WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling spatial variation

  1. Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

    2010-01-01

    The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

  2. Investigation of Spatial Variation of Sea States Offshore of Humboldt Bay CA Using a Hindcast Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-10-01

    Spatial variability of sea states is an important consideration when performing wave resource assessments and wave resource characterization studies for wave energy converter (WEC) test sites and commercial WEC deployments. This report examines the spatial variation of sea states offshore of Humboldt Bay, CA, using the wave model SWAN . The effect of depth and shoaling on bulk wave parameters is well resolved using the model SWAN with a 200 m grid. At this site, the degree of spatial variation of these bulk wave parameters, with shoaling generally perpendicular to the depth contours, is found to depend on the season. The variation in wave height , for example, was higher in the summer due to the wind and wave sheltering from the protruding land on the coastline north of the model domain. Ho wever, the spatial variation within an area of a potential Tier 1 WEC test site at 45 m depth and 1 square nautical mile is almost negligible; at most about 0.1 m in both winter and summer. The six wave characterization parameters recommended by the IEC 6 2600 - 101 TS were compared at several points along a line perpendicular to shore from the WEC test site . As expected, these parameters varied based on depth , but showed very similar seasonal trends.

  3. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  4. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Roy

    Full Text Available The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012. I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  5. Spatial variations and development of land use regression models of oxidative potential in ten European study areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedynska, Aleksandra; Hoek, Gerard; Wang, Meng; Yang, Aileen; Eeftens, Marloes; Cyrys, Josef; Keuken, Menno; Ampe, Christophe; Beelen, Rob; Cesaroni, Giulia; Forastiere, Francesco; Cirach, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; De Nazelle, Audrey; Nystad, Wenche; Akhlaghi, Helgah Makarem; Declercq, Christophe; Stempfelet, Morgane; Eriksen, Kirsten T.; Dimakopoulou, Konstantina; Lanki, Timo; Meliefste, Kees; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Yli-Tuomi, Tarja; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Janssen, Nicole A. H.; Brunekreef, Bert; Kooter, Ingeborg M.

    2017-02-01

    Oxidative potential (OP) has been suggested as a health-relevant measure of air pollution. Little information is available about OP spatial variation and the possibility to model its spatial variability. Our aim was to measure the spatial variation of OP within and between 10 European study areas. The second aim was to develop land use regression (LUR) models to explain the measured spatial variation. OP was determined with the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay in ten European study areas. DTT of PM2.5 was measured at 16-40 sites per study area, divided over street, urban and regional background sites. Three two-week samples were taken per site in a one-year period in three different seasons. We developed study-area specific LUR models and a LUR model for all study areas combined to explain the spatial variation of OP. Significant contrasts between study areas in OP were found. OP DTT levels were highest in southern Europe. DTT levels at street sites were on average 1.10 times higher than at urban background locations. In 5 of the 10 study areas LUR models could be developed with a median R2 of 33%. A combined study area model explained 30% of the measured spatial variability. Overall, LUR models did not explain spatial variation well, possibly due to low levels of OP DTT and a lack of specific predictor variables.

  6. Bayesian spatial semi-parametric modeling of HIV variation in Kenya.

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    Oscar Ngesa

    Full Text Available Spatial statistics has seen rapid application in many fields, especially epidemiology and public health. Many studies, nonetheless, make limited use of the geographical location information and also usually assume that the covariates, which are related to the response variable, have linear effects. We develop a Bayesian semi-parametric regression model for HIV prevalence data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC. The model is applied to HIV prevalence data among men in Kenya, derived from the Kenya AIDS indicator survey, with n = 3,662. Past studies have concluded that HIV infection has a nonlinear association with age. In this study a smooth function based on penalized regression splines is used to estimate this nonlinear effect. Other covariates were assumed to have a linear effect. Spatial references to the counties were modeled as both structured and unstructured spatial effects. We observe that circumcision reduces the risk of HIV infection. The results also indicate that men in the urban areas were more likely to be infected by HIV as compared to their rural counterpart. Men with higher education had the lowest risk of HIV infection. A nonlinear relationship between HIV infection and age was established. Risk of HIV infection increases with age up to the age of 40 then declines with increase in age. Men who had STI in the last 12 months were more likely to be infected with HIV. Also men who had ever used a condom were found to have higher likelihood to be infected by HIV. A significant spatial variation of HIV infection in Kenya was also established. The study shows the practicality and flexibility of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model in analyzing epidemiological data.

  7. Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

    2013-01-01

    Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

  8. Spatial Variation of Soil Type and Soil Moisture in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R.

    2001-06-27

    Soil characteristics (texture and moisture) are typically assumed to be initially constant when performing simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Soil texture is spatially homogeneous and time-independent, while soil moisture is often spatially homogeneous initially, but time-dependent. This report discusses the conversion of a global data set of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) soil types to RAMS soil texture and the subsequent modifications required in RAMS to ingest this information. Spatial variations in initial soil moisture obtained from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) large-scale models are also introduced. Comparisons involving simulations over the southeastern United States for two different time periods, one during warmer, more humid summer conditions, and one during cooler, dryer winter conditions, reveals differences in surface conditions related to increases or decreases in near-surface atmospheric moisture con tent as a result of different soil properties. Three separate simulation types were considered. The base case assumed spatially homogeneous soil texture and initial soil moisture. The second case assumed variable soil texture and constant initial soil moisture, while the third case allowed for both variable soil texture and initial soil moisture. The simulation domain was further divided into four geographically distinct regions. It is concluded there is a more dramatic impact on thermodynamic variables (surface temperature and dewpoint) than on surface winds, and a more pronounced variability in results during the summer period. While no obvious trends in surface winds or dewpoint temperature were found relative to observations covering all regions and times, improvement in surface temperatures in most regions and time periods was generally seen with the incorporation of variable soil texture and initial soil moisture.

  9. Modelling spatial and temporal variations of annual suspended sediment yields from small agricultural catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rymszewicz, A; Bruen, M; O'Sullivan, J J; Turner, J N; Lawler, D M; Harrington, J R; Conroy, E; Kelly-Quinn, M

    2018-04-01

    Estimates of sediment yield are important for ecological and geomorphological assessment of fluvial systems and for assessment of soil erosion within a catchment. Many regulatory frameworks, such as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, derived from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) require reporting of annual sediment fluxes. While they may be measured in large rivers, sediment flux is rarely measured in smaller rivers. Measurements of sediment transport at a national scale can be also challenging and therefore, sediment yield models are often utilised by water resource managers for the predictions of sediment yields in the ungauged catchments. Regression based models, calibrated to field measurements, can offer an advantage over complex and computational models due to their simplicity, easy access to input data and due to the additional insights into factors controlling sediment export in the study sites. While traditionally calibrated to long-term average values of sediment yields such predictions cannot represent temporal variations. This study addresses this issue in a novel way by taking account of the variation from year to year in hydrological variables in the developed models (using annual mean runoff, annual mean flow, flows exceeded in five percentage of the time (Q5) and seasonal rainfall estimated separately for each year of observations). Other parameters included in the models represent spatial differences influenced by factors such as soil properties (% poorly drained soils and % peaty soils), land-use (% pasture or % arable lands), channel slope (S1085) and drainage network properties (drainage density). Catchment descriptors together with year-specific hydrological variables can explain both spatial differences and inter-annual variability of suspended sediment yields. The methodology is demonstrated by deriving equations from Irish data-sets (compiled in this study) with the best model

  10. Model development for spatial variation of PM2.5 emissions from residential wood burning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yong Q, Tian; Peng Gong; Qian Yu; Radke, John D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary research result of spatially quantifying and allocating the potential activity of residential wood burning (RWB) by using demographic, hypsographic, climatic and topographic information as independent variables. We also introduce the method for calculating PM 2.5 emission from residential wood combustion with the potential activity as primary variable. A linear regression model was generated to describe spatial and temporal distribution of the potential activity of wood burning as primary heating source. In order to improve the estimation, the classifications of urban, suburban and rural were redefined to meet the specifications of this application. Also, a unique way of defining forest accessibility is found useful in estimating the activity potential of RWB. The results suggest that the potential activity of wood burning is mostly determined by elevation of a location, forest accessibility, urban/non-urban position, climatic conditions and several demographic variables. The analysis results were validated using survey data collected through face-to-face and telephone interviews over the study area in central California. The linear regression model can explain approximately 86% of the variation of surveyed wood burning activity potential. The total PM 2.5 emitted from woodstoves and fireplaces is analyzed for the study region at county level. (Author)

  11. Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

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    Thibault Nordey

    Full Text Available Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

  12. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  13. Does spatial variation in environmental conditions affect recruitment? A study using a 3-D model of Peruvian anchovy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco P.; Ayón, Patricia

    2015-11-01

    We used a 3-dimensional individual-based model (3-D IBM) of Peruvian anchovy to examine how spatial variation in environmental conditions affects larval and juvenile growth and survival, and recruitment. Temperature, velocity, and phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations generated from a coupled hydrodynamic Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model, mapped to a three dimensional rectangular grid, were used to simulate anchovy populations. The IBM simulated individuals as they progressed from eggs to recruitment at 10 cm. Eggs and yolk-sac larvae were followed hourly through the processes of development, mortality, and movement (advection), and larvae and juveniles were followed daily through the processes of growth, mortality, and movement (advection plus behavior). A bioenergetics model was used to grow larvae and juveniles. The NPZD model provided prey fields which influence both food consumption rate as well as behavior mediated movement with individuals going to grids cells having optimal growth conditions. We compared predicted recruitment for monthly cohorts for 1990 through 2004 between the full 3-D IBM and a point (0-D) model that used spatially-averaged environmental conditions. The 3-D and 0-D versions generated similar interannual patterns in monthly recruitment for 1991-2004, with the 3-D results yielding consistently higher survivorship. Both versions successfully captured the very poor recruitment during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. Higher recruitment in the 3-D simulations was due to higher survival during the larval stage resulting from individuals searching for more favorable temperatures that lead to faster growth rates. The strong effect of temperature was because both model versions provided saturating food conditions for larval and juvenile anchovies. We conclude with a discussion of how explicit treatment of spatial variation affected simulated recruitment, other examples of fisheries modeling analyses that have used a

  14. A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000

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    Congdon Peter

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Life expectancy in China has been improving markedly but health gains have been uneven and there is inequality in survival chances between regions and in rural as against urban areas. This paper applies a statistical modelling approach to mortality data collected in conjunction with the 2000 Census to formally assess spatial mortality contrasts in China. The modelling approach provides interpretable summary parameters (e.g. the relative mortality risk in rural as against urban areas and is more parsimonious in terms of parameters than the conventional life table model. Results Predictive fit is assessed both globally and at the level of individual five year age groups. A proportional model (age and area effects independent has a worse fit than one allowing age-area interactions following a bilinear form. The best fit is obtained by allowing for child and oldest age mortality rates to vary spatially. Conclusion There is evidence that age (21 age groups and area (31 Chinese administrative divisions are not proportional (i.e. independent mortality risk factors. In fact, spatial contrasts are greatest at young ages. There is a pronounced rural survival disadvantage, and large differences in life expectancy between provinces.

  15. Modeling spatial variation in risk of presence and insecticide resistance for malaria vectors in Laos.

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    Marc Souris

    Full Text Available Climatic, sociological and environmental conditions are known to affect the spatial distribution of malaria vectors and disease transmission. Intensive use of insecticides in the agricultural and public health sectors exerts a strong selective pressure on resistance genes in malaria vectors. Spatio-temporal models of favorable conditions for Anopheles species' presence were developed to estimate the probability of presence of malaria vectors and insecticide resistance in Lao PDR. These models were based on environmental and meteorological conditions, and demographic factors. GIS software was used to build and manage a spatial database with data collected from various geographic information providers. GIS was also used to build and run the models. Results showed that potential insecticide use and therefore the probability of resistance to insecticide is greater in the southwestern part of the country, specifically in Champasack province and where malaria incidence is already known to be high. These findings can help national authorities to implement targeted and effective vector control strategies for malaria prevention and elimination among populations most at risk. Results can also be used to focus the insecticide resistance surveillance in Anopheles mosquito populations in more restricted area, reducing the area of surveys, and making the implementation of surveillance system for Anopheles mosquito insecticide resistance possible.

  16. Modeling spatial variation in risk of presence and insecticide resistance for malaria vectors in Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souris, Marc; Marcombe, Sébastien; Laforet, Julie; Brey, Paul T; Corbel, Vincent; Overgaard, Hans J

    2017-01-01

    Climatic, sociological and environmental conditions are known to affect the spatial distribution of malaria vectors and disease transmission. Intensive use of insecticides in the agricultural and public health sectors exerts a strong selective pressure on resistance genes in malaria vectors. Spatio-temporal models of favorable conditions for Anopheles species' presence were developed to estimate the probability of presence of malaria vectors and insecticide resistance in Lao PDR. These models were based on environmental and meteorological conditions, and demographic factors. GIS software was used to build and manage a spatial database with data collected from various geographic information providers. GIS was also used to build and run the models. Results showed that potential insecticide use and therefore the probability of resistance to insecticide is greater in the southwestern part of the country, specifically in Champasack province and where malaria incidence is already known to be high. These findings can help national authorities to implement targeted and effective vector control strategies for malaria prevention and elimination among populations most at risk. Results can also be used to focus the insecticide resistance surveillance in Anopheles mosquito populations in more restricted area, reducing the area of surveys, and making the implementation of surveillance system for Anopheles mosquito insecticide resistance possible.

  17. Spatial-temporal variations in regional ambient sulfur dioxide concentration and source-contribution analysis: A dispersion modeling approach

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    Zou, Bin; Wilson, J. Gaines; Zhan, F. Benjamin; Zeng, Yongnian; Wu, Kongjiang

    2011-09-01

    An understanding of the complexity of spatial-temporal variations in regional air quality and its respective source contributors is one of the priority research areas due to the adverse effects of air pollution on human health and the environment. In this paper, we integrate air dispersion modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) based spatial analysis methods to characterize regional ambient air quality at a relatively fine geographical scale (1 km × 1 km) while ascertaining source contributors. The temporal variation analysis shows that sulfur dioxide (SO 2) pollution in Dallas County, Texas did not consistently increase or decrease from 1996 to 2002. The lowest and highest mean levels of annual SO 2 concentrations at all the receptors ( n = 2000) were 0.39 μg m -3 and 2.32 μg m -3 in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Meanwhile, analysis results suggest that the annual SO 2 concentrations in a small part of Dallas County slightly declined with the highest value of -1.00 μg m -3 over the 1996-2002 period, while most of the county experienced increased SO 2 concentration levels from 0.00 to 0.25 μg m -3. In addition, the source apportionment analysis demonstrated that the variations in total annual SO 2 concentrations in Dallas County from 1996 to 2002 were significantly different from those by source classification. That is, compared to industrial emission sources, on-road vehicle emission sources caused variations in annual SO 2 concentrations with relatively larger extents (power of determinant = 0.42). However, extreme variations in concentrations were due to industrial emission sources (3.45% vs. 0.00%). Based on these observations, it can be concluded that the combination of air dispersion modeling and GIS-based spatial analysis shows promise to overcome the drawbacks of sparse intraurban air quality monitoring in characterizing the spatial-temporal micro-variations in regional ambient air quality and ascertaining roles of source contributors over

  18. Assessment of spatial variation in drinking water iodine and its implications for dietary intake: A new conceptual model for Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voutchkova, Denitza Dimitrova; Ernstsen, Vibeke; Hansen, Birgitte; Sørensen, Brian Lyngby; Zhang, Chaosheng; Kristiansen, Søren Munch

    2014-01-01

    Iodine is essential for human health. Many countries have therefore introduced universal salt iodising (USI) programmes to ensure adequate intake for the populations. However, little attention has been paid to subnational differences in iodine intake from drinking water caused by naturally occurring spatial variations. To address this issue, we here present the results of a Danish nationwide study of spatial trends of iodine in drinking water and the relevance of these trends for human dietary iodine intake. The data consist of treated drinking water samples from 144 waterworks, representing approx. 45% of the groundwater abstraction for drinking water supply in Denmark. The samples were analysed for iodide, iodate, total iodine (TI) and other major and trace elements. The spatial patterns were investigated with Local Moran's I. TI ranges from < 0.2 to 126 μg L −1 (mean 14.4 μg L −1 , median 11.9 μg L −1 ). Six speciation combinations were found. Half of the samples (n = 71) contain organic iodine; all species were detected in approx. 27% of all samples. The complex spatial variation is attributed both to the geology and the groundwater treatment. TI > 40 μg L −1 originates from postglacial marine and glacial meltwater sand and from Campanian–Maastrichtian chalk aquifers. The estimated drinking water contribution to human intake varies from 0% to > 100% of the WHO recommended daily iodine intake for adults and from 0% to approx. 50% for adolescents. The paper presents a new conceptual model based on the observed clustering of high or low drinking-water iodine concentrations, delimiting zones with potentially deficient, excessive or optimal iodine status. Our findings suggest that the present coarse-scale nationwide programme for monitoring the population's iodine status may not offer a sufficiently accurate picture. Local variations in drinking-water iodine should be mapped and incorporated into future adjustment of the monitoring and/or the

  19. Assessment of spatial variation in drinking water iodine and its implications for dietary intake: A new conceptual model for Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voutchkova, Denitza Dimitrova, E-mail: ddv@geo.au.dk [Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Lyseng Allé 1, DK-8270 Højbjerg (Denmark); Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K (Denmark); Ernstsen, Vibeke [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K (Denmark); Hansen, Birgitte; Sørensen, Brian Lyngby [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Lyseng Allé 1, DK-8270 Højbjerg (Denmark); Zhang, Chaosheng [GIS Centre and School of Geography and Archaeology, National University of Ireland, Galway (Ireland); Kristiansen, Søren Munch [Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)

    2014-09-15

    Iodine is essential for human health. Many countries have therefore introduced universal salt iodising (USI) programmes to ensure adequate intake for the populations. However, little attention has been paid to subnational differences in iodine intake from drinking water caused by naturally occurring spatial variations. To address this issue, we here present the results of a Danish nationwide study of spatial trends of iodine in drinking water and the relevance of these trends for human dietary iodine intake. The data consist of treated drinking water samples from 144 waterworks, representing approx. 45% of the groundwater abstraction for drinking water supply in Denmark. The samples were analysed for iodide, iodate, total iodine (TI) and other major and trace elements. The spatial patterns were investigated with Local Moran's I. TI ranges from < 0.2 to 126 μg L{sup −1} (mean 14.4 μg L{sup −1}, median 11.9 μg L{sup −1}). Six speciation combinations were found. Half of the samples (n = 71) contain organic iodine; all species were detected in approx. 27% of all samples. The complex spatial variation is attributed both to the geology and the groundwater treatment. TI > 40 μg L{sup −1} originates from postglacial marine and glacial meltwater sand and from Campanian–Maastrichtian chalk aquifers. The estimated drinking water contribution to human intake varies from 0% to > 100% of the WHO recommended daily iodine intake for adults and from 0% to approx. 50% for adolescents. The paper presents a new conceptual model based on the observed clustering of high or low drinking-water iodine concentrations, delimiting zones with potentially deficient, excessive or optimal iodine status. Our findings suggest that the present coarse-scale nationwide programme for monitoring the population's iodine status may not offer a sufficiently accurate picture. Local variations in drinking-water iodine should be mapped and incorporated into future adjustment of the

  20. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

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    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  1. Modelling spatial and temporal variations in the water quality of an artificial water reservoir in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cid, Fabricio D., E-mail: fabricio.cid@gmail.com [Laboratory of Biology ' Prof. E. Caviedes Codelia' , Facultad de Ciencias Humanas, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Laboratory of Integrative Biology, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research in Biology (IMIBIO-SL), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, San Luis (Argentina); Department of Biochemistry and Biological Sciences, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Anton, Rosa I. [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Pardo, Rafael; Vega, Marisol [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid (Spain); Caviedes-Vidal, Enrique [Laboratory of Biology ' Prof. E. Caviedes Codelia' , Facultad de Ciencias Humanas, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Laboratory of Integrative Biology, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research in Biology (IMIBIO-SL), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, San Luis (Argentina); Department of Biochemistry and Biological Sciences, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina)

    2011-10-31

    Highlights: {yields} Water quality of an Argentinean reservoir has been investigated by N-way PCA. {yields} PARAFAC mode modelled spatial and seasonal variations of water composition. {yields} Two factors related with organic and lead pollution have been identified. {yields} The most polluted areas of the reservoir were located, and polluting sources identified. - Abstract: Temporal and spatial patterns of water quality of an important artificial water reservoir located in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina were investigated using chemometric techniques. Surface water samples were collected at 38 points of the water reservoir during eleven sampling campaigns between October 1998 and June 2000, covering the warm wet season and the cold dry season, and analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), conductivity, pH, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, hardness, bicarbonate, chloride, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, fluoride, sodium, potassium, iron, aluminum, silica, phosphate, sulfide, arsenic, chromium, lead, cadmium, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), viable aerobic bacteria (VAB) and total coliform bacteria (TC). Concentrations of lead, ammonium, nitrite and coliforms were higher than the maximum allowable limits for drinking water in a large proportion of the water samples. To obtain a general representation of the spatial and temporal trends of the water quality parameters at the reservoir, the three-dimensional dataset (sampling sites x parameters x sampling campaigns) has been analyzed by matrix augmentation principal component analysis (MA-PCA) and N-way principal component analysis (N-PCA) using Tucker3 and PARAFAC (Parallel Factor Analysis) models. MA-PCA produced a component accounting for the general behavior of parameters associated with organic pollution. The Tucker3 models were not appropriate for modelling the water quality dataset. The two-factor PARAFAC model provided the best picture to understand the

  2. Modelling spatial and temporal variations in the water quality of an artificial water reservoir in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cid, Fabricio D.; Anton, Rosa I.; Pardo, Rafael; Vega, Marisol; Caviedes-Vidal, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Water quality of an Argentinean reservoir has been investigated by N-way PCA. → PARAFAC mode modelled spatial and seasonal variations of water composition. → Two factors related with organic and lead pollution have been identified. → The most polluted areas of the reservoir were located, and polluting sources identified. - Abstract: Temporal and spatial patterns of water quality of an important artificial water reservoir located in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina were investigated using chemometric techniques. Surface water samples were collected at 38 points of the water reservoir during eleven sampling campaigns between October 1998 and June 2000, covering the warm wet season and the cold dry season, and analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), conductivity, pH, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, hardness, bicarbonate, chloride, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, fluoride, sodium, potassium, iron, aluminum, silica, phosphate, sulfide, arsenic, chromium, lead, cadmium, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), viable aerobic bacteria (VAB) and total coliform bacteria (TC). Concentrations of lead, ammonium, nitrite and coliforms were higher than the maximum allowable limits for drinking water in a large proportion of the water samples. To obtain a general representation of the spatial and temporal trends of the water quality parameters at the reservoir, the three-dimensional dataset (sampling sites x parameters x sampling campaigns) has been analyzed by matrix augmentation principal component analysis (MA-PCA) and N-way principal component analysis (N-PCA) using Tucker3 and PARAFAC (Parallel Factor Analysis) models. MA-PCA produced a component accounting for the general behavior of parameters associated with organic pollution. The Tucker3 models were not appropriate for modelling the water quality dataset. The two-factor PARAFAC model provided the best picture to understand the spatial and

  3. SOLWEIG 1.0 Modelling spatial variations of 3D radiant fluxes and mean radiant temperature in complex urban settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg, Fredrik; Holmer, Björn; Thorsson, Sofia

    2008-09-01

    The mean radiant temperature, Tmrt, which sums up all shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (both direct and reflected) to which the human body is exposed is one of the key meteorological parameters governing human energy balance and the thermal comfort of man. In this paper, a new radiation model (SOLWEIG 1.0), which simulates spatial variations of 3D radiation fluxes and Tmrt in complex urban settings, is presented. The Tmrt is derived by modelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes in six directions (upward, downward and from the four cardinal points) and angular factors. The model requires a limited number of inputs, such as direct, diffuse and global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, urban geometry and geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation). The model was evaluated using 7 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites with different building geometries a large square and a small courtyard in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N) across different seasons and in various weather conditions. The evaluation reveals good agreement between modelled and measured values of Tmrt, with an overall good correspondence of R 2 = 0.94, ( p < 0.01, RMSE = 4.8 K). SOLWEIG 1.0 is still under development. Future work will incorporate a vegetation scheme, as well as an improvement of the estimation of fluxes from the four cardinal points.

  4. SOLWEIG 1.0--modelling spatial variations of 3D radiant fluxes and mean radiant temperature in complex urban settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg, Fredrik; Holmer, Björn; Thorsson, Sofia

    2008-09-01

    The mean radiant temperature, T(mrt), which sums up all shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (both direct and reflected) to which the human body is exposed is one of the key meteorological parameters governing human energy balance and the thermal comfort of man. In this paper, a new radiation model (SOLWEIG 1.0), which simulates spatial variations of 3D radiation fluxes and T(mrt) in complex urban settings, is presented. The T(mrt) is derived by modelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes in six directions (upward, downward and from the four cardinal points) and angular factors. The model requires a limited number of inputs, such as direct, diffuse and global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, urban geometry and geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation). The model was evaluated using 7 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites with different building geometries--a large square and a small courtyard in Göteborg, Sweden (57 degrees N)--across different seasons and in various weather conditions. The evaluation reveals good agreement between modelled and measured values of T(mrt), with an overall good correspondence of R (2) = 0.94, (p < 0.01, RMSE = 4.8 K). SOLWEIG 1.0 is still under development. Future work will incorporate a vegetation scheme, as well as an improvement of the estimation of fluxes from the four cardinal points.

  5. Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maaten, van der Ernest; Hamann, A.; Maaten-Theunissen, van der M.; Bergsma, A.R.; Hengeveld, G.M.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Terhürne, R.L.; Sterck, F.J.

    2017-01-01

    Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we

  6. Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Li, Yuefen; Harris, Paul; Cardenas, Laura M; Dunn, Robert M; Sint, Hadewij; Murray, Phil J; Lee, Michael R F; Wu, Lianhai

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we evaluated the ability of the SPACSYS model to simulate water run-off, soil moisture, N 2 O fluxes and grass growth using data generated from a field of the North Wyke Farm Platform. The field-scale model is adapted via a linked and grid-based approach (grid-to-grid) to account for not only temporal dynamics but also the within-field spatial variation in these key ecosystem indicators. Spatial variability in nutrient and water presence at the field-scale is a key source of uncertainty when quantifying nutrient cycling and water movement in an agricultural system. Results demonstrated that the new spatially distributed version of SPACSYS provided a worthy improvement in accuracy over the standard (single-point) version for biomass productivity. No difference in model prediction performance was observed for water run-off, reflecting the closed-system nature of this variable. Similarly, no difference in model prediction performance was found for N 2 O fluxes, but here the N 2 O predictions were noticeably poor in both cases. Further developmental work, informed by this study's findings, is proposed to improve model predictions for N 2 O. Soil moisture results with the spatially distributed version appeared promising but this promise could not be objectively verified.

  7. Monitoring and reactive-transport modeling of the spatial and temporal variations of the Strengbach spring hydrochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerer, J.; Chabaux, F.; Lucas, Y.; Clément, A.; Fritz, B.; Beaulieu, E.; Viville, D.; Pierret, M. C.; Gangloff, S.; Négrel, Ph.

    2018-03-01

    This study focuses on 20 years of hydrochemical monitoring of the small springs that emerge in the experimental granitic catchment of Strengbach (OHGE, France) and the simulation of these data using the KIRMAT code. The data indicate that the Strengbach springs display chemostatic behavior; that is, limited temporal variations were noted in the concentrations of dissolved silica (H4SiO4) and most of the basic cations during the studied period (1987-2010), resulting in relative stability of the global weathering fluxes exported by the springs. Only the Ca2+ concentrations reflect a significant decrease in all the Strengbach springs since 1987, and the variations differ from one spring to another. The modeling results show that the decrease in Ca2+ in the Strengbach springs is due to the response of the water-rock interactions within the bedrock to the variations in the chemical composition of the soil solutions, which were characterized by a significant increase in pH and a decrease in Ca2+ concentrations between 1987 and 2010. The decrease in Ca2+ concentrations seen in the Strengbach springs is controlled by changes in the apatite dissolution rate and the compositions of clay minerals induced by the soil solution changes. The differences observed between the Ca2+ trends of the springs are related to changes in the residence time of the water supplying the different springs. The weak impact of the soil solution modifications on the dissolution rates of other primary minerals and on the bulk precipitation rates of the clay minerals explains the relative stability over time of the concentrations of the other cations and dissolved silica in the water derived from the Strengbach springs. Further, the hydrochemical simulations suggest that the chemostatic behavior of the Strengbach springs cannot be explained by the mobilization of waters that are close to chemical equilibrium, but rather by a hydrological control of the spring water residence times. Finally, a

  8. Exploring Determinants of Spatial Variations in the Dengue Fever Epidemic Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model: A Case Study in the Joint Guangzhou-Foshan Area, China, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyan Ren

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever (DF is a common and rapidly spreading vector-borne viral disease in tropical and subtropical regions. In recent years, this imported disease has posed an increasing threat to public health in China, especially in many southern cities. Although the severity of DF outbreaks in these cities is generally associated with known risk factors at various administrative levels, spatial heterogeneities of these associations remain little understood on a finer scale. In this study, the neighboring Guangzhou and Foshan (GF cities were considered as a joint area for characterizing the spatial variations in the 2014 DF epidemic at various grid levels from 1 × 1 km2 to 6 × 6 km2. On an appropriate scale, geographically weighted regression (GWR models were employed to interpret the influences of socioeconomic and environmental factors on this epidemic across the GF area. DF transmissions in Guangzhou and Foshan cities presented synchronous temporal changes and spatial expansions during the main epidemic months. Across the GF area, this epidemic was obviously spatially featured at various grid levels, especially on the 2 × 2 km2 scale. Its spatial variations were relatively sufficiently explained by population size, road density, and economic status integrated in the GWR model with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AICc = 5227.97 and highest adjusted R square (0.732 values. These results indicated that these three socioeconomic factors acted as geographical determinants of spatial variability of the 2014 DF epidemic across the joint GF area, although some other potential factors should be added to improve the explaining the spatial variations in the central zones. This work improves our understanding of the effects of socioeconomic conditions on the spatial variations in this epidemic and helps local hygienic authorities to make targeted joint interventions for preventing and controlling this epidemic across the GF area.

  9. Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with nitrogen transport to study the spatial variation of carbon stocks and fluxes in a Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; He, Y.; Davis, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Most current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve topographically driven land surface heterogeneity (e.g., lateral water flow, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation) or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest biogeochemical model with nitrogen transport, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, and adding an advection dominated nitrogen transport module. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model, and is augmented by adding a topographic solar radiation module. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while nitrogen is transported among model grids via surface and subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with spatially-distributed leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory. The model-predicted aboveground vegetation carbon and soil carbon distributions generally agree with the macro patterns observed within the watershed. The importance of abiotic variables (including soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and soil mineral nitrogen) in predicting aboveground carbon distribution is calculated using a random forest. The result suggests that the spatial pattern of aboveground carbon is controlled by the distribution of soil mineral nitrogen. A Flux-PIHM-BGC simulation

  10. Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

    2018-01-01

    Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

  11. Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model to study the spatial variation of carbon processes in a Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Davis, K. J.; He, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Forest carbon processes are affected by, among other factors, soil moisture, soil temperature, soil nutrients and solar radiation. Most of the current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve the topographically driven hill-slope land surface heterogeneity or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest ecosystem model, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as the land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while soil nitrogen is transported among model grids via subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation information, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills critical zone observatory (SSHCZO). Model results suggest that the vegetation and soil carbon distribution is primarily constrained by nitorgen availability (affected by nitorgen transport via topographically driven subsurface flow), and also constrained by solar radiation and root zone soil moisture. The predicted vegetation and soil carbon distribution generally agrees with the macro pattern observed within the watershed. The coupled ecosystem-hydrologic model provides an important tool to study the impact of topography on watershed carbon processes, as well as the impact of climate change on water resources.

  12. A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

    2018-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

  13. A land use regression model for explaining spatial variation in air pollution levels using a wind sector based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, O; Donnelly, A; Nolan, P; Pilla, F; Misstear, B D; Broderick, B

    2018-03-02

    Estimating pollutant concentrations at a local and regional scale is essential in environmental and health policy decision making. Here we present a novel land use regression (LUR) modelling methodology that exploits the high temporal resolution of fixed-site monitoring (FSM) to produce a national-scale air quality model for the key pollutant NO 2 . The methodology partitions concentration time series from a national FSM network into wind-dependent sectors or "wedges". A LUR model is derived using predictor variables calculated within the directional wind sectors, and compared against the long-term average concentrations within each sector. Validation results, based on 15 FSM training sites, show that the model captured 78% of the spatial variability in NO 2 across the Republic of Ireland. This compares favourably to traditional LUR models based on purpose-designed monitoring campaigns despite using approximately half the number of monitoring points. Results also demonstrate the value of incorporating the relative position of emission source and receptor into the empirical LUR model structure. We applied the model at a high-resolution across the Republic of Ireland to enable applications such as the study of environmental exposure and human health, assessing representativeness of air quality monitoring networks and informing environmental management and policy makers. While the study focuses on Ireland, the methodology also has potential applicability for other criteria pollutants where appropriate FSM and meteorological networks exist. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Full-Scale Modeling Explaining Large Spatial Variations of Nitrous Oxide Fluxes in a Step-Feed Plug-Flow Wastewater Treatment Reactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Bing-Jie; Pan, Yuting; van den Akker, Ben; Ye, Liu; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2015-08-04

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission data collected from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) show huge variations between plants and within one plant (both spatially and temporarily). Such variations and the relative contributions of various N2O production pathways are not fully understood. This study applied a previously established N2O model incorporating two currently known N2O production pathways by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) (namely the AOB denitrification and the hydroxylamine pathways) and the N2O production pathway by heterotrophic denitrifiers to describe and provide insights into the large spatial variations of N2O fluxes in a step-feed full-scale activated sludge plant. The model was calibrated and validated by comparing simulation results with 40 days of N2O emission monitoring data as well as other water quality parameters from the plant. The model demonstrated that the relatively high biomass specific nitrogen loading rate in the Second Step of the reactor was responsible for the much higher N2O fluxes from this section. The results further revealed the AOB denitrification pathway decreased and the NH2OH oxidation pathway increased along the path of both Steps due to the increasing dissolved oxygen concentration. The overall N2O emission from this step-feed WWTP would be largely mitigated if 30% of the returned sludge were returned to the Second Step to reduce its biomass nitrogen loading rate.

  15. Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality for Agricultural Lands with Crop Rotation in China by Using a HYPE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunxing Yin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Many water quality models have been successfully used worldwide to predict nutrient losses from anthropogenically impacted catchments, but hydrological and nutrient simulations with limited data are difficult considering the transfer of model parameters and complication of model calibration and validation. This study aims: (i to assess the performance capabilities of a new and relatively more advantageous model, namely, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE, that simulates stream flow and nutrient load in agricultural areas by using a multi-site and multi-objective parameter calibration method and (ii to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorous (TP concentrations and loads with crop rotation by using the model for the first time. A parameter estimation tool (PEST was used to calibrate parameters. Results show that the parameters related to the effective soil porosity were highly sensitive to hydrological modeling. N balance was largely controlled by soil denitrification processes. P balance was influenced by the sedimentation rate and production/decay of P in rivers and lakes. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variations of discharge and TN/TP relatively well in both calibration (2006–2008 and validation (2009–2010 periods. Among the obtained data, the lowest Nash-Suttclife efficiency of discharge, daily TN load, and daily TP load were 0.74, 0.51, and 0.54, respectively. The seasonal variations of daily TN concentrations in the entire simulation period were insufficient, indicated that crop rotation changed the timing and amount of N output. Monthly TN and TP simulation yields revealed that nutrient outputs were abundant in summer in terms of the corresponding discharge. The area-weighted TN and TP load annual yields in five years showed that nutrient loads were extremely high along Hong and Ru rivers, especially in agricultural lands.

  16. Spatial cluster modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Lawson, Andrew B

    2002-01-01

    Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this book reviews the state-of-the-art in spatial clustering and spatial cluster modelling, bringing together research and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. It begins with an overview of the field, then presents a series of chapters that illuminate the nature and purpose of cluster modelling within different application areas, including astrophysics, epidemiology, ecology, and imaging. The focus then shifts to methods, with discussions on point and object process modelling, perfect sampling of cluster processes, partitioning in space and space-time, spatial and spatio-temporal process modelling, nonparametric methods for clustering, and spatio-temporal ...

  17. Spatial Uncertainty Analysis of Ecological Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jager, H.I.; Ashwood, T.L.; Jackson, B.L.; King, A.W.

    2000-09-02

    The authors evaluated the sensitivity of a habitat model and a source-sink population model to spatial uncertainty in landscapes with different statistical properties and for hypothetical species with different habitat requirements. Sequential indicator simulation generated alternative landscapes from a source map. Their results showed that spatial uncertainty was highest for landscapes in which suitable habitat was rare and spatially uncorrelated. Although, they were able to exert some control over the degree of spatial uncertainty by varying the sampling density drawn from the source map, intrinsic spatial properties (i.e., average frequency and degree of spatial autocorrelation) played a dominant role in determining variation among realized maps. To evaluate the ecological significance of landscape variation, they compared the variation in predictions from a simple habitat model to variation among landscapes for three species types. Spatial uncertainty in predictions of the amount of source habitat depended on both the spatial life history characteristics of the species and the statistical attributes of the synthetic landscapes. Species differences were greatest when the landscape contained a high proportion of suitable habitat. The predicted amount of source habitat was greater for edge-dependent (interior) species in landscapes with spatially uncorrelated(correlated) suitable habitat. A source-sink model demonstrated that, although variation among landscapes resulted in relatively little variation in overall population growth rate, this spatial uncertainty was sufficient in some situations, to produce qualitatively different predictions about population viability (i.e., population decline vs. increase).

  18. Standing variation in spatially growing populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusco, Diana; Gralka, Matti; Kayser, Jona; Hallatschek, Oskar

    Patterns of genetic diversity not only reflect the evolutionary history of a species but they can also determine the evolutionary response to environmental change. For instance, the standing genetic diversity of a microbial population can be key to rescue in the face of an antibiotic attack. While genetic diversity is in general shaped by both demography and evolution, very little is understood when both factors matter, as e.g. for biofilms with pronounced spatial organization. Here, we quantitatively explore patterns of genetic diversity by using microbial colonies and well-mixed test tube populations as antipodal model systems with extreme and very little spatial structure, respectively. We find that Eden model simulations and KPZ theory can remarkably reproduce the genetic diversity in microbial colonies obtained via population sequencing. The excellent agreement allows to draw conclusions on the resilience of spatially-organized populations and to uncover new strategies to contain antibiotic resistance.

  19. Estimates of spatial variation in evaporation using satellite-derived surface temperature and a water balance model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Biggs, T.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2008-01-01

    Evaporation dominates the water balance in arid and semi-arid areas. The estimation of evaporation by land-cover type is important for proper management of scarce water resources. Here, we present a method to assess spatial and temporal patterns of actual evaporation by relating water balance

  20. DISENTANGLING INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION UNCERTAINTIES IN SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS: A NOVEL VISUALIZATION TECHNIQUE FOR THE SPATIAL VARIATION OF PREDICTOR VARIABLE COLINEARITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Rödder

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. - Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly used in many scientific fields, with most studies requiring the application of the SDM to predict the likelihood of occurrence and/or environmental suitability in locations and time periods outside the range of the data set used to fit the model. Uncertainty in the quality of SDM predictions caused by errors of interpolation and extrapolation has been acknowledged for a long time, but the explicit consideration of the magnitude of such errors is, as yet, uncommon. Among other issues, the spatial variation in the colinearity of the environmental predictor variables used in the development of SDMs may cause misleading predictions when applying SDMs to novel locations and time periods. In this paper, we provide a framework for the spatially explicit identification of areas prone to errors caused by changes in the inter-correlation structure (i.e. their colinearity of environmental predictors used for SDM development. The proposed method is compatible with all SDM algorithms currently employed, and expands the available toolbox for assessing the uncertainties raising from SDM predictions. We provide an implementation of the analysis as a script for the R statistical platform in an online appendix.

  1. Hydro-geochemical modeling of the spatial and the temporal geochemical variations of the granitic Strengbach catchment springs (Vosges massif, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerer, Julien; Chabaux, François; Lucas, Yann; Pierret, Marie Claire; Viville, Daniel; Fritz, Bertrand; Clement, Alain; Beaulieu, Emilie; Negrel, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Regular analysis of the major element concentrations in waters from springs emerging on the Strengbach catchment is made for more than 20 years (OHGE, Observatoire Hydro-Géochimique de l'Environnement). These data confirm the spatial variability of geochemical characteristics of the Strengbach springs linked, at least partly, to the lithological variability of the substratum (Pierret et al., 2014). The data also indicate that at the first order, the geochemical fluxes exported from each spring are mainly linked to the spring discharges, without significant variations of the relationships linking these two parameters between 1990 and 2010. There is also no observation of significant variations for the dissolved silica and for most of the cationic concentrations with time. Only a significant decrease of the Ca concentrations is observed for the Strengbach springs from 1990 to 2010. Numerical simulations, performed with the KIRMAT hydro-geochemical code, show that such a decrease can be considered as the response in the "bedrock" of the water-rock interactions to the variations of the soil solution chemical compositions recorded over the last 20 years, marked by a significant increase of pH and decrease of Ca concentrations. In particular, the modeling results show that the Ca concentration decrease is controlled by the couple apatite/clays, and that significant modifications of the apatite dissolution rate and clay compositions occurred between 1990 and 2010. This study shows that the temporal evolution of the Strengbach spring chemistry cannot be explained by the only variations of the clay mineral compositions, i.e. a modification of the chemical composition of the precipitated clays or a modification of the ionic exchange capacity of the clay minerals, but that it is definitely the interrelations between the apatite and the clay minerals that are involved.

  2. Variational approach for spatial point process intensity estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coeurjolly, Jean-Francois; Møller, Jesper

    is assumed to be of log-linear form β+θ⊤z(u) where z is a spatial covariate function and the focus is on estimating θ. The variational estimator is very simple to implement and quicker than alternative estimation procedures. We establish its strong consistency and asymptotic normality. We also discuss its...... finite-sample properties in comparison with the maximum first order composite likelihood estimator when considering various inhomogeneous spatial point process models and dimensions as well as settings were z is completely or only partially known....

  3. Modeling spatial and temporal variations in temperature and salinity during stratification and overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Tempel, Regina N.; Stillings, Lisa L.; Shevenell, Lisa A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity in Dexter pit lake in arid northern Nevada, and describes an approach for modeling the physical processes that operate in such systems. The pit lake contains about 596,200 m 3 of dilute, near neutral (pHs 6.7-9) water. Profiles of temperature, conductivity, and selected element concentrations were measured almost monthly during 1999 and 2000. In winter (January-March), the pit lake was covered with ice and bottom water was warmer (5.3 deg. C) with higher total dissolved solids (0.298 g/L) than overlying water (3.96 deg. C and 0.241 g/L), suggesting inflow of warm (11.7 deg. C) groundwater with a higher conductivity than the lake (657 versus 126-383 μS/cm). Seasonal surface inflow due to spring snowmelt resulted in lower conductivity in the surface water (232-247 μS/cm) relative to deeper water (315-318 μS/cm). The pit lake was thermally stratified from late spring through early fall, and the water column turned over in late November (2000) or early December (1999). The pit lake is a mixture of inflowing surface water and groundwater that has subsequently been evapoconcentrated in the arid environment. Linear relationships between conductivity and major and some minor (B, Li, Sr, and U) ions indicate conservative mixing for these elements. Similar changes in the elevations of the pit lake surface and nearby groundwater wells during the year suggest that the pit lake is a flow-through system. This observation and geochemical information were used to configure an one-dimensional hydrodynamics model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model or DYRESM) that predicts seasonal changes in temperature and salinity based on the interplay of physical processes, including heating and cooling (solar insolation, long and short wave radiation, latent, and sensible heat), hydrologic flow (inflow and outflow by surface and ground water, pumping, evaporation, and precipitation), and transfers of momentum (wind

  4. Study of Magnetic Field Spatial Variations in the Southern Hemisphere's Low Latitudes due to Different Interplanetary Structures Using the 3-D MHD SWMF/BATSRUS Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, V. M. C. E. S.; Jauer, P. R.; Alves, L. R.; Padilha, A. L.; Padua, M. B.; Vitorello, I.; Alves, M. V.; Da Silva, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Interplanetary structures such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), Shocks, Corotating Interaction Regions (CIR) and Magnetic Clouds (MC) interfere directly on Space Weather conditions and can cause severe and intense disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field as measured in space and on the ground. During magnetically disturbed periods characterized by world-wide, abrupt variations of the geomagnetic field, large and intense current systems can be induced and amplified within the Earth even at low latitudes. Such current systems are known as geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and can cause damage to power transmission lines, transformers and the degradation of pipelines. As part of an effort to estimate GIC intensities throughout the low to equatorial latitudes of the Brazilian territory, we used the 3-D MHD SWMF/BATSRUS code to estimate spatial variations of the geomagnetic field during periods when the magnetosphere is under the influence of CME and MC structures. Specifically, we used the CalcDeltaB tool (Rastatter et al., Space Weather, 2014) to provide a proxy for the spatial variations of the geomagnetic field, with a 1 minute cadence, at 31 virtual magnetometer stations located in the proposed study region. The stations are spatially arranged in a two-dimensional network with each station being 5 degrees apart in latitude and longitude. In a preliminary analysis, we found that prior to the arrival of each interplanetary structure, there is no appreciable variation in the components of the geomagnetic field between the virtual stations. However, when the interplanetary structures reach the magnetosphere, each station perceives the magnetic field variation differently, so that it is not possible to use a single station to represent the magnetic field perturbation throughout the Brazilian region. We discuss the minimum number and spacing between stations to adequately detail the geomagnetic field variations in this region.

  5. Equilibrium models and variational inequalities

    CERN Document Server

    Konnov, Igor

    2007-01-01

    The concept of equilibrium plays a central role in various applied sciences, such as physics (especially, mechanics), economics, engineering, transportation, sociology, chemistry, biology and other fields. If one can formulate the equilibrium problem in the form of a mathematical model, solutions of the corresponding problem can be used for forecasting the future behavior of very complex systems and, also, for correcting the the current state of the system under control. This book presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts in economics, including several models from related sciences.- Presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts and also the present state of investigations in this field- Describes static and dynamic input-output models, Walras, Cassel-Wald, spatial price, auction market, oligopolistic equilibrium models, transportation and migration equilibrium models- Covers the basics of theory and solution methods both for the complementarity and variational inequality probl...

  6. Empirical and model-based estimates of spatial and temporal variations in net primary productivity in semi-arid grasslands of Northern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwei Zhang

    Full Text Available Spatiotemporal variations in net primary productivity (NPP reflect the dynamics of water and carbon in the biosphere, and are often closely related to temperature and precipitation. We used the ecosystem model known as the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA to estimate NPP of semiarid grassland in northern China counties between 2001 and 2013. Model estimates were strongly linearly correlated with observed values from different counties (slope = 0.76 (p < 0.001, intercept = 34.7 (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 35 g C·m-2·year-1, bias = -0.11 g C·m-2·year-1. We also quantified inter-annual changes in NPP over the 13-year study period. NPP varied between 141 and 313 g C·m-2·year-1, with a mean of 240 g C·m-2·year-1. NPP increased from west to east each year, and mean precipitation in each county was significantly positively correlated with NPP-annually, and in summer and autumn. Mean precipitation was positively related to NPP in spring, but not significantly so. Annual and summer temperatures were mostly negatively correlated with NPP, but temperature was positively correlated with spring and autumn NPP. Spatial correlation and partial correlation analyses at the pixel scale confirmed precipitation is a major driver of NPP. Temperature was negatively correlated with NPP in 99% of the regions at the annual scale, but after removing the effect of precipitation, temperature was positively correlated with the NPP in 77% of the regions. Our data show that temperature effects on production depend heavily on recent precipitation. Results reported here have significant and far-reaching implications for natural resource management, given the enormous size of these grasslands and the numbers of people dependent on them.

  7. Modelling the Spatial-temporal Variation of Urban/peri-urban Forests and Their Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of North-West Sydney

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odeh, I. A.; Zou, X. L.

    2015-12-01

    In terms of total terrestrial sequestered carbon, the global soils and forests are recognized as the predominant C sinks. Even though urban forests stored a relatively small proportion of the total terrestrial C, they also provide other important ecosystem services such as improving air quality, cooling effect in buildings and aesthetics. Thus in view of these environmental services the quantification of urban tree is increasingly viewed as essential to the understanding of how these ecosystem services can be optimized. The aims of this paper are to: i) quantify the spatial-temporal distribution of urban forests in Northwest Sydney using remote sensing techniques; ii) determine the total urban C-storage over many decades; iii) apply UFORE model to estimate air pollutant removal ability of urban forest. The results revealed the estimated total trees in Northwest Sydney in 2011was approximately 2.3 million. These urban forests potentially store an estimated 1.3 million tons of carbon in various forms such as biomass, soil carbon, etc. The relative carbon sequestration rate of these trees was estimated to be about 20,500 tC/yr (equivalent to AUD 467,000/year). Furthermore, the results show that trees near buildings can potentially avoid AUD 12.9 million of energy cost every year and 70000 tons of carbon emission, the latter which is equivalent to additional savings of nearly AUD 1.6 million per year. We also estimated that urban forests in the study area could potentially remove about 44,600 tons of pollutants (mainly greenhouse gases) annually equivalent to a saving of about AUD 409 million per year. Thus the results reveal the spatial-temporal variation of urban vegetation in the last twenty year between 1991 and 2011. The study has showcased the importance and potential role of urban forests in preserving carbon and thus reducing GHG emissions into atmosphere. Furthermore, these results highlight the significant value of urban forests in term of pollutant removal

  8. An Application of Sq Variation Spatial Patterns on Diurnal Variation Correction in Marine Magnetic Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, X.; Yao, C.; Zheng, Y.; Li, Z.

    2017-12-01

    In the case of marine magnetic survey, especially in remote sea, it is hard to set a base-station (magnetometers in buoys or seabed) recording temporal variations of geomagnetic field simultaneously for diurnal variation correction. Available methods make numerical calculation, such as geographical interpolation and weighted average, by using simultaneous observations in land to get these inaccessible variations. However, as a result of ignoring the underlying physical mechanism, these numerical methods are always with substantial errors and limited applicable in sea area close to land. On the other hand, solar-quiet (Sq) daily variation, the main part of diurnal variation, is known to be generated by Sq current system in the E-region of ionosphere and has significant spatial patterns. On this basis, we collected massive geomagnetic data from geomagnetic observatories in China and got applicable patterns by analyzing Sq variations extracted from these data. The difference between the Sq variation curves of two stations in north and south side of Sq current respectively is Gaussian distributed over time. Taking this pattern into account, we choose Sq variation curve of the most south station as a base curve and fitted differences between curves of other stations and it by Gaussian functions. Then, an empirical model of latitude and longitude is obtained by regression analyzed coefficients of those Gaussian functions. After putting latitude and longitude of a position into this empirical model and adding the result curve to base curve, a Sq variation prediction of this position is achieved. The test result of this new method is much better than those numerical methods above: in the mid-low latitude, the prediction is effective in a much wider range of 20 degrees longitude and with remarkable lower errors.

