WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling tropical biodiversity

  1. Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J; de Santana, Charles N; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R; Pellissier, Loïc

    2016-05-06

    The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics.

  2. Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F.; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J.; de Santana, Charles N.; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2016-01-01

    The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics. PMID:27151103

  3. Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F.; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J.; de Santana, Charles N.; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2016-05-01

    The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics.

  4. Cycad diversification and tropical biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rull, V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The recent unexpected discovery that living Cycadales are not Jurassic-Cretaceous (200– 65 Mya relicts, as all their extant genera began to diversify during the Late Miocene (12 Mya, has challenged a classical evolutionary myth. This brief note shows how this finding may also provide new clues on the shaping of the high tropical biodiversity

    El reciente e inesperado descubrimiento de que las Cycadales actuales no son relictos Jurásico-Cretácicos (200-65 Mya, ya que todos sus géneros iniciaron su diversificación durante el Mioceno Tardío (12 Mya, ha puesto en entredicho un mito evolutivo clásico. En esta nota se expone como este hallazgo puede, además, proporcionar nuevas pistas sobre el origen de la elevada biodiversidad tropical.

  5. Plant biodiversity changes in Carboniferous tropical wetlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleal, C. J.; Uhl, D.; Cascales-Miñana, B.

    2012-01-01

    Using a combination of species richness, polycohort and constrained cluster analyses, the plant biodiversity of Pennsylvanian (late Carboniferous) tropical wetlands (“coal swamps”) has been investigated in five areas in Western Europe and eastern North America: South Wales, Pennines, Ruhr, Saarland...

  6. Quantifying and sustaining biodiversity in tropical agricultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendenhall, Chase D; Shields-Estrada, Analisa; Krishnaswami, Arjun J; Daily, Gretchen C

    2016-12-20

    Decision-makers increasingly seek scientific guidance on investing in nature, but biodiversity remains difficult to estimate across diverse landscapes. Here, we develop empirically based models for quantifying biodiversity across space. We focus on agricultural lands in the tropical forest biome, wherein lies the greatest potential to conserve or lose biodiversity. We explore two questions, drawing from empirical research oriented toward pioneering policies in Costa Rica. First, can remotely sensed tree cover serve as a reliable basis for improved estimation of biodiversity, from plots to regions? Second, how does tropical biodiversity change across the land-use gradient from native forest to deforested cropland and pasture? We report on understory plants, nonflying mammals, bats, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. Using data from 67,737 observations of 908 species, we test how tree cover influences biodiversity across space. First, we find that fine-scale mapping of tree cover predicts biodiversity within a taxon-specific radius (of 30-70 m) about a point in the landscape. Second, nearly 50% of the tree cover in our study region is embedded in countryside forest elements, small (typically 0.05-100 ha) clusters or strips of trees on private property. Third, most species use multiple habitat types, including crop fields and pastures (to which 15% of species are restricted), although some taxa depend on forest (57% of species are restricted to forest elements). Our findings are supported by comparisons of 90 studies across Latin America. They provide a basis for a planning tool that guides investments in tropical forest biodiversity similar to those for securing ecosystem services.

  7. The underestimated biodiversity of tropical grassy biomes.

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    Murphy, Brett P; Andersen, Alan N; Parr, Catherine L

    2016-09-19

    For decades, there has been enormous scientific interest in tropical savannahs and grasslands, fuelled by the recognition that they are a dynamic and potentially unstable biome, requiring periodic disturbance for their maintenance. However, that scientific interest has not translated into widespread appreciation of, and concern about threats to, their biodiversity. In terms of biodiversity, grassy biomes are considered poor cousins of the other dominant biome of the tropics-forests. Simple notions of grassy biomes being species-poor cannot be supported; for some key taxa, such as vascular plants, this may be valid, but for others it is not. Here, we use an analysis of existing data to demonstrate that high-rainfall tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) have vertebrate species richness comparable with that of forests, despite having lower plant diversity. The Neotropics stand out in terms of both overall vertebrate species richness and number of range-restricted vertebrate species in TGBs. Given high rates of land-cover conversion in Neotropical grassy biomes, they should be a high priority for conservation and greater inclusion in protected areas. Fire needs to be actively maintained in these systems, and in many cases re-introduced after decades of inappropriate fire exclusion. The relative intactness of TGBs in Africa and Australia make them the least vulnerable to biodiversity loss in the immediate future. We argue that, like forests, TGBs should be recognized as a critical-but increasingly threatened-store of global biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. Does Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function Literature Neglect Tropical Ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, David A; York, Paul H; Rasheed, Michael A; Northfield, Tobin D

    2017-05-01

    Current evidence suggests that there is a positive relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but few studies have addressed tropical ecosystems where the highest levels of biodiversity occur. We develop two hypotheses for the implications of generalizing from temperate studies to tropical ecosystems, and discuss the need for more tropical research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Agroforestry: a refuge for tropical biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagwat, Shonil A; Willis, Katherine J; Birks, H John B; Whittaker, Robert J

    2008-05-01

    As rates of deforestation continue to rise in many parts of the tropics, the international conservation community is faced with the challenge of finding approaches which can reduce deforestation and provide rural livelihoods in addition to conserving biodiversity. Much of modern-day conservation is motivated by a desire to conserve 'pristine nature' in protected areas, while there is growing recognition of the long-term human involvement in forest dynamics and of the importance of conservation outside protected areas. Agroforestry -- intentional management of shade trees with agricultural crops -- has the potential for providing habitats outside formally protected land, connecting nature reserves and alleviating resource-use pressure on conservation areas. Here we examine the role of agroforestry systems in maintaining species diversity and conclude that these systems can play an important role in biodiversity conservation in human-dominated landscapes.

  10. Plant biodiversity changes in Carboniferous tropical wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleal, C. J.; Uhl, D.; Cascales-Miñana, B.; Thomas, B. A.; Bashforth, A. R.; King, S. C.; Zodrow, E. L.

    2012-08-01

    Using a combination of species richness, polycohort and constrained cluster analyses, the plant biodiversity of Pennsylvanian (late Carboniferous) tropical wetlands ("coal swamps") has been investigated in five areas in Western Europe and eastern North America: South Wales, Pennines, Ruhr, Saarland and Sydney coal basins. In all cases, species richness expansion followed an essentially logistic curve typical of that associated with ecologically closed habitats, with niche saturation being achieved in about three million years. The resulting steady-state ("climax") coal swamp vegetation had a local-scale (within an area of c. 0.1 ha) species diversity in South Wales of 16 ± 7 and Simpson Diversity Indices of 4.53 ± 2.55, which are very similar to values obtained from studies on North American coal swamp vegetation. Landscape diversity (within an area 105 km2) varied between 50 and 100 species in the lower to middle Westphalian Stage, falling to about 40-50 species in the upper Westphalian Stage. Regional-scale diversity (within an area > 105 km2) is difficult to estimate but was at least 120 species. Species turn-over was typically very low, at about 4 species per million years, but there were a number of intervals of more rapid species turn-over in the early Langsettian, late Duckmantian, early Bolsovian and middle Asturian times, which are recognised today as biozonal boundaries. The swamps were mostly subject to ecological stasis during early and middle Westphalian times, although they contracted locally in response to drying of substrates. Later in Westphalian times, however, the swamps were subject to regional-scale changes in composition and aerial extent, probably in response to climate change. The coal swamps had a much lower species diversity compared to modern-day tropical rain forests.

  11. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.F. Laurance; D.C. Useche; J. Rendeiro; and others NO-VALUE; Ariel Lugo

    2012-01-01

    The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon1–3. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment...

  12. Combining high biodiversity with high yields in tropical agroforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, Yann; Barkmann, Jan; Juhrbandt, Jana; Kessler, Michael; Wanger, Thomas Cherico; Anshary, Alam; Buchori, Damayanti; Cicuzza, Daniele; Darras, Kevin; Putra, Dadang Dwi; Erasmi, Stefan; Pitopang, Ramadhanil; Schmidt, Carsten; Schulze, Christian H.; Seidel, Dominik; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stenchly, Kathrin; Vidal, Stefan; Weist, Maria; Wielgoss, Arno Christian; Tscharntke, Teja

    2011-01-01

    Local and landscape-scale agricultural intensification is a major driver of global biodiversity loss. Controversially discussed solutions include wildlife-friendly farming or combining high-intensity farming with land-sparing for nature. Here, we integrate biodiversity and crop productivity data for smallholder cacao in Indonesia to exemplify for tropical agroforests that there is little relationship between yield and biodiversity under current management, opening substantial opportunities for wildlife-friendly management. Species richness of trees, fungi, invertebrates, and vertebrates did not decrease with yield. Moderate shade, adequate labor, and input level can be combined with a complex habitat structure to provide high biodiversity as well as high yields. Although livelihood impacts are held up as a major obstacle for wildlife-friendly farming in the tropics, our results suggest that in some situations, agroforests can be designed to optimize both biodiversity and crop production benefits without adding pressure to convert natural habitat to farmland. PMID:21536873

  13. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  14. Pervasive defaunation of forest remnants in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo R Canale

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation and forest fragmentation are among the most important biodiversity conservation issues worldwide, yet local extinctions of millions of animal and plant populations stranded in unprotected forest remnants remain poorly explained. Here, we report unprecedented rates of local extinctions of medium to large-bodied mammals in one of the world's most important tropical biodiversity hotspots. We scrutinized 8,846 person-years of local knowledge to derive patch occupancy data for 18 mammal species within 196 forest patches across a 252,669-km(2 study region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We uncovered a staggering rate of local extinctions in the mammal fauna, with only 767 from a possible 3,528 populations still persisting. On average, forest patches retained 3.9 out of 18 potential species occupancies, and geographic ranges had contracted to 0-14.4% of their former distributions, including five large-bodied species that had been extirpated at a regional scale. Forest fragments were highly accessible to hunters and exposed to edge effects and fires, thereby severely diminishing the predictive power of species-area relationships, with the power model explaining only ~9% of the variation in species richness per patch. Hence, conventional species-area curves provided over-optimistic estimates of species persistence in that most forest fragments had lost species at a much faster rate than predicted by habitat loss alone.

  15. Pervasive defaunation of forest remnants in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Gustavo R; Peres, Carlos A; Guidorizzi, Carlos E; Gatto, Cassiano A Ferreira; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical deforestation and forest fragmentation are among the most important biodiversity conservation issues worldwide, yet local extinctions of millions of animal and plant populations stranded in unprotected forest remnants remain poorly explained. Here, we report unprecedented rates of local extinctions of medium to large-bodied mammals in one of the world's most important tropical biodiversity hotspots. We scrutinized 8,846 person-years of local knowledge to derive patch occupancy data for 18 mammal species within 196 forest patches across a 252,669-km(2) study region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We uncovered a staggering rate of local extinctions in the mammal fauna, with only 767 from a possible 3,528 populations still persisting. On average, forest patches retained 3.9 out of 18 potential species occupancies, and geographic ranges had contracted to 0-14.4% of their former distributions, including five large-bodied species that had been extirpated at a regional scale. Forest fragments were highly accessible to hunters and exposed to edge effects and fires, thereby severely diminishing the predictive power of species-area relationships, with the power model explaining only ~9% of the variation in species richness per patch. Hence, conventional species-area curves provided over-optimistic estimates of species persistence in that most forest fragments had lost species at a much faster rate than predicted by habitat loss alone.

  16. The origins of tropical marine biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Brian W; Rocha, Luiz A; Toonen, Robert J; Karl, Stephen A

    2013-06-01

    Recent phylogeographic studies have overturned three paradigms for the origins of marine biodiversity. (i) Physical (allopatric) isolation is not the sole avenue for marine speciation: many species diverge along ecological boundaries. (ii) Peripheral habitats such as oceanic archipelagos are not evolutionary graveyards: these regions can export biodiversity. (iii) Speciation in marine and terrestrial ecosystems follow similar processes but are not the same: opportunities for allopatric isolation are fewer in the oceans, leaving greater opportunity for speciation along ecological boundaries. Biodiversity hotspots such as the Caribbean Sea and the Indo-Pacific Coral Triangle produce and export species, but can also accumulate biodiversity produced in peripheral habitats. Both hotspots and peripheral ecosystems benefit from this exchange in a process dubbed biodiversity feedback.

  17. Restoring biodiversity and forest ecosystem services in degraded tropical landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Parrotta

    2010-01-01

    Over the past century, an estimated 850 million ha of the world’s tropical forests have been lost or severely degraded, with serious impacts on local and regional biodiversity. A significant proportion of these lands were originally cleared of their forest cover for agricultural development or other economic uses. Today, however, they provide few if any environmental...

  18. Biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems: a new conservation paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfecto, Ivette; Vandermeer, John

    2008-01-01

    It is almost certainly the case that many populations have always existed as metapopulations, leading to the conclusion that local extinctions are common and normally balanced by migrations. This conclusion has major consequences for biodiversity conservation in fragmented tropical forests and the agricultural matrices in which they are embedded. Here we make the argument that the conservation paradigm that focuses on setting aside pristine forests while ignoring the agricultural landscape is a failed strategy in light of what is now conventional wisdom in ecology. Given the fragmented nature of most tropical ecosystems, agricultural landscapes should be an essential component of any conservation strategy. We review the literature on biodiversity in tropical agricultural landscapes and present evidence that many tropical agricultural systems have high levels of biodiversity (planned and associated). These systems represent, not only habitat for biodiversity, but also a high-quality matrix that permits the movement of forest organisms among patches of natural vegetation. We review a variety of agroecosystem types and conclude that diverse, low-input systems using agroecological principles are probably the best option for a high-quality matrix. Such systems are most likely to be constructed by small farmers with land titles, who, in turn, are normally the consequence of grassroots social movements. Therefore, the new conservation paradigm should incorporate a landscape approach in which small farmers, through their social organizations, work with conservationists to create a landscape matrix dominated by productive agroecological systems that facilitate interpatch migration while promoting a sustainable and dignified livelihood for rural communities.

  19. Variable mating behaviors and tropical biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles H Cannon

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Current theoretical studies on mechanisms promoting species co-existence in diverse communities assume that species are fixed in their mating behavior. Each species is a discrete evolutionary unit, even though most empirical evidence indicates that inter-specific gene flow occurs in plant and animal groups. Here, in a data-driven meta-community model of species co-existence, we allow mating behavior to respond to local species composition and abundance. While individuals primarily out-cross, species maintain a diminished capacity for selfing and hybridization. Mate choice is treated as a variable behavior, which responds to intrinsic traits determining mate choice and the density and availability of sympatric inter-fertile individuals. When mate choice is strongly limited, even low survivorship of selfed offspring can prevent extinction of rare species. With increasing mate choice, low hybridization success rates maintain community level diversity for extended periods of time. In high diversity tropical tree communities, competition among sympatric congeneric species is negligible, because direct spatial proximity with close relatives is infrequent. Therefore, the genomic donorship presents little cost. By incorporating variable mating behavior into evolutionary models of diversification, we also discuss how participation in a syngameon may be selectively advantageous. We view this behavior as a genomic mutualism, where maintenance of genomic structure and diminished inter-fertility, allows each species in the syngameon to benefit from a greater effective population size during episodes of selective disadvantage. Rare species would play a particularly important role in these syngameons as they are more likely to produce heterospecific crosses and transgressive phenotypes. We propose that inter-specific gene flow can play a critical role by allowing genomic mutualists to avoid extinction and gain local adaptations.

  20. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F; Useche, D Carolina; Rendeiro, Julio; Kalka, Margareta; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Sloan, Sean P; Laurance, Susan G; Campbell, Mason; Abernethy, Kate; Alvarez, Patricia; Arroyo-Rodriguez, Victor; Ashton, Peter; Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Blom, Allard; Bobo, Kadiri S; Cannon, Charles H; Cao, Min; Carroll, Richard; Chapman, Colin; Coates, Rosamond; Cords, Marina; Danielsen, Finn; De Dijn, Bart; Dinerstein, Eric; Donnelly, Maureen A; Edwards, David; Edwards, Felicity; Farwig, Nina; Fashing, Peter; Forget, Pierre-Michel; Foster, Mercedes; Gale, George; Harris, David; Harrison, Rhett; Hart, John; Karpanty, Sarah; Kress, W John; Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; Logsdon, Willis; Lovett, Jon; Magnusson, William; Maisels, Fiona; Marshall, Andrew R; McClearn, Deedra; Mudappa, Divya; Nielsen, Martin R; Pearson, Richard; Pitman, Nigel; van der Ploeg, Jan; Plumptre, Andrew; Poulsen, John; Quesada, Mauricio; Rainey, Hugo; Robinson, Douglas; Roetgers, Christiane; Rovero, Francesco; Scatena, Frederick; Schulze, Christian; Sheil, Douglas; Struhsaker, Thomas; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Duncan; Timm, Robert; Urbina-Cardona, J Nicolas; Vasudevan, Karthikeyan; Wright, S Joseph; Arias-G, Juan Carlos; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Mark; Auzel, Philippe; Babaasa, Dennis; Babweteera, Fred; Baker, Patrick; Banki, Olaf; Bass, Margot; Bila-Isia, Inogwabini; Blake, Stephen; Brockelman, Warren; Brokaw, Nicholas; Brühl, Carsten A; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Chao, Jung-Tai; Chave, Jerome; Chellam, Ravi; Clark, Connie J; Clavijo, José; Congdon, Robert; Corlett, Richard; Dattaraja, H S; Dave, Chittaranjan; Davies, Glyn; Beisiegel, Beatriz de Mello; da Silva, Rosa de Nazaré Paes; Di Fiore, Anthony; Diesmos, Arvin; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doran-Sheehy, Diane; Eaton, Mitchell; Emmons, Louise; Estrada, Alejandro; Ewango, Corneille; Fedigan, Linda; Feer, François; Fruth, Barbara; Willis, Jacalyn Giacalone; Goodale, Uromi; Goodman, Steven; Guix, Juan C; Guthiga, Paul; Haber, William; Hamer, Keith; Herbinger, Ilka; Hill, Jane; Huang, Zhongliang; Sun, I Fang; Ickes, Kalan; Itoh, Akira; Ivanauskas, Natália; Jackes, Betsy; Janovec, John; Janzen, Daniel; Jiangming, Mo; Jin, Chen; Jones, Trevor; Justiniano, Hermes; Kalko, Elisabeth; Kasangaki, Aventino; Killeen, Timothy; King, Hen-biau; Klop, Erik; Knott, Cheryl; Koné, Inza; Kudavidanage, Enoka; Ribeiro, José Lahoz da Silva; Lattke, John; Laval, Richard; Lawton, Robert; Leal, Miguel; Leighton, Mark; Lentino, Miguel; Leonel, Cristiane; Lindsell, Jeremy; Ling-Ling, Lee; Linsenmair, K Eduard; Losos, Elizabeth; Lugo, Ariel; Lwanga, Jeremiah; Mack, Andrew L; Martins, Marlucia; McGraw, W Scott; McNab, Roan; Montag, Luciano; Thompson, Jo Myers; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nepal, Sanjay; Norconk, Marilyn; Novotny, Vojtech; O'Donnell, Sean; Opiang, Muse; Ouboter, Paul; Parker, Kenneth; Parthasarathy, N; Pisciotta, Kátia; Prawiradilaga, Dewi; Pringle, Catherine; Rajathurai, Subaraj; Reichard, Ulrich; Reinartz, Gay; Renton, Katherine; Reynolds, Glen; Reynolds, Vernon; Riley, Erin; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Rothman, Jessica; Round, Philip; Sakai, Shoko; Sanaiotti, Tania; Savini, Tommaso; Schaab, Gertrud; Seidensticker, John; Siaka, Alhaji; Silman, Miles R; Smith, Thomas B; de Almeida, Samuel Soares; Sodhi, Navjot; Stanford, Craig; Stewart, Kristine; Stokes, Emma; Stoner, Kathryn E; Sukumar, Raman; Surbeck, Martin; Tobler, Mathias; Tscharntke, Teja; Turkalo, Andrea; Umapathy, Govindaswamy; van Weerd, Merlijn; Rivera, Jorge Vega; Venkataraman, Meena; Venn, Linda; Verea, Carlos; de Castilho, Carolina Volkmer; Waltert, Matthias; Wang, Benjamin; Watts, David; Weber, William; West, Paige; Whitacre, David; Whitney, Ken; Wilkie, David; Williams, Stephen; Wright, Debra D; Wright, Patricia; Xiankai, Lu; Yonzon, Pralad; Zamzani, Franky

    2012-09-13

    The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world’s major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve ‘health’: about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

  1. Habitat modeling for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2006-01-01

    Habitat models address only 1 component of biodiversity but can be useful in addressing and managing single or multiple species and ecosystem functions, for projecting disturbance regimes, and in supporting decisions. I review categories and examples of habitat models, their utility for biodiversity conservation, and their roles in making conservation decisions. I...

  2. Thresholds of logging intensity to maintain tropical forest biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burivalova, Zuzana; Sekercioğlu, Cağan Hakkı; Koh, Lian Pin

    2014-08-18

    Primary tropical forests are lost at an alarming rate, and much of the remaining forest is being degraded by selective logging. Yet, the impacts of logging on biodiversity remain poorly understood, in part due to the seemingly conflicting findings of case studies: about as many studies have reported increases in biodiversity after selective logging as have reported decreases. Consequently, meta-analytical studies that treat selective logging as a uniform land use tend to conclude that logging has negligible effects on biodiversity. However, selectively logged forests might not all be the same. Through a pantropical meta-analysis and using an information-theoretic approach, we compared and tested alternative hypotheses for key predictors of the richness of tropical forest fauna in logged forest. We found that the species richness of invertebrates, amphibians, and mammals decreases as logging intensity increases and that this effect varies with taxonomic group and continental location. In particular, mammals and amphibians would suffer a halving of species richness at logging intensities of 38 m(3) ha(-1) and 63 m(3) ha(-1), respectively. Birds exhibit an opposing trend as their total species richness increases with logging intensity. An analysis of forest bird species, however, suggests that this pattern is largely due to an influx of habitat generalists into heavily logged areas while forest specialist species decline. Our study provides a quantitative analysis of the nuanced responses of species along a gradient of logging intensity, which could help inform evidence-based sustainable logging practices from the perspective of biodiversity conservation.

  3. The Value of Tropical Biodiversity in Rural Melanesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Foale

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss differences in the ways transnational conservationists and Melanesian farmers, hunters and fishers value "biodiversity". The money for conservation projects in developing countries originates from people who are embedded in a capitalist system, which allows engagement with nature as an abstract entity. Their western education has given them a scientific/ evolutionary-based worldview, which attributes intrinsic value to all species (and particular arrangements of species, e.g. rainforests and coral reefs, irrespective of economic value or ecosystem function. Because this value system is mostly not shared by the custodians of the biodiversity that conservationists want to save, alternative tactics and arguments are utilised. These inevitably take the form of so-called "win-win" economic rationales for preserving biodiversity, most of which do not work well (e.g. bioprospecting, ecotourism, non-timber forest products, environmental certification schemes, payments for ecosystem services, etc., for reasons which we detail. Agriculture- and aquaculture-based livelihoods appear to enjoy more success than the "win-win" options but do not necessarily obviate or deter further biodiversity loss. Artisanal use of species-poor but productive and resilient pelagic fisheries is increasing. These ecological and economic realities bring into sharp focus the importance of understanding differences in value systems for successful biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  4. Optimizing carbon storage and biodiversity protection in tropical agricultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, James J; Woodcock, Paul; Edwards, Felicity A; Wheeler, Charlotte; Medina Uribe, Claudia A; Haugaasen, Torbjørn; Edwards, David P

    2014-07-01

    With the rapidly expanding ecological footprint of agriculture, the design of farmed landscapes will play an increasingly important role for both carbon storage and biodiversity protection. Carbon and biodiversity can be enhanced by integrating natural habitats into agricultural lands, but a key question is whether benefits are maximized by including many small features throughout the landscape ('land-sharing' agriculture) or a few large contiguous blocks alongside intensive farmland ('land-sparing' agriculture). In this study, we are the first to integrate carbon storage alongside multi-taxa biodiversity assessments to compare land-sparing and land-sharing frameworks. We do so by sampling carbon stocks and biodiversity (birds and dung beetles) in landscapes containing agriculture and forest within the Colombian Chocó-Andes, a zone of high global conservation priority. We show that woodland fragments embedded within a matrix of cattle pasture hold less carbon per unit area than contiguous primary or advanced secondary forests (>15 years). Farmland sites also support less diverse bird and dung beetle communities than contiguous forests, even when farmland retains high levels of woodland habitat cover. Landscape simulations based on these data suggest that land-sparing strategies would be more beneficial for both carbon storage and biodiversity than land-sharing strategies across a range of production levels. Biodiversity benefits of land-sparing are predicted to be similar whether spared lands protect primary or advanced secondary forests, owing to the close similarity of bird and dung beetle communities between the two forest classes. Land-sparing schemes that encourage the protection and regeneration of natural forest blocks thus provide a synergy between carbon and biodiversity conservation, and represent a promising strategy for reducing the negative impacts of agriculture on tropical ecosystems. However, further studies examining a wider range of ecosystem

  5. Anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity: a network structure and ecosystem functioning perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Rebecca J

    2010-11-27

    Huge areas of diverse tropical forest are lost or degraded every year with dramatic consequences for biodiversity. Deforestation and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species and climate change are the main drivers of tropical forest biodiversity loss. Most studies investigating these threats have focused on changes in species richness or species diversity. However, if we are to understand the absolute and long-term effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests, we should also consider the interactions between species, how those species are organized in networks, and the function that those species perform. I discuss our current knowledge of network structure and ecosystem functioning, highlighting empirical examples of their response to anthropogenic impacts. I consider the future prospects for tropical forest biodiversity, focusing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in secondary forest. Finally, I propose directions for future research to help us better understand the effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity.

  6. Anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity: a network structure and ecosystem functioning perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Morris, Rebecca J.

    2010-01-01

    Huge areas of diverse tropical forest are lost or degraded every year with dramatic consequences for biodiversity. Deforestation and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species and climate change are the main drivers of tropical forest biodiversity loss. Most studies investigating these threats have focused on changes in species richness or species diversity. However, if we are to understand the absolute and long-term effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests, we should also...

  7. Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian J; Coombes, Emma; Fitzherbert, Emily; Binner, Amy; Bad'ura, Tomáš; Carbone, Chris; Fisher, Brendan; Naidoo, Robin; Watkinson, Andrew R

    2015-06-16

    The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing--and to-date insufficient--approaches to conservation.

  8. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, J.A.; O’Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Jansen, P.A.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity

  9. Road-networks, a practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in Tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosaka, T.; Yamada, T.; Okuda, T.

    2014-02-01

    Tropical forests sustain the most diverse plants and animals in the world, but are also being lost most rapidly. Rapid assessment and monitoring using remote sensing on biodiversity of tropical forests is needed to predict and evaluate biodiversity loss by human activities. Identification of reliable indicators of forest biodiversity and/or its loss is an urgent issue. In the present paper, we propose the density of road networks in tropical forests can be a good and practical indicator of human impacts on biodiversity in tropical forests through reviewing papers and introducing our preliminary survey in peninsular Malaysia. Many previous studies suggest a strong negative impact of forest roads on biodiversity in tropical rainforests since they changes microclimate, soil properties, drainage patterns, canopy openness and forest accessibility. Moreover, our preliminary survey also showed that even a narrow logging road (6 m wide) significantly lowered abundance of dung beetles (well-known bio-indicator in biodiversity survey in tropical forests) near the road. Since these road networks are readily to be detected with remote sensing approach such as aerial photographs and Lider, regulation and monitoring of the road networks using remote sensing techniques is a key to slow down the rate of biodiversity loss due to forest degradation in tropical forests.

  10. Would protecting tropical forest fragments provide carbon and biodiversity cobenefits under REDD+?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnago, Luiz Fernando S; Magrach, Ainhoa; Laurance, William F; Martins, Sebastião V; Meira-Neto, João Augusto A; Simonelli, Marcelo; Edwards, David P

    2015-09-01

    Tropical forests store vast amounts of carbon and are the most biodiverse terrestrial habitats, yet they are being converted and degraded at alarming rates. Given global shortfalls in the budgets required to prevent carbon and biodiversity loss, we need to seek solutions that simultaneously address both issues. Of particular interest are carbon-based payments under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism to also conserve biodiversity at no additional cost. One potential is for REDD+ to protect forest fragments, especially within biomes where contiguous forest cover has diminished dramatically, but we require empirical tests of the strength of any carbon and biodiversity cobenefits in such fragmented systems. Using the globally threatened Atlantic Forest landscape, we measured above-ground carbon stocks within forest fragments spanning 13 to 23 442 ha in area and with different degrees of isolation. We related these stocks to tree community structure and to the richness and abundance of endemic and IUCN Red-listed species. We found that increasing fragment size has a positive relationship with above-ground carbon stock and with abundance of IUCN Red-listed species and tree community structure. We also found negative relationships between distance from large forest block and tree community structure, endemic species richness and abundance, and IUCN Red-listed species abundance. These resulted in positive congruence between carbon stocks and Red-listed species, and the abundance and richness of endemic species, demonstrating vital cobenefits. As such, protecting forest fragments in hotspots of biodiversity, particularly larger fragments and those closest to sources, offers important carbon and biodiversity cobenefits. More generally, our results suggest that macroscale models of cobenefits under REDD+ have likely overlooked key benefits at small scales, indicating the necessity to apply models that include finer

  11. Prospects for tropical forest biodiversity in a human-modified world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Toby A; Barlow, Jos; Chazdon, Robin; Ewers, Robert M; Harvey, Celia A; Peres, Carlos A; Sodhi, Navjot S

    2009-06-01

    The future of tropical forest biodiversity depends more than ever on the effective management of human-modified landscapes, presenting a daunting challenge to conservation practitioners and land use managers. We provide a critical synthesis of the scientific insights that guide our understanding of patterns and processes underpinning forest biodiversity in the human-modified tropics, and present a conceptual framework that integrates a broad range of social and ecological factors that define and contextualize the possible future of tropical forest species. A growing body of research demonstrates that spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity are the dynamic product of interacting historical and contemporary human and ecological processes. These processes vary radically in their relative importance within and among regions, and have effects that may take years to become fully manifest. Interpreting biodiversity research findings is frequently made difficult by constrained study designs, low congruence in species responses to disturbance, shifting baselines and an over-dependence on comparative inferences from a small number of well studied localities. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the potential prospects for biodiversity conservation can be explained by regional differences in biotic vulnerability and anthropogenic legacies, an ever-tighter coupling of human-ecological systems and the influence of global environmental change. These differences provide both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Building upon our synthesis we outline a simple adaptive-landscape planning framework that can help guide a new research agenda to enhance biodiversity conservation prospects in the human-modified tropics.

  12. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  13. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A.; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H.; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R.; Willig, Michael R.; Winarni, Nurul L.; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  14. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Beaudrot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes

  15. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, Jorge A; O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R; Willig, Michael R; Winarni, Nurul L; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  16. Consequences of tropical land use for multitrophic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Andrew D; Jochum, Malte; Mumme, Steffen; Haneda, Noor Farikhah; Farajallah, Achmad; Widarto, Tri Heru; Brose, Ulrich

    2014-10-28

    Our knowledge about land-use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is mostly limited to single trophic levels, leaving us uncertain about whole-community biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships. We analyse consequences of the globally important land-use transformation from tropical forests to oil palm plantations. Species diversity, density and biomass of invertebrate communities suffer at least 45% decreases from rainforest to oil palm. Combining metabolic and food-web theory, we calculate annual energy fluxes to model impacts of land-use intensification on multitrophic ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate a 51% reduction in energy fluxes from forest to oil palm communities. Species loss clearly explains variation in energy fluxes; however, this relationship depends on land-use systems and functional feeding guilds, whereby predators are the most heavily affected. Biodiversity decline from forest to oil palm is thus accompanied by even stronger reductions in functionality, threatening to severely limit the functional resilience of communities to cope with future global changes.

  17. Biodiversity: modelling angiosperms as networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, O R; Borin, M R

    2000-11-01

    In the neotropics, one of the last biological frontiers, the major ecological concern should not involve local strategies, but global effects often responsible for irreparable damage. For a holistic approach, angiosperms are ideal model systems dominating most land areas of the present world in an astonishing variety of form and function. Recognition of biogeographical patterns requires new methodologies and entails several questions, such as their nature, dynamics and mechanism. Demographical patterns of families, modelled via species dominance, reveal the existence of South American angiosperm networks converging at the central Brazilian plateau. Biodiversity of habitats, measured via taxonomic uniqueness, reveal higher creative power at this point of convergence than in more peripheral regions. Compositional affinities of habitats, measured via bioconnectivity, reveal the decisive role of ecotones in the exchange or redistribution of information, energy and organisms among the ecosystems. Forming dynamic boundaries, ecotones generate and relay evolutionary novelty, and integrate all neotropical ecosystems into a single vegetation net. Connectivity in such plant webs may depend on mycorrhizal links. If sufficiently general such means of metabolic transfer will require revision of the chemical composition of many plants.

  18. Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Mercedes M C; Roitman, Iris; Aide, T Mitchell; Alencar, Ane; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz; Asner, Gregory P; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Chambers, Jeffrey; Costa, Marcos H; Fanin, Thierry; Ferreira, Laerte G; Ferreira, Joice; Keller, Michael; Magnusson, William E; Morales-Barquero, Lucia; Morton, Douglas; Ometto, Jean P H B; Palace, Michael; Peres, Carlos A; Silvério, Divino; Trumbore, Susan; Vieira, Ima C G

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

  19. Estimating animal biodiversity across taxa in tropical forests using shape-based waveform lidar metrics and Landsat image time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muss, J. D.; Aguilar-Amuchastegui, N.; Henebry, G. M.

    2012-12-01

    Studies have shown that forest structural heterogeneity is a key variable for estimating the diversity, richness, and community structure of forest species such as birds, butterflies, and dung beetles. These relationships are especially relevant in tropical forests when assessing the impacts of forest management plans on indicator groups and species. Typically, forest structure and biodiversity are evaluated using field surveys, which are expensive and spatially limited. An alternative is to use the growing archive of imagery to assess the impacts that disturbances (such as those caused by selective logging) have on habitats and biodiversity. But it can be difficult to capture subtle differences in the three-dimensional (3D) forest structure at the landscape scale that are important for modeling these relationships. We use a unique confluence of active and passive optical sensor data, field surveys of biodiversity, and stand management data to link metrics of spatial and spatio-temporal heterogeneity with key indicators of sustainable forest management. Field sites were selected from tropical forest stands along the Atlantic Slope of Costa Rica for which the management history was known and in which biodiversity surveys were conducted. The vertical dimension of forest structure was assessed by applying two shape-based metrics, the centroid (C) and radius of gyration (RG), to full waveform lidar data collected by the LVIS platform over central Costa Rica in 2005. We developed a map of the vertical structure of the forest by implementing a recursive function that used C and RG to identify major segments of each waveform. Differences in 3D structure were related to estimates of animal biodiversity, size and type of disturbance, and time since disturbance—critical measurements for achieving verifiable sustainable management and conservation of biodiversity in tropical forests. Moreover, the relationships found between 3D structure and biodiversity suggests that it

  20. Interpreting Biodiversity: A Manual for Environmental Educators in the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domroese, Margret C.; Sterling, Eleanor J.

    This manual was developed for educators and natural resource managers who are establishing interpretive programs where biodiversity is the richest and most threatened. The manual contains five units which are based on the experiences of staff at the American Museum of Natural History and represent the key steps of designing an interpretation…

  1. Biodiversity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobson, A. (Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)); Carper, R. (John Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States))

    1993-10-30

    Traditional herbalists act as a first-level screen for plants which may contain chemicals with significant pharmaceutical potential. Unfortunately, the destruction of rain forests is likely to lead to the extinction of many plant species before their potential can be explored. 165,000 km[sup 2] of tropical forest and 90,000 km[sup 2] of range land are destroyed or degraded each year, an annual attrition rate of about 1% for tropical forest. If these losses continue until only land set aside in parks is left, 66% of plant and 69% of animal species may be lost. The burning of forests to clear land for human settlement also makes a significant contribution to the greenhouse gases that are raising global mean temperatures. There are synergisms--here between rainforest destruction, loss of biodiversity, and global climate change--with potential impacts on health. Some aspects will be explored more fully in the contributions on vector-borne diseases and direct impacts and in the collaborative review of monitoring with which the series ends.

  2. Limited carbon and biodiversity co-benefits for tropical forest mammals and birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beaudrot, L.; Kroetz, K.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Amaral, I.; Breuer, T.; Fletcher, C.D.; Jansen, P.A.; Kenfack, D.; Andelman, S.

    2016-01-01

    The conservation of tropical forest carbon stocks offers the opportunity to curb climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and simultaneously conserve biodiversity. However, there has been considerable debate about the extent to which carbon storage will provide benefits

  3. Limited carbon and biodiversity co-benefits for tropical forest mammals and birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beaudrot, L.; Kroetz, K.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Amaral, I.; Breuer, T.; Fletcher, C.D.; Jansen, P.A.; Kenfack, D.; Andelman, S.

    2016-01-01

    The conservation of tropical forest carbon stocks offers the opportunity to curb climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and simultaneously conserve biodiversity. However, there has been considerable debate about the extent to which carbon storage will provide benefits

  4. Tropical Marginal Seas: Priority Regions for Managing Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinnon, A. David; Williams, Alan; Young, Jock; Ceccarelli, Daniela; Dunstan, Piers; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Watson, Reg; Brinkman, Richard; Cappo, Mike; Duggan, Samantha; Kelley, Russell; Ridgway, Ken; Lindsay, Dhugal; Gledhill, Daniel; Hutton, Trevor; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marginal seas (TMSs) are natural subregions of tropical oceans containing biodiverse ecosystems with conspicuous, valued, and vulnerable biodiversity assets. They are focal points for global marine conservation because they occur in regions where human populations are rapidly expanding. Our review of 11 TMSs focuses on three key ecosystems - coral reefs and emergent atolls, deep benthic systems, and pelagic biomes - and synthesizes, illustrates, and contrasts knowledge of biodiversity, ecosystem function, interaction between adjacent habitats, and anthropogenic pressures. TMSs vary in the extent that they have been subject to human influence - from the nearly pristine Coral Sea to the heavily exploited South China and Caribbean Seas - but we predict that they will all be similarly complex to manage because most span multiple national jurisdictions. We conclude that developing a structured process to identify ecologically and biologically significant areas that uses a set of globally agreed criteria is a tractable first step toward effective multinational and transboundary ecosystem management of TMSs.

  5. Limited carbon and biodiversity co-benefits for tropical forest mammals and birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Kroetz, Kailin; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Amaral, Eda; Breuer, Thomas; Fletcher, Christine; Jansen, Patrick A; Kenfack, David; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Marshall, Andrew R; Martin, Emanuel H; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; O'Brien, Timothy; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Roy, Cisquet Hector; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Carlos E F; Spironello, Wilson Roberto; Valencia, Renato; Zvoleff, Alex; Ahumada, Jorge; Andelman, Sandy

    2016-06-01

    The conservation of tropical forest carbon stocks offers the opportunity to curb climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and simultaneously conserve biodiversity. However, there has been considerable debate about the extent to which carbon stock conservation will provide benefits to biodiversity in part because whether forests that contain high carbon density in their aboveground biomass also contain high animal diversity is unknown. Here, we empirically examined medium to large bodied ground-dwelling mammal and bird (hereafter "wildlife") diversity and carbon stock levels within the tropics using camera trap and vegetation data from a pantropical network of sites. Specifically, we tested whether tropical forests that stored more carbon contained higher wildlife species richness, taxonomic diversity, and trait diversity. We found that carbon stocks were not a significant predictor for any of these three measures of diversity, which suggests that benefits for wildlife diversity will not be maximized unless wildlife diversity is explicitly taken into account; prioritizing carbon stocks alone will not necessarily meet biodiversity conservation goals. We recommend conservation planning that considers both objectives because there is the potential for more wildlife diversity and carbon stock conservation to be achieved for the same total budget if both objectives are pursued in tandem rather than independently. Tropical forests with low elevation variability and low tree density supported significantly higher wildlife diversity. These tropical forest characteristics may provide more affordable proxies of wildlife diversity for future multi-objective conservation planning when fine scale data on wildlife are lacking.

  6. Species ages in neutral biodiversity models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A; O'Dwyer, James P

    2014-05-01

    Biogeography seeks to understand the mechanisms that drive biodiversity across long temporal and large spatial scales. Theoretical models of biogeography can be tested by comparing their predictions of quantities such as species ages against empirical estimates. It has previously been claimed that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography predicts species ages that are unrealistically long. Any improved theory of biodiversity must rectify this problem, but first it is necessary to quantify the problem precisely. Here we provide analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities. We analyse a spatially implicit metacommunity model and solve for both the zero-sum and non-zero-sum cases. We explain why our new expressions are, in the context of biodiversity, usually more appropriate than those previously imported from neutral molecular evolution. Because of the time symmetry of the spatially implicit neutral model, our expressions also lead directly to formulas for species persistence times and species lifetimes. We use our new expressions to estimate species ages of forest trees under a neutral model and find that they are about an order of magnitude shorter than those predicted previously but still unrealistically long. In light of our results, we discuss different models of biogeography that may solve the problem of species ages.

  7. Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

    2016-09-01

    Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

  8. Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function during the restoration of a tropical forest in south china

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Tropical forests continue to vanish rapidly,but few long-term studies have ever examined if and how the lost forests can be restored.Based on a 45-year restoration study in south China,we found that a tropical rain forest,once completely destroyed,could not recover naturally without deliberate restoration efforts.We identified two kinds of thresholds that must be overcome with human ameliorative measures before the ecosystem was able to recover.The first threshold was imposed primarily by extreme physical conditions such as exceedingly high surface temperature and impoverished soil,while the second was characterized by a critical level of biodiversity and a landscape context that accommodates dispersal and colonization processes.Our three treatment catchments(un-restored barren land,single-species plantation,and mixed-forest stand)exhibited dramatically different changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over 4 decades.The mixed forest,having the highest level of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning,possesses several major properties of tropical rain forest.These findings may have important implications for the restoration of many severely degraded or lost tropical forest ecosystems.

