Spatial Data Web Services Pricing Model Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Ozmus, L.; Erkek, B.; Colak, S.; Cankurt, I.; Bakıcı, S.

2013-08-01

most important law with related NSDI is the establishment of General Directorate of Geographic Information System under the Ministry of Environment and Urbanism. due to; to do or to have do works and activities with related to the establishment of National Geographic Information Systems (NGIS), usage of NGIS and improvements of NGIS. Outputs of these projects are served to not only public administration but also to Turkish society. Today for example, TAKBIS data (cadastre services) are shared more than 50 institutions by Web services, Tusaga-Aktif system has more than 3800 users who are having real-time GPS data correction, Orthophoto WMS services has been started for two years as a charge of free. Today there is great discussion about data pricing among the institutions. Some of them think that the pricing is storage of the data. Some of them think that the pricing is value of data itself. There is no certain rule about pricing. On this paper firstly, pricing of data storage and later on spatial data pricing models in different countries are investigated to improve institutional understanding in Turkey.

Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Finn Lindgren

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009 is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE, Lindgren, Rue, and Lindstrm 2011, one can accommodate all kinds of geographically referenced data, including areal and geostatistical ones, as well as spatial point process data. The implementation interface covers stationary spatial mod- els, non-stationary spatial models, and also spatio-temporal models, and is applicable in epidemiology, ecology, environmental risk assessment, as well as general geostatistics.

Modelling the potential spatial distribution of mosquito species using three different techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cianci, D.; Hartemink, N.; Ibáñez-Justicia, A.

2015-01-01

Background: Models for the spatial distribution of vector species are important tools in the assessment of the risk of establishment and subsequent spread of vector-borne diseases. The aims of this study are to define the environmental conditions suitable for several mosquito species through species

Spatial risk modelling for water shortage and nitrate pollution in the lower Jordan valley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loibl, W.; Orthofer, R.

2002-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the spatial risk modeling activities (work package WP-4.4, 'GIS Risk Modeling') of the INCO-DC project 'Developing Sustainable Water Management in the Jordan Valley'. The project was funded by European Commission's INCO-DC research program. The main objective of the project was to develop the scientific basis for an integral management plan of water resources and their use in the Lower Jordan Valley. The outputs of the project were expected to allow a better understanding of the water management situation, and to provide a sound basis for a better future water management - not only separately in the three countries, but in the overall valley region. The risk modeling was done by the ARCS Seibersdorf research (ARCS), based on information and data provided by the regional partners from Israel (Hebrew University, Jerusalem, HUJ), Palestine (Applied Research Institute, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, ARIJ) and Jordan (EnviroConsult Office, Amman, ECO). The land use classification has been established through a cooperation between ARCS and the Yale University Center for Earth Observation (YUCEO). As a result of the work, the spatial patterns of agricultural and domestic water demand in the Lower Jordan Valley were established, and the spatial dimension of driving forces for water usage and water supply was analyzed. Furthermore, a conceptual model for nitrate leakage (established by HUJ) was translated into a GIS system, and the risks for nitrate pollution of groundwater were quantified. (author)

Implementation of marine spatial planning in shellfish aquaculture management: modeling studies in a Norwegian fjord.

Science.gov (United States)

Filgueira, Ramon; Grant, Jon; Strand, Øivind

2014-06-01

Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.

Genome-scale modelling of microbial metabolism with temporal and spatial resolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Henson, Michael A

2015-12-01

Most natural microbial systems have evolved to function in environments with temporal and spatial variations. A major limitation to understanding such complex systems is the lack of mathematical modelling frameworks that connect the genomes of individual species and temporal and spatial variations in the environment to system behaviour. The goal of this review is to introduce the emerging field of spatiotemporal metabolic modelling based on genome-scale reconstructions of microbial metabolism. The extension of flux balance analysis (FBA) to account for both temporal and spatial variations in the environment is termed spatiotemporal FBA (SFBA). Following a brief overview of FBA and its established dynamic extension, the SFBA problem is introduced and recent progress is described. Three case studies are reviewed to illustrate the current state-of-the-art and possible future research directions are outlined. The author posits that SFBA is the next frontier for microbial metabolic modelling and a rapid increase in methods development and system applications is anticipated. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Indoor 3D Route Modeling Based On Estate Spatial Data

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Wen, Y.; Jiang, J.; Huang, W.

2014-04-01

Indoor three-dimensional route model is essential for space intelligence navigation and emergency evacuation. This paper is motivated by the need of constructing indoor route model automatically and as far as possible. By comparing existing building data sources, this paper firstly explained the reason why the estate spatial management data is chosen as the data source. Then, an applicable method of construction three-dimensional route model in a building is introduced by establishing the mapping relationship between geographic entities and their topological expression. This data model is a weighted graph consist of "node" and "path" to express the spatial relationship and topological structure of a building components. The whole process of modelling internal space of a building is addressed by two key steps: (1) each single floor route model is constructed, including path extraction of corridor using Delaunay triangulation algorithm with constrained edge, fusion of room nodes into the path; (2) the single floor route model is connected with stairs and elevators and the multi-floor route model is eventually generated. In order to validate the method in this paper, a shopping mall called "Longjiang New City Plaza" in Nanjing is chosen as a case of study. And the whole building space is constructed according to the modelling method above. By integrating of existing path finding algorithm, the usability of this modelling method is verified, which shows the indoor three-dimensional route modelling method based on estate spatial data in this paper can support indoor route planning and evacuation route design very well.

How informative are spatial CA3 representations established by the dentate gyrus?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Cerasti

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In the mammalian hippocampus, the dentate gyrus (DG is characterized by sparse and powerful unidirectional projections to CA3 pyramidal cells, the so-called mossy fibers. Mossy fiber synapses appear to duplicate, in terms of the information they convey, what CA3 cells already receive from entorhinal cortex layer II cells, which project both to the dentate gyrus and to CA3. Computational models of episodic memory have hypothesized that the function of the mossy fibers is to enforce a new, well-separated pattern of activity onto CA3 cells, to represent a new memory, prevailing over the interference produced by the traces of older memories already stored on CA3 recurrent collateral connections. Can this hypothesis apply also to spatial representations, as described by recent neurophysiological recordings in rats? To address this issue quantitatively, we estimate the amount of information DG can impart on a new CA3 pattern of spatial activity, using both mathematical analysis and computer simulations of a simplified model. We confirm that, also in the spatial case, the observed sparse connectivity and level of activity are most appropriate for driving memory storage-and not to initiate retrieval. Surprisingly, the model also indicates that even when DG codes just for space, much of the information it passes on to CA3 acquires a non-spatial and episodic character, akin to that of a random number generator. It is suggested that further hippocampal processing is required to make full spatial use of DG inputs.

Differences in spatial understanding between physical and virtual models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Sun

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In the digital age, physical models are still used as major tools in architectural and urban design processes. The reason why designers still use physical models remains unclear. In addition, physical and 3D virtual models have yet to be differentiated. The answers to these questions are too complex to account for in all aspects. Thus, this study only focuses on the differences in spatial understanding between physical and virtual models. In particular, it emphasizes on the perception of scale. For our experiment, respondents were shown a physical model and a virtual model consecutively. A questionnaire was then used to ask the respondents to evaluate these models objectively and to establish which model was more accurate in conveying object size. Compared with the virtual model, the physical model tended to enable quicker and more accurate comparisons of building heights.

Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

1993-01-01

Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

Spatial-Temporal Correlation Properties of the 3GPP Spatial Channel Model and the Kronecker MIMO Channel Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Xiang Wang

2007-02-01

Full Text Available The performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO systems is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal correlation properties of the underlying MIMO channels. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal correlation characteristics of the spatial channel model (SCM in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP and the Kronecker-based stochastic model (KBSM at three levels, namely, the cluster level, link level, and system level. The KBSM has both the spatial separability and spatial-temporal separability at all the three levels. The spatial-temporal separability is observed for the SCM only at the system level, but not at the cluster and link levels. The SCM shows the spatial separability at the link and system levels, but not at the cluster level since its spatial correlation is related to the joint distribution of the angle of arrival (AoA and angle of departure (AoD. The KBSM with the Gaussian-shaped power azimuth spectrum (PAS is found to fit best the 3GPP SCM in terms of the spatial correlations. Despite its simplicity and analytical tractability, the KBSM is restricted to model only the average spatial-temporal behavior of MIMO channels. The SCM provides more insights of the variations of different MIMO channel realizations, but the implementation complexity is relatively high.

Using animal models to overcome temporal, spatial and combinatorial challenges in HIV persistence research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Denton, Paul W.; Søgaard, Ole Schmeltz; Tolstrup, Martin

2016-01-01

Research challenges associated with understanding HIV persistence during antiretroviral therapy can be categorized as temporal, spatial and combinatorial. Temporal research challenges relate to the timing of events during establishment and maintenance of HIV persistence. Spatial research challeng...... for directly addressing these research challenges. The aim of this manuscript is to provide a comprehensive review of these recent translational advances made in animal models of HIV persistence....... will improve our understanding of HIV persistence and move the field closer to achieving eradication of persistent HIV. Given that humanized mice and non-human primate HIV models permit rigorous control of experimental conditions, these models have been used extensively as in vivo research platforms...

An API for Integrating Spatial Context Models with Spatial Reasoning Algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun

2006-01-01

The integration of context-aware applications with spatial context models is often done using a common query language. However, algorithms that estimate and reason about spatial context information can benefit from a tighter integration. An object-oriented API makes such integration possible...... and can help reduce the complexity of algorithms making them easier to maintain and develop. This paper propose an object-oriented API for context models of the physical environment and extensions to a location modeling approach called geometric space trees for it to provide adequate support for location...... modeling. The utility of the API is evaluated in several real-world cases from an indoor location system, and spans several types of spatial reasoning algorithms....

Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Helbich, M; Griffith, D

2016-01-01

Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal

2015-01-01

For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

Digital Hydrologic Networks Supporting Applications Related to Spatially Referenced Regression Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Brakebill, J.W.; Wolock, D.M.; Terziotti, S.E.

2011-01-01

Digital hydrologic networks depicting surface-water pathways and their associated drainage catchments provide a key component to hydrologic analysis and modeling. Collectively, they form common spatial units that can be used to frame the descriptions of aquatic and watershed processes. In addition, they provide the ability to simulate and route the movement of water and associated constituents throughout the landscape. Digital hydrologic networks have evolved from derivatives of mapping products to detailed, interconnected, spatially referenced networks of water pathways, drainage areas, and stream and watershed characteristics. These properties are important because they enhance the ability to spatially evaluate factors that affect the sources and transport of water-quality constituents at various scales. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), a process-based/statistical model, relies on a digital hydrologic network in order to establish relations between quantities of monitored contaminant flux, contaminant sources, and the associated physical characteristics affecting contaminant transport. Digital hydrologic networks modified from the River Reach File (RF1) and National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) geospatial datasets provided frameworks for SPARROW in six regions of the conterminous United States. In addition, characteristics of the modified RF1 were used to update estimates of mean-annual streamflow. This produced more current flow estimates for use in SPARROW modeling. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Establishing model credibility involves more than validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, T.

1991-01-01

One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)

Spatial occupancy models for large data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.

2013-01-01

Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.

Spatial modelling with R-INLA: A review

KAUST Repository

Bakka, Haakon; Rue, Haavard; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Bolin, David; Krainski, Elias; Simpson, Daniel; Lindgren, Finn

2018-01-01

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R-INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R-INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Mat\\'ern Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modelling with R-INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight-forward approaches for non-stationary spatial models and non-separable space-time models.

Spatial modelling with R-INLA: A review

KAUST Repository

Bakka, Haakon

2018-02-18

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R-INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R-INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Mat\\\\\\'ern Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modelling with R-INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight-forward approaches for non-stationary spatial models and non-separable space-time models.

Spatial data quality and coastal spill modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Y.; Brimicombe, A.J.; Ralphs, M.P.

1998-01-01

Issues of spatial data quality are central to the whole oil spill modelling process. Both model and data quality performance issues should be considered as indispensable parts of a complete oil spill model specification and testing procedure. This paper presents initial results of research that will emphasise to modeler and manager alike the practical issues of spatial data quality for coastal oil spill modelling. It is centred around a case study of Jiao Zhou Bay in the People's Republic of China. The implications for coastal oil spill modelling are discussed and some strategies for managing the effects of spatial data quality in the outputs of oil spill modelling are explored. (author)

Control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling

OpenAIRE

Li, Yang

2007-01-01

Spatial discretisation plays an important role in many numerical environmental models. This paper studies the control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling with a view to assure the quality of modelling outputs for given spatial data inputs. Spatial data analysis techniques are effective for investigating and improving the spatial discretisation in different phases of the modelling. Proposed methods are implemented and tested with experimental models. A new “Automatic Searc...

Landform classification using a sub-pixel spatial attraction model to increase spatial resolution of digital elevation model (DEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marzieh Mokarrama

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the present study is preparing a landform classification by using digital elevation model (DEM which has a high spatial resolution. To reach the mentioned aim, a sub-pixel spatial attraction model was used as a novel method for preparing DEM with a high spatial resolution in the north of Darab, Fars province, Iran. The sub-pixel attraction models convert the pixel into sub-pixels based on the neighboring pixels fraction values, which can only be attracted by a central pixel. Based on this approach, a mere maximum of eight neighboring pixels can be selected for calculating of the attraction value. In the mentioned model, other pixels are supposed to be far from the central pixel to receive any attraction. In the present study by using a sub-pixel attraction model, the spatial resolution of a DEM was increased. The design of the algorithm is accomplished by using a DEM with a spatial resolution of 30 m (the Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer; (ASTER and a 90 m (the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; (SRTM. In the attraction model, scale factors of (S = 2, S = 3, and S = 4 with two neighboring methods of touching (T = 1 and quadrant (T = 2 are applied to the DEMs by using MATLAB software. The algorithm is evaluated by taking the best advantages of 487 sample points, which are measured by surveyors. The spatial attraction model with scale factor of (S = 2 gives better results compared to those scale factors which are greater than 2. Besides, the touching neighborhood method is turned to be more accurate than the quadrant method. In fact, dividing each pixel into more than two sub-pixels decreases the accuracy of the resulted DEM. On the other hand, in these cases DEM, is itself in charge of increasing the value of root-mean-square error (RMSE and shows that attraction models could not be used for S which is greater than 2. Thus considering results, the proposed model is highly capable of

Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

2018-01-01

Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

The spatial limitations of current neutral models of biodiversity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rampal S Etienne

Full Text Available The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a 'fat-tailed' distribution. Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed.

Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Julian

the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

The SPAtial EFficiency metric (SPAEF): multiple-component evaluation of spatial patterns for optimization of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Julian; Cüneyd Demirel, Mehmet; Stisen, Simon

2018-05-01

The process of model evaluation is not only an integral part of model development and calibration but also of paramount importance when communicating modelling results to the scientific community and stakeholders. The modelling community has a large and well-tested toolbox of metrics to evaluate temporal model performance. In contrast, spatial performance evaluation does not correspond to the grand availability of spatial observations readily available and to the sophisticate model codes simulating the spatial variability of complex hydrological processes. This study makes a contribution towards advancing spatial-pattern-oriented model calibration by rigorously testing a multiple-component performance metric. The promoted SPAtial EFficiency (SPAEF) metric reflects three equally weighted components: correlation, coefficient of variation and histogram overlap. This multiple-component approach is found to be advantageous in order to achieve the complex task of comparing spatial patterns. SPAEF, its three components individually and two alternative spatial performance metrics, i.e. connectivity analysis and fractions skill score, are applied in a spatial-pattern-oriented model calibration of a catchment model in Denmark. Results suggest the importance of multiple-component metrics because stand-alone metrics tend to fail to provide holistic pattern information. The three SPAEF components are found to be independent, which allows them to complement each other in a meaningful way. In order to optimally exploit spatial observations made available by remote sensing platforms, this study suggests applying bias insensitive metrics which further allow for a comparison of variables which are related but may differ in unit. This study applies SPAEF in the hydrological context using the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; version 5.8), but we see great potential across disciplines related to spatially distributed earth system modelling.

Panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elhorst, J. Paul

2001-01-01

This paper surveys panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable. In particular, it focuses on the specification and estimation of four panel data models commonly used in applied research: the fixed effects model, the random effects model, the

Latin hypercube sampling and geostatistical modeling of spatial uncertainty in a spatially explicit forest landscape model simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Chonggang Xu; Hong S. He; Yuanman Hu; Yu Chang; Xiuzhen Li; Rencang Bu

2005-01-01

Geostatistical stochastic simulation is always combined with Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in spatial model simulations. However, due to the relatively long running time of spatially explicit forest models as a result of their complexity, it is always infeasible to generate hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Thus, it is of great...

Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

KAUST Repository

Sang, Huiyan; Gelfand, Alan E.

2010-01-01

process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters

Multivariate Non-Symmetric Stochastic Models for Spatial Dependence Models

Science.gov (United States)

Haslauer, C. P.; Bárdossy, A.

2017-12-01

A copula based multivariate framework allows more flexibility to describe different kind of dependences than what is possible using models relying on the confining assumption of symmetric Gaussian models: different quantiles can be modelled with a different degree of dependence; it will be demonstrated how this can be expected given process understanding. maximum likelihood based multivariate quantitative parameter estimation yields stable and reliable results; not only improved results in cross-validation based measures of uncertainty are obtained but also a more realistic spatial structure of uncertainty compared to second order models of dependence; as much information as is available is included in the parameter estimation: incorporation of censored measurements (e.g., below detection limit, or ones that are above the sensitive range of the measurement device) yield to more realistic spatial models; the proportion of true zeros can be jointly estimated with and distinguished from censored measurements which allow estimates about the age of a contaminant in the system; secondary information (categorical and on the rational scale) has been used to improve the estimation of the primary variable; These copula based multivariate statistical techniques are demonstrated based on hydraulic conductivity observations at the Borden (Canada) site, the MADE site (USA), and a large regional groundwater quality data-set in south-west Germany. Fields of spatially distributed K were simulated with identical marginal simulation, identical second order spatial moments, yet substantially differing solute transport characteristics when numerical tracer tests were performed. A statistical methodology is shown that allows the delineation of a boundary layer separating homogenous parts of a spatial data-set. The effects of this boundary layer (macro structure) and the spatial dependence of K (micro structure) on solute transport behaviour is shown.

Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

CERN Document Server

Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

2003-01-01

Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

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Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

Spatial variability of biotic and abiotic tree establishment constraints across a treeline ecotone in the Alaska range.

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Stueve, Kirk M; Isaacs, Rachel E; Tyrrell, Lucy E; Densmore, Roseann V

2011-02-01

Throughout interior Alaska (U.S.A.), a gradual warming trend in mean monthly temperatures occurred over the last few decades (approximatlely 2-4 degrees C). The accompanying increases in woody vegetation at many alpine treeline (hereafter treeline) locations provided an opportunity to examine how biotic and abiotic local site conditions interact to control tree establishment patterns during warming. We devised a landscape ecological approach to investigate these relationships at an undisturbed treeline in the Alaska Range. We identified treeline changes between 1953 (aerial photography) and 2005 (satellite imagery) in a geographic information system (GIS) and linked them with corresponding local site conditions derived from digital terrain data, ancillary climate data, and distance to 1953 trees. Logistic regressions enabled us to rank the importance of local site conditions in controlling tree establishment. We discovered a spatial transition in the importance of tree establishment controls. The biotic variable (proximity to 1953 trees) was the most important tree establishment predictor below the upper tree limit, providing evidence of response lags with the abiotic setting and suggesting that tree establishment is rarely in equilibrium with the physical environment or responding directly to warming. Elevation and winter sun exposure were important predictors of tree establishment at the upper tree limit, but proximity to trees persisted as an important tertiary predictor, indicating that tree establishment may achieve equilibrium with the physical environment. However, even here, influences from the biotic variable may obscure unequivocal correlations with the abiotic setting (including temperature). Future treeline expansion will likely be patchy and challenging to predict without considering the spatial variability of influences from biotic and abiotic local site conditions.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

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Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

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Gerkman, Linda

2012-07-01

The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

The spatial impact of neighbouring on the exports activities of COMESA countries by using spatial panel models

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Hamzalouh, L.; Ismail, M. T.; Rahman, R. A.

2017-09-01

In this paper, spatial panel models were used and the method for selecting the best model amongst the spatial fixed effects model and the spatial random effects model to estimate the fitting model by using the robust Hausman test for analysis of the exports pattern of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African (COMESA) countries. And examine the effects of the interactions of the economic statistic of explanatory variables on the exports of the COMESA. Results indicated that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects specification should be tested and considered in most cases of this study. After that, the direct and indirect effects among COMESA regions were assessed, and the role of indirect spatial effects in estimating exports was empirically demonstrated. Regarding originality and research value, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine exports between COMESA and its member countries through spatial panel models using XSMLE, which is a new command for spatial analysis using STATA.

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deutsch, Jared L., E-mail: jdeutsch@ualberta.ca [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Palmer, Kevin [Teck Resources Limited (Canada); Deutsch, Clayton V.; Szymanski, Jozef [University of Alberta, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada); Etsell, Thomas H. [University of Alberta, Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering (Canada)

2016-06-15

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

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Wiens, J. David; Schumaker, Nathan H.; Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Nussear, Kenneth E

2017-01-01

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elhorst, J. Paul

This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

Economic and Environmental Effects of Public Transport Subsidy Policies: a Spatial CGE Model of Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Xu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Public transport plays an important role in the environment. This study established a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE model to examine the economic and environmental effects of public transport subsidy policies. The model includes firms, consumers, and traffic modules in one framework. Statistical data from Beijing were used in calibration to obtain benchmark equilibrium. Based on the equilibrium, simulations compared citywide social welfare, jobs-housing spatial population distribution, and environmental outputs under four subsidy policies: fare subsidy, cash grants, road expansion, and public transport speedup. Based on the results regarding the effects of public transport policies, conclusions can be drawn about which policies will have greater overall social influence and should therefore be used.

Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

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Luca Bortolussi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

How does spatial study design influence density estimates from spatial capture-recapture models?

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Rahel Sollmann

Full Text Available When estimating population density from data collected on non-invasive detector arrays, recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR models present an advance over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement. While these models should be more robust to changes in trapping designs, they have not been well tested. Here we investigate how the spatial arrangement and size of the trapping array influence parameter estimates for SCR models. We analysed black bear data collected with 123 hair snares with an SCR model accounting for differences in detection and movement between sexes and across the trapping occasions. To see how the size of the trap array and trap dispersion influence parameter estimates, we repeated analysis for data from subsets of traps: 50% chosen at random, 50% in the centre of the array and 20% in the South of the array. Additionally, we simulated and analysed data under a suite of trap designs and home range sizes. In the black bear study, we found that results were similar across trap arrays, except when only 20% of the array was used. Black bear density was approximately 10 individuals per 100 km(2. Our simulation study showed that SCR models performed well as long as the extent of the trap array was similar to or larger than the extent of individual movement during the study period, and movement was at least half the distance between traps. SCR models performed well across a range of spatial trap setups and animal movements. Contrary to non-spatial capture-recapture models, they do not require the trapping grid to cover an area several times the average home range of the studied species. This renders SCR models more appropriate for the study of wide-ranging mammals and more flexible to design studies targeting multiple species.

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

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Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-11-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

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Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

2006-11-01

A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

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Chengcheng Xu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

Image-based quantification and mathematical modeling of spatial heterogeneity in ESC colonies.

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Herberg, Maria; Zerjatke, Thomas; de Back, Walter; Glauche, Ingmar; Roeder, Ingo

2015-06-01

Pluripotent embryonic stem cells (ESCs) have the potential to differentiate into cells of all three germ layers. This unique property has been extensively studied on the intracellular, transcriptional level. However, ESCs typically form clusters of cells with distinct size and shape, and establish spatial structures that are vital for the maintenance of pluripotency. Even though it is recognized that the cells' arrangement and local interactions play a role in fate decision processes, the relations between transcriptional and spatial patterns have not yet been studied. We present a systems biology approach which combines live-cell imaging, quantitative image analysis, and multiscale, mathematical modeling of ESC growth. In particular, we develop quantitative measures of the morphology and of the spatial clustering of ESCs with different expression levels and apply them to images of both in vitro and in silico cultures. Using the same measures, we are able to compare model scenarios with different assumptions on cell-cell adhesions and intercellular feedback mechanisms directly with experimental data. Applying our methodology to microscopy images of cultured ESCs, we demonstrate that the emerging colonies are highly variable regarding both morphological and spatial fluorescence patterns. Moreover, we can show that most ESC colonies contain only one cluster of cells with high self-renewing capacity. These cells are preferentially located in the interior of a colony structure. The integrated approach combining image analysis with mathematical modeling allows us to reveal potential transcription factor related cellular and intercellular mechanisms behind the emergence of observed patterns that cannot be derived from images directly. © 2015 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

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Jesse Whittington

Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

A Bayesian-Based Approach to Marine Spatial Planning: Evaluating Spatial and Temporal Variance in the Provision of Ecosystem Services Before and After the Establishment Oregon's Marine Protected Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Black, B.; Harte, M.; Goldfinger, C.

