Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bichon, Barron J.; McFarland, John M.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2011-01-01

Despite many advances in the field of computational reliability analysis, the efficient estimation of the reliability of a system with multiple failure modes remains a persistent challenge. Various sampling and analytical methods are available, but they typically require accepting a tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency. In this work, a surrogate-based approach is presented that simultaneously addresses the issues of accuracy, efficiency, and unimportant failure modes. The method is based on the creation of Gaussian process surrogate models that are required to be locally accurate only in the regions of the component limit states that contribute to system failure. This approach to constructing surrogate models is demonstrated to be both an efficient and accurate method for system-level reliability analysis. - Highlights: → Extends efficient global reliability analysis to systems with multiple failure modes. → Constructs locally accurate Gaussian process models of each response. → Highly efficient and accurate method for assessing system reliability. → Effectiveness is demonstrated on several test problems from the literature.

Modeling reliability of power systems substations by using stochastic automata networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Šnipas, Mindaugas; Radziukynas, Virginijus; Valakevičius, Eimutis

2017-01-01

In this paper, stochastic automata networks (SANs) formalism to model reliability of power systems substations is applied. The proposed strategy allows reducing the size of state space of Markov chain model and simplifying system specification. Two case studies of standard configurations of substations are considered in detail. SAN models with different assumptions were created. SAN approach is compared with exact reliability calculation by using a minimal path set method. Modeling results showed that total independence of automata can be assumed for relatively small power systems substations with reliable equipment. In this case, the implementation of Markov chain model by a using SAN method is a relatively easy task. - Highlights: • We present the methodology to apply stochastic automata network formalism to create Markov chain models of power systems. • The stochastic automata network approach is combined with minimal path sets and structural functions. • Two models of substation configurations with different model assumptions are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. • Modeling results of system with independent automata and functional transition rates are similar. • The conditions when total independence of automata can be assumed are addressed.

Designing the database for a reliability aware Model-Based System Engineering process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cressent, Robin; David, Pierre; Idasiak, Vincent; Kratz, Frederic

2013-01-01

This article outlines the need for a reliability database to implement model-based description of components failure modes and dysfunctional behaviors. We detail the requirements such a database should honor and describe our own solution: the Dysfunctional Behavior Database (DBD). Through the description of its meta-model, the benefits of integrating the DBD in the system design process is highlighted. The main advantages depicted are the possibility to manage feedback knowledge at various granularity and semantic levels and to ease drastically the interactions between system engineering activities and reliability studies. The compliance of the DBD with other reliability database such as FIDES is presented and illustrated. - Highlights: ► Model-Based System Engineering is more and more used in the industry. ► It results in a need for a reliability database able to deal with model-based description of dysfunctional behavior. ► The Dysfunctional Behavior Database aims to fulfill that need. ► It helps dealing with feedback management thanks to its structured meta-model. ► The DBD can profit from other reliability database such as FIDES.

Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

2003-01-01

The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

Modelling Reliability of Supply and Infrastructural Dependency in Energy Distribution Systems

OpenAIRE

Helseth, Arild

2008-01-01

This thesis presents methods and models for assessing reliability of supply and infrastructural dependency in energy distribution systems with multiple energy carriers. The three energy carriers of electric power, natural gas and district heating are considered. Models and methods for assessing reliability of supply in electric power systems are well documented, frequently applied in the industry and continuously being subject to research and improvement. On the contrary, there are compar...

System principles, mathematical models and methods to ensure high reliability of safety systems

Science.gov (United States)

Zaslavskyi, V.

2017-04-01

Modern safety and security systems are composed of a large number of various components designed for detection, localization, tracking, collecting, and processing of information from the systems of monitoring, telemetry, control, etc. They are required to be highly reliable in a view to correctly perform data aggregation, processing and analysis for subsequent decision making support. On design and construction phases of the manufacturing of such systems a various types of components (elements, devices, and subsystems) are considered and used to ensure high reliability of signals detection, noise isolation, and erroneous commands reduction. When generating design solutions for highly reliable systems a number of restrictions and conditions such as types of components and various constrains on resources should be considered. Various types of components perform identical functions; however, they are implemented using diverse principles, approaches and have distinct technical and economic indicators such as cost or power consumption. The systematic use of different component types increases the probability of tasks performing and eliminates the common cause failure. We consider type-variety principle as an engineering principle of system analysis, mathematical models based on this principle, and algorithms for solving optimization problems of highly reliable safety and security systems design. Mathematical models are formalized in a class of two-level discrete optimization problems of large dimension. The proposed approach, mathematical models, algorithms can be used for problem solving of optimal redundancy on the basis of a variety of methods and control devices for fault and defects detection in technical systems, telecommunication networks, and energy systems.

Reliability model for common mode failures in redundant safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.

1974-12-01

A method is presented for computing the reliability of redundant safety systems, considering both independent and common mode type failures. The model developed for the computation is a simple extension of classical reliability theory. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated with the use of an example. The probability of failure of a typical diesel-generator emergency power system is computed based on data obtained from U. S. diesel-generator operating experience. The results are compared with reliability predictions based on the assumption that all failures are independent. The comparison shows a significant increase in the probability of redundant system failure, when common failure modes are considered. (U.S.)

A new model for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems with non-homogeneous components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feizabadi, Mohammad; Jahromi, Abdolhamid Eshraghniaye

2017-01-01

In discussions related to reliability optimization using redundancy allocation, one of the structures that has attracted the attention of many researchers, is series-parallel structure. In models previously presented for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems, there is a restricting assumption based on which all components of a subsystem must be homogeneous. This constraint limits system designers in selecting components and prevents achieving higher levels of reliability. In this paper, a new model is proposed for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems, which makes possible the use of non-homogeneous components in each subsystem. As a result of this flexibility, the process of supplying system components will be easier. To solve the proposed model, since the redundancy allocation problem (RAP) belongs to the NP-hard class of optimization problems, a genetic algorithm (GA) is developed. The computational results of the designed GA are indicative of high performance of the proposed model in increasing system reliability and decreasing costs. - Highlights: • In this paper, a new model is proposed for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems. • In the previous models, there is a restricting assumption based on which all components of a subsystem must be homogeneous. • The presented model provides a possibility for the subsystems’ components to be non- homogeneous in the required conditions. • The computational results demonstrate the high performance of the proposed model in improving reliability and reducing costs.

Reliability model for helicopter main gearbox lubrication system using influence diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashid, H.S.J.; Place, C.S.; Mba, D.; Keong, R.L.C.; Healey, A.; Kleine-Beek, W.; Romano, M.

2015-01-01

The loss of oil from a helicopter main gearbox (MGB) leads to increased friction between components, a rise in component surface temperatures, and subsequent mechanical failure of gearbox components. A number of significant helicopter accidents have been caused due to such loss of lubrication. This paper presents a model to assess the reliability of helicopter MGB lubricating systems. Safety risk modeling was conducted for MGB oil system related accidents in order to analyse key failure mechanisms and the contributory factors. Thus, the dominant failure modes for lubrication systems and key contributing components were identified. The Influence Diagram (ID) approach was then employed to investigate reliability issues of the MGB lubrication systems at the level of primary causal factors, thus systematically investigating a complex context of events, conditions, and influences that are direct triggers of the helicopter MGB lubrication system failures. The interrelationships between MGB lubrication system failure types were thus identified, and the influence of each of these factors on the overall MGB lubrication system reliability was assessed. This paper highlights parts of the HELMGOP project, sponsored by the European Aviation Safety Agency to improve helicopter main gearbox reliability. - Highlights: • We investigated methods to optimize helicopter MGB oil system run-dry capability. • Used Influence Diagram to assess design and maintenance factors of MGB oil system. • Factors influencing overall MGB lubrication system reliability were identified. • This globally influences current and future helicopter MGB designs

System reliability time-dependent models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debernardo, H.D.

1991-06-01

A probabilistic methodology for safety system technical specification evaluation was developed. The method for Surveillance Test Interval (S.T.I.) evaluation basically means an optimization of S.T.I. of most important system's periodically tested components. For Allowed Outage Time (A.O.T.) calculations, the method uses system reliability time-dependent models (A computer code called FRANTIC III). A new approximation, which was called Independent Minimal Cut Sets (A.C.I.), to compute system unavailability was also developed. This approximation is better than Rare Event Approximation (A.E.R.) and the extra computing cost is neglectible. A.C.I. was joined to FRANTIC III to replace A.E.R. on future applications. The case study evaluations verified that this methodology provides a useful probabilistic assessment of surveillance test intervals and allowed outage times for many plant components. The studied system is a typical configuration of nuclear power plant safety systems (two of three logic). Because of the good results, these procedures will be used by the Argentine nuclear regulatory authorities in evaluation of technical specification of Atucha I and Embalse nuclear power plant safety systems. (Author) [es

Proposed reliability cost model

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1973-01-01

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

2016-01-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

Reliability of Power Electronic Converter Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

-link capacitance in power electronic converter systems; wind turbine systems; smart control strategies for improved reliability of power electronics system; lifetime modelling; power module lifetime test and state monitoring; tools for performance and reliability analysis of power electronics systems; fault...... for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of PECS at different levels of complexity. Drawing on the experience of an international team of experts, this book explores the reliability of PECS covering topics including an introduction to reliability engineering in power...... electronic converter systems; anomaly detection and remaining-life prediction for power electronics; reliability of DC-link capacitors in power electronic converters; reliability of power electronics packaging; modeling for life-time prediction of power semiconductor modules; minimization of DC...

Software reliability growth model for safety systems of nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thirugnana Murthy, D.; Murali, N.; Sridevi, T.; Satya Murty, S.A.V.; Velusamy, K.

2014-01-01

The demand for complex software systems has increased more rapidly than the ability to design, implement, test, and maintain them, and the reliability of software systems has become a major concern for our, modern society.Software failures have impaired several high visibility programs in space, telecommunications, defense and health industries. Besides the costs involved, it setback the projects. The ways of quantifying it and using it for improvement and control of the software development and maintenance process. This paper discusses need for systematic approaches for measuring and assuring software reliability which is a major share of project development resources. It covers the reliability models with the concern on 'Reliability Growth'. It includes data collection on reliability, statistical estimation and prediction, metrics and attributes of product architecture, design, software development, and the operational environment. Besides its use for operational decisions like deployment, it includes guiding software architecture, development, testing and verification and validation. (author)

Algorithms for Bayesian network modeling and reliability assessment of infrastructure systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tien, Iris; Der Kiureghian, Armen

2016-01-01

Novel algorithms are developed to enable the modeling of large, complex infrastructure systems as Bayesian networks (BNs). These include a compression algorithm that significantly reduces the memory storage required to construct the BN model, and an updating algorithm that performs inference on compressed matrices. These algorithms address one of the major obstacles to widespread use of BNs for system reliability assessment, namely the exponentially increasing amount of information that needs to be stored as the number of components in the system increases. The proposed compression and inference algorithms are described and applied to example systems to investigate their performance compared to that of existing algorithms. Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement are demonstrated using the new algorithms, enabling BN modeling and reliability analysis of larger infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • Novel algorithms developed for Bayesian network modeling of infrastructure systems. • Algorithm presented to compress information in conditional probability tables. • Updating algorithm presented to perform inference on compressed matrices. • Algorithms applied to example systems to investigate their performance. • Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement demonstrated.

Modeling reliability measurement of interface on information system: Towards the forensic of rules

Science.gov (United States)

Nasution, M. K. M.; Sitompul, Darwin; Harahap, Marwan

2018-02-01

Today almost all machines depend on the software. As a software and hardware system depends also on the rules that are the procedures for its use. If the procedure or program can be reliably characterized by involving the concept of graph, logic, and probability, then regulatory strength can also be measured accordingly. Therefore, this paper initiates an enumeration model to measure the reliability of interfaces based on the case of information systems supported by the rules of use by the relevant agencies. An enumeration model is obtained based on software reliability calculation.

On reliability and maintenance modelling of ageing equipment in electric power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindquist, Tommie

2008-04-01

Maintenance optimisation is essential to achieve cost-efficiency, availability and reliability of supply in electric power systems. The process of maintenance optimisation requires information about the costs of preventive and corrective maintenance, as well as the costs of failures borne by both electricity suppliers and customers. To calculate expected costs, information is needed about equipment reliability characteristics and the way in which maintenance affects equipment reliability. The aim of this Ph.D. work has been to develop equipment reliability models taking the effect of maintenance into account. The research has focussed on the interrelated areas of condition estimation, reliability modelling and maintenance modelling, which have been investigated in a number of case studies. In the area of condition estimation two methods to quantitatively estimate the condition of disconnector contacts have been developed, which utilise results from infrared thermography inspections and contact resistance measurements. The accuracy of these methods were investigated in two case studies. Reliability models have been developed and implemented for SF6 circuit-breakers, disconnector contacts and XLPE cables in three separate case studies. These models were formulated using both empirical and physical modelling approaches. To improve confidence in such models a Bayesian statistical method incorporating information from the equipment design process was also developed. This method was illustrated in a case study of SF6 circuit-breaker operating rods. Methods for quantifying the effect of maintenance on equipment condition and reliability have been investigated in case studies on disconnector contacts and SF6 circuit-breakers. The input required by these methods are condition measurements and historical failure and maintenance data, respectively. This research has demonstrated that the effect of maintenance on power system equipment may be quantified using available data

Reliability Models Applied to a System of Power Converters in Particle Accelerators

OpenAIRE

Siemaszko, D; Speiser, M; Pittet, S

2012-01-01

Several reliability models are studied when applied to a power system containing a large number of power converters. A methodology is proposed and illustrated in the case study of a novel linear particle accelerator designed for reaching high energies. The proposed methods result in the prediction of both reliability and availability of the considered system for optimisation purposes.

Automatic creation of Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Haitao; Yang Xianhui

2008-01-01

After the release of new international functional safety standards like IEC 61508, people care more for the safety and availability of safety instrumented systems. Markov analysis is a powerful and flexible technique to assess the reliability measurements of safety instrumented systems, but it is fallible and time-consuming to create Markov models manually. This paper presents a new technique to automatically create Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems. Many safety related factors, such as failure modes, self-diagnostic, restorations, common cause and voting, are included in Markov models. A framework is generated first based on voting, failure modes and self-diagnostic. Then, repairs and common-cause failures are incorporated into the framework to build a complete Markov model. Eventual simplification of Markov models can be done by state merging. Examples given in this paper show how explosively the size of Markov model increases as the system becomes a little more complicated as well as the advancement of automatic creation of Markov models

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

Reliability modeling of digital component in plant protection system with various fault-tolerant techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook; Kim, Hee Eun; Lee, Seung Jun; Seong, Poong Hyun

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Integrated fault coverage is introduced for reflecting characteristics of fault-tolerant techniques in the reliability model of digital protection system in NPPs. • The integrated fault coverage considers the process of fault-tolerant techniques from detection to fail-safe generation process. • With integrated fault coverage, the unavailability of repairable component of DPS can be estimated. • The new developed reliability model can reveal the effects of fault-tolerant techniques explicitly for risk analysis. • The reliability model makes it possible to confirm changes of unavailability according to variation of diverse factors. - Abstract: With the improvement of digital technologies, digital protection system (DPS) has more multiple sophisticated fault-tolerant techniques (FTTs), in order to increase fault detection and to help the system safely perform the required functions in spite of the possible presence of faults. Fault detection coverage is vital factor of FTT in reliability. However, the fault detection coverage is insufficient to reflect the effects of various FTTs in reliability model. To reflect characteristics of FTTs in the reliability model, integrated fault coverage is introduced. The integrated fault coverage considers the process of FTT from detection to fail-safe generation process. A model has been developed to estimate the unavailability of repairable component of DPS using the integrated fault coverage. The new developed model can quantify unavailability according to a diversity of conditions. Sensitivity studies are performed to ascertain important variables which affect the integrated fault coverage and unavailability

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen Ringi, M

1995-05-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen Ringi, M.

1995-01-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

1992-01-01

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Reliability-Based Optimization of Series Systems of Parallel Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1993-01-01

Reliability-based design of structural systems is considered. In particular, systems where the reliability model is a series system of parallel systems are treated. A sensitivity analysis for this class of problems is presented. Optimization problems with series systems of parallel systems...... optimization of series systems of parallel systems, but it is also efficient in reliability-based optimization of series systems in general....

Reliability models for a nonrepairable system with heterogeneous components having a phase-type time-to-failure distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Heungseob; Kim, Pansoo

2017-01-01

This research paper presents practical stochastic models for designing and analyzing the time-dependent reliability of nonrepairable systems. The models are formulated for nonrepairable systems with heterogeneous components having phase-type time-to-failure distributions by a structured continuous time Markov chain (CTMC). The versatility of the phase-type distributions enhances the flexibility and practicality of the systems. By virtue of these benefits, studies in reliability engineering can be more advanced than the previous studies. This study attempts to solve a redundancy allocation problem (RAP) by using these new models. The implications of mixing components, redundancy levels, and redundancy strategies are simultaneously considered to maximize the reliability of a system. An imperfect switching case in a standby redundant system is also considered. Furthermore, the experimental results for a well-known RAP benchmark problem are presented to demonstrate the approximating error of the previous reliability function for a standby redundant system and the usefulness of the current research. - Highlights: • Phase-type time-to-failure distribution is used for components. • Reliability model for nonrepairable system is developed using Markov chain. • System is composed of heterogeneous components. • Model provides the real value of standby system reliability not an approximation. • Redundancy allocation problem is used to show usefulness of this model.

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

System reliability developments in structural engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moses, F.

1982-01-01

Two major limitations occur in present structural design code developments utilizing reliability theory. The notional system reliabilities may differ significantly from calibrated component reliabilities. Secondly, actual failures are often due to gross errors not reflected in most present code formats. A review is presented of system reliability methods and further new concepts are developed. The incremental load approach for identifying and expressing collapse modes is expanded by employing a strategy to identify and enumerate the significant structural collapse modes. It further isolates the importance of critical components in the system performance. Ductile and brittle component behavior and strength correlation is reflected in the system model and illustrated in several examples. Modal combinations for the system reliability are also reviewed. From these developments a system factor can be addended to component safety checking equations. Values may be derived from system behavior by substituting in a damage model which accounts for the response range from component failure to collapse. Other strategies are discussed which emphasize quality assurance during design and in-service inspection for components whose behavior is critical to the system reliability. (Auth.)

Reliability Based Optimization of Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1987-01-01

The optimization problem to design structural systems such that the reliability is satisfactory during the whole lifetime of the structure is considered in this paper. Some of the quantities modelling the loads and the strength of the structure are modelled as random variables. The reliability...... is estimated using first. order reliability methods ( FORM ). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement....... For these optimization problems it is described how a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Next, new optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability based optimization problem sequentially using quasi-analytical derivatives. Finally...

Reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water system using semi-Markov process model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veeramany, Arun; Pandey, Mahesh D.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → Semi-Markov process (SMP) model is used to evaluate system failure probability of the nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system. → SMP is used because it can solve reliability block diagram with a mixture of redundant repairable and non-repairable components. → The primary objective is to demonstrate that SMP can consider Weibull failure time distribution for components while a Markov model cannot → Result: the variability in component failure time is directly proportional to the NCCW system failure probability. → The result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects. - Abstract: A reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system is carried out. Semi-Markov process model is used in the analysis because it has potential to solve a reliability block diagram with a mixture of repairable and non-repairable components. With Markov models it is only possible to assume an exponential profile for component failure times. An advantage of the proposed model is the ability to assume Weibull distribution for the failure time of components. In an attempt to reduce the number of states in the model, it is shown that usage of poly-Weibull distribution arises. The objective of the paper is to determine system failure probability under these assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to validate the model result. This result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects.

Reliability and Cost Impacts for Attritable Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-23

on reliability and cost: a probabilistic model. Electric Power Systems Research, 72(3), 213-224. Kalbfleisch, J.D. & Prentice, R.L. (1980). The...copyright protection in the United States. AFIT-ENV-MS-17-M-172 RELIABILITY AND COST IMPACTS FOR ATTRITABLE SYSTEMS THESIS Presented to... power of discrete time Markov chains, whether homogeneous or non-homogeneous, to model the reliability and dependability of repairable systems should

Reliability-Based Optimization of Series Systems of Parallel Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

Reliability-based design of structural systems is considered. Especially systems where the reliability model is a series system of parallel systems are analysed. A sensitivity analysis for this class of problems is presented. Direct and sequential optimization procedures to solve the optimization...

Reliability Model of Power Transformer with ONAN Cooling

OpenAIRE

M. Sefidgaran; M. Mirzaie; A. Ebrahimzadeh

2010-01-01

Reliability of a power system is considerably influenced by its equipments. Power transformers are one of the most critical and expensive equipments of a power system and their proper functions are vital for the substations and utilities. Therefore, reliability model of power transformer is very important in the risk assessment of the engineering systems. This model shows the characteristics and functions of a transformer in the power system. In this paper the reliability model...

Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main­ tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...

An overview of erosion corrosion models and reliability assessment for corrosion defects in piping system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srividya, A.; Suresh, H.N.; Verma, A.K.; Gopika, V.; Santosh

2006-01-01

Piping systems are part of passive structural elements in power plants. The analysis of the piping systems and their quantification in terms of failure probability is of utmost importance. The piping systems may fail due to various degradation mechanisms like thermal fatigue, erosion-corrosion, stress corrosion cracking and vibration fatigue. On examination of previous results, erosion corrosion was more prevalent and wall thinning is a time dependent phenomenon. The paper is intended to consolidate the work done by various investigators on erosion corrosion in estimating the erosion corrosion rate and reliability predictions. A comparison of various erosion corrosion models is made. The reliability predictions based on remaining strength of corroded pipelines by wall thinning is also attempted. Variables in the limit state functions are modelled using normal distributions and Reliability assessment is carried out using some of the existing failure pressure models. A steady state corrosion rate is assumed to estimate the corrosion defect and First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to find the probability of failure associated with corrosion defects over time using the software for Component Reliability evaluation (COMREL). (author)

A simulation model for reliability evaluation of Space Station power systems

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, C.; Patton, A. D.; Kumar, Mudit; Wagner, H.

1988-01-01

A detailed simulation model for the hybrid Space Station power system is presented which allows photovoltaic and solar dynamic power sources to be mixed in varying proportions. The model considers the dependence of reliability and storage characteristics during the sun and eclipse periods, and makes it possible to model the charging and discharging of the energy storage modules in a relatively accurate manner on a continuous basis.

Reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose L.

2001-01-01

Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.

2015-12-01

This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.

Integrating software reliability concepts into risk and reliability modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arndt, S. A.

2006-01-01

As software-based digital systems are becoming more and more common in all aspects of industrial process control, including the nuclear power industry, it is vital that the current state of the art in quality, reliability, and safety analysis be advanced to support the quantitative review of these systems. Several research groups throughout the world are working on the development and assessment of software-based digital system reliability methods and their applications in the nuclear power, aerospace, transportation, and defense industries. However, these groups are hampered by the fact that software experts and probabilistic safety assessment experts view reliability engineering very differently. This paper discusses the characteristics of a common vocabulary and modeling framework. (authors)

An adaptive neuro fuzzy model for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirti Tyagi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Although many algorithms and techniques have been developed for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems (CBSSs, much more research is needed. Accurate estimation of the reliability of a CBSS is difficult because it depends on two factors: component reliability and glue code reliability. Moreover, reliability is a real-world phenomenon with many associated real-time problems. Soft computing techniques can help to solve problems whose solutions are uncertain or unpredictable. A number of soft computing approaches for estimating CBSS reliability have been proposed. These techniques learn from the past and capture existing patterns in data. The two basic elements of soft computing are neural networks and fuzzy logic. In this paper, we propose a model for estimating CBSS reliability, known as an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, that is based on these two basic elements of soft computing, and we compare its performance with that of a plain FIS (fuzzy inference system for different data sets.

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, S. J.

1984-01-01

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Reliable gain-scheduled control of discrete-time systems and its application to CSTR model

Science.gov (United States)

Sakthivel, R.; Selvi, S.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Shi, Y.

2016-10-01

This paper is focused on reliable gain-scheduled controller design for a class of discrete-time systems with randomly occurring nonlinearities and actuator fault. Further, the nonlinearity in the system model is assumed to occur randomly according to a Bernoulli distribution with measurable time-varying probability in real time. The main purpose of this paper is to design a gain-scheduled controller by implementing a probability-dependent Lyapunov function and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach such that the closed-loop discrete-time system is stochastically stable for all admissible randomly occurring nonlinearities. The existence conditions for the reliable controller is formulated in terms of LMI constraints. Finally, the proposed reliable gain-scheduled control scheme is applied on continuously stirred tank reactor model to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design technique.

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Using the graphs models for evaluating in-core monitoring systems reliability by the method of imiting simulaton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golovanov, M.N.; Zyuzin, N.N.; Levin, G.L.; Chesnokov, A.N.

1987-01-01

An approach for estimation of reliability factors of complex reserved systems at early stages of development using the method of imitating simulation is considered. Different types of models, their merits and lacks are given. Features of in-core monitoring systems and advosability of graph model and graph theory element application for estimating reliability of such systems are shown. The results of investigation of the reliability factors of the reactor monitoring, control and core local protection subsystem are shown

Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. (United States)

2011-08-15

Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method.

Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell

2011-01-01

Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method

A holistic framework of degradation modeling for reliability analysis and maintenance optimization of nuclear safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Yanhui

2016-01-01

Components of nuclear safety systems are in general highly reliable, which leads to a difficulty in modeling their degradation and failure behaviors due to the limited amount of data available. Besides, the complexity of such modeling task is increased by the fact that these systems are often subject to multiple competing degradation processes and that these can be dependent under certain circumstances, and influenced by a number of external factors (e.g. temperature, stress, mechanical shocks, etc.). In this complicated problem setting, this PhD work aims to develop a holistic framework of models and computational methods for the reliability-based analysis and maintenance optimization of nuclear safety systems taking into account the available knowledge on the systems, degradation and failure behaviors, their dependencies, the external influencing factors and the associated uncertainties.The original scientific contributions of the work are: (1) For single components, we integrate random shocks into multi-state physics models for component reliability analysis, considering general dependencies between the degradation and two types of random shocks. (2) For multi-component systems (with a limited number of components):(a) a piecewise-deterministic Markov process modeling framework is developed to treat degradation dependency in a system whose degradation processes are modeled by physics-based models and multi-state models; (b) epistemic uncertainty due to incomplete or imprecise knowledge is considered and a finite-volume scheme is extended to assess the (fuzzy) system reliability; (c) the mean absolute deviation importance measures are extended for components with multiple dependent competing degradation processes and subject to maintenance; (d) the optimal maintenance policy considering epistemic uncertainty and degradation dependency is derived by combining finite-volume scheme, differential evolution and non-dominated sorting differential evolution; (e) the

Reliability Based Optimal Design of Vertical Breakwaters Modelled as a Series System Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiani, E.; Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1996-01-01

Reliability based design of monolithic vertical breakwaters is considered. Probabilistic models of important failure modes such as sliding and rupture failure in the rubble mound and the subsoil are described. Characterisation of the relevant stochastic parameters are presented, and relevant design...... variables are identified and an optimal system reliability formulation is presented. An illustrative example is given....

Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2012-01-01

Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

THE PROBLEMS OF MODELING THE RELIABILITY STRUCTURE OF THE COMPLEX TECHNICAL SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF A STEAM‐WATER SYSTEM OF THE ENGINE ROOM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leszek CHYBOWSKI

2012-04-01

Full Text Available In the paper the concept of a system structure with particular emphasis on the reliability structure has been presented. Advantages and disadvantages of modeling the reliability structure of a system using reliability block diagrams (RBD have been shown. RBD models of a marine steam‐water system constructed according to the concept of ‘multi‐component’, ‘one component’ and mixed models have been discussed. Critical remarks on the practical application of models which recognize only the structural surplus have been dealt with. The significant value of the model by professors Smalko and Jaźwiński called by them ‘default reliability structure’ has been pointed out. The necessity of building a new type of models: quality‐quantity, useful in the methodology developed by the author's multi-criteria analysis of importance of elements in the reliability structure of complex technical systems.

Reliability analysis and operator modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollnagel, Erik

1996-01-01

The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

A possibilistic uncertainty model in classical reliability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Cooman, G.; Capelle, B.

1994-01-01

The authors argue that a possibilistic uncertainty model can be used to represent linguistic uncertainty about the states of a system and of its components. Furthermore, the basic properties of the application of this model to classical reliability theory are studied. The notion of the possibilistic reliability of a system or a component is defined. Based on the concept of a binary structure function, the important notion of a possibilistic function is introduced. It allows to calculate the possibilistic reliability of a system in terms of the possibilistic reliabilities of its components

Results of a Demonstration Assessment of Passive System Reliability Utilizing the Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

2015-04-26

Advanced small modular reactor designs include many advantageous design features such as passively driven safety systems that are arguably more reliable and cost effective relative to conventional active systems. Despite their attractiveness, a reliability assessment of passive systems can be difficult using conventional reliability methods due to the nature of passive systems. Simple deviations in boundary conditions can induce functional failures in a passive system, and intermediate or unexpected operating modes can also occur. As part of an ongoing project, Argonne National Laboratory is investigating various methodologies to address passive system reliability. The Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS), a systematic approach for examining reliability, is one technique chosen for this analysis. This methodology is combined with the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to assess the reliability of a passive system and the impact of its associated uncertainties. For this demonstration problem, an integrated plant model of an advanced small modular pool-type sodium fast reactor with a passive reactor cavity cooling system is subjected to a station blackout using RELAP5-3D. This paper discusses important aspects of the reliability assessment, including deployment of the methodology, the uncertainty identification and quantification process, and identification of key risk metrics.

Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

2012-01-01

Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

Modeling and Analysis of Component Faults and Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Ravn, Anders Peter

2016-01-01

This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets that are automati......This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets...... that are automatically generated. The stochastic information on the faults is used to estimate the reliability of the fault affected system. The reliability is given with respect to properties of the system state space. We illustrate the process on a concrete example using the Uppaal model checker for validating...... the ideal system model and the fault modeling. Then the statistical version of the tool, UppaalSMC, is used to find reliability estimates....

An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

2000-01-01

In the nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model to Dynamic Safety System(DDS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic

An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

2000-01-01

In nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model of dynamic safety system (DSS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic. (author)

Alternative approaches to reliability modeling of a multiple engineered barrier system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ananda, M.M.A.; Singh, A.K.

1994-01-01

The lifetime of the engineered barrier system used for containment of high-level radioactive waste will significantly impact the total performance of a geological repository facility. Currently two types of designs are under consideration for an engineered barrier system, single engineered barrier system and multiple engineered barrier system. Multiple engineered barrier system consists of several metal barriers and the waste form (cladding). Some recent work show that a significant improvement of performance can be achieved by utilizing multiple engineered barrier systems. Considering sequential failures for each barrier, we model the reliability of the multiple engineered barrier system. Weibull and exponential lifetime distributions are used through out the analysis. Furthermore, the number of failed engineered barrier systems in a repository at a given time is modeled using a poisson approximation

Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

2006-01-01

The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

Reliable computer systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

1993-11-01

In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

Reliability Electrical Power System of Hospital as Cold Standby System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grabski Franciszek

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic model of a hospital electrical power system consisting of mains, an emergency power system and the automatic transfer switch with the generator starter are discussed in this paper. The reliability model is semi-Markov process describing two different units renewable cold standby system and switch. The embedded Semi-Markov processes concept is applied for description of the system evolution. Time to failure of the system is represented by a random variable denoting the first passage time of the process from the given state to the subset of states. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to evaluate the reliability function and some reliability characteristics.

Reliability analysis in interdependent smart grid systems

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Hao; Kan, Zhe; Zhao, Dandan; Han, Jianmin; Lu, Jianfeng; Hu, Zhaolong

2018-06-01

Complex network theory is a useful way to study many real complex systems. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on complex network theory is introduced in interdependent smart grid systems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the structure of smart grid systems and studying the underlying network model, their interactions, and relationships and how cascading failures occur in the interdependent smart grid systems. We propose a practical model for interdependent smart grid systems using complex theory. Besides, based on percolation theory, we also study the effect of cascading failures effect and reveal detailed mathematical analysis of failure propagation in such systems. We analyze the reliability of our proposed model caused by random attacks or failures by calculating the size of giant functioning components in interdependent smart grid systems. Our simulation results also show that there exists a threshold for the proportion of faulty nodes, beyond which the smart grid systems collapse. Also we determine the critical values for different system parameters. In this way, the reliability analysis model based on complex network theory can be effectively utilized for anti-attack and protection purposes in interdependent smart grid systems.

Overview of system reliability analyses for PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Takeshi

2012-01-01

Overall explanations are given for many matters relating to system reliability analysis. Systems engineering, Operations research, Industrial engineering, Quality control are briefly explained. Many system reliability analysis methods including advanced methods are introduced. Discussions are given for FMEA, reliability block diagram, Markov model, Petri net, Bayesian network, goal tree success tree, dynamic flow graph methodology, cell-to-cell mapping technique, the GO-FLOW and others. (author)

Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland); Korhonen, J. [VTT Electronics, Espoo (Finland)

1997-04-01

This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.).

Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Korhonen, J.

1997-04-01

This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.)

Systems reliability analysis for the national ignition facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, K.C.; Annese, C.E.; MacIntyre, A.T.; Sicherman, A.

1996-01-01

A Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis was initiated for the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The NIF is an inertial confinement fusion research facility designed to achieve controlled thermonuclear reaction; the preferred site for the NIF is the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The NIF RAM analysis has three purposes: (1) to allocate top level reliability and availability goals for the systems, (2) to develop an operability model for optimum maintainability, and (3) to determine the achievability of the allocated goals of the RAM parameters for the NIF systems and the facility operation as a whole. An allocation model assigns the reliability and availability goals for front line and support systems by a top-down approach; reliability analysis uses a bottom-up approach to determine the system reliability and availability from component level to system level

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

Science.gov (United States)

Al Hassan Mohammad; Novack, Steven

2015-01-01

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

System reliability of corroding pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Wenxing

2010-01-01

A methodology is presented in this paper to evaluate the time-dependent system reliability of a pipeline segment that contains multiple active corrosion defects and is subjected to stochastic internal pressure loading. The pipeline segment is modeled as a series system with three distinctive failure modes due to corrosion, namely small leak, large leak and rupture. The internal pressure is characterized as a simple discrete stochastic process that consists of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables each acting over a period of one year. The magnitude of a given sequence follows the annual maximum pressure distribution. The methodology is illustrated through a hypothetical example. Furthermore, the impact of the spatial variability of the pressure loading and pipe resistances associated with different defects on the system reliability is investigated. The analysis results suggest that the spatial variability of pipe properties has a negligible impact on the system reliability. On the other hand, the spatial variability of the internal pressure, initial defect sizes and defect growth rates can have a significant impact on the system reliability.

System Reliability Analysis Considering Correlation of Performances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Saekyeol; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Woochul [Mando Corporation, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

2017-04-15

Reliability analysis of a mechanical system has been developed in order to consider the uncertainties in the product design that may occur from the tolerance of design variables, uncertainties of noise, environmental factors, and material properties. In most of the previous studies, the reliability was calculated independently for each performance of the system. However, the conventional methods cannot consider the correlation between the performances of the system that may lead to a difference between the reliability of the entire system and the reliability of the individual performance. In this paper, the joint probability density function (PDF) of the performances is modeled using a copula which takes into account the correlation between performances of the system. The system reliability is proposed as the integral of joint PDF of performances and is compared with the individual reliability of each performance by mathematical examples and two-bar truss example.

System Reliability Analysis Considering Correlation of Performances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Saekyeol; Lee, Tae Hee; Lim, Woochul

2017-01-01

Reliability analysis of a mechanical system has been developed in order to consider the uncertainties in the product design that may occur from the tolerance of design variables, uncertainties of noise, environmental factors, and material properties. In most of the previous studies, the reliability was calculated independently for each performance of the system. However, the conventional methods cannot consider the correlation between the performances of the system that may lead to a difference between the reliability of the entire system and the reliability of the individual performance. In this paper, the joint probability density function (PDF) of the performances is modeled using a copula which takes into account the correlation between performances of the system. The system reliability is proposed as the integral of joint PDF of performances and is compared with the individual reliability of each performance by mathematical examples and two-bar truss example.

Influence of reliability of the relay protection to the whole reliability of electric power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stojanovski, Ljupcho I.

2001-01-01

The influence of the reliability of the elements of relay protection up today analyses of the reliability on electric power systems, very rare has been taken into consideration, in other words, in these analyses it is assumed that the reliability of the protection has value one. In this work an attempt is that through modelling of individual types of protection of the elements of high-voltage systems to make calculation to the influence of the reliability of the relay protection on the total reliability of the high-voltage systems.(Author)

Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1982-01-01

New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

Reliability assessment of restructured power systems using reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Yi; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit; Billinton, Roy; Karki, Rajesh

2007-01-01

This paper presents a technique to evaluate reliability of a restructured power system with a bilateral market. The proposed technique is based on the combination of the reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation approaches. The reliability network equivalent techniques have been implemented in the Monte Carlo simulation procedure to reduce the computational burden of the analysis. Pseudo-sequential simulation has been used to increase the computational efficiency of the non-sequential simulation method and to model the chronological aspects of market trading and system operation. Multi-state Markov models for generation and transmission systems are proposed and implemented in the simulation. A new load shedding scheme is proposed during generation inadequacy and network congestion to minimize the load curtailment. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is used to illustrate the technique. (author)

Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

2012-01-01

Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

A reliability-risk modelling of nuclear rad-waste facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehmann, P.H.; El-Bassioni, A.A.

1975-01-01

Rad-waste disposal systems of nuclear power sites are designed and operated to collect, delay, contain, and concentrate radioactive wastes from reactor plant processes such that on-site and off-site exposures to radiation are well below permissible limits. To assist the designer in achieving minimum release/exposure goals, a computerized reliability-risk model has been developed to simulate the rad-waste system. The objectives of the model are to furnish a practical tool for quantifying the effects of changes in system configuration, operation, and equipment, and for the identification of weak segments in the system design. Primarily, the model comprises a marriage of system analysis, reliability analysis, and release-risk assessment. Provisions have been included in the model to permit the optimization of the system design subject to constraints on cost and rad-releases. The system analysis phase involves the preparation of a physical and functional description of the rad-waste facility accompanied by the formation of a system tree diagram. The reliability analysis phase embodies the formulation of appropriate reliability models and the collection of model parameters. Release-risk assessment constitutes the analytical basis whereupon further system and reliability analyses may be warranted. Release-risk represents the potential for release of radioactivity and is defined as the product of an element's unreliability at time, t, and the radioactivity available for release in time interval, Δt. A computer code (RARISK) has been written to simulate the tree diagram of the rad-waste system. Reliability and release-risk results have been generated for cases which examined the process flow paths of typical rad-waste systems, the effects of repair and standby, the variations of equipment failure and repair rates, and changes in system configurations. The essential feature of this model is that a complex system like the rad-waste facility can be easily decomposed into its

An artificial intelligence system for reliability studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llory, M.; Ancelin, C.; Bannelier, M.; Bouhadana, H.; Bouissou, M.; Lucas, J.Y.; Magne, L.; Villate, N.

1990-01-01

The EDF (French Electricity Company) software developed for computer aided reliability studies is considered. Such software tools were applied in the study of the safety requirements of the Paluel nuclear power plant. The reliability models, based on IF-THEN type rules, and the generation of models by the expert system are described. The models are then processed applying algorithm structures [fr

Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik

Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...

Reliability Modeling of Double Beam Bridge Crane

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Zhu; Tong, Yifei; Luan, Jiahui; Xiangdong, Li

2018-05-01

This paper briefly described the structure of double beam bridge crane and the basic parameters of double beam bridge crane are defined. According to the structure and system division of double beam bridge crane, the reliability architecture of double beam bridge crane system is proposed, and the reliability mathematical model is constructed.

Reliability modeling of a hard real-time system using the path-space approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hagbae

2000-01-01

A hard real-time system, such as a fly-by-wire system, fails catastrophically (e.g. losing stability) if its control inputs are not updated by its digital controller computer within a certain timing constraint called the hard deadline. To assess and validate those systems' reliabilities by using a semi-Markov model that explicitly contains the deadline information, we propose a path-space approach deriving the upper and lower bounds of the probability of system failure. These bounds are derived by using only simple parameters, and they are especially suitable for highly reliable systems which should recover quickly. Analytical bounds are derived for both exponential and Wobble failure distributions encountered commonly, which have proven effective through numerical examples, while considering three repair strategies: repair-as-good-as-new, repair-as-good-as-old, and repair-better-than-old

A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

Reliability Analysis of Sealing Structure of Electromechanical System Based on Kriging Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, F.; Wang, Y. M.; Chen, R. W.; Deng, W. W.; Gao, Y.

2018-05-01

The sealing performance of aircraft electromechanical system has a great influence on flight safety, and the reliability of its typical seal structure is analyzed by researcher. In this paper, we regard reciprocating seal structure as a research object to study structural reliability. Having been based on the finite element numerical simulation method, the contact stress between the rubber sealing ring and the cylinder wall is calculated, and the relationship between the contact stress and the pressure of the hydraulic medium is built, and the friction force on different working conditions are compared. Through the co-simulation, the adaptive Kriging model obtained by EFF learning mechanism is used to describe the failure probability of the seal ring, so as to evaluate the reliability of the sealing structure. This article proposes a new idea of numerical evaluation for the reliability analysis of sealing structure, and also provides a theoretical basis for the optimal design of sealing structure.

Reliability modeling and analysis for a novel design of modular converter system of wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Cai Wen; Zhang, Tieling; Chen, Nan; Jin, Tongdan

2013-01-01

Converters play a vital role in wind turbines. The concept of modularity is gaining in popularity in converter design for modern wind turbines in order to achieve high reliability as well as cost-effectiveness. In this study, we are concerned with a novel topology of modular converter invented by Hjort, Modular converter system with interchangeable converter modules. World Intellectual Property Organization, Pub. No. WO29027520 A2; 5 March 2009, in this architecture, the converter comprises a number of identical and interchangeable basic modules. Each module can operate in either AC/DC or DC/AC mode, depending on whether it functions on the generator or the grid side. Moreover, each module can be reconfigured from one side to the other, depending on the system’s operational requirements. This is a shining example of full-modular design. This paper aims to model and analyze the reliability of such a modular converter. A Markov modeling approach is applied to the system reliability analysis. In particular, six feasible converter system models based on Hjort’s architecture are investigated. Through numerical analyses and comparison, we provide insights and guidance for converter designers in their decision-making.

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofgren, E.V.

1985-08-01

This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

ARCHITECTURE AND RELIABILITY OF OPERATING SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav V. Nazarov

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Progress in the production technology of microprocessors significantly increased reliability and performance of the computer systems hardware. It cannot be told about the corresponding characteristics of the software and its basis – the operating system (OS. Some achievements of program engineering are more modest in this field. Both directions of OS improvement (increasing of productivity and reliability are connected with the development of effective structures of these systems. OS functional complexity leads to the multiplicity of the structure, which is further enhanced by the specialization of the operating system depending on scope of computer system (complex scientific calculations, real time, information retrieval systems, systems of the automated and automatic control, etc. The functional complexity of the OS leads to the complexity of its architecture, which is further enhanced by the specialization of the operating system, depending on the computer system application area (complex scientific calculations, real-time, information retrieval systems, automated and automatic control systems, etc.. That fact led to variety of modern OS. It is possible to estimate reliability of different OS structures only as results of long-term field experiment or simulation modeling. However it is most often unacceptable because of time and funds expenses for carrying out such research. This survey attempts to evaluate the reliability of two main OS architectures: large multi-layered modular core and a multiserver (client-server system. Represented by continuous Markov chains which are explored in the stationary mode on the basis of transition from systems of the differential equations of Kolmogorov to system of the linear algebraic equations, models of these systems are developed.

Analytical modeling of nuclear power station operator reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sabri, Z.A.; Husseiny, A.A.

1979-01-01

The operator-plant interface is a critical component of power stations which requires the formulation of mathematical models to be applied in plant reliability analysis. The human model introduced here is based on cybernetic interactions and allows for use of available data from psychological experiments, hot and cold training and normal operation. The operator model is identified and integrated in the control and protection systems. The availability and reliability are given for different segments of the operator task and for specific periods of the operator life: namely, training, operation and vigilance or near retirement periods. The results can be easily and directly incorporated in system reliability analysis. (author)

Reliability of power electronic converter systems

CERN Document Server

Chung, Henry Shu-hung; Blaabjerg, Frede; Pecht, Michael

2016-01-01

This book outlines current research into the scientific modeling, experimentation, and remedial measures for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of Power Electronic Converter Systems (PECS) at different levels of complexity.