  9. Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function during the restoration of a tropical forest in south China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Hai; LI ZhiAn; SHEN WeiJun; YU ZuoYue; PENG ShaoLin; LIAO ChongHui; DING MingMao; WU JianGuo

    2007-01-01

    Tropical forests continue to vanish rapidly, but few long-term studies have ever examined if and how the lost forests can be restored. Based on a 45-year restoration study in south China, we found that a tropical rain forest, once completely destroyed, could not recover naturally without deliberate restoration efforts. We identified two kinds of thresholds that must be overcome with human ameliorative measures before the ecosystem was able to recover. The first threshold was imposed primarily by extreme physical conditions such as exceedingly high surface temperature and impoverished soil, while the second was characterized by a critical level of biodiversity and a landscape context that accommodates dispersal and colonization processes. Our three treatment catchments (un-restored barren land, single-species plantation, and mixed-forest stand) exhibited dramatically different changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over 4 decades. The mixed forest, having the highest level of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, possesses several major properties of tropical rain forest.These findings may have important implications for the restoration of many severely degraded or lost tropical forest ecosystems.

  10. Biodiversity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Tropical to Temperate Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond L. Specht

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During the short period of annual foliage growth in evergreen plant communities, aerodynamic fluxes (frictional, thermal, evaporative in the atmosphere as it flows over and through a plant community determine the Foliage Projective Covers and leaf attributes in overstorey and understorey strata. The number of leaves produced on each vertical foliage shoot depends on available soil water and nutrients during this growth period. The area of all leaves exposed to solar radiation determines net photosynthetic fixation of the plant community throughout the year. In turn, the species richness (number of species per hectare of both plants and resident vertebrates is determined. The species richness of unicellular algae and small multicellular isopods in permanent freshwater lagoons in Northern Australia may possibly have been increased by radiation released from nearby uranium deposits. Evolution of new angiosperms probably occurred in refugia during periods of extreme drought. When favourable climates were restored, the vegetation expanded to result in high Gamma Biodiversity (number of plant species per region but with each major plant community having essentially the same species richness (number of plant species per hectare. The probable effects of pollution and Global Warming on biodiversity in Australian ecosystems, that experience seasonal drought, are discussed.

  11. A model of provenance applied to biodiversity datasets

    OpenAIRE

    Amanqui, Flor K; De Nies, Tom; Dimou, Anastasia; Verborgh, Ruben; Mannens, Erik; Van De Walle, Rik; Moreira, Dilvan

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the Web has become one of the main sources of biodiversity information. An increasing number of biodiversity research institutions add new specimens and their related information to their biological collections and make this information available on the Web. However, mechanisms which are currently available provide insufficient provenance of biodiversity information. In this paper, we propose a new biodiversity provenance model extending the W3C PROV Data Model. Biodiversity data is...

  12. Can joint carbon and biodiversity management in tropical agroforestry landscapes be optimized?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Michael; Hertel, Dietrich; Jungkunst, Hermann F; Kluge, Jürgen; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Bos, Merijn; Buchori, Damayanti; Gerold, Gerhard; Gradstein, S Robbert; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Moser, Gerald; Pitopang, Ramadhanil; Saleh, Shahabuddin; Schulze, Christian H; Sporn, Simone G; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S; Tscharntke, Teja

    2012-01-01

    Managing ecosystems for carbon storage may also benefit biodiversity conservation, but such a potential 'win-win' scenario has not yet been assessed for tropical agroforestry landscapes. We measured above- and below-ground carbon stocks as well as the species richness of four groups of plants and eight of animals on 14 representative plots in Sulawesi, Indonesia, ranging from natural rainforest to cacao agroforests that have replaced former natural forest. The conversion of natural forests with carbon stocks of 227-362 Mg C ha(-1) to agroforests with 82-211 Mg C ha(-1) showed no relationships to overall biodiversity but led to a significant loss of forest-related species richness. We conclude that the conservation of the forest-related biodiversity, and to a lesser degree of carbon stocks, mainly depends on the preservation of natural forest habitats. In the three most carbon-rich agroforestry systems, carbon stocks were about 60% of those of natural forest, suggesting that 1.6 ha of optimally managed agroforest can contribute to the conservation of carbon stocks as much as 1 ha of natural forest. However, agroforestry systems had comparatively low biodiversity, and we found no evidence for a tight link between carbon storage and biodiversity. Yet, potential win-win agroforestry management solutions include combining high shade-tree quality which favours biodiversity with cacao-yield adapted shade levels.

  13. Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jos; Lennox, Gareth D; Ferreira, Joice; Berenguer, Erika; Lees, Alexander C; Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Ferraz, Silvio Frosini de Barros; Louzada, Julio; Oliveira, Victor Hugo Fonseca; Parry, Luke; Solar, Ricardo Ribeiro de Castro; Vieira, Ima C G; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Begotti, Rodrigo Anzolin; Braga, Rodrigo F; Cardoso, Thiago Moreira; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Souza, Carlos M; Moura, Nárgila G; Nunes, Sâmia Serra; Siqueira, João Victor; Pardini, Renata; Silveira, Juliana M; Vaz-de-Mello, Fernando Z; Veiga, Ruan Carlo Stulpen; Venturieri, Adriano; Gardner, Toby A

    2016-07-07

    Concerted political attention has focused on reducing deforestation, and this remains the cornerstone of most biodiversity conservation strategies. However, maintaining forest cover may not reduce anthropogenic forest disturbances, which are rarely considered in conservation programmes. These disturbances occur both within forests, including selective logging and wildfires, and at the landscape level, through edge, area and isolation effects. Until now, the combined effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the conservation value of remnant primary forests has remained unknown, making it impossible to assess the relative importance of forest disturbance and forest loss. Here we address these knowledge gaps using a large data set of plants, birds and dung beetles (1,538, 460 and 156 species, respectively) sampled in 36 catchments in the Brazilian state of Pará. Catchments retaining more than 69–80% forest cover lost more conservation value from disturbance than from forest loss. For example, a 20% loss of primary forest, the maximum level of deforestation allowed on Amazonian properties under Brazil’s Forest Code, resulted in a 39–54% loss of conservation value: 96–171% more than expected without considering disturbance effects. We extrapolated the disturbance-mediated loss of conservation value throughout Pará, which covers 25% of the Brazilian Amazon. Although disturbed forests retained considerable conservation value compared with deforested areas, the toll of disturbance outside Pará’s strictly protected areas is equivalent to the loss of 92,000–139,000 km2 of primary forest. Even this lowest estimate is greater than the area deforested across the entire Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2015 (ref. 10). Species distribution models showed that both landscape and within-forest disturbances contributed to biodiversity loss, with the greatest negative effects on species of high conservation and functional value. These results demonstrate an urgent need

  14. Carbon pools recover more quickly than plant biodiversity in tropical secondary forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Philip A; Newton, Adrian C; Bullock, James M

    2013-12-22

    Although increasing efforts are being made to restore tropical forests, little information is available regarding the time scales required for carbon and plant biodiversity to recover to the values associated with undisturbed forests. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a meta-analysis comparing data from more than 600 secondary tropical forest sites with nearby undisturbed reference forests. Above-ground biomass approached equivalence to reference values within 80 years since last disturbance, whereas below-ground biomass took longer to recover. Soil carbon content showed little relationship with time since disturbance. Tree species richness recovered after about 50 years. By contrast, epiphyte richness did not reach equivalence to undisturbed forests. The proportion of undisturbed forest trees and epiphyte species found in secondary forests was low and changed little over time. Our results indicate that carbon pools and biodiversity show different recovery rates under passive, secondary succession and that colonization by undisturbed forest plant species is slow. Initiatives such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and REDD+ should therefore encourage active management to help to achieve their aims of restoring both carbon and biodiversity in tropical forests.

  15. Carbon stock corridors to mitigate climate change and promote biodiversity in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott; Laporte, Nadine

    2014-02-01

    A key issue in global conservation is how biodiversity co-benefits can be incorporated into land use and climate change mitigation activities, particularly those being negotiated under the United Nations to reduce emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Protected areas have been the dominant strategy for tropical forest conservation and they have increased substantially in recent decades. Avoiding deforestation by preserving carbon stored in vegetation between protected areas provides an opportunity to mitigate the effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity by maintaining habitat connectivity across landscapes. Here we use a high-resolution data set of vegetation carbon stock to map corridors traversing areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics. The derived corridors contain 15% of the total unprotected aboveground carbon in the tropical region. A large number of corridors have carbon densities that approach or exceed those of the protected areas they connect, suggesting these are suitable areas for achieving both habitat connectivity and climate change mitigation benefits. To further illustrate how economic and biological information can be used for corridor prioritization on a regional scale, we conducted a multicriteria analysis of corridors in the Legal Amazon, identifying corridors with high carbon, high species richness and endemism, and low economic opportunity costs. We also assessed the vulnerability of corridors to future deforestation threat.

  16. Species interactions regulate the collapse of biodiversity and ecosystem function in tropical forest fragments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregman, Tom P; Lees, Alexander C; Seddon, Nathalie; Macgregor, Hannah E A; Darski, Bianca; Aleixo, Alexandre; Bonsall, Michael B; Tobias, Joseph A

    2015-10-01

    Competitive interactions among species with similar ecological niches are known to regulate the assembly of biological communities. However, it is not clear whether such forms of competition can predict the collapse of communities and associated shifts in ecosystem function in the face of environmental change. Here, we use phylogenetic and functional trait data to test whether communities of two ecologically important guilds of tropical birds (frugivores and insectivores) are structured by species interactions in a fragmented Amazonian forest landscape. In both guilds, we found that forest patch size, quality, and degree of isolation influence the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of communities, with small, degraded, or isolated forest patches having an increased signature of competition (i.e., phylogenetic and functional trait overdispersion in relation to null models). These results suggest that local extinctions in the context of fragmentation are nonrandom, with a consistent bias toward more densely occupied regions of niche space. We conclude that the loss of biodiversity in fragmented landscapes is mediated by niche-based competitive interactions among species, with potentially far-reaching implications for key ecosystem processes, including seed dispersal and plant damage by phytophagous insects.

  17. Relationships between meiofaunal biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production in different tropical habitats and oceanic regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Pusceddu

    Full Text Available Tropical marine ecosystems are among the most diverse of the world oceans, so that assessing the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem functions (BEF is a crucial step to predict consequences of biodiversity loss. Most BEF studies in marine ecosystems have been carried out on macrobenthic diversity, whereas the influence of the meiofauna on ecosystem functioning has received much less attention. We compared meiofaunal and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production across seagrass, mangrove and reef sediments in the Caribbean, Celebes and Red Seas. For all variables we report the presence of differences among habitats within the same region, and among regions within the same habitat. In all regions, the richness of meiofaunal taxa in reef and seagrass sediments is higher than in mangrove sediments. The sediments of the Celebes Sea show the highest meiofaunal biodiversity. The composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies significantly among habitats in the same region. The nematode beta diversity among habitats within the same region is higher than the beta diversity among regions. Although one site per habitat was considered in each region, these results suggest that the composition of meiofaunal assemblages varies primarily among biogeographic regions, whereas the composition of nematode assemblages varies more considerably among habitats. Meiofauna and nematode biodiversity and prokaryotic heterotrophic production, even after the removal of covariate effects linked with longitude and the quantity and nutritional quality of organic matter, are positively and linearly linked both across regions and within each habitat type. Our results confirm that meiofauna and nematode biodiversity may influence benthic prokaryotic activity, which, in turn, implies that diversity loss could have negative impacts on ecosystem functioning in these systems.

  18. Relationships between Plant Biodiversity and Soil Fertility in a Mature Tropical Forest, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin B. Nadeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to study relationships between plant biodiversity and soil chemical fertility in a mature tropical forest of Costa Rica. Soil samples were collected in nine sampling plots (5 m by 25 m in order to identify P, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Zn, Mn, Cu, and Al and total N contents, soil fertility index, CEC, pH, and C/N ratio. Furthermore, species richness, Shannon-Wiener and Simpson’s species diversities, structural richness, and structural diversity were calculated for each plot. Simple linear regression analyses were conducted. Tree species richness was inversely related to concentration levels of K, Ca, and P, CEC, and soil fertility index. Therefore, higher tree species richness tended to be found on sites with lower soil fertility, which is the complete opposite of temperate forests. As a result, tropical and temperate forest ecology should be considered separately. Shannon-Wiener tree species diversity was positively correlated to C/N ratio. Herb structural richness was positively correlated with soil fertility index and P concentration. Therefore, herb structural richness may be a good indicator of soil fertility. This study gives important insights on ecological relationships between plant biodiversity and soil chemical fertility in a primary tropical forest.

  19. A one ocean model of biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dor, Ronald K.; Fennel, Katja; Berghe, Edward Vanden

    2009-09-01

    The history of life is written in the ocean, and the history of the ocean is written in DNA. Geologists have shown us that hundreds of millions of years of ocean history can be revealed from records of a single phylum in cores of mud from abyssal plains. We are now accumulating genetic tools to unravel the relationships of hundreds of phyla to track this history back billions of years. The technologies demonstrated by the Census of Marine Life (CoML) mean that the ocean is no longer opaque or unknowable. The secrets of the largest component of the biosphere are knowable. The cost of understanding the history of ocean life is not cheap, but it is also not prohibitive. A transparent, open ocean is available for us to use to understand ourselves. This article develops a model of biodiversity equilibration in a single, physically static ocean as a step towards biodiversity in physically complex real oceans. It attempts to be quantitative and to simultaneously account for biodiversity patterns from bacteria to whales focusing on emergent properties rather than details. Biodiversity reflects long-term survival of DNA sequences, stabilizing "ecosystem services" despite environmental change. In the ocean, mechanisms for ensuring survival range from prokaryotes maintaining low concentrations of replicable DNA throughout the ocean volume, anticipating local change, to animals whose mobility increases with mass to avoid local change through movement. Whales can reach any point in the ocean in weeks, but prokaryotes can only diffuse. The high metabolic costs of mobility are offset by the dramatically lower number of DNA replicates required to ensure survival. Reproduction rates probably scale more or less inversely with body mass. Bacteria respond in a week, plankton in a year, whales in a century. We generally lack coherent theories to explain the origins of animals (metazoans) and the contributions of biodiversity to ecosystems. The One Ocean Model suggests that mobile

  20. Biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available is well endowed with both variety and abundance of living things, together referred to as biological diversity, or biodiversity. That biodiversity, with some exceptions, is currently in a better condition than in many parts of the world. Biodiversity... Africa and the southern Cape (Cowling and others 1996). In between are the subtropical deserts, which are generally a zone of lower diversity: for example, a vast part of the Sahara, the Ténéré, is home to only 20 plant species in an area of about...

  1. Generalized model of island biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-04-01

    The dynamics of a local community of competing species with weak immigration from a static regional pool is studied. Implementing the generalized competitive Lotka-Volterra model with demographic noise, a rich dynamics with four qualitatively distinct phases is unfolded. When the overall interspecies competition is weak, the island species recapitulate the mainland species. For higher values of the competition parameter, the system still admits an equilibrium community, but now some of the mainland species are absent on the island. Further increase in competition leads to an intermittent "disordered" phase, where the dynamics is controlled by invadable combinations of species and the turnover rate is governed by the migration. Finally, the strong competition phase is glasslike, dominated by uninvadable states and noise-induced transitions. Our model contains, as a special case, the celebrated neutral island theories of Wilson-MacArthur and Hubbell. Moreover, we show that slight deviations from perfect neutrality may lead to each of the phases, as the Hubbell point appears to be quadracritical.

  2. Geospatial observations on biodiversity and biogeochemistry of a tropical forest rhizosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Jeffrey Arien

    Understanding the links between biodiversity and biogeochemistry in a spatial context within tropical forest plant communities is an unresolved problem. High plant diversity -- phylogenetic, functional, and genetic -- often characteristic of tropical forests, is poorly understood in the context of soils. I collected and georeferenced a large sample of surface soil cores (n=625, 6.25 cm diameter x 10 cm depth) from the Barro Colorado Island (BCI) 50 ha (0.5 km2) Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP), Republic of Panama (9.15 N, 79.8 W) -- described in Chapter One. In Chapter Two, I tested a commonly made assumption in research on plot scales in tropical forests, that abiotic controls entirely explain plot scale soil heterogeneity. To do this, I analyzed a high spatial resolution and multiple spatial scale (multiscale) set of topography features from airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), a bedrock map, and the geospatial soil chemical observations to test if abiotic controls (erosion, hydrology, bedrock) were sufficient to explain soil heterogeneity in the BCI tree community. In Chapter Three, I evaluate whether spatial variation in soil organic matter (SOM) and patterns of correlation with rock-derived nutrients are consistent with plants changing soils through litterfall. In Chapter Four, I document the first use of high-throughput DNA sequencing data for observing plant species roots in a tropical forest rhizosphere. The main findings of my dissertation are that at the plot scale in a tropical forest soil chemical heterogeneity was weakly related to abiotic controls and rock-derived macronutrients vary in association strength with soil organic matter in a manner consistent with plants exerting strong biotic controls on the spatial heterogeneity of soil calcium. Furthermore, that research is needed to understand plant nutrient cycling within the context of tropical forest plant communities.

  3. The effects of tree species grouping in tropical rain forest modelling - simulations with the individual based model FORMIND

    OpenAIRE

    Köhler, Peter; Huth, A.

    1998-01-01

    Due to high biodiversity in tropical rainforests, tree species are aggregatedinto functional groups for modelling purposes. In this article the influencesof two different classifications of tropical tree species into functionalgroups on the output of a rainforest model are analysed. The FORMIND modelis documented. FORMIND simulates the tree growth of tropical rainforests.The model is individual-based and developed from the FORMIX3 model. In themodel, trees compete for light and space in plots...

  4. High-throughput biodiversity analysis: Rapid assessment of species richness and ecological interactions of Chrysomelidae (Coleoptera) in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Zurita, Jesús; Cardoso, Anabela; Coronado, Indiana; De la Cadena, Gissela; Jurado-Rivera, José A; Maes, Jean-Michel; Montelongo, Tinguaro; Nguyen, Dinh Thi; Papadopoulou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity assessment has been the focus of intense debate and conceptual and methodological advances in recent years. The cultural, academic and aesthetic impulses to recognise and catalogue the diversity in our surroundings, in this case of living objects, is furthermore propelled by the urgency of understanding that we may be responsible for a dramatic reduction of biodiversity, comparable in magnitude to geological mass extinctions. One of the most important advances in this attempt to characterise biodiversity has been incorporating DNA-based characters and molecular taxonomy tools to achieve faster and more efficient species delimitation and identification, even in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. In this assay we advocate for a broad understanding of Biodiversity as the inventory of species in a given environment, but also the diversity of their interactions, with both aspects being attainable using molecular markers and phylogenetic approaches. We exemplify the suitability and utility of this framework for large-scale biodiversity assessment with the results of our ongoing projects trying to characterise the communities of leaf beetles and their host plants in several tropical setups. Moreover, we propose that approaches similar to ours, establishing the inventories of two ecologically inter-related and species-rich groups of organisms, such as insect herbivores and their angiosperm host-plants, can serve as the foundational stone to anchor a comprehensive assessment of diversity, also in tropical environments, by subsequent addition of trophic levels.

  5. Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

    2012-04-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

  6. Use of ancient sedimentary DNA as a novel conservation tool for high-altitude tropical biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Sanne; McGlynn, Gayle; Epp, Laura S; Taylor, David; Pimentel, Manuel; Gizaw, Abel; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Brochmann, Christian; Popp, Magnus

    2014-04-01

    Conservation of biodiversity may in the future increasingly depend upon the availability of scientific information to set suitable restoration targets. In traditional paleoecology, sediment-based pollen provides a means to define preanthropogenic impact conditions, but problems in establishing the exact provenance and ecologically meaningful levels of taxonomic resolution of the evidence are limiting. We explored the extent to which the use of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) may complement pollen data in reconstructing past alpine environments in the tropics. We constructed a record of afro-alpine plants retrieved from DNA preserved in sediment cores from 2 volcanic crater sites in the Albertine Rift, eastern Africa. The record extended well beyond the onset of substantial anthropogenic effects on tropical mountains. To ensure high-quality taxonomic inference from the sedaDNA sequences, we built an extensive DNA reference library covering the majority of the afro-alpine flora, by sequencing DNA from taxonomically verified specimens. Comparisons with pollen records from the same sediment cores showed that plant diversity recovered with sedaDNA improved vegetation reconstructions based on pollen records by revealing both additional taxa and providing increased taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, combining the 2 measures assisted in distinguishing vegetation change at different geographic scales; sedaDNA almost exclusively reflects local vegetation, whereas pollen can potentially originate from a wide area that in highlands in particular can span several ecozones. Our results suggest that sedaDNA may provide information on restoration targets and the nature and magnitude of human-induced environmental changes, including in high conservation priority, biodiversity hotspots, where understanding of preanthropogenic impact (or reference) conditions is highly limited.

  7. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netherlands, Edward C; Cook, Courtney A; Kruger, Donnavan J D; du Preez, Louis H; Smit, Nico J

    2015-04-01

    Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P < 0.01) in the prevalence of parasitaemia was found across species, those semi-aquatic species demonstrating the highest, followed by semi-terrestrial frog species. None of those species described as purely terrestrial and aquatic were infected. Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively). Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity.

  8. Biodiversity of frog haemoparasites from sub-tropical northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward C. Netherlands

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Since South Africa boasts a high biodiversity of frog species, a multispecies haemoparasite survey was conducted by screening the blood from 29 species and 436 individual frogs. Frogs were collected at three localities in sub-tropical KwaZulu-Natal, a hotspot for frog diversity. Twenty per cent of the frogs were infected with at least one of five groups of parasites recorded. Intraerythrocytic parasites comprising Hepatozoon, Dactylosoma, and viral or bacterial organisms, as well as extracellular parasites including trypanosomes and microfilarid nematodes were found. A significant difference (P < 0.01 in the prevalence of parasitaemia was found across species, those semi-aquatic species demonstrating the highest, followed by semi-terrestrial frog species. None of those species described as purely terrestrial and aquatic were infected. Hepatozoon and Trypanosoma species accounted for most of the infections, the former demonstrating significant differences in intensity of infection across species, families and habitat types (P = 0.028; P = 0.006; P = 0.007 respectively. Per locality, the first, the formally protected Ndumo Game Reserve, had the highest biodiversity of haemoparasite infections, with all five groups of parasites recorded. The other two sites, that is the area bordering the reserve and the Kwa Nyamazane Conservancy, had a lower diversity with no parasite infections recorded and only Hepatozoon species recorded respectively. Such findings could be ascribed to the anthropogenic impact on the latter two sites, the first by the rural village activities, and the second by the bordering commercial sugar cane agriculture. Future studies should include both morphological and molecular descriptions of the above parasites, as well as the identification of potential vectors, possibly clarifying the effects human activities may have on frog haemoparasite life cycles and as such their biodiversity.

  9. Biodiversity patterns of free-living marine nematodes in a tropical bay: Cienfuegos, Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenteros, M.; Ruiz-Abierno, A.; Fernández-Garcés, R.; Pérez-García, J. A.; Díaz-Asencio, L.; Vincx, M.; Decraemer, W.

    2009-11-01

    Spatial and temporal biodiversity patterns of free-living marine nematodes were studied in Cienfuegos Bay, a tropical semi-enclosed basin in the Caribbean Sea. Taxonomic (to species level) and functional (biological trait) approaches were applied for describing the assemblage structure and relating it to abiotic environment based on a sampling scheme in six subtidal stations and three months. Biological trait approach added relevant information to species pattern regarding relationships between diversity patterns and the abiotic environment. The most common morphotypes were deposit feeding nematodes, with colonising abilities of 2-3 (in a scale from 1 to 5), tail conical cylindrical or filiforme and body slender; and their abundance were correlated with depth, organic matter and silt/clay fraction. In spite of a high turnover of species, functional diversity of assemblages did not change notably in space and time. A result probably due to sampling of the habitat pool of species and to low heterogeneity of the studied muddy bottoms. Chemical pollution (organic enrichment and heavy metals) and hydrodynamic regime possibly drove the biodiversity patterns. Spatial distribution of assemblages support the existence of two well differentiated basins inside the bay, the northern basin more polluted than the southern one. The low hydrodynamic regime would determine a poor dispersion of nematodes resulting in high spatial variance in the assemblage structure; and also the associated hypoxic conditions and pollutants in sediments can explain the dominance of tolerant nematode species such as Daptonema oxycerca, Sabatieria pulchra, Terschellingia gourbaultae, and Terschellingia longicaudata. A comparison of spatial-temporal patterns of biodiversity between Cienfuegos Bay and other semi-enclosed bays in temperate regions suggests several similarities: nematode assemblages are strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbance, temporal trends are weak or overridden by spatial

  10. Species undersampling in tropical bat surveys: effects on emerging biodiversity patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Christoph F J; Aguiar, Ludmilla M S; Aguirre, Luis F; Baumgarten, Julio; Clarke, Frank M; Cosson, Jean-François; Estrada Villegas, Sergio; Fahr, Jakob; Faria, Deborah; Furey, Neil; Henry, Mickaël; Jenkins, Richard K B; Kunz, Thomas H; Cristina MacSwiney González, M; Moya, Isabel; Pons, Jean-Marc; Racey, Paul A; Rex, Katja; Sampaio, Erica M; Stoner, Kathryn E; Voigt, Christian C; von Staden, Dietrich; Weise, Christa D; Kalko, Elisabeth K V

    2015-01-01

    Undersampling is commonplace in biodiversity surveys of species-rich tropical assemblages in which rare taxa abound, with possible repercussions for our ability to implement surveys and monitoring programmes in a cost-effective way. We investigated the consequences of information loss due to species undersampling (missing subsets of species from the full species pool) in tropical bat surveys for the emerging patterns of species richness (SR) and compositional variation across sites. For 27 bat assemblage data sets from across the tropics, we used correlations between original data sets and subsets with different numbers of species deleted either at random, or according to their rarity in the assemblage, to assess to what extent patterns in SR and composition in data subsets are congruent with those in the initial data set. We then examined to what degree high sample representativeness (r ≥ 0·8) was influenced by biogeographic region, sampling method, sampling effort or structural assemblage characteristics. For SR, correlations between random subsets and original data sets were strong (r ≥ 0·8) with moderate (ca. 20%) species loss. Bias associated with information loss was greater for species composition; on average ca. 90% of species in random subsets had to be retained to adequately capture among-site variation. For nonrandom subsets, removing only the rarest species (on average c. 10% of the full data set) yielded strong correlations (r > 0·95) for both SR and composition. Eliminating greater proportions of rare species resulted in weaker correlations and large variation in the magnitude of observed correlations among data sets. Species subsets that comprised ca. 85% of the original set can be considered reliable surrogates, capable of adequately revealing patterns of SR and temporal or spatial turnover in many tropical bat assemblages. Our analyses thus demonstrate the potential as well as limitations for reducing survey effort and streamlining

  11. Biogeochemistry and biodiversity interact to govern N2 fixers (Fabaceae) across Amazon tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterman, Sarah; Hedin, Lars; Lloyd, Jon; Quesada, Beto

    2015-04-01

    Dinitrogen (N2)-fixing trees in the Fabaceae fulfill a central role in tropical rainforests by supplying nitrogen from the atmosphere, yet whether they will support a forest CO2 sink in the future by alleviating nitrogen limitation may depend on whether and how they are controlled by local environmental conditions. Theory predicts that soil nutrients govern the function of N2 fixers, yet there have been no large-scale field-based tests of this idea. Moreover, recent findings indicate that N2-fixing species behave differently in biogeochemical cycles, suggesting that any environmental control may differ by species, and that the diversity of N2-fixing trees may be critical for ensuring tropical forest function. In this talk, we will use the RAINFOR dataset of 108 (~1.0 ha) lowland tropical rainforest plots from across the Amazon Basin to test whether the abundance and diversity of N2-fixing trees are controlled by soil nutrient availability (i.e., increasing with phosphorus and decreasing with nitrogen), or if fixer abundance and diversity simply follow the dynamics of all tree species. We also test an alternative - but not mutually exclusive - hypothesis that the governing factor for fixers is forest disturbance. Results show a surprising lack of control by local nutrients or disturbance on the abundance or diversity of N2 fixers. The dominant driver of fixer diversity was the total number of tree species, with fixers comprising 10% of all species in a forest plot (R2 = 0.75, linear regression). When considering the dominant taxa of N2 fixers (Inga, Swartzia, Tachigali) alone, environmental factors (nitrogen, phosphorus and disturbance) became important and clearly governed their abundance. These taxa, which contain >60% of N2-fixing trees in the data set, appear to have evolved to specialize in different local environmental conditions. The strong biogeochemistry-by-biodiversity interaction observed here points to a need to consider individual species or taxa of N2

  12. Phylogenies support out-of-equilibrium models of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Marc; Lambert, Amaury; Morlon, Hélène

    2015-04-01

    There is a long tradition in ecology of studying models of biodiversity at equilibrium. These models, including the influential Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, have been successful at predicting major macroecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions. But they have failed to predict macroevolutionary patterns, such as those captured in phylogenetic trees. Here, we develop a model of biodiversity in which all individuals have identical demographic rates, metacommunity size is allowed to vary stochastically according to population dynamics, and speciation arises naturally from the accumulation of point mutations. We show that this model generates phylogenies matching those observed in nature if the metacommunity is out of equilibrium. We develop a likelihood inference framework that allows fitting our model to empirical phylogenies, and apply this framework to various mammalian families. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that biodiversity dynamics are out of equilibrium.

  13. Study of Value Assessment Model of Forest Biodiversity Based on the Habitat Area in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Zhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest biodiversity is an important part of biodiversity. There is an essential significance of studying forest biodiversity assessment for promoting the conservation of biodiversity and enhancing biodiversity management in China. This study collected forest biodiversity habitat area, output value of forestry and so on forest biodiversity assessment-related data from 2001 to 2010 in China and using optimal control methods in cybernetics to establish value assessment model of forest biodiversity based on the data of habitat area, as well as calculated the optimal price for forest biodiversity assessment. The result showed that forest biodiversity habitat assessment of the optimal price is 9,970 RMB Yuan/ha and there is a dynamic model for forest biodiversity assessment. Finally, the study suggested that studies of forest biodiversity assessment in China, in particular, studying of valuation of forest biodiversity should consider using shadow price and the social, economic and other factors should be taken into account

  14. Environmental sustainability model and biodiversity preservation in Central Rhodopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Grigorova

    2013-03-01

    In fact that model is composed of many components and considers a number of important aspects. Its application will contribute to the sustainable use of natural resources and preserved biodiversity for future generations.

  15. Forests and drugs: coca-driven deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávalos, Liliana M; Bejarano, Adriana C; Hall, Mark A; Correa, H Leonardo; Corthals, Angelique; Espejo, Oscar J

    2011-02-15

    Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.

  16. Marine biodiversity of an Eastern Tropical Pacific oceanic island, Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco (also known as Cocos Island is an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; it is part of the largest national park of Costa Rica and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The island has been visited since the 16th Century due to its abundance of freshwater and wood. Marine biodiversity studies of the island started in the late 19th Century, with an intense period of research in the 1930’s, and again from the mid 1990’s to the present. The information is scattered and, in some cases, in old publications that are difficult to access. Here I have compiled published records of the marine organisms of the island. At least 1688 species are recorded, with the gastropods (383 species, bony fishes (354 spp. and crustaceans (at least 263 spp. being the most species-rich groups; 45 species are endemic to Isla del Coco National Park (2.7% of the total. The number of species per kilometer of coastline and by square kilometer of seabed shallower than 200m deep are the highest recorded in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Although the marine biodiversity of Isla del Coco is relatively well known, there are regions that need more exploration, for example, the south side, the pelagic environments, and deeper waters. Also, several groups of organisms, such as the flatworms, nematodes, nemerteans, and gelatinous zooplankton, have been observed around the Island but have been poorly studied or not at all.La Isla del Coco es una isla oceánica en el Pacífico Tropical Oriental; es parte del Parque Nacional más grande de Costa Rica y es un sitio de Patrimonio Mundial. La isla ha sido visitada desde el Siglo XVI por su abundancia de agua dulce y árboles. Estudios de biodiversidad marina de la isla empezaron a finales del Siglo XIX, con un intenso período de investigación en la década de 1930, y de nuevo desde mediados de la década de 1990 al presente. La información sobre organismos marinos se encuentra dispersa y en algunos casos en publicaciones

  17. Do riparian reserves support dung beetle biodiversity and ecosystem services in oil palm-dominated tropical landscapes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Claudia L; Slade, Eleanor M; Mann, Darren J; Lewis, Owen T

    2014-04-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are major threats to global biodiversity, ecological functions, and ecosystem services. The rapid expansion of oil palm in forested tropical landscapes is of particular concern given their high biodiversity. Identifying management approaches that maintain native species and associated ecological processes within oil palm plantations is therefore a priority. Riparian reserves are strips of forest retained alongside rivers in cultivated areas, primarily for their positive hydrological impact. However, they can also support a range of forest-dependent species or ecosystem services. We surveyed communities of dung beetles and measured dung removal activity in an oil palm-dominated landscape in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The species richness, diversity, and functional group richness of dung beetles in riparian reserves were significantly higher than in oil palm, but lower than in adjacent logged forests. The community composition of the riparian reserves was more similar to logged forest than oil palm. Despite the pronounced differences in biodiversity, we did not find significant differences in dung removal rates among land uses. We also found no evidence that riparian reserves enhance dung removal rates within surrounding oil palm. These results contrast previous studies showing positive relationships between dung beetle species richness and dung removal in tropical forests. We found weak but significant positive relationships between riparian reserve width and dung beetle diversity, and between reserve vegetation complexity and dung beetle abundance, suggesting that these features may increase the conservation value of riparian reserves. Synthesis and applications: The similarity between riparian reserves and logged forest demonstrates that retaining riparian reserves increases biodiversity within oil palm landscapes. However, the lack of correlation between dung beetle community characteristics and dung removal highlights the

  18. The importance of biodiversity and dominance for multiple ecosystem functions in a human-modified tropical landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohbeck, Madelon; Bongers, Frans; Martinez-Ramos, Miguel; Poorter, Lourens

    2016-10-01

    Many studies suggest that biodiversity may be particularly important for ecosystem multifunctionality, because different species with different traits can contribute to different functions. Support, however, comes mostly from experimental studies conducted at small spatial scales in low-diversity systems. Here, we test whether different species contribute to different ecosystem functions that are important for carbon cycling in a high-diversity human-modified tropical forest landscape in Southern Mexico. We quantified aboveground standing biomass, primary productivity, litter production, and wood decomposition at the landscape level, and evaluated the extent to which tree species contribute to these ecosystem functions. We used simulations to tease apart the effects of species richness, species dominance and species functional traits on ecosystem functions. We found that dominance was more important than species traits in determining a species' contribution to ecosystem functions. As a consequence of the high dominance in human-modified landscapes, the same small subset of species mattered across different functions. In human-modified landscapes in the tropics, biodiversity may play a limited role for ecosystem multifunctionality due to the potentially large effect of species dominance on biogeochemical functions. However, given the spatial and temporal turnover in species dominance, biodiversity may be critically important for the maintenance and resilience of ecosystem functions.

  19. A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Kevin; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Latitudinal and elevational biodiversity gradients fascinate ecologists, and have inspired dozens of explanations. The geometry of the abiotic environment is sometimes thought to contribute to these gradients, yet evaluations of geometric explanations are limited by a fragmented understanding of the diversity patterns they predict. This article presents a mathematical model that synthesizes multiple pathways by which environmental geometry can drive diversity gradients. The model characterizes species ranges by their environmental niches and limits on range sizes and places those ranges onto the simplified geometries of a sphere or cone. The model predicts nuanced and realistic species-richness gradients, including latitudinal diversity gradients with tropical plateaus and mid-latitude inflection points and elevational diversity gradients with low-elevation diversity maxima. The model also illustrates the importance of a mid-environment effect that augments species richness at locations with intermediate environments. Model predictions match multiple empirical biodiversity gradients, depend on ecological traits in a testable fashion, and formally synthesize elements of several geometric models. Together, these results suggest that previous assessments of geometric hypotheses should be reconsidered and that environmental geometry may play a deeper role in driving biodiversity gradients than is currently appreciated.

  20. Why do tropical mountains support exceptionally high biodiversity? The Eastern Arc mountains and the drivers of Saintpaulia diversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitar Dimitrov

    Full Text Available We combine information about the evolutionary history and distributional patterns of the genus Saintpaulia H. Wendl. (Gesneriaceae; 'African violets' to elucidate the factors and processes behind the accumulation of species in tropical montane areas of high biodiversity concentration. We find that high levels of biodiversity in the Eastern Arc Mountains are the result of pre-Quaternary speciation processes and environmental stability. Our results support the hypothesis that climatically stable mountaintops may have acted as climatic refugia for lowland lineages during the Pleistocene by preventing extinctions. In addition, we found evidence for the existence of lowland micro-refugia during the Pleistocene, which may explain the high species diversity of East African coastal forests. We discuss the conservation implications of the results in the context of future climate change.

  1. Why do tropical mountains support exceptionally high biodiversity? The Eastern Arc mountains and the drivers of Saintpaulia diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrov, Dimitar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Scharff, Nikolaj

    2012-01-01

    We combine information about the evolutionary history and distributional patterns of the genus Saintpaulia H. Wendl. (Gesneriaceae; 'African violets') to elucidate the factors and processes behind the accumulation of species in tropical montane areas of high biodiversity concentration. We find that high levels of biodiversity in the Eastern Arc Mountains are the result of pre-Quaternary speciation processes and environmental stability. Our results support the hypothesis that climatically stable mountaintops may have acted as climatic refugia for lowland lineages during the Pleistocene by preventing extinctions. In addition, we found evidence for the existence of lowland micro-refugia during the Pleistocene, which may explain the high species diversity of East African coastal forests. We discuss the conservation implications of the results in the context of future climate change.

  2. Biodiversity Prospecting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittenfeld, Ana; Lovejoy, Annie

    1994-01-01

    Examines the use of biodiversity prospecting as a method for tropical countries to value biodiversity and contribute to conservation upkeep costs. Discusses the first agreement between a public interest organization and pharmaceutical company for the extraction of plant and animal materials in Costa Rica. (LZ)

  3. Spatial patterns of degraded tropical forest and biodiversity restoration over 70-years of succession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet E. Nichol

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Landscape metrics have often been used to analyse the spatial dynamics of habitat fragmentation accompanying forest loss. However, there are few studies of the spatial dynamics of natural forest succession, especially over periods longer than the operational period of imaging satellites. This study applies spatial metrics to understand the spatial processes of a 70-year tropical secondary forest succession in Hong Kong, since World War 2. The highest rate of forest regeneration at 11% a year from 1989 to 2001 occurred when the landscape achieved greatest habitat diversity and juxtapositioning of habitat patches. This rapid regeneration occurred by infilling from remnant forest in adjacent valleys rather than by an advance along a broad forest front, and led to simplification of the landscape and declining habitat diversity. It was also accompanied by declines in species richness and abundance in regenerated forest patches. Thus both habitat and woody plant species diversity show a humped trend over the successional period as disconnected forest patches amalgamate, and shade-intolerant pioneers are shaded out by taller pioneers. From this point onwards, the birds of mixed habitats including bulbuls and hwamei known to disperse seed in the study area, may become less effective as forest patches consolidate, and only a few forest mammals remain. The observed improved connectivity within forest patches and reduced edge disturbances accompanying landscape simplification provide better conditions for dispersion within forest of light-intolerant climax species from the oldest, species-rich valley sites to the newly regenerated areas. However, in addition to the loss of forest dispersal agents, other natural dispersal agents such as gravity, flash floods and slope wash involving downward processes may be ineffective, as forest has regenerated upwards to higher elevations. Progression to a mature, biodiverse and stable forest ecosystem may depend on

  4. Biodiversity of leaf-litter ants in fragmented tropical rainforests of Borneo: the value of publically and privately managed forest fragments

    OpenAIRE

    Tawatao, N; Lucey, JM; M Senior (Referee); Benedick, S; Vun Khen, C; Hill, JK; Hamer, KC

    2014-01-01

    In view of the rapid rate of expansion of agriculture in tropical regions, attention has focused on the potential for privately-managed rainforest patches within agricultural land to contribute to biodiversity conservation. However, these sites generally differ in their history of forest disturbance and management compared with other forest fragments, and more information is required on the biodiversity value of these privately-managed sites, particularly in oil-palm dominated landscapes of S...

  5. Stochastic properties of generalised Yule models, with biodiversity applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernhard, Tanja; Hartmann, Klaas; Steel, Mike

    2008-11-01

    The Yule model is a widely used speciation model in evolutionary biology. Despite its simplicity many aspects of the Yule model have not been explored mathematically. In this paper, we formalise two analytic approaches for obtaining probability densities of individual branch lengths of phylogenetic trees generated by the Yule model. These methods are flexible and permit various aspects of the trees produced by Yule models to be investigated. One of our methods is applicable to a broader class of evolutionary processes, namely the Bellman-Harris models. Our methods have many practical applications including biodiversity and conservation related problems. In this setting the methods can be used to characterise the expected rate of biodiversity loss for Yule trees, as well as the expected gain of including the phylogeny in conservation management. We briefly explore these applications.

  6. Measurement Models of Forest Biodiversity Variation and Its Controlling Study in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    According to the evaluative data of forest biodiversity variation in China from 1973 to 1998, not only the gray model GM( 1,2), but also the status spatial characterization model with the optimal control model for forest biodiversity variation is developed by using some mathematic approaches and knowledge in economic cybernetics. Furthermore, the structural characteristics of forest biodiversity variation are analyzed. The paper points out that the variation of forest biodiversity is instable, but it ca...