2017-12-01

Participating in a ten-year monitoring project to assess the ecological, social, and socioeconomic impacts of Oregon's Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), we have worked in partnership with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) to develop a Bayesian geospatial method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variance in the provision of ecosystem services produced by Oregon's MPAs. Probabilistic (Bayesian) approaches to Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) show considerable potential for addressing issues such as uncertainty, cumulative effects, and the need to integrate stakeholder-held information and preferences into decision making processes. To that end, we have created a Bayesian-based geospatial approach to MSP capable of modelling the evolution of the provision of ecosystem services before and after the establishment of Oregon's MPAs. Our approach permits both planners and stakeholders to view expected impacts of differing policies, behaviors, or choices made concerning Oregon's MPAs and surrounding areas in a geospatial (map) format while simultaneously considering multiple parties' beliefs on the policies or uses in question. We quantify the influence of the MPAs as the shift in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, both inside and outside the protected areas, over time. Once the MPAs' influence on the provision of coastal ecosystem services has been evaluated, it is possible to view these impacts through geovisualization techniques. As a specific example of model use and output, a user could investigate the effects of altering the habitat preferences of a rockfish species over a prescribed period of time (5, 10, 20 years post-harvesting restrictions, etc.) on the relative intensity of spillover from nearby reserves (please see submitted figure). Particular strengths of our Bayesian-based approach include its ability to integrate highly disparate input types (qualitative or quantitative), to accommodate data gaps, address uncertainty, and to

Spatially-Explicit Bayesian Information Entropy Metrics for Calibrating Landscape Transformation Models

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Kostas Alexandridis

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Assessing spatial model performance often presents challenges related to the choice and suitability of traditional statistical methods in capturing the true validity and dynamics of the predicted outcomes. The stochastic nature of many of our contemporary spatial models of land use change necessitate the testing and development of new and innovative methodologies in statistical spatial assessment. In many cases, spatial model performance depends critically on the spatially-explicit prior distributions, characteristics, availability and prevalence of the variables and factors under study. This study explores the statistical spatial characteristics of statistical model assessment of modeling land use change dynamics in a seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin during the historical period of 1963–1990. The artificial neural network-based Land Transformation Model (LTM predictions are used to compare simulated with historical land use transformations in urban/suburban landscapes. We introduce a range of Bayesian information entropy statistical spatial metrics for assessing the model performance across multiple simulation testing runs. Bayesian entropic estimates of model performance are compared against information-theoretic stochastic entropy estimates and theoretically-derived accuracy assessments. We argue for the critical role of informational uncertainty across different scales of spatial resolution in informing spatial landscape model assessment. Our analysis reveals how incorporation of spatial and landscape information asymmetry estimates can improve our stochastic assessments of spatial model predictions. Finally our study shows how spatially-explicit entropic classification accuracy estimates can work closely with dynamic modeling methodologies in improving our scientific understanding of landscape change as a complex adaptive system and process.

A Spatial Model of the Mere Exposure Effect.

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Fink, Edward L.; And Others

1989-01-01

Uses a spatial model to examine the relationship between stimulus exposure, cognition, and affect. Notes that this model accounts for cognitive changes that a stimulus may acquire as a result of exposure. Concludes that the spatial model is useful for evaluating the mere exposure effect and that affective change does not require cognitive change.…

Model for Atmospheric Propagation of Spatially Combined Laser Beams

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS by Kum Leong Lee September...MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Kum Leong Lee 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND...BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS Kum Leong Lee

Housing price prediction: parametric versus semi-parametric spatial hedonic models

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Montero, José-María; Mínguez, Román; Fernández-Avilés, Gema

2018-01-01

House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The models are represented as a mixed model that allow for the estimation of the smoothing parameters along with the other parameters of the model. To assess the out-of-sample performance of the models, the paper uses a database containing the price and characteristics of 10,512 homes in Madrid, Spain (Q1 2010). The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and flexible nonlinear relationships between some of the individual or areal characteristics of the houses and their prices are the best strategies for house price prediction.

Developing a modelling for the spatial data infrastructure

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Hjelmager, J

2005-07-01

Full Text Available The Commission on Spatial Data Standards of the International Cartographic Association (ICA) is working on defining spatial models and technical characteristics of a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI). To date, this work has been restricted...

A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

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Bree Cummins

Full Text Available Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

Spatial Uncertainty Model for Visual Features Using a Kinect™ Sensor

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Jae-Han Park

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

Spatial uncertainty model for visual features using a Kinect™ sensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Han; Shin, Yong-Deuk; Bae, Ji-Hun; Baeg, Moon-Hong

2012-01-01

This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.

2003-01-01

This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling

Spatial Domain Adaptive Control of Nonlinear Rotary Systems Subject to Spatially Periodic Disturbances

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Yen-Hsiu Yang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a generic spatial domain control scheme for a class of nonlinear rotary systems of variable speeds and subject to spatially periodic disturbances. The nonlinear model of the rotary system in time domain is transformed into one in spatial domain employing a coordinate transformation with respect to angular displacement. Under the circumstances that measurement of the system states is not available, a nonlinear state observer is established for providing the estimated states. A two-degree-of-freedom spatial domain control configuration is then proposed to stabilize the system and improve the tracking performance. The first control module applies adaptive backstepping with projected parametric update and concentrates on robust stabilization of the closed-loop system. The second control module introduces an internal model of the periodic disturbances cascaded with a loop-shaping filter, which not only further reduces the tracking error but also improves parametric adaptation. The overall spatial domain output feedback adaptive control system is robust to model uncertainties and state estimated error and capable of rejecting spatially periodic disturbances under varying system speeds. Stability proof of the overall system is given. A design example with simulation demonstrates the applicability of the proposed design.

SPATIAL MODELLING FOR DESCRIBING SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN EASTERN CROATIA

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Igor Bogunović

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to characterize the field-scale spatial variability and test several interpolation methods to identify the best spatial predictor of penetration resistance (PR, bulk density (BD and gravimetric water content (GWC in the silty loam soil in Eastern Croatia. The measurements were made on a 25 x 25-m grid which created 40 individual grid cells. Soil properties were measured at the center of the grid cell deep 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm. Results demonstrated that PR and GWC displayed strong spatial dependence at 0-10 cm BD, while there was moderate and weak spatial dependence of PR, BD and GWC at depth of 10-20 cm. Semi-variogram analysis suggests that future sampling intervals for investigated parameters can be increased to 35 m in order to reduce research costs. Additionally, interpolation models recorded similar root mean square values with high predictive accuracy. Results suggest that investigated properties do not have uniform interpolation method implying the need for spatial modelling in the evaluation of these soil properties in Eastern Croatia.

Infection dynamics on spatial small-world network models

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Iotti, Bryan; Antonioni, Alberto; Bullock, Seth; Darabos, Christian; Tomassini, Marco; Giacobini, Mario

2017-11-01

The study of complex networks, and in particular of social networks, has mostly concentrated on relational networks, abstracting the distance between nodes. Spatial networks are, however, extremely relevant in our daily lives, and a large body of research exists to show that the distances between nodes greatly influence the cost and probability of establishing and maintaining a link. A random geometric graph (RGG) is the main type of synthetic network model used to mimic the statistical properties and behavior of many social networks. We propose a model, called REDS, that extends energy-constrained RGGs to account for the synergic effect of sharing the cost of a link with our neighbors, as is observed in real relational networks. We apply both the standard Watts-Strogatz rewiring procedure and another method that conserves the degree distribution of the network. The second technique was developed to eliminate unwanted forms of spatial correlation between the degree of nodes that are affected by rewiring, limiting the effect on other properties such as clustering and assortativity. We analyze both the statistical properties of these two network types and their epidemiological behavior when used as a substrate for a standard susceptible-infected-susceptible compartmental model. We consider and discuss the differences in properties and behavior between RGGs and REDS as rewiring increases and as infection parameters are changed. We report considerable differences both between the network types and, in the case of REDS, between the two rewiring schemes. We conclude that REDS represent, with the application of these rewiring mechanisms, extremely useful and interesting tools in the study of social and epidemiological phenomena in synthetic complex networks.

A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations

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Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.

2006-03-01

In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.

Spatial models for context-aware indoor navigation systems: A survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imad Afyouni

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper surveys indoor spatial models developed for research fields ranging from mobile robot mapping, to indoor location-based services (LBS, and most recently to context-aware navigation services applied to indoor environments. Over the past few years, several studies have evaluated the potential of spatial models for robot navigation and ubiquitous computing. In this paper we take a slightly different perspective, considering not only the underlying properties of those spatial models, but also to which degree the notion of context can be taken into account when delivering services in indoor environments. Some preliminary recommendations for the development of indoor spatial models are introduced from a context-aware perspective. A taxonomy of models is then presented and assessed with the aim of providing a flexible spatial data model for navigation purposes, and by taking into account the context dimensions.

Spatial-temporal modeling of malware propagation in networks.

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Chen, Zesheng; Ji, Chuanyi

2005-09-01

Network security is an important task of network management. One threat to network security is malware (malicious software) propagation. One type of malware is called topological scanning that spreads based on topology information. The focus of this work is on modeling the spread of topological malwares, which is important for understanding their potential damages, and for developing countermeasures to protect the network infrastructure. Our model is motivated by probabilistic graphs, which have been widely investigated in machine learning. We first use a graphical representation to abstract the propagation of malwares that employ different scanning methods. We then use a spatial-temporal random process to describe the statistical dependence of malware propagation in arbitrary topologies. As the spatial dependence is particularly difficult to characterize, the problem becomes how to use simple (i.e., biased) models to approximate the spatially dependent process. In particular, we propose the independent model and the Markov model as simple approximations. We conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations on large networks using both real measurements and synthesized topologies to test the performance of the proposed models. Our results show that the independent model can capture temporal dependence and detailed topology information and, thus, outperforms the previous models, whereas the Markov model incorporates a certain spatial dependence and, thus, achieves a greater accuracy in characterizing both transient and equilibrium behaviors of malware propagation.

Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

2006-01-01

1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based o...

A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

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Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-12-01

Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

Unleashing spatially distributed ecohydrology modeling using Big Data tools

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Miles, B.; Idaszak, R.

2015-12-01

Physically based spatially distributed ecohydrology models are useful for answering science and management questions related to the hydrology and biogeochemistry of prairie, savanna, forested, as well as urbanized ecosystems. However, these models can produce hundreds of gigabytes of spatial output for a single model run over decadal time scales when run at regional spatial scales and moderate spatial resolutions (~100-km2+ at 30-m spatial resolution) or when run for small watersheds at high spatial resolutions (~1-km2 at 3-m spatial resolution). Numerical data formats such as HDF5 can store arbitrarily large datasets. However even in HPC environments, there are practical limits on the size of single files that can be stored and reliably backed up. Even when such large datasets can be stored, querying and analyzing these data can suffer from poor performance due to memory limitations and I/O bottlenecks, for example on single workstations where memory and bandwidth are limited, or in HPC environments where data are stored separately from computational nodes. The difficulty of storing and analyzing spatial data from ecohydrology models limits our ability to harness these powerful tools. Big Data tools such as distributed databases have the potential to surmount the data storage and analysis challenges inherent to large spatial datasets. Distributed databases solve these problems by storing data close to computational nodes while enabling horizontal scalability and fault tolerance. Here we present the architecture of and preliminary results from PatchDB, a distributed datastore for managing spatial output from the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The initial version of PatchDB uses message queueing to asynchronously write RHESSys model output to an Apache Cassandra cluster. Once stored in the cluster, these data can be efficiently queried to quickly produce both spatial visualizations for a particular variable (e.g. maps and animations), as well

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Combined Spectral and Spatial Modeling of Corn Yield Based on Aerial Images and Crop Surface Models Acquired with an Unmanned Aircraft System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakob Geipel

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Precision Farming (PF management strategies are commonly based on estimations of within-field yield potential, often derived from remotely-sensed products, e.g., Vegetation Index (VI maps. These well-established means, however, lack important information, like crop height. Combinations of VI-maps and detailed 3D Crop Surface Models (CSMs enable advanced methods for crop yield prediction. This work utilizes an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS to capture standard RGB imagery datasets for corn grain yield prediction at three early- to mid-season growth stages. The imagery is processed into simple VI-orthoimages for crop/non-crop classification and 3D CSMs for crop height determination at different spatial resolutions. Three linear regression models are tested on their prediction ability using site-specific (i unclassified mean heights, (ii crop-classified mean heights and (iii a combination of crop-classified mean heights with according crop coverages. The models show determination coefficients \\({R}^{2}\\ of up to 0.74, whereas model (iii performs best with imagery captured at the end of stem elongation and intermediate spatial resolution (0.04m\\(\\cdot\\px\\(^{-1}\\.Following these results, combined spectral and spatial modeling, based on aerial images and CSMs, proves to be a suitable method for mid-season corn yield prediction.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

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Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

A simplified spatial model for BWR stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berman, Y.; Lederer, Y.; Meron, E.

2012-01-01

A spatial reduced order model for the study of BWR stability, based on the phenomenological model of March-Leuba et al., is presented. As one dimensional spatial dependence of the neutron flux, fuel temperature and void fraction is introduced, it is possible to describe both global and regional oscillations of the reactor power. Both linear stability analysis and numerical analysis were applied in order to describe the parameters which govern the model stability. The results were found qualitatively similar to past results. Doppler reactivity feedback was found essential for the explanation of the different regions of the flow-power stability map. (authors)

Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

2011-01-01

The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

Spatial Modelling Tools to Integrate Public Health and Environmental Science, Illustrated with Infectious Cryptosporidiosis.

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Lal, Aparna

2016-02-02

Contemporary spatial modelling tools can help examine how environmental exposures such as climate and land use together with socio-economic factors sustain infectious disease transmission in humans. Spatial methods can account for interactions across global and local scales, geographic clustering and continuity of the exposure surface, key characteristics of many environmental influences. Using cryptosporidiosis as an example, this review illustrates how, in resource rich settings, spatial tools have been used to inform targeted intervention strategies and forecast future disease risk with scenarios of environmental change. When used in conjunction with molecular studies, they have helped determine location-specific infection sources and environmental transmission pathways. There is considerable scope for such methods to be used to identify data/infrastructure gaps and establish a baseline of disease burden in resource-limited settings. Spatial methods can help integrate public health and environmental science by identifying the linkages between the physical and socio-economic environment and health outcomes. Understanding the environmental and social context for disease spread is important for assessing the public health implications of projected environmental change.

Spatial Modelling Tools to Integrate Public Health and Environmental Science, Illustrated with Infectious Cryptosporidiosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aparna Lal

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Contemporary spatial modelling tools can help examine how environmental exposures such as climate and land use together with socio-economic factors sustain infectious disease transmission in humans. Spatial methods can account for interactions across global and local scales, geographic clustering and continuity of the exposure surface, key characteristics of many environmental influences. Using cryptosporidiosis as an example, this review illustrates how, in resource rich settings, spatial tools have been used to inform targeted intervention strategies and forecast future disease risk with scenarios of environmental change. When used in conjunction with molecular studies, they have helped determine location-specific infection sources and environmental transmission pathways. There is considerable scope for such methods to be used to identify data/infrastructure gaps and establish a baseline of disease burden in resource-limited settings. Spatial methods can help integrate public health and environmental science by identifying the linkages between the physical and socio-economic environment and health outcomes. Understanding the environmental and social context for disease spread is important for assessing the public health implications of projected environmental change.

A study of spatial resolution in pollution exposure modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustafsson Susanna

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This study is part of several ongoing projects concerning epidemiological research into the effects on health of exposure to air pollutants in the region of Scania, southern Sweden. The aim is to investigate the optimal spatial resolution, with respect to temporal resolution, for a pollutant database of NOx-values which will be used mainly for epidemiological studies with durations of days, weeks or longer periods. The fact that a pollutant database has a fixed spatial resolution makes the choice critical for the future use of the database. Results The results from the study showed that the accuracy between the modelled concentrations of the reference grid with high spatial resolution (100 m, denoted the fine grid, and the coarser grids (200, 400, 800 and 1600 meters improved with increasing spatial resolution. When the pollutant values were aggregated in time (from hours to days and weeks the disagreement between the fine grid and the coarser grids were significantly reduced. The results also illustrate a considerable difference in optimal spatial resolution depending on the characteristic of the study area (rural or urban areas. To estimate the accuracy of the modelled values comparison were made with measured NOx values. The mean difference between the modelled and the measured value were 0.6 μg/m3 and the standard deviation 5.9 μg/m3 for the daily difference. Conclusion The choice of spatial resolution should not considerably deteriorate the accuracy of the modelled NOx values. Considering the comparison between modelled and measured values we estimate that an error due to coarse resolution greater than 1 μg/m3 is inadvisable if a time resolution of one day is used. Based on the study of different spatial resolutions we conclude that for urban areas a spatial resolution of 200–400 m is suitable; and for rural areas the spatial resolution could be coarser (about 1600 m. This implies that we should develop a pollutant

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

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EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

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DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

2017-01-01

The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

Spatial capture-recapture models for search-encounter data

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Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, Marc; Guelat, Jerome

2011-01-01

1. Spatial capture–recapture models make use of auxiliary data on capture location to provide density estimates for animal populations. Previously, models have been developed primarily for fixed trap arrays which define the observable locations of individuals by a set of discrete points. 2. Here, we develop a class of models for 'search-encounter' data, i.e. for detections of recognizable individuals in continuous space, not restricted to trap locations. In our hierarchical model, detection probability is related to the average distance between individual location and the survey path. The locations are allowed to change over time owing to movements of individuals, and individual locations are related formally by a model describing individual activity or home range centre which is itself regarded as a latent variable in the model. We provide a Bayesian analysis of the model in WinBUGS, and develop a custom MCMC algorithm in the R language. 3. The model is applied to simulated data and to territory mapping data for the Willow Tit from the Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB. While the observed density was 15 territories per nominal 1 km2 plot of unknown effective sample area, the model produced a density estimate of 21∙12 territories per square km (95% posterior interval: 17–26). 4. Spatial capture–recapture models are relevant to virtually all animal population studies that seek to estimate population size or density, yet existing models have been proposed mainly for conventional sampling using arrays of traps. Our model for search-encounter data, where the spatial pattern of searching can be arbitrary and may change over occasions, greatly expands the scope and utility of spatial capture–recapture models.

Modelling spatial relationship between climatic conditions and annual parasite incidence of malaria in southern part of Sistan&Balouchistan Province of Iran using spatial statistic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansour Halimi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: To model spatial relationship between climatic conditions and annual parasite incidence (API of malaria in southern part of Sistan&Balouchistan Province of Iran using spatial statistic models . Methods: A geographical weighted regression model was applied for predicting API by 3 climatic factors in order to model the spatial API of malaria in Sistan&Baluchistan Province of Iran. Results: The results indicated that most important climatic factor for explaining API in Sistan&Baluchistan was annual rainfall being of more importance in southern part of study area such as Chabahar, and Nikshar. The temperature and relative humidity are of the second and third priority respectively. The importance of these two climatic factors is higher in northern part of the studied region. The spatial autocorrelation (Moran ’s I for standard residual of applied geographical weighted regression model is -0.022 which indicated no spatial patterns. Conclusions: This model explained only 0.51 of API spatial variation (R2=0.51. Thus, the nonclimatic factors such as socioeconomic, lifestyle and the neighborhood position of this province with Afghanistan, and Pakistan also should be considered in epidemiological survey of malaria in Sistan&Baluchistan.

Bayesian spatial modeling of HIV mortality via zero-inflated Poisson models.

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Musal, Muzaffer; Aktekin, Tevfik

2013-01-30

In this paper, we investigate the effects of poverty and inequality on the number of HIV-related deaths in 62 New York counties via Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models that exhibit spatial dependence. We quantify inequality via the Theil index and poverty via the ratios of two Census 2000 variables, the number of people under the poverty line and the number of people for whom poverty status is determined, in each Zip Code Tabulation Area. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of inequality and poverty in addition to spatial dependence between neighboring regions on HIV mortality rate, which can lead to improved health resource allocation decisions. In modeling county-specific HIV counts, we propose Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models whose rates are functions of both covariate and spatial/random effects. To show how the proposed models work, we used three different publicly available data sets: TIGER Shapefiles, Census 2000, and mortality index files. In addition, we introduce parameter estimation issues of Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models and discuss MCMC method implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Remote sensing, geographical information systems, and spatial modeling for analyzing public transit services

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Changshan

route maximal covering/shortest path (MRMCSP) model is proposed to address the tradeoff between public transit service quality and access coverage in an established bus-based transit system. Results show that it is possible to improve current transit service quality by eliminating redundant or underutilized service stops. This research illustrates that fine resolution data can be efficiently generated to support urban planning, management and analysis. Further, this detailed data may necessitate the development of new spatial optimization models for use in analysis.

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Goetz, Scott J.; Bockstael, Nancy E.; Jantz, Claire A.

2005-01-01

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies

Multivariate Receptor Models for Spatially Correlated Multipollutant Data

KAUST Repository

Jun, Mikyoung

2013-08-01

The goal of multivariate receptor modeling is to estimate the profiles of major pollution sources and quantify their impacts based on ambient measurements of pollutants. Traditionally, multivariate receptor modeling has been applied to multiple air pollutant data measured at a single monitoring site or measurements of a single pollutant collected at multiple monitoring sites. Despite the growing availability of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites, there has not yet been any attempt to incorporate spatial dependence that may exist in such data into multivariate receptor modeling. We propose a spatial statistics extension of multivariate receptor models that enables us to incorporate spatial dependence into estimation of source composition profiles and contributions given the prespecified number of sources and the model identification conditions. The proposed method yields more precise estimates of source profiles by accounting for spatial dependence in the estimation. More importantly, it enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites as well as when there are missing values at monitoring sites. The method is illustrated with simulated data and real multipollutant data collected from eight monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas. Supplementary materials for this article, including data and R code for implementing the methods, are available online on the journal web site. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-01-01

In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates

Science.gov (United States)

Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.

1989-01-01

A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.

Establishing the isolated Standard Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, James D.; Zhang, Zhengkang; Zhao, Yue

2017-02-01

The goal of this article is to initiate a discussion on what it takes to claim ''there is no new physics at the weak scale,'' namely that the Standard Model (SM) is ''isolated.'' The lack of discovery of beyond the SM (BSM) physics suggests that this may be the case. But to truly establish this statement requires proving all ''connected'' BSM theories are false, which presents a significant challenge. We propose a general approach to quantitatively assess the current status and future prospects of establishing the isolated SM (ISM), which we give a reasonable definition of. We consider broad elements of BSM theories, and show many examples where current experimental results are not sufficient to verify the ISM. In some cases, there is a clear roadmap for the future experimental program, which we outline, while in other cases, further efforts - both theoretical and experimental - are needed in order to robustly claim the establishment of the ISM in the absence of new physics discoveries.

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

STATE OF THE ART OF THE LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE SPATIAL DATA MODEL FROM A GEOSPATIAL PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kastuari

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Spatial data and information had been used for some time in planning or landscape design. For a long time, architects were using spatial data in the form of topographic map for their designs. This method is not efficient, and it is also not more accurate than using spatial analysis by utilizing GIS. Architects are sometimes also only accentuating the aesthetical aspect for their design, but not taking landscape process into account which could cause the design could be not suitable for its use and its purpose. Nowadays, GIS role in landscape architecture has been formalized by the emergence of Geodesign terminology that starts in Representation Model and ends in Decision Model. The development of GIS could be seen in several fields of science that now have the urgency to use 3 dimensional GIS, such as in: 3D urban planning, flood modeling, or landscape planning. In this fields, 3 dimensional GIS is able to support the steps in modeling, analysis, management, and integration from related data, that describe the human activities and geophysics phenomena in more realistic way. Also, by applying 3D GIS and geodesign in landscape design, geomorphology information can be better presented and assessed. In some research, it is mentioned that the development of 3D GIS is not established yet, either in its 3D data structure, or in its spatial analysis function. This study literature will able to accommodate those problems by providing information on existing development of 3D GIS for landscape architecture, data modeling, the data accuracy, representation of data that is needed by landscape architecture purpose, specifically in the river area.

State of the Art of the Landscape Architecture Spatial Data Model from a Geospatial Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Kastuari, A.; Suwardhi, D.; Hanan, H.; Wikantika, K.

2016-10-01

Spatial data and information had been used for some time in planning or landscape design. For a long time, architects were using spatial data in the form of topographic map for their designs. This method is not efficient, and it is also not more accurate than using spatial analysis by utilizing GIS. Architects are sometimes also only accentuating the aesthetical aspect for their design, but not taking landscape process into account which could cause the design could be not suitable for its use and its purpose. Nowadays, GIS role in landscape architecture has been formalized by the emergence of Geodesign terminology that starts in Representation Model and ends in Decision Model. The development of GIS could be seen in several fields of science that now have the urgency to use 3 dimensional GIS, such as in: 3D urban planning, flood modeling, or landscape planning. In this fields, 3 dimensional GIS is able to support the steps in modeling, analysis, management, and integration from related data, that describe the human activities and geophysics phenomena in more realistic way. Also, by applying 3D GIS and geodesign in landscape design, geomorphology information can be better presented and assessed. In some research, it is mentioned that the development of 3D GIS is not established yet, either in its 3D data structure, or in its spatial analysis function. This study literature will able to accommodate those problems by providing information on existing development of 3D GIS for landscape architecture, data modeling, the data accuracy, representation of data that is needed by landscape architecture purpose, specifically in the river area.

Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

Scaling-up spatially-explicit ecological models using graphics processors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koppel, Johan van de; Gupta, Rohit; Vuik, Cornelis

2011-01-01

How the properties of ecosystems relate to spatial scale is a prominent topic in current ecosystem research. Despite this, spatially explicit models typically include only a limited range of spatial scales, mostly because of computing limitations. Here, we describe the use of graphics processors to

Flexible hydrological modeling - Disaggregation from lumped catchment scale to higher spatial resolutions

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Quoc Quan; Willems, Patrick; Pannemans, Bart; Blanckaert, Joris; Pereira, Fernando; Nossent, Jiri; Cauwenberghs, Kris; Vansteenkiste, Thomas

2015-04-01

Based on an international literature review on model structures of existing rainfall-runoff and hydrological models, a generalized model structure is proposed. It consists of different types of meteorological components, storage components, splitting components and routing components. They can be spatially organized in a lumped way, or on a grid, spatially interlinked by source-to-sink or grid-to-grid (cell-to-cell) routing. The grid size of the model can be chosen depending on the application. The user can select/change the spatial resolution depending on the needs and/or the evaluation of the accuracy of the model results, or use different spatial resolutions in parallel for different applications. Major research questions addressed during the study are: How can we assure consistent results of the model at any spatial detail? How can we avoid strong or sudden changes in model parameters and corresponding simulation results, when one moves from one level of spatial detail to another? How can we limit the problem of overparameterization/equifinality when we move from the lumped model to the spatially distributed model? The proposed approach is a step-wise one, where first the lumped conceptual model is calibrated using a systematic, data-based approach, followed by a disaggregation step where the lumped parameters are disaggregated based on spatial catchment characteristics (topography, land use, soil characteristics). In this way, disaggregation can be done down to any spatial scale, and consistently among scales. Only few additional calibration parameters are introduced to scale the absolute spatial differences in model parameters, but keeping the relative differences as obtained from the spatial catchment characteristics. After calibration of the spatial model, the accuracies of the lumped and spatial models were compared for peak, low and cumulative runoff total and sub-flows (at downstream and internal gauging stations). For the distributed models, additional

The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

Science.gov (United States)

Wise, James A.

1988-01-01

A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

Tapered composite likelihood for spatial max-stable models

KAUST Repository

Sang, Huiyan

2014-05-01

Spatial extreme value analysis is useful to environmental studies, in which extreme value phenomena are of interest and meaningful spatial patterns can be discerned. Max-stable process models are able to describe such phenomena. This class of models is asymptotically justified to characterize the spatial dependence among extremes. However, likelihood inference is challenging for such models because their corresponding joint likelihood is unavailable and only bivariate or trivariate distributions are known. In this paper, we propose a tapered composite likelihood approach by utilizing lower dimensional marginal likelihoods for inference on parameters of various max-stable process models. We consider a weighting strategy based on a "taper range" to exclude distant pairs or triples. The "optimal taper range" is selected to maximize various measures of the Godambe information associated with the tapered composite likelihood function. This method substantially reduces the computational cost and improves the efficiency over equally weighted composite likelihood estimators. We illustrate its utility with simulation experiments and an analysis of rainfall data in Switzerland.

Tapered composite likelihood for spatial max-stable models

KAUST Repository

Sang, Huiyan; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

Spatial extreme value analysis is useful to environmental studies, in which extreme value phenomena are of interest and meaningful spatial patterns can be discerned. Max-stable process models are able to describe such phenomena. This class of models is asymptotically justified to characterize the spatial dependence among extremes. However, likelihood inference is challenging for such models because their corresponding joint likelihood is unavailable and only bivariate or trivariate distributions are known. In this paper, we propose a tapered composite likelihood approach by utilizing lower dimensional marginal likelihoods for inference on parameters of various max-stable process models. We consider a weighting strategy based on a "taper range" to exclude distant pairs or triples. The "optimal taper range" is selected to maximize various measures of the Godambe information associated with the tapered composite likelihood function. This method substantially reduces the computational cost and improves the efficiency over equally weighted composite likelihood estimators. We illustrate its utility with simulation experiments and an analysis of rainfall data in Switzerland.

Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

2017-09-01

There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across

Establishment of modified reversible regional cerebral ischemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji Xunming; Ling Feng; Zhao Xiqing; Xuan Yun; Wang Yueqin; Ling Xiaolan; Chang Hongjun; Zhang Zhiping

2005-01-01

Objective: Modifying the method of establishing reversible middle cerebral ischemic models in rats for improvement of the stability and rate of success, so as to raise the reliability of cerebral ischemic study. Methods: Sixty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups, modified and control groups, 30 rats in each group. The method of silicone- tipping on one end of the nylon suture was used to modify the establishment of embolus, and tip-heating method was used to establish the traditional embolus with all the other steps of the procedure just the same. The Zea Longa 5 scoring scale was used to estimate the neurological deficiency while TTC staining method was used to measure and calculate the volume of cerebral infarction. The percentage of successful models with 3-4 grade scorings and the coefficient of the variations of cerebral infarct volume were used to estimate the stability of the models. Results: The rate of success of establishment models in the modification group was significantly higher in comparing with the traditional group (93% vs 60%, χ 2 =9.32, P=0.002). The percentage of model establishment with 3-4 grade neurological scores in modification group was higher than that in the traditional group 96.4% vs 61.2%, χ 2 =9.51, P=0.002). The cerebral infarct volume in modification group and traditional group were (4.1450±0.5019) cm 3 and (3.8435 ± 0.8164) cm 3 , and the coefficients of variation were 12.01% and 21.24% respectively, which indicated that the stability of models was significantly higher in modification group than in the traditional one. Conclusions: The rates of success and stability of the models for reversible focal cerebral ischemia made by the modification method were significantly improved, with decreasing the cost of model creation and increasing the accuracy of study of ischemic cerebral vascular disease. (authors)

A spatial emergy model for Alachua County, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, James David

A spatial model of the distribution of energy flows and storages in Alachua County, Florida, was created and used to analyze spatial patterns of energy transformation hierarchy in relation to spatial patterns of human settlement. Emergy, the available energy of one kind previously required directly or indirectly to make a product or service, was used as a measure of the quality of the different forms of energy flows and storages. Emergy provides a common unit of measure for comparing the productive contributions of natural processes with those of economic and social processes---it is an alternative to using money for measuring value. A geographic information system was used to create a spatial model and make maps that show the distribution and magnitude of different types of energy and emergy flows and storages occurring in one-hectare land units. Energy transformities were used to convert individual energy flows and storages into emergy units. Maps of transformities were created that reveal a clear spatial pattern of energy transformation hierarchy. The maps display patterns of widely-dispersed areas with lower transformity energy flows and storages, and smaller, centrally-located areas with higher transformities. Energy signature graphs and spatial unit transformities were used to characterize and compare the types and amounts of energy being consumed and stored according to land use classification, planning unit, and neighborhood categories. Emergy ratio maps and spatial unit ratios were created by dividing the values for specific emergy flows or storages by the values for other emergy flows or storages. Spatial context analysis was used to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of mean and maximum values for emergy flows and storages. The modeling method developed for this study is general and applicable to all types of landscapes and could be applied at any scale. An advantage of this general approach is that the results of other studies using this method

Bayesian spatial transformation models with applications in neuroimaging data.

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, Michelle F; Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G

2013-12-01

The aim of this article is to develop a class of spatial transformation models (STM) to spatially model the varying association between imaging measures in a three-dimensional (3D) volume (or 2D surface) and a set of covariates. The proposed STM include a varying Box-Cox transformation model for dealing with the issue of non-Gaussian distributed imaging data and a Gaussian Markov random field model for incorporating spatial smoothness of the imaging data. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the STM significantly outperforms the voxel-wise linear model with Gaussian noise in recovering meaningful geometric patterns. Our STM is able to reveal important brain regions with morphological changes in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model: Theory and evidence

OpenAIRE

Fischer, Manfred M.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system ...

A Computational Model of Spatial Development

Science.gov (United States)

Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven

Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.

Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

Establishing the isolated Standard Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, James D.; Zhang, Zhengkang [Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Michigan Center for Theoretical Physics; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Zhao, Yue [Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Michigan Center for Theoretical Physics

2017-02-15

The goal of this article is to initiate a discussion on what it takes to claim ''there is no new physics at the weak scale,'' namely that the Standard Model (SM) is ''isolated.'' The lack of discovery of beyond the SM (BSM) physics suggests that this may be the case. But to truly establish this statement requires proving all ''connected'' BSM theories are false, which presents a significant challenge. We propose a general approach to quantitatively assess the current status and future prospects of establishing the isolated SM (ISM), which we give a reasonable definition of. We consider broad elements of BSM theories, and show many examples where current experimental results are not sufficient to verify the ISM. In some cases, there is a clear roadmap for the future experimental program, which we outline, while in other cases, further efforts - both theoretical and experimental - are needed in order to robustly claim the establishment of the ISM in the absence of new physics discoveries.

Competition in spatial location models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Webers, H.M.

1996-01-01

Models of spatial competition are designed and analyzed to describe the fact that space, by its very nature, is a source of market power. This field of research, lying at the interface of game theory and economics, has attracted much interest because location problems are related to many aspects of

Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

KAUST Repository

Krupskii, Pavel

2016-12-19

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

KAUST Repository

Krupskii, Pavel; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2016-01-01

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, T.L.; Odei, J.B.; Hooten, M.B.; Edwards, T.C.

2010-01-01

Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Spatial modeling of households' knowledge about arsenic pollution in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarker, M Mizanur Rahman

2012-04-01

Arsenic in drinking water is an important public health issue in Bangladesh, which is affected by households' knowledge about arsenic threats from their drinking water. In this study, spatial statistical models were used to investigate the determinants and spatial dependence of households' knowledge about arsenic risk. The binary join matrix/binary contiguity matrix and inverse distance spatial weight matrix techniques are used to capture spatial dependence in the data. This analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across divisions and regions. A positive spatial correlation was found in households' knowledge across neighboring districts at district, divisional and regional levels, but the strength of this spatial correlation varies considerably by spatial weight. Literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, arsenic status, and percentage of red mark tube well usage in districts were found to contribute positively and significantly to households' knowledge. These findings have policy implications both at regional and national levels in mitigating the present arsenic crisis and to ensure arsenic-free water in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial simulation model for the dispersal of the bluetongue vector Culicoides brevitarsis in Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel K Kelso

Full Text Available The spread of Bluetongue virus (BTV among ruminants is caused by movement of infected host animals or by movement of infected Culicoides midges, the vector of BTV. Biologically plausible models of Culicoides dispersal are necessary for predicting the spread of BTV and are important for planning control and eradication strategies.A spatially-explicit simulation model which captures the two underlying population mechanisms, population dynamics and movement, was developed using extensive data from a trapping program for C. brevitarsis on the east coast of Australia. A realistic midge flight sub-model was developed and the annual incursion and population establishment of C. brevitarsis was simulated. Data from the literature was used to parameterise the model.The model was shown to reproduce the spread of C. brevitarsis southwards along the east Australian coastline in spring, from an endemic population to the north. Such incursions were shown to be reliant on wind-dispersal; Culicoides midge active flight on its own was not capable of achieving known rates of southern spread, nor was re-emergence of southern populations due to overwintering larvae. Data from midge trapping programmes were used to qualitatively validate the resulting simulation model.The model described in this paper is intended to form the vector component of an extended model that will also include BTV transmission. A model of midge movement and population dynamics has been developed in sufficient detail such that the extended model may be used to evaluate the timing and extent of BTV outbreaks. This extended model could then be used as a platform for addressing the effectiveness of spatially targeted vaccination strategies or animal movement bans as BTV spread mitigation measures, or the impact of climate change on the risk and extent of outbreaks. These questions involving incursive Culicoides spread cannot be simply addressed with non-spatial models.

Spatial memory tasks in rodents: what do they model?

Science.gov (United States)

Morellini, Fabio

2013-10-01

The analysis of spatial learning and memory in rodents is commonly used to investigate the mechanisms underlying certain forms of human cognition and to model their dysfunction in neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases. Proper interpretation of rodent behavior in terms of spatial memory and as a model of human cognitive functions is only possible if various navigation strategies and factors controlling the performance of the animal in a spatial task are taken into consideration. The aim of this review is to describe the experimental approaches that are being used for the study of spatial memory in rats and mice and the way that they can be interpreted in terms of general memory functions. After an introduction to the classification of memory into various categories and respective underlying neuroanatomical substrates, I explain the concept of spatial memory and its measurement in rats and mice by analysis of their navigation strategies. Subsequently, I describe the most common paradigms for spatial memory assessment with specific focus on methodological issues relevant for the correct interpretation of the results in terms of cognitive function. Finally, I present recent advances in the use of spatial memory tasks to investigate episodic-like memory in mice.

Stability of a spatial model of social interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bragard, Jean; Mossay, Pascal

2016-01-01

We study a spatial model of social interactions. Though the properties of the spatial equilibrium have been largely discussed in the existing literature, the stability of equilibrium remains an unaddressed issue. Our aim is to fill up this gap by introducing dynamics in the model and by determining the stability of equilibrium. First we derive a variational equation useful for the stability analysis. This allows to study the corresponding eigenvalue problem. While odd modes are shown to be always stable, there is a single even mode of which stability depends on the model parameters. Finally various numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical results.

Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Kim B; Pfeiffer, Dirk U

2011-09-01

The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial measurement error and correction by spatial SIMEX in linear regression models when using predicted air pollution exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent

2016-04-01

Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accounting for regional background and population size in the detection of spatial clusters and outliers using geostatistical filtering and spatial neutral models: the case of lung cancer in Long Island, New York

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goovaerts Pierre

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Complete Spatial Randomness (CSR is the null hypothesis employed by many statistical tests for spatial pattern, such as local cluster or boundary analysis. CSR is however not a relevant null hypothesis for highly complex and organized systems such as those encountered in the environmental and health sciences in which underlying spatial pattern is present. This paper presents a geostatistical approach to filter the noise caused by spatially varying population size and to generate spatially correlated neutral models that account for regional background obtained by geostatistical smoothing of observed mortality rates. These neutral models were used in conjunction with the local Moran statistics to identify spatial clusters and outliers in the geographical distribution of male and female lung cancer in Nassau, Queens, and Suffolk counties, New York, USA. Results We developed a typology of neutral models that progressively relaxes the assumptions of null hypotheses, allowing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation, non-uniform risk, and incorporation of spatially heterogeneous population sizes. Incorporation of spatial autocorrelation led to fewer significant ZIP codes than found in previous studies, confirming earlier claims that CSR can lead to over-identification of the number of significant spatial clusters or outliers. Accounting for population size through geostatistical filtering increased the size of clusters while removing most of the spatial outliers. Integration of regional background into the neutral models yielded substantially different spatial clusters and outliers, leading to the identification of ZIP codes where SMR values significantly depart from their regional background. Conclusion The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to assess geographic relationships using appropriate null hypotheses that account for the background variation extant in real-world systems. In particular, this new

A novel spatial performance metric for robust pattern optimization of distributed hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, C.; Koch, J.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of performance is an integral part of model development and calibration as well as it is of paramount importance when communicating modelling results to stakeholders and the scientific community. There exists a comprehensive and well tested toolbox of metrics to assess temporal model performance in the hydrological modelling community. On the contrary, the experience to evaluate spatial performance is not corresponding to the grand availability of spatial observations readily available and to the sophisticate model codes simulating the spatial variability of complex hydrological processes. This study aims at making a contribution towards advancing spatial pattern oriented model evaluation for distributed hydrological models. This is achieved by introducing a novel spatial performance metric which provides robust pattern performance during model calibration. The promoted SPAtial EFficiency (spaef) metric reflects three equally weighted components: correlation, coefficient of variation and histogram overlap. This multi-component approach is necessary in order to adequately compare spatial patterns. spaef, its three components individually and two alternative spatial performance metrics, i.e. connectivity analysis and fractions skill score, are tested in a spatial pattern oriented model calibration of a catchment model in Denmark. The calibration is constrained by a remote sensing based spatial pattern of evapotranspiration and discharge timeseries at two stations. Our results stress that stand-alone metrics tend to fail to provide holistic pattern information to the optimizer which underlines the importance of multi-component metrics. The three spaef components are independent which allows them to complement each other in a meaningful way. This study promotes the use of bias insensitive metrics which allow comparing variables which are related but may differ in unit in order to optimally exploit spatial observations made available by remote sensing

Habitat modeling for cetacean management: Spatial distribution in the southern Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

Science.gov (United States)

Pennino, Maria Grazia; Mérigot, Bastien; Fonseca, Vinícius Prado; Monni, Virginia; Rotta, Andrea

2017-07-01

Effective management and conservation of wild populations requires knowledge of their habitats, especially by mean of quantitative analyses of their spatial distributions. The Pelagos Sanctuary is a dedicated marine protected area for Mediterranean marine mammals covering an area of 90,000 km2 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea between Italy, France and the Principate of Monaco. In the south of the Sanctuary, i.e. along the Sardinian coast, a range of diverse human activities (cities, industry, fishery, tourism) exerts several current ad potential threats to cetacean populations. In addition, marine mammals are recognized by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive as essential components of sustainable ecosystems. Yet, knowledge on the spatial distribution and ecology of cetaceans in this area is quite scarce. Here we modeled occurrence of the three most abundant species known in the Sanctuary, i.e. the striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and the fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), using sighting data from scientific surveys collected from 2012 to 2014 during summer time. Bayesian site-occupancy models were used to model their spatial distribution in relation to habitat taking into account oceanographic (sea surface temperature, primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll-a concentration) and topographic (depth, slope, distance of the land) variables. Cetaceans responded differently to the habitat features, with higher occurrence predicted in the more productive areas on submarine canyons. These results provide ecological information useful to enhance management plans and establish baseline for future population trend studies.

Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Jeppe Søgaard

When studying the dynamics of living systems, insight can often be gained by developing a mathematical model that can predict future behaviour of the system or help classify system characteristics. However, in living cells, organisms, and especially groups of interacting individuals, a large number...... variables of the system. However, this approach disregards any spatial structure of the system, which may potentially change the behaviour drastically. An alternative approach is to construct a cellular automaton with nearest neighbour interactions, or even to model the system as a complex network...... with interactions defined by network topology. In this thesis I first describe three different biological models of ageing and cancer, in which spatial structure is important for the system dynamics. I then turn to describe characteristics of ecosystems consisting of three cyclically interacting species...

Spatial Preference Modelling for equitable infrastructure provision: an application of Sen's Capability Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Wismadi, Arif; Zuidgeest, Mark; Brussel, Mark; van Maarseveen, Martin

2014-01-01

To determine whether the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling allows spatial decision support systems (SDSSs) to better address spatial equity, we introduce Spatial Preference Modelling (SPM). To evaluate the effectiveness of this model in addressing equity, various standardisation functions in both Non-Spatial Preference Modelling and SPM are compared. The evaluation involves applying the model to a resource location-allocation problem for transport infrastructure in the Special Province of Yogyakarta in Indonesia. We apply Amartya Sen's Capability Approach to define opportunity to mobility as a non-income indicator. Using the extended Moran's I interpretation for spatial equity, we evaluate the distribution output regarding, first, `the spatial distribution patterns of priority targeting for allocation' (SPT) and, second, `the effect of new distribution patterns after location-allocation' (ELA). The Moran's I index of the initial map and its comparison with six patterns for SPT as well as ELA consistently indicates that the SPM is more effective for addressing spatial equity. We conclude that the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling improves the capability of SDSS to address spatial equity. This study thus proposes a new formal method for SDSS with specific attention on resource location-allocation to address spatial equity.

Cosmological backreaction within the Szekeres model and emergence of spatial curvature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolejko, Krzysztof, E-mail: krzysztof.bolejko@sydney.edu.au [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006 (Australia)

2017-06-01

This paper discusses the phenomenon of backreaction within the Szekeres model. Cosmological backreaction describes how the mean global evolution of the Universe deviates from the Friedmannian evolution. The analysis is based on models of a single cosmological environment and the global ensemble of the Szekeres models (of the Swiss-Cheese-type and Styrofoam-type). The obtained results show that non-linear growth of cosmic structures is associated with the growth of the spatial curvature Ω{sub R} (in the FLRW limit Ω{sub R} → Ω {sub k} ). If averaged over global scales the result depends on the assumed global model of the Universe. Within the Swiss-Cheese model, which does have a fixed background, the volume average follows the evolution of the background, and the global spatial curvature averages out to zero (the background model is the ΛCDM model, which is spatially flat). In the Styrofoam-type model, which does not have a fixed background, the mean evolution deviates from the spatially flat ΛCDM model, and the mean spatial curvature evolves from Ω{sub R} =0 at the CMB to Ω{sub R} ∼ 0.1 at 0 z =. If the Styrofoam-type model correctly captures evolutionary features of the real Universe then one should expect that in our Universe, the spatial curvature should build up (local growth of cosmic structures) and its mean global average should deviate from zero (backreaction). As a result, this paper predicts that the low-redshift Universe should not be spatially flat (i.e. Ω {sub k} ≠ 0, even if in the early Universe Ω {sub k} = 0) and therefore when analysing low- z cosmological data one should keep Ω {sub k} as a free parameter and independent from the CMB constraints.

Is a matrix exponential specification suitable for the modeling of spatial correlation structures?

Science.gov (United States)

Strauß, Magdalena E; Mezzetti, Maura; Leorato, Samantha

2017-05-01

This paper investigates the adequacy of the matrix exponential spatial specifications (MESS) as an alternative to the widely used spatial autoregressive models (SAR). To provide as complete a picture as possible, we extend the analysis to all the main spatial models governed by matrix exponentials comparing them with their spatial autoregressive counterparts. We propose a new implementation of Bayesian parameter estimation for the MESS model with vague prior distributions, which is shown to be precise and computationally efficient. Our implementations also account for spatially lagged regressors. We further allow for location-specific heterogeneity, which we model by including spatial splines. We conclude by comparing the performances of the different model specifications in applications to a real data set and by running simulations. Both the applications and the simulations suggest that the spatial splines are a flexible and efficient way to account for spatial heterogeneities governed by unknown mechanisms.

Rockfall hazard analysis using LiDAR and spatial modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, Hengxing; Martin, C. Derek; Zhou, Chenghu; Lim, Chang Ho

2010-05-01

Rockfalls have been significant geohazards along the Canadian Class 1 Railways (CN Rail and CP Rail) since their construction in the late 1800s. These rockfalls cause damage to infrastructure, interruption of business, and environmental impacts, and their occurrence varies both spatially and temporally. The proactive management of these rockfall hazards requires enabling technologies. This paper discusses a hazard assessment strategy for rockfalls along a section of a Canadian railway using LiDAR and spatial modeling. LiDAR provides accurate topographical information of the source area of rockfalls and along their paths. Spatial modeling was conducted using Rockfall Analyst, a three dimensional extension to GIS, to determine the characteristics of the rockfalls in terms of travel distance, velocity and energy. Historical rockfall records were used to calibrate the physical characteristics of the rockfall processes. The results based on a high-resolution digital elevation model from a LiDAR dataset were compared with those based on a coarse digital elevation model. A comprehensive methodology for rockfall hazard assessment is proposed which takes into account the characteristics of source areas, the physical processes of rockfalls and the spatial attribution of their frequency and energy.

Modelling the Spatial Isotope Variability of Precipitation in Syria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kattan, Z.; Kattaa, B. [Department of Geology, Atomic Energy Commission of Syria (AECS), Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic)

2013-07-15

Attempts were made to model the spatial variability of environmental isotope ({sup 18}O, {sup 2}H and {sup 3}H) compositions of precipitation in syria. Rainfall samples periodically collected on a monthly basis from 16 different stations were used for processing and demonstrating the spatial distributions of these isotopes, together with those of deuterium excess (d) values. Mathematically, the modelling process was based on applying simple polynomial models that take into consideration the effects of major geographic factors (Lon.E., Lat.N., and altitude). The modelling results of spatial distribution of stable isotopes ({sup 18}O and {sup 2}H) were generally good, as shown from the high correlation coefficients (R{sup 2} = 0.7-0.8), calculated between the observed and predicted values. In the case of deuterium excess and tritium distributions, the results were most likely approximates (R{sup 2} = 0.5-0.6). Improving the simulation of spatial isotope variability probably requires the incorporation of other local meteorological factors, such as relative air humidity, precipitation amount and vapour pressure, which are supposed to play an important role in such an arid country. (author)

Multi-Scale Influences of Climate, Spatial Pattern, and Positive Feedback on 20th Century Tree Establishment at Upper Treeline in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, G. P.

