Sample records for modeling regional seismic

  1. A model of characteristic earthquakes and its implications for regional seismicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López-Ruiz, R.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Pacheco, A.F.


    Regional seismicity (i.e. that averaged over large enough areas over long enough periods of time) has a size-frequency relationship, the Gutenberg-Richter law, which differs from that found for some seismic faults, the Characteristic Earthquake relationship. But all seismicity comes in the end from...... active faults, so the question arises of how one seismicity pattern could emerge from the other. The recently introduced Minimalist Model of Vázquez-Prada et al. of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originating from a single fault. Here, we show...... that a Characteristic Earthquake relationship together with a fractal distribution of fault lengths can accurately describe the total seismicity produced in a region. The resulting earthquake catalogue accounts for the addition of both all the characteristic and all the non-characteristic events triggered in the faults...

  2. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan


    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  3. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan


    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  4. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion (United States)


    reflected waveleld travels sourcewards through the crustal passes through a CIO transition region such as that layer of the tramition region, and the region...the transition, why this transmitted energy is maximum near to increase the amplitudes in the second grid by as much as te tramition and decream a the

  5. Three-dimensional crustal model of the Moravo-Silesian region obtained by seismic tomography

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Růžek, Bohuslav; Holub, Karel; Rušajová, Jana


    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2011), s. 87-107 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA200120701; GA MŽP SB/630/3/02; GA ČR GA205/03/0999 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515; CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : seismic tomography * 3D seismic velocity model * Moravo-Silesian region Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.700, year: 2011

  6. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania)


    Oros Eugen; Diaconescu Mihai


    The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania) and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0). Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of...

  7. 1D Forward Modeling of Regional Electrical Conductivity Structure Using Mineral Physics Constraints and Seismic Observables. (United States)

    Toffelmier, D. A.; Tyburczy, J. A.; Du Frane, W. L.; Roberts, J. J.


    Regional magnetotelluric (MT) studies are forward modeled to include new and relevant mineral physics constraints and seismic observations. Two MT studies; Superior Craton, Canada (Schultz et al., 1993) and the French Alps (Tarits et al., 2004) are forward modeled using recent olivine conductivity measurements made by Xu et al. (2000), and Du Frane et al. (2005) with an elevated electrical conductivity zone (-2.5 < log(σ - S/m) < -2) between approximately 200-400 km depth. The onset of this elevated conductivity zone roughly corresponds with the Lehmann seismic discontinuity and could signal a change in the deformation mechanism in major mantle minerals, or perhaps, the presence of mantle water (Karato 1992). Models have also been developed that incorporate a thin melt layer immediately above the 410 km seismic discontinuity, as proposed by Bercovici and Karato (2003). Although the exact electrical conductivity and thickness of this melt layer are quite speculative, a 10 km thick layer with a conductivity of approximately 1 order of magnitude or greater than that of the transition zone would be consistent with experimental constraints and should be detectable by long period MT measurements. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract W-7405-ENG-48.

  8. Regional Seismic Threshold Monitoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kvaerna, Tormod


    ... model to be used for predicting the travel times of regional phases. We have applied these attenuation relations to develop and assess a regional threshold monitoring scheme for selected subregions of the European Arctic...

  9. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization (United States)


    of these models is unrealistic because the Earth’s crust appears to be the most structurally and compositionally heterogeneous part of the planet ...segment is extracted (heavy dash) and scaled to fill the gap ( heav arrows). Scaling is performed in the g(p) domain, using a factor that varies linearly...Phys. Earth Planet . Interiors, 113, 11-24. Bonddr, I., and V. Ryaboy (1997). Regional travel-time tables for the Baltic Shield region, Technical

  10. Seismic potential of Bushehr region, NPP site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taghizadeh, G.A.; Peyman, M.; Behzadi, K.


    According to geological and seismological information and proposed model for plate tectonics of Iran, plates of Iran Arabia move north-eastwards with different velocities. This causes subduction of Iran plate by Arabian plate, folding of Zagros Range and seismic activities in the region. Investigation of recorded shocks in Bushehr Seismographic Network in recent 10 years, and historical seismicity record show that southern Zagros region should not be considered a single seismotectonic province, since it demonstrates at least distinct seismic characteristics in two aspects. First, eastern part of Qatar-Kazerun flexure suffers severe seismic activity, and Lar region has been devastated several times by destructive earthquakes in the present century. Second, Bushehr environment, which is located at the western part of Qatar-Kazerun line, according to historical records, bears considerable quiescence and is one of the seismically pacific quarters of the Iranian plateau. It is worth mentioning that, during the past 1000 years, the strongest earthquake close to Bushehr was a shock with a magnitude of 5, 50 Km distant. Accordingly, despite geographical proximity to seismically active Zagros belt, Bushehr bears considerably low seismicity and has relative quiescence and stability, and from this point, seismic characteristics of the region, relates to Arabian and Persian Gulf region than Iranian plateau. It follows that Bushehr region could be considered northern most part of Arabian plate. Should the complementary studies confirm the above conclusion, Bushehr would be the most promising region for development of important industrial projects. (Author)

  11. 1-D seismic velocity model and hypocenter relocation using double difference method around West Papua region (United States)

    Sabtaji, Agung; Nugraha, Andri Dian


    West Papua region has fairly high of seismicity activities due to tectonic setting and many inland faults. In addition, the region has a unique and complex tectonic conditions and this situation lead to high potency of seismic hazard in the region. The precise earthquake hypocenter location is very important, which could provide high quality of earthquake parameter information and the subsurface structure in this region to the society. We conducted 1-D P-wave velocity using earthquake data catalog from BMKG for April, 2009 up to March, 2014 around West Papua region. The obtained 1-D seismic velocity then was used as input for improving hypocenter location using double-difference method. The relocated hypocenter location shows fairly clearly the pattern of intraslab earthquake beneath New Guinea Trench (NGT). The relocated hypocenters related to the inland fault are also observed more focus in location around the fault.

  12. 1-D seismic velocity model and hypocenter relocation using double difference method around West Papua region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabtaji, Agung, E-mail:, E-mail: [Study Program of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciencies and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Indonesia’s Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics Region V, Jayapura 1572 (Indonesia); Nugraha, Andri Dian, E-mail: [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)


    West Papua region has fairly high of seismicity activities due to tectonic setting and many inland faults. In addition, the region has a unique and complex tectonic conditions and this situation lead to high potency of seismic hazard in the region. The precise earthquake hypocenter location is very important, which could provide high quality of earthquake parameter information and the subsurface structure in this region to the society. We conducted 1-D P-wave velocity using earthquake data catalog from BMKG for April, 2009 up to March, 2014 around West Papua region. The obtained 1-D seismic velocity then was used as input for improving hypocenter location using double-difference method. The relocated hypocenter location shows fairly clearly the pattern of intraslab earthquake beneath New Guinea Trench (NGT). The relocated hypocenters related to the inland fault are also observed more focus in location around the fault.

  13. Jalisco Regional Seismic Network (RESAJ) (United States)

    Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Suarez Plascencia, C.; Escudero, C. R.; Gomez, A.


    Many societies and their economies endure the disastrous consequences of destructive earthquakes. The Jalisco region is exposing to this natural hazard. Scientific knowledge constitutes the only way to avoid or at least to mitigate the negative effects of such events. Accordingly the study of geological and geophysical causes; structural, kinematics and dynamic characteristics; and destructive effects of such events is indispensable. The main objective of this project is to developed capability to monitor and to analyze the potential destructive earthquakes along the Jalisco region. This network will allows us to study the Rivera plate and the Jalisco block seismicity. Ten earthquakes greater than 7.4 occurred in the last 160 years, including the largest Mexican earthquake (8.2) producing considerable damage in the area. During this project we installed 20 telemetric seismic stations and we plan to deploy up to 30. The stations are component by 24 bit A/D, 6 channels Quanterra Q330-6 DAS, Lennartz Triaxial 1Hz wide band seismometer, a triaxial accelerometer episensor Model FBA ES-T from Kinemetrics and solar power supply. The data is transmitted using freewave Ethernet radios or wireless internet links. All stations will transmit the data in to the central at Puerto Vallarta where all data is processed using Antelope system to localize and make preliminary evaluations of the events in almost real time and stored for future research. This network will produce high quality data enough to evaluate the eight previously identified seismic zones along Jalisco.

  14. LLNL's Regional Seismic Discrimination Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanley, W; Mayeda, K; Myers, S; Pasyanos, M; Rodgers, A; Sicherman, A; Walter, W


    As part of the Department of Energy's research and development effort to improve the monitoring capability of the planned Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty international monitoring system, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLNL) is testing and calibrating regional seismic discrimination algorithms in the Middle East, North Africa and Western Former Soviet Union. The calibration process consists of a number of steps: (1) populating the database with independently identified regional events; (2) developing regional boundaries and pre-identifying severe regional phase blockage zones; (3) measuring and calibrating coda based magnitude scales; (4a) measuring regional amplitudes and making magnitude and distance amplitude corrections (MDAC); (4b) applying the DOE modified kriging methodology to MDAC results using the regionalized background model; (5) determining the thresholds of detectability of regional phases as a function of phase type and frequency; (6) evaluating regional phase discriminant performance both singly and in combination; (7) combining steps 1-6 to create a calibrated discrimination surface for each stations; (8) assessing progress and iterating. We have now developed this calibration procedure to the point where it is fairly straightforward to apply earthquake-explosion discrimination in regions with ample empirical data. Several of the steps outlined above are discussed in greater detail in other DOE papers in this volume or in recent publications. Here we emphasize the results of the above process: station correction surfaces and their improvement to discrimination results compared with simpler calibration methods. Some of the outstanding discrimination research issues involve cases in which there is little or no empirical data. For example in many cases there is no regional nuclear explosion data at IMS stations or nearby surrogates. We have taken two approaches to this problem, first finding and using mining explosion data when available, and

  15. Broadband seismology and small regional seismic networks (United States)

    Herrmann, Robert B.


    In the winter of 1811-12, three of the largest historic earthquakes in the United States occurred near New Madrid, Missouri. Seismicity continues to the present day throughout a tightly clustered pattern of epicenters centered on the bootheel of Missouri, including parts of northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. In 1990, the New Madrid seismic zone/Central United States became the first seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains to be designated a priority research area within the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). This Professional Paper is a collection of papers, some published separately, presenting results of the newly intensified research program in this area. Major components of this research program include tectonic framework studies, seismicity and deformation monitoring and modeling, improved seismic hazard and risk assessments, and cooperative hazard mitigation studies.

  16. Complex researches on substantiation of construction and seismic stability of large dams in seismic region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negmatullaev, S.Kh.; Yasunov, P.A.


    This article is devoted to complex researches on substantiation of construction and seismic stability of large dams (Nurec hydroelectric power station) in seismic region. Geological, seismological, model, and engineering investigations are discussed in this work. At construction of Nurec hydroelectric power station the rich experience is accumulated. This experience can be used in analogous seismically active regions at construction similar hydroelectric power stations.

  17. Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, S.C.C.; Johnston, A.C.; Chiu, J.M. [Memphis State Univ., TN (United States). Center for Earthquake Research and Information


    The seismic activity in the southern Appalachian area was monitored by the Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network (SARSN) since late 1979 by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at Memphis State University. This network provides good spatial coverage for earthquake locations especially in east Tennessee. The level of activity concentrates more heavily in the Valley and Ridge province of eastern Tennessee, as opposed to the Blue Ridge or Inner Piedmont. The large majority of these events lie between New York - Alabama lineament and the Clingman/Ocoee lineament, magnetic anomalies produced by deep-seated basement structures. Therefore SARSN, even with its wide station spacing, has been able to define the essential first-order seismological characteristics of the Southern Appalachian seismic zone. The focal depths of the southeastern U.S. earthquakes concentrate between 8 and 16 km, occurring principally beneath the Appalachian overthrust. In cross-sectional views, the average seismicity is shallower to the east beneath the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces and deeper to the west beneath the Valley and Ridge and the North American craton. Results of recent focal mechanism studies by using the CERI digital earthquake catalog between October, 1986 and December, 1991, indicate that the basement of the Valley and Ridge province is under a horizontal, NE-SW compressive stress. Right-lateral strike-slip faulting on nearly north-south fault planes is preferred because it agrees with the trend of the regional magnetic anomaly pattern.

  18. Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, S.C.C.; Johnston, A.C.; Chiu, J.M.


    The seismic activity in the southern Appalachian area was monitored by the Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network (SARSN) since late 1979 by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at Memphis State University. This network provides good spatial coverage for earthquake locations especially in east Tennessee. The level of activity concentrates more heavily in the Valley and Ridge province of eastern Tennessee, as opposed to the Blue Ridge or Inner Piedmont. The large majority of these events lie between New York - Alabama lineament and the Clingman/Ocoee lineament, magnetic anomalies produced by deep-seated basement structures. Therefore SARSN, even with its wide station spacing, has been able to define the essential first-order seismological characteristics of the Southern Appalachian seismic zone. The focal depths of the southeastern U.S. earthquakes concentrate between 8 and 16 km, occurring principally beneath the Appalachian overthrust. In cross-sectional views, the average seismicity is shallower to the east beneath the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces and deeper to the west beneath the Valley and Ridge and the North American craton. Results of recent focal mechanism studies by using the CERI digital earthquake catalog between October, 1986 and December, 1991, indicate that the basement of the Valley and Ridge province is under a horizontal, NE-SW compressive stress. Right-lateral strike-slip faulting on nearly north-south fault planes is preferred because it agrees with the trend of the regional magnetic anomaly pattern

  19. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oros Eugen


    Full Text Available The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0. Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of Timisoara (January 2012 and March 2013 and the fourth within Hateg Basin, South Carpathians (October 2013. These sequences occurred within the epicentral areas of some strong historical earthquakes (Mw≥5.0. The main events had some macroseismic effects on people up to some few kilometers from the epicenters. Our results update the Romanian earthquakes catalogue and bring new information along the local seismic hazard sources models and seismotectonics.

  20. Improvement of IDC/CTBTO Event Locations in Latin America and the Caribbean Using a Regional Seismic Travel Time Model (United States)

    Given, J. W.; Guendel, F.


    The International Data Centre is a vital element of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification mechanism. The fundamental mission of the International Data Centre (IDC) is to collect, process, and analyze monitoring data and to present results as event bulletins to Member States. For the IDC and in particular for waveform technologies, a key measure of the quality of its products is the accuracy by which every detected event is located. Accurate event location is crucial for purposes of an On Site Inspection (OSI), which would confirm the conduct of a nuclear test. Thus it is important for the IDC monitoring and data analysis to adopt new processing algorithms that improve the accuracy of event location. Among them the development of new algorithms to compute regional seismic travel times through 3-dimensional models have greatly increased IDC's location precision, the reduction of computational time, allowing forward and inverse modeling of large data sets. One of these algorithms has been the Regional Seismic Travel Time model (RSTT) of Myers et al., (2011). The RSTT model is nominally a global model; however, it currently covers only North America and Eurasia in sufficient detail. It is the intention CTBTO's Provisional Technical Secretariat and the IDC to extend the RSTT model to other regions of the earth, e.g. Latin America-Caribbean, Africa and Asia. This is particularly important for the IDC location procedure, as there are regions of the earth for which crustal models are not well constrained. For this purpose IDC has launched a RSTT initiative. In May 2012, a technical meeting was held in Vienna under the auspices of the CTBTO. The purpose of this meeting was to invite National Data Centre experts as well as network operators from Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, Latin and North America to discuss the context under which a project to extend the RSTT model would be implemented. A total of 41 participants from 32 Member States

  1. Reducing Systematic Errors for Seismic Event Locations Using a Model Incorporating Anisotropic Regional Structures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Gideon P; Wiens, Douglas A


    ...) to predict travel times of P-wave propagation at distances of 2 - 14 degrees. At such distances, the phase Pn is in the seismic phase that is most frequently reported and that thus controls the location accuracy...

  2. Three-dimensional seismic velocity model of theWest Bohemia/Vogtland seismoactive region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Růžek, Bohuslav; Horálek, Josef


    Roč. 195, č. 2 (2013), s. 1251-1266 ISSN 0956-540X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2336; GA MŠk LM2010008 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : controlled source seismology * body waves * seismic tomography * crustal structure Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

  3. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the North Balkan region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. W. Musson


    Full Text Available A set of seismic hazard maps, expressed as horizontal peak ground acceleration, have been computed for a large area of Central and Eastern Europe covering the North Balkan area (Former Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania. These are based on: a a compound earthquake catalogue for the region; b a seismic source model of 50 zones compiled on the basis of tectonic divisions and seismicity, and c a probabilistic methodology using stochastic (Monte Carlo modelling. It is found that the highest hazard in the region comes from intermediate focus earthquakes occurring in the Vrancea seismic zone; here the hazard exceeds 0.4 g at return periods of 475 years. Special account has been taken of the directional nature of attenuation from this source.

  4. The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results


    Jochen Woessner; Danciu Laurentiu; Domenico Giardini; Helen Crowley; Fabrice Cotton; G. Grünthal; Gianluca Valensise; Ronald Arvidsson; Roberto Basili; Mine Betül Demircioglu; Stefan Hiemer; Carlo Meletti; Roger W. Musson; Andrea N. Rovida; Karin Sesetyan


    The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It m...

  5. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves (United States)


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  6. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves (United States)


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  7. An Investigation of Seismicity for the West Sumatra Region Indonesia (United States)

    Syafriani, S.


    The purpose of this research was to investigate the seismicity of the West Sumatra region in the coordinates area of 94° E – 104° E and 2° N - 4° S. Guttenberg-Richer magnitude-frequency relation and seismic risk have been computed. Historical data of earthquakes used from year of 1970 to 2017 with magnitude higher than 4. The study area was divided into 8 sub-regions based on seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic and geological models. The determination of seismotectonic characteristics was based on the level of seismic activity in a region (a value) and rock stress condition (b value). High a value was associated with high seismic activity, whereas high b values were associated with low stress rock conditions, and vice versa. Based on the calculation results, a and b values were obtained in the interval of 5.5-11.3 and 0.7-2. The highest b value was obtained in the sub region 5 (Nias islands), while the lowest b value was obtained in sub region 7 (the Mentawai islands). The sub region 7, Mentawai Islands was indicated as the seismic risk potential areas.

  8. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua


    We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

  9. Seismic hazard assessment of the Hanford region, Eastern Washington State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngs, R.R.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Power, M.S.; Swan, F.H. III


    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was made for a site within the Hanford region of eastern Washington state, which is characterized as an intraplate region having a relatively low rate of seismic activity. Probabilistic procedures, such as logic trees, were utilized to account for the uncertainties in identifying and characterizing the potential seismic sources in the region. Logic trees provide a convenient, flexible means of assessing the values and relative likelihoods of input parameters to the hazard model that may be dependent upon each other. Uncertainties accounted for in this way include the tectonic model, segmentation, capability, fault geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, and earthquake recurrence rate. The computed hazard results are expressed as a distribution from which confidence levels are assessed. Analysis of the results show the contributions to the total hazard from various seismic sources and due to various earthquake magnitudes. In addition, the contributions of uncertainties in the various source parameters to the uncertainty in the computed hazard are assessed. For this study, the major contribution to uncertainty in the computed hazard are due to uncertainties in the applicable tectonic model and the earthquake recurrence rate. This analysis serves to illustrate some of the probabilistic tools that are available for conducting seismic hazard assessments and for analyzing the results of these studies. 5 references, 7 figures

  10. Recent achievements of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in the CEI region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Vaccari, F.; Kouteva, M.


    A review of the recent achievements of the innovative neo-deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment through realistic earthquake scenarios has been performed. The procedure provides strong ground motion parameters for the purpose of earthquake engineering, based on the deterministic seismic wave propagation modelling at different scales - regional, national and metropolitan. The main advantage of this neo-deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the earthquake source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles. The neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure has been successfully applied to numerous metropolitan areas all over the world in the framework of several international projects. In this study some examples focused on CEI region concerning both regional seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation of the selected metropolitan areas are shown. (author)

  11. Seismic fault analysis of Chicoutimi region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woussen, G.; Ngandee, S.


    On November 25, 1988, an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter Scale occurred at a depth of 29 km in Precambrian bedrock in the Saguenay Region (Quebec). Given that the seismic event was located near a major zone of normal faults, it is important to determine if the earthquake could be associated with this large structure or with faults associated with this structure. This is discussed through a compilation and interpretation of structural discontinuities on key outcrops in the vicinity of the epicenter. The report is broken in four parts. The first part gives a brief overview of the geology in order to provide a geologic context for the structural measurements. The second comprises an analysis of fractures in each of the three lithotectonic units defined in the first part. The third part discusses the data and the fourth provides a conclusion. 30 refs., 53 figs

  12. Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kanpur city ... A seismic hazard map of Kanpur city has been developed considering the region-specific seismotectonic parameters within a 500-km radius by deterministic and probabilistic approaches. ... King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

  13. Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity (United States)

    Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.


    In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

  14. The lithospheric structure of the Western Carpathian-Pannonian Basin region based on the CELEBRATION 2000 seismic experiment and gravity modelling (United States)

    Tašárová, Alasonati; Afonso, J. C.; Bielik, M.; Götze, H.-J.; Hók, J.


    The lithospheric structure of the Western Carpathian-Pannonian Basin region was studied using 3-D modelling of the Bouguer gravity anomaly constrained by seismic models and other geophysical data. The thermal structure and density distribution in the shallow upper mantle were also estimated using a combination of petrological, geophysical, and mineral physics information (LitMod). This approach is necessary if the more complicated structure of the Pannonian Basin is to be better constrained. As a result, we have constructed the first 3-D gravity model of the region that combines various geophysical datasets and is consistent with petrological data. The model provides improved estimates of both the density distribution within the lithosphere and the depth to major density discontinuities. We present new maps of the thickness of major sedimentary basins and of the depth to the Moho and the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In our best-fitting model, the Pannonian Basin is characterised by extremely thin crust and lithospheric mantle, both of which have low density. A low-density uppermost asthenospheric mantle layer is also included at depths of 60-100 km. The Western Carpathians have only a thin crustal root and moderate densities. In contrast, the European Platform and Eastern Alps are characterised by lithosphere that is considerably thicker and denser. This inference is also supported by stripped gravity anomalies from which sediment, Moho and asthenospheric gravity contributions have been removed. These residual anomalies are characteristically low in the Western Carpathian-Pannonian Basin region, which suggests that both the ALCAPA and Tisza-Dacia microplates are 'exotic terranes' that are markedly different to the European Platform.

  15. Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region (United States)

    Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet


    In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

  16. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.


    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  17. Moment-ration imaging of seismic regions for earthquake prediction (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna


    An algorithm for predicting large earthquakes is proposed. The reciprocal ratio (mri) of the residual seismic moment to the total moment release in a region is used for imaging seismic moment precursors. Peaks in mri predict recent major earthquakes, including the 1985 Michoacan, 1985 central Chile, and 1992 Eureka, California earthquakes.

  18. Early seismicity of the Scottish Borders Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. W. Musson


    Full Text Available This paper considers the seismicity of Southern Scotland and Northern England up to the year 1750. This area was formerly a border area between two states that eventually became politically united. Much of the area is uplands, and the seismicity is moderate to low. This makes for some problems in studying historical seismicity, yet the area provides a number of case studies of general interest in the field of historical seismology, including a rare case of being able to track down a «missing» earthquake.

  19. Seismic waveform modeling over cloud (United States)

    Luo, Cong; Friederich, Wolfgang


    With the fast growing computational technologies, numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation achieved huge successes. Obtaining the synthetic waveforms through numerical simulation receives an increasing amount of attention from seismologists. However, computational seismology is a data-intensive research field, and the numerical packages usually come with a steep learning curve. Users are expected to master considerable amount of computer knowledge and data processing skills. Training users to use the numerical packages, correctly access and utilize the computational resources is a troubled task. In addition to that, accessing to HPC is also a common difficulty for many users. To solve these problems, a cloud based solution dedicated on shallow seismic waveform modeling has been developed with the state-of-the-art web technologies. It is a web platform integrating both software and hardware with multilayer architecture: a well designed SQL database serves as the data layer, HPC and dedicated pipeline for it is the business layer. Through this platform, users will no longer need to compile and manipulate various packages on the local machine within local network to perform a simulation. By providing users professional access to the computational code through its interfaces and delivering our computational resources to the users over cloud, users can customize the simulation at expert-level, submit and run the job through it.

  20. Operations plan for the Regional Seismic Test Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Regional Seismic Test Network program was established to provide a capability for detection of extremely sensitive earth movements. Seismic signals from both natural and man-made earth motions will be analyzed with the ultimate objective of accurately locating underground nuclear explosions. The Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, has designed an unattended seismic station capable of recording seismic information received at the location of the seismometers installed as part of that specific station. A network of stations is required to increase the capability of determining the source of the seismic signal and the location of the source. Current plans are to establish a five-station seismic network in the United States and Canada. The Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office, has been assigned the responsibility for deploying, installing, and operating these remote stations. This Operation Plan provides the basic information and tasking to accomplish this assignment

  1. Application of earthquake source modeling to assess the relative differences between seismic ground motion in the Eastern and Western regions of the United States and to characterize the type and direction of incoming seismic waves. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apsel, R.J.; Frazier, G.A.; Jurkevics, A.; Fried, J.C.


