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Sample records for modeling route choice

  1. Route Choice Model Based on Game Theory for Commuters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Licai Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The traffic behaviours of commuters may cause traffic congestion during peak hours. Advanced Traffic Information System can provide dynamic information to travellers. Due to the lack of timeliness and comprehensiveness, the provided information cannot satisfy the travellers’ needs. Since the assumptions of traditional route choice model based on Expected Utility Theory conflict with the actual situation, a route choice model based on Game Theory is proposed to provide reliable route choice to commuters in actual situation in this paper. The proposed model treats the alternative routes as game players and utilizes the precision of predicted information and familiarity of traffic condition to build a game. The optimal route can be generated considering Nash Equilibrium by solving the route choice game. Simulations and experimental analysis show that the proposed model can describe the commuters’ routine route choice decisionexactly and the provided route is reliable.

  2. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

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    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  3. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

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    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  4. Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

  5. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    in the estimation of route choice models of public transport users based upon observed choices. Public transport route choice models have not benefitted from the same technological enhancements as car models because of the necessity (i) to collect additional information concerning lines and transfers, and (ii...... modes, public transport modes, lines, transfers, egress modes) is large. This thesis proposes a doubly stochastic approach for generating alternative routes that are relevant to travellers, since the method allows accounting for both perceived costs of the network elements and heterogeneity......The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...

  6. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments......Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...... modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation...

  7. Modeling route choice criteria from home to major streets: A discrete choice approach

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    Jose Osiris Vidana-Bencomo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A discrete choice model that consists of three sub-models was developed to investigates the route choice criteria of drivers who travel from their homes in the morning to the access point along the major streets that bound the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs. The first sub-model is a Nested Logit Model (NLM that estimates the probability of a driver has or has no multiple routes, and if the driver has multiple routes, the route selection criteria are based on the access point’s intersection control type or other factors. The second sub-model is a Mixed Logit (MXL model. It estimates the probabilities of the type of intersection control preferred by a driver. The third sub-model is a NLM that estimates the probabilities of a driver selecting his/her route for its shortest travel time or to avoid pedestrian, and if the aim is to take the fastest route, the decision criteria is based on the shortest distance or minimum stops and turns. Data gathered in a questionnaire survey were used to estimate the sub-models. The attributes of the utility functions of the sub-models are the driver’s demographic and trip characteristics. The model provides a means for transportation planners to distribute the total number of home-based trips generated within a TAZ to the access points along the major streets that bound the TAZ.

  8. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    not account for individual-related spatiotemporal constraints. This paper reduces the gap by proposing a route choice model incorporating spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits. The proposed approach combines stochastic route generation with a latent variable semi-compensatory model representing......A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...

  9. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  10. Analyzing multiday route choice behavior of commuters using GPS data

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    Wenyun Tang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, accurate global position system and geographic information system data were employed to reveal multiday routes people used and to study multiday route choice behavior for the same origin–destination trips, from home to work. A new way of thinking about route choice modeling is provided in this study. Travelers are classified into three kinds based on the deviation between actual routes and the shortest travel time paths. Based on the classification, a two-stage route choice process is proposed, in which the first step is to classify the travelers and the second one is to model route choice behavior. After analyzing the characteristics of different types of travelers, an artificial neural network was adopted to classify travelers and model route choice behavior. An empirical study using global position systems data collected in Minneapolis–St Paul metropolitan area was carried out. It finds that most travelers follow the same route during commute trips on successive days. And different types of travelers have a significant difference in route choice property. The modeling results indicate that neural network framework can classify travelers and model route choice well.

  11. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  12. Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

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    pengcheng yuan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

  13. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

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    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  14. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

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    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  15. Deduction of passengers' route choice from smart card data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Der Hurk, Evelien; Kroon, Leo; Maroti, Gabor; Vervest, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Deducing passengers' route choice from smart card data provides public transport operators the opportunity to evaluate passenger service. Especially in case of disruptions when route choice models may not be valid this is an advantage. This paper proposes a method for deducing the chosen route of

  16. Latent variables and route choice behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior...... and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers’ observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation...

  17. Deduction of passengers' route choices from smart card data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hurk, E.; Kroon, L.G.; Maroti, G.; Vervest, P.

    2015-01-01

    Deducing passengers' route choices from smart card data provides public transport operators the opportunity to evaluate and improve their passenger service. Particularly in the case of disruptions, when traditional route choice models may not be valid, this is an advantage. This paper proposes a

  18. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  19. Expanding the applicability of random regret minimization for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    The discrete choice paradigm of random regret minimization (RRM) has been recently proposed in several choice contexts. In the route choice context, the paradigm has been used to model the choice among three routes and to formulate regret-based stochastic user equilibrium. However, in the same co...

  20. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against

  1. Latent factors and route choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    . A reliable dataset was prepared through measures of internal consistency and sampling adequacy, and data were analyzed with a proper application of factor analysis to the route choice context. For the dataset obtained from the survey, six latent constructs affecting driver behaviour were extracted and scores...... on each factor for each survey participant were calculated. Path generation algorithms were examined with respect to observed behaviour, through a measure of reproduction with deterministic techniques of the routes indicated in the answers to the survey. Results presented evidence that the majority...... and Link Nested Logit. Estimates were produced from model specifications that considered level-of-service, label and facility dummy variables. Moreover, a modelling framework was designed to represent drivers’ choices as affected by the latent constructs extracted with factor analysis. Previous experience...

  2. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because......,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... not only of the in-vehicle times for different public transport modes, but also of the other time components (e.g., access, walking, waiting, transfer) composing the door-to-door experience of using a multimodal public transport network, differentiating by trip length and purpose, and accounting...

  3. An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

    2015-12-01

    Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

  4. Generation and quality assessment of route choice sets in public transport networks by means of RP data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    Literature in route choice modelling shows that a lot of attention has been devoted to route choices of car drivers, but much less attention has been dedicated to route choices of public transport users. As modelling route choice behaviour consists of generating relevant routes and estimating...... discrete choice models, this paper focuses on the issue of choice set generation in public transport networks. Specifically, this paper describes the generation of choice sets for users of the Greater Copenhagen public transport system by applying a doubly stochastic path generation algorithm...

  5. A study of driver's route choice behavior based on evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaowei; Ji, Yanjie; Du, Muqing; Deng, Wei

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers' route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver's route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver's route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

  6. A Study of Driver’s Route Choice Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaowei Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers’ route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver’s route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver’s route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

  7. Air Cargo Transportation Route Choice Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obashi, Hiroshi; Kim, Tae-Seung; Oum, Tae Hoon

    2003-01-01

    Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

  8. A Joint Route Choice Model for Electric and Conventional Car Users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    Introduction Worldwide, governments have committed to reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. With a higher share of renewable sources in the electricity production, battery electric cars (EVs) could play a significant role in maintaining these commitments. Growing literature shows...... an increasing interest in EVs and their market, but current EV travel demand studies are usually based on data collected from users of conventional gasoline or diesel engine cars (CVs) (see e.g. (Golob and Gould 1998; Pearre et al. 2011; Greaves et al. 2014). EVs are however different from CVs in a number...... effects, such as effects on the electricity network and the transport network. The objective of this study is to use revealed preferences (RP) data to investigate differences in route choice behaviour between CV and EV users. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a state-of-the-art route choice...

  9. Efficiency of Choice Set Generation Methods for Bicycle Routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; W. Axhausen, Kay

    behaviour, observed choices and alternatives composing the choice set of each cyclist are necessary. However, generating the alternative choice sets can prove challenging. This paper analyses the efficiency of various choice set generation methods for bicycle routes in order to contribute to our...... travelling information with GPS loggers, compared to self-reported RP data, is more accurate geographic locations and routes. Also, the GPS traces give more reliable information on times and prevent trip underreporting, and it is possible to collect information on many trips by the same person without...

  10. Influence of the Built Environment on Pedestrian Route Choices of Adolescent Girls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Merlin, Louis; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We examined the influence of the built environment on pedestrian route selection among adolescent girls. Portable global positioning system units, accelerometers, and travel diaries were used to identify the origin, destination, and walking routes of girls in San Diego, California, and Minneapolis...... of route choice. Shorter distance had the strongest positive association with route choice, whereas the presence of a greenway or trail, higher safety, presence of sidewalks, and availability of destinations along a route were also consistently positively associated with route choice at both sites...

  11. An advanced traveler navigation system adapted to route choice preferences of the individual users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahyar Amirgholy

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The majority of existing navigation systems only account for a single aspect of the route choice, like travel time or distance, in finding the optimal route for the trips in the network. In this research, we first identify a range of diverse factors that travelers take into account in their route choice decision in the network. A stated preference survey is conducted to show the heterogeneity in the preferences of users and its dependence to the purpose of the trips over the weekdays and weekends. Interestingly, results of the survey show that road safety is the most influential factor in the route choice decision of the average participants over weekends, exceeding even the travel time, and participants give more importance to the scenic quality of the routes for their weekend trips in comparison to their weekday trips. The results of the second part of the survey also indicate that in 27% of the cases participants choose routes other than the ones suggested by navigation systems, and 33% of the times that they take the suggested routes, they modify these routes according to their own preferences. The partial inability of existing navigation systems to suggest the routes that match the preferences of users can be attributed to ignoring (1 the diversity in influential factors and (2 the heterogeneity in preferences of the users by these systems. We propose a dynamic mixed logit route choice model to include the effects of information and learning to estimate parameters of a multivariable utility function for individual users based on their own historical route choice data over time. Finally, we present the concept of a smart navigation system that can gather the required information from real-time and online sources to suggest the routes that best match the users’ own preferences.

  12. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Effects of the Emission Cost on Route Choices of International Container Ships

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    Hyangsook Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Maritime freight shipping has increased significantly and air pollution from international ships has grown accordingly, having serious environmental effects all over the world. This paper analyzes the effects of the emission cost on ocean route choices, focusing on international container ships. First, the paper formulates a freight network model that captures decisions and interactions of ocean carriers and port terminal operators in the maritime freight transport system. Then, the emission cost is calculated based on an activity-based approach as a component of the ocean transportation cost function. A case study is examined to find if the emission cost affects ocean route choices. The results indicate that the optimal ocean route and transportation cost are changed distinctively due to the emission cost. The research discusses how the emission cost plays a role in route changes and why ocean carriers have to consider these costs in their routing decisions.

  14. Children's route choice during active transportation to school: Difference between shortest and actual route

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dessing, D.; Vries, S.I. de; Hegeman, G.; Verhagen, E.; Mechelen, W. van; Pierik, F.H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study is to increase our understanding of environmental correlates that are associated with route choice during active transportation to school (ATS) by comparing characteristics of actual walking and cycling routes between home and school with the shortest possible

  15. Exploring en-route parking type and parking-search route choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Sholomo

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the first phase of an on-going research investigating the joint choice of parking type, parking facility and cruising-for-parking route. The importance of this issue derives from the significant share of cruising-for-parking traffic in urban areas, the relevance of parking po...

  16. A user equilibrium, traffic assignment model of network route and parking lot choice, with search circuits and cruising flows

    OpenAIRE

    LEURENT, Fabien; BOUJNAH, Houda

    2014-01-01

    The paper provides a novel network model of parking and route choice. Parking supply is represented by parking type, management strategy including the fare, capacity and occupancy rate of parking lot, and network location, in relation to access routes along the roadway network. Trip demand is segmented according to origin-destination pair, the disposal of private parking facilities and the individual preferences for parking quality of service. Each traveller is assumed to make a two stage cho...

  17. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  18. Analysis of inertial choice behaviour based expected and experienced savings from a real-world route choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, J.D.; Rakha, H.; Van Berkum, E.; Van Arem, B.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of route choice, inertial behaviour shows that drivers make choices that are satisfactory rather than optimal. Consequently, drivers may not necessarily alter their choice when confronted with a travel time increase on the current choice or a travel time decrease of a choice

  19. Analysis of inertia thresholds based on real-world route choice data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    In the context of route choice, inertial behaviour shows that drivers make choices that are satisfactory rather than optimal. Consequently, drivers may not necessarily alter their choice when confronted with a travel time increase on the current choice or a travel time decrease of a choice

  20. Route Choice in Subway Station during Morning Peak Hours: A Case of Guangzhou Subway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at crowding phenomenon in the subway. As passengers are inclined to choose the route with minimum disutility, we put forward a route choice model which is constructed to achieve minimum objective function of feasibility for the optimal solution. Meanwhile we set passenger volume threshold values according to capacity of facilities. In the case of actual capacity exceeding the threshold, the decision node of constrained route will be selected; computing procedure about searching decision points will be presented. Then we should set rational restrictions at the decision node of the minimum utility function route to prevent too many passengers’ access to platform. Through certification, this series of methods can effectively ensure the safety of the station efficient operation.

  1. Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

  2. DATA-ORIENTED ALGORITHM FOR ROUTE CHOICE SET GENERATION IN A METROPOLITAN AREA WITH MOBILE PHONE GPS DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Nakamura

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, for the estimation of traffic demand or people flow, modelling route choice activity in road networks is an important task and many algorithms have been developed to generate route choice sets. However, developing an algorithm based on a small amount of data that can be applied generally within a metropolitan area is difficult. This is because the characteristics of road networks vary widely. On the other hand, recently, the collection of people movement data has lately become much easier, especially through mobile phones. Lately, most mobile phones include GPS functionality. Given this background, we propose a data-oriented algorithm to generate route choice sets using mobile phone GPS data. GPS data contain a number of measurement errors; hence, they must be adjusted to account for these errors before use in advanced people movement analysis. However, this is time-consuming and expensive, because an enormous amount of daily data can be obtained. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an algorithm that can easily manage GPS data. Specifically, at first movement data from all GPS data are selected by calculating the speed. Next, the nearest roads in the road network are selected from the GPS location and count such data for each road. Then An algorithm based on the GSP (Gateway Shortest Path algorithm is proposed, which searches the shortest path through a given gateway. In the proposed algorithm, the road for which the utilization volume calculated by GPS data is large is selected as the gateway. Thus, route choice sets that are based on trends in real GPS data are generated. To evaluate the proposed method, GPS data from 0.7 million people a year in Japan and DRM (Digital Road Map as the road network are used. DRM is one of the most detailed road networks in Japan. Route choice sets using the proposed algorithm are generated and the cover rate of the utilization volume of each road under evaluation is calculated. As a

  3. Understanding individual routing behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Antonio; Stanojevic, Rade; Papagiannaki, Dina; Rodriguez, Pablo; González, Marta C

    2016-03-01

    Knowing how individuals move between places is fundamental to advance our understanding of human mobility (González et al. 2008 Nature 453, 779-782. (doi:10.1038/nature06958)), improve our urban infrastructure (Prato 2009 J. Choice Model. 2, 65-100. (doi:10.1016/S1755-5345(13)70005-8)) and drive the development of transportation systems. Current route-choice models that are used in transportation planning are based on the widely accepted assumption that people follow the minimum cost path (Wardrop 1952 Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. 1, 325-362. (doi:10.1680/ipeds.1952.11362)), despite little empirical support. Fine-grained location traces collected by smart devices give us today an unprecedented opportunity to learn how citizens organize their travel plans into a set of routes, and how similar behaviour patterns emerge among distinct individual choices. Here we study 92 419 anonymized GPS trajectories describing the movement of personal cars over an 18-month period. We group user trips by origin-destination and we find that most drivers use a small number of routes for their routine journeys, and tend to have a preferred route for frequent trips. In contrast to the cost minimization assumption, we also find that a significant fraction of drivers' routes are not optimal. We present a spatial probability distribution that bounds the route selection space within an ellipse, having the origin and the destination as focal points, characterized by high eccentricity independent of the scale. While individual routing choices are not captured by path optimization, their spatial bounds are similar, even for trips performed by distinct individuals and at various scales. These basic discoveries can inform realistic route-choice models that are not based on optimization, having an impact on several applications, such as infrastructure planning, routing recommendation systems and new mobility solutions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  4. The QKD network: model and routing scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chao; Zhang, Hongqi; Su, Jinhai

    2017-11-01

    Quantum key distribution (QKD) technology can establish unconditional secure keys between two communicating parties. Although this technology has some inherent constraints, such as the distance and point-to-point mode limits, building a QKD network with multiple point-to-point QKD devices can overcome these constraints. Considering the development level of current technology, the trust relaying QKD network is the first choice to build a practical QKD network. However, the previous research didn't address a routing method on the trust relaying QKD network in detail. This paper focuses on the routing issues, builds a model of the trust relaying QKD network for easily analysing and understanding this network, and proposes a dynamical routing scheme for this network. From the viewpoint of designing a dynamical routing scheme in classical network, the proposed scheme consists of three components: a Hello protocol helping share the network topology information, a routing algorithm to select a set of suitable paths and establish the routing table and a link state update mechanism helping keep the routing table newly. Experiments and evaluation demonstrates the validity and effectiveness of the proposed routing scheme.

  5. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  6. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  7. A Two-Phase Heuristic Algorithm for the Common Frequency Routing Problem with Vehicle Type Choice in the Milk Run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Lin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available High frequency and small lot size are characteristics of milk runs and are often used to implement the just-in-time (JIT strategy in logistical systems. The common frequency problem, which simultaneously involves planning of the route and frequency, has been extensively researched in milk run systems. In addition, vehicle type choice in the milk run system also has a significant influence on the operating cost. Therefore, in this paper, we simultaneously consider vehicle routing planning, frequency planning, and vehicle type choice in order to optimize the sum of the cost of transportation, inventory, and dispatch. To this end, we develop a mathematical model to describe the common frequency problem with vehicle type choice. Since the problem is NP hard, we develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm to solve the model. More specifically, an initial satisfactory solution is first generated through a greedy heuristic algorithm to maximize the ratio of the superior arc frequency to the inferior arc frequency. Following this, a tabu search (TS with limited search scope is used to improve the initial satisfactory solution. Numerical examples with different sizes establish the efficacy of our model and our proposed algorithm.

  8. Elementary students' evacuation route choice in a classroom: A questionnaire-based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Song, Ziqi

    2018-02-01

    Children evacuation is a critical but challenging issue. Unfortunately, existing researches fail to effectively describe children evacuation, which is likely due to the lack of experimental and empirical data. In this paper, a questionnaire-based experiment was conducted with children aged 8-12 years to study children route choice behavior during evacuation from in a classroom with two exits. 173 effective questionnaires were collected and the corresponding data were analyzed. From the statistical results, we obtained the following findings: (1) position, congestion, group behavior, and backtracking behavior have significant effects on children route choice during evacuation; (2) age only affects children backtracking behavior, and (3) no prominent effects based on gender and guidance were observed. The above findings may help engineers design some effective evacuation strategies for children.

  9. A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

  10. Buffer Management and Hybrid Probability Choice Routing for Packet Delivery in Opportunistic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daru Pan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the features of long connection delays, frequent network partitions, and topology unsteadiness, the design of opportunistic networks faces the challenge of how to effectively deliver data based only on occasional encountering of nodes, where the conventional routing schemes do not work properly. This paper proposes a hybrid probability choice routing protocol with buffer management for opportunistic networks. A delivery probability function is set up based on continuous encounter duration time, which is used for selecting a better node to relay packets. By combining the buffer management utility and the delivery probability, a total utility is used to decide whether the packet should be kept in the buffer or be directly transmitted to the encountering node. Simulation results show that the proposed routing outperforms the existing one in terms of the delivery rate and the average delay.

  11. Mean Velocity Prediction Information Feedback Strategy in Two-Route Systems under ATIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianqiang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Feedback contents of previous information feedback strategies in advanced traveler information systems are almost real-time traffic information. Compared with real-time information, prediction traffic information obtained by a reliable and effective prediction algorithm has many undisputable advantages. In prediction information environment, a traveler is prone to making a more rational route-choice. For these considerations, a mean velocity prediction information feedback strategy (MVPFS is presented. The approach adopts the autoregressive-integrated moving average model (ARIMA to forecast short-term traffic flow. Furthermore, prediction results of mean velocity are taken as feedback contents and displayed on a variable message sign to guide travelers' route-choice. Meanwhile, discrete choice model (Logit model is selected to imitate more appropriately travelers' route-choice behavior. In order to investigate the performance of MVPFS, a cellular automaton model with ARIMA is adopted to simulate a two-route scenario. The simulation shows that such innovative prediction feedback strategy is feasible and efficient. Even more importantly, this study demonstrates the excellence of prediction feedback ideology.

  12. Route-external and route-internal landmarks in route descriptions : Effects of route length and map design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westerbeek, Hans; Maes, Alfons

    2013-01-01

    Landmarks are basic ingredients in route descriptions. They often mark choice points: locations where travellers choose from different options how to continue the route. This study focuses on one of the loose ends in the taxonomy of landmarks. In a memory-based production experiment in which

  13. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    udgave af SUE, der rummer to typer stokastiske faktorer - den ene beskriver trafikanters 'oplevede' rejsemodstande på stræknings-niveauet (som i den traditionelle SUE), mens den anden beskriver forskelle i trafikanternes præferen-cer. Denne model har vist sig at give en mere realistisk beskrivelse af...

  14. Truck Route Choice Modeling using Large Streams of GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-31

    The primary goal of this research was to use large streams of truck-GPS data to analyze travel routes (or paths) chosen by freight trucks to travel between different origin and destination (OD) location pairs in metropolitan regions of Florida. Two s...

  15. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...

  16. Highway and interline transportation routing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.

    1994-01-01

    The potential impacts associated with the transportation of hazardous materials are important issues to shippers, carriers, and the general public. Since transportation routes are a central characteristic in most of these issues, the prediction of likely routes is the first step toward the resolution of these issues. In addition, US Department of Transportation requirements (HM-164) mandate specific routes for shipments of highway controlled quantities of radioactive materials. In response to these needs, two routing models have been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). These models have been designated by DOE's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, Transportation Management Division (DOE/EM) as the official DOE routing models. Both models, HIGHWAY and INTERLINE, are described

  17. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Frieler, K.; Schewe, J.; Ostberg, S.; Willner, S. N.; Schauberger, B.; Gosling, S.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Portmann, F. T.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hanasaki, N.; Biemans, H.; Gerten, D.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Stacke, T.; Ciais, P.; Chang, J.; Ducharne, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Wada, Y.; Kim, H.; Yamazaki, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  18. Solving a bi-objective vehicle routing problem under uncertainty by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Yousefi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW is an important problem with many real applications in a transportation problem. The optimum set of routes with the minimum distance and vehicles used is determined to deliver goods from a central depot, using a vehicle with capacity constraint. In the real cases, there are other objective functions that should be considered. This paper considers not only the minimum distance and the number of vehicles used as the objective function, the customer’s satisfaction with the priority of customers is also considered. Additionally, it presents a new model for a bi-objective VRPTW solved by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach, in which the decision maker determines optimistic aspiration levels for each objective function. Two meta-heuristic methods, namely simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA, are proposed to solve large-sized problems. Moreover, the experimental design is used to tune the parameters of the proposed algorithms. The presented model is verified by a real-world case study and a number of test problems. The computational results verify the efficiency of the proposed SA and GA.

  19. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  20. Modeling the Equilibrium Bus Line Choice Behavior and Transit System Design with Oblivious Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-Lin Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of transportation literature, users are assumed to be perfectly rational in minimizing their own travel costs or perceived travel costs. However, users may not be perfectly rational in implementing their choices in reality. There exists a kind of boundedly rational users, that is, oblivious users. These oblivious users make their route choices by simple criteria, for example, selecting the shortest (or the most direct route only based on physical distance or simply following routes recommended by a GPS system. This paper investigates how the existence of oblivious users affects the equilibrium bus line choice behavior in a public transit system. And we propose a method to design a more realistic system.

  1. Deadlock Avoidance Policy in Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks with Free Choice Resource Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanna Ballal

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Efficient control schemes are required for effective cooperation of robot teams in a mobile wireless sensor network. If the robots (resources are also in charge of executing multiple simultaneous missions, then risks of deadlocks due to the presence of shared resources among different missions increase and have to be tackled. Discrete event control with deadlock avoidance has been used in the past for robot team coordination for the case of multi reentrant flowline models with shared resources. In this paper we present an analysis of deadlock avoidance for a generalized case of multi reentrant flow line systems (MRF called the Free Choice Multi Reentrant Flow Line systems (FMRF. In FMRF, some tasks have multiple resource choices; hence routing decisions have to be made and current results in deadlock avoidance for MRF do not hold. This analysis is based on the so-called Circular Waits (CW of the resources in the system. For FMRF, the well known notions of Critical Siphons and Critical Subsystems must be generalized and we redefine these objects for such systems. Our second contribution provides a matrix formulation that efficiently computes the objects required for deadlock avoidance in FMRF systems. A MAXWIP dispatching policy is formulated for deadlock avoidance in FMRF systems. According to this policy, deadlock in FMRF is avoided by limiting the work in progress (WIP in the critical subsystems of each CW. Implemented results of the proposed scheme in a WSN test-bed is presented in the paper.

  2. Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) MACHETE Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segui, John S.; Jennings, Esther H.; Clare, Loren P.

    2013-01-01

    Contact Graph Routing (CGR) for Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) space-based networks makes use of the predictable nature of node contacts to make real-time routing decisions given unpredictable traffic patterns. The contact graph will have been disseminated to all nodes before the start of route computation. CGR was designed for space-based networking environments where future contact plans are known or are independently computable (e.g., using known orbital dynamics). For each data item (known as a bundle in DTN), a node independently performs route selection by examining possible paths to the destination. Route computation could conceivably run thousands of times a second, so computational load is important. This work refers to the simulation software model of Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) for DTN Bundle Protocol in JPL's MACHETE simulation tool. The simulation model was used for performance analysis of CGR and led to several performance enhancements. The simulation model was used to demonstrate the improvements of ECGR over CGR as well as other routing methods in space network scenarios. ECGR moved to using earliest arrival time because it is a global monotonically increasing metric that guarantees the safety properties needed for the solution's correctness since route re-computation occurs at each node to accommodate unpredicted changes (e.g., traffic pattern, link quality). Furthermore, using earliest arrival time enabled the use of the standard Dijkstra algorithm for path selection. The Dijkstra algorithm for path selection has a well-known inexpensive computational cost. These enhancements have been integrated into the open source CGR implementation. The ECGR model is also useful for route metric experimentation and comparisons with other DTN routing protocols particularly when combined with MACHETE's space networking models and Delay Tolerant Link State Routing (DTLSR) model.

  3. Indoor Semantic Modelling for Routing: The Two-Level Routing Approach for Indoor Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Liu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Humans perform many activities indoors and they show a growing need for indoor navigation, especially in unfamiliar buildings such as airports, museums and hospitals. Complexity of such buildings poses many challenges for building managers and visitors. Indoor navigation services play an important role in supporting these indoor activities. Indoor navigation covers extensive topics such as: 1 indoor positioning and localization; 2 indoor space representation for navigation model generation; 3 indoor routing computation; 4 human wayfinding behaviours; and 5 indoor guidance (e.g., textual directories. So far, a large number of studies of pedestrian indoor navigation have presented diverse navigation models and routing algorithms/methods. However, the major challenge is rarely referred to: how to represent the complex indoor environment for pedestrians and conduct routing according to the different roles and sizes of users. Such complex buildings contain irregular shapes, large open spaces, complicated obstacles and different types of passages. A navigation model can be very complicated if the indoors are accurately represented. Although most research demonstrates feasible indoor navigation models and related routing methods in regular buildings, the focus is still on a general navigation model for pedestrians who are simplified as circles. In fact, pedestrians represent different sizes, motion abilities and preferences (e.g., described in user profiles, which should be reflected in navigation models and be considered for indoor routing (e.g., relevant Spaces of Interest and Points of Interest. In order to address this challenge, this thesis proposes an innovative indoor modelling and routing approach – two-level routing. It specially targets the case of routing in complex buildings for distinct users. The conceptual (first level uses general free indoor spaces: this is represented by the logical network whose nodes represent the spaces and edges

  4. Bicriterion a priori route choice in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Andersen, Kim Allan; Pretolani, Daniele

    In recent years there has been a growing interest in using stochastic time-dependent (STD) networks as a modelling tool for a number of applications within such areas as transportation and telecommunications. It is known that an optimal routing policy does not necessarily correspond to a path...

  5. Bicriterion a priori route choice in stochastic time-dependent networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Pretolani, D; Andersen, K A

    2006-01-01

    In recent years there has been a growing interest in using stochastic time-dependent (STD) networks as a modelling tool for a number of applications within such areas as transportation and telecommunications. It is known that an optimal routing policy does not necessarily correspond to a path...

  6. Indoor 3D Route Modeling Based On Estate Spatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Wen, Y.; Jiang, J.; Huang, W.

    2014-04-01

    Indoor three-dimensional route model is essential for space intelligence navigation and emergency evacuation. This paper is motivated by the need of constructing indoor route model automatically and as far as possible. By comparing existing building data sources, this paper firstly explained the reason why the estate spatial management data is chosen as the data source. Then, an applicable method of construction three-dimensional route model in a building is introduced by establishing the mapping relationship between geographic entities and their topological expression. This data model is a weighted graph consist of "node" and "path" to express the spatial relationship and topological structure of a building components. The whole process of modelling internal space of a building is addressed by two key steps: (1) each single floor route model is constructed, including path extraction of corridor using Delaunay triangulation algorithm with constrained edge, fusion of room nodes into the path; (2) the single floor route model is connected with stairs and elevators and the multi-floor route model is eventually generated. In order to validate the method in this paper, a shopping mall called "Longjiang New City Plaza" in Nanjing is chosen as a case of study. And the whole building space is constructed according to the modelling method above. By integrating of existing path finding algorithm, the usability of this modelling method is verified, which shows the indoor three-dimensional route modelling method based on estate spatial data in this paper can support indoor route planning and evacuation route design very well.

  7. Capacitated vehicle-routing problem model for scheduled solid waste collection and route optimization using PSO algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, M A; Akhtar, Mahmuda; Begum, R A; Basri, H; Hussain, A; Scavino, Edgar

    2018-01-01

    Waste collection widely depends on the route optimization problem that involves a large amount of expenditure in terms of capital, labor, and variable operational costs. Thus, the more waste collection route is optimized, the more reduction in different costs and environmental effect will be. This study proposes a modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in a capacitated vehicle-routing problem (CVRP) model to determine the best waste collection and route optimization solutions. In this study, threshold waste level (TWL) and scheduling concepts are applied in the PSO-based CVRP model under different datasets. The obtained results from different datasets show that the proposed algorithmic CVRP model provides the best waste collection and route optimization in terms of travel distance, total waste, waste collection efficiency, and tightness at 70-75% of TWL. The obtained results for 1 week scheduling show that 70% of TWL performs better than all node consideration in terms of collected waste, distance, tightness, efficiency, fuel consumption, and cost. The proposed optimized model can serve as a valuable tool for waste collection and route optimization toward reducing socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An adversarial queueing model for online server routing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonifaci, V.

    2007-01-01

    In an online server routing problem, a vehicle or server moves in a network in order to process incoming requests at the nodes. Online server routing problems have been thoroughly studied using competitive analysis. We propose a new model for online server routing, based on adversarial queueing

  9. Reverse stream flow routing by using Muskingum models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Reverse stream flow routing is a procedure that determines the upstream hydrograph given the downstream hydrograph. This paper presents the development of methodology for Muskingum models parameter estimation for reverse stream flow routing. The standard application of the Muskingum models involves calibration ...

  10. Integrating routing decisions in public transportation problems

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Marie E

    2014-01-01

    This book treats three planning problems arising in public railway transportation planning: line planning, timetabling, and delay management, with the objective to minimize passengers’ travel time. While many optimization approaches simplify these problems by assuming that passengers’ route choice is independent of the solution, this book focuses on models which take into account that passengers will adapt their travel route to the implemented planning solution. That is, a planning solution and passengers’ routes are determined and evaluated simultaneously. This work is technically deep, with insightful findings regarding complexity and algorithmic approaches to public transportation problems with integrated passenger routing. It is intended for researchers in the fields of mathematics, computer science, or operations research, working in the field of public transportation from an optimization standpoint. It is also ideal for students who want to gain intuition and experience in doing complexity proofs ...

  11. Ising model for packet routing control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horiguchi, Tsuyoshi; Takahashi, Hideyuki; Hayashi, Keisuke; Yamaguchi, Chiaki

    2004-01-01

    For packet routing control in computer networks, we propose an Ising model which is defined in order to express competition among a queue length and a distance from a node with a packet to its destination node. By introducing a dynamics for a mean-field value of an Ising spin, we show by computer simulations that effective control of packet routing through priority links is possible

  12. Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

    2009-03-01

    We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

  13. Choice of pesticide fate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balderacchi, Matteo; Trevisan, Marco; Vischetti, Costantino

    2006-01-01

    The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested [it

  14. Modeling decisions from experience: How models with a set of parameters for aggregate choices explain individual choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha Sharma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the paradigms (called “sampling paradigm” in judgment and decision-making involves decision-makers sample information before making a final consequential choice. In the sampling paradigm, certain computational models have been proposed where a set of single or distribution parameters is calibrated to the choice proportions of a group of participants (aggregate and hierarchical models. However, currently little is known on how aggregate and hierarchical models would account for choices made by individual participants in the sampling paradigm. In this paper, we test the ability of aggregate and hierarchical models to explain choices made by individual participants. Several models, Ensemble, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, Best Estimation and Simulation Techniques (BEAST, Natural-Mean Heuristic (NMH, and Instance-Based Learning (IBL, had their parameters calibrated to individual choices in a large dataset involving the sampling paradigm. Later, these models were generalized to two large datasets in the sampling paradigm. Results revealed that the aggregate models (like CPT and IBL accounted for individual choices better than hierarchical models (like Ensemble and BEAST upon generalization to problems that were like those encountered during calibration. Furthermore, the CPT model, which relies on differential valuing of gains and losses, respectively, performed better than other models during calibration and generalization on datasets with similar set of problems. The IBL model, relying on recency and frequency of sampled information, and the NMH model, relying on frequency of sampled information, performed better than other models during generalization to a challenging dataset. Sequential analyses of results from different models showed how these models accounted for transitions from the last sample to final choice in human data. We highlight the implications of using aggregate and hierarchical models in explaining individual choices

  15. A model of ant route navigation driven by scene familiarity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart Baddeley

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a model of visually guided route navigation in ants that captures the known properties of real behaviour whilst retaining mechanistic simplicity and thus biological plausibility. For an ant, the coupling of movement and viewing direction means that a familiar view specifies a familiar direction of movement. Since the views experienced along a habitual route will be more familiar, route navigation can be re-cast as a search for familiar views. This search can be performed with a simple scanning routine, a behaviour that ants have been observed to perform. We test this proposed route navigation strategy in simulation, by learning a series of routes through visually cluttered environments consisting of objects that are only distinguishable as silhouettes against the sky. In the first instance we determine view familiarity by exhaustive comparison with the set of views experienced during training. In further experiments we train an artificial neural network to perform familiarity discrimination using the training views. Our results indicate that, not only is the approach successful, but also that the routes that are learnt show many of the characteristics of the routes of desert ants. As such, we believe the model represents the only detailed and complete model of insect route guidance to date. What is more, the model provides a general demonstration that visually guided routes can be produced with parsimonious mechanisms that do not specify when or what to learn, nor separate routes into sequences of waypoints.

