WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling shoreline evolution

  1. Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2012-01-01

    A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

  2. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    model has been developed which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines. The numerical model is based on a spectral wave model, a depth integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model. First the theoretical...... of the feature and under predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the shoreline model predicts undulations lengths which are longer than the observed undulations. Lastly the thesis considers field measurements of undulations of the bottom bathymetry along an otherwise straight...... length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a shoreline stability analysis based on the numerical model. The analysis shows that the length of the undulations in the linear regime depends on the incoming wave conditions and on the coastal profile. For larger waves...

  3. Modelling shoreline evolution in the vicinity of a groyne and a river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valsamidis, Antonios; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2017-01-01

    Analytical solutions to the equations governing shoreline evolution are well-known and have value both as pedagogical tools and for conceptual design. Nevertheless, solutions have been restricted to a fairly narrow class of conditions with limited applicability to real-life situations. We present a new analytical solution for a widely encountered situation where a groyne is constructed close to a river to control sediment movement. The solution, which employs Laplace transforms, has the advantage that a solution for time-varying conditions may be constructed from the solution for constant conditions by means of the Heaviside procedure. Solutions are presented for various combinations of wave conditions and sediment supply/removal by the river. An innovation introduced in this work is the capability to provide an analytical assessment of the accretion or erosion caused near the groyne due to its proximity to the river which may act either as a source or a sink of sediment material.

  4. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described...

  5. A numerical shoreline model for shorelines with large curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment...

  6. Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

    2015-04-01

    Coastal zones are fragile and dynamic environments where environmental, economic and social aspects are interconnected. While these areas are often highly urbanised, they are especially vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g. storms, floods, erosion, storm surges). Hence, high risk affects people and goods in several coastal zones throughout the world. The recent storms that hit the European coasts (Hercules, Christian and Stephanie, among others) showed the high vulnerability of these territories. Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) deals with the sustainable development of coastal zones by taking into account the different aspects that affect them, including risks adaptation and mitigation. Accurate mapping of shoreline position through time and models to predict shoreline evolution play a fundamental role for coastal zone risk management. In this context, spaceborne remote sensing is fundamental because it provides synoptic and multitemporal information that allow the extraction of shorelines' proxies. These are stable coastal features (e.g. the vegetation lines, the foredune toe, etc.) that can be mapped instead of the proper shoreline, which is an extremely dynamic boundary. The use of different proxies may provide different evolutionary patterns for the same study area; therefore it is important to assess which is the most suitable, given the environmental characteristics of a specific area. In Portugal, the coastal stretch between Ovar and Marinha Grande is one of the greatest national challenges in terms of integrated management of resources and risks. This area is characterised by intense erosive processes that largely exceed the shoreline's retreat predictions made in the first Coastal Zone Management Plan, developed in 2000. The aim of this work was to assess the accuracy of a new model of shoreline evolution implemented in 2013 in order to check its robustness for short-term predictions. The method exploited the potentialities of the Landsat archive

  7. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  8. UAV survey of a Thyrrenian micro-tidal beach for shoreline evolution update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Pugliano, Giovanni; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Mucerino, Luigi

    2015-04-01

    Coastal geomorphology requires increasingly accurate topographic information of the beach systems to perform reliable simulation of coastal erosion, flooding phenomena, and coastal vulnerability assessment. Among the range of terrestrial and aerial methods available to produce such a dataset, this study tests the utility of low-altitude aerial imageries collected by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The image-based approach was selected whilst searching for a rapid, inexpensive, and highly automated method, able to produce 3D information from unstructured aerial images. In particular, it was used to generate a high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) of the micro-tidal beach of Serapo - Gaeta (LT) in order to obtain recent update of erosional/accretional trends already established through historical shoreline evolution. A UAV exacopter (fig. 1a) was used, weighing about 2500g, carrying on board a GPS and multi-directional accelerometer to ensure a recovery of the beach features (fig. 1b) through a sweep with constant speed, direction and altitude. The on-board camera was a Canon 16M pixels, with fixed and constant focal takeoff in order to perform the 3D cloud points. Six adjacent strips were performed for the survey realization with pictures taken every second in sequence, in order to allow a minimum 80% overlap. A direct on site survey was also carried out with a DGPS for the placement of GPS markers and the geo-referencing of the final product (fig. 1c). Each flight with constant speed, direction and altitude recorded from 500 to 800 shots. The height of flight was dictated by the scale of the final report, an altitude of 100m was used for the beach survey. The topographic survey on the ground for the placement of the control points was performed with the Trimble R6 DGPS in RTK mode. The long-term shoreline evolution was obtained by a sixty-year historical shoreline time-series, through the analysis of a number of aerial photographs dating from 1954 to 2013. The

  9. Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline changes along the coast between sousse- Monastir (Eastearn of Tunisia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathallah, S.; Ben Amor, R.; Gueddari, M.

    2009-04-01

    Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline Changes along the coast between Sousse-Monastir (Eastern of Tunisia). Safa Fathallah*, Rim Ben Amor and Moncef Gueddari Unit of Research of Geochemistry and Environmental Geology. Faculty of Science of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, 2092. (*) Corresponding author: safa_fathallah@yahoo.fr The coast of Sousse-Monastir in eastern of Tunisia, has undergone great changes, due to natural and anthropic factors. Increasing human use, the construction of two ports and coastal urbanization (hotels and industries) has accelerated the erosion process. The coastal defense structures (breakwaters and enrockment), built to protect the most eroded zone are efficient, but eroded zones appeared in the southern part of breakwaters. Recent and historic aerial photography was used to estimate, observe, and analyze past shoreline and bathymetric positions and trends involving shore evolution for Sousse-Monastir coast. All of the photographs were calibrated and mosaicked by Arc Map Gis 9.1, the years used are 1925, 1962, 1988, 1996, and 2001 for shoreline change analysis and 1884 and 2001 for bathymetric changes. The analyze of this photographs show that the zone located at the south of breakwater are mostly eroded with high speed process (2m/year). Another zone appears as eroded at the south part of Hamdoun River, with 1,5m/year erosion speed . Keywords: Shoreline evolution, defense structures, Sousse-Monastir coast, Tunisia.

  10. Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuanita, Nita; Pratama, Roka; Husrin, Semeidi

    2015-04-01

    Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia Tulamben coast is located in Lombok Strait on the northeastern coast of Bali island, Indonesia, as part of Karang Asem district. Severe erosion along the coastline has long been occurred in Karang Asem area and threatening houses, religious buildings (Hindu temples), and a national heritage site. As one of most popular diving site in Bali Island, Tulamben attracted many local and international tourist since 1980. The main attraction of Tulamben diving site is the USAT Liberty ship that was shipwrecked in Tulamben beach in 1942, after attacked by Japanese torpedo in Lombok Strait. Currently about 150 diver visit Tulamben per day. Due to physical changes of coastal environmental such as coastal erosion, sliding, and scouring, the shipwreck is vulnerable. It had been slipped off the beach several times and is predicted would be moved to deeper offshore floor if it is not protected. Coastal erosion in Karang Asem district is occurred probably due to interaction between cross-shore and long-shore wave-generated current and river sand supply decreasing after sand mining activities. In this study, the effect of cross-shore and longshore transport to coastal erosion in Tulamben is analyzed by doing numerical model. Numerical simulation of shoreline changes is performed by using Beach Processes Module of CEDAS (Coastal Engineering Design and Analysis System) consists of SBEACH and GENESIS. The model domain is covered Karang Asem coastline about 60 km length and wave data is calculated from hourly wind data (10 years). Simulated shoreline is calibrated using shoreline data from 1972 to 2013. Using calibrated model, then the simulation is performed from 2003 - 2013. From the simulation it is determined that longshore current and longshore sediment contribute to coastal erosion in Tulamben. Based on model results, several alternatives of general layout and configuration of coastal protection structures is proposed

  11. Medium-term shoreline evolution of the mediterranean coast of Andalusia (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Vincenzo; Manno, Giorgio; Messina, Enrica; Anfuso, Giorgio; Suffo, Miguel

    2015-04-01

    Coastal environment is a dynamic system in which numerous natural processes are continuously actuating and interacting among them. As a result, geomorphologic, physical and biological characteristics of coastal environments are constantly changing. Such dynamic balance is nowadays seriously threatened by the strong and increasing anthropic pressure that favors erosion processes, and the associated loss of environmental, ecologic and economic aspects. Sandy beaches are the most vulnerable environments in coastal areas. The aim of this work was to reconstruct the historical evolution of the Mediterranean coastline of Andalusia, Spain. The investigated area is about 500 km in length and includes the provinces of Cadiz, Malaga, Granada and Almeria. It is essentially composed by cliffed sectors with sand and gravel pocket beaches constituting independent morphological cells of different dimensions. This study was based on the analysis of aerial photos and satellite images covering a period of 55 years, between 1956 and 2011. Aerial photos were scanned and geo-referenced in order to solve scale and distortion problems. The shoreline was considered and mapped through the identification of the wet / dry sand limit which coincides with the line of maximum run-up; this indicator - representing the shoreline at the moment of the photo - is the most easily identifiable and representative one in microtidal coastal environments. Since shoreline position is linked to beach profile characteristics and to waves, tide and wind conditions at the moment of the photo, such parameters were taken into account in the calculation of shoreline position and changes. Specifically, retreat/accretion changes were reconstructed applying the DSAS method (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) proposed by the US Geological Survey. Significant beach accretion was observed at Playa La Mamola (Granada), with +1 m/y, because the construction of five breakwaters, and at Playa El Cantal (Almeria) and close

  12. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  13. Development of a practical methodology for integrating shoreline oil-holding capacity into modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, D.; French-McCay, D.; Rowe, J.; Michel, J.; Boufadel, M.; Li, H.

    2008-01-01

    The factors that influence the behaviour of oil in the aftermath of an oil spill on water include oil type and characteristics; oil thickness on the shoreline; time until shoreline impact; timing with regards to tides; weathering during and after the spill; and nearshore wave energy. The oil behaviour also depends on the shoreline characteristics, particularly porosity and permeability. The interactions of spilled oil with sediments on beaches must be well understood in order to model the oil spill trajectory, fate and risk. The movement of oil can be most accurately simulated if the algorithm incorporates an estimate of shoreline oil retention. This paper presented a literature review of relevant shoreline oiling studies and considered the relevance of study findings for inclusion in modelling. Survey data from a detailed shoreline cleanup assessment team (SCAT) were analyzed for patterns in oil penetration and oil-holding capacity by shoreline sediment type and oil type for potential use in modelling algorithms. A theoretical beach hydraulics model was then developed for use in a stochastic spill model. Gaps in information were identified, including the manner in which wave action and other environmental variables have an impact on the dynamic processes involved in shoreline oiling. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to estimate the amount of oil held by a shoreline upon impact to allow a trajectory model to more accurately project the total spread of oil. 27 refs., 13 tabs., 3 figs

  14. Comparing Fuzzy Sets and Random Sets to Model the Uncertainty of Fuzzy Shorelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewi, Ratna Sari; Bijker, Wietske; Stein, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses uncertainty modelling of shorelines by comparing fuzzy sets and random sets. Both methods quantify extensional uncertainty of shorelines extracted from remote sensing images. Two datasets were tested: pan-sharpened Pleiades with four bands (Pleiades) and pan-sharpened Pleiades

  15. Performance of a process-based hydrodynamic model in predicting shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

    2012-12-01

    Shoreline change is controlled by a complex combination of processes that include waves, currents, sediment characteristics and availability, geologic framework, human interventions, and sea level rise. A comprehensive data set of shoreline position (14 shorelines between 1978-2002) along the continuous and relatively non-interrupted North Carolina Coast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras (65 km) reveals a spatial pattern of alternating erosion and accretion, with an erosional average shoreline change rate of -1.6 m/yr and up to -8 m/yr in some locations. This data set gives a unique opportunity to study long-term shoreline change in an area hit by frequent storm events while relatively uninfluenced by human interventions and the effects of tidal inlets. Accurate predictions of long-term shoreline change may require a model that accurately resolves surf zone processes and sediment transport patterns. Conventional methods for predicting shoreline change such as one-line models and regression of shoreline positions have been designed for computational efficiency. These methods, however, not only have several underlying restrictions (validity for small angle of wave approach, assuming bottom contours and shoreline to be parallel, depth of closure, etc.) but also their empirical estimates of sediment transport rates in the surf zone have been shown to vary greatly from the calculations of process-based hydrodynamic models. We focus on hind-casting long-term shoreline change using components of the process-based, three-dimensional coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST). COAWST is forced with historical predictions of atmospheric and oceanographic data from public-domain global models. Through a method of coupled concurrent grid-refinement approach in COAWST, the finest grid with resolution of O(10 m) that covers the surf zone along the section of interest is forced at its spatial boundaries with waves and currents computed on the grids

  16. Hybrid morphological modelling of shoreline response to a detached breakwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils; Deigaard, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    We present a new type of model for calculating morphological changes induced by the presence of breakwaters. The model combines a process based area model, used to calculate the sediment transport field in the two horizontal dimensions, with a simplified morphological updating scheme where the ev...... in more detail the evolving morphology behind coastal breakwaters. It is demonstrated how the model is able to calculate the evolution of either salient or tombolo planforms, and furthermore it is shown that the results are in reasonable agreement with existing rules....

  17. Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, K.L.; Barnard, P.L.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ~54 million m3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore

  18. Monitoring and modeling shoreline response due to shoreface nourishment on a high-energy coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, P. L.; Erikson, Li H.; Hansen, J. E.

    2009-01-01

    Shoreface nourishment can be an efficient technique to feed sediment into the littoral zone without the order of magnitude cost increase incurred by directly nourishing the beach. An erosion hot spot at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, USA, threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location, a new beneficial reuse plan was implemented in May 2005 for the sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. From 2005 to 2007, approximately 230,000 m of sand was placed annually at depths between 9 and 14 m, in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves could potentially feed sediment onto the section of beach experiencing critical erosion. The evolution of the disposal mound and adjacent beach were monitored with 12 multibeam bathymetric surveys, and over 40 high-resolution beach topographic surveys. In addition, sediment transport processes were investigated using sediment grab samples, acoustic Doppler profilers, and two separate models: a cross-shore profile model (UNIBEST-TC) and a coastal area model (Delft3D). The results of the monitoring and modeling demonstrate that the disposal mound may be effective in dissipating wave energy striking this vulnerable stretch of coast with negligible shadowing effects, but a positive shoreline response can only be achieved by placing the sediment in water depths less than 5 m. 

  19. Observations of Interannual Dune Morphological Evolution With Comparisons to Shoreline Change Along the Columbia River Littoral Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doermann, L.; Kaminsky, G. M.; Ruggiero, P.

    2006-12-01

    Beach topographic data have been collected along the 160 km-long Columbia River Littoral Cell in southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, USA as part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study and a NANOOS pilot project. The monitoring program includes the collection of cross-shore beach profiles at 49 sites for each of the 34 seasons since 1997 (with few exceptions), enabling the investigation of the seasonal to interannual morphological variability of this high-energy coast. We focus here on the dunes backing the beaches, aiming to quantitatively describe the wide variety of characteristics they exhibit, as well as to relate dune evolution to shoreline change. To analyze the large volume of high-quality data, we use automated algorithms and systematic processes to identify the location of the dune toe, crest, and face, and calculate a volume (where enough data are available) and beach width for each survey. We define the position of the dune face as the elevation half-way between the average dune toe and average dune crest elevations at each profile location, and beach width as the horizontal distance between the 2-m contour (~MSL) and the dune toe. Much like shoreline proxies lower on the beach profile, (e.g., the 3-m contour), the location of the dune toe shows large seasonal variability with onshore deposition of sand in summer months and offshore sand transport in the winter. However, the location of the dune face and the elevation of the dune crest are much less variable and are useful in describing the evolution of the dune/beach system in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, over interannual time scales. On beaches with the highest shoreline change rates in the study area, the dune face follows the progradational trend of the shoreline with the dune face prograding at approximately 25-50% of the rate of the shoreline. Along many of these beaches that experienced severe erosion during the El Niño of 1997/98, the dune face

  20. Physical modeling of shoreline bioremediation: Continuous flow mesoscale basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.; Ramstad, S.; Faksness, L.G.; Bech, C.; Johansen, B.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and use of continuous flow basin beach models in the study of bioremediation processes, and gives some results from an experiment designed to study the effects of different strategies for adding fertilizers. The continuous flow experimental basin system simulates an open system with natural tidal variation, wave action, and continuous supply and exchange of seawater. Biodegradation and bioremediation processes can thus be tested close to natural conditions. Results obtained using the models show a significant enhancement of biodegradation of oil in a sediment treated with an organic nutrient source, increased nutrient level in the interstitial water, and sediment microbial activity. These physical models gives biologically significant results, and can be used to simulate biodegradation and bioremediation in natural systems

  1. Modeling shoreline bioremediation: Continuous flow and seawater exchange columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramstad, S.; Sveum, P.; Bech, C.; Faksness, L.G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and use of the columns in the study of bioremediation processes, and gives some results from an experiment designed to study the effects of different additives (fish meal, stick water, and Max Bac) on biodegradation of crude oil. There is significant difference in oil degradation(nC 17 /pristane ratio) between the column with additives and those without. Open system models in this type of open column give valuable data o how the chemical and biological parameters, including oil degradation, are affected by the additives, and simultaneously by the dilutive effect of seawater washing through the sediment, and for optimizing formulations. The system is designed with a large number of units and provides a good first approximation for mesocosm studies and field experiments, thus reducing the need for large numbers of such resource-demanding experiments

  2. Observations and modelling of shoreline and multiple sandbar behaviour on a high-energy meso-tidal beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Splinter, Kristen D.; Gonzalez, Maria V. G.; Oltman-Shay, Joan; Rutten, Jantien; Holman, Robert

    2018-05-01

    This contribution describes 10 years of observed sandbar and shoreline cross-shore position variability at a meso-tidal, high energy, multiple sandbar beach. To examine relationships between the temporal variability in shoreline/sandbar position with offshore wave forcing, a simple equilibrium model is applied to these data. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the equilibrium model is skilled at predicting the alongshore-averaged, time-varying position of the shoreline (R = 0.82) and the outer sandbar position (R = 0.75), suggesting that these end members of the nearshore sediment system are most strongly influenced by offshore wave forcing in a predictable, equilibrium-forced manner. The middle and inner bars are hypothesized to act as sediment transport pathways between the shoreline and the outer bar. Prediction of these more transient features by an equilibrium model was less skilful. Model coefficients reveal that these two end members (outer bar and shoreline) in the sediment system act in opposite directions to changes in the annual offshore wave forcing. During high wave events, sediment is removed from the shoreline and deposited in the nearshore sediment system with simultaneous landward retreat of the shoreline and offshore migration of the outer sandbar. While both end member features have cycles at annual and inter-annual scales, their respective equilibrium response factor differs by almost a factor of 10, with the shoreline responding around an inter-annual mean (ϕ = 1000 days) and the outer bar responding around a seasonal mean (ϕ = 170 days). The model accurately predicts shoreline response to both mild (e.g. 2004/05, 2008/09) and extreme (e.g. 2005/06, 2009/10) winter storms, as well as their summer recovery. The more mobile and dynamic outer sandbar is well-modelled during typical winters. Summer onshore sandbar migration of the outer bar in 2005 and 2006 is under-predicted as the system transitioned between a triple (winter) and

  3. Deepwater Horizon MC252 shoreline data from the Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) containing shoreline exposure and data related to the shoreline exposure model, coastal wetland vegetation sites and other datasets collected between 2010-01-01 to 2015-01-01 for the DWH response in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NCEI Accession 0163814)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Archival Information Package (AIP) contains Environmental Resource Management Application (ERMA) GIS layers including shoreline exposure model for beach and...

  4. Modeling Water-Surface Elevations and Virtual Shorelines for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magirl, Christopher S.; Breedlove, Michael J.; Webb, Robert H.; Griffiths, Peter G.

    2008-01-01

    Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from Lees Ferry to Diamond Creek. Solving one-dimensional equations of energy and continuity, the model predicts stage for a known steady-state discharge at specific locations, or cross sections, along the river corridor. This model uses 2,680 cross sections built with high-resolution digital topography of ground locations away from the river flowing at a discharge of 227 m3/s; synthetic bathymetry was created for topography submerged below the 227 m3/s water surface. The synthetic bathymetry was created by adjusting the water depth at each cross section up or down until the model?s predicted water-surface elevation closely matched a known water surface. This approach is unorthodox and offers a technique to construct one-dimensional hydraulic models of bedrock-controlled rivers where bathymetric data have not been collected. An analysis of this modeling approach shows that while effective in enabling a useful model, the synthetic bathymetry can differ from the actual bathymetry. The known water-surface profile was measured using elevation data collected in 2000 and 2002, and the model can simulate discharges up to 5,900 m3/s. In addition to the hydraulic model, GIS-based techniques were used to estimate virtual shorelines and construct inundation maps. The error of the hydraulic model in predicting stage is within 0.4 m for discharges less than 1,300 m3/s. Between 1,300-2,500 m3/s, the model accuracy is about 1.0 m, and for discharges between 2,500-5,900 m3/s, the model accuracy is on the order of 1.5 m. In the absence of large floods on the flow-regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon, the new hydraulic model and the accompanying inundation maps are a useful resource for researchers interested in water depths, shorelines, and stage-discharge curves for flows within the river corridor with 2002 topographic

  5. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  6. Elastic source model of the North Mono eruption (1325-1368 A.D.) based on shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Wil; Bursik, Marcus; Renshaw, Carl

    2010-12-01

    Topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) captures the permanent deformation of a prominent highstand of Mono Lake, California USA. Deformation of the Dechambeau Ranch highstand shoreline was measured using the elevation of the beach berm—shoreline bluff break-in-slope. Point source models and a boundary element dike model were used to approximate the source of deformation underneath the northern end of the Mono Craters. The point source model could not adequately explain the observed deformation. The dike model yielded the best results for a NW trending dike dipping 60° NE and inflated to widths greater than 60 m. The results suggest that the geometry of the source is more complex than a simple vertical dike and that the deformation is better explained with a dipping dike following a normal fault, or an elongated cryptodome.

  7. Investigating Coastal Processes Responsible for Large-Scale Shoreline Responses to Human Shoreline Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slott, J. M.; Murray, A. B.; Ashton, A. D.

    2006-12-01

    Human shoreline stabilization practices, such as beach nourishment (i.e. placing sand on an eroding beach), have become more prevalent as erosion threatens coastal communities. On sandy shorelines, recent experiments with a numerical model of shoreline change (Slott, et al., in press) indicate that moderate shifts in storminess patterns, one possible outcome of global warming, may accelerate the rate at which shorelines erode or accrete, by altering the angular distribution of approaching waves (the `wave climate'). Accelerated erosion would undoubtedly place greater demands on stabilization. Scientists and coastal engineers have typically only considered the site-specific consequences of shoreline stabilization; here we explore the coastal processes responsible for large-scale (10's kms) and long-term (decades) effects using a numerical model developed by Ashton, et al. (2001). In this numerical model, waves breaking at oblique angles drive a flux of sediment along the shoreline, where gradients in this flux can shape the coastline into surprisingly complex forms (e.g. cuspate-capes found on the Carolina coast). Wave "shadowing" plays a major role in shoreline evolution, whereby coastline features may block incoming waves from reaching distant parts. In this work, we include beach nourishment in the Ashton, et al. (2001) model. Using a cuspate-cape shoreline as our initial model condition, we conducted pairs of experiments and varied the wave-climate forcing across each pair, each representing different storminess scenarios. Here we report on one scenario featuring increased extra-tropical storm influence. For each experiment-pair we ran a control experiment with no shoreline stabilization and a second where a beach nourishment project stabilized a cape tip. By comparing the results of these two parallel runs, we isolate the tendency of the shoreline to migrate landward or seaward along the domain due solely to beach nourishment. Significant effects from beach

  8. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    investigated by satellite images, physical model tests, and one-dimensional numerical models. The current study uses a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical beach evolution model, developed based on existing methodologies. This model is mainly composed of four main submodels: a phase-averaged spectral wave......This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...... transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  9. Modeling shoreface profile evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stive, M.J.F.; De Vriend, H.J.

    1995-01-01

    Current knowledge of hydro-, sediment and morpho-dynamics in the shoreface environment is insufficient to undertake shoreface-profile evolution modelling on the basis of first physical principles. We propose a simple, panel-type model to map observed behaviour. The internal dynamics are determined

  10. Modelling shoreface profile evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stive, Marcel J.F.; de Vriend, Huib J.

    1995-01-01

    Current knowledge of hydro-, sediment and morpho-dynamics in the shoreface environment is insufficient to undertake shoreface-profile evolution modelling on the basis of first physical principles. We propose a simple, panel-type model to map observed behaviour. The internal dynamics are determined

  11. Understanding Long-term, Large-scale Shoreline Change and the Sediment Budget on Fire Island, NY, using a 3D hydrodynamics-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, J. H.; Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; Schwab, W. C.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.

    2016-02-01

    The processes responsible for long-term (decadal) shoreline change and the related imbalance in the sediment budget on Fire Island, a 50 km long barrier island on the south coast of Long Island, NY, has been the subject of debate. The estimated net rate of sediment leaving the barrier at the west end of the island is approximately double the estimated net rate of sediment entering in the east, but the island-wide average sediment volume change associated with shoreline change is near zero and cannot account for this deficit. A long-held hypothesis is that onshore sediment flux from the inner continental shelf within the western half of the island is responsible for balancing the sediment budget. To investigate this possibility, we use a nested, 3-D, hydrodynamics-based modeling system (COAWST) to simulate the island-wide alongshore and cross-shore transport, in combination with shoreline change observations. The modeled, net alongshore transport gradients in the nearshore predict that the central part of Fire Island should be erosional, yet shoreline change observations show this area to be accretionary. We compare the model-predicted alongshore transport gradients with the flux gradients that would be required to generate the observed shoreline change, to give the pattern of sediment volume gains or losses that cannot be explained by the modeled alongshore transport gradients. Results show that the western 30 km of coast requires an input of sediment, supporting the hypothesis of onshore flux in this area. The modeled cross-shore flux of sediment between the shoreface and inner shelf is consistent these results, with onshore-directed bottom currents creating an environment more conducive to onshore sediment flux in the western 30 km of the island compared to the eastern 20 km. We conclude that the cross-shore flux of sediment can explain the shoreline change observations, and is an integral component of Fire Island's sediment budget.

  12. Evolution of Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antero, Michelle C.; Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The ERP industry has undergone dramatic changes over the past decades due to changing market demands, thereby creating new challenges and opportunities, which have to be managed by ERP vendors. This paper inquires into the necessary evolution of business models in a technology-intensive industry (e...

  13. Identification and visualisation of possible ancient ocean shoreline on Mars using submeter-resolution Digital Terrain Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Świąder, Andrzej

    2014-12-01

    Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) produced from stereoscopic, submeter-resolution High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) imagery provide a solid basis for all morphometric analyses of the surface of Mars. In view of the fact that a more effective use of DTMs is hindered by complicated and time-consuming manual handling, the automated process provided by specialists of the Ames Intelligent Robotics Group (NASA), Ames Stereo Pipeline, constitutes a good alternative. Four DTMs, covering the global dichotomy boundary between the southern highlands and northern lowlands along the line of the presumable Arabia shoreline, were produced and analysed. One of them included forms that are likely to be indicative of an oceanic basin that extended across the lowland northern hemisphere of Mars in the geological past. The high resolution DTMs obtained were used in the process of landscape visualisation.

  14. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  15. Shoreline Erosion and Slope Failure Detection over Southwest Lakeshore Michigan using Temporal Radar and Digital Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sataer, G.; Sultan, M.; Yellich, J. A.; Becker, R.; Emil, M. K.; Palaseanu, M.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century, significant losses of residential, commercial and governmental property were reported along the shores of the Great Lakes region due to one or more of the following factors: high lake levels, wave actions, groundwater discharge. A collaborative effort (Western Michigan University, University of Toledo, Michigan Geological Survey [MGS], United States Geological Survey [USGS], National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) is underway to examine the temporal topographic variations along the shoreline and the adjacent bluff extending from the City of South Haven in the south to the City of Saugatuck in the north within the Allegan County. Our objectives include two main tasks: (1) identification of the timing of, and the areas, witnessing slope failure and shoreline erosion, and (2) investigating the factors causing the observed failures and erosion. This is being accomplished over the study area by: (1) detecting and measuring slope subsidence rates (velocities along line of site) and failures using radar interferometric persistent scatter (PS) techniques applied to ESA's European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, ERS-1 and -2 (spatial resolution: 25 m) that were acquired in 1995 to 2007, (2) extracting temporal high resolution (20 cm) digital elevation models (DEM) for the study area from temporal imagery acquired by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and applying change detection techniques to the extracted DEMs, (3) detecting change in elevation and slope profiles extracted from two LIDAR Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) DEMs (spatial resolution: 0.5m), acquired on 2008 and 2012, and (4) spatial and temporal correlation of the detected changes in elevation with relevant data sets (e.g., lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels) in search of causal effects.

  16. Archaeological Site Vulnerability Modelling: The Influence of High Impact Storm Events on Models of Shoreline Erosion in the Western Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Rourke Michael J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the Inuvialuit archaeological record is situated along shorelines of the western Canadian Arctic. These coastal sites are at substantial risk of damage due to a number of geomorphological processes at work in the region. The identification of threatened heritage remains is critical in the Mackenzie Delta, where landscape changes are taking place at an increasingly rapid pace. This paper outlines some preliminary observations from a research program directed toward identifying vulnerable archaeological remains within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Coastal erosion rates have been calculated for over 280 km of the Kugmallit Bay shoreline, extending along the eastern extent of Richards Island and neighbouring areas of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Helicopter surveys conducted during the 2014 field season confirmed that areas exposed to heavy erosive forces in the past continue to erode at alarming rates. Some of the calculated rates, however, have proven far too conservative. An extreme period of erosion at Toker Point in the autumn of 2013 has yielded a prime example of how increasingly volatile weather patterns can influence shoreline erosion models. It has also provided a case with which to demonstrate the value of using more recent, shorter time-interval imagery in assessing impacts to cultural landscapes.

  17. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  18. Numerical prediction of shoreline adjacent to breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mahadevan, R.; Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

    Existing mathematical models for prediction of shoreline changes in the vicinity of a breakwater were reviewed The analytical and numerical results obtained from these models have been compared Under the numerical approach, two different implicit...

  19. Sand spit and shoreline dynamics near Terekhol river mouth, Goa, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rajasekaran, C.; Jayakumar, S.; Gowthaman, R.; Jishad, M.; Yadhunath, E.M.; Pednekar, P.S.

    Evolution of shoreline and sand spit at the mouth of the Terekhol River, near Keri beach, located in the Indian state of Goa has been investigated From the analysis of the data collected, the shoreline oscillation (accretion & erosion) is seasonal...

  20. Shoreline Evolution and Coastal Resiliency at Two Military Installations: Investigating the Potential for and Impacts of Loss of Protecting Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    most of which is available for transport onshore during calmer conditions. The geomorphic model demonstrates the importance of overwash in...Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to...Sediment Transport ……………………………………………………………………13 4.5 OSL Dating of Dunes…………………………………………………………………15 4.6 Storm Data Generation and Storm Impact Assessment

  1. Shoreline change due to coastal structures of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K. S.; Lee, T. S.; Kim, Y. I.

    2001-01-01

    Characteristics of shoreline change at the coastal area near power plant were analyzed. For a nuclear power plant located in the east coast of Korean peninsula, remote-sensing data, i.e.airborne images and satellite images are acquired and shoreline data were extracted. Recession and davance of shoreline due to coastal structures of powder plant and land reclamation was showed. 1-line numerical shoreline change model was established for simulating the response of shoreline to construction of coastal structures. The model uses curvilinear coordinates that follow the shoreline and is capable of handling the formation of tombolos as well as the growth of salients in the vicinity of coastal structures. The model predicted significant erosion of beach in case breakwaters were extended. Offshore breakwaters were suggested as a countermeasure to shoreline change

  2. Cuspate Shoreline Morphology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McWilliams, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    Large beach cusps with wavelengths O(200m), sometimes termed mega-cusps, were measured along 18km of the Southern Monterey Bay coastline from October 2004 to April 2005 to investigate the cuspate shoreline response to rip current systems...

  3. Modelling the fate of marine debris along a complex shoreline: Lessons from the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchell, K.; Grech, A.; Schlaefer, J.; Andutta, F. P.; Lambrechts, J.; Wolanski, E.; Hamann, M.

    2015-12-01

    The accumulation of floating anthropogenic debris in marine and coastal areas has environmental, economic, aesthetic, and human health impacts. Until now, modelling the transport of such debris has largely been restricted to the large-scales of open seas. We used oceanographic modelling to identify potential sites of debris accumulation along a rugged coastline with headlands, islands, rocky coasts and beaches. Our study site was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area that has an emerging problem with debris accumulation. We found that the classical techniques of modelling the transport of floating debris models are only moderately successful due to a number of unknowns or assumptions, such as the value of the wind drift coefficient, the variability of the oceanic forcing and of the wind, the resuspension of some floating debris by waves, and the poorly known relative contribution of floating debris from urban rivers and commercial and recreational shipping. Nevertheless the model was successful in reproducing a number of observations such as the existence of hot spots of accumulation. The orientation of beaches to the prevailing wind direction affected the accumulation rate of debris. The wind drift coefficient and the exact timing of the release of the debris at sea affected little the movement of debris originating from rivers but it affected measurably that of debris originating from ships. It was thus possible to produce local hotspot maps for floating debris, especially those originating from rivers. Such modelling can be used to inform local management decisions, and it also identifies likely priority research areas to more reliably predict the trajectory and landing points of floating debris.

  4. Hydrodynamic Modeling for Channel and Shoreline Stabilization at Rhodes Point, Smith Island, MD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    γβ), and 1,−sξ is the Iribarren parameter based on the first negative moment wave period: , , tan s s m φξ H L   1 1 0 (3-17) with ,, m m...capabilities of CMS-Wave: A coastal wave model for inlets and navigation projects. In Proceedings, Symposium to Honor Dr. Nicholas Kraus. Journal of Coastal

  5. Investigating Nonlinear Shoreline Multiperiod Change from Orthophoto Map Information by Using a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tienfuan Kerh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme weather and overdevelopment may cause some coastal areas to exhibit erosion problems, which in turn may contribute to creating disasters of varying scale, particularly in regions comprising islands. This study used aerial survey information from three periods (1990, 2001, and 2010 and used graphical software to establish the spatial data of six beaches surrounding the island of Taiwan. An overlaying technique was then implemented to compare the sandy area of each beach in the aforementioned study periods. In addition, an artificial neural network model was developed based on available digitised coordinates for predicting coastline variation for 2015 and 2020. An onsite investigation was performed using a global positioning system for comparing the beaches. The results revealed that two beaches from this study may have experienced significant changes in total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method and the result of this study may provide a valuable reference in follow-up research and applications.

  6. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-12-01

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial sediments and

  7. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  8. TMDs: Evolution, modeling, precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Alesio Umberto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The factorization theorem for qT spectra in Drell-Yan processes, boson production and semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering allows for the determination of the non-perturbative parts of transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions. Here we discuss the fit of Drell-Yan and Z-production data using the transverse momentum dependent formalism and the resummation of the evolution kernel. We find a good theoretical stability of the results and a final χ2/points ≲ 1. We show how the fixing of the non-perturbative pieces of the evolution can be used to make predictions at present and future colliders.

  9. Multidecadal shoreline changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2014-01-01

    Multidecadal shoreline changes along ca. 7000 km coastline around Denmark were computed for the time interval between 1862 AD and 2005 AD and were connected with a geomorphological coastal classification. The shoreline data set was based on shoreline positions from historical and modern topograph...... shoreline changes around Denmark, the mapping can contribute to enhanced adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to increased risks of erosion and flooding under a changing climate....

  10. Landscape Evolution Modelling-LAPSUS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baartman, J. E. M.; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Schoorl, J. M.; Claessens, L.; Viveen, W.; Gorp, W. van; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-07-01

    Landscape evolution modelling can make the consequences of landscape evolution hypotheses explicit and theoretically allows for their falsification and improvement. ideally, landscape evolution models (LEMs) combine the results of all relevant landscape forming processes into an ever-adapting digital landscape (e.g. DEM). These processes may act on different spatial and temporal scales. LAPSUS is such a LEM. Processes that have in different studies been included in LAPSUS are water erosion and deposition, landslide activity, creep, solidification, weathering, tectonics and tillage. Process descriptions are as simple and generic as possible, ensuring wide applicability. (Author) 25 refs.

  11. Landscape Evolution Modelling-LAPSUS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baartman, J. E. M.; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Schoorl, J. M.; Claessens, L.; Viveen, W.; Gorp, W. van; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-01-01

    Landscape evolution modelling can make the consequences of landscape evolution hypotheses explicit and theoretically allows for their falsification and improvement. ideally, landscape evolution models (LEMs) combine the results of all relevant landscape forming processes into an ever-adapting digital landscape (e.g. DEM). These processes may act on different spatial and temporal scales. LAPSUS is such a LEM. Processes that have in different studies been included in LAPSUS are water erosion and deposition, landslide activity, creep, solidification, weathering, tectonics and tillage. Process descriptions are as simple and generic as possible, ensuring wide applicability. (Author) 25 refs.

  12. Shoreline changes in and around the Thubon River mouth, Central Vietnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mau, L.D.; Nayak, G.N.; SanilKumar, V.

    Application of GENESIS model (GENEralized model for Simulating Shoreline change) for studying the shoreline change in and around the Thubon River Mouth, Central Vietnam is presented in this paper The input parameters used are the near shore wave...

  13. Modeling Protein Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Richard; Pollock, David

    The study of biology is fundamentally different from many other scientific pursuits, such as geology or astrophysics. This difference stems from the ubiquitous questions that arise about function and purpose. These are questions concerning why biological objects operate the way they do: what is the function of a polymerase? What is the role of the immune system? No one, aside from the most dedicated anthropist or interventionist theist, would attempt to determine the purpose of the earth's mantle or the function of a binary star. Among the sciences, it is only biology in which the details of what an object does can be said to be part of the reason for its existence. This is because the process of evolution is capable of improving an object to better carry out a function; that is, it adapts an object within the constraints of mechanics and history (i.e., what has come before). Thus, the ultimate basis of these biological questions is the process of evolution; generally, the function of an enzyme, cell type, organ, system, or trait is the thing that it does that contributes to the fitness (i.e., reproductive success) of the organism of which it is a part or characteristic. Our investigations cannot escape the simple fact that all things in biology (including ourselves) are, ultimately, the result of an evolutionary process.

  14. Modelling Geomorphic Systems: Landscape Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Valters, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) present the geomorphologist with a means of investigating how landscapes evolve in response to external forcings, such as climate and tectonics, as well as internal process laws. LEMs typically incorporate a range of different geomorphic transport laws integrated in a way that simulates the evolution of a 3D terrain surface forward through time. The strengths of LEMs as research tools lie in their ability to rapidly test many different hypotheses of landscape...

  15. Modelling microstructural evolution under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tikare, V.

    2015-01-01

    Microstructural evolution of materials under irradiation is characterised by some unique features that are not typically present in other application environments. While much understanding has been achieved by experimental studies, the ability to model this microstructural evolution for complex materials states and environmental conditions not only enhances understanding, it also enables prediction of materials behaviour under conditions that are difficult to duplicate experimentally. Furthermore, reliable models enable designing materials for improved engineering performance for their respective applications. Thus, development and application of mesoscale microstructural model are important for advancing nuclear materials technologies. In this chapter, the application of the Potts model to nuclear materials will be reviewed and demonstrated, as an example of microstructural evolution processes. (author)

  16. Towards an alternative evolution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Waesberghe, H

    1982-01-01

    Lamarck and Darwin agreed on the inconstancy of species and on the exclusive gradualism of evolution (nature does not jump). Darwinism, revived as neo-Darwinism, was almost generally accepted from about 1930 till 1960. In the sixties the evolutionary importance of selection has been called in question by the neutralists. The traditional conception of the gene is disarranged by recent molecular-biological findings. Owing to the increasing confusion about the concept of genotype, this concept is reconsidered. The idea of the genotype as a cluster of genes is replaced by a cybernetical interpretation of the genotype. As nature does jump, exclusive gradualism is dismissed. Saltatory evolution is a natural phenomenon, provided by a sudden collapse of the thresholds which resist against evolution. The fossil record and the taxonomic system call for a macromutational interpretation. As Lamarck and Darwin overlooked the resistance of evolutionary thresholds, an alternative evolution model is needed, the first to be constructed on a palaeontological and taxonomic basis.

  17. CMS computing model evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandi, C; Bonacorsi, D; Colling, D; Fisk, I; Girone, M

    2014-01-01

    The CMS Computing Model was developed and documented in 2004. Since then the model has evolved to be more flexible and to take advantage of new techniques, but many of the original concepts remain and are in active use. In this presentation we will discuss the changes planned for the restart of the LHC program in 2015. We will discuss the changes planning in the use and definition of the computing tiers that were defined with the MONARC project. We will present how we intend to use new services and infrastructure to provide more efficient and transparent access to the data. We will discuss the computing plans to make better use of the computing capacity by scheduling more of the processor nodes, making better use of the disk storage, and more intelligent use of the networking.

  18. Overview of shoreline cleaning agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Chemical cleaning agents may be used to promote release of stranded oil from shorelines for reasons including biological sensitivity of indigenous fauna and flora to the oil, amenity considerations of the shoreline, or concern about refloating of the oil and subsequent stranding on adjacent shorelines. While use of chemical cleaning agents may be appropriate under proper toxic responses in circumstances, certain limitations should be recognized. The potential for toxic responses in indigenous fauna and flora to the cleaning agents must be considered. Enhanced penetration of oil into permeable shorelines following treatment with chemical cleaning agents also is not desirable. However, if conditions related to toxicity and substrate permeability are determined to be acceptable, the use of chemical cleaning agents for treatment of stranded oil can be considered. Chemical agents for cleaning oiled shorelines can be grouped into three categories: (1) non-surfactant-based solvents, (2) chemical dispersants, and (3) formulations especially designed to release stranded oil from shoreline substrates (i.e., shoreline-cleaning-agents). Depending on the specific circumstances present on an oiled shoreline, it is generally desirable that chemical agents used for cleaning will release oil from shoreline substrate(s) to surface waters. Recovery of the oil can then be accomplished by mechanical procedures such as booming and skimming operations

  19. Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

  20. Numerical Modeling of Large-Scale Rocky Coastline Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limber, P.; Murray, A. B.; Littlewood, R.; Valvo, L.