  7. Can community members identify tropical tree species for REDD+ carbon and biodiversity measurements?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Mingxu; Brofeldt, Søren; Li, Qiaohong

    2016-01-01

    to take advantage of the same data for detecting changes in the tree diversity, using the richness and abundance of canopy trees as a proxy for biodiversity. If local community members are already assessing the above-ground biomass in a representative network of forest vegetation plots, it may require...

  8. Decomposing biodiversity data using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, a probabilistic multivariate statistical method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Baiser, Benjamin; Woodall, Christopher W; Chazdon, Robin

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel multivariate method to analyse biodiversity data based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. LDA, a probabilistic model, reduces assemblages to sets of distinct component communities. It produces easily interpretable results, can represent abrupt and gradual changes in composition, accommodates missing data and allows for coherent estimates of uncertainty. We illustrate our method using tree data for the eastern United States and from a tropical successional chronosequence. The model is able to detect pervasive declines in the oak community in Minnesota and Indiana, potentially due to fire suppression, increased growing season precipitation and herbivory. The chronosequence analysis is able to delineate clear successional trends in species composition, while also revealing that site-specific factors significantly impact these successional trajectories. The proposed method provides a means to decompose and track the dynamics of species assemblages along temporal and spatial gradients, including effects of global change and forest disturbances.

  9. The relationship between tree biodiversity and biomass dynamics changes with tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R; Uriarte, María; Boukili, Vanessa K; Erickson, David L; John Kress, W; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-09-01

    Theory predicts shifts in the magnitude and direction of biodiversity effects on ecosystem function (BEF) over succession, but this theory remains largely untested. We studied the relationship between aboveground tree biomass dynamics (Δbiomass) and multiple dimensions of biodiversity over 8-16 years in eight successional rainforests. We tested whether successional changes in diversity-Δbiomass correlations reflect predictions of niche theories. Diversity-Δbiomass correlations were positive early but weak later in succession, suggesting saturation of niche space with increasing diversity. Early in succession, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity in two leaf traits exhibited the strongest positive correlations with Δbiomass, indicating complementarity or positive selection effects. In mid-successional stands, high biodiversity was associated with greater mortality-driven biomass loss, i.e. negative selection effects, suggesting successional niche trade-offs and loss of fast-growing pioneer species. Our results demonstrate that BEF relationships are dynamic across succession, thus successional context is essential to understanding BEF in a given system.

  10. Biodiversity and functional regeneration during secondary succession in a tropical dry forest: from microorganisms to mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    do Espírito Santo, M. M.; Neves, F. S.; Valério, H. M.; Leite, L. O.; Falcão, L. A.; Borges, M.; Beirão, M.; Reis, R., Jr.; Berbara, R.; Nunes, Y. R.; Silva, A.; Silva, L. F.; Siqueira, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we aimed to determine the changes on soil traits, forest structure and species richness and composition of multiple groups of organisms along secondary succession in a tropical dry forest (TDF) in southeastern Brazil. We defined three successional stages based in forest vertical and horizontal structure and age: early (18-25 years), intermediate (50-60 years) and late (no records of clearing). Five plots of 50 x 20 m were established per stage, and the following groups were sampled using specific techniques: rhizobacteria, mycorrhiza, trees and lianas, butterflies, ants, dung beetles, mosquitoes (Culicidae), birds and bats. We also determined soil chemical and physical characteristics and forest structure (tree height, density and basal area). Soil fertility increased along the successional gradient, and the same pattern was observed for all the forest structure variables. However, species richness and composition showed mixed results depending on the organism group. Three groups usually considered as good bioindicators of habitat quality did not differ in species richness and composition between stages: butterflies, ants and dung beetles. On the other hand, rizhobacteria and mycorrhiza differed both in species richness and composition between stages and may be more sensitive to changes in environmental conditions in TDFs. The other five groups differed either in species richness or composition between one or two pairs of successional stages. Although changes in abiotic conditions and forest structure match the predictions of classical successional models, the response of each group of organism is idiosyncratic in terms of diversity and ecological function, as a consequence of specific resource requirements and life-history traits. In general, diversity increased and functional groups changed mostly from early to intermediate-late stages, strengthening the importance of secondary forests to the maintenance of ecosystem integrity of TDFs.

  11. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages.

  12. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julieta Benítez-Malvido

    Full Text Available Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages.

  13. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants. In this study, we analyzed changes in biotic interactions in forest fragments by using a multitrophic approach. For this, we classified arthropods associated with Heliconia aurantiaca herbs into broad trophic guilds (omnivores, herbivores and predators) and assessed the topological structure of intrapopulation plant-arthropod networks in fragments and continuous forests. Habitat type influenced arthropod species abundance, diversity and composition with greater abundance in fragments but greater diversity in continuous forest. According to trophic guilds, coleopteran herbivores were more abundant in continuous forest and overall omnivores in fragments. Continuous forest showed a greater diversity of interactions than fragments. Only in fragments, however, did the arthropod community associated with H aurantiaca show a nested structure, suggesting novel and/or opportunistic host-arthropod associations. Plants, omnivores and predators contributed more to nestedness than herbivores. Therefore, Heliconia-arthropod network properties do not appear to be maintained in fragments mainly caused by the decrease of herbivores. Our study contributes to the understanding of the impact of fragmentation on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic arthropod communities associated with a particular plant species of the highly biodiverse tropical forests. Nevertheless, further replication of study sites is needed to strengthen the conclusion that forest fragmentation negatively affects arthropod assemblages. PMID:26731271

  14. The value of biodiversity for the functioning of tropical forests: insurance effects during the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Sean L; O'Brien, Michael J; Philipson, Christopher D; Saner, Philippe; Tanadini, Matteo; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; Godfray, H Charles J; Godoong, Elia; Nilus, Reuben; Ong, Robert C; Schmid, Bernhard; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L; Snoep, Martijn; Tangki, Hamzah; Tay, John; Ulok, Philip; Wai, Yap Sau; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Hector, Andy

    2016-12-14

    One of the main environmental threats in the tropics is selective logging, which has degraded large areas of forest. In southeast Asia, enrichment planting with seedlings of the dominant group of dipterocarp tree species aims to accelerate restoration of forest structure and functioning. The role of tree diversity in forest restoration is still unclear, but the 'insurance hypothesis' predicts that in temporally and spatially varying environments planting mixtures may stabilize functioning owing to differences in species traits and ecologies. To test for potential insurance effects, we analyse the patterns of seedling mortality and growth in monoculture and mixture plots over the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment. Our results reveal the species differences required for potential insurance effects including a trade-off in which species with denser wood have lower growth rates but higher survival. This trade-off was consistent over time during the first decade, but growth and mortality varied spatially across our 500 ha experiment with species responding to changing conditions in different ways. Overall, average survival rates were extreme in monocultures than mixtures consistent with a potential insurance effect in which monocultures of poorly surviving species risk recruitment failure, whereas monocultures of species with high survival have rates of self-thinning that are potentially wasteful when seedling stocks are limited. Longer-term monitoring as species interactions strengthen will be needed to more comprehensively test to what degree mixtures of species spread risk and use limited seedling stocks more efficiently to increase diversity and restore ecosystem structure and functioning. © 2016 The Authors.

  15. Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valli, Marilia; Pivatto, Marcos; Danuello, Amanda; Castro-Gamboa, Ian; Silva, Dulce Helena Siqueira; Cavalheiro, Alberto Jose; Araujo, Angela Regina; Furlan, Maysa; Lopes, Marcia Nasser; Bolzani, Vanderlan da Silva, E-mail: bolzaniv@iq.unesp.br [UNESP, Araraquara, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica. Dept. de Quimica Organica

    2012-07-01

    The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery. (author)

  16. Simulating Land Use Policies Targeted to Protect Biodiversity with the CLUE-Scanner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Lesschen, J.P.; Koomen, E.; Perez-Soba, M.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents an integrated modelling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity. A modelling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the

  17. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  18. Tradeoffs between income, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning during tropical rainforest conversion and agroforestry intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Kessler, Michael; Barkmann, Jan; Bos, Merijn M; Buchori, Damayanti; Erasmi, Stefan; Faust, Heiko; Gerold, Gerhard; Glenk, Klaus; Gradstein, S Robbert; Guhardja, Edi; Harteveld, Marieke; Hertel, Dietrich; Höhn, Patrick; Kappas, Martin; Köhler, Stefan; Leuschner, Christoph; Maertens, Miet; Marggraf, Rainer; Migge-Kleian, Sonja; Mogea, Johanis; Pitopang, Ramadhaniel; Schaefer, Matthias; Schwarze, Stefan; Sporn, Simone G; Steingrebe, Andrea; Tjitrosoedirdjo, Sri S; Tjitrosoemito, Soekisman; Twele, André; Weber, Robert; Woltmann, Lars; Zeller, Manfred; Tscharntke, Teja

    2007-03-20

    Losses of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning due to rainforest destruction and agricultural intensification are prime concerns for science and society alike. Potentially, ecosystems show nonlinear responses to land-use intensification that would open management options with limited ecological losses but satisfying economic gains. However, multidisciplinary studies to quantify ecological losses and socioeconomic tradeoffs under different management options are rare. Here, we evaluate opposing land use strategies in cacao agroforestry in Sulawesi, Indonesia, by using data on species richness of nine plant and animal taxa, six related ecosystem functions, and on socioeconomic drivers of agroforestry expansion. Expansion of cacao cultivation by 230% in the last two decades was triggered not only by economic market mechanisms, but also by rarely considered cultural factors. Transformation from near-primary forest to agroforestry had little effect on overall species richness, but reduced plant biomass and carbon storage by approximately 75% and species richness of forest-using species by approximately 60%. In contrast, increased land use intensity in cacao agroforestry, coupled with a reduction in shade tree cover from 80% to 40%, caused only minor quantitative changes in biodiversity and maintained high levels of ecosystem functioning while doubling farmers' net income. However, unshaded systems further increased income by approximately 40%, implying that current economic incentives and cultural preferences for new intensification practices put shaded systems at risk. We conclude that low-shade agroforestry provides the best available compromise between economic forces and ecological needs. Certification schemes for shade-grown crops may provide a market-based mechanism to slow down current intensification trends.

  19. Sampling methods for assessing syrphid biodiversity (Diptera: Syrphidae) in tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-García, M A; García-López, A; Zumbado, M A; Rotheray, G E

    2012-12-01

    When assessing the species richness of a taxonomic group in a specific area, the choice of sampling method is critical. In this study, the effectiveness of three methods for sampling syrphids (Diptera: Syrphidae) in tropical forests is compared: Malaise trapping, collecting adults with an entomological net, and collecting and rearing immatures. Surveys were made from 2008 to 2011 in six tropical forest sites in Costa Rica. The results revealed significant differences in the composition and richness of syrphid faunas obtained by each method. Collecting immatures was the most successful method based on numbers of species and individuals, whereas Malaise trapping was the least effective. This pattern of sampling effectiveness was independent of syrphid trophic or functional group and annual season. An advantage of collecting immatures over collecting adults is the quality and quantity of associated biological data obtained by the former method. However, complementarity between results of collecting adults and collecting immatures, showed that a combined sampling regime obtained the most complete inventory. Differences between these results and similar studies in more open Mediterranean habitats, suggest that for effective inventory, it is important to consider the effects of environmental characteristics on the catchability of syrphids as much as the costs and benefits of different sampling techniques.

  20. Ophiocordyceps unilateralis: A keystone species for unraveling ecosystem functioning and biodiversity of fungi in tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Harry C; Elliot, Simon L; Hughes, David P

    2011-09-01

    Ophiocordyceps unilateralis (Ascomycota: Hypocreales) is a specialized parasite that infects, manipulates and kills formicine ants, predominantly in tropical forest ecosystems. We have reported previously, based on a preliminary study in remnant Atlantic Forest in Minas Gerais (Brazil), that O. unilateralis represents a species complex. On each of the four species of infected carpenter ant (Camponotus) collected, the fungus-characterized macroscopically by a single stalk arising from the dorsal neck region on which the sexual structures (stromatal plates) are borne laterally-can readily be distinguished both microscopically and functionally. Here, we describe and discuss the biology, life cycle and infection strategies of O. unilateralis s.l. and hypothesize that there may be hundreds of species within the complex parasitizing formicine ants worldwide. We then address the diversity within related hypocrealean fungi, with particular reference to symbionts (mutualists through to parasites), and argue that the widely-quoted total of extant fungi (1.5 million species) may be grossly underestimated.

  1. Biodiversity patterns of the marine benthic fauna on the Atlantic coast of tropical Africa in relation to hydroclimatic conditions and paleogeographic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lœuff, Pierre Le; von Cosel, Rudo

    1998-06-01

    Five different hydroclimatic regions are recognized in the tropical eastern Atlantic: the northern alternance region (Cape Blanc - Cape Verga), the atypical tropical region (Cape Palmas - border Benin/Nigeria), the southern alternance region (Cape Lopez - Cape Frio), all with periodical upwelling of colder water, and two intercalated typical tropical regions with warm water and reduced salinity. The faunal richness in the regions with upwelling is higher than in the typical tropical regions because many benthic species avoid warm and reduced salinity water. Faunistic exchange and affinity are greater between the upwelling zones and the bordering temperate zones. The cold regions are also more similar in faunal composition. Benthic communities in both tropical and temperate eastern Atlantic are not fundamentally different. Species diversity of benthic invertebrates in tropical West Africa is about the same order of magnitude as in Europe and the Mediterranean. Hydroclimatic conditions (upwelling, salinity reduction and internal waves with drastic temperature changes) and absence of coral reef formations do not favour the establishment and thriving of a warm stenohaline and stenotherm fauna in West Africa. Paleozoogeographic events, such as the formation of a large Euro-West African tropical province during the Miocene after the breakup of the Tethys, repeated climate deteriorations during Pliocene and Pleistocene with reductions of the tropical zone, sea level changes and large-scale extinction of warm-tropical species, are also factors responsible for the current low biodiversity in the tropical eastern Atlantic. Some species survived in two major relict pockets in Senegal and southern Angola with particular ecological conditions.

  2. SRTM-DEM AND LANDSAT ETM+ DATA FOR MAPPING TROPICAL DRY FOREST COVER AND BIODIVERSITY ASSESSMENT IN NICARAGUA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett G. Dickson

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but hasreceived far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reducethe extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentationmay further endanger arboreal mammals that play principal role in the dispersal of large seeded fruits, plantcommunity assembly and diversity in these systems. Data on the spatial arrangement and extent of dryforest and other land cover types is greatly needed to enhance studies of forest fragmentation effects onanimal populations. To address this issue, we compared two Random Forest decision tree models forland cover classification in a Nicaraguan tropical dry forest landscape with and without the use of terrainvariables derived from Space Shuttle Radar and Topography Mission digital elevation data (SRTM-DEM.Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+ bands and vegetation indices were the principle source ofspectral variables used. Overall classification accuracy for nine land cover types improved from 82.4% to87.4% once terrain and spectral predictor variables were combined. Error matrix comparisons showedthat class accuracy was significantly greater (z = 2.57, p-value < 0.05 with the inclusion of terrain variables(e.g., slope, elevation and topographic wetness index in decision tree models. Variable importance metricsindicated that a corrected Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIc and terrain variables improveddiscrimination of forest successional types and wetlands in the study area. Results from this study demonstratethe capability of terrain variables to enhance land cover classification and habitat mapping useful tobiodiversity assessment in tropical dry forest.

  3. An ecosystem services perspective for the oceanic eastern tropical Pacific: commercial fisheries, carbon storage, recreational fishing, and biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer Lynn Martin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The ocean provides ecosystem services (ES that support humanity. Traditional single-issue management largely failed to protect the full suite of ES. Ecosystem-based management (EBM promotes resilient social-ecological systems that provide ES. To implement EBM, an ES approach is useful: 1 characterize major ES provided (magnitude, geographic extent, monetary value, trends, and stakeholders, 2 identify trade-offs, 3 determine desired outcomes, and 4 manage anthropogenic activities accordingly. Here we apply the ES approach (steps 1-2 to an open ocean ecosystem, the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP, an area of 21 million km2 that includes waters of 12 nations and the oceanic commons, using 35 years (1975-2010 of fisheries and economic data, and 20 years (1986-2006 of ship-based survey data. We examined commercial fisheries, carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreational fishing as the major provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ES, respectively. Average catch value (using U.S. import prices for fish for the 10 most commercially fished species was $2.7 billion yr-1. The value of carbon export to the deep ocean was $12.9 billion yr-1 (using average European carbon market prices. For two fisheries-depleted dolphin populations, the potential value of rebuilding carbon stores was $1.6 million (cumulative; for exploited fish stocks it was also $1.6 million (an estimated reduction of 544,000 mt. Sport fishing expenditures totaled $1.2 billion yr-1, from studies of three popular destinations. These initial, conservative estimates do not represent a complete summary of ETP ES values. We produced species richness maps for cetaceans, seabirds, and ichthyoplankton, and a sightings density map for marine turtles. Over 1/3 of cetacean, seabird, and marine turtle species occur in the ETP, and diversity (or density hotspots are widespread. This study fills several gaps in the assessment of marine and coastal ES by focusing on an oceanic habitat

  4. Collapse of biodiversity in fractured metacommunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj

    2014-03-01

    The increasing threat to global biodiversity from climate change, habitat destruction, and other anthropogenic factors motivates the search for features that increase the resistance of ecological communities to destructive disturbances. Recently, Gibson et al (Science 2013) observed that the damming of the Khlong Saeng river in Thailand caused a rapid collapse of biodiversity in the remaining tropical forests. Using a theoretical model that maps the distribution of coexisting species in an ecological community to a disordered system of Ising spins, we show that fracturing a metacommunity by inhibiting species dispersal leads to a collapse in biodiversity in the constituent local communities. The biodiversity collapse can be modeled as a diffusion on a rough energy landscape, and the resulting estimate for the rate of extinction highlights the role of species functional diversity in maintaining biodiversity following a disturbance.

  5. Connectivity of tropical marine ecosystems--An overview of interdisciplinary research to understand biodiversity and trophic relationships in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClain-Counts, Jennifer P.; Demopoulos, Amanda W.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico contain marine reserves and protected areas that encompass a variety of tropical ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Reserves and protected areas are established for a variety of reasons, such as preserving nursery habitats and biodiversity, or reducing anthropogenic effects associated with pollution and land use. Questions remain regarding the effectiveness of these designated areas in preserving and protecting spatially connected habitats and associated fishes and invertebrates. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), University of Florida, and Arkansas State University are collaborating on interdisciplinary research in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to examine the biodiversity and trophic dynamics of fishes and invertebrates residing in connected mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs to discern the effectiveness of current marine reserves and protected areas for conserving reef resources.

  6. Evolution of body size, vision, and biodiversity of coral-associated organisms: evidence from fossil crustaceans in cold-water coral and tropical coral ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klompmaker, Adiël A; Jakobsen, Sten L; Lauridsen, Bodil W

    2016-06-16

    Modern cold-water coral and tropical coral environments harbor a highly diverse and ecologically important macrofauna of crustaceans that face elevated extinction risks due to reef decline. The effect of environmental conditions acting on decapod crustaceans comparing these two habitats is poorly understood today and in deep time. Here, we compare the biodiversity, eye socket height as a proxy for eye size, and body size of decapods in fossil cold-water and tropical reefs that formed prior to human disturbance. We show that decapod biodiversity is higher in fossil tropical reefs from The Netherlands, Italy, and Spain compared to that of the exceptionally well-preserved Paleocene (Danian) cold-water reef/mound ecosystem from Faxe (Denmark), where decapod diversity is highest in a more heterogeneous, mixed bryozoan-coral habitat instead of in coral and bryozoan-dominated facies. The relatively low diversity at Faxe was not influenced substantially by the preceding Cretaceous/Paleogene extinction event that is not apparent in the standing diversity of decapods in our analyses, or by sampling, preservation, and/or a latitudinal diversity gradient. Instead, the lower availability of food and fewer hiding places for decapods may explain this low diversity. Furthermore, decapods from Faxe are larger than those from tropical waters for half of the comparisons, which may be caused by a lower number of predators, the delayed maturity, and the increased life span of crustaceans in deeper, colder waters. Finally, deep-water specimens of the benthic crab Caloxanthus from Faxe exhibit a larger eye socket size compared to congeneric specimens from tropical reefs, suggesting that dim light conditions favored the evolution of relatively large eyes. The results suggest a strong habitat control on the biodiversity of crustaceans in coral-associated environments and that the diversity difference between deep, cold-water reefs and tropical reefs evolved at least ~63 million years ago

  7. Modeling Tropical Precipitation in a Single Column.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Bretherton, Christopher S.

    2000-12-01

    A modified formulation of the traditional single column model for representing a limited area near the equator is proposed. This formulation can also be considered a two-column model in the limit as the area represented by one of the columns becomes very large compared to the other. Only a single column is explicitly modeled, but its free tropospheric temperature, rather than its mean vertical velocity, is prescribed. This allows the precipitation and vertical velocity to be true prognostic variables, as in prior analytical theories of tropical precipitation. Two models developed by other authors are modified according to the proposed formulation. The first is the intermediate atmospheric model of J. D. Neelin and N. Zeng, but with the horizontal connections between columns broken, rendering it a set of disconnected column models. The second is the column model of N. O. Rennó, K. A. Emanuel, and P. H. Stone. In the first model, the set of disconnected column models is run with a fixed temperature that is uniform in the Tropics, and insolation, SST, and surface wind speed taken from a control run of the original model. The column models produce a climatological precipitation field that is grossly similar to that of the control run, despite that the circulation implied by the column models is not required to conserve mass. The addition of horizontal moisture advection by the wind from the control run substantially improves the simulation in dry regions. In the second model the sensitivity of the modeled steady-state precipitation and relative humidity to varying SST and wind speed is examined. The transition from shallow to deep convection is simulated in a `Lagrangian' calculation in which the column model is subjected to an SST that increases in time. In this simulation, the onset of deep convection is delayed to a higher SST than in the steady-state case, due to the effect of horizontal moisture advection (viewed in a Lagrangian reference frame). In both of the

  8. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available distribution models, land cover, land capability and various biodiversity conservation data to identify natural areas with (i) a potentially high risk of transformation for biofuel production and (ii) potential impact to biodiversity conservation areas...

  9. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  10. Introducing tropical lianas in a vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeeck, Hans; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Brugnera, Manfredo di Procia e.; Krshna Moorthy Paravathi, Sruthi; Pausenberger, Nancy; Roels, Jana; kearsley, elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Tropical forests are essential components of the earth system and play a critical role for land surface feedbacks to climate change. These forests are currently experiencing large-scale structural changes, including the increase of liana abundance and biomass. This liana proliferation might have large impacts on the carbon cycle of tropical forests. However no single global vegetation model currently accounts for lianas. The TREECLIMBERS project (ERC starting grant) aims to introduce for the first time lianas into a vegetation model. The project attempts to reach this challenging goal by performing a global meta-analysis on liana data and by collecting new data in South American forests. Those new and existing datasets form the basis of a new liana plant functional type (PFT) that will be included in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). This presentation will show an overview of the current progress of the TREECLIMBERS project. Liana inventory data collected in French Guiana along a forest disturbance gradient show the relation between liana abundance and disturbance. Xylem water isotope analysis indicates that trees and lianas can rely on different soil water resources. New modelling concepts for liana PFTs will be presented and in-situ leaf gas exchange and sap flow data are used to parameterize water and carbon fluxes for this new PFT. Finally ongoing terrestrial LiDAR observations of liana infested forest will be highlighted.

  11. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Simon; Adger, W Neil

    2003-05-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis.

  12. Two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhi-li

    2010-01-01

    In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.

  13. SRTM-DEM and Landsat ETM+ data for mapping tropical dry forest cover and biodiversity assessment in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.E. Sesnie; S.E. Hagell; S.M. Otterstrom; C.L. Chambers; B.G. Dickson

    2008-01-01

    Tropical dry and deciduous forest comprises as much as 42% of the world’s tropical forests, but has received far less attention than forest in wet tropical areas. Land use change threatens to greatly reduce the extent of dry forest that is known to contain high levels of plant and animal diversity. Forest fragmentation may further endanger arboreal mammals that play...

  14. Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estoque, M. A.

    1982-01-01

    The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

  15. The Multiple Impacts of Tropical Forest Fragmentation on Arthropod Biodiversity and on their Patterns of Interactions with Host Plants

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; Dáttilo, Wesley; Martínez-Falcón, Ana Paola; Durán-Barrón, César; Valenzuela, Jorge; López, Sara; Lombera, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Tropical rain forest fragmentation affects biotic interactions in distinct ways. Little is known, however, about how fragmentation affects animal trophic guilds and their patterns of interactions with host plants...

  16. Bibliometry of Costa Rica biodiversity studies published in the Revista de Biología Tropical/International Journal of Tropical Biology and Conservation (2000-2010): the content and importance of a leading tropical biology journal in its 60th anniversary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Muñoz, Vanessa; Azofeifa-Mora, Ana Beatriz; Monge-Nájera, Julián

    2012-12-01

    Central America is recognized as a mega diverse "hot-spot" and one of its smaller countries, Costa Rica, as one of the world's leaders in the study and conservation of tropical biodiversity. For this study, inspired by the 60th anniversary of the journal Revista de Biología Tropical, we tabulated all the scientific production on Costa Rican biodiversity published in Revista de Biología Tropical between 2000 and 2010. Most articles are zoological (62%) and 67% of authors had only one publication in the jounal within that period. A 54% of articles were published in English and 46% in Spanish. A 41% of articles were written in collaboration among Costa Rican institutions and 36% in collaboration with foreign institutions. The Collaboration Index was 2.53 signatures per article. Visibility in American sources was 56% in Google Scholar and 42.66% in the Web of Science, but the real visibility and impact are unknown because these sources exclude the majority of tropical journals. Revista de Biología Tropical is the main output channel for Costa Rican biology and despite its small size, Costa Rica occupies the 10th. place in productivity among Latin American countries, with productivity and impact levels that compare favorably with larger countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

  17. The Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a long-term test of the role of tree diversity in restoring tropical forest structure and functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Andy; Philipson, Christopher; Saner, Philippe; Chamagne, Juliette; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; O'Brien, Michael; Snaddon, Jake L.; Ulok, Philip; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2011-01-01

    Relatively, little is known about the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in forests, especially in the tropics. We describe the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a large-scale, long-term field study on the island of Borneo. The project aims at understanding the relationship between tree species diversity and the functioning of lowland dipterocarp rainforest during restoration following selective logging. The experiment is planned to run for several decades (from seed to adult tree), so here we focus on introducing the project and its experimental design and on assessing initial conditions and the potential for restoration of the structure and functioning of the study system, the Malua Forest Reserve. We estimate residual impacts 22 years after selective logging by comparison with an appropriate neighbouring area of primary forest in Danum Valley of similar conditions. There was no difference in the alpha or beta species diversity of transect plots in the two forest types, probably owing to the selective nature of the logging and potential effects of competitive release. However, despite equal total stem density, forest structure differed as expected with a deficit of large trees and a surfeit of saplings in selectively logged areas. These impacts on structure have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. In particular, above-ground biomass and carbon pools in selectively logged areas were only 60 per cent of those in the primary forest even after 22 years of recovery. Our results establish the initial conditions for the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment and confirm the potential to accelerate restoration by using enrichment planting of dipterocarps to overcome recruitment limitation. What role dipterocarp diversity plays in restoration only will become clear with long-term results. PMID:22006970

  18. The Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a long-term test of the role of tree diversity in restoring tropical forest structure and functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Andy; Philipson, Christopher; Saner, Philippe; Chamagne, Juliette; Dzulkifli, Dzaeman; O'Brien, Michael; Snaddon, Jake L; Ulok, Philip; Weilenmann, Maja; Reynolds, Glen; Godfray, H Charles J

    2011-11-27

    Relatively, little is known about the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in forests, especially in the tropics. We describe the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment: a large-scale, long-term field study on the island of Borneo. The project aims at understanding the relationship between tree species diversity and the functioning of lowland dipterocarp rainforest during restoration following selective logging. The experiment is planned to run for several decades (from seed to adult tree), so here we focus on introducing the project and its experimental design and on assessing initial conditions and the potential for restoration of the structure and functioning of the study system, the Malua Forest Reserve. We estimate residual impacts 22 years after selective logging by comparison with an appropriate neighbouring area of primary forest in Danum Valley of similar conditions. There was no difference in the alpha or beta species diversity of transect plots in the two forest types, probably owing to the selective nature of the logging and potential effects of competitive release. However, despite equal total stem density, forest structure differed as expected with a deficit of large trees and a surfeit of saplings in selectively logged areas. These impacts on structure have the potential to influence ecosystem functioning. In particular, above-ground biomass and carbon pools in selectively logged areas were only 60 per cent of those in the primary forest even after 22 years of recovery. Our results establish the initial conditions for the Sabah Biodiversity Experiment and confirm the potential to accelerate restoration by using enrichment planting of dipterocarps to overcome recruitment limitation. What role dipterocarp diversity plays in restoration only will become clear with long-term results.

  19. An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Matthew; Scott, James D. [University of Colorado, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO (United States); NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Alexander, Michael A. [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-11-15

    To extend the linear stochastically forced paradigm of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability to the subsurface ocean, a linear inverse model (LIM) is constructed from the simultaneous and 3-month lag covariances of observed 3-month running mean anomalies of SST, thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress. This LIM is then used to identify the empirically-determined linear dynamics with physical processes to gauge their relative importance to ENSO evolution. Optimal growth of SST anomalies over several months is triggered by both an initial SST anomaly and a central equatorial Pacific thermocline anomaly that propagates slowly eastward while leading the amplifying SST anomaly. The initial SST and thermocline anomalies each produce roughly half the SST amplification. If interactions between the sea surface and the thermocline are removed in the linear dynamical operator, the SST anomaly undergoes less optimal growth but is also more persistent, and its location shifts from the eastern to central Pacific. Optimal growth is also found to be essentially the result of two stable eigenmodes with similar structure but differing 2- and 4-year periods evolving from initial destructive to constructive interference. Variations among ENSO events could then be a consequence not of changing stability characteristics but of random excitation of these two eigenmodes, which represent different balances between surface and subsurface coupled dynamics. As found in previous studies, the impact of the additional variables on LIM SST forecasts is relatively small for short time scales. Over time intervals greater than about 9 months, however, the additional variables both significantly enhance forecast skill and predict lag covariances and associated power spectra whose closer agreement with observations enhances the validation of the linear model. Moreover, a secondary type of optimal growth exists that is not present in a LIM constructed from SST alone, in which initial SST

  20. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Briones-Salas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation. We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  1. Effects of a wind farm installation on the understory bat community of a highly biodiverse tropical region in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones-Salas, Miguel; Lavariega, Mario C; Moreno, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has rapidly become an important alternative among renewable energies, and it is generally considered clean. However, little is known about its impact at the level of ecological communities, especially in biodiversity hotspots. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is a highly biodiverse region in Mesoamerica, and has the highest potential for generating wind energy in Mexico. To assess the effects of installing a wind farm on the understory bat community in a landscape of fragmented habitat, we assessed its diversity and composition over four stages of installation (site preparation, construction, and two stages of operation). We captured 919 bats belonging to 22 species. Species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity decreased during construction and the first stage of operation. However, these components of biodiversity increased during the second stage of operation, and species composition began to resemble that of the site preparation stage. No species considered as sensitive to disturbance was recorded at any stage. This is the first study to reveal the diversity of a Neotropical bat community after wind turbines begin to operate.

  2. Incentivizing biodiversity conservation in artisanal fishing communities through territorial user rights and business model innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelcich, Stefan; Donlan, C Josh

    2015-08-01

    Territorial user rights for fisheries are being promoted to enhance the sustainability of small-scale fisheries. Using Chile as a case study, we designed a market-based program aimed at improving fishers' livelihoods while incentivizing the establishment and enforcement of no-take areas within areas managed with territorial user right regimes. Building on explicit enabling conditions (i.e., high levels of governance, participation, and empowerment), we used a place-based, human-centered approach to design a program that will have the necessary support and buy-in from local fishers to result in landscape-scale biodiversity benefits. Transactional infrastructure must be complex enough to capture the biodiversity benefits being created, but simple enough so that the program can be scaled up and is attractive to potential financiers. Biodiversity benefits created must be commoditized, and desired behavioral changes must be verified within a transactional context. Demand must be generated for fisher-created biodiversity benefits in order to attract financing and to scale the market model. Important design decisions around these 3 components-supply, transactional infrastructure, and demand-must be made based on local social-ecological conditions. Our market model, which is being piloted in Chile, is a flexible foundation on which to base scalable opportunities to operationalize a scheme that incentivizes local, verifiable biodiversity benefits via conservation behaviors by fishers that could likely result in significant marine conservation gains and novel cross-sector alliances.

  3. Approaches to Bioeconomic Modelling in correlation with Consumer Model and Biodiversity Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipate Iudith

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analysed the characteristics of bio-economic models in agricultural systems and agro-biodiversity indicators. The classical bioeconomic models are used to analyze the human consumption of ecosystems for production. The analysis focuses on changes in a limited set of agrobiodiversity indicators that matter to human beings. In existing bioeconomic models incorporate ecological complexities and dynamics is limited. Although bioeconomic model provides useful methods to integrate economic values into environmental analyses, improved the dynamic interrelationships between natural processes and socio-economic systems is needed to allow an integrated assessment of multiple values. The overview will enable a more informed decision about whether and how bio-economic models/modeling can contribute to the development of integrated environmental decision support tools. The bio economic modeling it is important for evaluating the costs and benefits associated with environmental resource use.

  4. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Waits, L.; Finegan, B.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Hormel, L.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Sibelet, N.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non-traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we examine the coupled social and ecological implications of agricultural intensification Guided by frameworks from political economy, landscape ecology and landscape genetics we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology and genetics analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which increase the genetic structure and reduce the genetic diversity of Symphonia globulifera a forest understory tree species. To offset the effects of agricultural intensification on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  5. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  6. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  7. Regional Policy Models for Forest Biodiversity Analysis: Lessons From Coastal Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Norman Johnson; Sally Duncan; Thomas A. Spies

    2007-01-01

    The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million...

  8. Biological science learning model based on Turgo's local wisdom on managing biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwari, Nahdi, Maizer Said; Sulistyowati, Eka

    2016-02-01

    Local wisdom as product of local knowledge has been giving a local context in science development. Local wisdom is important to connect scientific theories and local conditions; hence science could be accessed by common people. Using local wisdom as a model for learning science enables students to build contextual learning, hence learning science becomes more meaningful and becomes more accessible for students in a local community. Based on this consideration, therefore, this research developed a model for learning biology based on Turgo's local wisdom on managing biodiversity. For this purpose, Turgo's biodiversity was mapped, and any local values that are co-existing with the biodiversity were recorded. All of these informations were, then, used as a hypohetical model for developing materials for teaching biology in a senior high school adjacent to Turgo. This research employed a qualitative method. We combined questionnaries, interviews and observation to gather the data. We found that Turgo community has been practicing local wisdom on using traditional plants for many uses, including land management and practicing rituals and traditional ceremonies. There were local values that they embrace which enable them to manage the nature wisely. After being cross-referenced with literature regarding educational philoshophy, educational theories and teachings, and biology curriculum for Indonesia's senior high school, we concluded that Turgo's local wisdom on managing biodiversity can be recommended to be used as learning materials and sources for biological learning in schools.

  9. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    OpenAIRE

    Samson, G; Masson, S.; M. Lengaigne; Keerthi, M. G.; Vialard, J; S. Pous; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N. C.; Jullien, S; MENKES, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    2014-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common 1 =4 horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990–2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal ra...

  10. Progress in Biodiversity Informatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keping Ma

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity Informatics is a young and rapidly growing field that brings information science and technologies to bear on the data and information generated by the study of biodiversity and related subjects. Recent years, biodiversity informatics community has made an extraordinary effort to digitize primary biodiversity data, and develop modelling tools, data integration, and county/ regional/ global biodiversity networks. In doing so, the community is creating an unprecedented global sharing of information and data produced by biodiversity science, and encouraging people to consider, survey and monitor natural biodiversity. Due to success of several international biodiversity informatics projects, such as Species 2000, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Barcoding of Life and Encyclopedia of Life, digitized information on species inventories, herbarium specimens, multimedia and literature is available through internet. These projects not only make great contributions to sharing digitized biodiversity data, but also in prompting the implementation of important biodiversity information standards, such as Darwin Core, and in the establishment of regional and national biodiversity networks. These efforts will facilitate the future establishment of a strong information infrastructure for data sharing and exchange at a global scale. Besides focusing on browsing and searching digitized data, scientists should also work on building data mining and modeling, such as MAXENT for Ecological Niche Modelling and LifeDesk for taxonomist’s knowledge management. At the same time, the idea of citizen sciences gains popularity showing us the benefit of the public working closely with the scientific community in completing internet-based biodiversity informatics activities. Therefore, biodiversity informatics has broad prospects, and is helping to build strong facilities that will aid in implementing the goals set by Global Plant Conservation Strategy and

  11. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Valerie E

    2014-01-01

    Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  12. Intercropping with shrub species that display a 'steady-state' flowering phenology as a strategy for biodiversity conservation in tropical agroecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie E Peters

    Full Text Available Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods.

  13. Intercropping with Shrub Species That Display a ‘Steady-State’ Flowering Phenology as a Strategy for Biodiversity Conservation in Tropical Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Valerie E.

    2014-01-01

    Animal species in the Neotropics have evolved under a lower spatiotemporal patchiness of food resources compared to the other tropical regions. Although plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology are rare, they provide predictable food resources and therefore may play a pivotal role in animal community structure and diversity. I experimentally planted a supplemental patch of a shrub species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology, Hamelia patens Jacq., into coffee agroforests to evaluate the contribution of this unique phenology to the structure and diversity of the flower-visiting community. After accounting for the higher abundance of captured animals in the coffee agroforests with the supplemental floral resources, species richness was 21% higher overall in the flower-visiting community in these agroforests compared to control agroforests. Coffee agroforests with the steady-state supplemental floral patch also had 31% more butterfly species, 29% more hummingbird species, 65% more wasps and 85% more bees than control coffee agroforests. The experimental treatment, together with elevation, explained 57% of the variation in community structure of the flower-visiting community. The identification of plant species that can support a high number of animal species, including important ecosystem service providers, is becoming increasingly important for restoration and conservation applications. Throughout the Neotropics plant species with a steady-state flowering/fruiting phenology can be found in all aseasonal forests and thus could be widely tested and suitable species used throughout the tropics to manage for biodiversity and potentially ecosystem services involving beneficial arthropods. PMID:24598826

  14. A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Alejandra Chadid

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The loss of tropical forests has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. Here, we examine the conversion of forests to pastures and coca crops (illicit activity on the San Lucas Mountain Range, Colombia for 2002–2007 and 2007–2010. Land use maps and biophysical variables were used as inputs to generate land use and cover change (LUCC models using the DINAMICA EGO software. These analyses revealed a dramatic acceleration of the pace of deforestation in the region, with rates of conversion from forest to pasture doubling from the first to the second period. Altitude, distance to other crops, and distance to rivers were the primary drivers of deforestation. The influence of these drivers, however, differed markedly depending on whether coca cultivation or pastures replaced forest. Conversion to coca was more probable farther from other crops and from settlements. In contrast, proximity to other crops and to settlements increased conversion to pasture. These relationships highlight the different roles of coca and pastures in forest loss, with coca tending to open up new forest frontiers, and pastures tending to consolidate agricultural expansion and urban influence. Large differences between LUCC processes for each period suggest highly dynamic changes, likely associated with shifting underlying causes of deforestation. These changes may relate to shifts in demand for illicit crops, land, or mining products; however, the data to test these hypotheses are currently lacking. More frequent and detailed monitoring is required to guide actions to decrease the loss of forest in this highly vulnerable biodiversity hotspot in the Northern Andes.

  15. Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snäll, Tord; Lehtomäki, Joona; Arponen, Anni; Elith, Jane; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-02-01

    There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distribution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost-effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.

  16. Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snäll, Tord; Lehtomäki, Joona; Arponen, Anni; Elith, Jane; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-02-01

    There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distribution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost-effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.

  17. Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Sean M; Harrison, Sandy P; Armbruster, W Scott; Bartlein, Patrick J; Beale, Colin M; Edwards, Mary E; Kattge, Jens; Midgley, Guy; Morin, Xavier; Prentice, I Colin

    2011-05-01

    Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Using Ecological Niche Modeling for Biodiversity Conservation Guidance in the Western Podillya (Ukraine: Reptiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tytar V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using Ecological Niche Modeling for Biodiversity Conservation Guidance in the Western Podillya (Ukraine: Reptiles. Tytar, V., Sobolenko, L., Nekrasova, O. Mezhzherin, S. - Maximum entropy niche modeling was employed as a tool to assess potential habitat suitability for 10 reptile species and to map their potential distribution in the Western Podillya (Ukraine. We used climate, topography and human impact (assessed by the Human Footprint as predictor variables. “Isothermality”, “temperature seasonality” and the “mean temperature of coldest month” were three most important factors in predicting habitat suitability and distribution. A profound contribution to the modeling has been displayed by the Human Footprint, meaning that human infrastructure may benefit reptile species. Areas have been distinguished that in the first place should be of interest to biodiversity conservationists targeting reptiles and maps summarizing predicted habitat suitability and species richness were produced for guiding conservation efforts.

  19. Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates

    CERN Document Server

    Szolnoki, Attila

    2016-01-01

    Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatiall...

  20. Interdependence of Model Systematic Biases in the Tropical Atlantic and the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Teferi; Shonk, Jon; Toniazzo, Thomas; Woolnough, Steve Steve; Guilyardi, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The tropical climatology represented in simulations with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is affected by significant systematic biases despite the huge investments in model devlopment over the past 20 years. In this study, coupled seasonal hindcasts performed with EC-Earth and ECMWF System 4 are analyzed to understand the development of systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These models use similar atmosphere and ocean components (IFS and NEMO, respectively). We focus on hindcasts initialized in February and May. We discuss possible mechanisms for the evolution and origin of rapidly developing systematic biases over the tropical Atlantic during boreal spring. In addition, we look for evidence of the interrelation of systematic biases in the Atlantic and Pacific, and investigate if the errors in one ocean basin affect those in the other. We perform an upper-atmosphere wave analysis by Fourier filtering for certain ranges of temporal frequencies and zonal wavenumbers. Our results identicate common systematic biases in EC-Earth and System 4 purely attributable to the atmosphere component. Biases develop in the Atlantic basin independently of external influences, while a possible effect of such biases on the eastern Pacific is found.