    This report assesses the relative difference between seismic ground motion in the Eastern (EUS) and Western (WUS) regions of the United States; and provides the necessary input to soil-structure interaction codes concerning type and propagation direction for incoming seismic waves. Implicit is the relevance to the Zion Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) site. The relative differences between seismic ground motions in EUS and WUS are assumed to be principally caused by differences in material attenuation. Earthquake rupture and wave propagation through the earth were simulated by performing numerical calculations. Typical results for a Western United States earth structure indicate that essentially no seismic energy emerges at angles shallower than 45 degrees except for low frequency emission from shallow zones of earthquake rupture. The same simulations are repeated for the ZNPP earth structure. The effective incoming waves are seen to be emerging within ten degrees of vertical at Zion for all source/receiver geometries and all frequencies of interest. At high frequency, the reduced material attenuation (corresponding to the higher EUS quality factors) additionally constrains the effective incoming waves to emerge within five degrees of vertical.

  2. 3D Modelling of Seismically Active Parts of Underground Faults via Seismic Data Mining (United States)

    Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Konstantaras, Anthony


    During the last few years rapid steps have been taken towards drilling for oil in the western Mediterranean sea. Since most of the countries in the region benefit mainly from tourism and considering that the Mediterranean is a closed sea only replenishing its water once every ninety years careful measures are being taken to ensure safe drilling. In that concept this research work attempts to derive a three dimensional model of the seismically active parts of the underlying underground faults in areas of petroleum interest. For that purpose seismic spatio-temporal clustering has been applied to seismic data to identify potential distinct seismic regions in the area of interest. Results have been coalesced with two dimensional maps of underground faults from past surveys and seismic epicentres, having followed careful reallocation processing, have been used to provide information regarding the vertical extent of multiple underground faults in the region of interest. The end product is a three dimensional map of the possible underground location and extent of the seismically active parts of underground faults. Indexing terms: underground faults modelling, seismic data mining, 3D visualisation, active seismic source mapping, seismic hazard evaluation, dangerous phenomena modelling Acknowledgment This research work is supported by the ESPA Operational Programme, Education and Life Long Learning, Students Practical Placement Initiative. References [1] Alves, T.M., Kokinou, E. and Zodiatis, G.: 'A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins', Marine Pollution Bulletin, In Press, 2014 [2] Ciappa, A., Costabile, S.: 'Oil spill hazard assessment using a reverse trajectory method for the Egadi marine protected area (Central Mediterranean Sea)', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 84 (1-2), pp. 44-55, 2014 [3] Ganas, A., Karastathis, V., Moshou, A., Valkaniotis, S., Mouzakiotis

  3. Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.


    At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

  4. BayesMT: Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms with first-motion data and a calibrated prior distribution of velocity models (United States)

    Ford, S. R.; Chiang, A.; Kim, S.; Letort, J.; Tkalcic, H.; Walter, W. R.


    The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a posterior distribution of velocity models based on different and complementary data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface wave group velocities, and regional body wave traveltimes. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct a prior distribution of Green's functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms with first-motion data. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-676976.

  5. Seismic Imaging and Seismicity Analysis in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangwei Yu


    Full Text Available In this study a new tomographic method is applied to over 43,400 high-quality absolute direct P arrival times and 200,660 relative P arrival times to determine detailed 3D crustal velocity structures as well as the absolute and relative hypocenter parameters of 2809 seismic events under the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The inferred velocity model of the upper crust correlates well with the surface geological and topographic features in the BTT region. In the North China Basin, the depression and uplift areas are imaged as slow and fast velocities, respectively. After relocation, the double-difference tomography method provides a sharp picture of the seismicity in the BTT region, which is concentrated along with the major faults. A broad low-velocity anomaly exists in Tangshan and surrounding area from 20 km down to 30 km depth. Our results suggest that the top boundary of low-velocity anomalies is at about 25.4 km depth. The event relocations inverted from double-difference tomography are clusted tightly along the Tangshan-Dacheng Fault and form three clusters on the vertical slice. The maximum focal depth after relocation is about 25 km depth in the Tangshan area.

  6. Seismic hazard assessment for oil-and-gas-bearing shelf zones: A case study of the North Caspian region (United States)

    Krylov, A. A.; Ivashchenko, A. I.; Kovachev, S. A.


    Seismic hazard assessment is done for oil field areas in the North Caspian region by a method earlier successfully applied to other areas. The method involves general seismic zoning data, available regional databases on recurrence of seismic shaking, known models of ground motion attenuation in seismoactive regions, and data on geological and geophysical surveys in the studied area. The assigned level of seismic hazard of the region is refined using probabilistic analysis; additionally, disaggregation is made and accelerograms are synthesized (the latter are necessary for seismic microzoning of particular sites using the numerical nonlinear analysis of ground seismic response). The amplitude and spectral characteristics of ground motions are obtained which are necessary for seismic resistance design and construction of petroleum industry objects.

  7. New comprehensive standard seismic noise models and 3D seismic noise variation for Morocco territory, North Africa, obtained using seismic broadband stations (United States)

    El Fellah, Younes; El-Aal, Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd; Harnafi, Mimoun; Villaseñor, Antonio


    In the current work, we constructed new comprehensive standard seismic noise models and 3D temporal-spatial seismic noise level cubes for Morocco in north-west Africa to be used for seismological and engineering purposes. Indeed, the original global standard seismic noise models published by Peterson (1993) and their following updates by Astiz and Creager (1995), Ekström (2001) and Berger et al. (2003) had no contributing seismic stations deployed in North Africa. Consequently, this preliminary study was conducted to shed light on seismic noise levels specific to north-west Africa. For this purpose, 23 broadband seismic stations recently installed in different structural domains throughout Morocco are used to study the nature and characteristics of seismic noise and to create seismic noise models for Morocco. Continuous data recorded during 2009, 2010 and 2011 were processed and analysed to construct these new noise models and 3D noise levels from all stations. We compared the Peterson new high-noise model (NHNM) and low-noise model (NLNM) with the Moroccan high-noise model (MHNM) and low-noise model (MLNM). These new noise models are comparable to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) models in the short period band; however, in the period range 1.2 s to 1000 s for MLNM and 10 s to 1000 s for MHNM display significant variations. This variation is attributed to differences in the nature of seismic noise sources that dominate Morocco in these period bands. The results of this study have a new perception about permanent seismic noise models for this spectacular region and can be considered a significant contribution because it supplements the Peterson models and can also be used to site future permanent seismic stations in Morocco.

  8. Imaging of 3-D seismic velocity structure of Southern Sumatra region using double difference tomographic method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lestari, Titik, E-mail: [Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (MCGA), Jalan Angkasa I No.2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat, 10720 (Indonesia); Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jalan Ganesa No.10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Nugraha, Andri Dian, E-mail: [Global Geophysical Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jalan Ganesa 10 Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)


    Southern Sumatra region has a high level of seismicity due to the influence of the subduction system, Sumatra fault, Mentawai fault and stretching zone activities. The seismic activities of Southern Sumatra region are recorded by Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (MCGA’s) Seismograph network. In this study, we used earthquake data catalog compiled by MCGA for 3013 events from 10 seismic stations around Southern Sumatra region for time periods of April 2009 – April 2014 in order to invert for the 3-D seismic velocities structure (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio). We applied double-difference seismic tomography method (tomoDD) to determine Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs ratio with hypocenter adjustment. For the inversion procedure, we started from the initial 1-D seismic velocity model of AK135 and constant Vp/Vs of 1.73. The synthetic travel time from source to receiver was calculated using ray pseudo-bending technique, while the main tomographic inversion was applied using LSQR method. The resolution model was evaluated using checkerboard test and Derivative Weigh Sum (DWS). Our preliminary results show low Vp and Vs anomalies region along Bukit Barisan which is may be associated with weak zone of Sumatran fault and migration of partial melted material. Low velocity anomalies at 30-50 km depth in the fore arc region may indicated the hydrous material circulation because the slab dehydration. We detected low seismic seismicity in the fore arc region that may be indicated as seismic gap. It is coincides contact zone of high and low velocity anomalies. And two large earthquakes (Jambi and Mentawai) also occurred at the contact of contrast velocity.

  9. Seismic monitoring in Namaqualand/Bushmanland region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malephane, H


    Full Text Available ). This deployment is meant to improve the sensitivity and hypocenter location of earthquakes as the South African National Seismological Network (SANSN) is relatively sparse. Figure 1: schematic diagram of the seismic stations. (PFC is a hand-held device...

  10. Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, M.J.; Garcia fernandez, M. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifcas, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. of Earth Sciences; GSAHP Ibero-Maghreb Working Group


    The paper illustrates the contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map: for the first time, a map of regional hazard source zones is presented and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved.

  11. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.


    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  12. The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.


    In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme

  13. Drawing a Seismic Source Zone Model Using Cumulative Seismic Moment Release and Moment Tensors in the Italian Peninsula (United States)

    Salimbeni, S.; Pondrelli, S.; D'Amico, V.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.


    In the frame of the elaboration of a new seismic hazard model of Italy, the identification of the areas with homogeneous tectonic regime is needed as one of the objective elements for designing the seismic source zones.A collection of all seismic moment tensors available for Italy for earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 since 1960 was gathered. It contains data from different catalogs or datasets, mainly populated by moment tensors computed through inversion of seismic waves (e.g. CMT, RCMT, GFZ and ETHZ MT and so on). However, for great earthquakes of the past, i.e. the 1962 Irpinia or the 1968 Belice earthquakes (both max Mw > 6.0) we used data obtained with other methods, but always considered the best available information for that time.All these data helped to find the predominant fault mechanism, considered the typical tectonic style for a region or, using regular grids, for all seismic areas of the Italian peninsula and regions around. To identify the most seismic regions, we used data from historical and recent instrumental seismicity (CPTI15, and INGV bulletins, combined on a regular grid, obtaining seismic moment release maps. Overlapping cumulative moment tensors to seismic moment release maps, we identified regions clearly characterized by different tectonics. In particular, the extension is the principal type of deformation along most of the Apennines, somewhere interrupted by strike-slip mechanism. Compressive deformation appears in the eastern Alps, in the outer part of the northernmost sector of the Apennines, in several parts of the Adriatic Sea and in the off shore of Northern Sicily. We considered this tectonic style mapping to help with drawing seismic area sources for the new seismic hazard model of Italy.

  14. Virginia Regional Seismic Network. Final report (1986--1992)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bollinger, G.A.; Sibol, M.S.; Chapman, M.C.; Snoke, J.A. [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ., Blacksburg, VA (US). Seismological Observatory


    In 1986, the Virginia Regional Seismic Network was one of the few fully calibrated digital seismic networks in the United States. Continued operation has resulted in the archival of signals from 2,000+ local, regional and teleseismic sources. Seismotectonic studies of the central Virginia seismic zone showed the activity in the western part to be related to a large antiformal structure while seismicity in the eastern portion is associated spatially with dike swarms. The eastern Tennessee seismic zone extends over a 300x50 km area and is the result of a compressive stress field acting at the intersection between two large crustal blocks. Hydroseismicity, which proposes a significant role for meteoric water in intraplate seismogenesis, found support in the observation of common cyclicities between streamflow and earthquake strain data. Seismic hazard studies have provided the following results: (1) Damage areas in the eastern United States are three to five times larger than those observed in the west. (2) Judged solely on the basis of cataloged earthquake recurrence rates, the next major shock in the southeast region will probably occur outside the Charleston, South Carolina area. (3) Investigations yielded necessary hazard parameters (for example, maximum magnitudes) for several sites in the southeast. Basic to these investigations was the development and maintenance of several seismological data bases.

  15. Seismic and Tectonic Regionalization of the State of Michoacan. (United States)

    Vazquez Rosas, R.; Aguirre, J.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.


    In Mexico it is a country with seismically active regions, mainly the zones that are next to the pacific where the zone of subduction is located, in this work we focus on the state of Michoacán, since this has not been completely studied in the last 30 years after the earthquake in Michoacán in 1985. The first most important step is to know the region which are the most seismic zones within the state and one way is to carry out the regionalization of Michoacán identifying the sources of earthquakes as well as where occur more frequently.If we could know each of the factors that influence seismicity and describe every point of the terrain, every rupture, every rock, etc., then we could describe in an analytical way the seismic process and predict the occurrence of earthquakes such as eclipses. Unfortunately the number of parameters is so enormous that we cannot arrive at an exact description; however, we can take advantage of statistical properties to evaluate probabilities, even in the case of small systems such as a particular seismic zone.In this paper, epicenter data were collected from 1970 to 2014, and with them a statistical study was carried out and the epicenter data plotted using data reported by the National Seismological Service and the IRIS catalog as well as some data from the Institute of engineering UNAM. Where earthquakes of equal and greater than M = 4 were used. Graphing these in function with the depth and with that it was graficaron and was made an overlapping the faults of the state and with that it was divided in 4 seismic zones in function of the faults and the localized seismicity.Zone A. is located within the Michoacán Block set of faults, as well as part of the subduction zone on the coast of the state. Seismicity in this area is high. Zone B-1. This is located between the limits of Jalisco and Michoacán in the set of faults called Tepalcatepec depression and limits with the Jorullo-Tacámbaro fracture. At this site seismicity is

  16. Seismicity surveying in central and north mexico region (United States)

    Gómez, J. M.; Guzmán, M.; Nieto, A.; Zúñiga, R.; Alaniz, S.; Barboza, R.


    The seismic nature of Central Mexico is poorly understood due to insufficient sampling. This region is characterized by a very low deformation rate. The seismic activity is variable and ranges from microseismicity to large earthquakes. Some large earthquakes have occurred with an unknown returning period; structural studies show this recurrence could range from hundreds to thousands of years. Some authors argue that there is not connection between ancient and recent activity. We carried out several seismic surveys in part of the TransMexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) and the Altiplano Central. We installed a temporal network, in order to record spatial seismic distribution. This network consists of 3-5 short period instruments, consisting of triaxial digital velocity recorders (0.01-4.5 Hz). We registered several swarms; one took place in Guanajuato and lasted for 2 weeks. Another crisis occurred at the northern limit of the TMVB at Sierra Gorda. Over five weeks several micro-earthquakes M < 2 were felt with anomaously high intensity. Relocated seismicity shows very shallow (< 10km) activity. The regional crust conditions appear to be roughly uniform even though the seismicity varies significantly. In some cases like seismic swarms, several microearthquakes are aligned, and seem to be quasi-parallel to the direction of the fault strike, some other times they are perpendicular. However, surface ruptures associated to earthquakes are not observed to confirm this. Then, a challenge is to locate the seismogenic structures, basically because of the surface structures are too old to be still active. Increased seismotectonic knowledge of this region may give further insight into the details of the interaction between surface structures driven by the regional stress field.

  17. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.


    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  18. Seismicity Surveying in Central and North Mexico Regions (United States)

    Nieto-Samaniego, A.; Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Guzman-Speziale, M.; Zuniga, R.; Alaniz-Alvarez, S.; Barboza, R.; Davalos, O.


    The seismic nature of Central Mexico is poorly understood due to insufficient sampling. We carried out a seismic survey in part of the TransMexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) and the Central Altiplano. These regions are characterized by a very low deformation rates. Seismic activity is variable and ranges from microseismicity to large earthquakes, but no large historic earthquake has been instrumentally recorded. Only few direct observations such as intensity reconstructions and recent paleoseismic studies (e.g. the Acambay-Tixmadej earthquake of 1912) are available. Large earthquakes have occurred but their recurrence period is unknown; structural studies show this recurrence could range from hundreds to thousands of years. In order to understand the regional seismic behavior, we installed a temporal network. This network consists of 3-5 short period instruments, consisting of 16-bits triaxial digital velocity recorders (0.01-4.5 Hz). We registered several seismic sequences over a period of several months. One of them took place in Guanajuato within a graben structure in the TMVB and lasted for 2 weeks. Another sequence occurred at the northern limit of the TMVB in the Sierra Gorda. Over five weeks, several micro-earthquakes M Sierra Gorda, the event distribution is aligned along a small valley, but perpendicular to the main structural grain imposed by the Sierra Madre Oriental range. In no instances have surface ruptures been observed; those seismogenic structures could be blind ones. A challenge is to locate this structures which are may be too old to be still active. Increased seismotectonic knowledge of this region will yield further insight into the details of the interaction between surface structures driven by the regional stress field. Our results provide evidence that the region requires more intensive seismic surveying, and in some cases that some structures have been reactivated recently.

  19. Extending Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Tomography to New Regions (United States)


    Seism . Soc. Am. 59, 1365–1398. Flanagan, M. P., D. A. Dodge, and S. C. Myers (2008). GT merge process: Version 2.0, LLNL technical report, LLNL-TR...Validation of regional and teleseismic travel-time models by relocating ground-truth events, Bull. Seism . Soc. Amer. 94: 897–919. Zhao, L.-S. (1993

  20. Seismic spectra of events at regional distances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Springer, D.L.; Denny, M.D.


    About 40 underground nuclear explosions detonated at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) were chosen for analysis of their spectra and any relationships they might have to source parameters such as yield, depth of burial, etc. The sample covered a large yield range (less than 20 kt to greater than 1 Mt). Broadband (0.05 to 20 Hz) data recorded by the four-station seismic network operated by Lawrence Livermore Laboratory were analyzed in a search for unusual explosion signatures in their spectra. Long time windows (total wave train) as well as shorter windows (for instance, P/sub n/) were used as input to calculate the spectra. Much variation in the spectra of the long windows is typical although some gross features are similar, such as a dominant peak in the microseismic window. The variation is such that selection of corner frequencies is impractical and yield scaling could not be determined. Spectra for one NTS earthquake showed more energy in the short periods (less than 1 sec) as well as in the long periods (greater than 8 sec) compared to those for NTS explosions

  1. Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra– Great Nicobar region: In search ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra–Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so ...

  2. Improving Seismic Velocity Models with Constraints from Autocorrelation of Ambient Seismic Noise and Signal (United States)


    AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2016-0098 TR-2016-0098 IMPROVING SEISMIC VELOCITY MODELS WITH CONSTRAINTS FROM AUTOCORRELATION OF AMBIENT SEISMIC ...TYPE Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 24 Apr 2014 – 24 Mar 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Improving Seismic Velocity Models with Constraints from...Autocorrelation of Ambient Seismic Noise and Signal 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-14-C-0214 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62601F 6

  3. Finite element models to represent seismic activity of the Indian plate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jayalakshmi


    Full Text Available Quantification of seismic activity is one of the most challenging problems faced by earthquake engineers in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Currently, this problem has been attempted using empirical approaches which are based on the regional earthquake recurrence relations from the available earthquake catalogue. However, at a specified site of engineering interest, these empirical models are associated with large number of uncertainties due to lack of sufficient data. Due to these uncertainties, engineers need to develop mechanistic models to quantify seismic activity. A wide range of techniques for modeling continental plates provides useful insights on the mechanics of plates and their seismic activity. Among the different continental plates, the Indian plate experiences diffused seismicity. In India, although Himalaya is regarded as a plate boundary and active region, the seismicity database indicates that there are other regions in the Indian shield reporting sporadic seismic activity. It is expected that mechanistic models of Indian plate, based on finite element method, simulate stress fields that quantify the seismic potential of active regions in India. This article explores the development of a finite element model for Indian plate by observing the simulated stress field for various boundary conditions, geological and rheological conditions. The study observes that the magnitude and direction of stresses in the plate is sensitive to these conditions. The numerical analysis of the models shows that the simulated stress field represents the active seismic zones in India.

  4. Modeling and Field Results from Seismic Stimulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majer, E.; Pride, S.; Lo, W.; Daley, T.; Nakagawa, Seiji; Sposito, Garrison; Roberts, P.


    Modeling the effect of seismic stimulation employing Maxwell-Boltzmann theory shows that the important component of stimulation is mechanical rather than fluid pressure effects. Modeling using Biot theory (two phases) shows that the pressure effects diffuse too quickly to be of practical significance. Field data from actual stimulation will be shown to compare to theory

  5. Seismicity, seismic input and site effects in the Sahel-Algiers region (north Algeria)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Oussadou, F.; Vaccari, F.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G.F.; Benouar, D.


    Algiers city is located in a seismogenic zone. To reduce the impact of seismic risk in this capital city, a realistic modelling of the seismic ground motion using the hybrid method that combines the finite-differences method and the modal summation, is conducted. For this purpose, a complete database in terms of geological, geophysical and earthquake data is constructed. A critical re-appraisal of the seismicity of the zone (2.25 deg. E-3.50 deg. E, 36.50 deg. N-37.00 deg. N) is performed and an earthquake list, for the period 1359-2002, is compiled. The analysis of existing and newly retrieved macroseismic information allowed the definition of earthquake parameters of macroseismic events for which a degree of reliability is assigned. Geological cross-sections have been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the city, caused by the 1989 Mont-Chenoua and the 1924 Douera earthquakes; a set of synthetic seismograms and response spectral ratio is produced for Algiers. The numerical results show that the soft sediments in Algiers centre are responsible of the noticed amplification of the seismic ground motion. (author)

  6. Model and observed seismicity represented in a two dimensional space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Caputo


    Full Text Available In recent years theoretical seismology lias introduced
    some formulae relating the magnitude and the seismic moment of earthquakes
    to the size of the fault and the stress drop which generated the
    In the present paper we introduce a model for the statistics of the
    earthquakes based on these formulae. The model gives formulae which
    show internal consistency and are also confirmed by observations.
    For intermediate magnitudes the formulae reproduce also the trend
    of linearity of the statistics of magnitude and moment observed in all the
    seismic regions of the world. This linear trend changes into a curve with
    increasing slope for large magnitudes and moment.
    When a catalogue of the magnitudes and/or the seismic moment of
    the earthquakes of a seismic region is available, the model allows to estimate
    the maximum magnitude possible in the region.

  7. Seismic velocity models for an internally asymmetric Mars (United States)

    Franck, S.; Kowalle, G.


    The well-known dichotomy in topography, surface age, and crustal structure between the northern lowlands and the southern uplands of Mars has been explained by both endogenic and exogenic processes. According to the used model this asymmetry might be a result of a certain mechanism of core formation influencing the following planetary evolution. Therefore it has been assumed that the present internal structure of Mars is characterized by different velocity-depth distributions of the mantle for the northern and southern hemisphere, respectively. For both regions significant differences in travel times of seismic waves were calculated. These results may be important for the future seismic exploration of Mars.

  8. Seismic quiescence in a frictional earthquake model (United States)

    Braun, Oleg M.; Peyrard, Michel


    We investigate the origin of seismic quiescence with a generalized version of the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquakes and show that it can be generated by a multipeaked probability distribution of the thresholds at which contacts break. Such a distribution is not assumed a priori but naturally results from the aging of the contacts. We show that the model can exhibit quiescence as well as enhanced foreshock activity, depending on the value of some parameters. This provides a generic understanding for seismic quiescence, which encompasses earlier specific explanations and could provide a pathway for a classification of faults.

  9. An engineering model for seismicity of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jayalakshmi


    Full Text Available This article explores an engineering approach to model the seismic activity in India. Finite element analysis is carried out to estimate the stresses and displacements in the Indian plate. Assuming the Himalayan boundary as fixed, the plate-driving forces are modelled as axial forces applied at the mid-oceanic ridge between the Indian and African plates. The effect of Aravali, Dharwar and Bundelkhand cratons on the stress patterns in the plate is also studied. The obtained results are validated to the extent possible with the available recorded seismicity data and measurements from Global Positioning System (GPS.

  10. Analysis of the seismic catalogues for the Vrancea Region, Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.


    Vrancea (Romania) is a geographical region between Eastern and Southern Carpathian Mountains. The region is characterized by a rather high level of seismic activity mainly at intermediate (up to 200 km) depths. These intermediate-depth earthquakes occur between 45 deg-46 deg N and 26 deg-27 deg E. The shallow earthquakes are dispersed over a much broader territory. We performed the comparative analysis of earthquake catalogues available for Vrancea region aiming at the compilation of a data set, to be as complete and homogeneous as possible, which, hopefully, will be used for the prediction of strong and possibly moderate earthquakes in the region by means of M8 algorithm. The two catalogues under study are: 1) Global Hypocenter Data Base catalogue, NEIC (GHDB, 1989) and 2) local Vrancea seismic catalogue (Moldoveanu et al., 1995) and their updates. (author)

  11. Induced seismicity in the Tbilisi region, East Georgia (United States)

    Melikadze, G.; Chelidze, T.; Jimsheladze, T.