  9. Spatial variation in nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardiopulmonary hospital admissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkema, Marieke B A; van Strien, Robert T; van der Zee, Saskia C; Mallant, Sanne F; Fischer, Paul; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Gehring, Ulrike

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Air pollution episodes are associated with increased cardiopulmonary hospital admissions. Cohort studies showed associations of spatial variation in traffic-related air pollution with respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Much less is known in particular about associations with

  10. Spatial and decadal variations in satellite-based terrestrial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Zhaolu Zhang

    2017-12-02

    s12040-017-0885-0. Spatial and decadal variations in satellite-based terrestrial evapotranspiration and drought over. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China during 1982–2009. Zhaolu Zhang1, Hui Kang2, Yunjun Yao3,.

  11. [Temporal and spatial variation of the optimal sowing dates of summer maize based on both statistical and processes models in Henan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Mei-xiu; Wang, Jing; Yu, Wei-dong; He, Di; Wang, Na; Dai, Tong; Sun, Yan; Tang, Jian-zhao; Chang, Qing

    2015-12-01

    Sowing date is one of the vital factors for determining crop yield. In this study, temporal and spatial variation of optimal sowing date of summer maize was analyzed by statistical model and the APSIM-Maize model in Henan Province, China. The results showed that average summer maize optimal sowing dates ranged from May 30 to June 13 across Henan Province with earlier sowing before June 8 in the southern part and later sowing from June 4 to June 13 in the northern part. The optimal sowing date in mountain area of western Henan Province should be around May 30. Late-maturing variety Nongda 108 should be planted at least two days earlier than middle-maturing variety Danyu 13. Under climate warming background, maize sowing should be postponed for at least 3 days if maize harvesting date could be delayed for a week. It was proposed that sowing should be delayed for about a week for a yearly less precipitation pattern while advanced for about a week for a yearly more precipitation pattern compared to the normal one. Across Henan Province, the optimal sowing dates of summer maize showed no significant change trend in 1971-2010, while the potential sowing period had been extended for some regions, such as south from Zhumadian, Yichuan, Nei-xiang and Nanyang in the middle part of Henan, Linzhou in the northern Henan and Sanmenxia in the western Henan, as a result from advanced maturity of winter wheat due to increasing temperature and winter wheat cultivar change. Optimal sowing dates at 76.7% of the study stations showed no significant difference between the two methods. It was recommended that the northern Henan should sow maize immediately after any rainfall and replant afterward, while the southern Henan should not sow maize until that there were valid precipitation (3.9 mm and 8.3 mm for upper south and south parts, respectively) during sowing period, both required enough precipitation during key water requirement period and optimal temperature during grain

  12. Is there further evidence for spatial variation of fundamental constants?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berengut, J. C.; Flambaum, V. V.; King, J. A.; Curran, S. J.; Webb, J. K.

    2011-01-01

    Indications of spatial variation of the fine-structure constant, α, based on study of quasar absorption systems have recently been reported [J. K. Webb, J. A. King, M. T. Murphy, V. V. Flambaum, R. F. Carswell, and M. B. Bainbridge, arXiv:1008.3907.]. The physics that causes this α-variation should have other observable manifestations, and this motivates us to look for complementary astrophysical effects. In this paper we propose a method to test whether spatial variation of fundamental constants existed during the epoch of big bang nucleosynthesis and study existing measurements of deuterium abundance for a signal. We also examine existing quasar absorption spectra data that are sensitive to variation of the electron-to-proton mass ratio μ and x=α 2 μg p for spatial variation.

  13. Spatial regression techniques for inter-population data: studying the relationships between morphological and environmental variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, S I; Diniz-Filho, J A F; Bernal, V; Gonzalez, P N

    2010-02-01

    Understanding the importance of environmental dimensions behind the morphological variation among populations has long been a central goal of evolutionary biology. The main objective of this study was to review the spatial regression techniques employed to test the association between morphological and environmental variables. In addition, we show empirically how spatial regression techniques can be used to test the association of cranial form variation among worldwide human populations with a set of ecological variables, taking into account the spatial autocorrelation in data. We suggest that spatial autocorrelation must be studied to explore the spatial structure underlying morphological variation and incorporated in regression models to provide more accurate statistical estimates of the relationships between morphological and ecological variables. Finally, we discuss the statistical properties of these techniques and the underlying reasons for using the spatial approach in population studies.

  14. A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

  15. Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla; Berge, H

    2011-01-01

    Deriving a parameterisation of ammonia emissions for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) is a complex problem as the emission varies locally as a result of local climate and local agricultural management. In current CTMs such factors are generally not taken into account. This paper demonstra......Deriving a parameterisation of ammonia emissions for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) is a complex problem as the emission varies locally as a result of local climate and local agricultural management. In current CTMs such factors are generally not taken into account. This paper...... demonstrates how local climate and local management can be accounted for in CTMs by applying a modular approach for deriving data as input to a dynamic ammonia emission model for Europe. Default data are obtained from information in the RAINS system, and it is demonstrated how this dynamic emission model based...

  16. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

  17. Spatial and temporal variations in shallow wetland groundwater quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schot, Paul P.; Pieber, Simone M.

    2012-02-01

    SummaryWetlands worldwide are threatened by environmental change. Differences in groundwater composition is one of the factors affecting wetland terrestrial floristic biodiversity. However, few studies discuss variations in wetland groundwater composition. This study presents an analysis of local-scale spatial and short-term temporal variations in 15 groundwater composition parameters of the 7 km2 Naardermeer wetland nature reserve in The Netherlands. Data is available from a network of 35 groundwater wells with 2-4 filters each, at depths between 50 and 800 cm, which were sampled about monthly over a 1-year period, totalling 1042 chemical analysis from 103 filter screens. Relative standard deviations indicate large differences in variation between parameters. Largest spatial and temporal variations were found for nutrients (NO3-, PO43-, NH4+) and redox sensitive parameters (Fe, Mn), and lowest variations for macroions and SiO2. A horizontal zonation in groundwater concentrations has been found related to soil type and soil wetness, with largest horizontal decrease in NO3- and SO42-, and largest increase in Fe and SiO2, going in the groundwater flow direction from dry sandy soils to wet peat/clay soils. No clear horizontal patterns have been found for the macroions. Spatial zonations in the north-south direction and with depth are absent for all parameters. Spatial and temporal variations were found to be related. 3D-maps indicate highest temporal fluctuations at filter screens with lowest median concentrations for NO3-, SO42- and Fe, but the reverse pattern for SiO2. High temporal variations of nutrients and redox sensitive parameters could not be traced back to a seasonal trend. The spatial and temporal variability of groundwater quality parameters as presented in this study, together with their reported effects on different vegetation types, may be used to design efficient monitoring schemes by nature managers having set specific vegetation development targets

  18. Modeling of spatial variations of growth within apical domes by means of the growth tensor. II. Growth specified on dome surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zygmunt Hejnowicz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of the elemental relative rate of growth are modeled for parabolic, elliptic and hyperbolic domes of shoot apices by using the growth tensor in a suitable curvilinear coordinate system when the mode of area growth on the dome surface is known. Variations of growth rates within the domes are obtained in forms of computer-made maps for the following variants of growth on the dome surface: (1 constant meridional growth rate, (2 isotropic area growth, (3 anisotropy of area growth which becomes more intensive with increasing distance from the vertex. In variants 1 and 2 a maximum of volumetric growth rate appears in the center of the dome. Such a distribution of growth seems to be unrealistic. However, the corresponding growth tensors are interesting because they can be used in combination with other growth tensors to get the expected minimum volumetric growth rate in the dome center.

  19. Modeling for spatial multilevel structural data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Suqin; He, Xiaoqun

    2013-03-01

    The traditional multilevel model assumed independence between groups. However, the datasets grouped by geographical units often has spatial dependence. The individual is influenced not only by its region but also by the adjacent regions, and level-2 residual distribution assumption of traditional multilevel model is violated. In order to deal with such spatial multilevel data, we introduce spatial statistics and spatial econometric models into multilevel model, and apply spatial parameters and adjacency matrix in traditional level-2 model to reflect the spatial autocorrelation. Spatial lag model express spatial effects. We build spatial multilevel model which consider both multilevel thinking and spatial correlation.

  20. Spatial variation of environmental impacts of regional biomass chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilst, van der F.; Lesschen, J.P.; Dam, van J.M.C.; Riksen, M.J.P.M.; Verweij, P.A.; Sanders, J.P.M.; Faaij, A.

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the spatial variation of potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crops is quantitatively assessed. The cultivation of sugar beet and Miscanthus for bioethanol production in the North of the Netherlands is used as a case study. The environmental impacts included are greenhouse gas

  1. Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness for homogenized moment magnitude catalogue for northeast India. Ranjit Das H R ... Orthogonal regression relations for conversion of body and surface wave magnitudes to w,HRVD based on events data for the period 1978–2006 have been derived.

  2. Spatial Variation of Magnetotelluric Field Components in simple 2D ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The E-polarization mode electromagnetic field components were computed for different aspect ratios of the inhomogeneity and for different frequencies of the incident waves. The results show that as aspect ratio of the inhomogeneity is reduced the spatial variation of the electric field component Ex is reduced and that of the ...

  3. Spatial Variation in Groundwater Pollution from Abattoir Effluents in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study therefore concluded that the water in Groups A and B, was not fit for drinking unless adequately treated. It was recommended that there is the need for the treatment of the abattoir effluents before discharging them into the environment. Keywords: Spatial variation, Groundwater, Pollution, Abattoir, Effluents, Water ...

  4. Spatial and decadal variations in satellite-based terrestrial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 8. Spatial and decadal variations in ... Ayad M Fadhil Yuhu Zhang Kun Jia. Volume 126 Issue 8 December 2017 Article ID 119 ... of Kufa, Najaf 34003, Iraq. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China.

  5. Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mogenic zones keeping in view the spatial variations in earthquake occurrence and prevalent tectonics. Mc, 'b' and 'a' values have been estimated with respect to each zone, and the ..... ing largely EW trends and deeper events depict relatively higher 'b' values of 0.88 and 0.78, respec- tively. Seismogenic zones, VII and ...

  6. Spatial and temporal variation in cadmium body loads of four ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two-way analysis of variance indicated that spatial (location) rather than temporal (seasonal) factors affected Cd concentrations in the invertebrates. Cd concentrations in False Bay sometimes exceeded the norms or water quality standards. Key words: Cd, invertebrate body burdens, marine pollution, seasonal variations.

  7. Spatial and temporal variations in the occurrences of wet periods ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This study highlights the hydro-climatic features of the five wet periods contributing in different percentages to the annual rainfall total over major river basins in India.Spatial and temporal variations in the parameters such as starting date,duration and rainfall intensity of these wet periods throughout India have been ...

  8. Spatial variation of bacterial community composition near the Luzon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial variation of bacterial community composition near the Luzon strait assessed by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis ... chain reaction (PCR)-amplified bacterial 16S ribosomal deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) gene fragments and interpreted the results; its relationship with physical and ...

  9. Temporal and spatial variations in fly ash quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hower, J.C.; Trimble, A.S. [Center for Applied Energy Research, University of Kentucky, 2540 Research Park Drive, 40511 Lexington, KY (United States); Eble, C.F. [Kentucky Geological Survey, Mining and Mineral Resources Building, University of Kentucky, 40506 Lexington, KY (United States)

    2001-10-05

    Fly ash quality, both as the amount of petrographically distinguishable carbons and in chemistry, varies in both time and space. Temporal variations are a function of a number of variables. Variables can include variations in the coal blend organic petrography, mineralogy, and chemistry; variations in the pulverization of the coal, both as a function of the coal's Hardgrove grindability index and as a function of the maintenance and settings of the pulverizers; and variations in the operating conditions of the boiler, including changes in the pollution control system. Spatial variation, as an instantaneous measure of fly ash characteristics, should not involve changes in the first two sets of variables listed above. Spatial variations are a function of the gas flow within the boiler and ducts, certain flow conditions leading to a tendency for segregation of the less-dense carbons in one portion of the gas stream.Caution must be applied in sampling fly ash. Samples from a single bin, or series of bins, may not be representative of the whole fly ash, providing a biased view of the nature of the material. Further, it is generally not possible to be certain about variation until the analysis of the ash is complete.

  10. Spatial and temporal variations of aridity indices in Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şarlak, Nermin; Mahmood Agha, Omar M. A.

    2017-06-01

    This study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of the aridity indices to reveal the desertification vulnerability of Iraq region. Relying on temperature and precipitation data taken from 28 meteorological stations for 31 years, the study aims to determine (1) dry land types and their delineating boundaries and (2) temporal change in aridity conditions in Iraq. Lang's aridity (Im), De Martonne's aridity (Am), United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) aridity (AIu), and Erinç aridity (IE) indices were selected in this study because of the scarcity of the observed data. The analysis of the spatial variation of aridity indices exhibited that the arid and semi-arid regions cover about 97% of the country's areas. As for temporal variations, it was observed that the aridity indices tend to decrease (statistically significant or not) for all stations. The cumulative sum charts (CUSUMs) were applied to detect the year on which the climate pattern of aridity indices had changed from one pattern to another. The abrupt change point was detected around year 1997 for the majority of the stations. Thus, the spatial and temporal aridity characteristics in Iraq were examined for the two periods 1980-1997 and 1998-2011 (before and after the change-point year) to observe the influence of abrupt change point on aridity phenomena. The spatial variation after 1997 was observed from semi-arid (dry sub humid) to arid (semi-arid) especially at the stations located in northern Iraq, while hyper-arid and arid climatic conditions were still dominant over southern and central Iraq. Besides, the negative temporal variations of the two periods 1980-1997 and 1998-2011 were obtained for almost every station. As a result, it was emphasized that Iraq region, like other Middle East regions, has become drier after 1997. The observed reduction in precipitation and increase in temperature for this region seem to make the situation worse in future.

  11. Spatial and temporal variability of column-integrated CO2: identifying drivers and variations from high-resolution model simulations and OCO-2 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L.; Wennberg, P. O.; Kawa, S. R.; O'Dell, C.; Osterman, G. B.; Wunch, D.

    2015-12-01

    Isolating the drivers and variations in column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) is essential for mining information from space-based remote-sensing observations, such as those available from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). Contrary to the large number of studies analyzing the variability of surface CO2 concentrations, studies analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of XCO2 are relatively limited. More importantly, these results are either based on a sparse network of ground-based total column observations (i.e., from the Total Column Carbon Observing Network - TCCON) or derived from low-resolution model simulations. In this study, using the high-resolution (~7 km) GEOS-5 model simulated fields and the high-density observations from OCO-2, we investigate how variability in surface fluxes and/or meteorological drivers impact the observed XCO2 variability across a range of scales. The study focuses on ~13:30 LT and is designed to highlight the significant contributors to local and regional scale XCO2 variability from daily to seasonal timescales. In collaboration with the OCO-2 Validation team, the variability information is also being used to identify small geographical areas (<1° or ~100km) where the XCO2 is expected to be relatively constant. These small areas then serve as target regions for examining the potential of external variables (for e.g., surface reflectance, aerosol) to generate biases (variability) in the XCO2 retrievals in those regions. We will also show comparison results of the model-based variability analyses with the variability statistics derived from actual OCO-2 retrievals. This comparison serves as an important consistency check for the simulated fields from the GEOS-5 model. Finally, we will review these results in terms of assessing and quantifying representation errors as well as developing and implementing data thinning/'superobbing' algorithms for OCO-2 retrievals.

  12. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variation of seasonal snow accumulation in alpine catchments using airborne laser scanning : basic research for the adaptation of spatially distributed hydrological models to mountain regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helfricht, K.

    2014-01-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of snow accumulation is a prerequisitefor adaptating hydro-meteorological models to achieve realistic simulations of therunoff from mountain catchments. Therefore, the spatial snow depthdistribution in complex topography of ice-free terrain and glaciers was investigatedusing airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. This thesis presents for the first time an analysis of the persistence and the variability of the snow patterns at the end of five accumulation seasons in a comparatively large catchment. ALS derived seasonal surface elevation changes on glaciers were compared to the actual snow depths calculated from ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements. Areas of increased deviations. In the investigated region, the ALS-derived snow depths on most of the glacier surface do not deviate markedly from actual snow depths. 75% of a the total area showed low inter-annual variability of standardized snow depths at the end of the five accumulation seasons. The high inter-annual variability of snow depths could be attributed to changes in the ice cover within the investigated 10-yearperiod for much of the remaining area. Avalanches and snow sloughs continuously contribute to the accumulation on glaciers, but their share of the total snow covervolume is small. The assimilation of SWE maps calculated from ALS data in the adaptation of snow-hydrological models to mountain catchments improved the results not only for the but also for the simulated snow cover distribution and for the mass balance of the glaciers. The results demonstrate that ALS data are a beneficial source for extensive analysis of snow patterns and for modeling the runoff from high Alpine catchments.(author) [de

  13. Demographic Fluctuations versus Spatial Variation in the Competition between Fast and Slow Dispersers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doering, Charles R.; Waddell, Jack N.; Sander, Leonard M.

    2010-03-01

    Dispersal is an important strategy employed by populations to locate and exploit favorable habitats. Given competition in a spatially heterogeneous landscape, what is the optimal rate of dispersal? Continuous population models predict that, all other features the same, a species with a lower dispersal rate always drives a competing species to extinction in the presence of spatial variation of resources. But the introduction of intrinsic demographic fluctuations can reverse this conclusion. We present a simple model in which competition between the exploitation of resources and population birth-death fluctuations leads to victory by either the faster or slower of two species depending on the environmental parameters. A simplified limiting case of the model, analyzed by closing the moment and correlation hierarchy, quantitatively predicts which species will win in the complete model under given parameters of spatial variation and average carrying capacity.

  14. Impact of spatial-temporal variations of climatic variables onsummer maize yield in North China Plain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wu, D.; Yu, Q.; Wang, E.; Hengsdijk, H.

    2008-01-01

    Summer maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the dominant crops in the North China Plain (NCP). Itsgrowth is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal variation of climatic variables, especially solar radiation, temperature and rainfall. The WOFOST (version 7.1) model was applied to evaluate the impact of

  15. Taxonomic, spatial and adaptive genetic variation of Beta section Beta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrello, Marco; Henry, Karine; Devaux, Pierre; Desprez, Bruno; Manel, Stéphanie

    2016-02-01

    The genetic variation of Beta section Beta is structured into four taxonomic and spatial clusters. There are significant associations between molecular markers and environmental variables. We investigated the genetic diversity of Beta section Beta, which includes the wild and cultivated relatives of the sugar beet. The taxa included in the study were: Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima, B. vulgaris subsp. adanensis, B. macrocarpa, B. patula and B. vulgaris subsp. vulgaris (garden beet, leaf beet and swiss chards). We collected 1264 accessions originating from the entire distribution area of these taxa and genotyped them for 4436 DArT markers (DArTs). We showed that the genetic variation of these accessions is structured into four taxonomic and spatial clusters: (1) samples of Beta macrocarpa, (2) samples of Beta vulgaris subsp. adanensis, (3) Mediterranean and Asian samples and (4) Atlantic and Northern European samples. These last two clusters were mainly composed of samples of Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima. We investigated in deeper detail the genetic structure of B. vulgaris subsp. maritima, which constituted the majority (80%) of the wild samples. This subspecies exhibited a clinal genetic variation from South-East to North-West. We detected some markers significantly associated to environmental variables in B. vulgaris subsp. maritima. These associations are interpreted as results of natural selection. The variable most often involved in the associations was annual mean temperature. Therefore, these markers can be useful for the development of frost-tolerant winter beets and drought-tolerant rain-fed beets.

  16. Variational methods in molecular modeling

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents tutorial overviews for many applications of variational methods to molecular modeling. Topics discussed include the Gibbs-Bogoliubov-Feynman variational principle, square-gradient models, classical density functional theories, self-consistent-field theories, phase-field methods, Ginzburg-Landau and Helfrich-type phenomenological models, dynamical density functional theory, and variational Monte Carlo methods. Illustrative examples are given to facilitate understanding of the basic concepts and quantitative prediction of the properties and rich behavior of diverse many-body systems ranging from inhomogeneous fluids, electrolytes and ionic liquids in micropores, colloidal dispersions, liquid crystals, polymer blends, lipid membranes, microemulsions, magnetic materials and high-temperature superconductors. All chapters are written by leading experts in the field and illustrated with tutorial examples for their practical applications to specific subjects. With emphasis placed on physical unders...

  17. Variation in estuarine littoral nematode populations over three spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodda, M.

    1990-04-01

    The population characteristics of the nematode fauna from five replicate cores taken over four seasons at nine sites within mangroves, at three different estuaries on the south-east coast of Australia, are compared. Using cluster analysis, principal co-ordinate analysis and other statistical techniques, the variation in nematode populations is identified as arising from several sources: temperature changes between the more northerly and southerly estuaries (5%); changes in grain size and organic content of the sediment between sites (22%); changes between sites in the frequency of samples containing certain types of food, particularly associated with pools of water and surface topography (30%); stochastic changes in nematode populations within individual samples, probably caused by small scale spatial and temporal variability in food sources (35%); and seasonal changes at all the sites and estuaries (8%). The implications of this pattern of variation for the biology of the nematodes is discussed.

  18. Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

    2014-08-01

    Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate

  19. Spatial Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Bhutan and Links to Vegetation and Land Cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugyen Dorji

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Bhutan, located in the Himalayas in the South Asian monsoon region, has extremely high variation in elevation, climatic conditions, and land cover despite its small geographical area, as well as great biodiversity. This paper provides the first comprehensive description of climatic conditions in Bhutan. It assesses the spatial variation of temperature and precipitation across the country and evaluates the causes for this variation based on daily data from 70 meteorological stations that have been recording data for time spans ranging from 3 to 21 years. Temperature and precipitation show contrasting spatial variation, with temperature primarily affected by elevation and precipitation by latitude. Models were developed using mixed linear regression models to predict seasonal and annual mean temperature and precipitation based on geographical location. Using linear regression we found that temperatures changed by about 0.5°C for every 100 m of change in elevation, with lapse rates being highest in February, March, and November and lowest from June to August. The lapse rate was highest for minimum temperatures and lowest for maximum temperatures, with the greatest difference during winter. The spatial distribution of precipitation was mainly controlled by latitude, having a quadratic relationship, with the highest rates in the southern foothills of the Himalayan range and the lowest at midlatitudes. The land cover is affected by topography and local climate, with variations in temperature being a main deciding factor for vegetation types; most human settlements and associated land uses are concentrated at lower elevations.

  20. Principal component analysis to evaluate the spatial variation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Discretisation of the particle sizes is highlighted as both a challenge and an opportunity and it is recommended that it be used as a tuning parameter in gauging kaolin variations across samples and in validating new predictive modeling applications. Successful applications will depend on how clay and data scientists keep ...

  1. Analysis of the Spatial Variation of Hospitalization Admissions for Hypertension Disease in Shenzhen, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhensheng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In China, awareness about hypertension, the treatment rate and the control rate are low compared to developed countries, even though China’s aging population has grown, especially in those areas with a high degree of urbanization. However, limited epidemiological studies have attempted to describe the spatial variation of the geo-referenced data on hypertension disease over an urban area of China. In this study, we applied hierarchical Bayesian models to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk for hypertension admissions throughout Shenzhen in 2011. The final model specification includes an intercept and spatial components (structured and unstructured. Although the road density could be used as a covariate in modeling, it is an indirect factor on the relative risk. In addition, spatial scan statistics and spatial analysis were utilized to identify the spatial pattern and to map the clusters. The results showed that the relative risk for hospital admission for hypertension has high-value clusters in the south and southeastern Shenzhen. This study aimed to identify some specific regions with high relative risk, and this information is useful for the health administrators. Further research should address more-detailed data collection and an explanation of the spatial patterns.

  2. Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

    2012-03-12

    A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

  3. Numerical studies on spatial variation of the in situ stress field at Forsmark - a further step. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark - stage 2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hakami, Hossein [Itasca Geomekanik AB, Solna (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The present work is an investigation into the depiction of a spatial distribution of the in situ stresses at the Forsmark candidate site. The methodology is based on numerical simulations of the pre-occurrences of perturbation of the stress field, produced by the deformations/displacements that rock mass/major fracture zones undergo. The distinct element program DEC, was used for the purpose. Forsmark area is dominated mainly by the Forsmark and the Singoe faults but also by a number of major fracture zones. Almost all these structures, not only that they are reported to dip vertically, but they more or less run sub-parallel with the inferred overall orientation of the major principal stress, s1. These zones, as a result, cause a fairly limited perturbation in the state of in situ stress at the site. At a diminished scale, however, fracture zones of a lesser extent - which dip obliquely and run at an angle in relation to the s1 orientation - produce a significant perturbation of the state of stress. This work also included two preliminary investigations on: - Assessing the remote orientation of the major principal stress. This was done by looking at the crustal shortening, which characterizes in part the past tectonic activities of the Fennoscandian shield. - Looking for the mechanically viable explanations for the formation of joints sub-parallel with ground surface within the uppermost section of the rock mass.

  4. Recovery Act: An Integrated Experimental and Numerical Study: Developing a Reaction Transport Model that Couples Chemical Reactions of Mineral Dissolution/Precipitation with Spatial and Temporal Flow Variations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saar, Martin O. [ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Seyfried, Jr., William E. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Longmire, Ellen K. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2016-06-24

    A total of 12 publications and 23 abstracts were produced as a result of this study. In particular, the compilation of a thermodynamic database utilizing consistent, current thermodynamic data is a major step toward accurately modeling multi-phase fluid interactions with solids. Existing databases designed for aqueous fluids did not mesh well with existing solid phase databases. Addition of a second liquid phase (CO2) magnifies the inconsistencies between aqueous and solid thermodynamic databases. Overall, the combination of high temperature and pressure lab studies (task 1), using a purpose built apparatus, and solid characterization (task 2), using XRCT and more developed technologies, allowed observation of dissolution and precipitation processes under CO2 reservoir conditions. These observations were combined with results from PIV experiments on multi-phase fluids (task 3) in typical flow path geometries. The results of the tasks 1, 2, and 3 were compiled and integrated into numerical models utilizing Lattice-Boltzmann simulations (task 4) to realistically model the physical processes and were ultimately folded into TOUGH2 code for reservoir scale modeling (task 5). Compilation of the thermodynamic database assisted comparisons to PIV experiments (Task 3) and greatly improved Lattice Boltzmann (Task 4) and TOUGH2 simulations (Task 5). PIV (Task 3) and experimental apparatus (Task 1) have identified problem areas in TOUGHREACT code. Additional lab experiments and coding work has been integrated into an improved numerical modeling code.

  5. Spatial-temporal Variations and Source Apportionment of typical Heavy Metals in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China Based on Localized Air Pollutants Emission Inventory and WRF-CMAQ modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, H.; Liu, S.; Zhu, C.; Liu, H.; Wu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Abstract: Anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of air pollutants have caused worldwide concerns due to their adverse effects on human health and the ecosystem. By determining the best available emission factors for varied source categories, we established the comprehensive atmospheric emission inventories of hazardous air pollutants including 12 typical toxic heavy metals (Hg, As, Se, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Sb, Mn, Co, Cu, and Zn) from primary anthropogenic activities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China for the period of 2012 for the first time. The annual emissions of these pollutants were allocated at a high spatial resolution of 9km × 9km grid with ArcGIS methodology and surrogate indexes, such as regional population and gross domestic product (GDP). Notably, the total heavy metal emissions from this region represented about 10.9% of the Chinese national total emissions. The areas with high emissions of heavy metals were mainly concentrated in Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Handan and Tianjin. Further, WRF-CMAQ modeling system were applied to simulate the regional concentration of heavy metals to explore their spatial-temporal variations, and the source apportionment of these heavy metals in BTH region was performed using the Brute-Force method. Finally, integrated countermeasures were proposed to minimize the final air pollutants discharge on account of the current and future demand of energy-saving and pollution reduction in China. Keywords: heavy metals; particulate matter; emission inventory; CMAQ model; source apportionment Acknowledgment. This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (21377012 and 21177012) and the Trail Special Program of Research on the Cause and Control Technology of Air Pollution under the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2016YFC0201501).

  6. A Field-Scale Sensor Network Data Set for Monitoring and Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Variation of Soil Water Content in a Dryland Agricultural Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasch, C. K.; Brown, D. J.; Campbell, C. S.; Cobos, D. R.; Brooks, E. S.; Chahal, M.; Poggio, M.

    2017-12-01

    We describe a soil water content monitoring data set and auxiliary data collected at a 37 ha experimental no-till farm in the Northwestern United States. Water content measurements have been compiled hourly since 2007 by ECH2O-TE and 5TE sensors installed at 42 locations and five depths (0.3, 0.6, 0.9, 1.2, and 1.5 m, 210 sensors total) across the R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm, a Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research Site stationed on complex terrain in a Mediterranean climate. In addition to soil water content readings, the data set includes hourly and daily soil temperature readings, annual crop histories, a digital elevation model, Bt horizon maps, seasonal apparent electrical conductivity, soil texture, and soil bulk density. Meteorological records are also available for this location. We discuss the unique challenges of maintaining the network on an operating farm and demonstrate the nature and complexity of the soil water content data. This data set is accessible online through the National Agriculture Library, has been assigned a DOI, and will be maintained for the long term.

  7. Spatial Variation Scales of Rainfall Characteristics and Bromide Leaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendroth, O. O.; Vasquez, V.; Matocha, C.

    2010-12-01

    Amount and intensity of rainfall are known as important characteristics that affect the leaching of surface-applied agri-chemicals. Besides these, the effect of the time interval between a fertilizer, pesticide or tracer application and subsequent rainfall on solute leaching is not well understood. Moreover, little is known about the spatial representativity of the solute concentration based on a relatively small soil sample in field-scale transport studies. To know the spatial representativity of a solute concentration sample at a time is crucial for analyzing solute leaching behavior over time as well as over space. The objectives of this study were to identify the impact of rainfall intensity and amount as well as the application time delay on solute transport in a well-drained Maury silt loam soil. Moreover, an experimental design and protocol had to be developed that exhibited spatial variability structure and representativity of bromide concentration. For this purpose, the variation scale of each of the factors investigated was chosen differently to apply frequency domain statistics. The study was conducted in a Maury silt loam soil at the University of Kentucky, College of Agriculture Experimental Farm Spindletop. Along a 64-m transect, 32 plots each 2-m long and 4-m wide were established. The three different treatments were spatially laid out in sinusoidal patterns at three respective wavelengths. Two different rainfall amounts were applied in blocks of eight consecutive plots, hence a wavelength of 32 m. These two different rainfall amounts were applied at four rates, spatially distributed in two waves each of 16 m length. Individual plots received the irrigation at specific times after the tracer had been applied. Four application delay times were chosen, hence the wavelength for this treatment was 8 m. Bromide concentration was measured for soil samples that were taken with a percussion auger at every 50 cm distance along the 64-m-transect. Auger cores

  8. Spatial and temporal variations of thunderstorm activities over Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnadara, Upul

    2016-05-01

    Spatial and temporal variation of frequencies of thunderstorms over Sri Lanka using thunder day data is presented. A thunder day is simply a calendar day in which thunder is heard at least once at a given location. Two sets of data were collected and analyzed: annual totals for 10 climatological stations for a period of 50 years and monthly totals for 20 climatological stations for a period of 20 years. The average annual thunder days over Sri Lanka was found to be 76. Among the climatological stations considered, a high number of annual thunder days was recorded in Ratnapura (150 days/year), followed by Colombo (108 days/year) and Bandarawela (106 days/year). It appears that there are no widespread long-term increasing or decreasing trends in thunderstorm frequencies. However, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka which has over two million people shows an increasing trend of 0.8 thunder days per year. Although there is a high variability between stations reporting the number of thunder days, the overall pattern within a year is clear. Thunderstorm frequencies are high during two periods: March-May and September-November, which coincide with the first inter-monsoon and second inter-monsoon periods. Compared to the dry zone, the wet zone, especially the southwestern region, has high thunderstorm activity. There is a clear spatial difference in thunderstorm activities during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. During both these seasons, enhanced thunderstorm activities are reported on the leeward side of the mountain range. A slight reduction in the thunderstorm activities was found in the high elevation areas of the hill country compared to the surrounding areas. A lightning ground flash density map derived using annual thunder days is also presented.

  9. Spatial b-value variations in the Upper Rhine Graben

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, A.

    2012-04-01

    The natural seismicity of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is of growing interest for science and society, since the management of deep geothermal power plants requires local hazard assessment. The availability of new bulletin data and the combination of catalogues from Germany, France and Switzerland allows us to analyse the spatial changes in the magnitude-frequency distribution along the Graben axis in detail. We derive magnitude conversions between the different bulletins to obtain a uniform earthquake catalogue and decluster the data to extract fore- and aftershocks resulting in a Poissonian event distribution. Since the density of monitoring seismometers has improved over time, we determine several intervals of magnitude completeness. Generally, our catalogue is complete for magnitudes ML ≥ 2.0 since 1982 for the entire URG. To incorporate high magnitude events it is essential to use historic earthquake data. Those magnitudes are estimated by their macroseismic intensity distribution, and thus, they have a high uncertainty compared to instrumental magnitudes. We show that historic earthquake magnitudes are overestimated by 0.4 magnitude units in the URG. We apply a spatial window on the final dataset and move it along the Graben axis. For each set of 50 events we determine local variations of the magnitude frequency distribution after Gutenberg-Richter by a maximum likelihood estimation. The seismicity rate for ML ≥ 2.0 varies between 2 per year per 1000 km2 in the southern URG and 0.2 per year per 1000 km2 in the northern URG. The b-values vary between 0.8 and 1.4 with the highest values around Freiburg, showing a high variability of the magnitude distribution in the URG. Additionally, we examine the hypocentral depth distribution along the Graben, which results in a seismically active upper and lower crust in the southern and northern parts, separated by the central part with missing seismicity in the lower crust. According to the spatial distribution of b

  10. Spatial variation in atmospheric nitrogen deposition on low canopy vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verhagen, Rene; Diggelen, Rudy van

    2006-01-01

    Current knowledge about the spatial variation of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on a local scale is limited, especially for vegetation with a low canopy. We measured nitrogen deposition on artificial vegetation at variable distances of local nitrogen emitting sources in three nature reserves in the Netherlands, differing in the intensity of agricultural practices in the surroundings. In the nature reserve located in the most intensive agricultural region nitrogen deposition decreased with increasing distance to the local farms, until at a distance of 1500 m from the local nitrogen emitting sources the background level of 15 kg N ha -1 yr -1 was reached. No such trend was observed in the other two reserves. Interception was considerably lower than in woodlands and hence affected areas were larger. The results are discussed in relation to the prospects for the conservation or restoration of endangered vegetation types of nutrient-poor soil conditions. - Areas with low canopy vegetation are affected over much larger distances by nitrogen deposition than woodlands

  11. Disentangling the Effect of Local and Global Spatial Variation on a Mosquito-Borne Infection in a Neotropical Heterogeneous Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillet, María-Eugenia; Barrera, Roberto; Martínez, Juan-Eudes; Berti, Jesús; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2010-01-01

    Mosquito-borne pathogen transmission exhibits spatial-temporal variability caused by ecological interactions acting at different scales. We used local spatial statistics and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to determine the spatial pattern of malaria incidence and persistence in northeastern Venezuela. Seven to 11 hot spots of malaria transmission were detected by using local spatial statistics, although disease persistence was explained only for four of those hot spots. The GWR models greatly improved predictions of malaria risk compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models. Malaria incidence was largely explained by the proximity to and number of Anopheles aquasalis habitats nearby (1–3 km), and low-elevation terrains. Disease persistence was associated with greater human population density, lower elevations, and proximity to aquatic habitats. However, there was significant local spatial variation in the relationship between malaria and environmental variables. Spatial modeling improves the understanding of the causal factors operating at several scales in the transmission of malaria. PMID:20133991

  12. Spatial-Temporal Correlation Properties of the 3GPP Spatial Channel Model and the Kronecker MIMO Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Xiang Wang

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO systems is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal correlation properties of the underlying MIMO channels. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal correlation characteristics of the spatial channel model (SCM in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP and the Kronecker-based stochastic model (KBSM at three levels, namely, the cluster level, link level, and system level. The KBSM has both the spatial separability and spatial-temporal separability at all the three levels. The spatial-temporal separability is observed for the SCM only at the system level, but not at the cluster and link levels. The SCM shows the spatial separability at the link and system levels, but not at the cluster level since its spatial correlation is related to the joint distribution of the angle of arrival (AoA and angle of departure (AoD. The KBSM with the Gaussian-shaped power azimuth spectrum (PAS is found to fit best the 3GPP SCM in terms of the spatial correlations. Despite its simplicity and analytical tractability, the KBSM is restricted to model only the average spatial-temporal behavior of MIMO channels. The SCM provides more insights of the variations of different MIMO channel realizations, but the implementation complexity is relatively high.

  13. Modification of a variational objective analysis model for new equations for pressure gradient and vertical velocity in the lower troposphere and for spatial resolution and accuracy of satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achtemeier, G. L.

    1986-01-01

    Since late 1982 NASA has supported research to develop a numerical variational model for the diagnostic assimilation of conventional and space-based meteorological data. In order to analyze the model components, four variational models are defined dividing the problem naturally according to increasing complexity. The first of these variational models (MODEL I), the subject of this report, contains the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the integrated continuity equation, and the hydrostatic equation. This report summarizes the results of research (1) to improve the way the large nonmeteorological parts of the pressure gradient force are partitioned between the two terms of the pressure gradient force terms of the horizontal momentum equations, (2) to generalize the integrated continuity equation to account for variable pressure thickness over elevated terrain, and (3) to introduce horizontal variation in the precision modulus weights for the observations.

  14. Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

    2014-11-01

    Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  15. Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2010-01-28

    We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

  16. Spatial variation of AIA coronal Fourier power spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, J.; Mcateer, R. T. J.

    2015-12-01

    We describe a study of the spatial distribution of the properties of the Fourier power spectrum of time-series of AIA 171Å and 193Å data. The area studied includes examples of physically different components of the corona, such as coronal moss, a sunspot, quiet Sun and fan loop footpoints. We show that a large fraction of the power spectra are well modeled by a power spectrum that behaves like a power law f-n (n>0)at lower frequencies f, dropping to a constant value at higher frequencies. We also show that there are areas where the power spectra are better described by the above power spectrum model, plus a narrow band oscillatory feature, centered in the 3-5 minute oscillation range. These narrow-band spectral features are thought to be due to the propagation of oscillations from lower down in solar atmosphere to hotter. This allows us to produce maps of large areas of the corona showing where the propagation from one waveband to another does and does not occur. This is an important step in understanding wave propagation in different layers in the corona. We also show the 171Å and 193Å power spectrum power law indices are correlated, with 171Å power law indices in the range n = 1.8 to 2.8, and 193Å power law indices n = 2 to 3.5 approximately. Maps of the power law index show that different ranges of values of the power law indices occur in spatially contiguous parts of the corona, indicating that local spatial structure may play a role in defining the power law index value. Taken with our previous result from Ireland et al. (2015) that physically different parts of the corona have different mean values of the power law index, this new result strongly suggests that the same mechanism producing the observed power law power spectrum is operating everywhere across the corona. We discuss the nanoflare hypothesis as a possible explanation of these observations.

  17. Spatial variation in the fitness of divergent aposematic phenotypes of the poison frog, Dendrobates tinctorius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comeault, A A; Noonan, B P

    2011-06-01

    Aposematic species use brightly coloured signals to warn potential predators of their unpalatability. The function of these signals is largely believed to be frequency-dependent. All else being equal, stabilizing selection is expected to constrain the evolution of novel signals. However, despite the expected frequency-dependent function of aposematic signals, interpopulation variation in aposematic signals is ubiquitous in nature. Here, we used clay models of the poison frog Dendrobates tinctorius to test the nature of selection in regions containing varying frequencies of frogs possessing the local aposematic signal. Our findings support a role for stabilizing selection in maintaining the local signal type in a region of high signal frequency; however, we observe a lack of stabilizing selection at one site coincident with a decrease in the density of frogs possessing the local signal. Spatial variation in local aposematic signal frequencies may facilitate the evolution of novel signal types by altering the adaptive landscape for divergent aposematic phenotypes. Our results provide evidence for spatial variation in the selective regime acting on aposematic signals within an established aposematic system and highlight the need for further study of the nature of selection acting across different spatial scales in diverse aposematic systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  18. Persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere - spatial and temporal variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backe, Cecilia

    2001-05-01

    In this thesis I have studied the spatial and temporal variations of PCBs in the atmosphere and in precipitation in southern Sweden. Further, soil-air exchange processes of PCBs were investigated. Finally, the long-range transport of PCBs and DDT was studied in the Baltic Sea region and in a tropical vs. a temporal region. On the regional scale there were significant differences in PCB concentration in the atmosphere, in precipitation and in soil between nearby sampling-areas. Differences in PCB concentrations between areas probably originated from varying geographical and meteorological conditions that affected exchange processes between air and soil/vegetation surfaces. Temporal variations in PCB concentration in atmosphere and precipitation were also found. For PCBs in the air, a systematic pattern in the deviation from the yearly median value for the region was observed. Wind direction played an important role for PCB concentration in precipitation in coastal areas, while at the inland sites this variable seemed to have a minor influence. To examine the intensity of precipitation scavenging, the total washout ratios were calculated and the highest ratios were observed at the two sites where PCB concentration in the air was high. Further, high concentrations of PCB in precipitation correlated with a composition of highly chlorinated PCB congeners, as shown by principal component analysis. For most of the sites there was a significant negative relationship between PCB concentration and rain volume. Soil type and soil organic matter content was found to be important for the variations in PCB concentration between nearby areas. Highest concentrations were found at two sites with sandy soils, one with an extremely high organic carbon content. Soils with similar soil textures (i.e. sandy silt moraine) did not show any significant differences in PCB concentrations. PCB congener composition was shown to differ between sites, with site-specific congener patterns. No

  19. Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

  20. Genetic variance in processing speed drives variation in aging of spatial and memory abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkel, Deborah; Reynolds, Chandra A; McArdle, John J; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Pedersen, Nancy L

    2009-05-01

    Previous analyses have identified a genetic contribution to the correlation between declines with age in processing speed and higher cognitive abilities. The goal of the current analysis was to apply the biometric dual change score model to consider the possibility of temporal dynamics underlying the genetic covariance between aging trajectories for processing speed and cognitive abilities. Longitudinal twin data from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging, including up to 5 measurement occasions covering a 16-year period, were available from 806 participants ranging in age from 50 to 88 years at the 1st measurement wave. Factors were generated to tap 4 cognitive domains: verbal ability, spatial ability, memory, and processing speed. Model-fitting indicated that genetic variance for processing speed was a leading indicator of variation in age changes for spatial and memory ability, providing additional support for processing speed theories of cognitive aging. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved

  1. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  2. Variations in cardiovascular disease under-diagnosis in England: national cross-sectional spatial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walford Hannah

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is under-diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD in the English population, despite financial incentives to encourage general practices to register new cases. We compared the modelled (expected and diagnosed (observed prevalence of three cardiovascular conditions- coronary heart disease (CHD, hypertension and stroke- at local level, their geographical variation, and population and healthcare predictors which might influence diagnosis. Methods Cross-sectional observational study in all English local authorities (351 and general practices (8,372 comparing model-based expected prevalence with diagnosed prevalence on practice disease registers. Spatial analyses were used to identify geographic clusters and variation in regression relationships. Results A total of 9,682,176 patients were on practice CHD, stroke and transient ischaemic attack, and hypertension registers. There was wide spatial variation in observed: expected prevalence ratios for all three diseases, with less than five per cent of expected cases diagnosed in some areas. London and the surrounding area showed statistically significant discrepancies in observed: expected prevalence ratios, with observed prevalence much lower than the epidemiological models predicted. The addition of general practitioner supply as a variable yielded stronger regression results for all three conditions. Conclusions Despite almost universal access to free primary healthcare, there may be significant and highly variable under-diagnosis of CVD across England, which can be partially explained by persistent inequity in GP supply. Disease management studies should consider the possible impact of under-diagnosis on population health outcomes. Compared to classical regression modelling, spatial analytic techniques can provide additional information on risk factors for under-diagnosis, and can suggest where healthcare resources may be most needed.

  3. Spatial variation in near-ground radiation and low temperature. Interactions with forest vegetation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blennow, K.

    1997-10-01

    Low temperature has a large impact on the survival and distribution of plants. Interactive effects with high irradiance lead to cold-induced photo inhibition, which may impact on the establishment and growth of tree seedlings. In this thesis, novel approaches are applied for relating the spatial variability in low temperature and irradiance to photosynthetic performance and growth of tree seedlings, and for modelling the micro- and local-scale spatial variations in low temperature for heterogeneous terrain. The methodologies include the development and use of a digital image analysis system for hemispherical photographs, the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical methods, field data acquisition of meteorological elements, plant structure, growth and photosynthetic performance. Temperature and amounts of intercepted direct radiant energy for seedlings on clear days (IDRE) were related to chlorophyll a fluorescence, and the dry weight of seedlings. The combination of increased IDRE with reduced minimum temperatures resulted in persistent and strong photo inhibition as the season progressed, with likely implications for the establishment of tree seedlings at forest edges, and within shelter wood. For models of spatial distribution of low air temperature, the sky view factor was used to parameterize the radiative cooling, whilst drainage, ponding and stagnation of cold air, and thermal properties of the ground were all considered. The models hint at which scales and processes govern the development of spatial variations in low temperature for the construction of corresponding mechanistic models. The methodology is well suited for detecting areas that will be frost prone after clearing of forest and for comparing the magnitudes of impacts on low air temperature of forest management practices, such as shelter wood and soil preparation. The results can be used to formulate ground rules for use in practical forestry 141 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  4. Spatial variation of particle number concentration in school microscale environments and its impact on exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Farhad; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; Crilley, Leigh R; Laiman, Rusdin; Morawska, Lidia

    2013-05-21

    It has not yet been established whether the spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) within a microscale environment can have an effect on exposure estimation results. In general, the degree of spatial variation within microscale environments remains unclear, since previous studies have only focused on spatial variation within macroscale environments. The aims of this study were to determine the spatial variation of PNC within microscale school environments, in order to assess the importance of the number of monitoring sites on exposure estimation. Furthermore, this paper aims to identify which parameters have the largest influence on spatial variation as well as the relationship between those parameters and spatial variation. Air quality measurements were conducted for two consecutive weeks at each of the 25 schools across Brisbane, Australia. PNC was measured at three sites within the grounds of each school, along with the measurement of meteorological and several other air quality parameters. Traffic density was recorded for the busiest road adjacent to the school. Spatial variation at each school was quantified using coefficient of variation (CV). The portion of CV associated with instrument uncertainty was found to be 0.3, and, therefore, CV was corrected so that only noninstrument uncertainty was analyzed in the data. The median corrected CV (CVc) ranged from 0 to 0.35 across the schools, with 12 schools found to exhibit spatial variation. The study determined the number of required monitoring sites at schools with spatial variability and tested the deviation in exposure estimation arising from using only a single site. Nine schools required two measurement sites and three schools required three sites. Overall, the deviation in exposure estimation from using only one monitoring site was as much as 1 order of magnitude. The study also tested the association of spatial variation with wind speed/direction and traffic density, using partial

  5. How the spatial variation of tree roots affects slope stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Zhun; Stokes, A.; Jourdan, C.; Rey, H.; Courbaud, B.; Saint-André, L.

    2010-05-01

    It is now widely recognized that plant roots can reinforce soil against shallow mass movement. Although studies on the interactions between vegetation and slope stability have significantly augmented in recent years, a clear understanding of the spatial dynamics of root reinforcement (through additional cohesion by roots) in subalpine forest is still limited, especially with regard to the roles of different forest management strategies or ecological landscapes. The architecture of root systems is important for soil cohesion, but in reality it is not possible to measure the orientation of each root in a system. Therefore, knowledge on the effect of root orientation and anisotropy on root cohesion on the basis of in situ data is scanty. To determine the effect of root orientation in root cohesion models, we investigated root anisotropy in two mixed, mature, naturally regenerated, subalpine forests of Norway spruce (Picea abies), and Silver fir (Abies alba). Trees were clustered into islands, with open spaces between each group, resulting in strong mosaic heterogeneity within the forest stand. Trenches within and between clusters of trees were dug and root distribution was measured in three dimensions. We then simulated the influence of different values for a root anisotropy correction factor in forests with different ecological structures and soil depths. Using these data, we have carried out simulations of slope stability by calculating the slope factor of safety depending on stand structure. Results should enable us to better estimate the risk of shallow slope failure depending on the type of forest and species.

  6. Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2014-01-01

    The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate

  7. Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Herrando-Pérez

    Full Text Available The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools

  8. Window area and development drive spatial variation in bird-window collisions in an urban landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, Stephen B; Cosentino, Bradley J; McKay, Kelly J; Monson, Cathleen; Zuurdeeg, Walt; Blevins, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Collisions with windows are an important human-related threat to birds in urban landscapes. However, the proximate drivers of collisions are not well understood, and no study has examined spatial variation in mortality in an urban setting. We hypothesized that the number of fatalities at buildings varies with window area and habitat features that influence avian community structure. In 2010 we documented bird-window collisions (BWCs) and characterized avian community structure at 20 buildings in an urban landscape in northwestern Illinois, USA. For each building and season, we conducted 21 daily surveys for carcasses and nine point count surveys to estimate relative abundance, richness, and diversity. Our sampling design was informed by experimentally estimated carcass persistence times and detection probabilities. We used linear and generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how habitat features influenced community structure and how mortality was affected by window area and factors that correlated with community structure. The most-supported model was consistent for all community indices and included effects of season, development, and distance to vegetated lots. BWCs were related positively to window area and negatively to development. We documented mortalities for 16/72 (22%) species (34 total carcasses) recorded at buildings, and BWCs were greater for juveniles than adults. Based on the most-supported model of BWCs, the median number of annual predicted fatalities at study buildings was 3 (range = 0-52). These results suggest that patchily distributed environmental resources and levels of window area in buildings create spatial variation in BWCs within and among urban areas. Current mortality estimates place little emphasis on spatial variation, which precludes a fundamental understanding of the issue. To focus conservation efforts, we illustrate how knowledge of the structural and environmental factors that influence bird-window collisions can be used to

  9. Window area and development drive spatial variation in bird-window collisions in an urban landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen B Hager

    Full Text Available Collisions with windows are an important human-related threat to birds in urban landscapes. However, the proximate drivers of collisions are not well understood, and no study has examined spatial variation in mortality in an urban setting. We hypothesized that the number of fatalities at buildings varies with window area and habitat features that influence avian community structure. In 2010 we documented bird-window collisions (BWCs and characterized avian community structure at 20 buildings in an urban landscape in northwestern Illinois, USA. For each building and season, we conducted 21 daily surveys for carcasses and nine point count surveys to estimate relative abundance, richness, and diversity. Our sampling design was informed by experimentally estimated carcass persistence times and detection probabilities. We used linear and generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how habitat features influenced community structure and how mortality was affected by window area and factors that correlated with community structure. The most-supported model was consistent for all community indices and included effects of season, development, and distance to vegetated lots. BWCs were related positively to window area and negatively to development. We documented mortalities for 16/72 (22% species (34 total carcasses recorded at buildings, and BWCs were greater for juveniles than adults. Based on the most-supported model of BWCs, the median number of annual predicted fatalities at study buildings was 3 (range = 0-52. These results suggest that patchily distributed environmental resources and levels of window area in buildings create spatial variation in BWCs within and among urban areas. Current mortality estimates place little emphasis on spatial variation, which precludes a fundamental understanding of the issue. To focus conservation efforts, we illustrate how knowledge of the structural and environmental factors that influence bird

  10. Investigating of spatial variations of PM2.5 concentration in Suzhou using remote sensing imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shanzheng; Li, Bailiang

    2017-04-01

    Suzhou is located at the center of Yangtze Delta, suffering the air pollution from construction of mega city, industrial emission and traffic development. Particulate matter not greater than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is now considered as the most important pollutants in the air in East China. For Suzhou city, some studies on PM2.5 temporal variations based on ground measurements have been conducted. However, until now, there is limited remote sensing based research to investigate the spatial pattern of PM2.5 in Suzhou. MODIS is often used to evaluate the spatial variabiilty of air quality, however, due to its low spatial resolution (250m), we have adopted China launched HJ-1 satellite with 30 m resolution of CCD sensor. Following the solar radiation S6 model and dark object atmospheric correction method (Kaufman,et al., 2000), atmospheric optical depth (AOD) was estimated. A statistical relationship has been built up between AOD and PM2.5. We have retrieved the spatial distribution of PM2.5 across Suzhou city in the winter of 2014. Results indicate that PM2.5 has the highest value in Kunshan (East of Suzhou) and Changshu and Taicang (NE of Suzhou) due to the heavy-polluted industry, while in the island of the Taihu Lake, the PM2.5 is significantly lower than other places maybe because of high deposition rate of PM2.5 over water and forest surfaces. The spatial variation also shows that traffic has less contribution to the PM2.5 generation than the industry. We believe this study will be very useful to identify the causes of local PM2.5 pollution. The findings could also benefit local management and policy making.

