Willig, Michael R.; Winarni, Nurul L.; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  15. Will concern for biodiversity spell doom to tropical forest management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.E. Lugo

    1999-01-01

    Arguments against active tropical management are analyzed in light of available data and new research that shows tropical forests to be more resilient after disturbances than previously thought. Tropical forest management involves a diverse array of human activity embedded in a complex social and natural environment. Within this milieu, forest structure and composition...

  16. Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Mercedes M C; Roitman, Iris; Aide, T Mitchell; Alencar, Ane; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz; Asner, Gregory P; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Chambers, Jeffrey; Costa, Marcos H; Fanin, Thierry; Ferreira, Laerte G; Ferreira, Joice; Keller, Michael; Magnusson, William E; Morales-Barquero, Lucia; Morton, Douglas; Ometto, Jean P H B; Palace, Michael; Peres, Carlos A; Silvério, Divino; Trumbore, Susan; Vieira, Ima C G

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Estimating animal biodiversity across taxa in tropical forests using shape-based waveform lidar metrics and Landsat image time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muss, J. D.; Aguilar-Amuchastegui, N.; Henebry, G. M.

    2012-12-01

    Studies have shown that forest structural heterogeneity is a key variable for estimating the diversity, richness, and community structure of forest species such as birds, butterflies, and dung beetles. These relationships are especially relevant in tropical forests when assessing the impacts of forest management plans on indicator groups and species. Typically, forest structure and biodiversity are evaluated using field surveys, which are expensive and spatially limited. An alternative is to use the growing archive of imagery to assess the impacts that disturbances (such as those caused by selective logging) have on habitats and biodiversity. But it can be difficult to capture subtle differences in the three-dimensional (3D) forest structure at the landscape scale that are important for modeling these relationships. We use a unique confluence of active and passive optical sensor data, field surveys of biodiversity, and stand management data to link metrics of spatial and spatio-temporal heterogeneity with key indicators of sustainable forest management. Field sites were selected from tropical forest stands along the Atlantic Slope of Costa Rica for which the management history was known and in which biodiversity surveys were conducted. The vertical dimension of forest structure was assessed by applying two shape-based metrics, the centroid (C) and radius of gyration (RG), to full waveform lidar data collected by the LVIS platform over central Costa Rica in 2005. We developed a map of the vertical structure of the forest by implementing a recursive function that used C and RG to identify major segments of each waveform. Differences in 3D structure were related to estimates of animal biodiversity, size and type of disturbance, and time since disturbance—critical measurements for achieving verifiable sustainable management and conservation of biodiversity in tropical forests. Moreover, the relationships found between 3D structure and biodiversity suggests that it

  18. An exceptional role for flowering plant physiology in the expansion of tropical rainforests and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, C Kevin; Lee, Jung-Eun

    2010-11-22

    Movement of water from soil to atmosphere by plant transpiration can feed precipitation, but is limited by the hydraulic capacities of plants, which have not been uniform through time. The flowering plants that dominate modern vegetation possess transpiration capacities that are dramatically higher than any other plants, living or extinct. Transpiration operates at the level of the leaf, however, and how the impact of this physiological revolution scales up to the landscape and larger environment remains unclear. Here, climate modelling demonstrates that angiosperms help ensure aseasonally high levels of precipitation in the modern tropics. Most strikingly, replacement of angiosperm with non-angiosperm vegetation would result in a hotter, drier and more seasonal Amazon basin, decreasing the overall area of ever-wet rainforest by 80 per cent. Thus, flowering plant ecological dominance has strongly altered climate and the global hydrological cycle. Because tropical biodiversity is closely tied to precipitation and rainforest area, angiosperm climate modification may have promoted diversification of the angiosperms themselves, as well as radiations of diverse vertebrate and invertebrate animal lineages and of epiphytic plants. Their exceptional potential for environmental modification may have contributed to divergent responses to similar climates and global perturbations, like mass extinctions, before and after angiosperm evolution.

  19. The impact of logging on biodiversity and carbon sequestration in tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, R.

    2012-04-01

    Tropical deforestation is one of the most relevant environmental issues at planetary scale. Forest clearcutting has dramatic effect on local biodiversity, on the terrestrial carbon sink and atmospheric GHGs balance. In terms of protection of tropical forests selective logging is, instead, often regarded as a minor or even positive management practice for the ecosystem and it is supported by international certifications. However, few studies are available on changes in the structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services due to the selective logging of African forests. This paper presents the results of a survey on tropical forests of West and Central Africa, with a comparison of long-term dynamics, structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services (such as the carbon sequestration) of different types of forests, from virgin primary to selectively logged and secondary forest. Our study suggests that there is a persistent effect of selective logging on biodiversity and carbon stock losses in the long term (up to 30 years since logging) and after repeated logging. These effects, in terms of species richness and biomass, are greater than the expected losses from commercial harvesting, implying that selective logging in West and Central Africa is impairing long term (at least until 30 years) ecosystem structure and services. A longer selective logging cycle (>30 years) should be considered by logging companies although there is not yet enough information to consider this practice sustainable.

  20. Biodiversity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Tropical to Temperate Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond L. Specht

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During the short period of annual foliage growth in evergreen plant communities, aerodynamic fluxes (frictional, thermal, evaporative in the atmosphere as it flows over and through a plant community determine the Foliage Projective Covers and leaf attributes in overstorey and understorey strata. The number of leaves produced on each vertical foliage shoot depends on available soil water and nutrients during this growth period. The area of all leaves exposed to solar radiation determines net photosynthetic fixation of the plant community throughout the year. In turn, the species richness (number of species per hectare of both plants and resident vertebrates is determined. The species richness of unicellular algae and small multicellular isopods in permanent freshwater lagoons in Northern Australia may possibly have been increased by radiation released from nearby uranium deposits. Evolution of new angiosperms probably occurred in refugia during periods of extreme drought. When favourable climates were restored, the vegetation expanded to result in high Gamma Biodiversity (number of plant species per region but with each major plant community having essentially the same species richness (number of plant species per hectare. The probable effects of pollution and Global Warming on biodiversity in Australian ecosystems, that experience seasonal drought, are discussed.

  1. Can Joint Carbon and Biodiversity Management in Tropical Agroforestry Landscapes Be Optimized?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Michael; Hertel, Dietrich; Jungkunst, Hermann F.; Kluge, Jürgen; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Bos, Merijn; Buchori, Damayanti; Gerold, Gerhard; Gradstein, S. Robbert; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Moser, Gerald; Pitopang, Ramadhanil; Saleh, Shahabuddin; Schulze, Christian H.; Sporn, Simone G.; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S.; Tscharntke, Teja

    2012-01-01

    Managing ecosystems for carbon storage may also benefit biodiversity conservation, but such a potential ‘win-win’ scenario has not yet been assessed for tropical agroforestry landscapes. We measured above- and below-ground carbon stocks as well as the species richness of four groups of plants and eight of animals on 14 representative plots in Sulawesi, Indonesia, ranging from natural rainforest to cacao agroforests that have replaced former natural forest. The conversion of natural forests with carbon stocks of 227–362 Mg C ha−1 to agroforests with 82–211 Mg C ha−1 showed no relationships to overall biodiversity but led to a significant loss of forest-related species richness. We conclude that the conservation of the forest-related biodiversity, and to a lesser degree of carbon stocks, mainly depends on the preservation of natural forest habitats. In the three most carbon-rich agroforestry systems, carbon stocks were about 60% of those of natural forest, suggesting that 1.6 ha of optimally managed agroforest can contribute to the conservation of carbon stocks as much as 1 ha of natural forest. However, agroforestry systems had comparatively low biodiversity, and we found no evidence for a tight link between carbon storage and biodiversity. Yet, potential win-win agroforestry management solutions include combining high shade-tree quality which favours biodiversity with cacao-yield adapted shade levels. PMID:23077569

  2. Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jos; Lennox, Gareth D; Ferreira, Joice; Berenguer, Erika; Lees, Alexander C; Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Ferraz, Silvio Frosini de Barros; Louzada, Julio; Oliveira, Victor Hugo Fonseca; Parry, Luke; Solar, Ricardo Ribeiro de Castro; Vieira, Ima C G; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Begotti, Rodrigo Anzolin; Braga, Rodrigo F; Cardoso, Thiago Moreira; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Souza, Carlos M; Moura, Nárgila G; Nunes, Sâmia Serra; Siqueira, João Victor; Pardini, Renata; Silveira, Juliana M; Vaz-de-Mello, Fernando Z; Veiga, Ruan Carlo Stulpen; Venturieri, Adriano; Gardner, Toby A

    2016-07-07

    Concerted political attention has focused on reducing deforestation, and this remains the cornerstone of most biodiversity conservation strategies. However, maintaining forest cover may not reduce anthropogenic forest disturbances, which are rarely considered in conservation programmes. These disturbances occur both within forests, including selective logging and wildfires, and at the landscape level, through edge, area and isolation effects. Until now, the combined effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the conservation value of remnant primary forests has remained unknown, making it impossible to assess the relative importance of forest disturbance and forest loss. Here we address these knowledge gaps using a large data set of plants, birds and dung beetles (1,538, 460 and 156 species, respectively) sampled in 36 catchments in the Brazilian state of Pará. Catchments retaining more than 69–80% forest cover lost more conservation value from disturbance than from forest loss. For example, a 20% loss of primary forest, the maximum level of deforestation allowed on Amazonian properties under Brazil’s Forest Code, resulted in a 39–54% loss of conservation value: 96–171% more than expected without considering disturbance effects. We extrapolated the disturbance-mediated loss of conservation value throughout Pará, which covers 25% of the Brazilian Amazon. Although disturbed forests retained considerable conservation value compared with deforested areas, the toll of disturbance outside Pará’s strictly protected areas is equivalent to the loss of 92,000–139,000 km2 of primary forest. Even this lowest estimate is greater than the area deforested across the entire Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2015 (ref. 10). Species distribution models showed that both landscape and within-forest disturbances contributed to biodiversity loss, with the greatest negative effects on species of high conservation and functional value. These results demonstrate an urgent need

  3. Parks versus payments: reconciling divergent policy responses to biodiversity loss and climate change from tropical deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, Jonah; Grantham, Hedley S

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity loss and climate change both result from tropical deforestation, yet strategies to address biodiversity loss have focused primarily on protected areas while strategies to address climate change have focused primarily on carbon payments. Conservation planning research has focused largely on where to prioritize protected areas to achieve the greatest representation of species at viable levels. Meanwhile research on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has focused largely on how to design payments to achieve the greatest additional reduction in greenhouse gases relative to baseline rates. This divergence of strategies and research agendas may be attributed to four factors: rare species are more heterogeneously distributed than carbon; species are more difficult to measure and monitor than carbon; species are more sensitive to ecological processes and human disturbance than carbon; and people’s value for species diminishes beyond a threshold while their value for carbon storage does not. Conservation planning can achieve greater biodiversity benefits by adopting the concept of additionality from REDD+. REDD+ can achieve greater climate benefits by incorporating spatial prioritization from conservation planning. Climate and biodiversity benefits can best be jointly achieved from tropical forests by targeting the most additional actions to the most important places. These concepts are illustrated using data from the forests of Indonesia. (letter)

  4. Parks versus payments: reconciling divergent policy responses to biodiversity loss and climate change from tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Jonah; Grantham, Hedley S.

    2013-09-01

    Biodiversity loss and climate change both result from tropical deforestation, yet strategies to address biodiversity loss have focused primarily on protected areas while strategies to address climate change have focused primarily on carbon payments. Conservation planning research has focused largely on where to prioritize protected areas to achieve the greatest representation of species at viable levels. Meanwhile research on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has focused largely on how to design payments to achieve the greatest additional reduction in greenhouse gases relative to baseline rates. This divergence of strategies and research agendas may be attributed to four factors: rare species are more heterogeneously distributed than carbon; species are more difficult to measure and monitor than carbon; species are more sensitive to ecological processes and human disturbance than carbon; and people’s value for species diminishes beyond a threshold while their value for carbon storage does not. Conservation planning can achieve greater biodiversity benefits by adopting the concept of additionality from REDD+. REDD+ can achieve greater climate benefits by incorporating spatial prioritization from conservation planning. Climate and biodiversity benefits can best be jointly achieved from tropical forests by targeting the most additional actions to the most important places. These concepts are illustrated using data from the forests of Indonesia.

  5. Some Implications of High Biodiversity for Management of Tropical Marine Ecosystems—An Australian Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Kenchington

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While high biodiversity has been widely reported from the tropics, we suggest that in reality there is a considerable underestimate of the total biodiversity. We have concentrated on the tropical regions of Australia and the Coral Triangle. The best known groups are the corals, fish, and commercially important invertebrates. In considering whether this is true, we have concentrated on the diversity of benthic communities and water column communities which are poorly known. Yet at the bottom of the food chain these communities are highly dynamic and susceptible to the anthropogenic changes that are occurring with the rapid development in this highly populated region. Tropical biodiversity is under increasing stress from a synergistic combination of changes in climate, oceanographic regimes, increasing coastal development, overfishing, and poor water quality, resulting in bleaching of corals and loss of habitat and of associated fauna. These changes on reefs have received substantial research attention; in comparison, there is limited data on inter-reefal areas and water column communities and limited understanding of the ecological interconnectivity of all these habitats. While in this region there is growing marine protected area coverage, the major focus is on coral reefs with other habitats based on surrogacy with little if any ground-truthing. Within this region, there is limited capacity or inclination to rectify this lack of knowledge of the structure and ecology of the broader non-commercial benthic and pelagic communities. We suggest this lack of knowledge and limited expertise may be widespread throughout the tropics and compromises our ability to understand and predict the changes that are occurring with increasing anthropogenic impacts on these tropical ecosystems.

  6. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  7. Relationships between meiofaunal biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production in different tropical habitats and oceanic regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusceddu, Antonio; Gambi, Cristina; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Scopa, Mariaspina; Danovaro, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF) is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production across seagrass, mangrove and reef sediments in the Caribbean, Celebes and Red Seas. For all variables we report the presence of differences among habitats within the same region, and among regions within the same habitat. In all regions, the richness of meiofaunal taxa in reef and seagrass sediments is higher than in mangrove sediments. The sediments of the Celebes Sea show the highest meiofaunal biodiversity. The composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies significantly among habitats in the same region. The nematode beta diversity among habitats within the same region is higher than the beta diversity among regions. Although one site per habitat was considered in each region, these results suggest that the composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies primarily among biogeographic regions, whereas the composition of nematode assemblages varies more considerably among habitats. Meiofauna and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production, even after the removal of covariate effects linked with longitude and the quantity and nutritional quality of organic matter, are positively and linearly linked both across regions and within each habitat type. Our results confirm that meiofauna and nematode biodiversity may influence benthic prokaryotic activity, which, in turn, implies that diversity loss could have negative impacts on ecosystem functioning in these systems.

  8. Relationships between meiofaunal biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production in different tropical habitats and oceanic regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Pusceddu

    Full Text Available Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production across seagrass, mangrove and reef sediments in the Caribbean, Celebes and Red Seas. For all variables we report the presence of differences among habitats within the same region, and among regions within the same habitat. In all regions, the richness of meiofaunal taxa in reef and seagrass sediments is higher than in mangrove sediments. The sediments of the Celebes Sea show the highest meiofaunal biodiversity. The composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies significantly among habitats in the same region. The nematode beta diversity among habitats within the same region is higher than the beta diversity among regions. Although one site per habitat was considered in each region, these results suggest that the composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies primarily among biogeographic regions, whereas the composition of nematode assemblages varies more considerably among habitats. Meiofauna and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production, even after the removal of covariate effects linked with longitude and the quantity and nutritional quality of organic matter, are positively and linearly linked both across regions and within each habitat type. Our results confirm that meiofauna and nematode biodiversity may influence benthic prokaryotic activity, which, in turn, implies that diversity loss could have negative impacts on ecosystem functioning in these systems.

  9. Phylogenetic inferences reveal a large extent of novel biodiversity in chemically rich tropical marine cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engene, Niclas; Gunasekera, Sarath P; Gerwick, William H; Paul, Valerie J

    2013-03-01

    Benthic marine cyanobacteria are known for their prolific biosynthetic capacities to produce structurally diverse secondary metabolites with biomedical application and their ability to form cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. In an effort to provide taxonomic clarity to better guide future natural product drug discovery investigations and harmful algal bloom monitoring, this study investigated the taxonomy of tropical and subtropical natural product-producing marine cyanobacteria on the basis of their evolutionary relatedness. Our phylogenetic inferences of marine cyanobacterial strains responsible for over 100 bioactive secondary metabolites revealed an uneven taxonomic distribution, with a few groups being responsible for the vast majority of these molecules. Our data also suggest a high degree of novel biodiversity among natural product-producing strains that was previously overlooked by traditional morphology-based taxonomic approaches. This unrecognized biodiversity is primarily due to a lack of proper classification systems since the taxonomy of tropical and subtropical, benthic marine cyanobacteria has only recently been analyzed by phylogenetic methods. This evolutionary study provides a framework for a more robust classification system to better understand the taxonomy of tropical and subtropical marine cyanobacteria and the distribution of natural products in marine cyanobacteria.

  10. Relationships between Plant Biodiversity and Soil Fertility in a Mature Tropical Forest, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin B. Nadeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to study relationships between plant biodiversity and soil chemical fertility in a mature tropical forest of Costa Rica. Soil samples were collected in nine sampling plots (5 m by 25 m in order to identify P, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Zn, Mn, Cu, and Al and total N contents, soil fertility index, CEC, pH, and C/N ratio. Furthermore, species richness, Shannon-Wiener and Simpson’s species diversities, structural richness, and structural diversity were calculated for each plot. Simple linear regression analyses were conducted. Tree species richness was inversely related to concentration levels of K, Ca, and P, CEC, and soil fertility index. Therefore, higher tree species richness tended to be found on sites with lower soil fertility, which is the complete opposite of temperate forests. As a result, tropical and temperate forest ecology should be considered separately. Shannon-Wiener tree species diversity was positively correlated to C/N ratio. Herb structural richness was positively correlated with soil fertility index and P concentration. Therefore, herb structural richness may be a good indicator of soil fertility. This study gives important insights on ecological relationships between plant biodiversity and soil chemical fertility in a primary tropical forest.

  11. Wildfires, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity in Tropical Dry Forest in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerbeck, Joachim; Fiener, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This review is intended to contribute to the understanding of the interlinkage between wildfire in India's tropical dry forest (TDF) and selected ecosystem services (ES), namely forest provisioning and water regulating services, as well as biodiversity. TDF covers approximately 146,000 km(2) (4.4%) of India, whereas according to the MODIS fire product about 2200 km(2) (1.4%) burns per year. As studies on wildfire effects upon ESs and biodiversity in Indian TDFs are rare we partly transferred findings from other (dry) forest areas to the environmental situation in India. In India (intentionally lit) wildfires have a very important connection to local livelihoods and the availability of non-wood forest products. Very important adverse long-term effects are the deterioration of forest ecosystems and soil degradation. The potential for TDF to regulate hydrological cycles is expected to be greater in the absence of fire than with it. A general judgment on the effect of fire on biodiversity is difficult as it depends on the community and species involved but a loss of biodiversity under regular burnings is apparent. Consequently, forest managers need sound knowledge regarding the interplay of wildfires and ecosystem behavior in general and more specific knowledge regarding the effects on taxa being considered for conservation efforts. Generally, much more research is needed to understand the trade-offs between the short-term benefits gained from forest provisioning services and long-term adverse effects.

  12. Wildfires, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity in Tropical Dry Forest in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerbeck, Joachim; Fiener, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This review is intended to contribute to the understanding of the interlinkage between wildfire in India's tropical dry forest (TDF) and selected ecosystem services (ES), namely forest provisioning and water regulating services, as well as biodiversity. TDF covers approximately 146,000 km2 (4.4 %) of India, whereas according to the MODIS fire product about 2200 km2 (1.4 %) burns per year. As studies on wildfire effects upon ESs and biodiversity in Indian TDFs are rare we partly transferred findings from other (dry) forest areas to the environmental situation in India. In India (intentionally lit) wildfires have a very important connection to local livelihoods and the availability of non-wood forest products. Very important adverse long-term effects are the deterioration of forest ecosystems and soil degradation. The potential for TDF to regulate hydrological cycles is expected to be greater in the absence of fire than with it. A general judgment on the effect of fire on biodiversity is difficult as it depends on the community and species involved but a loss of biodiversity under regular burnings is apparent. Consequently, forest managers need sound knowledge regarding the interplay of wildfires and ecosystem behavior in general and more specific knowledge regarding the effects on taxa being considered for conservation efforts. Generally, much more research is needed to understand the trade-offs between the short-term benefits gained from forest provisioning services and long-term adverse effects.

  13. Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

  14. Managing biodiversity for a competitive ecotourism industry in tropical developing countries: New opportunities in biological fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, Luchman

    2017-11-01

    Managing biodiversity for sustainable and competitive ecotourism destinations requires a basic understanding of the principles of biology, which are poorly understood in tropical developing countries, including Indonesia. This paper describes the current status of tourism in Indonesia, identifies environment and biodiversity vulnerability in tourism destinations, and explores the challenges of the biological field in supporting ecotourism development. This review found that tourism, especially nature-based and ecotourism, has grown significantly in Indonesia, and the contribution of Indonesian biodiversity has been identified as significant. Threats to biodiversity, however, are found in nature-based tourism destinations. Issues related to pollution, exotic plant species invasion, habitat changes and degradation, habitat loss, and wildlife disturbance are widely reported, indicating the importance of such issues in destination management. Pollution is found in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Water pollution is an important issue among lakes and rivers. To date, there are few assessments of the impact of tourism activities on aquatic ecosystems, resulting in the management of aquatic ecosystems facing numerous difficulties. These studies identify the invasive plants found, which become a crucial problem in many nature-based tourism destinations, and which significantly contribute to a reduction in the existence of many flora-fauna in a wild habitat. Habitat changes and degradation are mostly influenced by tourism infrastructure development. Massive infrastructure development often leads to habitat loss, which is a crucial step in local biodiversity extinction. Increasing and uncontrolled visitor behaviors influence animal behavior changes, which is recognized as a dangerous phenomenon affecting animal survival in the future. An agenda for future integrative biological research is needed to improve resource management, to increase sustainability and the

  15. Field observed relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning during secondary succession in a tropical lowland rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Wensheng; Zang, Runguo; Ding, Yi

    2014-02-01

    The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is one of the most concerned topics in ecology. However, most of the studies have been conducted in controlled experiments in grasslands, few observational field studies have been carried out in forests. In this paper, we report variations of species diversity, functional diversity and aboveground biomass (AGB) for woody plants (trees and shrubs) along a chronosequence of four successional stages (18-year-old fallow, 30-year-old fallow, 60-year-old fallow, and old-growth forest) in a tropical lowland rainforest recovered after shifting cultivation on Hainan Island, China. Fifty randomly selected sample plots of 20 m × 20 m were investigated in each of the four successional stages. Four functional traits (specific leaf area, wood density, maximum species height and leaf dry matter content) were measured for each woody plants species and the relationships between species/functional diversity and AGB during secondary succession were explored. The results showed that both plant diversity and AGB recovered gradually with the secondary succession. AGB was positively correlated with both species and functional diversity in each stage of succession. Consistent with many controlled experimental results in grasslands, our observational field study confirms that ecosystem functioning is closely related to biodiversity during secondary succession in species rich tropical forests.

  16. Marine biodiversity of an Eastern Tropical Pacific oceanic island, Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco (also known as Cocos Island is an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; it is part of the largest national park of Costa Rica and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The island has been visited since the 16th Century due to its abundance of freshwater and wood. Marine biodiversity studies of the island started in the late 19th Century, with an intense period of research in the 1930’s, and again from the mid 1990’s to the present. The information is scattered and, in some cases, in old publications that are difficult to access. Here I have compiled published records of the marine organisms of the island. At least 1688 species are recorded, with the gastropods (383 species, bony fishes (354 spp. and crustaceans (at least 263 spp. being the most species-rich groups; 45 species are endemic to Isla del Coco National Park (2.7% of the total. The number of species per kilometer of coastline and by square kilometer of seabed shallower than 200m deep are the highest recorded in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Although the marine biodiversity of Isla del Coco is relatively well known, there are regions that need more exploration, for example, the south side, the pelagic environments, and deeper waters. Also, several groups of organisms, such as the flatworms, nematodes, nemerteans, and gelatinous zooplankton, have been observed around the Island but have been poorly studied or not at all.

  17. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Zurita, Jesús; Cardoso, Anabela; Coronado, Indiana; De la Cadena, Gissela; Jurado-Rivera, José A; Maes, Jean-Michel; Montelongo, Tinguaro; Nguyen, Dinh Thi; Papadopoulou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this attempt to characterise biodiversity has been incorporating DNA-based characters and molecular taxonomy tools to achieve faster and more efficient species delimitation and identification, even in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. In this assay we advocate for a broad understanding of Biodiversity as the inventory of species in a given environment, but also the diversity of their interactions, with both aspects being attainable using molecular markers and phylogenetic approaches. We exemplify the suitability and utility of this framework for large-scale biodiversity assessment with the results of our ongoing projects trying to characterise the communities of leaf beetles and their host plants in several tropical setups. Moreover, we propose that approaches similar to ours, establishing the inventories of two ecologically inter-related and species-rich groups of organisms, such as insect herbivores and their angiosperm host-plants, can serve as the foundational stone to anchor a comprehensive assessment of diversity, also in tropical environments, by subsequent addition of trophic levels.

  18. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Zurita, Jesús; Cardoso, Anabela; Coronado, Indiana; De la Cadena, Gissela; Jurado-Rivera, José A.; Maes, Jean-Michel; Montelongo, Tinguaro; Nguyen, Dinh Thi; Papadopoulou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this attempt to characterise biodiversity has been incorporating DNA-based characters and molecular taxonomy tools to achieve faster and more efficient species delimitation and identification, even in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. In this assay we advocate for a broad understanding of Biodiversity as the inventory of species in a given environment, but also the diversity of their interactions, with both aspects being attainable using molecular markers and phylogenetic approaches. We exemplify the suitability and utility of this framework for large-scale biodiversity assessment with the results of our ongoing projects trying to characterise the communities of leaf beetles and their host plants in several tropical setups. Moreover, we propose that approaches similar to ours, establishing the inventories of two ecologically inter-related and species-rich groups of organisms, such as insect herbivores and their angiosperm host-plants, can serve as the foundational stone to anchor a comprehensive assessment of diversity, also in tropical environments, by subsequent addition of trophic levels. PMID:27408583

  19. Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes M. C. Bustamante; Iris Roitman; T. Mitchell Aide; Ane Alencar; Liana O. Anderson; Luiz Aragao; Gregory P. Asner; Jos Barlow; Erika Berenguer; Jeffrey Chambers; Marcos H. Costa; Thierry Fanin; Laerte G. Ferreira; Joice Ferreira; Michael Keller; William E. Magnusson; Lucia Morales-Barquero; Douglas Morton; Jean P. H. B. Ometto; Michael Palace; Carlos A. Peres; Divino Silverio; Susan Trumbore; Ima C. G. Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks...

  20. Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

    2012-04-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

  1. Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

  2. Use of ancient sedimentary DNA as a novel conservation tool for high-altitude tropical biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Sanne; McGlynn, Gayle; Epp, Laura S; Taylor, David; Pimentel, Manuel; Gizaw, Abel; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Brochmann, Christian; Popp, Magnus

    2014-04-01

    Conservation of biodiversity may in the future increasingly depend upon the availability of scientific information to set suitable restoration targets. In traditional paleoecology, sediment-based pollen provides a means to define preanthropogenic impact conditions, but problems in establishing the exact provenance and ecologically meaningful levels of taxonomic resolution of the evidence are limiting. We explored the extent to which the use of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) may complement pollen data in reconstructing past alpine environments in the tropics. We constructed a record of afro-alpine plants retrieved from DNA preserved in sediment cores from 2 volcanic crater sites in the Albertine Rift, eastern Africa. The record extended well beyond the onset of substantial anthropogenic effects on tropical mountains. To ensure high-quality taxonomic inference from the sedaDNA sequences, we built an extensive DNA reference library covering the majority of the afro-alpine flora, by sequencing DNA from taxonomically verified specimens. Comparisons with pollen records from the same sediment cores showed that plant diversity recovered with sedaDNA improved vegetation reconstructions based on pollen records by revealing both additional taxa and providing increased taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, combining the 2 measures assisted in distinguishing vegetation change at different geographic scales; sedaDNA almost exclusively reflects local vegetation, whereas pollen can potentially originate from a wide area that in highlands in particular can span several ecozones. Our results suggest that sedaDNA may provide information on restoration targets and the nature and magnitude of human-induced environmental changes, including in high conservation priority, biodiversity hotspots, where understanding of preanthropogenic impact (or reference) conditions is highly limited. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward C. Netherlands

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P < 0.01 in the prevalence of parasitaemia was found across species, those semi-aquatic species demonstrating the highest, followed by semi-terrestrial frog species. None of those species described as purely terrestrial and aquatic were infected. Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively. Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity.

  4. The invasive Red-vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer outcompetes native birds in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Thibault

    Full Text Available Invasive alien species are a major cause of biodiversity loss globally, but especially on islands where high species richness and levels of endemism accentuate their impacts. The Red vented bulbul (Pycnonotus cafer, a tropical passerine bird that has been introduced widely across locations of high conservation value, is considered an extreme pest. It is currently expanding its range in New Caledonia, one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. Decisive recommendations on management strategies are required urgently to inform local managers and policy makers, but they should be based on quantitative local evidence, not just on expert opinion. The Red-vented bulbul is widely blamed for its impacts on biodiversity, especially through competition. We used data from 2,472 point counts to explore the abundance relationships between the Red-vented bulbul and 14 other species of bird. Our results revealed a negative relationship between the occurrence of the bulbul and the mean abundance of nine species, all native (or endemic, n = 3 to the New Caledonia archipelago. In contrast, the abundance of other introduced species such as Acridotheres tristis (Common myna, Passer domesticus (House sparrow and Spilopelia chinensis (Spotted dove were not affected by the Red-vented bulbul. Moreover, temporal trends in the abundance of impacted species suggest that the Red-vented bulbul may cause niche contractions rather than mortality for native species in man-modified habitats. Monitoring and control of the Red-vented bulbul is recommended to prevent on-going impacts on native bird communities throughout New Caledonia, and its impact on native bird communities elsewhere should be quantified.

