WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling shoreline evolution

  1. A numerical shoreline model for shorelines with large curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new numerical model for shoreline change which can be used to model the evolution of shorelines with large curvature. The model is based on a one-line formulation in terms of coordinates which follow the shape of the shoreline, instead of the more common approach where the two...... orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment...... transport field across the coastal profile to obtain the longshore sediment transport variation along the shoreline. The model is used to compute the evolution of a shoreline with a 90° change in shoreline orientation; due to this drastic change in orientation a migrating shoreline spit develops...

  2. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    The present thesis considers undulations on sandy shorelines. The aim of the study is to determine the physical mechanisms which govern the morphologic evolution of shoreline undulations, and thereby to be able to predict their shape, dimensions and evolution in time. In order to do so a numerical...... model has been developed which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines. The numerical model is based on a spectral wave model, a depth integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model. First the theoretical...... length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a shoreline stability analysis based on the numerical model. The analysis shows that the length of the undulations in the linear regime depends on the incoming wave conditions and on the coastal profile. For larger waves...

  3. Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2012-01-01

    A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

  4. Modelling shoreline evolution in the vicinity of a groyne and a river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valsamidis, Antonios; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2017-01-01

    Analytical solutions to the equations governing shoreline evolution are well-known and have value both as pedagogical tools and for conceptual design. Nevertheless, solutions have been restricted to a fairly narrow class of conditions with limited applicability to real-life situations. We present a new analytical solution for a widely encountered situation where a groyne is constructed close to a river to control sediment movement. The solution, which employs Laplace transforms, has the advantage that a solution for time-varying conditions may be constructed from the solution for constant conditions by means of the Heaviside procedure. Solutions are presented for various combinations of wave conditions and sediment supply/removal by the river. An innovation introduced in this work is the capability to provide an analytical assessment of the accretion or erosion caused near the groyne due to its proximity to the river which may act either as a source or a sink of sediment material.

  5. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a numerical study of the non-linear development of alongshore undulations up to fully developed quasi-steady equilibrium. A numerical model which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines is applied, based on a spectral wave model, a depth...... integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described....... In the fully non-linear regime down-drift spits and migrating shoreline undulations are described.Three different shoreline shapes are found depending on the wave conditions: undulations with no spits, undulations with shore parallel spit and undulations with reconnecting spits. © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V....

  6. Human effects on estuarine shoreline decadal evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rilo, A.; Freire, P.; Ceia, R.; Mendes, R. N.; Catalão, J.; Taborda, R.

    2012-04-01

    Due to their sheltered conditions and natural resources, estuaries were always attractive to human activities (industrial, agriculture, residential and recreation). Consequently, the complex interactions between anthropogenic and natural drivers increase estuarine shoreline vulnerability to climate changes impacts. The environmental sustainability of these systems depends on a fragile balance between societal development and natural values that can be further disturbed by climate change effects. This challenging task for scientific community, managers and stakeholders can only be accomplished with interdisplinary approaches. In this context, it seems clear that estuarine management plans should incorporate the concept of change into the planning of policy decisions since these natural dynamic areas are often under human pressure and are recognized as sensitive to climate change effects. Therefore, the knowledge about historical evolution of estuarine shoreline is important to provide new insights on the spatial and temporal dimensions of estuarine change. This paper aims to present and discuss shoreline changes due to human intervention in Tagus estuary, located on the west coast of Portugal. Detailed margins cartography, in a 550m fringe (drawn inland from the highest astronomical tide line), was performed based on 2007 orthophotos (spatial resolution of 0.5 m) analysis. Several classification categories were considered, as urbanized areas, industrial, port and airport facilities, agriculture spaces, green areas and natural zones. The estuarine bed (area bellow the highest astronomical tide line) was also mapped (including human occupation, natural habitats, morpho-sedimentary units) based on the geographic information above and LANSAT 7 TM+ images using image processing techniques. Aerial photographs dated from 1944, 1946, 1948, 1955 and 1958 were analyzed for a set of pilot zones in order to fully understand the decadal shoreline change. Estuarine bed presents

  7. Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

    2015-04-01

    Coastal zones are fragile and dynamic environments where environmental, economic and social aspects are interconnected. While these areas are often highly urbanised, they are especially vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g. storms, floods, erosion, storm surges). Hence, high risk affects people and goods in several coastal zones throughout the world. The recent storms that hit the European coasts (Hercules, Christian and Stephanie, among others) showed the high vulnerability of these territories. Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) deals with the sustainable development of coastal zones by taking into account the different aspects that affect them, including risks adaptation and mitigation. Accurate mapping of shoreline position through time and models to predict shoreline evolution play a fundamental role for coastal zone risk management. In this context, spaceborne remote sensing is fundamental because it provides synoptic and multitemporal information that allow the extraction of shorelines' proxies. These are stable coastal features (e.g. the vegetation lines, the foredune toe, etc.) that can be mapped instead of the proper shoreline, which is an extremely dynamic boundary. The use of different proxies may provide different evolutionary patterns for the same study area; therefore it is important to assess which is the most suitable, given the environmental characteristics of a specific area. In Portugal, the coastal stretch between Ovar and Marinha Grande is one of the greatest national challenges in terms of integrated management of resources and risks. This area is characterised by intense erosive processes that largely exceed the shoreline's retreat predictions made in the first Coastal Zone Management Plan, developed in 2000. The aim of this work was to assess the accuracy of a new model of shoreline evolution implemented in 2013 in order to check its robustness for short-term predictions. The method exploited the potentialities of the Landsat archive

  8. NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF SHORELINE EVOLUTION NEAR COASTAL STRUCTURES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cai Ze-wei; Song Xiao-gang; Ye Chun-yang

    2003-01-01

    Numerical analysis was made for shoreline evolution in the vicinity of coastal structures, including spur dike, detached breakwaters. The nonlinear partial differential equation was derived, and numerical solutions were obtained by the finite difference method. The numerical results show good agreement with previous analytical results.

  9. Short and medium-term evolution of shoreline undulations on curvilinear coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Ruiz, Alejandro; Ortega-Sánchez, Miguel; Baquerizo, Asunción; Losada, Miguel A.

    2012-07-01

    This article proposes a one-line type model to explain the formation and evolution of shoreline undulations on circular or elliptic curvilinear coasts, such as littoral spits. The model takes into account the variation of the surf zone width stemming from the convergence and divergence of the waves propagating over a conical bathymetry with a small radius of curvature. The alongshore sediment transport varies with the angle formed by the wave crests and the coastline, as well as with surf zone width and sediment grain size. This model was applied to the shoreline undulations observed at the mouth of the River Guadalquivir (Gulf of Cádiz, Spain) and those at El Puntal Spit (Cantabrian Sea, Spain). In the first case, the model was forced with several sets of five-year wave climate simulations. At the El Puntal Spit, three different wave conditions, corresponding to the growth, saturation, and decay stages of the undulations, were simulated. In both cases, a net longitudinal growth of the spits was observed. Despite simplifications, the amplitude and wavelength of the shoreline undulations agree with the observations. Furthermore, both the zone and development time of the shoreline undulations can be estimated. The mechanism proposed for their generation and evolution may be complementary to other mechanisms, such as the instability mechanism of the coastline associated with high-angle waves.

  10. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  11. UAV survey of a Thyrrenian micro-tidal beach for shoreline evolution update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Pugliano, Giovanni; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Mucerino, Luigi

    2015-04-01

    Coastal geomorphology requires increasingly accurate topographic information of the beach systems to perform reliable simulation of coastal erosion, flooding phenomena, and coastal vulnerability assessment. Among the range of terrestrial and aerial methods available to produce such a dataset, this study tests the utility of low-altitude aerial imageries collected by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The image-based approach was selected whilst searching for a rapid, inexpensive, and highly automated method, able to produce 3D information from unstructured aerial images. In particular, it was used to generate a high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) of the micro-tidal beach of Serapo - Gaeta (LT) in order to obtain recent update of erosional/accretional trends already established through historical shoreline evolution. A UAV exacopter (fig. 1a) was used, weighing about 2500g, carrying on board a GPS and multi-directional accelerometer to ensure a recovery of the beach features (fig. 1b) through a sweep with constant speed, direction and altitude. The on-board camera was a Canon 16M pixels, with fixed and constant focal takeoff in order to perform the 3D cloud points. Six adjacent strips were performed for the survey realization with pictures taken every second in sequence, in order to allow a minimum 80% overlap. A direct on site survey was also carried out with a DGPS for the placement of GPS markers and the geo-referencing of the final product (fig. 1c). Each flight with constant speed, direction and altitude recorded from 500 to 800 shots. The height of flight was dictated by the scale of the final report, an altitude of 100m was used for the beach survey. The topographic survey on the ground for the placement of the control points was performed with the Trimble R6 DGPS in RTK mode. The long-term shoreline evolution was obtained by a sixty-year historical shoreline time-series, through the analysis of a number of aerial photographs dating from 1954 to 2013. The

  12. Impact of land-use change and hard structures on the evolution of fringing marsh shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattheus, Christopher R.; Rodriguez, Antonio B.; McKee, Brent A.; Currin, Carolyn A.

    2010-07-01

    Estuarine fringe marshes provide essential ecosystem services to coastal regions, including carbon sequestration and provision of shelter and nursery grounds for aquatic and terrestrial animals. The ability of a marsh to sustain itself by vertical accretion in response to sea-level rise is, in part, limited by inorganic sediment supply. Models attempting to forecast salt-marsh response to future sea-level rise commonly ignore land-use changes, despite the recent coastal population boom and the potential of land-use changes to alter sediment sources and modify established sediment-transport pathways. This study investigates the impacts of landscape modifications, which are typical of coastal areas, on the nearshore sedimentation and edge evolution of two fringing marshes. The sites examined include a marsh fringing the upper bay and a marsh fringing a beach ridge on the estuarine shoreline of a barrier island. Both sites are located in the same estuarine system, have similar hydrologic settings and comparable vegetation densities. Previous work, marsh cores, and a historical record from aerial photos indicate that although the fringe marshes are in different geomorphic locations, prior to anthropogenic modifications they were similar in terms of nearshore-sediment composition, scarp-shoreline morphology, and shoreline trajectory. The upper-bay marsh was impacted by the introduction of tree farming in the watershed of a tributary creek to the upper bay, which increased upland erosion and caused higher sedimentation rates in the estuary. The back-barrier marsh, which received no contribution from the tree farm because it is distal with respect to river input, was modified by the installation of a pier and rock sill. Terrestrial LIDAR, surface elevation tables, and accretion rates obtained from radioisotope analyses show that the deforestation induced high rates of nearshore and marsh accretion at the upper-bay site, which is promoting marsh colonization and expansion

  13. Numerical Modeling System for Shoreline Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    the cross-shore transport term, q. Thus, the gain or loss of sediment will be constant in time and independent of variations in the wave cli- mate...file, arid then read again from the beginning. A simple way to represent a wave climate which is constant in time , for test purposes, is to place only...presented. The offshore (d 40 m) wave climate was held constant in time (Ho = 1 m, ao = 30 degrees, and T = 5 seconds), and the initial shoreline was

  14. Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Event-driven backshore shoreline change

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline...

  15. A Numerical Model for Predicting Shoreline Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-07-01

    problem of Figure 9(A). Of interest is that the undulatory patterns of the shoreline in Figure 9(A) dis- appear in Figure 9(B). Hence, diffraction...Mi clli;ia (south oh’ 1i .11 shio%\\ 1hat more t han 39 26 V --2i \\ \\’ . + ,i24Z 4 DEPTH IN FEET. MAR . 1973 ALL DEPTHS ARE REFERRED MAR . 1974 TO LOW...SS’,O averages for IHolland Ilarbor.1 Mont h If II., (’t) (tt) (s) .ali . ,1.3 4.3 0. 1 Feb. .4.0 3.6 6.0 Mar . 3.5 1.9 0. 3 Apr. 2. 6 2.. S. 5 Jlay 2.3

  16. Multidecadal shoreline changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2014-01-01

    Multidecadal shoreline changes along ca. 7000 km coastline around Denmark were computed for the time interval between 1862 AD and 2005 AD and were connected with a geomorphological coastal classification. The shoreline data set was based on shoreline positions from historical and modern topographic...... maps. Coastal landforms were identified on a digital terrain model in combination with aerial photographs. Two shoreline-change computation methods were evaluated at a test site, aiming for optimized time efficiency and accuracy of the countrywide application: a Nearest Neighbor search and a cross...... were, therefore, computed with the DSAS method. Patterns in coastline dynamics were identified through the connection of shoreline-change rates with the occurrence of coastal landforms. Short-term changes and alterations of shoreline evolution through coastal structures were not resolved in this study...

  17. Anthropogenic Impacts on the Evolution of Estuarine Fringe-marsh Shorelines: Implications of Coastal Setting on Marsh Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattheus, C. R.; Rodriguez, A. B.; McKee, B. A.; Currin, C.

    2009-12-01

    Fringe marshes, which are common to estuarine shorelines, provide essential ecosystem services to coastal regions, including carbon sequestration, provision of shelter and nursery grounds for aquatic and terrestrial animals, and buffering of lowland areas from marine flooding. Thousands of acres of intertidal wetlands are lost each year in the U.S., in part due to a recent acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise. The ability of a marsh to sustain itself by vertical accretion is generally limited by inorganic sediment supply. Despite a continuing global population boom, models attempting to forecast marsh response to future sea-level rise do not take land-use changes into account, which have the potential to alter sediment sources and modify or disrupt established sediment pathways. This study investigates how landscape modifications can alter nearshore sedimentation regimes and influence marsh-edge evolution. Marshes in this study are located in similar hydrologic and geographic settings within coastal North Carolina and have comparable vegetation densities; however, their respective coastal environments are affected by different land-use modifications. Site A is situated within an upper bay environment, whereas Site B is located along the estuarine shoreline of a barrier island. Both sites are part of the same estuarine system. Marsh-shoreline positions and surface elevations were monitored at the sites over a two-year period using high-resolution terrestrial LIDAR. This data set was supplemented with accretion rates obtained from radioisotope analysis, precipitation records, and information on land-use changes in an effort to develop an understanding of their effect on marsh evolution. The study region has undergone significant land-use changes, including the introduction of tree farming in the lower reaches of a tributary creek to the upper bay. Widespread deforestation in this watershed led to increased upland erosion and higher sediment-supply rates to the

  18. Shanghai Shoreline Evolution Interpreted from Historical Atlas and Remote Sensing Imagery Over the Past 2,200 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, H.; Wang, W.; Qiao, G.

    2016-06-01

    Shanghai, the axis of economic development in China and holding the most prosperous metropolis in the world, is located at Yangtze Estuary which is susceptible to shoreline changes affected by different factors, such as sediment supply and sea level changes, making it very important to study the shoreline changes over long time period. This paper presents the Shanghai shoreline evolution process from BC 221 up to 2015, by employing both the cartographic data (historical atlas) and the remote sensing images. A series of image processing techniques were applied to seamlessly register the historical atlas and satellite images to the same orthophoto base map, followed by the semi-automatic extraction of shoreline from images. Results show that since BC 221, the Shanghai shoreline has been witnessing distinct progradation, and the rate of shoreline advance varied in different areas. The average shoreline change in southern Yangtze Estuary was about 2,573 km2 (accretion) between BC 221 and 1948 with a 40 km progradation, while the shoreline in northern Hangzhou Bay kept relatively steady after 1671. Overall, 3,119 km2 of Shanghai area was added between BC 221 and 1948 with an average rate of 75 km2/50yr, and the addition went to 4,372 km2 in 2015. In this paper, the possible drives of the shoreline evolution was discussed. This study is important for understanding the coastal dynamics in Shanghai over a long time period for the management and development of coastal environments.

  19. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  20. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-04-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  1. Medium-term shoreline evolution of the mediterranean coast of Andalusia (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Vincenzo; Manno, Giorgio; Messina, Enrica; Anfuso, Giorgio; Suffo, Miguel

    2015-04-01

    Coastal environment is a dynamic system in which numerous natural processes are continuously actuating and interacting among them. As a result, geomorphologic, physical and biological characteristics of coastal environments are constantly changing. Such dynamic balance is nowadays seriously threatened by the strong and increasing anthropic pressure that favors erosion processes, and the associated loss of environmental, ecologic and economic aspects. Sandy beaches are the most vulnerable environments in coastal areas. The aim of this work was to reconstruct the historical evolution of the Mediterranean coastline of Andalusia, Spain. The investigated area is about 500 km in length and includes the provinces of Cadiz, Malaga, Granada and Almeria. It is essentially composed by cliffed sectors with sand and gravel pocket beaches constituting independent morphological cells of different dimensions. This study was based on the analysis of aerial photos and satellite images covering a period of 55 years, between 1956 and 2011. Aerial photos were scanned and geo-referenced in order to solve scale and distortion problems. The shoreline was considered and mapped through the identification of the wet / dry sand limit which coincides with the line of maximum run-up; this indicator - representing the shoreline at the moment of the photo - is the most easily identifiable and representative one in microtidal coastal environments. Since shoreline position is linked to beach profile characteristics and to waves, tide and wind conditions at the moment of the photo, such parameters were taken into account in the calculation of shoreline position and changes. Specifically, retreat/accretion changes were reconstructed applying the DSAS method (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) proposed by the US Geological Survey. Significant beach accretion was observed at Playa La Mamola (Granada), with +1 m/y, because the construction of five breakwaters, and at Playa El Cantal (Almeria) and close

  2. Modelling the development of rocky shoreline profiles along the northern coast of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thébaudeau, Benjamin; Trenhaile, Alan S.; Edwards, Robin J.

    2013-12-01

    A mathematical wave-erosion model is used to simulate postglacial shoreline profiles along the rocky, high energy coast of the north of Ireland. The wave erosion model is driven by a suite of relative sea-level (RSL) curves for the last 16,000 years produced from four glacial rebound models. Multiple runs are performed with different initial shore profiles and rock resistances to investigate shoreline evolution and the significance of inherited morphology on the resultant profile shape. The simulated profiles are then compared with mapped profiles from three areas of the north of Ireland with different lithological and hydrographic properties. Modelled profiles generally replicate the overall mean shoreline gradients observed across the region when rock resistance is relatively high and erosion rates correspondingly low. In these profiles, breaks in mean slope are observed at depths comparable to the RSL minima in several of the RSL scenarios (at c. - 10 m, - 15 m and - 20 m for North Antrim, Derry and Donegal respectively). At Portrush and Portballintrae (Derry), profiles may be influenced by structural controls relating to the underlying basalt surface and the removal of overlying glaciogenic sediments. All RSL scenarios replicate the observed eastward increase in cliff-platform junction height, reflecting the differential glacioisostatic rebound experienced along the coast. However, the precise elevation at which the simulated cliff base occurs is sensitive to the choice of RSL scenario, suggesting that this parameter may prove useful in evaluating glacial rebound model performance. Several of the RSL scenarios generate raised shore platforms or terraces in North Antrim and Derry at heights comparable to raised shoreline features reported in the literature. However, no single curve or combination of parameters is capable of generating the range of platform and terrace features observed in the bathymetric and topographic data. These misfits are consistent with

  3. Case Study: Sensitivity Analysis of the Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model1 by S. Kyle McKay2 and J. Craig Fischenich3 OVERVIEW: Sensitivity analysis is a technique for...relevance of questions posed during an Independent External Peer Review (IEPR). BARATARIA BASIN BARRIER SHORELINE (BBBS) STUDY: On average...scale restoration projects to reduce marsh loss and maintain these wetlands as healthy functioning ecosystems. The Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline

  4. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 2: Varying wave climate and comparison with observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    the observed shoreline features qualitatively and quantitatively. The model slightly over-predicts the scale of the feature and, associated with this, slightly under-predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the west coast of Denmark, the shore is exposed to waves with an angle...

  5. Calibration of Numerical Model for Shoreline Change Prediction Using Satellite Imagery Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Sutikno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calibration of numerical model for shoreline change prediction using satellite imagery data in muddy beach. Tanjung Motong beach, a muddy beach that is suffered high abrasion in Rangsang Island, Riau province, Indonesia was picked as study area. The primary numerical modeling tool used in this research was GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline change, which has been successfully applied in many case studies of shoreline change phenomena on a sandy beach.The model was calibrated using two extracted coastlines satellite imagery data, such as Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS. The extracted coastline data were analyzed by using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System tool to get the rate of shoreline change from 1990 to 2014. The main purpose of the calibration process was to find out the appropriate value for K 1 and K coefficients so that the predicted shoreline change had an acceptable correlation with the output of the satellite data processing. The result of this research showed that the shoreline change prediction had a good correlation with the historical evidence data in Tanjung Motong coast. It means that the GENESIS tool is not only applicable for shoreline prediction in sandy beach but also in muddy beach.

  6. Shoreline Change Modeling Using One-Line Models: Application and Comparison of GenCade, Unibest, and Litpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    ERDC/CHL CHETN-IV-102 September 2014 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Shoreline Change Modeling Using One-Line Models...this Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) is to demonstrate application of three popular and readily available shoreline change...study to compare one- line shoreline change models. Thomas and Frey (2013), the first report in this series, documented the differences and similarities

  7. Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Long-term back-barrier shoreline change

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline...

  8. Shoreline Response to Climate Change and Human Manipulations in a Model of Large-Scale Coastal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slott, J. M.; Murray, A. B.; Valvo, L.; Ashton, A.

    2005-12-01

    Gradients in wave-driven alongshore sediment transport cause long-term change in the shape of sandy coastlines. Recent modeling work (Ashton, et. al. 2001) suggests coastlines can attain shapes that are in quasi-equilibrium with a regional wave climate (the distribution of wave influences as a function of wave-approach angles). Mid-latitude winter storms and tropical cyclones, for example, dominate the wave climate off of the Southeast coast of the United States. The resulting wave distribution likely determines the basic shape of the Carolina Capes, which extends along 400 kilometers of coastline. Global warming-related changes in storm (and therefore wave) patterns will likely cause this coastline pattern to adjust. In preliminary computer simulations, Murray, et. al. (in review) demonstrate coastline evolution accelerating by a factor of two to three times for a 5% increase in storminess and four to five times for a 10% increase in storminess after 200 years. Accelerated coastal change will undoubtedly place greater demand on shoreline stabilization techniques. Beach nourishment and seawalls ameliorate the effects shoreline erosion and migration have on homes and roads built on or near the beach. Beach nourishment rebuilds the beach using sand typically dredged from off-shore. Seawalls are hardened structures which prevent the shore from eroding farther landward. Scientific research on shoreline stabilization has focused on the local and short-term effects of these manipulations. In contrast, we study the longer-term (decades to centuries) and the larger scale (10's to 100's of kilometers) consequences of shoreline stabilization, coupling our experiments to scenarios of greatly-accelerated coastal migration induced by changes in global climate. Our modeling approach builds upon one-line coastal engineering models. It incorporates wave shadowing; protruding coastal features may shadow other parts of the coast from waves. Using the model, Ashton, et. al. (2001

  9. The Projection of Shoreline Based on the MIROC-ESM Climate Model along the Coast of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritphring, S.; Udo, K.

    2013-12-01

    Thailand is littoral country with the coastal zone including the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. They are economic important areas where 23 provinces are located with approximately 12 millions of population living in this areas. The coasts are characterized by geologic nature of landforms as sandy beach and dunes, coastal wetland, rocky coast, cliff coast and islands. Thailand's coast has been developed significantly since the last 3 decades; moreover, population growth and the demand for coastal living are ongoing pressures. Therefore, the potential impacts of climate change on existing coastal hazards are likely to increase. The impacts of sea level rise are probable to lead to the greater coastal inundation and erosion that may cause damage and loss to property, infrastructure and the environment. Although Thailand has approximately 2,700 km of shoreline, few researches have been conducted on coastal zone impacts and adaptations to climate change until now. Therefore, this study aimed to project the shoreline change along Thailand's coast due to the global sea level rise based on the climate scenario MIROC-ESM RCP4.5. The projection shoreline analysed by Bruun based on the assumption that in response to sea level rise, shore profiles would respond by acting to maintain their morphology relative to still water levels. It is a simple geometric model of nearshore profile evolution under rising sea level that is often assumed to work on all sandy shorelines. Moreover, the influences of land subsidence associated with sea level rise were taken into account in this study. The observed data as well as secondary data were used for modelling the 23 representative sandy beaches along the coast. Beach slope were observed as well as grain size sampling for model input. Wave buoys located along the coast were used for wave height and period detection. The results indicated shoreline retreat more than 2 m at the end of century when the land subsidence was not considered

  10. Hybrid morphological modelling of shoreline response to a detached breakwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils; Deigaard, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    to a model study of the principle correlations between evolving salients (spatial and temporal scales), the characteristic dimensions of the breakwater (distance to shore and alongshore length) and wave climate (wave height, normal and oblique wave incidence).The second version is applied to investigate...... in more detail the evolving morphology behind coastal breakwaters. It is demonstrated how the model is able to calculate the evolution of either salient or tombolo planforms, and furthermore it is shown that the results are in reasonable agreement with existing rules....

  11. Monitoring and modeling shoreline response due to shoreface nourishment on a high-energy coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, P. L.; Erikson, Li H.; Hansen, J. E.

    2009-01-01

    Shoreface nourishment can be an efficient technique to feed sediment into the littoral zone without the order of magnitude cost increase incurred by directly nourishing the beach. An erosion hot spot at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, USA, threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location, a new beneficial reuse plan was implemented in May 2005 for the sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. From 2005 to 2007, approximately 230,000 m of sand was placed annually at depths between 9 and 14 m, in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves could potentially feed sediment onto the section of beach experiencing critical erosion. The evolution of the disposal mound and adjacent beach were monitored with 12 multibeam bathymetric surveys, and over 40 high-resolution beach topographic surveys. In addition, sediment transport processes were investigated using sediment grab samples, acoustic Doppler profilers, and two separate models: a cross-shore profile model (UNIBEST-TC) and a coastal area model (Delft3D). The results of the monitoring and modeling demonstrate that the disposal mound may be effective in dissipating wave energy striking this vulnerable stretch of coast with negligible shadowing effects, but a positive shoreline response can only be achieved by placing the sediment in water depths less than 5 m. 

  12. Short-term shoreline evolution trend assessment: A case study in Glefe, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwadwo Y. Amoani

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The growing economic, social and ecological importance of coastal areas in Ghana has increased the challenges associated with sustainably managing the coastal resources. The coastal areas have become more prone and vulnerable to natural and human-made hazards such as coastal erosion. Shoreline retreat is recognised as a burgeoning threat because of global climate change and other anthropogenic activities that alter the natural processes sustaining beaches and coasts. This article describes an application of Real-time Kinematic-Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS technology and digitising of shorelines from orthophotos to detect and analyse the spatial changes as well as quantify the result of shoreline change at Glefe, a suburb of Accra in Ghana. Shoreline positions from a 2005 orthophoto and a 2011 RTK-GPS survey were overlaid in MATLAB (Matrix Laboratory and the average rate of change determined using the endpoint rate (EPR method. The shoreline change rate determined for Glefe between 2005 and 2011 was 1.2 m/a ± 1.3 m/a, indicating a relatively high rate of erosion. Outcomes of the case study can be used as a basis for a sustainable integrated management plan for the coastal area.

  13. A circulation modeling approach for evaluating the conditions for shoreline instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Jeffrey H.; Ashton, Andrew D.

    2007-01-01

    Analytical models predict the growth (instability) of shoreline salients when deep-water waves approach the coast from highly oblique angles, contrary to classical shoreline change models in which shoreline salients can only dissipate. Using the process-based wave, circulation, and sediment transport model Delft3D, we test this prediction for simulated bathymetric and wave characteristics approximating the open-ocean conditions at Duck, North Carolina. We consider two cases: a uniform coast with a varying wave approach angle, and a bathymetry with coastal salients and a single high-angle boundary wave condition. Incident wave conditions include a swell case with no wind and a wind-wave case with active local wave regeneration by wind. The uniform-coast tests predict transport maxima at oblique wave angles for both wave cases, indicating the potential for shoreline instabilities, similar to the analytical models. However, the critical angle for instability is much higher in the wind-wave case. Our tests with coastal salients agree with previous findings that a minimum salient length scale may be required for the instability effect to be active. Here, a salient with a longshore scale of 4 km results in transport divergence (erosion; no instability) at the salient crest while an 8 km salient results in transport convergence (accretion; instability) at the crest.

  14. Multidecadal Shoreline Evolution Due to Large-scale Beach Nourishment in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banno, M.; Takewaka, S.; Kuriyama, Y.

    2016-12-01

    A large-scale beach nourishment in the Netherlands, the Sand Engine, is getting attention as a new type of nourishment. As a similar case in Japan, here, we investigated morphological changes from 1961 to 2013 on the Hasaki coast, where approximately 50 million cubic meters of sands were dumped into the nearshore zone. The Hasaki coast, which is located in the eastern Japan facing the Pacific Ocean, has 16 km long sandy beach. From 1965 to 1977, approximately 50 million cubic meters of sediments were dumped into the nearshore zone on the north side of the beach for disposal of the earth and sand generated during the construction of the Kashima Port, which is an artificially-excavated port. A part of the shoreline-advanced area due to the dump was reclaimed for a land space. Therefore, in practice, approximately 26 million cubic meters of them was the volume of the sediment supply contributed to the morphological change. The volume is comparable to the nourishment of the Sand Engine, of which the volume is 21.5 million cubic meters. An increase in the sediment budgets due to the dump resulted in the mean shoreline advance of approximately 40 meters from 1969 to 1984. After that, although the advance was abated from 1984 to 1993, the shoreline began to advance again from 1993. As the result, the mean shoreline position in 2013 was located approximately 70 meters seaward compared to the position in 1961.

  15. Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Long-term sandline change

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline...

  16. Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Event-driven beach sandline change

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline...

  17. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 1274 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  18. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 878 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  19. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 2747 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  20. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 708 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  1. 北戴河新区沙坝工程后海滩演变预测%Prediction on shoreline evolution after bar nourishment project at New District, Beidaihe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾杰; 王佳元; 马悦; 匡翠萍; 张甲波

    2016-01-01

    通过对北戴河新区洋河-葡萄岛岸段剖面监测资料的分析,得到该段海滩沙坝建设前的演变特征。基于水动力和地形资料,采用GENESIS数值模型建立该岸段的岸线演变模型,使用实测的剖面资料进行验证,并预测了沙坝工程建成后3个月、6个月、1a、5a和10a的岸线演变。结果表明:沙坝建设及刚完成期间,海滩迅速增宽,后经季节变化调整,1 a逐渐形成新的动态平衡;长期来看,岸段总体呈现东冲西淤的状态,趋于平直。%Based on the analysis of profile measurements at Yang River-Putao Island coast at New District, Beidaihe, we obtained the natural evolution characteristics before the bar nourishment. A shoreline evolution model is established for the beach using GENESIS according to the observations of hydrodynamic and topography and verified against the shoreline data. Predictions on the shorelines after the bar nourishment are conducted by the model in terms of 3 months, 6 months, 1 a, 5 a and 10 a. Conclusions can be gained that the beach quickly increased in width during the construction period and after the bar nourishment then adjusted to the seasonal variations of hydrodynamic, and finally reached to a new equilibrium state in 1 a. In general, the shoreline appears as erosion in east part and deposition in west part and tends to straightness.

  2. Seawall Boundary Condition in Numerical Models of Shoreline Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-04-01

    o _ 11111 41 11u MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TESI CHART A NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS 196, A i TECHNICAL REPORT CERC-86-3 SEAWALL BOUNDARY CONDITION IN...numerical accu- racy. Engineering judgment must be exercised on a case-by-case basis to de- cide if a 24-hr time step will give acceptable physical

  3. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  4. Interferometric shoreline mapping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, C.G. van; Groot, J.S.; Vogelzang, J.; Dierikx-Platschorre, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Information on the location and evolution of shorelines is valuable. This information can be obtained from satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. Direct, unsupervised classifications methods give poor results because of the high noise level in SAR images and the scattering properties of (

  5. Predictive modeling of subsurface shoreline oil encounter probability from the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Zachary; Michel, Jacqueline

    2015-04-07

    To better understand the distribution of remaining lingering subsurface oil residues from the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) along the shorelines of Prince William Sound (PWS), AK, we revised previous modeling efforts to allow spatially explicit predictions of the distribution of subsurface oil. We used a set of pooled field data and predictor variables stored as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data to generate calibrated boosted tree models predicting the encounter probability of different categories of subsurface oil. The models demonstrated excellent predictive performance as evaluated by cross-validated performance statistics. While the average encounter probabilities at most shoreline locations are low across western PWS, clusters of shoreline locations with elevated encounter probabilities remain in the northern parts of the PWS, as well as more isolated locations. These results can be applied to estimate the location and amount of remaining oil, evaluate potential ongoing impacts, and guide remediation. This is the first application of quantitative machine-learning based modeling techniques in estimating the likelihood of ongoing, long-term shoreline oil persistence after a major oil spill.

  6. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; McQueen, J.; Tang, Y.; Langel, T.; McKeen, S.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2015-05-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large summertime ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. From 2008 to 2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008 to 2010 measurements of ambient ozone were conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI, and Muskegon, MI, up to six times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha, with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature and with greatest differences during evening and night. Concurrent 1-48 h forecasts from the CMAQ model in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were compared to ferry ozone measurements, shoreline DOAS measurements and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) station measurements. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day were explored showing non-uniformity in model bias over the lake. Model ozone bias was consistently high over the lake in comparison to land-based measurements, with highest biases for 25-48 h after initialization.

  7. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  8. Predicting Decades of Shoreline Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. D.; McNinch, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nearshore morphology models predicting storm-scale erosion have been in use for the past several decades. These tools have typically focused on a single time-scale, which limits the utilization. The present effort details the development of a physics-based numerical model that incorporates the cross-shore profile evolution as well as the alongshore variation at two distinct time-scales. The new method assumes that frequent (seconds) bed-level updates due to cross-shore transport gradients are necessary, while the longshore sediment balance can be accumulated numerically over times of about a day before the resultant bottom evolution is imposed. The new model remains consistent for use in a single storm as well as predictions for evolution over several decades. Some limitations exist on the longshore uniformity, and appropriate applications include shorelines with gentle variations in the alongshore conditions arising from nonuniform bathymetry or gradients in wave conditions. Sand transport predictions account for wave and current interaction, bedload and suspended load, and wave-related sediment transport. An initial comparison of 20 years of morphological evolution is conducted for Onslow Beach, NC, a gently-varying contiguous sandy barrier island. Shoreline position data are available for the 10 km of coast fronting the Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune. Wave conditions from the long-term WIS wave hindcast are used, while water levels are developed from the available NOAA tide gauge records. With a complete set of boundary and initial conditions, numerical model results constitute a complete 20 year history of transport and morphological evolution. The wave energy directional spectrum is nearly symmetric relative to the shore-normal transect, and although large sand transport is predicted to the North and to the South at times, a relatively small average residual longshore transport is computed. The measured morphological changes are mixed along the length of

  9. Hydrodynamic Modeling for Channel and Shoreline Stabilization at Rhodes Point, Smith Island, MD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    levels for Hurricane Sandy indicated a maximum water level of 5 ft (~1.5 m) along the western shore of Smith Island. 2.10 Performance of...Chesapeake Bay. Numerical results indicated Alternative 1, with a shore -connected north jetty nearly normal to the north shoreline at the channel...reducing wave energy inside the channel and along the shores . Alternative 2 with two parallel jetties provided similar wave energy reduction in the

  10. Evolution of Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antero, Michelle C.; Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The ERP industry has undergone dramatic changes over the past decades due to changing market demands, thereby creating new challenges and opportunities, which have to be managed by ERP vendors. This paper inquires into the necessary evolution of business models in a technology-intensive industry (e......, by adopting different value configurations to reflect the convergence of customers, suppliers and vendors....

  11. Wave and Beach Processes Modeling for Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay, Texas, Shoreline Erosion Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-08-01

    longshore sediment transport rate, Q , is related to Il as ( ) ( )ρ ρ = − −1 l s IQ g p (B-4) where: ρs = the density of the sediment in kilograms...Holocene to a warmer, drier condition significantly decreased the sediment supply of Texas coastal plain rivers. In Texas, only the Rio Grande and Brazos ...Figure 11, the M 1882-1974, P &M 1974-1982, and M 1974-1996 bar graph labels refer to average annual shoreline change rates over the listed intervals

  12. An empirical conceptual gully evolution model for channelled sea cliffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyland, Julian; Darby, Stephen E.

    2008-12-01

    Incised coastal channels are a specific form of incised channel that are found in locations where stream channels flowing to cliffed coasts have the excess energy required to cut down through the cliff to reach the outlet water body. The southern coast of the Isle of Wight, southern England, comprises soft cliffs that vary in height between 15 and 100 m and which are retreating at rates ≤ 1.5 m a - 1 , due to a combination of wave erosion and landslides. In several locations, river channels have cut through the cliffs to create deeply (≤ 45 m) incised gullies, known locally as 'Chines'. The Chines are unusual in that their formation is associated with dynamic shoreline encroachment during a period of rising sea-level, whereas existing models of incised channel evolution emphasise the significance of base level lowering. This paper develops a conceptual model of Chine evolution by applying space for time substitution methods using empirical data gathered from Chine channel surveys and remotely sensed data. The model identifies a sequence of evolutionary stages, which are classified based on a suite of morphometric indices and associated processes. The extent to which individual Chines are in a state of growth or decay is estimated by determining the relative rates of shoreline retreat and knickpoint recession, the former via analysis of historical aerial images and the latter through the use of a stream power erosion model.

  13. Evolution of Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antero, Michelle C.; Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The ERP industry has undergone dramatic changes over the past decades due to changing market demands, thereby creating new challenges and opportunities, which have to be managed by ERP vendors. This paper inquires into the necessary evolution of business models in a technology-intensive industry (e.......g., develop new offerings, engage in partnerships, and the utilize new sales channels). This paper draws from strategy process perspective to develop an evolutionary business model (EBM) framework that explains the components and processes involved. The framework is then applied to a longitudinal case study...... of SAP to explain how its success in a technology-intensive industry hinges on its ability to reconfigure its business model. The paper contributes to the extant literature on business models in two ways: first, by identifying and explaining the need for an evolutionary perspective; and second...

  14. Archaeological Site Vulnerability Modelling: The Influence of High Impact Storm Events on Models of Shoreline Erosion in the Western Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Rourke Michael J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the Inuvialuit archaeological record is situated along shorelines of the western Canadian Arctic. These coastal sites are at substantial risk of damage due to a number of geomorphological processes at work in the region. The identification of threatened heritage remains is critical in the Mackenzie Delta, where landscape changes are taking place at an increasingly rapid pace. This paper outlines some preliminary observations from a research program directed toward identifying vulnerable archaeological remains within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Coastal erosion rates have been calculated for over 280 km of the Kugmallit Bay shoreline, extending along the eastern extent of Richards Island and neighbouring areas of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Helicopter surveys conducted during the 2014 field season confirmed that areas exposed to heavy erosive forces in the past continue to erode at alarming rates. Some of the calculated rates, however, have proven far too conservative. An extreme period of erosion at Toker Point in the autumn of 2013 has yielded a prime example of how increasingly volatile weather patterns can influence shoreline erosion models. It has also provided a case with which to demonstrate the value of using more recent, shorter time-interval imagery in assessing impacts to cultural landscapes.

  15. Numerical prediction of shoreline adjacent to breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mahadevan, R.; Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

    Existing mathematical models for prediction of shoreline changes in the vicinity of a breakwater were reviewed The analytical and numerical results obtained from these models have been compared Under the numerical approach, two different implicit...

  16. A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: the South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Tiago M; Kokinou, Eleni; Zodiatis, George

    2014-09-15

    This study combines bathymetric, geomorphological, geological data and oil spill predictions to model the impact of oil spills in two accident scenarios from offshore Crete, Eastern Mediterranean. The aim is to present a new three-step method of use by emergency teams and local authorities in the assessment of shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills. The three-step method comprises: (1) real-time analyses of bathymetric, geomorphological, geological and oceanographic data; (2) oil dispersion simulations under known wind and sea current conditions; and (3) the compilation of final hazard maps based on information from (1) and (2) and on shoreline susceptibility data. The results in this paper show that zones of high to very-high susceptibility around the island of Crete are related to: (a) offshore bathymetric features, including the presence of offshore scarps and seamounts; (b) shoreline geology, and (c) the presence near the shore of sedimentary basins filled with unconsolidated deposits of high permeability. Oil spills, under particular weather and oceanographic conditions, may quickly spread and reach the shoreline 5-96 h after the initial accident. As a corollary of this work, we present the South Aegean region around Crete as a valid case-study for confined marine basins, narrow seaways, or interior seas around island groups.

  17. Development of 3D beach evolution model for sand nourishments and its application to morphodynamics around coastal structures

    OpenAIRE

    Kuroiwa, M.; Matsubara, Y.; Fujitani, H.; H. Mase

    2013-01-01

    A numerical model to predict three-dimensional (3D) beach evolution after sand nourishment was developed. The injection process of sand to near shoreline or offshore area was expressed by the sediment flux in the conservation equation associated with sediment transports and water depth changes, furthermore, sand dredging process was considered. In this study, First, computation of beach evolution around a coastal structure with and without nourishment was carried out. Secondly, the develop...

  18. Dose-response modelling with two agents: application to the bioassay of oil and shoreline cleaning agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murado, Miguel A; Vázquez, José A; Rial, Diego; Beiras, Ricardo

    2011-01-30

    Single and joint effects of hydrocarbons and a shoreline cleaning agent (SCA) were studied by measuring the inhibition of the larval growth of sea urchin. Different dosage methods of hydrophobic compounds were compared. The results obtained in the evaluation of CytoSol toxicity revealed that the method of variable dilution of water accommodated fraction (WAF) led to the more conservative toxicological approach. Regarding to Libyan oil, the use of DMSO as carrier allowed us the evaluation of its potential toxicity in comparison with the limitations imposed to the use of WAF method. A reparametrised form of the Weibull equation was slightly modified to be useful for dose-response analysis. This was the basis for modelling single sigmoid responses, which were used to simulate biphasic profiles with addition of effects and to describe both the concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) hypotheses. In all cases, its descriptive ability was graphically and statistically satisfactory. The IA model was the best option to explain the combined experimental responses obtained.

