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Sample records for modeling route choice

  1. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen præsenterer og diskuterer forskellige rutevalgsmodeller. Konklusionen er, at der for bytrafik altid bør benyttes modeller, der både er stokastiske og trafikafhængige. Af trafikafhængige modeller er det hidtil kun vist, at Successive Gennemsnits Metode (MSA) er konvergent. Stochastic User...

  2. MULTINOMINAL LOGIT MODEL OF BICYCLIST ROUTE CHOICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyshova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the multinominal logit discrete choice model that allows determining parameters coefficients of the cyclists’ route. The basic model includes six parameters, however, only a number of signalized intersections, speed of motorized traffic and total physical work required from cyclist prove to be significant factors. The model provides a better understanding about cyclist traffic assignment.

  3. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  4. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  5. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  6. Combinatorial Model Involving Stochastic Choices of Destination, Mode and Route

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Traffic assignment models are one of the basic tools for the analysis and design of transportation systems. However, the existing models have some defects. Considering the characteristics of Chinese urban mixed traffic and the randomness of transportation information, the author develops a combinatorial model involving stochastic choices of destination, mode and route. Its uniqueness and equivalance are also proved by the optimization theory.

  7. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...... modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation....... Initially, path generation techniques are implemented within a synthetic network to generate possible subjective choice sets considered by travelers. Next, ‘true model estimates’ and ‘postulated predicted routes’ are assumed from the simulation of a route choice model. Then, objective choice sets...

  8. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  9. A Maximum Entropy Fixed-Point Route Choice Model for Route Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis de Grange

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a stochastic route choice model for transit networks that explicitly addresses route correlation due to overlapping alternatives. The model is based on a multi-objective mathematical programming problem, the optimality conditions of which generate an extension to the Multinomial Logit models. The proposed model considers a fixed point problem for treating correlations between routes, which can be solved iteratively. We estimated the new model on the Santiago (Chile Metro network and compared the results with other route choice models that can be found in the literature. The new model has better explanatory and predictive power that many other alternative models, correctly capturing the correlation factor. Our methodology can be extended to private transport networks.

  10. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...... constraint-based choice set formation followed by compensatory choice. The model is applied to data focusing on habitual commuting route choice behavior in morning peak hours. Results show (i) the possibility of inferring spatiotemporal constraints from considered routes, (ii) the importance of incorporating...... spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in route choice models, and (iii) the linkage between spatiotemporal constraints and time saving, spatial and mnemonic abilities....

  11. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...... in the estimation of route choice models of public transport users based upon observed choices. Public transport route choice models have not benefitted from the same technological enhancements as car models because of the necessity (i) to collect additional information concerning lines and transfers, and (ii......) to overcome technical limitations related to GPS signals not always being retrievable in tunnels that are used by metro and urban rail systems. In this PhD project, a questionnaire to collect details about the actual route choice behaviour in public transport networks was developed and tested in a full scale...

  12. A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model...... additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links....

  13. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  14. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    ,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... of their inherent complexity and challenges. In particular, choice set generation and modeling route choice behavior while accounting for similarity across alternatives and heterogeneity across travelers are non-trivial challenges. This paper tackles these challenges by focusing on the revealed preferences of 5...

  15. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...... extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... collected in Cagliari, Italy, shows the feasibility of generating routes stochastically in a high-resolution network and calculating the correction factor. The model estimation with and without correction illustrates how the correction not only improves the goodness of fit but also turns illogical signs...

  16. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  17. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against

  18. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-

  19. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, J.D.; Thomas, T.; Berkum, van E.C.; Arem, van B.

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-

  20. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  1. Latent factors and route choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    by proposing a methodology for collecting and analyzing behavioural indicators and modelling route choices of individuals driving habitually from home to their workplace. A web-based survey was designed to collect attitudinal data and observed route choices among faculty and staff members of Turin Polytechnic......A behaviourally realistic description of the route choice process should consider variables that are both observable, such as travel time and cost, and unobservable, such as attitudes, perceptions, spatial abilities and network knowledge. This manuscript focuses on automotive route choice behaviour....... A reliable dataset was prepared through measures of internal consistency and sampling adequacy, and data were analyzed with a proper application of factor analysis to the route choice context. For the dataset obtained from the survey, six latent constructs affecting driver behaviour were extracted and scores...

  2. Latent variables and route choice behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by...... results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior....

  3. Choice of routing scheme considerably influences peak river discharge simulation in global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fang; Veldkamp, Ted; Schauberger, Bernhard; Willner, Sven; Yamazaki, Dai

    2017-04-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards. However, their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharges were compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, probably induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For most river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over more than 60% of the basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not present in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  4. A Two-Dimensional CA Traffic Model with Dynamic Route Choices Between Residence and Workplace

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.

  5. Latent factors and route choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    . A reliable dataset was prepared through measures of internal consistency and sampling adequacy, and data were analyzed with a proper application of factor analysis to the route choice context. For the dataset obtained from the survey, six latent constructs affecting driver behaviour were extracted and scores...... by proposing a methodology for collecting and analyzing behavioural indicators and modelling route choices of individuals driving habitually from home to their workplace. A web-based survey was designed to collect attitudinal data and observed route choices among faculty and staff members of Turin Polytechnic...... on each factor for each survey participant were calculated. Path generation algorithms were examined with respect to observed behaviour, through a measure of reproduction with deterministic techniques of the routes indicated in the answers to the survey. Results presented evidence that the majority...

  6. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  7. Air Cargo Transportation Route Choice Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obashi, Hiroshi; Kim, Tae-Seung; Oum, Tae Hoon

    2003-01-01

    Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

  8. Real-time routing control design for traffic networks with multi-route choices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗莉华; 葛颖恩; 陈继红; 张方伟

    2016-01-01

    This work considers those road networks in which there are multi-route choices for bifurcation-destination (or origin-destination) pairs, and designs a real-time variable message sign (VMS)-based routing control strategy in the model predictive control (MPC) framework. The VMS route recommendation provided by the traffic management authority is directly considered as the control variable, and the routing control model is established, in which a multi-dimensional control vector is introduced to describe the influence of route recommendations on flow distribution. In the MPC framework, a system optimum routing strategy with the constraints regarding drivers’ acceptability with recommended routes is designed, which can not only meet the traffic management authority’s control requirement but also improve drivers’ satisfaction with the route guidance system. The simulation carried out shows that the proposed routing control can effectively mitigate traffic congestion, reduces followers’ time delay, and improves drivers’ satisfaction with routing control in road networks.

  9. Expanding the applicability of random regret minimization for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    The discrete choice paradigm of random regret minimization (RRM) has been recently proposed in several choice contexts. In the route choice context, the paradigm has been used to model the choice among three routes and to formulate regret-based stochastic user equilibrium. However, in the same...... context the RRM literature has not confronted three major challenges: (i) accounting for similarities across alternative routes, (ii) analyzing choice set composition effects on choice probabilities, and (iii) comparing RRMbased models with advanced RUM-based models. This paper looks into RRM-based route...... choice models from these three perspectives by (i) proposing utility-based and regret-based correction terms to account for similarities across alternatives, (ii) analyzing the variation of choice set probabilities with the choice set composition, and (iii) comparing RRM-based route choice models with C...

  10. Modelling public transport route choice, with multiple access and egress modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; Romph, de E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  11. Generating route choice sets with operation information on metro networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the metro system has advanced into an efficient transport system and become the mainstay of urban passenger transport in many mega-cities. Passenger flow is the foundation of making and coordinating operation plans for the metro system, and therefore, a variety of studies were conducted on transit assignment models. Nevertheless route choice sets of passengers also play a paramount role in flow estimation and demand prediction. This paper first discusses the main route constraints of which the train schedule is the most important, that distinguish rail networks from road networks. Then, a two-step approach to generate route choice set in a metro network is proposed. Particularly, the improved approach introduces a route filtering with train operational information based on the conventional method. An initial numerical test shows that the proposed approach gives more reasonable route choice sets for scheduled metro networks, and, consequently, obtains more accurate results from passenger flow assignment. Recommendations for possible opportunities to apply this approach to metro operations are also provided, including its integration into a metro passenger flow assignment and simulation system in practice to help metro authorities provide more precise guidance information for passengers to travel.

  12. Efficiency of choice set generation methods for bicycle routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schussler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.

    2014-01-01

    The current study analyses the efficiency of choice set generation methods for bicycle routes and proposes the extension of cost functions to bicycle-oriented factors not limited to distance and time. Three choice set generation methods for route choice were examined in their ability to generate...... relevant and heterogeneous routes: doubly stochastic generation function, breadth first search on link elimination, and branch & bound algorithm. Efficiency of the methods was evaluated for a high-resolution network by comparing the performances with four multi-attribute cost functions accounting...... generated realistic routes, while the former outperformed in computation cost and the latter produced more heterogeneous routes....

  13. Pedestrian Route Choice by Iterated Equilibrium Search

    CERN Document Server

    Kretz, Tobias; Hofsäß, Ingmar

    2014-01-01

    In vehicular traffic planning it is a long standing problem how to assign demand such on the available model of a road network that an equilibrium with regard to travel time or generalized costs is realized. For pedestrian traffic this question can be asked as well. However, as the infrastructure of pedestrian dynamics is not a network (a graph), but two-dimensional, there is in principle an infinitely large set of routes. As a consequence none of the iterating assignment methods developed for road traffic can be applied for pedestrians. In this contribution a method to overcome this problem is briefly summarized and applied with an example geometry which as a result is enhanced with routes with intermediate destination areas of certain shape. The enhanced geometry is used in some exemplary assignment calculations.

  14. Efficiency of Choice Set Generation Methods for Bicycle Routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; W. Axhausen, Kay

    behaviour, observed choices and alternatives composing the choice set of each cyclist are necessary. However, generating the alternative choice sets can prove challenging. This paper analyses the efficiency of various choice set generation methods for bicycle routes in order to contribute to our...... understanding of choice generation for highly detailed networks. There is a substantial amount of literature that studies cyclists’ route choices. Most studies have been based on stated preference (SP) data (see, e.g., [1,2]). Although SP data have a lot of benefits there are some disadvantages, e.......g. the challenge to, without bias, predefine what cyclists consider when choosing a route. There have been few revealed preference (RP) studies reported in the literature (see, e.g., [1,2]). One disadvantage with RP data is that generating alternative routes can prove difficult. The benefit of collecting...

  15. Route choice behavior in a radial structured urban network: Do people choose the orbital or the route through the city center?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, Tom; Tutert, Bas

    2015-01-01

    We use a license plate survey to study route choice through the city center of a medium-sized Dutch city, in which car drivers can basically choose between the orbital and center ring. For a sample of 1397 trips, we fitted a multinomial logit regression model. According to this model, route choice i

  16. Children's route choice during active transportation to school : difference between shortest and actual route

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dessing, D.; Vries, S.I. (Sanne); Hegeman, G.; Mechelen, W. van; Pierik, F.H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study is to increase our understanding of environmental correlates that are associated with route choice during active transportation to school (ATS) by comparing characteristics of actual walking and cycling routes between home and school with the shortest possible r

  17. A Study of Driver’s Route Choice Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaowei Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers’ route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver’s route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver’s route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

  18. A study of driver's route choice behavior based on evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaowei; Ji, Yanjie; Du, Muqing; Deng, Wei

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers' route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver's route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver's route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

  19. Efficiency of Choice Set Generation Methods for Bicycle Routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; W. Axhausen, Kay

    travelling information with GPS loggers, compared to self-reported RP data, is more accurate geographic locations and routes. Also, the GPS traces give more reliable information on times and prevent trip underreporting, and it is possible to collect information on many trips by the same person without......With a growing interest in sustainable transport systems, the interest has increased on encouraging more cycling. To encourage cycling, it is important to identify which network attributes influence cyclists route choice and evaluate the trade-offs among these attributes. To analyse travel...... reporting fatigue. GPS data require nevertheless extensive post-processing and in some cases mode imputation. They also require a very detailed digital network to map the routes accurately, which can lead to high computation times during choice set generation, as well as issues with behavioural realism...

  20. Exploring en-route parking type and parking-search route choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Sholomo

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the first phase of an on-going research investigating the joint choice of parking type, parking facility and cruising-for-parking route. The importance of this issue derives from the significant share of cruising-for-parking traffic in urban areas, the relevance of parking...... policies as travel demand management tools, the growing interest in parking guidance information systems, and the need for representing parking-search behavior in traffic assignment and micro-simulation models. This paper addresses two main topics. First, the development of a methodological framework...... is introduced, including a behavioral model, its mathematical representation and the variable specification. Second, the design of a two-wave field survey accompanies the framework, with the aim of revealing the determinants of cruising-for-parking by retrieving both self-reported and GPS data. This paper...

  1. The Effects of the Emission Cost on Route Choices of International Container Ships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyangsook Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Maritime freight shipping has increased significantly and air pollution from international ships has grown accordingly, having serious environmental effects all over the world. This paper analyzes the effects of the emission cost on ocean route choices, focusing on international container ships. First, the paper formulates a freight network model that captures decisions and interactions of ocean carriers and port terminal operators in the maritime freight transport system. Then, the emission cost is calculated based on an activity-based approach as a component of the ocean transportation cost function. A case study is examined to find if the emission cost affects ocean route choices. The results indicate that the optimal ocean route and transportation cost are changed distinctively due to the emission cost. The research discusses how the emission cost plays a role in route changes and why ocean carriers have to consider these costs in their routing decisions.

  2. Bicriterion a priori route choice in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Andersen, Kim Allan; Pretolani, Daniele

    In recent years there has been a growing interest in using stochastic time-dependent (STD) networks as a modelling tool for a number of applications within such areas as transportation and telecommunications. It is known that an optimal routing policy does not necessarily correspond to a path......, but rather to a time-adaptive strategy. In some applications, however, it makes good sense to require that the routing policy corresponds to a loopless path in the network, that is, the time-adaptive aspect disappears and a priori route choice is considered. In this paper we consider bicriterion a priori...... route choice in STD networks, i.e. the problem of finding the set of efficient paths. Both expectation and min-max criteria are considered and a solution method based on the two-phase approach is devised. Experimental results reveal that the full set of efficient solutions can be determined on rather...

  3. Empirical Study and Modeling of Variable Message Signs on Route Choice Behavior%VMS对驾驶员路径选择影响的实证研究与建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王卫卫; 赵小梅; 李新刚; 谢东繁

    2013-01-01

    Variable message signs (VMS) frequently influence driver' s route choice behavior through providing instantaneous traffic information.It is one of the most important components of intelligent transportation system (ITS),and an efficient method to release traffic congestion.To quantitatively analyze the effects of VMS on drivers' route choice,this study makes the SP survey on drivers that have more than one year driving experience.Then,the data are analyzed by SPSS20.0,and the ordinal classification Logit models are used to reflect the route choice behavior.Finally,the conclusion is presented:route choice behavior according to VMS is highly related to driving style,travel time and accuracy of VMS.%可变信息板(VMS)通过发布实时的道路交通信息引导驾驶员的路径选择行为,是智能交通系统的重要组成部分之一,也是大城市缓解交通拥堵所采取的方法之一.为了定量分析VMS对驾驶员路径选择行为所产生的影响,本文采用SP调查法针对驾龄在1年以上的驾驶员进行问卷调查,使用SPSS20.0软件对调查数据进行分析,并在此基础上建立VMS诱导条件下驾驶员改变路径频率的有序多分类Logit模型,得出结论,驾驶员根据VMS所提供信息进行路径选择的主要影响因素为驾驶风格、出行时间、VMS可信度.

  4. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  5. Modeling Routing Overhead Generated by Wireless Reactive Routing Protocols

    CERN Document Server

    Javaid, Nadeem; Javaid, Akmal; Malik, Shahzad A

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we have modeled the routing over- head generated by three reactive routing protocols; Ad-hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV), Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and DYnamic MANET On-deman (DYMO). Routing performed by reactive protocols consists of two phases; route discovery and route maintenance. Total cost paid by a protocol for efficient routing is sum of the cost paid in the form of energy consumed and time spent. These protocols majorly focus on the optimization performed by expanding ring search algorithm to control the flooding generated by the mechanism of blind flooding. So, we have modeled the energy consumed and time spent per packet both for route discovery and route maintenance. The proposed framework is evaluated in NS-2 to compare performance of the chosen routing protocols.

  6. Modeling Routing Overhead Generated by Wireless Proactive Routing Protocols

    CERN Document Server

    Javaid, Nadeem; Javaid, Akmal; Malik, Shahzad A

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed framework consisting of modeling of routing overhead generated by three widely used proactive routing protocols; Destination-Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Fish-eye State Routing (FSR) and Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR). The questions like, how these protocols differ from each other on the basis of implementing different routing strategies, how neighbor estimation errors affect broadcast of route requests, how reduction of broadcast overhead achieves bandwidth, how to cope with the problem of mobility and density, etc, are attempted to respond. In all of the above mentioned situations, routing overhead and delay generated by the chosen protocols can exactly be calculated from our modeled equations. Finally, we analyze the performance of selected routing protocols using our proposed framework in NS-2 by considering different performance parameters; Route REQuest (RREQ) packet generation, End-to-End Delay (E2ED) and Normalized Routing Load (NRL) with respect to varyi...

  7. Traffic Information and Learning in Day-to-Day Route Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogers, E.A.I.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the research is to gain insight into the impact of traffic information on day-to-day route choice. The effects of both en-route information and ex-post information are studied. Special attention is given to three other important aspects in day-to-day route choice: learning from experienc

  8. Analysis of inertia thresholds based on real-world route choice data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    In the context of route choice, inertial behaviour shows that drivers make choices that are satisfactory rather than optimal. Consequently, drivers may not necessarily alter their choice when confronted with a travel time increase on the current choice or a travel time decrease of a choice

  9. Vehicle Routing Problem Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonči Carić

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Vehicle Routing Problem cannot always be solved exactly,so that in actual application this problem is solved heuristically.The work describes the concept of several concrete VRPmodels with simplified initial conditions (all vehicles are ofequal capacity and start from a single warehouse, suitable tosolve problems in cases with up to 50 users.

  10. Bicriterion a priori route choice in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Andersen, Kim Allan; Pretolani, Daniele

    In recent years there has been a growing interest in using stochastic time-dependent (STD) networks as a modelling tool for a number of applications within such areas as transportation and telecommunications. It is known that an optimal routing policy does not necessarily correspond to a path...... route choice in STD networks, i.e. the problem of finding the set of efficient paths. Both expectation and min-max criteria are considered and a solution method based on the two-phase approach is devised. Experimental results reveal that the full set of efficient solutions can be determined on rather...

  11. Bicriterion a priori route choice in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Pretolani, D; Andersen, K A

    2006-01-01

    In recent years there has been a growing interest in using stochastic time-dependent (STD) networks as a modelling tool for a number of applications within such areas as transportation and telecommunications. It is known that an optimal routing policy does not necessarily correspond to a path...... route choice in STD networks, i.e. the problem of finding the set of efficient paths. Both expectation and min-max criteria are considered and a solution method based on the two-phase approach is devised. Experimental results reveal that the full set of efficient solutions can be determined on rather...

  12. 基于时间剩余的随机后悔最小化路径选择%Route Choice Behaviour Based on Time Surplus Random Regret-minimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李梦甜; 纪翔峰; 张健; 冉斌

    2014-01-01

    出行者路径选择行为的正确性直接影响到交通规划“四阶段”模型最后一步交通分配的可靠性,对交通规划领域具有重要意义。近年来,为了克服出行者路径选择主要理论(随机效用最大化模型)存在的问题,Chorus提出了随机后悔最小化模型。本文借用经济学领域中的无差异曲线概念,建立基于时间剩余的出行时间和出行费用双重约束下的随机后悔最小化模型,并对模型中存在的路径重叠和路径感知方差问题进行改进。最后运用示例性路网进行数值检验。结果显示,改进模型更加合理,具有更好的可靠性。%The last step of conventional four-stage transport planning model, traffic assignment, is mainly based on the results of modeling the route choice behaviour of travellers. In order to overcome the drawbacks for the majority of travel choice model, random utility-maximization model, Chorus presented an alternative named random regret-minimization model. This paper proposes a dual-constrained random regret model rooted in the economic theory of indifference curve. Considering the case of overlapping and route perception variance, an improved formulation is provided, and the proposed model is tested in sample networks. Numerical results demonstrate the validity of the formulations.

  13. A Packet Routing Model for Computer Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Osunade

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The quest for reliable data transmission in today’s computer networks and internetworks forms the basis for which routing schemes need be improved upon. The persistent increase in the size of internetwork leads to a dwindling performance of the present routing algorithms which are meant to provide optimal path for forwarding packets from one network to the other. A mathematical and analytical routing model framework is proposed to address the routing needs to a substantial extent. The model provides schemes typical of packet sources, queuing system within a buffer, links and bandwidth allocation and time-based bandwidth generator in routing chunks of packets to their destinations. Principal to the choice of link are such design considerations as least-congested link in a set of links, normalized throughput, mean delay and mean waiting time and the priority of packets in a set of prioritized packets. These performance metrics were targeted and the resultant outcome is a fair, load-balanced network.

  14. A Multi-objective Programming Model of Route Choice of Emergency Vehicles before Travel%应急车辆出行前救援路径选择的多目标规划模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘杨; 云美萍; 彭国雄

    2009-01-01

    针对城市中应急车辆的救援路径优化问题,分析了基于交通信息中心的应急车辆最优路径的多目标属性,给出了随机网络中各属性的量化计算方法,以最小化出行时间,最大化行程时间可靠度为目标,考虑了通行可靠性、安全性、道路条件限制等因素,建立了应急车辆出行前最优路径选择的多目标规划模型.模型所求得的解是综合最优路径,反映了应急车辆路径选择的目标需求,克服了以往直接等同于图论中最短路径的缺陷,给出了算法,通过算例验证了模型的合理性和有效性.%To the route optimization of emergency vehicles in cities, a multi-objective programming model of optimal route choice with minimum travel time and maximum reliability was established. With consideration of the factors such as the capacity reliability, safety and road condition, the model displays the quantitative numeration of attributes in random network based on the analysis of the multi-objective attribute of the optimization of route choice problem of emergency vehicles in urban traffic information center.The model results in a comprehensive optimal route which can reflect the diversity feature of information demand for emergency vehicles. The disadvantage which the optimal path was always simplified to the shortest path problem was overcome.The solution algorithm was proposed. The rationality and validity of the model is demonstrated by one example.

  15. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow.

  16. Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Wichmann

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The discrete choice literature has evolved from the analysis of a choice of a single item from a fixed choice set to the incorporation of a vast array of more complex representations of preferences and choice set formation processes into choice models. Modern discrete choice models include rich specifications of heterogeneity, multi-stage processing for choice set determination, dynamics, and other elements. However, discrete choice models still largely represent socially isolated choice processes —individuals are not affected by the preferences of choices of other individuals. There is a developing literature on the impact of social networks on preferences or the utility function in a random utility model but little examination of such processes for choice set formation. There is also emerging evidence in the marketplace of the influence of friends on choice sets and choices. In this paper we develop discrete choice models that incorporate formal social network structures into the choice set formation process in a two-stage random utility framework. We assess models where peers may affect not only the alternatives that individuals consider or include in their choice sets, but also consumption choices. We explore the properties of our models and evaluate the extent of “errors” in assessment of preferences, economic welfare measures and market shares if network effects are present, but are not accounted for in the econometric model. Our results shed light on the importance of the evaluation of peer or network effects on inclusion/exclusion of alternatives in a random utility choice framework.

  17. Parental role models, gender and educational choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryler, H

    1998-09-01

    Parental role models are often put forward as an explanation for the choice of gender-atypical educational routes. This paper aims to test such explanations by examining the impact of family background variables like parental education and occupation, on choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. Using a sample of around 73,000 Swedish teenagers born between 1972 and 1976, girls' and boys' gender-atypical as well as gender-typical educational choices are analysed by means of logistic regression. Parents working or educated within a specific field increase the probability that a child will make a similar choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. This same-sector effect appeared to be somewhat stronger for fathers and sons, while no such same-sex influence was confirmed for girls. No evidence was found that, in addition to a same-sector effect, it matters whether parents' occupations represent gender-traditional or non-traditional models. Parents of the service classes or highly educated parents--expected to be the most gender egalitarian in attitudes and behaviours--have a positive influence upon children's choice of gender-atypical education.

  18. Using a Telepresence System to Investigate Route Choice Behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Kretz, Tobias; Arias, Antonia Pérez; Friedberger, Simon; Hanebeck, Uwe D

    2011-01-01

    A combination of a telepresence system and a microscopic traffic simulator is introduced. It is evaluated using a hotel evacuation scenario. Four different kinds of supporting information are compared, standard exit signs, floor plans with indicated exit routes, guiding lines on the floor and simulated agents leading the way. The results indicate that guiding lines are the most efficient way to support an evacuation but the natural behavior of following others comes very close. On another level the results are consistent with previously performed real and virtual experiments and validate the use of a telepresence system in evacuation studies. It is shown that using a microscopic traffic simulator extends the possibilities for evaluation, e.g. by adding simulated humans to the environment.

  19. A Novel Highly Dynamic Choice Routing Scheme for Mobile Adhoc Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Varghese

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to improve the performance of the traditional routing protocol for MANET such as DSR and AODV in terms of delay and overhead. The proposed routing scheme is called as Highly Dynamic Choice Routing (HDCR which adopts with the highly dynamic environment of MANET. The link residual life is estimated to reduce the link failure before forwarding data through a node. The velocity of the moving mode is considered while choosing the next forwarder node. This enables the HDCR to decrease the delay in the network. The proposed routing scheme reduces routing overhead and reduces the delay. This scheme reduces the link failure too. The performance is evaluated by using the simulation results obtained by using NS2 simulator.

  20. Deadlock Avoidance Policy in Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks with Free Choice Resource Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanna Ballal

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Efficient control schemes are required for effective cooperation of robot teams in a mobile wireless sensor network. If the robots (resources are also in charge of executing multiple simultaneous missions, then risks of deadlocks due to the presence of shared resources among different missions increase and have to be tackled. Discrete event control with deadlock avoidance has been used in the past for robot team coordination for the case of multi reentrant flowline models with shared resources. In this paper we present an analysis of deadlock avoidance for a generalized case of multi reentrant flow line systems (MRF called the Free Choice Multi Reentrant Flow Line systems (FMRF. In FMRF, some tasks have multiple resource choices; hence routing decisions have to be made and current results in deadlock avoidance for MRF do not hold. This analysis is based on the so-called Circular Waits (CW of the resources in the system. For FMRF, the well known notions of Critical Siphons and Critical Subsystems must be generalized and we redefine these objects for such systems. Our second contribution provides a matrix formulation that efficiently computes the objects required for deadlock avoidance in FMRF systems. A MAXWIP dispatching policy is formulated for deadlock avoidance in FMRF systems. According to this policy, deadlock in FMRF is avoided by limiting the work in progress (WIP in the critical subsystems of each CW. Implemented results of the proposed scheme in a WSN test-bed is presented in the paper.

  1. A new routing assignment model for Internet

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper builds a new traffic assignment model for Internet. The routing policy based on this model can realize load splitting in a network automatically, which overcomes the shortcoming of OSPF and satisfies the load balancing requirement of IETF.

  2. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  3. Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Classification vs. Discrete Choice Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesen, Joachim; Mueller, Klaus; Taneva, Bilyana; Zolliker, Peter

    Conjoint analysis is a family of techniques that originated in psychology and later became popular in market research. The main objective of conjoint analysis is to measure an individual's or a population's preferences on a class of options that can be described by parameters and their levels. We consider preference data obtained in choice-based conjoint analysis studies, where one observes test persons' choices on small subsets of the options. There are many ways to analyze choice-based conjoint analysis data. Here we discuss the intuition behind a classification based approach, and compare this approach to one based on statistical assumptions (discrete choice models) and to a regression approach. Our comparison on real and synthetic data indicates that the classification approach outperforms the discrete choice models.

  4. Model choice in nonnested families

    CERN Document Server

    Pereira, Basilio de Bragança

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses the problem of model choice when the statistical models are separate, also called nonnested. Chapter 1 provides an introduction, motivating examples and a general overview of the problem. Chapter 2 presents the classical or frequentist approach to the problem as well as several alternative procedures and their properties. Chapter 3 explores the Bayesian approach, the limitations of the classical Bayes factors and the proposed alternative Bayes factors to overcome these limitations. It also discusses a significance Bayesian procedure. Lastly, Chapter 4 examines the pure likelihood approach. Various real-data examples and computer simulations are provided throughout the text.

  5. An Improved Spray and Wait with Probability Choice Routing for Opportunistic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daru Pan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Opportunistic networks are sparse multi-hop ad hoc networks in which nodes exploit any pair-wise contact opportunities to share and forward messages. The main challenge for this environment is that conventional routing schemes do not work properly.  Among the existing Opportunistic Networks routing algorithms, the epidemic routing and probabilistic  routing could provide higher delivery  probability and shorter delays, but is with a large overhead, while the spay and wait routing could reduce the overhead, but is with low delivery probability and high delay.  This paper proposes the Spray and Wait with Probability Choice (SWPC routing, where continuous encounter time is used to describe the encounter opportunity; a delivery probability function is set up to direct the different number of copies to the destination during the spray phase; and a forwarding scheme is implemented in the wait phase. Simulation results show that proposed SWPC shows prominent superiority in the delivery rate, the average delay and the communication overhead, and adapted for the frequently disconnected opportunistic network.

  6. A Two-Phase Heuristic Algorithm for the Common Frequency Routing Problem with Vehicle Type Choice in the Milk Run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Lin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available High frequency and small lot size are characteristics of milk runs and are often used to implement the just-in-time (JIT strategy in logistical systems. The common frequency problem, which simultaneously involves planning of the route and frequency, has been extensively researched in milk run systems. In addition, vehicle type choice in the milk run system also has a significant influence on the operating cost. Therefore, in this paper, we simultaneously consider vehicle routing planning, frequency planning, and vehicle type choice in order to optimize the sum of the cost of transportation, inventory, and dispatch. To this end, we develop a mathematical model to describe the common frequency problem with vehicle type choice. Since the problem is NP hard, we develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm to solve the model. More specifically, an initial satisfactory solution is first generated through a greedy heuristic algorithm to maximize the ratio of the superior arc frequency to the inferior arc frequency. Following this, a tabu search (TS with limited search scope is used to improve the initial satisfactory solution. Numerical examples with different sizes establish the efficacy of our model and our proposed algorithm.

  7. Buffer Management and Hybrid Probability Choice Routing for Packet Delivery in Opportunistic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daru Pan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the features of long connection delays, frequent network partitions, and topology unsteadiness, the design of opportunistic networks faces the challenge of how to effectively deliver data based only on occasional encountering of nodes, where the conventional routing schemes do not work properly. This paper proposes a hybrid probability choice routing protocol with buffer management for opportunistic networks. A delivery probability function is set up based on continuous encounter duration time, which is used for selecting a better node to relay packets. By combining the buffer management utility and the delivery probability, a total utility is used to decide whether the packet should be kept in the buffer or be directly transmitted to the encountering node. Simulation results show that the proposed routing outperforms the existing one in terms of the delivery rate and the average delay.

  8. Mathematical Modeling of Routing in DHTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersch, Peter; Szabo, Robert

    Although most Distributed Hash Table (DHT) overlays are structurally similar to the "small-world" navigation model of Kleinberg - architectural and algorithmic details of different DHT variants differ significantly. Lookup performance of DHTs depends on a sets of different and often incompatible parameters, which makes analytical comparison rather difficult. The objective of this chapter is to review existing analytical models for DHT routing performance and to introduce a novel framework for the per-hop routing progress analysis of long-range DHT connections based on a logarithmic transformation. With the logarithmic transformation of the DHT metric space we analyze the distribution of the per-hop routing progress in general and also for the special cases of the deterministic and probabilistic power-law routing overlays. Based on the proposed analytical framework routing performance of DHTs can be described by a triple: the long-range connection density, its coefficient of variation and the number of short-range connections. Finally, we derive upper bound on the expected number of routing hops as a function of network size and the parameter triple.

  9. APPROXIMATE MODELS FOR FLOOD ROUTING

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For rapid calculation of the downstream effects» of the propagation of floods ... kinematic model and a nonlinear convection-diffusion model are extracted ... immensely to the development of this area of study. ... journal of science and technology, volume 23 no.1 2003 .... of change of flow rate RD (ratio of final normal flow.

  10. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  11. A Two-Stage Algorithm for Origin-Destination Matrices Estimation Considering Dynamic Dispersion Parameter for Route Choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Wang

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to simultaneously estimate origin-destination (OD matrix, link choice proportion, and dispersion parameter using partial traffic counts in a congested network. A non-linear optimization model is developed which incorporates a dynamic dispersion parameter, followed by a two-stage algorithm in which Generalized Least Squares (GLS estimation and a Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE assignment model are iteratively applied until the convergence is reached. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the proposed approach is implemented in a hypothetical network using input data with high error, and tested under a range of variation coefficients. The root mean squared error (RMSE of the estimated OD demand and link flows are used to evaluate the model estimation results. The results indicate that the estimated dispersion parameter theta is insensitive to the choice of variation coefficients. The proposed approach is shown to outperform two established OD estimation methods and produce parameter estimates that are close to the ground truth. In addition, the proposed approach is applied to an empirical network in Seattle, WA to validate the robustness and practicality of this methodology. In summary, this study proposes and evaluates an innovative computational approach to accurately estimate OD matrices using link-level traffic flow data, and provides useful insight for optimal parameter selection in modeling travelers' route choice behavior.

  12. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony o...

  13. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I - Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...

  14. Assessment of different route choice on commuters' exposure to air pollution in Taipei, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hsien-Chih; Chiueh, Pei-Te; Liu, Shi-Ping; Huang, Yu-Yang

    2017-01-01

    The purposes of this study are to develop a healthy commute map indicating cleanest route in Taipei metropolitan area for any given journey and to evaluate the pollutant doses exposed in different commuting modes. In Taiwan, there are more than 13.6 million motorcycles and 7.7 million vehicles among the 23 million people. Exposure to traffic-related air pollutants can thus cause adverse health effects. Moreover, increasing the level of physical activity during commuting and longer distances will result in inhalation of more polluted air. In this study, we utilized air pollution monitoring data (CO, SO2, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5) from Taiwan EPA's air quality monitoring stations in Taipei metropolitan area to estimate each pollutant exposure while commuting by different modes (motorcycling, bicycling, and walking). Spatial interpolation methods such as inverse distance weighting (IDW) were used to estimate each pollutant's distribution in Taipei metropolitan area. Three routes were selected to represent the variety of different daily commuting pathways. The cleanest route choice was based upon Dijkstra's algorithm to find the lowest cumulative pollutant exposure. The IDW interpolated values of CO, SO2, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 ranged from 0.42-2.2 (ppm), 2.6-4.8 (ppb), 17.8-42.9 (ppb), 32.4-65.6 (μg/m(3)), and 14.2-38.9 (μg/m(3)), respectively. To compare with the IDW results, concentration of particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, and PM1) along the motorcycle route was measured in real time. In conclusion, the results showed that the shortest commuting route for motorcyclists resulted in a much higher cumulative dose (PM2.5 3340.8 μg/m(3)) than the cleanest route (PM2.5 912.5 μg/m(3)). The mobile personal monitoring indicated that the motorcyclists inhaled significant high pollutants during commuting as a result of high-concentration exposure and short-duration peaks. The study could effectively present less polluted commuting routes for citizen health benefits.

  15. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...... constraints are related to travellers’ socio-economic characteristics and that path choice is related to minimizing time and avoiding congestion....