  5. Rapid Diversification and Time Explain Amphibian Richness at Different Scales in the Tropical Andes, Earth's Most Biodiverse Hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutter, Carl R; Lambert, Shea M; Wiens, John J

    2017-12-01

    The Tropical Andes make up Earth's most species-rich biodiversity hotspot for both animals and plants. Nevertheless, the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying this extraordinary richness remain uncertain. Here, we examine the processes that generate high richness in the Tropical Andes relative to other regions in South America and across different elevations within the Andes, using frogs as a model system. We combine distributional data, a newly generated time-calibrated phylogeny for 2,318 frog species, and phylogenetic comparative methods to test the relative importance of diversification rates and colonization times for explaining Andean diversity at different scales. At larger scales (among regions and families), we find that faster diversification rates in Andean clades most likely explain high Andean richness. In contrast, at smaller temporal and spatial scales (within family-level clades within the Andes), diversification rates rarely explain richness patterns. Instead, we show that colonization times are important for shaping elevational richness patterns within the Andes, with more species found in habitats colonized earlier. We suggest that these scale-dependent patterns might apply to many other richness gradients. Recognition of this scale dependence may help to reconcile conflicting results among studies of richness patterns across habitats, regions, and organisms.

  6. Biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available four times the size of Spain) (IUCN-WCPA undated). The eco-regions under the best protection tend to be the savannah habitats, particularly those of Eastern and Southern Africa (Burgess and others 2005). Charismatic animals, such as large mammals..., and on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Global trade has intensified the demand for animal products, tropical timbers, cash crops and seafood. At the same time, global connectedness has brought new problems, such as global climate change, IAS, the spread...

  7. Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Rubén G; Mokany, Karel; Guisan, Antoine

    2017-08-01

    Improving biodiversity predictions is essential if we are to meet the challenges posed by global change. As knowledge is key to feed models, we need to evaluate how debated theory can affect models. An important ongoing debate is whether environmental constraints limit the number of species that can coexist in a community (saturation), with recent findings suggesting that species richness in many communities might be unsaturated. Here, we propose that biodiversity models could address this issue by accounting for a duality: considering communities as unsaturated but where species composition is constrained by different scale-dependent biodiversity drivers. We identify a variety of promising advances for incorporating this duality into commonly applied biodiversity modelling approaches and improving their spatial predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Forests and drugs: coca-driven deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávalos, Liliana M; Bejarano, Adriana C; Hall, Mark A; Correa, H Leonardo; Corthals, Angelique; Espejo, Oscar J

    2011-02-15

    Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.

  9. Marine biodiversity of an Eastern Tropical Pacific oceanic island, Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco (also known as Cocos Island is an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; it is part of the largest national park of Costa Rica and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The island has been visited since the 16th Century due to its abundance of freshwater and wood. Marine biodiversity studies of the island started in the late 19th Century, with an intense period of research in the 1930’s, and again from the mid 1990’s to the present. The information is scattered and, in some cases, in old publications that are difficult to access. Here I have compiled published records of the marine organisms of the island. At least 1688 species are recorded, with the gastropods (383 species, bony fishes (354 spp. and crustaceans (at least 263 spp. being the most species-rich groups; 45 species are endemic to Isla del Coco National Park (2.7% of the total. The number of species per kilometer of coastline and by square kilometer of seabed shallower than 200m deep are the highest recorded in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Although the marine biodiversity of Isla del Coco is relatively well known, there are regions that need more exploration, for example, the south side, the pelagic environments, and deeper waters. Also, several groups of organisms, such as the flatworms, nematodes, nemerteans, and gelatinous zooplankton, have been observed around the Island but have been poorly studied or not at all.La Isla del Coco es una isla oceánica en el Pacífico Tropical Oriental; es parte del Parque Nacional más grande de Costa Rica y es un sitio de Patrimonio Mundial. La isla ha sido visitada desde el Siglo XVI por su abundancia de agua dulce y árboles. Estudios de biodiversidad marina de la isla empezaron a finales del Siglo XIX, con un intenso período de investigación en la década de 1930, y de nuevo desde mediados de la década de 1990 al presente. La información sobre organismos marinos se encuentra dispersa y en algunos casos en publicaciones

  10. Reconciling timber extraction with biodiversity conservation in tropical forests using reduced-impact logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicknell, Jake E; Struebig, Matthew J; Davies, Zoe G; Baraloto, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Over 20% of the world's tropical forests have been selectively logged, and large expanses are allocated for future timber extraction. Reduced-impact logging (RIL) is being promoted as best practice forestry that increases sustainability and lowers CO2 emissions from logging, by reducing collateral damage associated with timber extraction. RIL is also expected to minimize the impacts of selective logging on biodiversity, although this is yet to be thoroughly tested. We undertake the most comprehensive study to date to investigate the biodiversity impacts of RIL across multiple taxonomic groups. We quantified birds, bats and large mammal assemblage structures, using a before-after control-impact (BACI) design across 20 sample sites over a 5-year period. Faunal surveys utilized point counts, mist nets and line transects and yielded >250 species. We examined assemblage responses to logging, as well as partitions of feeding guild and strata (understorey vs. canopy), and then tested for relationships with logging intensity to assess the primary determinants of community composition. Community analysis revealed little effect of RIL on overall assemblages, as structure and composition were similar before and after logging, and between logging and control sites. Variation in bird assemblages was explained by natural rates of change over time, and not logging intensity. However, when partitioned by feeding guild and strata, the frugivorous and canopy bird ensembles changed as a result of RIL, although the latter was also associated with change over time. Bats exhibited variable changes post-logging that were not related to logging, whereas large mammals showed no change at all. Indicator species analysis and correlations with logging intensities revealed that some species exhibited idiosyncratic responses to RIL, whilst abundance change of most others was associated with time. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the relatively benign effect of reduced

  11. Do riparian reserves support dung beetle biodiversity and ecosystem services in oil palm-dominated tropical landscapes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Claudia L; Slade, Eleanor M; Mann, Darren J; Lewis, Owen T

    2014-04-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are major threats to global biodiversity, ecological functions, and ecosystem services. The rapid expansion of oil palm in forested tropical landscapes is of particular concern given their high biodiversity. Identifying management approaches that maintain native species and associated ecological processes within oil palm plantations is therefore a priority. Riparian reserves are strips of forest retained alongside rivers in cultivated areas, primarily for their positive hydrological impact. However, they can also support a range of forest-dependent species or ecosystem services. We surveyed communities of dung beetles and measured dung removal activity in an oil palm-dominated landscape in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The species richness, diversity, and functional group richness of dung beetles in riparian reserves were significantly higher than in oil palm, but lower than in adjacent logged forests. The community composition of the riparian reserves was more similar to logged forest than oil palm. Despite the pronounced differences in biodiversity, we did not find significant differences in dung removal rates among land uses. We also found no evidence that riparian reserves enhance dung removal rates within surrounding oil palm. These results contrast previous studies showing positive relationships between dung beetle species richness and dung removal in tropical forests. We found weak but significant positive relationships between riparian reserve width and dung beetle diversity, and between reserve vegetation complexity and dung beetle abundance, suggesting that these features may increase the conservation value of riparian reserves. Synthesis and applications: The similarity between riparian reserves and logged forest demonstrates that retaining riparian reserves increases biodiversity within oil palm landscapes. However, the lack of correlation between dung beetle community characteristics and dung removal highlights the

  12. Do riparian reserves support dung beetle biodiversity and ecosystem services in oil palm-dominated tropical landscapes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Claudia L; Slade, Eleanor M; Mann, Darren J; Lewis, Owen T

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are major threats to global biodiversity, ecological functions, and ecosystem services. The rapid expansion of oil palm in forested tropical landscapes is of particular concern given their high biodiversity. Identifying management approaches that maintain native species and associated ecological processes within oil palm plantations is therefore a priority. Riparian reserves are strips of forest retained alongside rivers in cultivated areas, primarily for their positive hydrological impact. However, they can also support a range of forest-dependent species or ecosystem services. We surveyed communities of dung beetles and measured dung removal activity in an oil palm-dominated landscape in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The species richness, diversity, and functional group richness of dung beetles in riparian reserves were significantly higher than in oil palm, but lower than in adjacent logged forests. The community composition of the riparian reserves was more similar to logged forest than oil palm. Despite the pronounced differences in biodiversity, we did not find significant differences in dung removal rates among land uses. We also found no evidence that riparian reserves enhance dung removal rates within surrounding oil palm. These results contrast previous studies showing positive relationships between dung beetle species richness and dung removal in tropical forests. We found weak but significant positive relationships between riparian reserve width and dung beetle diversity, and between reserve vegetation complexity and dung beetle abundance, suggesting that these features may increase the conservation value of riparian reserves. Synthesis and applications: The similarity between riparian reserves and logged forest demonstrates that retaining riparian reserves increases biodiversity within oil palm landscapes. However, the lack of correlation between dung beetle community characteristics and dung removal highlights the

  13. Spatial patterns of degraded tropical forest and biodiversity restoration over 70-years of succession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet E. Nichol

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Landscape metrics have often been used to analyse the spatial dynamics of habitat fragmentation accompanying forest loss. However, there are few studies of the spatial dynamics of natural forest succession, especially over periods longer than the operational period of imaging satellites. This study applies spatial metrics to understand the spatial processes of a 70-year tropical secondary forest succession in Hong Kong, since World War 2. The highest rate of forest regeneration at 11% a year from 1989 to 2001 occurred when the landscape achieved greatest habitat diversity and juxtapositioning of habitat patches. This rapid regeneration occurred by infilling from remnant forest in adjacent valleys rather than by an advance along a broad forest front, and led to simplification of the landscape and declining habitat diversity. It was also accompanied by declines in species richness and abundance in regenerated forest patches. Thus both habitat and woody plant species diversity show a humped trend over the successional period as disconnected forest patches amalgamate, and shade-intolerant pioneers are shaded out by taller pioneers. From this point onwards, the birds of mixed habitats including bulbuls and hwamei known to disperse seed in the study area, may become less effective as forest patches consolidate, and only a few forest mammals remain. The observed improved connectivity within forest patches and reduced edge disturbances accompanying landscape simplification provide better conditions for dispersion within forest of light-intolerant climax species from the oldest, species-rich valley sites to the newly regenerated areas. However, in addition to the loss of forest dispersal agents, other natural dispersal agents such as gravity, flash floods and slope wash involving downward processes may be ineffective, as forest has regenerated upwards to higher elevations. Progression to a mature, biodiverse and stable forest ecosystem may depend on

  14. Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, H; Inchausti, P

    2012-01-01

    We formulate a microscopic (individual-based and spatially explicit) ecological model to assess whether key patterns of community structure, species-packing and the spatial distribution of species are robust to relaxing the mean-field approximation made in classical ecological models. In this model of community dynamics species compete both locally in physical space and along a niche axis and it includes just two free parameters, σ, controlling the extent of competition in niche space, and t, the simulation time. This minimalistic model (1) reproduces with considerable accuracy the dynamic sequence of relative species abundances, biodiversity indices and species–area relationships that are empirically found in censuses of trees in a well-studied tropical forest; (2) shows that the clumpy pattern of niches leading to long-lasting species coexistence obtained by classical competition models is robust to relaxing the mean-field assumption. Nevertheless species that are clumped in niche space are simultaneously spatially segregated

  15. Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C. A.

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

  16. Long-term in situ persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Xue, Alexander T; Moreno-Letelier, Alejandra; Jorgensen, Tove H; Alvarez, Nadir; Piñero, Daniel; Emerson, Brent C

    2017-12-11

    Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (i) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation and (ii) the mountain areas may have allowed long-term population persistence during global climate fluctuations. These two phenomena have been studied using either species occurrence data or estimating species divergence times. However, only few studies have used intraspecific genetic data to analyse the mechanisms by which endemism may emerge at the microevolutionary scale. Here, we use landscape analysis of genomic SNP data sampled from two high-elevation plant species from an archipelago of tropical sky islands (the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) to test for population genetic differentiation, synchronous demographic changes and habitat persistence. We show that genetic differentiation can be explained by the degree of glacial habitat connectivity among mountains and that mountains have facilitated the persistence of populations throughout glacial/interglacial cycles. Our results support the ongoing role of tropical mountains as cradles for biodiversity by uncovering cryptic differentiation and limits to gene flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Can community members identify tropical tree species for REDD+ carbon and biodiversity measurements?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Mingxu; Brofeldt, Søren; Li, Qiaohong

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation is a required co-benefit of REDD+. Biodiversity monitoring is therefore needed, yet in most areas it will be constrained by limitations in the available human professional and financial resources. REDD+ programs that use forest plots for biomass monitoring may be able...... to trained botanists, at one third the cost. Without access to herbaria, identification guides or the Internet, community members could provide the ethno-taxonomical names for 95% of 1071 trees in 60 vegetation plots. Moreover, we show that the community-led survey spent 89% of the expenses at village level...

  18. Limited sampling hampers “big data” estimation of species richness in a tropical biodiversity hotspot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engemann, Kristine; Enquist, Brian J.; Sandel, Brody Steven

    2015-01-01

    in Ecuador, one of the most species-rich and climatically heterogeneous biodiversity hotspots. Species richness estimates were calculated based on 205,735 georeferenced specimens of 15,788 species using the Margalef diversity index, the Chao estimator, the second-order Jackknife and Bootstrapping resampling...

  19. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands: Implications for the management of plant biodiversity along differential environmental gradient in the Yellow River of Henan Province in the spring.

  20. Environmental sustainability model and biodiversity preservation in Central Rhodopes

    OpenAIRE

    Zlatka Grigorova; Ekaterina Arabska

    2013-01-01

    The paper examines the significance, opportunities and ways of biodiversity preservation and sustainable use of natural resources in the central region of the mountain of Rhodopes in Bulgaria. The proposed integrated model of recommendations embraces the following issues: preservation of rare, in danger of extinction and protected plant and animal species and their habitats; implementation of approved environmentally friendly practices in plant growing and animal husbandry; sustainable use...

  1. Biodiversity and functional regeneration during secondary succession in a tropical dry forest: from microorganisms to mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    do Espírito Santo, M. M.; Neves, F. S.; Valério, H. M.; Leite, L. O.; Falcão, L. A.; Borges, M.; Beirão, M.; Reis, R., Jr.; Berbara, R.; Nunes, Y. R.; Silva, A.; Silva, L. F.; Siqueira, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we aimed to determine the changes on soil traits, forest structure and species richness and composition of multiple groups of organisms along secondary succession in a tropical dry forest (TDF) in southeastern Brazil. We defined three successional stages based in forest vertical and horizontal structure and age: early (18-25 years), intermediate (50-60 years) and late (no records of clearing). Five plots of 50 x 20 m were established per stage, and the following groups were sampled using specific techniques: rhizobacteria, mycorrhiza, trees and lianas, butterflies, ants, dung beetles, mosquitoes (Culicidae), birds and bats. We also determined soil chemical and physical characteristics and forest structure (tree height, density and basal area). Soil fertility increased along the successional gradient, and the same pattern was observed for all the forest structure variables. However, species richness and composition showed mixed results depending on the organism group. Three groups usually considered as good bioindicators of habitat quality did not differ in species richness and composition between stages: butterflies, ants and dung beetles. On the other hand, rizhobacteria and mycorrhiza differed both in species richness and composition between stages and may be more sensitive to changes in environmental conditions in TDFs. The other five groups differed either in species richness or composition between one or two pairs of successional stages. Although changes in abiotic conditions and forest structure match the predictions of classical successional models, the response of each group of organism is idiosyncratic in terms of diversity and ecological function, as a consequence of specific resource requirements and life-history traits. In general, diversity increased and functional groups changed mostly from early to intermediate-late stages, strengthening the importance of secondary forests to the maintenance of ecosystem integrity of TDFs.

  2. Can Community Members Identify Tropical Tree Species for REDD+ Carbon and Biodiversity Measurements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxu Zhao

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation is a required co-benefit of REDD+. Biodiversity monitoring is therefore needed, yet in most areas it will be constrained by limitations in the available human professional and financial resources. REDD+ programs that use forest plots for biomass monitoring may be able to take advantage of the same data for detecting changes in the tree diversity, using the richness and abundance of canopy trees as a proxy for biodiversity. If local community members are already assessing the above-ground biomass in a representative network of forest vegetation plots, it may require minimal further effort to collect data on the diversity of trees. We compare community members and trained scientists' data on tree diversity in permanent vegetation plots in montane forest in Yunnan, China. We show that local community members here can collect tree diversity data of comparable quality to trained botanists, at one third the cost. Without access to herbaria, identification guides or the Internet, community members could provide the ethno-taxonomical names for 95% of 1071 trees in 60 vegetation plots. Moreover, we show that the community-led survey spent 89% of the expenses at village level as opposed to 23% of funds in the monitoring by botanists. In participatory REDD+ programs in areas where community members demonstrate great knowledge of forest trees, community-based collection of tree diversity data can be a cost-effective approach for obtaining tree diversity information.

  3. The relationship between tree biodiversity and biomass dynamics changes with tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R; Uriarte, María; Boukili, Vanessa K; Erickson, David L; John Kress, W; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-09-01

    Theory predicts shifts in the magnitude and direction of biodiversity effects on ecosystem function (BEF) over succession, but this theory remains largely untested. We studied the relationship between aboveground tree biomass dynamics (Δbiomass) and multiple dimensions of biodiversity over 8-16 years in eight successional rainforests. We tested whether successional changes in diversity-Δbiomass correlations reflect predictions of niche theories. Diversity-Δbiomass correlations were positive early but weak later in succession, suggesting saturation of niche space with increasing diversity. Early in succession, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity in two leaf traits exhibited the strongest positive correlations with Δbiomass, indicating complementarity or positive selection effects. In mid-successional stands, high biodiversity was associated with greater mortality-driven biomass loss, i.e. negative selection effects, suggesting successional niche trade-offs and loss of fast-growing pioneer species. Our results demonstrate that BEF relationships are dynamic across succession, thus successional context is essential to understanding BEF in a given system. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  4. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages. PMID:26731271

  5. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julieta Benítez-Malvido

    Full Text Available Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages.

  6. Long-term insitu persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Xue, Alexander T.; Moreno-Letelier, Alejandra

    2018-01-01

    Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (1) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation...

  7. The value of biodiversity for the functioning of tropical forests: insurance effects during the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Sean L; O'Brien, Michael J; Philipson, Christopher D; Saner, Philippe; Tanadini, Matteo; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; Godfray, H Charles J; Godoong, Elia; Nilus, Reuben; Ong, Robert C; Schmid, Bernhard; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L; Snoep, Martijn; Tangki, Hamzah; Tay, John; Ulok, Philip; Wai, Yap Sau; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Hector, Andy

    2016-12-14

    One of the main environmental threats in the tropics is selective logging, which has degraded large areas of forest. In southeast Asia, enrichment planting with seedlings of the dominant group of dipterocarp tree species aims to accelerate restoration of forest structure and functioning. The role of tree diversity in forest restoration is still unclear, but the 'insurance hypothesis' predicts that in temporally and spatially varying environments planting mixtures may stabilize functioning owing to differences in species traits and ecologies. To test for potential insurance effects, we analyse the patterns of seedling mortality and growth in monoculture and mixture plots over the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment. Our results reveal the species differences required for potential insurance effects including a trade-off in which species with denser wood have lower growth rates but higher survival. This trade-off was consistent over time during the first decade, but growth and mortality varied spatially across our 500 ha experiment with species responding to changing conditions in different ways. Overall, average survival rates were extreme in monocultures than mixtures consistent with a potential insurance effect in which monocultures of poorly surviving species risk recruitment failure, whereas monocultures of species with high survival have rates of self-thinning that are potentially wasteful when seedling stocks are limited. Longer-term monitoring as species interactions strengthen will be needed to more comprehensively test to what degree mixtures of species spread risk and use limited seedling stocks more efficiently to increase diversity and restore ecosystem structure and functioning. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilia Valli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery.

  9. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valli, Marilia; Pivatto, Marcos; Danuello, Amanda; Castro-Gamboa, Ian; Silva, Dulce Helena Siqueira; Cavalheiro, Alberto Jose; Araujo, Angela Regina; Furlan, Maysa; Lopes, Marcia Nasser; Bolzani, Vanderlan da Silva

    2012-01-01

    The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery. (author)

  10. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valli, Marilia; Pivatto, Marcos; Danuello, Amanda; Castro-Gamboa, Ian; Silva, Dulce Helena Siqueira; Cavalheiro, Alberto Jose; Araujo, Angela Regina; Furlan, Maysa; Lopes, Marcia Nasser; Bolzani, Vanderlan da Silva, E-mail: bolzaniv@iq.unesp.br [UNESP, Araraquara, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica. Dept. de Quimica Organica

    2012-07-01

    The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery. (author)

  11. Simulating Land Use Policies Targeted to Protect Biodiversity with the CLUE-Scanner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Lesschen, J.P.; Koomen, E.; Perez-Soba, M.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents an integrated modelling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity. A modelling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the

  12. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  13. Tradeoffs between income, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning during tropical rainforest conversion and agroforestry intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Kessler, Michael; Barkmann, Jan; Bos, Merijn M; Buchori, Damayanti; Erasmi, Stefan; Faust, Heiko; Gerold, Gerhard; Glenk, Klaus; Gradstein, S Robbert; Guhardja, Edi; Harteveld, Marieke; Hertel, Dietrich; Höhn, Patrick; Kappas, Martin; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Maertens, Miet; Marggraf, Rainer; Migge-Kleian, Sonja; Mogea, Johanis; Pitopang, Ramadhaniel; Schaefer, Matthias; Schwarze, Stefan; Sporn, Simone G; Steingrebe, Andrea; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S; Tjitrosoemito, Soekisman; Twele, André; Weber, Robert; Woltmann, Lars; Zeller, Manfred; Tscharntke, Teja

    2007-03-20

    Losses of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning due to rainforest destruction and agricultural intensification are prime concerns for science and society alike. Potentially, ecosystems show nonlinear responses to land-use intensification that would open management options with limited ecological losses but satisfying economic gains. However, multidisciplinary studies to quantify ecological losses and socioeconomic tradeoffs under different management options are rare. Here, we evaluate opposing land use strategies in cacao agroforestry in Sulawesi, Indonesia, by using data on species richness of nine plant and animal taxa, six related ecosystem functions, and on socioeconomic drivers of agroforestry expansion. Expansion of cacao cultivation by 230% in the last two decades was triggered not only by economic market mechanisms, but also by rarely considered cultural factors. Transformation from near-primary forest to agroforestry had little effect on overall species richness, but reduced plant biomass and carbon storage by approximately 75% and species richness of forest-using species by approximately 60%. In contrast, increased land use intensity in cacao agroforestry, coupled with a reduction in shade tree cover from 80% to 40%, caused only minor quantitative changes in biodiversity and maintained high levels of ecosystem functioning while doubling farmers' net income. However, unshaded systems further increased income by approximately 40%, implying that current economic incentives and cultural preferences for new intensification practices put shaded systems at risk. We conclude that low-shade agroforestry provides the best available compromise between economic forces and ecological needs. Certification schemes for shade-grown crops may provide a market-based mechanism to slow down current intensification trends.

  14. Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

    2006-01-01

    Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

  15. Modelling avian biodiversity using raw, unclassified satellite imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Louis, Véronique; Pidgeon, Anna M; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Radeloff, Volker C; Clayton, Murray K; Locke, Brian A; Bash, Dallas; Hostert, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Applications of remote sensing for biodiversity conservation typically rely on image classifications that do not capture variability within coarse land cover classes. Here, we compare two measures derived from unclassified remotely sensed data, a measure of habitat heterogeneity and a measure of habitat composition, for explaining bird species richness and the spatial distribution of 10 species in a semi-arid landscape of New Mexico. We surveyed bird abundance from 1996 to 1998 at 42 plots located in the McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Army Reserve. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values of two May 1997 Landsat scenes were the basis for among-pixel habitat heterogeneity (image texture), and we used the raw imagery to decompose each pixel into different habitat components (spectral mixture analysis). We used model averaging to relate measures of avian biodiversity to measures of image texture and spectral mixture analysis fractions. Measures of habitat heterogeneity, particularly angular second moment and standard deviation, provide higher explanatory power for bird species richness and the abundance of most species than measures of habitat composition. Using image texture, alone or in combination with other classified imagery-based approaches, for monitoring statuses and trends in biological diversity can greatly improve conservation efforts and habitat management.

  16. SRTM-DEM AND LANDSAT ETM+ DATA FOR MAPPING TROPICAL DRY FOREST COVER AND BIODIVERSITY ASSESSMENT IN NICARAGUA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett G. Dickson

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but hasreceived far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reducethe extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentationmay further endanger arboreal mammals that play principal role in the dispersal of large seeded fruits, plantcommunity assembly and diversity in these systems. Data on the spatial arrangement and extent of dryforest and other land cover types is greatly needed to enhance studies of forest fragmentation effects onanimal populations. To address this issue, we compared two Random Forest decision tree models forland cover classification in a Nicaraguan tropical dry forest landscape with and without the use of terrainvariables derived from Space Shuttle Radar and Topography Mission digital elevation data (SRTM-DEM.Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+ bands and vegetation indices were the principle source ofspectral variables used. Overall classification accuracy for nine land cover types improved from 82.4% to87.4% once terrain and spectral predictor variables were combined. Error matrix comparisons showedthat class accuracy was significantly greater (z = 2.57, p-value < 0.05 with the inclusion of terrain variables(e.g., slope, elevation and topographic wetness index in decision tree models. Variable importance metricsindicated that a corrected Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIc and terrain variables improveddiscrimination of forest successional types and wetlands in the study area. Results from this study demonstratethe capability of terrain variables to enhance land cover classification and habitat mapping useful tobiodiversity assessment in tropical dry forest.

  17. Evolutionary persistence in Gunnera and the contribution of southern plant groups to the tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velásquez-Puentes, Francisco J.; Hinojosa, Luis Felipe; Schwartz, Thomas; Oxelman, Bengt; Pfeil, Bernard; Arroyo, Mary T.K.; Wanntorp, Livia; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have demonstrated the contribution of northern immigrants to the flora of the tropical Andes—the world’s richest and most diverse biodiversity hotspot. However, much less is known about the biogeographic history and diversification of Andean groups with southern origins, although it has been suggested that northern and southern groups have contributed roughly equally to the high Andean (i.e., páramo) flora. Here we infer the evolutionary history of the southern hemisphere plant genus Gunnera, a lineage with a rich fossil history and an important ecological role as an early colonising species characteristic of wet, montane environments. Our results show striking contrasts in species diversification, where some species may have persisted for some 90 million years, and whereas others date to less than 2 Ma since origination. The outstanding longevity of the group is likely linked to a high degree of niche conservatism across its highly disjunct range, whereby Gunnera tracks damp and boggy soils in cool habitats. Colonisation of the northern Andes is related to Quaternary climate change, with subsequent rapid diversification appearing to be driven by their ability to take advantage of environmental opportunities. This study demonstrates the composite origin of a mega-diverse biota. PMID:29576938

  18. Lattice-work corridors for climate change: a conceptual framework for biodiversity conservation and social-ecological resilience in a tropical elevational gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Townsend

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid climate change poses complex challenges for conservation, especially in tropical developing countries where biodiversity is high while financial and technical resources are limited. The complexity is heightened by uncertainty in predicted effects, both for ecological systems and human communities that depend heavily on natural resource extraction and use. Effective conservation plans and measures must be inexpensive, fast-acting, and able to increase the resilience of both the ecosystem and the social-ecological system. We present conservation practitioners with a framework that strategically integrates climate change planning into connectivity measures for tropical mountain ecosystems in Costa Rica. We propose a strategy for doubling the amount of habitat currently protected in riparian corridors using measures that are relatively low cost and fast-acting, and will employ and expand human capital. We argue that habitat connectivity must be enhanced along latitudinal gradients, but also within the same elevational bands, via a lattice-work corridor system. This is needed to facilitate range shifts for mobile species and evolutionary adaptation for less mobile species. We think that conservation measures within the elevational bands must include conservation-friendly land uses that improve current and future human livelihoods under dynamic conditions. Key components include community involvement, habitat priority-setting, forest landscape restoration, and environmental services payments. Our approach is fundamentally adaptive in that the conservation measures employed are informed by on-the-ground successes and failures and modified accordingly, but are relatively low risk and fast-acting. Our proposal, if implemented, would satisfy tenets of climate-smart conservation, improve the resilience of human and ecological communities, and be a model for other locations facing similar challenges.

  19. An ecosystem services perspective for the oceanic eastern tropical Pacific: commercial fisheries, carbon storage, recreational fishing, and biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer Lynn Martin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The ocean provides ecosystem services (ES that support humanity. Traditional single-issue management largely failed to protect the full suite of ES. Ecosystem-based management (EBM promotes resilient social-ecological systems that provide ES. To implement EBM, an ES approach is useful: 1 characterize major ES provided (magnitude, geographic extent, monetary value, trends, and stakeholders, 2 identify trade-offs, 3 determine desired outcomes, and 4 manage anthropogenic activities accordingly. Here we apply the ES approach (steps 1-2 to an open ocean ecosystem, the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP, an area of 21 million km2 that includes waters of 12 nations and the oceanic commons, using 35 years (1975-2010 of fisheries and economic data, and 20 years (1986-2006 of ship-based survey data. We examined commercial fisheries, carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreational fishing as the major provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ES, respectively. Average catch value (using U.S. import prices for fish for the 10 most commercially fished species was $2.7 billion yr-1. The value of carbon export to the deep ocean was $12.9 billion yr-1 (using average European carbon market prices. For two fisheries-depleted dolphin populations, the potential value of rebuilding carbon stores was $1.6 million (cumulative; for exploited fish stocks it was also $1.6 million (an estimated reduction of 544,000 mt. Sport fishing expenditures totaled $1.2 billion yr-1, from studies of three popular destinations. These initial, conservative estimates do not represent a complete summary of ETP ES values. We produced species richness maps for cetaceans, seabirds, and ichthyoplankton, and a sightings density map for marine turtles. Over 1/3 of cetacean, seabird, and marine turtle species occur in the ETP, and diversity (or density hotspots are widespread. This study fills several gaps in the assessment of marine and coastal ES by focusing on an oceanic habitat

  20. Ecological theories and indicators in economic models of biodiversity loss and conservation: a critical review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  1. Ecological Theories and Indicators in Economic Models of Biodiversity Loss and Conservation: A Critical Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  2. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  3. Evolution of body size, vision, and biodiversity of coral-associated organisms: evidence from fossil crustaceans in cold-water coral and tropical coral ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klompmaker, Adiël A; Jakobsen, Sten L; Lauridsen, Bodil W

    2016-06-16

    Modern cold-water coral and tropical coral environments harbor a highly diverse and ecologically important macrofauna of crustaceans that face elevated extinction risks due to reef decline. The effect of environmental conditions acting on decapod crustaceans comparing these two habitats is poorly understood today and in deep time. Here, we compare the biodiversity, eye socket height as a proxy for eye size, and body size of decapods in fossil cold-water and tropical reefs that formed prior to human disturbance. We show that decapod biodiversity is higher in fossil tropical reefs from The Netherlands, Italy, and Spain compared to that of the exceptionally well-preserved Paleocene (Danian) cold-water reef/mound ecosystem from Faxe (Denmark), where decapod diversity is highest in a more heterogeneous, mixed bryozoan-coral habitat instead of in coral and bryozoan-dominated facies. The relatively low diversity at Faxe was not influenced substantially by the preceding Cretaceous/Paleogene extinction event that is not apparent in the standing diversity of decapods in our analyses, or by sampling, preservation, and/or a latitudinal diversity gradient. Instead, the lower availability of food and fewer hiding places for decapods may explain this low diversity. Furthermore, decapods from Faxe are larger than those from tropical waters for half of the comparisons, which may be caused by a lower number of predators, the delayed maturity, and the increased life span of crustaceans in deeper, colder waters. Finally, deep-water specimens of the benthic crab Caloxanthus from Faxe exhibit a larger eye socket size compared to congeneric specimens from tropical reefs, suggesting that dim light conditions favored the evolution of relatively large eyes. The results suggest a strong habitat control on the biodiversity of crustaceans in coral-associated environments and that the diversity difference between deep, cold-water reefs and tropical reefs evolved at least ~63 million years ago

  4. LBA-ECO LC-31 Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product provides the Fortran source code and input data for the Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model (SITE). SITE is a simplified point model of...