  16. Integer Optimization Model for a Logistic System based on Location-Routing Considering Distance and Chosen Route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyasari, Joni; Mawengkang, Herman; Efendi, Syahril

    2018-02-01

    In a distribution network it is important to decide the locations of facilities that impacts not only the profitability of an organization but the ability to serve customers.Generally the location-routing problem is to minimize the overall cost by simultaneously selecting a subset of candidate facilities and constructing a set of delivery routes that satisfy some restrictions. In this paper we impose restriction on the route that should be passed for delivery. We use integer programming model to describe the problem. A feasible neighbourhood search is proposed to solve the result model.

  17. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  18. Effects of competing environmental variables and signage on route-choices in simulated everyday and emergency wayfinding situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar, Elisângela; Rebelo, Francisco; Noriega, Paulo; Duarte, Emília; Mayhorn, Christopher B

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the relative influence of environmental variables (corridor width and brightness) and signage (directional and exit signs), when presented in competition, on participants' route-choices in two situational variables (everyday vs. emergency), during indoor wayfinding in virtual environments. A virtual reality-based methodology was used. Thus, participants attempted to find a room (everyday situation) in a virtual hotel, followed by a fire-related emergency egress (emergency situation). Different behaviours were observed. In the everyday situation, for no-signs condition, participants choose mostly the wider and brighter corridors, suggesting a heavy reliance on the environmental affordances. Conversely, for signs condition, participants mostly complied with signage, suggesting a greater reliance on the signs rather than on the environmental cues. During emergency, without signage, reliance on environmental affordances seems to be affected by the intersection type. In the sign condition, the reliance on environmental affordances that started strong decreases along the egress route.

  19. The optimal choice of medication administration route regarding intravenous, intramuscular, and subcutaneous injection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin JF

    2015-07-01

    governing the choice of injection route. Safety and efficacy must be the preferred principles to be considered (eg, epinephrine should be given intramuscularly during an episode of systemic anaphylaxis. If the safety and efficacy of two injection routes are equivalent, clinicians should consider more about patient preference and pharmacoeconomics because patient preference will ensure optimal treatment adherence and ultimately improve patient experience or satisfaction, while pharmacoeconomic concern will help alleviate nurse shortages and reduce overall health care costs. Besides the principles, the following detailed factors might affect the decision: patient characteristics-related factors (body mass index, age, sex, medical status [eg, renal impairment, comorbidities], personal attitudes toward safety and convenience, past experience, perception of current disease status, health literacy, and socioeconomic status, medication administration-related factors (anatomical site of injection, dose, frequency, formulation characteristics, administration time, indication, flexibility in the route of administration, and health care staff/institution-related factors (knowledge, human resources.Conclusion: This updated review of findings of comparative studies of different injection routes will enrich the knowledge of safe, efficacious, economic, and patient preference-oriented medication administration as well as catching research opportunities in clinical nursing practice.Keywords: administration route, dosage and administration, efficacy, medication safety, patient preference, pharmacoeconomic

  20. A constraints-induced model of park choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stemerding, M.P.; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1999-01-01

    Conjoint choice models have been used widely in the consumer-choice literature as an approach to measure and predict consumer-choice behavior. These models typically assume that consumer preferences and choice rules are independent from any constraints that might impact the behavior of interest.

  1. An inventory location routing model with environmental considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lerhlaly Sanaa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we consider an integrated Inventory Location Routing problem ILRP. The objective is to select depots to open, the routes to perform distribution from the capacitated depots to the clients by a homogeneous fleet of vehicles and over a multi-period planning horizon. To solve the problem, an exact model is designed in order to minimize the total cost (location, routing and inventory and the routing CO2 emissions, while respecting transport and storage constraints for a hazardous material. We have also studied an industrial real case to illustrate the problem.

  2. Tour Route Multiobjective Optimization Design Based on the Tourist Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The question prompted is how to design the tour route to make the tourists get the maximum satisfactions considering the tourists’ demand. The influence factors of the tour route choices of tourists were analyzed and tourists’ behavior characteristics and psychological preferences were regarded as the important influence factors based on the tourist behavioral theories. A questionnaire of tourists’ tour route information and satisfaction degree was carried out. Some information about the scene spot and tourists demand and tour behaviors characteristic such as visit frequency, number of attractions visited was obtained and analyzed. Based on the convey datum, tour routes multiobjective optimization functions were prompted for the tour route design regarding the maximum satisfaction and the minimum tour distance as the optimal objective. The available routes are listed and categorized. Based on the particle swarm optimization model, the priorities of the tour route are calculated and finally the suggestion depth tour route and quick route tour routes are given considering the different tour demands of tourists. The results can offer constructive suggestions on how to design tour routes on the part of tourism enterprises and how to choose a proper tour route on the part of tourists.

  3. "Choice of Air Cargo Transshipment Airport: An Application to Air Cargo Traffic to/from Northeast Asia"

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Ohashi; Tae-Seung Kim; Tae Hoon Oum; Chunyan Yu

    2004-01-01

    Based on a unique data set of 760 air cargo transshipment routings to/from the Northeast Asian region in 2000, this paper applies an aggregate form of multinomial logit model to identify the critical factors influencing air cargo transshipment route choice decisions. The analysis focuses on the trade-off between monetary cost and time cost while considering other variables relevant for choice of transshipment airport. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and ...

  4. A Method for Driving Route Predictions Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a driving route prediction method that is based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM. This method can accurately predict a vehicle’s entire route as early in a trip’s lifetime as possible without inputting origins and destinations beforehand. Firstly, we propose the route recommendation system architecture, where route predictions play important role in the system. Secondly, we define a road network model, normalize each of driving routes in the rectangular coordinate system, and build the HMM to make preparation for route predictions using a method of training set extension based on K-means++ and the add-one (Laplace smoothing technique. Thirdly, we present the route prediction algorithm. Finally, the experimental results of the effectiveness of the route predictions that is based on HMM are shown.

  5. How well do modelled routes to school record the environments children are exposed to?: a cross-sectional comparison of GIS-modelled and GPS-measured routes to school

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background The school journey may make an important contribution to children’s physical activity and provide exposure to food and physical activity environments. Typically, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been used to model assumed routes to school in studies, but these may differ from those actually chosen. We aimed to identify the characteristics of children and their environments that make the modelled route more or less representative of that actually taken. We compared modelled GIS routes and actual Global Positioning Systems (GPS) measured routes in a free-living sample of children using varying travel modes. Methods Participants were 175 13-14 yr old children taking part in the Sport, Physical activity and Eating behaviour: Environmental Determinants in Young people (SPEEDY) study who wore GPS units for up to 7 days. Actual routes to/from school were extracted from GPS data, and shortest routes between home and school along a road network were modelled in a GIS. Differences between them were assessed according to length, percentage overlap, and food outlet exposure using multilevel regression models. Results GIS routes underestimated route length by 21.0% overall, ranging from 6.1% among walkers to 23.2% for bus users. Among pedestrians food outlet exposure was overestimated by GIS routes by 25.4%. Certain characteristics of children and their neighbourhoods that improved the concordance between GIS and GPS route length and overlap were identified. Living in a village raised the odds of increased differences in length (odds ratio (OR) 3.36 (1.32-8.58)), while attending a more urban school raised the odds of increased percentage overlap (OR 3.98 (1.49-10.63)). However none were found for food outlet exposure. Journeys home from school increased the difference between GIS and GPS routes in terms of food outlet exposure, and this measure showed considerable within-person variation. Conclusions GIS modelled routes between home and school were not

  6. HIGHWAY, a transportation routing model: program description and users' manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.; Gibson, S.M.

    1982-12-01

    A computerized transportation routing model has been developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to be used for predicting likely routes for shipping radioactive materials. The HIGHWAY data base is a computerized road atlas containing descriptions of the entire interstate highway system, the federal highway system, and most of the principal state roads. In addition to its prediction of the most likely commercial route, options incorporated in the HIGHWAY model can allow for maximum use of interstate highways or routes that will bypass urbanized areas containing populations > 100,000. The user may also interactively modify the data base to predict routes that bypass any particular state, city, town, or specific highway segment

  7. Optimization Model for Headway of a Suburban Bus Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to relatively low passenger demand, headways of suburban bus route are usually longer than those of urban bus route. Actually it is also difficult to balance the benefits between passengers and operators, subject to the service standards from the government. Hence the headway of a suburban bus route is usually determined on the empirical experience of transport planners. To cope with this problem, this paper proposes an optimization model for designing the headways of suburban bus routes by minimizing the operating and user costs. The user costs take into account both the waiting time cost and the crowding cost. The feasibility and validity of the proposed model are shown by applying it to the Route 206 in Jiangning district, Nanjing city of China. Weightages of passengers’ cost and operating cost are further discussed, considering different passenger flows. It is found that the headway and objective function are affected by the weightages largely.

  8. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  9. Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

    OpenAIRE

    David Levinson; Wei Chen

    2007-01-01

    Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

  10. Human BDCM Mulit-Route PBPK Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data set contains the code for the BDCM human multi-route model written in the programming language acsl. The final published manuscript is provided since it...

  11. Planning Routes Across Economic Terrains: Maximizing Utility, Following Heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hang; Maddula, Soumya V.; Maloney, Laurence T.

    2010-01-01

    We designed an economic task to investigate human planning of routes in landscapes where travel in different kinds of terrain incurs different costs. Participants moved their finger across a touch screen from a starting point to a destination. The screen was divided into distinct kinds of terrain and travel within each kind of terrain imposed a cost proportional to distance traveled. We varied costs and spatial configurations of terrains and participants received fixed bonuses minus the total cost of the routes they chose. We first compared performance to a model maximizing gain. All but one of 12 participants failed to adopt least-cost routes and their failure to do so reduced their winnings by about 30% (median value). We tested in detail whether participants’ choices of routes satisfied three necessary conditions (heuristics) for a route to maximize gain. We report failures of one heuristic for 7 out of 12 participants. Last of all, we modeled human performance with the assumption that participants assign subjective utilities to costs and maximize utility. For 7 out 12 participants, the fitted utility function was an accelerating power function of actual cost and for the remaining 5, a decelerating power function. We discuss connections between utility aggregation in route planning and decision under risk. Our task could be adapted to investigate human strategy and optimality of route planning in full-scale landscapes. PMID:21833269

  12. PLANNING ROUTES ACROSS ECONOMIC TERRAINS: MAXIMIZING UTILITY, FOLLOWING HEURISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang eZhang

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We designed an economic task to investigate human planning of routes in landscapes where travel in different kinds of terrain incurs different costs. Participants moved their finger across a touch screen from a starting point to a destination. The screen was divided into distinct kinds of terrain and travel within each kind of terrain imposed a cost proportional to distance traveled. We varied costs and spatial configurations of terrains and participants received fixed bonuses minus the total cost of the routes they chose. We first compared performance to a model maximizing gain. All but one of 12 participants failed to adopt least-cost routes and their failure to do so reduced their winnings by about 30% (median value. We tested in detail whether participants’ choices of routes satisfied three necessary conditions (heuristics for a route to maximize gain. We report failures of one heuristic for 7 out of 12 participants. Last of all, we modeled human performance with the assumption that participants assign subjective utilities to costs and maximize utility. For 7 out 12 participants, the fitted utility function was an accelerating power function of actual cost and for the remaining 5, a decelerating power function. We discuss connections between utility aggregation in route planning and decision under risk. Our task could be adapted to investigate human strategy and optimality of route planning in full-scale landscapes.

  13. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  14. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    Semicompensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation on satisfaction of criterion thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semicompensatory models assume a purely noncompensatory choice set formation and therefore do not support multinom...

  15. Vertex routing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markovic, D; Gros, C

    2009-01-01

    A class of models describing the flow of information within networks via routing processes is proposed and investigated, concentrating on the effects of memory traces on the global properties. The long-term flow of information is governed by cyclic attractors, allowing to define a measure for the information centrality of a vertex given by the number of attractors passing through this vertex. We find the number of vertices having a nonzero information centrality to be extensive/subextensive for models with/without a memory trace in the thermodynamic limit. We evaluate the distribution of the number of cycles, of the cycle length and of the maximal basins of attraction, finding a complete scaling collapse in the thermodynamic limit for the latter. Possible implications of our results for the information flow in social networks are discussed.

  16. Nonword Reading: Comparing Dual-Route Cascaded and Connectionist Dual-Process Models with Human Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritchard, Stephen C.; Coltheart, Max; Palethorpe, Sallyanne; Castles, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Two prominent dual-route computational models of reading aloud are the dual-route cascaded (DRC) model, and the connectionist dual-process plus (CDP+) model. While sharing similarly designed lexical routes, the two models differ greatly in their respective nonlexical route architecture, such that they often differ on nonword pronunciation. Neither…

  17. Modeling Intercity Mode Choice and Airport Choice in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiabor, Senanu Y.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviati...

  18. HIGHWAY, a transportation routing model: program description and revised users' manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.

    1983-10-01

    A computerized transportation routing model has been developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to be used for predicting likely routes for shipping radioactive materials. The HIGHWAY data base is a computerized road atlas containing descriptions of the entire Interstate System, the federal highway system, and most of the principal state roads. In addition to its prediction of the most likely commercial route, options incorporated in the HIGHWAY model can allow for maximum use of Interstate highways or routes that will bypass urbanized areas containing populations greater than 100,000 persons. The user may also interactively modify the data base to predict routes that bypass any particular state, city, town, or specific highway segment

  19. Map Sensitivity vs. Map Dependency: A Case Study of Subway Maps’ Impact on Passenger Route Choices in Washington DC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Xu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the key assumption in behavioral and transportation planning literature that, when people use a transit system more frequently, they become less dependent on and less sensitive to transit maps in their decision-making. Therefore, according to this assumption, map changes are much less impactful to travel decisions of frequent riders than to that of first-time or new passengers. This assumption—though never empirically validated—has been the major hurdle for transit maps to becoming a planning tool to change passengers’ behavior. This paper examines this assumption using the Washington DC metro map as a case study by conducting a route choice experiment between 30 Origin-Destination (O-D pairs on seven metro map designs. The experiment targets two types of passengers: frequent metro riders through advertisements on a free daily newspaper available at DC metro stations, and general residents in the Washington metropolitan area through Amazon Mechanical Turk, an online crowdsourcing platform. A total of 255 and 371 participants made 2024 and 2960 route choices in the respective experiments. The results show that frequent passengers are in fact more sensitive to subtle changes in map design than general residents who are less likely to be familiar with the metro map and therefore unaffected by map changes presented in the alternative designs. The work disproves the aforementioned assumption and further validates metro maps as an effective planning tool in transit systems.

  20. Route Assessment for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixia Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated route assessment approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper, where various sources of uncertainties are well kept and modeled by cloud theory. Firstly, a systemic criteria framework incorporating models for scoring subcriteria is developed. Then, the cloud model is introduced to represent linguistic variables, and survivability probability histogram of each route is converted into normal clouds by cloud transformation, enabling both randomness and fuzziness in the assessment environment to be managed simultaneously. Finally, a new way to measure the similarity between two normal clouds satisfying reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity, and overlapping is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed route assessment approach outperforms fuzzy logic based assessment approach with regard to feasibility, reliability, and consistency with human thinking.

  1. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  2. Research on Strategy Control of Taxi Carpooling Detour Route under Uncertain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available For the problem of route choice in taxi carpooling detour, considering the uncertainty of traffic and the characteristic of passengers’ noncomplete rationality, an evolutionary game model of taxi carpooling detour route is built, in which prospect theory is introduced and revenue of strategy is replaced by prospect value. The model reflects more really decision-making psychology of passengers. Then the stable strategies of the model are studied, and the influences of detour distance and traffic congestion on detour carpooling success are analyzed, respectively. The results show that when at least one route of which prospect values for two passenger sides are both positive exists, carpooling route can reach an agreement. The route is stable strategy of evolutionary game, and the passengers requiring short travel time tend to select the nondetour route. With the increase of detour distance and traffic congestion rate, the possibility of reaching an agreement decreases gradually; that is, possibility of carpooling failure increases. So taxi carpooling detour is possible under the certain condition, but some measures must be carried out such as constraints of detour distance and mitigation of traffic congestion to improve carpooling success probability. These conclusions have a certain guiding significance to the formulation of taxi carpooling policy.

  3. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    . The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...... in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests...

  4. Modelling the evolution and consequences of mate choice

    OpenAIRE

    Tazzyman, S. J.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis considers the evolution and the consequences of mate choice across a variety of taxa, using game theoretic, population genetic, and quantitative genetic modelling techniques. Part I is about the evolution of mate choice. In chapter 2, a population genetic model shows that mate choice is even beneficial in self-fertilising species such as Saccharomyces yeast. In chapter 3, a game theoretic model shows that female choice will be strongly dependent upon whether the benefi...

  5. a New Model for Fuzzy Personalized Route Planning Using Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadi, S.; Houshyaripour, A. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper proposes a new model for personalized route planning under uncertain condition. Personalized routing, involves different sources of uncertainty. These uncertainties can be raised from user's ambiguity about their preferences, imprecise criteria values and modelling process. The proposed model uses Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation Analytical Hierarchical Process (FLPRAHP) to analyse user's preferences under uncertainty. Routing is a multi-criteria task especially in transportation networks, where the users wish to optimize their routes based on different criteria. However, due to the lake of knowledge about the preferences of different users and uncertainties available in the criteria values, we propose a new personalized fuzzy routing method based on the fuzzy ranking using center of gravity. The model employed FLPRAHP method to aggregate uncertain criteria values regarding uncertain user's preferences while improve consistency with least possible comparisons. An illustrative example presents the effectiveness and capability of the proposed model to calculate best personalize route under fuzziness and uncertainty.

  6. Modeling a four-layer location-routing problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Hamidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Distribution is an indispensable component of logistics and supply chain management. Location-Routing Problem (LRP is an NP-hard problem that simultaneously takes into consideration location, allocation, and vehicle routing decisions to design an optimal distribution network. Multi-layer and multi-product LRP is even more complex as it deals with the decisions at multiple layers of a distribution network where multiple products are transported within and between layers of the network. This paper focuses on modeling a complicated four-layer and multi-product LRP which has not been tackled yet. The distribution network consists of plants, central depots, regional depots, and customers. In this study, the structure, assumptions, and limitations of the distribution network are defined and the mathematical optimization programming model that can be used to obtain the optimal solution is developed. Presented by a mixed-integer programming model, the LRP considers the location problem at two layers, the allocation problem at three layers, the vehicle routing problem at three layers, and a transshipment problem. The mathematical model locates central and regional depots, allocates customers to plants, central depots, and regional depots, constructs tours from each plant or open depot to customers, and constructs transshipment paths from plants to depots and from depots to other depots. Considering realistic assumptions and limitations such as producing multiple products, limited production capacity, limited depot and vehicle capacity, and limited traveling distances enables the user to capture the real world situations.

  7. Revealed Preference Methods for Studying Bicycle Route Choice—A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Pritchard

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available One fundamental aspect of promoting utilitarian bicycle use involves making modifications to the built environment to improve the safety, efficiency and enjoyability of cycling. Revealed preference data on bicycle route choice can assist greatly in understanding the actual behaviour of a highly heterogeneous group of users, which in turn assists the prioritisation of infrastructure or other built environment initiatives. This systematic review seeks to compare the relative strengths and weaknesses of the empirical approaches for evaluating whole journey route choices of bicyclists. Two electronic databases were systematically searched for a selection of keywords pertaining to bicycle and route choice. In total seven families of methods are identified: GPS devices, smartphone applications, crowdsourcing, participant-recalled routes, accompanied journeys, egocentric cameras and virtual reality. The study illustrates a trade-off in the quality of data obtainable and the average number of participants. Future additional methods could include dockless bikeshare, multiple camera solutions using computer vision and immersive bicycle simulator environments.

  8. Eco-routing: More green drivers means more benefits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valdes Serrano, C.; Perez Prada, F.; Monzon de Caceres, A.

    2016-07-01

    Information and Communications Technology (ICT)/Information and Technology Services (ITS) can play an important role in the transport sector, helping in maintaining accessibility and contemporarily optimizing the use of the vehicles. Among these ICT measures, eco-routing seems a promising one. Drivers normally follow the route which minimizes their generalized costs, normally time and money. But environmental concern is increasing, and drivers are starting to think about the effects of their driving. This means including CO2 emissions or fuel consumption in their route choice. But is this always positive, independently of the traffic situation and the penetration level of green drivers? This articles aims to analyze what happens in terms of fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and travel time, when different penetration levels of drivers, and with different traffic situations, follow the route of minimum fuel consumption instead of the conventional generalized costs. The analysis is based on a modelling process using a transport model of the whole region of Madrid. A total of 18 scenarios are considered: 3 reference scenarios (for congested, medium and low flow traffic situations), and 5 different penetration levels of green drivers for each traffic situation. Results show how impact varies substantially with the level of traffic and, also, that the more the best is not always true. (Author)

  9. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  10. Evaluation of connected vehicle impact on mobility and mode choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Minelli

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Connected vehicle is emerging as a solution to exacerbating congestion problems in urban areas. It is important to understand the impacts of connected vehicle on network and travel behavior of road users. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of connected vehicle on the mode choice and mobility of transportation networks. An iterative methodology was used in this paper where demands for various modes were modified based on the changes in travel time between each origin-destination (OD pair caused by introduction of connected vehicle. Then a traffic assignment was performed in a micro-simulation model, which was able to accurately simulate vehicle-to-vehicle communication. It is assumed that vehicles are equipped with a dynamic route guidance technology to choose their own route using real-time traffic information obtained through communication. The travel times obtained from the micro-simulation model were compared with a base scenario with no connected vehicle. The methodology was tested for a portion of Downtown Toronto, Ontario, Canada. In order to quantify changes in mode share with changes in travel time associated with each OD pair, mode choice models were developed for auto, transit, cycling and pedestrians using data mainly from the Transportation Tomorrow Survey. The impact of connected vehicle on mode choice was evaluated for different market penetrations of connected vehicle. The results of this study show that average travel times for the whole auto mode will generally increase, with the largest increase from connected vehicles. This causes an overall move away from the auto mode for high market penetrations if a dynamic route guidance algorithm is implemented.

  11. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  12. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  13. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  14. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  15. Transportation routing analysis geographic information system -- TRAGIS, a multimodal transportation routing tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.E.

    1995-01-01

    Over 15 years ago, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed two transportation routing models: HIGHWAY, which predicts truck transportation routes, and INTERLINE, which predicts rail transportation routes. Subsequent modifications have been made to enhance each of these models. Some of these changes include population density information for routes, HM-164 routing regulations for highway route controlled quantities of radioactive materials (RAM) truck shipments, and inclusion of waterway routing into INTERLINE. The AIRPORT model, developed 2 years after the HIGHWAY and INTERLINE models, serves as an emergency response tool. This model identifies the nearest airports from a designated location. Currently, the AIRPORT model is inactive. The Transportation Management Division of the US Department of Energy held a Baseline Requirements Assessment Session on the HIGHWAY, INTERLINE, and AIRPORT models in April 1994 to bring together many users of these models and other experts in the transportation routing field to discuss these models and to decide on the capabilities that needed to be added. Of the many needs discussed, the primary one was to have the network databases within a geographic information system (GIS). As a result of the Baseline Requirements Session, the development of a new GIS model has been initiated. This paper will discuss the development of the new Transportation Routing Analysis GIS (TRAGIS) model at ORNL

  16. Discrete Optimization Model for Vehicle Routing Problem with Scheduling Side Cosntraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juliandri, Dedy; Mawengkang, Herman; Bu'ulolo, F.

    2018-01-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important element of many logistic systems which involve routing and scheduling of vehicles from a depot to a set of customers node. This is a hard combinatorial optimization problem with the objective to find an optimal set of routes used by a fleet of vehicles to serve the demands a set of customers It is required that these vehicles return to the depot after serving customers’ demand. The problem incorporates time windows, fleet and driver scheduling, pick-up and delivery in the planning horizon. The goal is to determine the scheduling of fleet and driver and routing policies of the vehicles. The objective is to minimize the overall costs of all routes over the planning horizon. We model the problem as a linear mixed integer program. We develop a combination of heuristics and exact method for solving the model.

  17. The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

    2008-01-01

    Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

  18. Stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem: Mathematical models and ant colony algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengyu Duan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem. Two mathematical models named robust optimal schedule time model and minimum expected schedule time model are proposed for stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem, which can guarantee delivery within the time windows of customers. The robust optimal schedule time model only requires the variation range of link travel time, which can be conveniently derived from historical traffic data. In addition, the robust optimal schedule time model based on robust optimization method can be converted into a time-dependent vehicle routing problem. Moreover, an ant colony optimization algorithm is designed to solve stochastic time-dependent vehicle routing problem. As the improvements in initial solution and transition probability, ant colony optimization algorithm has a good performance in convergence. Through computational instances and Monte Carlo simulation tests, robust optimal schedule time model is proved to be better than minimum expected schedule time model in computational efficiency and coping with the travel time fluctuations. Therefore, robust optimal schedule time model is applicable in real road network.

  19. A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

  20. Selection of highway routes for the shipment of radioactive materials within the Commonwealth of Virginia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobeika, A.G.; Jamei, B.; Santoso, I.B.

    1986-01-01

    In this study Virginia Electric and Power Company proposed to ship limited quantities of irradiated nuclear fuel from Surry to North Anna in Virginia. Eight routes were considered as candidate routes for shipment. The objectives of this study are: To minimize the accidental-release radiation risk to people and property; and to maximize the community preparedness in terms of emergency response and evacuation capability. To determine the ''Preferred'' route and the alternative route for highway shipments of radioactive material, a conceptual approach was developed, based on the following three principles: Feasibility; Evaluation; and Choice. The feasibility of a candidate route is first established. Then all feasible routes are evaluated under the same criteria, which would lead to the choice of the best feasible route

  1. Routing and Scheduling Optimization Model of Sea Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    barus, Mika debora br; asyrafy, Habib; nababan, Esther; mawengkang, Herman

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines the routing and scheduling optimization model of sea transportation. One of the issues discussed is about the transportation of ships carrying crude oil (tankers) which is distributed to many islands. The consideration is the cost of transportation which consists of travel costs and the cost of layover at the port. Crude oil to be distributed consists of several types. This paper develops routing and scheduling model taking into consideration some objective functions and constraints. The formulation of the mathematical model analyzed is to minimize costs based on the total distance visited by the tanker and minimize the cost of the ports. In order for the model of the problem to be more realistic and the cost calculated to be more appropriate then added a parameter that states the multiplier factor of cost increases as the charge of crude oil is filled.

  2. Epidemic metapopulation model with traffic routing in scale-free networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wei; Chen, Shengyong

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a model incorporating both the traffic routing dynamics and the virus prevalence dynamics. In this model, each packet may be isolated from the network on its transporting path, which means that the packet cannot be successfully delivered to its destination. In contrast, a successful transport means that a packet can be delivered from source to destination without being isolated. The effects of model parameters on the delivery success rate and the delivery failure rate are intensively studied and analyzed. Several routing strategies are performed for our model. Results show that the shortest path routing strategy is the most effective for enhancing the delivery success rate, especially when each packet is only allowed to be delivered to the neighbor with the lowest degree along the shortest path. We also find that, by minimizing the sum of the nodes' degree along the transporting path, we can also obtain a satisfactory delivery success rate

  3. Baseline requirements of the proposed action for the Transportation Management Division routing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S.

    1995-02-01

    The potential impacts associated with the transportation of hazardous materials are important to shippers, carriers, and the general public. This is particularly true for shipments of radioactive material. The shippers are primarily concerned with safety, security, efficiency, and equipment requirements. The carriers are concerned with the potential impact that radioactive shipments may have on their operations--particularly if such materials are involved in an accident. The general public has also expressed concerns regarding the safety of transporting radioactive and other hazardous materials through their communities. Because transportation routes are a central concern in hazardous material transport, the prediction of likely routes is the first step toward resolution of these issues. In response to these routing needs, several models have been developed over the past fifteen years at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The HIGHWAY routing model is used to predict routes for truck transportation, the INTERLINE routing model is used to predict both rail and barge routes, and the AIRPORT locator model is used to determine airports with specified criteria near a specific location. As part of the ongoing improvement of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management Transportation Management Division's (EM-261) computer systems and development efforts, a Baseline Requirements Assessment Session on the HIGHWAY, INTERLINE, and AIRPORT models was held at ORNL on April 27, 1994. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss the existing capabilities of the models and data bases and to review enhancements of the models and data bases to expand their usefulness. The results of the Baseline Requirements Assessment Section will be discussed in this report. The discussions pertaining to the different models are contained in separate sections

  4. AutoRoute Rapid Flood Inundation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    cross-section data does not exist. As such, the AutoRoute model is not meant to be as accurate as models such as HEC - RAS (U.S. Army Engineer...such as HEC - RAS assume that the defined low point of cross sections must be connected. However, in this approach the channel is assumed to be defined...Res. 33(2): 309-319. U.S. Army Engineer Hydrologic Engineering Center. 2010. “ HEC - RAS : River Analysis System, User’s Manual, Version 4.1.” Davis

  5. Capacitated Bounded Cardinality Hub Routing Problem: Model and Solution Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Gelareha, Shahin; Monemic, Rahimeh Neamatian; Semetd, Frederic

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we address the Bounded Cardinality Hub Location Routing with Route Capacity wherein each hub acts as a transshipment node for one directed route. The number of hubs lies between a minimum and a maximum and the hub-level network is a complete subgraph. The transshipment operations take place at the hub nodes and flow transfer time from a hub-level transporter to a spoke-level vehicle influences spoke- to-hub allocations. We propose a mathematical model and a branch-and-cut algor...

  6. Two models of the capacitated vehicle routing problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Borčinova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP is to find a set of minimum total cost routes for a fleet of capacitated vehicles based at a single depot, to serve a set of customers. There exist various integer linear programming models of the CVRP. One of the main differences lies in the way to eliminate sub-tours, i.e. cycles that do not go through the depot. In this paper, we describe a well-known flow formulation of CVRP, where sub-tour elimination constraints have a cardinality exponentially growing with the number of customers. Then we present a mixed linear programming formulation with polynomial cardinality of sub-tour elimination constraints. Both of the models were implemented and compared on several benchmarks.

  7. Human X-chromosome inactivation pattern distributions fit a model of genetically influenced choice better than models of completely random choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renault, Nisa K E; Pritchett, Sonja M; Howell, Robin E; Greer, Wenda L; Sapienza, Carmen; Ørstavik, Karen Helene; Hamilton, David C

    2013-01-01

    In eutherian mammals, one X-chromosome in every XX somatic cell is transcriptionally silenced through the process of X-chromosome inactivation (XCI). Females are thus functional mosaics, where some cells express genes from the paternal X, and the others from the maternal X. The relative abundance of the two cell populations (X-inactivation pattern, XIP) can have significant medical implications for some females. In mice, the ‘choice' of which X to inactivate, maternal or paternal, in each cell of the early embryo is genetically influenced. In humans, the timing of XCI choice and whether choice occurs completely randomly or under a genetic influence is debated. Here, we explore these questions by analysing the distribution of XIPs in large populations of normal females. Models were generated to predict XIP distributions resulting from completely random or genetically influenced choice. Each model describes the discrete primary distribution at the onset of XCI, and the continuous secondary distribution accounting for changes to the XIP as a result of development and ageing. Statistical methods are used to compare models with empirical data from Danish and Utah populations. A rigorous data treatment strategy maximises information content and allows for unbiased use of unphased XIP data. The Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and likelihood ratio tests indicate that a model of genetically influenced XCI choice better fits the empirical data than models of completely random choice. PMID:23652377

  8. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

  9. Efficiency of choice set generation methods for bicycle routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schussler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.

    2014-01-01

    for scenic routes, dedicated cycle lanes, and road type. Data consisted of 778 bicycle trips traced by GPS and carried out by 139 persons living in the Greater Copenhagen Area, in Denmark. Results suggest that both the breadth first search on link elimination and the doubly stochastic generation function...