  1. Wind waves in tropical cyclones: satellite altimeter observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubkin, Pavel; Kudryavtsev, Vladimir; Chapron, Bertrand

    2016-04-01

    Results of investigation of wind-wave generation by tropical cyclones using satellite altimeter data are presented. Tropical cyclones are generally relatively small rapidly moving low pressure systems that are capable of generating severe wave conditions. Translation of a tropical cyclone leads to a prolonged period of time surface waves in the right sector remain under high wind forcing conditions. This effect has been termed extended fetch, trapped fetch or group velocity quasi-resonance. A tropical cyclone wave field is thus likely more asymmetrical than the corresponding wind field: wind waves in the tropical cyclone right sector are more developed with larger heights than waves in the left one. A dataset of satellite altimeter intersections of the Western Pacific tropical cyclones was created for 2010-2013. Data from four missions were considered, i.e., Jason-1, Jason-2, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa. Measurements in the rear-left and front-right sectors of tropical cyclones were examined for the presence of significant wave asymmetry. An analytical model is then derived to efficiently describe the wave energy distribution in a moving tropical cyclone. The model essentially builds on a generalization of the self-similar wave growth model and the assumption of a strongly dominant single spectral mode in a given quadrant of the storm. The model provides a criterion to anticipate wave enhancement with the generation of trapped abnormal waves. If forced during a sufficient timescale interval, also defined from this generalized self-similar wave growth model, waves can be trapped and large amplification of the wave energy will occur in the front-right storm quadrant. Remarkably, the group velocity and corresponding wavelength of outrunning wave systems will become wind speed independent and solely relate to the translating velocity. The resulting significant wave height also only weakly depends on wind speed, and more strongly on the translation velocity. Satellite

  2. Epidemiological Implications of Host Biodiversity and Vector Biology: Key Insights from Simple Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, Andrew D M; Auld, Stuart K J R

    2016-04-01

    Models used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity change and vector-borne disease risk often do not explicitly include the vector; they instead rely on a frequency-dependent transmission function to represent vector dynamics. However, differences between classes of vector (e.g., ticks and insects) can cause discrepancies in epidemiological responses to environmental change. Using a pair of disease models (mosquito- and tick-borne), we simulated substitutive and additive biodiversity change (where noncompetent hosts replaced or were added to competent hosts, respectively), while considering different relationships between vector and host densities. We found important differences between classes of vector, including an increased likelihood of amplified disease risk under additive biodiversity change in mosquito models, driven by higher vector biting rates. We also draw attention to more general phenomena, such as a negative relationship between initial infection prevalence in vectors and likelihood of dilution, and the potential for a rise in density of infected vectors to occur simultaneously with a decline in proportion of infected hosts. This has important implications; the density of infected vectors is the most valid metric for primarily zoonotic infections, while the proportion of infected hosts is more relevant for infections where humans are a primary host.

  3. How will oil palm expansion affect biodiversity?

    OpenAIRE

    Fitzherbert, E.B.; Struebig, M.J.; Morel, A.; Danielsen, F.; Brühl, C.A.; Donald, P.F.; Phalan, B.

    2008-01-01

    Metadata only record This article explores the impacts of oil palm expansion on biodiversity and tropical deforestation. Oil palm plantations support substantially less biodiversity than natural forest or even other tree crops. Because regions with favorable conditions for oil palm plantations tend to be areas of critical importance for biodiversity, the rising international demand for vegetable oils and biofuels could prompt further wide-scale tropical deforestation and large losses of bi...

  4. Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gengping Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the environmental variables that associated with species’ occurrence records, ecological niche modeling (ENM seeks to characterize environmental conditions suitable for a particular species and then identify where suitable environmental habitats are distributed in the space. Recently, ENM has been used increasingly in biological invasion, conservation biology, biological responses toclimate change, disease spatial transmission, and variety aspects of ecology and evolutionary biology research. However, the theoretical background of these applications is generally poorly understood, leading to artifactual conclusions in some studies (e.g. niche differentiation during species’ invasion. In this paper we discuss the relationship between niche and geographic distribution and introduce the theoretical basis of ENM, along with relationships between the niche and ENM. Abiotic/biotic, historical and dispersal factors are three key elements that determine species’ geographic distributions at different scales. By using environmental variables derived from distributional records, ENM is based on observations that already include effects of biotic interactions, therefore ENM is used to characterize somewhere between the realized niche and potential niche, not the fundamental niche. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches are both manifested in ENM calibration, depending on the types of variables used to fit model, the natural spatial scale at which they can be measured, and the dispersal of individuals throughout the environment. Applications of ENM in understanding ecological requirements of species, discovery of new species or populations, nature reserve design, predicting potential invasion, modeling biological responses to climate change, niche conservatism, and pecies delimitation are discussed in this paper.

  5. Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dwyer, James P; Green, Jessica L

    2010-01-01

    Predicting the variation of biodiversity across the surface of the Earth is a fundamental issue in ecology, and in this article we focus on one of the most widely studied spatial biodiversity patterns: the species-area relationship (SAR). The SAR is a central tool in conservation, being used to predict species loss following global climate change, and is striking in its universality throughout different geographical regions and across the tree of life. In this article we draw upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the SAR. We find that the SAR has three phases, with a power law increase at intermediate scales, consistent with decades of documented empirical patterns. Our model also provides a building block for incorporating non-neutral biological variation, with the potential to bridge the gap between neutral and niche-based approaches to community assembly.

  6. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  7. Soil functional operating range linked to microbial biodiversity and community composition using denitrifiers as model guild.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Hallin

    Full Text Available Soil microorganisms are key players in biogeochemical cycles. Yet, there is no consistent view on the significance of microbial biodiversity for soil ecosystem functioning. According to the insurance hypothesis, declines in ecosystem functioning due to reduced biodiversity are more likely to occur under fluctuating, extreme or rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here, we compare the functional operating range, a new concept defined as the complete range of environmental conditions under which soil microbial communities are able to maintain their functions, between four naturally assembled soil communities from a long-term fertilization experiment. A functional trait approach was adopted with denitrifiers involved in nitrogen cycling as our model soil community. Using short-term temperature and salt gradients, we show that the functional operating range was broader and process rates were higher when the soil community was phylogenetically more diverse. However, key bacterial genotypes played an important role for maintaining denitrification as an ecosystem functioning under certain conditions.

  8. A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Atmospheric Model and Its Performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Xueshun; Akimasa SUMI

    2005-01-01

    A high resolution nonhydrostatic tropical atmospheric model is developed by using a ready-made regional atmospheric modeling system. The motivation is to investigate the convective activities associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) through a cloud resolving calculation. Due to limitations in computing resources, a 2000 km×2000 km region covering the forefront of an ISO-related westerly is selected as the model domain, in which a cloud-resolving integration with a 5-km horizontal resolution is conducted. The results indicate the importance of stratus-cumulus interactions in the organization of the cloud clusters embedded in the ISO. In addition, comparative integrations with 2-km and 5-km grid sizes are conducted, which suggest no distinctive differences between the two cases although some finer structures of convections are discernible in the 2-km case. The significance of this study resides in supplying a powerful tool for investigating tropical cloud activities without the controversy of cloud parameterizations. The parallel computing method applied in this model allows sufficient usage of computer memory, which is different from the usual method used when parallelizing regional model. Further simulation for the global tropics with a resolution around 5 km is being prepared.

  9. Biodiversity and density of subtidal benthos of an oceanic tropical island (a comparison within the Pacific Ocean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibaja-Cordero, Jeffrey A.; Troncoso, Jesús S.; Cortés, Jorge; Moreira, Juan; Vargas, José A.; Benavides-Varela, Catalina

    2016-09-01

    The marine macrofauna of the shallow sandy bottom of Isla del Coco, Costa Rica (5°32‧N-87°04‧W) was assessed in April 2010. Comparisons of richness, density and diversity between levels of exposure to ocean influence were carried out. During this study 15,407 specimens with a mean density of 1826 ind m- 2 were found between 3-75 m depth. The specimens were distributed in 267 taxa (29% new additions) with a mean of 55 ± 14 expected taxa m- 2. The values of density, richness and diversity were higher at the exposed coast, whereas they decreased at inner bays due to the influence of freshwater input. These estimates were compared with 40 studies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). Taxa and density previously reported from the TPO were dependent on the area and depth range studied. Additionally, these parameters varied according to the sampling gear used. For example, higher densities were reported by using corers or boxcorers. The Shannon-Wiener index was most effective in identifying sediment and geographical patterns of variation along the TPO. Differences in these diversity parameters were also found between islands and mainland studies. Moreover, richness and density values from Isla del Coco were higher than the same parameters reported in studies using grabs in the TPO. At Isla del Coco annelids were dominant in terms of relative abundance (49.6%), followed by crustaceans (10.1%), mollusks (2.8%), and others faunal groups (37.5%). The faunistic composition at Isla del Coco differed when compared to the rest of localities of TPO due to the higher contribution of miscellaneous groups. In conclusion, the comparison with previous studies in the TPO indicate that islands like Isla del Coco have high numbers of taxa and diversity than those of the mainland, but lower density. However, this value is influenced by the sampling methodology. The taxa accumulation curve at Isla del Coco did not reach the asymptote, suggesting that an intensive sampling, especially

  10. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Riehl 1958; Kimball 4 2006; Riemer and Montgomery 2011), both of which influence the organization of 5 convection and, ultimately, operation of the...On the ability of dry tropical-cyclone-like vortices to withstand 1 vertical shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 114–119. 2 Kimball , S. K., 2006: A modeling

  11. Verification of tropical cyclone using the KIAPS Integration Model (KIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, S.; Seol, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is a government funded non-profit research and development institute located in Seoul, South Korea. KIAPS is developing the Global Model, a backbone for the next-generation operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system with three-phase plans; Establishment and R&D Planning (2011-2013), Test Model Development (2014-2016), and Operational Model Development (2017-2019). As a second-phase, we have beta version of KIAPS Integration Model (KIM) that can produce reasonable global forecasting. Using the KIM model, we are evaluating the tropical cyclone forecast in the global model. To objectively provide a best estimate of the storm's central position, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) vortex tracker, widely used in tracker algorithms. It gives the track and intensity of the storm throughout the duration of the forecast based on its algorithm. As a verification tool, we use the Model Evaluation Tool - Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC), which produces statistical evaluation. We expect these results give the statue of ability for the tropical cyclone forecast with KIM model.

  12. On biodiversity in river networks: A trade-off metapopulation model and comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, R.; Levin, S. A.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2007-07-01

    A discrete, structured metapopulation model is coupled with the strictly hierarchical competition-colonization trade-off model, in which competitively superior species have lower fecundity rates and thus lower colonizing ability, to study the resulting biodiversity patterns in river networks. These patterns are then compared with those resulting from the neutral dynamics, in which every species has the same fecundity rate and is competitively equivalent at a per capita level. Significant differences exist between riparian biodiversity patterns and those predicted by theories developed for two-dimensional landscapes. We find that dispersal directionality and network structure promote species that produce a large number of propagules at a species level; such species are considered competitively superior in the neutral model and inferior in the trade-off model. As a result, the two key characteristics of riparian systems, dispersal directionality and network structure, lead to lower and higher overall γ diversity in the former and the latter models, respectively. The network structure, through the containment effect due to limited cross-basin dispersal, always leads to higher between-community, β diversity. The spatial distribution of local, α diversity becomes heterogeneous and thus important under directional dispersal and network structure. A higher degree of dividedness results in higher γ diversity for communities obeying both neutral and trade-off models, but the increase is more dramatic in the latter.

  13. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  14. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  15. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  16. Geography of conservation spending, biodiversity, and culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, T R; Rankin, P S

    2016-10-01

    We used linear and multivariate models to examine the associations between geography, biodiversity, per capita economic output, national spending on conservation, governance, and cultural traits in 55 countries. Cultural traits and social metrics of modernization correlated positively with national spending on conservation. The global distribution of this spending culture was poorly aligned with the distribution of biodiversity. Specifically, biodiversity was greater in the tropics where cultures tended to spend relatively less on conservation and tended to have higher collectivism, formalized and hierarchical leadership, and weaker governance. Consequently, nations lacking social traits frequently associated with modernization, environmentalism, and conservation spending have the largest component of Earth's biodiversity. This has significant implications for setting policies and priorities for resource management given that biological diversity is rapidly disappearing and cultural traits change slowly. Therefore, we suggest natural resource management adapt to and use characteristics of existing social organization rather than wait for or promote social values associated with conservation spending. Supporting biocultural traditions, engaging leaders to increase conservation commitments, cross-national efforts that complement attributes of cultures, and avoiding interference with nature may work best to conserve nature in collective and hierarchical societies. Spending in modernized nations may be a symbolic response to a symptom of economic development and environmental degradation, and here conservation actions need to ensure that biodiversity is not being lost. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  18. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélaine Aubry-Kientz

    Full Text Available Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  19. Next-Generation Tropical Cyclone Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    during the same time period, and remains a formidable forecast problem. Advanced statistical prediction models nowadays are able to predict the trend...b) Fig. 2. Time series of COAMPS simulation results of Hurricane Katrina (2005) initialized at 1200 UTC 25 August 2005 of (a) surface maximum...judicial utilization of multi-model ensemble results. In contrast, the TC intensity forecast by numerical models has shown very little improvement

  20. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  1. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M. G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N. C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common ¼° horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990-2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal rainfall and a realistic northward seasonal migration of monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. At subseasonal time scales, the model reasonably reproduces summer monsoon active and break phases, although with underestimated rainfall and surface wind signals. Its relatively high resolution results in realistic spatial and seasonal distributions of tropical cyclones, but it fails to reproduce the strongest observed cyclone categories. At interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD development (through the effect of lateral boundary conditions in our simulations). Although the KF and BMJ simulations share a lot in common, KF strongly overestimates rainfall at all time scales. KF also overestimates the number of simulated cyclones by a factor two, while simulating stronger events (up to 55 m s-1) compared to BMJ (up to 40 m s-1). These results could be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF.

  2. A field work proposal for teaching biodiversity using ants as a model - doi: 10.4025/actascieduc.v32i2.11036

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Soares Cordeiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}  The field works is still a hard way for the teacher; however, they represent a major step for the study of biodiversity. Our country is considered mega-diverse but teaching this subject is complex. The objective of this study was to outline a protocol for field works so that the teachers can implement it during their lectures about biodiversity. The ants were chosen as study model since they are rich and abundant in most tropical ecosystems. Sardine baits were used in edible oil to collect these insects; and in order to obtain enough volume of biological material to base the discussions concerning the proposed issue three collection expeditions will be required, using 15 baits each.  

  3. Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2016-12-01

    Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatially heterogeneous, which may influence the success of microscopic dynamics locally. This prevents the synchronization of locally emerging oscillations, and ultimately results in a phenomenon where one type of randomness is used to mitigate the adverse effects of other types of randomness in the system.

  4. RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    1997-08-01

    A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model over this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. Regional policy models for forest biodiversity analysis: lessons from coastal Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, K Norman; Duncan, Sally; Spies, Thomas A

    2007-01-01

    The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million hectares of forest with a complex mixture of public and private ownership. Over a decade, CLAMS scientists developed regional data bases and tools to enable assessments of the implications of current policies for biodiversity and have begun using these data and tools to test ideas for solving policy problems. We summarize here four main lessons from our work: (1) Regional ecosystem perspectives, while rewarding, are difficult to achieve. Helping policy makers and the public understand biodiversity policies for an entire province can assist in developing more reasoned policies. However, this result is difficult to achieve because needed scientific building blocks generally do not exist, few policy institutions address regional cross-ownership issues, people can find it difficult to take a regional view, and the appropriate region for analysis changes with the policy problem. (2) Interest in environmental policy analysis may come as much from a pursuit of power as a pursuit of understanding. Biodiversity policy analyses are often viewed as weapons in an ongoing political battle. Also, results that might destabilize existing policies generally will not be well received by those in power. (3) The relationship of regional analyses to civic processes remains challenging and unsettled. Communication between citizens and scientists takes real effort. Also, collaborative processes both inspire and constrain regional policy analysis, and scientific work often proceeds at a different pace than these processes. In the end, CLAMS's most important effect on the civic dialogue may be to change how people think about

  6. Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Grow Progressively in Size and Decay in Intensity after Reaching Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-17

    TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH REPORT TCRR 2: 1–16 (2015) Meteorological Institute Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich Why do model tropical cyclones ...behaviour of tropical cyclones in the prototype problem for cyclone intensification on an f -plane is examined using a nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional...controlling the evolution of size and intensity of a tropical cyclone . It provides also a plausible, and arguably simpler, explanation for the expansion

  7. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Condori

    Full Text Available Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme. The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the

  8. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condori, Bruno; Hijmans, Robert J; Ledent, Jean Francois; Quiroz, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes. Four contrasting potato genotypes--representing genetic variability--were considered in the present study: two species of frost resistant native potatoes (the bitter Solanum juzepczukii, var. Luki, and the non-bitter Solanum ajanhuiri, var. Ajanhuiri) and two commercial frost susceptible genotypes (Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum var. Alpha and Solanum tuberosum ssp. andigenum var. Gendarme). The objective of the study was to conduct a comparative growth analysis of four genotypes and modeling their agronomic response under frost events. It included assessing their performance under Andean contrasting agroecological conditions. Independent subsets of data from four field experiments were used to parameterize, calibrate and validate a potato growth model. The validated model was used to ascertain the importance of biodiversity, represented by the four genotypes tested, as constituents of germplasm mixtures in single plots used by local farmers, a coping strategy in the face of climate variability. Also scenarios with a frost routine incorporated in the model were constructed. Luki and Ajanhuiri were the most frost resistant varieties whereas Alpha was the most susceptible. Luki and Ajanhuiri, as monoculture, outperformed the yield obtained with the mixtures under severe frosts. These results highlight the role played by local frost tolerant varieties, and featured the management importance--e.g. clean seed, strategic watering--to attain the yields reported in our experiments. The mixtures of local and introduced potatoes can thus not only provide the products demanded by the markets but also reduce the impact of frosts

  9. A model of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Richard; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.

    1988-01-01

    A model for the climatological mean sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Pacific Ocean is developed. The upper ocean response is computed using a time dependent, linear, reduced gravity model, with the addition of a constant depth frictional surface layer. The full three-dimensional temperature equation and a surface heat flux parameterization that requires specification of only wind speed and total cloud cover are used to evaluate the SST. Specification of atmospheric parameters, such as air temperature and humidity, over which the ocean has direct influence, is avoided. The model simulates the major features of the observed tropical Pacific SST. The seasonal evolution of these features is generally captured by the model. Analysis of the results demonstrates the control the ocean has over the surface heat flux from ocean to atmosphere and the crucial role that dynamics play in determining the mean SST in the equatorial Pacific. The sensitivity of the model to perturbations in the surface heat flux, cloud cover specification, diffusivity, and mixed layer depth is discussed.

  10. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  11. Neotropical Siluriformes as a Model for Insights on Determining Biodiversity of Animal Groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rúbia Ota

    Full Text Available We performed an analysis of the descriptions of new species of Neotropical Siluriformes (catfishes to estimate the number of new species that remain to be described for a complete knowledge on biodiversity of this order, to verify the effectiveness of taxonomic support, and to identify trends and present relevant information for future policies. We conducted a literature review of species descriptions between January 1990 and August 2014. The following metadata were recorded from each article: year of publication, number of species, journal and impact factor, family(s of the described species, number of authors, age of the authors and coauthors, country of the first author's institution and ecoregion of the type-locality. From accumulation of descriptions, we built an estimate model for number of species remaining to be described. We found 595 described species in 402 articles. The data demonstrated that there has been an increased understanding of the diversity of Siluriformes over the last 25 years in the Neotropical region, although 35% of the species still remain to be described. The model estimated that with the current trends and incentives, the biodiversity will be known in almost seven decades. We have reinforced the idea that greater joint efforts should be made by society and the scientific community to obtain this knowledge in a shorter period of time through enhanced programs for promoting science, training and the advancement of professionals before undiscovered species become extinct. The model built in this study can be used for similar estimates of other groups of animals.

  12. Pechora River basin integrated system management PRISM; biodiversity assessment for the Pechora River basin; Cluster B: biodiversity, land use & forestry modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der T.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the biodiversity for the Pechora River basin Integrated System Management (PRISM). The Pechora River Basin, situated just west of the Ural Mountains, Russia, consists of vast boreal forests and tundra landscapes, partly pristine and undisturbed. The concept of biodiversity is d

  13. Pechora River basin integrated system management PRISM; biodiversity assessment for the Pechora River basin; Cluster B: biodiversity, land use & forestry modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der T.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the biodiversity for the Pechora River basin Integrated System Management (PRISM). The Pechora River Basin, situated just west of the Ural Mountains, Russia, consists of vast boreal forests and tundra landscapes, partly pristine and undisturbed. The concept of biodiversity is

  14. Pechora River basin integrated system management PRISM; biodiversity assessment for the Pechora River basin; Cluster B: biodiversity, land use & forestry modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der T.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the biodiversity for the Pechora River basin Integrated System Management (PRISM). The Pechora River Basin, situated just west of the Ural Mountains, Russia, consists of vast boreal forests and tundra landscapes, partly pristine and undisturbed. The concept of biodiversity is d

  15. Time-dependent solutions of the spatially implicit neutral model of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A

    2011-09-01

    Previous research into the neutral theory of biodiversity has focused mainly on equilibrium solutions rather than time-dependent solutions. Understanding the time-dependent solutions is essential for applying neutral theory to ecosystems in which time-dependent processes, such as succession and invasion, are driving the dynamics. Time-dependent solutions also facilitate tests against data that are stronger than those based on static equilibrium patterns. Here I investigate the time-dependent solutions of the classic spatially implicit neutral model, in which a small local community is coupled to a much larger metacommunity through immigration. I present explicit general formulas for the eigenvalues, left eigenvectors and right eigenvectors of the models's transition matrix. The time-dependent solutions can then be expressed in terms of these eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Some of these results are translated directly from existing results for the classic Moran model of population genetics (the Moran model is equivalent to the spatially implicit neutral model after a reparameterization); others of the results are new. I demonstrate that the asymptotic time-dependent solution corresponding to just these first two eigenvectors can be a good approximation to the full time-dependent solution. I also demonstrate the feasibility of a partial eigendecomposition of the transition matrix, which facilitates direct application of the results to a biologically relevant example in which a newly invading species is initially present in the metacommunity but absent from the local community.

  16. Polarized microwave forward model simulations for tropical storm Fanoos

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C Balaji; M Deiveegan; S P Venkateshan; R M Gairola; A Sarkar; V K Agarwal

    2009-08-01

    In the present study, forward radiative transfer simulations are carried out for the tropical cyclone Fanoos that hit the coast off south India in December 2005. The in-house radiative transfer package used for this study employs the doubling and adding method to calculate radiances leaving the top of the one dimensional precipitating atmosphere. The particle drop size distribution is assumed to follow a modified gamma distribution in respect of the cloud liquid water and cloud ice water content. For precipitation, the Marshall–Palmer particle size distribution is used. All the hydrometeor particles are assumed to be spherical and Lorentz Mie theory is used to evaluate the interaction parameters like absorption, scattering coefficients and polarized scattering matrix. In order to validate the drop size distributions and interaction parameter calculations, the simulated brightness temperatures are compared with the TMI measured brightness temperatures for all the channels. For carrying out this exercise, vertical hydrometeors retrieved by TMI are used as input. The differences between simulated and measured brightness temperatures are found to be within ± 10%. The maximum difference in the brightness temperatures between the present work and the Eddington model which the TRMM algorithm employs is about 4.5K. This may become significant when retrieval of precipitation is attempted by combining the forward model with a suitable retrieval strategy, under tropical conditions.

  17. Numerical modelling of methyl iodide in the eastern tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Stemmler

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Methyl iodide (CH3I is a volatile organic halogen compound that contributes significantly to the transport of iodine from the ocean to the atmosphere, where it plays an important role in tropospheric chemistry. CH3I is naturally produced and occurs in the global ocean. The processes involved in the formation of CH3I, however, are not fully understood. In fact, there is an ongoing debate whether production by phytoplankton or photochemical degradation of organic matter is the main source term. Here, both the biological and photochemical production mechanisms are considered in a biogeochemical module that is coupled to a one-dimensional water column model for the eastern tropical Atlantic. The model is able to reproduce observed subsurface maxima of CH3I concentrations. But, the dominating source process cannot be clearly identified as subsurface maxima can occur due to both direct biological and photochemical production. However, good agreement between the observed and simulated difference between surface and subsurface methyl iodide concentrations is achieved only when direct biological production is taken into account. Production rates for the biological CH3I source that were derived from published laboratory studies are shown to be inappropriate for explaining CH3I concentrations in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  18. Tropical widening in models, reanalyses, and satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Young, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    Poleward migration of the latitudinal edge of the tropics of ~0.25 - 3° decade-1 has been reported in several recent studies based on satellite, radiosonde, and reanalysis data covering the past ~30 years. Disagreements between models and observations have been noted, and to date, it has been unclear to what extent this large range of trends can be explained by the use of different data sources, time periods, and edge definitions. In this presentation, we address these issues by applying a suite of tropical edge latitude diagnostics based on tropopause height, winds, precipitation/evaporation, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to six reanalyses and four satellite data sets. These diagnostics include both previously used definitions and new definitions designed for more robust detection. The wide range of widening trends is shown to be primarily due to the use of different data sets and edge definitions, and only secondarily due to varying start/end dates. We also show that the large trends (> ~ 1° decade-1) previously reported in tropopause and OLR diagnostics are partially due to the use of subjective definitions based on absolute thresholds. Statistically significant Hadley cell expansion based on the mean meridional streamfunction of ~1.0° decade-1 is present in all but one reanalysis, whereas other diagnostics yield trends of -0.5 - 0.8° decade-1 that are mostly insignificant. These results are compared to coupled model trends calculated over both the 20th and 21st centuries.

  19. Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Tropical And Sub-Tropical Agricultural Systems - A Review And Modelling Of Emission Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albanito, Fabrizio; Lebender, Ulrike; Cornulier, Thomas; Sapkota, Tek B.; Brentrup, Frank; Stirling, Clare; Hillier, Jon

    2017-03-01

    There has been much debate about the uncertainties associated with the estimation of direct and indirect agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in developing countries and in particular from tropical regions. In this study, we report an up-to-date review of the information published in peer-review journals on direct N2O emissions from agricultural systems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. We statistically analyze net-N2O-N emissions to estimate tropic-specific annual N2O emission factors (N2O-EFs) using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) which allowed the effects of multiple covariates to be modelled as linear or smooth non-linear continuous functions. Overall the mean N2O-EF was 1.2% for the tropics and sub-tropics, thus within the uncertainty range of IPCC-EF. On a regional basis, mean N2O-EFs were 1.4% for Africa, 1.1%, for Asia, 0.9% for Australia and 1.3% for Central & South America. Our annual N2O-EFs, estimated for a range of fertiliser rates using the available data, do not support recent studies hypothesising non-linear increase N2O-EFs as a function of applied N. Our findings highlight that in reporting annual N2O emissions and estimating N2O-EFs, particular attention should be paid in modelling the effect of study length on response of N2O.

  20. Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferry Slik JW

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. The tropics also harbour more than half the world's threatened species, raising the possibility that reducing GHG emissions by curtailing tropical deforestation could provide substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation. Here we explore the potential for such co-benefits in Indonesia, a leading source of GHG emissions from land cover and land use change, and among the most species-rich countries in the world. We show that focal ecosystems for interventions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia do not coincide with areas supporting the most species-rich communities or highest concentration of threatened species. We argue that inherent trade-offs among ecosystems in emission reduction potential, opportunity cost of foregone development and biodiversity values will require a regulatory framework to balance emission reduction interventions with biodiversity co-benefit targets. We discuss how such a regulatory framework might function, and caution that pursuing emission reduction strategies without such a framework may undermine, not enhance, long-term prospects for biodiversity conservation in the tropics.

  1. Transformations for temperature flux in multiscale models of the tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J. [New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2006-11-15

    How much of the observed planetary-scale heating in the tropics is due to eddy flux convergence? A mathematical framework to address this important practical issue is developed here. We describe a pair of velocity transformations that remove components of the upscale temperature flux in the multiscale intraseasonal, planetary, equatorial synoptic-scale dynamics (IPESD) framework derived by Majda and Klein [J. Atmos. Sci. 60: 393-408, (2003)]. Using examples from the models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation of Biello and Majda [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101: 4736-4741, (2004); J. Atmos. Sci. 62: 1694-1721, (2005); Dyn. Oceans Atmos., in press] we demonstrate that the transformation for the meridional temperature flux convergence is possible with any restrictions on the heating profile, we show under which conditions the transformation for the vertical temperature flux convergence exists and, further, that the meridional transformation leads to a reinterpretation of lower troposphere Ekman dissipation as active heating plus zonal momentum drag. The meridional temperature flux transformation and induced meridional circulation is a new, tropical wave example of the transformed Eulerian mean theory in the case of strong vertical stratification of potential temperature. The asymptotic ordering of the flows means that the removal of the meridional temperature flux convergence has implications for how planetary-scale heating rates are inferred from velocity convergence measurements. (orig.)

  2. Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeyeong Choe

    Full Text Available Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS multi-response species distribution model to overcome species' data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species' ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species' presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the

  3. Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Hyeyeong; Thorne, James H; Seo, Changwan

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) multi-response species distribution model to overcome species' data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species' ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species' presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD) calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the threshold and scale

  4. Proposta de atividade de campo para o ensino de biodiversidade usando formigas como modelo = A field work proposal for teaching biodiversity using ants as a model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Soares Cordeiro

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available As atividades de campo continuam sendo um caminho árduo para o professor, entretanto, elas representam um dos principais passos para o estudo da biodiversidade. Nosso país é considerado megadiverso, mas ensinar sobre esse tema é complexo. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho foi delinear um protocolo de atividades de campo para que o professor possa aplicar durante suas aulas sobre diversidade biológica. As formigas foram escolhidas como modelo de estudo, pois são ricas e abundantes na grande maioria dos ecossistemas tropicais. Foram usadas iscas de sardinha em óleo comestível para a coleta desses insetos; e para a obtenção de um volume de material biológico suficiente paraembasar as discussões pertinentes sobre o assunto proposto serão necessárias três expedições de coleta, com 15 iscas cada uma.The field works is still a hard way for the teacher; however, they represent a major step for the study of biodiversity. Our country is considered mega-diverse but teaching this subject is complex. The objective of this study was to outline a protocol for field works sothat the teachers can implement it during their lectures about biodiversity. The ants were chosen as study model since they are rich and abundant in most tropical ecosystems. Sardine baits were used in edible oil to collect these insects; and in order to obtain enoughvolume of biological material to base the discussions concerning the proposed issue three collection expeditions will be required, using 15 baits each.

  5. Linking disturbance and resistance to invasion via changes in biodiversity: a conceptual model and an experimental test on rocky reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleri, Fabio; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Jaklin, Andrej; Iveša, Ljiljana

    2016-04-01

    Biological invasions threaten biodiversity worldwide. Nonetheless, a unified theory linking disturbance and resistance to invasion through a mechanistic understanding of the changes caused to biodiversity is elusive. Building on different forms of the disturbance-biodiversity relationship and on the Biotic Resistance Hypothesis (BRH), we constructed conceptual models showing that, according to the main biodiversity mechanism generating invasion resistance (complementary vs. identity effects), disturbance can either promote or hinder invasion. Following the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH), moderate levels of disturbance (either frequency or intensity) are expected to enhance species richness. This will promote invasion resistance when complementarity is more important than species identity. Negative effects of severe disturbance on invasion resistance, due to reductions in species richness, can be either overcompensated or exacerbated by species identity effects, depending on the life-traits becoming dominant within the native species pool. Different invasion resistance scenarios are generated when the diversity-disturbance relationship is negative or positive monotonic. Predictions from these models were experimentally tested on rocky reefs. Macroalgal canopies differing in species richness (1 vs. 2 vs. 3) and identity, were exposed to either a moderate or a severe pulse disturbance. The effects of different canopy-forming species on the seaweed, Caulerpa cylindracea, varied from positive (Cystoseira crinita) to neutral (Cystoseira barbata) to negative (Cystoseira compressa). After 2 years, severely disturbed plots were monopolized by C. compressa and supported less C. cylindracea. Our study shows that the effects of disturbance on invasion depend upon its intensity, the main mechanism through which biodiversity generates invasion resistance and the life-traits selected within the native species pool. Disturbance can sustain invasion resistance when

  6. The Effectiveness of Conservation Reserves: Land Tenure Impacts upon Biodiversity across Extensive Natural Landscapes in the Tropical Savannahs of the Northern Territory, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C.Z. Woinarski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether there is a biodiversity benefit (“dividend” associated with the existence and management of conservation reserves in the extensive and largely natural landscape of northern Australia. Species richness and abundance of vertebrate fauna and the intensity of a range of disturbance factors were compared across a set of 967 sampled quadrats, located either in pastoral lands, Indigenous lands or conservation reserves, with all sampled quadrats within a single vegetation type (open forests and savannah woodlands dominated by Eucalyptus miniata and/or E. tetrodonta. The relationships with land tenure varied between major taxonomic groups, but generally (and particularly for threatened species values were highest for conservation reserves. This “biodiversity dividend” associated with conservation reserves is considered to be due to the effects of management rather than because conservation reserves were established on lands supporting atypically high conservation values. The impact of weeds and (unsurprisingly livestock was greatest on pastoral lands, and pig impact was greatest in conservation reserves. Although pastoral and Indigenous lands supported lower biodiversity tallies than reserved lands, the conservation values of reserved lands in this region are probably substantially supported by the maintenance of relatively intact ecological systems across all lands.

  7. Modeling washoff of total suspended solids in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, S H; Chua, L H C; Irvine, K N; Eikaas, H S

    2017-09-15

    Washoff behavior in the tropics is expected to behave differently from temperate areas due to differences in rainfall characteristics. In this study, rainfall, runoff and total suspended solids (TSS) were monitored from 9 catchments distinguished by different types of land use, in Singapore. The catchments ranged in size from 5.7ha to 85.2ha. Over 120 rain events were studied and more than 1000 storm samples were collected and analyzed. Monte Carlo analysis was applied to obtain the best fit values of the washoff model parameters consisting the washoff coefficient c3, washoff exponent c4 and initial mass on surface Bini. The exponent c4 was found to be approximately unity for all the events monitored, in agreement with other studies. The values of c3 and Bini were found to vary between events. Among all the rainfall and runoff characteristics studied, rainfall depth of the current event (d) was found to be the single parameter that significantly influenced the values of c3 and Bini. Contrary to expectations, Bini did not correlate well with antecedent dry period or with rainfall depth of the prior storm event. The results show that the common modeling practice where Bini is assumed to vary with antecedent dry period and previous rainfall depth should be reassessed when applied to catchments in the tropics. ANCOVA analysis showed that land use was not significant, but rather the variation of c3 and Bini with d was found to correlate well with the catchment area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling Soil Water in the Caatinga Tropical Dry Forest of Northeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, C.; Wilcox, B.; Souza, E.; Lima, J. R. D. S.; West, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    The Caatinga is a tropical dry forest unique to northeastern Brazil. It has a relatively high degree of endism and supports a population of about 20 million subsistence farmers. However, it is poorly understood, under-researched and often over-looked in regards to other Brazilian ecosystems. It is a highly perturbed system that suffers from deforestation, land use change, and may be threatened by climate change. How these perturbations affect hydrology is unknown, but may have implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services and resiliency. Therefore, understanding key hydrological processes is critical, particularly as related to deforestation. In this study, Hydrus 1D, which is based on van Genuchten parameters to describe the soil water curve and Richard's Equation to describe flow in the vadose zone, was used to model soil moisture in the Caatinga ecosystem. The aim was 1) to compare hydraulic characterization between a forested Caatinga site and a deforested pasture site, 2) to analyze inter-annual variability, and 3) to compare with observed soil moisture data. Hydraulic characterization included hydraulic conductivity, infiltration, water content and pressure head trends. Van Genuchten parameters were derived using the Beerkan method, which is based on soil texture, particle distribution, as well as in-situ small-scale infiltration experiments. Observational data included soil moisture and precipitation logged every half-hour from September 2013 to April 2014 to include the dry season and rainy season. It is expected that the forested Caatinga site will have a higher hydraulic conductivity as well as retain higher soil moisture values. These differences may be amplified during the dry season, as water resources become scarce. Deviations between modeled data and observed data will allow for further hypothesis to be proposed, especially those related to soil water repellency. Hence, these results may indicate difference in soil water dynamics between a

  9. Linking disturbance and resistance to invasion via changes in biodiversity: a conceptual model and an experimental test on rocky reefs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bulleri, Fabio; Benedetti‐Cecchi, Lisandro; Jaklin, Andrej; Iveša, Ljiljana

    2016-01-01

    Biological invasions threaten biodiversity worldwide. Nonetheless, a unified theory linking disturbance and resistance to invasion through a mechanistic understanding of the changes caused to biodiversity is elusive...

  10. Modeling multiple resource limitation in tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Xu, X.; Zarakas, C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are characterized by a long dry season when little rain falls. At the same time, many neotropical soils are highly weathered and relatively nutrient poor. Because TDFs are often subject to both water and nutrient constraints, the question of how they will respond to environmental perturbations is both complex and highly interesting. Models, our basic tools for projecting ecosystem responses to global change, can be used to address this question. However, few models have been specifically parameterized for TDFs. Here, we present a new version of the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model that includes a new parameterization of TDFs. In particular, we focus on the model's framework for representing limitation by multiple resources (carbon, water, nitrogen, and phosphorus). Plant functional types are represented in terms of a dichotomy between "acquisitive" and "conservative" resource acquisition strategies. Depending on their resource acquisition strategy and basic stoichiometry, plants can dynamically adjust their allocation to organs (leaves, stem, roots), symbionts (e.g. N2-fixing bacteria), and mycorrhizal fungi. Several case studies are used to investigate how resource acquisition strategies affect ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations. Results are described in terms of the basic setting (e.g., rich vs. poor soils; longer vs. shorter dry season), and well as the type and magnitude of environmental perturbation (e.g., changes in precipitation or temperature; changes in nitrogen deposition). Implications for ecosystem structure and functioning are discussed.

  11. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  12. Tropical landscapes in transition? : Widespread land-use change and measures to maintain forests, carbon stocks and biodiversity in North and East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Laan, C.

    2016-01-01

    The production of commodities such as palm oil and pulpwood is leading to large-scale land use change in the rural tropics to fulfil the demands of the increasing world population and overall living standard. On the one hand, such land use changes provide income to companies, smallholders and govern

  13. Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaqiong ZHOU; Johnny C.L.CHEN

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques-the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM). In the BGM experiments, the vortex and the environment are perturbed separately (named BGMV and BGME).Tropical cyclone (TC) motions in two difficult situations are studied: a large vortex interacting with its environment, and an apparent binary interaction. The former is Typhoon Yancy and the latter involves Typhoon Ed and super Typhoon Flo, all occurring during the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM-90. The model used is the baroclinic model of the University of New South Wales. The lateral boundary tendencies are computed from atmospheric analysis data. Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies. In the case of Yancy, the ensemble mean forecasts of each of the three methodologies are better than that of the control, with LAF being the best. The mean track of the LAF is close to the best track, and it predicts landfall over Taiwan. The improvements in LAF and the full BGM where both the environment and vortex are perturbed suggest the importance of combining the perturbation of the vortex and environment when the interaction between the two is appreciable. In the binary interaction case of Ed and Flo, the forecasts of Ed appear to be insensitive to perturbations of the environment and/or the vortex, which apparently results from erroneous forecasts by the model of the interaction between the subtropical ridge and Ed, as well as from the interaction between the two typhoons, thus reducing the effectiveness of the EF technique. This conclusion is reached through sensitivity experiments on the domain of the model and by adding or eliminating certain features in the model atmosphere. Nevertheless, the

  14. Contradictory hydrological impacts of afforestation in the humid tropics evidenced by long-term field monitoring and simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacombe, Guillaume; Ribolzi, Olivier; de Rouw, Anneke; Pierret, Alain; Latsachak, Keoudone; Silvera, Norbert; Pham Dinh, Rinh; Orange, Didier; Janeau, Jean-Louis; Soulileuth, Bounsamai; Robain, Henri; Taccoen, Adrien; Sengphaathith, Phouthamaly; Mouche, Emmanuel; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Tran Duc, Toan; Valentin, Christian

    2016-07-01

    The humid tropics are exposed to an unprecedented modernisation of agriculture involving rapid and mixed land-use changes with contrasted environmental impacts. Afforestation is often mentioned as an unambiguous solution for restoring ecosystem services and enhancing biodiversity. One consequence of afforestation is the alteration of streamflow variability which controls habitats, water resources, and flood risks. We demonstrate that afforestation by tree planting or by natural forest regeneration can induce opposite hydrological changes. An observatory including long-term field measurements of fine-scale land-use mosaics and of hydrometeorological variables has been operating in several headwater catchments in tropical southeast Asia since 2000. The GR2M water balance model, repeatedly calibrated over successive 1-year periods and used in simulation mode with the same year of rainfall input, allowed the hydrological effect of land-use change to be isolated from that of rainfall variability in two of these catchments in Laos and Vietnam. Visual inspection of hydrographs, correlation analyses, and trend detection tests allowed causality between land-use changes and changes in seasonal streamflow to be ascertained. In Laos, the combination of shifting cultivation system (alternation of rice and fallow) and the gradual increase of teak tree plantations replacing fallow led to intricate streamflow patterns: pluri-annual streamflow cycles induced by the shifting system, on top of a gradual streamflow increase over years caused by the spread of the plantations. In Vietnam, the abandonment of continuously cropped areas combined with patches of mix-trees plantations led to the natural re-growth of forest communities followed by a gradual drop in streamflow. Soil infiltrability controlled by surface crusting is the predominant process explaining why two modes of afforestation (natural regeneration vs. planting) led to opposite changes in streamflow regime. Given that

  15. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time

  16. Carbon storage in tropical forests correlates with taxonomic diversity and functional dominance on global scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cavanaugh, K.C.; Gosnell, S.; Davis, S.L.; Ahumada, J.; Boundja, P.; Clark, D.B.; Mugerwa, B.; Jansen, P.A.; O'Brien, T.G.; Rovero, F.; Sheil, D.; Vasquez, R.; Andelman, S.