2009-12-01

The influences of 20th century climate, spatial pattern of tree establishment, and positive feedback were assessed to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad scale abiotic and local scale biotic components interact to govern upper treeline ecotonal dynamics along a latitudinal gradient (ca. 35°N-45°N) in the Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n = 22) were in the Bighorn, Medicine Bow, Front Range, and Sangre de Cristo mountain ranges. Dendroecological techniques were used for a broad scale analysis of climate at treeline. Five-year age-structure classes were compared with identical five-year bins of 20th century climate data using Spearman’s rank correlation and regime shift analysis. Local scale biotic interactions capable of ameliorating broad scale climate inputs through positive feedback were examined by using Ripley’s K to determine the spatial patterns of tree establishment above timberline. Significant correlations (p Medicine Bow and Sangre de Cristo Mountains primarily contain clustered spatial patterns of trees above timberline, which indicates a strong reliance on the amelioration of abiotic conditions through positive feedback with nearby vegetation. Although clustered spatial patterns likely originate in response to harsh abiotic conditions such as drought or constant strong winds, the local scale biotic interactions within a clustered formation of trees appears to override the immediate influence of broad scale climate. This is evidenced both by a lack of significant correlations between tree establishment and climate in these mountain ranges, as well as the considerable lag times between initial climate regime shifts and corresponding shifts in tree age structure. Taken together, this research suggests that the influence of broad scale climate on upper treeline ecotonal dynamics is contingent on the local scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. These findings have global implications for our

Spatially Informed Plant PRA Models for Security Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wheeler, Timothy A.; Thomas, Willard; Thornsbury, Eric

2006-01-01

Traditional risk models can be adapted to evaluate plant response for situations where plant systems and structures are intentionally damaged, such as from sabotage or terrorism. This paper describes a process by which traditional risk models can be spatially informed to analyze the effects of compound and widespread harsh environments through the use of 'damage footprints'. A 'damage footprint' is a spatial map of regions of the plant (zones) where equipment could be physically destroyed or disabled as a direct consequence of an intentional act. The use of 'damage footprints' requires that the basic events from the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) be spatially transformed so that the failure of individual components can be linked to the destruction of or damage to specific spatial zones within the plant. Given the nature of intentional acts, extensive modifications must be made to the risk models to account for the special nature of the 'initiating events' associated with deliberate adversary actions. Intentional acts might produce harsh environments that in turn could subject components and structures to one or more insults, such as structural, fire, flood, and/or vibration and shock damage. Furthermore, the potential for widespread damage from some of these insults requires an approach that addresses the impacts of these potentially severe insults even when they occur in locations distant from the actual physical location of a component or structure modeled in the traditional PRA. (authors)

Analysing the distribution of synaptic vesicles using a spatial point process model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khanmohammadi, Mahdieh; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Nava, Nicoletta

2014-01-01

functionality by statistically modelling the distribution of the synaptic vesicles in two groups of rats: a control group subjected to sham stress and a stressed group subjected to a single acute foot-shock (FS)-stress episode. We hypothesize that the synaptic vesicles have different spatial distributions...... in the two groups. The spatial distributions are modelled using spatial point process models with an inhomogeneous conditional intensity and repulsive pairwise interactions. Our results verify the hypothesis that the two groups have different spatial distributions....

Predictive spatio-temporal model for spatially sparse global solar radiation data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

André, Maïna; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Soubdhan, Ted; Ould-Baba, Hanany

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at a located station for very short time scale. We built a multivariate model in using few stations (3 stations) separated with irregular distances from 26 km to 56 km. The proposed model is a spatio temporal vector autoregressive VAR model specifically designed for the analysis of spatially sparse spatio-temporal data. This model differs from classic linear models in using spatial and temporal parameters where the available predictors are the lagged values at each station. A spatial structure of stations is defined by the sequential introduction of predictors in the model. Moreover, an iterative strategy in the process of our model will select the necessary stations removing the uninteresting predictors and also selecting the optimal p-order. We studied the performance of this model. The metric error, the relative root mean squared error (rRMSE), is presented at different short time scales. Moreover, we compared the results of our model to simple and well known persistence model and those found in literature. - Highlights: • A spatio-temporal VAR forecast model is used for spatially sparse data solar. • Lags and locations are selected by an optimization strategy. • Definition of spatial ordering of predictors influences forecasting results. • The model shows a better performance predictive at 30 min ahead in our context. • Benchmarking study shows a more accurate forecast at 1 h ahead with spatio-temporal VAR.

Spatial modeling using mixed models: an ecologic study of visceral leishmaniasis in Teresina, Piauí State, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Werneck Guilherme L.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Most ecologic studies use geographical areas as units of observation. Because data from areas close to one another tend to be more alike than those from distant areas, estimation of effect size and confidence intervals should consider spatial autocorrelation of measurements. In this report we demonstrate a method for modeling spatial autocorrelation within a mixed model framework, using data on environmental and socioeconomic determinants of the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the city of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil. A model with a spherical covariance structure indicated significant spatial autocorrelation in the data and yielded a better fit than one assuming independent observations. While both models showed a positive association between VL incidence and residence in a favela (slum or in areas with green vegetation, values for the fixed effects and standard errors differed substantially between the models. Exploration of the data's spatial correlation structure through the semivariogram should precede the use of these models. Our findings support the hypothesis of spatial dependence of VL rates and indicate that it might be useful to model spatial correlation in order to obtain more accurate point and standard error estimates.

Comparison of alternative spatial resolutions in the application of a spatially distributed biogeochemical model over complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D.P.; Dodson, R.; Marks, D.

1996-01-01

Spatially distributed biogeochemical models may be applied over grids at a range of spatial resolutions, however, evaluation of potential errors and loss of information at relatively coarse resolutions is rare. In this study, a georeferenced database at the 1-km spatial resolution was developed to initialize and drive a process-based model (Forest-BGC) of water and carbon balance over a gridded 54976 km2 area covering two river basins in mountainous western Oregon. Corresponding data sets were also prepared at 10-km and 50-km spatial resolutions using commonly employed aggregation schemes. Estimates were made at each grid cell for climate variables including daily solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The topographic structure, water holding capacity, vegetation type and leaf area index were likewise estimated for initial conditions. The daily time series for the climatic drivers was developed from interpolations of meteorological station data for the water year 1990 (1 October 1989-30 September 1990). Model outputs at the 1-km resolution showed good agreement with observed patterns in runoff and productivity. The ranges for model inputs at the 10-km and 50-km resolutions tended to contract because of the smoothed topography. Estimates for mean evapotranspiration and runoff were relatively insensitive to changing the spatial resolution of the grid whereas estimates of mean annual net primary production varied by 11%. The designation of a vegetation type and leaf area at the 50-km resolution often subsumed significant heterogeneity in vegetation, and this factor accounted for much of the difference in the mean values for the carbon flux variables. Although area wide means for model outputs were generally similar across resolutions, difference maps often revealed large areas of disagreement. Relatively high spatial resolution analyses of biogeochemical cycling are desirable from several perspectives and may be particularly important in the

Advanced spatial metrics analysis in cellular automata land use and cover change modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamyatin, Alexander; Cabral, Pedro

2011-01-01

This paper proposes an approach for a more effective definition of cellular automata transition rules for landscape change modeling using an advanced spatial metrics analysis. This approach considers a four-stage methodology based on: (i) the search for the appropriate spatial metrics with minimal correlations; (ii) the selection of the appropriate neighborhood size; (iii) the selection of the appropriate technique for spatial metrics application; and (iv) the analysis of the contribution level of each spatial metric for joint use. The case study uses an initial set of 7 spatial metrics of which 4 are selected for modeling. Results show a better model performance when compared to modeling without any spatial metrics or with the initial set of 7 metrics.

Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF)

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF) was developed by Dr. Scott Havens at the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in Boise, ID. SMRF was designed to increase the flexibility of taking measured weather data and distributing the point measurements across a watershed. SMRF was developed...

Establishing a cat model of acute optic nerve injury

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: In order to investigate the progress in optic nerve injury and the following regeneration and repair, many kinds of animal models of optic nerve injury have been established, such as models of acute and chronic ocular hypertension, compression, amputating wound, ischemia reperfusion or hypoxia,intravitreal injection of excitatory amino acids, etc. However, most of these models are established by squeezing intraorbital optic nerve, and suitable for ophthalmology, and there are fewer models suitable for the acute cranial contusion in neurosurgery.OBJECTIVE: To observe the changes of optic nerve after acute injury, and the characteristics of methods for establishing model of acute optic nerve injury in cats.DESIGN: A complete randomized grouping and controlled animal trial.SETTING: Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Ji'nan Military Area Command of Chinese PLA.MATERIALS: Twenty-eight healthy adult cats, common degree, either sex, weighing 2.0 - 3.5 kg, were provided by the animal experimental center of Fudan University. The cats were randomly divided into control group (n =3) and model group (n =25), and 5 cats in the model group were observed at 6 hours and 1,3, 7 and 14 days after injury respectively. JX-2000 biological signal processing system (Department of Physiology, Second Military Medical University of Chinese PLA, Shanghai); Inverted phase contrast microscope (Olympus); Axioplan 2 imaging microgram analytical system (Labsystems).METHODS: The experiments were carried out in the Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Jinan Military Area Command of Chinese PLA from June 2004 to June 2005. The cats in the model groups were made into models of acute optic nerve injury: The cats were anesthetized, then the limbs were fixed in a lateral recumbent position. Pterion approach in human was imitated, the operative incision was made along the line between lateral canthus and tragus, and it could be seen deep along the skull base that white

Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

2017-04-01

To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark

The importance of spatial ability and mental models in learning anatomy

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Allison K.

As a foundational course in medical education, gross anatomy serves to orient medical and veterinary students to the complex three-dimensional nature of the structures within the body. Understanding such spatial relationships is both fundamental and crucial for achievement in gross anatomy courses, and is essential for success as a practicing professional. Many things contribute to learning spatial relationships; this project focuses on a few key elements: (1) the type of multimedia resources, particularly computer-aided instructional (CAI) resources, medical students used to study and learn; (2) the influence of spatial ability on medical and veterinary students' gross anatomy grades and their mental models; and (3) how medical and veterinary students think about anatomy and describe the features of their mental models to represent what they know about anatomical structures. The use of computer-aided instruction (CAI) by gross anatomy students at Indiana University School of Medicine (IUSM) was assessed through a questionnaire distributed to the regional centers of the IUSM. Students reported using internet browsing, PowerPoint presentation software, and email on a daily bases to study gross anatomy. This study reveals that first-year medical students at the IUSM make limited use of CAI to study gross anatomy. Such studies emphasize the importance of examining students' use of CAI to study gross anatomy prior to development and integration of electronic media into the curriculum and they may be important in future decisions regarding the development of alternative learning resources. In order to determine how students think about anatomical relationships and describe the features of their mental models, personal interviews were conducted with select students based on students' ROT scores. Five typologies of the characteristics of students' mental models were identified and described: spatial thinking, kinesthetic approach, identification of anatomical structures

Modeling spatial processes with unknown extremal dependence class

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaë l G.; Wadsworth, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

The impact of design-based modeling instruction on seventh graders' spatial abilities and model-based argumentation

Science.gov (United States)

McConnell, William J.

Due to the call of current science education reform for the integration of engineering practices within science classrooms, design-based instruction is receiving much attention in science education literature. Although some aspect of modeling is often included in well-known design-based instructional methods, it is not always a primary focus. The purpose of this study was to better understand how design-based instruction with an emphasis on scientific modeling might impact students' spatial abilities and their model-based argumentation abilities. In the following mixed-method multiple case study, seven seventh grade students attending a secular private school in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States underwent an instructional intervention involving design-based instruction, modeling and argumentation. Through the course of a lesson involving students in exploring the interrelatedness of the environment and an animal's form and function, students created and used multiple forms of expressed models to assist them in model-based scientific argument. Pre/post data were collected through the use of The Purdue Spatial Visualization Test: Rotation, the Mental Rotation Test and interviews. Other data included a spatial activities survey, student artifacts in the form of models, notes, exit tickets, and video recordings of students throughout the intervention. Spatial abilities tests were analyzed using descriptive statistics while students' arguments were analyzed using the Instrument for the Analysis of Scientific Curricular Arguments and a behavior protocol. Models were analyzed using content analysis and interviews and all other data were coded and analyzed for emergent themes. Findings in the area of spatial abilities included increases in spatial reasoning for six out of seven participants, and an immense difference in the spatial challenges encountered by students when using CAD software instead of paper drawings to create models. Students perceived 3D printed

Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

2015-08-01

Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.

Science.gov (United States)

Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat

2012-01-01

A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.

Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

Establishment of animal model with half-liver cirrhosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Zhenghan; Zhou Cheng; Chen Min; Xie Jingxia; Zhang Yuewu; Hu Bifang; Mo Hongbo; Wu Xiao

2003-01-01

Objective: To establish a new cirrhosis model suitable for imaging study. Methods: Via a 4 F catheter, 50-100 μl of carbon tetrachloride was injected into the left or right hepatic artery of 12 dogs fortnightly. Liver functional test, imaging study, and pathological examination were performed in these dogs regularly. Results: As the times of injection increased, necrosis of hepatocytes, fibrosis, and cirrhosis of the liver aggravated. In each dog, cirrhosis was more serious in the half liver with carbon tetrachloride injection than in the other half liver without carbon tetrachloride injection. With this model, it was convenient to perform the imaging study of liver cirrhosis. Conclusion: Animal model with half-liver cirrhosis can be established by combining catheter technique and traditional method

China's Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-09-18

Background : Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China's economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods : Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM 2.5 . Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results : It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM 2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions : Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables.

Spatial Modeling of Deforestation in FMU of Poigar, North Sulawesi

OpenAIRE

Ahmad, Afandi; Saleh, Muhammad Buce; Rusolono, Teddy

2016-01-01

Forest is a part of the ecosystem that provides environmental services. Deforestation may decrease forest function in an ecosystem. This study aims to build a spatial model of deforestation in a forest management unit (FMU) of Poigar. Deforestation analysis carried out by analyze the change of forest cover into non-forest cover with post classification comparison technique. Driving forces of deforestation carried out by spatial modeling using binary logistic regression models (LRM). Result of...

Spatial Advertisement Competition: Based on Game Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheng-xun Tan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Since advertisement is an important strategy of firms to improve market share, this paper highlights duopoly advertisement under the Hotelling model. A model of advertisement under spatial duopoly is established, and corresponding effects of brand values and transportation costs are all captured. This study presents the proportion of sales revenue spending on advertisement. The condition for free-rider in advertisement investment is discussed. Under firms with the identical brand values, if firms' advertisement points to corresponding consumers, price and advertisement investment are all reduced. Therefore, advertisement is discussed under spatial competition in this work.

Automating an integrated spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection

Science.gov (United States)

Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri; Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Aziz, Hamidi Abdul

2017-10-01

An integrated programming environment represents a robust approach to building a valid model for landfill site selection. One of the main challenges in the integrated model is the complicated processing and modelling due to the programming stages and several limitations. An automation process helps avoid the limitations and improve the interoperability between integrated programming environments. This work targets the automation of a spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection by integrating between spatial programming environment (Python-ArcGIS) and non-spatial environment (MATLAB). The model was constructed using neural networks and is divided into nine stages distributed between Matlab and Python-ArcGIS. A case study was taken from the north part of Peninsular Malaysia. 22 criteria were selected to utilise as input data and to build the training and testing datasets. The outcomes show a high-performance accuracy percentage of 98.2% in the testing dataset using 10-fold cross validation. The automated spatial data mining model provides a solid platform for decision makers to performing landfill site selection and planning operations on a regional scale.

Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

Science.gov (United States)

Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

2017-03-01

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

Modeling spatial-temporal operations with context-dependent associative memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizraji, Eduardo; Lin, Juan

2015-10-01

We organize our behavior and store structured information with many procedures that require the coding of spatial and temporal order in specific neural modules. In the simplest cases, spatial and temporal relations are condensed in prepositions like "below" and "above", "behind" and "in front of", or "before" and "after", etc. Neural operators lie beneath these words, sharing some similarities with logical gates that compute spatial and temporal asymmetric relations. We show how these operators can be modeled by means of neural matrix memories acting on Kronecker tensor products of vectors. The complexity of these memories is further enhanced by their ability to store episodes unfolding in space and time. How does the brain scale up from the raw plasticity of contingent episodic memories to the apparent stable connectivity of large neural networks? We clarify this transition by analyzing a model that flexibly codes episodic spatial and temporal structures into contextual markers capable of linking different memory modules.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation is...... varying characteristics markedly. This suggests that omitted variable bias may remain an important problem. We advocate for an increased use of sensitivity analysis to determine robustness of estimates to different models of the (omitted) spatial processes....

Practical likelihood analysis for spatial generalized linear mixed models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonat, W. H.; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano

2016-01-01

We investigate an algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of spatial generalized linear mixed models based on the Laplace approximation. We compare our algorithm with a set of alternative approaches for two datasets from the literature. The Rhizoctonia root rot and the Rongelap are......, respectively, examples of binomial and count datasets modeled by spatial generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the Laplace approximation provides similar estimates to Markov Chain Monte Carlo likelihood, Monte Carlo expectation maximization, and modified Laplace approximation. Some advantages...... of Laplace approximation include the computation of the maximized log-likelihood value, which can be used for model selection and tests, and the possibility to obtain realistic confidence intervals for model parameters based on profile likelihoods. The Laplace approximation also avoids the tuning...

Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

OpenAIRE

Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

2016-01-01

In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

2010-04-01

Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

On Angular Sampling Methods for 3-D Spatial Channel Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fan, Wei; Jämsä, Tommi; Nielsen, Jesper Ødum

2015-01-01

This paper discusses generating three dimensional (3D) spatial channel models with emphasis on the angular sampling methods. Three angular sampling methods, i.e. modified uniform power sampling, modified uniform angular sampling, and random pairing methods are proposed and investigated in detail....... The random pairing method, which uses only twenty sinusoids in the ray-based model for generating the channels, presents good results if the spatial channel cluster is with a small elevation angle spread. For spatial clusters with large elevation angle spreads, however, the random pairing method would fail...... and the other two methods should be considered....

Towards models of strategic spatial choice behaviour: theory and application issues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, Q.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2005-01-01

Models of spatial choice behaviour have been around in urban planning for decades to assess the feasibility of planning actions or to predict external (competition) effects on existing destinations. The well known spatial interaction models of the 1970s have gradually been replaced by discrete

Technical Progress and Development Directions of Oceanic Spatial Information Datum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BAO Jingyang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper briefly analyzes the basic development and technical situation of oceanic spatial information datum, reviews the main processes of oceanic vertical datum and correlative oceanic tidal study, such as improvement and perfect methods of determining tidal station vertical datum, realizing form of vertical datum controlled by tidal station, effect on maintaining vertical datum by long-term tidal station, oceanic tidal model establishing, and also construction and transformation of tidal datum, and then forecasts the key development directions of oceanic spatial information datum on high-accuracy marine position service, vertical datum and the transferring model refinement and spatial datum application.

Development of a Discrete Spatial-Temporal SEIR Simulator for Modeling Infectious Diseases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKenna, S.A.

2000-11-01

Multiple techniques have been developed to model the temporal evolution of infectious diseases. Some of these techniques have also been adapted to model the spatial evolution of the disease. This report examines the application of one such technique, the SEIR model, to the spatial and temporal evolution of disease. Applications of the SEIR model are reviewed briefly and an adaptation to the traditional SEIR model is presented. This adaptation allows for modeling the spatial evolution of the disease stages at the individual level. The transmission of the disease between individuals is modeled explicitly through the use of exposure likelihood functions rather than the global transmission rate applied to populations in the traditional implementation of the SEIR model. These adaptations allow for the consideration of spatially variable (heterogeneous) susceptibility and immunity within the population. The adaptations also allow for modeling both contagious and non-contagious diseases. The results of a number of numerical experiments to explore the effect of model parameters on the spread of an example disease are presented.

Spatial scale effects in environmental risk-factor modelling for diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ram K. Raghavan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Studies attempting to identify environmental risk factors for diseases can be seen to extract candidate variables from remotely sensed datasets, using a single buffer-zone surrounding locations from where disease status are recorded. A retrospective case-control study using canine leptospirosis data was conducted to verify the effects of changing buffer-zones (spatial extents on the risk factors derived. The case-control study included 94 case dogs predominantly selected based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR test for leptospires in urine, and 185 control dogs based on negative PCR. Land cover features from National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD and Kansas Gap Analysis Program (KS GAP around geocoded addresses of cases/controls were extracted using multiple buffers at every 500 m up to 5,000 m, and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of different land cover variables to dogs. The types and statistical significance of risk factors identified changed with an increase in spatial extent in both datasets. Leptospirosis status in dogs was significantly associated with developed high-intensity areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2000 m, developed medium-intensity areas beyond 2,000 m and up to 3,000 m, and evergreen forests beyond 3,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in the NLCD. Significant associations were seen in urban areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2,500 m and forest/woodland areas beyond 2,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in Kansas gap analysis programme datasets. The use of ad hoc spatial extents can be misleading or wrong, and the determination of an appropriate spatial extent is critical when extracting environmental variables for studies. Potential work-arounds for this problem are discussed.

Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

KAUST Repository

Zhang, L.; Mai, Paul Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

KAUST Repository

Zhang, L.

2014-11-10

Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

Spatial Memory in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats (SHR)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sontag, Thomas-A.; Fuermaier, Anselm B. M.; Hauser, Joachim; Kaunzinger, Ivo; Tucha, Oliver; Lange, Klaus W.

2013-01-01

The spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) is an established animal model of ADHD. It has been suggested that ADHD symptoms arise from deficits in executive functions such as working memory, attentional control and decision making. Both ADHD patients and SHRs show deficits in spatial working memory.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model using observed spatial patterns from MODIS data

Science.gov (United States)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; González, Gorka M.; Mai, Juliane; Stisen, Simon

2016-04-01

Distributed hydrologic models are typically calibrated against streamflow observations at the outlet of the basin. Along with these observations from gauging stations, satellite based estimates offer independent evaluation data such as remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (aET) and land surface temperature. The primary objective of the study is to compare model calibrations against traditional downstream discharge measurements with calibrations against simulated spatial patterns and combinations of both types of observations. While the discharge based model calibration typically improves the temporal dynamics of the model, it seems to give rise to minimum improvement of the simulated spatial patterns. In contrast, objective functions specifically targeting the spatial pattern performance could potentially increase the spatial model performance. However, most modeling studies, including the model formulations and parameterization, are not designed to actually change the simulated spatial pattern during calibration. This study investigates the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). This model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the optimization of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) values directly as input. In addition the simulated aET can be estimated at a spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed with MODIS data. To increase our control on spatial calibration we introduced three additional parameters to the model. These new parameters are part of an empirical equation to the calculate crop coefficient (Kc) from daily LAI maps and used to update potential evapotranspiration (PET) as model inputs. This is done instead of correcting/updating PET with just a uniform (or aspect driven) factor used in the mHM model

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Modern methodology and applications in spatial-temporal modeling

CERN Document Server

Matsui, Tomoko

2015-01-01

This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized methodological and applied aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter deals with non-parametric Bayesian inference via a recently developed framework known as kernel mean embedding which has had a significant influence in machine learning disciplines. The second chapter takes up non-parametric statistical methods for spatial field reconstruction and exceedance probability estimation based on Gaussian process-based models in the context of wireless sensor network data. The third chapter presents signal-processing methods applied to acoustic mood analysis based on music signal analysis. The fourth chapter covers models that are applicable to time series modeling in the domain of speech and language processing. This includes aspects of factor analysis, independent component an...

Probing interaction and spatial curvature in the holographic dark energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Miao; Li, Xiao-Dong; Wang, Shuang; Wang, Yi; Zhang, Xin

2009-01-01

In this paper we place observational constraints on the interaction and spatial curvature in the holographic dark energy model. We consider three kinds of phenomenological interactions between holographic dark energy and matter, i.e., the interaction term Q is proportional to the energy densities of dark energy (ρ Λ ), matter (ρ m ), and matter plus dark energy (ρ m +ρ Λ ). For probing the interaction and spatial curvature in the holographic dark energy model, we use the latest observational data including the type Ia supernovae (SNIa) Constitution data, the shift parameter of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) given by the five-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP5) observations, and the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurement from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our results show that the interaction and spatial curvature in the holographic dark energy model are both rather small. Besides, it is interesting to find that there exists significant degeneracy between the phenomenological interaction and the spatial curvature in the holographic dark energy model

Lessons learned for spatial modelling of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem accounting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schroter, M.; Remme, R.P.; Sumarga, E.; Barton, D.N.; Hein, L.G.

2015-01-01

Assessment of ecosystem services through spatial modelling plays a key role in ecosystem accounting. Spatial models for ecosystem services try to capture spatial heterogeneity with high accuracy. This endeavour, however, faces several practical constraints. In this article we analyse the trade-offs

Spatial pattern of diarrhea based on regional economic and environment by spatial autoregressive model

Science.gov (United States)

Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy

2014-10-01

The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.