  16. mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Scale-Independent Streamflow Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Mai, Juliane; Rakovec, Oldrich; Cuntz, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Routing streamflow through a river network is a basic step within any distributed hydrologic model. It integrates the generated runoff and allows comparison with observed discharge at the outlet of a catchment. The Muskingum routing is a textbook river routing scheme that has been implemented in Earth System Models (e.g., WRF-HYDRO), stand-alone routing schemes (e.g., RAPID) , and hydrologic models (e.g., the mesoscale Hydrologic Model - mHM). Two types of implementations are mostly used. In the first one, the spatial routing resolution is fixed to that of the elevation model irrespective of the hydrologic modeling resolution. This implementation suffers from a high computational demand. In the second one, the spatial resolution is always applied at the hydrologic modelling resolution. This approach requires a scale-independent model behaviour which is often not evaluated. Here, we present the multiscale Routing Model (mRM) that provides a flexible choice of the routing resolution independent of the hydrologic modelling resolution. It incorporates a triangular unit hydrograph for overland flow routing and a Muskingum routing scheme for river routing. mRM provides a scale-independent model behaviour by exploiting the Multiscale Parameter Regionalisation (MPR) included in the open-source mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm). MPR reflects the structure of the landscape within the parametrisation of hydrologic processes. Effective model parameters are derived by upscaling of high-resolution (i.e., landscape resolution) parameters to the hydrologic modelling/routing resolution as proposed in Samaniego et al. 2010 and Kumar et al. 2013. mRM is coupled in this work to the state-of-the-art land surface model Noah-MP. Simulated streamflow is derived for the Ohio River (≈~525 000 km^2) during the period 1990-2000 at resolutions of 0.0625

  17. The optimal choice of medication administration route regarding intravenous, intramuscular, and subcutaneous injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jing-fen; Zhu, Ling-ling; Chen, Meng; Xu, Hui-min; Wang, Hua-fen; Feng, Xiu-qin; Zhu, Xiu-ping; Zhou, Quan

    2015-01-01

    Background Intravenous (IV), intramuscular (IM), and subcutaneous (SC) are the three most frequently used injection routes in medication administration. Comparative studies of SC versus IV, IM versus IV, or IM versus SC have been sporadically conducted, and some new findings are completely different from the dosage recommendation as described in prescribing information. However, clinicians may still be ignorant of such new evidence-based findings when choosing treatment methods. Methods A literature search was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE, and Web of Sciences™ Core Collection to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of SC, IV, and IM administration in head-to-head comparative studies. Results “SC better than IV” involves trastuzumab, rituximab, antitumor necrosis factor medications, bortezomib, amifostine, recombinant human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, recombinant interleukin-2, immunoglobulin, epoetin alfa, heparin, and opioids. “IV better than SC” involves ketamine, vitamin K1, and abatacept. With respect to insulin and ketamine, whether IV has advantages over SC is determined by specific clinical circumstances. “IM better than IV” involves epinephrine, hepatitis B immu-noglobulin, pegaspargase, and some antibiotics. “IV better than IM” involves ketamine, morphine, and antivenom. “IM better than SC” involves epinephrine. “SC better than IM” involves interferon-beta-1a, methotrexate, human chorionic gonadotropin, hepatitis B immunoglobulin, hydrocortisone, and morphine. Safety, efficacy, patient preference, and pharmacoeconomics are four principles governing the choice of injection route. Safety and efficacy must be the preferred principles to be considered (eg, epinephrine should be given intramuscularly during an episode of systemic anaphylaxis). If the safety and efficacy of two injection routes are equivalent, clinicians should consider more about patient preference and

  18. Solving a bi-objective vehicle routing problem under uncertainty by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Yousefi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW is an important problem with many real applications in a transportation problem. The optimum set of routes with the minimum distance and vehicles used is determined to deliver goods from a central depot, using a vehicle with capacity constraint. In the real cases, there are other objective functions that should be considered. This paper considers not only the minimum distance and the number of vehicles used as the objective function, the customer’s satisfaction with the priority of customers is also considered. Additionally, it presents a new model for a bi-objective VRPTW solved by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach, in which the decision maker determines optimistic aspiration levels for each objective function. Two meta-heuristic methods, namely simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA, are proposed to solve large-sized problems. Moreover, the experimental design is used to tune the parameters of the proposed algorithms. The presented model is verified by a real-world case study and a number of test problems. The computational results verify the efficiency of the proposed SA and GA.

  19. Flood routing modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Peters

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For the modelling of the flood routing in the lower reaches of the Freiberger Mulde river and its tributaries the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system HEC-RAS has been applied. Furthermore, this model was used to generate a database to train multilayer feedforward networks. To guarantee numerical stability for the hydrodynamic modelling of some 60 km of streamcourse an adequate resolution in space requires very small calculation time steps, which are some two orders of magnitude smaller than the input data resolution. This leads to quite high computation requirements seriously restricting the application – especially when dealing with real time operations such as online flood forecasting. In order to solve this problem we tested the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. First studies show the ability of adequately trained multilayer feedforward networks (MLFN to reproduce the model performance.

  20. The optimal choice of medication administration route regarding intravenous, intramuscular, and subcutaneous injection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin JF

    2015-07-01

    governing the choice of injection route. Safety and efficacy must be the preferred principles to be considered (eg, epinephrine should be given intramuscularly during an episode of systemic anaphylaxis. If the safety and efficacy of two injection routes are equivalent, clinicians should consider more about patient preference and pharmacoeconomics because patient preference will ensure optimal treatment adherence and ultimately improve patient experience or satisfaction, while pharmacoeconomic concern will help alleviate nurse shortages and reduce overall health care costs. Besides the principles, the following detailed factors might affect the decision: patient characteristics-related factors (body mass index, age, sex, medical status [eg, renal impairment, comorbidities], personal attitudes toward safety and convenience, past experience, perception of current disease status, health literacy, and socioeconomic status, medication administration-related factors (anatomical site of injection, dose, frequency, formulation characteristics, administration time, indication, flexibility in the route of administration, and health care staff/institution-related factors (knowledge, human resources.Conclusion: This updated review of findings of comparative studies of different injection routes will enrich the knowledge of safe, efficacious, economic, and patient preference-oriented medication administration as well as catching research opportunities in clinical nursing practice.Keywords: administration route, dosage and administration, efficacy, medication safety, patient preference, pharmacoeconomic

  1. Model multivehicle routing dengan persaingan pasar

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Multiple vehicle routing problem has potential real-word applications as it enables the study of strategic competition among private trucking companies in such ar- eas as the transportation of aggregates to construction sites. The multiple vehicle routing problem with profits and competition (MVRPPC) represents an extension of the vehicle routing problem in that it: incorporates competition into the routing process, maximizes profits rather than minimizes costs, and assumes that truc...

  2. Continental river routing model for water resources applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.; Sampson, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation describes a stand-alone runoff routing tool, mizuRoute, which post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic model or land surface model to produce spatially distributed streamflow at various spatial scales from headwater basins to continental-wide river systems. The tool utilizes vector-based river network data, which includes river segment lines and the associated drainage basin polygons. Streamflow estimates at any desired location in the river network can be easily extracted from the output of mizuRoute. The first step of the routing tool is hillslope routing, which uses a gamma distribution to construct a unit-hydrograph that represents the transport of runoff from a hillslope to an outlet of the catchment. The second step is river channel routing, which is performed with one of two routing scheme options: a) the kinematic wave tracking (KWT) routing procedure; and 2) the impulse response function - unit hydrograph (IRF-UH) routing procedure. This presentation demonstrate mizuRoute's capabilities to produce spatially distributed streamflow simulations based on the river network data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Fabric (GF) dataset, which contains over 54000 river segments across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We routed ensemble of 150 years runoff simulated with Variable Infiltration Capacity Model forced by climate data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. A brief analysis of the routing model parameter sensitivity is also presented.

  3. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  4. mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Land Surface and Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuntz, M.; Thober, S.; Mai, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Kumar, R.

    2015-12-01

    Routing streamflow through a river network is a basic step within any distributed hydrologic model. It integrates the generated runoff and allows comparison with observed discharge at the outlet of a catchment. The Muskingum routing is a textbook river routing scheme that has been implemented in Earth System Models (e.g., WRF-HYDRO), stand-alone routing schemes (e.g., RAPID), and hydrologic models (e.g., the mesoscale Hydrologic Model). Most implementations suffer from a high computational demand because the spatial routing resolution is fixed to that of the elevation model irrespective of the hydrologic modeling resolution. This is because the model parameters are scale-dependent and cannot be used at other resolutions without re-estimation. Here, we present the multiscale Routing Model (mRM) that allows for a flexible choice of the routing resolution. mRM exploits the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) included in the open-source mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) that relates model parameters to physiographic properties and allows to estimate scale-independent model parameters. mRM is currently coupled to mHM and is presented here as stand-alone Free and Open Source Software (FOSS). The mRM source code is highly modular and provides a subroutine for internal re-use in any land surface scheme. mRM is coupled in this work to the state-of-the-art land surface model Noah-MP. Simulation results using mRM are compared with those available in WRF-HYDRO for the Red River during the period 1990-2000. mRM allows to increase the routing resolution from 100m to more than 10km without deteriorating the model performance. Therefore, it speeds up model calculation by reducing the contribution of routing to total runtime from over 80% to less than 5% in the case of WRF-HYDRO. mRM thus makes discharge data available to land surface modeling with only little extra calculations.

  5. Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis

    1994-10-01

    This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the US Department of Energy`s Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model of the world supply and demand for liquid fuels, encompassing resource production, conversion processes, transportation, and consumption. The AFTM also includes fuel-switching behavior by incorporating multinomial logit-type equations for choice of alternative fuel vehicles and alternative fuels. This allows the model to solve for market shares of vehicles and fuels, as well as for fuel prices and quantities. The AFVC model includes fuel-flexible, bi-fuel, and dedicated fuel vehicles. For multi-fuel vehicles, the choice of fuel is subsumed within the vehicle choice framework, resulting in a nested multinomial logit design. The nesting is shown to be required by the different price elasticities of fuel and vehicle choice. A unique feature of the AFVC is that its parameters are derived directly from the characteristics of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies, together with a few key assumptions about consumer behavior. This not only establishes a direct link between assumptions and model predictions, but facilitates sensitivity testing, as well. The implementation of the AFVC model as a spreadsheet is also described.

  6. Developing a Model of Occupational Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egner, Joan Roos

    1974-01-01

    Rational and non-rational decision-making models of occupational choice are described. The Blau model provides an alternative to these. This model contains an occupational set of factors and a set related to the individual. Research supporting its conceptual utility and activities illustrating its pragmatic utility are discussed. (EAK)

  7. HYBRID TRUST MODEL FOR INTERNET ROUTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Rantala

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The current Internet is based on a fundamental assumption of reliability and good intent among actors inthe network. Unfortunately, unreliable and malicious behaviour is becoming a major obstacle forInternet communication. In order to improve the trustworthiness and reliability of the networkinfrastructure, we propose a novel trust model to be incorporated into BGP routing. In our approach,trust model is defined by combining voting and recommendation to direct trust estimation for neighbourrouters located in different autonomous systems. We illustrate the impact of our approach with cases thatdemonstrate the indication of distrusted paths beyond the nearest neighbours and the detection of adistrusted neighbour advertising a trusted path. We simulated the impact of weighting voted and directtrust in a rectangular grid of 15*15 nodes (autonomous systems with a randomly connected topology.

  8. Hybrid Trust Model for Internet Routing

    CERN Document Server

    Rantala, Pekka; Isoaho, Jouni

    2011-01-01

    The current Internet is based on a fundamental assumption of reliability and good intent among actors in the network. Unfortunately, unreliable and malicious behaviour is becoming a major obstacle for Internet communication. In order to improve the trustworthiness and reliability of the network infrastructure, we propose a novel trust model to be incorporated into BGP routing. In our approach, trust model is defined by combining voting and recommendation to direct trust estimation for neighbour routers located in different autonomous systems. We illustrate the impact of our approach with cases that demonstrate the indication of distrusted paths beyond the nearest neighbours and the detection of a distrusted neighbour advertising a trusted path. We simulated the impact of weighting voted and direct trust in a rectangular grid of 15*15 nodes (autonomous systems) with a randomly connected topology.

  9. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  10. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    ), which simultaneously finds optimal coefficients values (utility elements) and parameter values (distributed terms) in the utility function. The shape of the distributed terms is specified prior to the estimation; hence, the validity is not tested during the estimation. The proposed method, assesses...... for data, a literature review follows. Models applied for estimation of discrete choice models are described by properties and limitations, and relations between these are established. Model types are grouped into three classes, Hybrid choice models, Tree models and Latent class models. Relations between...... the shape of the distribution from data, by means of repetitive model estimation. In particular, one model was estimated for each sub-sample of data. The shape of distributions is assessed from between model comparisons. This is not to be regarded as an alternative to MSL estimation, rather...

  11. Generation and quality assessment of route choice sets in public transport networks by means of RP data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    discrete choice models, this paper focuses on the issue of choice set generation in public transport networks. Specifically, this paper describes the generation of choice sets for users of the Greater Copenhagen public transport system by applying a doubly stochastic path generation algorithm...

  12. On Performance Modeling of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khayam SyedAli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation studies have been the predominant method of evaluating ad hoc routing algorithms. Despite their wide use and merits, simulations are generally time consuming. Furthermore, several prominent ad hoc simulations report inconsistent and unrepeatable results. We, therefore, argue that simulation-based evaluation of ad hoc routing protocols should be complemented with mathematical verification and comparison. In this paper, we propose a performance evaluation framework that can be used to model two key performance metrics of an ad hoc routing algorithm, namely, routing overhead and route optimality. We also evaluate derivatives of the two metrics, namely, total energy consumption and route discovery latency. Using the proposed framework, we evaluate the performance of four prominent ad hoc routing algorithms: DSDV, DSR, AODV-LL, and Gossiping. We show that the modeled metrics not only allow unbiased performance comparison but also provide interesting insight about the impact of different parameters on the behavior of these protocols.

  13. A model of ant route navigation driven by scene familiarity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart Baddeley

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a model of visually guided route navigation in ants that captures the known properties of real behaviour whilst retaining mechanistic simplicity and thus biological plausibility. For an ant, the coupling of movement and viewing direction means that a familiar view specifies a familiar direction of movement. Since the views experienced along a habitual route will be more familiar, route navigation can be re-cast as a search for familiar views. This search can be performed with a simple scanning routine, a behaviour that ants have been observed to perform. We test this proposed route navigation strategy in simulation, by learning a series of routes through visually cluttered environments consisting of objects that are only distinguishable as silhouettes against the sky. In the first instance we determine view familiarity by exhaustive comparison with the set of views experienced during training. In further experiments we train an artificial neural network to perform familiarity discrimination using the training views. Our results indicate that, not only is the approach successful, but also that the routes that are learnt show many of the characteristics of the routes of desert ants. As such, we believe the model represents the only detailed and complete model of insect route guidance to date. What is more, the model provides a general demonstration that visually guided routes can be produced with parsimonious mechanisms that do not specify when or what to learn, nor separate routes into sequences of waypoints.

  14. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks. The...

  15. Simulation Study on Urban Evacuation with Different Route Choice Strategies%不同路径选择策略的城市疏散仿真研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴健宏; 翁文国; 倪顺江

    2013-01-01

    An urban evacuation simulation system was developed incorporating Agent model to GIS system. Agents choose routes by A* algorithm. Three types of route choice strategies were discussed. An evacuation scenario was set up based on the real data of city roads and population. The simulation results show that for the pedestrian evacuation by walking, the differences among evacuation time under different route choice strategies are small. While for the evacuation by cars, the differences are much obvious. Under different route choice strategies, the distributions of traffic are different, and there are different jam and bottleneck characteristics. Appropriate information strategies should be taken to guide traffic.%结合Agent模型和GIS系统构建了城市大范围人员疏散仿真系统,采用A*算法建立了Agent的路径选择模型,讨论了基于最短距离、最短时间和混合型的三种路径选择策略.还基于实际的城市道路和人口数据,构建了疏散场景进行模拟.模拟结果表明:步行方式下不同路径选择策略下总体疏散时间差别不大,而车辆方式下则差别很大.不同路径选择策略下交通流的分布呈现不同特征,道路的拥挤路段和节点也不一致,因此需要采取合适的诱导策略进行引导.

  16. Users guide for distributed routing rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawdy, D.R.; Schaake, John C.; Alley, William M.

    1978-01-01

    A computer program of a watershed model for routing urban flood discharges through a branched system of pipes or natural channels using rainfall as input has been developed and documented. The model combines soil-moisture-accounting and rainfall-excess components developed by Dawdy and others (1972) with the kinematic-wave routing method presented by Leclerc and Schaake (1973). (Woodard-USGS)

  17. Rerouting behaviour of travellers under exceptional traffic conditions: An empirical analysis of route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoop, V.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Van Zuylen, H.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates to what extent travellers change their route when faced with unexpected traffic situation. To this end, traffic data from days with serious incidents are analysed in this contribution. The flows retrieved from loop detectors on the routes past the incident and on alternative

  18. Influence of the Built Environment on Pedestrian Route Choices of Adolescent Girls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Merlin, Louis; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We examined the influence of the built environment on pedestrian route selection among adolescent girls. Portable global positioning system units, accelerometers, and travel diaries were used to identify the origin, destination, and walking routes of girls in San Diego, California, and Minneapolis...

  19. Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) MACHETE Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segui, John S.; Jennings, Esther H.; Clare, Loren P.

    2013-01-01

    Contact Graph Routing (CGR) for Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) space-based networks makes use of the predictable nature of node contacts to make real-time routing decisions given unpredictable traffic patterns. The contact graph will have been disseminated to all nodes before the start of route computation. CGR was designed for space-based networking environments where future contact plans are known or are independently computable (e.g., using known orbital dynamics). For each data item (known as a bundle in DTN), a node independently performs route selection by examining possible paths to the destination. Route computation could conceivably run thousands of times a second, so computational load is important. This work refers to the simulation software model of Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) for DTN Bundle Protocol in JPL's MACHETE simulation tool. The simulation model was used for performance analysis of CGR and led to several performance enhancements. The simulation model was used to demonstrate the improvements of ECGR over CGR as well as other routing methods in space network scenarios. ECGR moved to using earliest arrival time because it is a global monotonically increasing metric that guarantees the safety properties needed for the solution's correctness since route re-computation occurs at each node to accommodate unpredicted changes (e.g., traffic pattern, link quality). Furthermore, using earliest arrival time enabled the use of the standard Dijkstra algorithm for path selection. The Dijkstra algorithm for path selection has a well-known inexpensive computational cost. These enhancements have been integrated into the open source CGR implementation. The ECGR model is also useful for route metric experimentation and comparisons with other DTN routing protocols particularly when combined with MACHETE's space networking models and Delay Tolerant Link State Routing (DTLSR) model.

  20. Nonsteady flow routing in Landlab: implications for modeling watershed evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, J. M.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

    2016-12-01

    Many traditional landscape evolution models assume steady-state when modeling hydrology: water discharge is calculated a function of precipitation and drainage area, and is constant throughout the duration of a precipitation event. Predictive rainfall-runoff models occupy the other end of the spectrum, where discharge is calculated a function of physical parameters such as a surface roughness and channel slope. These physically-based models are often used for short-term modeling experiments, as explicit solutions of the shallow water equations can be computationally expensive. A physically-based, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model used for flood inundation has been built into the new Landlab modeling framework. This algorithm has been optimized, limiting instabilities when solved across longer time scales and steeper terrains. Previous work in landscape evolution modeling has shown that choice of hydrology method (nonsteady versus steady-state) can impact resulting landforms at geomorphic steady-state. This work evolves landforms from the same initial condition, driven by the same rate of tectonic uplift. The nonsteady overland flow and steady-state flow routing methods are run across these landscapes coupled with a stream power incision component. Previous results suggest that, given certain stream power parameters, modeled nonsteady peak discharges exceed predicted steady-state discharge values at the outlet, although total incision depths are greater in the steady-state hydrology case. These differences in peak discharge and erosion rates have implications for evolved basin relief, with greater overall relief in landscapes dominated by nonsteady hydrology. In addition to basin relief, we predict differences in channel concavities, due to increasing downstream erosion. The morphologic signatures of the two different hydrology regimes will be explored, and used to make interpretations about long-term landscape evolution.

  1. Route Choice by the VLCCS from Middle East Gulf to North Atlantic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Risto Laulajainen

    2009-01-01

    <正>Three alternatives for round voyages between the Middle East Gulf and North Atlantic,Cape/Cape,Suez/Cape and Suez/Suez(laden/ballast),are compared from actor perspective.Ship owners benefit from long routes when rates are not rising steeply.Refineries minimize logistics costs by selecting short routes.Traders also should opt for them,provided that their investment horizontal equals the laden leg.In the real world,Northwest Europe selects 10 pet Suez and the US Gulf 10 pet Cape.East Coast Canada is route neutral.Cargos from West Africa tilt this equation in favor of the Cape/Cape alternative.

  2. Indoor 3D Route Modeling Based On Estate Spatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Wen, Y.; Jiang, J.; Huang, W.

    2014-04-01

    Indoor three-dimensional route model is essential for space intelligence navigation and emergency evacuation. This paper is motivated by the need of constructing indoor route model automatically and as far as possible. By comparing existing building data sources, this paper firstly explained the reason why the estate spatial management data is chosen as the data source. Then, an applicable method of construction three-dimensional route model in a building is introduced by establishing the mapping relationship between geographic entities and their topological expression. This data model is a weighted graph consist of "node" and "path" to express the spatial relationship and topological structure of a building components. The whole process of modelling internal space of a building is addressed by two key steps: (1) each single floor route model is constructed, including path extraction of corridor using Delaunay triangulation algorithm with constrained edge, fusion of room nodes into the path; (2) the single floor route model is connected with stairs and elevators and the multi-floor route model is eventually generated. In order to validate the method in this paper, a shopping mall called "Longjiang New City Plaza" in Nanjing is chosen as a case of study. And the whole building space is constructed according to the modelling method above. By integrating of existing path finding algorithm, the usability of this modelling method is verified, which shows the indoor three-dimensional route modelling method based on estate spatial data in this paper can support indoor route planning and evacuation route design very well.

  3. Partially dynamic vehicle routing - models and algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Allan; Madsen, Oli B.G.; Solomon, M.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we propose a framework for dynamic routing systems based on their degree of dynamism. Next, we consider its impact on solution methodology and quality. Specifically, we introduce the Partially Dynamic Travelling Repairman Problem and describe several dynamic policies to minimize rou...

  4. Optimization Model for Headway of a Suburban Bus Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to relatively low passenger demand, headways of suburban bus route are usually longer than those of urban bus route. Actually it is also difficult to balance the benefits between passengers and operators, subject to the service standards from the government. Hence the headway of a suburban bus route is usually determined on the empirical experience of transport planners. To cope with this problem, this paper proposes an optimization model for designing the headways of suburban bus routes by minimizing the operating and user costs. The user costs take into account both the waiting time cost and the crowding cost. The feasibility and validity of the proposed model are shown by applying it to the Route 206 in Jiangning district, Nanjing city of China. Weightages of passengers’ cost and operating cost are further discussed, considering different passenger flows. It is found that the headway and objective function are affected by the weightages largely.

  5. Effects of competing environmental variables and signage on route-choices in simulated everyday and emergency wayfinding situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar, Elisângela; Rebelo, Francisco; Noriega, Paulo; Duarte, Emília; Mayhorn, Christopher B

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the relative influence of environmental variables (corridor width and brightness) and signage (directional and exit signs), when presented in competition, on participants' route-choices in two situational variables (everyday vs. emergency), during indoor wayfinding in virtual environments. A virtual reality-based methodology was used. Thus, participants attempted to find a room (everyday situation) in a virtual hotel, followed by a fire-related emergency egress (emergency situation). Different behaviours were observed. In the everyday situation, for no-signs condition, participants choose mostly the wider and brighter corridors, suggesting a heavy reliance on the environmental affordances. Conversely, for signs condition, participants mostly complied with signage, suggesting a greater reliance on the signs rather than on the environmental cues. During emergency, without signage, reliance on environmental affordances seems to be affected by the intersection type. In the sign condition, the reliance on environmental affordances that started strong decreases along the egress route.

  6. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  7. Study on model and algorithm of inventory routing problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fengjiao

    Vehicle routing problem(VRP) is one of important research in the logistics system. Nowadays, there are many researches on the VRP, but their don't consider the cost of inventory. Thus, the conclusion doesn't meet reality. This paper studies on the inventory routing problem (IRP)and uses one target function to describe these two conflicting problems, which are very important in the logistics optimization. The paper establishes the model of single client and many clients' inventory routing problem. An optimizing iterative algorithm is presented to solve the model. According to the model we can confirm the best quantity, efficiency and route of delivery. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the efficiency of model and algorithm.

  8. ON PROBABILITY FUNCTION OF TRIP ROUTE CHOICE IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM OF CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Nefedof

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The results of statistical processing of experimental research data in Kharkiv, aimed at determining the relation between the passenger trip choice probability and the actual vehicles waiting time at bus terminals are presented.

  9. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fang; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, Jacob; Ostberg, Sebastian; Willner, Sven; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gosling, Simon N.; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Portmann, Felix T.; Leng, Gobias; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Hanasaki, Naota; Biemans, Hester; Gerten, Dieter; Satoh, Yusuke; Pokhrel, Yadu; Stacke, Tobias; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Ducharne, Agnes; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun; Yamazaki, Dai

    2017-07-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  10. A model for routing problem in quay management problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zirour, Mourad; Oughalime, Ahmed; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Ismail, Wan Rosmanira; Omar, Khairuddin

    2014-06-01

    Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP), like Vehicle Routing Problem, is one of those optimization problems that interests many researchers in the last decades. The Quay Management Problem is a specific problem which could be presented as a QAP which involves a double assignment of customers and products toward loading positions using lifting trucks. This study focuses on the routing problem while delivering the customers' demands. In this problem, lifting trucks will route around the storage sections to collect the products then deliver to the customers who are assigned to specific loading positions. The objective of minimizing the residence time for each customer is sought. This paper presents the problem and the proposed model.

  11. 基于认知活动的驾驶员路径选择行为影响因素分析%The analysis of the factors affecting drivers′ route-choice behavior based on cognitive activity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕丹丹; 王晓原; 马立云; 陈绍志

    2012-01-01

    The research of the drivers′ route choice behavior has always been an important part of the urban road traffic system research.However,few studies have been done from the perspective of cognitive activity on factors impacting on drivers′ route-choice behavior at present.View of this,the factors impacting on drivers′ route-choice behavior are studied based on driver cognitive psychology,the psycho-physical integrated cognitive activity chain is studied under the stimulus of multi-resource information,which can provide a theoretical basis for the further study of modeling and simulation of the drivers′ route-choice behavior.%驾驶员路径选择行为研究是城市道路交通系统研究的重要内容.从驾驶员认知心理角度,对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响因素进行了分析,并研究了多源信息刺激下驾驶员任务集聚、心理-物理综合认知拓扑结构和认知活动链,为深入研究驾驶员路径选择问题提供了理论基础.

  12. Demand and routing models for urban goods movement simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Polimeni, Antonio; Russo, Francesco; Vitetta, Antonino

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a macro-architecture for simulating goods movements in an urban area. Urban goods supply is analysed when the retailer is the decision-maker and chooses to supply his/her shop. Two components are considered: demand in terms of goods supply and vehicle routing with constraints to simulate goods movements. To analyse demand we consider a multi-step model, while to analyse goods movements a Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (VRPTW) is formalized. We exa...

  13. Multiobjective Route Planning Model and Algorithm for Emergency Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-mei Gai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to model route planning problem for emergency logistics management taking both route timeliness and safety into account, a multiobjective mathematical model is proposed based on the theories of bounded rationality. The route safety is modeled as the product of safety through arcs included in the path. For solving this model, we convert the multiobjective optimization problem into its equivalent deterministic form. We take uncertainty of the weight coefficient for each objective function in actual multiobjective optimization into account. Finally, we develop an easy-to-implement heuristic in order to gain an efficient and feasible solution and its corresponding appropriate vector of weight coefficients quickly. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the models and algorithms presented in this paper.

  14. Route Assessment for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixia Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated route assessment approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper, where various sources of uncertainties are well kept and modeled by cloud theory. Firstly, a systemic criteria framework incorporating models for scoring subcriteria is developed. Then, the cloud model is introduced to represent linguistic variables, and survivability probability histogram of each route is converted into normal clouds by cloud transformation, enabling both randomness and fuzziness in the assessment environment to be managed simultaneously. Finally, a new way to measure the similarity between two normal clouds satisfying reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity, and overlapping is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed route assessment approach outperforms fuzzy logic based assessment approach with regard to feasibility, reliability, and consistency with human thinking.

  15. HYPERstream: a multi-scale framework for streamflow routing in large-scale hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Di Lazzaro, Michele; Zarlenga, Antonio; Majone, Bruno; Bellin, Alberto; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-05-01

    We present HYPERstream, an innovative streamflow routing scheme based on the width function instantaneous unit hydrograph (WFIUH) theory, which is specifically designed to facilitate coupling with weather forecasting and climate models. The proposed routing scheme preserves geomorphological dispersion of the river network when dealing with horizontal hydrological fluxes, irrespective of the computational grid size inherited from the overlaying climate model providing the meteorological forcing. This is achieved by simulating routing within the river network through suitable transfer functions obtained by applying the WFIUH theory to the desired level of detail. The underlying principle is similar to the block-effective dispersion employed in groundwater hydrology, with the transfer functions used to represent the effect on streamflow of morphological heterogeneity at scales smaller than the computational grid. Transfer functions are constructed for each grid cell with respect to the nodes of the network where streamflow is simulated, by taking advantage of the detailed morphological information contained in the digital elevation model (DEM) of the zone of interest. These characteristics make HYPERstream well suited for multi-scale applications, ranging from catchment up to continental scale, and to investigate extreme events (e.g., floods) that require an accurate description of routing through the river network. The routing scheme enjoys parsimony in the adopted parametrization and computational efficiency, leading to a dramatic reduction of the computational effort with respect to full-gridded models at comparable level of accuracy. HYPERstream is designed with a simple and flexible modular structure that allows for the selection of any rainfall-runoff model to be coupled with the routing scheme and the choice of different hillslope processes to be represented, and it makes the framework particularly suitable to massive parallelization, customization according to

  16. Evacuation Network Optimization Model with Lane-Based Reversal and Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sometimes, the evacuation measure may seem to be the best choice as an emergency response. To enable an efficiency evacuation, a network optimization model which integrates lane-based reversal design and routing with intersection crossing conflict elimination for evacuation is constructed. The proposed bilevel model minimizes the total evacuation time to leave the evacuation zone. A tabu search algorithm is applied to find an optimal lane reversal plan in the upper-level. The lower-level utilizes a simulated annealing algorithm to get two types of “a single arc for an intersection approach” and “multiple arcs for an intersection approach” lane-based route plans with intersection crossing conflict elimination. An experiment of a nine-intersection evacuation zone illustrates the validity of the model and the algorithm. A field case with network topology of Jianye District around the Nanjing Olympics Sports Center is studied to show the applicability of this algorithm.

  17. Reverse stream flow routing by using Muskingum models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amlan Das

    2009-06-01

    Reverse stream flow routing is a procedure that determines the upstream hydrograph given the downstream hydrograph. This paper presents the development of methodology for Muskingum models parameter estimation for reverse stream flow routing. The standard application of the Muskingum models involves calibration and prediction steps. The calibration step must be performed before the prediction step. The calibration step in a reverse stream flow routing system uses the outflow hydrograph and the inflow at the end period of the inflow hydrograph as the known inputs and Muskingum model parameters are determined by minimizing the error between the remaining portion of the predicted and observed inflow hydrographs. In the present study, methodology for parameter estimation is developed which is based on the concept of minimizing the sum of squares of normalized difference between observed and computed inflows subject to the satisfaction of the routing equation. The parameter estimation problems are formulated as constrained nonlinear optimization problem, and a computational scheme is developed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. The performance evaluation tests indicate that a fresh calibration is necessary to use the Muskingum models for reverse stream flow routing.

  18. The Stay/Switch Model of Concurrent Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonall, James S.

    2009-01-01

    This experiment compared descriptions of concurrent choice by the stay/switch model, which says choice is a function of the reinforcers obtained for staying at and for switching from each alternative, and the generalized matching law, which says choice is a function of the total reinforcers obtained at each alternative. For the stay/switch model…

  19. Estimating hybrid choice models with the new version of Biogeme

    OpenAIRE

    Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    Hybrid choice models integrate many types of discrete choice modeling methods, including latent classes and latent variables, in order to capture concepts such as perceptions, attitudes, preferences, and motivatio (Ben-Akiva et al., 2002). Although they provide an excellent framework to capture complex behavior patterns, their use in applications remains rare in the literature due to the difficulty of estimating the models. In this talk, we provide a short introduction to hybrid choice model...

  20. Rationality in a general model of choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somdeb Lahiri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider choice correspondences which may be empty-valued. We study conditions under which such choice correspondences are rational, transitively rational, partially rational, partially almost transitive rational, partially almost quasi-transitive rational. This provides fresh impetus and understanding of multi-criteria decision making.

  1. Understanding individual routing behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Antonio; Stanojevic, Rade; Papagiannaki, Dina; Rodriguez, Pablo; González, Marta C

    2016-03-01

    Knowing how individuals move between places is fundamental to advance our understanding of human mobility (González et al. 2008 Nature 453, 779-782. (doi:10.1038/nature06958)), improve our urban infrastructure (Prato 2009 J. Choice Model. 2, 65-100. (doi:10.1016/S1755-5345(13)70005-8)) and drive the development of transportation systems. Current route-choice models that are used in transportation planning are based on the widely accepted assumption that people follow the minimum cost path (Wardrop 1952 Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. 1, 325-362. (doi:10.1680/ipeds.1952.11362)), despite little empirical support. Fine-grained location traces collected by smart devices give us today an unprecedented opportunity to learn how citizens organize their travel plans into a set of routes, and how similar behaviour patterns emerge among distinct individual choices. Here we study 92 419 anonymized GPS trajectories describing the movement of personal cars over an 18-month period. We group user trips by origin-destination and we find that most drivers use a small number of routes for their routine journeys, and tend to have a preferred route for frequent trips. In contrast to the cost minimization assumption, we also find that a significant fraction of drivers' routes are not optimal. We present a spatial probability distribution that bounds the route selection space within an ellipse, having the origin and the destination as focal points, characterized by high eccentricity independent of the scale. While individual routing choices are not captured by path optimization, their spatial bounds are similar, even for trips performed by distinct individuals and at various scales. These basic discoveries can inform realistic route-choice models that are not based on optimization, having an impact on several applications, such as infrastructure planning, routing recommendation systems and new mobility solutions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  2. Forward modeling. Route to electromagnetic inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groom, R.; Walker, P. [PetRos EiKon Incorporated, Ontario (Canada)

    1996-05-01

    Inversion of electromagnetic data is a topical subject in the literature, and much time has been devoted to understanding the convergence properties of various inverse methods. The relative lack of success of electromagnetic inversion techniques is partly attributable to the difficulties in the kernel forward modeling software. These difficulties come in two broad classes: (1) Completeness and robustness, and (2) convergence, execution time and model simplicity. If such problems exist in the forward modeling kernel, it was demonstrated that inversion can fail to generate reasonable results. It was suggested that classical inversion techniques, which are based on minimizing a norm of the error between data and the simulated data, will only be successful when these difficulties in forward modeling kernels are properly dealt with. 4 refs., 5 figs.

  3. Urban Transit Modal and Route Choice with Generalized Costs%综合成本下城市公交出行方式与线路选择

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李玲; 李军

    2011-01-01

    提出了综合考虑换乘次数、出行时间、出行距离、步行距离、等待时间等公交出行因素的广义时间计算方法,给出了基于广义时间和出行费用的公交出行效用函数,构建了考虑轨道交通和常规公交的巢式Logit公交线路选择模型。以广州为例,给出了通过问卷调查进行参数估计的方法,模型计算结果和二次调查数据的比较表明文中的方法可准确计算公交乘客对出行方式和线路的选择。%The generalized transit travel time is proposed in consideration of number of transfers, travel time, travel distance, walking distance, waiting time, etc; and the utility function of different transits are constructed according to the generalized transit travel time and travel cost. The nested-logit choice model is proposed to separate the modal choice and route choice. The case study of Guangzhou City is presented whose model parameters are obtained though questionnaire survey. A comparison between model results and survey data shows that the proposed model produces feasible and reliable results.

  4. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  5. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  6. Flying Ad-Hoc Networks: Routing Protocols, Mobility Models, Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muneer Bani Yassein

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Flying Ad-Hoc Networks (FANETs is a group of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs which completed their work without human intervention. There are some problems in this kind of networks: the first one is the communication between (UAVs. Various routing protocols introduced classified into three categories, static, proactive, reactive routing protocols in order to solve this problem. The second problem is the network design, which depends on the network mobility, in which is the process of cooperation and collaboration between the UAV. Mobility model of FANET is introduced in order to solve this problem. In Mobility Model, the path and speed variations of the UAV and represents their position are defined. As of today, Random Way Point Model is utilized as manufactured one for Mobility in the greater part of recreation situations. The Arbitrary Way Point model is not relevant for the UAV in light of the fact that UAV do not alter their course and versatility, speed quickly at one time because of this reason, we consider more practical models, called Semi-Random Circular Movement (SRCM Mobility Model. Also, we consider different portability models, Mission Plan-Based (MPB Mobility Model, Pheromone-Based Model. Moreover, Paparazzi Mobility Model (PPRZM. This paper presented and discussed the main routing protocols and main mobility models used to solve the communication, cooperation, and collaboration in FANET networks.