    2008-12-01

    Seventy-five percent of the world's ocean coastline is rocky. On large scales (i.e. greater than a kilometer), many intertwined processes drive rocky coastline evolution, including coastal erosion and sediment transport, tectonics, antecedent topography, and variations in sea cliff lithology. In areas such as California, an additional aspect of rocky coastline evolution involves submarine canyons that cut across the continental shelf and extend into the nearshore zone. These types of canyons intercept alongshore sediment transport and flush sand to abyssal depths during periodic turbidity currents, thereby delineating coastal sediment transport pathways and affecting shoreline evolution over large spatial and time scales. How tectonic, sediment transport, and canyon processes interact with inherited topographic and lithologic settings to shape rocky coastlines remains an unanswered, and largely unexplored, question. We will present numerical model results of rocky coastline evolution that starts with an immature fractal coastline. The initial shape is modified by headland erosion, wave-driven alongshore sediment transport, and submarine canyon placement. Our previous model results have shown that, as expected, an initial sediment-free irregularly shaped rocky coastline with homogeneous lithology will undergo smoothing in response to wave attack; headlands erode and mobile sediment is swept into bays, forming isolated pocket beaches. As this diffusive process continues, pocket beaches coalesce, and a continuous sediment transport pathway results. However, when a randomly placed submarine canyon is introduced to the system as a sediment sink, the end results are wholly different: sediment cover is reduced, which in turn increases weathering and erosion rates and causes the entire shoreline to move landward more rapidly. The canyon's alongshore position also affects coastline morphology. When placed offshore of a headland, the submarine canyon captures local sediment

  1. Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

  2. Driftcretions: The legacy impacts of driftwood on shoreline morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Natalie; Wohl, Ellen

    2015-07-01

    This research demonstrates how vegetation interacts with physical processes to govern landscape development. We quantify and describe interactions among driftwood, sedimentation, and vegetation for Great Slave Lake, which is used as proxy for shoreline dynamics and landforms before deforestation and wood removal along major waterways. We introduce driftcretion to describe large, persistent concentrations of driftwood that interact with vegetation and sedimentation to influence shoreline evolution. We report the volume and distribution of driftwood along shorelines, the morphological impacts of driftwood delivery throughout the Holocene, and rates of driftwood accretion. Driftcretions facilitate the formation of complex, diverse morphologies that increase biological productivity and organic carbon capture and buffer against erosion. Driftcretions should be common on shorelines receiving a large wood supply and with processes which store wood permanently. We encourage others to work in these depositional zones to understand the physical and biological impacts of large wood export from river basins.

  3. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  4. A simple model for binary star evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whyte, C.A.; Eggleton, P.P.

    1985-01-01

    A simple model for calculating the evolution of binary stars is presented. Detailed stellar evolution calculations of stars undergoing mass and energy transfer at various rates are reported and used to identify the dominant physical processes which determine the type of evolution. These detailed calculations are used to calibrate the simple model and a comparison of calculations using the detailed stellar evolution equations and the simple model is made. Results of the evolution of a few binary systems are reported and compared with previously published calculations using normal stellar evolution programs. (author)

  5. Modeling SOL evolution during disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rognlien, T.D.; Cohen, R.H.; Crotinger, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    We present the status of our models and transport simulations of the 2-D evolution of the scrape-off layer (SOL) during tokamak disruptions. This evolution is important for several reasons: It determines how the power from the core plasma is distributed on material surfaces, how impurities from those surfaces or from gas injection migrate back to the core region, and what are the properties of the SOL for carrying halo currents. We simulate this plasma in a time-dependent fashion using the SOL transport code UEDGE. This code models the SOL plasma using fluid equations of plasma density, parallel momentum (along the magnetic field), electron energy, ion energy, and neutral gas density. A multispecies model is used to follow the density of different charge-states of impurities. The parallel transport is classical but with kinetic modifications; these are presently treated by flux limits, but we have initiated more sophisticated models giving the correct long-mean-free path limit. The cross-field transport is anomalous, and one of the results of this work is to determine reasonable values to characterize disruptions. Our primary focus is on the initial thermal quench phase when most of the core energy is lost, but the total current is maintained. The impact of edge currents on the MHD equilibrium will be discussed

  6. The fast debris evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, H. G.; Swinerd, G. G.; Newland, R. J.; Saunders, A.

    2009-09-01

    The 'particles-in-a-box' (PIB) model introduced by Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508-513, 1992.] removed the need for computer-intensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allows the stability of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment to be tested by a straightforward analysis of the equation's coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to investigate more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling and to develop a suite of educational tools, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FADE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects ⩾10 cm are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508-513, 1992.] based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of the FADE model equations can be inferred from the outputs of future projections produced by high-fidelity models, such as the DAMAGE model. The FADE model has been implemented as a client-side, web-based service using JavaScript embedded within a HTML document. Due to the simple nature of the algorithm, FADE can deliver the results of future projections immediately in a graphical format, with complete user-control over key simulation parameters. Historical and future projections for the ⩾10 cm LEO debris environment under a variety of different scenarios are possible, including business as usual, no future launches, post-mission disposal and remediation. A selection of results is presented with comparisons with predictions made using the DAMAGE environment model

  7. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J

    2018-03-29

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines' deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines' deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  8. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland)

    OpenAIRE

    Zbigniew Pruszak; Rafal Ostrowski; Jan Schönhofer

    2011-01-01

    The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain resp...

  9. County Boundaries with Shorelines (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — County boundaries with shorelines cut in (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an extract of selected geographic and...

  10. NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products from the Remote Sensing Division are primarily for application to the nautical charts produced by NOAA's Office of Coast...

  11. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  12. NOAA Composite Shoreline - Vectorized Shoreline Derived From NOAA-NOS Coastal Survey Maps and Aerial Photographs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Composite Shoreline is primarily intended for high-resolution cartographic representation of the shoreline. It is a high-resolution vector shoreline based...

  13. A post-Calumet shoreline along southern Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, D.K.; Thompson, T.A.; Booth, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    The southern shore of Lake Michigan is the type area for many of ancestral Lake Michigan's late Pleistocene lake phases, but coastal deposits and features of the Algonquin phase of northern Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are not recognized in the area. Isostatic rebound models suggest that Algonquin phase deposits should be 100 m or more below modern lake level. A relict shoreline, however, exists along the lakeward margin of the Calumet Beach that was erosional west of Deep River and depositional east of the river. For this post-Calumet shoreline, the elevation of basal foreshore deposits east of Deep River and the base of the scarp west of Deep River indicate a slightly westward dipping water plane that is centered at ???184 m above mean sea level. Basal foreshore elevations also indicate that lake level fell ???2 m during the development of the shoreline. The pooled mean of radiocarbon dates from the surface of the peat below post-Calumet shoreline foreshore deposits indicate that the lake transgressed over the peat at 10,560 ?? 70 years B.P. Pollen assemblages from the peat are consistent with this age. The elevation and age of the post-Calumet shoreline are similar to the Main Algonquin phase of Lake Huron. Recent isostatic rebound models do not adequately address a high-elevation Algonquin-age shoreline along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, but the Goldthwait (1908) hinge-line model does. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  14. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  15. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  16. Modeling plan-form deltaic response to changes in fluvial sediment supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nienhuis, J.H.; Ashton, A.D.; Roos, Pieter C.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Giosan, L.; Kranenburg, W.M.; Horstman, E.M.; Wijnberg, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the effects of changes in fluvial sediment supply on the plan-form shape of wave-dominated deltas. We apply a one-line numerical shoreline model to calculate shoreline evolution after (I) elimination and (II) time-periodic variation of fluvial input. Model results suggest four

  17. Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  18. Drivers of Coastal Shoreline Change: Case Study of Hon Dat Coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  19. SYNTHETIC AGB EVOLUTION .1. A NEW MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GROENEWEGEN, MAT; DEJONG, T

    We have constructed a model to calculate in a synthetic way the evolution of stars on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). The evolution is started at the first thermal pulse (TP) and is terminated when the envelope mass has been lost due to mass loss or when the core mass reaches the Chandrasekhar

  20. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    the shoreline’s sensitivity to the distance from the OWF to the shoreline was studied. The effect of the reduced wind speed inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm was incorporated in a parameterized way in a spectral wind wave model. The shoreline impact was studied with a one-line model....

  1. The Influence of Shoreline Curvature on Rates of Shoreline Change on Sandy Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, A. B.; Lauzon, R.; Cheng, S.; Liu, J.; Lazarus, E.

    2017-12-01

    The sandy, low-lying barrier islands which characterize much of the US East and Gulf coasts are popular spots to live and vacation, and are often heavily developed. However, sandy shorelines and barriers are also naturally mobile landforms, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms and can experience high rates of shoreline change. Many previous studies have attempted to understand and quantify the factors that contribute to those rates of shoreline change, such as grain size, underlying geology, sea level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Shoreline curvature has not been considered in such analyses, but previous research has demonstrated that subtle coastline curvature (and therefore alongshore variation in relative offshore wave angle) can result in gradients in net alongshore transport that cause significant shoreline erosion or accretion. Here we present the results of a spatially extensive analysis of the correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates for the sandy shorelines of the US East and Gulf coasts. We find that, for wave-dominated sandy coasts where nourishment and shoreline stabilization do not dominate the shoreline change signal (such as parts of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida), there is a significant negative correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates over 1 - 5 km and decadal to centurial space and time scales. This correlation indicates that a portion of the coastal erosion (and accretion) observed in these areas can be explained by the smoothing of subtle coastline curvature by gradients in alongshore transport, and suggests that shoreline curvature should be included in future attempts to understand historical and future rates of shoreline change. Shoreline stabilization, especially through beach nourishment, complicates the relationship between curvature and shoreline change. Beach construction during nourishment creates a seaward convex curvature in the part of the shoreline moves

  2. Shoreline dynamics of the active Yellow River delta since the implementation of Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme: A remote-sensing and statistics-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yaoshen; Chen, Shenliang; Zhao, Bo; Pan, Shunqi; Jiang, Chao; Ji, Hongyu

    2018-01-01

    The Active Yellow River (Huanghe) Delta (AYRD) is a complex landform in which rapid deposition takes place due to its geologic formation and evolution. Continuous monitoring of shoreline dynamics at high-temporal frequency is crucial for understanding the processes and the driving factors behind this rapidly changing coast. Great efforts have been devoted to map the changing shoreline of the Yellow River delta and explain such changes through remote sensing data. However, the temporal frequency of shoreline in the obtained datasets are generally not fine enough to reflect the detailed or subtly variable processes of shoreline retreat and advance. To overcome these limitations, we continuously monitored the dynamics of this shoreline using time series of Landsat data based on tidal-level calibration model and orthogonal-transect method. The Abrupt Change Value (ACV) results indicated that the retreat-advance patterns had a significant impact regardless of season or year. The Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) plays a dominant role in delivering river sediment discharge to the sea and has an impact on the annual average maximum ACV, especially at the mouth of the river. The positive relationship among the average ACV, runoff and sediment load are relatively obvious; however, we found that the Relative Exposure Index (REI) that measures wave energy was able to explain only approximately 20% of the variation in the data. Based on the abrupt change at the shoreline of the AYRD, river flow and time, we developed a binary regression model to calculate the critical sediment load and water discharge for maintaining the equilibrium of the active delta from 2002 to 2015. These values were approximately 0.48 × 108 t/yr and 144.37 × 108 m3/yr. If the current water and sediment proportions released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during the WSRS remain stable, the erosion-accretion patterns of the active delta will shift from rapid accretion to a dynamic balance.

  3. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... variability of directional distributions of wave energy fluxes furthermore outlined potential sediment sources and sinks for the evolution of the barrier island system and for the evolution of the recurved spit....... adjacent to a cliff coast. The barrier island system is characterized by cross-shore translation and by an alignment of the barrier alongshore alternating directions of barrier-spit progradation in a bidirectional wave field. The recurved spit adjacent to the cliff coast experienced shoreline rotation...

  4. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I.; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J.

    2018-03-01

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  5. Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Theresa L.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

  6. A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly. Elder

    2006-01-01

    SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

  7. Modelling offshore sand wave evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nemeth, Attila; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; van Damme, Rudolf M.J.

    2007-01-01

    We present a two-dimensional vertical (2DV) flow and morphological numerical model describing the behaviour of offshore sand waves. The model contains the 2DV shallow water equations, with a free water surface and a general bed load formula. The water movement is coupled to the sediment transport

  8. QSO evolution in the interaction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Robertis, M.

    1985-01-01

    QSO evolution is investigated according to the interaction hypothesis described most recently by Stockton (1982), in which activity results from an interaction between two galaxies resulting in the transfer of gas onto a supermassive black hole (SBH) at the center of at least one participant. Explicit models presented here for interactions in cluster environments show that a peak QSO population can be formed in this way at zroughly-equal2--3, with little activity prior to this epoch. Calculated space densities match those inferred from observations for this epoch. Substantial density evolution is expected in such models, since, after virialization, conditions in the cores of rich clusters lead to the depletion of gas-rich systems through ram-pressure stripping. Density evolution parameters of 6--12 are easily accounted for. At smaller redshifts, however, QSOs should be found primarily in poor clusters or groups. Probability estimates provided by this model are consistent with local estimates for the observed number of QSOs per interaction. Significant luminosity-dependent evolution might also be expected in these models. It is suggested that the mean SBH mass increases with lookback time, leading to a statistical brightening with redshift. Undoubtedly, both forms of evolution contribute to the overall QSO luminosity function

  9. Evolution of the ICESIM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, R.W.; Groeneveld, J.L.

    1997-01-01

    A computer model named ICESIM was developed by Acres International in 1973 to study river ice problems associated with the construction of the Limestone Hydroelectric Generating Station on the Nelson River. The program could numerically simulate the processes of river ice formation under steady state conditions of flow. The program has evolved over two decades and has been used as a design and analytical tool for several river ice problems. One of the shortcomings of the model was its inability to consider varying river flows during a simulation. The model has recently been restructured into a new version called ICEDYN which uses a hydrodynamic module to compute river hydraulics. The ICEDYN program uses the same approach as ICESIM, but river hydraulics, which are affected by changes in inflow, and the accumulation of ice, are computed through a hydrodynamic solution of the St. Venant Equations. The ICEDYN model requires an extensive data set to describe the particular river reach being simulated. It has been tested on the Nelson River in northern Manitoba to see whether the numerical methods in the model can successfully represent field conditions. Results were encouraging but additional refinement is still needed. 7 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs

  10. Shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution (SAGE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartczak, P.; Dudziński, G.

    2018-02-01

    In this work, we present SAGE (shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution), an asteroid modelling algorithm based solely on photometric lightcurve data. It produces non-convex shapes, orientations of the rotation axes and rotational periods of asteroids. The main concept behind a genetic evolution algorithm is to produce random populations of shapes and spin-axis orientations by mutating a seed shape and iterating the process until it converges to a stable global minimum. We tested SAGE on five artificial shapes. We also modelled asteroids 433 Eros and 9 Metis, since ground truth observations for them exist, allowing us to validate the models. We compared the derived shape of Eros with the NEAR Shoemaker model and that of Metis with adaptive optics and stellar occultation observations since other models from various inversion methods were available for Metis.

  11. Uncertainties in shoreline position analysis: the role of run-up and tide in a gentle slope beach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Manno

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades in the Mediterranean Sea, high anthropic pressure from increasing economic and touristic development has affected several coastal areas. Today the erosion phenomena threaten human activities and existing structures, and interdisciplinary studies are needed to better understand actual coastal dynamics. Beach evolution analysis can be conducted using GIS methodologies, such as the well-known Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS, in which error assessment based on shoreline positioning plays a significant role. In this study, a new approach is proposed to estimate the positioning errors due to tide and wave run-up influence. To improve the assessment of the wave run-up uncertainty, a spectral numerical model was used to propagate waves from deep to intermediate water and a Boussinesq-type model for intermediate water up to the swash zone. Tide effects on the uncertainty of shoreline position were evaluated using data collected by a nearby tide gauge. The proposed methodology was applied to an unprotected, dissipative Sicilian beach far from harbors and subjected to intense human activities over the last 20 years. The results show wave run-up and tide errors ranging from 0.12 to 4.5 m and from 1.20 to 1.39 m, respectively.

  12. A model for evolution and extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Bruce W.; Newman, M. E. J.

    1995-01-01

    We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossi...

  13. Integrated Shoreline Extraction Approach with Use of Rasat MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, N.; Oy, S.; Erdem, F.; Şeker, D. Z.; Bayram, B.

    2017-09-01

    Shorelines are complex ecosystems and highly important socio-economic environments. They may change rapidly due to both natural and human-induced effects. Determination of movements along the shoreline and monitoring of the changes are essential for coastline management, modeling of sediment transportation and decision support systems. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to obtain rapid, up-to-date and reliable information for monitoring of shoreline. In this study, approximately 120 km of Antalya-Kemer shoreline which is under the threat of erosion, deposition, increasing of inhabitants and urbanization and touristic hotels, has been selected as the study area. In the study, RASAT pansharpened and SENTINEL-1A SAR images have been used to implement proposed shoreline extraction methods. The main motivation of this study is to combine the land/water body segmentation results of both RASAT MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR images to improve the quality of the results. The initial land/water body segmentation has been obtained using RASAT image by means of Random Forest classification method. This result has been used as training data set to define fuzzy parameters for shoreline extraction from SENTINEL-1A SAR image. Obtained results have been compared with the manually digitized shoreline. The accuracy assessment has been performed by calculating perpendicular distances between reference data and extracted shoreline by proposed method. As a result, the mean difference has been calculated around 1 pixel.

  14. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain respective rates of 0.7 m day-1 and 0.4 m day-1. Deep-water wave energy of about 50 kJ m-1 constitutes the boundary between shore accumulation and erosion.

  15. The thermal evolution of universe: standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nascimento, L.C.S. do.

    1975-08-01

    A description of the dynamical evolution of the Universe following a model based on the theory of General Relativity is made. The model admits the Cosmological principle,the principle of Equivalence and the Robertson-Walker metric (of which an original derivation is presented). In this model, the universe is considered as a perfect fluid, ideal and symmetric relatively to the number of particles and antiparticles. The thermodynamic relations deriving from these hypothesis are derived, and from them the several eras of the thermal evolution of the universe are established. Finally, the problems arising from certain specific predictions of the model are studied, and the predictions of the abundances of the elements according to nucleosynthesis and the actual behavior of the universe are analysed in detail. (author) [pt

  16. Modeling of microstructural evolution under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odette, G.R.

    1979-01-01

    Microstructural evolution under irradiation is an extremely complex phenomenon involving numerous interacting mechanisms which alter both the microstructure and microchemistry of structural alloys. Predictive procedures which correlate primary irradiation and material variables to microstructural response are needed to extrapolate from the imperfect data base, which will be available, to fusion reactor conditions. Clearly, a marriage between models and experiments is needed. Specific steps to achieving such a marriage in the form of composite correlation model analysis are outlined and some preliminary results presented. The strongly correlated nature of microstructural evolution is emphasized and it is suggested that rate theory models, resting on the principle of material balances and focusing on coupled point defect-microchemical segregation processes, may be a practical approach to correlation model development. (orig.)

  17. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  18. Shoreline response to detached breakwaters in prototype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khuong, T.C.

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of shoreline changes behind detached breakwaters is, in regard to the adjustment to the environmental impact, still a challenge for designers and coastal managers. This research is expected to fill the gaps in the estimation of shoreline changes by developing new and

  19. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  20. Modeling the microstructural evolution during constrained sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    A numerical model able to simulate solid state constrained sintering of a powder compact is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for free sintering with a finite element (FE) method for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural response...... to the stress field as well as the FE calculation of the stress field from the microstructural evolution is discussed. The sintering behavior of two powder compacts constrained by a rigid substrate is simulated and compared to free sintering of the same samples. Constrained sintering result in a larger number...

  1. Modeling aeolian dune and dune field evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniega, Serina

    Aeolian sand dune morphologies and sizes are strongly connected to the environmental context and physical processes active since dune formation. As such, the patterns and measurable features found within dunes and dune fields can be interpreted as records of environmental conditions. Using mathematical models of dune and dune field evolution, it should be possible to quantitatively predict dune field dynamics from current conditions or to determine past field conditions based on present-day observations. In this dissertation, we focus on the construction and quantitative analysis of a continuum dune evolution model. We then apply this model towards interpretation of the formative history of terrestrial and martian dunes and dune fields. Our first aim is to identify the controls for the characteristic lengthscales seen in patterned dune fields. Variations in sand flux, binary dune interactions, and topography are evaluated with respect to evolution of individual dunes. Through the use of both quantitative and qualitative multiscale models, these results are then extended to determine the role such processes may play in (de)stabilization of the dune field. We find that sand flux variations and topography generally destabilize dune fields, while dune collisions can yield more similarly-sized dunes. We construct and apply a phenomenological macroscale dune evolution model to then quantitatively demonstrate how dune collisions cause a dune field to evolve into a set of uniformly-sized dunes. Our second goal is to investigate the influence of reversing winds and polar processes in relation to dune slope and morphology. Using numerical experiments, we investigate possible causes of distinctive morphologies seen in Antarctic and martian polar dunes. Finally, we discuss possible model extensions and needed observations that will enable the inclusion of more realistic physical environments in the dune and dune field evolution models. By elucidating the qualitative and

  2. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  3. LAPSUS: soil erosion - landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud; Schoorl, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    LAPSUS is a soil erosion - landscape evolution model which is capable of simulating landscape evolution of a gridded DEM by using multiple water, mass movement and human driven processes on multiple temporal and spatial scales. It is able to deal with a variety of human landscape interventions such as landuse management and tillage and it can model their interactions with natural processes. The complex spatially explicit feedbacks the model simulates demonstrate the importance of spatial interaction of human activity and erosion deposition patterns. In addition LAPSUS can model shallow landsliding, slope collapse, creep, solifluction, biological and frost weathering, fluvial behaviour. Furthermore, an algorithm to deal with natural depressions has been added and event-based modelling with an improved infiltration description and dust deposition has been pursued. LAPSUS has been used for case studies in many parts of the world and is continuously developing and expanding. it is now available for third-party and educational use. It has a comprehensive user interface and it is accompanied by a manual and exercises. The LAPSUS model is highly suitable to quantify and understand catchment-scale erosion processes. More information and a download link is available on www.lapsusmodel.nl.

  4. Optimal evolution models for quantum tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czerwiński, Artur

    2016-01-01

    The research presented in this article concerns the stroboscopic approach to quantum tomography, which is an area of science where quantum physics and linear algebra overlap. In this article we introduce the algebraic structure of the parametric-dependent quantum channels for 2-level and 3-level systems such that the generator of evolution corresponding with the Kraus operators has no degenerate eigenvalues. In such cases the index of cyclicity of the generator is equal to 1, which physically means that there exists one observable the measurement of which performed a sufficient number of times at distinct instants provides enough data to reconstruct the initial density matrix and, consequently, the trajectory of the state. The necessary conditions for the parameters and relations between them are introduced. The results presented in this paper seem to have considerable potential applications in experiments due to the fact that one can perform quantum tomography by conducting only one kind of measurement. Therefore, the analyzed evolution models can be considered optimal in the context of quantum tomography. Finally, we introduce some remarks concerning optimal evolution models in the case of n-dimensional Hilbert space. (paper)

  5. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  6. Galactic chemical evolution in hierarchical formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigoni, Matias

    2010-10-01

    The chemical properties and abundance ratios of galaxies provide important information about their formation histories. Galactic chemical evolution has been modelled in detail within the monolithic collapse scenario. These models have successfully described the abundance distributions in our Galaxy and other spiral discs, as well as the trends of metallicity and abundance ratios observed in early-type galaxies. In the last three decades, however, the paradigm of hierarchical assembly in a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) cosmology has revised the picture of how structure in the Universe forms and evolves. In this scenario, galaxies form when gas radiatively cools and condenses inside dark matter haloes, which themselves follow dissipationless gravitational collapse. The CDM picture has been successful at predicting many observed properties of galaxies (for example, the luminosity and stellar mass function of galaxies, color-magnitude or star formation rate vs. stellar mass distributions, relative numbers of early and late-type galaxies, gas fractions and size distributions of spiral galaxies, and the global star formation history), though many potential problems and open questions remain. It is therefore interesting to see whether chemical evolution models, when implemented within this modern cosmological context, are able to correctly predict the observed chemical properties of galaxies. With the advent of more powerfull telescopes and detectors, precise observations of chemical abundances and abundance ratios in various phases (stellar, ISM, ICM) offer the opportunity to obtain strong constraints on galaxy formation histories and the physics that shapes them. However, in order to take advantage of these observations, it is necessary to implement detailed modeling of chemical evolution into a modern cosmological model of hierarchical assembly.

  7. Historical Shoreline for Louisiana, Geographic NAD83, NOAA (2001) [shoreline_la_NOAA_1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    Louisiana Geographic Information Center — These data were automated to provide a suitable geographic information system (GIS) data layer depicting the historical shoreline for Louisiana. These data are...

  8. Mathematical models of ecology and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai

    2012-01-01

    -history processes: net-assimilation mechanism of 􀀀rule and net-reproduction mechanism of size dependence using a simple model comprising a size-structured consumer Daphina and an unstructured resource alge. It is found that in contrast to the former mechanism, the latter tends to destabilize population...... dynamics but as a trade-o promotes species survival by shortening juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction. Paper II compares the size-spectrum and food-web representations of communities using two traits (body size and habitat location) based unstructured population model of Lotka......) based size-structured population model, that is, interference in foraging, maintenance, survival, and recruitment. Their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities are explored. Ecologically, interference aects population demographic properties either negatively...

  9. A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

  10. UNCERTAINTIES IN GALACTIC CHEMICAL EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Côté, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Herwig, Falk; O’Shea, Brian W.; Pignatari, Marco; Jones, Samuel; Fryer, Chris L.

    2016-01-01

    We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions, along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model

  11. A Mudball Model for the Evolution of Carbonaceous Asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, B. J.; Bland, P. A.

    2018-05-01

    We simulation the evolution of carbonaceous chondrite parent bodies from initially unconsolidated aggregations of rock grains and ice crystals. Application of the numerical model MAGHNUM to evolution of CM type planetesimals and Ceres is described.

  12. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  13. Spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline change of a 280-km high-energy disrupted sandy coast from 1950 to 2014: SW France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelle, Bruno; Guillot, Benoit; Marieu, Vincent; Chaumillon, Eric; Hanquiez, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Poppeschi, Coline

    2018-01-01

    A dataset of 15 geo-referenced orthomosaics photos was generated to address long-term shoreline change along approximately 270 km of high-energy sandy coast in SW France between 1950 and 2014. The coast consists of sandy beaches backed by coastal dunes, which are only disrupted by two wide tidal inlets (Arcachon and Maumusson), a wide estuary mouth (Gironde) and a few small wave-dominated inlets and coastal towns. A time and spatially averaged erosion trend of 1.12 m/year is found over 1950-2014, with a local maximum of approximately 11 m/year and a maximum local accretion of approximately 6 m/year, respectively. Maximum shoreline evolutions are observed along coasts adjacent to the inlets and to the estuary mouth, with erosion and accretion alternating over time on the timescale of decades. The two inlet-sandspit systems of Arcachon and Maumusson show a quasi-synchronous behaviour with the two updrift coasts accreting until the 1970s and subsequently eroding since then, which suggests that shoreline change at these locations is controlled by allocyclic mechanisms. Despite sea level rise and the well-established increase in winter wave height over the last decades, there is no capture of significant increase in mean erosion rate. This is hypothesized to be partly the result of relevant coastal dune management works from the 1960s to the 1980s after a long period of coastal dune disrepair during and after the Second World War. This study suggests that long-term shoreline change of high-energy sandy coasts disrupted by inlets and/or estuaries is complex and needs to consider a wide range of parameters including, non-extensively, waves, tides, inlet dynamics, sea level rise, coastal dune management and coastal defences, which challenges the development of reliable long-term coastal evolution numerical models.

  14. Genealogies in simple models of evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunet, Éric; Derrida, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    We review the statistical properties of the genealogies of a few models of evolution. In the asexual case, selection leads to coalescence times which grow logarithmically with the size of the population, in contrast with the linear growth of the neutral case. Moreover for a whole class of models, the statistics of the genealogies are those of the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent rather than the Kingman coalescent in the neutral case. For sexual reproduction in the neutral case, the time to reach the first common ancestors for the whole population and the time for all individuals to have all their ancestors in common are also logarithmic in the population size, as predicted by Chang in 1999. We discuss how these times are modified by introducing selection in a simple way. (paper)

  15. Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

    2002-05-01

    The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

  16. Phenotypic heterogeneity in modeling cancer evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mahdipour-Shirayeh

    Full Text Available The unwelcome evolution of malignancy during cancer progression emerges through a selection process in a complex heterogeneous population structure. In the present work, we investigate evolutionary dynamics in a phenotypically heterogeneous population of stem cells (SCs and their associated progenitors. The fate of a malignant mutation is determined not only by overall stem cell and non-stem cell growth rates but also differentiation and dedifferentiation rates. We investigate the effect of such a complex population structure on the evolution of malignant mutations. We derive exactly calculated results for the fixation probability of a mutant arising in each of the subpopulations. The exactly calculated results are in almost perfect agreement with the numerical simulations. Moreover, a condition for evolutionary advantage of a mutant cell versus the wild type population is given in the present study. We also show that microenvironment-induced plasticity in invading mutants leads to more aggressive mutants with higher fixation probability. Our model predicts that decreasing polarity between stem and non-stem cells' turnover would raise the survivability of non-plastic mutants; while it would suppress the development of malignancy for plastic mutants. The derived results are novel and general with potential applications in nature; we discuss our model in the context of colorectal/intestinal cancer (at the epithelium. However, the model clearly needs to be validated through appropriate experimental data. This novel mathematical framework can be applied more generally to a variety of problems concerning selection in heterogeneous populations, in other contexts such as population genetics, and ecology.

  17. The Efficiency of Random Forest Method for Shoreline Extraction from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 Imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Erdem, F.; Akpinar, B.; Ince, A. K.; Bozkurt, S.; Catal Reis, H.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718) titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model - Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band) and GOKTURK-2 (4th band) imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  18. THE EFFICIENCY OF RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM LANDSAT-8 AND GOKTURK-2 IMAGERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718 titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model – Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band and GOKTURK-2 (4th band imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  19. Automata network models of galaxy evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, David; Scalo, John

    1993-01-01

    Two ideas appear frequently in theories of star formation and galaxy evolution: (1) star formation is nonlocally excitatory, stimulating star formation in neighboring regions by propagation of a dense fragmenting shell or the compression of preexisting clouds; and (2) star formation is nonlocally inhibitory, making H2 regions and explosions which can create low-density and/or high temperature regions and increase the macroscopic velocity dispersion of the cloudy gas. Since it is not possible, given the present state of hydrodynamic modeling, to estimate whether one of these effects greatly dominates the other, it is of interest to investigate the predicted spatial pattern of star formation and its temporal behavior in simple models which incorporate both effects in a controlled manner. The present work presents preliminary results of such a study which is based on lattice galaxy models with various types of nonlocal inhibitory and excitatory couplings of the local SFR to the gas density, temperature, and velocity field meant to model a number of theoretical suggestions.

  20. The Impact of Modeling Assumptions in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W.; Ritter, Christian; Herwig, Falk; Venn, Kim A.

    2017-02-01

    We use the OMEGA galactic chemical evolution code to investigate how the assumptions used for the treatment of galactic inflows and outflows impact numerical predictions. The goal is to determine how our capacity to reproduce the chemical evolution trends of a galaxy is affected by the choice of implementation used to include those physical processes. In pursuit of this goal, we experiment with three different prescriptions for galactic inflows and outflows and use OMEGA within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo code to recover the set of input parameters that best reproduces the chemical evolution of nine elements in the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sculptor. This provides a consistent framework for comparing the best-fit solutions generated by our different models. Despite their different degrees of intended physical realism, we found that all three prescriptions can reproduce in an almost identical way the stellar abundance trends observed in Sculptor. This result supports the similar conclusions originally claimed by Romano & Starkenburg for Sculptor. While the three models have the same capacity to fit the data, the best values recovered for the parameters controlling the number of SNe Ia and the strength of galactic outflows, are substantially different and in fact mutually exclusive from one model to another. For the purpose of understanding how a galaxy evolves, we conclude that only reproducing the evolution of a limited number of elements is insufficient and can lead to misleading conclusions. More elements or additional constraints such as the Galaxy’s star-formation efficiency and the gas fraction are needed in order to break the degeneracy between the different modeling assumptions. Our results show that the successes and failures of chemical evolution models are predominantly driven by the input stellar yields, rather than by the complexity of the Galaxy model itself. Simple models such as OMEGA are therefore sufficient to test and validate stellar yields. OMEGA

  1. A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

  2. Shoreline clean-up methods : biological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoura, S.T. [Oil Spill Response Limited, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The cleanup of oil spills in shoreline environments is a challenging issue worldwide. Oil spills receive public and media attention, particularly in the event of a coastal impact. It is important to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of cleanup methods when defining the level of effort and consequences that are appropriate to remove or treat different types of oil on different shoreline substrates. Of the many studies that have compared different mechanical, chemical and biological treatments for their effectiveness on various types of oil, biological techniques have received the most attention. For that reason, this paper evaluated the effectiveness and effects of shoreline cleanup methods using biological techniques. It summarized data from field experiments and oil spill incidents, including the Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, Prestige, Grand Eagle, Nakhodka, Guanabara Bay and various Gulf war oil spills. Five major shoreline types were examined, notably rocky intertidal, cobble/pebble/gravel, sand/mud, saltmarsh, and mangrove/sea-grass. The biological techniques that were addressed were nutrient enrichment, hydrocarbon-utilizing bacteria, vegetable oil biosolvents, plants, surf washing, oil-particle interactions and natural attenuation. The study considered the oil type, volume and fate of stranded oil, location of coastal materials, extent of pollution and the impact of biological techniques. The main factors that affect biodegradation of hydrocarbons are the volume, chemical composition and weathering state of the petroleum product as well as the temperature, oxygen availability of nutrients, water salinity, pH level, water content, and microorganisms in the shoreline environment. The interaction of these factors also affect the biodegradation of oil. It was concluded that understanding the fate of stranded oil can help in the development of techniques that improve the weathering and degradation of oil on complex shoreline substrates. 39 refs.

  3. Genetic Models in Evolutionary Game Theory: The Evolution of Altruism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rubin, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    While prior models of the evolution of altruism have assumed that organisms reproduce asexually, this paper presents a model of the evolution of altruism for sexually reproducing organisms using Hardy–Weinberg dynamics. In this model, the presence of reciprocal altruists allows the population to

  4. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-07-18

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic regions of the United States have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included four shoreline positions at a given location. The long-term shoreline change rates also incorporate the proxy-datum bias correction to account for the unidirectional onshore bias of the proxy-based high water line shorelines relative to the datum-based mean high water shorelines. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment project. The average rates reported here have a reduced amount of uncertainty relative to those presented in the previous assessments for these two regions.

  5. Extending the enterprise evolution contextualisation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Marné; van der Merwe, Alta; Gerber, Aurona

    2017-07-01

    Enterprise engineering (EE) emerged as a new discipline to encourage comprehensive and consistent enterprise design. Since EE is multidisciplinary, various researchers study enterprises from different perspectives, which resulted in a plethora of applicable literature and terminology, but without shared meaning. Previous research specifically focused on the fragmentation of knowledge for designing and aligning the information and communication technology (ICT) subsystem of the enterprise in order to support the business organisation subsystem of the enterprise. As a solution for this fragmented landscape, a business-IT alignment model (BIAM) was developed inductively from existing business-IT alignment approaches. Since most of the existing alignment frameworks addressed the alignment between the ICT subsystem and the business organisation subsystem, BIAM also focused on the alignment between these two subsystems. Yet, the emerging EE discipline intends to address a broader scope of design, evident in the existing approaches that incorporate a broader scope of design/alignment/governance. A need was identified to address the knowledge fragmentation of the EE knowledge base by adapting BIAM to an enterprise evolution contextualisation model (EECM), to contextualise a broader set of approaches, as identified by Lapalme. The main contribution of this article is the incremental development and evaluation of EECM. We also present guiding indicators/prerequisites for applying EECM as a contextualisation tool.

  6. Coastal landforms and the Holocene evolution of the Island of Samso, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sander, Lasse; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Pejrup, Morten

    2016-01-01

    The geomorphology of a coastal landscape may reveal an indication of past shoreline configurations. The spatial arrangement of the preserved morphologies may further contain indications on the importance of the different key parameters influencing shoreline evolution over millennial timescales...

  7. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  8. Development of Biotechnical Methods to Control Shoreline Erosion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mays, D

    1999-01-01

    .... Coconut fiber logs, straw bales wrapped in poultry netting, large round hay bales, and bundled logs anchored to the shoreline were all evaluated for their potential to control wave damage to the shoreline...

  9. Analytic models for the evolution of semilocal string networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunes, A. S.; Martins, C. J. A. P.; Avgoustidis, A.; Urrestilla, J.

    2011-01-01

    We revisit previously developed analytic models for defect evolution and adapt them appropriately for the study of semilocal string networks. We thus confirm the expectation (based on numerical simulations) that linear scaling evolution is the attractor solution for a broad range of model parameters. We discuss in detail the evolution of individual semilocal segments, focusing on the phenomenology of segment growth, and also provide a preliminary comparison with existing numerical simulations.

  10. modelling of directed evolution: Implications for experimental design and stepwise evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wedge , David C.; Rowe , William; Kell , Douglas B.; Knowles , Joshua

    2009-01-01

    In silico modelling of directed evolution: Implications for experimental design and stepwise evolution correspondence: Corresponding author. Tel.: +441613065145. (Wedge, David C.) (Wedge, David C.) Manchester Interdisciplinary Biocentre, University of Manchester - 131 Princess Street--> , Manchester--> , M1 7ND--> - UNITED KINGDOM (Wedge, David C.) UNITED KINGDOM (Wedge, David C.) Man...

  11. Modelling dune evolution and dynamic roughness in rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries

    2008-01-01

    Accurate river flow models are essential tools for water managers, but these hydraulic simulation models often lack a proper description of dynamic roughness due to hysteresis effects in dune evolution. To incorporate the effects of dune evolution directly into the resistance coefficients of

  12. Monitoring Shoreline Change using Remote Sensing and GIS: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), aerial photographs, shoreline change. Data from aerial photographs taken in 1981, 1992 and 2002 of the Kunduchi shoreline off the Dar es Salaam coast were integrated in a geographic information system (GIS) to determine shoreline change in that locality.

  13. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those

  14. New Parallel Algorithms for Landscape Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Shi, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Most landscape evolution models (LEM) developed in the last two decades solve the diffusion equation to simulate the transportation of surface sediments. This numerical approach is difficult to parallelize due to the computation of drainage area for each node, which needs huge amount of communication if run in parallel. In order to overcome this difficulty, we developed two parallel algorithms for LEM with a stream net. One algorithm handles the partition of grid with traditional methods and applies an efficient global reduction algorithm to do the computation of drainage areas and transport rates for the stream net; the other algorithm is based on a new partition algorithm, which partitions the nodes in catchments between processes first, and then partitions the cells according to the partition of nodes. Both methods focus on decreasing communication between processes and take the advantage of massive computing techniques, and numerical experiments show that they are both adequate to handle large scale problems with millions of cells. We implemented the two algorithms in our program based on the widely used finite element library deal.II, so that it can be easily coupled with ASPECT.

  15. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2006-01-01

    The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast is the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico, and will eventually include the Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1997-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ to get additional

  16. Evolution of Black-Box Models Based on Volterra Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. Silveira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical review of the many behavioral models actually used to model radio frequency power amplifiers and a new classification of these behavioral models. It also discusses the evolution of these models, from a single polynomial to multirate Volterra models, presenting equations and estimation methods. New trends in RF power amplifier behavioral modeling are suggested.

  17. Quantitative Modeling of Landscape Evolution, Treatise on Geomorphology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Veldkamp, A.; Shroder, F.S.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter reviews quantitative modeling of landscape evolution – which means that not just model studies but also modeling concepts are discussed. Quantitative modeling is contrasted with conceptual or physical modeling, and four categories of model studies are presented. Procedural studies focus

  18. A model of the microphysical evolution of a cloud

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zinn, J.

    1994-01-01

    The earth's weather and climate are influenced strongly by phenomena associated with clouds. Therefore, a general circulation model (GCM) that models the evolution of weather and climate must include an accurate physical model of the clouds. This paper describes efforts to develop a suitable cloud model. It concentrates on the microphysical processes that determine the evolution of droplet and ice crystal size distributions, precipitation rates, total and condensed water content, and radiative extinction coefficients

  19. Automatic Detection of Decadal Shoreline Change on Northern Coastal of Gresik, East Java - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuad, M. A. Z.; A, M. Fais D.

    2017-12-01

    The Coastal zone is a dynamic region that has high environmental and economic values. This present research focuses on the analyzing the rate of shoreline change using multi-temporal Landsat Imagery and Digital Shoreline Analysis Systems (DSAS) along the northern part of Gresik coastal area, East Java Indonesia. Five village were selected for analysis; Campurejo, Dalegan, Prupuh, Ngemboh, and Banyuurip. Erosion and Accretion were observed and detected on Multi-temporal satellite Images along the area of interest from 1972 - 2016. Landsat Images were radiometrically and geometrically corrected before using for analysis. Coastline delineation for each Landsat image was performed by MNDWI method before digitized for quantitative shoreline change analysis. DSAS was performed for quantitative analysis of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR). The results indicate that in the study area accretion and abrasion was occurred, but overall abrasion was dominated than accretion. The remarkable shoreline changes were observed in the entire region. The highest abrasion area was occurred in Ngemboh village. From 1972 to 2016, coastline was retreat 242.56 meter to the land and the rate of movement was -5.54m/yr. In contrast, Campurejo area was relatively stable due to the introduction of manmade structure, i.e. Jetty and Groin. The Shoreline movement and the rate of movement in this area were -6.11m and -0.12 m/yr respectively. The research represents an important step in understanding the dynamics of coastal area in this area. By identification and analysis of coastline evolution, the stake holder could perform a scenario for reducing the risk of coastal erosion and minimize the social and economic lost.

  20. Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Matthew C; Gaiarsa, Marília P; Stouffer, Daniel B

    2018-02-20

    Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Here, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly finescale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modelling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

  1. Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; French, Jon R.; Barkwith, Andrew; Bonaldo, Davide; Burningham, Helene; Brad Murray, A.; Payo, Andres; Sutherland, James; Thornhill, Gillian; Townend, Ian H.; van der Wegen, Mick; Walkden, Mike J. A.

    2016-03-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called 'reduced complexity' models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner

  2. Modeling Temporal Evolution and Multiscale Structure in Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2013-01-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit both temporal evolution and multiscale structure. We propose a model for temporally correlated multifurcating hierarchies in complex networks which jointly capture both effects. We use the Gibbs fragmentation tree as prior over multifurcating trees and a change......-point model to account for the temporal evolution of each vertex. We demonstrate that our model is able to infer time-varying multiscale structure in synthetic as well as three real world time-evolving complex networks. Our modeling of the temporal evolution of hierarchies brings new insights...

  3. Optimizing romanian maritime coastline using mathematical model Litpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, I. A.; Panaitescu, M.; Panaitescu, F. V.