  5. LBA-ECO LC-31 Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product provides the Fortran source code and input data for the Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model (SITE). SITE is a simplified point model of vegetation...

  6. GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, J.H.; Kuiper, J.J.; Weijters, M.J.; Westerbeek, E.P.; Jeuken, M.H.J.L.; Bakkenes, M.; Alkemade, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Verhoeven, J.T.A.

    2015-01-01

    Biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems - rivers, lakes and wetlands - is undergoing rapid global decline. Major drivers are land use change, eutrophication, hydrological disturbance, climate change, overexploitation and invasive species. We developed a global model for assessing the dominant human

  7. GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, J.H.; Kuiper, J.J.; Weijters, M.J.; Westerbeek, E.P.; Jeuken, M.H.J.L.; Bakkenes, M.; Alkemade, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Verhoeven, J.T.A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems – rivers, lakes and wetlands – is undergoing rapid global decline. Major drivers are land use change, eutrophication, hydrological disturbance, climate change, overexploitation and invasive species. We developed a global model for assessing the dominant

  8. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  9. The importance of biodiversity and dominance for multiple ecosystem functions in a human-modified tropical landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Bongers, F.; Martinez-Ramos, M.; Poorter, L.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies suggest that biodiversity may be particularly important for ecosystem multifunctionality, because different species with different traits can contribute to different functions. Support, however, comes mostly from experimental studies conducted at small spatial scales in low-diversity

  10. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez-Zurita,Jesus; Cardoso,Anabela; Coronado,Indiana; De la Cadena,Gissela; Jurado-Rivera,José A.; Maes,Jean-Michel; Montelongo,Tinguaro; Nguyen,Dinh; Papadopoulou,Anna

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this at...

  11. Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

    2017-12-01

    The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

  12. SRTM-DEM and Landsat ETM+ data for mapping tropical dry forest cover and biodiversity assessment in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.E. Sesnie; S.E. Hagell; S.M. Otterstrom; C.L. Chambers; B.G. Dickson

    2008-01-01

    Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but has received far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reduce the extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentation may further endanger arboreal mammals that play...

  13. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Simon; Adger, W Neil

    2003-05-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis.

  14. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of land use change and agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Finegan, B.; Hormel, L.; Sibelet, N.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Waits, L.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non- traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we conduct a case study to examine the coupled social and ecological implications of LUCC and agricultural intensification in this region, with larger application to regions experiencing similar patterns. Guided by frameworks from both political and landscape ecology, we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which is likely to have a negative effect on biodiversity. To offset the effects of pineapple expansion on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  15. Models of Marine Fish Biodiversity: Assessing Predictors from Three Habitat Classification Schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Katherine L; Mellin, Camille; Caley, M Julian; Radford, Ben T; Meeuwig, Jessica J

    2016-01-01

    Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are

  16. The global palm oil sector must change to save biodiversity and improve food security in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhar, Badrul; Saadun, Norzanalia; Prideaux, Margi; Lindenmayer, David B

    2017-12-01

    Most palm oil currently available in global markets is sourced from certified large-scale plantations. Comparatively little is sourced from (typically uncertified) smallholders. We argue that sourcing sustainable palm oil should not be determined by commercial certification alone and that the certification process should be revisited. There are so-far unrecognized benefits of sourcing palm oil from smallholders that should be considered if genuine biodiversity conservation is to be a foundation of 'environmentally sustainable' palm oil production. Despite a lack of certification, smallholder production is often more biodiversity-friendly than certified production from large-scale plantations. Sourcing palm oil from smallholders also alleviates poverty among rural farmers, promoting better conservation outcomes. Yet, certification schemes - the current measure of 'sustainability' - are financially accessible only for large-scale plantations that operate as profit-driven monocultures. Industrial palm oil is expanding rapidly in regions with weak environmental laws and enforcement. This warrants the development of an alternative certification scheme for smallholders. Greater attention should be directed to deforestation-free palm oil production in smallholdings, where production is less likely to cause large scale biodiversity loss. These small-scale farmlands in which palm oil is mixed with other crops should be considered by retailers and consumers who are interested in promoting sustainable palm oil production. Simultaneously, plantation companies should be required to make their existing production landscapes more compatible with enhanced biodiversity conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010: the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th Anniversary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Nielsen-Muñoz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Central America is recognized as a mega diverse “hot-spot” and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world’s leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62% and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

  18. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010): the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th anniversary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Muñoz, Vanessa; Azofeifa-Mora, Ana Beatriz; Monge-Nájera, Julián

    2012-12-01

    Central America is recognized as a mega diverse "hot-spot" and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world's leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62%) and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

  19. The Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a long-term test of the role of tree diversity in restoring tropical forest structure and functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Andy; Philipson, Christopher; Saner, Philippe; Chamagne, Juliette; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; O'Brien, Michael; Snaddon, Jake L; Ulok, Philip; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Godfray, H Charles J

    2011-11-27

    Relatively, little is known about the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in forests, especially in the tropics. We describe the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a large-scale, long-term field study on the island of Borneo. The project aims at understanding the relationship between tree species diversity and the functioning of lowland dipterocarp rainforest during restoration following selective logging. The experiment is planned to run for several decades (from seed to adult tree), so here we focus on introducing the project and its experimental design and on assessing initial conditions and the potential for restoration of the structure and functioning of the study system, the Malua Forest Reserve. We estimate residual impacts 22 years after selective logging by comparison with an appropriate neighbouring area of primary forest in Danum Valley of similar conditions. There was no difference in the alpha or beta species diversity of transect plots in the two forest types, probably owing to the selective nature of the logging and potential effects of competitive release. However, despite equal total stem density, forest structure differed as expected with a deficit of large trees and a surfeit of saplings in selectively logged areas. These impacts on structure have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. In particular, above-ground biomass and carbon pools in selectively logged areas were only 60 per cent of those in the primary forest even after 22 years of recovery. Our results establish the initial conditions for the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment and confirm the potential to accelerate restoration by using enrichment planting of dipterocarps to overcome recruitment limitation. What role dipterocarp diversity plays in restoration only will become clear with long-term results.

  20. The Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a long-term test of the role of tree diversity in restoring tropical forest structure and functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Andy; Philipson, Christopher; Saner, Philippe; Chamagne, Juliette; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; O'Brien, Michael; Snaddon, Jake L.; Ulok, Philip; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2011-01-01

    Relatively, little is known about the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in forests, especially in the tropics. We describe the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a large-scale, long-term field study on the island of Borneo. The project aims at understanding the relationship between tree species diversity and the functioning of lowland dipterocarp rainforest during restoration following selective logging. The experiment is planned to run for several decades (from seed to adult tree), so here we focus on introducing the project and its experimental design and on assessing initial conditions and the potential for restoration of the structure and functioning of the study system, the Malua Forest Reserve. We estimate residual impacts 22 years after selective logging by comparison with an appropriate neighbouring area of primary forest in Danum Valley of similar conditions. There was no difference in the alpha or beta species diversity of transect plots in the two forest types, probably owing to the selective nature of the logging and potential effects of competitive release. However, despite equal total stem density, forest structure differed as expected with a deficit of large trees and a surfeit of saplings in selectively logged areas. These impacts on structure have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. In particular, above-ground biomass and carbon pools in selectively logged areas were only 60 per cent of those in the primary forest even after 22 years of recovery. Our results establish the initial conditions for the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment and confirm the potential to accelerate restoration by using enrichment planting of dipterocarps to overcome recruitment limitation. What role dipterocarp diversity plays in restoration only will become clear with long-term results. PMID:22006970

  1. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Briones-Salas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation. We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  2. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones-Salas, Miguel; Lavariega, Mario C; Moreno, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation). We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  3. Approaches to Bioeconomic Modelling in correlation with Consumer Model and Biodiversity Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipate Iudith

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analysed the characteristics of bio-economic models in agricultural systems and agro-biodiversity indicators. The classical bioeconomic models are used to analyze the human consumption of ecosystems for production. The analysis focuses on changes in a limited set of agrobiodiversity indicators that matter to human beings. In existing bioeconomic models incorporate ecological complexities and dynamics is limited. Although bioeconomic model provides useful methods to integrate economic values into environmental analyses, improved the dynamic interrelationships between natural processes and socio-economic systems is needed to allow an integrated assessment of multiple values. The overview will enable a more informed decision about whether and how bio-economic models/modeling can contribute to the development of integrated environmental decision support tools. The bio economic modeling it is important for evaluating the costs and benefits associated with environmental resource use.

  4. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) is often used as a model or investigating the linkages between disturbance intensity and biodiversity. However, the relationship between plant diversity and disturbance gradient makes it difficult to compare data from different researches and draw general models.

  6. Incentivizing biodiversity conservation in artisanal fishing communities through territorial user rights and business model innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelcich, Stefan; Donlan, C Josh

    2015-08-01

    Territorial user rights for fisheries are being promoted to enhance the sustainability of small-scale fisheries. Using Chile as a case study, we designed a market-based program aimed at improving fishers' livelihoods while incentivizing the establishment and enforcement of no-take areas within areas managed with territorial user right regimes. Building on explicit enabling conditions (i.e., high levels of governance, participation, and empowerment), we used a place-based, human-centered approach to design a program that will have the necessary support and buy-in from local fishers to result in landscape-scale biodiversity benefits. Transactional infrastructure must be complex enough to capture the biodiversity benefits being created, but simple enough so that the program can be scaled up and is attractive to potential financiers. Biodiversity benefits created must be commoditized, and desired behavioral changes must be verified within a transactional context. Demand must be generated for fisher-created biodiversity benefits in order to attract financing and to scale the market model. Important design decisions around these 3 components-supply, transactional infrastructure, and demand-must be made based on local social-ecological conditions. Our market model, which is being piloted in Chile, is a flexible foundation on which to base scalable opportunities to operationalize a scheme that incentivizes local, verifiable biodiversity benefits via conservation behaviors by fishers that could likely result in significant marine conservation gains and novel cross-sector alliances. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Modelling of Box Type Solar Cooker Performance in a Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thermal performance model of box type solar cooker with loaded water is presented. The model was developed using the method of Funk to estimate cooking power in terms of climatic and design parameters for box type solar cooker in a tropical environment. Coefficients for each term used in the model were determined ...

  8. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Waits, L.; Finegan, B.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Hormel, L.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Sibelet, N.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non-traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we examine the coupled social and ecological implications of agricultural intensification Guided by frameworks from political economy, landscape ecology and landscape genetics we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology and genetics analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which increase the genetic structure and reduce the genetic diversity of Symphonia globulifera a forest understory tree species. To offset the effects of agricultural intensification on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  9. A Framework for Effective Assessment of Model-based Projections of Biodiversity to Inform the Next Generation of Global Conservation Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Weiskopf, S. R.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.; Casey, K.; Lenton, T. M.; Leidner, A. K.; Ruane, A. C.; Ferrier, S.; Serbin, S.; Matsuda, H.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Rosa, I.

    2017-12-01

    Biodiversity and ecosystems services underpin political targets for the conservation of biodiversity; however, previous incarnations of these biodiversity-related targets have not relied on integrated model based projections of possible outcomes based on climate and land use change. Although a few global biodiversity models are available, most biodiversity models lie along a continuum of geography and components of biodiversity. Model-based projections of the future of global biodiversity are critical to support policymakers in the development of informed global conservation targets, but the scientific community lacks a clear strategy for integrating diverse data streams in developing, and evaluating the performance of, such biodiversity models. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a framework for ongoing testing and refinement of model-based projections of biodiversity trends and change, by linking a broad variety of biodiversity models with data streams generated by advances in remote sensing, coupled with new and emerging in-situ observation technologies to inform development of essential biodiversity variables, future global biodiversity targets, and indicators. Our two main objectives are to (1) develop a framework for model testing and refining projections of a broad range of biodiversity models, focusing on global models, through the integration of diverse data streams and (2) identify the realistic outputs that can be developed and determine coupled approaches using remote sensing and new and emerging in-situ observations (e.g., metagenomics) to better inform the next generation of global biodiversity targets.

  10. Mutualism in museums: A model for engaging undergraduates in biodiversity science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Anna E; Cicero, Carla; Albe, Monica J; Barclay, Theresa L W; Spencer, Carol L; Koo, Michelle S; Bowie, Rauri C K; Lacey, Eileen A

    2017-11-01

    Museums have an untapped potential to engage students in hands-on learning. Here, we describe the development of a tiered museum-based program at the University of California, Berkeley as a model for engaging undergraduates in biodiversity science. This decade-long effort to increase student participation in collections demonstrates the mutual benefits of undergraduate involvement. Museums benefit from critical help in collections care and an increased intellectual vitality, while students simultaneously gain essential research skills and an unparalleled exposure to biodiversity. Five first steps to creating a program are: dedicate a coordinator, offer credit, diversify participation, create a tiered structure, and build community.

  11. Mutualism in museums: A model for engaging undergraduates in biodiversity science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicero, Carla; Albe, Monica J.; Barclay, Theresa L. W.; Spencer, Carol L.; Koo, Michelle S.; Bowie, Rauri C. K.; Lacey, Eileen A.

    2017-01-01

    Museums have an untapped potential to engage students in hands-on learning. Here, we describe the development of a tiered museum-based program at the University of California, Berkeley as a model for engaging undergraduates in biodiversity science. This decade-long effort to increase student participation in collections demonstrates the mutual benefits of undergraduate involvement. Museums benefit from critical help in collections care and an increased intellectual vitality, while students simultaneously gain essential research skills and an unparalleled exposure to biodiversity. Five first steps to creating a program are: dedicate a coordinator, offer credit, diversify participation, create a tiered structure, and build community. PMID:29161253

  12. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  13. Analysis of biodiversity experiments: A comparison of traditional and linear-model-based methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fibich, P.; Rychtecká, T.; Lepš, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 63, Feb 12 (2015), s. 47-55 ISSN 1146-609X Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : biodiversity effects * diversity- interactions models * species identity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology , Behaviour Impact factor: 1.420, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1146609X15000181

  14. Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Alkemade, R.; Klijn, J.A.; Metzger, M.J.; Reijnen, R.

    2007-01-01

    In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the

  15. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie E Peters

    Full Text Available Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  16. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Valerie E

    2014-01-01

    Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  17. A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Alejandra Chadid

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The loss of tropical forests has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. Here, we examine the conversion of forests to pastures and coca crops (illicit activity on the San Lucas Mountain Range, Colombia for 2002–2007 and 2007–2010. Land use maps and biophysical variables were used as inputs to generate land use and cover change (LUCC models using the DINAMICA EGO software. These analyses revealed a dramatic acceleration of the pace of deforestation in the region, with rates of conversion from forest to pasture doubling from the first to the second period. Altitude, distance to other crops, and distance to rivers were the primary drivers of deforestation. The influence of these drivers, however, differed markedly depending on whether coca cultivation or pastures replaced forest. Conversion to coca was more probable farther from other crops and from settlements. In contrast, proximity to other crops and to settlements increased conversion to pasture. These relationships highlight the different roles of coca and pastures in forest loss, with coca tending to open up new forest frontiers, and pastures tending to consolidate agricultural expansion and urban influence. Large differences between LUCC processes for each period suggest highly dynamic changes, likely associated with shifting underlying causes of deforestation. These changes may relate to shifts in demand for illicit crops, land, or mining products; however, the data to test these hypotheses are currently lacking. More frequent and detailed monitoring is required to guide actions to decrease the loss of forest in this highly vulnerable biodiversity hotspot in the Northern Andes.

  18. Planetary wave prediction: Benefits of tropical data and global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1985-01-01

    Skillful numerical predictions of midlatitude atmospheric planetary waves generally require both tropical data for the initial conditions and a global domain for the forecast model. The lack of either adequate tropical observations or a global domain typically leads to a significant degradation of forecast skill in middle latitudes within the first one to three days of the forecast period. These effects were first discovered by numerical experimentation. They were subsequently explained theoretically, and their importance for practical forecasting was confirmed in a series of prediction experiments using FGGE data.

  19. Polarized microwave forward model simulations for tropical storm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    microwave remote sensing of precipitation sys- tems largely depends on the forward radiative transfer model (Petty 2001), which are themselves based on some assumptions and hence are never perfect. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. (TRMM) satellite was designed to measure preci- pitation with high resolution ...

  20. Combining marine macroecology and palaeoecology in understanding biodiversity: microfossils as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Tittensor, Derek P; Hillebrand, Helmut; Worm, Boris

    2017-02-01

    There is growing interest in the integration of macroecology and palaeoecology towards a better understanding of past, present, and anticipated future biodiversity dynamics. However, the empirical basis for this integration has thus far been limited. Here we review prospects for a macroecology-palaeoecology integration in biodiversity analyses with a focus on marine microfossils [i.e. small (or small parts of) organisms with high fossilization potential, such as foraminifera, ostracodes, diatoms, radiolaria, coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and ichthyoliths]. Marine microfossils represent a useful model system for such integrative research because of their high abundance, large spatiotemporal coverage, and good taxonomic and temporal resolution. The microfossil record allows for quantitative cross-scale research designs, which help in answering fundamental questions about marine biodiversity, including the causes behind similarities in patterns of latitudinal and longitudinal variation across taxa, the degree of constancy of observed gradients over time, and the relative importance of hypothesized drivers that may explain past or present biodiversity patterns. The inclusion of a deep-time perspective based on high-resolution microfossil records may be an important step for the further maturation of macroecology. An improved integration of macroecology and palaeoecology would aid in our understanding of the balance of ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that have shaped the biosphere we inhabit today and affect how it may change in the future. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  1. Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snäll, Tord; Lehtomäki, Joona; Arponen, Anni; Elith, Jane; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-02-01

    There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distribution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost-effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.

  2. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  3. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  4. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  5. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  6. Operationalizing biodiversity for conservation planning

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Biodiversity has acquired such a general meaning that people now find it difficult to pin down a precise sense for planning and policy-making aimed at biodiversity ... Wildlife and Ecology, Tropical Forest Research Centre and the Rainforest Cooperative Research Centre, PO Box 780, Atherton, Queensland, 4883, Australia ...

  7. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélaine Aubry-Kientz

    Full Text Available Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  8. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Hérault, Bruno; Ayotte-Trépanier, Charles; Baraloto, Christopher; Rossi, Vivien

    2013-01-01

    Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  9. Epidemiological Implications of Host Biodiversity and Vector Biology: Key Insights from Simple Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, Andrew D M; Auld, Stuart K J R

    2016-04-01

    Models used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity change and vector-borne disease risk often do not explicitly include the vector; they instead rely on a frequency-dependent transmission function to represent vector dynamics. However, differences between classes of vector (e.g., ticks and insects) can cause discrepancies in epidemiological responses to environmental change. Using a pair of disease models (mosquito- and tick-borne), we simulated substitutive and additive biodiversity change (where noncompetent hosts replaced or were added to competent hosts, respectively), while considering different relationships between vector and host densities. We found important differences between classes of vector, including an increased likelihood of amplified disease risk under additive biodiversity change in mosquito models, driven by higher vector biting rates. We also draw attention to more general phenomena, such as a negative relationship between initial infection prevalence in vectors and likelihood of dilution, and the potential for a rise in density of infected vectors to occur simultaneously with a decline in proportion of infected hosts. This has important implications; the density of infected vectors is the most valid metric for primarily zoonotic infections, while the proportion of infected hosts is more relevant for infections where humans are a primary host.

  10. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  11. Soil functional operating range linked to microbial biodiversity and community composition using denitrifiers as model guild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallin, Sara; Welsh, Allana; Stenström, John; Hallet, Stephanie; Enwall, Karin; Bru, David; Philippot, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    Soil microorganisms are key players in biogeochemical cycles. Yet, there is no consistent view on the significance of microbial biodiversity for soil ecosystem functioning. According to the insurance hypothesis, declines in ecosystem functioning due to reduced biodiversity are more likely to occur under fluctuating, extreme or rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here, we compare the functional operating range, a new concept defined as the complete range of environmental conditions under which soil microbial communities are able to maintain their functions, between four naturally assembled soil communities from a long-term fertilization experiment. A functional trait approach was adopted with denitrifiers involved in nitrogen cycling as our model soil community. Using short-term temperature and salt gradients, we show that the functional operating range was broader and process rates were higher when the soil community was phylogenetically more diverse. However, key bacterial genotypes played an important role for maintaining denitrification as an ecosystem functioning under certain conditions.

  12. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  13. Tropical radioecology tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  14. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

  15. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available % of biodiversity importance. Anticipating potential biodiversity confl icts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models R BLANCHARD1, DR P O?FARRELL1 AND PROF. D RICHARDSON2 1CSIR Natural... Resources and the Environment, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa 2Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa Email: rblanchard@csir.co.za ? www...

  16. Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

    2009-01-01

    Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

  17. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  18. Geography of conservation spending, biodiversity, and culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, T R; Rankin, P S

    2016-10-01

    We used linear and multivariate models to examine the associations between geography, biodiversity, per capita economic output, national spending on conservation, governance, and cultural traits in 55 countries. Cultural traits and social metrics of modernization correlated positively with national spending on conservation. The global distribution of this spending culture was poorly aligned with the distribution of biodiversity. Specifically, biodiversity was greater in the tropics where cultures tended to spend relatively less on conservation and tended to have higher collectivism, formalized and hierarchical leadership, and weaker governance. Consequently, nations lacking social traits frequently associated with modernization, environmentalism, and conservation spending have the largest component of Earth's biodiversity. This has significant implications for setting policies and priorities for resource management given that biological diversity is rapidly disappearing and cultural traits change slowly. Therefore, we suggest natural resource management adapt to and use characteristics of existing social organization rather than wait for or promote social values associated with conservation spending. Supporting biocultural traditions, engaging leaders to increase conservation commitments, cross-national efforts that complement attributes of cultures, and avoiding interference with nature may work best to conserve nature in collective and hierarchical societies. Spending in modernized nations may be a symbolic response to a symptom of economic development and environmental degradation, and here conservation actions need to ensure that biodiversity is not being lost. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  20. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010: the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th Anniversary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Nielsen-Muñoz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Central America is recognized as a mega diverse “hot-spot” and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world’s leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62% and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.América Central es reconocida como región mega- diversa y uno de sus países más pequeños, Costa Rica, se encuentra entre los líderes mundiales en el estudio y conservación de la biodiversidad tropical. Este estudio, inspirado por el 60 aniversario de la Revista de Biología Tropical, actualiza nuestro conocimiento bibliométrico sobre la materia. Hicimos un listado de toda la producción científica sobre la biodiversidad de Costa Rica en la Revista entre 2000 y 2010. La mayoría de los artículos son zoológicos (62% y el 67% de los autores sólo tuvo una publicación en la revista durante ese periodo. Un 54% de los artículos fueron publicados en

  1. A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Martin J P; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Newson, Stuart E; Scholefield, Paul; Brereton, Tom; Oliver, Tom H

    2017-12-01

    Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies.We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively.Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications . This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.

  2. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  3. Local participation in biodiversity conservation initiatives: a comparative analysis of different models in South East Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-López, María Elena; García-Frapolli, Eduardo; Pritchard, Diana J; Sánchez González, María Consuelo; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Reyes-Garcia, Victoria

    2014-12-01

    In Mexico, biodiversity conservation is primarily implemented through three schemes: 1) protected areas, 2) payment-based schemes for environmental services, and 3) community-based conservation, officially recognized in some cases as Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas. In this paper we compare levels of local participation across conservation schemes. Through a survey applied to 670 households across six communities in Southeast Mexico, we document local participation during the creation, design, and implementation of the management plan of different conservation schemes. To analyze the data, we first calculated the frequency of participation at the three different stages mentioned, then created a participation index that characterizes the presence and relative intensity of local participation for each conservation scheme. Results showed that there is a low level of local participation across all the conservation schemes explored in this study. Nonetheless, the payment for environmental services had the highest local participation while the protected areas had the least. Our findings suggest that local participation in biodiversity conservation schemes is not a predictable outcome of a specific (community-based) model, thus implying that other factors might be important in determining local participation. This has implications on future strategies that seek to encourage local involvement in conservation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condori, Bruno; Hijmans, Robert J; Ledent, Jean Francois; Quiroz, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri) and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme). The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the impact of frosts

  5. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Condori

    Full Text Available Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme. The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the

  6. Key Considerations in the Modeling of Tropical Maritime Microwave Attenuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Hui Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some key considerations for modeling of over-sea radio-wave propagations in 5 GHz band. The summarized information is based on a series of measurement campaigns which were recently carried out in the tropical maritime environments near Singapore. Multiray propagations and ducting of radio waves have been highlighted and considered in over-sea path loss modeling and prediction. It is noted that the sea-surface reflection is an important contribution in the received field, while the duct layers could enhance the radio-wave propagations. Our studies also show that the refracted ray inside evaporation duct could be a strong ray for short-range near sea-surface applications and needs to be properly evaluated.

  7. Neotropical Siluriformes as a Model for Insights on Determining Biodiversity of Animal Groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rúbia Ota

    Full Text Available We performed an analysis of the descriptions of new species of Neotropical Siluriformes (catfishes to estimate the number of new species that remain to be described for a complete knowledge on biodiversity of this order, to verify the effectiveness of taxonomic support, and to identify trends and present relevant information for future policies. We conducted a literature review of species descriptions between January 1990 and August 2014. The following metadata were recorded from each article: year of publication, number of species, journal and impact factor, family(s of the described species, number of authors, age of the authors and coauthors, country of the first author's institution and ecoregion of the type-locality. From accumulation of descriptions, we built an estimate model for number of species remaining to be described. We found 595 described species in 402 articles. The data demonstrated that there has been an increased understanding of the diversity of Siluriformes over the last 25 years in the Neotropical region, although 35% of the species still remain to be described. The model estimated that with the current trends and incentives, the biodiversity will be known in almost seven decades. We have reinforced the idea that greater joint efforts should be made by society and the scientific community to obtain this knowledge in a shorter period of time through enhanced programs for promoting science, training and the advancement of professionals before undiscovered species become extinct. The model built in this study can be used for similar estimates of other groups of animals.

  8. Light in Tropical Forest Models: What Detail Matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenkin, A.; Bentley, L. P.; Asner, G. P.; Malhi, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Representations of light in models of tropical forests are typically unconstrained by field data and rife with assumptions, and for good reason: forest light environments are highly variable, difficult and onerous to predict, and the value of improved prediction is unclear. Still, the question remains: how detailed must our models be to be accurate enough, yet simple enough to be able to scale them from plots to landscapes? Here we use field data to constrain 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D light models and integrate them with simple forest models to predict net primary production (NPP) across an Andes-to-Amazon elevation transect in Peru. Field data consist of novel vertical light profile measurements coupled with airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory. Preliminary results indicate that while 1-D models may be "good-enough" and highly-scalable where forest structure is relatively homogenous, more complex models become important as forest structure becomes more heterogeneous. We discuss the implications our results hold for prediction of NPP under a changing climate, and suggest paths forward for useful proxies of light availability in forests to improve and scale up forest models.

  9. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  10. Plots, pixels, and partnerships: prospects for mapping, monitoring and modeling biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Gyde Lund; Victor A. Rudis; Kenneth W. Stolte

    1998-01-01

    Many biodiversity inventories are conducted in relatively small areas, yet information is needed at the national, regional, and global levels.Most nations have forest inventory plot networks.While forest inventories may not contain the detailed species information that biodiversity inventories do, the forest inventory plot networks do represent large areas.Linkages...

  11. Modelling biodiversity and land use: urban growth, agriculture and nature in a wetland area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Rietveld, P.

    2004-01-01

    Wherever human land use is located near sensitive natural areas, such as wetlands, it has significant impacts on biodiversity in those areas. Both species richness and species composition are affected. As biodiversity is lost, conservation efforts increase and act as a constraint on land use

  12. Taming indeterminacy: The Co-production of Biodiversity Restoration, Flood Protection and Biophysical Modelling of Rivers and Coastal Environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hemert, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, I compare two accounts of how biodiversity restoration, flood protection and bio-physical models are co-produced in the Netherlands. Both are historical accounts of the interplay between research practices, policy discourse and intervention practices, one focusing on rivers and the

  13. Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to sustain biodiversity in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem : balancing complexity and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian J. Palik; Robert J. Mitchell; J. Kevin Hiers

    2002-01-01

    Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to maintain biodiversity is a popular concept, yet its application remains elusive. We discuss difficulties inherent to this idea, and suggest approaches to facilitate implementation, using longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) as an example. Natural disturbance regimes are spatially and temporally variable. Variability...

  14. The Impact of Canonical and Non-canonical El Niño on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: High-resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricola, C. M.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by modulating vertical wind shear and tropospheric temperature in the tropical Atlantic, with warmer than average SST during El Niño suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones. The location of maximum SST warming during El Niño varies from the East Pacific (canonical) to Central Pacific (non-canonical/Modoki). This study investigates how the location and magnitude of maximum tropical Pacific warming impacts Atlantic tropical cyclones, and through what mechanisms. Climate simulations are performed to supplement observationally based studies, which yield conflicting results and rely on a relatively short data record that is complicated by factors other than ENSO, such as Atlantic SST variability. The simulations are run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured as a tropical channel model at a relatively fine horizontal resolution of 27 km compared to the current generation of global climate models that typically use a 50 - 100 km grid. Monthly climatological SST is prescribed in the control simulation, and mechanistic experiments are forced by tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of Central Pacific and East Pacific El Niño. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy is used to evaluate the response in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity to Central and East Pacific El Niño, and the response in atmospheric conditions relevant for tropical cyclones is diagnosed using a genesis potential index.