  10. Modelling Choice of Information Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

  11. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  12. The dynamics of user perception, decision making and route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Travellers’ response to performance changes in the traffic system is a decisive factor in the effectiveness of traffic management measures. This thesis provides an empirical and quantitative assessment of choice behaviour and the effects of perception error on choice outcomes. It considers users’

  13. Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Routing in 2D Mesh with Cracky Rectangular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly focuses on routing in two-dimensional mesh networks. We propose a novel faulty block model, which is cracky rectangular block, for fault-tolerant adaptive routing. All the faulty nodes and faulty links are surrounded in this type of block, which is a convex structure, in order to avoid routing livelock. Additionally, the model constructs the interior spanning forest for each block in order to keep in touch with the nodes inside of each block. The procedure for block construction is dynamically and totally distributed. The construction algorithm is simple and ease of implementation. And this is a fully adaptive block which will dynamically adjust its scale in accordance with the situation of networks, either the fault emergence or the fault recovery, without shutdown of the system. Based on this model, we also develop a distributed fault-tolerant routing algorithm. Then we give the formal proof for this algorithm to guarantee that messages will always reach their destinations if and only if the destination nodes keep connecting with these mesh networks. So the new model and routing algorithm maximize the availability of the nodes in networks. This is a noticeable overall improvement of fault tolerability of the system.

  14. A random regret minimization model of travel choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chorus, C.G.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents an alternative to Random Utility-Maximization models of travel choice. Our Random Regret-Minimization model is rooted in Regret Theory and provides several useful features for travel demand analysis. Firstly, it allows for the possibility that choices between travel

  15. Route selection issues for NWPA shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, C.V.; Harrison, I.G.

    1993-01-01

    Questions surrounding the designation of routes for the movement of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) have broad implications. Federal regulations prescribe rules to be applied in the selection of highway routes. In most cases, these rules will lead to a clear selection of one route between an origin and destination point. However, in other cases, strict application of the regulations does not result in a clear choice of a preferred route. The regulations also provide discretion to State governments and carriers to select alternative routes to enhance the safety of the shipment. Railroad shipments of radioactive materials are not subject to Federal routing regulations. Since the railroads operate on private property, it has been assumed that they know the best way to move freight on their system. This discretion, while desirable for addressing unique local safety concerns or for responding to temporary safety concerns such as road problems, weather conditions, or construction areas, leads to significant opportunity for misunderstandings and uneasiness on the part of local residents

  16. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-31

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison

  17. A model-based eco-routing strategy for electric vehicles in large urban networks

    OpenAIRE

    De Nunzio , Giovanni; Thibault , Laurent; Sciarretta , Antonio

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A novel eco-routing navigation strategy and energy consumption modeling approach for electric vehicles are presented in this work. Speed fluctuations and road network infrastructure have a large impact on vehicular energy consumption. Neglecting these effects may lead to large errors in eco-routing navigation, which could trivially select the route with the lowest average speed. We propose an energy consumption model that considers both accelerations and impact of the ...

  18. ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimer, Brandon Walter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoice trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.

  19. Quantum chemistry-assisted synthesis route development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hori, Kenji; Sumimoto, Michinori; Murafuji, Toshihiro

    2015-01-01

    We have been investigating “quantum chemistry-assisted synthesis route development” using in silico screenings and applied the method to several targets. Another example was conducted to develop synthesis routes for a urea derivative, namely 1-(4-(trifluoromethyl)-2-oxo-2H-chromen-7-yl)urea. While five synthesis routes were examined, only three routes passed the second in silico screening. Among them, the reaction of 7-amino-4-(trifluoromethyl)-2H-chromen-2-one and O-methyl carbamate with BF 3 as an additive was ranked as the first choice for synthetic work. We were able to experimentally obtain the target compound even though its yield was as low as 21 %. The theoretical result was thus consistent with that observed. The summary of transition state data base (TSDB) is also provided. TSDB is the key to reducing time of in silico screenings

  20. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  1. Performance modeling of neighbor discovery in proactive routing protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres Medina

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that neighbor discovery is a critical component of proactive routing protocols in wireless ad hoc networks. However there is no formal study on the performance of proposed neighbor discovery mechanisms. This paper provides a detailed model of key performance metrics of neighbor discovery algorithms, such as node degree and the distribution of the distance to symmetric neighbors. The model accounts for the dynamics of neighbor discovery as well as node density, mobility, radio and interference. The paper demonstrates a method for applying these models to the evaluation of global network metrics. In particular, it describes a model of network connectivity. Validation of the models shows that the degree estimate agrees, within 5% error, with simulations for the considered scenarios. The work presented in this paper serves as a basis for the performance evaluation of remaining performance metrics of routing protocols, vital for large scale deployment of ad hoc networks.

  2. Human risk assessment of dermal and inhalation exposures to chemicals assessed by route-to-route extrapolation: the necessity of kinetic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraets, Liesbeth; Bessems, Jos G M; Zeilmaker, Marco J; Bos, Peter M J

    2014-10-01

    In toxicity testing the oral route is in general the first choice. Often, appropriate inhalation and dermal toxicity data are absent. Risk assessment for these latter routes usually has to rely on route-to-route extrapolation starting from oral toxicity data. Although it is generally recognized that the uncertainties involved are (too) large, route-to-route extrapolation is applied in many cases because of a strong need of an assessment of risks linked to a given exposure scenario. For an adequate route-to-route extrapolation the availability of at least some basic toxicokinetic data is a pre-requisite. These toxicokinetic data include all phases of kinetics, from absorption (both absorbed fraction and absorption rate for both the starting route and route of interest) via distribution and biotransformation to excretion. However, in practice only differences in absorption between the different routes are accounted for. The present paper demonstrates the necessity of route-specific absorption data by showing the impact of its absence on the uncertainty of the human health risk assessment using route-to-route extrapolation. Quantification of the absorption (by in vivo, in vitro or in silico methods), particularly for the starting route, is considered essential. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  4. Consumer choice of theme parks : a conjoint choice model of seasonality effects and variety seeking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2000-01-01

    Most existing mathematical models of tourist choice behavior assume that individuals' preferences for choice alternatives remain invariant over time. Although the assumption of invariant preference functions may be reasonable in some choice contexts, this study examines the hypothesis that

  5. Tour Route Multiobjective Optimization Design Based on the Tourist Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Yan Han; Hongzhi Guan; Jiaying Duan

    2014-01-01

    The question prompted is how to design the tour route to make the tourists get the maximum satisfactions considering the tourists’ demand. The influence factors of the tour route choices of tourists were analyzed and tourists’ behavior characteristics and psychological preferences were regarded as the important influence factors based on the tourist behavioral theories. A questionnaire of tourists’ tour route information and satisfaction degree was carried out. Some information about the scen...

  6. Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

  7. Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes. PMID:26294903

  8. Model-Checking Driven Design of QoS-Based Routing Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and reliable routing protocols with Quality of Service (QoS support determine the mission-critical application efficiency in WSNs. This paper proposes a model-checking design driven framework for designing the QoS-based routing protocols of WSNs, which involves the light-weight design process, the timed automata model, and the alternative QoS verification properties. The accurate feedback of continually model checking in the iterative design process effectively stimulates the parameter tuning of the protocols. We demonstrate the straightforward and modular characteristics of the proposed framework in designing a prototype QoS-based routing protocol. The prototype study shows that the model-checking design framework may complement other design methods and ensure the QoS implementation of the QoS-based routing protocol design for WSNs.

  9. A proper choice of route significantly reduces air pollution exposure--a study on bicycle and bus trips in urban streets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Ole; Hvidberg, Martin; Ketzel, Matthias; Storm, Lars; Stausgaard, Lizzi

    2008-01-15

    A proper selection of route through the urban area may significantly reduce the air pollution exposure. This is the main conclusion from the presented study. Air pollution exposure is determined for two selected cohorts along the route going from home to working place, and back from working place to home. Exposure is determined with a street pollution model for three scenarios: bicycling along the shortest possible route, bicycling along the low exposure route along less trafficked streets, and finally taking the shortest trip using public transport. Furthermore, calculations are performed for the cases the trip takes place inside as well as outside the traffic rush hours. The results show that the accumulated air pollution exposure for the low exposure route is between 10% and 30% lower for the primary pollutants (NO(x) and CO). However, the difference is insignificant and in some cases even negative for the secondary pollutants (NO(2) and PM(10)/PM(2.5)). Considering only the contribution from traffic in the travelled streets, the accumulated air pollution exposure is between 54% and 67% lower for the low exposure route. The bus is generally following highly trafficked streets, and the accumulated exposure along the bus route is therefore between 79% and 115% higher than the high exposure bicycle route (the short bicycle route). Travelling outside the rush hour time periods reduces the accumulated exposure between 10% and 30% for the primary pollutants, and between 5% and 20% for the secondary pollutants. The study indicates that a web based route planner for selecting the low exposure route through the city might be a good service for the public. In addition the public may be advised to travel outside rush hour time periods.

  10. Route Monopolie and Optimal Nonlinear Pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournut, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    To cope with air traffic growth and congested airports, two solutions are apparent on the supply side: 1) use larger aircraft in the hub and spoke system; or 2) develop new routes through secondary airports. An enlarged route system through secondary airports may increase the proportion of route monopolies in the air transport market.The monopoly optimal non linear pricing policy is well known in the case of one dimension (one instrument, one characteristic) but not in the case of several dimensions. This paper explores the robustness of the one dimensional screening model with respect to increasing the number of instruments and the number of characteristics. The objective of this paper is then to link and fill the gap in both literatures. One of the merits of the screening model has been to show that a great varieD" of economic questions (non linear pricing, product line choice, auction design, income taxation, regulation...) could be handled within the same framework.VCe study a case of non linear pricing (2 instruments (2 routes on which the airline pro_ddes customers with services), 2 characteristics (demand of services on these routes) and two values per characteristic (low and high demand of services on these routes)) and we show that none of the conclusions of the one dimensional analysis remain valid. In particular, upward incentive compatibility constraint may be binding at the optimum. As a consequence, they may be distortion at the top of the distribution. In addition to this, we show that the optimal solution often requires a kind of form of bundling, we explain explicitly distortions and show that it is sometimes optimal for the monopolist to only produce one good (instead of two) or to exclude some buyers from the market. Actually, this means that the monopolist cannot fully apply his monopoly power and is better off selling both goods independently.We then define all the possible solutions in the case of a quadratic cost function for a uniform

  11. Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, M.

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, transport mode choice was primarily examined as a stand alone problem. Given a purpose and destination, the choice of transport mode was modelled as a function of the various attributes of the transport mode alternatives. Later, transport mode choice decisions were modelled as part of

  12. Exploring the Influence of Attitudes to Walking and Cycling on Commute Mode Choice Using a Hybrid Choice Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transport-related problems, such as automobile dependence, traffic congestion, and greenhouse emissions, lead to a great burden on the environment. In developing countries like China, in order to improve the air quality, promoting sustainable travel modes to reduce the automobile usage is gradually recognized as an emerging national concern. Though there are many studies related to the physically active modes (e.g., walking and cycling, the research on the influence of attitudes to active modes on travel behavior is limited, especially in China. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of attitudes to walking and cycling on commute mode choice. Using the survey data collected in China cities, an integrated discrete choice model and the structural equation model are proposed. By applying the hybrid choice model, not only the role of the latent attitude played in travel mode choice, but also the indirect effects of social factors on travel mode choice are obtained. The comparison indicates that the hybrid choice model outperforms the traditional model. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for urban planners on the influential factors of green travel modes.

  13. Generalized outcome-based strategy classification: comparing deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

    2014-12-01

    Model comparisons are a vital tool for disentangling which of several strategies a decision maker may have used--that is, which cognitive processes may have governed observable choice behavior. However, previous methodological approaches have been limited to models (i.e., decision strategies) with deterministic choice rules. As such, psychologically plausible choice models--such as evidence-accumulation and connectionist models--that entail probabilistic choice predictions could not be considered appropriately. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of Bröder and Schiffer's (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 361-380, 2003) choice-based classification method, relying on (1) parametric order constraints in the multinomial processing tree framework to implement probabilistic models and (2) minimum description length for model comparison. The advantages of the generalized approach are demonstrated through recovery simulations and an experiment. In explaining previous methods and our generalization, we maintain a nontechnical focus--so as to provide a practical guide for comparing both deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

  14. Influence of queue propagation and dissipation on route travel times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena

    into account (Bliemer, 2008). Yperman (2007) indicates that there is a significant difference in queue-propagation and queue-dissipation between the LTM and DQM. This results in different route travel times, and can further affect route choice. In this paper, different approaches to represent queue propagation...... and dissipation through the CTM, LTM and DQM are studied. A simple network allows to show how these approaches influence route travel time. Furthermore, the possibility of changing the existing DQM is considered in order to more realistically represent queue propagation and dissipation, which would lead to more...... accurate route travel times....

  15. Subsidy policy and the enlargement of choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, Sunderasan

    2009-01-01

    Development is the enlargement of people's choices. Optimal subsidy policy is intended to create the right incentives for each of the value chain participants. This paper contends that the interest subsidy offered by the Indian federal Ministry of New and Renewable Energy for solar thermal systems, through mainstream banking channels is superior in intent and outcome compared to the capital subsidy as currently offered for solar PV systems, routed through government controlled delivery channels. The interest subsidy enhances innovation, improves service delivery and expands the range of product available to consumers enjoying a wide range of endowments, thus leading to more inclusive development. The simple monopoly model developed by Atkinson [Atkinson AB. Capabilities, exclusion and the supply of goods. In: Basu K, Pattanaik P, Suzumura K, editor, Choice, Welfare and Development. Oxford University Press; 1995] is applied to the context of solar home systems to demonstrate price reduction and choice expansion in a liberalized market, facilitated by an interest subsidy scheme. (author)

  16. Strategic Air Traffic Planning Using Eulerian Route Based Modeling and Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombelli, Alessandro

    Due to a soaring air travel growth in the last decades, air traffic management has become increasingly challenging. As a consequence, planning tools are being devised to help human decision-makers achieve a better management of air traffic. Planning tools are divided into two categories, strategic and tactical. Strategic planning generally addresses a larger planning domain and is performed days to hours in advance. Tactical planning is more localized and is performed hours to minutes in advance. An aggregate route model for strategic air traffic flow management is presented. It is an Eulerian model, describing the flow between cells of unidirectional point-to-point routes. Aggregate routes are created from flight trajectory data based on similarity measures. Spatial similarity is determined using the Frechet distance. The aggregate routes approximate actual well-traveled traffic patterns. By specifying the model resolution, an appropriate balance between model accuracy and model dimension can be achieved. For a particular planning horizon, during which weather is expected to restrict the flow, a procedure for designing airborne reroutes and augmenting the traffic flow model is developed. The dynamics of the traffic flow on the resulting network take the form of a discrete-time, linear time-invariant system. The traffic flow controls are ground holding, pre-departure rerouting and airborne rerouting. Strategic planning--determining how the controls should be used to modify the future traffic flow when local capacity violations are anticipated--is posed as an integer programming problem of minimizing a weighted sum of flight delays subject to control and capacity constraints. Several tests indicate the effectiveness of the modeling and strategic planning approach. In the final, most challenging, test, strategic planning is demonstrated for the six western-most Centers of the 22-Center national airspace. The planning time horizon is four hours long, and there is

  17. Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

    2010-06-01

    This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

  18. Timetable-based simulation method for choice set generation in large-scale public transport networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2016-01-01

    The composition and size of the choice sets are a key for the correct estimation of and prediction by route choice models. While existing literature has posed a great deal of attention towards the generation of path choice sets for private transport problems, the same does not apply to public...... transport problems. This study proposes a timetable-based simulation method for generating path choice sets in a multimodal public transport network. Moreover, this study illustrates the feasibility of its implementation by applying the method to reproduce 5131 real-life trips in the Greater Copenhagen Area...... and to assess the choice set quality in a complex multimodal transport network. Results illustrate the applicability of the algorithm and the relevance of the utility specification chosen for the reproduction of real-life path choices. Moreover, results show that the level of stochasticity used in choice set...

  19. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  20. Choice of Professional and Educational Route in High School Students with Disabilities: University Education in the Context of Motivation and Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kantor V.Z.

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of a questionnaire survey in the context of the idea of continuity of school and university education of persons with disabilities. 90 senior students with visual, hearing and motor impairments were the respondents of the survey. The purpose of the survey was to study the motives, preferences and needs of school graduates among disabled people, which determine the choice of their vocational and educational route. The survey reveals features of motivation for professional choice of various categories of enrollees with disabilities and its informational support; assesses the level of these enrollees needs in helping by career counselors; identifies the preferred forms of higher education by persons with disabilities; characterizes the needs of people with disabilities in special equipment and services in obtaining higher education, as well as in adaptation of educational programs in the university. The resulting practical-oriented conclusions concern both purpose and content of the work with disabled enrollees from among school graduates as well as approaches to the organization of higher education for persons with disabilities.

  1. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  2. Sternal Route More Effective than Tibial Route for Intraosseous Amiodarone Administration in a Swine Model of Ventricular Fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgert, James M; Martinez, Andre; O'Sullivan, Mara; Blouin, Dawn; Long, Audrey; Johnson, Arthur D

    2018-01-01

    The pharmacokinetics of IO administered lipid soluble amiodarone during ventricular fibrillation (VF) with ongoing CPR are unknown. This study measured mean plasma concentration over 5 minutes, maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), and time to maximum concentration (Tmax) of amiodarone administered by the sternal IO (SIO), tibial IO (TIO), and IV routes in a swine model of VF with ongoing CPR. Twenty-one Yorkshire-cross swine were randomly assigned to three groups: SIO, TIO, and IV. Ventricular fibrillation was induced under general anesthesia. After 4 minutes in VF, 300 mg amiodarone was administered as indicated by group assignment. Serial blood specimens collected at 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, 240, and 300 seconds were analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. The mean plasma concentration of IV amiodarone over 5 minutes was significantly higher than the TIO group at 60 seconds (P = 0.02) and 90 seconds (P = 0.017) post-injection. No significant differences in Cmax between the groups were found (P <0.05). The Tmax of amiodarone was significantly shorter in the SIO (99 secs) and IV (86 secs) groups compared to the TIO group (215 secs); P = 0.002 and P = 0.002, respectively. The SIO and IV routes of amiodarone administration were comparable. The TIO group took nearly three times longer to reach Tmax than the SIO and IV groups, likely indicating depot of lipid-soluble amiodarone in adipose-rich tibial yellow bone marrow. The SIO route was more effective than the TIO route for amiodarone delivery in a swine model of VF with ongoing CPR. Further investigations are necessary to determine if the kinetic differences found between the SIO and TIO routes in this study affect survival of VF in humans.

  3. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onut, S; Kamber, M R; Altay, G

    2014-01-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time

  4. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

    2014-03-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

  5. Modeling and Tool Wear in Routing of CFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliescu, D.; Fernandez, A.; Gutierrez-Orrantia, M. E.; Lopez de Lacalle, L. N.; Girot, F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the prediction and evaluation of feed force in routing of carbon composite material. In order to extend tool life and improve quality of the machined surface, a better understanding of uncoated and coated tool behaviors is required. This work describes (1) the optimization of the geometry of multiple teeth tools minimizing the tool wear and the feed force, (2) the optimization of tool coating and (3) the development of a phenomenological model between the feed force, the routing parameters and the tool wear. The experimental results indicate that the feed rate, the cutting speed and the tool wear are the most significant factors affecting the feed force. In the case of multiple teeth tools, a particular geometry with 14 teeth right helix right cut and 11 teeth left helix right cut gives the best results. A thick AlTiN coating or a diamond coating can dramatically improve the tool life while minimizing the axial force, roughness and delamination. A wear model has then been developed based on an abrasive behavior of the tool. The model links the feed rate to the tool geometry parameters (tool diameter), to the process parameters (feed rate, cutting speed and depth of cut) and to the wear. The model presented has been verified by experimental tests.

  6. Finding the right RoPax vessel size and freight price. A coste and mode choice model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales Fusco, P.; Grau Sala, M.; Sauri Marchan, S.

    2016-07-01

    Motorways of the sea operated as RoPax services are natural competitors with only-road freight haulage transportation. Cost, time and quality perceived are the determinants that make transporters and shippers use one route or another. This research considers the role that shipping companies and their ship deployment and pricing strategy have in the equation, as incentives for modal shift from road to sea. A model of the ships and transporter costs is developed considering different business models for the transporter (accompanied versus unaccompanied cargo) followed with a discrete choice model that, once calibrated, allows to test the influence that variables such as frequency, ship size and commercial speed might play into the competitiveness of a shipping line. As a result, different pricing strategies for the shipping line are developed and the characteristics of the optimal shipping line for each of them are found, to either maximize the profit of the shipping company or the modal shift. (Author)

  7. Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

  8. Chlorpyrifos PBPK/PD model for multiple routes of exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poet, Torka S; Timchalk, Charles; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Bartels, Michael J

    2014-10-01

    1. Chlorpyrifos (CPF) is an important pesticide used to control crop insects. Human Exposures to CPF will occur primarily through oral exposure to residues on foods. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model has been developed that describes the relationship between oral, dermal and inhalation doses of CPF and key events in the pathway for cholinergic effects. The model was built on a prior oral model that addressed age-related changes in metabolism and physiology. This multi-route model was developed in rats and humans to validate all scenarios in a parallelogram design. 2. Critical biological effects from CPF exposure require metabolic activation to CPF oxon, and small amounts of metabolism in tissues will potentially have a great effect on pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic outcomes. Metabolism (bioactivation and detoxification) was therefore added in diaphragm, brain, lung and skin compartments. Pharmacokinetic data are available for controlled human exposures via the oral and dermal routes and from oral and inhalation studies in rats. The validated model was then used to determine relative dermal versus inhalation uptake from human volunteers exposed to CPF in an indoor scenario.

  9. Behavioral lateralization and optimal route choice in flying budgerigars.

    OpenAIRE

    Partha S Bhagavatula; Charles Claudianos; Michael R Ibbotson; Mandyam V Srinivasan

    2014-01-01

    Birds flying through a cluttered environment require the ability to choose routes that will take them through the environment safely and quickly. We have investigated some of the strategies by which they achieve this. We trained budgerigars to fly through a tunnel in which they encountered a barrier that offered two passages, positioned side by side, at the halfway point. When one of the passages was substantially wider than the other, the birds tended to fly through the wider passage to cont...

  10. Materials Processing Routes to Trap-Free Halide Perovskites

    KAUST Repository

    Buin, Andrei; Pietsch, Patrick; Xu, Jixian; Voznyy, Oleksandr; Ip, Alexander H.; Comin, Riccardo; Sargent, Edward H.

    2014-01-01

    that the specific choice of growth conditions and chemical precursors is central to achieving superior performance from these materials; yet the roles and mechanisms underlying the selection of materials processing route is poorly understood. Here we show that films

  11. The Electric Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Recharging Stations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiermann, Gerhard; Puchinger, Jakob; Røpke, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Due to new regulations and further technological progress in the field of electric vehicles, the research community faces the new challenge of incorporating the electric energy based restrictions into vehicle routing problems. One of these restrictions is the limited battery capacity which makes...... detours to recharging stations necessary, thus requiring efficient tour planning mechanisms in order to sustain the competitiveness of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles. We introduce the Electric Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Recharging Stations (E......-FSMFTW) to model decisions to be made with regards to fleet composition and the actual vehicle routes including the choice of recharging times and locations. The available vehicle types differ in their transport capacity, battery size and acquisition cost. Furthermore, we consider time windows at customer...

  12. Simulation of optimal arctic routes using a numerical sea ice model based on an ice-coupled ocean circulation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Ho Nam

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Ever since the Arctic region has opened its mysterious passage to mankind, continuous attempts to take advantage of its fastest route across the region has been made. The Arctic region is still covered by thick ice and thus finding a feasible navigating route is essential for an economical voyage. To find the optimal route, it is necessary to establish an efficient transit model that enables us to simulate every possible route in advance. In this work, an enhanced algorithm to determine the optimal route in the Arctic region is introduced. A transit model based on the simulated sea ice and environmental data numerically modeled in the Arctic is developed. By integrating the simulated data into a transit model, further applications such as route simulation, cost estimation or hindcast can be easily performed. An interactive simulation system that determines the optimal Arctic route using the transit model is developed. The simulation of optimal routes is carried out and the validity of the results is discussed.

  13. Cyclist route choice, traffic-related air pollution, and lung function: a scripted exposure study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarjour, Sarah; Jerrett, Michael; Westerdahl, Dane; de Nazelle, Audrey; Hanning, Cooper; Daly, Laura; Lipsitt, Jonah; Balmes, John

    2013-02-07

    A travel mode shift to active transportation such as bicycling would help reduce traffic volume and related air pollution emissions as well as promote increased physical activity level. Cyclists, however, are at risk for exposure to vehicle-related air pollutants due to their proximity to vehicle traffic and elevated respiratory rates. To promote safe bicycle commuting, the City of Berkeley, California, has designated a network of residential streets as "Bicycle Boulevards." We hypothesized that cyclist exposure to air pollution would be lower on these Bicycle Boulevards when compared to busier roads and this elevated exposure may result in reduced lung function. We recruited 15 healthy adults to cycle on two routes - a low-traffic Bicycle Boulevard route and a high-traffic route. Each participant cycled on the low-traffic route once and the high-traffic route once. We mounted pollutant monitors and a global positioning system (GPS) on the bicycles. The monitors were all synced to GPS time so pollutant measurements could be spatially plotted. We measured lung function using spirometry before and after each bike ride. We found that fine and ultrafine particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and black carbon were all elevated on the high-traffic route compared to the low-traffic route. There were no corresponding changes in the lung function of healthy non-asthmatic study subjects. We also found that wind-speed affected pollution concentrations. These results suggest that by selecting low-traffic Bicycle Boulevards instead of heavily trafficked roads, cyclists can reduce their exposure to vehicle-related air pollution. The lung function results indicate that elevated pollutant exposure may not have acute negative effects on healthy cyclists, but further research is necessary to determine long-term effects on a more diverse population. This study and broader field of research have the potential to encourage policy-makers and city planners to expand infrastructure to

  14. Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

  15. Discrete Choice Experiments: A Guide to Model Specification, Estimation and Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancsar, Emily; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hole, Arne Risa

    2017-07-01

    We provide a user guide on the analysis of data (including best-worst and best-best data) generated from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), comprising a theoretical review of the main choice models followed by practical advice on estimation and post-estimation. We also provide a review of standard software. In providing this guide, we endeavour to not only provide guidance on choice modelling but to do so in a way that provides a 'way in' for researchers to the practicalities of data analysis. We argue that choice of modelling approach depends on the research questions, study design and constraints in terms of quality/quantity of data and that decisions made in relation to analysis of choice data are often interdependent rather than sequential. Given the core theory and estimation of choice models is common across settings, we expect the theoretical and practical content of this paper to be useful to researchers not only within but also beyond health economics.

  16. A Mathematical Model for the Industrial Hazardous Waste Location-Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Boyer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Technology progress is a cause of industrial hazardous wastes increasing in the whole world . Management of hazardous waste is a significant issue due to the imposed risk on environment and human life. This risk can be a result of location of undesirable facilities and also routing hazardous waste. In this paper a biobjective mixed integer programing model for location-routing industrial hazardous waste with two objectives is developed. First objective is total cost minimization including transportation cost, operation cost, initial investment cost, and cost saving from selling recycled waste. Second objective is minimization of transportation risk. Risk of population exposure within bandwidth along route is used to measure transportation risk. This model can help decision makers to locate treatment, recycling, and disposal centers simultaneously and also to route waste between these facilities considering risk and cost criteria. The results of the solved problem prove conflict between two objectives. Hence, it is possible to decrease the cost value by marginally increasing the transportation risk value and vice versa. A weighted sum method is utilized to combine two objectives function into one objective function. To solve the problem GAMS software with CPLEX solver is used. The problem is applied in Markazi province in Iran.

  17. An Improved 6LoWPAN Hierarchical Routing Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Li

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available IETF 6LoWPAN working group is engaged in the IPv6 protocol stack research work based on IEEE802.15.4 standard. In this working group, the routing protocol is one of the important research contents. In the 6LoWPAN, HiLow is a well-known layered routing protocol. This paper puts forward an improved hierarchical routing protocol GHiLow by improving HiLow parent node selection and path restoration strategy. GHiLow improves the parent node selection by increasing the choice of parameters. Simutaneously, it also improves path recovery by analysing different situations to recovery path. Therefore, GHiLow contributes to the ehancement of network performance and the decrease of network energy consumption.

  18. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GJ16-07603Y Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  19. Optimization of the Fabrication Route of Ferritic/Martensitic ODS Cladding Tubes: Metallurgical Approach and Pilgering Numerical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logé, R.E.; Vanegas-Marques, E.; Mocellin, K.; Toualbi, L.; Carlan, Y. de

    2013-01-01

    Conclusions: • Fabrication route of 9Cr-ODS (martensitic) alloys is well controlled. • Fabrication route of 14Cr-ODS (ferritic) should be further optimized. • The choice between a ferritic or a martensitic grade is not already done, it will depend also on the behaviour under irradiation, the corrosion resistance … • Part of the optimization can rely on numerical simulation of pilgering: • The constitutive behaviour is an essential ingredient for process optimization: appropriate cyclic laws must be used. • The numerical analysis can look at cracking risks, final yield stress, and even residual stress state or surface roughness. • HPTR laboratory approaches can be translated to the (industrial) VMR process provided some additional adjustments in the numerical code

  20. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...... parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner's or charterer's speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved....

  1. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  2. Transport spatial model for the definition of green routes for city logistics centers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pamučar, Dragan, E-mail: dpamucar@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Logistics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Gigović, Ljubomir, E-mail: gigoviclj@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Mathematics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Ćirović, Goran, E-mail: cirovic@sezampro.rs [College of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, The Belgrade University, Hajduk Stankova 2, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Regodić, Miodrag, E-mail: mregodic62@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Mathematics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia)

    2016-01-15

    This paper presents a transport spatial decision support model (TSDSM) for carrying out the optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. The TSDSM model is based on the integration of the multi-criteria method of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and the modified Dijkstra algorithm within a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS is used for processing spatial data. The proposed model makes it possible to plan routes for green vehicles and maximize the positive effects on the environment, which can be seen in the reduction of harmful gas emissions and an increase in the air quality in highly populated areas. The scheduling of delivery vehicles is given as a problem of optimization in terms of the parameters of: the environment, health, use of space and logistics operating costs. Each of these input parameters was thoroughly examined and broken down in the GIS into criteria which further describe them. The model presented here takes into account the fact that logistics operators have a limited number of environmentally friendly (green) vehicles available. The TSDSM was tested on a network of roads with 127 links for the delivery of goods from the city logistics center to the user. The model supports any number of available environmentally friendly or environmentally unfriendly vehicles consistent with the size of the network and the transportation requirements. - Highlights: • Model for routing light delivery vehicles in urban areas. • Optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. • The proposed model maximizes the positive effects on the environment. • The model was tested on a real network.

  3. Transport spatial model for the definition of green routes for city logistics centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pamučar, Dragan; Gigović, Ljubomir; Ćirović, Goran; Regodić, Miodrag

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a transport spatial decision support model (TSDSM) for carrying out the optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. The TSDSM model is based on the integration of the multi-criteria method of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and the modified Dijkstra algorithm within a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS is used for processing spatial data. The proposed model makes it possible to plan routes for green vehicles and maximize the positive effects on the environment, which can be seen in the reduction of harmful gas emissions and an increase in the air quality in highly populated areas. The scheduling of delivery vehicles is given as a problem of optimization in terms of the parameters of: the environment, health, use of space and logistics operating costs. Each of these input parameters was thoroughly examined and broken down in the GIS into criteria which further describe them. The model presented here takes into account the fact that logistics operators have a limited number of environmentally friendly (green) vehicles available. The TSDSM was tested on a network of roads with 127 links for the delivery of goods from the city logistics center to the user. The model supports any number of available environmentally friendly or environmentally unfriendly vehicles consistent with the size of the network and the transportation requirements. - Highlights: • Model for routing light delivery vehicles in urban areas. • Optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. • The proposed model maximizes the positive effects on the environment. • The model was tested on a real network.

  4. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  5. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  6. Flood routing modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Peters

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For the modelling of the flood routing in the lower reaches of the Freiberger Mulde river and its tributaries the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system HEC-RAS has been applied. Furthermore, this model was used to generate a database to train multilayer feedforward networks. To guarantee numerical stability for the hydrodynamic modelling of some 60 km of streamcourse an adequate resolution in space requires very small calculation time steps, which are some two orders of magnitude smaller than the input data resolution. This leads to quite high computation requirements seriously restricting the application – especially when dealing with real time operations such as online flood forecasting. In order to solve this problem we tested the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. First studies show the ability of adequately trained multilayer feedforward networks (MLFN to reproduce the model performance.

  7. Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System -- TRAGIS, progress on improving a routing tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.E.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-05-01

    The Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System (TRAGIS) model provides a useful tool to calculate and analyze transportation routes for radioactive materials within the continental US. This paper outlines some of the features available in this model

  8. Optimizing Cruising Routes for Taxi Drivers Using a Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Wu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Much of the taxi route-planning literature has focused on driver strategies for finding passengers and determining the hot spot pick-up locations using historical global positioning system (GPS trajectories of taxis based on driver experience, distance from the passenger drop-off location to the next passenger pick-up location and the waiting times at recommended locations for the next passenger. The present work, however, considers the average taxi travel speed mined from historical taxi GPS trajectory data and the allocation of cruising routes to more than one taxi driver in a small-scale region to neighboring pick-up locations. A spatio-temporal trajectory model with load balancing allocations is presented to not only explore pick-up/drop-off information but also provide taxi drivers with cruising routes to the recommended pick-up locations. In simulation experiments, our study shows that taxi drivers using cruising routes recommended by our spatio-temporal trajectory model can significantly reduce the average waiting time and travel less distance to quickly find their next passengers, and the load balancing strategy significantly alleviates road loads. These objective measures can help us better understand spatio-temporal traffic patterns and guide taxi navigation.

  9. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  10. INTERLINE 5.0 -- An expanded railroad routing model: Program description, methodology, and revised user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S.; Clarke, D.B.; Jacobi, J.M.

