WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling shoreline evolution

  1. A numerical shoreline model for shorelines with large curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new numerical model for shoreline change which can be used to model the evolution of shorelines with large curvature. The model is based on a one-line formulation in terms of coordinates which follow the shape of the shoreline, instead of the more common approach where the two...... orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment...... transport field across the coastal profile to obtain the longshore sediment transport variation along the shoreline. The model is used to compute the evolution of a shoreline with a 90° change in shoreline orientation; due to this drastic change in orientation a migrating shoreline spit develops...

  2. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    on the wave conditions and the coastal profile: undulations with no spits, undulations with flying spits and undulations with reconnecting spits. It is further shown that the evolution of the shoreline undulations is governed mainly by the angle between the shoreline and the incoming waves and the curvature...... that this shoreline is right at the limit between a stable and an unstable shoreline....

  3. Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2012-01-01

    A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

  4. Variability of shore and shoreline evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stive, Marcel J.F.; Aarninkhof, Stefan G.J.; Hamm, Luc; Hanson, Hans; Larson, Magnus; Wijnberg, Kathelijne Mariken; Nicholls, Robert J.; Capobianco, Michele; Capobianco, Michele

    2002-01-01

    Shore and shoreline evolution both due to natural and human-induced causes or factors can be variable over a wide range of different temporal and/or spatial scales. Our capability to understand and especially predict this variability is still limited. This can lead to misinterpretation of coastal

  5. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a numerical study of the non-linear development of alongshore undulations up to fully developed quasi-steady equilibrium. A numerical model which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines is applied, based on a spectral wave model, a depth...... integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described....... In the fully non-linear regime down-drift spits and migrating shoreline undulations are described.Three different shoreline shapes are found depending on the wave conditions: undulations with no spits, undulations with shore parallel spit and undulations with reconnecting spits. © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V....

  6. Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

    2015-04-01

    Coastal zones are fragile and dynamic environments where environmental, economic and social aspects are interconnected. While these areas are often highly urbanised, they are especially vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g. storms, floods, erosion, storm surges). Hence, high risk affects people and goods in several coastal zones throughout the world. The recent storms that hit the European coasts (Hercules, Christian and Stephanie, among others) showed the high vulnerability of these territories. Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) deals with the sustainable development of coastal zones by taking into account the different aspects that affect them, including risks adaptation and mitigation. Accurate mapping of shoreline position through time and models to predict shoreline evolution play a fundamental role for coastal zone risk management. In this context, spaceborne remote sensing is fundamental because it provides synoptic and multitemporal information that allow the extraction of shorelines' proxies. These are stable coastal features (e.g. the vegetation lines, the foredune toe, etc.) that can be mapped instead of the proper shoreline, which is an extremely dynamic boundary. The use of different proxies may provide different evolutionary patterns for the same study area; therefore it is important to assess which is the most suitable, given the environmental characteristics of a specific area. In Portugal, the coastal stretch between Ovar and Marinha Grande is one of the greatest national challenges in terms of integrated management of resources and risks. This area is characterised by intense erosive processes that largely exceed the shoreline's retreat predictions made in the first Coastal Zone Management Plan, developed in 2000. The aim of this work was to assess the accuracy of a new model of shoreline evolution implemented in 2013 in order to check its robustness for short-term predictions. The method exploited the potentialities of the Landsat archive

  7. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  8. UAV survey of a Thyrrenian micro-tidal beach for shoreline evolution update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Pugliano, Giovanni; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Mucerino, Luigi

    2015-04-01

    Coastal geomorphology requires increasingly accurate topographic information of the beach systems to perform reliable simulation of coastal erosion, flooding phenomena, and coastal vulnerability assessment. Among the range of terrestrial and aerial methods available to produce such a dataset, this study tests the utility of low-altitude aerial imageries collected by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The image-based approach was selected whilst searching for a rapid, inexpensive, and highly automated method, able to produce 3D information from unstructured aerial images. In particular, it was used to generate a high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) of the micro-tidal beach of Serapo - Gaeta (LT) in order to obtain recent update of erosional/accretional trends already established through historical shoreline evolution. A UAV exacopter (fig. 1a) was used, weighing about 2500g, carrying on board a GPS and multi-directional accelerometer to ensure a recovery of the beach features (fig. 1b) through a sweep with constant speed, direction and altitude. The on-board camera was a Canon 16M pixels, with fixed and constant focal takeoff in order to perform the 3D cloud points. Six adjacent strips were performed for the survey realization with pictures taken every second in sequence, in order to allow a minimum 80% overlap. A direct on site survey was also carried out with a DGPS for the placement of GPS markers and the geo-referencing of the final product (fig. 1c). Each flight with constant speed, direction and altitude recorded from 500 to 800 shots. The height of flight was dictated by the scale of the final report, an altitude of 100m was used for the beach survey. The topographic survey on the ground for the placement of the control points was performed with the Trimble R6 DGPS in RTK mode. The long-term shoreline evolution was obtained by a sixty-year historical shoreline time-series, through the analysis of a number of aerial photographs dating from 1954 to 2013. The

  9. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 2: Varying wave climate and comparison with observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    The present work applies the shoreline model from part 1 to a real environment. In part 1, a numerical shoreline model which could handle the development of arbitrarily shaped shorelines was applied to consider the development of shoreline undulations on an unstable shoreline exposed to incoming...... waves with a directional spreading. In this paper, these findings are extended to firstly include the effect of a varying wave climate on the shoreline morphology and secondly, to tune the model to two naturally occurring shorelines. It is found that the effect of a variable wave climate is to slow down...... the development of the morphology and in some cases to inhibit the formation of shore-parallel spits at the crest of the undulations. On one of the natural shorelines, the west coast of Namibia, the shore is exposed to very obliquely waves from one main direction. Here, the shoreline model is able to describe...

  10. Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline changes along the coast between sousse- Monastir (Eastearn of Tunisia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathallah, S.; Ben Amor, R.; Gueddari, M.

    2009-04-01

    Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline Changes along the coast between Sousse-Monastir (Eastern of Tunisia). Safa Fathallah*, Rim Ben Amor and Moncef Gueddari Unit of Research of Geochemistry and Environmental Geology. Faculty of Science of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, 2092. (*) Corresponding author: safa_fathallah@yahoo.fr The coast of Sousse-Monastir in eastern of Tunisia, has undergone great changes, due to natural and anthropic factors. Increasing human use, the construction of two ports and coastal urbanization (hotels and industries) has accelerated the erosion process. The coastal defense structures (breakwaters and enrockment), built to protect the most eroded zone are efficient, but eroded zones appeared in the southern part of breakwaters. Recent and historic aerial photography was used to estimate, observe, and analyze past shoreline and bathymetric positions and trends involving shore evolution for Sousse-Monastir coast. All of the photographs were calibrated and mosaicked by Arc Map Gis 9.1, the years used are 1925, 1962, 1988, 1996, and 2001 for shoreline change analysis and 1884 and 2001 for bathymetric changes. The analyze of this photographs show that the zone located at the south of breakwater are mostly eroded with high speed process (2m/year). Another zone appears as eroded at the south part of Hamdoun River, with 1,5m/year erosion speed . Keywords: Shoreline evolution, defense structures, Sousse-Monastir coast, Tunisia.

  11. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  12. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-04-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  13. Medium-term shoreline evolution of the mediterranean coast of Andalusia (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Vincenzo; Manno, Giorgio; Messina, Enrica; Anfuso, Giorgio; Suffo, Miguel

    2015-04-01

    Coastal environment is a dynamic system in which numerous natural processes are continuously actuating and interacting among them. As a result, geomorphologic, physical and biological characteristics of coastal environments are constantly changing. Such dynamic balance is nowadays seriously threatened by the strong and increasing anthropic pressure that favors erosion processes, and the associated loss of environmental, ecologic and economic aspects. Sandy beaches are the most vulnerable environments in coastal areas. The aim of this work was to reconstruct the historical evolution of the Mediterranean coastline of Andalusia, Spain. The investigated area is about 500 km in length and includes the provinces of Cadiz, Malaga, Granada and Almeria. It is essentially composed by cliffed sectors with sand and gravel pocket beaches constituting independent morphological cells of different dimensions. This study was based on the analysis of aerial photos and satellite images covering a period of 55 years, between 1956 and 2011. Aerial photos were scanned and geo-referenced in order to solve scale and distortion problems. The shoreline was considered and mapped through the identification of the wet / dry sand limit which coincides with the line of maximum run-up; this indicator - representing the shoreline at the moment of the photo - is the most easily identifiable and representative one in microtidal coastal environments. Since shoreline position is linked to beach profile characteristics and to waves, tide and wind conditions at the moment of the photo, such parameters were taken into account in the calculation of shoreline position and changes. Specifically, retreat/accretion changes were reconstructed applying the DSAS method (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) proposed by the US Geological Survey. Significant beach accretion was observed at Playa La Mamola (Granada), with +1 m/y, because the construction of five breakwaters, and at Playa El Cantal (Almeria) and close

  14. Effects of shoreline sensitivity on oil spill trajectory modeling of the Lower Mississippi River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danchuk, Samantha; Willson, Clinton S

    2010-02-01

    The Lower Mississippi River is a major transportation route for commercial goods and petroleum products produced and refined locally. Oil spills caused by vessel accidents and equipment failure at refineries are a serious threat to the drinking water supply of Southern Louisiana, as well as to the many natural, economic, and social resources supported by the river. Providing accurate trajectory modeling to contingency planners is critical to protecting the local environment. The majority of trajectory model results, assuming a uniform shoreline, show 60-70% of spilled oil can be retained. This study examines the impact of detailed shoreline mapping that captures spatial and temporal changes in shoreline type on oil spill trajectory modeling. Detailed shoreline maps based on recent remote sensing imagery were generated to identify spatial changes in shoreline. A hydrodynamic model of the 78 mile reach from Convent, Louisiana to West Pointe a la Hache was developed to obtain the stage levels and velocity fields of four river discharges. Based on river stage level, another layer was added to the shoreline maps, so that shoreline type was accurately represented at each river discharge, a feature not included in previous mapping. An oil spill trajectory model was then used to investigate the effect of implementing different re-floatation half-lives that correlate to the shoreline maps developed for this study at four river discharges. Detailed shoreline mapping showed the Lower Mississippi River has four major shoreline types each with different oil re-floatation half-lives: muddy clay, sand, low vegetation, and high vegetation. As flow rate changed, the shoreline spatial variability also changed, from 84% mud/sand and 16% vegetation at low flow rates to 4% mud and 96% vegetation at higher flow rates. At flow rates with large variability in shoreline type, the distribution of oil attached to the shore was significantly different from results of simulations that used a

  15. Rapid adjustment of shoreline behavior to changing seasonality of storms : Observations and modelling at an open-coast beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Splinter, Kristen D.; Turner, Ian L.; Reinhardt, Mika; Ruessink, B.G.

    2017-01-01

    An 8-year time series of weekly shoreline data collected at the Gold Coast, Australia, is used to examine the temporal evolution of a beach, focusing on the frequency response of the shoreline to time-varying wave height and period. Intriguingly, during 2005 the movement of the shoreline at this

  16. Calibration of Numerical Model for Shoreline Change Prediction Using Satellite Imagery Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Sutikno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calibration of numerical model for shoreline change prediction using satellite imagery data in muddy beach. Tanjung Motong beach, a muddy beach that is suffered high abrasion in Rangsang Island, Riau province, Indonesia was picked as study area. The primary numerical modeling tool used in this research was GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline change, which has been successfully applied in many case studies of shoreline change phenomena on a sandy beach.The model was calibrated using two extracted coastlines satellite imagery data, such as Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS. The extracted coastline data were analyzed by using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System tool to get the rate of shoreline change from 1990 to 2014. The main purpose of the calibration process was to find out the appropriate value for K 1 and K coefficients so that the predicted shoreline change had an acceptable correlation with the output of the satellite data processing. The result of this research showed that the shoreline change prediction had a good correlation with the historical evidence data in Tanjung Motong coast. It means that the GENESIS tool is not only applicable for shoreline prediction in sandy beach but also in muddy beach.

  17. Monitoring and modeling shoreline response due to shoreface nourishment on a high-energy coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, P. L.; Erikson, Li H.; Hansen, J. E.

    2009-01-01

    Shoreface nourishment can be an efficient technique to feed sediment into the littoral zone without the order of magnitude cost increase incurred by directly nourishing the beach. An erosion hot spot at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, USA, threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location, a new beneficial reuse plan was implemented in May 2005 for the sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. From 2005 to 2007, approximately 230,000 m of sand was placed annually at depths between 9 and 14 m, in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves could potentially feed sediment onto the section of beach experiencing critical erosion. The evolution of the disposal mound and adjacent beach were monitored with 12 multibeam bathymetric surveys, and over 40 high-resolution beach topographic surveys. In addition, sediment transport processes were investigated using sediment grab samples, acoustic Doppler profilers, and two separate models: a cross-shore profile model (UNIBEST-TC) and a coastal area model (Delft3D). The results of the monitoring and modeling demonstrate that the disposal mound may be effective in dissipating wave energy striking this vulnerable stretch of coast with negligible shadowing effects, but a positive shoreline response can only be achieved by placing the sediment in water depths less than 5 m. 

  18. Short-term shoreline evolution trend assessment: A case study in Glefe, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwadwo Y. Amoani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The growing economic, social and ecological importance of coastal areas in Ghana has increased the challenges associated with sustainably managing the coastal resources. The coastal areas have become more prone and vulnerable to natural and human-made hazards such as coastal erosion. Shoreline retreat is recognised as a burgeoning threat because of global climate change and other anthropogenic activities that alter the natural processes sustaining beaches and coasts. This article describes an application of Real-time Kinematic-Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS technology and digitising of shorelines from orthophotos to detect and analyse the spatial changes as well as quantify the result of shoreline change at Glefe, a suburb of Accra in Ghana. Shoreline positions from a 2005 orthophoto and a 2011 RTK-GPS survey were overlaid in MATLAB (Matrix Laboratory and the average rate of change determined using the endpoint rate (EPR method. The shoreline change rate determined for Glefe between 2005 and 2011 was 1.2 m/a ± 1.3 m/a, indicating a relatively high rate of erosion. Outcomes of the case study can be used as a basis for a sustainable integrated management plan for the coastal area.

  19. Hybrid morphological modelling of shoreline response to a detached breakwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils; Deigaard, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    We present a new type of model for calculating morphological changes induced by the presence of breakwaters. The model combines a process based area model, used to calculate the sediment transport field in the two horizontal dimensions, with a simplified morphological updating scheme where the ev...

  20. Modeling shoreline bioremediation: Continuous flow and seawater exchange columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramstad, S.; Sveum, P.; Bech, C.; Faksness, L.G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and use of the columns in the study of bioremediation processes, and gives some results from an experiment designed to study the effects of different additives (fish meal, stick water, and Max Bac) on biodegradation of crude oil. There is significant difference in oil degradation(nC 17 /pristane ratio) between the column with additives and those without. Open system models in this type of open column give valuable data o how the chemical and biological parameters, including oil degradation, are affected by the additives, and simultaneously by the dilutive effect of seawater washing through the sediment, and for optimizing formulations. The system is designed with a large number of units and provides a good first approximation for mesocosm studies and field experiments, thus reducing the need for large numbers of such resource-demanding experiments

  1. Exploring the sensitivities of crenulate bay shorelines to wave climates using a new vector-based one-line model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, Martin D.; Barkwith, Andrew; Ellis, Michael A.; Thomas, Chris W.; Murray, A. Brad

    2015-12-01

    We use a new exploratory model that simulates the evolution of sandy coastlines over decadal to centennial timescales to examine the behavior of crenulate-shaped bays forced by differing directional wave climates. The model represents the coastline as a vector in a Cartesian reference frame, and the shoreface evolves relative to its local orientation, allowing simulation of coasts with high planform-curvature. Shoreline change is driven by gradients in alongshore transport following newly developed algorithms that facilitate dealing with high planform-curvature coastlines. We simulated the evolution of bays from a straight coast between two fixed headlands with no external sediment inputs to an equilibrium condition (zero net alongshore sediment flux) under an ensemble of directional wave climate conditions. We find that planform bay relief increases with obliquity of the mean wave direction, and decreases with the spread of wave directions. Varying bay size over 2 orders of magnitude (0.1-16 km), the model predicts bay shape to be independent of bay size. The time taken for modeled bays to attain equilibrium was found to scale with the square of the distance between headlands, so that, all else being equal, small bays are likely to respond to and recover from perturbations more rapidly (over just a few years) compared to large bays (hundreds of years). Empirical expressions predicting bay shape may be misleading if used to predict their behavior over planning timescales.

  2. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...

  3. Deepwater Horizon MC252 shoreline data from the Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) containing shoreline exposure and data related to the shoreline exposure model, coastal wetland vegetation sites and other datasets collected between 2010-01-01 to 2015-01-01 for the DWH response in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NCEI Accession 0163814)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Archival Information Package (AIP) contains Environmental Resource Management Application (ERMA) GIS layers including shoreline exposure model for beach and...

  4. Self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand wave generation: Sensitivity to model and physical parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idier, Déborah; Falqués, Albert; Rohmer, Jérémy; Arriaga, Jaime

    2017-09-01

    The instability mechanisms for self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves have been extensively explored by modeling. However, while the assumed bathymetric perturbation associated with the sand wave controls the feedback between morphology and waves, its effect on the instability onset has not been explored. In addition, no systematic investigation of the effect of the physical parameters has been done yet. Using a linear stability model, we investigate the effect of wave conditions, cross-shore profile, closure depth, and two perturbation shapes (P1: cross-shore bathymetric profile shift, and P2: bed level perturbation linearly decreasing offshore). For a P1 perturbation, no instability occurs below an absolute critical angle θc0≈ 40-50°. For a P2 perturbation, there is no absolute critical angle: sand waves can develop also for low-angle waves. In fact, the bathymetric perturbation shape plays a key role in low-angle wave instability: such instability only develops if the curvature of the depth contours offshore the breaking zone is larger than the shoreline one. This can occur for the P2 perturbation but not for P1. The analysis of bathymetric data suggests that both curvature configurations could exist in nature. For both perturbation types, large wave angle, small wave period, and large closure depth strongly favor instability. The cross-shore profile has almost no effect with a P1 perturbation, whereas large surf zone slope and gently sloping shoreface strongly enhance instability under low-angle waves for a P2 perturbation. Finally, predictive statistical models are set up to identify sites prone to exhibit either a critical angle close to θc0 or low-angle wave instability.

  5. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  6. Predictive modeling of subsurface shoreline oil encounter probability from the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Zachary; Michel, Jacqueline

    2015-04-07

    To better understand the distribution of remaining lingering subsurface oil residues from the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) along the shorelines of Prince William Sound (PWS), AK, we revised previous modeling efforts to allow spatially explicit predictions of the distribution of subsurface oil. We used a set of pooled field data and predictor variables stored as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data to generate calibrated boosted tree models predicting the encounter probability of different categories of subsurface oil. The models demonstrated excellent predictive performance as evaluated by cross-validated performance statistics. While the average encounter probabilities at most shoreline locations are low across western PWS, clusters of shoreline locations with elevated encounter probabilities remain in the northern parts of the PWS, as well as more isolated locations. These results can be applied to estimate the location and amount of remaining oil, evaluate potential ongoing impacts, and guide remediation. This is the first application of quantitative machine-learning based modeling techniques in estimating the likelihood of ongoing, long-term shoreline oil persistence after a major oil spill.

  7. Elastic source model of the North Mono eruption (1325-1368 A.D.) based on shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Wil; Bursik, Marcus; Renshaw, Carl

    2010-12-01

    Topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) captures the permanent deformation of a prominent highstand of Mono Lake, California USA. Deformation of the Dechambeau Ranch highstand shoreline was measured using the elevation of the beach berm—shoreline bluff break-in-slope. Point source models and a boundary element dike model were used to approximate the source of deformation underneath the northern end of the Mono Craters. The point source model could not adequately explain the observed deformation. The dike model yielded the best results for a NW trending dike dipping 60° NE and inflated to widths greater than 60 m. The results suggest that the geometry of the source is more complex than a simple vertical dike and that the deformation is better explained with a dipping dike following a normal fault, or an elongated cryptodome.

  8. The basics for a permanent observatory of shoreline evolution in tropical environments; lessons from back-reef beaches in La Reunion Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahabot, Marie-Myriam; Jaud, Marion; Pennober, Gwenaëlle; Le Dantec, Nicolas; Troadec, Roland; Suanez, Serge; Delacourt, Christophe

    2017-10-01

    Under natural and anthropogenic pressure, the coastal regions are evolving rapidly (population growth, erosion, modification of services, etc.), and some of these changes increase their vulnerability. Monitoring the evolution of the coastal regions has thus become essential to understand how they respond to the various pressures and to define how their resilience could be increased. Among other outcomes, such monitoring should provide continuous, high-resolution data on the spatial and temporal evolution of the coastal areas, especially the shoreline zone. One appropriate way to acquire long, continuous, time series of data is to set up a permanent observatory in the zone to be monitored. This paper aims to provide recommendations and a methodological framework to set up a "shoreline observatory" dedicated to monitor some of the specific features and behaviours of tropical littorals, more particularly back-reef beaches and their geomorphic changes. After a brief review of carbonate sandy beach morphodynamics, we present survey solutions (TLS, UAV photogrammetry) to monitor at high resolution and repeatedly the geomorphic changes of the coastal area, both on land and in shallow water. The example case is that of the back-reef beaches in La Reunion Island.

  9. Persistent shoreline shape induced from offshore geologic framework: Effects of shoreface connected ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Schwab, William C.

    2017-01-01

    Mechanisms relating offshore geologic framework to shoreline evolution are determined through geologic investigations, oceanographic deployments, and numerical modeling. Analysis of shoreline positions from the past 50 years along Fire Island, New York, a 50 km long barrier island, demonstrates a persistent undulating shape along the western half of the island. The shelf offshore of these persistent undulations is characterized with shoreface-connected sand ridges (SFCR) of a similar alongshore length scale, leading to a hypothesis that the ridges control the shoreline shape through the modification of flow. To evaluate this, a hydrodynamic model was configured to start with the US East Coast and scale down to resolve the Fire Island nearshore. The model was validated using observations along western Fire Island and buoy data, and used to compute waves, currents and sediment fluxes. To isolate the influence of the SFCR on the generation of the persistent shoreline shape, simulations were performed with a linearized nearshore bathymetry to remove alongshore transport gradients associated with shoreline shape. The model accurately predicts the scale and variation of the alongshore transport that would generate the persistent shoreline undulations. In one location, however, the ridge crest connects to the nearshore and leads to an offshore-directed transport that produces a difference in the shoreline shape. This qualitatively supports the hypothesized effect of cross-shore fluxes on coastal evolution. Alongshore flows in the nearshore during a representative storm are driven by wave breaking, vortex force, advection and pressure gradient, all of which are affected by the SFCR.

  10. Persistent Shoreline Shape Induced From Offshore Geologic Framework: Effects of Shoreface Connected Ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey H.; Warner, John C.; Schwab, William C.

    2017-11-01

    Mechanisms relating offshore geologic framework to shoreline evolution are determined through geologic investigations, oceanographic deployments, and numerical modeling. Analysis of shoreline positions from the past 50 years along Fire Island, New York, a 50 km long barrier island, demonstrates a persistent undulating shape along the western half of the island. The shelf offshore of these persistent undulations is characterized with shoreface-connected sand ridges (SFCR) of a similar alongshore length scale, leading to a hypothesis that the ridges control the shoreline shape through the modification of flow. To evaluate this, a hydrodynamic model was configured to start with the US East Coast and scale down to resolve the Fire Island nearshore. The model was validated using observations along western Fire Island and buoy data, and used to compute waves, currents and sediment fluxes. To isolate the influence of the SFCR on the generation of the persistent shoreline shape, simulations were performed with a linearized nearshore bathymetry to remove alongshore transport gradients associated with shoreline shape. The model accurately predicts the scale and variation of the alongshore transport that would generate the persistent shoreline undulations. In one location, however, the ridge crest connects to the nearshore and leads to an offshore-directed transport that produces a difference in the shoreline shape. This qualitatively supports the hypothesized effect of cross-shore fluxes on coastal evolution. Alongshore flows in the nearshore during a representative storm are driven by wave breaking, vortex force, advection and pressure gradient, all of which are affected by the SFCR.

  11. Evolution of Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antero, Michelle C.; Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The ERP industry has undergone dramatic changes over the past decades due to changing market demands, thereby creating new challenges and opportunities, which have to be managed by ERP vendors. This paper inquires into the necessary evolution of business models in a technology-intensive industry (e...

  12. An equilibrium profile model for retreating marsh shorelines in southeast Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Carol A.; Allison, Mead A.

    2008-12-01

    Louisiana's coastal marshes are experiencing the highest wetland loss rates in the U.S., in part due to subsidence-driven relative sea-level rise. These marshes are also vulnerable to the erosive power of wave attack: 1) on the marsh edge adjacent to open-water bodies, and 2) after the marsh platform is submerged. Marsh shorelines in Barataria Bay, Breton Sound, and the active Balize delta of southeastern Louisiana were examined in areas where the subaerial marsh platform had disappeared since 1932. Vibracore transects of marsh and adjacent bay surface sediments (to ˜2 m depth) were analyzed using geotechnical, stratigraphic, and radiochemical (137-Cs and 210-Pb) methods, and the subaerial-to-subaqueous transition of the marsh was mapped for elevation using standard stadia rod transit and fathometer measurements. Results indicate that marsh edge erosion of the platform takes place subaqueously until water depths of ˜1.5 m are reached. This is observed even in interior pond regions, but the shoreface elevation profiles are a function of fetch: exposed open bay sites display greater incision (depth and rate) of the marsh platform than protected interior bay or pond sites. Core stratigraphy reveals that the outer part of the subaqueous platform switches from erosional to depositional as retreat proceeds, covering the incised marsh deposits unconformably with estuarine shelly muds. 137-Cs and excess 210-Pb activity indicates that these muds are deposited within a few decades of subaerial marsh loss. The consistency of the cross-shore profile results suggests that a single profile of equilibrium can approximate the morphology of eroding marsh edges in southeast Louisiana: platform stratigraphy and resistance to erosion have a limited effect on profile shape. This equilibrium profile and remote sensing images of shoreline change are used to estimate the sediment yield to adjacent estuarine areas by this process. On average, 1.5 m 3 of sediment are yielded per m

  13. Stochastic Models of Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezruchko, Boris P.; Smirnov, Dmitry A.

    To continue the discussion of randomness given in Sect. 2.2.1, we briefly touch on stochastic models of temporal evolution (random processes). They can be specified either via explicit definition of their statistical properties (probability density functions, correlation functions, etc., Sects. 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3) or via stochastic difference or differential equations. Some of the most widely known equations, their properties and applications are discussed in Sects. 4.4 and 4.5.

  14. Identification and visualisation of possible ancient ocean shoreline on Mars using submeter-resolution Digital Terrain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Świąder Andrzej

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Digital Terrain Models (DTMs produced from stereoscopic, submeter-resolution High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE imagery provide a solid basis for all morphometric analyses of the surface of Mars. In view of the fact that a more effective use of DTMs is hindered by complicated and time-consuming manual handling, the automated process provided by specialists of the Ames Intelligent Robotics Group (NASA, Ames Stereo Pipeline, constitutes a good alternative. Four DTMs, covering the global dichotomy boundary between the southern highlands and northern lowlands along the line of the presumable Arabia shoreline, were produced and analysed. One of them included forms that are likely to be indicative of an oceanic basin that extended across the lowland northern hemisphere of Mars in the geological past. The high resolution DTMs obtained were used in the process of landscape visualisation.

  15. An empirical conceptual gully evolution model for channelled sea cliffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyland, Julian; Darby, Stephen E.

    2008-12-01

    Incised coastal channels are a specific form of incised channel that are found in locations where stream channels flowing to cliffed coasts have the excess energy required to cut down through the cliff to reach the outlet water body. The southern coast of the Isle of Wight, southern England, comprises soft cliffs that vary in height between 15 and 100 m and which are retreating at rates ≤ 1.5 m a - 1 , due to a combination of wave erosion and landslides. In several locations, river channels have cut through the cliffs to create deeply (≤ 45 m) incised gullies, known locally as 'Chines'. The Chines are unusual in that their formation is associated with dynamic shoreline encroachment during a period of rising sea-level, whereas existing models of incised channel evolution emphasise the significance of base level lowering. This paper develops a conceptual model of Chine evolution by applying space for time substitution methods using empirical data gathered from Chine channel surveys and remotely sensed data. The model identifies a sequence of evolutionary stages, which are classified based on a suite of morphometric indices and associated processes. The extent to which individual Chines are in a state of growth or decay is estimated by determining the relative rates of shoreline retreat and knickpoint recession, the former via analysis of historical aerial images and the latter through the use of a stream power erosion model.

  16. Shoreline Erosion and Slope Failure Detection over Southwest Lakeshore Michigan using Temporal Radar and Digital Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sataer, G.; Sultan, M.; Yellich, J. A.; Becker, R.; Emil, M. K.; Palaseanu, M.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century, significant losses of residential, commercial and governmental property were reported along the shores of the Great Lakes region due to one or more of the following factors: high lake levels, wave actions, groundwater discharge. A collaborative effort (Western Michigan University, University of Toledo, Michigan Geological Survey [MGS], United States Geological Survey [USGS], National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) is underway to examine the temporal topographic variations along the shoreline and the adjacent bluff extending from the City of South Haven in the south to the City of Saugatuck in the north within the Allegan County. Our objectives include two main tasks: (1) identification of the timing of, and the areas, witnessing slope failure and shoreline erosion, and (2) investigating the factors causing the observed failures and erosion. This is being accomplished over the study area by: (1) detecting and measuring slope subsidence rates (velocities along line of site) and failures using radar interferometric persistent scatter (PS) techniques applied to ESA's European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, ERS-1 and -2 (spatial resolution: 25 m) that were acquired in 1995 to 2007, (2) extracting temporal high resolution (20 cm) digital elevation models (DEM) for the study area from temporal imagery acquired by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and applying change detection techniques to the extracted DEMs, (3) detecting change in elevation and slope profiles extracted from two LIDAR Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) DEMs (spatial resolution: 0.5m), acquired on 2008 and 2012, and (4) spatial and temporal correlation of the detected changes in elevation with relevant data sets (e.g., lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels) in search of causal effects.

  17. The source model and recurrence interval of Genroku-type Kanto earthquakes estimated from paleo-shoreline data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Toshinori; Higuchi, Harutaka; Miyauchi, Takahiro; Endo, Kaori; Tsumura, Noriko; Ito, Tanio; Noda, Akemi; Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro

    2016-02-01

    In the southern Kanto region of Japan, where the Philippine Sea plate is descending at the Sagami trough, two different types of large interplate earthquakes have occurred repeatedly. The 1923 (Taisho) and 1703 (Genroku) Kanto earthquakes characterize the first and second types, respectively. A reliable source model has been obtained for the 1923 event from seismological and geodetical data, but not for the 1703 event because we have only historical records and paleo-shoreline data about it. We developed an inversion method to estimate fault slip distribution of interplate repeating earthquakes from paleo-shoreline data on the idea of crustal deformation cycles associated with subduction-zone earthquakes. By applying the inversion method to the present heights of the Genroku and Holocene marine terraces developed along the coasts of the southern Boso and Miura peninsulas, we estimated the fault slip distribution of the 1703 Genroku earthquake as follows. The source region extends along the Sagami trough from the Miura peninsula to the offing of the southern Boso peninsula, which covers the southern two thirds of the source region of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The coseismic slip takes the maximum of 20 m at the southern tip of the Boso peninsula, and the moment magnitude (Mw) is calculated as 8.2. From the interseismic slip-deficit rates at the plate interface obtained by GPS data inversion, assuming that the total slip deficit is compensated by coseismic slip, we can roughly estimate the average recurrence interval as 350 years for large interplate events of any type and 1400 years for the Genroku-type events.

  18. Archaeological Site Vulnerability Modelling: The Influence of High Impact Storm Events on Models of Shoreline Erosion in the Western Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Rourke Michael J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the Inuvialuit archaeological record is situated along shorelines of the western Canadian Arctic. These coastal sites are at substantial risk of damage due to a number of geomorphological processes at work in the region. The identification of threatened heritage remains is critical in the Mackenzie Delta, where landscape changes are taking place at an increasingly rapid pace. This paper outlines some preliminary observations from a research program directed toward identifying vulnerable archaeological remains within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Coastal erosion rates have been calculated for over 280 km of the Kugmallit Bay shoreline, extending along the eastern extent of Richards Island and neighbouring areas of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Helicopter surveys conducted during the 2014 field season confirmed that areas exposed to heavy erosive forces in the past continue to erode at alarming rates. Some of the calculated rates, however, have proven far too conservative. An extreme period of erosion at Toker Point in the autumn of 2013 has yielded a prime example of how increasingly volatile weather patterns can influence shoreline erosion models. It has also provided a case with which to demonstrate the value of using more recent, shorter time-interval imagery in assessing impacts to cultural landscapes.

  19. A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: the South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Tiago M; Kokinou, Eleni; Zodiatis, George

    2014-09-15

    This study combines bathymetric, geomorphological, geological data and oil spill predictions to model the impact of oil spills in two accident scenarios from offshore Crete, Eastern Mediterranean. The aim is to present a new three-step method of use by emergency teams and local authorities in the assessment of shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills. The three-step method comprises: (1) real-time analyses of bathymetric, geomorphological, geological and oceanographic data; (2) oil dispersion simulations under known wind and sea current conditions; and (3) the compilation of final hazard maps based on information from (1) and (2) and on shoreline susceptibility data. The results in this paper show that zones of high to very-high susceptibility around the island of Crete are related to: (a) offshore bathymetric features, including the presence of offshore scarps and seamounts; (b) shoreline geology, and (c) the presence near the shore of sedimentary basins filled with unconsolidated deposits of high permeability. Oil spills, under particular weather and oceanographic conditions, may quickly spread and reach the shoreline 5-96 h after the initial accident. As a corollary of this work, we present the South Aegean region around Crete as a valid case-study for confined marine basins, narrow seaways, or interior seas around island groups. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  1. Numerical prediction of shoreline adjacent to breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mahadevan, R.; Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

    Existing mathematical models for prediction of shoreline changes in the vicinity of a breakwater were reviewed The analytical and numerical results obtained from these models have been compared Under the numerical approach, two different implicit...

  2. Sand spit and shoreline dynamics near Terekhol river mouth, Goa, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rajasekaran, C.; Jayakumar, S.; Gowthaman, R.; Jishad, M.; Yadhunath, E.M.; Pednekar, P.S.

    Evolution of shoreline and sand spit at the mouth of the Terekhol River, near Keri beach, located in the Indian state of Goa has been investigated From the analysis of the data collected, the shoreline oscillation (accretion & erosion) is seasonal...

  3. Dose-response modelling with two agents: application to the bioassay of oil and shoreline cleaning agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murado, Miguel A; Vázquez, José A; Rial, Diego; Beiras, Ricardo

    2011-01-30

    Single and joint effects of hydrocarbons and a shoreline cleaning agent (SCA) were studied by measuring the inhibition of the larval growth of sea urchin. Different dosage methods of hydrophobic compounds were compared. The results obtained in the evaluation of CytoSol toxicity revealed that the method of variable dilution of water accommodated fraction (WAF) led to the more conservative toxicological approach. Regarding to Libyan oil, the use of DMSO as carrier allowed us the evaluation of its potential toxicity in comparison with the limitations imposed to the use of WAF method. A reparametrised form of the Weibull equation was slightly modified to be useful for dose-response analysis. This was the basis for modelling single sigmoid responses, which were used to simulate biphasic profiles with addition of effects and to describe both the concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) hypotheses. In all cases, its descriptive ability was graphically and statistically satisfactory. The IA model was the best option to explain the combined experimental responses obtained. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Shoreline change due to coastal structures of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K. S.; Lee, T. S.; Kim, Y. I.

    2001-01-01

    Characteristics of shoreline change at the coastal area near power plant were analyzed. For a nuclear power plant located in the east coast of Korean peninsula, remote-sensing data, i.e.airborne images and satellite images are acquired and shoreline data were extracted. Recession and davance of shoreline due to coastal structures of powder plant and land reclamation was showed. 1-line numerical shoreline change model was established for simulating the response of shoreline to construction of coastal structures. The model uses curvilinear coordinates that follow the shoreline and is capable of handling the formation of tombolos as well as the growth of salients in the vicinity of coastal structures. The model predicted significant erosion of beach in case breakwaters were extended. Offshore breakwaters were suggested as a countermeasure to shoreline change

  5. Interactions of Estuarine Shoreline Infrastructure With Multiscale Sea Level Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruo-Qian; Herdman, Liv M.; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Hummel, Michelle; Stacey, Mark T.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short-term water-rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short-term and long-term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full-bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half-meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high-water-level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ˜1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low-frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1-D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events.

  6. TMDs: Evolution, modeling, precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Alesio Umberto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The factorization theorem for qT spectra in Drell-Yan processes, boson production and semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering allows for the determination of the non-perturbative parts of transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions. Here we discuss the fit of Drell-Yan and Z-production data using the transverse momentum dependent formalism and the resummation of the evolution kernel. We find a good theoretical stability of the results and a final χ2/points ≲ 1. We show how the fixing of the non-perturbative pieces of the evolution can be used to make predictions at present and future colliders.

  7. Cuspate Shoreline Morphology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McWilliams, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    Large beach cusps with wavelengths O(200m), sometimes termed mega-cusps, were measured along 18km of the Southern Monterey Bay coastline from October 2004 to April 2005 to investigate the cuspate shoreline response to rip current systems...

  8. Modelling the fate of marine debris along a complex shoreline: Lessons from the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchell, K.; Grech, A.; Schlaefer, J.; Andutta, F. P.; Lambrechts, J.; Wolanski, E.; Hamann, M.

    2015-12-01

    The accumulation of floating anthropogenic debris in marine and coastal areas has environmental, economic, aesthetic, and human health impacts. Until now, modelling the transport of such debris has largely been restricted to the large-scales of open seas. We used oceanographic modelling to identify potential sites of debris accumulation along a rugged coastline with headlands, islands, rocky coasts and beaches. Our study site was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area that has an emerging problem with debris accumulation. We found that the classical techniques of modelling the transport of floating debris models are only moderately successful due to a number of unknowns or assumptions, such as the value of the wind drift coefficient, the variability of the oceanic forcing and of the wind, the resuspension of some floating debris by waves, and the poorly known relative contribution of floating debris from urban rivers and commercial and recreational shipping. Nevertheless the model was successful in reproducing a number of observations such as the existence of hot spots of accumulation. The orientation of beaches to the prevailing wind direction affected the accumulation rate of debris. The wind drift coefficient and the exact timing of the release of the debris at sea affected little the movement of debris originating from rivers but it affected measurably that of debris originating from ships. It was thus possible to produce local hotspot maps for floating debris, especially those originating from rivers. Such modelling can be used to inform local management decisions, and it also identifies likely priority research areas to more reliably predict the trajectory and landing points of floating debris.

  9. Reactive modelling of 1,2-DCA and DOC near the shoreline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombani, N; Pantano, A; Mastrocicco, M; Petitta, M

    2014-11-15

    1,2-Dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) was found to be the most abundant compound among chlorinated hydrocarbons detected in a petrochemical plant in southern Italy. This site is located near the coastline, and it is set above an unconfined coastal aquifer, where seawater intrusion is present. The presence of organic and inorganic contaminants at this site has required the implementation of remediation strategies, consisting of pumping wells (hydraulic barrier) and a horizontal flow barrier. The purpose of this work was to assess the influence of salt water intrusion on the degradation rate of 1,2-DCA. This was done on a three-dimensional domain relative to a limited portion of a well characterized field site, accounting for density-dependent flow and reactive transport modelling of 1,2-DCA and Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC). The modelling procedure was performed employing SEAWAT-4.0 and PHT3D, to reproduce the complex three-dimensional flow and transport domain. In order to determine the fate of 1,2-DCA, detailed field investigations provided intensive depth profile information. Different, kinetically controlled degradation rates were simulated to explain the observed, selective degradation of pollutants in groundwater. Calibration of the model was accomplished by comparison with the two different sets of measurements obtained from the MLS devices and from pumping wells. With the calibrated model, it was possible to distinguish between dispersive non-reactive processes and bacterially mediated reactions. In the non-reactive model, 1,2-DCA sorption was simulated using linear sorption coefficient determined with field data and 1,2-DCA degradation was simulated using a first order decay coefficient using literature data as initial guess. Finally, on the reactive transport model, where a two-step approach with partial equilibrium approach was implemented, the effects of neglecting the cation exchange capacity, omitting density-dependent flow, and refining the vertical

  10. Investigating Nonlinear Shoreline Multiperiod Change from Orthophoto Map Information by Using a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tienfuan Kerh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme weather and overdevelopment may cause some coastal areas to exhibit erosion problems, which in turn may contribute to creating disasters of varying scale, particularly in regions comprising islands. This study used aerial survey information from three periods (1990, 2001, and 2010 and used graphical software to establish the spatial data of six beaches surrounding the island of Taiwan. An overlaying technique was then implemented to compare the sandy area of each beach in the aforementioned study periods. In addition, an artificial neural network model was developed based on available digitised coordinates for predicting coastline variation for 2015 and 2020. An onsite investigation was performed using a global positioning system for comparing the beaches. The results revealed that two beaches from this study may have experienced significant changes in total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method and the result of this study may provide a valuable reference in follow-up research and applications.

  11. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  12. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-12-01

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial sediments and

  13. Modelling microstructural evolution under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tikare, V.

    2015-01-01

    Microstructural evolution of materials under irradiation is characterised by some unique features that are not typically present in other application environments. While much understanding has been achieved by experimental studies, the ability to model this microstructural evolution for complex materials states and environmental conditions not only enhances understanding, it also enables prediction of materials behaviour under conditions that are difficult to duplicate experimentally. Furthermore, reliable models enable designing materials for improved engineering performance for their respective applications. Thus, development and application of mesoscale microstructural model are important for advancing nuclear materials technologies. In this chapter, the application of the Potts model to nuclear materials will be reviewed and demonstrated, as an example of microstructural evolution processes. (author)

  14. Shoreline changes in and around the Thubon River mouth, Central Vietnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mau, L.D.; Nayak, G.N.; SanilKumar, V.

    Application of GENESIS model (GENEralized model for Simulating Shoreline change) for studying the shoreline change in and around the Thubon River Mouth, Central Vietnam is presented in this paper The input parameters used are the near shore wave...

  15. Multidecadal shoreline changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2014-01-01

    Multidecadal shoreline changes along ca. 7000 km coastline around Denmark were computed for the time interval between 1862 AD and 2005 AD and were connected with a geomorphological coastal classification. The shoreline data set was based on shoreline positions from historical and modern topographic...... shoreline changes around Denmark, the mapping can contribute to enhanced adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to increased risks of erosion and flooding under a changing climate....

  16. CMS computing model evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandi, C; Bonacorsi, D; Colling, D; Fisk, I; Girone, M

    2014-01-01

    The CMS Computing Model was developed and documented in 2004. Since then the model has evolved to be more flexible and to take advantage of new techniques, but many of the original concepts remain and are in active use. In this presentation we will discuss the changes planned for the restart of the LHC program in 2015. We will discuss the changes planning in the use and definition of the computing tiers that were defined with the MONARC project. We will present how we intend to use new services and infrastructure to provide more efficient and transparent access to the data. We will discuss the computing plans to make better use of the computing capacity by scheduling more of the processor nodes, making better use of the disk storage, and more intelligent use of the networking.

  17. A simple model for binary star evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whyte, C.A.; Eggleton, P.P.

    1985-01-01

    A simple model for calculating the evolution of binary stars is presented. Detailed stellar evolution calculations of stars undergoing mass and energy transfer at various rates are reported and used to identify the dominant physical processes which determine the type of evolution. These detailed calculations are used to calibrate the simple model and a comparison of calculations using the detailed stellar evolution equations and the simple model is made. Results of the evolution of a few binary systems are reported and compared with previously published calculations using normal stellar evolution programs. (author)

  18. On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passeri, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal environments with loss of land, inundation of coastal wetlands, and increased flooding during extreme storm events. Research has shown that SLR is a major factor in the long-term, gradual retreat of shorelines (Fitzgerald et al., 2008). Along sandy shorelines, retreat has a more dynamic effect than just inundation due to rising water levels, including the physical process of erosion in which sand is removed from the shoreface and deposited offshore. This has the potential to affect ecological habitats as well as coastal communities. Although SLR induces seaward retreat of shorelines, many shorelines especially within the vicinity of inlets may experience accretion due to sediment trapping or beach replenishment (Aubrey and Giese, 1993, Browder and R.G., 1999). This study examines the influence of including projected shoreline changes under future sea states into hydrodynamic modeling within the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). The NGOM coastline is an economically and ecologically significant area, comprised of various bays, barrier islands and mainland beaches. Projected shorelines and nearshore morphology for the year 2050 are derived from the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) shoreline change rates (Thieler and Hammer-Klose, 1999) and used in conjunction with the 'Bruun Rule effect'(Bruun, 1962). A large scale hydrodynamic model forced by astronomic tides and hurricane winds and pressures is used to simulate present conditions, a high projection of the 2050 sea state (18 in of SLR in accordance with Parris et al. (2012)) and the 2050 high sea state with 2050 shorelines to test the sensitivity of the system to the projected shoreline changes. Results show that shoreline changes coupled with sea level rise increases tidal inundation along shorelines, amplifies overtopping of barrier islands during storm surge events, and heightens inland storm surge inundation. It is critical to include estimates of shoreline and barrier

  19. Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

  20. Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

  1. Overview of shoreline cleaning agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Chemical cleaning agents may be used to promote release of stranded oil from shorelines for reasons including biological sensitivity of indigenous fauna and flora to the oil, amenity considerations of the shoreline, or concern about refloating of the oil and subsequent stranding on adjacent shorelines. While use of chemical cleaning agents may be appropriate under proper toxic responses in circumstances, certain limitations should be recognized. The potential for toxic responses in indigenous fauna and flora to the cleaning agents must be considered. Enhanced penetration of oil into permeable shorelines following treatment with chemical cleaning agents also is not desirable. However, if conditions related to toxicity and substrate permeability are determined to be acceptable, the use of chemical cleaning agents for treatment of stranded oil can be considered. Chemical agents for cleaning oiled shorelines can be grouped into three categories: (1) non-surfactant-based solvents, (2) chemical dispersants, and (3) formulations especially designed to release stranded oil from shoreline substrates (i.e., shoreline-cleaning-agents). Depending on the specific circumstances present on an oiled shoreline, it is generally desirable that chemical agents used for cleaning will release oil from shoreline substrate(s) to surface waters. Recovery of the oil can then be accomplished by mechanical procedures such as booming and skimming operations

  2. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    The influence of offshore wind farms on the wave conditions and impact on shoreline development is studied in a generic set-up of a coast and a shoreline. The objective was to estimate the impact of a typical sized offshore wind farm on a shoreline in a high wave energetic environment. Especially...... the shoreline’s sensitivity to the distance from the OWF to the shoreline was studied. The effect of the reduced wind speed inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm was incorporated in a parameterized way in a spectral wind wave model. The shoreline impact was studied with a one-line model....