    2017-08-01

    There are many methods and tools to study shoreline change in coastal engineering. LITPACK is a numerical model included in MIKE software developed by DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute). With this matehematical model we can simulate coastline evolution and profile along beach. Research and methodology: the paper contents location of the study area, the current status of Midia-Mangalia shoreline, protection objectives, the changes of shoreline after having protected constructions. In this paper are presented numerical and graphycal results obtained with this model for studying the romanian maritime coastline in area MIDIA-MANGALIA: non-cohesive sediment transport, long-shore current and littoral drift, coastline evolution, crossshore profile evolution, the development of the coastline position in time.

  4. Modelling the evolution and consequences of mate choice

    OpenAIRE

    Tazzyman, S. J.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis considers the evolution and the consequences of mate choice across a variety of taxa, using game theoretic, population genetic, and quantitative genetic modelling techniques. Part I is about the evolution of mate choice. In chapter 2, a population genetic model shows that mate choice is even beneficial in self-fertilising species such as Saccharomyces yeast. In chapter 3, a game theoretic model shows that female choice will be strongly dependent upon whether the benefi...

  5. Computer modelling as a tool for understanding language evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bart; Gontier, N; VanBendegem, JP; Aerts, D

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the uses of computer models in studying the evolution of language. Language is a complex dynamic system that can be studied at the level of the individual and at the level of the population. Much of the dynamics of language evolution and language change occur because of the

  6. Simulation of shoreline development in a groyne system, with a case study Sanur Bali beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, P. H.; Pudjaprasetya, S. R.

    2018-03-01

    The process of shoreline changes due to transport of sediment by littoral drift is studied in this paper. Pelnard-Considère is the commonly adopted model. This model is based on the principle of sediment conservation, without diffraction. In this research, we adopt the Pelnard-Considère equation with diffraction, and a numerical scheme based on the finite volume method is implemented. Shoreline development in a groyne system is then simulated. For a case study, the Sanur Bali Beach, Indonesia is considered, in which from Google Earth photos, the beach experiences changes of coastline caused by sediment trapped in a groyne system.

  7. Modeling Software Evolution using Algebraic Graph Rewriting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciraci, Selim; van den Broek, Pim

    We show how evolution requests can be formalized using algebraic graph rewriting. In particular, we present a way to convert the UML class diagrams to colored graphs. Since changes in software may effect the relation between the methods of classes, our colored graph representation also employs the

  8. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, L.; Paasse, T.

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  9. The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: Answering recent challenges to the paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedan, Keryn B.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Wolanski, Eric; Barbier, Edward B.; Silliman, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, coastal wetlands have been recognized for their ability to stabilize shorelines and protect coastal communities. However, this paradigm has recently been called into question by small-scale experimental evidence. Here, we conduct a literature review and a small meta-analysis of wave attenuation data, and we find overwhelming evidence in support of established theory. Our review suggests that mangrove and salt marsh vegetation afford context-dependent protection from erosion, storm surge, and potentially small tsunami waves. In biophysical models, field tests, and natural experiments, the presence of wetlands reduces wave heights, property damage, and human deaths. Meta-analysis of wave attenuation by vegetated and unvegetated wetland sites highlights the critical role of vegetation in attenuating waves. Although we find coastal wetland vegetation to be an effective shoreline buffer, wetlands cannot protect shorelines in all locations or scenarios; indeed large-scale regional erosion, river meandering, and large tsunami waves and storm surges can overwhelm the attenuation effect of vegetation. However, due to a nonlinear relationship between wave attenuation and wetland size, even small wetlands afford substantial protection from waves. Combining man-made structures with wetlands in ways that mimic nature is likely to increase coastal protection. Oyster domes, for example, can be used in combination with natural wetlands to protect shorelines and restore critical fishery habitat. Finally, coastal wetland vegetation modifies shorelines in ways (e.g. peat accretion) that increase shoreline integrity over long timescales and thus provides a lasting coastal adaptation measure that can protect shorelines against accelerated sea level rise and more frequent storm inundation. We conclude that the shoreline protection paradigm still stands, but that gaps remain in our knowledge about the mechanistic and context-dependent aspects of shoreline

  10. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah M.; Miner, Michael; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier-island arc. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

  11. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah Mary; Miner, Michael D.; Kulp, Mark; Bohling, Carl; Penland, Shea

    2009-12-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of -0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of -1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from -11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to -41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated -201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of -38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.

  12. Learning and evolution in games and oligopoly models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Possajennikov, A.

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic models of adjustment, as well as static models of equilibrium, are important to understand economic reality. This thesis considers such dynamic models applied to economic games. The models can broadly be divided into two categories: learning and evolution. This thesis analyzes reinforcement

  13. An analytically solvable model for rapid evolution of modular structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadav Kashtan

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems often display modularity, in the sense that they can be decomposed into nearly independent subsystems. Recent studies have suggested that modular structure can spontaneously emerge if goals (environments change over time, such that each new goal shares the same set of sub-problems with previous goals. Such modularly varying goals can also dramatically speed up evolution, relative to evolution under a constant goal. These studies were based on simulations of model systems, such as logic circuits and RNA structure, which are generally not easy to treat analytically. We present, here, a simple model for evolution under modularly varying goals that can be solved analytically. This model helps to understand some of the fundamental mechanisms that lead to rapid emergence of modular structure under modularly varying goals. In particular, the model suggests a mechanism for the dramatic speedup in evolution observed under such temporally varying goals.

  14. Spin Glass Models of Syntax and Language Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Siva, Karthik; Tao, Jim; Marcolli, Matilde

    2015-01-01

    Using the SSWL database of syntactic parameters of world languages, and the MIT Media Lab data on language interactions, we construct a spin glass model of language evolution. We treat binary syntactic parameters as spin states, with languages as vertices of a graph, and assigned interaction energies along the edges. We study a rough model of syntax evolution, under the assumption that a strong interaction energy tends to cause parameters to align, as in the case of ferromagnetic materials. W...

  15. [Modeling asthma evolution by a multi-state model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudemaghe, T; Daurès, J P

    2000-06-01

    There are many scores for the evaluation of asthma. However, most do not take into account the evolutionary aspects of this illness. We propose a model for the clinical course of asthma by a homogeneous Markov model process based on data provided by the A.R.I.A. (Association de Recherche en Intelligence Artificielle dans le cadre de l'asthme et des maladies respiratoires). The criterion used is the activity of the illness during the month before consultation. The activity is divided into three levels: light (state 1), mild (state 2) and severe (state 3). The model allows the evaluation of the strength of transition between states. We found that strong intensities were implicated towards state 2 (lambda(12) and lambda(32)), less towards state 1 (lambda(21) and lambda(31)), and minimum towards state 3 (lambda(23)). This results in an equilibrium distribution essentially divided between state 1 and 2 (44.6% and 51.0% respectively) with a small proportion in state 3 (4.4%). In the future, the increasing amount of available data should permit the introduction of covariables, the distinction of subgroups and the implementation of clinical studies. The interest of this model falls within the domain of the quantification of the illness as well as the representation allowed thereof, while offering a formal framework for the clinical notion of time and evolution.

  16. Cross-Shore Numerical Model CSHORE for Waves, Currents, Sediment Transport and Beach Profile Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    still water shoreline. This modification is necessary for a berm that is slanted downward toward the toe of a dune . The wet probability Pw on the...high dune provides storm protection and damage reduction, recreational and economical benefits, and biological habitats for plants and animals. Most...has been used to predict wave overwash of dunes . The hydrodynamic model has also been extended to the wet and dry zone on a permeable bottom for

  17. Dynamic Evolution Model Based on Social Network Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xi; Gou, Zhi-Jian; Zhang, Shi-Bin; Zhao, Wen

    2013-11-01

    Based on the analysis of evolutionary characteristics of public opinion in social networking services (SNS), in the paper we propose a dynamic evolution model, in which opinions are coupled with topology. This model shows the clustering phenomenon of opinions in dynamic network evolution. The simulation results show that the model can fit the data from a social network site. The dynamic evolution of networks accelerates the opinion, separation and aggregation. The scale and the number of clusters are influenced by confidence limit and rewiring probability. Dynamic changes of the topology reduce the number of isolated nodes, while the increased confidence limit allows nodes to communicate more sufficiently. The two effects make the distribution of opinion more neutral. The dynamic evolution of networks generates central clusters with high connectivity and high betweenness, which make it difficult to control public opinions in SNS.

  18. Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

    2016-12-01

    We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

  19. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the description of a 2-dimensional numerical model constructed for the simulation of beach evolution under the action of wind waves only over the arbitrary land and sea topographies around existing coastal structures and formations. The developed beach evolution numerical model...... is composed of 4 submodels: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on an energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations...... to compute the nearshore depth-averaged wave-induced current velocities and mean water level changes, a sediment transport model to compute the local total sediment transport rates occurring under the action of wind waves, and a bottom evolution model to compute the bed level changes in time based...

  20. Computer models of vocal tract evolution: an overview and critique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.; Fitch, W. T.

    2010-01-01

    Human speech has been investigated with computer models since the invention of digital computers, and models of the evolution of speech first appeared in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Speech science and computer models have a long shared history because speech is a physical signal and can be

  1. Evolution of the Moon: the 1974 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, H.H.

    1975-01-01

    The interpretive evolution of the Moon can be divided now into seven major stages beginning sometime near the end of the formation of the solar system. These stages and their approximate durations are as follows: 1. The Beginning - 4.6 billion years ago. 2. The Melted Shell-4.6-4.4 billion years ago. 3. The Cratered Highlands -4.4-4.1 billion years ago. 4. The Large Basins-4.1-3.9 billion years ago. 5. The Light-Coloured Plains-3.9-3.8 billion years ago 6. The Basaltic Maria -3.8-3.0 billion years ago. 7. The Quiet Crust-3.0 billion years ago to the present. The Apollo and Luna explorations that permit the study of these stages of evolution have each contributed in progressive and significant ways. Through them the early differentiation of the Earth, the nature of the Earth's protocrust, the influence of the formation of large impact basins in that crust, the effects of early partial melting of the protomantle and possibly the earliest stages of the breakup of the protocrust into continents and ocean basins can now be looked at with new insight. (Auth.)

  2. Evolutive masing model, cyclic plasticity, ageing and memory effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidoroff, F.

    1987-01-01

    Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. Such a model must include two basic features: Dissipative behaviour on each cycle (hysteresis loop); evolution of this behaviour during the material's life (cyclic hardening or softening, aging,...). However, if both aspects are present in most existing models, the balance between them may be quite different. Many metallurgical investigations have been performed about the microstructure and its evolution during cyclic loading, and it is desirable to introduce these informations in phenomenological models. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed to combine: the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, aging). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour

  3. Early Cambrian wave-formed shoreline deposits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Glad, Aslaug Clemmensen; Pedersen, Gunver Krarup

    2017-01-01

    -preserved subaqueous dunes and wave ripples indicates deposition in a wave-dominated upper shoreface (littoral zone) environment, and the presence of interference ripples indicates that the littoral zone environment experienced water level fluctuations due to tides and/or changing meteorological conditions. Discoidal....... During this period, wave-formed shoreline sediments (the Vik Member, Hardeberga Formation) were deposited on Bornholm and are presently exposed at Strøby quarry. The sediments consist of fine- and medium-grained quartz-cemented arenites in association with a few silt-rich mudstones. The presence of well...

  4. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Silva, Sergio da; Gleria, Iram

    2011-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.

  5. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  6. Multiobjective optimization of an extremal evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elettreby, M.F.

    2004-09-01

    We propose a two-dimensional model for a co-evolving ecosystem that generalizes the extremal coupled map lattice model. The model takes into account the concept of multiobjective optimization. We find that the system self-organizes into a critical state. The distributions of the distances between subsequent mutations as well as the distribution of avalanches sizes follow power law. (author)

  7. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  8. Evolutive Masing model, cycling plasticity, ageing and memory effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidoroff, F.

    1987-01-01

    Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed (Fougeres, Sidoroff, Vincent and Waille 1985) to combine - the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, - the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, - a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, ageing). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour. (orig./GL)

  9. A last updating evolution model for online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Zhan; Xia, Zhengyou; Wang, Jiandong; Zhang, Chengcui

    2013-05-01

    As information technology has advanced, people are turning to electronic media more frequently for communication, and social relationships are increasingly found on online channels. However, there is very limited knowledge about the actual evolution of the online social networks. In this paper, we propose and study a novel evolution network model with the new concept of “last updating time”, which exists in many real-life online social networks. The last updating evolution network model can maintain the robustness of scale-free networks and can improve the network reliance against intentional attacks. What is more, we also found that it has the “small-world effect”, which is the inherent property of most social networks. Simulation experiment based on this model show that the results and the real-life data are consistent, which means that our model is valid.

  10. Combining pre-spill shoreline segmentation data and shoreline assessment tools to support early response management and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Owens, E.H.; Martin, V.; Laforest, S.

    2003-01-01

    Several organizations, such as Environment Canada and the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, are developing or refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools were recently created by Environment Canada (Quebec and Ontario regions). The tools, which use Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, can be used for planning and documenting support needed for shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system, was conducted at Vercheres, Quebec in October 2002 by Eastern Canada Response Corporation. The testing took place during the planning stage of the early phases of a spill, namely after the first over-flight. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The information would have to be available in time to be considered during the planning activities. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  11. Application of the evolution theory in modelling of innovation diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Milan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The theory of evolution has found numerous analogies and applications in other scientific disciplines apart from biology. In that sense, today the so-called 'memetic-evolution' has been widely accepted. Memes represent a complex adaptable system, where one 'meme' represents an evolutional cultural element, i.e. the smallest unit of information which can be identified and used in order to explain the evolution process. Among others, the field of innovations has proved itself to be a suitable area where the theory of evolution can also be successfully applied. In this work the authors have started from the assumption that it is also possible to apply the theory of evolution in the modelling of the process of innovation diffusion. Based on the conducted theoretical research, the authors conclude that the process of innovation diffusion in the interpretation of a 'meme' is actually the process of imitation of the 'meme' of innovation. Since during the process of their replication certain 'memes' show a bigger success compared to others, that eventually leads to their natural selection. For the survival of innovation 'memes', their manifestations are of key importance in the sense of their longevity, fruitfulness and faithful replicating. The results of the conducted research have categorically confirmed the assumption of the possibility of application of the evolution theory with the innovation diffusion with the help of innovation 'memes', which opens up the perspectives for some new researches on the subject.

  12. Modeling the summertime evolution of sea-ice melt ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lüthje, Mikael; Feltham, D.L.; Taylor, P.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a mathematical model describing the summer melting of sea ice. We simulate the evolution of melt ponds and determine area coverage and total surface ablation. The model predictions are tested for sensitivity to the melt rate of unponded ice, enhanced melt rate beneath the melt ponds...

  13. Optimality models in the age of experimental evolution and genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, J J; Wang, I-N

    2010-09-01

    Optimality models have been used to predict evolution of many properties of organisms. They typically neglect genetic details, whether by necessity or design. This omission is a common source of criticism, and although this limitation of optimality is widely acknowledged, it has mostly been defended rather than evaluated for its impact. Experimental adaptation of model organisms provides a new arena for testing optimality models and for simultaneously integrating genetics. First, an experimental context with a well-researched organism allows dissection of the evolutionary process to identify causes of model failure--whether the model is wrong about genetics or selection. Second, optimality models provide a meaningful context for the process and mechanics of evolution, and thus may be used to elicit realistic genetic bases of adaptation--an especially useful augmentation to well-researched genetic systems. A few studies of microbes have begun to pioneer this new direction. Incompatibility between the assumed and actual genetics has been demonstrated to be the cause of model failure in some cases. More interestingly, evolution at the phenotypic level has sometimes matched prediction even though the adaptive mutations defy mechanisms established by decades of classic genetic studies. Integration of experimental evolutionary tests with genetics heralds a new wave for optimality models and their extensions that does not merely emphasize the forces driving evolution.

  14. Fluorine in the solar neighborhood: Chemical evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitoni, E.; Matteucci, F.; Jönsson, H.; Ryde, N.; Romano, D.

    2018-04-01

    Context. In light of new observational data related to fluorine abundances in solar neighborhood stars, we present chemical evolution models testing various fluorine nucleosynthesis prescriptions with the aim to best fit those new data. Aim. We consider chemical evolution models in the solar neighborhood testing various nucleosynthesis prescriptions for fluorine production with the aim of reproducing the observed abundance ratios [F/O] versus [O/H] and [F/Fe] versus [Fe/H]. We study in detail the effects of various stellar yields on fluorine production. Methods: We adopted two chemical evolution models: the classical two-infall model, which follows the chemical evolution of halo-thick disk and thin disk phases; and the one-infall model, which is designed only for thin disk evolution. We tested the effects on the predicted fluorine abundance ratios of various nucleosynthesis yield sources, that is, asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, Wolf-Rayet (W-R) stars, Type II and Type Ia supernovae, and novae. Results: The fluorine production is dominated by AGB stars but the W-R stars are required to reproduce the trend of the observed data in the solar neighborhood with our chemical evolution models. In particular, the best model both for the two-infall and one-infall cases requires an increase by a factor of 2 of the W-R yields. We also show that the novae, even if their yields are still uncertain, could help to better reproduce the secondary behavior of F in the [F/O] versus [O/H] relation. Conclusions: The inclusion of the fluorine production by W-R stars seems to be essential to reproduce the new observed ratio [F/O] versus [O/H] in the solar neighborhood. Moreover, the inclusion of novae helps to reproduce the observed fluorine secondary behavior substantially.

  15. Rethinking the evolution of specialization: A model for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ilan N; Doebeli, Michael

    2017-12-21

    Phenotypic heterogeneity refers to genetically identical individuals that express different phenotypes, even when in the same environment. Traditionally, "bet-hedging" in fluctuating environments is offered as the explanation for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity. However, there are an increasing number of examples of microbial populations that display phenotypic heterogeneity in stable environments. Here we present an evolutionary model of phenotypic heterogeneity of microbial metabolism and a resultant theory for the evolution of phenotypic versus genetic specialization. We use two-dimensional adaptive dynamics to track the evolution of the population phenotype distribution of the expression of two metabolic processes with a concave trade-off. Rather than assume a Gaussian phenotype distribution, we use a Beta distribution that is capable of describing genotypes that manifest as individuals with two distinct phenotypes. Doing so, we find that environmental variation is not a necessary condition for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity, which can evolve as a form of specialization in a stable environment. There are two competing pressures driving the evolution of specialization: directional selection toward the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity and disruptive selection toward genetically determined specialists. Because of the lack of a singular point in the two-dimensional adaptive dynamics and the fact that directional selection is a first order process, while disruptive selection is of second order, the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity dominates and often precludes speciation. We find that branching, and therefore genetic specialization, occurs mainly under two conditions: the presence of a cost to maintaining a high phenotypic variance or when the effect of mutations is large. A cost to high phenotypic variance dampens the strength of selection toward phenotypic heterogeneity and, when sufficiently large, introduces a singular point into

  16. Continuous "in vitro" Evolution of a Ribozyme Ligase: A Model Experiment for the Evolution of a Biomolecule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledbetter, Michael P.; Hwang, Tony W.; Stovall, Gwendolyn M.; Ellington, Andrew D.

    2013-01-01

    Evolution is a defining criterion of life and is central to understanding biological systems. However, the timescale of evolutionary shifts in phenotype limits most classroom evolution experiments to simple probability simulations. "In vitro" directed evolution (IVDE) frequently serves as a model system for the study of Darwinian…

  17. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny L; Currin, Carolyn A; O'Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  18. Applications of a composite model of microstructural evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoller, R.E.

    1986-01-01

    Near-term fusion reactors will have to be designed using radiation effects data from experiments conducted in fast fission reactors. These fast reactors generate atomic displacements at a rate similar to that expected in a DT fusion reactor first wall. However, the transmutant helium production in an austenitic stainless steel first wall will exceed that in fast reactor fuel cladding by about a factor of 30. Hence, the use of the fast reactor data will involve some extrapolation. A major goal of this work is to develop theoretical models of microstructural evolution to aid in this extrapolation. In the present work a detailed rate-theory-based model of microstructural evolution under fast neutron irradiation has been developed. The prominent new aspect of this model is a treatment of dislocation evolution in which Frank faulted loops nucleate, grow and unfault to provide a source for network dislocations while the dislocation network can be simultaneously annihilated by a climb/glide process. The predictions of this model compare very favorably with the observed dose and temperature dependence of these key microstructural features over a broad range. In addition, this new description of dislocation evolution has been coupled with a previously developed model of cavity evolution and good agreement has been obtained between the predictions of the composite model and fast reactor swelling data. The results from the composite model also reveal that the various components of the irradiation-induced microstructure evolve in a highly coupled manner. The predictions of the composite model are more sensitive to parametric variations than more simple models. Hence, its value as a tool in data analysis and extrapolation is enhanced

  19. Modeling on Fe-Cr microstructure: evolution with Cr content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz Arroyo, D.; Perlado, J.M.; Hernandez-Mayoral, M.; Caturla, M.J.; Victoria, M.

    2007-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The minimum energy configuration of interstitials in the Fe-Cr system, which is the base for the low activation steels being developed in the European fusion reactor materials community, is determined by magnetism. Magnetism plays also a role in the atomic configurations found with increasing Cr content. Results will be presented from a program in which the microstructure evolution produced after heavy ion irradiation in the range from room temperature to 80 K is studied as a function of the Cr content in alloys produced under well controlled conditions, i.e. from high purity elements and with adequate heat treatment. It is expected that these measurements will serve as matrix for model validation. The first step in such modeling sequence is being performed by modeling the evolution of displacement cascades in Fe using the Dudarev -Derlet and Mendeleev potentials for Fe and the Caro potential for Fe-Cr. It is of particular interest to study the evolution of high-energy cascades, where an attempt will be made to clarify the role of the evolution of sub-cascades. Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) techniques will be used then to simulate the defect evolution. A new parallel kMC code is being implemented for this purpose. (authors)

  20. Evolution of a minimal parallel programming model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, Ewing; Butler, Ralph; Pieper, Steven C.

    2017-01-01

    Here, we take a historical approach to our presentation of self-scheduled task parallelism, a programming model with its origins in early irregular and nondeterministic computations encountered in automated theorem proving and logic programming. We show how an extremely simple task model has evolved into a system, asynchronous dynamic load balancing (ADLB), and a scalable implementation capable of supporting sophisticated applications on today’s (and tomorrow’s) largest supercomputers; and we illustrate the use of ADLB with a Green’s function Monte Carlo application, a modern, mature nuclear physics code in production use. Our lesson is that by surrendering a certain amount of generality and thus applicability, a minimal programming model (in terms of its basic concepts and the size of its application programmer interface) can achieve extreme scalability without introducing complexity.

  1. NOAA's Shoreline Survey Maps - Raster NOAA-NOS Shoreline Survey Manuscripts that define the shoreline and alongshore natural and man-made features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOS coastal survey maps (often called t-sheet or tp-sheet maps) are special use planimetric or topographic maps that precisely define the shoreline and alongshore...

  2. Multiscale analysis of restoration priorities for marine shoreline planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L; Sobocinski, Kathryn L; Thom, Ronald M; May, Christopher W; Borde, Amy B; Southard, Susan L; Vavrinec, John; Sather, Nichole K

    2009-10-01

    Planners are being called on to prioritize marine shorelines for conservation status and restoration action. This study documents an approach to determining the management strategy most likely to succeed based on current conditions at local and landscape scales. The conceptual framework based in restoration ecology pairs appropriate restoration strategies with sites based on the likelihood of producing long-term resilience given the condition of ecosystem structures and processes at three scales: the shorezone unit (site), the drift cell reach (nearshore marine landscape), and the watershed (terrestrial landscape). The analysis is structured by a conceptual ecosystem model that identifies anthropogenic impacts on targeted ecosystem functions. A scoring system, weighted by geomorphic class, is applied to available spatial data for indicators of stress and function using geographic information systems. This planning tool augments other approaches to prioritizing restoration, including historical conditions and change analysis and ecosystem valuation.

  3. Optimality models in the age of experimental evolution and genomics

    OpenAIRE

    Bull, J. J.; Wang, I.-N.

    2010-01-01

    Optimality models have been used to predict evolution of many properties of organisms. They typically neglect genetic details, whether by necessity or design. This omission is a common source of criticism, and although this limitation of optimality is widely acknowledged, it has mostly been defended rather than evaluated for its impact. Experimental adaptation of model organisms provides a new arena for testing optimality models and for simultaneously integrating genetics. First, an experimen...

  4. Evolution analysis of the states of the EZ model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qing-Hua, Chen; Yi-Ming, Ding; Hong-Guang, Dong

    2009-01-01

    Based on suitable choice of states, this paper studies the stability of the equilibrium state of the EZ model by regarding the evolution of the EZ model as a Markov chain and by showing that the Markov chain is ergodic. The Markov analysis is applied to the EZ model with small number of agents, the exact equilibrium state for N = 5 and numerical results for N = 18 are obtained. (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  5. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny L Davis

    Full Text Available Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  6. Energetics in a model of prebiotic evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intoy, B. F.; Halley, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Previously we reported [A. Wynveen et al., Phys. Rev. E 89, 022725 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.022725] that requiring that the systems regarded as lifelike be out of chemical equilibrium in a model of abstracted polymers undergoing ligation and scission first introduced by Kauffman [S. A. Kauffman, The Origins of Order (Oxford University Press, New York, 1993), Chap. 7] implied that lifelike systems were most probable when the reaction network was sparse. The model was entirely statistical and took no account of the bond energies or other energetic constraints. Here we report results of an extension of the model to include effects of a finite bonding energy in the model. We studied two conditions: (1) A food set is continuously replenished and the total polymer population is constrained but the system is otherwise isolated and (2) in addition to the constraints in (1) the system is in contact with a finite-temperature heat bath. In each case, detailed balance in the dynamics is guaranteed during the computations by continuous recomputation of a temperature [in case (1)] and of the chemical potential (in both cases) toward which the system is driven by the dynamics. In the isolated case, the probability of reaching a metastable nonequilibrium state in this model depends significantly on the composition of the food set, and the nonequilibrium states satisfying lifelike condition turn out to be at energies and particle numbers consistent with an equilibrium state at high negative temperature. As a function of the sparseness of the reaction network, the lifelike probability is nonmonotonic, as in our previous model, but the maximum probability occurs when the network is less sparse. In the case of contact with a thermal bath at a positive ambient temperature, we identify two types of metastable nonequilibrium states, termed locally and thermally alive, and locally dead and thermally alive, and evaluate their likelihood of appearance, finding maxima at an optimal

  7. Universality in a Neutral Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Dawn; Scott, Adam; Maric, Nevena; Bahar, Sonya

    2013-03-01

    Agent-based models are ideal for investigating the complex problems of biodiversity and speciation because they allow for complex interactions between individuals and between individuals and the environment. Presented here is a ``null'' model that investigates three mating types - assortative, bacterial, and random - in phenotype space, as a function of the percentage of random death δ. Previous work has shown phase transition behavior in an assortative mating model with variable fitness landscapes as the maximum mutation size (μ) was varied (Dees and Bahar, 2010). Similarly, this behavior was recently presented in the work of Scott et al. (submitted), on a completely neutral landscape, for bacterial-like fission as well as for assortative mating. Here, in order to achieve an appropriate ``null'' hypothesis, the random death process was changed so each individual, in each generation, has the same probability of death. Results show a continuous nonequilibrium phase transition for the order parameters of the population size and the number of clusters (analogue of species) as δ is varied for three different mutation sizes of the system. The system shows increasing robustness as μ increases. Universality classes and percolation properties of this system are also explored. This research was supported by funding from: University of Missouri Research Board and James S. McDonnell Foundation

  8. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.

    In glacial landscape evolution models, subglacial erosion rates are often related to basal sliding or ice discharge by a power-law. This relation can be justified when considering bed abrasion, where rock debris transported in the basal ice drives erosion. However, the relation is not well...... supported when considering models for quarrying of rock blocks from the bed. Field observations indicate that the principal mechanism of glacial erosion is quarrying, which emphasize the importance of a better way of implementing erosion by quarrying in glacial landscape evolution models. Iverson (2012...... around the obstacles. The erosion rate is quantified by considering the likelihood of rock fracturing on topographic bumps. The model includes a statistical treatment of the bedrock weakness, which is neglected in previous quarrying models. Sliding rate, effective pressure, and average bedslope...

  9. HIV-specific probabilistic models of protein evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C Nickle

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Comparative sequence analyses, including such fundamental bioinformatics techniques as similarity searching, sequence alignment and phylogenetic inference, have become a mainstay for researchers studying type 1 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1 genome structure and evolution. Implicit in comparative analyses is an underlying model of evolution, and the chosen model can significantly affect the results. In general, evolutionary models describe the probabilities of replacing one amino acid character with another over a period of time. Most widely used evolutionary models for protein sequences have been derived from curated alignments of hundreds of proteins, usually based on mammalian genomes. It is unclear to what extent these empirical models are generalizable to a very different organism, such as HIV-1-the most extensively sequenced organism in existence. We developed a maximum likelihood model fitting procedure to a collection of HIV-1 alignments sampled from different viral genes, and inferred two empirical substitution models, suitable for describing between-and within-host evolution. Our procedure pools the information from multiple sequence alignments, and provided software implementation can be run efficiently in parallel on a computer cluster. We describe how the inferred substitution models can be used to generate scoring matrices suitable for alignment and similarity searches. Our models had a consistently superior fit relative to the best existing models and to parameter-rich data-driven models when benchmarked on independent HIV-1 alignments, demonstrating evolutionary biases in amino-acid substitution that are unique to HIV, and that are not captured by the existing models. The scoring matrices derived from the models showed a marked difference from common amino-acid scoring matrices. The use of an appropriate evolutionary model recovered a known viral transmission history, whereas a poorly chosen model introduced phylogenetic

  10. The infinite sites model of genome evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Ratan, Aakrosh; Raney, Brian J; Suh, Bernard B; Miller, Webb; Haussler, David

    2008-09-23

    We formalize the problem of recovering the evolutionary history of a set of genomes that are related to an unseen common ancestor genome by operations of speciation, deletion, insertion, duplication, and rearrangement of segments of bases. The problem is examined in the limit as the number of bases in each genome goes to infinity. In this limit, the chromosomes are represented by continuous circles or line segments. For such an infinite-sites model, we present a polynomial-time algorithm to find the most parsimonious evolutionary history of any set of related present-day genomes.

  11. Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Smith, Theresa L.; Knisel, Julia M.; Sampson, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional

  12. Modeling river dune evolution using a parameterization of flow separation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries J.; Dohmen-Janssen, C. Marjolein; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an idealized morphodynamic model to predict river dune evolution. The flow field is solved in a vertical plane assuming hydrostatic pressure conditions. The sediment transport is computed using a Meyer-Peter–Müller type of equation, including gravitational bed slope effects and a

  13. Coastal Foredune Evolution, Part 2: Modeling Approaches for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution by Margaret L. Palmsten1, Katherine L. Brodie2, and Nicholas J. Spore2 PURPOSE: This Coastal and Hydraulics ...managers because foredunes provide ecosystem services and can reduce storm damages to coastal infrastructure, both of which increase the resiliency...MS 2 U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Duck, NC ERDC/CHL CHETN-II-57 March 2017 2 models of

  14. Digital Forensic Investigation Models, an Evolution study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Mushtaque

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In business today, one of the most important segments that enable any business to get competitive advantage over others is appropriate, effective adaptation of Information Technology into business and then managing and governing it on their will. To govern IT organizations need to identify value of acquiring services of forensic firms to compete cyber criminals. Digital forensic firms follow different mechanisms to perform investigation. Time by time forensic firms are facilitated with different models for investigation containing phases for different purposes of the entire process. Along with forensic firms, enterprises also need to build a secure and supportive platform to make successful investigation process possible. We have underlined different elements of organizations in Pakistan; need to be addressed to provide support to forensic firms.

  15. Observational constraints from models of close binary evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greve, J.P. de; Packet, W.

    1984-01-01

    The evolution of a system of 9 solar masses + 5.4 solar masses is computed from Zero Age Main Sequence through an early case B of mass exchange, up to the second phase of mass transfer after core helium burning. Both components are calculated simultaneously. The evolution is divided into several physically different phases. The characteristics of the models in each of these phases are transformed into corresponding 'observable' quantities. The outlook of the system for photometric observations is discussed, for an idealized case. The influence of the mass of the loser and the initial mass ratio is considered. (Auth.)

  16. Anomalous diffusion in neutral evolution of model proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Erik D.; Grishin, Nick V.

    2015-06-01

    Protein evolution is frequently explored using minimalist polymer models, however, little attention has been given to the problem of structural drift, or diffusion. Here, we study neutral evolution of small protein motifs using an off-lattice heteropolymer model in which individual monomers interact as low-resolution amino acids. In contrast to most earlier models, both the length and folded structure of the polymers are permitted to change. To describe structural change, we compute the mean-square distance (MSD) between monomers in homologous folds separated by n neutral mutations. We find that structural change is episodic, and, averaged over lineages (for example, those extending from a single sequence), exhibits a power-law dependence on n . We show that this exponent depends on the alignment method used, and we analyze the distribution of waiting times between neutral mutations. The latter are more disperse than for models required to maintain a specific fold, but exhibit a similar power-law tail.

  17. MODELING THE RED SEQUENCE: HIERARCHICAL GROWTH YET SLOW LUMINOSITY EVOLUTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skelton, Rosalind E.; Bell, Eric F.; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2012-01-01

    We explore the effects of mergers on the evolution of massive early-type galaxies by modeling the evolution of their stellar populations in a hierarchical context. We investigate how a realistic red sequence population set up by z ∼ 1 evolves under different assumptions for the merger and star formation histories, comparing changes in color, luminosity, and mass. The purely passive fading of existing red sequence galaxies, with no further mergers or star formation, results in dramatic changes at the bright end of the luminosity function and color-magnitude relation. Without mergers there is too much evolution in luminosity at a fixed space density compared to observations. The change in color and magnitude at a fixed mass resembles that of a passively evolving population that formed relatively recently, at z ∼ 2. Mergers among the red sequence population ('dry mergers') occurring after z = 1 build up mass, counteracting the fading of the existing stellar populations to give smaller changes in both color and luminosity for massive galaxies. By allowing some galaxies to migrate from the blue cloud onto the red sequence after z = 1 through gas-rich mergers, younger stellar populations are added to the red sequence. This manifestation of the progenitor bias increases the scatter in age and results in even smaller changes in color and luminosity between z = 1 and z = 0 at a fixed mass. The resultant evolution appears much slower, resembling the passive evolution of a population that formed at high redshift (z ∼ 3-5), and is in closer agreement with observations. We conclude that measurements of the luminosity and color evolution alone are not sufficient to distinguish between the purely passive evolution of an old population and cosmologically motivated hierarchical growth, although these scenarios have very different implications for the mass growth of early-type galaxies over the last half of cosmic history.

  18. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

    2017-10-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  19. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  20. Reservoir pressure evolution model during exploration drilling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korotaev B. A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on the analysis of laboratory studies and literature data the method for estimating reservoir pressure in exploratory drilling has been proposed, it allows identify zones of abnormal reservoir pressure in the presence of seismic data on reservoir location depths. This method of assessment is based on developed at the end of the XX century methods using d- and σ-exponentials taking into account the mechanical drilling speed, rotor speed, bit load and its diameter, lithological constant and degree of rocks' compaction, mud density and "regional density". It is known that in exploratory drilling pulsation of pressure at the wellhead is observed. Such pulsation is a consequence of transferring reservoir pressure through clay. In the paper the mechanism for transferring pressure to the bottomhole as well as the behaviour of the clay layer during transmission of excess pressure has been described. A laboratory installation has been built, it has been used for modelling pressure propagation to the bottomhole of the well through a layer of clay. The bulge of the clay layer is established for 215.9 mm bottomhole diameter. Functional correlation of pressure propagation through the layer of clay has been determined and a reaction of the top clay layer has been shown to have bulge with a height of 25 mm. A pressure distribution scheme (balance has been developed, which takes into account the distance from layers with abnormal pressure to the bottomhole. A balance equation for reservoir pressure evaluation has been derived including well depth, distance from bottomhole to the top of the formation with abnormal pressure and density of clay.

  1. Reservoir shorelines : a methodology for evaluating operational impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, M.; Braund-Read, J.; Musgrave, B. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    BC Hydro has been operating hydroelectric facilities for over a century in British Columbia. The integrity and stability of the shorelines and slopes bordering hydroelectric reservoirs is affected by changing water levels in the reservoir, natural processes of flooding, wind and wave action and modification of groundwater levels. Establishing setbacks landward of the shoreline are needed in order to protect useable shoreline property that may be at risk of flooding, erosion or instability due to reservoir operations. Many of the reservoirs in British Columbia are situated in steep, glaciated valleys with diverse geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions and a variety of eroding shorelines. As such, geotechnical studies are needed to determine the operational impacts on reservoir shorelines. Since the 1960s BC Hydro has been developing a methodology for evaluating reservoir impacts and determining the land around the reservoir perimeter that should remain as a right of way for operations while safeguarding waterfront development. The methodology was modified in the 1990s to include geomorphological and geological processes. However, uncertainties in the methodology still exist due to limited understanding of key issues such as rates of erosion and shoreline regression, immaturity of present day reservoir shorelines and impacts of climate change. 11 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  2. Modeling evolution and immune system by cellular automata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezzi, M.

    2001-01-01

    In this review the behavior of two different biological systems is investigated using cellular automata. Starting from this spatially extended approach it is also tried, in some cases, to reduce the complexity of the system introducing mean-field approximation, and solving (or trying to solve) these simplified systems. It is discussed the biological meaning of the results, the comparison with experimental data (if available) and the different features between spatially extended and mean-field versions. The biological systems considered in this review are the following: Darwinian evolution in simple ecosystems and immune system response. In the first section the main features of molecular evolution are introduced, giving a short survey of genetics for physicists and discussing some models for prebiotic systems and simple ecosystems. It is also introduced a cellular automaton model for studying a set of evolving individuals in a general fitness landscape, considering also the effects of co-evolution. In particular the process of species formation (speciation) is described in sect. 5. The second part deals with immune system modeling. The biological features of immune response are discussed, as well as it is introduced the concept of shape space and of idiotypic network. More detailed reviews which deal with immune system models (mainly focused on idiotypic network models) can be found. Other themes here discussed: the applications of CA to immune system modeling, two complex cellular automata for humoral and cellular immune response. Finally, it is discussed the biological data and the general conclusions are drawn in the last section

  3. Tilted lake shorelines record the onset of motion along the Hilton Creek fault adjacent to Long Valley caldera, CA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, J. P.; Finnegan, N. J.; Cervelli, P. F.; Langbein, J. O.

    2010-12-01

    Prominent normal faults occur within and around Long Valley caldera, in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California. However, their relationship to both the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the caldera since the 760 ka eruption of the Bishop Tuff remains poorly understood. In particular, in the Mono-Inyo Craters north of Long Valley, extensional faulting appears to be replaced by dike intrusion where magma is available in the crust. However, it is unclear whether extensional faults in Long Valley caldera have been active since the eruption of the Bishop Tuff (when the current topography was established) or are a relatively young phenomenon owing to the cooling and crystallization of the Long Valley magma reservoir. Here we use GPS geodesy and geomorphology to investigate the evolution of the Hilton Creek fault, the primary range-front fault bounding Long Valley caldera to the southwest. Our primary goals are to determine how long the Hilton Creek fault has been active and whether slip rates have been constant over that time interval. To characterize the modern deformation field, we capitalize on recently (July, 2010) reoccupied GPS benchmarks first established in 1999-2000. These fixed-array GPS data show no discernible evidence for recent slip on the Hilton Creek fault, which further highlights the need for longer-term constraints on fault motion. To establish a fault slip history, we rely on a suite of five prominent shorelines from Pleistocene Long Valley Lake whose ages are well constrained based on field relationships to dated lavas, and that are tilted southward toward the Hilton Creek fault. A preliminary analysis of shoreline orientations using GPS surveys and a 5-m-resolution Topographic Synthetic Aperture Radar (TOPSAR) digital elevation model shows that lake shorelines tilt towards the Hilton Creek fault at roughly parallel gradients (~ 0.6%). The measured shorelines range in inferred age from 100 ka to 500 ka, which constrain recent slip on the Hilton

  4. PROTOPLANETARY DISK STRUCTURE WITH GRAIN EVOLUTION: THE ANDES MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimkin, V.; Wiebe, D.; Pavlyuchenkov, Ya.; Zhukovska, S.; Semenov, D.; Henning, Th.; Vasyunin, A.; Birnstiel, T.

    2013-01-01

    We present a self-consistent model of a protoplanetary disk: 'ANDES' ('AccretioN disk with Dust Evolution and Sedimentation'). ANDES is based on a flexible and extendable modular structure that includes (1) a 1+1D frequency-dependent continuum radiative transfer module, (2) a module to calculate the chemical evolution using an extended gas-grain network with UV/X-ray-driven processes and surface reactions, (3) a module to calculate the gas thermal energy balance, and (4) a 1+1D module that simulates dust grain evolution. For the first time, grain evolution and time-dependent molecular chemistry are included in a protoplanetary disk model. We find that grain growth and sedimentation of large grains onto the disk midplane lead to a dust-depleted atmosphere. Consequently, dust and gas temperatures become higher in the inner disk (R ∼ 50 AU), in comparison with the disk model with pristine dust. The response of disk chemical structure to the dust growth and sedimentation is twofold. First, due to higher transparency a partly UV-shielded molecular layer is shifted closer to the dense midplane. Second, the presence of big grains in the disk midplane delays the freeze-out of volatile gas-phase species such as CO there, while in adjacent upper layers the depletion is still effective. Molecular concentrations and thus column densities of many species are enhanced in the disk model with dust evolution, e.g., CO 2 , NH 2 CN, HNO, H 2 O, HCOOH, HCN, and CO. We also show that time-dependent chemistry is important for a proper description of gas thermal balance.

  5. A microscopic model of rate and state friction evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tianyi; Rubin, Allan M.

    2017-08-01

    Whether rate- and state-dependent friction evolution is primarily slip dependent or time dependent is not well resolved. Although slide-hold-slide experiments are traditionally interpreted as supporting the aging law, implying time-dependent evolution, recent studies show that this evidence is equivocal. In contrast, the slip law yields extremely good fits to velocity step experiments, although a clear physical picture for slip-dependent friction evolution is lacking. We propose a new microscopic model for rate and state friction evolution in which each asperity has a heterogeneous strength, with individual portions recording the velocity at which they became part of the contact. Assuming an exponential distribution of asperity sizes on the surface, the model produces results essentially similar to the slip law, yielding very good fits to velocity step experiments but not improving much the fits to slide-hold-slide experiments. A numerical kernel for the model is developed, and an analytical expression is obtained for perfect velocity steps, which differs from the slip law expression by a slow-decaying factor. By changing the quantity that determines the intrinsic strength, we use the same model structure to investigate aging-law-like time-dependent evolution. Assuming strength to increase logarithmically with contact age, for two different definitions of age we obtain results for velocity step increases significantly different from the aging law. Interestingly, a solution very close to the aging law is obtained if we apply a third definition of age that we consider to be nonphysical. This suggests that under the current aging law, the state variable is not synonymous with contact age.