  19. Integrated geological-engineering model of Patrick Draw field and examples of similarities and differences among various shoreline barrier systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schatzinger, R.A.; Szpakiewicz, M.J.; Jackson, S.R.; Chang, M.M.; Sharma, B.; Tham, M.K.; Cheng, A.M.

    1992-04-01

    The Reservoir Assessment and Characterization Research Program at NIPER employs an interdisciplinary approach that focuses on the high priority reservoir class of shoreline barrier deposits to: (1) determine the problems specific to this class of reservoirs by identifying the reservoir heterogeneities that influence the movement and trapping of fluids; and (2) develop methods to characterize effectively this class of reservoirs to predict residual oil saturation (ROS) on interwell scales and improve prediction of the flow patterns of injected and produced fluids. Accurate descriptions of the spatial distribution of critical reservoir parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, pore geometry, mineralogy, and oil saturation) are essential for designing and implementing processes to improve sweep efficiency and thereby increase oil recovery. The methodologies and models developed in this program will, in the near- to mid-term, assist producers in the implementation of effective reservoir management strategies such as location of infill wells and selection of optimum enhanced oil recovery methods to maximize oil production from their reservoirs.

  20. Shoreline Evolution and Coastal Resiliency at Two Military Installations: Investigating the Potential for and Impacts of Loss of Protecting Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    15 4.7 Radius of Maximum Wind Model…………..………….…….……………………….16 4.8 RMW Model for Synthetic Storms ………………………….………..………………17 4.9... Radius of Maximum Wind SLR Sea-Level Rise SLOSH Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes vi Sr Strontium SST Sea Surface Temperature...sediments are buried, beyond the reach of sunlight, a charge can accumulate through interaction with cosmic rays and natural radiation. If samples are

  1. TMDs: Evolution, modeling, precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Alesio Umberto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The factorization theorem for qT spectra in Drell-Yan processes, boson production and semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering allows for the determination of the non-perturbative parts of transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions. Here we discuss the fit of Drell-Yan and Z-production data using the transverse momentum dependent formalism and the resummation of the evolution kernel. We find a good theoretical stability of the results and a final χ2/points ≲ 1. We show how the fixing of the non-perturbative pieces of the evolution can be used to make predictions at present and future colliders.

  2. TMDs: Evolution, modeling, precision

    CERN Document Server

    D'Alesio, Umberto; Melis, Stefano; Scimemi, Ignazio

    2014-01-01

    The factorization theorem for $q_T$ spectra in Drell-Yan processes, boson production and semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering allows for the determination of the non-perturbative parts of transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions. Here we discuss the fit of Drell-Yan and $Z$-production data using the transverse momentum dependent formalism and the resummation of the evolution kernel. We find a good theoretical stability of the results and a final $\\chi^2/{\\rm points}\\lesssim 1$. We show how the fixing of the non-perturbative pieces of the evolution can be used to make predictions at present and future colliders.

  3. Evolution of progradation/erosion along the French Guiana mangrove coast: comparison of mapped shorelines since the 18th century with Holocene data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plaziat, J.C.; Augustinus, P.G.E.F.

    2004-01-01

    The problem in mapping the mangrove shoreline of French Guiana are reviewed. The present variability of the coastline due to the shifting mudbank with Allicellllia mangroves on their shoreface-attached upper fringe is extended to the historical period two and a half centuries ago, by mean of ancient

  4. NOAA Shoreline Website

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The original intent of this site was to alleviate confusion about shorelines generated by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agencies. However,...

  5. Landscape Evolution Modelling-LAPSUS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baartman, J. E. M.; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Schoorl, J. M.; Claessens, L.; Viveen, W.; Gorp, W. van; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-07-01

    Landscape evolution modelling can make the consequences of landscape evolution hypotheses explicit and theoretically allows for their falsification and improvement. ideally, landscape evolution models (LEMs) combine the results of all relevant landscape forming processes into an ever-adapting digital landscape (e.g. DEM). These processes may act on different spatial and temporal scales. LAPSUS is such a LEM. Processes that have in different studies been included in LAPSUS are water erosion and deposition, landslide activity, creep, solidification, weathering, tectonics and tillage. Process descriptions are as simple and generic as possible, ensuring wide applicability. (Author) 25 refs.

  6. 基于EFDC模型的三白荡岸线生态设计%Shoreline Eco-design of Sanbai Lake Based on EFDC Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    常进; 陈星; 张其成; 王卫平; 彭焱梅; 王君诺

    2013-01-01

    基于EFDC模型,模拟三白荡在现状和岸线形态调整条件下不同风向、不同风速的流场模式,并对调整后的湖泊岸线形态进行分析验证,从而提出在确定护岸方案时,应充分考虑生态性与景观性,并结合周边土地利用情况,对三白荡护坡进行分段设计,以构建其独特的滨水景观.%Under different wind direction and velocity,the EFDC model is applied to simulate the flow field mode of Sanbai Lake in terms of its current situation and shoreline's adjustment condition.And then the shoreline morphology after adjustment is validated.On the basis of shoreline morphology adjustment,it should fully consider the ecological of the revetment design and the surrounding land use to make segmented design of the Sanbai Lake revetment and build its unique waterfront landscape.

  7. Vector shorelines and associated shoreline change rates derived from Lidar and aerial imagery for Dauphin Island, Alabama: 1940-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Rachel; Nelson, Paul R.; Long, Joseph W.; Smith, Christopher G.

    2017-01-01

    In support of studies and assessments of barrier island evolution in the Gulf of Mexico, rates of shoreline change for Dauphin Island, Alabama, were calculated using two different shoreline proxy datasets with a total temporal span of 75 years.  Mean High Water line (MHW) shorelines were generated from 14 lidar datasets from 1998 to 2014, and Wet Dry Line (WDL) shorelines were digitized from ten sets of georeferenced aerial images from 1940 to 2015. Rates of change for the open-ocean (south-facing) and back-barrier (north-facing) coast were calculated for three groups of shorelines:  MHW (lidar), WDL (aerial) and MHW and WDL shorelines combined. Calculations were performed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.3, an ArcGIS extension developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (Thieler and others, 2009).  Thieler, E.R., Himmelstoss, E.A., Zichichi, J.L., and Ergul, Ayhan, 2009, Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0—An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1278, https://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/DSAS/version4/.

  8. Modelling the fate of marine debris along a complex shoreline: Lessons from the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchell, K.; Grech, A.; Schlaefer, J.; Andutta, F. P.; Lambrechts, J.; Wolanski, E.; Hamann, M.

    2015-12-01

    The accumulation of floating anthropogenic debris in marine and coastal areas has environmental, economic, aesthetic, and human health impacts. Until now, modelling the transport of such debris has largely been restricted to the large-scales of open seas. We used oceanographic modelling to identify potential sites of debris accumulation along a rugged coastline with headlands, islands, rocky coasts and beaches. Our study site was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area that has an emerging problem with debris accumulation. We found that the classical techniques of modelling the transport of floating debris models are only moderately successful due to a number of unknowns or assumptions, such as the value of the wind drift coefficient, the variability of the oceanic forcing and of the wind, the resuspension of some floating debris by waves, and the poorly known relative contribution of floating debris from urban rivers and commercial and recreational shipping. Nevertheless the model was successful in reproducing a number of observations such as the existence of hot spots of accumulation. The orientation of beaches to the prevailing wind direction affected the accumulation rate of debris. The wind drift coefficient and the exact timing of the release of the debris at sea affected little the movement of debris originating from rivers but it affected measurably that of debris originating from ships. It was thus possible to produce local hotspot maps for floating debris, especially those originating from rivers. Such modelling can be used to inform local management decisions, and it also identifies likely priority research areas to more reliably predict the trajectory and landing points of floating debris.

  9. Modelling river history and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, T J; Van de Wiel, M J

    2012-05-13

    Over the last few decades, a suite of numerical models has been developed for studying river history and evolution that is almost as diverse as the subject of river history itself. A distinction can be made between landscape evolution models (LEMs), alluvial architecture models, meander models, cellular models and computational fluid dynamics models. Although these models share some similarities, there also are notable differences between them, which make them more or less suitable for simulating particular aspects of river history and evolution. LEMs embrace entire drainage basins at the price of detail; alluvial architecture models simulate sedimentary facies but oversimplify flow characteristics; and computational fluid dynamics models have to assume a fixed channel form. While all these models have helped us to predict erosion and depositional processes as well as fluvial landscape evolution, some areas of prediction are likely to remain limited and short-term owing to the often nonlinear response of fluvial systems. Nevertheless, progress in model algorithms, computing and field data capture will lead to greater integration between these approaches and thus the ability to interpret river history more comprehensively.

  10. Reactive modelling of 1,2-DCA and DOC near the shoreline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombani, N; Pantano, A; Mastrocicco, M; Petitta, M

    2014-11-15

    1,2-Dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) was found to be the most abundant compound among chlorinated hydrocarbons detected in a petrochemical plant in southern Italy. This site is located near the coastline, and it is set above an unconfined coastal aquifer, where seawater intrusion is present. The presence of organic and inorganic contaminants at this site has required the implementation of remediation strategies, consisting of pumping wells (hydraulic barrier) and a horizontal flow barrier. The purpose of this work was to assess the influence of salt water intrusion on the degradation rate of 1,2-DCA. This was done on a three-dimensional domain relative to a limited portion of a well characterized field site, accounting for density-dependent flow and reactive transport modelling of 1,2-DCA and Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC). The modelling procedure was performed employing SEAWAT-4.0 and PHT3D, to reproduce the complex three-dimensional flow and transport domain. In order to determine the fate of 1,2-DCA, detailed field investigations provided intensive depth profile information. Different, kinetically controlled degradation rates were simulated to explain the observed, selective degradation of pollutants in groundwater. Calibration of the model was accomplished by comparison with the two different sets of measurements obtained from the MLS devices and from pumping wells. With the calibrated model, it was possible to distinguish between dispersive non-reactive processes and bacterially mediated reactions. In the non-reactive model, 1,2-DCA sorption was simulated using linear sorption coefficient determined with field data and 1,2-DCA degradation was simulated using a first order decay coefficient using literature data as initial guess. Finally, on the reactive transport model, where a two-step approach with partial equilibrium approach was implemented, the effects of neglecting the cation exchange capacity, omitting density-dependent flow, and refining the vertical

  11. Modeling Protein Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Richard; Pollock, David

    The study of biology is fundamentally different from many other scientific pursuits, such as geology or astrophysics. This difference stems from the ubiquitous questions that arise about function and purpose. These are questions concerning why biological objects operate the way they do: what is the function of a polymerase? What is the role of the immune system? No one, aside from the most dedicated anthropist or interventionist theist, would attempt to determine the purpose of the earth's mantle or the function of a binary star. Among the sciences, it is only biology in which the details of what an object does can be said to be part of the reason for its existence. This is because the process of evolution is capable of improving an object to better carry out a function; that is, it adapts an object within the constraints of mechanics and history (i.e., what has come before). Thus, the ultimate basis of these biological questions is the process of evolution; generally, the function of an enzyme, cell type, organ, system, or trait is the thing that it does that contributes to the fitness (i.e., reproductive success) of the organism of which it is a part or characteristic. Our investigations cannot escape the simple fact that all things in biology (including ourselves) are, ultimately, the result of an evolutionary process.

  12. Shoreline dissipation of infragravity waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bakker, A. T. M.; Tissier, M. F. S.; Ruessink, B. G.

    2014-01-01

    Infragravity waves (0.005-0.05 Hz) have recently been observed to dissipate a large part of their energy in the short-wave (0.05-1 Hz) surf zone, however, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. Here, we analyse two new field data sets of near-bed pressure and velocity at up to 13 cross-shore locations in ≲2.5 m depth on a ≈1:80 and a ≈1:30 sloping beach to quantify infragravity-wave dissipation close to the shoreline and to identify the underlying dissipation mechanism. A frequency-domain Complex Eigenfunction analysis demonstrated that infragravity-wave dissipation was frequency dependent. Infragravity waves with a frequency larger than ≈0.0167-0.0245 Hz were predominantly onshore progressive, indicative of strong dissipation of the incoming infragravity waves. Instead, waves with a lower frequency showed the classic picture of cross-shore standing waves with minimal dissipation. Bulk infragravity reflection coefficients at the shallowest position (water depth ≈0.7 m) were well below 1 (≈0.20), implying that considerable dissipation took place close to the shoreline. We hypothesise that for our data sets infragravity-wave breaking is the dominant dissipation mechanism close to the shoreline, because the reflection coefficient depends on a normalised bed slope, with the higher infragravity frequencies in the mild-sloping regime where breaking is known to dominate dissipation. Additional numerical modelling indicates that, close to the shoreline of a 1:80 beach, bottom friction contributes to infragravity-wave dissipation to a limited extent, but that non-linear transfer of infragravity energy back to sea-swell frequencies is unimportant.

  13. Shoreline changes in and around the Thubon River mouth, Central Vietnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mau, L.D.; Nayak, G.N.; SanilKumar, V.

    Application of GENESIS model (GENEralized model for Simulating Shoreline change) for studying the shoreline change in and around the Thubon River Mouth, Central Vietnam is presented in this paper The input parameters used are the near shore wave...

  14. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and air quality forecast models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Cleary

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Air quality forecast models typically predict large ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the National Air Quality Forecast System. From 2008–2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008–2010 measurements of ambient ozone conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI and Muskegon, MI up to 6 times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature but with highest differences during evening and night. Concurrent ozone forecast images from National Weather System's National Air Quality Forecast System in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were saved over the ferry ozone sampling period in 2009. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. The model 1 and 8 h ozone mean biases were both 12 ppb higher than observed ozone, and maximum daily 1 h ozone mean bias was 10 ppb, indicating substantial ozone over-prediction over water. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day or month were also explored showing non-uniformity in model bias. Extreme ozone events were predicted by the model but not observed by ferry measurements.

  15. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and air quality forecast models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; Langel, T.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2014-09-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the National Air Quality Forecast System. From 2008-2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008-2010 measurements of ambient ozone conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI and Muskegon, MI up to 6 times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature but with highest differences during evening and night. Concurrent ozone forecast images from National Weather System's National Air Quality Forecast System in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were saved over the ferry ozone sampling period in 2009. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. The model 1 and 8 h ozone mean biases were both 12 ppb higher than observed ozone, and maximum daily 1 h ozone mean bias was 10 ppb, indicating substantial ozone over-prediction over water. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day or month were also explored showing non-uniformity in model bias. Extreme ozone events were predicted by the model but not observed by ferry measurements.

  16. Investigating Nonlinear Shoreline Multiperiod Change from Orthophoto Map Information by Using a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tienfuan Kerh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme weather and overdevelopment may cause some coastal areas to exhibit erosion problems, which in turn may contribute to creating disasters of varying scale, particularly in regions comprising islands. This study used aerial survey information from three periods (1990, 2001, and 2010 and used graphical software to establish the spatial data of six beaches surrounding the island of Taiwan. An overlaying technique was then implemented to compare the sandy area of each beach in the aforementioned study periods. In addition, an artificial neural network model was developed based on available digitised coordinates for predicting coastline variation for 2015 and 2020. An onsite investigation was performed using a global positioning system for comparing the beaches. The results revealed that two beaches from this study may have experienced significant changes in total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method and the result of this study may provide a valuable reference in follow-up research and applications.

  17. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  18. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  19. ABC model and floral evolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Guisheng; MENG Zheng; KONG Hongzhi; CHEN Zhiduan; LU Anming

    2003-01-01

    The paper introduces the classical ABC model of floral development and thereafter ABCD, ABCDE and quartet models, and presents achievements in the studies on floral evolution such as the improved understanding on the relationship of reproductive organs between gnetophytes and angiosperms, new results in perianth evolution and identified homology of floral organs between dicots and monocots. The evo-devo studies on plant taxa at different evolutionary levels are useful to better understanding the homology of floral organs, and to clarifying the mysteries of the origin and subsequent diversification of flowers.

  20. USGS Northern California Shoreline Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline...

  1. Automated Large-Scale Shoreline Variability Analysis From Video

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearre, N. S.

    2006-12-01

    Land-based video has been used to quantify changes in nearshore conditions for over twenty years. By combining the ability to track rapid, short-term shoreline change and changes associated with longer term or seasonal processes, video has proved to be a cost effective and versatile tool for coastal science. Previous video-based studies of shoreline change have typically examined the position of the shoreline along a small number of cross-shore lines as a proxy for the continuous coast. The goal of this study is twofold: (1) to further develop automated shoreline extraction algorithms for continuous shorelines, and (2) to track the evolution of a nourishment project at Rehoboth Beach, DE that was concluded in June 2005. Seven cameras are situated approximately 30 meters above mean sea level and 70 meters from the shoreline. Time exposure and variance images are captured hourly during daylight and transferred to a local processing computer. After correcting for lens distortion and geo-rectifying to a shore-normal coordinate system, the images are merged to form a composite planform image of 6 km of coast. Automated extraction algorithms establish shoreline and breaker positions throughout a tidal cycle on a daily basis. Short and long term variability in the daily shoreline will be characterized using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Periodic sediment volume information will be extracted by incorporating the results of monthly ground-based LIDAR surveys and by correlating the hourly shorelines to the corresponding tide level under conditions with minimal wave activity. The Delaware coast in the area downdrift of the nourishment site is intermittently interrupted by short groins. An Even/Odd analysis of the shoreline response around these groins will be performed. The impact of groins on the sediment volume transport along the coast during periods of accretive and erosive conditions will be discussed. [This work is being supported by DNREC and the

  2. Short to long-term evolution of the shoreline and the subaerial sand beach driven by extreme forcings : Wan-Tzu-Liao, Taïwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campmas, Lucie; Bouchette, Frederic; Meulé, Samuel; Sous, Damien; Liou, Jiing-Yih; Leroux-Mallouf, Romain; Sabatier, François; Hwung, Hwung-Hweng

    2015-04-01

    This study aims at investigating the interactions between wave conditions, water level and morphology of a sand barrier driven by paroxysmal conditions over instantaneous swash event, storm event, monsoon/typhoons seasons and decadal time scales. In the framework of the KUN-SHEN project, 7 months of monitoring (2011-2012) provided 20 topobathymetric surveys (from the subtidal zone to the back-barrier) and acquisitions of offshore, nearshore and shallow water hydrodynamics including velocity profiling, free surface measurement and absolute pressure. Offshore waves were extracted at Cigu buoy (18 m of water depth). Nearshore waves were acquired from the current profiler deployed 400 m off the coast in 4 m of water depth and water level on the subaerial beach were acquired from pressure sensors deployed from the subtidal zone to the dune crest. Morphologic changes of the emerged beach were monitored using D-GPS each week during the winter monsoon season and just before and after each event during the summer typhoons season. The long-term shoreline changes (1993-2009) of the sand barrier is based on aerial photographs and satellites images. The short-term study focus on the sand bed elevation changes associated with individual swash events during the most energetic storm recorded. During this Talim tropical storm (offshore significant wave height up to 10.3 m with period about 14.6 s), pressure sensors deployed in the subaerial beach display a sand bed nourishment about +3.02 cm/h during the storm rising. The numerous swash-swash interactions during the falling period of the storm appear more erosive. Morphological changes of Talim storm in the whole emerged beach included 6.7 m of dunefoot retreat and a sand transfer from a dune breach to wash-over deposits in the lagoon. Additionally, the foreshore was nourished +2261 m3 +/-268 m3 as well as the whole sand barrier (+1920 m3 +/-1071 m3). The summer season of typhoons appears to be an accretive period (3556 m3 +/-1071

  3. New model systems for experimental evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sinéad

    2013-07-01

    Microbial experimental evolution uses a few well-characterized model systems to answer fundamental questions about how evolution works. This special section highlights novel model systems for experimental evolution, with a focus on marine model systems that can be used to understand evolutionary responses to global change in the oceans.

  4. Integrating data types to enhance shoreline change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, J.; Henderson, R.; Plant, N. G.; Nelson, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Shorelines represent the variable boundary between terrestrial and marine environments. Assessment of geographic and temporal variability in shoreline position and related variability in shoreline change rates are an important part of studies and applications related to impacts from sea-level rise and storms. The results from these assessments are used to quantify future ecosystem services and coastal resilience and guide selection of appropriate coastal restoration and protection designs. But existing assessments typically fail to incorporate all available shoreline observations because they are derived from multiple data types and have different or unknown biases and uncertainties. Shoreline-change research and assessments often focus on either the long-term trajectory using sparse data over multiple decades or shorter-term evolution using data collected more frequently but over a shorter period of time. The combination of data collected with significantly different temporal resolution is not often considered. Also, differences in the definition of the shoreline metric itself can occur, whether using a single or multiple data source(s), due to variation the signal being detected in the data (e.g. instantaneous land/water interface, swash zone, wrack line, or topographic contours). Previous studies have not explored whether more robust shoreline change assessments are possible if all available data are utilized and all uncertainties are considered. In this study, we test the hypothesis that incorporating all available shoreline data will lead to both improved historical assessments and enhance the predictive capability of shoreline-change forecasts. Using over 250 observations of shoreline position at Dauphin Island, Alabama over the last century, we compare shoreline-change rates derived from individual data sources (airborne lidar, satellite, aerial photographs) with an assessment using the combination of all available data. Biases or simple uncertainties in the

  5. Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

  6. A shoreline sand wave formation event at Dungeness, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falqués, A.; Arriaga, J.; Francesca, R.; Eddie, C.

    2016-12-01

    Alongshore rhythmic morphological patterns at different length scales are quite common along sandy beaches. Well known examples are megacusps and crescentic bars/rip channel systems with alongshore wavelengths ˜ 100-1000 m. At larger scales (˜ 1-10 km or more) there are the km-scale shoreline sand waves. During the last two decades there has been much research to unravel the origin of such intriguing patterns and to get insight into their dynamics. The hypothesis that they emerge out of positive feedbacks between hydrodynamics and morphology has been amply confirmed by mathematical modelling. In particular, the potential role of high-angle waves (large incidence angles with respect to shore) in driving km-scale shoreline sand waves has been investigated (Ashton et al., 2001, van den Berg et al., 2012). However, direct tests with nature are very difficult and are inexistent to our knowledge. This is so because these tests would require detailed measurements of the bathymetry and the wave conditions at the moment of their formation from a featureless morphology. Dungeness beach is located at the English shore of the Dover straight facing northeast part of a cuspate foreland. It is a gravel beach (D50=6-10 mm) quite steep until 1 m depth (β≈0.13) and gentle until 3 m depth (β≈0.005) without shore-parallel bars. Bathymetric maps of this beach are available since 2007 and the wave conditions are also known from a wave buoy in 43 m depth. The shorelines from 2007 until 2013 show some subtle and evolving undulations. But remarkably, in 2014 a series of two undulations develop with a wavelength of about 0.5 km. They persist until 2016 and migrate to the N. This is a clear formation event that provides a unique opportunity to compare observations with the outputs of morphodynamic models for the initial formation of such features. Therefore, the objectives are: 1) Characterize the bathymetric evolution and the wave conditions prior/during the formation event, 2) run

  7. The fast debris evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, H. G.; Swinerd, G. G.; Newland, R. J.; Saunders, A.

    2009-09-01

    The 'particles-in-a-box' (PIB) model introduced by Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508-513, 1992.] removed the need for computer-intensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allows the stability of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment to be tested by a straightforward analysis of the equation's coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to investigate more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling and to develop a suite of educational tools, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FADE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects ⩾10 cm are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508-513, 1992.] based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of the FADE model equations can be inferred from the outputs of future projections produced by high-fidelity models, such as the DAMAGE model. The FADE model has been implemented as a client-side, web-based service using JavaScript embedded within a HTML document. Due to the simple nature of the algorithm, FADE can deliver the results of future projections immediately in a graphical format, with complete user-control over key simulation parameters. Historical and future projections for the ⩾10 cm LEO debris environment under a variety of different scenarios are possible, including business as usual, no future launches, post-mission disposal and remediation. A selection of results is presented with comparisons with predictions made using the DAMAGE environment model

  8. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    The influence of offshore wind farms on the wave conditions and impact on shoreline development is studied in a generic set-up of a coast and a shoreline. The objective was to estimate the impact of a typical sized offshore wind farm on a shoreline in a high wave energetic environment. Especially...... the shoreline’s sensitivity to the distance from the OWF to the shoreline was studied. The effect of the reduced wind speed inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm was incorporated in a parameterized way in a spectral wind wave model. The shoreline impact was studied with a one-line model....

  9. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Robert Thieler, E.; Passeri, Davina L.

    2016-05-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not sufficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a variable in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncertainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  10. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  11. Modeling plan-form deltaic response to changes in fluvial sediment supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nienhuis, J.H.; Ashton, A.D.; Roos, P.C.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H.; Giosan, L.; Kranenburg, W.M.; Horstman, E.M.; Wijnberg, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the effects of changes in fluvial sediment supply on the plan-form shape of wave-dominated deltas. We apply a one-line numerical shoreline model to calculate shoreline evolution after (I) elimination and (II) time-periodic variation of fluvial input. Model results suggest four

  12. Assessing the Potential to Operationalize Shoreline Sensitivity Mapping: Classifying Multiple Wide Fine Quadrature Polarized RADARSAT-2 and Landsat 5 Scenes with a Single Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Banks

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The Random Forest algorithm was used to classify 86 Wide Fine Quadrature Polarized RADARSAT-2 scenes, five Landsat 5 scenes, and a Digital Elevation Model covering an area approximately 81,000 km2 in size, and representing the entirety of Dease Strait, Coronation Gulf and Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut. The focus of this research was to assess the potential to operationalize shoreline sensitivity mapping to inform oil spill response and contingency planning. The impact of varying the training sample size and reducing model data load were evaluated. Results showed that acceptable accuracies could be achieved with relatively few training samples, but that higher accuracies and greater probabilities of correct class assignment were observed with larger sample sizes. Additionally, the number of inputs to the model could be greatly reduced without impacting overall performance. Optimized models reached independent accuracies of 91% for seven land cover types, and classification probabilities between 0.77 and 0.98 (values for latter represent per-class averages generated from independent validation sites. Mixed results were observed when assessing the potential for remote predictive mapping by simulating transferability of the model to scenes without training data.

  13. Simple models of evolution and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, M E J

    1999-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction to the mathematical modeling of large-scale biological evolution and extinction. We give three examples of simple models in this field: the coevolutionary avalanche model of Bak and Sneppen, the environmental stress model of Newman, and the increasing fitness model of Sibani, Schmidt, and Alstrom. We describe the features of real evolution which these models are intended to explain and compare the results of simulations against data drawn from the fossil record.

  14. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea level rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Summary: This dataset contains projections of shoreline positions and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise. Projections were made using...

  15. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea level rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Summary: This dataset contains projections of shoreline positions and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise. Projections were made using...

  16. Simple model for river network evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leheny, R.L. [The James Franck Institute and The Department of Physics, The University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (United States)

    1995-11-01

    We simulate the evolution of a drainage basin by erosion from precipitation and avalanching on hillslopes. The avalanches create a competition in growth between neighboring basins and play the central role in driving the evolution. The simulated landscapes form drainage systems that share many qualitative features with Glock`s model for natural network evolution and maintain statistical properties that characterize real river networks. We also present results from a second model with a modified, mass conserving avalanche scheme. Although the terrains from these two models are qualitatively dissimilar, their drainage networks share the same general evolution and statistical features.

  17. Model for the evolution of river networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leheny, R.L.; Nagel, S.R. (The James Franck Institute and the Department of Physics, The University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (United States))

    1993-08-30

    We have developed a model, which includes the effects of erosion both from precipitation and from avalanching of soil on steep slopes, to simulate the formation and evolution of river networks. The avalanches provide a mechanism for competition in growth between neighboring river basins. The changing morphology follows many of the characteristics of evolution set forth by Glock. We find that during evolution the model maintains the statistical characteristics measured in natural river systems.

  18. USGS Map service: National Shoreline Change - Historic Shorelines by State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — There are critical needs for a nationwide compilation of reliable shoreline data. To meet these needs, the USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital...

  19. USGS Map service: National Shoreline Change - Historic Shorelines by State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — There are critical needs for a nationwide compilation of reliable shoreline data. To meet these needs, the USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital...

  20. An Evolution Model of Space Debris Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Various types of models including engineering models andevolution models have been developed to understand space debris environment since 1960s. Evolution model, consisting of a set of supporting models such as Launch Model, Breakup Model and Atmosphere Model, can reliably predicts the evolution of space debris environment. Of these supporting models, Breakup Model is employed to describe the distribution of debris and debris cloud during a explosion or collision case which is one of the main factors affecting the amount of total space debris. An analytical orbit debris environment model referred to as the “Particles-In-Boxes" model has been introduced. By regarding the orbit debris as the freedom particles running in the huge volume, the sources and sinks mechanism is established. Then the PIB model is expanded to the case of multiple-species in multiple-tier system. Combined with breakup model, the evolution of orbit debris environment is predicted.

  1. Shoreline instability under low-angle wave incidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Idier, D.; Falqués, A.; Ruessink, B.G.; Garnier, R.

    2011-01-01

    The growth of megacusps as shoreline instabilities is investigated by examining the coupling between wave transformation in the shoaling zone, longshore transport in the surf zone, cross-shore transport, and morphological evolution. This coupling is known to drive a potential positive feedback in ca

  2. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  3. County Boundaries with Shorelines (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — County boundaries with shorelines cut in (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an extract of selected geographic and...

  4. NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products from the Remote Sensing Division are primarily for application to the nautical charts produced by NOAA's Office of Coast...

  5. Ice-Ridge Pile Up and the Genesis of Martian "Shorelines"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, C. J.; Tulaczyk, S.; Asphaug, E.; Kraal, E. R.; Moore, J.

    2005-01-01

    Unique geomorphologic features such as basin terraces exhibiting topographic continuity have been found within several Martian craters as shown in Viking, MOC, and THEMIS images. These features, showing similarity to terrestrial shorelines, have been mapped and cataloged with significant effort [1]. Currently, open wave action on the surface of paleolakes has been hypothesized as the geomorphologic agent responsible for the generation of these features [2]. As consequence, feature interpretations, including shorelines, wave-cut benches, and bars are, befittingly, lacustrine. Because such interpretations and their formation mechanisms have profound implications for the climate and potential biological history of Mars, confidence is crucial. The insight acquired through linked quantitative modeling of geomorphologic agents and processes is key to accurately interpreting these features. In this vein, recent studies [3,4] involving the water wave energy in theoretical open water basins on Mars show minimal erosional effects due to water waves under Martian conditions. Consequently, sub-glacial lake flattens the surface, produces a local velocity increase over the lake, and creates a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction [11]. These consequences of ice flow are observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica an excellent Martian analogue [11]. Martian observations include reticulate terrain exhibiting sharp inter-connected ridges speculated to reflect the deposition and reworking of ice blocks at the periphery of ice-covered lakes throughout Hellas [12]. Our model determines to what extent ice, a terrestrial geomorphologic agent, can alter the Martian landscape. Method: We study the evolution of crater ice plugs as the formation mechanism of surface features frequently identified as shorelines. In particular, we perform model integrations involving parameters such as ice slope and purity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, crater shape and composition, and an

  6. Modelling the Holocene Evolution of a Drift-dominated Alluvial-fan Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, M.; Dickson, M.; Coco, G.

    2007-12-01

    A numerical model is being developed to simulate shore evolution along an alluvial fan coast over the Holocene. The alluvial fan of the Waitaki River, on the east coast of New Zealand's South Island, was built by Pleistocene glacial advances but has been eroded back by waves over recent millennia. The retreat has left a cliffed shore fronted by a narrow beach of mixed sand and gravel and a gently sloping seabed with only a thin, patchy sand cover over the Pleistocene substrate. The study motivation is to examine the sensitivity of shoreline movements in this setting to wave-climate change, sea-level rise, and river sediment supplies. The modelling couples a profile evolution model with a shoreline model. The profile evolution model is operational and is driven by a series of coupled process models which include seabed scour, berm construction during normal waves, berm overtopping and subsequent beach-stripping and scour of the exposed substrate and cliff-toe notching by storm waves, gravity failure of the cliffs and talus construction, and beach sediment abrasion. Negative feedback regulates the rate of cliff erosion through the protection provided by the new material added into the beach from the eroding cliffs and substrate. The model is forced by two wave conditions: a normal swell and a randomly-varying storm wave. These operate for proportions of the yearly time step. The model was begun on a sloping fan surface inundated by the last stages of post-glacial sea-level rise (8000 yr BP). The initial response is for rapid growth of a gravel beach ridge fed by wave-excavation of the nearshore. As the nearshore profile nears equilibrium with the wave climate, the onshore feed wanes below the abrasion rate and the beach ridge loses volume. As sea level rises the beach ridge moves upward and landward, but its capacity to do so is limited by the rate of sediment feed from the nearshore. When the beach size reduces to a threshold at which storm waves periodically

  7. NOAA Composite Shoreline - Vectorized Shoreline Derived From NOAA-NOS Coastal Survey Maps and Aerial Photographs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Composite Shoreline is primarily intended for high-resolution cartographic representation of the shoreline. It is a high-resolution vector shoreline based...

  8. Evolving Shoreline Change Rates Along the US Pacific Northwest Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Allan, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    interannual, to further investigate coastal change hazards along the Oregon coast. The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has surveyed several sites along Oregon's coastline at least annually since approximately the late 1990s. Shoreline positions are obtained either from beach profiles collected with Real Time Kinematic Differential GPS (RTK-DGPS) technology or extracted from lidar data. For consistency, we analyze shoreline change at the same transect locations as those used in the National Assessment, with the same analysis software, the USGS Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) within ArcGIS. With this approach, our study directly compares change rates at three distinct time scales yielding new insights into Oregon's shoreline evolution.

  9. An Evaluation Model of River Port Shoreline and Its Applications%港口岸线评价模型及其应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨大鸣; 王呈方; 张培林

    2003-01-01

    文中提出的港口岸线分类定级方法,是按多目标决策方法对分段岸线进行定量化分析,得出每段岸线的综合满意度,然后利用模糊聚类的方法对岸线进行分类定级,以便在定量化分类定级的基础上进行岸线性质和功能评价.%The categorization and grading of river port shorelines presented in this article is based upon the quantified analysis acciording to the method of multi-objective decision making on divisions of river shorelines.jAfter obtaining a Synthetic degree of satisfaction with each division of river shorelines,then fuzzy cluster analysis is applied for the categorization and grading of the divisions of river shorelines in an effort to make an evaluation of the qualities and functions of river shorelines based on quantified categorization and grading.

  10. SYNTHETIC AGB EVOLUTION .1. A NEW MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GROENEWEGEN, MAT; DEJONG, T

    1993-01-01

    We have constructed a model to calculate in a synthetic way the evolution of stars on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). The evolution is started at the first thermal pulse (TP) and is terminated when the envelope mass has been lost due to mass loss or when the core mass reaches the Chandrasekhar ma

  11. Markov Model Applied to Gene Evolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    季星来; 孙之荣

    2001-01-01

    The study of nucleotide substitution is very important both to our understanding of gene evolution and to reliable estimation of phylogenetic relationships. In this paper nucleotide substitution is assumed to be random and the Markov model is applied to the study of the evolution of genes. Then a non-linear optimization approach is proposed for estimating substitution in real sequences. This substitution is called the "Nucleotide State Transfer Matrix". One of the most important conclusions from this work is that gene sequence evolution conforms to the Markov process. Also, some theoretical evidences for random evolution are given from energy analysis of DNA replication.

  12. Structure Model of Urban Traffic System Evolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Ke-jin; ZHANG Dian-ye

    2008-01-01

    A structure model of urban traffic system evolution is built based on the analysis of the factors influencing the system evolution and the hierarchy between the factors. Then the influencing degrees of the factors are quantificationally analyzed by DEMATE (decision making trial and evaluation laboratory). The analysis results indicate that the traffic mode structure which achieves the highest central degree is the dominant influencing factor of the urban traffic system evolution, and that economy development and the traffic poficy axe the second important factors that also affect the traffic mode structures. Furthermore, physical geography is a basic restriction to the urban traffic system evolution.

  13. Drivers of Coastal Shoreline Change: Case Study of Hon Dat Coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  14. Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  15. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  16. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  17. CNEM: Cluster Based Network Evolution Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarwat Nizamani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a network evolution model, which is based on the clustering approach. The proposed approach depicts the network evolution, which demonstrates the network formation from individual nodes to fully evolved network. An agglomerative hierarchical clustering method is applied for the evolution of network. In the paper, we present three case studies which show the evolution of the networks from the scratch. These case studies include: terrorist network of 9/11 incidents, terrorist network of WMD (Weapons Mass Destruction plot against France and a network of tweets discussing a topic. The network of 9/11 is also used for evaluation, using other social network analysis methods which show that the clusters created using the proposed model of network evolution are of good quality, thus the proposed method can be used by law enforcement agencies in order to further investigate the criminal networks

  18. On a Nonlinear Model in Adiabatic Evolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jie; Lu, Song-Feng

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we study a kind of nonlinear model of adiabatic evolution in quantum search problem. As will be seen here, for this problem, there always exists a possibility that this nonlinear model can successfully solve the problem, while the linear model can not. Also in the same setting, when the overlap between the initial state and the final stare is sufficiently large, a simple linear adiabatic evolution can achieve O(1) time efficiency, but infinite time complexity for the nonlinear model of adiabatic evolution is needed. This tells us, it is not always a wise choice to use nonlinear interpolations in adiabatic algorithms. Sometimes, simple linear adiabatic evolutions may be sufficient for using. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 61402188 and 61173050. The first author also gratefully acknowledges the support from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2014M552041

  19. The Cosmic Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahnle, Kevin J.; Catling, D. C.

    2013-01-01

    in 2004 when there were just two transiting exoplanets to consider. The trend was well-defined by late 2007. Figure 1 shows how matters stood in Dec 2012 with approx.240 exoplanets. The figure shows that the boundary between planets with and without active volatiles - the cosmic shoreline, as it were - is both well-defined and follows a power law.

  20. Trends in Substitution Models of Molecular Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel eArenas

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Substitution models of evolution describe the process of genetic variation through fixed mutations and constitute the basis of the evolutionary analysis at the molecular level. Almost forty years after the development of first substitution models, highly sophisticated and data-specific substitution models continue emerging with the aim of better mimicking real evolutionary processes. Here I describe current trends in substitution models of DNA, codon and amino acid sequence evolution, including advantages and pitfalls of the most popular models. The perspective concludes that despite the large number of currently available substitution models, further research is required for more realistic modeling, especially for DNA coding and amino acid data. Additionally, the development of more accurate complex models should be coupled with new implementations and improvements of methods and frameworks for substitution model selection and downstream evolutionary analysis.

  1. A resonance based model of biological evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damasco, Achille; Giuliani, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    We propose a coarse grained physical model of evolution. The proposed model 'at least in principle' is amenable of an experimental verification even if this looks as a conundrum: evolution is a unique historical process and the tape cannot be reversed and played again. Nevertheless, we can imagine a phenomenological scenario tailored upon state transitions in physical chemistry in which different agents of evolution play the role of the elements of a state transition like thermal noise or resonance effects. The abstract model we propose can be of help for sketching hypotheses and getting rid of some well-known features of natural history like the so-called Cambrian explosion. The possibility of an experimental proof of the model is discussed as well.

  2. Modeling Concept Evolution: A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzolo, Flavio; Velegrakis, Yannis; Mylopoulos, John; Bykau, Siarhei

    The world is changing, and so must the data that describes its history. Not surprisingly, considerable research effort has been spent in Databases along this direction, covering topics such as temporal models and schema evolution. A topic that has not received much attention, however, is that of concept evolution. For example, Germany (instance-level concept) has evolved several times in the last century as it went through different governance structures, then split into two national entities that eventually joined again. Likewise, a caterpillar is transformed into a butterfly, while a mother becomes two (maternally-related) entities. As well, the concept of Whale (a class-level concept) changed over the past two centuries thanks to scientific discoveries that led to a better understanding of what the concept entails. In this work, we present a formal framework for modeling, querying and managing such evolution. In particular, we describe how to model the evolution of a concept, and how this modeling can be used to answer historical queries of the form "How has concept X evolved over period Y". Our proposal extends an RDF-like model with temporal features and evolution operators. Then we provide a query language that exploits these extensions and supports historical queries.

  3. Biological evolution model with conditional mutation rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B.; Ghazaryan, Makar; Bratus, Alexander; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2017-05-01

    We consider an evolution model, in which the mutation rates depend on the structure of population: the mutation rates from lower populated sequences to higher populated sequences are reduced. We have applied the Hamilton-Jacobi equation method to solve the model and calculate the mean fitness. We have found that the modulated mutation rates, directed to increase the mean fitness.

  4. Chemical Evolution models of Local Group galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Tosi, M P

    2003-01-01

    Status quo and perspectives of standard chemical evolution models of Local Group galaxies are summarized, discussing what we have learnt from them, what we know we have not learnt yet, and what I think we will learn in the near future. It is described how Galactic chemical evolution models have helped showing that: i) stringent constraints on primordial nucleosynthesis can be derived from the observed Galactic abundances of the light elements, ii) the Milky Way has been accreting external gas from early epochs to the present time, iii) the vast majority of Galactic halo stars have formed quite rapidly at early epochs. Chemical evolution models for the closest dwarf galaxies, although still uncertain so far, are expected to become extremely reliable in the nearest future, thanks to the quality of new generation photometric and spectroscopic data which are currently being acquired.