Research on Connection and Function Reliability of the Oil＆Gas Pipeline System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Bo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pipeline transportation is the optimal way for energy delivery in terms of safety, efficiency and environmental protection. Because of the complexity of pipeline external system including geological hazards, social and cultural influence, it is a great challenge to operate the pipeline safely and reliable. Therefore, the pipeline reliability becomes an important issue. Based on the classical reliability theory, the analysis of pipeline system is carried out, then the reliability model of the pipeline system is built, and the calculation is addressed thereafter. Further the connection and function reliability model is applied to a practical active pipeline system, with the use of the proposed methodology of the pipeline system; the connection reliability and function reliability are obtained. This paper firstly presented to considerate the connection and function reliability separately and obtain significant contribution to establish the mathematical reliability model of pipeline system, hence provide fundamental groundwork for the pipeline reliability research in the future.

Space Vehicle Reliability Modeling in DIORAMA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tornga, Shawn Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-07-12

When modeling system performance of space based detection systems it is important to consider spacecraft reliability. As space vehicles age the components become prone to failure for a variety of reasons such as radiation damage. Additionally, some vehicles may lose the ability to maneuver once they exhaust fuel supplies. Typically failure is divided into two categories: engineering mistakes and technology surprise. This document will report on a method of simulating space vehicle reliability in the DIORAMA framework.

An Open Modelling Approach for Availability and Reliability of Systems - OpenMARS

CERN Document Server

Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Gutleber, Johannes

2018-01-01

This document introduces and gives specification for OpenMARS, which is an open modelling approach for availability and reliability of systems. It supports the most common risk assessment and operation modelling techniques. Uniquely OpenMARS allows combining and connecting models defined with different techniques. This ensures that a modeller has a high degree of freedom to accurately describe the modelled system without limitations imposed by an individual technique. Here the OpenMARS model definition is specified with a tool independent tabular format, which supports managing models developed in a collaborative fashion. Origin of our research is in Future Circular Collider (FCC) study, where we developed the unique features of our concept to model the availability and luminosity production of particle colliders. We were motivated to describe our approach in detail as we see potential further applications in performance and energy efficiency analyses of large scientific infrastructures or industrial processe...

Sustainable, Reliable Mission-Systems Architecture

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neil, Graham; Orr, James K.; Watson, Steve

2007-01-01

A mission-systems architecture, based on a highly modular infrastructure utilizing: open-standards hardware and software interfaces as the enabling technology is essential for affordable and sustainable space exploration programs. This mission-systems architecture requires (a) robust communication between heterogeneous system, (b) high reliability, (c) minimal mission-to-mission reconfiguration, (d) affordable development, system integration, and verification of systems, and (e) minimal sustaining engineering. This paper proposes such an architecture. Lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program and Earthbound complex engineered system are applied to define the model. Technology projections reaching out 5 years are mde to refine model details.

Model of load balancing using reliable algorithm with multi-agent system

Science.gov (United States)

Afriansyah, M. F.; Somantri, M.; Riyadi, M. A.

2017-04-01

Massive technology development is linear with the growth of internet users which increase network traffic activity. It also increases load of the system. The usage of reliable algorithm and mobile agent in distributed load balancing is a viable solution to handle the load issue on a large-scale system. Mobile agent works to collect resource information and can migrate according to given task. We propose reliable load balancing algorithm using least time first byte (LFB) combined with information from the mobile agent. In system overview, the methodology consisted of defining identification system, specification requirements, network topology and design system infrastructure. The simulation method for simulated system was using 1800 request for 10 s from the user to the server and taking the data for analysis. Software simulation was based on Apache Jmeter by observing response time and reliability of each server and then compared it with existing method. Results of performed simulation show that the LFB method with mobile agent can perform load balancing with efficient systems to all backend server without bottleneck, low risk of server overload, and reliable.

Reliability modelling of repairable systems using Petri nets and fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knezevic, J.; Odoom, E.R.

2001-01-01

A methodology is developed which uses Petri nets instead of the fault tree methodology and solves for reliability indices utilising fuzzy Lambda-Tau method. Fuzzy set theory is used for representing the failure rate and repair time instead of the classical (crisp) set theory because fuzzy numbers allow expert opinions, linguistic variables, operating conditions, uncertainty and imprecision in reliability information to be incorporated into the system model. Petri nets are used because unlike the fault tree methodology, the use of Petri nets allows efficient simultaneous generation of minimal cut and path sets

Reliability Growth in Space Life Support Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry W.

2014-01-01

A hardware system's failure rate often increases over time due to wear and aging, but not always. Some systems instead show reliability growth, a decreasing failure rate with time, due to effective failure analysis and remedial hardware upgrades. Reliability grows when failure causes are removed by improved design. A mathematical reliability growth model allows the reliability growth rate to be computed from the failure data. The space shuttle was extensively maintained, refurbished, and upgraded after each flight and it experienced significant reliability growth during its operational life. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) is much more difficult to maintain and upgrade and its failure rate has been constant over time. The ISS Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) reliability has slightly decreased. Failures on ISS and with the ISS CDRA continue to be a challenge.

Development of RBDGG Solver and Its Application to System Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol

2010-01-01

For the purpose of making system reliability analysis easier and more intuitive, RBDGG (Reliability Block diagram with General Gates) methodology was introduced as an extension of the conventional reliability block diagram. The advantage of the RBDGG methodology is that the structure of a RBDGG model is very similar to the actual structure of the analyzed system, and therefore the modeling of a system for system reliability and unavailability analysis becomes very intuitive and easy. The main idea of the development of the RBDGG methodology is similar with that of the development of the RGGG (Reliability Graph with General Gates) methodology, which is an extension of a conventional reliability graph. The newly proposed methodology is now implemented into a software tool, RBDGG Solver. RBDGG Solver was developed as a WIN32 console application. RBDGG Solver receives information on the failure modes and failure probabilities of each component in the system, along with the connection structure and connection logics among the components in the system. Based on the received information, RBDGG Solver automatically generates a system reliability analysis model for the system, and then provides the analysis results. In this paper, application of RBDGG Solver to the reliability analysis of an example system, and verification of the calculation results are provided for the purpose of demonstrating how RBDGG Solver is used for system reliability analysis

Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model

OpenAIRE

Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian

2004-01-01

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network structure and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric networks are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabasi-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using s...

LED Lighting System Reliability Modeling and Inference via Random Effects Gamma Process and Copula Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huibing Hao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Light emitting diode (LED lamp has attracted increasing interest in the field of lighting systems due to its low energy and long lifetime. For different functions (i.e., illumination and color, it may have two or more performance characteristics. When the multiple performance characteristics are dependent, it creates a challenging problem to accurately analyze the system reliability. In this paper, we assume that the system has two performance characteristics, and each performance characteristic is governed by a random effects Gamma process where the random effects can capture the unit to unit differences. The dependency of performance characteristics is described by a Frank copula function. Via the copula function, the reliability assessment model is proposed. Considering the model is so complicated and analytically intractable, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method is used to estimate the unknown parameters. A numerical example about actual LED lamps data is given to demonstrate the usefulness and validity of the proposed model and method.

Telecommunications system reliability engineering theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Ayers, Mark L

2012-01-01

"Increasing system complexity require new, more sophisticated tools for system modeling and metric calculation. Bringing the field up to date, this book provides telecommunications engineers with practical tools for analyzing, calculating, and reporting availability, reliability, and maintainability metrics. It gives the background in system reliability theory and covers in-depth applications in fiber optic networks, microwave networks, satellite networks, power systems, and facilities management. Computer programming tools for simulating the approaches presented, using the Matlab software suite, are also provided"

LED system reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

2011-01-01

This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

A discussion of system reliability and the relative importance of pumps and valves to overall system availability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poole, A.B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1996-12-01

An analysis was undertaken to establish preliminary trends for how component aging can effect failure rates for swing check valves, centrifugal pumps and motor operated valves. These failure rate trends were evaluated over time and linear aging rate models established. The failure rate models were then used with classic reliability theories to estimate reliability as a function of operating time. Reliability theory was also used to establish a simple system reliability model. Using the system model, the relative importance of pumps and valves to the overall system reliability were studied. Conclusions were established relative to overall system availability over time and the relative unavailabilities of the various components studied.

A discussion of system reliability and the relative importance of pumps and valves to overall system availability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poole, A.B.

1996-01-01

An analysis was undertaken to establish preliminary trends for how component aging can effect failure rates for swing check valves, centrifugal pumps and motor operated valves. These failure rate trends were evaluated over time and linear aging rate models established. The failure rate models were then used with classic reliability theories to estimate reliability as a function of operating time. Reliability theory was also used to establish a simple system reliability model. Using the system model, the relative importance of pumps and valves to the overall system reliability were studied. Conclusions were established relative to overall system availability over time and the relative unavailabilities of the various components studied

Reliability assessment of embedded digital system using multi-state function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Jong Gyun; Seong, Poong Hyun

2006-01-01

This work describes a combinatorial model for estimating the reliability of the embedded digital system by means of multi-state function. This model includes a coverage model for fault-handling techniques implemented in digital systems. The fault-handling techniques make it difficult for many types of components in digital system to be treated as binary state, good or bad. The multi-state function provides a complete analysis of multi-state systems as which the digital systems can be regarded. Through adaptation of software operational profile flow to multi-state function, the HW/SW interaction is also considered for estimation of the reliability of digital system. Using this model, we evaluate the reliability of one board controller in a digital system, Interposing Logic System (ILS), which is installed in YGN nuclear power units 3 and 4. Since the proposed model is a generalized combinatorial model, the simplification of this model becomes the conventional model that treats the system as binary state. This modeling method is particularly attractive for embedded systems in which small sized application software is implemented since it will require very laborious work for this method to be applied to systems with large software

Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

2017-09-01

In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

An analytical framework for reliability growth of one-shot systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, J. Brian; Mosleh, Ali

2008-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a new reliability growth methodology for one-shot systems that is applicable to the case where all corrective actions are implemented at the end of the current test phase. The methodology consists of four model equations for assessing: expected reliability, the expected number of failure modes observed in testing, the expected probability of discovering new failure modes, and the expected portion of system unreliability associated with repeat failure modes. These model equations provide an analytical framework for which reliability practitioners can estimate reliability improvement, address goodness-of-fit concerns, quantify programmatic risk, and assess reliability maturity of one-shot systems. A numerical example is given to illustrate the value and utility of the presented approach. This methodology is useful to program managers and reliability practitioners interested in applying the techniques above in their reliability growth program

Modelling a reliability system governed by discrete phase-type distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruiz-Castro, Juan Eloy; Perez-Ocon, Rafael; Fernandez-Villodre, Gemma

2008-01-01

We present an n-system with one online unit and the others in cold standby. There is a repairman. When the online fails it goes to repair, and instantaneously a standby unit becomes the online one. The operational and repair times follow discrete phase-type distributions. Given that any discrete distribution defined on the positive integers is a discrete phase-type distribution, the system can be considered a general one. A model with unlimited number of units is considered for approximating a system with a great number of units. We show that the process that governs the system is a quasi-birth-and-death process. For this system, performance reliability measures; the up and down periods, and the involved costs are calculated in a matrix and algorithmic form. We show that the discrete case is not a trivial case of the continuous one. The results given in this paper have been implemented computationally with Matlab

Modelling a reliability system governed by discrete phase-type distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruiz-Castro, Juan Eloy [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)], E-mail: jeloy@ugr.es; Perez-Ocon, Rafael [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)], E-mail: rperezo@ugr.es; Fernandez-Villodre, Gemma [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)

2008-11-15

We present an n-system with one online unit and the others in cold standby. There is a repairman. When the online fails it goes to repair, and instantaneously a standby unit becomes the online one. The operational and repair times follow discrete phase-type distributions. Given that any discrete distribution defined on the positive integers is a discrete phase-type distribution, the system can be considered a general one. A model with unlimited number of units is considered for approximating a system with a great number of units. We show that the process that governs the system is a quasi-birth-and-death process. For this system, performance reliability measures; the up and down periods, and the involved costs are calculated in a matrix and algorithmic form. We show that the discrete case is not a trivial case of the continuous one. The results given in this paper have been implemented computationally with Matlab.

Exact reliability quantification of highly reliable systems with maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bris, Radim, E-mail: radim.bris@vsb.c [VSB-Technical University Ostrava, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Applied Mathematics, 17. listopadu 15, 70833 Ostrava-Poruba (Czech Republic)

2010-12-15

When a system is composed of highly reliable elements, exact reliability quantification may be problematic, because computer accuracy is limited. Inaccuracy can be due to different aspects. For example, an error may be made when subtracting two numbers that are very close to each other, or at the process of summation of many very different numbers, etc. The basic objective of this paper is to find a procedure, which eliminates errors made by PC when calculations close to an error limit are executed. Highly reliable system is represented by the use of directed acyclic graph which is composed from terminal nodes, i.e. highly reliable input elements, internal nodes representing subsystems and edges that bind all of these nodes. Three admissible unavailability models of terminal nodes are introduced, including both corrective and preventive maintenance. The algorithm for exact unavailability calculation of terminal nodes is based on merits of a high-performance language for technical computing MATLAB. System unavailability quantification procedure applied to a graph structure, which considers both independent and dependent (i.e. repeatedly occurring) terminal nodes is based on combinatorial principle. This principle requires summation of a lot of very different non-negative numbers, which may be a source of an inaccuracy. That is why another algorithm for exact summation of such numbers is designed in the paper. The summation procedure uses benefits from a special number system with the base represented by the value 2{sup 32}. Computational efficiency of the new computing methodology is compared with advanced simulation software. Various calculations on systems from references are performed to emphasize merits of the methodology.

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

Science.gov (United States)

Hsueh, Mei-Chen

1987-01-01

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Reliability Approach of a Compressor System using Reliability Block ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pc

2018-03-05

Mar 5, 2018 ... This paper presents a reliability analysis of such a system using reliability ... Keywords-compressor system, reliability, reliability block diagram, RBD .... the same structure has been kept with the three subsystems: air flow, oil flow and .... and Safety in Engineering Design", Springer, 2009. [3] P. O'Connor ...

Improvement of the reliability graph with general gates to analyze the reliability of dynamic systems that have various operation modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Seung Ki [Div. of Research Reactor System Design, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); No, Young Gyu; Seong, Poong Hyun [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-15

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant.

Improvement of the reliability graph with general gates to analyze the reliability of dynamic systems that have various operation modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Seung Ki; No, Young Gyu; Seong, Poong Hyun

2016-01-01

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant

Foundations for a time reliability correlation system to quantify human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, E.M. Jr.; Fragola, J.R.

1988-01-01

Time reliability correlations (TRCs) have been used in human reliability analysis (HRA) in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify post-initiator human failure events. The first TRCs were judgmental but recent data taken from simulators have provided evidence for development of a system of TRCs. This system has the equational form: t = tau R X tau U , where the first factor is the lognormally distributed random variable of successful response time, derived from the simulator data, and the second factor is a unitary lognormal random variable to account for uncertainty in the model. The first random variable is further factored into a median response time and a factor to account for the dominant type of behavior assumed to be involved in the response and a second factor to account for other influences on the reliability of the response

Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor

2010-01-01

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

On modeling human reliability in space flights - Redundancy and recovery operations

Science.gov (United States)

Aarset, M.; Wright, J. F.

The reliability of humans is of paramount importance to the safety of space flight systems. This paper describes why 'back-up' operators might not be the best solution, and in some cases, might even degrade system reliability. The problem associated with human redundancy calls for special treatment in reliability analyses. The concept of Standby Redundancy is adopted, and psychological and mathematical models are introduced to improve the way such problems can be estimated and handled. In the past, human reliability has practically been neglected in most reliability analyses, and, when included, the humans have been modeled as a component and treated numerically the way technical components are. This approach is not wrong in itself, but it may lead to systematic errors if too simple analogies from the technical domain are used in the modeling of human behavior. In this paper redundancy in a man-machine system will be addressed. It will be shown how simplification from the technical domain, when applied to human components of a system, may give non-conservative estimates of system reliability.

Hawaii Electric System Reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2012-08-01

This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2009-01-01

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

2009-02-15

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

A discrete-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

2005-01-01

Dependability tools are becoming an indispensable tool for modeling and analyzing (critical) systems. However the growing complexity of such systems calls for increasing sophistication of these tools. Dependability tools need to not only capture the complex dynamic behavior of the system components, but they must be also easy to use, intuitive, and computationally efficient. In general, current tools have a number of shortcomings including lack of modeling power, incapacity to efficiently handle general component failure distributions, and ineffectiveness in solving large models that exhibit complex dependencies between their components. We propose a novel reliability modeling and analysis framework based on the Bayesian network (BN) formalism. The overall approach is to investigate timed Bayesian networks and to find a suitable reliability framework for dynamic systems. We have applied our methodology to two example systems and preliminary results are promising. We have defined a discrete-time BN reliability formalism and demonstrated its capabilities from a modeling and analysis point of view. This research shows that a BN based reliability formalism is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, being based on the BN formalism, the framework is easy to use and intuitive for non-experts, and provides a basis for more advanced and useful analyses such as system diagnosis

A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

2017-01-01

The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

Software engineering practices for control system reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S. K. Schaffner; K. S White

1999-01-01

This paper will discuss software engineering practices used to improve Control System reliability. The authors begin with a brief discussion of the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model (CMM) which is a framework for evaluating and improving key practices used to enhance software development and maintenance capabilities. The software engineering processes developed and used by the Controls Group at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), using the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) for accelerator control, are described. Examples are given of how their procedures have been used to minimized control system downtime and improve reliability. While their examples are primarily drawn from their experience with EPICS, these practices are equally applicable to any control system. Specific issues addressed include resource allocation, developing reliable software lifecycle processes and risk management

Fault-tolerant embedded system design and optimization considering reliability estimation uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wattanapongskorn, Naruemon; Coit, David W.

2007-01-01

In this paper, we model embedded system design and optimization, considering component redundancy and uncertainty in the component reliability estimates. The systems being studied consist of software embedded in associated hardware components. Very often, component reliability values are not known exactly. Therefore, for reliability analysis studies and system optimization, it is meaningful to consider component reliability estimates as random variables with associated estimation uncertainty. In this new research, the system design process is formulated as a multiple-objective optimization problem to maximize an estimate of system reliability, and also, to minimize the variance of the reliability estimate. The two objectives are combined by penalizing the variance for prospective solutions. The two most common fault-tolerant embedded system architectures, N-Version Programming and Recovery Block, are considered as strategies to improve system reliability by providing system redundancy. Four distinct models are presented to demonstrate the proposed optimization techniques with or without redundancy. For many design problems, multiple functionally equivalent software versions have failure correlation even if they have been independently developed. The failure correlation may result from faults in the software specification, faults from a voting algorithm, and/or related faults from any two software versions. Our approach considers this correlation in formulating practical optimization models. Genetic algorithms with a dynamic penalty function are applied in solving this optimization problem, and reasonable and interesting results are obtained and discussed

Reliability Evaluation of Service-Oriented Architecture Systems Considering Fault-Tolerance Designs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuan-Li Peng

2014-01-01

strategies. Sensitivity analysis of SOA at both coarse and fine grain levels is also studied, which can be used to efficiently identify the critical parts within the system. Two SOA system scenarios based on real industrial practices are studied. Experimental results show that the proposed SOA model can be used to accurately depict the behavior of SOA systems. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis that quantizes the effects of system structure as well as fault tolerance on the overall reliability is also studied. On the whole, the proposed reliability modeling and analysis framework may help the SOA system service provider to evaluate the overall system reliability effectively and also make smarter improvement plans by focusing resources on enhancing reliability-sensitive parts within the system.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 1: HARP introduction and user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mittal, Nitin; Boyd, Mark A.; Geist, Robert M.; Smotherman, Mark D.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested, within the aerospace community for over 8 years. Volume 1 provides an introduction to the HARP program. Comprehensive information on HARP mathematical models can be found in the references.

Reliability analysis and optimisation of subsea compression system facing operational covariate stresses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okaro, Ikenna Anthony; Tao, Longbin

2016-01-01

This paper proposes an enhanced Weibull-Corrosion Covariate model for reliability assessment of a system facing operational stresses. The newly developed model is applied to a Subsea Gas Compression System planned for offshore West Africa to predict its reliability index. System technical failure was modelled by developing a Weibull failure model incorporating a physically tested corrosion profile as stress in order to quantify the survival rate of the system under additional operational covariates including marine pH, temperature and pressure. Using Reliability Block Diagrams and enhanced Fusell-Vesely formulations, the whole system was systematically decomposed to sub-systems to analyse the criticality of each component and optimise them. Human reliability was addressed using an enhanced barrier weighting method. A rapid degradation curve is obtained on a subsea system relative to the base case subjected to a time-dependent corrosion stress factor. It reveals that subsea system components failed faster than their Mean time to failure specifications from Offshore Reliability Database as a result of cumulative marine stresses exertion. The case study demonstrated that the reliability of a subsea system can be systematically optimised by modelling the system under higher technical and organisational stresses, prioritising the critical sub-systems and making befitting provisions for redundancy and tolerances. - Highlights: • Novel Weibull Corrosion-Covariate model for reliability analysis of subsea assets. • Predict the accelerated degradation profile of a subsea gas compression. • An enhanced optimisation method based on Fusell-Vesely decomposition process. • New optimisation approach for smoothening of over- and under-designed components. • Demonstrated a significant improvement in producing more realistic failure rate.

Hawaii electric system reliability.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William

2012-09-01

This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

RELIABILITY MODELING BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA: OIL PUMP APPLICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed HAFAIFA

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The reliability analysis for industrial maintenance is now increasingly demanded by the industrialists in the world. Indeed, the modern manufacturing facilities are equipped by data acquisition and monitoring system, these systems generates a large volume of data. These data can be used to infer future decisions affecting the health facilities. These data can be used to infer future decisions affecting the state of the exploited equipment. However, in most practical cases the data used in reliability modelling are incomplete or not reliable. In this context, to analyze the reliability of an oil pump, this work proposes to examine and treat the incomplete, incorrect or aberrant data to the reliability modeling of an oil pump. The objective of this paper is to propose a suitable methodology for replacing the incomplete data using a regression method.