    1993-03-01

    A rail routine model, INTERLINE, has been developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to investigate potential routes for transporting radioactive materials. In Version 5.0, the INTERLINE routing algorithms have been enhanced to include the ability to predict alternative routes, barge routes, and population statistics for any route. The INTERLINE railroad network is essentially a computerized rail atlas describing the US railroad system. All rail lines, with the exception of industrial spurs, are included in the network. Inland waterways and deep water routes along with their interchange points with the US railroadsystem are also included. The network contains over 15,000 rail and barge segments (links) and over 13,000 stations, interchange points, ports, and other locations (nodes). The INTERLINE model has been converted to operate on an IBM-compatible personal computer. At least a 286 computer with a hard disk containing approximately 6 MB of free space is recommended. Enhanced program performance will be obtained by using arandom-access memory drive on a 386 or 486 computer

  11. Predicting transportation routes for radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.; Clarke, D.B.; McGuire, S.C.

    1981-01-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been involved in transportation logistics of radioactive wastes as part of the overall waste transportation program. A Spent Fuel Logistics Model (SFLM), was developed to predict overall material balances representing the flow of spent fuel assemblies from reactors to away-from-reactor storage facilities and/or to federal repositories. The transportation requirements to make these shipments are also itemized. The next logical step in the overall transportation project was the development of a set of computer codes which would predict likely transportation routes for waste shipments. Two separate routing models are now operational at ORNL. Routes for truck transport can be estimated with the HIGHWAY program, and rail and barge routes can be predicted with the INTERLINE model. This paper discusses examples of the route estimates and applications of the routing models

  12. mizuRoute version 1: A river network routing tool for a continental domain water resources applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Sampson, Kevin; Nijssen, Bart; Mao, Yixin; McMillan, Hilary; Viger, Roland; Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Woods, Ross; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the first version of a stand-alone runoff routing tool, mizuRoute. The mizuRoute tool post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic model or land surface model to produce spatially distributed streamflow at various spatial scales from headwater basins to continental-wide river systems. The tool can utilize both traditional grid-based river network and vector-based river network data. Both types of river network include river segment lines and the associated drainage basin polygons, but the vector-based river network can represent finer-scale river lines than the grid-based network. Streamflow estimates at any desired location in the river network can be easily extracted from the output of mizuRoute. The routing process is simulated as two separate steps. First, hillslope routing is performed with a gamma-distribution-based unit-hydrograph to transport runoff from a hillslope to a catchment outlet. The second step is river channel routing, which is performed with one of two routing scheme options: (1) a kinematic wave tracking (KWT) routing procedure; and (2) an impulse response function – unit-hydrograph (IRF-UH) routing procedure. The mizuRoute tool also includes scripts (python, NetCDF operators) to pre-process spatial river network data. This paper demonstrates mizuRoute's capabilities to produce spatially distributed streamflow simulations based on river networks from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Fabric (GF) data set in which over 54 000 river segments and their contributing areas are mapped across the contiguous United States (CONUS). A brief analysis of model parameter sensitivity is also provided. The mizuRoute tool can assist model-based water resources assessments including studies of the impacts of climate change on streamflow.

  13. Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkman, Elliot T

    2018-01-01

    Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

  14. Modeling On-Body DTN Packet Routing Delay in the Presence of Postural Disconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taghizadeh Mahmoud

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a stochastic modeling framework for store-and-forward packet routing in Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN with postural partitioning. A prototype WBANs has been constructed for experimentally characterizing and capturing on-body topology disconnections in the presence of ultrashort range radio links, unpredictable RF attenuation, and human postural mobility. Delay modeling techniques for evaluating single-copy on-body DTN routing protocols are then developed. End-to-end routing delay for a series of protocols including opportunistic, randomized, and two other mechanisms that capture multiscale topological localities in human postural movements have been evaluated. Performance of the analyzed protocols are then evaluated experimentally and via simulation to compare with the results obtained from the developed model. Finally, a mechanism for evaluating the topological importance of individual on-body sensor nodes is developed. It is shown that such information can be used for selectively reducing the on-body sensor-count without substantially sacrificing the packet delivery delay.

  15. Modeling On-Body DTN Packet Routing Delay in the Presence of Postural Disconnections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quwaider, Muhannad; Taghizadeh, Mahmoud; Biswas, Subir

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic modeling framework for store-and-forward packet routing in Wireless Body Area Networks ( WBAN ) with postural partitioning. A prototype WBANs has been constructed for experimentally characterizing and capturing on-body topology disconnections in the presence of ultrashort range radio links, unpredictable RF attenuation, and human postural mobility. Delay modeling techniques for evaluating single-copy on-body DTN routing protocols are then developed. End-to-end routing delay for a series of protocols including opportunistic, randomized, and two other mechanisms that capture multiscale topological localities in human postural movements have been evaluated. Performance of the analyzed protocols are then evaluated experimentally and via simulation to compare with the results obtained from the developed model. Finally, a mechanism for evaluating the topological importance of individual on-body sensor nodes is developed. It is shown that such information can be used for selectively reducing the on-body sensor-count without substantially sacrificing the packet delivery delay.

  16. A Mathematical model to predict the US Airlines operation costs and airports charges per route per passenger

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmona Benitez, R.B.; Lodewijiks, G.

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model to estimate the average airlines operational costs and airports charges per route is important for airlines companies trying to open new routes and for data generation for other purpose such as transport modeling, simulation modeling, investment analyses for airlines and

  17. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  18. Routing in opportunistic networks

    CERN Document Server

    Dhurandher, Sanjay; Anpalagan, Alagan; Vasilakos, Athanasios

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to selected topics, both ongoing and emerging, in routing in OppNets. The book is edited by worldwide technical leaders, prolific researchers and outstanding academics, Dr. Isaac Woungang and co-editors, Dr. Sanjay Kumar Dhurandher, Prof. Alagan Anpalagan and Prof. Athanasios Vasilakos. Consisting of contributions from well known and high profile researchers and scientists in their respective specialties, the main topics that are covered in this book include mobility and routing, social-aware routing, context-based routing, energy-aware routing, incentive-aware routing, stochastic routing, modeling of intermittent connectivity, in both infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Key Features: Discusses existing and emerging techniques for routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Provides a unified covering of otherwise disperse selected topics on routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets.  Includes a set of PowerPoint slides and g...

  19. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  20. An Examination of Visitors’ Interest in Tourist Cards and Cultural Routes in the Case of a Romanian Destination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana ISPAS

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although tourist cards and cultural routes have been interesting innovations when they were launched on the international tourism market, they are rarely implemented in Romanian tourism destinations, especially in an integrated manner. This paper presents a theoretical model regarding the integration of tourist cards in cultural routes, based on the assumption that tourists who are interested in both products have similar demographic and travel characteristics. The research results outline only the infl uence of tourists’ travel characteristics on their interest to buy cultural routes and tourist cards. Leisure travelers should be the main targeted segment, as their probability to buy such products is higher than in the case of business or VFR (visit friends and relatives tourists. These results can assist the Destination Management Organizations (DMOs regarding the choice of marketing strategies aimed at integrating cultural routes in a tourist card.

  1. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Piantadosi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage in choice, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are linearly separable into a psychologically plausible heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice.

  2. Solving a bi-objective mathematical programming model for bloodmobiles location routing problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Rabbani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Perishability of platelets, uncertainty of donors’ arrival and conflicting views in platelet supply chain have made platelet supply chain planning a problematic issue. In this paper, mobile blood collection system for platelet production is investigated. Two mathematical models are presented to cover the bloodmobile collection planning problem. The first model is a multi-objective fuzzy mathematical programming in which the bloodmobiles locations are considered with the aim of maximizing potential amount of blood collection and minimizing the operational cost. The second model is a vehicle routing problem with time windows which studies the shuttles routing problem. To tackle the first model, it is reformulated as a crisp multi objective linear programming model and then solved through a fuzzy multi objective programming approach. Several sensitivity analysis are conducted on important parameters to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The proposed model is then solved by using a tailored Simulated Annealing (SA algorithm. The numerical results demonstrate promising efficiency of the proposed solution method.

  3. Backtracking search algorithm in CVRP models for efficient solid waste collection and route optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, Mahmuda; Hannan, M A; Begum, R A; Basri, Hassan; Scavino, Edgar

    2017-03-01

    Waste collection is an important part of waste management that involves different issues, including environmental, economic, and social, among others. Waste collection optimization can reduce the waste collection budget and environmental emissions by reducing the collection route distance. This paper presents a modified Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA) in capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) models with the smart bin concept to find the best optimized waste collection route solutions. The objective function minimizes the sum of the waste collection route distances. The study introduces the concept of the threshold waste level (TWL) of waste bins to reduce the number of bins to be emptied by finding an optimal range, thus minimizing the distance. A scheduling model is also introduced to compare the feasibility of the proposed model with that of the conventional collection system in terms of travel distance, collected waste, fuel consumption, fuel cost, efficiency and CO 2 emission. The optimal TWL was found to be between 70% and 75% of the fill level of waste collection nodes and had the maximum tightness value for different problem cases. The obtained results for four days show a 36.80% distance reduction for 91.40% of the total waste collection, which eventually increases the average waste collection efficiency by 36.78% and reduces the fuel consumption, fuel cost and CO 2 emission by 50%, 47.77% and 44.68%, respectively. Thus, the proposed optimization model can be considered a viable tool for optimizing waste collection routes to reduce economic costs and environmental impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  5. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  7. Digital model of underground tourist route “St. John’s Mine” in Krobica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Moczydłowska

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A general characteristics of “St. John’s Mine” tourist route (“Kopalnia Św. Jana”, Krobica, Lower Silesia has been shown, containing the history of mining workings, geology and stages of it’s investigation, protection and adaptation for a tourist traffic. The steps of construction of it’s spatial model, in Datamine Studio 3 software, are presented. The resulting model has been proposed as a complementary element of “Mine St. John’s Mine” tourist offer. It can be used as part of the introduction on the beginning of the route, and as a basis for the creation of an interactive model of the tourist facility.

  8. Capacitated Hub Routing Problem in Hub-and-Feeder Network Design: Modeling and Solution Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Gelareh , Shahin; Neamatian Monemi , Rahimeh; Semet , Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    International audience; In this paper, we address the Bounded Cardinality Hub Location Routing with Route Capacity wherein eachhub acts as a transshipment node for one directed route. The number of hubs lies between a minimum anda maximum and the hub-level network is a complete subgraph. The transshipment operations take place atthe hub nodes and flow transfer time from a hub-level transporter to a spoke-level vehicle influences spoketo-hub allocations. We propose a mathematical model and a b...

  9. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2017-08-01

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  10. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  11. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  12. Random regret-based discrete-choice modelling: an application to healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Chorus, Caspar G

    2013-07-01

    A new modelling approach for analysing data from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs) has been recently developed in transport economics based on the notion of regret minimization-driven choice behaviour. This so-called Random Regret Minimization (RRM) approach forms an alternative to the dominant Random Utility Maximization (RUM) approach. The RRM approach is able to model semi-compensatory choice behaviour and compromise effects, while being as parsimonious and formally tractable as the RUM approach. Our objectives were to introduce the RRM modelling approach to healthcare-related decisions, and to investigate its usefulness in this domain. Using data from DCEs aimed at determining valuations of attributes of osteoporosis drug treatments and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations, we empirically compared RRM models, RUM models and Hybrid RUM-RRM models in terms of goodness of fit, parameter ratios and predicted choice probabilities. In terms of model fit, the RRM model did not outperform the RUM model significantly in the case of the osteoporosis DCE data (p = 0.21), whereas in the case of the HPV DCE data, the Hybrid RUM-RRM model outperformed the RUM model (p implied by the two models can vary substantially. Differences in model fit between RUM, RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM were found to be small. Although our study did not show significant differences in parameter ratios, the RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM models did feature considerable differences in terms of the trade-offs implied by these ratios. In combination, our results suggest that RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM modelling approach hold the potential of offering new and policy-relevant insights for health researchers and policy makers.

  13. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  14. System Convergence in Transport Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Cantarella, Guilio E.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of most applied transport models is the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium solution that balances demand x(t) and supply t(x). The demand consists of the people that travel in the transport system and on the defined network, whereas the supply consists of the resulting...... level-of-service attributes (e.g., travel time and cost) offered to travellers. An important source of complexity is the congestion, which causes increasing demand to affect travel time in a non-linear way. Transport models most often involve separate models for traffic assignment and demand modelling...... iterating between a route-choice (demand) model and a time-flow (supply) model. It is generally recognised that a simple iteration scheme where the level-of-service level is fed directly to the route-choice and vice versa may exhibit an unstable pattern and lead to cyclic unstable solutions. It can be shown...

  15. Effect of the route of administration on the biodistribution of radioiodinated OV-TL 3 F(ab')2 in experimental ovarian cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tibben, J.G.; Massuger, L.F.A.G.; Boerman, O.C.; Borm, G.F.; Claessens, R.A.M.J.; Corstens, F.H.M.

    1994-01-01

    The effect of the route administration on the distribution of radioiodinated OV-TL 3 F(ab') 2 was studied in Balb/c female mice with intraperitoneal or subcutaneous ovarian carcinoma xenografts. In the intraperitoneal tumour model in which both ascites and solid tumour deposits were present, intraperitoneal administration resulted in a lower estimated radiation dose to blood as compared with intravenous administration. In this model normalization to equal estimated radiation doses to blood for both routes of administration indicated that a twice as high estimated radiation dose can be guided to solid intraperitoneal tumour deposits following intraperitoneal administration. Evacuation of ascitic tumour cells prior to monoclonal antibody injection further increased the estimated radiation dose to solid intraperitoneal tumour deposits following intraperitoneal delivery. Following simultaneous intravenous and intraperitoneal injection of the monoclonal antibody, tissue uptake showed no relevant differences in the subcutaneous tumour model. Overall, the intraperitoneal route of administration was found to be the best choice for therapeutic delivery of iodine-131 labelled monoclonal antibodies. (orig.)

  16. Using radar altimetry to update a routing model of the Zambezi River Basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michailovsky, Claire Irene B.; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Satellite radar altimetry allows for the global monitoring of lakes and river levels. However, the widespread use of altimetry for hydrological studies is limited by the coarse temporal and spatial resolution provided by current altimetric missions and the fact that discharge rather than level...... is needed for hydrological applications. To overcome these limitations, altimetry river levels can be combined with hydrological modeling in a dataassimilation framework. This study focuses on the updating of a river routing model of the Zambezi using river levels from radar altimetry. A hydrological model...... of the basin was built to simulate the land phase of the water cycle and produce inflows to a Muskingum routing model. River altimetry from the ENVISAT mission was then used to update the storages in the reaches of the Muskingum model using the Extended Kalman Filter. The method showed improvements in modeled...

  17. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

    2015-01-01

    Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

  18. Effect of simplicity and attractiveness on route selection for different journey types

    OpenAIRE

    Cook, S; Ruddle, RA

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of six attributes, associated with simplicity or attractiveness, on route preference for three pedestrian journey types (everyday, leisure and tourist). Using stated choice preference experiments with computer generated scenes, participants were asked to choose one of a pair of routes showing either two levels of the same attribute (experiment 1) or different attributes (experiment 2). Contrary to predictions, vegetation was the most influential for both ev...

  19. Parameterizing road construction in route-based road weather models: can ground-penetrating radar provide any answers?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, D S; Chapman, L; Thornes, J E

    2011-01-01

    A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of a 32 km mixed urban and rural study route is undertaken to assess the usefulness of GPR as a tool for parameterizing road construction in a route-based road weather forecast model. It is shown that GPR can easily identify even the smallest of bridges along the route, which previous thermal mapping surveys have identified as thermal singularities with implications for winter road maintenance. Using individual GPR traces measured at each forecast point along the route, an inflexion point detection algorithm attempts to identify the depth of the uppermost subsurface layers at each forecast point for use in a road weather model instead of existing ordinal road-type classifications. This approach has the potential to allow high resolution modelling of road construction and bridge decks on a scale previously not possible within a road weather model, but initial results reveal that significant future research will be required to unlock the full potential that this technology can bring to the road weather industry. (technical design note)

  20. Choosing the safest route: frog orientation in an agricultural landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazerolle, M.J.; Vos, C.C.

    2006-01-01

    Orientation is a key component to successful movements between habitats. We hypothesized that barren agricultural landscapes hinder the ability of frogs to orient and move between habitats. Specifically, we predicted that when presented with a choice between a short route through a hostile

  1. Testing process predictions of models of risky choice: a quantitative model comparison approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brandstätter, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or non-linear functions thereof) and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models). Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models). We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up) and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise). In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly); acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988) called “similarity.” In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies. PMID:24151472

  2. Testing Process Predictions of Models of Risky Choice: A Quantitative Model Comparison Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten ePachur

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or nonlinear functions thereof and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models. Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models. We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, & Hertwig, 2006, and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise. In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly; acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988 called similarity. In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies.

  3. Overview of en route noise prediction using a integrated noise model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-20

    En route aircraft noise is often ignored in aircraft noise modeling because large amounts of noise attenuation due to long propagation distances between the aircraft and the receivers on the ground, reduced power in cruise flight compared to takeoff ...

  4. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  5. A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

  6. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  7. Capacity Constrained Routing Algorithms for Evacuation Route Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lu, Qingsong; George, Betsy; Shekhar, Shashi

    2006-01-01

    .... In this paper, we propose a new approach, namely a capacity constrained routing planner which models capacity as a time series and generalizes shortest path algorithms to incorporate capacity constraints...

  8. Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System (WebTRAGIS) User's Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelhaugh, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    In the early 1980s, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed two transportation routing models: HIGHWAY, which predicts truck transportation routes, and INTERLINE, which predicts rail transportation routes. Both of these models have been used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) community for a variety of routing needs over the years. One of the primary uses of the models has been to determine population-density information, which is used as input for risk assessment with the RADTRAN model, which is available on the TRANSNET computer system. During the recent years, advances in the development of geographic information systems (GISs) have resulted in increased demands from the user community for a GIS version of the ORNL routing models. In April 1994, the DOE Transportation Management Division (EM-261) held a Baseline Requirements Assessment Session with transportation routing experts and users of the HIGHWAY and INTERLINE models. As a result of the session, the development of a new GIS routing model, Transportation Routing Analysis GIS (TRAGIS), was initiated. TRAGIS is a user-friendly, GIS-based transportation and analysis computer model. The older HIGHWAY and INTERLINE models are useful to calculate routes, but they cannot display a graphic of the calculated route. Consequently, many users have experienced difficulty determining the proper node for facilities and have been confused by or have misinterpreted the text-based listing from the older routing models. Some of the primary reasons for the development of TRAGIS are (a) to improve the ease of selecting locations for routing, (b) to graphically display the calculated route, and (c) to provide for additional geographic analysis of the route

  9. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  10. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  11. A location-routing problem model with multiple periods and fuzzy demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Nadizadeh

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD. It is given on input a set of identical vehicles (each having a capacity, a fixed cost and availability level, a set of depots with restricted capacities and opening costs, a set of customers with fuzzy demands, and a planning horizon with multiple periods. The problem consists of determining the depots to be opened only in the first period of the planning horizon, the customers and the vehicles to be assigned to each opened depot, and performing the routes that may be changed in each time period due to fuzzy demands. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP model has been designed using credibility theory and a hybrid heuristic algorithm with four phases is presented in order to solve the problem. To obtain the best value of the fuzzy parameters of the model and show the influence of the availability level of vehicles on final solution, some computational experiments are carried out. The validity of the model is then evaluated in contrast with CLRP-FD's models in the literature. The results indicate that the model and the proposed algorithm are robust and could be used in real world problems.

  12. Turning to Teaching: Gender and Career Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raggl, Andrea; Troman, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    As the largest public sector institution in the United Kingdom, education is a key site for studying the context of "choice" and changes in the identities of professional workers in contemporary society. Recruitment and retention problems in education have led to the creation of new routes into teaching to attract career changers from…

  13. A Conceptual Model of Leisure-Time Choice Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergier, Michel J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of studying the gap between predisposition and actual behavior of consumers of spectator sports is discussed. A model is drawn from the areas of behavioral sciences, consumer behavior, and leisure research. The model is constructed around the premise that choice is primarily a function of personal, product, and environmental factors. (JN)

  14. Do dual-route models accurately predict reading and spelling performance in individuals with acquired alexia and agraphia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapcsak, Steven Z; Henry, Maya L; Teague, Sommer L; Carnahan, Susan D; Beeson, Pélagie M

    2007-06-18

    Coltheart and co-workers [Castles, A., Bates, T. C., & Coltheart, M. (2006). John Marshall and the developmental dyslexias. Aphasiology, 20, 871-892; Coltheart, M., Rastle, K., Perry, C., Langdon, R., & Ziegler, J. (2001). DRC: A dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. Psychological Review, 108, 204-256] have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper, we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing.

  15. Meeting Air Transportation Demand in 2025 by Using Larger Aircraft and Alternative Routing to Complement NextGen Operational Improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.

    2010-01-01

    A study was performed that investigates the use of larger aircraft and alternative routing to complement the capacity benefits expected from the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in 2025. National Airspace System (NAS) delays for the 2025 demand projected by the Transportation Systems Analysis Models (TSAM) were assessed using NASA s Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). The shift in demand from commercial airline to automobile and from one airline route to another was investigated by adding the route delays determined from the ACES simulation to the travel times used in the TSAM and re-generating new flight scenarios. The ACES simulation results from this study determined that NextGen Operational Improvements alone do not provide sufficient airport capacity to meet the projected demand for passenger air travel in 2025 without significant system delays. Using larger aircraft with more seats on high-demand routes and introducing new direct routes, where demand warrants, significantly reduces delays, complementing NextGen improvements. Another significant finding of this study is that the adaptive behavior of passengers to avoid congested airline-routes is an important factor when projecting demand for transportation systems. Passengers will choose an alternative mode of transportation or alternative airline routes to avoid congested routes, thereby reducing delays to acceptable levels for the 2025 scenario; the penalty being that alternative routes and the option to drive increases overall trip time by 0.4% and may be less convenient than the first-choice route.

  16. Indoor Pedestrian Navigation Based on Hybrid Route Planning and Location Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Grønbæk, Kaj; Scharling, Tejs

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces methods and services called PerPosNav for development of custom indoor pedestrian navigation applications to be deployed on a variety of platforms. PerPosNav combines symbolic and geometry based modeling of buildings, and in turn combines graph-based and geometric route...

  17. Evidence for the involvement of a nonlexical route in the repetition of familiar words: A comparison of single and dual route models of auditory repetition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanley, J Richard; Dell, Gary S; Kay, Janice; Baron, Rachel

    2004-03-01

    In this paper, we attempt to simulate the picture naming and auditory repetition performance of two patients reported by Hanley, Kay, and Edwards (2002), who were matched for picture naming score but who differed significantly in their ability to repeat familiar words. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that the model of naming and repetition put forward by Foygel and Dell (2000) is better able to accommodate this pattern of performance than the model put forward by Dell, Schwartz, Martin, Saffran, and Gagnon (1997). Nevertheless, Foygel and Dell's model underpredicted the repetition performance of both patients. In Experiment 2, we attempt to simulate their performance using a new dual route model of repetition in which Foygel and Dell's model is augmented by an additional nonlexical repetition pathway. The new model provided a more accurate fit to the real-word repetition performance of both patients. It is argued that the results provide support for dual route models of auditory repetition.

  18. Robustness of airline route networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lordan, Oriol; Sallan, Jose M.; Escorihuela, Nuria; Gonzalez-Prieto, David

    2016-03-01

    Airlines shape their route network by defining their routes through supply and demand considerations, paying little attention to network performance indicators, such as network robustness. However, the collapse of an airline network can produce high financial costs for the airline and all its geographical area of influence. The aim of this study is to analyze the topology and robustness of the network route of airlines following Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) and Full Service Carriers (FSCs) business models. Results show that FSC hubs are more central than LCC bases in their route network. As a result, LCC route networks are more robust than FSC networks.

  19. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  20. Modeling and Optimization of Inventory-Distribution Routing Problem for Agriculture Products Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Liao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model, a two-layer genetic algorithm based on oddment modification is proposed, in which the upper layer is to determine the distribution period and quantity and the lower layer is to seek the optimal order cycle, quantity, distribution routes, and the rational oddment modification number for the distributor. By simulation experiments, the validity of the algorithms is demonstrated, and the two management modes are compared.

  1. Modelling public transport route choice with multiple access and egress modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, Ties; de Romph, E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2013-01-01

    The current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. Public transport (PT) is an important mode to alleviate these problems. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is important to model the behaviour of the

  2. Modelling Public Transport Route Choice, with Multiple Access and Egress Modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; De Romph, E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  3. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Provance, Mike, E-mail: mprovanc@odu.edu [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  4. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Provance, Mike; Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G.

    2011-01-01

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  5. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  6. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Taikjin; Lee, Hyuk-jae

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics

  7. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Hyuk-jae; Lee, Taikjin

    2014-03-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.

  8. Comparative empirical analysis of flow-weighted transit route networks in R-space and evolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ailing; Zang, Guangzhi; He, Zhengbing; Guan, Wei

    2017-05-01

    Urban public transit system is a typical mixed complex network with dynamic flow, and its evolution should be a process coupling topological structure with flow dynamics, which has received little attention. This paper presents the R-space to make a comparative empirical analysis on Beijing’s flow-weighted transit route network (TRN) and we found that both the Beijing’s TRNs in the year of 2011 and 2015 exhibit the scale-free properties. As such, we propose an evolution model driven by flow to simulate the development of TRNs with consideration of the passengers’ dynamical behaviors triggered by topological change. The model simulates that the evolution of TRN is an iterative process. At each time step, a certain number of new routes are generated driven by travel demands, which leads to dynamical evolution of new routes’ flow and triggers perturbation in nearby routes that will further impact the next round of opening new routes. We present the theoretical analysis based on the mean-field theory, as well as the numerical simulation for this model. The results obtained agree well with our empirical analysis results, which indicate that our model can simulate the TRN evolution with scale-free properties for distributions of node’s strength and degree. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the global evolutional mechanism of transit network that will be used to exploit planning and design strategies for real TRNs.

  9. Application of the MacCormack scheme to overland flow routing for high-spatial resolution distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Liang, Xu; Xu, Yi; Hernández, Felipe; Li, Lianxia

    2018-03-01

    Although process-based distributed hydrological models (PDHMs) are evolving rapidly over the last few decades, their extensive applications are still challenged by the computational expenses. This study attempted, for the first time, to apply the numerically efficient MacCormack algorithm to overland flow routing in a representative high-spatial resolution PDHM, i.e., the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM), in order to improve its computational efficiency. The analytical verification indicates that both the semi and full versions of the MacCormack schemes exhibit robust numerical stability and are more computationally efficient than the conventional explicit linear scheme. The full-version outperforms the semi-version in terms of simulation accuracy when a same time step is adopted. The semi-MacCormack scheme was implemented into DHSVM (version 3.1.2) to solve the kinematic wave equations for overland flow routing. The performance and practicality of the enhanced DHSVM-MacCormack model was assessed by performing two groups of modeling experiments in the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The experiments show that DHSVM-MacCormack can considerably improve the computational efficiency without compromising the simulation accuracy of the original DHSVM model. More specifically, with the same computational environment and model settings, the computational time required by DHSVM-MacCormack can be reduced to several dozen minutes for a simulation period of three months (in contrast with one day and a half by the original DHSVM model) without noticeable sacrifice of the accuracy. The MacCormack scheme proves to be applicable to overland flow routing in DHSVM, which implies that it can be coupled into other PHDMs for watershed routing to either significantly improve their computational efficiency or to make the kinematic wave routing for high resolution modeling computational feasible.

  10. A discrete choice approach to define individual parking choice behaviour for the Parkagent model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaliq, A.; Van Der Waerden, P.J.H.J.; Janssens, D.

    2017-01-01

    PARKAGENT is an agent based model for simulating parking search in the city. In PARKAGENT, the agents choose a parking spot based on the expected number of free parking spaces, distance to destination and length of parking space. For a true representation of underlying parking choice behaviour of

  11. Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

  12. Performance analysis of routing protocols for IoT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manda, Sridhar; Nalini, N.

    2018-04-01

    Internet of Things (IoT) is an arrangement of advancements that are between disciplinary. It is utilized to have compelling combination of both physical and computerized things. With IoT physical things can have personal virtual identities and participate in distributed computing. Realization of IoT needs the usage of sensors based on the sector for which IoT is integrated. For instance, in healthcare domain, IoT needs to have integration with wearable sensors used by patients. As sensor devices produce huge amount of data, often called big data, there should be efficient routing protocols in place. To the extent remote systems is worried there are some current protocols, for example, OLSR, DSR and AODV. It additionally tosses light into Trust based routing protocol for low-power and lossy systems (TRPL) for IoT. These are broadly utilized remote directing protocols. As IoT is developing round the corner, it is basic to investigate routing protocols that and evaluate their execution regarding throughput, end to end delay, and directing overhead. The execution experiences can help in settling on very much educated choices while incorporating remote systems with IoT. In this paper, we analyzed different routing protocols and their performance is compared. It is found that AODV showed better performance than other routing protocols aforementioned.

  13. An Evolutionary Mobility Aware Multi-Objective Hybrid Routing Algorithm for Heterogeneous Wireless Sensor Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulkarni, Nandkumar P.; Prasad, Neeli R.; Prasad, Ramjee

    deliberation. To tackle these two problems, Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks (MWSNs) is a better choice. In MWSN, Sensor nodes move freely to a target area without the need for any special infrastructure. Due to mobility, the routing process in MWSN has become more complicated as connections in the network can...... such as Average Energy consumption, Control Overhead, Reaction Time, LQI, and HOP Count. The authors study the influence of energy heterogeneity and mobility of sensor nodes on the performance of EMRP. The Performance of EMRP compared with Simple Hybrid Routing Protocol (SHRP) and Dynamic Multi-Objective Routing...

  14. Vertex labeling and routing in self-similar outerplanar unclustered graphs modeling complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comellas, Francesc; Miralles, Alicia

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a labeling and optimal routing algorithm for a family of modular, self-similar, small-world graphs with clustering zero. Many properties of this family are comparable to those of networks associated with technological and biological systems with low clustering, such as the power grid, some electronic circuits and protein networks. For these systems, the existence of models with an efficient routing protocol is of interest to design practical communication algorithms in relation to dynamical processes (including synchronization) and also to understand the underlying mechanisms that have shaped their particular structure.

  15. Transport Routes Optimization Model Through Application of Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Bortas

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The transport policy of the European Union is based on the mission of restructuring road traffic into other and energy-favourable transport modes which have not been sufficiently represented yet. Therefore, the development of the inland waterway and rail transport, and connectivity in the intermodal transport network are development planning priorities of the European transport strategy. The aim of this research study was to apply the scientific methodology and thus analyse the factors that affect the distribution of the goods flows and by using the fuzzy logic to make an optimization model, according to the criteria of minimizing the costs and negative impact on the environment, for the selection of the optimal transport route. Testing of the model by simulation, was performed on the basis of evaluating the criteria of the influential parameters with unprecise and indefinite input parameters. The testing results show that by the distribution of the goods flow from road transport network to inland waterways or rail transport, can be predicted in advance and determine the transport route with optimal characteristics. The results of the performed research study will be used to improve the process of planning the transport service, with the aim of reducing the transport costs and environmental pollution.

  16. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  17. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

    2014-08-01

    Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

  19. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  20. War and peace: morphemes and full forms in a noninteractive activation parallel dual-route model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baayen, H; Schreuder, R

    This article introduces a computational tool for modeling the process of morphological segmentation in visual and auditory word recognition in the framework of a parallel dual-route model. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  1. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  2. The Time Window Vehicle Routing Problem Considering Closed Route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irsa Syahputri, Nenna; Mawengkang, Herman

    2017-12-01

    The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) determines the optimal set of routes used by a fleet of vehicles to serve a given set of customers on a predefined graph; the objective is to minimize the total travel cost (related to the travel times or distances) and operational cost (related to the number of vehicles used). In this paper we study a variant of the predefined graph: given a weighted graph G and vertices a and b, and given a set X of closed paths in G, find the minimum total travel cost of a-b path P such that no path in X is a subpath of P. Path P is allowed to repeat vertices and edges. We use integer programming model to describe the problem. A feasible neighbourhood approach is proposed to solve the model

  3. Optimal Effort in Consumer Choice : Theory and Experimental Evidence for Binary Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conlon, B.J.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2001-01-01

    This paper develops a theoretical model of optimal effort in consumer choice.The model extends previous consumer choice models in that the consumer not only chooses a product, but also decides how much effort to apply to a given choice problem.The model yields a unique optimal level of effort, which

  4. Routed planar networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Aldous

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling a road network as a planar graph seems very natural. However, in studying continuum limits of such networks it is useful to take {\\em routes} rather than {\\em edges} as primitives. This article is intended to introduce the relevant (discrete setting notion of {\\em routed network} to graph theorists. We give a naive classification of all 71 topologically different such networks on 4 leaves, and pose a variety of challenging research questions.