  5. Shoreline as a controlling factor in commercial shrimp production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faller, K. H. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. An ecological model was developed that relates marsh detritus export and shrimp production. It was based on the hypothesis that the shoreline is a controlling factor in the production of shrimp through regulation of detritus export from the marsh. LANDSAT data were used to develop measurement of shoreline length and areas of marsh having more than 5.0 kilometers of shoreline per square kilometer of area for the Louisiana coast, demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to provide important geographic information. These factors were combined with published tidal ranges and salinities to develop a mathematical model that predicted shrimp production for nine geographic units of the Louisiana coast, as indicated by the long term average commercial shrimp yield.

  6. Neural network models of protein domain evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvia Nagl

    2000-01-01

    Protein domains are complex adaptive systems, and here a novel procedure is presented that models the evolution of new functional sites within stable domain folds using neural networks. Neural networks, which were originally developed in cognitive science for the modeling of brain functions, can provide a fruitful methodology for the study of complex systems in general. Ethical implications of developing complex systems models of biomolecules are discussed, with particular reference to molecu...

  7. Revisiting the deformed high shoreline of Lake Bonneville

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Christine Y.; Maloof, Adam C.

    2017-03-01

    Since G. K. Gilbert's foundational work in the eastern Great Basin during the late 1800s, the late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville (30-10 ka) has been recognized as a natural laboratory for various Quaternary studies, including lithospheric deformation due to surface loading and climate-forced water balance changes. Such studies rely on knowledge of the elevations of Lake Bonneville's paleoshoreline features and depositional landforms, which record a complex history of lake level variations induced by deglacial climate change. In this paper, we present (1) a new compilation of 178 elevation measurements of shoreline features marking Lake Bonneville's greatest areal extent measured using high-precision differential GPS (dGPS), and (2) a reconstructed outline of the highest shoreline based on dGPS measurements, submeter-resolution aerial imagery, topographic digital elevation models (DEMs), and field observations. We also (3) devise a simplified classification scheme and method for standardizing shoreline elevation measurement for different shoreline morphologies that includes constraints on the position of the still water level (SWL) relative to each feature type. The deformation pattern described by these shoreline features can help resolve the relative effects of local hydro-isostasy due to the lake load and regional solid earth deflection due to the Laurentide ice sheet, with potential implications for Earth rheology, glacial isostatic adjustment, and eustatic sea level change.

  8. Chemical element transport in stellar evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassisi, Santi

    2017-01-01

    Stellar evolution computations provide the foundation of several methods applied to study the evolutionary properties of stars and stellar populations, both Galactic and extragalactic. The accuracy of the results obtained with these techniques is linked to the accuracy of the stellar models, and in this context the correct treatment of the transport of chemical elements is crucial. Unfortunately, in many respects calculations of the evolution of the chemical abundance profiles in stars are still affected by sometimes sizable uncertainties. Here, we review the various mechanisms of element transport included in the current generation of stellar evolution calculations, how they are implemented, the free parameters and uncertainties involved, the impact on the models and the observational constraints.

  9. Chemical Evolution Model of M33

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles-Valdez, F.; Carigi, L.

    2011-10-01

    We present a chemical evolution model (CEM) of M33 and we find that M33, which is smaller than both M31 and MW, shows a lower gas infall rate, SFR efficiency, and IMF M_{up}. Therefore the CEMs for large spiral galaxies (Carigi et al. 2005; Meneses-Goytia et al. 2011) can be scaled to a smaller galaxy.

  10. A Simple Model for the Evolution of Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Fussy, S; Schwabl, H; Fussy, Siegfried; Groessing, Gerhard; Schwabl, Herbert

    1997-01-01

    A simple model of macroevolution is proposed exhibiting both the property of punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of potentialities for different species to evolve towards increasingly higher complexity. It is based on the phenomenon of "fractal evolution" which has been shown to constitute a fundamental property of nonlinear discretized systems with one memory- or random-based feedback loop. The latter involves a basic "cognitive" function of each species given by the power of distinction of states within some predefined resolution. The introduction of a realistic background noise limiting the range of the feedback operation yields a pattern signature in fitness space with a distribution of temporal boost/mutation distances according to a randomized devil's staircase function. Introducing a further level in the hierarchy of the system's rules, the possibility of an adaptive evolutionary change of the resolution itself is implemented, thereby providing a time-dependent measure of the species' cognitive abi...

  11. Uncertainties in shoreline position analysis: the role of run-up and tide in a gentle slope beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manno, Giorgio; Lo Re, Carlo; Ciraolo, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    In recent decades in the Mediterranean Sea, high anthropic pressure from increasing economic and touristic development has affected several coastal areas. Today the erosion phenomena threaten human activities and existing structures, and interdisciplinary studies are needed to better understand actual coastal dynamics. Beach evolution analysis can be conducted using GIS methodologies, such as the well-known Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), in which error assessment based on shoreline positioning plays a significant role. In this study, a new approach is proposed to estimate the positioning errors due to tide and wave run-up influence. To improve the assessment of the wave run-up uncertainty, a spectral numerical model was used to propagate waves from deep to intermediate water and a Boussinesq-type model for intermediate water up to the swash zone. Tide effects on the uncertainty of shoreline position were evaluated using data collected by a nearby tide gauge. The proposed methodology was applied to an unprotected, dissipative Sicilian beach far from harbors and subjected to intense human activities over the last 20 years. The results show wave run-up and tide errors ranging from 0.12 to 4.5 m and from 1.20 to 1.39 m, respectively.

  12. Spatial data integration for analyzing the dynamics of Albanian Adriatic shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arapi, Luan; Nikolli, Pal; Kovaçi, Sander

    2016-04-01

    Shoreline mapping and shoreline change detection are critical subjects for coastal resource management, coastal environmental protection and sustainable coastal development and planning. Coastal changes are attracting more focus since they are important environmental indicators that directly impact coastal economic development and land management. Changes in the shape of shoreline may essentially affect the environment of the coastal zone. These may be caused by natural processes and human activities. The undertaken work focuses on analyzing the Adriatic shoreline dynamics, using spatial temporal data, by taking advantage of Geographic Informatin System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). Shoreline mapping focuses on some specific issues such as mapping methods used to acquire shoreline data, models and database design used to represent shoreline in the spatial database and shoreline -change analysis methods. The study area extends from the mouth of Buna River in the north to Vlora Bay in the south covering a total length of about 220 km. Detection and future assessment of Albanian Adriatic shoreline spatial position is carried out through integration of multi scale resolution of spatial temporal data and different processing methods. We have combined topographic maps at different scales (1:75 000, 1918; 1:50 000, 1937; 1:25 000, 1960, 1986 and 1:10 000, 1995), digital aerial photographs of 2007 year, satellite images of Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+ and field observed GIS data. Generation of spatial data is carried out through vectorization process and image processing. Monitoring the dynamics of shoreline position change requires understanding the coastal processes as well as coastal mapping methods. The net rates of variations in the position of the shoreline are calculated according to transects disposed perpendicularly to the baseline and spaced equally along the coast. Analysis of the relative impact of the natural factors and human activities, it is fundamental

  13. Coastal morphodynamics and Chenier-Plain evolution in southwestern Louisiana, USA: A geomorphic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Randolph A.; Taylor, Matthew J.; Byrnes, Mark R.

    2007-08-01

    Using 28 topographic profiles, air-photo interpretation, and historical shoreline-change data, coastal processes were evaluated along the Chenier Plain to explain the occurrence, distribution, and geomorphic hierarchy of primary landforms, and existing hypotheses regarding Chenier-Plain evolution were reconsidered. The Chenier Plain of SW Louisiana, classified as a low-profile, microtidal, storm-dominated coast, is located west and downdrift of the Mississippi River deltaic plain. This Late-Holocene, marginal-deltaic environment is 200 km long and up to 30 km wide, and is composed primarily of mud deposits capped by marsh interspersed with thin sand- and shell-rich ridges ("cheniers") that have elevations of up to 4 m. In this study, the term "ridge" is used as a morphologic term for a narrow, linear or curvilinear topographic high that consists of sand and shelly material accumulated by waves and other physical coastal processes. Thus, most ridges in the Chenier Plain represent relict open-Gulf shorelines. On the basis of past movement trends of individual shorelines, ridges may be further classified as transgressive, regressive, or laterally accreted. Geomorphic zones that contain two or more regressive, transgressive, or laterally accreted ridges are termed complexes. Consequently, we further refine the Chenier-Plain definition by Otvos and Price [Otvos, E.G. and Price, W.A., 1979. Problems of chenier genesis and terminology—an overview. Marine Geology, 31: 251-263] and define Chenier Plain as containing at least two or more chenier complexes. Based on these definitions, a geomorphic hierarchy of landforms was refined relative to dominant process for the Louisiana Chenier Plain. The Chenier Plain is defined as a first-order feature (5000 km 2) composed of three second-order features (30 to 300 km 2): chenier complex, beach-ridge complex, and spit complex. Individual ridges of each complex type were further separated into third-order features: chenier, beach

  14. Global Models of Planet Formation and Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Mordasini, C; Dittkrist, K -M; Jin, S; Alibert, Y

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increase in observational data on exoplanets, the processes that lead to the formation of planets are still not well understood. But thanks to the high number of known exoplanets, it is now possible to look at them as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis. Its key element is a global model of planet formation and evolution that directly predicts observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disk. To do so, global models build on many specialized models that address one specific physical process. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disk (gas and solids), the (proto)planet (solid core, gaseous envelope, and atmosphere), and finally the interactions (migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches in different global models and id...

  15. A model for evolution and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Roberts, B W; Roberts, Bruce W

    1995-01-01

    We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossil record. The model indicates that a possible mechanism for mass extinction is the coincidence of a large coevolutionary avalanche in the ecosystem with a severe environmental disturbance.

  16. Modeling the microstructural evolution during constrained sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Pryds, Nini

    2014-01-01

    as well as the FEM calculation of the stress field from the microstructural evolution is discussed. The sintering behavior of a sample constrained by a rigid substrate is simulated. The constrained sintering result in a larger number of pores near the substrate, as well as anisotropic sintering shrinkage......A numerical model able to simulate solid state constrained sintering is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for free sintering with a finite element model (FEM) for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural response to the local stress...

  17. Modeling the Microstructural Evolution During Constrained Sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Pryds, Nini

    2015-01-01

    as well as the FEM calculation of the stress field from the microstructural evolution is discussed. The sintering behavior of a sample constrained by a rigid substrate is simulated. The constrained sintering results in a larger number of pores near the substrate, as well as anisotropic sintering shrinkage......A numerical model able to simulate solid-state constrained sintering is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo model for free sintering with a finite element model (FEM) for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural response to the local stress...

  18. Modeling Network Evolution Using Graph Motifs

    CERN Document Server

    Conway, Drew

    2011-01-01

    Network structures are extremely important to the study of political science. Much of the data in its subfields are naturally represented as networks. This includes trade, diplomatic and conflict relationships. The social structure of several organization is also of interest to many researchers, such as the affiliations of legislators or the relationships among terrorist. A key aspect of studying social networks is understanding the evolutionary dynamics and the mechanism by which these structures grow and change over time. While current methods are well suited to describe static features of networks, they are less capable of specifying models of change and simulating network evolution. In the following paper I present a new method for modeling network growth and evolution. This method relies on graph motifs to generate simulated network data with particular structural characteristic. This technique departs notably from current methods both in form and function. Rather than a closed-form model, or stochastic ...

  19. Punctuated evolution for the quasispecies model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krug, Joachim; Karl, Christian

    2003-02-01

    Biological evolution in a sequence space with random fitnesses is studied within Eigen's quasispecies model. A strong selection limit is employed, in which the population resides at a single sequence at all times. Evolutionary trajectories start at a randomly chosen sequence and proceed to the global fitness maximum through a small number of intermittent jumps. The distribution of the total evolution time displays a universal power law tail with exponent -2. Simulations show that the evolutionary dynamics is very well represented by a simplified shell model, in which the sub-populations at local fitness maxima grow independently. The shell model allows for highly efficient simulations, and provides a simple geometric picture of the evolutionary trajectories.

  20. Computational modelling of evolution: ecosystems and language

    CERN Document Server

    Lipowski, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Recently, computational modelling became a very important research tool that enables us to study problems that for decades evaded scientific analysis. Evolutionary systems are certainly examples of such problems: they are composed of many units that might reproduce, diffuse, mutate, die, or in some cases for example communicate. These processes might be of some adaptive value, they influence each other and occur on various time scales. That is why such systems are so difficult to study. In this paper we briefly review some computational approaches, as well as our contributions, to the evolution of ecosystems and language. We start from Lotka-Volterra equations and the modelling of simple two-species prey-predator systems. Such systems are canonical example for studying oscillatory behaviour in competitive populations. Then we describe various approaches to study long-term evolution of multi-species ecosystems. We emphasize the need to use models that take into account both ecological and evolutionary processe...

  1. Integrated Shoreline Extraction Approach with Use of Rasat MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, N.; Oy, S.; Erdem, F.; Şeker, D. Z.; Bayram, B.

    2017-09-01

    Shorelines are complex ecosystems and highly important socio-economic environments. They may change rapidly due to both natural and human-induced effects. Determination of movements along the shoreline and monitoring of the changes are essential for coastline management, modeling of sediment transportation and decision support systems. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to obtain rapid, up-to-date and reliable information for monitoring of shoreline. In this study, approximately 120 km of Antalya-Kemer shoreline which is under the threat of erosion, deposition, increasing of inhabitants and urbanization and touristic hotels, has been selected as the study area. In the study, RASAT pansharpened and SENTINEL-1A SAR images have been used to implement proposed shoreline extraction methods. The main motivation of this study is to combine the land/water body segmentation results of both RASAT MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR images to improve the quality of the results. The initial land/water body segmentation has been obtained using RASAT image by means of Random Forest classification method. This result has been used as training data set to define fuzzy parameters for shoreline extraction from SENTINEL-1A SAR image. Obtained results have been compared with the manually digitized shoreline. The accuracy assessment has been performed by calculating perpendicular distances between reference data and extracted shoreline by proposed method. As a result, the mean difference has been calculated around 1 pixel.

  2. Shoaling and shoreline dissipation of low‐frequency waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Battjes, J.A.; Janssen, T.; Van Noorloos, J.; Steenhauer, K.; Steenbergen, G.; Reniers, A.

    2007-01-01

    The growth rate, shoreline reflection, and dissipation of low‐frequency waves are investigated using data obtained from physical experiments in the Delft University of Technology research flume and by parameter variation using the numerical model Delft3D‐SurfBeat. The growth rate of the shoaling inc

  3. Model-Driven Software Evolution: A Research Agenda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Deursen, A.; Visser, E.; Warmer, J.

    2007-01-01

    Software systems need to evolve, and systems built using model-driven approaches are no exception. What complicates model-driven engineering is that it requires multiple dimensions of evolution. In regular evolution, the modeling language is used to make the changes. In meta-model evolution, changes

  4. The Delineation of Paleo-Shorelines in the Lake Manyara Basin Using TerraSAR-X Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Bachofer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to describe the delineation of paleo-shorelines using high resolution microwave images and digital image processing tools, and with that to contribute to the understanding of the complex landscape evolution of the Lake Manyara Basin. The surroundings of Lake Manyara are the focus of several paleo-archeological investigations, since the location is close to Olduvai Gorge, where paleo-anthropological findings can be traced back to homo habilis. In the catchment of Lake Manyara two hominin-bearing sites (0.78 to 0.63 Ma, lots of vertebrate fossils and hand axes from different periods were found. Understanding the development and extent of the lake is crucial for understanding the regional paleo-environment of the Quaternary. Morphological structures of shorelines and terraces east of Lake Manyara were identified from TerraSAR-X StripMap images. By applying a Canny edge detector, linear features were extracted and revised for different image acquisitions using a contextual approach. Those features match literature and field references. A digital elevation model of the region was used to map the most distinct paleo-shorelines according to their elevation.

  5. Modeling the microstructural evolution during constrained sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    to the stress field as well as the FE calculation of the stress field from the microstructural evolution is discussed. The sintering behavior of two powder compacts constrained by a rigid substrate is simulated and compared to free sintering of the same samples. Constrained sintering result in a larger number......A numerical model able to simulate solid state constrained sintering of a powder compact is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for free sintering with a finite element (FE) method for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural response...

  6. Coastal Evolution of the Mississippi River Chenier Plain: A Geomorphic Process-Response Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, R. A.; Taylor, M. J.; Byrnes, M. R.

    2007-12-01

    Petroleum Geologists Bulletin) presented the first depositional model for chenier genesis and mudflat progradation. However, Hoyt's model oversimplifies Chenier-Plain evolution because it omits ridges created by non-transgressive processes. Thus, the geologic evolution of the Chenier Plain is more complicated than Mississippi River channel avulsions, and it involved not only chenier ridges (transgressive), but also beach ridges (regressive) and spits (lateral accreted). A six-stage geomorphic process-response model is presented to describe Chenier-Plain evolution primarily as a function of: 1) the balance between sediment supply and energy dissipation associated with Mississippi River channel avulsions, 2) local sediment reworking and lateral transport, 3) tidal-entrance dynamics and sediment trapping, and 4) possibly higher-than-present stands of Holocene sea level. Hence, the development of transgressive, regressive, and laterally-accreted ridges typically occurred contemporaneously along the same shoreline at different locations.

  7. SOCAL_BIASVALUES - Southern California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  8. NORCAL_BIASVALUES - Northern California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  9. SOCAL_BIASVALUES - Southern California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  10. CENCAL_BIASVALUES - Central California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  11. NORCAL_BIASVALUES - Northern California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  12. CENCAL_BIASVALUES - Central California Shoreline Bias Values

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS has produced a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines by compiling shoreline positions from pre-existing historical shoreline databases and by...

  13. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  14. Simulated evolution in a linguistic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Knudsen

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a simple evolutionary model of childrens’ language development, whose central nonlinearity is represented by noninvertible discrete dynamical systems. The underlying assumption of the model is that children learn from other children through their interactions. The concrete learning mechanism used is based on imitation, where childrens’ languages evolve through attempting to imitate other childrens' utterances. The use of imitation in evolutionary models has been used, for instance, in evolution of bird song by Kaneko and Suzuki. The model to be presented here is similar to Kaneko and Suzuki’s model, the primary difference being the continuous nature of bird song, in contrast to the discrete nature of childrens’ utterances.

  15. Optimal evolution models for quantum tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwiński, Artur

    2016-02-01

    The research presented in this article concerns the stroboscopic approach to quantum tomography, which is an area of science where quantum physics and linear algebra overlap. In this article we introduce the algebraic structure of the parametric-dependent quantum channels for 2-level and 3-level systems such that the generator of evolution corresponding with the Kraus operators has no degenerate eigenvalues. In such cases the index of cyclicity of the generator is equal to 1, which physically means that there exists one observable the measurement of which performed a sufficient number of times at distinct instants provides enough data to reconstruct the initial density matrix and, consequently, the trajectory of the state. The necessary conditions for the parameters and relations between them are introduced. The results presented in this paper seem to have considerable potential applications in experiments due to the fact that one can perform quantum tomography by conducting only one kind of measurement. Therefore, the analyzed evolution models can be considered optimal in the context of quantum tomography. Finally, we introduce some remarks concerning optimal evolution models in the case of n-dimensional Hilbert space.

  16. Modeling Evolution of Weighted Clique Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨旭华; 蒋峰岭; 陈胜勇; 王万良

    2011-01-01

    We propose a weighted clique network evolution model, which expands continuously by the addition of a new clique (maximal complete sub-graph) at. each time step. And the cliques in the network overlap with each other. The structural expansion of the weighted clique network is combined with the edges' weight and vertices' strengths dynamical evolution. The model is based on a weight-driven dynamics and a weights' enhancement mechanism combining with the network growth. We study the network properties, which include the distribution of vertices' strength and the distribution o~ edges' weight, and find that both the distributions follow the scale-free distribution. At the same time, we also find that the relationship between strength and degree of a vertex are linear correlation during the growth of the network. On the basis of mean-field theory, we study the weighted network model and prove that both vertices' strength and edges' weight of this model follow the scale-free distribution. And we exploit an algorithm to forecast the network dynamics, which can be used to reckon the distributions and the corresponding scaling exponents. Furthermore, we observe that mean-field based theoretic results are consistent with the statistical data of the model, which denotes the theoretical result in this paper is effective.

  17. Modeling Evolution of Weighted Clique Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xu-Hua; Jiang, Feng-Ling; Chen, Sheng-Yong; Wang, Wan-Liang

    2011-11-01

    We propose a weighted clique network evolution model, which expands continuously by the addition of a new clique (maximal complete sub-graph) at each time step. And the cliques in the network overlap with each other. The structural expansion of the weighted clique network is combined with the edges' weight and vertices' strengths dynamical evolution. The model is based on a weight-driven dynamics and a weights' enhancement mechanism combining with the network growth. We study the network properties, which include the distribution of vertices' strength and the distribution of edges' weight, and find that both the distributions follow the scale-free distribution. At the same time, we also find that the relationship between strength and degree of a vertex are linear correlation during the growth of the network. On the basis of mean-field theory, we study the weighted network model and prove that both vertices' strength and edges' weight of this model follow the scale-free distribution. And we exploit an algorithm to forecast the network dynamics, which can be used to reckon the distributions and the corresponding scaling exponents. Furthermore, we observe that mean-field based theoretic results are consistent with the statistical data of the model, which denotes the theoretical result in this paper is effective.

  18. Modelling the evolution of human trail systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, Dirk; Keltsch, Joachim; Molnár, Péter

    1997-07-01

    Many human social phenomena, such as cooperation, the growth of settlements, traffic dynamics and pedestrian movement, appear to be accessible to mathematical descriptions that invoke self-organization. Here we develop a model of pedestrian motion to explore the evolution of trails in urban green spaces such as parks. Our aim is to address such questions as what the topological structures of these trail systems are, and whether optimal path systems can be predicted for urban planning. We use an `active walker' model that takes into account pedestrian motion and orientation and the concomitant feedbacks with the surrounding environment. Such models have previously been applied to the study of complex structure formation in physical, chemical and biological systems. We find that our model is able to reproduce many of the observed large-scale spatial features of trail systems.

  19. Shoreline development and degradation of coastal fish reproduction habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundblad, Göran; Bergström, Ulf

    2014-12-01

    Coastal development has severely affected habitats and biodiversity during the last century, but quantitative estimates of the impacts are usually lacking. We utilize predictive habitat modeling and mapping of human pressures to estimate the cumulative long-term effects of coastal development in relation to fish habitats. Based on aerial photographs since the 1960s, shoreline development rates were estimated in the Stockholm archipelago in the Baltic Sea. By combining shoreline development rates with spatial predictions of fish reproduction habitats, we estimated annual habitat degradation rates for three of the most common coastal fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The results showed that shoreline constructions were concentrated to the reproduction habitats of these species. The estimated degradation rates, where a degraded habitat was defined as having ≥3 constructions per 100 m shoreline, were on average 0.5 % of available habitats per year and about 1 % in areas close to larger population centers. Approximately 40 % of available habitats were already degraded in 2005. These results provide an example of how many small construction projects over time may have a vast impact on coastal fish populations.

  20. Culinary evolution models for Indian cuisines

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Anupam

    2015-01-01

    Culinary systems, the practice of preparing a refined combination of ingredients that is palatable as well as socially acceptable, are examples of complex dynamical systems. They evolve over time and are affected by a large number of factors. Modeling the dynamic nature of evolution of regional cuisines may provide us a quantitative basis and exhibit underlying processes that have driven them into the present day status. This is especially important given that the potential culinary space is practically infinite because of possible number of ingredient combinations as recipes. Such studies also provide a means to compare and contrast cuisines and to unearth their therapeutic value. Herein we provide rigorous analysis of modeling eight diverse Indian regional cuisines, while also highlighting their uniqueness, and a comparison among those models at the level of flavor compounds which opens up molecular level studies associating them especially with non-communicable diseases such as diabetes.

  1. The ‘division of labour’ model of eye evolution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Detlev Arendt; Harald Hausen; Günter Purschke

    2009-01-01

    The ‘division of labour’ model of eye evolution is elaborated here. We propose that the evolution of complex, multicellular animal eyes started from a single, multi-functional cell type that existed in metazoan ancestors...

  2. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  3. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  4. Modeling the Evolution of Incised Streams: III. Model Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Incision and ensuing widening of alluvial stream channels is widespread in the midsouth and midwestern United States and represents an important form of channel adjustment. Two accompanying papers have presented a robust computational model for simulating the long-term evolution of incised and resto...

  5. Using Transiting Planets to Model Starspot Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Davenport, James R A; Hawley, Suzanne L

    2014-01-01

    Photometry from Kepler has revealed the presence of cool starspots on the surfaces of thousands of stars, presenting a wide range of spot morphologies and lifetimes. Understanding the lifetime and evolution of starspots across the main sequence reveals critical information about the strength and nature of stellar dynamos. We probe the dynamo by modeling the starspot properties over time using Kepler light curves. In particular, we use planetary systems like Kepler 17 that show in-transit starspot crossing features. Spot-occulting transits probe smaller-scale starspot features on the stellar surface along a fixed latitude region. Our approach is novel in modeling both the in- and out-of transit light curve features, allowing us to break fundamental degeneracies between spot size, latitude, and contrast. With continuous monitoring from Kepler we are able to observe small changes in the positions and sizes of spots from many transits, spanning 4 years of data. Additionally, for stars without transiting planets l...

  6. Genealogies in simple models of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, Éric; Derrida, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    We review the statistical properties of the genealogies of a few models of evolution. In the asexual case, selection leads to coalescence times which grow logarithmically with the size of the population, in contrast with the linear growth of the neutral case. Moreover for a whole class of models, the statistics of the genealogies are those of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent rather than the Kingman coalescent in the neutral case. For sexual reproduction in the neutral case, the time to reach the first common ancestors for the whole population and the time for all individuals to have all their ancestors in common are also logarithmic in the population size, as predicted by Chang in 1999. We discuss how these times are modified by introducing selection in a simple way.

  7. Mathematical models of ecology and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai

    2012-01-01

    dynamics but as a trade-o promotes species survival by shortening juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction. Paper II compares the size-spectrum and food-web representations of communities using two traits (body size and habitat location) based unstructured population model of Lotka......) based size-structured population model, that is, interference in foraging, maintenance, survival, and recruitment. Their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities are explored. Ecologically, interference aects population demographic properties either negatively...... or positively, depending on the balance between interference induced gain and cost. Evolutionarily, the maturation size is either depressed (interference in foraging and maintenance) or elevated (interference in survival and recruitment) in a monomorphic population environment. Moreover, among the four...

  8. Evolution of species from Darwin theory: A simple model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moret, M. A.; Pereira, H. B. B.; Monteiro, S. L.; Galeão, A. C.

    2012-04-01

    Evolution of species is a complex phenomenon. Some theoretical models take into account evolution of species, like the Bak-Sneppen model that obtain punctuated equilibrium from self-organized criticality and the Penna model for biological aging that consists in a bit-string model subjected to aging, reproduction and death. In this work we propose a simple model to study different scenarios used to simulate the evolution of species. This model is based on Darwin's ideas of evolution. The present findings show that punctuated equilibria and stasis seem to be obtained directly from the mutation, selection of parents and the genetic crossover, and are very close to the fossil data analysis.

  9. Modeling Co-evolution of Speech and Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bart

    2016-04-01

    Two computer simulations are investigated that model interaction of cultural evolution of language and biological evolution of adaptations to language. Both are agent-based models in which a population of agents imitates each other using realistic vowels. The agents evolve under selective pressure for good imitation. In one model, the evolution of the vocal tract is modeled; in the other, a cognitive mechanism for perceiving speech accurately is modeled. In both cases, biological adaptations to using and learning speech evolve, even though the system of speech sounds itself changes at a more rapid time scale than biological evolution. However, the fact that the available acoustic space is used maximally (a self-organized result of cultural evolution) is constant, and therefore biological evolution does have a stable target. This work shows that when cultural and biological traits are continuous, their co-evolution may lead to cognitive adaptations that are strong enough to detect empirically.

  10. A model for brain life history evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Forero, Mauricio; Faulwasser, Timm; Lehmann, Laurent

    2017-03-01

    Complex cognition and relatively large brains are distributed across various taxa, and many primarily verbal hypotheses exist to explain such diversity. Yet, mathematical approaches formalizing verbal hypotheses would help deepen the understanding of brain and cognition evolution. With this aim, we combine elements of life history and metabolic theories to formulate a metabolically explicit mathematical model for brain life history evolution. We assume that some of the brain's energetic expense is due to production (learning) and maintenance (memory) of energy-extraction skills (or cognitive abilities, knowledge, information, etc.). We also assume that individuals use such skills to extract energy from the environment, and can allocate this energy to grow and maintain the body, including brain and reproductive tissues. The model can be used to ask what fraction of growth energy should be allocated at each age, given natural selection, to growing brain and other tissues under various biological settings. We apply the model to find uninvadable allocation strategies under a baseline setting ("me vs nature"), namely when energy-extraction challenges are environmentally determined and are overcome individually but possibly with maternal help, and use modern-human data to estimate model's parameter values. The resulting uninvadable strategies yield predictions for brain and body mass throughout ontogeny and for the ages at maturity, adulthood, and brain growth arrest. We find that: (1) a me-vs-nature setting is enough to generate adult brain and body mass of ancient human scale and a sequence of childhood, adolescence, and adulthood stages; (2) large brains are favored by intermediately challenging environments, moderately effective skills, and metabolically expensive memory; and (3) adult skill is proportional to brain mass when metabolic costs of memory saturate the brain metabolic rate allocated to skills.

  11. Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L; Powers, Sean P; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion.

  12. The Impact of Modeling Assumptions in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    CERN Document Server

    Côté, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Herwig, Falk; Venn, Kim A

    2016-01-01

    We use the OMEGA galactic chemical evolution code to investigate how the assumptions used for the treatment of galactic inflows and outflows impact numerical predictions. The goal is to determine how our capacity to reproduce the chemical evolution trends of a galaxy is affected by the choice of implementation used to include those physical processes. In pursuit of this goal, we experiment with three different prescriptions for galactic inflows and outflows and use OMEGA within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo code to recover the set of input parameters that best reproduces the chemical evolution of nine elements in the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sculptor. Despite their different degrees of intended physical realism, we found that all three prescriptions can reproduce in an almost identical way the stellar abundance trends observed in Sculptor. While the three models have the same capacity to fit the data, the best values recovered for the parameters controlling the number of Type Ia supernovae and the strength of gal...

  13. Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; French, Jon R.; Barkwith, Andrew; Bonaldo, Davide; Burningham, Helene; Murray, A. Brad; Payo, Andres; Sutherland, James; Thornhill, Gillian; Townend, Ian H.; van der Wegen, Mick; Walkden, Mike J. A.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length

  14. The Migrating Embryo Model for Disk Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Shantanu

    2012-01-01

    A new view of disk evolution is emerging from self-consistent numerical simulation modeling of the formation of circumstellar disks from the direct collapse of prestellar cloud cores. This has implications for many aspects of star and planet formation, including the growth of dust and high-temperature processing of materials. A defining result is that the early evolution of a disk is crucially affected by the continuing mass loading from the core envelope, and is driven into recurrent phases of gravitational instability. Nonlinear spiral arms formed during these episodes fragment to form gaseous clumps in the disk. These clumps generally migrate inward due to gravitational torques arising from their interaction with a trailing spiral arm. Occasionally, a clump can open up a gap in the disk and settle into a stable orbit, revealing a direct pathway to the formation of companion stars, brown dwarfs, or giant planets. At other times, when multiple clumps are present, a low mass clump may even be ejected from the...

  15. Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 6/15/2012 – 9/15/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE “Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline ” 5a. CONTRACT...this project. The paper, “Sea Spray Generation at Rocky Shoreline ” by Ed Andreas was accepted for publication and as of July 2016 was being...13 Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline 14 15 16 17 Edgar L Andreas 18 19 NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. 20 Lebanon, New

  16. 36 CFR 327.31 - Shoreline management fee schedule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Shoreline management fee... THE CHIEF OF ENGINEERS § 327.31 Shoreline management fee schedule. A charge will be made for Shoreline... permits for vegetative modification on Shoreline areas. In all cases the total administrative charge...

  17. The Impact of Modeling Assumptions in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W.; Ritter, Christian; Herwig, Falk; Venn, Kim A.

    2017-02-01

    We use the OMEGA galactic chemical evolution code to investigate how the assumptions used for the treatment of galactic inflows and outflows impact numerical predictions. The goal is to determine how our capacity to reproduce the chemical evolution trends of a galaxy is affected by the choice of implementation used to include those physical processes. In pursuit of this goal, we experiment with three different prescriptions for galactic inflows and outflows and use OMEGA within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo code to recover the set of input parameters that best reproduces the chemical evolution of nine elements in the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sculptor. This provides a consistent framework for comparing the best-fit solutions generated by our different models. Despite their different degrees of intended physical realism, we found that all three prescriptions can reproduce in an almost identical way the stellar abundance trends observed in Sculptor. This result supports the similar conclusions originally claimed by Romano & Starkenburg for Sculptor. While the three models have the same capacity to fit the data, the best values recovered for the parameters controlling the number of SNe Ia and the strength of galactic outflows, are substantially different and in fact mutually exclusive from one model to another. For the purpose of understanding how a galaxy evolves, we conclude that only reproducing the evolution of a limited number of elements is insufficient and can lead to misleading conclusions. More elements or additional constraints such as the Galaxy’s star-formation efficiency and the gas fraction are needed in order to break the degeneracy between the different modeling assumptions. Our results show that the successes and failures of chemical evolution models are predominantly driven by the input stellar yields, rather than by the complexity of the Galaxy model itself. Simple models such as OMEGA are therefore sufficient to test and validate stellar yields. OMEGA

  18. Automata network models of galaxy evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, David; Scalo, John

    1993-01-01

    Two ideas appear frequently in theories of star formation and galaxy evolution: (1) star formation is nonlocally excitatory, stimulating star formation in neighboring regions by propagation of a dense fragmenting shell or the compression of preexisting clouds; and (2) star formation is nonlocally inhibitory, making H2 regions and explosions which can create low-density and/or high temperature regions and increase the macroscopic velocity dispersion of the cloudy gas. Since it is not possible, given the present state of hydrodynamic modeling, to estimate whether one of these effects greatly dominates the other, it is of interest to investigate the predicted spatial pattern of star formation and its temporal behavior in simple models which incorporate both effects in a controlled manner. The present work presents preliminary results of such a study which is based on lattice galaxy models with various types of nonlocal inhibitory and excitatory couplings of the local SFR to the gas density, temperature, and velocity field meant to model a number of theoretical suggestions.

  19. Coastal landforms and the Holocene evolution of the Island of Samso, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sander, Lasse; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Pejrup, Morten

    2016-01-01

    The geomorphology of a coastal landscape may reveal an indication of past shoreline configurations. The spatial arrangement of the preserved morphologies may further contain indications on the importance of the different key parameters influencing shoreline evolution over millennial timescales...

  20. A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

  1. Historical Shoreline for Louisiana, Geographic NAD83, NOAA (2001) [shoreline_la_NOAA_1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    Louisiana Geographic Information Center — These data were automated to provide a suitable geographic information system (GIS) data layer depicting the historical shoreline for Louisiana. These data are...

  2. Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) Shoreline REST Services

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for the U.S. and its territories, classified according to the...

  3. Archaeological sites as indicators of ancient shorelines

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.; Gaur, A.S.; Sundaresh; Tripati, S.

    an acknowledge- able role by providing food security and water routes for the overseas trade and commerce. However, sea level fluctuations have played a significant role for the coastal settlement. Since the earliest time, study suggests, shoreline and sea...

  4. Wave transformation and shoreline water level on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; O'Callaghan, Joanne; Popinet, Stéphane

    2016-01-01

    The influence of sea swell (SS) waves, infragravity (IG) waves, and wave setup on maximum runup (Rmax) is investigated across different tidal stages on Fatato Island, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Field results illustrate that SS waves are tidally modulated at the shoreline, with comparatively greater wave attenuation and setup occurring at low tide versus high tide. A shoreward increase in IG wave height is observed across the 100 m wide reef flat at all tidal elevations, with no tidal modulation of IG wave height at the reef flat or island shoreline. A 1-D shock-capturing Green-Naghdi solver is used to replicate the field deployment and analyze Rmax. Model outputs for SS wave height, IG wave height and setup at the shoreline match field results with model skill >0.96. Model outputs for Rmax are used to identify the temporal window when geomorphic activity can occur on the beach face. During periods of moderate swell energy, waves can impact the beach face at spring low tide, due to a combination of wave setup and strong IG wave activity. Under mean wave conditions, the combined influence of setup, IG waves and SS waves results in interaction with island sediment at midtide. At high tide, SS and IG waves directly impact the beach face. Overall, wave activity is present on the beach face for 71% of the study period, a significantly longer duration than is calculated using mean water level and topographic data.

  5. Testing AGN feedback models in galaxy evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Min-Su

    Galaxy formation and evolution have been one of the most challenging problems in astrophysics. A single galaxy has various components (stars, atomic and molecular gas, a supermassive black hole, and dark matter) and has interacted with its cosmic environment throughout its history. A key issue in understanding galaxy evolution is to find the dominant physical processes in the interactions between the components of a galaxy and between a galaxy and its environment. AGN feedback has been proposed as a key process to suppress late star formation in massive elliptical galaxies and as a general consequence of galaxy mergers and interactions. In this thesis, I investigate feedback effects from active galactic nuclei (AGN) using a new simulation code and data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In the first chapter, I test purely mechanical AGN feedback models via a nuclear wind around the central SMBH in elliptical galaxies by comparing simulation results to four well-defined observational constraints: the mass ratio between the SMBH and its host galaxy, the lifetime of the quasar phase, the X-ray luminosity from the hot interstellar medium, and the mass fraction of young stars. Even though purely mechanical AGN feedback is commonly assumed in cosmological simulations, I find that it is inadequate, and cannot reproduce all four observational constraints simultaneously. This result suggests that both mechanical and radiative feedback modes are important physical processes. In the second chapter, I simulate the coevolution of the SMBH and its host galaxy under different environments, represented by different amounts of gas stripping. Though the connection between environment and galaxy evolution has been well-studied, environmental effects on the growth of the SMBH have not been answered yet. I find that strong gas stripping, which satellite galaxies might experience, highly suppresses SMBH mass accretion and AGN activity. Moreover, the suppression of the SMBH growth is

  6. Modeling Dynamic Evolution of Online Friendship Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴联仁; 闫强

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we study the dynamic evolution of friendship network in SNS (Social Networking Site).Our analysis suggests that an individual joining a community depends not only on the number of friends he or she has within the community,but also on the friendship network generated by those friends.In addition,we propose a model which is based on two processes:first,connecting nearest neighbors;second,strength driven attachment mechanism.The model reflects two facts:first,in the social network it is a universal phenomenon that two nodes are connected when they have at least one common neighbor;second,new nodes connect more likely to nodes which have larger weights and interactions,a phenomenon called strength driven attachment (also called weight driven attachment).From the simulation results,we find that degree distribution P(k),strength distribution P(s),and degree-strength correlation are all consistent with empirical data.

  7. Boston_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics Boston coastal region from Carson Beach in South Boston to Weymouth River, including the Boston Harbor Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  8. Modeling evolution using the probability of fixation: history and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCandlish, David M; Stoltzfus, Arlin

    2014-09-01

    Many models of evolution calculate the rate of evolution by multiplying the rate at which new mutations originate within a population by a probability of fixation. Here we review the historical origins, contemporary applications, and evolutionary implications of these "origin-fixation" models, which are widely used in evolutionary genetics, molecular evolution, and phylogenetics. Origin-fixation models were first introduced in 1969, in association with an emerging view of "molecular" evolution. Early origin-fixation models were used to calculate an instantaneous rate of evolution across a large number of independently evolving loci; in the 1980s and 1990s, a second wave of origin-fixation models emerged to address a sequence of fixation events at a single locus. Although origin fixation models have been applied to a broad array of problems in contemporary evolutionary research, their rise in popularity has not been accompanied by an increased appreciation of their restrictive assumptions or their distinctive implications. We argue that origin-fixation models constitute a coherent theory of mutation-limited evolution that contrasts sharply with theories of evolution that rely on the presence of standing genetic variation. A major unsolved question in evolutionary biology is the degree to which these models provide an accurate approximation of evolution in natural populations.

  9. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    , and it is demonstrated that this simple formulation enables very accurate representation of experimental results. An extension of the theory to account for model parameter evolution effects, e.g. in the form of changing yield level, is included in the form of extended evolution equations for the model parameters...

  10. MS_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Mississippi Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  11. AL_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Alabama Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  12. FL_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Florida Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  13. TX_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Texas Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  14. LA_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Louisiana Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  15. Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; French, Jon R.; Barkwith, Andrew; Bonaldo, Davide; Burningham, Helene; Brad Murray, A.; Payo, Andres; Sutherland, James; Thornhill, Gillian; Townend, Ian H.; van der Wegen, Mick; Walkden, Mike J. A.