    2014-01-01

    We examined (1) the relationships between aboveground tropical forest C storage, biodiversity and environmental drivers and (2) how these relationships inform theory concerning ecosystem function and biodiversity. Experiments have shown that there is a positive relationship between biodiversity and

  17. Ensemble single column model validation in the tropical western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, Timothy; Jakob, Christian

    2007-05-01

    Single column models (SCMs) are useful tools for the evaluation of parameterizations of radiative and moist processes used in general circulation models (GCMs). SCM applications have usually been limited to regions where high-quality observations are available to derive the necessary boundary condition or forcing data. Recently, researchers have developed techniques for deriving SCM forcing data from other data sets, such as NWP (numerical weather prediction) analyses. The uncertainties inherent in these forcing data products have an unknown and possibly significant effect on SCM runs. This paper shows how an ensemble SCM (ESCM) approach can be used to minimize the uncertainty in SCM simulations resulting from uncertainties in the forcing data. Some innovative evaluation techniques have been applied to ESCM runs at the tropical western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites at Manus Island and Nauru. These techniques, making use of traditional ensemble verification methods and objectively determined cloud regimes, are shown to be able to highlight parameterization deficiencies and provide a useful tool for testing new or improved model parameterizations.

  18. Tropical extra-tropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the Community Climate Model v.3 Part I: the Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Wainer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The climatological annual mean tropical-extra-tropical pathways of thermocline waters in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated with the NCAR CCSM numerical coupled model. Results from three numerical experiments are analyzed: Two are fully coupled runs with different spatial resolution (T42 and T85 for the atmospheric component. The third numerical experiment is an ocean-only run forced by NCEP winds and fluxes. Results show that the different atmospheric resolutions have a significant impact on the subduction pathways in the Atlantic because of how the wind field is represented. These simulation results also show that the water subducted at the subtropics reaching the EUC is entirely from the South Atlantic. The coupled model ability to simulate the STCs is discussed.

  19. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  20. How Well Does LCA Model Land Use Impacts on Biodiversity?--A Comparison with Approaches from Ecology and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Michael; de Souza, Danielle Maia; Antón, Assumpció; Teixeira, Ricardo F M; Michelsen, Ottar; Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz; Sala, Serenella; Milà i Canals, Llorenç

    2016-03-15

    The modeling of land use impacts on biodiversity is considered a priority in life cycle assessment (LCA). Many diverging approaches have been proposed in an expanding literature on the topic. The UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative is engaged in building consensus on a shared modeling framework to highlight best-practice and guide model application by practitioners. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of 31 models from both the LCA and the ecology/conservation literature (20 from LCA, 11 from non-LCA fields) according to a set of criteria reflecting (i) model completeness, (ii) biodiversity representation, (iii) impact pathway coverage, (iv) scientific quality, and (v) stakeholder acceptance. We show that LCA models tend to perform worse than those from ecology and conservation (although not significantly), implying room for improvement. We identify seven best-practice recommendations that can be implemented immediately to improve LCA models based on existing approaches in the literature. We further propose building a "consensus model" through weighted averaging of existing information, to complement future development. While our research focuses on conceptual model design, further quantitative comparison of promising models in shared case studies is an essential prerequisite for future informed model choice.

  1. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  2. A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models

    OpenAIRE

    Suzana J. Camargo; Barnston, Anthony G; Zebiak, Stephen E.

    2005-01-01

    The properties of tropical cyclones in three low-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in seven ocean basins are discussed. The models are forced by prescribed, observed sea surface temperatures over a period of 40 yr, and their simulations of tropical cyclone activity are compared with observations. The model cyclone characteristics considered include genesis position, number of cyclones per year, seasonality, accumulated cyclone energy, track locations, and number of sto...

  3. Biodiversity Performs!

    Science.gov (United States)

    World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC.

    This document features a lesson plan in which students work in teams to act out different ecosystem services, describe several free services that biodiversity provides to human, and explain how these services make life on earth possible. Samples of instruction and assessment are included. (KHR)

  4. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

    2016-10-20

    Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational

  5. Overview of Theory and Model of Tropical Agricultural Circular Economy in Hainan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper gives a general overview of rationale of tropical agricultural circular economy.On the basis of ecological economic theory,circular economy is a new model of economic development which aims at realizing reducing of resources use,reuse of products and recycling of wastes,conforming to the principle of 4R.It is to make economic system melt into the process of cycle of material of natural ecological system harmoniously.This paper introduces the advantages of developing tropical agriculture in Hainan Province,the main problems existing in the development and two main models of sustainable tropical agricultural development in Hainan Province at present.9 typical models of tropical agricultural circular economy in Hainan Province are listed in particular,including compound ecological project of forestry and animal husbandry,three-dimensional planting model of plantation,multilayered structure of eucalyptuses,sustainable agricultural model of sightseeing,the model of using animal manure,precision tropical agricultural model,clean production model of tropical agriculture,deep processing model of tropical agricultural products,and the model of ecological agricultural industrialization.Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote development of tropical agricultural circular economy in Hainan Province as follows:take actions that suit local circumstances,exert advantage and exploit potential;give full play to advantage of integration of production,teaching and research,and promote agriculture by applying scientific and technological advances;the whole staff participate and strengthen construction of soft environment and hard environment.

  6. The role of phosphorus dynamics in tropical forests – a modeling study using CLM-CNP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yang

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and global climate. However, tropical carbon cycling and the feedbacks from tropical ecosystems to the climate system remain critical uncertainties in current generation carbon-climate models. One of the major uncertainties comes from the lack of representation of phosphorus (P, the most limiting nutrient in tropical regions. Here we introduce P dynamics and C–N–P interactions into the CLM4-CN model and investigate the role of P cycling in controlling the productivity of tropical ecosystems. The newly developed CLM-CNP model includes all major biological and geochemical processes controlling P availability in soils and the interactions between C, N, and P cycles. Model simulations at sites along a Hawaiian soil chronosequence indicate that the introduction of P limitation greatly improved the model performance at the P-limited site. The model is also able to capture the shift in nutrient limitation along this chronosequence (from N limited to P limited, as shown in the comparison of model simulated plant responses to fertilization with the observed data. Model simulations at Amazonian forest sites show that CLM-CNP is capable of capturing the overall trend in NPP along the P availability gradient. This comparison also suggests a significant interaction between nutrient limitation and land use history. Model experiments under elevated atmospheric CO2 ([CO2] condition suggest that tropical forest responses to increasing [CO2] will interact strongly with changes in the P cycle. We highlight the importance of two feedback pathways (biochemical mineralization and desorption of secondary mineral P that can significantly affect P availability and determine the extent of P limitation in tropical forests under elevated [CO2]. Field experiments with elevated CO2 are therefore needed to help quantify these important feedbacks. Predictive modeling of C–P interactions will have

  7. Biodiversity Conservation in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Dale Squires

    2014-01-01

    Asian's remarkable economic growth brought many benefits but also fuelled threats to its ecosystems and biodiversity. Economic growth brings biodiversity threats but also conservation opportunities. Continued biodiversity loss is inevitable, but the types, areas and rates of biodiversity loss are not. Prioritising biodiversity conservation, tempered by what is tractable, remains a high priority. Policy and market distortions and failures significantly underprice biodiversity, undermine ecosys...

  8. Analysis of Forest Biodiversity Changes in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    By reference of the evaluative data of forest biodiversity changes in China from 1973 to 1998, the variation analysis models of the pressure index of forest biodiversity, forest ecosystem diversity and forest species diversity, as well as the general index of forest biodiversity are developed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Furthermore established is the relevant model of mutation of forest diversity potential functions. This paper points out that changes of forest biodiversity...

  9. Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Wehner

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.

  10. Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling (SDM is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1 spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2 differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3 the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

  11. Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Castañeda, Genoveva; Hof, Anouschka R; Jansson, Roland; Harding, Larisa E

    2012-01-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1) spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2) differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3) the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

  12. Modification of global precipitation data for enhanced hydrologic modeling of tropical montane watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, Michael; Kumar, Rohini; Eisner, Stephanie; Mulligan, Mark; Reinhardt, Julia; Samaniego, Luis; Santini, William; Vetter, Tobias; Friesen, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Global gridded precipitation is an essential driving input for hydrologic models to simulate runoff dynamics in large river basins. However, the data often fail to adequately represent precipitation variability in mountainous regions due to orographic effects and sparse and highly uncertain gauge data. Water balance simulations in tropical montane regions covered by cloud forests are especially challenging because of the additional water input from cloud water interception. The ISI-MIP2 hydrologic model ensemble encountered these problems for Andean sub-basins of the Upper Amazon Basin, where all models significantly underestimated observed runoff. In this paper, we propose simple yet plausible ways to adjust global precipitation data provided by WFDEI, the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis, for tropical montane watersheds. The modifications were based on plausible reasoning and freely available tropics-wide data: (i) a high-resolution climatology of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and (ii) the percentage of tropical montane cloud forest cover. Using the modified precipitation data, runoff predictions significantly improved for all hydrologic models considered. The precipitation adjustment methods presented here have the potential to enhance other global precipitation products for hydrologic model applications in the Upper Amazon Basin as well as in other tropical montane watersheds.

  13. Ensemble superparameterization versus stochastic parameterization: A comparison of model uncertainty representation in tropical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-06-01

    Stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainty in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system has helped improve its probabilistic forecast skill over the past decade by both improving its reliability and reducing the ensemble mean error. The largest uncertainties in the model arise from the model physics parameterizations. In the tropics, the parameterization of moist convection presents a major challenge for the accurate prediction of weather and climate. Superparameterization is a promising alternative strategy for including the effects of moist convection through explicit turbulent fluxes calculated from a cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded within a global climate model (GCM). In this paper, we compare the impact of initial random perturbations in embedded CRMs, within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, with stochastically perturbed physical tendency (SPPT) scheme as a way to represent model uncertainty in medium-range tropical weather forecasts. We especially focus on forecasts of tropical convection and dynamics during MJO events in October-November 2011. These are well-studied events for MJO dynamics as they were also heavily observed during the DYNAMO field campaign. We show that a multiscale ensemble modeling approach helps improve forecasts of certain aspects of tropical convection during the MJO events, while it also tends to deteriorate certain large-scale dynamic fields with respect to stochastically perturbed physical tendencies approach that is used operationally at ECMWF.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryProbabilistic weather forecasts, especially for tropical weather, is still a significant challenge for global weather forecasting systems. Expressing uncertainty along with weather forecasts is important for informed decision making. Hence, we explore the use of a relatively new approach in using super-parameterization, where a cloud resolving model is embedded within a global

  14. Solution of the Unanimity Rule on exponential, uniform and scalefree networks: A simple model for biodiversity collapse in foodwebs

    CERN Document Server

    Hanel, Rudolf

    2007-01-01

    We solve the Unanimity Rule on networks with exponential, uniform and scalefree degree distributions. In particular we arrive at equations relating the asymptotic number of nodes in one of two states to the initial fraction of nodes in this state. The solutions for exponential and uniform networks are exact, the approximation for the scalefree case is in perfect agreement with simulation results. We use these solutions to provide a theoretical understanding for experimental data on biodiversity loss in foodwebs, which is available for the three network types discussed. The model allows in principle to estimate the critical value of species that have to be removed from the system to induce its complete collapse.

  15. Assessing biodiversity funding during the sixth extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, George; DeSalle, Rob

    2012-08-01

    Funding for understanding biodiversity on this planet has had a checkered and unsatisfactory history. There have been some true successes in developing models for assessing biodiversity, but satisfactory governmental and international support has been piecemeal and unsatisfactory. A true solution to the biodiversity crisis will require greater attention from governmental and international funding agencies.

  16. A Global Climate Model based event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in the West Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Renato; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Stephenson, David; Cook, Ian; Flay, Shaun; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    We propose a new approach to the creation of a stochastic event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in West Pacific, for use in the insurance industry in the catastrophe modelling process. The event set is based on both available observational data and a database of tropical cyclones dynamically simulated by a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. For an initial proof of concept exercise we focus on the West Pacific region: Japan, China and South-East Asia. A database of tropical cyclone tracks is extracted from over 200 years of current climate simulations by HiGEM1.1, a high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Model. A bias correction procedure is applied to model the central pressure of the dynamically HiGEM-simulated tropical cyclones in terms of the observed (IBTrACS) distribution of central pressures. The bias-corrected storm track database is statistically sampled and spatially perturbed to produce a 1000 year database of synthetic storms. The proposed approach has several advantages: 1. it is based on a long-term, globally consistent source of dynamically simulated tropical storms under current state of the atmosphere/climate; this compensates reliance on limited and/or inconsistent historical data and provides a much larger sampling for the distribution of the tropical cyclone landfalls; 2. it allows assessment of how large scale natural climate variability may influence regional tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal time scales, and how this may alter risk; 3. it allows to analyse teleconnections in weather extremes, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. it can be further developed to assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. Adopting an integrated approach may begin to change the way that weather related risk is understood and assessed in the insurance industry.

  17. Spatial characteristics of the tropical cloud systems: comparison between model simulation and satellite observations

    OpenAIRE

    Guang J. Zhang; Zurovac-Jevtic, Dance; Erwin R Boer

    2011-01-01

    A Lagrangian cloud classification algorithm is applied to the cloud fields in the tropical Pacificsimulated by a high-resolution regional atmospheric model. The purpose of this work is toassess the model’s ability to reproduce the observed spatial characteristics of the tropical cloudsystems. The cloud systems are broadly grouped into three categories: deep clouds, mid-levelclouds and low clouds. The deep clouds are further divided into mesoscale convective systemsand non-mesoscale convective...

  18. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, N.; Muir, L.; Vincent, E. M.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2015-12-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in this project). Our study investigates the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis confirms that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific translate into a cold equatorial SST bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extended extra-tropical Pacific, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs - a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias is to improve the representation of cloud albedo in mid-latitudes.

  19. Estimating impacts of plantation forestry on plant biodiversity in southern Chile-a spatially explicit modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Andreas Christian; Koch, Barbara

    2016-10-01

    Monitoring the impacts of land-use practices is of particular importance with regard to biodiversity hotspots in developing countries. Here, conserving the high level of unique biodiversity is challenged by limited possibilities for data collection on site. Especially for such scenarios, assisting biodiversity assessments by remote sensing has proven useful. Remote sensing techniques can be applied to interpolate between biodiversity assessments taken in situ. Through this approach, estimates of biodiversity for entire landscapes can be produced, relating land-use intensity to biodiversity conditions. Such maps are a valuable basis for developing biodiversity conservation plans. Several approaches have been published so far to interpolate local biodiversity assessments in remote sensing data. In the following, a new approach is proposed. Instead of inferring biodiversity using environmental variables or the variability of spectral values, a hypothesis-based approach is applied. Empirical knowledge about biodiversity in relation to land-use is formalized and applied as ascription rules for image data. The method is exemplified for a large study site (over 67,000 km(2)) in central Chile, where forest industry heavily impacts plant diversity. The proposed approach yields a coefficient of correlation of 0.73 and produces a convincing estimate of regional biodiversity. The framework is broad enough to be applied to other study sites.

  20. THE OBJECTIVE ANALOGUE PREDICTION MODEL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WITH COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟元

    2002-01-01

    An objective analogue prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) track is put forward that comprehensively assesses the environmental field. With the parameters of the tropical cyclone and environmental field at initial and future time, objective analogue criteria are set up in the model. Analogous samples are recognized by comprehensive assessment of historical TC cases for similarity with multivariate criteria, using non-linear analogue indexes especially defined for the purpose. When the historical tracks are coordinateconverted and weighted with reference to analogue indexes, forecast tracks are determined. As shown in model verification and forecast experiments, the model has forecasting skill.

  1. Modeling the impact of land surface feedbacks on post landfall tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Subashini

    The land surface is an important component of numerical models. The land surface models are modules that control energy partitioning, compute surface exchange coefficients and form the only physical boundary in a regional scale numerical model. Thus, an accurate representation of land surface is critical to compute surface fluxes, represent the boundary layer evolution and affect changes in weather systems. Land surface can affect landfalling tropical cyclones in two ways: (i) when the cyclone is offshore and land can influence cyclones by introducing dry (or moist) air that can weaken (or strengthen) the organized convective structure of cyclones, and (ii) land can affect the evolution of cyclones post landfall by modifying the surface heat fluxes and introducing additional surface drag. In this dissertation, the hypothesis that improved representation of land surface conditions will improve the prediction of landfalling tropical cyclones is tested. To that effect, a comprehensive review of land surface effects on tropical cyclones was undertaken and an idealized study was conducted to study the impact of antecedent soil temperature on the sustenance/reintensification of tropical cyclones over land. Rainfall verification for cyclone events over the Atlantic Ocean was conducted and a comparison study between land models--GFDL Slab and Noah, also considers the sensitivity of tropical cyclone models to land surface parameterizations. The recent adoption of Noah land model with hydrology products in HWRF offers a unique opportunity to couple a river routing model to HWRF to provide streamflow estimations from the HWRF model and this dissertation has outlined techniques to real time predict streamflow for United States with HWRF forcing. Results from this dissertation research indicate antecedent land surface conditions can affect tropical cyclone evolution post landfall and high soil temperature and thermally diffusive soil texture of land surface are critical factors

  2. Mycorrhizas and tropical soil fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Kuyper, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Major factors that constrain tropical soil fertility and sustainable agriculture are low nutrient capital, moisture stress, erosion, high P fixation, high acidity with aluminium toxicity, and low soil biodiversity. The fragility of many tropical soils limits food production in annual cropping system

  3. Mycorrhizas and tropical soil fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Kuyper, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Major factors that constrain tropical soil fertility and sustainable agriculture are low nutrient capital, moisture stress, erosion, high P fixation, high acidity with aluminium toxicity, and low soil biodiversity. The fragility of many tropical soils limits food production in annual cropping system

  4. Current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Kaschner

    Full Text Available Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

  5. Current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaschner, Kristin; Tittensor, Derek P; Ready, Jonathan; Gerrodette, Tim; Worm, Boris

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

  6. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    Humans have altered or replaced native ecosystems across more than three quarters of the terrestrial biosphere, creating new global patterns of biodiversity as a result of native species extinctions, domestication and anthropogenic introductions of nonnative species. These anthropogenic global changes in biodiversity have been portrayed as resulting primarily from recent and unprecedented human disturbances that are potentially indicative of catastrophic changes in the Earth system. Yet anthropogenic changes in species richness and community structure caused by human populations and their use of land have been widespread and profound in many regions since before the Holocene, and have been sustained for millennia in many regions, especially in the Temperate Zone. Beyond the anthropogenic megafaunal extinctions of the Pleistocene, habitat loss and fragmentation by agricultural land use has been sustained throughout the Holocene in many biomes at levels theoretically associated with major species extinctions. Anthropogenic patterns of species extinction differ greatly among taxa, with mammals and other larger fauna showing the greatest impacts. However, spatially explicit observations and models of contemporary global patterns of vascular plant species richness confirm that while native losses are likely significant across at least half of Earth's ice-free land, species richness has increased overall in most regional landscapes, mostly because nonnative species invasions tend to exceed native losses. Effective stewardship of biodiversity in the Anthropocene will require integrated global frameworks for observing, modeling and forecasting anthropogenic biodiversity change processes within the novel biotic communities created and sustained by human systems.; Percentage of terrestrial biomes converted to agricultural land over time. ; Conceptual diagram of biodiversity patterns associated with variations in population density, land use and land cover.

  7. Decision support system for peatland management in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ritzema, H.P.; Grobbe, T.; Chong, T.; Wösten, J.H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Large areas of globally important tropical peatland in Southeast Asia are threatened by land clearance, degradation and fire, jeopardising their natural functions as reservoirs of biodiversity, carbon stores and hydrological buffers. Many development projects on tropical peatlands have failed

  8. Decision support system for peatland management in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ritzema, H.P.; Grobbe, T.; Chong, T.; Wösten, J.H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Large areas of globally important tropical peatland in Southeast Asia are threatened by land clearance, degradation and fire, jeopardising their natural functions as reservoirs of biodiversity, carbon stores and hydrological buffers. Many development projects on tropical peatlands have failed becaus

  9. Modelling trends in tropical column ozone with the UKCA chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, Luke; Harris, Neil; Maycock, Amanda; Pyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Trends in tropical column ozone under a number of different emissions scenarios are explored with the UM-UKCA coupled chemistry climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation was run following the RCP6 scenario. Tropical averaged (10S-10N) total column ozone values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances, and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the total column is subdivided into three partial columns, extending from the surface to the tropopause, the tropopause to 30km, and 30km to 50km, significant differences to the total column trend are seen. Modelled tropospheric column values increase from 1960-2000 before remaining steady throughout the 21st Century. Lower stratospheric column values decrease rapidly from 1960-2000, remain steady until 2050 before slowly decreasing to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. Upper stratospheric values decrease from 1960-2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st Century, recovering to 1980s values by ~2020 and are significantly increased above the 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised model simulations with varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, we assess the physical processes driving the partial column response in the troposphere, lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere, and assess how these processes change under different emissions scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model for predicting tropical column ozone values based on greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance scenarios.

  10. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariño Arturo H

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity of a country; (b the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Methods Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Results Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most non-participant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. Conclusions The BIP Index could potentially help in (a identifying

  11. The Biodiversity Informatics Potential Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Biodiversity informatics is a relatively new discipline extending computer science in the context of biodiversity data, and its development to date has not been uniform throughout the world. Digitizing effort and capacity building are costly, and ways should be found to prioritize them rationally. The proposed 'Biodiversity Informatics Potential (BIP) Index' seeks to fulfill such a prioritization role. We propose that the potential for biodiversity informatics be assessed through three concepts: (a) the intrinsic biodiversity potential (the biological richness or ecological diversity) of a country; (b) the capacity of the country to generate biodiversity data records; and (c) the availability of technical infrastructure in a country for managing and publishing such records. Methods Broadly, the techniques used to construct the BIP Index were rank correlation, multiple regression analysis, principal components analysis and optimization by linear programming. We built the BIP Index by finding a parsimonious set of country-level human, economic and environmental variables that best predicted the availability of primary biodiversity data accessible through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) network, and constructing an optimized model with these variables. The model was then applied to all countries for which sufficient data existed, to obtain a score for each country. Countries were ranked according to that score. Results Many of the current GBIF participants ranked highly in the BIP Index, although some of them seemed not to have realized their biodiversity informatics potential. The BIP Index attributed low ranking to most non-participant countries; however, a few of them scored highly, suggesting that these would be high-return new participants if encouraged to contribute towards the GBIF mission of free and open access to biodiversity data. Conclusions The BIP Index could potentially help in (a) identifying countries most likely to

  12. Biodiversity optimal sampling: an algorithmic solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity sampling is a very serious task. When biodiversity sampling is not representative of the biodiversity spatial pattern due to few data or uncorrected sampling point locations, successive analyses, models and simulations are inevitably biased. In this work, I propose a new solution to the problem of biodiversity sampling. The proposed approach is proficient for habitats, plant and animal species, in addition it is able to answer the two pivotal questions of biodiversity sampling: 1 how many sampling points and 2 where are the sampling points.

  13. Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Zhou, Shudong; Burkhard, Benjamin; Müller, Felix

    2014-08-15

    One focus of ecosystem service research is the connection between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being as well as the socioeconomic influences on them. Despite existing investigations, exact impacts from the human system on the dynamics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being are still uncertain because of the insufficiency of the respective quantitative analyses. Our research aims are discerning the socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being and demonstrating mutual impacts between these items. We propose a DPSIR framework coupling ecological integrity, ecosystem services as well as human well-being and suggest DPSIR indicators for the case study area Jiangsu, China. Based on available statistical and surveying data, we revealed the factors significantly impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the research area through factor analysis and correlation analysis, using the 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu as samples. The results show that urbanization and industrialization in the urban areas have predominant positive influences on regional biodiversity, agricultural productivity and tourism services as well as rural residents' living standards. Additionally, the knowledge, technology and finance inputs for agriculture also have generally positive impacts on these system components. Concerning regional carbon storage, non-cropland vegetation cover obviously plays a significant positive role. Contrarily, the expansion of farming land and the increase of total food production are two important negative influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem's food provisioning service capacity, regional tourism income and the well-being of the rural population. Our study provides a promising approach based on the DPSIR model to quantitatively capture the socioeconomic influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being for human-environmental systems

  14. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia P G

    2015-10-01

    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation.

  15. Excitation of equatorial Kelvin and Yanai waves by tropical cyclones in an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Sriver

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs actively contribute to the dynamics of Earth's coupled climate system. They influence oceanic mixing rates, upper-ocean heat content, and air–sea fluxes, with implications for atmosphere and ocean dynamics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using an ocean general circulation model with modified surface wind forcing, we explore how TC winds can excite equatorial ocean waves in the tropical Pacific. We highlight a situation where three successive TCs in the western North Pacific region, corresponding to events in 2003, excite a combination of Kelvin and Yanai waves in the equatorial Pacific. The resultant thermocline adjustment significantly modifies the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Pacific and leads to eastward zonal heat transport. Observations of upper-ocean temperature by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO buoy array and sea-level height anomalies using altimetry reveal wave passage during the same time period with similar properties to the modeled wave, although our idealized model methodology disallows precise identification of the TC forcing with the observed waves. Results indicate that direct oceanographic forcing by TCs may be important for understanding the spectrum of equatorial ocean waves, thus remotely influencing tropical mixing and surface energy budgets. Because equatorial Kelvin waves are closely linked to interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, these findings also suggest TC wind forcing may influence the timing and amplitude of El Niño events.

  16. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a high global resolution (N216, ~0.83° × ~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  17. Excitation of equatorial Kelvin and Yanai waves by tropical cyclones in an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Sriver

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs actively contribute to the dynamics of Earth's coupled climate system. They influence oceanic mixing rates, upper-ocean heat content, and air-sea fluxes, with implications for atmosphere and ocean dynamics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using an ocean general circulation model with modified surface wind forcing, we explore how TC winds can excite equatorial ocean waves in the tropical Pacific. We highlight a situation where three successive TCs in the western North Pacific region, corresponding to events in 2003, excite a combination of Kelvin and Yanai waves in the equatorial Pacific. The resultant thermocline adjustment significantly modifies the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Pacific and leads to eastward zonal heat transport. Observations of upper-ocean temperature by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO buoy array and sea-level height anomalies using altimetry reveal wave passage during the same time period with similar properties to the modeled wave, although our idealized model methodology disallows precise identification of the TC forcing with the observed waves. Results indicate that direct oceanographic forcing by TCs may be important for understanding the spectrum of equatorial ocean waves, thus remotely influencing tropical mixing and surface energy budgets. Because equatorial Kelvin waves are closely linked to interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, these findings also suggest TC wind forcing may influence the timing and amplitude of El Niño events.

  18. Identifying priority areas for conservation and management in diverse tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Mokany

    Full Text Available The high concentration of the world's species in tropical forests endows these systems with particular importance for retaining global biodiversity, yet it also presents significant challenges for ecology and conservation science. The vast number of rare and yet to be discovered species restricts the applicability of species-level modelling for tropical forests, while the capacity of community classification approaches to identify priorities for conservation and management is also limited. Here we assessed the degree to which macroecological modelling can overcome shortfalls in our knowledge of biodiversity in tropical forests and help identify priority areas for their conservation and management. We used 527 plant community survey plots in the Australian Wet Tropics to generate models and predictions of species richness, compositional dissimilarity, and community composition for all the 4,313 vascular plant species recorded across the region (>1.3 million communities (grid cells. We then applied these predictions to identify areas of tropical forest likely to contain the greatest concentration of species, rare species, endemic species and primitive angiosperm families. Synthesising these alternative attributes of diversity into a single index of conservation value, we identified two areas within the Australian wet tropics that should be a high priority for future conservation actions: the Atherton Tablelands and Daintree rainforest. Our findings demonstrate the value of macroecological modelling in identifying priority areas for conservation and management actions within highly diverse systems, such as tropical forests.

  19. Identifying priority areas for conservation and management in diverse tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokany, Karel; Westcott, David A; Prasad, Soumya; Ford, Andrew J; Metcalfe, Daniel J

    2014-01-01

    The high concentration of the world's species in tropical forests endows these systems with particular importance for retaining global biodiversity, yet it also presents significant challenges for ecology and conservation science. The vast number of rare and yet to be discovered species restricts the applicability of species-level modelling for tropical forests, while the capacity of community classification approaches to identify priorities for conservation and management is also limited. Here we assessed the degree to which macroecological modelling can overcome shortfalls in our knowledge of biodiversity in tropical forests and help identify priority areas for their conservation and management. We used 527 plant community survey plots in the Australian Wet Tropics to generate models and predictions of species richness, compositional dissimilarity, and community composition for all the 4,313 vascular plant species recorded across the region (>1.3 million communities (grid cells)). We then applied these predictions to identify areas of tropical forest likely to contain the greatest concentration of species, rare species, endemic species and primitive angiosperm families. Synthesising these alternative attributes of diversity into a single index of conservation value, we identified two areas within the Australian wet tropics that should be a high priority for future conservation actions: the Atherton Tablelands and Daintree rainforest. Our findings demonstrate the value of macroecological modelling in identifying priority areas for conservation and management actions within highly diverse systems, such as tropical forests.

  20. Urban biodiversity: patterns and mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faeth, Stanley H; Bang, Christofer; Saari, Susanna

    2011-03-01

    The patterns of biodiversity changes in cities are now fairly well established, although diversity changes in temperate cities are much better studied than cities in other climate zones. Generally, plant species richness often increases in cities due to importation of exotic species, whereas animal species richness declines. Abundances of some groups, especially birds and arthropods, often increase in urban areas despite declines in species richness. Although several models have been proposed for biodiversity change, the processes underlying the patterns of biodiversity in cities are poorly understood. We argue that humans directly control plants but relatively few animals and microbes-the remaining biological community is determined by this plant "template" upon which natural ecological and evolutionary processes act. As a result, conserving or reconstructing natural habitats defined by vegetation within urban areas is no guarantee that other components of the biological community will follow suit. Understanding the human-controlled and natural processes that alter biodiversity is essential for conserving urban biodiversity. This urban biodiversity will comprise a growing fraction of the world's repository of biodiversity in the future.

  1. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  2. Past Human Disturbance Effects upon Biodiversity are Greatest in the Canopy; A Case Study on Rainforest Butterflies: e0150520

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Andrew Whitworth; Jaime Villacampa; Alice Brown; Ruthmery Pillco Huarcaya; Roger Downie; Ross MacLeod

    2016-01-01

      A key part of tropical forest spatial complexity is the vertical stratification of biodiversity, with widely differing communities found in higher rainforest strata compared to terrestrial levels...

  3. Multi-model ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclogenesis using TIGGE model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati; Pal, P. K.

    2016-10-01

    An extended range tropical cyclogenesis forecast model has been developed using the forecasts of global models available from TIGGE portal. A scheme has been developed to detect the signatures of cyclogenesis in the global model forecast fields [i.e., the mean sea level pressure and surface winds (10 m horizontal winds)]. For this, a wind matching index was determined between the synthetic cyclonic wind fields and the forecast wind fields. The thresholds of 0.4 for wind matching index and 1005 hpa for pressure were determined to detect the cyclonic systems. These detected cyclonic systems in the study region are classified into different cyclone categories based on their intensity (maximum wind speed). The forecasts of up to 15 days from three global models viz., ECMWF, NCEP and UKMO have been used to predict cyclogenesis based on multi-model ensemble approach. The occurrence of cyclonic events of different categories in all the forecast steps in the grided region (10 × 10 km2) was used to estimate the probability of the formation of cyclogenesis. The probability of cyclogenesis was estimated by computing the grid score using the wind matching index by each model and at each forecast step and convolving it with Gaussian filter. The proposed method is used to predict the cyclogenesis of five named tropical cyclones formed during the year 2013 in the north Indian Ocean. The 6-8 days advance cyclogenesis of theses systems were predicted using the above approach. The mean lead prediction time for the cyclogenesis event of the proposed model has been found as 7 days.

  4. Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

    2015-01-01

    Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability.

  5. Hollow rhodoliths increase Svalbard's shelf biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teichert, Sebastian

    2014-11-01

    Rhodoliths are coralline red algal assemblages that commonly occur in marine habitats from the tropics to polar latitudes. They form rigid structures of high-magnesium calcite and have a good fossil record. Here I show that rhodoliths are ecosystem engineers in a high Arctic environment that increase local biodiversity by providing habitat. Gouged by boring mussels, originally solid rhodoliths become hollow ecospheres intensely colonised by benthic organisms. In the examined shelf areas, biodiversity in rhodolith-bearing habitats is significantly greater than in habitats without rhodoliths and hollow rhodoliths yield a greater biodiversity than solid ones. This biodiversity, however, is threatened because hollow rhodoliths take a long time to form and are susceptible to global change and anthropogenic impacts such as trawl net fisheries that can destroy hollow rhodoliths. Rhodoliths and other forms of coralline red algae play a key role in a plurality of environments and need improved management and protection plans.

  6. MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF THREE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS OF MACROALGAE IN TROPICAL SEAGRASS HABITATS. (R828677C004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A model of three functional groups of macroalgae, drift algae, rhizophytic calcareous algae, and seagrass epiphytes, was developed to complement an existing seagrass production model for tropical habitats dominated by Thalassia testudinum (Turtle-grass). The current modeling e...

  7. A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

    2013-09-15

    In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required.

  8. Aboveground Biomass Modeling from Field and LiDAR Data in Brazilian Amazon Tropical Rain Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, C. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Vierling, L. A.; Keller, M. M.; Klauberg Silva, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forests are an important component of global carbon stocks, but tropical forest responses to climate change are not sufficiently studied or understood. Among remote sensing technologies, airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) may be best suited for quantifying tropical forest carbon stocks. Our objective was to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) using airborne LiDAR and field plot data in Brazilian tropical rain forest. Forest attributes such as tree density, diameter at breast height, and heights were measured at a combination of square plots and linear transects (n=82) distributed across six different geographic zones in the Amazon. Using previously published allometric equations, tree AGB was computed and then summed to calculate total AGB at each sample plot. LiDAR-derived canopy structure metrics were also computed at each sample plot, and random forest regression modelling was applied to predict AGB from selected LiDAR metrics. The LiDAR-derived AGB model was assessed using the random forest explained variation, adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. R²), root mean square error (RMSE, both absolute and relative) and BIAS (both absolute and relative). Our findings showed that the 99th percentile of height and height skewness were the best LiDAR metrics for AGB prediction. The AGB model using these two best predictors explained 59.59% of AGB variation, with an Adj. R² of 0.92, RMSE of 33.37 Mg/ha (20.28%), and bias of -0.69 (-0.42%). This study showed that LiDAR canopy structure metrics can be used to predict AGC stocks in Tropical Forest with acceptable precision and accuracy. Therefore, we conclude that there is good potential to monitor carbon sequestration in Brazilian Tropical Rain Forest using airborne LiDAR data, large field plots, and the random forest algorithm.

  9. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P.; Collier, Catherine J.; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X.; Langlois, Lucas; O’Brien, Katherine R.

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  10. Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

  11. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B [Institute of Advanced Technology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Mansor, Shattri B, E-mail: sahragard@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  12. Tropical Peatland water management modelling of the Air Hitam Laut catchment in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wösten, H.; Hooijer, A.; Siderius, C.; Dira Satriadi Rais,; Aswandi Idris,; Rieley, J.

    2006-01-01

    Human induced land use change and associated fire alter profoundly the hydrology of tropical peatlands and thus affect the functioning of entire river catchments. The hydrological model SIMGRO was used to calculate the effects of drainage on peat water levels, peat surface morphology and river flows

  13. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of predicti

  14. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  15. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  16. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  17. The Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deppenmeier, Anna Lena; Haarsma, R.J.; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2016-01-01

    Coupled state-of-the-art general circulation models still perform relatively poorly in simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) climate. To investigate whether lack of air–sea interaction might be responsible for their biases, we investigate the Bjerknes feedback (BF) in the TA, the driver of the domina

  18. Climate Change Projection with Reduced Model Systematic Error over Tropic Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenlyside, Noel; Shen, Mao-Lin; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

    2014-05-01

    The tropical Pacific is considered as a major driver of the global climate system. However, realistic representation of the equatorial Pacific remains a challenge for state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs). For example, the multi-model ensemble mean of the CMIP5 historical simulation exhibits large biases of sea surface temperature. Here we construct an interactive model ensemble (SUMO) by coupling two atmospheric GCMs (AGCM) with one ocean GCM (OGCM). Through optimal coupling weights, synchronization of the atmospheric models over tropical Pacific is enhanced and the dynamic and thermodynamic feedback over Pacific of the GCM become realistic. A set of climate change projections is performed with SUMO and results will be contrasted with conventional multi-model scenario simulations and a standard flux corrected model version to identify main differences.

  19. Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, Gabriele; Luitel, Beda; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Ghosh, Joyee

    2016-09-01

    North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs. These models use only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational records because they reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of TCs in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective forecasts of SSTs by six experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are used as covariates. The retrospective forecasts are performed over the period 1982-2015. The skill of these statistical-dynamical models is quantified for different quantities (basin-wide number of tropical storms and hurricanes, power dissipation index and accumulated cyclone energy) for forecasts initialized as early as November of the year prior to the season to forecast. The results of this work show that it is possible to obtain skillful retrospective forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity for the 2016 season are provided.

  20. Chemistry-transport modeling of the satellite observed distribution of tropical troposheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Peters

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC from the NIMBUS--7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS to TTOC calculated by achemistry-transport model (CTM. An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20% discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite overestimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOx abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOx emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies

  1. Diversity, Biodiversity, Conservation, and Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao Carlos Marques

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of diversity and biodiversity are analysed regarding their historical emergence, and their intrinsic meaning and differences are discussed. Through a brief synopsis, difficulties usually experienced by statisticians in capturing the dynamics of diversity are analysed and main problems identified. The shift from diversity to the more holistic biodiversity as a working concept is appraised in terms of the novelty involved. Through a number of examples, the way the two concepts capture natural cyclic changes is analysed, and their reciprocal and complementary relations are approached theoretically. The way diversity could develop from the stores of biodiversity as its active expression through selective and evolutionary processes is described. Through the use of a very simple dynamic model, the concepts of diversity and biodiversity are analysed in extremely opposite hypothetical scenarios. Comparisons with natural situations are made and the theoretical implications from the conservation point of view are discussed. These support the opinion that conservation undertaken in restricted and protected areas is not self-sustainable, needing permanent external intervention to regulate internal processes, and in the long run will most probably lead in the direction of obsolescence and extinction. Finally, the relations between diversity, biodiversity, and sustainability are approached. The vagueness of the sustainability concept is discussed. Preservation of biodiversity is then defended as one of the best available indicators to assist us in fixing boundaries which may help to provide a more precise definition of sustainability.

  2. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  3. Lacunarity as a texture measure for a tropical forest landscape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su, Haiping; Krummel, J.

    1996-01-01

    Fragmentation and loss of tropical forest cover alters terrestrial plant and animal population dynamics, reduces biodiversity and carbon storage capacity, and, as a global phenomenon could affect regional and global climate patterns. Lacunarity as a texture measure can offer a simple solution to characterize the texture of tropical forest landscape and determine spatial patterns associated with ecological processes. Lacunarity quantifies the deviation from translational invariance by describing the distribution of gaps within a binary image at multiple scales. As lacunarity increases, the spatial arrangement of tropical forest gaps will also increase. In this study, we used the Spatial Modeler in Imagine as a graphic programming tool to calculate lacunarity indices for a tropical forest landscape in Southern Mexico and Northern Guatemala. Lacunarity indices were derived from classified Landsat MSS images acquired in 1974 and 1984. Random-generated binary images were also used to derive lacunarity indices and compared with the lacunarity of forest patterns derived from the classified MSS images. Tropical forest area declined about 17%, with most of the forest areas converted into pasture/grassland for grazing. During this period, lacunarity increased about 25%. Results of this study suggest that tropical forest fragmentation could be quantified with lacunarity measures. The study also demonstrated that the Spatial Modeler can be useful as a programming tool to quantify spatial patterns of tropical forest landscape by using remotely sensed data.

  4. Agent-based modeling for the landuse change of hunter-gather societies and the impacts on biodiversity in Guyana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamura, T.; Fragoso, J.; Lambin, E.