    The paper gives an overview on the underground fluid and geodynamical response to oil production processes and discusses the possible oil pumping-induced seismicity in the Tbilisi region, Georgia. The intensive oil production in 80-s disturbs the regime of the central hydrothermal deposit and causes depletion and desalination of springs. Analysis of data in the period of intensive increase in oil production rate at the Samgori-Ninotsminda oil field in 1975 and its drastic decrease in 1985 points to close connection of hydrological regime of thermal water in boreholes #1 Botanic-Garden (1 BG) with oil production level: fast increase of oil production leads to drastic decrease of debit in the central borehole to almost zero and 20-meters decrease of water level in the with some relatively long (month) time lags. Water debit in 1BG begin slow recovery after termination of pumping. In Tbilisi region during 1970-1989 was produced more than 5.1010 to kg of oil so according to existing statistics the level of extraction is close to critical for appearance of induced seismicity. The stress change induced by hydrocarbon extraction is as a rule small, but the deviatory stress exceeding 0.01 MPa may trigger seismic activity. In order to distinguish the seismohydraulic effect we plotted the seismic activity (SA) versus time in the time interval, covering periods before (1960-1970), during (1970-1989) and after termination (1990-2004) of oil production interval. To exclude the effect of local seismic network changes during 1960-2004 only the catalog of the Tbilisi Seismic Observatory (TSO), where the registration conditions were not changed in this period has been used. In the analyzed catalog were included events occurred within circular area of radius 50 km around TSO. Three types of TSO catalog were analyzed: TSO1 included all events, recorded at the observatory, even smallest ones; TSO2 included only the events of magnitude M  2.5; TSO3 included the events of magnitude M

  12. Seismicity, structure and tectonics in the Arctic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Kanao


    Full Text Available The “Arctic” region, where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean, has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present. However, the seismic activities in the area are not adequately monitored. Therefore, by conducting long term monitoring of seismic phenomenon as sustainable parameters, our understanding of both the tectonic evolution of the Earth and the dynamic interaction between the cryosphere and geosphere in surface layers of the Earth will increase. In this paper, the association of the seismicity and structure of the Arctic region, particularly focused on Eurasian continent and surrounding oceans, and its relationship with regional evolution during the Earth's history is studied. The target areas cover representative tectonic provinces in the Eurasian Arctic, such as the wide area of Siberia, Baikal Rift Zone, Far East Russia, Arctic Ocean together with Greenland and Northern Canada. Based on discussion including characteristics of seismicity, heterogeneous structure of the crust and upper mantle, tectonic history and recent dynamic features of the Earth's surface in the Arctic are summarized.

  13. Underestimated seismic hazard in the south of the Issyk-Kul Lake region (northern Tian Shan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Korzhenkov


    Full Text Available The Tian Shan Mountains were formed in the result of the India–Eurasia collision, which leads to creation of contrast high-mountain relief and world known seismic activity. The seismic catastrophes, recorded instrumentally, have occurred to the north of the Issyk-Kul Lake region. There are also known significant earthquakes with magnitude being about 7 in western and eastern parts of the mentioned lake region. Only in the south of the Issyk-Kul depression the strong earthquakes recorded by the seismic network were not known. Our recent study in the south of the Issyk-Kul Lake region has revealed numerous active tectonic structures related to South Issyk-Kul Fault: faults and folds, responsible for strong earthquakes' occurrence. These were historical and paleoseismic deformations which led to changes in relief: fault scarps and significant rockslides. We have also found spectacular deformations in archeological monuments. All these deformations testify the location of epicentral areas of two strong historic (about 11th and 16th (? centuries AD and paleoearthquakes (Holocene and Late Pleistocene. Magnitude of ancient seismic events, according to parameters of the revealed fault scarps, were Ms ≥ 7 and seismic intensity I ≥ IX. All revealed seismic deformations are located to adyrs (piedmonts of the Terskey Ala-Too range bordered of the Issyk-Kul Lake depression in the south. Their formation is described by the model of a fault which rupture plane becomes shallower southward. This model is complicated by the presence of reverse thrusts. Here, we should admit the existence of a single zone of South Issyk-Kul Fault which is a long-lived feature which separates the structures with the different regime of movements during the Neotectonic time. All obtained data led us to a conclusion of significant underestimation of the seismic hazard in southern Issyk-Kul Lake region.

  14. Detailed seismic modeling of induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, B.F.; Steeghs, T.P.H.; Kraaijpoel, D.A.


    We present the results of a detailed seismic modeling study of induced seismicity observed at the Groningen gas field, situated in the North-eastern part of the Netherlands. Seismic simulations are valuable to support the interpretation of observed earthquake waveforms recordings and to increase the

  15. Correlation Between Electromagnetic Signals and Seismic Events on Central Colombia Region to Establish Seismic Precursors Existence (United States)

    Caneva, A.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.; Solano Fino, J. M.


    It was already shown by several authors around the world some kinds of correlation between electric and magnetic signals and seismic events looking for precursors to the last ones emitted from the seismic source. This investigation tends to establish a correlation between electro-magnetic (EM) signals on the ground surface and seismic events on the Colombian lithospheric system. The events correlation was made with data from the Seismological Network of the Sabana de Bogotá (RSSB for its acronym in Spanish), a temporal seismological network on Chichimene (Acacías, Meta, Colombia) and the National Seismological Network of Colombia (RSNC, for its acronym in Spanish). The project involved the design, construction and preliminary tests for the necessary instruments added to the RSSB as multi-parameter stations with seismic broadband, electric polarizing and non-polarizing dipoles and Earth's magnetic field sensors. Correlations were made considering time, frequency and `natural time' domains with filtering and preprocessing algorithms. Among the main results are the almost complete lack of electric disturbances known as Seismic Electric Signals (SES) and very few of the magnetic kind. However, another kind of long period magnetic disturbances for some stations and events where found. More instruments have to be deployed in order to get a better understanding of these disturbances and develop a robust model.

  16. Seismic Model-Based Inversion Using Matlab


    Leite, Emilson Pereira


    A simple methodology for mapping acoustic impedance and effective porosity from 3D seismic amplitude data using Matlab® was presented. This methodology can be used for a quick evaluation of reservoir properties, especially when powerful commercial programs are not available. An example with real data was also presented, showing that consistent 3D acoustic impedance models can be obtained if well-logs and 3D seismic data are available. A further improvement would be to obtain the low-frequenc...

  17. Seismic hazard assessment in the megacity of Blida (Algeria) and its surrounding regions using parametric-historic procedure (United States)

    Bellalem, Fouzi; Talbi, Abdelhak; Djellit, Hamou; Ymmel, Hayet; Mobarki, Mourad


    The region of Blida is characterized by a relatively high seismic activity, pointed especially during the past two centuries. Indeed, it experienced a significant number of destructive earthquakes such as the earthquakes of March 2, 1825 and January 2, 1867, with intensity of X and IX, respectively. This study aims to investigate potential seismic hazard in Blida city and its surrounding regions. For this purpose, a typical seismic catalog was compiled using historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years, and the recent instrumental seismicity dating back to 1900. The parametric-historic procedure introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) was applied to assess seismic hazard in the study region. It is adapted to deal with incomplete catalogs and does not use any subjective delineation of active seismic zones. Because of the lack of recorded strong motion data, three ground prediction models have been considered, as they seem the most adapted to the seismicity of the study region. Results are presented as peak ground acceleration (PGA) seismic hazard maps, showing expected peak accelerations with 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year period. As the most significant result, hot spot regions with high PGA values are mapped. For example, a PGA of 0.44 g has been found in a small geographical area centered on Blida city.

  18. Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dunand


    Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

  19. The SCEC Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) Software Framework for Distributing and Querying Seismic Velocity Models (United States)

    Maechling, P. J.; Taborda, R.; Callaghan, S.; Shaw, J. H.; Plesch, A.; Olsen, K. B.; Jordan, T. H.; Goulet, C. A.


    Crustal seismic velocity models and datasets play a key role in regional three-dimensional numerical earthquake ground-motion simulation, full waveform tomography, modern physics-based probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis, as well as in other related fields including geophysics, seismology, and earthquake engineering. The standard material properties provided by a seismic velocity model are P- and S-wave velocities and density for any arbitrary point within the geographic volume for which the model is defined. Many seismic velocity models and datasets are constructed by synthesizing information from multiple sources and the resulting models are delivered to users in multiple file formats, such as text files, binary files, HDF-5 files, structured and unstructured grids, and through computer applications that allow for interactive querying of material properties. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed the Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) software framework to facilitate the registration and distribution of existing and future seismic velocity models to the SCEC community. The UCVM software framework is designed to provide a standard query interface to multiple, alternative velocity models, even if the underlying velocity models are defined in different formats or use different geographic projections. The UCVM framework provides a comprehensive set of open-source tools for querying seismic velocity model properties, combining regional 3D models and 1D background models, visualizing 3D models, and generating computational models in the form of regular grids or unstructured meshes that can be used as inputs for ground-motion simulations. The UCVM framework helps researchers compare seismic velocity models and build equivalent simulation meshes from alternative velocity models. These capabilities enable researchers to evaluate the impact of alternative velocity models in ground-motion simulations and seismic hazard analysis applications

  20. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs (United States)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui


    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  1. Implications of Seismically Active Fault Structures in Ankay and Alaotra Regions of Northern and Central Madagascar (United States)

    Malloy, S.; Stamps, D. S.


    The purpose of the study is to gain a better understanding of the seismically active fault structures in central and northern Madagascar. We study the Ankay and Lake Alaotra regions of Madagascar, which are segmented by multiple faults that strike N-S. In general, normal seismic events occur on faults bounding the Alaotra-Ankay rift basin where Quaternary alluvium is present. Due to this pattern and moderate amounts of low magnitude seismic activity along these faults, it is hypothesized the region currently undergoes E-W extension. In this work we test how variations in fault strength and net slip changes influence expected crustal movement in the region. Using the Coulomb stress failure point as a test of strength we are able to model the Alaotra-Ankay region using MATLAB Coulomb 3.3.01. This program allows us to define realistic Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus of mapped rock compositions in the region, i.e. paragneiss and orthogneiss, create 3D fault geometries, and calculate static stress changes with coinciding surface displacements. We impose slip along multiple faults and calculate seismic moment that we balance by the 3 observed earthquake magnitudes available in the USGS CMT database. Our calculations of surface displacements indicate 1-3 millimeters could be observed across the Alaotra-Ankay rift. These values are within the observable range of precision GNSS observations, therefore our results will guide future research into the area and direct potential GNSS station installation.

  2. Seismic scattering in the subduction zone of the Middle America region (United States)

    Dominguez-Ramirez, Luis Antonio

    Seismic scattering is the direct consequence of the changes in the elastic properties of the medium. These so-call heterogeneities play a fundamental role for the understanding of the propagation of seismic waves and their possible effect on the analysis of seismic risk. This dissertation examines the scattering properties of Middle America region at continental scale, and provides a discussion of the current methods aimed to model the effect of small-scale heterogeneities in the crust. Using data from a portable array deployed in Mexico perpendicular to the trench, we identified and modeled trapped crustal waves that were previously undocumented. When low frequency fseismic records suggested that the structure formed by the flat-subducting slab and the crust behaves very similar to a sedimentary basin but at a larger scale. These observations could explain differences in attenuation along different paths of propagation in this area.

  3. Numerical modeling of tunneling-induced seismicity (United States)

    Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Urpi, Luca


    Removal of rock mass in mining environment has been associated since long-time with seismic event of magnitude 3 and above, with the potential to cause damage to the infrastructures or even loss of human life. Although with similarities with mining, relatively unknown up to now are seismic events induced by tunneling. However with modern mechanized tunneling techniques, making possible to digging deeper and longer underground infrastructure, the risk is not negligible. As an example, the excavation of the 57km long Gotthard Base Tunnel has been associated more than hundred seismic events, with the largest one having magnitude of ML 2.4, damaging the tunnel infrastructures. For future scenario of deep geological storage of nuclear waste, tunneling will constitute the primary activity during site construction. Hence, it will be crucial to understand the risk associated with the underground construction operation that can reactivate seismogenic features nearby the future location of emplacement tunnels. Here we present numerical simulation aimed at understanding the potential for inducing seismicity during tunnel construction. The stress changes and their evolution during the excavation are evaluated with a finite element solver (FLAC3d). A strain-softening friction model is then used to simulate the occurrence of a sudden slip on a fault zone (if critical conditions for reactivation are reached). We also present a sensitivity analysis of the potential for inducing different seismic events by different tunnel sizes at varying distance from a nearby failure plane, with the final purpose of evaluating safety of a potential nuclear repository site on the short- and long-term.

  4. Monitoring Instrument Performance in Regional Broadband Seismic Network Using Ambient Seismic Noise (United States)

    Ye, F.; Lyu, S.; Lin, J.


    In the past ten years, the number of seismic stations has increased significantly, and regional seismic networks with advanced technology have been gradually developed all over the world. The resulting broadband data help to improve the seismological research. It is important to monitor the performance of broadband instruments in a new network in a long period of time to ensure the accuracy of seismic records. Here, we propose a method that uses ambient noise data in the period range 5-25 s to monitor instrument performance and check data quality in situ. The method is based on an analysis of amplitude and phase index parameters calculated from pairwise cross-correlations of three stations, which provides multiple references for reliable error estimates. Index parameters calculated daily during a two-year observation period are evaluated to identify stations with instrument response errors in near real time. During data processing, initial instrument responses are used in place of available instrument responses to simulate instrument response errors, which are then used to verify our results. We also examine feasibility of the tailing noise using data from stations selected from USArray in different locations and analyze the possible instrumental errors resulting in time-shifts used to verify the method. Additionally, we show an application that effects of instrument response errors that experience pole-zeros variations on monitoring temporal variations in crustal properties appear statistically significant velocity perturbation larger than the standard deviation. The results indicate that monitoring seismic instrument performance helps eliminate data pollution before analysis begins.

  5. Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Western Lake Ontario Region -relocation of the seismic events phase III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohajer, A.A.


    Earthquake hazard analysis in Canada relies mainly on recorded earthquake data. The ability to record earthquakes of a given magnitude has varied considerably over time as has the accuracy of location determinations. Recomputation of earthquake locations has been suggested as a possible means of improving the existing data base for better definition of seismic sources. In this study, the locations of more than 50 small to moderate magnitude earthquakes (M≤5), in the western Lake Ontario region, were examined. Available seismograph records in the Record Centre of the National Archives of Canada were examined for events that occurred prior to 1978. The events recorded after this date showed increasing accuracy in their location determinations due to initiation and improvements of the Eastern Canada Telemetry Network (ECTN). Data compiled from the study are based on the relocated and/or selected events with the minimum travel time residuals at the Canadian and American stations. Except for a few scattered events in the south-central part of the Lake Ontario region, microearthquakes (M<3.5) cluster along or at the intersection of prominent aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies, within the Toronto-Hamilton Seismic Zone. This is indicative of certain seismotectonic relationships in this region. The depth distribution or the better located events show that a range of 5 to 20 km is dominant and, therefore, they are not near-surface stress relief phenomena. However, details of the structural manifestation of inferred seismogenic features need further ground truthing, backed by long term seismic monitoring. (author) 66 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs

  6. Evaluation of the seismic hazard parameters for selected regions of the world: the maximum regional magnitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Tsapanos


    Full Text Available Parameters of seismic hazard are estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood method. The technique is based on a procedure which utilizes data of different quality, e.g., the ones where the uncertainty in the assessment of the magnitudes is great and those where the magnitudes are computed with great precision. In other words, the data were extracted from both historical (incomplete and recorded (complete files. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues each one assumed to be complete above a specified threshold magnitude. Uncertainty in the determination of magnitudes has also been taken into account. The method allow us to estimate the seismic hazard parameters which are the maximum regional magnitude, Mmax , the activity rate, lˆ, of the seismic events and the well known b-value, the slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. The parameter b, which is interrelated to b (b = bloge, is also obtained. All these parameters are of physical significance. The mean Return Periods, RP, of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M ³ m are also determined. The method is applied in some regions of the circum-Pacific belt, which includes various tectonic features, and where catastrophic earthquakes are known from the historical era. The seismic hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form q(Mmax , RP7.5 and a relative hazard scale (defined as an index K is defined for each seismic region. According to this, the investigated regions are classified into five groups of very low, low, intermediate, high and very high seismic hazard levels. This classification is useful for both theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity.

  7. Deep-rooted “thick skinned” model for the High Atlas Mountains (Morocco. Implications for the seismic Eurasia-Africa plate boundary region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guiraud, M.


    Full Text Available Previous crustal models of the High Atlas suppose the existence of a mid-crustal detachment where all the surface thrusts merged and below which the lower crust was continuous. However, both seismic refraction data and gravity modeling detected a jump in crustal thickness between the High Atlas and the northern plains. Here we show that this rapid and vertical jump in the depth of Moho discontinuity suggests that a thrust fault may penetrate the lower crust and offset the Moho (deep-rooted “thick skinned” model. The distribution of Neogene and Quaternary volcanisms along and at the northern part of the High Atlas lineament can be related to the beginning of a partial continental subduction of the West African plate to the north underneath Moroccan microplate. Allowing from the complex problem of the plate boundary in the western zone of the Mediterranean, we propose to interpret the South-Atlasic fault zone as the actual northwestern boundary of the stable part of the African plate rather than the Azores-Gibraltar fault currently used.Los modelos geodinámicos existentes sobre la estructura profunda del alto Atlas suponen la existencia de un despegue medio-cortical donde convergen los cabalgamientos superficiales y bajo el cual la corteza inferior es continua. Los datos de sísmica de refracción y gravimetría, sin embargo, indican la existencia de una discontinuidad en el grosor de la corteza (profundidad del Moho bajo el Alto Atlas. En este artículo ponemos de manifiesto que este salto rápido en la profundidad del Moho puede ser causado por un cabalgamiento que penetra la corteza inferior, desplazando la base de la misma ("deeprooted thick skinned model". La distribución del volcanismo Neógeno y Cuaternario a lo largo de y al norte de la alineación del Alto Atlas pueden estar relacionados con el comienzo de una subducción continental parcial de la placa Africana occidental hacia el norte, bajo la microplaca marroquí. La expresi

  8. Some characteristics of the seismicity of the Tyrrhenian Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available In the first p a r t of the paper the seismic strain release of the T y r r h e n i a n Sea Region (including Italy, as the function of time, is examined on the basis of t h e d a t a of the e a r t h q u a k e s t h a t took place f r om 1901.01.01 to 1970.12.31, between the northern l a t i t u d e s of 34° and 44° and between the eastern longitudes of 8° and 18.5°, respectively. All registered shocks with a R i c h t e r - m a g n i t u d e of 5.5 or over it were considered, i n d e p e n d e n t l y f r om t h e focal d e p t h . Three periods were recognized in the a c t i v i t y ; t h e lengths of which are not t h e same, however. I n the second p a r t the elastic strain release in accordance with the focal d e p t h of t h e same e a r t h q u a k e s is t r e a t e d briefly. It was found t h at t h e t o t a l strain-release had a maximum value in t h e depth between 0 and 74 kms and there was a minimum between the depth of 300 and 524 kins with an interval between 375 and 449 kms within which no earthquakes occurred at all. The general p a t t e r n of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of seismicity as t h e f u n c t i o n of hypocentral d e p t h reminds to the well-known picture, one can experience in other regions where i n t e r m e d i a t e and deep shocks occur. This s t a t e m e n t is consistent w i t h t h e idea, according to which t h e seismicity of t h e Tyrrhenian Sea Region can be discussed and explained in t h e light of t h e theory of new global tectonics. F i n a l l y , in the t h i r d p a r t of the study, the authors have s t a t e d t h at in some cases multiple events occurred b e n e a t h t h e Tyrrhenian Sea Region. Such multiple seismic events were detected in the case of other areas, such as the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec Region, the seismic belt of South America etc., — but, according to the knowledge of t h e authors, this is t h e first occasion when multiple seismic events are

  9. Seismic Regionalization of Michoacan, Mexico and Recurrence Periods for Earthquakes (United States)

    Magaña García, N.; Figueroa-Soto, Á.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; Zúñiga, R.


    Michoacán is one of the states with the highest occurrence of earthquakes in Mexico and it is a limit of convergence triggered by the subduction of Cocos plate over the North American plate, located in the zone of the Pacific Ocean of our country, in addition to the existence of active faults inside of the state like the Morelia-Acambay Fault System (MAFS).It is important to make a combination of seismic, paleosismological and geological studies to have good planning and development of urban complexes to mitigate disasters if destructive earthquakes appear. With statistical seismology it is possible to characterize the degree of seismic activity as well as to estimate the recurrence periods for earthquakes. For this work, seismicity catalog of Michoacán was compiled and homogenized in time and magnitude. This information was obtained from world and national agencies (SSN, CMT, etc), some data published by Mendoza and Martínez-López (2016) and starting from the seismic catalog homogenized by F. R. Zúñiga (Personal communication). From the analysis of the different focal mechanisms reported in the literature and geological studies, the seismic regionalization of the state of Michoacán complemented the one presented by Vázquez-Rosas (2012) and the recurrence periods for earthquakes within the four different seismotectonic regions. In addition, stable periods were determined for the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter (1944) using the Maximum Curvature and EMR (Entire Magnitude Range Method, 2005) techniques, which allowed us to determine recurrence periods: years for earthquakes upper to 7.5 for the subduction zone (A zone) with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique for the same zone; years for earthquakes upper to 5 for B1 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; years for earthquakes upper to 7.0 for B2 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; and the last one, the Morelia-Acambay Fault Sistem zone (C zone) years for

  10. Seismic and volcanic activity during 2014 in the region involved by TOMO-ETNA seismic active experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graziella Barberi


    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview of the seismic and volcanic activity occurred during 2014 in the region involved by the TOMO-ETNA seismic active experiment (Mt. Etna, Aeolian Islands and Peloritani-Messina Strait areas. To better characterize the seismicity over the year, three-dimensional hypocenter locations and focal mechanism solutions of a dataset of 678 selected small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes (0.5 ≤ ML ≤ 4.3 were analyzed. In the framework of the TOMO-ETNA experiment, a temporary seismic network was installed on-land from June to November 2014, both to acquire seismic signals produced by shots and to record the local seismicity. Data collected by the temporary network were used to integrate those deriving from the permanent seismic network operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV-Osservatorio Etneo (Etna Observatory, thus obtaining a numerically more robust dataset. In agreement with previous analysis and studies, the distribution of the hypocentral locations is well representative of the seismicity that typically characterizes this area. The selected well-constrained 42 fault plane solutions evidence two domains characterized by different motions and style of deformation. In particular, an extensional domain in the northeastern Sicily and a strike-slip regime in the northernmost part of the studied region have been observed.

  11. Influence of rifting episodes on seismic and volcanic activity in the southern Red Sea region (United States)

    Viltres, Renier; Ruch, Joël; Doubre, Cécile; Reilinger, Rob; Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan; Jónsson, Sigurjón


    Rifting episodes cause large changes to the state of stress in the surrounding crust, both instantaneously (elastic stress transfer) and in the years following the episodes (viscoelastic stress transfer), and can significantly influence occurrence of future earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Here we report on a new project that aims at studying the stress impact of rifting episodes and focuses on the southern Red Sea, Afar and Gulf of Aden region, which has seen a significant increase in rifting activity during the past decade. The Afar rift system experienced a major rifting episode (Dabbahu segment) in 2005-2010 and the southern Red Sea also appears to have had one, indicated by three volcanic eruptions in 2007, 2011-12, and 2013 (the first in the area in over a century), accompanied by several seismic swarms. In addition, Gulf of Aden had an exceptionally strong seismic swarm activity starting in late 2010 that was associated with intrusion of magma in a separate rifting episode. To explore the influence of these recent rifting episodes in the region we will use new geodetic observations, seismicity analysis and modeling. We have analyzed new GPS data collected in Eritrea, in Afar, and in southern Saudi Arabia. Comparisons with older surveys has not only resulted in better GPS velocities for the observed sites, but also revealed changes to velocities at some sites influenced by the rifting activity. We use the results along with seismic data to better constrain the timing, magnitude and duration of the rifting activity in the region. We will then apply elastic and visco-elastic stress transfer modeling to assess the associated stress changes, in particular at locations where volcanic eruptions or intrusions have occurred or where significant seismicity has been detected. The project should provide new information about the impact rifting events and episodes can have on regional volcanic and earthquake activity and how rifting episodes may influence one another.


    Bielik, M.; Alasonati Tašárová, Z.; Zeyen, H. J.; Afonso, J.; Goetze, H.; Dérerová, J.