  15. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  16. Pechora River basin integrated system management PRISM; biodiversity assessment for the Pechora River basin; Cluster B: biodiversity, land use & forestry modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der T.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the biodiversity for the Pechora River basin Integrated System Management (PRISM). The Pechora River Basin, situated just west of the Ural Mountains, Russia, consists of vast boreal forests and tundra landscapes, partly pristine and undisturbed. The concept of biodiversity is

  17. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  18. Modeling Soil Water in the Caatinga Tropical Dry Forest of Northeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, C.; Wilcox, B.; Souza, E.; Lima, J. R. D. S.; West, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    The Caatinga is a tropical dry forest unique to northeastern Brazil. It has a relatively high degree of endism and supports a population of about 20 million subsistence farmers. However, it is poorly understood, under-researched and often over-looked in regards to other Brazilian ecosystems. It is a highly perturbed system that suffers from deforestation, land use change, and may be threatened by climate change. How these perturbations affect hydrology is unknown, but may have implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services and resiliency. Therefore, understanding key hydrological processes is critical, particularly as related to deforestation. In this study, Hydrus 1D, which is based on van Genuchten parameters to describe the soil water curve and Richard's Equation to describe flow in the vadose zone, was used to model soil moisture in the Caatinga ecosystem. The aim was 1) to compare hydraulic characterization between a forested Caatinga site and a deforested pasture site, 2) to analyze inter-annual variability, and 3) to compare with observed soil moisture data. Hydraulic characterization included hydraulic conductivity, infiltration, water content and pressure head trends. Van Genuchten parameters were derived using the Beerkan method, which is based on soil texture, particle distribution, as well as in-situ small-scale infiltration experiments. Observational data included soil moisture and precipitation logged every half-hour from September 2013 to April 2014 to include the dry season and rainy season. It is expected that the forested Caatinga site will have a higher hydraulic conductivity as well as retain higher soil moisture values. These differences may be amplified during the dry season, as water resources become scarce. Deviations between modeled data and observed data will allow for further hypothesis to be proposed, especially those related to soil water repellency. Hence, these results may indicate difference in soil water dynamics between a

  19. Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Kim, D.; Sobel, A. H.; Murakami, H.; Zhao, M.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in four high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving model, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. The advantage of this approach is that that we can directly compare the genesis processes between the several different climate models and with existing cloud-resolving model simulations. We also use these and other process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that are responsible for a good simulation of tropical cyclone activity.

  20. Modelling coastal vulnerability : Design and evaluation of a vulnerability model for tropical storms and floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchand, M.

    2009-01-01

    This resarch thesis focuses on vulnerability of societies in low lying coastal and deltaic environments to tropical cyclonic storms and floods. Models that explore vulnerability under various planned and unplanned conditions hardly exist. Within the Andhra Pradesh Cyclone Hazard Mitigation Project

  1. CFD modeling of airflow for indoor comfort in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aynsley, R.; Su, B.

    2006-01-01

    In humid tropical environments air movement is a common means to achieving indoor thermal comfort. In many locations closer to the equator, breezes are weaker and less reliable. Whatever the source of air movement it is important to quantity its potential in terms of the percentage of time the air movement will be available and the likely speed of the air movement in occupied zone of a building. It is also important to establish appropriate thermal comfort criteria with respect to air temperature, humidity and air movement. There are a number of techniques for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Boundary layer wind tunnels provide an opportunity to both measure and visually observe such airflow through model building. It is important to model adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns. Such studies are relatively expensive. The recent availability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software for personal computers offers an alternative method for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Very expensive versions of this software have been available for large computers and work stations for many years but they have only recently become available for smaller computers. There are some features of such software that should be compared before purchasing a copy or a license. This paper discusses such features in detail. It is important in the case of natural ventilation that adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns are included in the modeling. This paper also stresses the importance of calibrating the CFD software output against some physical measurements or wind tunnel modeling to ensure that the CFD results are realistic

  2. Spectral signatures of the tropical Pacific dynamics from model and altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionel, Tchilibou Michel; Gourdeau, Lionel; Morrow, Rosemary; Djath, Bugshin; Jouanno, Julien; Marin, Frederic

    2017-04-01

    The tropics are distinguishable from mid latitudes by their small Coriolis parameter vanishing at the equator, large Rossby radius, and strong anisotropic circulation. These peculiarities are at the origin of dynamics that strongly respond to the wind forcing through zonally propagating tropical waves, and of a large range of wavenumbers covering meso and submesoscale interactions. The main tropical meso and submesoscales features are associated with Tropical Instability Waves (Marchesiello et al., 2011), but coherent vorticity structures span the tropical band as described by Ubelmann and Fu (2011). This study aims to infer the dynamics of the tropical Pacific through spectral EKE and SSH analyses by looking at their latitudinal dependence. Also, a question of interest is the observability of such dynamics using along track altimetric wavenumber spectra since the tracks are mainly oriented meridionally in the tropics. This study is based on the 1.12° resolution DRAKKAR global model. Frequency-zonal wavenumber EKE spectra, and their corresponding 1D frequency and zonal wavenumber are analyzed in different latitudinal bands in the tropics illustrating the contrast between the dynamics in the equatorial belt and in the off -equatorial belt. Zonal and meridional wavenumber EKE spectra, and 2D (horizontal wavenumber) spectra of zonal and meridional velocities are used to illustrate the degree of anisotropy in the tropics depending on latitude. These EKE spectra and the relationship between EKE and SSH spectra helps us to discuss the validity of QG turbulence theories in the tropics. These model results combined with those from a 1/36° resolution regional model with explicit tides point out the actual limitation of along track altimetric SSH to infer small scale dynamics in the tropics due the high energy level of high frequency ageostrophic motions.

  3. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  4. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M.G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N.C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    , France, 3Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International Laboratory, NIO, Goa, India, 4LMI ICEMASA, IRD, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, 5Laboratoire de Glaciologie et G... be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF. 1. Introduction The Indian Ocean (IO) is unique among the three tropical oceans for being bounded to the north by the Asian continent. The resulting summer land-sea temperature gradient promotes...

  5. Proposta de atividade de campo para o ensino de biodiversidade usando formigas como modelo = A field work proposal for teaching biodiversity using ants as a model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Soares Cordeiro

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available As atividades de campo continuam sendo um caminho árduo para o professor, entretanto, elas representam um dos principais passos para o estudo da biodiversidade. Nosso país é considerado megadiverso, mas ensinar sobre esse tema é complexo. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho foi delinear um protocolo de atividades de campo para que o professor possa aplicar durante suas aulas sobre diversidade biológica. As formigas foram escolhidas como modelo de estudo, pois são ricas e abundantes na grande maioria dos ecossistemas tropicais. Foram usadas iscas de sardinha em óleo comestível para a coleta desses insetos; e para a obtenção de um volume de material biológico suficiente paraembasar as discussões pertinentes sobre o assunto proposto serão necessárias três expedições de coleta, com 15 iscas cada uma.The field works is still a hard way for the teacher; however, they represent a major step for the study of biodiversity. Our country is considered mega-diverse but teaching this subject is complex. The objective of this study was to outline a protocol for field works sothat the teachers can implement it during their lectures about biodiversity. The ants were chosen as study model since they are rich and abundant in most tropical ecosystems. Sardine baits were used in edible oil to collect these insects; and in order to obtain enoughvolume of biological material to base the discussions concerning the proposed issue three collection expeditions will be required, using 15 baits each.

  6. Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paoli, Gary D; Wells, Philip L; Meijaard, Erik; Struebig, Matthew J; Marshall, Andrew J; Obidzinski, Krystof; Tan, Aseng; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Yaap, Betsy; Ferry Slik, Jw; Morel, Alexandra; Perumal, Balu; Wielaard, Niels; Husson, Simon; D'Arcy, Laura

    2010-11-23

    Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The tropics also harbour more than half the world's threatened species, raising the possibility that reducing GHG emissions by curtailing tropical deforestation could provide substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation. Here we explore the potential for such co-benefits in Indonesia, a leading source of GHG emissions from land cover and land use change, and among the most species-rich countries in the world. We show that focal ecosystems for interventions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia do not coincide with areas supporting the most species-rich communities or highest concentration of threatened species. We argue that inherent trade-offs among ecosystems in emission reduction potential, opportunity cost of foregone development and biodiversity values will require a regulatory framework to balance emission reduction interventions with biodiversity co-benefit targets. We discuss how such a regulatory framework might function, and caution that pursuing emission reduction strategies without such a framework may undermine, not enhance, long-term prospects for biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  7. Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferry Slik JW

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. The tropics also harbour more than half the world's threatened species, raising the possibility that reducing GHG emissions by curtailing tropical deforestation could provide substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation. Here we explore the potential for such co-benefits in Indonesia, a leading source of GHG emissions from land cover and land use change, and among the most species-rich countries in the world. We show that focal ecosystems for interventions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia do not coincide with areas supporting the most species-rich communities or highest concentration of threatened species. We argue that inherent trade-offs among ecosystems in emission reduction potential, opportunity cost of foregone development and biodiversity values will require a regulatory framework to balance emission reduction interventions with biodiversity co-benefit targets. We discuss how such a regulatory framework might function, and caution that pursuing emission reduction strategies without such a framework may undermine, not enhance, long-term prospects for biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  8. Global Biodiversity Indicators Reflect the Modeled Impacts of Protected Area Policy Change

    OpenAIRE

    Costelloe, B.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Nicholson, E.; Mcrae, L.; Collen, B.; Craigie, I. D.; Rondinini, C.

    2016-01-01

    Global biodiversity indicators can be used to measure the status and trends of biodiversity relating to Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) targets. Whether such indicators can support decision makers by distinguishing among policy options remains poorly evaluated. We tested the ability of two CBD indicators, the Living Planet Index and the Red List Index, to reflect projected changes in mammalian populations in sub-Saharan Africa in response to potential policies related to CBD targets ...

  9. Maintenance of forest biodiversity in a post-Soviet governance model: perceptions by local actors in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazdinis, Marius; Angelstam, Per; Lazdinis, Imantas

    2007-07-01

    Successful biodiversity conservation does not depend on ecologic knowledge alone. Good conservation policies and policy implementation tools are equally important. Moreover, the knowledge, skills, and attitudes of local actors, directly in charge of operations in the field, are a key to successful policy implementation. The connections between policy objectives and their implementation as well as the involvement of local actors' efforts in implementing policy objectives largely depend on the governance model in use. This article assesses the knowledge of local actors in relation to the biodiversity conservation objectives and tools in Lithuanian forest management. As a main framework for this study, the needs assessment approach was applied. The study used both in-depth open-ended interviews and follow-up telephone interviews. Two state forest enterprises in Lithuania were selected as the study sites. The findings indicate that policy objectives in the field of forest biodiversity conservation and the related tools are well known but not well understood by those in charge of forest biodiversity policy implementation. To improve the situation, a transition toward adaptive learning and participatory governance as a means of facilitating conservation efforts is proposed.

  10. Linking disturbance and resistance to invasion via changes in biodiversity: a conceptual model and an experimental test on rocky reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleri, Fabio; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Jaklin, Andrej; Iveša, Ljiljana

    2016-04-01

    Biological invasions threaten biodiversity worldwide. Nonetheless, a unified theory linking disturbance and resistance to invasion through a mechanistic understanding of the changes caused to biodiversity is elusive. Building on different forms of the disturbance-biodiversity relationship and on the Biotic Resistance Hypothesis (BRH), we constructed conceptual models showing that, according to the main biodiversity mechanism generating invasion resistance (complementary vs. identity effects), disturbance can either promote or hinder invasion. Following the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH), moderate levels of disturbance (either frequency or intensity) are expected to enhance species richness. This will promote invasion resistance when complementarity is more important than species identity. Negative effects of severe disturbance on invasion resistance, due to reductions in species richness, can be either overcompensated or exacerbated by species identity effects, depending on the life-traits becoming dominant within the native species pool. Different invasion resistance scenarios are generated when the diversity-disturbance relationship is negative or positive monotonic. Predictions from these models were experimentally tested on rocky reefs. Macroalgal canopies differing in species richness (1 vs. 2 vs. 3) and identity, were exposed to either a moderate or a severe pulse disturbance. The effects of different canopy-forming species on the seaweed, Caulerpa cylindracea, varied from positive (Cystoseira crinita) to neutral (Cystoseira barbata) to negative (Cystoseira compressa). After 2 years, severely disturbed plots were monopolized by C. compressa and supported less C. cylindracea. Our study shows that the effects of disturbance on invasion depend upon its intensity, the main mechanism through which biodiversity generates invasion resistance and the life-traits selected within the native species pool. Disturbance can sustain invasion resistance when

  11. The Effectiveness of Conservation Reserves: Land Tenure Impacts upon Biodiversity across Extensive Natural Landscapes in the Tropical Savannahs of the Northern Territory, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C.Z. Woinarski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether there is a biodiversity benefit (“dividend” associated with the existence and management of conservation reserves in the extensive and largely natural landscape of northern Australia. Species richness and abundance of vertebrate fauna and the intensity of a range of disturbance factors were compared across a set of 967 sampled quadrats, located either in pastoral lands, Indigenous lands or conservation reserves, with all sampled quadrats within a single vegetation type (open forests and savannah woodlands dominated by Eucalyptus miniata and/or E. tetrodonta. The relationships with land tenure varied between major taxonomic groups, but generally (and particularly for threatened species values were highest for conservation reserves. This “biodiversity dividend” associated with conservation reserves is considered to be due to the effects of management rather than because conservation reserves were established on lands supporting atypically high conservation values. The impact of weeds and (unsurprisingly livestock was greatest on pastoral lands, and pig impact was greatest in conservation reserves. Although pastoral and Indigenous lands supported lower biodiversity tallies than reserved lands, the conservation values of reserved lands in this region are probably substantially supported by the maintenance of relatively intact ecological systems across all lands.

  12. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  13. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-01-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  14. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Clark

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  15. Tropical landscapes in transition? : Widespread land-use change and measures to maintain forests, carbon stocks and biodiversity in North and East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Laan, C.

    2016-01-01

    The production of commodities such as palm oil and pulpwood is leading to large-scale land use change in the rural tropics to fulfil the demands of the increasing world population and overall living standard. On the one hand, such land use changes provide income to companies, smallholders and

  16. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time

  17. Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to resolution, convection scheme and ocean flux parameterization over Eastern Tropical Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans in the RegCM4 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika; Zimmermann, Klaus

    2017-07-01

    The sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) to resolution, convection scheme and ocean surface flux parameterization is investigated with a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the CORDEX Central America domain, including the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) basins. Simulations for the TC seasons of the ten-year period (1989-1998) driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis fields are completed using 50 and 25 km grid spacing, two convection schemes (Emanuel, Em; and Kain-Fritsch, KF) and two ocean surface flux representations, a Monin-Obukhov scheme available in the BATS land surface package (Dickinson et al. 1993), and the scheme of Zeng et al. (J Clim 11(10):2628-2644, 1998). The model performance is assessed against observed TC characteristics for the simulation period. In general, different sensitivities are found over the two basins investigated. The simulations using the KF scheme show higher TC density, longer TC duration (up to 15 days) and stronger peak winds (>50 ms-1) than those using Em (<40 ms-1). All simulations show a better spatial representation of simulated TC density and interannual variability over the TNA than over the ETP. The 25 km resolution simulations show greater TC density, duration and intensity compared to the 50 km resolution ones, especially over the ETP basin, and generally more in line with observations. Simulated TCs show a strong sensitivity to ocean fluxes, especially over the TNA basin, with the Monin-Obukhov scheme leading to an overestimate of the TC number, and the Zeng scheme being closer to observations. All simulations capture the density of cyclones during active TC seasons over the TNA, however, without data assimilation, the tracks of individual events do not match closely the corresponding observed ones. Overall, the best model performance is obtained when using the KF and Zeng schemes at 25 km grid spacing.

  18. Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  19. Teaching Biodiversity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Author Affiliations. Madhav Gadgil1 2. Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India. Biodiversity Unit, Jowaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur P.O. Jakkur, Bangalore 560064, India ...

  20. Tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  1. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  2. Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis processes in climate model and cloud-resolving model simulations using moist static energy budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam; Kim, Daehyun; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wehner, Michael; Zarzycki, Colin; Zhao, Ming

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in five high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving models, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We then compare the genesis processes; in particular, the role of cloud-radiation interactions, to those of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized cloud-resolving model simulations.

  3. Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Wehner

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.

  4. How Well Does LCA Model Land Use Impacts on Biodiversity?--A Comparison with Approaches from Ecology and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Michael; de Souza, Danielle Maia; Antón, Assumpció; Teixeira, Ricardo F M; Michelsen, Ottar; Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz; Sala, Serenella; Milà i Canals, Llorenç

    2016-03-15

    The modeling of land use impacts on biodiversity is considered a priority in life cycle assessment (LCA). Many diverging approaches have been proposed in an expanding literature on the topic. The UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative is engaged in building consensus on a shared modeling framework to highlight best-practice and guide model application by practitioners. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of 31 models from both the LCA and the ecology/conservation literature (20 from LCA, 11 from non-LCA fields) according to a set of criteria reflecting (i) model completeness, (ii) biodiversity representation, (iii) impact pathway coverage, (iv) scientific quality, and (v) stakeholder acceptance. We show that LCA models tend to perform worse than those from ecology and conservation (although not significantly), implying room for improvement. We identify seven best-practice recommendations that can be implemented immediately to improve LCA models based on existing approaches in the literature. We further propose building a "consensus model" through weighted averaging of existing information, to complement future development. While our research focuses on conceptual model design, further quantitative comparison of promising models in shared case studies is an essential prerequisite for future informed model choice.

  5. Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol

  6. The Biodiversity Benefits and Opportunity Costs of Plantation Forest Management: A Modelling Case Study of Pinus radiata in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhung Nghiem

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study modelled the potential biodiversity benefits and the opportunity costs of a patch-clear-cutting strategy over a clear-cutting strategy for Pinus radiata in New Zealand. Patch-clear cutting is a special case of clear cutting involving the removal of all the trees from strips or patches within a stand, leaving the remainder uncut or clear cutting a series of strips or patches. A forest-level optimisation model was extended to include uncertainty in timber growth, plant diversity, and cutting costs. Using a species-area relationship and economies of cutting scale, the net present value and optimal rotation age under alternative management strategies were calculated. Results suggested that the optimal rotation ages were similar (24 and 25 years for the two cutting strategies. Patch-clear cutting provided higher biodiversity benefits (i.e., 59 vs. 11 understorey plant species with an opportunity cost of 27 NZD (18 USD per extra plant species or 1250 NZD (820 USD ha−1. However, the true benefits of patch-clear cutting would be even greater if other benefits of stand retention are included. Our research can potentially inform local decision making and inform international systems of payment for environmental services, such as the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation program, to conserve biodiversity in developing countries with plantation forests.

  7. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (wind speed are necessary to produce sea salt aerosol emissions in the right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  8. Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

  9. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

    2016-10-20

    Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational

  10. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  11. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  12. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daam, Michiel A.; Van den Brink, Paul J.

    2011-01-01

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: → Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. → Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. → Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. → Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. → Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  13. Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling (SDM is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1 spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2 differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3 the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

  14. Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sullivan, Martin J.P.; Talbot, Joey; Lewis, Simon L.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Qie, Lan; Begne, Serge K.; Chave, Jerôme; Cuni-Sanchez, Aida; Hubau, Wannes; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Bongers, Frans; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Sheil, Douglas

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest

  15. Ecology: The Tropical Deforestation Debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Ken

    2016-08-22

    Tropical deforestation is a significant cause of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. A new study shows that deforestation today leaves a carbon and biodiversity debt to be paid over subsequent years. This has potentially profound implications for forest conservation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Teaching Biodiversity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Madhav Gadgil1 2. Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India. Biodiversity Unit, Jowaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur P.O. Jakkur, Bangalore 560064, India. Resonance – Journal of Science Education. Current Issue : Vol. 23, Issue 2 · Current Issue

  17. Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.; Kim, D.; Moon, Y.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However, biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore tropical cyclogenesis and intensification processes in six high-resolution climate models from NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, and NASA, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We use two methods of compositing: a composite over all TC track points in a given intensity range, and a composite relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm (at the same stage in the TC life cycle).

  18. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  19. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.

  20. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available for biodiversity (Evans et al., 2010, Wilcove et al., 2000), as a wider 17 range of land types can be brought into production when compared to conventional 18 agricultural areas (Beringer et al., 2011, Field et al., 2007, Righelato & Spracklen, 2007). 19 One... modelling (SDM) techniques that rely on 3 presence-only records have been shown to provide a useful screening tool to determine 4 suitable climatic environments for potential dedicated energy crops (Evans et al., 2010). The 5 recent use of SDMs...

  1. Biodiversity Conservation in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Dale Squires

    2014-01-01

    Asian's remarkable economic growth brought many benefits but also fuelled threats to its ecosystems and biodiversity. Economic growth brings biodiversity threats but also conservation opportunities. Continued biodiversity loss is inevitable, but the types, areas and rates of biodiversity loss are not. Prioritising biodiversity conservation, tempered by what is tractable, remains a high priority. Policy and market distortions and failures significantly underprice biodiversity, undermine ecosys...

  2. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Resolution, Convection Scheme and Ocean Flux Parameterization over Eastern Tropical Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans in RegCM4 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika; Zimmermann, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    The sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclones (TC) to resolution and convection scheme parameterization is investigated over the CORDEX Central America domain. The performance of the simulations, performed for a ten-year period (1989-1998) using ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary and initial conditions, is assessed considering 50 km and 25 km resolution, and the use of two different convection schemes: Emanuel (Em) and Kain-Fritsch (KF). Two ocean surface fluxes are also compared as well: the Monin-Obukhov scheme, and the one proposed by Zeng et al. (1998). By comparing with observations, for the whole period we assess the spatial representation of the TC, and their intensity. At interannual scale we assess the representation of their variability and at daily scale we compare observed and simulated tracks in order to establish a measure of how similar to observed are the simulated tracks. In general the simulations using KF convection scheme show higher TC density, as well as longer-duration TC (up to 15 days) with stronger winds (> 50ms-1) than those using Em (<40ms-1). Similar results were found for simulations using 25 km respect to 50 km resolution. All simulations show a better spatial representation of simulated TC density and its interannual variability over the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) than over the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP). The 25 km resolution simulations show an overestimation of TC density compared to observations over ETP off the coast of Mexico. The duration of the TC in simulations using 25km resolution is similar to the observations, while is underestimated by the 50km resolution. The Monin-Obukhov ocean flux overestimates the number of TCs, while Zeng parameterization give a number similar to observations in both oceans. At daily scale, in general all simulations capture the density of cyclones during highly active TC seasons over the TNA, however the tracks generally are not coincident with observations, except for highly

  3. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  4. Mycorrhizas and tropical soil fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Kuyper, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Major factors that constrain tropical soil fertility and sustainable agriculture are low nutrient capital, moisture stress, erosion, high P fixation, high acidity with aluminium toxicity, and low soil biodiversity. The fragility of many tropical soils limits food production in annual cropping

  5. Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Po-Chedley, Stephen; Fu Qiang

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have examined tropical upper tropospheric warming by comparing coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (GCM) simulations from Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) with satellite and radiosonde observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. These studies showed that models tended to overestimate increases in static stability between the upper and lower-middle troposphere. We revisit this issue using atmospheric GCMs with prescribed historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs that participated in the latest model intercomparison project, CMIP5. It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper tropospheric warming relative to the lower-middle troposphere as compared with satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements. It is also shown that the results from CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs are similar to findings from CMIP3 coupled GCMs. The apparent model-observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. (letter)

  6. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1998-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. The information used in these models pertains mostly to temperate and cold climate data, with these data mostly being hard-wired into the body of the model. At the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional data (South East Asia) with transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. Flexibility has been incorporated into the the design of the model to allow application in other regions. Where the relevant data are not available, default temperate data are used whilst specific research will be initiated to determine the information required. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for the display of input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also to the underlying assumptions

  7. The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daehyun; Sobel, Adam H.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Chen, Yonghua; Camargo, Suzana J.; Yao, Mao-Sung; Kelley, Maxwell; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2012-01-01

    The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

  8. Relationship between biodiversity and agricultural production

    OpenAIRE

    Brunetti, Ilaria; Tidball, Mabel; Couvet, Denis

    2018-01-01

    Agriculture is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. In this work we model the interdependent relationship between biodiversity and agriculture on a farmed land, supposing that, while agriculture has a negative impact on biodiversity, the latter can increase agricultural production. Farmers act as myopic agents, who maximize their instantaneous profit without considering the negative effects of their practice on the evolution of biodiversity. We find that a tax on inputs can have a pos...

  9. Aboveground Biomass Modeling from Field and LiDAR Data in Brazilian Amazon Tropical Rain Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, C. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Vierling, L. A.; Keller, M. M.; Klauberg Silva, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forests are an important component of global carbon stocks, but tropical forest responses to climate change are not sufficiently studied or understood. Among remote sensing technologies, airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) may be best suited for quantifying tropical forest carbon stocks. Our objective was to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) using airborne LiDAR and field plot data in Brazilian tropical rain forest. Forest attributes such as tree density, diameter at breast height, and heights were measured at a combination of square plots and linear transects (n=82) distributed across six different geographic zones in the Amazon. Using previously published allometric equations, tree AGB was computed and then summed to calculate total AGB at each sample plot. LiDAR-derived canopy structure metrics were also computed at each sample plot, and random forest regression modelling was applied to predict AGB from selected LiDAR metrics. The LiDAR-derived AGB model was assessed using the random forest explained variation, adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. R²), root mean square error (RMSE, both absolute and relative) and BIAS (both absolute and relative). Our findings showed that the 99th percentile of height and height skewness were the best LiDAR metrics for AGB prediction. The AGB model using these two best predictors explained 59.59% of AGB variation, with an Adj. R² of 0.92, RMSE of 33.37 Mg/ha (20.28%), and bias of -0.69 (-0.42%). This study showed that LiDAR canopy structure metrics can be used to predict AGC stocks in Tropical Forest with acceptable precision and accuracy. Therefore, we conclude that there is good potential to monitor carbon sequestration in Brazilian Tropical Rain Forest using airborne LiDAR data, large field plots, and the random forest algorithm.

  10. Biodiversity and spatial distribution of Rotifera in a shallow ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Biodiversity and spatial distribution of Rotifera in a shallow hyperuetrophic tropical Lake (Cameroon). TSH Zebaze, T Njine, N Kemka, D Niyitegeka, M Nola, MS Foto, E Djiukom, G Ajeagah, HJ Dumont ...

  11. Decision support system for peatland management in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ritzema, H.P.; Grobbe, T.; Chong, T.; Wösten, J.H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Large areas of globally important tropical peatland in Southeast Asia are threatened by land clearance, degradation and fire, jeopardising their natural functions as reservoirs of biodiversity, carbon stores and hydrological buffers. Many development projects on tropical peatlands have failed

  12. Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.D. Hollingsworth (T. Déirdre); E.R. Adams (Emily R.); R.M. Anderson (Roy); K. Atkins (Katherine); S. Bartsch (Sarah); M-G. Basáñez (María-Gloria); M. Behrend (Matthew); D.J. Blok (David); L.A.C. Chapman (Lloyd A. C.); L.E. Coffeng (Luc); O. Courtenay (Orin); R.E. Crump (Ron E.); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); A.P. Dobson (Andrew); L. Dyson (Louise); H. Farkas (Hajnal); A.P. Galvani (Alison P.); M. Gambhir (Manoj); D. Gurarie (David); M.A. Irvine (Michael A.); S. Jervis (Sarah); M.J. Keeling (Matt J.); L. Kelly-Hope (Louise); C. King (Charles); B.Y. Lee (Bruce Y.); E.A. le Rutte (Epke); T.M. Lietman (Thomas M.); M. Ndeffo-Mbah (Martial); G.F. Medley (Graham F.); E. Michael (Edwin); A. Pandey (Abhishek); J.K. Peterson (Jennifer K.); A. Pinsent (Amy); T.C. Porco (Travis C.); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); L. Reimer (Lisa); K.S. Rock (Kat S.); B.K. Singh (Brajendra K.); W.A. Stolk (Wilma); S. Swaminathan (Subramanian); S.J. Torr (Steve J.); J. Townsend (Jeffrey); J. Truscott (James); M. Walker (Martin); A. Zoueva (Alexandra)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractQuantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an

  13. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  14. Tropical Peatland water management modelling of the Air Hitam Laut catchment in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wösten, H.; Hooijer, A.; Siderius, C.; Dira Satriadi Rais,; Aswandi Idris,; Rieley, J.

    2006-01-01

    Human induced land use change and associated fire alter profoundly the hydrology of tropical peatlands and thus affect the functioning of entire river catchments. The hydrological model SIMGRO was used to calculate the effects of drainage on peat water levels, peat surface morphology and river flows

  15. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  16. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  17. Current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Kaschner

    Full Text Available Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

  18. Tropical Cyclone Formation in 30-day Simulation Using Cloud-System-Resolving Global Nonhydrostatic Model (NICAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanase, W.; Satoh, M.; Iga, S.; Tomita, H.

    2007-12-01

    We are developing an icosahedral-grid non-hydrostatic AGCM, which can explicitly represent cumulus or meso-scale convection over the entire globe. We named the model NICAM (Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model). On 2005, we have performed a simulations with horizontal grid intervals of 14, 7 and 3.5 km using realistic topography and sea surface temperature in April 2004 (Miura et al., 2007; GRL). It simulated a typhoon Sudal that actually developed over the Northwestern Pacific in 2004. In the present study, the NICAM model with the horizontal grid interval of 14 km was used for perpetual July experiment with 30 forecasting days. In this simulation, several tropical cyclones formed over the wesetern and eastern North Pacific, althought the formation over the western North Pacific occured a little further north to the actually observed region. The mature tropical cyclones with intense wind speed had a structure of a cloud-free eye and eye wall. We have found that the enviromental parameters associated with the tropical cyclone genesis explain well the simulated region of tropical cyclone generation. Over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, westward-moving disturbances like African wave are simulated, which seems to be related to the cyclone formation over the eastern North Pacific. On the other hand, the simulated tropical cyclones over the western North Pacifis seem to form by different factors as has been suggested by the previous studies based on observation. Although the model still has some problems and is under continuous improvement, we can discuss what dynamics is to be represented using a global high-resolution model.