Promoting Model-based Definition to Establish a Complete Product Definition.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruemler, Shawn P; Zimmerman, Kyle E; Hartman, Nathan W; Hedberg, Thomas; Feeny, Allison Barnard

2017-05-01

The manufacturing industry is evolving and starting to use 3D models as the central knowledge artifact for product data and product definition, or what is known as Model-based Definition (MBD). The Model-based Enterprise (MBE) uses MBD as a way to transition away from using traditional paper-based drawings and documentation. As MBD grows in popularity, it is imperative to understand what information is needed in the transition from drawings to models so that models represent all the relevant information needed for processes to continue efficiently. Finding this information can help define what data is common amongst different models in different stages of the lifecycle, which could help establish a Common Information Model. The Common Information Model is a source that contains common information from domain specific elements amongst different aspects of the lifecycle. To help establish this Common Information Model, information about how models are used in industry within different workflows needs to be understood. To retrieve this information, a survey mechanism was administered to industry professionals from various sectors. Based on the results of the survey a Common Information Model could not be established. However, the results gave great insight that will help in further investigation of the Common Information Model.

A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

KAUST Repository

Irincheeva, Irina; Cantoni, Eva; Genton, Marc G.

2012-01-01

We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

KAUST Repository

Irincheeva, Irina

2012-08-03

We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

Spatial equity analysis on expressway network development in Japan: Empirical approach using the spatial computable general equilibrium model RAEM-light

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koike, A.; Tavasszy, L.; Sato, K.

2009-01-01

The authors apply the RAEM-Light model to analyze the distribution of social benefits from expressway network projects from the viewpoint of spatial equity. The RAEM-Light model has some innovative features. The spatial behavior of producers and consumers is explicitly described and is endogenously

Seed Dispersal, Microsites or Competition—What Drives Gap Regeneration in an Old-Growth Forest? An Application of Spatial Point Process Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georg Gratzer

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The spatial structure of trees is a template for forest dynamics and the outcome of a variety of processes in ecosystems. Identifying the contribution and magnitude of the different drivers is an age-old task in plant ecology. Recently, the modelling of a spatial point process was used to identify factors driving the spatial distribution of trees at stand scales. Processes driving the coexistence of trees, however, frequently unfold within gaps and questions on the role of resource heterogeneity within-gaps have become central issues in community ecology. We tested the applicability of a spatial point process modelling approach for quantifying the effects of seed dispersal, within gap light environment, microsite heterogeneity, and competition on the generation of within gap spatial structure of small tree seedlings in a temperate, old growth, mixed-species forest. By fitting a non-homogeneous Neyman–Scott point process model, we could disentangle the role of seed dispersal from niche partitioning for within gap tree establishment and did not detect seed densities as a factor explaining the clustering of small trees. We found only a very weak indication for partitioning of within gap light among the three species and detected a clear niche segregation of Picea abies (L. Karst. on nurse logs. The other two dominating species, Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L., did not show signs of within gap segregation.

Fractionating dead reckoning: role of the compass, odometer, logbook, and home base establishment in spatial orientation

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Douglas G.; Martin, Megan M.; Winter, Shawn S.

2008-06-01

Rats use multiple sources of information to maintain spatial orientation. Although previous work has focused on rats’ use of environmental cues, a growing number of studies have demonstrated that rats also use self-movement cues to organize navigation. This review examines the extent that kinematic analysis of naturally occurring behavior has provided insight into processes that mediate dead-reckoning-based navigation. This work supports a role for separate systems in processing self-movement cues that converge on the hippocampus. The compass system is involved in deriving directional information from self-movement cues; whereas, the odometer system is involved in deriving distance information from self-movement cues. The hippocampus functions similar to a logbook in that outward path unique information from the compass and odometer is used to derive the direction and distance of a path to the point at which movement was initiated. Finally, home base establishment may function to reset this system after each excursion and anchor environmental cues to self-movement cues. The combination of natural behaviors and kinematic analysis has proven to be a robust paradigm to investigate the neural basis of spatial orientation.

A cortical edge-integration model of object-based lightness computation that explains effects of spatial context and individual differences

Science.gov (United States)

Rudd, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Previous work has demonstrated that perceived surface reflectance (lightness) can be modeled in simple contexts in a quantitatively exact way by assuming that the visual system first extracts information about local, directed steps in log luminance, then spatially integrates these steps along paths through the image to compute lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2004, 2005, 2007). This method of computing lightness is called edge integration. Recent evidence (Rudd, 2013) suggests that human vision employs a default strategy to integrate luminance steps only along paths from a common background region to the targets whose lightness is computed. This implies a role for gestalt grouping in edge-based lightness computation. Rudd (2010) further showed the perceptual weights applied to edges in lightness computation can be influenced by the observer's interpretation of luminance steps as resulting from either spatial variation in surface reflectance or illumination. This implies a role for top-down factors in any edge-based model of lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2005). Here, I show how the separate influences of grouping and attention on lightness can be modeled in tandem by a cortical mechanism that first employs top-down signals to spatially select regions of interest for lightness computation. An object-based network computation, involving neurons that code for border-ownership, then automatically sets the neural gains applied to edge signals surviving the earlier spatial selection stage. Only the borders that survive both processing stages are spatially integrated to compute lightness. The model assumptions are consistent with those of the cortical lightness model presented earlier by Rudd (2010, 2013), and with neurophysiological data indicating extraction of local edge information in V1, network computations to establish figure-ground relations and border ownership in V2, and edge integration to encode lightness and darkness signals in V4. PMID:25202253

A Cortical Edge-integration Model of Object-Based Lightness Computation that Explains Effects of Spatial Context and Individual Differences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael E Rudd

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Previous work demonstrated that perceived surface reflectance (lightness can be modeled in simple contexts in a quantitatively exact way by assuming that the visual system first extracts information about local, directed steps in log luminance, then spatial integrates these steps along paths through the image to compute lightness (Rudd & Zemach, 2004, 2005, 2007. This method of computing lightness is called edge integration. Recent evidence (Rudd, 2013 suggests that the human vision employs a default strategy to integrate luminance steps only along paths from a common background region to the targets whose lightness is computed. This implies a role for gestalt grouping in edge-based lightness computation. Rudd (2010 further showed the perceptual weights applied to edges in lightness computation can be influenced by the observer’s interpretation of luminance steps as resulting from either spatial variation in surface reflectance or illumination. This implies a role for top-down factors in any edge-based model of lightness (Rudd & Zemach, 2005. Here, I show how the separate influences of grouping and attention on lightness can be together modeled by a cortical mechanism that first employs top-down signals to spatially select regions of interest for lightness computation. An object-based network computation, involving neurons that code for border-ownership, then automatically sets the neural gains applied to edge signals surviving the earlier spatial selection stage. Only the borders that survive both processing stages are spatially integrated to compute lightness. The model assumptions are consistent with those of the cortical lightness model presented earlier by Rudd (2010, 2013, and with neurophysiological data indicating extraction of local edge information in V1, network computations to establish figure-ground relations and border ownership in V2, and edge integration to encode lightness and darkness signals in V4.

A cortical edge-integration model of object-based lightness computation that explains effects of spatial context and individual differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudd, Michael E

2014-01-01

Previous work has demonstrated that perceived surface reflectance (lightness) can be modeled in simple contexts in a quantitatively exact way by assuming that the visual system first extracts information about local, directed steps in log luminance, then spatially integrates these steps along paths through the image to compute lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2004, 2005, 2007). This method of computing lightness is called edge integration. Recent evidence (Rudd, 2013) suggests that human vision employs a default strategy to integrate luminance steps only along paths from a common background region to the targets whose lightness is computed. This implies a role for gestalt grouping in edge-based lightness computation. Rudd (2010) further showed the perceptual weights applied to edges in lightness computation can be influenced by the observer's interpretation of luminance steps as resulting from either spatial variation in surface reflectance or illumination. This implies a role for top-down factors in any edge-based model of lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2005). Here, I show how the separate influences of grouping and attention on lightness can be modeled in tandem by a cortical mechanism that first employs top-down signals to spatially select regions of interest for lightness computation. An object-based network computation, involving neurons that code for border-ownership, then automatically sets the neural gains applied to edge signals surviving the earlier spatial selection stage. Only the borders that survive both processing stages are spatially integrated to compute lightness. The model assumptions are consistent with those of the cortical lightness model presented earlier by Rudd (2010, 2013), and with neurophysiological data indicating extraction of local edge information in V1, network computations to establish figure-ground relations and border ownership in V2, and edge integration to encode lightness and darkness signals in V4.

Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barrios, J.M.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J.; Farifteh, J.; Coppin, P.

2012-01-01

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the

Modelling spatial trends in sorghum breeding field trials using a two-dimensional P-spline mixed model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.G. Velazco (Julio G.); M.X. Rodríguez-Álvarez (María Xosé); M.P. Boer (Martin); D.R. Jordan (David R.); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul); M. Malosetti (Marcos); F. van Eeuwijk (Fred)

2017-01-01

markdownabstract_Key message: A flexible and user-friendly spatial method called SpATS performed comparably to more elaborate and trial-specific spatial models in a series of sorghum breeding trials._ __Abstract:__ Adjustment for spatial trends in plant breeding field trials is essential for

A Structural Equation Approach to Models with Spatial Dependence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oud, Johan H. L.; Folmer, Henk

We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it

A structural equation approach to models with spatial dependence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

2008-01-01

We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it

A Structural Equation Approach to Models with Spatial Dependence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

2008-01-01

We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it

Toward micro-scale spatial modeling of gentrification

Science.gov (United States)

O'Sullivan, David

A simple preliminary model of gentrification is presented. The model is based on an irregular cellular automaton architecture drawing on the concept of proximal space, which is well suited to the spatial externalities present in housing markets at the local scale. The rent gap hypothesis on which the model's cell transition rules are based is discussed. The model's transition rules are described in detail. Practical difficulties in configuring and initializing the model are described and its typical behavior reported. Prospects for further development of the model are discussed. The current model structure, while inadequate, is well suited to further elaboration and the incorporation of other interesting and relevant effects.

Modelling spatial trends in sorghum breeding field trials using a two-dimensional P-spline mixed model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velazco, Julio G.; Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Boer, Martin P.; Jordan, David R.; Eilers, Paul H.C.; Malosetti, Marcos; Eeuwijk, van Fred A.

2017-01-01

Key message: A flexible and user-friendly spatial method called SpATS performed comparably to more elaborate and trial-specific spatial models in a series of sorghum breeding trials. Abstract: Adjustment for spatial trends in plant breeding field trials is essential for efficient evaluation and

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Approximate inference for spatial functional data on massively parallel processors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raket, Lars Lau; Markussen, Bo

2014-01-01

With continually increasing data sizes, the relevance of the big n problem of classical likelihood approaches is greater than ever. The functional mixed-effects model is a well established class of models for analyzing functional data. Spatial functional data in a mixed-effects setting...... in linear time. An extremely efficient GPU implementation is presented, and the proposed methods are illustrated by conducting a classical statistical analysis of 2D chromatography data consisting of more than 140 million spatially correlated observation points....

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Endreny, Theodore A.; Nowak, David J.

2013-09-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat storage based on semiempirical functions and generates spatially distributed estimates based on inputs of topography, land cover, and the weather data measured at a reference site. The model assumes that for all grids under the same mesoscale climate, grid air temperature and humidity are modified by local variation in absorbed solar radiation and the partitioning of sensible and latent heat. The model uses a reference grid site for time series meteorological data and the air temperature and humidity of any other grid can be obtained by solving the heat flux network equations. PASATH was coupled with the USDA iTree-Hydro water balance model to obtain evapotranspiration terms and run from 20 to 29 August 2010 at a 360 m by 360 m grid scale and hourly time step across a 285 km2 watershed including the urban area of Syracuse, NY. PASATH predictions were tested at nine urban weather stations representing variability in urban topography and land cover. The PASATH model predictive efficiency R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.99 for air temperature and 0.77 to 0.97 for dew point temperature. PASATH is expected to have broad applications on environmental and ecological models.

Spatial Disaggregation of Areal Rainfall Using Two Different Artificial Neural Networks Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sungwon Kim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop artificial neural network (ANN models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP and Kohonen self-organizing feature map (KSOFM, for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall in the Wi-stream catchment, an International Hydrological Program (IHP representative catchment, in South Korea. A three-layer MLP model, using three training algorithms, was used to estimate areal rainfall. The Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm was found to be more sensitive to the number of hidden nodes than were the conjugate gradient and quickprop training algorithms using the MLP model. Results showed that the networks structures of 11-5-1 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 11-3-1 (Levenberg-Marquardt were the best for estimating areal rainfall using the MLP model. The networks structures of 1-5-11 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 1-3-11 (Levenberg–Marquardt, which are the inverse networks for estimating areal rainfall using the best MLP model, were identified for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall using the MLP model. The KSOFM model was compared with the MLP model for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall. The MLP and KSOFM models could disaggregate areal rainfall into individual point rainfall with spatial concepts.

Modeling spatial processes with unknown extremal dependence class

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël G.

2017-03-17

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models that exhibit a property known as asymptotic independence. However, weakening dependence does not automatically imply asymptotic independence, and whether the process is truly asymptotically (in)dependent is usually far from clear. The distinction is key as it can have a large impact upon extrapolation, i.e., the estimated probabilities of events more extreme than those observed. In this work, we present a single spatial model that is able to capture both dependence classes in a parsimonious manner, and with a smooth transition between the two cases. The model covers a wide range of possibilities from asymptotic independence through to complete dependence, and permits weakening dependence of extremes even under asymptotic dependence. Censored likelihood-based inference for the implied copula is feasible in moderate dimensions due to closed-form margins. The model is applied to oceanographic datasets with ambiguous true limiting dependence structure.

Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

2015-02-01

Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plejdrup, M S; Gyldenkaerne, S

2011-04-15

The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

Modelling 3D spatial objects in a geo-DBMS using a 3D primitive

Science.gov (United States)

Arens, Călin; Stoter, Jantien; van Oosterom, Peter

2005-03-01

There is a growing interest in modelling the world in three dimensions, both in applications and in science. At the same time, geographical information systems are changing into integrated architecture in which administrative and spatial data are maintained in one environment. It is for this reason that mainstream Data Base Management Systems (DBMSs) have implemented spatial data types according to the 'Simple Feature Specifications for SQL', described by the OpenGeospatial Consortium. However, these specifications are 2D, as indeed are the implementations in DBMSs. At the Section GIS Technology of TU Delft, research has been carried out in which a 3D primitive was implemented in a DBMS (Oracle Spatial). To explore the possibilities and complications, a fairly simple 3D primitive was chosen to start with: a polyhedron. In the future the study will be extended with more complex primitives, the ultimate aim being to build 3D models with features closer to the real world. Besides the data structure, a validation function was developed to check the geometric accuracy of the data. Rules for validation were established and translated into prototype implementations with the aid of literature. In order to manipulate the data, a list of useful 3D functions was specified. Most of these were translated into algorithms, which were implemented in the DBMS. The algorithms for these functions were obtained from the relevant literature. The research also comprised a comparative performance test on spatial indexing in 2D and 3D, using an R-tree. Finally, existing software was used to visualize 3D objects structured with the implemented 3D primitive. This research is a first attempt to implement a true 3D primitive in a DBMS. Future research will focus on extending and improving the implementations and on optimizing maintenance and query of 3D objects in DBMSs.

Accounting for and predicting the influence of spatial autocorrelation in water quality modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Miralha, L.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

Although many studies have attempted to investigate the spatial trends of water quality, more attention is yet to be paid to the consequences of considering and ignoring the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) that exists in water quality parameters. Several studies have mentioned the importance of accounting for SAC in water quality modeling, as well as the differences in outcomes between models that account for and ignore SAC. However, the capacity to predict the magnitude of such differences is still ambiguous. In this study, we hypothesized that SAC inherently possessed by a response variable (i.e., water quality parameter) influences the outcomes of spatial modeling. We evaluated whether the level of inherent SAC is associated with changes in R-Squared, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and residual SAC (rSAC), after accounting for SAC during modeling procedure. The main objective was to analyze if water quality parameters with higher Moran's I values (inherent SAC measure) undergo a greater increase in R² and a greater reduction in both AIC and rSAC. We compared a non-spatial model (OLS) to two spatial regression approaches (spatial lag and error models). Predictor variables were the principal components of topographic (elevation and slope), land cover, and hydrological soil group variables. We acquired these data from federal online sources (e.g. USGS). Ten watersheds were selected, each in a different state of the USA. Results revealed that water quality parameters with higher inherent SAC showed substantial increase in R² and decrease in rSAC after performing spatial regressions. However, AIC values did not show significant changes. Overall, the higher the level of inherent SAC in water quality variables, the greater improvement of model performance. This indicates a linear and direct relationship between the spatial model outcomes (R² and rSAC) and the degree of SAC in each water quality variable. Therefore, our study suggests that the inherent level of

. Redundancy and blocking in the spatial domain: A connectionist model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. P. L. Mc Laren

2002-01-01

Full Text Available How can the observations of spatial blocking (Rodrigo, Chamizo, McLaren & Mackintosh, 1997 and cue redundancy (O’Keefe and Conway, 1978 be reconciled within the framework provided by an error-correcting, connectionist account of spatial navigation? I show that an implementation of McLaren’s (1995 better beta model can serve this purpose, and examine some of the implications for spatial learning and memory.

A Mathematical Approach to Establishing Constitutive Models for Geomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guang-hua Yang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The mathematical foundation of the traditional elastoplastic constitutive theory for geomaterials is presented from the mathematical point of view, that is, the expression of stress-strain relationship in principal stress/strain space being transformed to the expression in six-dimensional space. A new framework is then established according to the mathematical theory of vectors and tensors, which is applicable to establishing elastoplastic models both in strain space and in stress space. Traditional constitutive theories can be considered as its special cases. The framework also enables modification of traditional constitutive models.

Spatial variability and parametric uncertainty in performance assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James; Painter, Scott; Tomishima, Yasuo

2011-01-01

The problem of defining an appropriate treatment of distribution functions (which could represent spatial variability or parametric uncertainty) is examined based on a generic performance assessment model for a high-level waste repository. The generic model incorporated source term models available in GoldSim ® , the TDRW code for contaminant transport in sparse fracture networks with a complex fracture-matrix interaction process, and a biosphere dose model known as BDOSE TM . Using the GoldSim framework, several Monte Carlo sampling approaches and transport conceptualizations were evaluated to explore the effect of various treatments of spatial variability and parametric uncertainty on dose estimates. Results from a model employing a representative source and ensemble-averaged pathway properties were compared to results from a model allowing for stochastic variation of transport properties along streamline segments (i.e., explicit representation of spatial variability within a Monte Carlo realization). We concluded that the sampling approach and the definition of an ensemble representative do influence consequence estimates. In the examples analyzed in this paper, approaches considering limited variability of a transport resistance parameter along a streamline increased the frequency of fast pathways resulting in relatively high dose estimates, while those allowing for broad variability along streamlines increased the frequency of 'bottlenecks' reducing dose estimates. On this basis, simplified approaches with limited consideration of variability may suffice for intended uses of the performance assessment model, such as evaluation of site safety. (author)

Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index and estimates of soil depth spatial distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Lanni

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Topographic index-based hydrological models have gained wide use to describe the hydrological control on the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the catchment scale. A common assumption in these models is that a spatially continuous water table occurs simultaneously across the catchment. However, during a rainfall event isolated patches of subsurface saturation form above an impeding layer and their hydrological connectivity is a necessary condition for lateral flow initiation at a point on the hillslope.

Here, a new hydrological model is presented, which allows us to account for the concept of hydrological connectivity while keeping the simplicity of the topographic index approach. A dynamic topographic index is used to describe the transient lateral flow that is established at a hillslope element when the rainfall amount exceeds a threshold value allowing for (a development of a perched water table above an impeding layer, and (b hydrological connectivity between the hillslope element and its own upslope contributing area. A spatially variable soil depth is the main control of hydrological connectivity in the model. The hydrological model is coupled with the infinite slope stability model and with a scaling model for the rainfall frequency–duration relationship to determine the return period of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability on three catchments located in the Italian Alps, where a survey of soil depth spatial distribution is available. The model is compared with a quasi-dynamic model in which the dynamic nature of the hydrological connectivity is neglected. The results show a better performance of the new model in predicting observed shallow landslides, implying that soil depth spatial variability and connectivity bear a significant control on shallow landsliding.

Spatial modeling on the upperstream of the Citarum watershed: An application of geoinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Ningrum, Windy Setia; Widyaningsih, Yekti; Indra, Tito Latif

2017-03-01

The Citarum watershed is the longest and the largest watershed in West Java, Indonesia, located at 106°51'36''-107°51' E and 7°19'-6°24'S across 10 districts, and serves as the water supply for over 15 million people. In this area, the water criticality index is concerned to reach the balance between water supply and water demand, so that in the dry season, the watershed is still able to meet the water needs of the society along the Citarum river. The objective of this research is to evaluate the water criticality index of Citarum watershed area using spatial model to overcome the spatial dependencies in the data. The result of Lagrange multiplier diagnostics for spatial dependence results are LM-err = 34.6 (p-value = 4.1e-09) and LM-lag = 8.05 (p-value = 0.005), then modeling using Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were conducted. The likelihood ratio test show that both of SLM dan SEM model is better than OLS model in modeling water criticality index in Citarum watershed. The AIC value of SLM and SEM model are 78.9 and 51.4, then the SEM model is better than SLM model in predicting water criticality index in Citarum watershed.

Modelling firm heterogeneity with spatial 'trends'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarmiento, C. [North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND (United States). Dept. of Agricultural Business & Applied Economics

2004-04-15

The hypothesis underlying this article is that firm heterogeneity can be captured by spatial characteristics of the firm (similar to the inclusion of a time trend in time series models). The hypothesis is examined in the context of modelling electric generation by coal powered plants in the presence of firm heterogeneity.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-01-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-06-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model - a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mendiguren, Gorka; Koch, Julian; Stisen, Simon

2017-11-01

Distributed hydrological models are traditionally evaluated against discharge stations, emphasizing the temporal and neglecting the spatial component of a model. The present study widens the traditional paradigm by highlighting spatial patterns of evapotranspiration (ET), a key variable at the land-atmosphere interface, obtained from two different approaches at the national scale of Denmark. The first approach is based on a national water resources model (DK-model), using the MIKE-SHE model code, and the second approach utilizes a two-source energy balance model (TSEB) driven mainly by satellite remote sensing data. Ideally, the hydrological model simulation and remote-sensing-based approach should present similar spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of ET. However, the spatial comparison showed that the differences are significant and indicate insufficient spatial pattern performance of the hydrological model.The differences in spatial patterns can partly be explained by the fact that the hydrological model is configured to run in six domains that are calibrated independently from each other, as it is often the case for large-scale multi-basin calibrations. Furthermore, the model incorporates predefined temporal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI), root depth (RD) and crop coefficient (Kc) for each land cover type. This zonal approach of model parameterization ignores the spatiotemporal complexity of the natural system. To overcome this limitation, this study features a modified version of the DK-model in which LAI, RD and Kc are empirically derived using remote sensing data and detailed soil property maps in order to generate a higher degree of spatiotemporal variability and spatial consistency between the six domains. The effects of these changes are analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to evaluate spatial patterns. The EOF analysis shows that including remote-sensing-derived LAI, RD and Kc in the distributed hydrological model adds

Examining the Spatial Distribution of Marijuana Establishments in Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Kerski, Joseph

2018-01-01

In this 22-question activity, high school students investigate the spatial distribution of marijuana stores in Colorado using an interactive web map containing stores, centers, highways, population, and other data at several scales. After completing this lesson, students will know and be able to: (1) Use interactive maps, layers, and tools in…

Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Wardrop, Nicola A; Kuo, Chi-Chien; Wang, Hsi-Chieh; Clements, Archie C A; Lee, Pei-Fen; Atkinson, Peter M

2013-11-01

Scrub typhus is transmitted by the larval stage of trombiculid mites. Environmental factors, including land cover and land use, are known to influence breeding and survival of trombiculid mites and, thus, also the spatial heterogeneity of scrub typhus risk. Here, a spatially autoregressive modelling framework was applied to scrub typhus incidence data from Taiwan, covering the period 2003 to 2011, to provide increased understanding of the spatial pattern of scrub typhus risk and the environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to this pattern. A clear spatial pattern in scrub typhus incidence was observed within Taiwan, and incidence was found to be significantly correlated with several land cover classes, temperature, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, population density, average income and the proportion of the population that work in agriculture. The final multivariate regression model included statistically significant correlations between scrub typhus incidence and average income (negatively correlated), the proportion of land that contained mosaics of cropland and vegetation (positively correlated) and elevation (positively correlated). These results highlight the importance of land cover on scrub typhus incidence: mosaics of cropland and vegetation represent a transitional land cover type which can provide favourable habitats for rodents and, therefore, trombiculid mites. In Taiwan, these transitional land cover areas tend to occur in less populated and mountainous areas, following the frontier establishment and subsequent partial abandonment of agricultural cultivation, due to demographic and socioeconomic changes. Future land use policy decision-making should ensure that potential public health outcomes, such as modified risk of scrub typhus, are considered.