    Two different methods for the 3-D interpretation of the gravity field have been applied to the study of the structure and tectonics of the Carpathian-Pannonian lithosphere. The first (second) method provided a set of the different stripped gravity maps (the new lithosphere thickness map). The contribution presents the interpretation of the gravity field, which takes into account the CELEBRATION2000 seismic as well as new geophysical results. The sediment stripped gravity map is characterized by gravity minima in the Eastern Alps and Western Carpathians, and gravity maxima in the Pannonian Back-arc Basin system and the European platform. The gravity low in the Eastern Alps is produced by the thick crust (more than 45 km). The Western Carpathian gravity minimum is a result of the interference of two main gravitational effects. The first one comes from the low-density sediments of the Outer Western Carpathians and Carpathian Foredeep. The second one is due to the thick low-density upper and middle crust, reaching up to 25 km. In the Pannonian Back-arc Basin system can be observed the regional gravity high which is a result of the gravity effect of the anomalously shallow Moho. The most dominant feature of the complete 3-D stripped gravity map (crustal gravity effect map) is the abrupt change of the gravity field along the Klippen Belt zone. While the European platform is characterized by positive anomalies, the Western Carpathian orogen and the Pannonian Back-arc Basin system by relatively long-wavelength gravity low (several hundred kilometers). The lowest values are associated with the thick low-density upper and middle crust of the Inner Western Carpathians. That is why we suggest that the European Platform consists of the significantly denser crust with respect to the less dense crust of the microplates ALCAPA and Tisza-Dacia. The contrast in the gravity fields over the European platform and microplates ALCAPA and Tisza-Dacia reflect also their different crustal

  13. Regional scale tomography in central Mexico. Preliminary results from the correlation of seismic noise (United States)

    Chávez-García, F.; Quintanar, L.


    In addition to local site effects, ground motion from coastal earthquakes on rock sites in central Mexico is amplified in a regional scale, relative to ground motion observed along a direction parallel to the coast. This regional amplification attains a factor of 10 at frequencies that are critical in seismic risk analyses (from 0.2 to at least 2 Hz). This amplification has been related to the irregular crustal structure associated with the presence of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (oblique to the trench along the subduction zone). However, this has not yet been verified. The available models are not well constrained and there is a significant lack of data regarding the crustal structure in this region. Recent publications have shown that the Green's function between two seismic stations may be estimated from the cross-correlation of seismic noise. Most papers have shown that surface wave modes emerge in those correlation functions. The larger the distance between stations, the longer the records of seismic noise that are needed to obtain a useful result. In this paper, we use seismic noise recorded by three different arrays to estimate Rayleigh wave dispersion between stations. two arrays were temporal and one, recently installed, is permanent. The first array consisted of only four stations. It operated continuously for three months in 1997. The second temporary array operated a line of 100 seismic recorders installed perpendicularly to the subduction zone in Mexico, the MASE (Middle American Seismic Experiment) array. From this large array we use data from 18 stations in central Mexico. Finally, we use data from the permanent Mexico basin seismic array, recently installed. We use week- and month-long noise records to compute cross-correlation between vertical components for all possible station pairs. The results show clearly the emergence of clear Rayleigh wave pulses. We use the multiple filter technique to determine group velocities in the period band 4 to 10 s

  14. Evaluation of seismic hazard in Marmara region based on the new datasets developed in the EU-MARSITE Project (United States)

    Sesetyan, Karin; Akinci, Aybige; Betül Demircioglu, Mine


    Several studies with various degrees of sophistication have been conducted for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in the Marmara Region (e.g. Atakan et al., 2002; Erdik et al., 2004; Kalkan et al., 2008; Gülerce and Ocak, 2013),. The common point of these studies was that they have all addressed the hazard in the region in terms of both time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. This tendency was governed by the following considerations: 1) the region has experienced a considerable number of large magnitude events in the history, which have also shown some periodicity; 2) the existing seismic gap and the post-1999 earthquake stress transfer at the western portion of the 1000km-long NAFZ indicates a high probability of having a M>7 event in the near future close to the city of Istanbul; 3)the seismic history of the region was well documented and studied and there have been, especially in the aftermath of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce events, several geological investigations both on-shore and off-shore aiming to obtain a regional fault model as complete as possible, which were reflected in the fault segmentation models of the PSHA studies. Task 5.5. of the MARSITE Project aimed at a reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard of the Marmara region in the light of the new datasets compiled in the project. The improvement of the knowledge on the seismotectonic regime of the Marmara region paved the path for the development of alternative source models for the improvement of the existing probabilistic seismic hazard maps. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different work packages of the project, in terms of seismicity, fault segmentation and slip rate data are utilized. A revised fault segementation model and associated Poisson and renewal recurrence models as well as recently emerged global and regional ground motion prediction equations are used to assessed the seismic

  15. Study of Seismic Clusters at Bahía de Banderas Region, Mexico (United States)

    Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Rutz-Lopez, M.; Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Trejo-Gomez, E.


    Given that the coast in the states of Jalisco and south of the state of Nayarit is located within a region of high seismic potential and also because population is increasing, perhaps motivated by the development of tourism, the Civil Defense authorities of Jalisco and the Centro de Sismología y Volcanología de Occidente-SisVOc of Universidad de Guadalajara started in the year 2000 a joint project to study the seismic risk of the region, including the seismic monitoring of Colima volcano (located between the states of Jalisco and Colima). This work focuses on the study of seismicity in the area of Bahía de Banderas and northern coast of Jalisco. To this end, we perform an analysis of available seismograms to characterize active structures, their relationship to surface morphology, and possible reach of these structures into the shallow parts of the bay. The data used in this work are waveforms recorded during the year 2003 during which the seismograph network spanned the region of study. Our method is based on the identification of seismic clusters or families using cross-correlation of waveforms, earthquake relocation and modeling of fault planes. From an initial data set of 404 earthquakes located during 2003, 96 earthquakes could be related to 17 potentially active continental structures. A modeling of fault planes was possible for 11 of these structures. Subgroups of 7 structures are aligned parallel to the Middle America Trench, a possible consequence of oblique subduction. The magnitudes of earthquakes grouped into families is less than 3.6 (Ml), corresponding to fault dimensions of hundreds of meters.

  16. Detection of rainfall-induced landslides on regional seismic networks (United States)

    Manconi, Andrea; Coviello, Velio; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Picozzi, Matteo


    Seismic techniques are increasingly adopted to detect signals induced by mass movements and to quantitatively evaluate geo-hydrological hazards at different spatial and temporal scales. By analyzing landslide-induced seismicity, it is possible obtaining significant information on the source of the mass wasting, as well as on its dynamics. However, currently only few studies have performed a systematic back analysis on comprehensive catalogues of events to evaluate the performance of proposed algorithms. In this work, we analyze a catalogue of 1058 landslides induced by rainfall in Italy. Among these phenomena, there are 234 rock falls, 55 debris flows, 54 mud flows, and 715 unspecified shallow landslides. This is a subset of a larger catalogue collected by the Italian research institute for geo-hydrological protection (CNR IRPI) during the period 2000-2014 (Brunetti et al., 2015). For each record, the following information are available: the type of landslide; the geographical location of the landslide (coordinates, site, municipality, province, and 3 classes of geographic accuracy); the temporal information on the landslide occurrence (day, month, year, time, date, and 3 classes of temporal accuracy); the rainfall conditions (rainfall duration and cumulated event rainfall) that have resulted in the landslide. We consider here only rainfall-induced landslides for which exact date and time were known from chronicle information. The analysis of coeval seismic data acquired by regional seismic networks show clear signals in at least 3 stations for 64 events (6% of the total dataset). Among them, 20 are associated to local earthquakes and 2 to teleseisms; 10 are anomalous signals characterized by irregular and impulsive waveforms in both time and frequency domains; 33 signals are likely associated to the landslide occurrence, as they have a cigar-shaped waveform characterized by emerging onsets, duration of several tens of seconds, and low frequencies (1-10 Hz). For

  17. Eliminating time dispersion from seismic wave modeling (United States)

    Koene, Erik F. M.; Robertsson, Johan O. A.; Broggini, Filippo; Andersson, Fredrik


    We derive an expression for the error introduced by the second-order accurate temporal finite-difference (FD) operator, as present in the FD, pseudospectral and spectral element methods for seismic wave modeling applied to time-invariant media. The `time-dispersion' error speeds up the signal as a function of frequency and time step only. Time dispersion is thus independent of the propagation path, medium or spatial modeling error. We derive two transforms to either add or remove time dispersion from synthetic seismograms after a simulation. The transforms are compared to previous related work and demonstrated on wave modeling in acoustic as well as elastic media. In addition, an application to imaging is shown. The transforms enable accurate computation of synthetic seismograms at reduced cost, benefitting modeling applications in both exploration and global seismology.

  18. Utah's Regional/Urban ANSS Seismic Network---Strategies and Tools for Quality Performance (United States)

    Burlacu, R.; Arabasz, W. J.; Pankow, K. L.; Pechmann, J. C.; Drobeck, D. L.; Moeinvaziri, A.; Roberson, P. M.; Rusho, J. A.


    The University of Utah's regional/urban seismic network (224 stations recorded: 39 broadband, 87 strong-motion, 98 short-period) has become a model for locally implementing the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) because of successes in integrating weak- and strong-motion recording and in developing an effective real-time earthquake information system. Early achievements included implementing ShakeMap, ShakeCast, point-to- multipoint digital telemetry, and an Earthworm Oracle database, as well as in-situ calibration of all broadband and strong-motion stations and submission of all data and metadata into the IRIS DMC. Regarding quality performance, our experience as a medium-size regional network affirms the fundamental importance of basics such as the following: for data acquisition, deliberate attention to high-quality field installations, signal quality, and computer operations; for operational efficiency, a consistent focus on professional project management and human resources; and for customer service, healthy partnerships---including constant interactions with emergency managers, engineers, public policy-makers, and other stakeholders as part of an effective state earthquake program. (Operational cost efficiencies almost invariably involve trade-offs between personnel costs and the quality of hardware and software.) Software tools that we currently rely on for quality performance include those developed by UUSS (e.g., SAC and shell scripts for estimating local magnitudes) and software developed by other organizations such as: USGS (Earthworm), University of Washington (interactive analysis software), ISTI (SeisNetWatch), and IRIS (PDCC, BUD tools). Although there are many pieces, there is little integration. One of the main challenges we face is the availability of a complete and coherent set of tools for automatic and post-processing to assist in achieving the goals/requirements set forth by ANSS. Taking our own network---and ANSS---to the next level

  19. Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, M.D.


    Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

  20. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.


    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  1. Revising the historical seismicity of the region of Van (United States)

    Albini, P.; Demircioglu, M. B.; Locati, M.; Rovida, A.; Sesetyan, K.; Stucchi, M.; Viganò, D.


    The Mw7.2 earthquake of October 23, 2011 struck an area with a long historical record and a long earthquake history. However, only three earthquakes of similar Mw are known in the instrumental period: one in 1976 in the Çaldiran area, some 50 km to the NE, one in 1930 in the Salmas area (Iran) and, possibly, one in 1903, north of Lake Van. In the past, only three other events with Mw ≥ 7.0 are included in the catalogues: the 1275 earthquake, located on the northern bank of the lake Van, the 1696 one, in the Çaldiran area, and the 1840 one, in the Dogubayazit area. This paper is devoted to review the catalogue of eastern Turkey, recently compiled as a common effort of the EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle-East region) and SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) projects, merging the main current earthquake catalogues, based on traditional material. We analyse the information supplied by recently published studies on the historical seismology of the area, whose content was so far not used for the compilation of the catalogues. We interpret it in macroseismic terms, assessing preliminary damage classes (HD = heavy damage; D = damage; SD = slight damage; SF = strongly felt; F = felt), adding our interpretation. When possible, we assess the new epicentres and offer preliminary assessments of magnitude and uncertainty estimates. The results show that: i) a few events are probably fake; ii) a few are mislocated iii) some show overestimated Mw; iv) a few could be underestimated. One of the best described events turns out to be the one of 1646 (formerly 1648), for which the information deals with several places, although many of them are very small. The suggested location is similar to the one of the recent 9 November Mw 5.7 event, while Mw can range up to 7.0. On the other hand, no prominent candidate is available as a twin of the 23 October 2011 event, although many events could fit, should more information appear.

  2. A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation (United States)

    Zúñiga, F. Ramón; Suárez, Gerardo; Figueroa-Soto, Ángel; Mendoza, Avith


    The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.

  3. Crustal seismicity and the earthquake catalog maximum moment magnitudes (Mcmax) in stable continental regions (SCRs): correlation with the seismic velocity of the lithosphere (United States)

    Mooney, Walter D.; Ritsema, Jeroen; Hwang, Yong Keun


    A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The geographic distribution of thick lithospheric roots is inferred from the global seismic model S40RTS that displays shear-velocity perturbations (δVS) relative to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). We compare δVS at a depth of 175 km with the locations and moment magnitudes (Mw) of intraplate earthquakes in the crust (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). Many intraplate earthquakes concentrate around the pronounced lateral gradients in lithospheric thickness that surround the cratons and few earthquakes occur within cratonic interiors. Globally, 27% of stable continental lithosphere is underlain by δVS≥3.0%, yet only 6.5% of crustal earthquakes with Mw>4.5 occur above these regions with thick lithosphere. No earthquakes in our catalog with Mw>6 have occurred above mantle lithosphere with δVS>3.5%, although such lithosphere comprises 19% of stable continental regions. Thus, for cratonic interiors with seismically determined thick lithosphere (1) there is a significant decrease in the number of crustal earthquakes, and (2) the maximum moment magnitude found in the earthquake catalog is Mcmax=6.0. We attribute these observations to higher lithospheric strength beneath cratonic interiors due to lower temperatures and dehydration in both the lower crust and the highly depleted lithospheric root.

  4. Crustal seismicity and the earthquake catalog maximum moment magnitude (Mcmax) in stable continental regions (SCRs): Correlation with the seismic velocity of the lithosphere (United States)

    Mooney, Walter D.; Ritsema, Jeroen; Hwang, Yong Keun


    A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The geographic distribution of thick lithospheric roots is inferred from the global seismic model S40RTS that displays shear-velocity perturbations (δVS) relative to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). We compare δVS at a depth of 175 km with the locations and moment magnitudes (Mw) of intraplate earthquakes in the crust (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). Many intraplate earthquakes concentrate around the pronounced lateral gradients in lithospheric thickness that surround the cratons and few earthquakes occur within cratonic interiors. Globally, 27% of stable continental lithosphere is underlain by δVS≥3.0%, yet only 6.5% of crustal earthquakes with Mw>4.5 occur above these regions with thick lithosphere. No earthquakes in our catalog with Mw>6 have occurred above mantle lithosphere with δVS>3.5%, although such lithosphere comprises 19% of stable continental regions. Thus, for cratonic interiors with seismically determined thick lithosphere (1) there is a significant decrease in the number of crustal earthquakes, and (2) the maximum moment magnitude found in the earthquake catalog is Mcmax=6.0. We attribute these observations to higher lithospheric strength beneath cratonic interiors due to lower temperatures and dehydration in both the lower crust and the highly depleted lithospheric root.

  5. Neural Models: An Option to Estimate Seismic Parameters of Accelerograms (United States)

    Alcántara, L.; García, S.; Ovando-Shelley, E.; Macías, M. A.


    Seismic instrumentation for recording strong earthquakes, in Mexico, goes back to the 60´s due the activities carried out by the Institute of Engineering at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. However, it was after the big earthquake of September 19, 1985 (M=8.1) when the project of seismic instrumentation assumes a great importance. Currently, strong ground motion networks have been installed for monitoring seismic activity mainly along the Mexican subduction zone and in Mexico City. Nevertheless, there are other major regions and cities that can be affected by strong earthquakes and have not yet begun their seismic instrumentation program or this is still in development.Because of described situation some relevant earthquakes (e.g. Huajuapan de León Oct 24, 1980 M=7.1, Tehuacán Jun 15, 1999 M=7 and Puerto Escondido Sep 30, 1999 M= 7.5) have not been registered properly in some cities, like Puebla and Oaxaca, and that were damaged during those earthquakes. Fortunately, the good maintenance work carried out in the seismic network has permitted the recording of an important number of small events in those cities. So in this research we present a methodology based on the use of neural networks to estimate significant duration and in some cases the response spectra for those seismic events. The neural model developed predicts significant duration in terms of magnitude, epicenter distance, focal depth and soil characterization. Additionally, for response spectra we used a vector of spectral accelerations. For training the model we selected a set of accelerogram records obtained from the small events recorded in the strong motion instruments installed in the cities of Puebla and Oaxaca. The final results show that neural networks as a soft computing tool that use a multi-layer feed-forward architecture provide good estimations of the target parameters and they also have a good predictive capacity to estimate strong ground motion duration and response spectra.

  6. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.


    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  7. Seismic scatterer distribution beneath the Wellington region, southernmost part of New Zealand's North Island (United States)

    Kurashimo, E.; Sato, H.; Iidaka, T.; Ishiyama, T.; Iwasaki, T.; Henrys, S. A.; Sutherland, R.; Stern, T. A.; Savage, M. K.; Okaya, D. A.


    A detailed crustal and upper mantle structure of the subducting oceanic lithosphere and the overlying continental crust is inevitably important to constrain the physical process of earthquake occurrence. Structural images of many subduction zones have been obtained: for example, the Kanto region, central Japan (e.g., Sato et al., 2005). In the Kanto region, the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area. Similar tectonic situation is found in the southernmost North Island, New Zealand, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Australian plate. It is also noted that capital cities are situated in both the regions. In May of 2011, the second phase of the Seismic Array Hikurangi Experiment (SAHKE) was conducted to obtain the detailed subduction structure beneath the southern North Island. The transect line ran from the Wairarapa coast to Kapiti coast over an 80 km profile. Twelve explosives were fired as controlled seismic source on the survey line between 6-10 km apart. The energy was recorded on 878 seismic stations (294 three-component and 584 vertical sensors) deployed at 100 m spacing and 50 m between Kaitoke and Featherston. Data collected on the survey line have high signal-to-noise ratio, from which we can easily recognize, not only the first arrival phases, but also latter phases. The seismic coda waves are generally interpreted as scattered waves from inhomogeneities in the Earth [e.g., Aki, 1969]. Array recordings of seismic events are useful to locate scatterers. In this study, semblance analysis [Neidell and Tarner, 1971] is applied to our waveform data for imaging seismic scatterer distribution, assuming an isotropic scattering model. To locate scatterers, we established 3-D imaginary grid points beneath the survey area. The velocity structure beneath the survey area was derived by refraction tomography method [Zelt and Barton, 1998], which was used to calculate travel times between a source/receiver to a grid point. If a

  8. Spatial-temporal connection peculiarities of seismicity with area relief for Altai-Sayan mountain region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emanov, A.F.; Emanov, A.A.; Filina, A.G.; Leskova, E.V.; Yarygina, M.A.; Rudakov, A.D.


    Altai-Sayan mountain region seismicity was analyzed together with area relief and active faults. It was found out that most tectonic active structures showed seismicity for a year, their seismicity was stable from year to year. Largest earthquakes of this region are connected with a number of structures, which are active in relation with earthquakes of low energies. Background seismicity and activation are picked out in seismic mode. Background seismicity at first sight looks chaotic, but eventually it is normalized in accordance with block structure of Altai-Sayan mountain region and it basically concentrates in mountain framing of hollows. Activation is tightly related to largest earthquakes and for a major part it occurs as aftershock process. (author)

  9. A Full-Wave Seismic Tomography for the Crustal Structure in the Metropolitan Beijing Region (United States)

    Sun, A.; Zhao, L.; Chen, Q.


    The greater Beijing metropolitan region is located in an old cratonic block in northeast China with complex geology and several large historic earthquakes, such as the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake (~M8.0) in 1679, the Xingtai earthquake (M7.2) in 1966, and the Tangshan earthquake (M7.8) in 1976. To enhance our understanding of the crustal structure and the seismotectonics under this region, we conduct a full-wave three-dimensional (3D) tomographic study of this region using the waveforms recorded by the newly established Beijing metropolitan digital seismic network. Since the Beijing network was put into operation in October 2001, there have been 89 local earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 and above. From these, we selected 23 events of magnitude 3.2 and above and obtained their waveform records at 50 stations within our area of interest. The types of instruments at these stations include broadband, short-period and very broadband. First-motion focal mechanisms were determined for these events. We used a regional 3D model obtained by seismic reflection surveys as the reference model and calculated the synthetic seismograms by the finite-difference method. In this first attempt at finite- frequency tomography for the Beijing region, we focus on the variation of the P-wave speed using the first- arriving P waves. We measure the frequency-dependent traveltime anomalies of the P waves by the cross- correlation between observed and synthetic P waveforms within several discrete frequency bands between 20-sec and 5-sec periods. The sensitivity or Frechet kernels of these measurements for the perturbations in P-wave speed were computed by the same finite-difference method. We will present the preliminary result in our full-wave seismic tomography for the Beijing region.

  10. A Simple Model for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Induced Seismicity Associated With Deep Geothermal Systems (United States)

    Schlittenhardt, Joerg; Spies, Thomas; Kopera, Juergen; Morales Aviles, Wilhelm


    In the research project MAGS (Microseismic activity of geothermal systems) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Environment (BMU) a simple model was developed to determine seismic hazard as the probability of the exceedance of ground motion of a certain size. Such estimates of the annual frequency of exceedance of prescriptive limits of e.g. seismic intensities or ground motions are needed for the planning and licensing, but likewise for the development and operation of deep geothermal systems. For the development of the proposed model well established probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods for the estimation of the hazard for the case of natural seismicity were adapted to the case of induced seismicity. Important differences between induced and natural seismicity had to be considered. These include significantly smaller magnitudes, depths and source to site distances of the seismic events and, hence, different ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) that had to be incorporated to account for the seismic amplitude attenuation with distance as well as differences in the stationarity of the underlying tectonic and induced processes. Appropriate GMPE's in terms of PGV (peak ground velocity) were tested and selected from the literature. The proposed model and its application to the case of induced seismicity observed during the circulation period (operation phase of the plant) at geothermal sites in Germany will be presented. Using GMPE's for PGV has the advantage to estimate hazard in terms of velocities of ground motion, which can be linked to engineering regulations (e.g. German DIN 4150) which give prescriptive standards for the effects of vibrations on buildings and people. It is thus possible to specify the probability of exceedance of such prescriptive standard values and to decide whether they can be accepted or not. On the other hand hazard curves for induced and natural seismicity can be compared to study the impact at a site. Preliminary

  11. Estimates of seismic activity in the Cerberus Fossae region of Mars


    Taylor, J.; Teanby, N. A.; Wookey, J.


    The 2016 NASA InSight lander is the first planetary mission designed to study the deep interior of Mars. InSight's Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) package will quantify global and regional seismic activity and determine parameters like core properties, mantle composition, and Martian lithospheric thickness. An improved understanding of the location, magnitude, and frequency of potential seismic sources is essential for optimization of instrument design, sampling strategy, and...

  12. Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A, Singh S K, Pérez-Campos X, Suresh G, Koketsu K,. Masuda T, Domen K and Ito T 2016 CIGN, A strong- motion seismic network in Central Indo-Gangetic Plains, foothills of Himalayas: First results; Seismol. Res. Lett. 87(1) 37–46. Cornell C A 1968 Engineering seismic risk analysis; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58 1583–1606.

  13. Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... with increasing seismicity, demands seismic microzonation of cities near the Himalayan belt and the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB). Therefore, determination of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectra are important for designing buildings, infrastructure projects as well as disaster planning and management.

  14. On the Seismic Design of Structures with Tilting Located within a Seismic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Valenzuela-Beltrán


    Full Text Available A reliability-based criterion to estimate strength amplification factors for buildings with asymmetric yielding located within a seismic region presenting different soil conditions is proposed and applied. The approach involves the calculation of the mean annual rate of exceedance of structural demands of systems with different levels of asymmetric yielding. Two simplified mathematical expressions are developed considering different soil conditions of the valley of Mexico. The mathematical expressions depend on the ductility of the structural systems, their level of asymmetric yielding, their fundamental vibration period and the dominant period of the soil. In addition, the proposed expressions are compared with that recommended by the current Mexico City Building Code (MCBC. Since the expressions are developed with the help of simplified structural systems, the validity of such expressions is corroborated by comparing the expected ductility demand of multi-degree of freedom (MDOF structural systems with respect to that of their equivalent simplified systems. Both structural representations are associated with a given annual rate of exceedance value of an engineering demand parameter. The expressions proposed in this study will be incorporated in the new version of the MCBC.

  15. In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region...part II (United States)

    Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.


    Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for determining the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. Currently a program is in progress to measure seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay region at an estimated 150 sites. At each site seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill hole cuttings, undisturbed samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the site. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. The broad data base available in the San Francisco Bay region suggests using the area as a pilot area for the development of general techniques applicable to other areas.