  19. Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Zhou, Shudong; Burkhard, Benjamin; Müller, Felix

    2014-08-15

    One focus of ecosystem service research is the connection between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being as well as the socioeconomic influences on them. Despite existing investigations, exact impacts from the human system on the dynamics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being are still uncertain because of the insufficiency of the respective quantitative analyses. Our research aims are discerning the socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being and demonstrating mutual impacts between these items. We propose a DPSIR framework coupling ecological integrity, ecosystem services as well as human well-being and suggest DPSIR indicators for the case study area Jiangsu, China. Based on available statistical and surveying data, we revealed the factors significantly impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the research area through factor analysis and correlation analysis, using the 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu as samples. The results show that urbanization and industrialization in the urban areas have predominant positive influences on regional biodiversity, agricultural productivity and tourism services as well as rural residents' living standards. Additionally, the knowledge, technology and finance inputs for agriculture also have generally positive impacts on these system components. Concerning regional carbon storage, non-cropland vegetation cover obviously plays a significant positive role. Contrarily, the expansion of farming land and the increase of total food production are two important negative influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem's food provisioning service capacity, regional tourism income and the well-being of the rural population. Our study provides a promising approach based on the DPSIR model to quantitatively capture the socioeconomic influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being for human-environmental systems

  20. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  1. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  2. Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, S.; Lee, W. J.; Kang, K.; Shin, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction scheme using selected and weighted method was developed and evaluated for tropical cyclone forecast. The analyzed tropical cyclone track and intensity data set provided by Korea Meteorological Administration and 11 numerical model outputs - GDAPS, GEPS, GFS (data resolution; 50 and 100 km), GFES, HWRF, IFS(data resolution; 50 and 100 km), IFS EPS, JGSM, and TEPS - during 2011-2014 were used for this study. The procedure suggested in this study was divided into two stages: selecting and weighting process. First several numerical models were chosen based on the past model's performances in the selecting stage. Next, weights, referred to as regression coefficients, for each model forecasts were calculated by applying the linear and nonlinear regression technique to past model forecast data in the weighting stage. Finally, tropical cyclone forecasts were determined by using both selected and weighted multi-model values at that forecast time. The preliminary result showed that selected MME's improvement rate (%) was more than 5% comparing with non-selected MME at 72 h track forecast.

  3. Tropical cyclone sensitivity to ocean coupling in the ECMWF coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Kristian S.; Magnusson, Linus; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

    2017-05-01

    We present an investigation of the performance of the ECMWF coupled atmosphere-waves-ocean model for different ocean and atmosphere resolutions on a series of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific with the aim to better understand the coupled feedback mechanisms in these extreme conditions. For some of the test cases, we only find little impact of coupling the atmosphere to the ocean, while in others, we observe a very large impact. To further understand these differences, we have selected two tropical cyclones (TCs) as case studies: TC Haiyan (with small impact of coupling) and TC Neoguri (with large impact of coupling). The comparison between these two cases suggests that the upper ocean stratification is the key in determining the strength of the coupled feedback. A strong coupled feedback is found whenever the ocean heat content of the upper layer is low while a very weak coupled feedback is found whenever the ocean has a thick warm mixed layer. The oceanographic response to tropical cyclones for the two storms has been compared to sea surface temperature and derived surface currents from drifting buoys and to subsurface observations from Argo and ship launched XBT's. These comparisons show that we are able to realistically reproduce the atmospheric and oceanographic interaction during tropical cyclone conditions which gives us confidence that the coupled modeling system is physically sound.

  4. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... enabled to conclude that the non-destructive sampling was a good approach to determining reliable basic wood density. The comparative analysis of species-specific models in this study with selected generic models for tropical forests indicated low probability to identify effective generic models with good...

  5. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariño Arturo H

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity of a country; (b the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Methods Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Results Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most non-participant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. Conclusions The BIP Index could potentially help in (a identifying

  6. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP) Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a) the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity) of a country; (b) the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c) the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Methods Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Results Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most non-participant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. Conclusions The BIP Index could potentially help in (a) identifying countries most likely to

  7. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Arturo H; Chavan, Vishwas; King, Nick

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP) Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a) the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity) of a country; (b) the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c) the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most nonparticipant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. The BIP Index could potentially help in (a) identifying countries most likely to contribute to filling gaps in digitized

  8. Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Muir, Les; Boos, William R.; Studholme, Joshua

    2018-03-01

    Here we investigate tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates, focusing on the effect of reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient relevant to past equable climates and, potentially, to future climate change. Using a cloud-system resolving model that explicitly represents moist convection, we conduct idealized experiments on a zonally periodic equatorial β-plane stretching from nearly pole-to-pole and covering roughly one-fifth of Earth's circumference. To improve the representation of tropical cyclogenesis and mean climate at a horizontal resolution that would otherwise be too coarse for a cloud-system resolving model (15 km), we use the hypohydrostatic rescaling of the equations of motion, also called reduced acceleration in the vertical. The simulations simultaneously represent the Hadley circulation and the intertropical convergence zone, baroclinic waves in mid-latitudes, and a realistic distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), all without use of a convective parameterization. Using this model, we study the dependence of TCs on the meridional sea surface temperature gradient. When this gradient is significantly reduced, we find a substantial increase in the number of TCs, including a several-fold increase in the strongest storms of Saffir-Simpson categories 4 and 5. This increase occurs as the mid-latitudes become a new active region of TC formation and growth. When the climate warms we also see convergence between the physical properties and genesis locations of tropical and warm-core extra-tropical cyclones. While end-members of these types of storms remain very distinct, a large distribution of cyclones forming in the subtropics and mid-latitudes share properties of the two.

  9. Cenozoic dynamics of shallow-marine biodiversity in the Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuhara, M.; Iwatani, H.; Hunt, G.; Okahashi, H.; Kase, T.; Hayashi, H.; Irizuki, T.; Aguilar, Y. M.; Fernando, A. G. S.; Renema, W.

    2016-12-01

    Cenozoic dynamics of large-scale species diversity patterns remain poorly understood, especially for the Western Pacific, in part because of the paucity of well-dated fossil records from the tropics. Here we show the spatiotemporal dynamics of species diversity in the Western Pacific through the Cenozoic, focusing on the tropical Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) biodiversity hotspot. We analysed well-preserved fossil ostracodes from the tropical Western Pacific and combined their diversity data with other published data from the region to reconstruct Cenozoic dynamics of species diversity in the tropical- and northwestern Pacific Ocean. We fit generalized additive models to test for differences in richness over time and across geographic regions while accounting for sample size variation among samples. Low-, mid- and high-latitude regions all show a similar diversity trajectory: diversity is low in the Eocene and Oligocene, increases from the Early Miocene to the Plio-Pleistocene but then declines to the present day. Present day high biodiversity in these regions was established during the Pliocene with a remarkable diversification at that time. Latitudinal diversity patterns are relatively flat and never show as simple decline from the tropics to higher latitudes. Western Pacific Cenozoic ostracodes exhibit a spatiotemporal pattern of species diversity that is inconsistent with the commonly reported and persistent pattern of declining diversity from the tropics to the extratropics. While this inconsistency could be interpreted as evidence that ostracodes are a contrarian clade, Atlantic ostracodes display a standard latitudinal species diversity gradient. Contrasting patterns between oceans suggests an important role for regional factors (e.g., plate tectonics and temporal geomorphological dynamics) in shaping the biodiversity of the Western Pacific.

  10. Traditional African Knowledge In Biodiversity Conservation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The tropical forest ecosystem is one of the most important ecosystems of the world, because it contains a large proportion of the world's biodiversity and provides many environmental functions. Local communities have successfully conserved these resources that are of interest to them through laws and taboos. These range ...

  11. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia P G

    2015-10-01

    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation. © 2015 The Authors

  12. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2017-10-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  13. Land surface albedo bias in climate models and its association with tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Xavier J.; Boos, William R.

    2017-06-01

    The influence of surface albedo on tropical precipitation is widely appreciated, but albedo bias over snow-free areas in climate models has been studied little. Here historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are shown to exhibit large multimodel mean bias and intermodel variability in boreal summer mean surface broadband shortwave albedo. Intermodel variability in this albedo is globally coherent over vegetated regions and correlates with intermodel tropical precipitation variability. Evidence supports the hypothesis that these spatially coherent albedo variations cause precipitation variations. Specifically, spatial structures of albedo and precipitation variations are distinct, suggesting the latter do not cause the former by darkening soil. Furthermore, simulated interannual albedo variance is small compared to intermodel albedo variance, while the ratio of interannual to intermodel precipitation variance is much larger. Finally, imposing the dominant pattern of intermodel albedo variability in one climate model causes a precipitation change with structure similar to that of the intermodel variability.

  14. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  15. Biodiversity in rubber agroforests, carbon emissions, and rural livelihoods: An agent-based model of land-use dynamics in lowland Sumatra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Villamor, G.B.; Le, Q.B.; Djanibekov, U.; Noordwijk, van M.; Vlek, P.L.G.

    2014-01-01

    Rubber agroforests in the mostly deforested lowlands of Sumatra, Indonesia are threatened by conversion into monoculture rubber or oil palm plantations. We applied an agent-based model to explore the potential effectiveness of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) design through a biodiversity rich

  16. Dynamical system analysis of a low-order tropical cyclone model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Schönemann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone dynamics is investigated by means of a conceptual box model. The tropical cyclone (TC is divided into three regions, the eye, eyewall and ambient region. The model forms a low-order dynamical system of three ordinary differential equations. These are based on entropy budget equations comprising processes of surface enthalpy transfer, entropy advection, convection and radiative cooling. For tropical ocean parameter settings, the system possesses four non-trivial steady state solutions when the sea surface temperature (SST is above a critical value. Two steady states are unstable while the two remaining states are stable. Bifurcation diagrams provide an explanation why only finite-amplitude perturbations above a critical SST can transform into TCs. Besides SST, relative humidity of the ambient region forms an important model parameter. The surfaces that describe equilibria as a function of SST and relative humidity reveal a cusp-catastrophe where the two non-trivial equilibria split into four. Within the model regime of four equilibria, cyclogenesis becomes very unlikely due to the repelling and attracting effects of the two additional equilibria. The results are in qualitative agreement with observations and evince the relevance of the simple model approach to the dynamics of TC formation and its maximum potential intensity.

  17. Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

  18. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    linear 9 primitive equation model described in RMG04, modified here to include a 10 parameterization of diabatic heating. The model assumes a stably...10) 3 Note that Eq. (10) does not explicitly contain the PV source term derived from the 4 diabatic heating in the system (1)-(3). In the...dynamics of the vortex-shear interaction determines regions 12 favored for ascent. Diabatic heating is then organized within the envelope of upward 13

  19. Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

  20. Modeling the physical and biogeochemical response of a marine shelf system to a tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condie, S. A.; Herzfeld, M.; Margvelashvili, N.; Andrewartha, J. R.

    2009-11-01

    We describe the first use of a fully integrated biogeochemical model to explore the response of a marine shelf system to a tropical cyclone. Ocean currents, nutrients, sediments and plankton dynamics were simulated under conditions representative of Tropical Cyclone Bobby, which traversed the Australian North West Shelf in February 1995. Results show strong upwelling of nutrients and a phytoplankton bloom. While chlorophyll changes were similar to those estimated from satellite data in other coastal systems exposed to cyclonic conditions, the overall phytoplankton response was limited by cyclone induced sediment resuspension and the net contribution to annual primary production on the shelf was relatively small. In contrast, sediment loads exported off the shelf during Bobby were found to be more than 50 times modeled annual loads in years with little cyclone exposure and equivalent to at least 20 years of annual river-loads to the North West Shelf.

  1. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  2. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  3. Lacunarity as a texture measure for a tropical forest landscape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su, Haiping; Krummel, J.

    1996-01-01

    Fragmentation and loss of tropical forest cover alters terrestrial plant and animal population dynamics, reduces biodiversity and carbon storage capacity, and, as a global phenomenon could affect regional and global climate patterns. Lacunarity as a texture measure can offer a simple solution to characterize the texture of tropical forest landscape and determine spatial patterns associated with ecological processes. Lacunarity quantifies the deviation from translational invariance by describing the distribution of gaps within a binary image at multiple scales. As lacunarity increases, the spatial arrangement of tropical forest gaps will also increase. In this study, we used the Spatial Modeler in Imagine as a graphic programming tool to calculate lacunarity indices for a tropical forest landscape in Southern Mexico and Northern Guatemala. Lacunarity indices were derived from classified Landsat MSS images acquired in 1974 and 1984. Random-generated binary images were also used to derive lacunarity indices and compared with the lacunarity of forest patterns derived from the classified MSS images. Tropical forest area declined about 17%, with most of the forest areas converted into pasture/grassland for grazing. During this period, lacunarity increased about 25%. Results of this study suggest that tropical forest fragmentation could be quantified with lacunarity measures. The study also demonstrated that the Spatial Modeler can be useful as a programming tool to quantify spatial patterns of tropical forest landscape by using remotely sensed data.

  4. tree crown ratio models for tropical rainforests in oban division

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR ADESOPE

    habitat variable. It is often estimated using allometry. Modified versions of Logistics,. Richards, Weibull and Exponential functions were used to predict CR for ..... (ANOVA) were carried out to investigate significant differences in tree growth variables under different canopy layers. The mathematical model for the design is: 9.

  5. Southern hemisphere application of the Navy Nested Tropical Cyclone model

    OpenAIRE

    Peak, James E.; Elsberry, Russell L.

    1982-01-01

    This work was sponsored by the Naval Air Systems Command through the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, CA under Program Element 62759N, Project Number WF59-551, "Meteorology Models and Prediction". http://archive.org/details/southernhemisphe00peak NA

  6. (Tropical) soil organic matter modelling: problems and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, van H.

    2001-01-01

    Soil organic matter plays an important role in many physical, chemical and biological processes. However, the quantitative relations between the mineral and organic components of the soil and the relations with the vegetation are poorly understood. In such situations, the use of models is an

  7. Extrapolating carbon dynamics of tropical dry forests into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Waring, Bonnie; Vargas, German; Xu, Xiangtao; Smith, Christina; Becknell, Justin; Trierweiler, Annette; Brodribb, Timothy; Powers, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    Tropical dry forests occur in areas with warm temperatures and a pronounced dry season with little to no rainfall that lasts 3 to 7 months. The potential area covered by this biome is vast: globally, 47% of all forest occurs in tropical and subtropical latitudes, and of all tropical forests approximately 42% are classified as dry forests. Throughout the last several centuries, the area covered by tropical dry forests has been dramatically reduced through conversion to grazing and croplands, and they are now considered the most threatened tropical biome. However, in many regions, tropical dry forests are now growing back. There is growing concern that this recovery process will be strongly impacted by climate variability and change. Observations show that climate is changing in the seasonal tropics, and climate models forecast that neotropical dry forests will receive significantly less rainfall in the 21st century than in the 20th century. Rates of nitrogen deposition are also changing rapidly in this sector, and the fertility of some soils may still be recovering from past land use. We are engaged in several efforts to understand how water and nutrients limit the productivity of these forests, including manipulative experiments, modeling, and investigation of responses to natural climate variability. In 2015, at a well-characterized site in Guanacaste, Costa Rica, we established a full-factorial fertilization experiment with N and P in diverse mature forest stands. Initial responses highlight stronger ecosystem sensitivity to P addition than to N addition. Intriguingly, pre-experiment numerical simulations with a mechanistic ecosystem model had indicated the reverse. Work is ongoing to use field observations to better represent critical processes in the model, and ultimately to improve the model's sensitivity to nutrients and water. In addition, in 2016, we established a full factorial nutrient addition and drought experiment in plantations. Thus far, soil

  8. The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Barber, Mary C.; Adams, Mark; Agboola, Julius I.; Allen, Edith B.; Bealey, William J.; Bobbink, Roland; Bobrovsky, Maxim V.; Bowman, William D.; Branquinho, Cristina; Bustamente, Mercedes M. C.; Clark, Christopher M.; Cocking, Edward C.; Cruz, Cristina; Davidson, Eric A.; Denmead, O. Tom; Dias, Teresa; Dise, Nancy B.; Feest, Alan; Galloway, James N.; Geiser, Linda H.; Gilliam, Frank S.; Harrison, Ian J.; Khanina, Larisa G.; Lu, Xiankai; Manrique, Esteban; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Ometto, Jean P. H. B.; Payne, Richard; Scheuschner, Thomas; Sheppard, Lucy J.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Singh, Y. V.; Stevens, Carly J.; Strachan, Ian; Sverdrup, Harald; Tokuchi, Naoko; van Dobben, Hans; Woodin, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    This chapter reports the findings of a Working Group on how atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects both terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity. Regional and global scale impacts on biodiversity are addressed, together with potential indicators. Key conclusions are that: the rates of loss in biodiversity are greatest at the lowest and initial stages of N deposition increase; changes in species compositions are related to the relative amounts of N, carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) in the plant soil system; enhanced N inputs have implications for C cycling; N deposition is known to be having adverse effects on European and North American vegetation composition; very little is known about tropical ecosystem responses, while tropical ecosystems are major biodiversity hotspots and are increasingly recipients of very high N deposition rates; N deposition alters forest fungi and mycorrhyzal relations with plants; the rapid response of forest fungi and arthropods makes them good indicators of change; predictive tools (models) that address ecosystem scale processes are necessary to address complex drivers and responses, including the integration of N deposition, climate change and land use effects; criteria can be identified for projecting sensitivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to N deposition. Future research and policy-relevant recommendations are identified.

  9. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, Georgina M.; Mouillot, David; Vause, James; Walpole, Matt

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth’s human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum—as well as opposition—is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem’s long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify ‘biodiversity services’ in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach. PMID:27928040

  10. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Nathalie; Mace, Georgina M; Naeem, Shahid; Tobias, Joseph A; Pigot, Alex L; Cavanagh, Rachel; Mouillot, David; Vause, James; Walpole, Matt

    2016-12-14

    Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth's human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum-as well as opposition-is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem's long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify 'biodiversity services' in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. Scale Interactions in the Tropics from a Simple Multi-Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, X.; Biello, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Our lack of a complete understanding of the interaction between the moisture convection and equatorial waves remains an impediment in the numerical simulation of large-scale organization, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The aim of this project is to understand interactions across spatial scales in the tropics from a simplified framework for scale interactions while a using a simplified framework to describe the basic features of moist convection. Using multiple asymptotic scales, Biello and Majda[1] derived a multi-scale model of moist tropical dynamics (IMMD[1]), which separates three regimes: the planetary scale climatology, the synoptic scale waves, and the planetary scale anomalies regime. The scales and strength of the observed MJO would categorize it in the regime of planetary scale anomalies - which themselves are forced from non-linear upscale fluxes from the synoptic scales waves. In order to close this model and determine whether it provides a self-consistent theory of the MJO. A model for diabatic heating due to moist convection must be implemented along with the IMMD. The multi-cloud parameterization is a model proposed by Khouider and Majda[2] to describe the three basic cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) that are most responsible for tropical diabatic heating. We implement a simplified version of the multi-cloud model that is based on results derived from large eddy simulations of convection [3]. We present this simplified multi-cloud model and show results of numerical experiments beginning with a variety of convective forcing states. Preliminary results on upscale fluxes, from synoptic scales to planetary scale anomalies, will be presented. [1] Biello J A, Majda A J. Intraseasonal multi-scale moist dynamics of the tropical atmosphere[J]. Communications in Mathematical Sciences, 2010, 8(2): 519-540. [2] Khouider B, Majda A J. A simple multicloud parameterization for convectively coupled tropical waves. Part I: Linear analysis

  12. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  13. Tropical Rainforest responses to climatic changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, M.B. [Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Flenley, J.R. [Massey Univ. (New Zealand). School of People, Environment and Planning

    2007-07-01

    The goal of this book is to provide a current overview of the impacts of climate change on tropical forests, to investigate past, present, and future climatic influences on the ecosystems with the highest biodiversity on the planet. ''Tropical Rainforest Responses to Climatic Change'' will be the first book to examine how tropical rain forest ecology is altered by climate change, rather than simply seeing how plant communities were altered. Shifting the emphasis onto ecological processes e.g. how diversity is structured by climate and the subsequent impact on tropical forest ecology, provides the reader with a more comprehensive coverage. A major theme of this book that emerges progressively is the interaction between humans, climate and forest ecology. While numerous books have appeared dealing with forest fragmentation and conservation, none have explicitly explored the long term occupation of tropical systems, the influence of fire and the future climatic effects of deforestation, coupled with anthropogenic emissions. Incorporating modelling of past and future systems paves the way for a discussion of conservation from a climatic perspective, rather than the usual plea to stop logging. (orig.)

  14. Eco-hydrological modeling in a tropical area of Vietnam using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hoang Khanh, Linh; Renchin, Tsolmon

    2016-04-01

    The tropical area of Vietnam is suffering from mismanagement of water and land resources which leads to rising floods, surface runoff and soil erosion. We used an eco-hydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in Aluoi district as a representative case study of Central Vietnam. In addition to water balance calculation we simulated the flooding behavior on a single severe event (16th October 2007) by SWAT model. The model was calibrated based on multi-objective functions for stream flow and actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Nevertheless, observed stream flow was predicted by a regionalization approach and Eta-data were derived from MODIS time-series. The results of calibration and validation of model were pretty good with a high Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.72 and 0.82 for river discharge and 0.77 and 0.79 for ETa, respectively. The monthly average of eight-year simulation (2006-2013) showed that the highest surface runoff occurred in October while the ratio of ETa /rainfall is the lowest, and the lowest surface runoff happened in February when the ratio of Eta /rainfall is the highest. The flooding behavior revealed that the peak flow was under predicted about 10 percent, roughly 1331 m3/s. However, the water depth was estimated approximately 7.5 m in the Main River. This water-level generated overflow of the river banks and led to inundation of land and endangered infrastructure and human life in downstream areas. Hence, best management practices (e.g. Terracing) are recommended to reduce surface runoff and flooding forces in Aluoi district of Vietnam.

  15. Agent-based modeling for the landuse change of hunter-gather societies and the impacts on biodiversity in Guyana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamura, T.; Fragoso, J.; Lambin, E.

    2012-12-01

    The interactions with animals are vital to the Amerindian, indigenous people, of Rupunini savannah-forest in Guyana. Their connections extend from basic energy and protein resource to spiritual bonding through "paring" to a certain animal in the forest. We collected extensive dataset of 23 indigenous communities for 3.5 years, consisting 9900 individuals from 1307 households, as well as animal observation data in 8 transects per communities (47,000 data entries). In this presentation, our research interest is to model the driver of land use change of the indigenous communities and its impacts on the ecosystem in the Rupunini area under global change. Overarching question we would like to answer with this program is to find how and why "tipping-point" from hunting gathering society to the agricultural society occurs in the future. Secondary question is what is the implication of the change to agricultural society in terms of biodiversity and carbon stock in the area, and eventually the well-being of Rupunini people. To answer the questions regarding the society shift in agriculture activities, we built as simulation with Agent-Based Modeling (Multi Agents Simulation). We developed this simulation by using Netlogo, the programming environment specialized for spatially explicit agent-based modeling (ABM). This simulation consists of four different process in the Rupunini landscape; forest succession, animal population growth, hunting of animals, and land clearing for agriculture. All of these processes are carried out by a set of computational unit, called "agents". In this program, there are four types of agents - patches, villages, households, and animals. Here, we describe the impacts of hunting on the biodiversity based on actual demographic data from one village named Crush Water. Animal population within the hunting territory of the village stabilized but Agouti/Paca dominates the landscape with little population of armadillos and peccaries. White-tailed deers

  16. Arthropod diversity in a tropical forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basset, Yves; Cizek, Lukas; Cuénoud, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic......,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates...

  17. A universal approach to estimate biomass and carbon stock in tropical forests using generic allometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieilledent, G; Vaudry, R; Andriamanohisoa, S F D; Rakotonarivo, O S; Randrianasolo, H Z; Razafindrabe, H N; Rakotoarivony, C Bidaud; Ebeling, J; Rasamoelina, M

    2012-03-01

    Allometric equations allow aboveground tree biomass and carbon stock to be estimated from tree size. The allometric scaling theory suggests the existence of a universal power-law relationship between tree biomass and tree diameter with a fixed scaling exponent close to 8/3. In addition, generic empirical models, like Chave's or Brown's models, have been proposed for tropical forests in America and Asia. These generic models have been used to estimate forest biomass and carbon worldwide. However, tree allometry depends on environmental and genetic factors that vary from region to region. Consequently, theoretical models that include too few ecological explicative variables or empirical generic models that have been calibrated at particular sites are unlikely to yield accurate tree biomass estimates at other sites. In this study, we based our analysis on a destructive sample of 481 trees in Madagascar spiny dry and moist forests characterized by a high rate of endemism (> 95%). We show that, among the available generic allometric models, Chave's model including diameter, height, and wood specific gravity as explicative variables for a particular forest type (dry, moist, or wet tropical forest) was the only one that gave accurate tree biomass estimates for Madagascar (R2 > 83%, bias allometric models. When biomass allometric models are not available for a given forest site, this result shows that a simple height-diameter allometry is needed to accurately estimate biomass and carbon stock from plot inventories.

  18. Earth System Modeling Tested for CLM4.5 in a Costa Rican Tropical Montane Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Miller, G. R.; Cahill, A. T.; Aparecido, L. M. T.; Moore, G. W.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems in the tropics are important for global carbon and water cycling, which makes modeling of their land-surface processes essential for accurate understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, modeling of tropical regions, especially mountainous ones, is known to be subject to significant errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration. Our previous work has highlighted the effects of the prolonged wetness experienced by such sites, focusing on carbon and water exchange at the leaf/stand level. Here, we explore the implications these findings have for modeling at the stand/canopy scale. This study examined the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) against measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4,000 mm of mean annual precipitation. Measurements include leaf temperatures, transpiration (sap flows), fluxes via eddy-covariance, and vertical profiles of H2O and CO2 concentrations, micrometeorological variables, and leaf wetness. In this work, results from point-scale CLM4.5 were compared to canopy data. The model fails to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). We found that soil and leaf temperatures were overestimated (≈ +2°C) at noon and underestimated (≈ -1°C) during the night; daily transpiration was approximately double than that observed. Simulated leaf wetness deviated significantly from the measurements, both in timing and extent, which affected temperatures and evapotranspiration partitioning. Slope effects appeared in the average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux from actual data but were not captured in CLM. Our investigation indicated that interception and aerodynamic resistance models contribute to model errors, suggesting potential improvements for modeling in very wet and/or mountainous regions.

  19. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  20. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  1. Interactions between a tropical mixed boundary layer and cumulus convection in a radiative-convective model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dean, Caryn L. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    This report details a radiative-convective model, combining previously developed cumulus, stable cloud and radiation parameterizations with a boundary layer scheme, which was developed in the current study. The cloud model was modified to incorporate the effects of both small and large clouds. The boundary layer model was adapted from a mixed layer model was only slightly modified to couple it with the more sophisticated cloud model. The model was tested for a variety of imposed divergence profiles, which simulate the regions of the tropical ocean from approximately the intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the subtropical high region. The sounding used to initialize the model for most of the runs is from the trade wind region of ATEX. For each experiment, the model was run with a timestep of 300 seconds for a period of 7 days.

  2. Tropical Tree Trait Diversity Enhances Forest Biomass Resilience in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakschewski, B.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.; Poorter, L.; Pena-Claros, M.; Boit, A.

    2016-12-01

    Functional diversity of ecosystems has been found to increase ecosystem functions and therefore enhance ecosystem resilience against environmental stressors. However, global carbon-cycle and biosphere models still classify the global vegetation into a relatively small number of distinct plant functional types (PFT) with constant features over space and time. Therefore, those models might underestimate the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural vegetation under climate change by ignoring positive effects that functional diversity might bring about. We diversified a set a of selected tree traits in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL). In the new subversion, called LPJmL-FIT, Amazon region biomass stocks and forest structure appear significantly more resilient against climate change. Enhanced tree trait diversity enables the simulated rainforests to adjust to new environmental conditions via ecological sorting. These results may stimulate a new debate on the value of biodiversity for climate change mitigation.

  3. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  4. Diversity, Biodiversity, Conservation, and Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao Carlos Marques

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of diversity and biodiversity are analysed regarding their historical emergence, and their intrinsic meaning and differences are discussed. Through a brief synopsis, difficulties usually experienced by statisticians in capturing the dynamics of diversity are analysed and main problems identified. The shift from diversity to the more holistic biodiversity as a working concept is appraised in terms of the novelty involved. Through a number of examples, the way the two concepts capture natural cyclic changes is analysed, and their reciprocal and complementary relations are approached theoretically. The way diversity could develop from the stores of biodiversity as its active expression through selective and evolutionary processes is described. Through the use of a very simple dynamic model, the concepts of diversity and biodiversity are analysed in extremely opposite hypothetical scenarios. Comparisons with natural situations are made and the theoretical implications from the conservation point of view are discussed. These support the opinion that conservation undertaken in restricted and protected areas is not self-sustainable, needing permanent external intervention to regulate internal processes, and in the long run will most probably lead in the direction of obsolescence and extinction. Finally, the relations between diversity, biodiversity, and sustainability are approached. The vagueness of the sustainability concept is discussed. Preservation of biodiversity is then defended as one of the best available indicators to assist us in fixing boundaries which may help to provide a more precise definition of sustainability.

  5. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  6. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  7. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  8. Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D

  9. Biodiversity, greenhouse gas and economic trade-offs from biochar use: a 20 year model of biochar use in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathorne-Hardy, A.

    2014-12-01

    Biochar is promoted for its carbon storage and soil amendment properties, but there remains a research gap into wider sustainability implications of biochar use. Without these there is a risk that biochar use could deliver negative unforeseen consequences. Key to biochar sustainability is the feedstock sustainability, which in developed nations can be novel due to the ability to process biomass locally. Using field trial data and primary biodiversity assessments we modelled different sustainability indicators (local GHG balance, global GHG balance, local biodiversity, global biodiversity and local economic return) associated with four different biochar feedstocks (woodlands, hedgerows, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) and straw) over 20 years for UK arable agriculture. Global measures included Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC). Our results showed that trade-offs are inherent. Local GHG emissions are reduced by use of straw and SRC, and increased through the use of woodlands. In contrast all feedstocks reduced the global GHG emissions. Local biodiversity was increased through use of hedgerows, woodlands, SRC and low fertiliser rates. Global biodiversity was maximised through high fertiliser rates and use of all feedstocks. Critically economic return was maximised through high use of woodland and straw, and substantially reduced when hedgerows or SRC is used as feedstock. The introduction of high (£52 t-1 CO2) and low (£11.44 t-1 CO2) carbon prices were never enough to shift a system between loss and profit. This research demonstrates that the sustainability of biochar varies substantially depending on the scale (local or global) and the breadth of indicators included. Ultimately biochar is designed to have a role in solving global problems, but the decisions determining use will be made locally. Regulation to ensure biochar is used appropriately may be necessary.

  10. The Smithsonian-led Marine Global Earth Observatory (MarineGEO): Proposed Model for a Collaborative Network Linking Marine Biodiversity to Ecosystem Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, J. E.