    2016-03-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called 'reduced complexity' models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner

  16. An Empirical-Conceptual Model for the Formation and Evolution of Incised Coastal Channels: The `Chines' of the Isle of Wight, England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

    2005-12-01

    Incised channels are features of disturbed landscapes that are found in all morphoclimatic regions, operating at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Coastal incised channels can be found at various locations around the world where the shoreline morphology consists of cliffs. The channels can cut through a range of cliff materials although the depth of incision may be limited by the erodibility of the lithology. The incised channels that are the focus of this study flow into the sea along the southern coast of the Isle of Wight, which is located close to the southern English shore. This coastline consists of soft cliffs varying in height from 15m to 100m and which are rapidly retreating at rates of up to 2m a-1 due to a combination of wave erosion and landslides. River channels that debouche through these cliffs, which are known locally as `Chines', are deeply (in places 45m) incised and side-wall collapse is a common process. The combination of deep incision (which provides a sheltered environment) and unstable side-wall surfaces provide habitats that support a range of diverse and rare flora (Philonotis marchica, Anthoceros punctatos) and fauna (Psen atratinus, Baris analis, Melitaea cinxi). Understanding the geomorphic evolution of these features is, therefore, of considerable interest from the point of view of the long term management of biodiversity. The Isle of Wight Chines can be considered unusual in that their formation is associated with shoreline encroachment during a period of rising sea-level, whereas most existing models of incised fluvial channel evolution emphasise base-level lowering at a location that is fixed in space. A conceptual model of the sequential stages of morphological evolution within the Chines has been developed by applying a space for time substitution method using empirical data gathered from Chine channel surveys. The model is linked to a theory of Chine growth or decay that is based on analysing the relative balance between

  17. Recent Advances in Shell Evolution with Shell-Model Calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Utsuno, Yutaka; Tsunoda, Yusuke; Shimizu, Noritaka; Honma, Michio; Togashi, Tomoaki; Mizusaki, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    Shell evolution in exotic nuclei is investigated with large-scale shell-model calculations. After presenting that the central and tensor forces produce distinctive ways of shell evolution, we show several recent results: (i) evolution of single-particle-like levels in antimony and cupper isotopes, (ii) shape coexistence in nickel isotopes understood in terms of configuration-dependent shell structure, and (iii) prediction of the evolution of the recently established $N=34$ magic number towards smaller proton numbers. In any case, large-scale shell-model calculations play indispensable roles in describing the interplay between single-particle character and correlation.

  18. Scaling Theory and Modeling of DNA Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buldyrev, Sergey V.

    1998-03-01

    We present evidence supporting the possibility that the nucleotide sequence in noncoding DNA is power-law correlated. We do not find such long-range correlation in the coding regions of the gene, so we build a ``coding sequence finder'' to locate the coding regions of an unknown DNA sequence. We also propose a different coding sequence finding algorithm, based on the concept of mutual information(I. Große, S. V. Buldyrev, H. Herzel, H. E. Stanley, (preprint).). We describe our recent work on quantification of DNA patchiness, using long-range correlation measures (G. M. Viswanathan, S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Biophysical Journal 72), 866-875 (1997).. We also present our recent study of the simple repeat length distributions. We find that the distributions of some simple repeats in noncoding DNA have long power-law tails, while in coding DNA all simple repeat distributions decay exponentially. (N. V. Dokholyan, S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Phys. Rev. Lett (in press).) We discuss several models based on insertion-deletion and mutation-duplication mechanisms that relate long-range correlations in non-coding DNA to DNA evolution. Specifically, we relate long-range correlations in non-coding DNA to simple repeat expansion, and propose an evolutionary model that reproduces the power law distribution of simple repeat lengths. We argue that the absence of long-range correlations in protein coding sequences is related to their highly conserved primary structure which is necessary to insure protein folding.

  19. Quantitative Modeling of Landscape Evolution, Treatise on Geomorphology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Veldkamp, A.; Shroder, F.S.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter reviews quantitative modeling of landscape evolution – which means that not just model studies but also modeling concepts are discussed. Quantitative modeling is contrasted with conceptual or physical modeling, and four categories of model studies are presented. Procedural studies focus

  20. Evolution of Black-Box Models Based on Volterra Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. Silveira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical review of the many behavioral models actually used to model radio frequency power amplifiers and a new classification of these behavioral models. It also discusses the evolution of these models, from a single polynomial to multirate Volterra models, presenting equations and estimation methods. New trends in RF power amplifier behavioral modeling are suggested.

  1. Modelling the long-term morphological evolution of a coupled open coast, inlet and estuary system to explore climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Walkden, Mike; Barnes, John; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to account for morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales. Critical aspects of geomorphic behaviour at these temporal scales emerge at a system level, such that accounting for the feedbacks between different landform components is of key importance. In this study we develop new methods to simulate the large-scale evolution of a coupled open coast - inlet - estuary system, allowing us to explore the system's response to climate change impacts and management interventions. The system explored here encompasses the Deben estuary (eastern England) and its adjacent shorelines. The estuary itself mainly consists of finer sediments. Sediments throughout the inlet, on the other hand, including the ebb-tidal delta itself, comprise a mixture of gravel and sand. The ebb-tidal shoals and sediment bypassing show broadly cyclic behaviour on a 10 to 30 year timescale. Neighbouring beaches consist of mixed sediment and are partially backed up by sedimentary cliffs, the behaviour of which is potentially influenced by the sediment bypassing at the inlet. In addition, the open coast has undergone major transformations as a result of numerous sea defences which have altered sediment availability and supply. The interlinked behaviour of this system is approached by coupling a new inlet model (MESO_i) with an existing, and recently extended, model for the open coast (SCAPE+). MESOi simulates the evolution at the mouth of the Deben at an aggregated scale, conceptualizing the inlet by different geomorphic features that are characterized mainly by their volume. The behaviour of the inlet shoals is influenced by the estuarine tidal prism, linking estuarine processes with inlet dynamics. SCAPE+ computes the shaping of the shore profile and has proven capable of providing valuable information in terms of decadal evolution and related cliff recession rates. Simulations conducted with this composition of models highlight

  2. Uncertainties in stellar evolution models: convective overshoot

    CERN Document Server

    Bressan, Alessandro; Marigo, Paola; Rosenfield, Philip; Tang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    In spite of the great effort made in the last decades to improve our understanding of stellar evolution, significant uncertainties remain due to our poor knowledge of some complex physical processes that require an empirical calibration, such as the efficiency of the interior mixing related to convective overshoot. Here we review the impact of convective overshoot on the evolution of stars during the main Hydrogen and Helium burning phases.

  3. Uncertainties in Stellar Evolution Models: Convective Overshoot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Alessandro; Girardi, Léo; Marigo, Paola; Rosenfield, Philip; Tang, Jing

    In spite of the great effort made in the last decades to improve our understanding of stellar evolution, significant uncertainties remain due to our poor knowledge of some complex physical processes that require an empirical calibration, such as the efficiency of the interior mixing related to convective overshoot. Here we review the impact of convective overshoot on the evolution of stars during the main Hydrogen and Helium burning phases.

  4. A method for using shoreline morphology to predict suspended sediment concentration in tidal creeks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensign, Scott; Currin, Carolyn; Piehler, Michael; Tobias, Craig

    2017-01-01

    Improving mechanistic prediction of shoreline response to sea level rise is currently limited by 1) morphologic complexity of tidal creek shorelines that confounds application of mechanistic models, and 2) availability of suspended sediment measurements to parameterize mechanistic models. To address these challenges we developed a metric to distinguish two morphodynamic classes of tidal creek and tested whether this metric could be used to predict suspended sediment concentration. We studied three small tidal creeks in North Carolina, U.S.A. We collected suspended sediment at one non-tidal and two tidal sites in each creek and measured the wetland and channel width using a geographic information system. In each creek, tidal harmonics were measured for one year, sediment accretion on the salt marsh was measured for three years, and shoreline erosion was measured from aerial photographs spanning 50 years. Additional total suspended solids measurements from seven creeks reported in a national database supplemented our analysis. Among the three intensively studied creeks, shoreline erosion was highest in the most embayed creek (having a wider channel than the width of adjoining wetlands) and lowest in the wetland-dominated creek (having a channel narrower than the width of adjoining wetlands). Wetland sediment accretion rate in the wetland-dominated creek was four times higher than the accretion in the embayed creek. The wetland-dominated tidal creek had over twice the suspended sediment as the most embayed creek. Based on these results, we conclude that our metric of embayed and contrasting wetland-dominated creek morphology provides a guide for choosing between two types of morphodynamic models that are widely used to predict wetland shoreline change. This metric also allowed us to parse the 10 tidal creeks studied into two groups with different suspended sediment concentrations. This relationship between suspended sediment concentration and creek morphology provides

  5. Modeling Temporal Evolution and Multiscale Structure in Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2013-01-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit both temporal evolution and multiscale structure. We propose a model for temporally correlated multifurcating hierarchies in complex networks which jointly capture both effects. We use the Gibbs fragmentation tree as prior over multifurcating trees and a change......-point model to account for the temporal evolution of each vertex. We demonstrate that our model is able to infer time-varying multiscale structure in synthetic as well as three real world time-evolving complex networks. Our modeling of the temporal evolution of hierarchies brings new insights...

  6. Dynamic landscapes: a model of context and contingency in evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, David V; Rorick, Mary M; Gesell, Tanja; Feeney, Laura M; Foster, Jacob G

    2013-10-01

    Although the basic mechanics of evolution have been understood since Darwin, debate continues over whether macroevolutionary phenomena are driven by the fitness structure of genotype space or by ecological interaction. In this paper we propose a simple model capturing key features of fitness-landscape and ecological models of evolution. Our model describes evolutionary dynamics in a high-dimensional, structured genotype space with interspecies interaction. We find promising qualitative similarity with the empirical facts about macroevolution, including broadly distributed extinction sizes and realistic exploration of the genotype space. The abstraction of our model permits numerous applications beyond macroevolution, including protein and RNA evolution.

  7. Galactic evolution. I - Single-zone models. [encompassing stellar evolution and gas-star dynamic theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuan, T. X.; Hart, M. H.; Ostriker, J. P.

    1975-01-01

    The two basic approaches of physical theory required to calculate the evolution of a galactic system are considered, taking into account stellar evolution theory and the dynamics of a gas-star system. Attention is given to intrinsic (stellar) physics, extrinsic (dynamical) physics, and computations concerning the fractionation of an initial mass of gas into stars. The characteristics of a 'standard' model and its variants are discussed along with the results obtained with the aid of these models.

  8. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-07-18

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic regions of the United States have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included four shoreline positions at a given location. The long-term shoreline change rates also incorporate the proxy-datum bias correction to account for the unidirectional onshore bias of the proxy-based high water line shorelines relative to the datum-based mean high water shorelines. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment project. The average rates reported here have a reduced amount of uncertainty relative to those presented in the previous assessments for these two regions.

  9. Knowledge Growth: Applied Models of General and Individual Knowledge Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silkina, Galina Iu.; Bakanova, Svetlana A.

    2016-01-01

    The article considers the mathematical models of the growth and accumulation of scientific and applied knowledge since it is seen as the main potential and key competence of modern companies. The problem is examined on two levels--the growth and evolution of objective knowledge and knowledge evolution of a particular individual. Both processes are…

  10. Shoreline clean-up methods : biological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoura, S.T. [Oil Spill Response Limited, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The cleanup of oil spills in shoreline environments is a challenging issue worldwide. Oil spills receive public and media attention, particularly in the event of a coastal impact. It is important to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of cleanup methods when defining the level of effort and consequences that are appropriate to remove or treat different types of oil on different shoreline substrates. Of the many studies that have compared different mechanical, chemical and biological treatments for their effectiveness on various types of oil, biological techniques have received the most attention. For that reason, this paper evaluated the effectiveness and effects of shoreline cleanup methods using biological techniques. It summarized data from field experiments and oil spill incidents, including the Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, Prestige, Grand Eagle, Nakhodka, Guanabara Bay and various Gulf war oil spills. Five major shoreline types were examined, notably rocky intertidal, cobble/pebble/gravel, sand/mud, saltmarsh, and mangrove/sea-grass. The biological techniques that were addressed were nutrient enrichment, hydrocarbon-utilizing bacteria, vegetable oil biosolvents, plants, surf washing, oil-particle interactions and natural attenuation. The study considered the oil type, volume and fate of stranded oil, location of coastal materials, extent of pollution and the impact of biological techniques. The main factors that affect biodegradation of hydrocarbons are the volume, chemical composition and weathering state of the petroleum product as well as the temperature, oxygen availability of nutrients, water salinity, pH level, water content, and microorganisms in the shoreline environment. The interaction of these factors also affect the biodegradation of oil. It was concluded that understanding the fate of stranded oil can help in the development of techniques that improve the weathering and degradation of oil on complex shoreline substrates. 39 refs.

  11. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  12. 1950 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — 1950 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83) consists of vector shoreline data that were derived from a set of National Ocean Service...

  13. 1922 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — 1922 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83) consists of vector shoreline data that were derived from a set of National Ocean Service...

  14. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  15. 1869 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — 1869 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83) consists of vector shoreline data that were derived from a set of National Ocean Service...

  16. 1950 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — 1950 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83) consists of vector shoreline data that were derived from a set of National Ocean Service...

  17. Chempy: A flexible chemical evolution model for abundance fitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybizki, J.; Just, A.; Rix, H.-W.; Fouesneau, M.

    2017-02-01

    Chempy models Galactic chemical evolution (GCE); it is a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of 5-10 parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: e.g. the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF) and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets, performing essentially as a chemical evolution fitting tool. Chempy can be used to confront predictions from stellar nucleosynthesis with complex abundance data sets and to refine the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of stellar systems.

  18. Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Baartman, J.E.M.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long-lived and therefore have a long-term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long-term impact is still poorly understood and

  19. Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    2014-01-01

    Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long-lived and therefore have a long-term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long-term impact is still poorly understood and la

  20. A data base for galaxy evolution modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leitherer, C; Alloin, D; FritzVonAlvensleben, U; Gallagher, JS; Huchra, JP; Matteucci, F; OConnell, RW; Beckman, JE; Bertelli, GP; Bica, E; Boisson, C; Bonatto, C; Bothun, GD; Bressan, A; Brodie, JP; Bruzual, G; Burstein, D; Buser, R; Caldwell, N; Casuso, E; Cervino, M; Charlot, S; Chavez, M; Chiosi, C; Christian, CA; Cuisinier, F; Dallier, R; deKoter, A; Delisle, S; Diaz, AI; Dopita, MA; Dorman, B; Fagotto, F; Fanelli, MN; Fioc, M; GarciaVargas, ML; Girardi, L; Goldader, JD; Hardy, E; Heckman, TM; Iglesias, J; Jablonka, P; Joly, M; Jones, L; Kurth, O; Lancon, A; Lejeune, T; Loxen, J; Maeder, A; Malagnini, ML; Marigo, P; MasHesse, JM; Meynet, G; Moller, CS; Molla, ML; Morossi, C; Nasi, E; Nichols, JS; Odegaard, KJR; Parker, JWM; Pastoriza, MG; Peletier, R; Robert, C; RoccaVolmerange, B; Schaerer, D; Schmidt, A; Schmitt, HR; Schommer, RA; Schmutz, W; Silva, L; Stasinska, G; Sutherland, RS; Tantalo, R; Traat, P; Vallenari, A; Vazdekis, A; Walborn, NR; Worthey, G

    1996-01-01

    This paper represents a collective effort to provide an extensive electronic data base useful for the interpretation of the spectra and evolution of galaxies. A broad variety of empirical and theoretical data is discussed here, and the data are made fully available in the AAS CD-ROM Series, Vol. 7.

  1. Shorelines of the Western Beaufort Sea, Alaska coastal region (Colville River to Point Barrow) used in shoreline change analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This dataset includes shorelines from 65 years ranging from 1947 to 2012 for the north coast of Alaska between the Colville River and Point Barrow. Shorelines were...

  2. Shorelines of the Central Beaufort Sea, Alaska coastal region (Hulahula River to the Colville River) used in shoreline change analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This dataset includes shorelines from 63 years ranging from 1947 to 2010 for the north coast of Alaska between the Hulahula River and the Colville River. Shorelines...

  3. Aerial_Shorelines_1940_2015.shp - Dauphin Island, Alabama Shoreline Data Derived from Aerial Imagery from 1940 to 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Aerial_WDL_Shorelines.zip features digitized historic shorelines for the Dauphin Island coastline from October 1940 to November 2015. This dataset contains 10 Wet...

  4. Observations of shoreline-sandbar coupling on an embayed beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Lageweg, W.I.; Bryan, K.R.; Coco, G.; Ruessink, B.G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyse a seven-year dataset (1999–2005) of shoreline and sandbar variations derived from video observations at the embayed Tairua Beach, New Zealand, to explore sandbar–shoreline coupling and to determine how this coupling is related to alongshore-averaged sandbar–shoreline separation and beach

  5. A Phenomenological Model for the Evolution of Proto-Galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Tabatabaei, F K

    2003-01-01

    The contraction model of Field and Colgate for proto-galaxies, first proposed to describe the observed properties of quasars, is generalized and used to investigate the evolution of galaxies. The LEDA data base for elliptical, spiral, compact and diffuse galaxies is employed and it is shown that the above model is consistent with observational evidences regarding their dynamical evolution, star formation rate and different morphologies.

  6. A Novel Approach to Constraining Uncertain Stellar Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, Philip; Girardi, Leo; Dalcanton, Julianne; Johnson, L. C.; Williams, Benjamin F.; Weisz, Daniel R.; Bressan, Alessandro; Fouesneau, Morgan

    2017-01-01

    Stellar evolution models are fundamental to nearly all studies in astrophysics. They are used to interpret spectral energy distributions of distant galaxies, to derive the star formation histories of nearby galaxies, and to understand fundamental parameters of exoplanets. Despite the success in using stellar evolution models, some important aspects of stellar evolution remain poorly constrained and their uncertainties rarely addressed. We present results using archival Hubble Space Telescope observations of 10 stellar clusters in the Magellanic Clouds to simultaneously constrain the values and uncertainties of the strength of core convective overshooting, metallicity, interstellar extinction, cluster distance, binary fraction, and age.

  7. How kilometric sandy shoreline undulations correlate with wave and morphology characteristics: preliminary analysis on the Atlantic coast of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idier, D.; Falqués, A.

    2014-04-01

    Sandy coasts are characterized by a number of rhythmic patterns like, amongst others, shoreline undulations or sandwaves at a kilometric scale. One hypothesis for their formation is that high angle waves (large incidence angle with respect to shore normal) could induce an instability of the shoreline (Ashton et al., 2001). More recently, a scaling for their wavelength has also been proposed (van den Berg et al., 2014). The existing studies rely mainly on modelling but quantitative field tests are lacking. We aim at investigating how both the formation hypothesis of these shoreline undulations and the theoretical scaling do fit with nature at a global scale. The first step, which is the goal of this paper, is to set up the methodology by analyzing the Atlantic African coast as test site. First, based on global databases, shoreline wavelength LS, wave characteristics (obliquity θW and wavelength λW) and mean shoreface slope β are determined. Then the wave obliquity is confronted with the presence of shoreline undulations. Finally the values of the ratio β LS / λW are estimated and discussed in comparison with the estimate of van den Berg et al. (2014). It is found that the correlation between shoreline sandwave occurrence and wave obliquity is very good, allowing the identification of 5 new potential unstable shoreline stretches, whereas the results on the scaling are not conclusive and deserve further investigations.

  8. Freshman Orientation Evaluation, Shoreline Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Gordon

    Evaluation of the freshman orientation program at Shoreline Community College (Washington) was approached through the use of several criteria: (l) results of the Brown-Holtzman Survey of Study Habits and Attitudes (SSHA), (2) comparison of first-quarter grade averages with orientation program attendance records, (3) the completion of a…

  9. Model-driven evolution of software architectures

    OpenAIRE

    Graaf, B.S.

    2007-01-01

    Software evolves continuously. As a consequence, software systems tend to become increasingly complex and, as such, more difficult to change. A software system's complexity is for a large part determined by its structure, or architecture. In this thesis we investigate how to reduce the risks and costs associated with the evolution of software architectures. Automation and abstraction are two basic software engineering techniques to deal with complexity. In this thesis we investigate the appli...

  10. Open Educational Resources: evolution and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Paz Trillo Miravalles

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available With the revolution in Information Technologies and Communication, a new thinking emerges about the use of these means from different fields.This article presents the evolution and prospect of technologies from the socioeducational field, it shows different movements emerged on European and international level. It analyses the Open Educational Resources (OER understood as new resources owing to the fact that they are offered free of charge to the whole society, they manage to share, adapt and use the knowledge.

  11. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those

  12. Construction Method of Supernetwork Evolution Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU; Qiang; FANG; Jin-qing; LI; Yong

    2013-01-01

    Real networks often have small-world and scale-free characteristics.Based on BA and WS model,we proposed the following construction method for TLSEM(Fig.1).Three layers are BA model(TBA),three layers are SW model(TSW),the first and third layers are BA model,the middle layer is SW model(BA-SW),the first and third layers are SW model,and the middle layer is BA model(SW-BA).The

  13. Experimental evolution in silico: a custom-designed mathematical model for virulence evolution of Bacillus thuringiensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauß, Jakob Friedrich; Crain, Philip; Schulenburg, Hinrich; Telschow, Arndt

    2016-08-01

    Most mathematical models on the evolution of virulence are based on epidemiological models that assume parasite transmission follows the mass action principle. In experimental evolution, however, mass action is often violated due to controlled infection protocols. This "theory-experiment mismatch" raises the question whether there is a need for new mathematical models to accommodate the particular characteristics of experimental evolution. Here, we explore the experimental evolution model system of Bacillus thuringiensis as a parasite and Caenorhabditis elegans as a host. Recent experimental studies with strict control of parasite transmission revealed that one-sided adaptation of B. thuringiensis with non-evolving hosts selects for intermediate or no virulence, sometimes coupled with parasite extinction. In contrast, host-parasite coevolution selects for high virulence and for hosts with strong resistance against B. thuringiensis. In order to explain the empirical results, we propose a new mathematical model that mimics the basic experimental set-up. The key assumptions are: (i) controlled parasite transmission (no mass action), (ii) discrete host generations, and (iii) context-dependent cost of toxin production. Our model analysis revealed the same basic trends as found in the experiments. Especially, we could show that resistant hosts select for highly virulent bacterial strains. Moreover, we found (i) that the evolved level of virulence is independent of the initial level of virulence, and (ii) that the average amount of bacteria ingested significantly affects the evolution of virulence with fewer bacteria ingested selecting for highly virulent strains. These predictions can be tested in future experiments. This study highlights the usefulness of custom-designed mathematical models in the analysis and interpretation of empirical results from experimental evolution.

  14. The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: Answering recent challenges to the paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedan, Keryn B.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Wolanski, Eric; Barbier, Edward B.; Silliman, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, coastal wetlands have been recognized for their ability to stabilize shorelines and protect coastal communities. However, this paradigm has recently been called into question by small-scale experimental evidence. Here, we conduct a literature review and a small meta-analysis of wave attenuation data, and we find overwhelming evidence in support of established theory. Our review suggests that mangrove and salt marsh vegetation afford context-dependent protection from erosion, storm surge, and potentially small tsunami waves. In biophysical models, field tests, and natural experiments, the presence of wetlands reduces wave heights, property damage, and human deaths. Meta-analysis of wave attenuation by vegetated and unvegetated wetland sites highlights the critical role of vegetation in attenuating waves. Although we find coastal wetland vegetation to be an effective shoreline buffer, wetlands cannot protect shorelines in all locations or scenarios; indeed large-scale regional erosion, river meandering, and large tsunami waves and storm surges can overwhelm the attenuation effect of vegetation. However, due to a nonlinear relationship between wave attenuation and wetland size, even small wetlands afford substantial protection from waves. Combining man-made structures with wetlands in ways that mimic nature is likely to increase coastal protection. Oyster domes, for example, can be used in combination with natural wetlands to protect shorelines and restore critical fishery habitat. Finally, coastal wetland vegetation modifies shorelines in ways (e.g. peat accretion) that increase shoreline integrity over long timescales and thus provides a lasting coastal adaptation measure that can protect shorelines against accelerated sea level rise and more frequent storm inundation. We conclude that the shoreline protection paradigm still stands, but that gaps remain in our knowledge about the mechanistic and context-dependent aspects of shoreline

  15. Simple Model of Shape Evolution of Desiccated Colloidal Sessile Drop

    OpenAIRE

    Tarasevich, Yu. Yu.; Vodolazskaya, I. V.; Isakova, O. P.

    2011-01-01

    We propose simple model of colloidal sessile drop desiccation. The model describes correctly both evolution of the phase boundary between sol and gel inside such a drop and the final shape of the dried film (deposit). The model is based on mass conservation and natural assumption that deposit (gel phase) prevents flows and evaporation.

  16. Hurricane Sandy beach response and recovery at Fire Island, New York: Shoreline, beach profile data, and breach shoreline data: October 2012 to June 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Rachel E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen T.; Reynolds, Billy J.

    2017-01-01

    Fire Island, New York is the site of a long term coastal morphologic change and processes project conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). One of the objectives of the project was to understand the morphologic evolution of the barrier system on a variety of time scales (months–years–decades–centuries). In response to Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), this effort continued with the intention of resolving storm impacts, post-storm beach response, and recovery. The day before Hurricane Sandy made landfall a USGS field team conducted surveys at Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS) to quantify the pre-storm morphologic state of the beach and dunes. The area was re-surveyed after the storm, as soon as access to the island was possible. In order to fully capture the recovery of the barrier system, the USGS Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Fire Island Study was established to include regular surveying in the weeks, months, and years following the storm. As part of the USGS Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Fire Island Study, the beach is monitored periodically to enable better understanding of post-Sandy recovery. The alongshore state of the beach is recorded using a differential global positioning system (DGPS) to collect data around the mean high water (MHW; 0.46 meter North American Vertical Datum of 1988) to derive a shoreline, and the cross-shore response and recovery are measured along a series of 15 profiles (Figure 1). Monitoring continued in the weeks following Hurricane Sandy with additional monthly collection through April 2013, and repeat surveys every 2–3 months thereafter until October 2014. Additional bi-annual surveys have been collected through September 2016. Beginning in October 2014 the USGS also began collecting a shoreline at the Wilderness breach, in the location of Old Inlet, in the Otis Pike High Dunes Wilderness area. The shoreline collected was an approximation of the MHW shoreline. The operator walked along an estimated MHW elevation above

  17. Hierarchical Model for the Evolution of Cloud Complexes

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez, N; Sanchez, Nestor; Parravano, Antonio

    1999-01-01

    The structure of cloud complexes appears to be well described by a "tree structure" representation when the image is partitioned into "clouds". In this representation, the parent-child relationships are assigned according to containment. Based on this picture, a hierarchical model for the evolution of Cloud Complexes, including star formation, is constructed, that follows the mass evolution of each sub-structure by computing its mass exchange (evaporation or condensation) with its parent and children, which depends on the radiation density at the interphase. For the set of parameters used as a reference model, the system produces IMFs with a maximum at too high mass (~2 M_sun) and the characteristic times for evolution seem too long. We show that these properties can be improved by adjusting model parameters. However, the emphasis here is to illustrate some general properties of this nonlinear model for the star formation process. Notwithstanding the simplifications involved, the model reveals an essential fe...

  18. Topological evolution of virtual social networks by modeling social activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Dong, Junyu; Tang, Ruichun; Xu, Mantao; Qi, Lin; Cai, Yang

    2015-09-01

    With the development of Internet and wireless communication, virtual social networks are becoming increasingly important in the formation of nowadays' social communities. Topological evolution model is foundational and critical for social network related researches. Up to present most of the related research experiments are carried out on artificial networks, however, a study of incorporating the actual social activities into the network topology model is ignored. This paper first formalizes two mathematical abstract concepts of hobbies search and friend recommendation to model the social actions people exhibit. Then a social activities based topology evolution simulation model is developed to satisfy some well-known properties that have been discovered in real-world social networks. Empirical results show that the proposed topology evolution model has embraced several key network topological properties of concern, which can be envisioned as signatures of real social networks.

  19. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de [Institute of Physics, University of Brasilia (Brazil); Silva, Sergio da [Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina (Brazil); Gleria, Iram, E-mail: iram@pq.cnpq.br [Institute of Physics, Federal University of Alagoas (Brazil)

    2011-08-08

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.

  20. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  1. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-02-12

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups).

  2. Shoreline Response to Three Submerged Offshore Breakwaters along Kerteh Bay Coast of Terengganu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawal Abdul Qayoom Tunji

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study will attempt to create a predictive empirical model exclusively for SBWs (submerged breakwaters in terms of mode (erosion or accretion and magnitude (size of salient of formation. In the past, prediction of shoreline response to SBWs was done based on predictive empirical model for generalized offshore breakwaters (Submerged & Emerged. But majority of documented response of prototype submerged structures result in erosion rather than accretion in there lee. It is believed that these structures don’t perform as expected because a generalized predictive empirical model is used to predict the shoreline response to these structures. A numerical model MIKE 21 CAM and aerial/satellite imagery will be adopted to deduce relationships between structural and environmental parameters, which will result in formation of a predictive empirical model. An ideal prototype of SBWs is available in Kerteh, Terengganu, Malaysia. This will serve as a study area and the results from the Numerical model and aerial/satellite images will be validated with results from the study area. The predictive empirical model will as well be tested on the study area. It is expected that a contribution will be made towards the understanding of the key parameters that governs the mode (i.e., erosion and accretion and the magnitude (i.e., size of salient of shoreline response to SBWs. It is also expected that a predictive empirical model will be established to accurately predict shoreline response in terms of mode and magnitude of SBWs.

  3. TWO-POP-PY: Two-population dust evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnstiel, T.; Klahr, H.; Ercolano, B.

    2017-08-01

    TWO-POP-PY runs a two-population dust evolution model that follows the upper end of the dust size distribution and the evolution of the dust surface density profile and treats dust surface density, maximum particle size, small and large grain velocity, and fragmentation. It derives profiles that describe the dust-to-gas ratios and the dust surface density profiles well in protoplanetary disks, in addition to the radial flux by solid material rain out.

  4. A last updating evolution model for online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Zhan; Xia, Zhengyou; Wang, Jiandong; Zhang, Chengcui

    2013-05-01

    As information technology has advanced, people are turning to electronic media more frequently for communication, and social relationships are increasingly found on online channels. However, there is very limited knowledge about the actual evolution of the online social networks. In this paper, we propose and study a novel evolution network model with the new concept of “last updating time”, which exists in many real-life online social networks. The last updating evolution network model can maintain the robustness of scale-free networks and can improve the network reliance against intentional attacks. What is more, we also found that it has the “small-world effect”, which is the inherent property of most social networks. Simulation experiment based on this model show that the results and the real-life data are consistent, which means that our model is valid.

  5. Modelling of nonlinear shoaling based on stochastic evolution equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed-Hansen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Jørgen Hvenekær

    1998-01-01

    A one-dimensional stochastic model is derived to simulate the transformation of wave spectra in shallow water including generation of bound sub- and super-harmonics, near-resonant triad wave interaction and wave breaking. Boussinesq type equations with improved linear dispersion characteristics...... are recast into evolution equations for the complex amplitudes, and serve as the underlying deterministic model. Next, a set of evolution equations for the cumulants is derived. By formally introducing the well-known Gaussian closure hypothesis, nonlinear evolution equations for the power spectrum...... and bispectrum are derived. A simple description of depth-induced wave breaking is incorporated in the model equations, assuming that the total rate of dissipation may be distributed in proportion to the spectral energy density on each discrete frequency. The proposed phase-averaged model is compared...

  6. Modeling the microstructural evolution during constrained sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Pryds, Nini

    A mesoscale numerical model able to simulate solid state constrained sintering is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for free sintering with a finite element method for calculating stresses. The sintering behavior of a sample constrained by a rigid substrate ...

  7. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; de Castro, Marcio T.; da Silva, Sergio; Gleria, Iram

    2011-08-01

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior.

  8. Evolution of states in a continuum migration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondratiev, Yuri; Kozitsky, Yuri

    2017-03-01

    The Markov evolution of states of a continuum migration model is studied. The model describes an infinite system of entities placed in R^d in which the constituents appear (immigrate) with rate b(x) and disappear, also due to competition. For this model, we prove the existence of the evolution of states μ _0 mapsto μ _t such that the moments μ _t(N_Λ ^n) , nin N, of the number of entities in compact Λ subset R^d remain bounded for all t>0 . Under an additional condition, we prove that the density of entities and the second correlation function remain point-wise bounded globally in time.

  9. Empirical genome evolution models root the tree of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harish, Ajith; Kurland, Charles G

    2017-07-01

    A reliable phylogenetic reconstruction of the evolutionary history of contemporary species depends on a robust identification of the universal common ancestor (UCA) at the root of the Tree of Life (ToL). That root polarizes the tree so that the evolutionary succession of ancestors to descendants is discernable. In effect, the root determines the branching order and the direction of character evolution. Typically, conventional phylogenetic analyses implement time-reversible models of evolution for which character evolution is un-polarized. Such practices leave the root and the direction of character evolution undefined by the data used to construct such trees. In such cases, rooting relies on theoretic assumptions and/or the use of external data to interpret unrooted trees. The most common rooting method, the outgroup method is clearly inapplicable to the ToL, which has no outgroup. Both here and in the accompanying paper (Harish and Kurland, 2017) we have explored the theoretical and technical issues related to several rooting methods. We demonstrate (1) that Genome-level characters and evolution models are necessary for species phylogeny reconstructions. By the same token, standard practices exploiting sequence-based methods that implement gene-scale substitution models do not root species trees; (2) Modeling evolution of complex genomic characters and processes that are non-reversible and non-stationary is required to reconstruct the polarized evolution of the ToL; (3) Rooting experiments and Bayesian model selection tests overwhelmingly support the earlier finding that akaryotes and eukaryotes are sister clades that descend independently from UCA (Harish and Kurland, 2013); (4) Consistent ancestral state reconstructions from independent genome samplings confirm the previous finding that UCA features three fourths of the unique protein domain-superfamilies encoded by extant genomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and Société Française de Biochimie et Biologie

  10. The Evolution of Galaxy Clustering in Hierarchical Models

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    The main ingredients of recent semi-analytic models of galaxy formation are summarised. We present predictions for the galaxy clustering properties of a well specified LCDM model whose parameters are constrained by observed local galaxy properties. We present preliminary predictions for evolution of clustering that can be probed with deep pencil beam surveys.

  11. Simple model of self-organized biological evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan; Derrida, Bernard; Flyvbjerg, Henrik; Jackson, Andrew D.; Wettig, Tilo

    1994-08-01

    We give an exact solution of a recently proposed self-organized critical model of biological evolution. We show that the model has a power law distribution of durations of coevolutionary ``avalanches'' with a mean field exponent 3/2. We also calculate analytically the finite size effects which cut off this power law at times of the order of the system size.

  12. Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Claessens, L.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The interest in landscape evolution models (LEMs) that simulate multiple landscape processes is growing. However, modelling multiple processes constitutes a new starting point for which some aspects of the set up of LEMs must be re-evaluated. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the practic

  13. Optimality models in the age of experimental evolution and genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, J J; Wang, I-N

    2010-09-01

    Optimality models have been used to predict evolution of many properties of organisms. They typically neglect genetic details, whether by necessity or design. This omission is a common source of criticism, and although this limitation of optimality is widely acknowledged, it has mostly been defended rather than evaluated for its impact. Experimental adaptation of model organisms provides a new arena for testing optimality models and for simultaneously integrating genetics. First, an experimental context with a well-researched organism allows dissection of the evolutionary process to identify causes of model failure--whether the model is wrong about genetics or selection. Second, optimality models provide a meaningful context for the process and mechanics of evolution, and thus may be used to elicit realistic genetic bases of adaptation--an especially useful augmentation to well-researched genetic systems. A few studies of microbes have begun to pioneer this new direction. Incompatibility between the assumed and actual genetics has been demonstrated to be the cause of model failure in some cases. More interestingly, evolution at the phenotypic level has sometimes matched prediction even though the adaptive mutations defy mechanisms established by decades of classic genetic studies. Integration of experimental evolutionary tests with genetics heralds a new wave for optimality models and their extensions that does not merely emphasize the forces driving evolution.

  14. Application of the evolution theory in modelling of innovation diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Milan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The theory of evolution has found numerous analogies and applications in other scientific disciplines apart from biology. In that sense, today the so-called 'memetic-evolution' has been widely accepted. Memes represent a complex adaptable system, where one 'meme' represents an evolutional cultural element, i.e. the smallest unit of information which can be identified and used in order to explain the evolution process. Among others, the field of innovations has proved itself to be a suitable area where the theory of evolution can also be successfully applied. In this work the authors have started from the assumption that it is also possible to apply the theory of evolution in the modelling of the process of innovation diffusion. Based on the conducted theoretical research, the authors conclude that the process of innovation diffusion in the interpretation of a 'meme' is actually the process of imitation of the 'meme' of innovation. Since during the process of their replication certain 'memes' show a bigger success compared to others, that eventually leads to their natural selection. For the survival of innovation 'memes', their manifestations are of key importance in the sense of their longevity, fruitfulness and faithful replicating. The results of the conducted research have categorically confirmed the assumption of the possibility of application of the evolution theory with the innovation diffusion with the help of innovation 'memes', which opens up the perspectives for some new researches on the subject.

  15. Modelling evolution in a spatial continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, N. H.; Etheridge, A. M.; Véber, A.

    2013-01-01

    We survey a class of models for spatially structured populations which we have called spatial Λ-Fleming-Viot processes. They arise from a flexible framework for modelling in which the key innovation is that random genetic drift is driven by a Poisson point process of spatial 'events'. We demonstrate how this overcomes some of the obstructions to modelling populations which evolve in two-(and higher-) dimensional spatial continua, how its predictions match phenomena observed in data and how it fits with classical models. Finally we outline some directions for future research.

  16. On the General Class of Models of Adiabatic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jie; Lu, Songfeng; Liu, Fang

    2016-10-01

    The general class of models of adiabatic evolution was proposed to speed up the usual adiabatic computation in the case of quantum search problem. It was shown [8] that, by temporarily increasing the ground state energy of a time-dependent Hamiltonian to a suitable quantity, the quantum computation can perform the calculation in time complexity O(1). But it is also known that if the overlap between the initial and final states of the system is zero, then the computation based on the generalized models of adiabatic evolution can break down completely. In this paper, we find another severe limitation for this class of adiabatic evolution-based algorithms, which should be taken into account in applications. That is, it is still possible that this kind of evolution designed to deal with the quantum search problem fails completely if the interpolating paths in the system Hamiltonian are chosen inappropriately, while the usual adiabatic evolutions can do the same job relatively effectively. This implies that it is not always recommendable to use nonlinear paths in adiabatic computation. On the contrary, the usual simple adiabatic evolution may be sufficient for effective use.

  17. Modeling the connection between development and evolution: Preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mjolsness, E.; Reinitz, J. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Garrett, C.D. [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Computer Science; Sharp, D.H. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-07-29

    In this paper we outline a model which incorporates development processes into an evolutionary frame work. The model consists of three sectors describing development, genetics, and the selective environment. The formulation of models governing each sector uses dynamical grammars to describe processes in which state variables evolve in a quantitative fashion, and the number and type of participating biological entities can change. This program has previously been elaborated for development. Its extension to the other sectors of the model is discussed here and forms the basis for further approximations. A specific implementation of these ideas is described for an idealized model of the evolution of a multicellular organism. While this model doe not describe an actual biological system, it illustrates the interplay of development and evolution. Preliminary results of numerical simulations of this idealized model are presented.

  18. Order reduction for a model of marine bacteriophage evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagliarini, Silvia; Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2017-02-01

    A typical mechanistic model of viral evolution necessary includes several time scales which can differ by orders of magnitude. Such a diversity of time scales makes analysis of these models difficult. Reducing the order of a model is highly desirable when handling such a model. A typical approach applied to such slow-fast (or singularly perturbed) systems is the time scales separation technique. Constructing the so-called quasi-steady-state approximation is the usual first step in applying the technique. While this technique is commonly applied, in some cases its straightforward application can lead to unsatisfactory results. In this paper we construct the quasi-steady-state approximation for a model of evolution of marine bacteriophages based on the Beretta-Kuang model. We show that for this particular model the quasi-steady-state approximation is able to produce only qualitative but not quantitative fit.

  19. Continuous "in vitro" Evolution of a Ribozyme Ligase: A Model Experiment for the Evolution of a Biomolecule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledbetter, Michael P.; Hwang, Tony W.; Stovall, Gwendolyn M.; Ellington, Andrew D.

    2013-01-01

    Evolution is a defining criterion of life and is central to understanding biological systems. However, the timescale of evolutionary shifts in phenotype limits most classroom evolution experiments to simple probability simulations. "In vitro" directed evolution (IVDE) frequently serves as a model system for the study of Darwinian…

  20. Continuous "in vitro" Evolution of a Ribozyme Ligase: A Model Experiment for the Evolution of a Biomolecule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledbetter, Michael P.; Hwang, Tony W.; Stovall, Gwendolyn M.; Ellington, Andrew D.

    2013-01-01

    Evolution is a defining criterion of life and is central to understanding biological systems. However, the timescale of evolutionary shifts in phenotype limits most classroom evolution experiments to simple probability simulations. "In vitro" directed evolution (IVDE) frequently serves as a model system for the study of Darwinian…

  1. The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Momentum, Kinetic Energy and Force in Tsunami Waves during Breaking and Inundation

    CERN Document Server

    Marivela, Roberto; Synolakis, Costas

    2016-01-01

    A plethora of studies in the past decade describe tsunami hazards and study their evolution from the source to the target coastline, but mainly focus on coastal inundation and maximum runup. Nonetheless, anecdotal reports from eyewitnesses, photographs and videos suggest counterintuitive flow dynamics, for example rapid initial acceleration when the wave first strikes the initial shoreline. Further, the details of the flow field at or within tens of meters of the shoreline are exquisitely important in determining damage to structures and evacuation times. Based on a set of three-dimensional numerical simulations using solitary waves as a model, we show the spatial-temporal distribution of the flow momentum, kinetic energy and force during the breaking process. We infer that the flow reaches its highest destructive capacity not when flow momentum or kinetic energy reach their maxima, but when flow force reaches its. This occurs in the initial shoreline environment, which needs to be considered in nearshore str...