  3. Modeling somatic evolution in tumorigenesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina L Spencer

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis in humans is thought to be a multistep process where certain mutations confer a selective advantage, allowing lineages derived from the mutated cell to outcompete other cells. Although molecular cell biology has substantially advanced cancer research, our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics that govern tumorigenesis is limited. This paper analyzes the computational implications of cancer progression presented by Hanahan and Weinberg in The Hallmarks of Cancer. We model the complexities of tumor progression as a small set of underlying rules that govern the transformation of normal cells to tumor cells. The rules are implemented in a stochastic multistep model. The model predicts that (i early-onset cancers proceed through a different sequence of mutation acquisition than late-onset cancers; (ii tumor heterogeneity varies with acquisition of genetic instability, mutation pathway, and selective pressures during tumorigenesis; (iii there exists an optimal initial telomere length which lowers cancer incidence and raises time of cancer onset; and (iv the ability to initiate angiogenesis is an important stage-setting mutation, which is often exploited by other cells. The model offers insight into how the sequence of acquired mutations affects the timing and cellular makeup of the resulting tumor and how the cellular-level population dynamics drive neoplastic evolution.

  4. A model of lunar evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strangway, D.W.; Sharpe, H.N.

    1975-01-01

    There have been many models describing the evolution of the sister planet. As information from the intensive exploration by the Apollo program has accumulated, more constraints on these models have emerged. A hypothesis in which there is a present day asthenosphere, a heat flow between 24 and 32 ergs cm -2 s -1 and a crust which developed early in the Moon's history by melting of the outer 100 to 200 km is specifically considered. A constraint which keeps the deep interior below the Curie point of iron for the first 1 to 1.5 b.y. so that it is able to carry the memory of an early field which magnetized the cold interior is also introduced. The magnetized mare basalts and breccias cooled in this field from above the Curie point of iron (approximately 800 0 C) and acquired a thermoremanent magnetization. While fully recognizing that some of these constraints are subject to other interpretations, it is nevertheless instructive to consider the thermal history that follows from such a model. It is a consequence of this model that solid body convection took place late in lunar history. This may well have contributed to the lunar center of figure and center of mass offset, to the low order terms in its gravity field and to, its disequilibrium moment of inertia differences. (Auth.)

  5. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  6. Modeling the cultural evolution of language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steels, Luc

    2011-12-01

    The paper surveys recent research on language evolution, focusing in particular on models of cultural evolution and how they are being developed and tested using agent-based computational simulations and robotic experiments. The key challenges for evolutionary theories of language are outlined and some example results are discussed, highlighting models explaining how linguistic conventions get shared, how conceptual frameworks get coordinated through language, and how hierarchical structure could emerge. The main conclusion of the paper is that cultural evolution is a much more powerful process that usually assumed, implying that less innate structures or biases are required and consequently that human language evolution has to rely less on genetic evolution.

  7. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J

    2018-03-29

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines' deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines' deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  8. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  9. County Boundaries with Shorelines (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — County boundaries with shorelines cut in (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an extract of selected geographic and...

  10. NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products from the Remote Sensing Division are primarily for application to the nautical charts produced by NOAA's Office of Coast...

  11. Biodiversity and models of evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Podvalny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper discusses the evolutionary impact of biodiversity, the backbone of noosphere, which status has been fixed by a UN convention. The examples and role of such diversity are considered the various levels of life arrangement. On the level of standalone organisms, the diversity in question manifests itself in the differentiation and separation of the key physiologic functions which significantly broaden the eco-niche for the species with the consummate type of such separation. However, the organismic level of biodiversity does not work for building any developmental models since the starting point of genetic inheritance and variability processes emerges on the minimum structural unit of the living world only, i.e. the population. It is noted that the sufficient gene pool for species development may accumulate in fairly large populations only, where the general rate of mutation does not yield to the rate of ambient variations. The paper shows that the known formal models of species development based on the Fisher theorem about the impact of genodispersion on species adjustment are not in keeping with the actual existence of the species due to the conventionally finite and steady number of genotypes within a population. On the ecosystem level of life arrangement, the key role pertains to the taxonomic diversity supporting the continuous food chain in the system against any adverse developmental conditions of certain taxons. Also, the progressive evolution of an ecosystem is largely stabilized by its multilayer hierarchic structure and the closed circle of matter and energy. The developmental system models based on the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the interaction of the open-loop ecosystem elements only insufficiently represent the position of biodiversity in the evolutionary processes. The paper lays down the requirements to such models which take into account the mass balance within a system; its trophic structure; the

  12. Modeling plan-form deltaic response to changes in fluvial sediment supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nienhuis, J.H.; Ashton, A.D.; Roos, Pieter C.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Giosan, L.; Kranenburg, W.M.; Horstman, E.M.; Wijnberg, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the effects of changes in fluvial sediment supply on the plan-form shape of wave-dominated deltas. We apply a one-line numerical shoreline model to calculate shoreline evolution after (I) elimination and (II) time-periodic variation of fluvial input. Model results suggest four

  13. A post-Calumet shoreline along southern Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, D.K.; Thompson, T.A.; Booth, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    The southern shore of Lake Michigan is the type area for many of ancestral Lake Michigan's late Pleistocene lake phases, but coastal deposits and features of the Algonquin phase of northern Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are not recognized in the area. Isostatic rebound models suggest that Algonquin phase deposits should be 100 m or more below modern lake level. A relict shoreline, however, exists along the lakeward margin of the Calumet Beach that was erosional west of Deep River and depositional east of the river. For this post-Calumet shoreline, the elevation of basal foreshore deposits east of Deep River and the base of the scarp west of Deep River indicate a slightly westward dipping water plane that is centered at ???184 m above mean sea level. Basal foreshore elevations also indicate that lake level fell ???2 m during the development of the shoreline. The pooled mean of radiocarbon dates from the surface of the peat below post-Calumet shoreline foreshore deposits indicate that the lake transgressed over the peat at 10,560 ?? 70 years B.P. Pollen assemblages from the peat are consistent with this age. The elevation and age of the post-Calumet shoreline are similar to the Main Algonquin phase of Lake Huron. Recent isostatic rebound models do not adequately address a high-elevation Algonquin-age shoreline along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, but the Goldthwait (1908) hinge-line model does. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  14. NOAA Composite Shoreline - Vectorized Shoreline Derived From NOAA-NOS Coastal Survey Maps and Aerial Photographs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Composite Shoreline is primarily intended for high-resolution cartographic representation of the shoreline. It is a high-resolution vector shoreline based...

  15. Fractal properties of shoreline changes on a storm-exposed island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xiaojing; Yu, Peng; Chen, Shenliang

    2017-08-15

    Extreme storm events and their consequent shoreline changes are of great importance for understanding coastal evolution and assessing storm hazards. This work investigates the fractal properties of the spatial distributions of shoreline changes caused by storms. Wavelet analysis and upper-truncated power law (UTPL) fitting are used to study the power spectra of shoreline changes and to evaluate the upper limits of the cross-shore erosion and accretion. During a period affected by storms, the alongshore shoreline change patterns are strong on the 15 km scale but are weak with lower spectral power on the 20 km scale. The areas adjacent to the eroded shoreline are usually accrete, and the cross-shore extent of erosion is larger than that of accretion when the coast is affected by storms. The fractal properties of shoreline changes due to storms are found to be temporally continuous: the effects of later storms build on the preceding shoreline conditions, including both the effects of previous storms and the subsequent shoreline recoveries. This work provides a new perspective on the various scales of the spatial variations of the morphodynamics of storm-affected shorelines.

  16. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... variability of directional distributions of wave energy fluxes furthermore outlined potential sediment sources and sinks for the evolution of the barrier island system and for the evolution of the recurved spit....

  17. Modelling the Holocene Evolution of a Drift-dominated Alluvial-fan Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, M.; Dickson, M.; Coco, G.

    2007-12-01

    A numerical model is being developed to simulate shore evolution along an alluvial fan coast over the Holocene. The alluvial fan of the Waitaki River, on the east coast of New Zealand's South Island, was built by Pleistocene glacial advances but has been eroded back by waves over recent millennia. The retreat has left a cliffed shore fronted by a narrow beach of mixed sand and gravel and a gently sloping seabed with only a thin, patchy sand cover over the Pleistocene substrate. The study motivation is to examine the sensitivity of shoreline movements in this setting to wave-climate change, sea-level rise, and river sediment supplies. The modelling couples a profile evolution model with a shoreline model. The profile evolution model is operational and is driven by a series of coupled process models which include seabed scour, berm construction during normal waves, berm overtopping and subsequent beach-stripping and scour of the exposed substrate and cliff-toe notching by storm waves, gravity failure of the cliffs and talus construction, and beach sediment abrasion. Negative feedback regulates the rate of cliff erosion through the protection provided by the new material added into the beach from the eroding cliffs and substrate. The model is forced by two wave conditions: a normal swell and a randomly-varying storm wave. These operate for proportions of the yearly time step. The model was begun on a sloping fan surface inundated by the last stages of post-glacial sea-level rise (8000 yr BP). The initial response is for rapid growth of a gravel beach ridge fed by wave-excavation of the nearshore. As the nearshore profile nears equilibrium with the wave climate, the onshore feed wanes below the abrasion rate and the beach ridge loses volume. As sea level rises the beach ridge moves upward and landward, but its capacity to do so is limited by the rate of sediment feed from the nearshore. When the beach size reduces to a threshold at which storm waves periodically

  18. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  19. The Cosmic Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahnle, Kevin J.; Catling, D. C.

    2013-01-01

    in 2004 when there were just two transiting exoplanets to consider. The trend was well-defined by late 2007. Figure 1 shows how matters stood in Dec 2012 with approx.240 exoplanets. The figure shows that the boundary between planets with and without active volatiles - the cosmic shoreline, as it were - is both well-defined and follows a power law.

  20. Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  1. Drivers of Coastal Shoreline Change: Case Study of Hon Dat Coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  2. A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

    2013-09-01

    Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

  3. On the evolution of conceptual modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Kaschek, Roland H.

    2008-01-01

    Since the 1980s the need increased for overcoming idiosyncrasies of approaches to modeling in the various sub-disciplines of computing. The theoretical model of evolution is used in this paper for analyzing how computing and conceptual modeling have changed. It is concluded that computing has changed into a social phenomenon with a technical core and that therefore relying on (formal) model semantics as the sole tool for the discussion of conceptual modeling is no more adequate. A number of l...

  4. Experimental "evolutional machines": mathematical and experimental modeling of biological evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brilkov, A. V.; Loginov, I. A.; Morozova, E. V.; Shuvaev, A. N.; Pechurkin, N. S.

    Experimentalists possess model systems of two major types for study of evolution continuous cultivation in the chemostat and long-term development in closed laboratory microecosystems with several trophic structure If evolutionary changes or transfer from one steady state to another in the result of changing qualitative properties of the system take place in such systems the main characteristics of these evolution steps can be measured By now this has not been realized from the point of view of methodology though a lot of data on the work of both types of evolutionary machines has been collected In our experiments with long-term continuous cultivation we used the bacterial strains containing in plasmids the cloned genes of bioluminescence and green fluorescent protein which expression level can be easily changed and controlled In spite of the apparent kinetic diversity of evolutionary transfers in two types of systems the general mechanisms characterizing the increase of used energy flow by populations of primer producent can be revealed at their study According to the energy approach at spontaneous transfer from one steady state to another e g in the process of microevolution competition or selection heat dissipation characterizing the rate of entropy growth should increase rather then decrease or maintain steady as usually believed The results of our observations of experimental evolution require further development of thermodynamic theory of open and closed biological systems and further study of general mechanisms of biological

  5. A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly. Elder

    2006-01-01

    SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

  6. Modeling Concept Evolution: A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzolo, Flavio; Velegrakis, Yannis; Mylopoulos, John; Bykau, Siarhei

    The world is changing, and so must the data that describes its history. Not surprisingly, considerable research effort has been spent in Databases along this direction, covering topics such as temporal models and schema evolution. A topic that has not received much attention, however, is that of concept evolution. For example, Germany (instance-level concept) has evolved several times in the last century as it went through different governance structures, then split into two national entities that eventually joined again. Likewise, a caterpillar is transformed into a butterfly, while a mother becomes two (maternally-related) entities. As well, the concept of Whale (a class-level concept) changed over the past two centuries thanks to scientific discoveries that led to a better understanding of what the concept entails. In this work, we present a formal framework for modeling, querying and managing such evolution. In particular, we describe how to model the evolution of a concept, and how this modeling can be used to answer historical queries of the form "How has concept X evolved over period Y". Our proposal extends an RDF-like model with temporal features and evolution operators. Then we provide a query language that exploits these extensions and supports historical queries.

  7. Quantifying the stratigraphic completeness of delta shoreline trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahon, Robert C.; Shaw, John B.; Barnhart, Katherine R.; Hobley, Daniel E. J.; McElroy, Brandon

    2015-05-01

    Understanding the incomplete nature of the stratigraphic record is fundamental for interpreting stratigraphic sequences. Methods for quantifying stratigraphic completeness for one-dimensional stratigraphic columns, defined as the proportion of time intervals of some length that contain stratigraphy, are commonplace; however, quantitative assessments of completeness in higher dimensions are lacking. Here we present a metric for defining stratigraphic completeness of two-dimensional shoreline trajectories using topset-foreset rollover positions in dip-parallel sections and describe the preservation potential of a shoreline trajectory derived from the geometry of the delta surface profile and the kinematics of the geomorphic shoreline trajectory. Two end-member forward models are required to fully constrain the preservation potential of the shoreline dependent on whether or not a topset is eroded during base level fall. A laboratory fan-delta was constructed under nonsteady boundary conditions, and one-dimensional stratigraphic column and two-dimensional shoreline completeness curves were calculated. Results are consistent with the hypothesis derived from conservation of sediment mass that completeness over all timescales should increase given increasing dimensions of analysis. Stratigraphic trajectories and completeness curves determined from forward models using experimental geomorphic trajectories compare well to values from transects when subsampled to the equivalent stratigraphic resolution as observed in the actual preserved sequence. The concept of stratigraphic completeness applied to two-dimensional trajectory analysis and the end-member forward models presented here provide novel tools for a conceptual understanding of the nature of stratigraphic preservation at basin scales.

  8. Developing alternative shoreline armoring strategies: the living shoreline approach in North Carolina

    OpenAIRE

    Currin, C.A.; Chappell, W.S.; Deaton, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the scientific data on the ecosystem services provided by shoreline habitats, the evidence for adverse impacts from bulkheading on those habitats and services, and describes alternative approaches to shoreline stabilization, which minimize adverse impacts to the shoreline ecosystem. Alternative shoreline stabilization structures that incorporate natural habitats, also known as living shorelines, have been popularized by environmental groups and state regulatory agencies in ...

  9. QSO evolution in the interaction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Robertis, M.

    1985-01-01

    QSO evolution is investigated according to the interaction hypothesis described most recently by Stockton (1982), in which activity results from an interaction between two galaxies resulting in the transfer of gas onto a supermassive black hole (SBH) at the center of at least one participant. Explicit models presented here for interactions in cluster environments show that a peak QSO population can be formed in this way at zroughly-equal2--3, with little activity prior to this epoch. Calculated space densities match those inferred from observations for this epoch. Substantial density evolution is expected in such models, since, after virialization, conditions in the cores of rich clusters lead to the depletion of gas-rich systems through ram-pressure stripping. Density evolution parameters of 6--12 are easily accounted for. At smaller redshifts, however, QSOs should be found primarily in poor clusters or groups. Probability estimates provided by this model are consistent with local estimates for the observed number of QSOs per interaction. Significant luminosity-dependent evolution might also be expected in these models. It is suggested that the mean SBH mass increases with lookback time, leading to a statistical brightening with redshift. Undoubtedly, both forms of evolution contribute to the overall QSO luminosity function

  10. Shoreline dynamics of the active Yellow River delta since the implementation of Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme: A remote-sensing and statistics-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yaoshen; Chen, Shenliang; Zhao, Bo; Pan, Shunqi; Jiang, Chao; Ji, Hongyu

    2018-01-01

    The Active Yellow River (Huanghe) Delta (AYRD) is a complex landform in which rapid deposition takes place due to its geologic formation and evolution. Continuous monitoring of shoreline dynamics at high-temporal frequency is crucial for understanding the processes and the driving factors behind this rapidly changing coast. Great efforts have been devoted to map the changing shoreline of the Yellow River delta and explain such changes through remote sensing data. However, the temporal frequency of shoreline in the obtained datasets are generally not fine enough to reflect the detailed or subtly variable processes of shoreline retreat and advance. To overcome these limitations, we continuously monitored the dynamics of this shoreline using time series of Landsat data based on tidal-level calibration model and orthogonal-transect method. The Abrupt Change Value (ACV) results indicated that the retreat-advance patterns had a significant impact regardless of season or year. The Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) plays a dominant role in delivering river sediment discharge to the sea and has an impact on the annual average maximum ACV, especially at the mouth of the river. The positive relationship among the average ACV, runoff and sediment load are relatively obvious; however, we found that the Relative Exposure Index (REI) that measures wave energy was able to explain only approximately 20% of the variation in the data. Based on the abrupt change at the shoreline of the AYRD, river flow and time, we developed a binary regression model to calculate the critical sediment load and water discharge for maintaining the equilibrium of the active delta from 2002 to 2015. These values were approximately 0.48 × 108 t/yr and 144.37 × 108 m3/yr. If the current water and sediment proportions released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during the WSRS remain stable, the erosion-accretion patterns of the active delta will shift from rapid accretion to a dynamic balance.

  11. Shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution (SAGE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartczak, P.; Dudziński, G.

    2018-02-01

    In this work, we present SAGE (shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution), an asteroid modelling algorithm based solely on photometric lightcurve data. It produces non-convex shapes, orientations of the rotation axes and rotational periods of asteroids. The main concept behind a genetic evolution algorithm is to produce random populations of shapes and spin-axis orientations by mutating a seed shape and iterating the process until it converges to a stable global minimum. We tested SAGE on five artificial shapes. We also modelled asteroids 433 Eros and 9 Metis, since ground truth observations for them exist, allowing us to validate the models. We compared the derived shape of Eros with the NEAR Shoemaker model and that of Metis with adaptive optics and stellar occultation observations since other models from various inversion methods were available for Metis.

  12. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I.; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J.

    2018-03-01

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  13. The thermal evolution of universe: standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nascimento, L.C.S. do.

    1975-08-01

    A description of the dynamical evolution of the Universe following a model based on the theory of General Relativity is made. The model admits the Cosmological principle,the principle of Equivalence and the Robertson-Walker metric (of which an original derivation is presented). In this model, the universe is considered as a perfect fluid, ideal and symmetric relatively to the number of particles and antiparticles. The thermodynamic relations deriving from these hypothesis are derived, and from them the several eras of the thermal evolution of the universe are established. Finally, the problems arising from certain specific predictions of the model are studied, and the predictions of the abundances of the elements according to nucleosynthesis and the actual behavior of the universe are analysed in detail. (author) [pt

  14. The role of computation in modeling evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, E C

    2001-01-01

    Artificial life uses computers and formal systems to model and explore the dynamics of evolution. A fundamental question for A-Life concerns the role of computation in these models, and how we are to interpret computer implementations that do not have actual contact with physical systems. In this paper I will discuss how models are seen to explain and predict in philosophy of science and how these ideas apply to A-Life. I will also explore how the notion of an epistemic cut, as defined by H. Pattee, can be realized in a computational model with an artificial physical world.

  15. Modeling of Microstructure Evolution During Alloy Solidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mingfang; Pan, Shiyan; Sun, Dongke

    In recent years, considerable advances have been achieved in the numerical modeling of microstructure evolution during solidification. This paper presents the models based on the cellular automaton (CA) technique and lattice Boltzmann method (LBM), which can reproduce a wide variety of solidification microstructure features observed experimentally with an acceptable computational efficiency. The capabilities of the models are addressed by presenting representative examples encompassing a broad variety of issues, such as the evolution of dendritic structure and microsegregation in two and three dimensions, dendritic growth in the presence of convection, divorced eutectic solidification of spheroidal graphite irons, and gas porosity formation. The simulations offer insights into the underlying physics of microstructure formation during alloy solidification.

  16. Uncertainties in shoreline position analysis: the role of run-up and tide in a gentle slope beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manno, Giorgio; Lo Re, Carlo; Ciraolo, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    In recent decades in the Mediterranean Sea, high anthropic pressure from increasing economic and touristic development has affected several coastal areas. Today the erosion phenomena threaten human activities and existing structures, and interdisciplinary studies are needed to better understand actual coastal dynamics. Beach evolution analysis can be conducted using GIS methodologies, such as the well-known Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), in which error assessment based on shoreline positioning plays a significant role. In this study, a new approach is proposed to estimate the positioning errors due to tide and wave run-up influence. To improve the assessment of the wave run-up uncertainty, a spectral numerical model was used to propagate waves from deep to intermediate water and a Boussinesq-type model for intermediate water up to the swash zone. Tide effects on the uncertainty of shoreline position were evaluated using data collected by a nearby tide gauge. The proposed methodology was applied to an unprotected, dissipative Sicilian beach far from harbors and subjected to intense human activities over the last 20 years. The results show wave run-up and tide errors ranging from 0.12 to 4.5 m and from 1.20 to 1.39 m, respectively.

  17. Modelling landscape evolution at the flume scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheraghi, Mohsen; Rinaldo, Andrea; Sander, Graham C.; Barry, D. Andrew

    2017-04-01

    The ability of a large-scale Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) to simulate the soil surface morphological evolution as observed in a laboratory flume (1-m × 2-m surface area) was investigated. The soil surface was initially smooth, and was subjected to heterogeneous rainfall in an experiment designed to avoid rill formation. Low-cohesive fine sand was placed in the flume while the slope and relief height were 5 % and 20 cm, respectively. Non-uniform rainfall with an average intensity of 85 mm h-1 and a standard deviation of 26 % was applied to the sediment surface for 16 h. We hypothesized that the complex overland water flow can be represented by a drainage discharge network, which was calculated via the micro-morphology and the rainfall distribution. Measurements included high resolution Digital Elevation Models that were captured at intervals during the experiment. The calibrated LEM captured the migration of the main flow path from the low precipitation area into the high precipitation area. Furthermore, both model and experiment showed a steep transition zone in soil elevation that moved upstream during the experiment. We conclude that the LEM is applicable under non-uniform rainfall and in the absence of surface incisions, thereby extending its applicability beyond that shown in previous applications. Keywords: Numerical simulation, Flume experiment, Particle Swarm Optimization, Sediment transport, River network evolution model.

  18. Model-Driven Software Evolution : A Research Agenda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Deursen, A.; Visser, E.; Warmer, J.

    2007-01-01

    Software systems need to evolve, and systems built using model-driven approaches are no exception. What complicates model-driven engineering is that it requires multiple dimensions of evolution. In regular evolution, the modeling language is used to make the changes. In meta-model evolution, changes

  19. Stochastic resonance in biological nonlinear evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkel, Jörn; Hilbert, Stefan; Schimansky-Geier, Lutz; Hänggi, Peter

    2004-05-01

    We investigate stochastic resonance in the nonlinear, one-dimensional Fisher-Eigen model (FEM), which represents an archetypal model for biological evolution based on a global coupling scheme. In doing so we consider different periodically driven fitness functions which govern the evolution of a biological phenotype population. For the case of a simple harmonic fitness function we are able to derive the exact analytic solution for the asymptotic probability density. A distinct feature of this solution is a phase lag between the driving signal and the linear response of the system. Furthermore, for more complex systems a general perturbation theory (linear response approximation) is put forward. Using the latter approach, we investigate stochastic resonance in terms of the spectral amplification measure for a quadratic, a quartic single-peaked, and for a bistable fitness function. Our analytical results are also compared with those of detailed numerical simulations. Our findings vindicate that stochastic resonance does occur in these nonlinear, globally coupled biological systems.

  20. Modelling sediment clasts transport during landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretier, Sébastien; Martinod, Pierre; Reich, Martin; Godderis, Yves

    2016-03-01

    Over thousands to millions of years, the landscape evolution is predicted by models based on fluxes of eroded, transported and deposited material. The laws describing these fluxes, corresponding to averages over many years, are difficult to prove with the available data. On the other hand, sediment dynamics are often tackled by studying the distribution of certain grain properties in the field (e.g. heavy metals, detrital zircons, 10Be in gravel, magnetic tracers). There is a gap between landscape evolution models based on fluxes and these field data on individual clasts, which prevent the latter from being used to calibrate the former. Here we propose an algorithm coupling the landscape evolution with mobile clasts. Our landscape evolution model predicts local erosion, deposition and transfer fluxes resulting from hillslope and river processes. Clasts of any size are initially spread in the basement and are detached, moved and deposited according to probabilities using these fluxes. Several river and hillslope laws are studied. Although the resulting mean transport rate of the clasts does not depend on the time step or the model cell size, our approach is limited by the fact that their scattering rate is cell-size-dependent. Nevertheless, both their mean transport rate and the shape of the scattering-time curves fit the predictions. Different erosion-transport laws generate different clast movements. These differences show that studying the tracers in the field may provide a way to establish these laws on the hillslopes and in the rivers. Possible applications include the interpretation of cosmogenic nuclides in individual gravel deposits, provenance analyses, placers, sediment coarsening or fining, the relationship between magnetic tracers in rivers and the river planform, and the tracing of weathered sediment.

  1. Periodic Shoreline Morphology, Fire Island, New York

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gravens, Mark B

    1999-01-01

    The presence of shoreline undulations along the Atlantic coast of Fire Island, NY requires careful consideration in developing erosion control and hurricane protection plans and design alternatives...

  2. Eroding Kenyan Shorelines: the Need for Geological Input Into Shoreline Management, Decisions and Strategy.

    OpenAIRE

    Odada, E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines the consequences of responding to rising sea level by stabilization (halting of shoreline retreat by engineering means). Totally new ideas and approaches to shoreline management that incorporate the very significant advances in geological understanding of shoreline processes are also explored. Most of stabilization along the Kenya shores has been done and is being carried out without consideration or understanding of fundamental principles of shoreline processes. Failure t...

  3. Integrated Shoreline Extraction Approach with Use of Rasat MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, N.; Oy, S.; Erdem, F.; Şeker, D. Z.; Bayram, B.

    2017-09-01

    Shorelines are complex ecosystems and highly important socio-economic environments. They may change rapidly due to both natural and human-induced effects. Determination of movements along the shoreline and monitoring of the changes are essential for coastline management, modeling of sediment transportation and decision support systems. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to obtain rapid, up-to-date and reliable information for monitoring of shoreline. In this study, approximately 120 km of Antalya-Kemer shoreline which is under the threat of erosion, deposition, increasing of inhabitants and urbanization and touristic hotels, has been selected as the study area. In the study, RASAT pansharpened and SENTINEL-1A SAR images have been used to implement proposed shoreline extraction methods. The main motivation of this study is to combine the land/water body segmentation results of both RASAT MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR images to improve the quality of the results. The initial land/water body segmentation has been obtained using RASAT image by means of Random Forest classification method. This result has been used as training data set to define fuzzy parameters for shoreline extraction from SENTINEL-1A SAR image. Obtained results have been compared with the manually digitized shoreline. The accuracy assessment has been performed by calculating perpendicular distances between reference data and extracted shoreline by proposed method. As a result, the mean difference has been calculated around 1 pixel.

  4. The Delineation of Paleo-Shorelines in the Lake Manyara Basin Using TerraSAR-X Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Bachofer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to describe the delineation of paleo-shorelines using high resolution microwave images and digital image processing tools, and with that to contribute to the understanding of the complex landscape evolution of the Lake Manyara Basin. The surroundings of Lake Manyara are the focus of several paleo-archeological investigations, since the location is close to Olduvai Gorge, where paleo-anthropological findings can be traced back to homo habilis. In the catchment of Lake Manyara two hominin-bearing sites (0.78 to 0.63 Ma, lots of vertebrate fossils and hand axes from different periods were found. Understanding the development and extent of the lake is crucial for understanding the regional paleo-environment of the Quaternary. Morphological structures of shorelines and terraces east of Lake Manyara were identified from TerraSAR-X StripMap images. By applying a Canny edge detector, linear features were extracted and revised for different image acquisitions using a contextual approach. Those features match literature and field references. A digital elevation model of the region was used to map the most distinct paleo-shorelines according to their elevation.

  5. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  6. Cancer Evolution: Mathematical Models and Computational Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Schwarz, Roland F.; Gerstung, Moritz; Markowetz, Florian

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is a somatic evolutionary process characterized by the accumulation of mutations, which contribute to tumor growth, clinical progression, immune escape, and drug resistance development. Evolutionary theory can be used to analyze the dynamics of tumor cell populations and to make inference about the evolutionary history of a tumor from molecular data. We review recent approaches to modeling the evolution of cancer, including population dynamics models of tumor initiation and progression, phylogenetic methods to model the evolutionary relationship between tumor subclones, and probabilistic graphical models to describe dependencies among mutations. Evolutionary modeling helps to understand how tumors arise and will also play an increasingly important prognostic role in predicting disease progression and the outcome of medical interventions, such as targeted therapy. PMID:25293804

  7. Optimal evolution models for quantum tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czerwiński, Artur

    2016-01-01

    The research presented in this article concerns the stroboscopic approach to quantum tomography, which is an area of science where quantum physics and linear algebra overlap. In this article we introduce the algebraic structure of the parametric-dependent quantum channels for 2-level and 3-level systems such that the generator of evolution corresponding with the Kraus operators has no degenerate eigenvalues. In such cases the index of cyclicity of the generator is equal to 1, which physically means that there exists one observable the measurement of which performed a sufficient number of times at distinct instants provides enough data to reconstruct the initial density matrix and, consequently, the trajectory of the state. The necessary conditions for the parameters and relations between them are introduced. The results presented in this paper seem to have considerable potential applications in experiments due to the fact that one can perform quantum tomography by conducting only one kind of measurement. Therefore, the analyzed evolution models can be considered optimal in the context of quantum tomography. Finally, we introduce some remarks concerning optimal evolution models in the case of n-dimensional Hilbert space. (paper)

  8. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  9. Shoreline response to detached breakwaters in prototype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khuong, T.C.

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of shoreline changes behind detached breakwaters is, in regard to the adjustment to the environmental impact, still a challenge for designers and coastal managers. This research is expected to fill the gaps in the estimation of shoreline changes by developing new and

  10. Shoreline development and degradation of coastal fish reproduction habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundblad, Göran; Bergström, Ulf

    2014-12-01

    Coastal development has severely affected habitats and biodiversity during the last century, but quantitative estimates of the impacts are usually lacking. We utilize predictive habitat modeling and mapping of human pressures to estimate the cumulative long-term effects of coastal development in relation to fish habitats. Based on aerial photographs since the 1960s, shoreline development rates were estimated in the Stockholm archipelago in the Baltic Sea. By combining shoreline development rates with spatial predictions of fish reproduction habitats, we estimated annual habitat degradation rates for three of the most common coastal fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The results showed that shoreline constructions were concentrated to the reproduction habitats of these species. The estimated degradation rates, where a degraded habitat was defined as having ≥3 constructions per 100 m shoreline, were on average 0.5 % of available habitats per year and about 1 % in areas close to larger population centers. Approximately 40 % of available habitats were already degraded in 2005. These results provide an example of how many small construction projects over time may have a vast impact on coastal fish populations.

  11. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  12. Change-centric Model for Web Service Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Zuo, Wei; Aïcha-Nabila, Benharkat; Amghar, Youssef

    2014-01-01

    International audience; —Web service is subject to frequent changes during its lifecycle. Web service evolution is a widely discussed topic. Many related problems have also been generated from Web service evolution such as Web service adaptation, Web service versioning and Web service change management. To treat with these issues efficiently, a complete evolution model for Web service should be built. In this paper, we introduce our change-centric model for Web service evolution and how we us...

  13. Mathematical models of ecology and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai

    2012-01-01

    -history processes. By characterizing species and life history with traits, the interrelationship between community-level properties of ecological interest and individual-level performance is explored. Paper I examines the in uences of two dierent mechanisms of energy partitioning among individual life...... dynamics but as a trade-o promotes species survival by shortening juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction. Paper II compares the size-spectrum and food-web representations of communities using two traits (body size and habitat location) based unstructured population model of Lotka......) based size-structured population model, that is, interference in foraging, maintenance, survival, and recruitment. Their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities are explored. Ecologically, interference aects population demographic properties either negatively...

  14. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  15. Mathematical Model of Evolution of Brain Parcellation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Daniel D; Wei, Yi; Koulakov, Alexei A

    2016-01-01

    We study the distribution of brain and cortical area sizes [parcellation units (PUs)] obtained for three species: mouse, macaque, and human. We find that the distribution of PU sizes is close to lognormal. We propose the mathematical model of evolution of brain parcellation based on iterative fragmentation and specialization. In this model, each existing PU has a probability to be split that depends on PU size only. This model suggests that the same evolutionary process may have led to brain parcellation in these three species. Within our model, region-to-region (macro) connectivity is given by the outer product form. We show that most experimental data on non-zero macaque cortex macroscopic-level connections can be explained by the outer product power-law form suggested by our model (62% for area V1). We propose a multiplicative Hebbian learning rule for the macroconnectome that could yield the correct scaling of connection strengths between areas. We thus propose an evolutionary model that may have contributed to both brain parcellation and mesoscopic level connectivity in mammals.

  16. Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L; Powers, Sean P; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion.

  17. National assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the sandy shorelines of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romine, Bradley M.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination, and often are surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. Working with researchers from the University of Hawaii, investigators with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project have compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline-change rates for the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii. No widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change currently exists. Current measurement and rate-calculation methods vary from study to study, precluding the combination of study results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment was to develop a standardized method for measuring changes in shoreline position that is consistent from coast to coast. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the measurements in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for Kauai, Maui, and Oahu that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in the Geospatial Data section of this report.

  18. Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 6/15/2012 – 9/15/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE “Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline ” 5a. CONTRACT...this project. The paper, “Sea Spray Generation at Rocky Shoreline ” by Ed Andreas was accepted for publication and as of July 2016 was being...13 Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline 14 15 16 17 Edgar L Andreas 18 19 NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. 20 Lebanon, New

  19. Phenotypic heterogeneity in modeling cancer evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mahdipour-Shirayeh

    Full Text Available The unwelcome evolution of malignancy during cancer progression emerges through a selection process in a complex heterogeneous population structure. In the present work, we investigate evolutionary dynamics in a phenotypically heterogeneous population of stem cells (SCs and their associated progenitors. The fate of a malignant mutation is determined not only by overall stem cell and non-stem cell growth rates but also differentiation and dedifferentiation rates. We investigate the effect of such a complex population structure on the evolution of malignant mutations. We derive exactly calculated results for the fixation probability of a mutant arising in each of the subpopulations. The exactly calculated results are in almost perfect agreement with the numerical simulations. Moreover, a condition for evolutionary advantage of a mutant cell versus the wild type population is given in the present study. We also show that microenvironment-induced plasticity in invading mutants leads to more aggressive mutants with higher fixation probability. Our model predicts that decreasing polarity between stem and non-stem cells' turnover would raise the survivability of non-plastic mutants; while it would suppress the development of malignancy for plastic mutants. The derived results are novel and general with potential applications in nature; we discuss our model in the context of colorectal/intestinal cancer (at the epithelium. However, the model clearly needs to be validated through appropriate experimental data. This novel mathematical framework can be applied more generally to a variety of problems concerning selection in heterogeneous populations, in other contexts such as population genetics, and ecology.

  20. Remote sensing and gis applications in determining shoreline and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study of shoreline changes is essential for updating the changes in shoreline maps and management of natural resources as the shoreline is one of the most important features on the earth's surface. Shorelines are the key element in coastal GIS that provide information on coastal landform dynamics. The purpose of ...

  1. 36 CFR 327.31 - Shoreline management fee schedule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Shoreline management fee... THE CHIEF OF ENGINEERS § 327.31 Shoreline management fee schedule. A charge will be made for Shoreline... permits for vegetative modification on Shoreline areas. In all cases the total administrative charge will...

  2. A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

  3. Shoreline Stabilization Design and Wetland Restoration

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hill, Carlton

    2001-01-01

    ...) and the Commonwealth of Virginia, Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR). The project was for the design of shoreline stabilization and potential wetland restoration at five sites within LAFB...

  4. Shoreline changes along the Poompuhar Tranquebar region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundaresh; Jayakumar, S.; SanilKumar, V.

    of terracotta ring wells, brick structures, storage jars in the inter tidal zone and brick structures, stone structures, pottery from offshore explorations strongly support the habitation sites. There are several references suggesting the shift of shoreline...

  5. Historical Shoreline for Louisiana, Geographic NAD83, NOAA (2001) [shoreline_la_NOAA_1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    Louisiana Geographic Information Center — These data were automated to provide a suitable geographic information system (GIS) data layer depicting the historical shoreline for Louisiana. These data are...

  6. Genetic Models in Evolutionary Game Theory: The Evolution of Altruism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rubin, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    While prior models of the evolution of altruism have assumed that organisms reproduce asexually, this paper presents a model of the evolution of altruism for sexually reproducing organisms using Hardy–Weinberg dynamics. In this model, the presence of reciprocal altruists allows the population to

  7. Spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline change of a 280-km high-energy disrupted sandy coast from 1950 to 2014: SW France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelle, Bruno; Guillot, Benoit; Marieu, Vincent; Chaumillon, Eric; Hanquiez, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Poppeschi, Coline

    2018-01-01

    A dataset of 15 geo-referenced orthomosaics photos was generated to address long-term shoreline change along approximately 270 km of high-energy sandy coast in SW France between 1950 and 2014. The coast consists of sandy beaches backed by coastal dunes, which are only disrupted by two wide tidal inlets (Arcachon and Maumusson), a wide estuary mouth (Gironde) and a few small wave-dominated inlets and coastal towns. A time and spatially averaged erosion trend of 1.12 m/year is found over 1950-2014, with a local maximum of approximately 11 m/year and a maximum local accretion of approximately 6 m/year, respectively. Maximum shoreline evolutions are observed along coasts adjacent to the inlets and to the estuary mouth, with erosion and accretion alternating over time on the timescale of decades. The two inlet-sandspit systems of Arcachon and Maumusson show a quasi-synchronous behaviour with the two updrift coasts accreting until the 1970s and subsequently eroding since then, which suggests that shoreline change at these locations is controlled by allocyclic mechanisms. Despite sea level rise and the well-established increase in winter wave height over the last decades, there is no capture of significant increase in mean erosion rate. This is hypothesized to be partly the result of relevant coastal dune management works from the 1960s to the 1980s after a long period of coastal dune disrepair during and after the Second World War. This study suggests that long-term shoreline change of high-energy sandy coasts disrupted by inlets and/or estuaries is complex and needs to consider a wide range of parameters including, non-extensively, waves, tides, inlet dynamics, sea level rise, coastal dune management and coastal defences, which challenges the development of reliable long-term coastal evolution numerical models.

  8. Efficient Parallel Algorithms for Landscape Evolution Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moresi, L. N.; Mather, B.; Beucher, R.

    2017-12-01

    Landscape erosion and the deposition of sediments by river systems are strongly controlled bytopography, rainfall patterns, and the susceptibility of the basement to the action ofrunning water. It is well understood that each of these processes depends on the other, for example:topography results from active tectonic processes; deformation, metamorphosis andexhumation alter the competence of the basement; rainfall patterns depend on topography;uplift and subsidence in response to tectonic stress can be amplified by erosionand sediment deposition. We typically gain understanding of such coupled systems through forward models which capture theessential interactions of the various components and attempt parameterise those parts of the individual systemthat are unresolvable at the scale of the interaction. Here we address the problem of predicting erosion and deposition rates at a continental scalewith a resolution of tens to hundreds of metres in a dynamic, Lagrangian framework. This isa typical requirement for a code to interface with a mantle / lithosphere dynamics model anddemands an efficient, unstructured, parallel implementation. We address this through a very general algorithm that treats all parts of the landscape evolution equationsin sparse-matrix form including those for stream-flow accumulation, dam-filling and catchment determination. This givesus considerable flexibility in developing unstructured, parallel code, and in creating a modular packagethat can be configured by users to work at different temporal and spatial scales, but is also has potential advantagesin treating the non-linear parts of the problem in a general manner.

  9. modelling of directed evolution: Implications for experimental design and stepwise evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wedge , David C.; Rowe , William; Kell , Douglas B.; Knowles , Joshua

    2009-01-01

    In silico modelling of directed evolution: Implications for experimental design and stepwise evolution correspondence: Corresponding author. Tel.: +441613065145. (Wedge, David C.) (Wedge, David C.) Manchester Interdisciplinary Biocentre, University of Manchester - 131 Princess Street--> , Manchester--> , M1 7ND--> - UNITED KINGDOM (Wedge, David C.) UNITED KINGDOM (Wedge, David C.) Man...

  10. Sub-weekly to interannual variability of a high-energy shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Jeff E. Hansen,

    2010-01-01

    Sixty-one Global Positioning System (GPS), sub-aerial beach surveys were completed at 7 km long Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA (USA), between April 2004 and March 2009. The five-year time series contains over 1 million beach elevation measurements and documents detailed changes in beach morphology over a variety of spatial, temporal, and physical forcing scales. Results show that seasonal processes dominate at Ocean Beach, with the seasonal increase and decrease in wave height being the primary driver of shoreline change. Storm events, while capable of causing large short-term changes in the shoreline, did not singularly account for a large percentage of the overall observed change. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first two modes account for approximately three-quarters of the variance in the data set and are represented by the seasonal onshore/offshore movement of sediment (60%) and the multi-year trend of shoreline rotation (14%). The longer-term trend of shoreline rotation appears to be related to larger-scale bathymetric change. An EOF-based decomposition technique is developed that is capable of estimating the shoreline position to within one standard deviation of the range of shoreline positions observed at most locations along the beach. The foundation of the model is the observed relationship between the temporal amplitudes of the first EOF mode and seasonally-averaged offshore wave height as well as the linear trend of shoreline rotation. This technique, while not truly predictive because of the requirement of real-time wave data, is useful because it can predict shoreline position to within reasonable confidence given the absence of field data once the model is developed at a particular site.

  11. THE EFFICIENCY OF RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM LANDSAT-8 AND GOKTURK-2 IMAGERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718 titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model – Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band and GOKTURK-2 (4th band imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  12. The Efficiency of Random Forest Method for Shoreline Extraction from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 Imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Erdem, F.; Akpinar, B.; Ince, A. K.; Bozkurt, S.; Catal Reis, H.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718) titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model - Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band) and GOKTURK-2 (4th band) imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  13. Modeling rocky coastline evolution and equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limber, P. W.; Murray, A. B.

    2010-12-01

    Many of the world’s rocky coastlines exhibit planform roughness in the form of alternating headlands and embayments. Along cliffed coasts, it is often assumed that headlands consist of rock that is more resistant to wave attack than in neighboring bays, because of either structural or lithologic variations. Bays would then retreat landward faster than headlands, creating the undulating planform profiles characteristic of a rocky coastal landscape. While the interplay between alongshore rock strength and nearshore wave energy is, in some circumstances, a fundamental control on coastline shape, beach sediment is also important. Laboratory experiments and field observations have shown that beach sediment, in small volumes, can act as an abrasive tool to encourage sea cliff retreat. In large volumes, though, sediment discourages wave attack on the cliff face, acting as a protective barrier. This nonlinearity suggests a means for headland persistence, even without alongshore variations in rock strength: bare-rock headlands could retreat more slowly than, or at the same rate as, neighboring sediment-filled embayments because of alongshore variations in the availability of beach sediment. Accordingly, nearshore sediment dynamics (i.e. sediment production from sea cliff retreat and alongshore sediment transport) could promote the development of autogenic planform geometry. To explore these ideas, we present numerical and analytical modeling of large-scale (> one kilometer) and long-term (millennial-scale) planform rocky coastline evolution, in which sediment is supplied by both sea cliff erosion and coastal rivers and is distributed by alongshore sediment transport. We also compare model predictions with real landscapes. Previously, our modeling exercises focused on a basic rocky coastline configuration where lithologically-homogeneous sea cliffs supplied all beach sediment and maintained a constant alongshore height. Results showed that 1) an equilibrium alongshore

  14. Coastal landforms and the Holocene evolution of the Island of Samso, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sander, Lasse; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Pejrup, Morten

    2016-01-01

    The geomorphology of a coastal landscape may reveal an indication of past shoreline configurations. The spatial arrangement of the preserved morphologies may further contain indications on the importance of the different key parameters influencing shoreline evolution over millennial timescales...

  15. Evolution of Black-Box Models Based on Volterra Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. Silveira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical review of the many behavioral models actually used to model radio frequency power amplifiers and a new classification of these behavioral models. It also discusses the evolution of these models, from a single polynomial to multirate Volterra models, presenting equations and estimation methods. New trends in RF power amplifier behavioral modeling are suggested.