    2016-02-01

    Biodiversity - the variety of functional types of organisms - is the engine of marine ecosystem processes, including productivity, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Biodiversity remains a black box in much of ocean science, despite wide recognition that effectively managing human interactions with marine ecosystems requires understanding both structure and functional consequences of biodiversity. Moreover, the inherent complexity of biological systems puts a premium on data-rich, comparative approaches, which are best met via collaborative networks. The Smithsonian Institution's MarineGEO program links a growing network of partners conducting parallel, comparative research to understand change in marine biodiversity and ecosystems, natural and anthropogenic drivers of that change, and the ecological processes mediating it. The focus is on nearshore, seabed-associated systems where biodiversity and human population are concentrated and interact most, yet which fall through the cracks of existing ocean observing programs. MarineGEO offers a standardized toolbox of research modules that efficiently capture key elements of biological diversity and its importance in ecological processes across a range of habitats. The toolbox integrates high-tech (DNA-based, imaging) and low-tech protocols (diver surveys, rapid assays of consumer activity) adaptable to differing institutional capacity and resources. The model for long-term sustainability involves leveraging in-kind support among partners, adoption of best practices wherever possible, engagement of students and citizen scientists, and benefits of training, networking, and global relevance as incentives for participation. Here I highlight several MarineGEO comparative research projects demonstrating the value of standardized, scalable assays and parallel experiments for measuring fish and invertebrate diversity, recruitment, benthic herbivory and generalist predation, decomposition, and carbon sequestration. Key

  11. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  12. How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Sinclair

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species' distributions under future climates to inform management strategies. As government scientists with a responsibility to communicate the best available science to our policy colleagues, we question whether current modeling approaches and outputs are practically useful. Here, we synthesize conceptual problems with species distribution models (SDMs associated with interspecific interactions, dispersal, ecological equilibria and time lags, evolution, and the sampling of niche space. Although projected SDMs have undoubtedly been critical in alerting us to the magnitude of climate change impacts, we conclude that until they offer insights that are more precise than what we can derive from basic ecological theory, we question their utility in deciding how to allocate scarce funds to large-scale conservation projects.

  13. Biodiversity and soil quality in agroecosystems: the use of a qualitative multi-attribute model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortet, J.; Bohanec, M.; Griffiths, B.

    2009-01-01

    In ecological impact assessment, special emphasis is put on soil biology and estimating soil quality from the observed biological parameters. The aim of this study is to propose a tool easy to use for scientists and decision makers for agroecosystems soil quality assessment using these biological...... parameters. This tool was developed as a collaboration between ECOGEN (www.ecogen.dk) soil experts and decision analysts. Methodologically, we have addressed this goal using model-based Decision Support Systems (DSS), taking the approach of qualitative multi-attribute modelling. The approach is based...... on developing various hierarchical multiattribute models that consist of qualitative attributes and utility (aggregation) functions, represented by decision rules. The assessment of soil quality is based on two main indicators: (1) soil diversity (assessed through microfauna, mesofauna and macrofauna richness...

  14. Tropical Peat Swamp Management Options: A Case Study Using System Dynamic in Southern Aceh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aswandi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical peat forest ecosystems have multiple benefits as regulating hydrological system, carbon storage, timber and non-timber products, and protecting the biodiversity. Lack of understanding of these functions, short-term economic benefits is more preferable despite reducing its ecological benefits. This study proposed a system dynamics model of tropical peat forest ecosystem in determining its optimum management for extractive utilizations (timber and non-timber forest products, environmental services, and biodiversity. A dynamics model was used to describe changes in peatland and forest cover, biomass accumulation and carbon storage, and total economic value of tropical peat forest ecosystem in Trumon and Singkil, Southern Aceh. The projection showed that peat forest ecosystem benefits would decline in the long term if degradations continue at the same rate over last decade. Efforts to change the primary peat forest to plantation would reduce the total economic value of ecosystem and biodiversity values at level -19.63% and -26.28% from current conditions. Carbon emissions were increased at 117.32 ton CO2 eq ha-1 year-1, higher than average of carbon losses from peatland oxidation. Preserving 50% of forest vegetation on moderate depth and protection very deep peatlands would reduce emission -6.96% to -35.06% and increase forest carbon storage at significant rate +15.06% to +63.32%, respectively. These mitigation schemes would improve the biodiversity and hydrological function. Forest rehabilitation with agroforestry practices will enhance carbon uptake, especially on degraded lands.

  15. MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brack, Werner; Bakker, Joop; de Deckere, Eric; Deerenberg, Charlotte; van Gils, Jos; Hein, Michaela; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, Bas; Lamoree, Marja; Lek, Sovan; López de Alda, Maria Jose; Marcomini, Antonio; Muñoz, Isabel; Rattei, Silke; Segner, Helmut; Thomas, Kevin; von der Ohe, Peter Carsten; Westrich, Bernhard; de Zwart, Dick; Schmitt-Jansen, Mechthild

    2005-09-01

    Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites. Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data

  16. Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Raia, Pasquale; Toivonen, Jaakko

    2015-12-01

    The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

  17. Habitat allocation to maximize biodiversity: a technical description of the HAMBO model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, R.A.; Rudrum, D.P.

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of spatial allocations of nature conservation, it is necessary that a benchmark allocation can be known that achieves the maximum ecological value at given costs. This calls for an optimisation model that takes into consideration the main ecological considerations,

  18. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-06-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumkar, Yogesh V.; Sen, P. N.; Chaudhari, Hemankumar S.; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, an attempt has been made to conduct a numerical experiment with the high-resolution global model GME to predict the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean during the year 2007. Numerical integrations using the icosahedral hexagonal grid point global model GME were performed to study the evolution of tropical cyclones, viz., Akash, Gonu, Yemyin and Sidr over North Indian Ocean during 2007. It has been seen that the GME model forecast underestimates cyclone's intensity, but the model can capture the evolution of cyclone's intensity especially its weakening during landfall, which is primarily due to the cutoff of the water vapor supply in the boundary layer as cyclones approach the coastal region. A series of numerical simulation of tropical cyclones have been performed with GME to examine model capability in prediction of intensity and track of the cyclones. The model performance is evaluated by calculating the root mean square errors as cyclone track errors.

  20. The influence of environmental forcing on biodiversity and extinction in a resource competition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakulenko, Sergey A.; Sudakov, Ivan; Mander, Luke

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we study a model of many species that compete, directly or indirectly, for a pool of common resources under the influence of periodic, stochastic, and/or chaotic environmental forcing. Using numerical simulations, we find the number and sequence of species going extinct when the community is initially packed with a large number of species of random initial densities. Thereby, any species with a density below a given threshold is regarded to be extinct.

  1. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  2. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  3. Understanding and Modeling Tropical Grasslands Using Remotely Sensed Fluorescence and Soil Moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D.; Denning, S.; Baker, I. T.; Haynes, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal grasslands account for a large area of Earth's land cover. Annual and seasonal changes in these grasslands have profound impacts on Earth's carbon, energy, and water cycles. In tropical grasslands, growth is commonly water-limited and the landscape oscillates between highly productive and unproductive. As the monsoon begins, soils moisten providing dry grasses the water necessary to photosynthesize. However, along with seasonal rains come clouds that obscure satellite products (MODIS fPAR/LAI) that are commonly used to quantify phenology and productivity in these areas. To mitigate this issue, we used solar induced fluorescence (SIF) products from GOSAT, GOME-2, and OCO-2 along with soil moisture products from SMAP which see through the clouds to monitor grassland productivity. To get a broader understanding of the vegetation dynamics, we used the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) to simulate the seasonal cycles of vegetation. In conjunction with SiB, the remotely sensed SIF and soil moisture observations were utilized to paint a clearer picture of seasonal productivity in tropical grasslands. We focused on the growing season onset and senescence of vegetation in both SiB and remotely sensed observations. We investigated the threshold relationships between observed soil moisture and SIF during these "green-up" and "brown-down" periods. SIF and SMAP provide an unprecedented number of observations of these transitions and revealed substantial model biases in the treatment of grassland phenology. Comparing the observed thresholds to model phenology allowed us to improve SiB to more accurately represent the carbon cycle in tropical grasslands across the world.

  4. Biodiversity impact assessment (BIA+) - methodological framework for screening biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Lisa; Pflugmacher, Stephan; Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    For the past 20 years, the life cycle assessment (LCA) community has sought to integrate impacts on biodiversity into the LCA framework. However, existing impact assessment methods still fail to do so comprehensively because they quantify only a few impacts related to specific species and regions. This paper proposes a methodological framework that will allow LCA practitioners to assess currently missing impacts on biodiversity on a global scale. Building on existing models that seek to quantify the impacts of human activities on biodiversity, the herein proposed methodological framework consists of 2 components: a habitat factor for 14 major habitat types and the impact on the biodiversity status in those major habitat types. The habitat factor is calculated by means of indicators that characterize each habitat. The biodiversity status depends on parameters from impact categories. The impact functions, relating these different parameters to a given response in the biodiversity status, rely on expert judgments. To ensure the applicability for LCA practitioners, the components of the framework can be regionalized on a country scale for which LCA inventory data is more readily available. The weighting factors for the 14 major habitat types range from 0.63 to 1.82. By means of area weighting of the major habitat types in a country, country-specific weighting factors are calculated. In order to demonstrate the main part of the framework, examples of impact functions are given for the categories "freshwater eutrophication" and "freshwater ecotoxicity" in 1 major habitat type. The results confirm suitability of the methodological framework. The major advantages are the framework's user-friendliness, given that data can be used from LCA databases directly, and the complete inclusion of all levels of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). It is applicable for the whole world and a wide range of impact categories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:282-297.

  5. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  6. Livestock biodiversity and sustainability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, I.

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable development equally includes environmental protection including biodiversity, economic growth and social equity, both within and between generations. The paper first reviews different aspects related to the sustainable use of livestock biodiversity and property regimes that influence

  7. Biodiversity in the Marketplace

    OpenAIRE

    Geoffrey Heal

    2000-01-01

    What is the nature of biodiversity as an economic commodity and why does it matter? How would its conservation contribute economically to our well-being? In this article, Geoffrey Heal considers three issues: Why is biodiversity important from an economic perspective? What kind of commodity is it? Does our usual economic mechanism, the market system, have the capacity to appreciate the economic value of biodiversity? The author first tries to characterize biodiversity from an economic perspec...

  8. Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    David Pearce

    2005-01-01

    Biodiversity is important for human wellbeing, but it is declining. Measures to conserve biodiversity are essential but may be a waste of effort if several paradoxes are not addressed. The highest levels of diversity are in nations least able to practise effective conservation. The flow of funds to international biodiversity conservation appears trivial when compared to the scale of biodiversity loss. International agreements may not actually protect or conserve more than what would have been...

  9. Rio+20, biodiversity marginalized

    OpenAIRE

    Carrière, Stéphanie M.; Rodary, Estienne; Méral, Philippe; Serpantié, Georges; Boisvert, Valérie; Kull, C.A.; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Lhoutellier, Louise; Moizo, Bernard; Smektala, G.; Vandevelde, Jean-Christophe

    2013-01-01

    At the Rio+20 Conference (June 2012), the biodiversity conservation agenda was subsumed into broader environmental issues like sustainable development, “green economy,” and climate change. This shoehorning of biodiversity issues is concomitant with a trend toward market-based instruments and toward standardized biodiversity assessment and monitoring. This article raises concern that these trends can marginalize important and specific aspects of biodiversity governance, including other policy ...

  10. Introducing tropical lianas in a vegetation model, methods and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeeck, Hans; di Porcia, Manfredo; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Longo, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, commonly constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species and contributing substantially to forest leaf biomass. Lianas compete strongly with trees for both above- and below-ground resources. Their indirect impact on the carbon balance, due to their influence on tree community dynamics (by increasing mortality and suppressing tree growth), is far larger than their direct contribution to biomass. Currently tropical forests are experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. The goal of this work is to include lianas in a vegetation model and to test it against experimental data. For the purpose we chose ED2 (Ecosystem Demography model version 2), a model that occupies the midpoint on the continuum from gap models that contain individual trees, to area-based global models. ED2 explicitly tracks horizontal and vertical heterogeneity in canopy structure making it very suitable to study liana impacts at a large scale. At the same time, the very inner structure of the model, that is its spatial implicitness, constraints the programming design of this new liana PFT. The first part of the presentation will focus on the current representation of lianas in ED2 and the parameterization that has been used. We will provide reference to the available literature to justify the choices made for parameters and allometries. In the second part first results will be shown where we compare the output of the model with data collected in the Paracou site (French Guiana). The data comes from both inventories and fluxtowers. We will focus mainly on plant density, diameter distributions (demography) and carbon/water fluxes. By comparing runs starting from bare ground, rus starting from observed

  11. Climate Model Simulations of Tropical and Polar Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Cooling but Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G.

    2007-12-01

    In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed call for geoengineering "solutions" involving injecting particles into the stratosphere or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. Here we describe different proposed geoengineering designs, and then show climate model calculations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean NASA GISS ModelE GCM that evaluate both their efficacy and their possible adverse consequences. We conduct experiments by simulating global warming with and without continuous emissions of sulfate aerosol precursors both into the tropical lower stratosphere and into the high latitude Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. We find that while stratospheric aerosols can cool the planet on a global average basis with tropical emissions or cool the Northern Hemisphere with high latitude emissions, there are also large regional climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with large areas of drought. At the current level of understanding, there are too many potential problems with geoengineering, and it would be much cheaper and easier to solve the global warming problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These problems include cost, continued ocean acidification, obtaining global agreement on the optimum climate, regional climate changes, ozone depletion, reduction of solar energy for power generation, and unexpected consequences.

  12. Biodiversity and globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Heal, Geoffrey

    2002-01-01

    Reduction of the earth’s biodiversity as a result of human activities is a matter of great concern to prominent scientists. What are the economic aspects of this loss? In economic terms, what is biodiversity and why might it matter? And is the loss of biodiversity in any way connected with globalization of the economy?

  13. Knowing Agricultural Biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Mulvany, P.

    2001-01-01

    The term "agricultural biodiversity" is relatively recent, perhaps post-CBD. Although, the specific nature of the biodiversity used by people was recognised for a long time, the overwhelming emphasis in the CBD was on general biodiversity, mainly 'wild' flora and fauna that inhabit this fragile biosphere in which people also live.

  14. Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chave, Jérôme; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Búrquez, Alberto; Chidumayo, Emmanuel; Colgan, Matthew S; Delitti, Welington B C; Duque, Alvaro; Eid, Tron; Fearnside, Philip M; Goodman, Rosa C; Henry, Matieu; Martínez-Yrízar, Angelina; Mugasha, Wilson A; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Nelson, Bruce W; Ngomanda, Alfred; Nogueira, Euler M; Ortiz-Malavassi, Edgar; Pélissier, Raphaël; Ploton, Pierre; Ryan, Casey M; Saldarriaga, Juan G; Vieilledent, Ghislain

    2014-10-01

    Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Evaluation of the Utility of Static and Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Problems in a Spectral Element Shallow Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-09

    Refinement for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Problems in a Spectral Element Shallow Water Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...amined for idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in a spectral element f-plane shallow water model. The SMR simulations have varying sizes of...adaptive mesh refinement1 for idealized tropical cyclone problems in a spectral element2 shallow water model3 Eric A. Hendricks ∗ Marine Meteorology Division

  16. Digital Geogames to Foster Local Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Sonja; Schaal, Steffen; Lude, Armin

    2015-01-01

    The valuing of biodiversity is considered to be a first step towards its conservation. Therefore, the aim of the BioDiv2Go project is to combine sensuous experiences discovering biodiversity with mobile technology and a game-based learning approach. Following the competence model for environmental education (Roczen et al, 2014), Geogames (location…

  17. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  18. Atlantic tropical cyclones water budget in observations and CNRM-CM5 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Douville, Hervé; Ribes, Aurélien

    2017-12-01

    Water budgets in tropical cyclones (TCs) are computed in the ERA-interim (ERAI) re-analysis and the CNRM-CM5 model for the late 20th and 21st centuries. At a 6-hourly timescale and averaged over a 5° × 5° box around a TC center, the main contribution to rainfall is moisture convergence, with decreasing contribution of evaporation for increasing rainfall intensities. It is found that TC rainfall in ERAI and the model are underestimated when compared with the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), probably due to underestimated TC winds in ERAI vs. observed TCs. It is also found that relative increase in TC rainfall between the second half of the 20th and 21st centuries may surpass the rate of change suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron formula. It may even reach twice this rate for reduced spatial domains corresponding to the highest cyclonic rainfall. This is in agreement with an expected positive feedback between TC rainfall intensity and dynamics.

  19. MODELKEY - Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brack, W.; Bakker, J.; de Deckere, E.; Deerenberg, C.; van Gils, J.; Hein, M.; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, B.; Lamoree, M.; Lek, S.; de Alda, M. J. L.; Marcomini, A.; Munoz, I.; Rattei, S.; Segner, H.; Thomas, K.; von der Ohe, P. C.; Westrich, B.; de Zwart, D.; Schmitt-Jansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2005), s. 252-256 ISSN 0944-1344 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : biodiversity * EU-Projects * fish communities Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2005

  20. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  1. Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204

  2. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  3. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  4. Biogeochemical mass balances in a turbid tropical reservoir. Field data and modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Doan, Thuy Kim; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Schmid, Martin

    2014-05-01

    The turbid tropical Cointzio reservoir, located in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), behaves as a warm monomictic water body (area = 6 km2, capacity 66 Mm3, residence time ~ 1 year). It is strategic for the drinking water supply of the city of Morelia, capital of the state of Michoacán, and for downstream irrigation during the dry season. This reservoir is a perfect example of a human-impacted system since its watershed is mainly composed of degraded volcanic soils and is subjected to high erosion processes and agricultural loss. The reservoir is threatened by sediment accumulation and nutrients originating from untreated waters in the upstream watershed. The high content of very fine clay particles and the lack of water treatment plants lead to serious episodes of eutrophication (up to 70 μg chl. a L-1), high levels of turbidity (Secchi depth water vertical profiles, reservoir inflow and outflow) we determined suspended sediment (SS), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mass balances. Watershed SS yields were estimated at 35 t km2 y-1 of which 89-92 % were trapped in the Cointzio reservoir. As a consequence the reservoir has already lost 25 % of its initial storage capacity since its construction in 1940. Nutrient mass balances showed that 50 % and 46 % of incoming P and N were retained by sedimentation, and mainly eliminated through denitrification respectively. Removal of C by 30 % was also observed both by sedimentation and through gas emission. To complete field data analyses we examined the ability of vertical one dimensional (1DV) numerical models (Aquasim biogeochemical model coupled with k-ɛ mixing model) to reproduce the main biogeochemical cycles in the Cointzio reservoir. The model can describe all the mineralization processes both in the water column and in the sediment. The values of the entire mass balance of nutrients and of the mineralization rates (denitrification and aerobic benthic mineralization) calculated from the model

  5. The ENSO Effects on Tropical Clouds and Top-of-Atmosphere Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Wenying; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

  6. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  7. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  8. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  9. Evaluation of a non-point source pollution model, AnnAGNPS, in a tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, V.; Fares, A.; Kubo, D.; Jacobi, J.; Smith, C.

    2007-01-01

    Impaired water quality caused by human activity and the spread of invasive plant and animal species has been identified as a major factor of degradation of coastal ecosystems in the tropics. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS (Annualized Non-Point Source Pollution Model), in simulating runoff and soil erosion in a 48 km2 watershed located on the Island of Kauai, Hawaii. The model was calibrated and validated using 2 years of observed stream flow and sediment load data. Alternative scenarios of spatial rainfall distribution and canopy interception were evaluated. Monthly runoff volumes predicted by AnnAGNPS compared well with the measured data (R2 = 0.90, P < 0.05); however, up to 60% difference between the actual and simulated runoff were observed during the driest months (May and July). Prediction of daily runoff was less accurate (R2 = 0.55, P < 0.05). Predicted and observed sediment yield on a daily basis was poorly correlated (R2 = 0.5, P < 0.05). For the events of small magnitude, the model generally overestimated sediment yield, while the opposite was true for larger events. Total monthly sediment yield varied within 50% of the observed values, except for May 2004. Among the input parameters the model was most sensitive to the values of ground residue cover and canopy cover. It was found that approximately one third of the watershed area had low sediment yield (0-1 t ha-1 y-1), and presented limited erosion threat. However, 5% of the area had sediment yields in excess of 5 t ha-1 y-1. Overall, the model performed reasonably well, and it can be used as a management tool on tropical watersheds to estimate and compare sediment loads, and identify "hot spots" on the landscape. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  11. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  12. Maximizing Amazonia's Ecosystem Services: Juggling the potential for carbon storage, agricultural yield and biodiversity in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, C. S.; Foley, J. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Polasky, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon is not only an exceptionally biodiverse and carbon-rich tract of tropical forest, it is also a case study in land use change. Over the next forty years it will continue to experience pressure from an urbanizing and increasingly affluent populace: under a business-as-usual scenario, global cropland, pasture and biofuels systems will carry on expanding, while the Amazon's carbon storage potential will likely become another viable revenue source under REDD+. Balancing those competing land use pressures ought also take into account Amazonia's high - but heterogeneous - biodiversity. Knowing where Amazonia has opportunities to make efficient or optimal trade offs between carbon storage, agricultural production and biodiversity can allow policymakers to direct or influence LUC drivers. This analysis uses a spatially-explicit model that takes climate and management into account to quantify the potential agricultural yield of both the Amazon's most important agricultural commodities - sugar, soy and maize - as well as several that are going to come into increasing prominence, including palm oil. In addition, it maps the potential for carbon to be stored in forest biomass and relative species richness across Amazonia. We then compare carbon storage, agricultural yield and species richness and identify areas where efficient trade offs occur between food, carbon, and biodiversity - three critical ecosystem goods and services provided by the world's largest tropical forest.

  13. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lamy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer Morgenstern et al.(2008. However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR Bais et al.(2015. Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere Erickson et al.(2015, especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle Hader et al.(2007. It can affect phytoplankton productivity Smith and Cullen(1995. This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007. Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014, which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009. Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E, in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC. In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993 and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016

  14. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Kévin; Portafaix, Thierry; Brogniez, Colette; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Bencherif, Hassan; Morel, Béatrice; Pazmino, Andrea; Metzger, Jean Marc; Auriol, Frédérique; Deroo, Christine; Duflot, Valentin; Goloub, Philippe; Long, Charles N.

    2018-01-01

    Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR) is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer (Morgenstern et al., 2008). However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR (Bais et al., 2015). Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere (Erickson et al., 2015), especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle (Hader et al., 2007). It can affect phytoplankton productivity (Smith and Cullen, 1995). This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007). Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014), which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009). Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E), in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993) and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016. Only

  15. Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dhomse

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (reanalysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4% solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which

  16. Business Meets Biodiversity Conference 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vollaard, B.; Man, M. de; Verweij, P.A.

    2012-01-01

    How can companies successfully integrate the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity into their business models? This was the central question at the international conference ‘Business Meets Biodiversity’ held in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on June 27th 2012. The organizing committee,

  17. Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone - However, models will tend to overpredict O3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

    1990-01-01

    Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. The basic processes are illustrated with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale.

  18. The Formation of Concentric Eyewalls with Heat Sink in a Simple Tropical Cyclone Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Yi Peng

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A linearized, two-layer axisymmetric model analogous to Schubert el al. (1980 is used to simulate the formation of concentric eyewalls in an ideal strong tropical cyclone. By imposing a heat sink near the center of a cyclone the induced perturbation wind, through thermodynamic adjustment to the heat sink, forms a double-peak structure when the disturbance is added to the basic state tangential wind. The heat sink represents, in a crude way, evaporative cooling of precipitation falling from cloud during late stage convective activity or a cooling through environmental advection. Detailed profiling of the induced double-peak wind structure is dependent on the radial profile of the imposed heat sink. After the double-peak tangential wind structure is formed, if a heat source corresponding to a new convective activity is generated inside the outer maximum tangential wind, the outer eyewall contracts and strengthens while the inner eyewall weakens. This result suggests that thermodynamic adjustments to changes in the heating of a tropical-cyclone-core region may contribute to the formation of the double-eyewall phenomenon.

  19. Combining Eddy Covariance, Leaf Level Measurements and Modelling to Investigate Ecosystem Fluxes in Tropical Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohland, P.; Mantlana, B.; Kattge, J.

    2007-12-01

    Our project determined seasonal and spatial variations in ecosystem fluxes of tropical grassland ecosystems by investigating three prominent grassland types along a hydrological gradient in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.To identify the environmental factors that control CO2 and H2O exchange in tropical grassland ecosystems, we successfully combined eddy covariance measurements, leaf level measurements and remotely sensed data.Grassland ecosystems growing under the same climate showed profound differences in ecosystem fluxes as well as what regulated those fluxes on an ecosystem level. The analysis of the eddy covariance measurements revealed a pronounced seasonal and spatial variation with maximum net ecosystem exchange (NE) varying between -25μ mol -2 s-1 and -1μ mol -2 s-1 across sites and seasons. Without water limitation the main factor for the differences in NE between ecosystems was nutrient content per vegetation unit. This importance of nutrient content was also confirmed by our leaf level measurements. Seasonal differences in NE varied between sites and were driven by phenology or temperature and light limitation.Eddy covariance measurements for this project were predominantly campaign measurements. To determine annual course and sum of NE, we adapted the ecosystem model BETHY (Biosphere-Energy Transfer Hydrology Scheme) by parameter inversion in combination with remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation for each site.

  20. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  1. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  2. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2004-01-01

    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  3. Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan

    2004-01-01

    One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations

  4. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  5. Development of a PBL Parameterization Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Model and an Improved Magnetospheric Model for Magic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-03-25

    jM 1.25(W P Il~ II I [ 6 :, LEVd~5 I ~JAMMOR jkppovo reecm * 1 L81 31 042 300 Unicorn Park Drive Wobum, Massachuset 0C601 _ __ _JA YCOR DEVELOPMENT...for the growth 4 of the tropical cyclone, and leads to a gradual shift of the storm center toward the warm ocean. "Test of a Planetary Boundary Layer... growth characteristics because gravity waves and model physics act to smooth them. Besides, random observational errors are not the major problem with

  6. Development of a tropical ecological forecasting strategy for ENSO based on the ACME modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Xu, M.; Collier, N.; Xu, C.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Luo, Y.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Levine, P. A.; Randerson, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic climate fluctuation, occurring every eight to 12 years, that is driven by variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and extending westward across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño, the warming phase of ENSO, has strong effects on the global carbon cycle. Strong drying conditions in the Asia-Pacific region and western South America during El Niño lead to reduced ecosystem productivity and increased mortality and fire risk. The intensity of the 2015-2016 ENSO event rivaled or exceeded that of the 1997-1998 event, which was the strongest well-observed El Niño on record. We performed a set of simulations using the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACMEv0.3) model, forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures, to study the responses and feedbacks of drought effects on terrestrial ecosystems induced by both of these events. The ACME model was configured to run with active atmosphere and land models alongside the "data" ocean and thermodynamic sea ice models. The Community Atmosphere Model used the Spectral Element dynamical core (CAM-SE) operating on the ne30 ( 1°) grid, and the ACME Land Model (ALM) was equivalent to the Community Land Model with prognostic biogeochemistry (CLM4.5-BGC). Using Optimal Interpolation SSTs (OISSTv2) and predicted SST anomalies from NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) as forcing, we conducted a transient simulation from 1995 to 2020, following a spin up simulation, and analyzed the ENSO impacts on tropical terrestrial ecosystems for the 5-year periods centered on these two strong ENSO events. During the transient simulation, we saved the resulting atmospheric forcing, which included prognostic biosphere-atmosphere interactions, every three hours for use in future offline simulation for model development and testing. We will present simulation results, focusing on hydroclimatic anomalies as

  7. Simian-tropic HIV as a model to study drug resistance against integrase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wares, Melissa; Hassounah, Said; Mesplède, Thibault; Sandstrom, Paul A; Wainberg, Mark A

    2015-04-01

    Drug resistance represents a key aspect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment failure. It is important to develop nonhuman primate models for studying issues of drug resistance and the persistence and transmission of drug-resistant viruses. However, relatively little work has been conducted using either simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) or SIV/HIV recombinant viruses for studying resistance against integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs). Here, we used a T-cell-tropic SIV/HIV recombinant virus in which the capsid and vif regions of HIV-1 were replaced with their SIV counterparts (simian-tropic HIV-1 [stHIV-1](SCA,SVIF)) to study the impact of a number of drug resistance substitutions in the integrase coding region at positions E92Q, G118R, E138K, Y143R, S153Y, N155H, and R263K on drug resistance, viral infectivity, and viral replication capacity. Our results show that each of these substitutions exerted effects that were similar to their effects in HIV-1. Substitutions associated with primary resistance against dolutegravir were more detrimental to stHIV-1(SCA,SVIF) infectiousness than were resistance substitutions associated with raltegravir and elvitegravir, consistent with data that have been reported for HIV-1. These findings support the role of stHIV-1(SCA,SVIF) as a useful model with which to evaluate the role of INSTI resistance substitutions on viral persistence, transmissibility, and pathogenesis in a nonhuman primate model. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  8. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  9. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Measey, G John; Tolley, Krystal A

    2011-01-01

    The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei. We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma). In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka. Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1.1-0.9 Ma.

  10. Sequential Fragmentation of Pleistocene Forests in an East Africa Biodiversity Hotspot: Chameleons as a Model to Track Forest History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Measey, G. John; Tolley, Krystal A.

    2011-01-01

    Background The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei. Methodology/Principal Findings We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93–0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22–1.84 Ma). In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka. Conclusions/Significance Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest

  11. High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, WilliamM.

    2011-01-01

    In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

  12. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  13. The value of biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Association of Chartered Certified Accountants

    2011-01-01

    In addition to its intrinsic value (nature working as it is; species are the product of a long history of continuing evolution by means of ecological processes, and so they have the right to continued existence), biodiversity also plays a fundamental role as ecosystem services in the maintenance of natural ecological processes. The economic or utilitarian values of biodiversity rely upon the dependence of man on biodiversity; products that nature can provide: wood, food, fibers to make paper,...

  14. Sensitivity of 96 and 120-hour Numerical Model Tropical Cyclone Position Forecasts to Initial Position Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    providing commanders a clear picture of severe weather impacts and how their personnel and assets could be affected. 4 II. Background The tropical cyclone...transition, storms may transition from a tropical environment dominated by easterly synoptic flow to westerly synoptic flow in the mid-latitudes. Accompanying...this change in the synoptic pattern comes a change in the the direction of movement of most tropical cyclones. Generally, storms at lower latitudes

  15. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  16. Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M

    2017-01-01

    With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

  17. A raining simulation model for the volcanic tropical island of Tahiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aureau, M.; Chretien, A.; Barriot, J.; Haverkamp, R.