Final Report for the Virtual Reliability Realization System LDRD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DELLIN, THEODORE A.; HENDERSON, CHRISTOPHER L.; O' TOOLE, EDWARD J.

2000-12-01

Current approaches to reliability are not adequate to keep pace with the need for faster, better and cheaper products and systems. This is especially true in high consequence of failure applications. The original proposal for the LDRD was to look at this challenge and see if there was a new paradigm that could make reliability predictions, along with a quantitative estimate of the risk in that prediction, in a way that was faster, better and cheaper. Such an approach would be based on the underlying science models that are the backbone of reliability predictions. The new paradigm would be implemented in two software tools: the Virtual Reliability Realization System (VRRS) and the Reliability Expert System (REX). The three-year LDRD was funded at a reduced level for the first year ($120K vs. $250K) and not renewed. Because of the reduced funding, we concentrated on the initial development of the expertise system. We developed an interactive semiconductor calculation tool needed for reliability analyses. We also were able to generate a basic functional system using Microsoft Siteserver Commerce Edition and Microsoft Sequel Server. The base system has the capability to store Office documents from multiple authors, and has the ability to track and charge for usage. The full outline of the knowledge model has been incorporated as well as examples of various types of content.

Influence Of Inspection Intervals On Mechanical System Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zilberman, B.

1998-01-01

In this paper a methodology of reliability analysis of mechanical systems with latent failures is described. Reliability analysis of such systems must include appropriate usage of check intervals for latent failure detection. The methodology suggests, that based on system logic the analyst decides at the beginning if a system can fail actively or latently and propagates this approach through all system levels. All inspections are assumed to be perfect (all failures are detected and repaired and no new failures are introduced as a result of the maintenance). Additional assumptions are that mission time is much smaller, than check intervals and all components have constant failure rates. Analytical expressions for reliability calculates are provided, based on fault tree and Markov modeling techniques (for two and three redundant systems with inspection intervals). The proposed methodology yields more accurate results than are obtained by not using check intervals or using half check interval times. The conventional analysis assuming that at the beginning of each mission system is as new, give an optimistic prediction of system reliability. Some examples of reliability calculations of mechanical systems with latent failures and establishing optimum check intervals are provided

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

2007-01-01

We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yan-Fu; Zio, Enrico

2012-01-01

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

A Correlated Model for Evaluating Performance and Energy of Cloud System Given System Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongli Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The serious issue of energy consumption for high performance computing systems has attracted much attention. Performance and energy-saving have become important measures of a computing system. In the cloud computing environment, the systems usually allocate various resources (such as CPU, Memory, Storage, etc. on multiple virtual machines (VMs for executing tasks. Therefore, the problem of resource allocation for running VMs should have significant influence on both system performance and energy consumption. For different processor utilizations assigned to the VM, there exists the tradeoff between energy consumption and task completion time when a given task is executed by the VMs. Moreover, the hardware failure, software failure and restoration characteristics also have obvious influences on overall performance and energy. In this paper, a correlated model is built to analyze both performance and energy in the VM execution environment given the reliability restriction, and an optimization model is presented to derive the most effective solution of processor utilization for the VM. Then, the tradeoff between energy-saving and task completion time is studied and balanced when the VMs execute given tasks. Numerical examples are illustrated to build the performance-energy correlated model and evaluate the expected values of task completion time and consumed energy.

Supply chain reliability modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugen Zaitsev

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Today it is virtually impossible to operate alone on the international level in the logistics business. This promotes the establishment and development of new integrated business entities - logistic operators. However, such cooperation within a supply chain creates also many problems related to the supply chain reliability as well as the optimization of the supplies planning. The aim of this paper was to develop and formulate the mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Methods: The mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies were developed and formulated by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Results and conclusions: The problem of ensuring failure-free performance of goods supply channel analyzed in the paper is characteristic of distributed network systems that make active use of business process outsourcing technologies. The complex planning problem occurring in such systems that requires taking into account the consumer's requirements for failure-free performance in terms of supply volumes and correctness can be reduced to a relatively simple linear programming problem through logical analysis of the structures. The sequence of the operations, which should be taken into account during the process of the supply planning with the supplier's functional reliability, was presented.

System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Huang, Dongli [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gleicher, Frederick [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wang, Bei [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Adbel-Khalik, Hany S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-11-01

This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

Some areas of reliability technique which have been neglected to some extent - maintainability - human reliability - mechanical reliability - repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akersten, P.A.

1985-01-01

The present thesis consists of four papers, three of which are of a expositary nature and one more theoretical. The first two papers have a natural coupling to the man-machine interface. The first paper is devoted to the concept of maintainability and the role of man as maintenance technician. The second paper discusses aspects of human reliability, mainly studying man as operator. However, maintenance tasks can be studied in the same manner. The third paper concerns reliability prediction for mechanical components. This is an area of vital importance for the reliability practitioner, who needs realistic and easy-to-use mathematical models for different failure modes. The fourth paper discusses mathematical models for repairable systems, especially the problem of testing whether a constant event intensity model is adequate or not. (author)

Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mi, Jinhua; Li, Yan-Feng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2016-01-01

The appearance of macro-engineering and mega-project have led to the increasing complexity of modern electromechanical systems (EMSs). The complexity of the system structure and failure mechanism makes it more difficult for reliability assessment of these systems. Uncertainty, dynamic and nonlinearity characteristics always exist in engineering systems due to the complexity introduced by the changing environments, lack of data and random interference. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex systems. In view of the dynamic characteristics within the system, it makes use of the advantages of the dynamic fault tree (DFT) for characterizing system behaviors. The lifetime of system units can be expressed as bounded closed intervals by incorporating field failures, test data and design expertize. Then the coefficient of variation (COV) method is employed to estimate the parameters of life distributions. An extended probability-box (P-Box) is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty induced by the incomplete information about the data. By mapping the DFT into an equivalent Bayesian network (BN), relevant reliability parameters and indexes have been calculated. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method is utilized to compute the DFT model with consideration of system replacement policy. The results show that this integrated approach is more flexible and effective for assessing the reliability of complex dynamic systems. - Highlights: • A comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex system is presented. • An extended probability-box is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty. • The dynamic fault tree model is built. • Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used. • The reliability assessment of a complex electromechanical system is performed.

Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.

2006-01-01

Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

Joint interval reliability for Markov systems with an application in transmission line reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Csenki, Attila

2007-01-01

We consider Markov reliability models whose finite state space is partitioned into the set of up states U and the set of down states D . Given a collection of k disjoint time intervals I l =[t l ,t l +x l ], l=1,...,k, the joint interval reliability is defined as the probability of the system being in U for all time instances in I 1 union ... union I k . A closed form expression is derived here for the joint interval reliability for this class of models. The result is applied to power transmission lines in a two-state fluctuating environment. We use the Linux versions of the free packages Maxima and Scilab in our implementation for symbolic and numerical work, respectively

Some approaches to system reliability improvement in engineering design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Kecheng.

1990-01-01

In this thesis some approaches to system reliability improvement in engineering design are studied. In particular, the thesis aims at developing alternative methodologies for ranking of component importance which are more related to the design practice and which are more useful in system synthesis than the existing ones. It also aims at developing component reliability models by means of stress-strength interference which will enable both component reliability prediction and design for reliability. A new methodology for ranking of component importance is first developed based on the notion of the increase of the expected system yield. This methodology allows for incorporation of different improvement actions at the component level such as parallel redundancy, standby redundancy, burn-in, minimal repair and perfect replacement. For each of these improvement actions, the increase of system reliability is studied and used as the component importance measure. A possible connection between the commonly known models of component lifetimes and the stress-strength interference models is suggested. Under some general conditions the relationship between component failure rate and the stress and strength distribution characteristics is studied. A heuristic approach for obtaining bounds on failure probability through stress-strength interference is also presented. A case study and a worked example are presented, which illustrate and verify the developed importance measures and their applications in the analytical as well as synthetical work of engineering design. (author)

System reliability prediction using data from non-identical environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, B.; Ringi, M.

1997-01-01

Since information changes one's mind and probability assessments reflect one's degree of beliefs, a reliability prediction model should enclose all relevant information. Almost always ignored in existing reliability models is the dependence on component life lengths, induced by a common but unknown environment. Furthermore, existing models seldom permit learning from components' performance in similar systems, under the knowledge of non-identical operating environments. In an earlier paper by the present authors the first type of aspects were taken into account and in this paper that model is generalised so that failure data generated from several similar systems in non-identical environments may be used for the prediction of any similar system in its specific environment

Reliability model of SNS linac (spallation neutron source-ORNL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitigoi, A.; Fernandez, P.

2015-01-01

A reliability model of SNS LINAC (Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory) has been developed using risk spectrum reliability analysis software and the analysis of the accelerator system's reliability has been performed. The analysis results have been evaluated by comparing them with the SNS operational data. This paper presents the main results and conclusions focusing on the definition of design weaknesses and provides recommendations to improve reliability of the MYRRHA ( linear accelerator. The reliability results show that the most affected SNS LINAC parts/systems are: 1) SCL (superconducting linac), front-end systems: IS, LEBT (low-energy beam transport line), MEBT (medium-energy beam transport line), diagnostics and controls; 2) RF systems (especially the SCL RF system); 3) power supplies and PS controllers. These results are in line with the records in the SNS logbook. The reliability issue that needs to be enforced in the linac design is the redundancy of the systems, subsystems and components most affected by failures. For compensation purposes, there is a need for intelligent fail-over redundancy implementation in controllers. Enough diagnostics has to be implemented to allow reliable functioning of the redundant solutions and to ensure the compensation function

Systems reliability analysis: applications of the SPARCS System-Reliability Assessment Computer Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locks, M.O.

1978-01-01

SPARCS-2 (Simulation Program for Assessing the Reliabilities of Complex Systems, Version 2) is a PL/1 computer program for assessing (establishing interval estimates for) the reliability and the MTBF of a large and complex s-coherent system of any modular configuration. The system can consist of a complex logical assembly of independently failing attribute (binomial-Bernoulli) and time-to-failure (Poisson-exponential) components, without regard to their placement. Alternatively, it can be a configuration of independently failing modules, where each module has either or both attribute and time-to-failure components. SPARCS-2 also has an improved super modularity feature. Modules with minimal-cut unreliabiliy calculations can be mixed with those having minimal-path reliability calculations. All output has been standardized to system reliability or probability of success, regardless of the form in which the input data is presented, and whatever the configuration of modules or elements within modules

Reliability evaluation of deregulated electric power systems for planning applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehsani, A.; Ranjbar, A.M.; Jafari, A.; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M.

2008-01-01

In a deregulated electric power utility industry in which a competitive electricity market can influence system reliability, market risks cannot be ignored. This paper (1) proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets and (2) develops a methodology for incorporating the market reliability problem into HLII reliability studies. A Markov state space diagram is employed to evaluate the market reliability. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. The key point in the proposed method is the concept that the reliability level of a restructured electric power system can be calculated using the availability of the composite power system (HLII) and the reliability of the electricity market. Two case studies are carried out over Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to illustrate interesting features of the proposed methodology

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soszynska, Joanna

2006-01-01

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k n ' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k n ' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system

Model reliability and software quality assurance in simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oeren, T.I.; Elzas, M.S.; Sheng, G.; Wageningen Agricultural Univ., Netherlands; McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ontario)

1985-01-01

As is the case with all scientific simulation studies, computerized simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems can introduce and hide various types of errors. Frameworks to clarify issues of model reliability and software quality assurance are offered. Potential problems with reference to the main areas of concern for reliability and quality are discussed; e.g., experimental issues, decomposition, scope, fidelity, verification, requirements, testing, correctness, robustness are treated with reference to the experience gained in the past. A list comprising over 80 most common computerization errors is provided. Software tools and techniques used to detect and to correct computerization errors are discussed

Possibilities and Limitations of Applying Software Reliability Growth Models to Safety- Critical Software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol; Ha, Jae Joo

2006-01-01

As digital systems are gradually introduced to nuclear power plants (NPPs), the need of quantitatively analyzing the reliability of the digital systems is also increasing. Kang and Sung identified (1) software reliability, (2) common-cause failures (CCFs), and (3) fault coverage as the three most critical factors in the reliability analysis of digital systems. For the estimation of the safety-critical software (the software that is used in safety-critical digital systems), the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) seems to be most widely used. The use of BBNs in reliability estimation of safety-critical software is basically a process of indirectly assigning a reliability based on various observed information and experts' opinions. When software testing results or software failure histories are available, we can use a process of directly estimating the reliability of the software using various software reliability growth models such as Jelinski- Moranda model and Goel-Okumoto's nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model. Even though it is generally known that software reliability growth models cannot be applied to safety-critical software due to small number of expected failure data from the testing of safety-critical software, we try to find possibilities and corresponding limitations of applying software reliability growth models to safety critical software

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

Science.gov (United States)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

An artificial neural network for modeling reliability, availability and maintainability of a repairable system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajpal, P.S.; Shishodia, K.S.; Sekhon, G.S.

2006-01-01

The paper explores the application of artificial neural networks to model the behaviour of a complex, repairable system. A composite measure of reliability, availability and maintainability parameters has been proposed for measuring the system performance. The artificial neural network has been trained using past data of a helicopter transportation facility. It is used to simulate behaviour of the facility under various constraints. The insights obtained from results of simulation are useful in formulating strategies for optimal operation of the system

Reliability Worth Analysis of Distribution Systems Using Cascade Correlation Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heidari, Alireza; Agelidis, Vassilios; Pou, Josep

2018-01-01

Reliability worth analysis is of great importance in the area of distribution network planning and operation. The reliability worth's precision can be affected greatly by the customer interruption cost model used. The choice of the cost models can change system and load point reliability indices....... In this study, a cascade correlation neural network is adopted to further develop two cost models comprising a probabilistic distribution model and an average or aggregate model. A contingency-based analytical technique is adopted to conduct the reliability worth analysis. Furthermore, the possible effects...

Dynamic k-out-of-n system reliability with component partnership

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coit, David W.; Chatwattanasiri, Nida; Wattanapongsakorn, Naruemon; Konak, Abdullah

2015-01-01

This paper describes a new k-out-of-n system reliability model that is appropriate for certain design problems when the minimum number of required components, k, changes dynamically in response to failures to maximize the utility of the available collection of functioning components. This new model shares some distinct similarities with weighted k-out-of-n models and for some problems they produce the same result. However, there are subtle and distinct differences, and in practice, there are some complex applications have not been properly explained or modeled by traditional or extended k-out-of-n system models. For this application, components are arranged in a k-out-of-n configuration of heterogeneous components with different performance levels. Component performance is indicated by a component-specific component partnership level; the fewer partners required to operate successfully implies higher performance. The components can work collectively with partners at the same level to maintain system reliability, or they can create a partnership group with components at higher performance levels which serve as replacements to provide the necessary number of working components. When components fail, the dynamic k-out-of-n configuration maintains reliability of the system with changing k by having components create partnerships with other components at the same level or above. To demonstrate the model, a system replacement maintenance policy based on a replacement interval variable is applied to an example system to obtain the optimal replacement time. - Highlights: • A new k-out-of-n system reliability model is presented. • Components can form partnerships with other components. • The new k-out-of-n model is presented with a dynamic or changing k. • The new model is for systems with components that must work together in a group

Addressing the reliability issues of intelligent well systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drakeley, Brian; Douglas, Neil

2000-01-01

New Technology receives its fair share of 'risk aversion' both in good and not so good economic times from oil and gas operators evaluating application opportunities. This paper presents details of a strategy developed and implemented to bring to market an Intelligent Well system designed from day one to maximize system reliability, while offering the customer a high degree of choice in system functionality. A team of engineers and scientists skilled in all aspects of Reliability Analysis and Assessment analyzed the Intelligent Well system under development, gathered reliability performance data from other sources and using various analytical techniques developed matrices of system survival probability estimates for various scenarios. Interaction with the system and design engineers has been an on-going process as designs are modified to maximize reliability predictions and extensive qualification test programs developed from the component to the overall system level. The techniques used in the development project will be presented. A comparative model now exists that facilitates the evaluation of future design alternative considerations and also contains databases that can be readily updated with actual field data etc. (author)

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soszynska, Joanna [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)]. E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.pl

2006-04-15

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k {sub n}' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k {sub n}' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system.

Comparing two reliability upper bounds for multistate systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Fan C.

2005-01-01

The path-cut reliability bound due to Esary and Proschan [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 65 (1970) 329] and the minimax reliability bound due to Barlow and Proschan [Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models, 1981] for binary systems have been generalized to multistate systems by Block and Savits [J. Appl. Probab. 19 (1982) 391]. Some comparison results concerning the two multistate lower bounds for various types of multistate systems are given by Meng [Probab. Eng. Inform. Sci. 16 (2002) 485]. In this note we compare the two multistate upper bounds and present results which generalize some previous ones obtained by Maymin [J. Stat. Plan. Inference 16 (1987) 337] for binary systems. Examples are given to illustrate our results

Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Reliability - Power System - Bayes Theorem - Weibull Model - Probability. ... ensure a series of estimated parameter (failure rate, mean time to failure, function .... only on random variable r.v. describing the operating conditions: ..... Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time, Reliability Engineering.

A fast approximation method for reliability analysis of cold-standby systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Amari, Suprasad V.

2012-01-01

Analyzing reliability of large cold-standby systems has been a complicated and time-consuming task, especially for systems with components having non-exponential time-to-failure distributions. In this paper, an approximation model, which is based on the central limit theorem, is presented for the reliability analysis of binary cold-standby systems. The proposed model can estimate the reliability of large cold-standby systems with binary-state components having arbitrary time-to-failure distributions in an efficient and easy way. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are illustrated using several different types of distributions for both 1-out-of-n and k-out-of-n cold-standby systems.

A Step by Step Approach for Evaluating the Reliability of the Main Engine Lube Oil System for a Ship's Propulsion System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohan Anantharaman

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Effective and efficient maintenance is essential to ensure reliability of a ship's main propulsion system, which in turn is interdependent on the reliability of a number of associated sub- systems. A primary step in evaluating the reliability of the ship's propulsion system will be to evaluate the reliability of each of the sub- system. This paper discusses the methodology adopted to quantify reliability of one of the vital sub-system viz. the lubricating oil system, and development of a model, based on Markov analysis thereof. Having developed the model, means to improve reliability of the system should be considered. The cost of the incremental reliability should be measured to evaluate cost benefits. A maintenance plan can then be devised to achieve the higher level of reliability. Similar approach could be considered to evaluate the reliability of all other sub-systems. This will finally lead to development of a model to evaluate and improve the reliability of the main propulsion system.

Joint interval reliability for Markov systems with an application in transmission line reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Csenki, Attila [School of Computing and Mathematics, University of Bradford, Bradford, West Yorkshire, BD7 1DP (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: a.csenki@bradford.ac.uk

2007-06-15

We consider Markov reliability models whose finite state space is partitioned into the set of up states {sub U} and the set of down states {sub D}. Given a collection of k disjoint time intervals I{sub l}=[t{sub l},t{sub l}+x{sub l}], l=1,...,k, the joint interval reliability is defined as the probability of the system being in {sub U} for all time instances in I{sub 1} union ... union I{sub k}. A closed form expression is derived here for the joint interval reliability for this class of models. The result is applied to power transmission lines in a two-state fluctuating environment. We use the Linux versions of the free packages Maxima and Scilab in our implementation for symbolic and numerical work, respectively.

Software reliability models for critical applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pham, H.; Pham, M.

1991-12-01

This report presents the results of the first phase of the ongoing EG&G Idaho, Inc. Software Reliability Research Program. The program is studying the existing software reliability models and proposes a state-of-the-art software reliability model that is relevant to the nuclear reactor control environment. This report consists of three parts: (1) summaries of the literature review of existing software reliability and fault tolerant software reliability models and their related issues, (2) proposed technique for software reliability enhancement, and (3) general discussion and future research. The development of this proposed state-of-the-art software reliability model will be performed in the second place. 407 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

Software reliability models for critical applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pham, H.; Pham, M.

1991-12-01

This report presents the results of the first phase of the ongoing EG G Idaho, Inc. Software Reliability Research Program. The program is studying the existing software reliability models and proposes a state-of-the-art software reliability model that is relevant to the nuclear reactor control environment. This report consists of three parts: (1) summaries of the literature review of existing software reliability and fault tolerant software reliability models and their related issues, (2) proposed technique for software reliability enhancement, and (3) general discussion and future research. The development of this proposed state-of-the-art software reliability model will be performed in the second place. 407 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

Reliability of some ageing nuclear power plant system: a simple stochastic model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suarez-Antola, Roberto [Catholic University of Uruguay, Montevideo (Uruguay). School of Engineering and Technologies; Ministerio de Industria, Energia y Mineria, Montevideo (Uruguay). Direccion Nacional de Energia y Tecnologia Nuclear; E-mail: rsuarez@ucu.edu.uy

2007-07-01

The random number of failure-related events in certain repairable ageing systems, like certain nuclear power plant components, during a given time interval, may be often modelled by a compound Poisson distribution. One of these is the Polya-Aeppli distribution. The derivation of a stationary Polya-Aeppli distribution as a limiting distribution of rare events for stationary Bernouilli trials with first order Markov dependence is considered. But if the parameters of the Polya-Aeppli distribution are suitable time functions, we could expect that the resulting distribution would allow us to take into account the distribution of failure-related events in an ageing system. Assuming that a critical number of damages produce an emergent failure, the above mentioned results can be applied in a reliability analysis. It is natural to ask under what conditions a Polya-Aeppli distribution could be a limiting distribution for non-homogeneous Bernouilli trials with first order Markov dependence. In this paper this problem is analyzed and possible applications of the obtained results to ageing or deteriorating nuclear power plant components are considered. The two traditional ways of modelling repairable systems in reliability theory: the 'as bad as old' concept, that assumes that the replaced component is exactly under the same conditions as was the aged component before failure, and the 'as good as new' concept, that assumes that the new component is under the same conditions of the replaced component when it was new, are briefly discussed in relation with the findings of the present work. (author)

Reliability of some ageing nuclear power plant systems: a simple stochastic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suarez Antola, R.