  16. Quantitative Modeling of Landscape Evolution, Treatise on Geomorphology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Veldkamp, A.; Shroder, F.S.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter reviews quantitative modeling of landscape evolution – which means that not just model studies but also modeling concepts are discussed. Quantitative modeling is contrasted with conceptual or physical modeling, and four categories of model studies are presented. Procedural studies focus

  17. Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Matthew C; Gaiarsa, Marília P; Stouffer, Daniel B

    2018-02-20

    Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Here, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly finescale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modelling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

  18. Modelling the Evolution of Rates of Ageing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Author Affiliations. Vishal Gohil1 2 Amitabh Joshi1. Evolution and Behaviour Laboratory, Animal Behaviour Unit, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur P. O. Bangalore 560 064, India; 403 Shriji Palace, Station Road, Porbandar 360575 (Gujarat) ...

  19. Modeling Temporal Evolution and Multiscale Structure in Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2013-01-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit both temporal evolution and multiscale structure. We propose a model for temporally correlated multifurcating hierarchies in complex networks which jointly capture both effects. We use the Gibbs fragmentation tree as prior over multifurcating trees and a change......-point model to account for the temporal evolution of each vertex. We demonstrate that our model is able to infer time-varying multiscale structure in synthetic as well as three real world time-evolving complex networks. Our modeling of the temporal evolution of hierarchies brings new insights...

  20. Shoreline clean-up methods : biological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoura, S.T. [Oil Spill Response Limited, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The cleanup of oil spills in shoreline environments is a challenging issue worldwide. Oil spills receive public and media attention, particularly in the event of a coastal impact. It is important to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of cleanup methods when defining the level of effort and consequences that are appropriate to remove or treat different types of oil on different shoreline substrates. Of the many studies that have compared different mechanical, chemical and biological treatments for their effectiveness on various types of oil, biological techniques have received the most attention. For that reason, this paper evaluated the effectiveness and effects of shoreline cleanup methods using biological techniques. It summarized data from field experiments and oil spill incidents, including the Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, Prestige, Grand Eagle, Nakhodka, Guanabara Bay and various Gulf war oil spills. Five major shoreline types were examined, notably rocky intertidal, cobble/pebble/gravel, sand/mud, saltmarsh, and mangrove/sea-grass. The biological techniques that were addressed were nutrient enrichment, hydrocarbon-utilizing bacteria, vegetable oil biosolvents, plants, surf washing, oil-particle interactions and natural attenuation. The study considered the oil type, volume and fate of stranded oil, location of coastal materials, extent of pollution and the impact of biological techniques. The main factors that affect biodegradation of hydrocarbons are the volume, chemical composition and weathering state of the petroleum product as well as the temperature, oxygen availability of nutrients, water salinity, pH level, water content, and microorganisms in the shoreline environment. The interaction of these factors also affect the biodegradation of oil. It was concluded that understanding the fate of stranded oil can help in the development of techniques that improve the weathering and degradation of oil on complex shoreline substrates. 39 refs.

  1. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-07-18

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic regions of the United States have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included four shoreline positions at a given location. The long-term shoreline change rates also incorporate the proxy-datum bias correction to account for the unidirectional onshore bias of the proxy-based high water line shorelines relative to the datum-based mean high water shorelines. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment project. The average rates reported here have a reduced amount of uncertainty relative to those presented in the previous assessments for these two regions.

  2. Advances in Modelling of Large Scale Coastal Evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stive, M.J.F.; De Vriend, H.J.

    1995-01-01

    The attention for climate change impact on the world's coastlines has established large scale coastal evolution as a topic of wide interest. Some more recent advances in this field, focusing on the potential of mathematical models for the prediction of large scale coastal evolution, are discussed.

  3. Computer modelling as a tool for understanding language evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bart; Gontier, N; VanBendegem, JP; Aerts, D

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the uses of computer models in studying the evolution of language. Language is a complex dynamic system that can be studied at the level of the individual and at the level of the population. Much of the dynamics of language evolution and language change occur because of the

  4. Knowledge Growth: Applied Models of General and Individual Knowledge Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silkina, Galina Iu.; Bakanova, Svetlana A.

    2016-01-01

    The article considers the mathematical models of the growth and accumulation of scientific and applied knowledge since it is seen as the main potential and key competence of modern companies. The problem is examined on two levels--the growth and evolution of objective knowledge and knowledge evolution of a particular individual. Both processes are…

  5. Modelling the long-term morphological evolution of a coupled open coast, inlet and estuary system to explore climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Walkden, Mike; Barnes, John; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to account for morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales. Critical aspects of geomorphic behaviour at these temporal scales emerge at a system level, such that accounting for the feedbacks between different landform components is of key importance. In this study we develop new methods to simulate the large-scale evolution of a coupled open coast - inlet - estuary system, allowing us to explore the system's response to climate change impacts and management interventions. The system explored here encompasses the Deben estuary (eastern England) and its adjacent shorelines. The estuary itself mainly consists of finer sediments. Sediments throughout the inlet, on the other hand, including the ebb-tidal delta itself, comprise a mixture of gravel and sand. The ebb-tidal shoals and sediment bypassing show broadly cyclic behaviour on a 10 to 30 year timescale. Neighbouring beaches consist of mixed sediment and are partially backed up by sedimentary cliffs, the behaviour of which is potentially influenced by the sediment bypassing at the inlet. In addition, the open coast has undergone major transformations as a result of numerous sea defences which have altered sediment availability and supply. The interlinked behaviour of this system is approached by coupling a new inlet model (MESO_i) with an existing, and recently extended, model for the open coast (SCAPE+). MESOi simulates the evolution at the mouth of the Deben at an aggregated scale, conceptualizing the inlet by different geomorphic features that are characterized mainly by their volume. The behaviour of the inlet shoals is influenced by the estuarine tidal prism, linking estuarine processes with inlet dynamics. SCAPE+ computes the shaping of the shore profile and has proven capable of providing valuable information in terms of decadal evolution and related cliff recession rates. Simulations conducted with this composition of models highlight

  6. Optimizing romanian maritime coastline using mathematical model Litpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, I. A.; Panaitescu, M.; Panaitescu, F. V.

    2017-08-01

    There are many methods and tools to study shoreline change in coastal engineering. LITPACK is a numerical model included in MIKE software developed by DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute). With this matehematical model we can simulate coastline evolution and profile along beach. Research and methodology: the paper contents location of the study area, the current status of Midia-Mangalia shoreline, protection objectives, the changes of shoreline after having protected constructions. In this paper are presented numerical and graphycal results obtained with this model for studying the romanian maritime coastline in area MIDIA-MANGALIA: non-cohesive sediment transport, long-shore current and littoral drift, coastline evolution, crossshore profile evolution, the development of the coastline position in time.

  7. Development of Biotechnical Methods to Control Shoreline Erosion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mays, D

    1999-01-01

    .... Coconut fiber logs, straw bales wrapped in poultry netting, large round hay bales, and bundled logs anchored to the shoreline were all evaluated for their potential to control wave damage to the shoreline...

  8. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  9. Modeling Software Evolution using Algebraic Graph Rewriting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciraci, S.; van den Broek, P.M.; Avgeriou, P.; Zdun, U.; Borne, I.

    We show how evolution requests can be formalized using algebraic graph rewriting. In particular, we present a way to convert the UML class diagrams to colored graphs. Since changes in software may effect the relation between the methods of classes, our colored graph representation also employs the

  10. Learning and evolution in games and oligopoly models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Possajennikov, A.

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic models of adjustment, as well as static models of equilibrium, are important to understand economic reality. This thesis considers such dynamic models applied to economic games. The models can broadly be divided into two categories: learning and evolution. This thesis analyzes reinforcement

  11. Tent map as an abstract model of open system evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usychenko, V. G.

    2011-06-01

    The irreversible equations of thermodynamic transport phenomena are changed to tent mapping. It is shown that a tent map may serve as a model of an open system capable of self-organization and evolution.

  12. Freshman Orientation Evaluation, Shoreline Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Gordon

    Evaluation of the freshman orientation program at Shoreline Community College (Washington) was approached through the use of several criteria: (l) results of the Brown-Holtzman Survey of Study Habits and Attitudes (SSHA), (2) comparison of first-quarter grade averages with orientation program attendance records, (3) the completion of a…

  13. Observations of shoreline-sandbar coupling on an embayed beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Lageweg, W.I.; Bryan, K.R.; Coco, G.; Ruessink, B.G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyse a seven-year dataset (1999–2005) of shoreline and sandbar variations derived from video observations at the embayed Tairua Beach, New Zealand, to explore sandbar–shoreline coupling and to determine how this coupling is related to alongshore-averaged sandbar–shoreline separation and beach

  14. Monitoring Shoreline Change using Remote Sensing and GIS: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), aerial photographs, shoreline change. Data from aerial photographs taken in 1981, 1992 and 2002 of the Kunduchi shoreline off the Dar es Salaam coast were integrated in a geographic information system (GIS) to determine shoreline change in that locality.

  15. [Modeling asthma evolution by a multi-state model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudemaghe, T; Daurès, J P

    2000-06-01

    There are many scores for the evaluation of asthma. However, most do not take into account the evolutionary aspects of this illness. We propose a model for the clinical course of asthma by a homogeneous Markov model process based on data provided by the A.R.I.A. (Association de Recherche en Intelligence Artificielle dans le cadre de l'asthme et des maladies respiratoires). The criterion used is the activity of the illness during the month before consultation. The activity is divided into three levels: light (state 1), mild (state 2) and severe (state 3). The model allows the evaluation of the strength of transition between states. We found that strong intensities were implicated towards state 2 (lambda(12) and lambda(32)), less towards state 1 (lambda(21) and lambda(31)), and minimum towards state 3 (lambda(23)). This results in an equilibrium distribution essentially divided between state 1 and 2 (44.6% and 51.0% respectively) with a small proportion in state 3 (4.4%). In the future, the increasing amount of available data should permit the introduction of covariables, the distinction of subgroups and the implementation of clinical studies. The interest of this model falls within the domain of the quantification of the illness as well as the representation allowed thereof, while offering a formal framework for the clinical notion of time and evolution.

  16. Structure of the Scientific Community Modelling the Evolution of Resistance

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Faced with the recurrent evolution of resistance to pesticides and drugs, the scientific community has developed theoretical models aimed at identifying the main factors of this evolution and predicting the efficiency of resistance management strategies. The evolutionary forces considered by these models are generally similar for viruses, bacteria, fungi, plants or arthropods facing drugs or pesticides, so interaction between scientists working on different biological organisms would be expec...

  17. Modelling of nonlinear shoaling based on stochastic evolution equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed-Hansen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Jørgen Hvenekær

    1998-01-01

    are recast into evolution equations for the complex amplitudes, and serve as the underlying deterministic model. Next, a set of evolution equations for the cumulants is derived. By formally introducing the well-known Gaussian closure hypothesis, nonlinear evolution equations for the power spectrum...... with experimental data in four different cases as well as with the underlying deterministic model. In general, the agreement is found to be acceptable, even far beyond the region where Gaussianity (Gaussian sea state) may be justified. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V....

  18. Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

  19. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those

  20. Automatic Detection of Decadal Shoreline Change on Northern Coastal of Gresik, East Java - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuad, M. A. Z.; A, M. Fais D.

    2017-12-01

    The Coastal zone is a dynamic region that has high environmental and economic values. This present research focuses on the analyzing the rate of shoreline change using multi-temporal Landsat Imagery and Digital Shoreline Analysis Systems (DSAS) along the northern part of Gresik coastal area, East Java Indonesia. Five village were selected for analysis; Campurejo, Dalegan, Prupuh, Ngemboh, and Banyuurip. Erosion and Accretion were observed and detected on Multi-temporal satellite Images along the area of interest from 1972 - 2016. Landsat Images were radiometrically and geometrically corrected before using for analysis. Coastline delineation for each Landsat image was performed by MNDWI method before digitized for quantitative shoreline change analysis. DSAS was performed for quantitative analysis of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR). The results indicate that in the study area accretion and abrasion was occurred, but overall abrasion was dominated than accretion. The remarkable shoreline changes were observed in the entire region. The highest abrasion area was occurred in Ngemboh village. From 1972 to 2016, coastline was retreat 242.56 meter to the land and the rate of movement was -5.54m/yr. In contrast, Campurejo area was relatively stable due to the introduction of manmade structure, i.e. Jetty and Groin. The Shoreline movement and the rate of movement in this area were -6.11m and -0.12 m/yr respectively. The research represents an important step in understanding the dynamics of coastal area in this area. By identification and analysis of coastline evolution, the stake holder could perform a scenario for reducing the risk of coastal erosion and minimize the social and economic lost.

  1. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2006-01-01

    The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast is the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico, and will eventually include the Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1997-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ to get additional

  2. Computer models of vocal tract evolution: an overview and critique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.; Fitch, W. T.

    2010-01-01

    Human speech has been investigated with computer models since the invention of digital computers, and models of the evolution of speech first appeared in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Speech science and computer models have a long shared history because speech is a physical signal and can be

  3. Evolutive masing model, cyclic plasticity, ageing and memory effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidoroff, F.

    1987-01-01

    Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. Such a model must include two basic features: Dissipative behaviour on each cycle (hysteresis loop); evolution of this behaviour during the material's life (cyclic hardening or softening, aging,...). However, if both aspects are present in most existing models, the balance between them may be quite different. Many metallurgical investigations have been performed about the microstructure and its evolution during cyclic loading, and it is desirable to introduce these informations in phenomenological models. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed to combine: the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, aging). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour

  4. Influence of Oceanic and Estuarine Drivers on Wetland Shoreline Change: Moving Towards a Framework for Assessment of Coastal Erosion Hazards Along Sheltered Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, N. G.; Smith, K. E. L.; Doran, K. S.; Smith, C. G.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2015-12-01

    Barrier island and estuarine habitats act as natural buffers to wave energy and reduce erosion of mainland coasts; however, estuarine wetlands are under increasing threat from shoreline destabilization and erosion due to rising sea level and storms. Currently, the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards estimates the vulnerability of shorelines to hurricane erosion hazards by combining physical parameters of dune, beach, and shoreline morphology with storm hydrodynamic predictions. These hazard assessments are limited to ocean-side sandy beaches. However, with the increasing availability of water-penetrating lidar and vegetation filtering algorithms, as well as estuarine wave and hydrodynamic modeling, extending physical process analyses and risk assessments to estuarine and back-barrier shorelines is possible. In this study, we investigate the relationship between shoreline type, sediment supply rate, long-term erosion rates, and shoreline geophysical features. We focus on long-term changes, such as those associated with barrier island landward migration, which is dominated by the processes of storm overwash and sea-level rise. This migration means that the long-term changes in estuarine and ocean-facing shorelines can be correlated. We focus on understanding these correlations with estuarine drivers of wetland shoreline erosion and accretion, such as waves, sediment supply, and shoreline features. Quantitatively assessing the variance of estuarine shoreline behavior relative to oceanic shorelines will improve knowledge of estuarine shoreline susceptibility to storm-induced erosion, help fine-tune estimates of future forecasts of coastal change, and provide an initial framework for estimating erosion hazards along sheltered coasts.

  5. Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen R Fryer

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

  6. Topological evolution of virtual social networks by modeling social activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Dong, Junyu; Tang, Ruichun; Xu, Mantao; Qi, Lin; Cai, Yang

    2015-09-01

    With the development of Internet and wireless communication, virtual social networks are becoming increasingly important in the formation of nowadays' social communities. Topological evolution model is foundational and critical for social network related researches. Up to present most of the related research experiments are carried out on artificial networks, however, a study of incorporating the actual social activities into the network topology model is ignored. This paper first formalizes two mathematical abstract concepts of hobbies search and friend recommendation to model the social actions people exhibit. Then a social activities based topology evolution simulation model is developed to satisfy some well-known properties that have been discovered in real-world social networks. Empirical results show that the proposed topology evolution model has embraced several key network topological properties of concern, which can be envisioned as signatures of real social networks.

  7. Modeling the Microstructural Evolution During Constrained Sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Pryds, Nini

    2015-01-01

    A numerical model able to simulate solid-state constrained sintering is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo model for free sintering with a finite element model (FEM) for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural response to the local stress as ...

  8. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-02-12

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups).

  9. Coastal Foredune Evolution, Part 2: Modeling Approaches for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    five parametric models are reviewed that address different aspects of dune erosion and accretion. The models range from time-independent scaling ...for Meso- Scale Morphologic Evolution by Margaret L. Palmsten1, Katherine L. Brodie2, and Nicholas J. Spore2 PURPOSE: This Coastal and Hydraulics...expand both observations and modeling approaches across meso-timescales, which are more directly related to the operational scale of coastal dune and

  10. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, L.; Paasse, T.

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  11. Twisting of post-glacial Fennoscandian shorelines requires a low-viscosity asthenosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantov, Aleksey

    2014-05-01

    The Fennoscandian uplift has been intensely studied and discussed since the 18th century and it is now widely accepted to be an isostatic response to the recent deglaciation. Our knowledge of the ?uid properties of the Earth comes largely from its uplift response to load redistributions that occurred over the last ice age. The elevation of past shorelines and the present rate of land uplift constrain the ?uid properties of the mantle and the elastic rigidity of the lithosphere. The post-glacial uplift in Fennoscandia has been mapped by the following means: 1. Shorelevel displacement curves, showing the vertical displacement at a certain location, 2. Shoreline diagrams, showing the displacement and tilting of palaeo shorelines, 3. Present-day uplift monitored by tide gauge, old water marks, GPS observations and by satellite missions. The Earth rheology is best constrained by the peripheral response of the former glaciated area. The Norwegian west coast has experienced significant transgression in Younger Dryas (YD). Both north of this area and south of this area the relative sea level fell during YD. In the area of transgression the 60 m YD isobase crosses the 60 m Allerød isobase. This twisting of the shorelines happens between Bergen and Stavanger. There has been no change in the shoreline tilts between Allerød and Younger Dryas in this area. The same section of the coast that was transgressed during the YD also experienced a major YD ice-sheet re-advance. In part of this area the ice sheet re-advanced by at least 40 km. It seems likely that there is a causal connection between the ice-advance and the shoreline transgression. The Earth's response to glaciers and sediments has been modeled by using a layered viscous model overlain by an elastic lithosphere. In the calculations we have used the lack of tilting of the palaeo shorelines and twisting of shorelines as to constrain the Earth rheology. We will show that this data is very sensitive to the mantle

  12. Neutral null models for diversity in serial transfer evolution experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harpak, Arbel; Sella, Guy

    2014-09-01

    Evolution experiments with microorganisms coupled with genome-wide sequencing now allow for the systematic study of population genetic processes under a wide range of conditions. In learning about these processes in natural, sexual populations, neutral models that describe the behavior of diversity and divergence summaries have played a pivotal role. It is therefore natural to ask whether neutral models, suitably modified, could be useful in the context of evolution experiments. Here, we introduce coalescent models for polymorphism and divergence under the most common experimental evolution assay, a serial transfer experiment. This relatively simple setting allows us to address several issues that could affect diversity patterns in evolution experiments, whether selection is operating or not: the transient behavior of neutral polymorphism in an experiment beginning from a single clone, the effects of randomness in the timing of cell division and noisiness in population size in the dilution stage. In our analyses and discussion, we emphasize the implications for experiments aimed at measuring diversity patterns and making inferences about population genetic processes based on these measurements. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  13. The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: Answering recent challenges to the paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedan, Keryn B.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Wolanski, Eric; Barbier, Edward B.; Silliman, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, coastal wetlands have been recognized for their ability to stabilize shorelines and protect coastal communities. However, this paradigm has recently been called into question by small-scale experimental evidence. Here, we conduct a literature review and a small meta-analysis of wave attenuation data, and we find overwhelming evidence in support of established theory. Our review suggests that mangrove and salt marsh vegetation afford context-dependent protection from erosion, storm surge, and potentially small tsunami waves. In biophysical models, field tests, and natural experiments, the presence of wetlands reduces wave heights, property damage, and human deaths. Meta-analysis of wave attenuation by vegetated and unvegetated wetland sites highlights the critical role of vegetation in attenuating waves. Although we find coastal wetland vegetation to be an effective shoreline buffer, wetlands cannot protect shorelines in all locations or scenarios; indeed large-scale regional erosion, river meandering, and large tsunami waves and storm surges can overwhelm the attenuation effect of vegetation. However, due to a nonlinear relationship between wave attenuation and wetland size, even small wetlands afford substantial protection from waves. Combining man-made structures with wetlands in ways that mimic nature is likely to increase coastal protection. Oyster domes, for example, can be used in combination with natural wetlands to protect shorelines and restore critical fishery habitat. Finally, coastal wetland vegetation modifies shorelines in ways (e.g. peat accretion) that increase shoreline integrity over long timescales and thus provides a lasting coastal adaptation measure that can protect shorelines against accelerated sea level rise and more frequent storm inundation. We conclude that the shoreline protection paradigm still stands, but that gaps remain in our knowledge about the mechanistic and context-dependent aspects of shoreline

  14. Modeling the microstructural evolution during constrained sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    A numerical model able to simulate solid state constrained sintering of a powder compact is presented. The model couples an existing kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for free sintering with a finite element (FE) method for calculating stresses on a microstructural level. The microstructural respon...

  15. Multiobjective optimization of an extremal evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elettreby, M.F.

    2004-09-01

    We propose a two-dimensional model for a co-evolving ecosystem that generalizes the extremal coupled map lattice model. The model takes into account the concept of multiobjective optimization. We find that the system self-organizes into a critical state. The distributions of the distances between subsequent mutations as well as the distribution of avalanches sizes follow power law. (author)

  16. A last updating evolution model for online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Zhan; Xia, Zhengyou; Wang, Jiandong; Zhang, Chengcui

    2013-05-01

    As information technology has advanced, people are turning to electronic media more frequently for communication, and social relationships are increasingly found on online channels. However, there is very limited knowledge about the actual evolution of the online social networks. In this paper, we propose and study a novel evolution network model with the new concept of “last updating time”, which exists in many real-life online social networks. The last updating evolution network model can maintain the robustness of scale-free networks and can improve the network reliance against intentional attacks. What is more, we also found that it has the “small-world effect”, which is the inherent property of most social networks. Simulation experiment based on this model show that the results and the real-life data are consistent, which means that our model is valid.

  17. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah M.; Miner, Michael; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier-island arc. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

  18. Modeling of microcrack density based damage evolution in ceramic rods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grove, D.J.; Rajendran, A.M.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents results from simulations of shock wave propagation in ceramic rods with and without confinement. The experiments involved steel and graded-density flyer plates impacting sleeved and unsleeved AD995 ceramic rods. The main objectives of simulating these experiments were: 1) to validate the Rajendran-Grove (RG) ceramic model constants, and 2) to investigate the effects of confinement on damage evolution in ceramic rods, as predicted by the RG model. While the experimental measurements do not indicate the details of damage evolution in the ceramic rod, the numerical modeling has provided some valuable insight into the damage initiation and propagation processes in ceramic rods

  19. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah Mary; Miner, Michael D.; Kulp, Mark; Bohling, Carl; Penland, Shea

    2009-12-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of -0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of -1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from -11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to -41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated -201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of -38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.

  20. Modeling the summertime evolution of sea-ice melt ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lüthje, Mikael; Feltham, D.L.; Taylor, P.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a mathematical model describing the summer melting of sea ice. We simulate the evolution of melt ponds and determine area coverage and total surface ablation. The model predictions are tested for sensitivity to the melt rate of unponded ice, enhanced melt rate beneath the melt ponds...

  1. Application of the evolution theory in modelling of innovation diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Milan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The theory of evolution has found numerous analogies and applications in other scientific disciplines apart from biology. In that sense, today the so-called 'memetic-evolution' has been widely accepted. Memes represent a complex adaptable system, where one 'meme' represents an evolutional cultural element, i.e. the smallest unit of information which can be identified and used in order to explain the evolution process. Among others, the field of innovations has proved itself to be a suitable area where the theory of evolution can also be successfully applied. In this work the authors have started from the assumption that it is also possible to apply the theory of evolution in the modelling of the process of innovation diffusion. Based on the conducted theoretical research, the authors conclude that the process of innovation diffusion in the interpretation of a 'meme' is actually the process of imitation of the 'meme' of innovation. Since during the process of their replication certain 'memes' show a bigger success compared to others, that eventually leads to their natural selection. For the survival of innovation 'memes', their manifestations are of key importance in the sense of their longevity, fruitfulness and faithful replicating. The results of the conducted research have categorically confirmed the assumption of the possibility of application of the evolution theory with the innovation diffusion with the help of innovation 'memes', which opens up the perspectives for some new researches on the subject.

  2. Fluorine in the solar neighborhood: Chemical evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitoni, E.; Matteucci, F.; Jönsson, H.; Ryde, N.; Romano, D.

    2018-04-01

    Context. In light of new observational data related to fluorine abundances in solar neighborhood stars, we present chemical evolution models testing various fluorine nucleosynthesis prescriptions with the aim to best fit those new data. Aim. We consider chemical evolution models in the solar neighborhood testing various nucleosynthesis prescriptions for fluorine production with the aim of reproducing the observed abundance ratios [F/O] versus [O/H] and [F/Fe] versus [Fe/H]. We study in detail the effects of various stellar yields on fluorine production. Methods: We adopted two chemical evolution models: the classical two-infall model, which follows the chemical evolution of halo-thick disk and thin disk phases; and the one-infall model, which is designed only for thin disk evolution. We tested the effects on the predicted fluorine abundance ratios of various nucleosynthesis yield sources, that is, asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, Wolf-Rayet (W-R) stars, Type II and Type Ia supernovae, and novae. Results: The fluorine production is dominated by AGB stars but the W-R stars are required to reproduce the trend of the observed data in the solar neighborhood with our chemical evolution models. In particular, the best model both for the two-infall and one-infall cases requires an increase by a factor of 2 of the W-R yields. We also show that the novae, even if their yields are still uncertain, could help to better reproduce the secondary behavior of F in the [F/O] versus [O/H] relation. Conclusions: The inclusion of the fluorine production by W-R stars seems to be essential to reproduce the new observed ratio [F/O] versus [O/H] in the solar neighborhood. Moreover, the inclusion of novae helps to reproduce the observed fluorine secondary behavior substantially.

  3. Modeling the connection between development and evolution: Preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mjolsness, E.; Reinitz, J. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Garrett, C.D. [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Computer Science; Sharp, D.H. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-07-29

    In this paper we outline a model which incorporates development processes into an evolutionary frame work. The model consists of three sectors describing development, genetics, and the selective environment. The formulation of models governing each sector uses dynamical grammars to describe processes in which state variables evolve in a quantitative fashion, and the number and type of participating biological entities can change. This program has previously been elaborated for development. Its extension to the other sectors of the model is discussed here and forms the basis for further approximations. A specific implementation of these ideas is described for an idealized model of the evolution of a multicellular organism. While this model doe not describe an actual biological system, it illustrates the interplay of development and evolution. Preliminary results of numerical simulations of this idealized model are presented.

  4. Order reduction for a model of marine bacteriophage evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagliarini, Silvia; Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2017-02-01

    A typical mechanistic model of viral evolution necessary includes several time scales which can differ by orders of magnitude. Such a diversity of time scales makes analysis of these models difficult. Reducing the order of a model is highly desirable when handling such a model. A typical approach applied to such slow-fast (or singularly perturbed) systems is the time scales separation technique. Constructing the so-called quasi-steady-state approximation is the usual first step in applying the technique. While this technique is commonly applied, in some cases its straightforward application can lead to unsatisfactory results. In this paper we construct the quasi-steady-state approximation for a model of evolution of marine bacteriophages based on the Beretta-Kuang model. We show that for this particular model the quasi-steady-state approximation is able to produce only qualitative but not quantitative fit.

  5. Protoplanetary Nebula Evolution using the Beta Viscosity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Sanford S.

    2003-01-01

    The evolutionary dynamics of a protoplanetary disk is an important component of the planet formation process. In particular, the dynamic and thermodynamic field plays a critical role in chemical evolution, the migration of dust particles in the nebula, and the radial transport of meteoritic components. The dynamic evolution is investigated using analytical solutions of the surface density transport equations using a turbulence model based on hydrodynamic generation of turbulence. It captures the major properties of the disk including region of separation between radial inflow and-outflow and the evolution of the central plane temperature. The analytical formulas are compared with available numerical solutions based on the alpha viscosity model. The beta viscosity model, heretofore used for steady-state disks, is shown to be a useful approximation for unsteady problems.

  6. Applications of a composite model of microstructural evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoller, R.E.

    1986-01-01

    Near-term fusion reactors will have to be designed using radiation effects data from experiments conducted in fast fission reactors. These fast reactors generate atomic displacements at a rate similar to that expected in a DT fusion reactor first wall. However, the transmutant helium production in an austenitic stainless steel first wall will exceed that in fast reactor fuel cladding by about a factor of 30. Hence, the use of the fast reactor data will involve some extrapolation. A major goal of this work is to develop theoretical models of microstructural evolution to aid in this extrapolation. In the present work a detailed rate-theory-based model of microstructural evolution under fast neutron irradiation has been developed. The prominent new aspect of this model is a treatment of dislocation evolution in which Frank faulted loops nucleate, grow and unfault to provide a source for network dislocations while the dislocation network can be simultaneously annihilated by a climb/glide process. The predictions of this model compare very favorably with the observed dose and temperature dependence of these key microstructural features over a broad range. In addition, this new description of dislocation evolution has been coupled with a previously developed model of cavity evolution and good agreement has been obtained between the predictions of the composite model and fast reactor swelling data. The results from the composite model also reveal that the various components of the irradiation-induced microstructure evolve in a highly coupled manner. The predictions of the composite model are more sensitive to parametric variations than more simple models. Hence, its value as a tool in data analysis and extrapolation is enhanced

  7. The fuzziness of Jupiter's core: linking formation and evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helled, Ravit; Lozovsky, Michael; Vazan, Allona; Stevenson, David; Guillot, Tristan; Hubbard, William

    2017-04-01

    Juno data can be used to better constrain Jupiter's internal structure and origin. First, we present Jupiter's primordial internal structure based on formation models and show that Jupiter's core might not be distinct from the envelope, and that the deep interior can have a gradual heavy-element structure. Second, we explore how such a primordial (non-adiabatic) interior affects Jupiter's long-term evolution. Finally, we will discuss the link between these formation and evolution models and Jupiter's current-state internal structure.

  8. Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

    2016-12-01

    We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (services to organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

  9. Structure of the scientific community modelling the evolution of resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-12-05

    Faced with the recurrent evolution of resistance to pesticides and drugs, the scientific community has developed theoretical models aimed at identifying the main factors of this evolution and predicting the efficiency of resistance management strategies. The evolutionary forces considered by these models are generally similar for viruses, bacteria, fungi, plants or arthropods facing drugs or pesticides, so interaction between scientists working on different biological organisms would be expected. We tested this by analysing co-authorship and co-citation networks using a database of 187 articles published from 1977 to 2006 concerning models of resistance evolution to all major classes of pesticides and drugs. These analyses identified two main groups. One group, led by ecologists or agronomists, is interested in agricultural crop or stock pests and diseases. It mainly uses a population genetics approach to model the evolution of resistance to insecticidal proteins, insecticides, herbicides, antihelminthic drugs and miticides. By contrast, the other group, led by medical scientists, is interested in human parasites and mostly uses epidemiological models to study the evolution of resistance to antibiotic and antiviral drugs. Our analyses suggested that there is also a small scientific group focusing on resistance to antimalaria drugs, and which is only poorly connected with the two larger groups. The analysis of cited references indicates that each of the two large communities publishes its research in a different set of literature and has its own keystone references: citations with a large impact in one group are almost never cited by the other. We fear the lack of exchange between the two communities might slow progress concerning resistance evolution which is currently a major issue for society.

  10. [Attempt at computer modeling of evolution of human society].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levchenko, V F; Menshutkin, V V

    2009-01-01

    A model of evolution of human society and biosphere, which is based on the concepts of V. I. Vernadskii about noosphere and of L. N. Gumilev about ethnogenesis is developed and studied. The mathematical apparatus of the model is composition of finite stochastic automata. By using this model, a possibility of the global ecological crisis is demonstrated in the case of preservation of the current tendencies of interaction of the biosphere and the human civilization.

  11. Modeling microstructural evolution of multiple texture components during recrystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vandermeer, R.A.; Juul Jensen, D.

    1994-01-01

    Models were formulated in an effort to characterize recrystallization in materials with multiple texture components. The models are based on a microstructural path methodology (MPM). Experimentally the microstructural evolution of conmmercial aluminum during recrystallization was characterized...... using stereological point and lineal measurements of microstructural properties in combination with EBSP analysis for orientation determinations. The potential of the models to describe the observed recrystallization behavior of heavily cold-rolled commercial aluminum was demonstrated. A successful MPM...

  12. Shoreline oiling from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Zachary; Zengel, Scott; Baker, Mary; Steinhoff, Marla; Fricano, Gail; Rouhani, Shahrokh; Michel, Jacqueline

    2016-06-15

    We build on previous work to construct a comprehensive database of shoreline oiling exposure from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill by compiling field and remotely-sensed datasets to support oil exposure and injury quantification. We compiled a spatial database of shoreline segments with attributes summarizing habitat, oiling category and timeline. We present new simplified oil exposure classes for both beaches and coastal wetland habitats derived from this database integrating both intensity and persistence of oiling on the shoreline over time. We document oiling along 2113km out of 9545km of surveyed shoreline, an increase of 19% from previously published estimates and representing the largest marine oil spill in history by length of shoreline oiled. These data may be used to generate maps and calculate summary statistics to assist in quantifying and understanding the scope, extent, and spatial distribution of shoreline oil exposure as a result of the DWH incident. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Energetics in a model of prebiotic evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intoy, B. F.; Halley, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Previously we reported [A. Wynveen et al., Phys. Rev. E 89, 022725 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.022725] that requiring that the systems regarded as lifelike be out of chemical equilibrium in a model of abstracted polymers undergoing ligation and scission first introduced by Kauffman [S. A. Kauffman, The Origins of Order (Oxford University Press, New York, 1993), Chap. 7] implied that lifelike systems were most probable when the reaction network was sparse. The model was entirely statistical and took no account of the bond energies or other energetic constraints. Here we report results of an extension of the model to include effects of a finite bonding energy in the model. We studied two conditions: (1) A food set is continuously replenished and the total polymer population is constrained but the system is otherwise isolated and (2) in addition to the constraints in (1) the system is in contact with a finite-temperature heat bath. In each case, detailed balance in the dynamics is guaranteed during the computations by continuous recomputation of a temperature [in case (1)] and of the chemical potential (in both cases) toward which the system is driven by the dynamics. In the isolated case, the probability of reaching a metastable nonequilibrium state in this model depends significantly on the composition of the food set, and the nonequilibrium states satisfying lifelike condition turn out to be at energies and particle numbers consistent with an equilibrium state at high negative temperature. As a function of the sparseness of the reaction network, the lifelike probability is nonmonotonic, as in our previous model, but the maximum probability occurs when the network is less sparse. In the case of contact with a thermal bath at a positive ambient temperature, we identify two types of metastable nonequilibrium states, termed locally and thermally alive, and locally dead and thermally alive, and evaluate their likelihood of appearance, finding maxima at an optimal

  14. Ovarian Cancer Pathogenesis: A Model in Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison M. Karst

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Ovarian cancer is a deadly disease for which there is no effective means of early detection. Ovarian carcinomas comprise a diverse group of neoplasms, exhibiting a wide range of morphological characteristics, clinical manifestations, genetic alterations, and tumor behaviors. This high degree of heterogeneity presents a major clinical challenge in both diagnosing and treating ovarian cancer. Furthermore, the early events leading to ovarian carcinoma development are poorly understood, thus complicating efforts to develop screening modalities for this disease. Here, we provide an overview of the current models of ovarian cancer pathogenesis, highlighting recent findings implicating the fallopian tube fimbria as a possible site of origin of ovarian carcinomas. The ovarian cancer model will continue to evolve as we learn more about the genetics and etiology of this disease.

  15. HIV-specific probabilistic models of protein evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C Nickle

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Comparative sequence analyses, including such fundamental bioinformatics techniques as similarity searching, sequence alignment and phylogenetic inference, have become a mainstay for researchers studying type 1 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1 genome structure and evolution. Implicit in comparative analyses is an underlying model of evolution, and the chosen model can significantly affect the results. In general, evolutionary models describe the probabilities of replacing one amino acid character with another over a period of time. Most widely used evolutionary models for protein sequences have been derived from curated alignments of hundreds of proteins, usually based on mammalian genomes. It is unclear to what extent these empirical models are generalizable to a very different organism, such as HIV-1-the most extensively sequenced organism in existence. We developed a maximum likelihood model fitting procedure to a collection of HIV-1 alignments sampled from different viral genes, and inferred two empirical substitution models, suitable for describing between-and within-host evolution. Our procedure pools the information from multiple sequence alignments, and provided software implementation can be run efficiently in parallel on a computer cluster. We describe how the inferred substitution models can be used to generate scoring matrices suitable for alignment and similarity searches. Our models had a consistently superior fit relative to the best existing models and to parameter-rich data-driven models when benchmarked on independent HIV-1 alignments, demonstrating evolutionary biases in amino-acid substitution that are unique to HIV, and that are not captured by the existing models. The scoring matrices derived from the models showed a marked difference from common amino-acid scoring matrices. The use of an appropriate evolutionary model recovered a known viral transmission history, whereas a poorly chosen model introduced phylogenetic

  16. A model for evolution of shape changing precipitates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svoboda, Jiří; Fischer, F. D.; Mayrhofer, P. H.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 17 (2008), s. 4896-4904 ISSN 1359-6454 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA200410601; GA MŠk OC 163 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : precipitation * shape evolution * modelling Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamic s Impact factor: 3.729, year: 2008

  17. Digital Forensic Investigation Models, an Evolution study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Mushtaque

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In business today, one of the most important segments that enable any business to get competitive advantage over others is appropriate, effective adaptation of Information Technology into business and then managing and governing it on their will. To govern IT organizations need to identify value of acquiring services of forensic firms to compete cyber criminals. Digital forensic firms follow different mechanisms to perform investigation. Time by time forensic firms are facilitated with different models for investigation containing phases for different purposes of the entire process. Along with forensic firms, enterprises also need to build a secure and supportive platform to make successful investigation process possible. We have underlined different elements of organizations in Pakistan; need to be addressed to provide support to forensic firms.

  18. Observational constraints from models of close binary evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greve, J.P. de; Packet, W.

    1984-01-01

    The evolution of a system of 9 solar masses + 5.4 solar masses is computed from Zero Age Main Sequence through an early case B of mass exchange, up to the second phase of mass transfer after core helium burning. Both components are calculated simultaneously. The evolution is divided into several physically different phases. The characteristics of the models in each of these phases are transformed into corresponding 'observable' quantities. The outlook of the system for photometric observations is discussed, for an idealized case. The influence of the mass of the loser and the initial mass ratio is considered. (Auth.)

  19. A Traceability-based Method to Support Conceptual Model Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz Carmona, Luz Marcela

    2014-01-01

    Renewing software systems is one of the most cost-effective ways to protect software investment, which saves time, money and ensures uninter- rupted access to technical support and product upgrades. There are several mo- tivations to promote investment and scientific effort for specifying systems by means of conceptual models and supporting its evolution. As an example, the software engineering community is addressing solutions for supporting model traceability, continuous improvement of busi...

  20. A computer model for a theory of evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, Cristiano; Freguglia, Paolo; Rogora, Enrico

    2010-01-01

    Computer models and computer simulations are crucial for understanding complex phenomena because they compel the explicit enumeration of all variables and the exact specification of all relations between them. In this paper we discuss a computer model for a phenotypical theory of evolution which, in our opinion, is well suited to simulate the complex dependence of speciation on both internal and external factors, through their influences on the fertility factor. Some of these dependences are investigated through simulations.

  1. Evolution of autocatalytic sets in a competitive percolation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Renquan; Pei, Sen; Wei, Wei; Zheng, Zhiming

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of autocatalytic sets (ACSs) is a widespread process in biological, chemical, and ecological systems and is of great significance in many applications such as the evolution of new species or complex chemical organization. In this paper, we propose a competitive model with an m-selection rule in which an abrupt emergence of a macroscopic independent ACS is observed. By numerical simulations, we find that the maximal increase of the size grows linearly with the system size. We analytically derive the threshold t α where the explosive transition occurs and verify it by simulations. Moreover, our analysis explains how this giant independent ACS grows and reveals that, as the selection rule becomes stricter, the phase transition is dramatically postponed, and the number of the largest independent ACSs coexisting in the system increases accordingly. Our result indicates that suppression during evolution could lead to the abrupt appearance of giant ACSs. (paper)

  2. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  3. Testing stellar evolution models with detached eclipsing binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higl, J.; Weiss, A.

    2017-12-01

    Stellar evolution codes, as all other numerical tools, need to be verified. One of the standard stellar objects that allow stringent tests of stellar evolution theory and models, are detached eclipsing binaries. We have used 19 such objects to test our stellar evolution code, in order to see whether standard methods and assumptions suffice to reproduce the observed global properties. In this paper we concentrate on three effects that contain a specific uncertainty: atomic diffusion as used for standard solar model calculations, overshooting from convective regions, and a simple model for the effect of stellar spots on stellar radius, which is one of the possible solutions for the radius problem of M dwarfs. We find that in general old systems need diffusion to allow for, or at least improve, an acceptable fit, and that systems with convective cores indeed need overshooting. Only one system (AI Phe) requires the absence of it for a successful fit. To match stellar radii for very low-mass stars, the spot model proved to be an effective approach, but depending on model details, requires a high percentage of the surface being covered by spots. We briefly discuss improvements needed to further reduce the freedom in modelling and to allow an even more restrictive test by using these objects.

  4. Modeling evolution and immune system by cellular automata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezzi, M.

    2001-01-01

    In this review the behavior of two different biological systems is investigated using cellular automata. Starting from this spatially extended approach it is also tried, in some cases, to reduce the complexity of the system introducing mean-field approximation, and solving (or trying to solve) these simplified systems. It is discussed the biological meaning of the results, the comparison with experimental data (if available) and the different features between spatially extended and mean-field versions. The biological systems considered in this review are the following: Darwinian evolution in simple ecosystems and immune system response. In the first section the main features of molecular evolution are introduced, giving a short survey of genetics for physicists and discussing some models for prebiotic systems and simple ecosystems. It is also introduced a cellular automaton model for studying a set of evolving individuals in a general fitness landscape, considering also the effects of co-evolution. In particular the process of species formation (speciation) is described in sect. 5. The second part deals with immune system modeling. The biological features of immune response are discussed, as well as it is introduced the concept of shape space and of idiotypic network. More detailed reviews which deal with immune system models (mainly focused on idiotypic network models) can be found. Other themes here discussed: the applications of CA to immune system modeling, two complex cellular automata for humoral and cellular immune response. Finally, it is discussed the biological data and the general conclusions are drawn in the last section

  5. Reservoir pressure evolution model during exploration drilling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korotaev B. A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on the analysis of laboratory studies and literature data the method for estimating reservoir pressure in exploratory drilling has been proposed, it allows identify zones of abnormal reservoir pressure in the presence of seismic data on reservoir location depths. This method of assessment is based on developed at the end of the XX century methods using d- and σ-exponentials taking into account the mechanical drilling speed, rotor speed, bit load and its diameter, lithological constant and degree of rocks' compaction, mud density and "regional density". It is known that in exploratory drilling pulsation of pressure at the wellhead is observed. Such pulsation is a consequence of transferring reservoir pressure through clay. In the paper the mechanism for transferring pressure to the bottomhole as well as the behaviour of the clay layer during transmission of excess pressure has been described. A laboratory installation has been built, it has been used for modelling pressure propagation to the bottomhole of the well through a layer of clay. The bulge of the clay layer is established for 215.9 mm bottomhole diameter. Functional correlation of pressure propagation through the layer of clay has been determined and a reaction of the top clay layer has been shown to have bulge with a height of 25 mm. A pressure distribution scheme (balance has been developed, which takes into account the distance from layers with abnormal pressure to the bottomhole. A balance equation for reservoir pressure evaluation has been derived including well depth, distance from bottomhole to the top of the formation with abnormal pressure and density of clay.

  6. Combining pre-spill shoreline segmentation data and shoreline assessment tools to support early response management and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Owens, E.H.; Martin, V.; Laforest, S.

    2003-01-01

    Several organizations, such as Environment Canada and the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, are developing or refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools were recently created by Environment Canada (Quebec and Ontario regions). The tools, which use Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, can be used for planning and documenting support needed for shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system, was conducted at Vercheres, Quebec in October 2002 by Eastern Canada Response Corporation. The testing took place during the planning stage of the early phases of a spill, namely after the first over-flight. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The information would have to be available in time to be considered during the planning activities. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  7. Assessing shoreline exposure and oyster habitat suitability maximizes potential success for sustainable shoreline protection using restored oyster reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Peyre, Megan K; Serra, Kayla; Joyner, T Andrew; Humphries, Austin

    2015-01-01

    Oyster reefs provide valuable ecosystem services that contribute to coastal resilience. Unfortunately, many reefs have been degraded or removed completely, and there are increased efforts to restore oysters in many coastal areas. In particular, much attention has recently been given to the restoration of shellfish reefs along eroding shorelines to reduce erosion. Such fringing reef approaches, however, often lack empirical data to identify locations where reefs are most effective in reducing marsh erosion, or fully take into account habitat suitability. Using monitoring data from 5 separate fringing reef projects across coastal Louisiana, we quantify shoreline exposure (fetch + wind direction + wind speed) and reef impacts on shoreline retreat. Our results indicate that fringing oyster reefs have a higher impact on shoreline retreat at higher exposure shorelines. At higher exposures, fringing reefs reduced marsh edge erosion an average of 1.0 m y(-1). Using these data, we identify ranges of shoreline exposure values where oyster reefs are most effective at reducing marsh edge erosion and apply this knowledge to a case study within one Louisiana estuary. In Breton Sound estuary, we calculate shoreline exposure at 500 random points and then overlay a habitat suitability index for oysters. This method and the resulting visualization show areas most likely to support sustainable oyster populations as well as significantly reduce shoreline erosion. Our results demonstrate how site selection criteria, which include shoreline exposure and habitat suitability, are critical to ensuring greater positive impacts and longevity of oyster reef restoration projects.