  16. Modeling the impact of melt on seismic properties during mountain building (United States)

    Lee, Amicia L.; Walker, Andrew M.; Lloyd, Geoffrey E.; Torvela, Taija


    Initiation of partial melting in the mid/lower crust causes a decrease in P wave and S wave velocities; recent studies imply that the relationship between these velocities and melt is not simple. We have developed a modeling approach to assess the combined impact of various melt and solid phase properties on seismic velocities and anisotropy. The modeling is based on crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) data measured from migmatite samples, allowing quantification of the variation of seismic velocities with varying melt volumes, shapes, orientations, and matrix anisotropy. The results show nonlinear behavior of seismic properties as a result of the interaction of all of these physical properties, which in turn depend on lithology, stress regime, strain rate, preexisting rock fabrics, and pressure-temperature conditions. This nonlinear behavior is evident when applied to a suite of samples from a traverse across a migmatitic shear zone in the Seiland Igneous Province, Northern Norway. Critically, changes in solid phase composition and CPO, and melt shape and orientation with respect to the wave propagation direction can result in huge variations in the same seismic property even if the melt fraction remains the same. A comparison with surface wave interpretations from tectonically active regions highlights the issues in current models used to predict melt percentages or partially molten regions. Interpretation of seismic data to infer melt percentages or extent of melting should, therefore, always be underpinned by robust modeling of the underlying geological parameters combined with examination of multiple seismic properties in order to reduce uncertainty of the interpretation.

  17. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gülerce


    Full Text Available This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  18. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul (United States)

    Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin


    This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  19. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.


    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  20. The 11 May 2011 Lorca earthquake and the seismicity of the region; El terremoto de Lorca de 11 de mayo de 2011 y la sismicidad de la region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez Solares, J. M.; Cantavella Nadal, J. V.; Canas Rodriguez, L.; Valero Zornosa, J. F.


    Lorca 2011 seismic series is described presenting its location parameters and the seismic moment tensor of its main events. We analyse its features by means of the whole seismic sequence temporal and spatial distribution, and we compare it with previous seismic series in the same region. Macro seismic data and PGA values gathered in this area are summarized in this paper. In addition, after a thorough revision of the regional seismicity for both historic and instrumental events, we make some modifications in the seismic catalogue. (Author) 32 refs.

  1. Probabilistic modeling of caprock leakage from seismic reflection data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Bergjofd-Kitterød, Ingjerd

    We illustrate a methodology which helps to perform a leakage risk analysis for a CO2 reservoir based on a consistent, probabilistic approach to geophysical and geostatistical inversion. Generally, risk assessments of storage complexes are based on geological models and simulations of CO2 movement...... within the storage complexes. The geological models are built on top of geophysical data such as seismic surveys, geological information and well logs from the reservoir or nearby regions. The risk assessment of CO2 storage requires a careful analysis which accounts for all sources of uncertainty....... However, at present, no well-defined and consistent method for mapping the true uncertainty related to the geophysical data and how that uncertainty affects the overall risk assessment for the potential storage site is available. To properly quantify the uncertainties and to avoid unrealistic...

  2. Technical Seismicity as Natural Extreme in Karviná Region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaláb, Zdeněk; Kořínek, R.; Hrubešová, E.


    Roč. 4, 2a (2009), s. 87-94 ISSN 1896-3145. [Ochrona środowiska w górnictwie podziemnym, odkrywkowym i otworowym. Bochnia, 20.05.2009-22.05.2009] Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA103/09/2007 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : mining induced seismicity * seismic loading Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  3. Theoretical models for Mars and their seismic properties (United States)

    Okal, E. A.; Anderson, D. L.


    Theoretical seismic properties of the planet Mars are investigated on the basis of the various models which have been proposed for the internal composition of the planet. The latest interpretation of gravity-field data, assuming a lower value of the moment of inertia, would require a less dense mantle and a larger core than previous models. If Mars is chondritic in composition, the most reasonable models are an incompletely differentiated H-chondrite or a mixture of H-chondrites and carbonaceous chondrites. Seismic profiles, travel times, and free oscillation periods are computed for various models, with the aim of establishing which seismic data is crucial for deciding among the alternatives. A detailed discussion is given of the seismic properties which could - in principle - help answer the questions of whether Mars' core is liquid or solid and whether Mars has a partially molten asthenosphere in its upper mantle.

  4. Seismically integrated geologic modelling: Guntong Field, Malay Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvert, Craig S.; Bhuyan, K.; Sterling, J. Helwick; Hill, Rob E.; Hubbard, R. Scott; Khare, Vijay; Wahrmund, Leslie A.; Wang, Gann-Shyong


    This presentation relates to a research project on offshore seismically reservoir modelling. The goal of the project was to develop and test a process for interpreting reservoir properties from 3-D seismic data and for integrating these data into the building of 3-D geologic models that would be suitable for use in flow simulation studies. The project produced a 3-D geologic model for three reservoir intervals and three predominantly non-reservoir intervals. Each reservoir interval was subdivided into faces that were determined by integrating core, well log, and seismic interpretations. predictions of porosity and lithology used in building the geologic model were made using seismic attributes calculated from acoustic impedance data. 8 figs.

  5. Hydro-mechanical modelling of induced seismicity during the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland (United States)

    Zbinden, Dominik; Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Kraft, Toni; Diehl, Tobias; Wiemer, Stefan


    The St. Gallen deep geothermal project in 2013 was the second geothermal project in Switzerland with the objective of power production after the Enhanced Geothermal System in Basel in 2006. In St. Gallen, the seismic risk was expected to be smaller than in Basel, since the hydrothermal resource was an aquifer at a depth of about 4 km, not expected to require permeability enhancement and associated hydroshearing of the rock. However, after an injectivity test and two acid stimulations, unexpected gas release from an unidentified source forced the operators to inject drilling mud into the well to fight the gas kick. Subsequently, several seismic events were induced, the largest one having a local magnitude of 3.5, which was distinctly felt by the nearby living population. Even though the induced seismicity could not be handled properly, the community still strongly supported the geothermal project. The project was however halted because the target formation was not as permeable as required to deliver sufficient power. Still, controlling induced seismicity during deep geothermal projects is a key factor to successfully operate future geothermal projects. Hence, it is crucial to understand the physical relations of fluid injection, pressure and stress response at reservoir depth as well as associated induced seismicity. To date, these processes are yet not fully understood. In this study, we aim at developing a hydro-mechanical model reproducing the main features of the induced seismic sequence at the St. Gallen geothermal site. Here, we present the conceptual model and preliminary results accounting for hydraulic and mechanical parameters from the geothermal well, geological information from a seismic survey conducted in the St. Gallen region, and actual fluid injection rates from the injectivity tests. In a future step, we are going to use this model to simulate the physical interaction of injected fluid, gas release, hydraulic response of the rock, and induced

  6. A Comparison of the Crustal Deformation Predicted by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to Seismicity in the Baffin Region of Northern Canada (United States)

    James, T. S.; Schamehorn, T.; Bent, A. L.; Allen, T. I.; Mulder, T.; Simon, K.


    The horizontal crustal strain-rates induced by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in northern Canada and western Greenland region are compared to the spatial pattern of seismicity. For the comparison, an updated seismicity catalogue was created from the 2010 version of the NRCan Seismic Hazard Earthquake Epicentre File (SHEEF2010) catalogue and the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN) catalogue of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Crustal motion rates were computed with the Innu/Laur16 ice-sheet history and the VM5a viscosity profile (Simon et al., 2015; 2016). This GIA model optimizes the fit to relative sea-level and vertical crustal motion measurements around Hudson Bay and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). A region in Baffin Bay with historically high seismicity, including the 1933 M 7.4 and the 1934 and 1945 M 6.5 earthquakes, features high predicted GIA strain-rates. Elsewhere, agreement is not strong, with zones of seismicity occurring where predicted horizontal crustal strain-rates are small and large crustal strain-rates predicted where earthquake occurrence is muted. For example, large compressional crustal strain-rates are predicted beneath seismically quiescent portions of the Greenland ice sheet. Similarly, large predicted extensional strain-rates occur around southern Hudson Bay and the Foxe Basin, which are also regions of relative seismic quiescence. Additional factors to be considered include the orientation of the background stress field, relative to the predicted stress changes, and potential pre-existing zones of lithospheric weakness.

  7. Methods of statistical processing of the results of regional seismic observations in the Upper Silesian basin (Poland)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomecka-Suchon, S.


    A statistical model of seismic activity of a basin, produced on the basis of analysis of parameters of seismic points, recorded by seismic stations of a regional network of the Polish Academy of Sciences Institute of Geophysics from 1959 to 1973, is examined. For the analysis we selected approximately 400 places with magnitudes from 1.5 to 3.7. A distribution chart of the energy of the jolts is presented. It is shown that the probability of the onset of a seismic jolt with a magnitude exceed M, is expressed by a function of the type P(M)=beta e /SUP -etaM/ where beta is the coefficient which depends on local conditions (for the Upper Silesian basin it is 2.98). A map of isolines of the seismic activity of the basin is presented. It is noted that the nature of the distribution of seismic activity coincides with the tectonic structure of the Upper Silesian depression, which Polish researchers pointed out in 1967.

  8. Estimates of seismic activity in the Cerberus Fossae region of Mars (United States)

    Taylor, J.; Teanby, N. A.; Wookey, J.


    The 2016 NASA InSight lander is the first planetary mission designed to study the deep interior of Mars. InSight's Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) package will quantify global and regional seismic activity and determine parameters like core properties, mantle composition, and Martian lithospheric thickness. An improved understanding of the location, magnitude, and frequency of potential seismic sources is essential for optimization of instrument design, sampling strategy, and interpretation of mission data. We focus on forecasting seismic activity for the Cerberus Fossae of the Elysium Planitia, chosen for their proximity to the proposed landing site and their recent formation and assuming these are active tectonic grabens. The minimum age we determine for the units around the Fossae, using Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment imagery for crater density surveying, is 10 Ma, placing them in the Late Amazonian. We are able to determine the rate of motion from measurements of observed throw, assuming that the faults remain active. Digital terrain models, made from stereo-image pairs from the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC), are used to determine the maximum throw on four graben systems. Using these measured throws to estimate a length-averaged slip and assuming an inferred slip rate from surface age, we estimate an annual moment release of 1.58-1.03+2.35×1017Nm. From this we calculate an annual size-frequency distribution of events using the Gütenberg-Richter relationship. We estimate that between 1.5×100and 1.9×105events per year will have an amplitude greater than the peak band noise and so will be detectable at the InSight landing site.

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region (United States)

    Ayele, Atalay


    Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

  10. Mean vertically inhomogeneous models of the uppermost crust along seismic profiles in the Ohře rift and Moravo-Silesian region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Holub, Karel; Málek, J.; Novotný, O.; Rušajová, Jana; Valenta, J.


    Roč. 6, č. 2 (2006), s. 125-131 ISSN 1213-1962. [Nové poznatky a měření v seismologii, inženýrské geofyzice a geotechnice/15./. Ostrava, 11.04.2006-13.04.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/03/0999; GA AV ČR IAA300460602 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : refraction measurement, * vertically inhomogeneous models, * Weichert-Herglotz method Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  11. Regional seismic lines reprocessed using post-stack processing techniques; National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (United States)

    Miller, John J.; Agena, W.F.; Lee, M.W.; Zihlman, F.N.; Grow, J.A.; Taylor, D.J.; Killgore, Michele; Oliver, H.L.


    This CD-ROM contains stacked, migrated, 2-Dimensional seismic reflection data and associated support information for 22 regional seismic lines (3,470 line-miles) recorded in the National Petroleum Reserve ? Alaska (NPRA) from 1974 through 1981. Together, these lines constitute about one-quarter of the seismic data collected as part of the Federal Government?s program to evaluate the petroleum potential of the Reserve. The regional lines, which form a grid covering the entire NPRA, were created by combining various individual lines recorded in different years using different recording parameters. These data were reprocessed by the USGS using modern, post-stack processing techniques, to create a data set suitable for interpretation on interactive seismic interpretation computer workstations. Reprocessing was done in support of ongoing petroleum resource studies by the USGS Energy Program. The CD-ROM contains the following files: 1) 22 files containing the digital seismic data in standard, SEG-Y format; 2) 1 file containing navigation data for the 22 lines in standard SEG-P1 format; 3) 22 small scale graphic images of each seismic line in Adobe Acrobat? PDF format; 4) a graphic image of the location map, generated from the navigation file, with hyperlinks to the graphic images of the seismic lines; 5) an ASCII text file with cross-reference information for relating the sequential trace numbers on each regional line to the line number and shotpoint number of the original component lines; and 6) an explanation of the processing used to create the final seismic sections (this document). The SEG-Y format seismic files and SEG-P1 format navigation file contain all the information necessary for loading the data onto a seismic interpretation workstation.

  12. Automated seismic detection of landslides at regional scales: a Random Forest based detection algorithm (United States)

    Hibert, C.; Michéa, D.; Provost, F.; Malet, J. P.; Geertsema, M.


    Detection of landslide occurrences and measurement of their dynamics properties during run-out is a high research priority but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has started to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of the densification of global, regional and local networks of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now permit the seismic detection and location of landslides in near-real-time. This seismic detection could potentially greatly increase the spatio-temporal resolution at which we study landslides triggering, which is critical to better understand the influence of external forcings such as rainfalls and earthquakes. However, detecting automatically seismic signals generated by landslides still represents a challenge, especially for events with small mass. The low signal-to-noise ratio classically observed for landslide-generated seismic signals and the difficulty to discriminate these signals from those generated by regional earthquakes or anthropogenic and natural noises are some of the obstacles that have to be circumvented. We present a new method for automatically constructing instrumental landslide catalogues from continuous seismic data. We developed a robust and versatile solution, which can be implemented in any context where a seismic detection of landslides or other mass movements is relevant. The method is based on a spectral detection of the seismic signals and the identification of the sources with a Random Forest machine learning algorithm. The spectral detection allows detecting signals with low signal-to-noise ratio, while the Random Forest algorithm achieve a high rate of positive identification of the seismic signals generated by landslides and other seismic sources. The processing chain is implemented to work in a High Performance Computers centre which permits to explore years of continuous seismic data rapidly. We present here the preliminary results of the application of this processing chain for years

  13. The attenuation of seismic intensity in the Etna region and comparison with other Italian volcanic districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tuvè


    Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the intensity attenuation in the Etna and other Italian volcanic districts, was performed using the most recent and complete intensity datasets. Attenuation laws were derived through empirical models fitting ?I (the difference between epicentral I0 and site Ix intensities average values versus hypocentral site distances by the least-square method. The huge amount of data available for the Etna area allowed us to elaborate bi-linear and logarithmic attenuation models, also taking source effects into account. Furthermore, the coefficients of the Grandori formulation have been re-calculated to verify the ones previously defined for seismic hazard purposes. Among the tested relationships, the logarithmic one is simple and fairly stable, so it was also adopted for the other volcanic Italian areas. The analysis showed different attenuation trends: on the one hand, Etna and Ischia show the highest decay of intensity (?I=4 in the first 20 km; on the contrary, the Aeolian Islands and Albani Hills present a slight intensity attenuation (?I=2 at 20 km from the hypocentre; finally, Vesuvius seems to have an intermediate behaviour between the two groups. The proposed regionalization gives a significantly better image of near-field damage in volcanic regions and is easily applicable to probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

  14. Application of probabilistic seismic hazard models with special calculation for the waste storage sites in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A.A.; El-Hemamy, S.T.


    Probabilistic strong motion maps of Egypt are derived by applying Gumbel models and likelihood method to 8 earthquake source zones in Egypt and adjacent regions. Peak horizontal acceleration is mapped. Seismic data are collected from Helwan Catalog (1900-1997), regional catalog of earthquakes from the International Seismological Center (ISC,1910-1993) and earthquake data reports of US Department of International Geological Survey (USCGS, 1900-1994). Iso-seismic maps are also available for some events, which occurred in Egypt. Some earthquake source zones are well defined on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, but a lack of understanding of the near field effects of the large earthquakes prohibits accurate estimates of ground motion in their vicinity. Some source zones have no large-scale crustal features or zones of weakness that can explain the seismicity and must, therefore, be defined simply as concentrations of seismic activity with no geological or geophysical controls on the boundaries. Other source zones lack information on low-magnitude seismicity that would be representative of longer periods of time. Comparisons of the new probabilistic ground motion estimates in Egypt with equivalent estimates made in 1990 have been done. The new ground motion estimates are used to produce a new peak ground acceleration map to replace the 1990 peak acceleration zoning maps in the Building code of Egypt. (author)

  15. False alarms and mine seismicity: An example from the Gentry Mountain mining region, Utah. Los Alamos Source Region Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, S.R.


    Mining regions are a cause of concern for monitoring of nuclear test ban treaties because they present the opportunity for clandestine nuclear tests (i.e. decoupled explosions). Mining operations are often characterized by high seismicity rates and can provide the cover for excavating voids for decoupling. Chemical explosions (seemingly as part of normal mining activities) can be used to complicate the signals from a simultaneous decoupled nuclear explosion. Thus, most concern about mines has dealt with the issue of missed violations to a test ban treaty. In this study, we raise the diplomatic concern of false alarms associated with mining activities. Numerous reports and papers have been published about anomalous seismicity associated with mining activities. As part of a large discrimination study in the western US (Taylor et al., 1989), we had one earthquake that was consistently classified as an explosion. The magnitude 3.5 disturbance occurred on May 14, 1981 and was conspicuous in its lack of Love waves, relative lack of high- frequency energy, low Lg/Pg ratio, and high m{sub b} {minus} M{sub s}. A moment-tensor solution by Patton and Zandt (1991) indicated the event had a large implosional component. The event occurred in the Gentry Mountain coal mining region in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. Using a simple source representation, we modeled the event as a tabular excavation collapse that occurred as a result of normal mining activities. This study raises the importance of having a good catalogue of seismic data and information about mining activities from potential proliferant nations.

  16. Propagation of Regional Seismic Phases in Western Europe (United States)


    and Southeastern France recorded at short period stations of the LDG (Laboratoire de Detection Geophysique , France) and IGG (Istituto Geofisico were provided by the L.D.G. (Laboratoire de Geophysique ). The french seismic network consists of 27 stations with the same features : the

  17. Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra– Great Nicobar region: In search ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990–1991) of ...

  18. Assessing a 3D smoothed seismicity model of induced earthquakes (United States)

    Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan


    As more energy exploration and extraction efforts cause earthquakes, it becomes increasingly important to control induced seismicity. Risk management schemes must be improved and should ultimately be based on near-real-time forecasting systems. With this goal in mind, we propose a test bench to evaluate models of induced seismicity based on metrics developed by the CSEP community. To illustrate the test bench, we consider a model based on the so-called seismogenic index and a rate decay; to produce three-dimensional forecasts, we smooth past earthquakes in space and time. We explore four variants of this model using the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 datasets to make short-term forecasts, test their consistency, and rank the model variants. Our results suggest that such a smoothed seismicity model is useful for forecasting induced seismicity within three days, and giving more weight to recent events improves forecast performance. Moreover, the location of the largest induced earthquake is forecast well by this model. Despite the good spatial performance, the model does not estimate the seismicity rate well: it frequently overestimates during stimulation and during the early post-stimulation period, and it systematically underestimates around shut-in. In this presentation, we also describe a robust estimate of information gain, a modification that can also benefit forecast experiments involving tectonic earthquakes.

  19. False alarms and mine seismicity: An example from the Gentry Mountain mining region, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, S.R.


    Mining regions are a cause of concern for monitoring of nuclear test ban treaties because they present the opportunity for clandestine nuclear tests (i.e. decoupled explosions). Mining operations are often characterized by high seismicity rates and can provide the cover for excavating voids for decoupling. Chemical explosions (seemingly as part of normal mining activities) can be used to complicate the signals from a simultaneous decoupled nuclear explosion. Thus, most concern about mines has dealt with the issue of missed violations to a test ban treaty. In this study, we raise the diplomatic concern of false alarms associated with mining activities. Numerous reports and papers have been published about anomalous seismicity associated with mining activities. As part of a large discrimination study in the western US (Taylor et al., 1989), we had one earthquake that was consistently classified as an explosion. The magnitude 3.5 disturbance occurred on May 14, 1981 and was conspicuous in its lack of Love waves, relative lack of high- frequency energy, low Lg/Pg ratio, and high m b - M s . A moment-tensor solution by Patton and Zandt (1991) indicated the event had a large implosional component. The event occurred in the Gentry Mountain coal mining region in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. Using a simple source representation, we modeled the event as a tabular excavation collapse that occurred as a result of normal mining activities. This study raises the importance of having a good catalogue of seismic data and information about mining activities from potential proliferant nations

  20. Attenuation of regional seismic phases (Lg and Sn) in Eastern Mongolia (United States)

    He, Jing; Sandvol, Eric; Wu, Qingju; Gao, Mengtan; Gallegos, Andrea; Ulziibat, Munkhuu; Demberel, Sodnomsambuu


    We present tomographic models of frequency-dependent Lg and Sn attenuation in eastern Mongolia using data from 228 local earthquakes that were recorded by 69 broad-band seismic stations. We adopt the two-station method (TSM) and reverse two-station method (RTM) to measure the frequency-dependent Sn and Lg Q values, respectively. The RTM has the advantage of allowing us to make attenuation measurements that are independent of site effects, instrument responses and source parameters. We have tomographically mapped Lg Q and η in order to understand spatial variations in crustal attenuation across eastern Mongolia and the surrounding regions. High Lg attenuation and low η are found in the volcanic region of the Middle Gobi Desert, while high Lg attenuation and high η are found in and around the tectonically active regions of the South Gobi Desert. We have also examined uppermost mantle attenuation by mapping the variation in Sn attenuation and η values. Regions of high Sn attenuation are found in the mountainous and volcanically active regions of the Middle Gobi Desert. Our Lg and Sn attenuation models correlate well with lateral variations in velocity as well as with the major tectonic units that make up eastern Mongolia. High attenuation regions seem to be associated with low velocities, Quaternary volcanoes and Cenozoic tectonic activity.

  1. A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench (United States)

    Ward, Steven N.


    A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

  2. Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: A bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari. F.; . E-mails:;


    The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with a description of 'roundshaking scenarios', or with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. We prefer a scenario-based, deterministic approach in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes. The joint use of reliable synthetic signals and observations permits the computation of advanced hazard indicators (e.g. damaging potential) that take into account local soil properties. The envelope of synthetic elastic energy spectra reproduces the distribution of the energy demand in the most relevant frequency range for seismic engineering. The synthetic accelerograms can be fruitfully used for design and strengthening of structures, also when innovative techniques, like seismic isolation, are employed. For these

  3. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)


    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  4. Global regionalized seismicity in view of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (United States)

    Chochlaki, Kalliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos; Michas, Georgios


    In the present work we study the distribution of Earth's shallow seismicity on different seismic zones, as occurred from 1981 to 2011 and extracted from the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Our analysis is based on the subdivision of the Earth's surface into seismic zones that are homogeneous with regards to seismic activity and orientation of the predominant stress field. For this, we use the Flinn-Engdahl regionalization (FE) (Flinn and Engdahl, 1965), which consists of fifty seismic zones as modified by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007). The latter authors grouped the 50 FE zones into larger tectonically homogeneous ones, utilizing the cumulative moment tensor method, resulting into thirty-nine seismic zones. In each one of these seismic zones we study the distribution of seismicity in terms of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the inter-event time distribution between successive earthquakes, a task that is essential for hazard assessments and to better understand the global and regional geodynamics. In our analysis we use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP), which seems to be one of the most adequate and promising methodological tools for analyzing complex systems, such as the Earth's seismicity, introducing the q-exponential formulation as the expression of probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq entropy as defined by Tsallis, (1988). The qE parameter is significantly greater than one for all the seismic regions analyzed with value range from 1.294 to 1.504, indicating that magnitude correlations are particularly strong. Furthermore, the qT parameter shows some temporal correlations but variations with cut-off magnitude show greater temporal correlations when the smaller magnitude earthquakes are included. The qT for earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 takes values from 1.043 to 1.353 and as we increase the cut-off magnitude to 5.5 and 6 the qT value ranges from 1.001 to 1.242 and from 1.001 to 1.181 respectively, presenting

  5. High-resolution earthquake relocation in the Fort Worth and Permian Basins using regional seismic stations (United States)

    Ogwari, P.; DeShon, H. R.; Hornbach, M.


    Post-2008 earthquake rate increases in the Central United States have been associated with large-scale subsurface disposal of waste-fluids from oil and gas operations. The beginning of various earthquake sequences in Fort Worth and Permian basins have occurred in the absence of seismic stations at local distances to record and accurately locate hypocenters. Most typically, the initial earthquakes have been located using regional seismic network stations (>100km epicentral distance) and using global 1D velocity models, which usually results in large location uncertainty, especially in depth, does not resolve magnitude filters and regional relative location when local data becomes available. We use the local distance data for high-resolution earthquake location, identifying earthquake templates and accurate source-station raypath velocities for the Pg and Lg phases at regional stations. A matched-filter analysis is then applied to seismograms recorded at US network stations and at adopted TA stations that record the earthquakes before and during the local network deployment period. Positive detections are declared based on manual review of associated with P and S arrivals on local stations. We apply hierarchical clustering to distinguish earthquakes that are both spatially clustered and spatially separated. Finally, we conduct relative earthquake and earthquake cluster location using regional station differential times. Initial analysis applied to the 2008-2009 DFW airport sequence in north Texas results in time continuous imaging of epicenters extending into 2014. Seventeen earthquakes in the USGS earthquake catalog scattered across a 10km2 area near DFW airport are relocated onto a single fault using these approaches. These techniques will also be applied toward imaging recent earthquakes in the Permian Basin near Pecos, TX.