  11. Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    Jan 27, 2016 ... Whereas variations on time scales of minutes to hours are due to solar oscillations and granulation, variations on longer time scales are driven by the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field. Here the most recent advances in modelling of solar irradiance variations on time scales longer than a day are ...

  12. Spatial and temporal variation in a mesic savanna fire regime ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Umfolozi Park, a mesic savanna area in South Africa. The study focuses at the landscape scale of tens of kilometres and at the medium term temporal scale of decades. Variation in fire regime was analysed in relation to variation in annual rainfall ...

  13. From spatial ecology to spatial epidemiology: modeling spatial distributions of different cancer types with principal coordinates of neighbor matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voutilainen, Ari; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri; Sherwood, Paula R

    2014-01-01

    Epidemiology and ecology share many fundamental research questions. Here we describe how principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), a method from spatial ecology, can be applied to spatial epidemiology. PCNM is based on geographical distances among sites and can be applied to any set of sites providing a good coverage of a study area. In the present study, PCNM eigenvectors corresponding to positive autocorrelation were used as explanatory variables in linear regressions to model incidences of eight most common cancer types in Finnish municipalities (n = 320). The dataset was provided by the Finnish Cancer Registry and it included altogether 615,839 cases between 1953 and 2010. PCNM resulted in 165 vectors with a positive eigenvalue. The first PCNM vector corresponded to the wavelength of hundreds of kilometers as it contrasted two main subareas so that municipalities located in southwestern Finland had the highest positive site scores and those located in midwestern Finland had the highest negative scores in that vector. Correspondingly, the 165(th) PCNM vector indicated variation mainly between the two small municipalities located in South Finland. The vectors explained 13 - 58% of the spatial variation in cancer incidences. The number of outliers having standardized residual > |3| was very low, one to six per model, and even lower, zero to two per model, according to Chauvenet's criterion. The spatial variation of prostate cancer was best captured (adjusted r (2) = 0.579). PCNM can act as a complementary method to causal modeling to achieve a better understanding of the spatial structure of both the response and explanatory variables, and to assess the spatial importance of unmeasured explanatory factors. PCNM vectors can be used as proxies for demographics and causative agents to deal with autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and confounding variables. PCNM may help to extend spatial epidemiology to areas with limited availability of

  14. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Trace Species in Titan's Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coustenis, Athena; Jennings, D.; Nixon, C.; Achterberg, R.; Vinatier, S.; Bjoraker, G.; Teanby, N.; Romani, P.; Carlson, R.; Flasar, F.

    2008-09-01

    Four years into the Cassini-Huygens mission, we present results obtained on Titan's chemical composition by analyzing CIRS data in the far-and mid-IR region. With respect to previous publications (Coustenis et al., 2007, Teanby et al., 2006, 2008; Vinatier et al., 2007) we improved our analysis by exploiting a considerably larger number of nadir spectra, in particular at high resolution (0.53 cm-1). The more complete coverage of Titan's disk, combined with the larger number of spectra at high resolution, allows for the inference of more precise abundances for the trace gases and for a more adequate definition of meridional variations, in particular in the northern regions. The retrievals of the meridional variations of the trace constituents show an enhancement for some of them towards the North pole. Molecules showing a significant enhancement at northern latitudes are the nitriles (HC3N, HCN) and the complex hydrocarbons (C4H2, C3H4). To a lesser degree, acetylene and ethane also exhibit abundance increases by factors of 1.5-2. The results are tied to predictions by dynamical-photochemical models (Rannou et al., 2005; Lavvas et al., 2008a,b and references therein). The D/H ratio on Titan was also determined from the CH3D band at 8.6 micron and the C2HD band at 678 cm-1 (Coustenis et al., 2008). We compare our results with previous inferences from earlier CIRS and Voyager1/IRIS data and from ISO data taken in 1997. References Coustenis, A., et al., 2007, Icarus 189, 35-62 ; 2008 : DOI : 10.1007/s10686-008-9103-z. Lavvas, P. P., et al., 2008a. Plan. Space Sci. 56, 27-66 ; 2008b. Plan. Space Sci. 56, 67-99. Rannou, P., et al., 2005. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2194-2198. Teanby, N. A., et al., 2006. Icarus 181, 243-255; 2008. Icarus 193, 595-611. Vinatier, S., et al., 2007. Icarus 188, 120-138.

  15. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Embodied Carbon Emission in Global Trade Flows: 41 Economies and 35 Sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Jing Tian; Hua Liao; Ce Wang

    2014-01-01

    The spatial-temporal variations of embodied carbon emissions in international trade at global scope are still unclear. This paper studies the variations of outflows and inflows of embodied carbon emissions at 35-disaggregated sectors level of 41 countries and regions, and an integrated world input-output model is employed. It also examines what would happen if there were not international trade flows in China, USA and Finland, the representatives of three different levels of the global balanc...

  16. Spatial variation of corn canopy temperature as dependent upon soil texture and crop rooting characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, B. J.

    1983-01-01

    A soil plant atmosphere model for corn (Zea mays L.) together with the scaling theory for soil hydraulic heterogeneity are used to study the sensitivity of spatial variation of canopy temperature to field averaged soil texture and crop rooting characteristics. The soil plant atmosphere model explicitly solves a continuity equation for water flux resulting from root water uptake, changes in plant water storage and transpirational flux. Dynamical equations for root zone soil water potential and the plant water storage models the progressive drying of soil, and day time dehydration and night time hydration of the crop. The statistic of scaling parameter which describes the spatial variation of soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential is assumed to be independent of soil texture class. The field averaged soil hydraulic characteristics are chosen to be representative of loamy sand and clay loam soils. Two rooting characteristics are chosen, one shallow and the other deep rooted. The simulation shows that the range of canopy temperatures in the clayey soil is less than 1K, but for the sandy soil the range is about 2.5 and 5.0 K, respectively, for the shallow and deep rooted crops.

  17. Spatial Variation in Anaerobic Microbial Communities in Wetland Margin Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, H.; Kannenberg, S.; Ludwig, S.; Nelson, L. C.; Spawn, S.; Porterfield, J.; Schade, J. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of precipitation and drought events, which may result in substantial temporal variation in the size of wetlands. Wetlands are the world's largest natural emitter of methane, a greenhouse gas that is 20 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Changes in the dynamics of wetland size may lead to changes in the extent and timing of inundation of soils in ephemeral margins, which is likely to influence microbes that rely on anoxic conditions. The impact on process rates may depend on the structure of the community of microbes present in the soil, however, the link between microbial structure and patterns in process rates in soils is not well understood. Our goal was to use molecular techniques to compare microorganism communities in two wetlands that differ in the extent and duration of inundation of marginal soils to assess how these communities may change with changes in climate, and the potential consequences for methane production. This will allow us to examine how community composition changes with soil conditions such as moisture content, frequency of drought and abundance of available carbon. The main focus of this project was to determine the presence or absence of acetoclastic (AC) and hydrogenotrophic (HT) methanogens. AC methanogens use acetate as their main substrate, while HT methanogens use Hydrogen and Carbon dioxide. The relative proportion of these pathways depends on soil conditions, such as competition with other anaerobic microbes and the amount of labile carbon, and spatial patterns in the presence of each can give insight into the soil conditions of a wetland site. We sampled soil from three different wetland ponds of varying permanence in the St Olaf Natural Lands in Northfield, Minnesota, and extracted DNA from these soil samples with a MoBio PowerSoil DNA Isolation Kit. With PCR and seven different primer sets, we tested the extracted DNA for the presence of

  18. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  19. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  20. Spatial variations of P wave attenuation in the mantle beneath North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Yong Keun; Ritsema, Jeroen; Goes, Saskia

    2009-06-01

    We estimate the spatial variation of the seismic parameter t* using teleseismic (epicentral distance = 30°-85°) P wave spectra of about 200 deep (focal depths > 200 km) earthquakes recorded by 378 broadband seismometers in the United States and Canada. Relative P wave spectral ratios up to 1 Hz for about 63,000 station pairs with high signal-to-noise ratio and impulsive P waveforms are inverted for t*P by least squares inversion. The continental-scale t*P pattern correlates to the age of geological terrains and the seismic, heat flow, gravity, and magnetic variations across North America. Predominantly low values of t*P are obtained in stable central North America (SNA), and high t*P values are obtained for stations in the tectonically active western part of the continent (TNA). This variation is similar to that observed previously in short-period amplitude anomalies, spectral ratio variations, and ScS reverberations. On average, we resolve a contrast in t*P between SNA and TNA of about 0.2 s. We resolve regional variations in t*P, which correlate with tectonics. Relatively low t*P is associated with currently active subduction below Alaska. Relatively high t*P is found in SNA below the Appalachians and the Gulf Coast. The consistency between t*P and tectonics suggests that the observed variations in t*P are, on the scale of around 200-500 km, predominantly due to intrinsic attenuation. The similar patterns in t*P and predicted values for a recent global attenuation model confirm this further. The compatibility with the t*P computed for attenuation estimated via a thermal interpretation of shear wave velocity anomalies illustrates that variations in seismic velocity are predominantly due to physical effects with a strong attenuation signature, most likely temperature or a combination of temperature and water content.

  1. Attribution of spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial methane flux over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X. F.; Tian, H. Q.; Zhang, C.; Liu, M. L.; Ren, W.; Chen, G. S.; Lu, C. Q.; Bruhwiler, L.

    2010-11-01

    The attribution of spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial methane (CH4) flux is essential for assessing and mitigating CH4 emission from terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we used a process-based model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), in conjunction with spatial data of six major environmental factors to attribute the spatial and temporal variations in the terrestrial methane (CH4) flux over North America from 1979 to 2008 to six individual driving factors and their interaction. Over the past three decades, our simulations indicate that global change factors accumulatively contributed 23.51 ± 9.61 T g CH4-C (1 Tg = 1012 g) emission over North America, among which ozone (O3) pollution led to a reduced CH4 emission by 2.30 ± 0.49 T g CH4-C. All other factors including climate variability, nitrogen (N) deposition, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), N fertilizer application, and land conversion enhanced terrestrial CH4 emissions by 19.80 ± 12.42 T g CH4-C, 0.09 ± 0.02 T g CH4-C, 6.80 ± 0.86 T g CH4-C, 0.01 ± 0.001 T g CH4-C, and 3.95 ± 0.38 T g CH4-C, respectively, and interaction between/among these global change factors led to a decline of CH4 emission by 4.84 ± 7.74 T g CH4-C. Climate variability and O3 pollution suppressed, while other factors stimulated CH4 emission over the USA; climate variability significantly enhanced, while all the other factors exerted minor effects, positive or negative, on CH4 emission in Canada; Mexico functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 with a major contribution from climate change. Climatic variability dominated the inter-annual variations in terrestrial CH4 flux at both continental and country levels. Precipitation played an important role in the climate-induced changes in terrestrial CH4 flux at both continental and country-levels. The relative importance of each environmental factor in determining the magnitude of CH4 flux showed substantially spatial variation across North America. This

  2. Influence of spatial variations of the geoelectric field on geomagnetically induced currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viljanen Ari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The geoelectric field driving geomagnetically induced currents (GIC has complex spatial variations. It follows that different patterns of the field vectors in a given area having the same regional mean can produce very different GIC. In this study, we consider a few power grid models and calculate GIC due to a modelled geoelectric field with a regional mean magnitude of 1 V/km. Altogether 8035 snapshots of the electric field are included. We also assume two different ground conductivity models, of which the simpler one consists of two layers across the whole region, and another model has four different two-layer blocks. As a measure of GIC, we use the sum of currents at all substations of the power grid. We also consider the distribution of GIC at a single site. For a given grid, differences between the two ground conductivity models are small. When comparing different power grid models, the sum of GIC varies relatively more for a grid with a small number of substations and transmission lines. When the area and the number of substations increase, the relative difference between the smallest and largest GIC sum decreases. In all cases, assuming a spatially uniform electric field leads to a reasonable estimation of the GIC magnitudes, but it does not produce the largest GIC sum. For a single substation, there is a large variety of GIC values due to different electric field configurations.

  3. Spatial Allocator for air quality modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Spatial Allocator is a set of tools that helps users manipulate and generate data files related to emissions and air quality modeling without requiring the use of a commercial Geographic Information System.

  4. Titan's Stratospheric chemistry: Spatial And Temporal Variations Of Trace Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coustenis, A.; Jennings, D. E.; Nixon, C. A.; Vinatier, S.; Bjoraker, G.; Lavvas, P.; Teanby, N.; Lellouch, E.; Flasar, M.; Simon-Miller, A.

    2009-04-01

    Four years into the Cassini-Huygens mission, we present results obtained on Titan's chemical composition by analyzing CIRS data in the far-and mid-IR region. With respect to previous publications (Flasar et al., 2005; Coustenis et al., 2007, 2008b; Teanby et al., 2006, 2008; Vinatier et al., 2007) we improved our analysis by exploiting a considerably larger number of nadir spectra, in particular at high resolution (0.53 cm-1). The more complete coverage of Titan's disk, combined with the larger number of spectra at high resolution, allows for the inference of more precise abundances for the trace gases and for a more adequate definition of meridional variations, in particular in the northern regions. The retrievals of the meridional variations of the trace constituents show an enhancement for some of them towards the North pole. Molecules showing a significant enhancement at northern latitudes are the nitriles (HC3N, HCN) and the complex hydrocarbons (C4H2, C3H4). To a lesser degree, acetylene and ethane also exhibit abundance increases by factors of 1.5-2. Isotopic ratios in carbon, nitrogen and oxygen have been determined (Jennings et al., 2008, Nixon et al., 2008a,b). The D/H ratio on Titan was also determined from the CH3D band at 8.6 micron and the C2HD band at 678 cm-1 (Coustenis et al., 2008a). We compare our results with previous inferences from earlier CIRS and Voyager1/IRIS data and from ISO data taken in 1997. The results are tied to predictions by dynamical-photochemical models (Rannou et al., 2005; Lavvas et al., 2008a,b, Crespin et al., 2008 and references therein). Finally, we will present the case for future observations from space (e.g. with the TSSM mission, http://www.lesia.obspm.fr/cosmicvision/tssm/tssm-public/ which will comprise instruments such as a Thermal Infrared Spectrometer (TIRS) or a SubMillimeter Sounder (SMS)) or from the ground, which could improve our current understanding of Titan's neutral chemistry. References 1. Coustenis, A

  5. Implication of Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Fine-Structure Constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Sze-Shiang; Yan, Mu-Lin

    2016-02-01

    Temporal and spatial variations of fine-structure constant α ≡ e2/hbar c in cosmology have been reported in analysis of combination Keck and VLT data. This paper studies the variations based on consideration of basic spacetime symmetry in physics. Both laboratory α 0 and distant α z are deduced from relativistic spectrum equations of atoms (e.g., hydrogen atom) defined in inertial reference systems. When Einstein's Λ≠0, the metric of local inertial reference systems in SM of cosmology is Beltrami metric instead of Minkowski, and the basic spacetime symmetry has to be de Sitter (dS) group. The corresponding special relativity (SR) is dS-SR. A model based on dS-SR is suggested. Comparing the predictions on α-varying with the data, the parameters are determined. The best-fit dipole mode in α's spatial varying is reproduced by this dS-SR model. α-varyings in whole sky are also studied. The results are generally in agreement with the estimations of observations. The main conclusion is that the phenomenon of α-varying cosmologically with dipole mode dominating is due to the de Sitter (or anti de Sitter) spacetime symmetry with a Minkowski point in an extended special relativity called de Sitter invariant special relativity (dS-SR) developed by Dirac-Inönü-Wigner-Gürsey-Lee-Lu-Zou-Guo.

  6. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...... the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...

  7. Spatial variation in school performance, a local analysis of socio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Setup

    Poor pass rates of matric learners at secondary schools in South Africa has been a concern for quite some time. Despite .... methods for spatial data within GIS leads to an increase in the potential for gaining new insight. (Fotheringham et al., 2001, ..... New South Wales Department of Education and. Training. Jaggia, S and ...

  8. Spatial variation of the aftershock activity across the Kachchh Rift ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We characterized aftershock behaviour in terms of -value, -value, spatial fractal dimension (s), and slip ratio (ratio of the slip that occurred on the primary fault and that of the total slip). The estimated -value is 1.05, which indicates that the earthquake occurred due to active tectonics in the region. The three dimensional ...

  9. Temporal and Spatial Variation of Meteor Flux in Radio Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Charles; Veljkovicl, Kristina

    2017-08-01

    The variation of hourly detection counts from almost 350 radio meteor detection stations is analysed to determine the effect of year, time of day, and latitude on observations, as well as discussions of annual and monthly variations. Results indicate a significant increase in hourly detection counts in 2009-2010, supporting previous hypotheses of correlation between radio meteor detection rates and solar activity. Annual increases in meteor rates during summer months are noted, with no clear explanation. Monthly variations are not significant. The effect of latitude on detection counts is significant for years 2005-2016. For 12 of 17 considered years, night-time detection counts are greater than day-time counts, likely due to changes in ionospheric structure at night.

  10. Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

    2017-09-01

    There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across

  11. Spatial variation of natural radiation and childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, Sylvia; Monfort, Christine; Green, Martyn; Muirhead, Colin; Draper, Gerald

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an analysis of the geographical variation of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain over a 15 year period in relation to natural radiation (gamma and radon). Data at the level of the 459 district level local authorities in England, Wales and regional districts in Scotland are analysed in two complementary ways: first, by Poisson regressions with the inclusion of environmental covariates and a smooth spatial structure; secondly, by a hierarchical Bayesian model in which extra-Poisson variability is modelled explicitly in terms of spatial and non-spatial components. From this analysis, we deduce a strong indication that a main part of the variability is accounted for by a local neighbourhood 'clustering' structure. This structure is furthermore relatively stable over the 15 year period for the lymphocytic leukaemias which make up the majority of observed cases. We found no evidence of a positive association of childhood leukaemia incidence with outdoor or indoor gamma radiation levels. There is no consistent evidence of any association with radon levels. Indeed, in the Poisson regressions, a significant positive association was only observed for one 5-year period, a result which is not compatible with a stable environmental effect. Moreover, this positive association became clearly non-significant when over-dispersion relative to the Poisson distribution was taken into account. (author)

  12. Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

    2018-01-01

    Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

  13. Spatial variation of volatile organic compounds and carbon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREG

    2013-05-12

    May 12, 2013 ... carbon monoxide in Blantyre City, Malawi. Mapoma, H. W. T.1*, Zimba J. J. 2, Utembe ... This study assessed variations of ambient volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide (CO) levels in Blantyre City, Malawi. .... the ground to capture maximum emissions from both vehicles and industrial sources.

  14. Spatial variation of Melaleuca cajuputi powell essential oils | Hanif ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cajuputi essential oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is extracted from the leaves of Melaleuca cajuputi Powell. This study identify the variation of Melaleuca cajuputi essential oil fingerprinting based on the essential oil. The leaves were collected from 10 different sites in Terengganu undergoes hydro distillation and detailed ...

  15. The spatial and temporal variations of nematofauna of recovering ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The spatio-temporal variations in physical sediment characteristics and nematode community assemblages were investigated and compared between a natural, a 10-year reforested, and a degraded Rhizophora mucronata mangrove ecosystem in Gazi Bay, Kenya. PCA showed a clear separation of the degraded site from ...

  16. Flood Prediction using Rainfall – Runoff Spatial Variation: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High intensity rainfall and associated floods have become frequent in most cities and urban areas in recent years, within the lower reaches of the Niger Delta. The magnitude and time variation of rainfall and associated runoff has proved more difficult to predict. This is mainly as a result of the inherent stochastic nature of ...

  17. Determining wetland spatial extent and seasonal variations of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study, done in the Witbank Dam Catchment in Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, explores a remote-sensing technique to delineate wetland extent and assesses the seasonal variations of the inundated area. The objective was to monitor the spatio-temporal changes of wetlands over time through remote sensing ...

  18. Satellite-based studies of maize yield spatial variations and their causes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Maize production in China has been expanding significantly in the past two decades, but yield has become relatively stagnant in the past few years, and needs to be improved to meet increasing demand. Multiple studies found that the gap between potential and actual yield of maize is as large as 40% to 60% of yield potential. Although a few major causes of yield gap have been qualitatively identified with surveys, there has not been spatial analysis aimed at quantifying relative importance of specific biophysical and socio-economic causes, information which would be useful for targeting interventions. This study analyzes the causes of yield variation at field and village level in Quzhou county of North China Plain (NCP). We combine remote sensing and crop modeling to estimate yields in 2009-2012, and identify fields that are consistently high or low yielding. To establish the relationship between yield and potential factors, we gather data on those factors through a household survey. We select targeted survey fields such that not only both extremes of yield distribution but also all soil texture categories in the county is covered. Our survey assesses management and biophysical factors as well as social factors such as farmers' access to agronomic knowledge, which is approximated by distance to the closest demonstration plot or 'Science and technology backyard'. Our survey covers 10 townships, 53 villages and 180 fields. Three to ten farmers are surveyed depending on the amount of variation present among sub pixels of each field. According to survey results, we extract the amount of variation within as well as between villages and or soil type. The higher within village or within field variation, the higher importance of management factors. Factors such as soil type and access to knowledge are more represented by between village variation. Through regression and analysis of variance, we gain more quantitative and thorough understanding of causes to yield variation at

  19. Spatial variations in nitrogen dioxide concentrations in urban Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vintar Mally Katja

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2 concentrations are regularly measured at only two monitoring stations in the city centre of Ljubljana, and such scanty data are inadequate for drawing conclusions about spatial patterns of pollution within the city, or to decide on effective measures to further improve air quality. In order to determine the spatial distribution of NO2 concentrations in different types of urban space in Ljubljana, two measuring campaigns throughout the city were carried out, during the summer of 2013 and during the winter of 2014. The main source of NO2 in Ljubljana is road transport. Accordingly, three types of urban space have been identified (urban background, open space along roads, and street canyon, and their NO2 pollution level was measured using Palmes diffusive samplers at a total of 108 measuring spots. This article analyses the results of both measuring campaigns and compares the pollution levels of different types of urban space.

  20. Diurnal and spatial variation of remotely sensed precipitation over Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, D.; Iyengar, G. R.; Mitra, A. K.

    2016-05-01

    The climate of India is dominated by monsoon systems. The remotely sensed estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to examine the most of the Indian monsoon systems. This study deals with the diurnal and spatial variation of precipitation over the Indian region. The precipitation data from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), blended from a variety of sources (including rain gauges over land) and having both daily and 3- hourly output are being used for evaluation of the Numerical Weather Prediction models Basu (2007) of National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. The precipitation obtained from TRMM 3B42 for this study period has a spatial resolution of 0.25º X 0.25º latitude-longitude. The 3-hourly averaged values are centered at the middle of each 3 hr period. South Asian regions are dominated by seasonal climatic fluctuations and the major rainy season is the southwest monsoon season. In addition to the seasonal fluctuations, Indian summer monsoon is modulated by diurnal fluctuations; nature of diurnal variation of rainfall varies from place to place and depends upon the locations, topography of the region. Diurnal variation of rain-rate, frequency of rain, conditional rain rate, and maximum and minimum rain occurrence is studied. Over Indian tropical region, maximum rainfall over land and Bay of Bengal regions is observed during the late-afternoon and early-morning period, respectively. Drizzle or less rainfall occur frequently in the morning over most land areas, whereas convective activity occurs during the afternoon. The model predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ~3h) and the amplitude is too strong over Indian land region and tropical ocean region.

  1. Spatial variation in tuber depletion by swans explained by differences in net intake rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; Langevoord, O; Bevan, RM; Engelaar, KR; Klaassen, M; Mulder, RJW

    We tested whether the spatial variation in resource depletion by Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) foraging on belowground tubers of sage pondweed (Potnmogeton pectinatus) was caused by differences in net energy intake rates. The variation in giving up densities within the confines of one lake was

  2. Temporal and spatial variation of nitrogen transformations in a coniferous soil.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laverman, A.M.; Zoomer, H.R.; van Verseveld, H.W.; Verhoef, H.A.

    2000-01-01

    Forest soils show a great degree of temporal and spatial variation of nitrogen mineralization. The aim of the present study was to explain temporal variation in nitrate leaching from a nitrogen-saturated coniferous forest soil by potential nitrification, mineralization rates and nitrate uptake by

  3. Temporal and spatial variation of nitrogen transformations in a coniferous forest soils.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laverman, A.M.; Zoomer, H.R.; van Verseveld, H.W.; Verhoef, H.A.

    2000-01-01

    Forest soils show a great degree of temporal and spatial variation of nitrogen mineralization. The aim of the present study was to explain temporal variation in nitrate leaching from a nitrogen-saturated coniferous forest soil by potential nitrification, mineralization rates and nitrate uptake by

  4. Spatial and seasonal variations of the contamination within water body of the Grand Canal, China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, X.L.; Han, Jingyi; Xu, L.G.; Zhang, Q.

    2010-01-01

    To delineate the character of contaminations in the Grand Canal, China, a three-year study (2004-2006) was conducted to investigate variations the water quality in the canal. Results showed that the variation of water quality within the Grand Canal was of there is remarkable spatial and seasonal

  5. Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

    1993-01-01

    We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

  6. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  7. Pollinator communities in strawberry crops - variation at multiple spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrenfeldt, E J; Klatt, B K; Arildsen, J; Trandem, N; Andersson, G K S; Tscharntke, T; Smith, H G; Sigsgaard, L

    2015-08-01

    Predicting potential pollination services of wild bees in crops requires knowledge of their spatial distribution within fields. Field margins can serve as nesting and foraging habitats for wild bees and can be a source of pollinators. Regional differences in pollinator community composition may affect this spill-over of bees. We studied how regional and local differences affect the spatial distribution of wild bee species richness, activity-density and body size in crop fields. We sampled bees both from the field centre and at two different types of semi-natural field margins, grass strips and hedges, in 12 strawberry fields. The fields were distributed over four regions in Northern Europe, representing an almost 1100 km long north-south gradient. Even over this gradient, daytime temperatures during sampling did not differ significantly between regions and did therefore probably not impact bee activity. Bee species richness was higher in field margins compared with field centres independent of field size. However, there was no difference between centre and margin in body-size or activity-density. In contrast, bee activity-density increased towards the southern regions, whereas the mean body size increased towards the north. In conclusion, our study revealed a general pattern across European regions of bee diversity, but not activity-density, declining towards the field interior which suggests that the benefits of functional diversity of pollinators may be difficult to achieve through spill-over effects from margins to crop. We also identified dissimilar regional patterns in bee diversity and activity-density, which should be taken into account in conservation management.

  8. Modeling Per Capita State Health Expenditure Variat...

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Modeling Per Capita State Health Expenditure Variation State-Level Characteristics Matter, published in Volume 3, Issue 4, of the Medicare and Medicaid Research...

  9. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2014-11-10

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  10. Spatial variation in adult sex ratio across multiple scales in the invasive golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meng; Fang, Miao; Yang, Yexin; Dick, Jaimie T A; Song, Hongmei; Luo, Du; Mu, Xidong; Gu, Dangen; Luo, Jianren; Hu, Yinchang

    2016-04-01

    Adult sex ratio (ASR) has critical effects on behavior and life history and has implications for population demography, including the invasiveness of introduced species. ASR exhibits immense variation in nature, yet the scale dependence of this variation is rarely analyzed. In this study, using the generalized multilevel models, we investigated the variation in ASR across multiple nested spatial scales and analyzed the underlying causes for an invasive species, the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata. We partitioned the variance in ASR to describe the variations at different scales and then included the explanatory variables at the individual and group levels to analyze the potential causes driving the variation in ASR. We firstly determined there is a significant female-biased ASR for this species when accounting for the spatial and temporal autocorrelations of sampling. We found that, counter to nearly equal distributed variation at plot, habitat and region levels, ASR showed little variation at the town level. Temperature and precipitation at the region level were significantly positively associated with ASR, whereas the individual weight, the density characteristic, and sampling time were not significant factors influencing ASR. Our study suggests that offspring sex ratio of this species may shape the general pattern of ASR in the population level while the environmental variables at the region level translate the unbiased offspring sex ratio to the female-biased ASR. Future research should consider the implications of climate warming on the female-biased ASR of this invasive species and thus on invasion pattern.

  11. Spatial and temporal variations of manganese concentrations in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Bouchard, Maryse F

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the variability of manganese concentrations in drinking water (daily, seasonal, spatial) for eight communities who participated in an epidemiological study on neurotoxic effects associated with exposure to manganese in drinking water. We also assessed the performance of residential point-of-use and point-of-entry devices (POE) for reducing manganese concentrations in water. While the total Mn concentrations measured during this study were highly variable depending on the location (manganese concentration for 4 out of 5 sampling locations. The efficiency of reverse osmosis and ion exchange for total Mn removal was consistently high while activated carbon provided variable results. The four POE greensand filters investigated all increased (29 to 199%) manganese concentration, indicating deficient operation and/or maintenance practices. Manganese concentrations in the distribution system were equal or lower than at the inlet, indicating that sampling at the inlet of the distribution system is conservative. The decline in total Mn concentration was linked to higher water residence time in the distribution system.

  12. Spatial variation of phytoplankton community structure in Daya Bay, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhao-Yu; Wang, You-Shao; Cheng, Hao; Zhang, Jian-Dong; Fei, Jiao

    2015-10-01

    Daya Bay is one of the largest and most important gulfs in the southern coast of China, in the northern part of the South China Sea. The phylogenetic diversity and spatial distribution of phytoplankton from the Daya Bay surface water and the relationship with the in situ water environment were investigated by the clone library of the large subunit of ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase (rbcL) gene. The dominant species of phytoplankton were diatoms and eustigmatophytes, which accounted for 81.9 % of all the clones of the rbcL genes. Prymnesiophytes were widely spread and wide varieties lived in Daya Bay, whereas the quantity was limited. The community structure of phytoplankton was shaped by pH and salinity and the concentration of silicate, phosphorus and nitrite. The phytoplankton biomass was significantly positively affected by phosphorus and nitrite but negatively by salinity and pH. Therefore, the phytoplankton distribution and biomass from Daya Bay were doubly affected by anthropic activities and natural factors.

  13. Spatial and temporal variation of body size among early Homo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Will, Manuel; Stock, Jay T

    2015-05-01

    The estimation of body size among the earliest members of the genus Homo (2.4-1.5Myr [millions of years ago]) is central to interpretations of their biology. It is widely accepted that Homo ergaster possessed increased body size compared with Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis, and that this may have been a factor involved with the dispersal of Homo out of Africa. The study of taxonomic differences in body size, however, is problematic. Postcranial remains are rarely associated with craniodental fossils, and taxonomic attributions frequently rest upon the size of skeletal elements. Previous body size estimates have been based upon well-preserved specimens with a more reliable species assessment. Since these samples are small (n Koobi Fora after 1.7Myr, indicating regional size variation. The significant body size differences between specimens from Koobi Fora and Olduvai support the cranial evidence for at least two co-existing morphotypes in the Early Pleistocene of eastern Africa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Effect of assessment scale on spatial and temporal variations in CH4, C02, and N20 fluxes in a forested wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li; Ge Sun; Devendra Amatya

    2011-01-01

    Emissions of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from a forested watershed (160 ha) in South Carolina, USA, were estimated with a spatially explicit watershed-scale modeling framework that utilizes the spatial variations in physical and biogeochemical characteristics across watersheds. The target watershed (WS80) consisting of wetland (23%) and...

  15. Using Spatial Gradients to Model Localization Phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.J.Bammann; D.Mosher; D.A.Hughes; N.R.Moody; P.R.Dawson

    1999-07-01

    We present the final report on a Laboratory-Directed Research and Development project, Using Spatial Gradients to Model Localization Phenomena, performed during the fiscal years 1996 through 1998. The project focused on including spatial gradients in the temporal evolution equations of the state variables that describe hardening in metal plasticity models. The motivation was to investigate the numerical aspects associated with post-bifurcation mesh dependent finite element solutions in problems involving damage or crack propagation as well as problems in which strain Localizations occur. The addition of the spatial gradients introduces a mathematical length scale that eliminates the mesh dependency of the solution. In addition, new experimental techniques were developed to identify the physical mechanism associated with the numerical length scale.

  16. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  17. Variation in spatial language and cognition: exploring visuo-spatial thinking and speaking cross-linguistically.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soroli, Efstathia

    2012-08-01

    Languages differ strikingly in how they encode spatial information. This variability is realized with spatial semantic elements mapped across languages in very different ways onto lexical/syntactic structures. For example, satellite-framed languages (e.g., English) express MANNER: in the verb and PATH: in satellites, while verb-framed languages (e.g., French) lexicalize PATH: in the verb, leaving MANNER: implicit or peripheral. Some languages are harder to classify into these categories, rather presenting equipollently framed systems, such as Chinese (serial-verb constructions) or Greek (parallel verb- and satellite-framed structures in equally frequent contexts). Such properties seem to have implications not only on the formulation/articulation levels, but also on the conceptualization level, thereby reviving questions concerning the language-thought interface. The present study investigates the relative impact of language-independent and language-specific factors on spatial representations across three typologically different languages (English-French-Greek) combining a variety of complementary tasks (production, non-verbal, and verbal categorization). The findings show that typological properties of languages can have an impact on both linguistic and non-linguistic organization of spatial information, open new perspectives for the investigation of conceptualization, and contribute more generally to the debate concerning the universal and language-specific dimensions of cognition.

  18. Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF) was developed by Dr. Scott Havens at the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in Boise, ID. SMRF was designed to increase the flexibility of taking measured weather data and distributing the point measurements across a watershed. SMRF was developed...

  19. Testing spatial heterogeneity with stock assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jardim, Ernesto; Eero, Margit; Silva, Alexandra

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology that combines meta-population theory and stock assessment models to gain insights about spatial heterogeneity of the meta-population in an operational time frame. The methodology was tested with stochastic simulations for different degrees of connectivity betwee...

  20. Spatial Variation of Soil Respiration in a Cropland under Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Rotation in the North China Plain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni Huang

    Full Text Available Spatial variation of soil respiration (Rs in cropland ecosystems must be assessed to evaluate the global terrestrial carbon budget. This study aims to explore the spatial characteristics and controlling factors of Rs in a cropland under winter wheat and summer maize rotation in the North China Plain. We collected Rs data from 23 sample plots in the cropland. At the late jointing stage, the daily mean Rs of summer maize (4.74 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 was significantly higher than that of winter wheat (3.77μmol CO2 m-2 s-1. However, the spatial variation of Rs in summer maize (coefficient of variation, CV = 12.2% was lower than that in winter wheat (CV = 18.5%. A similar trend in CV was also observed for environmental factors but not for biotic factors, such as leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and canopy chlorophyll content. Pearson's correlation analyses based on the sampling data revealed that the spatial variation of Rs was poorly explained by the spatial variations of biotic factors, environmental factors, or soil properties alone for winter wheat and summer maize. The similarly non-significant relationship was observed between Rs and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI, which was used as surrogate for plant photosynthesis. EVI was better correlated with field-measured leaf area index than the normalized difference vegetation index and red edge chlorophyll index. All the data from the 23 sample plots were categorized into three clusters based on the cluster analysis of soil carbon/nitrogen and soil organic carbon content. An apparent improvement was observed in the relationship between Rs and EVI in each cluster for both winter wheat and summer maize. The spatial variation of Rs in the cropland under winter wheat and summer maize rotation could be attributed to the differences in spatial variations of soil properties and biotic factors. The results indicate that applying cluster analysis to minimize differences in soil properties among different

  1. Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li Huang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

  2. The 3-D global spatial data model foundation of the spatial data infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Burkholder, Earl F

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods for handling spatial data are encumbered by the assumption of separate origins for horizontal and vertical measurements. Modern measurement systems operate in a 3-D spatial environment. The 3-D Global Spatial Data Model: Foundation of the Spatial Data Infrastructure offers a new model for handling digital spatial data, the global spatial data model or GSDM. The GSDM preserves the integrity of three-dimensional spatial data while also providing additional benefits such as simpler equations, worldwide standardization, and the ability to track spatial data accuracy with greater specificity and convenience. This groundbreaking spatial model incorporates both a functional model and a stochastic model to connect the physical world to the ECEF rectangular system. Combining horizontal and vertical data into a single, three-dimensional database, this authoritative monograph provides a logical development of theoretical concepts and practical tools that can be used to handle spatial data mo...

  3. Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

    2014-01-01

    Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

  4. Spatial variation and socio-economic determinants of Plasmodium falciparum infection in northeastern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mmbando, Bruno P; Kamugisha, Mathias L; Lusingu, John P

    2011-01-01

    individuals aged 0-19 years were conducted during short (Nov-Dec) and long (May-Jun) rainy seasons from November 2005 to June 2007. Household socio-economic status (SES) data were collected between Jan-April 2006 and household's geographical positions were collected using hand-held geographical positioning...... system (GPS) unit. The effects of risk factors were determined using generalized estimating equation and spatial risk of P. falciparum infection was modelled using a kernel (non-parametric) method. RESULTS: There was a significant spatial variation of P. falciparum infection, and urban areas were...

  5. Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Jeppe Søgaard

    . Such systems are known to be stabilized by spatial structure. Finally, I analyse data from a large mobile phone network and show that people who are topologically close in the network have similar communication patterns. This main part of the thesis is based on six different articles, which I have co...... with interactions defined by network topology. In this thesis I first describe three different biological models of ageing and cancer, in which spatial structure is important for the system dynamics. I then turn to describe characteristics of ecosystems consisting of three cyclically interacting species...

  6. Spatial variability and parametric uncertainty in performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James; Painter, Scott; Tomishima, Yasuo

    2011-01-01

    The problem of defining an appropriate treatment of distribution functions (which could represent spatial variability or parametric uncertainty) is examined based on a generic performance assessment model for a high-level waste repository. The generic model incorporated source term models available in GoldSim ® , the TDRW code for contaminant transport in sparse fracture networks with a complex fracture-matrix interaction process, and a biosphere dose model known as BDOSE TM . Using the GoldSim framework, several Monte Carlo sampling approaches and transport conceptualizations were evaluated to explore the effect of various treatments of spatial variability and parametric uncertainty on dose estimates. Results from a model employing a representative source and ensemble-averaged pathway properties were compared to results from a model allowing for stochastic variation of transport properties along streamline segments (i.e., explicit representation of spatial variability within a Monte Carlo realization). We concluded that the sampling approach and the definition of an ensemble representative do influence consequence estimates. In the examples analyzed in this paper, approaches considering limited variability of a transport resistance parameter along a streamline increased the frequency of fast pathways resulting in relatively high dose estimates, while those allowing for broad variability along streamlines increased the frequency of 'bottlenecks' reducing dose estimates. On this basis, simplified approaches with limited consideration of variability may suffice for intended uses of the performance assessment model, such as evaluation of site safety. (author)

  7. Modified Spatial Channel Model for MIMO Wireless Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Kyösti

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The third generation partnership Project's (3GPP spatial channel model (SCM is a stochastic channel model for MIMO systems. Due to fixed subpath power levels and angular directions, the SCM model does not show the degree of variation which is encountered in real channels. In this paper, we propose a modified SCM model which has random subpath powers and directions and still produces Laplace shape angular power spectrum. Simulation results on outage MIMO capacity with basic and modified SCM models show that the modified SCM model gives constantly smaller capacity values. Accordingly, it seems that the basic SCM gives too small correlation between MIMO antennas. Moreover, the variance in capacity values is larger using the proposed SCM model. Simulation results were supported by the outage capacity results from a measurement campaign conducted in the city centre of Oulu, Finland.

  8. Attribution of spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial methane flux over North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. F. Xu

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The attribution of spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial methane (CH4 flux is essential for assessing and mitigating CH4 emission from terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we used a process-based model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM, in conjunction with spatial data of six major environmental factors to attribute the spatial and temporal variations in the terrestrial methane (CH4 flux over North America from 1979 to 2008 to six individual driving factors and their interaction. Over the past three decades, our simulations indicate that global change factors accumulatively contributed 23.51 ± 9.61 T g CH4-C (1 Tg = 1012 g emission over North America, among which ozone (O3 pollution led to a reduced CH4 emission by 2.30 ± 0.49 T g CH4-C. All other factors including climate variability, nitrogen (N deposition, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2, N fertilizer application, and land conversion enhanced terrestrial CH4 emissions by 19.80 ± 12.42 T g CH4-C, 0.09 ± 0.02 T g CH4-C, 6.80 ± 0.86 T g CH4-C, 0.01 ± 0.001 T g CH4-C, and 3.95 ± 0.38 T g CH4-C, respectively, and interaction between/among these global change factors led to a decline of CH4 emission by 4.84 ± 7.74 T g CH4-C. Climate variability and O3 pollution suppressed, while other factors stimulated CH4 emission over the USA; climate variability significantly enhanced, while all the other factors exerted minor effects, positive or negative, on CH4 emission in Canada; Mexico functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 with a major contribution from climate change. Climatic variability dominated the inter-annual variations in terrestrial CH4 flux at both continental and country levels. Precipitation played an important role in

  9. Temporal and spatial variation of the human microbiota during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGiulio, Daniel B; Callahan, Benjamin J; McMurdie, Paul J; Costello, Elizabeth K; Lyell, Deirdre J; Robaczewska, Anna; Sun, Christine L; Goltsman, Daniela S A; Wong, Ronald J; Shaw, Gary; Stevenson, David K; Holmes, Susan P; Relman, David A

    2015-09-01

    Despite the critical role of the human microbiota in health, our understanding of microbiota compositional dynamics during and after pregnancy is incomplete. We conducted a case-control study of 49 pregnant women, 15 of whom delivered preterm. From 40 of these women, we analyzed bacterial taxonomic composition of 3,767 specimens collected prospectively and weekly during gestation and monthly after delivery from the vagina, distal gut, saliva, and tooth/gum. Linear mixed-effects modeling, medoid-based clustering, and Markov chain modeling were used to analyze community temporal trends, community structure, and vaginal community state transitions. Microbiota community taxonomic composition and diversity remained remarkably stable at all four body sites during pregnancy (P > 0.05 for trends over time). Prevalence of a Lactobacillus-poor vaginal community state type (CST 4) was inversely correlated with gestational age at delivery (P = 0.0039). Risk for preterm birth was more pronounced for subjects with CST 4 accompanied by elevated Gardnerella or Ureaplasma abundances. This finding was validated with a set of 246 vaginal specimens from nine women (four of whom delivered preterm). Most women experienced a postdelivery disturbance in the vaginal community characterized by a decrease in Lactobacillus species and an increase in diverse anaerobes such as Peptoniphilus, Prevotella, and Anaerococcus species. This disturbance was unrelated to gestational age at delivery and persisted for up to 1 y. These findings have important implications for predicting premature labor, a major global health problem, and for understanding the potential impact of a persistent, altered postpartum microbiota on maternal health, including outcomes of pregnancies following short interpregnancy intervals.

  10. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  12. Spatial variation of dosimetric leaf gap and its impact on dose delivery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumaraswamy, Lalith K., E-mail: Lalith.Kumaraswamy@roswellpark.org [Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 and Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Schmitt, Jonathan D. [Department of Radiation Medicine, RadAmerica, LLC-MedStar Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21237 (United States); Bailey, Daniel W. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Northside Hospital, Atlanta, Georgia 30342 (United States); Xu, Zheng Zheng [Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States); Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: During dose calculation, the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) retracts the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaf positions by half of the dosimetric leaf gap (DLG) value (measured at central axis) for all leaf positions in a dynamic MLC plan to accurately model the rounded leaf ends. The aim of this study is to map the variation of DLG along the travel path of each MLC leaf pair and quantify how this variation impacts delivered dose. Methods: 6 MV DLG values were measured for all MLC leaf pairs in increments of 1.0 cm (from the line intersecting the CAX and perpendicular to MLC motion) to 13.0 cm off axis distance at dmax. The measurements were performed on two Varian linear accelerators, both employing the Millennium 120-leaf MLCs. The measurements were performed at several locations in the beam with both a Sun Nuclear MapCHECK device and a PTW pinpoint ion chamber. Results: The measured DLGs for the middle 40 MLC leaf pairs (each 0.5 cm width) at positions along a line through the CAX and perpendicular to MLC leaf travel direction were very similar, varying maximally by only 0.2 mm. The outer 20 MLC leaf pairs (each 1.0 cm width) have much lower DLG values, about 0.3–0.5 mm lower than the central MLC leaf pair, at their respective central line position. Overall, the mean and the maximum variation between the 0.5 cm width leaves and the 1.0 cm width leaf pairs are 0.32 and 0.65 mm, respectively. Conclusions: The spatial variation in DLG is caused by the variation of intraleaf transmission through MLC leaves. Fluences centered on the CAX would not be affected since DLG does not vary; but any fluences residing significantly off axis with narrow sweeping leaves may exhibit significant dose differences. This is due to the fact that there are differences in DLG between the true DLG exhibited by the 1.0 cm width outer leaves and the constant DLG value utilized by the TPS for dose calculation. Since there are large differences in DLG between the 0.5 cm width

  13. Does Encope emarginata (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) affect spatial variation patterns of estuarine subtidal meiofauna and microphytobenthos?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brustolin, Marco C.; Thomas, Micheli C.; Mafra, Luiz L.; Lana, Paulo da Cunha

    2014-08-01

    Foraging macrofauna, such as the sand dollar Encope emarginata, can modify sediment properties and affect spatial distribution patterns of microphytobenthos and meiobenthos at different spatial scales. We adopted a spatial hierarchical approach composed of five spatial levels (km, 100 s m, 10 s m, 1 s m and cm) to describe variation patterns of microphytobenthos, meiobenthos and sediment variables in shallow subtidal regions in the subtropical Paranaguá Bay (Southern Brazil) with live E. emarginata (LE), dead E. emarginata (only skeletons - (DE), and no E. emarginata (WE). The overall structure of microphytobenthos and meiofauna was always less variable at WE and much of variation at the scale of 100 s m was related to variability within LE and DE, due to foraging activities or to the presence of shell hashes. Likewise, increased variability in chlorophyll-a and phaeopigment contents was observed among locations within LE, although textural parameters of sediment varied mainly at smaller scales. Variations within LE were related to changes on the amount and quality of food as a function of sediment heterogeneity induced by the foraging behavior of sand dollars. We provide strong evidence that top-down effects related to the occurrence of E. emarginata act in synergy with bottom-up structuring related to hydrodynamic processes in determining overall benthic spatial variability. Conversely, species richness is mainly influenced by environmental heterogeneity at small spatial scales (centimeters to meters), which creates a mosaic of microhabitats.

  14. Explaining spatial heterogeneity in population dynamics and genetics from spatial variation in resources for a large herbivore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrienne L Contasti

    Full Text Available Fine-scale spatial variation in genetic relatedness and inbreeding occur across continuous distributions of several populations of vertebrates; however, the basis of observed variation is often left untested. Here we test the hypothesis that prior observations of spatial patterns in genetics for an island population of feral horses (Sable Island, Canada were the result of spatial variation in population dynamics, itself based in spatial heterogeneity in underlying habitat quality. In order to assess how genetic and population structuring related to habitat, we used hierarchical cluster analysis of water sources and an indicator analysis of the availability of important forage species to identify a longitudinal gradient in habitat quality along the length of Sable Island. We quantify a west-east gradient in access to fresh water and availability of two important food species to horses: sandwort, Honckenya peploides, and beach pea, Lathyrus japonicas. Accordingly, the population clusters into three groups that occupy different island segments (west, central, and east that vary markedly in their local dynamics. Density, body condition, and survival and reproduction of adult females were highest in the west, followed by central and east areas. These results mirror a previous analysis of genetics, which showed that inbreeding levels are highest in the west (with outbreeding in the east, and that there are significant differences in fixation indices among groups of horses along the length of Sable Island. Our results suggest that inbreeding depression is not an important limiting factor to the horse population. We conclude that where habitat gradients exist, we can anticipate fine-scale heterogeneity in population dynamics and hence genetics.

  15. Explaining spatial heterogeneity in population dynamics and genetics from spatial variation in resources for a large herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contasti, Adrienne L; Tissier, Emily J; Johnstone, Jill F; McLoughlin, Philip D

    2012-01-01

    Fine-scale spatial variation in genetic relatedness and inbreeding occur across continuous distributions of several populations of vertebrates; however, the basis of observed variation is often left untested. Here we test the hypothesis that prior observations of spatial patterns in genetics for an island population of feral horses (Sable Island, Canada) were the result of spatial variation in population dynamics, itself based in spatial heterogeneity in underlying habitat quality. In order to assess how genetic and population structuring related to habitat, we used hierarchical cluster analysis of water sources and an indicator analysis of the availability of important forage species to identify a longitudinal gradient in habitat quality along the length of Sable Island. We quantify a west-east gradient in access to fresh water and availability of two important food species to horses: sandwort, Honckenya peploides, and beach pea, Lathyrus japonicas. Accordingly, the population clusters into three groups that occupy different island segments (west, central, and east) that vary markedly in their local dynamics. Density, body condition, and survival and reproduction of adult females were highest in the west, followed by central and east areas. These results mirror a previous analysis of genetics, which showed that inbreeding levels are highest in the west (with outbreeding in the east), and that there are significant differences in fixation indices among groups of horses along the length of Sable Island. Our results suggest that inbreeding depression is not an important limiting factor to the horse population. We conclude that where habitat gradients exist, we can anticipate fine-scale heterogeneity in population dynamics and hence genetics.