  8. Assessing shoreline exposure and oyster habitat suitability maximizes potential success for sustainable shoreline protection using restored oyster reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. La Peyre

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Oyster reefs provide valuable ecosystem services that contribute to coastal resilience. Unfortunately, many reefs have been degraded or removed completely, and there are increased efforts to restore oysters in many coastal areas. In particular, much attention has recently been given to the restoration of shellfish reefs along eroding shorelines to reduce erosion. Such fringing reef approaches, however, often lack empirical data to identify locations where reefs are most effective in reducing marsh erosion, or fully take into account habitat suitability. Using monitoring data from 5 separate fringing reef projects across coastal Louisiana, we quantify shoreline exposure (fetch + wind direction + wind speed and reef impacts on shoreline retreat. Our results indicate that fringing oyster reefs have a higher impact on shoreline retreat at higher exposure shorelines. At higher exposures, fringing reefs reduced marsh edge erosion an average of 1.0 m y−1. Using these data, we identify ranges of shoreline exposure values where oyster reefs are most effective at reducing marsh edge erosion and apply this knowledge to a case study within one Louisiana estuary. In Breton Sound estuary, we calculate shoreline exposure at 500 random points and then overlay a habitat suitability index for oysters. This method and the resulting visualization show areas most likely to support sustainable oyster populations as well as significantly reduce shoreline erosion. Our results demonstrate how site selection criteria, which include shoreline exposure and habitat suitability, are critical to ensuring greater positive impacts and longevity of oyster reef restoration projects.

  9. A microscopic model of rate and state friction evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tianyi; Rubin, Allan M.

    2017-08-01

    Whether rate- and state-dependent friction evolution is primarily slip dependent or time dependent is not well resolved. Although slide-hold-slide experiments are traditionally interpreted as supporting the aging law, implying time-dependent evolution, recent studies show that this evidence is equivocal. In contrast, the slip law yields extremely good fits to velocity step experiments, although a clear physical picture for slip-dependent friction evolution is lacking. We propose a new microscopic model for rate and state friction evolution in which each asperity has a heterogeneous strength, with individual portions recording the velocity at which they became part of the contact. Assuming an exponential distribution of asperity sizes on the surface, the model produces results essentially similar to the slip law, yielding very good fits to velocity step experiments but not improving much the fits to slide-hold-slide experiments. A numerical kernel for the model is developed, and an analytical expression is obtained for perfect velocity steps, which differs from the slip law expression by a slow-decaying factor. By changing the quantity that determines the intrinsic strength, we use the same model structure to investigate aging-law-like time-dependent evolution. Assuming strength to increase logarithmically with contact age, for two different definitions of age we obtain results for velocity step increases significantly different from the aging law. Interestingly, a solution very close to the aging law is obtained if we apply a third definition of age that we consider to be nonphysical. This suggests that under the current aging law, the state variable is not synonymous with contact age.

  10. PROTOPLANETARY DISK STRUCTURE WITH GRAIN EVOLUTION: THE ANDES MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimkin, V.; Wiebe, D.; Pavlyuchenkov, Ya.; Zhukovska, S.; Semenov, D.; Henning, Th.; Vasyunin, A.; Birnstiel, T.

    2013-01-01

    We present a self-consistent model of a protoplanetary disk: 'ANDES' ('AccretioN disk with Dust Evolution and Sedimentation'). ANDES is based on a flexible and extendable modular structure that includes (1) a 1+1D frequency-dependent continuum radiative transfer module, (2) a module to calculate the chemical evolution using an extended gas-grain network with UV/X-ray-driven processes and surface reactions, (3) a module to calculate the gas thermal energy balance, and (4) a 1+1D module that simulates dust grain evolution. For the first time, grain evolution and time-dependent molecular chemistry are included in a protoplanetary disk model. We find that grain growth and sedimentation of large grains onto the disk midplane lead to a dust-depleted atmosphere. Consequently, dust and gas temperatures become higher in the inner disk (R ∼ 50 AU), in comparison with the disk model with pristine dust. The response of disk chemical structure to the dust growth and sedimentation is twofold. First, due to higher transparency a partly UV-shielded molecular layer is shifted closer to the dense midplane. Second, the presence of big grains in the disk midplane delays the freeze-out of volatile gas-phase species such as CO there, while in adjacent upper layers the depletion is still effective. Molecular concentrations and thus column densities of many species are enhanced in the disk model with dust evolution, e.g., CO 2 , NH 2 CN, HNO, H 2 O, HCOOH, HCN, and CO. We also show that time-dependent chemistry is important for a proper description of gas thermal balance.

  11. Stochastic evolutions of dynamic traffic flow modeling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Xiqun (Michael); Shi, Qixin

    2015-01-01

    This book reveals the underlying mechanisms of complexity and stochastic evolutions of traffic flows. Using Eulerian and Lagrangian measurements, the authors propose lognormal headway/spacing/velocity distributions and subsequently develop a Markov car-following model to describe drivers’ random choices concerning headways/spacings, putting forward a stochastic fundamental diagram model for wide scattering flow-density points. In the context of highway onramp bottlenecks, the authors present a traffic flow breakdown probability model and spatial-temporal queuing model to improve the stability and reliability of road traffic flows. This book is intended for researchers and graduate students in the fields of transportation engineering and civil engineering.

  12. A computer model of the evolution of specific maximum lifespan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A R

    1981-05-01

    To answer the question of why organisms have evolved finite and specific maximum lifespans, I have built and experimentally studied a discrete-event simulation model of the evolution of lifespan. Through natural selection, the model evolves an apparent plateau in maximum lifespan, the height of which is a decreasing function of both the intensity of niche fluctuations and specific fecundity. Evolved lifespan is therefore finite (small and essentially constant over accessible time intervals) and specific. Experiments demonstrate that the plateau is not due to group selection. Instead, it occurs because the rate of increase of maximum lifespan by natural selection - in an environment presenting a finite probability that death will occur prior to reaching the genetically specified maximum - is a decreasing function of maximum lifespan itself and asymptotically approaches zero. This supports in part a class of existing hypotheses that finite lifespan is due to an equilibrium between weak selection, as in the model, and various lifespan-decreasing processes, which however were not simulated in the present experiments. Although the model shows that such counter processes are not strictly necessary for the evolution of finite and specific maximum lifespan, my interpretation of the model's correspondence to organic evolution does imply a counter process, a bias in random genetic drift toward shorter lifespan, that is more general than those previously hypothesized.

  13. Adaptive Multiscale Modeling of Geochemical Impacts on Fracture Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, S.; Trebotich, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Deng, H.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding fracture evolution is essential for many subsurface energy applications, including subsurface storage, shale gas production, fracking, CO2 sequestration, and geothermal energy extraction. Geochemical processes in particular play a significant role in the evolution of fractures through dissolution-driven widening, fines migration, and/or fracture sealing due to precipitation. One obstacle to understanding and exploiting geochemical fracture evolution is that it is a multiscale process. However, current geochemical modeling of fractures cannot capture this multi-scale nature of geochemical and mechanical impacts on fracture evolution, and is limited to either a continuum or pore-scale representation. Conventional continuum-scale models treat fractures as preferential flow paths, with their permeability evolving as a function (often, a cubic law) of the fracture aperture. This approach has the limitation that it oversimplifies flow within the fracture in its omission of pore scale effects while also assuming well-mixed conditions. More recently, pore-scale models along with advanced characterization techniques have allowed for accurate simulations of flow and reactive transport within the pore space (Molins et al., 2014, 2015). However, these models, even with high performance computing, are currently limited in their ability to treat tractable domain sizes (Steefel et al., 2013). Thus, there is a critical need to develop an adaptive modeling capability that can account for separate properties and processes, emergent and otherwise, in the fracture and the rock matrix at different spatial scales. Here we present an adaptive modeling capability that treats geochemical impacts on fracture evolution within a single multiscale framework. Model development makes use of the high performance simulation capability, Chombo-Crunch, leveraged by high resolution characterization and experiments. The modeling framework is based on the adaptive capability in Chombo

  14. The influx of marine debris from the Great Japan Tsunami of 2011 to North American shorelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Maximenko, Nikolai; Lippiatt, Sherry

    2018-01-10

    Marine debris is one of the leading threats to the ocean and the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011 washed away an estimated 5million tons of debris in a single, tragic event. Here we used shoreline surveys, disaster debris reports and ocean drift models to investigate the temporal and spatial trends in the arrival of tsunami marine debris. The increase in debris influx to surveyed North American and Hawaiian shorelines was substantial and significant, representing a 10 time increase over the baseline in northern Washington State where a long term dataset was available. The tsunami event brought different types of debris along the coast, with high-windage items dominant in Alaska and British Columbia and large, medium-windage items in Washington State and Oregon. Recorded cumulative debris landings to North America were close to 100,000 items in the four year study period. The temporal peaks in measured shoreline debris and debris reports match the ocean drift model solutions. Mitigation and monitoring activities, such as shoreline surveys, provide crucial data and monitoring for potential impacts should be continued in the future. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

    2017-03-07

    A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

  16. 75 FR 66800 - National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-29

    ... SPACE ADMINISTRATION National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration... Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) Shoreline Restoration and Infrastructure Protection Program (SRIPP). SUMMARY... shoreline and the infrastructure behind it. Alternative One, NASA's preferred alternative, would include...

  17. 75 FR 8997 - National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ... SPACE ADMINISTRATION National Environmental Policy Act; Wallops Flight Facility Shoreline Restoration... Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) Shoreline Restoration and Infrastructure Protection Program (SRIPP). SUMMARY... from the Wallops Island shoreline and the infrastructure behind it. Alternative One, NASA's preferred...

  18. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny L; Currin, Carolyn A; O'Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  19. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.

    In glacial landscape evolution models, subglacial erosion rates are often related to basal sliding or ice discharge by a power-law. This relation can be justified when considering bed abrasion, where rock debris transported in the basal ice drives erosion. However, the relation is not well......) introduced a new model for subglacial erosion by quarrying that operates from the theory of adhesive wear. The model is based on the fact that cavities, with a high level of bedrock differential stress, form in the lee of bed obstacles when the sliding velocity is too high to allow for the ice to creep...

  20. Multiscale analysis of restoration priorities for marine shoreline planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L; Sobocinski, Kathryn L; Thom, Ronald M; May, Christopher W; Borde, Amy B; Southard, Susan L; Vavrinec, John; Sather, Nichole K

    2009-10-01

    Planners are being called on to prioritize marine shorelines for conservation status and restoration action. This study documents an approach to determining the management strategy most likely to succeed based on current conditions at local and landscape scales. The conceptual framework based in restoration ecology pairs appropriate restoration strategies with sites based on the likelihood of producing long-term resilience given the condition of ecosystem structures and processes at three scales: the shorezone unit (site), the drift cell reach (nearshore marine landscape), and the watershed (terrestrial landscape). The analysis is structured by a conceptual ecosystem model that identifies anthropogenic impacts on targeted ecosystem functions. A scoring system, weighted by geomorphic class, is applied to available spatial data for indicators of stress and function using geographic information systems. This planning tool augments other approaches to prioritizing restoration, including historical conditions and change analysis and ecosystem valuation.

  1. Ecohydro-geomorphic implications of orographic precipitation on landform evolution using a landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetemen, O.; Saco, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    Orography induced precipitation and its implications on vegetation dynamics and landscape morphology have long been documented in the literature. However a numerical framework that integrates a range of ecohydrologic and geomorphic processes to explore the coupled ecohydro-geomorphic landscape response of catchments where pronounced orographic precipitation prevails has been missing. In this study, our aim is to realistically represent orographic-precipitation-driven ecohydrologic dynamics in a landscape evolution model (LEM). The model is used to investigate how ecohydro-geomorphic differences caused by differential precipitation patterns on the leeward and windward sides of low-relief landscapes lead to differences in the organization of modelled topography, soil moisture and plant biomass. We use the CHILD LEM equipped with a vegetation dynamics component that explicitly tracks above- and below-ground biomass, and a precipitation forcing component that simulates rainfall as a function of elevation and orientation. The preliminary results of the model show how the competition between an increased shear stress through runoff production and an enhanced resistance force due to denser canopy cover shape the landscape. Moreover, orographic precipitation leads to not only the migration of the divide between leeward and windward slopes but also a change in the concavity of streams. These results clearly demonstrate the strong coupling between landform evolution and climate processes.

  2. Entropy in the Tangled Nature Model of evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roach, Ty N.F.; Nulton, James; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Applications of entropy principles to evolution and ecology are of tantamount importance given the central role spatiotemporal structuring plays in both evolution and ecological succession. We obtain here a qualitative interpretation of the role of entropy in evolving ecological systems. Our...... interpretation is supported by mathematical arguments using simulation data generated by the Tangled Nature Model (TNM), a stochastic model of evolving ecologies. We define two types of configurational entropy and study their empirical time dependence obtained from the data. Both entropy measures increase...... logarithmically with time, while the entropy per individual decreases in time, in parallel with the growth of emergent structures visible from other aspects of the simulation. We discuss the biological relevance of these entropies to describe niche space and functional space of ecosystems, as well as their use...

  3. NOAA's Shoreline Survey Maps - Raster NOAA-NOS Shoreline Survey Manuscripts that define the shoreline and alongshore natural and man-made features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOS coastal survey maps (often called t-sheet or tp-sheet maps) are special use planimetric or topographic maps that precisely define the shoreline and alongshore...

  4. A simple spatiotemporal evolution model of a transmission power grid

    OpenAIRE

    Rosas Casals, Martí; Valverde, Sergi; Solé, Ricard Vicenç

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model for the spatial and temporal evolution of a particularly large human-made network: the 400-kV French transmission power grid. This is based on 1) an attachment procedure that diminishes the connection probability between two nodes as the network grows and 2) a coupled cost function characterizing the available budget at every time step. Two differentiated and consecutive processes can be distinguished: a first global space-filling process and a secondary loca...

  5. Geochemical modelling of groundwater evolution using chemical equilibrium codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitkaenen, P.; Pirhonen, V.

    1991-01-01

    Geochemical equilibrium codes are a modern tool in studying interaction between groundwater and solid phases. The most common used programs and application subjects are shortly presented in this article. The main emphasis is laid on the approach method of using calculated results in evaluating groundwater evolution in hydrogeological system. At present in geochemical equilibrium modelling also kinetic as well as hydrologic constrains along a flow path are taken into consideration

  6. Nonlinear evolution inclusions arising from phase change models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Colli, P.; Krejčí, Pavel; Rocca, E.; Sprekels, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 4 (2007), s. 1067-1098 ISSN 0011-4642 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/02/1058 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : nonlinear and nonlocal evolution equations * Cahn-Hilliard type dynamics * phase transitions models Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.155, year: 2007 http://www.dml.cz/bitstream/handle/10338.dmlcz/128228/CzechMathJ_57-2007-4_2.pdf

  7. Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Lazarus

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

  8. Models for the directed evolution of bacterial allelopathy: bacteriophage lysins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Bull

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbes produce a variety of compounds that are used to kill or suppress other species. Traditional antibiotics have their origins in these natural products, as do many types of compounds being pursued today in the quest for new antibacterial drugs. When a potential toxin can be encoded by and exported from a species that is not harmed, the opportunity exists to use directed evolution to improve the toxin’s ability to kill other species—allelopathy. In contrast to the typical application of directed evolution, this case requires the co-culture of at least two species or strains, a host that is unharmed by the toxin plus the intended target of the toxin. We develop mathematical and computational models of this directed evolution process. Two contexts are considered, one with the toxin encoded on a plasmid and the other with the toxin encoded in a phage. The plasmid system appears to be more promising than the phage system. Crucial to both designs is the ability to co-culture two species/strains (host and target such that the host is greatly outgrown by the target species except when the target species is killed. The results suggest that, if these initial conditions can be satisfied, directed evolution is feasible for the plasmid-based system. Screening with a plasmid-based system may also enable rapid improvement of a toxin.

  9. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny L Davis

    Full Text Available Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  10. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny L.; Currin, Carolyn A.; O’Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit. PMID:26569503

  11. The Institutional Approach for Modeling the Evolution of Human Societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Simon T

    2018-01-01

    Artificial life is concerned with understanding the dynamics of human societies. A defining feature of any society is its institutions. However, defining exactly what an institution is has proven difficult, with authors often talking past each other. This article presents a dynamic model of institutions, which views them as political game forms that generate the rules of a group's economic interactions. Unlike most prior work, the framework presented here allows for the construction of explicit models of the evolution of institutional rules. It takes account of the fact that group members are likely to try to create rules that benefit themselves. Following from this, it allows us to determine the conditions under which self-interested individuals will create institutional rules that support cooperation-for example, that prevent a tragedy of the commons. The article finishes with an example of how a model of the evolution of institutional rewards and punishments for promoting cooperation can be created. It is intended that this framework will allow artificial life researchers to examine how human groups can themselves create conditions for cooperation. This will help provide a better understanding of historical human social evolution, and facilitate the resolution of pressing societal social dilemmas.

  12. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-01-30

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Generalized martingale model of the uncertainty evolution of streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tongtiegang; Zhao, Jianshi; Yang, Dawen; Wang, Hao

    2013-07-01

    Streamflow forecasts are dynamically updated in real-time, thus facilitating a process of forecast uncertainty evolution. Forecast uncertainty generally decreases over time and as more hydrologic information becomes available. The process of forecasting and uncertainty updating can be described by the martingale model of forecast evolution (MMFE), which formulates the total forecast uncertainty of a streamflow in one future period as the sum of forecast improvements in the intermediate periods. This study tests the assumptions, i.e., unbiasedness, Gaussianity, temporal independence, and stationarity, of MMFE using real-world streamflow forecast data. The results show that (1) real-world forecasts can be biased and tend to underestimate the actual streamflow, and (2) real-world forecast uncertainty is non-Gaussian and heavy-tailed. Based on these statistical tests, this study proposes a generalized martingale model GMMFE for the simulation of biased and non-Gaussian forecast uncertainties. The new model combines the normal quantile transform (NQT) with MMFE to formulate the uncertainty evolution of real-world streamflow forecasts. Reservoir operations based on a synthetic forecast by GMMFE illustrates that applications of streamflow forecasting facilitate utility improvements and that special attention should be focused on the statistical distribution of forecast uncertainty.

  14. A model for evolution of overlapping community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Rituraj; Biswal, Bibhu

    2017-05-01

    A model is proposed for the evolution of network topology in social networks with overlapping community structure. Starting from an initial community structure that is defined in terms of group affiliations, the model postulates that the subsequent growth and loss of connections is similar to the Hebbian learning and unlearning in the brain and is governed by two dominant factors: the strength and frequency of interaction between the members, and the degree of overlap between different communities. The temporal evolution from an initial community structure to the current network topology can be described based on these two parameters. It is possible to quantify the growth occurred so far and predict the final stationary state to which the network is likely to evolve. Applications in epidemiology or the spread of email virus in a computer network as well as finding specific target nodes to control it are envisaged. While facing the challenge of collecting and analyzing large-scale time-resolved data on social groups and communities one faces the most basic questions: how do communities evolve in time? This work aims to address this issue by developing a mathematical model for the evolution of community networks and studying it through computer simulation.

  15. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  16. A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2015-11-01

    Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author

  17. Time evolution in deparametrized models of loop quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assanioussi, Mehdi; Lewandowski, Jerzy; Mäkinen, Ilkka

    2017-07-01

    An important aspect in understanding the dynamics in the context of deparametrized models of loop quantum gravity (LQG) is to obtain a sufficient control on the quantum evolution generated by a given Hamiltonian operator. More specifically, we need to be able to compute the evolution of relevant physical states and observables with a relatively good precision. In this article, we introduce an approximation method to deal with the physical Hamiltonian operators in deparametrized LQG models, and we apply it to models in which a free Klein-Gordon scalar field or a nonrotational dust field is taken as the physical time variable. This method is based on using standard time-independent perturbation theory of quantum mechanics to define a perturbative expansion of the Hamiltonian operator, the small perturbation parameter being determined by the Barbero-Immirzi parameter β . This method allows us to define an approximate spectral decomposition of the Hamiltonian operators and hence to compute the evolution over a certain time interval. As a specific example, we analyze the evolution of expectation values of the volume and curvature operators starting with certain physical initial states, using both the perturbative method and a straightforward expansion of the expectation value in powers of the time variable. This work represents a first step toward achieving the goal of understanding and controlling the new dynamics developed in Alesci et al. [Phys. Rev. D 91, 124067 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevD.91.124067] and Assanioussi et al. [Phys. Rev. D 92, 044042 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevD.92.044042].

  18. Modeling protein network evolution under genome duplication and domain shuffling

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    Isambert Hervé

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Successive whole genome duplications have recently been firmly established in all major eukaryote kingdoms. Such exponential evolutionary processes must have largely contributed to shape the topology of protein-protein interaction (PPI networks by outweighing, in particular, all time-linear network growths modeled so far. Results We propose and solve a mathematical model of PPI network evolution under successive genome duplications. This demonstrates, from first principles, that evolutionary conservation and scale-free topology are intrinsically linked properties of PPI networks and emerge from i prevailing exponential network dynamics under duplication and ii asymmetric divergence of gene duplicates. While required, we argue that this asymmetric divergence arises, in fact, spontaneously at the level of protein-binding sites. This supports a refined model of PPI network evolution in terms of protein domains under exponential and asymmetric duplication/divergence dynamics, with multidomain proteins underlying the combinatorial formation of protein complexes. Genome duplication then provides a powerful source of PPI network innovation by promoting local rearrangements of multidomain proteins on a genome wide scale. Yet, we show that the overall conservation and topology of PPI networks are robust to extensive domain shuffling of multidomain proteins as well as to finer details of protein interaction and evolution. Finally, large scale features of direct and indirect PPI networks of S. cerevisiae are well reproduced numerically with only two adjusted parameters of clear biological significance (i.e. network effective growth rate and average number of protein-binding domains per protein. Conclusion This study demonstrates the statistical consequences of genome duplication and domain shuffling on the conservation and topology of PPI networks over a broad evolutionary scale across eukaryote kingdoms. In particular, scale

  19. Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

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    Corentin Vande Kerckhove

    Full Text Available Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861, it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants' past behaviour. Several situations reflecting data availability are compared. When the data is scarce, the data from previous participants is used to predict how a new participant will behave. Judgment revision includes unpredictable variations which limit the potential for prediction. A first measure of unpredictability is proposed. The measure is based on a specific control experiment. More than two thirds of the prediction errors are found to occur due to unpredictability of the human judgment revision process rather than to model imperfection.

  20. Constraints and entropy in a model of network evolution

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    Tee, Philip; Wakeman, Ian; Parisis, George; Dawes, Jonathan; Kiss, István Z.

    2017-11-01

    Barabási-Albert's "Scale Free" model is the starting point for much of the accepted theory of the evolution of real world communication networks. Careful comparison of the theory with a wide range of real world networks, however, indicates that the model is in some cases, only a rough approximation to the dynamical evolution of real networks. In particular, the exponent γ of the power law distribution of degree is predicted by the model to be exactly 3, whereas in a number of real world networks it has values between 1.2 and 2.9. In addition, the degree distributions of real networks exhibit cut offs at high node degree, which indicates the existence of maximal node degrees for these networks. In this paper we propose a simple extension to the "Scale Free" model, which offers better agreement with the experimental data. This improvement is satisfying, but the model still does not explain why the attachment probabilities should favor high degree nodes, or indeed how constraints arrive in non-physical networks. Using recent advances in the analysis of the entropy of graphs at the node level we propose a first principles derivation for the "Scale Free" and "constraints" model from thermodynamic principles, and demonstrate that both preferential attachment and constraints could arise as a natural consequence of the second law of thermodynamics.

  1. Considering Planetary Constraints and Dynamic Screening in Solar Evolution Modeling

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    Wood, Suzannah R.; Mussack, Katie; Guzik, Joyce A.

    2018-01-01

    The ‘faint early sun problem’ remains unsolved. This problem consists of the apparent contradiction between the standard solar model prediction of lower luminosity (70% of current luminosity) and the observations of liquid water on early Earth and Mars. The presence of liquid water on early Earth and Mars should not be neglected and should be used as a constraint for solar evolution modeling. In addition, modifications to standard solar models are needed to address the discrepancy with solar structure inferred from helioseismology given the latest solar abundance determinations. Here, we will utilize the three different solar abundances: GN93 (Grevesse & Noels, 1993), AGS05 (Asplund et al., 2005), AGSS09 (Asplund et al., 2009). Here, we propose an early mass loss model with an initial solar mass between 1.07 and 1.15 solar masses and an exponentially decreasing mass-loss rate to meet conditions in the early solar system (Wood et al, submitted). Additionally, we investigate the effects of dynamic screening and the new OPLIB opacities from Los Alamos (Colgan et al., 2016). We show the effects of these modifications to the standard solar evolution models on the interior structure, neutrino fluxes, sound speed, p-mode frequencies, convection zone depth, and envelope helium and element abundance of the model sun at the present day.

  2. Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes for shoreline restoration: case study of Barataria shoreline, Louisiana

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    Kindinger, Jack G.; Flocks, James G.; Kulp, Mark; Penland, Shea; Britsch, Louis D.

    2002-01-01

    The Louisiana barrier shoreline of Barataria Basin, which lies within the western Mississippi River delta, has undergone significant retreat during the past 100 years. The most practical restoration method to rebuild these shorelines is sand nourishment. Seismic and sonar interpretations verified with geologic samples (vibracores and borings) indicate that there are nine sand targets within the Barataria study area that meet or exceed the minimum criteria for potential resource sites. However, the near surface lithology in the basin is typically silts and clays. Locating suitable sand resources for shoreline restoration is challenging. The sand units are associated with geologic depositional systems such as ebb-tidal deltas, distributary mouth bars, and channel fill (undifferentiated fluvial or tidal inlet channels). The nine potential sand targets consist primarily of fine sand and can be delineated into three surficial and six buried features. The surficial features contain approximately 10% of the total sand resources identified. At least 90% of the sand resources need overburden sediment removed prior to use; almost 570 million yd3 (438.5 mil m3) of overburden will need to be removed if the entire resource is mined. In this study, we identified 396 to 532 mil yd3 (305.8 to 410.8 mil m3) of potential sand deposits for shoreline restoration. Previous studies using less dense survey methods greatly over-estimated sand resources available in this area. Many fluvial channels reported previously as sand-filled are mud-filled. Contrary to these previous studies, few fluvial subsystems in this region have abundant sand resources.

  3. Tilted lake shorelines record the onset of motion along the Hilton Creek fault adjacent to Long Valley caldera, CA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, J. P.; Finnegan, N. J.; Cervelli, P. F.; Langbein, J. O.

    2010-12-01

    Prominent normal faults occur within and around Long Valley caldera, in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California. However, their relationship to both the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the caldera since the 760 ka eruption of the Bishop Tuff remains poorly understood. In particular, in the Mono-Inyo Craters north of Long Valley, extensional faulting appears to be replaced by dike intrusion where magma is available in the crust. However, it is unclear whether extensional faults in Long Valley caldera have been active since the eruption of the Bishop Tuff (when the current topography was established) or are a relatively young phenomenon owing to the cooling and crystallization of the Long Valley magma reservoir. Here we use GPS geodesy and geomorphology to investigate the evolution of the Hilton Creek fault, the primary range-front fault bounding Long Valley caldera to the southwest. Our primary goals are to determine how long the Hilton Creek fault has been active and whether slip rates have been constant over that time interval. To characterize the modern deformation field, we capitalize on recently (July, 2010) reoccupied GPS benchmarks first established in 1999-2000. These fixed-array GPS data show no discernible evidence for recent slip on the Hilton Creek fault, which further highlights the need for longer-term constraints on fault motion. To establish a fault slip history, we rely on a suite of five prominent shorelines from Pleistocene Long Valley Lake whose ages are well constrained based on field relationships to dated lavas, and that are tilted southward toward the Hilton Creek fault. A preliminary analysis of shoreline orientations using GPS surveys and a 5-m-resolution Topographic Synthetic Aperture Radar (TOPSAR) digital elevation model shows that lake shorelines tilt towards the Hilton Creek fault at roughly parallel gradients (~ 0.6%). The measured shorelines range in inferred age from 100 ka to 500 ka, which constrain recent slip on the Hilton

  4. National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David; Richmond, Bruce M.; Ruggiero, Peter; List, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. In the case of this study, the shoreline being measured is the boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the California Coast represents the first of two reports on long-term sandy shoreline change for the western U.S., the second of which will include the coast of the Pacific NW, including Oregon and Washington. A report for the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was completed in 2004 and is available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1043/. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding long-term and short-term trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all

  5. Modulating and evaluating receptor promiscuity through directed evolution and modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainbrook, Sarah C; Yu, Jessica S; Reddick, Michael P; Bagheri, Neda; Tyo, Keith E J

    2017-06-01

    The promiscuity of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) has broad implications in disease, pharmacology and biosensing. Promiscuity is a particularly crucial consideration for protein engineering, where the ability to modulate and model promiscuity is essential for developing desirable proteins. Here, we present methodologies for (i) modifying GPCR promiscuity using directed evolution and (ii) predicting receptor response and identifying important peptide features using quantitative structure-activity relationship models and grouping-exhaustive feature selection. We apply these methodologies to the yeast pheromone receptor Ste2 and its native ligand α-factor. Using directed evolution, we created Ste2 mutants with altered specificity toward a library of α-factor variants. We then used the  Vectors of Hydrophobic, Steric, and Electronic properties and partial least squares regression to characterize receptor-ligand interactions, identify important ligand positions and properties, and predict receptor response to novel ligands. Together, directed evolution and computational analysis enable the control and evaluation of GPCR promiscuity. These approaches should be broadly useful for the study and engineering of GPCRs and other protein-small molecule interactions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. A Chemical Evolution Model for the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

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    Yuan Zhen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fornax is the brightest Milky Way (MW dwarf spheroidal galaxy and its star formation history (SFH has been derived from observations. We estimate the time evolution of its gas mass and net inflow and outflow rates from the SFH usinga simple star formation law that relates the star formation rate to the gas mass. We present a chemical evolution model on a 2D mass grid with supernovae (SNe as sources of metal enrichment. We find that a key parameter controlling the enrichment is the mass Mx of the gas to mix with the ejecta from each SN. The choice of Mx depends on the evolution of SN remnants and on the global gas dynamics. It differs between the two types of SNe involved and between the periods before and after Fornax became an MW satellite at time t = tsat. Our results indicate that due to the global gas outflow at t > tsat, part of the ejecta from each SN may directly escape from Fornax. Sample results from our model are presented and compared with data.

  7. A simple phenomenological model for time evolution of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, J.; Wang, Q. A.; Li, W.; Cai, X.

    2015-04-01

    Inspired by the maxim ”long union divides and long division unites”, a phenomenological model with the simplification of real social networks is proposed to explore the evolutionary features of these networks composed of the entities whose behaviors are dominated by two events: union and division. The nodes are endowed with some attributes such as identity, ingredient, richness, age and internal diversity, which determine collectively the evolution in a probabilistic way. Through the local interaction of two events, a stationary state of network is reached as a constant amount of nodes survive with no more event happened in the network, like a situation of tripartite confrontation. Besides, the number of survived nodes and the speed of network evolution can be controlled by two parameters.

  8. Open System Models of Isotopic Evolution in Earth's Silicate Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, S.; Paul, D.; Stracke, A.

    2016-12-01

    The present-day elemental and isotopic composition of Earth's terrestrial reservoirs can be used as geochemical constraints to study evolution of the crust-mantle system. A flexible open system evolutionary model of the Earth, comprising continental crust (CC), upper depleted mantle (UM) -source of mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), and lower mantle (LM) reservoir with an isolated reservoir-source of ocean island basalts (OIB), and incorporating key radioactive isotope systematics (Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and U-Th-Pb), is solved numerically at 1 Ma time step for 4.55 Ga, the age of the Earth. The best possible model-derived solution is the one that produces the present-day concentrations as well as isotopic ratios in terrestrial reservoirs, constrained from published data. Various crustal growth scenarios (continuous versus episodic and early versus late) and its effect on the evolution of isotope systematics in the silicate reservoirs have been evaluated. Modeling results suggest that a whole mantle that is compositionally similar to the present-day MORB source is not consistent with observational constraints. However, a heterogeneous mantle model, in which the present-day UM is 60% of the total mantle mass and a lower non-chondritic mantle, reproduces the estimated isotopic ratios and abundances in Earth's silicate reservoirs. Our results shows that mode of crustal growth strongly affects isotopic evolution of silicate Earth; only an exponential crustal growth pattern satisfactorily explains the chemical and isotopic evolution of the crust-mantle system. One notable feature of successful models is an early depletion of incompatible elements (and a rapid decrease in Th/U ratio, κ, in the UM) by the initial 500 Ma, as a result of early formation of continental crust. Assuming a slightly younger age of the Earth (4.45 Ga), our model better satisfies the Pb-isotope systematics in the respective silicate reservoirs, particularly in the UM, and explains the origin of several OIBs

  9. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

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    P. Bakker

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG. This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter

  10. Shoreline change analysis of Vedaranyam coast, Tamil Nadu, India.

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    Natesan, Usha; Thulasiraman, N; Deepthi, K; Kathiravan, K

    2013-06-01

    The coastal zone is one of the nation's greatest environmental and economic assets. The present research aims at studying the shoreline changes along Vedaranyam coast using conventional and modern techniques including field sampling, remote sensing, and geographical information system (GIS). The study area was divided into three zones. Dynamic Land/Sea polygon analysis was performed to obtain the shore line changes at different time periods between 1930 and 2005. From the multidate shoreline maps, the rate of shoreline change was computed using linear regression rate and end point rate. Further, the shoreline was classified into eroding, accreting, and stable regions through GIS analysis. The eroding, accreting, and stable coastal stretch along Vedaranyam is observed as 18 %, 80.5 %, and 1.5 %, respectively. Net shoreline movement is seaward, i.e., the coast is progressive with an average rate of 5 m/year. A maximum shoreline displacement of 1.3 km towards the sea is observed near Point Calimere. During the Asian Tsunami 2004, the eastern part of the study area showed high erosion. Sediment transport paths derived from the grain size analysis of beach sediments collected during different seasons help to identify the major sediment source and sinks. Point Calimere acts as the major sink for sediments whereas Agastiyampalli and Kodiakkarai are found to be the major sources for the sediment supply along the Vedaranyam coast. Shoreline change study from field and satellite data using GIS analysis confirms that Vedaranyam coast is accreting in nature.

  11. Sandbar Migration and Shoreline Change on the Chirihama Coast, Japan

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    Masatoshi Yuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Sandy beaches play a key role in regional tourism. It is important to understand the principal morphological processes behind preserving attractive beaches. In this study, morphological variation on the Chirihama Coast, Japan, an important local tourism resource, was investigated using two sets of field surveys. The objective was to analyze and document the multi-scale behaviors of the beach. First, long-term shoreline changes were examined based on shoreline surveys over the last two decades. Then, the middle-term behavior of multiple bar systems was analyzed based on the cross-shore profile surveys from 1998 to 2010. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis was conducted to capture the principal modes of the systematic bar migration. The shoreline analysis indicated a long-term eroding trend and showed that the seasonal variation has recently tended to increase. The profile analysis demonstrated that net offshore migrations of bars have been repeated with a return period of approximately four years. This general behavior of the bar system is similar to the net offshore migration phenomena observed at other sites in the world. EOF analysis revealed a relationship between bar configuration and middle-term variations in shoreline location; when a new bar is generated near the shoreline and a triple bar configuration is established, the shoreline tends to temporarily retreat, whereas the shoreline experiences an advance when the outer bar has most evolved.

  12. Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currin, C.; Davis, J.

    2017-12-01

    A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

  13. Chempy: A flexible chemical evolution model for abundance fitting. Do the Sun's abundances alone constrain chemical evolution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybizki, Jan; Just, Andreas; Rix, Hans-Walter

    2017-09-01

    Elemental abundances of stars are the result of the complex enrichment history of their galaxy. Interpretation of observed abundances requires flexible modeling tools to explore and quantify the information about Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) stored in such data. Here we present Chempy, a newly developed code for GCE modeling, representing a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of five to ten parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: for example, the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF), and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Unlike established approaches, Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets. It is essentially a chemical evolution fitting tool. We straightforwardly extend Chempy to a multi-zone scheme. As an illustrative application, we show that interesting parameter constraints result from only the ages and elemental abundances of the Sun, Arcturus, and the present-day interstellar medium (ISM). For the first time, we use such information to infer the IMF parameter via GCE modeling, where we properly marginalize over nuisance parameters and account for different yield sets. We find that 11.6+ 2.1-1.6% of the IMF explodes as core-collapse supernova (CC-SN), compatible with Salpeter (1955, ApJ, 121, 161). We also constrain the incidence of SN Ia per 103M⊙ to 0.5-1.4. At the same time, this Chempy application shows persistent discrepancies between predicted and observed abundances for some elements, irrespective of the chosen yield set. These cannot be remedied by any variations of Chempy's parameters and could be an indication of missing nucleosynthetic channels. Chempy could be a powerful tool to confront predictions from stellar

  14. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  15. A model for the evolution of nucleotide polymerase directionality.

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    Joshua Ballanco

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In all known living organisms, every enzyme that synthesizes nucleic acid polymers does so by adding nucleotide 5′-triphosphates to the 3′-hydroxyl group of the growing chain. This results in the well known 5'→3' directionality of all DNA and RNA Polymerases. The lack of any alternative mechanism, e.g. addition in a 3'→5' direction, may indicate a very early founder effect in the evolution of life, or it may be the result of a selective pressure against such an alternative. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In an attempt to determine whether the lack of an alternative polymerase directionality is the result of a founder effect or evolutionary selection, we have constructed a basic model of early polymerase evolution. This model is informed by the essential chemical properties of the nucleotide polymerization reaction. With this model, we are able to simulate the growth of organisms with polymerases that synthesize either 5'→3' or 3'→5' in isolation or in competition with each other. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have found that a competition between organisms with 5'→3' polymerases and 3'→5' polymerases only results in a evolutionarily stable strategy under certain conditions. Furthermore, we have found that mutations lead to a much clearer delineation between conditions that lead to a stable coexistence of these populations and conditions which ultimately lead to success for the 5'→3' form. In addition to presenting a plausible explanation for the uniqueness of enzymatic polymerization reactions, we hope these results also provide an example of how whole organism evolution can be understood based on molecular details.

  16. Competition and adaptation in an Internet evolution model.

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    Serrano, M Angeles; Boguñá, Marián; Díaz-Guilera, Albert

    2005-01-28

    We model the evolution of the Internet at the autonomous system level as a process of competition for users and adaptation of bandwidth capability. From a weighted network formalism, where both nodes and links are weighted, we find the exponent of the degree distribution as a simple function of the growth rates of the number of autonomous systems and connections in the Internet, both empirically measurable quantities. Our approach also accounts for a high level of clustering as well as degree-degree correlations, both with the same hierarchical structure present in the real Internet. Further, it also highlights the interplay between bandwidth, connectivity, and traffic of the network.

  17. Generative Models in Deep Learning: Constraints for Galaxy Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, Maximilian Dennis; Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Weigel, Anna K.

    2018-01-01

    New techniques are essential to make advances in the field of galaxy evolution. Recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence and machine learning have proven that these tools can be applied to problems far more complex than simple image recognition. We use these purely data driven approaches to investigate the process of star formation quenching. We show that Variational Autoencoders provide a powerful method to forward model the process of galaxy quenching. Our results imply that simple changes in specific star formation rate and bulge to disk ratio cannot fully describe the properties of the quenched population.

  18. Evolution of Models of Working Memory and Cognitive Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingfield, Arthur

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this article is to trace the evolution of models of working memory and cognitive resources from the early 20th century to today. Linear flow models of information processing common in the 1960s and 1970s centered on the transfer of verbal information from a limited-capacity short-term memory store to long-term memory through rehearsal. Current conceptions see working memory as a dynamic system that includes both maintaining and manipulating information through a series of interactive components that include executive control and attentional resources. These models also reflect the evolution from an almost exclusive concentration on working memory for verbal materials to inclusion of a visual working memory component. Although differing in postulated mechanisms and emphasis, these evolving viewpoints all share the recognition that human information processing is a limited-capacity system with limits on the amount of information that can be attended to, remain activated in memory, and utilized at one time. These limitations take on special importance in spoken language comprehension, especially when the stimuli have complex linguistic structures or listening effort is increased by poor acoustic quality or reduced hearing acuity.

  19. Microeconomic co-evolution model for financial technical analysis signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotundo, G.; Ausloos, M.

    2007-01-01

    Technical analysis (TA) has been used for a long time before the availability of more sophisticated instruments for financial forecasting in order to suggest decisions on the basis of the occurrence of data patterns. Many mathematical and statistical tools for quantitative analysis of financial markets have experienced a fast and wide growth and have the power for overcoming classical TA methods. This paper aims to give a measure of the reliability of some information used in TA by exploring the probability of their occurrence within a particular microeconomic agent-based model of markets, i.e., the co-evolution Bak-Sneppen model originally invented for describing species population evolutions. After having proved the practical interest of such a model in describing financial index so-called avalanches, in the prebursting bubble time rise, the attention focuses on the occurrence of trend line detection crossing of meaningful barriers, those that give rise to some usual TA strategies. The case of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000 serves as an illustration.

  20. Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, William T.; Lazzara, David; Haimes, Robert

    2010-01-01

    The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

  1. Six-vertex model and Schramm-Loewner evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyon, Richard; Miller, Jason; Sheffield, Scott; Wilson, David B.

    2017-05-01

    Square ice is a statistical mechanics model for two-dimensional ice, widely believed to have a conformally invariant scaling limit. We associate a Peano (space-filling) curve to a square ice configuration, and more generally to a so-called six-vertex model configuration, and argue that its scaling limit is a space-filling version of the random fractal curve SL E κ, Schramm-Loewner evolution with parameter κ , where 4 <κ ≤12 +8 √{2 } . For square ice, κ =12 . At the "free-fermion point" of the six-vertex model, κ =8 +4 √{3 } . These unusual values lie outside the classical interval 2 ≤κ ≤8 .

  2. 78 FR 23289 - Public Review of Draft National Shoreline Data Content Standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-18

    ... Geological Survey Public Review of Draft National Shoreline Data Content Standard AGENCY: Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey. ACTION: Notice; request for comments on draft National Shoreline Data... the draft National Shoreline Data Content Standard. The FGDC has developed a draft National Shoreline...

  3. Modeling Flow Pattern and Evolution of Meandering Channels with a Nonlinear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Gu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Meander dynamics has been the focus of river engineering for decades; however, it remains a challenge for researchers to precisely replicate natural evolution processes of meandering channels with numerical models due to the high nonlinearity of the governing equations. The present study puts forward a nonlinear model to simulate the flow pattern and evolution of meandering channels. The proposed meander model adopts the nonlinear hydrodynamic submodel developed by Blanckaert and de Vriend, which accounts for the nonlinear interactions between secondary flow and main flow and therefore has no curvature restriction. With the computational flow field, the evolution process of the channel centerline is simulated using the Bank Erosion and Retreat Model (BERM developed by Chen and Duan. Verification against two laboratory flume experiments indicates the proposed meander model yields satisfactory agreement with the measured data. For comparison, the same experimental cases are also simulated with the linear version of the hydrodynamic submodel. Calculated results show that the flow pattern and meander evolution process predicted by the nonlinear and the linear models are similar for mildly curved channels, whereas they exhibit different characteristics when channel sinuosity becomes relatively high. It is indicated that the nonlinear interactions between main flow and secondary flow prevent the growth of the secondary flow and induce a more uniform transverse velocity profile in high-sinuosity channels, which slows down the evolution process of meandering channels.

  4. Rebuilding Habitat and Shoreline Resilience through Improved Flood Control Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the SFBWQP Rebuilding Habitat and Shoreline Resilience through Improved Flood Control Project, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  5. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise

    2011-01-01

    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

  6. 15 CFR 923.25 - Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... effects of, and studying and evaluating ways to control, or lessen the impact of, shoreline erosion... techniques and other techniques that will be used to manage the effects of erosion, including potential...

  7. Alabama ESI: ESI (Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Alabama, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  8. Modeling Spatial and Temporal Fault Zone Evolution in Basement Rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, R. J.; Moir, H.; Shipton, Z. K.; Willson, J. P.

    2007-05-01

    There is considerable industrial interest in assessing the permeability of faults for the purpose of oil and gas production, deep well injection of waste liquids, underground storage of natural gas and disposal of radioactive waste. Deterministic prior estimation of fault hydraulic properties is highly error prone. Faults zones are formed through a complex interaction of mechanical, hydraulic and chemical processes and their permeability varies considerably over both space and time. Algorithms for predicting fault seal potential using throw and host rock property data exist for clay-rich fault seals but are contentious. In the case of crystalline rocks and sand-sand contacts, no such algorithms exist. In any case, the study of fault growth processes does not suggest that there is a clear or simple relationship between fault throw and the fault zone permeability. To improve estimates of fault zone permeability, it is important to understand the underlying hydro-mechanical processes of fault zone formation. In this research, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution of fault zones through development and application of a 2D hydro-mechanical finite element model. The temporal development of fault zone damage is simulated perpendicular to the main slip surface using Navier's equation for mechanical deformation. The model is applied to study development of fault zones in basement rocks. We simulate the evolution of fault zones from pre-existing joints and explore controls on the growth rate and locations of multiple splay fractures which link-up to form complex damage zones. We explore the temporal evolution of the stress field surrounding the fault tip for both propagation of isolated small faults and for fault linkage Results from these simulations have been validated using outcrop data.