  6. Topographic evolution of sandbars: Flume experiment and computational modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzel, Paul J.; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Logan, Brandy L.

    2010-01-01

    Measurements of sandbar formation and evolution were carried out in a laboratory flume and the topographic characteristics of these barforms were compared to predictions from a computational flow and sediment transport model with bed evolution. The flume experiment produced sandbars with approximate mode 2, whereas numerical simulations produced a bed morphology better approximated as alternate bars, mode 1. In addition, bar formation occurred more rapidly in the laboratory channel than for the model channel. This paper focuses on a steady-flow laboratory experiment without upstream sediment supply. Future experiments will examine the effects of unsteady flow and sediment supply and the use of numerical models to simulate the response of barform topography to these influences.

  7. Abundance gradients in disc galaxies and chemical evolution models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, A.I.

    1989-01-01

    The present state of abundance gradients and chemical evolution models of spiral galaxies is reviewed. An up to date compilation of abundance data in the literature concerning HII regions over galactic discs is presented. From these data Oxygen and Nitrogen radial gradients are computed. The slope of the Oxygen gradient is shown to have a break at a radius between 1.5 and 1.75 times the value of the effective radius of the disc, i.e. the radius containing half of the light of the disc. The gradient is steeper in the central parts of the disc and becomes flatter in the outer parts. N/O gradients are shown to be rather different from galaxy to galaxy and only a weak trend of N/O with O/H is found. The existing chemical evolution models for spiral galaxies are reviewed with special emphasis in the interpretation of numerical models having a large number of parameters. (author)

  8. Differential Evolution algorithm applied to FSW model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idagawa, H. S.; Santos, T. F. A.; Ramirez, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is a solid state welding process that can be modelled using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. These models use adjustable parameters to control the heat transfer and the heat input to the weld. These parameters are used to calibrate the model and they are generally determined using the conventional trial and error approach. Since this method is not very efficient, we used the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm to successfully determine these parameters. In order to improve the success rate and to reduce the computational cost of the method, this work studied different characteristics of the DE algorithm, such as the evolution strategy, the objective function, the mutation scaling factor and the crossover rate. The DE algorithm was tested using a friction stir weld performed on a UNS S32205 Duplex Stainless Steel.

  9. The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastichiadis, A.; Kazanas, D.

    2009-01-01

    The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approx. 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular. one can this may obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the (nu)F(sub nu), spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

  10. Adaptive Multiscale Modeling of Geochemical Impacts on Fracture Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, S.; Trebotich, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Deng, H.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding fracture evolution is essential for many subsurface energy applications, including subsurface storage, shale gas production, fracking, CO2 sequestration, and geothermal energy extraction. Geochemical processes in particular play a significant role in the evolution of fractures through dissolution-driven widening, fines migration, and/or fracture sealing due to precipitation. One obstacle to understanding and exploiting geochemical fracture evolution is that it is a multiscale process. However, current geochemical modeling of fractures cannot capture this multi-scale nature of geochemical and mechanical impacts on fracture evolution, and is limited to either a continuum or pore-scale representation. Conventional continuum-scale models treat fractures as preferential flow paths, with their permeability evolving as a function (often, a cubic law) of the fracture aperture. This approach has the limitation that it oversimplifies flow within the fracture in its omission of pore scale effects while also assuming well-mixed conditions. More recently, pore-scale models along with advanced characterization techniques have allowed for accurate simulations of flow and reactive transport within the pore space (Molins et al., 2014, 2015). However, these models, even with high performance computing, are currently limited in their ability to treat tractable domain sizes (Steefel et al., 2013). Thus, there is a critical need to develop an adaptive modeling capability that can account for separate properties and processes, emergent and otherwise, in the fracture and the rock matrix at different spatial scales. Here we present an adaptive modeling capability that treats geochemical impacts on fracture evolution within a single multiscale framework. Model development makes use of the high performance simulation capability, Chombo-Crunch, leveraged by high resolution characterization and experiments. The modeling framework is based on the adaptive capability in Chombo

  11. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  12. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  13. Simulation of the landfall of the Deepwater Horizon oil on the shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boufadel, Michel C; Abdollahi-Nasab, Ali; Geng, Xiaolong; Galt, Jerry; Torlapati, Jagadish

    2014-08-19

    We conducted simulations of oil transport from the footprint of the Macondo Well on the water surface throughout the Gulf of Mexico, including deposition on the shorelines. We used the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the same parameter values and input adopted by NOAA following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout. We found that the disappearance rate of oil off the water surface was most likely around 20% per day based on satellite-based observations of the disappearance rate of oil detected on the sea surface after the DWH wellhead was capped. The simulations and oil mass estimates suggest that the mass of oil that reached the shorelines was between 10,000 and 30,000 tons, with an expected value of 22,000 tons. More than 90% of the oil deposition occurred on the Louisiana shorelines, and it occurred in two batches. Simulations revealed that capping the well after 2 weeks would have resulted in only 30% of the total oil depositing on the shorelines, while capping after 3 weeks would have resulted in 60% deposition. Additional delay in capping after 3 weeks would have averted little additional shoreline oiling over the ensuing 4 weeks.

  14. Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currin, C.; Davis, J.

    2017-12-01

    A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

  15. Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Lazarus

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

  16. A model for simulation of coupled microstructural and compositional evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tikare, Veena; Homer, Eric R.; Holm, Elizabeth A.

    2011-01-01

    The formation, transport and segregation of components in nuclear fuels fundamentally control their behavior, performance, longevity and safety. Most nuclear fuels enter service with a uniform composition consisting of a single phase with two or three components. Fission products form, introducing more components. The segregation and transport of the components is complicated by the underlying microstructure consisting of grains, pores, bubbles and more, which is evolving under temperature gradients during service. As they evolve, components and microstructural features interact such that composition affects microstructure and vice versa. The ability to predict the interdependent compositional and microstructural evolution in 3D as a function of burn-up would greatly improve the ability to design safe, high burn-up nuclear fuels. We present a model that combines elements of Potts Monte Carlo, MC, and the phase-field model to treat coupled microstructural-compositional evolution. This hybrid model uses an equation of state, EOS, based on the microstructural state and the composition. The microstructural portion uses the traditional MC EOS and the compositional portion uses the phase-field EOS: E hyb = N Σ i=1 (E v (q i ,C)+1/2 n Σ j=1 J(q i ,q j )) + ∫κ c (∇C) 2 dV. E v is the bulk free energy of each site i and J is the bond energy between neighboring sites i and j; thus, this term defines the microstructural interfacial energy. The last term is the compositional interfacial energy as defined in the traditional phase-field model. Evolution of coupled microstructure-composition is simulated by minimizing free energy in a path dependent manner. This model will be presented and will be demonstrated by applying it to evolution of nuclear fuels during service. (author)

  17. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF SHORELINE CHANGES IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2011-12-05

    Dec 5, 2011 ... The study recommended periodic monitoring of the coastal area on monthly and yearly bases. Keywords: Shoreline, GIS, Remote sensing, Bonny Island, Water transport, .... imported to Arcview GIS 3.3 for enhancement.

  18. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise

    2011-01-01

    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

  19. Modeling Evolution on Nearly Neutral Network Fitness Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakushkina, Tatiana; Saakian, David B.

    2017-08-01

    To describe virus evolution, it is necessary to define a fitness landscape. In this article, we consider the microscopic models with the advanced version of neutral network fitness landscapes. In this problem setting, we suppose a fitness difference between one-point mutation neighbors to be small. We construct a modification of the Wright-Fisher model, which is related to ordinary infinite population models with nearly neutral network fitness landscape at the large population limit. From the microscopic models in the realistic sequence space, we derive two versions of nearly neutral network models: with sinks and without sinks. We claim that the suggested model describes the evolutionary dynamics of RNA viruses better than the traditional Wright-Fisher model with few sequences.

  20. Entropy in the Tangled Nature Model of evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roach, Ty N.F.; Nulton, James; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Applications of entropy principles to evolution and ecology are of tantamount importance given the central role spatiotemporal structuring plays in both evolution and ecological succession. We obtain here a qualitative interpretation of the role of entropy in evolving ecological systems. Our...... interpretation is supported by mathematical arguments using simulation data generated by the Tangled Nature Model (TNM), a stochastic model of evolving ecologies. We define two types of configurational entropy and study their empirical time dependence obtained from the data. Both entropy measures increase...... logarithmically with time, while the entropy per individual decreases in time, in parallel with the growth of emergent structures visible from other aspects of the simulation. We discuss the biological relevance of these entropies to describe niche space and functional space of ecosystems, as well as their use...

  1. Research on bioremediation of oil polluted shorelines in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.

    1995-01-01

    Marine bioremediation research in Norway has been directed towards the use of fertilizers on arctic shorelines and ice infested waters. In addition from the focus on fertilizers, the research has paid considerable attention to nutrient dynamics, and the influence of microfauna such as bacterial and fungal grazers on the dynamics of macronutrients. The interactions between microbial and physical processes on the shorelines, between photochemical processes and nutrient dynamics, have also been addressed. 29 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Long range anti-ferromagnetic spin model for prebiotic evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nokura, Kazuo

    2003-01-01

    I propose and discuss a fitness function for one-dimensional binary monomer sequences of macromolecules for prebiotic evolution. The fitness function is defined by the free energy of polymers in the high temperature random coil phase. With repulsive interactions among the same kind of monomers, the free energy in the high temperature limit becomes the energy function of the one-dimensional long range anti-ferromagnetic spin model, which is shown to have a dynamical phase transition and glassy states

  3. Nonlinear evolution inclusions arising from phase change models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Colli, P.; Krejčí, Pavel; Rocca, E.; Sprekels, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 4 (2007), s. 1067-1098 ISSN 0011-4642 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/02/1058 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : nonlinear and nonlocal evolution equations * Cahn-Hilliard type dynamics * phase transitions models Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.155, year: 2007 http://www.dml.cz/bitstream/handle/10338.dmlcz/128228/CzechMathJ_57-2007-4_2.pdf

  4. Geochemical modelling of groundwater evolution using chemical equilibrium codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitkaenen, P.; Pirhonen, V.

    1991-01-01

    Geochemical equilibrium codes are a modern tool in studying interaction between groundwater and solid phases. The most common used programs and application subjects are shortly presented in this article. The main emphasis is laid on the approach method of using calculated results in evaluating groundwater evolution in hydrogeological system. At present in geochemical equilibrium modelling also kinetic as well as hydrologic constrains along a flow path are taken into consideration

  5. A model for evolution of overlapping community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Rituraj; Biswal, Bibhu

    2017-05-01

    A model is proposed for the evolution of network topology in social networks with overlapping community structure. Starting from an initial community structure that is defined in terms of group affiliations, the model postulates that the subsequent growth and loss of connections is similar to the Hebbian learning and unlearning in the brain and is governed by two dominant factors: the strength and frequency of interaction between the members, and the degree of overlap between different communities. The temporal evolution from an initial community structure to the current network topology can be described based on these two parameters. It is possible to quantify the growth occurred so far and predict the final stationary state to which the network is likely to evolve. Applications in epidemiology or the spread of email virus in a computer network as well as finding specific target nodes to control it are envisaged. While facing the challenge of collecting and analyzing large-scale time-resolved data on social groups and communities one faces the most basic questions: how do communities evolve in time? This work aims to address this issue by developing a mathematical model for the evolution of community networks and studying it through computer simulation.

  6. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-01-30

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. The Institutional Approach for Modeling the Evolution of Human Societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Simon T

    2018-01-01

    Artificial life is concerned with understanding the dynamics of human societies. A defining feature of any society is its institutions. However, defining exactly what an institution is has proven difficult, with authors often talking past each other. This article presents a dynamic model of institutions, which views them as political game forms that generate the rules of a group's economic interactions. Unlike most prior work, the framework presented here allows for the construction of explicit models of the evolution of institutional rules. It takes account of the fact that group members are likely to try to create rules that benefit themselves. Following from this, it allows us to determine the conditions under which self-interested individuals will create institutional rules that support cooperation-for example, that prevent a tragedy of the commons. The article finishes with an example of how a model of the evolution of institutional rewards and punishments for promoting cooperation can be created. It is intended that this framework will allow artificial life researchers to examine how human groups can themselves create conditions for cooperation. This will help provide a better understanding of historical human social evolution, and facilitate the resolution of pressing societal social dilemmas.

  8. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  9. SIGNUM: A Matlab, TIN-based landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refice, A.; Giachetta, E.; Capolongo, D.

    2012-08-01

    Several numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed to date, and many are available as open source codes. Most are written in efficient programming languages such as Fortran or C, but often require additional code efforts to plug in to more user-friendly data analysis and/or visualization tools to ease interpretation and scientific insight. In this paper, we present an effort to port a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution directly into a high-level language and data analysis environment such as Matlab. SIGNUM (acronym for Simple Integrated Geomorphological Numerical Model) is an independent and self-contained Matlab, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales. SIGNUM is presently capable of simulating hillslope processes such as linear and nonlinear diffusion, fluvial incision into bedrock, spatially varying surface uplift which can be used to simulate changes in base level, thrust and faulting, as well as effects of climate changes. Although based on accepted and well-known processes and algorithms in its present version, it is built with a modular structure, which allows to easily modify and upgrade the simulated physical processes to suite virtually any user needs. The code is conceived as an open-source project, and is thus an ideal tool for both research and didactic purposes, thanks to the high-level nature of the Matlab environment and its popularity among the scientific community. In this paper the simulation code is presented together with some simple examples of surface evolution, and guidelines for development of new modules and algorithms are proposed.

  10. A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2015-11-01

    Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author

  11. Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corentin Vande Kerckhove

    Full Text Available Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861, it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants' past behaviour. Several situations reflecting data availability are compared. When the data is scarce, the data from previous participants is used to predict how a new participant will behave. Judgment revision includes unpredictable variations which limit the potential for prediction. A first measure of unpredictability is proposed. The measure is based on a specific control experiment. More than two thirds of the prediction errors are found to occur due to unpredictability of the human judgment revision process rather than to model imperfection.

  12. Constraints and entropy in a model of network evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, Philip; Wakeman, Ian; Parisis, George; Dawes, Jonathan; Kiss, István Z.

    2017-11-01

    Barabási-Albert's "Scale Free" model is the starting point for much of the accepted theory of the evolution of real world communication networks. Careful comparison of the theory with a wide range of real world networks, however, indicates that the model is in some cases, only a rough approximation to the dynamical evolution of real networks. In particular, the exponent γ of the power law distribution of degree is predicted by the model to be exactly 3, whereas in a number of real world networks it has values between 1.2 and 2.9. In addition, the degree distributions of real networks exhibit cut offs at high node degree, which indicates the existence of maximal node degrees for these networks. In this paper we propose a simple extension to the "Scale Free" model, which offers better agreement with the experimental data. This improvement is satisfying, but the model still does not explain why the attachment probabilities should favor high degree nodes, or indeed how constraints arrive in non-physical networks. Using recent advances in the analysis of the entropy of graphs at the node level we propose a first principles derivation for the "Scale Free" and "constraints" model from thermodynamic principles, and demonstrate that both preferential attachment and constraints could arise as a natural consequence of the second law of thermodynamics.

  13. Calibration of a stochastic health evolution model using NHIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Zhisheng

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents and calibrates an individual's stochastic health evolution model. In this health evolution model, the uncertainty of health incidents is described by a stochastic process with a finite number of possible outcomes. We construct a comprehensive health status index (HSI) to describe an individual's health status, as well as a health risk factor system (RFS) to classify individuals into different risk groups. Based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and the method of nonlinear least squares fitting, model calibration is formulated in terms of two mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data, the model is calibrated for specific risk groups. Longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is used to validate the calibrated model, which displays good validation properties. The end goal of this paper is to provide a model and methodology, whose output can serve as a crucial component of decision support for strategic planning of health related financing and risk management.

  14. Geometrothermodynamic model for the evolution of the Universe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruber, Christine; Quevedo, Hernando, E-mail: christine.gruber@correo.nucleares.unam.mx, E-mail: quevedo@nucleares.unam.mx [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, AP 70543, México, DF 04510 (Mexico)

    2017-07-01

    Using the formalism of geometrothermodynamics to derive a fundamental thermodynamic equation, we construct a cosmological model in the framework of relativistic cosmology. In a first step, we describe a system without thermodynamic interaction, and show it to be equivalent to the standard ΛCDM paradigm. The second step includes thermodynamic interaction and produces a model consistent with the main features of inflation. With the proposed fundamental equation we are thus able to describe all the known epochs in the evolution of our Universe, starting from the inflationary phase.

  15. A Chemical Evolution Model for the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Zhen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fornax is the brightest Milky Way (MW dwarf spheroidal galaxy and its star formation history (SFH has been derived from observations. We estimate the time evolution of its gas mass and net inflow and outflow rates from the SFH usinga simple star formation law that relates the star formation rate to the gas mass. We present a chemical evolution model on a 2D mass grid with supernovae (SNe as sources of metal enrichment. We find that a key parameter controlling the enrichment is the mass Mx of the gas to mix with the ejecta from each SN. The choice of Mx depends on the evolution of SN remnants and on the global gas dynamics. It differs between the two types of SNe involved and between the periods before and after Fornax became an MW satellite at time t = tsat. Our results indicate that due to the global gas outflow at t > tsat, part of the ejecta from each SN may directly escape from Fornax. Sample results from our model are presented and compared with data.

  16. Recent Niger Delta shoreline response to Niger River hydrology: Conflict between forces of Nature and Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Asiwaju-Bello, Yinusa Ayodele; Anifowose, Adeleye Yekini Biodun

    2018-03-01

    The Niger River Delta is a prolific hydrocarbon province and a mega-delta of economic and environmental relevance. To understand patterns of its recent shoreline evolution (1923-2013) in response to the Niger River hydrology, and establish the role played by forces of Nature and Human, available topographic and satellite remote sensing data, combined with hydro-climatic (rainfall and runoff) data were analyzed. Results indicate that the entire delta coastline dramatically receded: 82% of the >400 km-long coast retreated, during the period 1950-1987; and 69% between 2007 and 2012. Prior to 1950, there was a continuation of seaward advancement along 53-74% of the delta coast. The 1950-1987 shoreline recession coincided with occurrences of two major events in the Niger River basin; these are downward trends in hydro-climatic conditions (the great droughts of the 1970s-1980s), and dam construction on the Lower Niger River at Kainji (1964-1968). The 2007-2012 event corresponded with the extensive channel dredging during 2009-2012 in the Lower Niger River from the coastal town of Warri in the south to Baro in the north. Remarkably, the largest net shoreline advancement recorded in 74% of the entire delta area occurred within a year (2012-2013), which we link to increased sediment supply to the coast caused by the '2012' floods, adjudged the worst floods in the entire Niger River Basin in the last few decades. With both anthropogenic and environmental factors inducing delta evolution, only innovative river and coastal management can determine the fortune of the future coastal development of the Niger Delta.

  17. Firework Model: Time Dependent Spectral Evolution of GRB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbiellini, Guido; Longo, Francesco; Ghirlanda, G.; Celotti, A.; Bosnjak, Z.

    2004-09-01

    The energetics of the long duration GRB phenomenon is compared with models of a rotating BH in a strong magnetic field generated by an accreting torus. The GRB energy emission is attributed to magnetic field vacuum breakdown that gives origin to a e +/- fireball. Its subsequent evolution is hypothesized in analogy with the in-flight decay of an elementary particle. An anisotropy in the fireball propagation is thus naturally produced. The recent discovery in some GRB of an initial phase characterized by a thermal spectrum could be interpreted as the photon emission of the fireball photosphere when it becomes transparent. In particular, the temporal evolution of the emission can be explained as the effect of a radiative deceleration of the out-moving ejecta.

  18. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  19. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bakker

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG. This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter

  20. Biological conditions of shorelines following the Exxon Valdez spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoker, S.W.; Neff, J.M.; Schroeder, T.R.; McCormick, D.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report is based primarily on survey results from Prince William Sound, where most of the heavy shoreline oiling occurred. Although not strictly quantitative, the shoreline surveys provide an unprecedented, broad base of professional observations covering the entire spill-affected area from 1989 through 1992 by which to evaluate spill impacts and recovery. Shoreline surveys documented that the extent of shoreline oiling declined substantially from 1989 to 1992. In 1989, oil was found on about 16 percent of the 3,000 miles of shoreline in Prince William Sound; by the spring of 1991, oil was found on only about 2 percent of the shoreline; and by May of 1992, on only 0.2 percent. In all years, most of this oil was located in the biologically least productive upper intertidal and supratidal zones. In both 1991 and 1992, small, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found on some boulder/cobble beaches. Most of these deposits were also located in the upper intertidal and were usually buried beneath clean sediments. In almost all cases, the condition of intertidal biological communities improved correspondingly from 1989 to 1992. By the spring of 1991, recovery appeared to be well under way on virtually all previously oiled shores, with species composition, abundance, and diversity levels usually comparable to those of nearby shores that were not oiled in 1989. Recruitment of intertidal plants and animals was observed as early as the summer of 1989, and increasingly through 1991 and 1992. Recruitment was evident even in areas with remnant deposits of surface and subsurface oil, indicating that toxicity levels of the oil had declined substantially and that, in most cases, the residual oil no longer interfered with biological recovery. Observations of birds and marine mammals on or near shorelines surveyed during 1991 and 1992 confirmed that species present before the spill were still present and were feeding and reproducing in areas affected by oil in 1989

  1. Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2009-10-01

    We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by

  2. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Paasse, T. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  3. Chempy: A flexible chemical evolution model for abundance fitting. Do the Sun's abundances alone constrain chemical evolution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybizki, Jan; Just, Andreas; Rix, Hans-Walter

    2017-09-01

    Elemental abundances of stars are the result of the complex enrichment history of their galaxy. Interpretation of observed abundances requires flexible modeling tools to explore and quantify the information about Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) stored in such data. Here we present Chempy, a newly developed code for GCE modeling, representing a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of five to ten parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: for example, the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF), and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Unlike established approaches, Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets. It is essentially a chemical evolution fitting tool. We straightforwardly extend Chempy to a multi-zone scheme. As an illustrative application, we show that interesting parameter constraints result from only the ages and elemental abundances of the Sun, Arcturus, and the present-day interstellar medium (ISM). For the first time, we use such information to infer the IMF parameter via GCE modeling, where we properly marginalize over nuisance parameters and account for different yield sets. We find that 11.6+ 2.1-1.6% of the IMF explodes as core-collapse supernova (CC-SN), compatible with Salpeter (1955, ApJ, 121, 161). We also constrain the incidence of SN Ia per 103M⊙ to 0.5-1.4. At the same time, this Chempy application shows persistent discrepancies between predicted and observed abundances for some elements, irrespective of the chosen yield set. These cannot be remedied by any variations of Chempy's parameters and could be an indication of missing nucleosynthetic channels. Chempy could be a powerful tool to confront predictions from stellar

  4. A finite element model for the quench front evolution problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Folescu, J.; Galeao, A.C.N.R.; Carmo, E.G.D. do.

    1985-01-01

    A model for the rewetting problem associated with the loss of coolant accident in a PWR reactor is proposed. A variational formulation for the time-dependent heat conduction problem on fuel rod cladding is used, and appropriate boundary conditions are assumed in order to simulate the thermal interaction between the fuel rod cladding and the fluid. A numerical procedure which uses the finite element method for the spatial discretization and a Crank-Nicolson-like method for the step-by-step integration is developed. Some numerical results are presented showing the quench front evolution and its stationary profile. (Author) [pt

  5. Generative Models in Deep Learning: Constraints for Galaxy Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, Maximilian Dennis; Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Weigel, Anna K.

    2018-01-01

    New techniques are essential to make advances in the field of galaxy evolution. Recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence and machine learning have proven that these tools can be applied to problems far more complex than simple image recognition. We use these purely data driven approaches to investigate the process of star formation quenching. We show that Variational Autoencoders provide a powerful method to forward model the process of galaxy quenching. Our results imply that simple changes in specific star formation rate and bulge to disk ratio cannot fully describe the properties of the quenched population.

  6. Modeling the Evolution of Female Meiotic Drive in Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Hall

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Autosomal drivers violate Mendel’s law of segregation in that they are overrepresented in gametes of heterozygous parents. For drivers to be polymorphic within populations rather than fixing, their transmission advantage must be offset by deleterious effects on other fitness components. In this paper, we develop an analytical model for the evolution of autosomal drivers that is motivated by the neocentromere drive system found in maize. In particular, we model both the transmission advantage and deleterious fitness effects on seed viability, pollen viability, seed to adult survival mediated by maternal genotype, and seed to adult survival mediated by offspring genotype. We derive general, biologically intuitive conditions for the four most likely evolutionary outcomes and discuss the expected evolution of autosomal drivers given these conditions. Finally, we determine the expected equilibrium allele frequencies predicted by the model given recent estimates of fitness components for all relevant genotypes and show that the predicted equilibrium is within the range observed in maize land races for levels of drive at the low end of what has been observed.

  7. Modeling multiscale evolution of numerous voids in shocked brittle material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yin; Wang, Wenqiang; He, Hongliang; Lu, Tiecheng

    2014-04-01

    The influence of the evolution of numerous voids on macroscopic properties of materials is a multiscale problem that challenges computational research. A shock-wave compression model for brittle material, which can obtain both microscopic evolution and macroscopic shock properties, was developed using discrete element methods (lattice model). Using a model interaction-parameter-mapping procedure, qualitative features, as well as trends in the calculated shock-wave profiles, are shown to agree with experimental results. The shock wave splits into an elastic wave and a deformation wave in porous brittle materials, indicating significant shock plasticity. Void collapses in the deformation wave were the natural reason for volume shrinkage and deformation. However, media slippage and rotation deformations indicated by complex vortex patterns composed of relative velocity vectors were also confirmed as an important source of shock plasticity. With increasing pressure, the contribution from slippage deformation to the final plastic strain increased. Porosity was found to determine the amplitude of the elastic wave; porosity and shock stress together determine propagation speed of the deformation wave, as well as stress and strain on the final equilibrium state. Thus, shock behaviors of porous brittle material can be systematically designed for specific applications.

  8. Anthropogenic effects on shoreface and shoreline changes: Input from a multi-method analysis, Agadir Bay, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouiche, Ismail; Daoudi, Lahcen; Anthony, Edward J.; Sedrati, Mouncef; Ziane, Elhassane; Harti, Abderrazak; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In many situations, the links between shoreline fluctuations and larger-scale coastal change embracing the shoreface are not always well understood. In particular, meso-scale (years to decades) sand exchanges between the shoreface and the shoreline, considered as important on many wave-dominated coasts, are rather poorly understood and difficult to identify. Coastal systems where sediment transport is perturbed by engineering interventions on the shoreline and shoreface commonly provide fine examples liable to throw light on these links. This is especially so where shoreface bathymetric datasets, which are generally lacking, are collected over time, enabling more or less fine resolution of the meso-scale coastal sediment budget. Agadir Bay and the city of Agadir together form one of the two most important economic development poles on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. Using a combined methodological approach based on wave-current modelling, bathymetric chart-differencing, determination of shoreline fluctuations, and beach topographic surveying, we highlight the close links between variations in the bed of the inner shoreface and the bay shoreline involving both cross-shore and longshore sand transport pathways, sediment budget variations and new sediment cell patterns. We show that the significant changes that have affected the bay shoreline and shoreface since 1978 clearly reflect anthropogenic impacts, notably blocking of alongshore sand transport by Agadir harbour, completed in 1988, and the foundations of which lie well beyond the depth of wave closure. Construction of the harbour has led to the creation of a rapidly accreting beach against an original portion of rocky shoreline updrift and to a net sand loss exceeding 145,000 m3/year between 1978 and 2012 over 8.5 km2of the bay shoreface downdrift. Shoreline retreat has been further exacerbated by sand extraction from aeolian dunes and by flattening of these dunes to make space for tourist infrastructure. Digital

  9. Six-vertex model and Schramm-Loewner evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyon, Richard; Miller, Jason; Sheffield, Scott; Wilson, David B.

    2017-05-01

    Square ice is a statistical mechanics model for two-dimensional ice, widely believed to have a conformally invariant scaling limit. We associate a Peano (space-filling) curve to a square ice configuration, and more generally to a so-called six-vertex model configuration, and argue that its scaling limit is a space-filling version of the random fractal curve SL E κ, Schramm-Loewner evolution with parameter κ , where 4 <κ ≤12 +8 √{2 } . For square ice, κ =12 . At the "free-fermion point" of the six-vertex model, κ =8 +4 √{3 } . These unusual values lie outside the classical interval 2 ≤κ ≤8 .

  10. Phase-field modelling of microstructural evolution and properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jingzhi

    As one of the most powerful techniques in computational materials science, the diffuse-interface phase-field model has been widely employed for simulating various meso-scale microstructural evolution processes. The main purpose of this thesis is to develop a quantitative phase-field model for predicting microstructures and properties in real alloy systems which can be linked to existing thermodynamic/kinetic databases and parameters obtained from experimental measurements or first-principle calculations. To achieve this goal; many factors involved in complicated real systems are investigated, many of which are often simplified or ignored in existing models, e.g. the dependence of diffusional atomic mobility and elastic constants on composition. Efficient numerical techniques must be developed to solve those partial differential equations that are involved in modelling microstructural evolutions and properties. In this thesis, different spectral methods were proposed for the time-dependent phase-field kinetic equations and diffusion equations. For solving the elastic equilibrium equation with the consideration of elastic inhomogeneity, a conjugate gradient method was utilized. The numerical approaches developed were generally found to be more accurate and efficient than conventional approach such as finite difference method. A composition-dependent Cahn-Hilliard equation was solved by using a semi-implicit Fourier-spectral method. It was shown that the morphological evolutions in bulk-diffusion-controlled coarsening and interface-diffusion-controlled developed similar patterns and scaling behaviors. For bulk-diffusion-controlled coarsening, a cubic growth law was obeyed in the scaling regime, whereas a fourth power growth law was observed for interface-diffusion-controlled coarsening. The characteristics of a microstructure under the influence of elastic energy depend on elastic properties such as elastic anisotropy, lattice mismatch, elastic inhomogeneity and

  11. Modeling the Evolution of Beliefs Using an Attentional Focus Mechanism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrije Marković

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available For making decisions in everyday life we often have first to infer the set of environmental features that are relevant for the current task. Here we investigated the computational mechanisms underlying the evolution of beliefs about the relevance of environmental features in a dynamical and noisy environment. For this purpose we designed a probabilistic Wisconsin card sorting task (WCST with belief solicitation, in which subjects were presented with stimuli composed of multiple visual features. At each moment in time a particular feature was relevant for obtaining reward, and participants had to infer which feature was relevant and report their beliefs accordingly. To test the hypothesis that attentional focus modulates the belief update process, we derived and fitted several probabilistic and non-probabilistic behavioral models, which either incorporate a dynamical model of attentional focus, in the form of a hierarchical winner-take-all neuronal network, or a diffusive model, without attention-like features. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the most likely generative model of subjects' behavior and found that attention-like features in the behavioral model are essential for explaining subjects' responses. Furthermore, we demonstrate a method for integrating both connectionist and Bayesian models of decision making within a single framework that allowed us to infer hidden belief processes of human subjects.

  12. Entropy in the Tangled Nature Model of Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ty N. F. Roach

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Applications of entropy principles to evolution and ecology are of tantamount importance given the central role spatiotemporal structuring plays in both evolution and ecological succession. We obtain here a qualitative interpretation of the role of entropy in evolving ecological systems. Our interpretation is supported by mathematical arguments using simulation data generated by the Tangled Nature Model (TNM, a stochastic model of evolving ecologies. We define two types of configurational entropy and study their empirical time dependence obtained from the data. Both entropy measures increase logarithmically with time, while the entropy per individual decreases in time, in parallel with the growth of emergent structures visible from other aspects of the simulation. We discuss the biological relevance of these entropies to describe niche space and functional space of ecosystems, as well as their use in characterizing the number of taxonomic configurations compatible with different niche partitioning and functionality. The TNM serves as an illustrative example of how to calculate and interpret these entropies, which are, however, also relevant to real ecosystems, where they can be used to calculate the number of functional and taxonomic configurations that an ecosystem can realize.

  13. Modelling of Damage Evolution in Braided Composites: Recent Developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Roy, Anish; Silberschmidt, Vadim V.; Chen, Zhong

    2017-12-01

    Composites reinforced with woven or braided textiles exhibit high structural stability and excellent damage tolerance thanks to yarn interlacing. With their high stiffness-to-weight and strength-to-weight ratios, braided composites are attractive for aerospace and automotive components as well as sports protective equipment. In these potential applications, components are typically subjected to multi-directional static, impact and fatigue loadings. To enhance material analysis and design for such applications, understanding mechanical behaviour of braided composites and development of predictive capabilities becomes crucial. Significant progress has been made in recent years in development of new modelling techniques allowing elucidation of static and dynamic responses of braided composites. However, because of their unique interlacing geometric structure and complicated failure modes, prediction of damage initiation and its evolution in components is still a challenge. Therefore, a comprehensive literature analysis is presented in this work focused on a review of the state-of-the-art progressive damage analysis of braided composites with finite-element simulations. Recently models employed in the studies on mechanical behaviour, impact response and fatigue analyses of braided composites are presented systematically. This review highlights the importance, advantages and limitations of as-applied failure criteria and damage evolution laws for yarns and composite unit cells. In addition, this work provides a good reference for future research on FE simulations of braided composites.

  14. An integrated approach to shoreline mapping for spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; LeBlanc, S.R.; Percy, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A desktop mapping package was introduced which has the capability to provide consistent and standardized application of mapping and data collection/generation techniques. Its application in oil spill cleanup was discussed. The data base can be updated easily as new information becomes available. This provides a response team with access to a wide range of information that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. Standard terms and definitions and shoreline segmentation procedures are part of the system to describe the shore-zone character and shore-zone oiling conditions. The program that is in place for Atlantic Canada involves the integration of (1) Environment Canada's SCAT methodology in pre-spill data generation, (2) shoreline segmentation, (3) response management by objectives, (4) Environment Canada's national sensitivity mapping program, and (5) Environment Canada's field guide for the protection and treatment of oiled shorelines. 7 refs., 6 figs

  15. Random unitary evolution model of quantum Darwinism with pure decoherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanesković, Nenad

    2015-10-01

    We study the behavior of Quantum Darwinism [W.H. Zurek, Nat. Phys. 5, 181 (2009)] within the iterative, random unitary operations qubit-model of pure decoherence [J. Novotný, G. Alber, I. Jex, New J. Phys. 13, 053052 (2011)]. We conclude that Quantum Darwinism, which describes the quantum mechanical evolution of an open system S from the point of view of its environment E, is not a generic phenomenon, but depends on the specific form of input states and on the type of S-E-interactions. Furthermore, we show that within the random unitary model the concept of Quantum Darwinism enables one to explicitly construct and specify artificial input states of environment E that allow to store information about an open system S of interest with maximal efficiency.

  16. Heavy ion collision evolution modeling with ECHO-QGP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolando, V.; Inghirami, G.; Beraudo, A.; Del Zanna, L.; Becattini, F.; Chandra, V.; De Pace, A.; Nardi, M.

    2014-11-01

    We present a numerical code modeling the evolution of the medium formed in relativistic heavy ion collisions, ECHO-QGP. The code solves relativistic hydrodynamics in (3 + 1)D, with dissipative terms included within the framework of Israel-Stewart theory; it can work both in Minkowskian and in Bjorken coordinates. Initial conditions are provided through an implementation of the Glauber model (both Optical and Monte Carlo), while freezeout and particle generation are based on the Cooper-Frye prescription. The code is validated against several test problems and shows remarkable stability and accuracy with the combination of a conservative (shock-capturing) approach and the high-order methods employed. In particular it beautifully agrees with the semi-analytic solution known as Gubser flow, both in the ideal and in the viscous Israel-Stewart case, up to very large times and without any ad hoc tuning of the algorithm.

  17. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  18. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  19. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  20. A probabilistic model for the evolution of RNA structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes Ian

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For the purposes of finding and aligning noncoding RNA gene- and cis-regulatory elements in multiple-genome datasets, it is useful to be able to derive multi-sequence stochastic grammars (and hence multiple alignment algorithms systematically, starting from hypotheses about the various kinds of random mutation event and their rates. Results Here, we consider a highly simplified evolutionary model for RNA, called "The TKF91 Structure Tree" (following Thorne, Kishino and Felsenstein's 1991 model of sequence evolution with indels, which we have implemented for pairwise alignment as proof of principle for such an approach. The model, its strengths and its weaknesses are discussed with reference to four examples of functional ncRNA sequences: a riboswitch (guanine, a zipcode (nanos, a splicing factor (U4 and a ribozyme (RNase P. As shown by our visualisations of posterior probability matrices, the selected examples illustrate three different signatures of natural selection that are highly characteristic of ncRNA: (i co-ordinated basepair substitutions, (ii co-ordinated basepair indels and (iii whole-stem indels. Conclusions Although all three types of mutation "event" are built into our model, events of type (i and (ii are found to be better modeled than events of type (iii. Nevertheless, we hypothesise from the model's performance on pairwise alignments that it would form an adequate basis for a prototype multiple alignment and genefinding tool.

  1. The metastable dynamo model of stellar rotational evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a new empirical model for the rotational evolution of Sun-like stars—those with surface convection zones and non-convective interior regions. Previous models do not match the morphology of observed (rotation period)-color diagrams, notably the existence of a relatively long-lived 'C-sequence' of fast rotators first identified by Barnes. This failure motivates the Metastable Dynamo Model (MDM) described here. The MDM posits that stars are born with their magnetic dynamos operating in a mode that couples very weakly to the stellar wind, so their (initially very short) rotation periods at first change little with time. At some point, this mode spontaneously and randomly changes to a strongly coupled mode, the transition occurring with a mass-dependent lifetime that is of the order of 100 Myr. I show that with this assumption, one can obtain good fits to observations of young clusters, particularly for ages of 150-200 Myr. Previous models and the MDM both give qualitative agreement with the morphology of the slower-rotating 'I-sequence' stars, but none of them have been shown to accurately reproduce the stellar-mass-dependent evolution of the I-sequence stars, especially for clusters older than a few hundred million years. I discuss observational experiments that can test aspects of the MDM, and speculate that the physics underlying the MDM may be related to other situations described in the literature, in which stellar dynamos may have a multi-modal character.

  2. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  3. Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

    2011-08-01

    The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

  4. A unifying model of genome evolution under parsimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paten, Benedict; Zerbino, Daniel R; Hickey, Glenn; Haussler, David

    2014-06-19

    Parsimony and maximum likelihood methods of phylogenetic tree estimation and parsimony methods for genome rearrangements are central to the study of genome evolution yet to date they have largely been pursued in isolation. We present a data structure called a history graph that offers a practical basis for the analysis of genome evolution. It conceptually simplifies the study of parsimonious evolutionary histories by representing both substitutions and double cut and join (DCJ) rearrangements in the presence of duplications. The problem of constructing parsimonious history graphs thus subsumes related maximum parsimony problems in the fields of phylogenetic reconstruction and genome rearrangement. We show that tractable functions can be used to define upper and lower bounds on the minimum number of substitutions and DCJ rearrangements needed to explain any history graph. These bounds become tight for a special type of unambiguous history graph called an ancestral variation graph (AVG), which constrains in its combinatorial structure the number of operations required. We finally demonstrate that for a given history graph G, a finite set of AVGs describe all parsimonious interpretations of G, and this set can be explored with a few sampling moves. This theoretical study describes a model in which the inference of genome rearrangements and phylogeny can be unified under parsimony.

  5. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

  6. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

  7. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyang Fang

    Full Text Available Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

  8. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2017-09-25

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

  9. Archaeological sites along the Gujarat coast: Proxies to decipher the past shoreline

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.; Gaur, A; Sundaresh

    on northwestern Saurashtra coast presents a classical case of shoreline shift in recent past. The paper discusses the archaeological evidences to decipher the past shoreline of the Saurashtra region...

  10. 78 FR 33051 - Non-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16) Iberia, Jefferson...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Natural Resources Conservation Service Non-Rock Alternatives to...-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16), Iberia, Jefferson, and... and environmental limitations preclude the use of rock structures. The shoreline protection systems...

  11. Unified model for vortex-string network evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, C.J.A.P.; Moore, J.N.; Shellard, E.P.S.

    2004-01-01

    We describe and numerically test the velocity-dependent one-scale string evolution model, a simple analytic approach describing a string network with the averaged correlation length and velocity. We show that it accurately reproduces the large-scale behavior (in particular the scaling laws) of numerical simulations of both Goto-Nambu and field theory string networks. We explicitly demonstrate the relation between the high-energy physics approach and the damped and nonrelativistic limits which are relevant for condensed matter physics. We also reproduce experimental results in this context and show that the vortex-string density is significantly reduced by loop production, an effect not included in the usual 'coarse-grained' approach

  12. Thermal evolution of the Schwinger model with matrix product operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banuls, M.C.; Cirac, J.I.; Cichy, K.; Jansen, K.; Saito, H.

    2015-10-01

    We demonstrate the suitability of tensor network techniques for describing the thermal evolution of lattice gauge theories. As a benchmark case, we have studied the temperature dependence of the chiral condensate in the Schwinger model, using matrix product operators to approximate the thermal equilibrium states for finite system sizes with non-zero lattice spacings. We show how these techniques allow for reliable extrapolations in bond dimension, step width, system size and lattice spacing, and for a systematic estimation and control of all error sources involved in the calculation. The reached values of the lattice spacing are small enough to capture the most challenging region of high temperatures and the final results are consistent with the analytical prediction by Sachs and Wipf over a broad temperature range.

  13. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  14. 15 CFR 923.25 - Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning... erosion/mitigation planning. (a) The management program must include a planning process for assessing the... planning process may be within the broader context of coastal hazard mitigation planning. (b) The basic...

  15. Pre-spill shoreline mapping in Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Lamarche, A.; Reimer, P.D.; Marchant, S.O.; O'Brien, D.K.

    2003-01-01

    A long-term shoreline mapping program has been initiated in Prince William Sound, Alaska, to generate pre-spill data to assist in the planning activities for oil spill response in the area. Low-altitude aerial videotape surveys and video images form the basis for the mapping effort. The coast was initially divided into alongshore segments. The physical shore-zone is relatively homogeneous within each segment. A pre-spill Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) database, using the ShoreData software, was created based on this initial detailed mapping. The SCAT field teams are therefore equipped with a detailed analysis of the shore-zone character. The same information was also used to develop a separate database for use by planning and response operations groups. The data is entered into the Graphical Resource Database (GRD), and a Geographic Information System (GIS). A simplified characterization of the primary features of each segment is then made available through interpretation of the data. In the event of an oil spill, the SCAT data in the ShoreData files can be combined with field data on shoreline oiling conditions using a second software package called ShoreAccess R which provides summaries of the main parameters required by the planning group. It can also be used as a data storage and management tool. As part of this program, more than 1700 kilometres of shoreline in Prince William Sound have already been mapped. 24 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  16. Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... coastal environment and affected the socio-economic life of local populations, threatened cultural heritage and hindered coastal tourism development. This paper assessed the extent of shoreline recession and its effects on buildings and infrastructure along Ghana's coastline through a study of the Nkontompo Community ...