2007-01-01

The random number of failure-related events in certain repairable ageing systems, like certain nuclear power plant components, during a given time interval, may be often modelled by a compound Poisson distribution. One of these is the Polya-Aeppli distribution. The derivation of a stationary Polya-Aeppli distribution as a limiting distribution of rare events for stationary Bernouilli trials with first order Markov dependence is considered. But if the parameters of the Polya-Aeppli distribution are suitable time functions, we could expect that the resulting distribution would allow us to take into account the distribution of failure-related events in an ageing system. Assuming that a critical number of damages produce an emergent failure, the abovementioned results can be applied in a reliability analysis. It is natural to ask under what conditions a Polya-Aeppli distribution could be a limiting distribution for non-homogeneous Bernouilli trials with first order Markov dependence. In this paper this problem is analyzed and possible applications of the obtained results to ageing or deteriorating nuclear power plant components are considered. The two traditional ways of modelling repairable systems in reliability theory: the - as bad as old - concept, that assumes that the replaced component is exactly under the same conditions as was the aged component before failure, and the - as good as new - concept, that assumes that the new component is under the same conditions of the replaced component when it was new, are briefly discussed in relation with the findings of the present work

Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

A note on reliability estimation of functionally diverse systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littlewood, B.; Popov, P.; Strigini, L.

1999-01-01

It has been argued that functional diversity might be a plausible means of claiming independence of failures between two versions of a system. We present a model of functional diversity, in the spirit of earlier models of diversity such as those of Eckhardt and Lee, and Hughes. In terms of the model, we show that the claims for independence between functionally diverse systems seem rather unrealistic. Instead, it seems likely that functionally diverse systems will exhibit positively correlated failures, and thus will be less reliable than an assumption of independence would suggest. The result does not, of course, suggest that functional diversity is not worthwhile; instead, it places upon the evaluator of such a system the onus to estimate the degree of dependence so as to evaluate the reliability of the system

Estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huovinen, T.

1989-04-01

The work aims to study the estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering. In reliability engineering continuous probability distributions have been used as models for the lifetime of technical components. We consider here the following distributions: exponential, 2-mixture exponential, conditional exponential, Weibull, lognormal and gamma. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate distributions from observed data which may be either complete or censored. We consider models based on homogeneous Poisson processes such as gamma-poisson and lognormal-poisson models for analysis of failure intensity. We study also a beta-binomial model for analysis of failure probability. The estimators of the parameters for three models are estimated by the matching moments method and in the case of gamma-poisson and beta-binomial models also by maximum likelihood method. A great deal of mathematical or statistical problems that arise in reliability engineering can be solved by utilizing point processes. Here we consider the statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes to describe the failing phenomena of a set of components with a Weibull intensity function. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the Weibull model. A common cause failure can seriously reduce the reliability of a system. We consider a binomial failure rate (BFR) model as an application of the marked point processes for modelling common cause failure in a system. The parameters of the binomial failure rate model are estimated with the maximum likelihood method

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

A Review: Passive System Reliability Analysis – Accomplishments and Unresolved Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nayak, Arun Kumar, E-mail: arunths@barc.gov.in [Reactor Engineering Division, Reactor Design and Development Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Chandrakar, Amit [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai (India); Vinod, Gopika [Reactor Safety Division, Reactor Design and Development Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

2014-10-10

Reliability assessment of passive safety systems is one of the important issues, since safety of advanced nuclear reactors rely on several passive features. In this context, a few methodologies such as reliability evaluation of passive safety system (REPAS), reliability methods for passive safety functions (RMPS), and analysis of passive systems reliability (APSRA) have been developed in the past. These methodologies have been used to assess reliability of various passive safety systems. While these methodologies have certain features in common, but they differ in considering certain issues; for example, treatment of model uncertainties, deviation of geometric, and process parameters from their nominal values. This paper presents the state of the art on passive system reliability assessment methodologies, the accomplishments, and remaining issues. In this review, three critical issues pertaining to passive systems performance and reliability have been identified. The first issue is applicability of best estimate codes and model uncertainty. The best estimate codes based phenomenological simulations of natural convection passive systems could have significant amount of uncertainties, these uncertainties must be incorporated in appropriate manner in the performance and reliability analysis of such systems. The second issue is the treatment of dynamic failure characteristics of components of passive systems. REPAS, RMPS, and APSRA methodologies do not consider dynamic failures of components or process, which may have strong influence on the failure of passive systems. The influence of dynamic failure characteristics of components on system failure probability is presented with the help of a dynamic reliability methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis of a benchmark problem of Hold-up tank shows the error in failure probability estimation by not considering the dynamism of components. It is thus suggested that dynamic reliability methodologies must be

Development of Markov model of emergency diesel generator for dynamic reliability analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Young Ho; Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

1999-02-01

The EDG (Emergency Diesal Generator) of nuclear power plant is one of the most important equipments in mitigating accidents. The FT (Fault Tree) method is widely used to assess the reliability of safety systems like an EDG in nuclear power plant. This method, however, has limitations in modeling dynamic features of safety systems exactly. We, hence, have developed a Markov model to represent the stochastic process of dynamic systems whose states change as time moves on. The Markov model enables us to develop a dynamic reliability model of EDG. This model can represent all possible states of EDG comparing to the FRANTIC code developed by U.S. NRC for the reliability analysis of standby systems. to access the regulation policy for test interval, we performed two simulations based on the generic data and plant specific data of YGN 3, respectively by using the developed model. We also estimate the effects of various repair rates and the fractions of starting failures by demand shock to the reliability of EDG. And finally, Aging effect is analyzed. (author). 23 refs., 19 figs., 9 tabs.

A New Biobjective Model to Optimize Integrated Redundancy Allocation and Reliability-Centered Maintenance Problems in a System Using Metaheuristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shima MohammadZadeh Dogahe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A novel integrated model is proposed to optimize the redundancy allocation problem (RAP and the reliability-centered maintenance (RCM simultaneously. A system of both repairable and nonrepairable components has been considered. In this system, electronic components are nonrepairable while mechanical components are mostly repairable. For nonrepairable components, a redundancy allocation problem is dealt with to determine optimal redundancy strategy and number of redundant components to be implemented in each subsystem. In addition, a maintenance scheduling problem is considered for repairable components in order to identify the best maintenance policy and optimize system reliability. Both active and cold standby redundancy strategies have been taken into account for electronic components. Also, net present value of the secondary cost including operational and maintenance costs has been calculated. The problem is formulated as a biobjective mathematical programming model aiming to reach a tradeoff between system reliability and cost. Three metaheuristic algorithms are employed to solve the proposed model: Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II, Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO, and Multiobjective Firefly Algorithm (MOFA. Several test problems are solved using the mentioned algorithms to test efficiency and effectiveness of the solution approaches and obtained results are analyzed.

A probabilistic approach to safety/reliability of space nuclear power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medford, G.; Williams, K.; Kolaczkowski, A.

1989-01-01

An ongoing effort is investigating the feasibility of using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) modeling techniques to construct a living model of a space nuclear power system. This is being done in conjunction with a traditional reliability and survivability analysis of the SP-100 space nuclear power system. The initial phase of the project consists of three major parts with the overall goal of developing a top-level system model and defining initiating events of interest for the SP-100 system. The three major tasks were performing a traditional survivability analysis, performing a simple system reliability analysis, and constructing a top-level system fault-tree model. Each of these tasks and their interim results are discussed in this paper. Initial results from the study support the conclusion that PRA modeling techniques can provide a valuable design and decision-making tool for space reactors. The ability of the model to rank and calculate relative contributions from various failure modes allows design optimization for maximum safety and reliability. Future efforts in the SP-100 program will see data development and quantification of the model to allow parametric evaluations of the SP-100 system. Current efforts have shown the need for formal data development and test programs within such a modeling framework

Composite system reliability evaluation by stochastic calculation of system operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haubrick, H -J; Hinz, H -J; Landeck, E [Dept. of Power Systems and Power Economics (Germany)

1994-12-31

This report describes a new developed probabilistic approach for steady-state composite system reliability evaluation and its exemplary application to a bulk power test system. The new computer program called PHOENIX takes into consideration transmission limitations, outages of lines and power stations and, as a central element, a highly sophisticated model to the dispatcher performing remedial actions after disturbances. The kernel of the new method is a procedure for optimal power flow calculation that has been specially adapted for the use in reliability evaluations under the above mentioned conditions. (author) 11 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

2000-01-01

Structural systems like timber trussed rafters and roof elements made of timber can be expected to have some degree of redundancy and nonlinear/plastic behaviour when the loading consists of for example snow or imposed load. In this paper this system effect is modelled and the statistic...... of variation. In the paper a stochastic model is described for the strength of a single piece of timber taking into account the stochastic variation of the strength and stiffness with length. Also stochastic models for different types of loads are formulated. First, simple representative systems with different...... types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using...

Reliability analysis of Markov history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Shijia; Zeng, Zhiguo; Cui, Lirong; Kang, Rui

2017-01-01

Markov history-dependent repairable systems refer to the Markov repairable systems in which some states are changeable and dependent on recent evolutional history of the system. In practice, many Markov history-dependent repairable systems are subjected to neglected failures, i.e., some failures do not affect system performances if they can be repaired promptly. In this paper, we develop a model based on the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to describe the history-dependent behavior and the effect of neglected failures on the Markov history-dependent repairable systems. Based on the developed model, instantaneous and steady-state availabilities are derived to characterize the reliability of the system. Four reliability-related time distributions, i.e., distribution for the k th working period, distribution for the k th failure period, distribution for the real working time in an effective working period, distribution for the neglected failure time in an effective working period, are also derived to provide a more comprehensive description of the system's reliability. Thanks to the power of the theory of aggregated stochastic processes, closed-form expressions are obtained for all the reliability indexes and time distributions. Finally, the developed indexes and analysis methods are demonstrated by a numerical example. - Highlights: • Markovian history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures is modeled. • Aggregated stochastic processes are used to derive reliability indexes and time distributions. • Closed-form expressions are derived for the considered indexes and distributions.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

Accounting for Model Uncertainties Using Reliability Methods - Application to Carbon Dioxide Geologic Sequestration System. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, Chin Man; Doughty, Christine; Zhang, Keni; Pruess, Karsten; Kiureghian, Armen; Zhang, Miao; Kaback, Dawn

2010-01-01

A new computer code, CALRELTOUGH, which uses reliability methods to incorporate parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis into subsurface flow and transport models, was developed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. in collaboration with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California at Berkeley. The CALREL reliability code was developed at the University of California at Berkely for geotechnical applications and the TOUGH family of codes was developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for subsurface flow and tranport applications. The integration of the two codes provides provides a new approach to deal with uncertainties in flow and transport modeling of the subsurface, such as those uncertainties associated with hydrogeology parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions of subsurface flow and transport using data from site characterization and monitoring for conditioning. The new code enables computation of the reliability of a system and the components that make up the system, instead of calculating the complete probability distributions of model predictions at all locations at all times. The new CALRELTOUGH code has tremendous potential to advance subsurface understanding for a variety of applications including subsurface energy storage, nuclear waste disposal, carbon sequestration, extraction of natural resources, and environmental remediation. The new code was tested on a carbon sequestration problem as part of the Phase I project. Phase iI was not awarded.

System reliability with correlated components: Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

2015-01-01

Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

System reliability with correlated components : Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, T.

2015-01-01

Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

Mass and Reliability System (MaRS)

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Sarah

2016-01-01

The Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate is responsible for mitigating risk, providing system safety, and lowering risk for space programs from ground to space. The S&MA is divided into 4 divisions: The Space Exploration Division (NC), the International Space Station Division (NE), the Safety & Test Operations Division (NS), and the Quality and Flight Equipment Division (NT). The interns, myself and Arun Aruljothi, will be working with the Risk & Reliability Analysis Branch under the NC Division's. The mission of this division is to identify, characterize, diminish, and communicate risk by implementing an efficient and effective assurance model. The team utilizes Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to ensure decisions concerning risks are informed, vehicles are safe and reliable, and program/project requirements are realistic and realized. This project pertains to the Orion mission, so it is geared toward a long duration Human Space Flight Program(s). For space missions, payload is a critical concept; balancing what hardware can be replaced by components verse by Orbital Replacement Units (ORU) or subassemblies is key. For this effort a database was created that combines mass and reliability data, called Mass and Reliability System or MaRS. The U.S. International Space Station (ISS) components are used as reference parts in the MaRS database. Using ISS components as a platform is beneficial because of the historical context and the environment similarities to a space flight mission. MaRS uses a combination of systems: International Space Station PART for failure data, Vehicle Master Database (VMDB) for ORU & components, Maintenance & Analysis Data Set (MADS) for operation hours and other pertinent data, & Hardware History Retrieval System (HHRS) for unit weights. MaRS is populated using a Visual Basic Application. Once populated, the excel spreadsheet is comprised of information on ISS components including

Reliability and optimization of structural systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoft-Christensen, P.

1987-01-01

The proceedings contain 28 papers presented at the 1st working conference. The working conference was organized by the IFIP Working Group 7.5. The proceedings also include 4 papers which were submitted, but for various reasons not presented at the working conference. The working conference was attended by 50 participants from 18 countries. The conference was the first scientific meeting of the new IFIP Working Group 7.5 on 'Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems'. The purpose of the Working Group 7.5 is to promote modern structural system optimization and reliability theory, to advance international cooperation in the field of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to stimulate research, development and application of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to further the dissemination and exchange of information on reliability and optimization of structural system optimization and reliability theory, and to encourage education in structural system optimization and reliability theory. (orig./HP)

Reliability analysis for dynamic configurations of systems with three failure modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, Hoang

1999-01-01

Analytical models for computing the reliability of dynamic configurations of systems, such as majority and k-out-of-n, assuming that units and systems are subject to three types of failures: stuck-at-0, stuck-at-1, and stuck-at-x are presented in this paper. Formulas for determining the optimal design policies that maximize the reliability of dynamic k-out-of-n configurations subject to three types of failures are defined. The comparisons of the reliability modeling functions are also obtained. The optimum system size and threshold value k that minimize the expected cost of dynamic k-out-of-n configurations are also determined

Statistical reliability assessment of software-based systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korhonen, J.; Pulkkinen, U.; Haapanen, P.

1997-01-01

Plant vendors nowadays propose software-based systems even for the most critical safety functions. The reliability estimation of safety critical software-based systems is difficult since the conventional modeling techniques do not necessarily apply to the analysis of these systems, and the quantification seems to be impossible. Due to lack of operational experience and due to the nature of software faults, the conventional reliability estimation methods can not be applied. New methods are therefore needed for the safety assessment of software-based systems. In the research project Programmable automation systems in nuclear power plants (OHA), financed together by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. This volume in the OHA-report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in OHA-report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. (orig.) (25 refs.)

French power system reliability report 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tesseron, J.M.

2009-06-01

The reliability of the French power system was fully under control in 2008, despite the power outage in the eastern part of the Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur region on November 3, which had been dreaded for several years, since it had not been possible to set up a structurally adequate network. Pursuant to a consultation meeting, the reinforcement solution proposed by RTE was approved by the Minister of Energy, boding well for greater reliability in future. Based on the observations presented in this 2008 Report, RTE's Power System Reliability Audit Mission considers that no new recommendations are needed beyond those expressed in previous reliability reports and during reliability audits. The publication of this yearly report is in keeping with RTE's goal to promote the follow-up over time of the evolution of reliability in its various aspects. RTE thus aims to contribute to the development of reliability culture, by encouraging an improved assessment by the different players (both RTE and network users) of the role they play in building reliability, and by advocating the taking into account of reliability and benchmarking in the European organisations of Transmission System Operators. Contents: 1 - Brief overview of the evolution of the internal and external environment; 2 - Operating situations encountered: climatic conditions, supply / demand balance management, operation of interconnections, management of internal congestion, contingencies affecting the transmission facilities; 3 - Evolution of the reliability reference guide: external reference guide: directives, laws, decrees, etc, ETSO, UCTE, ENTSO-E, contracting contributing to reliability, RTE internal reference guide; 4 - Evolution of measures contributing to reliability in the equipment field: intrinsic performances of components (generating sets, protection systems, operation PLC's, instrumentation and control, automatic frequency and voltage controls, transmission facilities, control systems, load

Summary of the preparation of methodology for digital system reliability analysis for PSA purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hustak, S.; Babic, P.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: Specific features of and requirements for the digital part of NPP Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems (Computer-controlled digital technologies and systems of the NPP I and C system; Specific types of digital technology failures and preventive provisions; Reliability requirements for the digital parts of I and C systems; Safety requirements for the digital parts of I and C systems; Defence-in-depth). Qualitative analyses of NPP I and C system reliability and safety (Introductory system analysis; Qualitative requirements for and proof of NPP I and C system reliability and safety). Quantitative reliability analyses of the digital parts of I and C systems (Selection of a suitable quantitative measure of digital system reliability; Selected qualitative and quantitative findings regarding digital system reliability; Use of relations among the occurrences of the various types of failure). Mathematical section in support of the calculation of the various types of indices (Boolean reliability models, Markovian reliability models). Example of digital system analysis (Description of a selected protective function and the relevant digital part of the I and C system; Functional chain examined, its components and fault tree). (P.A.)

Reliability Analysis Study of Digital Reactor Protection System in Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Xiao Ming; Liu, Tao; Tong, Jie Juan; Zhao, Jun

2011-01-01

The Digital I and C systems are believed to improve a plants safety and reliability generally. The reliability analysis of digital I and C system has become one research hotspot. Traditional fault tree method is one of means to quantify the digital I and C system reliability. Review of advanced nuclear power plant AP1000 digital protection system evaluation makes clear both the fault tree application and analysis process to the digital system reliability. One typical digital protection system special for advanced reactor has been developed, which reliability evaluation is necessary for design demonstration. The typical digital protection system construction is introduced in the paper, and the process of FMEA and fault tree application to the digital protection system reliability evaluation are described. Reliability data and bypass logic modeling are two points giving special attention in the paper. Because the factors about time sequence and feedback not exist in reactor protection system obviously, the dynamic feature of digital system is not discussed

Preliminary Analysis of LORAN-C System Reliability for Civil Aviation.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-09-01

overviev of the analysis technique. Section 3 describes the computerized LORAN-C coverage model which is used extensively in the reliability analysis...Xth Plenary Assembly, Geneva, 1963, published by International Telecomunications Union. S. Braff, R., Computer program to calculate a Karkov Chain Reliability Model, unpublished york, MITRE Corporation. A-1 I.° , 44J Ili *Y 0E 00 ...F i8 1110 Prelim inary Analysis of Program Engineering & LORAN’C System ReliabilityMaintenance Service i ~Washington. D.C.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Sproles, Darrell W.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

Reliability assessment of distribution power systems including distributed generations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Megdiche, M.

2004-12-01

Nowadays, power systems have reached a good level of reliability. Nevertheless, considering the modifications induced by the connections of small independent producers to distribution networks, there's a need to assess the reliability of these new systems. Distribution networks present several functional characteristics, highlighted by the qualitative study of the failures, as dispersed loads at several places, variable topology and some electrotechnical phenomena which must be taken into account to model the events that can occur. The adopted reliability calculations method is Monte Carlo simulations, the probabilistic method most powerful and most flexible to model complex operating of the distribution system. We devoted a first part on the case of a 20 kV feeder to which a cogeneration unit is connected. The method was applied to a software of stochastic Petri nets simulations. Then a second part related to the study of a low voltage power system supplied by dispersed generations. Here, the complexity of the events required to code the method in an environment of programming allowing the use of power system calculations (load flow, short-circuit, load shedding, management of units powers) in order to analyse the system state for each new event. (author)

Reliability modeling of digital RPS with consideration of undetected software faults

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalaquzzaman, M.; Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Man Cheol [Chung Ang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

This paper provides overview of different software reliability methodologies and proposes a technic for estimating the reliability of RPS with consideration of undetected software faults. Software reliability analysis of safety critical software has been challenging despite spending a huge effort for developing large number of software reliability models, and no consensus yet to attain on an appropriate modeling methodology. However, it is realized that the combined application of BBN based SDLC fault prediction method and random black-box testing of software would provide better ground for reliability estimation of safety critical software. Digitalizing the reactor protection system of nuclear power plant has been initiated several decades ago and now full digitalization has been adopted in the new generation of NPPs around the world because digital I and C systems have many better technical features like easier configurability and maintainability over analog I and C systems. Digital I and C systems are also drift-free and incorporation of new features is much easier. Rules and regulation for safe operation of NPPs are established and has been being practiced by the operators as well as regulators of NPPs to ensure safety. The failure mechanism of hardware and analog systems well understood and the risk analysis methods for these components and systems are well established. However, digitalization of I and C system in NPP introduces some crisis and uncertainty in reliability analysis methods of the digital systems/components because software failure mechanisms are still unclear.

Development of Probabilistic Reliability Models of Photovoltaic System Topologies for System Adequacy Evaluation

OpenAIRE

Ahmad Alferidi; Rajesh Karki

2017-01-01

The contribution of solar power in electric power systems has been increasing rapidly due to its environmentally friendly nature. Photovoltaic (PV) systems contain solar cell panels, power electronic converters, high power switching and often transformers. These components collectively play an important role in shaping the reliability of PV systems. Moreover, the power output of PV systems is variable, so it cannot be controlled as easily as conventional generation due to the unpredictable na...

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 3: HARP Graphics Oriented (GO) input user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Mittal, Nitin; Koppen, Sandra Howell

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical preprocessor Graphics Oriented (GO) program. GO is a graphical user interface for the HARP engine that enables the drawing of reliability/availability models on a monitor. A mouse is used to select fault tree gates or Markov graphical symbols from a menu for drawing.

Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helminen, A.

2001-06-01

Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

CERN Document Server

El Hami, Abdelkhalak

2015-01-01

In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

2008-07-01

In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

2008-01-01

In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. K. Kapur

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

Reliability analysis of a consecutive r-out-of-n: F system based on neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habib, Aziz; Alsieidi, Ragab; Youssef, Ghada

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a generalized Markov reliability and fault-tolerant model, which includes the effects of permanent fault and intermittent fault for reliability evaluations based on neural network techniques. The reliability of a consecutive r-out-of-n: F system was obtained with a three-layer connected neural network represents a discrete time state reliability Markov model of the system. Such that we fed the neural network with the desired reliability of the system under design. Then we extracted the parameters of the system from the neural weights at the convergence of the neural network to the desired reliability. Finally, we obtain simulation results.

An integral equation approach to the interval reliability of systems modelled by finite semi-Markov processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Csenki, A.