  7. Drivers' Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior and System Evolution Under Forecast Information%预测信息下的驾驶员逐日路径选择行为与系统演化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘诗序; 关宏志; 严海

    2012-01-01

    运用微观仿真方法,研究预测信息作用下驾驶员逐日路径选择行为与路网交通流的演化.首先,分析了目前研究存在的不足,针对预测信息情形,设计了一种可行的行程时间预测方法,根据驾驶员逐日路径选择过程,建立了理解行程时间更新模型和路径选择模型.然后,在2条平行路径的简单路网中,仿真了预测信息条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择过程,分析了模型参数取值不同时路径流量随时间演化的波动性和路网系统的效率.结果表明:路网流量的波动性和系统效率都与驾驶员对预测信息的依赖程度和预测模型参数有关,且二者的变化规律相似.最后,以系统最优为目标,给出了预测模型参数的最佳取值范围.%Based on microscopic simulation,drivers' day-to-day route choice behavior and evolution of network flow under forecast information are investigated.First,current reports hardly research drivers' day-to-day route choice under forecast information.A feasible travel time prediction method is designed.A model updating the drivers' perceived travel time and a route choice model are developed according to the drivers' day-to-day route choice process.Then,by establishing a simple road network with two parallel routes,the drivers' day-to-day route choice is simulated under forecast information.The fluctuation of route flow and efficiency of the system are analyzed when the parameters take different values.Results show that the fluctuation of network flow and efficiency of network are both related to drivers' reliance on the information and forecast model's parameters.Moreover,their changes are similar.Finally,the parameter's optimal range is obtained.

  8. Tramp Ship Routing and Scheduling - Models, Methods and Opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vilhelmsen, Charlotte; Larsen, Jesper; Lusby, Richard Martin

    and scheduling. This includes a review on existing literature, modelling approaches, solution methods as well as an analysis of the current status and future opportunities of research within tramp ship routing and scheduling. We argue that rather than developing new solution methods for the basic routing...... to mergers, pooling, and collaboration efforts between shipping companies, the fleet sizes have grown to a point where manual planning is no longer adequate in a market with tough competition and low freight rates. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive introduction to tramp ship routing...... and scheduling problem, focus should now be on extending this basic problem to include additional real-world complexities and develop suitable solution methods for those extensions. Such extensions will enable more tramp operators to benefit from the solution methods while simultaneously creating new...

  9. A Neurocomputational Model of Altruistic Choice and Its Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutcherson, Cendri A; Bushong, Benjamin; Rangel, Antonio

    2015-07-15

    We propose a neurocomputational model of altruistic choice and test it using behavioral and fMRI data from a task in which subjects make choices between real monetary prizes for themselves and another. We show that a multi-attribute drift-diffusion model, in which choice results from accumulation of a relative value signal that linearly weights payoffs for self and other, captures key patterns of choice, reaction time, and neural response in ventral striatum, temporoparietal junction, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. The model generates several novel insights into the nature of altruism. It explains when and why generous choices are slower or faster than selfish choices, and why they produce greater response in TPJ and vmPFC, without invoking competition between automatic and deliberative processes or reward value for generosity. It also predicts that when one's own payoffs are valued more than others', some generous acts may reflect mistakes rather than genuinely pro-social preferences.

  10. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    by a mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...

  11. Children's Conceptions of Career Choice and Attainment: Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…

  12. Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations Are Misclassified

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an empirical occupational choice model that corrects for misclassification in occupational choices and measurement error in occupation-specific work experience. The model is used to estimate the extent of measurement error in occupation data and quantify the bias that results from ignoring measurement error in occupation codes…

  13. A new routing assignment model for Internet

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHI; Caixia

    2001-01-01

    Karman, Th., Zur theorie der spanungszustnde in plastischen und sandartigen medion, Nachr. Gesellsch. Wissensch., Gttingen, 1909.[17]Szczepinski, W., Introduction to the Mechanics of Plastic Forming of Metals, Netherlands: Sijthoff and Noordhoff, 1979.[18]Chen, W. F., Limit Analysis and Soil Plasticity, New York: Elsevier, 1975.[19]Yu, M. H., He, L. N., A new model and theory on yield and failure of materials under complex stress state, Mechanical Behaviors of Materials~6, Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1991, 3: 841—846.[20]Yu, M. H., New System of Strength Theory (in Chinese), Xi'an: Xi'an Jiaotong Universitry Press, 1992.[21]Yu, M. H., He, L. N., Song, L. Y., Twin shear stress theory and its generalization, Scientia Sinica (Science in China), Series A, 1985, 28(11): 1174—1183.[22]Yu, M. H., Yang, S. Y. et al., Unified elasto-plastic associated and non-associated constitutive model and its engineering applications, Computers and Structures, 1999, 71: 627—636.[23]Ma, G. W., Shoji, I., Plastic limit analysis of circular plates with respect to unified yield criterion, Int. J. Mech. Sci., 1998, 40(10): 963.[24]Ma, G. W., Hao, H., Unified plastic limit analyses of circular plates under arbitrary load, Journal of Applied Mechanics, ASME, 1999, 66(2): 568.[25]Qiang, H. F., Lu, N., Liu, B. J., Unified solutions of crack tip plastic zone under small scale yielding, Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, (in Chinese with English abstract), 1999, 35(1): 34—38.[26]Yang, S. Y., Yu, M. H., Constitutive descriptions of multiphase poropus media, Acta Mechanica Sinica (in Chinese with English abstract), 2000, 32(1):11—24.[27]Yang, S. Y., Yu, M. H., An elasto-plastic damage model for saturated and unsaturated geomaterials, Acta Mechanica Sinica (in Chinese with English abstract), 2000, 32(2): 198—206.[28]Cheng, H. X., Li, J. J., Zhang, G. S. et al., Finite element analysis program system HAJIF(X), Chinese Journal of

  14. Hyperbolic value addition and general models of animal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, J E

    2001-01-01

    Three mathematical models of choice--the contextual-choice model (R. Grace, 1994), delay-reduction theory (N. Squires & E. Fantino, 1971), and a new model called the hyperbolic value-added model--were compared in their ability to predict the results from a wide variety of experiments with animal subjects. When supplied with 2 or 3 free parameters, all 3 models made fairly accurate predictions for a large set of experiments that used concurrent-chain procedures. One advantage of the hyperbolic value-added model is that it is derived from a simpler model that makes accurate predictions for many experiments using discrete-trial adjusting-delay procedures. Some results favor the hyperbolic value-added model and delay-reduction theory over the contextual-choice model, but more data are needed from choice situations for which the models make distinctly different predictions.

  15. Performance Analysis of MANET Routing Protocols in Different Mobility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuj K. Gupta

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET is basically called as a network without any central administration or fixed infrastructure. It consists of a number of mobile nodes that use to send data packets through a wireless medium. There is always a need of a good routing protocol in order to establish the connection between mobile nodes since they possess the property of dynamic changing topology. Further, in all the existing routing protocols, mobility of a node has always been one of the important characteristics in determining the overall performance of the ad hoc network. Thus, it is essential to know about various mobility models and their effect on the routing protocols. In this paper, we have made an attempt to compare different mobility models and provide an overview of their current research status. The main focus is on Random Mobility Models and Group Mobility Models. Firstly, we present a survey of the characteristics, drawbacks and research challenges of mobility modeling. At the last we present simulation results that illustrate the importance of choosing a mobility model in the simulation of an ad hoc network protocol. Also, we illustrate how the performance results of an ad hoc network protocol drastically change as a result of changing the mobility model simulated.

  16. Trade-off Assessment of Simplified Routing Models for Short-Term Hydropower Reservoir Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issao Kuwajima, Julio; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvardo Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto

    2014-05-01

    comparable, and a lower performance was assessed for the MGB model (ii). Whereas the SOBEK model is able to propagate sharp discharge gradient downstream, the diffusive wave model is damping these gradients significantly due to the course spatial schematization. In the reservoir routing model, which is also schematized on a course grid, we counteract this drawback by modeling parts of the river reach by advection. This results in an excellent ratio between model accuracy / robustness and computational effort making it the approach of choice from the predictive control perspective.

  17. Comparative study on mode split discrete choice models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xianlong Chen; Xiaoqian Liu; Fazhi Li

    2013-01-01

    Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restrictions diversely, how to properly select the specific type among discrete choice models for realistic application still remains to be a tough problem. In this article, five typical discrete choice models for transport mode split are, respectively, discussed, which includes multinomial logit model, nested logit model (NL), heteroscedastic extreme value model, multinominal probit model and mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL). The theoretical basis and application attributes of these five models are especially analysed with great attention, and they are also applied to a realistic intercity case of mode split forecast, which results indi-cating that NL model does well in accommodating simi-larity and heterogeneity across alternatives, while MMNL model serves as the most effective method for mode choice prediction since it shows the highest reliability with the least significant prediction errors and even outperforms the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems. This study indicates that conclusions derived from a single discrete choice model are not reli-able, and it is better to choose the proper model based on its characteristics.

  18. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

  19. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    2011-01-01

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and p

  20. Modeling Departure Time Choice with Stochastic Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, H.; Bliemer, M.C.J.; Bovy, P.H.L.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic supply and fluctuating travel demand lead to stochasticity in travel times and travel costs experienced by travelers from time to time within a day and at the same time from day to day. Many studies show that travel time un-reliability has significant impacts on traveler’s choice behavior

  1. Quasiperiodicity route to chaos in cardiac conduction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroz-Juárez, M. A.; Vázquez-Medina, R.; Ryzhii, E.; Ryzhii, M.; Aragón, J. L.

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that cardiac arrhythmias are instances of chaos. In particular that the ventricular fibrillation is a form of spatio-temporal chaos that arises from normal rhythm through a quasi-periodicity or Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos. In this work, we modify the heterogeneous oscillator model of cardiac conduction system proposed in Ref. [Ryzhii E, Ryzhii M. A heterogeneous coupled oscillator model for simulation of ECG signals. Comput Meth Prog Bio 2014;117(1):40-49. doi:10.1016/j.cmpb.2014.04.009.], by including an ectopic pacemaker that stimulates the ventricular muscle to model arrhythmias. With this modification, the transition from normal rhythm to ventricular fibrillation is controlled by a single parameter. We show that this transition follows the so-called torus of quasi-periodic route to chaos, as verified by using numerical tools such as power spectrum and largest Lyapunov exponent.

  2. Research on the Influence of Traffic Information on Drivers'Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior%交通信息对驾驶员逐日路径选择行为影响研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘诗序; 关宏志; 严海

    2011-01-01

    在无信息、发布历史信息和发布预测信息3种信息条件下,分别建立了驾驶员的路径理解行程时间期望值的更新模型.通过建立一个含有2条平行路径的简单路网,对3种交通信息条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择进行了仿真,结果表明:交通信息对驾驶员的作用与驾驶员路径选择的随机程度和对信息依赖程度有关;在3种交通信息条件下,路网均不能达到用户均衡平衡状态;交通信息的预测方法不同,预测信息对驾驶员路径选择的影响有差异.%Firstly, it is assumed that drivers select routes in terms of drivers' perceived travel time on routes. Consequently, the route choice model is developed. Then, updating the drivers routes perceived travel time is modeled respectively in three kinds of traffic information conditions, which are absence of information, releasing historical information and releasing forecast information. Finally, by establishing a simple road network with two parallel paths, the drivers day-to-day route choice is simulated in the three kinds of traffic information conditions. The results show that the impacts of traffic information on drivers are related to the degree of random of driver s route choice and reliance on the information. In addition, the road network can not reach user equilibrium in three kinds of information. Moreover, the drivers' route choice behavior is affected distinctly by different predicted traffic information.

  3. Influence of environmental street characteristics on walking route choice of elderly people

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borst, H.C.; Vries, S.I. de; Graham, J.M.A.; Dongen, J.E.F. van; Bakker, I.; Miedema, H.M.E.

    2009-01-01

    Walking is an important source of outdoor physical activity among elderly people. In order to devise measures aimed at encouraging walking among the elderly it is important to understand how the local environment influences the walking behaviour of elderly people. Here, a model describing the influe

  4. Modeling a four-layer location-routing problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Hamidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Distribution is an indispensable component of logistics and supply chain management. Location-Routing Problem (LRP is an NP-hard problem that simultaneously takes into consideration location, allocation, and vehicle routing decisions to design an optimal distribution network. Multi-layer and multi-product LRP is even more complex as it deals with the decisions at multiple layers of a distribution network where multiple products are transported within and between layers of the network. This paper focuses on modeling a complicated four-layer and multi-product LRP which has not been tackled yet. The distribution network consists of plants, central depots, regional depots, and customers. In this study, the structure, assumptions, and limitations of the distribution network are defined and the mathematical optimization programming model that can be used to obtain the optimal solution is developed. Presented by a mixed-integer programming model, the LRP considers the location problem at two layers, the allocation problem at three layers, the vehicle routing problem at three layers, and a transshipment problem. The mathematical model locates central and regional depots, allocates customers to plants, central depots, and regional depots, constructs tours from each plant or open depot to customers, and constructs transshipment paths from plants to depots and from depots to other depots. Considering realistic assumptions and limitations such as producing multiple products, limited production capacity, limited depot and vehicle capacity, and limited traveling distances enables the user to capture the real world situations.

  5. Estimating Value of Congestion and of Reliability from Observation of Route Choice Behavior of Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2014-01-01

    both congestion and reliability terms. Results illustrated that the value of time and the value of congestion were significantly higher in the peak period because of possible higher penalties for drivers being late and consequently possible higher time pressure. Moreover, results showed...... that the marginal rate of substitution between travel time reliability and total travel time did not vary across periods and traffic conditions, with the obvious caveat that the absolute values were significantly higher for the peak period. Last, results showed the immense potential of exploiting the growing...... availability of large amounts of data from cheap and enhanced technology to obtain estimates of the monetary value of different travel time components from the observation of actual behavior, with arguably potential significant impact on the realism of large-scale models....

  6. Modeling Consideration Sets and Brand Choice Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.L.K. Vroomen (Björn); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); J.E.M. van Nierop

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe concept of consideration sets makes brand choice a two-step process. House-holds first construct a consideration set which not necessarily includes all available brands and conditional on this set they make a final choice. In this paper we put forward a parametric econometric model f

  7. Model untuk Persoalan Lokasi-Routing Limbah Berbahaya

    OpenAIRE

    Surbakti, Hermida Yani

    2015-01-01

    Increased development in all fields, particularly in the construction industry, will result in increasing the amount of waste generated, including hazardous and toxic wastes which can degrade the quality of the environment and harm to human health and thus require special management. In the hazardous waste management involves collection, transportation, treatment and disposal of the hazardous waste. The model presented in solving the problem of hazardous waste location-routing ...

  8. Nonlinear relative-proportion-based route adjustment process for day-to-day traffic dynamics: modeling, equilibrium and stability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenlong; Ma, Shoufeng; Tian, Junfang; Li, Geng

    2016-11-01

    Travelers' route adjustment behaviors in a congested road traffic network are acknowledged as a dynamic game process between them. Existing Proportional-Switch Adjustment Process (PSAP) models have been extensively investigated to characterize travelers' route choice behaviors; PSAP has concise structure and intuitive behavior rule. Unfortunately most of which have some limitations, i.e., the flow over adjustment problem for the discrete PSAP model, the absolute cost differences route adjustment problem, etc. This paper proposes a relative-Proportion-based Route Adjustment Process (rePRAP) maintains the advantages of PSAP and overcomes these limitations. The rePRAP describes the situation that travelers on higher cost route switch to those with lower cost at the rate that is unilaterally depended on the relative cost differences between higher cost route and its alternatives. It is verified to be consistent with the principle of the rational behavior adjustment process. The equivalence among user equilibrium, stationary path flow pattern and stationary link flow pattern is established, which can be applied to judge whether a given network traffic flow has reached UE or not by detecting the stationary or non-stationary state of link flow pattern. The stability theorem is proved by the Lyapunov function approach. A simple example is tested to demonstrate the effectiveness of the rePRAP model.

  9. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that m...

  10. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Ching-Hung Lin; Yu-Kai Lin; Tzu-Jiun Song; Jong-Tsun Huang; Yao-Chu Chiu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the pr...

  11. UML modelling of geographic routing protocol "Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing" for its integration into the "Java Network Simulator"

    CERN Document Server

    Erritali, Mohammed; Ouahidi, Bouabid El

    2012-01-01

    In this work we propose an UML modeling of the "Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing" (GPSR) protocol that integrate this geographic routing protocol, into "JavaNetwork Simulator" to simulate and study this protocol in a first time and offer some improvement in these features. Java Network Simulator (JNS) is a project of "translation" of Network Simulator (NS) in Java initiated by "the UCL Department of Computer Science". This simulator is not as complete as ns-2, but it is much more accessible to programmers unfamiliar with Tcl. Java Network Simulator does not support so far, no routing protocol for vehicular ad hoc networks and all the routing decisions are made statically or using RIP and OSPF. By modeling and integrating the routing protocol GPSR to JNS, users will be able to understand the concept of the geographic routing and how the routing information is transmitted and updated between nodes in vehicular ad hoc network. The article first examines the architecture of the Java Network Simulator, then give...

  12. Contact modeling and prediction-based routing in sparse mobile networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Yang; QU Yugui; BAI Ronggang; ZHAO Baohua

    2007-01-01

    Mobile ad-hoc networks(MANETs) provide highly robust and self-configuring network capacity required in many critical applications,such as battlefields,disaster relief,and wild life tracking.In this paper,we focus on efficient message forwarding in sparse MANETs,which suffers from frequent and long-duration partitions.Asynchronous contacts become the basic way of communication in such kind of network instead of data links in traditional ad-hoc networks.Current approaches are primarily based on estimation with pure probability calculation.Stochastic forwarding decisions from statistic results can lead to disastrous routing performance when wrong choices are made.This paper introduces a new routing protocol,based on contact modeling and contact prediction,to address the problem.Our contact model focuses on the periodic contact pattern of nodes with actual inter-contact time involved,in order to get an accurate realization of network cooperation and connectivity status.The corresponding contact prediction algorithm makes use of both statistic and time sequence information of contacts and allows choosing the relay that has the earliest contact to the destination,which results in low average latency.Simulation is used to compare the routing performance of our algorithm with three other categories of forwarding algorithm proposed already.The results demonstrate that our scheme is more efficient in both data delivery and energy consumption than previously proposed schemes.

  13. Sexual selection under parental choice: a revision to the model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolou, Menelaos

    2014-06-01

    Across human cultures, parents exercise considerable influence over their children's mate choices. The model of parental choice provides a good account of these patterns, but its prediction that male parents exercise more control than female ones is not well founded in evolutionary theory. To address this shortcoming, the present article proposes a revision to the model. In particular, parental uncertainty, residual reproductive value, reproductive variance, asymmetry in the control of resources, physical strength, and access to weaponry make control over mating more profitable for male parents than female ones; in turn, this produces an asymmetrical incentive for controlling mate choice. Several implications of this formulation are also explored.

  14. Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Kheifets, Igor

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct specification of parametric conditional distributions in dynamic discrete choice models, not only of some particular conditional characteristics such as moments or symmetry. Knowing the true distribution is important in many circumstances, in particular to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and appropriate predictions of the probability of future events. We propose a transformation of data which under the true conditional distribution leads to continuous uniform iid series. The uniformity and serial independence of the new series is then examined simultaneously. The transformation can be considered as an extension of the integral transform tool for noncontinuous data. We derive asymptotic properties of such tests taking into...

  15. Profile construction in experimental choice designs for mixed logit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandor, Z; Wedel, M

    2002-01-01

    A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard

  16. A RIVER FLOW ROUTING MODEL BASED ON DIGITAL DRAINAGE NETWORK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; REN Li-liang; YU Zhong-bo; XU Jing

    2005-01-01

    On the basis of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, watershed delineation and spatial topological relationship were proposed by the Digital Elevation Drainage Network Model (DEDNM) for the area upstream of the Hanzhong Hydrological Station in the Hanjiang River in China. Then, the Muskingum-Cunge method considering lateral flow into the river was applied to flood routing on the platform of digital basin derived from DEDNM. Because of considering lateral flow into the river, the Muskingum-Cunge method performs better than the Muskingum method in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the relative error of flood discharge peak value. With a routing-after-superposition algorithm, the Muskingum-Cunge method performs better than the Muskingum method in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the relative error of flood discharge peak value. As a result, the digital basin coupled with the Muskingum-Cunge method provides a better platform for water resources management and flood control.

  17. Analysis of Driver's Route Choice Behavior in Traffic Flow%驾驶员路线选择行为分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    况漠

    2003-01-01

    研究驾驶员的路线选择行为有助于提高既有道路网络(特别是城市交通网络)的利用率,从而改善交通状况.本文从宏观角度分析存在实时交通信息条件下驾驶员路线选择行为的时间演化特征,认为路线选择行为具有随机不确定性,在设计交通诱导系统或交通信息系统时,必须考虑扰动因素影响,才能保证系统有效实现均衡的交通流动态分配.%This paper, from the point of macroscopic view, discusses the time evolution pattern of driver's route choice behavior with the influence of dynamic traffic information upon the pattern.The study aims to provide theoretical support for the evaluation of long-term result of traffic information system, the forecasting of driver's route choice behavior and the study of influence on route choice behavior through controlling and changing traffic information.

  18. KREAM: Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for Aviation Route Dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J.; Dokgo, K.; Choi, E. J.; Kim, K. C.; Kim, H. P.; Cho, K. S. F.

    2014-12-01

    Since Korean Air has begun to use the polar route from Seoul/ICN airport to New York/JFK airport on August 2006, there are explosive needs for the estimation and prediction against cosmic radiation exposure for Korean aircrew and passengers in South Korea from public. To keep pace with those needs of public, Korean government made the law on safety standards and managements of cosmic radiation for the flight attendants and the pilots in 2013. And we have begun to develop our own Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model (KREAM) for aviation route dose since last year funded by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). GEANT4 model and NRLMSIS 00 model are used for calculation of the energetic particles' transport in the atmosphere and for obtaining the background atmospheric neutral densities depending on altitude. For prediction the radiation exposure in many routes depending on the various space weather effects, we constructed a database from pre-arranged simulations using all possible combinations of R, S, and G, which are the space weather effect scales provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To get the solar energetic particles' spectrum at the 100 km altitude which we set as a top of the atmospheric layers in the KREAM, we use ACE and GOES satellites' proton flux observations. We compare the results between KREAM and the other cosmic radiation estimation programs such as CARI-6M which is provided by the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA). We also validate KREAM's results by comparison with the measurement from Liulin-6K LET spectrometer onboard Korean commercial flights and Korean Air Force reconnaissance flights.

  19. A NEW GENETIC SIMULATED ANNEALING ALGORITHM FOR FLOOD ROUTING MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KANG Ling; WANG Cheng; JIANG Tie-bing

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a new approach, the Genetic Simulated Annealing (GSA), was proposed for optimizing the parameters in the Muskingum routing model. By integrating the simulated annealing method into the genetic algorithm, the hybrid method could avoid some troubles of traditional methods, such as arduous trial-and-error procedure, premature convergence in genetic algorithm and search blindness in simulated annealing. The principle and implementing procedure of this algorithm were described. Numerical experiments show that the GSA can adjust the optimization population, prevent premature convergence and seek the global optimal result.Applications to the Nanyunhe River and Qingjiang River show that the proposed approach is of higher forecast accuracy and practicability.

  20. A general route diversity model for convergent terrestrial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Kevin S.; Usman, Isa S.; Watson, Robert J.

    2006-06-01

    This research examines route diversity as a fade mitigation technique in the presence of rain for convergent, terrestrial, microwave links. A general model is derived which predicts the joint distribution of rain attenuation on arbitrary pairs of convergent microwave links, directly from the link parameters. It is assumed that pairs of links have joint rain attenuation distributions that are bilognormally distributed. Four of the five distribution parameters can be estimated from International Telecommunication Union recommendation models. A maximum likelihood estimation method was used in a previous paper to estimate the fifth parameter, that is, the covariance or correlation. In this paper an empirical model is reported, linking the correlation of log rain fade with the geometry and radio parameters of the pair of links. From these distributions, the advantage due to route diversity may be calculated for arbitrary fade margins. Furthermore, the predicted diversity statistics vary smoothly and yield plausible extrapolations into low-probability scenarios. Diversity improvement is calculated for a set of example link scenarios.

  1. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... chaining, tour type choice, and number of tours have received less attention. This work aims to contribute to the research dealing with the role of land use patterns on tour type choice. To pursue this objective, a tour type choice is modeled using a hybrid choice model that allows simulating the effect...

  2. A discussion of mode choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen diskuterer matematiske modeller for transportmiddelvalg med særlig fokus på modeller, der bygger på nyttefunktioner. I kapitel 3 refereres til et begrænset eksperiment, der viste at den sædvanlige lineære nyttefunktion ikke er tilstrækkelig til at beskrive selv en meget simpel...... rent fysiologiske be-tragtninger. Artiklen rummer en række anbefalinger vedr. den deterministiske del af nyttefunktionen. Kapitel 5 diskuterer fordelingen af den stokastiske del, og anbefaler brug af probit-modeller for valgsituatio-ner med flere alternativer, der er mere eller mindre indbyrdes...

  3. Fuzzy-Based Trust Prediction Model for Routing in WSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Anita

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The cooperative nature of multihop wireless sensor networks (WSNs makes it vulnerable to varied types of attacks. The sensitive application environments and resource constraints of WSNs mandate the requirement of lightweight security scheme. The earlier security solutions were based on historical behavior of neighbor but the security can be enhanced by predicting the future behavior of the nodes in the network. In this paper, we proposed a fuzzy-based trust prediction model for routing (FTPR in WSNs with minimal overhead in regard to memory and energy consumption. FTPR incorporates a trust prediction model that predicts the future behavior of the neighbor based on the historical behavior, fluctuations in trust value over a period of time, and recommendation inconsistency. In order to reduce the control overhead, FTPR received recommendations from a subset of neighbors who had maximum number of interactions with the requestor. Theoretical analysis and simulation results of FTPR protocol demonstrate higher packet delivery ratio, higher network lifetime, lower end-to-end delay, and lower memory and energy consumption than the traditional and existing trust-based routing schemes.

  4. Small World Model-Based Polylogarithmic Routing Using Mobile Nodes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jie Wu; Shu-Hui Yang

    2008-01-01

    The use of mobile nodes to improve network system performance has drawn considerable attention recently.The movement-assisted model considers mobility as a desirable feature, where routing is based on the store-carry-forward paradigm with random or controlled movement of resource rich mobile nodes. The application of such a model has been used in several emerging networks, including mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), wireless sensor networks (WSNs), and delay tolerant networks (DTNs). It is well known that mobility increases the capacity of MANETs by reducing the number of relays for routing, prolonging the lifespan of WSNs by using mobile nodes in place of bottleneck static sensors, and ensuring network connectivity in DTNs using mobile nodes to connect different parts of a disconnected network. Trajectory planning and the coordination of mobile nodes are two important design issues aiming to optimize or balance several measures,including delay, average number of relays, and moving distance. In this paper, we propose a new controlled mobility model with an expected polylogarithmic number of relays to achieve a good balance among several contradictory goals, including delay, the number of relays, and moving distance. The model is based on the small-world model where each static node has "short" link connections to its nearest neighbors and "long" link connections to other nodes following a certain probability distribution. Short links are regular wireless connections whereas long links are implemented using mobile nodes. Various issues are considered, including trade-offs between delay and average number of relays, selection of the number of mobilenodes, and selection of the number of long links. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated analytically as well as through simulation.

  5. Structural Equation Modeling of Travel Choice Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Golob, Thomas F.

    1988-01-01

    This research has two objectives. The first objective is to explore the use of the modeling tool called "latent structural equations" (structural equations with latent variables) in the general field of travel behavior analysis and the more specific field of dynamic analysis of travel behavior. The second objective is to apply a latent structural equation model in order to determine the causal relationships between income, car ownership, and mobility. Many transportation researchers ...

  6. A Method for Driving Route Predictions Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a driving route prediction method that is based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM. This method can accurately predict a vehicle’s entire route as early in a trip’s lifetime as possible without inputting origins and destinations beforehand. Firstly, we propose the route recommendation system architecture, where route predictions play important role in the system. Secondly, we define a road network model, normalize each of driving routes in the rectangular coordinate system, and build the HMM to make preparation for route predictions using a method of training set extension based on K-means++ and the add-one (Laplace smoothing technique. Thirdly, we present the route prediction algorithm. Finally, the experimental results of the effectiveness of the route predictions that is based on HMM are shown.

  7. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients in V....

  8. Proposition of a mathematical model for selecting possible low-cost airlines routes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmona Benitez, R.B.; Lodewijks, G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the effects that low-cost carriers (LCC’s) produce when entering new routes operated only by full-service carriers (FSC’s) and routes operated by low-cost carriers in competition with full-service carriers. A mathematical model has been developed to determine what routes should b

  9. Dynamic Vehicle Routing for Robotic Networks: Models, Fundamental Limitations and Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-16

    partitions. SIAM Review, January 2010. Submitted Francesco Bullo (UCSB) Dynamic Vehicle Routing 16apr10 @ ARL 31 / 34 Gossip partitioning policy: sample...Control Conference, Hollywood, CA, October 2009 Francesco Bullo (UCSB) Dynamic Vehicle Routing 16apr10 @ ARL 32 / 34 Gossip partitioning policy: analysis...Dynamic Vehicle Routing for Robotic Networks: Models, Fundamental Limitations and Algorithms Francesco Bullo Center for Control, Dynamical Systems

  10. The Influence of Role Models on Women's Career Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quimby, Julie L.; DeSantis, Angela M.

    2006-01-01

    This study of 368 female undergraduates examined self-efficacy and role model influence as predictors of career choice across J. L. Holland's (1997) 6 RIASEC (Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, Conventional) types. Findings showed that levels of self-efficacy and role model influence differed across Holland types. Multiple…

  11. Epistemic Games in Integration: Modeling Resource Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Katrina E.; Wittmann, Michael C.

    2007-11-01

    As part of an ongoing project to understand how mathematics is used in advanced physics to guide one's conceptual understanding of physics, we focus on students' interpretation and use of boundary and initial conditions when solving integrals. We discuss an interaction between two students working on a group quiz problem. After describing the interaction, we briefly discuss the procedural resources that we use to model the students' solutions. We then use the procedural resources introduced earlier to draw resources graphs describing the two epistemic game facets used by the students in our transcript.

  12. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-07-27

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

  13. Using Trust to Establish a Secure Routing Model in Cognitive Radio Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guanghua; Chen, Zhenguo; Tian, Liqin; Zhang, Dongwen

    2015-01-01

    Specific to the selective forwarding attack on routing in cognitive radio network, this paper proposes a trust-based secure routing model. Through monitoring nodes' forwarding behaviors, trusts of nodes are constructed to identify malicious nodes. In consideration of that routing selection-based model must be closely collaborative with spectrum allocation, a route request piggybacking available spectrum opportunities is sent to non-malicious nodes. In the routing decision phase, nodes' trusts are used to construct available path trusts and delay measurement is combined for making routing decisions. At the same time, according to the trust classification, different responses are made specific to their service requests. By adopting stricter punishment on malicious behaviors from non-trusted nodes, the cooperation of nodes in routing can be stimulated. Simulation results and analysis indicate that this model has good performance in network throughput and end-to-end delay under the selective forwarding attack.

  14. A Conditioned Model for Choice of Mode Under Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the influence of time and cost information obtained from different sources on choice of mode of Leeds' long distance travellers. The choice of mode was investigated through modal attributes provided by at least two different information sources which might provide contrary or corroborating information rather than on actual attributes. The experiment included telephone administered questionnaire including RP (Revealed Preference questions and an SP (Stated Preference exercise dealing with the choice of modes conditioned by the information received from various sources. Information on travel time and cost was provided from two different information sources for each mode to facilitate the conditioning of mode choice on corroborating/contradictory information. The research employs a wide range of modelling methodologies and examines a range of traditional and newly developed calibration and estimation procedures including Mixed Logit models with individual specific parameters and the newly developed RRM (Random Regret Minimisation framework. The study confirms that the market share of the modes increases when information sources show decreased travel time and cost values and shows that the maximum shares are achieved when different information sources give the same information to the travellers. The study found that pre-trip time information has more influence on mode choice when derived from websites than when derived from other sources. Pre-trip information on costs was, however, less influential when derived from websites than when derived from other sources.

  15. Analysis of reactive routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks in Markov models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Han-xing; HU Xi; FANG Jian-chao; JIA Wei-jia

    2007-01-01

    Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) have become a hot issue in the area of wireless networks for their non-infrastructure and mobile features. In this paper, a MANET is modeled so that the length of each link in the network is considered as a birthdeath process and the space is reused for n times in the flooding process, which is named as an n-spatial reuse birth-death model (n-SRBDM). We analyze the performance of the network under the dynamic source routing protocol (DSR) which is a famous reactive routing protocol. Some performance parameters of the route discovery are studied such as the probability distribution and the expectation of the flooding distance, the probability that a route is discovered by a query packet with a hop limit, the probability that a request packet finds a τ-time-valid route or a symmetric-valid route, and the average time needed to discover a valid route. For the route maintenance, some parameters are introduced and studied such as the average frequency of route recovery and the average time of a route to be valid. We compare the two models with spatial reuse and without spatial reuse by evaluating these parameters. It is shown that the spatial reuse model is much more effective in routing.

  16. Choice of cell-delivery route for skeletal myoblast transplantation for treating post-infarction chronic heart failure in rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Satsuki; Coppen, Steven R; Lee, Joon; Yamahara, Kenichi; Felkin, Leanne E; Terracciano, Cesare M N; Barton, Paul J R; Yacoub, Magdi H; Suzuki, Ken

    2008-08-27

    Intramyocardial injection of skeletal myoblasts (SMB) has been shown to be a promising strategy for treating post-infarction chronic heart failure. However, insufficient therapeutic benefit and occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias are concerns. We hypothesised that the use of a retrograde intracoronary route for SMB-delivery might favourably alter the behaviour of the grafted SMB, consequently modulating the therapeutic effects and arrhythmogenicity. Three weeks after coronary artery ligation in female wild-type rats, 5x10(6) GFP-expressing SMB or PBS only (control) were injected via either the intramyocardial or retrograde intracoronary routes. Injection of SMB via either route similarly improved cardiac performance and physical activity, associated with reduced cardiomyocyte-hypertrophy and fibrosis. Grafted SMB via either route were only present in low numbers in the myocardium, analysed by real-time PCR for the Y-chromosome specific gene, Sry. Cardiomyogenic differentiation of grafted SMB was extremely rare. Continuous ECG monitoring by telemetry revealed that only intramyocardial injection of SMB produced spontaneous ventricular tachycardia up to 14 days, associated with local myocardial heterogeneity generated by clusters of injected SMB and accumulated inflammatory cells. A small number of ventricular premature contractions with latent ventricular tachycardia were detected in the late-phase of SMB injection regardless of the injection-route. Retrograde intracoronary injection of SMB provided significant therapeutic benefits with attenuated early-phase arrhythmogenicity in treating ischaemic cardiomyopathy, indicating the promising utility of this route for SMB-delivery. Late-phase arrhythmogenicity remains a concern, regardless of the delivery route.

  17. Choice of cell-delivery route for skeletal myoblast transplantation for treating post-infarction chronic heart failure in rat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satsuki Fukushima

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intramyocardial injection of skeletal myoblasts (SMB has been shown to be a promising strategy for treating post-infarction chronic heart failure. However, insufficient therapeutic benefit and occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias are concerns. We hypothesised that the use of a retrograde intracoronary route for SMB-delivery might favourably alter the behaviour of the grafted SMB, consequently modulating the therapeutic effects and arrhythmogenicity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three weeks after coronary artery ligation in female wild-type rats, 5x10(6 GFP-expressing SMB or PBS only (control were injected via either the intramyocardial or retrograde intracoronary routes. Injection of SMB via either route similarly improved cardiac performance and physical activity, associated with reduced cardiomyocyte-hypertrophy and fibrosis. Grafted SMB via either route were only present in low numbers in the myocardium, analysed by real-time PCR for the Y-chromosome specific gene, Sry. Cardiomyogenic differentiation of grafted SMB was extremely rare. Continuous ECG monitoring by telemetry revealed that only intramyocardial injection of SMB produced spontaneous ventricular tachycardia up to 14 days, associated with local myocardial heterogeneity generated by clusters of injected SMB and accumulated inflammatory cells. A small number of ventricular premature contractions with latent ventricular tachycardia were detected in the late-phase of SMB injection regardless of the injection-route. CONCLUSION: Retrograde intracoronary injection of SMB provided significant therapeutic benefits with attenuated early-phase arrhythmogenicity in treating ischaemic cardiomyopathy, indicating the promising utility of this route for SMB-delivery. Late-phase arrhythmogenicity remains a concern, regardless of the delivery route.

  18. Time-adaptive versus history-adaptive strategies for multicriterion routing in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pretolani, Daniele; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Andersen, Kim Allan;

    We compare two different models for multicriterion routing in stochastic time-dependent networks: the  classic "time-adaptive'' route choice and the more flexible "history-adaptive'' route choice. We point out some interesting properties of the sets of efficient solutions ("strategies'') found...... under the two models. We also suggest possible directions for improving computational techniques....