Real-time distribution of pelagic fish: combining hydroacoustics, GIS and spatial modelling at a fine spatial scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Muška, Milan; Tušer, Michal; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Ricard, Daniel; Seďa, Jaromír; Morelli, Federico; Kubečka, Jan

2018-03-29

Understanding spatial distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environment remains one of the chief issues in ecology. Spatial organization of freshwater fish was investigated predominantly on large-scale, neglecting important local conditions and ecological processes. However, small-scale processes are of an essential importance for individual habitat preferences and hence structuring trophic cascades and species coexistence. In this work, we analysed the real-time spatial distribution of pelagic freshwater fish in the Římov Reservoir (Czechia) observed by hydroacoustics in relation to important environmental predictors during 48 hours at 3-h interval. Effect of diurnal cycle was revealed of highest significance in all spatial models with inverse trends between fish distribution and predictors in day and night in general. Our findings highlighted daytime pelagic fish distribution as highly aggregated, with general fish preferences for central, deep and highly illuminated areas, whereas nighttime distribution was more disperse and fish preferred nearshore steep sloped areas with higher depth. This turnover suggests prominent movements of significant part of fish assemblage between pelagic and nearshore areas on a diel basis. In conclusion, hydroacoustics, GIS and spatial modelling proved as valuable tool for predicting local fish distribution and elucidate its drivers, which has far reaching implications for understanding freshwater ecosystem functioning.

Genome-wide significant localization for working and spatial memory: Identifying genes for psychosis using models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Knowles, Emma E M; Carless, Melanie A; de Almeida, Marcio A A; Curran, Joanne E; McKay, D Reese; Sprooten, Emma; Dyer, Thomas D; Göring, Harald H; Olvera, Rene; Fox, Peter; Almasy, Laura; Duggirala, Ravi; Kent, Jack W; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C

2014-01-01

It is well established that risk for developing psychosis is largely mediated by the influence of genes, but identifying precisely which genes underlie that risk has been problematic. Focusing on endophenotypes, rather than illness risk, is one solution to this problem. Impaired cognition is a well-established endophenotype of psychosis. Here we aimed to characterize the genetic architecture of cognition using phenotypically detailed models as opposed to relying on general IQ or individual neuropsychological measures. In so doing we hoped to identify genes that mediate cognitive ability, which might also contribute to psychosis risk. Hierarchical factor models of genetically clustered cognitive traits were subjected to linkage analysis followed by QTL region-specific association analyses in a sample of 1,269 Mexican American individuals from extended pedigrees. We identified four genome wide significant QTLs, two for working and two for spatial memory, and a number of plausible and interesting candidate genes. The creation of detailed models of cognition seemingly enhanced the power to detect genetic effects on cognition and provided a number of possible candidate genes for psychosis. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Establishing 3d numerical reservoir analogues : Modelling the formation of sand bodies in deltaic environments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Vegt, H.; Storms, J.E.A.; Walstra, D.J.R.

2014-01-01

The assessment and production of hydrocarbon resources incorporates geological models created from core and wireline well data, as well as seismic data. This data is spatially discrete but is used create a spatially continuous model. However, the heterogeneity within depositional environments is on

Chapter 4: Establishment of the integrated modelling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This chapter summarizes how the Integrated Modelling System has been established. The Danubian Lowland Information System (DLIS) has been developed, providing a central database and Geographical Information System (GIS) with facilities for data storage, maintenance, processing and presentation. In addition, data can be imported and exported in the file formats readable for the applied modelling system

Modeling Spatially Unrestricted Pedestrian Traffic on Footbridges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zivanovic, Stana; Pavic, Aleksandar; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór

2010-01-01

restricted movement of pedestrians, has kept attracting attention of researchers. However, it is the normal spatially unrestricted pedestrian traffic, and its vertical dynamic loading component, that are most relevant for vibration serviceability checks for most footbridges. Despite the existence of numerous...... design procedures concerned with this loading, the current confidence in its modelling is low due to lack of verification of the models on as-built structures. This is the motivation behind reviewing the existing design procedures for modelling normal pedestrian traffic in this paper and evaluating...

Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drechsler, Martin; Ohl, Cornelia; Meyerhoff, Juergen; Eichhorn, Marcus; Monsees, Jan

2011-01-01

Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO 2 emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: → We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. → Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. → External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. → Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

Linear multivariate evaluation models for spatial perception of soundscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Zhiyong; Kang, Jian; Wang, Daiwei; Liu, Aili; Kang, Joe Zhengyu

2015-11-01

Soundscape is a sound environment that emphasizes the awareness of auditory perception and social or cultural understandings. The case of spatial perception is significant to soundscape. However, previous studies on the auditory spatial perception of the soundscape environment have been limited. Based on 21 native binaural-recorded soundscape samples and a set of auditory experiments for subjective spatial perception (SSP), a study of the analysis among semantic parameters, the inter-aural-cross-correlation coefficient (IACC), A-weighted-equal sound-pressure-level (L(eq)), dynamic (D), and SSP is introduced to verify the independent effect of each parameter and to re-determine some of their possible relationships. The results show that the more noisiness the audience perceived, the worse spatial awareness they received, while the closer and more directional the sound source image variations, dynamics, and numbers of sound sources in the soundscape are, the better the spatial awareness would be. Thus, the sensations of roughness, sound intensity, transient dynamic, and the values of Leq and IACC have a suitable range for better spatial perception. A better spatial awareness seems to promote the preference slightly for the audience. Finally, setting SSPs as functions of the semantic parameters and Leq-D-IACC, two linear multivariate evaluation models of subjective spatial perception are proposed.

Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong

2017-11-28

Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

China’s Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qilong Cao

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China’s economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods: Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM2.5. Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results: It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions: Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables.

China’s Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-01-01

Background: Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China’s economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods: Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM2.5. Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results: It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions: Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables. PMID:28927016

Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plejdrup, M.S.; Gyldenkaerne, S.

2011-04-15

The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

Data Field Modeling and Spectral-Spatial Feature Fusion for Hyperspectral Data Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Da; Li, Jianxun

2016-12-16

Classification is a significant subject in hyperspectral remote sensing image processing. This study proposes a spectral-spatial feature fusion algorithm for the classification of hyperspectral images (HSI). Unlike existing spectral-spatial classification methods, the influences and interactions of the surroundings on each measured pixel were taken into consideration in this paper. Data field theory was employed as the mathematical realization of the field theory concept in physics, and both the spectral and spatial domains of HSI were considered as data fields. Therefore, the inherent dependency of interacting pixels was modeled. Using data field modeling, spatial and spectral features were transformed into a unified radiation form and further fused into a new feature by using a linear model. In contrast to the current spectral-spatial classification methods, which usually simply stack spectral and spatial features together, the proposed method builds the inner connection between the spectral and spatial features, and explores the hidden information that contributed to classification. Therefore, new information is included for classification. The final classification result was obtained using a random forest (RF) classifier. The proposed method was tested with the University of Pavia and Indian Pines, two well-known standard hyperspectral datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has higher classification accuracies than those obtained by the traditional approaches.

Spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya with spatially varying coefficients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elphas Okango

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease mapping has become popular in the field of statistics as a method to explain the spatial distribution of disease outcomes and as a tool to help design targeted intervention strategies. Most of these models however have been implemented with assumptions that may be limiting or altogether lead to less meaningful results and hence interpretations. Some of these assumptions include the linearity, stationarity and normality assumptions. Studies have shown that the linearity assumption is not necessarily true for all covariates. Age for example has been found to have a non-linear relationship with HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Other studies have made stationarity assumption in that one stimulus e.g. education, provokes the same response in all the regions under study and this is also quite restrictive. Responses to stimuli may vary from region to region due to aspects like culture, preferences and attitudes. Methods We perform a spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya, while relaxing these assumptions i.e. the linearity assumption by allowing the covariate age to have a non-linear effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence using the random walk model of order 2 and the stationarity assumption by allowing the rest of the covariates to vary spatially using the conditional autoregressive model. The women data used in this study were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS indicator survey where women aged 15–49 years were surveyed. A full Bayesian approach was used and the models were implemented in R-INLA software. Results Age was found to have a non-linear relationship with both HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and the spatially varying coefficient model provided a significantly better fit for HSV-2. Age-at first sex also had a greater effect on HSV-2 prevalence in the Coastal and some parts of North Eastern regions suggesting either early marriages or child prostitution. The effect of education on HIV prevalence among women was more

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

Spatial Models of Prebiotic Evolution: Soup Before Pizza?

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuring, István; Czárán, Tamás; Szabó, Péter; Károlyi, György; Toroczkai, Zoltán

2003-10-01

The problem of information integration and resistance to the invasion of parasitic mutants in prebiotic replicator systems is a notorious issue of research on the origin of life. Almost all theoretical studies published so far have demonstrated that some kind of spatial structure is indispensable for the persistence and/or the parasite resistance of any feasible replicator system. Based on a detailed critical survey of spatial models on prebiotic information integration, we suggest a possible scenario for replicator system evolution leading to the emergence of the first protocells capable of independent life. We show that even the spatial versions of the hypercycle model are vulnerable to selfish parasites in heterogeneous habitats. Contrary, the metabolic system remains persistent and coexistent with its parasites both on heterogeneous surfaces and in chaotically mixing flowing media. Persistent metabolic parasites can be converted to metabolic cooperators, or they can gradually obtain replicase activity. Our simulations show that, once replicase activity emerged, a gradual and simultaneous evolutionary improvement of replicase functionality (speed and fidelity) and template efficiency is possible only on a surface that constrains the mobility of macromolecule replicators. Based on the results of the models reviewed, we suggest that open chaotic flows (`soup') and surface dynamics (`pizza') both played key roles in the sequence of evolutionary events ultimately concluding in the appearance of the first living cell on Earth.

An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Panduro, Toke Emil

2015-01-01

Omitted, misspecified, or mismeasured spatially varying characteristics are a cause for concern in hedonic house price models. Spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects have become popular ways of addressing these concerns. We discuss the limitations of standard spatial approaches to hedonic...

Application of Spatial Regression Models to Income Poverty Ratios in Middle Delta Contiguous Counties in Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sohair F Higazi

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Regression analysis depends on several assumptions that have to be satisfied. A major assumption that is never satisfied when variables are from contiguous observations is the independence of error terms. Spatial analysis treated the violation of that assumption by two derived models that put contiguity of observations into consideration. Data used are from Egypt's 2006 latest census, for 93 counties in middle delta seven adjacent Governorates. The dependent variable used is the percent of individuals classified as poor (those who make less than 1$ daily. Predictors are some demographic indicators. Explanatory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA is performed to examine the existence of spatial clustering and spatial autocorrelation between neighboring counties. The ESDA revealed spatial clusters and spatial correlation between locations. Three statistical models are applied to the data, the Ordinary Least Square regression model (OLS, the Spatial Error Model (SEM and the Spatial Lag Model (SLM.The Likelihood Ratio test and some information criterions are used to compare SLM and SEM to OLS. The SEM model proved to be better than the SLM model. Recommendations are drawn regarding the two spatial models used.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Predicting the Overall Spatial Quality of Automotive Audio Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Koya, Daisuke

The spatial quality of automotive audio systems is often compromised due to their unideal listening environments. Automotive audio systems need to be developed quickly due to industry demands. A suitable perceptual model could evaluate the spatial quality of automotive audio systems with similar reliability to formal listening tests but take less time. Such a model is developed in this research project by adapting an existing model of spatial quality for automotive audio use. The requirements for the adaptation were investigated in a literature review. A perceptual model called QESTRAL was reviewed, which predicts the overall spatial quality of domestic multichannel audio systems. It was determined that automotive audio systems are likely to be impaired in terms of the spatial attributes that were not considered in developing the QESTRAL model, but metrics are available that might predict these attributes. To establish whether the QESTRAL model in its current form can accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems, MUSHRA listening tests using headphone auralisation with head tracking were conducted to collect results to be compared against predictions by the model. Based on guideline criteria, the model in its current form could not accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems. To improve prediction performance, the QESTRAL model was recalibrated and modified using existing metrics of the model, those that were proposed from the literature review, and newly developed metrics. The most important metrics for predicting the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems included those that were interaural cross-correlation (IACC) based, relate to localisation of the frontal audio scene, and account for the perceived scene width in front of the listener. Modifying the model for automotive audio systems did not invalidate its use for domestic audio systems. The resulting model predicts the overall spatial

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W Redding

Full Text Available Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT, to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA, when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

2017-01-01

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun

2008-01-01

Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

2014-01-01

Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

Spatial-temporal data model and fractal analysis of transportation network in GIS environment

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yongjiu; Tong, Xiaohua; Li, Yangdong

2008-10-01

How to organize transportation data characterized by multi-time, multi-scale, multi-resolution and multi-source is one of the fundamental problems of GIS-T development. A spatial-temporal data model for GIS-T is proposed based on Spatial-temporal- Object Model. Transportation network data is systemically managed using dynamic segmentation technologies. And then a spatial-temporal database is built to integrally store geographical data of multi-time for transportation. Based on the spatial-temporal database, functions of spatial analysis of GIS-T are substantively extended. Fractal module is developed to improve the analyzing in intensity, density, structure and connectivity of transportation network based on the validation and evaluation of topologic relation. Integrated fractal with GIS-T strengthens the functions of spatial analysis and enriches the approaches of data mining and knowledge discovery of transportation network. Finally, the feasibility of the model and methods are tested thorough Guangdong Geographical Information Platform for Highway Project.

Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guoping Huang

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Broms, Kristin M; Johnson, Devin S; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday L

2014-03-01

Determining the range of a species and exploring species--habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence--absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus, positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern Ground Hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence--absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range, but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order, of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

Computer Games versus Maps before Reading Stories: Priming Readers' Spatial Situation Models

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Glenn Gordon; Majchrzak, Dan; Hayes, Shelley; Drobisz, Jack

2011-01-01

The current study investigated how computer games and maps compare as preparation for readers to comprehend and retain spatial relations in text narratives. Readers create situation models of five dimensions: spatial, temporal, causal, goal, and protagonist (Zwaan, Langston, & Graesser 1995). Of these five, readers mentally model the spatial…

How to get rid of W: a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Folmer, H.; Oud, J.

2008-01-01

In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

How to get rid of W : a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Folmer, Henk; Oud, Johan

2008-01-01

In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

Research on spatial Model and analysis algorithm for nuclear weapons' damage effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiaohong; Meng Tao; Du Maohua; Wang Weili; Ji Wanfeng

2011-01-01

In order to realize the three dimension visualization of nuclear weapons' damage effects. Aiming at the characteristics of the damage effects data, a new model-MRPCT model is proposed, and this model can carry out the modeling of the three dimension spatial data of the nuclear weapons' damage effects. For the sake of saving on the memory, linear coding method is used to store the MRPCT model. On the basis of Morton code, spatial analysis of the damage effects is completed. (authors)

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Jin Woo

Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

Modeling spatial invasion of Ebola in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Silva, Jeremy P; Eisenberg, Marisa C

2017-09-07

The 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. To understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of EVD in West Africa, we developed spatial transmission models using a gravity-model framework at both the national and district-level scales, which we used to compare effectiveness of local interventions (e.g. local quarantine) and long-range interventions (e.g. border-closures). The country-level gravity model captures the epidemic data, including multiple waves of initial epidemic growth observed in Guinea. We found that local-transmission reductions were most effective in Liberia, while long-range transmission was dominant in Sierra Leone. Both models illustrated that interventions in one region result in an amplified protective effect on other regions by preventing spatial transmission. In the district-level model, interventions in the strongest of these amplifying regions reduced total cases in all three countries by over 20%, in spite of the region itself generating only ∼0.1% of total cases. This model structure and associated intervention analysis provide information that can be used by public health policymakers to assist planning and response efforts for future epidemics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

2007-01-01

Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

Evaluating water erosion prediction project model using Cesium-137-derived spatial soil redistribution data

Science.gov (United States)

The lack of spatial soil erosion data has been a major constraint on the refinement and application of physically based erosion models. Spatially distributed models can only be thoroughly validated with distributed erosion data. The fallout cesium-137 has been widely used to generate spatial soil re...

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

2016-12-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.

Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia

2016-02-27

The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images.

Modeling mental spatial reasoning about cardinal directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultheis, Holger; Bertel, Sven; Barkowsky, Thomas

2014-01-01

This article presents research into human mental spatial reasoning with orientation knowledge. In particular, we look at reasoning problems about cardinal directions that possess multiple valid solutions (i.e., are spatially underdetermined), at human preferences for some of these solutions, and at representational and procedural factors that lead to such preferences. The article presents, first, a discussion of existing, related conceptual and computational approaches; second, results of empirical research into the solution preferences that human reasoners actually have; and, third, a novel computational model that relies on a parsimonious and flexible spatio-analogical knowledge representation structure to robustly reproduce the behavior observed with human reasoners. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Numerical Simulation of a Grinding Process Model for the Spatial Work-pieces: Development of Modeling Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Voronov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents a literature review in simulation of grinding processes. It takes into consideration the statistical, energy based, and imitation approaches to simulation of grinding forces. Main stages of interaction between abrasive grains and machined surface are shown. The article describes main approaches to the geometry modeling of forming new surfaces when grinding. The review of approaches to the chip and pile up effect numerical modeling is shown. Advantages and disadvantages of grain-to-surface interaction by means of finite element method and molecular dynamics method are considered. The article points out that it is necessary to take into consideration the system dynamics and its effect on the finished surface. Structure of the complex imitation model of grinding process dynamics for flexible work-pieces with spatial surface geometry is proposed from the literature review. The proposed model of spatial grinding includes the model of work-piece dynamics, model of grinding wheel dynamics, phenomenological model of grinding forces based on 3D geometry modeling algorithm. Model gives the following results for spatial grinding process: vibration of machining part and grinding wheel, machined surface geometry, static deflection of the surface and grinding forces under various cutting conditions.

Modelling the effects of spatial variability on radionuclide migration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

The NEA workshop reflect the present status in national waste management program, specifically in spatial variability and performance assessment of geologic disposal sites for deed repository system the four sessions were: Spatial Variability: Its Definition and Significance to Performance Assessment and Site Characterisation; Experience with the Modelling of Radionuclide Migration in the Presence of Spatial Variability in Various Geological Environments; New Areas for Investigation: Two Personal Views; What is Wanted and What is Feasible: Views and Future Plans in Selected Waste Management Organisations. The 26 papers presented on the four oral sessions and on the poster session have been abstracted and indexed individually for the INIS database. (R.P.)

Spatial Impairment and Memory in Genetic Disorders: Insights from Mouse Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Ah Lee

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Research across the cognitive and brain sciences has begun to elucidate some of the processes that guide navigation and spatial memory. Boundary geometry and featural landmarks are two distinct classes of environmental cues that have dissociable neural correlates in spatial representation and follow different patterns of learning. Consequently, spatial navigation depends both on the type of cue available and on the type of learning provided. We investigated this interaction between spatial representation and memory by administering two different tasks (working memory, reference memory using two different environmental cues (rectangular geometry, striped landmark in mouse models of human genetic disorders: Prader-Willi syndrome (PWScrm+/p− mice, n = 12 and Beta-catenin mutation (Thr653Lys-substituted mice, n = 12. This exploratory study provides suggestive evidence that these models exhibit different abilities and impairments in navigating by boundary geometry and featural landmarks, depending on the type of memory task administered. We discuss these data in light of the specific deficits in cognitive and brain function in these human syndromes and their animal model counterparts.

Relating structural growth environment to white spruce sapling establishment at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone

Science.gov (United States)

Maguire, A.; Boelman, N.; Griffin, K. L.; Jensen, J.; Hiers, E.; Johnson, D. M.; Vierling, L. A.; Eitel, J.

2017-12-01

The effect of climate change on treeline position at the latitudinal Forest-Tundra ecotone (FTE) is poorly understood. While the FTE is expansive (stretching 13,000 km acros the panarctic), understanding relationships between climate and tree function may depend on very fine scale processes. High resolution tools are therefore needed to appropriately characterize the leading (northernmost) edge of the FTE. We hypothesized that microstructural metrics obtainable from lidar remote sensing may explain variation in the physical growth environment that governs sapling establishment. To test our hypothesis, we used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to collect highly spatially resolved 3-D structural information of white spruce (Picea glauca) saplings and their aboveground growth environment at the leading edge of a FTE in northern Alaska and Northwest Territories, Canada. Coordinates of sapling locations were extracted from the 3-D TLS data. Within each sampling plot, 20 sets of coordinates were randomly selected from regions where no saplings were present. Ground roughness, canopy roughness, average aspect, average slope, average curvature, wind shelter index, and wetness indexwere extracted from point clouds within a variable radius from all coordinates. Generalized linear models (GLM) were fit to determine which microstructural metrics were most strongly associated with sapling establishment. Preliminary analyses of three plots suggest that vegetation roughness, wetness index, ground roughness, and slope were the most important terrain metrics governing sapling presence (Figure 1). Comprehensive analyses will include eight plots and GLMs optimized for scale at which structural parameters affect sapling establishment. Spatial autocorrelation of sample locations will be accounted for in models. Because these analyses address how the physical growth environment affects sapling establishment, model outputs will provide information for improving understanding of the

A Spatial Data Model Desing For The Management Of Agricultural Data (Farmer, Agricultural Land And Agricultural Production)

Science.gov (United States)

Taşkanat, Talha; İbrahim İnan, Halil

2016-04-01

Since the beginning of the 2000s, it has been conducted many projects such as Agricultural Sector Integrated Management Information System, Agriculture Information System, Agricultural Production Registry System and Farmer Registry System by the Turkish Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock and the Turkish Statistical Institute in order to establish and manage better agricultural policy and produce better agricultural statistics in Turkey. Yet, it has not been carried out any study for the structuring of a system which can meet the requirements of different institutions and organizations that need similar agricultural data. It has been tried to meet required data only within the frame of the legal regulations from present systems. Whereas the developments in GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and standardization, and Turkey National GIS enterprise in this context necessitate to meet the demands of organizations that use the similar data commonly and to act in terms of a data model logic. In this study, 38 institutions or organization which produce and use agricultural data were detected, that and thanks to survey and interviews undertaken, their needs were tried to be determined. In this study which is financially supported by TUBITAK, it was worked out relationship between farmer, agricultural land and agricultural production data and all of the institutions and organizations in Turkey and in this context, it was worked upon the best detailed and effective possible data model. In the model design, UML which provides object-oriented design was used. In the data model, for the management of spatial data, sub-parcel data model was used. Thanks to this data model, declared and undeclared areas can be detected spatially, and thus declarations can be associated to sub-parcels. Within this framework, it will be able to developed agricultural policies as a result of acquiring more extensive, accurate, spatially manageable and easily updatable farmer and

The importance of spatial models for estimating the strength of density dependence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorson, James T.; Skaug, Hans J.; Kristensen, Kasper

2014-01-01

the California Coast. In this case, the nonspatial model estimates implausible oscillatory dynamics on an annual time scale, while the spatial model estimates strong autocorrelation and is supported by model selection tools. We conclude by discussing the importance of improved data archiving techniques, so...... that spatial models can be used to re-examine classic questions regarding the presence and strength of density dependence in wild populations Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-0739.1...

A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

Science.gov (United States)

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating

Spatial autocorrelation method using AR model; Kukan jiko sokanho eno AR model no tekiyo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamamoto, H; Obuchi, T; Saito, T [Iwate University, Iwate (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1996-05-01

Examination was made about the applicability of the AR model to the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) method, which analyzes the surface wave phase velocity in a microtremor, for the estimation of the underground structure. In this examination, microtremor data recorded in Morioka City, Iwate Prefecture, was used. In the SAC method, a spatial autocorrelation function with the frequency as a variable is determined from microtremor data observed by circular arrays. Then, the Bessel function is adapted to the spatial autocorrelation coefficient with the distance between seismographs as a variable for the determination of the phase velocity. The result of the AR model application in this study and the results of the conventional BPF and FFT method were compared. It was then found that the phase velocities obtained by the BPF and FFT methods were more dispersed than the same obtained by the AR model. The dispersion in the BPF method is attributed to the bandwidth used in the band-pass filter and, in the FFT method, to the impact of the bandwidth on the smoothing of the cross spectrum. 2 refs., 7 figs.

Spatial Welfare Economics versus Ecological Footprint: Modeling Agglomeration, Externalities and Trade

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grazi, F.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Rietveld, P.

2007-01-01

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Zuwei

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuwei Yu

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward M. Hill

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for

Spatial Interpretation of Tower, Chamber and Modelled Terrestrial Fluxes in a Tropical Forest Plantation

Science.gov (United States)

Whidden, E.; Roulet, N.