  16. The massive star population in M101. II. Spatial variations in the recent star formation history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grammer, Skyler; Humphreys, Roberta M., E-mail: grammer@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: roberta@umn.edu [Minnesota Institute for Astrophysics, 116 Church Street SE, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2014-09-01

    We investigate star formation history (SFH) as a function of radius in M101 using archival Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys photometry. We derive the SFH from the resolved stellar populations in five 2' wide annuli. Binning the SFH into time frames corresponding to stellar populations traced by Hα, far-ultraviolet, and near-ultraviolet emission, we find that the fraction of stellar populations young enough to contribute in Hα is 15%-35% in the inner regions, compared to less than 5% in the outer regions. This provides a sufficient explanation for the lack of Hα emission at large radii. We also model the blue to red supergiant ratio in our five annuli, examine the effects that a metallicity gradient and variable SFH have on the predicted ratios, and compare to the observed values. We find that the radial behavior of our modeled blue to red supergiant ratios is highly sensitive to both spatial variations in the SFH and metallicity. Incorporating the derived SFH into modeled ratios, we find that we are able to reproduce the observed values at large radii (low metallicity), but at small radii (high metallicity) the modeled and observed ratios are discrepant.

  17. Variation in soil carbon dioxide efflux at two spatial scales in a topographically complex boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Katharine C.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Neff, Jason C.

    2012-01-01

    Carbon dynamics of high-latitude regions are an important and highly uncertain component of global carbon budgets, and efforts to constrain estimates of soil-atmosphere carbon exchange in these regions are contingent on accurate representations of spatial and temporal variability in carbon fluxes. This study explores spatial and temporal variability in soilatmosphere carbon dynamics at both fine and coarse spatial scales in a high-elevation, permafrost-dominated boreal black spruce forest. We evaluate the importance of landscape-level investigations of soil-atmosphere carbon dynamics by characterizing seasonal trends in soil-atmosphere carbon exchange, describing soil temperature-moisture-respiration relations, and quantifying temporal and spatial variability at two spatial scales: the plot scale (0–5 m) and the landscape scale (500–1000 m). Plot-scale spatial variability (average variation on a given measurement day) in soil CO2 efflux ranged from a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.25 to 0.69, and plot-scale temporal variability (average variation of plots across measurement days) in efflux ranged from a CV of 0.19 to 0.36. Landscape-scale spatial and temporal variability in efflux was represented by a CV of 0.40 and 0.31, respectively, indicating that plot-scale spatial variability in soil respiration is as great as landscape-scale spatial variability at this site. While soil respiration was related to soil temperature at both the plot- and landscape scale, landscape-level descriptions of soil moisture were necessary to define soil respiration-moisture relations. Soil moisture variability was also integral to explaining temporal variability in soil respiration. Our results have important implications for research efforts in high-latitude regions where remote study sites make landscape-scale field campaigns challenging.

  18. Spatial and temporal variations of water balance components due to a bottomland hedgerow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Z.; Ghazavi, G.; Merot, P.

    2009-04-01

    -water content is not limited and can exceed the potential evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal variations of water balance components is highly related to climatic conditions Such research suggests that the impact of the destruction of the wooded linear structures on the water cycle and water resources had been underestimated. Moreover, these results support the urgent need to improve hydrological models to predict the impact of climatic changes on water cycle by including the impact of land use and land cover. Keywords: spatial and temporal variations, climatic context, hedgerow, water balance, transpiration, drainage, capillary rise.

  19. Unsupervised Posture Modeling Based on Spatial-Temporal Movement Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Chunjuan

    Traditional posture modeling for human action recognition is based on silhouette segmentation, which is subject to the noise from illumination variation and posture occlusions and shadow interruptions. In this paper, we extract spatial temporal movement features from human actions and adopt unsupervised clustering method for salient posture learning. First, spatial-temporal interest points (STIPs) were extracted according to the properties of human movement, and then, histogram of gradient was built to describe the distribution of STIPs in each frame for a single pose. In addition, the training samples were clustered by non-supervised classification method. Moreover, the salient postures were modeled with GMM according to Expectation Maximization (EM) estimation. The experiment results proved that our method can effectively and accurately recognize human's action postures.

  20. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Atmospheric Aerosol in Osaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonoyo Mukai

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that the aerosol distribution in Asia is complex due to both the increasing emissions of the anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth and the behavior of natural dusts. Therefore, detailed observations of atmospheric particles in Asian urban cities are important. In this work, we focus on the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric particles around Higashi-Osaka in Japan. Higashi-Osaka is located in the eastern part of Osaka, the second-largest city in Japan, and is famous for small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. For this study, we placed various ground measurement devices around the Higashi-Osaka campus of Kinki University including a Cimel sunphotometer supported by NASA/AERONET (Aerosol robotics network, suspended particulate matter (SPM sampler and LIDAR (light detection and ranging. Individual particle analyses with a SEM (scanning electron microscope/EDX (energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer show the temporal variations of particle properties, such as size, shape and components, during a dust event on 21 March 2010. The simultaneous measurement using a portable sun photometer with AERONET was conducted from April to November 2011. A comparison of the data at each site and the combination of the observed LIDAR data and model simulations indicate the difference in the transportation processes between dust and anthropogenic particles. We suppose this difference is attributed to the differences in the vertical aerosol profiles, where one aerosol is transported over Mount Ikoma and the other is blocked by it.

  1. Natural Convection in an Inclined Porous Cavity with Spatial Sidewall Temperature Variations

    OpenAIRE

    Selamat, M. S.; Roslan, R.; Hashim, I.

    2012-01-01

    The natural convection in an inclined porous square cavity is investigated numerically. The left wall is assumed to have spatial sinusoidal temperature variations about a constant mean value, while the right wall is cooled. The horizontal walls are considered adiabatic. A finite difference method is used to solve numerically the nondimensional governing equations. The effects of the inclination angle of the cavity, the amplitude and wave numbers of the heated sidewall temperature variation o...

  2. Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2015-01-01

    For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

  3. Delay Variation Model with Two Service Queues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Rezac

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Delay in VoIP technology is very unpleasant issue and therefore a voice packets prioritization must be ensured. To maintain the high call quality a maximum information delivery time from the sender to the recipient is set to 150 ms. This paper focuses on the design of a mathematical model of end-to-end delay of a VoIP connection, in particular on a delay variation. It describes all partial delay components and mechanisms, their generation, facilities and mathematical formulations. A new approach to the delay variation model is presented and its validation has been done by experimention.

  4. Spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana: 2010–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Badu Osei

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diarrhea is a public health menace, especially in developing countries. Knowledge of the biological and anthropogenic characteristics is abundant. However, little is known about its spatial patterns especially in developing countries like Ghana. This study aims to map and explore the spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana. Methods Data on district level incidences of diarrhea from 2010 to 2014 were compiled together with population data. We mapped the relative risks using empirical Bayesian smoothing. The spatial scan statistics was used to detect and map spatial and space-time clusters. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between space-time clustering and urbanization strata, i.e. rural, peri-urban, and urban districts. Results We observed substantial variation in the spatial distribution of the relative risk. There was evidence of significant spatial clusters with most of the excess incidences being long-term with only a few being emerging clusters. Space-time clustering was found to be more likely to occur in peri-urban districts than in rural and urban districts. Conclusion This study has revealed that the excess incidences of diarrhea is spatially clustered with peri-urban districts showing the greatest risk of space-time clustering. More attention should therefore be paid to diarrhea in peri-urban districts. These findings also prompt public health officials to integrate disease mapping and cluster analyses in developing location specific interventions for reducing diarrhea.

  5. Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2016-12-19

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  6. Elevational gradients in β-diversity reflect variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms across spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tello, J Sebastián; Myers, Jonathan A; Macía, Manuel J; Fuentes, Alfredo F; Cayola, Leslie; Arellano, Gabriel; Loza, M Isabel; Torrez, Vania; Cornejo, Maritza; Miranda, Tatiana B; Jørgensen, Peter M

    2015-01-01

    Despite long-standing interest in elevational-diversity gradients, little is known about the processes that cause changes in the compositional variation of communities (β-diversity) across elevations. Recent studies have suggested that β-diversity gradients are driven by variation in species pools, rather than by variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or local biotic interactions. However, tests of this hypothesis have been limited to very small spatial scales that limit inferences about how the relative importance of assembly mechanisms may change across spatial scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that scale-dependent community assembly mechanisms shape biogeographic β-diversity gradients using one of the most well-characterized elevational gradients of tropical plant diversity. Using an extensive dataset on woody plant distributions along a 4,000-m elevational gradient in the Bolivian Andes, we compared observed patterns of β-diversity to null-model expectations. β-deviations (standardized differences from null values) were used to measure the relative effects of local community assembly mechanisms after removing sampling effects caused by variation in species pools. To test for scale-dependency, we compared elevational gradients at two contrasting spatial scales that differed in the size of local assemblages and regions by at least an order of magnitude. Elevational gradients in β-diversity persisted after accounting for regional variation in species pools. Moreover, the elevational gradient in β-deviations changed with spatial scale. At small scales, local assembly mechanisms were detectable, but variation in species pools accounted for most of the elevational gradient in β-diversity. At large spatial scales, in contrast, local assembly mechanisms were a dominant force driving changes in β-diversity. In contrast to the hypothesis that variation in species pools alone

  7. Elevational gradients in β-diversity reflect variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms across spatial scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Sebastián Tello

    Full Text Available Despite long-standing interest in elevational-diversity gradients, little is known about the processes that cause changes in the compositional variation of communities (β-diversity across elevations. Recent studies have suggested that β-diversity gradients are driven by variation in species pools, rather than by variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or local biotic interactions. However, tests of this hypothesis have been limited to very small spatial scales that limit inferences about how the relative importance of assembly mechanisms may change across spatial scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that scale-dependent community assembly mechanisms shape biogeographic β-diversity gradients using one of the most well-characterized elevational gradients of tropical plant diversity. Using an extensive dataset on woody plant distributions along a 4,000-m elevational gradient in the Bolivian Andes, we compared observed patterns of β-diversity to null-model expectations. β-deviations (standardized differences from null values were used to measure the relative effects of local community assembly mechanisms after removing sampling effects caused by variation in species pools. To test for scale-dependency, we compared elevational gradients at two contrasting spatial scales that differed in the size of local assemblages and regions by at least an order of magnitude. Elevational gradients in β-diversity persisted after accounting for regional variation in species pools. Moreover, the elevational gradient in β-deviations changed with spatial scale. At small scales, local assembly mechanisms were detectable, but variation in species pools accounted for most of the elevational gradient in β-diversity. At large spatial scales, in contrast, local assembly mechanisms were a dominant force driving changes in β-diversity. In contrast to the hypothesis that variation in

  8. Spatial and temporal variation of fish assemblages in a subtropical small stream of the Huangshan Mountain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunzhi YAN,Shan HE, Ling CHU, Xiuying XIANG, Yanju JIA, Juan TAO, Yifeng CHEN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variation of fish assemblages were investigated seasonally from May 2007 to February 2008 across 11 study sites in a subtropical small stream, the Puxi Stream, of the Huangshan Mountain. Along the longitudinal gradient from headwater to downstream, fish species richness and abundance increased gradually, but then decreased significantly at the lower reaches. The highest species richness and abundance were observed in August and the lowest in February. Based on analysis of similarities (ANOSIM, fish assemblages were significantly different in spatial variation but not in temporal variation. Although differences were observed both among sites and among stream orders, the lower R value in order-variation suggested stream order was not the optimal factor explaining the spatial variation of fish assemblages. In addition, dam construction did not significantly alter fish assemblages in the sites adjacent to and immediately downstream to dams. Using cluster analysis and non-metric Multi Dimensional Scaling analysis (NMS, assemblages were separated into three groups at a Bray-Curtis similarity value of 42%: the upper, middle and lower groups. Following analysis of similarity percentages of species contributions (SIMPER, shifts in occurrence or abundance of S. curriculus, Z. platypus, R. bitterling and A. fasciatus contributed most to the differences amongst the three groups. Standard Deviation Redundancy Analysis (RDA suggested that habitat structure (such as elevation, substrate, and flow velocity contributed to the spatial and temporal pattern of fish assemblages in the Puxi Stream. In conclusion, the fish assemblages in Puxi Stream presented significant spatial but not temporal variation. Human disturbance has perhaps induced the decrease in species diversity in the lower reaches. However, no significant change was observed for fish assemblages in sites far from and immediately downstream from low-head dams [Current Zoology 56 (6

  9. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  10. analysis of spatial-temporal variations and driving force of low cloud in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

    2015-04-01

    Cloud plays a crucial role in the climate system, and better understanding of its characteristics and formation mechanism are essential to study the climate system, improve the performance of climate models, and to provide scientific basis on conducting weather modification activities and better using water resources for the purpose of improving the local climate and ecological environment. During 1961 to 2005, decrease trend is detected for the total cloud amount over most parts of northern China, while increase trend is found for the low cloud amount with significant regionality. Both station and ISCCP D2 datasets present similar spatial distributions and interdecadal variation of high cloud. However two datasets show different characters for those of low cloud. Three typical sub-regions are chosen considering their underlying surface features and the temporal trend of low cloud amount, over which the interdecadal variations of low cloud amount in three regions are systematically investigated. The analyses show the strong regionality and seasonality in low cloud amount's temporal variations and trend, and quasi-biannual oscillations are observed in low cloud amount in three regions in the past 45 years. The relationships between 500 hPa circulation indexes and low cloud over the three regions are examined by means of singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the summer low cloud amount in Xinjiang is closely related with the Subtropical High, the Tibetan Plateau and Polar Vortex, and the autumn low cloud amount in North China is affected by the area of Subtropical High and intensity of Polar Vortex. For northeast China the controlling factor that affects the spring low cloud amount is the area of Polar Vortex in quadrant ⅳ(30°W-60°E).

  11. Explaining growth variation over large spatial scales: Effects of temperature and food on walleye growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosgaard, Thomas; Venturelli, Paul; Lester, Nigel P.

    2012-01-01

    Most fishes exhibit strong spatial variation in growth. Because fish growth and production are tightly linked, quantifying and explaining variation in growth can mean the difference between successful management and unforeseen collapse. However, disentangling the factors that are responsible...... freshwater fish species in North America. We then use length at age data from yellow perch (Perca flavescens) to identify the mechanisms behind the remaining variation in the length at age – temperature relationship for walleye. A positive perch – walleye relationship indicates that the mechanism behind...

  12. A Spatially Extended Model for Residential Segregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Aguilera

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze urban spatial segregation phenomenon in terms of the income distribution over a population, and an inflationary parameter weighting the evolution of housing prices. For this, we develop a discrete spatially extended model based on a multiagent approach. In our model, the mobility of socioeconomic agents is driven only by the housing prices. Agents exchange location in order to fit their status to the cost of their housing. On the other hand, the price of a particular house depends on the status of its tenant, and on the neighborhood mean lodging cost weighted by a control parameter. The agent's dynamics converges to a spatially organized configuration, whose regularity is measured by using an entropy-like indicator. This simple model provides a dynamical process organizing the virtual city, in a way that the population inequality and the inflationary parameter determine the degree of residential segregation in the final stage of the process, in agreement with the segregation-inequality thesis put forward by Douglas Massey.

  13. Spatial variation in size at onset of maturity of female southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii around Tasmania, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caleb Gardner

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available P align=justify>The size at onset of maturity (SOM of female Jasus edwardsii (Hutton, 1875 was estimated at 50 sites around Tasmania, Australia, based on the presence of ovigerous setae. There was a distinct spatial cline with the largest SOM being found at northwestern sites and the smallest at southwestern sites. Variation in SOM between sites was substantial and ranged from 59 mm to 112 mm carapace length. The observed decline in SOM from north to south was the reverse of that described for the same species at similar latitudes in New Zealand, which suggests that SOM in J. edwardsii is regulated by factors in addition to temperature. The effect of density on female SOM was investigated by comparing SOM estimates from two marine reserves with adjacent fished sites; however, there was no evidence of a decline in SOM with increasing density as predicted. A model of SOM predicted by latitude and longitude is described to facilitate spatial modelling of lobster stocks. The substantial and predictable spatial variation in SOM implies that management of this fishery would be improved by incorporating spatial elements, such as regional legal minimum size limits.

  14. The use of gis to study the spatial variation of diseases: a case of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ability to formulate disease control programmes and put strategic action plans into practice has become an important issue for Regional Health Directorates in Ghana. An important factor in disease control programmes is to correlate variations in different communities with environmental factors using spatially reliable ...

  15. Survey and cartography of the spatial variation of the pollution of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The objective of this work was conducted to study and map the spatial variation of the physical, chemical and microbiological contamination of well water in some areas of the town of Abomey-Calavi in. Benin. Methods and Results: The methods used to measure physical and chemical parameters are those ...

  16. Spatial variation in growth, condition and maturation reaction norms of the Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vainikka, A.; Mollet, F.M.; Casini, M.; Gardmark, A.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding of spatial patterns in life-history traits can help fisheries management focus on biologically and functionally relevant stock units. In the present study, we examined life-history variation in growth, condition and maturation of the Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras among

  17. Spatial variations of order parameter around Kondo impurity for T<=Tsub(c)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoksan, S.

    1980-04-01

    Analytic expressions for the spatial variations of the order parameter around a Kondo impurity are obtained. The oscillatory contribution due to the impurity scattering is calculated using the t matrix of Matsuura which conveniently yields the general results below Tsub(c). Differences between our values and those of Schlottmann are reported. (author)

  18. Variations in the spatial distribution of gall bladder cancer: a call for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: The incidence of gall bladder cancers in this part of the world is high and the spatial variation in occurrence of gall bladder cancers can be identified by using geographical information system. Materials and Methods: Data set containing the address information of gall bladder cancer patients from the District of ...

  19. Spatial and social variations in cycling patterns in a mature cycling country: exploring differences and trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, L.; Bertolini, L.; te Brömmelstroet, M.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the Netherlands’ position as a premier cycling country (mainly due to its high cycling mode share), there is scarce insight into the variations of bicycle use between different spatial and social contexts as well as changes and trends over time. This gap severely limits the understanding of

  20. Spatial and temporal variation of surface waves in shallow waters along the eastern Arabian Sea.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anoop, T.R.; SanilKumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.

    We studied the spatial and temporal variation of surface waves along the eastern Arabian Sea during 2011 and 2012. Measured directional wave data at two shallow water locations and re-analysis datasets (ERA-Interim) at 0.751 intervals at four...

  1. Entrepreneurial Regions : Causes and Consequences of the Spatial Variation of Entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Modrego Benito, Felix Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of the spatial variation in entrepreneurship, and its relationship with regional growth and development. The study is conducted using Chile as the empirical setting. The results indicate that conditions for general

  2. Modeling Soil Temperature Variations | Ogunlela | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reports on modeling soil temperature variations. Transient heat flow principles were used in the study, with the assumptions that the heat flow was one-dimensional, the soil was homogenous and that the thermal diffusivity was constant. Average conditions are also assumed. The annual and diurnal (daily) soil ...

  3. Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    Jan 27, 2016 ... Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status. Natalie A. ... Regular monitoring of solar irradiance has been carried out since 1978 to show that solar total and spectral irradiance varies at different time scales. Whereas ... Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany.

  4. Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrie, J; Imbrie, J Z

    1980-02-29

    According to the astronomical theory of climate, variations in the earth's orbit are the fundamental cause of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. This article summarizes how the theory has evolved since the pioneer studies of James Croll and Milutin Milankovitch, reviews recent evidence that supports the theory, and argues that a major opportunity is at hand to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing. After a survey of the kinds of models that have been applied to this problem, a strategy is suggested for building simple, physically motivated models, and a time-dependent model is developed that simulates the history of planetary glaciation for the past 500,000 years. Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.

  5. Indoorgml - a Standard for Indoor Spatial Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ki-Joune

    2016-06-01

    With recent progress of mobile devices and indoor positioning technologies, it becomes possible to provide location-based services in indoor space as well as outdoor space. It is in a seamless way between indoor and outdoor spaces or in an independent way only for indoor space. However, we cannot simply apply spatial models developed for outdoor space to indoor space due to their differences. For example, coordinate reference systems are employed to indicate a specific position in outdoor space, while the location in indoor space is rather specified by cell number such as room number. Unlike outdoor space, the distance between two points in indoor space is not determined by the length of the straight line but the constraints given by indoor components such as walls, stairs, and doors. For this reason, we need to establish a new framework for indoor space from fundamental theoretical basis, indoor spatial data models, and information systems to store, manage, and analyse indoor spatial data. In order to provide this framework, an international standard, called IndoorGML has been developed and published by OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium). This standard is based on a cellular notion of space, which considers an indoor space as a set of non-overlapping cells. It consists of two types of modules; core module and extension module. While core module consists of four basic conceptual and implementation modeling components (geometric model for cell, topology between cells, semantic model of cell, and multi-layered space model), extension modules may be defined on the top of the core module to support an application area. As the first version of the standard, we provide an extension for indoor navigation.

  6. Spatially explicit non-Mendelian diploid model

    OpenAIRE

    Lanchier, N.; Neuhauser, C.

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a spatially explicit model for the competition between type $a$ and type $b$ alleles. Each vertex of the $d$-dimensional integer lattice is occupied by a diploid individual, which is in one of three possible states or genotypes: $aa$, $ab$ or $bb$. We are interested in the long-term behavior of the gene frequencies when Mendel's law of segregation does not hold. This results in a voter type model depending on four parameters; each of these parameters measures the strength of comp...

  7. High spatial variation in terrestrial arthropod species diversity and composition near the Greenland ice cap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Hansen, Oskar Liset Pryds; Bowden, Joseph James

    2016-01-01

    conclude that Arctic arthropod species assemblages vary substantially over short distances due to local soil characteristics, while regional variation in the species pool is likely influenced by geographic barriers, i.e., inland ice sheet, glaciers, mountains and large water bodies. In order to predict......Arthropods form a major part of the terrestrial species diversity in the Arctic, and are particularly sensitive to temporal changes in the abiotic environment. It is assumed that most Arctic arthropods are habitat generalists and that their diversity patterns exhibit low spatial variation....... The empirical basis for this assumption, however, is weak. We examine the degree of spatial variation in species diversity and assemblage structure among five habitat types at two sites of similar abiotic conditions and plant species composition in southwest Greenland, using standardized field collection...

  8. The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, J. A.

    1985-01-01

    A model for the quantitative assessment of human spatial habitability is presented in the space station context. The visual aspect assesses how interior spaces appear to the inhabitants. This aspect concerns criteria such as sensed spaciousness and the affective (emotional) connotations of settings' appearances. The kinesthetic aspect evaluates the available space in terms of its suitability to accommodate human movement patterns, as well as the postural and anthrometric changes due to microgravity. Finally, social logic concerns how the volume and geometry of available space either affirms or contravenes established social and organizational expectations for spatial arrangements. Here, the criteria include privacy, status, social power, and proxemics (the uses of space as a medium of social communication).

  9. Modeling mental spatial reasoning about cardinal directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultheis, Holger; Bertel, Sven; Barkowsky, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This article presents research into human mental spatial reasoning with orientation knowledge. In particular, we look at reasoning problems about cardinal directions that possess multiple valid solutions (i.e., are spatially underdetermined), at human preferences for some of these solutions, and at representational and procedural factors that lead to such preferences. The article presents, first, a discussion of existing, related conceptual and computational approaches; second, results of empirical research into the solution preferences that human reasoners actually have; and, third, a novel computational model that relies on a parsimonious and flexible spatio-analogical knowledge representation structure to robustly reproduce the behavior observed with human reasoners. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  10. Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

    2010-01-01

    Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

  11. Patterns of spatial variation of assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores: a global perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan José Cruz-Motta

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org. There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs; however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution, we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses.

  12. Geomagnetic Core Field Secular Variation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillet, N.; Lesur, V.; Olsen, Nils

    2010-01-01

    We analyse models describing time changes of the Earth’s core magnetic field (secular variation) covering the historical period (several centuries) and the more recent satellite era (previous decade), and we illustrate how both the information contained in the data and the a priori information...... (regularisation) affect the result of the ill-posed geomagnetic inverse problem. We show how data quality, frequency and selection procedures govern part of the temporal changes in the secular variation norms and spectra, which are sometimes difficult to dissociate from true changes of the core state. We...... highlight the difficulty of resolving the time variability of the high degree secular variation coefficients (i.e. the secular acceleration), arising for instance from the challenge to properly separate sources of internal and of external origin. In addition, the regularisation process may also result...

  13. Spatial Database Modeling for Indoor Navigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotlib, Dariusz; Gnat, Miłosz

    2013-12-01

    For many years, cartographers are involved in designing GIS and navigation systems. Most GIS applications use the outdoor data. Increasingly, similar applications are used inside buildings. Therefore it is important to find the proper model of indoor spatial database. The development of indoor navigation systems should utilize advanced teleinformation, geoinformatics, geodetic and cartographical knowledge. The authors present the fundamental requirements for the indoor data model for navigation purposes. Presenting some of the solutions adopted in the world they emphasize that navigation applications require specific data to present the navigation routes in the right way. There is presented original solution for indoor data model created by authors on the basis of BISDM model. Its purpose is to expand the opportunities for use in indoor navigation.

  14. Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Jeppe Søgaard

    with interactions defined by network topology. In this thesis I first describe three different biological models of ageing and cancer, in which spatial structure is important for the system dynamics. I then turn to describe characteristics of ecosystems consisting of three cyclically interacting species......When studying the dynamics of living systems, insight can often be gained by developing a mathematical model that can predict future behaviour of the system or help classify system characteristics. However, in living cells, organisms, and especially groups of interacting individuals, a large number...... of different factors influence the time development of the system. This often makes it challenging to construct a mathematical model from which to draw conclusions. One traditional way of capturing the dynamics in a mathematical model is to formulate a set of coupled differential equations for the essential...

  15. Spatial and temporal variations in sap flux density in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) trees, central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Han; Chiu, Chen-Wei; Wey, Tsong-Huei; Kume, Tomonori

    2013-04-01

    Sap flow measurement method is a technique widely used for measuring forest transpiration. However, variations in sap flow distribution can make accurately estimating individual tree-scale transpiration difficult. Significant spatial variations in sap flow across the sapwood within tree have been reported in many studies. In contrast, few studies have discussed azimuthal variations in sap flow, and even fewer have examined their seasonal change characteristics. This study was undertaken to clarify within-tree special and temporal variations in sap flow, and to propose an appropriate design for individual-tree scale transpiration estimates for Japanese cedar trees. The measurement was conducted in a Japanese cedar plantation located in Central Taiwan. Spatial distribution of sap flux density through the sapwood cross-section was measured using Granier's thermal dissipation technique. Sensors were installed at 1.3 m high on the east, west, north and south sides of the stem at 0-2 cm in 8 trees, and at 2-4 cm in the 6 larger trees. We found, in radial profile analysis, that sap flux densities measured at the depth of 2-4 cm were 50 % in average of those measured at depth of 0-2 cm. In azimuthal profile analysis, we found significant azimuthal variations in sap flux density. In one individual tree, the ratio of sap flux density on one aspect to another could be approximately 40-190 %, with no dependency on directions. Both radial and azimuthal profiles in most sample trees were fairly consistent throughout the measurement period. We concluded that radial and azimuthal variations in sap flow across sapwood might introduce significant errors in individual tree-scale transpiration estimations based on single point sap flow measurement, and seasonal change of within-tree spatial variations in sap flow could have insignificant impacts on accuracy of long-term individual tree-scale transpiration estimates. Keywords: transpiration, sap flow measurement, scaling up, sap flow

  16. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  17. A Computational Model of Spatial Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven

    Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.

  18. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  19. Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs in anaemia endemicity; and (ii develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15, S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86% were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

  20. Patterns of allozyme variation in diploid and tetraploid Centaurea jacea at different spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, O J; Vekemans, X

    2001-05-01

    The extent and spatial patterns of genetic variation at allozyme markers were investigated within and between diploid and autotetraploid knapweeds (Centaurea jacea L. sensu lato, Asteraceae) at contrasted geographic scales: (1) among populations sampled from a diploid-tetraploid contact zone in the northeastern part of the Belgian Ardennes, and (2) within mixed populations from that zone where diploids and tetraploids coexist. Our data were also compared with a published dataset by Sommer (1990) describing allozyme variation in separate diploid and tetraploid knapweeds populations collected throughout Europe. Genetic diversity was higher in tetraploids. In the Belgian Ardennes and within the mixed populations, both cytotypes had similar levels of spatial genetic structure, they were genetically differentiated, and their distributions of allele frequencies were not spatially correlated. In contrast, at the European scale, diploids and tetraploids did not show differentiated gene pools and presented a strong correlation between their patterns of spatial genetic variation. Numerical simulations showed that the striking difference in patterns observed at small and large geographic scales could be accounted for by a combination of (1) isolation by distance within cytotypes; and (2) partial reproductive barriers between cytotypes and/or recurrent formation of tetraploids. We suggest that this may explain the difficulty of the taxonomic treatment of knapweeds and of polyploid complexes in general.

  1. Spatial-temporal variation of groundwater and land subsidence evolution in Beijing area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lei

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the main recharge source of groundwater in the plain of Beijing, China. Rapid expansion of urbanization has resulted in increased built-up area and decreased amount of effective recharge of precipitation to groundwater, indirectly leading to the long-term over-exploitation of groundwater, and induced regional land subsidence. Based on the combination of meteorological data, groundwater level data, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR; specifically persistent scatterer interferometry, PSI, geographic information system (GIS spatial analysis method and rainfall recharge theory, this paper presents a systematic analysis of spatial-temporal variation of groundwater level and land subsidence evolution. Results show that rainfall has been decreasing annually, while the exploitation of groundwater is increasing and the groundwater level is declining, which is has caused the formation and evolution of land subsidence. Seasonal and interannual variations exist in the evolution of land subsidence; the subsidence is uneven in both spatial and temporal distribution. In 2011, at the center of mapped subsidence the subsidence rate was greater than 120 mm a−1. The results revealed good correlation between the spatial distribution of groundwater level declines and subsidence. The research results show that it is beneficial to measure the evolution of land subsidence to dynamic variations of groundwater levels by combining InSAR or PSI, groundwater-level data, and GIS. This apprpach provides improved information for environmental and hydrogeologic research and a scientific basis for regional land subsidence control.

  2. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  3. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John M; Bieri, Joanna A; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia E; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Erickson, Richard A; Norris, D Ryan

    2018-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  4. Spatial Variation of Biomass Carbon Density in a Subtropical Region of Southeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijun Fu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatial pattern information of forest biomass carbon (FBC density in forest ecosystems plays an important role in evaluating carbon sequestration potentials and forest management. The spatial variation of FBC density in a subtropical region of southeastern China was studied using geostatistics combined with Moran’s I and geographical information systems (GIS. Forest biomass carbon density values were variable, ranging from 0.12 Mg ha−1 to 182.12 Mg ha−1, with an average of 27.33 Mg ha−1. The FBC density had the strongest positive correlation with forest age, followed by forest litter and elevation. The FBC density had significant positive spatial autocorrelation revealed by global Moran’s I. Clear spatial patterns were observed based on local Moran’s I. High FBC density values were mainly distributed in the northwestern and southwestern parts of Zhejiang province, which were related to adopting long-term policy of forest conservation in these areas, while low FBC density values located in the middle part and southeastern coastal area of the study area due to low forest coverage and intensive management of economic forests. The Moran’s I combined with geostatistical interpolation proved to be a useful tool for studying spatial variation of FBC density.

  5. Temporal and spatial variations of travel-time residuals in central California for Novaya Zemlya events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, R.; Iyer, H.M.

    1976-01-01

    Eight large nuclear explosions in Novaya Zemlya from October 1969 through November 1974 were used to monitor long-term variations in crustal seismic velocity near the San Andreas fault in central California. Relative P-wave travel-time residuals appear to be accurate to approximately +-0.1 sec. Of the over 100 stations used, none show clearly significant temporal variations in residual greater than this amount, corresponding to about a 4 percent change in velocity in the upper crust. Average relative residuals at individual stations show a large spatial variation of about 1.5 sec. These variations reflect both a complex crustal geology and changes in crustal thickness and provide a potentially powerful tool for studying crustal structure

  6. Modeling response variation for radiometric calorimeters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.L. II.

    1986-01-01

    Radiometric calorimeters are widely used in the DOE complex for accountability measurements of plutonium and tritium. Proper characterization of response variation for these instruments is, therefore, vital for accurate assessment of measurement control as well as for propagation of error calculations. This is not difficult for instruments used to measure items within a narrow range of power values; however, when a single instrument is used to measure items over a wide range of power values, improper estimates of uncertainty can result since traditional error models for radiometric calorimeters assume that uncertainty is not a function of sample power. This paper describes methods which can be used to accurately estimate random response variation for calorimeters used to measure items over a wide range of sample powers. The model is applicable to the two most common modes of calorimeter operation: heater replacement and servo control. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  7. Spatial Variations of Soil Gas Geochemistry in the Tangshan Area of Northern China

    OpenAIRE

    Ying Li; Jianguo Du; Xin Wang; Xiaocheng Zhou; Chao Xie; Yueju Cui

    2013-01-01

    The concentrations of Hg, Rn, H2, He and CO2 in soil gases at 756 sites were measured in the Tangshan area where Ms 7.8 earthquake occurred in 1976 and is characterized by complex tectonic structures and high seismic hazard. The results showed that, spatial variations of the gaseous anomalies, especially hydrogen and helium have spatial congruence along the tectonic lines, which can be attributed to their deep sources and the migration paths formed by the faults. A better congruence of radon ...

  8. Spatial and temporal variation of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in China during 2014-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Cui, Lulu; Li, Junlin; Zhao, An; Fu, Hongbo; Wu, Yu; Zhang, Liwu; Kong, Lingdong; Chen, Jianmin

    2017-07-01

    China is experiencing severe air pollution due to rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization. High-resolution temporal and spatial air pollution data are imperative to understand the physical and chemical processes affecting air quality of China. The data of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 in 187 Chinese cities during January 2014 and November 2016 were collected to uncover the spatial and temporal variation of the pollutants in China. The annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 exceeded the Grade I standard of Chinese Ambient Air Quality (CAAQS) for all of the cities except several cities in Hainan, and more than 100 cities exceeded the CAAQS Grade II standard. The concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and NO2 decreased from 2014 to 2016, whereas the O3 level increased dramatically during this period. The concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO and NO2 exhibited the highest levels in winter and the lowest in summer, and evidently decreased from 2014 to 2016, whereas the O3 concentration peaked in spring and summer, and dramatically increased from 2014 to 2016. The non-attainment ratios were highest in winters, while high pollution days were also frequently observed in the Southeast region in autumn and in the Northwest region in spring. Pearson correlation analysis indicated that all of the pollutants exhibited significant correlation one another. PM10 was a major pollutant affecting the air quality of China in all of the seasons. Both SO2 and NO2 exerted significantly adverse effects on the air quality in spring and autumn, but CO played an important role on the air quality in winter. O3 was found to be the dominant species among the pollutants affecting the air quality in summer, suggesting that photochemical O3 formation should be paid more attention to improve the air quality in summer. The results of geographical weight regression (GWR) showed that more significant correlations among the pollutants and the highest air quality index (AQI) appeared

  9. Ecological and evolutionary consequences of tri-trophic interactions: Spatial variation and effects of plant density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdala-Roberts, Luis; Parra-Tabla, Víctor; Moreira, Xoaquín; Ramos-Zapata, José

    2017-02-01

    The factors driving variation in species interactions are often unknown, and few studies have made a link between changes in interactions and the strength of selection. We report on spatial variation in functional responses by a seed predator (SP) and its parasitic wasps associated with the herb Ruellia nudiflora . We assessed the influence of plant density on consumer responses and determined whether density effects and spatial variation in functional responses altered natural selection by these consumers on the plant. We established common gardens at two sites in Yucatan, Mexico, and planted R. nudiflora at two densities in each garden. We recorded fruit output and SP and parasitoid attack; calculated relative fitness (seed number) under scenarios of three trophic levels (accounting for SP and parasitoid effects), two trophic levels (accounting for SP but not parasitoid effects), and one trophic level (no consumer effects); and compared selection strength on fruit number under these scenarios across sites and densities. There was spatial variation in SP recruitment, whereby the SP functional response was negatively density-dependent at one site but density-independent at the other; parasitoid responses were density-independent and invariant across sites. Site variation in SP attack led, in turn, to differences in SP selection on fruit output, and parasitoids did not alter SP selection. There were no significant effects of density at either site. Our results provide a link between consumer functional responses and consumer selection on plants, which deepens our understanding of geographic variation in the evolutionary outcomes of multitrophic interactions. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  10. Spatial variation of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and critical loads for aquatic ecosystems in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanus, L; McMurray, J A; Clow, D W; Saros, J E; Blett, T; Gurdak, J J

    2017-04-01

    Current and historic atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has impacted aquatic ecosystems in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). Understanding the spatial variation in total atmospheric deposition (wet + dry) of N is needed to estimate air pollution deposition critical loads for sensitive aquatic ecosystems. This is particularly important for areas that have an increasing contribution of ammonia dry deposition to total N (TN), such as the GYA. High resolution geostatistical models and maps of TN deposition (wet + dry) were developed using a variety of techniques including ordinary kriging in a geographic information system, to evaluate spatial variability and identify areas of elevated loading of pollutants for the GYA. TN deposition estimates in the GYA range from models and maps can be used to help identify and protect sensitive ecosystems that may be impacted by excess atmospheric N deposition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

    2018-03-15

    Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

  12. Natural Convection in an Inclined Porous Cavity with Spatial Sidewall Temperature Variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Selamat

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The natural convection in an inclined porous square cavity is investigated numerically. The left wall is assumed to have spatial sinusoidal temperature variations about a constant mean value, while the right wall is cooled. The horizontal walls are considered adiabatic. A finite difference method is used to solve numerically the nondimensional governing equations. The effects of the inclination angle of the cavity, the amplitude and wave numbers of the heated sidewall temperature variation on the natural convection in the cavity are studied. The maximum average Nusselt number occurs at different wave number. It also found that the inclination could influence the Nusselt number.

  13. Spatial variation of the bottom of seismogenic layer beneath the Japan Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omuralieva, A. M.; Hasegawa, A.; Nakajima, J.; Matsuzawa, T.; Okada, T.

    2009-12-01

    Complicated geologic and tectonic settings generate high seismic and volcanic activities in Japan. Both deep and shallow earthquakes occur in this region beneath the sea and the land area. Shallow seismicity in the upper plates in Japan is restricted to the upper ~20 km in the crust and has a strong lateral variation: the lower limit of the seismicity is shallow beneath volcanoes and deep between them. Seismicity is associated with thermal structure, namely inversely related to temperature (heat flow, thermal gradient). Reliable tomographic imaging of the crust and precise hypocenter distribution may shed light on compelling reasons of the lateral variations in the thickness of the seismogenic layer and in the crustal strength. Study area is covered densely by the entire Japan integrated seismic observation network. Tomography method by Zhao et al. (JGR, 1992) has been applied to the arrival time data from local earthquakes down to 50 km depth located beneath the land area during 2001-2009. The study area is divided into partially (1°) overlapped 4°x4° size 7 sub-areas for calculation. The 1-D model JMA2001 is taken as an initial model. The Conrad and Moho discontinuities (Katsumata, 2008) are taken into account. Grid spacing is 0.2° in horizontal directions and 5 km in depth. In order to avoid a bias in the result due to the clusters of events and get even distribution of seismicity, earthquake selection is done. Numbers of events, stations and grid nodes vary from sub-area to sub-area. Obtained 3D velocity structure images are in agreement with the results of previous tomography studies. Our results show different structure patterns between northeast and southwest Japan. Predominant low-velocity zones are visible just beneath or around volcanic front. Earthquakes within the upper crust are located in high-velocity areas. Earthquakes were relocated using obtained 3D P- and S-wave velocity models. Depth differences between initial and relocated events are

  14. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality and Trophic Status in Sembrong Reservoir, Johor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intan Najla Syed Hashim, Syarifah; Hidayah Abu Talib, Siti; Salleh Abustan, Muhammad

    2018-03-01

    A study of spatial and temporal variations on water quality and trophic status was conducted to determine the temporal (average reading by month) and spatial variations of water quality in Sembrong reservoir and to evaluate the trophic status of the reservoir. Water samples were collected once a month from November 2016 to June 2017 in seventeen (17) sampling stations at Sembrong Reservoir. Results obtained on the concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature, pH and secchi depth had no significant differences compared to Total Phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll-a. The water level has significantly decreased the value of the water temperature, pH and TP. The water quality of Sembrong reservoir is classified in Class II which is suitable for recreational uses and required conventional treatment while TSI indicates that sembrong reservoir was in lower boundary of classical eutrophic (TSI > 50).

  15. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality and Trophic Status in Sembrong Reservoir, Johor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashim Syarifah Intan Najla Syed

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A study of spatial and temporal variations on water quality and trophic status was conducted to determine the temporal (average reading by month and spatial variations of water quality in Sembrong reservoir and to evaluate the trophic status of the reservoir. Water samples were collected once a month from November 2016 to June 2017 in seventeen (17 sampling stations at Sembrong Reservoir. Results obtained on the concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO, water temperature, pH and secchi depth had no significant differences compared to Total Phosphorus (TP and chlorophyll-a. The water level has significantly decreased the value of the water temperature, pH and TP. The water quality of Sembrong reservoir is classified in Class II which is suitable for recreational uses and required conventional treatment while TSI indicates that sembrong reservoir was in lower boundary of classical eutrophic (TSI > 50.

  16. Modelling of the education quality of a high schools in Sumenep Regency using spatial structural equation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anekawati, Anik; Widjanarko Otok, Bambang; Purhadi; Sutikno

    2017-09-01

    In some cases, education research often involves the latent variables that have a causal relationship as well as a spatial effect. Therefore, it requires a statistical analysis technique called spatial structural equation modelling (spatial SEM). In this research, a spatial SEM was developed to model the quality of education in high schools in Sumenep Regency. This model was improved after the evaluation of an outer and inner model of the model scheme centroid, factor and path since some indicators were not valid. The path scheme model showed better results compared to the other schemes since all of its indicators were valid and its value of R-square increased. Furthermore, only the model of path scheme was tested for spatial effects. The result of the identification test of spatial effects on the inner model using a robust Lagrange multiplier test (using queen contiguity) showed that the education quality model leads to a spatial autoregressive model (SAR in SEM) with a significance level α of 5%, while the model of school infrastructure has no significant spatial effects. The improved model of SAR in SEM, the R2 value obtained was 47.33%, so that it is clear that data variation can be explained by the model of SAR in SEM for the quality of education in high schools.

  17. Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syversveen, Anne Randi

    1997-12-31

    The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.

  18. Theoretical aspects of spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized theoretical aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter provides up-to-date coverage of particle association measures that underpin the theoretical properties of recently developed random set methods in space and time otherwise known as the class of probability hypothesis density framework (PHD filters). The second chapter gives an overview of recent advances in Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In particular, the chapter explains how one may extend classical sequential Monte Carlo methods for filtering and static inference problems to high dimensions and big-data applications. The third chapter presents an overview of generalized families of processes that extend the class of Gaussian process models to heavy-tailed families known as alph...

  19. Two-dimensional empirical mode decomposition of heavy metal spatial variation in agricultural soils, Southeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunfa; Huang, Jingyi; Minasny, Budiman; Zhu, Hao

    2017-03-01

    The distribution of heavy metals in agricultural soils is affected by various anthropogenic activities and environmental factors occurring at different spatial scales. This paper introduced the two-dimensional empirical mode decomposition (2D-EMD) to separate the spatial variability in soil heavy metals into different scales. Geostatistics and multivariate analysis were also utilized to quantify their spatial structure and identify their potential influencing factors. The study was conducted in an arable land in southeastern China where 260 surface soil samples were collected and measured for total contents of cadmium (Cd total ), mercury (Hg total ), and sulfur (TS); pH; and soil organic carbon content (SOC). The results showed that both Cd total and Hg total had high coefficients of variation. The overall variation in all five soil variables was separated into three intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and spatial residues. All three IMFs had short-range spatial correlations (1-8 km), while the spatial residues had moderate-large spatial ranges (13-39 km). IMF1 of Cd total was strongly correlated with IMF1 of SOC and TS, which was consistent with the principal component analysis. This indicated that IMF1 of Cd total represented local variations which were influenced by agricultural activities. IMFs of Hg total showed clustered distributions in the study area, with IMF1 and IMF2 of Hg total correlated in one principal component, and IMF3 of Hg total and IMF3 of soil pH in another component. This indicated that all three IMFs of Hg total might be influenced by different industrial activities or different pathways of the same industrial activities. The residues of Cd total and Hg total , representing the regional trends, only accounted for 26% of the total variance, whereas IMF1 contributed about half of the total variance. It can be concluded that agricultural activities and industrial activities were the dominant contributors of the overall variations in Cd total and

  20. New Constraints on Spatial Variations of the Fine Structure Constant from Clusters of Galaxies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan De Martino

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We have constrained the spatial variation of the fine structure constant using multi-frequency measurements of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect of 618 X-ray selected clusters. Although our results are not competitive with the ones from quasar absorption lines, we improved by a factor 10 and ∼2.5 previous results from Cosmic Microwave Background power spectrum and from galaxy clusters, respectively.

  1. Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long-distance migratory bird

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, CA; Robinson, RA; Clark, JA; Gill, JA

    2010-01-01

    Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non-breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’...

  2. Spatial variations of shallow and deep soil moisture in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Yang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture in deep soil layers is an important relatively stable water resource for vegetation growth in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Characterizing the spatial variations of deep soil moisture with respect to the topographic conditions has significant importance for vegetation restoration. In this study, we focused on analyzing the spatial variations and factors influencing soil moisture content (SMC in shallow (0–2 m and deep (2–8 m soil layers, based on soil moisture observations in the Longtan watershed, Dingxi, Gansu province. The vegetation type of each sampling site for each comparison is same and varies by different positions, gradients, or aspects. The following discoveries were captured: (1 in comparison with shallow SMC, slope position and slope aspect may affect shallow soil moisture more than deep layers, while slope gradient affects both shallow and deep soil moisture significantly. This indicates that a great difference in deep soil hydrological processes between shallow and deep soil moisture remains that can be attributed to the introduced vegetation and topography. (2 A clear negative relationship exists between vegetation growth condition and deep soil moisture, which indicates that plants under different growing conditions may differ in consuming soil moisture, thus causing higher spatial variations in deep soil moisture. (3 The dynamic role of slope position and slope aspect on deep soil moisture has been changed due to large-scale plantation in semi-arid environment. Consequently, vegetation growth conditions and slope gradients may become the key factors dominating the spatial variations in deep soil moisture.

  3. Spatial variation in the relationship between performance and metabolic rate in wild juvenile Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertsen, Grethe; Armstrong, John D; Nislow, Keith H; Herfindal, Ivar; McKelvey, Simon; Einum, Sigurd

    2014-07-01

    Maintenance of metabolic rate (MR, the energy cost of self-maintenance) is linked to behavioural traits and fitness and varies substantially within populations. Despite having received much attention, the causes and consequences of this variation remain obscure. Theoretically, such within-population variation in fitness-related traits can be maintained by environmental heterogeneity in selection patterns, but for MR, this has rarely been tested in nature. Here, we experimentally test whether the relationship between MR and performance can vary spatially by assessing survival, growth rate and movement of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) juveniles from 10 family groups differing in MR (measured as egg metabolism) that were stocked in parallel across 10 tributaries of a single watershed. The relationship between MR and relative survival and growth rate varied significantly among tributaries. Specifically, the effect of MR ranged from negative to positive for relative survival, whereas it was negative for growth rate. The association between MR and movement was positive and did not vary significantly among tributaries. These results are consistent with a fitness cost of traits associated with behavioural dominance that varies across relatively small spatial scales (within a single watershed). More generally, our results support the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions contributes to maintain within-population variation in fitness-related traits, such as MR. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  4. Spatial and environmental variation in phyllostomid bat (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae distribution in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arriaga–Flores, J. C.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Species’ spatial distribution patterns allow us to understand the establishment of different biotic components in different environmental conditions. This study analyzes the spatial distribution of the Phyllostomidae family in Mexico to identify groups of species that occur in similar sites, the environmental conditions associated with species distribution, and the percent of overlap with human–modified areas. The results suggest six groups of sites with particular species composition. The spatial variation in richness pattern was associated with species tolerance to environmental conditions, such as minimum temperature and tree cover. The convergence between species distribution and modified areas varied per species feeding guild. Insectivorous and nectarivorous bats were sensitive species because they occurred in narrow environmental conditions and their distributions overlapped with areas modified by human activities. The approach implemented here analyzes regional species distributions and estimates their environmental requirements, contributing to the development of optimal conservation strategies for susceptible bat species.

  5. Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina

    2017-12-07

    The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

  6. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  7. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  8. The Role of Visuo-Spatial Abilities in Recall of Spatial Descriptions: A Mediation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghetti, Chiara; De Beni, Rossana; Pazzaglia, Francesca; Gyselinck, Valerie

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates how visuo-spatial abilities (such as mental rotation--MR--and visuo-spatial working memory--VSWM--) work together to influence the recall of environmental descriptions. We tested a mediation model in which VSWM was assumed to mediate the relationship between MR and spatial text recall. First, 120 participants were…

  9. Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Hua-Peng; Khu, Soon-Thiam; Yu, Xiang-Ying

    2010-09-15

    The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH(3)-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Ontogenetic study of the supraorbital region in modern humans: a longitudinal test of the spatial model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiscella, Gabriela N; Smith, Fred H

    2006-06-01

    The structural significance of the hominid supraorbital torus and its morphological variation have always been a controversial topic in physical anthropology. Understanding the function of browridge variation in living and fossil human populations is relevant to questions of human evolution. This study utilizes radiograph images to evaluate the spatial model in modern humans during ontogeny. This structural model attributes variation in the supraorbital region to the positional relationship between the neurocranium and the orbits. The relationship between measurements of the antero-posterior supraorbital length and the factors specified in the spatial model were assessed by correlation and partial correlation analyses. Growth rates were also examined to study ontogenetic trajectories and infer aspects of developmental relationships between critical variables. Results agree with previous research supporting the existence of spatial influences between the neural and orbital-upper facial regions on browridge length during ontogeny.

  11. A novel spatial performance metric for robust pattern optimization of distributed hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stisen, S.; Demirel, C.; Koch, J.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of performance is an integral part of model development and calibration as well as it is of paramount importance when communicating modelling results to stakeholders and the scientific community. There exists a comprehensive and well tested toolbox of metrics to assess temporal model performance in the hydrological modelling community. On the contrary, the experience to evaluate spatial performance is not corresponding to the grand availability of spatial observations readily available and to the sophisticate model codes simulating the spatial variability of complex hydrological processes. This study aims at making a contribution towards advancing spatial pattern oriented model evaluation for distributed hydrological models. This is achieved by introducing a novel spatial performance metric which provides robust pattern performance during model calibration. The promoted SPAtial EFficiency (spaef) metric reflects three equally weighted components: correlation, coefficient of variation and histogram overlap. This multi-component approach is necessary in order to adequately compare spatial patterns. spaef, its three components individually and two alternative spatial performance metrics, i.e. connectivity analysis and fractions skill score, are tested in a spatial pattern oriented model calibration of a catchment model in Denmark. The calibration is constrained by a remote sensing based spatial pattern of evapotranspiration and discharge timeseries at two stations. Our results stress that stand-alone metrics tend to fail to provide holistic pattern information to the optimizer which underlines the importance of multi-component metrics. The three spaef components are independent which allows them to complement each other in a meaningful way. This study promotes the use of bias insensitive metrics which allow comparing variables which are related but may differ in unit in order to optimally exploit spatial observations made available by remote sensing

  12. Spatial and seasonal variation in heavy metals in interstitial water of salt marsh soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otero, X.L.; Macias, Felipe

    2002-12-01

    Soil colonization by plants affected spatial and seasonal variation in heavy metals. - The composition of interstitial water collected from a salt marsh in NW Spain showed clear seasonal and spatial variations associated with redox cycles of Fe and S. In the summer, salinity increased in all soils as a consequence of the increase in evapotranspiration. The pH and concentrations of heavy metals also differed with season, but not all environments showed the same variations. Soils not colonized by plants had the highest pH and lowest heavy metal concentrations in the summer. These results support the idea that higher temperatures lead to an increase in the activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria, which in turn leads to an increase in alkalinity and concentration of sulfides in the water. Trace metals tend to precipitate with sulfides under these conditions and are removed from the interstitial water. In contrast, in the soils colonized by Spartina maritima, the oxidation of metal sulfides during the summer led to a decrease in pH and an increase in the metal concentrations in the interstitial water. The results obtained concur with those found for seasonal variations in metal sulfides in soils from the same salt marsh.