  19. Costly innovators versus cheap imitators: a discrete choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Zeppini, P.

    2010-01-01

    Two alternative ways to an innovative product or process are R&D investment or imitation of others’ innovation. In this article we propose a discrete choice model with costly innovators and free imitators and study the endogenous dynamics of price and demand in a market with many firms producing a h

  20. Differential Role Models and the College Woman's Choice of Major.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Suzanne Kasper

    A two-part study investigated female college students' preferences for stereotyped or nonstereotyped role models and the relationship of such preferences to the choice of traditional versus nontraditional careers. A total of 211 women students from a mid-Atlantic state university (all the enrolled women) as well as a stratified-by-college…

  1. Medicare Care Choices Model Enables Concurrent Palliative and Curative Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    On July 20, 2015, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced hospices that have been selected to participate in the Medicare Care Choices Model. Fewer than half of the Medicare beneficiaries use hospice care for which they are eligible. Current Medicare regulations preclude concurrent palliative and curative care. Under the Medicare Choices Model, dually eligible Medicare beneficiaries may elect to receive supportive care services typically provided by hospice while continuing to receive curative services. This report describes how CMS has expanded the model from an originally anticipated 30 Medicare-certified hospices to over 140 Medicare-certified hospices and extended the duration of the model from 3 to 5 years. Medicare-certified hospice programs that will participate in the model are listed.

  2. Rational choice theory and Becker's model of random behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Miloš

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to rational choice theory, rational consumers tend to maximize utility under a given budget constraints. This will be achieved if they choose a combination of goods that can satisfy their needs and provide the maximum level of utility. Gary Becker, on the other hand, imagines irrational consumers who choose bundle on the budget line. As irrational consumers have an equal probability of choosing any bundle on the budget line, on average, we expect that they will pick the bundle lying at the midpoint of the line. The results of research in which artificial Becker's agents choose among more than two commodities, rational choice theory is small and more than two budget/price situations show that the percentage of agents whose behavior violate. Adding some factors to Becker's model of random behavior, experimenters can minimize these minor violations. Therefore, rational choice theory is unfalsifiable. The results of our research have confirmed this theory. In addition, in the paper we discussed about explanatory value of rational choice theory in specific circumstances (positive substitution effect and we concluded that the explanatory value of rational choice theory was significantly reduced in specific cases.

  3. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  4. Route choice behavior under guidance of variable message signs%可变信息标志诱导下的路径选择行为

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尚华艳; 黄海军; 高自友

    2009-01-01

    随着智能交通技术的发展,可变信息标志(VMS)被广泛应用于动态交通管理中.元胞传输模型(CTM)可以很好的模拟交通流激波、排队形成与消散等交通流动力学特性.应用CTM研究了无信息诱导路径选择、基于VMS的近视转换和有界理性路径选择等三种规则,数值模拟结果表明,后两种规则可以减少系统总出行时间,信息服从率越高,系统的改善程度越大.当有界理性规则的"界"参数设置在一定区间内时,该规则优于近视转换规则,否则不如近视转换规则.%The variable message signs (VMS) have been widely used in guiding and managing the dynamic traffic with development of intelligent transportation technologies. It is known that the cell transmission model (CTM) can well reproduce such traffic dynamics as shock waves and jams. The CTM is employed in this paper to study the route choice behavior under three different rules, namely the rule without information guidance, the VMS-based myopic switching rule and the VMS-based boundedly rational switching rule.Simulation results show that the latter two rules can enhance the system performance through reducing the total travel time. The enhancement increases with the compliance rate to VMS. The boundedly rational switching rule is better than the myopic switching rule when its bound associated parameter is within a certain range, not so otherwise.

  5. Binary choices in small and large groups: A unified model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischi, Gian-Italo; Merlone, Ugo

    2010-02-01

    Two different ways to model the diffusion of alternative choices within a population of individuals in the presence of social externalities are known in the literature. While Galam’s model of rumors spreading considers a majority rule for interactions in several groups, Schelling considers individuals interacting in one large group, with payoff functions that describe how collective choices influence individual preferences. We incorporate these two approaches into a unified general discrete-time dynamic model for studying individual interactions in variously sized groups. We first illustrate how the two original models can be obtained as particular cases of the more general model we propose, then we show how several other situations can be analyzed. The model we propose goes beyond a theoretical exercise as it allows modeling situations which are relevant in economic and social systems. We consider also other aspects such as the propensity to switch choices and the behavioral momentum, and show how they may affect the dynamics of the whole population.

  6. Comparison of Random Waypoint & Random Walk Mobility Model under DSR, AODV & DSDV MANET Routing Protocols

    CERN Document Server

    Aslam, Muhammad Zaheer

    2011-01-01

    Mobile Adhoc Network is a kind of wireless ad hoc network where nodes are connected wirelessly and the network is self configuring. MANET may work in a standalone manner or may be a part of another network. In this paper we have compared Random Walk Mobility Model and Random Waypoint Mobility Model over two reactive routing protocols Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and Adhoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV) protocol and one Proactive routing protocol Distance Sequenced Distance Vector Routing (DSDV) Our analysis showed that DSR, AODV & DSDV under Random Walk and Random Way Point Mobility models have similar results for similar inputs however as the pause time increases so does the difference in performance rises. They show that their motion, direction, angle of direction, speed is same under both mobility models. We have made their analysis on packet delivery ratio, throughput and routing overhead. We have tested them with different criteria like different number of nodes, speed and different maximum...

  7. Consumer Choice Prediction: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Gan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers’ choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers’ use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.

  8. The cluster beam route to model catalysts and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Peter R; Brown, Christopher M; Bishop, Peter T; Yin, Jinlong; Cooke, Kevin; Terry, William D; Liu, Jian; Yin, Feng; Palmer, Richard E

    2016-07-01

    The generation of beams of atomic clusters in the gas phase and their subsequent deposition (in vacuum) onto suitable catalyst supports, possibly after an intermediate mass filtering step, represents a new and attractive approach for the preparation of model catalyst particles. Compared with the colloidal route to the production of pre-formed catalytic nanoparticles, the nanocluster beam approach offers several advantages: the clusters produced in the beam have no ligands, their size can be selected to arbitrarily high precision by the mass filter, and metal particles containing challenging combinations of metals can be readily produced. However, until now the cluster approach has been held back by the extremely low rates of metal particle production, of the order of 1 microgram per hour. This is more than sufficient for surface science studies but several orders of magnitude below what is desirable even for research-level reaction studies under realistic conditions. In this paper we describe solutions to this scaling problem, specifically, the development of two new generations of cluster beam sources, which suggest that cluster beam yields of grams per hour may ultimately be feasible. Moreover, we illustrate the effectiveness of model catalysts prepared by cluster beam deposition onto agitated powders in the selective hydrogenation of 1-pentyne (a gas phase reaction) and 3-hexyn-1-ol (a liquid phase reaction). Our results for elemental Pd and binary PdSn and PdTi cluster catalysts demonstrate favourable combinations of yield and selectivity compared with reference materials synthesised by conventional methods.

  9. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  10. Inverse hydrograph routing optimization model based on the kinematic wave approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saghafian, B.; Jannaty, M. H.; Ezami, N.

    2015-08-01

    This article presents and validates the inverse flood hydrograph routing optimization model under kinematic wave (KW) approximation in order to produce the upstream (inflow) hydrograph, given the downstream (outflow) hydrograph of a river reach. The cost function involves minimization of the error between the observed outflow hydrograph and the corresponding directly routed outflow hydrograph. Decision variables are the inflow hydrograph ordinates. The KW and genetic algorithm (GA) are coupled, representing the selected methods of direct routing and optimization, respectively. A local search technique is also enforced to achieve better agreement of the routed outflow hydrograph with the observed hydrograph. Computer programs handling the direct flood routing, cost function and local search are linked with the optimization model. The results show that the case study inflow hydrographs obtained by the GA were reconstructed with accuracy. It was also concluded that the coupled KW-GA model framework can perform inverse hydrograph routing with numerical stability.

  11. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  12. NOC: QOS Metrics Modelling And Analysis Based On Dynamic Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkader SAADAOUI

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing heterogeneous software and hardware blocks constitute complex ICs known as System on Chip (SoC. These blocks are conceived as intellectual property (IP cores. Designers are developing SoCs by using IP cores reuse, which include interconnection architecture and interface to peripheral devices.Because of the SoC growing complexity, some researchers tend to concentrate more on the communication rather than the computation aspect. This area of research has leading to the Network on Chip (NoC Concepts.The research domain of NoC has many applications needing high communication performances. Therefore NoC offers attractive solutions to these applications.One of the goals of NoC technology is to maintain a required Quality of Service (QoS, defined in terms of acceptable parameters values.This paper proposes a presentation of QoS metrics model based on QoS parameters such as Endto-End Delays (EED and throughputs (Thp, for different applications. This study is based on dynamic routing simulation of a 4x4 mesh NoC behaviour under three communications processes namely TCP, VBR and CBR.

  13. Flying Ad-Hoc Networks: Routing Protocols, Mobility Models, Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Muneer Bani Yassein; “Nour Alhuda” Damer

    2016-01-01

    Flying Ad-Hoc Networks (FANETs) is a group of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) which completed their work without human intervention. There are some problems in this kind of networks: the first one is the communication between (UAVs). Various routing protocols introduced classified into three categories, static, proactive, reactive routing protocols in order to solve this problem. The second problem is the network design, which depends on the network mobility, in which is the process of cooperati...

  14. On Performance Modeling of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols

    OpenAIRE

    Khayam SyedAli; Farooq Muddassar; Saleem Muhammad

    2010-01-01

    Simulation studies have been the predominant method of evaluating ad hoc routing algorithms. Despite their wide use and merits, simulations are generally time consuming. Furthermore, several prominent ad hoc simulations report inconsistent and unrepeatable results. We, therefore, argue that simulation-based evaluation of ad hoc routing protocols should be complemented with mathematical verification and comparison. In this paper, we propose a performance evaluation framework that can be used ...

  15. Representing hybrid compensatory non-compensatory choice set formation in semi-compensatory models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial c...

  16. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  17. Valiant load-balanced robust routing under hose model for WDM mesh networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoning; Li, Lemin; Wang, Sheng

    2006-09-01

    In this paper, we propose Valiant Load-Balanced robust routing scheme for WDM mesh networks under the model of polyhedral uncertainty (i.e., hose model), and the proposed routing scheme is implemented with traffic grooming approach. Our Objective is to maximize the hose model throughput. A mathematic formulation of Valiant Load-Balanced robust routing is presented and three fast heuristic algorithms are also proposed. When implementing Valiant Load-Balanced robust routing scheme to WDM mesh networks, a novel traffic-grooming algorithm called MHF (minimizing hop first) is proposed. We compare the three heuristic algorithms with the VPN tree under the hose model. Finally we demonstrate in the simulation results that MHF with Valiant Load-Balanced robust routing scheme outperforms the traditional traffic-grooming algorithm in terms of the throughput for the uniform/non-uniform traffic matrix under the hose model.

  18. Stochastic Technology Choice Model for Consequential Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kätelhön, Arne; Bardow, André; Suh, Sangwon

    2016-12-06

    Discussions on Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) have relied largely on partial or general equilibrium models. Such models are useful for integrating market effects into CLCA, but also have well-recognized limitations such as the poor granularity of the sectoral definition and the assumption of perfect oversight by all economic agents. Building on the Rectangular-Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model, this study proposes a new modeling approach for CLCA, the Technology Choice Model (TCM). In this approach, the RCOT model is adapted for its use in CLCA and extended to incorporate parameter uncertainties and suboptimal decisions due to market imperfections and information asymmetry in a stochastic setting. In a case study on rice production, we demonstrate that the proposed approach allows modeling of complex production technology mixes and their expected environmental outcomes under uncertainty, at a high level of detail. Incorporating the effect of production constraints, uncertainty, and suboptimal decisions by economic agents significantly affects technology mixes and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the system under study. The case study also shows the model's ability to determine both the average and marginal environmental impacts of a product in response to changes in the quantity of final demand.

  19. Modal choice model for fare-free transit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, A.; Goss, W.P.

    1977-03-01

    Using travel data collected at the University of Massachusetts during a research and demonstration project sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, a disaggregate behavioral-mode choice model has been developed for predicting ridership on fare-free transit systems. The calibrated model suggests that access time to the fare-free transit stop, annual automobile parking fee, auto mode bias constant reflecting the comfort and convenience associated with auto travel, and number of autos available for commuting are the most significant attributes in explaining the mode choice between auto and fare-free transit. For this specific demonstration project, some level-of-service variables, such as the difference between in-vehicle travel time using auto and fare-free transit, auto operating cost, wait time at the fare-free transit stop, and some of the socio-economic attributes of the commuter, such as sex and status, were not found to be as important in affecting the mode choice. 14 references.

  20. An optimization model of UAV route planning for road segment surveillance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘晓锋; 关志伟; 宋裕庆; 陈大山

    2014-01-01

    Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was introduced to take road segment traffic surveillance. Considering the limited UAV maximum flight distance, UAV route planning problem was studied. First, a multi-objective optimization model of planning UAV route for road segment surveillance was proposed, which aimed to minimize UAV cruise distance and minimize the number of UAVs used. Then, an evolutionary algorithm based on Pareto optimality technique was proposed to solve multi-objective UAV route planning problem. At last, a UAV flight experiment was conducted to test UAV route planning effect, and a case with three scenarios was studied to analyze the impact of different road segment lengths on UAV route planning. The case results show that the optimized cruise distance and the number of UAVs used decrease by an average of 38.43% and 33.33%, respectively. Additionally, shortening or extending the length of road segments has different impacts on UAV route planning.

  1. Proposition of a mathematical model for selecting possible low-cost airlines routes

    OpenAIRE

    Carmona Benitez, R.B.; Lodewijks, G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the effects that low-cost carriers (LCC’s) produce when entering new routes operated only by full-service carriers (FSC’s) and routes operated by low-cost carriers in competition with full-service carriers. A mathematical model has been developed to determine what routes should be operated by a low-cost carrier with better possibilities to subsist, as a first step towards reaching the most convenient route; additional factors must be considered after running the proposed m...

  2. Acoustic model optimisation for a call routing system

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kleynhans, N

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available . Through Dual Tone Multi-Frequency (DTMF) keypads and Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), IVR sys- tems can capture digit information (such as account numbers) and more sophisticated information via a person?s speech (e.g. person?s name and surname... the versatility of an IVR system. A typical IVR application that makes use of speech pro- cessing capabilities is a call routing service, i.e. a system that routes incoming calls automatically to appropriate services or individuals. One such system...

  3. Exploring the Influence of Attitudes to Walking and Cycling on Commute Mode Choice Using a Hybrid Choice Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transport-related problems, such as automobile dependence, traffic congestion, and greenhouse emissions, lead to a great burden on the environment. In developing countries like China, in order to improve the air quality, promoting sustainable travel modes to reduce the automobile usage is gradually recognized as an emerging national concern. Though there are many studies related to the physically active modes (e.g., walking and cycling, the research on the influence of attitudes to active modes on travel behavior is limited, especially in China. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of attitudes to walking and cycling on commute mode choice. Using the survey data collected in China cities, an integrated discrete choice model and the structural equation model are proposed. By applying the hybrid choice model, not only the role of the latent attitude played in travel mode choice, but also the indirect effects of social factors on travel mode choice are obtained. The comparison indicates that the hybrid choice model outperforms the traditional model. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for urban planners on the influential factors of green travel modes.

  4. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  5. Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast.A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes.This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores (Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic,and threat score) are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.

  6. Routing Trains through railway stations: model formulation and algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.J. Zwaneveld (Peter); L.G. Kroon (Leo); H.E. Romeijn (Edwin); M. Salomon (Marc); S. Dauzere-Peres; S. van Hoesel (Stan); H.W. Ambergen

    1996-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we consider the problem of routing trains through railway stations. This problem occurs as a subproblem in a project which the authors are carrying out in cooperation with the Dutch railways. The project involves the analysis of future infrastructural capacity requirements

  7. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  8. Towards Analytical Modeling for Persuasive Design Choices in Mobile Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Mukhtar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Persuasive technology has emerged as a new field of research in the past decade with its applications in various domains including web-designing, human-computer interaction, healthcare systems, and social networks. Although persuasive technology has its roots in psychology and cognitive sciences, researchers from the computing disciplines are also increasingly interested in it. Unfortunately, the existing theories, models, and frameworks for persuasive system design fall short due to absence of systematic design processes mostly used in the computing domains as well as lack of support for appropriate post-analysis. This work provides some insight into such limitations and identifies the importance of analytical modeling for persuasion in mobile applications design. The authors illustrate, using a case study, that appropriate mathematical models can be applied together with user modeling to develop a persuasive system that will allow the designer to consider several design choices simultaneously.

  9. A weighted min-max model for balanced freight train routing problem with fuzzy information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lixing; Gao, Ziyou; Li, Xiang; Li, Keping

    2011-12-01

    A multi-objective freight train routing problem with fuzzy information is investigated in this article. To handle the fuzziness in the railway transportation system, the measure ℳλ (i.e. the convex combination of a possibility measure and a necessity measure) is first introduced. Then, a min-max chance-constrained programming model is constructed to obtain optimal train routing plans. In order to solve the model, a potential route algorithm, fuzzy simulation and tabu search algorithm are integrated as a hybrid algorithm. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed to show the applications of the model and the algorithm.

  10. An Analytical Model Formulation To Enhance The Green Logistics (GL Operations: From The Perspective Of Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reshani P. Liyanage

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the growing need of integrating environmentally sound choices into supply-chain management. The concept of green economic practices driven by the environmental sustainability challenges posed the concept of green logistics, to evolve in the last few decades.To establish the field further, the purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it offers anextensive systematic review of literature on GL with a critical review of the studies that have been considered in the paper.Second, it offers a conceptual analytical model where the canonical capacitated vehicle routing problem is extended to add the measures of Carbon Dioxide (CO2 emissions. The proposed, multi objective optimization model tackles the conflicting objectives of CO2 emission reduction and cost minimization. The developed generic model integrates the traffic information in providing the user with opportunity to have more realistic solution. The model also enables strategic decision making to improve the GL operations while allowing greatercompetitive advantage

  11. Alternative Fabrication Routes toward Oxide-Dispersion-Strengthened Steels and Model Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergner, Frank; Hilger, Isabell; Virta, Jouko; Lagerbom, Juha; Gerbeth, Gunter; Connolly, Sarah; Hong, Zuliang; Grant, Patrick S.; Weissgärber, Thomas

    2016-11-01

    The standard powder metallurgy (PM) route for the fabrication of oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) steels involves gas atomization to produce a prealloyed powder, mechanical alloying (MA) with fine oxide powders, consolidation, and finally thermal/thermomechanical treatment (TMT). It is well established that ODS steels with superior property combinations, for example, creep and tensile strength, can be produced by this PM/MA route. However, the fabrication process is complex and expensive, and the fitness for scaling up to the industrial scale is limited. At the laboratory scale, production of small amounts of well-controlled model systems continues to be desirable for specific purposes, such as modeling-oriented experiments. Thus, from the laboratory to industrial application, there is growing interest in complementary or alternative fabrication routes for ODS steels and related model systems, which offer a different balance of cost, convenience, properties, and scalability. This article reviews the state of the art in ODS alloy fabrication and identifies promising new routes toward ODS steels. The PM/AM route for the fabrication of ODS steels is also described, as it is the current default process. Hybrid routes that comprise aspects of both the PM route and more radical liquid metal (LM) routes are suggested to be promising approaches for larger volumes and higher throughput of fabricated material. Although similar uniformity and refinement of the critical nanometer-sized oxide particles has not yet been demonstrated, ongoing innovations in the LM route are described, along with recent encouraging preliminary results for both extrinsic nano-oxide additions and intrinsic nano-oxide formation in variants of the LM route. Finally, physicochemical methods such as ion beam synthesis are shown to offer interesting perspectives for the fabrication of model systems. As well as literature sources, examples of progress in the authors' groups are also highlighted.

  12. A family of models for Schelling binary choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2016-02-01

    We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.

  13. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  14. Evaluation and Improvement of Bicycle Travel Environment Based on the Cycling Route Choice Behavior%基于路径选择行为的自行车出行环境评价和改善

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘晖婧; 朱玮; 王德

    2014-01-01

    提供良好的自行车出行环境是促进自行车出行的一个重要方面。本文通过研究骑行者的路径选择行为,得到人们对环境要素的偏好规律,以此为基础探讨评价和改善自行车出行环境的方法。运用叙述性偏好法(简称SP)对骑行者进行虚拟路径选择调查,应用离散选择模型量化各要素对路径评价的影响程度。结果表明,骑行者最关注的环境要素为自行车道类型、机动车车流量、机非隔离设施、机动车路边停车和街道景观。不同出行目的的人群对出行环境偏好差异显著。基于模型结果,在上海市杨浦区某地区进行规划应用,评价路段出行环境,并以出行环境效用提升最大化目标,提出出行环境改善建议。%Good travel environment for cycling is an important aspect for promoting bicycle use. By studying cyclers’ route choice behavior, this research derives people’s preferences on the environmental factors, which serves as a base for evaluating and improving bicycle travel environment. Stated preference (SP) method is used for the survey of virtual route choice behavior and a discrete choice is formulated to quantify the influence of the relevant factors on the route evaluation. The results indicate that among the relevant factors, lane type, traffic volume, separation facility, on-street parking and streetscape are the most important factors for the cyclists. Estimating the models on different cycler groups by travel purposes reveals significant preference differences. Based on the results, a study area in Yangpu District, Shanghai is chosen for application, where the status quo of the routes’ travel environments evaluated and suggestions of promoting the environment are given in the target of maximizing the travel environment utility.

  15. Electric Vehicle Routing Problems : models and solution approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Montoya, Jose-Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Electric vehicles (evs) are one of the most promising technologies to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason, the use of evs in service operations has dramatically increased in recent years. Despite their environmental benefits, evs still face technical constraints such as short autonomy and long charging times. Taking into account these constraints when planning ev operations leads to a new breed of vehicle routing problems (vrps), known as electricVrps (evrps). In addition, to...

  16. Using Virtual Street Audits to Understand the Walkability of Older Adults’ Route Choices by Gender and Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Brookfield

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Walking for physical activity can bring important health benefits to older adults. In this population, walking has been related to various urban design features and street characteristics. To gain new insights into the microscale environmental details that might influence seniors’ walking, details which might be more amenable to change than neighbourhood level factors, we employed a reliable streetscape audit tool, in combination with Google Street View™, to evaluate the ‘walkability’ of where older adults choose to walk. Analysis of the routes selected by a purposive sample of independently mobile adults aged 65 years and over living in Edinburgh, UK, revealed a preference to walk in more walkable environments, alongside a willingness to walk in less supportive settings. At times, factors commonly considered important for walking, including wayfinding and legibility, user conflict, kerb paving quality, and lighting appeared to have little impact on older adults’ decisions about where to walk. The implications for policy, practice, and the emerging technique of virtual auditing are considered.

  17. A model of interacting multiple choices of continuous opinions

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, C -I

    2016-01-01

    We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...

  18. A Hierarchical Multiobjective Routing Model for MPLS Networks with Two Service Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craveirinha, José; Girão-Silva, Rita; Clímaco, João; Martins, Lúcia

    This work presents a model for multiobjective routing in MPLS networks formulated within a hierarchical network-wide optimization framework, with two classes of services, namely QoS and Best Effort (BE) services. The routing model uses alternative routing and hierarchical optimization with two optimization levels, including fairness objectives. Another feature of the model is the use of an approximate stochastic representation of the traffic flows in the network, based on the concept of effective bandwidth. The theoretical foundations of a heuristic strategy for finding “good” compromise solutions to the very complex bi-level routing optimization problem, based on a conjecture concerning the definition of marginal implied costs for QoS flows and BE flows, will be described. The main features of a first version of this heuristic based on a bi-objective shortest path model and some preliminary results for a benchmark network will also be revealed.

  19. Modeling Army Applicants’ Job Choices: The Enlisted Personnel Allocation System (EPAS) Simulation Job Choice Model (JCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-01

    http://roso.epfl.ch/biogeme. Greene, W.H. (1990). Econometric analysis. New York: Macmillan Publishing. Hogan, P.F., Esponisa, J., Mackin, P.C...P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics. New York: Academic Press. Simon, H.A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal...Diff Ratio Family (E) (A) (A-E) (E/A) Catl -3A CL 2434 0.1070 0.1048 -0.0021 1.0204 CO 2148 0.3512 0.3605 0.0093 0.9741 EL 2256 0.1207 0.1213 0.0006

  20. Goal-programming model of the stochastic vehicle-routing problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zare-Mehrjerdi, Y.

    1986-01-01

    This research proposes a Goal Programming (GP) model of the Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem (SVRP). The SVRP examined considers the multiple-vehicle, single-depot-node routing problem in which customer demand and travel and unload times are random variables having known distribution functions. The problem formulation of the SVRP is divided into two major stages which are referred to as Route Construction Stage (RCS) and Route Improvement Stage (RIS). The RCS of the SVRP is required in order to partition a set of stations into feasible sets of routes, one for each vehicle, using an appropriate heuristic approach. The RIS of the problem is required in order to sequence the stations on each vehicle route to meet the customer's and decision maker's requirements by applying a GP method. Two problems discuss the GP formulation of the RIS, which is used for improving the arrangement of stations on each vehicle route based on the customer's and decision maker's criteria. The formulation of the RCS of the problem is divided into two sections according to the type of criteria that is to be minimized. A substantial improvement in the results of the SVRP can be obtained by integrating the customer's and decision maker's requirements with the SVRP in order to determine the final arrangement of stations for each vehicle route.

  1. The probit choice model under sequential search with an application to online retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bronnenberg, Bart; Kim, Jun B.; Albuquerque, P.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a probit choice model under optimal sequential search and apply it to the study of aggregate demand of consumer durable goods. In our joint model of search and choice, we derive a semi-closed form expression for the probability of choice that obeys the full set of restrictions imposed by

  2. Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim Sheikh, A K; Radin Umar, R S; Habshah, M; Kassim, H; Stevenson, Mark; Ahmed, Hariza

    2006-06-01

    In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.

  3. Human nonindependent mate choice: is model female attractiveness everything?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakirtzis, Antonios; Roberts, S Craig

    2012-05-06

    Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners ('model females') into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive) model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits) by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  4. Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Vakirtzis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  5. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

    2014-03-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

  6. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. S.; Benson, C.; Kersten, D.; Schrater, P.

    2010-01-01

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) “probability matching”—a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans—occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning. PMID:20805507

  7. Baseline requirements of the proposed action for the Transportation Management Division routing models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S.

    1995-02-01

    The potential impacts associated with the transportation of hazardous materials are important to shippers, carriers, and the general public. This is particularly true for shipments of radioactive material. The shippers are primarily concerned with safety, security, efficiency, and equipment requirements. The carriers are concerned with the potential impact that radioactive shipments may have on their operations--particularly if such materials are involved in an accident. The general public has also expressed concerns regarding the safety of transporting radioactive and other hazardous materials through their communities. Because transportation routes are a central concern in hazardous material transport, the prediction of likely routes is the first step toward resolution of these issues. In response to these routing needs, several models have been developed over the past fifteen years at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The HIGHWAY routing model is used to predict routes for truck transportation, the INTERLINE routing model is used to predict both rail and barge routes, and the AIRPORT locator model is used to determine airports with specified criteria near a specific location. As part of the ongoing improvement of the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Environmental Management Transportation Management Division`s (EM-261) computer systems and development efforts, a Baseline Requirements Assessment Session on the HIGHWAY, INTERLINE, and AIRPORT models was held at ORNL on April 27, 1994. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss the existing capabilities of the models and data bases and to review enhancements of the models and data bases to expand their usefulness. The results of the Baseline Requirements Assessment Section will be discussed in this report. The discussions pertaining to the different models are contained in separate sections.

  8. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  9. Applying Hierarchy Model to Routing and Scheduling Operations in Postal Logistics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Postal departments are actively taking part in e-commerce, of which logistics is a key joint. Computerized routing and scheduling of postal transportation operations offers significant potential for cost decreases and productivity gains. Routing and scheduling hierarchy model is initially built and demonstrated in detail on the basis of statements of specific requirements of postal logistics in this paper, and the realized software is proved to be practical and reliable.

  10. Routing in Vehicular Networks: Feasibility, Modeling, and Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Broustis

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular networks are sets of surface transportation systems that have the ability to communicate with each other. There are several possible network architectures to organize their in-vehicle computing systems. Potential schemes may include vehicle-to-vehicle ad hoc networks, wired backbone with wireless last hops, or hybrid architectures using vehicle-to-vehicle communications to augment roadside communication infrastructures. Some special properties of these networks, such as high mobility, network partitioning, and constrained topology, differentiate them from other types of wireless networks. We provide an in-depth discussion on the important studies related to architectural design and routing for such networks. Moreover, we discuss the major security concerns appearing in vehicular networks.

  11. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  12. A Framework and Mathematical Modeling for the Vehicular Delay Tolerant Network Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostofa Kamal Nasir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs are getting growing interest as they are expected to play crucial role in making safer, smarter, and more efficient transportation networks. Due to unique characteristics such as sparse topology and intermittent connectivity, Delay Tolerant Network (DTN routing in VANET becomes an inherent choice and is challenging. However, most of the existing DTN protocols do not accurately discover potential neighbors and, hence, appropriate intermediate nodes for packet transmission. Moreover, these protocols cause unnecessary overhead due to excessive beacon messages. To cope with these challenges, this paper presents a novel framework and an Adaptive Geographical DTN Routing (AGDR for vehicular DTNs. AGDR exploits node position, current direction, speed, and the predicted direction to carefully select an appropriate intermediate node. Direction indicator light is employed to accurately predict the vehicle future direction so that the forwarding node can relay packets to the desired destination. Simulation experiments confirm the performance supremacy of AGDR compared to contemporary schemes in terms of packet delivery ratio, overhead, and end-to-end delay. Simulation results demonstrate that AGDR improves the packet delivery ratio (5–7%, reduces the overhead (1–5%, and decreases the delay (up to 0.02 ms. Therefore, AGDR improves route stability by reducing the frequency of route failures.

  13. Constraint-Based Routing Models for the Transport of Radioactive Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steven K [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has a historic programmatic interest in the safe and secure routing, tracking, and transportation risk analysis of radiological materials in the United States. In order to address these program goals, DOE has funded the development of several tools and related systems designed to provide insight to planners and other professionals handling radioactive materials shipments. These systems include the WebTRAGIS (Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System) platform. WebTRAGIS is a browser-based routing application developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) focused primarily on the safe transport of spent nuclear fuel from US nuclear reactors via railway, highway, or waterway. It is also used for the transport planning of low-level radiological waste to depositories such as the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility. One particular feature of WebTRAGIS is its coupling with high-resolution population data from ORNL s LandScan project. This allows users to obtain highly accurate population count and density information for use in route planning and risk analysis. To perform the routing and risk analysis WebTRAGIS incorporates a basic routing model methodology, with the additional application of various constraints designed to mimic US Department of Transportation (DOT), DOE, and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations. Aside from the routing models available in WebTRAGIS, the system relies on detailed or specialized modal networks for the route solutions. These include a highly detailed network model of the US railroad system, the inland and coastal waterways, and a specialized highway network that focuses on the US interstate system and the designated hazardous materials and Highway Route Controlled Quantity (HRCQ) -designated roadways. The route constraints in WebTRAGIS rely upon a series of attributes assigned to the various components of the different modal networks. Routes are determined via a

  14. Bayesian methods for model choice and propagation of model uncertainty in groundwater transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, B. S.; Draper, D.

    2008-12-01

    The issue of model uncertainty and model choice is central in any groundwater modeling effort [Neuman and Wierenga, 2003]; among the several approaches to the problem we favour using Bayesian statistics because it is a method that integrates in a natural way uncertainties (arising from any source) and experimental data. In this work, we experiment with several Bayesian approaches to model choice, focusing primarily on demonstrating the usefulness of the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) simulation method [Green, 1995]; this is an extension of the now- common MCMC methods. Standard MCMC techniques approximate posterior distributions for quantities of interest, often by creating a random walk in parameter space; RJMCMC allows the random walk to take place between parameter spaces with different dimensionalities. This fact allows us to explore state spaces that are associated with different deterministic models for experimental data. Our work is exploratory in nature; we restrict our study to comparing two simple transport models applied to a data set gathered to estimate the breakthrough curve for a tracer compound in groundwater. One model has a mean surface based on a simple advection dispersion differential equation; the second model's mean surface is also governed by a differential equation but in two dimensions. We focus on artificial data sets (in which truth is known) to see if model identification is done correctly, but we also address the issues of over and under-paramerization, and we compare RJMCMC's performance with other traditional methods for model selection and propagation of model uncertainty, including Bayesian model averaging, BIC and DIC.References Neuman and Wierenga (2003). A Comprehensive Strategy of Hydrogeologic Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Nuclear Facilities and Sites. NUREG/CR-6805, Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  15. Review and Developments of the Study on Driver Route Choice Response to Graphical Route Information%图状路况信息对驾驶员择路行为影响的研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    干宏程

    2012-01-01

    随着以地图形式显示道路网交通状态的图形式可变情报板在城市交通管理中的日益普及,探索图状路况信息对驾驶员择路行为的影响已成为驾驶员对实时交通信息的响应这一研究领域的一个前沿方向.本文从行为数据获取和行为建模两个方面回顾了国内外图状路况信息影响下驾驶员择路行为的研究成果,指出了以往研究的不足和图状路况信息影响下择路行为研究的发展趋势.介绍了笔者在该研究方向的一些最新进展.%With the increasing popularity of graphical route information panels in transportation management,driver response to graphical route information has become a frontier topic in the field of driver behavior under real time traffic information. A literature review of studies on driver response to graphical route information in aspects of behavioral data collection and behavior modeling was made, the shortcomings of previous studies and the emerging trend were pointed out,and some new developments in this frontier topic were presented. Useful implications and guidance for future research were provided.

  16. Nonword reading: comparing dual-route cascaded and connectionist dual-process models with human data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritchard, Stephen C; Coltheart, Max; Palethorpe, Sallyanne; Castles, Anne

    2012-10-01

    Two prominent dual-route computational models of reading aloud are the dual-route cascaded (DRC) model, and the connectionist dual-process plus (CDP+) model. While sharing similarly designed lexical routes, the two models differ greatly in their respective nonlexical route architecture, such that they often differ on nonword pronunciation. Neither model has been appropriately tested for nonword reading pronunciation accuracy to date. We argue that empirical data on the nonword reading pronunciation of people is the ideal benchmark for testing. Data were gathered from 45 Australian-English-speaking psychology undergraduates reading aloud 412 nonwords. To provide contrast between the models, the nonwords were chosen specifically because DRC and CDP+ disagree on their pronunciation. Both models failed to accurately match the experiment data, and both have deficiencies in nonword reading performance. However, the CDP+ model performed significantly worse than the DRC model. CDP++, the recent successor to CDP+, had improved performance over CDP+, but was also significantly worse than DRC. In addition to highlighting performance shortcomings in each model, the variety of nonword responses given by participants points to a need for models that can account for this variety.

  17. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  18. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  19. Adaptive Agent Model with Hybrid Routing Selection Strategy for Improving the Road-Network Congestion Problem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin Jiang; Chao Yang; Takao Terano

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an adaptive agent model with a hybrid routing selection strategy for studying the road⁃network congestion problem. We focus on improving those severely congested links. Firstly, a multi⁃agent system is built, where each agent stands for a vehicle, and it makes its routing selection by considering the shortest path and the minimum congested degree of the target link simultaneously. The agent⁃based model captures the nonlinear feedback between vehicle routing behaviors and road⁃network congestion status. Secondly, a hybrid routing selection strategy is provided, which guides the vehicle routes adapting to the real⁃time road⁃network congestion status. On this basis, we execute simulation experiments and compare the simulation results of network congestion distribution, by Floyd agent with shortest path strategy and our proposed adaptive agent with hybrid strategy. The simulation results show that our proposed model has reduced the congestion degree of those seriously congested links of road⁃network. Finally, we execute our model on a real road map. The results finds that those seriously congested roads have some common features such as located at the road junction or near the unique road connecting two areas. And, the results also show an effectiveness of our model on reduction of those seriously congested links in this actual road network. Such a bottom⁃up congestion control approach with a hybrid congestion optimization perspective will have its significance for actual traffic congestion control.