  9. Phase-field modelling of microstructural evolution and properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jingzhi

    As one of the most powerful techniques in computational materials science, the diffuse-interface phase-field model has been widely employed for simulating various meso-scale microstructural evolution processes. The main purpose of this thesis is to develop a quantitative phase-field model for predicting microstructures and properties in real alloy systems which can be linked to existing thermodynamic/kinetic databases and parameters obtained from experimental measurements or first-principle calculations. To achieve this goal; many factors involved in complicated real systems are investigated, many of which are often simplified or ignored in existing models, e.g. the dependence of diffusional atomic mobility and elastic constants on composition. Efficient numerical techniques must be developed to solve those partial differential equations that are involved in modelling microstructural evolutions and properties. In this thesis, different spectral methods were proposed for the time-dependent phase-field kinetic equations and diffusion equations. For solving the elastic equilibrium equation with the consideration of elastic inhomogeneity, a conjugate gradient method was utilized. The numerical approaches developed were generally found to be more accurate and efficient than conventional approach such as finite difference method. A composition-dependent Cahn-Hilliard equation was solved by using a semi-implicit Fourier-spectral method. It was shown that the morphological evolutions in bulk-diffusion-controlled coarsening and interface-diffusion-controlled developed similar patterns and scaling behaviors. For bulk-diffusion-controlled coarsening, a cubic growth law was obeyed in the scaling regime, whereas a fourth power growth law was observed for interface-diffusion-controlled coarsening. The characteristics of a microstructure under the influence of elastic energy depend on elastic properties such as elastic anisotropy, lattice mismatch, elastic inhomogeneity and

  10. Documenting Fine-Sediment Import and Export for Two Contrasting Mesotidal Flats Sediment Flux through the Mekong Tidal River, Delta and Mangrove Shoreline Instrumentation to Support Investigation of Large Tropical Deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Contrasting Mesotidal Flats Sediment Flux through the Mekong Tidal River, Delta and Mangrove Shoreline Instrumentation to Support Investigation of Large...scales), and thereby validate localized measurements and numerical models of sediment transport for diverse tidal systems (tidal flats, mangrove forests...Sediment Flux through the Mekong Tidal River, Delta and Mangrove Shoreline Instrumentation to Support Investigation of Large Tropical Deltas 5a. CONTRACT

  11. Modelling of Damage Evolution in Braided Composites: Recent Developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Roy, Anish; Silberschmidt, Vadim V.; Chen, Zhong

    2017-12-01

    Composites reinforced with woven or braided textiles exhibit high structural stability and excellent damage tolerance thanks to yarn interlacing. With their high stiffness-to-weight and strength-to-weight ratios, braided composites are attractive for aerospace and automotive components as well as sports protective equipment. In these potential applications, components are typically subjected to multi-directional static, impact and fatigue loadings. To enhance material analysis and design for such applications, understanding mechanical behaviour of braided composites and development of predictive capabilities becomes crucial. Significant progress has been made in recent years in development of new modelling techniques allowing elucidation of static and dynamic responses of braided composites. However, because of their unique interlacing geometric structure and complicated failure modes, prediction of damage initiation and its evolution in components is still a challenge. Therefore, a comprehensive literature analysis is presented in this work focused on a review of the state-of-the-art progressive damage analysis of braided composites with finite-element simulations. Recently models employed in the studies on mechanical behaviour, impact response and fatigue analyses of braided composites are presented systematically. This review highlights the importance, advantages and limitations of as-applied failure criteria and damage evolution laws for yarns and composite unit cells. In addition, this work provides a good reference for future research on FE simulations of braided composites.

  12. Entropy in the Tangled Nature Model of Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ty N. F. Roach

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Applications of entropy principles to evolution and ecology are of tantamount importance given the central role spatiotemporal structuring plays in both evolution and ecological succession. We obtain here a qualitative interpretation of the role of entropy in evolving ecological systems. Our interpretation is supported by mathematical arguments using simulation data generated by the Tangled Nature Model (TNM, a stochastic model of evolving ecologies. We define two types of configurational entropy and study their empirical time dependence obtained from the data. Both entropy measures increase logarithmically with time, while the entropy per individual decreases in time, in parallel with the growth of emergent structures visible from other aspects of the simulation. We discuss the biological relevance of these entropies to describe niche space and functional space of ecosystems, as well as their use in characterizing the number of taxonomic configurations compatible with different niche partitioning and functionality. The TNM serves as an illustrative example of how to calculate and interpret these entropies, which are, however, also relevant to real ecosystems, where they can be used to calculate the number of functional and taxonomic configurations that an ecosystem can realize.

  13. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  14. Analisis Laju Perubahan Garis Pantai Pulau Karimun Besar Menggunakan DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System)

    OpenAIRE

    Dewi, Dian Kharisma; Sutikno, Sigit; Rinaldi, Rinaldi

    2017-01-01

    Shoreline changes could occurred because of hydrodinamically nature in coastal zone. The purpose of this study is to identify and approximating rate of shoreline changes which occurred in Karimun Besar Island. This study used to analyzed shoreline changesbased on remote sensing (satellite) data that processed by GIS (Geographic Information System). Then, to analyze the rate of its shoreline changes using DSAS (Digital ShorelineAnalysis System) with LRR (Linear Regression Rate) statistic metho...

  15. Heavy ion collision evolution modeling with ECHO-QGP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolando, V.; Inghirami, G.; Beraudo, A.; Del Zanna, L.; Becattini, F.; Chandra, V.; De Pace, A.; Nardi, M.

    2014-11-01

    We present a numerical code modeling the evolution of the medium formed in relativistic heavy ion collisions, ECHO-QGP. The code solves relativistic hydrodynamics in (3 + 1)D, with dissipative terms included within the framework of Israel-Stewart theory; it can work both in Minkowskian and in Bjorken coordinates. Initial conditions are provided through an implementation of the Glauber model (both Optical and Monte Carlo), while freezeout and particle generation are based on the Cooper-Frye prescription. The code is validated against several test problems and shows remarkable stability and accuracy with the combination of a conservative (shock-capturing) approach and the high-order methods employed. In particular it beautifully agrees with the semi-analytic solution known as Gubser flow, both in the ideal and in the viscous Israel-Stewart case, up to very large times and without any ad hoc tuning of the algorithm.

  16. Global Evolution of Plasmaspheric Plasma: Spacecraft-Model Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, B.; Welling, D. T.; Morley, S.

    2017-12-01

    During times of geomagnetic disturbance, material from the plasmasphere will move radially outward into the magnetosphere. Once introduced to the outer magnetosphere, this material has been shown to impact a variety of plasma populations as well as the coupling of energy from the solar wind into the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The magnitude of any of these effects is inherently linked to the density and evolution of the plasmaspheric plasma. Much of our idea of how this population behaves in the outer-magnetosphere is however based on statistical pictures and model results. Here, in-situ measurements from 10 spacecraft are used to constrain a coupled, global numerical modeling in order to identify true spatial extents, time histories, and densities of the plasmasphere and plumes in the outer magnetosphere.

  17. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  18. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  19. Recent Niger Delta shoreline response to Niger River hydrology: Conflict between forces of Nature and Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Asiwaju-Bello, Yinusa Ayodele; Anifowose, Adeleye Yekini Biodun

    2018-03-01

    The Niger River Delta is a prolific hydrocarbon province and a mega-delta of economic and environmental relevance. To understand patterns of its recent shoreline evolution (1923-2013) in response to the Niger River hydrology, and establish the role played by forces of Nature and Human, available topographic and satellite remote sensing data, combined with hydro-climatic (rainfall and runoff) data were analyzed. Results indicate that the entire delta coastline dramatically receded: 82% of the >400 km-long coast retreated, during the period 1950-1987; and 69% between 2007 and 2012. Prior to 1950, there was a continuation of seaward advancement along 53-74% of the delta coast. The 1950-1987 shoreline recession coincided with occurrences of two major events in the Niger River basin; these are downward trends in hydro-climatic conditions (the great droughts of the 1970s-1980s), and dam construction on the Lower Niger River at Kainji (1964-1968). The 2007-2012 event corresponded with the extensive channel dredging during 2009-2012 in the Lower Niger River from the coastal town of Warri in the south to Baro in the north. Remarkably, the largest net shoreline advancement recorded in 74% of the entire delta area occurred within a year (2012-2013), which we link to increased sediment supply to the coast caused by the '2012' floods, adjudged the worst floods in the entire Niger River Basin in the last few decades. With both anthropogenic and environmental factors inducing delta evolution, only innovative river and coastal management can determine the fortune of the future coastal development of the Niger Delta.

  20. Reactive transport modelling of iron-bentonite interface evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, James; Watson, Claire; Benbow, Steven; Savage, David; Sasamoto, Hiroshi

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. The interaction of steel (as canister metal, rock bolts, tunnel arches etc.) and its corrosion products with bentonite buffers in engineered barrier systems (EBS) may result in the alteration of montmorillonite to non-swelling Fe-rich minerals, potentially leading to a reduction of buffer swelling pressure and changes in other physical properties. In this paper the results of fully-coupled reactive-transport modelling of a steel-bentonite interface are presented. The models were constructed using the Quintessa code 'QPAC' which allows reactions to be modelled on compartment interfaces and as such, there is not the requirement to have a compartment comprising of steel with a fictive porosity. Therefore, more realistic simulations of the steel-bentonite interface can be produced. The conceptual model comprises a hypothetical 1D steel overpack-buffer interface with a 70 cm thick bentonite-sand buffer (70 wt.% Kunigel V1 bentonite and 30 wt.% quartz sand, as included in the Japanese H12 performance assessment; JNC, 1999). The simulations were produced for a constant temperature of 70 deg. C (P = P sat ) and included the following processes: mineral dissolution/precipitation reactions (kinetic treatment); ion exchange; aqueous speciation; and diffusive solute transport (coupled to porosity evolution). A number of model cases were produced in order to: assess which processes are likely to dominate at iron-bentonite interfaces; to determine the influence of process inclusion/exclusion on the evolution of the system; and to determine the implications of uncertainty in input parameters on predicted bentonite evolution. The models predict that iron-rich clays will replace bentonite primary minerals (especially montmorillonite) at steel-bentonite interfaces over timescales relevant for performance assessment. In addition, the models suggest that Fe-rich layer silicates could dominate the volume of the alteration zone with the

  1. Evolution of the continental upper mantle : numerical modelling of thermo-chemical convection including partial melting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Smet, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the evolution of the continental upper mantle based on numerical modelling results. The descriptive and explanatory basis is formed by a numerical thermo-chemical convection model. The model evolution starts in the early Archaean about 4 billion years ago. The model follows

  2. Evolution of the continental upper mantle : numerical modelling of thermo-chemical convection including partial melting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smet, J.H. de

    1999-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the evolution of the continental upper mantle based on numerical modelling results. The descriptive and explanatory basis is formed by a numerical thermo-chemical convection model. The model evolution starts in the early Archaean about 4 billion years ago. The model

  3. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  4. Linking Experimental Characterization and Computational Modeling in Microstructural Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, Melik Cumhar [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2002-06-01

    It is known that by controlling microstructural development, desirable properties of materials can be achieved. The main objective of our research is to understand and control interface dominated material properties, and finally, to verify experimental results with computer simulations. In order to accomplish this objective, we studied the grain growth in detail with experimental techniques and computational simulations. We obtained 5170-grain data from an Aluminum-film (120μm thick) with a columnar grain structure from the Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Experimentally obtained starting microstructure and grain boundary properties are input for the three-dimensional grain growth simulation. In the computational model, minimization of the interface energy is the driving force for the grain boundary motion. The computed evolved microstructure is compared with the final experimental microstructure, after annealing at 550 ºC. Two different measures were introduced as methods of comparing experimental and computed microstructures. Modeling with anisotropic mobility explains a significant amount of mismatch between experiment and isotropic modeling. We have shown that isotropic modeling has very little predictive value. Microstructural evolution in columnar Aluminum foils can be correctly modeled with anisotropic parameters. We observed a strong similarity between grain growth experiments and anisotropic three-dimensional simulations.

  5. Linking Experimental Characterization and Computational Modeling in Microstructural Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, Melik Cumhur [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2002-06-01

    It is known that by controlling microstructural development, desirable properties of materials can be achieved. The main objective of our research is to understand and control interface dominated material properties, and finally, to verify experimental results with computer simulations. In order to accomplish this objective, we studied the grain growth in detail with experimental techniques and computational simulations. We obtained 5170-grain data from an Aluminum-film (120μm thick) with a columnar grain structure from the Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Experimentally obtained starting microstructure and grain boundary properties are input for the three-dimensional grain growth simulation. In the computational model, minimization of the interface energy is the driving force for the grain boundary motion. The computed evolved microstructure is compared with the final experimental microstructure, after annealing at 550 ºC. Two different measures were introduced as methods of comparing experimental and computed microstructures. Modeling with anisotropic mobility explains a significant amount of mismatch between experiment and isotropic modeling. We have shown that isotropic modeling has very little predictive value. Microstructural evolution in columnar Aluminum foils can be correctly modeled with anisotropic parameters. We observed a strong similarity

  6. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

  7. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

  8. A unifying model of genome evolution under parsimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paten, Benedict; Zerbino, Daniel R; Hickey, Glenn; Haussler, David

    2014-06-19

    Parsimony and maximum likelihood methods of phylogenetic tree estimation and parsimony methods for genome rearrangements are central to the study of genome evolution yet to date they have largely been pursued in isolation. We present a data structure called a history graph that offers a practical basis for the analysis of genome evolution. It conceptually simplifies the study of parsimonious evolutionary histories by representing both substitutions and double cut and join (DCJ) rearrangements in the presence of duplications. The problem of constructing parsimonious history graphs thus subsumes related maximum parsimony problems in the fields of phylogenetic reconstruction and genome rearrangement. We show that tractable functions can be used to define upper and lower bounds on the minimum number of substitutions and DCJ rearrangements needed to explain any history graph. These bounds become tight for a special type of unambiguous history graph called an ancestral variation graph (AVG), which constrains in its combinatorial structure the number of operations required. We finally demonstrate that for a given history graph G, a finite set of AVGs describe all parsimonious interpretations of G, and this set can be explored with a few sampling moves. This theoretical study describes a model in which the inference of genome rearrangements and phylogeny can be unified under parsimony.

  9. Modelling Spatial and Temporal Fault Zone Evolution in Basement Rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, R. J.; Willson, J. P.; Shipton, Z. K.

    2006-12-01

    There is considerable industrial interest in assessing the permeability of faults for the purpose of oil and gas production, deep well injection of waste liquids, underground storage of natural gas and disposal of radioactive waste. Prior estimation of fault hydraulic properties is highly error prone. Faults zones are formed through a complex interaction of mechanical, hydraulic and chemical processes and their permeability varies considerably over both space and time. Algorithms for predicting fault seal potential using throw and host rock property data exist for clay-rich fault seals but are contentious. In the case of crystalline rocks and sand-sand contacts, no such algorithms exist. In any case, the study of fault growth processes does not suggest that there is a clear or simple relationship between fault throw and the fault zone permeability. To improve estimates of fault zone permeability, it is important to understand the underlying hydro-mechanical processes of fault zone formation. In this research, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution of fault zones through development and application of a 2D hydro-mechanical finite element model. The development of fault zone damage is simulated perpendicular to the main slip surface using a fully coupled solution of Navier's equation for mechanical deformation and Darcy's Law/conservation of fluid mass for subsurface fluid flow. The model is applied to study development of fault zones in basement rocks, based on the conceptual model of S. J. Martell, J. Struct. Geol. 12(7):869-882, 1990. We simulate the evolution of fault zones from pre-existing joints and explore controls on the growth rate and locations of multiple splay fractures which link-up to form complex damage zones. We are the first researchers to successfully simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of multiple wing cracks, tertiary fracturing, antithetic fractures propagating into the compressive region, infill fracturing between faults and

  10. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Paasse, T. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  11. Cabomba as a model for studies of early angiosperm evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vialette-Guiraud, Aurelie C M; Alaux, Michael; Legeai, Fabrice; Finet, Cedric; Chambrier, Pierre; Brown, Spencer C; Chauvet, Aurelie; Magdalena, Carlos; Rudall, Paula J; Scutt, Charles P

    2011-09-01

    The angiosperms, or flowering plants, diversified in the Cretaceous to dominate almost all terrestrial environments. Molecular phylogenetic studies indicate that the orders Amborellales, Nymphaeales and Austrobaileyales, collectively termed the ANA grade, diverged as separate lineages from a remaining angiosperm clade at a very early stage in flowering plant evolution. By comparing these early diverging lineages, it is possible to infer the possible morphology and ecology of the last common ancestor of the extant angiosperms, and this analysis can now be extended to try to deduce the developmental mechanisms that were present in early flowering plants. However, not all species in the ANA grade form convenient molecular-genetic models. The present study reviews the genus Cabomba (Nymphaeales), which shows a range of features that make it potentially useful as a genetic model. We focus on characters that have probably been conserved since the last common ancestor of the extant flowering plants. To facilitate the use of Cabomba as a molecular model, we describe methods for its cultivation to flowering in the laboratory, a novel Cabomba flower expressed sequence tag database, a well-adapted in situ hybridization protocol and a measurement of the nuclear genome size of C. caroliniana. We discuss the features required for species to become tractable models, and discuss the relative merits of Cabomba and other ANA-grade angiosperms in molecular-genetic studies aimed at understanding the origin of the flowering plants.

  12. Biological conditions of shorelines following the Exxon Valdez spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoker, S.W.; Neff, J.M.; Schroeder, T.R.; McCormick, D.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report is based primarily on survey results from Prince William Sound, where most of the heavy shoreline oiling occurred. Although not strictly quantitative, the shoreline surveys provide an unprecedented, broad base of professional observations covering the entire spill-affected area from 1989 through 1992 by which to evaluate spill impacts and recovery. Shoreline surveys documented that the extent of shoreline oiling declined substantially from 1989 to 1992. In 1989, oil was found on about 16 percent of the 3,000 miles of shoreline in Prince William Sound; by the spring of 1991, oil was found on only about 2 percent of the shoreline; and by May of 1992, on only 0.2 percent. In all years, most of this oil was located in the biologically least productive upper intertidal and supratidal zones. In both 1991 and 1992, small, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found on some boulder/cobble beaches. Most of these deposits were also located in the upper intertidal and were usually buried beneath clean sediments. In almost all cases, the condition of intertidal biological communities improved correspondingly from 1989 to 1992. By the spring of 1991, recovery appeared to be well under way on virtually all previously oiled shores, with species composition, abundance, and diversity levels usually comparable to those of nearby shores that were not oiled in 1989. Recruitment of intertidal plants and animals was observed as early as the summer of 1989, and increasingly through 1991 and 1992. Recruitment was evident even in areas with remnant deposits of surface and subsurface oil, indicating that toxicity levels of the oil had declined substantially and that, in most cases, the residual oil no longer interfered with biological recovery. Observations of birds and marine mammals on or near shorelines surveyed during 1991 and 1992 confirmed that species present before the spill were still present and were feeding and reproducing in areas affected by oil in 1989

  13. Thermal evolution of the Schwinger model with matrix product operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banuls, M.C.; Cirac, J.I. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Quantenoptik, Garching (Germany); Cichy, K. [Frankfurt am Main Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Poznan Univ. (Poland). Faculty of Physics; DESY Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Institut fuer Computing (NIC); Jansen, K.; Saito, H. [DESY Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Institut fuer Computing (NIC)

    2015-10-15

    We demonstrate the suitability of tensor network techniques for describing the thermal evolution of lattice gauge theories. As a benchmark case, we have studied the temperature dependence of the chiral condensate in the Schwinger model, using matrix product operators to approximate the thermal equilibrium states for finite system sizes with non-zero lattice spacings. We show how these techniques allow for reliable extrapolations in bond dimension, step width, system size and lattice spacing, and for a systematic estimation and control of all error sources involved in the calculation. The reached values of the lattice spacing are small enough to capture the most challenging region of high temperatures and the final results are consistent with the analytical prediction by Sachs and Wipf over a broad temperature range.

  14. Box models for the evolution of atmospheric oxygen: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasting, J F

    1991-01-01

    A simple 3-box model of the atmosphere/ocean system is used to describe the various stages in the evolution of atmospheric oxygen. In Stage I, which probably lasted until redbeds began to form about 2.0 Ga ago, the Earth's surface environment was generally devoid of free O2, except possibly in localized regions of high productivity in the surface ocean. In Stage II, which may have lasted for less than 150 Ma, the atmosphere and surface ocean were oxidizing, while the deep ocean remained anoxic. In Stage III, which commenced with the disappearance of banded iron formations around 1.85 Ga ago and has lasted until the present, all three surface reservoirs contained appreciable amounts of free O2. Recent and not-so-recent controversies regarding the abundance of oxygen in the Archean atmosphere are identified and discussed. The rate of O2 increase during the Middle and Late Proterozoic is identified as another outstanding question.

  15. Metal-Matrix Composites and Porous Materials: Constitute Models, Microstructure Evolution and Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Castafieda, P

    2000-01-01

    Constitutive models were developed and implemented numerically to account for the evolution of microstructure and anisotropy in finite-deformation processes involving porous and composite materials...

  16. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  17. Historical shoreline changes along the US Gulf of Mexico: A summary of recent shoreline comparisons and analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.; Miller, T.; Moore, L.

    2005-01-01

    The US Geological Survey is systematically analyzing historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the United States. This National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project is developing standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that internally consistent updates can periodically be made to record coastal erosion and land loss along US shores. Recently, shoreline change maps and a report were published for states bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Long-term and short-term average rates of change were calculated by comparing three historical shorelines (1800s, 1930s, 1970s) with an operational mean high water shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) surveys (post-1998). The rates of change, statistical uncertainties, original shorelines, and complementary geographic information system layers, such as areas of beach nourishment, are available on an Internet Map Server (IMS). For the Gulf of Mexico region, rates of erosion are generally highest in Louisiana along barrier island and headland shores associated with the Mississippi delta. Erosion also is rapid along some barrier islands and headlands in Texas, whereas barrier islands in Mississippi are migrating laterally. Highest rates of erosion in Florida are generally localized around tidal inlets. The most stable Gulf beaches generally are along the west coast of Florida, where low wave energy and frequent beach nourishment minimize erosion. Some long beach segments in Texas have accreted as a result of net longshore drift convergence and around tidal inlets that have been stabilized by long jetties. Individuals and some communities have attempted to mitigate the effects of erosion by emplacement of coastal structures, but those efforts largely have been abandoned in favor of periodic beach nourishment.

  18. Beans (Phaseolus ssp. as a Model for Understanding Crop Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Bitocchi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the most significant outcomes in the literature regarding the origin of Phaseolus genus, the geographical distribution of the wild species, the domestication process, and the wide spread out of the centers of origin. Phaseolus can be considered as a unique model for the study of crop evolution, and in particular, for an understanding of the convergent phenotypic evolution that occurred under domestication. The almost unique situation that characterizes the Phaseolus genus is that five of its ∼70 species have been domesticated (i.e., Phaseolus vulgaris, P. coccineus, P. dumosus, P. acutifolius, and P. lunatus, and in addition, for P. vulgaris and P. lunatus, the wild forms are distributed in both Mesoamerica and South America, where at least two independent and isolated episodes of domestication occurred. Thus, at least seven independent domestication events occurred, which provides the possibility to unravel the genetic basis of the domestication process not only among species of the same genus, but also between gene pools within the same species. Along with this, other interesting features makes Phaseolus crops very useful in the study of evolution, including: (i their recent divergence, and the high level of collinearity and synteny among their genomes; (ii their different breeding systems and life history traits, from annual and autogamous, to perennial and allogamous; and (iii their adaptation to different environments, not only in their centers of origin, but also out of the Americas, following their introduction and wide spread through different countries. In particular for P. vulgaris this resulted in the breaking of the spatial isolation of the Mesoamerican and Andean gene pools, which allowed spontaneous hybridization, thus increasing of the possibility of novel genotypes and phenotypes. This knowledge that is associated to the genetic resources that have been

  19. Beans (Phaseolus ssp.) as a Model for Understanding Crop Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitocchi, Elena; Rau, Domenico; Bellucci, Elisa; Rodriguez, Monica; Murgia, Maria L.; Gioia, Tania; Santo, Debora; Nanni, Laura; Attene, Giovanna; Papa, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the most significant outcomes in the literature regarding the origin of Phaseolus genus, the geographical distribution of the wild species, the domestication process, and the wide spread out of the centers of origin. Phaseolus can be considered as a unique model for the study of crop evolution, and in particular, for an understanding of the convergent phenotypic evolution that occurred under domestication. The almost unique situation that characterizes the Phaseolus genus is that five of its ∼70 species have been domesticated (i.e., Phaseolus vulgaris, P. coccineus, P. dumosus, P. acutifolius, and P. lunatus), and in addition, for P. vulgaris and P. lunatus, the wild forms are distributed in both Mesoamerica and South America, where at least two independent and isolated episodes of domestication occurred. Thus, at least seven independent domestication events occurred, which provides the possibility to unravel the genetic basis of the domestication process not only among species of the same genus, but also between gene pools within the same species. Along with this, other interesting features makes Phaseolus crops very useful in the study of evolution, including: (i) their recent divergence, and the high level of collinearity and synteny among their genomes; (ii) their different breeding systems and life history traits, from annual and autogamous, to perennial and allogamous; and (iii) their adaptation to different environments, not only in their centers of origin, but also out of the Americas, following their introduction and wide spread through different countries. In particular for P. vulgaris this resulted in the breaking of the spatial isolation of the Mesoamerican and Andean gene pools, which allowed spontaneous hybridization, thus increasing of the possibility of novel genotypes and phenotypes. This knowledge that is associated to the genetic resources that have been conserved ex situ and in

  20. Gene finding with a hidden Markov model of genome structure and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hein, Jotun

    2003-01-01

    the model are linear in alignment length and genome number. The model is applied to the problem of gene finding. The benefit of modelling sequence evolution is demonstrated both in a range of simulations and on a set of orthologous human/mouse gene pairs. AVAILABILITY: Free availability over the Internet...... annotation. The modelling of evolution by the existing comparative gene finders leaves room for improvement. Results: A probabilistic model of both genome structure and evolution is designed. This type of model is called an Evolutionary Hidden Markov Model (EHMM), being composed of an HMM and a set of region...

  1. Evolution and History in a new "Mathematical SETI" model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maccone, Claudio

    2014-01-01

    In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15]) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17]), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a single mathematical scheme. This model is based on exponentials and lognormal probability distributions, called "b-lognormals" if they start at any positive time b ("birth") larger than zero. Indeed: Darwinian evolution theory may be regarded as a part of SETI theory in that the factor fl in the Drake equation represents the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually arose, as it happened on Earth. In 2008 (Maccone, 2008 [9]) this author firstly provided a statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. This fact is a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the product of a number of independent random variables whose probability densities are unknown and independent of each other approached the lognormal distribution if the number of factors is increased at will, i.e. it approaches infinity. Also, in Maccone (2011 [15]), it was shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormal distributions constrained between the time axis and the exponential growth curve. This was a brand-new result. And one more new and far-reaching idea was to define Darwinian Evolution as a particular realization of a stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) having the above exponential as its own mean value curve. The b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being, let it be a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization. In Maccone, (2012 [17, Chapters 6, 7, 8 and 11]), as well as in the present paper, we give

  2. TESTING MODELS OF MAGNETIC FIELD EVOLUTION OF NEUTRON STARS WITH THE STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF THEIR SPIN EVOLUTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shuangnan; Xie Yi

    2012-01-01

    We test models for the evolution of neutron star (NS) magnetic fields (B). Our model for the evolution of the NS spin is taken from an analysis of pulsar timing noise presented by Hobbs et al.. We first test the standard model of a pulsar's magnetosphere in which B does not change with time and magnetic dipole radiation is assumed to dominate the pulsar's spin-down. We find that this model fails to predict both the magnitudes and signs of the second derivatives of the spin frequencies (ν-double dot). We then construct a phenomenological model of the evolution of B, which contains a long-term decay (LTD) modulated by short-term oscillations; a pulsar's spin is thus modified by its B-evolution. We find that an exponential LTD is not favored by the observed statistical properties of ν-double dot for young pulsars and fails to explain the fact that ν-double dot is negative for roughly half of the old pulsars. A simple power-law LTD can explain all the observed statistical properties of ν-double dot. Finally, we discuss some physical implications of our results to models of the B-decay of NSs and suggest reliable determination of the true ages of many young NSs is needed, in order to constrain further the physical mechanisms of their B-decay. Our model can be further tested with the measured evolutions of ν-dot and ν-double dot for an individual pulsar; the decay index, oscillation amplitude, and period can also be determined this way for the pulsar.

  3. Noble Gases And Changing Models Of Mantle Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, C. J.; van Keken, P. E.; Porcelli, D.; Hauri, E. H.

    2003-04-01

    The noble gas isotopes recorded in Ocean Island Basalts (OIB) and Mid Ocean Ridge Basalts (MORB) combined with an estimate of ^3He concentration in the upper mantle have played a defining role in the development of models describing the geochemical evolution of the mantle. The three most cited noble gas constraints on a layered mantle system are the Heat/He discrepancy, 40Ar mass balance, and low ^3He concentration (relative to U+Th) in the upper mantle. These are all equally dependant on the validity of integrating the mantle ^3He flux into the oceans (t_frac{1}{2} ˜ 10^3 years) with the record of ocean floor generation (t_frac{1}{2} ˜ 5x10^6 years) to obtain the mantle ^3He concentration. A ^3He concentration 3.5 times higher in the mantle than currently accepted removes these noble gas constraints. A deep reservoir would then no longer be required to: i) trap ^4He produced by U+Th decay but let the associated heat escape; ii) provide a reservoir for the 'missing' 40Ar generated by K decay; and iii) provide a flux of ^3He to balance the ^3He/^4He ratio and U+Th content of the upper mantle. Numerical models simulating whole mantle convection show that natural fluctuations in the Heat/He ratio due to different extraction methods can accommodate the difference between predicted and observed values, while these same models illustrate that the efficiency of mantle 40Ar degassing is low enough to account for the 'missing' 40Ar within the context of whole mantle convection. The simple observation that ^3He/^4He ratios in OIB are higher than MORB nevertheless demands that there is a high ^3He reservoir in the mantle and that the model 'zero paradox' concentration remains the upper limit reference value. While higher upper mantle ^3He concentrations remove the need for a layer at the 670km boundary, mantle models satisfying the noble gases must still provide a system that separates radiogenic Heat from Helium production, preserves a region of the mantle with higher 40Ar

  4. Molecular modeling of the microstructure evolution during carbon fiber processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Saaketh; Li, Chunyu; Shen, Tongtong; Strachan, Alejandro

    2017-12-01

    The rational design of carbon fibers with desired properties requires quantitative relationships between the processing conditions, microstructure, and resulting properties. We developed a molecular model that combines kinetic Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics techniques to predict the microstructure evolution during the processes of carbonization and graphitization of polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based carbon fibers. The model accurately predicts the cross-sectional microstructure of the fibers with the molecular structure of the stabilized PAN fibers and physics-based chemical reaction rates as the only inputs. The resulting structures exhibit key features observed in electron microcopy studies such as curved graphitic sheets and hairpin structures. In addition, computed X-ray diffraction patterns are in good agreement with experiments. We predict the transverse moduli of the resulting fibers between 1 GPa and 5 GPa, in good agreement with experimental results for high modulus fibers and slightly lower than those of high-strength fibers. The transverse modulus is governed by sliding between graphitic sheets, and the relatively low value for the predicted microstructures can be attributed to their perfect longitudinal texture. Finally, the simulations provide insight into the relationships between chemical kinetics and the final microstructure; we observe that high reaction rates result in porous structures with lower moduli.

  5. A simple model for research interest evolution patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Tao; Wang, Dashun; Szymanski, Boleslaw

    Sir Isaac Newton supposedly remarked that in his scientific career he was like ``...a boy playing on the sea-shore ...finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary''. His remarkable modesty and famous understatement motivate us to seek regularities in how scientists shift their research focus as the career develops. Indeed, despite intensive investigations on how microscopic factors, such as incentives and risks, would influence a scientist's choice of research agenda, little is known on the macroscopic patterns in the research interest change undertaken by individual scientists throughout their careers. Here we make use of over 14,000 authors' publication records in physics. By quantifying statistical characteristics in the interest evolution, we model scientific research as a random walk, which reproduces patterns in individuals' careers observed empirically. Despite myriad of factors that shape and influence individual choices of research subjects, we identified regularities in this dynamical process that are well captured by a simple statistical model. The results advance our understanding of scientists' behaviors during their careers and open up avenues for future studies in the science of science.

  6. Orchestrated structure evolution: modeling growth-regulated nanomanufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbasi, Shaghayegh; Boehringer, Karl F [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States); Kitayaporn, Sathana; Schwartz, Daniel T, E-mail: karlb@washington.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States)

    2011-04-22

    Orchestrated structure evolution (OSE) is a scalable manufacturing method that combines the advantages of top-down (tool-directed) and bottom-up (self-propagating) approaches. The method consists of a seed patterning step that defines where material nucleates, followed by a growth step that merges seeded islands into the final patterned thin film. We develop a model to predict the completed pattern based on a computationally efficient approximate Green's function solution of the diffusion equation plus a Voronoi diagram based approach that defines the final grain boundary structure. Experimental results rely on electron beam lithography to pattern the seeds, followed by the mass transfer limited growth of copper via electrodeposition. The seed growth model is compared with experimental results to quantify nearest neighbor seed-to-seed interactions as well as how seeds interact with the pattern boundary to impact the local growth rate. Seed-to-seed and seed-to-pattern interactions are shown to result in overgrowth of seeds on edges and corners of the shape, where seeds have fewer neighbors. We explore how local changes to the seed location can be used to improve the patterning quality without increasing the manufacturing cost. OSE is shown to enable a unique set of trade-offs between the cost, time, and quality of thin film patterning.

  7. Extracting 5m Shorelines From Multi-Temporal Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapadia, A.; Jordahl, K. A.; Kington, J. D., IV

    2016-12-01

    Planet operates the largest Earth observing constellation of satellites, collecting imagery at an unprecedented temporal resolution. While daily cadence is expected in early 2017, Planet has already imaged the majority of landmass several dozen times over the past year. The current dataset provides enough value to build and test algorithms to automatically extract information. Here we demonstrate the extraction of shorelines across California using image stacks. The method implemented uses as input an uncalibrated RGB data product and limited NIR combined with the National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD2011) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to extract shorelines at 5 meter resolution. In the near future these methods along with daily cadence of imagery will allow for temporal monitoring of shorelines on a global scale.

  8. An integrated approach to shoreline mapping for spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; LeBlanc, S.R.; Percy, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A desktop mapping package was introduced which has the capability to provide consistent and standardized application of mapping and data collection/generation techniques. Its application in oil spill cleanup was discussed. The data base can be updated easily as new information becomes available. This provides a response team with access to a wide range of information that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. Standard terms and definitions and shoreline segmentation procedures are part of the system to describe the shore-zone character and shore-zone oiling conditions. The program that is in place for Atlantic Canada involves the integration of (1) Environment Canada's SCAT methodology in pre-spill data generation, (2) shoreline segmentation, (3) response management by objectives, (4) Environment Canada's national sensitivity mapping program, and (5) Environment Canada's field guide for the protection and treatment of oiled shorelines. 7 refs., 6 figs

  9. A Physically Based Coupled Chemical and Physical Weathering Model for Simulating Soilscape Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willgoose, G. R.; Welivitiya, D.; Hancock, G. R.

    2015-12-01

    A critical missing link in existing landscape evolution models is a dynamic soil evolution models where soils co-evolve with the landform. Work by the authors over the last decade has demonstrated a computationally manageable model for soil profile evolution (soilscape evolution) based on physical weathering. For chemical weathering it is clear that full geochemistry models such as CrunchFlow and PHREEQC are too computationally intensive to be couplable to existing soilscape and landscape evolution models. This paper presents a simplification of CrunchFlow chemistry and physics that makes the task feasible, and generalises it for hillslope geomorphology applications. Results from this simplified model will be compared with field data for soil pedogenesis. Other researchers have previously proposed a number of very simple weathering functions (e.g. exponential, humped, reverse exponential) as conceptual models of the in-profile weathering process. The paper will show that all of these functions are possible for specific combinations of in-soil environmental, geochemical and geologic conditions, and the presentation will outline the key variables controlling which of these conceptual models can be realistic models of in-profile processes and under what conditions. The presentation will finish by discussing the coupling of this model with a physical weathering model, and will show sample results from our SSSPAM soilscape evolution model to illustrate the implications of including chemical weathering in the soilscape evolution model.

  10. Evaluation of nourishment schemes based on long-term morphological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunnet, Nicholas; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils

    2012-01-01

    A recently developed long-term morphological modeling concept is applied to evaluate the impact of nourishment schemes. The concept combines detailed two-dimensional morphological models and simple one-line models for the coastline evolution and is particularly well suited for long-term simulatio...... site. This study strongly indicates that the hybrid model may be used as an engineering tool to predict shoreline response following the implementation of a nourishment project....

  11. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2017-09-25

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

  12. A Process Model of Partnership Evolution Around New IT Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Timo; Salmivalli, Lauri; Salmela, Hannu; Vahtera, Annukka

    Prior research on inter-organizational information systems has focused primarily on dyadic network relationships, where agreements about information exchange are made between two organizations. The focus of this research is on the processes through which IT decisions are made within larger inter-organizational networks with several network parties. The research draws from network theories in organization science to identify three alternative mechanisms for making network level commitments: contracts, rules and values. In addition, theoretical concepts are searched from dynamic network models, which identify different cycles and stages in network evolution. The empirical research was conducted in two networks. The first one comprises of four municipalities which began collaboration in the deployment of IT in early childhood education (ECE). The second network involves a case where several organizations, both private and public, initiated a joint effort to implement a national level electronic prescription system (EPS). The frameworks and concepts drawn from organizational theories are used to explain success of the first case and the failure of the latter case. The paper contributes to prior IOS research by providing a new theory-based framework for the analysis of early stages of building organizational networks around innovative IT initiatives.

  13. Enrichment of Zinc in Galactic Chemodynamical Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirai, Yutaka; Saitoh, Takayuki R.; Ishimaru, Yuhri; Wanajo, Shinya

    2018-03-01

    The heaviest iron-peak element Zinc (Zn) has been used as an important tracer of cosmic chemical evolution. Spectroscopic observations of the metal-poor stars in Local Group galaxies show an increasing trend of [Zn/Fe] ratios toward lower metallicity. However, the enrichment of Zn in galaxies is not well understood due to poor knowledge of astrophysical sites of Zn, as well as metal mixing in galaxies. Here we show possible explanations for the observed trend by taking into account electron-capture supernovae (ECSNe) as one of the sources of Zn in our chemodynamical simulations of dwarf galaxies. We find that the ejecta from ECSNe contribute to stars with [Zn/Fe] ≳ 0.5. We also find that scatters of [Zn/Fe] in higher metallicities originate from the ejecta of type Ia supernovae. On the other hand, it appears difficult to explain the observed trends if we do not consider ECSNe as a source of Zn. These results come from an inhomogeneous spatial metallicity distribution due to the inefficiency of the metal mixing. We find that the optimal value of the scaling factor for the metal diffusion coefficient is ∼0.01 in the shear-based metal mixing model in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations. These results suggest that ECSNe could be one of the contributors of the enrichment of Zn in galaxies.

  14. Numerical modelling of the atmospheric mixing-layer diurnal evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molnary, L. de.

    1990-03-01

    This paper introduce a numeric procedure to determine the temporal evolution of the height, potential temperature and mixing ratio in the atmospheric mixing layer. The time and spatial derivatives were evaluated via forward in time scheme to predict the local evolution of the mixing-layer parameters, and a forward in time, upstream in space scheme to predict the evolution of the mixing-layer over a flat region with a one-dimensional advection component. The surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were expressed using a simple sine wave that is function of the hour day and kind of the surface (water or country). (author) [pt

  15. Model to the evolution of the organic matter in the pampa's soil. Relation with cultivation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriulo, Adrian; Mary, Bruno; Guerif, Jerome; Balesdent, Jerome

    1996-08-01

    The objective of the work is to present a model to describe the evolution of the organic matter in soils of the Argentine's pampa. This model can be utilised to evaluate the evolution of the soil's fertility in the agricultural production at this moment. Three kinds of assay were done. The determination of organic carbon made possible to prove the Henin-Dupuis model and a derived model

  16. Teachers' Curriculum Guide to the Hayward Shoreline, K-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachle, Leo; And Others

    This teaching guide gives environmental education ideas for grades K-12. The field trips and activities all relate to the Hayward shoreline of the San Francisco, California, Bay. Included in the guide are 44 science activities, 15 social science activities, and 18 humanities activities. Each activity description gives the experience level, site…

  17. Chromian spinel-rich black sands from eastern shoreline of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Black sands rich in chromian spinel commonly occur in pockets along the eastern shoreline of Andaman. Island where various types of peridotites and volcanics belonging to the Andaman ophiolite suite are exposed in close vicinity. The chemistry of these detrital chromian spinels has been extensively used here.

  18. Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... coastal environment and affected the socio-economic life of local populations, threatened cultural heritage and hindered coastal tourism development. This paper assessed the extent of shoreline recession and its effects on buildings and infrastructure along Ghana's coastline through a study of the Nkontompo Community ...

  19. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Changes in Bonny Island ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the shoreline changes over time in Bonny Island of Rivers State, Nigeria. Satellite images comprising of Landsat TM of 30m by 30m of 1986, 2001, 2003 and 2006; and Nigersat image of 30m by 30m of 2004 were used as the sources of data. The satellite images underwent series of geo-processing.

  20. Chromian spinel-rich black sands from eastern shoreline of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Black sands rich in chromian spinel commonly occur in pockets along the eastern shoreline of Andaman Island where various types of peridotites and volcanics belonging to the Andaman ophiolite suite are exposed in close vicinity. The chemistry of these detrital chromian spinels has been extensively used here in ...

  1. Brownian model of transcriptome evolution and phylogenetic network visualization between tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xun; Ruan, Hang; Su, Zhixi; Zou, Yangyun

    2017-09-01

    While phylogenetic analysis of transcriptomes of the same tissue is usually congruent with the species tree, the controversy emerges when multiple tissues are included, that is, whether species from the same tissue are clustered together, or different tissues from the same species are clustered together. Recent studies have suggested that phylogenetic network approach may shed some lights on our understanding of multi-tissue transcriptome evolution; yet the underlying evolutionary mechanism remains unclear. In this paper we develop a Brownian-based model of transcriptome evolution under the phylogenetic network that can statistically distinguish between the patterns of species-clustering and tissue-clustering. Our model can be used as a null hypothesis (neutral transcriptome evolution) for testing any correlation in tissue evolution, can be applied to cancer transcriptome evolution to study whether two tumors of an individual appeared independently or via metastasis, and can be useful to detect convergent evolution at the transcriptional level. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    The influence of offshore wind farms on the wave conditions and impact on shoreline development is studied in a generic set-up of a coast and a shoreline. The objective was to estimate the impact of a typical sized offshore wind farm on a shoreline in a high wave energetic environment. Especially...

  3. 77 FR 56671 - Draft Shoreline Restoration Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement for Indiana Dunes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-13

    ...; 6065-4000-409] Draft Shoreline Restoration Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement for...., Section 4332(2)(c), the National Park Service announces the availability of the Draft Shoreline.... DATES: The Draft Shoreline Restoration Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement (SRMP) will be...

  4. Monitoring shoreline change using remote sensing and GIS: a case study of Kunduchi area, Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Makota, V.; Sallema, R.; Mahika, C.

    2004-01-01

    Data from aerial photographs taken in 1981, 1992 and 2002 of the Kunduchi shoreline off the Dar es Salaam coast were integrated in a geographic information system (GIS) to determine shoreline change in that locality. It was found that considerable changes have taken place, and that the two techniques are effective for shoreline monitoring.

  5. 75 FR 10865 - Shoreline Management Initiative, Reservoirs in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-09

    ... Compliance, Environment and Technology, Tennessee Valley Authority, 400 West Summit Hill Drive, WT 11D... linear feet of shoreline for private water use access rights and opening 6,036 linear feet of shoreline access rights to private landowners has yielded a net gain of 1,077 linear feet of shoreline closed to...

  6. Mapping shorelines to subpixel accuracy using Landsat imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abileah, Ron; Vignudelli, Stefano; Scozzari, Andrea

    2013-04-01

    A promising method to accurately map the shoreline of oceans, lakes, reservoirs, and rivers is proposed and verified in this work. The method is applied to multispectral satellite imagery in two stages. The first stage is a classification of each image pixel into land/water categories using the conventional 'dark pixel' method. The approach presented here, makes use of a single shortwave IR image band (SWIR), if available. It is well known that SWIR has the least water leaving radiance and relatively little sensitivity to water pollutants and suspended sediments. It is generally the darkest (over water) and most reliable single band for land-water discrimination. The boundary of the water cover map determined in stage 1 underestimates the water cover and often misses the true shoreline by a quantity up to one pixel. A more accurate shoreline would be obtained by connecting the center point of pixels with exactly 50-50 mix of water and land. Then, stage 2 finds the 50-50 mix points. According to the method proposed, image data is interpolated and up-sampled to ten times the original resolution. The local gradient in radiance is used to find the direction to the shore, thus searching along that path for the interpolated pixel closest to a 50-50 mix. Landsat images with 30m resolution, processed by this method, may thus provide the shoreline accurate to 3m. Compared to similar approaches available in the literature, the method proposed discriminates sub-pixels crossed by the shoreline by using a criteria based on the absolute value of radiance, rather than its gradient. Preliminary experimentation of the algorithm shows that 10m resolution accuracy is easily achieved and in some cases is often better than 5m. The proposed method can be used to study long term shoreline changes by exploiting the 30 years of archived world-wide coverage Landsat imagery. Landsat imagery is free and easily accessible for downloading. Some applications that exploit the Landsat dataset and

  7. An evaluation of geochemical models of bentonite pore water evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savage, D.; Watson, C.E.; Wilson, J.C.; Arthur, R.C.; Stroemberg, B.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. The understanding of the evolution of bentonite pore water composition with time underpins many EBS issues, such as: buffer erosion; canister corrosion; radionuclide solubility, sorption, diffusion; and plays a vital, if indirect, role in safety assessment. Models of bentonite-water interactions usually consider cation exchange, clay edge surface reactions, and the hydrolysis of calcite, gypsum, and quartz. Clay hydrolysis is usually ignored, which means that clay is assumed to be preserved indefinitely, even over million-year timescales. Unfortunately, this is contrary to evidence from natural systems, which indicates that smectites may be destroyed over safety-relevant timescales. Here, we present an alternative model that incorporates clay hydrolysis reactions, and which has been tested against laboratory data where Eh and pH have been measured directly in compacted bentonite. Simulations of 'end-point' pH measurements in batch bentonite-water slurry experiments showed different pH values according to the complexity of the system studied. The most complete system investigated (clay hydrolysis + cation exchange + trace mineral solubility + clay edge reactions) revealed pH values were a strong function of CO 2 (g) partial pressure, with pH increasing with decreasing pCO 2 (log pCO 2 values from -3.5 to -7.5 bars produced pH values from 7.9 to 9.6). A slightly less complex system excluding clay mineral hydrolysis produced essentially identical pH values ranging across the same values of pCO 2 . Therefore these 'end-point' calculations showed that the inclusion of clay mineral hydrolysis has an insignificant impact upon calculated pore fluid pH. Other simulations investigating disequilibrium between clay and pore fluid in lab squeezing cell tests with water (pH = 9.0) or a 1 M NaOH solution (pH = 12.1) ignored the presence of trace minerals, clay cation exchange, and clay edge reactions in the

  8. Comparison of 2-3D convection models with parameterized thermal evolution models: Application to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiriet, M.; Plesa, A. C.; Breuer, D.; Michaut, C.