  13. Spatial Situation Models and Text Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haenggi, Dieter; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Reports findings from three experiments designed to show how readers inferred spatial information relevant to a story character's movements through a previously memorized layout of a fictional building. Examines how inference measures are related to spatial imagery. (HB)

  14. A national fine spatial scale land-use regression model for ozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerckhoffs, Jules|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411260502; Wang, Meng|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/345480279; Meliefste, Kees; Malmqvist, Ebba; Fischer, Paul; Janssen, Nicole A H; Beelen, Rob|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/30483100X; Hoek, Gerard|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069553475

    Uncertainty about health effects of long-term ozone exposure remains. Land use regression (LUR) models have been used successfully for modeling fine scale spatial variation of primary pollutants but very limited for ozone. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of developing a national LUR

  15. Modeling hydraulic conductivity of a complex confining layer at various spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1996-01-01

    The spatial variation of the hydraulic conductivity of a complex confining layer in the Netherlands was modelled on four scales: sediment cores, numerical model blocks, and local and regional scales. Two stochastic methods were combined: conditional simulation of texture classes to obtain

  16. Spatial variation in spoil and vegetative characteristics of pastures on reclaimed surface mined land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teutsch, C.D.; Collins, M.; Ditsch, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    Kentucky has large areas of reclaimed surface mined land that could provide grazing for livestock. Research is needed to determine optimal stocking densities and to evaluate the sustainability of such grazing systems for this region. A long-term grazing study was initiated in 1997 on 151 ha of reclaimed land near Chavies, KY to determine spatial and temporal variation with stocking densities of 0, 0.28, 0.42, or 0.83 beef cow-calf units/ha. Global Positioning System and GIS technologies were used to establish pasture boundaries, locate permanent sampling markers at a density of 1 per 0.4 ha, and interpolate maps of physical, spoil, and vegetable pasture characteristics. Herbage and spoil samples were collected around the permanent markers in May of 1997. Stepwise regression was used to determine factors affecting the vegetative characteristics of the sites. Biomass density ranged from 0 to 2500 kg/ha with a mean of 570 kg/ha. Factors affecting biomass included legume and weed proportions in the sward, grazing activity, soil potassium, elevation, and potential acidity, cumulatively accounting for 32% of the variation. Ground cover ranged from 10 to 100% with an average of 74%. Soil pH, potassium, and grass in the sward accounted for 14% of the variation in ground cover. Legumes made up 0 to 61% of the sward with a mean of 13% over the pasture area. Variables affecting the amount of legume in the sward included biomass density, slope, elevation, pH, and stocking density, together accounting for 21% of the variation. Spatial variation in the physical, spoil, and vegetative characteristics of the pastures was large. Overall, regression accounted for a limited amount of the variation in the vegetative characteristics of the site indicating that other important variables exist

  17. Spectral Modelling for Spatial Network Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nourian, P.; Rezvani, S.; Sariyildiz, I.S.; van der Hoeven, F.D.; Attar, Ramtin; Chronis, Angelos; Hanna, Sean; Turrin, Michela

    2016-01-01

    Spatial Networks represent the connectivity structure between units of space as a weighted graph whose links are weighted as to the strength of connections. In case of urban spatial networks, the units of space correspond closely to streets and in architectural spatial networks the units correspond

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  19. Spatial and temporal variation of particulate matter characteristics within office buildings - The OFFICAIR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szigeti, Tamás; Dunster, Christina; Cattaneo, Andrea; Spinazzè, Andrea; Mandin, Corinne; Le Ponner, Eline; de Oliveira Fernandes, Eduardo; Ventura, Gabriela; Saraga, Dikaia E; Sakellaris, Ioannis A; de Kluizenaar, Yvonne; Cornelissen, Eric; Bartzis, John G; Kelly, Frank J

    2017-06-01

    In the frame of the OFFICAIR project, office buildings were investigated across Europe to assess how the office workers are exposed to different particulate matter (PM) characteristics (i.e. PM 2.5 mass concentration, particulate oxidative potential (OP) based on ascorbate and reduced glutathione depletion, trace element concentration and total particle number concentration (PNC)) within the buildings. Two offices per building were investigated during the working hours (5 consecutive days; 8h per day) in two campaigns. Differences were observed for all parameters across the office buildings. Our results indicate that the monitoring of the PM 2.5 mass concentration in different offices within a building might not reflect the spatial variation of the health relevant PM characteristics such as particulate OP or the concentration of certain trace elements (e.g., Cu, Fe), since larger differences were apparent within a building for these parameters compared to that obtained for the PM 2.5 mass concentration in many cases. The temporal variation was larger for almost all PM characteristics (except for the concentration of Mn) than the spatial differences within the office buildings. These findings indicate that repeated or long-term monitoring campaigns are necessary to have information about the temporal variation of the PM characteristics. However, spatial variation in exposure levels within an office building may cause substantial differences in total exposure in the long term. We did not find strong associations between the investigated indoor activities such as printing or windows opening and the PNC values. This might be caused by the large number of factors affecting PNC indoors and outdoors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Spatial Data Web Services Pricing Model Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozmus, L.; Erkek, B.; Colak, S.; Cankurt, I.; Bakıcı, S.

    2013-08-01

    most important law with related NSDI is the establishment of General Directorate of Geographic Information System under the Ministry of Environment and Urbanism. due to; to do or to have do works and activities with related to the establishment of National Geographic Information Systems (NGIS), usage of NGIS and improvements of NGIS. Outputs of these projects are served to not only public administration but also to Turkish society. Today for example, TAKBIS data (cadastre services) are shared more than 50 institutions by Web services, Tusaga-Aktif system has more than 3800 users who are having real-time GPS data correction, Orthophoto WMS services has been started for two years as a charge of free. Today there is great discussion about data pricing among the institutions. Some of them think that the pricing is storage of the data. Some of them think that the pricing is value of data itself. There is no certain rule about pricing. On this paper firstly, pricing of data storage and later on spatial data pricing models in different countries are investigated to improve institutional understanding in Turkey.

  1. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-01-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  2. Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen-Smith, Norman

    2011-07-01

    1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and

  3. Temporal-spatial variation of DOC concentration, UV absorbance and the flux estimation in the Lower Dagu River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Min; Kong, Fanlong; Li, Yue; Kong, Fanting

    2017-12-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an important component for both carbon cycle and energy balance. The concentration, UV absorbance, and export flux of DOC in the natural environment dominate many important transport processes. To better understand the temporal and spatial variation of DOC, 7 sites along the Lower Dagu River were chosen to conduct a comprehensive measurement from March 2013 to February 2014. Specifically, water samples were collected from the Lower Dagu River between the 26th and 29th of every month during the experimental period. The DOC concentration (CDOC) and UV absorbance were analyzed using a total organic carbon analyzer and the ultraviolet-visible absorption spectrum, and the DOC export flux was estimated with a simple empirical model. The results showed that the CDOC of the Lower Dagu River varied from 1.32 to 12.56 mg/L, consistent with global rivers. The CDOC and UV absorbance showed significant spatial variation in the Dagu River during the experiential period because of the upstream natural processes and human activities in the watershed. The spatial variation is mainly due to dam or reservoir constructions, riverside ecological environment changes, and non-point source or wastewater discharge. The seasonal variation of CDOC was mainly related to the source of water DOC, river runoff, and temperature, and the UV absorbance and humification degree of DOC had no obvious differences among months ( PDOC export flux varied from 1.6 to 3.76 × 105 g C/km2/yr in a complete hydrological year, significantly lower than the global average. It is worth mentioning that the DOC export flux was mainly concentrated in summer (˜90% of all-year flux in July and August), since the runoff in the Dagu River took place frequently in summer. These observations implied environment change could bring the temporal-spatial variation of DOC and the exports, which would further affect the land-ocean interactions in the Lower Dagu River and the global carbon cycle.

  4. Leaf Trait Variation with Environmental Factors at Different Spatial Scales: A Multilevel Analysis Across a Forest-Steppe Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haijing Shi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In mountain areas, the distribution of plant communities is affected by both regional and microhabitat conditions. The degree to which these different spatial factors contribute to plant communities is not well understood, because few studies have used a uniform sampling methodology to measure trait variation across the range of ecological scales. In this study, a stratified sampling method was used to study community weighted leaf traits and environment factors at different spatial (transect and plot scales. We measured 6 leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf tissue density, leaf thickness, leaf carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus content in 258 communities from 57 sites in 9 transects nested within 3 vegetation zones. These communities are located in the loess hilly and gully area of the Yanhe river watershed. We coupled climatic factors at the transect scale with topographic and edaphic factors at the plot scale using multilevel regression modeling to analyze the trait variation associated with spatial scales. At the transect scale, the mean annual rainfall showed a highly significant positive effect on the leaf nitrogen concentration (LNC (p < 0.01, while it had a highly significant negative effect on leaf thickness (LT and leaf tissue density (LTD (p < 0.001 and a significant negative effect on leaf carbon concentration (LCC (p < 0.05, explaining 10.91%, 36.08%, 57.25% and 66.01% of LTD, LT, LCC and LNC variation at transect scale respectively. At a plot scale, the slope aspect showed a highly significant positive effect on specific leaf area (SLA and LNC but a highly significant negative effect on LT and LTD. The soil water content had a significant negative effect on LT (p < 0.05 and LTD (p < 0.001 while soil organic matter showed a positive effect on SLA (p < 0.001 and LNC (p < 0.01. Totally, plot scale variables explained 7.28%, 43.60%, 46.43%, 75.39% and 81.17% of LCC, LT, LNC, LTD and SLA variation. The elevation showed positive effect

  5. Spatial regression-based model specifications for exogenous and endogenous spatial interaction

    OpenAIRE

    Manfred M Fischer; James P. LeSage

    2014-01-01

    Spatial interaction models represent a class of models that are used for modelling origin-destination flow data. The focus of this paper is on the log-normal version of the model. In this context, we consider spatial econometric specifications that can be used to accommodate two types of dependence scenarios, one involving endogenous interaction and the other exogenous interaction. These model specifications replace the conventional assumption of independence between origin-destination flows ...

  6. Potential Mechanisms Driving Population Variation in Spatial Memory and the Hippocampus in Food-caching Chickadees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croston, Rebecca; Branch, Carrie L; Kozlovsky, Dovid Y; Roth, Timothy C; LaDage, Lara D; Freas, Cody A; Pravosudov, Vladimir V

    2015-09-01

    Harsh environments and severe winters have been hypothesized to favor improvement of the cognitive abilities necessary for successful foraging. Geographic variation in winter climate, then, is likely associated with differences in selection pressures on cognitive ability, which could lead to evolutionary changes in cognition and its neural mechanisms, assuming that variation in these traits is heritable. Here, we focus on two species of food-caching chickadees (genus Poecile), which rely on stored food for survival over winter and require the use of spatial memory to recover their stores. These species also exhibit extensive climate-related population level variation in spatial memory and the hippocampus, including volume, the total number and size of neurons, and adults' rates of neurogenesis. Such variation could be driven by several mechanisms within the context of natural selection, including independent, population-specific selection (local adaptation), environment experience-based plasticity, developmental differences, and/or epigenetic differences. Extensive data on cognition, brain morphology, and behavior in multiple populations of these two species of chickadees along longitudinal, latitudinal, and elevational gradients in winter climate are most consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection drives the evolution of local adaptations associated with spatial memory differences among populations. Conversely, there is little support for the hypotheses that environment-induced plasticity or developmental differences are the main causes of population differences across climatic gradients. Available data on epigenetic modifications of memory ability are also inconsistent with the observed patterns of population variation, with birds living in more stressful and harsher environments having better spatial memory associated with a larger hippocampus and a larger number of hippocampal neurons. Overall, the existing data are most consistent with the

  7. Spatial variation of peat soil properties in the oil-producing region of northeastern Sakhalin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipatov, D. N.; Shcheglov, A. I.; Manakhov, D. V.; Zavgorodnyaya, Yu. A.; Rozanova, M. S.; Brekhov, P. T.

    2017-07-01

    Morphology and properties of medium-deep oligotrophic peat, oligotrophic peat gley, pyrogenic oligotrophic peat gley, and peat gley soils on subshrub-cotton grass-sphagnum bogs and in swampy larch forests of northeastern Sakhalin have been studied. Variation in the thickness and reserves of litters in the studied bog and forest biogeocenoses has been analyzed. The profile distribution and spatial variability of moisture, density, ash, and pHKCl in separate groups of peat soils have been described. The content and spatial variability of petroleum hydrocarbons have been considered in relation to the accumulation of natural bitumoids by peat soils and the technogenic pressing in the oil-producing region. Variation of each parameter at different distances (10, 50, and 1000 m) has been estimated using a hierarchical sampling scheme. The spatial conjugation of soil parameters has been studied by factor analysis using the principal components method and Spearman correlation coefficients. Regression equations have been proposed to describe relationships of ash content with soil density and content of petroleum hydrocarbons in peat horizons.

  8. Spatial air pollution modelling for a West-African town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirak Zenebe Gebreab

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use regression (LUR modelling is a common approach used in European and Northern American epidemiological studies to assess urban and traffic related air pollution exposures. Studies applying LUR in Africa are lacking. A need exists to understand if this approach holds for an African setting, where urban features, pollutant exposures and data availability differ considerably from other continents. We developed a parsimonious regression model based on 48-hour nitrogen dioxide (NO2 concentrations measured at 40 sites in Kaédi, a medium sized West-African town, and variables generated in a geographic information system (GIS. Road variables and settlement land use characteristics were found to be important predictors of 48-hour NO2 concentration in the model. About 68% of concentration variability in the town was explained by the model. The model was internally validated by leave-one-out cross-validation and it was found to perform moderately well. Furthermore, its parameters were robust to sampling variation. We applied the model at 100 m pixels to create a map describing the broad spatial pattern of NO2 across Kaédi. In this research, we demonstrated the potential for LUR as a valid, cost-effective approach for air pollution modelling and mapping in an African town. If the methodology were to be adopted by environmental and public health authorities in these regions, it could provide a quick assessment of the local air pollution burden and potentially support air pollution policies and guidelines.

  9. Spatial and temporal variation in snow accumulation in the Central Spanish Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Moreno, I.; Beguería, S.; García-Ruiz, J. M.

    2003-04-01

    Water stored in winter snowpack represents a valuable resource in mountainous regions. The distribution of the snow determines the availability of water resources during snowmelt period, as well as the development of the economy based on winter sports. This work analyses the main factors that explain the variation in snow accumulation in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Data about evolution of snowpack is provided by the measurement of 106 sticks installed in the study area from 1985. The snow depth is measured in two moments of the year, at the beginning of March and at the end of April or beginning of May. Snow depth, of both measurements moments, has been mapped using linear regression between snow depth and different topographic and geographic variables derived from the digital terrain model. In order to improve the estimation interpolated residuals values have been subtracted. The variability of the interannual snow distribution has been analysed with a factorial analysis in order to obtain different annual patterns of snowpack distribution. Relation between the dominant winter weather-type and the different patterns, provided by the factorial analysis, has been studied. The weather-type classification has been obtained using the Jenkinson and Collison system based on daily series of sea level atmospheric pressure measured around the Iberian Peninsula with a 5º x 10º scale. Thus, it is possible to know the influence of the prevailing winter synoptic situations in the snowpack distribution. The results show that topographic and geographic variables have a high capacity to explain the spatial distribution of the average snow cover during the study period. Nevertheless, the annual snow accumulation is the result of the arrival of frontal disturbances that come from different directions. By that, it is complex to relate the different snow distribution patterns to the main winter synoptic conditions of each year.

  10. Spatial variations in estimated chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution in working populations: A simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cloutier-Fisher Denise

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs. Results Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were

  11. Panchromatic SED modelling of spatially resolved galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Daniel J. B.; Hayward, Christopher C.

    2018-05-01

    We test the efficacy of the energy-balance spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code MAGPHYS for recovering the spatially resolved properties of a simulated isolated disc galaxy, for which it was not designed. We perform 226 950 MAGPHYS SED fits to regions between 0.2 and 25 kpc in size across the galaxy's disc, viewed from three different sight-lines, to probe how well MAGPHYS can recover key galaxy properties based on 21 bands of UV-far-infrared model photometry. MAGPHYS yields statistically acceptable fits to >99 per cent of the pixels within the r-band effective radius and between 59 and 77 percent of pixels within 20 kpc of the nucleus. MAGPHYS is able to recover the distribution of stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), specific SFR, dust luminosity, dust mass, and V-band attenuation reasonably well, especially when the pixel size is ≳ 1 kpc, whereas non-standard outputs (stellar metallicity and mass-weighted age) are recovered less well. Accurate recovery is more challenging in the smallest sub-regions of the disc (pixel scale ≲ 1 kpc), where the energy balance criterion becomes increasingly incorrect. Estimating integrated galaxy properties by summing the recovered pixel values, the true integrated values of all parameters considered except metallicity and age are well recovered at all spatial resolutions, ranging from 0.2 kpc to integrating across the disc, albeit with some evidence for resolution-dependent biases. These results must be considered when attempting to analyse the structure of real galaxies with actual observational data, for which the `ground truth' is unknown.

  12. Spatial and temporal variation of stable isotopes in precipitation across Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh Unwala, K.; Sanchez-Murillo, R.; Esquivel-Hernandez, G.; Brooks, E. S.; Boll, J.; Alfaro-Solis, R.; Valdes-Gonzalez, J.

    2013-12-01

    The geographic location of Costa Rica on the Central American Isthmus creates unique mountainous microclimate systems across the country that receive moisture inputs directly from the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. These microclimate systems offer an exceptional opportunity to study isotopic variations in precipitation over the Central American continental divide. Here, we present a spatial and temporal analysis of historic Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) records and current monitoring efforts. GNIP Sampling campaigns were mainly comprised of monthly-integrated samples during intermittent years from 1990 to 2005. Ongoing monitoring includes three distinct microclimate locations along the continental divide. Samples were grouped into four main regions: Nicoya Peninsula (δ2H = 6.65δ18O-0.13; r2=0.86); Pacific Coast (δ2H = 7.60δ18O+7.95; r2=0.99); Caribbean Slope (δ2H = 6.97δ18O+4.97; r2=0.97); and Central Valley (δ2H = 7.94δ18O+10.38; r2=0.98). The overall meteoric water line for Costa Rica can be defined as δ2H = 7.61δ18O+7.40 (r2=0.98). The regression of precipitation amount with annual arithmetic means in samples from all four regions yields a slope of -1.6 ‰ δ18O per 100 mm of rain (r2 = 0.57), which corresponds with a temperature effect of -0.37 ‰ δ18O/°C. A strong correlation (r2=0.77) of -2.0 ‰ δ18O per km of elevation was found. Samples within the Nicoya Peninsula and Caribbean lowlands appear to be dominated by evaporation enrichment, especially during the dry months (January-April), likely resulting from small precipitation amounts. In the inter-mountainous region of the Central Valley and Pacific slope, complex moisture recycling processes may dominate isotopic variations. Generally, isotopic values tend to be more depleted as the rainy season progresses over the year (May-October). HYSPLIT back trajectory analyses indicate that enriched isotopic compositions are related to central Caribbean parental moisture

  13. Spatial variations in immediate greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions and resulting radiative forcing from wildfires in interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Heping; Dahal, Devendra; Jin, Suming; Li, Shuang; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2016-01-01

    Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001–2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m−2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m−2. The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO2) to 0.16 Tg (N2O). When converted to equivalent CO2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO2 was organic carbon (−583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO2, CH4, and N2O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m−2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m−2. This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

  14. Unemployment estimation: Spatial point referenced methods and models

    KAUST Repository

    Pereira, Soraia

    2017-06-26

    Portuguese Labor force survey, from 4th quarter of 2014 onwards, started geo-referencing the sampling units, namely the dwellings in which the surveys are carried. This opens new possibilities in analysing and estimating unemployment and its spatial distribution across any region. The labor force survey choose, according to an preestablished sampling criteria, a certain number of dwellings across the nation and survey the number of unemployed in these dwellings. Based on this survey, the National Statistical Institute of Portugal presently uses direct estimation methods to estimate the national unemployment figures. Recently, there has been increased interest in estimating these figures in smaller areas. Direct estimation methods, due to reduced sampling sizes in small areas, tend to produce fairly large sampling variations therefore model based methods, which tend to

  15. Resource competition and coexistence in heterogeneous metacommunities: many-species coexistence is unlikely to be facilitated by spatial variation in resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald R

    2013-01-01

    There is little debate about the potential of environmental heterogeneity to facilitate species diversity. However, attempts to show the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and diversity empirically have given mixed results. One reason for this may be the failure to consider how species respond to the factor in the environment that varies. Most models of the heterogeneity-diversity relationship assume heterogeneity in non-resource environmental factors. These models show the potential for spatial heterogeneity to promote many-species coexistence via mainly the spatial storage effect. Here, I present a model of species competition under spatial heterogeneity and resource factors. This model allows for the stable coexistence of only two species. Partitioning the model to quantify the contributions of variation-dependent coexistence mechanisms shows contributions from only one mechanism, growth-density covariance. More notably, it shows the lack of potential for any contribution from the spatial storage effect, the only mechanism that can facilitate stable many-species coexistence. This happens because the spatial storage effect measures the contribution of different species to specializing on different parts of the gradient of the heterogeneous factor. Under simple models of resource competition, in which all species grow best at high resource levels, such specialization is impossible. This analysis suggests that, in the absence of additional mechanisms, spatial heterogeneity in a single resource is unlikely to facilitate many-species coexistence and, more generally, that when evaluating the relationship between heterogeneity and diversity, a distinction should be made between resource and non-resource factors.

  16. Spatial Variations of Soil Gas Geochemistry in the Tangshan Area of Northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The concentrations of Hg, Rn, H2, He and CO2 in soil gases at 756 sites were measured in the Tangshan area where Ms 7.8 earthquake occurred in 1976 and is characterized by complex tectonic structures and high seismic hazard. The results showed that, spatial variations of the gaseous anomalies, especially hydrogen and helium have spatial congruence along the tectonic lines, which can be attributed to their deep sources and the migration paths formed by the faults. A better congruence of radon and carbon dioxide is highlighted which indicates that carbon dioxide acts as the carrier gas for radon in this area. Two geochemical anomaly zones of soil gas were found in the area wherein all the studied gases exhibited anomalies or high values, related to the faults and earthquakes.

  17. Spatial variations of b-values in the coastal area of Guangdong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Pengxiang; Xia, Shaohong; Sun, Jinlong; Cao, Jinghe; Xu, Huilong; Zhao, Fang; Chen, Chuanxu

    2018-02-01

    We used earthquake catalogs recorded by Guangdong Seismological Network from 2008 to 2014 to resolve the spatial variations of b-values in the coastal area of Guangdong, particularly in three key research areas (Yangjiang, Heyuan, and offshore Nanao Island) with strong seismicity. Our results revealed that b-values exhibited significant spatial variations, and zones with low b-values could indicate the most likely seismogenic area of large earthquakes. We observed three clear low b-value patches in the offshore Nanao Island. We found a distinct high b-value peak at the depth of 11 km and two minimum peaks at about 14 and 7-8 km in the Yangjiang area. The overall b-values generally decrease with depth in the Heyuan area. The spatial variations of b-values reflect tectonic anomalies; that is, the `low-high-low' distribution of b-values in the offshore Nanao Island and the Yangjiang area may indicate the anomaly of the crustal structure with a weak layer. The b-values of reservoir-induced seismicity are obviously lower than that induced by tectonism. This finding indicates that the reservoir area is generally at high stress state under the condition of high pore pressure. We inferred that large earthquakes might be prone to occur at 10-12 km depth in the offshore Nanao Island, at 12-15 km depth in the Yangjiang area, and at the lower part of the seismic activity zone in the Heyuan area. Moreover, the upstream area of the Xinfengjiang reservoir is the most likely area of future large earthquakes in the Heyuan area.

  18. Mathematical Modeling of spatial disease variables by Spatial Fuzzy Logic for Spatial Decision Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platz, M.; Rapp, J.; Groessler, M.; Niehaus, E.; Babu, A.; Soman, B.

    2014-11-01

    A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) provides support for decision makers and should not be viewed as replacing human intelligence with machines. Therefore it is reasonable that decision makers are able to use a feature to analyze the provided spatial decision support in detail to crosscheck the digital support of the SDSS with their own expertise. Spatial decision support is based on risk and resource maps in a Geographic Information System (GIS) with relevant layers e.g. environmental, health and socio-economic data. Spatial fuzzy logic allows the representation of spatial properties with a value of truth in the range between 0 and 1. Decision makers can refer to the visualization of the spatial truth of single risk variables of a disease. Spatial fuzzy logic rules that support the allocation of limited resources according to risk can be evaluated with measure theory on topological spaces, which allows to visualize the applicability of this rules as well in a map. Our paper is based on the concept of a spatial fuzzy logic on topological spaces that contributes to the development of an adaptive Early Warning And Response System (EWARS) providing decision support for the current or future spatial distribution of a disease. It supports the decision maker in testing interventions based on available resources and apply risk mitigation strategies and provide guidance tailored to the geo-location of the user via mobile devices. The software component of the system would be based on open source software and the software developed during this project will also be in the open source domain, so that an open community can build on the results and tailor further work to regional or international requirements and constraints. A freely available EWARS Spatial Fuzzy Logic Demo was developed wich enables a user to visualize risk and resource maps based on individual data in several data formats.

  19. Childhood Diarrhea Exhibits Spatiotemporal Variation in Northwest Ethiopia: A SaTScan Spatial Statistical Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muluken Azage

    Full Text Available Childhood diarrhea continues to be a public health problem in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Detecting clusters and trends of childhood diarrhea is important to designing effective interventions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate spatiotemporal clustering and seasonal variability of childhood diarrhea in northwest Ethiopia.Retrospective record review of childhood diarrhea was conducted using quarterly reported data to the district health office for the seven years period beginning July 1, 2007. Thirty three districts were included and geo-coded in this study. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan spatial statistics were employed to identify clusters of childhood diarrhea. Smoothing using a moving average was applied to visualize the trends and seasonal pattern of childhood diarrhea. Statistical analyses were performed using Excel® and SaTScan programs. The maps were plotted using ArcGIS 10.0.Childhood diarrhea in northwest Ethiopia exhibits statistical evidence of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal clustering, with seasonal patterns and decreasing temporal trends observed in the study area. A most likely purely spatial cluster was found in the East Gojjam administrative zone of Gozamin district (LLR = 7123.89, p <0.001. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster was detected in all districts of East Gojjam zone and a few districts of the West Gojjam zone (LLR = 24929.90, p<0.001, appearing from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2011. One high risk period from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2010 (LLR = 9655.86, p = 0.001 was observed in all districts. Peak childhood diarrhea cases showed a seasonal trend, occurring more frequently from January to March and April to June.Childhood diarrhea did not occur at random. It has spatiotemporal variation and seasonal patterns with a decreasing temporal trend. Accounting for the spatiotemporal variation identified in the study areas is advised for the prevention and control of diarrhea.

  20. Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.

    2003-01-01

    This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling

  1. Spatial and temporal variations in lagoon and coastal processes of the southern Brazilian coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Herz, R.

    1980-01-01

    From a collection of information gathered during a long period, through the orbital platforms SKYLAB and LANDSAT, it was possible to establish a method for the systematic study of the dynamical regime of lagoon and marine surface waters, on coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul. The series of multispectral images analyzed by visual and automatic techniques put in evidence spatial and temporal variations reflected in the optical properties of waters, which carry different loads of materials in suspension. The identified patterns offer a synoptic picture of phenomena of great amplitude, from which trends of circulation can be inferred, correlating the atmospheric and hydrologic variables simultaneously to the overflight of orbital vehicles.

  2. Seasonal and spatial variations in settling manganese fluxes in the northern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, T.M.B.; Ramaswamy, V.; Shankar, R.; Ittekkot, V.

    *Corresponding author. Fax: 0091-832-223340. E-mail address: bnair@csnio.ren.nic.in (T.M. Balakrishnan Nair) Deep-Sea Research I 46 (1999) 1827}1839 Seasonal and spatial variations in settling manganese #uxes in the Northern Arabian Sea T.M. Balakrishnan Nair... undergoes bacterially mediated oxidative scavenging throughout the water column, aided by settling particles (Klinkhammer and Bender, 1980; Cowen and Li, 1991; Mo!ett, 1997). The vertical #uxes of particulate Mn are important in the marine environment, as Mn...

  3. Spatial variation in herbicide leaching from a marine clay soil via subsurface drains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulén, Barbro M; Larsbo, Mats; Kreuger, Jenny K; Svanbäck, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Background Subsurface transport via tile drains can significantly contribute to pesticide contamination of surface waters. The spatial variation in subsurface leaching of normally applied herbicides was examined together with phosphorus losses in 24 experimental plots with water sampled flow-proportionally. The study site was a flat, tile-drained area with 60% marine clay in the topsoil in southeast Sweden. The objectives were to quantify the leaching of frequently used herbicides from a tile drained cracking clay soil and to evaluate the variation in leaching within the experimental area and relate this to topsoil management practices (tillage method and structure liming). Results In summer 2009, 0.14, 0.22 and 1.62%, respectively, of simultaneously applied amounts of MCPA, fluroxypyr and clopyralid were leached by heavy rain five days after spraying. In summer 2011, on average 0.70% of applied bentazone was leached by short bursts of intensive rain 12 days after application. Peak flow concentrations for 50% of the treated area for MCPA and 33% for bentazone exceeded the Swedish no-effect guideline values for aquatic ecosystems. Approximately 0.08% of the glyphosate applied was leached in dissolved form in the winters of 2008/2009 and 2010/2011. Based on measurements of glyphosate in particulate form, total glyphosate losses were twice as high (0.16%) in the second winter. The spatial inter-plot variation was large (72–115%) for all five herbicides studied, despite small variations (25%) in water discharge. Conclusions The study shows the importance of local scale soil transport properties for herbicide leaching in cracking clay soils. © 2013 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:23658148

  4. Causes and consequences of spatial variation in sex ratios in a declining bird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Catriona A; Robinson, Robert A; Clark, Jacquie A; Gill, Jennifer A

    2016-09-01

    Male-biased sex ratios occur in many bird species, particularly in those with small or declining populations, but the causes of these skews and their consequences for local population demography are rarely known. Within-species variation in sex ratios can help to identify the demographic and behavioural processes associated with such biases. Small populations may be more likely to have skewed sex ratios if sex differences in survival, recruitment or dispersal vary with local abundance. Analyses of species with highly variable local abundances can help to identify these mechanisms and the implications for spatial variation in demography. Many migratory bird species are currently undergoing rapid and severe declines in abundance in parts of their breeding ranges and thus have sufficient spatial variation in abundance to explore the extent of sex ratio biases, their causes and implications. Using national-scale bird ringing data for one such species (willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus), we show that sex ratios vary greatly across Britain and that male-biased sites are more frequent in areas of low abundance, which are now widespread across much of south and east England. These sex ratio biases are sufficient to impact local productivity, as the relative number of juveniles caught at survey sites declines significantly with increasing sex ratio skew. Sex differences in survival could influence this sex ratio variation, but we find little evidence for sex differences in survival increasing with sex ratio skew. In addition, sex ratios have become male-biased over the last two decades, but there are no such trends in adult survival rates for males or females. This suggests that lower female recruitment into low abundance sites is contributing to these skews. These findings suggest that male-biased sex ratios in small and declining populations can arise through local-scale sex differences in survival and dispersal, with females recruiting disproportionately into larger

  5. Spatially explicit fate modelling of nanomaterials in natural waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quik, J.T.K.; Klein, de J.J.M.; Koelmans, A.A.

    2015-01-01

    Site specific exposure assessments for engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) require spatially explicit fate models, which however are not yet available. Here we present an ENP fate model (NanoDUFLOW) that links ENP specific process descriptions to a spatially explicit hydrological model. The link enables

  6. A Review of Spatial Variation of Inorganic Nitrogen (N) Wet Deposition in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lei; Zhang, Xiuying; Wang, Shanqian; Lu, Xuehe; Ouyang, Xiaoying

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition (Ndep), an important component of the global N cycle, has increased sharply in recent decades in China. Although there were already some studies on Ndep on a national scale, there were some gaps on the magnitude and the spatial patterns of Ndep. In this study, a national-scale Ndep pattern was constructed based on 139 published papers from 2003 to 2014 and the effects of precipitation (P), energy consumption (E) and N fertilizer use (FN) on spatial patterns of Ndep were analyzed. The wet deposition flux of NH4(+)-N, NO3(-)-N and total Ndep was 6.83, 5.35 and 12.18 kg ha(-1) a(-1), respectively. Ndep exhibited a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest of China. Through accuracy assessment of the spatial Ndep distribution and comparisons with other studies, the spatial Ndep distribution by Lu and Tian and this study both gained high accuracy. A strong exponential function was found between P and Ndep, FN and Ndep and E and Ndep, and P and FN had higher contribution than E on the spatial variation of Ndep. Fossil fuel combustion was the main contributor for NO3(-)-N (86.0%) and biomass burning contributed 5.4% on the deposition of NO3(-)-N. The ion of NH4(+) was mainly from agricultural activities (85.9%) and fossil fuel combustion (6.0%). Overall, Ndep in China might be considerably affected by the high emissions of NOx and NH3 from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural activities.

  7. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province based on a cloud model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.

  8. Population ecology of Paepalanthus polyanthus (Bong. Kunth: temporal variation in the pattern of spatial distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tânia Tarabini Castellani

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The temporal variation in density and pattern of spatial distribution of Paepalanthus polyanthus (BONG. Kunth (Eriocaulaceae were evaluated at a determinate sand dune. This study was carried out over a period of five years, at three permanent plots of 25m2 in a sand dune slack at Joaquina Beach, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil. There were strong density fluctuations throughout these years. In areas 1, 2 and 3, the densities changed from 10.4, 2.2 and 1.8 plants/m2 in December 1986 to 75.8, 11.4 and 45.6 plants/m2 in December 1991. Area 3, situated on an elevated site, presented greater variation in density, with no live plants in December 1989 and 102.2 plants/m2 at the recruitment observed in May 1990. Despite these density fluctuations, the pattern of spatial distribution was always aggregated (Id>1, P<0.05. The greatest Id values occurred in periods of low density and not in those of high density, associated with seedling recruitment. Factors such as high seed production with low dispersal, massive germination in moit years and a comparatively high death rate of seedlings at sites more subject to flooding or more distant from the water table proved themselves able to promote this aggregate pattern and increase it during plant development.

  9. Spatial variation in level of agricultural development in Bulandshahr district of western Uttar Pradesh (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gomatee Singh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper an attempt has been made to find out the spatial variation in the adaptation of improved agricultural practices to ascertain the level of agricultural development in Bulandshahr district of western Uttar Pradesh. The spatial variation of agricultural development is determined with the help of nine variables viz. net sown area, irrigated area, cropping intensity, crops productivity, area under HYV, agricultural labourers, role of banks and agricultural machinery. Beside this, the development of blocks are taken with their respective categories viz. high, medium and low on the basis of scores (like mean SD of these variables. These analyses have been carried out by transforming and combining the data related to nine variables, using ‘Z’ score to get the composite score. On the basis of Composite Score, developments of blocks have been again categorized in to three categories i.e. high, medium and low. Results of the aforesaid analysis shows that the modern technological inputs have reciprocal relationship with agricultural development in the study area.

  10. Spatial distribution and vertical variation of arsenic in Guangdong soil profiles, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, H.H.; Yuan, H.X.; Hu, Y.G.; Wu, Z.F.; Zhu, L.A.; Zhu, L.; Li, F.B.; LI, D.Q.

    2006-01-01

    Total of 260 soil profiles were reported to investigate the arsenic spatial distribution and vertical variation in Guangdong province. The arsenic concentration followed an approximately lognormal distribution. The arsenic geometric mean concentration of 10.4 mg/kg is higher than that of China. An upper baseline concentration of 23.4 mg/kg was estimated for surface soils. The influence of soil properties on arsenic concentration was not important. Arsenic spatial distributions presented similar patterns that high arsenic concentration mainly located in limestone, and sandshale areas, indicating that soil arsenic distribution was dependent on bedrock properties than anthropogenic inputs. Moreover, from A- to C-horizon arsenic geometric mean concentrations had an increasing tendency of 10.4, 10.7 to 11.3 mg/kg. This vertical variation may be related to the lower soil organic matter and soil degradation and erosion. Consequently, the soil arsenic export into surface and groundwaters would reach 1040 t year -1 in the study area. - Soil arsenic movement export is a potential threat to the water quality of the study area

  11. Spatial variation of natural terrestrial γ-ray dose rates in Brunei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, S.J.; Lai, K.K.

    1998-01-01

    A carborne survey of natural terrestrial y-ray dose rates along the main roads of the western part of Brunei Darussalam was carried out using two portable type 1.5'φx4' NaI(T1) and 1'φx2' NaI(T1) scintillation counters. A series of semicontinuous count rates measurements were performed inside a moving vehicle. This yielded equal-distance data which were analysed statistically to obtain the spatial variation of the natural terrestrial γ-ray dose rates. The equal-distance data of dose rates were obtained by correcting for shielding effect of the car. The thickness of the pavement and the contribution from the pavement material were estimated from a correlation curve between the dose rates measured on pavements and on the nearby soils. A spectral analysis of the equal-distance data enabled us to clarify the structure of the spatial variation in dose rates. The data could be reasonably smoothened by removing the random noise components in a higher wave number region

  12. Spatial Variation in Frequency and Intensity of Antibiotic Interactions among Streptomycetes from Prairie Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davelos, Anita L.; Kinkel, Linda L.; Samac, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    Antibiotic interactions are believed to be significant to microbial fitness in soil, yet little is known of the frequency, intensity, and diversity of antibiotic inhibition and resistance among indigenous microbes. To begin to address these issues, we studied the abilities of streptomycete isolates from prairie soil to inhibit growth and display resistance to antibiotics produced by a test collection of 10 streptomycete isolates. Wide variations in antibiotic inhibition and resistance for prairie isolates among three locations and four soil depths within a 1-m2 plot were revealed. Fewer than 10% of 153 prairie isolates inhibited all 10 test isolates, while more than 40% of the isolates did not inhibit any of the test isolates. No field isolate was resistant to all of the test isolates, nor was any isolate susceptible to all of the test isolates. No correlation between inhibition and resistance phenotypes was found, suggesting that inhibition and resistance are under independent selection. The significant spatial variation in the frequency and intensity of antibiotic inhibition implies that the fitness benefits of antibiotic production are not the same among locations in soil. In contrast, the consistency of resistance over space indicates that its significance to fitness across locations is stable or the costs of maintaining resistance in the absence of selection are small or nonexistent. The spatial clustering of antibiotic inhibitory activity suggests a variable matrix of selection pressures and microbial responses across the soil landscape. PMID:14766588

  13. Spatial and temporal variations of the callus mechanical properties during bone transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mora-Macias, J.; Reina-Romo, E.; Pajares, A.; Miranda, P.; Dominguez, J.

    2016-07-01

    Nanoindentation allows obtaining the elastic modulus and the hardness of materials point by point. This technique has been used to assess the mechanical propeties of the callus during fracture healing. However, as fas as the authors know, the evaluation of mechanical properties by this technique of the distraction and the docking-site calluses generated during bone transport have not been reported yet. Therefore, the aim of this work is using nanoindentation to assess the spatial and temporal variation of the elastic modulus of the woven bone generated during bone transport. Nanoindentation measurements were carried out using 6 samples from sheep sacrificed at different stages of the bone transport experiments. The results obtained show an important heterogeneity of the elastic modulus of the woven bone without spatial trends. In the case of temporal variation, a clear increase of the mean elastic modulus with time after surgery was observed (from 7±2GPa 35 days after surgery to 14±2GPa 525 days after surgery in the distraction callus and a similar increase in the docking site callus). Comparison with the evolution of the elastic modulus in the woven bone generated during fracture healing shows that mechanical properties increase slower in the case of the woven bone generated during bone transport. (Author)

  14. Spatial data modelling and maximum entropy theory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana; Ocelíková, E.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 2 (2005), s. 80-83 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : spatial data classification * distribution function * error distribution Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information

  15. Spatial variations of b-value and crustal stress in the Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigo, A.; Souriau, A.; Sylvander, M.

    2018-01-01

    The seismicity in the Pyrenees is continuous and well surveyed since more than 20 years. We use the catalogue of seismicity between 1997 and 2013 to explore the spatial variations of the b-value, which corresponds to the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes. Especially, variations of the b-value characterise the state of stress of the crust, possibly highlighting a deficit of large earthquake occurrence. We estimate the differential crustal stress from the b-value using a relationship published by Scholz ( Geophys Res Lett 42:1399-1402, 2015). We also estimate the stress drop variations by determining a power law which links the magnitude to the seismic source radius in the Pyrenees. We focus on the depth variations and we analyse vertical profiles of b-value, differential stress and stress drop, first in the whole Pyrenean belt, then in 10 subregions. The b-values are generally smaller than 1, except in the uppermost 3-5 km where the obtained high values could be linked to the presence of fluids. Downward, the b-values decrease slowly or remain constant until a depth of increase, which could correspond to the brittle-ductile limit of the crust. We propose that this depth and the regional and vertical variations of the b-values are related to the regional tectonic context and possibly to the density heterogeneities. We also suggest that stress drop and differential stress are linearly correlated and that the stress drop is at least 1.8‰ of the differential stress.

  16. Effects of cultivation practices on spatial variation of soil fertility and millet yields in the Sahel of Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samaké, O.; Smaling, E.M.A.; Kropff, M.J.; Stomph, T.J.; Kodio, A.

    2005-01-01

    The article provides a quantitative analysis of temporal variation in fallow characteristics, and spatial variation in fallow distribution, pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) yield and soil fertility in three villages in the Bankass area in Sahelian Mali. Plots of 5 m × 5 m along four transects were

  17. Partitioning nuclear and chloroplast variation at multiple spatial scales in the neotropical epiphytic orchid, Laelia rubescens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapnell, Dorset W; Hamrick, J L

    2004-09-01

    Insights into processes that lead to the distribution of genetic variation within plant species require recognition of the importance of both pollen and seed movement. Here we investigate the contributions of pollen and seed movement to overall gene flow in the Central American epiphytic orchid, Laelia rubescens. Genetic diversity and structure were examined at multiple spatial scales in the tropical dry forest of Costa Rica using nuclear (allozymes) and chloroplast restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers, which were found to be diverse (allozymes, P = 73.3%; HE = 0.174; cpDNA, HE = 0.741). Nuclear genetic structure (FSTn) was low at every spatial scale (0.005-0.091). Chloroplast markers displayed more structure (0.073-0.254) but relatively similar patterns. Neither genome displayed significant isolation-by-distance. Pollen and seed dispersal rates did not differ significantly from one another (mp/ms = 1.40) at the broadest geographical scale, among sites throughout Costa Rica. However, relative contributions of pollen and seeds to gene flow were scale-dependent, with different mechanisms determining the dominant mode of gene flow at different spatial scales. Much seed dispersal is highly localized within the maternal population, while some seeds enter the air column and are dispersed over considerable distances. At the intermediate scale (10s to 100s of metres) pollinators are responsible for substantial pollen flow. This species appears capable of distributing its genes across the anthropogenically altered landscape that now characterizes its Costa Rican dry forest habitat.

  18. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.R. Archer

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the flow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin is derived from melting snow and glaciers. Climatic variability and change of both precipitation and energy inputs will, therefore, affect rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on summer runoff in the River Indus. Spatial variation in precipitation has been investigated by correlation and regression analysis of long-period records. There is a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation at stations over the entire region, so that, for practical forecasting of summer runoff in some basins, a single valley-floor precipitation station can be used In contrast, spatial relationships in seasonal precipitation are weaker in summer and sometimes significantly negative between stations north and south of the Himalayan divide. Although analysis of long datasets of precipitation from 1895 shows no significant trend, from 1961–1999 there are statistically significant increases in winter, in summer and in the annual precipitation at several stations. Preliminary analysis has identified a significant positive correlation between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and winter precipitation in the Karakoram and a negative correlation between NAO and summer rainfall at some stations. Keywords: upper Indus basin, climate change, time series analysis, spatial correlation, teleconnections

  19. Spatial variation in coral reef fish and benthic communities in the central Saudi Arabian Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Khalil, Maha T.

    2017-06-06

    Local-scale ecological information is critical as a sound basis for spatial management and conservation and as support for ongoing research in relatively unstudied areas. We conducted visual surveys of fish and benthic communities on nine reefs (3–24 km from shore) in the Thuwal area of the central Saudi Arabian Red Sea. Fish biomass increased with increasing distance from shore, but was generally low compared to reefs experiencing minimal human influence around the world. All reefs had a herbivore-dominated trophic structure and few top predators, such as sharks, jacks, or large groupers. Coral cover was considerably lower on inshore reefs, likely due to a 2010 bleaching event. Community analyses showed inshore reefs to be characterized by turf algae, slower-growing corals, lower herbivore diversity, and highly abundant turf-farming damselfishes. Offshore reefs had more planktivorous fishes, a more diverse herbivore assemblage, and faster-growing corals. All reefs appear to be impacted by overfishing, and inshore reefs seem more vulnerable to thermal bleaching. The study provides a description of the spatial variation in biomass and community structure in the central Saudi Arabian Red Sea and provides a basis for spatial prioritization and subsequent marine protected area design in Thuwal.

  20. Spatial Variations of Poloidal and Toroidal Mode Field Line Resonances Observed by MMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, G.; Chi, P. J.; Strangeway, R. J.; Russell, C. T.; Slavin, J. A.; Anderson, B. J.; Kepko, L.; Nakamura, R.; Plaschke, F.; Torbert, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Field line resonances (FLRs) are magnetosphere's responses to solar wind forcing and internal instabilities generated by solar wind-magnetospheric interactions. They are standing waves along the Earth's magnetic field lines oscillating in either poloidal or toroidal modes. The two types of waves have their unique frequency characteristics. The eigenfrequency of FLRs is determined by the length of the field line and the plasma density, and thus gradually changes with L. For toroidal mode oscillations with magnetic field perturbations in the azimuthal direction, ideal MHD predicts that each field line oscillates independently with its own eigenfrequency. For poloidal mode waves with field lines oscillating radially, their frequency cannot change with L easily as L shells need to oscillate in sync to avoid efficient damping due to phase mixing. Observations, mainly during quiet times, indeed show that poloidal mode waves often exhibit nearly constant frequency across L shells. Our recent observations, on the other hand, reveal a clear L-dependent frequency trend for a long lasting storm-time poloidal wave event, indicating the wave can maintain its power with changing frequencies for an extended period [Le et al., 2017]. The spatial variation of the frequency shows discrete spatial structures. The frequency remains constant within each discrete structure that spans about 1 REalong L, and changes discretely. We present a follow-up study to investigate spatial variations of wave frequencies using the Wigner-Ville distribution. We examine both poloidal and toroidal waves under different geomagnetic conditions using multipoint observations from MMS, and compare their frequency and occurrence characteristics for insights into their generation mechanisms. Reference: Le, G., et al. (2017), Global observations of magnetospheric high-m poloidal waves during the 22 June 2015 magnetic storm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3456-3464, doi:10.1002/2017GL073048.

  1. Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the Jinsha River basin during 1961–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Knowing the variations of precipitation at the basin scale is very important to study the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydrological processes. To achieve the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation on long time scales and some extreme indicators in the Jinsha River basin, some typical precipitation indices were analysed based on daily precipitation data for 1961–2010 for the research area. The results showed that AP had a certain increasing tendency without passing the significance test, while AP in the lower reach of the basin decreased slightly. PFS had no obvious changes, while MP through a year (except rainfall in September and December had a slight increasing tendency. In addition, AP and PFS showed obvious spatial differences, and the higher rainfall area was located in the lower basin especially in the Hengduan Mountain area. LRD and MRD increased slightly in the upper and middle regions, while they decreased slightly in the lower basin. HRD increased over most of the whole basin, but it had a decreasing tendency in the headwater region and around Dege station but did not pass the significance test. DD and CDD in one year showed similar spatial change patterns and had an obvious decreasing tendency in the upper and middle basin, while they had an obvious increasing tendency in the lower basin. CWD almost decreased over the whole basin, and decreased significantly in a small part of the lower basin. The temporal changes of the typical precipitation indices may confirm the possible increasing tendency for occurrence of drier climate and even drought events in the downstream of Jinsha River basin.

  2. Adaptive Gaussian Predictive Process Models for Large Spatial Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guhaniyogi, Rajarshi; Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2011-01-01

    Large point referenced datasets occur frequently in the environmental and natural sciences. Use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models for analyzing these datasets is undermined by onerous computational burdens associated with parameter estimation. Low-rank spatial process models attempt to resolve this problem by projecting spatial effects to a lower-dimensional subspace. This subspace is determined by a judicious choice of “knots” or locations that are fixed a priori. One such representation yields a class of predictive process models (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2008) for spatial and spatial-temporal data. Our contribution here expands upon predictive process models with fixed knots to models that accommodate stochastic modeling of the knots. We view the knots as emerging from a point pattern and investigate how such adaptive specifications can yield more flexible hierarchical frameworks that lead to automated knot selection and substantial computational benefits. PMID:22298952

  3. Topological models and frameworks for 3D spatial objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlatanova, Siyka; Rahman, Alias Abdul; Shi, Wenzhong

    2004-05-01

    Topology is one of the mechanisms to describe relationships between spatial objects. Thus, it is the basis for many spatial operations. Models utilizing the topological properties of spatial objects are usually called topological models, and are considered by many researchers as the best suited for complex spatial analysis (i.e., the shortest path search). A number of topological models for two-dimensional and 2.5D spatial objects have been implemented (or are under consideration) by GIS and DBMS vendors. However, when we move to one more dimension (i.e., three-dimensions), the complexity of the relationships increases, and this requires new approaches, rules and representations. This paper aims to give an overview of the 3D topological models presented in the literature, and to discuss generic issues related to 3D modeling. The paper also considers models in object-oriented (OO) environments. Finally, future trends for research and development in this area are highlighted.