  20. Modeling of taxi drivers’ experience for routing applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAW; ShihLung

    2010-01-01

    Taxi drivers drive on the roads every day and become very knowledgeable of the spatiotemporal traffic patterns in a city.It therefore is reasonable to assume that the routes chosen by taxi drivers often work out better than those selected by other drivers.Since dynamic navigation assistance based on real-time traffic information faces limitations such as the spatial coverage of real-time data collection sites,performance of real-time data processing and communications,and accuracy of short-term traffic forecasts in a large urban area,experiences gained by taxi drivers can be a valuable data source for improving the quality of vehicle navigation guidance.This paper develops a vehicle navigation guidance system based on taxis drivers’ knowledge derived from floating car data collected over an extended time period.We then classify road segments based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of taxi tracking data.A case study using taxi tracking data collected in Wuhan,China is presented in this paper to demonstrate the performance of this vehicle navigation system based on taxi tracking data.

  1. Traffic Route Modelling and Assignment with Intelligent Transport System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunicina Nadezhda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of signal transmitting environment for multimodal traffic control will enhance the integration of emergency and specialized transport routing tools in usual traffic control paradigms - it is one of the opportunities offered by modern intelligent traffic control systems. The improvement of effective electric power use in public transport system is an advantage of Intelligent Transport System (ITS. The research is connected with the improvement of on-line traffic control and adaptation of special traffic lighting alternatives by ITS. The assignment of the nearest appropriate transport will be done by passenger request, but unlike information system, the transport planning is done on demand. The task can be solved with the help of modern technical methods and equipment, as well as by applying control paradigms of the distributed systems. The problem is solved with the help of calculations hyper-graph and scheduling theory. The goal of the research is to develop methods, which support scheduling of the emergency transport, using high performance computing.

  2. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  3. Hitchhikers on trade routes: A phenology model estimates the probabilities of gypsy moth introduction and establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, David R

    2010-12-01

    As global trade increases so too does the probability of introduction of alien species to new locations. Estimating the probability of an alien species introduction and establishment following introduction is a necessary step in risk estimation (probability of an event times the consequences, in the currency of choice, of the event should it occur); risk estimation is a valuable tool for reducing the risk of biological invasion with limited resources. The Asian gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), is a pest species whose consequence of introduction and establishment in North America and New Zealand warrants over US$2 million per year in surveillance expenditure. This work describes the development of a two-dimensional phenology model (GLS-2d) that simulates insect development from source to destination and estimates: (1) the probability of introduction from the proportion of the source population that would achieve the next developmental stage at the destination and (2) the probability of establishment from the proportion of the introduced population that survives until a stable life cycle is reached at the destination. The effect of shipping schedule on the probabilities of introduction and establishment was examined by varying the departure date from 1 January to 25 December by weekly increments. The effect of port efficiency was examined by varying the length of time that invasion vectors (shipping containers and ship) were available for infection. The application of GLS-2d is demonstrated using three common marine trade routes (to Auckland, New Zealand, from Kobe, Japan, and to Vancouver, Canada, from Kobe and from Vladivostok, Russia).

  4. Validating the Runoff from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale Routing Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Lijuan; DONG Wenjie; XU Yinlong; ZHANG Yong; Michael SPARROW

    2007-01-01

    The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) regional climate model driven by 15-year (1979-1993) ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model (LRM). The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°× 1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin. The PRECISLRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.

  5. Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Routing in 2D Mesh with Cracky Rectangular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly focuses on routing in two-dimensional mesh networks. We propose a novel faulty block model, which is cracky rectangular block, for fault-tolerant adaptive routing. All the faulty nodes and faulty links are surrounded in this type of block, which is a convex structure, in order to avoid routing livelock. Additionally, the model constructs the interior spanning forest for each block in order to keep in touch with the nodes inside of each block. The procedure for block construction is dynamically and totally distributed. The construction algorithm is simple and ease of implementation. And this is a fully adaptive block which will dynamically adjust its scale in accordance with the situation of networks, either the fault emergence or the fault recovery, without shutdown of the system. Based on this model, we also develop a distributed fault-tolerant routing algorithm. Then we give the formal proof for this algorithm to guarantee that messages will always reach their destinations if and only if the destination nodes keep connecting with these mesh networks. So the new model and routing algorithm maximize the availability of the nodes in networks. This is a noticeable overall improvement of fault tolerability of the system.

  6. Modeling the Multicommodity Multimodal Routing Problem with Schedule-Based Services and Carbon Dioxide Emission Costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore a freight routing problem wherein the aim is to assign optimal routes to move commodities through a multimodal transportation network. This problem belongs to the operational level of service network planning. The following formulation characteristics will be comprehensively considered: (1 multicommodity flow routing; (2 a capacitated multimodal transportation network with schedule-based rail services and time-flexible road services; (3 carbon dioxide emissions consideration; and (4 a generalized costs optimum oriented to customer demands. The specific planning of freight routing is thus defined as a capacitated time-sensitive multicommodity multimodal generalized shortest path problem. To solve this problem systematically, we first establish a node-arc-based mixed integer nonlinear programming model that combines the above formulation characteristics in a comprehensive manner. Then, we develop a linearization method to transform the proposed model into a linear one. Finally, a computational experiment from the Chinese inland container export business is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and linearization method. The computational results indicate that implementing the proposed model and linearization method in the mathematical programming software Lingo can effectively solve the large-scale practical multicommodity multimodal transportation routing problem.

  7. DRC: a dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltheart, M; Rastle, K; Perry, C; Langdon, R; Ziegler, J

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the Dual Route Cascaded (DRC) model, a computational model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. The DRC is a computational realization of the dual-route theory of reading, and is the only computational model of reading that can perform the 2 tasks most commonly used to study reading: lexical decision and reading aloud. For both tasks, the authors show that a wide variety of variables that influence human latencies influence the DRC model's latencies in exactly the same way. The DRC model simulates a number of such effects that other computational models of reading do not, but there appear to be no effects that any other current computational model of reading can simulate but that the DRC model cannot. The authors conclude that the DRC model is the most successful of the existing computational models of reading.

  8. Stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem: Mathematical models and ant colony algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengyu Duan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem. Two mathematical models named robust optimal schedule time model and minimum expected schedule time model are proposed for stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem, which can guarantee delivery within the time windows of customers. The robust optimal schedule time model only requires the variation range of link travel time, which can be conveniently derived from historical traffic data. In addition, the robust optimal schedule time model based on robust optimization method can be converted into a time-dependent vehicle routing problem. Moreover, an ant colony optimization algorithm is designed to solve stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem. As the improvements in initial solution and transition probability, ant colony optimization algorithm has a good performance in convergence. Through computational instances and Monte Carlo simulation tests, robust optimal schedule time model is proved to be better than minimum expected schedule time model in computational efficiency and coping with the travel time fluctuations. Therefore, robust optimal schedule time model is applicable in real road network.

  9. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  10. WATER QUALITY MODELING AND POLLUTION CONTROL FOR THE EASTERN ROUTE OF SOUTH TO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Chao; WANG Yan-ying; WANG Pei-fang

    2006-01-01

    South to North Water Transfer Project in China is the largest project over centuries to solve the water shortage problem in vast areas of northern China. It comprises of three routes: the eastern, central and western route and this study mainly focused on the eastern route. As water quality is the key factor for the eastern route, this paper examined the main factors influencing water quality of the main route south of the Yellow River, by investigating the point source, non-point source (diffusive source) and internal source pollutions along the main eastern route and in its drainage basins, and assessing the current water quality in the waterways. According to the complicated and combined systems of rivers and lakes in this route, one-dimensional water quantity and quality model for rivers and two-dimensional model for lakes were developed to simulate the hydrodynamic and pollutant transport processes. The numerical method and model algorithm were described. The values of model parameters were estimated by using field-monitoring data along the main route and the inverse modeling technique. Established models were employed to predict the degradations of CODMn and NH4+-N in the main stream, under the conditions of current pollution loads and different hydrologic conditions. Schemes were present for controlling total quantities of pollutants from point source and non-point source along the main route to secure water quality for the eastern route.

  11. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  12. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  13. Evaluating environmental modeling and sampling data with biomarker data to identify sources and routes of exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hyeong-Moo; McKone, Thomas E.; Bennett, Deborah H.

    2013-04-01

    Exposure to environmental chemicals results from multiple sources, environmental media, and exposure routes. Ideally, modeled exposures should be compared to biomonitoring data. This study compares the magnitude and variation of modeled polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposures resulting from emissions to outdoor and indoor air and estimated exposure inferred from biomarker levels. Outdoor emissions result in both inhalation and food-based exposures. We modeled PAH intake doses using U.S. EPA's 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) county-level emissions data for outdoor inhalation, the CalTOX model for food ingestion (based on NATA emissions), and indoor air concentrations from field studies for indoor inhalation. We then compared the modeled intake with the measured urine levels of hydroxy-PAH metabolites from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) survey as quantifiable human intake of PAH parent-compounds. Lognormal probability plots of modeled intakes and estimated intakes inferred from biomarkers suggest that a primary route of exposure to naphthalene, fluorene, and phenanthrene for the U.S. population is likely inhalation from indoor sources. For benzo(a)pyrene, the predominant exposure route is likely from food ingestion resulting from multi-pathway transport and bioaccumulation due to outdoor emissions. Multiple routes of exposure are important for pyrene. We also considered the sensitivity of the predicted exposure to the proportion of the total naphthalene production volume emitted to the indoor environment. The comparison of PAH biomarkers with exposure variability estimated from models and sample data for various exposure pathways supports that both indoor and outdoor models are needed to capture the sources and routes of exposure to environmental contaminants.

  14. Route Design Model of Feeder Bus Service for Urban Rail Transit Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenjun Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As an important part of urban public transportation systems, the feeder bus fills a service gap left by rail transit, effectively extending the range of rail transit’s service and solving the problem of short-distance travel and interchanges. By defining the potential demand of feeder bus services and considering its relationship with the traffic demands of corresponding staging areas, the distance between road and rail transit, and the repetition factor of road bus lines, this paper established a potential demand model of roads by opening feeder bus services and applying a logit model for passenger flow distribution. Based on a circular route model, a route starting and ending at urban rail transit stations was generated, and a genetic algorithm was then applied to solve it. The Wei-Fang community of Shanghai was selected as the test area. Per the model and algorithm, the feeder route length was conformed to a functional orientation of short-distance travel and the feeder service of a feeder bus; the route mostly covered where conventional bus lines were fewer, which is a finding that is in agreement with the actual situation; the feasibility of the model and algorithm was verified.

  15. A Mathematical model to predict the US Airlines operation costs and airports charges per route per passenger

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmona Benitez, R.B.; Lodewijiks, G.

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model to estimate the average airlines operational costs and airports charges per route is important for airlines companies trying to open new routes and for data generation for other purpose such as transport modeling, simulation modeling, investment analyses for airlines and airport

  16. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  17. 初始条件对驾驶员逐日路径选择行为和网络交通流演化的影响%Influence of Initial Conditions on Drivers’Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior and Network Traffic flow Evolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘诗序; 关宏志; 严海

    2012-01-01

    从查阅到的文献可以看到,在驾驶员逐日路径选择行为及网络交通流演化的研究中,均假定驾驶员第1天对路径的理解行程时间相同,也即初始条件中没有考虑驾驶员的个体差异性.首先,对初始条件和驾驶员逐日路径选择过程建模,在2条平行路径的简单路网中,运用Agent仿真方法模拟了不同初始条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择过程.结果表明:路网达到平衡所需的时间与驾驶员对历史信息的依赖程度显著相关,而与第1天驾驶员对路径行程时间理解的相关差异性不显著;路网平衡和用户平衡的差别与两者均显著相关.虽然在不同情况下路网均能够达到近似的用户平衡状态,但是平衡时驾驶员对2条路径的理解行程时间存在较大差异.%From previous studies of drivers' day-to-day route choice behavior and network traffic flow evolution, it is assumed that the first day's perceived travel time on route is the same. In other words, the diversity of drivers is not taken into account in the initial conditions. Firstly, initial condition and drivers' day-to-day route choice process are modeled. Then, drivers' day-to-day route choice process in a simple road network with two parallel routes is simulated by Agent simulation method. The results show that the time required when network reaches equilibrium is significantly associated with drivers' reliance on the historical information but is not significantly associated with the differences of drivers' perceived travel time on routes on the first day. However, the difference between network equilibrium and user equilibrium is both significantly associated with the two factors. Moreover, although network equilibrium under different conditions is similar to user equilibrium, drivers' perceived travel time on the two routes is quite different when network reaches equilibrium.

  18. Using radar altimetry to update a routing model of the Zambezi River Basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michailovsky, Claire Irene B.; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Satellite radar altimetry allows for the global monitoring of lakes and river levels. However, the widespread use of altimetry for hydrological studies is limited by the coarse temporal and spatial resolution provided by current altimetric missions and the fact that discharge rather than level...... is needed for hydrological applications. To overcome these limitations, altimetry river levels can be combined with hydrological modeling in a dataassimilation framework. This study focuses on the updating of a river routing model of the Zambezi using river levels from radar altimetry. A hydrological model...... of the basin was built to simulate the land phase of the water cycle and produce inflows to a Muskingum routing model. River altimetry from the ENVISAT mission was then used to update the storages in the reaches of the Muskingum model using the Extended Kalman Filter. The method showed improvements in modeled...

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER FLOOD ROUTING MODEL USING NON-LINEAR MUSKINGUM EQUATION AND EXCEL TOOL 'GANetXL'

    OpenAIRE

    Briti Sundar Sil; Angana Borah; Subhrajyoti Deb; Biplab Das

    2016-01-01

    Flood routing is of utmost importance to water resources engineers and hydrologist. Muskingum model is one of the popular methods for river flood routing which often require a huge computational work. To solve the routing parameters, most of the established methods require knowledge about different computer programmes and sophisticated models. So, it is beneficial to have a tool which is comfortable to users having more knowledge about everyday decision making problems rather than the develop...

  20. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundamental...... parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner's or charterer's speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved....

  1. Genetic and Environmental Bases of Reading and Spelling: A Unified Genetic Dual Route Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Timothy C.; Castles, Anne; Luciano, Michelle; Wright, Margaret J.; Coltheart, Max; Martin, Nicholas G.

    2007-01-01

    We develop and test a dual-route model of genetic effects on reading aloud and spelling, based on irregular and non-word reading and spelling performance assessed in 1382 monozygotic and dizygotic twins. As in earlier research, most of the variance in reading was due to genetic effects. However, there were three more specific conclusions: the…

  2. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...

  3. Novel Routes to Model Colloids: ellipsoids, latices and stable meso-emulsions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sacanna, S.

    2007-01-01

    The research described in this thesis focuses on novel synthetic strategies for the preparation of well-defined model colloids. The preparation routes, involving self-assembly, emulsions and colloidal templating, are meant to facilitate design and fabrication of complex multi-shell composite

  4. A data model for route planning in the case of forest fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Z.; Zlatanova, S.; Moreno, A.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Toro, C.

    2013-01-01

    The ability to guide relief vehicles to safety and quickly pass through environments affected by fires is critical in fighting forest fires. In this paper, we focus on route determination in the case of forest fires, and propose a data model that supports finding paths among moving obstacles. This d

  5. Indoor Pedestrian Navigation Based on Hybrid Route Planning and Location Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Grønbæk, Kaj; Scharling, Tejs

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces methods and services called PerPosNav for development of custom indoor pedestrian navigation applications to be deployed on a variety of platforms. PerPosNav combines symbolic and geometry based modeling of buildings, and in turn combines graph-based and geometric route...

  6. GIS-ROUT: a river model for watershed planning

    OpenAIRE

    Xinhao Wang; Charlotte White-Hull; Scott Dyer; Ying Yang

    2000-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that significant environmental changes are the result of human activities such as urbanization occurring at the spatial scale of landscapes. The challenge faced by many planners today is how to understand such relationships in order to support integrated watershed planning and management. Although many mathematical models have been developed to simulate the chemical transport process in a river, few are actually used in watershed assessment and management. Recently...

  7. Kondo route to spin inhomogeneities in the honeycomb Kitaev model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, S. D.; Dhochak, K.; Tripathi, V.

    2016-07-01

    Paramagnetic impurities in a quantum spin liquid give rise to Kondo effects with highly unusual properties. We have studied the effect of locally coupling a paramagnetic impurity with the spin-1/2 honeycomb Kitaev model in its gapless spin-liquid phase. The ( impurity) scaling equations are found to be insensitive to the sign of the coupling. The weak and strong coupling fixed points are stable, with the latter corresponding to a noninteracting vacancy and an interacting, spin-1 defect for the antiferromagnetic and ferromagnetic cases, respectively. The ground state in the strong coupling limit in both cases has a nontrivial topology associated with a finite Z(2) flux at the impurity site. For the antiferromagnetic case, this result has been obtained straightforwardly owing to the integrability of the Kitaev model with a vacancy. The strong-coupling limit of the ferromagnetic case is, however, nonintegrable, and we address this problem through exact-diagonalization calculations with finite Kitaev fragments. Our exact diagonalization calculations indicate that the weak-to-strong coupling transition and the topological phase transition occur rather close to each other and are possibly coincident. We also find an intriguing similarity between the magnetic response of the defect and the impurity susceptibility in the two-channel Kondo problem.

  8. FLOOD ROUTING MODELS IN CONFLUENT AND DIVIDING CHANNELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范平; 李家春; 刘青泉

    2004-01-01

    By introducing a water depth connecting formula, the hydraulic equations in the dividing channel system were coupled and the relation of discharge distribution between the branches of the dividing channels can be yielded. In this manner, a numerical model for the confluent channels was established to study the variation of backwater effects with the parameters in the channel junction. The meeting of flood peaks in the mainstream and tributary can be analyzed with this model. The flood peak meeting is found to be a major factor for the extremely high water level in the mainstream during the 1998 Yangtze River flood. Subsequently the variations of discharge distribution and water level with channel parameters between each branch in this system were studied as well. As a result, flood evolution caused by Jingjiang River shortcut and sediment deposition in the entrance of dividing channels of the Yangtze River may be qualitatively elucidated. It is suggested to be an effective measure for flood mitigation to enhance regulation capability of reservoirs available upstream of the tributaries and harness branch entrance channels.

  9. Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guyt, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences

  10. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in m

  11. The Use of Predictive Models in Forecasting Student Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckman, Howard P.

    This paper uses ordinary least squares regression to obtain probabilities for the post-graduation choices of high school seniors, and it presents an illustration of the use of these probabilities in calculating future income. Problems raised by the use of the least squares regression are discussed. The benefits of higher education and ways in…

  12. Modeling brand choice using boosted and stacked neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Potharst (Rob); M. van Rijthoven; M.C. van Wezel (Michiel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the

  13. New optimization model for routing and spectrum assignment with nodes insecurity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan, Hejun; Wang, Yuping; Xu, Zhanqi; Hao, Shanshan; Wang, Xiaoli

    2017-04-01

    By adopting the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing technology, elastic optical networks can provide the flexible and variable bandwidth allocation to each connection request and get higher spectrum utilization. The routing and spectrum assignment problem in elastic optical network is a well-known NP-hard problem. In addition, information security has received worldwide attention. We combine these two problems to investigate the routing and spectrum assignment problem with the guaranteed security in elastic optical network, and establish a new optimization model to minimize the maximum index of the used frequency slots, which is used to determine an optimal routing and spectrum assignment schemes. To solve the model effectively, a hybrid genetic algorithm framework integrating a heuristic algorithm into a genetic algorithm is proposed. The heuristic algorithm is first used to sort the connection requests and then the genetic algorithm is designed to look for an optimal routing and spectrum assignment scheme. In the genetic algorithm, tailor-made crossover, mutation and local search operators are designed. Moreover, simulation experiments are conducted with three heuristic strategies, and the experimental results indicate that the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm framework.

  14. Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

    2014-12-01

    Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

  15. a Gis-Based Model for Post-Earthquake Personalized Route Planning Using the Integration of Evolutionary Algorithm and Owa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, A.

    2015-12-01

    Being one of the natural disasters, earthquake can seriously damage buildings, urban facilities and cause road blockage. Post-earthquake route planning is problem that has been addressed in frequent researches. The main aim of this research is to present a route planning model for after earthquake. It is assumed in this research that no damage data is available. The presented model tries to find the optimum route based on a number of contributing factors which mainly indicate the length, width and safety of the road. The safety of the road is represented by a number of criteria such as distance to faults, percentage of non-standard buildings and percentage of high buildings around the route. An integration of genetic algorithm and ordered weighted averaging operator is employed in the model. The former searches the problem space among all alternatives, while the latter aggregates the scores of road segments to compute an overall score for each alternative. Ordered weighted averaging operator enables the users of the system to evaluate the alternative routes based on their decision strategy. Based on the proposed model, an optimistic user tries to find the shortest path between the two points, whereas a pessimistic user tends to pay more attention to safety parameters even if it enforces a longer route. The results depicts that decision strategy can considerably alter the optimum route. Moreover, post-earthquake route planning is a function of not only the length of the route but also the probability of the road blockage.

  16. Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling approach to determine the fastest delivery routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abousaeidi, Mohammad; Fauzi, Rosmadi; Muhamad, Rusnah

    2016-09-01

    This study involves the adoption of the Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling approach to determine the quickest routes for fresh vegetable delivery. During transport, fresh vegetables mainly deteriorate on account of temperature and delivery time. Nonetheless, little attention has been directed to transportation issues in most areas within Kuala Lumpur. In addition, perishable food normally has a short shelf life, thus timely delivery significantly affects delivery costs. Therefore, selecting efficient routes would consequently reduce the total transportation costs. The regression model is applied in this study to determine the parameters that affect route selection with respect to the fastest delivery of fresh vegetables. For the purpose of this research, ArcGIS software with network analyst extension is adopted to solve the problem of complex networks. The final output of this research is a map of quickest routes with the best delivery times based on all variables. The variables tested from regression analysis are the most effective parameters to make the flow of road networks slower. The objective is to improve the delivery services by achieving the least drive time. The main findings of this research are that Land use such as residential area and population as variables are the effective parameters on drive time.

  17. Performance Evaluation of Two Reactive Routing Protocols of MANET using Group Mobility Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harminder S. Bindra

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Mobile ad-hoc network is a collection of wireless mobile hosts forming a temporary network without the aid of any stand-alone infrastructure or centralized administration. Mobile ad-hoc network have the attributes such as wireless connection, continuously changing topology, distributed operation and ease of deployment. In this paper we have compared the performance of two reactive MANET routing protocol AODV and DSR by using Group mobility model. Both share similar On-Demand behavior, but the protocol's internal mechanism leads to significant performance difference. We have analyzed the performance of protocols by varying network load, mobility and type of traffic (CBR and TCP. Group Mobility model has been generated by IMPORTANT (Impact of Mobility Patterns on Routing in Ad-hoc NeTwork tool. A detailed simulation has been carried out in NS2. The metrics used for performance analysis are Packet Delivery Fraction, Average end-to-end Delay, Routing Overhead and Normalized Routing Load. It has been observed that AODV gives better performance in CBR traffic and real time delivery of packet. Where as DSR gives better results in TCP traffic and under restricted bandwidth condition.

  18. Geographic Information System (GIS modeling approach to determine the fastest delivery routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Abousaeidi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study involves the adoption of the Geographic Information System (GIS modeling approach to determine the quickest routes for fresh vegetable delivery. During transport, fresh vegetables mainly deteriorate on account of temperature and delivery time. Nonetheless, little attention has been directed to transportation issues in most areas within Kuala Lumpur. In addition, perishable food normally has a short shelf life, thus timely delivery significantly affects delivery costs. Therefore, selecting efficient routes would consequently reduce the total transportation costs. The regression model is applied in this study to determine the parameters that affect route selection with respect to the fastest delivery of fresh vegetables. For the purpose of this research, ArcGIS software with network analyst extension is adopted to solve the problem of complex networks. The final output of this research is a map of quickest routes with the best delivery times based on all variables. The variables tested from regression analysis are the most effective parameters to make the flow of road networks slower. The objective is to improve the delivery services by achieving the least drive time. The main findings of this research are that Land use such as residential area and population as variables are the effective parameters on drive time.

  19. A Mathematical Model for the Industrial Hazardous Waste Location-Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Boyer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Technology progress is a cause of industrial hazardous wastes increasing in the whole world . Management of hazardous waste is a significant issue due to the imposed risk on environment and human life. This risk can be a result of location of undesirable facilities and also routing hazardous waste. In this paper a biobjective mixed integer programing model for location-routing industrial hazardous waste with two objectives is developed. First objective is total cost minimization including transportation cost, operation cost, initial investment cost, and cost saving from selling recycled waste. Second objective is minimization of transportation risk. Risk of population exposure within bandwidth along route is used to measure transportation risk. This model can help decision makers to locate treatment, recycling, and disposal centers simultaneously and also to route waste between these facilities considering risk and cost criteria. The results of the solved problem prove conflict between two objectives. Hence, it is possible to decrease the cost value by marginally increasing the transportation risk value and vice versa. A weighted sum method is utilized to combine two objectives function into one objective function. To solve the problem GAMS software with CPLEX solver is used. The problem is applied in Markazi province in Iran.

  20. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    working hours) as the penalty of late arrival is very likely to be higher for individuals with constraints on arrival time. However, flexibility is not only a matter of fixed arrival time. Activities can be mandatory or discretionary (Yamamoto and Kitamura, 1999), performed alone or jointly with family......D thesis is as follows. Firstly, it provides evidence of a fully efficient stated choice design for a departure time context. Using a pivot design (Rose et al., 2008) built around a reference trip (usually from the day before), the thesis shows that the efficient design performs well in cases where good...... whether they are constrained. The thesis also provides empirical evidences of the policy implication of not accounting for other activities and their constraints. Thirdly, the thesis shows that the departure time choice can be partly explained by psychological factors, which have previously been neglected...

  1. Accounting for choice of measurement scale in extreme value modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Wadsworth, J. L.; Tawn, J. A.; Jonathan, P.

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the effect that the choice of measurement scale has upon inference and extrapolation in extreme value analysis. Separate analyses of variables from a single process on scales which are linked by a nonlinear transformation may lead to discrepant conclusions concerning the tail behavior of the process. We propose the use of a Box--Cox power transformation incorporated as part of the inference procedure to account parametrically for the uncertainty surrounding the scale of extrapo...

  2. Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

  3. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? : A Case Study on Electric Cars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Font Vivanco, D.; Tukker, A.; Kemp, R.

    2016-01-01

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes i

  4. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  5. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  6. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice.

  7. 基于业务感知和策略选择的认知路由算法%Cognitive network routing algorithm based on service awareness and policy choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾成杰; 张顺颐; 孙雁飞

    2011-01-01

    A cognitive network routing (CNR) algorithm based on service awareness and policy choice oriented to cognitive network was proposed. This algorithm takes network resource, flow, policy choice into account and obtains the flow characteristics and network resources condition in advance. CNR algorithm fulfills the distribution of resources through offline network allocation and gets the optimal path of each flow by online path computation. Simulation verified the effectiveness of cognitive network routing algorithm and showed that compared with the traditional routing algorithms, the cognitive network routing algorithm can improve the cognitive utilization of network resources, avoid network congestion coursed by resources allocation and optimize network performance at different levels.%提出了一种基于业务感知和策略选择的认知路由(cognitive network routing)算法.该算法面向认知网络环境综合考虑了网络资源、业务流、策略选择等要素,在获知网络中业务流的宏观特征和需求的前提下,首先通过离线资源分配将网络资源按照业务流的固有分配特征预先配置给不同类型的业务流,然后通过在线路径计算实时得出各个业务流的最优路径.仿真实验验证了认知路由算法的有效性,对比于MIRA、SWP路由算法,CNR算法可以提高网络资源利用率,避免因资源不均衡产生的网络拥塞,能够在业务流和资源2个层面优化网络性能.

  8. Bayesian nonparametric estimation and consistency of mixed multinomial logit choice models

    CERN Document Server

    De Blasi, Pierpaolo; Lau, John W; 10.3150/09-BEJ233

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random utility maximization, subject to the identification of an unknown distribution $G$. Noting the mixture model description of the MMNL, we employ a Bayesian nonparametric approach, using nonparametric priors on the unknown mixing distribution $G$, to estimate choice probabilities. We provide an important theoretical support for the use of the proposed methodology by investigating consistency of the posterior distribution for a general nonparametric prior on the mixing distribution. Consistency is defined according to an $L_1$-type distance on the space of choice probabilities and is achieved by extending to a regression model framework a recent approach to strong consistency based on the summability of square roots of prior probabilities. Moving to estimation, slightly different te...

  9. Digital model of underground tourist route “St. John’s Mine” in Krobica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Moczydłowska

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A general characteristics of “St. John’s Mine” tourist route (“Kopalnia Św. Jana”, Krobica, Lower Silesia has been shown, containing the history of mining workings, geology and stages of it’s investigation, protection and adaptation for a tourist traffic. The steps of construction of it’s spatial model, in Datamine Studio 3 software, are presented. The resulting model has been proposed as a complementary element of “Mine St. John’s Mine” tourist offer. It can be used as part of the introduction on the beginning of the route, and as a basis for the creation of an interactive model of the tourist facility.

  10. A Novel Methodology to Overcome Routing Misbehavior in Manet using Retaliation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Amir Khusru Akhtar

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available MANET is a cooperative network in which nodes are responsible for forwarding as well as routing.Noncooperation is still a big challenge that certainly degrades the performance and reliability of aMANET. This paper presents a novel methodology to overcome routing misbehavior in MANET usingRetaliation Model. In this model node misbehavior is watched and an equivalent misbehavior is given inreturn. This model employs several parameters such as number of packets forwarded, number of packetsreceived for forwarding, packet forwarding ratio etc. to calculate Grade and Bonus Points. The Grade isused to isolate selfish nodes from the routing paths and the Bonus Points defines the number of packetsdropped by an honest node in retaliation over its misconducts. The implementation is done in “GloMoSim”on top of the DSR protocol. We obtained up to 40% packet delivery ratio with a cost of a minimum of 7.5%overhead compared to DSR. To minimize total control traffic overhead we have included the FG Modelwith our model and it reduces the overhead up to 75%. This model enforces cooperation due to its stricterpunishment strategy and justifies its name.

  11. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  12. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  13. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  14. A Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Study of Lexical Decision Task Supports the Dual Route Model and the Phonological Deficit Theory of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Itamar; Izzetoglu, Meltem; Izzetoglu, Kurtulus; Onaral, Banu

    2014-01-01

    The dual route model (DRM) of reading suggests two routes of reading development: the phonological and the orthographic routes. It was proposed that although the two routes are active in the process of reading; the first is more involved at the initial stages of reading acquisition, whereas the latter needs more reading training to mature. A…

  15. A Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Study of Lexical Decision Task Supports the Dual Route Model and the Phonological Deficit Theory of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Itamar; Izzetoglu, Meltem; Izzetoglu, Kurtulus; Onaral, Banu

    2014-01-01

    The dual route model (DRM) of reading suggests two routes of reading development: the phonological and the orthographic routes. It was proposed that although the two routes are active in the process of reading; the first is more involved at the initial stages of reading acquisition, whereas the latter needs more reading training to mature. A…

  16. A mathematical modeling proposal for a Multiple Tasks Periodic Capacitated Arc Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleverson Gonçalves dos Santos

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The countless accidents and incidents occurred at dams at the last years, propelled the development of politics related with dams safety. One of the strategies is related to the plan for instrumentation and monitoring of dams. The monitoring demands from the technical team the reading of the auscultation data, in order to periodically monitor the dam. The monitoring plan of the dam can be modeled as a problem of mathematical program of the periodical capacitated arcs routing program (PCARP. The PCARP is considered as a generalization of the classic problem of routing in capacitated arcs (CARP due to two characteristics: 1 Planning period larger than a time unity, as that vehicle make several travels and; 2 frequency of associated visits to the arcs to be serviced over the planning horizon. For the dam's monitoring problem studied in this work, the frequent visits, along the time horizon, it is not associated to the arc, but to the instrument with which is intended to collect the data. Shows a new problem of Multiple tasks Periodic Capacitated Arc Routing Problem and its elaboration as an exact mathematical model. The new main characteristics presented are: multiple tasks to be performed on each edge or edges; different frequencies to accomplish each of the tasks; heterogeneous fleet; and flexibility for more than one vehicle passing through the same edge at the same day. The mathematical model was implemented and examples were generated randomly for the proposed model's validation.

  17. Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with a climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-X. Li

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is often believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC. One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was dispersed over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values, indicative of low salinity, from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage may have been confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of a southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route and to three different locations along the southerly route, were performed to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modeling results show that a southerly drainage route is possible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly. The implicated large amount of LAO drainage for a southerly routing scenario is in line with a recent geophysical modelling study of gravitational effects on sea-level change associated with the 8.2 ka event, which suggests that the volume of drainage might be larger than previously estimated.

  18. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education...

  19. A communication model based on n-dimensional Torus Architecture using dead-lock-free wormhole routing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holzenspies, P.K.F.; Schepers, Erik; Bach, Wouter; Jonker, Mischa; Sikkes, Bart; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Havinga, Paul J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Routing on a two-dimensional torus architecture by means of the wormhole routing algorithm is introduced and extended to an n-dimensional torus model. To prevent blocking deadlocks caused by this algorithm, a multiple virtual channel solution is introduced. An implementation of virtual channels is

  20. Indoor Pedestrian Navigation Based on Hybrid Route Planning and Location Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Grønbæk, Kaj; Scharling, Tejs

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces methods and services called PerPosNav for development of custom indoor pedestrian navigation applications to be deployed on a variety of platforms. PerPosNav combines symbolic and geometry based modeling of buildings, and in turn combines graph-based and geometric route...... computation. The paper argues why these hybrid approaches are necessary to handle the challenges of in-door pedestrian navigation...

  1. MODELING AND SOLVING A RICH VEHICLE ROUTING PROBLEM FOR THE DELIVERY OF GOODS IN URBAN AREAS

    OpenAIRE

    José Ferreira de Souza Neto; Vitória Pureza

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT This work addresses a vehicle routing problem that aims at representing delivery operations of large volumes of products in dense urban areas. Inspired by a case study in a drinks producer and distributor, we propose a mathematical programming model and solution approaches that take into account costs with own and chartered vehicles, multiple deliverymen, time windows in customers, compatibility of vehicles and customers, time limitations for the circulation of large vehicles in city...

  2. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Oh Young Kwon; So Youn Park

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods...

  3. Self Adaptive Trust Model for Secure Geographic Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Raghu Vamsi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The presence of malicious nodes in the ad hoc and sensor networks poses serious security attacks during routing which affects the network performance. To address such attacks, numerous researchers have proposed defense techniques using a human behavior pattern called trust. Among existing solutions, direct observations based trust models have gained significant attention in the research community. In this paper, the authors propose a Self Adaptive Trust Model (SATM of secure geographic routing in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. Unlike conventional weight based trust models, SATM intelligently assigns the weights associated with the network activities. These weights are applied to compute the final trust value. SATM considers direct observations to restrict the reputation based attacks. Due to the flexible and intelligent weight computation, SATM dynamically detects the malicious nodes and direct the traffic towards trustworthy nodes. SATM has been incorporated into Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing (GPSR protocol. Simulation results using the network simulator NS-2 have shown that GPSR with SATM is robust against detecting malicious nodes.

  4. Modeling On-Body DTN Packet Routing Delay in the Presence of Postural Disconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quwaider, Muhannad; Taghizadeh, Mahmoud; Biswas, Subir

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic modeling framework for store-and-forward packet routing in Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) with postural partitioning. A prototype WBANs has been constructed for experimentally characterizing and capturing on-body topology disconnections in the presence of ultrashort range radio links, unpredictable RF attenuation, and human postural mobility. Delay modeling techniques for evaluating single-copy on-body DTN routing protocols are then developed. End-to-end routing delay for a series of protocols including opportunistic, randomized, and two other mechanisms that capture multiscale topological localities in human postural movements have been evaluated. Performance of the analyzed protocols are then evaluated experimentally and via simulation to compare with the results obtained from the developed model. Finally, a mechanism for evaluating the topological importance of individual on-body sensor nodes is developed. It is shown that such information can be used for selectively reducing the on-body sensor-count without substantially sacrificing the packet delivery delay. PMID:25530749

  5. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  6. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  7. Tour Route Multiobjective Optimization Design Based on the Tourist Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The question prompted is how to design the tour route to make the tourists get the maximum satisfactions considering the tourists’ demand. The influence factors of the tour route choices of tourists were analyzed and tourists’ behavior characteristics and psychological preferences were regarded as the important influence factors based on the tourist behavioral theories. A questionnaire of tourists’ tour route information and satisfaction degree was carried out. Some information about the scene spot and tourists demand and tour behaviors characteristic such as visit frequency, number of attractions visited was obtained and analyzed. Based on the convey datum, tour routes multiobjective optimization functions were prompted for the tour route design regarding the maximum satisfaction and the minimum tour distance as the optimal objective. The available routes are listed and categorized. Based on the particle swarm optimization model, the priorities of the tour route are calculated and finally the suggestion depth tour route and quick route tour routes are given considering the different tour demands of tourists. The results can offer constructive suggestions on how to design tour routes on the part of tourism enterprises and how to choose a proper tour route on the part of tourists.