  5. Choices Matter, but How Do We Model Them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brelsford, C.; Dumas, M.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying interactions between social systems and the physical environment we live within has long been a major scientific challenge. Humans have had such a large influence on our environment that it is no longer reasonable to consider the behavior of an ecological or hydrological system from a purely `physical' perspective: imagining a system that excludes the influence of human choices and behavior. Understanding the role that human social choices play in the energy water nexus is crucial for developing accurate models in that space. The relatively new field of socio-hydrology is making progress towards understanding the role humans play in hydrological systems. While this fact is now widely recognized across the many academic fields that study water systems, we have yet to develop a coherent set of theories for how to model the behavior of these complex and highly interdependent socio-hydrological systems. How should we conceptualize hydrological systems as socio-ecological systems (i.e. system with variables, states, parameters, actors who can control certain variables and a sense of the desirability of states) within which the rigorous study of feedbacks becomes possible? This talk reviews the state of knowledge of how social decisions around water consumption, allocation, and transport influence and are influenced by the physical hydrology that water also moves within. We cover recent papers in socio-hydrology, engineering, water law, and institutional analysis. There have been several calls within socio-hydrology to model human social behavior endogenously along with the hydrology. These improvements are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales. We suggest two potential strategies for coupled models that allow endogenous water consumption behavior: a social first model which looks for empirical relationships between water consumption and allocation choices and the hydrological state, and a hydrology first model in which we look for regularities

  6. Interneuronal Mechanism for Tinbergen’s Hierarchical Model of Behavioral Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirger, Zsolt; Crossley, Michael; László, Zita; Naskar, Souvik; Kemenes, György; O’Shea, Michael; Benjamin, Paul R.; Kemenes, Ildikó

    2014-01-01

    Summary Recent studies of behavioral choice support the notion that the decision to carry out one behavior rather than another depends on the reconfiguration of shared interneuronal networks [1]. We investigated another decision-making strategy, derived from the classical ethological literature [2, 3], which proposes that behavioral choice depends on competition between autonomous networks. According to this model, behavioral choice depends on inhibitory interactions between incompatible hierarchically organized behaviors. We provide evidence for this by investigating the interneuronal mechanisms mediating behavioral choice between two autonomous circuits that underlie whole-body withdrawal [4, 5] and feeding [6] in the pond snail Lymnaea. Whole-body withdrawal is a defensive reflex that is initiated by tactile contact with predators. As predicted by the hierarchical model, tactile stimuli that evoke whole-body withdrawal responses also inhibit ongoing feeding in the presence of feeding stimuli. By recording neurons from the feeding and withdrawal networks, we found no direct synaptic connections between the interneuronal and motoneuronal elements that generate the two behaviors. Instead, we discovered that behavioral choice depends on the interaction between two unique types of interneurons with asymmetrical synaptic connectivity that allows withdrawal to override feeding. One type of interneuron, the Pleuro-Buccal (PlB), is an extrinsic modulatory neuron of the feeding network that completely inhibits feeding when excited by touch-induced monosynaptic input from the second type of interneuron, Pedal-Dorsal12 (PeD12). PeD12 plays a critical role in behavioral choice by providing a synaptic pathway joining the two behavioral networks that underlies the competitive dominance of whole-body withdrawal over feeding. PMID:25155505

  7. Simple relationship between the virial-route hypernetted-chain and the compressibility-route Percus-Yevick values of the fourth virial coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Andrés; Manzano, Gema

    2010-04-14

    As is well known, approximate integral equations for liquids, such as the hypernetted chain (HNC) and Percus-Yevick (PY) theories, are in general thermodynamically inconsistent in the sense that the macroscopic properties obtained from the spatial correlation functions depend on the route followed. In particular, the values of the fourth virial coefficient B(4) predicted by the HNC and PY approximations via the virial route differ from those obtained via the compressibility route. Despite this, it is shown in this paper that the value of B(4) obtained from the virial route in the HNC theory is exactly three halves the value obtained from the compressibility route in the PY theory, irrespective of the interaction potential (whether isotropic or not), the number of components, and the dimensionality of the system. This simple relationship is confirmed in one-component systems by analytical results for the one-dimensional penetrable-square-well model and the three-dimensional penetrable-sphere model, as well as by numerical results for the one-dimensional Lennard-Jones model, the one-dimensional Gaussian core model, and the three-dimensional square-well model.

  8. Comparison of MANET Routing Protocols in Different Traffic and Mobility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Baraković

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Routing protocol election in MANET (Mobile Ad Hoc Network is a great challenge, because of its frequent topology changes and routing overhead. This paper compares performances of three routing protocols: Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV, Ad Hoc Ondemand Distance Vector (AODV and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR, based on results analysis obtained using simulations with different load and mobility scenarios performed with Network Simulator version 2 (NS-2. In low load and low mobility scenarios routing protocols perform in a similar manner. However, with mobility and load increasing DSR outperforms AODV and DSDV protocols.

  9. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  10. Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horne, M.; Jaccard, M.; Tiedemann, K.

    2005-01-01

    Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. (author)

  11. Multifactor-Driven Hierarchical Routing on Enterprise Service Bus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Xueqiang; Tang, Xinhuai; Yuan, Xiaozhou; Chen, Delai; Luo, Xiangfeng

    Message Routing is the foremost functionality on Enterprise Service Bus (ESB), but current ESB products don't provide an expected solution for it, especially in the aspects of runtime route change mechanism and service orchestration model. In order to solve the above drawbacks, this paper proposes a multifactor-driven hierarchical routing (MDHR) model. MDHR defines three layers for message routing on ESB. Message layer gives the original support for message delivery. Application layer can integration or encapsulate some legacy applications or un-standard services. Business layer introduces business model to supplies developers with a business rule configuration, which supports enterprise integration patterns and simplifies the service orchestration on ESB.

  12. Simulation of optimal arctic routes using a numerical sea ice model based on an ice-coupled ocean circulation method

    OpenAIRE

    Jong-Ho Nam; Inha Park; Ho Jin Lee; Mi Ok Kwon; Kyungsik Choi; Young-Kyo Seo

    2013-01-01

    Ever since the Arctic region has opened its mysterious passage to mankind, continuous attempts to take advantage of its fastest route across the region has been made. The Arctic region is still covered by thick ice and thus finding a feasible navigating route is essential for an economical voyage. To find the optimal route, it is necessary to establish an efficient transit model that enables us to simulate every possible route in advance. In this work, an enhanced algorithm to determine the o...

  13. Iconic memory-based omnidirectional route panorama navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Yasushi; Imai, Kousuke; Tsuji, Kentaro; Yachida, Masahiko

    2005-01-01

    A route navigation method for a mobile robot with an omnidirectional image sensor is described. The route is memorized from a series of consecutive omnidirectional images of the horizon when the robot moves to its goal. While the robot is navigating to the goal point, input is matched against the memorized spatio-temporal route pattern by using dual active contour models and the exact robot position and orientation is estimated from the converged shape of the active contour models.

  14. Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-05-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  16. Modeling and Optimization of Inventory-Distribution Routing Problem for Agriculture Products Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Liao, Li; Li, Jianfeng; Wu, Yaohua

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model,...

  17. Multi-objective evacuation routing optimization for toxic cloud releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gai, Wen-mei; Deng, Yun-feng; Jiang, Zhong-an; Li, Jing; Du, Yan

    2017-01-01

    This paper develops a model for assessing the risks associated with the evacuation process in response to potential chemical accidents, based on which a multi-objective evacuation routing model for toxic cloud releases is proposed taking into account that the travel speed on each arc will be affected by disaster extension. The objectives of the evacuation routing model are to minimize travel time and individual evacuation risk along a path respectively. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed to solve the multi-objective evacuation routing model. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and algorithms presented in this paper. And, the methodology with appropriate modification is suitable for supporting decisions in assessing emergency route selection in other cases (fires, nuclear accidents). - Highlights: • A model for assessing and visualizing the risks is developed. • A multi-objective evacuation routing model is proposed for toxic cloud releases. • A modified Dijkstra algorithm is designed to obtain an solution of the model. • Two heuristic algorithms have been developed as the optimization tool.

  18. Delay Management with Re-Routing of Passengers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A.B. Dollevoet (Twan); D. Huisman (Dennis); M.E. Schmidt (Marie); A. Schöbel (Anita)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe question of delay management is whether trains should wait for a delayed feeder train or should depart on time. In classical delay management models passengers always take their originally planned route. In this paper, we propose a model where re-routing of passengers is

  19. A comparative study of machine learning classifiers for modeling travel mode choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenauer, J; Helbich, M

    2017-01-01

    The analysis of travel mode choice is an important task in transportation planning and policy making in order to understand and predict travel demands. While advances in machine learning have led to numerous powerful classifiers, their usefulness for modeling travel mode choice remains largely

  20. Nutrieconomic model can facilitate healthy and low-cost food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primavesi, Laura; Caccavelli, Giovanna; Ciliberto, Alessandra; Pauze, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    Promotion of healthy eating can no longer be postponed as a priority, given the alarming growth rate of chronic degenerative diseases in Western countries. We elaborated a nutrieconomic model to assess and identify the most nutritious and affordable food choices. Seventy-one food items representing the main food categories were included and their nationally representative prices monitored. Food composition was determined using CRA-NUT (Centro di Ricerca per gli Alimenti e la Nutrizione) and IEO (Istituto Europeo di Oncologia) databases. To define food nutritional quality, the mean adequacy ratio and mean excess ratio were combined. Both prices and nutritional quality were normalised for the edible food content and for the recommended serving sizes for the Italian adult population. Stores located in different provinces throughout Italy. Not applicable. Cereals and legumes presented very similar nutritional qualities and prices per serving. Seasonal fruits and vegetables presented differentiated nutritional qualities and almost equal prices. Products of animal origin showed similar nutritional qualities and varied prices: the best nutrieconomic choices were milk, oily fish and poultry for the dairy products, fish and meat groups, respectively. Analysing two balanced weekly menus, our nutrieconomic model was able to note a significant decrease in cost of approximately 30 % by varying animal-protein sources without affecting nutritional quality. Healthy eating does not necessarily imply spending large amounts of money but rather being able to make nutritionally optimal choices. The nutrieconomic model is an innovative and practical way to help consumers make correct food choices and nutritionists increase the compliance of their patients.

  1. Great Ellipse Route Planning Based on Space Vector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Wenchao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at the problem of navigation error caused by unified earth model in great circle route planning using sphere model and modern navigation equipment using ellipsoid mode, a method of great ellipse route planning based on space vector is studied. By using space vector algebra method, the vertex of great ellipse is solved directly, and description of great ellipse based on major-axis vector and minor-axis vector is presented. Then calculation formulas of great ellipse azimuth and distance are deduced using two basic vectors. Finally, algorithms of great ellipse route planning are studied, especially equal distance route planning algorithm based on Newton-Raphson(N-R method. Comparative examples show that the difference of route planning between great circle and great ellipse is significant, using algorithms of great ellipse route planning can eliminate the navigation error caused by the great circle route planning, and effectively improve the accuracy of navigation calculation.

  2. Entanglement-Gradient Routing for Quantum Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyongyosi, Laszlo; Imre, Sandor

    2017-10-27

    We define the entanglement-gradient routing scheme for quantum repeater networks. The routing framework fuses the fundamentals of swarm intelligence and quantum Shannon theory. Swarm intelligence provides nature-inspired solutions for problem solving. Motivated by models of social insect behavior, the routing is performed using parallel threads to determine the shortest path via the entanglement gradient coefficient, which describes the feasibility of the entangled links and paths of the network. The routing metrics are derived from the characteristics of entanglement transmission and relevant measures of entanglement distribution in quantum networks. The method allows a moderate complexity decentralized routing in quantum repeater networks. The results can be applied in experimental quantum networking, future quantum Internet, and long-distance quantum communications.

  3. A novel concurrent pictorial choice model of mood-induced relapse in hazardous drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Lorna; Hogarth, Lee

    2017-12-01

    This study tested whether a novel concurrent pictorial choice procedure, inspired by animal self-administration models, is sensitive to the motivational effect of negative mood induction on alcohol-seeking in hazardous drinkers. Forty-eight hazardous drinkers (scoring ≥7 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Inventory) recruited from the community completed measures of alcohol dependence, depression, and drinking coping motives. Baseline alcohol-seeking was measured by percent choice to enlarge alcohol- versus food-related thumbnail images in two alternative forced-choice trials. Negative and positive mood was then induced in succession by means of self-referential affective statements and music, and percent alcohol choice was measured after each induction in the same way as baseline. Baseline alcohol choice correlated with alcohol dependence severity, r = .42, p = .003, drinking coping motives (in two questionnaires, r = .33, p = .02 and r = .46, p = .001), and depression symptoms, r = .31, p = .03. Alcohol choice was increased by negative mood over baseline (p choice was not related to gender, alcohol dependence, drinking to cope, or depression symptoms (ps ≥ .37). The concurrent pictorial choice measure is a sensitive index of the relative value of alcohol, and provides an accessible experimental model to study negative mood-induced relapse mechanisms in hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. A framework for estimating health state utility values within a discrete choice experiment: modeling risky choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Angela; Spencer, Anne; Moffatt, Peter

    2015-04-01

    There has been recent interest in using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to derive health state utilities for use in quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations, but challenges remain. We set out to develop a risk-based DCE approach to derive utility values for health states that allowed 1) utility values to be anchored directly to normal health and death and 2) worse than dead health states to be assessed in the same manner as better than dead states. Furthermore, we set out to estimate alternative models of risky choice within a DCE model. A survey was designed that incorporated a risk-based DCE and a "modified" standard gamble (SG). Health state utility values were elicited for 3 EQ-5D health states assuming "standard" expected utility (EU) preferences. The DCE model was then generalized to allow for rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) preferences, thereby allowing for probability weighting. A convenience sample of 60 students was recruited and data collected in small groups. Under the assumption of "standard" EU preferences, the utility values derived within the DCE corresponded fairly closely to the mean results from the modified SG. Under the assumption of RDU preferences, the utility values estimated are somewhat lower than under the assumption of standard EU, suggesting that the latter may be biased upward. Applying the correct model of risky choice is important whether a modified SG or a risk-based DCE is deployed. It is, however, possible to estimate a probability weighting function within a DCE and estimate "unbiased" utility values directly, which is not possible within a modified SG. We conclude by setting out the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches in this context. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  6. Routing Data Authentication in Wireless Networks; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TORGERSON, MARK D.; VAN LEEUWEN, BRIAN P.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss several specific threats directed at the routing data of an ad hoc network. We address security issues that arise from wrapping authentication mechanisms around ad hoc routing data. We show that this bolt-on approach to security may make certain attacks more difficult, but still leaves the network routing data vulnerable. We also show that under a certain adversarial model, most existing routing protocols cannot be secured with the aid of digital signatures

  7. The Effect of Trail Pheromone and Path Confinement on Learning of Complex Routes in the Ant Lasius niger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Weichselgartner, Tobias; Bernadou, Abel; Heinze, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Route learning is key to the survival of many central place foragers, such as bees and many ants. For ants which lay pheromone trails, the presence of a trail may act as an important source of information about whether an error has been made. The presence of trail pheromone has been demonstrated to support route learning, and the effect of pheromones on route choice have been reported to persist even after the pheromones have been removed. This could be explained in two ways: the pheromone may constrain the ants onto the correct route, thus preventing errors and aiding learning. Alternatively, the pheromones may act as a 'reassurance', signalling that the learner is on the right path and that learning the path is worthwhile. Here, we disentangle pheromone presence from route confinement in order to test these hypotheses, using the ant Lasius niger as a model. Unexpectedly, we did not find any evidence that pheromones support route learning. Indeed, there was no evidence that ants confined to the correct route learned at all. Thus, while we cannot support the 'reassurance' hypothesis, we can rule out the 'confinement' hypothesis. Other findings, such as a reduction in pheromone deposition in the presence of trail pheromones, are remarkably consistent with previous experiments. As previously reported, ants which make errors on their outward journey upregulate pheromone deposition on their return. Surprisingly, ants which would go on to make an error down-regulate pheromone deposition on their outward journey, hinting at a capacity for ants to gauge the quality of their own memories.

  8. The Effect of Trail Pheromone and Path Confinement on Learning of Complex Routes in the Ant Lasius niger.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomer J Czaczkes

    Full Text Available Route learning is key to the survival of many central place foragers, such as bees and many ants. For ants which lay pheromone trails, the presence of a trail may act as an important source of information about whether an error has been made. The presence of trail pheromone has been demonstrated to support route learning, and the effect of pheromones on route choice have been reported to persist even after the pheromones have been removed. This could be explained in two ways: the pheromone may constrain the ants onto the correct route, thus preventing errors and aiding learning. Alternatively, the pheromones may act as a 'reassurance', signalling that the learner is on the right path and that learning the path is worthwhile. Here, we disentangle pheromone presence from route confinement in order to test these hypotheses, using the ant Lasius niger as a model. Unexpectedly, we did not find any evidence that pheromones support route learning. Indeed, there was no evidence that ants confined to the correct route learned at all. Thus, while we cannot support the 'reassurance' hypothesis, we can rule out the 'confinement' hypothesis. Other findings, such as a reduction in pheromone deposition in the presence of trail pheromones, are remarkably consistent with previous experiments. As previously reported, ants which make errors on their outward journey upregulate pheromone deposition on their return. Surprisingly, ants which would go on to make an error down-regulate pheromone deposition on their outward journey, hinting at a capacity for ants to gauge the quality of their own memories.

  9. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  10. Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

    2018-03-01

    Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

  11. A Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Study of Lexical Decision Task Supports the Dual Route Model and the Phonological Deficit Theory of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Itamar; Izzetoglu, Meltem; Izzetoglu, Kurtulus; Onaral, Banu

    2014-01-01

    The dual route model (DRM) of reading suggests two routes of reading development: the phonological and the orthographic routes. It was proposed that although the two routes are active in the process of reading; the first is more involved at the initial stages of reading acquisition, whereas the latter needs more reading training to mature. A…

  12. OSM-ORIENTED METHOD OF MULTIMODAL ROUTE PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing pervasiveness of basic facilitate of transportation and information, the need of multimodal route planning is becoming more essential in the fields of communication and transportation, urban planning, logistics management, etc. This article mainly described an OSM-oriented method of multimodal route planning. Firstly, it introduced how to extract the information we need from OSM data and build proper network model and storage model; then it analysed the accustomed cost standard adopted by most travellers; finally, we used shortest path algorithm to calculate the best route with multiple traffic means.

  13. Modeling and Performance Analysis of Route-Over and Mesh-Under Routing Schemes in 6LoWPAN under Error-Prone Channel Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Han Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available 6LoWPAN technology has attracted extensive attention recently. It is because 6LoWPAN is one of Internet of Things standard and it adapts to IPv6 protocol stack over low-rate wireless personal area network, such as IEEE 802.15.4. One view is that IP architecture is not suitable for low-rate wireless personal area network. It is a challenge to implement the IPv6 protocol stack into IEEE 802.15.4 devices due to that the size of IPv6 packet is much larger than the maximum packet size of IEEE 802.15.4 in data link layer. In order to solve this problem, 6LoWPAN provides header compression to reduce the transmission overhead for IP packets. In addition, two selected routing schemes, mesh-under and route-over routing schemes, are also proposed in 6LoWPAN to forward IP fragmentations under IEEE 802.15.4 radio link. The distinction is based on which layer of the 6LoWPAN protocol stack is in charge of routing decisions. In route-over routing scheme, the routing distinction is taken at the network layer and, in mesh-under, is taken by the adaptation layer. Thus, the goal of this research is to understand the performance of two routing schemes in 6LoWPAN under error-prone channel condition.

  14. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  15. The restricted stochastic user equilibrium with threshold model: Large-scale application and parameter testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Watling, David P.

    2017-01-01

    Equilibrium model (DUE), by combining the strengths of the Boundedly Rational User Equilibrium model and the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium model (RSUE). Thereby, the RSUET model reaches an equilibrated solution in which the flow is distributed according to Random Utility Theory among a consistently...... model improves the behavioural realism, especially for high congestion cases. Also, fast and well-behaved convergence to equilibrated solutions among non-universal choice sets is observed across different congestion levels, choice model scale parameters, and algorithm step sizes. Clearly, the results...... highlight that the RSUET outperforms the MNP SUE in terms of convergence, calculation time and behavioural realism. The choice set composition is validated by using 16,618 observed route choices collected by GPS devices in the same network and observing their reproduction within the equilibrated choice sets...

  16. Fast reactor calculational route for Pu burning core design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, S. [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Engineering Center

    1998-01-01

    This document provides a description of a calculational route, used in the Reactor Physics Research Section for sensitivity studies and initial design optimization calculations for fast reactor cores. The main purpose in producing this document was to provide a description of and user guides to the calculational methods, in English, as an aid to any future user of the calculational route who is (like the author) handicapped by a lack of literacy in Japanese. The document also provides for all users a compilation of information on the various parts of the calculational route, all in a single reference. In using the calculational route (to model Pu burning reactors) the author identified a number of areas where an improvement in the modelling of the standard calculational route was warranted. The document includes comments on and explanations of the modelling assumptions in the various calculations. Practical information on the use of the calculational route and the computer systems is also given. (J.P.N.)

  17. Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

    2017-01-01

    This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

  18. A multicast tree aggregation algorithm in wavelength-routed WDM networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hsu-Chen; Kuo, Chin-Chun; Lin, Frank Y.

    2005-02-01

    Wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) has been considered a promising transmission technology in optical communication networks. With the continuous advance in optical technology, WDM network will play an important role in wide area backbone networks. Optical wavelength switching, compared with optical packet switching, is a more mature and more cost-effective choice for optical switching technologies. Besides, the technology of time division multiplexing in optical communication networks has been working smoothly for a long time. In the proposed research, the problem of multicast groups aggregation and multicast routing and wavelength assignment in wavelength-routed WDM network is studied. The optical cross connect switches in the problem are assumed to have limited optical multicast/splitting and TDM functionalities. Given the physical network topology and capacity, the objective is to maximize the total revenue by means of utmost merging multicast groups into larger macro-groups. The groups in the same macro-group will share a multicast tree to conduct data transmission. The problem is formulated as an optimization problem, where the objective function is to maximize the total revenue subject to capacity constraints of components in the optical network, wavelength continuity constraints, and tree topology constraints. The decision variables in the formulations include the merging results between groups, multicast tree routing assignment and wavelength assignment. The basic approach to the algorithm development for this model is Lagrangean relaxation in conjunction with a number of optimization techniques. In computational experiments, the proposed algorithms are evaluated on different network topologies and perform efficiently and effectively according to the experiment results.

  19. Coordinated Platoon Routing in a Metropolitan Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, Jeffrey; Munson, Todd; Sokolov, Vadim

    2016-10-10

    Platooning vehicles—connected and automated vehicles traveling with small intervehicle distances—use less fuel because of reduced aerodynamic drag. Given a network de- fined by vertex and edge sets and a set of vehicles with origin/destination nodes/times, we model and solve the combinatorial optimization problem of coordinated routing of vehicles in a manner that routes them to their destination on time while using the least amount of fuel. Common approaches decompose the platoon coordination and vehicle routing into separate problems. Our model addresses both problems simultaneously to obtain the best solution. We use modern modeling techniques and constraints implied from analyzing the platoon routing problem to address larger numbers of vehicles and larger networks than previously considered. While the numerical method used is unable to certify optimality for candidate solutions to all networks and parameters considered, we obtain excellent solutions in approximately one minute for much larger networks and vehicle sets than previously considered in the literature.

  20. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  1. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-10-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

  2. Constructing food choice decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

    2009-12-01

    Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

  3. Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Bo; Zhang, Ronghui; Lou, Xiaoming

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers’ daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers’ study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers’ study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers’ endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties. PMID:27959903

  4. Playful Mobility Choices: Motivating informed mobility decision making by applying game mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Millonig

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Motivating people to change their mobility behaviour patterns towards more sustainable forms of mobility is one of the major challenges regarding climate change and quality of life. Recently, an increasing amount of attempts to use gamification for triggering such behavioural changes can be observed. However, little is known about the actual impact of using game elements. This contribution describes a concept for systematically analysing the group-specific effects of different game mechanics on mobility decision processes (e.g. mode and route choice. Based on theoretical findings concerning player types and mobility styles we developed a framework for identifying effective game mechanics motivating users to explore mobility alternatives and take more informed and more sustainable mode or route choice decisions. The results will form the basis for implementing game mechanics in mobility information services motivating users to explore unfamiliar but more sustainable mobility options.

  5. A note on identification in discrete choice models with partial observability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Ranjan, Abhishek

    2017-01-01

    This note establishes a new identification result for additive random utility discrete choice models. A decision-maker associates a random utility Uj+ mj to each alternative in a finite set j∈ {1 , … , J} , where U= {U1, … , UJ} is unobserved by the researcher and random with an unknown joint dis...... for applications where choices are observed aggregated into groups while prices and attributes vary at the level of individual alternatives....

  6. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  7. Loss Aversion and Inhibition in Dynamical Models of Multialternative Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

    2004-01-01

    The roles of loss aversion and inhibition among alternatives are examined in models of the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects that arise in choices among 3 alternatives differing on 2 attributes. R. M. Roe, J. R. Busemeyer, and J. T. Townsend (2001) have proposed a linear model in which effects previously attributed to loss aversion…

  8. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  9. Do Dual-Route Models Accurately Predict Reading and Spelling Performance in Individuals with Acquired Alexia and Agraphia?

    OpenAIRE

    Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Henry, Maya L.; Teague, Sommer L.; Carnahan, Susan D.; Beeson, Pélagie M.

    2007-01-01

    Coltheart and colleagues (Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001; Castles, Bates, & Coltheart, 2006) have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult...

  10. A Model of Boundedly Rational Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Riechmann

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents an extended version of the standard textbook problem of consumer choice. As usual, agents have to decide about their desired quatities of various consumption goods, at the same time taking into account their limited budget. Prices for the goods are not fixed but arise from a Walrasian interaction of total demand and a stilized supply function for each of the goods. After showing that this type of model cannot be solved analytically, three different types of evolutionary alg...

  11. ON PROBABILITY FUNCTION OF TRIP ROUTE CHOICE IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM OF CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Nefedof

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The results of statistical processing of experimental research data in Kharkiv, aimed at determining the relation between the passenger trip choice probability and the actual vehicles waiting time at bus terminals are presented.

  12. Towards models of strategic spatial choice behaviour: theory and application issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, Q.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2005-01-01

    Models of spatial choice behaviour have been around in urban planning for decades to assess the feasibility of planning actions or to predict external (competition) effects on existing destinations. The well known spatial interaction models of the 1970s have gradually been replaced by discrete

  13. The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Walker, Joan L.

    2017-01-01

    of them consider the effect of intention and its role as mediator between those psychological effects and the choice, as implied in the Theory of Planned Behavior. In this paper we contribute to the literature in this field by specifically studying the direct effect of the intention on the actual behavior......, while attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the intention to behave in a given way. We apply a hybrid choice model to study the departure time choice. For this, we use data from Danish commuters in the morning rush hours in the Greater Copenhagen area. We find a significant...

  14. How the health belief model helps the tobacco industry: individuals, choice, and "information".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbach, Edith D; Smith, Elizabeth A; Malone, Ruth E

    2006-12-01

    To analyse trial and deposition testimony of tobacco industry executives to determine how they use the concepts of "information" and "choice" and consider how these concepts are related to theoretical models of health behaviour change. We coded and analysed transcripts of trial and deposition testimony of 14 high-level executives representing six companies plus the Tobacco Institute. We conducted an interpretive analysis of industry executives' characterisation of the industry's role as information provider and the agency of tobacco consumers in making "choices". Tobacco industry executives deployed the concept of "information" as a mechanism that shifted to consumers full moral responsibility for the harms caused by tobacco products. The industry's role was characterised as that of impartial supplier of value-free "information", without regard to its quality, accuracy and truthfulness. Tobacco industry legal defences rely on assumptions congruent with and supported by individual rational choice theories, particularly those that emphasise individual, autonomous decision-makers. Tobacco control advocates and health educators must challenge the industry's preferred framing, pointing out that "information" is not value-free. Multi-level, multi-sectoral interventions are critical to tobacco use prevention. Over-reliance on individual and interpersonal rational choice models may have the effect of validating the industry's model of smoking and cessation behaviour, absolving it of responsibility and rendering invisible the "choices" the industry has made and continues to make in promoting the most deadly consumer product ever made.

  15. A Joint Modeling Analysis of Passengers’ Intercity Travel Destination and Mode Choices in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Joint destination-mode travel choice models are developed for intercity long-distance travel among sixteen cities in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China. The model is developed for all the trips in the sample and also by two different trip purposes, work-related business and personal business trips, to accommodate different time values and attraction factors. A nested logit modeling framework is applied to model trip destination and mode choices in two different levels, where the lower level is a mode choice model and the upper level is a destination choice model. The utility values from various travel modes in the lower level are summarized into a composite utility, which is then specified into the destination choice model as an intercity impedance factor. The model is then applied to predict the change in passenger number from Shanghai to Yangzhou between scenarios with and without high-speed rail service to demonstrate the applicability. It is helpful for understanding and modeling megaregional travel destination and mode choice behaviors in the context of developing country.

  16. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  17. Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Bojia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Flow corridors are a new class of trajectory-based airspace which derives from the next generation air transportation system concept of operations. Reducing the airspace complexity and increasing the capacity are the main purposes of the en-route corridor. This paper analyzes the collision risk-capacity tradeoff using a combined discrete–continuous simulation method. A basic two-dimensional en-route flow corridor with performance rules is designed as the operational environment. A second-order system is established by combining the point mass model and the proportional derivative controller together to simulate the self-separation operations of the aircrafts in the corridor and the operation performance parameters from the User Manual for the Base of Aircraft Data are used in this research in order to improve the reliability. Simulation results indicate that the aircrafts can self-separate from each other efficiently by adjusting their velocities, and rationally setting the values of some variables can improve the rate and stability of the corridor with low risks of loss of separation.

  18. Рassenger survey on public transport in Zhitomir and evaluation of the main technical and operational parameters for the choice of city buses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzynskyi V.V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The parameters of the passenger movements in the direction of public transport in Zhitomir are defined and conformity assessment of technical and operational parameters of urban shuttle buses is folded. Firstly, the amount of passenger traffic affects the optimal choice of passenger vehicles and secondly, the intensity of road traffic on the streets of areas where passengers pass routes. It should also be kept in mind that passenger traffic can fluctuate significantly depending on the time of day and days of the week. But virtually all carriers can be replaced within days with rolling at a large passenger capacity, and vice versa. Therefore, the choice of one type of rolling stock, the capacity of which is set taking into account the data on hourly passenger capacity on the most loaded part of the route up to an hour "peak", or its capacity per day on the route as a whole. Thus the research work on inspection of passenger-route passenger transport, and public electric transport in Zhitomir is conducted. Primary data was estimated to select the main criteria for urban passenger bus. It was found that the buses in the "peak" hours move on passenger congestion. Preliminary conclusions and recommendations on the criteria of optimal rolling of choice for the city bus route network are provided.

  19. Measuring Strategic Firm Interaction in Product-Quality Choices: The Case of Airline Flight Frequency

    OpenAIRE

    Jan K. Brueckner; Dan Luo

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates strategic interaction among airlines in product-quality choices. Using an instrumental variables approach, the paper estimates flight-frequency reaction functions, which relate an airline’s frequency on a route to its own characteristics and to the frequencies of competing airlines. A positive reaction function slope is found in some cases, indicating the presence of strategic interaction in the choice of frequencies. The paper also asks whether multimarket contact g...

  20. Effect of social influence on consumer choice behavior using a sequential stated choice experiment: A study of city trip itinerary choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pan, X.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a model that captures the effect of social influence on individual choice behavior. The suggested model shares with previous models the idea to add a term to the deterministic utility function of the choice alternative, chosen by a social network member, to measure an

  1. An integrated location inventory routing model in supply chain network designing under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojat Angazi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study an integrated model is proposed for the location inventory routing problem under uncertainty. This problem involves determining the location of distribution centers (DCs in a three echelon supply chain. The DCs receive orders from the customer and according to a continuous review inventory replenishment policy place orders to the supplier. The products are directly shipped from the supplier to the DCs. The vehicles start from the DCs to fulfill the demands of the customers. Determining the routing of the vehicles is one of the decisions involved in this problem. The demands of customers are stochastically distributed and the capacity of DCs are limited. If one of the DCs undergo a disruption and is unable to fulfill the demands of the customers, shortage may occur. Moreover in the proposed model the shortage is considered as partial backlogging. This means that if shortage occurs, some of the orders result in lost sales and other orders are fulfilled in the next period. In order to optimally solve the proposed model a nonlinear integer programming (INLP model is developed. However, since the problem is NP-hard, the mathematical formulation cannot be efficiently solved for large sized instances of the problem. Therefore an outer approximation method is developed to solve the problem more efficiently. The computational results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

  2. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

  3. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

  4. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  5. Numerical Modeling of Fiber-Reinforced Metal Matrix Composite Processing by the Liquid Route: Literature Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacoste, Eric; Arvieu, Corinne; Mantaux, Olivier

    2018-04-01

    One of the technologies used to produce metal matrix composites (MMCs) is liquid route processing. One solution is to inject a liquid metal under pressure or at constant rate through a fibrous preform. This foundry technique overcomes the problem of the wettability of ceramic fibers by liquid metal. The liquid route can also be used to produce semiproducts by coating a filament with a molten metal. These processes involve physical phenomena combined with mass and heat transfer and phase change. The phase change phenomena related to solidification and also to the melting of the metal during the process notably result in modifications to the permeability of porous media, in gaps in impregnation, in the appearance of defects (porosities), and in segregation in the final product. In this article, we provide a state-of-the-art review of numerical models and simulation developed to study these physical phenomena involved in MMC processing by the liquid route.

  6. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  7. Exploring alternatives to rational choice in models of Behaviour:An investigation using travel mode choice

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Gregory Owen

    2014-01-01

    The car is the most popular travel mode in the UK, but reliance on the car has numerous negative effects on health, the economy, and the environment. Encouraging sustainable travel mode choices (modal choice) can minimise these problems. To promote behaviour change, psychologists have an interest in understanding modal choice. Historically, modal choice has been understood as a reasoned and rational decision that requires a conscious assessment of thoughts and attitudes: but evidence suggests...