  17. Shoreline stability in the vicinity of Cochin Harbour

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Vethamony, P.

    , showing stability over a period of one year. The growth of shoreline north of Cochin harbour channel takes place at the cost of sediment that should have otherwise by-passed the estuarine mouth. During the southwest monsoon the development of opposing...

  18. Subtidal Bathymetric Changes by Shoreline Armoring Removal and Restoration Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, J.

    2016-12-01

    The Salish Sea, a region with a diverse coastline, is altered by anthropogenic shoreline modifications such as seawalls. In recent years, local organizations have moved to restore these shorelines. Current research monitors the changes restoration projects have on the upper beach, lower beach, and intertidal, however little research exists to record possible negative effects on the subtidal. The purpose of this research is to utilize multibeam sonar bathymetric data to analyze possible changes to the seafloor structure of the subtidal in response to shoreline modification and to investigate potential ecosystem consequences of shoreline alteration. The subtidal is home to several species including eelgrass (Zostera marina). Eelgrass is an important species in Puget Sound as it provides many key ecosystem functions including providing habitat for a wide variety of organisms, affecting the physics of waves, and sediment transport in the subtidal. Thus bathymetric changes could impact eelgrass growth and reduce its ability to provide crucial ecosystem services. Three Washington state study sites of completed shoreline restoration projects were used to generate data from areas of varied topographic classification, Seahurst Park in Burien, the Snohomish County Nearshore Restoration Project in Everett, and Cornet Bay State Park on Whidbey Island. Multibeam sonar data was acquired using a Konsberg EM 2040 system and post-processed in Caris HIPS to generate a base surface of one-meter resolution. It was then imported into the ArcGIS software suite for the generation of spatial metrics. Measurements of change were calculated through a comparison of historical and generated data. Descriptive metrics generated included, total elevation change, percent area changed, and a transition matrix of positive and negative change. Additionally, pattern metrics such as, surface roughness, and Bathymetric Position Index (BPI), were calculated. The comparison of historical data to new data

  19. Linking Backbarrier Lacustrine Stratigraphy with Spatial Dynamics of Shoreline Retreat in a Rapidly Subsiding Region of the Mississippi River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, M.; Liu, K. B.; Bianchette, T. A.; Yao, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The shoreline along the northern Gulf of Mexico is rapidly retreating as coastal features of abandoned Mississippi River delta complexes erode and subside. Bay Champagne is located in the Caminada-Moreau headland, a region of shoreline west of the currently active delta that has one of the highest rates of retreat and land loss. As a result, this site has transitioned from a stable, circular inland lake several kilometers from the shore to a frequently perturbed, semi-circular backbarrier lagoon, making it ideal to study the environmental effects of progressive land loss. Analyses of clastic layers in a series of sediment cores collected at this site over the past decade indicate the lake was less perturbed in the past and has become increasingly more sensitive to marine incursion events caused by tropical cyclones. Geochemical and pollen analyses of these cores also reveal profound changes in environmental and chemical conditions in Bay Champagne over the past century as the shoreline has retreated. Through relating stratigraphy to spatial changes observed from satellite imagery, this study attempts to identify the tipping point at which Bay Champagne began the transition from an inland lake to a backbarrier environment, and to determine the rate at which this transition occurred. Results will be used to develop a model of the environmental transition experienced by a rapidly retreating coastline and to predict how other regions of the Mississippi River deltaic system could respond to future shoreline retreat.

  20. 36 CFR 327.30 - Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... ADMINISTERED BY THE CHIEF OF ENGINEERS § 327.30 Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects. (a) Purpose. The... this regulation, shoreline management plans are not required for those projects where construction was... approval, one copy of each project Shoreline Management Plan will be forwarded to HQUSACE (CECW-ON) WASH DC...

  1. Spatial Models of Prebiotic Evolution: Soup Before Pizza?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuring, István; Czárán, Tamás; Szabó, Péter; Károlyi, György; Toroczkai, Zoltán

    2003-10-01

    The problem of information integration and resistance to the invasion of parasitic mutants in prebiotic replicator systems is a notorious issue of research on the origin of life. Almost all theoretical studies published so far have demonstrated that some kind of spatial structure is indispensable for the persistence and/or the parasite resistance of any feasible replicator system. Based on a detailed critical survey of spatial models on prebiotic information integration, we suggest a possible scenario for replicator system evolution leading to the emergence of the first protocells capable of independent life. We show that even the spatial versions of the hypercycle model are vulnerable to selfish parasites in heterogeneous habitats. Contrary, the metabolic system remains persistent and coexistent with its parasites both on heterogeneous surfaces and in chaotically mixing flowing media. Persistent metabolic parasites can be converted to metabolic cooperators, or they can gradually obtain replicase activity. Our simulations show that, once replicase activity emerged, a gradual and simultaneous evolutionary improvement of replicase functionality (speed and fidelity) and template efficiency is possible only on a surface that constrains the mobility of macromolecule replicators. Based on the results of the models reviewed, we suggest that open chaotic flows (`soup') and surface dynamics (`pizza') both played key roles in the sequence of evolutionary events ultimately concluding in the appearance of the first living cell on Earth.

  2. THE EVOLUTION OF CANALIZATION AND THE BREAKING OF VON BAER'S LAWS: MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPMENT WITH EPISTASIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Sean H

    1998-06-01

    Evolution can change the developmental processes underlying a character without changing the average expression of the character itself. This sort of change must occur in both the evolution of canalization, in which a character becomes increasingly buffered against genetic or developmental variation, and in the phenomenon of closely related species that show similar adult phenotypes but different underlying developmental patterns. To study such phenomena, I develop a model that follows evolution on a surface representing adult phenotype as a function of underlying developmental characters. A contour on such a "phenotype landscape" is a set of states of developmental characters that produce the same adult phenotype. Epistasis induces curvature of this surface, and degree of canalization is represented by the slope along a contour. I first discuss the geometric properties of phenotype landscapes, relating epistasis to canalization. I then impose a fitness function on the phenotype and model evolution of developmental characters as a function of the fitness function and the local geometry of the surface. This model shows how canalization evolves as a population approaches an optimum phenotype. It further shows that under some circumstances, "decanalization" can occur, in which the expression of adult phenotype becomes increasingly sensitive to developmental variation. This process can cause very similar populations to diverge from one another developmentally even when their adult phenotypes experience identical selection regimes. © 1998 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  3. Metal-Matrix Composites and Porous Materials: Constitute Models, Microstructure Evolution and Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Castafieda, P

    2000-01-01

    Constitutive models were developed and implemented numerically to account for the evolution of microstructure and anisotropy in finite-deformation processes involving porous and composite materials...

  4. Hydrogeological modelling as a tool for understanding rockslides evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosta, Giovanni B.; De Caro, Mattia; Frattini, Paolo; Volpi, Giorgio

    2015-04-01

    construction of the models, in particular the partition of the slope in different sectors with different hydraulic conductivities, are coherent with the geological, structural, hydrological and hydrogeological field and laboratory data. The sensitivity analysis shows that the hydraulic conductivity of some slope sectors (e.g. morphostructures, compressed or relaxed slope-toe, basal shear band) strongly influence the water table position and evolution. In transient models, the values of specific storage coefficient play a major control on the amplitude of groundwater level fluctuations, deriving from snowmelt or induced reservoir level rise. The calibrated groundwater flow-models are consistent with groundwater levels measured in the proximity of the piezometers aligned along the sections. The two examples can be considered important for a more advanced understanding of the evolution of rockslides and suggest the required set of data and modelling approaches both for seasonal and long term slope stability analyses. The use of the results of such analyses is reported, for both the case studies, in a companion abstract in session 3.7 where elasto-visco-plastic rheologies have been adopted for the shear band materials to replicate the available displacement time-series.

  5. Beans (Phaseolus ssp.) as a Model for Understanding Crop Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitocchi, Elena; Rau, Domenico; Bellucci, Elisa; Rodriguez, Monica; Murgia, Maria L.; Gioia, Tania; Santo, Debora; Nanni, Laura; Attene, Giovanna; Papa, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the most significant outcomes in the literature regarding the origin of Phaseolus genus, the geographical distribution of the wild species, the domestication process, and the wide spread out of the centers of origin. Phaseolus can be considered as a unique model for the study of crop evolution, and in particular, for an understanding of the convergent phenotypic evolution that occurred under domestication. The almost unique situation that characterizes the Phaseolus genus is that five of its ∼70 species have been domesticated (i.e., Phaseolus vulgaris, P. coccineus, P. dumosus, P. acutifolius, and P. lunatus), and in addition, for P. vulgaris and P. lunatus, the wild forms are distributed in both Mesoamerica and South America, where at least two independent and isolated episodes of domestication occurred. Thus, at least seven independent domestication events occurred, which provides the possibility to unravel the genetic basis of the domestication process not only among species of the same genus, but also between gene pools within the same species. Along with this, other interesting features makes Phaseolus crops very useful in the study of evolution, including: (i) their recent divergence, and the high level of collinearity and synteny among their genomes; (ii) their different breeding systems and life history traits, from annual and autogamous, to perennial and allogamous; and (iii) their adaptation to different environments, not only in their centers of origin, but also out of the Americas, following their introduction and wide spread through different countries. In particular for P. vulgaris this resulted in the breaking of the spatial isolation of the Mesoamerican and Andean gene pools, which allowed spontaneous hybridization, thus increasing of the possibility of novel genotypes and phenotypes. This knowledge that is associated to the genetic resources that have been conserved ex situ and in

  6. Quantification of shoreline change along Hatteras Island, North Carolina: Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978-2002, and associated vector shoreline data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel E.

    2015-01-01

    Shoreline change spanning twenty-four years was assessed along the coastline of Cape Hatteras National Seashore, at Hatteras Island, North Carolina. The shorelines used in the analysis were generated from georeferenced historical aerial imagery and are used to develop shoreline change rates for Hatteras Island, from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras. A total of 14 dates of aerial photographs ranging from 1978 through 2002 were obtained from the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, and scanned to generate digital imagery. The digital imagery was georeferenced and high water line shorelines (interpreted from the wet/dry line) were digitized from each date to produce a time series of shorelines for the study area. Rates of shoreline change were calculated for three periods: the full span of the time series, 1978 through 2002, and two approximately decadal subsets, 1978–89 and 1989–2002.

  7. Modeling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

    2011-10-01

    The secular regime of motion of multi-planetary systems is universal; in contrast with the 'accidental' resonant motion, characteristic only for specific configurations of the planets, secular motion is present everywhere in phase space, even inside the resonant region. The secular behavior of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces is the principal subject of this study, particularly, the case when the dissipative forces affect the planetary semi-major axes and the planets move inward/outward the central star, the process known as planet migration. Based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion is determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

  8. Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

    2017-09-25

    Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

  9. Considering bioactivity in modelling continental growth and the Earth's evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

    2013-09-01

    The complexity of planetary evolution increases with the number of interacting reservoirs. On Earth, even the biosphere is speculated to interact with the interior. It has been argued (e.g., Rosing et al. 2006; Sleep et al, 2012) that the formation of continents could be a consequence of bioactivity harvesting solar energy through photosynthesis to help build the continents and that the mantle should carry a chemical biosignature. Through plate tectonics, the surface biosphere can impact deep subduction zone processes and the interior of the Earth. Subducted sediments are particularly important, because they influence the Earth's interior in several ways, and in turn are strongly influenced by the Earth's biosphere. In our model, we use the assumption that a thick sedimentary layer of low permeability on top of the subducting oceanic crust, caused by a biologically enhanced weathering rate, can suppress shallow dewatering. This in turn leads to greater vailability of water in the source region of andesitic partial melt, resulting in an enhanced rate of continental production and regassing rate into the mantle. Our model includes (i) mantle convection, (ii) continental erosion and production, and (iii) mantle water degassing at mid-ocean ridges and regassing at subduction zones. The mantle viscosity of our model depends on (i) the mantle water concentration and (ii) the mantle temperature, whose time dependency is given by radioactive decay of isotopes in the Earth's mantle. Boundary layer theory yields the speed of convection and the water outgassing rate of the Earth's mantle. Our results indicate that present day values of continental surface area and water content of the Earth's mantle represent an attractor in a phase plane spanned by both parameters. We show that the biologic enhancement of the continental erosion rate is important for the system to reach this fixed point. An abiotic Earth tends to reach an alternative stable fixed point with a smaller

  10. TESTING MODELS OF MAGNETIC FIELD EVOLUTION OF NEUTRON STARS WITH THE STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF THEIR SPIN EVOLUTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shuangnan; Xie Yi

    2012-01-01

    We test models for the evolution of neutron star (NS) magnetic fields (B). Our model for the evolution of the NS spin is taken from an analysis of pulsar timing noise presented by Hobbs et al.. We first test the standard model of a pulsar's magnetosphere in which B does not change with time and magnetic dipole radiation is assumed to dominate the pulsar's spin-down. We find that this model fails to predict both the magnitudes and signs of the second derivatives of the spin frequencies (ν-double dot). We then construct a phenomenological model of the evolution of B, which contains a long-term decay (LTD) modulated by short-term oscillations; a pulsar's spin is thus modified by its B-evolution. We find that an exponential LTD is not favored by the observed statistical properties of ν-double dot for young pulsars and fails to explain the fact that ν-double dot is negative for roughly half of the old pulsars. A simple power-law LTD can explain all the observed statistical properties of ν-double dot. Finally, we discuss some physical implications of our results to models of the B-decay of NSs and suggest reliable determination of the true ages of many young NSs is needed, in order to constrain further the physical mechanisms of their B-decay. Our model can be further tested with the measured evolutions of ν-dot and ν-double dot for an individual pulsar; the decay index, oscillation amplitude, and period can also be determined this way for the pulsar.

  11. Preliminary conceptual model for mineral evolution in Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, C.J.

    1993-12-01

    A model is presented for mineral alteration in Yucca Mountain, Nevada, that suggests that the mineral transformations observed there are primarily controlled by the activity of aqueous silica. The rate of these reactions is related to the rate of evolution of the metastable silica polymorphs opal-CT and cristobalite assuming that a SiO 2(aq) is fixed at the equilibrium solubility of the most soluble silica polymorph present. The rate equations accurately predict the present depths of disappearance of opal-CT and cristobalite. The rate equations have also been used to predict the extent of future mineral alteration that may result from emplacement of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Yucca Mountain. Relatively small changes in mineralogy are predicted, but these predictions are based on the assumption that emplacement of a repository would not increase the pH of water in Yucca Mountain nor increase its carbonate content. Such changes may significantly increase mineral alteration. Some of the reactions currently occurring in Yucca Mountain consume H + and CO 3 2- . Combining reaction rate models for these reactions with water chemistry data may make it possible to estimate water flux through the basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member and to help confirm the direction and rate of flow of groundwater in Yucca Mountain

  12. Orchestrated structure evolution: modeling growth-regulated nanomanufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbasi, Shaghayegh; Boehringer, Karl F [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States); Kitayaporn, Sathana; Schwartz, Daniel T, E-mail: karlb@washington.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States)

    2011-04-22

    Orchestrated structure evolution (OSE) is a scalable manufacturing method that combines the advantages of top-down (tool-directed) and bottom-up (self-propagating) approaches. The method consists of a seed patterning step that defines where material nucleates, followed by a growth step that merges seeded islands into the final patterned thin film. We develop a model to predict the completed pattern based on a computationally efficient approximate Green's function solution of the diffusion equation plus a Voronoi diagram based approach that defines the final grain boundary structure. Experimental results rely on electron beam lithography to pattern the seeds, followed by the mass transfer limited growth of copper via electrodeposition. The seed growth model is compared with experimental results to quantify nearest neighbor seed-to-seed interactions as well as how seeds interact with the pattern boundary to impact the local growth rate. Seed-to-seed and seed-to-pattern interactions are shown to result in overgrowth of seeds on edges and corners of the shape, where seeds have fewer neighbors. We explore how local changes to the seed location can be used to improve the patterning quality without increasing the manufacturing cost. OSE is shown to enable a unique set of trade-offs between the cost, time, and quality of thin film patterning.

  13. Molecular modeling of the microstructure evolution during carbon fiber processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Saaketh; Li, Chunyu; Shen, Tongtong; Strachan, Alejandro

    2017-12-01

    The rational design of carbon fibers with desired properties requires quantitative relationships between the processing conditions, microstructure, and resulting properties. We developed a molecular model that combines kinetic Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics techniques to predict the microstructure evolution during the processes of carbonization and graphitization of polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based carbon fibers. The model accurately predicts the cross-sectional microstructure of the fibers with the molecular structure of the stabilized PAN fibers and physics-based chemical reaction rates as the only inputs. The resulting structures exhibit key features observed in electron microcopy studies such as curved graphitic sheets and hairpin structures. In addition, computed X-ray diffraction patterns are in good agreement with experiments. We predict the transverse moduli of the resulting fibers between 1 GPa and 5 GPa, in good agreement with experimental results for high modulus fibers and slightly lower than those of high-strength fibers. The transverse modulus is governed by sliding between graphitic sheets, and the relatively low value for the predicted microstructures can be attributed to their perfect longitudinal texture. Finally, the simulations provide insight into the relationships between chemical kinetics and the final microstructure; we observe that high reaction rates result in porous structures with lower moduli.

  14. A simple model for research interest evolution patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Tao; Wang, Dashun; Szymanski, Boleslaw

    Sir Isaac Newton supposedly remarked that in his scientific career he was like ``...a boy playing on the sea-shore ...finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary''. His remarkable modesty and famous understatement motivate us to seek regularities in how scientists shift their research focus as the career develops. Indeed, despite intensive investigations on how microscopic factors, such as incentives and risks, would influence a scientist's choice of research agenda, little is known on the macroscopic patterns in the research interest change undertaken by individual scientists throughout their careers. Here we make use of over 14,000 authors' publication records in physics. By quantifying statistical characteristics in the interest evolution, we model scientific research as a random walk, which reproduces patterns in individuals' careers observed empirically. Despite myriad of factors that shape and influence individual choices of research subjects, we identified regularities in this dynamical process that are well captured by a simple statistical model. The results advance our understanding of scientists' behaviors during their careers and open up avenues for future studies in the science of science.

  15. Package models and the information crisis of prebiotic evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Daniel A M M; Fontanari, José F

    2008-05-21

    The coexistence between different types of templates has been the choice solution to the information crisis of prebiotic evolution, triggered by the finding that a single RNA-like template cannot carry enough information to code for any useful replicase. In principle, confining d distinct templates of length L in a package or protocell, whose survival depends on the coexistence of the templates it holds in, could resolve this crisis provided that d is made sufficiently large. Here we review the prototypical package model of Niesert et al. [1981. Origin of life between Scylla and Charybdis. J. Mol. Evol. 17, 348-353] which guarantees the greatest possible region of viability of the protocell population, and show that this model, and hence the entire package approach, does not resolve the information crisis. In particular, we show that the total information stored in a viable protocell (Ld) tends to a constant value that depends only on the spontaneous error rate per nucleotide of the template replication mechanism. As a result, an increase of d must be followed by a decrease of L, so that the net information gain is null.

  16. The evolution of menstruation: A new model for genetic assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emera, D.; Romero, R.; Wagner, G.

    2012-01-01

    Why do humans menstruate while most mammals do not? Here, we present our answer to this long-debated question, arguing that (i) menstruation occurs as a mechanistic consequence of hormone-induced differentiation of the endometrium (referred to as spontaneous decidualization, or SD); (ii) SD evolved because of maternal-fetal conflict; and (iii) SD evolved by genetic assimilation of the decidualization reaction, which is induced by the fetus in non-menstruating species. The idea that menstruation occurs as a consequence of SD has been proposed in the past, but here we present a novel hypothesis on how SD evolved. We argue that decidualization became genetically stabilized in menstruating lineages, allowing females to prepare for pregnancy without any signal from the fetus. We present three models for the evolution of SD by genetic assimilation, based on recent advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of endometrial differentiation and implantation. Testing these models will ultimately shed light on the evolutionary significance of menstruation, as well as on the etiology of human reproductive disorders like endometriosis and recurrent pregnancy loss. PMID:22057551

  17. A numerical model for meltwater channel evolution in glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Jarosch

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Meltwater channels form an integral part of the hydrological system of a glacier. Better understanding of how meltwater channels develop and evolve is required to fully comprehend supraglacial and englacial meltwater drainage. Incision of supraglacial stream channels and subsequent roof closure by ice deformation has been proposed in recent literature as a possible englacial conduit formation process. Field evidence for supraglacial stream incision has been found in Svalbard and Nepal. In Iceland, where volcanic activity provides meltwater with temperatures above 0 °C, rapid enlargement of supraglacial channels has been observed. Supraglacial channels provide meltwater through englacial passages to the subglacial hydrological systems of big ice sheets, which in turn affects ice sheet motion and their contribution to eustatic sea level change. By coupling, for the first time, a numerical ice dynamic model to a hydraulic model which includes heat transfer, we investigate the evolution of meltwater channels and their incision behaviour. We present results for different, constant meltwater fluxes, different channel slopes, different meltwater temperatures, different melt rate distributions in the channel as well as temporal variations in meltwater flux. The key parameters governing incision rate and depth are channel slope, meltwater temperature loss to the ice and meltwater flux. Channel width and geometry are controlled by melt rate distribution along the channel wall. Calculated Nusselt numbers suggest that turbulent mixing is the main heat transfer mechanism in the meltwater channels studied.

  18. A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Murray, A Brad

    2007-04-10

    The evolution of tidal marsh platforms and interwoven channel networks cannot be addressed without treating the two-way interactions that link biological and physical processes. We have developed a 3D model of tidal marsh accretion and channel network development that couples physical sediment transport processes with vegetation biomass productivity. Tidal flow tends to cause erosion, whereas vegetation biomass, a function of bed surface depth below high tide, influences the rate of sediment deposition and slope-driven transport processes such as creek bank slumping. With a steady, moderate rise in sea level, the model builds a marsh platform and channel network with accretion rates everywhere equal to the rate of sea-level rise, meaning water depths and biological productivity remain temporally constant. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise, or a reduction in sediment supply, causes marsh-surface depths, biomass productivity, and deposition rates to increase while simultaneously causing the channel network to expand. Vegetation on the marsh platform can promote a metastable equilibrium where the platform maintains elevation relative to a rapidly rising sea level, although disturbance to vegetation could cause irreversible loss of marsh habitat.

  19. National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long

  20. A Process Model of Partnership Evolution Around New IT Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Timo; Salmivalli, Lauri; Salmela, Hannu; Vahtera, Annukka

    Prior research on inter-organizational information systems has focused primarily on dyadic network relationships, where agreements about information exchange are made between two organizations. The focus of this research is on the processes through which IT decisions are made within larger inter-organizational networks with several network parties. The research draws from network theories in organization science to identify three alternative mechanisms for making network level commitments: contracts, rules and values. In addition, theoretical concepts are searched from dynamic network models, which identify different cycles and stages in network evolution. The empirical research was conducted in two networks. The first one comprises of four municipalities which began collaboration in the deployment of IT in early childhood education (ECE). The second network involves a case where several organizations, both private and public, initiated a joint effort to implement a national level electronic prescription system (EPS). The frameworks and concepts drawn from organizational theories are used to explain success of the first case and the failure of the latter case. The paper contributes to prior IOS research by providing a new theory-based framework for the analysis of early stages of building organizational networks around innovative IT initiatives.

  1. Enrichment of Zinc in Galactic Chemodynamical Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirai, Yutaka; Saitoh, Takayuki R.; Ishimaru, Yuhri; Wanajo, Shinya

    2018-03-01

    The heaviest iron-peak element Zinc (Zn) has been used as an important tracer of cosmic chemical evolution. Spectroscopic observations of the metal-poor stars in Local Group galaxies show an increasing trend of [Zn/Fe] ratios toward lower metallicity. However, the enrichment of Zn in galaxies is not well understood due to poor knowledge of astrophysical sites of Zn, as well as metal mixing in galaxies. Here we show possible explanations for the observed trend by taking into account electron-capture supernovae (ECSNe) as one of the sources of Zn in our chemodynamical simulations of dwarf galaxies. We find that the ejecta from ECSNe contribute to stars with [Zn/Fe] ≳ 0.5. We also find that scatters of [Zn/Fe] in higher metallicities originate from the ejecta of type Ia supernovae. On the other hand, it appears difficult to explain the observed trends if we do not consider ECSNe as a source of Zn. These results come from an inhomogeneous spatial metallicity distribution due to the inefficiency of the metal mixing. We find that the optimal value of the scaling factor for the metal diffusion coefficient is ∼0.01 in the shear-based metal mixing model in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations. These results suggest that ECSNe could be one of the contributors of the enrichment of Zn in galaxies.

  2. Nutrient-dependent/pheromone-controlled adaptive evolution: a model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Vaughn Kohl

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The prenatal migration of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH neurosecretory neurons allows nutrients and human pheromones to alter GnRH pulsatility, which modulates the concurrent maturation of the neuroendocrine, reproductive, and central nervous systems, thus influencing the development of ingestive behavior, reproductive sexual behavior, and other behaviors. Methods: This model details how chemical ecology drives adaptive evolution via: (1 ecological niche construction, (2 social niche construction, (3 neurogenic niche construction, and (4 socio-cognitive niche construction. This model exemplifies the epigenetic effects of olfactory/pheromonal conditioning, which alters genetically predisposed, nutrient-dependent, hormone-driven mammalian behavior and choices for pheromones that control reproduction via their effects on luteinizing hormone (LH and systems biology. Results: Nutrients are metabolized to pheromones that condition behavior in the same way that food odors condition behavior associated with food preferences. The epigenetic effects of olfactory/pheromonal input calibrate and standardize molecular mechanisms for genetically predisposed receptor-mediated changes in intracellular signaling and stochastic gene expression in GnRH neurosecretory neurons of brain tissue. For example, glucose and pheromones alter the hypothalamic secretion of GnRH and LH. A form of GnRH associated with sexual orientation in yeasts links control of the feedback loops and developmental processes required for nutrient acquisition, movement, reproduction, and the diversification of species from microbes to man. Conclusion: An environmental drive evolved from that of nutrient ingestion in unicellular organisms to that of pheromone-controlled socialization in insects. In mammals, food odors and pheromones cause changes in hormones such as LH, which has developmental affects on pheromone-controlled sexual behavior in nutrient-dependent reproductively

  3. Numerical modelling of the atmospheric mixing-layer diurnal evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molnary, L. de.

    1990-03-01

    This paper introduce a numeric procedure to determine the temporal evolution of the height, potential temperature and mixing ratio in the atmospheric mixing layer. The time and spatial derivatives were evaluated via forward in time scheme to predict the local evolution of the mixing-layer parameters, and a forward in time, upstream in space scheme to predict the evolution of the mixing-layer over a flat region with a one-dimensional advection component. The surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were expressed using a simple sine wave that is function of the hour day and kind of the surface (water or country). (author) [pt

  4. Impacts of shoreline erosion on coastal ecosystems in Songkhla Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipaporn Chusrinuan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Songkhla Province is located on the eastern coast of the southern Thai Peninsula, bordering the Gulf of Thailand for approximately 107 km. Most of the basin’s foreshores have been extensively developed for housing, tourism and shrimp farming. The beaches are under deteriorating impacts, often causing sediment transport which leads to an unnaturally high erosion rate. This natural phenomenon is considered to be a critical problem in the coastal areas affected by the hazard of coastal infrastructure and reduced beach esthetics for recreation. In this study, shoreline changes were compared between 1975 and 2006 using aerial photographs and Landsat imageries using Geographic Information System (GIS. The results revealed that 18.5 km2 of the coastal areas were altered during the period. Of this, 17.3 km2 suffered erosion and 1.2 km2were subjected to accretion. The most significant changes occurred between 1975-2006. Shoreline erosion was found at Ban Paktrae, Ranot District, with an average erosion rate of 5.3 m/year, while accretion occurred at Laem Samila, MuangSongkhla District with an average accretion rate of 2.04 m/year. The occurrences of shoreline erosion have contributed to the degradation of coastal soil and water quality, destruction of beach and mangrove forests, loss of human settlements and livelihood.These processes have led to deterioration of the quality of life of the residents. Prevention and mitigation measures to lessen economic and social impacts due to shoreline erosion are discussed.

  5. Communicative Modelling of Cultural Transmission and Evolution Through a Holographic Cognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambjörn Naeve

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents communicative ways to model the transmission and evolution of the processes and artefacts of a culture as the result of ongoing interactions between its members - both at the tacit and the explicit level. The purpose is not to model the entire cultural process, but to provide semantically rich “conceptual placeholders” for modelling any cultural activity that is considered important enough within a certain context. The general purpose of communicative modelling is to create models that improve the quality of communication between people. In order to capture the subjective aspects of Gregory Bateson’s definition of information as “a difference that makes a difference,” the article introduces a Holographic Cognition Model that uses optical holography as an analogy for human cognition, with the object beam of holography corresponding to the first difference (the situation that the cognitive agent encounters, and the reference beam of holography corresponding to the subjective experiences and biases that the agent brings to the situation, and which makes the second difference (the interference/interpretation pattern unique for each agent. By combining the HCM with a semantically rich and recursive form of process modelling, based on the SECI-theory of knowledge creation, we arrive at way to model the cultural transmission and evolution process that is consistent with the Unified Theory of Information (the Triple-C model with its emphasis on intra-, inter- and supra-actions.

  6. Canadian coastal environments, shoreline processes, and oil spill cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1994-03-01

    The coastal zone is a dynamic environment, so that in developing practical and effective oil spill response strategies it is necessary to understand the forces that contribute to shore-zone processs. The coasts of Canada encompass a wide range of environments and are characterized by a variety of shoreline types that include the exposed, resistant cliffs of eastern Newfoundland and the sheltered marshes of the Beaufort Sea. A report is presented to provide an understanding of the dynamics and physical processes as they vary on the different coasts of Canada, including the Great Lakes. An outline of the general character and processes on a regional basis describes the coastal environments and introduces the literature that can be consulted for more specific information. The likely fate and persistence of oil that reaches the shoreline is discussed to provide the framework for development of spill response strategies and for the selection of appropriate shoreline cleanup or treatment countermeasures. Lessons learned from recent experience with major oil spills and field experiments are integrated into the discussion. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each of the four sections of this report. 502 refs., 5 figs

  7. Simulating the evolution of industries using a dynamic behavioural model

    OpenAIRE

    Kunc, Martin

    2004-01-01

    Investment decisions determine that not only the evolution of industries is hard to forecast with certainty but also industries may have different dynamic behaviour and evolutionary paths. In this paper we present a behavioural framework to simulate the evolution of industries. Two factors determine the dynamic behaviour of an industry: managerial decision-making and the interconnected set of resources. Managerial decision-making significantly affects the dynamic behaviour of firms. Bounded r...

  8. Model to the evolution of the organic matter in the pampa's soil. Relation with cultivation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriulo, Adrian; Mary, Bruno; Guerif, Jerome; Balesdent, Jerome

    1996-08-01

    The objective of the work is to present a model to describe the evolution of the organic matter in soils of the Argentine's pampa. This model can be utilised to evaluate the evolution of the soil's fertility in the agricultural production at this moment. Three kinds of assay were done. The determination of organic carbon made possible to prove the Henin-Dupuis model and a derived model

  9. Quebec region's shoreline segmentation in the St. Lawrence River : response tool for oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laforest, S.; Martin, V.

    2004-01-01

    Environment Canada, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the Eastern Canada Response Corporation are developing and refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools have also been created using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. The pre-spill databases can be used for planning shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system was performed by Eastern Canada Response Corporation during an aerial survey where shoreline was segmented into digitized information. The cartography of segmentation covers the fluvial part of the St. Lawrence River. The oil spill-oriented database includes geomorphologic information from the supratidal to the lower intertidal zones. It also includes some statistical information and other requirements for cleanup operations. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 3 figs

  10. Monitoring oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Harner, E.J.; Boehm, P.D.; Stoker, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Three types of shoreline monitoring programs were employed to evaluate the recovery of the ecological communities of Prince William Sound (PWS) shorelines after the oil spill: (a) Extensive shoreline surveys conducted (1989--1992) over much of the oiled shoreline to define extent of shoreline oiling and to assess biological conditions; (b) Detailed sampling in 1989 at nonrandomly chosen locations representing a range of oiling conditions (c) Comprehensive shoreline ecology program initiated in 1990 to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound using (1) a rigorous stratified random sampling study design with 64 sites representing 4 shoreline habitats and 4 oiling levels (unoiled, light, moderate, heavy); (2) periodic sampling at 12 nonrandomly chosen sites of particular concern. Biological communities were analyzed to detect differences due to oiling in each of 16 habitat/tide zone combinations. Following the spill, populations of all major species survived as sources for recolonization. Recruitment to oiled shores began in summer 1989. By 1990, shoreline biota in PWS had largely recovered. Estimates of shoreline recovery (biological community indistinguishable from reference) ranged from 91% based on univariate analysis of standard community parameters to 73% based on multivariate correspondence analysis

  11. Power Scaling of the Mainland Shoreline of the Atlantic Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasko, E.; Barton, C. C.; Geise, G. R.; Rizki, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The fractal dimension of the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast of the United Stated from Maine to Homestead, FL has been measured in 1000 km increments using the box-counting method. The shoreline analyzed is the NOAA Medium Resolution Shoreline (https://shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/medres.html). The shoreline was reconstituted into sequentially numbered X-Y coordinate points in UTM Zone 18N which are spaced 50 meters apart, as measured continuously along the shoreline. We created a MATLAB computer code to measure the fractal dimension by box counting while "walking" along the shoreline. The range of box sizes is 0.7 to 450 km. The fractal dimension ranges from 1.0 to1.5 along the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast. The fractal dimension is compared with beach particle sizes (bedrock outcrop, cobbles, pebbles, sand, clay), tidal range, rate of sea level rise, rate and direction of vertical crustal movement, and wave energy, looking for correlation with the measured fractal dimensions. The results show a correlation between high fractal dimensions (1.3 - 1.4) and tectonically emergent coasts, and low fractal dimensions (1.0 - 1.2) along submergent and stable coastal regions. Fractal dimension averages 1.3 along shorelines with shoreline protection structures such as seawalls, jetties, and groins.

  12. Petrologic Modeling of Magmatic Evolution in The Elysium Volcanic Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, D.; Karunatillake, S.; Hood, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Elysium Volcanic Province (EVP) on Mars is a massive expanse of land made up of many hundreds of lava flows of various ages1. The variable surface ages within this volcanic province have distinct elemental compositions based on the derived values from the Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) suite2. Without seismic data or ophiolite sequences on Mars, the compositions of lavas on the surface provide some of the only information to study the properties of the interior of the planet. The Amazonian surface age and isolated nature of the EVP in the northern lowlands of Mars make it ideal for analyzing the mantle beneath Elysium during the most recent geologic era on Mars. The MELTS algorithm is one of the most commonly used programs for simulating compositions and mineral phases of basaltic melt crystallization3. It has been used extensively for both terrestrial applications4 and for other planetary bodies3,5. The pMELTS calibration of the algorithm allows for higher pressure (10-30 kbars) regimes, and is more appropriate for modeling melt compositions and equilibrium conditions for a source within the martian mantle. We use the pMELTS program to model how partial melting of the martian mantle could evolve magmas into the surface compositions derived from the GRS instrument, and how the mantle beneath Elysium has changed over time. We attribute changes to lithospheric loading by long term, episodic volcanism within the EVP throughout its history. 1. Vaucher, J. et al. The volcanic history of central Elysium Planitia: Implications for martian magmatism. Icarus 204, 418-442 (2009). 2. Susko, D. et al. A record of igneous evolution in Elysium, a major martian volcanic province. Scientific Reports 7, 43177 (2017). 3. El Maarry, M. R. et al. Gamma-ray constraints on the chemical composition of the martian surface in the Tharsis region: A signature of partial melting of the mantle? Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 185, 116-122 (2009). 4. Ding, S. & Dasgupta, R. The

  13. Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    H.K.D.H. Bhadeshia, A Model for the Microstruc- ture of Some Advanced Bainitic Steels , Mater. Trans., 1991, 32, p 689–696 19. G.J. Davies and J.G. Garland...REPORT Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY...Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding Report Title ABSTRACT A fully coupled (two-way

  14. Modeling Marek's disease virus transmission: A framework for evaluating the impact of farming practices and evolution

    OpenAIRE

    David A. Kennedy; Patricia A. Dunn; Andrew F. Read

    2018-01-01

    Marek's disease virus (MDV) is a pathogen of chickens whose control has twice been undermined by pathogen evolution. Disease ecology is believed to be the main driver of this evolution, yet mathematical models of MDV disease ecology have never been confronted with data to test their reliability. Here, we develop a suite of MDV models that differ in the ecological mechanisms they include. We fit these models with maximum likelihood using iterated filtering in ‘pomp’ to data on MDV concentratio...

  15. Topological bifurcations in the evolution of coherent structures in a convection model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Magnus; Rasmussen, Jens Juul; Naulin, Volker

    2017-01-01

    Blob filaments are coherent structures in a turbulent plasma flow. Understanding the evolution of these structures is important to improve magnetic plasma confinement. Three state variables describe blob filaments in a plasma convection model. A dynamical systems approach analyzes the evolution...

  16. Quantum time evolution of a closed Friedmann model

    CERN Document Server

    Hinterleitner, F

    2002-01-01

    We consider a quantized dust-filled closed Friedmann universe in Ashtekar-type variables. Due to the presence of matter, the 'timelessness problem' of quantum gravity can be solved in this case by using the following approach to the Hamiltonian operator. 1. The arising Wheeler-DeWitt equation appears as an eigenvalue equation for discrete values of the total mass. 2. Its gravitational part is considered as the generator of the time evolution of geometry. 3. Superpositions of different eigenfunctions with time behaviour governed by the corresponding eigenvalues of mass are admitted. Following these lines, a time evolution with a correct classical limit is obtained.

  17. Shoreline ecology program for Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Part 1: Study design and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, D.S.; Gilfillan, E.S.; Boehm, P.D.; Harner, E.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and analysis of a large field and laboratory program to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The study was designed so that results could be generalized area-wide (biology, chemistry) or habitat-wide (toxicology) and projected forward in time (chemistry). It made use of the sediment quality triad approach, combining biological, chemical, and toxicological measurements to assess shoreline recovery. Key aspects of the study include the following: coordinated field sampling for chemical, toxicological, and biological studies; stratified random sampling (SRS) as a basis for spatial generalization; periodic sampling to assess trends, including sites with worst-case conditions; analysis of oil-spill effects on hundreds of species; statistical methods based on normal and non-normal theory, consistent with the structure of the data, including generalized linear models and multivariate correspondence analysis. 45 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  18. Ikaite precipitation by mixing of shoreline springs and lake water, Mono Lake, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, James L.; Stine, Scott; Rosenbauer, Robert J.; Fitzpatrick, John A.; Stafford, Thomas W., Jr.

    1993-08-01

    Metastable ikaite (CaCO 3·6H 2O) forms abundantly during winter months along the south shoreline of Mono Lake where shoreline springs mix with lake water. Ikaite precipitates because of its decreased solubility at low temperature and because of orthophosphate-ion inhibition of calcite and aragonite. During the spring some of the ikaite is transformed to anhydrous CaCO 3 and is incorporated into tufa, but most is dispersed by wave action into the lake where it reacts to form gaylussite (Na 2Ca(CO 3) 2· 5H 2O). Spring waters have low pH values, are dominantly Ca-Na-HCO 3, have low radiocarbon activities, and are mixtures of deep-seated geothermal and cold groundwaters. Chemical modeling reveals that precipitation of CaCO 3 can occur over a broad range of mixtures of spring and lake water with a maximum production occurring at 96% spring water and 4% lake water. Under these conditions all the Ca and a significant fraction of the CO 3 of the precipitate is spring supplied. A radiocarbon age of 19,580 years obtained on a natural ikaite sample supports this conclusion. With the springs supplying a large and probably variable portion of the carbonate, and with apparent 14C age of the carbonate varying from spring to spring, tufa of similar actual antiquity may yield significantly different 14C dates, making tufa at this location unsuitable for absolute age dating by the radiocarbon method.

  19. The Jukes-Cantor Model of Molecular Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Keith

    2010-01-01

    The material in this module introduces students to some of the mathematical tools used to examine molecular evolution. This topic is standard fare in many mathematical biology or bioinformatics classes, but could also be suitable for classes in linear algebra or probability. While coursework in matrix algebra, Markov processes, Monte Carlo…

  20. Modeling Wind Wave Evolution from Deep to Shallow Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    W.H. Hui, 1979; Nonlinear energy transfer in narrow gravity wave spectrum. Proc. Roy. Soc. London A368, 239–265. Gagnaire-Renou, E., M. Benoit , and P...at the 2013 WISE meeting, Camp Springs, MA , USA. Smit P. B. and T. T. Janssen, 2013; The evolution of inhomogeneous wave statistics through a

  1. Monitoring shoreline environment of Paradip, east coast of India using remote sensing

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Shrivastava, D.; Vethamony, P.

    -raey et al. 8 used remote sensing for detecting beach erosion and ac- cretion along Damietta Port, Egypt. Narayana and Priju 9 studied the shoreline changes along the central Kerala coast using satellite images. Shoreline-change mapping was carried... and detecting long-term change in the entire coastline. Meijerink 11 and Rao 12 studied the dynamic geomor- phology of Mahanadi delta and problems of coastal dyna- mics and shoreline changes which arose after the construction of Paradip port. Rupali 13...