  8. An accessibility graph-based model to optimize tsunami evacuation sites and routes in Martinique, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péroche, M.; Leone, F.; Gutton, R.

    2014-01-01

    The risk of tsunami threatens the whole Caribbean coastline especially the Lesser Antilles. The first available models of tsunami propagation estimate that the travel time from the closest seismic sources would only take few minutes to impact the Martinique Island. Considering this threat, the most effective measure is a planned and organized evacuation of the coastal population. This requires an efficient regional warning system, estimation of the maximum expected tsunami flood height, preparation of the population to evacuate, and drawing up of local and regional emergency plans. In order to produce an efficient evacuation plan, we have to assess the number of people at risk, the potential evacuation routes, the safe areas and the available time to evacuate. However, this essential information is still lacking in the French West Indies emergency plans. This paper proposes a model of tsunami evacuation sites accessibility for Martinique directly addressed to decision makers. It is based on a population database at a local scale, the development of connected graphs of roads, the identification of potential safe areas and the velocity setting for pedestrians. Evacuation routes are calculated using the Dijkstra's algorithm which gives the shortest path between areas at risk and designated evacuation sites. The first results allow us to map the theoretical times and routes to keep the exposed population safe and to compare these results with a tsunami travel time scenario.

  9. Modelling of C2 addition route to the formation of C60

    CERN Document Server

    Khan, Sabih D

    2016-01-01

    To understand the phenomenon of fullerene growth during its synthesis, an attempt is made to model a minimum energy growth route using a semi-empirical quantum mechanics code. C2 addition leading to C60 was modelled and three main routes, i.e. cyclic ring growth, pentagon and fullerene road, were studied. The growth starts with linear chains and, at n = 10, ring structures begins to dominate. The rings continue to grow and, at some point n > 30, they transform into close-cage fullerenes and the growth is shown to progress by the fullerene road until C60 is formed. The computer simulations predict a transition from a C38 ring to fullerene. Other growth mechanisms could also occur in the energetic environment commonly encountered in fullerene synthesis, but our purpose was to identify a minimal energy route which is the most probable structure. Our results also indicate that, at n = 20, the corannulene structure is energetically more stable than the corresponding fullerene and graphene sheet, however a ring str...

  10. Dynamic Air-Route Adjustments - Model,Algorithm,and Sensitivity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GENG Rui; CHENG Peng; CUI Deguang

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic airspace management (DAM) is an important approach to extend limited air space resources by using them more efficiently and flexibly.This paper analyzes the use of the dynamic air-route adjustment (DARA) method as a core procedure in DAM systems.DARA method makes dynamic decisions on when and how to adjust the current air-route network with the minimum cost.This model differs from the air traffic flow management (ATFM) problem because it considers dynamic opening and closing of air-route segments instead of only arranging flights on a given air traffic network and it takes into account several new constraints,such as the shortest opening time constraint.The DARA problem is solved using a two-step heuristic algorithm.The sensitivities of important coefficients in the model are analyzed to determine proper values for these coefficients.The computational results based on practical data from the Beijing ATC region show that the two-step heuristic algorithm gives as good results as the CPLEX in less or equal time in most cases.

  11. The cultural route of present and lost landscapes in the centre of Bucharest - digital model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, Maria

    2015-04-01

    We are developing a digital model of the Magheru boulevard in central Bucharest. This N-S axis in the centre of the city is a unique encounter with interwar architecture. It is a protected area in the city, with buildings listed individually or as group of monuments, and also with protection at urban planning level. But at the same time the landscape does not facilitate the building of urban routes between monuments. A GIS model of the area exists, but does not yet take into account this heritage value of the buildings, being developed in a civil engineering environment. It is also one of the few partial 3D models of Bucharest. It allows datascapes of various buidling characteristics. At the same time a 3D model which equally covers all items in an area is ressources expensive. Hence, we propose, similarly to strategic planning to do a Kevin Lynch type selection. Landmarks will be identified as nodes of the routes, and the remaining area treated as zone. Ways connect the nodes and we paid special attention as we will see to their landscape. We developed a concept on how to further build from the idea of layers in GIS to include the issue of scale. As such, floor plans can build strategic points for the nodes of the route such as in Nolli or Sitte plans. Cooperation between GIS and GoogleEarth is envisaged, since GoogleEarth allows for detailing in SketchUp for the interior space. This way we developed an alternative digital model to the levels of detail of CityGML, the classical for 3D city models. The route itself is to be analysed with the method of Space Syntax. While this part of the research focused on the built heritage, on culture, we included also issues of landscape. First, the landscape of the boulevard has to be shaped as to build the route between these nodes of the route. Our concept includes the creation of pocket parks and of links between the pocket parks through vegetal and mineral elements to connect them. Existing urban spaces and empty plots are

  12. Implementation Weather-Type Models of Capacitated Arc Routing Problem via Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhaimy Ismail

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In this study, we introduced a new and real-life condition of Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (CARP, a model that represents vehicles operation in waste collection. In general, we studied the element of rain drops that affected the collected waste weight in total by imposed a new variable namely rainy weight age. In rainy days, the household refusals did not increase in volumes, but in weights due to rain drops. Consequently, this matter thus burdened vehicles capacity and prolonged its operation time. This dynamic variable thus changes the initial CARP model where the existing model did not consider other external elements that have effected onto the model. Approach: Then we developed and enhanced CARP by integrating stochastic demand and time windows to suit the models with our specific case. Results: Objectively, CARP with stochastic demand (CARPSD and CARP with time windows (CARPTW were designed to minimize the total routing cost and number of trips for a vehicle. Our approach is to design CARP models in almost likely to road layout in residential area and graphically this model is called mesh network. We also developed a constructive heuristic that is called nearest procedure based on highest demand/cost (NPHDC and work in conjunction with switching rules to search the feasible solution. Conclusion: Our preliminary results show a higher cost and more trips are needed when the vehicle operates in rainy day compared to normal day operation.

  13. Bayesian model choice for epidemic models with two levels of mixing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knock, Edward S; O'Neill, Philip D

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of choosing between competing models for infectious disease final outcome data in a population that is partitioned into households. The epidemic models are stochastic individual-based transmission models of the susceptible-infective-removed type. The main focus is on various algorithms for the estimation of Bayes factors, of which a path sampling-based algorithm is seen to give the best results. We also explore theoretical properties in the case where the within-model prior distributions become increasingly uninformative, which show the need for caution when using Bayes factors as a model choice tool. A suitable form of deviance information criterion is also considered for comparison. The theory and methods are illustrated with both artificial data, and influenza data from the Tecumseh study of illness.

  14. Vehicle Routing Choice Based on Bounded Rationality of Fuzzy Game Under No Guide Information%无诱导信息条件下基于有限理性模糊博弈的车辆路径选择

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史国强; 周代平; 聂化东; 闫广聪

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, fuzzy mathematics is used as the tool and reinforcement theory as the foundation to establish a model of vehicle routing choice with no guide information based on the bounded rational fuzzy game theory and simulate the game equilibrium through matlab under different initial states. The result shows that the initial allocation proportion of the road network traffic has no obvious effect on its balance status. At the same time, when the total network traffic reaches the traffic capacity of road network, the game result will achieve stable equilibrium. When the traffic is far greater than the road network capacity, the game result will reach the peak valley balance.%以模糊数学为工具、行为强化理论为基础,建立有限理性模糊博弈的无诱导信息车辆路径选择模型,通过Matlab仿真得出不同初始状态下的博弈平衡结果。结果表明:初始路网交通量的分配比例对路网的平衡状态无显著影响,且当路网交通总量接近路网的通行能力时,博弈结果会达到稳定平衡,当交通量远大于路网通行能力时,博弈结果则呈现峰谷平衡。

  15. Assimilation of radar altimetry to a routing model of the Brahmaputra River

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michailovsky, Claire Irene B.; Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2013-01-01

    predictions at daily or even subdaily temporal resolutions. One way to exploit satellite radar altimetry is therefore to combine the data with hydrological models in a data assimilation framework. In this study, radar altimetry data from six ENVISAT virtual stations were assimilated to a routing model...... quantities of interest. This is the case for satellite-based radar altimetry. River-level variations can be tracked using radar altimetry at a temporal resolution between 10 and 35 days, depending on the satellite, but hydrologists are typically interested in river flows rather than levels and require...

  16. Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with climate modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-X. Li

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is widely believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC. One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was spread over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage was probably confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of this southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four different routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route (R1 and to three different locations (Grand Banks – R2, George Bank – R3, and Cape Hatteras – R4 on the southerly route, were performed with 0.45 m sea-level equivalent (SLE, 0.90 m SLE, and 1.35 m SLE of freshwater introduced over 5 years to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modelling results show that a southerly drainage route is plausible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly.

  17. Partner choice promotes cooperation: the two faces of testing with agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campennì, Marco; Schino, Gabriele

    2014-03-07

    Reciprocity is one of the most debated among the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the evolution of cooperation. While a distinction can be made between two general processes that can underlie reciprocation (within-pair temporal relations between cooperative events, and partner choice based on benefits received), theoretical modelling has concentrated on the former, while the latter has been often neglected. We developed a set of agent-based models in which agents adopted a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received. Our models tested the ability of partner choice both to reproduce significant emergent features of cooperation in group living animals and to promote the evolution of cooperation. Populations formed by agents adopting a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received showed differentiated "social relationships" and a positive correlation between cooperation given and received, two common phenomena in animal cooperation. When selection across multiple generations was added to the model, agents adopting a strategy of partner choice based on benefits received outperformed selfish agents that did not cooperate. Our results suggest partner choice is a significant aspect of cooperation and provides a possible mechanism for its evolution.

  18. The Satellite Based Hydrological Model (SHM): Routing Scheme and its Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    kumari, Nikul; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Panigrahy, Niranjan; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghavendra P.

    2016-04-01

    The collection of spatially extensive data by using the traditional methods of data acquisition is a challenging task for a large territory like India. To overcome such problems, the Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), a large scale conceptual hydrological model for the Indian Territory, is being developed under the PRACRITI-2 program of the Space Applications Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad. The model aims at preparing sustainable water management scenarios using remote sensing data from Indian satellites to handle the fresh water crisis in India. There are five modules namely, Surface Water (SW), Forest (F), Snow (S), Groundwater (GW) and Routing (ROU) in the SHM. The SW, F and S modules convert rainfall into surface runoff and generate input (infiltration and percolation) for the GW module, and GW generates baseflow using that input. In this study, a cell-to-cell routing (ROU) module has been developed for SHM. It is based on the principle of Time Variant Spatially Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH) to route the generated runoff and baseflow generated by various modules upto the outlet. The entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cell are assumed to represent the property of the cell. In the routing scheme, for each cell a single downstream cell is defined in the direction of steepest descent, to create the flow network. These grid cells are classified into overland cells and channel cells based on the threshold value taken into consideration. The overland flow travel time of each overland cell is estimated by combining a steady state kinematic wave approximation with Manning's equation and the channel flow travel time of each channel cell is estimated using Manning's equation and the steady state continuity equation. The travel time for each cell is computed by dividing the travel distance through that cell with cell velocity. The cumulative travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet is the sum of

  19. Biostereometric Data Processing In ERGODATA: Choice Of Human Body Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, J. C.; Mollard, R.; Sauvignon, M.; Amphoux, M.

    1983-07-01

    The definition of human body models was elaborated with anthropometric data from ERGODATA. The first model reduces the human body into a series of points and lines. The second model is well adapted to represent volumes of each segmentary element. The third is an original model built from the conventional anatomical points. Each segment is defined in space by a tri-angular plane located with its 3-D coordinates. This new model can answer all the processing possibilities in the field of computer-aided design (C.A.D.) in ergonomy but also biomechanics and orthopaedics.

  20. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  1. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  2. Modeling and Analysis of Transitional Tube with Constant Sectional Area along Derivative Central Route

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MENG Xiang-bao; TONG Bao-guo; PAN Zi-jian; LI Hai-xing

    2011-01-01

    Firstly, sample square-circular transition tube along straight central route was modeled on CATIA software. The parameters are as follows: let the tube length is L, and the constant cross section area is S, and S = πR^2 = a2, in which R stands for the circle radius on one end, and a the square side length on the other end; set up the coordinate system with OX axis on the central route in which the origin O is on centroid of the square end and assume the cross section size at x as the square shaped with all four comers filleted in radius r which is proportional to x, that is, the linear slope of r is R/L, thus, both values r and square side length ax can be attained on the constant cross section area assumption. Secondly, some sample polygonal-circular transition tubes along straight, circular and helical central route were implemented similarly. Thirdly, numerical analysis of stress and displacement of these tubes were carried out on MSC/PATRAN software which are important to the distribution of turbulent flow and the layout of these transitional tube structures.

  3. In-residence, multiple route exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon estimated by indirect method models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschandreas, D. J.; Kim, Y.; Karuchit, S.; Ari, H.; Lebowitz, M. D.; O'Rourke, M. K.; Gordon, S.; Robertson, G.

    One of the objectives of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is to estimate exposures to several pollutants in multiple media and determine their distributions for the population of Arizona. This paper presents modeling methods used to estimate exposure distributions of chlorpyrifos and diazinon in the residential microenvironment using the database generated in Arizona (NHEXAS-AZ). A four-stage probability sampling design was used for sample selection. Exposures to pesticides were estimated using the indirect method of exposure calculation by combining measured concentrations of the two pesticides in multiple media with questionnaire information such as time subjects spent indoors, dietary and non-dietary items they consumed, and areas they touched. Most distributions of in-residence exposure to chlorpyrifos and diazinon were log-normal or nearly log-normal. Exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon vary by pesticide and route as well as by various demographic characteristics of the subjects. Comparisons of exposure to pesticides were investigated among subgroups of demographic categories, including gender, age, minority status, education, family income, household dwelling type, year the dwelling was built, pesticide use, and carpeted areas within dwellings. Residents with large carpeted areas within their dwellings have higher exposures to both pesticides for all routes than those in less carpet-covered areas. Depending on the route, several other determinants of exposure to pesticides were identified, but a clear pattern could not be established regarding the exposure differences between several subpopulation groups.

  4. THE PERIODIC CAPACITATED ARC ROUTING PROBLEM LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL,METAHEURISTIC AND LOWER BOUNDS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng CHU; Nacima LABADI; Christian PRINS

    2004-01-01

    The Periodic Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (PCARP) generalizes the well known NP-hard Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (CARP) by extending the single period to multi-period horizon.The Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (CARP) is defined on an undirected network in which a fleet of identical vehicles is based at a depot node. A subset of edges, called tasks, must be serviced by a vehicle. The CARP consists of determining a set of feasible vehicle trips that minimizes the total cost of traversed edges. The PCARP involves the assignment of tasks to periods and the determination of vehicles trips in each period, to minimize the total cost on the whole horizon. This new problem arises in various real life applications such as waste collection, mail delivery, etc. In this paper, a new linear programming model and preliminary lower bounds based on graph transformation are proposed. A meta-heuristic approach - Scatter Search (SS) is developed for the PCARP and evaluated on a large variety of instances.

  5. 2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azad Wan Hazdy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

  6. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  7. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis in econom......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

  8. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Hyuk-jae; Lee, Taikjin

    2014-03-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.

  9. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2016-07-20

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in terms of attribute substitution in heuristic use (Kahneman & Frederick, 2005). In this framework, it is predicted that people will rely on heuristic or knowledge-based inference depending on the subjective difficulty of the inference task. We conducted competitive tests of binary choice inference models representing simple heuristics (fluency and familiarity heuristics) and knowledge-based inference models. We found that a simple heuristic model (especially a familiarity heuristic model) explained inference patterns for subjectively difficult inference tasks, and that a knowledge-based inference model explained subjectively easy inference tasks. These results were consistent with the predictions of the attribute substitution framework. Issues on usage of simple heuristics and psychological processes are discussed.

  10. Routing in opportunistic networks

    CERN Document Server

    Dhurandher, Sanjay; Anpalagan, Alagan; Vasilakos, Athanasios

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to selected topics, both ongoing and emerging, in routing in OppNets. The book is edited by worldwide technical leaders, prolific researchers and outstanding academics, Dr. Isaac Woungang and co-editors, Dr. Sanjay Kumar Dhurandher, Prof. Alagan Anpalagan and Prof. Athanasios Vasilakos. Consisting of contributions from well known and high profile researchers and scientists in their respective specialties, the main topics that are covered in this book include mobility and routing, social-aware routing, context-based routing, energy-aware routing, incentive-aware routing, stochastic routing, modeling of intermittent connectivity, in both infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Key Features: Discusses existing and emerging techniques for routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Provides a unified covering of otherwise disperse selected topics on routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets.  Includes a set of PowerPoint slides and g...

  11. Integrating routing decisions in public transportation problems

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Marie E

    2014-01-01

    This book treats three planning problems arising in public railway transportation planning: line planning, timetabling, and delay management, with the objective to minimize passengers’ travel time. While many optimization approaches simplify these problems by assuming that passengers’ route choice is independent of the solution, this book focuses on models which take into account that passengers will adapt their travel route to the implemented planning solution. That is, a planning solution and passengers’ routes are determined and evaluated simultaneously. This work is technically deep, with insightful findings regarding complexity and algorithmic approaches to public transportation problems with integrated passenger routing. It is intended for researchers in the fields of mathematics, computer science, or operations research, working in the field of public transportation from an optimization standpoint. It is also ideal for students who want to gain intuition and experience in doing complexity proofs ...

  12. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  13. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-13

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  14. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARSUK R. V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

  15. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal

  16. A LATENT TRAIT MODEL FOR DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE DATA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HOIJTINK, H

    1990-01-01

    The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The

  17. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  18. Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Claessens, L.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The interest in landscape evolution models (LEMs) that simulate multiple landscape processes is growing. However, modelling multiple processes constitutes a new starting point for which some aspects of the set up of LEMs must be re-evaluated. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the practic

  19. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  20. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit

  1. A multidimensional discontinuous Galerkin modeling framework for overland flow and channel routing

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Dustin W.; Kubatko, Ethan J.; Conroy, Colton J.; Yaufman, Mariah; Wood, Dylan

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we present the development and application of a new multidimensional, unstructured-mesh model for simulating coupled overland/open-channel flows in the kinematic wave approximation regime. The modeling approach makes use of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element spatial discretizations of variable polynomial degree p, paired with explicit Runge-Kutta time steppers, and is supported by advancements made to an automatic mesh generation tool, ADMESH +, that is used to construct constrained triangulations for channel routing. The developed modeling framework is applied to a set of four test cases, where numerical results are found to compare well with known analytic solutions, experimental data and results from another well-established (structured, finite difference) model within the area of application. The numerical results obtained demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the developed modeling framework and highlight the potential benefits of using p (polynomial) refinement for hydrological simulations.

  2. Analysis of dynamic wave model for flood routing in natural rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza BARATI

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters of the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis (GMPSA. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.

  3. An integrated location inventory routing model in supply chain network designing under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojat Angazi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study an integrated model is proposed for the location inventory routing problem under uncertainty. This problem involves determining the location of distribution centers (DCs in a three echelon supply chain. The DCs receive orders from the customer and according to a continuous review inventory replenishment policy place orders to the supplier. The products are directly shipped from the supplier to the DCs. The vehicles start from the DCs to fulfill the demands of the customers. Determining the routing of the vehicles is one of the decisions involved in this problem. The demands of customers are stochastically distributed and the capacity of DCs are limited. If one of the DCs undergo a disruption and is unable to fulfill the demands of the customers, shortage may occur. Moreover in the proposed model the shortage is considered as partial backlogging. This means that if shortage occurs, some of the orders result in lost sales and other orders are fulfilled in the next period. In order to optimally solve the proposed model a nonlinear integer programming (INLP model is developed. However, since the problem is NP-hard, the mathematical formulation cannot be efficiently solved for large sized instances of the problem. Therefore an outer approximation method is developed to solve the problem more efficiently. The computational results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

  4. Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Using Channel Flow Routing Model with Updating by Particle Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, R.; Chikamori, H.; Nagai, A.

    2008-12-01

    A real-time flood forecasting system using channel flow routing model was developed for runoff forecasting at water gauged and ungaged points along river channels. The system is based on a flood runoff model composed of upstream part models, tributary part models and downstream part models. The upstream part models and tributary part models are lumped rainfall-runoff models, and the downstream part models consist of a lumped rainfall-runoff model for hillslopes adjacent to a river channel and a kinematic flow routing model for a river channel. The flow forecast of this model is updated by Particle filtering of the downstream part model as well as by the extended Kalman filtering of the upstream part model and the tributary part models. The Particle filtering is a simple and powerful updating algorithm for non-linear and non-gaussian system, so that it can be easily applied to the downstream part model without complicated linearization. The presented flood runoff model has an advantage in simlecity of updating procedure to the grid-based distributed models, which is because of less number of state variables. This system was applied to the Gono-kawa River Basin in Japan, and flood forecasting accuracy of the system with both Particle filtering and extended Kalman filtering and that of the system with only extended Kalman filtering were compared. In this study, water gauging stations in the objective basin were divided into two types of stations, that is, reference stations and verification stations. Reference stations ware regarded as ordinary water gauging stations and observed data at these stations are used for calibration and updating of the model. Verification stations ware considered as ungaged or arbitrary points and observed data at these stations are used not for calibration nor updating but for only evaluation of forecasting accuracy. The result confirms that Particle filtering of the downstream part model improves forecasting accuracy of runoff at

  5. Establishment of a leptospirosis model in guinea pigs using an epicutaneous inoculations route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Leptospires are presumed to enter their host via small abrasions or breaches of the skin. The intraperitoneal route, although commonly used in guinea pig and hamster models of leptospirosis, does not reflect conditions encountered during natural infection. The aim of this study is to develop a novel leptospirosis guinea pig model through epicutaneous route and to elucidate the pathogenesis of leptospirosis in experimental guinea pigs by comparing the data from other studies using different infection routes. Methods The guinea pigs were inoculated with 5 × 108 Leptospira interrogans strain Lai onto either shaved-only or abraded skin. The guinea pigs were sacrificed at 2, 8, 24, 48, 72, 96 and 144 h post-infection (p.i. followed by harvest of the lungs, liver, kidneys, spleen, and the skin around the inoculated sites for further examinations. Hematoxylin and eosin (HE staining and electron microscopy were used to detect the pathologic changes. Real time PCR and immunohistochemistry staining were performed to detect dynamic distribution of leptospires in blood and tissues, respectively. Results In the guinea pigs with abraded skin inoculations, leptospires were detected in blood as early as 2 h post infection (p.i. and then disseminated to the liver, lungs and kidneys of almost all animals within 96 h p.i.. Leptospires were also detected engulfed in the swelling vascular endothelial cells and were frequently aggregated around the capillaries in the dermis and subcutaneous tissue under the inoculated site. For the guinea pigs with abraded skin inoculations, hemorrhage at the dermis around the inoculated site was found before the appearance of internal organs hemorrhage, severe lesions such as hemorrhages in the lungs, nephritis, jaundice, haematuria were also observed, and two of seven guinea pigs died at 144 h p.i. while no lesions and leptospires were detected in the shaved-only guinea pigs using the same dose of strain Lai

  6. A mathematical model for the municipal solid waste location-routing problem with intermediate transfer stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Asefi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Municipal solid waste management is one of the challenging issues in mega cities due to various interrelated factors such as operational costs and environmental concerns. Cost as one of the most significant constraints of municipal solid waste management can be effectively economized by efficient planning approaches. Considering diverse waste types in an integrated municipal solid waste system, a mathematical model of the location-routing problem is formulated and solved in this study in order to minimize the total cost of transportation and facility establishment.

  7. MODELING AND SOLVING A RICH VEHICLE ROUTING PROBLEM FOR THE DELIVERY OF GOODS IN URBAN AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ferreira de Souza Neto

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This work addresses a vehicle routing problem that aims at representing delivery operations of large volumes of products in dense urban areas. Inspired by a case study in a drinks producer and distributor, we propose a mathematical programming model and solution approaches that take into account costs with own and chartered vehicles, multiple deliverymen, time windows in customers, compatibility of vehicles and customers, time limitations for the circulation of large vehicles in city centers and multiple daily trips. Results with instances based on real data provided by the company highlight the potential of applicability of some of the proposed methods.

  8. Model choice considerations and information integration using analytical hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC; Ross, Timothy J. [UNM

    2010-10-15

    Using the theory of information-gap for decision-making under severe uncertainty, it has been shown that model output compared to experimental data contains irrevocable trade-offs between fidelity-to-data, robustness-to-uncertainty and confidence-in-prediction. We illustrate a strategy for information integration by gathering and aggregating all available data, knowledge, theory, experience, similar applications. Such integration of information becomes important when the physics is difficult to model, when observational data are sparse or difficult to measure, or both. To aggregate the available information, we take an inference perspective. Models are not rejected, nor wasted, but can be integrated into a final result. We show an example of information integration using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating theory, simulation output and experimental data. We used expert elicitation to determine weights for two models and two experimental data sets, by forming pair-wise comparisons between model output and experimental data. In this way we transform epistemic and/or statistical strength from one field of study into another branch of physical application. The price to pay for utilizing all available knowledge is that inferences drawn for the integrated information must be accounted for and the costs can be considerable. Focusing on inferences and inference uncertainty (IU) is one way to understand complex information.

  9. Determination of Scheduled Travel Time for a Fixed Transit Route Based on Multistate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shukai Chen; Daniel Jian Sun; and Rui Xue

    2016-01-01

    In order to provide the guideline for bus drivers to adjust speed to minimize scheduled deviation, the method for setting bus scheduled travel time is proposed. Firstly, multistate model is introduced to fit historical travel time data and identify different service states. Based on the calibrated travel time distribution parameters, an optimization model is proposed, followed by a Monte Carlo ( MC) simulation based genetic algorithm ( GA) procedure to obtain the optimal scheduled time. A case study from a fixed bus route from Shenzhen is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effects of parameters setting on optimal slack time for each segment. The results show that multistate model fits travel time under peak hours better than Lognormal distribution, and the length of scheduled travel time basically reflects travel time reliability.

  10. Integrating economic and psychological insights in binary choice models with social interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ostasiewicz, K; Magnuszewski, P; Radosz, A; Sendzimir, J; Tyc, M H; Goliczewski, Piotr; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Sendzimir, Jan; Tyc, Michal H.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximation is developed. It is shown that within a mean-field approach both the utility function and the impact function models are equivalent to threshold models. The interplay between heterogeneity and randomness in model formulation is discussed. A general framework is applied in a number of examples leading to some well-known models but also showing the possibility of more complex dynamics related to multiple equilibria. Our synthesis can provide a basis for many practical applications extending the scope of binary choice models.

  11. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  12. A model for attentional information routing through coherence predicts biased competition and multistable perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnack, Daniel; Ernst, Udo Alexander; Pawelzik, Klaus Richard

    2015-09-01

    Selective attention allows to focus on relevant information and to ignore distracting features of a visual scene. These principles of information processing are reflected in response properties of neurons in visual area V4: if a neuron is presented with two stimuli in its receptive field, and one is attended, it responds as if the nonattended stimulus was absent (biased competition). In addition, when the luminance of the two stimuli is temporally and independently varied, local field potentials are correlated with the modulation of the attended stimulus and not, or much less, correlated with the nonattended stimulus (information routing). To explain these results in one coherent framework, we present a two-layer spiking cortical network model with distance-dependent lateral connectivity and converging feed-forward connections. With oscillations arising inherently from the network structure, our model reproduces both experimental observations. Hereby, lateral interactions and shifts of relative phases between sending and receiving layers (communication through coherence) are identified as the main mechanisms underlying both biased competition as well as selective routing. Exploring the parameter space, we show that the effects are robust and prevalent over a broad range of parameters. In addition, we identify the strength of lateral inhibition in the first model layer as crucial for determining the working regime of the system: increasing lateral inhibition allows a transition from a network configuration with mixed representations to one with bistable representations of the competing stimuli. The latter is discussed as a possible neural correlate of multistable perception phenomena such as binocular rivalry.

  13. Do Dual-Route Models Accurately Predict Reading and Spelling Performance in Individuals with Acquired Alexia and Agraphia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Henry, Maya L.; Teague, Sommer L.; Carnahan, Susan D.; Beeson, Pélagie M.

    2007-01-01

    Coltheart and colleagues (Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001; Castles, Bates, & Coltheart, 2006) have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing. PMID:17482218

  14. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info

  15. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  16. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states: the case of the EQ-5D.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, E.A.; Oppe, M.; Scalone, L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  17. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states : The case of the EQ-5D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, Elly A; Oppe, Mark; Scalone, Luciana; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  18. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

  19. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  20. A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  1. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing

  2. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  3. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  4. Modeling anger and aggressive driving behavior in a dynamic choice-latent variable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable.

  5. Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Akito Matsumoto; Charles Engel

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some goods prices are set without full information of the state. We show that temporarily sticky nominal goods prices can have large effects on equity portfolios. Home and foreign portfolios are not identical in equilibrium. In response to technology shocks, sticky prices generate a negative correlation between labor income and ...

  6. The effects of Georgia's Choice curricular reform model on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phemister, Art W.

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice reading curriculum on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test from 2002 to 2008. In assessing the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model this causal comparative study examined the 105 elementary schools that implemented Georgia's Choice and 105 randomly selected elementary schools that did not elect to use Georgia's Choice. The Georgia's Choice reading program used intensified instruction in an effort to increase reading levels for all students. The study used a non-equivalent control group with a pretest and posttest design to determine the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model. Findings indicated that third grade students in Non-Georgia's Choice schools outscored third grade students in Georgia's Choice schools across the span of the study.

  7. On-line updating of a distributed flow routing model - River Vistula case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamuz, Emilia; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents an application of methods of on-line updating in the River Vistula flow forecasting system. All flow-routing codes make simplifying assumptions and consider only a reduced set of the processes known to occur during a flood. Hence, all models are subject to a degree of structural error that is typically compensated for by calibration of the friction parameters. Calibrated parameter values are not, therefore, physically realistic, as in estimating them we also make allowance for a number of distinctly non-physical effects, such as model structural error and any energy losses or flow processes which occur at sub-grid scales. Calibrated model parameters are therefore area-effective, scale-dependent values which are not drawn from the same underlying statistical distribution as the equivalent at-a-point parameter of the same name. The aim of this paper is the derivation of real-time updated, on-line flow forecasts at certain strategic locations along the river, over a specified time horizon into the future, based on information on the behaviour of the flood wave upstream and available on-line measurements at a site. Depending on the length of the river reach and the slope of the river bed, a realistic forecast lead time, obtained in this manner, may range from hours to days. The information upstream can include observations of river levels and/or rainfall measurements. The proposed forecasting system will integrate distributed modelling, acting as a spatial interpolator with lumped parameter Stochastic Transfer Function models. Daily stage data from gauging stations are typically available at sites 10-60 km apart and test only the average routing performance of hydraulic models and not their ability to produce spatial predictions. Application of a distributed flow routing model makes it possible to interpolate forecasts both in time and space. This work was partly supported by the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach

  8. Reverse flood routing with the inverted Muskingum storage routing scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koussis, A. D.; Mazi, K.; Lykoudis, S.; Argyriou, A.

    2010-09-01

    Motivation On occasion, flood related questions are posed in the reverse from the conventional sense, e.g.: Which inflow created the flow observed at cross-section X, or the flood profile observed along reach Y? This is a signal identification type problem (hydrologic forensics). A related question concerns the operation of a reservoir, via optimal outflow control, so as to minimise downstream flood damage. Solution of the aforementioned problems requires routing of floods in the upstream direction. This is an inverse problem, and as such it is not well posed. In routing against the wave propagation, small errors in the flow measurements, or rounding errors, are amplified leading to instability, i.e., to spurious, large changes in the response (inflow hydrograph). Therefore, for the reverse solution to be stable it must be constrained by a smoothness condition; this however does not ensure its uniqueness. Storage routing models as approximate diffusion wave models By appropriate choice of their parameter values, storage routing models approximate closely diffusion-wave (DW) behaviour, if dominant flood propagation mode is that of kinematic waves (KW), which is very often true. We solve the flood signal identification problem by reversing the Muskingum routing scheme. The Muskingum routing scheme derives from a first-order accurate FD discretisation of the KW equation yet yields second-order accurate DW solutions by matching the numerical diffusion coefficient of that KW equation solution scheme to the DW equation’s hydraulic diffusion coefficient. Formulation and testing of a reverse routing scheme based on Muskingum routing Theoretical analysis of the reversed Muskingum routing scheme yields nominal grid design rules; however, we study optimal grid design mainly by numerical experimentation. First, we reverse an exact outflow hydrograph (a single-wave solution of the convection-diffusion equation), and then demonstrate the scheme’s ability to reverse

  9. Analysis regarding the transport network models. Case study on finding the optimal transport route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stîngă, V.-G.

    2017-08-01

    Transport networks are studied most of the time from a graph theory perspective, mostly studied in a static way, in order to emphasize their characteristics like: topology, morphology, costs, traffic flows etc. There are many methods used to describe these characteristics at local and global level. Usually when analysing the transport network models, the aim is to achieve minimum capacity transit or minimum cost of operating or investment. Throughout this paper we will get an insight into the many models of the transport network that were presented over the years and we will try to make a short analysis regarding the most important ones. We will make a case study on finding the optimal route by using one of the models presented within this paper.

  10. Model of Optimal Cargo Transport Structure by Full Container Ship on Predefined Sailing Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serđo Kos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model for solving theproblem of defining optimal cargo transport structure, occurringwhen, on a predefined sailing route, adequate number ofcontainers of various types, masses and sizes, possibly includingRO!RO cargo, is to be selected, i.e., a "container lot" is to beestablished in loading ports with the aim of gaining maximumship profit and, at the same time, of exploiting useful load andtransport capacity of container ship as much as possible. Theimplementation of the proposed model enables considerableincrease in the efficiency of container ship operations. Themodel was tested using a numerical example with real data.The applied post-optimal analysis examines the influence ofchange in some values of the mathematical model on the resultingoptimal program.

  11. Modeling issues & choices in the data mining optimization ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Keet, CM

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available investigating aspects such as DMOP object prop- erties, the effects of ObjectInverseOf vs. InverseObjectProperties, and the deductions with respect to the DM algorithms branch and metamodeling. DMOP (version 5.2) has already been applied successfully to the meta...TransformationTask). These classes are further articulated in subclasses representing more fine-grained tasks for each category. An Induction- Task consumes data and produces hypotheses. It can be either a ModelingTask or a PatternDiscoveryTask, based on whether it generates...

  12. Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.

  13. Novel Congestion-Free Alternate Routing Path Scheme using Stackelberg Game Theory Model in Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chitra

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Recently, wireless network technologies were designed for most of the applications. Congestion raised in the wireless network degrades the performance and reduces the throughput. Congestion-free network is quit essen- tial in the transport layer to prevent performance degradation in a wireless network. Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics and applied sciences that used in wireless network, political science, biology, computer science, philosophy and economics. e great challenges of wireless network are their congestion by various factors. E ective congestion-free alternate path routing is pretty essential to increase network performance. Stackelberg game theory model is currently employed as an e ective tool to design and formulate conges- tion issues in wireless networks. is work uses a Stackelberg game to design alternate path model to avoid congestion. In this game, leaders and followers are selected to select an alternate routing path. e correlated equilibrium is used in Stackelberg game for making better decision between non-cooperation and cooperation. Congestion was continuously monitored to increase the throughput in the network. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme could extensively improve the network performance by reducing congestion with the help of Stackelberg game and thereby enhance throughput.

  14. Fitting a Thurstonian IRT model to forced-choice data using Mplus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Anna; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2012-12-01

    To counter response distortions associated with the use of rating scales (a.k.a. Likert scales), items can be presented in a comparative fashion, so that respondents are asked to rank the items within blocks (forced-choice format). However, classical scoring procedures for these forced-choice designs lead to ipsative data, which presents psychometric challenges that are well described in the literature. Recently, Brown and Maydeu-Olivares (Educational and Psychological Measurement 71: 460-502, 2011a) introduced a model based on Thurstone's law of comparative judgment, which overcomes the problems of ipsative data. Here, we provide a step-by-step tutorial for coding forced-choice responses, specifying a Thurstonian item response theory model that is appropriate for the design used, assessing the model's fit, and scoring individuals on psychological attributes. Estimation and scoring is performed using Mplus, and a very straightforward Excel macro is provided that writes full Mplus input files for any forced-choice design. Armed with these tools, using a forced-choice design is now as easy as using ratings.

  15. Approximate group context tree: applications to dynamic programming and dynamic choice models

    CERN Document Server

    Belloni, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...