    2012-12-01

    Tahiti island is the largest island of French Polynesia, located in the archipelago of the Society island in the southern Pacific Ocean (coordinates: 17°40'S ; 149°25'W). It is a volcanic island with high mountains marking of deep valleys and it has a total land area of 1,045 sq. km. There are four peaks on the island, the tallest of which is Mount Orohena that stands at 7,618 feet above sea level. It has a tropical climate characterized by eastern winds and strong localized rainfalls and two seasons: November to April is the wet season, May to September is the dry season. Rainfalls are often violent and unequally spread over the island. Circular geography of the island allows to know the location of the valleys towards the prevailing winds and to describe accurately the recurring meteorological events. A network of 28 rain measurement stations was set up in the 60s by the French Institute for Research and Development (IRD) and is currently monitored by the hydrologic service of French Polynesia. This data set gives the rainfalls on the entire island of Tahiti. Due to the volcanic topography, statistical methods commonly used to extrapolate rainfalls across an entire region or area, do not apply to this case. Our method is focused on this issue integrating the specific topographic and geographic conditions of a volcanic island. We have divided the island in 5 different areas from topographic data with highest crests being the boundaries. We developed a mathematic model in order to extrapolate data from rain measurement stations located inside each of these areas. Our mathematic model considers three specific criteria: for each unknown point, it considers its location within the area (distance to the closest measurement station), its altitude, and its angle to the dominant winds. Using this model, we were able to describe rainfalls at every point of the island. The time-scale of our model is one day. This model will describe the precipitation variations day after

  18. Dependence of tropical cyclone development on coriolis parameter: A theoretical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Liyuan; Li, Tim; Bi, Mingyu; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2018-03-01

    A simple theoretical model was formulated to investigate how tropical cyclone (TC) intensification depends on the Coriolis parameter. The theoretical framework includes a two-layer free atmosphere and an Ekman boundary layer at the bottom. The linkage between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer is through the Ekman pumping vertical velocity in proportion to the vorticity at the top of the boundary layer. The closure of this linear system assumes a simple relationship between the free atmosphere diabatic heating and the boundary layer moisture convergence. Under a set of realistic atmospheric parameter values, the model suggests that the most preferred latitude for TC development is around 5° without considering other factors. The theoretical result is confirmed by high-resolution WRF model simulations in a zero-mean flow and a constant SST environment on an f -plane with different Coriolis parameters. Given an initially balanced weak vortex, the TC-like vortex intensifies most rapidly at the reference latitude of 5°. Thus, the WRF model simulations confirm the f-dependent characteristics of TC intensification rate as suggested by the theoretical model.

  19. A multi-model climate response over tropical Africa at +2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Déqué

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a +2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation over tropical Africa is examined, based on an ensemble of 12 regional climate model scenario simulations. These 12 scenarios are re-phased so that they all correspond to the same global warming of 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial conditions. The continental temperature increase is above the global average. If heat waves are defined with the same temperature threshold in the reference climate and in the scenario, their frequency increases by a factor of 10. When the temperature threshold is adapted to future conditions, there is still a slight increase in frequency. The average precipitation does not show a significant response, due to model-to-model spread. However two compensating phenomena occur, which are robust among the models: (a the number of rain days decreases whereas the precipitation intensity increases, and (b the rain season occurs later during the year with less precipitation in early summer and more precipitation in late summer. Simulated daily temperature and precipitation data are combined in two impact models, one for the hydrology of the Nile and Niger basins, one for the food security of the different countries. They show that the main feature of the climate change is not a continuous trend signal, but an alternation of dry and wet decadal to multidecadal episodes.

  20. Global biodiversity monitoring: from data sources to essential biodiversity variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proenca, Vania; Martin, Laura J.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Fernandez, Miguel; McRae, Louise; Belnap, Jayne; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Garcia-Moreno, Jaime; Gregory, Richard D.; Honrado, Joao P; Jürgens, Norbert; Opige, Michael; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Tiago, Patricia; van Sway, Chris A

    2016-01-01

    Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

  1. Species distribution modeling in the tropics: problems, potentialities, and the role of biological data for effective species conservation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cayuela, L.; Golicher, J.D.; Newton, A.C.; Kolb, M.; Alburquerque, de F.S.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Pérez, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we aim to investigate the problems and potentialities of species distribution modeling (SDM) as a tool for conservation planning and policy development and implementation in tropical regions. We reviewed 123 studies published between 1995 and 2007 in five of the leading journals in

  2. Ecological niche modeling for conservation planning of an endemic snail in the verge of becoming a pest in cardamom plantations in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sandeep; Shivaprakash, Kadukothanahally Nagaraju; Aravind, Neelavara A; Ravikanth, Gudasalamani; Dayanandan, Selvadurai

    2016-09-01

    Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution of Indrella ampulla , a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom ( Ellettaria cardamomum ) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap between I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020-2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution of I. ampulla in Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion of I. ampulla under both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable for I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum in future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable for Ellettaria cardamomum cultivation and 45% suitable for I. ampulla , with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region.

  3. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, A.; Burgess, N.D.; Milledge, S.A.H.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of similar to 0.5 Pg.y(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns...

  4. Determination of hydraulic properties of a tropical soil of Hawaii using column experiments and inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Sobotkova

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A method for determining soil hydraulic properties of a weathered tropical soil (Oxisol using a medium-sized column with undisturbed soil is presented. The method was used to determine fitting parameters of the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions of a soil column in support of a pesticide leaching study. The soil column was extracted from a continuously-used research plot in Central Oahu (Hawaii, USA and its internal structure was examined by computed tomography. The experiment was based on tension infiltration into the soil column with free outflow at the lower end. Water flow through the soil core was mathematically modeled using a computer code that numerically solves the one-dimensional Richards equation. Measured soil hydraulic parameters were used for direct simulation, and the retention and soil hydraulic parameters were estimated by inverse modeling. The inverse modeling produced very good agreement between model outputs and measured flux and pressure head data for the relatively homogeneous column. The moisture content at a given pressure from the retention curve measured directly in small soil samples was lower than that obtained through parameter optimization based on experiments using a medium-sized undisturbed soil column.

  5. Spatial patterns of primary productivity derived from the Dynamic Habitat Indices predict patterns of species richness and distributions in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttidate, Naparat

    Humans are changing the Earth's ecosystems, which has profound consequences for biodiversity. To understand how species respond to these changes, biodiversity science requires accurate assessments of biodiversity. However, biodiversity assessments are still limited in tropical regions. The Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), derived from satellite data, summarize dynamic patterns of annual primary productivity: (a) cumulative annual productivity, (b) minimum annual productivity, and (c) seasonal variation in productivity. The DHIs have been successfully used in temperate regions, but not yet in the tropics. My goal was to evaluate the importance of primary productivity measured via the DHIs for assessing patterns of species richness and distributions in Thailand. First, I assessed the relationships between the DHIs and tropical bird species richness. I also evaluated the complementarity of the DHIs and topography, climate, latitudinal gradients, habitat heterogeneity, and habitat area in explaining bird species richness. I found that among three DHIs, cumulative annual productivity was the most important factor in explaining bird species richness and that the DHIs outperformed other environmental variables. Second, I developed texture measures derive from DHI cumulative annual productivity, and compared them to habitat composition and fragmentation as predictors of tropical forest bird distributions. I found that adding texture measures to habitat composition and fragmentation models improved the prediction of tropical bird distributions, especially area- and edge-sensitive tropical forest bird species. Third, I predicted the effects of trophic interactions between primary productivity, prey, and predators in relation to habitat connectivity for Indochinese tigers (Panthera tigris). I found that including trophic interactions improved habitat suitability models for tigers. However, tiger habitat is highly fragmented with few dispersal corridors. I also identified

  6. Climate driven changes to rainfall and streamflow patterns in a model tropical island hydrological system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. MacKenzie; Christian P. Giardina; Gregory L. Bruland

    2015-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 and resulting warming are expected to impact freshwater resources in the tropics, but few studies have documented how natural stream flow regimes in tropical watersheds will respond to changing rainfall patterns. To address this data gap, we utilized a space-for-time substitution across a naturally occurring and highly...

  7. Recovering biodiversity knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, G.W.; Smolders, H.; Sours, S.; Pou, S.

    2005-01-01

    Cambodian¿s civil wars have seriously affected the country¿s agro-biodiversity and the farmers¿ traditional knowledge in this field. The PEDIGREA project aims at conserving on-farm agro-biodiversity conservation and in Cambodia it focuses on vegetable diversity. It tries to link the preservation of

  8. In Defence of Biodiversity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Archer, Alfred; Burch Brown, Joanna

    2017-01-01

    The concept of biodiversity has played a central role within conservation biology over the last thirty years. Precisely how it should be understood, however, is a matter of ongoing debate. In this paper we defend what we call a classic multidimensional conception of biodiversity. We begin by

  9. Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdaway, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the

  10. Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodov, B.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

  11. Soil and biomass carbon pools in model communities of tropical plants under elevated CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnone, J A; Körner, Ch

    1995-09-01

    The experimental data presented here relate to the question of whether terrestrial ecosystems will sequester more C in their soils, litter and biomass as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rise. Similar to our previous study with relatively fertile growth conditions (Körner and Arnone 1992), we constructed four rather nutrient-limited model communities of moist tropical plant species in greenhouses (approximately 7 m 2 each). Plant communities were composed of seven species (77 individuals per community) representing major taxonomic groups and various life forms found in the moist tropics. Two ecosystems were exposed to 340 μl CO 2 l -1 and two to 610 μl l -1 for 530 days of humid tropical growth conditions. In order to permit precise determination of C deposition in the soil, plant communities were initially established in C-free unwashed quartz sand. Soils were then amended with known amounts of organic matter (containing C and nutrients). Mineral nutrients were also supplied over the course of the experiment as timed-release full-balance fertilizer pellets. Soils represented by far the largest repositories for fixed C in all ecosystems. Almost 5 times more C (ca. 80% of net C fixation) was sequestered in the soil than in the biomass, but this did not differ between CO 2 treatments. In addition, at the whole-ecosystem level we found a remarkably small and statistically non-significant increase in C sequestration (+4%; the sum of C accretion in the soil, biomass, litter and necromass). Total community biomass more than quadrupled during the experiment, but at harvest was, on average, only 8% greater (i.e. 6% per year; n.s.) under elevated CO 2 , mainly due to increased root biomass (+15%, P=0.12). Time courses of leaf area index of all ecosystems suggested that canopy expansion was approaching steady state by the time systems were harvested. Net primary productivity (NPP) of all ecosystems-i.e. annual accumulation of biomass, necromass, and leaf litter (but not

  12. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  13. Sequential Fragmentation of Pleistocene Forests in an East Africa Biodiversity Hotspot: Chameleons as a Model to Track Forest History

    OpenAIRE

    Measey, G. John; Tolley, Krystal A.

    2011-01-01

    Background The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal...

  14. Superposition of the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses Model and the Poisson White Noise Model for the Representation of Tropical Rain Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrissey, M. L.

    2009-12-01

    A point process model for tropical rain rates is developed through the derivation of the third moment expression for a combined point process model. The model is a superposition of a Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse model and a Poisson white noise process model. The model is scalable in the temporal dimension. The derivation of the third moment for this model allows the inclusion of the skewness parameter which is necessary to adequately represent rainfall intensity. Analysis of the model fit to tropical tipping bucket raingauge data ranging in temporal scale from 5 minutes to one day indicates that it can adequately produce synthesized rainfall having the statistical characteristics of rain rate over the range of scales tested. Of special interest is the model’s capability to accurately preserve the probability of extreme tropical rain rates at different scales. In addition to various hydrological applications, the model also has many potential uses in the field of meteorology, such as the study and development of radar rain rate algorithms for the tropics which need to parameterized attenuation due to heavy rain.

  15. Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part IV: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reader, Grahame

    2000-01-01

    Sources of 72-h track errors> 300 n mi by four dynamical model tropical cyclone predictions in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons are studied using conceptual models Carr and Elsberry have previously...

  16. Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reader, Grahame

    2000-01-01

    Sources of 72-h track errors > 300 n mi by four dynamical model tropical cyclone predictions in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons are studied using conceptual models Carr and Elsberry have previously...

  17. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

    2010-08-17

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

  18. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

  19. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  20. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media

  1. Tropical Forest Restoration within Galapagos National Park: Application of a State-transition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Wilkinson

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Current theory on non-equilibrium communities, thresholds of irreversibility, and ecological resilience suggests the goal of ecological restoration of degraded communities is not to achieve one target, but to reestablish the temporal and spatial diversity inherent in natural ecosystems. Few restoration models, however, address ecological and management issues across the vegetation mosaic of a landscape. Because of a lack of scientific knowledge and funds, restoration practitioners focus instead on site-specific prescriptions and reactive rather than proactive approaches to restoration; this approach often dooms restoration projects to failure. We applied a state-transition model as a decision-making tool to identify and achieve short- and long-term restoration goals for a tropical, moist, evergreen forest on the island of Santa Cruz, Galapagos. The model guided the process of identifying current and desirable forest states, as well as the natural and human disturbances and management actions that caused transitions between them. This process facilitated assessment of opportunities for ecosystem restoration, expansion of the definition of restoration success for the system, and realization that, although site- or species-specific prescriptions may be available, they cannot succeed until broader landscape restoration issues are identified and addressed. The model provides a decision-making framework to allocate resources effectively to maximize these opportunities across the landscape, and to achieve long-term restoration success. Other restoration models have been limited by lack of scientific knowledge of the system. State-transition models for restoration incorporate current knowledge and funds, are adaptive, and can provide direction for restoration research and conservation management in other degraded systems.

  2. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

  3. Satellite altimetry and hydrologic modeling of poorly-gauged tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistioadi, Yohanes Budi

    Fresh water resources are critical for daily human consumption. Therefore, a continuous monitoring effort over their quantity and quality is instrumental. One important model for water quantity monitoring is the rainfall-runoff model, which represents the response of a watershed to the variability of precipitation, thus estimating the discharge of a channel (Bedient and Huber, 2002, Beven, 2012). Remote sensing and satellite geodetic observations are capable to provide critical hydrological parameters, which can be used to support hydrologic modeling. For the case of satellite radar altimetry, limited temporal resolutions (e.g., satellite revisit period) prohibit the use of this method for a short (less than weekly) interval monitoring of water level or discharge. On the other hand, the current satellite radar altimeter footprints limit the water level measurement for rivers wider than 1 km (Birkett, 1998, Birkett et al., 2002). Some studies indeed reported successful retrieval of water level for small-size rivers as narrow as 80 m (Kuo and Kao, 2011, Michailovsky et al., 2012); however, the processing of current satellite altimetry signals for small water bodies to retrieve accurate water levels, remains challenging. To address this scientific challenge, this study poses two main objectives: (1) to monitor small (40--200 m width) and medium-sized (200--800 m width) rivers and lakes using satellite altimetry through identification and choice of the over-water radar waveforms corresponding to the appropriately waveform-retracked water level; and (2) to develop a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to represent the response of mesoscale watershed to the variability of precipitation. Both studies address the humid tropics of Southeast Asia, specifically in Indonesia, where similar studies do not yet exist. This study uses the Level 2 radar altimeter measurements generated by European Space Agency's (ESA's) Envisat (Environmental Satellite) mission. The first study

  4. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

  5. Tropical forests and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gullison, R.E. [Univ British Columbia, Biodivers Res Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, (Canada); Frumhoff, P.C. [Union Concerned Sci, Cambridge, MA 02238 (United States); Canadell, J.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, (Australia); Field, C.B. [Carnegie Inst, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Nepstad, D.C. [Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 (United States); Hayhoe, K. [Texas Tech Univ, Dept Geosci, Lubbock, TX 79409 (United States); Avissar, R. [Duke Univ, Dept Civil and Environm Engn, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Curran, L.M. [YAle Sch Forestry and Environm Studies, Trop Resources Inst, New Haven, CT 06511 (United States); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA, CNRS, Unite Mixte Rech 1572, Lab Sci Climate and Environm IPSL LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, (France); Jones, C.D. [Hadley Ctr Climate Predict and Res, Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, (United Kingdom); Nobre, C. [CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, (Brazil)

    2007-07-01

    Beyond protecting the climate, reducing tropical deforestation has the potential to eliminate many negative impacts that may compromise the ability of tropical countries to develop sustainably, including reduction in rainfall, loss of biodiversity, degraded human health from biomass burning pollution, and the unintentional loss of productive forests. Providing economic incentives for the maintenance of forest cover can help tropical countries avoid these negative impacts and meet development goals, while also complementing aggressive efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Industrialized and developing countries urgently need to support the RED policy process and develop effective and equitable compensation schemes to help tropical countries protect their forests, reducing the risk of dangerous climate change and protecting the many other goods and services that these forests contribute to sustainable development. (authors)

  6. Tropical forests and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gullison, R.E.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Canadell, J.G.; Field, C.B.; Nepstad, D.C.; Hayhoe, K.; Avissar, R.; Curran, L.M.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, C.D.; Nobre, C.

    2007-01-01

    Beyond protecting the climate, reducing tropical deforestation has the potential to eliminate many negative impacts that may compromise the ability of tropical countries to develop sustainably, including reduction in rainfall, loss of biodiversity, degraded human health from biomass burning pollution, and the unintentional loss of productive forests. Providing economic incentives for the maintenance of forest cover can help tropical countries avoid these negative impacts and meet development goals, while also complementing aggressive efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Industrialized and developing countries urgently need to support the RED policy process and develop effective and equitable compensation schemes to help tropical countries protect their forests, reducing the risk of dangerous climate change and protecting the many other goods and services that these forests contribute to sustainable development. (authors)

  7. North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Timothy; Yonekura, Emmi

    2013-01-01

    A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

  8. The Application of Barnes Filter to Positioning the Center of Landed Tropical Cyclone in Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Zou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available After a tropical cyclone (TC making landfall, the numerical model output sea level pressure (SLP presents many small-scale perturbations which significantly influence the positioning of the TC center. To fix the problem, Barnes filter with weighting parameters C=2500 and G=0.35 is used to remove these perturbations. A case study of TC Fung-Wong which landed China in 2008 shows that Barnes filter not only cleanly removes these perturbations, but also well preserves the TC signals. Meanwhile, the centers (track obtained from SLP processed with Barnes filter are much closer to the observations than that from SLP without Barnes filter. Based on the distance difference (DD between the TC center determined by SLP with/without Barnes filter and observation, statistics analysis of 12 TCs which landed China during 2005–2015 shows that in most cases (about 85% the DDs are small (between −30 km and 30 km, while in a few cases (about 15% the DDs are large (greater than 30 km even 70 km. This further verifies that the TC centers identified from SLP with Barnes filter are more accurate compared to that directly obtained from model output SLP. Moreover, the TC track identified with Barnes filter is much smoother than that without Barnes filter.

  9. Knowledge Transposition from Tropical Fish Serum Proteins to Fundamental Education Students Through Biochemical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V.M. Maciel de Carvalho

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The subject was represented and discussed at The National Week of Science and Technology, UFPE, an initiative from The Ministry of Science and Technology to encourage children and people in science and technology activities. The work aimed to renew the importance to transmit knowledge from simple, imaginative, biochemical models and interactive teaching. The stand tool contained an aquarium with fishes, five scale models showing peptide bond, carbohydrate inhibited lectin molecule, hemagglutination reaction, lectin-bacterium surface interaction and enzyme-substract-inhibitor. Posters described tropical fish importance and methods applied to obtain fish serum and organs to purify lectins and protein inhibitors as well as to extract tissue DNA; notions were transmitted on fish immunology and diseases. The students were attracted and impressed with the exotic fishes most cultivated in Brazil; they asked if it is necessary to kill the fish to extract lectin and about lectin importance. Students were also interested to know if all fish enzyme/inhibitors are favorable to the own fish organism. The work succeeded to inform and stimulate future scientists in the field and to awake their scientific curiosity.

  10. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  11. Plant Family-Specific Impacts of Petroleum Pollution on Biodiversity and Leaf Chlorophyll Content in the Amazon Rainforest of Ecuador.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Arellano

    Full Text Available In recent decades petroleum pollution in the tropical rainforest has caused significant environmental damage in vast areas of the Amazon region. At present the extent of this damage is not entirely clear. Little is known about the specific impacts of petroleum pollution on tropical vegetation. In a field expedition to the Ecuadorian Amazon over 1100 leaf samples were collected from tropical trees in polluted and unpolluted sites. Plant families were identified for 739 of the leaf samples and compared between sites. Plant biodiversity indices show a reduction of the plant biodiversity when the site was affected by petroleum pollution. In addition, reflectance and transmittance were measured with a field spectroradiometer for every leaf sample and leaf chlorophyll content was estimated using reflectance model inversion with the radiative tranfer model PROSPECT. Four of the 15 plant families that are most representative of the ecoregion (Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Rubiaceae and Euphorbiaceae had significantly lower leaf chlorophyll content in the polluted areas compared to the unpolluted areas. This suggests that these families are more sensitive to petroleum pollution. The polluted site is dominated by Melastomataceae and Rubiaceae, suggesting that these plant families are particularly competitive in the presence of pollution. This study provides evidence of a decrease of plant diversity and richness caused by petroleum pollution and of a plant family-specific response of leaf chlorophyll content to petroleum pollution in the Ecuadorian Amazon using information from field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modelling.

  12. Plant Family-Specific Impacts of Petroleum Pollution on Biodiversity and Leaf Chlorophyll Content in the Amazon Rainforest of Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, Paul; Tansey, Kevin; Balzter, Heiko; Tellkamp, Markus

    2017-01-01

    In recent decades petroleum pollution in the tropical rainforest has caused significant environmental damage in vast areas of the Amazon region. At present the extent of this damage is not entirely clear. Little is known about the specific impacts of petroleum pollution on tropical vegetation. In a field expedition to the Ecuadorian Amazon over 1100 leaf samples were collected from tropical trees in polluted and unpolluted sites. Plant families were identified for 739 of the leaf samples and compared between sites. Plant biodiversity indices show a reduction of the plant biodiversity when the site was affected by petroleum pollution. In addition, reflectance and transmittance were measured with a field spectroradiometer for every leaf sample and leaf chlorophyll content was estimated using reflectance model inversion with the radiative tranfer model PROSPECT. Four of the 15 plant families that are most representative of the ecoregion (Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Rubiaceae and Euphorbiaceae) had significantly lower leaf chlorophyll content in the polluted areas compared to the unpolluted areas. This suggests that these families are more sensitive to petroleum pollution. The polluted site is dominated by Melastomataceae and Rubiaceae, suggesting that these plant families are particularly competitive in the presence of pollution. This study provides evidence of a decrease of plant diversity and richness caused by petroleum pollution and of a plant family-specific response of leaf chlorophyll content to petroleum pollution in the Ecuadorian Amazon using information from field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modelling.

  13. A Biodiversity Indicators Dashboard: Addressing Challenges to Monitoring Progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets Using Disaggregated Global Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xuemei; Smyth, Regan L.; Young, Bruce E.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Sánchez de Lozada, Alexandra; Bubb, Philip; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Larsen, Frank W.; Hamilton, Healy; Hansen, Matthew C.; Turner, Will R.

    2014-01-01

    Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's “Aichi Targets”. These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity “dashboard” – a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the

  14. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xuemei; Smyth, Regan L; Young, Bruce E; Brooks, Thomas M; Sánchez de Lozada, Alexandra; Bubb, Philip; Butchart, Stuart H M; Larsen, Frank W; Hamilton, Healy; Hansen, Matthew C; Turner, Will R

    2014-01-01

    Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the protection of

  15. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuemei Han

    Full Text Available Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate, state of species (Red List Index, conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas, and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision. Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the

  16. Evapotranspiration modelled from stands of three broad-leaved tropical trees in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, Seth

    2001-10-01

    To examine the impact of tree species on the water cycle in a wet tropical region, annual evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated in Costa Rican plantations of three native, broad-leaved tree species that contrasted strongly in leaf size, leaf area and phenology. Evapotranspiration was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation for transpiration from the dry canopy, the equilibrium equation for evaporation from the understory and a modified Rutter model of interception for evaporation of water from the canopy when wetted by rainfall. Canopy conductance was estimated from stomatal conductance, leaf area and leaf boundary-layer conductance; canopy storage capacity and filling rate were estimated from throughfall measurements. Micrometeorological instruments were mounted on a scaffolding tower.Mean stomatal conductance, which ranged from 0·1 to 0·7 mol m-2 s-1, was similar to boundary-layer conductance, 0·1 to 0·5 mol m-2 s-1, indicating decoupling of stomata from atmospheric conditions. Mean canopy conductance varied from 0·6 to 0·7 mol m-2 s-1 in the 1994 wet season then dropped to 0·3-0·4 mol m-2 s-1 in stands of the two deciduous species, Cordia and Cedrela, as a result of reduced leaf area during the dry season. Despite increased understory evaporation, dry-season ET from these stands was only 78-81% of ET in stands of the evergreen species, Hyeronima. Maximum canopy water depth varied from 0·2 to 2·2 mm, causing modelled interception to vary from 6% to 25% of annual ET. Higher dry-season transpiration rates along with high rates of evaporation of intercepted rainfall in all seasons led to 14% higher annual ET in Hyeronima stands (1509 mm) than in stands of the species with lowest ET, tropical plantations can influence hydrological balance.

  17. Carbon and biodiversity loss due to forest degradation – a Cambodian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nophea Sasaki; Kimsun Chheng; Nobuya Mizoue

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diverse in terms of stand and age structures, commercial and biodiversity values of individually trees, and dependency of local communities. Monitoring forest degradation in the tropics remains a challenge despite increasing global interests in reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and safeguarding...

  18. Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, R.; Huber, M.

    2012-03-01

    Future widespread coral bleaching and subsequent mortality has been projected using sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from global, coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). While these models possess fidelity in reproducing many aspects of climate, they vary in their ability to correctly capture such parameters as the tropical ocean seasonal cycle and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Such weaknesses most likely reduce the accuracy of predicting coral bleaching, but little attention has been paid to the important issue of understanding potential errors and biases, the interaction of these biases with trends, and their propagation in predictions. To analyze the relative importance of various types of model errors and biases in predicting coral bleaching, various intra- and inter-annual frequency bands of observed SSTs were replaced with those frequencies from 24 GCMs 20th century simulations included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. Subsequent thermal stress was calculated and predictions of bleaching were made. These predictions were compared with observations of coral bleaching in the period 1982-2007 to calculate accuracy using an objective measure of forecast quality, the Peirce skill score (PSS). Major findings are that: (1) predictions are most sensitive to the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the ENSO 24-60 months frequency band and (2) because models tend to understate the seasonal cycle at reef locations, they systematically underestimate future bleaching. The methodology we describe can be used to improve the accuracy of bleaching predictions by characterizing the errors and uncertainties involved in the predictions.

  19. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  20. Tropical paleoclimates at the last glacial maximum: comparison of paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinot, S.; Ramstein, G.; Joussaume, S. [CEA-CNRS, Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; Harrison, S.P.; Prentice, I.C. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Postfach 10 01 64, D-07701 Jena (Germany); Guiot, J. [Laboratoire de Botanique Historique et Palynologie, Faculte de St Jerome, Marseille (France); Stute, M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964 (United States)

    1999-11-04

    Seventeen simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO{sub 2}, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs. (orig.)

  1. Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Cheung, Samson; Li, Jui-Lin F.; Wu, Yu-ling

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we discuss the performance of the parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the analysis of tropical waves that are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. To efficiently analyze high-resolution, global, multiple-dimensional data sets, we first implement multilevel parallelism into the ensemble EMD (EEMD) and obtain a parallel speedup of 720 using 200 eight-core processors. We then apply the parallel EEMD (PEEMD) to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from preselected data sets that represent (1) idealized tropical waves and (2) large-scale environmental flows associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012). Results indicate that the PEEMD is efficient and effective in revealing the major wave characteristics of the data, such as wavelengths and periods, by sifting out the dominant (wave) components. This approach has a potential for hurricane climate study by examining the statistical relationship between tropical waves and TC formation.

  2. Determination of chloromethane and dichloromethane in a tropical terrestrial mangrove forest in Brazil by measurements and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolusu, S. R.; Schlünzen, K. H.; Grawe, D.; Seifert, R.

    2018-01-01

    Chloromethane (CH3Cl) and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) are known to have both natural and anthropogenic sources to the atmosphere. From recent studies it is known that tropical and sub tropical plants are primary sources of CH3Cl in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the biogenic emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves, field measurement were conducted in a tropical mangrove forest on the coast of Brazil. To the best of our knowledge these field measurements were the first of its kind conducted in the tropical mangrove ecosystem of Braganca. A mesoscale atmospheric model, MEsoscale TRAnsport and fluid (Stream) model (METRAS), was used to simulate passive tracers concentrations and to study the dependency of concentrations on type of emission function and meteorology. Model simulated concentrations were normalized using the observed field data. With the help of the mesoscale model results and the observed data the mangrove emissions were estimated at the local scale. By using this bottom-up approach the global emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves were quantified. The emission range obtained with different emission functions and different meteorology are 4-7 Gg yr-1 for CH3Cl and 1-2 Gg yr2 for CH2Cl2. Based on the present study the mangroves contribute 0.3 percent of CH2Cl2 and 0.2 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. This study corroborates the study by Manley et al. (2007) which estimated that mangroves produce 0.3 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. Although they contribute a small percentage in the global budget, their long lifetime enables them to contribute to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. From the detailed analyses of the model results it can be concluded that meteorology has a larger influence on the variability of concentrations than the temporal variability of the emission function.

  3. Modelling the spatial behaviour of a tropical tuna purse seine fleet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Tim K; Mees, Chris C; Milner-Gulland, E J

    2014-01-01

    Industrial tuna fisheries operate in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but concerns over sustainability and environmental impacts of these fisheries have resulted in increased scrutiny of how they are managed. An important but often overlooked factor in the success or failure of tuna fisheries management is the behaviour of fishers and fishing fleets. Uncertainty in how a fishing fleet will respond to management or other influences can be reduced by anticipating fleet behaviour, although to date there has been little research directed at understanding and anticipating the human dimension of tuna fisheries. The aim of this study was to address gaps in knowledge of the behaviour of tuna fleets, using the Indian Ocean tropical tuna purse seine fishery as a case study. We use statistical modelling to examine the factors that influence the spatial behaviour of the purse seine fleet at broad spatiotemporal scales. This analysis reveals very high consistency between years in the use of seasonal fishing grounds by the fleet, as well as a forcing influence of biophysical ocean conditions on the distribution of fishing effort. These findings suggest strong inertia in the spatial behaviour of the fleet, which has important implications for predicting the response of the fleet to natural events or management measures (e.g., spatial closures).

  4. Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Smalley

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs, using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.

  5. Energy Balance and Modeled Evapotranspiration for a wet Tropical Forest in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loescher, H. W.; Gholz, H. L.; Jacobs, J. M.; Oberbauer, S. F.