  2. Detecting Character Dependencies in Stochastic Models of Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarty, Deeparnab; Kannan, Sampath; Tian, Kevin

    2016-03-01

    Stochastic models of biological evolution generally assume that different characters (runs of the stochastic process) are independent and identically distributed. In this article we determine the asymptotic complexity of detecting dependence for some fairly general models of evolution, but simple models of dependence. A key difference from much of the previous work is that our algorithms work without knowledge of the tree topology. Specifically, we consider various stochastic models of evolution ranging from the common ones used by biologists (such as Cavender-Farris-Neyman and Jukes-Cantor models) to very general ones where evolution of different characters can be governed by different transition matrices on each edge of the evolutionary tree (phylogeny). We also consider several models of dependence between two characters. In the most specific model, on each edge of the phylogeny the joint distribution of the dependent characters undergoes a perturbation of a fixed magnitude, in a fixed direction from what it would be if the characters were evolving independently. More general dependence models don't require such a strong "signal." Instead they only require that on each edge, the perturbation of the joint distribution has a significant component in a specific direction. Our main results are nearly tight bounds on the induced or operator norm of the transition matrices that would allow us to detect dependence efficiently for most models of evolution and dependence that we consider. We make essential use of a new concentration result for multistate random variables of a Markov random field on arbitrary trivalent trees: We show that the random variable counting the number of leaves in any particular state has variance that is subquadratic in the number of leaves.

  3. Neutral evolution: A null model for language dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Blythe, R A

    2011-01-01

    We review the task of aligning simple models for language dynamics with relevant empirical data, motivated by the fact that this is rarely attempted in practice despite an abundance of abstract models. We propose that one way to meet this challenge is through the careful construction of null models. We argue in particular that rejection of a null model must have important consequences for theories about language dynamics if modelling is truly to be worthwhile. Our main claim is that the stochastic process of neutral evolution (also known as genetic drift or random copying) is a viable null model for language dynamics. We survey empirical evidence in favour and against neutral evolution as a mechanism behind historical language changes, highlighting the theoretical implications in each case.

  4. Seasonal shoreline behaviours along the arcuate Niger Delta coast: Complex interaction between fluvial and marine processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Ding, Dong; Ma, Yanyan; Xu, Jishang

    2016-07-01

    Deltaic coasts are dynamic geomorphic systems where continuous changes occur on diverse spatial and temporal scales, and these changes constitute an important aspect of their evolution. Based on three-year satellite-derived shoreline data coupled with re-analyzed wave data and hydro-meteorological data, a comprehensive analysis of the dominant processes governing the seasonal shoreline changes along the oil-rich arcuate section of the Niger Delta, in the Nigerian Shelf of the North Atlantic Ocean has been undertaken. Shoreline analysis results show that the delta coast is characterized by predominant summer erosion and maximum winter accretion. Between 2010 and 2012, erosion dominated over accretion and a total of 9.1 km2 deltaic land was lost to coastline erosion at an annual average erosion rate of 4.55±1.21 km2/yr. A greater understanding of the dominant factors responsible for the change is presented. Shoreline change interactions with cross-shore sediment exchange processes are prominent at seasonal timescale (Summer R2=-0.85 and Winter R2=0.7), and interannual timescale (R2=-0.93) with longshore sediment transport processes. Correlation analysis reveals a gradual degeneration of relationship between the suspended sediment flux and coastal hydrodynamics beginning from 2010 to 2012 (cross-shore transport, R=0.68, 0.36 and 0.2 for 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively; longshore transport R=0.63, 0.44 and 0.2 for 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively). The study concludes that the effect of fluvial sediment reduction to the delta coast due to capital dredging of the Lower Niger River channels between 2009 and 2012, and periodic fluctuations in the nearshore hydrodynamics processes caused the observed annual shoreline erosion that eventually forced the deltaic coastline toward a state of landward migration during the study period.

  5. Structure of the scientific community modelling the evolution of resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-12-05

    Faced with the recurrent evolution of resistance to pesticides and drugs, the scientific community has developed theoretical models aimed at identifying the main factors of this evolution and predicting the efficiency of resistance management strategies. The evolutionary forces considered by these models are generally similar for viruses, bacteria, fungi, plants or arthropods facing drugs or pesticides, so interaction between scientists working on different biological organisms would be expected. We tested this by analysing co-authorship and co-citation networks using a database of 187 articles published from 1977 to 2006 concerning models of resistance evolution to all major classes of pesticides and drugs. These analyses identified two main groups. One group, led by ecologists or agronomists, is interested in agricultural crop or stock pests and diseases. It mainly uses a population genetics approach to model the evolution of resistance to insecticidal proteins, insecticides, herbicides, antihelminthic drugs and miticides. By contrast, the other group, led by medical scientists, is interested in human parasites and mostly uses epidemiological models to study the evolution of resistance to antibiotic and antiviral drugs. Our analyses suggested that there is also a small scientific group focusing on resistance to antimalaria drugs, and which is only poorly connected with the two larger groups. The analysis of cited references indicates that each of the two large communities publishes its research in a different set of literature and has its own keystone references: citations with a large impact in one group are almost never cited by the other. We fear the lack of exchange between the two communities might slow progress concerning resistance evolution which is currently a major issue for society.

  6. Modeling microstructural evolution of multiple texture components during recrystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vandermeer, R.A.; Juul Jensen, D.

    1994-01-01

    using stereological point and lineal measurements of microstructural properties in combination with EBSP analysis for orientation determinations. The potential of the models to describe the observed recrystallization behavior of heavily cold-rolled commercial aluminum was demonstrated. A successful MPM......Models were formulated in an effort to characterize recrystallization in materials with multiple texture components. The models are based on a microstructural path methodology (MPM). Experimentally the microstructural evolution of conmmercial aluminum during recrystallization was characterized...

  7. Evolution analysis of the states of the EZ model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Qing-Hua; Ding Yi-Ming; Dong Hong-Guang

    2009-01-01

    Based on suitable choice of states,this paper studies the stability of the equilibrium state of the EZ model by regarding the evolution of the EZ model as a Markov chain and by showing that the Markov chain is ergodic.The Markov analysis is applied to the EZ model with small number of agents,the exact equilibrium state for N=5 and numerical results for N=18 are obtained.

  8. [Attempt at computer modeling of evolution of human society].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levchenko, V F; Menshutkin, V V

    2009-01-01

    A model of evolution of human society and biosphere, which is based on the concepts of V. I. Vernadskii about noosphere and of L. N. Gumilev about ethnogenesis is developed and studied. The mathematical apparatus of the model is composition of finite stochastic automata. By using this model, a possibility of the global ecological crisis is demonstrated in the case of preservation of the current tendencies of interaction of the biosphere and the human civilization.

  9. Shoreline Delineation and Land Reclamation Change Detection Using Landsat Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, M. I.; Ahmad, M. A.; Kaamin, M.; Izhar, M. F. N.

    2016-07-01

    This study is conducted on the usage of remote sensing images from several different years in order to analyze the changes of shoreline and land cover of the area. Remote sensing images used in this study are the data captured by the Landsat satellite. The images are projecting the land surface in 30 by 30 meter resolution and it is processed by the ENVI software. ENVI is able to change each digital number of the pixels on the images into specific value according to the applied model for classification in which could be used as an approach in calculating the area different classes based from the images itself. Therefore, using this method, the changes on the coastal area are possible to be determined. Analysis of the shoreline and land reclamation around the coastal area is integrated with the land use changes to determine its impact. The study shows that Batu Pahat area might have undergone land reclamation whereas in Pasir Gudang is experiencing substantial amount of erosion. Besides, the changes of land use in both areas were considered to be rapid and due to the results obtained from this study, the issues may be brought about for the local authority awareness action.

  10. Shoreline oiling from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Zachary; Zengel, Scott; Baker, Mary; Steinhoff, Marla; Fricano, Gail; Rouhani, Shahrokh; Michel, Jacqueline

    2016-06-15

    We build on previous work to construct a comprehensive database of shoreline oiling exposure from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill by compiling field and remotely-sensed datasets to support oil exposure and injury quantification. We compiled a spatial database of shoreline segments with attributes summarizing habitat, oiling category and timeline. We present new simplified oil exposure classes for both beaches and coastal wetland habitats derived from this database integrating both intensity and persistence of oiling on the shoreline over time. We document oiling along 2113km out of 9545km of surveyed shoreline, an increase of 19% from previously published estimates and representing the largest marine oil spill in history by length of shoreline oiled. These data may be used to generate maps and calculate summary statistics to assist in quantifying and understanding the scope, extent, and spatial distribution of shoreline oil exposure as a result of the DWH incident.

  11. A Novel Software Evolution Model Based on Software Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Weifeng; Li, Bing; Ma, Yutao; Liu, Jing

    Many published papers analyzed the forming mechanisms and evolution laws of OO software systems from software reuse, software pattern, etc. There, however, have been fewer models so far merely built on the software components such as methods, classes, etc. and their interactions. In this paper, a novel Software Evolution Model based on Software Networks (called SEM-SN) is proposed. It uses software network at class level to represent software systems, and uses software network’s dynamical generating process to simulate activities in real software development process such as new classes’ dynamical creations and their dynamical interactions with already existing classes. It also introduces the concept of node/edge ageing to describe the decaying of classes with time. Empirical results on eight open-source Object-Oriented (OO) software systems demonstrate that SCM-SN roughly describes the evolution process of software systems and the emergence of their complex network characteristics.

  12. Adaptive evolution on a continuous lattice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claudino, Elder S.; Lyra, M. L.; Gleria, Iram; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2013-03-01

    In the current work, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of a spatially structured population model defined on a continuous lattice. In the model, individuals disperse at a constant rate v and competition is local and delimited by the competition radius R. Due to dispersal, the neighborhood size (number of individuals competing for reproduction) fluctuates over time. Here we address how these new variables affect the adaptive process. While the fixation probabilities of beneficial mutations are roughly the same as in a panmitic population for small fitness effects s, a dependence on v and R becomes more evident for large s. These quantities also strongly influence fixation times, but their dependencies on s are well approximated by s-1/2, which means that the speed of the genetic wave front is proportional to s. Most important is the observation that the model exhibits a dual behavior displaying a power-law growth for the fixation rate and speed of adaptation with the beneficial mutation rate, as observed in other spatially structured population models, while simultaneously showing a nonsaturating behavior for the speed of adaptation with the population size N, as in homogeneous populations.

  13. Modeling the evolution of climate-sensitive Arctic subsea permafrost in regions of extensive gas expulsion at the West Yamal shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnov, Alexey; Mienert, Jurgen; Serov, Pavel

    2014-11-01

    Thawing subsea permafrost controls methane release from the Russian Arctic shelf having a considerable impact on the climate-sensitive Arctic environment. Expulsions of methane from shallow Russian Arctic shelf areas may continue to rise in response to intense degradation of relict subsea permafrost. Here we show modeling of the permafrost evolution from the Late Pleistocene to present time at the West Yamal shelf. Modeling results suggest a highly dynamic permafrost system that directly responds to even minor variations of lower and upper boundary conditions, e.g., geothermal heat flux from below and/or bottom water temperature changes from above permafrost. Scenarios of permafrost evolution show a potentially nearest landward modern extent of the permafrost at the West Yamal shelf limited by ~17 m isobaths, whereas its farthest seaward extent coincides with ~100 m isobaths. The model also predicts seaward tapering of relict permafrost with a maximal thickness of 275-390 m near the shoreline. Previous field observations detected extensive emissions of free gas into the water column at the transition zone between today's shallow water permafrost (20 m). The model adapts well to corresponding heat flux and ocean temperature data, providing crucial information about the modern permafrost conditions. It shows current locations of upper and lower permafrost boundaries and evidences for possible release of methane from the seabed to the hydrosphere in a warming Arctic.

  14. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    is composed of 4 submodels: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on an energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations...... to compute the nearshore depth-averaged wave-induced current velocities and mean water level changes, a sediment transport model to compute the local total sediment transport rates occurring under the action of wind waves, and a bottom evolution model to compute the bed level changes in time based...... on the gradients of sediment transport rates in cross-shore and longshore directions. The developed models are applied successfully to the SANDYDUCK field experiments and to some conceptual benchmark cases including simulation of rip currents around beach cusps, beach evolution around a single shore perpendicular...

  15. Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Lazarus

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

  16. Evolution: Ocean Models Reveal Life in Deep Seas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eizaguirre, Christophe

    2016-09-26

    Even though the deep sea represents the largest area in the world, evolution of species from those environments remains largely unstudied. A series of recent papers indicate that combining molecular tools with biophysical models can help us resolve some of these deep mysteries.

  17. Modeling river dune evolution using a parameterization of flow separation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries J.; Dohmen-Janssen, C. Marjolein; Hulscher, Susanne J.M.H.; Termes, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an idealized morphodynamic model to predict river dune evolution. The flow field is solved in a vertical plane assuming hydrostatic pressure conditions. The sediment transport is computed using a Meyer-Peter–Müller type of equation, including gravitational bed slope effects and a

  18. Shoreline monitoring programs for oil spills-of-opportunity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harper, J.R; Owens, E.H

    1985-01-01

    This report outlines procedures for conducting shoreline monitoring programs of opportunity for accidental oil spills, the procedures outlined apply to documentation of oil contamination levels only...

  19. Evolution of a sustainable surgical delivery model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, William P

    2010-09-01

    For the past 28 years, Operation Smile has mobilized thousands of volunteers to provide life-changing cleft lip, cleft palate, and other facial deformity surgery to more than 150,000 children in countries all over the world. Our mission is to provide surgical care for children with the goal of developing sustainable health care delivery models for surgical services worldwide. For more than a quarter century, we have learned that good judgment comes from experience and that experience comes from bad judgment. However, it has been woven throughout this sometimes painful, always exhilarating growth process in which we have realized that our mission had so much more power than we initially anticipated that it would. Originally, we focused on the face of a child and our ability to provide a surgery that would change that child's life forever. Today, we still stand in awe of the transformative power of this experience, but we have also realized the great power that lies in educating medical professionals and providing state-of-the-art equipment. For us, action took shape in the form of us establishing a business model at home and in each of our partner countries. This included setting up financial reporting systems and creating program models that organized volunteers to provide care for children outside the reach of where surgery was currently available. Through our journey, we have realized that there is power in the healed face of a child. That moment gives us the opportunity to feel the passion for the service we have the privilege to provide. It is that emotion that leads us to action.

  20. Evolution and physics in comparative protein structure modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiser, András; Feig, Michael; Brooks, Charles L; Sali, Andrej

    2002-06-01

    From a physical perspective, the native structure of a protein is a consequence of physical forces acting on the protein and solvent atoms during the folding process. From a biological perspective, the native structure of proteins is a result of evolution over millions of years. Correspondingly, there are two types of protein structure prediction methods, de novo prediction and comparative modeling. We review comparative protein structure modeling and discuss the incorporation of physical considerations into the modeling process. A good starting point for achieving this aim is provided by comparative modeling by satisfaction of spatial restraints. Incorporation of physical considerations is illustrated by an inclusion of solvation effects into the modeling of loops.

  1. Modeling fracture porosity evolution in dolostone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Julia F. W.; Lander, Robert H.; Reed, Robert M.; Laubach, Stephen E.

    2010-09-01

    Opening-mode fractures in dolostones buried to depths of ˜1-5 km contain synkinematic dolomite cement, the amount and internal structure of which has a systematic relationship to fracture size. Narrow fractures (cement or cement with a crack-seal texture that indicates multiple incremental openings. Wider fractures can preserve considerable effective porosity, but anomalously thick dolomite cement bridges are commonly present in fractures that are otherwise lined with a thin veneer of cement. Dolomite bridges resemble quartz bridges that are common in fractured sandstones. We developed a geometric crystal growth model for synkinematic dolomite fracture fill in fractured dolostones, where periodic incremental fracture-opening events are introduced with concurrent cement growth. We assumed constant temperature and supersaturation with respect to dolomite. A key assumption in the model is that rapid dolomite accumulation within bridges is governed by high cement-growth rates on repeatedly broken grain surfaces during the process of crack seal. Slower cement-growth rates occur on euhedral crystals. This assumption is made on the basis of a comparison with quartz cement growth in fractured sandstones. Simulations with different fracture-opening rates mimic bridge and lining cement morphologies, including characteristic rhombic shapes of dolomite bridges.

  2. Diagnostics and future evolution analysis of the two parametric models

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Guang; Meng, Xinhe

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we apply three diagnostics including $Om$, Statefinder hierarchy and the growth rate of perturbations into discriminating the two parametric models for the effective pressure with the $\\Lambda$CDM model. By using the $Om$ diagnostic, we find that both the model 1 and the model 2 can be hardly distinguished from each other as well as the $\\Lambda$CDM model in terms of 68\\% confidence level. As a supplement, by using the Statefinder hierarchy diagnostics and the growth rate of perturbations, we discover that not only can our two parametric models be well distinguished from $\\Lambda$CDM model, but also, by comparing with $Om$ diagnostic, the model 1 and the model 2 can be distinguished better from each other. In addition, we also explore the fate of universe evolution of our two models by means of the rip analysis.

  3. Modelling the spectral evolution of classical double radio sources

    CERN Document Server

    Manolakou, K

    2002-01-01

    The spectral evolution of powerful double radio galaxies (FR II's) is thought to be determined by the acceleration of electrons at the termination shock of the jet, their transport through the bright head region into the lobes and the production of the radio emission by synchrotron radiation in the lobes. Models presented to date incorporate some of these processes in prescribing the electron distribution which enters the lobes. We have extended these models to include a description of electron acceleration at the relativistic termination shock and a selection of transport models for the head region. These are coupled to the evolution of the electron spectrum in the lobes under the influence of losses due to adiabatic expansion, by inverse Compton scattering on the cosmic background radiation and by synchrotron radiation. The evolutionary tracks predicted by this model are compared to observation using the power/source-size (P-D) diagram. We find that the simplest scenario, in which accelerated particles suff...

  4. A Solvable Model of Species Body Mass Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Clauset, Aaron

    2008-01-01

    We present a quantitative model for the biological evolution of species body masses within large groups of related species, e.g., terrestrial mammals, in which body mass M evolves according to branching (speciating) multiplicative diffusion and an extinction probability that increases logarithmically with mass. We describe this evolution in terms of a convection-diffusion-reaction equation for ln M. The steady-state behavior is in good agreement with empirical data on recent terrestrial mammals, and the time-dependent behavior also agrees with data on extinct mammal species between 95 - 50 million years ago.

  5. Simple model of self-organized biological evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Boer, J.; Derrida, B.; Flyvbjerg, H.; Jackson, A.D.; Wettig, T. (Department of Physics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794-3800 (United States) The Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, 20 Clarkson Road, Cambridge, CB4 0EH (United Kingdom) Laboratoire de Physique Statistique, Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris (France) Service de Physique Theorique, Centre de Etudes Nucleaires de Saclay, F-91191, Gif-Sur-Yvette (France) CONNECT, The Niels Bohr Institute, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark))

    1994-08-08

    We give an exact solution of a recently proposed self-organized critical model of biological evolution. We show that the model has a power law distribution of durations of coevolutionary avalanches'' with a mean field exponent 3/2. We also calculate analytically the finite size effects which cut off this power law at times of the order of the system size.

  6. Landscape evolution models: A review of their fundamental equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Alex; Darbon, Jérôme; Morel, Jean-Michel

    2014-08-01

    This paper reviews the main physical laws proposed in landscape evolution models (LEMs). It discusses first the main partial differential equations involved in these models and their variants. These equations govern water runoff, stream incision, regolith-bedrock interaction, hillslope evolution, and sedimentation. A synthesis of existing LEMs is proposed. It proposes three models with growing complexity and with a growing number of components: two-equation models with only two components, governing water and bedrock evolution; three-equation models with three components where water, bedrock, and sediment interact; and finally models with four equations and four interacting components, namely water, bedrock, suspended sediment, and regolith. This analysis is not a mere compilation of existing LEMs. It attempts at giving the simplest and most general physically consistent set of equations, coping with all requirements stated in LEMs and LEM software. Three issues are in particular addressed and hopefully resolved. The first one is a correct formulation of the water transport equation down slopes. A general formulation for this equation is proposed, coping not only with the simplest form computing the drainage area but also with a sound energy dissipation argument associated with the Saint-Venant shallow water equations. The second issue arises from the coexistence of two competing modes, namely the detachment-limited erosion mode on hillslopes, and the transport-limited sediment transport on river beds. The third issue (linked to the second) is the fact that no conservation law is available for material in these two modes. A simple solution proposed to resolve these issues is the introduction, as suggested by several authors, of an additional variable for suspended sediment load in water. With only three variables and three equations, the above-mentioned contradictions seem to be eliminated. Several numerical experiments on real digital elevation models (DEMs

  7. Protoplanetary Disk Structure With Grain Evolution: the ANDES Model

    CERN Document Server

    Akimkin, V; Wiebe, D; Semenov, D; Pavlyuchenkov, Ya; Vasyunin, A; Birnstiel, T; Henning, Th

    2013-01-01

    We present a self-consistent model of a protoplanetary disk: 'ANDES' ('AccretioN disk with Dust Evolution and Sedimentation'). ANDES is based on a flexible and extendable modular structure that includes 1) a 1+1D frequency-dependent continuum radiative transfer module, 2) a module to calculate the chemical evolution using an extended gas-grain network with UV/X-ray-driven processes surface reactions, 3) a module to calculate the gas thermal energy balance, and 4) a 1+1D module that simulates dust grain evolution. For the first time, grain evolution and time-dependent molecular chemistry are included in a protoplanetary disk model. We find that grain growth and sedimentation of large grains to the disk midplane lead to a dust-depleted atmosphere. Consequently, dust and gas temperatures become higher in the inner disk (R 50 AU), in comparison with the disk model with pristine dust. The response of disk chemical structure to the dust growth and sedimentation is twofold. First, due to higher transparency a partl...

  8. Neutral null models for diversity in serial transfer evolution experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harpak, Arbel; Sella, Guy

    2014-09-01

    Evolution experiments with microorganisms coupled with genome-wide sequencing now allow for the systematic study of population genetic processes under a wide range of conditions. In learning about these processes in natural, sexual populations, neutral models that describe the behavior of diversity and divergence summaries have played a pivotal role. It is therefore natural to ask whether neutral models, suitably modified, could be useful in the context of evolution experiments. Here, we introduce coalescent models for polymorphism and divergence under the most common experimental evolution assay, a serial transfer experiment. This relatively simple setting allows us to address several issues that could affect diversity patterns in evolution experiments, whether selection is operating or not: the transient behavior of neutral polymorphism in an experiment beginning from a single clone, the effects of randomness in the timing of cell division and noisiness in population size in the dilution stage. In our analyses and discussion, we emphasize the implications for experiments aimed at measuring diversity patterns and making inferences about population genetic processes based on these measurements.

  9. Natural Models for Evolution on Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Mertzios, George B; Raptopoulos, Christoforos; Spirakis, Paul G

    2011-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics have been traditionally studied in the context of homogeneous populations, mainly described my the Moran process. Recently, this approach has been generalized in \\cite{LHN} by arranging individuals on the nodes of a network. Undirected networks seem to have a smoother behavior than directed ones, and thus it is more challenging to find suppressors/amplifiers of selection. In this paper we present the first class of undirected graphs which act as suppressors of selection, by achieving a fixation probability that is at most one half of that of the complete graph, as the number of vertices increases. Moreover, we provide some generic upper and lower bounds for the fixation probability of general undirected graphs. As our main contribution, we introduce the natural alternative of the model proposed in \\cite{LHN}, where all individuals interact simultaneously and the result is a compromise between aggressive and non-aggressive individuals. That is, the behavior of the individuals in our new m...

  10. Disk galaxy formation and evolution models up to intermediate redshifts

    CERN Document Server

    Firmani, C

    1999-01-01

    Making use of a seminumerical method we develop a scenario of disk galaxy formation and evolution in the framework of inflationary cold dark matter (CDM) cosmologies. Within the virializing dark matter halos, disks in centrifugal equilibrium are built-up and their galactic evolution is followed through an approach which considers the gravitational interactions among the galaxy components, the turbulence and energy balance of the ISM, the star formation (SF) process due to disk gravitational instabilities, the stellar evolution and the secular formation of a bulge. We find that the main properties and correlations of disk galaxies are determined by the mass, the hierarchical mass aggregation history and the primordial angular momentum. The models follow the same trends across the Hubble sequence than the observed galaxies. The predicted TF relation is in good agreement with the observations except for the standart CDM. While the slope of this relation remains almost constant up to intermediate redshifts, its z...

  11. Assessing shoreline exposure and oyster habitat suitability maximizes potential success for sustainable shoreline protection using restored oyster reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. La Peyre

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Oyster reefs provide valuable ecosystem services that contribute to coastal resilience. Unfortunately, many reefs have been degraded or removed completely, and there are increased efforts to restore oysters in many coastal areas. In particular, much attention has recently been given to the restoration of shellfish reefs along eroding shorelines to reduce erosion. Such fringing reef approaches, however, often lack empirical data to identify locations where reefs are most effective in reducing marsh erosion, or fully take into account habitat suitability. Using monitoring data from 5 separate fringing reef projects across coastal Louisiana, we quantify shoreline exposure (fetch + wind direction + wind speed and reef impacts on shoreline retreat. Our results indicate that fringing oyster reefs have a higher impact on shoreline retreat at higher exposure shorelines. At higher exposures, fringing reefs reduced marsh edge erosion an average of 1.0 m y−1. Using these data, we identify ranges of shoreline exposure values where oyster reefs are most effective at reducing marsh edge erosion and apply this knowledge to a case study within one Louisiana estuary. In Breton Sound estuary, we calculate shoreline exposure at 500 random points and then overlay a habitat suitability index for oysters. This method and the resulting visualization show areas most likely to support sustainable oyster populations as well as significantly reduce shoreline erosion. Our results demonstrate how site selection criteria, which include shoreline exposure and habitat suitability, are critical to ensuring greater positive impacts and longevity of oyster reef restoration projects.

  12. Assessing shoreline exposure and oyster habitat suitability maximizes potential success for sustainable shoreline protection using restored oyster reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaPeyre, Megan K.; Serra, Kayla; Joyner, T. Andrew; Humphries, Austin T.

    2015-01-01

    Oyster reefs provide valuable ecosystem services that contribute to coastal resilience. Unfortunately, many reefs have been degraded or removed completely, and there are increased efforts to restore oysters in many coastal areas. In particular, much attention has recently been given to the restoration of shellfish reefs along eroding shorelines to reduce erosion. Such fringing reef approaches, however, often lack empirical data to identify locations where reefs are most effective in reducing marsh erosion, or fully take into account habitat suitability. Using monitoring data from 5 separate fringing reef projects across coastal Louisiana, we quantify shoreline exposure (fetch + wind direction + wind speed) and reef impacts on shoreline retreat. Our results indicate that fringing oyster reefs have a higher impact on shoreline retreat at higher exposure shorelines. At higher exposures, fringing reefs reduced marsh edge erosion an average of 1.0 m y−1. Using these data, we identify ranges of shoreline exposure values where oyster reefs are most effective at reducing marsh edge erosion and apply this knowledge to a case study within one Louisiana estuary. In Breton Sound estuary, we calculate shoreline exposure at 500 random points and then overlay a habitat suitability index for oysters. This method and the resulting visualization show areas most likely to support sustainable oyster populations as well as significantly reduce shoreline erosion. Our results demonstrate how site selection criteria, which include shoreline exposure and habitat suitability, are critical to ensuring greater positive impacts and longevity of oyster reef restoration projects.

  13. Assessing shoreline exposure and oyster habitat suitability maximizes potential success for sustainable shoreline protection using restored oyster reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Peyre, Megan K; Serra, Kayla; Joyner, T Andrew; Humphries, Austin

    2015-01-01

    Oyster reefs provide valuable ecosystem services that contribute to coastal resilience. Unfortunately, many reefs have been degraded or removed completely, and there are increased efforts to restore oysters in many coastal areas. In particular, much attention has recently been given to the restoration of shellfish reefs along eroding shorelines to reduce erosion. Such fringing reef approaches, however, often lack empirical data to identify locations where reefs are most effective in reducing marsh erosion, or fully take into account habitat suitability. Using monitoring data from 5 separate fringing reef projects across coastal Louisiana, we quantify shoreline exposure (fetch + wind direction + wind speed) and reef impacts on shoreline retreat. Our results indicate that fringing oyster reefs have a higher impact on shoreline retreat at higher exposure shorelines. At higher exposures, fringing reefs reduced marsh edge erosion an average of 1.0 m y(-1). Using these data, we identify ranges of shoreline exposure values where oyster reefs are most effective at reducing marsh edge erosion and apply this knowledge to a case study within one Louisiana estuary. In Breton Sound estuary, we calculate shoreline exposure at 500 random points and then overlay a habitat suitability index for oysters. This method and the resulting visualization show areas most likely to support sustainable oyster populations as well as significantly reduce shoreline erosion. Our results demonstrate how site selection criteria, which include shoreline exposure and habitat suitability, are critical to ensuring greater positive impacts and longevity of oyster reef restoration projects.

  14. Modeling evolution and immune system by cellular automata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bezzi, M. [Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati, Trieste (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia, Florence (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In this review the behavior of two different biological systems is investigated using cellular automata. Starting from this spatially extended approach it is also tried, in some cases, to reduce the complexity of the system introducing mean-field approximation, and solving (or trying to solve) these simplified systems. It is discussed the biological meaning of the results, the comparison with experimental data (if available) and the different features between spatially extended and mean-field versions. The biological systems considered in this review are the following: Darwinian evolution in simple ecosystems and immune system response. In the first section the main features of molecular evolution are introduced, giving a short survey of genetics for physicists and discussing some models for prebiotic systems and simple ecosystems. It is also introduced a cellular automaton model for studying a set of evolving individuals in a general fitness landscape, considering also the effects of co-evolution. In particular the process of species formation (speciation) is described in sect. 5. The second part deals with immune system modeling. The biological features of immune response are discussed, as well as it is introduced the concept of shape space and of idiotypic network. More detailed reviews which deal with immune system models (mainly focused on idiotypic network models) can be found. Other themes here discussed: the applications of CA to immune system modeling, two complex cellular automata for humoral and cellular immune response. Finally, it is discussed the biological data and the general conclusions are drawn in the last section.

  15. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  16. 75 FR 8997 - National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ... SPACE ADMINISTRATION National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration... Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) Shoreline Restoration and Infrastructure Protection Program (SRIPP). SUMMARY... from the Wallops Island shoreline and the infrastructure behind it. Alternative One, NASA's...

  17. Shoreline response to seismically induced land-level changes - A case study from West Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monecke, K.; Meilianda, E.; Walstra, D. J.; Hill, E.; Mc Adoo, B. G.; Qiu, Q.; Storms, J. E. A.; Masputri, A. S.; Mayasari, C. D.; Nasir, M.; Riandi, I.; Setiawan, A.; Templeton, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    A cross-shore morphodynamic model can be used to simulate shoreline recovery after extreme events, as shown here for the coast of West Aceh, Indonesia, a region largely affected by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and ensuing Indian Ocean tsunami. Subsidence of 50-100 cm and tsunami scouring during the 2004 event caused the complete destruction of the beach and the landward displacement of the western Acehnese coast by an average of 110 m. Modeled post-seismic land elevation changes as a result of afterslip and viscoelastic mantle relaxation, indicate rapid uplift of 4.4 cm/year in the year following the earthquake, but more moderate uplift rates of 1.4 cm/year since mid-2006. Comparing a series of topographic surveys and satellite images, we reconstruct the build-up of a new beach ridge along a 10 km long stretch of coastline in the years following the event. We then use the cross-shore model UNIBEST-TC developed for a wave-dominated sandy shoreline to determine the controlling factors of shoreline recovery. Input parameters include bathymetric data measured in 2015, grain size characteristics of offshore sediment samples, modeled wave data computed in 7m water depth and tidal elevation data from a nearby tide gauge station. After establishing a cross-shore profile in equilibrium with the prevailing hydrodynamic conditions, we simulate post-seismic land level changes for up to 10 years and compare to the observed coastal development. Our data indicates that the recovery of the Western Acehnese shoreline after the 2004 event was incomplete with the shoreline stabilizing 40-80 meter landward of its pre-2004 tsunami position. Measured variability in shoreline position in the order of a few tens of meters since 2009 can be attributed to seasonal wave climate variability related to the monsoon cycle. The effect of postseismic uplift on shoreline position is small and in the order of only a few meters over 10 years. In the near future, continuing post

  18. Reservoir pressure evolution model during exploration drilling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korotaev B. A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on the analysis of laboratory studies and literature data the method for estimating reservoir pressure in exploratory drilling has been proposed, it allows identify zones of abnormal reservoir pressure in the presence of seismic data on reservoir location depths. This method of assessment is based on developed at the end of the XX century methods using d- and σ-exponentials taking into account the mechanical drilling speed, rotor speed, bit load and its diameter, lithological constant and degree of rocks' compaction, mud density and "regional density". It is known that in exploratory drilling pulsation of pressure at the wellhead is observed. Such pulsation is a consequence of transferring reservoir pressure through clay. In the paper the mechanism for transferring pressure to the bottomhole as well as the behaviour of the clay layer during transmission of excess pressure has been described. A laboratory installation has been built, it has been used for modelling pressure propagation to the bottomhole of the well through a layer of clay. The bulge of the clay layer is established for 215.9 mm bottomhole diameter. Functional correlation of pressure propagation through the layer of clay has been determined and a reaction of the top clay layer has been shown to have bulge with a height of 25 mm. A pressure distribution scheme (balance has been developed, which takes into account the distance from layers with abnormal pressure to the bottomhole. A balance equation for reservoir pressure evaluation has been derived including well depth, distance from bottomhole to the top of the formation with abnormal pressure and density of clay.

  19. PROTOPLANETARY DISK STRUCTURE WITH GRAIN EVOLUTION: THE ANDES MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akimkin, V.; Wiebe, D.; Pavlyuchenkov, Ya. [Institute of Astronomy of the RAS, Pyatnitskaya str. 48, Moscow (Russian Federation); Zhukovska, S.; Semenov, D.; Henning, Th. [Max-Planck-Institute for Astronomy, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Vasyunin, A. [Department of Chemistry, The University of Virginia, VA (United States); Birnstiel, T., E-mail: akimkin@inasan.ru, E-mail: dwiebe@inasan.ru, E-mail: pavyar@inasan.ru, E-mail: zhukovska@mpia.de, E-mail: semenov@mpia.de, E-mail: henning@mpia.de, E-mail: anton.vasyunin@gmail.com, E-mail: tbirnstiel@cfa.harvard.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2013-03-20

    We present a self-consistent model of a protoplanetary disk: 'ANDES' ('AccretioN disk with Dust Evolution and Sedimentation'). ANDES is based on a flexible and extendable modular structure that includes (1) a 1+1D frequency-dependent continuum radiative transfer module, (2) a module to calculate the chemical evolution using an extended gas-grain network with UV/X-ray-driven processes and surface reactions, (3) a module to calculate the gas thermal energy balance, and (4) a 1+1D module that simulates dust grain evolution. For the first time, grain evolution and time-dependent molecular chemistry are included in a protoplanetary disk model. We find that grain growth and sedimentation of large grains onto the disk midplane lead to a dust-depleted atmosphere. Consequently, dust and gas temperatures become higher in the inner disk (R {approx}< 50 AU) and lower in the outer disk (R {approx}> 50 AU), in comparison with the disk model with pristine dust. The response of disk chemical structure to the dust growth and sedimentation is twofold. First, due to higher transparency a partly UV-shielded molecular layer is shifted closer to the dense midplane. Second, the presence of big grains in the disk midplane delays the freeze-out of volatile gas-phase species such as CO there, while in adjacent upper layers the depletion is still effective. Molecular concentrations and thus column densities of many species are enhanced in the disk model with dust evolution, e.g., CO{sub 2}, NH{sub 2}CN, HNO, H{sub 2}O, HCOOH, HCN, and CO. We also show that time-dependent chemistry is important for a proper description of gas thermal balance.

  20. Stochastic evolutions of dynamic traffic flow modeling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Xiqun (Michael); Shi, Qixin

    2015-01-01

    This book reveals the underlying mechanisms of complexity and stochastic evolutions of traffic flows. Using Eulerian and Lagrangian measurements, the authors propose lognormal headway/spacing/velocity distributions and subsequently develop a Markov car-following model to describe drivers’ random choices concerning headways/spacings, putting forward a stochastic fundamental diagram model for wide scattering flow-density points. In the context of highway onramp bottlenecks, the authors present a traffic flow breakdown probability model and spatial-temporal queuing model to improve the stability and reliability of road traffic flows. This book is intended for researchers and graduate students in the fields of transportation engineering and civil engineering.

  1. Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2013-01-01

    The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike‐slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right‐lateral strike‐slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non‐planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike‐slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

  2. Review of permeability evolution model for fractured porous media

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jianjun Ma

    2015-01-01

    The ability to capture permeability of fractured porous media plays a significant role in several engi-neering applications, including reservoir, mining, petroleum and geotechnical engineering. In order to solve fluid flow and coupled flow-deformation problems encountered in these engineering applications, both empirical and theoretical models had been proposed in the past few decades. Some of them are simple but still work in certain circumstances;others are complex but also need some modifications to be applicable. Thus, the understanding of state-of-the-art permeability evolution model would help researchers and engineers solve engineering problems through an appropriate approach. This paper summarizes permeability evolution models proposed by earlier and recent researchers with emphasis on their characteristics and limitations.

  3. Differential Evolution algorithm applied to FSW model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idagawa, H. S.; Santos, T. F. A.; Ramirez, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is a solid state welding process that can be modelled using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. These models use adjustable parameters to control the heat transfer and the heat input to the weld. These parameters are used to calibrate the model and they are generally determined using the conventional trial and error approach. Since this method is not very efficient, we used the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm to successfully determine these parameters. In order to improve the success rate and to reduce the computational cost of the method, this work studied different characteristics of the DE algorithm, such as the evolution strategy, the objective function, the mutation scaling factor and the crossover rate. The DE algorithm was tested using a friction stir weld performed on a UNS S32205 Duplex Stainless Steel.

  4. On Models of Nonlinear Evolution Paths in Adiabatic Quantum Algorithms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Jie; LU Song-Feng; Samuel L.Braunstein

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,we study two different nonlinear interpolating paths in adiabatic evolution algorithms for solving a particular class of quantum search problems where both the initial and final Hamiltonian are one-dimensional projector Hamiltonians on the corresponding ground state.If the overlap between the initial state and final state of the quantum system is not equal to zero,both of these models can provide a constant time speedup over the usual adiabatic algorithms by increasing some another corresponding "complexity".But when the initial state has a zero overlap with the solution state in the problem,the second model leads to an infinite time complexity of the algorithm for whatever interpolating functions being applied while the first one can still provide a constant running time.However,inspired by a related reference,a variant of the first model can be constructed which also fails for the problem when the overlap is exactly equal to zero if we want to make up the "intrinsic" fault of the second model — an increase in energy.Two concrete theorems are given to serve as explanations why neither of these two models can improve the usual adiabatic evolution algorithms for the phenomenon above.These just tell us what should be noted when using certain nonlinear evolution paths in adiabatic quantum algorithms for some special kind of problems.

  5. The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastichiadis, A.; Kazanas, D.

    2009-01-01

    The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approx. 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular. one can this may obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the (nu)F(sub nu), spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

  6. Late Quaternary MIS 6-8 shoreline features of pluvial Owens Lake, Owens Valley, eastern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayko, A.S.; Bacon, S.N.

    2008-01-01

    The chronologic history of pluvial Owens Lake along the eastern Sierra Nevada in Owens Valley, California, has previously been reported for the interval of time from ca. 25 calibrated ka to the present. However, the age, distribution, and paleoclimatic context of higher-elevation shoreline features have not been formally documented. We describe the location and characteristics of wave-formed erosional and depositional features, as well as fluvial strath terraces that grade into an older shoreline of pluvial Owens Lake. These pluvial-lacustrine features are described between the Olancha area to the south and Poverty Hills area to the north, and they appear to be vertically deformed -20 ?? 4 m across the active oblique-dextral Owens Valley fault zone. They occur at elevations from 1176 to 1182 m along the lower flanks of the Inyo Mountains and Coso Range east of the fault zone to as high as -1204 m west of the fault zone. This relict shoreline, referred to as the 1180 m shoreline, lies -20-40 m higher than the previously documented Last Glacial Maximum shoreline at -1160 m, which occupied the valley during marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). Crosscutting relations of wave-formed platforms, notches, and sandy beach deposits, as well as strath terraces on lava flows of the Big Pine volcanic field, bracket the age of the 1180 m shoreline to the time interval between ca. 340 ?? 60 ka and ca. 130 ?? 50 ka. This interval includes marine oxygen isotope stages 8-6 (MIS 8-6), corresponding to 260-240 ka and 185-130 ka, respectively. An additional age estimate for this shoreline is provided by a cosmogenic 36Cl model age of ca. 160 ?? 32 ka on reefal tufa at ???1170 m elevation from the southeastern margin of the valley. This 36Cl model age corroborates the constraining ages based on dated lava flows and refines the lake age to the MIS 6 interval. Documentation of this larger pluvial Owens Lake offers insight to the hydrologic balance along the east side of the southern Sierra

  7. Adaptive Multiscale Modeling of Geochemical Impacts on Fracture Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, S.; Trebotich, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Deng, H.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding fracture evolution is essential for many subsurface energy applications, including subsurface storage, shale gas production, fracking, CO2 sequestration, and geothermal energy extraction. Geochemical processes in particular play a significant role in the evolution of fractures through dissolution-driven widening, fines migration, and/or fracture sealing due to precipitation. One obstacle to understanding and exploiting geochemical fracture evolution is that it is a multiscale process. However, current geochemical modeling of fractures cannot capture this multi-scale nature of geochemical and mechanical impacts on fracture evolution, and is limited to either a continuum or pore-scale representation. Conventional continuum-scale models treat fractures as preferential flow paths, with their permeability evolving as a function (often, a cubic law) of the fracture aperture. This approach has the limitation that it oversimplifies flow within the fracture in its omission of pore scale effects while also assuming well-mixed conditions. More recently, pore-scale models along with advanced characterization techniques have allowed for accurate simulations of flow and reactive transport within the pore space (Molins et al., 2014, 2015). However, these models, even with high performance computing, are currently limited in their ability to treat tractable domain sizes (Steefel et al., 2013). Thus, there is a critical need to develop an adaptive modeling capability that can account for separate properties and processes, emergent and otherwise, in the fracture and the rock matrix at different spatial scales. Here we present an adaptive modeling capability that treats geochemical impacts on fracture evolution within a single multiscale framework. Model development makes use of the high performance simulation capability, Chombo-Crunch, leveraged by high resolution characterization and experiments. The modeling framework is based on the adaptive capability in Chombo

  8. Multi-Model approach to reconstruct the Mediterranean Freshwater Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Dirk; Marzocchi, Alice; Flecker, Rachel; Lunt, Dan; Hilgen, Frits; Meijer, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Today the Mediterranean Sea is isolated from the global ocean by the Strait of Gibraltar. This restricted nature causes the Mediterranean basin to react more sensitively to climatic and tectonic related phenomena than the global ocean. Not just eustatic sea-level and regional river run-off, but also gateway tectonics and connectivity between sub-basins are leaving an enhanced fingerprint in its geological record. To understand its evolution, it is crucial to understand how these different effects are coupled. The Miocene-Pliocene sedimentary record of the Mediterranean shows alternations in composition and colour and has been astronomically tuned. Around the Miocene-Pliocene Boundary the most extreme changes occur in the Mediterranean Sea. About 6% of the salt in the global ocean deposited in the Mediterranean Region, forming an approximately 2 km thick salt layer, which is still present today. This extreme event is named the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.97-5.33 Ma). The gateway and climate evolution is not well constrained for this time, which makes it difficult to distinguish which of the above mentioned drivers might have triggered the MSC. We, therefore, decided to tackle this problem via a multi-model approach: (1) We calculate the Mediterranean freshwater evolution via 30 atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations (using HadCM3L), to which we fitted to a function, using a regression model. This allows us to directly relate the orbital curves to evaporation, precipitation and run off. The resulting freshwater evolution can be directly correlated to other sedimentary and proxy records in the late Miocene. (2) By feeding the new freshwater evolution curve into a box/budget model we can predict the salinity and strontium evolution of the Mediterranean for a certain Atlantic-Mediterranean gateway. (3) By comparing these results to the known salinity thresholds of gypsum and halite saturation of sea water, but also to the late Miocene Mediterranean strontium

  9. Uranus evolution models with simple thermal boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettelmann, N.; Wang, K.; Fortney, J. J.; Hamel, S.; Yellamilli, S.; Bethkenhagen, M.; Redmer, R.