  6. Seismological database for Banat seismic region (Romania) - Part 1: The parametric earthquake catalogue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oros, E.; Popa, M.; Moldovan, I. A.


    The most comprehensive seismological database for Banat seismic region (Romania) has been achieved. This paper refers to the essential characteristics of the first component of this database, namely the Parametric Earthquakes Catalogue for the Banat Seismic Region (PECBSR). PECBSR comprises 7783 crustal earthquakes (3 ≤ h ≤ 25 km) with 0.4 ≤ M i ≥ 5.6 (M i is M L , M D , M S , M W , Mm and/or mb from compiled sources) occurred in the Banat region and its surroundings between years 1443 and 2006. Different magnitude scales were converted into moment magnitude scale, Mw. The completeness of PECBSR strongly depends on the time. (authors)

  7. Regional passive seismic monitoring reveals dynamic glacier activity on Spitsbergen, Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Köhler


    Full Text Available Dynamic glacier activity is increasingly observed through passive seismic monitoring. We analysed near-regional-scale seismicity on the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard to identify seismic icequake signals and to study their spatial–temporal distribution within the 14-year period from 2000 until 2013. This is the first study that uses seismic data recorded on permanent broadband stations to detect and locate icequakes in different regions of Spitsbergen, the main island of the archipelago. A temporary local seismic network and direct observations of glacier calving and surging were used to identify icequake sources. We observed a high number of icequakes with clear spectral peaks between 1 and 8 Hz in different parts of Spitsbergen. Spatial clusters of icequakes could be associated with individual grounded tidewater glaciers and exhibited clear seasonal variability each year with more signals observed during the melt season. Locations at the termini of glaciers, and correlation with visual calving observations in situ at Kronebreen, a glacier in the Kongsfjorden region, show that these icequakes were caused dominantly by calving. Indirect evidence for glacier surging through increased calving seismicity was found in 2003 at Tunabreen, a glacier in central Spitsbergen. Another type of icequake was observed in the area of the Nathorstbreen glacier system. Seismic events occurred upstream of the glacier within a short time period between January and May 2009 during the initial phase of a major glacier surge. This study is the first step towards the generation and implementation of an operational seismic monitoring strategy for glacier dynamics in Svalbard.

  8. an improved structural model for seismic analysis of tall frames

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. This paper proposed and examined an improved structural model that overcomes the deficiencies of the shear frame model by considering the effects of flexible horizontal members and column axial loads in seismic analysis of multi-storey frames. Matrix displacement method of analysis is used on the basis of ...

  9. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty


    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

  10. Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle


    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

  11. Seismic modeling for gas field development in offshore Niger Delta: A case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idowu, A.O. (Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., Lagos (Nigeria))


    In practice, seismic data has been used to map the geometry of events in the subsurface, mainly from reflection continuity and the character of reflection packages. Seismic modeling techniques are attempts to mathematically and geometrically represent the geology of the subsurface and to depict the interaction of the geology with a propagating seismic wave front. In the Niger delta, recent development in stratigraphic exploration has induced the examination of more subtle features of reflection, mainly polarity, amplitude, and waveform, to define the limits of seismic resolution and hence predict the geometry of the subsurface fluid and solid interfaces. The field being appraised for development in this study is located approximately 35 km offshore southeast of the Niger delta in a water depth ranging from 20 to 25 m, and the project involves a modeling evaluation of five sand units encountered at different levels in the subsurface. The sands being modeled occur within the Agbada Formation (Miocene age), an alternation sequence of transitional sands and shales characterized by high-amplitude, anomalous seismic events over the Nkop field. Structurally, the field is characterized by seaward facing, contemporaneous growth faults consisting mainly of a rollover anticline located in a regional fault couple, bounded to the north and south by a growth fault.

  12. A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva


    The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

  13. A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalisation model for seismic hazard assessment (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice


    A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognises that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalisation, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalisation process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalisation model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

  14. Seismic model of Mars: Effects of hydration (United States)

    Zharkov, V. N.; Gudkova, T. V.


    The arguments according to which the Martian minerals are assumed to contain large amount of water in the mantle minerals are given. As for the Earth, these minerals may constitute about 60 wt% of the Martian mantle, and can be considered as main components in their zones. In the mantle of the Earth the molecular concentration of Fe is about 10%, and for the mantle of Mars - about 20%. Taking into account twofold increase of Fe in Martian silicates in comparison with the terrestrial minerals, we have extrapolated the available partial experimental data of the hydration effect on the compressional and shear velocities of seismic waves in forsterite (olivine) and its high pressure phases - wadsleyite and ringwoodite for Martian conditions. The presence of water in the mantle of Mars may lead to the noticeable widening of the olivine-wadsleite phase transition zone, thus the determination of the olivine-wadsleite phase transition width by seismological methods could get a direct indication on the presence of water in the mantle of Mars. To find out real estimates of water content in the mantle of Mars is a task for the future seismic missions. The results of this article are important for InSight mission that will land a geophysical station on Mars in 2016.

  15. Synthetic modelling of acoustical propagation applied to seismic oceanography experiments (United States)

    Kormann, Jean; Cobo, Pedro; Biescas, Berta; Sallarés, Valentí; Papenberg, Cord; Recuero, Manuel; Carbonell, Ramón


    Recent work shows that multichannel seismic (MCS) systems provide detailed information on the oceans' finestructure. The aim of this paper is to analyze if high order numerical algorithms are suitable to accurately model the extremely weak wavefield scattered by the oceans' finestructures. For this purpose, we generate synthetic shot records along a coincident seismic and oceanographic profile acquired across a Mediterranean salt lens in the Gulf of Cadiz. We apply a 2D finite-difference time-domain propagation model, together with second-order Complex Frequency Shifted Perfectly Matched Layers at the numerical boundaries, using as reference a realistic sound speed map with the lateral resolution of the seismic data. We show that our numerical propagator creates an acoustical image of the ocean finestructures including the salt lens that reproduces with outstanding detail the real acquired one.

  16. Scale modeling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to seismic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, R.C.


    Reinforced concrete, Category I structures are so large that the possibility of seismicly testing the prototype structures under controlled conditions is essentially nonexistent. However, experimental data, from which important structural properties can be determined and existing and new methods of seismic analysis benchmarked, are badly needed. As a result, seismic experiments on scaled models are of considerable interest. In this paper, the scaling laws are developed in some detail so that assumptions and choices based on judgement can be clearly recognized and their effects discussed. The scaling laws developed are then used to design a reinforced concrete model of a Category I structure. Finally, how scaling is effected by various types of damping (viscous, structural, and Coulomb) is discussed

  17. Working models for spatial distribution and level of Mars' seismicity (United States)

    Knapmeyer, M.; Oberst, J.; Hauber, E.; Wählisch, M.; Deuchler, C.; Wagner, R.


    We present synthetic catalogs of Mars quakes, intended to be used for performance assessments of future seismic networks on the planet. We have compiled a new inventory of compressional and extensional tectonic faults for the planet Mars, comprising 8500 faults with a total length of 680,000 km. The faults were mapped on the basis of Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA) shaded relief. Hence we expect to have assembled a homogeneous data set, not biased by illumination and viewing conditions of image data. Updated models of Martian crater statistics and geological maps were used to assign new maximum ages to all faults. On the basis of the fault catalog, spatial distributions of seismicity were simulated, using assumptions on the available annual seismic moment budget, the moment-frequency relationship, and a relation between rupture length and released moment. We have constructed five different models of Martian seismicity, predicting an annual moment release between 3.42 × 1016 Nm and 4.78 × 1018 Nm and up to 572 events with magnitudes greater than 4 per year as upper limit end-member case. Most events are expected on the Tharsis shield, but minor seismic centers are expected south of Hellas and north of Utopia Planitia.

  18. In-situ measurements of seismic velocities in the San Francisco Bay Region; part III (United States)

    Gibbs, James F.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Borcherdt, Roger D.; Roth, Edward F.


    Seismic wave velocities (compressional and shear) are important parameters for estimating the seismic response characteristics of various geologic units when subjected to strong earthquake ground shaking. Seismic velocities of various units often show a strong correlation with the amounts of damage following large earthquakes and have been used as a basis for certain types of seismic zonation studies. In the current program seismic velocities have been measured at 59 locations 1n the San Francisco Bay Region. This report is the third in a series of Open-File Reports and describes the in-situ velocity measurements at locations 35-59. At each location seismic travel times are measured in drill holes, normally at 2.5-m intervals to a depth of 30 m. Geologic logs are determined from drill cuttings, undisturbed (cored) samples, and penetrometer samples. The data provide a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic characteristics and provide parameters for estimating strong earthquake ground motions quantitatively at each of the sites. A major emphasis of this program is to obtain a detailed comparison of geologic and seismic data on a regional scale for use in seismic zonation. There is a variety of geologic and seismic data available in the San Francisco Bay Region for use 1n developing the general zoning techniques which can then be applied to other areas. Shear wave velocities 1n near-surface geologic materials are of especial interest for engineering seismology and seismic zonation studies, yet in general, they are difficult to measure because of contamination by compressional waves. A comparison of various in-situ techniques by Warrick (1974) establishes the reliability of the method utilizing a "horizontal traction" source for sites underlain by bay mud and alluvium. Gibbs, and others (1975a) present data from 12 holes and establishes the reliability of the method for sites underlain by a variety of different rock units and suggest extending the measurements to

  19. The Erua earthquake cluster and seismic anisotropy in the Ruapehu region, New Zealand (United States)

    Keats, Brook S.; Johnson, Jessica H.; Savage, Martha K.


    We use seismicity generated from the Erua earthquake cluster (a consistently active area of seismicity about 20 km to the west of Mount Ruapehu) over the last 12 years to study seismic anisotropy in the Ruapehu region. In particular, we search for changes associated with two minor phreatic eruptions on the 4th of October 2006 and the 25th of September 2007. The seismicity rate, magnitude of completeness, focal mechanisms and b-value of the cluster are also examined to investigate whether the characteristics of the seismicity changed over the duration of the study. The hypocenters were relocated, which revealed a westward dip in the shallow seismicity. Shear wave splitting results revealed a decrease in delay time in the 2006-2007 period and a significant variation in the fast shear wave polarization in the same time period. The b-value also increased significantly from 1.0 ± 0.2 in 2004 to a peak of 1.8 ± 0.2 in 2007, but no other parameters were found to vary significantly over this time period. We attribute these changes to an increase in pore-fluid pressure in the Erua region due to fluid movement and suggest that this fluid movement may be associated with the eruptions in 2006 and 2007.

  20. Seismic anisotropy and its relation with crust structure and stress field in the Reggio Emilia Region (Northern Italy) (United States)

    Margheriti, L.; Ferulano, M. F.; Di Bona, M.


    Shear wave splitting is measured at 14 seismic stations in the Reggio Emilia region above local background seismicity and two sequences of seismic events. The good quality of the waveforms together with the favourable distribution of earthquake foci allows us to place strong constraints on the geometry and the depth of the anisotropic volume. It is about 60 km2 wide and located between 6 and 11 km depth, inside Mesozoic age carbonate rocks. The splitting results suggest also the presence of a shallower anisotropic layer about 1 km thick and few km wide in the Pliocene-Quaternary alluvium above the Mesozoic layer. The fast polarization directions (N30°E) are approximately parallel to the maximum horizontal stress (σ1 is SSW-NNE) in the region and also parallel to the strike of the main structural features in the Reggio Emilia area. The size of the delay times suggests about 4.5 per cent shear wave velocity anisotropy. These parameters agree with an interpretation of seismic anisotropy in terms of the extensive-dilatancy anisotropy model which considers the rock volume to be pervaded by fluid-saturated microcracks aligned by the active stress field. We cannot completely rule out the contribution of aligned macroscopic fractures as the cause of the shear wave anisotropy even if the parallel shear wave polarizations we found are diagnostic of transverse isotropy with a horizontal axis of symmetry. This symmetry is commonly explained by parallel stress-aligned microcracks.

  1. Evolution and strengthening of the Calabrian Regional Seismic Network during the Pollino sequence (United States)

    D'Alessandro, Antonino; Gervasi, Anna; Guerra, Ignazio


    In the last three years the Calabria-Lucania border area is affected by an intense seismic activity generated by the activation of geological structures which be seat of clusters of microearthquakes, with energy release sufficient to be felt and to generate alarm and bother. Besides to the historical memory of the inhabitants of Mormanno (the town most affected of macroseismic effects) there are some historical documents that indicate the occurrence of a similar seismic crisis in 1888. A more recent seismic sequence, the first monitored by seismic instruments, occurred in 1973-1974. In the last case, the activity started in early 2010 and is still ongoing. The two shocks of ML = 4.3 and 5.0 and the the very long time duration differs this crisis from the previous ones. Given this background, in 1981 was installed at Mormanno a seismic station (MMN) belonging to Regional Seismic Network of the University of Calabria (RSRC), now also a station of the Italian National Seismic Network of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica Vulcanolgia (INSN-INGV). This seismic station made it possible to follow the evolution of seismicity in this area and in particular the progressive increase in seismic activity started in 2010. Since 2010, some 3D stand-alone, was installed by the University of Calabria. Further stations of INGV were installed in November 2011 after a sharp increase of the energy release and subsequently by the INGV and the GeoForschungsZentrum (Potsdam) after the main shock of the whole sequence. Seismic networks are powerful tools for understanding active tectonic processes in a monitored seismically active region. However, the optimal monitoring of a seismic region requires the assessment of the seismic network capabilities to identify seismogenic areas that are not adequately covered and to quantify measures that will allow the network improvement. In this paper we examine in detail the evolution and the strengthening of the RSRC in the last years analyzing the

  2. Predictive seismic modeling case history from the Niger delta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idowu, A.O. (Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., Lagos (Nigeria))


    Seismic modeling techniques provide the mechanics for simulating the geology of the subsurface by depicting the impact of a propagating seismic wavefront on subsurface structures. In practice, seismic data have been used to map the geometry of events in the subsurface, mainly from reflection continuity and the character of reflection packages. In the Niger delta, recent developments in stratigraphic exploration has induced the examination of more subtle features of reflection, mainly polarity, amplitude, and waveform to define the limits of seismic resolution and hence predict the geometry of subsurface fluid and solid interfaces. The case history discussed here involved interpretative study for defining the fluid contents of prospective oil and gas leads as indicated by anomalous seismic events on a Niger delta field located in a water depth of 25 m. An appropriate source signal (5-35 Hertz minimum phase) is selected, and the wavelet is convolved with a practical geologic model to obtain a synthetic seismogram. By an interactive process involving slight modifications in the geologic model, a synthetic seismogram is ultimately derived that matches a field signal, thus providing a more accurate prediction of the geological formation under study. The technique was effect (as confirmed by later drilling) in appraising the fluid contents of the targeted pay zones encountered at gas/water, oil/water, and gas/oil/water contacts in the O field, located in the eastern offshore area of the Niger delta. The method further demonstrated that structural and stratigraphic modeling are effective tools for testing the mapability of a geologic concept and are able to evaluate the significance of reflectivity changes or anomalies on uncalibrated seismic data.

  3. Seismicity and coupled deformation modeling at the Coso Geothermal Field (United States)

    Kaven, J. O.; Hickman, S. H.; Davatzes, N. C.


    Micro-seismicity in geothermal reservoirs, in particular in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), is a beneficial byproduct of injection and production, as it can indicate the generation of high-permeability pathways on either pre-existing or newly generated faults and fractures. The hazard of inducing an earthquake large enough to be felt at the surface, however, is not easily avoided and has led to termination of some EGS projects. To explore the physical processes leading to permeability creation and maintenance in geothermal systems and the physics of induced earthquakes , we investigated the evolution of seismicity and the factors controlling the migration, moment release rate, and timing of seismicity in the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF). We report on seismicity in the CGF that has been relocated with high precision double-difference relocation techniques and simultaneous velocity inversions to understand hydrologic reservoir compartmentalization and the nature of subsurface boundaries to fluid flow. We find that two distinct compartments are present within the CGF, which are divided by an aseismic gap showing a relatively low Vp/Vs ratio, likely indicating lower temperatures or lower pore pressures within the gap than in the adjacent reservoir compartments. Well-located events with Mw> 3.5 tend to map onto reactivated fault structures that were revealed when imaged by the relocated micro-seismicity. We relate the temporal and spatial migration of moment release rate to the injection and production histories in the reservoir by employing a thermo-poro-elastic finite element model that takes into account the compartment boundaries defined by the seismicity. We find that pore pressure effects alone are not responsible for the migration of seismicity and that poro-elastic and thermo-elastic stress changes are needed in addition to fluid pressure effects to account for the observed moment release rates.

  4. Summary report of seismic PSA of BWR model plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This report presents a seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) methodology developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) for evaluating risks of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the results from an application of the methodology to a BWR plant in Japan, which is termed Model Plant'. The seismic PSA procedures developed at JAERI are to evaluate core damage frequency (CDF) and have the following four steps: (1) evaluation of seismic hazard, (2) evaluation of realistic response, (3) evaluation of component capacities and failure probabilities, and (4) evaluation of conditional probability of system failure and CDF. Although these procedures are based on the methodologies established and used in the United States, they include several unique features: (1) seismic hazard analysis is performed with use of available knowledge and database on seismological conditions in Japan; (2) response evaluation is performed with a response factor method which is cost effective and associated uncertainties can be reduced with use of modern methods of design calculations; (3) capacity evaluation is performed with use of test results available in Japan in combination with design information and generic capacity data in the U.S.A.; (4) systems reliability analysis, performed with use of the computer code SECOM-2 developed at JAERI, includes identification of dominant accident sequences, importance analysis of components and systems as well as the CDF evaluation with consideration of the effect of correlation of failures by a newly developed method based on the Monte Carlo method. The effect of correlation has been recognized as an important issue in seismic PSAs. The procedures was used to perform a seismic PSA of a 1100 MWe BWR plant. Results are shown as well as the insights derived and future research needs identified in this seismic PSA. (J.P.N.)

  5. A Geo-referenced 3D model of the Juan de Fuca Slab and associated seismicity (United States)

    Blair, J.L.; McCrory, P.A.; Oppenheimer, D.H.; Waldhauser, F.


    We present a Geographic Information System (GIS) of a new 3-dimensional (3D) model of the subducted Juan de Fuca Plate beneath western North America and associated seismicity of the Cascadia subduction system. The geo-referenced 3D model was constructed from weighted control points that integrate depth information from hypocenter locations and regional seismic velocity studies. We used the 3D model to differentiate earthquakes that occur above the Juan de Fuca Plate surface from earthquakes that occur below the plate surface. This GIS project of the Cascadia subduction system supersedes the one previously published by McCrory and others (2006). Our new slab model updates the model with new constraints. The most significant updates to the model include: (1) weighted control points to incorporate spatial uncertainty, (2) an additional gridded slab surface based on the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) Surface program which constructs surfaces based on splines in tension (see expanded description below), (3) double-differenced hypocenter locations in northern California to better constrain slab location there, and (4) revised slab shape based on new hypocenter profiles that incorporate routine depth uncertainties as well as data from new seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction studies. We also provide a 3D fly-through animation of the model for use as a visualization tool.

  6. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš


    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  7. Numerical modeling of the 2017 active seismic infrasound balloon experiment (United States)

    Brissaud, Q.; Komjathy, A.; Garcia, R.; Cutts, J. A.; Pauken, M.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Mimoun, D.; Jackson, J. M.; Lai, V. H.; Kedar, S.; Levillain, E.


    We have developed a numerical tool to propagate acoustic and gravity waves in a coupled solid-fluid medium with topography. It is a hybrid method between a continuous Galerkin and a discontinuous Galerkin method that accounts for non-linear atmospheric waves, visco-elastic waves and topography. We apply this method to a recent experiment that took place in the Nevada desert to study acoustic waves from seismic events. This experiment, developed by JPL and its partners, wants to demonstrate the viability of a new approach to probe seismic-induced acoustic waves from a balloon platform. To the best of our knowledge, this could be the only way, for planetary missions, to perform tomography when one faces challenging surface conditions, with high pressure and temperature (e.g. Venus), and thus when it is impossible to use conventional electronics routinely employed on Earth. To fully demonstrate the effectiveness of such a technique one should also be able to reconstruct the observed signals from numerical modeling. To model the seismic hammer experiment and the subsequent acoustic wave propagation, we rely on a subsurface seismic model constructed from the seismometers measurements during the 2017 Nevada experiment and an atmospheric model built from meteorological data. The source is considered as a Gaussian point source located at the surface. Comparison between the numerical modeling and the experimental data could help future mission designs and provide great insights into the planet's interior structure.

  8. Study of attenuation structure for central Anatolia region, Turkey based on Keskin seismic array data (United States)

    Semin, K. U.; Ozel, N. M.


    Central Anatolia is bounded in the north by the well-known north Anatolian fault system (NAFS) and on the south-southwest is bounded by the east Anatolian fault system (EAFS). The central area does not have major faults and acts as a single block moving westward. This region is not considered as seismically active as the NAFS or EAFS but the recent moderate-size Bala earthquakes (Ml=5.7, Ml= 5.5) on 20 and 27 December 2007 near the Tuz golu fault may be an indication of future seismic activity. In order to get a better picture of the crustal structure of this region we applied Coda Normalization method for the measurement of Qs-1 as a function of frequency for the frequencies 1.5, 3, 6, 8 Hz. 20 and 27 December 2007 Bala earthquakes (Ml magnitude 5.6 an 5.5) and their aftershocks recorded by the Keskin seismic array (International Monitoring System code BRTR) is analyzed in this study. Keskin seismic array has a small aperture circular design with 6 vertical short period and 1 broadband borehole seismometers. In addition, Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) method was applied to the data for the separation of intrinsic and scattering attenuation inm the region at the same frequencies. MLTWA method allowed a separation between the intrinsic attenuation and scattering attenuation. Preliminary results show a relatively low attenuation compared to western and eastern anatolia regions. This might be explained by the less seismicity in the region. A study of the regional and site attenuation of seismic waves of earthquakes in this area will contribute in predicting earthquake generated ground-motion and becomes vital in making decisions for earthquake regulations, building codes and to monitoring nuclear explosions.

  9. Preliminary Modeling of Global Seismic Wave Propagation in the Whole Mars (United States)

    Toyokuni, G.; Ishihara, Y.; Takenaka, H.


    Global seismic wave propagation in the whole Mars is simulated by an accurate and efficient numerical scheme which has been developed for the Earth. Simple Mars models are used to obtain preliminary results of martian seismic waveform modeling.

  10. Dike propagation energy balance from deformation modeling and seismic release (United States)

    Bonaccorso, Alessandro; Aoki, Yosuke; Rivalta, Eleonora


    Magma is transported in the crust mainly by dike intrusions. In volcanic areas, dikes can ascend toward the free surface and also move by lateral propagation, eventually feeding flank eruptions. Understanding dike mechanics is a key to forecasting the expected propagation and associated hazard. Several studies have been conducted on dike mechanisms and propagation; however, a less in-depth investigated aspect is the relation between measured dike-induced deformation and the seismicity released during its propagation. We individuated a simple x that can be used as a proxy of the expected mechanical energy released by a propagating dike and is related to its average thickness. For several intrusions around the world (Afar, Japan, and Mount Etna), we correlate such mechanical energy to the seismic moment released by the induced earthquakes. We obtain an empirical law that quantifies the expected seismic energy released before arrest. The proposed approach may be helpful to predict the total seismic moment that will be released by an intrusion and thus to control the energy status during its propagation and the time of dike arrest.Plain Language SummaryDike propagation is a dominant mechanism for magma ascent, transport, and eruptions. Besides being an intriguing physical process, it has critical hazard implications. After the magma intrusion starts, it is difficult to predict when and where a specific horizontal dike is going to halt and what its final length will be. In our study, we singled an equation that can be used as a proxy of the expected mechanical energy to be released by the opening dike. We related this expected energy to the seismic moment of several eruptive intrusions around the world (Afar region, Japanese volcanoes, and Mount Etna). The proposed novel approach is helpful to estimate the total seismic moment to be released, therefore allowing potentially predicting when the dike will end its propagation. The approach helps answer one of the

  11. Determining resolvability of mantle plumes with synthetic seismic modeling (United States)

    Maguire, R.; Van Keken, P. E.; Ritsema, J.; Fichtner, A.; Goes, S. D. B.