1995-01-01

The interval reliability for a repairable system which alternates between working and repair periods is defined as the probability of the system being functional throughout a given time interval. In this paper, a set of integral equations is derived for this dependability measure, under the assumption that the system is modelled by an irreducible finite semi-Markov process. The result is applied to the semi-Markov model of a two-unit system with sequential preventive maintenance. The method used for the numerical solution of the resulting system of integral equations is a two-point trapezoidal rule. The system of implementation is the matrix computation package MATLAB on the Apple Macintosh SE/30. The numerical results are discussed and compared with those from simulation

A Reliability Assessment Method for the VHTR Safety Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyung Sok; Jae, Moo Sung; Kim, Yong Wan

2011-01-01

The Passive safety system by very high temperature reactor which has attracted worldwide attention in the last century is the reliability safety system introduced for the improvement in the safety of the next generation nuclear power plant design. The Passive system functionality does not rely on an external source of energy, but on an intelligent use of the natural phenomena, such as gravity, conduction and radiation, which are always present. Because of these features, it is difficult to evaluate the passive safety on the risk analysis methodology having considered the existing active system failure. Therefore new reliability methodology has to be considered. In this study, the preliminary evaluation and conceptualization are tried, applying the concept of the load and capacity from the reliability physics model, designing the new passive system analysis methodology, and the trial applying to paper plant.

Stochastic models and reliability parameter estimation applicable to nuclear power plant safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitra, S.P.

1979-01-01

A set of stochastic models and related estimation schemes for reliability parameters are developed. The models are applicable for evaluating reliability of nuclear power plant systems. Reliability information is extracted from model parameters which are estimated from the type and nature of failure data that is generally available or could be compiled in nuclear power plants. Principally, two aspects of nuclear power plant reliability have been investigated: (1) The statistical treatment of inplant component and system failure data; (2) The analysis and evaluation of common mode failures. The model inputs are failure data which have been classified as either the time type of failure data or the demand type of failure data. Failures of components and systems in nuclear power plant are, in general, rare events.This gives rise to sparse failure data. Estimation schemes for treating sparse data, whenever necessary, have been considered. The following five problems have been studied: 1) Distribution of sparse failure rate component data. 2) Failure rate inference and reliability prediction from time type of failure data. 3) Analyses of demand type of failure data. 4) Common mode failure model applicable to time type of failure data. 5) Estimation of common mode failures from 'near-miss' demand type of failure data

An architectural model for software reliability quantification: sources of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smidts, C.; Sova, D.

1999-01-01

Software reliability assessment models in use today treat software as a monolithic block. An aversion towards 'atomic' models seems to exist. These models appear to add complexity to the modeling, to the data collection and seem intrinsically difficult to generalize. In 1997, we introduced an architecturally based software reliability model called FASRE. The model is based on an architecture derived from the requirements which captures both functional and nonfunctional requirements and on a generic classification of functions, attributes and failure modes. The model focuses on evaluation of failure mode probabilities and uses a Bayesian quantification framework. Failure mode probabilities of functions and attributes are propagated to the system level using fault trees. It can incorporate any type of prior information such as results of developers' testing, historical information on a specific functionality and its attributes, and, is ideally suited for reusable software. By building an architecture and deriving its potential failure modes, the model forces early appraisal and understanding of the weaknesses of the software, allows reliability analysis of the structure of the system, provides assessments at a functional level as well as at a systems' level. In order to quantify the probability of failure (or the probability of success) of a specific element of our architecture, data are needed. The term element of the architecture is used here in its broadest sense to mean a single failure mode or a higher level of abstraction such as a function. The paper surveys the potential sources of software reliability data available during software development. Next the mechanisms for incorporating these sources of relevant data to the FASRE model are identified

Exploitation examination of reliability of coal dust systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dojchinovski, Ilija; Trajkovski, Kole

1997-01-01

Designers and operators wish is, long, failure free operation at designed parameters of every system. Always we know the system start up time, but we don't know how long this system will operate successfully. Because of that in this article is given a method how, step by step, to determine the reliability of the system. Reliability parameters are obtained from experimental and operational data. When reliability parameters are determined then it is very easy to compare reliability of similar systems, for example excavators, or different systems, such as truck and rubber band transport system. Practical use of the theory of reliability is by purchasing of the systems when manufacturers have to have and present reliability parameters and on this way we can decide which system satisfies our needs regarding the quality-price-reliability. Reliability can be practically used in system operation where: 1) system reliability is maintained with proper start, use and shutdown of the system; 2) a system reliability is maintained with good maintenance organization; 3) a system reliability is maintained with innovations and improvements with final purpose removing of the imperfections experienced through the operation. Reliability is very important parameter in power generation plants. (Author)

Modeling Optimal Scheduling for Pumping System to Minimize Operation Cost and Enhance Operation Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yin Luo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional pump scheduling models neglect the operation reliability which directly relates with the unscheduled maintenance cost and the wear cost during the operation. Just for this, based on the assumption that the vibration directly relates with the operation reliability and the degree of wear, it could express the operation reliability as the normalization of the vibration level. The characteristic of the vibration with the operation point was studied, it could be concluded that idealized flow versus vibration plot should be a distinct bathtub shape. There is a narrow sweet spot (80 to 100 percent BEP to obtain low vibration levels in this shape, and the vibration also follows similar law with the square of the rotation speed without resonance phenomena. Then, the operation reliability could be modeled as the function of the capacity and rotation speed of the pump and add this function to the traditional model to form the new. And contrast with the tradition method, the result shown that the new model could fix the result produced by the traditional, make the pump operate in low vibration, then the operation reliability could increase and the maintenance cost could decrease.

Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Electrical System Based on a Probability Transfer Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hejun Yang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The electrical system of a wind farm has a significant influence on the wind farm reliability and electrical energy yield. The disconnect switch installed in an electrical system cannot only improve the operating flexibility, but also enhance the reliability for a wind farm. Therefore, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique for integrating the electrical topology structure, the isolation operation of disconnect switch, and stochastic failure of electrical equipment into the reliability assessment of wind farm electrical system. Firstly, as the traditional two-state reliability model of electrical equipment cannot consider the isolation operation, so the paper develops a three-state reliability model to replace the two-state model for incorporating the isolation operation. In addition, a proportion apportion technique is presented to evaluate the state probability. Secondly, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique based on the thoughts that through transfer the unreliability of electrical system to the energy transmission interruption of wind turbine generators (WTGs. Finally, some novel indices for describing the reliability of wind farm electrical system are designed, and the variance coefficient of the designed indices is used as a convergence criterion to determine the termination of the assessment process. The proposed technique is applied to the reliability assessment of a wind farm with the different topologies. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques are effective in practical applications.

Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

2015-11-01

Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

Diakoptical reliability analysis of transistorized systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kontoleon, J.M.; Lynn, J.W.; Green, A.E.

1975-01-01

Limitations both on high-speed core availability and computation time required for assessing the reliability of large-sized and complex electronic systems, such as used for the protection of nuclear reactors, are very serious restrictions which continuously confront the reliability analyst. Diakoptic methods simplify the solution of the electrical-network problem by subdividing a given network into a number of independent subnetworks and then interconnecting the solutions of these smaller parts by a systematic process involving transformations based on connection-matrix elements associated with the interconnecting links. However, the interconnection process is very complicated and it may be used only if the original system has been cut in such a manner that a relation can be established between the constraints appearing at both sides of the cut. Also, in dealing with transistorized systems, one of the difficulties encountered is that of modelling adequately their performance under various operating conditions, since their parameters are strongly affected by the imposed voltage and current levels. In this paper a new interconnection approach is presented which may be of use in the reliability analysis of large-sized transistorized systems. This is based on the partial optimization of the subdivisions of the torn network as well as on the optimization of the torn paths. The solution of the subdivisions is based on the principles of algebraic topology, with an algebraic structure relating the physical variables in a topological structure which defines the interconnection of the discrete elements. Transistors, and other nonlinear devices, are modelled using their actual characteristics, under normal and abnormal operating conditions. Use of so-called k factors is made to facilitate accounting for use of electrical stresses. The approach is demonstrated by way of an example. (author)

PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

Advances in reliability and system engineering

CERN Document Server

Davim, J

2017-01-01

This book presents original studies describing the latest research and developments in the area of reliability and systems engineering. It helps the reader identifying gaps in the current knowledge and presents fruitful areas for further research in the field. Among others, this book covers reliability measures, reliability assessment of multi-state systems, optimization of multi-state systems, continuous multi-state systems, new computational techniques applied to multi-state systems and probabilistic and non-probabilistic safety assessment.

Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.-Y.

2007-01-01

This study applies a novel neural-network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecast reliability in engine systems. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with the existing neural-network approaches and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. To build an effective SVR model, SVR's parameters must be set carefully. This study proposes a novel approach, known as GA-SVR, which searches for SVR's optimal parameters using real-value genetic algorithms, and then adopts the optimal parameters to construct the SVR models. A real reliability data for 40 suits of turbochargers were employed as the data set. The experimental results demonstrate that SVR outperforms the existing neural-network approaches and the traditional ARIMA models based on the normalized root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error

Reliability Analysis of Load-Sharing K-out-of-N System Considering Component Degradation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunbo Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The K-out-of-N configuration is a typical form of redundancy techniques to improve system reliability, where at least K-out-of-N components must work for successful operation of system. When the components are degraded, more components are needed to meet the system requirement, which means that the value of K has to increase. The current reliability analysis methods overestimate the reliability, because using constant K ignores the degradation effect. In a load-sharing system with degrading components, the workload shared on each surviving component will increase after a random component failure, resulting in higher failure rate and increased performance degradation rate. This paper proposes a method combining a tampered failure rate model with a performance degradation model to analyze the reliability of load-sharing K-out-of-N system with degrading components. The proposed method considers the value of K as a variable which is derived by the performance degradation model. Also, the load-sharing effect is evaluated by the tampered failure rate model. Monte-Carlo simulation procedure is used to estimate the discrete probability distribution of K. The case of a solar panel is studied in this paper, and the result shows that the reliability considering component degradation is less than that ignoring component degradation.

Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

2017-09-01

This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

Reliability of large and complex systems

CERN Document Server

Kolowrocki, Krzysztof

2014-01-01

Reliability of Large and Complex Systems, previously titled Reliability of Large Systems, is an innovative guide to the current state and reliability of large and complex systems. In addition to revised and updated content on the complexity and safety of large and complex mechanisms, this new edition looks at the reliability of nanosystems, a key research topic in nanotechnology science. The author discusses the importance of safety investigation of critical infrastructures that have aged or have been exposed to varying operational conditions. This reference provides an asympt

Reliability of EUCLIDIAN: An autonomous robotic system for image-guided prostate brachytherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Podder, Tarun K.; Buzurovic, Ivan; Huang Ke; Showalter, Timothy; Dicker, Adam P.; Yu, Yan

2011-01-01

Purpose: Recently, several robotic systems have been developed to perform accurate and consistent image-guided brachytherapy. Before introducing a new device into clinical operations, it is important to assess the reliability and mean time before failure (MTBF) of the system. In this article, the authors present the preclinical evaluation and analysis of the reliability and MTBF of an autonomous robotic system, which is developed for prostate seed implantation. Methods: The authors have considered three steps that are important in reliability growth analysis. These steps are: Identification and isolation of failures, classification of failures, and trend analysis. For any one-of-a-kind product, the reliability enhancement is accomplished through test-fix-test. The authors have used failure mode and effect analysis for collection and analysis of reliability data by identifying and categorizing the failure modes. Failures were classified according to severity. Failures that occurred during the operation of this robotic system were considered as nonhomogenous Poisson process. The failure occurrence trend was analyzed using Laplace test. For analyzing and predicting reliability growth, commonly used and widely accepted models, Duane's model and the Army Material Systems Analysis Activity, i.e., Crow's model, were applied. The MTBF was used as an important measure for assessing the system's reliability. Results: During preclinical testing, 3196 seeds (in 53 test cases) were deposited autonomously by the robot and 14 critical failures were encountered. The majority of the failures occurred during the first few cases. The distribution of failures followed Duane's postulation as well as Crow's postulation of reliability growth. The Laplace test index was -3.82 (<0), indicating a significant trend in failure data, and the failure intervals lengthened gradually. The continuous increase in the failure occurrence interval suggested a trend toward improved reliability. The MTBF

Reliability of EUCLIDIAN: An autonomous robotic system for image-guided prostate brachytherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Podder, Tarun K.; Buzurovic, Ivan; Huang Ke; Showalter, Timothy; Dicker, Adam P.; Yu, Yan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Kimmel Cancer Center (NCI-designated), Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19107 (United States)

2011-01-15

Purpose: Recently, several robotic systems have been developed to perform accurate and consistent image-guided brachytherapy. Before introducing a new device into clinical operations, it is important to assess the reliability and mean time before failure (MTBF) of the system. In this article, the authors present the preclinical evaluation and analysis of the reliability and MTBF of an autonomous robotic system, which is developed for prostate seed implantation. Methods: The authors have considered three steps that are important in reliability growth analysis. These steps are: Identification and isolation of failures, classification of failures, and trend analysis. For any one-of-a-kind product, the reliability enhancement is accomplished through test-fix-test. The authors have used failure mode and effect analysis for collection and analysis of reliability data by identifying and categorizing the failure modes. Failures were classified according to severity. Failures that occurred during the operation of this robotic system were considered as nonhomogenous Poisson process. The failure occurrence trend was analyzed using Laplace test. For analyzing and predicting reliability growth, commonly used and widely accepted models, Duane's model and the Army Material Systems Analysis Activity, i.e., Crow's model, were applied. The MTBF was used as an important measure for assessing the system's reliability. Results: During preclinical testing, 3196 seeds (in 53 test cases) were deposited autonomously by the robot and 14 critical failures were encountered. The majority of the failures occurred during the first few cases. The distribution of failures followed Duane's postulation as well as Crow's postulation of reliability growth. The Laplace test index was -3.82 (<0), indicating a significant trend in failure data, and the failure intervals lengthened gradually. The continuous increase in the failure occurrence interval suggested a trend toward

An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

2012-01-01

Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

A reliability model of the Angra 1 power system by the device of stages optimized by genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crossetti, Patricia Guimaraes

2006-01-01

This thesis proposes a probabilistic model to perform the reliability analysis of nuclear power plant systems under aging. This work analyses the Angra 1 power system. Systems subject to aging consist of components whose failure rates are not all constant, thus generating Non-Markovian models. Genetic algorithms were used for optimizing the application of the device of stages. Two approaches were used in the optimization, MCEF and MCEV. The results obtained for the Angra 1 power system show that the probability of a station blackout is negligible. (author)

Power system reliability memento; Memento de la surete du systeme electrique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-07-01

The reliability memento of the French power system (national power transmission grid) is an educational document which purpose is to point out the role of each one as regards power system operating reliability. This memento was first published in 1999. Extensive changes have taken place since then. The new 2002 edition shows that system operating reliability is as an important subject as ever: 1 - foreword; 2 - system reliability: the basics; 3 - equipment measures taken in order to guarantee the reliability of the system; 4 - organisational and human measures taken to guarantee the reliability of the system; appendix 1 - system operation: basic concepts; appendix 2 - guiding principles governing the reliability of the power system; appendix 3 - international associations of transmission system operators; appendix 4 - description of major incidents.

Reliability evaluation of power systems

CERN Document Server

Billinton, Roy

1996-01-01

The Second Edition of this well-received textbook presents over a decade of new research in power system reliability-while maintaining the general concept, structure, and style of the original volume. This edition features new chapters on the growing areas of Monte Carlo simulation and reliability economics. In addition, chapters cover the latest developments in techniques and their application to real problems. The text also explores the progress occurring in the structure, planning, and operation of real power systems due to changing ownership, regulation, and access. This work serves as a companion volume to Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Second Edition (1992).

Integrated system reliability analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...

Overcoming some limitations of imprecise reliability models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

2011-01-01

The application of imprecise reliability models is often hindered by the rapid growth in imprecision that occurs when many components constitute a system and by the fact that time to failure is bounded from above. The latter results in the necessity to explicitly introduce an upper bound on time ...

Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

CERN Document Server

Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

2013-01-01

Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

Models for reliability and management of NDT data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.

1997-01-01

In this paper the reliability of NDT measurements was approached from three directions. We have modelled the flaw sizing performance, the probability of flaw detection, and developed models to update the knowledge of true flaw size based on sequential measurement results and flaw sizing reliability model. In discussed models the measured flaw characteristics (depth, length) are assumed to be simple functions of the true characteristics and random noise corresponding to measurement errors, and the models are based on logarithmic transforms. Models for Bayesian updating of the flaw size distributions were developed. Using these models, it is possible to take into account the prior information of the flaw size and combine it with the measured results. A Bayesian approach could contribute e. g. to the definition of an appropriate combination of practical assessments and technical justifications in NDT system qualifications, as expressed by the European regulatory bodies

Non-periodic preventive maintenance with reliability thresholds for complex repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Zu-Liang; Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Fang, Chih-Chiang

2015-01-01

In general, a non-periodic condition-based PM policy with different condition variables is often more effective than a periodic age-based policy for deteriorating complex repairable systems. In this study, system reliability is estimated and used as the condition variable, and three reliability-based PM models are then developed with consideration of different scenarios which can assist in evaluating the maintenance cost for each scenario. The proposed approach provides the optimal reliability thresholds and PM schedules in advance by which the system availability and quality can be ensured and the organizational resources can be well prepared and managed. The results of the sensitivity anlysis indicate that PM activities performed at a high reliability threshold can not only significantly improve the system availability but also efficiently extend the system lifetime, although such a PM strategy is more costly than that for a low reliabiltiy threshold. The optimal reliability threshold increases along with the number of PM activities to prevent future breakdowns caused by severe deterioration, and thus substantially reduces repair costs. - Highlights: • The PM problems for repairable deteriorating systems are formulated. • The structural properties of the proposed PM models are investigated. • The corresponding algorithms to find the optimal PM strategies are provided. • Imperfect PM activities are allowed to reduce the occurences of breakdowns. • Provide managers with insights about the critical factors in the planning stage

Guidelines for reliability analysis of digital systems in PSA context. Phase 1 status report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Authen, S.; Larsson, J.; Bjoerkman, K.; Holmberg, J.-E.

2010-12-01

Digital protection and control systems are appearing as upgrades in older nuclear power plants (NPPs) and are commonplace in new NPPs. To assess the risk of NPP operation and to determine the risk impact of digital system upgrades on NPPs, quantitative reliability models are needed for digital systems. Due to the many unique attributes of these systems, challenges exist in systems analysis, modeling and in data collection. Currently there is no consensus on reliability analysis approaches. Traditional methods have clearly limitations, but more dynamic approaches are still in trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The number of PSAs worldwide including reliability models of digital I and C systems are few. A comparison of Nordic experiences and a literature review on main international references have been performed in this pre-study project. The study shows a wide range of approaches, and also indicates that no state-of-the-art currently exists. The study shows areas where the different PSAs agree and gives the basis for development of a common taxonomy for reliability analysis of digital systems. It is still an open matter whether software reliability needs to be explicitly modelled in the PSA. The most important issue concerning software reliability is proper descriptions of the impact that software-based systems has on the dependence between the safety functions and the structure of accident sequences. In general the conventional fault tree approach seems to be sufficient for modelling reactor protection system kind of functions. The following focus areas have been identified for further activities: 1. Common taxonomy of hardware and software failure modes of digital components for common use 2. Guidelines regarding level of detail in system analysis and screening of components, failure modes and dependencies 3. Approach for modelling of CCF between components (including software). (Author)

Guidelines for reliability analysis of digital systems in PSA context. Phase 1 status report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Authen, S.; Larsson, J. (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Bjoerkman, K.; Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT, Helsingfors (Finland))

2010-12-15

Digital protection and control systems are appearing as upgrades in older nuclear power plants (NPPs) and are commonplace in new NPPs. To assess the risk of NPP operation and to determine the risk impact of digital system upgrades on NPPs, quantitative reliability models are needed for digital systems. Due to the many unique attributes of these systems, challenges exist in systems analysis, modeling and in data collection. Currently there is no consensus on reliability analysis approaches. Traditional methods have clearly limitations, but more dynamic approaches are still in trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The number of PSAs worldwide including reliability models of digital I and C systems are few. A comparison of Nordic experiences and a literature review on main international references have been performed in this pre-study project. The study shows a wide range of approaches, and also indicates that no state-of-the-art currently exists. The study shows areas where the different PSAs agree and gives the basis for development of a common taxonomy for reliability analysis of digital systems. It is still an open matter whether software reliability needs to be explicitly modelled in the PSA. The most important issue concerning software reliability is proper descriptions of the impact that software-based systems has on the dependence between the safety functions and the structure of accident sequences. In general the conventional fault tree approach seems to be sufficient for modelling reactor protection system kind of functions. The following focus areas have been identified for further activities: 1. Common taxonomy of hardware and software failure modes of digital components for common use 2. Guidelines regarding level of detail in system analysis and screening of components, failure modes and dependencies 3. Approach for modelling of CCF between components (including software). (Author)

Incorporating Cyber Layer Failures in Composite Power System Reliability Evaluations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuqi Han

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to analyze the impacts of cyber layer failures (i.e., protection failures and monitoring failures on the reliability evaluation of composite power systems. The reliability and availability of the cyber layer and its protection and monitoring functions with various topologies are derived based on a reliability block diagram method. The availability of the physical layer components are modified via a multi-state Markov chain model, in which the component protection and monitoring strategies, as well as the cyber layer topology, are simultaneously considered. Reliability indices of composite power systems are calculated through non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation. Case studies demonstrate that operational reliability downgrades in cyber layer function failure situations. Moreover, protection function failures have more significant impact on the downgraded reliability than monitoring function failures do, and the reliability indices are especially sensitive to the change of the cyber layer function availability in the range from 0.95 to 1.

Reliability Analysis Multiple Redundancy Controller for Nuclear Safety Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Gwangseop; Kim, Donghoon; Son, Choulwoong

2013-01-01

This controller is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). The architecture of MRC is briefly described, and the Markov model is developed. Based on the model, the reliability and Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) are analyzed. In this paper, the architecture of MRC for nuclear safety systems is described. The MRC is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). Markov models for MRC architecture was developed, and then the reliability was analyzed by using the model. From the reliability analyses for the MRC, it is obtained that the failure rate of each module in the MRC should be less than 2 Χ 10 -4 /hour and the MTTF average increase rate depending on FCF increment, i. e. ΔMTTF/ΔFCF, is 4 months/0.1

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

System Statement of Tasks of Calculating and Providing the Reliability of Heating Cogeneration Plants in Power Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Biryuk, V. V.; Tsapkova, A. B.; Larin, E. A.; Livshiz, M. Y.; Sheludko, L. P.