    2016-09-01

    The strikingly low luminosity of Uranus (Teff ≃ Teq) constitutes a long-standing challenge to our understanding of Ice Giant planets. Here we present the first Uranus structure and evolution models that are constructed to agree with both the observed low luminosity and the gravity field data. Our models make use of modern ab initio equations of state at high pressures for the icy components water, methane, and ammonia. Proceeding step by step, we confirm that adiabatic models yield cooling times that are too long, even when uncertainties in the ice:rock ratio (I:R) are taken into account. We then argue that the transition between the ice/rock-rich interior and the H/He-rich outer envelope should be stably stratified. Therefore, we introduce a simple thermal boundary and adjust it to reproduce the low luminosity. Due to this thermal boundary, the deep interior of the Uranus models are up to 2-3 warmer than adiabatic models, necessitating the presence of rocks in the deep interior with a possible I:R of 1 × solar. Finally, we allow for an equilibrium evolution (Teff ≃ Teq) that begun prior to the present day, which would therefore no longer require the current era to be a "special time" in Uranus' evolution. In this scenario, the thermal boundary leads to more rapid cooling of the outer envelope. When Teff ≃ Teq is reached, a shallow, subadiabatic zone in the atmosphere begins to develop. Its depth is adjusted to meet the luminosity constraint. This work provides a simple foundation for future Ice Giant structure and evolution models, that can be improved by properly treating the heat and particle fluxes in the diffusive zones.

  10. A Coupled Multiscale Model of Texture Evolution and Plastic Anisotropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawad, J.; Van Bael, A.; Yerra, S. K.; Samaey, G.; Van Houtte, P.; Roose, D.

    2010-06-01

    In this paper we present a multiscale model of a plastic deformation process in which the anisotropy of plastic properties is related to the evolution of the crystallographic texture. The model spans several length scales from the macroscopic deformation of the workpiece to the microscale interactions between individual grains in a polycrystalline material. The macroscopic behaviour of the material is described by means of a Finite Element (FE) model. Plastic anisotropy is taken into account in a constitutive law, based on the concept of a plastic potential in strain rate space. The coefficients of a sixth-order Facet equation are determined using the Taylor theory, provided that the current crystallographic texture at a given FE integration point is known. Texture evolution in the FE integration points is predicted by an ALAMEL micromechanical model. Mutual interactions between coarse and fine scale are inherent in the physics of the deformation process. These dependencies are taken into account by full bidirectional coupling in the model. Therefore, the plastic deformation influences the crystallographic texture and the evolution of the texture induces anisotropy of the macroscopic deformation. The presented approach enables an adaptive texture and yield surface update scheme with respect to the local plastic deformation in the FE integration points. Additionally, the computational cost related to the updates of the constitutive law is reduced by application of parallel computing techniques. Suitability of on-demand computing for this computational problem is discussed. The parallelisation strategy addresses both distributed memory and shared memory architectures. The cup drawing process has been simulated using the multiscale model outlined above. The discussion of results includes the analysis of the planar anisotropy in the cup and the influence of complex deformation path on texture development. Evolution of texture at selected material points is assessed as

  11. Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

    2017-03-07

    A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

  12. Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

    2017-03-07

    A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

  13. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

    2017-10-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  14. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  15. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Renssen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes during the Last Interglacial period. This period is of special interest because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in the light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of Last Interglacial temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the Last Interglacial period. By comparing the different simulations we aim at investigating the robustness of the simulated surface air temperature evolution. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–122 ka BP with temperatures 0.4 to 6.8 K above pre-industrial values. This temperature evolution is in line with the changes in June insolation and greenhouse-gas concentrations. For the evolution of July temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere, the picture emerging from the inter-comparison is less clear. However, it does show that including greenhouse-gas concentration changes is critical. The simulations that include this forcing show an early, 128 ka BP July temperature anomaly maximum of 0.5 to 2.6 K. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In these latitudes maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −2.5 to 2 K and 0 to 2 K are simulated for the period after 118 ka BP. The inter-comparison is inconclusive on the evolution of January temperatures in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Further investigation of regional anomalous patterns and inter-model differences indicate that in specific regions, feedbacks within the climate system are important for the

  16. Eustatic cycles, shoreline stacking, and stratigraphic traps: Atkinson field, Live Oak and Karnes Counties, Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulling, T.P.; Smith, W.M.; Breyer, J.A. (Texas Christian Univ., Fort Worth (USA))

    1987-02-01

    Atkinson field in south Texas produces gas from the updip pinch-out of a shoreline sand body deposited during a stillstand or minor regression within the early middle Eocene transgression of the Texas Gulf Coast. The sand body is elongate parallel to depositional strike and pinches out downdip into marine shales of the Reklaw Formation. The sand has a maximum thickness of 60 ft, extends 9 mi along strike, and reaches a width of 2 mi. Electric log patterns indicate interfingering between sand and shale on the updip edge of the sand body and a coarsening-upward sequence from shale to sand on the downdip edge of the sand body. Most logs from wells in the central part of the sand body have blocky patterns, indicating abrupt transitions with the overlying and underlying shales and no systematic variation in grain size. Many ancient shoreline sandstones have similar characteristics. The producing sand in Atkinson field occurs in the regressive phase of a fourth-order cycle of change in relative sea level, within the transgressive phase of the third-order cycle that comprises the early middle Eocene advance and retreat of the sea in the Gulf Coast region. Other shoreline sand bodies occur at the same stratigraphic zone along depositional strike. Models of shoreline stacking patterns within third-order cycles indicate that similar sand bodies and traps should be present in younger fourth-order cycles higher on paleoslope.

  17. Nonsteady flow routing in Landlab: implications for modeling watershed evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, J. M.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

    2016-12-01

    Many traditional landscape evolution models assume steady-state when modeling hydrology: water discharge is calculated a function of precipitation and drainage area, and is constant throughout the duration of a precipitation event. Predictive rainfall-runoff models occupy the other end of the spectrum, where discharge is calculated a function of physical parameters such as a surface roughness and channel slope. These physically-based models are often used for short-term modeling experiments, as explicit solutions of the shallow water equations can be computationally expensive. A physically-based, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model used for flood inundation has been built into the new Landlab modeling framework. This algorithm has been optimized, limiting instabilities when solved across longer time scales and steeper terrains. Previous work in landscape evolution modeling has shown that choice of hydrology method (nonsteady versus steady-state) can impact resulting landforms at geomorphic steady-state. This work evolves landforms from the same initial condition, driven by the same rate of tectonic uplift. The nonsteady overland flow and steady-state flow routing methods are run across these landscapes coupled with a stream power incision component. Previous results suggest that, given certain stream power parameters, modeled nonsteady peak discharges exceed predicted steady-state discharge values at the outlet, although total incision depths are greater in the steady-state hydrology case. These differences in peak discharge and erosion rates have implications for evolved basin relief, with greater overall relief in landscapes dominated by nonsteady hydrology. In addition to basin relief, we predict differences in channel concavities, due to increasing downstream erosion. The morphologic signatures of the two different hydrology regimes will be explored, and used to make interpretations about long-term landscape evolution.

  18. Hints on halo evolution in SFDM models with galaxy observations

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez-Morales, Alma X; Urena-Lopez, L Arturo; Valenzuela, Octavio

    2012-01-01

    A massive, self-interacting scalar field has been considered as a possible candidate for the dark matter in the universe. We present an observational constraint to the model arising from strong lensing observations in galaxies. The result points to a discrepancy in the properties of scalar field dark matter halos for dwarf and lens galaxies, mainly because halo parameters are directly related to physical quantities in the model. This is an important indication that it becomes necessary to have a better understanding of halo evolution in scalar field dark matter models, where the presence of baryons can play an important role.

  19. Interaction Strength and a Generalized Bak-Sneppen Evolution Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李炜; 蔡勖

    2002-01-01

    The Bak-Sneppen evolution model is generalized in terms of a new concept and quantity: interaction strength.Based on a quantitative definition, the interaction strength describes the strength of the interaction between thenearest-neighbour individuals in the model Self-organized criticality is observed for the generalized model withten different values of interaction strength. The gap equation governing the self-organization is derived. It is alsofound that the self-organized threshold depends on the value of the interaction strength.

  20. Ecohydro-geomorphic implications of orographic precipitation on landform evolution using a landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetemen, O.; Saco, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    Orography induced precipitation and its implications on vegetation dynamics and landscape morphology have long been documented in the literature. However a numerical framework that integrates a range of ecohydrologic and geomorphic processes to explore the coupled ecohydro-geomorphic landscape response of catchments where pronounced orographic precipitation prevails has been missing. In this study, our aim is to realistically represent orographic-precipitation-driven ecohydrologic dynamics in a landscape evolution model (LEM). The model is used to investigate how ecohydro-geomorphic differences caused by differential precipitation patterns on the leeward and windward sides of low-relief landscapes lead to differences in the organization of modelled topography, soil moisture and plant biomass. We use the CHILD LEM equipped with a vegetation dynamics component that explicitly tracks above- and below-ground biomass, and a precipitation forcing component that simulates rainfall as a function of elevation and orientation. The preliminary results of the model show how the competition between an increased shear stress through runoff production and an enhanced resistance force due to denser canopy cover shape the landscape. Moreover, orographic precipitation leads to not only the migration of the divide between leeward and windward slopes but also a change in the concavity of streams. These results clearly demonstrate the strong coupling between landform evolution and climate processes.

  1. Multiscale analysis of restoration priorities for marine shoreline planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L; Sobocinski, Kathryn L; Thom, Ronald M; May, Christopher W; Borde, Amy B; Southard, Susan L; Vavrinec, John; Sather, Nichole K

    2009-10-01

    Planners are being called on to prioritize marine shorelines for conservation status and restoration action. This study documents an approach to determining the management strategy most likely to succeed based on current conditions at local and landscape scales. The conceptual framework based in restoration ecology pairs appropriate restoration strategies with sites based on the likelihood of producing long-term resilience given the condition of ecosystem structures and processes at three scales: the shorezone unit (site), the drift cell reach (nearshore marine landscape), and the watershed (terrestrial landscape). The analysis is structured by a conceptual ecosystem model that identifies anthropogenic impacts on targeted ecosystem functions. A scoring system, weighted by geomorphic class, is applied to available spatial data for indicators of stress and function using geographic information systems. This planning tool augments other approaches to prioritizing restoration, including historical conditions and change analysis and ecosystem valuation.

  2. Phylogenetic ANOVA: The Expression Variance and Evolution Model for Quantitative Trait Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohlfs, Rori V; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2015-09-01

    A number of methods have been developed for modeling the evolution of a quantitative trait on a phylogeny. These methods have received renewed interest in the context of genome-wide studies of gene expression, in which the expression levels of many genes can be modeled as quantitative traits. We here develop a new method for joint analyses of quantitative traits within- and between species, the Expression Variance and Evolution (EVE) model. The model parameterizes the ratio of population to evolutionary expression variance, facilitating a wide variety of analyses, including a test for lineage-specific shifts in expression level, and a phylogenetic ANOVA that can detect genes with increased or decreased ratios of expression divergence to diversity, analogous to the famous Hudson Kreitman Aguadé (HKA) test used to detect selection at the DNA level. We use simulations to explore the properties of these tests under a variety of circumstances and show that the phylogenetic ANOVA is more accurate than the standard ANOVA (no accounting for phylogeny) sometimes used in transcriptomics. We then apply the EVE model to a mammalian phylogeny of 15 species typed for expression levels in liver tissue. We identify genes with high expression divergence between species as candidates for expression level adaptation, and genes with high expression diversity within species as candidates for expression level conservation and/or plasticity. Using the test for lineage-specific expression shifts, we identify several candidate genes for expression level adaptation on the catarrhine and human lineages, including genes putatively related to dietary changes in humans. We compare these results to those reported previously using a model which ignores expression variance within species, uncovering important differences in performance. We demonstrate the necessity for a phylogenetic model in comparative expression studies and show the utility of the EVE model to detect expression divergence

  3. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    OpenAIRE

    R. Fernandes; F. Braunschweig; Lourenço, F.; R. Neves

    2015-01-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has b...

  4. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    OpenAIRE

    R. Fernandes; F. Braunschweig; Lourenço, F.; R. Neves

    2016-01-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline cont...

  5. NOAA's Shoreline Survey Maps - Raster NOAA-NOS Shoreline Survey Manuscripts that define the shoreline and alongshore natural and man-made features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOS coastal survey maps (often called t-sheet or tp-sheet maps) are special use planimetric or topographic maps that precisely define the shoreline and alongshore...

  6. National assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Southeast Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzmann, Meredith; Himmelstoss, Emily; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches in the United States are popular tourist and recreational destinations and constitute some of the most valuable real estate in the country.The boundary between land and water along the coastline is often the location of concentrated residential and commercial development and is frequently exposed to a range of natural hazards, which include flooding, storm effects, and coastal erosion.  In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change hazards.  One component of this research effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/), documents changes in shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change. Shoreline position is an easily understood feature representing the historical location of a beach position through time. All data can be viewed on the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Portal at https://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/

  7. Modeling the Microstructural Evolution during Hot Deformation of Microalloyed Steels

    OpenAIRE

    Bäcke, Linda

    2009-01-01

      This thesis contains the development of a physically-based model describing the microstructural evolution during hot deformation of microalloyed steels. The work is mainly focused on the recrystallization kinetics. During hot rolling, the repeated deformation and recrystallization provides progressively refined recrystallized grains. Also, recrystallization enables the material to be deformed more easily and knowledge of the recrystallization kinetics is important in order to predict the re...

  8. Hydrogeochemical modeling of groundwater chemical environmental evolution in Hebei Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭永海; 沈照理; 钟佐燊

    1997-01-01

    Using the hydrogeochemical modeling method, the groundwater chemical environmental problems of the Hebei Plain which involve increasing of hardness and total dissolved solids in piedmont area and mixing of saline water with fresh water in middle-eastern area are studied. The water-rock interactions and mass transfer along a ground-water flow path and in mixing processes are calculated. Thus the evolution mechanisms of the groundwater chemical environment are brought to light.

  9. Long range anti-ferromagnetic spin model for prebiotic evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nokura, Kazuo [Shonan Institute of Technology, Fujisawa 251-8511 (Japan)

    2003-11-28

    I propose and discuss a fitness function for one-dimensional binary monomer sequences of macromolecules for prebiotic evolution. The fitness function is defined by the free energy of polymers in the high temperature random coil phase. With repulsive interactions among the same kind of monomers, the free energy in the high temperature limit becomes the energy function of the one-dimensional long range anti-ferromagnetic spin model, which is shown to have a dynamical phase transition and glassy states.

  10. Modeling evolution of insect resistance to genetically modified crops

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Genetically modified crops producing insecticidal proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) for insect control have been planted on more than 200 million ha worldwide since 1996 [1]. Evolution of resistance by insect pests threatens the continued success of Bt crops [2, 3]. To delay pest resistance, refuges of non-Bt crops are planted near Bt crops to allow survival of susceptible pests [4, 5]. We used computer simulations of a population genetic model to determine if predictions from the the...

  11. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny L Davis

    Full Text Available Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  12. A quantitative model for integrating landscape evolution and soil formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanwalleghem, T.; Stockmann, U.; Minasny, B.; McBratney, Alex B.

    2013-06-01

    evolution is closely related to soil formation. Quantitative modeling of the dynamics of soils and landscapes should therefore be integrated. This paper presents a model, named Model for Integrated Landscape Evolution and Soil Development (MILESD), which describes the interaction between pedogenetic and geomorphic processes. This mechanistic model includes the most significant soil formation processes, ranging from weathering to clay translocation, and combines these with the lateral redistribution of soil particles through erosion and deposition. The model is spatially explicit and simulates the vertical variation in soil horizon depth as well as basic soil properties such as texture and organic matter content. In addition, sediment export and its properties are recorded. This model is applied to a 6.25 km2 area in the Werrikimbe National Park, Australia, simulating soil development over a period of 60,000 years. Comparison with field observations shows how the model accurately predicts trends in total soil thickness along a catena. Soil texture and bulk density are predicted reasonably well, with errors of the order of 10%, however, field observations show a much higher organic carbon content than predicted. At the landscape scale, different scenarios with varying erosion intensity result only in small changes of landscape-averaged soil thickness, while the response of the total organic carbon stored in the system is higher. Rates of sediment export show a highly nonlinear response to soil development stage and the presence of a threshold, corresponding to the depletion of the soil reservoir, beyond which sediment export drops significantly.

  13. Spin Glass Models of Syntax and Language Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Siva, Karthik; Marcolli, Matilde

    2015-01-01

    Using the SSWL database of syntactic parameters of world languages, and the MIT Media Lab data on language interactions, we construct a spin glass model of language evolution. We treat binary syntactic parameters as spin states, with languages as vertices of a graph, and assigned interaction energies along the edges. We study a rough model of syntax evolution, under the assumption that a strong interaction energy tends to cause parameters to align, as in the case of ferromagnetic materials. We also study how the spin glass model needs to be modified to account for entailment relations between syntactic parameters. This modification leads naturally to a generalization of Potts models with external magnetic field, which consists of a coupling at the vertices of an Ising model and a Potts model with q=3, that have the same edge interactions. We describe the results of simulations of the dynamics of these models, in different temperature and energy regimes. We discuss the linguistic interpretation of the paramete...

  14. Models for the directed evolution of bacterial allelopathy: bacteriophage lysins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Bull

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbes produce a variety of compounds that are used to kill or suppress other species. Traditional antibiotics have their origins in these natural products, as do many types of compounds being pursued today in the quest for new antibacterial drugs. When a potential toxin can be encoded by and exported from a species that is not harmed, the opportunity exists to use directed evolution to improve the toxin’s ability to kill other species—allelopathy. In contrast to the typical application of directed evolution, this case requires the co-culture of at least two species or strains, a host that is unharmed by the toxin plus the intended target of the toxin. We develop mathematical and computational models of this directed evolution process. Two contexts are considered, one with the toxin encoded on a plasmid and the other with the toxin encoded in a phage. The plasmid system appears to be more promising than the phage system. Crucial to both designs is the ability to co-culture two species/strains (host and target such that the host is greatly outgrown by the target species except when the target species is killed. The results suggest that, if these initial conditions can be satisfied, directed evolution is feasible for the plasmid-based system. Screening with a plasmid-based system may also enable rapid improvement of a toxin.

  15. Models for the directed evolution of bacterial allelopathy: bacteriophage lysins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, James J; Crandall, Cameron; Rodriguez, Anna; Krone, Stephen M

    2015-01-01

    Microbes produce a variety of compounds that are used to kill or suppress other species. Traditional antibiotics have their origins in these natural products, as do many types of compounds being pursued today in the quest for new antibacterial drugs. When a potential toxin can be encoded by and exported from a species that is not harmed, the opportunity exists to use directed evolution to improve the toxin's ability to kill other species-allelopathy. In contrast to the typical application of directed evolution, this case requires the co-culture of at least two species or strains, a host that is unharmed by the toxin plus the intended target of the toxin. We develop mathematical and computational models of this directed evolution process. Two contexts are considered, one with the toxin encoded on a plasmid and the other with the toxin encoded in a phage. The plasmid system appears to be more promising than the phage system. Crucial to both designs is the ability to co-culture two species/strains (host and target) such that the host is greatly outgrown by the target species except when the target species is killed. The results suggest that, if these initial conditions can be satisfied, directed evolution is feasible for the plasmid-based system. Screening with a plasmid-based system may also enable rapid improvement of a toxin.

  16. FL_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Florida Atlantic Coast Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  17. SC_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for South Carolina Atlantic Coast Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  18. NC_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for North Carolina Atlantic Coast Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  19. GA_INTERSECTS - Transect-Shoreline Intersection Points for Georgia Atlantic Coast Generated to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Rates of long-term and short-term shoreline change were generated in a GIS with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0, an ArcView extension...

  20. A model for evolution of overlapping community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Rituraj; Biswal, Bibhu

    2017-05-01

    A model is proposed for the evolution of network topology in social networks with overlapping community structure. Starting from an initial community structure that is defined in terms of group affiliations, the model postulates that the subsequent growth and loss of connections is similar to the Hebbian learning and unlearning in the brain and is governed by two dominant factors: the strength and frequency of interaction between the members, and the degree of overlap between different communities. The temporal evolution from an initial community structure to the current network topology can be described based on these two parameters. It is possible to quantify the growth occurred so far and predict the final stationary state to which the network is likely to evolve. Applications in epidemiology or the spread of email virus in a computer network as well as finding specific target nodes to control it are envisaged. While facing the challenge of collecting and analyzing large-scale time-resolved data on social groups and communities one faces the most basic questions: how do communities evolve in time? This work aims to address this issue by developing a mathematical model for the evolution of community networks and studying it through computer simulation.

  1. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2017-01-18

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Experimental and theoretical models of human cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempe, Marius; Mesoudi, Alex

    2014-05-01

    The modern field of cultural evolution is now over 30 years old, and an extensive body of theory and data has been amassed. This article reviews models of cultural evolution, both experimental and theoretical, and surveys what they can tell us about cultural evolutionary processes. The models are grouped according to which of four broad questions they address: (1) How are cultural traits changed during transmission? (2) How and why do cultural traits accumulate over time? (3) What social learning biases do people use? and (4) What are the population-level consequences of different social learning biases? We conclude by highlighting gaps in the literature and promising future research directions, including the further integration of theoretical models and experimental data, the identification of the factors underlying cumulative cultural evolution, and the explanation of individual and cultural variation in social learning biases. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. The Evolution of the AGN population in the MORGANA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontanot, F.; Monaco, P.; Cristiani, S.; Tozzi, P.

    2008-10-01

    We present the results of the MOdel for the Rise of Galaxies aNd Agns (MORGANA), that includes in a self-consistent way the accretion of matter onto Super-Massive Black Holes. We compare MORGANA predictions to the observed evolution of the AGN space density (inferred from optical and X-ray surveys) and we find that that it is possible to reproduce the apparent downsizing of the AGN population in the framework of concordance cosmology. We will show that this result is likely due to the improved treatment of gas cooling and feedback in MORGANA, and in particular to the modeling of the stellar kinetic feedback, arising in star-forming bulges as a consequence of the level of turbolence. On the other hand, the predicted low-mass end of BH-bulge relation is steeper than observed: we discuss this disagreement on the light of the predicted excess of small bulges, which is common to several models of galaxy formation and evolution. Finally we will show that a stronger constrain on the relative importance of the physical processes involved in the build up of the AGN population move from the observed redshift evolution of the BH-Bulge relation.

  4. Dynamical Models Explaining Social Balance and Evolution of Cooperation

    CERN Document Server

    Traag, V A; De Leenheer, P

    2013-01-01

    In social networks with positive and negative links the dominant theory of explaining its structure is that of social balance. The theory states that a network is balanced if its triads are balanced. Such a balanced network can be split into (at most) two opposing factions with positive links within a faction and negative links between them. Although inherently dynamical, the theory has long remained static, with a focus on finding such partitions. Recently however, a dynamical model was introduced which was shown to converge to a socially balanced state for certain symmetric initial conditions. Here we show this does not hold for general (non-symmetric) initial conditions. We propose an alternative model and show that it does converge to a socially balanced state generically. Moreover, in a basic model of evolution of cooperation of indirect reciprocity, the alternative model has an evolutionary advantage compared to the earlier model. The principal difference between the two models can be understood in term...

  5. Subgrid Modeling Geomorphological and Ecological Processes in Salt Marsh Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, F.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Wu, G.; Abdolali, A.; Deb, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical modeling a long-term evolution of salt marshes is challenging because it requires an extensive use of computational resources. Due to the presence of narrow tidal creeks, variations of salt marsh topography can be significant over spatial length scales on the order of a meter. With growing availability of high-resolution bathymetry measurements, like LiDAR-derived DEM data, it is increasingly desirable to run a high-resolution model in a large domain and for a long period of time to get trends of sedimentation patterns, morphological change and marsh evolution. However, high spatial-resolution poses a big challenge in both computational time and memory storage, when simulating a salt marsh with dimensions of up to O(100 km^2) with a small time step. In this study, we have developed a so-called Pre-storage, Sub-grid Model (PSM, Wu et al., 2015) for simulating flooding and draining processes in salt marshes. The simulation of Brokenbridge salt marsh, Delaware, shows that, with the combination of the sub-grid model and the pre-storage method, over 2 orders of magnitude computational speed-up can be achieved with minimal loss of model accuracy. We recently extended PSM to include a sediment transport component and models for biomass growth and sedimentation in the sub-grid model framework. The sediment transport model is formulated based on a newly derived sub-grid sediment concentration equation following Defina's (2000) area-averaging procedure. Suspended sediment transport is modeled by the advection-diffusion equation in the coarse grid level, but the local erosion and sedimentation rates are integrated over the sub-grid level. The morphological model is based on the existing morphological model in NearCoM (Shi et al., 2013), extended to include organic production from the biomass model. The vegetation biomass is predicted by a simple logistic equation model proposed by Marani et al. (2010). The biomass component is loosely coupled with hydrodynamic and

  6. Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms were analysed due to gaps in the video data. Based on the 36 individual storms and 13 storm clusters analysed, our results show that clustering impact is cumulatively weak and shoreline retreat is governed by the first storms in clusters, while the impact of subsequent events is less pronounced. The average post-storm beach recovery period at this site is 9 days, consistent with observations at other beaches. Apart from the dominant effect of present storm conditions, shoreline dynamics are also significantly affected by previous storm influence, while recovery is strongly modulated by tidal range and the bar location. Our results reveal that not only is the storm energy important but also the frequency of recurrence (storms result in greater retreat when time intervals between them are longer), which suggests an interaction between short storm events and longer-term evolution.

  7. SIGNUM: A Matlab, TIN-based landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refice, A.; Giachetta, E.; Capolongo, D.

    2012-08-01

    Several numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed to date, and many are available as open source codes. Most are written in efficient programming languages such as Fortran or C, but often require additional code efforts to plug in to more user-friendly data analysis and/or visualization tools to ease interpretation and scientific insight. In this paper, we present an effort to port a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution directly into a high-level language and data analysis environment such as Matlab. SIGNUM (acronym for Simple Integrated Geomorphological Numerical Model) is an independent and self-contained Matlab, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales. SIGNUM is presently capable of simulating hillslope processes such as linear and nonlinear diffusion, fluvial incision into bedrock, spatially varying surface uplift which can be used to simulate changes in base level, thrust and faulting, as well as effects of climate changes. Although based on accepted and well-known processes and algorithms in its present version, it is built with a modular structure, which allows to easily modify and upgrade the simulated physical processes to suite virtually any user needs. The code is conceived as an open-source project, and is thus an ideal tool for both research and didactic purposes, thanks to the high-level nature of the Matlab environment and its popularity among the scientific community. In this paper the simulation code is presented together with some simple examples of surface evolution, and guidelines for development of new modules and algorithms are proposed.

  8. Modeling protein network evolution under genome duplication and domain shuffling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isambert Hervé

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Successive whole genome duplications have recently been firmly established in all major eukaryote kingdoms. Such exponential evolutionary processes must have largely contributed to shape the topology of protein-protein interaction (PPI networks by outweighing, in particular, all time-linear network growths modeled so far. Results We propose and solve a mathematical model of PPI network evolution under successive genome duplications. This demonstrates, from first principles, that evolutionary conservation and scale-free topology are intrinsically linked properties of PPI networks and emerge from i prevailing exponential network dynamics under duplication and ii asymmetric divergence of gene duplicates. While required, we argue that this asymmetric divergence arises, in fact, spontaneously at the level of protein-binding sites. This supports a refined model of PPI network evolution in terms of protein domains under exponential and asymmetric duplication/divergence dynamics, with multidomain proteins underlying the combinatorial formation of protein complexes. Genome duplication then provides a powerful source of PPI network innovation by promoting local rearrangements of multidomain proteins on a genome wide scale. Yet, we show that the overall conservation and topology of PPI networks are robust to extensive domain shuffling of multidomain proteins as well as to finer details of protein interaction and evolution. Finally, large scale features of direct and indirect PPI networks of S. cerevisiae are well reproduced numerically with only two adjusted parameters of clear biological significance (i.e. network effective growth rate and average number of protein-binding domains per protein. Conclusion This study demonstrates the statistical consequences of genome duplication and domain shuffling on the conservation and topology of PPI networks over a broad evolutionary scale across eukaryote kingdoms. In particular, scale

  9. Understanding the evolution of learning by explicitly modeling learning mechanisms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michal ARBILLY

    2015-01-01

    Models of the evolution of learning often assume that learning leads to the best solution to any task,and disregard the details of the learning and decision-making process along with its potential pitfalls.These models therefore do not explain instances in the animal behavior literature in which learning leads to maladaptive behaviors.In recent years a growing number of theoretical studies use explicit models of learning mechanisms,offering a fresh perspective on the issue by revealing the dynamics of information acquisition and biases arising from it.These models have pointed out possible learning rules and their adaptive value,and shown that the value of learning may crucially depend on such factors as the layout of the physical environment to be leamed,the structure of the payoffs offered by different alternatives,the risk of failure,characteristics of the learner and social interactions.This review considers the merits of explicit modeling in studying the evolution of learning,describes the kinds of results that can only be obtained from this modeling approach,and outlines directions for future research [Current Zoology 61 (2):341-349,2015].

  10. Recent Shifts in Shoreline Orientation along a Cuspate Coast Potentially Linked to Climate Change, North Carolina Outer Banks, USA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, L. J.; Brenner, O.; McNamara, D.; Murray, A. B.

    2009-12-01

    Recent modeling (e.g., Ashton and Murray, 2006a) and observations (Ashton and Murray 2006b) suggest that sandy coastlines self-organize into large-scale plan-view shapes that depend sensitively on the regional wave climate. Subsequent modeling (Slott et al., 2007) shows that even moderate changes in wave climate, likely to arise as storm behaviors shift, may cause coastlines to change shape rapidly. Such large-scale shape changes involve greatly accentuated rates of local erosion and highly variable erosion/accretion rates. A recent analysis of wave records from the Southeastern U.S. (Komar and Allen, 2007) indicates that wave climates have already been changing over the past three decades; the heights of waves attributable to tropical storms have been increasing, changing the angular distribution of wave influences. Changes in coastline shape resulting from changes in the regional wave climate identified by Komar and Allen (2007) will likely be difficult to detect along most coastlines due to short-term variability in shoreline position and limits to the resolution at which shoreline changes can be measured over a 30-year time period. However, adjustments in coastline shape are likely to occur most quickly, and therefore to be most pronounced, on cuspate shorelines along and adjacent to cape tips because rapid changes in shoreline orientation make these locations particularly sensitive to deep-water wave approach angles. To test for the presence of detectable climate-change related shifts in coastline shape along a cuspate shoreline we conduct an historical (1852 - 1974) and recent (1974 - 2004) shoreline change analysis for Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Results indicate a recent shift in shoreline-change patterns, with trends toward more-erosional/less-accretional shoreline response and more-accretional/less-erosional response in roughly consistent locations (relative to cape tips) on the flanks of both capes. These changes in shoreline response

  11. An exploratory numerical model of rocky shore profile evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Hironori; Dickson, Mark E.; Kench, Paul S.

    2016-09-01

    Rocky shores occur along much of the world's coastline and include a wide range of coastal morphologies, such as intertidal shore platforms. Considerable research effort has been placed on trying to understand developmental processes on rocky shores, but progress has been forestalled because these landscapes develop slowly and preserve little evidence of evolution through time. This paper presents a new exploratory numerical model developed to study long-term shore profile evolution on rock coasts. The model purposely considers only a limited number of processes, each represented in a highly abstracted way. Despite these simplifications, the model exhibits a large range of emergent shore profile shapes. This behavior is enabled both by broader spatial representation of the driving erosion forces and the flexibility provided by a grid discretization scheme. Initial model testing shows the development of varied rocky profile geometries, ranging from steep plunging cliffs, cliffs with narrow benches, and cliffs with a variety of shore platform shapes. Most of the model geometries are similar to those observed in the field, and model behavior is robust and internally consistent across a relatively large parameter space. This paper provides a detailed description of the new model and its subsequent testing. Emphasis is placed on comparison of model results with published field observations in which morphometric relationships are described between shore platform gradient and tidal range, and platform elevation and platform width. The model adequately simulates these morphometric relationships, while retaining its ability to simulate a wide range of profile shapes. The simplicity of process representations, and the limited number of processes implemented, means that model outputs can be interpreted reasonably easily. Hence, an opportunity is now provided, following the testing described in this paper, to use the model to systematically investigate the broader controlling

  12. Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Smith, Theresa L.; Knisel, Julia M.; Sampson, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional

  13. Core formation, evolution, and convection - A geophysical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruff, L.; Anderson, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A model for the formation and evolution of the earth's core, which provides an adequate energy source for maintaining the geodynamo, is proposed. A modified inhomogeneous accretion model is proposed which leads to initial iron and refractory enrichment at the center of the planet. The probable heat source for melting of the core is the decay of Al-26. The refractory material is emplaced irregularly in the lowermost mantle with uranium and thorium serving as a long-lived heat source. Fluid motions in the core are driven by the differential heating from above and the resulting cyclonic motions may be the source of the geodynamo.

  14. Core formation, evolution, and convection: A geophysical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruff, L.; Anderson, D. L.

    1978-01-01

    A model is proposed for the formation and evolution of the Earth's core which provides an adequate energy source for maintaining the geodynamo. A modified inhomogeneous accretion model is proposed which leads to initial iron and refractory enrichment at the center of the planet. The probable heat source for melting of the core is the decay of Al. The refractory material is emplaced irregularly in the lowermost mantle with uranium and thorium serving as a long lived heat source. Fluid motions in the core are driven by the differential heating from above and the resulting cyclonic motions may be the source of the geodynamo.

  15. Geometrothermodynamic model for the evolution of the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Christine; Quevedo, Hernando

    2017-07-01

    Using the formalism of geometrothermodynamics to derive a fundamental thermodynamic equation, we construct a cosmological model in the framework of relativistic cosmology. In a first step, we describe a system without thermodynamic interaction, and show it to be equivalent to the standard ΛCDM paradigm. The second step includes thermodynamic interaction and produces a model consistent with the main features of inflation. With the proposed fundamental equation we are thus able to describe all the known epochs in the evolution of our Universe, starting from the inflationary phase.

  16. Geometrothermodynamic model for the evolution of the Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Gruber, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Using the formalism of geometrothermodynamics to derive a fundamental thermodynamic equation, we construct a cosmological model in the framework of relativistic cosmology. In a first step, we describe a system without thermodynamic interaction, and show it to be equivalent to the standard $\\Lambda$CDM paradigm. The second step includes thermodynamic interaction and produces a model consistent with the main features of inflation. With the proposed fundamental equation we are thus able to describe all the known epochs in the evolution of our Universe, starting from the inflationary phase.

  17. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.;

    In glacial landscape evolution models, subglacial erosion rates are often related to basal sliding or ice discharge by a power-law. This relation can be justified when considering bed abrasion, where rock debris transported in the basal ice drives erosion. However, the relation is not well...... to sudden jumps in erosion rate and fjord formation along margins that experienced periodic ice sheet configurations in the Quaternary. Egholm, D. L. et al. Modeling the flow of glaciers in steep terrains: The integrated second-order shallow ice approximation (iSOSIA). Journal of Geophysical Research, 116...

  18. Modelling of the layer evolution during nitriding processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueroa, U.; Oseguera, J.; Schabes, P. [CEM, Atizapan (Mexico)

    1995-12-31

    The evolution of concomitant layers of nitrides is presented. The layer formation is experimentally achieved through two processes: Nitriding with a weakly ionized plasma and nitrogen post-discharge nitriding. The nitriding processes were performed on samples of pure iron and carbon steel. Nitriding temperatures were close but different from the eutectoid transformation point temperature. The experimental layer growth pattern is compared with a model of mass transfer, in which interface mass balance is considered. In the model the authors have considered the formation of one and two compact nitride layers. For short time of treatment, it is shown that a parabolic profile does not satisfactorily describe the layer growth.

  19. A systemic approach for modeling biological evolution using Parallel DEVS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heredia, Daniel; Sanz, Victorino; Urquia, Alfonso; Sandín, Máximo

    2015-08-01

    A new model for studying the evolution of living organisms is proposed in this manuscript. The proposed model is based on a non-neodarwinian systemic approach. The model is focused on considering several controversies and open discussions about modern evolutionary biology. Additionally, a simplification of the proposed model, named EvoDEVS, has been mathematically described using the Parallel DEVS formalism and implemented as a computer program using the DEVSLib Modelica library. EvoDEVS serves as an experimental platform to study different conditions and scenarios by means of computer simulations. Two preliminary case studies are presented to illustrate the behavior of the model and validate its results. EvoDEVS is freely available at http://www.euclides.dia.uned.es. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A Chemical Evolution Model for the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Zhen; Jing, Y P

    2015-01-01

    Fornax is the brightest Milky Way (MW) dwarf spheroidal galaxy and its star formation history (SFH) has been derived from observations. We estimate the time evolution of its gas mass and net inflow and outflow rates from the SFH using a simple star formation law that relates the star formation rate to the gas mass. We present a chemical evolution model on a 2D mass grid with supernovae (SNe) as sources of metal enrichment. We find that a key parameter controlling the enrichment is the mass M_x of the gas to mix with the ejecta from each SN. The choice of M_x depends on the evolution of SN remnants and on the global gas dynamics. It differs between the two types of SNe involved and between the periods before and after Fornax became an MW satellite at time t = t_sat . Our results indicate that due to the global gas outflow at t > t_sat , part of the ejecta from each SN may directly escape from Fornax. Sample results from our model are presented and compared with data.

  1. Modelling the sulphur chemistry evolution in Orion KL

    CERN Document Server

    Esplugues, G B; Goicoechea, J R; Cernicharo, J

    2014-01-01

    We study the sulphur chemistry evolution in the Orion KL along the gas and grain phases of the cloud. We investigate the processes that dominate the sulphur chemistry and to determine how physical and chemical parameters, such as the final star mass and the initial elemental abundances, influence the evolution of the hot core and of the surrounding outflows and shocked gas (the plateau). We independently modelled the chemistry evolution of both components using the time-dependent gas-grain model UCL_CHEM and considering two different phase calculations. Phase I starts with the collapsing cloud and the depletion of atoms and molecules onto grain surfaces. Phase II starts when a central protostar is formed and the evaporation from grains takes place. We show how the gas density, the gas depletion efficiency, the initial sulphur abundance, the shocked gas temperature and the different chemical paths on the grains leading to different reservoirs of sulphur on the mantles affect sulphur-bearing molecules at differ...

  2. A Chemical Evolution Model for the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Zhen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fornax is the brightest Milky Way (MW dwarf spheroidal galaxy and its star formation history (SFH has been derived from observations. We estimate the time evolution of its gas mass and net inflow and outflow rates from the SFH usinga simple star formation law that relates the star formation rate to the gas mass. We present a chemical evolution model on a 2D mass grid with supernovae (SNe as sources of metal enrichment. We find that a key parameter controlling the enrichment is the mass Mx of the gas to mix with the ejecta from each SN. The choice of Mx depends on the evolution of SN remnants and on the global gas dynamics. It differs between the two types of SNe involved and between the periods before and after Fornax became an MW satellite at time t = tsat. Our results indicate that due to the global gas outflow at t > tsat, part of the ejecta from each SN may directly escape from Fornax. Sample results from our model are presented and compared with data.