  4. Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelgren, Nathan; Adams, Michael J.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Bury, R. Bruce

    2011-01-01

    Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection

  5. Implications of spatial data variations for protected areas management: an example from East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowhaniuk, Nicholas; Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J

    2014-09-01

    Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies have become an important tool for visualizing conservation management and developing solutions to problems associated with conservation. When multiple organizations separately develop spatial data representations of protected areas, implicit error arises due to variation between data sets. We used boundary data produced by three conservation organizations (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, World Resource Institute, and Uganda Wildlife Authority), for seven Ugandan parks, to study variation in the size represented and the location of boundaries. We found variation in the extent of overlapping total area encompassed by the three data sources, ranging from miniscule (0.4 %) differences to quite large ones (9.0 %). To underscore how protected area boundary discrepancies may have implications to protected area management, we used a landcover classification, defining crop, shrub, forest, savanna, and grassland. The total area in the different landcover classes varied most in smaller protected areas (those less than 329 km(2)), with forest and cropland area estimates varying up to 65 %. The discrepancies introduced by boundary errors could, in this hypothetical case, generate erroneous findings and could have a significant impact on conservation, such as local-scale management for encroachment and larger-scale assessments of deforestation.

  6. Uncertainties in spatially aggregated predictions from a logistic regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horssen, P.W. van; Pebesma, E.J.; Schot, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a method to assess the uncertainty of an ecological spatial prediction model which is based on logistic regression models, using data from the interpolation of explanatory predictor variables. The spatial predictions are presented as approximate 95% prediction intervals. The

  7. Geostatistical exploration of spatial variation of summertime temperatures in the Detroit metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Oswald, Evan M.; Brown, Daniel G.; Brines, Shannon J.; Gronlund, Carina J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

    2015-01-01

    Background Because of the warming climate urban temperature patterns have been receiving increased attention. Temperature within urban areas can vary depending on land cover, meteorological and other factors. High resolution satellite data can be used to understand this intra-urban variability, although they have been primarily studied to characterize urban heat islands at a larger spatial scale. Objective This study examined whether satellite-derived impervious surface and meteorological conditions from multiple sites can improve characterization of spatial variability of temperature within an urban area. Methods Temperature was measured at 17 outdoor sites throughout the Detroit metropolitan area during the summer of 2008. Kriging and linear regression were applied to daily temperatures and secondary information, including impervious surface and distance-to-water. Performance of models in predicting measured temperatures was evaluated by cross-validation. Variograms derived from several scenarios were compared to determine whether high-resolution impervious surface information could capture fine-scale spatial structure of temperature in the study area. Results Temperatures measured at the sites were significantly different from each other, and all kriging techniques generally performed better than the two linear regression models. Impervious surface values and distance-to-water generally improved predictions slightly. Restricting models to days with lake breezes and with less cloud cover also somewhat improved the predictions. In addition, incorporating high-resolution impervious surface information into cokriging or universal kriging enhanced the ability to characterize fine-scale spatial structure of temperature. Conclusions Meteorological and satellite-derived data can better characterize spatial variability in temperature across a metropolitan region. The data sources and methods we used can be applied in epidemiological studies and public health

  8. Recent developments in spatial analysis spatial statistics, behavioural modelling, and computational intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Getis, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    In recent years, spatial analysis has become an increasingly active field, as evidenced by the establishment of educational and research programs at many universities. Its popularity is due mainly to new technologies and the development of spatial data infrastructures. This book illustrates some recent developments in spatial analysis, behavioural modelling, and computational intelligence. World renown spatial analysts explain and demonstrate their new and insightful models and methods. The applications are in areas of societal interest such as the spread of infectious diseases, migration behaviour, and retail and agricultural location strategies. In addition, there is emphasis on the uses of new technologoies for the analysis of spatial data through the application of neural network concepts.

  9. Spatial and temporal variation in pH, alkalinity and conductivity in surface runoff and groundwater for the Upper River Severn catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Hill

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of pH, alkalinity and electrical conductivity are used to examine the extent of the spatial and temporal variation in stream and ground water chemistry for the Upper Severn catchment, Plynlimon. Wide temporal variations in stream waters broadly reflect flow conditions and complex soil and ground water interactions but not soil type, land usage or geology. The results have major implications for the use of critical load analysis and the development and application of models in upland catchments. They point to the value of field measurements for assessing the environmental management of upland catchments, rather than the present use of over simplistic or inappropriate models.

  10. Practical likelihood analysis for spatial generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonat, W. H.; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano

    2016-01-01

    , respectively, examples of binomial and count datasets modeled by spatial generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the Laplace approximation provides similar estimates to Markov Chain Monte Carlo likelihood, Monte Carlo expectation maximization, and modified Laplace approximation. Some advantages...

  11. Sources of variation in under-5 mortality across sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Heft-Neal, Sam; Bendavid, Eran

    2016-12-01

    Detailed spatial understanding of levels and trends in under-5 mortality is needed to improve the targeting of interventions to the areas of highest need, and to understand the sources of variation in mortality. To improve this understanding, we analysed local-level information on child mortality across sub-Saharan Africa between 1980-2010. We used data from 82 Demographic and Health Surveys in 28 sub-Saharan African countries, including the location and timing of 3·24 million childbirths and 393 685 deaths, to develop high-resolution spatial maps of under-5 mortality in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. These estimates were at a resolution of 0·1 degree latitude by 0·1 degree longitude (roughly 10 km × 10 km). We then analysed this spatial information to distinguish within-country versus between-country sources of variation in mortality, to examine the extent to which declines in mortality have been accompanied by convergence in the distribution of mortality, and to study localised drivers of mortality differences, including temperature, malaria burden, and conflict. In our sample of sub-Saharan African countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, within-country differences in under-5 mortality accounted for 74-78% of overall variation in under-5 mortality across space and over time. Mortality differed significantly across only 8-15% of country borders, supporting the role of local, rather than national, factors in driving mortality patterns. We found that by the end of the study period, 23% of the eligible children in the study countries continue to live in mortality hotspots-areas where, if current trends continue, the Sustainable Developent Goals mortality targets will not be met. In multivariate analysis, within-country mortality levels at each pixel were significantly related to local temperature, malaria burden, and recent history of conflict. Our findings suggest that sub-national determinants explain a greater portion of under-5 mortality than do country

  12. Beech bark necrosis: partitioning the environmental and spatial variation of the damage severity in Central and South-Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamín Jarčuška

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The beech bark necrosis (BBN infestation severity of Europeanbeech (Fagus sylvatica L. was assessed in regions of Central (CE andSouth-Eastern Europe (SE. Altogether more than 10,000 trees were sampled at 114 sites. Using variation partitioning method, we examined the pure and shared effects of stand, site, climate and spatial sets of variables on mean BBN severity. Our rating included (i the whole stand, (ii tree social status classes, (iii canopy (C and (iv understory (U trees separately. We found that C trees were less affected by BBN than sub-canopy and U trees in both regions. There were found inter-regional differences in amount of explained variability (25.4–73.9% for whole stand BBN and in the sensitivity of C and U trees to the environmental gradients. The analysisrevealed that the climate and spatial variables followed by stand variables had the largest marginal effects on mean BBN severity in all models, while the site set of variables had the weakest one. More than half of the explained variation was shared among four sets of variables in SE, contrary to CE. Except to U trees in SE, the effect of climate – pure or spatially structured – remained the highest also after partitioning of variance; more in SE than in CE. Taking into account positive association between mean annual temperature and mean BBN severity in C trees in SE, reinforced negative effect of climate change on the necrosis might be expected to be more seriousmainly in low situated beech forests there. Promoting the tree speciesdiversity in forested areas with higher incidence of beech bark necrosis, i.e. in low altitudes in SE, could reduce the susceptibility of forests to the necrosis at regional level in the future. For better understanding of the relative importance of environmental and spatial variables on BBN severity, further research performed on finer spatial scale (extent and grain is necessary, along with accounting for pathogens involved in the

  13. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

    2015-05-20

    Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months.

  14. Variation in the macrofaunal community over large temporal and spatial scales in the southern Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yong; Sui, Jixing; Yang, Mei; Sun, Yue; Li, Xinzheng; Wang, Hongfa; Zhang, Baolin

    2017-09-01

    To detect large, temporal- and spatial-scale variations in the macrofaunal community in the southern Yellow Sea, data collected along the western, middle and eastern regions of the southern Yellow Sea from 1958 to 2014 were organized and analyzed. Statistical methods such as cluster analysis, non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination (nMDS), permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were applied. The abundance of polychaetes increased in the western region but decreased in the eastern region from 1958 to 2014, whereas the abundance of echinoderms showed an opposite trend. For the entire macrofaunal community, Margalef's richness (d), the Shannon-Wiener index (H‧) and Pielou's evenness (J‧) were significantly lower in the eastern region when compared with the other two regions. No significant temporal differences were found for d and H‧, but there were significantly lower values of J‧ in 2014. Considerable variation in the macrofaunal community structure over the past several decades and among the geographical regions at the species, genus and family levels were observed. The species, genera and families that contributed to the temporal variation in each region were also identified. The most conspicuous pattern was the increase in the species Ophiura sarsii vadicola in the eastern region. In the western region, five polychaetes (Ninoe palmata, Notomastus latericeus, Paralacydonia paradoxa, Paraprionospio pinnata and Sternaspis scutata) increased consistently from 1958 to 2014. The dominance curves showed that both the species diversity and the dominance patterns were relatively stable in the western and middle regions. Environmental parameters such as depth, temperature and salinity could only partially explain the observed biological variation in the southern Yellow Sea. Anthropogenic activities such as demersal fishing and other unmeasured environmental variables

  15. Spatial and Temporal Low-Dimensional Models for Fluid Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalb, Virginia

    2008-01-01

    A document discusses work that obtains a low-dimensional model that captures both temporal and spatial flow by constructing spatial and temporal four-mode models for two classic flow problems. The models are based on the proper orthogonal decomposition at two reference Reynolds numbers. Model predictions are made at an intermediate Reynolds number and compared with direct numerical simulation results at the new Reynolds number.

  16. Spatial modeling of potential woody biomass flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodam Chung; Nathaniel Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The flow of woody biomass to end users is determined by economic factors, especially the amount available across a landscape and delivery costs of bioenergy facilities. The objective of this study develop methodology to quantify landscape-level stocks and potential biomass flows using the currently available spatial database road network analysis tool. We applied this...

  17. Spatial variations of effective elastic thickness of the Lithosphere in the Southeast Asia regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaobin; Kirby, Jon; Yu, Chuanhai; Swain, Chris; Zhao, Junfeng

    2016-04-01

    The effective elastic thickness Te corresponds to the thickness of an idealized elastic beam that would bend similarly to the actual lithosphere under the same applied loads, and could provide important insight into rheology and state of stress. Thus, it is helpful to improve our understanding of the relationship between tectonic styles, distribution of earthquakes and lithospheric rheology in various tectonic settings. The Southeast Asia, located in the southeastern part of the Eurasian Plate, comprises a complex collage of continental fragments, volcanic arcs, and suture zones and marginal oceanic basins, and is surrounded by tectonically active margins which exhibit intense seismicity and volcanism. The Cenozoic southeastward extrusion of the rigid Indochina Block due to the Indo-Asian collision resulted in the drastic surface deformation in the western area. Therefore, a high resolution spatial variation map of Te might be a useful tool for the complex Southeast Asia area to examine the relationships between surface deformation, earthquakes, lithospheric structure and mantle dynamics. In this study, we present a high-resolution map of spatial variations of Te in the Southeast Asia area using the wavelet method, which convolves a range of scaled wavelets with the two data sets of Bouguer gravity anomaly and topography. The topography and bathymetry grid data was extracted from the GEBCO_08 Grid of GEBCO digital atlas. The pattern of Te variations agrees well with the tectonic provinces in the study area. On the whole, low lithosphere strength characterizes the oceanic basins, such as the South China Sea, the Banda sea area, the Celebes Sea, the Sulu Sea and the Andaman Sea. Unlike the oceanic basins, the continental fragments show a complex pattern of Te variations. The Khorat plateau and its adjacent area show strong lithosphere characteristics with a Te range of 20-50 km, suggesting that the Khorat plateau is the strong core of the Indochina Block. The West

  18. Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanglin Fang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, Spatial Lag Model (SAR, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variations of China’s urbanization process on air quality. The results show that a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in AQI values. Regression models revealed urbanization has played an important negative role in determining air quality in Chinese cities. The population, urbanization rate, automobile density, and the proportion of secondary industry were all found to have had a significant influence over air quality. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP and the scale of urban land use, however, failed the significance test at 10% level. The GWR model performed better than global models and the results of GWR modeling show that the relationship between urbanization and air quality was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggest significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on air quality.

  19. Free-streaming radiation in cosmological models with spatial curvature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, M. L.

    1982-01-01

    The effects of spatial curvature on radiation anisotropy are examined for the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker model universes. The effect of curvature is found to be very important when considering fluctuations with wavelengths comparable to the horizon. It is concluded that the behavior of radiation fluctuations in models with spatial curvature is quite different from that in spatially flat models, and that models with negative curvature are most strikingly different. It is therefore necessary to take the curvature into account in careful studies of the anisotropy of the microwave background.

  20. Spatial-temporal variations in carbon dioxide levels in Ibadan, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ana, Godson R; Ojelabi, Peju; Shendell, Derek G

    2015-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests how global background levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are increasing and this impacts environmental quality and human and ecological health. Data from less developed countries are sparse. We determined spatial and temporal variations in concentrations of CO2 in selected locations in Ibadan, Nigeria with identifiable prominent outdoor sources. Activity driven areas in north and south-west areas were identified and marked with a global positioning system. Waste management practices and activities generating CO2 were documented and described using a technician observation checklist. CO2 levels were measured using a portable TELAIRE 7001 attached to HOBO U12 data loggers across seasons. Mean CO2 levels were compared over seasons, i.e. rainy season months and the dry season months. While CO2 levels recorded outdoors in study areas were comparable to available international data, routine monitoring is recommended to further characterize concurrent pollutants in fossil fuel combustion emissions with known deleterious health effects.

  1. The importance of spatial variation of benthic invertebrates for the ecological assessment of European lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solimini, Angelo G.; Sandin, Leif Leonard

    2012-01-01

    variability. However, littoral and profundal invertebrate communities are constrained by different drivers of change and may respond unevenly to distinct human disturbances. How human disturbances determined by different pressures interact in modifying the distribution of benthic invertebrate species......, funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme), we collated several case studies with the aim to increase our understanding of basic sources of spatial variation of invertebrate assemblages. The set of papers includes a variety of different European lakes, habitat types and human...... pressures from the Nordic, Central, Atlantic, Alpine and Mediterranean regions. All papers have an obvious applied objective and suggest which factors need to be considered when designing invertebrate-based classification tools....

  2. Spatial variations in Eulemur fulvus rufus and Lepilemur mustelinus densities in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, Shawn M

    2007-01-01

    I present data on variations in Eulemur fulvus rufus and Lepilemur mustelinus densities as well as tree characteristics (height, diameter and stem frequency) between edge and interior forest habitats in southeastern Madagascar. Line transect surveys were conducted from June 2003 to November 2005 in edge and interior forest habitats in the Vohibola III Classified Forest. Although E. f. rufus densities were significantly lower in edge habitats than in interior habitats, density estimates for L. mustelinus did not differ significantly between habitats. Trees in edge habitats were significantly shorter, had smaller diameters and had lower stem frequencies (for those >25 cm in diameter) than trees in interior habitats. Spatial characteristics of food abundance and quality may explain lemur density patterns in Vohibola III. Low E. f. rufus densities may reduce seed dispersal in edge habitats, which has important consequences for the long-term viability of forest ecosystems in Madagascar. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. SO2 columns over China: Temporal and spatial variations using OMI and GOME-2 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huanhuan, Yan; Liangfu, Chen; Lin, Su; Jinhua, Tao; Chao, Yu

    2014-03-01

    Enhancements of SO2 column amounts due to anthropogenic emission sources over China were shown in this paper by using OMI and GOME-2 observations. The temporal and spatial variations of SO2 columns over China were analyzed for the time period 2005-2010. Beijing and Chongqing showed a high concentration in the SO2 columns, attributable to the use of coal for power generation in China and the characteristic of terrain and meteorology. The reduction of SO2 columns over Beijing and surrounding provinces in 2008 was observed by OMI, which confirms the effectiveness of strict controls on pollutant emissions and motor vehicle traffic before and during 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The SO2 columns over China from GOME-2 (0.2-0.5 DU) were lower than those from OMI (0.6-1 DU), but both showed a decrease in SO2 columns over northern China since 2008 (except an increase in OMI SO2 in 2010).

  4. Confinement-driven Spatial Variations in the Cosmic-Ray Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padoan, Paolo; Scalo, John

    2005-05-01

    Low-energy cosmic rays (CRs) are confined by self-generated MHD waves in the mostly neutral interstellar medium. We show that the CR transport equation can be expressed as a continuity equation for the CR number density involving an effective convection velocity. Assuming a balance between wave growth and ion-neutral damping, this equation gives a steady state condition ncr~n1/2i up to a critical density for free streaming. This relation naturally accounts for the heretofore unexplained difference in CR ionization rates derived for dense diffuse clouds (McCall et al.) and dark clouds, and predicts large spatial variations in the CR heating rate and pressure.

  5. Temporal and spatial variations of soil carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide fluxes in a Southeast Asian tropical rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itoh, M.; Kosugi, Y.; Takanashi, S.; Hayashi, Y.; Kanemitsu, S.; Osaka, K.; Tani, M.; Nik, A. R.

    2010-09-01

    To clarify the factors controlling temporal and spatial variations of soil carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, we investigated these gas fluxes and environmental factors in a tropical rainforest in Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal variation of CO2 flux in a 2-ha plot was positively related to soil water condition and rainfall history. Spatially, CO2 flux was negatively related to soil water condition. When CO2 flux hotspots were included, no other environmental factors such as soil C or N concentrations showed any significant correlation. Although the larger area sampled in the present study complicates explanations of spatial variation of CO2 flux, our results support a previously reported bipolar relationship between the temporal and spatial patterns of CO2 flux and soil water condition observed at the study site in a smaller study plot. Flux of CH4 was usually negative with little variation, resulting in the soil at our study site functioning as a CH4 sink. Both temporal and spatial variations of CH4 flux were positively related to the soil water condition. Soil N concentration was also related to the spatial distribution of CH4 flux. Some hotspots were observed, probably due to CH4 production by termites, and these hotspots obscured the relationship between both temporal and spatial variations of CH4 flux and environmental factors. Temporal variation of N2O flux and soil N2O concentration was large and significantly related to the soil water condition, or in a strict sense, to rainfall history. Thus, the rainfall pattern controlled wet season N2O production in soil and its soil surface flux. Spatially, large N2O emissions were detected in wet periods at wetter and anaerobic locations, and were thus determined by soil physical properties. Our results showed that, even in Southeast Asian rainforests where distinct dry and wet seasons do not exist, variation in the soil water condition related to rainfall history controlled the

  6. Large-scale spatial variation in mercury concentrations in cattle in NW Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Alonso, M.; Benedito, J.L.; Miranda, M.; Fernandez, J.A.; Castillo, C.; Hernandez, J.; Shore, R.F.

    2003-01-01

    This study quantifies the spatial scale over which major point and diffuse sources of anthropogenic mercury emission affect mercury accumulation by cattle in northwest Spain. - Mercury (Hg) is a highly toxic environmental contaminant and man-made emissions account for between a quarter and a third of total atmospheric levels. Point discharges, particularly coal-burning power stations, are major sources of atmospheric Hg and can result in marked spatial variation in mercury deposition and subsequent uptake by biota. The aims of this study were to quantify the extent to which major point and diffuse sources of atmospheric Hg emissions affected accumulation of Hg by biota throughout Galicia and Asturias, two of the major regions in northwest Spain. We did this by relating renal Hg concentrations in locally reared cattle (n=284) to the proximity of animals to point and diffuse sources of Hg emissions. Mercury residues in calf kidneys ranged between non-detected and 89.4 μg/kg wet weight. Point discharges from coal-fired power plants in Galicia had the most dominant impact on Hg accumulation by calves in Galicia, affecting animals throughout the region and explaining some two-thirds of the variation in renal residues between animals located directly downwind from the plants. The effects of more diffuse emission sources on Hg accumulation in calves were not distinguishable in Galicia but were detected in cattle from neighbouring Asturias. The impact of both point and diffuse sources in elevating environmental levels of bioavailable Hg and subsequent accumulation by cattle extended to approximately 140-200 km downwind from source

  7. Spatial-temporal variation of ecosystem water use efficiency in Beijing’s suburban region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, F.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, X. C.; Yuan, S. B.; Lu, N.; Yan, N. Na

    2017-08-01

    Suburban ecosystem has multiple functions such as soil conservation and water regulation, which are critical for the welfare of human beings in the city. Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important indicator of ecosystem function that represents the amount of productivity per unit mass of evapotranspiration (ET). Improving WUE of suburban ecosystem is significant to climate regulation by carbon sequestration and water consumption, especially for cities with severe water shortage like Beijing, the capital of China. Based on remote sensing data, this paper examined the spatial and temporal variations in WUE in Beijing’s suburban region from 2002 to 2010. The results showed that the average annual WUE was 0.868 g C mm-1 m-2. It has large spatial variation with the minimum of 0.500 g C mm-1 m-2 in the Miyun District. During the study periods, the area with significant increasing trend of WUE was 63.2% of the total suburban region. In terms of ecosystem type, the value of WUE was following the sequence, deciduous coniferous forest (0.921g C mm-1 m-2) > mixed forest (0.887g C mm-1 m-2) > deciduous broadleaf forest (0.884 g C mm-1 m-2) > shrubland (0.860 g C mm-1 m-2) > evergreen coniferous forest (0.836 g C mm-1 m-2) > grassland (0.830 g C mm-1 m-2). As ET was similar among the ecosystems, the difference in WUE was mainly due to the discrepancy of NPP. We found that NPP significantly correlated with the diversity of ecosystem type (represented by Shannon-Wiener index). Our results suggest that ecological engineering construction, scientific ecosystem type selection, ecosystem diversity improvement and drought-resistant species cultivation are conductive to improve ecosystem WUE in Beijing’s suburban region.

  8. An Experiment for Estimation of the Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Vapor Using GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elósegui, P.; Rius, A.; Davis, J. L.; Ruffini, G.; Keihm, S.; Bürki, B.; Kruse, L. P.

    We have investigated the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric water vapor using estimates of differential zenith wet delay. These estimates were obtained from an experiment involving Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers at five sites near Madrid, Spain. Data were acquired for 14 consecutive days in December 1996. The intersite horizontal separation varied from 5 km to 50 km (with a maximum altitude difference between sites of 400 m). The sampling rate for the GPS observations was 30 s, except for 2 days during which we used a sampling rate of 10 s. The GPS data were used to estimate relative zenith wet delays. One of the GPS receiving systems was colocated with a continuously operating dual-channel Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR). During the entire experiment the WVR obtained observations from a fixed pattern of directions intended to ``map'' the water-vapor distribution. We have found that these estimates of differential zenith wet delay are highly correlated with the altitude of the site and that the wet refractivity, on average, followed an exponential distribution with an assumed scale height of 1.5 km. We present results from this experiment, including the high degrees of correlation observed both in the spatial and temporal domains once the estimates of differential zenith wet delay were normalized after this exponential law.

  9. Spatial variation of physicochemical and bacteriological parameters elucidation with GIS in Rangat Bay, Middle Andaman, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dheenan, P. S.; Jha, Dilip Kumar; Vinithkumar, N. V.; Ponmalar, A. Angelin; Venkateshwaran, P.; Kirubagaran, R.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the concentration, distribution of bacteria and physicochemical property of surface seawater in Rangat Bay, Middle Andaman, Andaman Islands (India). The bay experiences tidal variations. Perhaps physicochemical properties of seawater in Rangat Bay were found not to vary significantly. The concentration of faecal streptococci was high (2.2 × 103 CFU/100 mL) at creek and harbour area, whereas total coliforms were high (7.0 × 102 CFU/100 mL) at mangrove area. Similarly, total heterotrophic bacterial concentration was high (5.92 × 104 CFU/100 mL) in mangrove and harbour area. The Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration was high (4.2 × 104 CFU/100 mL and 9 × 103 CFU/100 mL) at open sea. Cluster analysis showed grouping of stations in different tidal periods. The spatial maps clearly depicted the bacterial concentration pattern in the bay. The combined approach of multivariate analysis and spatial mapping techniques was proved to be useful in the current study.

  10. Temporal and spatial variation and scaling of groundwater levels in a bounded unconfined aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xiuyu; Zhang, You-Kuan

    2013-02-01

    SummaryTemporal and spatial variation and scaling of groundwater level (h) due to a white noise source in an unconfined aquifer bounded by a no-flow boundary and a river were investigated with non-stationary spectral analyses. Analytical solutions for the variance (σh2), covariance (Chh), and spectrum (Shh) of h described by a linearized Boussinesq equation were derived and verified by Monte Carlo simulations. It is found that in general the random process of h is temporally and spatially non-stationary and σh2, Chh, and Shh are functions of space and time. The effect of a constant-head boundary is to reduce the variance and covariance at late times or the spectrum power at low frequencies near the boundary and thus to create a crossover or break point in temporal scaling of h(x, t). The simulation results support the common practice of estimating scaling parameters from the spectrum of observed groundwater levels. The results obtained in this study are consistent with published theoretical analyses and provide more general theoretical basis for field observations.

  11. Landscape fragmentation generates spatial variation of diet composition and quality in a generalist herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Frial; Morellet, Nicolas; Hewison, A J Mark; Merlet, Joël; Cargnelutti, Bruno; Lourtet, Bruno; Angibault, Jean-Marc; Daufresne, Tanguy; Aulagnier, Stéphane; Verheyden, Hélène

    2011-10-01

    Forest fragmentation may benefit generalist herbivores by increasing access to various substitutable food resources, with potential consequences for their population dynamics. We studied a European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population living in an agricultural mosaic of forest, woodlots, meadows and cultivated crops. We tested whether diet composition and quality varied spatially across the landscape using botanical analyses of rumen contents and chemical analyses of the plants consumed in relation to landscape metrics. In summer and non-mast winters, roe deer ate more cultivated seeds and less native forest browse with increasing availability of crops in the local landscape. This spatial variation resulted in contrasting diet quality, with more cell content and lower lignin and hemicellulose content (high quality) for individuals living in more open habitats. The pattern was less marked in the other seasons when diet composition, but not diet quality, was only weakly related to landscape structure. In mast autumns and winters, the consumption of acorns across the entire landscape resulted in a low level of differentiation in diet composition and quality. Our results reflect the ability of generalist species, such as roe deer, to adapt to the fragmentation of their forest habitat by exhibiting a plastic feeding behavior, enabling them to use supplementary resources available in the agricultural matrix. This flexibility confers nutritional advantages to individuals with access to cultivated fields when their native food resources are depleted or decline in quality (e.g. during non-mast years) and may explain local heterogeneities in individual phenotypic quality.

  12. Diatoms on the carapace of common snapping turtles: Luticola spp. dominate despite spatial variation in assemblages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly C Wu

    Full Text Available Filamentous algae are often visible on the carapaces of freshwater turtles and these algae are dominated by a few species with varying geographic distributions. Compared to filamentous algae, little is known about the much more speciose microalgae on turtles. Our objectives were to compare the diatom flora on a single turtle species (the common snapping turtle, Chelydra serpentina across part of its range to examine spatial patterns and determine whether specific diatom taxa were consistently associated with turtles (as occurs in the filamentous alga Basicladia spp.. Using preserved turtle specimens from museums, we systematically sampled diatoms on the carapaces of 25 snapping turtles across five states. The diverse diatom assemblages formed two groups-the southern Oklahoma group and the northern Illinois/Wisconsin/New York group, with Arkansas not differing from either group. Of the six diatom species found in all five states, four species are widespread, whereas Luticola cf. goeppertiana and L. cf. mutica are undescribed species, known only from turtles in our study. L. cf. goeppertiana comprised 83% of the diatom abundance on Oklahoma turtles and was relatively more abundant on southern turtles (Oklahoma and Arkansas than on northern turtles (where mean abundance/state was > 10%. L. cf. mutica was the most abundant species (40% on New York turtles. Some Luticola species are apparently turtle associates and results support a pattern of spatial variation in Luticola species, similar to that in Basicladia. Using museum specimens is an efficient and effective method to study the distribution of micro-epibionts.

  13. Identification of a potential toxic hot spot associated with AVS spatial and seasonal variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campana, O; Rodríguez, A; Blasco, J

    2009-04-01

    In risk assessment of aquatic sediments, much attention is paid to the difference between acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEMs) as indicators of metal availability. Ten representative sampling sites were selected along the estuary of the Guadalete River. Surficial sediments were sampled in winter and summer to better understand SEM and AVS spatial and seasonal distributions and to establish priority risk areas. Total SEM concentration (SigmaSEM) ranged from 0.3 to 4.7 micromol g(-1). It was not significantly different between seasons, however, it showed a significant difference between sampling stations. AVS concentrations were much more variable, showing significant spatial and temporal variations. The values ranged from 0.8 to 22.4 micromol g(-1). The SEM/AVS ratio was found to be <1 at all except one station located near the mouth of the estuary. The results provided information on a potential pollution source near the mouth of the estuary, probably associated with vessel-related activities carried out in a local harbor area located near the station.

  14. Spatial and Seasonal Variation in Rain Use Efficiency in Semiarid Grasslands of Inner Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyoti Bhandari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rain use efficiency (RUE is an important indicator for identifying the response of plant production to variation in precipitation patterns, especially in semiarid ecosystem grasslands of Inner Mongolia. We have investigated the response and spatial patterns of RUE to precipitation patterns based on five years (2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, and 2013 of records from semiarid ecosystem sites across Inner Mongolia. Our results showed that RUEADM was lowest in the wettest year (2012 and highest in the year following the driest year (2008. There was no significant correlation between RUEADM and RUETDM in typical and desert steppe. RUETDM was strongly correlated with both annual precipitation (AP and growing season precipitation (GSP compared to RUEADM. RUEADM, therefore, cannot be used in place of RUETDM. RUEADM increased with species richness. The relationship between RUEADM and species richness was significantly correlated in meadow steppe, typical steppe, and desert steppe. Our findings can shed light on the spatial utilization pattern of seasonal rainfall in semiarid grassland ecosystems.

  15. Spatial and temporal variations in fish assemblage: testing the zonation concept in small reservoirs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, M T; Baumgartner, G; Gomes, L C

    2017-12-07

    Large reservoirs usually present spatial gradients in fish assemblage, distinguishing three strata (littoral, pelagic, and bathypelagic) along the vertical and horizontal axes, and three zones (fluvial, transitional, and lacustrine) along the longitudinal axis. The main objective of this study was to assess if small reservoirs also present the spatial gradients in fish assemblage attributes and structure as already observed in large reservoirs. Fish surveys were conducted quarterly, from 2003 to 2008, in the Mourão Reservoir (Mourão River, Paraná, Brazil), using gillnets with different mesh sizes, arranged in all strata of all three zones. Community attributes (species richness and evenness) were calculated for each sample, and differences were tested using three-way ANOVA (factors: zone, strata, year). Community composition was summarized using Correspondence Analysis (CA) and differences were tested with three-way ANOVA for each axis, controlling the same three factors. Because of the high variability in reservoir water level through time, all analyses were made considering temporal variations. Species richness presented a decreasing trend from fluvial to lacustrine zones, and higher values in littoral strata, possibly because upper reaches and littoral regions provide better conditions for fish to feed and to reproduce. Evenness was considerably low, presenting high variability, and no evident pattern. The expected longitudinal gradient was not found in this study indicating longitudinal similarity, contrary to observed in large reservoirs. Vertical and horizontal gradients were observed in all sampling stations, indicating that abiotic and biotic conditions are influencing fish distributions within the reservoir.

  16. Diatoms on the carapace of common snapping turtles: Luticola spp. dominate despite spatial variation in assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shelly C; Bergey, Elizabeth A

    2017-01-01

    Filamentous algae are often visible on the carapaces of freshwater turtles and these algae are dominated by a few species with varying geographic distributions. Compared to filamentous algae, little is known about the much more speciose microalgae on turtles. Our objectives were to compare the diatom flora on a single turtle species (the common snapping turtle, Chelydra serpentina) across part of its range to examine spatial patterns and determine whether specific diatom taxa were consistently associated with turtles (as occurs in the filamentous alga Basicladia spp.). Using preserved turtle specimens from museums, we systematically sampled diatoms on the carapaces of 25 snapping turtles across five states. The diverse diatom assemblages formed two groups-the southern Oklahoma group and the northern Illinois/Wisconsin/New York group, with Arkansas not differing from either group. Of the six diatom species found in all five states, four species are widespread, whereas Luticola cf. goeppertiana and L. cf. mutica are undescribed species, known only from turtles in our study. L. cf. goeppertiana comprised 83% of the diatom abundance on Oklahoma turtles and was relatively more abundant on southern turtles (Oklahoma and Arkansas) than on northern turtles (where mean abundance/state was > 10%). L. cf. mutica was the most abundant species (40%) on New York turtles. Some Luticola species are apparently turtle associates and results support a pattern of spatial variation in Luticola species, similar to that in Basicladia. Using museum specimens is an efficient and effective method to study the distribution of micro-epibionts.

  17. Spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration, groundwater and precipitation in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, J.; Riley, W. J.; Shen, C.; Melack, J. M.; Qiu, H.

    2017-12-01

    We used wavelet coherence analysis to investigate the effects of precipitation (P) and groundwater dynamics (total water storage anomaly, TWSA) on evapotranspiration (ET) at kilometer, sub-basin, and whole basin scales in the Amazon basin. The Amazon-scale averaged ET, P, and TWSA have about the same annual periodicity. The phase lag between ET and P (ΦET-P) is 1 to 3 months, and between ET and TWSA (ΦET-TWSA) is 3 to 7 months. The phase patterns have a south-north divide due to significant variation in climatic conditions. The correlation between ΦET-P and ΦET-TWSA is affected by the aridity index (the ratio between potential ET (PET) and P, PET / P), of each sub-basin, as determined using the Budyko framework at the sub-basin level. The spatial structure of ΦET-P is negatively correlated with the spatial structure of annual ET. At Amazon-scale during a drought year (e.g., 2010), both phases decreased, while in the subsequent years, ΦET-TWSA increased, indicating strong groundwater effects on ET immediately following dry years Amazon-wide.

  18. Evaluation of spatial and temporal variations of inorganic nutrient species in the eastern Aegean Sea waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin-Onen, Sinem; Kocak, Ferah; Kucuksezgin, Filiz

    2012-12-01

    In this study, the state of the five stations' quality was assessed on the basis of determination of temporal and spatial variability of nutrients with physicochemical variables. Besides this, organic matter of sediment, secchi disc depth and suspended solids were also determined. The samples were collected seasonally from different areas such as harbor and important touristic marinas along the eastern Aegean during June 2008-2009. As a result, the nutrients ranged between NH₄: 0.10-25.6, NO₂: 0.01-1.5, NO₃: 0.19-7.0, o.PO₄: 0.17-6.8, TPO₄: 0.32-9.6 and Si: 0.30-13.8 μM, respectively. Precipitation leads to large changes in temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients. The highest nutrient values in this study were observed during the rainy season except o.PO₄-P and TPO₄-P. However, the physico-chemical variables have exhibited considerable temporal variations while nutrients showed spatial differences. The relatively high nutrient increase in the sampling stations coupled with surface runoff events during rainy period and pollution arising from both point and non-point sources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Spatial Variation and Resuscitation Process Affecting Survival after Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests (OHCA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Chou Chen

    Full Text Available Ambulance response times and resuscitation efforts are critical predictors of the survival rate after out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA. On the other hand, rural-urban differences in the OHCA survival rates are an important public health issue.We retrospectively reviewed the January 2011-December 2013 OHCA registry data of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. With particular focus on geospatial variables, we aimed to unveil risk factors predicting the overall OHCA survival until hospital admission. Spatial analysis, network analysis, and the Kriging method by using geographic information systems were applied to analyze spatial variations and calculate the transport distance. Logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors for OHCA survival.Among the 4,957 patients, the overall OHCA survival to hospital admission was 16.5%. In the multivariate analysis, female sex (adjusted odds ratio:, AOR, 1.24 [1.06-1.45], events in public areas (AOR: 1.30 [1.05-1.61], exposure to automated external defibrillator (AED shock (AOR: 1.70 [1.30-2.23], use of laryngeal mask airway (LMA (AOR: 1.35 [1.16-1.58], non-trauma patients (AOR: 1.41 [1.04-1.90], ambulance bypassed the closest hospital (AOR: 1.28 [1.07-1.53], and OHCA within the high population density areas (AOR: 1.89 [1.55-2.32] were positively associated with improved OHCA survival. By contrast, a prolonged total emergency medical services (EMS time interval was negatively associated with OHCA survival (AOR: 0.98 [0.96-0.99].Resuscitative efforts, such as AED or LMA use, and a short total EMS time interval improved OHCA outcomes in emergency departments. The spatial heterogeneity of emergency medical resources between rural and urban areas might affect survival rate.

  20. Competition for marine space: modelling the Baltic Sea fisheries and effort displacement under spatial restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Eigaard, Ole Ritzau

    2015-01-01

    to fishery and from vessel to vessel. The impact assessment of new spatial plans involving fisheries should be based on quantitative bioeconomic analyses that take into account individual vessel decisions, and trade-offs in cross-sector conflicting interests.Weuse a vessel-oriented decision-support tool (the...... DISPLACE model) to combine stochastic variations in spatial fishing activities with harvested resource dynamics in scenario projections. The assessment computes economic and stock status indicators by modelling the activity of Danish, Swedish, and German vessels (.12 m) in the international western Baltic...... Sea commercial fishery, together with the underlying size-based distribution dynamics of the main fishery resources of sprat, herring, and cod. The outcomes of alternative scenarios for spatial effort displacement are exemplified by evaluating the fishers’s abilities to adapt to spatial plans under...

  1. Spatial Uncertainty Model for Visual Features Using a Kinect™ Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Han Park

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

  2. Spatial uncertainty model for visual features using a Kinect™ sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Han; Shin, Yong-Deuk; Bae, Ji-Hun; Baeg, Moon-Hong

    2012-01-01

    This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

  3. Spatial and temporal snowpack variation in the crown of the continent ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selkowitz, D.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Reardon, B.A.

    2002-01-01

    Snowpack related ecosystem changes such as glacier recession and alpine treeline advance have been documented in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) over the course of the previous 150 years. Using data from the Natural Resource Conservation Service's SNOTEL sites and snow course surveys, we examined the spatial and temporal variation in snowpack in the region. SNOTEL data suggest CCE snowpacks are larger and more persistent than in most regions of the Western U.S., and that water year precipitation, rather than mean temperature, is the primary control on April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow course data indicate a statistically significant downward trend in mean April 1 SWE for the period 1950-2001 but no statistically significant trend in mean May 1 SWE for the longer period 1922-2001. Further analysis reveals that variations in both April 1 and May 1 mean SWE are closely tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an ENSO-like interdecadal pattern of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Despite no significant trend in mean May 1 SWE between 1922-2001, glaciers in Glacier National Park receded steadily during this period, implying changing climatic conditions crossed a threshold for glacier mass balance maintenace sometime between the Little Ice Age glacial maxima and 1922.

  4. Spatial and temporal variation in isotopic composition of atmospheric lead in Norwegian moss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosman, K.J.R.; Ly, C.; Steinnes, E.

    1998-01-01

    Earlier studies using moss as a biomonitor of pollution have shown that long-range transport is a major source of pollution in Norway. Until now, the origin of these pollutants has been inferred from concentration measurements of various elements in moss and the climatology at each sampling site. Lead isotopes provide an opportunity to identify the sources and to quantify the contribution of each. This preliminary study reports measurements of lead isotopes in moss from selected sites along the full extent of Norway that reveal significant spatial and temporal variations. There are significant north-south trends that differ at coastal and inland sites and differ between sampling periods (1974--1994). These variations reflect the changing contributions from the different source regions as the regulation of pollution from automobiles and industry takes effect. Identifiable sources are the U.K. and possibly France, which is noticeable at coastal sites; western Europe at the southern end; and eastern Europe and Russia influencing the inland and northernmost sites

  5. Spatial variation in background mortality among dominant coral taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisapia, Chiara; Pratchett, Morgan S

    2014-01-01

    Even in the absence of major disturbances (e.g., cyclones, bleaching), corals are consistently subject to high levels of background mortality, which undermines individual fitness and resilience of coral colonies. Partial mortality may impact coral response to climate change by reducing colony ability to recover between major acute stressors. This study quantified proportion of injured versus uninjured colonies (the prevalence of injuries) and instantaneous measures of areal extent of injuries across individual colonies (the severity of injuries), in four common coral species along the Great Barrier Reef in Australia: massive Porites, encrusting Montipora, Acropora hyacinthus and Pocillopora damicornis. A total of 2,276 adult colonies were surveyed three latitudinal sectors, nine reefs and 27 sites along 1000 km2 on the Great Barrier Reef. The prevalence of injuries was very high, especially for Porites spp (91%) and Montipora encrusting (85%) and varied significantly, but most lay at small spatial scales (e.g., among colonies positioned greatly among colonies within the same site and habitat. This study suggests that intraspecific variation in partial mortality between adjacent colonies may be more important than variation between colonies in different latitudinal sectors or reefs. Differences in the prevalence and severity of background partial mortality have significant ramifications for coral capacity to cope with increasing acute disturbances, such as climate-induced coral bleaching. These data are important for understanding coral responses to increasing stressors, and in particular for predicting their capacity to recover between subsequent disturbances.

  6. Quantifying spatial disparities in neonatal mortality using a structured additive regression model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence N Kazembe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality contributes a large proportion towards early childhood mortality in developing countries, with considerable geographical variation at small areas within countries. METHODS: A geo-additive logistic regression model is proposed for quantifying small-scale geographical variation in neonatal mortality, and to estimate risk factors of neonatal mortality. Random effects are introduced to capture spatial correlation and heterogeneity. The spatial correlation can be modelled using the Markov random fields (MRF when data is aggregated, while the two dimensional P-splines apply when exact locations are available, whereas the unstructured spatial effects are assigned an independent Gaussian prior. Socio-economic and bio-demographic factors which may affect the risk of neonatal mortality are simultaneously estimated as fixed effects and as nonlinear effects for continuous covariates. The smooth effects of continuous covariates are modelled by second-order random walk priors. Modelling and inference use the empirical Bayesian approach via penalized likelihood technique. The methodology is applied to analyse the likelihood of neonatal deaths, using data from the 2000 Malawi demographic and health survey. The spatial effects are quantified through MRF and two dimensional P-splines priors. RESULTS: Findings indicate that both fixed and spatial effects are associated with neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study, therefore, suggests that the challenge to reduce neonatal mortality goes beyond addressing individual factors, but also require to understanding unmeasured covariates for potential effective interventions.

  7. Modelling malaria incidence by an autoregressive distributed lag model with spatial component.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguna, Francisco; Grillet, María Eugenia; León, José R; Ludeña, Carenne

    2017-08-01

    The influence of climatic variables on the dynamics of human malaria has been widely highlighted. Also, it is known that this mosquito-borne infection varies in space and time. However, when the data is spatially incomplete most popular spatio-temporal methods of analysis cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we develop a two step methodology to model the spatio-temporal dependence of malaria incidence on local rainfall, temperature, and humidity as well as the regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern coast of Venezuela. First, we fit an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to the weekly data, and then, we adjust a linear separable spacial vectorial autoregressive model (VAR) to the residuals of the ARDL. Finally, the model parameters are tuned using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure derived from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Our results show that the best model to account for the variations of malaria incidence from 2001 to 2008 in 10 endemic Municipalities in North-Eastern Venezuela is a logit model that included the accumulated local precipitation in combination with the local maximum temperature of the preceding month as positive regressors. Additionally, we show that although malaria dynamics is highly heterogeneous in space, a detailed analysis of the estimated spatial parameters in our model yield important insights regarding the joint behavior of the disease incidence across the different counties in our study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Spatial variation in environmental noise and air pollution in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheirbek, Iyad; Ito, Kazuhiko; Neitzel, Richard; Kim, Jung; Johnson, Sarah; Ross, Zev; Eisl, Holger; Matte, Thomas

    2014-06-01

    Exposure to environmental noise from traffic is common in urban areas and has been linked to increased risks of adverse health effects including cardiovascular disease. Because traffic sources also produce air pollutants that increase the risk of cardiovascular morbidity, associations between traffic exposures and health outcomes may involve confounding and/or synergisms between air pollution and noise. While prior studies have characterized intraurban spatial variation in air pollution in New York City (NYC), limited data exists on the levels and spatial variation in noise levels. We measured 1-week equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (Leq) at 56 sites during the fall of 2012 across NYC locations with varying traffic intensity and building density that are routinely monitored for combustion-related air pollutants. We evaluated correlations among several noise metrics used to characterize noise exposures, including Leq during different time periods (night, day, weekday, weekend), Ldn (day-night noise), and measures of intermittent noise defined as the ratio of peak levels to median and background levels. We also examined correlations between sound pressure levels and co-located simultaneous measures of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and black carbon (BC) as well as estimates of traffic and building density around the monitoring sites. Noise levels varied widely across the 56 monitoring sites; 1-week Leq varied by 21.6 dBA (range 59.1-80.7 dBA) with the highest levels observed during the weekday, daytime hours. Indices of average noise were well correlated with each other (r > 0.83), while indices of intermittent noise were not well correlated with average noise levels (r noise levels and traffic intensity within 100 m of the monitoring sites (r = 0.58). The high levels of noise observed in NYC often exceed recommended guidelines for outdoor and personal exposures, suggesting unhealthy levels in many locations

  9. Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Xu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

  10. Spatial and temporal variation of the ichthyoplankton in the Laguna El Quelele, Nayarit, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navarro-Rodríguez, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estuarine systems are the most important natural aquatic resources because, from the perspective of the fish community, they include a large number of individuals and biomass, where larvae and juveniles are especially abundant. Thanks to the implementation of Ichthyoplanktonic studies, the areas of concentration of adults in reproductive stage and potentially exploitable species are detected and evaluated, generating the basis for establishing measures for rational use and conservation. This paper analyzes the composition of fish larvae in the lagoon El Quelele in Bahia de Banderas, Nayarit. 20 daytime superficial zooplanktonic trawls were conducted by using a standard “Zeppelin” net seasonally from spring to winter 2002. From the 20 samples obtained, larvae density was 573.51 org/1000 m3. Its ichthyoplanktonic group was represented by 11 families with 12 genres and 10 species, where Engraulis mordax (40.21 %, Eucinostomus sp. (22.68 %, Trachurus sp. (15.46 % and Dormitator latifrons (13.14 % presented greater percentage of relative abundance, while in the rest of the organisms, relative abundance was represented between 7.47 to 0.25 %. Regarding temporal variation, the highest relative abundance was presented in fall with 44.74 and the lowest during the winter with 4.85 %, with moderate average temperature records of 29.1 and 30.8 °C respectively, and low salinity (24.2 psu. While spatial variation was better represented in site 3 with relative abundance 29.41 % and site 4 with the lower value during the study period (9.2 % at temperatures ranging from 22 °C to 35 °C and salinity of 24 psu to 34 psu. On the other hand, in spring and fall they showed greater diversity, greater richness and therefore these are the seasons with greatest equity in summer and winter. Cluster analysis applied to the species-variable sampling sites showed greater similarity or affinity between sites 3 and 5 (72.2 %, similarly, variables season – species along

  11. [Spatial and temporal variation patterns in aquatic macroinvertebrates of Tecocomulco Lake, Hidalgo (México)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico-Sánchez, Axel Eduardo; Rodríguez-Romero, Alexis Joseph; López-López, Eugenia; Sedeño-Díaz, Jacinto Elías

    2014-04-01

    Lake Tecocomulco, Hidalgo, is a relic of the ancient lakes ofAnahuac, important for the conservation of resident and migratory birds. However, the composition of aquatic macroinvertebrates is unknown; this is an important gap in conservation as they play an important role in the food web. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in macroinvertebrate assemblages and their relationship with habitat characteristics. We carried out four monitoring campaigns covering the rainy and dry seasons. The monitoring was conducted at six study sites (four in the littoral zone and two in the middle part of the lake), environmental factors were recorded at each study site, water samples were collected for their physical and chemical analysis and aquatic macroinvertebrates were collected. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to group study sites based on physical and chemical characteristics. Richness of taxa was analysed with rarefaction. We assessed the importance value index of each taxon (considering their frequency of occurrence and abundance). Similarity analyzes were performed between study sites and similarity of taxa with indices of Jaccard and Bray-Curtis, respectively. We performed a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) between environmental factors and macroinvertebrate taxa. The PCA showed a marked seasonal variation represented by warm periods, with high values of conductivity, alkalinity, hardness, sulfates, and macronutrients (N and P) and the cold period with low values. We found a total of 26 taxa of aquatic macroinvertebrates and the highest richness was found in August. The Jaccard similarity analysis found differences between the littoral area and the limnetic zone, which differ also in the composition of macrophytes. The littoral zone had the highest taxa richness of macroinvertebrates and macrophytes, while the lowest diversity was found in the offshore zone. The CCA related physicochemical characteristics of the water body with

  12. FUEL3-D: A Spatially Explicit Fractal Fuel Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons

    2006-01-01

    Efforts to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of fuels treatments are hampered by inconsistencies between the spatial scale at which fuel treatments are implemented and the spatial scale, and detail, with which we model fire and fuel interactions. Central to this scale inconsistency is the resolution at which variability within the fuel bed is considered. Crown...

  13. Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-11-01

    Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

  14. Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

    2017-04-01

    The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies

  15. 30th International School of Mathematics "G Stampacchia" : Equilibrium Problems and Variational Models "Ettore Majorana"

    CERN Document Server

    Giannessi, Franco; Maugeri, Antonino; Equilibrium Problems and Variational Models

    2000-01-01

    The volume, devoted to variational analysis and its applications, collects selected and refereed contributions, which provide an outline of the field. The meeting of the title "Equilibrium Problems and Variational Models", which was held in Erice (Sicily) in the period June 23 - July 2 2000, was the occasion of the presentation of some of these papers; other results are a consequence of a fruitful and constructive atmosphere created during the meeting. New results, which enlarge the field of application of variational analysis, are presented in the book; they deal with the vectorial analysis, time dependent variational analysis, exact penalization, high order deriva­ tives, geometric aspects, distance functions and log-quadratic proximal methodology. The new theoretical results allow one to improve in a remarkable way the study of significant problems arising from the applied sciences, as continuum model of transportation, unilateral problems, multicriteria spatial price models, network equilibrium...

  16. Temporal and spatial variations in recession rates and sediment release from soft rock cliffs, Suffolk coast, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, S. M.; Spencer, T.