2018-01-01

A set of mathematical models for calculating the reliability indexes of structurally complex multifunctional combined installations in heat and power supply systems was developed. Reliability of energy supply is considered as required condition for the creation and operation of heat and power supply systems. The optimal value of the power supply system coefficient F is based on an economic assessment of the consumers’ loss caused by the under-supply of electric power and additional system expences for the creation and operation of an emergency capacity reserve. Rationing of RI of the industrial heat supply is based on the use of concept of technological margin of safety of technological processes. The definition of rationed RI values of heat supply of communal consumers is based on the air temperature level iside the heated premises. The complex allows solving a number of practical tasks for providing reliability of heat supply for consumers. A probabilistic model is developed for calculating the reliability indexes of combined multipurpose heat and power plants in heat-and-power supply systems. The complex of models and calculation programs can be used to solve a wide range of specific tasks of optimization of schemes and parameters of combined heat and power plants and systems, as well as determining the efficiency of various redundance methods to ensure specified reliability of power supply.

Reliability and accuracy of Crystaleye spectrophotometric system.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Li; Tan, Jian Guo; Zhou, Jian Feng; Yang, Xu; Du, Yang; Wang, Fang Ping

2010-01-01

to develop an in vitro shade-measuring model to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the Crystaleye spectrophotometric system, a newly developed spectrophotometer. four shade guides, VITA Classical, VITA 3D-Master, Chromascop and Vintage Halo NCC, were measured with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer in a standardised model, ten times for 107 shade tabs. The shade-matching results and the CIE L*a*b* values of the cervical, body and incisal regions for each measurement were automatically analysed using the supporting software. Reliability and accuracy were calculated for each shade tab both in percentage and in colour difference (ΔE). Difference was analysed by one-way ANOVA in the cervical, body and incisal regions. range of reliability was 88.81% to 98.97% and 0.13 to 0.24 ΔE units, and that of accuracy was 44.05% to 91.25% and 1.03 to 1.89 ΔE units. Significant differences in reliability and accuracy were found between the body region and the cervical and incisal regions. Comparisons made among regions and shade guides revealed that evaluation in ΔE was prone to disclose the differences. measurements with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer had similar, high reliability in different shade guides and regions, indicating predictable repeated measurements. Accuracy in the body region was high and less variable compared with the cervical and incisal regions.

Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

2017-01-01

The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Reliability analysis of a complex standby redundant systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, R.; Anantharaman, V.

1995-01-01

In any redundant system, the state of the standby unit is usually taken to be hot, warm or cold. In this paper, we present a new model of a two unit standby system wherein the standby unit is put in cold state for a certain amount of time before it is allowed to become warm. Upon failure of the online unit, the standby unit, if in warm state, instantaneously starts operating online; if it is in cold state, an emergency switching is made which takes it to warm state (and hence online) either instantaneously or non-instantaneously--each with some probability; if it is under repair, the system breaks down. Assuming all the associated distributions to be general except that of the life time of the standby unit in the warm state, various reliability characteristics that are of interest to reliability engineers and system designers are derived. A comprehensive cost function is also constructed and is then optimized with respect to three different control parameters numerically. In addition numerical results are presented to illustrate the behaviour of the various reliability characteristics derived

Human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1987-01-01

Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hua-Feng He

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We attempt to address the issues associated with reliability estimation for phased-mission systems (PMS and present a novel data-driven approach to achieve reliability estimation for PMS using the condition monitoring information and degradation data of such system under dynamic operating scenario. In this sense, this paper differs from the existing methods only considering the static scenario without using the real-time information, which aims to estimate the reliability for a population but not for an individual. In the presented approach, to establish a linkage between the historical data and real-time information of the individual PMS, we adopt a stochastic filtering model to model the phase duration and obtain the updated estimation of the mission time by Bayesian law at each phase. At the meanwhile, the lifetime of PMS is estimated from degradation data, which are modeled by an adaptive Brownian motion. As such, the mission reliability can be real time obtained through the estimated distribution of the mission time in conjunction with the estimated lifetime distribution. We demonstrate the usefulness of the developed approach via a numerical example.

A rule induction approach to improve Monte Carlo system reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocco S, Claudio M.

2003-01-01

A Decision Tree (DT) approach to build empirical models for use in Monte Carlo reliability evaluation is presented. The main idea is to develop an estimation algorithm, by training a model on a restricted data set, and replacing the Evaluation Function (EF) by a simpler calculation, which provides reasonably accurate model outputs. The proposed approach is illustrated with two systems of different size, represented by their equivalent networks. The robustness of the DT approach as an approximated method to replace the EF is also analysed. Excellent system reliability results are obtained by training a DT with a small amount of information

Building and integrating reliability models in a Reliability-Centered-Maintenance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verite, B.; Villain, B.; Venturini, V.; Hugonnard, S.; Bryla, P.

1998-03-01

Electricite de France (EDF) has recently developed its OMF-Structures method, designed to optimize preventive maintenance of passive structures such as pipes and support, based on risk. In particular, reliability performances of components need to be determined; it is a two-step process, consisting of a qualitative sort followed by a quantitative evaluation, involving two types of models. Initially, degradation models are widely used to exclude some components from the field of preventive maintenance. The reliability of the remaining components is then evaluated by means of quantitative reliability models. The results are then included in a risk indicator that is used to directly optimize preventive maintenance tasks. (author)

Photovoltaic Reliability Performance Model v 2.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-12-16

PV-RPM is intended to address more “real world” situations by coupling a photovoltaic system performance model with a reliability model so that inverters, modules, combiner boxes, etc. can experience failures and be repaired (or left unrepaired). The model can also include other effects, such as module output degradation over time or disruptions such as electrical grid outages. In addition, PV-RPM is a dynamic probabilistic model that can be used to run many realizations (i.e., possible future outcomes) of a system’s performance using probability distributions to represent uncertain parameter inputs.

Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

2010-02-15

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soszynska, Joanna

2010-01-01

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

Quantitative reliability assessment for safety critical system software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Dae Won; Kwon, Soon Man

2005-01-01

An essential issue in the replacement of the old analogue I and C to computer-based digital systems in nuclear power plants is the quantitative software reliability assessment. Software reliability models have been successfully applied to many industrial applications, but have the unfortunate drawback of requiring data from which one can formulate a model. Software which is developed for safety critical applications is frequently unable to produce such data for at least two reasons. First, the software is frequently one-of-a-kind, and second, it rarely fails. Safety critical software is normally expected to pass every unit test producing precious little failure data. The basic premise of the rare events approach is that well-tested software does not fail under normal routine and input signals, which means that failures must be triggered by unusual input data and computer states. The failure data found under the reasonable testing cases and testing time for these conditions should be considered for the quantitative reliability assessment. We will present the quantitative reliability assessment methodology of safety critical software for rare failure cases in this paper

Application of fault tree analysis for customer reliability assessment of a distribution power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul Rahman, Fariz; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Lee, John C.

2013-01-01

A new method is developed for predicting customer reliability of a distribution power system using the fault tree approach with customer weighted values of component failure frequencies and downtimes. Conventional customer reliability prediction of the electric grid employs the system average (SA) component failure frequency and downtime that are weighted by only the quantity of the components in the system. These SA parameters are then used to calculate the reliability and availability of components in the system, and eventually to find the effect on customer reliability. Although this approach is intuitive, information is lost regarding customer disturbance experiences when customer information is not utilized in the SA parameter calculations, contributing to inaccuracies when predicting customer reliability indices in our study. Hence our new approach directly incorporates customer disturbance information in component failure frequency and downtime calculations by weighting these parameters with information of customer interruptions. This customer weighted (CW) approach significantly improves the prediction of customer reliability indices when applied to our reliability model with fault tree and two-state Markov chain formulations. Our method has been successfully applied to an actual distribution power system that serves over 2.1 million customers. Our results show an improved benchmarking performance on the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) by 26% between the SA-based and CW-based reliability calculations. - Highlights: ► We model the reliability of a power system with fault tree and two-state Markov chain. ► We propose using customer weighted component failure frequencies and downtimes. ► Results show customer weighted values perform superior to component average values. ► This method successfully incorporates customer disturbance information into the model.

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

OpenAIRE

Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

2016-01-01

Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

Systems reliability Benchmark exercise part 1-Description and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amendola, A.

1986-01-01

The report describes aims, rules and results of the Systems Reliability Benchmark Exercise, which has been performed in order to assess methods and procedures for reliability analysis of complex systems and involved a large number of European organizations active in NPP safety evaluation. The exercise included both qualitative and quantitative methods and was structured in such a way that separation of the effects of uncertainties in modelling and in data on the overall spread was made possible. Part I describes the way in which RBE has been performed, its main results and conclusions

Reliability-Based Inspection Planning for Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1993-01-01

A general model for reliability-based optimal inspection and repair strategies for structural systems is described. The total expected costs in the design lifetime is minimized with the number of inspections, the inspection times and efforts as decision variables. The equivalence of this model...... with a preposterior analysis from statistical decision theory is discussed. It is described how information obtained by an inspection can be used in a repair decision. Stochastic models for inspection, measurement and repair actions are presented. The general model is applied for inspection and repair planning...

Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walter, G.M.; Aslett, L.J.M.; Coolen, F.P.A.

2016-01-01

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through bounds on the functioning probability. Given component level test

76 FR 42534 - Mandatory Reliability Standards for Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits; System...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-19

... Reliability Operating Limits; System Restoration Reliability Standards AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory... data necessary to analyze and monitor Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits (IROL) within its... Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits, Order No. 748, 134 FERC ] 61,213 (2011). \\2\\ The term ``Wide-Area...

Data Used in Quantified Reliability Models

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, Diana; Kleinhammer, Roger K.; Kahn, C. J.

2014-01-01

Data is the crux to developing quantitative risk and reliability models, without the data there is no quantification. The means to find and identify reliability data or failure numbers to quantify fault tree models during conceptual and design phases is often the quagmire that precludes early decision makers consideration of potential risk drivers that will influence design. The analyst tasked with addressing a system or product reliability depends on the availability of data. But, where is does that data come from and what does it really apply to? Commercial industries, government agencies, and other international sources might have available data similar to what you are looking for. In general, internal and external technical reports and data based on similar and dissimilar equipment is often the first and only place checked. A common philosophy is "I have a number - that is good enough". But, is it? Have you ever considered the difference in reported data from various federal datasets and technical reports when compared to similar sources from national and/or international datasets? Just how well does your data compare? Understanding how the reported data was derived, and interpreting the information and details associated with the data is as important as the data itself.

Reliable actuators for twin rotor MIMO system

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Vidya S.; V. I, George; Kamath, Surekha; Shreesha, C.

2017-11-01

Twin Rotor MIMO System (TRMS) is a bench mark system to test flight control algorithms. One of the perturbations on TRMS which is likely to affect the control system is actuator failure. Therefore, there is a need for a reliable control system, which includes H infinity controller along with redundant actuators. Reliable control refers to the design of a control system to tolerate failures of a certain set of actuators or sensors while retaining desired control system properties. Output of reliable controller has to be transferred to the redundant actuator effectively to make the TRMS reliable even under actual actuator failure.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popescu V.S.

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

Science.gov (United States)

White, Allan L.

2012-01-01

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

Multi-state reliability for coolant pump based on dependent competitive failure model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shang Yanlong; Cai Qi; Zhao Xinwen; Chen Ling

2013-01-01

By taking into account the effect of degradation due to internal vibration and external shocks. and based on service environment and degradation mechanism of nuclear power plant coolant pump, a multi-state reliability model of coolant pump was proposed for the system that involves competitive failure process between shocks and degradation. Using this model, degradation state probability and system reliability were obtained under the consideration of internal vibration and external shocks for the degraded coolant pump. It provided an effective method to reliability analysis for coolant pump in nuclear power plant based on operating environment. The results can provide a decision making basis for design changing and maintenance optimization. (authors)

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai An

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

Application of modern reliability database techniques to military system data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunea, Cornel; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Sarkani, Shahram; Chang, H.-C.

2008-01-01

This paper focuses on analysis techniques of modern reliability databases, with an application to military system data. The analysis of military system data base consists of the following steps: clean the data and perform operation on it in order to obtain good estimators; present simple plots of data; analyze the data with statistical and probabilistic methods. Each step is dealt with separately and the main results are presented. Competing risks theory is advocated as the mathematical support for the analysis. The general framework of competing risks theory is presented together with simple independent and dependent competing risks models available in literature. These models are used to identify the reliability and maintenance indicators required by the operating personnel. Model selection is based on graphical interpretation of plotted data

Towards Reliable Integrated Services for Dependable Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

Reliability issues for various technical systems are discussed and focus is directed towards distributed systems, where communication facilities are vital to maintain system functionality. Reliability in communication subsystems is considered as a resource to be shared among a number of logical c...... applications residing on alternative routes. Details are provided for the operation of RRRSVP based on reliability slack calculus. Conclusions summarize the considerations and give directions for future research....... connections and a reliability management framework is suggested. We suggest a network layer level reliability management protocol RRSVP (Reliability Resource Reservation Protocol) as a counterpart of the RSVP for bandwidth and time resource management. Active and passive standby redundancy by background...

Towards Reliable Integrated Services for Dependable Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

2003-01-01

Reliability issues for various technical systems are discussed and focus is directed towards distributed systems, where communication facilities are vital to maintain system functionality. Reliability in communication subsystems is considered as a resource to be shared among a number of logical c...... applications residing on alternative routes. Details are provided for the operation of RRRSVP based on reliability slack calculus. Conclusions summarize the considerations and give directions for future research....... connections and a reliability management framework is suggested. We suggest a network layer level reliability management protocol RRSVP (Reliability Resource Reservation Protocol) as a counterpart of the RSVP for bandwidth and time resource management. Active and passive standby redundancy by background...

Operational safety system reliability. Progress report, November 15, 1975--May 14, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hockenbury, R.W.; Yeater, M.L.

1976-05-01

The report describes the objectives and present status of a study concerning the operational reliability of nuclear power plants. The purpose of the study is to develop utilitarian models for use with the Liquid-Metal-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor; initial testing of the formalism can be carried out with LWR operational data. Methods are being directed towards (1) day-to-day operation of the nuclear plant protection system and (2) to better understand the protection system sensor characteristics in order to anticipate off-normal conditions. The initial models now underway are based on moment-matching, confidence bounding, and convolution methods in the case of the protection system reliability, and for the sensor response function, a convolution of component reliability probability distributions and noise signatures

Multi-state reliability for pump group in system based on UGF and semi-Markov process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shang Yanlong; Cai Qi; Zhao Xinwen; Chen Ling

2012-01-01

In this paper, multi-state reliability value of pump group in nuclear power system is obtained by the combination method of the universal generating function (UGF) and Semi-Markov process. UGF arithmetic model of multi-state system reliability is studied, and the performance state probability expression of multi-state component is derived using semi-Markov theory. A quantificational model is defined to express the performance rate of the system and component. Different availability results by multi-state and binary state analysis method are compared under the condition whether the performance rate can satisfy the demanded value, and the mean value of system instantaneous output performance is also obtained. It shows that this combination method is an effective and feasible one which can quantify the effect of the partial failure on the system reliability, and the result of multi-state system reliability by this method deduces the modesty of the reliability value obtained by binary reliability analysis method. (authors)

Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2007-01-01

Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

Windfarm generation assessment for reliability analysis of power systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

2007-01-01

Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

Real-Time Reliability Verification for UAV Flight Control System Supporting Airworthiness Certification.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Haiyang; Wang, Ping

2016-01-01

In order to verify the real-time reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight control system and comply with the airworthiness certification standard, we proposed a model-based integration framework for modeling and verification of time property. Combining with the advantages of MARTE, this framework uses class diagram to create the static model of software system, and utilizes state chart to create the dynamic model. In term of the defined transformation rules, the MARTE model could be transformed to formal integrated model, and the different part of the model could also be verified by using existing formal tools. For the real-time specifications of software system, we also proposed a generating algorithm for temporal logic formula, which could automatically extract real-time property from time-sensitive live sequence chart (TLSC). Finally, we modeled the simplified flight control system of UAV to check its real-time property. The results showed that the framework could be used to create the system model, as well as precisely analyze and verify the real-time reliability of UAV flight control system.

Reliability assessment of distribution system with the integration of renewable distributed generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adefarati, T.; Bansal, R.C.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Addresses impacts of renewable DG on the reliability of the distribution system. • Multi-objective formulation for maximizing the cost saving with integration of DG. • Uses Markov model to study the stochastic characteristics of the major components. • The investigation is done using modified RBTS bus test distribution system. • Proposed approach is useful for electric utilities to enhance the reliability. - Abstract: Recent studies have shown that renewable energy resources will contribute substantially to future energy generation owing to the rapid depletion of fossil fuels. Wind and solar energy resources are major sources of renewable energy that have the ability to reduce the energy crisis and the greenhouse gases emitted by the conventional power plants. Reliability assessment is one of the key indicators to measure the impact of the renewable distributed generation (DG) units in the distribution networks and to minimize the cost that is associated with power outage. This paper presents a comprehensive reliability assessment of the distribution system that satisfies the consumer load requirements with the penetration of wind turbine generator (WTG), electric storage system (ESS) and photovoltaic (PV). A Markov model is proposed to access the stochastic characteristics of the major components of the renewable DG resources as well as their influence on the reliability of a conventional distribution system. The results obtained from the case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of using WTG, ESS and PV to enhance the reliability of the conventional distribution system.

Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phuc Do Van [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)], E-mail: anne.barros@utt.fr; Berenguer, Christophe [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)

2008-11-15

Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies.

Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phuc Do Van; Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe

2008-01-01

Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ENTROPY METHOD FOR SYSTEM CONSISTED OF IDENTICAL EXPONENTIAL UNITS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Sun Youchao; Shi Jun

2004-01-01

The reliability assessment of unit-system near two levels is the most important content in the reliability multi-level synthesis of complex systems. Introducing the information theory into system reliability assessment, using the addible characteristic of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, an entropy method of data information conversion is presented for the system consisted of identical exponential units. The basic conversion formulae of entropy method of unit test data are derived based on the principle of information quantity equivalence. The general models of entropy method synthesis assessment for system reliability approximate lower limits are established according to the fundamental principle of the unit reliability assessment. The applications of the entropy method are discussed by way of practical examples. Compared with the traditional methods, the entropy method is found to be valid and practicable and the assessment results are very satisfactory.

Reliability analysis of service water system under earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Yu; Qian Xiaoming; Lu Xuefeng; Wang Shengfei; Niu Fenglei

2013-01-01

Service water system is one of the important safety systems in nuclear power plant, whose failure probability is always gained by system reliability analysis. The probability of equipment failure under the earthquake is the function of the peak acceleration of earthquake motion, while the occurrence of earthquake is of randomicity, thus the traditional fault tree method in current probability safety assessment is not powerful enough to deal with such case of conditional probability problem. An analysis frame was put forward for system reliability evaluation in seismic condition in this paper, in which Monte Carlo simulation was used to deal with conditional probability problem. Annual failure probability of service water system was calculated, and failure probability of 1.46X10 -4 per year was obtained. The analysis result is in accordance with the data which indicate equipment seismic resistance capability, and the rationality of the model is validated. (authors)

Reliability analysis and assessment of structural systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, J.T.P.; Anderson, C.A.

1977-01-01

The study of structural reliability deals with the probability of having satisfactory performance of the structure under consideration within any specific time period. To pursue this study, it is necessary to apply available knowledge and methodology in structural analysis (including dynamics) and design, behavior of materials and structures, experimental mechanics, and the theory of probability and statistics. In addition, various severe loading phenomena such as strong motion earthquakes and wind storms are important considerations. For three decades now, much work has been done on reliability analysis of structures, and during this past decade, certain so-called 'Level I' reliability-based design codes have been proposed and are in various stages of implementation. These contributions will be critically reviewed and summarized in this paper. Because of the undesirable consequences resulting from the failure of nuclear structures, it is important and desirable to consider the structural reliability in the analysis and design of these structures. Moreover, after these nuclear structures are constructed, it is desirable for engineers to be able to assess the structural reliability periodically as well as immediately following the occurrence of severe loading conditions such as a strong-motion earthquake. During this past decade, increasing use has been made of techniques of system identification in structural engineering. On the basis of non-destructive test results, various methods have been developed to obtain an adequate mathematical model (such as the equations of motion with more realistic parameters) to represent the structural system

Component reliability for electronic systems

CERN Document Server

Bajenescu, Titu-Marius I

2010-01-01

The main reason for the premature breakdown of today's electronic products (computers, cars, tools, appliances, etc.) is the failure of the components used to build these products. Today professionals are looking for effective ways to minimize the degradation of electronic components to help ensure longer-lasting, more technically sound products and systems. This practical book offers engineers specific guidance on how to design more reliable components and build more reliable electronic systems. Professionals learn how to optimize a virtual component prototype, accurately monitor product reliability during the entire production process, and add the burn-in and selection procedures that are the most appropriate for the intended applications. Moreover, the book helps system designers ensure that all components are correctly applied, margins are adequate, wear-out failure modes are prevented during the expected duration of life, and system interfaces cannot lead to failure.

Characterization of System Level Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Travel Time Reliability for Urban Networks : Modelling and Empirics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zheng, F.; Liu, Xiaobo; van Zuylen, H.J.; Li, Jie; Lu, Chao

2017-01-01

The importance of travel time reliability in traffic management, control, and network design has received a lot of attention in the past decade. In this paper, a network travel time distribution model based on the Johnson curve system is proposed. The model is applied to field travel time data

DESIGN OF WATER-COOLED PACKAGED AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEMS BASED ON RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

関口, 圭輔; 中尾, 正喜; 藁谷, 至誠; 植草, 常雄; 羽山, 広文

2007-01-01

Water-cooled packaged air-conditioning systems are reevaluated in terms of alleviating the heat island phenomenon in cities and effectively utilizing building rooftops. Up to now, such reliability assessment has been insufficient, and this has limited the use of this kind of air-conditioning system in the information and communications sectors that demand a high reliability. This work has led to the development of a model for evaluating the reliability of water-cooled package air-conditioning...

Modeling high-Power Accelerators Reliability-SNS LINAC (SNS-ORNL); MAX LINAC (MYRRHA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitigoi, A. E.; Fernandez Ramos, P.