  3. National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David; Richmond, Bruce M.; Ruggiero, Peter; List, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. In the case of this study, the shoreline being measured is the boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the California Coast represents the first of two reports on long-term sandy shoreline change for the western U.S., the second of which will include the coast of the Pacific NW, including Oregon and Washington. A report for the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was completed in 2004 and is available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1043/. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding long-term and short-term trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all

  4. Evolution of Interacting Viscous Dark Energy Model in Einstein Cosmology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ju-Hua; ZHOU Sheng; WANG Yong-Jiu

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the evolution of the viscous dark energy (DE) interacting with the dark matter (DM) in the Einstein cosmology model. By using the linearizing theory of the dynamical system, we find that, in our model,there exists a stable late time scaling solution which corresponds to the accelerating universe. We also find the unstable solution under some appropriate parameters. In order to alleviate the coincidence problem, some authors considered the effect of quantum correction due to the conform anomaly and the interacting dark energy with the dark matter. However, if we take into account the bulk viscosity of the cosmic fluid, the coincidence problem will be softened just like the interacting dark energy cosmology model. That is to say, both the non-perfect fluid model and the interacting the dark energy cosmic model can alleviate or soften the singularity of the universe.%@@ We investigate the evolution of the viscous dark energy (DE) interacting with the dark matter (DM) in the Einstein cosmology model.By using the linearizing theory of the dynamical system, we find that, in our model, there exists a stable late time scaling solution which corresponds to the accelerating universe.We also find the unstable solution under some appropriate parameters.In order to alleviate the coincidence problem, some authors considered the effect of quantum correction due to the conform anomaly and the interacting dark energy with the dark matter.However, if we take into account the bulk viscosity of the cosmic fluid, the coincidence problem will be softened just like the interacting dark energy cosmology model.That is to say, both the non-perfect fluid model and the interacting the dark energy cosmic model can alleviate or soften the singularity of the universe.

  5. Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes for shoreline restoration: case study of Barataria shoreline, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindinger, Jack G.; Flocks, James G.; Kulp, Mark; Penland, Shea; Britsch, Louis D.

    2002-01-01

    The Louisiana barrier shoreline of Barataria Basin, which lies within the western Mississippi River delta, has undergone significant retreat during the past 100 years. The most practical restoration method to rebuild these shorelines is sand nourishment. Seismic and sonar interpretations verified with geologic samples (vibracores and borings) indicate that there are nine sand targets within the Barataria study area that meet or exceed the minimum criteria for potential resource sites. However, the near surface lithology in the basin is typically silts and clays. Locating suitable sand resources for shoreline restoration is challenging. The sand units are associated with geologic depositional systems such as ebb-tidal deltas, distributary mouth bars, and channel fill (undifferentiated fluvial or tidal inlet channels). The nine potential sand targets consist primarily of fine sand and can be delineated into three surficial and six buried features. The surficial features contain approximately 10% of the total sand resources identified. At least 90% of the sand resources need overburden sediment removed prior to use; almost 570 million yd3 (438.5 mil m3) of overburden will need to be removed if the entire resource is mined. In this study, we identified 396 to 532 mil yd3 (305.8 to 410.8 mil m3) of potential sand deposits for shoreline restoration. Previous studies using less dense survey methods greatly over-estimated sand resources available in this area. Many fluvial channels reported previously as sand-filled are mud-filled. Contrary to these previous studies, few fluvial subsystems in this region have abundant sand resources.

  6. Modeling the evolution of the cerebellum: from macroevolution to function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaers, Jeroen B

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this contribution is to explore how macroevolutionary studies of the cerebellum can contribute to theories on cerebellar function and connectivity. New approaches in modeling the evolution of biological traits have provided new insights in the evolutionary pathways that underlie cerebellar evolution. These approaches reveal patterns of coordinated size changes among brain structures across evolutionary time, demonstrate how particular lineages/species stand out, and what the rate and timing of neuroanatomical changes were in evolutionary history. Using these approaches, recent studies demonstrated that changes in the relative size of the posterior cerebellar cortex and associated cortical areas indicate taxonomic differences in great apes and humans. Considering comparative differences in behavioral capacity, macroevolutionary results are discussed in the context of theories on cerebellar function and learning. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing the state of substitution models describing noncoding RNA evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, James E; Whelan, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Phylogenetic inference is widely used to investigate the relationships between homologous sequences. RNA molecules have played a key role in these studies because they are present throughout life and tend to evolve slowly. Phylogenetic inference has been shown to be dependent on the substitution model used. A wide range of models have been developed to describe RNA evolution, either with 16 states describing all possible canonical base pairs or with 7 states where the 10 mismatched nucleotides are reduced to a single state. Formal model selection has become a standard practice for choosing an inferential model and works well for comparing models of a specific type, such as comparisons within nucleotide models or within amino acid models. Model selection cannot function across different sized state spaces because the likelihoods are conditioned on different data. Here, we introduce statistical state-space projection methods that allow the direct comparison of likelihoods between nucleotide models and 7-state and 16-state RNA models. To demonstrate the general applicability of our new methods, we extract 287 RNA families from genomic alignments and perform model selection. We find that in 281/287 families, RNA models are selected in preference to nucleotide models, with simple 7-state RNA models selected for more conserved families with shorter stems and more complex 16-state RNA models selected for more divergent families with longer stems. Other factors, such as the function of the RNA molecule or the GC-content, have limited impact on model selection. Our models and model selection methods are freely available in the open-source PHASE 3.0 software.

  8. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bakker

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG. This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter

  9. On an evolution equation in a cell motility model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuhara, Matthew S.; Berlyand, Leonid; Rybalko, Volodymyr; Zhang, Lei

    2016-04-01

    This paper deals with the evolution equation of a curve obtained as the sharp interface limit of a non-linear system of two reaction-diffusion PDEs. This system was introduced as a phase-field model of (crawling) motion of eukaryotic cells on a substrate. The key issue is the evolution of the cell membrane (interface curve) which involves shape change and net motion. This issue can be addressed both qualitatively and quantitatively by studying the evolution equation of the sharp interface limit for this system. However, this equation is non-linear and non-local and existence of solutions presents a significant analytical challenge. We establish existence of solutions for a wide class of initial data in the so-called subcritical regime. Existence is proved in a two step procedure. First, for smooth (H2) initial data we use a regularization technique. Second, we consider non-smooth initial data that are more relevant from the application point of view. Here, uniform estimates on the time when solutions exist rely on a maximum principle type argument. We also explore the long time behavior of the model using both analytical and numerical tools. We prove the nonexistence of traveling wave solutions with nonzero velocity. Numerical experiments show that presence of non-linearity and asymmetry of the initial curve results in a net motion which distinguishes it from classical volume preserving curvature motion. This is done by developing an algorithm for efficient numerical resolution of the non-local term in the evolution equation.

  10. Sandbar Migration and Shoreline Change on the Chirihama Coast, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masatoshi Yuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Sandy beaches play a key role in regional tourism. It is important to understand the principal morphological processes behind preserving attractive beaches. In this study, morphological variation on the Chirihama Coast, Japan, an important local tourism resource, was investigated using two sets of field surveys. The objective was to analyze and document the multi-scale behaviors of the beach. First, long-term shoreline changes were examined based on shoreline surveys over the last two decades. Then, the middle-term behavior of multiple bar systems was analyzed based on the cross-shore profile surveys from 1998 to 2010. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis was conducted to capture the principal modes of the systematic bar migration. The shoreline analysis indicated a long-term eroding trend and showed that the seasonal variation has recently tended to increase. The profile analysis demonstrated that net offshore migrations of bars have been repeated with a return period of approximately four years. This general behavior of the bar system is similar to the net offshore migration phenomena observed at other sites in the world. EOF analysis revealed a relationship between bar configuration and middle-term variations in shoreline location; when a new bar is generated near the shoreline and a triple bar configuration is established, the shoreline tends to temporarily retreat, whereas the shoreline experiences an advance when the outer bar has most evolved.

  11. Shoreline change analysis of Vedaranyam coast, Tamil Nadu, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natesan, Usha; Thulasiraman, N; Deepthi, K; Kathiravan, K

    2013-06-01

    The coastal zone is one of the nation's greatest environmental and economic assets. The present research aims at studying the shoreline changes along Vedaranyam coast using conventional and modern techniques including field sampling, remote sensing, and geographical information system (GIS). The study area was divided into three zones. Dynamic Land/Sea polygon analysis was performed to obtain the shore line changes at different time periods between 1930 and 2005. From the multidate shoreline maps, the rate of shoreline change was computed using linear regression rate and end point rate. Further, the shoreline was classified into eroding, accreting, and stable regions through GIS analysis. The eroding, accreting, and stable coastal stretch along Vedaranyam is observed as 18 %, 80.5 %, and 1.5 %, respectively. Net shoreline movement is seaward, i.e., the coast is progressive with an average rate of 5 m/year. A maximum shoreline displacement of 1.3 km towards the sea is observed near Point Calimere. During the Asian Tsunami 2004, the eastern part of the study area showed high erosion. Sediment transport paths derived from the grain size analysis of beach sediments collected during different seasons help to identify the major sediment source and sinks. Point Calimere acts as the major sink for sediments whereas Agastiyampalli and Kodiakkarai are found to be the major sources for the sediment supply along the Vedaranyam coast. Shoreline change study from field and satellite data using GIS analysis confirms that Vedaranyam coast is accreting in nature.

  12. Biomass torrefaction: modeling of volatile and solid product evolution kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Richard B; Ghoniem, Ahmed F

    2012-11-01

    The aim of this work is the development of a kinetics model for the evolution of the volatile and solid product composition during torrefaction conditions between 200 and 300°C. Coupled to an existing two step solid mass loss kinetics mechanism, this model describes the volatile release kinetics in terms of a set of identifiable chemical components, permitting the solid product composition to be estimated by mass conservation. Results show that most of the volatiles released during the first stage include highly oxygenated species such as water, acetic acid, and carbon dioxide, while volatiles released during the second step are composed primarily of lactic acid, methanol, and acetic acid. This kinetics model will be used in the development of a model to describe reaction energy balance and heat release dynamics.

  13. MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR MICROSTRUCTURE EVOLUTION IN THE SEAMLESS TUBE ROLLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Nolasco de Carvalho

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present recent developments on mathematical modeling for microstructure evolution in different steel types, applied to a continuous rolling of seamless tubes. The development of these models depends on careful characterization of the thermomechanical cycle and/on correct selection and adjustment of equations which describes the several metallurgical phenomena involved on this process. The adjustments of these models are done using the results obtained in hot torsion simulations. For this, the thermomechanical cycles are simplified considering the equipment limitations in reproduce some strain, strain rates and cooling rates developed industrially. Samples for optical microscopy were obtained by interruption of simulations after selected steps of process. After adjustment of each model with results from simulation, the final microstructures are compared with those obtained in industrial scale. In general, good correlations are observed.

  14. Spatial and temporal scales of shoreline morphodynamics derived from video camera observations for the island of Sylt, German Wadden Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blossier, Brice; Bryan, Karin R.; Daly, Christopher J.; Winter, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Spatial and temporal scales of beach morphodynamics were assessed for the island of Sylt, German Wadden Sea, based on continuous video camera monitoring data from 2011 to 2014 along a 1.3 km stretch of sandy beach. They served to quantify, at this location, the amount of shoreline variability covered by beach monitoring schemes, depending on the time interval and alongshore resolution of the surveys. Correlation methods, used to quantify the alongshore spatial scales of shoreline undulations, were combined with semi-empirical modelling and spectral analyses of shoreline temporal fluctuations. The data demonstrate that an alongshore resolution of 150 m and a monthly survey time interval capture 70% of the kilometre-scale shoreline variability over the 2011-2014 study period. An alongshore spacing of 10 m and a survey time interval of 5 days would be required to monitor 95% variance of the shoreline temporal fluctuations with steps of 5% changes in variance over space. Although monitoring strategies such as land or airborne surveying are reliable methods of data collection, video camera deployment remains the cheapest technique providing the high spatiotemporal resolution required to monitor subkilometre-scale morphodynamic processes involving, for example, small- to middle-sized beach nourishment.

  15. Spatial and temporal scales of shoreline morphodynamics derived from video camera observations for the island of Sylt, German Wadden Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blossier, Brice; Bryan, Karin R.; Daly, Christopher J.; Winter, Christian

    2016-08-01

    Spatial and temporal scales of beach morphodynamics were assessed for the island of Sylt, German Wadden Sea, based on continuous video camera monitoring data from 2011 to 2014 along a 1.3 km stretch of sandy beach. They served to quantify, at this location, the amount of shoreline variability covered by beach monitoring schemes, depending on the time interval and alongshore resolution of the surveys. Correlation methods, used to quantify the alongshore spatial scales of shoreline undulations, were combined with semi-empirical modelling and spectral analyses of shoreline temporal fluctuations. The data demonstrate that an alongshore resolution of 150 m and a monthly survey time interval capture 70% of the kilometre-scale shoreline variability over the 2011-2014 study period. An alongshore spacing of 10 m and a survey time interval of 5 days would be required to monitor 95% variance of the shoreline temporal fluctuations with steps of 5% changes in variance over space. Although monitoring strategies such as land or airborne surveying are reliable methods of data collection, video camera deployment remains the cheapest technique providing the high spatiotemporal resolution required to monitor subkilometre-scale morphodynamic processes involving, for example, small- to middle-sized beach nourishment.

  16. Historical shoreline mapping (I): improving techniques and reducing positioning errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Danforth, William W.

    1994-01-01

    A critical need exists among coastal researchers and policy-makers for a precise method to obtain shoreline positions from historical maps and aerial photographs. A number of methods that vary widely in approach and accuracy have been developed to meet this need. None of the existing methods, however, address the entire range of cartographic and photogrammetric techniques required for accurate coastal mapping. Thus, their application to many typical shoreline mapping problems is limited. In addition, no shoreline mapping technique provides an adequate basis for quantifying the many errors inherent in shoreline mapping using maps and air photos. As a result, current assessments of errors in air photo mapping techniques generally (and falsely) assume that errors in shoreline positions are represented by the sum of a series of worst-case assumptions about digitizer operator resolution and ground control accuracy. These assessments also ignore altogether other errors that commonly approach ground distances of 10 m. This paper provides a conceptual and analytical framework for improved methods of extracting geographic data from maps and aerial photographs. We also present a new approach to shoreline mapping using air photos that revises and extends a number of photogrammetric techniques. These techniques include (1) developing spatially and temporally overlapping control networks for large groups of photos; (2) digitizing air photos for use in shoreline mapping; (3) preprocessing digitized photos to remove lens distortion and film deformation effects; (4) simultaneous aerotriangulation of large groups of spatially and temporally overlapping photos; and (5) using a single-ray intersection technique to determine geographic shoreline coordinates and express the horizontal and vertical error associated with a given digitized shoreline. As long as historical maps and air photos are used in studies of shoreline change, there will be a considerable amount of error (on the

  17. CapeCodBay_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics from Cape Cod Bay coastal region from the Cape Cod Canal in Sandwich to Long Point in Provincetown

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  18. SouthShore_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics from the South Shore coastal region from Hewitts Cove in Hingham to the Cape Cod Canal in Sandwich

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  19. MarthasVineyard_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics from the Martha's Vineyard coastal region including Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and the Atlantic Ocean-facing coasts of Martha's Vineyard and Nomans Land.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  20. OuterCapeCod_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics from the Outer Cape Cod coastal region from Long Point in Provincetown to Monomoy Island, Massachusetts.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  1. ElizabethIslands_shorelines.shp - Shorelines used to calculate shoreline change statistics from the Elizabeth Islands coastal region of Massachusetts from Nonamesset Island southwest of Woods Hole to Cuttyhunk Island north of Martha's Vineyard.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  2. Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 4.3 shoreline intersection points used to calculate long-term shoreline change statistics for the South Shore coastal region from Hewitts Cove in Hingham to the Cape Cod Canal in Sandwich

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  3. Chempy: A flexible chemical evolution model for abundance fitting. Do the Sun's abundances alone constrain chemical evolution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybizki, Jan; Just, Andreas; Rix, Hans-Walter

    2017-09-01

    Elemental abundances of stars are the result of the complex enrichment history of their galaxy. Interpretation of observed abundances requires flexible modeling tools to explore and quantify the information about Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) stored in such data. Here we present Chempy, a newly developed code for GCE modeling, representing a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of five to ten parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: for example, the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF), and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Unlike established approaches, Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets. It is essentially a chemical evolution fitting tool. We straightforwardly extend Chempy to a multi-zone scheme. As an illustrative application, we show that interesting parameter constraints result from only the ages and elemental abundances of the Sun, Arcturus, and the present-day interstellar medium (ISM). For the first time, we use such information to infer the IMF parameter via GCE modeling, where we properly marginalize over nuisance parameters and account for different yield sets. We find that 11.6+ 2.1-1.6% of the IMF explodes as core-collapse supernova (CC-SN), compatible with Salpeter (1955, ApJ, 121, 161). We also constrain the incidence of SN Ia per 103M⊙ to 0.5-1.4. At the same time, this Chempy application shows persistent discrepancies between predicted and observed abundances for some elements, irrespective of the chosen yield set. These cannot be remedied by any variations of Chempy's parameters and could be an indication of missing nucleosynthetic channels. Chempy could be a powerful tool to confront predictions from stellar

  4. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  5. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS Extension for Calculating Shoreline Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  6. A simple model linking galaxy and dark matter evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birrer, Simon; Lilly, Simon; Amara, Adam; Paranjape, Aseem; Refregier, Alexandre, E-mail: simon.birrer@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: simon.lilly@phys.ethz.ch [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2014-09-20

    We construct a simple phenomenological model for the evolving galaxy population by incorporating predefined baryonic prescriptions into a dark matter hierarchical merger tree. The model is based on the simple gas-regulator model introduced by Lilly et al., coupled with the empirical quenching rules of Peng et al. The simplest model already does quite well in reproducing, without re-adjusting the input parameters, many observables, including the main sequence sSFR-mass relation, the faint end slope of the galaxy mass function, and the shape of the star forming and passive mass functions. Similar to observations and/or the recent phenomenological model of Behroozi et al., which was based on epoch-dependent abundance-matching, our model also qualitatively reproduces the evolution of the main sequence sSFR(z) and SFRD(z) star formation rate density relations, the M{sub s} – M{sub h} stellar-to-halo mass relation, and the SFR – M{sub h} relation. Quantitatively the evolution of sSFR(z) and SFRD(z) is not steep enough, the M{sub s} – M{sub h} relation is not quite peaked enough, and, surprisingly, the ratio of quenched to star forming galaxies around M* is not quite high enough. We show that these deficiencies can simultaneously be solved by ad hoc allowing galaxies to re-ingest some of the gas previously expelled in winds, provided that this is done in a mass-dependent and epoch-dependent way. These allow the model galaxies to reduce an inherent tendency to saturate their star formation efficiency, which emphasizes how efficient galaxies around M* are in converting baryons into stars and highlights the fact that quenching occurs at the point when galaxies are rapidly approaching the maximum possible efficiency of converting baryons into stars.

  7. A model for the evolution of nucleotide polymerase directionality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Ballanco

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In all known living organisms, every enzyme that synthesizes nucleic acid polymers does so by adding nucleotide 5′-triphosphates to the 3′-hydroxyl group of the growing chain. This results in the well known 5'→3' directionality of all DNA and RNA Polymerases. The lack of any alternative mechanism, e.g. addition in a 3'→5' direction, may indicate a very early founder effect in the evolution of life, or it may be the result of a selective pressure against such an alternative. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In an attempt to determine whether the lack of an alternative polymerase directionality is the result of a founder effect or evolutionary selection, we have constructed a basic model of early polymerase evolution. This model is informed by the essential chemical properties of the nucleotide polymerization reaction. With this model, we are able to simulate the growth of organisms with polymerases that synthesize either 5'→3' or 3'→5' in isolation or in competition with each other. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have found that a competition between organisms with 5'→3' polymerases and 3'→5' polymerases only results in a evolutionarily stable strategy under certain conditions. Furthermore, we have found that mutations lead to a much clearer delineation between conditions that lead to a stable coexistence of these populations and conditions which ultimately lead to success for the 5'→3' form. In addition to presenting a plausible explanation for the uniqueness of enzymatic polymerization reactions, we hope these results also provide an example of how whole organism evolution can be understood based on molecular details.

  8. Fault evolution-test dependency modeling for mechanical systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-dong TAN; Jian-lu LUO; Qing LI; Bing LU; Jing QIU

    2015-01-01

    Tracking the process of fault growth in mechanical systems using a range of tests is important to avoid catastrophic failures. So, it is necessary to study the design for testability (DFT). In this paper, to improve the testability performance of me-chanical systems for tracking fault growth, a fault evolution-test dependency model (FETDM) is proposed to implement DFT. A testability analysis method that considers fault trackability and predictability is developed to quantify the testability performance of mechanical systems. Results from experiments on a centrifugal pump show that the proposed FETDM and testability analysis method can provide guidance to engineers to improve the testability level of mechanical systems.

  9. River Network Evolution Based on Fluid-Erosion Model

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    A new landscape evolution model is proposed which is composed of the shallow water equations for the fluid above the sediment and the mass conservation equation of the sediment. Numerical simulations of the formation of landscape and river network are carried out based on these equations. It is shown that steady patterns of river network are formed for the initial inclinations of slopes within 0.00005 and 0.005. The fractal dimensions of the river network and the exponent of Hack's law are ob...

  10. Dynamical Phase Transition in a Model for Evolution with Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waclaw, Bartłomiej; Allen, Rosalind J.; Evans, Martin R.

    2010-12-01

    We study a simple quasispecies model for evolution in two different habitats, with different fitness landscapes, coupled through one-way migration. Our key finding is a dynamical phase transition at a critical value of the migration rate, at which the time to reach the steady state diverges. The genetic composition of the population is qualitatively different above and below the transition. Using results from localization theory, we show that the critical migration rate may be very small—demonstrating that evolutionary outcomes can be very sensitive to even a small amount of migration.

  11. Modeling microstructural evolution and the mechanical response of superplastic materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesuer, D.R.; Syn, C.K.; Cadwell, K.L.; Preuss, C.S.

    1993-01-11

    A model has been developed that accounts for grain growth during, superplastic flow and its subsequent influence on stress-strain-strain rate behavior. These studies are experimentally based and have involved two different types of superplastic materials -- a quasi-single phase metal (Coronze 638) and a microduplex metal (ultrahigh-carbon steel - UHCS). In both materials the kinetics of strain-enhanced grain growth have been studied as a function of strain, strain rate and temperature. An equation for the rate of grain growth has been developed that incorporates the influence of temperature. The evolution of the grain size distribution during superplastic deformation has also been investigated. Our model integrates grain growth laws derived from these studies with two mechanism based, rate dependent constitutive laws to predict the stress-strainstrain rate behavior of materials during superplastic deformation. The influence of crain size distribution and its evolution with strain and strain rate on the stress-strain-strain rate behavior has been represented through the use of distributed parameters. The model can capture the stress-strain-strain rate behavior over a wide range of strains and strain rates with a single set of parameters. Many subtle features of the mechanical response of these materials can be adequately predicted.

  12. Speciation and Extinction in a simple model of evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Head, D A

    1996-01-01

    We introduce a simple model of macro-coevolution which allows the branching and termination of species lines and also incorporates external influences to the ecosystem. The strength of the external influences and the likelihood of speciation and extinction are defined from the fitness landscapes by two new parameters, $\\delta g$ and $\\delta s$. Results from numerical simulations show that the total number of species fluctuates about a natural system size $N_{\\infty}$. We present a mean-field theory which predicts $N_{\\infty}\\propto(K-1)\\delta s/\\delta g^{2}$, where $K-1$ is the system connectivity and $\\delta s$ is small. This result compares well with the numerical simulations. For large $\\delta s$, we demonstrate why this expression changes to $N_{\\infty}\\propto(K-1)\\delta s^{2}/\\delta g^{2}$. We compare the model to the fossil record, and comment on the role of ecological niches in models of evolution.

  13. PanDA's Role in ATLAS Computing Model Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Maeno, T; The ATLAS collaboration

    2014-01-01

    During Run 1 at the Large Hadron Collider from 2009-2013, the ATLAS experiment successfully met the computing challenge of accumulating, managing and analyzing a volume of data now exceeding 140 PB, processed at over 100 sites around the world, and accessed by thousands of physicists. This accomplishment required nimbleness and flexibility in the distributed computing infrastructure, both hardware and software, as the operational computing model evolved during the run based on experience. A critical enabler for this evolution was PanDA, the ATLAS workload management system used for production and distributed analysis. PanDA's capabilities were utilized and extended to dynamically and intelligently distribute data and processing workloads across ATLAS resources based on data popularity and resource availability, thereby 'flattening' an originally hierarchical computing model, in order to use resources more efficiently. A new round of PanDA development now taking place will continue to evolve the model for bett...

  14. Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, William T.; Lazzara, David; Haimes, Robert

    2010-01-01

    The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

  15. Quintessence models and the cosmological evolution of α

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seokcheon; Olive, Keith A.; Pospelov, Maxim

    2004-10-01

    The cosmological evolution of a quintessencelike scalar field ϕ coupled to matter and gauge fields leads to effective modifications of the coupling constants and particle masses over time. We analyze a class of models where the scalar field potential V(ϕ) and the couplings to matter B(ϕ) admit common extremum in ϕ, as in the Damour-Polyakov ansatz. We find that even for the simplest choices of potentials and B(ϕ), the observational constraints on Δα/α coming from quasar absorption spectra, the Oklo phenomenon and Big Bang nucleosynthesis provide complementary constraints on the parameters of the model. We show the evolutionary history of these models in some detail and describe the effects of a varying mass for dark matter.

  16. Quintessence Models and the Cosmological Evolution of alpha

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, S; Pospelov, M; Lee, Seokcheon; Olive, Keith A.; Pospelov, Maxim

    2004-01-01

    The cosmological evolution of a quintessence-like scalar field, phi, coupled to matter and gauge fields leads to effective modifications of the coupling constants and particle masses over time. We analyze a class of models where the scalar field potential V(phi) and the couplings to matter B(phi) admit common extremum in phi, as in the Damour-Polyakov ansatz. We find that even for the simplest choices of potentials and B(phi), the observational constraints on delta alpha/alpha coming from quasar absorption spectra, the Oklo phenomenon and Big Bang nucleosynthesis provide complementary constraints on the parameters of the model. We show the evolutionary history of these models in some detail and describe the effects of a varying mass for dark matter.

  17. Modeling the summertime evolution of sea-ice melt ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lüthje, Mikael; Feltham, D.L.; Taylor, P.D.;

    2006-01-01

    We present a mathematical model describing the summer melting of sea ice. We simulate the evolution of melt ponds and determine area coverage and total surface ablation. The model predictions are tested for sensitivity to the melt rate of unponded ice, enhanced melt rate beneath the melt ponds......, vertical seepage, and horizontal permeability. The model is initialized with surface topographies derived from laser altimetry corresponding to first-year sea ice and multiyear sea ice. We predict that there are large differences in the depth of melt ponds and the area of coverage between the two types...... of ice. We also find that the vertical seepage rate and the melt rate of unponded ice are important in determining the total surface ablation and area covered by melt ponds....

  18. Modeling the summertime evolution of sea-ice melt ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lüthje, Mikael; Feltham, D.L.; Taylor, P.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a mathematical model describing the summer melting of sea ice. We simulate the evolution of melt ponds and determine area coverage and total surface ablation. The model predictions are tested for sensitivity to the melt rate of unponded ice, enhanced melt rate beneath the melt ponds......, vertical seepage, and horizontal permeability. The model is initialized with surface topographies derived from laser altimetry corresponding to first-year sea ice and multiyear sea ice. We predict that there are large differences in the depth of melt ponds and the area of coverage between the two types...... of ice. We also find that the vertical seepage rate and the melt rate of unponded ice are important in determining the total surface ablation and area covered by melt ponds....

  19. Multiphasic growth models and the evolution of prolonged growth exemplified by human brain evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrba, E S

    1998-02-07

    New models for multiphasic growth are presented. They are illustrated by analysis of brain growth in humans and chimpanzees, and the results are used to test the hypothesis of evolution by proportional growth prolongation: that all descendant growth phases are extended by the same factor while each remains at the ancestral growth rate. The results are consistent with the hypothesis and imply that gross brain weight increase towards humans required change in only one growth parameter: prolongation of the nonlinear ancestral growth phases. The restricted and orderly nature of the developmental changes hints at a basis in few genetic changes. Proportional growth prolongation is of general evolutionary importance because it can reorganize body proportions.

  20. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  1. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fernandes

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS. The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area – Portuguese Continental shelf – with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug

  2. 2010 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) digital ortho imagery collected on May 10, 2010. This dataset contains digitized...

  3. Rapid Characterization of Shorelines using a Georeferenced Video Mapping System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Michael G.; Judd, Chaeli; Marcoe, K.

    2012-09-01

    Increased understanding of shoreline conditions is needed, yet current approaches are limited in ability to characterize remote areas or document features at a finer resolution. Documentation using video mapping may provide a rapid and repeatable method for assessing the current state of the environment and determining changes to the shoreline over time. In this study, we compare two studies using boat-based, georeferenced video mapping in coastal Washington and the Columbia River Estuary to map and characterize coastal stressors and functional data. In both areas, mapping multiple features along the shoreline required approximation of the coastline. However, characterization of vertically oriented features such as shoreline armoring and small features such as pilings and large woody debris was possible. In addition, end users noted that geovideo provides a permanent record to allow a user to examine recorded video anywhere along a transect or at discrete points.

  4. Rocky Mountain Arsenal Lower Derby Lake shoreline expansion project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The purpose of this Project Completion Report is to document the completion of the Lower Derby Lake Shoreline Expansion Project and summarize project highlights....

  5. Alabama ESI: ESI (Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Alabama, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  6. 2014 Vectorized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from a U.S. Geological Survey topographic lidar survey that was conducted on January 16-18, 2014 over Breton Island, Louisiana and released...

  7. 1983 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from the National High Altitude Photography (NHAP) program. The NHAP was coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey as an interagency project...

  8. Rebuilding Habitat and Shoreline Resilience through Improved Flood Control Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the SFBWQP Rebuilding Habitat and Shoreline Resilience through Improved Flood Control Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  9. 1983 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from the National High Altitude Photography (NHAP) program. The NHAP was coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey as an interagency project...

  10. 2013 Vectorized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from a U.S. Geological Survey topographic lidar survey that was conducted on July 12-14, 2013 over Dauphin Island, Alabama and Chandeleur,...

  11. 2007 Digitized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) digital ortho imagery collected on October 11, 2007. This dataset contains digitized...

  12. 2013 Vectorized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from a U.S. Geological Survey topographic lidar survey that was conducted on July 12-14, 2013 over Dauphin Island, Alabama and Chandeleur,...

  13. 2014 Vectorized Shoreline for Breton Island, Louisiana (Geographic, NAD83)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines were derived from a U.S. Geological Survey topographic lidar survey that was conducted on January 16-18, 2014 over Breton Island, Louisiana and released...

  14. Louisiana ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of Louisiana classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI)...

  15. Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the coastal belt of Ghana: Case ... environment and affected the socio-economic life of local populations, threatened cultural heritage and hindered coastal tourism development.

  16. HYDRODYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF SHORELINE OWC TYPE WAVE ENERGY CONVERTERS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model to predict the hydrodynamic performance of a shoreline-mounted wave energy converter, normally referred to as Oscillating Water Column (OWC), was established. Based on the 3D boundary integral equation method, the 3D Green's function was utilized to describe the hydrodynamic flow around the device. Using geometrical data of a wave absorber device symmetrically placed in a channel with various barrier depths, the hydrodynamic efficiencies were calculated for regular waves. The results were the ncompared with analytical results published elsewhere Malmo[8] . And the comparison is shown to be good, thus validating the proposed numerical model. Furthermore, extensive experiments were also made in a wave tank with a 1:12 scale model of an OWC device of different geometrical configurations. The experimental measurements were compared with calculations using the newly developed numerical model. The comparison, which is also shown to be satisfactory, provides further support of the correctness and the accuracy of the numerical method presented in the paper.

  17. Decadal changes in shoreline patterns in Sundarbans, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chatterjee, N.; Mukhopadhyay, R.; Mitra, D.

    , 248 001, Uttarakhand, India 1. IntroductionErosion and accretion processes are common phenomena acrossthe shoreline that demarcates land and sea, and the rate of suchchange in shoreline is an indicator of coastal dynamics (NRC Report1990... erosion because of strong tidal current,vigorous wave action and other factors including the land-fall oftropical cyclone (Allison and Kepple 2001). Rapid subsidence,perhaps tectonic but accentuated by compaction and dewatering ofsediments has been...

  18. Lake Shorelines: Earth Analogs for Hypothesized Martian Coastal Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimbelman, J. R.; Williams, S. H.; Johnston, A. K.; Head, James W.

    2004-01-01

    The possibility of oceans on Mars has generated a lot of interest in the science community, but conclusive evidence supporting or refuting the ocean hypothesis has remained somewhat elusive. Precise topographic measurements of fresh-appearing shorelines from glacial Lake Lahontan were collected recently in an effort to obtain well-constrained data for comparison with the hypothesized Martian shorelines. This report summarizes the first results of the on-going research project.

  19. Modelling Dust Evolution in Galaxies with a Multiphase, Inhomogeneous ISM

    CERN Document Server

    Zhukovska, Svitlana; Jenkins, Edward B; Klessen, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    We develop a model of dust evolution in a multiphase, inhomogeneous ISM including dust growth and destruction processes. The physical conditions for grain evolution are taken from hydrodynamical simulations of giant molecular clouds in a Milky Way-like spiral galaxy. We improve the treatment of dust growth by accretion in the ISM to investigate the role of the temperature-dependent sticking coefficient and ion-grain interactions. From detailed observational data on the gas-phase Si abundances [Si/H]_{gas} measured in the local Galaxy, we derive a relation between the average [Si/H]_{gas} and the local gas density n(H) which we use as a critical constraint for the models. This relation requires a sticking coefficient that decreases with the gas temperature. The synthetic relation constructed from the spatial dust distribution reproduces the slope of -0.5 of the observed relation in cold clouds. This slope is steeper than that for the warm medium and is explained by the dust growth. We find that it occurs for a...

  20. Modeling Rotational Evolution of Young T Tauri Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aidle Esin, Ann; Baxter, E.; Corrales, L.

    2007-12-01

    Measurements of rotational periods of pre-main sequence stars in several young open clusters reveal a uniform trend. Stars with masses below 0.25 solar show a bimodal period distribution with fast and slow rotators clustered around 2 day and 8 day periods, respectively, while the period distribution of low-mass stars lacks the slow rotating component. In one popular interpretation of this observational result the slow rotators are identified with the "disk locked'' stars whose periods are fixed to the orbital periods at the inner edge of the accretion disk; the fast rotators are then assumed to have lost their connection to the disk. We argue that this scenario can account for observations only if the mass accretion rate in the disk declines with time. We construct a simple model for the period evolution in T Tauri stars that includes realistic prescriptions for the mass accretion rate, radius evolution and a better treatment of the transition between strong and weak accretion disk coupling. Using this model to simulate period distribution for a young cluster, we can qualitatively reproduce the observed results, but only if the accretion is allowed to continue after the disk and the star are no longer locked. This work was supported by the grant from the Research Corporation.

  1. A topic evolution model with sentiment and selective attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Xia-Meng; Wang, Wen-Dong; Zhai, Chun-Qing; Ma, Yan

    2017-04-01

    Topic evolution is a hybrid dynamics of information propagation and opinion interaction. The dynamics of opinion interaction is inherently interwoven with the dynamics of information propagation in the network, owing to the bidirectional influences between interaction and diffusion. The degree of sentiment determines if the topic can continue to spread from this node, and the selective attention determines the information flow direction and communicatee selection. For this end, we put forward a sentiment-based mixed dynamics model with selective attention, and applied the Bayesian updating rules on it. Our model can indirectly describe the isolated users who seem isolated from a topic due to some reasons even everybody around them has heard about it. Numerical simulations show that, more insiders initially and fewer simultaneous spreaders can lessen the extremism. To promote the topic diffusion or restrain the prevailing of extremism, fewer agents with constructive motivation and more agents with no involving motivation are encouraged.

  2. A mixing evolution model for bidirectional microblog user networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Wei-Guo; Liu, Yun

    2015-08-01

    Microblogs have been widely used as a new form of online social networking. Based on the user profile data collected from Sina Weibo, we find that the number of microblog user bidirectional friends approximately corresponds with the lognormal distribution. We then build two microblog user networks with real bidirectional relationships, both of which have not only small-world and scale-free but also some special properties, such as double power-law degree distribution, disassortative network, hierarchical and rich-club structure. Moreover, by detecting the community structures of the two real networks, we find both of their community scales follow an exponential distribution. Based on the empirical analysis, we present a novel evolution network model with mixed connection rules, including lognormal fitness preferential and random attachment, nearest neighbor interconnected in the same community, and global random associations in different communities. The simulation results show that our model is consistent with real network in many topology features.

  3. Heavy Ions Collision evolution modeling with ECHO-QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Rolando, Valentina; Beraudo, Andrea; Del Zanna, Luca; Becattini, Francesco; Chandra, Vinod; De Pace, Arturo; Nardi, Marzia

    2014-01-01

    We present a numerical code modeling the evolution of the medium formed in relativistic heavy ion collisions, ECHO-QGP. The code solves relativistic hydrodynamics in $(3+1)-$D, with dissipative terms included within the framework of Israel-Stewart theory; it can work both in Minkowskian and in Bjorken coordinates. Initial conditions are provided through an implementation of the Glauber model (both Optical and Monte Carlo), while freezeout and particle generation are based on the Cooper-Frye prescription. The code is validated against several test problems and shows remarkable stability and accuracy with the combination of a conservative (shock-capturing) approach and the high-order methods employed. In particular it beautifully agrees with the semi-analytic solution known as Gubser flow, both in the ideal and in the viscous Israel-Stewart case, up to very large times and without any ad hoc tuning of the algorithm.

  4. Random unitary evolution model of quantum Darwinism with pure decoherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanesković, Nenad

    2015-10-01

    We study the behavior of Quantum Darwinism [W.H. Zurek, Nat. Phys. 5, 181 (2009)] within the iterative, random unitary operations qubit-model of pure decoherence [J. Novotný, G. Alber, I. Jex, New J. Phys. 13, 053052 (2011)]. We conclude that Quantum Darwinism, which describes the quantum mechanical evolution of an open system S from the point of view of its environment E, is not a generic phenomenon, but depends on the specific form of input states and on the type of S- E-interactions. Furthermore, we show that within the random unitary model the concept of Quantum Darwinism enables one to explicitly construct and specify artificial input states of environment E that allow to store information about an open system S of interest with maximal efficiency.

  5. Stochastic group selection model for the evolution of altruism

    CERN Document Server

    Silva, A T C; Silva, Ana T. C.

    1999-01-01

    We study numerically and analytically a stochastic group selection model in which a population of asexually reproducing individuals, each of which can be either altruist or non-altruist, is subdivided into $M$ reproductively isolated groups (demes) of size $N$. The cost associated with being altruistic is modelled by assigning the fitness $1- \\tau$, with $\\tau \\in [0,1]$, to the altruists and the fitness 1 to the non-altruists. In the case that the altruistic disadvantage $\\tau$ is not too large, we show that the finite $M$ fluctuations are small and practically do not alter the deterministic results obtained for $M \\to \\infty$. However, for large $\\tau$ these fluctuations greatly increase the instability of the altruistic demes to mutations. These results may be relevant to the dynamics of parasite-host systems and, in particular, to explain the importance of mutation in the evolution of parasite virulence.

  6. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  7. Nonequilibrium Steady States in Models of Prebiotic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halley, J. W.; Wynveen, A.

    2014-12-01

    We report computational results from a model for prebiotic evolution.The model is schematic, but contains a correct description of thebasic statistical problem associated with understanding how the initiation of life can occur given the strong entropic barriers (sometimesknown as 'Eigen's paradox' and appearing in experiments as the 'tar problem'). The model is similar to one of the modelsintroduced years ago by Kauffman and coworkers. The important innovationwhich we introduce is imposition of the requirement that, to qualifyas a lifelike dynamical chemical system, the system must not be inchemical equilibrium. That constraint turns out to have major qualitativeeffects on the conclusions. In particular, very sparse chemical networksturn out to be the most favorable ones for generating autocatalyticnonequilibrium states. This suggests qualitatively that deserts might bebetter than ponds for initiating life. Some details of the models andsimulations will be described, including recent results in which weintroduce spatial diffusion and a proxy for temperature into the description ofthe model chemistry. Results on growth rates, convergence and theoverall probability of generation of lifelike states as a function ofparameters of the chemical network model will be presented.

  8. A probabilistic model for the evolution of RNA structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes Ian

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For the purposes of finding and aligning noncoding RNA gene- and cis-regulatory elements in multiple-genome datasets, it is useful to be able to derive multi-sequence stochastic grammars (and hence multiple alignment algorithms systematically, starting from hypotheses about the various kinds of random mutation event and their rates. Results Here, we consider a highly simplified evolutionary model for RNA, called "The TKF91 Structure Tree" (following Thorne, Kishino and Felsenstein's 1991 model of sequence evolution with indels, which we have implemented for pairwise alignment as proof of principle for such an approach. The model, its strengths and its weaknesses are discussed with reference to four examples of functional ncRNA sequences: a riboswitch (guanine, a zipcode (nanos, a splicing factor (U4 and a ribozyme (RNase P. As shown by our visualisations of posterior probability matrices, the selected examples illustrate three different signatures of natural selection that are highly characteristic of ncRNA: (i co-ordinated basepair substitutions, (ii co-ordinated basepair indels and (iii whole-stem indels. Conclusions Although all three types of mutation "event" are built into our model, events of type (i and (ii are found to be better modeled than events of type (iii. Nevertheless, we hypothesise from the model's performance on pairwise alignments that it would form an adequate basis for a prototype multiple alignment and genefinding tool.