    2010-12-01

    High rates of coastal retreat characterise the weakly cemented Plio-Pleistocene rocks and sediments which form much of the cliffed coastline of East Anglia, southern North Sea. The accurate establishment of sediment losses from these cliffs has a regional significance as these sediments are important in maintaining beaches and nearshore bank systems and in feeding nearshore sediment transport pathways. However, the high spatial and temporal variability of cliff failure processes in such materials necessitates fine-scale integration of alongshore variations in cliff retreat over a series of well-established time periods to accurately define cliffline recession rates and sediment volume inputs to the nearshore system. This study applied the DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) within the GIS software package ArcMap to digitised, georeferenced positions of former shorelines, obtained from historic maps and aerial photographs (after 1992), for the sections of Benacre-Southwold and Dunwich-Minsmere on the Suffolk coast of East Anglia, UK; transects were cast every 10 m alongshore, producing very high spatial resolution upon which to assess shoreline retreat (over 1000 transects along 11 km of shoreline). Long-term (1883-2008) mean shoreline retreat rates varied between 2.3-3.5 m a - 1 (Benacre-Southwold) and 0.9 m a - 1 (Dunwich-Minsmere). For six cliffed subunits within these larger coastal sections, spatial variations in cliffline recession rates for shorter time intervals (at ca. 20-year intervals) within this longer (125 year) period were established. The combination of recession rates with photogrammetric methods of obtaining cliff top elevation at the same spatial resolution, available using aerial photographs and digital terrain models, along with cliff sediment composition, allowed the calculation of sediment volumetric inputs from cliff retreat in the period 1992-2008. Re-assessment of the magnitude and location of sediment inputs into the nearshore zone

  17. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

  18. Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

    2014-08-01

    This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. An API for Integrating Spatial Context Models with Spatial Reasoning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun

    2006-01-01

    The integration of context-aware applications with spatial context models is often done using a common query language. However, algorithms that estimate and reason about spatial context information can benefit from a tighter integration. An object-oriented API makes such integration possible...... and can help reduce the complexity of algorithms making them easier to maintain and develop. This paper propose an object-oriented API for context models of the physical environment and extensions to a location modeling approach called geometric space trees for it to provide adequate support for location...... modeling. The utility of the API is evaluated in several real-world cases from an indoor location system, and spans several types of spatial reasoning algorithms....

  20. Chaos induced by breakup of waves in a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Jin, Zhen; Liu, Quan-Xing; Li, Li

    2008-01-01

    Spatial epidemiology is the study of spatial variation in disease risk or incidence, including the spatial patterns of the population. The spread of diseases in human populations can exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches. In this paper, the spatiotemporal complexity of a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, which includes the behavioral changes and crowding effect of the infective individuals, is investigated. Based on both theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find out when, under the parameters which can guarantee a stable limit cycle in the non-spatial model, spiral and target waves can emerge. Moreover, two different kinds of breakup of waves are shown. Specifically, the breakup of spiral waves is from the core and the breakup of target waves is from the far-field, and both kinds of waves become irregular patterns at last. Our results reveal that the spatiotemporal chaos is induced by the breakup of waves. The results obtained confirm that diffusion can form spiral waves, target waves or spatial chaos of high population density, which enrich the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in the epidemic model

  1. A review of techniques for spatial modeling in geographical, conservation and landscape genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Nabout, João Carlos; de Campos Telles, Mariana Pires; Soares, Thannya Nascimento; Rangel, Thiago Fernando L V B

    2009-04-01

    Most evolutionary processes occur in a spatial context and several spatial analysis techniques have been employed in an exploratory context. However, the existence of autocorrelation can also perturb significance tests when data is analyzed using standard correlation and regression techniques on modeling genetic data as a function of explanatory variables. In this case, more complex models incorporating the effects of autocorrelation must be used. Here we review those models and compared their relative performances in a simple simulation, in which spatial patterns in allele frequencies were generated by a balance between random variation within populations and spatially-structured gene flow. Notwithstanding the somewhat idiosyncratic behavior of the techniques evaluated, it is clear that spatial autocorrelation affects Type I errors and that standard linear regression does not provide minimum variance estimators. Due to its flexibility, we stress that principal coordinate of neighbor matrices (PCNM) and related eigenvector mapping techniques seem to be the best approaches to spatial regression. In general, we hope that our review of commonly used spatial regression techniques in biology and ecology may aid population geneticists towards providing better explanations for population structures dealing with more complex regression problems throughout geographic space.

  2. Physically-based modeling of topographic effects on spatial evapotranspiration and soil moisture patterns through radiation and wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Liu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, simulations with the Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model are performed to quantify the spatial variability of both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET, and soil moisture content (SMC caused by topography-induced spatial wind and radiation differences. To obtain the spatially distributed ET/SMC patterns, the field scale SWAP model is applied in a distributed way for both pointwise and catchment wide simulations. An adapted radiation model from r.sun and the physically-based meso-scale wind model METRAS PC are applied to obtain the spatial radiation and wind patterns respectively, which show significant spatial variation and correlation with aspect and elevation respectively. Such topographic dependences and spatial variations further propagate to ET/SMC. A strong spatial, seasonal-dependent, scale-relevant intra-catchment variability in daily/annual ET and less variability in SMC can be observed from the numerical experiments. The study concludes that topography has a significant effect on ET/SMC in the humid region where ET is a energy limited rather than water availability limited process. It affects the spatial runoff generation through spatial radiation and wind, therefore should be applied to inform hydrological model development. In addition, the methodology used in the study can serve as a general method for physically-based ET estimation for data sparse regions.

  3. Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, Daniel J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Wenger, Seth J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Sowder, Colin; Steel, E. Ashley; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordan, Chris E.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Som, Nicholas; Monestiez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

  4. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  5. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

  6. Small-scale spatial variation in population dynamics and fishermen response in a coastal marine fishery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Jono R; Kay, Matthew C; Colgate, John; Qi, Roy; Lenihan, Hunter S

    2012-01-01

    A major challenge for small-scale fisheries management is high spatial variability in the demography and life history characteristics of target species. Implementation of local management actions that can reduce overfishing and maximize yields requires quantifying ecological heterogeneity at small spatial scales and is therefore limited by available resources and data. Collaborative fisheries research (CFR) is an effective means to collect essential fishery information at local scales, and to develop the social, technical, and logistical framework for fisheries management innovation. We used a CFR approach with fishing partners to collect and analyze geographically precise demographic information for grass rockfish (Sebastes rastrelliger), a sedentary, nearshore species harvested in the live fish fishery on the West Coast of the USA. Data were used to estimate geographically distinct growth rates, ages, mortality, and length frequency distributions in two environmental subregions of the Santa Barbara Channel, CA, USA. Results indicated the existence of two subpopulations; one located in the relatively cold, high productivity western Channel, and another in the relatively warm, low productivity eastern Channel. We parameterized yield per recruit models, the results of which suggested nearly twice as much yield per recruit in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. The spatial distribution of fishing in the two environmental subregions demonstrated a similar pattern to the yield per recruit outputs with greater landings, effort, and catch per unit effort in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. Understanding how spatial variability in stock dynamics translates to variability in fishery yield and distribution of effort is important to developing management plans that maximize fishing opportunities and conservation benefits at local scales.

  7. Landscape-scale spatial heterogeneity in phytodetrital cover and megafauna biomass in the abyss links to modest topographic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Kirsty J; Bett, Brian J; Durden, Jennifer M; Benoist, Noelie M A; Huvenne, Veerle A I; Jones, Daniel O B; Robert, Katleen; Ichino, Matteo C; Wolff, George A; Ruhl, Henry A

    2016-09-29

    Sinking particulate organic matter (POM, phytodetritus) is the principal limiting resource for deep-sea life. However, little is known about spatial variation in POM supply to the abyssal seafloor, which is frequently assumed to be homogenous. In reality, the abyss has a highly complex landscape with millions of hills and mountains. Here, we show a significant increase in seabed POM % cover (by ~1.05 times), and a large significant increase in megafauna biomass (by ~2.5 times), on abyssal hill terrain in comparison to the surrounding plain. These differences are substantially greater than predicted by current models linking water depth to POM supply or benthic biomass. Our observed variations in POM % cover (phytodetritus), megafauna biomass, sediment total organic carbon and total nitrogen, sedimentology, and benthic boundary layer turbidity, all appear to be consistent with topographically enhanced current speeds driving these enhancements. The effects are detectable with bathymetric elevations of only 10 s of metres above the surrounding plain. These results imply considerable unquantified heterogeneity in global ecology.

  8. Landscape-scale spatial heterogeneity in phytodetrital cover and megafauna biomass in the abyss links to modest topographic variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Kirsty J.; Bett, Brian J.; Durden, Jennifer M.; Benoist, Noelie M. A.; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Robert, Katleen; Ichino, Matteo C.; Wolff, George A.; Ruhl, Henry A.

    2016-09-01

    Sinking particulate organic matter (POM, phytodetritus) is the principal limiting resource for deep-sea life. However, little is known about spatial variation in POM supply to the abyssal seafloor, which is frequently assumed to be homogenous. In reality, the abyss has a highly complex landscape with millions of hills and mountains. Here, we show a significant increase in seabed POM % cover (by ~1.05 times), and a large significant increase in megafauna biomass (by ~2.5 times), on abyssal hill terrain in comparison to the surrounding plain. These differences are substantially greater than predicted by current models linking water depth to POM supply or benthic biomass. Our observed variations in POM % cover (phytodetritus), megafauna biomass, sediment total organic carbon and total nitrogen, sedimentology, and benthic boundary layer turbidity, all appear to be consistent with topographically enhanced current speeds driving these enhancements. The effects are detectable with bathymetric elevations of only 10 s of metres above the surrounding plain. These results imply considerable unquantified heterogeneity in global ecology.

  9. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Redding

    Full Text Available Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT, to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA, when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account

  10. A latent parameter node-centric model for spatial networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas D Larusso

    Full Text Available Spatial networks, in which nodes and edges are embedded in space, play a vital role in the study of complex systems. For example, many social networks attach geo-location information to each user, allowing the study of not only topological interactions between users, but spatial interactions as well. The defining property of spatial networks is that edge distances are associated with a cost, which may subtly influence the topology of the network. However, the cost function over distance is rarely known, thus developing a model of connections in spatial networks is a difficult task. In this paper, we introduce a novel model for capturing the interaction between spatial effects and network structure. Our approach represents a unique combination of ideas from latent variable statistical models and spatial network modeling. In contrast to previous work, we view the ability to form long/short-distance connections to be dependent on the individual nodes involved. For example, a node's specific surroundings (e.g. network structure and node density may make it more likely to form a long distance link than other nodes with the same degree. To capture this information, we attach a latent variable to each node which represents a node's spatial reach. These variables are inferred from the network structure using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We experimentally evaluate our proposed model on 4 different types of real-world spatial networks (e.g. transportation, biological, infrastructure, and social. We apply our model to the task of link prediction and achieve up to a 35% improvement over previous approaches in terms of the area under the ROC curve. Additionally, we show that our model is particularly helpful for predicting links between nodes with low degrees. In these cases, we see much larger improvements over previous models.

  11. A spatial analysis of variations in health access: linking geography, socio-economic status and access perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Alexis J; Brunsdon, Chris; Radburn, Robert

    2011-07-25

    This paper analyses the relationship between public perceptions of access to general practitioners (GPs) surgeries and hospitals against health status, car ownership and geographic distance. In so doing it explores the different dimensions associated with facility access and accessibility. Data on difficulties experienced in accessing health services, respondent health status and car ownership were collected through an attitudes survey. Road distances to the nearest service were calculated for each respondent using a GIS. Difficulty was related to geographic distance, health status and car ownership using logistic generalized linear models. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to explore the spatial non-stationarity in the results. Respondent long term illness, reported bad health and non-car ownership were found to be significant predictors of difficulty in accessing GPs and hospitals. Geographic distance was not a significant predictor of difficulty in accessing hospitals but was for GPs. GWR identified the spatial (local) variation in these global relationships indicating locations where the predictive strength of the independent variables was higher or lower than the global trend. The impacts of bad health and non-car ownership on the difficulties experienced in accessing health services varied spatially across the study area, whilst the impacts of geographic distance did not. Difficulty in accessing different health facilities was found to be significantly related to health status and car ownership, whilst the impact of geographic distance depends on the service in question. GWR showed how these relationships were varied across the study area. This study demonstrates that the notion of access is a multi-dimensional concept, whose composition varies with location, according to the facility being considered and the health and socio-economic status of the individual concerned.

  12. A spatial analysis of variations in health access: linking geography, socio-economic status and access perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background This paper analyses the relationship between public perceptions of access to general practitioners (GPs) surgeries and hospitals against health status, car ownership and geographic distance. In so doing it explores the different dimensions associated with facility access and accessibility. Methods Data on difficulties experienced in accessing health services, respondent health status and car ownership were collected through an attitudes survey. Road distances to the nearest service were calculated for each respondent using a GIS. Difficulty was related to geographic distance, health status and car ownership using logistic generalized linear models. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to explore the spatial non-stationarity in the results. Results Respondent long term illness, reported bad health and non-car ownership were found to be significant predictors of difficulty in accessing GPs and hospitals. Geographic distance was not a significant predictor of difficulty in accessing hospitals but was for GPs. GWR identified the spatial (local) variation in these global relationships indicating locations where the predictive strength of the independent variables was higher or lower than the global trend. The impacts of bad health and non-car ownership on the difficulties experienced in accessing health services varied spatially across the study area, whilst the impacts of geographic distance did not. Conclusions Difficulty in accessing different health facilities was found to be significantly related to health status and car ownership, whilst the impact of geographic distance depends on the service in question. GWR showed how these relationships were varied across the study area. This study demonstrates that the notion of access is a multi-dimensional concept, whose composition varies with location, according to the facility being considered and the health and socio-economic status of the individual concerned. PMID:21787394

  13. Spatial variation in keystone effects: Small mammal diversity associated with black-tailed prairie dog colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cully, J.F.; Collinge, S.K.; Van Nimwegen, R. E.; Ray, C.; Johnson, W.C.; Thiagarajan, Bala; Conlin, D.B.; Holmes, B.E.

    2010-01-01

    Species with extensive geographic ranges may interact with different species assemblages at distant locations, with the result that the nature of the interactions may vary spatially. Black-tailed prairie dogs Cynomys ludovicianus occur from Canada to Mexico in grasslands of the western Great Plains of North America. Black-tailed prairie dogs alter vegetation and dig extensive burrow systems that alter grassland habitats for plants and other animal species. These alterations of habitat justify the descriptor " ecological engineer," and the resulting changes in species composition have earned them status as a keystone species. We examined the impact of black-tailed prairie dogs on small mammal assemblages by trapping at on- and off-colony locations at eight study areas across the species' geographic range. We posed 2 nested hypotheses: 1) prairie dogs function as a keystone species for other rodent species; and 2) the keystone role varies spatially. Assuming that it does, we asked what are the sources of the variation? Black-tailed prairie dogs consistently functioned as a keystone species in that there were strong statistically significant differences in community composition on versus off prairie dog colonies across the species range in prairie grassland. Small mammal species composition varied along both latitudinal and longitudinal gradients, and species richness varied from 4 to 11. Assemblages closer together were more similar; such correlations approximately doubled when including only on- or off-colony grids. Black-tailed prairie dogs had a significant effect on associated rodent assemblages that varied regionally, dependent upon the composition of the local rodent species pool. Over the range of the black-tailed prairie dog, on-colony rodent richness and evenness were less variable, and species composition was more consistent than off-colony assemblages. ?? 2010 The Authors.

  14. Environmental changes and zooplankton temporal and spatial variation in a disturbed Brazilian coastal lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branco, C W C; Kozlowsky-Suzuki, B; Esteves, F A

    2007-05-01

    The Imboassica lagoon, located in the Municipality of Macaé (RJ), is separated from the sea by a sand bar, and its surroundings are partially occupied by residential areas. This coastal lagoon has undergone environmental degradation due to sewage input and artificial sand bar openings. The temporal and spatial variation of environmental variables and zooplankton were studied monthly for four years. There were five artificial openings of the sand bar during the period of study, mostly in the rainy season. Besides osmotic changes, these events caused the drainage of the water of the lagoon into the sea, loss of total organic nitrogen, and an increase of total phosphorus. The zooplankton community of Imboassica lagoon included freshwater and marine taxa, holoplanktonic, meroplanktonic and nectobenthonic forms. Polychaeta, Bivalvia and Gastropoda larvae, and the taxa of Rotifera Hexarthra spp., Lecane bulla, Synchaeta bicornis, nauplii of Cyclopoida and Calanoida copepods were considered constant taxa. Distinct zooplankton assemblages were found during zooplankton spatial surveys in oligohaline and mesohaline conditions. The successful zooplankton populations were either favored by the disturbance of the sand bar opening, such as the veligers of the gastropod Heleobia australis, or capable of fast recovery after the closing of the sand bar, during the succession from a marine into an oligohaline environment, such as Hexarthra spp.. Such populations seemed well adapted to the stress conditions usually found in the lagoon due to osmotic changes, column mixing, nutrient input, and high fish predation pressure. Rare species in the community, such as Moina minuta, presented population increases all over the lagoon under oligohaline conditions.

  15. Environmental changes and zooplankton temporal and spatial variation in a disturbed brazilian coastal lagoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CWC. Branco

    Full Text Available The Imboassica lagoon, located in the Municipality of Macaé (RJ, is separated from the sea by a sand bar, and its surroundings are partially occupied by residential areas. This coastal lagoon has undergone environmental degradation due to sewage input and artificial sand bar openings. The temporal and spatial variation of environmental variables and zooplankton were studied monthly for four years. There were five artificial openings of the sand bar during the period of study, mostly in the rainy season. Besides osmotic changes, these events caused the drainage of the water of the lagoon into the sea, loss of total organic nitrogen, and an increase of total phosphorus. The zooplankton community of Imboassica lagoon included freshwater and marine taxa, holoplanktonic, meroplanktonic and nectobenthonic forms. Polychaeta, Bivalvia and Gastropoda larvae, and the taxa of Rotifera Hexarthra spp., Lecane bulla, Synchaeta bicornis, nauplii of Cyclopoida and Calanoida copepods were considered constant taxa. Distinct zooplankton assemblages were found during zooplankton spatial surveys in oligohaline and mesohaline conditions. The successful zooplankton populations were either favored by the disturbance of the sand bar opening, such as the veligers of the gastropod Heleobia australis, or capable of fast recovery after the closing of the sand bar, during the succession from a marine into an oligohaline environment, such as Hexarthra spp.. Such populations seemed well adapted to the stress conditions usually found in the lagoon due to osmotic changes, column mixing, nutrient input, and high fish predation pressure. Rare species in the community, such as Moina minuta, presented population increases all over the lagoon under oligohaline conditions.

  16. Spatial and seasonal variations of the air pollution index and a driving factors analysis in china.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Hong-Yue; Li, Hai-Rong; Yang, Lin-Sheng; Li, Yong-Hua; Wang, Wu-Yi; Yan, Ya-Chen

    2014-11-01

    In this study, the daily air pollution index (API) of 110 cities based on ground monitoring was conducted on the 2011 data set from the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China. The pollutant concentrations, seasonal variations, and spatial autocorrelations were evaluated. The results show that the major principal pollutants in China are inhalable particles. In addition, the total number of clean days (API ≤ 50) is apparently smaller in the northern cities than in the southern cities as a result of fuel utilization and large-scale organized central heating. Seasonally, air pollution is most severe in winter and is caused by low-frequency rainfall, strong northwest winds, dry climate, and high energy consumption; this is followed by spring, which is a season of frequent sandstorms. According to spatial autocorrelation analysis, clusters with high API value agglomeration (High-High clusters) are mainly concentrated in the middle and northern parts of China, whereas clusters with low API agglomeration (Low-Low clusters) are principally concentrated in the southern parts of China due to a favorable climate and abundant rainfall. Meteorological data, including wind speed and temperature, have great impacts on API. The air quality effects of industrial structure, energy use, urban greening, and traffic congestion were also analyzed. With the ecological function of purifying the air, industries that use natural resources and urban greening could help to reduce API, whereas secondary industry and gas use, which have a positive coefficient, increase the API value. The risk of exposure to poor air quality is largest in the winter, smallest in the summer, and remains relatively unchanged in the spring and autumn. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF PAH PROPERTIES IN M17SW REVEALED BY SPITZER /IRS SPECTRAL MAPPING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamagishi, M. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara 252-5210 (Japan); Kaneda, H.; Ishihara, D.; Oyabu, S.; Suzuki, T.; Nishimura, A.; Kohno, M. [Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan); Onaka, T.; Ohashi, S. [Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Nagayama, T.; Matsuo, M. [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-35 Korimoto, Kagoshima 890-0065 (Japan); Umemoto, T.; Minamidani, T.; Fujita, S. [Nobeyama Radio Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), National Institutes of Natural Sciences (NINS), 462-2, Nobeyama, Minamimaki, Minamisaku, Nagano 384-1305 (Japan); Tsuda, Y., E-mail: yamagish@ir.isas.jaxa.jp [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Meisei University, 2-1-1 Hodokubo, Hino, Tokyo 191-0042 (Japan)

    2016-12-20

    We present Spitzer /IRS mid-infrared spectral maps of the Galactic star-forming region M17 as well as IRSF/SIRIUS Br γ and Nobeyama 45 m/FOREST {sup 13}CO ( J = 1–0) maps. The spectra show prominent features due to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at wavelengths of 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, 11.3, 12.0, 12.7, 13.5, and 14.2  μ m. We find that the PAH emission features are bright in the region between the H ii region traced by Br γ and the molecular cloud traced by {sup 13}CO, supporting that the PAH emission originates mostly from photo-dissociation regions. Based on the spatially resolved Spitzer /IRS maps, we examine spatial variations of the PAH properties in detail. As a result, we find that the interband ratio of PAH 7.7  μ m/PAH 11.3  μ m varies locally near M17SW, but rather independently of the distance from the OB stars in M17, suggesting that the degree of PAH ionization is mainly controlled by local conditions rather than the global UV environments determined by the OB stars in M17. We also find that the interband ratios of the PAH 12.0  μ m, 12.7  μ m, 13.5  μ m, and 14.2  μ m features to the PAH 11.3  μ m feature are high near the M17 center, which suggests structural changes of PAHs through processing due to intense UV radiation, producing abundant edgy irregular PAHs near the M17 center.

  18. Spatial and temporal variations in fish assemblage: testing the zonation concept in small reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Baumgartner

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Large reservoirs usually present spatial gradients in fish assemblage, distinguishing three strata (littoral, pelagic, and bathypelagic along the vertical and horizontal axes, and three zones (fluvial, transitional, and lacustrine along the longitudinal axis. The main objective of this study was to assess if small reservoirs also present the spatial gradients in fish assemblage attributes and structure as already observed in large reservoirs. Fish surveys were conducted quarterly, from 2003 to 2008, in the Mourão Reservoir (Mourão River, Paraná, Brazil, using gillnets with different mesh sizes, arranged in all strata of all three zones. Community attributes (species richness and evenness were calculated for each sample, and differences were tested using three-way ANOVA (factors: zone, strata, year. Community composition was summarized using Correspondence Analysis (CA and differences were tested with three-way ANOVA for each axis, controlling the same three factors. Because of the high variability in reservoir water level through time, all analyses were made considering temporal variations. Species richness presented a decreasing trend from fluvial to lacustrine zones, and higher values in littoral strata, possibly because upper reaches and littoral regions provide better conditions for fish to feed and to reproduce. Evenness was considerably low, presenting high variability, and no evident pattern. The expected longitudinal gradient was not found in this study indicating longitudinal similarity, contrary to observed in large reservoirs. Vertical and horizontal gradients were observed in all sampling stations, indicating that abiotic and biotic conditions are influencing fish distributions within the reservoir.

  19. Spatial and temporal variation of water quality in the coastal lagoons of Sinaloa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paez-Osuna, F.; Lopez-Aguiar, L. K.; Del Río-Chuljak, A.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.

    2007-05-01

    The Mexican state of Sinaloa has 656 km of coastline and 221,600 ha of coastal lagoons, and is characterized by a high fishing and agriculture activity. It is well known that agricultural activities constitute a major factor affecting the water quality in the coastal waters. The current study focused on the 6 more important coastal lagoons of Sinaloa (Topolobampo-Ohuira-Santa María, Navachiste-San Ignacio-Macapule, Santa María-La Reforma, Altata-Ensenada del Pabellón, Ceuta and Teacapán-Agua Brava) with the aim to evaluate the water quality spatial and temporal variation at the lagoons (physico-chemical parameters, nutrients (N, P and Si), dissolved oxygen, total suspended solids and chlorophyll a) and to assess its eutrophication status. The water samples were collected in several stations at each lagoon (between 9 and 23 stations depending on the lagoon area) at low and high tides, during three different weather periods (dry-warm, rainy and dry-cold seasons) between May 2004 and April 2005. Mean concentrations of nutrients (μM), dissolved oxygen (mg/L) and chlorophyll a (mg/m3) obtained for each variable were comparable between lagoons (total N=51±45; total P= 2.5±1.5; Si=23±31; DO=6.7±1.8; Chll=1.7±1.9) although seasonal and spatial differences were observed at each lagoon. The nutrient concentrations measured fell in the typical concentration intervals for coastal lagoons; however, critical sampling points were identified and related to direct discharges of untreated effluents from municipal wastes, aquaculture farms and agriculture drain ditches.

  20. Temporal and Spatial Variation in, and Population Exposure to, Summertime Ground-Level Ozone in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hui; Zheng, Youfei; Li, Ting; Wei, Li; Guan, Qing

    2018-03-29

    Ground-level ozone pollution in Beijing has been causing concern among the public due to the risks posed to human health. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of, and investigated population exposure to, ground-level ozone. We analyzed hourly ground-level ozone data from 35 ambient air quality monitoring sites, including urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites, during the summer in Beijing from 2014 to 2017. The results showed that the four-year mean ozone concentrations for urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites were 95.1, 99.8, 95.9, and 74.2 μg/m³, respectively. A total of 44, 43, 45, and 43 days exceeded the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold for ground-level ozone in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. The mean ozone concentration was higher in suburban sites than in urban sites, and the traffic monitoring sites had the lowest concentration. The diurnal variation in ground-level ozone concentration at the four types of monitoring sites displayed a single-peak curve. The peak and valley values occurred at 3:00-4:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m., respectively. Spatially, ground-level ozone concentrations decreased in gradient from the north to the south. Population exposure levels were calculated based on ground-level ozone concentrations and population data. Approximately 50.38%, 44.85%, and 48.49% of the total population of Beijing were exposed to ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the Chinese NAAQS threshold in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

  1. Spatial pattern of diarrhea based on regional economic and environment by spatial autoregressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy

    2014-10-01

    The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.

  2. How does spatial study design influence density estimates from spatial capture-recapture models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahel Sollmann

    Full Text Available When estimating population density from data collected on non-invasive detector arrays, recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR models present an advance over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement. While these models should be more robust to changes in trapping designs, they have not been well tested. Here we investigate how the spatial arrangement and size of the trapping array influence parameter estimates for SCR models. We analysed black bear data collected with 123 hair snares with an SCR model accounting for differences in detection and movement between sexes and across the trapping occasions. To see how the size of the trap array and trap dispersion influence parameter estimates, we repeated analysis for data from subsets of traps: 50% chosen at random, 50% in the centre of the array and 20% in the South of the array. Additionally, we simulated and analysed data under a suite of trap designs and home range sizes. In the black bear study, we found that results were similar across trap arrays, except when only 20% of the array was used. Black bear density was approximately 10 individuals per 100 km(2. Our simulation study showed that SCR models performed well as long as the extent of the trap array was similar to or larger than the extent of individual movement during the study period, and movement was at least half the distance between traps. SCR models performed well across a range of spatial trap setups and animal movements. Contrary to non-spatial capture-recapture models, they do not require the trapping grid to cover an area several times the average home range of the studied species. This renders SCR models more appropriate for the study of wide-ranging mammals and more flexible to design studies targeting multiple species.

  3. Spatial variation in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes under the tectonic framework in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, S. Mostafa

    2017-10-01

    Spatial variations of seismic energy released and b-value over the Middle East region are investigated based on a seismicity catalog from 1995 to 2007. The goal is to use these seismic parameters and based on other geodetic and geophysical observations, such as GPS measurements, strain rate model, fault distribution, focal mechanism, crustal model, Q model, and gravity measurements, etc., to uncover spatial patterns that seem anomalous. Areas of high energy released (cumulative) seem to correspond to the areas of relatively high b-values. Areas of high energy released and high b-values seem to correspond very well with the location of continental collision where earthquake activities are high. The divergent boundary between Arabia and African plates and subduction zone at Makran seem to correspond to low to moderate energy release. Northern Pamir, Azerbaijan-Caucasus, the lower part of Zagros Mountains, eastern Turkey, Owen Fracture Zone, Strait of Bob-el-Mandeb, and south of the Sulaiman Shear Zone seem to correspond to high cumulative energy-released, high strain rate, high b-values, and high fault density. While, the central and eastern Iran, southern Zagros, northern Pakistan, Gulf of Aden, Alborz, southwest of the Caspian Sea, western Caucasus and Kopeh-Dagh seem to correspond with lower b-values. The cross-section map for Hindu-Kush shows general decreasing of the b-values with depth, however, a region of high b-value is observed underneath Pamir at depths from 170 to 230 km. This anomaly region can be due to dehydration of Pamir crustal slab at depth.

  4. Spatial Modeling Tools for Cell Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-10-01

    of the cells total volume. The cytosol contains thousands of enzymes that are responsible for the catalyzation of glycolysis and gluconeogenesis ... dog , swine and pig models [Pantely, 1990, 1991; Stanley 1992]. In these studies, blood flow through the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary...perfusion. In conclusion, even thought our model falls within the (rather large) error bounds of experimental dog , pig and swine models, the

  5. A spatial analysis of county-level variation in syphilis and gonorrhea in Guangdong Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas X Tan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Sexually transmitted infections (STI have made a resurgence in many rapidly developing regions of southern China, but there is little understanding of the social changes that contribute to this spatial distribution of STI. This study examines county-level socio-demographic characteristics associated with syphilis and gonorrhea in Guangdong Province.This study uses linear regression and spatial lag regression to determine county-level (n = 97 socio-demographic characteristics associated with a greater burden of syphilis, gonorrhea, and a combined syphilis/gonorrhea index. Data were obtained from the 2005 China Population Census and published public health data. A range of socio-demographic variables including gross domestic product, the Gender Empowerment Measure, standard of living, education level, migrant population and employment are examined. Reported syphilis and gonorrhea cases are disproportionately clustered in the Pearl River Delta, the central region of Guangdong Province. A higher fraction of employed men among the adult population, higher fraction of divorced men among the adult population, and higher standard of living (based on water availability and people per room are significantly associated with higher STI cases across all three models. Gross domestic product and gender inequality measures are not significant predictors of reported STI in these models.Although many ecological studies of STIs have found poverty to be associated with higher reported STI, this analysis found a greater number of reported syphilis cases in counties with a higher standard of living. Spatially targeted syphilis screening measures in regions with a higher standard of living may facilitate successful control efforts. This analysis also reinforces the importance of changing male sexual behaviors as part of a comprehensive response to syphilis control in China.

  6. Consequences of variations in spatial turbulence characteristics for fatigue life time of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, G.C.

    1998-09-01

    The fatigue loading of turbines situated in complex terrain is investigated in order to determine the crucial parameters in the spatial structure of the turbulence in such situations. The parameter study is performed by means of numerical calculations, and it embraces three different wind turbine types, representing a pitch controlled concept, a stall controlled concept, and a stall controlled concept with an extremely flexible tower. For each of the turbine concepts, the fatigue load sensibility to the selected turbulence characteristics are investigated for three different mean wind speeds at hub height. The selected mean wind speeds represent the linear-, the stall-, and the post stall aerodynamic region for the stall controlled turbines and analogously the unregulated-, the partly regulated-, and the fully regulated regime for the pitch controlled turbine. Denoting the turbulence component in the mean wind direction by u, the lateral turbulence component by v, and the vertical turbulence component by w, the selected turbulence characteristics comprise the u-turbulence length scale, the ratio between the v- and w-turbulence intensities and the u-turbulence intensity, the uu-coherence decay factor, and finally the u-v and u-w cross-correlations. The turbulence length scale in the mean wind direction gives rise to significant modification of the fatigue loading on all the investigated wind turbine concepts, but for the other selected parameter variations, large individual differences exists between the turbines. With respect to sensitivity to the performed parameter variations, the Vestas V39 wind turbine is the most robust of the investigated turbines. The Nordtank 500/37 turbine, equipped with the (artificial) soft tower, is by far the most sensitive of the investigated turbine concepts - also much more sensitive than the conventional Nordtank 500/37 turbine equipped with a traditional tower. (au) 2 tabs., 43 ills., 7 refs.

  7. Temporal and spatial variations in road traffic noise for different frequency components in metropolitan Taichung, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ven-Shing; Lo, Ei-Wen; Liang, Chih-Hsiang; Chao, Keh-Ping; Bao, Bo-Ying; Chang, Ta-Yuan

    2016-12-01

    Road traffic noise exposure has been associated with auditory and non-auditory health effects, but few studies report noise characteristics. This study determines 24-h noise levels and analyzes their frequency components to investigate associations between seasons, meteorology, land-use types, and traffic. We set up 50 monitoring stations covering ten different land-use types and conducted measurements at three times of the year to obtain 24-h-average A-weighted equivalent noise levels (L Aeq , 24h ) and frequency analyses from 2013 to 2014 in Taichung, Taiwan. Information on land-use types, road parameters, traffic flow rates, and meteorological variables was also collected for analysis with the annual averages of road traffic noise and its frequency components. The annual average L Aeq , 24h in Taichung was 66.4 ± 4.7 A-weighed decibels (dBA). Significant differences in L Aeq , 24h and frequency components were observed between land-use types (all p-values Road width, traffic flow rates, and land-use types were significantly associated with annual average L Aeq , 24h (all p-values traffic (Spearman's coefficient = 0.795) and the highest prediction in the multiple linear regression (R 2  = 0.803; adjusted R 2  = 0.765). These findings reveal the spatial variation in road traffic noise exposure in Taichung. The highest correlation and predictive capacity was observed between this variation and noise levels at 125 Hz. We recommend that governmental agencies should take actions to reduce noise levels from traffic vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Energy Balance Closure across FLUXNET Research Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, T. F. M.; CUI, W.

    2017-12-01

    The surface energy balance at most measurement sites is not closed and the reason behind the discrepancy between available energy and output energy is always under debate. Based on the FLUXNET database and MODIS product, this study analyzed the energy balance closure (EBC) of around 100 sites covering nine vegetation types in different latitudes and explored the possible relationships between EBC and environmental variables. The results showed that EBC is closely related with precipitation, friction velocity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). The EBC, computed at 30-min intervals, of different land covers increased with the friction velocity and was highest when the air temperature was between 10 and 20 and the VPD was less than 5 hPa. There was no obvious difference in the seasonal variation of EBC among different land covers. However, for most land covers in the boreal region, the worst EBC usually occurred in November, December and January when EVI was minimum, and the best closure occurred in June and July when EVI was maximum. Moreover, the EBC in the lower latitude was better than that in higher latitude, which could be related with the large uncertainty in ground heat flux measurement due to soil freezing and thawing in the high latitude. This study evaluated the temporal and spatial variations of EBC and investigated the physical explanation behind the energy imbalance based on vegetation growth and climates in different latitudes. It shed some insights regarding the energy imbalance issue and the energy flux between the atmosphere and land surface.

  9. Spatial variation in background mortality among dominant coral taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Pisapia

    Full Text Available Even in the absence of major disturbances (e.g., cyclones, bleaching, corals are consistently subject to high levels of background mortality, which undermines individual fitness and resilience of coral colonies. Partial mortality may impact coral response to climate change by reducing colony ability to recover between major acute stressors. This study quantified proportion of injured versus uninjured colonies (the prevalence of injuries and instantaneous measures of areal extent of injuries across individual colonies (the severity of injuries, in four common coral species along the Great Barrier Reef in Australia: massive Porites, encrusting Montipora, Acropora hyacinthus and Pocillopora damicornis. A total of 2,276 adult colonies were surveyed three latitudinal sectors, nine reefs and 27 sites along 1000 km2 on the Great Barrier Reef. The prevalence of injuries was very high, especially for Porites spp (91% and Montipora encrusting (85% and varied significantly, but most lay at small spatial scales (e.g., among colonies positioned <10-m apart. Similarly, severity of background partial mortality was surprisingly high (between 5% and 21% but varied greatly among colonies within the same site and habitat. This study suggests that intraspecific variation in partial mortality between adjacent colonies may be more important than variation between colonies in different latitudinal sectors or reefs. Differences in the prevalence and severity of background partial mortality have significant ramifications for coral capacity to cope with increasing acute disturbances, such as climate-induced coral bleaching. These data are important for understanding coral responses to increasing stressors, and in particular for predicting their capacity to recover between subsequent disturbances.

  10. Spatial modelling with R-INLA: A review

    KAUST Repository

    Bakka, Haakon

    2018-02-18

    Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R-INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R-INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Mat\\\\\\'ern Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modelling with R-INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight-forward approaches for non-stationary spatial models and non-separable space-time models.

  11. Spatial variation of dissolved organic matter composition and characteristics in an urbanized watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, C.; Li, M.

    2013-12-01

    Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a chemically complex mixture of organic polymers that plays an important role in river ecosystems and originates from various sources. Some DOMs are autochthonous originating through phytoplankton and microbial activity in situ. On the other hand, some DOMs are allochthonous which are transported to river from the surrounding watershed by natural or anthropogenic activities. The studies of DOM in river are usually conducted at the watershed scale; however, factors of local spatial scale affecting DOM composition also need to take into consideration for the study of DOM in an urbanized watershed. Through increasing urbanization, changes in a watershed occur not only in land use patterns but also in river channel characteristics. The objective of this study is to investigate effects of different river channel characteristics and patterns on changes in DOM source and composition. In this study, we chose three tributaries of Tamsui river in Taiwan according to its land use pattern and river channel characteristics. At each sub-basin, river water samples were sampled from three study sites. River water DOM was measured by using optical measurements of UV absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy. Water samples were also collected for laboratory analysis of different water quality parameters. From our study sites, they are from three sub-basins which are in the similar physical environments but with different river channel types: the highly channelized Keelung river, the less channelized Xindian river, and less channelized Dahan river with five human-made wetlands. From the upstream to the urbanized downstream, composition of DOM showed variation among different sampled sites. In all three sub-basins, the trends of 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and suspended solids (SS) are also different. The changes in DOM source and composition as well as different water quality parmaters occur at the local spatial-scale depended on their

  12. Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

    2015-03-01

    System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

  13. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Timothy S.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Page, C. David; Buckingham, William R.; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J.; Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Arndt, Brian G.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Guilbert, Theresa W.

    2014-01-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin’s Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5–50 years over a three-year period. Each patient’s ...

  14. Spatial modeling of bicycle activity at signalized intersections

    OpenAIRE

    Strauss, Jillian; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to investigate the link between bicycle activity and built environment, road and transit network characteristics, and bicycle facilities while also accounting for spatial autocorrelation between intersections. The methodology includes the normalization of manual cyclist counts to average seasonal daily volumes (ASDV), taking into account temporal variations and using hourly, daily, and monthly expansion factors obtained from automatic bicycle count data. To c...

  15. Spatial emission modelling for residential wood combustion in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Brandt, Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    model with the developed weighting factors (76 ton PM2.5) is in good agreement with the case study (95 ton PM2.5), and that the new model has improved the spatial emission distribution significantly compared to the previous model (284 ton PM2.5). Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was done...

  16. A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Skaugen

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE, parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G, whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN. The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall–runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD, and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985–2000 and validation period is 2000–2014. Results show that SD_G better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SD_G is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

  17. Spatial variation in vegetation structure coupled to plant available water determined by two-dimensional soil resistivity profiling in a Brazilian savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Joice N; Bustamante, Mercedes; Garcia-Montiel, Diana C; Caylor, Kelly K; Davidson, Eric A

    2007-08-01

    Tropical savannas commonly exhibit large spatial heterogeneity in vegetation structure. Fine-scale patterns of soil moisture, particularly in the deeper soil layers, have not been well investigated as factors possibly influencing vegetation patterns in savannas. Here we investigate the role of soil water availability and heterogeneity related to vegetation structure in an area of the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado). Our objective was to determine whether horizontal spatial variations of soil water are coupled with patterns of vegetation structure across tens of meters. We applied a novel methodological approach to convert soil electrical resistivity measurements along three 275-m transects to volumetric water content and then to estimates of plant available water (PAW). Structural attributes of the woody vegetation, including plant position, height, basal circumference, crown dimensions, and leaf area index, were surveyed within twenty-two 100-m(2) plots along the same transects, where no obvious vegetation gradients had been apparent. Spatial heterogeneity was evaluated through measurements of spatial autocorrelation in both PAW and vegetation structure. Comparisons with null models suggest that plants were randomly distributed over the transect with the greatest mean PAW and lowest PAW heterogeneity, and clustered in the driest and most heterogeneous transect. Plant density was positively related with PAW in the top 4 m of soil. The density-dependent vegetation attributes that are related to plot biomass, such as sum of tree heights per plot, exhibited spatial variation patterns that were remarkably similar to spatial variation of PAW in the top 4 m of soil. For PAW below 4 m depth, mean vegetation attributes, such as mean height, were negatively correlated with PAW, suggesting greater water uptake from the deep soil by plants of larger stature. These results are consistent with PAW heterogeneity being an important structuring factor in the plant distribution at the

  18. Can spatial data substitute temporal data in phenological modelling? A survey using birch flowering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochner, Susanne; Caffarra, Amelia; Menzel, Annette

    2013-12-01

    In addition to the evaluation of long-term series, the analysis of spatial gradients, such as urbanization gradients, may be helpful in assessing phenological responses to global warming. But are phenological responses of birch (Betula pendula Roth) assessed by temperature variations comparable over time and space and can spatially calibrated models predict long-term phenological data adequately? We calibrated and tested linear regression models and the process-based DORMPHOT model on phenological and temperature data sampled along an urbanization gradient in 2010 and 2011 in the German cities Munich and Ingolstadt (spatial data). Additionally, we analysed data from the German Meteorological Service for the period 1991-2010 (long-term data). The model comparison showed that the DORMPHOT model performed better than the linear model. Therefore, the importance of forcing and chilling sums as well as photoperiod, factors which were all considered in the DORMPHOT model, was evident. Models calibrated on spatial data produced good predictions of spatial data, but they were less adequate for predicting long-term data. Therefore, a time-for-space substitution might not always be appropriate. This finding was also confirmed by a comparison of temperature response rates. The rate of change in the spatial data (-4.4 days °C(-1)) did not match the changes observed in the long-term data (-1.9 days °C(-1)). Consequently, it is important not to generalize results derived from one specific study method, but their inherent methodological, spatial and temporal peculiarities have to be considered.

  19. Was Thebes Necessary? Contingency in Spatial Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Tim S.; Rivers, Ray J.

    2016-01-01

    When data are poor, we resort to theory modeling. This is a two-step process. We have first to identify the appropriate type of model for the system under consideration and then to tailor it to the specifics of the case. To understand settlement formation, which is the concern of this article, this involves choosing not only input parameter values such as site separations but also input functions that characterizes the ease of travel between sites. Although the generic behavior of the model i...

  20. Spatial-temporal analysis on climate variation in early Qing dynasty (17th -18th century) using China's chronological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kuan-Hui Elaine; Wang, Pao-Kuan; Fan, I.-Chun; Liao, Yi-Chun; Liao, Hsiung-Ming; Pai, Pi-Ling

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change in the form of extreme, variation, and short- or mid-term fluctuation is now widely conceived to challenge the survival of the human beings and the societies. Meanwhile, improving present and future climate modeling needs a comprehensive understanding of the past climate patterns. Although historical climate modeling has gained substantive progress in recent years based on the new findings from dynamical meteorology, phenology, or paleobiology, less known are the mid- to short-term variations or lower-frequency variabilities at different temporal scale and their regional expressions. Enabling accurate historical climate modeling would heavily rely on the robustness of the dataset that could carry specific time, location, and meteorological information in the continuous temporal and spatial chains. This study thus presents an important methodological innovation to reconstruct historical climate modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales through building a historical climate dataset, based on the Chinese chronicles compiled in a Zhang (2004) edited Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3,000 Years since Zhou Dynasty (1100BC). The dataset reserves the most delicate meteorological data with accurate time, location, meteorological event, duration, and other phonological, social and economic impact information, and is carefully digitalized, coded, and geo-referenced on the Geographical Information System based maps according to Tan's (1982) historical atlas in China. The research project, beginning in January 2015, is a collaborative work among scholars across meteorology, geography, and historical linguistics disciplines. The present research findings derived from the early 100+ years of the Qing dynasty include the following. First, the analysis is based on the sampling size, denoted as cities/counties, n=1398 across the Mainland China in the observation period. Second, the frequencies of precipitation, cold

  1. Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping of Human Brain Reflects Spatial Variation in Tissue Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Wu, Bing; Liu, Chunlei

    2011-01-01

    Image phase from gradient echo MRI provides a unique contrast that reflects brain tissue composition variations, such as iron and myelin distribution. Phase imaging is emerging as a powerful tool for the investigation of functional brain anatomy and disease diagnosis. However, the quantitative value of phase is compromised by its nonlocal and orientation dependent properties. There is an increasing need for reliable quantification of magnetic susceptibility, the intrinsic property of tissue. In this study, we developed a novel and accurate susceptibility mapping method that is also phase-wrap insensitive. The proposed susceptibility mapping method utilized two complementary equations: (1) the Fourier relationship of phase and magnetic susceptibility; and (2) the first-order partial derivative of the first equation in the spatial frequency domain. In numerical simulation, this method reconstructed the susceptibility map almost free of streaking artifact. Further, the iterative implementation of this method allowed for high quality reconstruction of susceptibility maps of human brain in vivo. The reconstructed susceptibility map provided excellent contrast of iron-rich deep nuclei and white matter bundles from surrounding tissues. Further, it also revealed anisotropic magnetic susceptibility in brain white matter. Hence, the proposed susceptibility mapping method may provide a powerful tool for the study of brain physiology and pathophysiology. Further elucidation of anisotropic magnetic susceptibility in vivo may allow us to gain more insight into the white matter microarchitectures. PMID:21224002

  2. Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblages in mangrove creek systems in Zanzibar (Tanzania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwandya, Augustine W.; Gullström, Martin; Andersson, Mathias H.; Öhman, Marcus C.; Mgaya, Yunus D.; Bryceson, Ian

    2010-11-01

    Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblage composition were studied in three non-estuarine mangrove creeks of Zanzibar (Tanzania). Fish were collected monthly for one year at three sites (lower, intermediate and upper reaches) in each creek using a seine net (each haul covering 170 m 2). Density, species number and diversity of fish were all higher at sites with dense cover of macrophytes (seagrass and macroalgae) than over unvegetated sandy sites. In general, fish assemblages mainly comprised juveniles of a few abundant taxa, e.g. Mugil cephalus, Mugilidae spp. and Leiognathus equulus at sites with mud substratum and Gerres oyena, Lethrinus harak and Sillago sihama at sites dominated by macrophytes. Multivariate analyses revealed significant separations in fish assemblage composition within the two creeks where the bottom substratum differed among sites. Overall, season seemed to have little effect on density, species number, diversity index ( H') and assemblage structure of fish. Water condition variables were also relatively stable across the season, although a short-term fluctuation primarily induced by decreased salinity, occurred during the heavy rains in April and May. Fish assemblage structure was not significantly affected by any of the abiotic factors tested. However, significant regressions were found between the other fish variables and environmental variables, but since these associations were mostly species-specific and generally inconsistent, we suggest that the overall distribution patterns of fish were mainly an effect of particular substrate preferences of fish species rather than contemporary water conditions.

  3. Spatial variation of temperature and indicative of the urban heat island in Chennai Metropolitan Area, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeganathan, Anushiya; Andimuthu, Ramachandran; Prasannavenkatesh, Ramachandran; Kumar, Divya Subash

    2016-01-01

    Heat island is the main product of urban climate, and one of the important problems of twenty-first century. Cities in tropical countries suffer extensively due to the urban heat island effect, and urban climate studies are necessary to improve the comfort level and city planning. Chennai is the tropical city; it is the fourth largest metropolis in India and one of the fastest growing economic and industrial growth centers in South Asia. The spatial distribution of heat intensity in Chennai Metropolitan Area was studied, and the influence of land use and green cover were analyzed in the present work. Mobile measurements were carried out throughout the study area using a grid network to represent various land use patterns of the city. The study revealed some heat and cool pockets within the city limit; the maximum intensities of temperature were noticed in the central core city and north Chennai, which are distinguished for their commercial centers and densely populated residential areas. In morning time, temperature differences between fringes and central parts of heat packets were in the range of 3-4.5 °C. Land use and green cover play a critical role in microclimate and influences it. Green cover has a significant negative correlation with observed microclimate variations. Thus, the study urges city administration, policy makers, and architects to take up effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in the city to make people more comfortable.

  4. Spatial and temporal variations of mercury levels in Okefenokee invertebrates: Southeast Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, Bagie M.; Batzer, Darold

    2008-01-01

    Accumulation of mercury in wetland ecosystems has raised concerns about impacts on wetland food webs. This study measured concentrations of mercury in invertebrates of the Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia, focusing on levels in amphipods, odonates, and crayfish. We collected and analyzed total mercury levels in these invertebrates from 32 sampling stations across commonly occurring sub-habitats. Sampling was conducted in December, May, and August over a two-year period. The highest levels of mercury were detected in amphipods, with total mercury levels often in excess of 20 ppm. Bioaccumulation pathways of mercury in invertebrates of the Okefenokee are probably complex; despite being larger and higher in the food chain, levels in odonates and crayfish were much lower than in amphipods. Mercury levels in invertebrates varied temporally with the highest levels detected in May. There was a lack of spatial variation in mercury levels which is consistent with aerial deposition of mercury. - This study measured mercury levels in invertebrates and found the highest levels in amphipods

  5. Spatial variation of modern pollen in Oregon and southern Washington, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minckley; Whitlock

    2000-10-01

    Surface sediments from 95 lakes provide information on the spatial variation of modern pollen spectra in Oregon and southern Washington. Percentages for 13 pollen types were compared within and between vegetation zones to characterize regional patterns of pollen spectra. The percentage data were also compared with climate variables to determine relationships between pollen percentages and regional climate gradients. The composition of modern pollen spectra corresponds well with the distribution of the pollen producers. Most pollen assemblages were generally dominated by Pinus, but those west of the Cascade Range were dominated by Alnus. Low percentages of Pseudotsuga/Larix, Tsuga mertensiana, Abies, and Picea pollen coincided with local occurrence of the trees. The distributions of the pollen data were arranged along gradients of temperature and effective moisture. West of the Cascade Range, Alnus, Tsuga heterophylla, Pseudotsuga/Larix, and Cupressaceae pollen were abundant and correlate well with moderate temperature and high effective moisture. In the shrub-steppe and woodlands east of the Cascade Range, where effective moisture is low, Artemisia, Cupressaceae, and Pinus pollen were dominant. At high elevations, Pinus, T. mertensiana, Abies, and Picea were common pollen types in areas with short growing seasons and high effective moisture. Pollen percentages collected from lake surface sediments, moss polsters, and soils were compared within a number of vegetation types to assess their similarity. The three types of sample yielded similar results for forested areas, but lake sediment samples from upper- and lower-treeline sites captured a more regional picture of the vegetation.

  6. Spatial and temporal variations and mobile source emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Quito, Ecuador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachtl, Megan V.; Durant, John L.; Perez, Carlos Paez; Oviedo, Jorge; Sempertegui, Fernando; Naumova, Elena N.; Griffiths, Jeffrey K.