2013-01-01

Improving reliability has recently become a very important objective in the field of particle accelerators. The particle accelerators in operation are constantly undergoing modifications, and improvements are implemented using new technologies, more reliable components or redundant schemes (to obtain more reliability, strength, more power, etc.) A reliability model of SNS (Spallation Neutron Source) LINAC has been developed within MAX project and analysis of the accelerator systems reliability has been performed within the MAX project, using the Risk Spectrum reliability analysis software. The analysis results have been evaluated by comparison with the SNS operational data. Results and conclusions are presented in this paper, oriented to identify design weaknesses and provide recommendations for improving reliability of MYRRHA linear accelerator. The SNS reliability model developed for the MAX preliminary design phase indicates possible avenues for further investigation that could be needed to improve the reliability of the high-power accelerators, in view of the future reliability targets of ADS accelerators.

Aviation Fuel System Reliability and Fail-Safety Analysis. Promising Alternative Ways for Improving the Fuel System Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Shumilov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with design requirements for an aviation fuel system (AFS, AFS basic design requirements, reliability, and design precautions to avoid AFS failure. Compares the reliability and fail-safety of AFS and aircraft hydraulic system (AHS, considers the promising alternative ways to raise reliability of fuel systems, as well as elaborates recommendations to improve reliability of the pipeline system components and pipeline systems, in general, based on the selection of design solutions.It is extremely advisable to design the AFS and AHS in accordance with Aviation Regulations АП25 and Accident Prevention Guidelines, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Association, which will reduce risk of emergency situations, and in some cases even avoid heavy disasters.ATS and AHS designs should be based on the uniform principles to ensure the highest reliability and safety. However, currently, this principle is not enough kept, and AFS looses in reliability and fail-safety as compared with AHS. When there are the examined failures (single and their combinations the guidelines to ensure the AFS efficiency should be the same as those of norm-adopted in the Regulations АП25 for AHS. This will significantly increase reliability and fail-safety of the fuel systems and aircraft flights, in general, despite a slight increase in AFS mass.The proposed improvements through the use of components redundancy of the fuel system will greatly raise reliability of the fuel system of a passenger aircraft, which will, without serious consequences for the flight, withstand up to 2 failures, its reliability and fail-safety design will be similar to those of the AHS, however, above improvement measures will lead to a slightly increasing total mass of the fuel system.It is advisable to set a second pump on the engine in parallel with the first one. It will run in case the first one fails for some reasons. The second pump, like the first pump, can be driven from the

Reliability and protection against failure in computer systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, B.K.

1979-01-01

Computers are being increasingly integrated into the control and safety systems of large and potentially hazardous industrial processes. This development introduces problems which are particular to computer systems and opens the way to new techniques of solving conventional reliability and availability problems. References to the developing fields of software reliability, human factors and software design are given, and these subjects are related, where possible, to the quantified assessment of reliability. Original material is presented in the areas of reliability growth and computer hardware failure data. The report draws on the experience of the National Centre of Systems Reliability in assessing the capability and reliability of computer systems both within the nuclear industry, and from the work carried out in other industries by the Systems Reliability Service. (author)

Models on reliability of non-destructive testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

1998-01-01

The reliability of ultrasonic inspections has been studied in e.g. international PISC (Programme for the Inspection of Steel Components) exercises. These exercises have produced a large amount of information on the effect of various factors on the reliability of inspections. The information obtained from reliability experiments are used to model the dependency of flaw detection probability on various factors and to evaluate the performance of inspection equipment, including the sizing accuracy. The information from experiments is utilised in a most effective way when mathematical models are applied. Here, some statistical models for reliability of non-destructive tests are introduced. In order to demonstrate the use of inspection reliability models, they have been applied to the inspection results of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) type flaws in PISC III exercise (PISC 1995). The models are applied to both flaw detection frequency data of all inspection teams and to flaw sizing data of one participating team. (author)

Modeling the bathtub shape hazard rate function in terms of reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, K.S.; Hsu, F.S.; Liu, P.P.

2002-01-01

In this paper, a general form of bathtub shape hazard rate function is proposed in terms of reliability. The degradation of system reliability comes from different failure mechanisms, in particular those related to (1) random failures, (2) cumulative damage, (3) man-machine interference, and (4) adaptation. The first item is referred to the modeling of unpredictable failures in a Poisson process, i.e. it is shown by a constant. Cumulative damage emphasizes the failures owing to strength deterioration and therefore the possibility of system sustaining the normal operation load decreases with time. It depends on the failure probability, 1-R. This representation denotes the memory characteristics of the second failure cause. Man-machine interference may lead to a positive effect in the failure rate due to learning and correction, or negative from the consequence of human inappropriate habit in system operations, etc. It is suggested that this item is correlated to the reliability, R, as well as the failure probability. Adaptation concerns with continuous adjusting between the mating subsystems. When a new system is set on duty, some hidden defects are explored and disappeared eventually. Therefore, the reliability decays combined with decreasing failure rate, which is expressed as a power of reliability. Each of these phenomena brings about the failures independently and is described by an additive term in the hazard rate function h(R), thus the overall failure behavior governed by a number of parameters is found by fitting the evidence data. The proposed model is meaningful in capturing the physical phenomena occurring during the system lifetime and provides for simpler and more effective parameter fitting than the usually adopted 'bathtub' procedures. Five examples of different type of failure mechanisms are taken in the validation of the proposed model. Satisfactory results are found from the comparisons

Meeting Human Reliability Requirements through Human Factors Design, Testing, and Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. L. Boring

2007-06-01

In the design of novel systems, it is important for the human factors engineer to work in parallel with the human reliability analyst to arrive at the safest achievable design that meets design team safety goals and certification or regulatory requirements. This paper introduces the System Development Safety Triptych, a checklist of considerations for the interplay of human factors and human reliability through design, testing, and modeling in product development. This paper also explores three phases of safe system development, corresponding to the conception, design, and implementation of a system.

Design for reliability of solid state lighting systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perpiñà, X.; Werkhoven, R.J.; Jakovenko, J.; Formánek, J.; Vellvehi, M.; Jordà, X.; Kunen, J.M.G.; Bancken, P.; Bolt, P.J.

2012-01-01

This work presents a methodology to design an SSL system for reliability. An LED lamp is thermally characterised and its model thermally simulated, indicating that the LED board (FR4 board with thermal vias, copper tracks and LED package) is the thermally most stressed part. Therefore, a

power system reliability in supplying nuclear reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gad, M.M.M.

2007-01-01

this thesis presents a simple technique for deducing minimal cut set (MCS) from the defined minimal path set (MPS) of generic distribution system and this technique have been used to evaluate the basic reliability indices of Egypt's second research reactor (ETRR-2) electrical distribution network. the alternative system configurations are then studied to evaluate their impact on service reliability. the proposed MCS approach considers both sustained and temporary outage. the temporary outage constitutes an important parameter in characterizing the system reliability indices for critical load point in distribution system. it is also consider the power quality impact on the reliability indices

Improving Metrological Reliability of Information-Measuring Systems Using Mathematical Modeling of Their Metrological Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnosov, R. Yu; Chernyshova, T. I.; Chernyshov, V. N.

2018-05-01

The algorithms for improving the metrological reliability of analogue blocks of measuring channels and information-measuring systems are developed. The proposed algorithms ensure the optimum values of their metrological reliability indices for a given analogue circuit block solution.

Reliability analysis of shutdown system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

2005-01-01

This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

Accelerated Monte Carlo system reliability analysis through machine-learning-based surrogate models of network connectivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, R.E.; Song, J.; Work, D.B.

2017-01-01

The two-terminal reliability problem in system reliability analysis is known to be computationally intractable for large infrastructure graphs. Monte Carlo techniques can estimate the probability of a disconnection between two points in a network by selecting a representative sample of network component failure realizations and determining the source-terminal connectivity of each realization. To reduce the runtime required for the Monte Carlo approximation, this article proposes an approximate framework in which the connectivity check of each sample is estimated using a machine-learning-based classifier. The framework is implemented using both a support vector machine (SVM) and a logistic regression based surrogate model. Numerical experiments are performed on the California gas distribution network using the epicenter and magnitude of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake as well as randomly-generated earthquakes. It is shown that the SVM and logistic regression surrogate models are able to predict network connectivity with accuracies of 99% for both methods, and are 1–2 orders of magnitude faster than using a Monte Carlo method with an exact connectivity check. - Highlights: • Surrogate models of network connectivity are developed by machine-learning algorithms. • Developed surrogate models can reduce the runtime required for Monte Carlo simulations. • Support vector machine and logistic regressions are employed to develop surrogate models. • Numerical example of California gas distribution network demonstrate the proposed approach. • The developed models have accuracies 99%, and are 1–2 orders of magnitude faster than MCS.

Reliability of dynamic systems under limited information.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Richard V., Jr. (.,; .); Grigoriu, Mircea

2006-09-01

A method is developed for reliability analysis of dynamic systems under limited information. The available information includes one or more samples of the system output; any known information on features of the output can be used if available. The method is based on the theory of non-Gaussian translation processes and is shown to be particularly suitable for problems of practical interest. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to a series of simple example problems and compare with results given by traditional statistical estimators in order to establish the accuracy of the method. It is demonstrated that the method delivers accurate results for the case of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems, and can be applied to analyze experimental data and/or mathematical model outputs. Two complex applications of direct interest to Sandia are also considered. First, we apply the proposed method to assess design reliability of a MEMS inertial switch. Second, we consider re-entry body (RB) component vibration response during normal re-entry, where the objective is to estimate the time-dependent probability of component failure. This last application is directly relevant to re-entry random vibration analysis at Sandia, and may provide insights on test-based and/or model-based qualification of weapon components for random vibration environments.

Photovoltaic power system reliability considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, V. R.

1980-01-01

This paper describes an example of how modern engineering and safety techniques can be used to assure the reliable and safe operation of photovoltaic power systems. This particular application was for a solar cell power system demonstration project in Tangaye, Upper Volta, Africa. The techniques involve a definition of the power system natural and operating environment, use of design criteria and analysis techniques, an awareness of potential problems via the inherent reliability and FMEA methods, and use of a fail-safe and planned spare parts engineering philosophy.

Recent Advances in System Reliability Signatures, Multi-state Systems and Statistical Inference

CERN Document Server

Frenkel, Ilia

2012-01-01

Recent Advances in System Reliability discusses developments in modern reliability theory such as signatures, multi-state systems and statistical inference. It describes the latest achievements in these fields, and covers the application of these achievements to reliability engineering practice. The chapters cover a wide range of new theoretical subjects and have been written by leading experts in reliability theory and its applications.  The topics include: concepts and different definitions of signatures (D-spectra),  their  properties and applications  to  reliability of coherent systems and network-type structures; Lz-transform of Markov stochastic process and its application to multi-state system reliability analysis; methods for cost-reliability and cost-availability analysis of multi-state systems; optimal replacement and protection strategy; and statistical inference. Recent Advances in System Reliability presents many examples to illustrate the theoretical results. Real world multi-state systems...

A reliability assessment methodology for the VHTR passive safety system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyungsuk; Jae, Moosung

2014-01-01

The passive safety system of a VHTR (Very High Temperature Reactor), which has recently attracted worldwide attention, is currently being considered for the design of safety improvements for the next generation of nuclear power plants in Korea. The functionality of the passive system does not rely on an external source of an electrical support system, but on the intelligent use of natural phenomena. Its function involves an ultimate heat sink for a passive secondary auxiliary cooling system, especially during a station blackout such as the case of the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accidents. However, it is not easy to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of passive safety for the purpose of risk analysis, considering the existing active system failure since the classical reliability assessment method cannot be applied. Therefore, we present a new methodology to quantify the reliability based on reliability physics models. This evaluation framework is then applied to of the conceptually designed VHTR in Korea. The Response Surface Method (RSM) is also utilized for evaluating the uncertainty of the maximum temperature of nuclear fuel. The proposed method could contribute to evaluating accident sequence frequency and designing new innovative nuclear systems, such as the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) in VHTR to be designed and constructed in Korea.

Solid State Lighting Reliability Components to Systems

CERN Document Server

Fan, XJ

2013-01-01

Solid State Lighting Reliability: Components to Systems begins with an explanation of the major benefits of solid state lighting (SSL) when compared to conventional lighting systems including but not limited to long useful lifetimes of 50,000 (or more) hours and high efficacy. When designing effective devices that take advantage of SSL capabilities the reliability of internal components (optics, drive electronics, controls, thermal design) take on critical importance. As such a detailed discussion of reliability from performance at the device level to sub components is included as well as the integrated systems of SSL modules, lamps and luminaires including various failure modes, reliability testing and reliability performance. This book also: Covers the essential reliability theories and practices for current and future development of Solid State Lighting components and systems Provides a systematic overview for not only the state-of-the-art, but also future roadmap and perspectives of Solid State Lighting r...

Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Ryan

Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers

Analysis of Parking Reliability Guidance of Urban Parking Variable Message Sign System

OpenAIRE

Zhenyu Mei; Ye Tian; Dongping Li

2012-01-01

Operators of parking guidance and information systems (PGIS) often encounter difficulty in determining when and how to provide reliable car park availability information to drivers. Reliability has become a key factor to ensure the benefits of urban PGIS. The present paper is the first to define the guiding parking reliability of urban parking variable message signs (VMSs). By analyzing the parking choice under guiding and optional parking lots, a guiding parking reliability model was constru...

Modeling the Control Systems of Gas-Turbines to Ensure Their Reliable Parallel Operation in the UPS of Russia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinogradov, A. Yu., E-mail: vinogradov-a@ntcees.ru; Gerasimov, A. S.; Kozlov, A. V.; Smirnov, A. N. [JSC “STC UPS” (Russian Federation)

2016-05-15

Consideration is given to different approaches to modeling the control systems of gas turbines as a component of CCPP and GTPP to ensure their reliable parallel operation in the UPS of Russia. The disadvantages of the approaches to the modeling of combined-cycle units in studying long-term electromechanical transients accompanied by power imbalance are pointed out. Examples are presented to support the use of more detailed models of gas turbines in electromechanical transient calculations. It is shown that the modern speed control systems of gas turbines in combination with relatively low equivalent inertia have a considerable effect on electromechanical transients, including those caused by disturbances not related to power imbalance.

Small nuclear power reactor emergency electric power supply system reliability comparative analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonfietti, Gerson

2003-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the reliability of the emergency power supply system, of a small size nuclear power reactor. Three different configurations are investigated and their reliability analyzed. The fault tree method is used as the main tool of analysis. The work includes a bibliographic review of emergency diesel generator reliability and a discussion of the design requirements applicable to emergency electrical systems. The influence of common cause failure influences is considered using the beta factor model. The operator action is considered using human failure probabilities. A parametric analysis shows the strong dependence between the reactor safety and the loss of offsite electric power supply. It is also shown that common cause failures can be a major contributor to the system reliability. (author)

Reliability design of mechanical systems a guide for mechanical and civil engineers

CERN Document Server

Woo, Seongwoo

2017-01-01

This book describes basic reliability concepts – parametric ALT plan, failure mechanism and design, and reliability testing with acceleration factor and sample size equation. A generalized life-stress failure model with a new effort concept has been derived and recommended to calculate the acceleration factor of the mechanical system. The new sample size equation with the acceleration factor has also been derived to carry out the parametric ALT. This new parametric ALT should help a mechanical/civil engineer to uncover the design parameters affecting reliability during the design process of the mechanical system. Consequently, it should help companies to improve product reliability and avoid recalls due to the product/structure failures in the field. As the improper or missing design parameters in the design phase are experimentally identified by this new reliability design method - parametric ALT, the mechanical/civil engineering system might improve in reliability by the increase in lifetime and the reduc...

Fundamentals and applications of systems reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boesebeck, K.; Heuser, F.W.; Kotthoff, K.

1976-01-01

The lecture gives a survey on the application of methods of reliability analysis to assess the safety of nuclear power plants. Possible statements of reliability analysis in connection with specifications of the atomic licensing procedure are especially dealt with. Existing specifications of safety criteria are additionally discussed with the help of reliability analysis by the example of the reliability analysis of a reactor protection system. Beyond the limited application to single safety systems, the significance of reliability analysis for a closed risk concept is explained in the last part of the lecture. (orig./LH) [de

Apples to Apples: Equivalent-Reliability Power Systems Across Diverse Resource Mix Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephen, Gordon W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigler, Devon [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jones, Wesley B [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-03-28

Electricity market research is highly price sensitive, and prices are strongly influenced by balance of supply and demand. This work looks at how to combine capacity expansion models and reliability assessment tools to assess equivalent-reliability power systems across diverse resource mix scenarios.

Reliability evaluation of a natural circulation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jafari, Jalil; D'Auria, Francesco; Kazeminejad, Hossein; Davilu, Hadi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses a reliability study performed with reference to a passive thermohydraulic natural circulation (NC) system, named TTL-1. A methodology based on probabilistic techniques has been applied with the main purpose to optimize the system design. The obtained results have been adopted to estimate the thermal-hydraulic reliability (TH-R) of the same system. A total of 29 relevant parameters (including nominal values and plausible ranges of variations) affecting the design and the NC performance of the TTL-1 loop are identified and a probability of occurrence is assigned for each value based on expert judgment. Following procedures established for the uncertainty evaluation of thermal-hydraulic system codes results, 137 system configurations have been selected and each configuration has been analyzed via the Relap5 best-estimate code. The reference system configuration and the failure criteria derived from the 'mission' of the passive system are adopted for the evaluation of the system TH-R. Four different definitions of a less-than-unity 'reliability-values' (where unity represents the maximum achievable reliability) are proposed for the performance of the selected passive system. This is normally considered fully reliable, i.e. reliability-value equal one, in typical Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) applications in nuclear reactor safety. The two 'point' TH-R values for the considered NC system were found equal to 0.70 and 0.85, i.e. values comparable with the reliability of a pump installed in an 'equivalent' forced circulation (active) system having the same 'mission'. The design optimization study was completed by a regression analysis addressing the output of the 137 calculations: heat losses, undetected leakage, loop length, riser diameter, and equivalent diameter of the test section have been found as the most important parameters bringing to the optimal system design and affecting the TH-R. As added values for this work, the comparison has

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Lipeng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wang, Feiyi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oral, H. Sarp [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Vazhkudai, Sudharshan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cao, Qing [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2014-11-01

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storage systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results

75 FR 35689 - System Personnel Training Reliability Standards

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-23

... planning staff at control areas and reliability coordinators concerning power system characteristics and... Coordination--Staffing). \\11\\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, Federal... American bulk electric system are competent to perform those reliability-related tasks.\\22\\ The proposed...

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System Considering Sequential Characteristics of Distributed Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng Wanxing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In allusion to the randomness of output power of distributed generation (DG, a reliability evaluation model based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS for distribution system with DG is proposed. Operating states of the distribution system can be sampled by SMCS in chronological order thus the corresponding output power of DG can be generated. The proposed method has been tested on feeder F4 of IEEE-RBTS Bus 6. The results show that reliability evaluation of distribution system considering the uncertainty of output power of DG can be effectively implemented by SMCS.

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Gharouni-Nik, Morteza; Naeimi, Meysam; Ahadi, Sodayf; Alimoradi, Zahra

2014-06-01

In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

75 FR 71625 - System Restoration Reliability Standards

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-24

... to start operating and delivering electric power without assistance from the electric system... and system restoration and reporting following disturbances. \\3\\ North American Electric Reliability... Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System and determined that the proposed requirements are necessary to...

Reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheridan, T.F.; Henderson, J.T.; MacDiarmid, P.R.

1979-01-01

Security surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television are being deployed with increasing frequency for the protection of property and other valuable assets. A need exists to demonstrate the reliability of such systems before their installation to assure that the deployed systems will operate when needed with only the scheduled amount of maintenance and support costs. An approach to the reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television is described. Failure definitions based on industry television standards and imaging alarm assessment criteria for surveillance systems are discussed. Test methods which allow 24 hour a day operation without the need for numerous test scenarios, test personnel and elaborate test facilities are presented. Existing reliability demonstration standards are shown to apply which obviate the need for elaborate statistical tests. The demonstration methods employed are shown to have applications in other types of imaging surveillance systems besides closed circuit television

Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

2007-01-01

Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: (1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and (2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid

Reliability Equivalence to Symmetrical UHVDC Transmission Systems Considering Redundant Structure Configuration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing Jiang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC transmission system has been developed rapidly for its significant long-distance, high-capacity and low-loss properties. Equipment failures and overall outages of the UHVDC system have increasingly vital influence on the power supply of the receiving end grid. To improve the reliability level of UHVDC systems, a quantitative selection and configuration approach of redundant structures is proposed in this paper, which is based on multi-state reliability equivalence. Specifically, considering the symmetry characteristic of an UHVDC system, a state space model is established as a monopole rather than a bipole, which effectively reduces the state space dimensions to be considered by deducing the reliability merging operator of two poles. Considering the standby effect of AC filters and the recovery effect of converter units, the number of available converter units and corresponding probability are expressed with in universal generating function (UGF form. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the impact of component reliability parameters on system reliability and determine the most specific devices that should be configured in the redundant structure. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis is utilized to help determine the optimal scheme of redundant devices. Case studies are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. Based on the numerical results, configuring a set of redundant transformers is indicated to be of the greatest significance to improve the reliability level of UHVDC transmission systems.

Exact combinatorial reliability analysis of dynamic systems with sequence-dependent failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xing Liudong; Shrestha, Akhilesh; Dai Yuanshun

2011-01-01

Many real-life fault-tolerant systems are subjected to sequence-dependent failure behavior, in which the order in which the fault events occur is important to the system reliability. Such systems can be modeled by dynamic fault trees (DFT) with priority-AND (pAND) gates. Existing approaches for the reliability analysis of systems subjected to sequence-dependent failures are typically state-space-based, simulation-based or inclusion-exclusion-based methods. Those methods either suffer from the state-space explosion problem or require long computation time especially when results with high degree of accuracy are desired. In this paper, an analytical method based on sequential binary decision diagrams is proposed. The proposed approach can analyze the exact reliability of non-repairable dynamic systems subjected to the sequence-dependent failure behavior. Also, the proposed approach is combinatorial and is applicable for analyzing systems with any arbitrary component time-to-failure distributions. The application and advantages of the proposed approach are illustrated through analysis of several examples. - Highlights: → We analyze the sequence-dependent failure behavior using combinatorial models. → The method has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions. → The method is analytical and based on sequential binary decision diagrams (SBDD). → The method is computationally more efficient than existing methods.