  2. COREXIT 9580 shoreline cleaner: Development, application, and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canevari, G.P.; Fiocco, R.J.; Lessard, R.R.; Fingas, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe research on chemical beach cleaners for treatment of oiled shorelines that was initiated in support of the cleaning activities in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Valdez oil spill in March 1989. The concept for using beach cleaners for shoreline cleanup is to apply a pre-soak to the weathered crude oil on shore and then flush with sea water to wash the oil into a boomed area for subsequent recovery. Criteria imposed on the use of chemical beach cleaners for the cleanup of the Valdez spill were: (1) effective rock cleaning agents should have very little or no toxicity to marine and terrestrial life, (2) there should be no dispersion of the oil washed from the shoreline into the water column; oil was to be recovered by techniques such as skimming or sorbents, and (3) the agents should be on the EPA National Contingency Plan (NCP) list. A laboratory-scale rock washing test was developed to measure cleaner effectiveness and dispersion. A large number of commercially available formulated products were evaluated, as well as development formulations. The commercial products included all of the available NCP-listed products which could function as cleaners. None of the commercial products completely satisfied all the requirements established by the agencies for beach cleaning. However, a new formula, called COREXIT 9580, consisting of two surfactants and a solvent was developed. It exhibited low fish toxicity, low dispersancy and effective rock cleaning capability. The paper reviews the laboratory and field testing to explore the potential use of the COREXIT 9580 to save and restore oiled vegetation

  3. An Evaluation of Models of Bentonite Pore Water Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savage, David; Watson, Claire; Wilson, James (Quintessa Ltd, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)); Arthur, Randy (Monitor Scientific LLC, Denver, CO (United States))

    2010-01-15

    The determination of a bentonite pore water composition and understanding its evolution of with time underpins many radioactive waste disposal issues, such as buffer erosion, canister corrosion, and radionuclide solubility, sorption, and diffusion, inter alia. The usual approach to modelling clay pore fluids is based primarily around assumed chemical equilibrium between Na+, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ aqueous species and ion exchange sites on montmorillonite, but also includes protonation- deprotonation of clay edge surface sites, and dissolution-precipitation of the trace mineral constituents, calcite and gypsum. An essential feature of this modelling approach is that clay hydrolysis reactions (i.e. dissolution of the aluminosilicate octahedral and tetrahedral sheets of montmorillonite) are ignored. A consequence of the omission of clay hydrolysis reactions from bentonite pore fluid models is that montmorillonite is preserved indefinitely in the near-field system, even over million-year timescales. Here, we investigate the applicability of an alternative clay pore fluid model, one that incorporates clay hydrolysis reactions as an integral component and test it against well-characterised laboratory experimental data, where key geochemical parameters, Eh and pH, have been measured directly in compacted bentonite. Simulations have been conducted using a range of computer codes to test the applicability of this alternative model. Thermodynamic data for MX-80 smectite used in the calculations were estimated using two different methods. Simulations of 'end-point' pH measurements in batch bentonite-water slurry experiments showed different pH values according to the complexity of the system studied. The most complete system investigated revealed pH values were a strong function of partial pressure of carbon dioxide, with pH increasing with decreasing PCO{sub 2} (log PCO{sub 2} values ranging from -3.5 to -7.5 bars produced pH values ranging from 7.9 to 9.6). A second

  4. Living shorelines enhanced the resilience of saltmarshes to Hurricane Matthew (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carter S; Puckett, Brandon; Gittman, Rachel K; Peterson, Charles H

    2018-06-01

    Nature-based solutions, such as living shorelines, have the potential to restore critical ecosystems, enhance coastal sustainability, and increase resilience to natural disasters; however, their efficacy during storm events compared to traditional hardened shorelines is largely untested. This is a major impediment to their implementation and promotion to policy-makers and homeowners. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated rock sill living shorelines as compared to natural marshes and hardened shorelines (i.e., bulkheads) in North Carolina, USA for changes in surface elevation, Spartina alterniflora stem density, and structural damage from 2015 to 2017, including before and after Hurricane Matthew (2016). Our results show that living shorelines exhibited better resistance to landward erosion during Hurricane Matthew than bulkheads and natural marshes. Additionally, living shorelines were more resilient than hardened shorelines, as they maintained landward elevation over the two-year study period without requiring any repair. Finally, rock sill living shorelines were able to enhance S. alterniflora stem densities over time when compared to natural marshes. Our results suggest that living shorelines have the potential to improve coastal resilience while supporting important coastal ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. Living Shoreline Designs in Urban Systems: Examples from New York and Baltimore Harbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doss, T.

    2017-12-01

    In the aftermath of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, there was a renewed interest in protecting our shorelines and restoring community resiliency by using natural and nature based features. We observed in the wake of these storms that those shorelines that had been protected by natural features sustained less damage. But how well can we mimic these natural features? And how do we determine which strategy is best along a given shoreline? A series of living shoreline pilot projects are presented, highlighting the design and construction for the different strategies and how they are being monitored and adapted to sea level rise.

  6. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  7. Microstructure evolution during cyclic tests on EUROFER 97 at room temperature. TEM observation and modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Giordana, M. F.; Giroux, P. F.; Alvarez; Armas, I.; Sauzay, M.; Armas, A.; Kruml, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 550, JUL (2012), s. 103-111 ISSN 0921-5093 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : martensitic steels * softening behaviour * microstructural evolution * modelling Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 2.108, year: 2012

  8. Numerical study of the evolution of a magnetized plasma by means of a hybrid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinu, L [Institutul de Matematica, Bucharest (Romania); Vlad, M [Institutul de Fizica si Tehnologia Aparatelor cu Radiatii, Bucharest (Romania)

    1979-01-01

    A numerical solution of the Vlasov-fluid model describing a time and space plasma evolution is presented. This should be compared with J.P. Frjedberg's analysis (1), (2) which provides growth rates for instabilities and some stability criteria.

  9. Gas-evolution oscillators. 10. A model based on a delay equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bar-Eli, K.; Noyes, R.M. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)

    1992-09-17

    This paper develops a simplified method to model the behavior of a gas-evolution oscillator with two differential delay equations in two unknowns consisting of the population of dissolved molecules in solution and the pressure of the gas.

  10. Gas-evolution oscillators. 10. A model based on a delay equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bar-Eli, K.; Noyes, R.M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper develops a simplified method to model the behavior of a gas-evolution oscillator with two differential delay equations in two unknowns consisting of the population of dissolved molecules in solution and the pressure of the gas

  11. Evolution dynamics modeling and simulation of logistics enterprise's core competence based on service innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo; Tong, Yuting

    2017-04-01

    With the rapid development of economy, the development of logistics enterprises in China is also facing a huge challenge, especially the logistics enterprises generally lack of core competitiveness, and service innovation awareness is not strong. Scholars in the process of studying the core competitiveness of logistics enterprises are mainly from the perspective of static stability, not from the perspective of dynamic evolution to explore. So the author analyzes the influencing factors and the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises, using the method of system dynamics to study the cause and effect of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, construct a system dynamics model of evolution of core competence logistics enterprises, which can be simulated by vensim PLE. The analysis for the effectiveness and sensitivity of simulation model indicates the model can be used as the fitting of the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises and reveal the process and mechanism of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, and provide management strategies for improving the core competence of logistics enterprises. The construction and operation of computer simulation model offers a kind of effective method for studying the evolution of logistics enterprise core competence.

  12. Ups and Downs: Modeling the Visual Evolution of Fashion Trends with One-Class Collaborative Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    He, Ruining; McAuley, Julian

    2016-01-01

    Building a successful recommender system depends on understanding both the dimensions of people's preferences as well as their dynamics. In certain domains, such as fashion, modeling such preferences can be incredibly difficult, due to the need to simultaneously model the visual appearance of products as well as their evolution over time. The subtle semantics and non-linear dynamics of fashion evolution raise unique challenges especially considering the sparsity and large scale of the underly...

  13. An Analytical Model for the Evolution of the Protoplanetary Disks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khajenabi, Fazeleh; Kazrani, Kimia; Shadmehri, Mohsen, E-mail: f.khajenabi@gu.ac.ir [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan 49138-15739 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-06-01

    We obtain a new set of analytical solutions for the evolution of a self-gravitating accretion disk by holding the Toomre parameter close to its threshold and obtaining the stress parameter from the cooling rate. In agreement with the previous numerical solutions, furthermore, the accretion rate is assumed to be independent of the disk radius. Extreme situations where the entire disk is either optically thick or optically thin are studied independently, and the obtained solutions can be used for exploring the early or the final phases of a protoplanetary disk evolution. Our solutions exhibit decay of the accretion rate as a power-law function of the age of the system, with exponents −0.75 and −1.04 for optically thick and thin cases, respectively. Our calculations permit us to explore the evolution of the snow line analytically. The location of the snow line in the optically thick regime evolves as a power-law function of time with the exponent −0.16; however, when the disk is optically thin, the location of the snow line as a function of time with the exponent −0.7 has a stronger dependence on time. This means that in an optically thin disk inward migration of the snow line is faster than an optically thick disk.

  14. Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

    2017-07-01

    Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

  15. Evolution of errors in the altimetric bathymetry model used by Google Earth and GEBCO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, K. M.; Smith, W. H. F.; Sandwell, D. T.

    2010-09-01

    We analyze errors in the global bathymetry models of Smith and Sandwell that combine satellite altimetry with acoustic soundings and shorelines to estimate depths. Versions of these models have been incorporated into Google Earth and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). We use Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) multibeam surveys not previously incorporated into the models as "ground truth" to compare against model versions 7.2 through 12.1, defining vertical differences as "errors." Overall error statistics improve over time: 50th percentile errors declined from 57 to 55 to 49 m, and 90th percentile errors declined from 257 to 235 to 219 m, in versions 8.2, 11.1 and 12.1. This improvement is partly due to an increasing number of soundings incorporated into successive models, and partly to improvements in the satellite gravity model. Inspection of specific sites reveals that changes in the algorithms used to interpolate across survey gaps with altimetry have affected some errors. Versions 9.1 through 11.1 show a bias in the scaling from gravity in milliGals to topography in meters that affected the 15-160 km wavelength band. Regionally averaged (>160 km wavelength) depths have accumulated error over successive versions 9 through 11. These problems have been mitigated in version 12.1, which shows no systematic variation of errors with depth. Even so, version 12.1 is in some respects not as good as version 8.2, which employed a different algorithm.

  16. Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies : Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.j.a.m.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Van Gorp, W.; Coulthard, T.j.; Schoorl, J.m.

    2017-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

  17. Toward a better understanding of nearshore meteotsunami evolution, and effective meteotsunami early-warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheremet, A.; Li, C.; Shrira, V. I.

    2017-12-01

    We present high-resolution observations collected in 2008 on the Atcahfalaya shelf that capture the shoaling evolution of a meteotsunami (MT), including the disintegration into the train of solitons (solibore). One of the intriguing elements of this process is a spectacular 1.5-m solitary-wave (soliton), that precedes the arrival of the MT solibore by approximately 5 min, reaching the observation site propagating through a background of nearly-calm waters (20-cm height wind waves). Solitons, products of the MT disintegration process, are observed at all experiment sites, covering approx. 200 km shoreline. We interpret observations employing numerical simulations of a simplified hydrodynamic model based on the variable coefficient KdV equation. The analysis shows that observed wide-spread soliton presence and the soliton/solibore formation are the result of a complicated evolution process involving refraction, collision, and nonlinear interaction of multiple meteotsunami waves.Our results highlight the substantial lack of detail of the current picture of the nonlinear transformation of a MT from generation to its shoreline manifestation. A realistic reconstruction of MT evolution is at present almost impossible based on the current poor spatial and temporal resolution MT observations, overwhelmingly confined to the shoreline. Since the MTs tend to disintegrate into very short (down to 10s) pulses, even modern tidal gauges (1 min resolution) fail to capture essential features of its evolution. We also briefly discuss an ongoing field experiment that carries further the effort to collect high-resolution MT measurements, and that will investigate and test methodologies for early warning systems.

  18. Radiation dates of holocene shorelines in Peninsula Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjia, H.D.; Kigoshi, K.

    1977-01-01

    Fifteen newly determined radiocarbon dates indicate the presence of former shorelines up to 3 meters above present high tide level in the tectonically stable Peninsula of Malaysia. The sea level indicators consist of oysters in growth position (9 samples), molluscs in beach deposits (2), corals in growth position (3), and beachrock (1). In the Peninsula living oysters occur up to or slightly above high tide, modern beach deposits may occur as high as 1.5 meters above high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that beachrock marks intertidal zones. Combined with seven previously published ages of raised shorelines in the region, strong evidence is presented for one or more high Holocene, eustatic sea level stands in the continental part of Southeast Asia. Periods of high sea levels occur between 2500 and 2900 yr BP, and between 4200 and 5700 yr BP. There is also some indication of high sea level between 8300 and 9500 yr BP. (author)

  19. Uplift of quaternary shorelines in eastern Patagonia: Darwin revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedoja, Kevin; Regard, Vincent; Husson, Laurent; Martinod, Joseph; Guillaume, Benjamin; Fucks, Enrique; Iglesias, Maximiliano; Weill, Pierre

    2011-04-01

    During his journey on the Beagle, Darwin observed the uniformity in the elevation of coastal Eastern Patagonia along more than 2000 km. More than one century later, the sequences of Quaternary shorelines of eastern Patagonia have been described and their deposits dated but not yet interpreted in terms of geodynamics. Consequently, we i) mapped the repartition of the Quaternary coastal sequences in Argentinean Patagonia, ii) secured accurate altitudes of shoreline angles associated with erosional morphologies (i.e. marine terraces and notches), iii) took into account previous chrono-stratigraphical interpretations in order to calculate mean uplift rates since ~ 440 ka (MIS 11) and proposed age ranges for the higher and older features (up to ~ 180 m), and iv) focused on the Last Interglacial Maximum terrace (MIS 5e) as the best constrained marine terrace (in terms of age and altitude) in order to use it as a tectonic benchmark to quantify uplift rates along the entire passive margin of Eastern South America. Our results show that the eastern Patagonia uplift is constant through time and twice the uplift of the rest of the South American margin. We suggest that the enhanced uplift along the eastern Patagonian coast that interested Darwin during his journey around South America on the Beagle could originate from the subduction of the Chile ridge and the associated dynamic uplift.

  20. Fitting models of continuous trait evolution to incompletely sampled comparative data using approximate Bayesian computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Graham J; Harmon, Luke J; Wegmann, Daniel; Joyce, Paul; Revell, Liam J; Alfaro, Michael E

    2012-03-01

    In recent years, a suite of methods has been developed to fit multiple rate models to phylogenetic comparative data. However, most methods have limited utility at broad phylogenetic scales because they typically require complete sampling of both the tree and the associated phenotypic data. Here, we develop and implement a new, tree-based method called MECCA (Modeling Evolution of Continuous Characters using ABC) that uses a hybrid likelihood/approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach to simultaneously infer rates of diversification and trait evolution from incompletely sampled phylogenies and trait data. We demonstrate via simulation that MECCA has considerable power to choose among single versus multiple evolutionary rate models, and thus can be used to test hypotheses about changes in the rate of trait evolution across an incomplete tree of life. We finally apply MECCA to an empirical example of body size evolution in carnivores, and show that there is no evidence for an elevated rate of body size evolution in the pinnipeds relative to terrestrial carnivores. ABC approaches can provide a useful alternative set of tools for future macroevolutionary studies where likelihood-dependent approaches are lacking. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. Modeling evolution of crosstalk in noisy signal transduction networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareen, Ammar; Wingreen, Ned S.; Mukhopadhyay, Ranjan

    2018-02-01

    Signal transduction networks can form highly interconnected systems within cells due to crosstalk between constituent pathways. To better understand the evolutionary design principles underlying such networks, we study the evolution of crosstalk for two parallel signaling pathways that arise via gene duplication. We use a sequence-based evolutionary algorithm and evolve the network based on two physically motivated fitness functions related to information transmission. We find that one fitness function leads to a high degree of crosstalk while the other leads to pathway specificity. Our results offer insights on the relationship between network architecture and information transmission for noisy biomolecular networks.

  2. Magnetic field of Mercury and models of thermal evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharpe, H.N.; Strangway, D.W.

    1976-01-01

    Recent planetary probes have performed in situ measurements of the magnetic fields of all the terrestrial planets. Consideration is given to the origin of these fields, with attention to the equilibrium-- condensation hypothesis for the formation of the solar system. In particular, it is shown that Mercury's present day magnetic field could have been acquired during or shortly after a cold accretion or that it could be due to a presently operating dynamo, resulting from a 'hot evolution'. Two parameters which would help to distinguish between these possibilities are the present-day surface heat flow and the moment of inertia

  3. Testing gradual and speciational models of evolution in extant taxa: the example of ratites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laurin, M.; Gussekloo, S.W.S.; Marjanovic, D.; Legendre, L.; Cubo, J.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since Eldredge and Gould proposed their model of punctuated equilibria, evolutionary biologists have debated how often this model is the best description of nature and how important it is compared to the more gradual models of evolution expected from natural selection and the neo-Darwinian

  4. Physical model of evolution of oxygen subsystem of PLZT-ceramics at neutron irradiation and annealing

    CERN Document Server

    Kulikov, D V; Trushin, Y V; Veber, K V; Khumer, K; Bitner, R; Shternberg, A R

    2001-01-01

    The physical model of evolution of the oxygen subsystem defects of the ferroelectric PLZT-ceramics by the neutron irradiation and isochrone annealing is proposed. The model accounts for the effect the lanthanum content on the material properties. The changes in the oxygen vacancies concentration, calculated by the proposed model, agree well with the polarization experimental behavior by the irradiated material annealing

  5. Gene finding with a hidden Markov model of genome structure and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hein, Jotun

    2003-01-01

    the model are linear in alignment length and genome number. The model is applied to the problem of gene finding. The benefit of modelling sequence evolution is demonstrated both in a range of simulations and on a set of orthologous human/mouse gene pairs. AVAILABILITY: Free availability over the Internet...

  6. Recent topographic evolution and erosion of the deglaciated Washington Cascades inferred from a stochastic landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Seulgi; Shelef, Eitan; Hilley, George E.

    2015-05-01

    In this study, we model postglacial surface processes and examine the evolution of the topography and denudation rates within the deglaciated Washington Cascades to understand the controls on and time scales of landscape response to changes in the surface process regime after deglaciation. The postglacial adjustment of this landscape is modeled using a geomorphic-transport-law-based numerical model that includes processes of river incision, hillslope diffusion, and stochastic landslides. The surface lowering due to landslides is parameterized using a physically based slope stability model coupled to a stochastic model of the generation of landslides. The model parameters of river incision and stochastic landslides are calibrated based on the rates and distribution of thousand-year-time scale denudation rates measured from cosmogenic 10Be isotopes. The probability distributions of those model parameters calculated based on a Bayesian inversion scheme show comparable ranges from previous studies in similar rock types and climatic conditions. The magnitude of landslide denudation rates is determined by failure density (similar to landslide frequency), whereas precipitation and slopes affect the spatial variation in landslide denudation rates. Simulation results show that postglacial denudation rates decay over time and take longer than 100 kyr to reach time-invariant rates. Over time, the landslides in the model consume the steep slopes characteristic of deglaciated landscapes. This response time scale is on the order of or longer than glacial/interglacial cycles, suggesting that frequent climatic perturbations during the Quaternary may produce a significant and prolonged impact on denudation and topography.

  7. Multi-process Late Quaternary landscape evolution modelling reveals lags in climate response over small spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-01-01

    Landscapes evolve in complex, non-linear ways over Quaternary timespans. Integrated geomorphological field studies usually yield plausible hypotheses about timing and impact of process activity. Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) have the potential to test and falsify these landscape evolution

  8. Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Nienhuis

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal dynamics or allogenic (external forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.

  9. Trans gene regulation in adaptive evolution: a genetic algorithm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, N; Nanjundiah, V

    1997-09-21

    This is a continuation of earlier studies on the evolution of infinite populations of haploid genotypes within a genetic algorithm framework. We had previously explored the evolutionary consequences of the existence of indeterminate-"plastic"-loci, where a plastic locus had a finite probability in each generation of functioning (being switched "on") or not functioning (being switched "off"). The relative probabilities of the two outcomes were assigned on a stochastic basis. The present paper examines what happens when the transition probabilities are biased by the presence of regulatory genes. We find that under certain conditions regulatory genes can improve the adaptation of the population and speed up the rate of evolution (on occasion at the cost of lowering the degree of adaptation). Also, the existence of regulatory loci potentiates selection in favour of plasticity. There is a synergistic effect of regulatory genes on plastic alleles: the frequency of such alleles increases when regulatory loci are present. Thus, phenotypic selection alone can be a potentiating factor in a favour of better adaptation. Copyright 1997 Academic Press Limited.

  10. Substructure evolution of Zircaloy-4 during creep and implications for the Modified Jogged-Screw model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, B.M., E-mail: morrow@lanl.gov [The Ohio State University, 2041 College Rd., 477 Watts Hall, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, MS G755, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Kozar, R.W.; Anderson, K.R. [Bettis Laboratory, Bechtel Marine Propulsion Corp., West Mifflin, PA 15122 (United States); Mills, M.J., E-mail: millsmj@mse.osu.edu [The Ohio State University, 2041 College Rd., 477 Watts Hall, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Several specimens of Zircaloy-4 were creep tested at a single stress-temperature condition, and interrupted at different accumulated strain levels. Substructural observations were performed using bright field scanning transmission electron microscopy (BF STEM). The dislocation substructure was characterized to ascertain how creep strain evolution impacts the Modified Jogged-Screw (MJS) model, which has previously been utilized to predict steady-state strain rates in Zircaloy-4. Special attention was paid to the evolution of individual model parameters with increasing strain. Results of model parameter measurements are reported and discussed, along with possible extensions to the MJS model.

  11. Evolution of Air Quality Model at the US EPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    At the US EPA, we have developed an air quality model, CMAQ, in the past 20+ years. Throughout the years, the model has been upgraded with respect to advancement of science. We have extended the model from regional to hemispheric. We have coupled it with meteorological model, WR...

  12. Instantaneous Shoreline Extraction Utilizing Integrated Spectrum and Shadow Analysis From LiDAR Data and High-resolution Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, I.-Chieh

    Shoreline delineation and shoreline change detection are expensive processes in data source acquisition and manual shoreline delineation. These costs confine the frequency and interval of shoreline mapping periods. In this dissertation, a new shoreline delineation approach was developed targeting on lowering the data source cost and reducing human labor. To lower the cost of data sources, we used the public domain LiDAR data sets and satellite images to delineate shorelines without the requirement of data sets being acquired simultaneously, which is a new concept in this field. To reduce the labor cost, we made improvements in classifying LiDAR points and satellite images. Analyzing shadow relations with topography to improve the satellite image classification performance is also a brand-new concept. The extracted shoreline of the proposed approach could achieve an accuracy of 1.495 m RMSE, or 4.452m at the 95% confidence level. Consequently, the proposed approach could successfully lower the cost and shorten the processing time, in other words, to increase the shoreline mapping frequency with a reasonable accuracy. However, the extracted shoreline may not compete with the shoreline extracted by aerial photogrammetric procedures in the aspect of accuracy. Hence, this is a trade-off between cost and accuracy. This approach consists of three phases, first, a shoreline extraction procedure based mainly on LiDAR point cloud data with multispectral information from satellite images. Second, an object oriented shoreline extraction procedure to delineate shoreline solely from satellite images; in this case WorldView-2 images were used. Third, a shoreline integration procedure combining these two shorelines based on actual shoreline changes and physical terrain properties. The actual data source cost would only be from the acquisition of satellite images. On the other hand, only two processes needed human attention. First, the shoreline within harbor areas needed to be

  13. Soil erosion and deposition in the new shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaolei; Nilsson, Christer; Pilotto, Francesca; Liu, Songping; Shi, Shaohua; Zeng, Bo

    2017-12-01

    During the last few decades, the construction of storage reservoirs worldwide has led to the formation of many new shorelines in former upland areas. After the formation of such shorelines, a dynamic phase of soil erosion and deposition follows. We explored the factors regulating soil dynamics in the shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River in China. We selected four study sites on the main stem and three on the tributaries in the upstream parts of the reservoir, and evaluated whether the sites close to the backwater tail (the point at which the river meets the reservoir) had more soil deposition than the sites far from the backwater tail. We also tested whether soil erosion differed between the main stem and the tributaries and across shorelines. We found that soil deposition in the new shorelines was higher close to the backwater tail and decreased downstream. Soil erosion was higher in the main stem than in the tributaries and higher at lower compared to higher shoreline altitudes. In the tributaries, erosion did not differ between higher and lower shoreline levels. Erosion increased with increasing fetch length, inundation duration and distance from the backwater tail, and decreased with increasing soil particle fineness. Our results provide a basis for identifying shorelines in need of restorative or protective measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. COMPARISON OF TWO SIMPLIFICATION METHODS FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM DIGITAL ORTHOPHOTO IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  15. Comparison of Two Simplification Methods for Shoreline Extraction from Digital Orthophoto Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Sen, A.; Selbesoglu, M. O.; Vārna, I.; Petersons, P.; Aykut, N. O.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  16. TOXICITY TRENDS DURING AN OIL SPILL BIOREMEDIATION EXPERIMENT ON A SANDY SHORELINE IN DELAWARE, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    A 13-week, refereed, inter-agency toxicity testing program involving five bioassay methods was used to document the effectiveness of shoreline bioremediation to accelerate toxicity reduction of an oiled sandy shoreline at Fowler Beach, Delaware, USA. The study was part of an inte...

  17. Phase-field model and its numerical solution for coring and microstructure evolution studies in alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchi, Patrice E. A.; Fattebert, Jean-Luc; Dorr, Milo R.; Wickett, Michael E.; Belak, James F.

    2011-03-01

    We describe an algorithm for the numerical solution of a phase-field model (PFM) of microstructure evolution in alloys using physical parameters from thermodynamic (CALPHAD) and kinetic databases. The coupled system of PFM equations includes a local order parameter, a quaternion representation of local crystal orientation and a species composition parameter. Time evolution of microstructures and alloy composition is obtained using an implicit time integration of the system. Physical parameters in databases can be obtained either through experiment or first-principles calculations. Application to coring studies and microstructure evolution of Au-Ni will be presented. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344

  18. Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

    2016-02-01

    Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

  19. Dynamic modelling of hydrogen evolution effects in the all-vanadium redox flow battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, A.A.; Al-Fetlawi, H.; Walsh, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    A model for hydrogen evolution in an all-vanadium redox flow battery is developed, coupling the dynamic conservation equations for charge, mass and momentum with a detailed description of the electrochemical reactions. Bubble formation at the negative electrode is included in the model, taking into account the attendant reduction in the liquid volume and the transfer of momentum between the gas and liquid phases, using a modified multiphase-mixture approach. Numerical simulations are compared to experimental data for different vanadium concentrations and mean linear electrolyte flow rates, demonstrating good agreement. Comparisons to simulations with negligible hydrogen evolution demonstrate the effect of gas evolution on the efficiency of the battery. The effects of reactant concentration, flow rate, applied current density and gas bubble diameter on hydrogen evolution are investigated. Significant variations in the gas volume fraction and the bubble velocity are predicted, depending on the operating conditions.

  20. The next generation of galaxy evolution models: A symbiosis of stellar populations and chemical abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotulla, Ralf

    2012-10-01

    Over its lifespan Hubble has invested significant effort into detailed observations of galaxies both in the local and distant universe. To extract the physical information from the observed {spectro-}photometry requires detailed and accurate models. Stellar population synthesis models are frequently used to obtain stellar masses, star formation rate, galaxy ages and star formation histories. Chemical evolution models offer another valuable and complementary approach to gain insight into many of the same aspects, yet these two methods have rarely been used in combination.Our proposed next generation of galaxy evolution models will help us improve our understanding of how galaxies form and evolve. Building on GALEV evolutionary synthesis models we incorporate state-of-the-art input physics for stellar evolution of binaries and rotating stars as well as new spectral libraries well matched to the modern observational capabilities. Our improved chemical evolution model allows us to self-consistently trace abundances of individual elements, fully accounting for the increasing initial abundances of successive stellar generations. GALEV will support variable Initial Mass Functions {IMF}, enabling us to test recent observational findings of a non-universal IMF by predicting chemical properties and integrated spectra in an integrated and consistent manner.HST is the perfect instrument for testing this approach. Its wide wavelength coverage from UV to NIR enables precise SED fitting, and with its spatial resolution we can compare the inferred chemical evolution to studies of star clusters and resolved stellar populations in nearby galaxies.

  1. Modeling Protoplanetary Disks to Characterize the Evolution of their Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Magdelena; van der Marel, Nienke; Williams, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Stars form from gravitationally collapsing clouds of gas and dust. Most young stars retain a protoplanetary disk for a few million years. This disk’s dust reemits stellar flux in the infrared, producing a spectral energy distribution (SED) observable by Spitzer and other telescopes. To understand the inner clearing of dust cavities and evolution in the SED, we used the Chiang & Goldreich two-layer approximation. We first wrote a python script based on refinements by Dullemond that includes a hot, puffed inner rim, shadowed mid region, flaring outer disk, and a variable inner cavity. This was then coupled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure to fit the observed SEDs of disks in the star forming Lupus region. The fitting procedure recovers physical characteristics of the disk including temperature, size, mass, and surface density. We compare the characteristics of circumstellar disks without holes and more evolved transition disks with cleared inner regions.

  2. Field guide for the protection and cleanup of oiled Arctic shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    Practical suggestions for the protection, treatment and cleanup of oiled shorelines during summer and open-water conditions are described. This manual was developed as a field guide to be used during spill response operations for the rapid identification of shoreline response options. Special attention is given to techniques that are normally available and appropriate for shoreline types and coastal environmental setting that are typical of Arctic regions. The guide is divided into four main sections: (1) shoreline protection, (2) treatment strategy by shoreline type, (3) treatment or cleanup methods, and (4) response strategies for specific environments. The importance of the type and volume of oil spilled, and the environmental factors that should be taken into account in the event of a spill (time of year, weather, ice and wave conditions) are stressed. The presence of sensitive resources such as wildlife, fish stocks, plant communities and human-use activities are also considered. tabs., figs

  3. Mathematical modeling of the evolution of a simple biological system

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gonsalves, M.J.B.D.; Neetu, S.; Krishnan, K.P.; Attri, K.; LokaBharathi, P.A.

    be constructed to simulate the observed movement. The comparison between the observed data and the predictions based on the model then tell us how satisfactory the model is. In physical systems the model is usually based on fundamental principles of physics...

  4. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-01-01

    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  5. Hybrid models for the simulation of microstructural evolution influenced by coupled, multiple physical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tikare, Veena [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez-Rivera, Efrain [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Madison, Jonathan D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Holm, Elizabeth Ann [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Patterson, Burton R. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering; Homer, Eric R. [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2013-09-01

    Most materials microstructural evolution processes progress with multiple processes occurring simultaneously. In this work, we have concentrated on the processes that are active in nuclear materials, in particular, nuclear fuels. These processes are coarsening, nucleation, differential diffusion, phase transformation, radiation-induced defect formation and swelling, often with temperature gradients present. All these couple and contribute to evolution that is unique to nuclear fuels and materials. Hybrid model that combines elements from the Potts Monte Carlo, phase-field models and others have been developed to address these multiple physical processes. These models are described and applied to several processes in this report. An important feature of the models developed are that they are coded as applications within SPPARKS, a Sandiadeveloped framework for simulation at the mesoscale of microstructural evolution processes by kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This makes these codes readily accessible and adaptable for future applications.

  6. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  7. New tools and technologies to manage operational data and help in decision-making concerning shoreline pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouriou, V.; Quintin, K.; Legrand, S.; Mazurier, A.; Le Junter, Y.; Gicquel, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addressed the issue of effectively collecting and organizing all data related to an oil spill. It referred to lessons learned from the Erika and Prestige oil spills which polluted the French coastal waters. A user-friendly tool for data management and storage for shoreline pollution was developed following the 2 incidents. The tool was developed under the auspices of the Argepol project and has helped response teams and decision-makers use web technologies and interactive cartography to access, capture and make use of data about shoreline landings, collected waste, disposed waste, manpower, equipment requirements, evolution of the spill and cleaning. The tool has allowed maximum flexibility regarding connections and possible adaptations to other systems, particularly foreign ones. A prototype was tested and validated by simulating an exercise involving the marine pollution (POLMAR) response teams. The tool allows users to create and edit geographical information online, modify databases and shore information using a web browser. Improvements are still in progress and regular updates are scheduled in order to keep the tool in use for the long term. 11 refs., 6 figs

  8. The management of shoreline protection and treatment operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    The management of shoreline cleaning operations in the event of an oil spill, was discussed. An eight-step approach was introduced which was based on the definition of objectives and strategies. The discussion included evaluation of the feasibility of each of these strategies, as well as the effects of the proposed actions. It was emphasized that apart from natural recovery, any response action will have an effect either directly, by the protection or treatment actions, or indirectly, by the support actions, on the shore zone or the adjacent backshore. The main purpose of a response is to accelerate natural recovery. This new response approach can be an effective management tool, since the use of standard terms and strategy statements give operations personnel a well defined set of instruction which reduce the potential for misinterpretation. 4 refs., 9 figs

  9. Shoreline oil cleanup, recovery and treatment evaluation system (SOCRATES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rusin, J.; Lunel, T.; Sommerville, M.; Tyler, A.; Marshall, I.

    1996-01-01

    A beach cleanup computer system was developed to mitigate the impact of shoreline oiling. The program, entitled SOCRATES, was meant to determine the most suitable cleanup methodologies for a range of different spill scenarios. The development, operation and capabilities of SOCRATES was described, with recent examples of successful use during the Sea Empress spill. The factors which influenced decision making and which were central to the numerical solution were: (1) the volumetric removal rate of oil, (2) area removal rate of oil, (3) length of oil slick removed per hour, (4) volumetric removal rate of oily waste, (5) area of the oil slick, (6) length of the oil slick, (7) volume of liquid emulsion, and (8) length of beach. 14 figs

  10. Towards a phase field model of the microstructural evolution of duplex steel with experimental verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Stefan Othmar; Voorhees, P.W.; Lauridsen, Erik Mejdal

    2012-01-01

    A phase field model to study the microstructural evolution of a polycrystalline dual-phase material with conserved phase fraction has been implemented, and 2D simulations have been performed. For 2D simulations, the model predicts the cubic growth well-known for diffusion-controlled systems. Some...... interphase boundaries are found to show a persistent non-constant curvature, which seems to be a feature of multi-phase materials. Finally, it is briefly outlined how this model is to be applied to investigate microstructural evolution in duplex steel. © (2012) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland....

  11. Megascale rhythmic shoreline forms on a beach with multiple bars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The study, carried out in 2003 and 2006 at the Lubiatowo Coastal ResearchStation (Poland, located on the non-tidal southern Baltic coast(tidal range < 0.06 m, focused on larger rhythmic forms (mega-cusps withwavelengths in the interval 500 m > Lc > 20 m. Statistical analyses of detailed shoreline configurations were performed mostly with the Discrete Wavelet Transformmethod (DWT. The beach is composed of fine sand with grain diameter D50 ≈ 0.22 mm, which produces 4 longshore sandbars and a gently sloping seabed with β = 0.015. The analysis confirms the key role of bars in hydro- and morphodynamic surf zone processes.The hypothesis was therefore set up that, in a surf zone with multiple bars, the bars and mega-scale shoreline rhythmic forms form one integrated physical system; experimental evidence to substantiate this hypothesis was also sought.In such a system not only do self-regulation processes include swash zone phenomena, they also incorporate processes in offshore surf zone locations.The longshore dimensions of large cusps are thus related to the distances between periodically active large bed forms (bars. The spatial dimension of bar system activity (number of active bars depends, at a given time scale, on the associated hydrodynamic conditions. It was assumed that such a time scale could include either the development and duration of a storm, or a period of stable, yet distinct waves, capable of remodelling the beach configuration.The indentation to wavelength ratio of mega-cusps for the studied non-tidal dissipative environment may be one order of magnitude greater than for mesotidal, reflective beaches.

  12. Evolution of computational models in BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharm, Martin; Gebhardt, Tom; Touré, Vasundra; Bagnacani, Andrea; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Waltemath, Dagmar

    2018-04-12

    A useful model is one that is being (re)used. The development of a successful model does not finish with its publication. During reuse, models are being modified, i.e. expanded, corrected, and refined. Even small changes in the encoding of a model can, however, significantly affect its interpretation. Our motivation for the present study is to identify changes in models and make them transparent and traceable. We analysed 13734 models from BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository. For each model, we studied the frequencies and types of updates between its first and latest release. To demonstrate the impact of changes, we explored the history of a Repressilator model in BioModels Database. We observed continuous updates in the majority of models. Surprisingly, even the early models are still being modified. We furthermore detected that many updates target annotations, which improves the information one can gain from models. To support the analysis of changes in model repositories we developed MoSt, an online tool for visualisations of changes in models. The scripts used to generate the data and figures for this study are available from GitHub https://github.com/binfalse/BiVeS-StatsGenerator and as a Docker image at https://hub.docker.com/r/binfalse/bives-statsgenerator/ . The website https://most.bio.informatik.uni-rostock.de/ provides interactive access to model versions and their evolutionary statistics. The reuse of models is still impeded by a lack of trust and documentation. A detailed and transparent documentation of all aspects of the model, including its provenance, will improve this situation. Knowledge about a model's provenance can avoid the repetition of mistakes that others already faced. More insights are gained into how the system evolves from initial findings to a profound understanding. We argue that it is the responsibility of the maintainers of model repositories to offer transparent model provenance to their users.

  13. A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohmann, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Laepple, T.; Leduc, G.; Kim, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate

  14. Galactic chemical evolution in hierarchical formation models - I. Early-type galaxies in the local Universe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arrigoni, Matías; Trager, Scott C.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Gibson, Brad K.

    We study the metallicities and abundance ratios of early-type galaxies in cosmological semi-analytic models (SAMs) within the hierarchical galaxy formation paradigm. To achieve this we implemented a detailed galactic chemical evolution model and can now predict abundances of individual elements for

  15. Galactic chemical evolution in hierarchical formation models : I. Early-type galaxies in the local Universe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arrigoni, Matias; Trager, Scott C.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Gibson, Brad K.

    2010-01-01

    We study the metallicities and abundance ratios of early-type galaxies in cosmological semi-analytic models (SAMs) within the hierarchical galaxy formation paradigm. To achieve this we implemented a detailed galactic chemical evolution model and can now predict abundances of individual elements for

  16. Acoustic backscatter models of fish: Gradual or punctuated evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, John K.

    2004-05-01

    Sound-scattering characteristics of aquatic organisms are routinely investigated using theoretical and numerical models. Development of the inverse approach by van Holliday and colleagues in the 1970s catalyzed the development and validation of backscatter models for fish and zooplankton. As the understanding of biological scattering properties increased, so did the number and computational sophistication of backscatter models. The complexity of data used to represent modeled organisms has also evolved in parallel to model development. Simple geometric shapes representing body components or the whole organism have been replaced by anatomically accurate representations derived from imaging sensors such as computer-aided tomography (CAT) scans. In contrast, Medwin and Clay (1998) recommend that fish and zooplankton should be described by simple theories and models, without acoustically superfluous extensions. Since van Holliday's early work, how has data and computational complexity influenced accuracy and precision of model predictions? How has the understanding of aquatic organism scattering properties increased? Significant steps in the history of model development will be identified and changes in model results will be characterized and compared. [Work supported by ONR and the Alaska Fisheries Science Center.

  17. National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.

    2005-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in

  18. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states bordering the Gulf of Mexico (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) represents the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not

  19. On theoretical models of gene expression evolution with random genetic drift and natural selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osamu Ogasawara

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The relative contributions of natural selection and random genetic drift are a major source of debate in the study of gene expression evolution, which is hypothesized to serve as a bridge from molecular to phenotypic evolution. It has been suggested that the conflict between views is caused by the lack of a definite model of the neutral hypothesis, which can describe the long-run behavior of evolutionary change in mRNA abundance. Therefore previous studies have used inadequate analogies with the neutral prediction of other phenomena, such as amino acid or nucleotide sequence evolution, as the null hypothesis of their statistical inference.In this study, we introduced two novel theoretical models, one based on neutral drift and the other assuming natural selection, by focusing on a common property of the distribution of mRNA abundance among a variety of eukaryotic cells, which reflects the result of long-term evolution. Our results demonstrated that (1 our models can reproduce two independently found phenomena simultaneously: the time development of gene expression divergence and Zipf's law of the transcriptome; (2 cytological constraints can be explicitly formulated to describe long-term evolution; (3 the model assuming that natural selection optimized relative mRNA abundance was more consistent with previously published observations than the model of optimized absolute mRNA abundances.The models introduced in this study give a formulation of evolutionary change in the mRNA abundance of each gene as a stochastic process, on the basis of previously published observations. This model provides a foundation for interpreting observed data in studies of gene expression evolution, including identifying an adequate time scale for discriminating the effect of natural selection from that of random genetic drift of selectively neutral variations.

  20. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  1. Evolution of perturbations in distinct classes of canonical scalar field models of dark energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassal, H. K.

    2010-01-01

    Dark energy must cluster in order to be consistent with the equivalence principle. The background evolution can be effectively modeled by either a scalar field or by a barotropic fluid. The fluid model can be used to emulate perturbations in a scalar field model of dark energy, though this model breaks down at large scales. In this paper we study evolution of dark energy perturbations in canonical scalar field models: the classes of thawing and freezing models. The dark energy equation of state evolves differently in these classes. In freezing models, the equation of state deviates from that of a cosmological constant at early times. For thawing models, the dark energy equation of state remains near that of the cosmological constant at early times and begins to deviate from it only at late times. Since the dark energy equation of state evolves differently in these classes, the dark energy perturbations too evolve differently. In freezing models, since the equation of state deviates from that of a cosmological constant at early times, there is a significant difference in evolution of matter perturbations from those in the cosmological constant model. In comparison, matter perturbations in thawing models differ from the cosmological constant only at late times. This difference provides an additional handle to distinguish between these classes of models and this difference should manifest itself in the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect.

  2. Medium-term erosion simulation of an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.R.; Willgoose, G.R.

    2000-01-01

    This study forms part of a collaborative project designed to validate the long-term erosion predictions of the SIBERIA landform evolution model on rehabilitated mine sites. The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms resulting from runoff and erosion over many years. SIBERIA needs to be calibrated before evaluating whether it correctly models the observed evolution of rehabilitated mine landforms. A field study to collect data to calibrate SIBERIA was conducted at the abandoned Scinto 6 uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The data were used to fit parameter values to a sediment loss model and a rainfall-runoff model. The derived runoff and erosion model parameter values were used in SIBERIA to simulate 50 years of erosion by concentrated flow on the batters of the abandoned site. The SIBERIA runs correctly simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The observed gully position, depth, volume, and morphology on the waste rock dump were quantitatively compared with the SIBERIA simulations. The close similarities between the observed and simulated gully features indicate that SIBERIA can accurately predict the rate of gully development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. SIBERIA is an appropriate model for assessment of erosional stability of rehabilitated mine sites over time spans of around 50 years. Copyright (2000) CSIRO Australia

  3. Modelling rate distributions using character compatibility: implications for morphological evolution among fossil invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Peter J

    2012-02-23

    Rate distributions are important considerations when testing hypotheses about morphological evolution or phylogeny. They also have implications about general processes underlying character evolution. Molecular systematists often assume that rates are Poisson processes with gamma distributions. However, morphological change is the product of multiple probabilistic processes and should theoretically be affected by hierarchical integration of characters. Both factors predict lognormal rate distributions. Here, a simple inverse modelling approach assesses the best single-rate, gamma and lognormal models given observed character compatibility for 115 invertebrate groups. Tests reject the single-rate model for nearly all cases. Moreover, the lognormal outperforms the gamma for character change rates and (especially) state derivation rates. The latter in particular is consistent with integration affecting morphological character evolution.