    2012-12-01

    The interactions with animals are vital to the Amerindian, indigenous people, of Rupunini savannah-forest in Guyana. Their connections extend from basic energy and protein resource to spiritual bonding through "paring" to a certain animal in the forest. We collected extensive dataset of 23 indigenous communities for 3.5 years, consisting 9900 individuals from 1307 households, as well as animal observation data in 8 transects per communities (47,000 data entries). In this presentation, our research interest is to model the driver of land use change of the indigenous communities and its impacts on the ecosystem in the Rupunini area under global change. Overarching question we would like to answer with this program is to find how and why "tipping-point" from hunting gathering society to the agricultural society occurs in the future. Secondary question is what is the implication of the change to agricultural society in terms of biodiversity and carbon stock in the area, and eventually the well-being of Rupunini people. To answer the questions regarding the society shift in agriculture activities, we built as simulation with Agent-Based Modeling (Multi Agents Simulation). We developed this simulation by using Netlogo, the programming environment specialized for spatially explicit agent-based modeling (ABM). This simulation consists of four different process in the Rupunini landscape; forest succession, animal population growth, hunting of animals, and land clearing for agriculture. All of these processes are carried out by a set of computational unit, called "agents". In this program, there are four types of agents - patches, villages, households, and animals. Here, we describe the impacts of hunting on the biodiversity based on actual demographic data from one village named Crush Water. Animal population within the hunting territory of the village stabilized but Agouti/Paca dominates the landscape with little population of armadillos and peccaries. White-tailed deers

  5. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  6. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  7. Multiple Equilibria in a Single-Column Model of the Tropical Atmosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Sobel, Adam H; Bacmeister, Julio T

    2007-01-01

    A single-column model run under the weak temperature gradient approximation, a parameterization of large-scale dynamics appropriate for the tropical atmosphere, is shown to have multiple stable equilibria. Under conditions permitting persistent deep convection, the model has a statistically steady state in which such convection occurs, as well as an extremely dry state in which convection does not occur. Which state is reached depends on the initial moisture profile.

  8. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, J.; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  9. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  10. Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert J.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

  11. Models of oceanic island biogeography: changing perspectives on biodiversity dynamics in archipelagoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence R Heaney

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Models of biogeographic processes can both enhance and inhibit our ability to ask questions that guide our understanding of patterns and processes. The two ‘traditional’ models of island biogeography, the Equilibrium Model and the Vicariance Model, raise important and insightful questions about relevant processes, but both fail to raise many crucial questions. An example involving the non-volant mammals of the Philippine archipelago shows that both models highlight some, but not all, relevant patterns and processes. The more recently proposed General Dynamic Model successfully combines many of the positive aspects of the two traditional models, but leaves some important questions unasked. We pose a number of questions here that may help guide further development of models of island biogeography.

  12. Model Simulation of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Birgit; Segschneider, Joachim; Xu, Xu; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    The intensification/expansion of the tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), as observed during the last decades, is usually assigned to anthropogenic climate change. However, natural variability may also affect OMZ variations. To assess the amplitude of natural (millennial-scale) variability in the oxygen minimum zone in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP), a global coupled climate-ocean biogeochemical model has been applied to the mid-Holocene (approx. 6 kyrs BP). We find that during the mid-Holocene, the ETSP OMZ may have been better ventilated than today, which is entirely due to ocean circulation effects in the model. The enhanced ventilation is overriding the effect of increased biological production which in large parts of the equatorial Pacific, is driving oxygen towards lower values. The model result is in qualitative agreement with proxy data.

  13. Model Evidence for Interdecadal Pathway Changes in the Subtropics and Tropics of the South Pacific Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong-Hua; WANG Zhanggui

    2013-01-01

    Numerical simulations using a version of the GFDL/NOAA Modular Ocean Model (MOM 3) are analyzed to demonstrate interdecadal pathway changes from the subtropics to the tropics in the South Pacific Ocean.After the 1976-77 climate shift,the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific underwent significant changes,characterized by a slowing down in its circulation and a southward displacement of its center by about 5°-10° latitude on the western side.The associated circulation altered its flow path in the northwestern part of the subtropical gyre,changing from a direct pathway connecting the subtropics to the tropics before the shift to a more zonal one after.This effectively prevented some subtropical waters from directly entering into the western equatorial Pacific.Since waters transported onto the equator around the subtropical gyre are saline and warm,such changes in the direct pathway and the associated reduction in equatorward exchange from the subtropics to the tropics affected water mass properties downstream in the western equatorial Pacific,causing persisted freshening and cooling of subsurface water as observed after the late 1970s.Previously,changes in gyre strength and advection of temperature anomalies have been invoked as mechanisms for linking the subtropics and tropics on interdecadal time scales.Here we present an additional hypothesis in which geographic shifts in the gyre structure and location (a pathway change) could play a similar role.

  14. Dynamical system analysis of a low-order tropical cyclone model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Schönemann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone dynamics is investigated by means of a conceptual box model. The tropical cyclone (TC is divided into three regions, the eye, eyewall and ambient region. The model forms a low-order dynamical system of three ordinary differential equations. These are based on entropy budget equations comprising processes of surface enthalpy transfer, entropy advection, convection and radiative cooling. For tropical ocean parameter settings, the system possesses four non-trivial steady state solutions when the sea surface temperature (SST is above a critical value. Two steady states are unstable while the two remaining states are stable. Bifurcation diagrams provide an explanation why only finite-amplitude perturbations above a critical SST can transform into TCs. Besides SST, relative humidity of the ambient region forms an important model parameter. The surfaces that describe equilibria as a function of SST and relative humidity reveal a cusp-catastrophe where the two non-trivial equilibria split into four. Within the model regime of four equilibria, cyclogenesis becomes very unlikely due to the repelling and attracting effects of the two additional equilibria. The results are in qualitative agreement with observations and evince the relevance of the simple model approach to the dynamics of TC formation and its maximum potential intensity.

  15. A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

  16. Biodiversity Is Life

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Greater numbers of species are disappearing from the planet. Biodiversity protection has become an urgent task for all of us.Given this,the UN declared 2010 the International Year of Biodiversity. Chinese conservationists call for increased awareness of the importance of saving the biodiversity.The following are the perspectives of some Chinese scientists on the significance of,and measures for,biodiversity protection:

  17. Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

    2017-04-01

    The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

  18. Biodiversity and globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Heal, Geoffrey

    2002-01-01

    Reduction of the earth’s biodiversity as a result of human activities is a matter of great concern to prominent scientists. What are the economic aspects of this loss? In economic terms, what is biodiversity and why might it matter? And is the loss of biodiversity in any way connected with globalization of the economy?

  19. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  20. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST. Tropical response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, V. [Universite' de Provence, UFR des sciences geographiques et de l' amenagement, Aix-en-Provence (France); Navarra, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Ward, M. N. [University of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman OK (United States); Foland, C. K. [Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom); Friederichs, P. [Meteorologisches Institute des Universitaet Bonn, Bonn (Germany); Maynard, K.; Polcher, J. [Paris Universite' Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France). Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris

    2001-08-01

    The ECHAM 3.2 (T21), ECHAM (T30) and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes x 72 latitudes) atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forces with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The large-scale tropical inter-annual variability is analysed to give a picture of a skill of each model and of some sort of combination of the three models. To analyse the similarity of model response averaged over the same key regions, several widely-used indices are calculated: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), large-scale wind shear indices of the boreal summer monsoon in Asia and West Africa and rainfall indices for NE Brazil, Sahel and India. Even for the indices where internal noise is large, some years are consistent amongst all the runs, suggesting inter-annual variability of the strength of SST forcing. Averaging the ensemble mean of the three models (the super-ensemble mean) yields improved skill. When each run is weighted according to its skill, taking three runs from different models instead of three runs of the same model improves the mean skill. There is also some indication that one run of a given model could be better than another, suggesting that persistent anomalies could change its sensitivity to SST. The index approach lacks flexibility to assess whether a model's response to SST has been geographically displaced. It can focus on the first mode in the global tropics, found through singular value decomposition analysis, which is clearly related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all seasons. The Observed-Model and Model-Model analyses lead to almost the same patterns, suggesting that the dominant pattern of model response is also the most skilful mode. Seasonal modulation of both skill and spatial patterns (both model and observed) clearly exists with highest skill

  1. Tropical Peat Swamp Management Options: A Case Study Using System Dynamic in Southern Aceh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aswandi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical peat forest ecosystems have multiple benefits as regulating hydrological system, carbon storage, timber and non-timber products, and protecting the biodiversity. Lack of understanding of these functions, short-term economic benefits is more preferable despite reducing its ecological benefits. This study proposed a system dynamics model of tropical peat forest ecosystem in determining its optimum management for extractive utilizations (timber and non-timber forest products, environmental services, and biodiversity. A dynamics model was used to describe changes in peatland and forest cover, biomass accumulation and carbon storage, and total economic value of tropical peat forest ecosystem in Trumon and Singkil, Southern Aceh. The projection showed that peat forest ecosystem benefits would decline in the long term if degradations continue at the same rate over last decade. Efforts to change the primary peat forest to plantation would reduce the total economic value of ecosystem and biodiversity values at level -19.63% and -26.28% from current conditions. Carbon emissions were increased at 117.32 ton CO2 eq ha-1 year-1, higher than average of carbon losses from peatland oxidation. Preserving 50% of forest vegetation on moderate depth and protection very deep peatlands would reduce emission -6.96% to -35.06% and increase forest carbon storage at significant rate +15.06% to +63.32%, respectively. These mitigation schemes would improve the biodiversity and hydrological function. Forest rehabilitation with agroforestry practices will enhance carbon uptake, especially on degraded lands.

  2. Observing and Modelling the HighWater Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaoli; Gharineiat, Zahra; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the capability of observing tropical cyclones using satellite radar altimetry. Two representative cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Larry (March 2006) in the northeast Australian coastal area are selected based also on available tide gauge sea level measurements. It is shown...... levels predicted by the model taken into account of both altimetry and tide-gauge data agree well with those observed at Townsville during cyclone Larry....

  3. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    aghomotsegin

    2014-02-26

    Feb 26, 2014 ... linear relationship between herbs diversity dynamics and ... Key words: Model, herbs species diversity, disturbance gradient, significantly, the Yellow River. ..... generalized hierarchical framework of plant functional traits. Afr. J.

  4. Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in WRF model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fonseca

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts–Miller–Janjić (BMJ, produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denominated "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed and in tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation, as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 dataset, than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

  5. Digital Geogames to Foster Local Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Sonja; Schaal, Steffen; Lude, Armin

    2015-01-01

    The valuing of biodiversity is considered to be a first step towards its conservation. Therefore, the aim of the BioDiv2Go project is to combine sensuous experiences discovering biodiversity with mobile technology and a game-based learning approach. Following the competence model for environmental education (Roczen et al, 2014), Geogames (location…

  6. Digital Geogames to Foster Local Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Sonja; Schaal, Steffen; Lude, Armin

    2015-01-01

    The valuing of biodiversity is considered to be a first step towards its conservation. Therefore, the aim of the BioDiv2Go project is to combine sensuous experiences discovering biodiversity with mobile technology and a game-based learning approach. Following the competence model for environmental education (Roczen et al, 2014), Geogames (location…

  7. Modeling a tropical rainforest river basin in the Philippines using the distributed hydrologic model MOBIDIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, A. E.

    2013-12-01

    The MOdello Bilancio Idrologico DIstributo e Continuo (MOBIDIC), a distributed physics-based hydrologic model that solves both mass and energy balance, was used to investigate a 103 sq. km. mountainous river basin in southern Philippines. The basin is covered by tropical rain forest (TRF) with small patches of upland crop cultivation, and underlain by thin clayey soil over porous volcanic tuff geology. Aside from being the first application of MOBIDIC on a TRF basin, this paper also demonstrates how a sophisticated hydrologic model can be developed using freely- and globally-available remotely-sensed data, plus only minimal field observations and streamflow measurements. Based on simulation of water years 2009-2012, the average annual rainfall of 3,877 mm was partitioned into 22% quick flow, 38% base flow, 37% evapotranspiration, and 3% recharge to the regional groundwater system. The vegetation intercepts about 12% of the total rainfall, and the soil layer is almost always at or above field capacity. Simulations of some scenarios indicate that climate change will have greater impact than loss of vegetative cover, and the impact is more signicant on the low flow than the peak flow regime. Hopefully, these insights will be of use to local decision makers as they improve their systems for water supply, watershed management, and climate change impact mitigation. Maps of the Tamugan River Basin showing the location, topography, river network and hydromet stations Effects of loss of vegetation

  8. How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Sinclair

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species' distributions under future climates to inform management strategies. As government scientists with a responsibility to communicate the best available science to our policy colleagues, we question whether current modeling approaches and outputs are practically useful. Here, we synthesize conceptual problems with species distribution models (SDMs associated with interspecific interactions, dispersal, ecological equilibria and time lags, evolution, and the sampling of niche space. Although projected SDMs have undoubtedly been critical in alerting us to the magnitude of climate change impacts, we conclude that until they offer insights that are more precise than what we can derive from basic ecological theory, we question their utility in deciding how to allocate scarce funds to large-scale conservation projects.

  9. Accounting for the influence of vegetation and landscape improves model transferability in a tropical savannah region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2016-10-01

    Understanding which catchment characteristics dominate hydrologic response and how to take them into account remains a challenge in hydrological modeling, particularly in ungauged basins. This is even more so in nontemperate and nonhumid catchments, where—due to the combination of seasonality and the occurrence of dry spells—threshold processes are more prominent in rainfall runoff behavior. An example is the tropical savannah, the second largest climatic zone, characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons and high evaporative demand. In this study, we investigated the importance of landscape variability on the spatial variability of stream flow in tropical savannah basins. We applied a stepwise modeling approach to 23 subcatchments of the Upper Ping River in Thailand, where gradually more information on landscape was incorporated. The benchmark is represented by a classical lumped model (FLEXL), which does not account for spatial variability. We then tested the effect of accounting for vegetation information within the lumped model (FLEXLM), and subsequently two semidistributed models: one accounting for the spatial variability of topography-based landscape features alone (FLEXT), and another accounting for both topographic features and vegetation (FLEXTM). In cross validation, each model was calibrated on one catchment, and then transferred with its fitted parameters to the remaining catchments. We found that when transferring model parameters in space, the semidistributed models accounting for vegetation and topographic heterogeneity clearly outperformed the lumped model. This suggests that landscape controls a considerable part of the hydrological function and explicit consideration of its heterogeneity can be highly beneficial for prediction in ungauged basins in tropical savannah.

  10. How will oil palm expansion affect biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzherbert, Emily B; Struebig, Matthew J; Morel, Alexandra; Danielsen, Finn; Brühl, Carsten A; Donald, Paul F; Phalan, Ben

    2008-10-01

    Oil palm is one of the world's most rapidly increasing crops. We assess its contribution to tropical deforestation and review its biodiversity value. Oil palm has replaced large areas of forest in Southeast Asia, but land-cover change statistics alone do not allow an assessment of where it has driven forest clearance and where it has simply followed it. Oil palm plantations support much fewer species than do forests and often also fewer than other tree crops. Further negative impacts include habitat fragmentation and pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions. With rising demand for vegetable oils and biofuels, and strong overlap between areas suitable for oil palm and those of most importance for biodiversity, substantial biodiversity losses will only be averted if future oil palm expansion is managed to avoid deforestation.

  11. Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Raia, Pasquale; Toivonen, Jaakko

    2015-12-01

    The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

  12. Habitat allocation to maximize biodiversity: a technical description of the HAMBO model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, R.A.; Rudrum, D.P.

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of spatial allocations of nature conservation, it is necessary that a benchmark allocation can be known that achieves the maximum ecological value at given costs. This calls for an optimisation model that takes into consideration the main ecological considerations,

  13. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-06-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term.

  14. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  15. Modeling tropical river runoff:A time dependent approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rashmi Nigam; Sudhir Nigam; Sushil K.Mittal

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrol-ogy. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoff of the perennial Kulfo River in south-ern Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.

  16. A Review Of Major Impact Factors Of Hostilities Influencing Biodiversity In The Eastern Ukraine (Modeled On Selected Animal Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasyliuk O. V.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We identified major factors (both direct and indirect, caused by the hostilities in Ukrainian ATO zone that adversely influence local biodiversity and environment. Damaged conservational territories (objects of nature conservation fund were assessed. One of the most severe factors, the fires were studied using data from Terra MODIS remote sensing, resulting in a model of localization and spatial configuration of fires on natural and agricultural territories in ATO zone during June-September 2014. In that period, 2901 ignitions were registered in ATO zone, exceeding the numbers for previous four years. It was determined that 81 % of all of the ignitions happened on natural steppe and forest areas, 19 % in settlements. Th e fires damaged 18 % of forest area, 23 % of the steppe area and 14 % of arable lands of ATO zone. For two snake species of Red book of Ukraine — eastern Elaphe dione and more widespread Hierophis caspius — it was shown that most of the animals and their biotopes in Luhansk and Donetsk Regions of Ukraine are under threat. Far example, 65–82 % of 108 finds of these Colubridae registered in the eastern Ukraine are located in the ATO zone and near to hostilities. GIS models also showed that more than 50 % of biotopes, suitable for these snakes, are in the ATO zone or near it. Based on world-wide experience and our own observations, we safely assume that the events of 2014 in the ATO territory can possibly cause far-reaching adverse consequences for natural landscapes, local flora and fauna, and the massive local disappearance of plant and animal populations.

  17. Seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests in a process-based global ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Weirdt, M.; Verbeeck, H.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Ciais, P.; Steppe, K.

    2012-09-01

    The influence of seasonal phenology on canopy photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests remains poorly understood, and its representation in global ecosystem models is highly simplified, typically with no seasonal variation of canopy leaf properties taken into account. Including seasonal variation in leaf age and photosynthetic capacity could improve the correspondence of global vegetation model outputs with the wet-dry season CO2 patterns measured at flux tower sites in these forests. We introduced a leaf litterfall dynamics scheme in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE based on seasonal variations in net primary production (NPP), resulting in higher leaf turnover in periods of high productivity. The modifications in the leaf litterfall scheme induce seasonal variation in leaf age distribution and photosynthetic capacity. We evaluated the results of the modification against seasonal patterns of three long-term in-situ leaf litterfall datasets of evergreen tropical forests in Panama, French Guiana and Brazil. In addition, we evaluated the impact of the model improvements on simulated latent heat (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) fluxes for the flux tower sites Guyaflux (French Guiana) and Tapajós (km 67, Brazil). The results show that the introduced seasonal leaf litterfall corresponds well with field inventory leaf litter data and times with its seasonality. Although the simulated litterfall improved substantially by the model modifications, the impact on the modelled fluxes remained limited. The seasonal pattern of GPP improved clearly for the Guyaflux site, but no significant improvement was obtained for the Tapajós site. The seasonal pattern of the modelled latent heat fluxes was hardly changed and remained consistent with the observed fluxes. We conclude that we introduced a realistic and generic litterfall dynamics scheme, but that other processes need to be improved in the model to achieve better simulations of GPP seasonal patterns

  18. Seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests in a process-based global ecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. De Weirdt

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The influence of seasonal phenology on canopy photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests remains poorly understood, and its representation in global ecosystem models is highly simplified, typically with no seasonal variation of canopy leaf properties taken into account. Including seasonal variation in leaf age and photosynthetic capacity could improve the correspondence of global vegetation model outputs with the wet–dry season CO2 patterns measured at flux tower sites in these forests. We introduced a leaf litterfall dynamics scheme in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE based on seasonal variations in net primary production (NPP, resulting in higher leaf turnover in periods of high productivity. The modifications in the leaf litterfall scheme induce seasonal variation in leaf age distribution and photosynthetic capacity. We evaluated the results of the modification against seasonal patterns of three long-term in-situ leaf litterfall datasets of evergreen tropical forests in Panama, French Guiana and Brazil. In addition, we evaluated the impact of the model improvements on simulated latent heat (LE and gross primary productivity (GPP fluxes for the flux tower sites Guyaflux (French Guiana and Tapajós (km 67, Brazil. The results show that the introduced seasonal leaf litterfall corresponds well with field inventory leaf litter data and times with its seasonality. Although the simulated litterfall improved substantially by the model modifications, the impact on the modelled fluxes remained limited. The seasonal pattern of GPP improved clearly for the Guyaflux site, but no significant improvement was obtained for the Tapajós site. The seasonal pattern of the modelled latent heat fluxes was hardly changed and remained consistent with the observed fluxes. We conclude that we introduced a realistic and generic litterfall dynamics scheme, but that other processes need to be improved in the model to achieve better

  19. Weak leaf photosynthesis and nutrient content relationships from tropical vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingues, T. F.; Ishida, F. Y.; Feldpaush, T.; Saiz, G.; Grace, J.; Meir, P.; Lloyd, J.

    2015-12-01

    Evergreen rain forests and savannas are the two major vegetations of tropical land ecosystems, in terms of land area, biomass, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles and rates of land use change. Mechanistically understanding ecosystem functioning on such ecosystems is still far from complete, but important for generation of future vegetation scenarios in response to global changes. Leaf photosynthetic rates is a key processes usually represented on land surface-atmosphere models, although data from tropical ecosystems is scarce, considering the high biodiversity they contain. As a shortcut, models usually recur to relationships between leaf nutrient concentration and photosynthetic rates. Such strategy is convenient, given the possibility of global datasets on leave nutrients derived from hyperspectral remote sensing data. Given the importance of Nitrogen on enzyme composition, this nutrient is usually used to infer photosynthetic capacity of leaves. Our experience, based on individual measurements on 1809 individual leaves from 428 species of trees and shrubs naturally occurring on tropical forests and savannas from South America, Africa and Australia, indicates that the relationship between leaf nitrogen and its assimilation capacity is weak. Therefore, leaf Nitrogen alone is a poor predictor of photosynthetic rates of tropical vegetation. Phosphorus concentrations from tropical soils are usually low and is often implied that this nutrient limits primary productivity of tropical vegetation. Still, phosphorus (or other nutrients) did not exerted large influence over photosynthetic capacity, although potassium influenced vegetation structure and function. Such results draw attention to the risks of applying universal nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships on biogeochemical models. Moreover, our data suggests that affiliation of plant species within phylogenetic hierarchy is an important aspect in understanding leaf trait variation. The lack of a strong single

  20. Limits to biodiversity cycles from a unified model of mass-extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feulner, Georg

    2011-04-01

    Episodes of species mass extinction dramatically affected the evolution of life on Earth, but their causes remain a source of debate. Even more controversy surrounds the hypothesis of periodicity in the fossil record, with conflicting views still being published in the scientific literature, often even based on the same state-of-the-art datasets. From an empirical point of view, limitations of the currently available data on extinctions and possible causes remain an important issue. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that a focus on single extinction causes and strong periodic forcings has strongly contributed to this controversy. Here I show that if there is a periodic extinction signal at all, it is much more likely to result from a combination of a comparatively weak periodic cause and various random factors. Tests of this unified model of mass extinctions on the available data show that the model is formally better than a model with random extinction causes only. However, the contribution of the periodic component is small compared to factors such as impacts or volcanic eruptions.

  1. On the interest of positive degree day models for mass balance modeling in the inner tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Maisincho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A positive degree-day (PDD model was tested on Antizana Glacier 15α (0.28 km2; 0°28' S, 78°09' W to assess to what extent this approach is suitable for studying glacier mass balance in the inner tropics. Cumulative positive temperatures were compared with field measurements of melting amount and with surface energy balance computations. A significant link was revealed when a distinction was made between the snow and ice comprising the glacier surface. Significant correlations allowed degree-day factors to be retrieved for snow, and clean and dirty ice. The relationship between melt amount and temperature was mainly explained by the role of net shortwave radiation in both melting and in the variations in the temperature of the surface layer. However, this relationship disappeared from June to October (Period 1, because high wind speeds and low humidity cause highly negative turbulent latent heat fluxes. However, this had little impact on the computed total amount of melting at the annual time scale because temperatures are low and melting is generally limited during Period 1. At the daily time scale, melting starts when daily temperature means are still negative, because around noon incoming shortwave radiation is very high, and compensates for energy losses when the air is cold. The PDD model was applied to the 2000–2008 period using meteorological inputs measured on the glacier foreland. Results were compared to the glacier-wide mass balances measured in the field and were good, even though the melting factor should be adapted to the glacier surface state and may vary with time. Finally, the model was forced with precipitation and temperature data from the remote Izobamba station and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, also giving good results and showing that temperature variations are homogenous at the regional scale, meaning glacier mass balances can be modelled over large areas.

  2. Eco-hydrological modeling in a tropical area of Vietnam using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hoang Khanh, Linh; Renchin, Tsolmon

    2016-04-01

    The tropical area of Vietnam is suffering from mismanagement of water and land resources which leads to rising floods, surface runoff and soil erosion. We used an eco-hydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in Aluoi district as a representative case study of Central Vietnam. In addition to water balance calculation we simulated the flooding behavior on a single severe event (16th October 2007) by SWAT model. The model was calibrated based on multi-objective functions for stream flow and actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Nevertheless, observed stream flow was predicted by a regionalization approach and Eta-data were derived from MODIS time-series. The results of calibration and validation of model were pretty good with a high Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.72 and 0.82 for river discharge and 0.77 and 0.79 for ETa, respectively. The monthly average of eight-year simulation (2006-2013) showed that the highest surface runoff occurred in October while the ratio of ETa /rainfall is the lowest, and the lowest surface runoff happened in February when the ratio of Eta /rainfall is the highest. The flooding behavior revealed that the peak flow was under predicted about 10 percent, roughly 1331 m3/s. However, the water depth was estimated approximately 7.5 m in the Main River. This water-level generated overflow of the river banks and led to inundation of land and endangered infrastructure and human life in downstream areas. Hence, best management practices (e.g. Terracing) are recommended to reduce surface runoff and flooding forces in Aluoi district of Vietnam.

  3. Forest fragmentation and selective logging have inconsistent effects on multiple animal-mediated ecosystem processes in a tropical forest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Schleuning

    Full Text Available Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes

  4. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  5. Using ecological null models to assess the potential for marine protected area networks to protect biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X; Auster, Peter J; Paddack, Michelle J

    2010-01-27

    Marine protected area (MPA) networks have been proposed as a principal method for conserving biological diversity, yet patterns of diversity may ultimately complicate or compromise the development of such networks. We show how a series of ecological null models can be applied to assemblage data across sites in order to identify non-random biological patterns likely to influence the effectiveness of MPA network design. We use fish census data from Caribbean fore-reefs as a test system and demonstrate that: 1) site assemblages were nested, such that species found on sites with relatively few species were subsets of those found on sites with relatively many species, 2) species co-occurred across sites more than expected by chance once species-habitat associations were accounted for, and 3) guilds were most evenly represented at the richest sites and richness among all guilds was correlated (i.e., species and trophic diversity were closely linked). These results suggest that the emerging Caribbean marine protected area network will likely be successful at protecting regional diversity even if planning is largely constrained by insular, inventory-based design efforts. By recasting ecological null models as tests of assemblage patterns likely to influence management action, we demonstrate how these classic tools of ecological theory can be brought to bear in applied conservation problems.

  6. Using ecological null models to assess the potential for marine protected area networks to protect biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brice X Semmens

    Full Text Available Marine protected area (MPA networks have been proposed as a principal method for conserving biological diversity, yet patterns of diversity may ultimately complicate or compromise the development of such networks. We show how a series of ecological null models can be applied to assemblage data across sites in order to identify non-random biological patterns likely to influence the effectiveness of MPA network design. We use fish census data from Caribbean fore-reefs as a test system and demonstrate that: 1 site assemblages were nested, such that species found on sites with relatively few species were subsets of those found on sites with relatively many species, 2 species co-occurred across sites more than expected by chance once species-habitat associations were accounted for, and 3 guilds were most evenly represented at the richest sites and richness among all guilds was correlated (i.e., species and trophic diversity were closely linked. These results suggest that the emerging Caribbean marine protected area network will likely be successful at protecting regional diversity even if planning is largely constrained by insular, inventory-based design efforts. By recasting ecological null models as tests of assemblage patterns likely to influence management action, we demonstrate how these classic tools of ecological theory can be brought to bear in applied conservation problems.

  7. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  8. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  9. Using Ecological Niche Modeling For Biodiversity Conservation Guidance In The Western Podillya (Ukraine: Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tytar V.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy niche modeling was employed as a tool to assess potential habitat suitability for 13 amphibian species and to map their potential distribution in the Western Podillya (Ukraine. The predictor variables used were of climate, topography and human impact (assessed by the Human Footprint. The “mean temperature of coldest quarter” and “isothermality” were two of the most important factors in predicting habitat suitability and distribution. Another profound contribution has been displayed by the Human Footprint, meaning that human infrastructure may benefit amphibians, a phenomenon that perhaps is much more widespread than thought. Areas have been distinguished that in the first place should be of interest to nature conservationists targeting amphibians (exemplified by Bombina variegata and a map summarizing species richness was produced.

  10. Maximizing Amazonia's Ecosystem Services: Juggling the potential for carbon storage, agricultural yield and biodiversity in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, C. S.; Foley, J. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Polasky, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon is not only an exceptionally biodiverse and carbon-rich tract of tropical forest, it is also a case study in land use change. Over the next forty years it will continue to experience pressure from an urbanizing and increasingly affluent populace: under a business-as-usual scenario, global cropland, pasture and biofuels systems will carry on expanding, while the Amazon's carbon storage potential will likely become another viable revenue source under REDD+. Balancing those competing land use pressures ought also take into account Amazonia's high - but heterogeneous - biodiversity. Knowing where Amazonia has opportunities to make efficient or optimal trade offs between carbon storage, agricultural production and biodiversity can allow policymakers to direct or influence LUC drivers. This analysis uses a spatially-explicit model that takes climate and management into account to quantify the potential agricultural yield of both the Amazon's most important agricultural commodities - sugar, soy and maize - as well as several that are going to come into increasing prominence, including palm oil. In addition, it maps the potential for carbon to be stored in forest biomass and relative species richness across Amazonia. We then compare carbon storage, agricultural yield and species richness and identify areas where efficient trade offs occur between food, carbon, and biodiversity - three critical ecosystem goods and services provided by the world's largest tropical forest.

  11. Business Meets Biodiversity Conference 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vollaard, B.; Man, M. de; Verweij, P.A.

    2012-01-01

    How can companies successfully integrate the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity into their business models? This was the central question at the international conference ‘Business Meets Biodiversity’ held in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on June 27th 2012. The organizing committee, co

  12. Business Meets Biodiversity Conference 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vollaard, B.; Man, M. de; Verweij, P.A.

    2012-01-01

    How can companies successfully integrate the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity into their business models? This was the central question at the international conference ‘Business Meets Biodiversity’ held in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on June 27th 2012. The organizing committee,

  13. Disease ecology, biodiversity, and the latitudinal gradient in income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonds, Matthew H; Dobson, Andrew P; Keenan, Donald C

    2012-01-01

    While most of the world is thought to be on long-term economic growth paths, more than one-sixth of the world is roughly as poor today as their ancestors were hundreds of years ago. The majority of the extremely poor live in the tropics. The latitudinal gradient in income is highly suggestive of underlying biophysical drivers, of which disease conditions are an especially salient example. However, conclusions have been confounded by the simultaneous causality between income and disease, in addition to potentially spurious relationships. We use a simultaneous equations model to estimate the relative effects of vector-borne and parasitic diseases (VBPDs) and income on each other, controlling for other factors. Our statistical model indicates that VBPDs have systematically affected economic development, evident in contemporary levels of per capita income. The burden of VBDPs is, in turn, determined by underlying ecological conditions. In particular, the model predicts it to rise as biodiversity falls. Through these positive effects on human health, the model thus identifies measurable economic benefits of biodiversity.

  14. Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtsson, L.; Hodges, K. I.; Esch, M.

    2007-08-01

    Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the three-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortices to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with re-analyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr Re-analysis (ERA40) and Japanese 25 yr re-analysis (JRA25)] and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the centre over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The overestimation in the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over

  15. Developing Mechanism of Rubber-tea-chicken Agro-forestry Model in Tropical Area of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meng Qingyan; Miao Zewei; Wang Zhaoqian

    2012-01-01

    As a typical tropical agro-forestry ecosystem in Wenchang, Hainan Province, China, rational mechanisms of the rubber-tea-chicken eco-agricultural model were studied with the Solow technological level index, stability indicator, harmonizing coefficient, grey corretation coefficient and production dominance. This study focused on rational hierarchical structure, the limiting factors and optimal strategies of the model development based on model structure, resource conditions and external market demands. Results showed that rational mechanism of the rubber-tea-chicken ecosystem model mainly included technological contributions, leverage function of dominance component (livestock husbandry), stability of the model structure and harmony of its components, the model dominant product's market demand and government's supporting policies. The contributions of fund, technology, information and talent resources played an important role in improving sustainability and productivity of the agro-forestry model.

  16. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Using spatial techniques to determine the threat of land-use change is a useful tool in mitigating against potential biodiversity losses. We investigate the potential suitability and likely impacts of energy crops not currently grown in South Africa...

  17. A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection: A 2D Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shou-Ting; Ping, Fan; Li, Xiao-Fan; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2004-01-01

    Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

  18. The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reu

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current models implement empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider plant functional trade-offs and their interactions with climatic changes to forecast and explain biodiversity changes and biome shifts.

    The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including eco-physiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We apply JeDi to quantify biodiversity changes and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

    Our results show (i a significant biodiversity loss in the tropics, (ii an increase in biodiversity at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a poleward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants.

    We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from plant functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships in order to address questions about the causes of biodiversity changes and biome shifts.

  19. Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models' response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio; Tan, Zhihong; Bony, Sandrine; Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex

    2016-07-01

    How tropical low clouds change with climate remains the dominant source of uncertainty in global warming projections. An analysis of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models reveals that a significant part of the spread in the models' climate sensitivity can be accounted by differences in the climatological shallowness of tropical low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes: models with shallower low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes tend to have a higher climate sensitivity than models with deeper low clouds. The dynamical mechanisms responsible for the model differences are analyzed. Competing effects of parameterized boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are found to be essential. Boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are typically represented by distinct parameterization schemes in current models—parameterization schemes that often produce opposing effects on low clouds. Convective drying of the boundary layer tends to deepen low clouds and reduce the cloud fraction at the lowest levels; turbulent moistening tends to make low clouds more shallow but affects the low-cloud fraction less. The relative importance different models assign to these opposing mechanisms contributes to the spread of the climatological shallowness of low clouds and thus to the spread of low-cloud changes under global warming.

  20. Impact of the observed extratropics on climatological simulations of the MJO in a tropical channel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Nicholas M. J.; Thibaut, Séverin; Marchesiello, Patrick

    2016-06-01

    A regional model is used to quantify the influence of the extratropics on simulated tropical intraseasonal variability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run in tropical channel mode with the boundaries at 30° N and S constrained to 6-hourly reanalysis data. Experiments with modified boundary conditions are carried out in which intraseasonal (20-100 days) timescales are removed, or in which only the annual and diurnal cycles are retained. Twin runs are used to give an objective measure of the boundary-independant component of the variance in each case. The model captures MJO-like propagating structures and shows greater zonal-wind variance in runs with full boundary conditions. Comparison between experiments indicates that about half the intraseasonal variance can be attributed to boundary influence, and specifically to the presence of an intraseasonal extratropical signal. This signal is associated with stronger correlations between low-level zonal wind precursors in the Pacific sector and Indian Ocean convective events. Temporal coherence between MJO events in the model and the observations is analysed by defining four phases based on convectively coupled signals in the low-level zonal wind. The model can only match observed events above the level of chance when intraseasonal boundary information is provided. Results are analysed in terms of `primary' and `successive' events. Although the model hindcast skill is generally poor, it is better for successive events.

  1. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  2. Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D

  3. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Muir, Leslie; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2017-09-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in the present study). Here, we investigate the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis suggests that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific indeed translate into a cold equatorial bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and local surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extra-tropics, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical Pacific albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs—a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias in the models is to improve the representation of subtropical and mid-latitude cloud albedo.

  4. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Muir, Leslie; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2016-11-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in the present study). Here, we investigate the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis suggests that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific indeed translate into a cold equatorial bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and local surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extra-tropics, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical Pacific albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs—a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias in the models is to improve the representation of subtropical and mid-latitude cloud albedo.

  5. SST and North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall: A Statistical Modeling Study

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Timothy

    2008-01-01

    We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the tropical North Atlantic being in either the 19 hottest or the 19 coldest years in the period 1950-2005. For each conditioning many synthetic TCs are generated and landfall rates computed. Compared to direct analysis of historical landfall, the track model reduces the sampling error by projecting information from the entire basin onto the coast. There are 46% more TCs in hot years than cold in the model, which is highly significant compared to random sampling and corroborates well documented trends in North Atlantic TC number in recent decades. In the absence of other effects, this difference results in a significant increase in model landfall rates in hot years, uniform along the coast. Hot-cold differences in the geographic distribution of genesis and in TC propagation do not...

  6. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  7. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... in West Africa. Generic models were also developed for the forest ecosystem, and basic wood density determined for the tree species. Non-destructive sampling approach was carried out on five hundred and one sample trees to analyse stem volume and biomass. From the modelling of volume and biomass...... predictive ability for biomass. Given tree species richness of tropical forests, the study demonstrated the hypothesis that species-specific models are preferred to generic models, and concluded that further research should be oriented towards development of specific models to cover the full range...

  8. The value of biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    CJR. Alho

    2008-01-01

    In addition to its intrinsic value (nature working as it is; species are the product of a long history of continuing evolution by means of ecological processes, and so they have the right to continued existence), biodiversity also plays a fundamental role as ecosystem services in the maintenance of natural ecological processes. The economic or utilitarian values of biodiversity rely upon the dependence of man on biodiversity; products that nature can provide: wood, food, fibers to make paper,...

  9. The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP: TRACMIP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voigt, Aiko [Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Department Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe Germany; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Biasutti, Michela [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Scheff, Jacob [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Bader, Jürgen [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany; Bordoni, Simona [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Codron, Francis [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Laboratoire d' Océanographie et du Climat, Paris France; Dixon, Ross D. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison Wisconsin USA; Jonas, Jeffrey [Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Kang, Sarah M. [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan South Korea; Klingaman, Nicholas P. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading UK; Leung, Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lu, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Mapes, Brian [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami Florida USA; Maroon, Elizabeth A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; McDermid, Sonali [New York University, New York New York USA; Park, Jong-yeon [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany; Roehrig, Romain [Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Meteo-France/CNRS Toulouse France; Rose, Brian E. J. [University at Albany (State University of New York), Albany New York USA; Russell, Gary L. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York New York USA; Seo, Jeongbin [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan South Korea; Toniazzo, Thomas [Uni Research, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen Norway; Wei, Ho-Hsuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Yoshimori, Masakazu [Faculty of Environmental Earth Science and Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo Japan; Vargas Zeppetello, Lucas R. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA

    2016-12-02

    This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. This survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.

  10. Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M

    2017-01-01

    With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

  11. Global biodiversity monitoring: from data sources to essential biodiversity variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proenca, Vania; Martin, Laura J.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Fernandez, Miguel; McRae, Louise; Belnap, Jayne; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Garcia-Moreno, Jaime; Gregory, Richard D.; Honrado, Joao P; Jürgens, Norbert; Opige, Michael; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Tiago, Patricia; van Sway, Chris A

    2016-01-01

    Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

  12. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  13. Scaling statistics in a critical, nonlinear physical model of tropical oceanic rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nordstrom

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, concepts of scale invariance have come to the fore in both modeling and data analysis in hydrological precipitation research. With the advent of the use of the multiplicative random cascade model, these concepts have become increasingly more important. However, unifying this statistical view of the phenomenon with the physics of rainfall has proven to be a rather nontrivial task. In this paper, we present a simple model, developed entirely from qualitative physical arguments, without invoking any statistical assumptions, to represent tropical atmospheric convection over the ocean. The model is analyzed numerically. It shows that the data from the model rainfall look very spiky, as if generated from a random field model. They look qualitatively similar to real rainfall data sets from Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE. A critical point is found in a model parameter corresponding to the Convective Inhibition (CIN, at which rainfall changes abruptly from non-zero to a uniform zero value over the entire domain. Near the critical value of this parameter, the model rainfall field exhibits multifractal scaling determined from a fractional wetted area analysis and a moment scaling analysis. It therefore must exhibit long-range spatial correlations at this point, a situation qualitatively similar to that shown by multiplicative random cascade models and GATE rainfall data sets analyzed previously (Over and Gupta, 1994; Over, 1995. However, the scaling exponents associated with the model data are different from those estimated with real data. This comparison identifies a new theoretical framework for testing diverse physical hypotheses governing rainfall based in empirically observed scaling statistics.

  14. Scaling statistics in a critical, nonlinear physical model of tropical oceanic rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordstrom, K. M.; Gupta, V. K.

    Over the last two decades, concepts of scale invariance have come to the fore in both modeling and data analysis in hydrological precipitation research. With the advent of the use of the multiplicative random cascade model, these concepts have become increasingly more important. However, unifying this statistical view of the phenomenon with the physics of rainfall has proven to be a rather nontrivial task. In this paper, we present a simple model, developed entirely from qualitative physical arguments, without invoking any statistical assumptions, to represent tropical atmospheric convection over the ocean. The model is analyzed numerically. It shows that the data from the model rainfall look very spiky, as if generated from a random field model. They look qualitatively similar to real rainfall data sets from Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). A critical point is found in a model parameter corresponding to the Convective Inhibition (CIN), at which rainfall changes abruptly from non-zero to a uniform zero value over the entire domain. Near the critical value of this parameter, the model rainfall field exhibits multifractal scaling determined from a fractional wetted area analysis and a moment scaling analysis. It therefore must exhibit long-range spatial correlations at this point, a situation qualitatively similar to that shown by multiplicative random cascade models and GATE rainfall data sets analyzed previously (Over and Gupta, 1994; Over, 1995). However, the scaling exponents associated with the model data are different from those estimated with real data. This comparison identifies a new theoretical framework for testing diverse physical hypotheses governing rainfall based in empirically observed scaling statistics.

  15. THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周霞琼; 端义宏; 朱永禔

    2003-01-01

    Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied usinga primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 - 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly. The skill of 60 % - 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steeringcurrent is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.