  8. Remotely Sensed Based Lake/Reservoir Routing in Congo River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Lee, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lake and reservoir dynamics can influence local to regional water cycles but are often not well represented in hydrologic models. One challenge that limits their inclusion in models is the need for detailed storage-discharge behavior that can be further complicated in reservoirs where specific operation rules are employed. Here, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is combined with a remotely sensed based Reservoir Routing (RR) method and applied to the Congo River Basin. Given that topographic data are often continuous over the entire terrestrial surface (i.e., does not differentiate between land and open water), the HRR-RR model integrates topographic derived river networks and catchment boundaries (e.g., HydroSHEDs) with water boundary extents (e.g., Global Lakes and Wetlands Database) to develop the computational framework. The catchments bordering lakes and reservoirs are partitioned into water and land portions, where representative flowpath characteristics are determined and vertical water balance and lateral routings is performed separately on each partition based on applicable process models (e.g., open water evaporation vs. evapotranspiration). To enable reservoir routing, remotely sensed water surface elevations and extents are combined to determine the storage change time series. Based on the available time series, representative storage change patterns are determined. Lake/reservoir routing is performed by combining inflows from the HRR-RR model and the representative storage change patterns to determine outflows. In this study, a suite of storage change patterns derived from remotely sensed measurements are determined representative patterns for wet, dry and average conditions. The HRR-RR model dynamically selects and uses the optimal storage change pattern for the routing process based on these hydrologic conditions. The HRR-RR model results are presented to highlight the importance of lake attenuation/routing in the Congo Basin.

  9. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  10. Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

  11. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Methodology for Opportunistic Routing in Wireless Multihop Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Dongyang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling the forwarding feature and analyzing the performance theoretically for opportunistic routing in wireless multihop network are of great challenge. To address this issue, a generalized geometric distribution (GGD is firstly proposed. Based on the GGD, the forwarding probability between any two forwarding candidates could be calculated and it can be proved that the successful delivery rate after several transmissions of forwarding candidates is irrelevant to the priority rule. Then, a discrete-time queuing model is proposed to analyze mean end-to-end delay (MED of a regular opportunistic routing with the knowledge of the forwarding probability. By deriving the steady-state joint generating function of the queue length distribution, MED for directly connected networks and some special cases of nondirectly connected networks could be ultimately determined. Besides, an approximation approach is proposed to assess MED for the general cases in the nondirectly connected networks. By comparing with a large number of simulation results, the rationality of the analysis is validated. Both the analysis and simulation results show that MED varies with the number of forwarding candidates, especially when it comes to connected networks; MED increases more rapidly than that in nondirectly connected networks with the increase of the number of forwarding candidates.

  12. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  13. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  14. Research on Innovating, Applying Multiple Paths Routing Technique Based on Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithm for Routing Messages in Service - Oriented Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Thanh Long

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available MANET (short for Mobile Ad-Hoc Network consists of a set of mobile network nodes, network configuration changes very fast. In content based routing, data is transferred from source node to request nodes is not based on destination addresses. Therefore, it is very flexible and reliable, because source node does not need to know destination nodes. If We can find multiple paths that satisfies bandwidth requirement, split the original message into multiple smaller messages to transmit concurrently on these paths. On destination nodes, combine separated messages into the original message. Hence it can utilize better network resources, causes data transfer rate to be higher, load balancing, failover. Service Oriented Routing is inherited from the model of content based routing (CBR, combined with several advanced techniques such as Multicast, multiple path routing, Genetic algorithm to increase the data rate, and data encryption to ensure information security. Fuzzy logic is a logical field study evaluating the accuracy of the results based on the approximation of the components involved, make decisions based on many factors relative accuracy based on experimental or mathematical proof. This article presents some techniques to support multiple path routing from one network node to a set of nodes with guaranteed quality of service. By using these techniques can decrease the network load, congestion, use network resources efficiently.

  15. Routing Service Quality—Local Driver Behavior Versus Routing Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ceikute, Vaida; Jensen, Christian S.

    2013-01-01

    of the quality of one kind of location-based service, namely routing services. Specifically, the paper presents a framework that enables the comparison of the routes provided by routing services with the actual driving behaviors of local drivers. Comparisons include route length, travel time, and also route...... popularity, which are enabled by common driving behaviors found in available trajectory data. The ability to evaluate the quality of routing services enables service providers to improve the quality of their services and enables users to identify the services that best serve their needs. The paper covers......Mobile location-based services is a very successful class of services that are being used frequently by users with GPS-enabled mobile devices such as smartphones. This paper presents a study of how to exploit GPS trajectory data, which is available in increasing volumes, for the assessment...

  16. A joint routing and speed optimization problem

    OpenAIRE

    Fukasawa, Ricardo; He, Qie; Santos, Fernando; Song, Yongjia

    2016-01-01

    Fuel cost contributes to a significant portion of operating cost in cargo transportation. Though classic routing models usually treat fuel cost as input data, fuel consumption heavily depends on the travel speed, which has led to the study of optimizing speeds over a given fixed route. In this paper, we propose a joint routing and speed optimization problem to minimize the total cost, which includes the fuel consumption cost. The only assumption made on the dependence between the fuel cost an...

  17. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling–Smithies model of product choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahaman, Ramij; Majumdar, Priyadarshi; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using a continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for each location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium. (paper)

  18. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  19. Digital model of underground tourist route “St. John’s Mine” in Krobica

    OpenAIRE

    Hanna Moczydłowska; Paweł P. Zagożdżon

    2013-01-01

    A general characteristics of “St. John’s Mine” tourist route (“Kopalnia Św. Jana”, Krobica, Lower Silesia) has been shown, containing the history of mining workings, geology and stages of it’s investigation, protection and adaptation for a tourist traffic. The steps of construction of it’s spatial model, in Datamine Studio 3 software, are presented. The resulting model has been proposed as a complementary element of “Mine St. John’s Mine” tourist offer. It can be used as part of the introduct...

  20. Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Satoru; Furuta, Kazuo; Nakata, Keiichi; Kanno, Taro; Aoyama, Hisae; Brown, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes. This research focuses on an experimental study to gain a better understanding of controllers' cognitive processes in air traffic control. We conducted ethnographic observations and then analysed the data to develop a model of controllers' cognitive process. This analysis revealed that strategic routines are applicable to decision making.

  1. Can We Model Driver Perceptions? An In-Situ Experiment in Real-World Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly M. Tawfik, PhD

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that perceptions play a significant role in traveler decisions. Consequently, traveler perceptions are a corner stone in the feasibility of traveler information systems; for traveler information systems are only valuable if the drivers are incapable of accurately acquiring the provided information on their own, and if the provided information is relevant for the drivers' decision criteria. Accuracy of traveler perceptions has been repeatedly researched in public transportation, and has been found to vary according to different reasons. However, in spite of the clear significance of traveler perceptions, minimal effort has been put into modeling it. Almost all travel behavior models are based on traveler experiences, which are assumed to reflect traveler perceptions via the addition of some random error component. This works introduces an alternative approach: instead of adding an error component to represent driver perceptions, it proposes to model driver perceptions. This work is based on a real-world route choice experiment of a sample of 20 drivers who made more than 2,000 real-world route choices. Each of the drivers' experiences, perceptions, and choices were recorded, analyzed and cross examined. The paper demonstrates that: i driver experiences are different from driver perceptions, ii driver perceptions explain driver choices better than driver experiences, iii it is possible to model and predict driver perceptions of travel distance, time and speed.

  2. 2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azad Wan Hazdy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

  3. The choice of a biological model in assessing internal dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parodo, A.; Erre, N.

    1977-01-01

    Many are the biological models related to kinetic behavior of radioactive materials within the organism, or in an organ. This is true particularly for the metabolic kinetics of bone-seekers radionuclides described differently by various authors: as a consequence, different forms of the retention function have been used in calculating internal dose equivalent. In our opinion, the retention functions expressed as linear combinations of exponential terms with negative exponents are preferable. In fact, they can be obtained by coherent compartmental analysis and allow a mathematical formalism fairly well definite and easily adaptable to computers. Moreover, it is possible to make use of graphs and monograms already published. The role of the biological model in internal dosimetry, referred to the reliability of the quantitative informations on the kinetic behavior of the radionuclides in the organism and, therefrom, to the accuracy of the doses calculated, is discussed. By comparing the results obtained with different biological models, one finds that the choice of a model is less important than the choice of the value of the appropriate parameters

  4. An Iterative Algorithm to Determine the Dynamic User Equilibrium in a Traffic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawron, C.

    An iterative algorithm to determine the dynamic user equilibrium with respect to link costs defined by a traffic simulation model is presented. Each driver's route choice is modeled by a discrete probability distribution which is used to select a route in the simulation. After each simulation run, the probability distribution is adapted to minimize the travel costs. Although the algorithm does not depend on the simulation model, a queuing model is used for performance reasons. The stability of the algorithm is analyzed for a simple example network. As an application example, a dynamic version of Braess's paradox is studied.

  5. Multi-criteria, personalized route planning using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadi, S.; Delavar, M. R.

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents a generic model for using different decision strategies in multi-criteria, personalized route planning. Some researchers have considered user preferences in navigation systems. However, these prior studies typically employed a high tradeoff decision strategy, which used a weighted linear aggregation rule, and neglected other decision strategies. The proposed model integrates a pairwise comparison method and quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operators to form a personalized route planning method that incorporates different decision strategies. The model can be used to calculate the impedance of each link regarding user preferences in terms of the route criteria, criteria importance and the selected decision strategy. Regarding the decision strategy, the calculated impedance lies between aggregations that use a logical "and" (which requires all the criteria to be satisfied) and a logical "or" (which requires at least one criterion to be satisfied). The calculated impedance also includes taking the average of the criteria scores. The model results in multiple alternative routes, which apply different decision strategies and provide users with the flexibility to select one of them en-route based on the real world situation. The model also defines the robust personalized route under different decision strategies. The influence of different decision strategies on the results are investigated in an illustrative example. This model is implemented in a web-based geographical information system (GIS) for Isfahan in Iran and verified in a tourist routing scenario. The results demonstrated, in real world situations, the validity of the route planning carried out in the model.

  6. A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling u...

  7. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  8. Emerging Australian Education Markets: A Discrete Choice Model of Taiwanese and Indonesian Student Intended Study Destination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Steven; Madden, Gary; Simpson, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Isolates factors influencing choice of Australia as a preferred destination for international students in emerging regional markets. Uses data obtained from a survey of students in Indonesia and Taiwan to estimate a U.S./Australia and rest-of-world/Australia discrete destination-choice model. This model identifies key factors determining country…

  9. Improving catchment discharge predictions by inferring flow route contributions from a nested-scale monitoring and model setup

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.; van Geer, F. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; de Louw, P. G. B.

    2011-03-01

    Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for the estimation of flow route volumes and for predictions of catchment discharge. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD) curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2) and simple process descriptions were applied to relate groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from the hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2). The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates) decreased with increasing scale from 76-79% at the field-site to 34-61% and 25-50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements improves simulations of nitrate loads and predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

  10. Writ in water, lines in sand: Ancient trade routes, models and comparative evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eivind Heldaas Seland

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Historians and archaeologists often take connectivity for granted, and fail to address the problems of documenting patterns of movement. This article highlights the methodological challenges of reconstructing trade routes in prehistory and early history. The argument is made that these challenges are best met through the application of modern models of connectivity, in combination with the conscious use of comparative approaches.

  11. Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2016-12-30

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  12. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  13. Routing architecture and security for airborne networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hongmei; Xie, Peng; Li, Jason; Xu, Roger; Levy, Renato

    2009-05-01

    Airborne networks are envisioned to provide interconnectivity for terrestial and space networks by interconnecting highly mobile airborne platforms. A number of military applications are expected to be used by the operator, and all these applications require proper routing security support to establish correct route between communicating platforms in a timely manner. As airborne networks somewhat different from traditional wired and wireless networks (e.g., Internet, LAN, WLAN, MANET, etc), security aspects valid in these networks are not fully applicable to airborne networks. Designing an efficient security scheme to protect airborne networks is confronted with new requirements. In this paper, we first identify a candidate routing architecture, which works as an underlying structure for our proposed security scheme. And then we investigate the vulnerabilities and attack models against routing protocols in airborne networks. Based on these studies, we propose an integrated security solution to address routing security issues in airborne networks.

  14. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  15. Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Xu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

  16. Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations

  17. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, K S; Srinivasan, T N

    1980-09-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for all matter-energy processing subsystems at the level of the society, specifically India. It explores India's choices in the food and energy sectors over the coming decades. Alternative land intensive, irrigation energy intensive, and fertilizer intensive techniques of food production are identified using a nonlinear programming model. The land saved is devoted to growing firewood. The optimum combination of railway (steam, diesel, and electric traction) and road (automobiles, diesel trucks, and diesel and gasoline buses) transport is determined. For the oil sector, two alternative sources of supply of crude oil and petroleum products are included, namely, domestic production and imports. The optimum choice is determined through a linear programming model. While the model is basically a static one, designed to determine the optimal choice for the target year of 2000-2001, certain intertemporal detail is incorporated for electricity generation. The model minimizes the costs of meeting the needs for food, transport in terms of passenger kilometers and goods per ton per kilometer, energy needs for domestic cooking and lighting, and the energy needs of the rest of the economy.

  18. The axiom of choice

    CERN Document Server

    Jech, Thomas J

    2008-01-01

    Comprehensive in its selection of topics and results, this self-contained text examines the relative strengths and consequences of the axiom of choice. Each chapter contains several problems, graded according to difficulty, and concludes with some historical remarks.An introduction to the use of the axiom of choice is followed by explorations of consistency, permutation models, and independence. Subsequent chapters examine embedding theorems, models with finite supports, weaker versions of the axiom, and nontransferable statements. The final sections consider mathematics without choice, cardin

  19. Reliable Rescue Routing Optimization for Urban Emergency Logistics under Travel Time Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuping Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of rescue routes is critical for urban emergency logistics during disasters. However, studies on reliable rescue routing under stochastic networks are still rare. This paper proposes a multiobjective rescue routing model for urban emergency logistics under travel time reliability. A hybrid metaheuristic integrating ant colony optimization (ACO and tabu search (TS was designed to solve the model. An experiment optimizing rescue routing plans under a real urban storm event, was carried out to validate the proposed model. The experimental results showed how our approach can improve rescue efficiency with high travel time reliability.

  20. Judgments in the selection of path generation techniques: a meta-analytic approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    objective judgments for effective route choice set generation. Initially, path generation techniques are implemented within a synthetic network to generate possible subjective choice sets considered by travelers. Next, “true model estimates” and “postulated predicted routes” are assumed from the simulation...... of a route choice model. Then, objective choice sets are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the “true model estimates”. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the “postulated predicted routes”. Meta-analysis allows...

  1. Context Analysis of Customer Requests using a Hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System and Hidden Markov Models in the Natural Language Call Routing Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustamov, Samir; Mustafayev, Elshan; Clements, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM) can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.

  2. Context Analysis of Customer Requests using a Hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System and Hidden Markov Models in the Natural Language Call Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rustamov Samir

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The context analysis of customer requests in a natural language call routing problem is investigated in the paper. One of the most significant problems in natural language call routing is a comprehension of client request. With the aim of finding a solution to this issue, the Hybrid HMM and ANFIS models become a subject to an examination. Combining different types of models (ANFIS and HMM can prevent misunderstanding by the system for identification of user intention in dialogue system. Based on these models, the hybrid system may be employed in various language and call routing domains due to nonusage of lexical or syntactic analysis in classification process.

  3. Transportation of radioactive materials routing analysis: The Nevada experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardila-Coulson, M.V.

    1991-01-01

    In 1987, the Nevada State Legislature passed a Bill requiring the Nevada Dept. of Transportation to develop and enforce a plan for highway routing of highway route controlled quantity shipments of radioactive materials and high-level radioactive waste. A large network with all the major highways in Nevada was created and used in a computer model developed by Sandia National Labs. Twenty-eight highway parameters that included geometrics, traffic characteristics, environment and special facilities were collected. Alternative routes were identified by minimizing primary parameters (population density and accident rates). An analysis using the US DOT Guidelines were performed to identify a preferred route from the alternative routes

  4. State alternative route designations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-07-01

    Pursuant to the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act (HMTA), the Department of Transportation (DOT) has promulgated a comprehensive set of regulations regarding the highway transportation of high-level radioactive materials. These regulations, under HM-164 and HM-164A, establish interstate highways as the preferred routes for the transportation of radioactive materials within and through the states. The regulations also provide a methodology by which a state may select alternative routes. First,the state must establish a ''state routing agency,'' defined as an entity authorized to use the state legal process to impose routing requirements on carriers of radioactive material (49 CFR 171.8). Once identified, the state routing agency must select routes in accordance with Large Quantity Shipments of Radioactive Materials or an equivalent routing analysis. Adjoining states and localities should be consulted on the impact of proposed alternative routes as a prerequisite of final route selection. Lastly, the states must provide written notice of DOT of any alternative route designation before the routes are deemed effective

  5. Evaluation of the Safe Routes to Transit Program in CaliforniaÂ

    OpenAIRE

    Weinzimmer, David; Sanders, Rebecca L.; Dittrich, Heidi; Cooper, Jill F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper elaborates on findings from an evaluation of the San Francisco Bay Area’s Safe Routes to Transit (SR2T) program, which funded enhancements to increase walking and cycling to regional transit stations. To understand how the program influenced travel choices, behavior, and perceptions of safety and local air quality, researchers surveyed transit users and observed driver, pedestrian, and bicyclist behavior in the periods before and after the enhancements were made at multiple trans...

  6. Exploring bikeability in a metropolitan setting: stimulating and hindering factors in commuting route environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahlgren Lina

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Route environments may influence people's active commuting positively and thereby contribute to public health. Assessments of route environments are, however, needed in order to better understand the possible relationship between active commuting and the route environment. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess the potential associations between perceptions of whether the route environment on the whole hinders or stimulates bicycle commuting and perceptions of environmental factors. Methods The Active Commuting Route Environment Scale (ACRES was used for the assessment of bicycle commuters' perceptions of their route environments in the inner urban parts of Greater Stockholm, Sweden. Bicycle commuters (n = 827 were recruited by advertisements in newspapers. Simultaneous multiple regression analyses were used to assess the relation between predictor variables (such as levels of exhaust fumes, noise, traffic speed, traffic congestion and greenery and the outcome variable (hindering - stimulating route environments. Two models were run, (Model 1 without and (Model 2 with the item traffic: unsafe or safe included as a predictor. Results Overall, about 40% of the variance of hindering - stimulating route environments was explained by the environmental predictors in our models (Model 1, R2 = 0.415, and Model 2, R 2= 0.435. The regression equation for Model 1 was: y = 8.53 + 0.33 ugly or beautiful + 0.14 greenery + (-0.14 course of the route + (-0.13 exhaust fumes + (-0.09 congestion: all types of vehicles (p ≤ 0.019. The regression equation for Model 2 was y = 6.55 + 0.31 ugly or beautiful + 0.16 traffic: unsafe or safe + (-0.13 exhaust fumes + 0.12 greenery + (-0.12 course of the route (p ≤ 0.001. Conclusions The main results indicate that beautiful, green and safe route environments seem to be, independently of each other, stimulating factors for bicycle commuting in inner urban areas. On the other hand, exhaust

  7. A Bayesian Network Model on the Public Bicycle Choice Behavior of Residents: A Case Study of Xi’an

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuping Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the main factors affecting the behaviors that city residents make regarding public bicycle choice and to further study the public bicycle user’s personal characteristics and travel characteristics, a travel mode choice model based on a Bayesian network was established. Taking residents of Xi’an as the research object, a K2 algorithm combined with mutual information and expert knowledge was proposed for Bayesian network structure learning. The Bayesian estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the network, and a Bayesian network model was established to reflect the interactions among the public bicycle choice behaviors along with other major factors. The K-fold cross-validation method was used to validate the model performance, and the hit rate of each travel mode was more than 80%, indicating the precision of the proposed model. Experimental results also present the higher classification accuracy of the proposed model. Therefore, it may be concluded that the resident travel mode choice may be accurately predicted according to the Bayesian network model proposed in our study. Additionally, this model may be employed to analyze and discuss changes in the resident public bicycle choice and to note that they may possibly be influenced by different travelers’ characteristics and trip characteristics.

  8. Improving catchment discharge predictions by inferring flow route contributions from a nested-scale monitoring and model setup

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. van der Velde

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for the estimation of flow route volumes and for predictions of catchment discharge. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2 and simple process descriptions were applied to relate groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from the hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2. The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates decreased with increasing scale from 76–79% at the field-site to 34–61% and 25–50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements improves simulations of nitrate loads and predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

  9. Comparison of actual and predicted routes used in the shipment of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.; Harrison, I.G.

    1985-01-01

    A number of highway controlled shipments of radioactive materials have been made over the past several years. An excellent example showing the variability of actual routes is the transfer of 45 shipments between the Three Mile Island reactor in Pennsylvania and Scoville, Idaho in 1982 and 1983. Six different routes varying between 2273 and 2483 miles were used. Approximately 75% of these shipments followed a common route which passed through ten Urbanized Areas, defined by the Census Bureau as having a population exceeding 100,000 people. Other routes, while shorter in distance, passed through as many as 14 Urbanized Areas. Routes predicted by the Oak Ridge routing model did not exactly duplicate actual routes used. However, the analysis shows that the routing model does make a good estimate of transportation routes actually chosen by shippers of radioactive materials. In actual practice, a number of factors (weather, road conditions, driver preference, etc.) influence the actual route taken. 5 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  10. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  11. COORDINATION OF THE WORK OF BUSES IN CITY ROUTES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuad DASHDAMIROV

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper studied the work of bus routes passing through a street. Optimality criterion was chosen for the development of appropriate models of effective work of buses on the land. The paper proposes a new model costing time passengers at bus stops. A method of technique was developed to coordinate the buses running on the combined section of route.

  12. Optimum Route Planning and Scheduling for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sonmezocak, Erkan; Kurt, Senol

    2008-01-01

    .... The route planning of UAVs is the most critical and challenging problem of wartime. This thesis will develop three algorithms to solve a model that produces executable routings in order to dispatch three Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV...

  13. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Filko (Martin)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage

  14. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  15. A green vehicle routing problem with customer satisfaction criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshar-Bakeshloo, M.; Mehrabi, A.; Safari, H.; Maleki, M.; Jolai, F.

    2016-12-01

    This paper develops an MILP model, named Satisfactory-Green Vehicle Routing Problem. It consists of routing a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles in order to serve a set of customers within predefined time windows. In this model in addition to the traditional objective of the VRP, both the pollution and customers' satisfaction have been taken into account. Meanwhile, the introduced model prepares an effective dashboard for decision-makers that determines appropriate routes, the best mixed fleet, speed and idle time of vehicles. Additionally, some new factors evaluate the greening of each decision based on three criteria. This model applies piecewise linear functions (PLFs) to linearize a nonlinear fuzzy interval for incorporating customers' satisfaction into other linear objectives. We have presented a mixed integer linear programming formulation for the S-GVRP. This model enriches managerial insights by providing trade-offs between customers' satisfaction, total costs and emission levels. Finally, we have provided a numerical study for showing the applicability of the model.

  16. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARSUK R. V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

  17. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  18. The importance of regret minimization in the choice for renewable energy programmes: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, Marco; Longo, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a methodologically rigorous attempt to disentangle the impact of various factors – unobserved heterogeneity, information and environmental attitudes – on the inclination of individuals to exhibit either a utility maximization or a regret minimization behaviour in a discrete choice experiment for renewable energy programmes described by four attributes: greenhouse gas emissions, power outages, employment in the energy sector, and electricity bill. We explore the ability of different models – multinomial logit, random parameters logit, and hybrid latent class – and of different choice paradigms – utility maximization and regret minimization – in explaining people's choices for renewable energy programmes. The “pure” random regret random parameters logit model explains the choices of our respondents better than other models, indicating that regret is an important choice paradigm, and that choices for renewable energy programmes are mostly driven by regret, rather than by rejoice. In particular, we find that our respondents' choices are driven more by changes in greenhouse gas emissions than by reductions in power outages. Finally, we find that changing the level of information to one attribute has no effect on choices, and that being a member of an environmental organization makes a respondent more likely to be associated with the utility maximization choice framework. - Highlights: • The first paper to use the Random Regret Minimization choice paradigm in energy economics • With a hybrid latent class model, choices conform to either utility or pure random regret. • The pure random regret random parameters logit model outperforms other models. • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more important than reducing power outages.

  19. Optimal Re-Routes and Ground Delays Using a Route-Based Aggregate Air Traffic Flow Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler, Lluis

    The National Airspace System (NAS) is very complex and with a high level of uncertainty. For this reason, developing an automated conflict resolution tool at NAS level is presented as a big challenge. One way to address the problem is by using aggregate models, which can significantly reduce its dimension and complexity. Significant effort has been made to develop an air traffic aggregate model capable to effectively state and solve the problem. In this study, a Route-Based Aggregate Model is developed and tested. It consists in a modification of several existing models and overcomes some issues identified in previous aggregate models. It allows the implementation of Traffic Flow Management conventional controls, such as ground delay and rerouting. These control strategies can be used to avoid congestion conflicts based on sectors and airports capacity as well as regions affected by convective weather. The optimization problem is posed as a Linear Programming routine, which guarantees an optimal solution that minimizes the total accumulated delay required to avoid such capacity conflicts. The solutions can be directly translated into specific instructions at aircraft level, via modification of the times of departure and flight plans. The model is integrated with Future Air Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET), a state of the art air traffic simulation tool, and uses its files as both input and output. This allows simulating in FACET the solution obtained from the aggregate domain. The approach is validated by applying it in three realistic scenarios at different scales. Results show that, for time horizons larger than 2 hours, the accuracy of the aggregate model is similar to other simulation tools. Also, the modified flight plans, the product of the disaggregated solution, reduce the number of capacity conflicts in the FACET simulation. Future research will study the robustness of these solutions and determine the most appropriate scenarios where to

  20. Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System (TRAGIS) User's Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, PE

    2003-09-18

    The Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System (TRAGIS) model is used to calculate highway, rail, or waterway routes within the United States. TRAGIS is a client-server application with the user interface and map data files residing on the user's personal computer and the routing engine and network data files on a network server. The user's manual provides documentation on installation and the use of the many features of the model.

  1. An Airlift Hub-and-Spoke Location-Routing Model with Time Windows: Case Study of the CONUS-to-Korea Airlift Problem

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cox, David

    1998-01-01

    .... This study develops an alternative hub-and-spoke combined location-routing integer linear programming prototype model, and uses this model to determine what advantages a hub-and-spoke system offers...

  2. On the Capacity of Hybrid Wireless Networks with Opportunistic Routing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Tan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the capacity of hybrid wireless networks with opportunistic routing (OR. We first extend the opportunistic routing algorithm to exploit high-speed data transmissions in infrastructure network through base stations. We then develop linear programming models to calculate the end-to-end throughput bounds from multiple source nodes to single as well as multiple destination nodes. The developed models are applied to study several hybrid wireless network examples. Through case studies, we investigate several factors that have significant impacts on the hybrid wireless network capacity under opportunistic routing, such as node transmission range, density and distribution pattern of base stations (BTs, and number of wireless channels on wireless nodes and base stations. Our numerical results demonstrate that opportunistic routing could achieve much higher throughput on both ad hoc and hybrid networks than traditional unicast routing (UR. Moreover, opportunistic routing can efficiently utilize base stations and achieve significantly higher throughput gains in hybrid wireless networks than in pure ad hoc networks especially with multiple-channel base stations.

  3. Principles of Vessel Route Planning in Ice on the Northern Sea Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Pastusiak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A complex of ice cover characteristics and the season of the year were considered in relation to vessel route planning in ice-covered areas on the NSR. The criteria for navigation in ice - both year-round and seasonal were analyzed. The analysis of the experts knowledge, dissipated in the literature, allowed to identify some rules of route planning in ice-covered areas. The most important processes from the navigation point of view are the development and disintegration of ice, the formation and disintegration of fast ice and behavior of the ice massifs and polynyas. The optimal route is selected on basis of available analysis and forecast maps of ice conditions and ice class, draught and seaworthiness of the vessel. The boundary of the ice indicates areas accessible to vessels without ice class. Areas with a concentration of ice from 0 to 6/10 are used for navigation of vessels of different ice classes. Areas of concentration of ice from 7/10 up are eligible for navigation for icebreakers and vessels with a high ice class with the assistance of icebreakers. These rules were collected in the decision tree. Following such developed decision-making model the master of the vessel may take decision independently by accepting grading criteria of priorities resulting from his knowledge, experience and the circumstances of navigation. Formalized form of decision making model reduces risk of the "human factor" in the decision and thereby help improve the safety of maritime transport.

  4. Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Hok K.; Morando, Alex; Grabbe, Shon

    2010-01-01

    Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

  5. Pseudo-Cycle-Based Multicast Routing in Wormhole-Routed Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG JianPing (宋建平); HOU ZiFeng (侯紫峰); XU Ming (许铭)

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of fault-tolerant multicast routing in wormholerouted multicomputers. A new pseudo-cycle-based routing method is presented for constructing deadlock-free multicast routing algorithms. With at most two virtual channels this technique can be applied to any connected networks with arbitrary topologies. Simulation results show that this technique results in negligible performance degradation even in the presence of a large number of faulty nodes.

  6. Radionuclide therapy: regional and systemic routes of administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, B.

    1991-01-01

    The optimal sequencing and integration of radiopharmaceutical therapy with respect to the multiple and competing therapeutic modalities is examined. It is estimated that the central goal of therapeutic nuclear medicine is to increase radiopharmaceutical delivery to tumour targets while sparing sensitive normal tissues. Among the factors to be considered in the choice of therapeutic radionuclides are: the decay mode, gamma-ray yield, half-lives and chemical reactivity. Several routes of administration are discussed and a number of manipulations which may be used to further improve radioparmaceutical delivery are outlined. The difficulty to perform accurate radiation dosimetry is also briefly examined. 14 refs., 1 tab

  7. Accounting for perception in random regret choice models: Weberian and generalized Weberian specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jang, S.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, regret-based choice models have been introduced in the travel behavior research community as an alternative to expected/random utility models. The fundamental proposition underlying regret theory is that individuals minimize the amount of regret they (are expected to) experience when

  8. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, W.N.; Mendelsohn, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  9. Testing the dual-route model of perceived gaze direction: Linear combination of eye and head cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otsuka, Yumiko; Mareschal, Isabelle; Clifford, Colin W G

    2016-06-01

    We have recently proposed a dual-route model of the effect of head orientation on perceived gaze direction (Otsuka, Mareschal, Calder, & Clifford, 2014; Otsuka, Mareschal, & Clifford, 2015), which computes perceived gaze direction as a linear combination of eye orientation and head orientation. By parametrically manipulating eye orientation and head orientation, we tested the adequacy of a linear model to account for the effect of horizontal head orientation on perceived direction of gaze. Here, participants adjusted an on-screen pointer toward the perceived gaze direction in two image conditions: Normal condition and Wollaston condition. Images in the Normal condition included a change in the visible part of the eye along with the change in head orientation, while images in the Wollaston condition were manipulated to have identical eye regions across head orientations. Multiple regression analysis with explanatory variables of eye orientation and head orientation revealed that linear models account for most of the variance both in the Normal condition and in the Wollaston condition. Further, we found no evidence that the model with a nonlinear term explains significantly more variance. Thus, the current study supports the dual-route model that computes the perceived gaze direction as a linear combination of eye orientation and head orientation.

  10. A model to improve the routing performance of Cognitive Radio Wireless Mesh Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesiba Morries Kola

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing demand for broadband wireless technologies has led to the scarcity, inefficient utilization, and underutilization of the spectrum. The Cognitive Radio (CR technology has emerged as the promising solution which improves the utilization of the spectrum. However, routing is a challenge due to the dynamic nature of the CR networks. The link quality varies in space and time as nodes join and leave the network. The network connectivity is intermittent due to node mobility and the activities of the primary user. The spectrum aware, spectrum agile, and interference aware routing protocols are vital for the sturdiness of the network and efficient utilization of the resources. We propose an interference aware, spectrum aware, and agile extended Weighted Cumulative Expected Transmission Time (xWCETT routing protocol. The protocol integrates the features of the Ad-hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV and the weighted cumulative expected transmission time (WCETT routing protocols. The xWCETT was simulated using the Network Simulator 2 and its performance compared with the AODV and the WCETT routing protocols. The xWCETT was evaluated with respect to quality of service related metrics and the results show that it outperformed the AODV and WCETT routing protocols.

  11. Route Generation for a Synthetic Character (BOT) Using a Partial or Incomplete Knowledge Route Generation Algorithm in UT2004 Virtual Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanold, Gregg T.; Hanold, David T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new Route Generation Algorithm that accurately and realistically represents human route planning and navigation for Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT). The accuracy of this algorithm in representing human behavior is measured using the Unreal Tournament(Trademark) 2004 (UT2004) Game Engine to provide the simulation environment in which the differences between the routes taken by the human player and those of a Synthetic Agent (BOT) executing the A-star algorithm and the new Route Generation Algorithm can be compared. The new Route Generation Algorithm computes the BOT route based on partial or incomplete knowledge received from the UT2004 game engine during game play. To allow BOT navigation to occur continuously throughout the game play with incomplete knowledge of the terrain, a spatial network model of the UT2004 MOUT terrain is captured and stored in an Oracle 11 9 Spatial Data Object (SOO). The SOO allows a partial data query to be executed to generate continuous route updates based on the terrain knowledge, and stored dynamic BOT, Player and environmental parameters returned by the query. The partial data query permits the dynamic adjustment of the planned routes by the Route Generation Algorithm based on the current state of the environment during a simulation. The dynamic nature of this algorithm more accurately allows the BOT to mimic the routes taken by the human executing under the same conditions thereby improving the realism of the BOT in a MOUT simulation environment.

  12. Role of Travel Time Information on Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior Based on Real-World Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Essen, Mariska; Thomas, Tom; Chorus, Caspar; van Berkum, Eric C.

    2016-01-01

    It is widely believed that travel time information leads to reductions in traffic congestion and thereby improves network efficiency. An important research topic within travel behavior research is therefore how car drivers choose their routes, specifically when they receive travel time information.