  4. Kinematic evolution of fold and thrust belts. Insights from experimental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueta, Keiichi

    2011-01-01

    Physical experiments were performed to gain a better understanding on the kinematic evolution of fold and thrust belts. The present study focuses on deformation of sedimentary cover caused by thrust and reverse movements along the basement fault. Our physical models comprise dry quartz sand representing brittle sedimentary rock and viscous silicone polymer representing overpressured mudstone. Computerized X-ray tomography was applied to the experiments to analyze the kinematic evolution of fold and thrust belts. In the sand models, the width of deformation zone above thrust was wider than that above reverse fault, because back thrust developed on the hanging wall of reverse fault. Within the physical models composed of dry sand and silicone polymer, minor folds and thrusts with minor displacement developed on the footwall of the major monoclinal flexure. These results compare well with the geometry and kinematic evolution of the fold and thrust belts in Japan. (author)

  5. Towards GLUE 2: evolution of the computing element information model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreozzi, S; Burke, S; Field, L; Konya, B

    2008-01-01

    A key advantage of Grid systems is the ability to share heterogeneous resources and services between traditional administrative and organizational domains. This ability enables virtual pools of resources to be created and assigned to groups of users. Resource awareness, the capability of users or user agents to have knowledge about the existence and state of resources, is required in order utilize the resource. This awareness requires a description of the services and resources typically defined via a community-agreed information model. One of the most popular information models, used by a number of Grid infrastructures, is the GLUE Schema, which provides a common language for describing Grid resources. Other approaches exist, however they follow different modeling strategies. The presence of different flavors of information models for Grid resources is a barrier for enabling inter-Grid interoperability. In order to solve this problem, the GLUE Working Group in the context of the Open Grid Forum was started. The purpose of the group is to oversee a major redesign of the GLUE Schema which should consider the successful modeling choices and flaws that have emerged from practical experience and modeling choices from other initiatives. In this paper, we present the status of the new model for describing computing resources as the first output from the working group with the aim of dissemination and soliciting feedback from the community

  6. Size Evolution and Stochastic Models: Explaining Ostracod Size through Probabilistic Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, M.; Decker, S.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2014-12-01

    The biovolume of animals has functioned as an important benchmark for measuring evolution throughout geologic time. In our project, we examined the observed average body size of ostracods over time in order to understand the mechanism of size evolution in these marine organisms. The body size of ostracods has varied since the beginning of the Ordovician, where the first true ostracods appeared. We created a stochastic branching model to create possible evolutionary trees of ostracod size. Using stratigraphic ranges for ostracods compiled from over 750 genera in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology, we calculated overall speciation and extinction rates for our model. At each timestep in our model, new lineages can evolve or existing lineages can become extinct. Newly evolved lineages are assigned sizes based on their parent genera. We parameterized our model to generate neutral and directional changes in ostracod size to compare with the observed data. New sizes were chosen via a normal distribution, and the neutral model selected new sizes differentials centered on zero, allowing for an equal chance of larger or smaller ostracods at each speciation. Conversely, the directional model centered the distribution on a negative value, giving a larger chance of smaller ostracods. Our data strongly suggests that the overall direction of ostracod evolution has been following a model that directionally pushes mean ostracod size down, shying away from a neutral model. Our model was able to match the magnitude of size decrease. Our models had a constant linear decrease while the actual data had a much more rapid initial rate followed by a constant size. The nuance of the observed trends ultimately suggests a more complex method of size evolution. In conclusion, probabilistic methods can provide valuable insight into possible evolutionary mechanisms determining size evolution in ostracods.

  7. Recent evolution of theoretical models in inner shell photoionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combet Farnoux, F.

    1978-01-01

    This paper is a brief review of various atomic theoretical models recently developed to calculate photoionization cross sections in the low energy range (from the far ultraviolet to the soft X ray region). For both inner and outer shells concerned, we emphasize the necessity to go beyond the independent particle models by means of the introduction of correlation effects in both initial and final states. The basic physical ideas of as elaborated models as Random Phase Approximation with exchange, Many Body Perturbation Theory and R matrix Theory are outlined and summarized. As examples, the results of some calculations are shown and compared with experiment

  8. Towards GLUE2 evolution of the computing element information model

    CERN Document Server

    Andreozzi, S; Field, L; Kónya, B

    2008-01-01

    A key advantage of Grid systems is the ability to share heterogeneous resources and services between traditional administrative and organizational domains. This ability enables virtual pools of resources to be created and assigned to groups of users. Resource awareness, the capability of users or user agents to have knowledge about the existence and state of resources, is required in order utilize the resource. This awareness requires a description of the services and resources typically defined via a community-agreed information model. One of the most popular information models, used by a number of Grid infrastructures, is the GLUE Schema, which provides a common language for describing Grid resources. Other approaches exist, however they follow different modeling strategies. The presence of different flavors of information models for Grid resources is a barrier for enabling inter-Grid interoperability. In order to solve this problem, the GLUE Working Group in the context of the Open Grid Forum was started. ...

  9. Numerical modelling of damage evolution in ingot forging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Peter; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels Oluf

    2015-01-01

    The ingot forging process is numerically simulated applying both the Shima-Oyane porous plasticity model as a coupled damage model and the uncoupled normalized Cockcroft & Latham criterion. Four different cases including two different lower die angles (120º and 180º) and two different sizes of feed...... (400mm and 800mm) are analysed. Comparison of the simulation results with recommendations in literature on ingot forging, indicates the normalized Cockcroft & Latham damage criterion to be the most realistic of the two....

  10. Consistent Evolution of Software Artifacts and Non-Functional Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-14

    induce bad software performance)? 15. SUBJECT TERMS EOARD, Nano particles, Photo-Acoustic Sensors, Model-Driven Engineering ( MDE ), Software Performance...Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy Email: vittorio.cortellessa@univaq.it Web : http: // www. di. univaq. it/ cortelle/ Phone...Model-Driven Engineering ( MDE ), Software Performance Engineering (SPE), Change Propagation, Performance Antipatterns. For sake of readability of the

  11. Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

  12. Monitoring of shoreline changes using remote sensing (case study: coastal city of Bandar Abbas)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamassoki, E; Amiri, H; Soleymani, Z

    2014-01-01

    Shoreline change is one of the most common natural processes that prevail upon coastal areas. The most important aspect of managing coastal areas is identifying the location and change over time of shoreline. This requires frequent monitoring of the shoreline using satellite imagery over time. We have used imagery from the Landsat TM-5 sensor from 1984,1998 and 2009 in order to monitor shoreline changes using the Max Likelihood Classification method (MLC) in Bandar Abbas city. Monitoring showed that during the period from 1984 to 1998 the area of coastline of Bandar Abbas increased 804.09 hectares. The increase over the next 11-year period was as less, at only 140.81 hectares. In 2009 there was a drastic decrease in shoreline, with the total length of shoreline decreasing from 330 km to 271 km during the period from 1984 to 2009.Results showed that in each period in which the area of coastline advanced, changes in length of shoreline had been less prominent

  13. Genetic demixing and evolution in linear stepping stone models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korolev, K. S.; Avlund, Mikkel; Hallatschek, Oskar; Nelson, David R.

    2010-04-01

    Results for mutation, selection, genetic drift, and migration in a one-dimensional continuous population are reviewed and extended. The population is described by a continuous limit of the stepping stone model, which leads to the stochastic Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation with additional terms describing mutations. Although the stepping stone model was first proposed for population genetics, it is closely related to “voter models” of interest in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The stepping stone model can also be regarded as an approximation to the dynamics of a thin layer of actively growing pioneers at the frontier of a colony of micro-organisms undergoing a range expansion on a Petri dish. The population tends to segregate into monoallelic domains. This segregation slows down genetic drift and selection because these two evolutionary forces can only act at the boundaries between the domains; the effects of mutation, however, are not significantly affected by the segregation. Although fixation in the neutral well-mixed (or “zero-dimensional”) model occurs exponentially in time, it occurs only algebraically fast in the one-dimensional model. An unusual sublinear increase is also found in the variance of the spatially averaged allele frequency with time. If selection is weak, selective sweeps occur exponentially fast in both well-mixed and one-dimensional populations, but the time constants are different. The relatively unexplored problem of evolutionary dynamics at the edge of an expanding circular colony is studied as well. Also reviewed are how the observed patterns of genetic diversity can be used for statistical inference and the differences are highlighted between the well-mixed and one-dimensional models. Although the focus is on two alleles or variants, q -allele Potts-like models of gene segregation are considered as well. Most of the analytical results are checked with simulations and could be tested against recent spatial

  14. Standard cosmological evolution in the f(R) model to Kaluza-Klein cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aghmohammadi, A; Abolhassani, M R; Saaidi, Kh; Vajdi, A

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, using f(R) theory of gravity we explicitly calculate cosmological evolution in the presence of a perfect fluid source in four- and five-dimensional space-time in which this cosmological evolution in self-creation is presented by Reddy et al (2009 Int. J. Theor. Phys. 48 10). An exact cosmological model is presented using a relation between Einstein's gravity field equation components due to a metric with the same component from f(R) theory of gravity. Some physics and kinematical properties of the model are also discussed.

  15. Mesoscale modeling and simulation of microstructure evolution during dynamic recrystallization of a Ni-based superalloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Fei [University of Nottingham, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Institute of Forming Technology and Equipment, Shanghai (China); Cui, Zhenshan [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Institute of Forming Technology and Equipment, Shanghai (China); Ou, Hengan [University of Nottingham, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Long, Hui [University of Sheffield, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-15

    Microstructural evolution and plastic flow characteristics of a Ni-based superalloy were investigated using a simulative model that couples the basic metallurgical principle of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) with the two-dimensional (2D) cellular automaton (CA). Variation of dislocation density with local strain of deformation is considered for accurate determination of the microstructural evolution during DRX. The grain topography, the grain size and the recrystallized fraction can be well predicted by using the developed CA model, which enables to the establishment of the relationship between the flow stress, dislocation density, recrystallized fraction volume, recrystallized grain size and the thermomechanical parameters. (orig.)

  16. Numerical modeling of plasma plume evolution against ambient background gas in laser blow off experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, Bhavesh G.; Das, Amita; Kaw, Predhiman; Singh, Rajesh; Kumar, Ajai

    2012-01-01

    Two dimensional numerical modelling based on simplified hydrodynamic evolution for an expanding plasma plume (created by laser blow off) against an ambient background gas has been carried out. A comparison with experimental observations shows that these simulations capture most features of the plasma plume expansion. The plume location and other gross features are reproduced as per the experimental observation in quantitative detail. The plume shape evolution and its dependence on the ambient background gas are in good qualitative agreement with the experiment. This suggests that a simplified hydrodynamic expansion model is adequate for the description of plasma plume expansion.

  17. Detection of Oil near Shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Garcia-Pineda

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available During any marine oil spill, floating oil slicks that reach shorelines threaten a wide array of coastal habitats. To assess the presence of oil near shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH oil spill, we scanned the library of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imagery collected during the event to determine which images intersected shorelines and appeared to contain oil. In total, 715 SAR images taken during the DWH spill were analyzed and processed, with 188 of the images clearly showing oil. Of these, 156 SAR images showed oil within 10 km of the shoreline with appropriate weather conditions for the detection of oil on SAR data. We found detectable oil in SAR images within 10 km of the shoreline from west Louisiana to west Florida, including near beaches, marshes, and islands. The high number of SAR images collected in Barataria Bay, Louisiana in 2010 allowed for the creation of a nearshore oiling persistence map. This analysis shows that, in some areas inside Barataria Bay, floating oil was detected on as many as 29 different days in 2010. The nearshore areas with persistent floating oil corresponded well with areas where ground survey crews discovered heavy shoreline oiling. We conclude that satellite-based SAR imagery can detect oil slicks near shorelines, even in sheltered areas. These data can help assess potential shoreline oil exposure without requiring boats or aircraft. This method can be particularly helpful when shoreline assessment crews are hampered by difficult access or, in the case of DWH, a particularly large spatial and temporal spill extent.

  18. Oyster reefs as natural breakwaters mitigate shoreline loss and facilitate fisheries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Shorelines at the interface of marine, estuarine and terrestrial biomes are among the most degraded and threatened habitats in the coastal zone because of their sensitivity to sea level rise, storms and increased human utilization. Previous efforts to protect shorelines have largely involved constructing bulkheads and seawalls which can detrimentally affect nearshore habitats. Recently, efforts have shifted towards "living shoreline" approaches that include biogenic breakwater reefs. Our study experimentally tested the efficacy of breakwater reefs constructed of oyster shell for protecting eroding coastal shorelines and their effect on nearshore fish and shellfish communities. Along two different stretches of eroding shoreline, we created replicated pairs of subtidal breakwater reefs and established unaltered reference areas as controls. At both sites we measured shoreline and bathymetric change and quantified oyster recruitment, fish and mobile macro-invertebrate abundances. Breakwater reef treatments mitigated shoreline retreat by more than 40% at one site, but overall vegetation retreat and erosion rates were high across all treatments and at both sites. Oyster settlement and subsequent survival were observed at both sites, with mean adult densities reaching more than eighty oysters m(-2 at one site. We found the corridor between intertidal marsh and oyster reef breakwaters supported higher abundances and different communities of fishes than control plots without oyster reef habitat. Among the fishes and mobile invertebrates that appeared to be strongly enhanced were several economically-important species. Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus were the most clearly enhanced (+297% by the presence of breakwater reefs, while red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus (+108%, spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus (+88% and flounder (Paralichthys sp. (+79% also benefited. Although the vertical relief of the breakwater reefs was reduced over the course of our study

  19. The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Fontanet, J.; López, C.; Fernández, E.

    2015-07-01

    The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)

  20. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  1. Analysis of Decadal-Scale Shoreline Change along the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Canadian Arctic), using Landsat Satellite Imagery and GIS techniques from 1984 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, R. D.; Murray, M. S.; Wells, P.

    2016-12-01

    Increased accuracy in estimating coastal change along localized segments of the Canadian Arctic coast is essential, in order to identify plausible adaptation initiatives to deal with the effects of climate change. This paper quantifies rates of shoreline movement along an 11 km segment of the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Northwest Territories, Canada), using an innovative modelling technique - Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR). Approximately two dozen shorelines, obtained from high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery were analyzed. Shorelines were extracted using the band ratio method and compiled in ArcMapTM to determine decadal trends of coastal change. The unique geometry of Paulatuk facilitated an independent analysis of the western and eastern sections of the study area. Long-term (1984-2014) and short-term (1984-2003) erosion and accretion rates were calculated using the Linear Regression and End Point Rate methods respectively. Results reveal an elevated rate of erosion for the western section of the hamlet over the long-term (-1.1 m/yr), compared to the eastern portion (-0.92 m/yr). The study indicates a significant alongshore increase in the rates of erosion on both portions of the study area, over the short-term period 1984 to 2003. Mean annual erosion rates increased over the short-term along the western segment (-1.4 m/yr), while the eastern shoreline retreated at a rate of -1.3 m/yr over the same period. The analysis indicates that an amalgamation of factors may be responsible for the patterns of land loss experienced along Paulatuk. These include increased sea-surface temperature coupled with dwindling arctic ice and elevated storm hydrodynamics. The analysis further reveals that the coastline along the eastern portion of the hamlet, where the majority of the population reside, is vulnerable to a high rate of shoreline erosion.

  2. An agent based model of the evolution of supplier networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Earnest, David C.; Wilkinson, Ian F.

    2018-01-01

    , in industries characterized by highly specialized training, plants and machinery dedicated to specific products and other high product-specific transaction costs, we should observe more specialization at low levels of product complexity but less at high levels. The model contributes to our understanding...

  3. Algorithm for dealing with depressions in dynamic landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2006-01-01

    Depressions in landscapes function as buffers for water and sediment. A landscape with depressions has less runoff, less erosion and more sedimentation than a landscape without depressions. Sinks in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be existing features that correctly represent depressions in

  4. Cancer evolution and immunity in a rat colorectal carcinogenesis model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vannucci, Luca; Fišerová, Anna; Horváth, Ondřej; Rossmann, Pavel; Mosca, F.; Pospíšil, Miloslav

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 25, - (2004), s. 973-981 ISSN 1019-6439 R&D Projects: GA ČR GV312/98/K034; GA AV ČR IAA7020006 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5020903 Keywords : cancer * cancer model * colorectal adenocarcinoma Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 3.056, year: 2004

  5. The Historical Evolution of Theories and Conceptual Models for Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Joellen W.

    The development of nursing models can be traced to the inception of nursing as a profession. Florence Nightingale laid the foundation for current nursing practice and differentiated nursing from medicine. The late 19th and early 20th centuries contributed a number of important nurse theorists, better known for other contributions to the neophyte…

  6. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  7. Evolution of the Bangalore ICT Cluster: The "Crystal Growth" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manimala, Mathew J.

    2006-01-01

    In about twenty years, starting in 1984, Bangalore has become the fourth best "Global Hub of Technological Innovation", according to Business Week. This article reviews the major milestones in Bangalore's development and the interactive roles of government, universities and private entrepreneurs. The author offers a new model: innovation…

  8. On the Tidal Evolution of the Earth-Moon System: A Cosmological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbab A. I.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We have presented a cosmological model for the tidal evolution of the Earth-Moon system. We have found that the expansion of the universe has immense consequences on our local systems. The model can be compared with the present observational data. The close approach problem inflicting the known tidal theory is averted in this model. We have also shown that the astronomical and geological changes of our local systems are of the order of Hubble constant.

  9. Geochemical modelling study on the age and evolution of the groundwater at the Romuvaara site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitkaenen, P; Vuorinen, U; Leino-Forsman, H [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland); Snellman, M [Imatran Voima Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-09-01

    The objective of the study was to interpret the processes and factors which control the hydrogeochemistry (e.g. pH and redox conditions) in the radioactive waste disposal environment. A model of the hydrogeochemical evolution and the chemical flowpaths in different parts of the bedrock at the Romuvaara (in Finland) site has been created. The significance of chemical reactions along different flowpaths is calculated. Furthermore, the consistency of the hydrogeochemical model and the hydrogeological model is examined. (107 refs.).

  10. Modeling the evolution of natural cliffs subject to weathering. 1, Limit analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Utili, Stefano; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2011-01-01

    Retrogressive landsliding evolution of natural slopes subjected to weathering has been modeled by assuming Mohr-Coulomb material behavior and by using an analytical method. The case of weathering-limited slope conditions, with complete erosion of the accumulated debris, has been modeled. The limit analysis upper-bound method is used to study slope instability induced by a homogeneous decrease of material strength in space and time. The only assumption required in the model concerns the degree...

  11. Geochemical modelling study on the age and evolution of the groundwater at the Romuvaara site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitkaenen, P.; Vuorinen, U.; Leino-Forsman, H.; Snellman, M.

    1996-09-01

    The objective of the study was to interpret the processes and factors which control the hydrogeochemistry (e.g. pH and redox conditions) in the radioactive waste disposal environment. A model of the hydrogeochemical evolution and the chemical flowpaths in different parts of the bedrock at the Romuvaara (in Finland) site has been created. The significance of chemical reactions along different flowpaths is calculated. Furthermore, the consistency of the hydrogeochemical model and the hydrogeological model is examined. (107 refs.)

  12. Historical sediment budget and present-day catchment-shoreline coupling at Twofold Bay, southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, T.; Oliver, T.; Hudson, J.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    Considering projected impacts of sea-level rise in the 21st century on sandy shorelines, an understanding of long-term sediment budget for individual beaches or coastal compartments supports assessments of shoreline stability. We examined a low-lying coastal beach-ridge barrier in Twofold Bay using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating , airborne LiDAR, sedimentological analysis and seismic data to assess changes in rates of sediment supply to this shoreline through time. Calculations of barrier volume, Twofold Bay bay-floor sediment volume and estimates of sediment delivery from a proximal river system provide a broad-scale assessment of past-sediment budget. Between ca. 7500 years ago and 1500 years ago, sources of sediment for shoreline progradation at Boydtown were bay-floor sediments either inherited or moved into the embayment during late-stage transgression. Progradation rate between ca. 7500-1500 years ago was 0.16 m/yr with subaerial barrier volume accumulating at 0.46 m3/m/yr. Between ca. 1500 years and present day, the Towamba River to the south has delivered additional sediment to the Boydtown shoreline more than doubling shoreline progradation rate to 0.65 m/yr and subaerial barrier accumulation has risen to 1.83 m3/m/yr. The delivery of fluvial sediment from the Towamba River was restricted to the past ca. 1500 years as prior to this, estuary infilling prevented floods delivering sediments to the bay. This recent historical coupling of river sand supply and shoreline progradation rate implies that anthropogenic modifications to the Towamba River catchment such as river damming, or climatic changes reducing rainfall or runoff, would negatively impact the Boydtown Beach shoreline. Conversely increased rainfall or deforestation may increase sediment discharge due to upstream erosion. The Boydtown shoreline within Twofold Bay may be able to maintain its current position in the coming century if fluvial sediment delivery continues. The fact that

  13. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of ocean shoreline location on the Virginia barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluska, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Shoreline change along the Eastern Atlantic shore of Virginia has been studied for the individual barrier islands but not as an integrated system. This study combines the Atlantic shoreline locations for eleven barrier islands obtained from LANDSAT 5, 7, and 8 images. Approximately 250 shoreline locations over a 24-year period from Jan 1990 to Dec 2014 were extracted from the digitized shoreline data at 338 transects. The resulting 338 by 250 matrix was analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique. The first four principal components (PC) explained 86 percent of the sample variance. Since the data was not detrended, the first PC was the overall trend of the data with a discontinuity in 2004-2005. The 2004-2005 interval included storm events and large shoreline changes. PCs 2 to 4 reflect the effects of El Nino events and tropical and non-tropical storms. Eigenvectors 1 to 4 all show the effects of the nine inlets in the island group. Eigenvector (EV) 1 explains 59 percent of the shoreline spatial variance and shows the largest changes at the northern and southern island ends. EVs 2 to 4 reflect the pattern of EV1 but at sequentially smaller percentages of the spatial variance. As a group, the eleven islands are losing ocean side shoreline. The lone exception is Hog Island. Sea level had the strongest correlation with the shoreline loss trend of PC1. The coefficient of determination was 0.41. The NAO and MEI also correlated with PC1 with correlations of determination of 0.05 and 0.12 respectively. These confidence level for the three factors was better than 99 percent. Sea level also correlated with PC3 and PC4. The PCs as a group show that the year intervals 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 had large effects on the shoreline change pattern for the island group. EVs 1 to 4 had the highest range of shoreline change at the island ends indicating the effect the changes of the inlets have on the adjacent islands. The smaller islands as a group had a higher level

  14. Space evolution model and empirical analysis of an urban public transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Yi; Shao, Feng-jing; Sun, Ren-cheng; Li, Shu-jing

    2012-07-01

    This study explores the space evolution of an urban public transport network, using empirical evidence and a simulation model validated on that data. Public transport patterns primarily depend on traffic spatial-distribution, demands of passengers and expected utility of investors. Evolution is an iterative process of satisfying the needs of passengers and investors based on a given traffic spatial-distribution. The temporal change of urban public transport network is evaluated both using topological measures and spatial ones. The simulation model is validated using empirical data from nine big cities in China. Statistical analyses on topological and spatial attributes suggest that an evolution network with traffic demands characterized by power-law numerical values which distribute in a mode of concentric circles tallies well with these nine cities.

  15. CoMET: A Mesquite package for comparing models of continuous character evolution on phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunghau Lee

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuously varying traits such as body size or gene expression level evolve during the history of species or gene lineages. To test hypotheses about the evolution of such traits, the maximum likelihood (ML method is often used. Here we introduce CoMET (Continuous-character Model Evaluation and Testing, which is module for Mesquite that automates likelihood computations for nine different models of trait evolution. Due to its few restrictions on input data, CoMET is applicable to testing a wide range of character evolution hypotheses. The CoMET homepage, which links to freely available software and more detailed usage instructions, is located at http://www.lifesci.ucsb.edu/eemb/labs/oakley/software/comet.htm.

  16. An Empirical LTE Smartphone Power Model with a View to Energy Efficiency Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Mads; Noël, Laurent; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    measurements made on state-of-the-art LTE smartphones. Discontinuous Reception (DRX) sleep mode is also modeled, because it is one of the most effective methods to improve smartphone battery life. Energy efficiency has generally improved with each Radio Access Technology (RAT) generation, and to see......Smartphone users struggle with short battery life, and this affects their device satisfaction level and usage of the network. To evaluate how chipset manufacturers and mobile network operators can improve the battery life, we propose a Long Term Evolution (LTE) smartphone power model. The idea...... this evolution, we compare the energy efficiency of the latest LTE devices with devices based on Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE), High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), and Wi-Fi*. With further generations of RAT systems we expect further improvements. To this end, we discuss the new LTE features, Carrier...

  17. LHCb: The Evolution of the LHCb Grid Computing Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Arrabito, L; Bouvet, D; Cattaneo, M; Charpentier, P; Clarke, P; Closier, J; Franchini, P; Graciani, R; Lanciotti, E; Mendez, V; Perazzini, S; Nandkumar, R; Remenska, D; Roiser, S; Romanovskiy, V; Santinelli, R; Stagni, F; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Ubeda Garcia, M; Vedaee, A; Zhelezov, A

    2012-01-01

    The increase of luminosity in the LHC during its second year of operation (2011) was achieved by delivering more protons per bunch and increasing the number of bunches. Taking advantage of these changed conditions, LHCb ran with a higher pileup as well as a much larger charm physics introducing a bigger event size and processing times. These changes led to shortages in the offline distributed data processing resources, an increased need of cpu capacity by a factor 2 for reconstruction, higher storage needs at T1 sites by 70\\% and subsequently problems with data throughput for file access from the storage elements. To accommodate these changes the online running conditions and the Computing Model for offline data processing had to be adapted accordingly. This paper describes the changes implemented for the offline data processing on the Grid, relaxing the Monarc model in a first step and going beyond it subsequently. It further describes other operational issues discovered and solved during 2011, present the ...

  18. Isotope and trace element models of crustal evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Nions, R.K.; Hamilton, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    Some of the isotopic constraints on the development of continental crust from about 3.8 Ga ago are reviewed. Particularly it is noted that Archaean granitic (sensu lato) rocks have initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios close to predicted values for the bulk Earth at the time before emplacement, whereas those Phanerozoic granites investigated so far diverge considerably from the bulk Earth and betray the existence of later continental crust in their provenance. Geochemical evidence for recycling of some continent-derived elements into the mantle is examined and the important distinction between selected element recycling and bulk return of continental material is emphasized. Various transport models that have been proposed to model the development of continental crust are examined and some of their differences and similarities, particularly with respect to implications for continental recycling, are highlighted. (author)

  19. The Use of Evolution in a Central Action Selection Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Montes-Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of effective central selection provides flexibility in design by offering modularity and extensibility. In earlier papers we have focused on the development of a simple centralized selection mechanism. Our current goal is to integrate evolutionary methods in the design of non-sequential behaviours and the tuning of specific parameters of the selection model. The foraging behaviour of an animal robot (animat has been modelled in order to integrate the sensory information from the robot to perform selection that is nearly optimized by the use of genetic algorithms. In this paper we present how selection through optimization finally arranges the pattern of presented behaviours for the foraging task. Hence, the execution of specific parts in a behavioural pattern may be ruled out by the tuning of these parameters. Furthermore, the intensive use of colour segmentation from a colour camera for locating a cylinder sets a burden on the calculations carried out by the genetic algorithm.

  20. A mechanistic model for the evolution of multicellularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amado, André; Batista, Carlos; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2018-02-01

    Through a mechanistic approach we investigate the formation of aggregates of variable sizes, accounting mechanisms of aggregation, dissociation, death and reproduction. In our model, cells can produce two metabolites, but the simultaneous production of both metabolites is costly in terms of fitness. Thus, the formation of larger groups can favor the aggregates to evolve to a configuration where division of labor arises. It is assumed that the states of the cells in a group are those that maximize organismal fitness. In the model it is considered that the groups can grow linearly, forming a chain, or compactly keeping a roughly spherical shape. Starting from a population consisting of single-celled organisms, we observe the formation of groups with variable sizes and usually much larger than two-cell aggregates. Natural selection can favor the formation of large groups, which allows the system to achieve new and larger fitness maxima.

  1. The Evolution of the Roskilde Model in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anders Siig; Wulf-Andersen, Trine Østergaard; Heilesen, Simon

    2015-01-01

    For four decades, teaching at Roskilde University has been based on a research-active curriculum (Healey and Jenkins 2009, 122) mainstreaming research-based learning for all undergraduates and graduates. Problem-oriented project learning (PPL) is the cornerstone of a university-wide system...... work with a concrete example. The article also outline two different approaches to innovate using the Roskilde model of PPL....

  2. Time evolution in a geometric model of a particle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atiyah, M.F.; Franchetti, G.; Schroers, B.J.

    2015-01-01

    We analyse the properties of a (4+1)-dimensional Ricci-flat spacetime which may be viewed as an evolving Taub-NUT geometry, and give exact solutions of the Maxwell and gauged Dirac equation on this background. We interpret these solutions in terms of a geometric model of the electron and its spin, and discuss links between the resulting picture and Dirac’s Large Number Hypothesis.

  3. PROFESSIONAL COMPETITIVE EVOLUTION AND QUANTIFICATION MODELS IN ACCOUNTING SERVICE ELABORATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe FATACEAN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article consists in using an assessment framework of the accounting service elaboration. The purpose of this model is the identification and revaluation of an elite group of expert accounts from Romania, which should provide solutions to solve the most complex legal matters in the legal field, in the field of criminal, tax, civil, or commercial clauses making the object of law suits.

  4. Phase Transition Behavior in a Neutral Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Dawn; Scott, Adam; Maric, Nevena; Bahar, Sonya

    2014-03-01

    The complexity of interactions among individuals and between individuals and the environment make agent based modeling ideal for studying emergent speciation. This is a dynamically complex problem that can be characterized via the critical behavior of a continuous phase transition. Concomitant with the main tenets of natural selection, we allow organisms to reproduce, mutate, and die within a neutral phenotype space. Previous work has shown phase transition behavior in an assortative mating model with variable fitness landscapes as the maximum mutation size (μ) was varied (Dees and Bahar, 2010). Similarly, this behavior was recently presented in the work of Scott et al. (2013), even on a completely neutral landscape, for bacterial-like fission as well as for assortative mating. Here we present another neutral model to investigate the `critical' phase transition behavior of three mating types - assortative, bacterial, and random - in a phenotype space as a function of the percentage of random death. Results show two types of phase transitions occurring for the parameters of the population size and the number of clusters (an analogue of species), indicating different evolutionary dynamics for system survival and clustering. This research was supported by funding from: University of Missouri Research Board and James S. McDonnell Foundation.

  5. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Zaggia

    Full Text Available An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3. The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  6. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaggia, Luca; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

    2017-01-01

    An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  7. Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

    2006-06-01

    Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

  8. Epigenetics and Evolution: Transposons and the Stochastic Epigenetic Modification Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Branciamore

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In addition to genetic variation, epigenetic variation and transposons can greatly affect the evolutionary fitnesses landscape and gene expression. Previously we proposed a mathematical treatment of a general epigenetic variation model that we called Stochastic Epigenetic Modification (SEM model. In this study we follow up with a special case, the Transposon Silencing Model (TSM, with, once again, emphasis on quantitative treatment. We have investigated the evolutionary effects of epigenetic changes due to transposon (T insertions; in particular, we have considered a typical gene locus A and postulated that (i the expression level of gene A depends on the epigenetic state (active or inactive of a cis- located transposon element T, (ii stochastic variability in the epigenetic silencing of T occurs only in a short window of opportunity during development, (iii the epigenetic state is then stable during further development, and (iv the epigenetic memory is fully reset at each generation. We develop the model using two complementary approaches: a standard analytical population genetics framework (di usion equations and Monte-Carlo simulations. Both approaches led to similar estimates for the probability of fixation and time of fixation of locus TA with initial frequency P in a randomly mating diploid population of effective size Ne. We have ascertained the e ect that ρ, the probability of transposon Modification during the developmental window, has on the population (species. One of our principal conclusions is that as ρ increases, the pattern of fixation of the combined TA locus goes from "neutral" to "dominant" to "over-dominant". We observe that, under realistic values of ρ, epigenetic Modifications can provide an e cient mechanism for more rapid fixation of transposons and cis-located gene alleles. The results obtained suggest that epigenetic silencing, even if strictly transient (being reset at each generation, can still have signi cant

  9. Shoreline change assessment using multi-temporal satellite images: a case study of Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duru, Umit

    2017-08-01

    The research summarized here determines historical shoreline changes along Lake Sapanca by using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Six multi-temporal satellite images of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (L1-5 MMS), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (L7 ETM+), and Operational Land Imager Sensors (L8 OLI), covering the period between 17 June 1975 and 15 July 2016, were used to monitor shoreline positions and estimate change rates along the coastal zone. After pre-possessing routines, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and supervised classification techniques were utilized to extract six different shorelines. Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), a toolbox that enables transect-based computations of shoreline displacement, was used to compute historical shoreline change rates. The average rate of shoreline change for the entire cost was 2.7 m/year of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.2 m/year. While the great part of the lake shoreline remained stable, the study concluded that the easterly and westerly coasts and deltaic coasts are more vulnerable to shoreline displacements over the last four decades. The study also reveals that anthropogenic activities, more specifically over extraction of freshwater from the lake, cyclic variation in rainfall, and deposition of sediment transported by the surrounding creeks dominantly control spatiotemporal shoreline changes in the region. Monitoring shoreline changes using multi-temporal satellite images is a significant component for the coastal decision-making and management.

  10. POET: A Model for Planetary Orbital Evolution Due to Tides on Evolving Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penev, Kaloyan; Zhang, Michael; Jackson, Brian

    2014-06-01

    We make publicly available an efficient, versatile, easy to use and extend tool for calculating the evolution of circular aligned planetary orbits due to the tidal dissipation in the host star. This is the first model to fully account for the evolution of the angular momentum of the stellar convective envelope by the tidal coupling, the transfer of angular momentum between the stellar convective and radiative zones, the effects of the stellar evolution on the tidal dissipation efficiency and stellar core and envelope spins, the loss of stellar convective zone angular momentum to a magnetically launched wind and frequency dependent tidal dissipation. This is only a first release and further development is under way to allow calculating the evolution of inclined and eccentric orbits, with the latter including the tidal dissipation in the planet and its feedback on planetary structure. Considerable effort has been devoted to providing extensive documentation detailing both the usage and the complete implementation details, in order to make it as easy as possible for independent groups to use and/or extend the code for their purposes. POET represents a significant improvement over some previous models for planetary tidal evolution and so has many astrophysical applications. In this article, we describe and illustrate several key examples.

  11. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan B. Djordjevic

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which

  12. Cosmological evolution in a two-brane warped geometry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Kumar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We study an effective 4-dimensional scalar–tensor field theory, originated from an underlying brane–bulk warped geometry, to explore the scenario of inflation. It is shown that the inflaton potential naturally emerges from the radion energy–momentum tensor which in turn results in an inflationary model of the Universe on the visible brane that is consistent with the recent results from the Planck's experiment. The dynamics of modulus stabilization from the inflaton rolling condition is demonstrated. The implications of our results in the context of recent BICEP2 results are also discussed.

  13. Microstructure evolution during homogenization of Al–Mn–Fe–Si alloys: Modeling and experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Q.; Poole, W.J.; Wells, M.A.; Parson, N.C.

    2013-01-01

    Microstructure evolution during the homogenization heat treatment of Al–Mn–Fe–Si, or AA3xxx, alloys has been investigated using a combination of modeling and experimental studies. The model is fully coupled to CALculation PHAse Diagram (CALPHAD) software and has explicitly taken into account the two different length scales for diffusion encountered in modeling the homogenization process. The model is able to predict the evolution of all the important microstructural features during homogenization, including the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of dispersoids and alloying elements in solution, the dispersoid number density and the size distribution, and the type and fraction of intergranular constituent particles. Experiments were conducted using four direct chill (DC) cast AA3xxx alloys subjected to various homogenization treatments. The resulting microstructures were then characterized using a range of characterization techniques, including optical and electron microscopy, electron micro probe analysis, field emission gun scanning electron microscopy, and electrical resistivity measurements. The model predictions have been compared with the experimental measurements to validate the model. Further, it has been demonstrated that the validated model is able to predict the effects of alloying elements (e.g. Si and Mn) on microstructure evolution. It is concluded that the model provides a time and cost effective tool in optimizing and designing industrial AA3xxx alloy chemistries and homogenization heat treatments

  14. Modeling the evolution of channel shape: Balancing computational efficiency with hydraulic fidelity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C.W.; Kean, J.W.; Tucker, G.E.; Anderson, R. Scott

    2008-01-01

    The cross-sectional shape of a natural river channel controls the capacity of the system to carry water off a landscape, to convey sediment derived from hillslopes, and to erode its bed and banks. Numerical models that describe the response of a landscape to changes in climate or tectonics therefore require formulations that can accommodate evolution of channel cross-sectional geometry. However, fully two-dimensional (2-D) flow models are too computationally expensive to implement in large-scale landscape evolution models, while available simple empirical relationships between width and discharge do not adequately capture the dynamics of channel adjustment. We have developed a simplified 2-D numerical model of channel evolution in a cohesive, detachment-limited substrate subject to steady, unidirectional flow. Erosion is assumed to be proportional to boundary shear stress, which is calculated using an approximation of the flow field in which log-velocity profiles are assumed to apply along vectors that are perpendicular to the local channel bed. Model predictions of the velocity structure, peak boundary shear stress, and equilibrium channel shape compare well with predictions of a more sophisticated but more computationally demanding ray-isovel model. For example, the mean velocities computed by the two models are consistent to within ???3%, and the predicted peak shear stress is consistent to within ???7%. Furthermore, the shear stress distributions predicted by our model compare favorably with available laboratory measurements for prescribed channel shapes. A modification to our simplified code in which the flow includes a high-velocity core allows the model to be extended to estimate shear stress distributions in channels with large width-to-depth ratios. Our model is efficient enough to incorporate into large-scale landscape evolution codes and can be used to examine how channels adjust both cross-sectional shape and slope in response to tectonic and climatic

  15. Technical know-how for the investigation and modelling of topographic evolution for site characterisation - 59171

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doke, Ryosuke; Yasue, Ken-ichi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Nakayasu, Akio

    2012-01-01

    Geological hazard assessments are being used to make important decisions relevant to nuclear facilities such as a repository for deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. With respect to such repositories, topographic evolution is a key issue for description of the long-term evolution of a groundwater flow characteristics in time spans of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The construction of topographic evolution models is complex, involving tacit knowledge and working processes. Therefore, it is important to externalise, that is to explicitly present the tacit knowledge and decision-making processes used by experts in the model building unambiguously, with thorough documentation and to provide key knowledge to support planning and implementation of investigations. In this study, documentation of the technical know-how used for the construction of a topographic evolution model is demonstrated. The process followed in the construction of the model is illustrated using task-flow logic diagrams; the process involves four main tasks with several sub-tasks. The task-flow followed for an investigation to estimate uplift rates linked to the task-flow for the modelling of topographic evolution is also illustrated. In addition, the decision-making processes in the investigation are expressed in logical IF-THEN format for each task. Based on the documented technical know-how, an IT-based Expert System was constructed. In future work, it is necessary to analyse the knowledge, including the management of uncertainties in the modelling and investigations, and to integrate fundamental ideas for managing uncertainties with expert system. (authors)

  16. Modeling property evolution of container materials used in nuclear waste storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dongsheng; Garmestani, Hamid; Khaleel, Moe; Sun, Xin

    2010-03-01

    Container materials under irradiation for a long time will raise high energy in the structure to generate critical structural damage. This study investigated what kind of mesoscale microstructure will be more resistant to radiation damage. Mechanical properties evolution during irradiation was modeled using statistical continuum mechanics. Preliminary results also showed how to achieve the desired microstructure with higher resistance to radiation.

  17. A Double Zone Dynamical Model For The Tidal Evolution Of The Obliquity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, Cilia

    2017-10-01

    It is debated wether close-in giants planets can form in-situ and if not, which mechanisms are responsible for their migration. One of the observable tests for migration theories is the current value of the obliquity. But after the main migration mechanism has ended, the combined effects of tidal dissipation and the magnetic braking of the star lead to the evolution of both the obliquity and the semi-major axis. The observed correlation between effective temperature and measured projected obliquity has been taken as evidence of such mechanisms being at play. Here I present an improved model for the tidal evolution of the obliquity. It includes all the components of the dynamical tide for circular misaligned systems. It uses an analytical formulation for the frequency-averaged dissipation for each mode, depending only on global stellar parameters, giving a measure of the dissipative properties of the convective zone of the host as it evolves in time. The model also includes the effect of magnetic braking in the framework of the double zone model. This results in the estimation of different tidal evolution timescales for the evolution of the planet's semi-major axis and obliquity depending on the properties of the stellar host. This model can be used to test migration theories, provided that a good determination of stellar radii, masses and ages can be obtained.

  18. A theoretical model of the evolution of maternal effects under parent-offspring conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uller, Tobias; Pen, Ido

    The evolution of maternal effects on offspring phenotype should depend on the extent of parent-offspring conflict and costs and constraints associated with maternal and offspring strategies. Here, we develop a model of maternal effects on offspring dispersal phenotype under parent-offspring conflict

  19. User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

  20. Investigating Island Evolution: A Galapagos-Based Lesson Using the 5E Instructional Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFina, Anthony V.

    2002-01-01

    Introduces an inquiry-based lesson plan on evolution and the Galapagos Islands. Uses the 5E instructional model which includes phases of engagement, exploration, explanation, elaboration, and evaluation. Includes information on species for exploration and elaboration purposes, and a general rubric for student evaluation. (YDS)

  1. Recurrence relations and time evolution in the three-dimensional Sawada model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.H.; Hong, J.

    1984-01-01

    Time-dependent behavior of the three-dimensional Sawada model is obtained by a method of recurrence relations. Exactly calculated quantities are the time evolution of the density-fluctuation operator and its random force. As an application, their linear coefficients, the relaxation and memory functions are used to obtain certain dynamic quantities, e.g., the mobility

  2. Evolution of a neutral-ion 2 fluid system using thermal lattice Boltzmann model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahala, L.; Vahala, G.; Carter, J.; Pavlo, P.

    2000-01-01

    The 2D evolution of a 2-species system is examined using the thermal lattice Boltzmann model (TLBM). The effects of velocity shear layers on sharp heat fronts are considered for a neutral-ion system in the case where both species are turbulent. The rate at which the species velocities and temperatures equilibrate no longer follow the Morse estimate. (author)

  3. Cosmological constraints on radion evolution in the universal extra dimension model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, K. C.; Chu, M.-C.

    2008-01-01

    The constraints on the radion evolution in the universal extra dimension (UED) model from cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) data are studied. In the UED model, where both the gravity and standard model fields can propagate in the extra dimensions, the evolution of the extra-dimensional volume, the radion, induces variation of fundamental constants. We discuss the effects of variation of the relevant constants in the context of UED for the CMB power spectrum and SNe Ia data. We then use the three-year WMAP data to constrain the radion evolution at z∼1100, and the 2σ constraint on ρ/ρ 0 (ρ is a function of the radion, to be defined in the text) is [-8.8,6.6]x10 -13 yr -1 . The SNe Ia gold sample yields a constraint on ρ/ρ 0 , for redshift between 0 and 1, to be [-4.7,14]x10 -13 yr -1 . Furthermore, the constraints from SNe Ia can be interpreted as bounds on the evolution QCD scale parameter, Λ QCD /Λ QCD,0 , [-1.4,2.8]x10 -11 yr -1 , without reference to the UED model.