    Hotspot volcanism in locations such as Hawaii and Iceland is commonly thought to be associated with plumes rising from the deep mantle. In theory these dynamic upwellings should be visible in seismic data due to their reduced seismic velocity and their effect on mantle transition zone thickness. Numerous studies have attempted to image plumes [1,2,3], but their deep mantle origin remains unclear. In addition, a debate continues as to whether lower mantle plumes are visible in the form of body wave travel time delays, or whether such delays will be erased due to wavefront healing. Here we combine geodynamic modeling of mantle plumes with synthetic seismic waveform modeling in order to quantitatively determine under what conditions mantle plumes should be seismically visible. We model compressible plumes with phase changes at 410 km and 670 km, and a viscosity reduction in the upper mantle. These plumes thin from greater than 600 km in diameter in the lower mantle, to 200 - 400 km in the upper mantle. Plume excess potential temperature is 375 K, which maps to seismic velocity reductions of 4 - 12 % in the upper mantle, and 2 - 4 % in the lower mantle. Previous work that was limited to an axisymmetric spherical geometry suggested that these plumes would not be visible in the lower mantle [4]. Here we extend this approach to full 3D spherical wave propagation modeling. Initial results using a simplified cylindrical plume conduit suggest that mantle plumes with a diameter of 1000 km or greater will retain a deep mantle seismic signature. References[1] Wolfe, Cecily J., et al. "Seismic structure of the Iceland mantle plume." Nature 385.6613 (1997): 245-247. [2] Montelli, Raffaella, et al. "Finite-frequency tomography reveals a variety of plumes in the mantle." Science 303.5656 (2004): 338-343. [3] Schmandt, Brandon, et al. "Hot mantle upwelling across the 660 beneath Yellowstone." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 331 (2012): 224-236. [4] Hwang, Yong Keun, et al

  12. Present-day heat flow and seismicity of Mars as predicted from convective thermal evolution models (United States)

    Plesa, A.-C.; Tosi, N.; Knapmeyer, M.; Grott, M.; Breuer, D.; Golombek, M.; Wieczorek, M.; Spohn, T.


    The InSight (Interior exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) Discovery class mission, to be launched in 2018, will perform a comprehensive geophysical investigation of Mars using a seismometer and a heat flow probe as well as precision tracking. The seismic and heat flow data are ultimately important to constrain the present-day interior structure and heat budget of the planet, and, in turn, offer constraints on its thermal and chemical evolution. As the InSight lander will perform its measurements at a single location, in the Elysium Planitia region, numerical simulations of the dynamics of the interior can greatly help to interpret the data in a global context. In this study we present 3D numerical thermal evolution models of Mars and focus on the present-day state. Furthermore, we compare our results with available estimates of elastic lithosphere thickness and seismicity.

  13. Modeling the Excitation of Seismic Waves by the Joplin Tornado (United States)

    Valovcin, Anne; Tanimoto, Toshiro


    Tornadoes generate seismic signals when they contact the ground. Here we examine the signals excited by the Joplin tornado, which passed within 2 km of a station in the Earthscope Transportable Array. We model the tornado-generated vertical seismic signal at low frequencies (0.01-0.03 Hz) and solve for the strength of the seismic source. The resulting source amplitude is largest when the tornado was reported to be strongest (EF 4-5), and the amplitude is smallest when the tornado was weak (EF 0-2). A further understanding of the relationship between source amplitude and tornado intensity could open up new ways to study tornadoes from the ground.

  14. Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data (United States)

    Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank


    In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source

  15. Thermal regime of the lithosphere and prediction of seismic hazard in the Caspian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, L.E.; Solodilov, L.N.; Kondorskaya, N.V.; Gasanov, A.G; Panahi, B.M.


    Full text : Prediction of seicmicity is one of elements of ecology hazard warning. In this collective research, it is elaborated in three directions : quantitative estimate of regional faults by level of seismic activity; ascertainment of space position of earthquake risk zones, determination of high seismic potential sites for the period of the next 3-5 years. During elaboration of prediction, it takes into account that peculiar feature all over the is determined by relationship of about 90 percent of earthquake hypocenters and released energy of seismic waves with elactic-brittle ayer of the lithosphere. Concetration of earthquakes epicenters is established predominantly in zones of complex structure of elastic-brittle layer where gradient of it thickness is 20-30 km. Directions of hypocenters migration in the plastic-viscous layer reveal a space position of seismic dangerous zones. All this provides a necessity for generalization of data on location of earthquakes epicenters; determination of their magnitudes, space position of regional faults and heat flow with calculation of thermal regime being made for clarification of the lithosphere and elastic-brittle thickness variations separately. General analysis includes a calculation of released seismic wave energy and determination of peculiar features of its distribution in the entire region and also studies of hypocenters migration in the plastic-viscous layer of the litosphere in time.

  16. Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.


    Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

  17. Crustal seismic structure and depth distribution of earthquakes in the Archean Kuusamo region, Fennoscandian Shield (United States)

    Uski, Marja; Tiira, Timo; Grad, Marek; Yliniemi, Jukka


    Two-dimensional crustal velocity models are derived from passive seismic observations for the Archean Karelian bedrock of north-eastern Finland. In addition, an updated Moho depth map is constructed by integrating the results of this study with previous data sets. The structural models image a typical three-layer Archean crust, with thickness varying between 40 and 52 km. P wave velocities within the 12-20 km thick upper crust range from 6.1 to 6.4 km/s. The relatively high velocities are related to layered mafic intrusive and volcanic rocks. The middle crust is a fairly homogeneous layer associated with velocities of 6.5-6.8 km/s. The boundary between middle and lower crust is located at depths between 28 and 38 km. The thickness of the lower crust increases from 5-15 km in the Archean part to 15-22 km in the Archean-Proterozoic transition zone. In the lower crust and uppermost mantle, P wave velocities vary between 6.9-7.3 km/s and 7.9-8.2 km/s. The average Vp/ Vs ratio increases from 1.71 in the upper crust to 1.76 in the lower crust. The crust attains its maximum thickness in the south-east, where the Archean crust is both over- and underthrust by the Proterozoic crust. A crustal depression bulging out from that zone to the N-NE towards Kuusamo is linked to a collision between major Archean blocks. Further north, crustal thickening under the Salla and Kittilä greenstone belts is tentatively associated with a NW-SE-oriented collision zone or major shear zone. Elevated Moho beneath the Pudasjärvi block is primarily explained with rift-related extension and crustal thinning at ˜2.4-2.1 Ga. The new crustal velocity models and synthetic waveform modelling are used to outline the thickness of the seismogenic layer beneath the temporary Kuusamo seismic network. Lack of seismic activity within the mafic high-velocity body in the uppermost 8 km of crust and relative abundance of mid-crustal, i.e., 14-30 km deep earthquakes are characteristic features of the Kuusamo

  18. Automatic detection of alpine rockslides in continuous seismic data using hidden Markov models (United States)

    Dammeier, Franziska; Moore, Jeffrey R.; Hammer, Conny; Haslinger, Florian; Loew, Simon


    Data from continuously recording permanent seismic networks can contain information about rockslide occurrence and timing complementary to eyewitness observations and thus aid in construction of robust event catalogs. However, detecting infrequent rockslide signals within large volumes of continuous seismic waveform data remains challenging and often requires demanding manual intervention. We adapted an automatic classification method using hidden Markov models to detect rockslide signals in seismic data from two stations in central Switzerland. We first processed 21 known rockslides, with event volumes spanning 3 orders of magnitude and station event distances varying by 1 order of magnitude, which resulted in 13 and 19 successfully classified events at the two stations. Retraining the models to incorporate seismic noise from the day of the event improved the respective results to 16 and 19 successful classifications. The missed events generally had low signal-to-noise ratio and small to medium volumes. We then processed nearly 14 years of continuous seismic data from the same two stations to detect previously unknown events. After postprocessing, we classified 30 new events as rockslides, of which we could verify three through independent observation. In particular, the largest new event, with estimated volume of 500,000 m3, was not generally known within the Swiss landslide community, highlighting the importance of regional seismic data analysis even in densely populated mountainous regions. Our method can be easily implemented as part of existing earthquake monitoring systems, and with an average event detection rate of about two per month, manual verification would not significantly increase operational workload.

  19. Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics (United States)

    Becker, T. W.


    Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

  20. Building an Ensemble Seismic Hazard Model for the Magnitude Distribution by Using Alternative Bayesian Implementations (United States)

    Taroni, M.; Selva, J.


    In this work we show how we built an ensemble seismic hazard model for the magnitude distribution for the TSUMAPS-NEAM EU project ( The considered source area includes the whole NEAM region (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas). We build our models by using the catalogs (EMEC and ISC), their completeness and the regionalization provided by the project. We developed four alternative implementations of a Bayesian model, considering tapered or truncated Gutenberg-Richter distributions, and fixed or variable b-value. The frequency size distribution is based on the Weichert formulation. This allows for simultaneously assessing all the frequency-size distribution parameters (a-value, b-value, and corner magnitude), using multiple completeness periods for the different magnitudes. With respect to previous studies, we introduce the tapered Pareto distribution (in addition to the classical truncated Pareto), and we build a novel approach to quantify the prior distribution. For each alternative implementation, we set the prior distributions using the global seismic data grouped according to the different types of tectonic setting, and assigned them to the related regions. The estimation is based on the complete (not declustered) local catalog in each region. Using the complete catalog also allows us to consider foreshocks and aftershocks in the seismic rate computation: the Poissonicity of the tsunami events (and similarly the exceedances of the PGA) will be insured by the Le Cam's theorem. This Bayesian approach provides robust estimations also in the zones where few events are available, but also leaves us the possibility to explore the uncertainty associated with the estimation of the magnitude distribution parameters (e.g. with the classical Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method). Finally we merge all the models with their uncertainty to create the ensemble model that represents our knowledge of the seismicity in the

  1. Multifractal analysis of seismicity observed in the Mexican South Pacific region (United States)

    Flores-Marquez, Leticia; Ramírez Rojas, Alejandro


    We investigated the multifractal properties of seismicity monitored on the Mexican Pacific south Coast. Some authors in several seismic regions around the world have investigated multifractality in earthquakes, reveling scaling regimes: non homogeneous and multifraltals at small scales, monofractals and close to Poissonian at large scales. Our analysis consider that the different subduction features, due to the interactions between the La Rivera and Cocos plates with the North America plate is able to describe local particular dynamical properties. The multifractal spectrum, f(α), calculated for four seismic subregions displays specific properties suggesting that such singularities spectrum contains local dynamical information which is able to contribute in the knowledge of the tectonics dynamics in subduction phenomena, in particular the four studied regions show multifractality behavior.

  2. Toe-of-slope of a Cretaceous carbonate platform in outcrop, seismic model and offshore seismic data (Apulia, Italy) (United States)

    Bracco Gartner, Guido; Morsilli, Michele; Schlager, Wolfgang; Bosellini, Alfonso

    Synthetic seismic models of outcrops in the Early Cretaceous slope of a carbonate platform on the Gargano Promontory (southern Italy) were compared to an offshore seismic section south of the Promontory. Outcrops of the same age on the promontory have the same sequence stratigraphic characteristics as their offshore equivalent, and are the only areas where the transition from platform to basin of Early Cretaceous is exposed on land. Two adjacent outcrop areas were combined into one seismic-scale lithologic model with the aid of photo mosaics, measured sections, and biostratigraphic data. Velocity, density, and porosity measurements on spot samples were used to construct the impedance model. Seismic models were generated by vertical incidence and finite difference programs. The results indicate that the reflections in the seismic model are controlled by the impedance contrast between low porous intervals rich in debris from the platform and highly porous intervals of pelagic lime mudstone, nearly devoid of debris. Finite difference seismic display showed best resemblance with the real seismic data, especially by mapping a drowning unconformity.

  3. Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece (United States)

    Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.


    Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

  4. Seismic hazard assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa using geodetic strain rate models (United States)

    Poggi, Valerio; Pagani, Marco; Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Durrheim, Raymond J.; Mavonga Tuluka, Georges


    The East African Rift System (EARS) is the major active tectonic feature of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Although the seismicity level of such a divergent plate boundary can be described as moderate, several earthquakes have been reported in historical times causing a non-negligible level of damage, albeit mostly due to the high vulnerability of the local buildings and structures. Formulation and enforcement of national seismic codes is therefore an essential future risk mitigation strategy. Nonetheless, a reliable risk assessment cannot be done without the calibration of an updated seismic hazard model for the region. Unfortunately, the major issue in assessing seismic hazard in Sub-Saharan Africa is the lack of basic information needed to construct source and ground motion models. The historical earthquake record is largely incomplete, while instrumental catalogue is complete down to sufficient magnitude only for a relatively short time span. In addition, mapping of seimogenically active faults is still an on-going program. Recent studies have identified major seismogenic lineaments, but there is substantial lack of kinematic information for intermediate-to-small scale tectonic features, information that is essential for the proper calibration of earthquake recurrence models. To compensate this lack of information, we experiment the use of a strain rate model recently developed by Stamps et al. (2015) in the framework of a earthquake hazard and risk project along the EARS supported by USAID and jointly carried out by GEM and AfricaArray. We use the inferred geodetic strain rates to derive estimates of total scalar moment release, subsequently used to constrain earthquake recurrence relationships for both area (as distributed seismicity) and fault source models. The rates obtained indirectly from strain rates and more classically derived from the available seismic catalogues are then compared and combined into a unique mixed earthquake recurrence model

  5. Seismic source-region elastic calculations on KDYNA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, D.B.


    This paper summarizes the results of source-region simulations on the KDYNA hydrodynamics code. The source was a pressure-step function in a 40-m-radius cavity 500 m below a free surface. The problem of a driven cavity in an elastic material was chosen as a test and calibration problem for two reasons. First, the driven cavity is a model for an underground explosion. Secondly, the availability of analytical methods for waves in elastic solids means that alternate calculational paths exist for calculating the distant signals from the cavity. Data from an array of sensor points roughly 1 km from the source were saved and passed to Howard Patton and Keith K. Nakanish for input to a NMTS (Normal Mode Time Series) code. The data consisted of the time histories (0 to 2 s) of the radial and axial velocities and the radial, axial, and shear components of the stress at each sensor point. The NMTS code will use the input to predict the signals in the far field (e.g., 300 km) from the explosion source. This elastic KDYNA calculation provides a complete and satisfactory simulation for input to the NMTS code and for comparison with other calculational methods.

  6. Core seismic behaviour: linear and non-linear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, M.; Van Dorsselaere, M.; Gauvain, M.; Jenapierre-Gantenbein, M.


    The usual methodology for the core seismic behaviour analysis leads to a double complementary approach: to define a core model to be included in the reactor-block seismic response analysis, simple enough but representative of basic movements (diagrid or slab), to define a finer core model, with basic data issued from the first model. This paper presents the history of the different models of both kinds. The inert mass model (IMM) yielded a first rough diagrid movement. The direct linear model (DLM), without shocks and with sodium as an added mass, let to two different ones: DLM 1 with independent movements of the fuel and radial blanket subassemblies, and DLM 2 with a core combined movement. The non-linear (NLM) ''CORALIE'' uses the same basic modelization (Finite Element Beams) but accounts for shocks. It studies the response of a diameter on flats and takes into account the fluid coupling and the wrapper tube flexibility at the pad level. Damping consists of one modal part of 2% and one part due to shocks. Finally, ''CORALIE'' yields the time-history of the displacements and efforts on the supports, but damping (probably greater than 2%) and fluid-structures interaction are still to be precised. The validation experiments were performed on a RAPSODIE core mock-up on scale 1, in similitude of 1/3 as to SPX 1. The equivalent linear model (ELM) was developed for the SPX 1 reactor-block response analysis and a specified seismic level (SB or SM). It is composed of several oscillators fixed to the diagrid and yields the same maximum displacements and efforts than the NLM. The SPX 1 core seismic analysis with a diagrid input spectrum which corresponds to a 0,1 g group acceleration, has been carried out with these models: some aspects of these calculations are presented here

  7. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena


    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  8. 23. Why are Buildings with Shear Walls Preferred in Seismic Regions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 10; Issue 11. Learning Earthquake Design and Construction – 23. Why are Buildings with Shear Walls Preferred in Seismic Regions? C V R Murty. Classroom Volume 10 Issue 11 November 2005 pp 85-88 ...

  9. Equivalent Viscous Damping Models in Displacement Based Seismic Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raul Zaharia


    Full Text Available The paper reviews some equivalent viscous damping models used in the displacement based seismic design considering the equivalent linearization. The limits of application of the models are highlighted, based on comparison existing in the literature. The study is part of research developed by author, aimed to determine the equivalent linear parameters in order to predict the maximum displacement response for earthquakes compatible with given response spectra.

  10. Passive seismic experiment in the Olduvai Gorge and Laetoli region (Ngorongoro Conservation Area), Northern Tanzania. (United States)

    Parisi, Laura; Lombardo, Luigi; Tang, Zheng; Mai, P. Martin


    The Olduvai Gorge and Laetoli basins, located within the Ngorogoro Conservation Area (NCA), are a cornerstone for understanding the evolution of early humans and are two paleo-antropological excavation sites of global importance. NCA is located at the boundary between the Tanzanian Craton and East African Rift (EAR), in the vicinity of Ngorongoro Crater and other major volcanic edifices. Thus, understanding the geology and tectonics of the NCA may shed light onto the question why early Hominins settled in this region. Environmental and geological conditions in the Olduvai and Laetoli region that promoted human settlement and development are still debated by geologists and paleo-anthropologists. Paleo-geographical reconstructions of the study area of the last 2 million years may take advantage of modern passive seismology. Therefore, we installed a dense seismic network covering a surface of approximately 30 x 40 km within the NCA to map the depth extent of known faults, and to identify seismically active faults that have no surface expression. Our ten seismic stations, equipped with Trillium Compact 120 s sensors, started to operate in June 2016 and will continue for a total of 2 years. At the end of the first year, other 5 stations will densify our network. Here we analyse data quality of the first four months of continuous recordings. Our network provides good quality 3-C waveforms in the frequency range of 0.7-50 Hz. Vertical component seismograms record frequencies reliably down to 8 mHz. Preliminary results of the seismicity obtained with standard location procedures show that NCA is characterised by frequent tectonic seismicity (not volcano-related) with Ml between 0.5 and 2.0. Seismic activity is more frequent in the South (Laetoli region) where major fault systems have not been recognised at the surface yet.

  11. Analysis of the seismicity in the region of Mirovo salt mine after 8 years monitoring (United States)

    Dimitrova, Liliya; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena; Georgieva, Gergana


    Mirovo salt deposit is situated in the NE part of Bulgaria and 5 kilometers away from the town of Provadiya. The mine is in operation since 1956. The salt is produced by dilution and extraction of the brine to the surface. A system of chambers-pillars is formed within the salt body as a result of the applied technology. The mine is situated in a seismically quiet part of the state. The region is characterized with complex geological structure and several faults. During the last 3 decades a large number of small and moderate earthquakes (MVPN and MAN networks of the Bulgarian Telecommunication Company. Common processing and interpretation of the data from LSN and the national seismic network is performed. Real-time and interactive data processing are performed by the Seismic Network Data Processor (SNDP) software package. More than 700 earthquakes are registered by the LSN within 30km region around the mine during the 8 years monitoring. First we processed the data and compile a catalogue of the earthquakes occur within the studied region (30km around the salt mine). Spatial pattern of seismicity is analyzed. A large number of the seismic events occurred within the northern and north-western part of the salt body. Several earthquakes occurred in close vicinity of the mine. Concerning that the earthquakes could be tectonic and/or induced an attempt is made to find criteria to distinguish natural from induced seismicity. To characterize and distinguish the main processes active in the area we also made waveform and spectral analysis of a number of earthquakes.

  12. Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu


    Full Text Available The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less, the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km, Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII

  13. Identification of temporal patterns in the seismicity of Sumatra using Poisson Hidden Markov models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Orfanogiannaki


    Full Text Available On 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005 two large earthquakes occurred between the Indo-Australian and the southeastern Eurasian plates with moment magnitudes Mw=9.1 and Mw=8.6, respectively. Complete data (mb≥4.2 of the post-1993 time interval have been used to apply Poisson Hidden Markov models (PHMMs for identifying temporal patterns in the time series of the two earthquake sequences. Each time series consists of earthquake counts, in given and constant time units, in the regions determined by the aftershock zones of the two mainshocks. In PHMMs each count is generated by one of m different Poisson processes that are called states. The series of states is unobserved and is in fact a Markov chain. The model incorporates a varying seismicity rate, it assigns a different rate to each state and it detects the changes on the rate over time. In PHMMs unobserved factors, related to the local properties of the region are considered affecting the earthquake occurrence rate. Estimation and interpretation of the unobserved sequence of states that underlie the data contribute to better understanding of the geophysical processes that take place in the region. We applied PHMMs to the time series of the two mainshocks and we estimated the unobserved sequences of states that underlie the data. The results obtained showed that the region of the 26 December 2004 earthquake was in state of low seismicity during almost the entire observation period. On the contrary, in the region of the 28 March 2005 earthquake the seismic activity is attributed to triggered seismicity, due to stress transfer from the region of the 2004 mainshock.

  14. Air gun seismic effects on larvae and fry offshore; modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstroem, S.


    This report presents results from modeling and simulation of air gun seismic effects on fish and fry. A model has been developed to describe the behavior of fishes when a seismic ship is approaching and passes by the volume of residence of the fishes. The swimming capacity, the reaction to acoustic stimuli, the hearing threshold and the vertical distribution of the fishes have been included in the model. The model has been applied on cod fishes of length 25 and 350 mm. For realistic vertical distributions the big cod fishes will get away from the region near the boat where the probability for a mortal damage is greatest. 121 refs., 40 figs., 13 tabs

  15. Realistic modelling of observed seismic motion in complex sedimentary basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faeh, D.; Panza, G.F.


    Three applications of a numerical technique are illustrated to model realistically the seismic ground motion for complex two-dimensional structures. First we consider a sedimentary basin in the Friuli region, and we model strong motion records from an aftershock of the 1976 earthquake. Then we simulate the ground motion caused in Rome by the 1915, Fucino (Italy) earthquake, and we compare our modelling with the damage distribution observed in the town. Finally we deal with the interpretation of ground motion recorded in Mexico City, as a consequence of earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The synthetic signals explain the major characteristics (relative amplitudes, spectral amplification, frequency content) of the considered seismograms, and the space distribution of the available macroseismic data. For the sedimentary basin in the Friuli area, parametric studies demonstrate the relevant sensitivity of the computed ground motion to small changes in the subsurface topography of the sedimentary basin, and in the velocity and quality factor of the sediments. The total energy of ground motion, determined from our numerical simulation in Rome, is in very good agreement with the distribution of damage observed during the Fucino earthquake. For epicentral distances in the range 50km-100km, the source location and not only the local soil conditions control the local effects. For Mexico City, the observed ground motion can be explained as resonance effects and as excitation of local surface waves, and the theoretical and the observed maximum spectral amplifications are very similar. In general, our numerical simulations permit the estimate of the maximum and average spectral amplification for specific sites, i.e. are a very powerful tool for accurate micro-zonation. (author). 38 refs, 19 figs, 1 tab

  16. A high-resolution ambient seismic noise model for Europe (United States)

    Kraft, Toni


    measurement precision (i.e. earthquake location), while considering this extremely complex boundary condition. To solve this problem I have developed a high-resolution ambient seismic noise model for Europe. The model is based on land-use data derived from satellite imagery by the EU-project CORINE in a resolution of 100x100m. The the CORINE data consists of several land-use classes, which, besides others, contain: industrial areas, mines, urban fabric, agricultural areas, permanent corps, forests and open spaces. Additionally, open GIS data for highways, and major and minor roads and railway lines were included from the OpenStreetMap project ( This data was divided into three classes that represent good, intermediate and bad ambient conditions of the corresponding land-use class based on expert judgment. To account for noise propagation away from its source a smoothing operator was applied to individual land-use noise-fields. Finally, the noise-fields were stacked to obtain an European map of ambient noise conditions. A calibration of this map with data of existing seismic stations Europe allowed me to estimate the expected noise level in actual ground motion units for the three ambient noise condition classes of the map. The result is a high-resolution ambient seismic noise map, that allows the network designer to make educated predictions on the expected noise level for arbitrary location in Europe. The ambient noise model was successfully tested in several network optimization projects in Switzerland and surrounding countries and will hopefully be a valuable contribution to improving the data quality of microseismic monitoring networks in Europe.

  17. Deterministic seismic hazard parameters and engineering risk implications for the Hong Kong region (United States)

    Chandler, A. M.; Chan, L. S.; Lam, N. T. K.