  13. Animal models for oral transmission of Listeria monocytogenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E F D'Orazio

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has been recognized as a food borne pathogen in humans since the 1980s, but we still understand very little about oral transmission of L. monocytogenes or the host factors that determine susceptibility to gastrointestinal infection, due to the lack of an appropriate small animal model of oral listeriosis. Early feeding trials suggested that many animals were highly resistant to oral infection, and the more reproducible intravenous or intraperitoneal routes of inoculation soon came to be favored. There are a fair number of previously published studies using an oral infection route, but the work varies widely in terms of bacterial strain choice, the methods used for oral transmission, and various manipulations used to enhance infectivity. This mini review will summarize the published literature using oral routes of L. monocytogenes infection and will highlight recent technological advances that have made oral infection a more attractive model system.

  14. StateGEN/StateNET - A structured method to perform route comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cashwell, J.W.; Erickson, C.M.

    1989-01-01

    StateGEN/StateNET is a modeling structure and routing algorithm designed expressly to address the needs of state and local governments to perform analyses of routing alternatives. StateGEN/StateNET is designed to permit the user to construct a network and assign attributes of interest to the network on a personal computer (PC). The completed network is then transferred via a modem to the TRANSNET system and the preferred route is determined based upon attribute weights assigned by the user. This modeling structure permits the state or local government to perform a routing analysis, such as that required by the US Department of Transportation (DOT) for Highway Route-Controlled Quantity shipments of radioactive materials, with a minimum of resources. StateGEN/StateNET provides a computerized version of the DOT guidelines or allows the user to structure their own network parameters. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is the Department of Energy (DOE) lead organization for transportation research and development. The DOE Office of Defense Programs has been the prime sponsor of development of models and associated databases used to analyze the impacts of the transportation of radioactive materials. The routing algorithms used in StateGEN/StateNET were based on the existing models on TRANSNET, a system which was developed to enable outside users to access analytical codes and associated data developed for the DOE

  15. StateGEN/StateNET--A structured method to perform route comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cashwell, J.W.; Erickson, C.M.

    1989-01-01

    StateGEN/StateNET is a modelling structure and routing algorithm designed expressly to address the needs of state and local governments to perform analyses of routing alternatives. StateGEN/StateNET is designed to permit the user to construct a network and assign attributes of interest to the network on a personal computer (PC). The completed network is then transferred via a modem to the TRANSNET system (Cashwell, 1989) and the preferred route is determined based upon attribute weights assigned by the user. This modelling structure permits the state or local to perform a routing analysis, such as that required by the US Department of Transportation (DOT) for Highway Route-Controlled Quantity shipments of radioactive materials, with a minimum of resources. StateGEN/StateNET provides a computerized version of the DOT guidelines (Cashwell, 1989) or allows the user to structure their own network parameters. Sandia national Laboratories (SNL) is the Department of Energy's (DOE) lead organization for transportation research and development. The DOE Office of Defense Programs has been the prime sponsor of development of models and associated databases used to analyze the impacts of the transportation of radioactive materials. The routing algorithms used in StateGEN/StateNET were based on the existing models on TRANSNET, a system which was developed to enable outside users to access analytical codes and associated data developed for the DOE. 2 refs

  16. Planning routes around the world: International evidence for southern route preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunyé, Tad T.; Andonova, Elena; Meneghetti, Chiara; Noordzij, Matthijs Leendert; Pazzaglia, Francesca; Wienemann, Rasmus; Mahoney, Caroline R.; Taylor, Holly A.

    2012-01-01

    Three studies test whether the southern route preference, which describes the tendency for route planners to disproportionately select south- rather than north-going routes, can be attributed to regional elevation patterns; specifically, we ask whether this effect replicates in three topographically

  17. The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Lessler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed introductions of disease is small (<1 per day but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

  18. Routes into the Mainstream: Career Choices of Women and Minorities. Occasional Paper No. 124.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, Sue E.

    Joint implications from five recent studies on occupational choice indicate that a more in-depth concentration on the occupational consistency or discontinuity of women and minorities will provide direction for future academic discipline and policy for this population. The discipline and policy process is potentially one of the most important…

  19. Modeling tourists joint choices of transportation and destination : towards an analytical tool to support the marketing of complex tourism services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper introduces a model to describe tourists’ joint choices of transportation and destination. The proposed modeling approach is based on the principles and methodology of decompositional choice modeling. It represents an extension of the models that have traditionally been applied to single

  20. Determinants of Awareness, Consideration, and Choice Set Size in University Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, Philip L.; Brown, Jennifer

    2002-01-01

    Developed and tested a model of students' university "brand" choice using five individual-level variables (ethnic group, age, gender, number of parents going to university, and academic ability) and one situational variable (duration of search) to explain variation in the sizes of awareness, consideration, and choice decision sets. (EV)

  1. A Dual-Route Perspective on Eye Movements of Dyslexic Readers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawelka, Stefan; Gagl, Benjamin; Wimmer, Heinz

    2010-01-01

    This study assessed eye movement abnormalities of adolescent dyslexic readers and interpreted the findings by linking the dual-route model of single word reading with the E-Z Reader model of eye movement control during silent sentence reading. A dysfunction of the lexical route was assumed to account for a reduced number of words which received…

  2. Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Lance; Ferguson, John; Hoffman, Karla; Donohue, George; Beradino, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

  3. Using the hybrid fuzzy goal programming model and hybrid genetic algorithm to solve a multi-objective location routing problem for infectious waste disposaL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wichapa, Narong; Khokhajaikiat, Porntep

    2017-07-01

    Disposal of infectious waste remains one of the most serious problems in the social and environmental domains of almost every nation. Selection of new suitable locations and finding the optimal set of transport routes to transport infectious waste, namely location routing problem for infectious waste disposal, is one of the major problems in hazardous waste management. Design/methodology/approach: Due to the complexity of this problem, location routing problem for a case study, forty hospitals and three candidate municipalities in sub-Northeastern Thailand, was divided into two phases. The first phase is to choose suitable municipalities using hybrid fuzzy goal programming model which hybridizes the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy goal programming. The second phase is to find the optimal routes for each selected municipality using hybrid genetic algorithm which hybridizes the genetic algorithm and local searches including 2-Opt-move, Insertion-move and ?-interchange-move. Findings: The results indicate that the hybrid fuzzy goal programming model can guide the selection of new suitable municipalities, and the hybrid genetic algorithm can provide the optimal routes for a fleet of vehicles effectively. Originality/value: The novelty of the proposed methodologies, hybrid fuzzy goal programming model, is the simultaneous combination of both intangible and tangible factors in order to choose new suitable locations, and the hybrid genetic algorithm can be used to determine the optimal routes which provide a minimum number of vehicles and minimum transportation cost under the actual situation, efficiently.

  4. Using the hybrid fuzzy goal programming model and hybrid genetic algorithm to solve a multi-objective location routing problem for infectious waste disposaL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichapa, Narong; Khokhajaikiat, Porntep

    2017-01-01

    Disposal of infectious waste remains one of the most serious problems in the social and environmental domains of almost every nation. Selection of new suitable locations and finding the optimal set of transport routes to transport infectious waste, namely location routing problem for infectious waste disposal, is one of the major problems in hazardous waste management. Design/methodology/approach: Due to the complexity of this problem, location routing problem for a case study, forty hospitals and three candidate municipalities in sub-Northeastern Thailand, was divided into two phases. The first phase is to choose suitable municipalities using hybrid fuzzy goal programming model which hybridizes the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy goal programming. The second phase is to find the optimal routes for each selected municipality using hybrid genetic algorithm which hybridizes the genetic algorithm and local searches including 2-Opt-move, Insertion-move and ?-interchange-move. Findings: The results indicate that the hybrid fuzzy goal programming model can guide the selection of new suitable municipalities, and the hybrid genetic algorithm can provide the optimal routes for a fleet of vehicles effectively. Originality/value: The novelty of the proposed methodologies, hybrid fuzzy goal programming model, is the simultaneous combination of both intangible and tangible factors in order to choose new suitable locations, and the hybrid genetic algorithm can be used to determine the optimal routes which provide a minimum number of vehicles and minimum transportation cost under the actual situation, efficiently.

  5. Simulated Annealing Technique for Routing in a Rectangular Mesh Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noraziah Adzhar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the process of automatic design for printed circuit boards (PCBs, the phase following cell placement is routing. On the other hand, routing process is a notoriously difficult problem, and even the simplest routing problem which consists of a set of two-pin nets is known to be NP-complete. In this research, our routing region is first tessellated into a uniform Nx×Ny array of square cells. The ultimate goal for a routing problem is to achieve complete automatic routing with minimal need for any manual intervention. Therefore, shortest path for all connections needs to be established. While classical Dijkstra’s algorithm guarantees to find shortest path for a single net, each routed net will form obstacles for later paths. This will add complexities to route later nets and make its routing longer than the optimal path or sometimes impossible to complete. Today’s sequential routing often applies heuristic method to further refine the solution. Through this process, all nets will be rerouted in different order to improve the quality of routing. Because of this, we are motivated to apply simulated annealing, one of the metaheuristic methods to our routing model to produce better candidates of sequence.

  6. Route-Over Forwarding Techniques in a 6LoWPAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Weigel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available 6LoWPAN plays a major role within the protocol stack for the future Internet of Things. Its fragmentation mechanism enables transport of IPv6 datagrams with the required minimum MTU of 1280 bytes over 802.15.4-based networks. With the goal of a fully standardized WSN protocol stack currently necessitating a route-over approach, i.e., routing at the IP-layer, there are two main choices for any 6LoWPAN implementation with regard to datagram fragmentation: Hop-by-hop assembly or a cross-layered direct mode, which forwards individual 6LoWPAN fragments before the whole datagram has arrived. In addition to these two straightforward approaches, we propose enhancements based on adaptive rate-restriction for the direct forwarding and a retry control for both modes to reduce the number of losses of larger datagrams. An evaluation of these modes in a simulation environment and a hardware testbed indicate that the proposed enhancements can considerably improve PRR and latency within 6LoWPAN networks.

  7. Application of a random effects negative binomial model to examine tram-involved crash frequency on route sections in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Logan, David; Sarvi, Majid

    2016-07-01

    Safety is a key concern in the design, operation and development of light rail systems including trams or streetcars as they impose crash risks on road users in terms of crash frequency and severity. The aim of this study is to identify key traffic, transit and route factors that influence tram-involved crash frequencies along tram route sections in Melbourne. A random effects negative binomial (RENB) regression model was developed to analyze crash frequency data obtained from Yarra Trams, the tram operator in Melbourne. The RENB modelling approach can account for spatial and temporal variations within observation groups in panel count data structures by assuming that group specific effects are randomly distributed across locations. The results identify many significant factors effecting tram-involved crash frequency including tram service frequency (2.71), tram stop spacing (-0.42), tram route section length (0.31), tram signal priority (-0.25), general traffic volume (0.18), tram lane priority (-0.15) and ratio of platform tram stops (-0.09). Findings provide useful insights on route section level tram-involved crashes in an urban tram or streetcar operating environment. The method described represents a useful planning tool for transit agencies hoping to improve safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Traffic assignment models in large-scale applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær

    the potential of the method proposed and the possibility to use individual-based GPS units for travel surveys in real-life large-scale multi-modal networks. Congestion is known to highly influence the way we act in the transportation network (and organise our lives), because of longer travel times...... of observations of actual behaviour to obtain estimates of the (monetary) value of different travel time components, thereby increasing the behavioural realism of largescale models. vii The generation of choice sets is a vital component in route choice models. This is, however, not a straight-forward task in real......, but the reliability of the travel time also has a large impact on our travel choices. Consequently, in order to improve the realism of transport models, correct understanding and representation of two values that are related to the value of time (VoT) are essential: (i) the value of congestion (VoC), as the Vo...

  9. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  10. Determinants of choice of delivery place: Testing rational choice theory and habitus theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broda, Anja; Krüger, Juliane; Schinke, Stephanie; Weber, Andreas

    2018-05-07

    The current study uses two antipodal social science theories, the rational choice theory and the habitus theory, and applies these to describe how women choose between intraclinical (i.e., hospital-run birth clinics) and extraclinical (i.e., midwife-led birth centres or home births) delivery places. Data were collected in a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey among 189 women. A list of 22 determinants, conceptualized to capture the two theoretical concepts, were rated on a 7-point Likert scale with 1 = unimportant to 7 = very important. The analytic method was structural equation modelling. A model was built, in which the rational choice theory and the habitus theory as latent variables predicted the choice of delivery place. With regards to the choice of delivery place, 89.3% of the women wanted an intraclinical and 10.7% an extraclinical delivery place at the time of their last child's birth. Significant differences between women with a choice of an intraclinical or extraclinical delivery place were found for 14 of the 22 determinants. In the structural equation model, rational choice theory determinants predicted a choice of intraclinical delivery and habitus theory determinants predicted a choice of extraclinical delivery. The two theories had diametrically opposed effects on the choice of delivery place. Women are more likely to decide on intraclinical delivery when arguments such as high medical standards, positive evaluations, or good advanced information are rated important. In contrast, women are more likely to decide on extraclinical delivery when factors such as family atmosphere during birth, friendliness of health care professionals, or consideration of the woman's interests are deemed important. A practical implication of our study is that intraclinical deliveries may be promoted by providing comprehensive information, data and facts on various delivery-related issues, while extraclinical deliveries may be fostered by healthcare

  11. Predictors of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics choice options: A meta-analytic path analysis of the social-cognitive choice model by gender and race/ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Miller, Matthew J; Cusick, Megan E; Penn, Lee T; Truong, Nancy N

    2018-01-01

    We tested the interest and choice portion of social-cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) in the context of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) domains. Data from 143 studies (including 196 independent samples) conducted over a 30-year period (1983 through 2013) were subjected to meta-analytic path analyses. The interest/choice model was found to fit the data well over all samples as well as within samples composed primarily of women and men and racial/ethnic minority and majority persons. The model also accounted for large portions of the variance in interests and choice goals within each path analysis. Despite the general predictive utility of SCCT across gender and racial/ethnic groups, we did find that several parameter estimates differed by group. We present both the group similarities and differences and consider their implications for future research, intervention, and theory refinement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Trip Energy Estimation Methodology and Model Based on Real-World Driving Data for Green Routing Applications: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holden, Jacob [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Van Til, Harrison J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gonder, Jeffrey D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Lei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-09

    A data-informed model to predict energy use for a proposed vehicle trip has been developed in this paper. The methodology leverages nearly 1 million miles of real-world driving data to generate the estimation model. Driving is categorized at the sub-trip level by average speed, road gradient, and road network geometry, then aggregated by category. An average energy consumption rate is determined for each category, creating an energy rates look-up table. Proposed vehicle trips are then categorized in the same manner, and estimated energy rates are appended from the look-up table. The methodology is robust and applicable to almost any type of driving data. The model has been trained on vehicle global positioning system data from the Transportation Secure Data Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and validated against on-road fuel consumption data from testing in Phoenix, Arizona. The estimation model has demonstrated an error range of 8.6% to 13.8%. The model results can be used to inform control strategies in routing tools, such as change in departure time, alternate routing, and alternate destinations to reduce energy consumption. This work provides a highly extensible framework that allows the model to be tuned to a specific driver or vehicle type.

  13. VINE ROUTES IN BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyuben Hristov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a scheme for the modern vine route in Bulgaria. Five basic vine routes and one international, between Bulgaria, Macedonia and Greece are defined. All routes consider characteristic varieties of grapes and kinds of vine products. Vine tourist products combined with visits of important natural and anthropological object are in the bases of the defined routes. The described routes are an important contribution to development of alternative tourist products in the country.

  14. Robust against route failure using power proficient reliable routing in MANET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Malathi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to propose a novel routing protocol for Mobile Adhoc Network communication which reduces the route failure during transmission. The proposed routing protocol uses 3 salient parameters to discover the path which ensure the reliable communication. The quality of the channel, link quality and energy level of the node are the major reasons for unintentional node failure in mobile Adhoc network. So the proposed routing protocol considers these three parameters to select the best forwarder node in the path. The reliable data communication is achieved by transmitting data via path selected by the proposed routing scheme has been proven using network simulator (NS2. Keywords: Channel quality, Link quality, Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET, Residual energy

  15. The integrated model for solving the single-period deterministic inventory routing problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahim, Mohd Kamarul Irwan Abdul; Abidin, Rahimi; Iteng, Rosman; Lamsali, Hendrik

    2016-08-01

    This paper discusses the problem of efficiently managing inventory and routing problems in a two-level supply chain system. Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) policy is an integrating decisions between a supplier and his customers. We assumed that the demand at each customer is stationary and the warehouse is implementing a VMI. The objective of this paper is to minimize the inventory and the transportation costs of the customers for a two-level supply chain. The problem is to determine the delivery quantities, delivery times and routes to the customers for the single-period deterministic inventory routing problem (SP-DIRP) system. As a result, a linear mixed-integer program is developed for the solutions of the SP-DIRP problem.

  16. Short-term memory, executive control, and children's route learning

    OpenAIRE

    Purser, H. R.; Farran, E. K.; Courbois, Y.; Lemahieu, A.; Mellier, D.; Sockeel, P.; Blades, M.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and visuospatial long-term memory; the route-learning task was conducted using a maze in a virtual environment. In contrast to previous research, correlation...

  17. Modeling duration choice in space–time multi-state supernetworks for individual activity-travel scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liao, F.

    2016-01-01

    Multi-state supernetworks have been advanced recently for modeling individual activity-travel scheduling decisions. The main advantage is that multi-dimensional choice facets are modeled simultaneously within an integral framework, supporting systematic assessments of a large spectrum of policies

  18. Building sustainable supply chains: consumer choice or direct management?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hebditch, David; Blackmore, Emma

    2012-06-15

    Putting a 'carbon label' on products to show how much carbon dioxide is emitted during their production, transport and disposal has been heralded as a powerful route to sustainability within companies' supply chains. Several leading firms have joined the Carbon Trust carbon labelling scheme over the past five years, including UK-based retail giant Tesco, which as early as 2007 promised to use carbon labels on all its products. But earlier this year, the multinational said it was dropping carbon labels and instead directly managing its supply chains. Many other companies are similarly choosing direct management over consumer choice as the most effective route to emission reductions. In so doing, they are shouldering greater responsibility for the emissions and impacts of their supply chains. But environmental concerns must not be allowed to trump development needs and companies must not unfairly disadvantage smaller-scale producers in developing countries.

  19. Impact of the second semester University Modeling Instruction course on students’ representation choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryl McPadden

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Representation use is a critical skill for learning, problem solving, and communicating in science, especially in physics where multiple representations often scaffold the understanding of a phenomenon. University Modeling Instruction, which is an active-learning, research-based introductory physics curriculum centered on students’ use of scientific models, has made representation use a primary learning goal with explicit class time devoted to introducing and coordinating representations as part of the model building process. However, because of the semester break, the second semester course, Modeling Instruction-Electricity and Magnetism (MI-EM, contains a mixture of students who are returning from the Modeling Instruction-mechanics course (to whom we refer to as “returning students” and students who are new to Modeling Instruction with the MI-EM course (to whom we refer to as “new students”. In this study, we analyze the impact of MI-EM on students’ representation choices across the introductory physics content for these different groups of students by examining both what individual representations students choose and their average number of representations on a modified card-sort survey with a variety of mechanics and EM questions. Using Wilcoxon-signed-rank tests, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests, Cliff’s delta effect sizes, and box plots, we compare students’ representation choices from pre- to postsemester, from new and returning students, and from mechanics and EM content. We find that there is a significant difference between returning and new students’ representation choices, which serves as a baseline comparison between Modeling Instruction and traditional lecture-based physics classes. We also find that returning students maintain a high representation use across the MI-EM semester, while new students see significant growth in their representation use regardless of content.

  20. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C S; Benson, C; Kersten, D; Schrater, P

    2010-09-14

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) "probability matching"-a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans-occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning.

  1. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  2. A Performance Study of LEACH and Direct Diffusion Routing Protocols in Wireless Sensor Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fakher, S.; Sharshar, K.; Moawad, M.I.; Shokair, M.

    2016-01-01

    The Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is composed of a large number of sensor nodes with limited computation communication, and battery facilities. One of the common applications of this network is environment monitoring through sensing motion, measuring temperature, humidity and radiation. One of the basic activities in WSN is data gathering which represents a great challenge. Many routing protocols are proposed for that network to collect and aggregate the data. The most popular ones are hierarchy and data centric routing protocols. The main goal of this study is to identify the most preferable routing protocol, to be used in each mobility model. This paper studies the performance of LEACH (Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy) from hierarchy routing protocol and direct diffusion from data centric routing protocol which is not clarified until now. Moreover, a comparison between LEACH and direct diffusion protocol using NS2 simulator will be made, and an analysis of these protocols will be conducted. The comparison includes packet delivery ratio, throughput, average energy ratio, average delay, network lifetime, and routing overhead. The performance is evaluated by varying the number of sensor nodes under three mobility models Reference Point Group Mobility Model (RPGM), Manhattan and random waypoint mobility model. Simulation results show that LEACH routing protocol has a good performance in RPGM and Manhattan than random waypoint mobility model. Direct diffusion has a good performance in random waypoint mobility model than in RPGM and Manhattan mobility model

  3. Impact of flow routing on catchment area calculations, slope estimates, and numerical simulations of landscape development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelef, Eitan; Hilley, George E.

    2013-12-01

    Flow routing across real or modeled topography determines the modeled discharge and wetness index and thus plays a central role in predicting surface lowering rate, runoff generation, likelihood of slope failure, and transition from hillslope to channel forming processes. In this contribution, we compare commonly used flow-routing rules as well as a new routing rule, to commonly used benchmarks. We also compare results for different routing rules using Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) topography to explore the impact of different flow-routing schemes on inferring the generation of saturation overland flow and the transition between hillslope to channel forming processes, as well as on location of saturation overland flow. Finally, we examined the impact of flow-routing and slope-calculation rules on modeled topography produced by Geomorphic Transport Law (GTL)-based simulations. We found that different rules produce substantive differences in the structure of the modeled topography and flow patterns over ALSM data. Our results highlight the impact of flow-routing and slope-calculation rules on modeled topography, as well as on calculated geomorphic metrics across real landscapes. As such, studies that use a variety of routing rules to analyze and simulate topography are necessary to determine those aspects that most strongly depend on a chosen routing rule.

  4. Choice Rules and Accumulator Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a preference accumulation model that can be used to implement a number of different multi-attribute heuristic choice rules, including the lexicographic rule, the majority of confirming dimensions (tallying) rule and the equal weights rule. The proposed model differs from existing accumulators in terms of attribute representation: Leakage and competition, typically applied only to preference accumulation, are also assumed to be involved in processing attribute values. This allows the model to perform a range of sophisticated attribute-wise comparisons, including comparisons that compute relative rank. The ability of a preference accumulation model composed of leaky competitive networks to mimic symbolic models of heuristic choice suggests that these 2 approaches are not incompatible, and that a unitary cognitive model of preferential choice, based on insights from both these approaches, may be feasible. PMID:28670592

  5. Vehicle Routing Problem for Fashion Supply Chains with Cross-Docking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Hua Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cross-docking, as a strategy to reduce lead time and enhance the efficiency of the fashion supply chain, has attracted substantial attention from both the academy and the industry. Cross-docking is a critical part of many fashion and textiles supply chains in practice because it can help to achieve many supply chain strategies such as postponement. We consider a model where there are multiple suppliers and customers in a single cross-docking center. With such a model setting, the issue concerning the coordinated routing between the inbound and outbound routes is much more complex than many traditional vehicle routing problems (VRPs. We formulate the optimal route selection problems from the suppliers to the cross-docking center and from the cross-docking center to the customers as the respective VRPs. Based on the relationships between the suppliers and the customers, we integrate the two VRP models to optimize the overall traveling time, distance, and waiting time at the cross-docking center. In addition, we propose a novel mixed 0/1 integer linear programming model by which the complexity of the problem can be reduced significantly. As demonstrated by the simulation analysis, our proposed model can be solved very efficiently by a commonly used optimization software package.

  6. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  7. Obligatory Effort [Hishtadlut] as an Explanatory Model: A Critique of Reproductive Choice and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela

    2016-06-01

    Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices."

  8. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  9. A novel insight into beaconless geo-routing

    KAUST Repository

    Bader, Ahmed

    2012-12-01

    Beaconless geo-routing protocols have been traditionally analyzed assuming equal communication ranges for the data and control packets. This is not true in reality, since the communication range is in practice function of the packet length. As a consequence, a substantial discrepancy may exist between analytical and empirical results offered in beaconless geo-routing literature. Furthermore, performance of beaconless geo-routing protocols has typically considered using single-hop metrics only. End-to-end performance is considered in literature only occasionally and mainly in terms of simulation only. In this paper, we re-examine this class of protocols. We first incorporate practical packet detection models in order to capture the dependency of the communication range on the packet\\'s length. We then develop a detailed analytical framework for the end-to-end delay and energy performance of beaconless geo-routing protocols. Finally, we present two different application scenarios and study various tradeoffs in light of the framework developed. © 2012 IEEE.

  10. The role of visual and spatial working memory in forming mental models derived from survey and route descriptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghetti, Chiara; Labate, Enia; Pazzaglia, Francesca; Hamilton, Colin; Gyselinck, Valérie

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the involvement of spatial and visual working memory (WM) in the construction of flexible spatial models derived from survey and route descriptions. Sixty young adults listened to environment descriptions, 30 from a survey perspective and the other 30 from a route perspective, while they performed spatial (spatial tapping [ST]) and visual (dynamic visual noise [DVN]) secondary tasks - believed to overload the spatial and visual working memory (WM) components, respectively - or no secondary task (control, C). Their mental representations of the environment were tested by free recall and a verification test with both route and survey statements. Results showed that, for both recall tasks, accuracy was worse in the ST than in the C or DVN conditions. In the verification test, the effect of both ST and DVN was a decreasing accuracy for sentences testing spatial relations from the opposite perspective to the one learnt than if the perspective was the same; only ST had a stronger interference effect than the C condition for sentences from the opposite perspective from the one learnt. Overall, these findings indicate that both visual and spatial WM, and especially the latter, are involved in the construction of perspective-flexible spatial models. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  11. AIRLINE ITINERARY CHOICE IN A DYNAMIC SUPPLY ENVIRONMENT: RESULTS FROM A STATED PREFERENCE SURVEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzi Freund-Feinstei

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the choice of airline itineraries in dynamic settings using a tailored stated preference survey. The paper hypothesizes that airline itinerary choice is not a one-time event, but a continuous process during a certain time frame. Consumers can choose either to purchase an itinerary, deferring choice up to the end of the sales period, or completely declining the purchase. Understanding such consumers’ behavior is specifically relevant to the tourism industry, where firms are extensively utilizing internet websites to offer their products (e.g., airline tickets, hotel rooms to consumers. The paper describes the stated preference survey with real itineraries of various airlines on medium and long-haul routes. Choice sets are composed with dynamic and static variables and socio-economic variables. Questionnaires were distributed electronically among various groups of respondents, yielding a sample of 914 persons. Results show that (i itinerary choice deferring takes place, with differences between tourists and business-travelers, (ii the decision whether to defer choice is affected by dynamically changing variables and by the length of each respondent’s allocated choice period, and (iii the proposed methodology is adequate for investigating choice in dynamic settings and thus indicating its potential for further research in transportation planning and in tourism.

  12. Value of time determination for the city of Alexandria based on a disaggregate binary mode choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mounir Mahmoud Moghazy Abdel-Aal

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the travel demand modeling field, mode choice is the most important decision that affects the resulted road congestion. The behavioral nature of the disaggregate models and the associated advantages of such models over aggregate models have led to their extensive use. This paper proposes a framework to determine the value of time (VoT for the city of Alexandria through calibrating a disaggregate linear-in parameter utility-based binary logit mode choice model of the city. The mode attributes (travel time and travel cost along with traveler attributes (car ownership and income were selected as the utility attributes of the basic model formulation which included 5 models. Three additional alternative utility formulations based on the transformation of the mode attributes including relative travel cost (cost divided by income and log (travel time and the combination of the two transformations together were introduced. The parameter estimation procedure was based on the likelihood maximization technique and was performed in EXCEL. Out of 20 models estimated, only 2 models are considered successful in terms of the parameters estimates correct signs and the magnitude of their significance (t-statistics value. The determination of the VoT serves also in the model validation. The best two models estimated the value of time at LE 11.30/hr and LE 14.50/hr with a relative error of +3.7% and +33.0%, respectively, of the hourly salary of LE 10.9/hr. The proposed two models prove to be sensitive to trip time and income levels as factors affecting the choice mechanism. The sensitivity analysis was performed and proved the model with higher relative error is marginally more robust. Keywords: Transportation modeling, Binary mode choice, Parameter estimation, Value of time, Likelihood maximization, Sensitivity analysis

  13. Solar UV radiation exposure of seamen - Measurements, calibration and model calculations of erythemal irradiance along ship routes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feister, Uwe [German Meteorological Service, Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg - Richard-Assmann-Observatory, Am Observatorium 12, 15848 Lindenberg (Germany); Meyer, Gabriele; Kirst, Ulrich [German Social Accident Insurance Institution for Transport and Traffic, Ottenser Hauptstrasse 54, 22765 Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-05-10

    Seamen working on vessels that go along tropical and subtropical routes are at risk to receive high doses of solar erythemal radiation. Due to small solar zenith angles and low ozone values, UV index and erythemal dose are much higher than at mid-and high latitudes. UV index values at tropical and subtropical Oceans can exceed UVI = 20, which is more than double of typical mid-latitude UV index values. Daily erythemal dose can exceed the 30-fold of typical midlatitude winter values. Measurements of erythemal exposure of different body parts on seamen have been performed along 4 routes of merchant vessels. The data base has been extended by two years of continuous solar irradiance measurements taken on the mast top of RV METEOR. Radiative transfer model calculations for clear sky along the ship routes have been performed that use satellite-based input for ozone and aerosols to provide maximum erythemal irradiance and dose. The whole data base is intended to be used to derive individual erythemal exposure of seamen during work-time.

  14. A lower bound for the node, edge, and arc routing problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Lukas; Hasle, Geir; Wøhlk, Sanne

    2013-01-01

    The Node, Edge, and Arc Routing Problem (NEARP) was defined by Prins and Bouchenoua in 2004, although similar problems have been studied before. This problem, also called the Mixed Capacitated General Routing Problem (MCGRP), generalizes the classical Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP......), the Capacitated Arc Routing Problem (CARP), and the General Routing Problem. It captures important aspects of real-life routing problems that were not adequately modeled in previous Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) variants. The authors also proposed a memetic algorithm procedure and defined a set of test instances...... called the CBMix benchmark. The NEARP definition and investigation contribute to the development of rich VRPs. In this paper we present the first lower bound procedure for the NEARP. It is a further development of lower bounds for the CARP. We also define two novel sets of test instances to complement...

  15. Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wit, J.G.; Zuidberg, J.

    2016-01-01

    Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented

  16. Random regret minimization : Exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the

  17. The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

  18. Periodic Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem With Driver Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardiana Panggabean, Ellis; Mawengkang, Herman; Azis, Zainal; Filia Sari, Rina

    2018-01-01

    The paper develops a model for the optimal management of logistic delivery of a given commodity. The company has different type of vehicles with different capacity to deliver the commodity for customers. The problem is then called Periodic Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem (PHVRP). The goal is to schedule the deliveries according to feasible combinations of delivery days and to determine the scheduling of fleet and driver and routing policies of the vehicles. The objective is to minimize the sum of the costs of all routes over the planning horizon. We propose a combined approach of heuristic algorithm and exact method to solve the problem.

  19. A Mathematical Model and Algorithm for Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadovsky, Alexander V.

    2016-01-01

    A central challenge in managing today's commercial en route air traffic is the task of routing the aircraft in the presence of adverse weather. Such weather can make regions of the airspace unusable, so all affected flights must be re-routed. Today this task is carried out by conference and negotiation between human air traffic controllers (ATC) responsible for the involved sectors of the airspace. One can argue that, in so doing, ATC try to solve an optimization problem without giving it a precise quantitative formulation. Such a formulation gives the mathematical machinery for constructing and verifying algorithms that are aimed at solving the problem. This paper contributes one such formulation and a corresponding algorithm. The algorithm addresses weather uncertainty and has closed form, which allows transparent analysis of correctness, realism, and computational costs.

  20. Ship Pipe Routing Design Using NSGA-II and Coevolutionary Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wentie Niu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pipe route design plays a prominent role in ship design. Due to the complex configuration in layout space with numerous pipelines, diverse design constraints, and obstacles, it is a complicated and time-consuming process to obtain the optimal route of ship pipes. In this article, an optimized design method for branch pipe routing is proposed to improve design efficiency and to reduce human errors. By simplifying equipment and ship hull models and dividing workspace into three-dimensional grid cells, the mathematic model of layout space is constructed. Based on the proposed concept of pipe grading method, the optimization model of pipe routing is established. Then an optimization procedure is presented to deal with pipe route planning problem by combining maze algorithm (MA, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II, and cooperative coevolutionary nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (CCNSGA-II. To improve the performance in genetic algorithm procedure, a fixed-length encoding method is presented based on improved maze algorithm and adaptive region strategy. Fuzzy set theory is employed to extract the best compromise pipeline from Pareto optimal solutions. Simulation test of branch pipe and design optimization of a fuel piping system were carried out to illustrate the design optimization procedure in detail and to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  1. Built environment affecting visitors' walking choice in commercial areas? - A study with GPS experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahm, Y.; Yoon, H.