    2017-12-01

    To model the thermal evolution of terrestrial planets, 1D parametrized models are often used as 2 or 3D mantle convection codes are very time-consuming. In these parameterized models, scaling laws that describe the convective heat transfer rate as a function of the convective parameters are derived from 2-3D steady state convection models. However, so far there has been no comprehensive comparison whether they can be applied to model the thermal evolution of a cooling planet. Here we compare 2D and 3D thermal evolution models in the stagnant lid regime with 1D parametrized models and use parameters representing the cooling of the Martian mantle. For the 1D parameterized models, we use the approach of Grasset and Parmentier (1998) and treat the stagnant lid and the convecting layer separately. In the convecting layer, the scaling law for a fluid with constant viscosity is valid with Nu (Ra/Rac) ?, with Rac the critical Rayleigh number at which the thermal boundary layers (TBL) - top or bottom - destabilize. ? varies between 1/3 and 1/4 depending on the heating mode and previous studies have proposed intermediate values of b 0.28-0.32 according to their model set-up. The base of the stagnant lid is defined by the temperature at which the mantle viscosity has increased by a factor of 10; it thus depends on the rate of viscosity change with temperature multiplied by a factor? , whose value appears to vary depending on the geometry and convection conditions. In applying Monte Carlo simulations, we search for the best fit to temperature profiles and heat flux using three free parameters, i.e. ? of the upper TBL, ? and the Rac of the lower TBL. We find that depending on the definition of the stagnant lid thickness in the 2-3D models several combinations of ? and ? for the upper TBL can retrieve suitable fits. E.g. combinations of ? = 0.329 and ? = 2.19 but also ? = 0.295 and ? = 2.97 are possible; Rac of the lower TBL is 10 for all best fits. The results show that

  9. Behavior and persistence of spilled oil on shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, J.

    1991-01-01

    Recent oil spills have re-demonstrated the range of shoreline impacts that are possible from medium to large spills in the United States, i.e., the Exxon Valdez spill which significantly contaminated over 1000 km of shoreline in Alaska and the Mega Borg, which resulted in widely scattered tar balls over a small area. Immediate and total removal of stranded oil should not always be the primary objective. Instead, shoreline cleanup strategies developed for oil spills need to consider the persistence and short- to long-term persistence of stranded oil. There are several general guidelines on the persistence of stranded oil. High-energy shorelines are rapidly and effectively cleaned by natural processes, although there are micro-environments where oil tends to persist (wave shadows, supratidal zone, rock crevices, etc.). On sand and mixed sand and gravel beaches, oil tends to be buried below clean layers of sediment, but erosional/depositional cycles will result in oil removal, usually within one year. In sheltered environments (wetlands, tidal flats) oil will persist for long periods; therefore, oil removal is frequently required, though it is usually poorly implemented. Cobble/boulder beaches, while usually very complex, present a special problem. They can be found in a range of energy settings, with years between periods of storm activity. These beaches can hold large volumes of oil; they can be a source of long-term (> one year) leaching and sheening; subsurface oil is very difficult to remove by surface treatment methods; and they have poorly understood sedimentation patterns, so it is difficult to predict rates of sediment reworking. Studies of recent oil spills have shown a need for shoreline-specific technologies for these types of beaches

  10. Petrologic Modeling of Magmatic Evolution in The Elysium Volcanic Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, D.; Karunatillake, S.; Hood, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Elysium Volcanic Province (EVP) on Mars is a massive expanse of land made up of many hundreds of lava flows of various ages1. The variable surface ages within this volcanic province have distinct elemental compositions based on the derived values from the Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) suite2. Without seismic data or ophiolite sequences on Mars, the compositions of lavas on the surface provide some of the only information to study the properties of the interior of the planet. The Amazonian surface age and isolated nature of the EVP in the northern lowlands of Mars make it ideal for analyzing the mantle beneath Elysium during the most recent geologic era on Mars. The MELTS algorithm is one of the most commonly used programs for simulating compositions and mineral phases of basaltic melt crystallization3. It has been used extensively for both terrestrial applications4 and for other planetary bodies3,5. The pMELTS calibration of the algorithm allows for higher pressure (10-30 kbars) regimes, and is more appropriate for modeling melt compositions and equilibrium conditions for a source within the martian mantle. We use the pMELTS program to model how partial melting of the martian mantle could evolve magmas into the surface compositions derived from the GRS instrument, and how the mantle beneath Elysium has changed over time. We attribute changes to lithospheric loading by long term, episodic volcanism within the EVP throughout its history. 1. Vaucher, J. et al. The volcanic history of central Elysium Planitia: Implications for martian magmatism. Icarus 204, 418-442 (2009). 2. Susko, D. et al. A record of igneous evolution in Elysium, a major martian volcanic province. Scientific Reports 7, 43177 (2017). 3. El Maarry, M. R. et al. Gamma-ray constraints on the chemical composition of the martian surface in the Tharsis region: A signature of partial melting of the mantle? Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 185, 116-122 (2009). 4. Ding, S. & Dasgupta, R. The

  11. Diploid biological evolution models with general smooth fitness landscapes and recombination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B; Kirakosyan, Zara; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2008-06-01

    Using a Hamilton-Jacobi equation approach, we obtain analytic equations for steady-state population distributions and mean fitness functions for Crow-Kimura and Eigen-type diploid biological evolution models with general smooth hypergeometric fitness landscapes. Our numerical solutions of diploid biological evolution models confirm the analytic equations obtained. We also study the parallel diploid model for the simple case of recombination and calculate the variance of distribution, which is consistent with numerical results.

  12. Long term morphological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf; Taaning, Martin

    2010-01-01

    in the surf zone. Two parameterization schemes are tested for two different morphological phenomena: 1) Shoreline changes due to the presence of coastal structures and 2) alongshore migration of a nearshore nourishment and a bar by-passing a harbour. In the case of the shoreline evolution calculations...

  13. Predictive modelling of post-harvest quality evolution in perishables, applied to mushrooms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukasse, L.J.S.; Polderdijk, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    A large number of models on post-harvest quality evolution of perishables is available. Yet the number of applications is limited. The most common application is the comparison of shelf-life predictions for different constant temperature scenarios. Application of post-harvest quality evolution

  14. 2D Modelling of Mechanical Stress Evolution and Electromigration in Confined Aluminium Interconnects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrescu, V.; Mouthaan, A.J.

    1997-01-01

    A complete description for mechanical stress evolution and electromigration in confined Al interconnects, taking into account the microstructure features, is presented in this paper. In the last years there were proposed several 1D models for the time-dependent evolution of the mechanical stress in

  15. Quantifying offshore fore-arc deformation and splay-fault slip using drowned Pleistocene shorelines, Arauco Bay, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jara-Muñoz, Julius; Melnick, Daniel; Zambrano, Patricio; Rietbrock, Andreas; González, Javiera; Argandoña, Boris; Strecker, Manfred R.

    2017-06-01

    Most of the deformation associated with the seismic cycle in subduction zones occurs offshore and has been therefore difficult to quantify with direct observations at millennial timescales. Here we study millennial deformation associated with an active splay-fault system in the Arauco Bay area off south central Chile. We describe hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines using high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, geomorphic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic observations and quantify uplift rates using a Landscape Evolution Model. Along a margin-normal profile, uplift rates are 1.3 m/ka near the edge of the continental shelf, 1.5 m/ka at the emerged Santa María Island, -0.1 m/ka at the center of the Arauco Bay, and 0.3 m/ka in the mainland. The bathymetry images a complex pattern of folds and faults representing the surface expression of the crustal-scale Santa María splay-fault system. We modeled surface deformation using two different structural scenarios: deep-reaching normal faults and deep-reaching reverse faults with shallow extensional structures. Our preferred model comprises a blind reverse fault extending from 3 km depth down to the plate interface at 16 km that slips at a rate between 3.0 and 3.7 m/ka. If all the splay-fault slip occurs during every great megathrust earthquake, with a recurrence of 150-200 years, the fault would slip 0.5 m per event, equivalent to a magnitude 6.4 earthquake. However, if the splay-fault slips only with a megathrust earthquake every 1000 years, the fault would slip 3.7 m per event, equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake.

  16. National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long

  17. Extent and degree of shoreline oiling: Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Gulf of Mexico, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Jacqueline; Owens, Edward H; Zengel, Scott; Graham, Andrew; Nixon, Zachary; Allard, Teresa; Holton, William; Reimer, P Doug; Lamarche, Alain; White, Mark; Rutherford, Nicolle; Childs, Carl; Mauseth, Gary; Challenger, Greg; Taylor, Elliott

    2013-01-01

    The oil from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico was documented by shoreline assessment teams as stranding on 1,773 km of shoreline. Beaches comprised 50.8%, marshes 44.9%, and other shoreline types 4.3% of the oiled shoreline. Shoreline cleanup activities were authorized on 660 km, or 73.3% of oiled beaches and up to 71 km, or 8.9% of oiled marshes and associated habitats. One year after the spill began, oil remained on 847 km; two years later, oil remained on 687 km, though at much lesser degrees of oiling. For example, shorelines characterized as heavily oiled went from a maximum of 360 km, to 22.4 km one year later, and to 6.4 km two years later. Shoreline cleanup has been conducted to meet habitat-specific cleanup endpoints and will continue until all oiled shoreline segments meet endpoints. The entire shoreline cleanup program has been managed under the Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Technique (SCAT) Program, which is a systematic, objective, and inclusive process to collect data on shoreline oiling conditions and support decision making on appropriate cleanup methods and endpoints. It was a particularly valuable and effective process during such a complex spill.

  18. The Jukes-Cantor Model of Molecular Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Keith

    2010-01-01

    The material in this module introduces students to some of the mathematical tools used to examine molecular evolution. This topic is standard fare in many mathematical biology or bioinformatics classes, but could also be suitable for classes in linear algebra or probability. While coursework in matrix algebra, Markov processes, Monte Carlo…

  19. Microstructure evolution during cyclic tests on EUROFER 97 at room temperature. TEM observation and modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Giordana, M. F.; Giroux, P. F.; Alvarez; Armas, I.; Sauzay, M.; Armas, A.; Kruml, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 550, JUL (2012), s. 103-111 ISSN 0921-5093 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : martensitic steels * softening behaviour * microstructural evolution * modelling Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 2.108, year: 2012

  20. Gas-evolution oscillators. 10. A model based on a delay equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bar-Eli, K.; Noyes, R.M. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)

    1992-09-17

    This paper develops a simplified method to model the behavior of a gas-evolution oscillator with two differential delay equations in two unknowns consisting of the population of dissolved molecules in solution and the pressure of the gas.

  1. Gas-evolution oscillators. 10. A model based on a delay equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bar-Eli, K.; Noyes, R.M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper develops a simplified method to model the behavior of a gas-evolution oscillator with two differential delay equations in two unknowns consisting of the population of dissolved molecules in solution and the pressure of the gas

  2. Models of Dispersal Evolution Highlight Several Important Issues in Evolutionary and Ecological Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M J

    2016-01-01

    Previous results showing that lack of information on local population density leads to higher emigration probabilities in unpredictable environments but to lower emigration probabilities in constant or highly predictable scenarios have recently been challenged by Poethke et al. By reimplementing both our model and that of Poethke and colleagues, we demonstrate that our original results indeed hold to the presented critiques and do not contradict previous findings. The comment by Poethke and colleagues does, however, present potentially intriguing results suggesting that negative density-dependent dispersal evolves under white noise for some model formulations. Here, through intermodel comparison, we seek to better understand the source of the differences in results obtained in our study and theirs. We conclude that the apparent negative density dependence reported by Poethke et al. is effectively density independence and that the shape of the reaction norm they obtain is a model artefact. Further, this response provides an opportunity to elaborate on some important issues in evolutionary and ecological modeling regarding (i) the importance of carefully considering different models' assumptions in comparisons among models, (ii) the need to consider the role of stochasticity and uncertainty when presenting and interpreting results from stochastic individual-based models, (iii) the adequate choice of the underlying ecological model that creates the selective pressures determining the evolution of behavioral reaction norms, and (iv) the appropriate choice of mutation models.

  3. Evolution dynamics modeling and simulation of logistics enterprise's core competence based on service innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo; Tong, Yuting

    2017-04-01

    With the rapid development of economy, the development of logistics enterprises in China is also facing a huge challenge, especially the logistics enterprises generally lack of core competitiveness, and service innovation awareness is not strong. Scholars in the process of studying the core competitiveness of logistics enterprises are mainly from the perspective of static stability, not from the perspective of dynamic evolution to explore. So the author analyzes the influencing factors and the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises, using the method of system dynamics to study the cause and effect of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, construct a system dynamics model of evolution of core competence logistics enterprises, which can be simulated by vensim PLE. The analysis for the effectiveness and sensitivity of simulation model indicates the model can be used as the fitting of the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises and reveal the process and mechanism of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, and provide management strategies for improving the core competence of logistics enterprises. The construction and operation of computer simulation model offers a kind of effective method for studying the evolution of logistics enterprise core competence.

  4. Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    REPORT Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY...NAMES AND ADDRESSES U.S. Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 15. SUBJECT TERMS AISI 1005, finite-element...Computational Modeling of Microstructural-Evolution in AISI 1005 Steel During Gas Metal Arc Butt Welding Report Title ABSTRACT A fully coupled (two-way

  5. Ups and Downs: Modeling the Visual Evolution of Fashion Trends with One-Class Collaborative Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    He, Ruining; McAuley, Julian

    2016-01-01

    Building a successful recommender system depends on understanding both the dimensions of people's preferences as well as their dynamics. In certain domains, such as fashion, modeling such preferences can be incredibly difficult, due to the need to simultaneously model the visual appearance of products as well as their evolution over time. The subtle semantics and non-linear dynamics of fashion evolution raise unique challenges especially considering the sparsity and large scale of the underly...

  6. Impacts of shoreline erosion on coastal ecosystems in Songkhla Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipaporn Chusrinuan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Songkhla Province is located on the eastern coast of the southern Thai Peninsula, bordering the Gulf of Thailand for approximately 107 km. Most of the basin’s foreshores have been extensively developed for housing, tourism and shrimp farming. The beaches are under deteriorating impacts, often causing sediment transport which leads to an unnaturally high erosion rate. This natural phenomenon is considered to be a critical problem in the coastal areas affected by the hazard of coastal infrastructure and reduced beach esthetics for recreation. In this study, shoreline changes were compared between 1975 and 2006 using aerial photographs and Landsat imageries using Geographic Information System (GIS. The results revealed that 18.5 km2 of the coastal areas were altered during the period. Of this, 17.3 km2 suffered erosion and 1.2 km2were subjected to accretion. The most significant changes occurred between 1975-2006. Shoreline erosion was found at Ban Paktrae, Ranot District, with an average erosion rate of 5.3 m/year, while accretion occurred at Laem Samila, MuangSongkhla District with an average accretion rate of 2.04 m/year. The occurrences of shoreline erosion have contributed to the degradation of coastal soil and water quality, destruction of beach and mangrove forests, loss of human settlements and livelihood.These processes have led to deterioration of the quality of life of the residents. Prevention and mitigation measures to lessen economic and social impacts due to shoreline erosion are discussed.

  7. Markovian and non-Markovian protein sequence evolution: aggregated Markov process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiol, Carolin; Goldman, Nick

    2011-08-26

    Over the years, there have been claims that evolution proceeds according to systematically different processes over different timescales and that protein evolution behaves in a non-Markovian manner. On the other hand, Markov models are fundamental to many applications in evolutionary studies. Apparent non-Markovian or time-dependent behavior has been attributed to influence of the genetic code at short timescales and dominance of physicochemical properties of the amino acids at long timescales. However, any long time period is simply the accumulation of many short time periods, and it remains unclear why evolution should appear to act systematically differently across the range of timescales studied. We show that the observed time-dependent behavior can be explained qualitatively by modeling protein sequence evolution as an aggregated Markov process (AMP): a time-homogeneous Markovian substitution model observed only at the level of the amino acids encoded by the protein-coding DNA sequence. The study of AMPs sheds new light on the relationship between amino acid-level and codon-level models of sequence evolution, and our results suggest that protein evolution should be modeled at the codon level rather than using amino acid substitution models. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The skill and style to model the evolution of resistance to pesticides and drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Resistance to pesticides and drugs led to the development of theoretical models aimed at identifying the main factors of resistance evolution and predicting the efficiency of resistance management strategies. We investigated the various ways in which the evolution of resistance has been modelled over the last three decades, by reviewing 187 articles published on models of the evolution of resistance to all major classes of pesticides and drugs. We found that (i) the technical properties of the model were most strongly influenced by the class of pesticide or drug and the target organism, (ii) the resistance management strategies studied were quite similar for the different classes of pesticides or drugs, except that the refuge strategy was mostly used in models of the evolution of resistance to insecticidal proteins, (iii) economic criteria were rarely used to evaluate the evolution of resistance and (iv) the influence of mutation, migration and drift on the speed of resistance development has been poorly investigated. We propose guidelines for the future development of theoretical models of the evolution of resistance. For instance, we stress the potential need to give more emphasis to the three evolutionary forces migration, mutation and genetic drift rather than simply selection.

  9. Anthropogenic currents and shoreline water quality in Avalon Bay, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Lin C; Litton, Rachel M; Grant, Stanley B

    2011-03-15

    Shoreline concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and fecal indicator viruses (FIV) in Avalon Bay (Catalina Island, California) display a marked diurnal pattern (higher at night and lower during the day) previously attributed to the tidal flux of sewage-contaminated groundwater and the tidal washing of contaminated sediments, coupled with light and dark die-off of FIB and FIV (Boehm, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43, 8046-8052). In this paper we document the existence of strong (peak velocities between 20 to 40 cm/s) transient currents in the nearshore waters of Avalon Bay that occur between 07:00 and 20:00 each day. These currents, which have a significant onshore component, are generated by anthropogenic activities in the Bay, including prop wash from local boat traffic and the docking practices of large passenger ferries. A budget analysis carried out on simultaneous measurements of FIB at two cross-shore locations indicates that anthropogenic currents contribute to the diurnal cycling of FIB concentrations along the shoreline, by transporting relatively unpolluted water from offshore toward the beach. The data and analysis presented in this paper support the idea that anthropogenic currents represent a significant, and previously overlooked, source of variability in shoreline water quality.

  10. Canadian coastal environments, shoreline processes, and oil spill cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1994-03-01

    The coastal zone is a dynamic environment, so that in developing practical and effective oil spill response strategies it is necessary to understand the forces that contribute to shore-zone processs. The coasts of Canada encompass a wide range of environments and are characterized by a variety of shoreline types that include the exposed, resistant cliffs of eastern Newfoundland and the sheltered marshes of the Beaufort Sea. A report is presented to provide an understanding of the dynamics and physical processes as they vary on the different coasts of Canada, including the Great Lakes. An outline of the general character and processes on a regional basis describes the coastal environments and introduces the literature that can be consulted for more specific information. The likely fate and persistence of oil that reaches the shoreline is discussed to provide the framework for development of spill response strategies and for the selection of appropriate shoreline cleanup or treatment countermeasures. Lessons learned from recent experience with major oil spills and field experiments are integrated into the discussion. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each of the four sections of this report. 502 refs., 5 figs

  11. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  12. Monitoring oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Harner, E.J.; Boehm, P.D.; Stoker, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Three types of shoreline monitoring programs were employed to evaluate the recovery of the ecological communities of Prince William Sound (PWS) shorelines after the oil spill: (a) Extensive shoreline surveys conducted (1989--1992) over much of the oiled shoreline to define extent of shoreline oiling and to assess biological conditions; (b) Detailed sampling in 1989 at nonrandomly chosen locations representing a range of oiling conditions (c) Comprehensive shoreline ecology program initiated in 1990 to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound using (1) a rigorous stratified random sampling study design with 64 sites representing 4 shoreline habitats and 4 oiling levels (unoiled, light, moderate, heavy); (2) periodic sampling at 12 nonrandomly chosen sites of particular concern. Biological communities were analyzed to detect differences due to oiling in each of 16 habitat/tide zone combinations. Following the spill, populations of all major species survived as sources for recolonization. Recruitment to oiled shores began in summer 1989. By 1990, shoreline biota in PWS had largely recovered. Estimates of shoreline recovery (biological community indistinguishable from reference) ranged from 91% based on univariate analysis of standard community parameters to 73% based on multivariate correspondence analysis

  13. Power Scaling of the Mainland Shoreline of the Atlantic Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasko, E.; Barton, C. C.; Geise, G. R.; Rizki, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The fractal dimension of the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast of the United Stated from Maine to Homestead, FL has been measured in 1000 km increments using the box-counting method. The shoreline analyzed is the NOAA Medium Resolution Shoreline (https://shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/medres.html). The shoreline was reconstituted into sequentially numbered X-Y coordinate points in UTM Zone 18N which are spaced 50 meters apart, as measured continuously along the shoreline. We created a MATLAB computer code to measure the fractal dimension by box counting while "walking" along the shoreline. The range of box sizes is 0.7 to 450 km. The fractal dimension ranges from 1.0 to1.5 along the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast. The fractal dimension is compared with beach particle sizes (bedrock outcrop, cobbles, pebbles, sand, clay), tidal range, rate of sea level rise, rate and direction of vertical crustal movement, and wave energy, looking for correlation with the measured fractal dimensions. The results show a correlation between high fractal dimensions (1.3 - 1.4) and tectonically emergent coasts, and low fractal dimensions (1.0 - 1.2) along submergent and stable coastal regions. Fractal dimension averages 1.3 along shorelines with shoreline protection structures such as seawalls, jetties, and groins.

  14. Gene finding with a hidden Markov model of genome structure and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hein, Jotun

    2003-01-01

    the model are linear in alignment length and genome number. The model is applied to the problem of gene finding. The benefit of modelling sequence evolution is demonstrated both in a range of simulations and on a set of orthologous human/mouse gene pairs. AVAILABILITY: Free availability over the Internet...

  15. Physical model of evolution of oxygen subsystem of PLZT-ceramics at neutron irradiation and annealing

    CERN Document Server

    Kulikov, D V; Trushin, Y V; Veber, K V; Khumer, K; Bitner, R; Shternberg, A R

    2001-01-01

    The physical model of evolution of the oxygen subsystem defects of the ferroelectric PLZT-ceramics by the neutron irradiation and isochrone annealing is proposed. The model accounts for the effect the lanthanum content on the material properties. The changes in the oxygen vacancies concentration, calculated by the proposed model, agree well with the polarization experimental behavior by the irradiated material annealing

  16. Testing gradual and speciational models of evolution in extant taxa: the example of ratites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laurin, M.; Gussekloo, S.W.S.; Marjanovic, D.; Legendre, L.; Cubo, J.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since Eldredge and Gould proposed their model of punctuated equilibria, evolutionary biologists have debated how often this model is the best description of nature and how important it is compared to the more gradual models of evolution expected from natural selection and the neo-Darwinian

  17. National assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Karen A. Ohman,; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2015-01-01

    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native communities, and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic, widespread, and may be accelerating, which threatens defense- and energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native communities. There is an increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes across the United States. To meet these national needs, the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is compiling existing reliable historical shoreline data along sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii under the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project (hereafter referred to as the "National Assessment project";http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/). A comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and rates of shoreline change for Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape, is presented in this report as part of the National Assessment project.

  18. Magnetic field of Mercury and models of thermal evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharpe, H.N.; Strangway, D.W.

    1976-01-01

    Recent planetary probes have performed in situ measurements of the magnetic fields of all the terrestrial planets. Consideration is given to the origin of these fields, with attention to the equilibrium-- condensation hypothesis for the formation of the solar system. In particular, it is shown that Mercury's present day magnetic field could have been acquired during or shortly after a cold accretion or that it could be due to a presently operating dynamo, resulting from a 'hot evolution'. Two parameters which would help to distinguish between these possibilities are the present-day surface heat flow and the moment of inertia

  19. Modeling evolution of crosstalk in noisy signal transduction networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareen, Ammar; Wingreen, Ned S.; Mukhopadhyay, Ranjan

    2018-02-01

    Signal transduction networks can form highly interconnected systems within cells due to crosstalk between constituent pathways. To better understand the evolutionary design principles underlying such networks, we study the evolution of crosstalk for two parallel signaling pathways that arise via gene duplication. We use a sequence-based evolutionary algorithm and evolve the network based on two physically motivated fitness functions related to information transmission. We find that one fitness function leads to a high degree of crosstalk while the other leads to pathway specificity. Our results offer insights on the relationship between network architecture and information transmission for noisy biomolecular networks.

  20. Trans gene regulation in adaptive evolution: a genetic algorithm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, N; Nanjundiah, V

    1997-09-21

    This is a continuation of earlier studies on the evolution of infinite populations of haploid genotypes within a genetic algorithm framework. We had previously explored the evolutionary consequences of the existence of indeterminate-"plastic"-loci, where a plastic locus had a finite probability in each generation of functioning (being switched "on") or not functioning (being switched "off"). The relative probabilities of the two outcomes were assigned on a stochastic basis. The present paper examines what happens when the transition probabilities are biased by the presence of regulatory genes. We find that under certain conditions regulatory genes can improve the adaptation of the population and speed up the rate of evolution (on occasion at the cost of lowering the degree of adaptation). Also, the existence of regulatory loci potentiates selection in favour of plasticity. There is a synergistic effect of regulatory genes on plastic alleles: the frequency of such alleles increases when regulatory loci are present. Thus, phenotypic selection alone can be a potentiating factor in a favour of better adaptation. Copyright 1997 Academic Press Limited.

  1. Modeling the Interrelationships among Pre-Service Science Teachers' Understanding and Acceptance of Evolution, Their Views on Nature of Science and Self-Efficacy Beliefs regarding Teaching Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyol, Gulsum; Tekkaya, Ceren; Sungur, Semra; Traynor, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This study proposed a path model of relationships among understanding and acceptance of evolution, views on nature of science, and self-efficacy beliefs regarding teaching evolution. A total of 415 pre-service science teachers completed a series of self-report instruments for the specified purpose. After the estimation of scale scores using…

  2. Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Nienhuis

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal dynamics or allogenic (external forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.

  3. Phase-field model and its numerical solution for coring and microstructure evolution studies in alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchi, Patrice E. A.; Fattebert, Jean-Luc; Dorr, Milo R.; Wickett, Michael E.; Belak, James F.

    2011-03-01

    We describe an algorithm for the numerical solution of a phase-field model (PFM) of microstructure evolution in alloys using physical parameters from thermodynamic (CALPHAD) and kinetic databases. The coupled system of PFM equations includes a local order parameter, a quaternion representation of local crystal orientation and a species composition parameter. Time evolution of microstructures and alloy composition is obtained using an implicit time integration of the system. Physical parameters in databases can be obtained either through experiment or first-principles calculations. Application to coring studies and microstructure evolution of Au-Ni will be presented. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344

  4. Operational shoreline mapping with high spatial resolution radar and geographic processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E; Chi, Zhaohui; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive mapping technology was developed utilizing standard image processing and available GIS procedures to automate shoreline identification and mapping from 2 m synthetic aperture radar (SAR) HH amplitude data. The development used four NASA Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data collections between summer 2009 and 2012 and a fall 2012 collection of wetlands dominantly fronted by vegetated shorelines along the Mississippi River Delta that are beset by severe storms, toxic releases, and relative sea-level rise. In comparison to shorelines interpreted from 0.3 m and 1 m orthophotography, the automated GIS 10 m alongshore sampling found SAR shoreline mapping accuracy to be ±2 m, well within the lower range of reported shoreline mapping accuracies. The high comparability was obtained even though water levels differed between the SAR and photography image pairs and included all shorelines regardless of complexity. The SAR mapping technology is highly repeatable and extendable to other SAR instruments with similar operational functionality.

  5. A pagerank-based preferential attachment model for the evolution of the world wide web

    OpenAIRE

    Giammatteo, P.; Donato, D.; Zlatic', V.; Caldarelli, G.

    2010-01-01

    We propose a model of network growth aimed at mimicking the evolution of the World Wide Web. To this purpose, we take as a key quantity, in the network evolution, the centrality or importance of a vertex as measured by its PageRank. Using a preferential attachment rule and a rewiring procedure based on this quantity, we can reproduce most of the topological properties of the system.

  6. An algebraic approach to solving evolution problems in some nonlinear quantum models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karassiov, Valery P.; Klimov, Andrei B.

    1994-01-01

    A new general Lie-algebraic approach is proposed to solve evolution problems in some nonlinear models of quantum physics with polynomially deformed Lie algebras su pd (2) as their dynamic symmetry algebras. The method makes use of an expansion of the evolution operators by power series in the su pd (2) shift operators and a (recursive) reduction of finding coefficient functions to solve auxiliary exactly solvable su(2) problems with quadratic Hamiltonians. ((orig.))

  7. Physical evolution in loop quantum cosmology: The example of the vacuum Bianchi I model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-Benito, Mercedes; Marugan, Guillermo A. Mena; Pawlowski, Tomasz

    2009-01-01

    We use the vacuum Bianchi I model as an example to investigate the concept of physical evolution in loop quantum cosmology (LQC) in the absence of the massless scalar field which has been used so far in the literature as an internal time. In order to retrieve the system dynamics when no such a suitable clock field is present, we explore different constructions of families of unitarily related partial observables. These observables are parametrized, respectively, by: (i) one of the components of the densitized triad, and (ii) its conjugate momentum; each of them playing the role of an evolution parameter. Exploiting the properties of the considered example, we investigate in detail the domains of applicability of each construction. In both cases the observables possess a neat physical interpretation only in an approximate sense. However, whereas in case (i) such interpretation is reasonably accurate only for a portion of the evolution of the universe, in case (ii) it remains so during all the evolution (at least in the physically interesting cases). The constructed families of observables are next used to describe the evolution of the Bianchi I universe. The performed analysis confirms the robustness of the bounces, also in absence of matter fields, as well as the preservation of the semiclassicality through them. The concept of evolution studied here and the presented construction of observables are applicable to a wide class of models in LQC, including quantizations of the Bianchi I model obtained with other prescriptions for the improved dynamics.

  8. Extraction of shoreline changes in Selangor coastal area using GIS and remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selamat, S. N.; Maulud, K. N. Abdul; Jaafar, O.; Ahmad, H.

    2017-05-01

    Nowadays, coastal zones are facing shoreline changes that stemming from natural and anthropogenic effect. The process of erosion and accretion will affect the physical environment of the shoreline. Therefore, the study of shoreline changes is important to identify the patterns of changes over time. The rapid growth of technology nowadays has facilitated the study of shoreline changes. Geographical Information System (GIS) alongside Remote Sensing (RS) technology is a useful tool to study these changes due to its ability to generate information, monitoring, analysis and prediction of the shoreline changes. Hence, the future projection of the trend for a specific coastal area can be done effectively. This study investigates the impact of shoreline changes to the community in Selangor area which mainly focus on the physical aspects. This study presents preliminary result using satellite image from SPOT 5 to identify the shoreline changes from the year 1984 to 2013 at Selangor coastal area. Extraction of shoreline from satellite image is vital to analyze the erosion and accretion along the shoreline area. This study shows that a shoreline change for the whole area is a categorized as a medium case. The total eroded and accretion of Selangor area from 1984 to 2013 is 2558 hectares and 2583 hectares respectively. As a result, Kapar, Jugra, Telok Panglima Garang and Kelanang are categorized as high risk erosion area. Shoreline changes analysis provides essential information to determine on the shoreline changes trends. Therefore, the results of this study can be used as essential information for conservation and preservation of coastal zone management.

  9. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-01-01

    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  10. Evolution of computational models in BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharm, Martin; Gebhardt, Tom; Touré, Vasundra; Bagnacani, Andrea; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Waltemath, Dagmar

    2018-04-12

    A useful model is one that is being (re)used. The development of a successful model does not finish with its publication. During reuse, models are being modified, i.e. expanded, corrected, and refined. Even small changes in the encoding of a model can, however, significantly affect its interpretation. Our motivation for the present study is to identify changes in models and make them transparent and traceable. We analysed 13734 models from BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository. For each model, we studied the frequencies and types of updates between its first and latest release. To demonstrate the impact of changes, we explored the history of a Repressilator model in BioModels Database. We observed continuous updates in the majority of models. Surprisingly, even the early models are still being modified. We furthermore detected that many updates target annotations, which improves the information one can gain from models. To support the analysis of changes in model repositories we developed MoSt, an online tool for visualisations of changes in models. The scripts used to generate the data and figures for this study are available from GitHub https://github.com/binfalse/BiVeS-StatsGenerator and as a Docker image at https://hub.docker.com/r/binfalse/bives-statsgenerator/ . The website https://most.bio.informatik.uni-rostock.de/ provides interactive access to model versions and their evolutionary statistics. The reuse of models is still impeded by a lack of trust and documentation. A detailed and transparent documentation of all aspects of the model, including its provenance, will improve this situation. Knowledge about a model's provenance can avoid the repetition of mistakes that others already faced. More insights are gained into how the system evolves from initial findings to a profound understanding. We argue that it is the responsibility of the maintainers of model repositories to offer transparent model provenance to their users.

  11. A Descriptive Model of Robot Team and the Dynamic Evolution of Robot Team Cooperation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen-min Tang

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available At present, the research on robot team cooperation is still in qualitative analysis phase and lacks the description model that can quantitatively describe the dynamical evolution of team cooperative relationships with constantly changeable task demand in Multi-robot field. First this paper whole and static describes organization model HWROM of robot team, then uses Markov course and Bayesian theorem for reference, dynamical describes the team cooperative relationships building. Finally from cooperative entity layer, ability layer and relative layer we research team formation and cooperative mechanism, and discuss how to optimize relative action sets during the evolution. The dynamic evolution model of robot team and cooperative relationships between robot teams proposed and described in this paper can not only generalize the robot team as a whole, but also depict the dynamic evolving process quantitatively. Users can also make the prediction of the cooperative relationship and the action of the robot team encountering new demands based on this model.

  12. A Descriptive Model of Robot Team and the Dynamic Evolution of Robot Team Cooperation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-qin Li

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available At present, the research on robot team cooperation is still in qualitative analysis phase and lacks the description model that can quantitatively describe the dynamical evolution of team cooperative relationships with constantly changeable task demand in Multi-robot field. First this paper whole and static describes organization model HWROM of robot team, then uses Markov course and Bayesian theorem for reference, dynamical describes the team cooperative relationships building. Finally from cooperative entity layer, ability layer and relative layer we research team formation and cooperative mechanism, and discuss how to optimize relative action sets during the evolution. The dynamic evolution model of robot team and cooperative relationships between robot teams proposed and described in this paper can not only generalize the robot team as a whole, but also depict the dynamic evolving process quantitatively. Users can also make the prediction of the cooperative relationship and the action of the robot team encountering new demands based on this model.

  13. Hybrid models for the simulation of microstructural evolution influenced by coupled, multiple physical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tikare, Veena [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez-Rivera, Efrain [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Madison, Jonathan D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Holm, Elizabeth Ann [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Patterson, Burton R. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering; Homer, Eric R. [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2013-09-01

    Most materials microstructural evolution processes progress with multiple processes occurring simultaneously. In this work, we have concentrated on the processes that are active in nuclear materials, in particular, nuclear fuels. These processes are coarsening, nucleation, differential diffusion, phase transformation, radiation-induced defect formation and swelling, often with temperature gradients present. All these couple and contribute to evolution that is unique to nuclear fuels and materials. Hybrid model that combines elements from the Potts Monte Carlo, phase-field models and others have been developed to address these multiple physical processes. These models are described and applied to several processes in this report. An important feature of the models developed are that they are coded as applications within SPPARKS, a Sandiadeveloped framework for simulation at the mesoscale of microstructural evolution processes by kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This makes these codes readily accessible and adaptable for future applications.

  14. Turn-based evolution in a simplified model of artistic creative process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlstedt, Palle

    2015-01-01

    Evolutionary computation has often been presented as a possible model for creativity in computers. In this paper, evolution is discussed in the light of a theoretical model of human artistic process, recently presented by the author. Some crucial differences between human artistic creativity...... and natural evolution are observed and discussed, also in the light of other creative processes occurring in nature. As a tractable way to overcome these limitations, a new kind of evolutionary implementation of creativity is proposed, based on a simplified version of the previously presented model...

  15. Evolution of oil trajectory, fate and impact assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.P.

    1998-01-01

    Oil fates and effects modelling may be used for a wide variety of purposes. Natural resource damage assessment is just one example role. Modelling is particularly useful for ecological risk assessment. Modelling allows quantification of potential impacts and probabilities of those impacts. The relative impacts of various spills can be used to focus response efforts. Maximum liabilities for accidental spills may be estimated. The results of various management strategies may be investigated. A model system may be used to educate the public about potential impacts of various spill scenarios. A number of oil trajectory and fates models are available around the world. However, fewer model developers have carried out the analysis to quantitatively address impacts of oil spills. This review focuses on the development of coupled oil fates and effects models. (author)

  16. Modeling the evolution of complex genetic systems: the gene network family tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierst, Janna L; Phillips, Patrick C

    2015-01-01

    In 1994 and 1996, Andreas Wagner introduced a novel model in two papers addressing the evolution of genetic regulatory networks. This work, and a suite of papers that followed using similar models, helped integrate network thinking into biology and motivate research focused on the evolution of genetic networks. The Wagner network has its mathematical roots in the Ising model, a statistical physics model describing the activity of atoms on a lattice, and in neural networks. These models have given rise to two branches of applications, one in physics and biology and one in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Here, we review development along these branches, outline similarities and differences between biological models of genetic regulatory circuits and neural circuits models used in machine learning, and identify ways in which these models can provide novel insights into biological systems. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Towards a phase field model of the microstructural evolution of duplex steel with experimental verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Stefan Othmar; Voorhees, P.W.; Lauridsen, Erik Mejdal

    2012-01-01

    A phase field model to study the microstructural evolution of a polycrystalline dual-phase material with conserved phase fraction has been implemented, and 2D simulations have been performed. For 2D simulations, the model predicts the cubic growth well-known for diffusion-controlled systems. Some...

  18. A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohmann, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Laepple, T.; Leduc, G.; Kim, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate

  19. Evolution models with lethal mutations on symmetric or random fitness landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirakosyan, Zara; Saakian, David B; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2010-07-01

    We calculate the mean fitness for evolution models, when the fitness is a function of the Hamming distance from a reference sequence, and there is a probability that this fitness is nullified (Eigen model case) or tends to the negative infinity (Crow-Kimura model case). We calculate the mean fitness of these models. The mean fitness is calculated also for the random fitnesses with logarithmic-normal distribution, reasonably describing sometimes the situation with RNA viruses.

  20. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    is composed of 4 submodels: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on an energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations...... groin, and a series of offshore breakwaters. The numerical model gave results in agreement with the measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively and reflected the physical concepts well for the selected conceptual cases....

  1. Epigenetics and Evolution: Transposons and the Stochastic Epigenetic Modification Model

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Branciamore; Andrei S. Rodin; Grigoriy Gogoshin; Arthur D. Riggs

    2015-01-01

    In addition to genetic variation, epigenetic variation and transposons can greatly affect the evolutionary fitnesses landscape and gene expression. Previously we proposed a mathematical treatment of a general epigenetic variation model that we called Stochastic Epigenetic Modification (SEM) model. In this study we follow up with a special case, the Transposon Silencing Model (TSM), with, once again, emphasis on quantitative treatment. We have investigated the evolutionary effects of epigeneti...

  2. Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

    2017-07-01

    Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

  3. On theoretical models of gene expression evolution with random genetic drift and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogasawara, Osamu; Okubo, Kousaku

    2009-11-20

    The relative contributions of natural selection and random genetic drift are a major source of debate in the study of gene expression evolution, which is hypothesized to serve as a bridge from molecular to phenotypic evolution. It has been suggested that the conflict between views is caused by the lack of a definite model of the neutral hypothesis, which can describe the long-run behavior of evolutionary change in mRNA abundance. Therefore previous studies have used inadequate analogies with the neutral prediction of other phenomena, such as amino acid or nucleotide sequence evolution, as the null hypothesis of their statistical inference. In this study, we introduced two novel theoretical models, one based on neutral drift and the other assuming natural selection, by focusing on a common property of the distribution of mRNA abundance among a variety of eukaryotic cells, which reflects the result of long-term evolution. Our results demonstrated that (1) our models can reproduce two independently found phenomena simultaneously: the time development of gene expression divergence and Zipf's law of the transcriptome; (2) cytological constraints can be explicitly formulated to describe long-term evolution; (3) the model assuming that natural selection optimized relative mRNA abundance was more consistent with previously published observations than the model of optimized absolute mRNA abundances. The models introduced in this study give a formulation of evolutionary change in the mRNA abundance of each gene as a stochastic process, on the basis of previously published observations. This model provides a foundation for interpreting observed data in studies of gene expression evolution, including identifying an adequate time scale for discriminating the effect of natural selection from that of random genetic drift of selectively neutral variations.

  4. Combined stellar evolution and atmospheric modeling of massive stars: implications for how stars evolve and die

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groh, Jose

    2015-08-01

    Our big picture of stellar evolution and the links between the different classes of massive stars is often built by comparing evolutionary models and observations. However, this comparison is far from trivial, in particular when the effects of mass loss are significant. To tackle this problem, we recently combined stellar evolution calculations using the Geneva code with atmospheric/wind CMFGEN modeling. For the first time, we determined the interior and spectroscopic evolution of massive stars from the zero-age main sequence to the pre-supernova stage. In this talk, I will discuss the spectroscopic evolution of massive stars at solar metallicity, the lifetimes of the different spectroscopic phases (e.g. O-type, RSG, BSG, LBV, WR), and how they are related to evolutionary phases (H-core burning, H-shell burning, He-core burning). I will also show how this is affected by mass loss at different stages of the evolution and the implications for our understanding of massive star evolution and death.

  5. Numerical modelling of damage evolution in ingot forging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Peter; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels Oluf

    2015-01-01

    The ingot forging process is numerically simulated applying both the Shima-Oyane porous plasticity model as a coupled damage model and the uncoupled normalized Cockcroft & Latham criterion. Four different cases including two different lower die angles (120º and 180º) and two different sizes of feed...

  6. A THERMAL EVOLUTION MODEL OF CENTAUR 10199 CHARIKLO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilbert-Lepoutre, A.

    2011-01-01

    Centaur 10199 Chariklo appears to have a varying spectral behavior. While three different spectral studies detect the presence of water ice at the surface, two more recent studies do not detect any absorption bands. In this article, we consider the possibility that Chariklo undergoes cometary activity that could be responsible for the observed spectral variations. We simulate its thermal evolution, finding that crystalline water ice should be present in the object core, and amorphous water ice should be found at the surface. Upon entering the inner solar system, Chariklo might experience some cometary activity due to ice crystallization if the obliquity is high, due to the adjustment of the internal structure to a new thermal equilibrium. No other activity is expected from this source, unless an external source like an impact provides the heat needed. In the case of such an event, we find that dust emitted in a coma is unlikely to be responsible for the observed spectral variations. In contrast, water ice grains in the coma would reproduce this pattern, meaning that the water ice detected after Chariklo's discovery was present in these grains and not on the object surface. Nonetheless, any activity would require an external additional heat source to be triggered, through an outburst, which might favor the spatial variations hypothesis.

  7. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  8. Medium-term erosion simulation of an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.R.; Willgoose, G.R.

    2000-01-01

    This study forms part of a collaborative project designed to validate the long-term erosion predictions of the SIBERIA landform evolution model on rehabilitated mine sites. The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms resulting from runoff and erosion over many years. SIBERIA needs to be calibrated before evaluating whether it correctly models the observed evolution of rehabilitated mine landforms. A field study to collect data to calibrate SIBERIA was conducted at the abandoned Scinto 6 uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The data were used to fit parameter values to a sediment loss model and a rainfall-runoff model. The derived runoff and erosion model parameter values were used in SIBERIA to simulate 50 years of erosion by concentrated flow on the batters of the abandoned site. The SIBERIA runs correctly simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The observed gully position, depth, volume, and morphology on the waste rock dump were quantitatively compared with the SIBERIA simulations. The close similarities between the observed and simulated gully features indicate that SIBERIA can accurately predict the rate of gully development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. SIBERIA is an appropriate model for assessment of erosional stability of rehabilitated mine sites over time spans of around 50 years. Copyright (2000) CSIRO Australia

  9. Size Evolution and Stochastic Models: Explaining Ostracod Size through Probabilistic Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, M.; Decker, S.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2014-12-01

    The biovolume of animals has functioned as an important benchmark for measuring evolution throughout geologic time. In our project, we examined the observed average body size of ostracods over time in order to understand the mechanism of size evolution in these marine organisms. The body size of ostracods has varied since the beginning of the Ordovician, where the first true ostracods appeared. We created a stochastic branching model to create possible evolutionary trees of ostracod size. Using stratigraphic ranges for ostracods compiled from over 750 genera in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology, we calculated overall speciation and extinction rates for our model. At each timestep in our model, new lineages can evolve or existing lineages can become extinct. Newly evolved lineages are assigned sizes based on their parent genera. We parameterized our model to generate neutral and directional changes in ostracod size to compare with the observed data. New sizes were chosen via a normal distribution, and the neutral model selected new sizes differentials centered on zero, allowing for an equal chance of larger or smaller ostracods at each speciation. Conversely, the directional model centered the distribution on a negative value, giving a larger chance of smaller ostracods. Our data strongly suggests that the overall direction of ostracod evolution has been following a model that directionally pushes mean ostracod size down, shying away from a neutral model. Our model was able to match the magnitude of size decrease. Our models had a constant linear decrease while the actual data had a much more rapid initial rate followed by a constant size. The nuance of the observed trends ultimately suggests a more complex method of size evolution. In conclusion, probabilistic methods can provide valuable insight into possible evolutionary mechanisms determining size evolution in ostracods.