  16. A modulating effect of Tropical Instability Wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two air-sea coupling phenomena that are prominent in the tropical Pacific, occurring at vastly different space-time scales. It has been challenging to adequately represent both of these processes within a large-scale coupled climate model, which has led to a poor understanding of the interactions between TIW-induced feedback and ENSO. In this study, a novel modeling system was developed that allows representation of TIW-scale air-sea coupling and its interaction with ENSO. Satellite data were first used to derive an empirical model for TIW-induced sea surface wind stress perturbations (τTIW). The model was then embedded in a basin-wide hybrid-coupled model (HCM) of the tropical Pacific. Because τTIW were internally determined from TIW-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTTIW) simulated in the ocean model, the wind-SST coupling at TIW scales was interactively represented within the large-scale coupled model. Because the τTIW-SSTTIW coupling part of the model can be turned on or off in the HCM simulations, the related TIW wind feedback effects can be isolated and examined in a straightforward way. Then, the TIW-scale wind feedback effects on the large-scale mean ocean state and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific were investigated based on this embedded system. The interactively represented TIW-scale wind forcing exerted an asymmetric influence on SSTs in the HCM, characterized by a mean-state cooling and by a positive feedback on interannual variability, acting to enhance ENSO amplitude. Roughly speaking, the feedback tends to increase interannual SST variability by approximately 9%. Additionally, there is a tendency for TIW wind to have an effect on the phase transition during ENSO evolution, with slightly shortened interannual oscillation periods. Additional sensitivity experiments were performed to elucidate the details of TIW wind effects on SST evolution during ENSO

  17. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia PG

    2015-01-01

    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibia...

  18. Ensemble single column modeling (ESCM) in the tropical western Pacific: Forcing data sets and uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, Timothy; Jakob, Christian

    2005-07-01

    Single column models (SCMs) are useful tools for the evaluation of parameterisations of radiative and moist processes used in general circulation models (GCMs). Most SCM studies to date have concentrated on regions where there is a sufficiently dense observational network to derive the required forcing data. This paper describes an ensemble single column modeling (ESCM) approach where the forcing data are derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis products. To highlight the benefits of the ESCM approach, four forcing data sets were derived for a two year period at the Tropical Western Pacific ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program) sites at Manus Island and Nauru. In the first section of the study, the NWP derived forcing data are validated against a range of observations at the tropical sites. In the second section, the sensitivity of two different SCMs to uncertainties in the forcing data sets are analysed. It is shown that despite the inherent uncertainties in the NWP derived forcing data, an ESCM approach is able to identify errors in the SCM physics. This suggests the ESCM approach is useful for testing parameterisations in relatively observation sparse regions, such as the TWP.

  19. Climate-smart management of biodiversity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nadeau, Christopher P; Fuller, Angela K; Rosenblatt, Daniel L

    2015-01-01

    ...., climate-smart management considerations). Our model suggests that biodiversity will be most vulnerable in Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Columbia due to the combination of high climate change velocity, high landscape resistance...

  20. On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, Sebastian; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall. (orig.)

  1. The climate responses of tropical and boreal ecosystems with an improved land surface model (JULES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Anna; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Cox, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Jones, Chris

    2016-04-01

    The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land surface of the next generation UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). Recently, JULES was updated with new plant functional types and physiology based on a global plant trait database. These developments improved the simulation of terrestrial gross and net primary productivity on local and global scales, and enabled a more realistic representation of the global distribution of vegetation. In this study, we explore the present-day distribution of ecosystems and their vulnerability to climate change in JULES with these improvements, focusing on tropical and boreal ecosystems. Changes to these ecosystems will have implications for biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change and need to be understood. First, we examine the simulated and observed rainforest-savannah boundary, which is strongly related to annual precipitation and the maximum climatological water deficit. Second, we assess the length of growing season and biomass stored in boreal ecosystems, where 20th century warming has likely extended the growing season. In each case, we first evaluate the ability of JULES to capture observed climate-vegetation relationships and trends. Finally, we run JULES to 2100 using climate data from 3 models and 2 RCP scenarios, and examine potential 21st century changes to these ecosystems. For example, do the tropical forests shrink in response to changes in tropical rainfall seasonality? And, how does the composition of boreal ecosystems change in response to climate warming? Given the potential for climate feedbacks and the inherent value in these ecosystems, it is essential to assess their responses to a range of climate change scenarios.

  2. Prediction and Diagnosis of Typhoon Morakot (2009 Using the Naval Research Laboratory's Mesoscale Tropical Cyclone Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A. Hendricks

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009 were performed using the Naval Research Laboratory¡¦s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC. COAMPS-TC was run in real-time in 2009 in the western North Pacific Ocean basin, and simulations of Morakot were executed during its life cycle, from formation through landfall in Taiwan. In this work, an evaluation of the model¡¦s performance is presented. The COAMPS-TC average track errors were small and very close to those of the consensus. Further, the intensity errors were small; the mean absolute intensity error at the 48 h lead time was 9 kt. Particular focus was placed on the 72-h simulation beginning on 1200 UTC 6 August, encompassing the time frame before, during and after landfall. COAMPS-TC was able to predict the structure of Morakot reasonably well before and after landfall, capturing a large asymmetric tropical cyclone with the precipitation shield shifted to the south of its center. Qualitatively, the precipitation forecast was consistent with observations from the Taiwan rain gauge network, as the model was able to predict two maxima, in both the northern and southern portions of the central mountain range. However, the accumulated precipitation maximum in the southern portion of the central mountain range was underpredicted by approximately 50%. The underprediction in precipitation by COAMPS-TC in southern Taiwan was due to four factors: (i the premature dissipation of tropical storm Goni causing errors in the large-scale flow and moisture pattern after landfall, (ii inaccuracies in the spatial location and timing of convective and stratiform precipitation as Morakot interacted with land and the southwest monsoon flow, (iii a simulated track that moved slightly too slow prior to landfall and slightly too fast after landfall, and (iv a horizontal resolution (5-km that may be too coarse to resolve the interaction of convection with the

  3. Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chave, Jérôme; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Búrquez, Alberto; Chidumayo, Emmanuel; Colgan, Matthew S; Delitti, Welington B C; Duque, Alvaro; Eid, Tron; Fearnside, Philip M; Goodman, Rosa C; Henry, Matieu; Martínez-Yrízar, Angelina; Mugasha, Wilson A; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Nelson, Bruce W; Ngomanda, Alfred; Nogueira, Euler M; Ortiz-Malavassi, Edgar; Pélissier, Raphaël; Ploton, Pierre; Ryan, Casey M; Saldarriaga, Juan G; Vieilledent, Ghislain

    2014-10-01

    Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development.

  4. The strength of the tropical inversion and its response to climate change in 18 CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

    2015-07-01

    We examine the tropical inversion strength, measured by the estimated inversion strength (EIS), and its response to climate change in 18 models associated with phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). While CMIP5 models generally capture the geographic distribution of observed EIS, they systematically underestimate it off the west coasts of continents, due to a warm bias in sea surface temperature. The negative EIS bias may contribute to the low bias in tropical low-cloud cover in the same models. Idealized perturbation experiments reveal that anthropogenic forcing leads directly to EIS increases, independent of "temperature-mediated" EIS increases associated with long-term oceanic warming. This fast EIS response to anthropogenic forcing is strongly impacted by nearly instantaneous continental warming. The temperature-mediated EIS change has contributions from both uniform and non-uniform oceanic warming. The substantial EIS increases in uniform oceanic warming simulations are due to warming with height exceeding the moist adiabatic lapse rate in tropical warm pools. EIS also increases in fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations where concentration is instantaneously quadrupled, due to both fast and temperature-mediated changes. The temperature-mediated EIS change varies with tropical warming in a nonlinear fashion: The EIS change per degree tropical warming is much larger in the early stage of the simulations than in the late stage, due to delayed warming in the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Given the importance of EIS in regulating tropical low-cloud cover, this suggests that the tropical low-cloud feedback may also be nonlinear.

  5. Recovering biodiversity knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, G.W.; Smolders, H.; Sours, S.; Pou, S.

    2005-01-01

    Cambodian¿s civil wars have seriously affected the country¿s agro-biodiversity and the farmers¿ traditional knowledge in this field. The PEDIGREA project aims at conserving on-farm agro-biodiversity conservation and in Cambodia it focuses on vegetable diversity. It tries to link the preservation of

  6. Biodiversity: Luxury or necessity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rotmans, J.; Groot, de R.S.; Vliet, van A.J.H.

    2002-01-01

    Because biodiversity is so complex and varied, knowledge in this area is still relatively limited. It can be stated that this complexity, combined with structural uncertainty, may well lead to an unpredictable future and further loss of biodiversity which will be characterised by non-linearity, thre

  7. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  8. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  9. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  10. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  11. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel; Cabral, Juliano

    2016-01-01

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration–extinction dynamics1, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island...... sea levels3, 4 and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity5, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory2, 6. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed5, 7...

  12. Biogeochemical mass balances in a turbid tropical reservoir. Field data and modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Doan, Thuy Kim; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Schmid, Martin

    2014-05-01

    The turbid tropical Cointzio reservoir, located in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), behaves as a warm monomictic water body (area = 6 km2, capacity 66 Mm3, residence time ~ 1 year). It is strategic for the drinking water supply of the city of Morelia, capital of the state of Michoacán, and for downstream irrigation during the dry season. This reservoir is a perfect example of a human-impacted system since its watershed is mainly composed of degraded volcanic soils and is subjected to high erosion processes and agricultural loss. The reservoir is threatened by sediment accumulation and nutrients originating from untreated waters in the upstream watershed. The high content of very fine clay particles and the lack of water treatment plants lead to serious episodes of eutrophication (up to 70 μg chl. a L-1), high levels of turbidity (Secchi depth water vertical profiles, reservoir inflow and outflow) we determined suspended sediment (SS), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mass balances. Watershed SS yields were estimated at 35 t km2 y-1 of which 89-92 % were trapped in the Cointzio reservoir. As a consequence the reservoir has already lost 25 % of its initial storage capacity since its construction in 1940. Nutrient mass balances showed that 50 % and 46 % of incoming P and N were retained by sedimentation, and mainly eliminated through denitrification respectively. Removal of C by 30 % was also observed both by sedimentation and through gas emission. To complete field data analyses we examined the ability of vertical one dimensional (1DV) numerical models (Aquasim biogeochemical model coupled with k-ɛ mixing model) to reproduce the main biogeochemical cycles in the Cointzio reservoir. The model can describe all the mineralization processes both in the water column and in the sediment. The values of the entire mass balance of nutrients and of the mineralization rates (denitrification and aerobic benthic mineralization) calculated from the model

  13. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  14. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  15. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varsha Vijay

    Full Text Available Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  16. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

    2010-08-17

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

  17. A New Function for Modelling Diameter Frequency Distribution in the Tropical Rain Forest of Xishuangbanna, Southwest of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lu Yuanchang; Lei Xiangdong; Jiang Lei

    2003-01-01

    Permanent plots in the montane tropical rain forests in Xishuangbanna, southwest China, were established, and different empirical models, based on observation data of these plots in 1992, were built to model diameter frequency distributions. The focus of this study is on predicting accuracy of stem number in the larger diameter classes, which is much more important than that of the smaller trees, from the view of forest management, and must be adequately considered in the modelling and estimate. There exist 3 traditional ways of modelling the diameter frequency distribution: the negative exponential function model, limiting line function model, and Weibull distribution model. In this study, a new model, named as the logarithmic J-shape function, together with the others, was experimented and was found as a more suitable model for modelling works in the tropical forests.

  18. A process-driven sedimentary habitat modelling approach, explaining seafloor integrity and biodiversity assessment within the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galparsoro, Ibon; Borja, Ángel; Kostylev, Vladimir E.; Rodríguez, J. Germán; Pascual, Marta; Muxika, Iñigo

    2013-10-01

    The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve good environmental status, by 2020, for European seas. This study analyses the applicability of a process-driven benthic sedimentary habitat model, to be used in the implementation of the MSFD in relation to biodiversity and seafloor integrity descriptors for sedimentary habitats. Our approach maps the major environmental factors influencing soft-bottom macrobenthic community structure and the life-history traits of species. Among the 16 environmental variables considered, a combination of water depth, mean grain size, a wave-induced sediment resuspension index and annual bottom maximum temperature, are the most significant factors explaining the variability in the structure of benthic communities in the study area. These variables are classified into those representing the ‘Disturbance' and ‘Scope for Growth' components of the environment. It was observed that the habitat classes defined in the process-driven model reflected different structural and functional characteristics of the benthos. Moreover, benthic community structure anomalies due to human pressures could also be detected within the model produced. Thus, the final process-driven habitat map can be considered as being highly useful for seafloor integrity and biodiversity assessment, within the European MSFD as well as for conservation, environmental status assessment and managing human activities, especially within the marine spatial planning process.

  19. Spatial patterns of primary productivity derived from the Dynamic Habitat Indices predict patterns of species richness and distributions in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttidate, Naparat

    Humans are changing the Earth's ecosystems, which has profound consequences for biodiversity. To understand how species respond to these changes, biodiversity science requires accurate assessments of biodiversity. However, biodiversity assessments are still limited in tropical regions. The Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), derived from satellite data, summarize dynamic patterns of annual primary productivity: (a) cumulative annual productivity, (b) minimum annual productivity, and (c) seasonal variation in productivity. The DHIs have been successfully used in temperate regions, but not yet in the tropics. My goal was to evaluate the importance of primary productivity measured via the DHIs for assessing patterns of species richness and distributions in Thailand. First, I assessed the relationships between the DHIs and tropical bird species richness. I also evaluated the complementarity of the DHIs and topography, climate, latitudinal gradients, habitat heterogeneity, and habitat area in explaining bird species richness. I found that among three DHIs, cumulative annual productivity was the most important factor in explaining bird species richness and that the DHIs outperformed other environmental variables. Second, I developed texture measures derive from DHI cumulative annual productivity, and compared them to habitat composition and fragmentation as predictors of tropical forest bird distributions. I found that adding texture measures to habitat composition and fragmentation models improved the prediction of tropical bird distributions, especially area- and edge-sensitive tropical forest bird species. Third, I predicted the effects of trophic interactions between primary productivity, prey, and predators in relation to habitat connectivity for Indochinese tigers (Panthera tigris). I found that including trophic interactions improved habitat suitability models for tigers. However, tiger habitat is highly fragmented with few dispersal corridors. I also identified

  20. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hartig

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics, and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC, another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter

  1. Modelling the Influence of Tropically-Excited Poleward Propagating Rossby Waves and their influence on recent Arctic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrystall, M.; Hosking, J. S.; Maycock, A.; Pyle, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Identifying the key drivers of Arctic climate is essential for understanding the recent changes in local climate and the mechanisms for these changes. Remote sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have been identified by Ding et al. (2014) as a driver of these recent changes by inducing surface and mid-tropospheric warming and increase in 200 hPa geopotential heights (Z200), particularly over northern Canada and Greenland. This work further investigates the robustness of the Tropical-Arctic teleconnection by assessing the role of tropical SSTs in exciting planetary scale Rossby waves, and determining their effect on Arctic climate. We analyse a series of sensitivity experiments, using the Met Office HadGEM3 atmospheric model, forced by observed changes in SSTs between the periods 1979-1988 and 2003-2012 imposed for; [i] the entire tropics, [ii] the tropical Pacific Ocean and [iii] the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The spatial patterns of Z200 anomalies in the experiments are quantitatively compared to the 27-year Z200 trends from ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the model results of Ding et al. (2014). In contrast to their results, we found negative Z200 anomalies over northern Canada and Greenland in boreal winter in response to recent changes in tropical SSTs. We capture, however, an increase in Z200 of around 20 m over Scandinavia and the Aleutian Islands. To understand the direct influence of the tropical SST forcing on high latitudes, we analyse 3D wave activity flux anomalies, based on Plumb (1985). There is large variability in northern hemisphere wave flux anomalies but we do identify a Rossby wave train from the tropical Atlantic projecting onto the anomalous Z200 over Scandinavia. The results suggest changes in tropical SSTs can affect regional Arctic climate through their effect on poleward propagating Rossby waves, however from these experiments, it appears that this process has not contributed to the recent observed Z200 trends over northern Canada and Greenland

  2. Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.

    2000-01-01

    Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major

  3. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  4. The sensitivity of subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability to model ocean mixed layer depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2002-01-01

    The influence of air-sea interaction on subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability is explored through analysis of three long simulations of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with differing ocean specifications: a coupled ocean GCM, a simple 50-m mixed layer model, or climatological sea surface temperatures (SST); together with 50-year simulations with mixed layer depths of 10 m and 20 m. The analysis focuses initially on a signal similar to a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) contained in the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of monthly anomalies of tropical 807-hPa winds in January in the coupled model. Time-lag regression is used to demonstrate that these patterns propagate eastward, although at only half the speed of the MJO, and induce perturbations to the Australian monsoon. The specified SST model shows no such propagation. Similar results are then obtained using daily data filtered to retain subannual periods. The eastward propagation speed is faster in the shallower mixed layer cases, with the 10-m case producing speeds close to observations. In the interactive models, surface energy fluxes force SST anomalies propagating ahead of the EOF convergence. These fluxes are largely consistent with evaporation perturbed by wind anomalies to the monsoon westerlies, augmented by solar radiation. The SST anomalies then further perturb the winds, as is confirmed by a separate SST perturbation experiment. From the examination of other seasons, it is seen that air-sea interaction generally enhances the amplitude of the MJO-like patterns. It also enhances their eastward propagation along westerly wind bands. Analysis of zonal wave number one winds confirms the strong sensitivity to mixed layer depth in the amplitude and period of the eastward propagating component, particularly during September through February. The results suggest that air-sea interaction may be important to the

  5. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuemei Han

    Full Text Available Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate, state of species (Red List Index, conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas, and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision. Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the

  6. A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xuemei; Smyth, Regan L; Young, Bruce E; Brooks, Thomas M; Sánchez de Lozada, Alexandra; Bubb, Philip; Butchart, Stuart H M; Larsen, Frank W; Hamilton, Healy; Hansen, Matthew C; Turner, Will R

    2014-01-01

    Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the protection of

  7. A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puotinen, Marji; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Beeden, Roger; Radford, Ben; Williams, Gareth J.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the ‘damage zone’) enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia’s Great Barrier Reef from 1985–2015 using three models – including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985–2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

  8. Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dhomse

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (reanalysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4% solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which

  9. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  10. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  11. Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.; Gao, Chaochao

    2017-02-01

    The response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications, but remains poorly constrained. Paleoclimate records suggest an “El Niño-like” warming 1 year following major eruptions [Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Nature 426:274-278] and “La Niña-like” cooling within the eruption year [Li J, et al. (2013) Nat Clim Chang 3:822-826]. However, climate models currently cannot capture all these responses. Many eruption characteristics are poorly constrained, which may contribute to uncertainties in model solutions—for example, the season of eruption occurrence is often unknown and assigned arbitrarily. Here we isolate the effect of eruption season using experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), varying the starting month of two large tropical eruptions. The eruption-year atmospheric circulation response is strongly seasonally dependent, with effects on European winter warming, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the southeast Asian monsoon. This creates substantial variations in eruption-year hydroclimate patterns, which do sometimes exhibit La Niña-like features as in the proxy record. However, eruption-year equatorial Pacific cooling is not driven by La Niña dynamics, but strictly by transient radiative cooling. In contrast, equatorial warming the following year occurs for all starting months and operates dynamically like El Niño. Proxy reconstructions confirm these results: eruption-year cooling is insignificant, whereas warming in the following year is more robust. This implies that accounting for the event season may be necessary to describe the initial response to volcanic eruptions and that climate models may be more accurately simulating volcanic influences than previously thought.

  12. The pelagic ecosystem of the tropical Pacific Ocean: dynamic spatial modelling and biological consequences of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick

    A feature of the central equatorial Pacific is a strong divergent equatorial upwelling called the cold tongue, which is favorable to the development of a large zonal band with high levels of primary production. Contiguous to the cold tongue, is the western Pacific warm pool, which is characterized by warmer water with lower levels of primary production. At the top of the food web, the tropical tunas are a major component of the pelagic ecosystem and have their maximum biomass in the warm pool. However, during ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, variability is observed in both environmental factors and the spatial distribution of tuna. A Spatial Environmental Population Dynamics Model (SEPODYM) is used to assist in the analysis and interpretation of these fishery oceanographic observations. A modelling approach is described and applied to the population and fisheries of skipjack tuna, one of the top predator species with its greatest biomass in the tropical pelagic ecosystem. Environmental variables are used in the model for delineating the spawning area of skipjack, reproducing the transport of its larvae and juveniles, and simulating tuna forage. The forage production is deduced from a simple ecological transfer based on new primary production with biomass calculated as a single population. The model considers an interaction between predicted tuna density and forage density. A habitat index combining temperature preferences with forage distribution is used to constrain the movement of adult tuna. Results of the simulation allow realistic prediction of the large-scale distribution of the species. There is a remarkable out-of-phase pattern linked to ENSO between the western Pacific region and the cold tongue. This pattern is consistent with the observed movements of skipjack.

  13. Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Tomas, Robert A; Gao, Chaochao

    2017-02-21

    The response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications, but remains poorly constrained. Paleoclimate records suggest an "El Niño-like" warming 1 year following major eruptions [Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Nature 426:274-278] and "La Niña-like" cooling within the eruption year [Li J, et al. (2013) Nat Clim Chang 3:822-826]. However, climate models currently cannot capture all these responses. Many eruption characteristics are poorly constrained, which may contribute to uncertainties in model solutions-for example, the season of eruption occurrence is often unknown and assigned arbitrarily. Here we isolate the effect of eruption season using experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), varying the starting month of two large tropical eruptions. The eruption-year atmospheric circulation response is strongly seasonally dependent, with effects on European winter warming, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the southeast Asian monsoon. This creates substantial variations in eruption-year hydroclimate patterns, which do sometimes exhibit La Niña-like features as in the proxy record. However, eruption-year equatorial Pacific cooling is not driven by La Niña dynamics, but strictly by transient radiative cooling. In contrast, equatorial warming the following year occurs for all starting months and operates dynamically like El Niño. Proxy reconstructions confirm these results: eruption-year cooling is insignificant, whereas warming in the following year is more robust. This implies that accounting for the event season may be necessary to describe the initial response to volcanic eruptions and that climate models may be more accurately simulating volcanic influences than previously thought.

  14. Measurements and Modelling of Glyoxal in the Tropical Marine Boundary Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, D. J.; Walker, H.; Ingham, T.; Whalley, L. K.; Hackenberg, S.; Read, K.; Lee, J. D.; Carpenter, L.; Spracklen, D. V.; Heard, D. E.; Arnold, S.

    2015-12-01

    Glyoxal (CHOCHO) is a reactive volatile organic compound (VOC) produced during the atmospheric oxidation of both anthropogenic VOCs, such as acetylene and benzene, and biogenic VOCs, such as isoprene and monoterpenes. The photo-oxidation of glyoxal leads to the rapid production of peroxy radicals and condensable products, which are expected to result in formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We report new measurements of glyoxal in the tropical marine boundary layer, which were made using laser-induced phosphorescence (LIP) spectroscopy at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in June and August-September 2014 during the Ocean Reactive Carbon: Chemistry-Climate impacts (ORC3) campaign. The measurement site is marked by an absence of coastal features such as extensive shallows or large seaweed beds, and receives clean, well-processed marine air more than 95 % of the time, with minimal influence from local effects. Maximum glyoxal mixing ratios of ~15 ppt were observed during the ORC3 campaigns, with typical daytime maxima of ~ 5-6 ppt during June and ~ 6-8 ppt during August-September, and nighttime minima of ~ 4 ppt and ~4-5 ptt during June and August-September, respectively. This presentation will summarise these new measurements of glyoxal, in conjunction with box model simulations using the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM). Simulations are constrained to observations of glyoxal precursors, and are used to investigate the sources and sinks of glyoxal in the tropical marine boundary layer. Model calculations significantly underestimate the observed abundances of glyoxal, indicating the need for additional sources in the model. A number of possible scenarios will be discussed to explain the discrepancy between the measurements and the model.

  15. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  16. Tropical Plant Collections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    and American institutions and the dire conditions of funding and staffing in many tropical herbaria and botanical gardens. This happens at the same time as the collections become increasingly important for a series of modern approaches to evolutionary and biodiversity research and the needs of the biodiversity...... into one single large institution. A section followed on North-South collaboration relative to botanical collections and floristic research. Newman and colleagues presented the Flora of Thailand project with a history different from most of the other examples because Thailand was never colonized. Nordal...... and colleagues described how Norway has had programs to train botanists from a number of African countries. Balslev and colleagues present a successful capacity building project in Ecuador, which has resulted in a world-class herbarium and a cadre of well-trained taxonomists. Prance described a successful MSc...

  17. Simulating Tropical Instability Waves in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xianyan; Masahide KIMOTO

    2009-01-01

    Satellite observations of SSTs have revealed the existence of unstable waves in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These waves have a 20-40-day periodicity with westward phase speeds of 0.4-0.6 m s-1 and wavelengths of 1000-2000 km during boreal summer and fall.They are generally called tropical instability waves (TIWs).This study investigates TIWs simulated by a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM).The horizontal resolution of the model is 120 km in the atmosphere,and 30 km longitude by 20 km latitude in the ocean.Model simulations show good agreement with the observed main features associated with TIWs.The results of energetics analysis reveal that barotropic energy conversion is responsible for providing the main energy source for TIWs by extracting energy from the meridional shear of the climatological-mean equatorial currents in the mixed layer.This deeper and northward-extended wave activity appears to gain its energy through baroclinic conversion via buoyancy work,which further contributes to the asymmetric distribution of TIWs.It is estimated that the strong cooling effect induced by equatorial upwelling is partially (~30%-40%)offset by the equatorward heat flux due to TIWs in the eastern tropical Pacific during the seasons when TIWs are active.The atmospheric mixed layer just above the sea surface responds to the waves with enhanced or reduced vertical mixing.Furthermore,the changes in turbulent mixing feed back to sea surface evaporation,favoring the westward propagation of TIWs.The atmosphere to the south of the Equator also responds to TIWs in a similar way,although TIWs are much weaker south of the Equator.

  18. Using the Variable-Resolution General Circulation Model CAM-SE to Simulate Regional Tropical Cyclone Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.; Jablonowski, C.; Taylor, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve tropical cyclones in the climate system has traditionally been difficult due to issues such as small storm size and the existence of key thermodynamic processes requiring significant parameterization. At traditional GCM grid resolutions of 50-300 km tropical cyclones are severely under-resolved, if not totally unresolved. Recent improvements in computational ability as well as advances in GCM model design now allow for simulations with grid spacings as small as 10-25 km. At these resolutions, models are able to more effectively capture key dynamical features of tropical cyclones. This paper explores a variable-resolution global model approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such GCM designs with multi-resolution meshes serve to bridge the gap between globally uniform grids and limited area models and have the potential to become a future tool for regional climate assessments. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. The SE dynamical core is also known as the 'High-Order Method Modeling Environment' (HOMME). We present aquaplanet climate experiments which showcase the ability of nested meshes to produce realistic tropical cyclones selectively in high resolution grids embedded within a global domain. We also evaluate model performance when coupled to an active land model and forced with historical sea surface temperatures by comparing multi-year results from variable-resolution CAM-SE to other globally-uniform high resolution tropical cyclone studies recently completed by the climate modeling community. Specific focus is paid to intensity profiles and track densities as well as the interannual variability in storm count in tropical regions of

  19. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  20. Forest biodiversity assessment model based on the nature reserve area in China%基于自然保护区面积的森林生物多样性评价模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张颖

    2013-01-01

    There is an important significance of studying of forest biodiversity assessment for promoting the conservation of forest biodiversity and enhancing biodiversity management in China.The paper collected forest biodiversity assessment-related data from 2001 to 2010,and used of optimal control methods in Economic Cybernetics to establish the evaluation model,and calculated the optimal price for forest biodiversity assessment based on the nature reserve area.The studies showed that forest biodiversity assessment of the optimal price was 9,970 RMB yuan/hm2,and there was a dynamic model of evaluation.Finally,the study suggested China's forest biodiversity assessment should use the shadow price,and should consider the social,economic and other factors.%森林生物多样性评价研究对促进生物多样性保护、加强生物多样性管理等有重要意义.以全国森林资源统计和林业统计年鉴数据为基础,收集2001-2010年森林生物多样性评价的有关数据,采用经济控制论中最优控制的方法建立有关评价模型,获得基于自然保护区面积的森林生物多样性评价的最优价格.结果表明,我国森林生物多样性评价的最优价格为0.997万元/hm2,并且存在评价的动态模型,提出我国森林生物多样性评价应采用影子价格,并应考虑社会、经济等因素的建议.

  1. Biodiversity of parasites in a freshwater environment with respect to pollution: metazoan parasites of chub (Leuciscus cephalus L.) as a model for statistical evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusek, L; Gelnar, M; Sebelová, S

    1998-10-01

    This paper represents an attempt to evaluate the environmental indicative potential of the biodiversity of monogenean parasites using hierarchically structured species-abundance data. A logical set of statistical methods integrating standard diversity indices, a novel approach to quantitative analysis of cumulative species-abundance curves and species-abundance models was applied for this purpose. Applicability of biodiversity measures was demonstrated using experimental data from a 1-year study on the ecology of metazoan parasites of chub (Leuciscus cephalus) in one polluted and one control site in the Morava river, Czech Republic. Analyses at the component community level revealed a significant decrease in the number of parasite species with a more equal distribution of their abundances in the polluted site compared with the control site. In order to reach a better understanding of the changes, diversity of Monogenea as a dominant part of the community was further examined within categories of species created according to: (1) specificity of infection (specialists and generalists), (2) monogenean genera (Dactylogyrus, Gyrodactylus and Paradiplozoon) and (3) inhabited guilds (skin + fins, gills). Assemblages of specialists in the polluted site exhibited a significantly reduced species richness and unequal distribution of abundances. The opposite pattern was observed in the case of generalists. The influence of pollution was also reflected by the distribution of species abundances within communities of Dactylogyrus and Paradiplozoon, while no significant shift was identified in the genus Gyrodactylus.

  2. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  3. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  4. The Impact of Boreal and Tropical Forests on Global Surface Temperature : A climate sensitivity study with an Energy Balance Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laan van der, Sander

    2005-01-01

    In order to estimate the effect of drastic land use changes on the global mean temperature, a set of scenario experiments were performed with a one-dimensional energy balance model. The main focus of this project was on land use changes in the tropical an

  5. Simulating tropical carbon stocks and fluxes in a changing world using an individual-based forest model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Rico; Huth, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Large areas of tropical forests are disturbed due to climate change and human influence. Experts estimate that the last remaining rainforests could be destroyed in less than 100 years with strong consequences for both developing and industrial countries. Using a modelling approach we analyse how disturbances modify carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of African rainforests. In this study we use the process-based, individual-oriented forest model FORMIND. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. The study regions are tropical rainforests in the Kilimanjaro region and Madagascar. Modelling above and below ground carbon stocks, we analyze the impact of disturbances and climate change on forest dynamics and forest carbon stocks. Droughts and fire events change the structure of tropical rainforests. Human influence like logging intensify this effect. With the presented results we could establish new allometric relationships between forest variables and above ground carbon stocks in tropical regions. Using remote sensing techniques, these relationships would offer the possibility for a global monitoring of the above ground carbon stored in the vegetation.

  6. A global climate model based, Bayesian climate projection for northern extra-tropical land areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzhanov, Maxim M.; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2012-04-01

    Projections with contemporary global climate models (GCMs) still markedly deviate from each other on magnitude of climate changes, in particular, in middle to subpolar latitudes. In this work, a climate projection based on the ensemble of 18 CMIP3 GCM models forced by SRES A1B scenario is performed for the northern extra-tropical land. To assess the change of soil state, off-line simulations are performed with the Deep Soil Simulator (DSS) developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). This model is forced by output of the above-mentioned GCM simulations. Ensemble mean and ensemble standard deviation for any variable are calculated by using Bayesian averaging which allows to enhance a contribution from more realistic models and diminish that from less realistic models. As a result, uncertainty for soil and permafrost variables become substantially narrower. The Bayesian weights for each model are calculated based on their performance for the present-day surface air temperature (SAT) and permafrost distributions, and for SAT trend during the 20th century. The results, except for intra-ensemble standard deviations, are not very sensitive to particular choice of Bayesian traits. Averaged over the northern extra-tropical land, annual mean surface air temperature in the ensemble increases by 3.1 ± 1.4 K (ensemble mean±intra-ensemble standard deviation) during the 21st century. Precipitation robustly increases in the pan-Arctic and decreases in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region. The models agree on near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. The area underlain by near-surface permafrost decreases from the contemporary value 20 ± 3 mln sq. km to 14 ± 3 mln sq. km in the late 21st century. This leads to risk for geocryological hazard due to soil subsidence. This risk is classified as moderate to high in the southern and western parts of Siberia and Tibet in Eurasia, and in the region from Alaska

  7. Modeling the dynamics of DDT in a remote tropical floodplain: indications of post-ban use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Annelle; Ng, Carla A; Torres, João Paulo Machado; Bastos, Wanderley; Bogdal, Christian; Dos Reis, George Alexandre; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2016-06-01

    Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants like dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in tropical environments. In Brazil, indoor residual spraying with DDT to combat malaria and leishmaniasis began in the 1950s and was banned in 1998. Nonetheless, high concentrations of DDT and its metabolites were recently detected in human breast milk in the community of Lake Puruzinho in the Brazilian Amazon. In this work, we couple analysis of soils and sediments from 2005 to 2014 at Puruzinho with a novel dynamic floodplain model to investigate the movement and distribution of DDT and its transformation products (dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD)) and implications for human exposure. The model results are in good agreement with the accumulation pattern observed in the measurements, in which DDT, DDE, and DDD (collectively, DDX) accumulate primarily in upland soils and sediments. However, a significant increase was observed in DDX concentrations in soil samples from 2005 to 2014, coupled with a decrease of DDT/DDE ratios, which do not agree with model results assuming a post-ban regime. These observations strongly suggest recent use. We used the model to investigate possible re-emissions after the ban through two scenarios: one assuming DDT use for IRS and the other assuming use against termites and leishmaniasis. Median DDX concentrations and p,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDE ratios from both of these scenarios agreed with measurements in soils, suggesting that the soil parameterization in our model was appropriate. Measured DDX concentrations in sediments were between the two re-emission scenarios. Therefore, both soil and sediment comparisons suggest re-emissions indeed occurred between 2005 and 2014, but additional measurements would be needed to better understand the actual re-emission patterns. Monte Carlo analysis revealed model predictions for sediments were very sensitive to highly

  8. TRMM- and GPM-based precipitation analysis and modelling in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manz, Bastian; Buytaert, Wouter; Zulkafli, Zed; Onof, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Despite wide-spread applications of satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) throughout the TRMM-era, the scarcity of ground-based in-situ data (high density gauge networks, rainfall radar) in many hydro-meteorologically important regions, such as tropical mountain environments, has limited our ability to evaluate both SPPs and individual satellite-based sensors as well as accurately model or merge rainfall at high spatial resolutions, particularly with respect to extremes. This has restricted both the understanding of sensor behaviour and performance controls in such regions as well as the accuracy of precipitation estimates and respective hydrological applications ranging from water resources management to early warning systems. Here we report on our recent research into precipitation analysis and modelling using various TRMM and GPM products (2A25, 3B42 and IMERG) in the tropical Andes. In an initial study, 78 high-frequency (10-min) recording gauges in Colombia and Ecuador are used to generate a ground-based validation dataset for evaluation of instantaneous TRMM Precipitation Radar (TPR) overpasses from the 2A25 product. Detection ability, precipitation time-series, empirical distributions and statistical moments are evaluated with respect to regional climatological differences, seasonal behaviour, rainfall types and detection thresholds. Results confirmed previous findings from extra-tropical regions of over-estimation of low rainfall intensities and under-estimation of the highest 10% of rainfall intensities by the TPR. However, in spite of evident regionalised performance differences as a function of local climatological regimes, the TPR provides an accurate estimate of climatological annual and seasonal rainfall means. On this basis, high-resolution (5 km) climatological maps are derived for the entire tropical Andes. The second objective of this work is to improve the local precipitation estimation accuracy and representation of spatial patterns of

  9. Can backcalculation models unravel complex larval growth histories in a tropical freshwater fish?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starrs, D; Ebner, B C; Fulton, C J

    2013-07-01

    This experimental study compared the precision and accuracy of the biological intercept (BI), modified fry (MF) and time-varying growth (TVG) backcalculation models in estimating the early growth of the tropical freshwater purple-spotted gudgeon Mogurnda adspersa. Larvae were reared up to 41 days post hatching under two temperatures and four different feeding regimes. Food and temperature treatments induced complex growth profiles among fish, and although total length (LT ) and otolith radius were related under all conditions, some uncoupling was evident in the otolith-somatic-growth (OSG) relationship of fish subjected to periods of changing food availability. Furthermore, otolith growth was found to be significantly influenced by temperature, but not by food availability. Analysis of backcalculation residuals by linear mixed effects modelling revealed that BI and TVG were equally precise in predicting somatic growth, with the highest accuracy provided by TVG. The performance of all the three models declined as the OSG relationship weakened under low-food conditions, with maximum errors estimated to be 39, 60 and 36% of observed LT for the BI, MF and TVG models, respectively. The need for careful validation of backcalculation models is emphasized when examining fishes subjected to variable environmental conditions, and when exploring the differential influence of temperature and food on fish LT and otolith growth.

  10. Predictability of Indian Monsoon Circulation with High Resolution ECMWF Model in the Perspective of Tropical Forecast During the Tropical Convection Year 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    De, S.; Sahai, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    To address some of the issues of project Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and the project ATHENA as ongoing international activities, an endeavor has been made for the first time to study the predictability of Indian summer monsoon in the backdrop of tropical predictability using 850 hPa atmospheric circulations with the high resolution (T1279) ECMWF model during the boreal summer of 2008 as one of the focus years of YOTC. The major findings obtained from the statistical forecast have been substantiated by the dynamical prediction in terms of the systematic error energy, its growth rate and the attribution of the dominant nonlinear dynamical processes to error growth. The systematic error energy of T1279 (16 km resolution) ECMWF model are generated in African landmass, India and its adjoining oceanic region, in near equatorial west Pacific and around the Madagascar region where the root mean square errors are observed and the zonal wind anomaly shows poor forecast skill. As far as the inadequate predictability of Indian summer monsoon by T1279 ECMWF model (revealed from the results of project ATHENA) is concerned, the systematic error energy and the error growth over Arabian Sea, in the eastern and western India due to the nonlinear convergence and divergence of error flux along with the erroneous Mascarene high may possibly be the determining factors for not showing any discernable improvement in Indian monsoon during the medium range forecast up to 240 h. This work suggests that the higher resolution of ECMWF model may not necessarily lead to the better forecast of Indian monsoon circulations during 2008 unless a methodology can be devised to isolate the errors due to the nonlinear processes that are inherent within the system.

  11. Modeling α- and β-diversity in a tropical forest from remotely sensed and spatial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Stefanoni, J. Luis; Gallardo-Cruz, J. Alberto; Meave, Jorge A.; Rocchini, Duccio; Bello-Pineda, Javier; López-Martínez, J. Omar

    2012-10-01

    Comprehensive information on species distribution and species composition patterns of plant communities is required for effective conservation and management of biodiversity. Remote sensing offers an inexpensive means of attaining complete spatial coverage for large areas, at regular time intervals, and can therefore be extremely useful for estimating both species richness and spatial variation of species composition (α- and β-diversity). An essential step to map such attributes is to identify and understand their main drivers. We used remotely sensed data as a surrogate of plant productivity and habitat structure variables for explaining α- and β-diversity, and evaluated the relative roles of productivity-habitat structure and spatial variables in explaining observed patterns of α- and β-diversity by using a Principal Coordinates of Neighbor Matrices analysis. We also examined the relationship between remotely sensed and field data, in order to map α- and β-diversity at the landscape-level in the Yucatan Peninsula, using a regression kriging procedure. These two procedures integrate the relationship of species richness and spatial species turnover both with remotely sensed data and spatial structure. The empirical models so obtained can be used to predict species richness and variation in species composition, and they can be regarded as valuable tools not only for identifying areas with high local species richness (α-diversity), but also areas with high species turnover (β-diversity). Ultimately, information obtained in this way can help maximize the number of species preserved in a landscape.

  12. Including Tropical Croplands in a Terrestrial Biosphere Model: Application to West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, A.; Sultan, B.; de Noblet, N.

    2008-12-01

    Studying the large-scale relationships between climate and agriculture raises two different issues: the impact of climate on crops, and the potential feedbacks to climate from croplands. A relevant framework to consistently address this twofold issue is to extend existing Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which can be coupled to climate models, in order to explicitly account for croplands. Here we present the first results of such a strategy applied to tropical croplands over West Africa. We introduce directly into the terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (IPSL) adequate processes and parametrizations taken from the crop model SARRAH (CIRAD), which is calibrated for millet over this region. The resulting model, ORCH-mil, realistically simulates the growth and yield of millet when tested on an experimental station in Senegal. The model is then applied over West Africa using a 36-year climate reanalysis dataset. First the model is tested in terms of yield simulation, against national millet yields from the FAO database. The ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of millet yields is assessed. Then, the effects on land surface fluxes of explicitly accounting for croplands are examined, by comparison between ORCH-mil and ORCHIDEE. These first simulations show consistent results, but underline the need for some further development and validation of the model if it is to simulate yields accurately. In terms of land surface fluxes, significant differences between ORCH-mil and ORCHIDEE appear, mainly via changes in evaporation and albedo. The potential impact on the west African monsoon system of such differences needs to be investigated by coupling ORCH-mil to a climate model: first results from such an experiment will be presented.

  13. Impact of biodiversity-climate futures on primary production and metabolism in a model benthic estuarine system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaelli Dave

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the effects of anthropogenically-driven changes in global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and biodiversity on the functionality of marine ecosystems is crucial for predicting and managing the associated impacts. Coastal ecosystems are important sources of carbon (primary production to shelf waters and play a vital role in global nutrient cycling. These systems are especially vulnerable to the effects of human activities and will be the first areas impacted by rising sea levels. Within these coastal ecosystems, microalgal assemblages (microphytobenthos: MPB are vital for autochthonous carbon fixation. The level of in situ production by MPB mediates the net carbon cycling of transitional ecosystems between net heterotrophic or autotrophic metabolism. In this study, we examine the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (370, 600, and 1000 ppmv, temperature (6°C, 12°C, and 18°C and invertebrate biodiversity on MPB biomass in experimental systems. We assembled communities of three common grazing invertebrates (Hydrobia ulvae, Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor in monoculture and in all possible multispecies combinations. This experimental design specifically addresses interactions between the selected climate change variables and any ecological consequences caused by changes in species composition or richness. Results The effects of elevated CO2 concentration, temperature and invertebrate diversity were not additive, rather they interacted to determine MPB biomass, and overall this effect was negative. Diversity effects were underpinned by strong species composition effects, illustrating the importance of individual species identity. Conclusions Overall, our findings suggest that in natural systems, the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and any associated changes in invertebrate assemblage structure are likely to reduce MPB biomass. Furthermore

  14. A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Lau, K.-M.; Li, X.; Chou, M.-D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

  15. Persistent Cold States of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in an Intermediate Coupled Model and a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, N.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.