  16. Understanding the Effect of Baseline Modeling Implementation Choices on Analysis of Demand Response Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    University of California, Berkeley; Addy, Nathan; Kiliccote, Sila; Mathieu, Johanna; Callaway, Duncan S.

    2012-06-13

    Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.

  17. Structural Model of RNA Polymerase II Elongation Complex with Complete Transcription Bubble Reveals NTP Entry Routes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The RNA polymerase II (Pol II is a eukaryotic enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of the messenger RNA using a DNA template. Despite numerous biochemical and biophysical studies, it remains elusive whether the "secondary channel" is the only route for NTP to reach the active site of the enzyme or if the "main channel" could be an alternative. On this regard, crystallographic structures of Pol II have been extremely useful to understand the structural basis of transcription, however, the conformation of the unpaired non-template DNA part of the full transcription bubble (TB is still unknown. Since diffusion routes of the nucleoside triphosphate (NTP substrate through the main channel might overlap with the TB region, gaining structural information of the full TB is critical for a complete understanding of Pol II transcription process. In this study, we have built a structural model of Pol II with a complete transcription bubble based on multiple sources of existing structural data and used Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations together with structural analysis to shed light on NTP entry pathways. Interestingly, we found that although both channels have enough space to allow NTP loading, the percentage of MD conformations containing enough space for NTP loading through the secondary channel is twice higher than that of the main channel. Further energetic study based on MD simulations with NTP loaded in the channels has revealed that the diffusion of the NTP through the main channel is greatly disfavored by electrostatic repulsion between the NTP and the highly negatively charged backbones of nucleotides in the non-template DNA strand. Taken together, our results suggest that the secondary channel is the major route for NTP entry during Pol II transcription.

  18. Structural Model of RNA Polymerase II Elongation Complex with Complete Transcription Bubble Reveals NTP Entry Routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lu; Silva, Daniel-Adriano; Pardo-Avila, Fátima; Wang, Dong; Huang, Xuhui

    2015-07-01

    The RNA polymerase II (Pol II) is a eukaryotic enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of the messenger RNA using a DNA template. Despite numerous biochemical and biophysical studies, it remains elusive whether the "secondary channel" is the only route for NTP to reach the active site of the enzyme or if the "main channel" could be an alternative. On this regard, crystallographic structures of Pol II have been extremely useful to understand the structural basis of transcription, however, the conformation of the unpaired non-template DNA part of the full transcription bubble (TB) is still unknown. Since diffusion routes of the nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) substrate through the main channel might overlap with the TB region, gaining structural information of the full TB is critical for a complete understanding of Pol II transcription process. In this study, we have built a structural model of Pol II with a complete transcription bubble based on multiple sources of existing structural data and used Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations together with structural analysis to shed light on NTP entry pathways. Interestingly, we found that although both channels have enough space to allow NTP loading, the percentage of MD conformations containing enough space for NTP loading through the secondary channel is twice higher than that of the main channel. Further energetic study based on MD simulations with NTP loaded in the channels has revealed that the diffusion of the NTP through the main channel is greatly disfavored by electrostatic repulsion between the NTP and the highly negatively charged backbones of nucleotides in the non-template DNA strand. Taken together, our results suggest that the secondary channel is the major route for NTP entry during Pol II transcription.

  19. Species sensitivity distribution for chlorpyrifos to aquatic organisms: Model choice and sample size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jinsong; Chen, Boyu

    2016-03-01

    Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is a widely used model that extrapolates the ecological risk to ecosystem levels from the ecotoxicity of a chemical to individual organisms. However, model choice and sample size significantly affect the development of the SSD model and the estimation of hazardous concentrations at the 5th centile (HC5). To interpret their effects, the SSD model for chlorpyrifos, a widely used organophosphate pesticide, to aquatic organisms is presented with emphases on model choice and sample size. Three subsets of median effective concentration (EC50) with different sample sizes were obtained from ECOTOX and used to build SSD models based on parametric distribution (normal, logistic, and triangle distribution) and nonparametric bootstrap. The SSD models based on the triangle distribution are superior to the normal and logistic distributions according to several goodness-of-fit techniques. Among all parametric SSD models, the one with the largest sample size based on the triangle distribution gives the most strict HC5 with 0.141μmolL(-1). The HC5 derived from the nonparametric bootstrap is 0.159μmol L(-1). The minimum sample size required to build a stable SSD model is 11 based on parametric distribution and 23 based on nonparametric bootstrap. The study suggests that model choice and sample size are important sources of uncertainty for application of the SSD model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. An integrated model of choices and response times in absolute identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Scott D; Marley, A A J; Donkin, Christopher; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-04-01

    Recent theoretical developments in the field of absolute identification have stressed differences between relative and absolute processes, that is, whether stimulus magnitudes are judged relative to a shorter term context provided by recently presented stimuli or a longer term context provided by the entire set of stimuli. The authors developed a model (SAMBA: selective attention, mapping, and ballistic accumulation) that integrates shorter and longer term memory processes and accounts for both the choices made and the associated response time distributions, including sequential effects in each. The model's predictions arise as a consequence of its architecture and require estimation of only a few parameters with values that are consistent across numerous data sets. The authors show that SAMBA provides a quantitative account of benchmark choice phenomena in classical absolute identification experiments and in contemporary data involving both choice and response time.

  1. Comparison of MANET Routing Protocols in Different Traffic and Mobility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Baraković

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Routing protocol election in MANET (Mobile Ad Hoc Network is a great challenge, because of its frequent topology changes and routing overhead. This paper compares performances of three routing protocols: Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV, Ad Hoc Ondemand Distance Vector (AODV and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR, based on results analysis obtained using simulations with different load and mobility scenarios performed with Network Simulator version 2 (NS-2. In low load and low mobility scenarios routing protocols perform in a similar manner. However, with mobility and load increasing DSR outperforms AODV and DSDV protocols.

  2. Nonlinear Calibration Model Choice between the Four and Five Parameter Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, William N.; Fong, Youyi; Yu, Xuesong; Defawe, Olivier; Frahm, Nicole; De Rosa, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Both the four-parameter logistic (4PL) and the five-parameter logistic (5PL) models are widely used in nonlinear calibration. In this paper, we study the choice between 5PL and 4PL both by the accuracy and precision of the estimated concentrations and by the power to detect an association between a binary disease outcome and the estimated concentrations. Our results show that when the true curve is symmetric around its inflection point, the efficiency loss from using 5PL is negligible under the prevalent experimental design. When the true curve is asymmetric, 4PL may sometimes offer better performance due to bias-variance trade-off. We provide a practical guideline for choosing between 5PL and 4PL and illustrate its application with a real dataset from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network laboratory. PMID:24918306

  3. Modelling and Initial Validation of the DYMO Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espensen, Kristian Asbjørn Leth; Kjeldsen, Mads Keblov; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2008-01-01

    A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an infrastructureless network established by a set of mobile devices using wireless communication. The Dynamic MANET On-demand (DYMO) protocol is a routing protocol for multi-hop communication in MANETs currently under development by the Internet Engineering Task...... Force (IETF). This paper presents a Coloured Petri Net (CPN) model of the mandatory parts of the DYMO protocol, and shows how scenario-based state space exploration has been used to validate key properties of the protocol. Our CPN modelling and verification work has spanned two revisions of the DYMO...... protocol specification and have had direct impact on the most recent version of the protocol specification....

  4. An alternative approach for choice models in transportation: Use of possibility theory for comparison of utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dell’orco Mauro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of human choice mechanism has been a topic of intense discussion in the transportation community for many years. The framework of modeling has been rooted in probability theory in which the analyst’s uncertainty about the integrity of the model is expressed in probability. In most choice situations, the decision-maker (traveler also experiences uncertainty because of the lack of complete information on the choices. In the traditional modeling framework, the uncertainty of the analyst and that of the decision-maker are both embedded in the same random term and not clearly separated. While the analyst's uncertainty may be represented by probability due to the statistical nature of events, that of the decision maker, however, is not always subjected to randomness; rather, it is the perceptive uncertainty. This paper proposes a modeling framework that attempts to account for the decision maker’s uncertainty by possibility theory and then the analyst's uncertainty by probability theory. The possibility to probability transformation is performed using the principle of uncertainty invariance. The proposed approach accounts for the quality of information on the changes in choice probability. The paper discusses the thought process, mathematics of possibility theory and probability transformation, and examples.

  5. INTERLINE 5.0 -- An expanded railroad routing model: Program description, methodology, and revised user`s manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Clarke, D.B.; Jacobi, J.M. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Transportation Center

    1993-03-01

    A rail routine model, INTERLINE, has been developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to investigate potential routes for transporting radioactive materials. In Version 5.0, the INTERLINE routing algorithms have been enhanced to include the ability to predict alternative routes, barge routes, and population statistics for any route. The INTERLINE railroad network is essentially a computerized rail atlas describing the US railroad system. All rail lines, with the exception of industrial spurs, are included in the network. Inland waterways and deep water routes along with their interchange points with the US railroadsystem are also included. The network contains over 15,000 rail and barge segments (links) and over 13,000 stations, interchange points, ports, and other locations (nodes). The INTERLINE model has been converted to operate on an IBM-compatible personal computer. At least a 286 computer with a hard disk containing approximately 6 MB of free space is recommended. Enhanced program performance will be obtained by using arandom-access memory drive on a 386 or 486 computer.

  6. INTERLINE 5. 0 -- An expanded railroad routing model: Program description, methodology, and revised user's manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Clarke, D.B.; Jacobi, J.M. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Transportation Center)

    1993-03-01

    A rail routine model, INTERLINE, has been developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to investigate potential routes for transporting radioactive materials. In Version 5.0, the INTERLINE routing algorithms have been enhanced to include the ability to predict alternative routes, barge routes, and population statistics for any route. The INTERLINE railroad network is essentially a computerized rail atlas describing the US railroad system. All rail lines, with the exception of industrial spurs, are included in the network. Inland waterways and deep water routes along with their interchange points with the US railroadsystem are also included. The network contains over 15,000 rail and barge segments (links) and over 13,000 stations, interchange points, ports, and other locations (nodes). The INTERLINE model has been converted to operate on an IBM-compatible personal computer. At least a 286 computer with a hard disk containing approximately 6 MB of free space is recommended. Enhanced program performance will be obtained by using arandom-access memory drive on a 386 or 486 computer.

  7. Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Bojia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Flow corridors are a new class of trajectory-based airspace which derives from the next generation air transportation system concept of operations. Reducing the airspace complexity and increasing the capacity are the main purposes of the en-route corridor. This paper analyzes the collision risk-capacity tradeoff using a combined discrete–continuous simulation method. A basic two-dimensional en-route flow corridor with performance rules is designed as the operational environment. A second-order system is established by combining the point mass model and the proportional derivative controller together to simulate the self-separation operations of the aircrafts in the corridor and the operation performance parameters from the User Manual for the Base of Aircraft Data are used in this research in order to improve the reliability. Simulation results indicate that the aircrafts can self-separate from each other efficiently by adjusting their velocities, and rationally setting the values of some variables can improve the rate and stability of the corridor with low risks of loss of separation.

  8. Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Pachur, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test-retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.

  9. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  10. A Regime Switching Model of Schooling Choice as a Job Search Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Hyun Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a regime switching model of schooling choice as a job search process. We adopt a two-state Markov process and the derived coupled Bellman equations are solved by seeking the root of an auxiliary algebraic equation. Some numerical examples are also considered.

  11. Cognitive Diagnostic Models for Tests with Multiple-Choice and Constructed-Response Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Chen, Chun-Hua; Yang, Chih-Wei; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, teachers evaluate students' abilities via their total test scores. Recently, cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have begun to provide information about the presence or absence of students' skills or misconceptions. Nevertheless, CDMs are typically applied to tests with multiple-choice (MC) items, which provide less diagnostic…

  12. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as

  13. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research : background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  14. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  15. Longitudinal Test of the Social Cognitive Model of Choice in Engineering Students at Historically Black Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Gloster, Clay S.; Wilkins, Gregory

    2010-01-01

    We tested the social cognitive model of choice (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) using a longitudinal design. Participants were 116 students taking beginning engineering courses at two historically Black universities. They completed measures of self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, goals, and environmental supports and barriers near the end…

  16. The Forced Choice Dilemma: A Model Incorporating Idiocentric/Allocentric Cultural Orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup; McCormick, John; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a new model of the forced choice dilemma (i.e., the belief held by some intellectually gifted students that they must choose between academic achievement and peer acceptance) that incorporates individual-level cultural orientation variables (i.e., vertical allocentrism and vertical idiocentrism). A survey that had…

  17. Generalized behavioral framework for choice models of social influence: Behavioral and data concerns in travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maness, M.; Cirillo, C.; Dugundji, E.R.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past two decades, transportation has begun a shift from an individual focus to a social focus. Accordingly, discrete choice models have begun to integrate social context into its framework. Social influence, the process of having one’s behavior be affected by others, has been one approach t

  18. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...

  19. Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

  20. On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is formu

  1. Accounting for crop rotations in acreage choice modeling: a tractable modeling framework

    OpenAIRE

    Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Crop rotation effects and constraints are major determinants of farmers’ crop choices. Crop rotations are also keystone elements of most environmentally friendly cropping systems. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it proposes simple tools for investigating optimal dynamic crop acreage choices accounting for crop rotation effects and constraints in an uncertain context. Second, it illustrates the impacts of crop rotation effects and constraints on farmers’ acreage choices through simple...

  2. Accounting for Long Term Sediment Storage in a Watershed Scale Numerical Model for Suspended Sediment Routing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, J. J.; Pizzuto, J. E.; Skalak, K.; Karwan, D. L.; Benthem, A.; Ackerman, T. R.

    2015-12-01

    Quantifying the delivery of suspended sediment from upland sources to downstream receiving waters is important for watershed management, but current routing models fail to accurately represent lag times in delivery resulting from sediment storage. In this study, we route suspended sediment tagged by a characteristic tracer using a 1-dimensional model that implicitly includes storage and remobilization processes and timescales. From an input location where tagged sediment is added, the model advects suspended sediment downstream at the velocity of the stream (adjusted for the intermittency of transport events). Deposition rates are specified by the fraction of the suspended load stored per kilometer of downstream transport (presumably available from a sediment budget). Tagged sediment leaving storage is evaluated from a convolution equation based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of sediment storage waiting times; this approach avoids the difficulty of accurately representing complex processes of sediment remobilization from floodplain and other deposits. To illustrate the role of storage on sediment delivery, we compare exponential and bounded power-law waiting time pdfs with identical means of 94 years. In both cases, the median travel time for sediment to reach the depocenter in fluvial systems less than 40km long is governed by in-channel transport and is unaffected by sediment storage. As the channel length increases, however, the median sediment travel time reflects storage rather than in-channel transport; travel times do not vary significantly between the two different waiting time functions. At distances of 50, 100, and 200 km, the median travel time for suspended sediment is 36, 136, and 325 years, orders of magnitude slower than travel times associated with in-channel transport. These computations demonstrate that storage can be neglected for short rivers, but for longer systems, storage controls the delivery of suspended sediment.

  3. Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Satoru; Furuta, Kazuo; Nakata, Keiichi; Kanno, Taro; Aoyama, Hisae; Brown, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes. This research focuses on an experimental study to gain a better understanding of controllers' cognitive processes in air traffic control. We conducted ethnographic observations and then analysed the data to develop a model of controllers' cognitive process. This analysis revealed that strategic routines are applicable to decision making.

  4. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling-Smithies model of product choice

    CERN Document Server

    Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.

  5. Mathematical model for flood routing in Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuo-tao XIE

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main stream of the Yangtze River, Dongting Lake, and the river network in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River constitute a complex water system. This paper develops a one-dimensional (1-D mathematical model for flood routing in the river network of the Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake using the explicit finite volume method. Based on observed data during the flood periods in 1996 and 1998, the model was calibrated and validated, and the results show that the model is effective and has high accuracy. In addition, the one-dimensional mathematical model for the river network and the horizontal two-dimensional (2-D mathematical model for the Jingjiang flood diversion area were coupled to simulate the flood process in the Jingjiang River, Dongting Lake, and the Jingjiang flood diversion area. The calculated results of the coupled model are consistent with the practical processes. Meanwhile, the results show that the flood diversion has significant effects on the decrease of the peak water level at the Shashi and Chenjiawan hydrological stations near the flood diversion gates, and the effect is more obvious in the downstream than in the upstream.

  6. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Young Kwon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods: A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110 in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Results: Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010 and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031. Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003 and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003. Conclusion: Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  7. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  8. Global Flood Response Using Satellite Rainfall Information Coupled with Land Surface and Routing Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.

    2016-12-01

    The Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) (http://flood.umd.edu) has been developed and used in recent years to provide real-time flood detection, streamflow estimates and inundation calculations for most of the globe. The GFMS is driven by satellite-based precipitation, with the accuracy of the flood estimates being primarily dependent on the accuracy of the precipitation analyses and the land surface and routing models used. The routing calculations are done at both 12 km and 1 km resolution. Users of GFMS results include international and national flood response organizations. The devastating floods in October 2015 in South Carolina are analyzed indicating that the GFMS estimated streamflow is accurate and useful indicating significant flooding in the upstream basins. Further downstream the GFMS streamflow underestimates due to the presence of dams which are not accounted for in GFMS. Other examples are given for Yemen and Somalia and for Sri Lanka and southern India. A forecast flood event associated with a typhoon hitting Taiwan is also examined. One-kilometer resolution inundation mapping from GFMS holds the promise of highly useful information for flood disaster response. The algorithm is briefly described and examples are shown for recent cases where inundation estimates available from optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite sensors are available. For a case of significant flooding in Texas in May and June along the Brazos River the GFMS calculated streamflow compares favorably with the observed. Available Landsat-based (May 28) and MODIS-based (June 2) inundation analyses from U. of Colorado shows generally good agreement with the GFMS inundation calculation in most of the area where skies were clear and the optical techniques could be applied. The GFMS provides very useful disaster response information on a timely basis. However, there is still significant room for improvement, including improved precipitation information from NASA's Global

  9. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed.

  10. Bunching transition in a time-headway model of a bus route.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, T

    2001-03-01

    A time-headway model is presented to mimic bus behavior on the bus route. The motion of a bus is described in terms of the time headway between its bus and the bus in front. We study the bunching behavior of buses induced by interacting with other buses and passengers. It is shown that the dynamical phase transitions among the inhomogeneous bunching phase, the homogeneous free phase, the coexisting phase, and the homogeneous congested phase occur with varying the initial time headway. We study the effect of not stopping at bus stops on the time-headway profile. It is found that the bunching transition lines are consistent with the neutral stability curves obtained by the linear stability analysis.

  11. OKUMURA-HATA: A PERFECT MODEL FOR DRIVING ROUTE UHF INVESTIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omohimire P. Omolaye

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In today’s competitive world, a successful utility must take maximum advantage of its resources, from people to equipment to information. Using GIS on RF to integrate geographic with other corporate data has become absolutely vital to this task. The truthfulness and understandability of information is dependent upon the way it is presented. Urban planner, biologist, geologist, hydrological engineer and RF engineer tend to discuss some common factor of interest by having a better understanding of their environment (the geographic space of their study area. All these professionals work with data that relates to space. Most precisely, they deal with questions related to geographic space, which might informally be characterized as having positioned data to the earth’s surface. In this paper, we investigate and predict best model suitable for driving route of UHF wave propagation in Ondo state, Nigeria by comparing measured values using GIS equipment with the empirical results.

  12. Route-external and route-internal landmarks in route descriptions : Effects of route length and map design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westerbeek, Hans; Maes, Alfons

    2013-01-01

    Landmarks are basic ingredients in route descriptions. They often mark choice points: locations where travellers choose from different options how to continue the route. This study focuses on one of the loose ends in the taxonomy of landmarks. In a memory-based production experiment in which respond

  13. The use of screening effects in modelling route-based daytime road surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yumei; Almkvist, Esben; Lindberg, Fredrik; Bogren, Jörgen; Gustavsson, Torbjörn

    2016-07-01

    Winter road maintenance is essential for road safety. Accurate predictions of the road surface temperature (RST) and conditions can enhance the efficiency of winter road maintenance. Screening effects, which encompass shading effects and the influence of the sky-view factor ( ψ s ), influence RST distributions because they affect road surface radiation fluxes. In this work, light detection and ranging (Lidar) data are used to derive shadow patterns and ψ s values, and the resulting shadow patterns are used to model route-based RST distributions along two stretches of road in Sweden. The shading patterns and road surface radiation fluxes calculated from the Lidar data generally agreed well with measured RST values. Variation in land use types and the angle between the road direction and solar azimuth may introduce uncertainties, and accounting for these factors may improve the results obtained in certain cases. A simple shading model that only accounts for the direct radiation at the instant of measurement is often sufficient to provide reasonably accurate RST estimates. However, in certain cases, such as those involving measurements close to sunset, it is important to consider the radiation accumulated over several hours. The inclusion of ψ s improves the model performance even more in such cases. Overall, RST models based on the accumulated direct shortwave radiation offered an optimal balance of simplicity and accuracy. General radiation models were built for country road and highway environments, explaining up to 70 and 65 %, respectively, of the observed variation in RST along the corresponding stretches of road.

  14. Efficient simulation of diffusion-based choice RT models on CPU and GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdonck, Stijn; Meers, Kristof; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we present software for the efficient simulation of a broad class of linear and nonlinear diffusion models for choice RT, using either CPU or graphical processing unit (GPU) technology. The software is readily accessible from the popular scripting languages MATLAB and R (both 64-bit). The speed obtained on a single high-end GPU is comparable to that of a small CPU cluster, bringing standard statistical inference of complex diffusion models to the desktop platform.

  15. The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    , ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...... the notions involvedand discuss what can be tested in a general frequency of choice frame-work and more specifically in a random utility model....

  16. DERIVED DEMAND ELASTICITIES: MARKETING MARGIN METHODS VERSUS AN INVERSE DEMAND MODEL FOR CHOICE BEEF

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, John M.

    1991-01-01

    Three methods of calculating the derived elasticity of demand for Choice slaughter beef are used: (a) a traditional marketing margin approach, (b) a modified marketing margin approach, and (c) an econometric, inverse demand model approach. The first method is more restrictive than the second but both tend to overestimate beef price flexibility and revenue changes. The econometric model, though an incomplete demand system, yields demand elasticities that are more consistent with marketing flex...

  17. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Arcidiacono; Patrick Bayer; Jason R. Blevins; Paul B. Ellickson

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework...

  18. Ship Routing with Pickup and Delivery for a Maritime Oil Transportation System: MIP Model and Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinícius P. Rodrigues

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines a ship routing problem with pickup and delivery and time windows for maritime oil transportation, motivated by the production and logistics activities of an oil company operating in the Brazilian coast. The transportation costs from offshore platforms to coastal terminals are an important issue in the search for operational excellence in the oil industry, involving operations that demand agile and effective decision support systems. This paper presents an optimization approach to address this problem, based on a mixed integer programming (MIP model and a novel and exploratory application of two tailor-made MIP heuristics, based on relax-and-fix and time decomposition procedures. The model minimizes fuel costs of a heterogeneous fleet of oil tankers and costs related to freighting contracts. The model also considers company-specific constraints for offshore oil transportation. Computational experiments based on the mathematical models and the related MIP heuristics are presented for a set of real data provided by the company, which confirm the potential of optimization-based methods to find good solutions for problems of moderate sizes.

  19. The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

    2014-12-01

    The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes.

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER FLOOD ROUTING MODEL USING NON-LINEAR MUSKINGUM EQUATION AND EXCEL TOOL 'GANetXL'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Briti Sundar Sil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood routing is of utmost importance to water resources engineers and hydrologist. Muskingum model is one of the popular methods for river flood routing which often require a huge computational work. To solve the routing parameters, most of the established methods require knowledge about different computer programmes and sophisticated models. So, it is beneficial to have a tool which is comfortable to users having more knowledge about everyday decision making problems rather than the development of computational models as the programmes. The use of micro-soft excel and its relevant tool like solver by the practicing engineers for normal modeling tasks has become common over the last few decades. In excel environment, tools are based on graphical user interface which are very comfortable for the users for handling database, modeling, data analysis and programming. GANetXL is an add-in for Microsoft Excel, a leading commercial spreadsheet application for Windows and MAC operating systems. GANetXL is a program that uses a Genetic Algorithm to solve a wide range of single and multi-objective problems. In this study, non-linear Muskingum routing parameters are solved using GANetXL. Statistical Model performances are compared with the earlier results and found satisfactory.

  1. Tidal-scale flow routing and sedimentation in mangrove forests: Combining field data and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horstman, E. M.; Dohmen-Janssen, C. M.; Bouma, T. J.; Hulscher, S. J. M. H.

    2015-01-01

    Tidal-scale biophysical interactions establish particular flow routing and sedimentation patterns in coastal mangroves. Sluggish water flows through the mangrove vegetation and enhanced sediment deposition are essential to maintain these valuable ecosystems, thereby enabling their contribution to coastal protection and stabilization. Spatially explicit field observations of tidal-scale flow routing and sediment deposition were obtained in an elevated mangrove stand dissected by tidal creeks, located in the Trang river estuary at the Thai Andaman coast. An accurate and efficient depth-averaged process-based numerical model of this field site was developed in Delft3D to study the contributions of various biogeophysical mangrove settings to the observed tidal dynamics and to study the impacts of changes of these environmental conditions. The creeks are found to form the major pathway for the tidal inflow during the lower tides, while the sheltered interior of the forest is an effective sediment sink during the higher tides. A numerical sensitivity analysis of the initial response-or adaptive capacity-of the studied mangrove system to instantaneous environmental changes reveals the stable state of the study site: deposition rates are largely imposed by the topography and relative elevation, while they are rather independent of the vegetation density. Deeper inundations of the mangroves favor sheet flows through the forest and spatially averaged deposition rates decrease, particularly when this coincides with decreasing vegetation densities. Moreover, the sediment trapping efficiency is found to reduce significantly with diminishing sediment inputs and with mangrove area losses. These results clearly indicate the sensitivity of mangroves' ecosystem engineering ability-in terms of sedimentation-to climate change and anthropogenic threats.

  2. Variation in LCA results for disposable polystyrene beverage cups due to multiple data sets and modelling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.

    2014-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of the same products often result in different, sometimes even contradictory outcomes. Reasons for these differences include using different data sets and deviating modelling choices. This paper purposely used different data sets and modelling choices to identify how th

  3. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  4. The stay/switch model describes choice among magnitudes of reinforcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonall, James S

    2008-06-01

    The stay/switch model is an alternative to the generalized matching law for describing choice in concurrent procedures. The purpose of the present experiment was to extend this model to choice among magnitudes of reinforcers. Rats were exposed to conditions in which the magnitude of reinforcers (number of food pellets) varied for staying at alternative 1, switching from alternative 1, staying at alternative 2 and switching from alternative 2. A changeover delay was not used. The results showed that the stay/switch model provided a good account of the data overall, and deviations from fits of the generalized matching law to response allocation data were in the direction predicted by the stay/switch model. In addition, comparisons among specific conditions suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers, as in the generalized matching law, was not necessary to change the response and time allocations. Other comparisons suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers was not sufficient to change response allocation. Taken together these results provide additional support for the stay/switch model of concurrent choice.

  5. Bee Inspired Novel Optimization Algorithm and Mathematical Model for Effective and Efficient Route Planning in Railway System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Kah Huo; Abdul-Rahman, Hamzah; Wang, Chen; Onn, Chiu Chuen

    2016-01-01

    Railway and metro transport systems (RS) are becoming one of the popular choices of transportation among people, especially those who live in urban cities. Urbanization and increasing population due to rapid development of economy in many cities are leading to a bigger demand for urban rail transit. Despite being a popular variant of Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), it appears that the universal formula or techniques to solve the problem are yet to be found. This paper aims to develop an optimization algorithm for optimum route selection to multiple destinations in RS before returning to the starting point. Bee foraging behaviour is examined to generate a reliable algorithm in railway TSP. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results with the exact solutions in 10 test cases, and a numerical case study is designed to demonstrate the application with large size sample. It is tested to be efficient and effective in railway route planning as the tour can be completed within a certain period of time by using minimal resources. The findings further support the reliability of the algorithm and capability to solve the problems with different complexity. This algorithm can be used as a method to assist business practitioners making better decision in route planning. PMID:27930659

  6. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  7. The Lognormal Race: A Cognitive-Process Model of Choice and Latency with Desirable Psychometric Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Province, Jordan M; Morey, Richard D; Gomez, Pablo; Heathcote, Andrew

    2015-06-01

    We present a cognitive process model of response choice and response time performance data that has excellent psychometric properties and may be used in a wide variety of contexts. In the model there is an accumulator associated with each response option. These accumulators have bounds, and the first accumulator to reach its bound determines the response time and response choice. The times at which accumulator reaches its bound is assumed to be lognormally distributed, hence the model is race or minima process among lognormal variables. A key property of the model is that it is relatively straightforward to place a wide variety of models on the logarithm of these finishing times including linear models, structural equation models, autoregressive models, growth-curve models, etc. Consequently, the model has excellent statistical and psychometric properties and can be used in a wide range of contexts, from laboratory experiments to high-stakes testing, to assess performance. We provide a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the model, and illustrate its flexibility with an application in testing and one in lexical decision making, a reading skill.

  8. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System......-based model, suggesting that both models should serve as a basis for evaluating crash scenarios and driver warning systems....

  9. A Joint Specification Test for Response Probabilities in Unordered Multinomial Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masamune Iwasawa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimation results obtained by parametric models may be seriously misleading when the model is misspecified or poorly approximates the true model. This study proposes a test that jointly tests the specifications of multiple response probabilities in unordered multinomial choice models. The test statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed, consistent against a fixed alternative and able to detect a local alternative approaching to the null at a rate slower than the parametric rate. We show that rejection regions can be calculated by a simple parametric bootstrap procedure, when the sample size is small. The size and power of the tests are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments.

  10. Classifying Chinese children with dyslexia by dual-route and triangle models of Chinese reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li-Chih; Yang, Hsien-Ming

    2014-11-01

    This present study focuses on classifying developmental dyslexia by combining two famous models, the dual-route model and the triangle model of Chinese reading, re-examining validity of the subtypes, and observing the error types of word recognition for each subtype. Sixty-sixth graders with dyslexia in Chinese and 45 sixth graders who were matched by age and IQ with the dyslexic group were involved in the present study. Twelve (20%) sixth graders from the dyslexic group were classified as having phonological dyslexia, 11 (18.3%) were classified as surface dyslexia, 12 (20%) were classified as deep dyslexia, and five (8.3%) of them were classified as displaying more than one kind of deficit. Besides, still more than half (31; 51.7%) of the dyslexic group did not belong to any subtypes here. These subtypes had a good validity based on comparison of their phonological awareness, orthography, and semantics. Finally, for their error types of word recognition, both children with multiple-deficit dyslexia and children with non-subtype dyslexia showed a proportional pattern of six kinds of errors. Children with phonological dyslexia showed more phonetic errors and analogy errors, children with surface dyslexia showed more visual errors and analogy errors, and children with deep dyslexia showed more semantic errors and selective errors.

  11. An Optimization Model for the Vehicle Routing Problem in Multi-product Frozen Food Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses a vehicle scheduling problem encountered in the cold chain logistics of the frozen food delivery industry. Unlike the single product delivery scenario, we propose an optimization model that manages the delivery of a variety of products. In this scenario, a set of customers make requests for a variety of frozen foods which are being loaded together. The objective is to find the routes that represent the minimum delivery cost for a fleet of identical vehicles that, departing from a depot, visiting all customers only once and returning to the depot. The delivery cost includes the transportation cost, the cost of refrigeration, the penalty cost and cargo damage cost based on the characteristics of different frozen food products. Apart from the usual constraints of time windows and loading weight, the study also takes into account the constraints of loading volume related to the unit volume of different frozen foods. We then propose a Genetic Algorithm (GA method for the model. Computational tests with real data from a case validate the feasibility and rationality of the model and show the efficient combinations of parameter values of the GA method.

  12. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  13. The role of model female quality in the mate choice copying behaviour of sailfin mollies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Sarah E; Ryan, Michael J

    2006-06-22

    Female mate choice copying is a socially mediated mate choice behaviour, in which a male's attractiveness to females increases if he was previously chosen by another female as a mate. Although copying has been demonstrated in numerous species, little is known about the specific benefits it confers to copying females. Here we demonstrate that the mate choice behaviour of female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) is influenced by the phenotypic quality of model females with whom males are observed consorting. Test females choosing between two males of similar body length were found to significantly increase time spent with previously non-preferred males after having observed them with a relatively high-quality female. Conversely, females were found to significantly decrease time spent with previously preferred males after having observed them with a relatively low-quality female. Female mate choice copying might be maintained by selection based on the heuristic value it provides females choosing between males whose quality differences are not easily distinguishable.

  14. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  15. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  16. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  17. Using an operating cost model to analyse the selection of aircraft type on short-haul routes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ssamula, B

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available and the effect of passenger volume analysed. The model was applied to a specific route within Africa, and thereafter varying passenger numbers, to choose the least costly aircraft. The results showed that smaller capacity aircraft, even though limited by maximum...

  18. Comparative empirical analysis of flow-weighted transit route networks in R-space and evolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ailing; Zang, Guangzhi; He, Zhengbing; Guan, Wei

    2017-05-01

    Urban public transit system is a typical mixed complex network with dynamic flow, and its evolution should be a process coupling topological structure with flow dynamics, which has received little attention. This paper presents the R-space to make a comparative empirical analysis on Beijing’s flow-weighted transit route network (TRN) and we found that both the Beijing’s TRNs in the year of 2011 and 2015 exhibit the scale-free properties. As such, we propose an evolution model driven by flow to simulate the development of TRNs with consideration of the passengers’ dynamical behaviors triggered by topological change. The model simulates that the evolution of TRN is an iterative process. At each time step, a certain number of new routes are generated driven by travel demands, which leads to dynamical evolution of new routes’ flow and triggers perturbation in nearby routes that will further impact the next round of opening new routes. We present the theoretical analysis based on the mean-field theory, as well as the numerical simulation for this model. The results obtained agree well with our empirical analysis results, which indicate that our model can simulate the TRN evolution with scale-free properties for distributions of node’s strength and degree. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the global evolutional mechanism of transit network that will be used to exploit planning and design strategies for real TRNs.

  19. Parameterizing road construction in route-based road weather models: can ground-penetrating radar provide any answers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, D. S.; Chapman, L.; Thornes, J. E.

    2011-05-01

    A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of a 32 km mixed urban and rural study route is undertaken to assess the usefulness of GPR as a tool for parameterizing road construction in a route-based road weather forecast model. It is shown that GPR can easily identify even the smallest of bridges along the route, which previous thermal mapping surveys have identified as thermal singularities with implications for winter road maintenance. Using individual GPR traces measured at each forecast point along the route, an inflexion point detection algorithm attempts to identify the depth of the uppermost subsurface layers at each forecast point for use in a road weather model instead of existing ordinal road-type classifications. This approach has the potential to allow high resolution modelling of road construction and bridge decks on a scale previously not possible within a road weather model, but initial results reveal that significant future research will be required to unlock the full potential that this technology can bring to the road weather industry.

  20. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Harst, Eugenie; Potting, José; Kroeze, Carolien

    2014-10-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust.

  1. The potential of electromobility in Austria: An analysis based on hybrid choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke; Hanappi, Tibor

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of electromobility in Austria, focusing specifically on the potential demand for electric vehicles in the automotive market. We estimate discrete choice behavioral mixture models considering latent variables; these allows us to deal with this potential demand as well as to analyze the effect of different attributes of the alternatives over the potential market penetration. We find out that some usual assumptions regarding electromobilityalso ...

  2. Security-Based Mechanism for Proactive Routing Schema Using Game Theory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham Amraoui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Game theory may offer a useful mechanism to address many problems in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs. One of the key concepts in the research field of such networks with Optimized Link State Routing Protocol (OLSR is the security problem. Relying on applying game theory to study this problem, we consider two strategies during this suggested model: cooperate and not-cooperate. However, in such networks, it is not easy to identify different actions of players. In this paper, we have essentially been inspired from recent advances provided in game theory to propose a new model for security in MANETs. Our proposal presents a powerful tool with a large number of players where interactions are played multiple times. Moreover, each node keeps a cooperation rate (CR record of other nodes to cope with the behaviors and mitigate aggregate effect of other malicious devices. Additionally, our suggested security mechanism does not only take into consideration security requirements, but also take into account system resources and network performances. The simulation results using Network Simulator 3 are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal.