  9. Multi-scale modeling in microstructure evolution of materials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Intelligent design and control of the microstructure to tailor properties of materials is the dream that materials scientists have been worked hard for many years. Formation of research area of computational materials science paves the way to realize the dream. Simulation of microstructure evolution is a chief branch of the computational materials science and has caused great attention from materials researchers. Multi-scale modeling gets popular just within 5- 6 years recently due to huge research works to try to shorten the distance between simulation and application. People have to command one or more classical simulation methods in order to do the multi-scale modeling so chief simulation methods will be discussed first and then more reviews in detail are given to the phase field simulation. The main part of the paper is carried out to introduce two key approaches to do the multi-scale modeling job. It is suggested that extension of the multiscale modeling is necessary to study the technologies to link microstructure simulation, processing simulation and property simulation each other as well as to build bridges between different simulation methods and between analytical models and numerical models.

  10. Nonequilibrium steady states in a model for prebiotic evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynveen, A.; Fedorov, I.; Halley, J. W.

    2014-02-01

    Some statistical features of steady states of a Kauffman-like model for prebiotic evolution are reported from computational studies. We postulate that the interesting "lifelike" states will be characterized by a nonequilibrium distribution of species and a time variable species self-correlation function. Selecting only such states from the population of final states produced by the model yields the probability of the appearance of such states as a function of a parameter p of the model. p is defined as the probability that a possible reaction in the the artificial chemistry actually appears in the network of chemical reactions. Small p corresponds to sparse networks utilizing a small fraction of the available reactions. We find that the probability of the appearance of such lifelike states exhibits a maximum as a function of p: at large p, most final states are in chemical equilibrium and hence are excluded by our criterion. At very small p, the sparseness of the network makes the probability of formation of any nontrivial dynamic final state low, yielding a low probability of production of lifelike states in this limit as well. We also report results on the diversity of the lifelike states (as defined here) that are produced. Repeated starts of the model evolution with different random number seeds in a given reaction network lead to final lifelike states which have a greater than random likelihood of resembling one another. Thus a form of "convergence" is observed. On the other hand, in different reaction networks with the same p, lifelike final states are statistically uncorrelated. In summary, the main results are (1) there is an optimal p or "sparseness" for production of lifelike states in our model—neither very dense nor very sparse networks are optimal—and (2) for a given p or sparseness, the resulting lifelike states can be extremely different. We discuss some possible implications for studies of the origin of life.

  11. The metastable dynamo model of stellar rotational evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Timothy M., E-mail: tbrown@lcogt.net [Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network, 6740 Cortona Drive, Suite 102, Goleta, CA 93117 (United States)

    2014-07-10

    This paper introduces a new empirical model for the rotational evolution of Sun-like stars—those with surface convection zones and non-convective interior regions. Previous models do not match the morphology of observed (rotation period)-color diagrams, notably the existence of a relatively long-lived 'C-sequence' of fast rotators first identified by Barnes. This failure motivates the Metastable Dynamo Model (MDM) described here. The MDM posits that stars are born with their magnetic dynamos operating in a mode that couples very weakly to the stellar wind, so their (initially very short) rotation periods at first change little with time. At some point, this mode spontaneously and randomly changes to a strongly coupled mode, the transition occurring with a mass-dependent lifetime that is of the order of 100 Myr. I show that with this assumption, one can obtain good fits to observations of young clusters, particularly for ages of 150-200 Myr. Previous models and the MDM both give qualitative agreement with the morphology of the slower-rotating 'I-sequence' stars, but none of them have been shown to accurately reproduce the stellar-mass-dependent evolution of the I-sequence stars, especially for clusters older than a few hundred million years. I discuss observational experiments that can test aspects of the MDM, and speculate that the physics underlying the MDM may be related to other situations described in the literature, in which stellar dynamos may have a multi-modal character.

  12. Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajasree, B. R.; Deo, M. C.; Sheela Nair, L.

    2016-12-01

    The prediction of the rate of shoreline shifts as well as that of erosion and accretion over future at a given location is traditionally done on the basis of analysis of past wave data. However under the changing climate affected by global warming it is better done considering the projected wave conditions over the future. The same is demonstrated in this work with respect to a stretch of coastline at 'Udupi' along the west coast of India. The shoreline changes in the past are first determined with the help of historic satellite images. A numerical shoreline model is later run on the basis of wave simulations of past 35 years as well as future 35 years. The latter wave conditions are obtained from wind projections corresponding to a high resolution regional climate model run for a moderate pathway of global warming. Alternatively prediction of the changes over future 35 years is also made by using the soft computing tool of artificial neural network (ANN) trained with the help of past satellite images. The results indicate that the area under consideration presently undergoes considerable erosion and this process will accelerate in future. The volume of annual sediment transport will also substantially increase over the future. The alternative computations made with the help of an ANN confirmed the future rising trend of erosion, albeit at smaller rate than the numerically predicted one.

  13. Sloping beach with wave breaking and moving shoreline on Romanian Black Sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.; Anton, I. A.

    2016-08-01

    Purpose of the work: wave breaking and wave run-up on a gently sloping plane beach from Romanian Black Sea Coast. That coast has a length of 244 km and an almost linear configuration with the exception of build-up areas. The paper concentrates on shoaling of regular waves and spilling type of wave breaking running with a simulation on software MIKE 21. Research and methodology: the paper contents the measurements for spilling and plunging type of breakers on a plane sloping beach with a slope of 1/45 starting in depth of 0.23 m to 0.46 m. A moving shoreline is included in the simulations. With respect to the parameters of the breaker model the standard values are applied. An explicit filter is introduced near the still water shoreline to remove short-wave instabilities and to dissipate the wave energy in the model. Results: the obtained values indicate the wave breaking and wave run-up processes, the spatial variation of a number of phase-averaged quantities and the shoreline motion converted intro a vertical and a horizontal displacement.

  14. Anthropogenic effects on shoreface and shoreline changes: Input from a multi-method analysis, Agadir Bay, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouiche, Ismail; Daoudi, Lahcen; Anthony, Edward J.; Sedrati, Mouncef; Ziane, Elhassane; Harti, Abderrazak; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In many situations, the links between shoreline fluctuations and larger-scale coastal change embracing the shoreface are not always well understood. In particular, meso-scale (years to decades) sand exchanges between the shoreface and the shoreline, considered as important on many wave-dominated coasts, are rather poorly understood and difficult to identify. Coastal systems where sediment transport is perturbed by engineering interventions on the shoreline and shoreface commonly provide fine examples liable to throw light on these links. This is especially so where shoreface bathymetric datasets, which are generally lacking, are collected over time, enabling more or less fine resolution of the meso-scale coastal sediment budget. Agadir Bay and the city of Agadir together form one of the two most important economic development poles on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. Using a combined methodological approach based on wave-current modelling, bathymetric chart-differencing, determination of shoreline fluctuations, and beach topographic surveying, we highlight the close links between variations in the bed of the inner shoreface and the bay shoreline involving both cross-shore and longshore sand transport pathways, sediment budget variations and new sediment cell patterns. We show that the significant changes that have affected the bay shoreline and shoreface since 1978 clearly reflect anthropogenic impacts, notably blocking of alongshore sand transport by Agadir harbour, completed in 1988, and the foundations of which lie well beyond the depth of wave closure. Construction of the harbour has led to the creation of a rapidly accreting beach against an original portion of rocky shoreline updrift and to a net sand loss exceeding 145,000 m3/year between 1978 and 2012 over 8.5 km2of the bay shoreface downdrift. Shoreline retreat has been further exacerbated by sand extraction from aeolian dunes and by flattening of these dunes to make space for tourist infrastructure. Digital

  15. Linking Experimental Characterization and Computational Modeling in Microstructural Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, Melik Cumhar [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2002-06-01

    It is known that by controlling microstructural development, desirable properties of materials can be achieved. The main objective of our research is to understand and control interface dominated material properties, and finally, to verify experimental results with computer simulations. In order to accomplish this objective, we studied the grain growth in detail with experimental techniques and computational simulations. We obtained 5170-grain data from an Aluminum-film (120μm thick) with a columnar grain structure from the Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Experimentally obtained starting microstructure and grain boundary properties are input for the three-dimensional grain growth simulation. In the computational model, minimization of the interface energy is the driving force for the grain boundary motion. The computed evolved microstructure is compared with the final experimental microstructure, after annealing at 550 ºC. Two different measures were introduced as methods of comparing experimental and computed microstructures. Modeling with anisotropic mobility explains a significant amount of mismatch between experiment and isotropic modeling. We have shown that isotropic modeling has very little predictive value. Microstructural evolution in columnar Aluminum foils can be correctly modeled with anisotropic parameters. We observed a strong similarity between grain growth experiments and anisotropic three-dimensional simulations.

  16. Linking Experimental Characterization and Computational Modeling in Microstructural Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, Melik Cumhur [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2002-06-01

    It is known that by controlling microstructural development, desirable properties of materials can be achieved. The main objective of our research is to understand and control interface dominated material properties, and finally, to verify experimental results with computer simulations. In order to accomplish this objective, we studied the grain growth in detail with experimental techniques and computational simulations. We obtained 5170-grain data from an Aluminum-film (120μm thick) with a columnar grain structure from the Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Experimentally obtained starting microstructure and grain boundary properties are input for the three-dimensional grain growth simulation. In the computational model, minimization of the interface energy is the driving force for the grain boundary motion. The computed evolved microstructure is compared with the final experimental microstructure, after annealing at 550 ºC. Two different measures were introduced as methods of comparing experimental and computed microstructures. Modeling with anisotropic mobility explains a significant amount of mismatch between experiment and isotropic modeling. We have shown that isotropic modeling has very little predictive value. Microstructural evolution in columnar Aluminum foils can be correctly modeled with anisotropic parameters. We observed a strong similarity between grain growth experiments and anisotropic three-dimensional simulations.

  17. Linking Experimental Characterization and Computational Modeling in Microstructural Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, Melik Cumhur [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2002-06-01

    It is known that by controlling microstructural development, desirable properties of materials can be achieved. The main objective of our research is to understand and control interface dominated material properties, and finally, to verify experimental results with computer simulations. In order to accomplish this objective, we studied the grain growth in detail with experimental techniques and computational simulations. We obtained 5170-grain data from an Aluminum-film (120μm thick) with a columnar grain structure from the Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Experimentally obtained starting microstructure and grain boundary properties are input for the three-dimensional grain growth simulation. In the computational model, minimization of the interface energy is the driving force for the grain boundary motion. The computed evolved microstructure is compared with the final experimental microstructure, after annealing at 550 ºC. Two different measures were introduced as methods of comparing experimental and computed microstructures. Modeling with anisotropic mobility explains a significant amount of mismatch between experiment and isotropic modeling. We have shown that isotropic modeling has very little predictive value. Microstructural evolution in columnar Aluminum foils can be correctly modeled with anisotropic parameters. We observed a strong similarity

  18. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  19. Uranus evolution models with simple thermal boundary layers

    CERN Document Server

    Nettelmann, N; Fortney, J J; Hamel, S; Yellamilli, S; Bethkenhagen, M; Redmer, R

    2016-01-01

    The strikingly low luminosity of Uranus (Teff ~ Teq) constitutes a long-standing challenge to our understanding of Ice Giant planets. Here we present the first Uranus structure and evolution models that are constructed to agree with both the observed low luminosity and the gravity field data. Our models make use of modern ab initio equations of state at high pressures for the icy components water, methane, and ammonia. Proceeding step by step, we confirm that adiabatic models yield cooling times that are too long, even when uncertainties in the ice:rock ratio (I:R) are taken into account. We then argue that the transition between the ice/rock-rich interior and the H/He-rich outer envelope should be stably stratified. Therefore, we introduce a simple thermal boundary and adjust it to reproduce the low luminosity. Due to this thermal boundary, the deep interior of the Uranus models are up to 2--3 warmer than adiabatic models, necessitating the presence of rocks in the deep interior with a possible I:R of $1\\tim...

  20. The dynamics of a coupled soilscape-landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welivitiya, Dimuth; Willgoose, Garry; Hancock, Greg

    2016-04-01

    In this study we present results obtained from a landform evolution model coupled with SSSPAM5D soilscape evolution model. This presentation will show a number of computer animations with this coupled model using a range of widely accepted soil profile weathering models, and erosion/armouring models. The animations clearly show that subtle changes in process can result in dramatic changes in long-term equilibrium hillslope and soilscape form. We will discuss the reasons for these differences, arguing from the various mathematical and physical assumptions modelled, and infer how observed hillslope form may provide identifiable (and perhaps quantifiable) landform and soilscape signatures of landscape and soilscape process, and in particular the coupling between the landscape and the soilscape. Specifically we have simulated soilscapes using 3 depth dependent weathering functions: 1) Exponential, 2) Humped and 3) Reversed exponential. The Exponential weathering function simulates physical weathering due to thermal effects, and the weathering rate exponentially decreases with depth. The Humped function simulates chemical and/or physical weathering with moisture feedbacks, where the highest weathering rate is at a finite depth below the surface and exponentially declines with depth. The Reversed exponential function simulates chemical weathering, and the highest weathering rate is at the soil-saprolite interface and exponentially decreases both above and below the interface. Both the Humped and Reversed exponential functions can be used as approximations to chemical weathering as they can be derived analytically by solving widely accepted geochemical weathering equations. The Humped function can arise where the weathering fluid is introduced at the top of the soil profile (e.g. rainfall equilibrated with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere), while the Reversed exponential can be derived when carbon dioxide is generated within the profile (e.g. by biodegradation of soil

  1. Evaluation of nourishment schemes based on long-term morphological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunnet, Nicholas; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils

    2012-01-01

    A recently developed long-term morphological modeling concept is applied to evaluate the impact of nourishment schemes. The concept combines detailed two-dimensional morphological models and simple one-line models for the coastline evolution and is particularly well suited for long-term simulatio...... site. This study strongly indicates that the hybrid model may be used as an engineering tool to predict shoreline response following the implementation of a nourishment project....

  2. Thermal evolution of the Schwinger model with Matrix Product Operators

    CERN Document Server

    Bañuls, M C; Cirac, J I; Jansen, K; Saito, H

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate the suitability of tensor network techniques for describing the thermal evolution of lattice gauge theories. As a benchmark case, we have studied the temperature dependence of the chiral condensate in the Schwinger model, using matrix product operators to approximate the thermal equilibrium states for finite system sizes with non-zero lattice spacings. We show how these techniques allow for reliable extrapolations in bond dimension, step width, system size and lattice spacing, and for a systematic estimation and control of all error sources involved in the calculation. The reached values of the lattice spacing are small enough to capture the most challenging region of high temperatures and the final results are consistent with the analytical prediction by Sachs and Wipf over a broad temperature range.

  3. Thermal evolution of the Schwinger model with matrix product operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banuls, M.C.; Cirac, J.I. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Quantenoptik, Garching (Germany); Cichy, K. [Frankfurt am Main Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Poznan Univ. (Poland). Faculty of Physics; DESY Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Institut fuer Computing (NIC); Jansen, K.; Saito, H. [DESY Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Institut fuer Computing (NIC)

    2015-10-15

    We demonstrate the suitability of tensor network techniques for describing the thermal evolution of lattice gauge theories. As a benchmark case, we have studied the temperature dependence of the chiral condensate in the Schwinger model, using matrix product operators to approximate the thermal equilibrium states for finite system sizes with non-zero lattice spacings. We show how these techniques allow for reliable extrapolations in bond dimension, step width, system size and lattice spacing, and for a systematic estimation and control of all error sources involved in the calculation. The reached values of the lattice spacing are small enough to capture the most challenging region of high temperatures and the final results are consistent with the analytical prediction by Sachs and Wipf over a broad temperature range.

  4. An evolution equation modeling inversion of tulip flames

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dold, J.W. [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom). School of Mathematics; Joulin, G. [E.N.S.M.A., Poitiers (France). Lab. d`Energetique et de Detonique

    1995-02-01

    The authors attempt to reduce the number of physical ingredients needed to model the phenomenon of tulip-flame inversion to a bare minimum. This is achieved by synthesizing the nonlinear, first-order Michelson-Sivashinsky (MS) equation with the second order linear dispersion relation of Landau and Darrieus, which adds only one extra term to the MS equation without changing any of its stationary behavior and without changing its dynamics in the limit of small density change when the MS equation is asymptotically valid. However, as demonstrated by spectral numerical solutions, the resulting second-order nonlinear evolution equation is found to describe the inversion of tulip flames in good qualitative agreement with classical experiments on the phenomenon. This shows that the combined influences of front curvature, geometric nonlinearity and hydrodynamic instability (including its second-order, or inertial effects, which are an essential result of vorticity production at the flame front) are sufficient to reproduce the inversion process.

  5. Box models for the evolution of atmospheric oxygen: an update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasting, J. F.

    1991-01-01

    A simple 3-box model of the atmosphere/ocean system is used to describe the various stages in the evolution of atmospheric oxygen. In Stage I, which probably lasted until redbeds began to form about 2.0 Ga ago, the Earth's surface environment was generally devoid of free O2, except possibly in localized regions of high productivity in the surface ocean. In Stage II, which may have lasted for less than 150 Ma, the atmosphere and surface ocean were oxidizing, while the deep ocean remained anoxic. In Stage III, which commenced with the disappearance of banded iron formations around 1.85 Ga ago and has lasted until the present, all three surface reservoirs contained appreciable amounts of free O2. Recent and not-so-recent controversies regarding the abundance of oxygen in the Archean atmosphere are identified and discussed. The rate of O2 increase during the Middle and Late Proterozoic is identified as another outstanding question.

  6. Box models for the evolution of atmospheric oxygen: an update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasting, J. F.

    1991-01-01

    A simple 3-box model of the atmosphere/ocean system is used to describe the various stages in the evolution of atmospheric oxygen. In Stage I, which probably lasted until redbeds began to form about 2.0 Ga ago, the Earth's surface environment was generally devoid of free O2, except possibly in localized regions of high productivity in the surface ocean. In Stage II, which may have lasted for less than 150 Ma, the atmosphere and surface ocean were oxidizing, while the deep ocean remained anoxic. In Stage III, which commenced with the disappearance of banded iron formations around 1.85 Ga ago and has lasted until the present, all three surface reservoirs contained appreciable amounts of free O2. Recent and not-so-recent controversies regarding the abundance of oxygen in the Archean atmosphere are identified and discussed. The rate of O2 increase during the Middle and Late Proterozoic is identified as another outstanding question.

  7. Evolution of dark-matter halos in numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilipenko, S. V.; Doroshkevich, A. G.; Gottlöber, S.

    2009-11-01

    The properties of gravitationally bound clouds (halos) of dark matter derived via numerical simulations of the distribution of dark matter in the Universe are investigated. The analysis makes use of a catalog of halos obtained in the European “MareNostrum Universe” project, which has achieved a better balance between resolution and representativeness than catalogs used earlier for similar studies. This has made it possible to refine the main tendencies displayed by the evolution of the halo masses and the angular velocities and density profiles of the halos. The results are compared with the newest available observational data and with known results obtained earlier in numerical simulations with lower resolution and using smaller samples of halos, making it possible to trace the influence of these factors on the results obtained. Disagreements between observations and numerical models obtained in earlier studies are confirmed, and possible ways to explain them discussed.

  8. Spatial and Temporal Behaviors in a Modified Evolution Model Based on Small World Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Xiao-Wei; ZHOU Li-Ming; CHEN Tian-Lun

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new modified evolution model on a small world network. In our model,the spatial and temporal correlations and the spatial-temporal evolve pattern of mutating nodes exhibit some particular behaviors different from those of the original BS evolution model. More importantly, these behaviors will change with φ, the density of short paths in our network.

  9. Evolution of complexity in a resource-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Lenin; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2017-02-01

    Through a resource-based modelling the evolution of organismal complexity is studied. In the model, the cells are characterized by their metabolic rates which, together with the availability of resource, determine the rate at which they divide. The population is structured in groups. Groups are also autonomous entities regarding reproduction and propagation, and so they correspond to a higher biological organization level. The model assumes reproductive altruism as there exists a fitness transfer from the cell level to the group level. Reproductive altruism comes about by inflicting a higher energetic cost to cells belonging to larger groups. On the other hand, larger groups are less prone to extinction. The strength of this benefit arising from group augmentation can be tuned by the synergistic parameter γ. Through extensive computer simulations we make a thorough exploration of the parameter space to find out the domain in which the formation of larger groups is allowed. We show that formation of small groups can be obtained for a low level of synergy. Larger group sizes can only be attained as synergistic interactions surpass a given level of strength. Although the total resource influx rate plays a key role in determining the number of groups coexisting at the equilibrium, its function on driving group size is minor. On the other hand, how the resource is seized by the groups matters.

  10. The NeQuick model genesis, uses and evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro M. Radicella

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available

    The genesis and evolution of the NeQuick model is reviewed from the initial ionospheric efforts made in the

    framework of the European COST actions on ionospheric issues to the last version of the model (NeQuick 2.

    Attention is given to the uses of the model particularly by the European satellite navigation and positioning systems

    EGNOS and GALILEO. Recent assessment studies on the performance of NeQuick 2 are also reviewed.


  11. Spatial Models of Prebiotic Evolution: Soup Before Pizza?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuring, István; Czárán, Tamás; Szabó, Péter; Károlyi, György; Toroczkai, Zoltán

    2003-10-01

    The problem of information integration and resistance to the invasion of parasitic mutants in prebiotic replicator systems is a notorious issue of research on the origin of life. Almost all theoretical studies published so far have demonstrated that some kind of spatial structure is indispensable for the persistence and/or the parasite resistance of any feasible replicator system. Based on a detailed critical survey of spatial models on prebiotic information integration, we suggest a possible scenario for replicator system evolution leading to the emergence of the first protocells capable of independent life. We show that even the spatial versions of the hypercycle model are vulnerable to selfish parasites in heterogeneous habitats. Contrary, the metabolic system remains persistent and coexistent with its parasites both on heterogeneous surfaces and in chaotically mixing flowing media. Persistent metabolic parasites can be converted to metabolic cooperators, or they can gradually obtain replicase activity. Our simulations show that, once replicase activity emerged, a gradual and simultaneous evolutionary improvement of replicase functionality (speed and fidelity) and template efficiency is possible only on a surface that constrains the mobility of macromolecule replicators. Based on the results of the models reviewed, we suggest that open chaotic flows (`soup') and surface dynamics (`pizza') both played key roles in the sequence of evolutionary events ultimately concluding in the appearance of the first living cell on Earth.

  12. Modeling the chemical evolution of nitrogen oxides near roadways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan Jason; DenBleyker, Allison; McDonald-Buller, Elena; Allen, David; Zhang, K. Max

    2011-01-01

    The chemical evolution of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and nitrogen monoxide (NO) in the vicinity of roadways is numerically investigated using a computational fluid dynamics model, CFD-VIT-RIT and a Gaussian-based model, CALINE4. CFD-VIT-RIT couples a standard k- ɛ turbulence model for turbulent mixing and the Finite-Rate model for chemical reactions. CALINE4 employs a discrete parcel method, assuming that chemical reactions are independent of the dilution process. The modeling results are compared to the field measurement data collected near two roadways in Austin, Texas, State Highway 71 (SH-71) and Farm to Market Road 973 (FM-973), under parallel and perpendicular wind conditions during the summer of 2007. In addition to ozone (O 3), other oxidants and reactive species including hydroperoxyl radical (HO 2), organic peroxyl radical (RO 2), formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH 3CHO) are considered in the transformation from NO to NO 2. CFD-VIT-RIT is shown to be capable of predicting both NO x and NO 2 profiles downwind. CALINE4 is able to capture the NO x profiles, but underpredicts NO 2 concentrations under high wind velocity. Our study suggests that the initial NO 2/NO x ratios have to be carefully selected based on traffic conditions in order to assess NO 2 concentrations near roadways. The commonly assumed NO 2/NO x ratio by volume of 5% may not be suitable for most roadways, especially those with a high fraction of heavy-duty truck traffic. In addition, high O 3 concentrations and high traffic volumes would lead to the peak NO 2 concentration occurring near roadways with elevated concentrations persistent over a long distance downwind.

  13. A Fault Evolution Model Including the Rupture Dynamic Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Chen, X.

    2011-12-01

    tip keeps the rupture continuing easily. Therefore, comparing with the current simulation, we expect a different stress evolution after a large earthquake in a short time scale, which is very essential for the short-term prediction. Once the model is successfully constructed, we intend to apply it to the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield segment. We try to simulate the seismicity evolution and the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip and interseismic creep in the past decades. We expect to reproduce some specific events and slip distributions.

  14. Beans (Phaseolus ssp.) as a Model for Understanding Crop Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitocchi, Elena; Rau, Domenico; Bellucci, Elisa; Rodriguez, Monica; Murgia, Maria L.; Gioia, Tania; Santo, Debora; Nanni, Laura; Attene, Giovanna; Papa, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the most significant outcomes in the literature regarding the origin of Phaseolus genus, the geographical distribution of the wild species, the domestication process, and the wide spread out of the centers of origin. Phaseolus can be considered as a unique model for the study of crop evolution, and in particular, for an understanding of the convergent phenotypic evolution that occurred under domestication. The almost unique situation that characterizes the Phaseolus genus is that five of its ∼70 species have been domesticated (i.e., Phaseolus vulgaris, P. coccineus, P. dumosus, P. acutifolius, and P. lunatus), and in addition, for P. vulgaris and P. lunatus, the wild forms are distributed in both Mesoamerica and South America, where at least two independent and isolated episodes of domestication occurred. Thus, at least seven independent domestication events occurred, which provides the possibility to unravel the genetic basis of the domestication process not only among species of the same genus, but also between gene pools within the same species. Along with this, other interesting features makes Phaseolus crops very useful in the study of evolution, including: (i) their recent divergence, and the high level of collinearity and synteny among their genomes; (ii) their different breeding systems and life history traits, from annual and autogamous, to perennial and allogamous; and (iii) their adaptation to different environments, not only in their centers of origin, but also out of the Americas, following their introduction and wide spread through different countries. In particular for P. vulgaris this resulted in the breaking of the spatial isolation of the Mesoamerican and Andean gene pools, which allowed spontaneous hybridization, thus increasing of the possibility of novel genotypes and phenotypes. This knowledge that is associated to the genetic resources that have been conserved ex situ and in

  15. Evolution and History in a new "Mathematical SETI" model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maccone, Claudio

    2014-01-01

    In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15]) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17]), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a single mathematical scheme. This model is based on exponentials and lognormal probability distributions, called "b-lognormals" if they start at any positive time b ("birth") larger than zero. Indeed: Darwinian evolution theory may be regarded as a part of SETI theory in that the factor fl in the Drake equation represents the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually arose, as it happened on Earth. In 2008 (Maccone, 2008 [9]) this author firstly provided a statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. This fact is a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the product of a number of independent random variables whose probability densities are unknown and independent of each other approached the lognormal distribution if the number of factors is increased at will, i.e. it approaches infinity. Also, in Maccone (2011 [15]), it was shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormal distributions constrained between the time axis and the exponential growth curve. This was a brand-new result. And one more new and far-reaching idea was to define Darwinian Evolution as a particular realization of a stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) having the above exponential as its own mean value curve. The b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being, let it be a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization. In Maccone, (2012 [17, Chapters 6, 7, 8 and 11]), as well as in the present paper, we give

  16. Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

    2017-09-25

    Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

  17. Co-Evolution Model of AGNs and Nuclear Starbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakatu, N.; Wada, K.

    2009-10-01

    We propose a new evolutionary model of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and a circumnuclear disk (CND), taking into account the mass-supply from a host galaxy and the physical states of CND. In the model, two distinct accretion modes depending on gravitational stability of the CND play a key role on accreting gas to a SMBH. (i) If the CND is gravitationally unstable, energy feedback from supernovae (SNe) supports a geometrically thick, turbulent gas disk. The accretion in this mode is dominated by turbulent viscosity, and it is significantly larger than that in the mode (ii), i.e., the CND is supported by gas pressure. Once the gas supply from the host is stopped, the high accretion phase changes to the low one (mode (ii)), but there is a delay with ˜ 108 yr. Through this evolution, the gas-rich CND turns into the gas poor stellar disk. We found that not all the gas supplied from the host galaxy to the central 100 pc region accrete onto the SMBH even in the high accretion phase (mode (i)), because the part of gas is used to form stars. Moreover, a super-Eddington accretion is possible in the high accretion phase and thus the its condition is briefly discussed.

  18. Modelling the chemical evolution in galaxies with KROME

    CERN Document Server

    Bovino, Stefano; Capelo, Pedro R; Schleicher, Dominik R G; Banerjee, R

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present and test chemical models for three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy evolution. The microphysics is modelled by employing the public chemistry package KROME and the chemical networks have been tested to work in a wide range of densities and temperatures. We describe a simple H/He network following the formation of H2, and a more sophisticated network which includes metals. Photochemistry, thermal processes, and different prescriptions for the H2 catalysis on dust are presented and tested within a simple one-zone framework. We explore the effect of changing some of the key parameters such as metallicity, radiation and non-equilibrium versus equilibrium metal cooling approximations on the transition between the different gas phases. We find that employing an accurate treatment of the dust-related processes induces a faster HI-H2 transition. In addition, we show when the equilibrium assumption for metal cooling holds, and how a non-equilibrium approach affects the thermal ...

  19. Package models and the information crisis of prebiotic evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Daniel A M M; Fontanari, José F

    2008-05-21

    The coexistence between different types of templates has been the choice solution to the information crisis of prebiotic evolution, triggered by the finding that a single RNA-like template cannot carry enough information to code for any useful replicase. In principle, confining d distinct templates of length L in a package or protocell, whose survival depends on the coexistence of the templates it holds in, could resolve this crisis provided that d is made sufficiently large. Here we review the prototypical package model of Niesert et al. [1981. Origin of life between Scylla and Charybdis. J. Mol. Evol. 17, 348-353] which guarantees the greatest possible region of viability of the protocell population, and show that this model, and hence the entire package approach, does not resolve the information crisis. In particular, we show that the total information stored in a viable protocell (Ld) tends to a constant value that depends only on the spontaneous error rate per nucleotide of the template replication mechanism. As a result, an increase of d must be followed by a decrease of L, so that the net information gain is null.

  20. Accurate Linking of Lake Erie Water Level with Shoreline Datum Using GPS Buoy and Satellite Altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai-Chien Cheng

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a need to accurately link the water level to the shoreline vertical datum for various applications including coastal management, lake/river/estuary/wetland hydrological or storm surge modeling/forecasting. Coastal topography is historically surveyed and referenced to the predetermined vertical datum in terms of orthometric heights, or the heights above the geoid, which is poorly known in terms of accuracy and lack of adequate spatial resolution for coastal applications such as estuary or storm surge modeling. We demonstrate an accurate linking of the lake surface to a shoreline datum using satellite techniques, including GPS buoy and satellite altimetry, water level gauges, and local geoid and lake circulation models. The possible error sources are analyzed and an error budget is reported in this study. An innovated method to estimate geoid height near the water level gauge using a GPS buoy is proposed. It is found that at a 95% confidence interval, the method is consistent with the National Geodetic Survey GEOID03 geoid model. The lake surface represented using a lake circulation model provided by the Great Lakes Forecasting Systems is also verified with kriging based on the data (1999 - 2001 from the water level gauge, and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter. Mean discrepancies of 2.7 and 7.2 cm are found with the data from the gauges around Lake Erie, and from the combination of the gauges and the altimeter, respectively. It reveals that the current dominant limitation of more accurate linking of water surface to shoreline is the insufficient knowledge of geoid in the current models. Further improvement is feasible through more accurate and higher resolution modeling of the lake geoid.

  1. Strength evolution law of cracked rock based on localized progressive damage model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Ping; LI Xi-bing; LI Ning

    2008-01-01

    In the light of the localized progressive damage model, the evolution law of cohesive and frictional strength with irreversible strains was determined. Then, the location and the extent of the excavation disturbed zone in one deep rock engineering were predicted by using the strength evolution law. The theoretical result is close to the result of in-situ test. The strength evolution law excels the elastic-perfectly plastic model and elasto-brittte plastic model in which the cohesive and frictional strength are mobilized simultaneously. The results obtained indicate that the essential failure mechanism of the cracked rock can be described by the cohesion weakening and friction strengthening evolution law.

  2. AGENTS OF CHANGE: MODELING BIOCULTURAL EVOLUTION IN UPPER PLEISTOCENE WESTERN EURASIA

    OpenAIRE

    C. Michael. Barton; JULIEN RIEL-SALVATORE

    2012-01-01

    The complex interactions between social learning and biological change are key to understanding the human species and its origins. Yet paleoanthropological models often focus only on the evolution of the human genome and physical characters, while behavior is treated as an epiphenomenon of biological evolution. We present the results of a series of experiments that use computational models, parametrized with new archaeological data, to simulate the complex dynamics of human biocultural evolut...

  3. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts: shoreline change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    The demands of increasing human population in the coastal zone create competition with coastal habitat preservation and with recreational and commercial uses of the coast and nearshore waters. As climate changes over the coming century, these problems facing coastal communities will likely worsen. Good management and policy decision-making require baseline information on the rates, trends, and scientific understanding of the processes of coastal change on a regional to national scale. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is engaged in a research project of national scope to measure, report, and interpret historical shoreline change along open-ocean coasts of the United States. One of the primary goals of this project is to understand shoreline change hazards using methods that are comparable from one area of the country to another and that will allow for future, repeatable analyses of shoreline movement, coastal erosion, and land loss.

  4. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... adjacent to a cliff coast. The barrier island system is characterized by cross-shore translation and by an alignment of the barrier alongshore alternating directions of barrier-spit progradation in a bidirectional wave field. The recurved spit adjacent to the cliff coast experienced shoreline rotation...... through proximal erosion and distal lateral accretion in a unidirectional wave climate. The multidecadal shoreline changes were coupled to a slope-based morphological coastal classification. All erosive shores occurred within a narrow range of onshore and offshore coastal slopes. The alongshore...

  5. Heavily Oiled Salt Marsh following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Ecological Comparisons of Shoreline Cleanup Treatments and Recovery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zengel, Scott; Bernik, Brittany M; Rutherford, Nicolle; Nixon, Zachary; Michel, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill affected hundreds of kilometers of coastal wetland shorelines, including salt marshes with persistent heavy oiling that required intensive shoreline "cleanup" treatment...

  6. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  7. Historical Shoreline for New Jersey (1971 to 1978): Vector Digital Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — New_Jersey_1971_78_Digitized_Shoreline.zip features a digitized historic shoreline for the New Jersey coastline (Point Pleasant, NJ to Longport, NJ) from 1971 to...

  8. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines...

  9. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  10. MarthasVineyard_intersects_LTwo.shp - Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 4.3 shoreline intersection points used to calculate long-term shoreline change statistics excluding the 1970-1979 and 1994 shorelines within the Martha's Vineyard coastal region including the Vineyard Sound-, Nantucket Sound- and Atlantic Ocean- facing coasts of Martha's Vineyard and Nomans Land

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  11. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (dates_meta.txt)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  12. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  13. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  14. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  15. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines...

  16. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated...

  17. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  18. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines...

  19. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  20. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  1. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  2. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  3. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines...

  4. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  5. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Petit Bois Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated...

  6. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (dates_meta.txt)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  7. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  8. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Ship Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  9. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  10. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  11. Historical Shoreline for New Jersey (1971 to 1978): Vector Digital Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — New_Jersey_1971_78_Digitized_Shoreline.zip features a digitized historic shoreline for the New Jersey coastline (Point Pleasant, NJ to Longport, NJ) from 1971 to...

  12. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Cat Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Combined Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  13. OuterCapeCod_intersects_LTwo.shp - Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 4.3 shoreline intersection points used to calculate long-term shoreline change statistics excluding the 1970's and 1994 shorelines within the Outer Cape Cod coastal region from Long Point in Provincetown to Monomoy Island

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  14. SouthShore_intersects_LTwo.shp - Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 4.3 shoreline intersection points used to calculate long-term shoreline change statistics excluding the 1970-1979 and 1994 shorelines within the South Shore coastal region from Hewitts Cove in Hingham to the Cape Cod Canal in Sandwich

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  15. CapeCodBay_intersects_LTwo.shp - Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 4.3 shoreline intersection points used to calculate long-term shoreline change statistics excluding the 1970-1979 and 1994 shorelines within the Cape Cod Bay coastal region from the Cape Cod Canal in Sandwich to Long Point in Provincetown

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Due to continued coastal population growth and increased threats of erosion, current data on trends and rates of shoreline movement are required to inform shoreline...

  16. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polygon: Combined Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Dauphin Island, Alabama (Polygon: Combined Dates) is a polygon shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  17. Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Shorelines Extracted from 1984-2015 Landsat Imagery: Horn Island, Mississippi (Polyline: Individual Dates) is a line shapefile representing shorelines generated from...

  18. Improving the thin-disk models of circumstellar disk evolution. The 2+1-dimensional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobyov, Eduard I.; Pavlyuchenkov, Yaroslav N.

    2017-09-01

    Context. Circumstellar disks of gas and dust are naturally formed from contracting pre-stellar molecular cores during the star formation process. To study various dynamical and chemical processes that take place in circumstellar disks prior to their dissipation and transition to debris disks, the appropriate numerical models capable of studying the long-term disk chemodynamical evolution are required. Aims: We improve the frequently used 2D hydrodynamical model for disk evolution in the thin-disk limit by employing a better calculation of the disk thermal balance and adding a reconstruction of the disk vertical structure. Together with the hydrodynamical processes, the thermal evolution is of great importance since it influences the strength of gravitational instability and the chemical evolution of the disk. Methods: We present a new 2+1-dimensional numerical hydrodynamics model of circumstellar disk evolution, where the thin-disk model is complemented with the procedure for calculating the vertical distributions of gas volume density and temperature in the disk. The reconstruction of the disk vertical structure is performed at every time step via the solution of the time-dependent radiative transfer equations coupled to the equation of the vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results: We perform a detailed comparison between circumstellar disks produced with our previous 2D model and with the improved 2+1D approach. The structure and evolution of resulting disks, including the differences in temperatures, densities, disk masses, and protostellar accretion rates, are discussed in detail. Conclusions: The new 2+1D model yields systematically colder disks, while the in-falling parental clouds are warmer. Both effects act to increase the strength of disk gravitational instability and, as a result, the number of gravitationally bound fragments that form in the disk via gravitational fragmentation as compared to the purely 2D thin-disk simulations with a simplified

  19. Modeling Dust Evolution in Galaxies with a Multiphase, Inhomogeneous ISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovska, Svitlana; Dobbs, Clare; Jenkins, Edward B.; Klessen, Ralf S.

    2016-11-01

    We develop a model of dust evolution in a multiphase, inhomogeneous interstellar medium (ISM) using hydrodynamical simulations of giant molecular clouds in a Milky Way-like spiral galaxy. We improve the treatment of dust growth by accretion in the ISM to investigate the role of the temperature-dependent sticking coefficient and ion-grain interactions. From detailed observational data on the gas-phase Si abundances [{{Si}}{gas}/{{H}}] measured in the local Galaxy, we derive a relation between the average [{{Si}}{gas}/{{H}}] and the local gas density n({{H}}) that we use as a critical constraint for the models. This relation requires a sticking coefficient that decreases with the gas temperature. The relation predicted by the models reproduces the slope of -0.5 for the observed relation in cold clouds, which is steeper than that for the warm medium and is explained by dust growth. We find that growth occurs in the cold medium for all adopted values of the minimum grain size a min from 1 to 5 nm. For the classical cutoff of {a}\\min =5 {nm}, the Coulomb repulsion results in slower accretion and higher [{{Si}}{gas}/{{H}}] than the observed values. For {a}\\min ≲ 3 {nm}, the Coulomb interactions enhance the growth rate, steepen the slope of the [{{Si}}{gas}/{{H}}]-n({{H}}) relation, and provide a better match to observations. The rates of dust re-formation in the ISM by far exceed the rates of dust production by stellar sources. After the initial 140 Myr, the cycle of matter in and out of dust reaches a steady state, in which the dust growth balances the destruction on a similar timescale of 350 Myr.

  20. Coupling Landform Evolution and Soil Pedogenesis - Initial Results From the SSSPAM5D Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willgoose, G. R.; Welivitiya, W. D. D. P.; Hancock, G. R.; Cohen, S.

    2015-12-01

    Evolution of soil on a dynamic landform is a crucial next step in landscape evolution modelling. Some attempts have been taken such as MILESD by Vanwalleghem et al. to develop a first model which is capable of simultaneously evolving both the soil profile and the landform. In previous work we have presented physically based models for soil pedogenesis, mARM and SSSPAM. In this study we present the results of coupling a landform evolution model with our SSSPAM5D soil pedogenesis model. In previous work the SSSPAM5D soil evolution model was used to identify trends of the soil profile evolution on a static landform. Two pedogenetic processes, namely (1) armouring due to erosion, and (2) physical and chemical weathering were used in those simulations to evolve the soil profile. By incorporating elevation changes (due to erosion and deposition) we have advanced the SSSPAM5D modelling framework into the realm of landscape evolution. Simulations have been run using elevation and soil grading data of the engineered landform (spoil heap) at the Ranger Uranium Mine, Northern Territory, Australia. The results obtained for the coupled landform-soil evolution simulations predict the erosion of high slope areas, development of rudimentary channel networks in the landform and deposition of sediments in lowland areas, and qualitatively consistent with landform evolution models on their own. Examination of the soil profile characteristics revealed that hill crests are weathering dominated and tend to develop a thick soil layer. The steeper hillslopes at the edge of the landform are erosion dominated with shallow soils while the foot slopes are deposition dominated with thick soil layers. The simulation results of our coupled landform and soil evolution model provide qualitatively correct and timely characterization of the soil evolution on a dynamic landscape. Finally we will compare the characteristics of erosion and deposition predicted by the coupled landform-soil SSSPAM