2003-04-01

Interpretation of a site average terrestrial flux may be complicated in the presence of inhomogeneities. Inhomogeneity may invalidate the basic assumptions of aerodynamic flux measurement. Chamber measurement may miss or misinterpret important temporal or spatial anomalies. Models may smooth over important nonlinearities depending on the scale of application. Although inhomogeneity is usually seen as a design problem, many sites have spatial variance that may have a large impact on net flux, and in many cases a large homogeneous surface is unrealistic. The sensitivity and validity of a site average flux are investigated in the presence of an inhomogeneous site. Directional differences are used to evaluate the validity of aerodynamic methods and the computation of a site average tower flux. Empirical and modelling methods are used to interpret the spatial controls on flux. An ecosystem model, Ecosys, is used to assess spatial length scales appropriate to the ecophysiologic controls. A diffusion model is used to compare tower, chamber, and model data, by spatially weighting contributions within the tower footprint. Diffusion model weighting is also used to improve tower flux estimates by producing footprint averaged ecological parameters (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.). Although uncertainty remains in the validity of measurement methods and the accuracy of diffusion models, a detailed spatial interpretation is required at an inhomogeneous site. Flux estimation between methods improves with spatial interpretation, showing the importance to an estimation of a site average flux. Small-scale temporal and spatial anomalies may be relatively unimportant to overall flux, but accounting for medium-scale differences in ecophysiological controls is necessary. A combination of measurements and modelling can be used to define the appropriate time and length scales of significant non-linearity due to inhomogeneity.

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Marie Aerts

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wonmongo Lacina Soro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004–2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.

Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, M.; Katzfuss, M.; Hu, J.; Johnson, V. E.

2014-01-01

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, M.

2014-09-16

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

Comparative analysis of elements and models of implementation in local-level spatial plans in Serbia

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Stefanović Nebojša

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Implementation of local-level spatial plans is of paramount importance to the development of the local community. This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of and offer further directions for research into the implementation of spatial plans by presenting the results of a study on models of implementation. The paper describes the basic theoretical postulates of a model for implementing spatial plans. A comparative analysis of the application of elements and models of implementation of plans in practice was conducted based on the spatial plans for the local municipalities of Arilje, Lazarevac and Sremska Mitrovica. The analysis includes four models of implementation: the strategy and policy of spatial development; spatial protection; the implementation of planning solutions of a technical nature; and the implementation of rules of use, arrangement and construction of spaces. The main results of the analysis are presented and used to give recommendations for improving the elements and models of implementation. Final deliberations show that models of implementation are generally used in practice and combined in spatial plans. Based on the analysis of how models of implementation are applied in practice, a general conclusion concerning the complex character of the local level of planning is presented and elaborated. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. TR 36035: Spatial, Environmental, Energy and Social Aspects of Developing Settlements and Climate Change - Mutual Impacts and Grant no. III 47014: The Role and Implementation of the National Spatial Plan and Regional Development Documents in Renewal of Strategic Research, Thinking and Governance in Serbia

Quantifying measurement uncertainty and spatial variability in the context of model evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Choukulkar, A.; Brewer, A.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Bonin, T.; Banta, R. M.; Sandberg, S.; Weickmann, A. M.; Djalalova, I.; McCaffrey, K.; Bianco, L.; Wilczak, J. M.; Newman, J. F.; Draxl, C.; Lundquist, J. K.; Wharton, S.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Marquis, M.

2017-12-01

In an effort to improve wind forecasts for the wind energy sector, the Department of Energy and the NOAA funded the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). As part of the WFIP2 field campaign, a large suite of in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation was deployed to the Columbia River Gorge in Oregon and Washington from October 2015 - March 2017. The array of instrumentation deployed included 915-MHz wind profiling radars, sodars, wind- profiling lidars, and scanning lidars. The role of these instruments was to provide wind measurements at high spatial and temporal resolution for model evaluation and improvement of model physics. To properly determine model errors, the uncertainties in instrument-model comparisons need to be quantified accurately. These uncertainties arise from several factors such as measurement uncertainty, spatial variability, and interpolation of model output to instrument locations, to name a few. In this presentation, we will introduce a formalism to quantify measurement uncertainty and spatial variability. The accuracy of this formalism will be tested using existing datasets such as the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) campaign. Finally, the uncertainties in wind measurement and the spatial variability estimates from the WFIP2 field campaign will be discussed to understand the challenges involved in model evaluation.

Rabbit models of cerebral vasospasm established with endovascular puncture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tu Jianfei; Liu Yizhi; Ji Jiansong; Zhao Zhongwei

2008-01-01

Objective: To investigate the method of endovascular puncture to establish rabbit models of cerebral vasospasm. Methods: New Zealand white rabbits were divided into 5 groups (12 h, 1 d, 2 d, 3 d and 7 d) randomly, and each group was separated into subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) subgroup (n=5) and control subgroup (n=2). cerebral vascular spasm (CVS) models were established after SAH with endovascular puncture. CT scans before and after operation were performed. The internal diameters and the wall thicknesses of posterior communicans artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) were measured with HE stain after the animals were executed. Results: CVS model was successfully eastblished in 35 rabbits (SAH subgroup 25, control subgroup 10), resulting a successful rate of 48.61%. Compared with control subgroup, PcoA and BA showed shrinkage of internal diameters of 43.60% and 51.82% 12 h after SAH, respectively, and the shrinkage appeared as biphasic patterns until the 7th study day with another peaks of 29.32% and 45.19%, respectively. Conclusions: Endovascular puncture is an effective method to establish rabbit of CVS. The death rate of animals can be decreased with the asage of new interventional material and perfection for the details of operation. (authors)

Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

2006-01-01

Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Els Ducheyne

2015-03-01

Full Text Available A harmonized sampling approach in combination with spatial modelling is required to update current knowledge of fasciolosis in dairy cattle in Europe. Within the scope of the EU project GLOWORM, samples from 3,359 randomly selected farms in 849 municipalities in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Poland and Sweden were collected and their infection status assessed using an indirect bulk tank milk (BTM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Dairy farms were considered exposed when the optical density ratio (ODR exceeded the 0.3 cut-off. Two ensemble-modelling techniques, Random Forests (RF and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT, were used to obtain the spatial distribution of the probability of exposure to Fasciola hepatica using remotely sensed environmental variables (1-km spatial resolution and interpolated values from meteorological stations as predictors. The median ODRs amounted to 0.31, 0.12, 0.54, 0.25 and 0.44 for Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Poland and southern Sweden, respectively. Using the 0.3 threshold, 571 municipalities were categorized as positive and 429 as negative. RF was seen as capable of predicting the spatial distribution of exposure with an area under the receiver operation characteristic (ROC curve (AUC of 0.83 (0.96 for BRT. Both models identified rainfall and temperature as the most important factors for probability of exposure. Areas of high and low exposure were identified by both models, with BRT better at discriminating between low-probability and high-probability exposure; this model may therefore be more useful in practise. Given a harmonized sampling strategy, it should be possible to generate robust spatial models for fasciolosis in dairy cattle in Europe to be used as input for temporal models and for the detection of deviations in baseline probability. Further research is required for model output in areas outside the eco-climatic range investigated.

Spatial Competition with Entry Deterrence considering Horizontal Product Differentiations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ai-nong Zhou

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Spatial competition plays important roles in economics, which attracts extensive research. This paper addresses spatial competitions along with horizontal product differentiations and entry deterrence. By the dynamic game theory model about one firm and a potential entrant with different cost in a linear city, this paper finds that both the higher fixed setup cost and the higher transportation cost deter entrants. To efficiently deter the entrants, the establisher is inclined to locating at the middle point of the linear city.

Spatial forecast of landslides in three gorges based on spatial data mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xianmin; Niu, Ruiqing

2009-01-01

The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc). China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers) images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County) in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

Science.gov (United States)

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

Science.gov (United States)

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Design of spatial experiments: Model fitting and prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fedorov, V.V.

1996-03-01

The main objective of the paper is to describe and develop model oriented methods and algorithms for the design of spatial experiments. Unlike many other publications in this area, the approach proposed here is essentially based on the ideas of convex design theory.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variational approach for spatial point process intensity estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coeurjolly, Jean-Francois; Møller, Jesper

is assumed to be of log-linear form β+θ⊤z(u) where z is a spatial covariate function and the focus is on estimating θ. The variational estimator is very simple to implement and quicker than alternative estimation procedures. We establish its strong consistency and asymptotic normality. We also discuss its...... finite-sample properties in comparison with the maximum first order composite likelihood estimator when considering various inhomogeneous spatial point process models and dimensions as well as settings were z is completely or only partially known....

Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with nitrogen transport to study the spatial variation of carbon stocks and fluxes in a Critical Zone Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; He, Y.; Davis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Most current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve topographically driven land surface heterogeneity (e.g., lateral water flow, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation) or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest biogeochemical model with nitrogen transport, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, and adding an advection dominated nitrogen transport module. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model, and is augmented by adding a topographic solar radiation module. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while nitrogen is transported among model grids via surface and subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with spatially-distributed leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory. The model-predicted aboveground vegetation carbon and soil carbon distributions generally agree with the macro patterns observed within the watershed. The importance of abiotic variables (including soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and soil mineral nitrogen) in predicting aboveground carbon distribution is calculated using a random forest. The result suggests that the spatial pattern of aboveground carbon is controlled by the distribution of soil mineral nitrogen. A Flux-PIHM-BGC simulation

Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

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Christian Vögeli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applicationssuch as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power.To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed,physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolationsof observations from automatic weather stations (AWS, leading to errors in the spatial distributionof atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snowdepth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snowdepth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on AirborneDigital Sensors (ADS, are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve theaccuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method toscale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scalingmethod is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation,with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase.It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly forthe simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up toa factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reducedwhen using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, themodel performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from adifferent winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complexprocesses such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches,can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; Mai, Juliane; Mendiguren Gonzalez, Gorka

2018-01-01

Satellite-based earth observations offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatial-pattern-oriented model evaluations. In this study, observed spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET) are utilised for spatial model calibration tailored to target...... and potential evapotranspiration correction parameterisations, based on soil type and vegetation density. These parameterisations are utilised as they are most relevant for simulated AET patterns from the hydrologic model. Due to the fundamental challenges encountered when evaluating spatial pattern performance...

Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Frank W.; Sweet, Lynn C.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Franklin, Janet; McCullough, Ian M.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dingman, John; Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Hannah, Lee; Redmond, Kelly; Moritz, Max A.

2016-01-01

Seedling establishment is a critical step that may ultimately govern tree species’ distribution shifts under environmental change. Annual variation in the location of seed rain and microclimates results in transient “windows of opportunity” for tree seedling establishment across the landscape. These establishment windows vary at fine spatiotemporal scales that are not considered in most assessments of climate change impacts on tree species range dynamics and habitat displacement. We integrate field seedling establishment trials conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada and western Tehachapi Mountains of southern California with spatially downscaled grids of modeled water-year climatic water deficit (CWDwy) and mean August maximum daily temperature (Tmax) to map historical and projected future microclimates suitable for establishment windows of opportunity for Quercus douglasii, a dominant tree species of warm, dry foothill woodlands, and Q. kelloggii, a dominant of cooler, more mesic montane woodlands and forests. Based on quasi-binomial regression models, Q. douglasii seedling establishment is significantly associated with modeled CWDwy and to a lesser degree with modeled Tmax. Q. kelloggii seedling establishment is most strongly associated with Tmax and best predicted by a two-factor model including CWDwy and Tmax. Establishment niche models are applied to explore recruitment window dynamics in the western Tehachapi Mountains, where these species are currently widespread canopy dominants. Establishment windows are projected to decrease by 50–95%, shrinking locally to higher elevations and north-facing slopes by the end of this century depending on the species and climate scenario. These decreases in establishment windows suggest the potential for longer-term regional population declines of the species. While many additional processes regulate seedling establishment and growth, this study highlights the need to account for topoclimatic controls and

Supplementary Material for: Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

KAUST Repository

Krupskii, Pavel; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2016-01-01

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

Database modeling to integrate macrobenthos data in Spatial Data Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Alberto Quintanilha

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Coastal zones are complex areas that include marine and terrestrial environments. Besides its huge environmental wealth, they also attracts humans because provides food, recreation, business, and transportation, among others. Some difficulties to manage these areas are related with their complexity, diversity of interests and the absence of standardization to collect and share data to scientific community, public agencies, among others. The idea to organize, standardize and share this information based on Web Atlas is essential to support planning and decision making issues. The construction of a spatial database integrating the environmental business, to be used on Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI is illustrated by a bioindicator that indicates the quality of the sediments. The models show the phases required to build Macrobenthos spatial database based on Santos Metropolitan Region as a reference. It is concluded that, when working with environmental data the structuring of knowledge in a conceptual model is essential for their subsequent integration into the SDI. During the modeling process it can be noticed that methodological issues related to the collection process may obstruct or prejudice the integration of data from different studies of the same area. The development of a database model, as presented in this study, can be used as a reference for further research with similar goals.

Chaotic and stable perturbed maps: 2-cycles and spatial models

Science.gov (United States)

Braverman, E.; Haroutunian, J.

2010-06-01

As the growth rate parameter increases in the Ricker, logistic and some other maps, the models exhibit an irreversible period doubling route to chaos. If a constant positive perturbation is introduced, then the Ricker model (but not the classical logistic map) experiences period doubling reversals; the break of chaos finally gives birth to a stable two-cycle. We outline the maps which demonstrate a similar behavior and also study relevant discrete spatial models where the value in each cell at the next step is defined only by the values at the cell and its nearest neighbors. The stable 2-cycle in a scalar map does not necessarily imply 2-cyclic-type behavior in each cell for the spatial generalization of the map.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

Thinking Egyptian: Active Models for Understanding Spatial Representation.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiferl, Ellen

This paper highlights how introductory textbooks on Egyptian art inhibit understanding by reinforcing student preconceptions, and demonstrates another approach to discussing space with a classroom exercise and software. The alternative approach, an active model for spatial representation, introduced here was developed by adapting classroom…

Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

Science.gov (United States)

Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

Spatial downscaling of soil prediction models based on weighted generalized additive models in smallholder farm settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P; Nair, Vimala D

2017-09-11

Digital soil mapping (DSM) is gaining momentum as a technique to help smallholder farmers secure soil security and food security in developing regions. However, communications of the digital soil mapping information between diverse audiences become problematic due to the inconsistent scale of DSM information. Spatial downscaling can make use of accessible soil information at relatively coarse spatial resolution to provide valuable soil information at relatively fine spatial resolution. The objective of this research was to disaggregate the coarse spatial resolution soil exchangeable potassium (K ex ) and soil total nitrogen (TN) base map into fine spatial resolution soil downscaled map using weighted generalized additive models (GAMs) in two smallholder villages in South India. By incorporating fine spatial resolution spectral indices in the downscaling process, the soil downscaled maps not only conserve the spatial information of coarse spatial resolution soil maps but also depict the spatial details of soil properties at fine spatial resolution. The results of this study demonstrated difference between the fine spatial resolution downscaled maps and fine spatial resolution base maps is smaller than the difference between coarse spatial resolution base maps and fine spatial resolution base maps. The appropriate and economical strategy to promote the DSM technique in smallholder farms is to develop the relatively coarse spatial resolution soil prediction maps or utilize available coarse spatial resolution soil maps at the regional scale and to disaggregate these maps to the fine spatial resolution downscaled soil maps at farm scale.

Pair and triplet approximation of a spatial lattice population model with multiscale dispersal using Markov chains for estimating spatial autocorrelation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiebeler, David E; Millett, Nicholas E

2011-06-21

We investigate a spatial lattice model of a population employing dispersal to nearest and second-nearest neighbors, as well as long-distance dispersal across the landscape. The model is studied via stochastic spatial simulations, ordinary pair approximation, and triplet approximation. The latter method, which uses the probabilities of state configurations of contiguous blocks of three sites as its state variables, is demonstrated to be greatly superior to pair approximations for estimating spatial correlation information at various scales. Correlations between pairs of sites separated by arbitrary distances are estimated by constructing spatial Markov processes using the information from both approximations. These correlations demonstrate why pair approximation misses basic qualitative features of the model, such as decreasing population density as a large proportion of offspring are dropped on second-nearest neighbors, and why triplet approximation is able to include them. Analytical and numerical results show that, excluding long-distance dispersal, the initial growth rate of an invading population is maximized and the equilibrium population density is also roughly maximized when the population spreads its offspring evenly over nearest and second-nearest neighboring sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D’Aubigny Gérard

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP, valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis.

Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model

Science.gov (United States)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; Mai, Juliane; Mendiguren, Gorka; Koch, Julian; Samaniego, Luis; Stisen, Simon

2018-02-01

Satellite-based earth observations offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatial-pattern-oriented model evaluations. In this study, observed spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET) are utilised for spatial model calibration tailored to target the pattern performance of the model. The proposed calibration framework combines temporally aggregated observed spatial patterns with a new spatial performance metric and a flexible spatial parameterisation scheme. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) is used to simulate streamflow and AET and has been selected due to its soil parameter distribution approach based on pedo-transfer functions and the build in multi-scale parameter regionalisation. In addition two new spatial parameter distribution options have been incorporated in the model in order to increase the flexibility of root fraction coefficient and potential evapotranspiration correction parameterisations, based on soil type and vegetation density. These parameterisations are utilised as they are most relevant for simulated AET patterns from the hydrologic model. Due to the fundamental challenges encountered when evaluating spatial pattern performance using standard metrics, we developed a simple but highly discriminative spatial metric, i.e. one comprised of three easily interpretable components measuring co-location, variation and distribution of the spatial data. The study shows that with flexible spatial model parameterisation used in combination with the appropriate objective functions, the simulated spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration become substantially more similar to the satellite-based estimates. Overall 26 parameters are identified for calibration through a sequential screening approach based on a combination of streamflow and spatial pattern metrics. The robustness of the calibrations is tested using an ensemble of nine calibrations based on different seed numbers using the shuffled complex

A study on spatial decision support systems for HIV/AIDS prevention based on COM GIS technology

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Kun; Luo, Huasong; Peng, Shungyun; Xu, Quanli

2007-06-01

Based on the deeply analysis of the current status and the existing problems of GIS technology applications in Epidemiology, this paper has proposed the method and process for establishing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention by integrating the COM GIS, Spatial Database, GPS, Remote Sensing, and Communication technologies, as well as ASP and ActiveX software development technologies. One of the most important issues for constructing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention is how to integrate the AIDS spreading models with GIS. The capabilities of GIS applications in the AIDS epidemic prevention have been described here in this paper firstly. Then some mature epidemic spreading models have also been discussed for extracting the computation parameters. Furthermore, a technical schema has been proposed for integrating the AIDS spreading models with GIS and relevant geospatial technologies, in which the GIS and model running platforms share a common spatial database and the computing results can be spatially visualized on Desktop or Web GIS clients. Finally, a complete solution for establishing the decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention has been offered in this paper based on the model integrating methods and ESRI COM GIS software packages. The general decision support systems are composed of data acquisition sub-systems, network communication sub-systems, model integrating sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial database sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information querying and statistical analysis sub-systems, AIDS epidemic dynamic surveillance sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial analysis and decision support sub-systems, as well as AIDS epidemic information publishing sub-systems based on Web GIS.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Spatial Temporal Modelling of Particulate Matter for Health Effects Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hamm, N. A. S.

2016-10-01

Epidemiological studies of the health effects of air pollution require estimation of individual exposure. It is not possible to obtain measurements at all relevant locations so it is necessary to predict at these space-time locations, either on the basis of dispersion from emission sources or by interpolating observations. This study used data obtained from a low-cost sensor network of 32 air quality monitoring stations in the Dutch city of Eindhoven, which make up the ILM (innovative air (quality) measurement system). These stations currently provide PM10 and PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 10 and 2.5 m in diameter), aggregated to hourly means. The data provide an unprecedented level of spatial and temporal detail for a city of this size. Despite these benefits the time series of measurements is characterized by missing values and noisy values. In this paper a space-time analysis is presented that is based on a dynamic model for the temporal component and a Gaussian process geostatistical for the spatial component. Spatial-temporal variability was dominated by the temporal component, although the spatial variability was also substantial. The model delivered accurate predictions for both isolated missing values and 24-hour periods of missing values (RMSE = 1.4 μg m-3 and 1.8 μg m-3 respectively). Outliers could be detected by comparison to the 95% prediction interval. The model shows promise for predicting missing values, outlier detection and for mapping to support health impact studies.

Analysis of the impact of immigration on labour market using spatial models

Science.gov (United States)

Polonyankina, Tatiana

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the impact of immigration on employment and unemployment of a host country. The question to answer is: How does employment/unemployment in the host country change after an increase in number of immigrants? The analysis is taking into account only legal immigrants in recession period. The model is combining classical regression of cross-sectional data with spatial econometrics models where cross-section dependencies are captured by a spatial matrix. The intention is by using spatial models analyse the sensitivity of employment/unemployment rate on change in a share of immigration in a region. The used panel data are based on the Labour force survey and on available macro data in Eurostat for 3 European countries (Germany, Austria and Czech Republic) grouped into cells by NUTS regions in a recession period.

APPLICATION OF SPATIAL MODELLING APPROACHES, SAMPLING STRATEGIES AND 3S TECHNOLOGY WITHIN AN ECOLGOCIAL FRAMWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.-C. Chen

2012-07-01

Full Text Available How to effectively describe ecological patterns in nature over broader spatial scales and build a modeling ecological framework has become an important issue in ecological research. We test four modeling methods (MAXENT, DOMAIN, GLM and ANN to predict the potential habitat of Schima superba (Chinese guger tree, CGT with different spatial scale in the Huisun study area in Taiwan. Then we created three sampling design (from small to large scales for model development and validation by different combinations of CGT samples from aforementioned three sites (Tong-Feng watershed, Yo-Shan Mountain, and Kuan-Dau watershed. These models combine points of known occurrence and topographic variables to infer CGT potential spatial distribution. Our assessment revealed that the method performance from highest to lowest was: MAXENT, DOMAIN, GLM and ANN on small spatial scale. The MAXENT and DOMAIN two models were the most capable for predicting the tree's potential habitat. However, the outcome clearly indicated that the models merely based on topographic variables performed poorly on large spatial extrapolation from Tong-Feng to Kuan-Dau because the humidity and sun illumination of the two watersheds are affected by their microterrains and are quite different from each other. Thus, the models developed from topographic variables can only be applied within a limited geographical extent without a significant error. Future studies will attempt to use variables involving spectral information associated with species extracted from high spatial, spectral resolution remotely sensed data, especially hyperspectral image data, for building a model so that it can be applied on a large spatial scale.

A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

Science.gov (United States)

Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

2007-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Single Canonical Model of Reflexive Memory and Spatial Attention

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Saumil S.; Red, Stuart; Lin, Eric; Sereno, Anne B.

2015-01-01

Many neurons in the dorsal and ventral visual stream have the property that after a brief visual stimulus presentation in their receptive field, the spiking activity in these neurons persists above their baseline levels for several seconds. This maintained activity is not always correlated with the monkey’s task and its origin is unknown. We have previously proposed a simple neural network model, based on shape selective neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex, which predicts the valence and time course of reflexive (bottom-up) spatial attention. In the same simple model, we demonstrate here that passive maintained activity or short-term memory of specific visual events can result without need for an external or top-down modulatory signal. Mutual inhibition and neuronal adaptation play distinct roles in reflexive attention and memory. This modest 4-cell model provides the first simple and unified physiologically plausible mechanism of reflexive spatial attention and passive short-term memory processes. PMID:26493949

Single Canonical Model of Reflexive Memory and Spatial Attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Saumil S; Red, Stuart; Lin, Eric; Sereno, Anne B

2015-10-23

Many neurons in the dorsal and ventral visual stream have the property that after a brief visual stimulus presentation in their receptive field, the spiking activity in these neurons persists above their baseline levels for several seconds. This maintained activity is not always correlated with the monkey's task and its origin is unknown. We have previously proposed a simple neural network model, based on shape selective neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex, which predicts the valence and time course of reflexive (bottom-up) spatial attention. In the same simple model, we demonstrate here that passive maintained activity or short-term memory of specific visual events can result without need for an external or top-down modulatory signal. Mutual inhibition and neuronal adaptation play distinct roles in reflexive attention and memory. This modest 4-cell model provides the first simple and unified physiologically plausible mechanism of reflexive spatial attention and passive short-term memory processes.