  3. [Predicting the dispersal routes of alpine plant Pedicularis longiflora (Orobanchaceae) based on GIS and species distribution models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hai-In; Zhang, Yi-Li; Li, Shi-Cheng; Qi, Wei; Hu, Zhong-Jun

    2014-06-01

    Pedicularis longiflora experienced extensive populations' expansion in Quaternary, but the dispersal corridors were still unclear. According to the distribution patterns of haplotypes based on chloroplast DNA variation, the dispersal routes were predicted using species distribution models (MXENT) and the least-cost path method. Two possible dispersal routes from the southeastern part of Tibetan Plateau (TP) to interior were identified. The populations of East Himalayas-Hengduan Mountains region expanded to the western part of TP along with the Yarlung Zangbo River valley and the lower altitudes of the north slope of Himalayas. The expansion trend was also proved by SDMs based on two historical periods containing the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. In conclusion, identification of dispersal routes is significant to the evolutionary history of alpine plants and the protection of special species in TP.

  4. 保障性住房融资创新的路径选择%Analysis on the Innovation Route Choice of Affordable Housing Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭禹

    2015-01-01

    The development of affordable housing is facing the bottleneck of capital bottleneck. This paper analyzes the main problems of the affordable housing financing, the finance of housing funding sources, instability, investment and financing system of rigid, the policy of housing finance development lags behind, capital market financing channels impeded and so on. This paper puts forward the path choice of innovative affordable housing financing channels. Firstly, we should put the financial investment into the public financial system, and exert the leverage effect of financial funds. Secondly, we should vigorously develop policy housing financial institutions, to make up for the shortage of commercial credit. Finally, we should promote the innovation of financial instruments in the capital market, to attract the social capital into the affordable housing field.%保障性住房发展面临着资金瓶颈障碍。本文分析了保障性住房融资面临的主要问题,即财政性住房资金来源不稳定、投融资体制僵化,政策性住房金融发展滞后,资本市场融资渠道不畅等。本文提出了创新保障性住房融资渠道的路径选择:一是要将财政资金投入纳入公共财政体系,发挥财政资金杠杆效应;二是要大力发展政策性住房金融机构,弥补商业信贷的不足;三是要推动资本市场金融工具创新,吸引民间社会资本进入保障性住房领域。

  5. A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

  6. Modeling and Performance Analysis of Route-Over and Mesh-Under Routing Schemes in 6LoWPAN under Error-Prone Channel Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Han Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available 6LoWPAN technology has attracted extensive attention recently. It is because 6LoWPAN is one of Internet of Things standard and it adapts to IPv6 protocol stack over low-rate wireless personal area network, such as IEEE 802.15.4. One view is that IP architecture is not suitable for low-rate wireless personal area network. It is a challenge to implement the IPv6 protocol stack into IEEE 802.15.4 devices due to that the size of IPv6 packet is much larger than the maximum packet size of IEEE 802.15.4 in data link layer. In order to solve this problem, 6LoWPAN provides header compression to reduce the transmission overhead for IP packets. In addition, two selected routing schemes, mesh-under and route-over routing schemes, are also proposed in 6LoWPAN to forward IP fragmentations under IEEE 802.15.4 radio link. The distinction is based on which layer of the 6LoWPAN protocol stack is in charge of routing decisions. In route-over routing scheme, the routing distinction is taken at the network layer and, in mesh-under, is taken by the adaptation layer. Thus, the goal of this research is to understand the performance of two routing schemes in 6LoWPAN under error-prone channel condition.

  7. Constraining snow model choices in a transitional snow environment with intensive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Massmann, A.; Clark, M. P.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    The performance of existing energy balance snow models exhibits a large spread in the simulated snow water equivalent, snow depth, albedo, and surface temperature. Indentifying poor model representations of physical processes within intercomparison studies is difficult due to multiple differences between models as well as non-orthogonal metrics used. Efforts to overcome these obstacles for model development have focused on a modeling framework that allows multiple representations of each physical process within one structure. However, there still exists a need for snow study sites within complex terrain that observe enough model states and fluxes to constrain model choices. In this study we focus on an intensive snow observational site located in the maritime-transitional snow climate of Snoqualmie Pass WA (Figure 1). The transitional zone has been previously identified as a difficult climate to simulate snow processes; therefore, it represents an ideal model-vetting site. From two water years of intensive observational data, we have learned that a more honest comparison with observations requires that the modeled states or fluxes be as similar to the spatial and temporal domain of the instrument, even if it means changing the model to match what is being observed. For example, 24-hour snow board observations do not capture compaction of the underlying snow; therefore, a modeled "snow board" was created that only includes new snow accumulation and new snow compaction. We extend this method of selective model validation to all available Snoqualmie observations to constrain model choices within the Structure for Understanding Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) framework. Our end goal is to provide a more rigorous and systematic method for diagnosing problems within snow models at a site given numerous snow observations.

  8. 我国盐业管制制度改革的路径选择%The Route Choice of China's Salt Industry Regulatory Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕福玉

    2012-01-01

    Currently, there are three views on salt system reform and respectively all circles propose to relax the salt regu- lation, or adhere to the monopoly management or strengthen the monopoly system. However, this author argues that the social regulation is not feasible, the monopoly system can not be sustainable and the national franchise system is not desirable, so the franchise bidding system could be a good choice with its incentives and franchise bidding policy and governance system de- signed by this paper providing intellectual support and decision-making reference for the government. It's based on the analysis on paradigm of "regulatory treatment -regulatory incentives-regulatory performance" by employing the method of both normative and empirical analysis, and by using the theories of new institutional economics, agency and the welfare economics, Thus, it helps to provide intellectual support and decision-making for China's salt industry reform.%目前,社会各界主要提出放松盐业管制、坚持食盐专营和强化食盐专营三种盐业体制改革主张。文章基于"管制治理—管制激励—管制绩效"的管制制度分析范式,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,运用新制度经济学理论、代理理论和福利经济理论等,通过对以上三种管制改革路径的分析,认为盐业社会性管制不可行、食盐专营制度不可续、国家专营制度不可取,筛选出我国盐业管制制度的次优改革路径——盐业特许投标制度,并设计出激励兼容的特许投标政策和特许投标治理体制,以期为我国盐业体制改革提供智力支撑和决策参考。

  9. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  10. Coupled Ising models and interdependent discrete choices under social influence in homogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    del Río, Ana Fernández

    2011-01-01

    The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...

  11. Combining flow routing modelling and direct velocity measurement for optimal discharge estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Corato

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A new procedure is proposed for estimating river discharge hydrographs during flood events, using only water level data measured at a gauged site, as well as 1-D shallow water modelling and sporadic maximum surface flow velocity measurements. During flood, the piezometric level is surmised constant in the vertical plane of the river section, where the top of the banks is always above the river level, and is well represented by the recorded stage hydrograph. The river is modelled along the reach directly located downstream the upstream gauged section, where discharge hydrograph is sought after. For the stability with respect to the topographic error, as well as for the simplicity of the data required to satisfy the boundary conditions, a diffusive hydraulic model is adopted for flow routing. Assigned boundary conditions are: (1 the recorded stage hydrograph at the upstream river site and (2 the zero diffusion condition at the downstream end of the reach. The MAST algorithm is used for the numerical solution of the flow routing problem, which is embedded in the Brent algorithm used for the computation of the optimum Manning coefficient. Based on synthetic tests concerning a broad prismatic channel, the optimal reach length is chosen so that the approximated downstream boundary condition effects on discharge hydrograph assessment at upstream end are negligible. The roughness Manning coefficient is calibrated by using sporadic instantaneous surface velocity measurements during the rising limb of flood that are turned into instantaneous discharges through the solid of velocity estimated by a two-dimensional entropic model. Several historical events, occurring in three gauged sites along the upper Tiber River wherein a reliable rating curve is available, have been used for the validation. The analysis outcomes can be so summarized: (1 criteria adopted for selecting the optimal channel length and based on synthetic tests have been proved reliable by

  12. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  13. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  14. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System...... (GES) crash database for the period between 2005 and 2009. The predictive ability of the RRM-based model is slightly superior to its RUM-based counterpart, namely the multinomial logit model (MNL) model. The marginal effects predicted by the RRM-based model are greater than those predicted by the RUM-based...

  15. Models of care choices in today's nursing workplace: where does team nursing sit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Greg; Chiarella, Mary; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2015-11-01

    This paper provides an overview of the developmental history of models of care (MOC) in nursing since Florence Nightingale introduced nurse training programs in a drive to make nursing a discipline-based career option. The four principal choices of models of nursing care delivery (primary nursing, individual patient allocation, team nursing and functional nursing) are outlined and discussed, and recent MOC literature reviewed. The paper suggests that, given the ways work is being rapidly reconfigured in healthcare services and the pressures on the nursing workforce projected into the future, team nursing seems to offer the best solutions.

  16. Application of a New Hybrid Fuzzy AHP Model to the Location Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Chang Chou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP algorithm to deal with the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment. In this study, the proposed hybrid fuzzy AHP model is applied to the location choices of international distribution centers in international ports from the view of multiple-nation corporations. The results show that the proposed new hybrid fuzzy AHP model is an appropriate tool to solve the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment.

  17. [The model of the reward choice basing on the theory of reinforcement learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnitskaia, I A; Frolov, A A; Merzhanova, G Kh

    2007-01-01

    We developed the model of alimentary instrumental conditioned bar-pressing reflex for cats making a choice between either immediate small reinforcement ("impulsive behavior") or delayed more valuable reinforcement ("self-control behavior"). Our model is based on the reinforcement learning theory. We emulated dopamine contribution by discount coefficient of this theory (a subjective decrease in the value of a delayed reinforcement). The results of computer simulation showed that "cats" with large discount coefficient demonstrated "self-control behavior"; small discount coefficient was associated with "impulsive behavior". This data are in agreement with the experimental data indicating that the impulsive behavior is due to a decreased amount of dopamine in striatum.

  18. A Solution Approach from an Analytic Model to Heuristic Algorithm for Special Case of Vehicle Routing Problem with Stochastic Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Selçuk K. İşleyen; Ö. Faruk Baykoç

    2008-01-01

    We define a special case for the vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands (SC-VRPSD) where customer demands are normally distributed. We propose a new linear model for computing the expected length of a tour in SC-VRPSD. The proposed model is based on the integration of the “Traveling Salesman Problem” (TSP) and the Assignment Problem. For large-scale problems, we also use an Iterated Local Search (ILS) algorithm in order to reach an effective solution.

  19. Modelling the impact of liner shipping network perturbations on container cargo routing: Southeast Asia to Europe application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achurra-Gonzalez, Pablo E; Novati, Matteo; Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Graham, Daniel J; Bowman, Gary; Bell, Michael G H; Angeloudis, Panagiotis

    2016-06-03

    Understanding how container routing stands to be impacted by different scenarios of liner shipping network perturbations such as natural disasters or new major infrastructure developments is of key importance for decision-making in the liner shipping industry. The variety of actors and processes within modern supply chains and the complexity of their relationships have previously led to the development of simulation-based models, whose application has been largely compromised by their dependency on extensive and often confidential sets of data. This study proposes the application of optimisation techniques less dependent on complex data sets in order to develop a quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disruptive events on liner shipping networks. We provide a categorization of liner network perturbations, differentiating between systemic and external and formulate a container assignment model that minimises routing costs extending previous implementations to allow feasible solutions when routing capacity is reduced below transport demand. We develop a base case network for the Southeast Asia to Europe liner shipping trade and review of accidents related to port disruptions for two scenarios of seismic and political conflict hazards. Numerical results identify alternative routing paths and costs in the aftermath of port disruptions scenarios and suggest higher vulnerability of intra-regional connectivity.

  20. Fear of Floating and Pegging: A Simultaneous Choice Model of De Jure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies.

  1. Sensitivity Test of Parameters Influencing Flood Hydrograph Routing with a Diffusion-Wave Distributed using Distributed Hydrological Model, Wet Spa, in Ziarat Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    narges javidan; Abdolreza Bahremand

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Flood routing is a procedure to calculate flood stage and water depth along a river or to estimate flood hydrograph at river downstream or at reservoir outlets using the upstream hydrography . In river basins, excess rainfall is routed to the basin outlet using flow routing techniques to generate flow hydrograph. A GIS-based distributed hydrological model, Wet Spa, has been under development suitable for flood prediction and watershed management on a catchment scale. The mo...

  2. Mathematical modelling and evaluation of the different routes of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magori-Cohen, Reuma; Louzoun, Yoram; Herziger, Yael; Oron, Eldad; Arazi, Alon; Tuppurainen, Eeva; Shpigel, Nahum Y; Klement, Eyal

    2012-01-11

    Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle. Circumstantial evidence suggests that the virus is transmitted mechanically by blood-feeding arthropods. We compared the importance of transmission via direct and indirect contact in field conditions by using mathematical tools. We analyzed a dataset collected during the LSD outbreak in 2006 in a large dairy herd, which included ten separated cattle groups. Outbreak dynamics and risk factors for LSD were assessed by a transmission model. Transmission by three contact modes was modelled; indirect contact between the groups within a herd, direct contact or contact via common drinking water within the groups and transmission by contact during milking procedure. Indirect transmission was the only parameter that could solely explain the entire outbreak dynamics and was estimated to have an overall effect that was over 5 times larger than all other possible routes of transmission, combined. The R0 value induced by indirect transmission per the presence of an infectious cow for 1 day in the herd was 15.7, while the R0 induced by direct transmission was 0.36. Sensitivity analysis showed that this result is robust to a wide range of assumptions regarding mean and standard deviation of incubation period and regarding the existence of sub-clinically infected cattle. These results indicate that LSD virus spread within the affected herd could hardly be attributed to direct contact between cattle or contact through the milking procedure. It is therefore concluded that transmission mostly occurs by indirect contact, probably by flying, blood-sucking insects. This has important implications for control of LSD.

  3. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  4. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  5. Contact Graph Routing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleigh, Scott C.

    2011-01-01

    Contact Graph Routing (CGR) is a dynamic routing system that computes routes through a time-varying topology of scheduled communication contacts in a network based on the DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) architecture. It is designed to enable dynamic selection of data transmission routes in a space network based on DTN. This dynamic responsiveness in route computation should be significantly more effective and less expensive than static routing, increasing total data return while at the same time reducing mission operations cost and risk. The basic strategy of CGR is to take advantage of the fact that, since flight mission communication operations are planned in detail, the communication routes between any pair of bundle agents in a population of nodes that have all been informed of one another's plans can be inferred from those plans rather than discovered via dialogue (which is impractical over long one-way-light-time space links). Messages that convey this planning information are used to construct contact graphs (time-varying models of network connectivity) from which CGR automatically computes efficient routes for bundles. Automatic route selection increases the flexibility and resilience of the space network, simplifying cross-support and reducing mission management costs. Note that there are no routing tables in Contact Graph Routing. The best route for a bundle destined for a given node may routinely be different from the best route for a different bundle destined for the same node, depending on bundle priority, bundle expiration time, and changes in the current lengths of transmission queues for neighboring nodes; routes must be computed individually for each bundle, from the Bundle Protocol agent's current network connectivity model for the bundle s destination node (the contact graph). Clearly this places a premium on optimizing the implementation of the route computation algorithm. The scalability of CGR to very large networks remains a research topic

  6. 边贸城市品牌定位与传播路径--以崇左市为例%Theory Innovation and Route Choice of Brand Communication in Border Trade City --A Case Study of Chongzuo City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李庆春

    2014-01-01

    崇左市是个新兴的边贸城,如何塑造和推广好边贸城市这个品牌,对桂西南边境地区的经济社会发展有着重要的战略意义。崇左市政府作为城市品牌的传播营销的主体,应立足中国-东盟大背景,综合分析崇左市的人文、历史、地理及资源优势、特色,准确城市定位,建立城市品牌,并通过多种路径进行城市品牌的传播,以提高城市价值和城市竞争力。%As a key border trade city and the door to ASEAN, the brand image of Chongzuo city is of great strategic significance to the improve-ment of economy and people’ s life in southwest Guangxi. Based on development of border trade city in southwest Guangxi and the case study of Chongzuo city, the route choice of building and promoting the brand image of border trade city in southwest Guangxi is analyzed and investigated with the theories of brand, management, communication and advertisement.

  7. 我国青少年研究事业可持续发展的挑战与路径选择%The Challenges and Route Choices of Sustainable Development of Chinas Youth Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张华

    2012-01-01

    青少年研究作为一项事业在我国只有30多年的历史。当具备青少年工作经历的两代拓荒者陆续进入退休年龄之际,青少年研究事业的可持续发展面临梯队建设、学科化发展和新生代研究者价值选择三大挑战。需要从发展定位、路径选择及资源整合、专业伦理建设层面探索应对策略。%Youth research has been carried out in China for only more than 30 years. When the two pioneer generations, with abundant youth work experience, began to retire gradually, the sustainable development of youth research are confronted with there challenges : lack of successors, slow development of disciplines, the value confusion of new researchers. We should explore solutions from the perspectives of development orientation, route choice, resources integration and professional theory construction.

  8. Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

    2017-09-01

    'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

  9. Modelling of the optimal vehicle route in terrain in emergency situations using GIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybansky, M.

    2014-02-01

    Most navigation systems in transport are oriented towards the search for optimal paths (shortest or fastest), using vector GIS data. At the time of natural disasters and emergency situations is necessary to consider roads and terrain for transport. This article is focused on finding optimal routes in terrain, which contains a number of point, line and area obstacles. The most frequent point obstacles are trees in the forest. The paper analyzes the typical structure of tree stands in the forest, their characteristics in GIS databases, as well as dimensional parameters of vehicles moving in the forest. The quality of these data is a prerequisite for finding routes between point obstacles. Searching for the fastest or shortest route of the vehicle described in this article is based on the use of the relationship between the Delaunay triangulation and Voronoi graph, the application of Dijkstra's algorithm and the optimization of fractional line. The above-mentioned methods are also exploitable for searching for the shortest route of movement among line obstructions and area obstructions, such route can be apprehended as the joining of points defining impassable terrain. In such a case, the condition must be met that the distance of terminal points of joins has to be adjusted to the extent that it will be shorter than a vehicle width increased by safe margin.

  10. Design and Evaluation of a Dynamic Programming Flight Routing Algorithm Using the Convective Weather Avoidance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Hok K.; Grabbe, Shon; Mukherjee, Avijit

    2010-01-01

    The optimization of traffic flows in congested airspace with varying convective weather is a challenging problem. One approach is to generate shortest routes between origins and destinations while meeting airspace capacity constraint in the presence of uncertainties, such as weather and airspace demand. This study focuses on development of an optimal flight path search algorithm that optimizes national airspace system throughput and efficiency in the presence of uncertainties. The algorithm is based on dynamic programming and utilizes the predicted probability that an aircraft will deviate around convective weather. It is shown that the running time of the algorithm increases linearly with the total number of links between all stages. The optimal routes minimize a combination of fuel cost and expected cost of route deviation due to convective weather. They are considered as alternatives to the set of coded departure routes which are predefined by FAA to reroute pre-departure flights around weather or air traffic constraints. A formula, which calculates predicted probability of deviation from a given flight path, is also derived. The predicted probability of deviation is calculated for all path candidates. Routes with the best probability are selected as optimal. The predicted probability of deviation serves as a computable measure of reliability in pre-departure rerouting. The algorithm can also be extended to automatically adjust its design parameters to satisfy the desired level of reliability.

  11. Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Lance; Ferguson, John; Hoffman, Karla; Donohue, George; Beradino, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

  12. Automatic calibration of a global flow routing model in the Amazon basin using virtual SWOT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogel, P. Y.; Mouffe, M.; Getirana, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Lion, C.; Mognard, N. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A.

    2012-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide swath altimetry mission will provide a global coverage of surface water elevation, which will be used to help correct water height and discharge prediction from hydrological models. Here, the aim is to investigate the use of virtually generated SWOT data to improve water height and discharge simulation using calibration of model parameters (like river width, river depth and roughness coefficient). In this work, we use the HyMAP model to estimate water height and discharge on the Amazon catchment area. Before reaching the river network, surface and subsurface runoff are delayed by a set of linear and independent reservoirs. The flow routing is performed by the kinematic wave equation.. Since the SWOT mission has not yet been launched, virtual SWOT data are generated with a set of true parameters for HyMAP as well as measurement errors from a SWOT data simulator (i.e. a twin experiment approach is implemented). These virtual observations are used to calibrate key parameters of HyMAP through the minimization of a cost function defining the difference between the simulated and observed water heights over a one-year simulation period. The automatic calibration procedure is achieved using the MOCOM-UA multicriteria global optimization algorithm as well as the local optimization algorithm BC-DFO that is considered as a computational cost saving alternative. First, to reduce the computational cost of the calibration procedure, each spatially distributed parameter (Manning coefficient, river width and river depth) is corrupted through the multiplication of a spatially uniform factor that is the only factor optimized. In this case, it is shown that, when the measurement errors are small, the true water heights and discharges are easily retrieved. Because of equifinality, the true parameters are not always identified. A spatial correction of the model parameters is then investigated and the domain is divided into 4 regions

  13. CCMP-AES Model with DSR routing protocol to secure Link layer and Network layer in Mobile Adhoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.G.Padmavathi

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Mobile Adhoc network is a special kind of wireless networks. It is a collection of mobile nodes without having aid of established infrastructure. Mobile Adhoc network are vulnerable to attacks compared to wired networks due to limited physical security, volatilenetwork topologies, power-constrained operations, intrinsic requirement of mutual trust among all nodes. During deployment, security emerges as a central requirement due to many attacks that affects the performance of the ad hoc networks. Particularly Blackhole attack is one such severe attack against ad hoc routing protocols which is a challenging one to defend against. The proposed model combines the On demand routing protocol DSR with CCMP-AES mode to defend against black hole attack and it also provides confidentiality and authentication of packets in both routing and link layers of MANET. The primary focus of this work is to provide security mechanisms while transmitting data frames in a node to node manner. The security protocol CCMP-AES working in data link layerkeeps data frame from eavesdropping, interception, alteration, or dropping from unauthorized party along the route from the source to the destination. The simulation is done for different number of mobile nodes using network simulator qualnet 5.0. The proposedmodel has shown better results in terms of Total bytes received, packet delivery ratio, throughput, End to End delay and Average jitter.

  14. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  15. Factors Affecting the Choice of Software Life Cycle Models in the Software Industry-An Empirical Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vandana Bhattacherjee; M. S. Neogi; Rupa Mahanti

    2012-01-01

    .... Results and Conclusion: The survey results revealed that the level of understanding of the user requirements is the most important fact in the choice of the life cycle model used in the software project...

  16. Two routes to face perception: evidence from psychophysics and computational modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwaninger, Adrian; Lobmaier, Janek S; Wallraven, Christian; Collishaw, Stephan

    2009-11-01

    The aim of this study was to separately analyze the role of featural and configural face representations. Stimuli containing only featural information were created by cutting the faces into their parts and scrambling them. Stimuli only containing configural information were created by blurring the faces. Employing an old-new recognition task, the aim of Experiments 1 and 2 was to investigate whether unfamiliar faces (Exp. 1) or familiar faces (Exp. 2) can be recognized if only featural or configural information is provided. Both scrambled and blurred faces could be recognized above chance level. A further aim of Experiments 1 and 2 was to investigate whether our method of creating configural and featural stimuli is valid. Pre-activation of one form of representation did not facilitate recognition of the other, neither for unfamiliar faces (Exp. 1) nor for familiar faces (Exp. 2). This indicates a high internal validity of our method for creating configural and featural face stimuli. Experiment 3 examined whether features placed in their correct categorical relational position but with distorted metrical distances facilitated recognition of unfamiliar faces. These faces were recognized no better than the scrambled faces in Experiment 1, providing further evidence that facial features are stored independently of configural information. From these results we conclude that both featural and configural information are important to recognize a face and argue for a dual-mode hypothesis of face processing. Using the psychophysical results as motivation, we propose a computational framework that implements featural and configural processing routes using an appearance-based representation based on local features and their spatial relations. In three computational experiments (Experiments 4-6) using the same sets of stimuli, we show how this framework is able to model the psychophysical data. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  17. The integrated model for solving the single-period deterministic inventory routing problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahim, Mohd Kamarul Irwan Abdul; Abidin, Rahimi; Iteng, Rosman; Lamsali, Hendrik

    2016-08-01

    This paper discusses the problem of efficiently managing inventory and routing problems in a two-level supply chain system. Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) policy is an integrating decisions between a supplier and his customers. We assumed that the demand at each customer is stationary and the warehouse is implementing a VMI. The objective of this paper is to minimize the inventory and the transportation costs of the customers for a two-level supply chain. The problem is to determine the delivery quantities, delivery times and routes to the customers for the single-period deterministic inventory routing problem (SP-DIRP) system. As a result, a linear mixed-integer program is developed for the solutions of the SP-DIRP problem.

  18. A Mathematical Model and Algorithm for Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadovsky, Alexander V.

    2016-01-01

    A central challenge in managing today's commercial en route air traffic is the task of routing the aircraft in the presence of adverse weather. Such weather can make regions of the airspace unusable, so all affected flights must be re-routed. Today this task is carried out by conference and negotiation between human air traffic controllers (ATC) responsible for the involved sectors of the airspace. One can argue that, in so doing, ATC try to solve an optimization problem without giving it a precise quantitative formulation. Such a formulation gives the mathematical machinery for constructing and verifying algorithms that are aimed at solving the problem. This paper contributes one such formulation and a corresponding algorithm. The algorithm addresses weather uncertainty and has closed form, which allows transparent analysis of correctness, realism, and computational costs.

  19. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  20. Models in cooperative game theory crisp, fuzzy, and multi-choice games

    CERN Document Server

    Branzei, Rodica; Tijs, Stef

    2005-01-01

    This book investigates models in cooperative game theory in which the players have the possibility to cooperate partially. In a crisp game the agents are either fully involved or not involved at all in coperation with some other agents, while in a fuzzy game players are allowed to cooperate with infinite many different participation levels, varying from non-cooperation to full cooperation. A multi-choice game describes the intermediate case in which each player may have a fixed number of activity levels. Different set and one-point solution concepts for these games are presented. The propertie

  1. Industrial fuel choice analysis model. Volume II. Appendices to model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-08

    Descriptions, documentation, and other information are included in these appendices dealing with industrial fuel choices: Energy Consumption Data Base; Major Fuel Burning Installation Survey; American Boiler Manufacturers Association Data File; Midrange Energy Forecasting System; Projection Method; Capacity Utilization Rates; Nonboiler Characteristics; Boiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Nonboiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Approach to Estimating Energy Impacts of the Coal Conversion Regulatory Program; Index or Acronyms.

  2. Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Mylene

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies.

  3. Distinguishing between population bottleneck and population subdivision by a Bayesian model choice procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Benjamin M; Wegmann, Daniel; Excoffier, Laurent

    2010-11-01

    Although most natural populations are genetically subdivided, they are often analysed as if they were panmictic units. In particular, signals of past demographic size changes are often inferred from genetic data by assuming that the analysed sample is drawn from a population without any internal subdivision. However, it has been shown that a bottleneck signal can result from the presence of some recent immigrants in a population. It thus appears important to contrast these two alternative scenarios in a model choice procedure to prevent wrong conclusions to be made. We use here an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to infer whether observed patterns of genetic diversity in a given sample are more compatible with it being drawn from a panmictic population having gone through some size change, or from one or several demes belonging to a recent finite island model. Simulations show that we can correctly identify samples drawn from a subdivided population in up to 95% of the cases for a wide range of parameters. We apply our model choice procedure to the case of the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and find conclusive evidence that Western and Eastern chimpanzee samples are drawn from a spatially subdivided population. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Fertility behavior and labor force participation: a model of lexicographic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnacion, J J

    1982-01-01

    Evidence exists that a smaller family size is usually associated with female employment and that fertility rises with family income and the wife's education at relatively low levels of income and education. Only at higher levels is there the generally expected relationship that fertility declines with more education or income. Due to the fact that a woman's labor force participation and her fertility are aspects of behavior of the same person (or couple), they should be explained by a model of choice. Such a model is presented, and empirical evidence is cited. In particular, the model allows for a fertility decline even before a decline in mortality during the demographic transition. The model of choice involves threshold values of education and income, such that the marginal effects of these variables on fertility and labor supply are qualitatively different below and above the threshold. The model is in conformity with cross-section regressions using Philippine data and appears to explain why various studies give positive, zero, or negative regression coefficients relating fertility to education and income when standard linear regression specifications are used. Such results would depend on the proportions of families falling below and above the thresholds in the sample of observations. The model also implies that the fertility effects of a child mortality decline on those proportions, meaning that one could have lower mortality without affecting fertility levels. From a policy perspective, the broad implications of the model are distrubing. Development that raises very low income and education levels would increase fertility and so would a more egalitarian distribution of the same low aggregate income. It is necessary to shift the underlying functions so that the thresholds become as low as possible, but general economic development may be too slow for this purpose.

  5. Simulation of long-term debris flow sediment transport based on a slope stability and a debris flow routing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, T.; Hoffmann, T.

    2012-04-01

    Debris flows play a crucial role in the coupling of hillslope-sediment sources and channels in mountain environments. In most landscape evolution models (LEMs), the sediment transport by debris flows is (if at all) often represented by simple empirical rules. This generally results from the mismatch of the coarse resolution of the LEMs and the small scale impacts of debris flow processes. To extend the accuracy and predictive power of LEMs, either a higher resolution of LEMs in combination with process-based debris flow models or a better parametrisation of subpixel scale debris flow processes is necessary. Furthermore, the simulation of sediment transport by debris flows is complicated by their episodic nature and unknown factors controlling the frequency and magnitude of events. Here, we present first results using a slope stability model (SINMAP) and an event-based debris flow routing model (SCIDDICA-S4c) to simulate the effects of debris flows in LEMs. The model was implemented in the XULU modelling platform developed by the Department of Computer Science at the University of Bonn. The combination of the slope stability model and the event-based routing and mass balance model enables us to simulate the triggering and routing of debris flow material through the iteration of single events over several thousand years. Although a detailed calibration and validation remains to be done, the resulting debris flow-affected areas in a test elevation model correspond well with data gained from a geomorphological mapping of the corresponding area, justifying our approach. The increased computation speed allows to run high resolution LEM in convenient short time at relatively low cost. This should encourage the development of more detailed LEMs, in which process-based models should be incorporated.

  6. Relevance Of Utility Maximization In Student University Choice – A Consumption-Based Model For Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. SCHWARTZ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.

  7. Using discrete choice modeling to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbiol, Joseph; Yabe, Mitsuyasu; Nomura, Hisako; Borja, Maridel; Gloriani, Nina; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2015-01-01

    Leptospirosis is highly endemic in the Philippines and a serious concern to public health. Local research on candidate vaccine is moving through the development pipeline. The availability of vaccines alone does not guarantee acceptance because individuals' vaccination choice decision is influenced by several factors. This study assessed how vaccine attributes and socio-demographic factors affect the acceptability of leptospirosis vaccine; and estimated individuals' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. A discrete choice experiment was conducted among leptospirosis and non-leptospirosis case respondents (n = 342) living in Metro Manila. Random Parameters Logit model was used to estimate the relative importance of vaccine attributes and socio-demographic variables on respondents' leptospirosis vaccination choice decision. The estimated model coefficients were used to derive implicit prices and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. Both case respondents preferred leptospirosis vaccine with 70-100% efficacy, mild to moderate risk of side-effects, given in a single shot, and at a lower price. Non-leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 7 to 10 y of protection, while leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 10 y protection. The probability of leptospirosis vaccination acceptance was affected by respondents' age, education, family size and income, proximity of home to rivers and sewers, and leptospirosis awareness level. Respondents' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine (US$ 31.14-US$ 65.89) was higher than the Japanese retail price (US$ 21.60-US$ 24.00). Our findings indicated significant potential for introducing leptospirosis vaccine in the Philippine vaccine market. Delivery strategies to ensure equitable access to future leptospirosis vaccine are recommended.

  8. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

    2017-01-01

    Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  9. ARAC: Alternative Route to Administrative Certification. A New Model for Administrator Certification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Jeffrey B.; Ashby, Dianne; Azinger, Al; Klass, Patricia H.

    Alternative routes to administrator certification may provide many benefits to states and school districts unable to fill critical public school administrative positions. Such programs can appeal to qualified individuals outside of education, as well as those persons unable or unwilling to progress through a traditional program of study. To be…

  10. Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2016-12-30

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  11. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and erosion issues in hydrology: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, B.; Moussa, R.

    2015-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and erosion equations, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS, Saint-Venant: SV or Approximations of Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 second to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m), flow typology (Overland: O, High gradient: Hg, Bedforms: B, Fluvial: F) and dimensionless numbers (Dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, Slope S, Inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics, cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements, identifying then flow typology a secondary but mattering determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, that prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help each modeller positioning his (her) choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  12. The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

    2017-05-01

    By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices.

  13. Model of traffic access mode and railway station choice of suburban railway system in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor RAK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the establishment of a model of understanding the access mode and railway station choice of Slovenian passengers. Therefore, a model has been designed to predict the determination of existing decision making preferences of railway users about the access mode and railway station choice with a stated preference survey and face to face method. The target group in the survey were railway passengers in the suburban environment that use the rail for work and school purposes. The total number of respondents was 412. The survey showed that most passengers access the railway station with car (60,2%, by foot (26,2%, with public transport (bus – 8,3% and with bike (5,3%. Average distance to the station is 4,9 km, average time of access is 10,5 min. Upon exit most passengers walk to the final destination (84,5%, use the public transport (bus – 14,1%, car (1,2% or bike (0,2%. Average time from exit of the train to final destination is 13,1 min, average distance is 1,58 km.

  14. Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunert, Megan L.

    Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

  15. Development and application of a human PBPK model for bromodichloromethane to investigate the impacts of multi-route exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyon, Elaina M; Eklund, Christopher; Leavens, Teresa; Pegram, Rex A

    2016-09-01

    As a result of its presence in water as a volatile disinfection byproduct, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), which is mutagenic, poses a potential health risk from exposure via oral, dermal and inhalation routes. We developed a refined human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for BDCM (including new chemical-specific human parameters) to evaluate the impact of BDCM exposure during showering and bathing on important measures of internal dose compared with oral exposure. The refined model adequately predicted data from the published literature for oral, dermal and bathing/showering exposures. A liter equivalency approach (L-eq) was used to estimate BDCM concentration in a liter of water consumed by the oral route that would be required to produce the same internal dose of BDCM resulting from a 20-min bath or a 10-min shower in water containing 10 µg l(-1) BDCM. The oral liter equivalent concentrations for the bathing scenario were 605, 803 and 5 µg l(-1) BDCM for maximum venous blood concentration (Cmax), the area under the curve (AUCv) and the amount metabolized in the liver per hour (MBDCM), respectively. For a 10-min showering exposure, the oral L-eq concentrations were 282, 312 and 2.1 µg l(-1) for Cmax, AUC and MBDCM, respectively. These results demonstrate large contributions of dermal and inhalation exposure routes to the internal dose of parent chemical reaching the systemic circulation, which could be transformed to mutagenic metabolites in extrahepatic target tissues. Thus, consideration of the contribution of multiple routes of exposure when evaluating risks from water-borne BDCM is needed, and this refined human model will facilitate improved assessment of internal doses from real-world exposures. Published 2015. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

  16. Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uggeldahl, Kennet; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark;

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...... attention between the alternatives in a choice set reflects their stated choice certainty. Based on one of the largest samples of eye tracking data in a DCE to date, we find evidence in favor of our hypothesis. We also link eye tracking observations to model-based choice certainty through parameterization...... of the scale function in a random parameters logit model. We find that choices characterized by more frequent gaze shifting do indeed exhibit a higher degree of error variance, however, this effects is insignificant once response time is controlled for. Overall, findings suggest that eye tracking can provide...

  17. 部队铁路输送路线优选模型%Military Railway Transportation Route Optimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王涛; 郑垣模; 王月琴

    2012-01-01

    紧贴部队实际,结合现代铁路运输条件,分析部队铁路输送的有关要求,在此基础上建立部队铁路输送路线优选模型,从而实现部队铁路输送路线的优选,为拟制铁路输送计划提供决策依据。%Actual to troops, combined with modern conditions of railway transportation of military railway transport,analysis of the rel- evant requirements,set up on the basis of military railway transportation route optimization model,in order to achieve military railway trans portation route optimization for railway transport plan, to provide basis for decision making.

  18. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Estimating health state utility values from discrete choice experiments--a QALY space model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yuanyuan; Norman, Richard; Viney, Rosalie

    2014-09-01

    Using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimate health state utility values has become an important alternative to the conventional methods of Time Trade-Off and Standard Gamble. Studies using DCEs have typically used the conditional logit to estimate the underlying utility function. The conditional logit is known for several limitations. In this paper, we propose two types of models based on the mixed logit: one using preference space and the other using quality-adjusted life year (QALY) space, a concept adapted from the willingness-to-pay literature. These methods are applied to a dataset collected using the EQ-5D. The results showcase the advantages of using QALY space and demonstrate that the preferred QALY space model provides lower estimates of the utility values than the conditional logit, with the divergence increasing with worsening health states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.