    2002-12-01

    The effects of albedo, net radiation (Rn), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and surface conductances on energy balance and evapotranspiration (ET) were determined for a wet tropical forest in NE Costa Rica from 1997-2000. Sensible (H) and latent heat (lE) fluxes were estimated by the combination of above-canopy turbulent exchange, eddy-covariance, and the change in below-canopy heat profiles. Albedo was ca. 12 percent of incident radiation and did not differ seasonally. Rn was significantly different between years and explained ca. 79 percent of the variation in H and lE fluxes. The effects of VPD did not explain any addition variation in heat fluxes. lE was always greater than H fluxes when Rn greater than 40 W m-2. Understory heat fluxes were small and contributed little towards daily energy exchange, but may be significant when Rn is small. A dimensionless coefficient (W) was used to determine the relative importance of aerodynamic conductance (ga) and bulk canopy conductance (gb) on lE. During the day, W was greater than 0.6 and peaked at 0.85 suggesting that; the forest was decoupled from physiological controls, lE is more dependent on Rn, and ga exerts more control on lE than gb. Because of these results, both the Priestly-Taylor and the Penman-Monteith models preformed well using only Rn. Because the canopy is wet for ca. 32 percent of the time, there was better precision in estimating lE flux using the Priestly-Taylor model (with an empirically estimated a = 1.24), when the canopy was wet. Annual ET was ranged from 54 to 66 percent of bulk precipitation. Using a Rutter-type model, interception losses where 17-18 precent of bulk precipitation. The overall amount of energy needed for annual ET accounted for ca. 88-97 precent of total Rn.

  6. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2017-11-01

    Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971-2000) and for the future (2071-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

  7. Hydrological modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria in a tropical mountain catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Ribolzi, Olivier

    2017-08-01

    The occurrence of pathogen bacteria in surface waters is a threat to public health worldwide. In particular, inadequate sanitation resulting in high contamination of surface water with pathogens of fecal origin is a serious issue in developing countries such as Lao P.D.R. Despite the health implications of the consumption of contaminated surface water, the environmental fate and transport of pathogens of fecal origin and their indicators (Fecal Indicator Bacteria or FIB) are still poorly known in tropical areas. In this study, we used measurements of flow rates, suspended sediments and of the FIB Escherichia coli (E. coli) in a 60-ha catchment in Northern Laos to explore the ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed-scale FIB fate and transport. We assessed the influences of 3 in-stream processes, namely bacteria deposition and resuspension, bacterial regrowth, and hyporheic exchange (i.e. transient storage) on predicted FIB numbers. We showed that the SWAT model in its original version does not correctly simulate small E. coli numbers during the dry season. We showed that model's performance could be improved when considering the release of E. coli together with sediment resuspension. We demonstrated that the hyporheic exchange of bacteria across the Sediment-Water Interface (SWI) should be considered when simulating FIB concentration not only during wet weather, but also during the dry season, or baseflow period. In contrast, the implementation of the regrowth process did not improve the model during the dry season without inducing an overestimation during the wet season. This work thus underlines the importance of taking into account in-stream processes, such as deposition and resuspension, regrowth and hyporheic exchange, when using SWAT to simulate FIB dynamics in surface waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The biodiversity from Bogota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvachi Zambrano, Byron

    2002-01-01

    It is about the flora biodiversity and fauna that it occupied the savannah of Bogota originally, about the flora and extinct fauna and of the flora and fauna that still persist in spite of the colonization

  9. Business and biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Meyer; Lehmann, Martin; Christensen, Per

    - a challenge that needs to be shared between conservationists, green organisations, public authorities, as well as the private sector. A new wave of green initiatives has emerged within the culture of business and marketing. The reasons for why businesses should engage in environmental actions are many......Despite the overall importance of biodiversity, the quality measures of biodiversity show worrying figures. Numerous human impacts on nature impose serious hazard to its inherent diversity. This expansion of human activities leaves the battle against loss of biodiversity to be a great challenge......, but the effort has until now considered biodiversity actions relatively little, compared to other areas such as e.g. climate related actions. Nevertheless, the opportunity for businesses to meet their responsibilities and lift a share of the challenge is far from being just a romantic thought. Nor...

  10. Biodiversity and global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

    1992-01-01

    The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

  11. Dimensions of biodiversity loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palma, De Adriana; Kuhlmann, Michael; Bugter, Rob; Ferrier, Simon; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Potts, Simon G.; Roberts, Stuart P.M.; Schweiger, Oliver; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more

  12. Funding begets biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil David; Gereau, Roy E.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Effective conservation of biodiversity relies on an unbiased knowledge of its distribution. Conservation priority assessments are typically based on the levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Areas identified as important receive the majority of conservation investments, often...... facilitating further research that results in more species discoveries. Here, we test whether there is circularity between funding and perceived biodiversity, which may reinforce the conservation status of areas already perceived to be important while other areas with less initial funding may remain overlooked......, and variances decomposed in partial regressions. Cross-correlations are used to assess whether perceived biodiversity drives funding or vice versa. Results Funding explained 65% of variation in perceived biodiversity patterns – six times more variation than accounted for by 34 candidate environmental factors...

  13. Environmental gradient favours functionally diverse macrobenthic community in a placer rich tropical bay

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sivadas, S.K.; Ingole, B.S.; Fernandes, C.E.G.

    . Understanding the environmental variables that determine the biodiversity pattern will help in the effective conservation plans of coastal habitat. However, few studies have been carried out on the biodiversity-environment relation from the diverse tropical... is increasingly used to understand the biodiversity- environment relation and biodiversity-ecosystem function- ing and to decipher the effect of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem [9]. One of the greatest challenges when determining the impact from mining...

  14. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  15. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  16. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  17. An expert system model for mapping tropical wetlands and peatlands reveals South America as the largest contributor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumbricht, Thomas; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Verchot, Louis; Herold, Martin; Wittmann, Florian; Householder, Ethan; Herold, Nadine; Murdiyarso, Daniel

    2017-09-01

    Wetlands are important providers of ecosystem services and key regulators of climate change. They positively contribute to global warming through their greenhouse gas emissions, and negatively through the accumulation of organic material in histosols, particularly in peatlands. Our understanding of wetlands' services is currently constrained by limited knowledge on their distribution, extent, volume, interannual flood variability and disturbance levels. We present an expert system approach to estimate wetland and peatland areas, depths and volumes, which relies on three biophysical indices related to wetland and peat formation: (1) long-term water supply exceeding atmospheric water demand; (2) annually or seasonally water-logged soils; and (3) a geomorphological position where water is supplied and retained. Tropical and subtropical wetlands estimates reach 4.7 million km 2 (Mkm 2 ). In line with current understanding, the American continent is the major contributor (45%), and Brazil, with its Amazonian interfluvial region, contains the largest tropical wetland area (800,720 km 2 ). Our model suggests, however, unprecedented extents and volumes of peatland in the tropics (1.7 Mkm 2 and 7,268 (6,076-7,368) km 3 ), which more than threefold current estimates. Unlike current understanding, our estimates suggest that South America and not Asia contributes the most to tropical peatland area and volume (ca. 44% for both) partly related to some yet unaccounted extended deep deposits but mainly to extended but shallow peat in the Amazon Basin. Brazil leads the peatland area and volume contribution. Asia hosts 38% of both tropical peat area and volume with Indonesia as the main regional contributor and still the holder of the deepest and most extended peat areas in the tropics. Africa hosts more peat than previously reported but climatic and topographic contexts leave it as the least peat-forming continent. Our results suggest large biases in our current understanding of

  18. Tropical Rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigh, Ronald B.; Nations, James D.

    1980-01-01

    Presented is a summary of scientific knowledge about the rainforest environment, a tropical ecosystem in danger of extermination. Topics include the current state of tropical rainforests, the causes of rainforest destruction, and alternatives of rainforest destruction. (BT)

  19. Exploration of monitoring and modelling agrobiodiversity : from indicator development towards modelling biodiversity in agricultural systems on the sub-specific level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buiteveld, J.; Veller, van M.G.P.; Hiemstra, S.J.; Brink, ten B.; Tekelenburg, T.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this project is to contribute to the development of a number of key biodiversity indicators for crops and livestock in agriculture. On a global level both for crop and livestock species there has been a general tendency towards uniformity in the culture of crops and livestock

  20. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  1. Modelling the water balance of irrigated fields in tropical floodplain soils using Hydrus-1D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Abebech; Frankl, Amaury; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Tilahun, Seifu; Alamirew, Tena; Adgo, Enyew; Nyssen, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of evaporation, transpiration and deep percolation is crucial in irrigated agriculture and the sustainable management of water resources. Here, the Hydrus-1D process-based numerical model was used to estimate the actual transpiration, soil evaporation and deep percolation from irrigated fields of floodplain soils. Field experiments were conducted from Dec 2015 to May 2016 in a small irrigation scheme (50 ha) called 'Shina' located in the Lake Tana floodplains of Ethiopia. Six experimental plots (three for onion and three for maize) were selected along a topographic transect to account for soil and groundwater variability. Irrigation amount (400 to 550 mm during the growing period) was measured using V-notches installed at each plot boundary and daily groundwater levels were measured manually from piezometers. There was no surface runoff observed in the growing period and rainfall was measured using a manual rain gauge. All daily weather data required for the evapotranspiration calculation using Pen Man Monteith equation were collected from a nearby metrological station. The soil profiles were described for each field to include the vertical soil heterogeneity in the soil water balance simulations. The soil texture, organic matter, bulk density, field capacity, wilting point and saturated moisture content were measured for all the soil horizons. Soil moisture monitoring at 30 and 60 cm depths was performed. The soil hydraulic parameters for each horizon was estimated using KNN pedotransfer functions for tropical soils and were effectively fitted using the RETC program (R2= 0.98±0.011) for initial prediction. A local sensitivity analysis was performed to select and optimize the most important hydraulic parameters for soil water flow in the unsaturated zone. The most sensitive parameters were saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), saturated moisture content (θs) and pore size distribution (n). Inverse modelling using Hydrus-1D further optimized

  2. Comparison between the Community Land Model and the Terra Urb model in COSMO 5.0 over tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousse, Oscar; Wouters, Hendrik; Thiery, Wim; Demuzere, Matthias; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2017-04-01

    African urban inhabitants are expected to rise up to 75% of the continent's population at the horizon of 2050 (United Nations, 2014). This unprecedented demographic rise has led to an uncontrolled urbanization, and hence to a lack of public health infrastructures and administration within African cities. During the past decades, as an example, malaria's mitigating infrastructures have been constructed without considering the impact of urbanization. Indexes of malaria's risks have been based on rural areas, driving huge biases by not taking into account characteristics of the urban environment. In response to this challenge, the REACT project sets out to develop an index for malaria risk in urban tropical Africa. In particular, we aim to create two indexes that apply to the regional and local scale, respectively. Especially, intra-urban variability of the near-surface climate and the malaria's epidemiology thus needs to be described. To start, we first conduct a series of sensitivity simulations over a one-year period to determine which Land Surface Model (LSM) implemented within COSMO 5.0 is most suited for the purpose of this research. The model domain will cover the Lake Victoria area, integrating Kampala within its boundaries. The regional climate is considered as tropical and interactions between Lake Victoria and its surroundings have been proven (Thiery et al., 2015; 2016). Since malaria depends on typical meteorological and climatic factors such as precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and temperature, the first part of the project aims at finding which of the LSMs able to assess the more conveniently those epidemiological drivers. Indeed, the results of those runs will serve both the scales for inter- and intra-urban analysis (through a downscaling approach) and hence need to be as detailed as possible. The coupling of COSMO-CLM with the Community Land Model (COSMO-CLM2; Davin and Seneviratne, 2012) is known to have a better integration of vegetation

  3. Characterization and Modelling of a Tropical Groundwater Basin:La Villa Watershed, Republic of Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castrellon Romero, M. G.; Foglia, L.; Fogg, G. E.; Pulido Silva, G.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater resources in the tropics are often poorly understood due to lack of systematic data gathering. In the case of Panama, abundance of water resources for many years created the myth that groundwater was "infinite" and no research had been done to characterize and quantify this resource until very recently. Therefore, basic information such as a complete database of all the wells in the country is missing and hydrogeological maps have been constructed only at a national scale, which is not enough to develop studies for regional groundwater analysis. The study area chosen, La Villa Watershed, is a predominantly agricultural and cattle farming watershed located in the Azuero Peninsula (South Central Panama). Average annual precipitation in this region corresponds to 1,400 mm/year, which is about half the national average of 2,924 mm/year. About 90% of the rain occurs during the wet season (May-December) and 10% occurs during the dry season (January-April). The geology is characterized by intercalation of volcanic rocks, volcaniclastic sediments and consolidated sedimentary rocks, thus, the aquifer characteristics likely depend on secondary permeability of the rocks. Understanding the groundwater dynamics in this complex system is crucial for securing water availability for future generations. The presented work illustrates the challenges of setting up effective monitoring and field-based data gathering campaigns and also explains our approach for characterizing and modelling a groundwater basin with fractured-rock hydrogeology and very little information. The model reveals a pattern of groundwater flow that closely follows the topography of the region and also gives insights of the volume of groundwater available for extraction.

  4. The potential for species conservation in tropical secondary forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin L. Chazdon; Carlos A. Peres; Daisy Dent; Douglas Sheil; Ariel E. Lugo; David Lamb; Nigel E. Stork; Scott E. Miller

    2009-01-01

    In the wake of widespread loss of old-growth forests throughout the tropics, secondary forests will likely play a growing role in the conservation of forest biodiversity. We considered a complex hierarchy of factors that interact in space and time to determine the conservation potential of tropical secondary forests. Beyond the characteristics of local forest patches,...

  5. Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; Adam J. Terando; Jaime A. Collazo

    2015-01-01

    Many tropical islands have limited water resources with historically increasing demand, all potentially affected by a changing climate. The effects of climate change on island hydrology are difficult to model due to steep local precipitation gradients and sparse data. Thiswork uses 10 statistically downscaled general circulationmodels (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas...

  6. Linking benthic biodiversity and environmental conditions at the sea floor combining statistical and mechanistic modeling. Case study on the Black Sea's northwestern shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drion, Roxanne; Capet, Arthur; Gregoire, Marilaure

    2014-05-01

    The preservation of the health and biodiversity of benthic ecosystems is a crucial priority in order to achieve the Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine waters. The multiple pressures acting on the ocean, and in particular, on the coastal zone may prevent the maintenance of biodiversity either directly (e.g. trawling, dredging) or indirectly by modifying environmental conditions at the sea floor (e.g. eutrophication, pollution, acidification, warming). The management of the GES of the benthos in a changing environment and the definition of management strategies (e.g. nutrient reduction) that would preserve GES require tools able to predict the modifications of environmental conditions and to link these modifications to the status of the benthic system. Coupled biogeochemical-circulation models provide a large amount of information on physical (e.g. currents, salinity, temperature, shear stress) and biochemical conditions (e.g. oxygen, inorganic nutrients, sinking detritus) but cannot provide an information on species richness. We propose to link these aspects by applying canonical ordination techniques (e.g. Redundancy Analysis, CoInertia Analysis) on a large data set on macrobenthos collected on the Black Sea's north-western shelf with in-situ sediment data (e.g. granulometry, carbon and nitrogen content, C/N ratio, CaCO3 content) and bottom conditions (e.g. shear stress, level of oxygen stress, flux of organic matter to the sediments) provided by a three dimensional model. Beyond taxonomic description, the analysis is performed on the functional composition of the macrobenthos: A trait-based approach is used to assess the functional composition of the macrobenthos by associating the considered species to a list of biological, ecological and behavioral traits. This approach allows to appraise how local conditions determine the functional and taxonomical diversity and provides a mean to evaluate the impact of habitat alteration on the ecological role of

  7. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  8. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  9. Helminth parasites of South American fishes: current status and characterization as a model for studies of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque, J L; Pereira, F B; Alves, P V; Oliva, M E; Timi, J T

    2017-03-01

    The South American subcontinent supports one of the world's most diverse and commercially very important ichthyofauna. In this context, the study of South American fish parasites is of increased relevance in understanding their key roles in ecosystems, regulating the abundance or density of host populations, stabilizing food webs and structuring host communities. It is hard to estimate the number of fish parasites in South America. The number of fish species studied for parasites is still low (less than 10%), although the total number of host-parasite associations (HPAs) found in the present study was 3971. Monogeneans, with 835 species (1123 HPAs, 28.5%), and trematodes, with 662 species (1127 HPAs, 30.9%), are the more diverse groups. Data gathered from the literature are useful to roughly estimate species richness of helminths from South American fish, even though there are some associated problems: the reliability of information depends on accurate species identification; the lack of knowledge about life cycles; the increasing number of discoveries of cryptic species and the geographically biased number of studies. Therefore, the closest true estimations of species diversity and distribution will rely on further studies combining both molecular and morphological approaches with ecological data such as host specificity, geographical distribution and life-cycle data. Research on biodiversity of fish parasites in South America is influenced by problems such as funding, taxonomic impediments and dispersion of research groups. Increasing collaboration, interchange and research networks in the context of globalization will enable a promising future for fish parasitology in South America.

  10. Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi

    2015-04-01

    It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m

  11. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  12. Decadal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperature in shipboard measurements and in a Global Ocean-Atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vikram M.; Delworth, Thomas

    1995-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) variability was investigated in a 200-yr integration of a global model of the coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulations developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The second 100 yr of SST in the coupled model's tropical Atlantic region were analyzed with a variety of techniques. Analyses of SST time series, averaged over approximately the same subregions as the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) time series, showed that the GFDL SST anomalies also undergo pronounced quasi-oscillatory decadal and multidecadal variability but at somewhat shorter timescales than the GOSTA SST anomalies. Further analyses of the horizontal structures of the decadal timescale variability in the GFDL coupled model showed the existence of two types of variability in general agreement with results of the GOSTA SST time series analyses. One type, characterized by timescales between 8 and 11 yr, has high spatial coherence within each hemisphere but not between the two hemispheres of the tropical Atlantic. A second type, characterized by timescales between 12 and 20 yr, has high spatial coherence between the two hemispheres. The second type of variability is considerably weaker than the first. As in the GOSTA time series, the multidecadal variability in the GFDL SST time series has approximately opposite phases between the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies revealed a north-south bipolar pattern as the dominant pattern of decadal variability. It is suggested that the bipolar pattern can be interpreted as decadal variability of the interhemispheric gradient of SST anomalies. The decadal and multidecadal timescale variability of the tropical Atlantic SST, both in the actual and in the GFDL model, stands out significantly above the background 'red noise' and is coherent within each of the time series, suggesting that specific sets of

  13. Ecohydrological modeling of a tropical tidal catchment exposed to anthropogenic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Malte; Zeunert, Stephanie; Meon, Günter

    2016-04-01

    situation, meaningful results for discharge, concentration and nutrient load calibration could be achieved. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the water quality processes of nitrogen are dominated by terrestrial transformation processes. The developed model is able to simulate the characteristic dynamics of mineralization, which are typically observed in the humid tropics. Beside the implemented "Availability and Demand Approach", which is accounting for a temporary storage of nutrients in the microbial biomass, the implemented moisture functions are of particular importance. The consideration of sediment compartments and processes related to periphyton activity were key components in the water quality modeling of the catchment. The calibrated model was utilized to identify pollution sources and hot spots in the estuary and in the catchment. Furthermore, tracer simulations showed that the upper part of the estuary is more vulnerable to pollution then the lower part. This confirms the findings of the monitoring. In addition, predictions for water quality in response to anthropogenic changes regarding population, land use and industrial development were carried out with the coupled modeling system. Results of these scenarios are presented.

  14. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Model Simulations for Tropical and Continental Summertime Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Wu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The strength of the algorithm relies in part on the representativeness of the simulations; more realistic simulations provide a stronger link between the observables and simulated heating profiles. The current "TRMM" version of the CSH algorithm relies on 2D GCE simulations using an improved version of the Goddard 3-class ice scheme (3ICE), a moderate-sized domain, and 1-km horizontal resolution. Updating the LUTs, which are suitable for tropical and continental summertime environments requires new, more realistic GCE simulations. New simulations are performed using a new, improved 4-class ice scheme, which has been shown to outperform the 3ICE scheme, especially for intense convection. Additional grid configurations are also tested and evaluated to find the best overall setup to for re-deriving and updating the CSH tropical/summertime LUTs.

  15. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  16. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  17. Potential Vorticity Asymmetries and Tropical Cyclone Evolution in a Moist Three-Layer Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Lloyd J.

    2000-11-01

    The role of potential vorticity (PV) asymmetries in the evolution of a tropical cyclone is investigated using a three-layer model that includes boundary layer friction, surface moisture fluxes, and a convergence-based convective parameterization. In a benchmark experiment, a symmetric vortex is first spun up on an f plane for 24 h. The symmetric vortex has a realistic structure, including a local PV maximum inside its radius of maximum wind (RMW). A weak azimuthal-wavenumber 2 PV asymmetry confined to the lower two layers of the model is then added to the vortex near the RMW. After an additional 2 h (for a total 26-h simulation), the asymmetric PV anomaly produces changes in the symmetric vortex that have significant differences from those in dry experiments with the present model or previous barotropic studies. A diagnosis of the contributions to changes in the symmetric wind tendency due to the asymmetry confirm the dominance of horizontal eddy fluxes at early times. The barotropic eddy kick provided by the anomaly lasts 2 h, which is the damping timescale for the disturbance.Additional experiments with an imposed isolated double-PV anomaly are made. Contrary to expectation from the dry experiments or barotropic studies, based on arguments involving `wave activity,' moving the anomaly closer to the center of the vortex or farther out does not change the overall evolution of the symmetric vortex. The physical mechanism responsible for the differences between the barotropic studies and those including moist physics as well as for the robustness of the response is established using a budget for the asymmetric vorticity. It is shown that the interactions between the asymmetries and the symmetric hurricane vortex at early times depend on realistic features of the model hurricane and not on interactions between the asymmetries and the boundary layer, which possibly depend on the convective parameterization. In particular, the changes in the symmetric wind tendency due

  18. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  19. TEK and biodiversity management in agroforestry systems of different socio-ecological contexts of the Tehuacán Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo-Ramos, Mariana; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro

    2016-07-22

    Transformation of natural ecosystems into intensive agriculture is a main factor causing biodiversity loss worldwide. Agroforestry systems (AFS) may maintain biodiversity, ecosystem benefits and human wellbeing, they have therefore high potential for concealing production and conservation. However, promotion of intensive agriculture and disparagement of TEK endanger their permanence. A high diversity of AFS still exist in the world and their potentialities vary with the socio-ecological contexts. We analysed AFS in tropical, temperate, and arid environments, of the Tehuacan Valley, Mexico, to investigate how their capacity varies to conserve biodiversity and role of TEK influencing differences in those contexts. We hypothesized that biodiversity in AFS is related to that of forests types associated and the vigour of TEK and management. We conducted studies in a matrix of environments and human cultures in the Tehuacán Valley. In addition, we reviewed, systematized and compared information from other regions of Mexico and the world with comparable socio-ecological contexts in order to explore possible general patterns. Our study found from 26 % to nearly 90 % of wild plants species richness conserved in AFS, the decreasing proportion mainly associated to pressures for intensifying agricultural production and abandoning traditional techniques. Native species richness preserved in AFS is influenced by richness existing in the associated forests, but the main driver is how people preserve benefits of components and functions of ecosystems. Elements of modern agricultural production may coexist with traditional management patterns, but imposition of modern models may break possible balances. TEK influences decisions on what and how modern techniques may be advantageous for preserving biodiversity, ecosystem integrity in AFS and people's wellbeing. TEK, agroecology and other sciences may interact for maintaining and improving traditional AFS to increase biodiversity

  20. Marine biodiversity characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeuf, Gilles

    2011-05-01

    Oceans contain the largest living volume of the "blue" planet, inhabited by approximately 235-250,000 described species, all groups included. They only represent some 13% of the known species on the Earth, but the marine biomasses are really huge. Marine phytoplankton alone represents half the production of organic matter on Earth while marine bacteria represent more than 10%. Life first appeared in the oceans more than 3.8 billion years ago and several determining events took place that changed the course of life, ranging from the development of the cell nucleus to sexual reproduction going through multi-cellular organisms and the capture of organelles. Of the 31 animal phyla currently listed, 12 are exclusively marine phyla and have never left the ocean. An interesting question is to try to understand why there are so few marine species versus land species? This pattern of distribution seems pretty recent in the course of Evolution. From an exclusively marine world, since the beginning until 440 million years ago, land number of species much increased 110 million years ago. Specific diversity and ancestral roles, in addition to organizational models and original behaviors, have made marine organisms excellent reservoirs for identifying and extracting molecules (>15,000 today) with pharmacological potential. They also make particularly relevant models for both fundamental and applied research. Some marine models have been the source of essential discoveries in life sciences. From this diversity, the ocean provides humankind with renewable resources, which are highly threatened today and need more adequate management to preserve ocean habitats, stocks and biodiversity. Copyright © 2011 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong-In; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

  2. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  3. An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial

  4. Energy dynamics and modeled evapotranspiration from a wet tropical forest in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loescher, H. W.; Gholz, H. L.; Jacobs, J. M.; Oberbauer, S. F.

    2005-12-01

    The effects of albedo, net radiation ( Rn), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and surface conductances on energy fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET) were determined for a wet tropical forest in NE Costa Rica from 1997 to 2000. Sensible heat fluxes ( H) were estimated by the combination of eddy-covariance and the change in below-canopy heat profiles. Above-canopy latent heat fluxes ( λE) were estimated by the residuals from Rn and H, and below canopy λE fluxes. Surface reflectance (albedo) was ˜12% of incident solar radiation and did not differ seasonally. Rn was significantly different among years and explained ˜79% of the variation in H and λE fluxes. The effects of VPD did not explain any additional variation in heat fluxes. λE fluxes were always greater than H fluxes when Rn>40 W m -2. Understory heat fluxes were small and contributed little towards daily energy exchange, but may be significant when Rn is small. A dimensionless coefficient ( Ω) was used to determine the relative importance of aerodynamic conductance ( ga) and bulk canopy conductance ( gb) on λE flux. During the day, Ω was >0.6 and peaked at 0.85 suggesting that the forest was decoupled from physiological controls, λE fluxes are more dependent on Rn than water availability, and ga exerts more control on λE fluxes than gb. Because of these results, both the Priestly-Taylor and the Penman-Monteith models performed well using only Rn. Because the canopy is wet ˜32% of the time, there was better precision in estimating λE fluxes using the Priestly-Taylor model (with an empirically estimated α=1.24), when the canopy was wet. Annual ET were 1892, 2292 and 2230 mm for 1998, 1999 and 2000, respectively. Annual ET ranged from 54 to 66% of bulk precipitation. Using a Rutter-type model, interception losses were 17-18% of bulk precipitation. The overall amount of energy needed for annual ET accounted for ˜88 to 97% of total Rn.

  5. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  6. Diversity enhances carbon storage in tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poorter, L.; Sande, van der M.T.; Thompson, J.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Bongers, F.; Steege, ter H.; Pena Claros, M.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Dutrieux, L.P.; Levis, C.

    2015-01-01

    Aim Tropical forests store 25% of global carbon and harbour 96% of the world's tree species, but it is not clear whether this high biodiversity matters for carbon storage. Few studies have teased apart the relative importance of forest attributes and environmental drivers for ecosystem functioning,

  7. Connecting Earth observation to high-throughput biodiversity data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bush, Alex; Sollmann, Rahel; Wilting, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Understandably, given the fast pace of biodiversity loss, there is much interest in using Earth observation technology to track biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. However, because most biodiversity is invisible to Earth observation, indicators based on Earth observation could...... be misleading and reduce the effectiveness of nature conservation and even unintentionally decrease conservation effort. We describe an approach that combines automated recording devices, high-throughput DNA sequencing and modern ecological modelling to extract much more of the information available in Earth...

  8. Spatial congruence between carbon and biodiversity across forest landscapes of northern Borneo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Labrière

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how carbon and biodiversity vary across tropical forest landscapes is essential to achieving effective conservation of their respective hotspots in a global context of high deforestation. Whether conservation strategies aimed at protecting carbon hotspots can provide co-benefits for biodiversity protection, and vice versa, highly depends on the extent to which carbon and biodiversity co-occur at the landscape level. We used field measurements and easily accessible explanatory variables to model aboveground carbon density, soil carbon density and tree alpha diversity (response variables over a mostly forested area of northern Borneo. We assessed the spatial relationships between response variables and the spatial congruence of their hotspots. We found a significant positive relationship between aboveground carbon density and tree alpha diversity, and an above-than-expected-by-chance spatial congruence of their hotspots. Consequently, the protection of areas of high aboveground carbon density through financial mechanisms such as REDD+ is expected to benefit tree diversity conservation in the study area. On the other hand, relationships between soil carbon density and both aboveground carbon density and tree alpha diversity were negative and spatial congruences null. Hotspots of soil carbon density, mostly located in peatlands, therefore need specific conservation regulations, which the current moratorium on peat conversion in Indonesia is a first step toward.

  9. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  10. A simple spatial model exploring positive feedbacks at tropical alpine treelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bader, M.; Rietkerk, M.; Bregt, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change could cause alpine treelines to shift in altitude or to change their spatial pattern, but little is known about the drivers of treeline dynamics and patterning. The position and patterns of tropical alpine treelines are generally attributed to land use, especially burning. Species

  11. Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Grow Progressively in Size and Decay in Intensity after Reaching Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-17

    anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments on the original version of the manuscript. RKS and GK acknowledge financial sup- port for this research from...Nichols, T. A. Cram , and A. B. Saun- ders, 2006: A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 355–386. Montgomery, M. T

  12. Mud, muddle and models in the knowledge value-chain to action on tropical peatland conservation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordwijk, van M.; Matthews, R.B.; Agus, F.; Farmer, J.; Verchot, L.; Hergoualc’h, K.; Persch, S.; Tata, H.L.; Lusiana, B.; Widayati, A.; Dewi, S.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical peatlands are known not only for their high, area-based, carbon emissions in response to land-use change but also as hot spots of debate about associated data uncertainties. Perspectives are still evolving on factors underlying the variability and uncertainty. Debate includes the ways of

  13. A simple model for post-landfall intensity changes of tropical cyclone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A non-linear data fitting approach, the Genetic Algorithm, has been used to develop the above empirical equation using data for 74 tropical cyclones that made landfall on the coasts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar during the period 1978–2011. For an out of sample validation test, the mean absolute error of the ...

  14. A model for the identification of tropical weather systems over South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South Africa forms the southern end of Africa with its northern boundary at approximately 22°S and the southern-most point, Cape Agulhas, at approximately 35°S. During most of the year atmospheric circulation over South Africa, especially the central and southern regions, is dominated by extra tropical weather systems ...

  15. Modelling the impact of rural migration on tropical deforestation in South-West Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Rompaey, Anton; Debonne, N.; Vanmaercke, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    A major driver of tropical deforestation is rural frontier migration. In this paper an attempt is made to formally describe the human-environment interactions that are manifested in a forested system experiencing a large influx of rural migrants. The Guraferda district in South-West Ethiopia was