A multi-scale spatial model of hepatitis-B viral dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quentin Cangelosi

Full Text Available Chronic hepatitis B viral infection (HBV afflicts around 250 million individuals globally and few options for treatment exist. Once infected, the virus entrenches itself in the liver with a notoriously resilient colonisation of viral DNA (covalently-closed circular DNA, cccDNA. The majority of infections are cleared, yet we do not understand why 5% of adult immune responses fail leading to the chronic state with its collateral morbid effects such as cirrhosis and eventual hepatic carcinoma. The liver environment exhibits particularly complex spatial structures for metabolic processing and corresponding distributions of nutrients and transporters that may influence successful HBV entrenchment. We assembled a multi-scaled mathematical model of the fundamental hepatic processing unit, the sinusoid, into a whole-liver representation to investigate the impact of this intrinsic spatial heterogeneity on the HBV dynamic. Our results suggest HBV may be exploiting spatial aspects of the liver environment. We distributed increased HBV replication rates coincident with elevated levels of nutrients in the sinusoid entry point (the periportal region in tandem with similar distributions of hepatocyte transporters key to HBV invasion (e.g., the sodium-taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide or NTCP, or immune system activity. According to our results, such co-alignment of spatial distributions may contribute to persistence of HBV infections, depending on spatial distributions and intensity of immune response as well. Moreover, inspired by previous HBV models and experimentalist suggestions of extra-hepatic HBV replication, we tested in our model influence of HBV blood replication and observe an overall nominal effect on persistent liver infection. Regardless, we confirm prior results showing a solo cccDNA is sufficient to re-infect an entire liver, with corresponding concerns for transplantation and treatment.

Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-12-07

The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

A spatial structural derivative model for ultraslow diffusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Wei

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the ultraslow diffusion by a spatial structural derivative, in which the exponential function ex is selected as the structural function to construct the local structural derivative diffusion equation model. The analytical solution of the diffusion equation is a form of Biexponential distribution. Its corresponding mean squared displacement is numerically calculated, and increases more slowly than the logarithmic function of time. The local structural derivative diffusion equation with the structural function ex in space is an alternative physical and mathematical modeling model to characterize a kind of ultraslow diffusion.

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-12-01

Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wei, Mo; Chen, Genshe; Cruz, Jr., Jose B; Haynes, Leonard; Kruger, Martin

2007-01-01

.... In most Command and Control "C2" applications, the existing techniques, such as spatial-temporal point models for ECOA prediction or Discrete Choice Model "DCM", assume that insurgent attack features...

A Deep Similarity Metric Learning Model for Matching Text Chunks to Spatial Entities

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, K.; Wu, L.; Tao, L.; Li, W.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

The matching of spatial entities with related text is a long-standing research topic that has received considerable attention over the years. This task aims at enrich the contents of spatial entity, and attach the spatial location information to the text chunk. In the data fusion field, matching spatial entities with the corresponding describing text chunks has a big range of significance. However, the most traditional matching methods often rely fully on manually designed, task-specific linguistic features. This work proposes a Deep Similarity Metric Learning Model (DSMLM) based on Siamese Neural Network to learn similarity metric directly from the textural attributes of spatial entity and text chunk. The low-dimensional feature representation of the space entity and the text chunk can be learned separately. By employing the Cosine distance to measure the matching degree between the vectors, the model can make the matching pair vectors as close as possible. Mearnwhile, it makes the mismatching as far apart as possible through supervised learning. In addition, extensive experiments and analysis on geological survey data sets show that our DSMLM model can effectively capture the matching characteristics between the text chunk and the spatial entity, and achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Variability of effects of spatial climate data aggregation on regional yield simulation by crop models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Bussel, van L.G.J.

2015-01-01

Field-scale crop models are often applied at spatial resolutions coarser than that of the arable field. However, little is known about the response of the models to spatially aggregated climate input data and why these responses can differ across models. Depending on the model, regional yield

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

Science.gov (United States)

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

2004-01-01

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response

Spatial modelling of assumption of tourism development with geographic IT using

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jitka Machalová

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to show the possibilities of spatial modelling and analysing of assumptions of tourism development in the Czech Republic with the objective to make decision-making processes in tourism easier and more efficient (for companies, clients as well as destination managements. The development and placement of tourism depend on the factors (conditions that influence its application in specific areas. These factors are usually divided into three groups: selective, localization and realization. Tourism is inseparably connected with space – countryside. The countryside can be modelled and consecutively analysed by the means of geographical information technologies. With the help of spatial modelling and following analyses the localization and realization conditions in the regions of the Czech Republic have been evaluated. The best localization conditions have been found in the Liberecký region. The capital city of Prague has negligible natural conditions; however, those social ones are on a high level. Next, the spatial analyses have shown that the best realization conditions are provided by the capital city of Prague. Then the Central-Bohemian, South-Moravian, Moravian-Silesian and Karlovarský regions follow. The development of tourism destination is depended not only on the localization and realization factors but it is basically affected by the level of local destination management. Spatial modelling can help destination managers in decision-making processes in order to optimal use of destination potential and efficient targeting their marketing activities.

STARS: An ArcGIS Toolset Used to Calculate the Spatial Information Needed to Fit Spatial Statistical Models to Stream Network Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin Peterson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the STARS ArcGIS geoprocessing toolset, which is used to calcu- late the spatial information needed to fit spatial statistical models to stream network data using the SSN package. The STARS toolset is designed for use with a landscape network (LSN, which is a topological data model produced by the FLoWS ArcGIS geoprocessing toolset. An overview of the FLoWS LSN structure and a few particularly useful tools is also provided so that users will have a clear understanding of the underlying data struc- ture that the STARS toolset depends on. This document may be used as an introduction to new users. The methods used to calculate the spatial information and format the final .ssn object are also explicitly described so that users may create their own .ssn object using other data models and software.

A modal approach to modeling spatially distributed vibration energy dissipation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Segalman, Daniel Joseph

2010-08-01

The nonlinear behavior of mechanical joints is a confounding element in modeling the dynamic response of structures. Though there has been some progress in recent years in modeling individual joints, modeling the full structure with myriad frictional interfaces has remained an obstinate challenge. A strategy is suggested for structural dynamics modeling that can account for the combined effect of interface friction distributed spatially about the structure. This approach accommodates the following observations: (1) At small to modest amplitudes, the nonlinearity of jointed structures is manifest primarily in the energy dissipation - visible as vibration damping; (2) Correspondingly, measured vibration modes do not change significantly with amplitude; and (3) Significant coupling among the modes does not appear to result at modest amplitudes. The mathematical approach presented here postulates the preservation of linear modes and invests all the nonlinearity in the evolution of the modal coordinates. The constitutive form selected is one that works well in modeling spatially discrete joints. When compared against a mathematical truth model, the distributed dissipation approximation performs well.

Combining satellite data and appropriate objective functions for improved spatial pattern performance of a distributed hydrologic model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. C. Demirel

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Satellite-based earth observations offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatial-pattern-oriented model evaluations. In this study, observed spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET are utilised for spatial model calibration tailored to target the pattern performance of the model. The proposed calibration framework combines temporally aggregated observed spatial patterns with a new spatial performance metric and a flexible spatial parameterisation scheme. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM is used to simulate streamflow and AET and has been selected due to its soil parameter distribution approach based on pedo-transfer functions and the build in multi-scale parameter regionalisation. In addition two new spatial parameter distribution options have been incorporated in the model in order to increase the flexibility of root fraction coefficient and potential evapotranspiration correction parameterisations, based on soil type and vegetation density. These parameterisations are utilised as they are most relevant for simulated AET patterns from the hydrologic model. Due to the fundamental challenges encountered when evaluating spatial pattern performance using standard metrics, we developed a simple but highly discriminative spatial metric, i.e. one comprised of three easily interpretable components measuring co-location, variation and distribution of the spatial data. The study shows that with flexible spatial model parameterisation used in combination with the appropriate objective functions, the simulated spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration become substantially more similar to the satellite-based estimates. Overall 26 parameters are identified for calibration through a sequential screening approach based on a combination of streamflow and spatial pattern metrics. The robustness of the calibrations is tested using an ensemble of nine calibrations based on different seed numbers using the

Modeling individuals’ cognitive and affective responses in spatial learning behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, Q.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Janssens, D.; Wets, G.; Lo, H.P.; Leung, Stephen C.H.; Tan, Susanna M.L.

2008-01-01

Activity-based analysis has slowly shifted gear from analysis of daily activity patterns to analysis and modeling of dynamic activity-travel patterns. In this paper, we describe a dynamic model that is concerned with simulating cognitive and affective responses in spatial learning behavior for a

Transport lattice models of heat transport in skin with spatially heterogeneous, temperature-dependent perfusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Gregory T

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Investigation of bioheat transfer problems requires the evaluation of temporal and spatial distributions of temperature. This class of problems has been traditionally addressed using the Pennes bioheat equation. Transport of heat by conduction, and by temperature-dependent, spatially heterogeneous blood perfusion is modeled here using a transport lattice approach. Methods We represent heat transport processes by using a lattice that represents the Pennes bioheat equation in perfused tissues, and diffusion in nonperfused regions. The three layer skin model has a nonperfused viable epidermis, and deeper regions of dermis and subcutaneous tissue with perfusion that is constant or temperature-dependent. Two cases are considered: (1 surface contact heating and (2 spatially distributed heating. The model is relevant to the prediction of the transient and steady state temperature rise for different methods of power deposition within the skin. Accumulated thermal damage is estimated by using an Arrhenius type rate equation at locations where viable tissue temperature exceeds 42°C. Prediction of spatial temperature distributions is also illustrated with a two-dimensional model of skin created from a histological image. Results The transport lattice approach was validated by comparison with an analytical solution for a slab with homogeneous thermal properties and spatially distributed uniform sink held at constant temperatures at the ends. For typical transcutaneous blood gas sensing conditions the estimated damage is small, even with prolonged skin contact to a 45°C surface. Spatial heterogeneity in skin thermal properties leads to a non-uniform temperature distribution during a 10 GHz electromagnetic field exposure. A realistic two-dimensional model of the skin shows that tissue heterogeneity does not lead to a significant local temperature increase when heated by a hot wire tip. Conclusions The heat transport system model of the

A spatial approach to the modelling and estimation of areal precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skaugen, T

1996-12-31

In hydroelectric power technology it is important that the mean precipitation that falls in an area can be calculated. This doctoral thesis studies how the morphology of rainfall, described by the spatial statistical parameters, can be used to improve interpolation and estimation procedures. It attempts to formulate a theory which includes the relations between the size of the catchment and the size of the precipitation events in the modelling of areal precipitation. The problem of estimating and modelling areal precipitation can be formulated as the problem of estimating an inhomogeneously distributed flux of a certain spatial extent being measured at points in a randomly placed domain. The information contained in the different morphology of precipitation types is used to improve estimation procedures of areal precipitation, by interpolation (kriging) or by constructing areal reduction factors. A new approach to precipitation modelling is introduced where the analysis of the spatial coverage of precipitation at different intensities plays a key role in the formulation of a stochastic model for extreme areal precipitation and in deriving the probability density function of areal precipitation. 127 refs., 30 figs., 13 tabs.

An Evolutionary Model of Spatial Competition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Winter, Sidney G.

  This paper sets forth an evolutionary model in which diverse businesses, with diverse offerings, compete in a stylized physical space.  When a business firm attempts to expand its activity, so as to profit further from the capabilities it has developed, it necessarily does so in a "new location...... as well in the new environment as they did in the old; the firm may respond with effort to locate appropriate environments or by modification of its routines.  Tradeoffs are presented between the complexity of a business model and its replication costs,  as well as issues involving response....... Randomly generated firm policies are tested first by a local market environment, and then, if success leads the firm to grow spatially, in a gradually expanding environment.  In the initial experiments reported here, we show that the model generates configurations that reflect features of the exogenous...

A framework to establish credibility of computational models in biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Eann A; Whelan, Maurice P

2017-10-01

Computational models in biology and biomedical science are often constructed to aid people's understanding of phenomena or to inform decisions with socioeconomic consequences. Model credibility is the willingness of people to trust a model's predictions and is often difficult to establish for computational biology models. A 3 × 3 matrix has been proposed to allow such models to be categorised with respect to their testability and epistemic foundation in order to guide the selection of an appropriate process of validation to supply evidence to establish credibility. Three approaches to validation are identified that can be deployed depending on whether a model is deemed untestable, testable or lies somewhere in between. In the latter two cases, the validation process involves the quantification of uncertainty which is a key output. The issues arising due to the complexity and inherent variability of biological systems are discussed and the creation of 'digital twins' proposed as a means to alleviate the issues and provide a more robust, transparent and traceable route to model credibility and acceptance. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

[Application of Land-use Regression Models in Spatial-temporal Differentiation of Air Pollution].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jian-sheng; Xie, Wu-dan; Li, Jia-cheng

2016-02-15

With the rapid development of urbanization, industrialization and motorization, air pollution has become one of the most serious environmental problems in our country, which has negative impacts on public health and ecological environment. LUR model is one of the common methods simulating spatial-temporal differentiation of air pollution at city scale. It has broad application in Europe and North America, but not really in China. Based on many studies at home and abroad, this study started with the main steps to develop LUR model, including obtaining the monitoring data, generating variables, developing models, model validation and regression mapping. Then a conclusion was drawn on the progress of LUR models in spatial-temporal differentiation of air pollution. Furthermore, the research focus and orientation in the future were prospected, including highlighting spatial-temporal differentiation, increasing classes of model variables and improving the methods of model development. This paper was aimed to popularize the application of LUR model in China, and provide a methodological basis for human exposure, epidemiologic study and health risk assessment.

Establishing an International Soil Modelling Consortium

Science.gov (United States)

Vereecken, Harry; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan

2015-04-01

Soil is one of the most critical life-supporting compartments of the Biosphere. Soil provides numerous ecosystem services such as a habitat for biodiversity, water and nutrients, as well as producing food, feed, fiber and energy. To feed the rapidly growing world population in 2050, agricultural food production must be doubled using the same land resources footprint. At the same time, soil resources are threatened due to improper management and climate change. Soil is not only essential for establishing a sustainable bio-economy, but also plays a key role also in a broad range of societal challenges including 1) climate change mitigation and adaptation, 2) land use change 3) water resource protection, 4) biotechnology for human health, 5) biodiversity and ecological sustainability, and 6) combating desertification. Soils regulate and support water, mass and energy fluxes between the land surface, the vegetation, the atmosphere and the deep subsurface and control storage and release of organic matter affecting climate regulation and biogeochemical cycles. Despite the many important functions of soil, many fundamental knowledge gaps remain, regarding the role of soil biota and biodiversity on ecosystem services, the structure and dynamics of soil communities, the interplay between hydrologic and biotic processes, the quantification of soil biogeochemical processes and soil structural processes, the resilience and recovery of soils from stress, as well as the prediction of soil development and the evolution of soils in the landscape, to name a few. Soil models have long played an important role in quantifying and predicting soil processes and related ecosystem services. However, a new generation of soil models based on a whole systems approach comprising all physical, mechanical, chemical and biological processes is now required to address these critical knowledge gaps and thus contribute to the preservation of ecosystem services, improve our understanding of climate

Establishing an academic laboratory: mentoring as a business model.

Science.gov (United States)

Greco, Valentina

2014-11-01

It is a tremendous honor for my group and me to receive the recognition of the 2014 Women in Cell Biology Junior Award. I would like to take the opportunity of this essay to describe my scientific journey, discuss my philosophy about running a group, and propose what I think is a generalizable model to efficiently establish an academic laboratory. This essay is about my view on the critical components that go into establishing a highly functional academic laboratory during the current tough, competitive times. © 2014 Greco.

Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

2017-12-01

Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

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Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

2014-05-01

Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models of chromatin spatial organisation in the cell nucleus

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Nicodemi, Mario

2014-03-01

In the cell nucleus chromosomes have a complex architecture serving vital functional purposes. Recent experiments have started unveiling the interaction map of DNA sites genome-wide, revealing different levels of organisation at different scales. The principles, though, which orchestrate such a complex 3D structure remain still mysterious. I will overview the scenario emerging from some classical polymer physics models of the general aspect of chromatin spatial organisation. The available experimental data, which can be rationalised in a single framework, support a picture where chromatin is a complex mixture of differently folded regions, self-organised across spatial scales according to basic physical mechanisms. I will also discuss applications to specific DNA loci, e.g. the HoxB locus, where models informed with biological details, and tested against targeted experiments, can help identifying the determinants of folding.

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

2016-07-18

This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.

Neuromorphic model of magnocellular and parvocellular visual paths: spatial resolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aguirre, Rolando C; Felice, Carmelo J; Colombo, Elisa M

2007-01-01

Physiological studies of the human retina show the existence of at least two visual information processing channels, the magnocellular and the parvocellular ones. Both have different spatial, temporal and chromatic features. This paper focuses on the different spatial resolution of these two channels. We propose a neuromorphic model, so that they match the retina's physiology. Considering the Deutsch and Deutsch model (1992), we propose two configurations (one for each visual channel) of the connection between the retina's different cell layers. The responses of the proposed model have similar behaviour to those of the visual cells: each channel has an optimum response corresponding to a given stimulus size which decreases for larger or smaller stimuli. This size is bigger for the magno path than for the parvo path and, in the end, both channels produce a magnifying of the borders of a stimulus

Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuanglin Fang

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, Spatial Lag Model (SAR, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variations of China’s urbanization process on air quality. The results show that a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in AQI values. Regression models revealed urbanization has played an important negative role in determining air quality in Chinese cities. The population, urbanization rate, automobile density, and the proportion of secondary industry were all found to have had a significant influence over air quality. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP and the scale of urban land use, however, failed the significance test at 10% level. The GWR model performed better than global models and the results of GWR modeling show that the relationship between urbanization and air quality was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggest significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on air quality.

Establishing an Improved Kane Dynamic Model for the 7-DOF Reconfigurable Modular Robot

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Xiao Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an improved Kane dynamic model theory for the 7-DOF modular robot in this paper, and the model precision is improved by the improved function T′it. We designed three types of progressive modular joints for reconfigurable modular robot that can be used in industrial robot, space robot, and special robot. The Kane dynamic model and the solid dynamic model are established, respectively, for the 7-DOF modular robot. After that, the experimental results are obtained from the simulation experiment of typical task in the established dynamic models. By the analysis model of error, the equation of the improved torque T′it is derived and proposed. And the improved Kane dynamic model is established for the modular robot that used T′it. Based on the experimental data, the undetermined coefficient matrix is five-order linear that was proved in 7-DOF modular robot. And the explicit formulation is solved of the Kane dynamic model and can be used in control system.

Scanning of speechless comics changes spatial biases in mental model construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Román, Antonio; Flumini, Andrea; Santiago, Julio

2018-08-05

The mental representation of both time and number shows lateral spatial biases, which can be affected by habitual reading and writing direction. However, this effect is in place before children begin to read. One potential early cause is the experiences of looking at picture books together with a carer, as those images also follow the directionality of the script. What is the underlying mechanism for this effect? In the present study, we test the possibility that such experiences induce spatial biases in mental model construction, a mechanism which is a good candidate to induce the biases observed with numbers and times. We presented a speechless comic in either standard (left-to-right) or mirror-reversed (right-to-left) form to adult Spanish participants. We then asked them to draw the scene depicted by sentences like 'the square is between the cross and the circle'. The position of the lateral objects in these drawings reveals the spatial biases at work when building mental models in working memory. Under conditions of highly consistent directionality, the mirror comic changed pre-existing lateral biases. Processes of mental model construction in working memory stand as a potential mechanism for the generation of spatial biases for time and number.This article is part of the theme issue 'Varieties of abstract concepts: development, use and representation in the brain'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Establishment of animal model of dual liver transplantation in rat.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Zhang

Full Text Available The animal model of the whole-size and reduced-size liver transplantation in both rat and mouse has been successfully established. Because of the difficulties and complexities in microsurgical technology, the animal model of dual liver transplantation was still not established for twelve years since the first human dual liver transplantation has been made a success. There is an essential need to establish this animal model to lay a basic foundation for clinical practice. To study the physiological and histopathological changes of dual liver transplantation, "Y" type vein from the cross part between vena cava and two iliac of donor and "Y' type prosthesis were employed to recanalize portal vein and the bile duct between dual liver grafts and recipient. The dual right upper lobes about 45-50% of the recipient liver volume were taken as donor, one was orthotopically implanted at its original position, the other was rotated 180° sagitally and heterotopically positioned in the left upper quadrant. Microcirculation parameters, liver function, immunohistochemistry and survival were analyzed to evaluate the function of dual liver grafts. No significant difference in the hepatic microcirculatory flow was found between two grafts in the first 90 minutes after reperfusion. Light and electronic microscope showed the liver architecture was maintained without obvious features of cellular destruction and the continuity of the endothelium was preserved. Only 3 heterotopically positioned graft appeared patchy desquamation of endothelial cell, mitochondrial swelling and hepatocytes cytoplasmic vacuolization. Immunohistochemistry revealed there is no difference in hepatocyte activity and the ability of endothelia to contract and relax after reperfusion between dual grafts. Dual grafts made a rapid amelioration of liver function after reperfusion. 7 rats survived more than 7 days with survival rate of 58.3.%. Using "Y" type vein and bile duct prosthesis, we

Spatial Forecast of Landslides in Three Gorges Based On Spatial Data Mining

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Xianmin Wang

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc. China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E

2011-06-01

To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.

Spatial Modeling for Groundwater Arsenic Levels in North Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E.

2013-01-01

To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. PMID:21528844

Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, D.; Miranda, M.L.; Tootoo, J.; Bradley, P.; Gelfand, A.E.

2011-01-01

To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.

Escherichia coli pollution in a Baltic Sea lagoon: a model-based source and spatial risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Schippmann, Bianca; Schernewski, Gerald; Gräwe, Ulf

2013-07-01

Tourism around the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon, at the southern Baltic coast, has a long tradition, is an important source of income and shall be further developed. Insufficient bathing water quality and frequent beach closings, especially in the Oder river mouth, hamper tourism development. Monitoring data gives only an incomplete picture of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria sources, spatial transport patterns, risks and does neither support an efficient bathing water quality management nor decision making. We apply a 3D ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model to analyse pollution events and to obtain spatial E. coli pollution maps based on scenario simulations. Model results suggests that insufficient sewage treatment in the city of Szczecin is the major source of faecal pollution, even for beaches 20km downstream. E. coli mortality rate and emission intensity are key parameters for concentration levels downstream. Wind and river discharge play a modifying role. Prevailing southwestern wind conditions cause E. coli transport along the eastern coast and favour high concentration levels at the beaches. Our simulations indicate that beach closings in 2006 would not have been necessary according to the new EU-Bathing Water Quality Directive (2006/7/EC). The implementation of the new directive will, very likely, reduce the number of beach closings, but not the risk for summer tourists. Model results suggest, that a full sewage treatment in Szczecin would allow the establishment of new beaches closer to the city (north of Dabie lake). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spatially balanced topological interaction grants optimal cohesion in flocking models.

Science.gov (United States)

Camperi, Marcelo; Cavagna, Andrea; Giardina, Irene; Parisi, Giorgio; Silvestri, Edmondo

2012-12-06

Models of self-propelled particles (SPPs) are an indispensable tool to investigate collective animal behaviour. Originally, SPP models were proposed with metric interactions, where each individual coordinates with neighbours within a fixed metric radius. However, recent experiments on bird flocks indicate that interactions are topological: each individual interacts with a fixed number of neighbours, irrespective of their distance. It has been argued that topological interactions are more robust than metric ones against external perturbations, a significant evolutionary advantage for systems under constant predatory pressure. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing the stability of metric versus topological SPP models in three dimensions. We show that topological models are more stable than metric ones. We also show that a significantly better stability is achieved when neighbours are selected according to a spatially balanced topological rule, namely when interacting neighbours are evenly distributed in angle around the focal individual. Finally, we find that the minimal number of interacting neighbours needed to achieve fully stable cohesion in a spatially balanced model is compatible with the value observed in field experiments on starling flocks.

A spatial modeling approach to identify potential butternut restoration sites in Mammoth Cave National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L.M.; Van Manen, F.T.; Schlarbaum, S.E.; DePoy, M.

2006-01-01

Incorporation of disease resistance is nearly complete for several important North American hardwood species threatened by exotic fungal diseases. The next important step toward species restoration would be to develop reliable tools to delineate ideal restoration sites on a landscape scale. We integrated spatial modeling and remote sensing techniques to delineate potential restoration sites for Butternut (Juglans cinerea L.) trees, a hardwood species being decimated by an exotic fungus, in Mammoth Cave National Park (MCNP), Kentucky. We first developed a multivariate habitat model to determine optimum Butternut habitats within MCNP. Habitat characteristics of 54 known Butternut locations were used in combination with eight topographic and land use data layers to calculate an index of habitat suitability based on Mahalanobis distance (D2). We used a bootstrapping technique to test the reliability of model predictions. Based on a threshold value for the D2 statistic, 75.9% of the Butternut locations were correctly classified, indicating that the habitat model performed well. Because Butternut seedlings require extensive amounts of sunlight to become established, we used canopy cover data to refine our delineation of favorable areas for Butternut restoration. Areas with the most favorable conditions to establish Butternut seedlings were limited to 291.6 ha. Our study provides a useful reference on the amount and location of favorable Butternut habitat in MCNP and can be used to identify priority areas for future Butternut restoration. Given the availability of relevant habitat layers and accurate location records, our approach can be applied to other tree species and areas. ?? 2006 Society for Ecological Restoration International.