  4. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, J.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of

  5. Catchment response to lava damming: integrating field observation, geochronology and landscape evolution modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gorp, Wouter; Schoorl, Jeroen M.; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Reimann, Tony; Wijbrans, Jan R.; Maddy, Darrel; Demir, Tuncer; Veldkamp, Tom

    2016-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment (~45 km2) in western Turkey is suitable for such a study, as it has been influenced by uplift, climate change and lava

  6. Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Gorp, van Wouter; Coulthard, T.J.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

  7. Divergence and evolution of assortative mating in a polygenic trait model of speciation with gene flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdeva, Himani; Barton, Nicholas H

    2017-06-01

    Assortative mating is an important driver of speciation in populations with gene flow and is predicted to evolve under certain conditions in few-locus models. However, the evolution of assortment is less understood for mating based on quantitative traits, which are often characterized by high genetic variability and extensive linkage disequilibrium between trait loci. We explore this scenario for a two-deme model with migration, by considering a single polygenic trait subject to divergent viability selection across demes, as well as assortative mating and sexual selection within demes, and investigate how trait divergence is shaped by various evolutionary forces. Our analysis reveals the existence of sharp thresholds of assortment strength, at which divergence increases dramatically. We also study the evolution of assortment via invasion of modifiers of mate discrimination and show that the ES assortment strength has an intermediate value under a range of migration-selection parameters, even in diverged populations, due to subtle effects which depend sensitively on the extent of phenotypic variation within these populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the polygenic trait is studied using the hypergeometric and infinitesimal models. We further investigate the sensitivity of our results to the assumptions of the hypergeometric model, using individual-based simulations. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  8. Evolution of self-organized division of labor in a response threshold model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, Ana; Pen, Ido; Keller, Laurent; Weissing, Franz J.

    Division of labor in social insects is determinant to their ecological success. Recent models emphasize that division of labor is an emergent property of the interactions among nestmates obeying to simple behavioral rules. However, the role of evolution in shaping these rules has been largely

  9. Transition management as a model for managing processes of co-evolution towards sustainable development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Kemp (René); D.A. Loorbach (Derk); J. Rotmans (Jan)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractSustainable development requires changes in socio-technical systems and wider societal change - in beliefs, values and governance that co-evolve with technology changes. In this article we present a practical model for managing processes of co-evolution: transition management. Transition

  10. Dispersion of atmospheric pollutants in flow over the shoreline of a large body of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobosy, R.

    1979-01-01

    Simulation of pollutant dispersion and mixed-layer development in a shoreline fumigation regime was studied using a two-dimensional vertical plane model employing level two or three (depending on the experiment) from the hierarchy of turbulence closure schemes of Mellor and Yamada (1974). A one-dimensional version of the model using hierarchy level three which includes nonlocal effects in the turbulence simulation was verified with Wangara data from Day 34. Levels two and three were then compared using the two-dimensional model under conditions as measured at Waukegan, Illinois, on 28 June 1974. Predictions from level two, a simpler and purely local scheme, are comparable to level three for both pollutant concentration and mixed-layer depth at least with winds about 3 m s -1 , except within 500m of shore and for a short distance above the inversion base. There is, however, little difference in cost between the two schemes in the present model, making level three preferable because of its greater generality and smoother predicted fields. Predicted mixed-layer depth over land was much less than observed at Waukegan using either turbulence scheme. It appears that this is not due to inadequacies of the turbulence simulation but to three-dimensional features of the actual situation which could not be described by the two-dimensional model

  11. Geologic and Isotopic Models for the Carpathian Crystalline Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Coriolan Balintoni

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of Carpathian metamorphics protoliths have TDM model Sm/Nd ages between 1.6 and 2.0 Ga. This suggests an important episode of continental crust formation after the 2.0 Ga. The Biharia lithogroup (Apuseni Mountains and the Tulghes lithogroup (East Carpathians furnished Zircon U/Pb ages from metagranitoids and acid metavolcanics, respective, around 500 Ma; this is a sign of existence of some Lower Proterozoic protoliths among Carpathian metamorphics. The bimodal intrusions which are piercing the volcano-sedimentary sequence of Paiuseni lithogroup in Highiş Massif (Apuseni Mountains have given Permian ages on Zircon U/Pb data. The Paiuseni lithogroup probably represents the fill of a rift basin of the same age. The Arieseni, Muntele Mare and Vinta granitoid intrusions from Apuseni Mountains, with U/Pb ages between Lower Devonian and Permian, indicates some contractional and extensional processes, in connection with Variscan Orogeny.

  12. Game equilibrium models I evolution and game dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    There are two main approaches towards the phenotypic analysis of frequency dependent natural selection. First, there is the approach of evolutionary game theory, which was introduced in 1973 by John Maynard Smith and George R. Price. In this theory, the dynamical process of natural selection is not modeled explicitly. Instead, the selective forces acting within a population are represented by a fitness function, which is then analysed according to the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy or ESS. Later on, the static approach of evolutionary game theory has been complemented by a dynamic stability analysis of the replicator equations. Introduced by Peter D. Taylor and Leo B. Jonker in 1978, these equations specify a class of dynamical systems, which provide a simple dynamic description of a selection process. Usually, the investigation of the replicator dynamics centers around a stability analysis of their stationary solutions. Although evolutionary stability and dynamic stability both intend to charac...

  13. Modeling of dislocation channel width evolution in irradiated metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Peter J.; Benensky, Kelsa M.; Zinkle, Steven J.

    2018-02-01

    Defect-free dislocation channel formation has been reported to promote plastic instability during tensile testing via localized plastic flow, leading to a distinct loss of ductility and strain hardening in many low-temperature irradiated materials. In order to study the underlying mechanisms governing dislocation channel width and formation, the channel formation process is modeled via a simple stochastic dislocation-jog process dependent upon grain size, defect cluster density, and defect size. Dislocations traverse a field of defect clusters and jog stochastically upon defect interaction, forming channels of low defect-density. Based upon prior molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and in-situ experimental transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations, each dislocation encounter with a dislocation loop or stacking fault tetrahedron (SFT) is assumed to cause complete absorption of the defect cluster, prompting the dislocation to jog up or down by a distance equal to half the defect cluster diameter. Channels are predicted to form rapidly and are comparable to reported TEM measurements for many materials. Predicted channel widths are found to be most strongly dependent on mean defect size and correlated well with a power law dependence on defect diameter and density, and distance from the dislocation source. Due to the dependence of modeled channel width on defect diameter and density, maximum channel width is predicted to slowly increase as accumulated dose increases. The relatively weak predicted dependence of channel formation width with distance, in accordance with a diffusion analogy, implies that after only a few microns from the source, most channels observed via TEM analyses may not appear to vary with distance because of limitations in the field-of-view to a few microns. Further, examinations of the effect of the so-called "source-broadening" mechanism of channel formation showed that its effect is simply to add a minimum thickness to the channel

  14. Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, D.; Wang, J.; Arismendi, D.; Alvarez, J.; Ouandji, C.; Blaich, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA- damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO2 and O2. Additional

  15. Habitat structure and zonation patterns of northwestern Mediterranean shoreline strands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Mariani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We studied the habitat structure (macrofaunal assemblages and bottom types and zonation patterns of 29 unvegetated shoreline strands along the 900-km coast of Catalonia (NW Mediterranean Sea. Organisms were sampled with grabs, pitfall traps, sticky traps, clam nets and spades to ensure capture of the different proportions of macrofaunal assemblages from the supra-, medio- and infralittoral levels. We collected 211 taxa: 194 animals and 17 algae. The most abundant and dominant organisms collected with van Veen grabs were Nematoda, Oligochaeta and Collembola at the supralittoral level; the polychaetes Saccocirrus spp. and Pisione remota, the amphipod Corophium orientale, Nematoda, and Turbellaria at the mediolittoral level; and Nematoda at the upper infralittoral level. SIMPER analysis revealed great dissimilarity between the organisms inhabiting the supralittoral and the other littoral levels. Regarding the epifauna, the sticky traps used at the supralittoral level mainly collected Collembola, which were nearly absent in pitfall traps. The qualitative study performed with a clam net and a small spade revealed that Nematoda, Saccocirrus spp., Turbellaria, Nemertea and the polychaete P. remota were the most abundant animals at both the medio- and the infralittoral levels and no differences were found between these levels. Different qualitative sampling methodologies showed that in fine sediments the bivalves Donax trunculus and D. semistriatus determined more than 97% of dissimilarity from coarse-sand sites. Richness increased in protected sandy and cobble shores. Littoral level and bottom-type features were only to a certain extent valid indicators of specific biotic components for a specific habitat.

  16. Nutrient-enhanced bioremediation of oil-contaminated shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    On March 24, 1989, the collision of the supertanker Exxon Valdez with a submerged reef in Prince William Sound AK, released 41.6 million L (11 million gal) of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. The oil spread with time to contaminate an estimated 565 km (350 miles) of shoreline. The degradation of oil components by biological mechanisms has been intensively studied during the last 20 years. The general outline of biodegradation pathways for aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons has been formulated and continues to be developed in greater detail. Consequently, the microbial decomposition of oil in aquatic environments is well understood to include descriptions of biodegradation kinetics; temperature effects for biodegradation can be described by an Arrhenius relationship. Even cold-water environments have been shown to support the biodegradation of oil components. This paper reports that a panel of experts was assembled to assist the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in determining the best treatment strategy to accelerate the natural biodegradation process in Prince William Sound

  17. Bioremediation of oil on shorelines with organic and inorganic nutrients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.; Ramstad, S.

    1995-01-01

    Two experiments to study the mechanisms associated with nutrient-enhanced biodegradation of oil (Statfjord crude oil)-contaminated shorelines were done in continuous-flow seawater exchange basins with simulated tides. The fertilizers included fish and meal pellets, stick water pellets, and two concentrations of Max Bac: standard and five times higher. Both one-time and repeated additions of fish meal were studied. The number of oil-degrading bacteria in the sediment increased by three to four orders of magnitude after adding oil and fertilizer, and repeated fertilization had little effect. Oil degradation was found to be extensive with all treatments in both experiments, which lasted 35 or 98 days. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon degradation seems to be most extensive in the sediments with repeated application of fish meal. The relation between accumulated total soluble nitrogen in interstitial water and nC 17 /pristane differs between the sediments treated with Max Bac and the organic additives, and indicates that this concentration cannot be used as a sole indication of the oil degradation rate if organic nutrients are used. The relation between accumulated CO 2 production and nC 17 /pristane ratio indicates a diauxic use of the two different sources of carbon present, without being absolute. Repeated fertilization with organic additives is neither beneficial nor detrimental to the oil degradation activity

  18. Biological effects of three different shoreline cleanup methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, J.; Lethinen, C.; Linden, O.

    1981-06-01

    In order to simulate a real oil spill the shore of a small island in the Baltic proper was treated with a weathered crude oil. The aim of the study was to investigate and compare environmental impact of some shoreline cleanup techniques as well as the effectiveness of these methods. Hot water was the quickest cleanup method, whereas cleaning with a solvent took twice as much time and mechanical recovery three and a half time as much. The hot water treatment resulted in the smallest amounts of oil left in the soil compared to the two other methods, where two to three times as much was left. The oil content in sedimenting material and in mussels was highest outside the area cleaned with hot water. The oil content in mussel tissues increased 75 times after cleaning and the sediment contained about twice as much oil as outside the other areas. The vegetation on all four oiled areas was considerably reduced and the soil fauna was completely eliminated. Since no animals were found on the four oiled areas, not even on the untreated area, it appeared to be the oil itself that caused this effect. The number of animals caught with pitfall traps decreased after oiling and cleanup to between 10-40 % of the original amount. The results from the investigation of the fauna in the Cladophora-belt do not indicate any effects so far.

  19. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, classified according to the...

  20. National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) Sampling Areas Polygons, Hawaiian Islands Shoreline, 2015, US EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This is a polygon feature dataset with areas along the shoreline of the Hawaiian islands. The National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) is a national coastal...

  1. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity Index...

  2. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIP (ESI Shoreline Types - Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIP data set contains vector polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  3. Impact of port structures on the shoreline of Karnataka, west coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deepa, N.; Kunte, P.D.

    (GIS) as the location of the shoreline and its historical rate of change can provide important information for the design of coastal protection, plans for coastal development, coastal and social vulnerability study, and the calibration...

  4. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Florida Panhandle: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of the Florida Panhandle, classified according to the Environmental...

  5. A Collaborative Geospatial Shoreline Inventory Tool to Guide Coastal Development and Habitat Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Gies

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We are developing a geospatial inventory tool that will guide habitat conservation, restoration and coastal development and benefit several stakeholders who seek mitigation and adaptation strategies to shoreline changes resulting from erosion and sea level rise. The ESRI Geoportal Server, which is a type of web portal used to find and access geospatial information in a central repository, is customized by adding a Geoinventory tool capability that allows any shoreline related data to be searched, displayed and analyzed on a map viewer. Users will be able to select sections of the shoreline and generate statistical reports in the map viewer to allow for comparisons. The tool will also facilitate map-based discussion forums and creation of user groups to encourage citizen participation in decisions regarding shoreline stabilization and restoration, thereby promoting sustainable coastal development.

  6. Virginia ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Virginia, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  7. Maryland ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Maryland, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  8. Aquifer Sampling Tube Completion Report: 100 Area and Hanford Townsite Shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.E.; Borghese, J.V.; Erb, D.B.

    1998-02-01

    Groundwater contamination is known or suspected along the Hanford Site shoreline of the Columbia River adjacent to the retired reactor areas. Along the shoreline away from the reactor areas, where contamination is presumed to be absent, monitoring sites are frequently widely spaced or unavailable to confirm the presumption. Previous characterizations of contamination near the river have relied on data from a limited number of near-river wells, contaminant plume migration predictions, and river bank seepage sampling to anticipate shoreline conditions. In recent years, new methods have been developed to obtain groundwater samples from the aquifer near the groundwater/river water interface. These methods include using (1) divers to obtain samples of pore water from riverbed sediment and (2) sampling tubes that are driven into the aquifer at the shoreline. The latter method also permits sampling the aquifer at multiple depths, which helps to determine the thickness of the potentially contaminated groundwater layer that discharges into the river

  9. Natural shorelines promote the stability of fish communities in an urbanized coastal system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation are leading causes of species extinctions in terrestrial, aquatic and marine systems. Along coastlines, natural habitats support high biodiversity and valuable ecosystem services but are often replaced with engineered structures for coastal protection or erosion control. We coupled high-resolution shoreline condition data with an eleven-year time series of fish community structure to examine how coastal protection structures impact community stability. Our analyses revealed that the most stable fish communities were nearest natural shorelines. Structurally complex engineered shorelines appeared to promote greater stability than simpler alternatives as communities nearest vertical walls, which are among the most prevalent structures, were most dissimilar from natural shorelines and had the lowest stability. We conclude that conserving and restoring natural habitats is essential for promoting ecological stability. However, in scenarios when natural habitats are not viable, engineered landscapes designed to mimic the complexity of natural habitats may provide similar ecological functions.

  10. Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Polygons and Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, classified according to...

  11. Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

    2015-04-01

    Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

  12. Modelling Long-Term Evolution of Cementitious Materials Used in Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Govaerts, J.; Mallants, D.

    2013-01-01

    This report summarizes the latest developments at SCK-CEN in modelling long-term evolution of cementitious materials used as engineered barriers in waste disposal. In a first section chemical degradation of concrete during leaching with rain and soil water types is discussed. The geochemical evolution of concrete thus obtained forms the basis for all further modelling. Next we show how the leaching model is coupled with a reactive transport module to determine leaching of cement minerals under diffusive or advective boundary conditions. The module also contains a simplified microstructural model from which hydraulic and transport properties of concrete may be calculated dynamically. This coupled model is simplified, i.e. abstracted prior to being applied to large-scale concrete structures typical of a near-surface repository. Both the original and simplified models are then used to calculate the evolution of hydraulic, transport, and chemical properties of concrete. Characteristic degradation states of concrete are further linked to distribution ratios that describe sorption onto hardened cement via a linear and reversible sorption process. As concrete degrades and pH drops the distribution ratios are continuously updated. We have thus integrated all major chemical and physical concrete degradation processes into one simulator for a particular scale of interest. Two simulators are used: one that can operate at relatively small spatial scales using all process details and another one which simulates concrete degradation at the scale of the repository but with a simplified cement model representation. (author)

  13. Formation-evolution model of uranium-productive basin and its recognition criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zuyi; Li Ziying; Zhou Weixun; Guan Taiyang

    2004-11-01

    Based on geologic-tectonic setting and dynamic evolution of important U-productive basins both at home and abroad, authors distinguish six type of U-productive basins, and nominate each type by typical representative of this type, namely Chu-Sarysu and Syr-Darya type, Central Kyzylkum type, Zaural and West-Siberia type, Zabaikal type, Bohemia type, and South Texas type. The formation-evolution model of each type of U-productive basin has been established and recognition criteria have been proposed. Finially, the difference between each type U-productive basin is discussed and some assumption on prospecting for U-productive basins is proposed. (authors)

  14. Formation-evolution model of uranium-productive basin and its recognition criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuyi, Chen; Ziying, Li [Beijing Research Inst. of Uranium Geology, Beijing (China); Weixun, Zhou; Taiyang, Guan [East China Inst. of Technology, Fuzhou (China)

    2004-11-15

    Based on geologic-tectonic setting and dynamic evolution of important U-productive basins both at home and abroad, authors distinguish six type of U-productive basins, and nominate each type by typical representative of this type, namely Chu-Sarysu and Syr-Darya type, Central Kyzylkum type, Zaural and West-Siberia type, Zabaikal type, Bohemia type, and South Texas type. The formation-evolution model of each type of U-productive basin has been established and recognition criteria have been proposed. Finially, the difference between each type U-productive basin is discussed and some assumption on prospecting for U-productive basins is proposed. (authors)

  15. Computer simulation of the time evolution of a quenched model alloy in the nucleation region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marro, J.; Lebowitz, J.L.; Kalos, M.H.

    1979-01-01

    The time evolution of the structure function and of the cluster (or grain) distribution following quenching in a model binary alloy with a small concentration of minority atoms is obtained from computer simulations. The structure function S-bar (k,t) obeys a simple scaling relation, S-bar (k,t) = K -3 F (k/K) with K (t) proportional t/sup -a/, a approx. = 0.25, during the latter and larger part of the evolution. During the same period, the mean cluster size grows approximately linearly with time

  16. Alignment and prediction of cis-regulatory modules based on a probabilistic model of evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin He

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Cross-species comparison has emerged as a powerful paradigm for predicting cis-regulatory modules (CRMs and understanding their evolution. The comparison requires reliable sequence alignment, which remains a challenging task for less conserved noncoding sequences. Furthermore, the existing models of DNA sequence evolution generally do not explicitly treat the special properties of CRM sequences. To address these limitations, we propose a model of CRM evolution that captures different modes of evolution of functional transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs and the background sequences. A particularly novel aspect of our work is a probabilistic model of gains and losses of TFBSs, a process being recognized as an important part of regulatory sequence evolution. We present a computational framework that uses this model to solve the problems of CRM alignment and prediction. Our alignment method is similar to existing methods of statistical alignment but uses the conserved binding sites to improve alignment. Our CRM prediction method deals with the inherent uncertainties of binding site annotations and sequence alignment in a probabilistic framework. In simulated as well as real data, we demonstrate that our program is able to improve both alignment and prediction of CRM sequences over several state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we used alignments produced by our program to study binding site conservation in genome-wide binding data of key transcription factors in the Drosophila blastoderm, with two intriguing results: (i the factor-bound sequences are under strong evolutionary constraints even if their neighboring genes are not expressed in the blastoderm and (ii binding sites in distal bound sequences (relative to transcription start sites tend to be more conserved than those in proximal regions. Our approach is implemented as software, EMMA (Evolutionary Model-based cis-regulatory Module Analysis, ready to be applied in a broad biological context.

  17. Turn-based evolution in a simplified model of artistic creative process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlstedt, Palle

    2015-01-01

    Evolutionary computation has often been presented as a possible model for creativity in computers. In this paper, evolution is discussed in the light of a theoretical model of human artistic process, recently presented by the author. Some crucial differences between human artistic creativity......, and the results of initial experiments are presented and discussed. Artistic creativity is here modeled as an iterated turn-based process, alternating between a conceptual representation and a material representation of the work-to-be. Evolutionary computation is proposed as a heuristic solution to the principal...... and natural evolution are observed and discussed, also in the light of other creative processes occurring in nature. As a tractable way to overcome these limitations, a new kind of evolutionary implementation of creativity is proposed, based on a simplified version of the previously presented model...

  18. A model of epigenetic evolution based on theory of open quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

    2013-12-01

    We present a very general model of epigenetic evolution unifying (neo-)Darwinian and (neo-)Lamarckian viewpoints. The evolution is represented in the form of adaptive dynamics given by the quantum(-like) master equation. This equation describes development of the information state of epigenome under the pressure of an environment. We use the formalism of quantum mechanics in the purely operational framework. (Hence, our model has no direct relation to quantum physical processes inside a cell.) Thus our model is about probabilities for observations which can be done on epigenomes and it does not provide a detailed description of cellular processes. Usage of the operational approach provides a possibility to describe by one model all known types of cellular epigenetic inheritance.

  19. Modeling Variable Phanerozoic Oxygen Effects on Physiology and Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Jeffrey B; Jew, Corey J; Wegner, Nicholas C

    2016-01-01

    Geochemical approximation of Earth's atmospheric O2 level over geologic time prompts hypotheses linking hyper- and hypoxic atmospheres to transformative events in the evolutionary history of the biosphere. Such correlations, however, remain problematic due to the relative imprecision of the timing and scope of oxygen change and the looseness of its overlay on the chronology of key biotic events such as radiations, evolutionary innovation, and extinctions. There are nevertheless general attributions of atmospheric oxygen concentration to key evolutionary changes among groups having a primary dependence upon oxygen diffusion for respiration. These include the occurrence of Devonian hypoxia and the accentuation of air-breathing dependence leading to the origin of vertebrate terrestriality, the occurrence of Carboniferous-Permian hyperoxia and the major radiation of early tetrapods and the origins of insect flight and gigantism, and the Mid-Late Permian oxygen decline accompanying the Permian extinction. However, because of variability between and error within different atmospheric models, there is little basis for postulating correlations outside the Late Paleozoic. Other problems arising in the correlation of paleo-oxygen with significant biological events include tendencies to ignore the role of blood pigment affinity modulation in maintaining homeostasis, the slow rates of O2 change that would have allowed for adaptation, and significant respiratory and circulatory modifications that can and do occur without changes in atmospheric oxygen. The purpose of this paper is thus to refocus thinking about basic questions central to the biological and physiological implications of O2 change over geological time.

  20. Emerging and Submerging Shorelines: Impacts of Physical Change on Bioband Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, L. E.; Johnson, A. C.; Gregovich, D.; Buma, B.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    We approximated shifts in coastal benthic species for shoreline length units undergoing both sea level rise and relative sea level lowering (often post-glacial, termed isostatic rebound) where subsistence-based, southeast Alaska Natives reside. From six community centers, we examined 30 km radii shoreline reaches by merging relevant portions of the NOAA ShoreZone database with near shore bathymetry and measures of mean global sea level rise with local global positioning system information (GIS) of tectonic shift and isostatic rebound. For our analysis, we estimated change for 9,868 assessed shoreline length units having uniform substrate and biologic type over a 100-yr time span (2008-2108) using geometric analysis of shoreline attributes. For each shoreline length unit we assessed relationships among substrate, slope, exposure, and presence of five benthic species including eel grass (Zostera marina), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), butter clams (Saxidomus gigantean), bull kelp (Nereocytis leutkeana), and foliose red algae including ribbon kelp (Palmaria sp.). Our research indicates that both emergence, up to 1.8 m, and submergence, up 0.2 m, of the land will result in disportionately larger shoreline length segment alterations for habitats in protected low-slope gradient bays and estuaries (dominated by eelgrass and butter clam habitats) with less change for rocky steep-gradient exposed penninsulas (red algae and canopy kelp). This trend, holding true regardless of isostatic rebound, tectonic shift or sea level rise rate, highlights the importance of initial geomorphology-based assessments serving to improve bio-physical, chemical, and socially-related coastal research. Where shorelines are emerging 30% decreases in estuary lengths are predicted, but where shorelines are submerging up to 3% increases in estuaries are expected. Our research results are consistent with anthropology studies assessing past coastal change. Coastal change, influencing subsistance foods

  1. Semi-automated procedures for shoreline extraction using single RADARSAT-1 SAR image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Fugura, A.'kif; Billa, Lawal; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2011-12-01

    Coastline identification is important for surveying and mapping reasons. Coastline serves as the basic point of reference and is used on nautical charts for navigation purposes. Its delineation has become crucial and more important in the wake of the many recent earthquakes and tsunamis resulting in complete change and redraw of some shorelines. In a tropical country like Malaysia, presence of cloud cover hinders the application of optical remote sensing data. In this study a semi-automated technique and procedures are presented for shoreline delineation from RADARSAT-1 image. A scene of RADARSAT-1 satellite image was processed using enhanced filtering technique to identify and extract the shoreline coast of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. RADSARSAT image has many advantages over the optical data because of its ability to penetrate cloud cover and its night sensing capabilities. At first, speckles were removed from the image by using Lee sigma filter which was used to reduce random noise and to enhance the image and discriminate the boundary between land and water. The results showed an accurate and improved extraction and delineation of the entire coastline of Kuala Terrenganu. The study demonstrated the reliability of the image averaging filter in reducing random noise over the sea surface especially near the shoreline. It enhanced land-water boundary differentiation, enabling better delineation of the shoreline. Overall, the developed techniques showed the potential of radar imagery for accurate shoreline mapping and will be useful for monitoring shoreline changes during high and low tides as well as shoreline erosion in a tropical country like Malaysia.

  2. An Empirical LTE Smartphone Power Model with a View to Energy Efficiency Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Lauridsen, Mads; Noël, Laurent; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard; Mogensen, Preben

    2014-01-01

    Smartphone users struggle with short battery life, and this affects their device satisfaction level and usage of the network. To evaluate how chipset manufacturers and mobile network operators can improve the battery life, we propose a Long Term Evolution (LTE) smartphone power model. The idea is to provide a model that makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different terminal and network settings to the overall user equipment energy consumption. It is primarily intended as an instrument...

  3. Rapid shoreline erosion induced by human impacts in a tropical muddy coast context, an example from western French Guiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunier, Guillaume; Anthony, Edward; Gardel, Antoine

    2015-04-01

    The Guyanas coast (French Guiana, Surinam and Guiana) is the longest muddy coast in the world (1500 km). It is under the influence of mud banks in transit from the Amazon delta in Brazil to the Orinoco delta in Venezuela. This westward mud bank migration induces a strong geomorphic control on the shoreline which can be summarized in terms of "bank" (shoreline advance and wave energy dissipation) and "inter-bank" phases (erosion of shoreline by waves). Our study site, rice polders close to Mana city (western French Guiana), is a fine example of the exacerbation, by human activities, of the erosional dynamics on this muddy coast during an "inter-bank" phase. The polders cover 50,000 ha, in 200 x 600 m compartments flanked by earth dikes and canals. They were built in the muddy Holocene coastal plain in the 1980s and are rapidly eroding. Waves (mean significant height = 1.5 m height) comprise Atlantic swell and local trade wind-waves, and the tidal context is semi-diurnal and meso-tidal. We determined historical shoreline evolution from satellite (Landsat & SPOT) and orthophotography images, and conducted four field campaigns between October 2013 and October 2014, comprising topographic (RTK-DGPS) and hydrodynamic (pressure sensors) measurements. The results show intense erosion of 150 m/year affecting the polders since 2001, and lesser retreat (30 to 100 m/year) of the adjacent sectors colonized by mangrove forests. The erosive shoreface shows the same structure in each polder compartment: a chenier beach which freely retreats backwards under the influence of wave overwash. The chenier retreat rate is 100 m/year and it appears to be more intense (net retreat of 45 m) during the high wave-energy season (December to March), which generates more overwashing. In front of the chenier, we observed a large (50 m) inter-tidal mud bed showing different levels of induration and bioturbation by mangrove roots. The mud shorefaces exhibit an erosion rate of 100 m/year on average

  4. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  5. Support for significant evolutions of the user data model in ROOT files

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canal, Ph; Russo, P; Brun, R; Janyst, L; Fine, V; Lauret, J

    2010-01-01

    One of the main strengths of ROOT input and output (I/O) is its inherent support for schema evolution. Two distinct modes are supported, one manual via a hand coded streamer function and one fully automatic via the ROOT StreamerInfo. One draw back of the streamer functions is that they are not usable by TTree objects in split mode. Until now, the user could not customize the automatic schema evolution mechanism and the only mechanism to go beyond the default rules was to revert to using the streamer function. In ROOT 5.22/00, we introduced a new mechanism which allows user provided extensions of the automatic schema evolution that can be used in object-wise, member-wise and split modes. This paper will describe the many possibilities ranging from the simple assignment of transient members to the complex reorganization of the user's object model.

  6. THE PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELING. II. THE CHALLENGE OF COMPARING GALAXY EVOLUTION MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conroy, Charlie; Gunn, James E.; White, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Models for the formation and evolution of galaxies readily predict physical properties such as star formation rates, metal-enrichment histories, and, increasingly, gas and dust content of synthetic galaxies. Such predictions are frequently compared to the spectral energy distributions of observed galaxies via the stellar population synthesis (SPS) technique. Substantial uncertainties in SPS exist, and yet their relevance to the task of comparing galaxy evolution models to observations has received little attention. In the present work, we begin to address this issue by investigating the importance of uncertainties in stellar evolution, the initial stellar mass function (IMF), and dust and interstellar medium (ISM) properties on the translation from models to observations. We demonstrate that these uncertainties translate into substantial uncertainties in the ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared colors of synthetic galaxies. Aspects that carry significant uncertainties include the logarithmic slope of the IMF above 1 M sun , dust attenuation law, molecular cloud disruption timescale, clumpiness of the ISM, fraction of unobscured starlight, and treatment of advanced stages of stellar evolution including blue stragglers, the horizontal branch, and the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch. The interpretation of the resulting uncertainties in the derived colors is highly non-trivial because many of the uncertainties are likely systematic, and possibly correlated with the physical properties of galaxies. We therefore urge caution when comparing models to observations.

  7. A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAB Coutinho

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more virulent strain prevails.

  8. A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coutinho FAB

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more virulent strain prevails.

  9. Modelling of surface evolution of rough surface on divertor target in fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, Shuyu; Liu, Shengguang; Sun, Jizhong; Kirschner, A.; Kawamura, G.; Tskhakaya, D.; Ding, Rui; Luo, Guangnan; Wang, Dezhen

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study the surface evolution of rough surface on divertor target in fusion devices. • The effects of gyration motion and E × B drift affect 3D angular distribution. • A larger magnetic field angle leads to a reduced net eroded areal density. • The rough surface evolution affects the physical sputtering yield. - Abstract: The 3D Monte-Carlo code SURO has been used to study the surface evolution of rough surface on the divertor target in fusion devices. The edge plasma at divertor region is modelled by the SDPIC code and used as input data for SURO. Coupled with SDPIC, SURO can perform more sophisticated simulations to calculate the local angle and surface evolution of rough surface. The simulation results show that the incident direction of magnetic field, gyration and E × B force has a significant impact on 3D angular distribution of background plasma and accordingly on the erosion of rough surface. The net eroded areal density of rough surface is studied by varying the magnetic field angle with surface normal. The evolution of the microscopic morphology of rough surface can lead to a significant change in the physical sputtering yield

  10. A branch-heterogeneous model of protein evolution for efficient inference of ancestral sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groussin, M; Boussau, B; Gouy, M

    2013-07-01

    Most models of nucleotide or amino acid substitution used in phylogenetic studies assume that the evolutionary process has been homogeneous across lineages and that composition of nucleotides or amino acids has remained the same throughout the tree. These oversimplified assumptions are refuted by the observation that compositional variability characterizes extant biological sequences. Branch-heterogeneous models of protein evolution that account for compositional variability have been developed, but are not yet in common use because of the large number of parameters required, leading to high computational costs and potential overparameterization. Here, we present a new branch-nonhomogeneous and nonstationary model of protein evolution that captures more accurately the high complexity of sequence evolution. This model, henceforth called Correspondence and likelihood analysis (COaLA), makes use of a correspondence analysis to reduce the number of parameters to be optimized through maximum likelihood, focusing on most of the compositional variation observed in the data. The model was thoroughly tested on both simulated and biological data sets to show its high performance in terms of data fitting and CPU time. COaLA efficiently estimates ancestral amino acid frequencies and sequences, making it relevant for studies aiming at reconstructing and resurrecting ancestral amino acid sequences. Finally, we applied COaLA on a concatenate of universal amino acid sequences to confirm previous results obtained with a nonhomogeneous Bayesian model regarding the early pattern of adaptation to optimal growth temperature, supporting the mesophilic nature of the Last Universal Common Ancestor.

  11. Self-organized Criticality in a Modified Evolution Model on Generalized Barabasi-Albert Scale-Free Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Min; Wang Gang; Chen Tianlun

    2007-01-01

    A modified evolution model of self-organized criticality on generalized Barabasi-Albert (GBA) scale-free networks is investigated. In our model, we find that spatial and temporal correlations exhibit critical behaviors. More importantly, these critical behaviors change with the parameter b, which weights the distance in comparison with the degree in the GBA network evolution.

  12. Effects of erosion control structures along a portion of the northern Chesapeake Bay shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabawa, C.F.; Kerhin, R.T.; Bayley, S.

    1981-01-01

    A 6.500-meter reach of western Chesapeake Bay shoreline (lower Mayo Peninsula) lost about 1.1??106 cubic meters of sediment (equivalent to 170 cubic meters lost per meter of shoreline) between 1846 and 1932, when the first aerial photographs show the shoreline already substantially protected by a system of groins and intermittent bulkheading. These structures have eliminated the fastland as a source of erodable material, and have starved the supply of sand for littoral drift, thus limiting the extent of the beaches to the remaining groin fields. Volumes of sediment involved in these impacts are small in the overall sediment budget. Bulkheads produce no deficit in the budget since scouring of the beaches on their seaward sides makes up for the decreased erosion of protected fastland. Groins trap little of the potential littoral drift (computed to be about 104 cubic meters per meter of shoreline per year). The sand supply in the remaining beaches is nearly equivalent to the annual loss of sediment from the entire shoreline system due to the long-term rate of erosion of the shoreline and nearshore between 1846 and 1932. ?? 1981 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  13. Vegetation of natural and artificial shorelines in Upper Klamath Basin’s fringe wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Andrew M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Hamilton, Andy S.

    2013-01-01

    The Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in northern California and southern Oregon supports large hypereutrophic lakes surrounded by natural and artificial shorelines. Lake shorelines contain fringe wetlands that provide key ecological services to the people of this region. These wetlands also provide a context for drawing inferences about how differing wetland types and wave exposure contribute to the vegetative assemblages in lake-fringe wetlands. Here, we summarize how elevation profiles and vegetation richness vary as a function of wave exposure and wetland type. Our results show that levee wetland shorelines are 4X steeper and support fewer species than other wetland types. We also summarize the occurrence probability of the five common wetland plant species that represent the overwhelming majority of the diversity of these wetlands. In brief, the occurrence probability of the culturally significant Nuphar lutea spp. polysepala and the invasive Phalaris arundinacea in wave exposed and sheltered sites varies based on wetland type. The occurrence probability for P. arundinacea was greatest in exposed portions of deltaic shorelines, but these trends were reversed on levees where the occurrence probability was greater in sheltered sites. The widespread Schoenoplectus acutus var. acutus occurred throughout all wetland and exposure type combinations but had a higher probability of occurrence in wave exposed sites. Results from this work will add to our current understanding of how wetland shoreline profiles interact with wave exposure to influence the occurrence probability of the dominant vegetative species in UKB’s shoreline wetlands.

  14. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville and Eberswalde Crater of Mars: Quantitative Methods for Recognizing Poorly Developed Lacustrine Shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, P. W.

    2014-12-01

    The ability to quantify shoreline features on Earth has been aided by advances in acquisition of high-resolution topography through laser imaging and photogrammetry. Well-defined and well-documented features such as the Bonneville, Provo, and Stansbury shorelines of Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville are recognizable to the untrained eye and easily mappable on aerial photos. The continuity and correlation of lesser shorelines must rely quantitative algorithms for processing high-resolution data in order to gain widespread scientific acceptance. Using Savitsky-Golay filters and the geomorphic methods and criteria described by Hare et al. [2001], minor, transgressive, erosional shorelines of Lake Bonneville have been identified and correlated across the basin with varying degrees of statistical confidence. Results solve one of the key paradoxes of Lake Bonneville first described by G. K. Gilbert in the late 19th century and point the way for understanding climatically driven oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Great Basin of the United States. Similar techniques have been applied to the Eberswalde Crater area of Mars using HRiSE DEMs (1 m horizontal resolution) where a paleolake is hypothesized to have existed. Results illustrate the challenges of identifying shorelines where long term aeolian processes have degraded the shorelines and field validation is not possible. The work illustrates the promises and challenges of indentifying remnants of a global ocean elsewhere on the red planet.

  15. The development and application of landscape evolution models to coupled coast-estuarine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) are proven to be useful tools in understanding the morphodynamics of coast and estuarine systems. However, perhaps owing to the lack of research in this area, current models are not capable of simulating the dynamic interactions between these systems and their co-evolution at the meso-scale. Through a novel coupling of numerical models, this research is designed to explore coupled coastal-estuarine interactions, controls on system behaviour and the influence that environmental change could have. This will contribute to the understanding of the morphodynamics of these systems and how they may behave and evolve over the next century in response to climate changes, with the aim of informing management practices. This goal is being achieved through the modification and coupling of the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with the hydrodynamic LEM CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L). The major issues faced with coupling these programs are their differing complexities and the limited graphical visualisations produced by the CEM that hinder the dissemination of results. The work towards overcoming these issues and reported here, include a new version of the CEM that incorporates a range of more complex geomorphological processes and boasts a graphical user interface that guides users through model set-up and projects a live output during model runs. The improved version is a stand-alone tool that can be used for further research projects and for teaching purposes. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method has been completed to identify which key variables, including wave climate, erosion and weathering values, dominate the control of model behaviour. The model is being applied and tested using the evolution of the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point on the east coast of England (UK), which possess diverse geomorphologies and complex, co-evolving sediment pathways. Simulations using the modified CEM are currently being completed to

  16. A Geological Model for the Evolution of Early Continents (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, P. F.; Coltice, N.; Flament, N. E.; Thébaud, N.

    2013-12-01

    Geochemical probing of ancient sediments (REE in black shales, strontium composition of carbonates, oxygen isotopes in zircons...) suggests that continents were a late Archean addition at Earth's surface. Yet, geochemical probing of ancient basalts reveals that they were extracted from a mantle depleted of its crustal elements early in the Archean. Considerations on surface geology, the early Earth hypsometry and the rheology and density structure of Archean continents can help solve this paradox. Surface geology: The surface geology of Archean cratons is characterized by thick continental flood basalts (CFBs, including greenstones) emplaced on felsic crusts dominated by Trondhjemite-Tonalite-Granodiorite (TTG) granitoids. This simple geology is peculiar because i/ most CFBs were emplaced below sea level, ii/ after their emplacement, CFBs were deformed into relatively narrow, curviplanar belts (greenstone basins) wrapping around migmatitic TTG domes, and iii/ Archean greenstone belts are richly endowed with gold and other metals deposits. Flat Earth hypothesis: From considerations on early Earth continental geotherm and density structure, Rey and Coltice (2008) propose that, because of the increased ability of the lithosphere to flow laterally, orogenic processes in the Archean produced only subdued topography (model consistent with many of the peculiar attributes of Archean geology, can be proposed: 1/ Continents appeared at Earth's surface at an early stage during the Hadean/Archean. However, because they were i/ covered by continental flood basalts, ii/ below sea level, and iii/ deprived of modern-style mountain belts and orogenic plateaux, early felsic

  17. Modelling Coupled Processes in the Evolution of Repository Engineered Barrier Systems using QPAC-EBS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maul, Philip; Benbow, Steven; Bond, Alex; Robinson, Peter (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2010-08-15

    A satisfactory understanding of the evolution of repository engineered barrier systems (EBS) is an essential part of the safety case for the repository. This involves consideration of coupled Thermal (T), Hydro (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes. Quintessa's general-purpose modelling code QPAC is capable of representing strongly coupled non-linear processes and has been used in a wide range of applications. This code is the basis for software used by Quintessa in studies of the evolution of the EBS in a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel undertaken for SKI and then SSM since 2007. The collection of software components employed has been referred to collectively as QPAC-EBS, consisting of the core QPAC code together with relevant modules for T, H, M and C processes. QPAC-EBS employs a fundamentally different approach from dedicated codes that model such processes (although few codes can represent each type of process), enabling the specification of new processes and the associated governing equations in code input. Studies undertaken to date have demonstrated that QPAC-EBS can be used effectively to investigate both the early evolution of the EBS and important scenarios for the later evolution of the system when buffer erosion and canister corrosion may occur. A key issue for modelling EBS evolution is the satisfactory modelling of the behaviour of the bentonite buffer. Bentonite is a difficult material to model, partly because of the complex coupled mechanical, hydro and chemical processes involved in swelling during resaturation. Models employed to date have generally taken an empirical approach, but a new model developed during the EU THERESA project could be further developed to provide a better representation of these processes. QPAC-EBS could play an important role in supporting SSM.s review of the forthcoming SR-Site assessment by SKB if used by Quintessa in independent supporting calculations. To date radionuclide transport calculations

  18. Texture evolution in upset-forged P/M and wrought tantalum: Experimentation and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bingert, J.F.; Desch, P.B.; Bingert, S.R.; Maudlin, P.J.; Tome, C.N.

    1997-11-01

    Preferred orientations in polycrystalline materials can significantly affect their physical and mechanical response through the retention of anisotropic properties inherent to the single crystal. In this study the texture evolution in upset-forged PIM and wrought tantalum was measured as a function of initial texture, compressive strain, and relative position in the pressing. A / duplex fiber texture parallel to the compression axis was generally observed, with varying degrees of a radial component evident in the wrought material. The development of deformation textures derives from restricted crystallographic slip conditions that generate lattice rotations, and these grain reorientations can be modeled as a function of the prescribed deformation gradient. Texture development was simulated for equivalent deformations using both a modified Taylor approach and a viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) model. A comparison between the predicted evolution and experimental results shows a good correlation with the texture components, but an overly sharp prediction at large strains from both the Taylor and VPSC models

  19. A random walk evolution model of wireless sensor networks and virus spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ya-Qi; Yang Xiao-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, considering both cluster heads and sensor nodes, we propose a novel evolving a network model based on a random walk to study the fault tolerance decrease of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) due to node failure, and discuss the spreading dynamic behavior of viruses in the evolution model. A theoretical analysis shows that the WSN generated by such an evolution model not only has a strong fault tolerance, but also can dynamically balance the energy loss of the entire network. It is also found that although the increase of the density of cluster heads in the network reduces the network efficiency, it can effectively inhibit the spread of viruses. In addition, the heterogeneity of the network improves the network efficiency and enhances the virus prevalence. We confirm all the theoretical results with sufficient numerical simulations. (general)

  20. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...