    2016-12-01

    Retail location is one of the most critical factors explaining the success of store operations. Store owners prefer to choose locations with high visibility and convenient transportation, which might be likely reasons for higher pedestrian volume, hence larger chance to capture impulse shoppers, resulting in more profits. While researches have focused on discerning relationship between pedestrian route choice and physical environments via indirect measures such as survey questionnaire and interviews, recent technologies such as Global Positioning System (GPS) enables collecting direct and precise waking route data. In this study, we investigate the physical environments in which pedestrians prefer to be in commercial district, and further analyze if such locations encompass stores with higher store revenues. The primary method is GPS experiment and travel diary for over hundred visitors of the study site, Hongik University commercial areas in Seoul, South Korea, and statistical analysis, Structural Equation Model (SEM). With SEM, we could assess endogenous latent variables indicating built environments, such as Density, Diversity, Destination Accessibility, Design, and Retail Attraction, and exogenous latent variable, the pedestrian walking choice, based on the observation of pedestrian volume and walking speed. Observed variables include the number of stores, building uses, kind of retail, and pedestrian volume, and walking speed. This research will shed light on planning commercial districts, emphasizing the role of pedestrian walking in the success of retail business, and providing a clue on how to encourage pedestrian visitation by improving physical environment. This work is supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055615)

  2. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Stinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

  3. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  4. Modelling and Initial Validation of the DYMO Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espensen, Kristian Asbjørn Leth; Kjeldsen, Mads Keblov; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2008-01-01

    A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an infrastructureless network established by a set of mobile devices using wireless communication. The Dynamic MANET On-demand (DYMO) protocol is a routing protocol for multi-hop communication in MANETs currently under development by the Internet Engineering Task...... Force (IETF). This paper presents a Coloured Petri Net (CPN) model of the mandatory parts of the DYMO protocol, and shows how scenario-based state space exploration has been used to validate key properties of the protocol. Our CPN modelling and verification work has spanned two revisions of the DYMO...... protocol specification and have had direct impact on the most recent version of the protocol specification....

  5. Intermittency route to chaos in a biochemical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Fuente, I M; Martinez, L; Veguillas, J

    1996-01-01

    The numerical analysis of a glycolytic model performed through the construction of a system of three differential-delay equations reveals a phenomenon of intermittency route to chaos. In our biochemical system, the consideration of delay time variations under constant input flux as well as frequency variations of the periodic substrate input flux allows us, in both cases, to observe a type of transition to chaos different from the 'Feigenbaum route'.

  6. Model of Optimal Cargo Transport Structure by Full Container Ship on Predefined Sailing Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serđo Kos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model for solving theproblem of defining optimal cargo transport structure, occurringwhen, on a predefined sailing route, adequate number ofcontainers of various types, masses and sizes, possibly includingRO!RO cargo, is to be selected, i.e., a "container lot" is to beestablished in loading ports with the aim of gaining maximumship profit and, at the same time, of exploiting useful load andtransport capacity of container ship as much as possible. Theimplementation of the proposed model enables considerableincrease in the efficiency of container ship operations. Themodel was tested using a numerical example with real data.The applied post-optimal analysis examines the influence ofchange in some values of the mathematical model on the resultingoptimal program.

  7. On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is

  8. Hazmat Routes (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) Hazardous Material Routes (NTAD) were developed using the 2004 First Edition TIGER/Line files. The routes are...

  9. An Indirect Route for Ethanol Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eggeman, T.; Verser, D.; Weber, E.

    2005-04-29

    The ZeaChem indirect method is a radically new approach to producing fuel ethanol from renewable resources. Sugar and syngas processing platforms are combined in a novel way that allows all fractions of biomass feedstocks (e.g. carbohydrates, lignins, etc.) to contribute their energy directly into the ethanol product via fermentation and hydrogen based chemical process technologies. The goals of this project were: (1) Collect engineering data necessary for scale-up of the indirect route for ethanol production, and (2) Produce process and economic models to guide the development effort. Both goals were successfully accomplished. The projected economics of the Base Case developed in this work are comparable to today's corn based ethanol technology. Sensitivity analysis shows that significant improvements in economics for the indirect route would result if a biomass feedstock rather that starch hydrolyzate were used as the carbohydrate source. The energy ratio, defined as the ratio of green energy produced divided by the amount of fossil energy consumed, is projected to be 3.11 to 12.32 for the indirect route depending upon the details of implementation. Conventional technology has an energy ratio of 1.34, thus the indirect route will have a significant environmental advantage over today's technology. Energy savings of 7.48 trillion Btu/yr will result when 100 MMgal/yr (neat) of ethanol capacity via the indirect route is placed on-line by the year 2010.

  10. The role of simulation in intertemporal choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garret eO'Connell

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available One route to understanding the thoughts and feelings of others is by mentally putting one’s self in their shoes and seeing the world from their perspective, called simulation. Simulation is potentially used not only for inferring how others feel, but also for predicting how we ourselves will feel in the future. For instance, one might judge the worth of a future reward by simulating how much it will eventually be enjoyed. In intertemporal choices between smaller immediate and larger delayed rewards, it is observed that as the length of delay increases, delayed larger rewards lose subjective value; a phenomenon known as temporal discounting. In this article, we develop a theoretical framework for the proposition that simulation mechanisms involved in empathising with others also underlie intertemporal choices. This framework yields a testable psychological account of temporal discounting based on simulation. Such an account, if experimentally validated, could have important implications for how simulation mechanisms are investigated, and makes predictions about special populations characterised by putative deficits in simulating others.

  11. Dynamics of career choice among students in undergraduate medical courses. A BEME systematic review : BEME Guide No. 33

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querido, S.; Vergouw, D.; Wigersma, L.; Batenburg, R.; de Rond, M.; ten Cate, TJ

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Due to the lack of a theoretically embedded overview of the recent literature on medical career decision-making, this study provides an outline of these dynamics. Since differences in educational routes to the medical degree likely affect career choice dynamics, this study focuses on

  12. Dynamics of career choice among students in undergraduate medical courses. A BEME systematic review: BEME Guide No. 33.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querido, S.J.; Vergouw, D.; Wigersma, L.; Batenburg, R.S.; Rond, M.E.J. de; Cate, O.T.J. ten

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Due to the lack of a theoretically embedded overview of the recent literature on medical career decision-making, this study provides an outline of these dynamics. Since differences in educational routes to the medical degree likely affect career choice dynamics, this study focuses on

  13. Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

  14. Transport Choice Modeling for the Evaluation of New Transport Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ander Pijoan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impact of the application of sustainable transport policies is essential in order to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transport sector. One of the most common approaches used for this purpose is that of traffic modelling and simulation, which consists of emulating the operation of an entire road network. This article presents the results of fitting 8 well known data science methods for transport choice modelling, the area in which more research is needed. The models have been trained with information from Biscay province in Spain in order to match as many of its commuters as possible. Results show that the best models correctly forecast more than 51% of the trips recorded. Finally, the results have been validated with a second data set from the Silesian Voivodeship in Poland, showing that all models indeed maintain their forecasting ability.

  15. ARBR: Adaptive reinforcement-based routing for DTN

    KAUST Repository

    Elwhishi, Ahmed

    2010-10-01

    This paper introduces a novel routing protocol in Delay Tolerant Networks (DTNs), aiming to solve the online distributed routing problem. By manipulating a collaborative reinforcement learning technique, a group of nodes can cooperate with each other and make a forwarding decision for the stored messages based on a cost function at each contact with another node. The proposed protocol is characterized by not only considering the contact time statistics under a novel contact model, but also looks into the feedback on user behavior and network conditions, such as congestion and buffer occupancy sampled during each previous contact with any other node. Therefore, the proposed protocol can achieve high efficiency via an adaptive and intelligent routing mechanism according to network conditions. Extensive simulation is conducted to verify the proposed protocol, where a comparison is made with a number of existing encounter-based routing protocols in term of the number of transmissions of each message, message delivery delay, and delivery ratio. The results of the simulation demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

  16. P-bRS: A Physarum-Based Routing Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingchuan Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Routing in wireless sensor networks (WSNs is an extremely challenging issue due to the features of WSNs. Inspired by the large and single-celled amoeboid organism, slime mold Physarum polycephalum, we establish a novel selecting next hop model (SNH. Based on this model, we present a novel Physarum-based routing scheme (P-bRS for WSNs to balance routing efficiency and energy equilibrium. In P-bRS, a sensor node can choose the proper next hop by using SNH which comprehensively considers the distance, energy residue, and location of the next hop. The simulation results show how P-bRS can achieve the effective trade-off between routing efficiency and energy equilibrium compared to two famous algorithms.

  17. A Model of Onion Routing With Provable Anonymity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-30

    Lysyanskaya. “A Formal Treatment of Onion Routing.” CRYPTO 2005, pp. 169.187, 2005. [4] David Chaum . “The dining cryptographers problem...1988. [5] David Chaum . “Untraceable Electronic Mail, Return Addresses, and Digital Pseudonyms.” Communi- cations of the ACM, 24(2), pp. 84-88, 1981...network layer.” ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security, pp. 193-206, 2002. [11] David Goldschlag, Michael Reed, and Paul Syverson

  18. Route and landmark selection tool (RULST) : user's manual.; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widing, M. A.

    2002-01-01

    The Route and Landmark Selection Tool (RULST) is a software program designed to assist military planners in defining geographical objects, such as routes, landmarks, spurs, and yards, at a given facility. Argonne National Laboratory is currently developing a prototype of this tool for use by the Military Traffic Management Command Transportation Engineering Agency (MTMCTEA). The primary objective of RULST is to populate database tables of facility objects for use in MTMCTEA models. RULST defines facility data for use in models such as Port Simulation (PORTSIM) and Transportation System Capability (TRANSCAP), which simulate the transportation of equipment through ports and military installations. The main purpose of RULST is to allow you to specify the relationships between landmarks and routes. The nodes, links, and landmarks that describe a facility are often predefined on the basis of the layout of the physical site

  19. Development and Application of a Human PBPK Model for Bromodichloromethane (BDCM) to Investigate Impacts of Multi-Route Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to its presence in water as a volatile disinfection byproduct, BDCM, which is mutagenic and a rodent carcinogen, poses a risk for exposure via multiple routes. We developed a refined human PBPK model for BDCM (including new chemical-specific human parameters) to evaluate the...

  20. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  1. A functional near-infrared spectroscopy study of lexical decision task supports the dual route model and the phonological deficit theory of dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Itamar; Izzetoglu, Meltem; Izzetoglu, Kurtulus; Onaral, Banu

    2014-01-01

    The dual route model (DRM) of reading suggests two routes of reading development: the phonological and the orthographic routes. It was proposed that although the two routes are active in the process of reading; the first is more involved at the initial stages of reading acquisition, whereas the latter needs more reading training to mature. A number of studies have shown that deficient phonological processing is a core deficit in developmental dyslexia. According to the DRM, when the Lexical Decision Task (LDT) is performed, the orthographic route should also be involved when decoding words, whereas it is clear that when decoding pseudowords the phonological route should be activated. Previous functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIR) studies have suggested that the upper left frontal lobe is involved in decision making in the LDT. The current study used fNIR to compare left frontal lobe activity during LDT performance among three reading-level groups: 12-year-old children, young adult dyslexic readers, and young adult typical readers. Compared to typical readers, the children demonstrated lower activity under the word condition only, whereas the dyslexic readers showed lower activity under the pseudoword condition only. The results provide evidence for upper left frontal lobe involvement in LDT and support the DRM and the phonological deficit theory of dyslexia.

  2. Stated Choice Experiments with Complex Ecosystem Changes: The Effect of Information Formats on Estimated Variances and Choice Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Hoehn, John P.; Lupi, Frank; Kaplowitz, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    Stated choice experiments about ecosystem changes involve complex information. This study examines whether the format in which ecosystem information is presented to respondents affects stated choice outcomes. Our analysis develops a utility-maximizing model to describe respondent behavior. The model shows how alternative questionnaire formats alter respondents’ use of filtering heuristics and result in differences in preference estimates. Empirical results from a large-scale stated choice e...

  3. WHETHER OPEN INNOVATION IS A BETTER CHOICE AS A MODEL OF INNOVATION FOR ORGANIZATIONS?

    OpenAIRE

    KANBUR, AYSUN; A. H. MOHAMED, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    This studypresents a review of innovation models and by taking consideration andexamining these models it is aimed to understand whether the model based onopen innovation is a better choice among all the other models. Fororganizations, innovation models generally demonstrate how to work in aninnovative point of view. Companies of today’s business life are striving todevelop their capabilities and their activities to become innovative companies.Many of the organizations try to find the most su...

  4. Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  5. Building a bridge into the future: Dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan eScherbaum

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  6. Generalized Lorenz models and their routes to chaos. II. Energy-conserving horizontal mode truncations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, D.; Musielak, Z.E.

    2007-01-01

    All attempts to generalize the three-dimensional Lorenz model by selecting higher-order Fourier modes can be divided into three categories, namely: vertical, horizontal and vertical-horizontal mode truncations. The previous study showed that the first method allowed only construction of a nine-dimensional system when the selected modes were energy-conserving. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that a five-dimensional model is the lowest-order generalized Lorenz model that can be constructed by the second method and that its route to chaos is the same as that observed in the original Lorenz model. It is shown that the onset of chaos in both systems is determined by a number of modes that describe the vertical temperature difference in a convection roll. In addition, a simple rule that allows selecting modes that conserve energy for each method is derived

  7. Novel Congestion-Free Alternate Routing Path Scheme using Stackelberg Game Theory Model in Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chitra

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Recently, wireless network technologies were designed for most of the applications. Congestion raised in the wireless network degrades the performance and reduces the throughput. Congestion-free network is quit essen- tial in the transport layer to prevent performance degradation in a wireless network. Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics and applied sciences that used in wireless network, political science, biology, computer science, philosophy and economics. e great challenges of wireless network are their congestion by various factors. E ective congestion-free alternate path routing is pretty essential to increase network performance. Stackelberg game theory model is currently employed as an e ective tool to design and formulate conges- tion issues in wireless networks. is work uses a Stackelberg game to design alternate path model to avoid congestion. In this game, leaders and followers are selected to select an alternate routing path. e correlated equilibrium is used in Stackelberg game for making better decision between non-cooperation and cooperation. Congestion was continuously monitored to increase the throughput in the network. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme could extensively improve the network performance by reducing congestion with the help of Stackelberg game and thereby enhance throughput.

  8. How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

  9. Modeling and Solving the Multi-depot Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Window by Considering the Flexible end Depot in Each Route

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mirabi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the multi-depot vehicle routing problem with time window in which each vehicle starts from a depot and there is no need to return to its primary depot after serving customers. The mathematical model which is developed by new approach aims to minimizing the transportation cost including the travelled distance, the latest and the earliest arrival time penalties. Furthermore, in order to reduce the problem searching space, a novel GA clustering method is developed. Finally, Experiments are run on number problems of varying depots and time window, and customer sizes. The method is compared to two other clustering techniques, fuzzy C means (FCM and K-means algorithm. Experimental results show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  10. Route planning of raw materials transportation in the industrial hub of Mariupol city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлія Вікторівна Булгакова

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The multi-modal freight transportation routes planning problem is viewed in this paper. The case study of iron ore deliveries to the metallurgical enterprises of Mariupol from Kryvyi Rih is presented. Based on the analysis of Ukrainian railroads and sea ports infrastructures six possible routes of multi-modal iron ore transportation are built. The paper presents a short review of route planning problem in multi-modal freight transportations, which are use sea and land parts together, regarding decision support methods of routes evaluation and selection. The lack of studies dedicated to fuzzy logic theory application for solving the stated problems is identified. The relevance of fuzzy set application to the route planning problem is proved. Taking into account the peculiarities of iron ore transportations technology, the following criterions of routes evaluation are chosen: «transportation costs», «delivery times», «transportation risks». The model of multicriterion decision-making of routes evaluation and the optimal route selection, based on fuzzy logic theory, is developed. Criteria of routes evaluation are set by three terms Gaussian and sigmoidal membership functions. The approach to each function construction is practice-based and executed together with iron ore supply chain manager. The model is created in MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Tool Box environment using Mamdani’s fuzzy inference

  11. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  12. Modelling of the high temperature behaviour of metallic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, R.

    1999-01-01

    The design of components of metallic high-temperature materials by the finite element method requires the application of phenomenological viscoplastic material models. The route from the choice of a convenient model, the numerical integration of the equations and the parameter identification to the design of components is described. The Chaboche-model is used whose evolution equations are explicitly integrated. The parameters are determined by graphical and numerical methods in order to use the material model for describing the deformation behaviour of a chromium steel and an intermetallic titanium aluminide alloy. (orig.)

  13. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2011-01-01

    and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice......Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  14. Modeling and Simulation of a Novel Relay Node Based Secure Routing Protocol Using Multiple Mobile Sink for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhumathy Perumal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Data gathering and optimal path selection for wireless sensor networks (WSN using existing protocols result in collision. Increase in collision further increases the possibility of packet drop. Thus there is a necessity to eliminate collision during data aggregation. Increasing the efficiency is the need of the hour with maximum security. This paper is an effort to come up with a reliable and energy efficient WSN routing and secure protocol with minimum delay. This technique is named as relay node based secure routing protocol for multiple mobile sink (RSRPMS. This protocol finds the rendezvous point for optimal transmission of data using a “splitting tree” technique in tree-shaped network topology and then to determine all the subsequent positions of a sink the “Biased Random Walk” model is used. In case of an event, the sink gathers the data from all sources, when they are in the sensing range of rendezvous point. Otherwise relay node is selected from its neighbor to transfer packets from rendezvous point to sink. A symmetric key cryptography is used for secure transmission. The proposed relay node based secure routing protocol for multiple mobile sink (RSRPMS is experimented and simulation results are compared with Intelligent Agent-Based Routing (IAR protocol to prove that there is increase in the network lifetime compared with other routing protocols.

  15. Multihop Wireless Networks Opportunistic Routing

    CERN Document Server

    Zeng, Kai; Li, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to opportunistic routing an emerging technology designed to improve the packet forwarding reliability, network capacity and energy efficiency of multihop wireless networks This book presents a comprehensive background to the technological challenges lying behind opportunistic routing. The authors cover many fundamental research issues for this new concept, including the basic principles, performance limit and performance improvement of opportunistic routing compared to traditional routing, energy efficiency and distributed opportunistic routing protocol desig

  16. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  17. A microkinetic model of the methanol oxidation over silver

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, A.; Lynggaard, H.; Stegelmann, C.

    2003-01-01

    A simple microkinetic model for the oxidation of methanol on silver based on surface science studies at UHV and low temperatures has been formulated. The reaction mechanism is a simple Langmuir-Hinshelwood mechanism, with one type of active oxygen and one route to formaldehyde and carbon dioxide......, respectively. The model explains observed reaction orders, selectivity, apparent activation enthalpies and the choice of industrial reaction conditions. More interesting the model disproves the notion that the mechanism deduced from surface science in UHV cannot be responsible for formaldehyde synthesis...

  18. Cooperative Route Planning for Multiple Aircraft in a Semifree ATC System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the Semifree Flight theory used in a civil air traffic control (ATC system to improve the capability of the traditional Free Flight mode. The progressiveness and hidden defects of the “Free Flight” model in civil aviation are analysed, and the Semifree Flight ATC system mode is introduced. Moreover, this paper presents the collaborative route planning method, which is the most important method used in the Semifree Flight ATC system. This collaborative route planning method can plan routes for each aircraft (either in flight or just before achieving flight in real time, and the routes can satisfy all the safety constraints. The final numerical simulations verify the correctness and practicability of the Semifree Flight theory and the collaborative route planning method.

  19. Technical note: A hydrological routing scheme for the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2+R tested in the Tapajós River basin in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. Pereira

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models are excellent tools for studying how climate change and land use affect surface hydrology. However, in order to assess the impacts of Earth processes on river flows, simulated changes in runoff need to be routed through the landscape. In this technical note, we describe the integration of the Ecosystem Demography (ED2 model with a hydrological routing scheme. The purpose of the study was to create a tool capable of incorporating to hydrological predictions the terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate, carbon dioxide, and land-use change, as simulated with terrestrial biosphere models. The resulting ED2+R model calculates the lateral routing of surface and subsurface runoff resulting from the terrestrial biosphere models' vertical water balance in order to determine spatiotemporal patterns of river flows within the simulated region. We evaluated the ED2+R model in the Tapajós, a 476 674 km2 river basin in the southeastern Amazon, Brazil. The results showed that the integration of ED2 with the lateral routing scheme results in an adequate representation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.76, Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.86, Pearson's R up to 0.88, and volume ratio up to 1.06 of daily to decadal river flow dynamics in the Tapajós. These results are a consistent step forward with respect to the no river representation common among terrestrial biosphere models, such as the initial version of ED2.

  20. Strategy-proof social choice

    OpenAIRE

    Barberà, Salvador, 1946-

    2010-01-01

    This paper surveys the literature on strategy-proofness from a historical perspective. While I discuss the connections with other works on incentives in mechanism design, the main emphasis is on social choice models. This article has been prepared for the Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, Volume 2, Edited by K. Arrow, A. Sen and K. Suzumura

  1. CulRoute: Gamified WebGIS3D platform for selection of touristic routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.P.L. Baptista

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The importance of tourist information disclosure on digital platforms is, nowadays, reinforced by public entities such as Turismo de Portugal and Turismo do Algarve. The incorporation of strategies to encourage greater interest and involvement of the users are likely to contribute to a more effective dissemination of tourist destinations and their historical and cultural heritage. This paper presents the concepts, strategies and technologies in the design and implementation of the gamified WebGIS3D platform named CulRoute. This platform enables the users to visualize and navigate the three-dimensional virtual models of monuments and to explore the 'treasures' of each monument in a gaming environment, as well as to test their knowledge by answering optional quizzes. From the list of visited monuments and other information available on the platform, the user can create customized routes, save them into files or print as maps for later use.

  2. A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  3. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

  4. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  5. Joint Power Charging and Routing in Wireless Rechargeable Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jie; Chen, Jian; Deng, Yansha; Wang, Xingwei; Aghvami, Abdol-Hamid

    2017-10-09

    The development of wireless power transfer (WPT) technology has inspired the transition from traditional battery-based wireless sensor networks (WSNs) towards wireless rechargeable sensor networks (WRSNs). While extensive efforts have been made to improve charging efficiency, little has been done for routing optimization. In this work, we present a joint optimization model to maximize both charging efficiency and routing structure. By analyzing the structure of the optimization model, we first decompose the problem and propose a heuristic algorithm to find the optimal charging efficiency for the predefined routing tree. Furthermore, by coding the many-to-one communication topology as an individual, we further propose to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) for the joint optimization of both routing and charging. The genetic operations, including tree-based recombination and mutation, are proposed to obtain a fast convergence. Our simulation results show that the heuristic algorithm reduces the number of resident locations and the total moving distance. We also show that our proposed algorithm achieves a higher charging efficiency compared with existing algorithms.

  6. Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

  7. A multi-objective location routing problem using imperialist competitive algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Mohammad Golmohammadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, most manufacturing units try to locate their requirements and the depot vehicle routing in order to transport the goods at optimum cost. Needless to mention that the locations of the required warehouses influence on the performance of vehicle routing. In this paper, a mathematical programming model to optimize the storage location and vehicle routing are presented. The first objective function of the model minimizes the total cost associated with the transportation and storage, and the second objective function minimizes the difference distance traveled by vehicles. The study uses Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA to solve the resulted problems in different sizes. The preliminary results have indicated that the proposed study has performed better than NSGA-II and PAES methods in terms of Quality metric and Spacing metric.

  8. Honoring Choices Minnesota: preliminary data from a community-wide advance care planning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kent S; Kottke, Thomas E; Schettle, Sue

    2014-12-01

    Advance care planning (ACP) increases the likelihood that individuals who are dying receive the care that they prefer. It also reduces depression and anxiety in family members and increases family satisfaction with the process of care. Honoring Choices Minnesota is an ACP program based on the Respecting Choices model of La Crosse, Wisconsin. The objective of this report is to describe the process, which began in 2008, of implementing Honoring Choices Minnesota in a large, diverse metropolitan area. All eight large healthcare systems in the metropolitan area agreed to participate in the project, and as of April 30, 2013, the proportion of hospitalized individuals 65 and older with advance care directives in the electronic medical record was 12.1% to 65.6%. The proportion of outpatients aged 65 and older was 11.6% to 31.7%. Organizations that had sponsored recruitment initiatives had the highest proportions of records containing healthcare directives. It was concluded that it is possible to reduce redundancy by recruiting all healthcare systems in a metropolitan area to endorse the same ACP model, although significantly increasing the proportion of individuals with a healthcare directive in their medical record requires a campaign with recruitment of organizations and individuals. © 2014 The Authors.The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  9. An Endosymbiotic Evolutionary Algorithm for the Hub Location-Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Ung Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a capacitated hub location-routing problem (HLRP which combines the hub location problem and multihub vehicle routing decisions. The HLRP not only determines the locations of the capacitated p-hubs within a set of potential hubs but also deals with the routes of the vehicles to meet the demands of customers. This problem is formulated as a 0-1 mixed integer programming model with the objective of the minimum total cost including routing cost, fixed hub cost, and fixed vehicle cost. As the HLRP has impractically demanding for the large sized problems, we develop a solution method based on the endosymbiotic evolutionary algorithm (EEA which solves hub location and vehicle routing problem simultaneously. The performance of the proposed algorithm is examined through a comparative study. The experimental results show that the proposed EEA can be a viable solution method for the supply chain network planning.

  10. The influence of low-fare airlines on vacation choices of students : results of a stated portfolio choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a portfolio model of vacation choices of students. The portfolio model concerns the combined choice of destination type, transport mode, duration, accommodation, and travel party for vacations. In addition to usual transport modes such as airline, train, bus and

  11. A Machine Learning Approach to Air Traffic Route Choice Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Marcos, Rodrigo; García-Cantú, Oliva; Herranz, Ricardo

    2018-01-01

    Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFCM) is one of the constituent parts of Air Traffic Management (ATM). The goal of ATFCM is to make airport and airspace capacity meet traffic demand and, when capacity opportunities are exhausted, optimise traffic flows to meet the available capacity. One of the key enablers of ATFCM is the accurate estimation of future traffic demand. The available information (schedules, flight plans, etc.) and its associated level of uncertainty differ across the...

  12. Sensitivity Test of Parameters Influencing Flood Hydrograph Routing with a Diffusion-Wave Distributed using Distributed Hydrological Model, Wet Spa, in Ziarat Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    narges javidan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Flood routing is a procedure to calculate flood stage and water depth along a river or to estimate flood hydrograph at river downstream or at reservoir outlets using the upstream hydrography . In river basins, excess rainfall is routed to the basin outlet using flow routing techniques to generate flow hydrograph. A GIS-based distributed hydrological model, Wet Spa, has been under development suitable for flood prediction and watershed management on a catchment scale. The model predicts outflow hydrographs at the basin outlet or at any converging point in the watershed, and it does so in a user-specified time step. The model is physically based, spatially distributed and time-continuous, and simulates hydrological processes of precipitation, snowmelt, interception, depression, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, percolation, interflow, groundwater flow, etc. continuously both in time and space, for which the water and energy balance are maintained on each raster cell. Surface runoff is produced using a modified coefficient method based on the cellular characteristics of slope, land use, and soil type, and allowed to vary with soil moisture, rainfall intensity and storm duration. Interflow is computed based on the Darcy’s law and the kinematic approximation as a function of the effective hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic gradient, while groundwater flow is estimated with a linear reservoir method on a small subcatchment scale as a function of groundwater storage and a recession coefficient. Special emphasis is given to the overland flow and channel flow routing using the method of linear diffusive wave approximation, which is capable to predict flow discharge at any converging point downstream by a unit response function. The model accounts for spatially distributed hydrological and geophysical characteristics of the catchment. Determination of the river flow hydrograph is a main target in hydrology

  13. Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

  14. The Potential of Online Respondent Data for Choice Modeling in Transportation Research: Evidence from Stated Preference Experiments using Web-based Samples: Evidence from Stated Preference Experiments using Web-based Samples

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffer, Brice

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to analyze the potential of online survey services for conducting stated preference experiments in the field of transportation planning. Several web-products for hosting questionnaires are evaluated considering important features required when conducting a stated preference survey. Based on this evaluation, the open-source platform LimeSurvey is the most appropriated for this kind of research. A stated preference questionnaire about pedestrians’ route choice in a Sin...

  15. Optimal routing of coordinated aircraft to Identify moving surface contacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    either model for any asset’s route. Its inclusion may eliminate arcs that could be part of an optimal route for an asset. As such, it should be...Arma Aérea.” Revista general de Marina 8: 319–332. http://www.armada.mde.es/archivo/rgm/ 2016/08/2016_08.pdf. Marine Traffic. n.d. “Density maps

  16. Identifying and prioritizing ungulate migration routes for landscape-level conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Hall; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Horne, Jon S.

    2009-01-01

    As habitat loss and fragmentation increase across ungulate ranges, identifying and prioritizing migration routes for conservation has taken on new urgency. Here we present a general framework using the Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) that: (1) provides a probabilistic estimate of the migration routes of a sampled population, (2) distinguishes between route segments that function as stopover sites vs. those used primarily as movement corridors, and (3) prioritizes routes for conservation based upon the proportion of the sampled population that uses them. We applied this approach to a migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in a pristine area of southwest Wyoming, USA, where 2000 gas wells and 1609 km of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development. Our analysis clearly delineated where migration routes occurred relative to proposed development and provided guidance for on-the-ground conservation efforts. Mule deer migration routes were characterized by a series of stopover sites where deer spent most of their time, connected by movement corridors through which deer moved quickly. Our findings suggest management strategies that differentiate between stopover sites and movement corridors may be warranted. Because some migration routes were used by more mule deer than others, proportional level of use may provide a reasonable metric by which routes can be prioritized for conservation. The methods we outline should be applicable to a wide range of species that inhabit regions where migration routes are threatened or poorly understood.

  17. Secure Route Structures for Parallel Mobile Agents Based Systems Using Fast Binary Dispatch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Wang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In a distributed environment, where a large number of computers are connected together to enable the large-scale sharing of data and computing resources, agents, especially mobile agents, are the tools for autonomously completing tasks on behalf of their owners. For applications of large-scale mobile agents, security and efficiency are of great concern. In this paper, we present a fast binary dispatch model and corresponding secure route structures for mobile agents dispatched in parallel to protect the dispatch routes of agents while ensuring the dispatch efficiency. The fast binary dispatch model is simple but efficient with a dispatch complexity of O(log2n. The secure route structures adopt the combination of public-key encryption and digital signature schemes and expose minimal route information to hosts. The nested structure can help detect attacks as early as possible. We evaluated the various models both analytically and empirically.

  18. Comparison of Mucosal, Subcutaneous and Intraperitoneal Routes of Rat Leptospira Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilber, Anne-Laure; Belli, Patrick; Grezel, Delphine; Artois, Marc; Kodjo, Angeli; Djelouadji, Zoheira

    2016-01-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonosis found worldwide that is caused by a spirochete. The main reservoirs of Leptospira, which presents an asymptomatic infection, are wild rodents, including the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus). Experimental studies of the mechanisms of its renal colonization in rats have previously used an intraperitoneal inoculation route. However, knowledge of rat-rat transmission requires the use of a natural route of inoculation, such as a mucosal or subcutaneous route. We investigated for the first time the effects of subcutaneous and mucosal inoculation routes compared to the reference intraperitoneal route during Leptospira infection in adult rats. Infection characteristics were studied using Leptospira renal isolation, serology, and molecular and histological analyses. Leptospira infection was asymptomatic using each inoculation route, and caused similar antibody production regardless of renal colonization. The observed renal colonization rates were 8 out of 8 rats, 5 out of 8 rats and 1 out of 8 rats for the intraperitoneal, mucosal and subcutaneous inoculation routes, respectively. Thus, among the natural infection routes studied, mucosal inoculation was more efficient for renal colonization associated with urinary excretion than the subcutaneous route and induced a slower-progressing infection than the intraperitoneal route. These results can facilitate understanding of the infection modalities in rats, unlike the epidemiological studies conducted in wild rats. Future studies of other natural inoculation routes in rat models will increase our knowledge of rat-rat disease transmission and allow the investigation of infection kinetics. PMID:27031867

  19. Differences in physical environmental characteristics between adolescents' actual and shortest cycling routes: a study using a Google Street View-based audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoeven, Hannah; Van Hecke, Linde; Van Dyck, Delfien; Baert, Tim; Van de Weghe, Nico; Clarys, Peter; Deforche, Benedicte; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle

    2018-05-29

    The objective evaluation of the physical environmental characteristics (e.g. speed limit, cycling infrastructure) along adolescents' actual cycling routes remains understudied, although it may provide important insights into why adolescents prefer one cycling route over another. The present study aims to gain insight into the physical environmental characteristics determining the route choice of adolescent cyclists by comparing differences in physical environmental characteristics between their actual cycling routes and the shortest possible cycling routes. Adolescents (n = 204; 46.5% boys; 14.4 ± 1.2 years) recruited at secondary schools in and around Ghent (city in Flanders, northern part of Belgium) were instructed to wear a Global Positioning System device in order to identify cycling trips. For all identified cycling trips, the shortest possible route that could have been taken was calculated. Actual cycling routes that were not the shortest possible cycling routes were divided into street segments. Segments were audited with a Google Street View-based tool to assess physical environmental characteristics along actual and shortest cycling routes. Out of 160 actual cycling trips, 73.1% did not differ from the shortest possible cycling route. For actual cycling routes that were not the shortest cycling route, a speed limit of 30 km/h, roads having few buildings with windows on the street side and roads without cycle lane were more frequently present compared to the shortest possible cycling routes. A mixed land use, roads with commercial destinations, arterial roads, cycle lanes separated from traffic by white lines, small cycle lanes and cycle lanes covered by lighting were less frequently present along actual cycling routes compared to the shortest possible cycling routes. Results showed that distance mainly determines the route along which adolescents cycle. In addition, adolescents cycled more along residential streets (even if no cycle lane was

  20. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.