  10. An evolution model of online social networks based on “Sina micro-blog”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG Xin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of online social networks and the necessity to sustain their rapid growth emphasize the importance to unravel the laws governing their evolution. With online data crawled from “Sina micro-blog”, we divide the entire users into opinion leaders and ordinary microbloggers without verification. This allows us to illustrate a quantitative two-layer model to reproduce the evolution of the online social networks from the birth of it, which is a visual framework for micro-blog users ′ behaviors. The empirical study of the model shows that the different influence between ordinary users and opinion leaders and the viral spreading mechanism and mass media influence govern the evolution of online social networks. At the end we verify the accuracy of our model with real “Sina micro-blog”dataset. Furthermore, considering the complexity of microbloggers, we can develop the information dissemination to show the mutual impact of various social values.

  11. Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

  12. Towards GLUE 2: evolution of the computing element information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreozzi, S.; Burke, S.; Field, L.; Kónya, B.

    2008-07-01

    A key advantage of Grid systems is the ability to share heterogeneous resources and services between traditional administrative and organizational domains. This ability enables virtual pools of resources to be created and assigned to groups of users. Resource awareness, the capability of users or user agents to have knowledge about the existence and state of resources, is required in order utilize the resource. This awareness requires a description of the services and resources typically defined via a community-agreed information model. One of the most popular information models, used by a number of Grid infrastructures, is the GLUE Schema, which provides a common language for describing Grid resources. Other approaches exist, however they follow different modeling strategies. The presence of different flavors of information models for Grid resources is a barrier for enabling inter-Grid interoperability. In order to solve this problem, the GLUE Working Group in the context of the Open Grid Forum was started. The purpose of the group is to oversee a major redesign of the GLUE Schema which should consider the successful modeling choices and flaws that have emerged from practical experience and modeling choices from other initiatives. In this paper, we present the status of the new model for describing computing resources as the first output from the working group with the aim of dissemination and soliciting feedback from the community.

  13. NARMAX model identification of a palm oil biodiesel engine using multi-objective optimization differential evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansor, Zakwan; Zakaria, Mohd Zakimi; Nor, Azuwir Mohd; Saad, Mohd Sazli; Ahmad, Robiah; Jamaluddin, Hishamuddin

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents the black-box modelling of palm oil biodiesel engine (POB) using multi-objective optimization differential evolution (MOODE) algorithm. Two objective functions are considered in the algorithm for optimization; minimizing the number of term of a model structure and minimizing the mean square error between actual and predicted outputs. The mathematical model used in this study to represent the POB system is nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with exogenous input (NARMAX) model. Finally, model validity tests are applied in order to validate the possible models that was obtained from MOODE algorithm and lead to select an optimal model.

  14. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  15. Towards GLUE2 evolution of the computing element information model

    CERN Document Server

    Andreozzi, S; Field, L; Kónya, B

    2008-01-01

    A key advantage of Grid systems is the ability to share heterogeneous resources and services between traditional administrative and organizational domains. This ability enables virtual pools of resources to be created and assigned to groups of users. Resource awareness, the capability of users or user agents to have knowledge about the existence and state of resources, is required in order utilize the resource. This awareness requires a description of the services and resources typically defined via a community-agreed information model. One of the most popular information models, used by a number of Grid infrastructures, is the GLUE Schema, which provides a common language for describing Grid resources. Other approaches exist, however they follow different modeling strategies. The presence of different flavors of information models for Grid resources is a barrier for enabling inter-Grid interoperability. In order to solve this problem, the GLUE Working Group in the context of the Open Grid Forum was started. ...

  16. Geomorphology and Landscape Evolution Model for the natural and human-impacted regions of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C.; Goodbred, S. L.; Wallace Auerbach, L.; Ahmed, K.; Paola, C.; Reitz, M. D.; Pickering, J.

    2013-12-01

    The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta (GBMD) in south Asia is generally considered a tide-dominated system, but much of the subaerial delta plain is geomorphically similar to river-dominated systems such as the Mississippi River delta, with a well-developed distributary network separated by low-lying, organic-rich interdistributary basins. By contrast, the lower GBMD is dominated by tidal processes and comprises a 100-km wide coastal plain with dense, interconnected tidal channels that are amalgamated to the seaward edge of the river-dominated portion of the delta. These distinct river- and tide-dominated geomorphic regions are simultaneously sustained by the enormous sediment load of the GBM rivers and its efficient dispersal via the distributary channel network and onshore advection by tides. Together these processes have resulted in the ability of the GBMD to keep pace with sea-level rise throughout the Holocene, with comparatively little shoreline transgression. However, topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) highlight low-lying regions of the delta that are located at the interface of the river- and tide-dominated portions of the delta, where the transport energy of small distributaries and the upper tidal zone go to zero. As a result, these are the most sediment-starved regions of the delta and those most at risk to flooding by the summer monsoon and storm surges. Compounding the slow rates of sedimentation and high local organic content, these regions have been strongly affected by the construction of embankments (polders) that artificially de-water the soils and accelerate organic decomposition during the dry season, and further starve the land surface of sediment. Here, we present an integrated conceptual model for the geomorphic evolution of the GBMD that incorporates river- and tide-dominated regions in conjunction with channel-avulsion processes and delta-lobe construction. Each of these is also overprinted by tectonic

  17. Mathematical modeling of the evolution of a simple biological system

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gonsalves, M.J.B.D.; Neetu, S.; Krishnan, K.P.; Attri, K.; LokaBharathi, P.A.

    Paula, Goa 403 004, India. Phone: +91 0832 2450624, Fax: +91 0832 2450606, e-mail: mjudith@nio.org Introduction In India, classroom education in biology does not generally include an exercise in which the data can be used to develop models.... This has hampered exposure to quantitative tools in biology, much to the disadvantage of students. The purpose of this note is to report an exercise we carried out to expose traditional biologists educated in India to mathematical modelling of biological...

  18. Standard cosmological evolution in the f(R) model to Kaluza-Klein cosmology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghmohammadi, A; Abolhassani, M R [Plasma Physics Research Center, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University of Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Saaidi, Kh; Vajdi, A [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Kurdistan, Pasdaran Ave., Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: agha35484@yahoo.com, E-mail: ksaaidi@uok.ac.ir, E-mail: mrhasani@modares.ac.ir, E-mail: Avajdi@uok.ac.ir

    2009-12-15

    In this paper, using f(R) theory of gravity we explicitly calculate cosmological evolution in the presence of a perfect fluid source in four- and five-dimensional space-time in which this cosmological evolution in self-creation is presented by Reddy et al (2009 Int. J. Theor. Phys. 48 10). An exact cosmological model is presented using a relation between Einstein's gravity field equation components due to a metric with the same component from f(R) theory of gravity. Some physics and kinematical properties of the model are also discussed.

  19. Managing shoreline assessment data during the Lake Wabamun incident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarche, A. [Environmental Performance and Decision Support, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Martin, V. [Eastern Canada Response Corp. Ltd., Vercheres, PQ (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    A freight train derailed near the shore of Lake Wabamun near Edmonton in August 2003, spilling about 750 m{sup 3} of heavy Bunker C oil on the lakeshore. The nature and extent of oiling was assessed over a period of 3 consecutive summers using a variety of techniques. Surface oiling along the shore was evaluated using the Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) approach, with some modifications to consider local conditions. Oiling conditions of the submerged tar ball oil in the shallow near shore waters was evaluated in the summer of 2006. Several computerized functions were developed in order to provide reports and maps of the submerged oil conditions, so that the treatment team could remove most of the oil before the next reed growing season. The location of all observations were recorded using GPS. Lake Wabamun includes the following along its shores: industry which uses the lake water for cooling purposes; a provincial park; a First-nations reservation; and private residences. Since all survey data was made available to the general public, it had to be detailed and easy to understand. This paper described how some of the data management issues were addressed within the framework of the shoreline assessment organization. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 13 figs.

  20. Radiation dates of holocene shorelines in Peninsula Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjia, H.D.; Kigoshi, K.

    1977-01-01

    Fifteen newly determined radiocarbon dates indicate the presence of former shorelines up to 3 meters above present high tide level in the tectonically stable Peninsula of Malaysia. The sea level indicators consist of oysters in growth position (9 samples), molluscs in beach deposits (2), corals in growth position (3), and beachrock (1). In the Peninsula living oysters occur up to or slightly above high tide, modern beach deposits may occur as high as 1.5 meters above high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that beachrock marks intertidal zones. Combined with seven previously published ages of raised shorelines in the region, strong evidence is presented for one or more high Holocene, eustatic sea level stands in the continental part of Southeast Asia. Periods of high sea levels occur between 2500 and 2900 yr BP, and between 4200 and 5700 yr BP. There is also some indication of high sea level between 8300 and 9500 yr BP. (author)

  1. Modeling viral genome fitness evolution associated with serial bottleneck events: evidence of stationary states of fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro, Ester; Escarmís, Cristina; Domingo, Esteban; Manrubia, Susanna C

    2002-09-01

    Evolution of fitness values upon replication of viral populations is strongly influenced by the size of the virus population that participates in the infections. While large population passages often result in fitness gains, repeated plaque-to-plaque transfers result in average fitness losses. Here we develop a numerical model that describes fitness evolution of viral clones subjected to serial bottleneck events. The model predicts a biphasic evolution of fitness values in that a period of exponential decrease is followed by a stationary state in which fitness values display large fluctuations around an average constant value. This biphasic evolution is in agreement with experimental results of serial plaque-to-plaque transfers carried out with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cell culture. The existence of a stationary phase of fitness values has been further documented by serial plaque-to-plaque transfers of FMDV clones that had reached very low relative fitness values. The statistical properties of the stationary state depend on several parameters of the model, such as the probability of advantageous versus deleterious mutations, initial fitness, and the number of replication rounds. In particular, the size of the bottleneck is critical for determining the trend of fitness evolution.

  2. On the Tidal Evolution of the Earth-Moon System: A Cosmological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbab A. I.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We have presented a cosmological model for the tidal evolution of the Earth-Moon system. We have found that the expansion of the universe has immense consequences on our local systems. The model can be compared with the present observational data. The close approach problem inflicting the known tidal theory is averted in this model. We have also shown that the astronomical and geological changes of our local systems are of the order of Hubble constant.

  3. Geochemical modelling study on the age and evolution of the groundwater at the Romuvaara site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitkaenen, P.; Vuorinen, U.; Leino-Forsman, H.; Snellman, M.

    1996-09-01

    The objective of the study was to interpret the processes and factors which control the hydrogeochemistry (e.g. pH and redox conditions) in the radioactive waste disposal environment. A model of the hydrogeochemical evolution and the chemical flowpaths in different parts of the bedrock at the Romuvaara (in Finland) site has been created. The significance of chemical reactions along different flowpaths is calculated. Furthermore, the consistency of the hydrogeochemical model and the hydrogeological model is examined. (107 refs.)

  4. Contributions of Actual and Simulated Satellite SAR Data for Substrate Type Differentiation and Shoreline Mapping in the Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Banks

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Detailed information on the land cover types present and the horizontal position of the land–water interface is needed for sensitive coastal ecosystems throughout the Arctic, both to establish baselines against which the impacts of climate change can be assessed and to inform response operations in the event of environmental emergencies such as oil spills. Previous work has demonstrated potential for accurate classification via fusion of optical and SAR data, though what contribution either makes to model accuracy is not well established, nor is it clear what shorelines can be classified using optical or SAR data alone. In this research, we evaluate the relative value of quad pol RADARSAT-2 and Landsat 5 data for shoreline mapping by individually excluding both datasets from Random Forest models used to classify images acquired over Nunavut, Canada. In anticipation of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM, we also simulate and evaluate dual and compact polarimetric imagery for shoreline mapping. Results show that SAR data is needed for accurate discrimination of substrates as user’s and producer’s accuracies were 5–24% higher for models constructed with quad pol RADARSAT-2 and DEM data than models constructed with Landsat 5 and DEM data. Models based on simulated RCM and DEM data achieved significantly lower overall accuracies (71–77% than models based on quad pol RADARSAT-2 and DEM data (80%, with Wetland and Tundra being most adversely affected. When classified together with Landsat 5 and DEM data, however, model accuracy was less affected by the SAR data type, with multiple polarizations and modes achieving independent overall accuracies within a range acceptable for operational mapping, at 89–91%. RCM is expected to contribute positively to ongoing efforts to monitor change and improve emergency preparedness throughout the Arctic.

  5. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.

    around the obstacles. The erosion rate is quantified by considering the likelihood of rock fracturing on topographic bumps. The model includes a statistical treatment of the bedrock weakness, which is neglected in previous quarrying models. Sliding rate, effective pressure, and average bedslope...... to escape the overdeepening, the average water pressure must rise, which keeps the effective pressure low and prevents the overdeepening from growing infinitely. In addition, the strong influence of effective pressure indicates that erosion rate depends strongly on ice thickness. This could associate...

  6. The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Fontanet, J.; López, C.; Fernández, E.

    2015-07-01

    The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)

  7. Rip Channels, Megacusps, and Shoreline Change: Measurements and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Second panel: C CDh i j x y ⎡ ⎤∂ ∂ +⎢ ⎥∂ ∂⎣ ⎦ . Third panel: asym asymhCu i hCv j⋅ + ⋅ . Bottom panel: hCu i hCv j...Second panel: C CDh i j x y ⎡ ⎤∂ ∂ +⎢ ⎥∂ ∂⎣ ⎦ . Third panel: asym asymu i hCv j⋅ + ⋅hC . Bottom panel: hCu i hCv j...vector flow fields as in Fig. 31. Top panel: hCu i hCv j⋅ + ⋅ . Second panel: C CDh i j x y ⎡ ⎤∂ ∂ +⎢ ⎥ . ∂ ∂⎣ ⎦ Third panel: asymhCu i hC asymv j

  8. Algorithm for dealing with depressions in dynamic landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2006-01-01

    Depressions in landscapes function as buffers for water and sediment. A landscape with depressions has less runoff, less erosion and more sedimentation than a landscape without depressions. Sinks in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be existing features that correctly represent depressions in

  9. Cancer evolution and immunity in a rat colorectal carcinogenesis model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vannucci, Luca; Fišerová, Anna; Horváth, Ondřej; Rossmann, Pavel; Mosca, F.; Pospíšil, Miloslav

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 25, - (2004), s. 973-981 ISSN 1019-6439 R&D Projects: GA ČR GV312/98/K034; GA AV ČR IAA7020006 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5020903 Keywords : cancer * cancer model * colorectal adenocarcinoma Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 3.056, year: 2004

  10. Biophysical Models of Evolution: Application to Transcription Factor Binding Sites in Yeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhart, Michael; Haldane, Allan; Morozov, Alexandre

    2012-02-01

    There has been growing interest in understanding the physical driving forces of evolution at the molecular scale, in particular how biophysics determines the fitness landscapes that shape the evolution of DNA and proteins. To that end we study a model of molecular evolution that explicitly incorporates the underlying biophysics. Using population genetics, we derive a steady-state distribution of monomorphic populations evolving on an arbitrary fitness landscape. Compared to previous studies, we find this result is universal for a large class of population models and fully incorporates both stochastic effects and strong natural selection. This distribution can then be used to infer the underlying fitness landscape from genomic data. This model can be applied to a variety of systems, but we focus on transcription factor binding sites, which play a crucial role in gene regulatory networks. Since these sites must be bound for successful gene regulation, we consider a simple thermodynamic model of fitness as a function of the free energy for binding a transcription factor at the site. Using empirical energy matrices and genome-wide sets of binding sites from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we use this model to infer the role of DNA-protein interaction physics in evolution.

  11. CoMET: A Mesquite package for comparing models of continuous character evolution on phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunghau Lee

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuously varying traits such as body size or gene expression level evolve during the history of species or gene lineages. To test hypotheses about the evolution of such traits, the maximum likelihood (ML method is often used. Here we introduce CoMET (Continuous-character Model Evaluation and Testing, which is module for Mesquite that automates likelihood computations for nine different models of trait evolution. Due to its few restrictions on input data, CoMET is applicable to testing a wide range of character evolution hypotheses. The CoMET homepage, which links to freely available software and more detailed usage instructions, is located at http://www.lifesci.ucsb.edu/eemb/labs/oakley/software/comet.htm.

  12. A Three-Dimensional Stochastic Model of DSD Evolution in Warm Rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat, O. P.; Barros, A. P.

    2005-12-01

    A 3D model for the resolution of the stochastic equation describing the evolution of the raindrop spectra is presented in this work. This model uses the Quadrature Method of Moments (QMOM) for the prediction of rainfall microstructure including coalescence, breakup, accretion, evaporation and condensation mechanisms. The stochastic equation is solved for the lower order moments of the Droplet Size Distribution. It is shown that the QMOM is able to capture the temporal evolution of DSD in warm rain. Results obtained with the QMOM approach will be compared with alternative formulations in terms of computational time and physical consistency. In addition, simulation results will be compared with experimental measurements in an attempt to better understand and quantify the dynamic of coalescence and breakup mechanisms in the evolution of raindrop spectra.

  13. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  14. Modelling the Evolution of a Passive Margin: Application to the Rockall Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithells, R. A.; Egan, S.; Clarke, S.; Kimbell, G.; Johnson, H.

    2012-12-01

    The Rockall Trough is one of the largest, relatively unexplored basins forming the North-East Atlantic passive margin and many aspects regarding the evolution of this basin remain unresolved. In part, this is due to the Paleocene lavas associated with the opening of the North Atlantic Margin and the Icelandic Hotspot which inhibit high resolution imaging of the underlying sediments and basement structure. The aim of this study is to apply numerical, lithosphere-scale models to the Rockall Trough in order to gain insights into the complex evolution of this passive margin basin. Model cross-sections of the basin have been produced in order to determine the interplay of geological, rheological and geodynamic processes that have controlled the evolution of the Rockall Basin. These models are used to test different hypotheses regarding the timing and nature of extensional and compressional events as well as the influence of thermal anomalies, and spatial and temporal variations in lithospheric rheology. Initial results demonstrate the importance of accurate controls on palaeobathymetry and the need to realistically account for varying basin fill sequences during different stages of the Rockall Trough's evolution. An analysis of available subsurface data has been undertaken to quantify the amount of stretching that has occurred during the evolution of the Rockall Trough. Additionally, analyses of composite well data have been used to generate subsidence curves for the basin, which highlight key episodes of anomalous subsidence. The main event highlighted by the subsidence curves is a major deepening event which occurred during the Eocene Epoch. These curves are compared to modelled subsidence curves in order to test the validity of the structural and geodynamic scenarios that have been modelled. Further validation of the model results has been carried out by comparing regional gravitational anomaly data with theoretical gravity anomalies calculated from the model

  15. The fluvial evolution of the Holocene Nile Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, B. T.; Sturt, F.; Wilson, P.; Rowland, J.; Brown, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The evolution of the Nile Delta, the largest delta system in the Mediterranean Sea, has both high palaeoenvironmental and archaeological significance. A dynamic model of the landscape evolution of this delta system is presented for the period c.8000-4500 cal BP. Analysis of sedimentary data and chronostratigraphic information contained within 1640 borehole records has allowed for a redefinition of the internal stratigraphy of the Holocene delta, and the construction of a four-dimensional landscape model for the delta's evolution through time. The mid-Holocene environmental evolution is characterised by a transition from an earlier set of spatially varied landscapes dominated by swampy marshland, to better-drained, more uniform floodplain environments. Archaeologically important Pleistocene inliers in the form of sandy hills protruding above the delta plain surface (known as "turtlebacks"), also became smaller as the delta plain continued to aggrade, while the shoreline and coastal zone prograded north. These changes were forced by a decrease in the rate of relative sea-level rise under high rates of sediment-supply. This dynamic environmental evolution needs to be integrated within any discussion of the contemporary developments in the social sphere, which culminated in the emergence of the Ancient Egyptian State c.5050 cal BP.

  16. Soil erosion and deposition in the new shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaolei; Nilsson, Christer; Pilotto, Francesca; Liu, Songping; Shi, Shaohua; Zeng, Bo

    2017-12-01

    During the last few decades, the construction of storage reservoirs worldwide has led to the formation of many new shorelines in former upland areas. After the formation of such shorelines, a dynamic phase of soil erosion and deposition follows. We explored the factors regulating soil dynamics in the shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River in China. We selected four study sites on the main stem and three on the tributaries in the upstream parts of the reservoir, and evaluated whether the sites close to the backwater tail (the point at which the river meets the reservoir) had more soil deposition than the sites far from the backwater tail. We also tested whether soil erosion differed between the main stem and the tributaries and across shorelines. We found that soil deposition in the new shorelines was higher close to the backwater tail and decreased downstream. Soil erosion was higher in the main stem than in the tributaries and higher at lower compared to higher shoreline altitudes. In the tributaries, erosion did not differ between higher and lower shoreline levels. Erosion increased with increasing fetch length, inundation duration and distance from the backwater tail, and decreased with increasing soil particle fineness. Our results provide a basis for identifying shorelines in need of restorative or protective measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. COMPARISON OF TWO SIMPLIFICATION METHODS FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM DIGITAL ORTHOPHOTO IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  18. Comparison of Two Simplification Methods for Shoreline Extraction from Digital Orthophoto Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Sen, A.; Selbesoglu, M. O.; Vārna, I.; Petersons, P.; Aykut, N. O.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  19. TOXICITY TRENDS DURING AN OIL SPILL BIOREMEDIATION EXPERIMENT ON A SANDY SHORELINE IN DELAWARE, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    A 13-week, refereed, inter-agency toxicity testing program involving five bioassay methods was used to document the effectiveness of shoreline bioremediation to accelerate toxicity reduction of an oiled sandy shoreline at Fowler Beach, Delaware, USA. The study was part of an inte...

  20. Oil characterization and distribution in shoreline sediments of Pensacola Bay, Florida following the Deepwater Horizon spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrier islands of Northwest Florida were heavily oiled during the Deepwater Horizon spill, but less is known about the impacts to the shorelines of the associated estuaries. Shoreline sediment oiling was investigated at 18 sites within the Pensacola Bay, Florida system prior to...

  1. Inferring autogenically induced depositional discontinuities from observations on experimental deltaic shoreline trajectories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mikes, D.; ten Veen, J.H.; Postma, G.; Steel, Ronald

    2015-01-01

    Palaeo shoreline is a commonly used proxy for palaeo sea level, but only if deposition is continuous and constant will shoreline trajectory T(l) completely capture sea-level time-series E(t). Artificial deltas were generated in the Eurotank flume facility under stepwise tectonic subsidence, periodic

  2. Two and three-dimensional shoreline behaviour at a MESO-MACROTIDAL barred beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-01-01

    The present work investigates cross-shore shoreline migration as well as its alongshore variability (with deformation) on timescales of days to years using 6 years of time-averaged video images. The variability of the shoreline is estimated through empirical statistical methods with comprehensive

  3. LHCb: The Evolution of the LHCb Grid Computing Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Arrabito, L; Bouvet, D; Cattaneo, M; Charpentier, P; Clarke, P; Closier, J; Franchini, P; Graciani, R; Lanciotti, E; Mendez, V; Perazzini, S; Nandkumar, R; Remenska, D; Roiser, S; Romanovskiy, V; Santinelli, R; Stagni, F; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Ubeda Garcia, M; Vedaee, A; Zhelezov, A

    2012-01-01

    The increase of luminosity in the LHC during its second year of operation (2011) was achieved by delivering more protons per bunch and increasing the number of bunches. Taking advantage of these changed conditions, LHCb ran with a higher pileup as well as a much larger charm physics introducing a bigger event size and processing times. These changes led to shortages in the offline distributed data processing resources, an increased need of cpu capacity by a factor 2 for reconstruction, higher storage needs at T1 sites by 70\\% and subsequently problems with data throughput for file access from the storage elements. To accommodate these changes the online running conditions and the Computing Model for offline data processing had to be adapted accordingly. This paper describes the changes implemented for the offline data processing on the Grid, relaxing the Monarc model in a first step and going beyond it subsequently. It further describes other operational issues discovered and solved during 2011, present the ...

  4. A mechanistic model for the evolution of multicellularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amado, André; Batista, Carlos; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2018-02-01

    Through a mechanistic approach we investigate the formation of aggregates of variable sizes, accounting mechanisms of aggregation, dissociation, death and reproduction. In our model, cells can produce two metabolites, but the simultaneous production of both metabolites is costly in terms of fitness. Thus, the formation of larger groups can favor the aggregates to evolve to a configuration where division of labor arises. It is assumed that the states of the cells in a group are those that maximize organismal fitness. In the model it is considered that the groups can grow linearly, forming a chain, or compactly keeping a roughly spherical shape. Starting from a population consisting of single-celled organisms, we observe the formation of groups with variable sizes and usually much larger than two-cell aggregates. Natural selection can favor the formation of large groups, which allows the system to achieve new and larger fitness maxima.

  5. The Use of Evolution in a Central Action Selection Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Montes-Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of effective central selection provides flexibility in design by offering modularity and extensibility. In earlier papers we have focused on the development of a simple centralized selection mechanism. Our current goal is to integrate evolutionary methods in the design of non-sequential behaviours and the tuning of specific parameters of the selection model. The foraging behaviour of an animal robot (animat has been modelled in order to integrate the sensory information from the robot to perform selection that is nearly optimized by the use of genetic algorithms. In this paper we present how selection through optimization finally arranges the pattern of presented behaviours for the foraging task. Hence, the execution of specific parts in a behavioural pattern may be ruled out by the tuning of these parameters. Furthermore, the intensive use of colour segmentation from a colour camera for locating a cylinder sets a burden on the calculations carried out by the genetic algorithm.

  6. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan B. Djordjevic

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which

  7. The Evolution of the Roskilde Model in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anders Siig; Wulf-Andersen, Trine Østergaard; Heilesen, Simon

    2015-01-01

    For four decades, teaching at Roskilde University has been based on a research-active curriculum (Healey and Jenkins 2009, 122) mainstreaming research-based learning for all undergraduates and graduates. Problem-oriented project learning (PPL) is the cornerstone of a university-wide system...... work with a concrete example. The article also outline two different approaches to innovate using the Roskilde model of PPL....

  8. Epigenetics and Evolution: Transposons and the Stochastic Epigenetic Modification Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Branciamore

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In addition to genetic variation, epigenetic variation and transposons can greatly affect the evolutionary fitnesses landscape and gene expression. Previously we proposed a mathematical treatment of a general epigenetic variation model that we called Stochastic Epigenetic Modification (SEM model. In this study we follow up with a special case, the Transposon Silencing Model (TSM, with, once again, emphasis on quantitative treatment. We have investigated the evolutionary effects of epigenetic changes due to transposon (T insertions; in particular, we have considered a typical gene locus A and postulated that (i the expression level of gene A depends on the epigenetic state (active or inactive of a cis- located transposon element T, (ii stochastic variability in the epigenetic silencing of T occurs only in a short window of opportunity during development, (iii the epigenetic state is then stable during further development, and (iv the epigenetic memory is fully reset at each generation. We develop the model using two complementary approaches: a standard analytical population genetics framework (di usion equations and Monte-Carlo simulations. Both approaches led to similar estimates for the probability of fixation and time of fixation of locus TA with initial frequency P in a randomly mating diploid population of effective size Ne. We have ascertained the e ect that ρ, the probability of transposon Modification during the developmental window, has on the population (species. One of our principal conclusions is that as ρ increases, the pattern of fixation of the combined TA locus goes from "neutral" to "dominant" to "over-dominant". We observe that, under realistic values of ρ, epigenetic Modifications can provide an e cient mechanism for more rapid fixation of transposons and cis-located gene alleles. The results obtained suggest that epigenetic silencing, even if strictly transient (being reset at each generation, can still have signi cant

  9. A Population Classification Evolution Algorithm for the Parameter Extraction of Solar Cell Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiqun Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To quickly and precisely extract the parameters for solar cell models, inspired by simplified bird mating optimizer (SBMO, a new optimization technology referred to as population classification evolution (PCE is proposed. PCE divides the population into two groups, elite and ordinary, to reach a better compromise between exploitation and exploration. For the evolution of elite individuals, we adopt the idea of parthenogenesis in nature to afford a fast exploitation. For the evolution of ordinary individuals, we adopt an effective differential evolution strategy and a random movement of small probability is added to strengthen the ability to jump out of a local optimum, which affords a fast exploration. The proposed PCE is first estimated on 13 classic benchmark functions. The experimental results demonstrate that PCE yields the best results on 11 functions by comparing it with six evolutional algorithms. Then, PCE is applied to extract the parameters for solar cell models, that is, the single diode and the double diode. The experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed PCE is superior when comparing it with other optimization algorithms for parameter identification. Moreover, PCE is tested using three different sources of data with good accuracy.

  10. Evidence for the prepattern/cooption model of vertebrate jaw evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerny, Robert; Cattell, Maria; Sauka-Spengler, Tatjana; Bronner-Fraser, Marianne; Yu, Feiqiao; Medeiros, Daniel Meulemans

    2010-10-05

    The appearance of jaws was a turning point in vertebrate evolution because it allowed primitive vertebrates to capture and process large, motile prey. The vertebrate jaw consists of separate dorsal and ventral skeletal elements connected by a joint. How this structure evolved from the unjointed gill bar of a jawless ancestor is an unresolved question in vertebrate evolution. To understand the developmental bases of this evolutionary transition, we examined the expression of 12 genes involved in vertebrate pharyngeal patterning in the modern jawless fish lamprey. We find nested expression of Dlx genes, as well as combinatorial expression of Msx, Hand and Gsc genes along the dorso-ventral (DV) axis of the lamprey pharynx, indicating gnathostome-type pharyngeal patterning evolved before the appearance of the jaw. In addition, we find that Bapx and Gdf5/6/7, key regulators of joint formation in gnathostomes, are not expressed in the lamprey first arch, whereas Barx, which is absent from the intermediate first arch in gnathostomes, marks this domain in lamprey. Taken together, these data support a new scenario for jaw evolution in which incorporation of Bapx and Gdf5/6/7 into a preexisting DV patterning program drove the evolution of the jaw by altering the identity of intermediate first-arch chondrocytes. We present this "Pre-pattern/Cooption" model as an alternative to current models linking the evolution of the jaw to the de novo appearance of sophisticated pharyngeal DV patterning.

  11. Modeling evolution of karst aquifer from one-dimension to three-dimension: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suri, Syaran; Zabidi, Hareyani; Ahmad, Fauziah

    2017-10-01

    Karst region representing 7-12% of the earth's continental areas and 25% of world population is either completely or partially dependent on water from karst aquifer for drinking. Fresh water supply is expected to be a major problem in this century due to high demand from industrial needs and domestics usage. Contamination is a natural risk to the groundwater in the karst aquifer due to the characteristics of karstified host rock itself. The main process contributes to karst unique is the dissolution of bedrock by slightly acidic water. This review is aiming to provide a better understanding of the early evolution of karst aquifer numerical models. This paper also discussed the influence of several parameters on the genesis of karst evolution. We investigate on different conceptual models of karst aquifer and how they translated into numerical models from basic 1-Dimension model to complex 3-Dimension models. We also study the differing complexity and hence differing data requirements to model the complex nature of subsurface karst aquifer. The limitations in current karst evolution models and challenges in terms of data availability are also discussed. Finally, we provide new research direction and suggestions for achieving better prediction model.

  12. Technical know-how for the investigation and modelling of topographic evolution for site characterisation - 59171

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doke, Ryosuke; Yasue, Ken-ichi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Nakayasu, Akio

    2012-01-01

    Geological hazard assessments are being used to make important decisions relevant to nuclear facilities such as a repository for deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. With respect to such repositories, topographic evolution is a key issue for description of the long-term evolution of a groundwater flow characteristics in time spans of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The construction of topographic evolution models is complex, involving tacit knowledge and working processes. Therefore, it is important to externalise, that is to explicitly present the tacit knowledge and decision-making processes used by experts in the model building unambiguously, with thorough documentation and to provide key knowledge to support planning and implementation of investigations. In this study, documentation of the technical know-how used for the construction of a topographic evolution model is demonstrated. The process followed in the construction of the model is illustrated using task-flow logic diagrams; the process involves four main tasks with several sub-tasks. The task-flow followed for an investigation to estimate uplift rates linked to the task-flow for the modelling of topographic evolution is also illustrated. In addition, the decision-making processes in the investigation are expressed in logical IF-THEN format for each task. Based on the documented technical know-how, an IT-based Expert System was constructed. In future work, it is necessary to analyse the knowledge, including the management of uncertainties in the modelling and investigations, and to integrate fundamental ideas for managing uncertainties with expert system. (authors)

  13. New tools and technologies to manage operational data and help in decision-making concerning shoreline pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouriou, V.; Quintin, K.; Legrand, S.; Mazurier, A.; Le Junter, Y.; Gicquel, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addressed the issue of effectively collecting and organizing all data related to an oil spill. It referred to lessons learned from the Erika and Prestige oil spills which polluted the French coastal waters. A user-friendly tool for data management and storage for shoreline pollution was developed following the 2 incidents. The tool was developed under the auspices of the Argepol project and has helped response teams and decision-makers use web technologies and interactive cartography to access, capture and make use of data about shoreline landings, collected waste, disposed waste, manpower, equipment requirements, evolution of the spill and cleaning. The tool has allowed maximum flexibility regarding connections and possible adaptations to other systems, particularly foreign ones. A prototype was tested and validated by simulating an exercise involving the marine pollution (POLMAR) response teams. The tool allows users to create and edit geographical information online, modify databases and shore information using a web browser. Improvements are still in progress and regular updates are scheduled in order to keep the tool in use for the long term. 11 refs., 6 figs

  14. Cosmological evolution in a two-brane warped geometry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Kumar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We study an effective 4-dimensional scalar–tensor field theory, originated from an underlying brane–bulk warped geometry, to explore the scenario of inflation. It is shown that the inflaton potential naturally emerges from the radion energy–momentum tensor which in turn results in an inflationary model of the Universe on the visible brane that is consistent with the recent results from the Planck's experiment. The dynamics of modulus stabilization from the inflaton rolling condition is demonstrated. The implications of our results in the context of recent BICEP2 results are also discussed.

  15. Evolution of animal models in cancer vaccine development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei-Zen; Jones, Richard F; Juhasz, Csaba; Gibson, Heather; Veenstra, Jesse

    2015-12-16

    Advances in cancer vaccine development are facilitated by animal models reflecting key features of human cancer and its interface with host immunity. Several series of transplantable preneoplastic and neoplastic mouse mammary lesions have been used to delineate mechanisms of anti-tumor immunity. Mimicking immune tolerance to tumor-associated antigens (TAA) such as HER2/neu, transgenic mice developing spontaneous mammary tumors are strong model systems for pre-clinical vaccine testing. In these models, HER2 DNA vaccines are easily administered, well-tolerated, and induce both humoral and cellular immunity. Although engineered mouse strains have advanced cancer immunotherapy, basic shortcomings remain. For example, multiple mouse strains have to be tested to recapitulate genetic regulation of immune tolerance in humans. Outbred domestic felines more closely parallel humans in the natural development of HER2 positive breast cancer and their varying genetic background. Electrovaccination with heterologous HER2 DNA induces robust adaptive immune responses in cats. Importantly, homologous feline HER2 DNA with a single amino acid substitution elicits unique antibodies to feline mammary tumor cells, unlocking a new vaccine principle. As an alternative approach to targeted vaccination, non-surgical tumor ablation such as cryoablation induces anti-tumor immunity via in situ immunization, particularly when combined with toll-like receptor (TLR) agonist. As strategies for vaccination advance, non-invasive monitoring of host response becomes imperative. As an example, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) scanning following administration of tryptophan metabolism tracer [11C]-alpha-methyl-tryptophan (AMT) provides non-invasive imaging of both tumor growth and metabolic activities. Because AMT is a substrate of indoleamine-pyrrole 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), an enzyme that produces the immune regulatory molecule kynurenine, AMT imaging can provide

  16. Cosmological evolution in a two-brane warped geometry model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Sumit, E-mail: sumit@ctp-jamia.res.in [Center For Theoretical Physics, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025 (India); Sen, Anjan A., E-mail: aasen@jmi.ac.in [Center For Theoretical Physics, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025 (India); SenGupta, Soumitra, E-mail: tpssg@iacs.res.in [Department of Theoretical Physics, Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Kolkata 700032 (India)

    2015-07-30

    We study an effective 4-dimensional scalar–tensor field theory, originated from an underlying brane–bulk warped geometry, to explore the scenario of inflation. It is shown that the inflaton potential naturally emerges from the radion energy–momentum tensor which in turn results in an inflationary model of the Universe on the visible brane that is consistent with the recent results from the Planck's experiment. The dynamics of modulus stabilization from the inflaton rolling condition is demonstrated. The implications of our results in the context of recent BICEP2 results are also discussed.

  17. Microstructural evolution modelling of low carbon steel sheets during continuous annealing. Prediction of the mechanical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petite, M.M.; Monsalve, A.; Gutierrez, I.; Zaitegui, J.; Larburu, J.I.

    1998-01-01

    A model has been developed which allows the prediction of both, the evolution of the microstructure during continuous annealing and the final mechanical properties as a function of the steel composition, the variables defining the annealing cycle and those during hot and cold rolling. (Author) 10 refs

  18. Non-triviality of a discrete Bak-Sneppen evolution model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meester, R.W.J.; Znamenski, D.

    2002-01-01

    Consider the following evolution model, proposed in ref. 1 by Bak and Sneppen. Put N vertices on a circle, spaced evenly. Each vertex represents a certain species. We associate with each vertex a random variable, representing the "state" or "fitness" of the species, with values in [0, 1]. The

  19. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, J.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of

  20. Investigating Island Evolution: A Galapagos-Based Lesson Using the 5E Instructional Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFina, Anthony V.

    2002-01-01

    Introduces an inquiry-based lesson plan on evolution and the Galapagos Islands. Uses the 5E instructional model which includes phases of engagement, exploration, explanation, elaboration, and evaluation. Includes information on species for exploration and elaboration purposes, and a general rubric for student evaluation. (YDS)

  1. User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

  2. Time evolution of chiral phase transition at finite temperature and density in the linear sigma model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, K.; Koide, Tomoi; Maruyama, Masahiro [Tohoku Univ., Faculty of Science, Sendai, Miyagi (Japan)

    1999-08-01

    There are various approaches to nonequilibrium system. We use the projection operator method investigated by F. Shibata and N. Hashitsume on the linear sigma model at finite temperature and density. We derive a differential equation of the time evolution for the order parameter and pion number density in chiral phase transition. (author)

  3. A theoretical model of the evolution of maternal effects under parent-offspring conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uller, Tobias; Pen, Ido

    The evolution of maternal effects on offspring phenotype should depend on the extent of parent-offspring conflict and costs and constraints associated with maternal and offspring strategies. Here, we develop a model of maternal effects on offspring dispersal phenotype under parent-offspring conflict

  4. Divergence and evolution of assortative mating in a polygenic trait model of speciation with gene flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdeva, Himani; Barton, Nicholas H

    2017-06-01

    Assortative mating is an important driver of speciation in populations with gene flow and is predicted to evolve under certain conditions in few-locus models. However, the evolution of assortment is less understood for mating based on quantitative traits, which are often characterized by high genetic variability and extensive linkage disequilibrium between trait loci. We explore this scenario for a two-deme model with migration, by considering a single polygenic trait subject to divergent viability selection across demes, as well as assortative mating and sexual selection within demes, and investigate how trait divergence is shaped by various evolutionary forces. Our analysis reveals the existence of sharp thresholds of assortment strength, at which divergence increases dramatically. We also study the evolution of assortment via invasion of modifiers of mate discrimination and show that the ES assortment strength has an intermediate value under a range of migration-selection parameters, even in diverged populations, due to subtle effects which depend sensitively on the extent of phenotypic variation within these populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the polygenic trait is studied using the hypergeometric and infinitesimal models. We further investigate the sensitivity of our results to the assumptions of the hypergeometric model, using individual-based simulations. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  5. A hierarchical model of the evolution of human brain specializations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, H. Clark

    2012-01-01

    The study of information-processing adaptations in the brain is controversial, in part because of disputes about the form such adaptations might take. Many psychologists assume that adaptations come in two kinds, specialized and general-purpose. Specialized mechanisms are typically thought of as innate, domain-specific, and isolated from other brain systems, whereas generalized mechanisms are developmentally plastic, domain-general, and interactive. However, if brain mechanisms evolve through processes of descent with modification, they are likely to be heterogeneous, rather than coming in just two kinds. They are likely to be hierarchically organized, with some design features widely shared across brain systems and others specific to particular processes. Also, they are likely to be largely developmentally plastic and interactive with other brain systems, rather than canalized and isolated. This article presents a hierarchical model of brain specialization, reviewing evidence for the model from evolutionary developmental biology, genetics, brain mapping, and comparative studies. Implications for the search for uniquely human traits are discussed, along with ways in which conventional views of modularity in psychology may need to be revised. PMID:22723350

  6. A theoretical quantitative model for evolution of cancer chemotherapy resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gatenby Robert A

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disseminated cancer remains a nearly uniformly fatal disease. While a number of effective chemotherapies are available, tumors inevitably evolve resistance to these drugs ultimately resulting in treatment failure and cancer progression. Causes for chemotherapy failure in cancer treatment reside in multiple levels: poor vascularization, hypoxia, intratumoral high interstitial fluid pressure, and phenotypic resistance to drug-induced toxicity through upregulated xenobiotic metabolism or DNA repair mechanisms and silencing of apoptotic pathways. We propose that in order to understand the evolutionary dynamics that allow tumors to develop chemoresistance, a comprehensive quantitative model must be used to describe the interactions of cell resistance mechanisms and tumor microenvironment during chemotherapy. Ultimately, the purpose of this model is to identify the best strategies to treat different types of tumor (tumor microenvironment, genetic/phenotypic tumor heterogeneity, tumor growth rate, etc.. We predict that the most promising strategies are those that are both cytotoxic and apply a selective pressure for a phenotype that is less fit than that of the original cancer population. This strategy, known as double bind, is different from the selection process imposed by standard chemotherapy, which tends to produce a resistant population that simply upregulates xenobiotic metabolism. In order to achieve this goal we propose to simulate different tumor progression and therapy strategies (chemotherapy and glucose restriction targeting stabilization of tumor size and minimization of chemoresistance. Results This work confirms the prediction of previous mathematical models and simulations that suggested that administration of chemotherapy with the goal of tumor stabilization instead of eradication would yield better results (longer subject survival than the use of maximum tolerated doses. Our simulations also indicate that the

  7. Enthalpy-Based Thermal Evolution of Loops: III. Comparison of Zero-Dimensional Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cargill, P. J.; Bradshaw, Stephen J.; Klimchuk, James A.

    2012-01-01

    Zero dimensional (0D) hydrodynamic models, provide a simple and quick way to study the thermal evolution of coronal loops subjected to time-dependent heating. This paper presents a comparison of a number of 0D models that have been published in the past and is intended to provide a guide for those interested in either using the old models or developing new ones. The principal difference between the models is the way the exchange of mass and energy between corona, transition region and chromosphere is treated, as plasma cycles into and out of a loop during a heating-cooling cycle. It is shown that models based on the principles of mass and energy conservation can give satisfactory results at some, or, in the case of the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops (EBTEL) model, all stages of the loop evolution. Empirical models can lead to low coronal densities, spurious delays between the peak density and temperature, and, for short heating pulses, overly short loop lifetimes.

  8. History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanatkar, M R; Scoglio, C; Natarajan, B; Isard, S A; Garrett, K A

    2015-07-01

    Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

  9. Geologic and Isotopic Models for the Carpathian Crystalline Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Coriolan Balintoni

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of Carpathian metamorphics protoliths have TDM model Sm/Nd ages between 1.6 and 2.0 Ga. This suggests an important episode of continental crust formation after the 2.0 Ga. The Biharia lithogroup (Apuseni Mountains and the Tulghes lithogroup (East Carpathians furnished Zircon U/Pb ages from metagranitoids and acid metavolcanics, respective, around 500 Ma; this is a sign of existence of some Lower Proterozoic protoliths among Carpathian metamorphics. The bimodal intrusions which are piercing the volcano-sedimentary sequence of Paiuseni lithogroup in Highiş Massif (Apuseni Mountains have given Permian ages on Zircon U/Pb data. The Paiuseni lithogroup probably represents the fill of a rift basin of the same age. The Arieseni, Muntele Mare and Vinta granitoid intrusions from Apuseni Mountains, with U/Pb ages between Lower Devonian and Permian, indicates some contractional and extensional processes, in connection with Variscan Orogeny.

  10. Game equilibrium models I evolution and game dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    There are two main approaches towards the phenotypic analysis of frequency dependent natural selection. First, there is the approach of evolutionary game theory, which was introduced in 1973 by John Maynard Smith and George R. Price. In this theory, the dynamical process of natural selection is not modeled explicitly. Instead, the selective forces acting within a population are represented by a fitness function, which is then analysed according to the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy or ESS. Later on, the static approach of evolutionary game theory has been complemented by a dynamic stability analysis of the replicator equations. Introduced by Peter D. Taylor and Leo B. Jonker in 1978, these equations specify a class of dynamical systems, which provide a simple dynamic description of a selection process. Usually, the investigation of the replicator dynamics centers around a stability analysis of their stationary solutions. Although evolutionary stability and dynamic stability both intend to charac...