    2014-12-01

    The tropical Pacific Ocean has persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Niño events or very few weak El Niño events. These have been shown to cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics[i], including the major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and may also be responsible for modulating the global mean surface temperature[ii]. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity - the Zebiak-Cane model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1 - are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak-Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that the cool mean state is modestly predictable, while the lack of El Niño events during these cool periods is not. These results have implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts. Further, we apply this method of using an ensemble of model simulations with perturbed initial states to make retrospective forecasts and to forecast the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest, albeit with low confidence, that the current cool mean state will persist. This could imply the continuation of the drier than normal conditions that have, in general, afflicted southwest North America since the 1997/98 El Niño, as well as the current pause in global warming. [i] C. Herweijer and R. Seager, "The global footprint of persistent extra-tropical drought in the instrumental era," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 28, pp. 1761-1774, 2008. [ii] G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster, J. T. Fasullo, A. Hu and K. E. Trenberth, "Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods," Nature Climate Change, vol. 1, pp. 360

  16. Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping; Ruby Leung, L.; Grear, Molly

    2016-08-22

    This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model was able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.

  17. A Python Implementation of an Intermediate-Level Tropical Circulation Model and Implications for How Modeling Science is Done

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiledlanguages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionalityavailable with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Pythonto create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran, to optimize model performance but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

  18. Regeneration in natural and logged tropical rain forest : modelling seed dispersal and regeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulft, Lambertus Henricus van

    2004-01-01

    Regeneration and disturbance are thought to play key roles in the maintenance of the high tree species diversity in tropical rain forests. Nevertheless, the earliest stages in the regeneration of tropical rain forest trees, from seed production to established seedlings, have received little attenti

  19. TEK and biodiversity management in agroforestry systems of different socio-ecological contexts of the Tehuacán Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo-Ramos, Mariana; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro

    2016-07-22

    Transformation of natural ecosystems into intensive agriculture is a main factor causing biodiversity loss worldwide. Agroforestry systems (AFS) may maintain biodiversity, ecosystem benefits and human wellbeing, they have therefore high potential for concealing production and conservation. However, promotion of intensive agriculture and disparagement of TEK endanger their permanence. A high diversity of AFS still exist in the world and their potentialities vary with the socio-ecological contexts. We analysed AFS in tropical, temperate, and arid environments, of the Tehuacan Valley, Mexico, to investigate how their capacity varies to conserve biodiversity and role of TEK influencing differences in those contexts. We hypothesized that biodiversity in AFS is related to that of forests types associated and the vigour of TEK and management. We conducted studies in a matrix of environments and human cultures in the Tehuacán Valley. In addition, we reviewed, systematized and compared information from other regions of Mexico and the world with comparable socio-ecological contexts in order to explore possible general patterns. Our study found from 26 % to nearly 90 % of wild plants species richness conserved in AFS, the decreasing proportion mainly associated to pressures for intensifying agricultural production and abandoning traditional techniques. Native species richness preserved in AFS is influenced by richness existing in the associated forests, but the main driver is how people preserve benefits of components and functions of ecosystems. Elements of modern agricultural production may coexist with traditional management patterns, but imposition of modern models may break possible balances. TEK influences decisions on what and how modern techniques may be advantageous for preserving biodiversity, ecosystem integrity in AFS and people's wellbeing. TEK, agroecology and other sciences may interact for maintaining and improving traditional AFS to increase biodiversity

  20. Palaeoclimatic conditions during the last tree centuries in the tropical Andes inferred from two glaciological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomelli, V.; Blard, P.; Favier, V.; Pavlova, I.; Brunstein, D.; Soruco, A.; Grancher, D.

    2008-12-01

    Tropical glaciers are considered to be especially sensitive to climate change and thus offer an attractive proxy for palaeoclimatic conditions. Here we present temperature and precipitation changes during the last three centuries inferred from two different glaciological models applied on three glaciers selected in Bolivia and in Ecuador. Both models used glaciological parameters such as Equilibrium line Altitude, length, surface- area, and volume variations that were estimated from paleo glaciers documented with moraine records. Moraines were mapped with a GPS field survey and dated by lichenometry using the already published generalized extreme value approach. Climate changes were analyzed for different dates such as 1730, 1800, 1880 and 1956. Climatic reconstructions were firstly based on the modelling of past glacier extensions using a coupling of an ice melt model (to calculate the glacier mass balance) with an ice flow model. The second alternative approach was based on Area-Altitude balance ratio model. Once the models are adequately calibrated, starting from the present conditions, temperature and precipitation have just to be simultaneously changed in order to make the glaciers grow and advance until their past positions are documented by the successive old moraines. Both models revealed cool (about 0.8-1°C colder than today) and wet conditions during the 18th century (about 30% higher accumulation than today) followed by a short drier but colder period at the beginning of the 19th century. The observed reduction of Andean glaciers from the middle of the 19th century is due to a combination of increasingly warmer and drier conditions than before.

  1. Soil and biomass carbon pools in model communities of tropical plants under elevated CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnone, J A; Körner, Ch

    1995-09-01

    The experimental data presented here relate to the question of whether terrestrial ecosystems will sequester more C in their soils, litter and biomass as atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise. Similar to our previous study with relatively fertile growth conditions (Körner and Arnone 1992), we constructed four rather nutrient-limited model communities of moist tropical plant species in greenhouses (approximately 7 m(2) each). Plant communities were composed of seven species (77 individuals per community) representing major taxonomic groups and various life forms found in the moist tropics. Two ecosystems were exposed to 340 μl CO2 l(-1) and two to 610 μl l(-1) for 530 days of humid tropical growth conditions. In order to permit precise determination of C deposition in the soil, plant communities were initially established in C-free unwashed quartz sand. Soils were then amended with known amounts of organic matter (containing C and nutrients). Mineral nutrients were also supplied over the course of the experiment as timed-release full-balance fertilizer pellets. Soils represented by far the largest repositories for fixed C in all ecosystems. Almost 5 times more C (ca. 80% of net C fixation) was sequestered in the soil than in the biomass, but this did not differ between CO2 treatments. In addition, at the whole-ecosystem level we found a remarkably small and statistically non-significant increase in C sequestration (+4%; the sum of C accretion in the soil, biomass, litter and necromass). Total community biomass more than quadrupled during the experiment, but at harvest was, on average, only 8% greater (i.e. 6% per year; n.s.) under elevated CO2, mainly due to increased root biomass (+15%, P=0.12). Time courses of leaf area index of all ecosystems suggested that canopy expansion was approaching steady state by the time systems were harvested. Net primary productivity (NPP) of all ecosystems-i.e. annual accumulation of biomass, necromass, and leaf litter (but not

  2. Improving climate model simulation of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature: The importance of enhanced vertical atmosphere model resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the inaccurate simulation of tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST), known as the TA SST bias. It has far-reaching consequences for climate prediction in that area as it goes along, among others, with erroneous precipitation patterns. We show that the TA SST bias can be largely reduced by increasing both the atmospheric horizontal and vertical resolutions in a climate model. At high horizontal resolution, enhanced vertical resolution is indispensable to substantially improve the simulation of TA SST by enhancing surface wind stress. This also reduces biases in the upper ocean thermal structure and precipitation patterns. Although, enhanced horizontal resolution alone leads to some improvement in the mean climate, typical bias patterns characterized by a reversed zonal SST gradient at the equator and too warm SST in the Benguela upwelling region are mostly unchanged at a coarser vertical resolution.

  3. Reaction norm model to describe environmental sensitivity across first lactation in dairy cattle under tropical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bignardi, Annaiza Braga; El Faro, Lenira; Pereira, Rodrigo Junqueira; Ayres, Denise Rocha; Machado, Paulo Fernando; de Albuquerque, Lucia Galvão; Santana, Mário Luiz

    2015-10-01

    Reaction norm models have been widely used to study genotype by environment interaction (G × E) in animal breeding. The objective of this study was to describe environmental sensitivity across first lactation in Brazilian Holstein cows using a reaction norm approach. A total of 50,168 individual monthly test day (TD) milk yields (10 test days) from 7476 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. The statistical models for all traits (10 TDs and for 305-day milk yield) included the fixed effects of contemporary group, age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect), except for 305-day milk yield. A hierarchical reaction norm model (HRNM) based on the unknown covariate was used. The present study showed the presence of G × E in milk yield across first lactation of Holstein cows. The variation in the heritability estimates implies differences in the response to selection depending on the environment where the animals of this population are evaluated. In the average environment, the heritabilities for all traits were rather similar, in range from 0.02 to 0.63. The scaling effect of G × E predominated throughout most of lactation. Particularly during the first 2 months of lactation, G × E caused reranking of breeding values. It is therefore important to include the environmental sensitivity of animals according to the phase of lactation in the genetic evaluations of Holstein cattle in tropical environments.

  4. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  5. Modelling Tropical Cyclones-Ocean interactions: the role of the Atmophere - Ocean coupling frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The interaction between Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and ocean is a major mechanism responsible for energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. TCs affect the thermal and dynamical structure of the ocean, but the magnitude of the impact is still uncertain. Very few CMIP5 models demonstrated ability in representing TCs, mainly due to their horizontal resolution. We aim to improve TCs representation in next CMIPs experiments through the new CMCC-CM2VHR General Circulation Model, having a horizontal resolution of 1/4 degree in both atmospheric and ocean components. The model is capable to represent realistically TCs up to Cat-5 Typhoons. A good representation of the TC-Ocean interaction strongly depends on the coupling frequency between the atmospheric and the ocean components. In this work, we found that a better representation of the negative Sea Surface Temperature - TC induced feedback, through a high (hourly) coupling frequency, ensures the reduction of the TC induced Power Dissipation Index (PDI) bias of one order of magnitude. In addition, a cat-5 storm case study is deeply investigated also in terms of TC effects on the deep ocean.

  6. Modelling tropical cyclone hazards under climate change scenario using geospatial techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M. A.; Phinn, S.; Roelfsema, C.; Childs, I.

    2016-11-01

    Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. As the intensity and frequency of cyclones will increase under the most likely future climate change scenarios, appropriate approaches at local scales (1-5 km) are essential for producing sufficiently detailed hazard models. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. This study developed and tested a hazard modelling approach for cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila, a 151 km2 local government area in coastal Bangladesh. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering model integrating historical cyclone data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to generate the cyclone hazard maps for different cyclone return periods. Frequency analysis was carried out using historical cyclone data (1960--2015) to calculate the storm surge heights of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods of cyclones. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. Our results showed that cyclone affected areas increased with the increase of return periods. Around 63% of study area was located in the moderate to very high hazard zones for 50 year return period, while it was 70% for 100 year return period. The climate change scenarios increased the cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in every return period. Our findings indicate this approach has potential to model the cyclone hazards for developing mitigation plans and strategies to reduce the future impacts of cyclones.

  7. Exploration of monitoring and modelling agrobiodiversity : from indicator development towards modelling biodiversity in agricultural systems on the sub-specific level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buiteveld, J.; Veller, van M.G.P.; Hiemstra, S.J.; Brink, ten B.; Tekelenburg, T.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this project is to contribute to the development of a number of key biodiversity indicators for crops and livestock in agriculture. On a global level both for crop and livestock species there has been a general tendency towards uniformity in the culture of crops and livestock produc

  8. Possible Origin of Stagnation and Variability of Earth's Biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Stollmeier, Frank; Geisel, Theo; Nagler, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The magnitude and variability of Earth's biodiversity have puzzled scientists ever since paleontologic fossil databases became available. We identify and study a model of interdependent species where both endogenous and exogenous impacts determine the nonstationary extinction dynamics. The framework provides an explanation for the qualitative difference of marine and continental biodiversity growth. In particular, the stagnation of marine biodiversity may result from a global transition from ...

  9. Linking benthic biodiversity and environmental conditions at the sea floor combining statistical and mechanistic modeling. Case study on the Black Sea's northwestern shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drion, Roxanne; Capet, Arthur; Gregoire, Marilaure

    2014-05-01

    The preservation of the health and biodiversity of benthic ecosystems is a crucial priority in order to achieve the Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine waters. The multiple pressures acting on the ocean, and in particular, on the coastal zone may prevent the maintenance of biodiversity either directly (e.g. trawling, dredging) or indirectly by modifying environmental conditions at the sea floor (e.g. eutrophication, pollution, acidification, warming). The management of the GES of the benthos in a changing environment and the definition of management strategies (e.g. nutrient reduction) that would preserve GES require tools able to predict the modifications of environmental conditions and to link these modifications to the status of the benthic system. Coupled biogeochemical-circulation models provide a large amount of information on physical (e.g. currents, salinity, temperature, shear stress) and biochemical conditions (e.g. oxygen, inorganic nutrients, sinking detritus) but cannot provide an information on species richness. We propose to link these aspects by applying canonical ordination techniques (e.g. Redundancy Analysis, CoInertia Analysis) on a large data set on macrobenthos collected on the Black Sea's north-western shelf with in-situ sediment data (e.g. granulometry, carbon and nitrogen content, C/N ratio, CaCO3 content) and bottom conditions (e.g. shear stress, level of oxygen stress, flux of organic matter to the sediments) provided by a three dimensional model. Beyond taxonomic description, the analysis is performed on the functional composition of the macrobenthos: A trait-based approach is used to assess the functional composition of the macrobenthos by associating the considered species to a list of biological, ecological and behavioral traits. This approach allows to appraise how local conditions determine the functional and taxonomical diversity and provides a mean to evaluate the impact of habitat alteration on the ecological role of

  10. Understanding and modeling the physical processes that govern the melting of snow cover in a tropical mountain environment in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagnon, P.; Lafaysse, M.; Lejeune, Y.; Maisincho, L.; Rojas, M.; Chazarin, J. P.

    2009-10-01

    The ISBA/CROCUS coupled ground-snow model developed for the Alps and subsequently adapted to the outer tropical conditions of Bolivia has been applied to a full set of meteorological data recorded at 4860 m above sea level on a moraine area in Ecuador (Antizana 15 glacier, 0°28'S; 78°09'W) between 16 June 2005 and 30 June 2006 to determine the physical processes involved in the melting and disappearance of transient snow cover in nonglaciated areas of the inner tropics. Although less accurate than in Bolivia, the model is still able to simulate snow behavior over nonglaciated natural surfaces, as long as the modeled turbulent fluxes over bare ground are reduced and a suitable function is included to represent the partitioning of the surface between bare soil and snow cover. The main difference between the two tropical sites is the wind velocity, which is more than 3 times higher at the Antizana site than at the Bolivian site, leading to a nonuniform spatial distribution of snow over nonglaciated areas that is hard to describe with a simple snow partitioning function. Net solar radiation dominates the surface energy balance and is responsible for the energy stored in snow-free areas (albedo = 0.05) and transferred horizontally to adjacent snow patches by conduction within the upper soil layers and by turbulent advection. These processes can prevent the snow cover from lasting more than a few hours or a few days. Sporadically, and at any time of the year, this inner tropical site, much wetter than the outer tropics, experiences heavy snowfalls, covering all the moraine area, and thus limiting horizontal transfers and inducing a significant time lag between precipitation events and runoff.

  11. Modeled sensitivity of upper thermocline properties to tropical cyclone winds and possible feedbacks on the Hadley circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Sriver, Ryan L.; Huber, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    The sensitivity of upper thermocline properties, and global climate, to tropical cyclone (TC) winds is examined using global ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. We combine seven years of global, satellite-based TC wind records with a standard surface wind input data set derived from reanalysis, and we apply idealized factors to TC winds in order to model the ocean's equilibrium response to increases in TC intensities. We find TC-induced vertical ocean mixing impacts upper thermoc...

  12. Application of satellite precipitation data to analyse and model arbovirus activity in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corner Robert J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus which is closely related to Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus and St. Louis encephalitis virus. MVEV is enzootic in northern Australia and Papua New Guinea and epizootic in other parts of Australia. Activity of MVEV in Western Australia (WA is monitored by detection of seroconversions in flocks of sentinel chickens at selected sample sites throughout WA. Rainfall is a major environmental factor influencing MVEV activity. Utilising data on rainfall and seroconversions, statistical relationships between MVEV occurrence and rainfall can be determined. These relationships can be used to predict MVEV activity which, in turn, provides the general public with important information about disease transmission risk. Since ground measurements of rainfall are sparse and irregularly distributed, especially in north WA where rainfall is spatially and temporally highly variable, alternative data sources such as remote sensing (RS data represent an attractive alternative to ground measurements. However, a number of competing alternatives are available and careful evaluation is essential to determine the most appropriate product for a given problem. Results The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 product was chosen from a range of RS rainfall products to develop rainfall-based predictor variables and build logistic regression models for the prediction of MVEV activity in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of WA. Two models employing monthly time-lagged rainfall variables showed the strongest discriminatory ability of 0.74 and 0.80 as measured by the Receiver Operating Characteristics area under the curve (ROC AUC. Conclusions TMPA data provide a state-of-the-art data source for the development of rainfall-based predictive models for Flavivirus activity in tropical WA. Compared to

  13. Funding begets biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil David; Gereau, Roy E.

    2011-01-01

    . Cross-correlation analysis showed that funding is likely to be driving conservation priorities and not vice versa. It was also apparent that investment itself may trigger further investments as a result of reduced start-up costs for new projects in areas where infrastructure already exists......Aim Effective conservation of biodiversity relies on an unbiased knowledge of its distribution. Conservation priority assessments are typically based on the levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Areas identified as important receive the majority of conservation investments, often....... It is therefore difficult to establish whether funding, perceived biodiversity, or both drive further funding. However, in all cases, the results suggest that regional assessments of biodiversity conservation importance may be biased by investment. Funding effects might also confound studies on mechanisms...

  14. Business and biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Meyer; Lehmann, Martin; Christensen, Per

    is the challenge of engaging businesses in responsible actions. The core challenge is to create awareness of the environmental phenomenon biodiversity, inform about the significance of business involvement, and encourage the business world to participate in this process of protecting biodiversity as the valuable...... - a challenge that needs to be shared between conservationists, green organisations, public authorities, as well as the private sector. A new wave of green initiatives has emerged within the culture of business and marketing. The reasons for why businesses should engage in environmental actions are many......, but the effort has until now considered biodiversity actions relatively little, compared to other areas such as e.g. climate related actions. Nevertheless, the opportunity for businesses to meet their responsibilities and lift a share of the challenge is far from being just a romantic thought. Nor...

  15. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  16. Satellite altimetry and hydrologic modeling of poorly-gauged tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistioadi, Yohanes Budi

    Fresh water resources are critical for daily human consumption. Therefore, a continuous monitoring effort over their quantity and quality is instrumental. One important model for water quantity monitoring is the rainfall-runoff model, which represents the response of a watershed to the variability of precipitation, thus estimating the discharge of a channel (Bedient and Huber, 2002, Beven, 2012). Remote sensing and satellite geodetic observations are capable to provide critical hydrological parameters, which can be used to support hydrologic modeling. For the case of satellite radar altimetry, limited temporal resolutions (e.g., satellite revisit period) prohibit the use of this method for a short (less than weekly) interval monitoring of water level or discharge. On the other hand, the current satellite radar altimeter footprints limit the water level measurement for rivers wider than 1 km (Birkett, 1998, Birkett et al., 2002). Some studies indeed reported successful retrieval of water level for small-size rivers as narrow as 80 m (Kuo and Kao, 2011, Michailovsky et al., 2012); however, the processing of current satellite altimetry signals for small water bodies to retrieve accurate water levels, remains challenging. To address this scientific challenge, this study poses two main objectives: (1) to monitor small (40--200 m width) and medium-sized (200--800 m width) rivers and lakes using satellite altimetry through identification and choice of the over-water radar waveforms corresponding to the appropriately waveform-retracked water level; and (2) to develop a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to represent the response of mesoscale watershed to the variability of precipitation. Both studies address the humid tropics of Southeast Asia, specifically in Indonesia, where similar studies do not yet exist. This study uses the Level 2 radar altimeter measurements generated by European Space Agency's (ESA's) Envisat (Environmental Satellite) mission. The first study

  17. The Distribution and Variability of Simulated Chlorophyll Concentration over the Tropical Indian Ocean from Five CMIP5 Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Lin; FENG Lin; YU Weidong; WANG Huiwu; LIU Yanliang; SUN Shuangwen

    2013-01-01

    Performances of 5 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated.Results show that these models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed chlorophyll concentration and reproduce the maximum chlorophyll concentration over the western part of the Arabian Sea,around the tip of the Indian subcontinent,and in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean.The seasonal evolution of chlorophyll concentration over these regions is also reproduced with significant amplitude diversity among models.All of 5 models is able to simulate the interannual variability of chlorophyll concentration.The maximum interannual variation occurs at the same regions where the maximum climatological chlorophyll concentration is located.Further analysis also reveals that the Indian Ocean Dipole events have great impact on chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Indian Ocean.In the general successful simulation of chlorophyll concentration,most of the CMIP5 models present higher than normal chlorophyll concentration in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

  18. Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

  19. Biodiversity effects of elevated CO{sub 2} in species-rich model communities from the semi-arid Negev of Israel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grunzweig, J.M. [Weismann Inst. Sci., Dept. Environm. Sci. and Energy Res., Rehovot (Israel); Korner, C. [Univ. Basel, Inst. Bot., Basel (Switzerland)

    2002-10-01

    Species-specific responses to atmospheric CO2 enrichment may affect biodiversity, which in turn may alter ecosystem functioning. Here we have explored biodiversity effects in model assemblages of semi-arid grassland of the northern Negev, Israel, at 280 ppm (pre-industrial era), 440 ppm (early 21st century) and 600 ppm CO{sub 2} (mid to late 21st century). Thirty-two mostly annual species were grown together in large containers (ca 400 kg each) on native soil and under a dynamic simulation of the Negev winter climate, CO{sub 2} enrichment increased concentrations of total non-structural carbohydrates and C/N ratios, and reduced specific leaf area and nitrogen concentrations in leaves of all species. In contrast to these uniform CO{sub 2} effects on leaf quality. biomass and reproductive output remained unchanged in most species, and varied greatly among the few responsive ones ( - 80 to + 145%). Biomass was significantly increased at elevated CO2 in Onobrychis crista-galli (one of the six legume species) and was reduced in Biscutella didyma (Brassicaceae). Seed yield increased in three out of six legumes and in the root hemiparasite Parentucellia flaviflora. and decreased in the grass Aegilops peregrina. Fruit dry matter tended to be reduced in two Brassicaceae. Onobrychis, the largest and most responsive species present, was the most 'mesic' legume, and might have profited most from the higher soil moisture induced by CO{sub 2} enrichment. The significant CO{sub 2} response of only 5-6 out of 32 species, in particular their altered seed yield, suggests a potential shift in biodiversity. In a future CO{sub 2}-enriched atmosphere. 'mesic' legumes and root hemiparasites might be favored. while some Brassicaceae and grasses might decline. As indicated by significant 280- vs 440-ppm differences. reductions in leaf nitrogen concentration of grasses and legumes are likely to be under way right now, and may negatively affect grazers. Altered seed

  20. 吊罗山国家森林公园热带雨林不同恢复阶段群落结构与生物多样性比较研究%Comparative Study on the Community Structure and Biodiversity of Tropical Rain Forest at Different Restoration Stages in Diaoluo Mountain National Forest Park

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷云翰

    2013-01-01

    By the methods of community structure analysis,forest resources monitoring and biodiversity analysis,tropical rain forest plots at 3 different recovery stages in Diaoluo Mountain National Forest Park of Hainan province were investigated.The 3 plots located in tropical rainforest restored in 1960s,tropical rainforest restored in 1970s,and virgin rainforest respectively and were with the same area.From the starting point of dominant species of community,the variation of characteristics of community structure and species composition,plant species richness and diversity of the 3 plots were discussed.Results showed that with the process of time,the difference of dominant species in the 3 plots was increasing.The average tree height and clear bole height of arbor in the rainforest plot restored in 1970s were higher than that in the other 2 plots.The DBH (diameter at breast height) of virgin rainforest trees was greater than that of the other 2 plots.Comparatively,the species richness was the biggest in virgin rainforest,while was equal in rainforest restored in 1960s,and rainforest restored in 1970s; the species diversity index and evenness index of the virgin rainforest was the biggest; and ecological dominance was similar with that of the other 2 plots,thus the biodiversity of virgin rainforest was the highest.The biodiversity indexes of rainforest restored in 1970s were greater than those of rainforest restored in 1960s,so its biodiversity was higher than that of rainforest restored in 1960s.Overall,the species richness and biodiversity of the 3 plots was with little difference.%采用植物群落结构分析、森林资源监测及生物多样性分析方法,对海南省吊罗山国家森林公园3个不同恢复阶段的热带雨林样地进行调查研究,3个样地分别位于20世纪60年代恢复的热带雨林、70年代恢复的热带雨林、原始热带雨林内,样地面积一致.以群落的优势种为出发点,探讨了3个样地的群落种类组成与

  1. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Induced Inland Flooding at Tar Pamlico River Basin of North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qianhong

    Landfalling tropical cyclones often produce heavy precipitation and result in river and flash floods. Such floods can not only cause loss of human lives and properties, but also lead to ecological disasters in the affected watershed areas, estuaries and coastal waters. In order to better understand and simulate large coastal watershed hydrology and hydro-meteorological processes associated with tropical cyclones (TC) - induced inland flooding, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model (AnnAGNPS) have been employed in this study. The study focuses on four major hydro-meteorological identities and their interactions: 1) previous rainfall events, 2) synoptic atmospheric environment, 3) landfalling hurricane, and 4) surface and ground water hydrology. The research is divided into two parts. Part one focuses on the investigation of the impacts of previous rainfall events on watershed surface runoff while part two studies the impacts of the synoptic atmospheric environment on landfalling hurricanes and the resulting effect on surface runoff. Hurricane Floyd was chosen in this study as a special case because it produced massive flooding as a result of the combined effects of previous rainfall events from Hurricane Dennis and the synoptic atmospheric environment. The modeling results indicate that the AnnAGNPS model performs well in predicting the total amount of watershed runoff. However Muskingum channel routing is needed for AnnAGNPS to improve the hydrographs of flow discharge during hurricane events. Sensitivity analysis of soil saturated hydrological conductivity (Ks) indicates that both base flow and event total runoff are sensitive to Ks. Base flow increases as Ks increases when K s ≥15 m/day, but slightly decreases when K s > 15 m/day which is out of assumption of linear relationship from Darcy's law. Peak runoff exponentially decreases as Ks increases. The results show that without the

  2. Knowledge Transposition from Tropical Fish Serum Proteins to Fundamental Education Students Through Biochemical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V.M. Maciel de Carvalho

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The subject was represented and discussed at The National Week of Science and Technology, UFPE, an initiative from The Ministry of Science and Technology to encourage children and people in science and technology activities. The work aimed to renew the importance to transmit knowledge from simple, imaginative, biochemical models and interactive teaching. The stand tool contained an aquarium with fishes, five scale models showing peptide bond, carbohydrate inhibited lectin molecule, hemagglutination reaction, lectin-bacterium surface interaction and enzyme-substract-inhibitor. Posters described tropical fish importance and methods applied to obtain fish serum and organs to purify lectins and protein inhibitors as well as to extract tissue DNA; notions were transmitted on fish immunology and diseases. The students were attracted and impressed with the exotic fishes most cultivated in Brazil; they asked if it is necessary to kill the fish to extract lectin and about lectin importance. Students were also interested to know if all fish enzyme/inhibitors are favorable to the own fish organism. The work succeeded to inform and stimulate future scientists in the field and to awake their scientific curiosity.

  3. A model intercomparison of the tropical precipitation response to a CO2 doubling in aquaplanet simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Jeongbin; Kang, Sarah M.; Merlis, Timothy M.

    2017-01-01

    In the present-day climate, the mean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is north of the equator. We investigate changes in the ITCZ latitude under global warming, using multiple atmospheric models coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean. The reference climate, with a warmer north from prescribed ocean heating, is perturbed by doubling CO2. Most models exhibit a northward ITCZ shift, but the shift cannot be accounted for by the response of energy flux equator where the atmospheric energy transport (FA) vanishes. The energetics of the simulated circulation shifts are subtle: changes in the efficiency with which the Hadley circulation transports energy, the total gross moist stability (Δm), dominate over mass flux changes in determining δFA. Even when δFA ≈ 0, the ITCZ can shift significantly due to changes in Δm, which have often been neglected previously. The dependence of ITCZ responses on δΔm calls for improved understanding of the physics determining the tropical Δm.

  4. Global well-posedness of strong solutions to a tropical climate model

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Jinkai

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the Cauchy problem to the TROPIC CLIMATE MODEL derived by Frierson-Majda-Pauluis in [Comm. Math. Sci, Vol. 2 (2004)] which is a coupled system of the barotropic and the first baroclinic modes of the velocity and the typical midtropospheric temperature. The system considered in this paper has viscosities in the momentum equations, but no diffusivity in the temperature equation. We establish here the global well-posedness of strong solutions to this model. In proving the global existence of strong solutions, to overcome the difficulty caused by the absence of the diffusivity in the temperature equation, we introduce a new velocity $w$ (called the pseudo baroclinic velocity), which has more regularities than the original baroclinic mode of the velocity. An auxiliary function $\\phi$, which looks like the effective viscous flux for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, is also introduced to obtain the $L^\\infty$ bound of the temperature. Regarding the uniqueness, we use the idea of p...

  5. Modelling the vertical distribution of bromoform in the upper water column of the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Hense

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The relative importance of potential source and sink terms for bromoform (CHBr3 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is investigated with a coupled physical-biogeochemical water column model. Bromoform production is either assumed to be linked to primary production or to phytoplankton losses; bromoform decay is treated as light dependent (photolysis, and in addition either vertically uniform, proportional to remineralisation or to nitrification. All experiments lead to the observed subsurface maximum of bromoform, corresponding to the subsurface phytoplankton biomass maximum. In the surface mixed layer, the concentration is set by entrainment from below, photolysis in the upper few meters and the outgassing to the atmosphere. The assumed bromoform production mechanism has only minor effects on the solution, but the various loss terms lead to significantly different bromoform concentrations below 200 m depth. The best agreement with observations is obtained when the bromoform decay is coupled to nitrification (parameterised by an inverse proportionality to the light field. Our model results reveal a pronounced seasonal cycle of bromoform outgassing, with a minimum in summer and a maximum in early winter, when the deepening surface mixed layer reaches down into the bromoform production layer.

  6. Modelling the vertical distribution of bromoform in the upper water column of the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Hense

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The relative importance of potential source and sink terms for bromoform (CHBr3 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is investigated with a coupled physical-biogeochemical water column model. Bromoform production is either assumed to be linked to primary production or to phytoplankton losses; bromoform decay is treated as light dependent (photolysis, and in addition either vertically uniform, proportional to remineralisation or to nitrification. All experiments lead to the observed subsurface maximum of bromoform, corresponding to the subsurface phytoplankton biomass maximum. In the surface mixed layer, the concentration is set by entrainment from below, photolysis in the upper few meters and the outgassing to the atmosphere. The assumed bromoform production mechanism has only minor effects on the solution, but the various loss terms lead to significantly different bromoform concentrations below 200 m depth. The best agreement with observations is obtained when the bromoform decay is coupled to nitrification (parameterised by an inverse proportionality to the light field. Our model results reveal a pronounced seasonal cycle of bromoform outgassing, with a minimum in summer and a maximum in early winter, when the deepening surface mixed layer reaches down into the bromoform production layer.

  7. North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Timothy; Yonekura, Emmi

    2013-01-01

    A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

  8. Operationalizing biodiversity for conservation planning

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sahotra Sarkar; Chris Margules

    2002-07-01

    Biodiversity has acquired such a general meaning that people now find it difficult to pin down a precise sense for planning and policy-making aimed at biodiversity conservation. Because biodiversity is rooted in place, the task of conserving biodiversity should target places for conservation action; and because all places contain biodiversity, but not all places can be targeted for action, places have to be prioritized. What is needed for this is a measure of the extent to which biodiversity varies from place to place. We do not need a precise measure of biodiversity to prioritize places. Relative estimates of similarity or difference can be derived using partial measures, or what have come to be called biodiversity surrogates. Biodiversity surrogates are supposed to stand in for general biodiversity in planning applications. We distinguish between true surrogates, those that might truly stand in for general biodiversity, and estimator surrogates, which have true surrogates as their target variable. For example, species richness has traditionally been the estimator surrogate for the true surrogate, species diversity. But species richness does not capture the differences in composition between places; the essence of biodiversity. Another measure, called complementarity, explicitly captures the differences between places as we iterate the process of place prioritization, starting with an initial place. The relative concept of biodiversity built into the definition of complementarity has the level of precision needed to undertake conservation planning.

  9. Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Presas, M; Carbayo, F; Rozas, J; Riutort, M

    2011-04-01

    The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  10. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Rowland

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model–data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI, net photosynthesis (An and stomatal conductance (gs. Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models. Across the models, the response of An to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C colder, closer to the model optima for gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the An–gs relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the An–gs relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling

  11. A physically based approach to model LAI from MODIS 250 m data in a tropical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Propastin, Pavel; Erasmi, Stefan

    2010-02-01

    A time series of leaf area index (LAI) has been developed based on 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m resolution (MOD250_LAI). The MOD250_LAI product uses a physical radiative transfer model which establishes a relationship between LAI, fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) and given patterns of surface reflectance, view-illumination conditions and optical properties of vegetation. In situ measurements of LAI and FVC made at 166 plots using hemispherical photography served for calibration of model parameters and validation of modelling results. Optical properties of vegetation cover, summarized by the light extinction coefficient, were computed at the local (pixel) level based on empirical models between ground-measured tree crown architecture at 85 sampling plots and spectral values in Landsat ETM+ bands. Influence of view-illumination conditions on optical properties of canopy was simulated by a view angle geometry model incorporating the solar zenith angle and the sensor viewing angle. The results revealed high compatibility of the produced MOD250_LAI data set with ground truth information and the 30 m resolution Landsat ETM+ LAI estimated using the similar algorithm. The produced MOD250_LAI was also compared with the global MODIS 1000-m LAI product (MOD15A2 LAI). Results show good consistency of the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics between the two LAI products. However, the results also showed that the annual LAI amplitude by the MOD15A2 product is significantly higher than by the MOD250_LAI. This higher amplitude is caused by a considerable underestimation of the tropical rainforest LAI by the MOD15A2 during the seasonal phases of low leaf production.

  12. Toward forward modeling for paleoclimatic proxy signal calibration: A case study with oxygen isotopic composition of tropical woods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.

    2007-07-01

    A forward model of the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of wood cellulose is parameterized for time series prediction in tropical environments and driven with meteorological data observed at La Selva Biological Research Station, Costa Rica, for 1985-2001. Monthly-resolution model results correlate modestly (r = 0.34, p Selva suggests that isotopic variations are strongly controlled by rainfall amount. The model simulates an analogous but stronger than observed negative isotopic anomaly associated with positive July-September rainfall anomalies during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm phase event years. Simulated tree isotope data for the global tropics suggest that a network of well-replicated data series from selected locations may resolve the large-scale precipitation anomaly pattern associated with ENSO.

  13. Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Cruz, Francisco W; Wang, Xianfeng; Edwards, R Lawrence; d'Horta, Fernando M; Ribas, Camila C; Vuille, Mathias; Stott, Lowell D; Auler, Augusto S

    2013-01-01

    Precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in Amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. Here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern Amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. Although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical-subtropical South America, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. During the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western Amazonia but a significant drying in eastern Amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western Amazonia, contrary to 'Refugia Hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. In contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern Amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.

  14. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  15. Tropical malabsorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramakrishna, B S; Venkataraman, S; Mukhopadhya, A

    2006-01-01

    Malabsorption is an important clinical problem both in visitors to the tropics and in native residents of tropical countries. Infections of the small intestine are the most important cause of tropical malabsorption. Protozoal infections cause malabsorption in immunocompetent hosts, but do so more commonly in the setting of immune deficiency. Helminth infections occasionally cause malabsorption or protein‐losing enteropathy. Intestinal tuberculosis, chronic pancreatitis and small‐bowel bacterial overgrowth are important causes of tropical malabsorption. In recent years, inflammatory bowel disease and coeliac disease have become major causes of malabsorption in the tropics. Sporadic tropical sprue is still an important cause of malabsorption in adults and in children in South Asia. Investigations to exclude specific infective, immunological or inflammatory causes are important before considering tropical sprue as a diagnosis. This article briefly reviews the management of tropical sprue and presents an algorithm for its investigation and management. PMID:17148698

  16. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2013-08-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. Several parameterizations of two possible distributions are calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burned area map, and compared. The tapered Pareto model most accurately simulates the total area burnt (only 3.5 km2 larger than the recorded 16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using MODIS MCD14ML fire counts, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but produces generally higher estimates than the GFED3.1 burnt area product, suggesting higher pan-tropical carbon emissions from fires than previously estimated.

  17. A Review of Soil Erosion Models with Special Reference to the needs of Humid Tropical Mountainous Environments

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    Augustine Avwunudiogba

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Humid tropical mountainous environments (HTMEs are generally considered sensitive ecological regions because anthropogenic disturbance often accelerate hillslope processes such as runoff, erosion, and sediment flux. Reducing accelerated erosion is necessary for the maintenance of the integrity, stability and sustainability of HTMEs. Soil erosion models (SOMs are potential tools for predicting soil erosion, sediment flux, and thedesign and assessment of effectiveness of conservation management practices in HTMEs. Within this context, this study provides a critical review of the available SOMs with afocus on their applicability in HTMEs. The review indicates that because most SOMs have been developed for “flat agricultural lands” in temperate regions, to be useful inconservation planning in HTMEs models should be calibrated for local conditions. For humid tropical mountainous regions, lumped parameter models (LPMs linked toGeographical Information Systems (GIS are more practicable for conservation planning than sophisticated distributed parameter models (DPMs. This is due to the less stringent data requirements and ease to which land managers can implement LPMs, an essential consideration within the physical and socioeconomic context of HTMEs.Keywords:Soil erosion models; Humid tropics, Mountainous environments; Conservation planning

  18. Piomiosite tropical Tropical pyomyositis

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    Nilton Ghiotti de Siqueira

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available A piomiosite tropical, apesar de ser uma patologia reconhecida em nosso meio há mais de cem anos, ainda é pouco divulgada no Brasil, e pode-se perder tempo e dinheiro em exames para afastar a possibilidade de tumores ou tratar sua incidência vem aumentando em regiões de clima temperado, devido à disseminação do Vírus da lmunodeticiência Humana e aos tratamentos imúnossupressivos. Apesar de realizado em instituições que muitas vezes não apresentam recursos diagnósticos de primeira linha, demonstramos que o tratamento pode ser adequado se houver experiência clínica e bom senso. São descritos quarenta casos de piomiosite tropical, atendidos consecutivamente por um mesmo cirurgião; a idade média dos pacientes foi de 16 anos e o sexo predominante o masculino. O diagnóstico foi clínico em 73% dos casos e o tratamento realizado foi drenagem por incisão direta sobre a massa, deixando dreno tubular, usado para irrigação do abscesso. O tempo médio de permanência do dreno no local foi de cinco dias, e a média de permanência hospitalar, sete dias. Dois casos (5% evoluíram para osteomielite e um caso foi a óbito. A evolução foi satisfatória em 93% dos pacientes.Tropical pyomyositis, although a recognized pathology for more than a century, is still poorly known in Brazil, and one could waste time and money on exams for negative diagnosis for tumors or inadequately treat a potentially fatal disease. Initially referred to as a tropical disease, its incidence is increasing in temperate regions due to the dissemination of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus and immunosuppressive treatments. In spite of our Institution frequently lacking quality diagnostic resources, we managed adequate treatment by using clinical experience and good judgement. A total of 40 cases of tropical pyomyositis are described, all treated by the same surgeon, with a mean age of 16 years, predominantly male. Clinical diagnosis was realized in 73% of the cases

  19. Economic prosperity, biodiversity conservation, and the environmental Kuznets curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Julianne H.; Waite, Thomas A. [Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University, 300 Aronoff Laboratory, 318 W. 12th Ave., Columbus, OH, 43210 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    Many conservationists contend that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are incompatible goals. Some economists contest this viewpoint, arguing that wealthier countries have the luxury of investing more heavily in efforts to conserve biodiversity. Under this assumption, we expect a U-shaped relationship between per capita wealth and proportion of species conserved. We test this environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using estimates of per capita income and deforestation rates (index of biodiversity threat) for 35 tropical countries. A prior analysis [Dietz, S., Adger, W.N., 2003. Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort. Journal of Environmental Management, 68:23-35] using conventional regression techniques failed to provide any support for the parabolic relationship predicted by the EKC hypothesis. Here, we introduce the use of quantile regression and spatial filtering to reanalyze this data, addressing issues of heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. We note that preliminary analysis using these methods provides some initial evidence for an EKC. However, a series of panel analyses with country-specific dummy variables eliminated or even reversed much of this support. A closer examination of conservation practices and environmental indicators within the countries, particularly those countries that drove our initial support, suggests that wealth is not a reliable indicator of improved conservation practice. Our findings indicate that an EKC for biodiversity is overly simplistic and further exploration is required to fully understand the mechanisms by which income affects biodiversity. (author)

  20. Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Cheung, Sam