    2009-01-01

    Motor vehicles are a major source of air pollution in Quito, Ecuador; however, little work has been done to characterize spatial and temporal variations in traffic-related pollutants, or to measure pollutants in vehicle emissions. We measured PAH continuously for one year at two residential sites in Quito, and PAH and traffic patterns for one week near a busy roadway. Morning rush-hour traffic and temperature inversions caused daily PAH maxima between 06:00 and 08:00. SO 2 , NO x , CO, and PM 2.5 behaved similarly. At the residential sites PAH levels during inversions were 2-3-fold higher than during the afternoon, and 10-16-fold higher than 02:00-03:00 when levels were lowest. In contrast, at the near-roadway site, PAH concentrations were 3-6-fold higher than at the residential sites, and the effects of inversions were less pronounced. Cars and buses accounted for >95% of PAH at the near-roadway site. Near-roadway PAH concentrations were comparable to other polluted cities. - Atmospheric temperature inversions and proximity to roadways strongly influence potential human exposure to ambient airborne PAH in Quito, Ecuador

  7. SO2 columns over China: Temporal and spatial variations using OMI and GOME-2 observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huanhuan, Yan; Liangfu, Chen; Lin, Su; Jinhua, Tao; Chao, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Enhancements of SO 2 column amounts due to anthropogenic emission sources over China were shown in this paper by using OMI and GOME-2 observations. The temporal and spatial variations of SO 2 columns over China were analyzed for the time period 2005–2010. Beijing and Chongqing showed a high concentration in the SO 2 columns, attributable to the use of coal for power generation in China and the characteristic of terrain and meteorology. The reduction of SO 2 columns over Beijing and surrounding provinces in 2008 was observed by OMI, which confirms the effectiveness of strict controls on pollutant emissions and motor vehicle traffic before and during 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The SO 2 columns over China from GOME-2 (0.2–0.5 DU) were lower than those from OMI (0.6–1 DU), but both showed a decrease in SO 2 columns over northern China since 2008 (except an increase in OMI SO 2 in 2010)

  8. Influence of spatial variation on countermeasures with special regards to animal food products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, G.; Kiefer, P.

    2000-07-01

    In the context of SAVE, soil and animal based countermeasures have been considered as well as human based ones: In this technical deliverable we have considered the following countermeasures: - Soil-plant transfer: The effectiveness of Ca, K, fertilisers and substances with a high cation exchange capacity on the transfer of radiocaesium from soil to plant for different soil types within Europe have been considered. In addition, the fertility status of soils will give an indication of the potential effectiveness of fertilisation. In this report the effect of K application in a specified area and a given contamination scenario is evaluated and demonstrated. - Plant-animal transfer: A wide range of countermeasures is available to directly reduce transfer of radionuclides to animals, and thereby animal products. The preferred option will always be the most cost effective and practically acceptable one, for both producers and consumers. In this report collection of animal based countermeasures for Cs, Sr and I with special respect to their acceptability, effectiveness and spatial variation is presented. The contribution and importance of countries in import and export of feedstuff used for animals is estimated based on trading information. (orig.)

  9. Modeling of Craniofacial Anatomy, Variation, and Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Signe Strann

    the two images. To elaborate further: a computational atlas of the average anatomy was constructed. Using non-rigid registration, image data from a subject is automatically transformed into the coordinate space of the atlas. In this process, all knowledge built into the atlas is transferred to the subject......-subject variation etc. Besides image registration, a volumetric segmentation method using graph cuts was developed and applied for intracranial volume estimation. Graph cut is a fast method for segmentation utilizing a suitable graph. Three different craniofacial anomalies were examined in this thesis: Cleft lip...

  10. Spatial and temporal variation of correlation between the Arctic total ozone and atmospheric temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Fuxiang; Ren, suling; Han, Shuangshuang; Zheng, xiangdong; Deng, xuejiao

    2017-04-01

    Daily total ozone and atmospheric temperature profile data in 2015 from the AIRS are used to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of the correlation between the Arctic atmospheric ozone and temperature. In the study, 11 lays atmospheric temperature profiles from the troposphere to the stratosphere are investigated. These layer heights are 20, 50, 70, 100, 200, 250, 300, 400, 500, 600 and 700 hPa respectively. The results show that a significant seasonal split exists in the correlation between the Arctic ozone and atmospheric temperature. Figure 1 shows the spatial and temporal variation of the coefficient between the atmospheric ozone and temperature at 50hPa. It can be seen from the figure that an obvious spatiotemporal difference exists in the correlation between the Arctic total ozone and atmospheric temperature in the lower stratosphere. First, the seasonal difference is very remarkable, which is shown as a significant positive correlation in most regions during winter and summer, while no correlation in the majority of regions occurs during spring and autumn, with a weak positive or negative correlation in a small number regions. Second, the spatial differences are also very obvious. The summer maximum correlation coefficient occurs in the Barents Sea and other locations at 0.8 and above, while the winter maximum occurs in the Baffin Bay area at 0.6 to 0.8. However, in a small number of regions, such as the land to the west of the Bering Strait in winter and the Arctic Ocean core area in summer, the correlation coefficients were unable to pass the significance test to show no correlation. At the same time, in spring and autumn, a positive correlation only occurs over a few low-latitude land areas, while over other Arctic areas, weak negative correlation exists. The differences in horizontal position are clearly related to the land-sea distribution, underlying surface characteristics, glacial melting, and other factors. In the troposphere, the ozone

  11. Spatial and Decadal Variations in Potential Evapotranspiration of China Based on Reanalysis Datasets during 1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjun Yao

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration (PET is an important indicator of atmospheric evaporation demand and has been widely used to characterize hydrological change. However, sparse observations of pan evaporation (EP prohibit the accurate characterization of the spatial and temporal patterns of PET over large spatial scales. In this study, we have estimated PET of China using the Penman-Monteith (PM method driven by gridded reanalysis datasets to analyze the spatial and decadal variations of PET in China during 1982–2010. The results show that the estimated PET has decreased on average by 3.3 mm per year (p < 0.05 over China during 1982–1993, while PET began to increase since 1994 by 3.4 mm per year (p < 0.05. The spatial pattern of the linear trend in PET of China illustrates that a widely significant increasing trend in PET appears during 1982–2010 in Northwest China, Central China, Northeast China and South China while there are no obvious variations of PET in other regions. Our findings illustrate that incident solar radiation (Rs is the largest contributor to the variation of PET in China, followed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD, air temperature (Tair and wind speed (WS. However, WS is the primary factor controlling inter-annual variation of PET over Northwest China.

  12. Monitoring temporal development of spatial soil water content variation: comparison of ground penetrating radar and time domain reflectometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, J.A.; Snepvangers, J.J.J.C.; Bouten, W.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    We compare the capability of ground penetrating radar (GPR) and time domain reflectometry (TDR) to assess the temporal development of spatial variation of surface volumetric water content. In the case of GPR, we measured surface water content with the ground wave, which is a direct wave between the

  13. Spatial and Temporal Self-Calibration of a Hydroeconomic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.; Hansen, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    Hydroeconomic modeling of water systems where risk and reliability of water supply are of critical importance must address explicitly how to model water supply uncertainty. When large fluctuations in annual precipitation and significant variation in flows by location are present, a model which solves with perfect foresight of future water conditions may be inappropriate for some policy and research questions. We construct a simulation-optimization model with limited foresight of future water conditions using positive mathematical programming and self-calibration techniques. This limited foresight netflow (LFN) model signals the value of storing water for future use and reflects a more accurate economic value of water at key locations, given that future water conditions are unknown. Failure to explicitly model this uncertainty could lead to undervaluation of storage infrastructure and contractual mechanisms for managing water supply risk. A model based on sequentially updated information is more realistic, since water managers make annual storage decisions without knowledge of yet to be realized future water conditions. The LFN model runs historical hydrological conditions through the current configuration of the California water system to determine the economically efficient allocation of water under current economic conditions and infrastructure. The model utilizes current urban and agricultural demands, storage and conveyance infrastructure, and the state's hydrological history to indicate the scarcity value of water at key locations within the state. Further, the temporal calibration penalty functions vary by year type, reflecting agricultural water users' ability to alter cropping patterns in response to water conditions. The model employs techniques from positive mathematical programming (Howitt, 1995; Howitt, 1998; Cai and Wang, 2006) to generate penalty functions that are applied to deviations from observed data. The functions are applied to monthly flows

  14. An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Y.; Yumoto, K.; Cardinal, M.G.; Fraser, B.J.; Hattori, P.; Kakinami, Y.; Liu, J.Y.; Lynn, K.J.W.; Marshall, R.; McNamara, D.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nikiforov, V.M.; Otadoy, R.E.; Ruhimat, M.; Shevtsov, B.M.; Shiokawa, K.; Abe, S.; Uozumi, T.; Yoshikawa, A.

    2011-01-01

    An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days (Kp ??? 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA, day of year DOY, lunar age LA, and local time LT. After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar-activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north-south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi-annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Sensor placement for calibration of spatially varying model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Paromita; Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a sensor placement optimization framework for the calibration of spatially varying model parameters. To account for the randomness of the calibration parameters over space and across specimens, the spatially varying parameter is represented as a random field. Based on this representation, Bayesian calibration of spatially varying parameter is investigated. To reduce the required computational effort during Bayesian calibration, the original computer simulation model is substituted with Kriging surrogate models based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the model response and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) of the spatially varying parameters. A sensor placement optimization problem is then formulated based on the Bayesian calibration to maximize the expected information gain measured by the expected Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence. The optimization problem needs to evaluate the expected K-L divergence repeatedly which requires repeated calibration of the spatially varying parameter, and this significantly increases the computational effort of solving the optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, an approximation for the posterior distribution is employed within the optimization problem to facilitate the identification of the optimal sensor locations using the simulated annealing algorithm. A heat transfer problem with spatially varying thermal conductivity is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  17. An Evolutionary Model of Spatial Competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Winter, Sidney G.

    to environmental change.  Formally, the model builds on the NK framework for organizational analysis, with firm policy choices and environmental conditions represented by segments of a string of N bits; it joins this structure to an abstract representation of space based on the idea of a cellular automaton......  This paper sets forth an evolutionary model in which diverse businesses, with diverse offerings, compete in a stylized physical space.  When a business firm attempts to expand its activity, so as to profit further from the capabilities it has developed, it necessarily does so in a "new location......" - sometimes close-by existing activity, but often not. The model representation reflects the fact that the physical space in which economic activity takes place is far from homogeneous. The firm then confronts both the challenge of replicating its routines and the hazard that existing routines may not work...

  18. On spatial mutation-selection models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kondratiev, Yuri, E-mail: kondrat@math.uni-bielefeld.de [Fakultät für Mathematik, Universität Bielefeld, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld (Germany); Kutoviy, Oleksandr, E-mail: kutoviy@math.uni-bielefeld.de, E-mail: kutovyi@mit.edu [Fakultät für Mathematik, Universität Bielefeld, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld (Germany); Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (United States); Minlos, Robert, E-mail: minl@iitp.ru; Pirogov, Sergey, E-mail: pirogov@proc.ru [IITP, RAS, Bolshoi Karetnyi 19, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-15

    We discuss the selection procedure in the framework of mutation models. We study the regulation for stochastically developing systems based on a transformation of the initial Markov process which includes a cost functional. The transformation of initial Markov process by cost functional has an analytic realization in terms of a Kimura-Maruyama type equation for the time evolution of states or in terms of the corresponding Feynman-Kac formula on the path space. The state evolution of the system including the limiting behavior is studied for two types of mutation-selection models.

  19. SPATIAL MODELLING FOR DESCRIBING SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN EASTERN CROATIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Bogunović

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to characterize the field-scale spatial variability and test several interpolation methods to identify the best spatial predictor of penetration resistance (PR, bulk density (BD and gravimetric water content (GWC in the silty loam soil in Eastern Croatia. The measurements were made on a 25 x 25-m grid which created 40 individual grid cells. Soil properties were measured at the center of the grid cell deep 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm. Results demonstrated that PR and GWC displayed strong spatial dependence at 0-10 cm BD, while there was moderate and weak spatial dependence of PR, BD and GWC at depth of 10-20 cm. Semi-variogram analysis suggests that future sampling intervals for investigated parameters can be increased to 35 m in order to reduce research costs. Additionally, interpolation models recorded similar root mean square values with high predictive accuracy. Results suggest that investigated properties do not have uniform interpolation method implying the need for spatial modelling in the evaluation of these soil properties in Eastern Croatia.

  20. [Estimation of PM2.5 Concentration over the Yangtze Delta Using Remote Sensing: Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian-hui; Jiang, Hong

    2015-09-01

    Satellite remote sensing retrieved aerosol optical thickness is widely used to monitor surface PM2.5 concentration. In order to monitor PM2.5 by remote sensing in the Yangtze delta, estimate model of PM2.5 concentration was constructed based on MODIS AOT, PM2.5 concentration data of the 36 ground air quality observation sites and meteorological data in 2013. Afterwards, the model estimated PM2.5 was validated by PM2.5 concentration data from the 17 ground air quality observation sites, and the results showed that the model estimation was higher. The correlation coefficient value of R2 between model estimation of PM2.5 concentration and the value of the ground monitoring of spring, summer, autumn and winter were 0. 45, 0. 50, 0. 58 and 0. 52, respectively. The variation characteristics of temporal and spatial was analyzed based on the long time PM2.5 data together with model estimated, and an increase trend of PM2.5 concentration was observed from 2000 to 2013, with the maximum concentration of PM2.5 (66. 2 µg.m-3 ± 19. 3 µg.m-3) in February and minimum in December (22.6 µg.m-3 ± 5. 9 µg.m-3). In addition, it was found that the distribution of PM2.5 concentration was of obvious features, displaying high value in south and low in north. Mass concentration of PM2.5 was peaked in the zone of urban agglomeration which was grouped to a delta-shaped region by Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing, while the low value areas were in the forest away from city. The result suggested that MODIS AOT and meteorological data can be used to monitor regional PM2.5 by the established multi-linear regression model.

  1. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Primary Ecological Drivers of Anopheles sinensis Human Biting Rates in Malaria Epidemic-Prone Regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Ma, Aimin; Huang, Jixia; Xia, Zhigui; Feng, Xinyu; Wang, Jinfeng

    2015-01-01

    Background Robust malaria vector surveillance is essential for optimally selecting and targeting vector control measures. Sixty-two vector surveillance sites were established between 2005 and 2008 by the national malaria surveillance program in China to measure Anopheles sinensis human biting rates. Using these data to determine the primary ecological drivers of malaria vector human biting rates in malaria epidemic-prone regions of China will allow better targeting of vector control resources in space and time as the country aims to eliminate malaria. Methods We analyzed data from 62 malaria surveillance sentinel sites from 2005 to 2008. Linear mixed effects models were used to identify the primary ecological drivers for Anopheles sinensis human biting rates as well as to explore the spatial-temporal variation of relevant factors at surveillance sites throughout China. Results Minimum semimonthly temperature (β = 2.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.07- 3.92), enhanced vegetation index (β =1.07; 95% CI 0.11–2.03), and paddy index (the percentage of rice paddy field in the total cultivated land area of each site) (β = 0.86; 95% CI 0.17–1.56) were associated with greater An. Sinensis human biting rates, while increasing distance to the nearest river was associated with lower An. Sinensis human biting rates (β = −1.47; 95% CI −2.88, −0.06). The temporal variation (σt02=1.35) in biting rates was much larger than the spatial variation (σs02=0.83), with 19.3% of temporal variation attributable to differences in minimum temperature and enhanced vegetation index and 16.9% of spatial variance due to distance to the nearest river and the paddy index. Discussion Substantial spatial-temporal variation in An. Sinensis human biting rates exists in malaria epidemic-prone regions of China, with minimum temperature and enhanced vegetation index accounting for the greatest proportion of temporal variation and distance to nearest river and paddy index accounting for

  2. Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Mariana M P B; Delean, Steven; Grayson, Jillian; Lavender, Sally; Logan, Murray; Marsh, Helene

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales.

  3. The geostatistic-based spatial distribution variations of soil salts under long-term wastewater irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyong; Yin, Shiyang; Liu, Honglu; Niu, Yong; Bao, Zhe

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine and evaluate the spatial changes in soil salinity by using geostatistical methods. The study focused on the suburb area of Beijing, where urban development led to water shortage and accelerated wastewater reuse to farm irrigation for more than 30 years. The data were then processed by GIS using three different interpolation techniques of ordinary kriging (OK), disjunctive kriging (DK), and universal kriging (UK). The normality test and overall trend analysis were applied for each interpolation technique to select the best fitted model for soil parameters. Results showed that OK was suitable for soil sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and Na(+) interpolation; UK was suitable for soil Cl(-) and pH; DK was suitable for soil Ca(2+). The nugget-to-sill ratio was applied to evaluate the effects of structural and stochastic factors. The maps showed that the areas of non-saline soil and slight salinity soil accounted for 6.39 and 93.61%, respectively. The spatial distribution and accumulation of soil salt were significantly affected by the irrigation probabilities and drainage situation under long-term wastewater irrigation.

  4. Properties of spatial Cox process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    Probabilistic properties of Cox processes of relevance for statistical modelling and inference are studied. Particularly, we study the most important classes of Cox processes, including log Gaussian Cox processes, shot noise Cox processes, and permanent Cox processes. We consider moment properties...... and point process operations such as thinning, displacements, and superpositioning. We also discuss how to simulate specific Cox processes....

  5. Modelling spatial density using continuous wavelet transforms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Space debris; wavelets; Mexican hat; Laplace distribution; random search; parameter estimation. ... Author Affiliations. D Sudheer Reddy1 N Gopal Reddy2 A K Anilkumar3. Digital Mapping and Modelling Division, Advanced Data Processing Research Institute, Secunderabad 500 009, India; Department of Mathematics, ...

  6. Modelling spatial density using continuous wavelet transforms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K ANILKUMAR3. 1Digital Mapping and Modelling Division, Advanced Data Processing Research .... probability of conjunction is very high and the miss distance between active satellite and debri object is less ... particularly helpful in tackling problems involving signal identification and detection of hidden transients (hard ...

  7. Modeling Cyclic Variation of Intracranial Pressure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Daley, M

    2001-01-01

    ...) recording during mechanical ventilation are due to cyclic extravascular compressional modulation primarily of the cerebral venous bed, an established isovolumetric model of cerebrospinal fluid...

  8. Permeability Variation Models for Unsaturated Coalbed Methane Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lv Yumin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A large number of models have been established to describe permeability variation with the depletion of reservoir pressure to date. However, no attempt has been made to draw enough attention to the difference in the effect of various factors on permeability variation in different production stages of unsaturated CoalBed Methane (CBM reservoirs. This paper summarizes the existing and common permeability models, determines the relationship between various effects (effective stress effect, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect and desorption characteristics of the recovery of unsaturated CBM reservoirs, then establishes two improved models to quantificationally describe permeability variation, and finally discusses the effects of various factors (gas saturation, cleat porosity, Poisson’s ratio and shrinkage coefficient on permeability variation. The results show that permeability variation during the recovery of unsaturated CBM reservoirs can be divided into two stages: the first one is that permeability variation is only affected by the effective stress effect, and the second is that permeability variation is affected by the combination of the effective stress effect, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect. In the second stage, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect play much more significant role than the effective stress effect, which leads to an increase in permeability with depletion of reservoir pressure. Sensitivity analysis of parameters in the improved models reveals that those parameters associated with gas saturation, such as gas content, reservoir pressure, Langmuir volume and Langmuir pressure, have a significant impact on permeability variation in the first stage, and the important parameters in the second stage are the gas content, reservoir pressure, Langmuir volume, Langmuir pressure, Poisson’s ratio, Young’s modulus and shrinkage coefficient during the depletion of reservoir pressure. A comparative

  9. A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.

    1989-01-01

    A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.

  10. Spatial downscaling of soil prediction models based on weighted generalized additive models in smallholder farm settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P; Nair, Vimala D

    2017-09-11

    Digital soil mapping (DSM) is gaining momentum as a technique to help smallholder farmers secure soil security and food security in developing regions. However, communications of the digital soil mapping information between diverse audiences become problematic due to the inconsistent scale of DSM information. Spatial downscaling can make use of accessible soil information at relatively coarse spatial resolution to provide valuable soil information at relatively fine spatial resolution. The objective of this research was to disaggregate the coarse spatial resolution soil exchangeable potassium (K ex ) and soil total nitrogen (TN) base map into fine spatial resolution soil downscaled map using weighted generalized additive models (GAMs) in two smallholder villages in South India. By incorporating fine spatial resolution spectral indices in the downscaling process, the soil downscaled maps not only conserve the spatial information of coarse spatial resolution soil maps but also depict the spatial details of soil properties at fine spatial resolution. The results of this study demonstrated difference between the fine spatial resolution downscaled maps and fine spatial resolution base maps is smaller than the difference between coarse spatial resolution base maps and fine spatial resolution base maps. The appropriate and economical strategy to promote the DSM technique in smallholder farms is to develop the relatively coarse spatial resolution soil prediction maps or utilize available coarse spatial resolution soil maps at the regional scale and to disaggregate these maps to the fine spatial resolution downscaled soil maps at farm scale.

  11. Adaptive social learning strategies in temporally and spatially varying environments : how temporal vs. spatial variation, number of cultural traits, and costs of learning influence the evolution of conformist-biased transmission, payoff-biased transmission, and individual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakahashi, Wataru; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Henrich, Joseph

    2012-12-01

    Long before the origins of agriculture human ancestors had expanded across the globe into an immense variety of environments, from Australian deserts to Siberian tundra. Survival in these environments did not principally depend on genetic adaptations, but instead on evolved learning strategies that permitted the assembly of locally adaptive behavioral repertoires. To develop hypotheses about these learning strategies, we have modeled the evolution of learning strategies to assess what conditions and constraints favor which kinds of strategies. To build on prior work, we focus on clarifying how spatial variability, temporal variability, and the number of cultural traits influence the evolution of four types of strategies: (1) individual learning, (2) unbiased social learning, (3) payoff-biased social learning, and (4) conformist transmission. Using a combination of analytic and simulation methods, we show that spatial-but not temporal-variation strongly favors the emergence of conformist transmission. This effect intensifies when migration rates are relatively high and individual learning is costly. We also show that increasing the number of cultural traits above two favors the evolution of conformist transmission, which suggests that the assumption of only two traits in many models has been conservative. We close by discussing how (1) spatial variability represents only one way of introducing the low-level, nonadaptive phenotypic trait variation that so favors conformist transmission, the other obvious way being learning errors, and (2) our findings apply to the evolution of conformist transmission in social interactions. Throughout we emphasize how our models generate empirical predictions suitable for laboratory testing.

  12. Modeling the effect of urban infrastructure on hydrologic processes within i-Tree Hydro, a statistically and spatially distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taggart, T. P.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.

    2014-12-01

    Gray and green infrastructure in urban environments alters many natural hydrologic processes, creating an urban water balance unique to the developed environment. A common way to assess the consequences of impervious cover and grey infrastructure is by measuring runoff hydrographs. This focus on the watershed outlet masks the spatial variation of hydrologic process alterations across the urban environment in response to localized landscape characteristics. We attempt to represent this spatial variation in the urban environment using the statistically and spatially distributed i-Tree Hydro model, a scoping level urban forest effects water balance model. i-Tree Hydro has undergone expansion and modification to include the effect of green infrastructure processes, road network attributes, and urban pipe system leakages. These additions to the model are intended to increase the understanding of the altered urban hydrologic cycle by examining the effects of the location of these structures on the water balance. Specifically, the effect of these additional structures and functions on the spatially varying properties of interception, soil moisture and runoff generation. Differences in predicted properties and optimized parameter sets between the two models are examined and related to the recent landscape modifications. Datasets used in this study consist of watersheds and sewersheds within the Syracuse, NY metropolitan area, an urban area that has integrated green and gray infrastructure practices to alleviate stormwater problems.

  13. Spatial variations of the soil of private gardens in the city: a case study of Tybee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah, Pariente; Zhevelev, Helena; Haj yahia, Shatha

    2017-04-01

    Gardens offer ecological, sociological and hydrological benefits. These gardens regulate temperature and energy conservation since the vegetation is an important factor in determining the microclimatic conditions. They function as sinks for runoff developed in paved areas, thus moderate runoff and flooding, and as sanctuaries for increasing species richness. Studies on soil properties of private gardens in cities are rare but no such study was done in an Arab city. The general aim of this study is to investigate the spatial changes in soil, vegetation and architecture characteristics in gardens of the city of Tybee. The city was divided into two regions: old- and new one. An abandoned agricultural field in the city margins was chosen to be as a control area. In each region 15 gardens were randomly chosen. In each, the soil was sampled, in one point, from three depth layers in the end of the dry season; in September 2016. In addition 15 points were sampled in the control. Soil samples were taken from areas with sparse herbaceous vegetation cover. Each of the soil samples was analyzed for color, organic matter, calcium carbonate, and sodium and chlorine contents, pH, electrical conductivity, texture and bulk density. The framework of the study included also observations to characterize the various land uses units of the gardens, and questionnaires to assess the gardening tradition of the owners and to indicate their motivations for maintaining their gardens. Preliminary results show that both the old and new areas in the city have higher number of soil colors (dry and wet) with respect to the control. The distribution of colors in the gardens of the old city area is different from that of the new one. Soils of the old area have a wider spectrum of colors than that of the new one. Penetration depth in the new and old areas is lower than the control (1.5, 2.0 and 2.4 cm, respectively) and the coefficients of variation in the city are higher than the control (77.6, 42

  14. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

    2017-08-01

    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  15. A variational study of superconducting correlations within periodic Anderson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dua, Piyush; Panwar, Sunil; Singh, Ishwar

    2005-01-01

    In this work we present the study of heavy fermion (HF) systems represented by the extended periodic Anderson model (PAM). A term, which contains the superconducting correlations, has been included in the conventional PAM. The study has been carried out at finite U. We have used the variational method. The variational wavefunction contains two variational parameters A kσ and B kσ . We have found that both the variational parameters are mutually dependent. We have studied ground state as well as finite temperature properties. We have found that T c increases, as J increases

  16. Towards more variation in text generation : Developing and evaluating variation models for choice of referential form

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro Ferreira, Thiago; Krahmer, Emiel; Wubben, Sander

    In this study, we introduce a nondeterministic method for referring expression generation. We describe two models that account for individual variation in the choice of referential form in automatically generated text: a Naive Bayes model and a Recurrent Neural Network. Both are evaluated using the

  17. Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Indidura Formation (Cenomanian-Turonian) in Northeastern Mexico, Coahuila State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque-Botero, F.; Maurrasse, F. J.

    2002-12-01

    Rock sequences of Cenomanian-Turonian age commonly assigned to the Indidura Formation in northeastern Mexico, Coahuila State, are shown to include distinct facies indicative of significant spatial variability over the carbonate platform of that region. The type section at Las Delicias is characterized by very-pale orange (10YR8/2) bedded biocalcirudites (10-30 cm thick), without internal structures, and comprises fossil assemblages rich in epifaunal groups, as well as nektonic and planktic taxa. Total inorganic carbon (TIC) varies between 48 % and 94 %, with fluctuation in total organic carbon (TOC) between 0.73 % and 1.58 %. The section at la Casita Canyon, farther southeast, consists of pale yellowish brown (10YR6/2) interbedded biocalcilutites and olive gray (5Y3/2) shales between 3 and 30 cm thick. They also show no apparent original internal structures, and allochems consist essentially of sparse fragments of planktonic foraminifera and radiolarian. TIC content varies between 0.84 % and 59.3 %, whereas TOC changes between 0.17 % and 5.85 %. In contrast, in the Parras Mountains, located south of La Delicias and northwest of la Casita, the succession occurs under a characteristic sequence showing interbeds of light olive gray (5Y6/1) and brownish black to olive black (5YR2/1 - 5Y2/1) shales and marly biocalcilutites 30 to 100 cm thick. They display distinct internal structures arranged in nearly even parallel varve-like dual lamina (TIC content varies from 43 % to 78.3 %, while TOC content remains relatively high with values between 7.35 % and 24.39 %, but more consistently higher than 20 %. Assuming that these facies are coeval, microfacies studies of these rocks as well as acid etched polished rocks, and scanning electron microscope examination (secondary and backscatter imaging) further substantiate these spatial differences. TOC-rich black shales in the Parras region further document unique paleoceanographic conditions, which was also characterized by

  18. Spatial variation in the functional characteristics of herbivorous fish communities and the resilience of coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheal, Alistair J; Emslie, Michael; Aaron, MacNeil M; Miller, Ian; Sweatman, Hugh

    2013-01-01

    Many ecosystems face degradation unless factors that underpin their resilience can be effectively managed. In tropical reef ecosystems, grazing by herbivorous fishes can prevent coral-macroalgal phase shifts that commonly signal loss of resilience. However, knowledge of grazing characteristics that most promote resilience is typically experimental, localized, and sparse, which limits broad management applications. Applying sound ecological theory to broad-scale data may provide an alternative basis for ecosystem management. We explore the idea that resilience is positively related to the diversity within and among functional groups of organisms. Specifically, we infer the relative vulnerability of different subregions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to phase shifts based on functional characteristics of the local herbivorous fish communities. Reef slopes on 92 reefs set in three zones of the continental shelf in eight latitudinal sectors of the GBR were surveyed on multiple occasions between 1995 and 2009. Spatial variation in fish community structure was high and driven primarily by shelf position. Measures of functional diversity, functional redundancy, and abundance were generally higher offshore and lower inshore. Two turbid inshore subregions were considered most vulnerable based on very low measures of herbivore function, and this was supported by the occurrence of phase shifts within one of three subregions. Eleven reefs that resisted phase shifts after major coral mortality included some with very low measures of herbivore function. The fact that phase shifts did not necessarily occur when large herbivores were scarce indicates that other environmental factors compensated to preserve resilience. Estimates of vulnerability based solely on herbivore function may thus prove conservative, but caution is appropriate, since compensatory factors are largely unknown and could be eroded unwittingly by anthropogenic stresses. Our data suggest that managing the threat

  19. A Unified 3D Spatial Data Model for Surface and Subsurface Spatial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A simulation of the above, on and below 3D spatial models for man-made constructions at differ-ent LoDs is presented. A simulation of this with regards to mining and cadastre is also presented. The model presented can be adopted in realising 3D GIS for mining and 3D cadastre can be realised in Ghana. Further work is ...

  20. Stochastic Dynamics on Hypergraphs and the Spatial Majority Rule Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanchier, N.; Neufer, J.

    2013-04-01

    This article starts by introducing a new theoretical framework to model spatial systems which is obtained from the framework of interacting particle systems by replacing the traditional graphical structure that defines the network of interactions with a structure of hypergraph. This new perspective is more appropriate to define stochastic spatial processes in which large blocks of vertices may flip simultaneously, which is then applied to define a spatial version of the Galam's majority rule model. In our spatial model, each vertex of the lattice has one of two possible competing opinions, say opinion 0 and opinion 1, as in the popular voter model. Hyperedges are updated at rate one, which results in all the vertices in the hyperedge changing simultaneously their opinion to the majority opinion of the hyperedge. In the case of a tie in hyperedges with even size, a bias is introduced in favor of type 1, which is motivated by the principle of social inertia. Our analytical results along with simulations and heuristic arguments suggest that, in any spatial dimensions and when the set of hyperedges consists of the collection of all n×⋯× n blocks of the lattice, opinion 1 wins when n is even while the system clusters when n is odd, which contrasts with results about the voter model in high dimensions for which opinions coexist. This is fully proved in one dimension while the rest of our analysis focuses on the cases when n=2 and n=3 in two dimensions.

  1. Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun

    2008-01-01

    Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

  2. Diffusion Filters for Variational Data Assimilation of Sea Surface Temperature in an Intermediate Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    state estimation and forecast in real applica- tions using general circulation models (GCMs). In addition, other spatial multiscale variational analysis...Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans, vol. 102, no. 3, pp. 5655–5667, 1997. [15] P. C. Chu, W. Guihua, and Y. Chen, “Japan Sea thermohaline ...structure and circulation . Part III: autocorrelation functions,” Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol. 32, no. 12, pp. 3596–3615, 2002. [16] K.-A. Park and J

  3. The Spatial Variations and Hotspots of Ecosystem Service Values in India During 1985 - 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannigrahi, S.; Bhatt, S.; Paul, S. K.; Sen, S.; Rahmat, S.; Uniyal, B.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem services can be defined as the processes and functions of the natural ecosystem through which the basic needs and demands of human well-being are sustained and fulfilled. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation and clusters of ESV are analyzed during 1985 - 2005 using benefits transfer approach. The spatial heterogeneity of ESV was assessed through Local Morans I, Getis-Ord-Gi hotspot, and Geary's I statistics, respectively. The temporal uncertainty of ESV was estimated through Ecosystem Service Change Index (ESCI), Ecosystem Service Status Index (ESSI). The sensitivity of ESV to land use/land cover changes were estimated using the Coefficient of Elasticity (CE) approach. The variability of ESV in different land-use categories was examined through Coefficient of Variation (CV), Theil Index (TI), Ginni Coefficient and Entropy method. The contribution of ESV to GDP was quantified using the percent of ESV (%ESV) approach. Total eight ecoregions were considered for estimating the changing dynamics of high and low ESV clusters during 1985 - 2005. Among the eight ecoregions, grassland shows the minimum CV of ESV (1.15) during 1985 - 2005, indicating the most stable and undisturbed eco-regions in India during this study period, followed by cropland (CV= 2.0), forest land (2.32), water bodies (3.27), mangrove (3.5) respectively. While, the urban built-up (CV = 15.89) and wetland (CV = 10.91) exhibits the highest CV during 1985 - 2005. The ESCI was found highly negative (-0.05) over forested region, and negative (-0.02) for water bodies, while a very highly positive (0.38), highly positive (0.24), moderate positive (0.06), weakly positive (0.03) and very weak positive (0.02) values have quantified for urban built-up, wetland, mangrove, cropland and, grassland, respectively. The overall ESSI was very good for urban built-up categories (0.24), followed by wetland (0.15), mangrove (0.04), cropland (0.02) and, grassland (0.01), respectively. During this period

  4. Galapagos hotspot-spreading center system: 1. Spatial petrological and geochemical variations (83/sup 0/W-101/sup 0/W)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schilling, J.; Kingsley, R.H.; Devine, J.D.

    1982-07-10

    We report on the petrology and geochemistry of basalts dredged at 40--50 km intervals along the Galapagos Spreading Center, between 83/sup 0/W and 101/sup 0/W (40 stations). Emphasis is on spatial variations of 'whole rock' major elements, rare earths, trace metals of the first transition series, and the nature of phenocryst assemblages and their abundances. These results provide new constraints on the nature and scale of mantle source heterogeneities, melting conditions, thermal field, and dynamics of crustal formation of the region. We suggest that ridge segments outside the high magnetic amplitude zone are at a steady state as a result of passive seafloor spreading. Basalts from these segments are apparently derived from an asthenosphere relatively uniformally depleted in incompatible elements, which appears of worldwide extent. We reject Vogt and DeBoer's (1976) model invoking damming at fracture zones of subaxial asthenosphere flow of crystal slushes and increasing fractional crystallization down the flow line, because this model would not explain the gradients in REE observed about the Galapagos Platform. Our preferred model combines the mantle-plume binary mixing model of Schilling (1973) with the concept of recurring rift propagation proposed by Hey (1977a). We further propose that pulsating mantle plume flux, perhaps in the form of a chain of blobs, may initiate the development of new rifts and their propagation. The present position of the tips of such new propagating rifts locate the wave fronts of such pulsating mantle plume flow. A two million year period is suggested for the last 4 m.y. from Wilson and Hey's (1979) information Rigorous testing of our preferred model is possible.

  5. Modelling asteroid brightness variations. I - Numerical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karttunen, H.

    1989-01-01

    A method for generating lightcurves of asteroid models is presented. The effects of the shape of the asteroid and the scattering law of a surface element are distinctly separable, being described by chosen functions that can easily be changed. The shape is specified by means of two functions that yield the length of the radius vector and the normal vector of the surface at a given point. The general shape must be convex, but spherical concavities producing macroscopic shadowing can also be modeled.

  6. Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2010-04-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

  7. Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the

  8. Target Selection Models with Preference Variation Between Offenders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Townsley, Michael; Birks, Daniel; Ruiter, Stijn; Bernasco, Wim; White, Gentry

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories,

  9. SIMULATING THE TIMESCALE-DEPENDENT COLOR VARIATION IN QUASARS WITH A REVISED INHOMOGENEOUS DISK MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, Zhen-Yi; Wang, Jun-Xian; Sun, Yu-Han; Wu, Mao-Chun; Huang, Xing-Xing; Chen, Xiao-Yang [CAS Key Laboratory for Researches in Galaxies and Cosmology, University of Science and Technology of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Gu, Wei-Min, E-mail: zcai@ustc.edu.cn, E-mail: jxw@ustc.edu.cn [Department of Astronomy and Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China)

    2016-07-20

    The UV–optical variability of active galactic nuclei and quasars is useful for understanding the physics of the accretion disk and is gradually being attributed to stochastic fluctuations over the accretion disk. Quasars generally appear bluer when they brighten in the UV–optical bands; the nature of this phenomenon remains controversial. Recently, Sun et al. discovered that the color variation of quasars is timescale-dependent, in the way that faster variations are even bluer than longer term ones. While this discovery can directly rule out models that simply attribute the color variation to contamination from the host galaxies, or to changes in the global accretion rates, it favors the stochastic disk fluctuation model as fluctuations in the inner-most hotter disk could dominate the short-term variations. In this work, we show that a revised inhomogeneous disk model, where the characteristic timescales of thermal fluctuations in the disk are radius-dependent (i.e., τ ∼ r ; based on that originally proposed by Dexter and Agol), can reproduce well a timescale-dependent color variation pattern, similar to the observed one and unaffected by the uneven sampling and photometric error. This demonstrates that one may statistically use variation emission at different timescales to spatially resolve the accretion disk in quasars, thus opening a new window with which to probe and test the accretion disk physics in the era of time domain astronomy. Caveats of the current model, which ought to be addressed in future simulations, are discussed.

  10. Variational Ridging in Sea Ice Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, A.; Hunke, E. C.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Maslowski, W.; Kamal, S.

    2017-12-01

    This work presents the results of a new development to make basin-scale sea ice models aware of the shape, porosity and extent of individual ridges within the pack. We have derived an analytic solution for the Euler-Lagrange equation of individual ridges that accounts for non-conservative forces, and therefore the compressive strength of individual ridges. Because a region of the pack is simply a collection of paths of individual ridges, we are able to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for a large-scale sea ice field also, and therefore the compressive strength of a region of the pack that explicitly accounts for the macro-porosity of ridged debris. We make a number of assumptions that have simplified the problem, such as treating sea ice as a granular material in ridges, and assuming that bending moments associated with ridging are perturbations around an isostatic state. Regardless of these simplifications, the ridge model is remarkably predictive of macro-porosity and ridge shape, and, because our equations are analytic, they do not require costly computations to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation of ridges on the large scale. The new ridge model is therefore applicable to large-scale sea ice models. We present results from this theoretical development, as well as plans to apply it to the Regional Arctic System Model and a community sea ice code. Most importantly, the new ridging model is particularly useful for pinpointing gaps in our observational record of sea ice ridges, and points to the need for improved measurements of the evolution of porosity of deformed ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Such knowledge is not only useful for improving models, but also for improving estimates of sea ice volume derived from altimetric measurements of sea ice freeboard.

  11. Spatial variations of earthquake occurrence and coseismic deformation in the Upper Rhine Graben, Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, A.; Ritter, J. R. R.; Wenzel, F.

    2015-05-01

    Seismic activity in the densely populated Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is an aspect in the public, political, and industrial decision making process. The spatial analysis of magnitude-frequency distributions provides valuable information about local seismicity patterns and regional seismic hazard assessment and can be used also as a proxy for coseismic deformation to explore the seismo-tectonic setting of the URG. We combine five instrumental and one historic earthquake bulletins to obtain for the first time a consistent database for events with local magnitudes ML ≥ 2.0 in the whole URG and use it for the determination of magnitude frequencies. The data processing results in a dataset with 274 Poisson distributed instrumentally recorded earthquakes within the URG between 01/1971 and 02/2012 and 34 historic events since the year 1250. Our analysis reveals significant b-value variations along the URG that allow us to differentiate four distinct sections (I-IV) with significant differences in earthquake magnitude distributions: I: Basel region in the Swiss-France-German border region (b = 0.83), II: region between Mulhouse and Freiburg in the southern URG (b = 1.42), III: central URG (b = 0.93), and IV: northern URG (b = 1.06). High b-values and thus a relatively low amount of high magnitude events in the Freiburg section are possibly a consequence of strongly segmented, small-scale structures that are not able to accumulate high stresses. We use the obtained magnitude-frequency distributions and representative source mechanisms for each section to determine coseismic displacement rates. A maximum horizontal displacement rate of 41 μm/a around Basel is found whereas only 8 μm/a are derived for the central and northern URG. A comparison with geodetic and geological constraints implies that the coseismic displacement rates cover less than 10% of the overall displacement rates, suggesting a high amount of aseismic deformation in the URG.

  12. Spatial and temporal variation in fungal endophyte communities isolated from cultivated cotton (Gossypium hirsutum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María J Ek-Ramos

    Full Text Available Studies of fungi in upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum cultivated in the United States have largely focused on monitoring and controlling plant pathogens. Given increasing interest in asymptomatic fungal endophytes as potential biological control agents, surveys are needed to better characterize their diversity, distribution patterns and possible applications in integrated pest management. We sampled multiple varieties of cotton in Texas, USA and tested for temporal and spatial variation in fungal endophyte diversity and community composition, as well as for differences associated with organic and conventional farming practices. Fungal isolates were identified by morphological and DNA identification methods. We found members of the genera Alternaria, Colletotrichum and Phomopsis, previously isolated as endophytes from other plant species. Other recovered species such as Drechslerella dactyloides (formerly Arthrobotrys dactyloides and Exserohilum rostratum have not, to our knowledge, been previously reported as endophytes in cotton. We also isolated many latent pathogens, but some species such as Alternaria tennuissima, Epicoccum nigrum, Acremonium alternatum, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Chaetomium globosum and Paecilomyces sp., are known to be antagonists against plant pathogens, insects and nematode pests. We found no differences in endophyte species richness or diversity among different cotton varieties, but did detect differences over time and in different plant tissues. No consistent patterns of community similarity associated with variety, region, farming practice, time of the season or tissue type were observed regardless of the ecological community similarity measurements used. Results indicated that local fungal endophyte communities may be affected by both time of the year and plant tissue, but the specific community composition varies across sites. In addition to providing insights into fungal endophyte community structure, our survey

  13. Temporal and spatial variations of greenhouse gas fluxes from a tidal mangrove wetland in Southeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Liao, Guanshun; D'Souza, Melissa; Yu, Xiaoqing; Yang, Jun; Yang, Xiaoru; Zheng, Tianling

    2016-01-01

    Tidal mangrove wetlands are a source of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O); but considering the high productivity of mangroves, they represent a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO2). An exotic plant Spartina alterniflora has invaded east China over the last few decades, threatening these coastal mangrove ecosystems. However, the atmospheric gas fluxes in mangroves are poorly characterized and the impact of biological invasion on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the wetland remains unclear. In this study, the temporal and spatial dynamics of key GHG fluxes (CO2, CH4, and N2O) at an unvegetated mudflat, cordgrass (S. alterniflora), and mangrove (Kandelia obovata) sites along an estuary of the Jiulong River in Southeast China were investigated over a 2-year period. The CO2 and CH4 fluxes demonstrated a seasonal and vegetation-dependent variation while N2O fluxes showed no such dependent pattern. Air temperature was the main factor influencing CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Cumulative global warming potential (GWP) ranked in the order of mangrove > cordgrass > mudflat and summer > spring > autumn > winter. Moreover, CH4 accounted for the largest proportion (68%) of GWP, indicating its dominant contribution to the warming potential in mangroves. Notwithstanding the lack of information on plant coverage, cordgrass invasion exhibited a minor influence on GHG emissions. These findings support the notion that mangrove forests are net accumulation sites for GHGs. As vegetation showed considerable effects on fluxes, more information about the significance of vegetation type with a special emphasis on the effects of invasive plants is crucial.

  14. Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Demirel

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based earth observations offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatial-pattern-oriented model evaluations. In this study, observed spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET are utilised for spatial model calibration tailored to target the pattern performance of the model. The proposed calibration framework combines temporally aggregated observed spatial patterns with a new spatial performance metric and a flexible spatial parameterisation scheme. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM is used to simulate streamflow and AET and has been selected due to its soil parameter distribution approach based on pedo-transfer functions and the build in multi-scale parameter regionalisation. In addition two new spatial parameter distribution options have been incorporated in the model in order to increase the flexibility of root fraction coefficient and potential evapotranspiration correction parameterisations, based on soil type and vegetation density. These parameterisations are utilised as they are most relevant for simulated AET patterns from the hydrologic model. Due to the fundamental challenges encountered when evaluating spatial pattern performance using standard metrics, we developed a simple but highly discriminative spatial metric, i.e. one comprised of three easily interpretable components measuring co-location, variation and distribution of the spatial data. The study shows that with flexible spatial model parameterisation used in combination with the appropriate objective functions, the simulated spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration become substantially more similar to the satellite-based estimates. Overall 26 parameters are identified for calibration through a sequential screening approach based on a combination of streamflow and spatial pattern metrics. The robustness of the calibrations is tested using an ensemble of nine calibrations based on different seed numbers using the

  15. Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Mehmet C.; Mai, Juliane; Mendiguren, Gorka; Koch, Julian; Samaniego, Luis; Stisen, Simon

    2018-02-01

    Satellite-based earth observations offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatial-pattern-oriented model evaluations. In this study, observed spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET) are utilised for spatial model calibration tailored to target the pattern performance of the model. The proposed calibration framework combines temporally aggregated observed spatial patterns with a new spatial performance metric and a flexible spatial parameterisation scheme. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) is used to simulate streamflow and AET and has been selected due to its soil parameter distribution approach based on pedo-transfer functions and the build in multi-scale parameter regionalisation. In addition two new spatial parameter distribution options have been incorporated in the model in order to increase the flexibility of root fraction coefficient and potential evapotranspiration correction parameterisations, based on soil type and vegetation density. These parameterisations are utilised as they are most relevant for simulated AET patterns from the hydrologic model. Due to the fundamental challenges encountered when evaluating spatial pattern performance using standard metrics, we developed a simple but highly discriminative spatial metric, i.e. one comprised of three easily interpretable components measuring co-location, variation and distribution of the spatial data. The study shows that with flexible spatial model parameterisation used in combination with the appropriate objective functions, the simulated spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration become substantially more similar to the satellite-based estimates. Overall 26 parameters are identified for calibration through a sequential screening approach based on a combination of streamflow and spatial pattern metrics. The robustness of the calibrations is tested using an ensemble of nine calibrations based on different seed numbers using the shuffled complex

  16. A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Aubigny Gérard

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP, valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis.

  17. A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bree Cummins

    Full Text Available Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

  18. Toward micro-scale spatial modeling of gentrification

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, David

    A simple preliminary model of gentrification is presented. The model is based on an irregular cellular automaton architecture drawing on the concept of proximal space, which is well suited to the spatial externalities present in housing markets at the local scale. The rent gap hypothesis on which the model's cell transition rules are based is discussed. The model's transition rules are described in detail. Practical difficulties in configuring and initializing the model are described and its typical behavior reported. Prospects for further development of the model are discussed. The current model structure, while inadequate, is well suited to further elaboration and the incorporation of other interesting and relevant effects.

  19. Spherical Cap Harmonic Modelling of 400 Years of Secular Variation in the South-west Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, M.; Alfheid, M.; Ingham, E. M.; Turner, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    Historical magnetic data recorded in ship's logs on voyages of exploration and trade in the south-west Pacific have been used as a basis for constructing a model of secular variation in the region using spherical cap harmonic (SCH) analysis. The spherical cap used is centred on colatitude 115° and longitude 160° and has a radius of 50°, thus covering New Zealand, Australia and parts of Antarctica. Gaps in the observational data have been filled by an iterative procedure started by using IGRF field values to obtain SCH models for 2000, 1950 and 1900 and assuming that the spherical cap coefficients have a linear variation in time over the 400 year time period of the model, as is observed to a first approximation for Gauss coefficients calculated from a global spherical harmonic analysis. The resulting field models have generally smooth spatial and temporal variations in declination, inclination and intensity which show some differences from the variations calculated using the global spherical harmonic model gufm1. The technique clearly shows promise for producing more refined models of secular variation in the south-west Pacific when the historical data are supplemented by archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data.

  20. Spatial and temporal variation in radiation exposure of amphibians - Implications for environmental risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stark, K. [Stockholm University (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Although amphibians are threatened world-wide, many amphibian species are protected in national legislation. Thus, amphibians need special attention in many environmental risk assessments for releases of contaminants such as radionuclides. In fact, amphibians' ecology and physiology (including, for example, a complex life-cycle with both aquatic and terrestrial life stages, and a thin skin) makes them sensitive to radiation exposure. In current dose models for wildlife, homogenous distribution of radionuclides in soil is assumed. However, soils are heterogeneous environments and radionuclide contamination can be very unevenly distributed. As a consequence, bioaccumulation of radionuclides in biota may vary on a local scale. Specifically, organisms' spatial location and movement within habitats may affect both their external and internal exposure pattern to radionuclides. Therefore, measuring the spatial location of individual amphibians within ecosystems and understanding why they use these different locations is essential for predicting potential effects of released radionuclides on these populations. The aim of this study was to investigate amphibians' spatial distribution in a {sup 137}Cs contaminated wetland area and their body content of {sup 137}Cs at the beginning and end of the summer period. The study site was a wetland nature reserve called Bladmyra near Gaevle in the central-eastern part of Sweden. This area received fallout of {sup 137}Cs after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study measured the spatial distributions of two amphibian species (Rana arvalis and Bufo bufo) with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags in a mark-and-recapture study during 2012-2014. In addition, {sup 137}Cs body content in the two species was measured by whole body counting in spring and autumn of 2013. The results showed differences between years in how marked animals used the study area: More individuals stayed in a small area during 2012 than in 2013

  1. Spatial variation in microbial processes controlling carbon mineralization within soils and sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fendorf, Scott [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Kleber, Markus [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Nico, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-10-19

    Soils have a defining role in global carbon cycling, having one of the largest dynamic stocks of C on earth—3300 Pg of C are stored in soils, which is three-times the amount stored in the atmosphere and more than the terrestrial land plants. An important control on soil organic matter (SOM) quantities is the mineralization rate. It is well recognized that the rate and extent of SOM mineralization is affected by climatic factors and mineral-organic matter associations. What remained elusive is to what extent constraints on microbial metabolism induced by the respiratory pathway, and specifically the electron acceptor in respiration, control overall rates of carbon mineralization in soils. Therefore, physical factors limiting oxygen diffusion such as soil texture and aggregate size (soil structure) may therefore be central controls on C mineralization rates. The goal of our research was therefore to determine if variations in microbial metabolic rates induced by anaerobic microsites in soils are a major control on SOM mineralization rates and thus storage. We performed a combination of laboratory experiments and field investigations will be performed to fulfill our research objectives. We used laboratory studies to examine fundamental factors of respiratory constraints (i.e., electron acceptor) on organic matter mineralization rates. We ground our laboratory studies with both manipulation of field samples and in-field measurements. Selection of the field sites is guided by variation in soil texture and structure while having (other environmental/soil factors constant. Our laboratory studies defined redox gradients and variations in microbial metabolism operating at the aggregate-scale (cm-scale) within soils using a novel constructed diffusion reactor. We further examined micro-scale variation in terminal electron accepting processes and resulting C mineralization rates within re-packed soils. A major outcome of our research is the ability to quantitatively place