  11. Evolution of Traffic Jam in Traffic Flow Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukui, Minoru; Ishibashi, Yoshihiro

    1993-11-01

    Traffic flow is simulated in a three-state cellular automaton model. In a two-dimensional cell without a crashed car, the ensemble average of the velocity of the cars is enhanced by the self-organization in the low-density phase of cars. In the high-density phase above p{=}0.5 of car density, the velocity is decreased and the system then degenerates into a global jamming phase in which all cars are stopped. A crashed car provides the seed of a jamming cluster, which grows into a global traffic jam even in the low-density phase. The growth of the jamming cluster is studied, and the time dependence of the number of jamming cars and the scaling law for the cell sizes are discussed.

  12. Evolution of Neural Dynamics in an Ecological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Williams

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available What is the optimal level of chaos in a computational system? If a system is too chaotic, it cannot reliably store information. If it is too ordered, it cannot transmit information. A variety of computational systems exhibit dynamics at the “edge of chaos”, the transition between the ordered and chaotic regimes. In this work, we examine the evolved neural networks of Polyworld, an artificial life model consisting of a simulated ecology populated with biologically inspired agents. As these agents adapt to their environment, their initially simple neural networks become increasingly capable of exhibiting rich dynamics. Dynamical systems analysis reveals that natural selection drives these networks toward the edge of chaos until the agent population is able to sustain itself. After this point, the evolutionary trend stabilizes, with neural dynamics remaining on average significantly far from the transition to chaos.

  13. Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, D.; Wang, J.; Arismendi, D.; Alvarez, J.; Ouandji, C.; Blaich, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA- damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO2 and O2. Additional

  14. Modeling of dislocation channel width evolution in irradiated metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Peter J.; Benensky, Kelsa M.; Zinkle, Steven J.

    2018-02-01

    Defect-free dislocation channel formation has been reported to promote plastic instability during tensile testing via localized plastic flow, leading to a distinct loss of ductility and strain hardening in many low-temperature irradiated materials. In order to study the underlying mechanisms governing dislocation channel width and formation, the channel formation process is modeled via a simple stochastic dislocation-jog process dependent upon grain size, defect cluster density, and defect size. Dislocations traverse a field of defect clusters and jog stochastically upon defect interaction, forming channels of low defect-density. Based upon prior molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and in-situ experimental transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations, each dislocation encounter with a dislocation loop or stacking fault tetrahedron (SFT) is assumed to cause complete absorption of the defect cluster, prompting the dislocation to jog up or down by a distance equal to half the defect cluster diameter. Channels are predicted to form rapidly and are comparable to reported TEM measurements for many materials. Predicted channel widths are found to be most strongly dependent on mean defect size and correlated well with a power law dependence on defect diameter and density, and distance from the dislocation source. Due to the dependence of modeled channel width on defect diameter and density, maximum channel width is predicted to slowly increase as accumulated dose increases. The relatively weak predicted dependence of channel formation width with distance, in accordance with a diffusion analogy, implies that after only a few microns from the source, most channels observed via TEM analyses may not appear to vary with distance because of limitations in the field-of-view to a few microns. Further, examinations of the effect of the so-called "source-broadening" mechanism of channel formation showed that its effect is simply to add a minimum thickness to the channel

  15. A model of epigenetic evolution based on theory of open quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

    2013-12-01

    We present a very general model of epigenetic evolution unifying (neo-)Darwinian and (neo-)Lamarckian viewpoints. The evolution is represented in the form of adaptive dynamics given by the quantum(-like) master equation. This equation describes development of the information state of epigenome under the pressure of an environment. We use the formalism of quantum mechanics in the purely operational framework. (Hence, our model has no direct relation to quantum physical processes inside a cell.) Thus our model is about probabilities for observations which can be done on epigenomes and it does not provide a detailed description of cellular processes. Usage of the operational approach provides a possibility to describe by one model all known types of cellular epigenetic inheritance.

  16. Formation-evolution model of uranium-productive basin and its recognition criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zuyi; Li Ziying; Zhou Weixun; Guan Taiyang

    2004-11-01

    Based on geologic-tectonic setting and dynamic evolution of important U-productive basins both at home and abroad, authors distinguish six type of U-productive basins, and nominate each type by typical representative of this type, namely Chu-Sarysu and Syr-Darya type, Central Kyzylkum type, Zaural and West-Siberia type, Zabaikal type, Bohemia type, and South Texas type. The formation-evolution model of each type of U-productive basin has been established and recognition criteria have been proposed. Finially, the difference between each type U-productive basin is discussed and some assumption on prospecting for U-productive basins is proposed. (authors)

  17. Computer simulation of the time evolution of a quenched model alloy in the nucleation region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marro, J.; Lebowitz, J.L.; Kalos, M.H.

    1979-01-01

    The time evolution of the structure function and of the cluster (or grain) distribution following quenching in a model binary alloy with a small concentration of minority atoms is obtained from computer simulations. The structure function S-bar (k,t) obeys a simple scaling relation, S-bar (k,t) = K -3 F (k/K) with K (t) proportional t/sup -a/, a approx. = 0.25, during the latter and larger part of the evolution. During the same period, the mean cluster size grows approximately linearly with time

  18. Alignment and prediction of cis-regulatory modules based on a probabilistic model of evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin He

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Cross-species comparison has emerged as a powerful paradigm for predicting cis-regulatory modules (CRMs and understanding their evolution. The comparison requires reliable sequence alignment, which remains a challenging task for less conserved noncoding sequences. Furthermore, the existing models of DNA sequence evolution generally do not explicitly treat the special properties of CRM sequences. To address these limitations, we propose a model of CRM evolution that captures different modes of evolution of functional transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs and the background sequences. A particularly novel aspect of our work is a probabilistic model of gains and losses of TFBSs, a process being recognized as an important part of regulatory sequence evolution. We present a computational framework that uses this model to solve the problems of CRM alignment and prediction. Our alignment method is similar to existing methods of statistical alignment but uses the conserved binding sites to improve alignment. Our CRM prediction method deals with the inherent uncertainties of binding site annotations and sequence alignment in a probabilistic framework. In simulated as well as real data, we demonstrate that our program is able to improve both alignment and prediction of CRM sequences over several state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we used alignments produced by our program to study binding site conservation in genome-wide binding data of key transcription factors in the Drosophila blastoderm, with two intriguing results: (i the factor-bound sequences are under strong evolutionary constraints even if their neighboring genes are not expressed in the blastoderm and (ii binding sites in distal bound sequences (relative to transcription start sites tend to be more conserved than those in proximal regions. Our approach is implemented as software, EMMA (Evolutionary Model-based cis-regulatory Module Analysis, ready to be applied in a broad biological context.

  19. Alignment and prediction of cis-regulatory modules based on a probabilistic model of evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Ling, Xu; Sinha, Saurabh

    2009-03-01

    Cross-species comparison has emerged as a powerful paradigm for predicting cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) and understanding their evolution. The comparison requires reliable sequence alignment, which remains a challenging task for less conserved noncoding sequences. Furthermore, the existing models of DNA sequence evolution generally do not explicitly treat the special properties of CRM sequences. To address these limitations, we propose a model of CRM evolution that captures different modes of evolution of functional transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and the background sequences. A particularly novel aspect of our work is a probabilistic model of gains and losses of TFBSs, a process being recognized as an important part of regulatory sequence evolution. We present a computational framework that uses this model to solve the problems of CRM alignment and prediction. Our alignment method is similar to existing methods of statistical alignment but uses the conserved binding sites to improve alignment. Our CRM prediction method deals with the inherent uncertainties of binding site annotations and sequence alignment in a probabilistic framework. In simulated as well as real data, we demonstrate that our program is able to improve both alignment and prediction of CRM sequences over several state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we used alignments produced by our program to study binding site conservation in genome-wide binding data of key transcription factors in the Drosophila blastoderm, with two intriguing results: (i) the factor-bound sequences are under strong evolutionary constraints even if their neighboring genes are not expressed in the blastoderm and (ii) binding sites in distal bound sequences (relative to transcription start sites) tend to be more conserved than those in proximal regions. Our approach is implemented as software, EMMA (Evolutionary Model-based cis-regulatory Module Analysis), ready to be applied in a broad biological context.

  20. Separation-Mixing as a Model of Composition Evolution of any Nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas G. Petrov

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Model of separation-mixing is applicable when studying the compositional evolution of systems of different nature, from physicochemical to the social ones. To display the processes, RHAT information language-method is proposed; it takes into account at the same point on the chart an indefinitely wide variation of components and their quantity. The possibilities of the model application are showed.

  1. A Descriptive Model of Robot Team and the Dynamic Evolution of Robot Team Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Shu-qin; Shuai, Lan; Cheng, Xian-yi; Tang, Zhen-min; Yang, Jing-yu

    2006-01-01

    At present, the research on robot team cooperation is still in qualitative analysis phase and lacks the description model that can quantitatively describe the dynamical evolution of team cooperative relationships with constantly changeable task demand in Multi-robot field. First this paper whole and static describes organization model HWROM of robot team, then uses Markov course and Bayesian theorem for reference, dynamical describes the team cooperative relationships building. Finally from c...

  2. [Method of Entirely Parallel Differential Evolution for Model Adaptation in Systems Biology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, K N; Samsonov, A M; Samsonova, M G

    2015-01-01

    We developed a method of entirely parallel differential evolution for identification of unknown parameters of mathematical models by minimization of the objective function that describes the discrepancy of the model solution and the experimental data. The method is implemented in the free and open source software available on the Internet. The method demonstrated a good performance comparable to the top three methods from CEC-2014 and was successfully applied to several biological problems.

  3. 75 FR 41881 - Notice of Intent To Prepare a Shoreline Restoration and Management Plan/Environmental Impact...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-19

    ... National Park Service Notice of Intent To Prepare a Shoreline Restoration and Management Plan/Environmental... Service (NPS) is announcing its intent to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS) for a Shoreline... restoration activities that are to be achieved and maintained for the shoreline over the next 15 to 20 years...

  4. 76 FR 18216 - Dominion Virginia Power/North Carolina Power; Notice of Availability of Shoreline Management Plan...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    .... Application Type: Revised Shoreline Management Plan. b. Project No.: 2778-062. c. Date Filed: December 29... of the Roanoke Rapids and Gaston Hydroelectric Project, has filed a revised Shoreline Management Plan... Power/North Carolina Power; Notice of Availability of Shoreline Management Plan Update for the Shoshone...

  5. The evolution of the Fenway Community Health model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, K; Appelbaum, J; Rogers, T; Lo, W; Bradford, J; Boswell, S

    2001-06-01

    Fenway Community Health was founded by community activists in 1971 in the Fenway neighborhood of Boston, Mass, and within a decade had rapidly expanded its medical services for gay men in response to the AIDS epidemic. Increased expertise and cultural competence in lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) care led to expansion of medical services to address broader community concerns, ranging from substance use to parenting issues to domestic and homophobic violence, as well as specialized programs for lesbians, bisexuals, and transgendered individuals. Fenway began as a grassroots neighborhood clinic. In 1975, the center recorded 5000 patient care visits; in 2000, Fenway's clinical departments recorded 50,850 visits by 8361 individuals, including more than 1100 individuals receiving HIV-associated care. The center now has more than 170 staff people responsible for clinical programs, community education, research, administration, planning, and development. Over the past few years, Fenway's annual budget has exceeded $10 million. Fenway has established standards for improved cultural competence about LGBT health issues for other health providers and has developed programs to educate the general community about specific LGBT health concerns. This health center may provide a model of comprehensive LGBT health services that have a local impact.

  6. Modeling Variable Phanerozoic Oxygen Effects on Physiology and Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Jeffrey B; Jew, Corey J; Wegner, Nicholas C

    2016-01-01

    Geochemical approximation of Earth's atmospheric O2 level over geologic time prompts hypotheses linking hyper- and hypoxic atmospheres to transformative events in the evolutionary history of the biosphere. Such correlations, however, remain problematic due to the relative imprecision of the timing and scope of oxygen change and the looseness of its overlay on the chronology of key biotic events such as radiations, evolutionary innovation, and extinctions. There are nevertheless general attributions of atmospheric oxygen concentration to key evolutionary changes among groups having a primary dependence upon oxygen diffusion for respiration. These include the occurrence of Devonian hypoxia and the accentuation of air-breathing dependence leading to the origin of vertebrate terrestriality, the occurrence of Carboniferous-Permian hyperoxia and the major radiation of early tetrapods and the origins of insect flight and gigantism, and the Mid-Late Permian oxygen decline accompanying the Permian extinction. However, because of variability between and error within different atmospheric models, there is little basis for postulating correlations outside the Late Paleozoic. Other problems arising in the correlation of paleo-oxygen with significant biological events include tendencies to ignore the role of blood pigment affinity modulation in maintaining homeostasis, the slow rates of O2 change that would have allowed for adaptation, and significant respiratory and circulatory modifications that can and do occur without changes in atmospheric oxygen. The purpose of this paper is thus to refocus thinking about basic questions central to the biological and physiological implications of O2 change over geological time.

  7. Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedian, M.; Khalighi, M.; Azimi-Tafreshi, N.; Jafari, G. R.; Ausloos, M.

    2017-02-01

    Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by a non-Markovian dynamics: memory effects play an essential role in the spreading of diseases. Including memory effects in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model seems very appropriate for such an investigation. Thus, the memory prone SIR model dynamics is investigated using fractional derivatives. The decay of long-range memory, taken as a power-law function, is directly controlled by the order of the fractional derivatives in the corresponding nonlinear fractional differential evolution equations. Here we assume "fully mixed" approximation and show that the epidemic threshold is shifted to higher values than those for the memoryless system, depending on this memory "length" decay exponent. We also consider the SIR model on structured networks and study the effect of topology on threshold points in a non-Markovian dynamics. Furthermore, the lack of access to the precise information about the initial conditions or the past events plays a very relevant role in the correct estimation or prediction of the epidemic evolution. Such a "constraint" is analyzed and discussed.

  8. Comparing landscape evolution models with quantitative field data at the millennial time scale in the Belgian loess belt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Peeters, I.; Buis, E.; Veldkamp, A.; Govers, G.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares three landscape evolution models and their ability to correctly simulate measured 2500¿year landscape evolution in two small catchments in the Belgian loess belt. WATEM LT and LAPSUS both model tillage and water erosion and deposition and have detachment-limited descriptions for

  9. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  10. A computational model for domain structure evolution of nematic liquid crystal elastomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongbo; Oates, William S.

    2009-03-01

    Liquid crystal elastomers combine both liquid crystals and polymers, which gives rise to many fascinating properties, such as unparalleled elastic anisotropy, photo-mechanics and flexoelectric behavior. The potential applications for these materials widely range from wings for micro-air vehicles to reversible adhesion skins for mobile climbing robots. However, significant challenges remain to understand the rich range of microstructure evolution exibited by these materials. This paper presents a model for domain structure evolution within the Ginzburg-Landau framework. The free energy consists of two parts: the distortion energy introduced by Ericksen [1] and a Landau energy. The finite element method has been implemented to solve the governing equations developed. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the microstructure evolution.

  11. Modelling of long term kinetic evolution: a fruitful relationship between experiment and theoretical development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbu, A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent developments in multi-scale modelling, based on atomic scale calculations, are leading to a growing conviction that modelling will soon be used to design material components for nuclear reactors. In this article we discuss this assumption on the basis of the relationship between experimental studies and theoretical calculations of the microstructural evolution of materials under irradiation. In the first part of the paper, the available numerical models for long term microstructural evolutions are briefly reviewed. The experimental methods are presented in a second part. In the third part, several examples of fruitful relationships between modelling and experiments are discussed. The first example deals with the isochronal electrical resistivity recovery of electron irradiated ultra pure iron at 14 K, the second one is dedicated to the microstructural evolution of ferritic model alloy during continuous irradiation with 1 MeV electrons at large fluences, the third one is the modelling of He desorption of helium implanted iron, and the fourth example concerns the mechanisms of formation of solute rich clusters observed by 3-dimensional atom probe in irradiated pressure vessel steels of water pressurized nuclear reactors

  12. Shoreline changes and Coastal Flooding impacts: South Gujarat coast (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parihar, S. B.

    2016-12-01

    South Gujarat coast (India) is experiencing increased coastal inundation and erosion caused by sea-level rise affecting the population, infrastructure, and environment. The area falls under low elevation coastal zone (LEZ) and its topography of the area is also making coast highly susceptible to flooding, especially at high tides and during the rainy season. As part of studies on shoreline changes field trip carried on the coastal taluka's of South Gujarat coast i.e. Surat, Navsari and Valsad shows various temporal changes is taking place at coastal belt. There are ample of studies on coastal dynamics and impacts. The study focus on spatial temporal analysis shows the vulnerable zones covering various physical elements at risk. These coastal areas are attractive in nature for all kind of economic development and growth because of availability of the water & fertile land for house hold use, fishing and transportation. On the contrary, South Gujarat coast being tectonically active; makes this region high vulnerable for any kind of infrastructure development. The region had also witnessed loss of life and property, disruptions to transport & power and incidences of epidemics during the floods of 2006 in Surat. Coastal flooding would, under these scenarios, threaten region that are home of 370,000 approx (Census, 2011) people in seven coastal taluka's of Surat, Navsari and Valsad district. Among the people residing in the region, the most vulnerable communities are fishermen, farmer and industrial labours. The wide range of infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, schools, power plants, industries and port will also be at risk. Shoreline changes are inevitably changing the characteristics of south Gujarat coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts on environment and human settlements. Key words: sea level rise, LEZ, vulnerable, erosion, inundation, spatial temporal analysis, landuse changes.

  13. Megascale rhythmic shoreline forms on a beach with multiple bars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The study, carried out in 2003 and 2006 at the Lubiatowo Coastal ResearchStation (Poland, located on the non-tidal southern Baltic coast(tidal range < 0.06 m, focused on larger rhythmic forms (mega-cusps withwavelengths in the interval 500 m > Lc > 20 m. Statistical analyses of detailed shoreline configurations were performed mostly with the Discrete Wavelet Transformmethod (DWT. The beach is composed of fine sand with grain diameter D50 ≈ 0.22 mm, which produces 4 longshore sandbars and a gently sloping seabed with β = 0.015. The analysis confirms the key role of bars in hydro- and morphodynamic surf zone processes.The hypothesis was therefore set up that, in a surf zone with multiple bars, the bars and mega-scale shoreline rhythmic forms form one integrated physical system; experimental evidence to substantiate this hypothesis was also sought.In such a system not only do self-regulation processes include swash zone phenomena, they also incorporate processes in offshore surf zone locations.The longshore dimensions of large cusps are thus related to the distances between periodically active large bed forms (bars. The spatial dimension of bar system activity (number of active bars depends, at a given time scale, on the associated hydrodynamic conditions. It was assumed that such a time scale could include either the development and duration of a storm, or a period of stable, yet distinct waves, capable of remodelling the beach configuration.The indentation to wavelength ratio of mega-cusps for the studied non-tidal dissipative environment may be one order of magnitude greater than for mesotidal, reflective beaches.

  14. A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coutinho FAB

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more virulent strain prevails.

  15. A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAB Coutinho

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more virulent strain prevails.

  16. The development and application of landscape evolution models to coupled coast-estuarine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) are proven to be useful tools in understanding the morphodynamics of coast and estuarine systems. However, perhaps owing to the lack of research in this area, current models are not capable of simulating the dynamic interactions between these systems and their co-evolution at the meso-scale. Through a novel coupling of numerical models, this research is designed to explore coupled coastal-estuarine interactions, controls on system behaviour and the influence that environmental change could have. This will contribute to the understanding of the morphodynamics of these systems and how they may behave and evolve over the next century in response to climate changes, with the aim of informing management practices. This goal is being achieved through the modification and coupling of the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with the hydrodynamic LEM CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L). The major issues faced with coupling these programs are their differing complexities and the limited graphical visualisations produced by the CEM that hinder the dissemination of results. The work towards overcoming these issues and reported here, include a new version of the CEM that incorporates a range of more complex geomorphological processes and boasts a graphical user interface that guides users through model set-up and projects a live output during model runs. The improved version is a stand-alone tool that can be used for further research projects and for teaching purposes. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method has been completed to identify which key variables, including wave climate, erosion and weathering values, dominate the control of model behaviour. The model is being applied and tested using the evolution of the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point on the east coast of England (UK), which possess diverse geomorphologies and complex, co-evolving sediment pathways. Simulations using the modified CEM are currently being completed to

  17. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states bordering the Gulf of Mexico (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) represents the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not

  18. National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.

    2005-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in

  19. A simple model for the evolution of the dust population in protoplanetary disks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnstiel, T.; Klahr, H.; Ercolano, B.

    2012-03-01

    Context. The global size and spatial distribution of dust is an important ingredient in the structure and evolution of protoplanetary disks and in the formation of larger bodies, such as planetesimals. Aims: We aim to derive simple equations that explain the global evolution of the dust surface density profile and the upper limit of the grain size distribution and which can readily be used for further modeling or for interpreting of observational data. Methods: We have developed a simple model that follows the upper end of the dust size distribution and the evolution of the dust surface density profile. This model is calibrated with state-of-the-art simulations of dust evolution, which treat dust growth, fragmentation, and transport in viscously evolving gas disks. Results: We find very good agreement between the full dust-evolution code and the toy model presented in this paper. We derive analytical profiles that describe the dust-to-gas ratios and the dust surface density profiles well in protoplanetary disks, as well as the radial flux by solid material "rain out", which is crucial for triggering any gravity assisted formation of planetesimals. We show that fragmentation is the dominating effect in the inner regions of the disk leading to a dust surface density exponent of -1.5, while the outer regions at later times can become drift-dominated, yielding a dust surface density exponent of -0.75. Our results show that radial drift is not efficient in fragmenting dust grains. This supports the theory that small dust grains are resupplied by fragmentation due to the turbulent state of the disk.

  20. Quantitative analysis of shoreline changes at the Mediterranean Coast in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleli, Tuncay

    2010-08-01

    This research is focused on the coastline evolution monitoring and its potential change estimation by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat images at the southeast coasts of the Mediterranean Sea in Turkey. The study area includes the coastal zone located in the Cukurova Delta coasts. The Cukurova Delta has accreted toward the Mediterranean Sea as a result of sediment discharge and transport from Seyhan and Ceyhan rivers. These processes have caused the morphological changes (accretion or erosion) of coastline along some parts of the southeast coasts of the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, coastline changes were researched by using radiometrically and geometrically corrected multi-temporal and multi-spectral data from Landsat Multispectral Scanner dated 1972, Thematic Mapper dated 1987, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper dated 2002. In the image processing steps, mosaicing, subset, Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique classification, band ratioing (B5/B2), edge detection, and overlay techniques were used to carry out coastline extraction and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate rate of coastline changes. As a result of the analysis, in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes (more than 2,900 m withdrawal and -24.50 m/year erosion) were observed for a 30-year period.

  1. Texture evolution in upset-forged P/M and wrought tantalum: Experimentation and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bingert, J.F.; Desch, P.B.; Bingert, S.R.; Maudlin, P.J.; Tome, C.N.

    1997-11-01

    Preferred orientations in polycrystalline materials can significantly affect their physical and mechanical response through the retention of anisotropic properties inherent to the single crystal. In this study the texture evolution in upset-forged PIM and wrought tantalum was measured as a function of initial texture, compressive strain, and relative position in the pressing. A / duplex fiber texture parallel to the compression axis was generally observed, with varying degrees of a radial component evident in the wrought material. The development of deformation textures derives from restricted crystallographic slip conditions that generate lattice rotations, and these grain reorientations can be modeled as a function of the prescribed deformation gradient. Texture development was simulated for equivalent deformations using both a modified Taylor approach and a viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) model. A comparison between the predicted evolution and experimental results shows a good correlation with the texture components, but an overly sharp prediction at large strains from both the Taylor and VPSC models

  2. A simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir model of chemical evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caimmi R.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Simple closed-box (CB models of chemical evolution are extended on two respects, namely (i simple closed-(box+reservoir (CBR models allowing gas outflow from the box into the reservoir (Hartwick 1976 or gas inflow into the box from the reservoir (Caimmi 2007 with rate proportional to the star formation rate, and (ii simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir (MCBR models allowing different stages of evolution characterized by different inflow or outflow rates. The theoretical differential oxygen abundance distribution (TDOD predicted by the model maintains close to a continuous broken straight line. An application is made where a fictitious sample is built up from two distinct samples of halo stars and taken as representative of the inner Galactic halo. The related empirical differential oxygen abundance distribution (EDOD is represented, to an acceptable extent, as a continuous broken line for two viable [O/H]-[Fe/H] empirical relations. The slopes and the intercepts of the regression lines are determined, and then used as input parameters to MCBR models. Within the errors (-+σ, regression line slopes correspond to a large inflow during the earlier stage of evolution and to low or moderate outflow during the subsequent stages. A possible inner halo - outer (metal-poor bulge connection is also briefly discussed. Quantitative results cannot be considered for applications to the inner Galactic halo, unless selection effects and disk contamination are removed from halo samples, and discrepancies between different oxygen abundance determination methods are explained.

  3. Bayesian Thermal Evolution Models for Giant Planets: Helium rain and double-diffusive convection in Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankovich, C.; Fortney, J. J.; Moore, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrogen and helium demix when sufficiently cool, and this bears on the thermal evolution of all cool giant planets at or below one Jupiter mass. Over the past few years, ab initio simulations have put us in the era of quantitative predictions for this H-He immiscibility at megabar pressures. We present models for the thermal evolution of Jupiter, including its evolving helium distribution following one such ab initio H-He phase diagram. After 4 Gyr of homogeneous evolution, differentiation establishes a helium gradient between 1 and 2 Mbar that dynamically stabilizes the fluid to overturning convection. The result is a region undergoing overstable double-diffusive convection (ODDC), whose relatively weak vertical heat transport maintains a superadiabatic temperature gradient. With a general parameterization for the ODDC efficiency, the models can reconcile Jupiter's intrinsic flux, atmospheric helium content, and radius at the age of the solar system if this H-He phase diagram is translated to cooler temperatures. We cast our nonadiabatic thermal evolution models in a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation framework, retrieving the total heavy element mass, the superadiabaticity in the convectively stable region, and the phase diagram temperature offset. Models using the interpolated Saumon, Chabrier and van Horn (1995) equation of state (SCvH-I) favor very inefficient ODDC, forming a thermal boundary layer that allows the molecular envelope to cool rapidly while the deeper interior (most of the planet's mass) actually heats up over time. If the overall cooling time is modulated with an additional free parameter, mimicking the effect of a colder or warmer EOS, the models favor those that are colder than SCvH-I; this class of EOS is also favored by shock experiments. The models in this scenario have more modest deep superadiabaticities such that the envelope cools more gradually, and a cooling or warming deep interior are equally likely.

  4. Monitoring of shoreline changes using remote sensing (case study: coastal city of Bandar Abbas)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamassoki, E; Amiri, H; Soleymani, Z

    2014-01-01

    Shoreline change is one of the most common natural processes that prevail upon coastal areas. The most important aspect of managing coastal areas is identifying the location and change over time of shoreline. This requires frequent monitoring of the shoreline using satellite imagery over time. We have used imagery from the Landsat TM-5 sensor from 1984,1998 and 2009 in order to monitor shoreline changes using the Max Likelihood Classification method (MLC) in Bandar Abbas city. Monitoring showed that during the period from 1984 to 1998 the area of coastline of Bandar Abbas increased 804.09 hectares. The increase over the next 11-year period was as less, at only 140.81 hectares. In 2009 there was a drastic decrease in shoreline, with the total length of shoreline decreasing from 330 km to 271 km during the period from 1984 to 2009.Results showed that in each period in which the area of coastline advanced, changes in length of shoreline had been less prominent

  5. The Pilot Valley shoreline: An early record of Lake Bonneville dynamics: Chapter 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David; Phelps, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    The Pilot Valley shoreline is named for distinctive gravel beaches on the eastern, northern, and western sides of Pilot Valley playa, Utah. The shoreline has been identified across the Bonneville basin where it is characterized by one to three beach crests between ~ 1305 and 1309 m elevation, all overlain by deep-water marl of Lake Bonneville. It thus represents the lowest and earliest recognized shoreline of Lake Bonneville. Features of the shoreline indicate that both high wave energy and high stream sediment discharge contributed to shoreline development. Basin hypsometry did not play a role in the development of the shoreline, which must have been caused by a combination of climatically driven hydrologic and storm factors, such as reduced precipitation that stabilized lake level and increase in storm-driven wave energy. The Pilot Valley shoreline is poorly dated at about 30 ka. If it is somewhat older, correlation with Greenland Interstadial 5.1 at 30.8–30.6 ka could explain the stabilization of lake level.

  6. Fetal nutrition in lecithotrophic squamate reptiles: toward a comprehensive model for evolution of viviparity and placentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, James R

    2013-07-01

    The primary pattern of embryonic nutrition for squamate reptiles is lecithotrophy; with few exceptions, all squamate embryos mobilize nutrients from yolk. The evolution of viviparity presents an opportunity for an additional source of embryonic nutrition through delivery of uterine secretions, or placentotrophy. This pattern of embryonic nutrition is thought to evolve through placental supplementation of lecithotrophy, followed by increasing dependence on placentotrophy. This review analyzes the relationship between reproductive mode and pattern of embryonic nutrition in three lecithotrophic viviparous species, and oviparous counterparts, for concordance with a current model for the evolution of viviparity and placentation. The assumptions of the model, that nutrients for oviparous embryos are mobilized from yolk, and that this source is not disrupted in the transition to viviparity, are supported for most nutrients. In contrast, calcium, an essential nutrient for embryonic development, is mobilized from both yolk and eggshell by oviparous embryos and reduction of eggshell calcium is correlated with viviparity. If embryonic fitness is compromised by disruption of a primary source of calcium, selection may not favor evolution of viviparity, yet viviparity has arisen independently in numerous squamate lineages. Studies of fetal nutrition in reproductively bimodal species suggest a resolution to this paradox. If uterine calcium secretion occurs during prolonged intrauterine egg retention, calcium placentotrophy evolves prior to viviparity as a replacement for eggshell calcium and embryonic nutrition will not be compromised. This hypothesis is integrated into the current model for evolution of viviparity and placentation to address the unique attributes of calcium nutrition. The sequence of events requires a shift in timing of uterine calcium secretion and the embryonic mechanism of calcium retrieval to be responsive to calcium availability. Regulation of uterine

  7. New Model of Evolution of Technologies and Prospects of Research With Using Big Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Krichevsky

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to create the adequate technical picture of the world we need the new comprehension, the new models of evolution of technology and technosphere, and the new tools of perception, fixation and interpretation of the artefacts of the technical reality. A new interpretation of the notion «technological mode», which is the key in this article is suggested. Technological mode is the order of the existence and the activity of the society with the application of a number of mutually connected technologies, in the format of socio-techno-natural system, in the interaction with the environment, with the coverage of socio-eco-economic aspects. A new model of the evolution of technologies in the global paradigm of the global future and «green» development has been developed. The model shows: 1 the accelerated growth and the estimation of the total number of technologies; 2 1st - 7th technological modes (including the promising «green» as the rising levels of the integral technological way, inscribed in the Snooks-Panov’s hyperbolic curve, which reflects the process of evolution on the Earth with a singularity ~ in 2045 (forecast; 3 before-singular as well as post-singular migration options and global future; 4 a hypothetical post-singular 8th technological mode. As a new tool, it is proposed to use Big Data for the research of the nonlinear global process of evolution of technologies, technological modes, and the technosphere for the purpose of the analysis, forecast and management. The idea and the foundations of the concept of a new international mega-project «Big data for research of the evolution of technologies» are also stated.

  8. A new galactic chemical evolution model with dust: results for dwarf irregular galaxies and DLA systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gioannini, L.; Matteucci, F.; Vladilo, G.; Calura, F.

    2017-01-01

    We present a galactic chemical evolution model which adopts updated prescriptions for all the main processes governing the dust cycle. We follow in detail the evolution of the abundances of several chemical species (C, O, S, Si, Fe and Zn) in the gas and dust of a typical dwarf irregular galaxy. The dwarf irregular galaxy is assumed to evolve with a low but continuous level of star formation and experience galactic winds triggered by supernova (SN) explosions. We predict the evolution of the gas to dust ratio in such a galaxy and discuss critically the main processes involving dust, such as dust production by asymptotic giant branch stars and Type II SNe, destruction and accretion (gas condensation in clouds). We then apply our model to damped Lyman α (DLA) systems which are believed to be dwarf irregulars, as witnessed by their abundance patterns. Our main conclusions are the following. (I) We can reproduce the observed gas to dust ratio in dwarf galaxies. (II) We find that the process of dust accretion plays a fundamental role in the evolution of dust and in certain cases it becomes the dominant process in the dust cycle. On the other hand, dust destruction seems to be a negligible process in irregulars. (III) Concerning DLA systems, we show that the observed gas-phase abundances of silicon, normalized to volatile elements (zinc and sulfur), are in agreement with our model. (IV) The abundances of iron and silicon in DLA systems suggest that the two elements undergo a different history of dust formation and evolution. Our work casts light on the nature of iron-rich dust: the observed depletion pattern of iron is well reproduced only when an additional source of iron dust is considered. Here we explore the possibility of a contribution from Type Ia SNe as well as an efficient accretion of iron nanoparticles.

  9. Oyster reefs as natural breakwaters mitigate shoreline loss and facilitate fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scyphers, Steven B; Powers, Sean P; Heck, Kenneth L; Byron, Dorothy

    2011-01-01

    Shorelines at the interface of marine, estuarine and terrestrial biomes are among the most degraded and threatened habitats in the coastal zone because of their sensitivity to sea level rise, storms and increased human utilization. Previous efforts to protect shorelines have largely involved constructing bulkheads and seawalls which can detrimentally affect nearshore habitats. Recently, efforts have shifted towards "living shoreline" approaches that include biogenic breakwater reefs. Our study experimentally tested the efficacy of breakwater reefs constructed of oyster shell for protecting eroding coastal shorelines and their effect on nearshore fish and shellfish communities. Along two different stretches of eroding shoreline, we created replicated pairs of subtidal breakwater reefs and established unaltered reference areas as controls. At both sites we measured shoreline and bathymetric change and quantified oyster recruitment, fish and mobile macro-invertebrate abundances. Breakwater reef treatments mitigated shoreline retreat by more than 40% at one site, but overall vegetation retreat and erosion rates were high across all treatments and at both sites. Oyster settlement and subsequent survival were observed at both sites, with mean adult densities reaching more than eighty oysters m(-2) at one site. We found the corridor between intertidal marsh and oyster reef breakwaters supported higher abundances and different communities of fishes than control plots without oyster reef habitat. Among the fishes and mobile invertebrates that appeared to be strongly enhanced were several economically-important species. Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) were the most clearly enhanced (+297%) by the presence of breakwater reefs, while red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) (+108%), spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) (+88%) and flounder (Paralichthys sp.) (+79%) also benefited. Although the vertical relief of the breakwater reefs was reduced over the course of our study and this

  10. Shoreline changes and high-energy wave impacts at the leeward coast of Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Brückner, Helmut; Messenzehl, Karoline; Frenzel, Peter; May, Simon Matthias; Scheffers, Anja; Scheffers, Sander; Wennrich, Volker; Kelletat, Dieter

    2012-10-01

    Supralittoral coarse-clast deposits along the shores of Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles) as well as increased hurricane frequency during the past decade testify to the major hazard of high-energy wave impacts in the southern Caribbean. Since deducing certain events from the subaerial coarse-clast record involves major uncertainties and historical reports are restricted to the past 500 years, we use a new set of vibracore and push core data (i) to contribute to a more reliable Holocene history of regional extreme-wave events and (ii) to evaluate their impact on shoreline evolution. Multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental analyses (XRF, XRD, grain size distribution, carbonate, LOI, microfossils) were carried out using nearshore sedimentary archives from the sheltered western (leeward) side of Bonaire and its small neighbour Klein Bonaire. In combination with 14C-AMS age estimates the stratigraphy reflects a long-term coastal evolution controlled by relative sea level rise, longshore sediment transport, and short-term morphodynamic impulses by extreme wave action, all three of which may have significantly influenced the development of polyhaline lagoons and the demise of mangrove populations. Extreme wave events may be categorized into major episodic incidents (c. 3.6 ka [?] BP; 3.2-3.0 ka BP; 2.0-1.8 ka BP; post-1.3 ka [?] BP), which may correspond to tsunamis and periodic events recurring on the order of decades to centuries, which we interpret as severe tropical cyclones. Extreme wave events seem to control to a certain extent the formation of coastal ridges on Bonaire and, thus, to cause abrupt shifts in the long-term morphodynamic and ecological boundary conditions of the circumlittoral inland bays.

  11. Evolution of radial profiles in regular Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi dust models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sussman, Roberto A

    2010-01-01

    We undertake a comprehensive and rigorous analytic study of the evolution of radial profiles of covariant scalars in regular LemaItre-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) dust models. We consider specifically the phenomenon of 'profile inversions' in which an initial clump profile of density, spatial curvature or the expansion scalar might evolve into a void profile (and vice versa). Previous work in the literature on models with density void profiles and/or allowing for density profile inversions is given full generalization, with some erroneous results corrected. We prove rigorously that if an evolution without shell crossings is assumed, then only the 'clump to void' inversion can occur in density profiles, and only in hyperbolic models or regions with negative spatial curvature. The profiles of spatial curvature follow similar patterns as those of the density, with 'clump to void' inversions only possible for hyperbolic models or regions. However, profiles of the expansion scalar are less restrictive, with profile inversions necessarily taking place in elliptic models. We also examine radial profiles in special LTB configurations: closed elliptic models, models with a simultaneous big bang singularity, as well as a locally collapsing elliptic region surrounded by an expanding hyperbolic background. The general analytic statements that we obtain allow for setting up the right initial conditions to construct fully regular LTB models with any specific qualitative requirements for the profiles of all scalars and their time evolution. The results presented can be very useful in guiding future numerical work on these models and in revising previous analytic work on all their applications.

  12. A physically based 3-D model of ice cliff evolution over debris-covered glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Wagnon, Patrick; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-12-01

    We use high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys to document the evolution of four ice cliffs on the debris-covered tongue of Lirung Glacier, Nepal, over one ablation season. Observations show that out of four cliffs, three different patterns of evolution emerge: (i) reclining cliffs that flatten during the ablation season; (ii) stable cliffs that maintain a self-similar geometry; and (iii) growing cliffs, expanding laterally. We use the insights from this unique data set to develop a 3-D model of cliff backwasting and evolution that is validated against observations and an independent data set of volume losses. The model includes ablation at the cliff surface driven by energy exchange with the atmosphere, reburial of cliff cells by surrounding debris, and the effect of adjacent ponds. The cliff geometry is updated monthly to account for the modifications induced by each of those processes. Model results indicate that a major factor affecting the survival of steep cliffs is the coupling with ponded water at its base, which prevents progressive flattening and possible disappearance of a cliff. The radial growth observed at one cliff is explained by higher receipts of longwave and shortwave radiation, calculated taking into account atmospheric fluxes, shading, and the emission of longwave radiation from debris surfaces. The model is a clear step forward compared to existing static approaches that calculate atmospheric melt over an invariant cliff geometry and can be used for long-term simulations of cliff evolution and to test existing hypotheses about cliffs' survival.

  13. Theory and modeling of microstructural evolution in polycrystalline materials: Solute segregation, grain growth and phase transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning

    2005-11-01

    To accurately predict microstructure evolution and, hence, to synthesis metal and ceramic alloys with desirable properties involves many fundamental as well as practical issues. In the present study, novel theoretical and phase field approaches have been developed to address some of these issues including solute drag and segregation transition at grain boundaries and dislocations, grain growth in systems of anisotropic boundary properties, and precipitate microstructure development in polycrystalline materials. The segregation model has allowed for the prediction of a first-order segregation transition, which could be related to the sharp transition of solute concentration of grain boundary as a function of temperature. The incorporating of interfacial energy and mobility as functions of misorientation and inclination in the phase field model has allowed for the study of concurrent grain growth and texture evolution. The simulation results were analyzed using the concept of local grain boundary energy density, which simplified significantly the development of governing equations for texture controlled grain growth in Ti-6Al-4V. Quantitative phase field modeling techniques have been developed by incorporating thermodynamic and diffusivity databases. The models have been validated against DICTRA simulations in simple 1D problems and applied to simulate realistic microstructural evolutions in Ti-6Al-4V, including grain boundary a and globular a growth and sideplate development under both isothermal aging and continuous cooling conditions. The simulation predictions agree well with experimental observations.

  14. Modelling metabolic evolution on phenotypic fitness landscapes: a case study on C4 photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckmann, David

    2015-12-01

    How did the complex metabolic systems we observe today evolve through adaptive evolution? The fitness landscape is the theoretical framework to answer this question. Since experimental data on natural fitness landscapes is scarce, computational models are a valuable tool to predict landscape topologies and evolutionary trajectories. Careful assumptions about the genetic and phenotypic features of the system under study can simplify the design of such models significantly. The analysis of C4 photosynthesis evolution provides an example for accurate predictions based on the phenotypic fitness landscape of a complex metabolic trait. The C4 pathway evolved multiple times from the ancestral C3 pathway and models predict a smooth 'Mount Fuji' landscape accordingly. The modelled phenotypic landscape implies evolutionary trajectories that agree with data on modern intermediate species, indicating that evolution can be predicted based on the phenotypic fitness landscape. Future directions will have to include structural changes of metabolic fitness landscape structure with changing environments. This will not only answer important evolutionary questions about reversibility of metabolic traits, but also suggest strategies to increase crop yields by engineering the C4 pathway into C3 plants. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

  15. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Zaggia

    Full Text Available An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3. The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  16. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaggia, Luca; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

    2017-01-01

    An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  17. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of ocean shoreline location on the Virginia barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluska, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Shoreline change along the Eastern Atlantic shore of Virginia has been studied for the individual barrier islands but not as an integrated system. This study combines the Atlantic shoreline locations for eleven barrier islands obtained from LANDSAT 5, 7, and 8 images. Approximately 250 shoreline locations over a 24-year period from Jan 1990 to Dec 2014 were extracted from the digitized shoreline data at 338 transects. The resulting 338 by 250 matrix was analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique. The first four principal components (PC) explained 86 percent of the sample variance. Since the data was not detrended, the first PC was the overall trend of the data with a discontinuity in 2004-2005. The 2004-2005 interval included storm events and large shoreline changes. PCs 2 to 4 reflect the effects of El Nino events and tropical and non-tropical storms. Eigenvectors 1 to 4 all show the effects of the nine inlets in the island group. Eigenvector (EV) 1 explains 59 percent of the shoreline spatial variance and shows the largest changes at the northern and southern island ends. EVs 2 to 4 reflect the pattern of EV1 but at sequentially smaller percentages of the spatial variance. As a group, the eleven islands are losing ocean side shoreline. The lone exception is Hog Island. Sea level had the strongest correlation with the shoreline loss trend of PC1. The coefficient of determination was 0.41. The NAO and MEI also correlated with PC1 with correlations of determination of 0.05 and 0.12 respectively. These confidence level for the three factors was better than 99 percent. Sea level also correlated with PC3 and PC4. The PCs as a group show that the year intervals 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 had large effects on the shoreline change pattern for the island group. EVs 1 to 4 had the highest range of shoreline change at the island ends indicating the effect the changes of the inlets have on the adjacent islands. The smaller islands as a group had a higher level

  18. The Shoreline Video Assessment Method (S-VAM): Using dynamic hyperlapse image acquisition to evaluate shoreline mangrove forest structure, values, degradation and threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Jock R; Duke, Norman C; Wood, Apanie L

    2016-08-30

    Climate change with human direct pressures represent significant threats to the resilience of shoreline habitats like mangroves. A rapid, whole-of-system assessment strategy is needed to evaluate such threats, better linking innovative remote sensing with essential on-ground evaluations. Using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method, we surveyed around 190km of the mostly mangrove-fringed (78%) coastline of Kien Giang Province, Vietnam. The aim was to identify anthropogenic drivers of degradation, establishing baseline for specific rehabilitation and protection strategies. Fish traps occupy at least 87% of shoreline mangroves, around which there were abundant human activities - like fishing, crabbing, farming, plus collecting firewood and foliage. Such livelihoods were associated with remnant, fringing mangrove that were largely degraded and threatened by erosion retreat, herbivory, and excessive cutting. Our assessment quantified associated threats to shoreline stability, along with previous rehabilitation intervention measures. The method offers key opportunities for effective conservation and management of vulnerable shoreline habitats. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Landform Evolution Modeling of Specific Fluvially Eroded Physiographic Units on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. M.; Howard, A. D.; Schenk, P. M.

    2015-01-01

    Several recent studies have proposed certain terrain types (i.e., physiographic units) on Titan thought to be formed by fluvial processes acting on local uplands of bedrock or in some cases sediment. We have earlier used our landform evolution models to make general comparisons between Titan and other ice world landscapes (principally those of the Galilean satellites) that we have modeled the action of fluvial processes. Here we give examples of specific landscapes that, subsequent to modeled fluvial work acting on the surfaces, produce landscapes which resemble mapped terrain types on Titan.

  20. Evolution of the fine-structure constant in runaway dilaton models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.J.A.P. Martins

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study the detailed evolution of the fine-structure constant α in the string-inspired runaway dilaton class of models of Damour, Piazza and Veneziano. We provide constraints on this scenario using the most recent α measurements and discuss ways to distinguish it from alternative models for varying α. For model parameters which saturate bounds from current observations, the redshift drift signal can differ considerably from that of the canonical ΛCDM paradigm at high redshifts. Measurements of this signal by the forthcoming European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT, together with more sensitive α measurements, will thus dramatically constrain these scenarios.