    The paper reviews and compares recent regional studies evaluating the seismic hazard parameters required to assess the seismic risk to engineering construction in the Coastal Region of South China (CRSC) including Hong Kong (HK). The review establishes that the CRSC, and in particular the offshore seismic belt, has mean earthquake magnitude recurrence intervals (MRIs) or return periods that are 2-3 times shorter than those in the eastern United States (EUS), with which the HK region has been compared. An ensemble of realistic design-level earthquake events suitable for defining the regional seismic hazard and for undertaking engineering risk assessment is then formulated, in the form of deterministic magnitude-distance pairs associated with earthquake magnitudes having a range of MRIs, and the significance of the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude is highlighted. Next, the scenario earthquake events have been used to predict the expected levels of peak design ground motions (for bedrock) in the HK region. The approximate method proposed here indicates that peak (effective) ground accelerations may reasonably be estimated to be around 10% g for 500-year earthquake events and 15-20% g for 1000-year events. However, the predicted ground motions arising from design-level earthquake events indicate large uncertainties arising from the attenuation equations. The uncertainties arise from both epistemic (event-to-event) and aleatory (site-to-site) considerations. These uncertainties represent the greatest source of errors in defining the seismic hazard for engineering design purposes. Further research is required to define the attenuation characteristics of ground motions for the CRSC, across a range of parameters including ground displacement and velocity as well as acceleration. It is further found that the Chinese earthquake building code gives a reasonably conservative estimate of seismic demand for the region, and is quite consistent with results from both

  18. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.


    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  19. 3-D seismic tomography of the lithosphere and its geodynamic implications beneath the northeast India region (United States)

    Raoof, J.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Koulakov, I.; Kayal, J. R.


    We have evolved 3-D seismic velocity structures in northeast India region and its adjoining areas to understand the geodynamic processes of Indian lithosphere that gently underthrusts under the Himalayas and steeply subducts below the Indo-Burma Ranges. The region is tectonically buttressed between the Himalayan arc to the north and the Indo-Burmese arc to the east. The tomographic image shows heterogeneous structure of lithosphere depicting different tectonic blocks. Though our results are limited to shallower depth (0-90 km), it matches well with the deeper continuation of lithospheric structure obtained in an earlier study. We observe low-velocity structure all along the Eastern Himalayas down to 70 km depth, which may be attributed to deeper roots/thicker crust developed by underthrusting of Indian plate. Parallel to this low-velocity zone lies a high-velocity zone in foredeep region, represents the Indian lithosphere. The underthrusting Indian lithosphere under the Himalayas as well as below the Indo-Burma Ranges is well reflected as a high-velocity dipping structure. The buckled up part of bending Indian plate in study region, the Shillong Plateau-Mikir Hills tectonic block, is marked as a high-velocity structure at shallower depth. The Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, tectonic block where the two arcs meet, is identified as a high-velocity structure. The Bengal Basin, tectonic block to the south of Shillong Plateau, shows low velocity due to its thicker sediments. Based on the tomographic image, a schematic model is presented to elucidate the structure and geodynamics of Indian lithosphere in study region.

  20. Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity (United States)

    Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Michael, A.J.


    Three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs velocity models for the Loma Prieta region were developed from the inversion of local travel time data (21,925 P arrivals and 1,116 S arrivals) from earthquakes, refraction shots, and blasts recorded on 1700 stations from the Northern California Seismic Network and numerous portable seismograph deployments. The velocity and density models and microearthquake hypocenters reveal a complex structure that includes a San Andreas fault extending to the base of the seismogenic layer. A body with high Vp extends the length of the rupture and fills the 5 km wide volume between the Loma Prieta mainshock rupture and the San Andreas and Sargent faults. We suggest that this body controls both the pattern of background seismicity on the San Andreas and Sargent faults and the extent of rupture during the mainshock, thus explaining how the background seismicity outlined the along-strike and depth extent of the mainshock rupture on a different fault plane 5 km away. New aftershock focal mechanisms, based on three-dimensional ray tracing through the velocity model, support a heterogeneous postseismic stress field and can not resolve a uniform fault normal compression. The subvertical (or steeply dipping) San Andreas fault and the fault surfaces that ruptured in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are both parts of the San Andreas fault zone and this section of the fault zone does not have a single type of characteristic event.

  1. Crustal deformation and seismic measurements in the region of McDonald Observatory, West Texas. [Texas and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico (United States)

    Dorman, H. J.


    The arrival times of regional and local earthquakes and located earthquakes in the Basin and Range province of Texas and in the adjacent areas of Chihuahua, Mexico from January 1976 to August 1980 at the UT'NASA seismic array are summarized. The August 1931 Texas earthquake is reevaluated and the seismicity and crustal structure of West Texas is examined. A table of seismic stations is included.

  2. Benchmark hydrogeophysical data from a physical seismic model (United States)

    Lorenzo, Juan M.; Smolkin, David E.; White, Christopher; Chollett, Shannon R.; Sun, Ting


    Theoretical fluid flow models are used regularly to predict and analyze porous media flow but require verification against natural systems. Seismic monitoring in a controlled laboratory setting at a nominal scale of 1:1000 in the acoustic frequency range can help improve fluid flow models as well as elasto-granular models for uncompacted saturated-unsaturated soils. A mid-scale sand tank allows for many highly repeatable, yet flexible, experimental configurations with different material compositions and pump rates while still capturing phenomena such as patchy saturation, flow fingering, or layering. The tank (˜6×9×0.44 m) contains a heterogeneous sand pack (1.52-1.7 phi). In a set of eight benchmark experiments the water table is raised inside the sand body at increments of ˜0.05 m. Seismic events (vertical component) are recorded by a pseudowalkaway 64-channel accelerometer array (20 Hz-20 kHz), at 78 kS/s, in 100- scan stacks so as to optimize signal-to-noise ratio. Three screened well sites monitor water depth (+/-3 mm) inside the sand body. Seismic data sets in SEG Y format are publicly downloadable from the internet (, in order to allow comparisons of different seismic and fluid flow analyses. The capillary fringe does not appear to completely saturate, as expected, because the interpreted compressional-wave velocity values remain so low (<210 m/s). Even at the highest water levels there is no large seismic impedance contrast across the top of the water table to generate a clear reflector. Preliminary results indicate an immediate need for several additional experiments whose data sets will be added to the online database. Future benchmark data sets will grow with a control data set to show conditions in the sand body before water levels rise, and a surface 3D data set. In later experiments, buried sensors will help reduce seismic attenuation effects and in-situ saturation sensors will provide calibration values.

  3. Seismic Monitoring Capabilities of the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Warning System (United States)

    Saurel, Jean-Marie; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, Christa; Crespo, Hector; McNamara, Dan; Huerfano, Victor


    Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions during the past 500 years. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Hundreds of thousands are currently threatened along the Caribbean coastlines. In 2005 the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established. It recommended the following minimum seismic performance standards for the detection and analysis of earthquakes: 1) Earthquake detection within 1 minute, 2) Minimum magnitude threshold = M4.5, and 3) Initial hypocenter error of data availability of the contributing stations at the US Tsunami Warning Centers, the Puerto Rico Seismic Network and IRIS. As of early 2014, 99 of the proposed stations are being contributed by national, regional and international seismological institutions. Recent network additions (Nicaragua, Colombia, Mexico, Cayman Islands, and Venezuela) have reduced detection threshold, time and location error throughout much of the Caribbean region and Central America. Specifically, earthquakes (>M4.0) can be detected within 1 minute throughout much of the Caribbean. The remaining exceptions to this standard for detection are portions of northern South America and Mexico. Another performance criterion is 90% data availability. Currently 60-70% of the stations meet this standard. The presentation will further report on the status of the CARIBE EWS seismic capability for the timely and accurate detection and analysis of earthquakes for tsunami warning purposes for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions.

  4. Integration of onshore and offshore seismological data to study the seismicity of the Calabrian Region (United States)

    D'Alessandro, Antonino; Guerra, Ignazio; D'Anna, Giuseppe; Gervasi, Anna; Harabaglia, Paolo; Luzio, Dario; Stellato, Gilda


    The Pollino Massif marks the transition from the Southern Appenninic to the Calabrian Arc. On the western side it is characterized by a moderately sized seismicity (about 9 M > 4 events in the last 50 years), well documented in the last 400 years. The moment tensor solutions available in this area yields, mainly, normal faults with coherent Southern Appeninic trend. This remains true also for the events that are localized on the calabrian side of Pollino, South of the massif. In most of the Sibari plane, seismic activity is very scarce, while it is again rather marked on its southeastern corner, both onshore and offshore. The above observations point to the perspective that the stress field of a vast portion of Northern Calabria still resembles that of the Southern Appenines. In this frame, it becomes important to investigate the offshore seismicity of the Sibari Gulf and the deformation pattern within the Sibari Plane. The latter might function as a hinge to transfer the deformation of the extensional fault system in the Pollino area to a different offshore fault system. Since return times of larger events might be very long, we need to investigate the true seismic potential of the offshore faults and to verify whether they are truly strike slip or if they could involve relevant thrust or normal components, that would add to the risk that of potentially associated tsunamis. Despite their importance in the understanding of the seismotectonic processes taking place in the Southern Appenninic - Calabrian Arc border and surrounding areas, the seismicity and the seismogenic volumes of the Sibari Gulf until now has not been well characterized due to the lack of offshore seismic stations. The seismicity of the Calabrian is monitored by the Italian National Seismic Network (INSN) managed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and by the Calabrian Regional Seismic Network (CRSN) managed by the University of Calabria. Both the network comprise only on

  5. Seismic hazard of the Kivu rift (western branch, East African Rift system): new neotectonic map and seismotectonic zonation model (United States)

    Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi Mwene Ntabwoba, Stanislas; Fiama Bondo, Silvanos; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder


    The first detailed probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa. This region, which forms the central part of the Western Rift Branch, is one of the most seismically active part of the East African rift system. It was already integrated in large scale seismic hazard assessments, but here we defined a finer zonation model with 7 different zones representing the lateral variation of the geological and geophysical setting across the region. In order to build the new zonation model, we compiled homogeneous cross-border geological, neotectonic and sismotectonic maps over the central part of East D.R. Congo, SW Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and NW Tanzania and defined a new neotectonic sheme. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue, compiled on the basis of various local and global earthquake catalogues. The use of macroseismic epicenters determined from felt earthquakes allowed to extend the time-range back to the beginning of the 20th century, spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. From this initial catalogue, a catalogue of 359 events from 1956 to 2015 and with M > 4.4 has been extracted for the seismic hazard assessment. The seismotectonic zonation includes 7 seismic source areas that have been defined on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined using both the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method (Kijko & Smit aue program). Seismic hazard maps have been computed with the Crisis 2012 software using 3 different attenuation laws. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates (Delvaux et al., 2016). They vary laterally in function of the tectonic

  6. Ground magnetic studies along a regional seismic-reflection profile across Bare Mountain, Crater Flat and Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langenheim, V.E.; Ponce, D.A.


    Ground magnetic data were collected along a 26-km-long regional seismic-reflection profile in southwest Nevada that starts in the Amargosa Desert, crosses Bare Mountain, Crater Flat and Yucca Mountain, and ends in Midway Valley. Parallel ground magnetic profiles were also collected about 100 m to either side of the western half of the seismic-reflection line. The magnetic data indicate that the eastern half of Crater Flat is characterized by closely-spaced faulting (1--2 km) in contrast to the western half of Crater Flat. Modeling of the data indicates that the Topopah Spring Tuff is offset about 250 m on the Solitario Canyon fault and about 50 m on the Ghost Dance fault. These estimates of fault offset are consistent with seismic-reflection data and geologic mapping. A broad magnetic high of about 500--600 nT is centered over Crater Flat. Modeling of the magnetic data indicates that the source of this high is not thickening and doming of the Bullfrog Tuff, but more likely lies below the Bullfrog Tuff. Possible source lithologies for this magnetic high include altered argillite of the Eleana Formation, Cretaceous or Tertiary intrusions, and mafic sills

  7. Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City (United States)

    Ding, Z.; Romanelli, F.; Chen, Y. T.; Panza, G. F.

    Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake.

  8. Realistic modeling of seismic wave ground motion in Beijing City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Z.; Chen, Y.T.; Romanelli, F.; Panza, G.F.


    Advanced algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of the observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic 3-component seismograms have been computed in the Xiji area and in Beijing town. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible of the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone (Xiji area) associated to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and with the records in Beijing town, associated to the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake. (author)

  9. DOE International Collaboration; Seismic Modeling and Simulation Capability Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, Lara D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Settgast, Randolph R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)


    The following report describes the development and exercise of a new capability at LLNL to model complete, non-linear, seismic events in 3-dimensions with a fully-coupled soil structure interaction response. This work is specifically suited to nuclear reactor design because this design space is exempt from the Seismic Design requirements of International Building Code (IBC) and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) [4,2]. Both IBC and ASCE-7 exempt nuclear reactors because they are considered “structures that require special consideration” and their design is governed only by “other regulations”. In the case of nuclear reactors, the regulations are from both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [10] and ASCE 43 [3]. This current framework of design guidance, coupled to this new and evolving capability to provide high fidelity design solutions as presented in this report, enables the growing field of Performance-Based Design (PBD) for nuclear reactors subjected to earthquake ground motions.

  10. Seismic Event Location at Regional and Teleseismic Distances (United States)


    seismograms that are identified below as either PmP or Pg. 52 1 1 1 •0 * 04& Ekibastuz 0 0 0 A BAY 0] Chcmcx 1 50 Chemex 2 U Karaganda A Degelen 0...Figure 3 ( chemex 1, 872450700, at KKL). cally to see the effects on the synthetic seismograms. We started with the Leith (1987) crustal model and

  11. New Insights on Mt. Etna's Crust and Relationship with the Regional Tectonic Framework from Joint Active and Passive P-Wave Seismic Tomography (United States)

    Díaz-Moreno, A.; Barberi, G.; Cocina, O.; Koulakov, I.; Scarfì, L.; Zuccarello, L.; Prudencio, J.; García-Yeguas, A.; Álvarez, I.; García, L.; Ibáñez, J. M.


    In the Central Mediterranean region, the production of chemically diverse volcanic products (e.g., those from Mt. Etna and the Aeolian Islands archipelago) testifies to the complexity of the tectonic and geodynamic setting. Despite the large number of studies that have focused on this area, the relationships among volcanism, tectonics, magma ascent, and geodynamic processes remain poorly understood. We present a tomographic inversion of P-wave velocity using active and passive sources. Seismic signals were recorded using both temporary on-land and ocean bottom seismometers and data from a permanent local seismic network consisting of 267 seismic stations. Active seismic signals were generated using air gun shots mounted on the Spanish Oceanographic Vessel `Sarmiento de Gamboa'. Passive seismic sources were obtained from 452 local earthquakes recorded over a 4-month period. In total, 184,797 active P-phase and 11,802 passive P-phase first arrivals were inverted to provide three different velocity models. Our results include the first crustal seismic active tomography for the northern Sicily area, including the Peloritan-southern Calabria region and both the Mt. Etna and Aeolian volcanic environments. The tomographic images provide a detailed and complete regional seismotectonic framework and highlight a spatially heterogeneous tectonic regime, which is consistent with and extends the findings of previous models. One of our most significant results was a tomographic map extending to 14 km depth showing a discontinuity striking roughly NW-SE, extending from the Gulf of Patti to the Ionian Sea, south-east of Capo Taormina, corresponding to the Aeolian-Tindari-Letojanni fault system, a regional deformation belt. Moreover, for the first time, we observed a high-velocity anomaly located in the south-eastern sector of the Mt. Etna region, offshore of the Timpe area, which is compatible with the plumbing system of an ancient shield volcano located offshore of Mt. Etna.

  12. Geophysical Observatory in Kamchatka region for monitoring of phenomena connected with seismic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Uyeda


    Full Text Available Regular monitoring of some geophysical parameters in association with seismicity has been carried out since last year at the Japan-Russian Complex Geophysical Observatory in the Kamchatka region. This observatory was organized in connection with the ISTC project in Russia and was motivated by the results of the FRONTIER/RIKEN and FRONTIER/NASDA research projects in Japan. The main purpose of the observations is to investigate the electromagnetic and acoustic phenomena induced by the lithosphere processes (especially by seismic activity. The seismicity of the Kamchatka area is analyzed and a description of the observatory equipment is presented. At present, the activity of the observatory includes the seismic (frequency range ∆F = 0.5 – 40 Hz and meteorological recordings, together with seismo-acoustic (∆F = 30 – 1000 Hz and electromagnetic observations: three-component magnetic ULF variations ( ∆F = 0.003 – 30 Hz, three-component electric potential variations ( ∆F 1.0 Hz, and VLF transmitter’s signal perturbations ( ∆F ~ 10 – 40 kHz.

  13. Monitoring transient changes within overpressured regions of subduction zones using ambient seismic noise. (United States)

    Chaves, Esteban J; Schwartz, Susan Y


    In subduction zones, elevated pore fluid pressure, generally linked to metamorphic dehydration reactions, has a profound influence on the mechanical behavior of the plate interface and forearc crust through its control on effective stress. We use seismic noise-based monitoring to characterize seismic velocity variations following the 2012 Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake [M w (moment magnitude) 7.6] that we attribute to the presence of pressurized pore fluids. Our study reveals a strong velocity reduction (~0.6%) in a region where previous work identified high forearc pore fluid pressure. The depth of this velocity reduction is constrained to be below 5 km and therefore not the result of near-surface damage due to strong ground motions; rather, we posit that it is caused by fracturing of the fluid-pressurized weakened crust due to dynamic stresses. Although pressurized fluids have been implicated in causing coseismic velocity reductions beneath the Japanese volcanic arc, this is the first report of a similar phenomenon in a subduction zone setting. It demonstrates the potential to identify pressurized fluids in subduction zones using temporal variations of seismic velocity inferred from ambient seismic noise correlations.

  14. Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model (United States)

    Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.


    We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

  15. Preliminary Interpretations of Multi-Channel Seismic Reflection and Magnetic Data on North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey (United States)

    Gözde Okut Toksoy, Nigar; Kurt, Hülya; İşseven, Turgay


    The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is 1600 km long, right lateral strike-slip fault nearly E-W elongated between Karlıova in the east and Saros Gulf in the west. NAF splays into two major strands near the west of Bolu city as Northern and Southern strands. Northern strand passes Sapanca Lake and extends towards west and reaches Marmara Sea through the Gulf of Izmit. The area has high seismicity; 1999 Kocaeli (Mw=7.4) and 1999 Düzce (Mw=7.2) earthquakes caused approximately 150 km long surface rupture between the Gulf of Izmit and Bolu. The rupture has four distinct fault segments as Gölcük, Sapanca, Sakarya, and Karadere from west to east. In this study multi-channel seismic and magnetic data are collected for the first time on the Sapanca Segment to investigate the surficial and deeper geometry of the NAF. Previously, the NAF in the eastern Marmara region is investigated using by paleo-seismological data from trenches on the surface rupture of fault or the geomorphological data (Lettis et al., 2000; Dikbaş and Akyüz, 2010) which have shallower depth targets. Crustal structure and seismic velocities for Central Anatolia and eastern Marmara regions are obtained from deeper targeted refraction data (Gürbüz et al., 1992). However, their velocity models do not have the spatial resolution to determine details of the fault zone structure. Multi-channel seismic and magnetic data in this study were acquired on two N-S directed profiles crossing NAF perpendicularly near Kartepe on the western part of the Sapanca Lake in October 2016. The receiver interval is 5 m, shot interval is 5-10 m, and the total length of the profiles are approximately 1400 m. Buffalo Gun is used as a seismic source for deeper penetration. Conventional seismic reflection processing steps are applied to the data. These are geometry definition, editing, filtering, static correction, velocity analysis and deconvolution, stacking and migration. Echos seismic software package in Geophysical Department

  16. Physical Accuracy of Q Models of Seismic Attenuation (United States)

    Morozov, I. B.


    Accuracy of theoretical models is a required prerequisite for any type of seismic imaging and interpretation. Among all geophysical disciplines, the theory of seismic and tidal attenuation is the least developed, and most practical studies use viscoelastic models based on empirical Q factors. To simplify imaging and inversions, the Qs are often approximated as frequency-independent or following a power law with frequency. However, simplicity of inversion should not outweigh the problematic physical accuracy of such models. Typical images of spatially-variable crustal and mantle Qs are "apparent," analogously to pseudo-depth, apparent-resistivity images in electrical imaging. Problems with Q models can be seen from controversial general observations present in many studies; for example: 1) In global Q models, bulk attenuation is much lower than the shear one throughout the whole Earth. This is considered a fundamental relation for the Earth; nevertheless, it is also very peculiar physically and suggests a negative Q for the Lamé modulus. This relation is also not supported by most first-principle models of materials and laboratory studies. 2) The Q parameterization requires that the entire outer core of the Earth is assigned zero attenuation, despite its large volume, presence of viscosity and shear deformation in free oscillations. 3) In laboratory and surface-wave studies, the bulk and shear Qs can be different for different wave modes, different sample sizes boundary conditions on the surface. Similarly, the Qs measured from body-S, Love, Lg, or ScS waves may not equal each other. 4) In seismic coda studies, the Q is often found to be linearly (or even faster) increasing with frequency. Such character of energy dissipation is controversial physically, but can be readily explained as an artifact of inaccurately-known geometrical spreading. To overcome the physical inaccuracies and apparent character of seismic attenuation models, mechanical theories of materials

  17. Combined Gravimetric-Seismic Crustal Model for Antarctica (United States)

    Baranov, Alexey; Tenzer, Robert; Bagherbandi, Mohammad


    The latest seismic data and improved information about the subglacial bedrock relief are used in this study to estimate the sediment and crustal thickness under the Antarctic continent. Since large parts of Antarctica are not yet covered by seismic surveys, the gravity and crustal structure models are used to interpolate the Moho information where seismic data are missing. The gravity information is also extended offshore to detect the Moho under continental margins and neighboring oceanic crust. The processing strategy involves the solution to the Vening Meinesz-Moritz's inverse problem of isostasy constrained on seismic data. A comparison of our new results with existing studies indicates a substantial improvement in the sediment and crustal models. The seismic data analysis shows significant sediment accumulations in Antarctica, with broad sedimentary basins. According to our result, the maximum sediment thickness in Antarctica is about 15 km under Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. The Moho relief closely resembles major geological and tectonic features. A rather thick continental crust of East Antarctic Craton is separated from a complex geological/tectonic structure of West Antarctica by the Transantarctic Mountains. The average Moho depth of 34.1 km under the Antarctic continent slightly differs from previous estimates. A maximum Moho deepening of 58.2 km under the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica confirmed the presence of deep and compact orogenic roots. Another large Moho depth in East Antarctica is detected under Dronning Maud Land with two orogenic roots under Wohlthat Massif (48-50 km) and the Kottas Mountains (48-50 km) that are separated by a relatively thin crust along Jutulstraumen Rift. The Moho depth under central parts of the Transantarctic Mountains reaches 46 km. The maximum Moho deepening (34-38 km) in West Antarctica is under the Antarctic Peninsula. The Moho depth minima in East Antarctica are found under the Lambert Trench (24

  18. Monitoring of seismic events from a specific source region using a single regional array: A case study (United States)

    Gibbons, S. J.; Kværna, T.; Ringdal, F.


    In the monitoring of earthquakes and nuclear explosions using a sparse worldwide network of seismic stations, it is frequently necessary to make reliable location estimates using a single seismic array. It is also desirable to screen out routine industrial explosions automatically in order that analyst resources are not wasted upon detections which can, with a high level of confidence, be associated with such a source. The Kovdor mine on the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia is the site of frequent industrial blasts which are well recorded by the ARCES regional seismic array at a distance of approximately 300 km. We describe here an automatic procedure for identifying signals which are likely to result from blasts at the Kovdor mine and, wherever possible, for obtaining single array locations for such events. Carefully calibrated processing parameters were chosen using measurements from confirmed events at the mine over a one-year period for which the operators supplied Ground Truth information. Phase arrival times are estimated using an autoregressive method and slowness and azimuth are estimated using broadband f{-} k analysis in fixed frequency bands and time-windows fixed relative to the initial P-onset time. We demonstrate the improvement to slowness estimates resulting from the use of fixed frequency bands. Events can be located using a single array if, in addition to the P-phase, at least one secondary phase is found with both an acceptable slowness estimate and valid onset-time estimate. We evaluate the on-line system over a twelve month period; every event known to have occured at the mine is detected by the process and 32 out of 53 confirmed events were located automatically. The remaining events were classified as “very likely” Kovdor events and were subsequently located by an analyst. The false alarm rate is low; only 84 very likely Kovdor events were identified during the whole of 2003 and none of these were subsequently located at a large distance from

  19. Seismic assessment and performance of nonstructural components affected by structural modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hur, Jieun; Althoff, Eric; Sezen, Halil; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc [Ohio State University, Columbus (United States)


    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) requires a large number of simulations to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structural and nonstructural components in nuclear power plants. The effect of structural modeling and analysis assumptions on dynamic analysis of 3D and simplified 2D stick models of auxiliary buildings and the attached nonstructural components is investigated. Dynamic characteristics and seismic performance of building models are also evaluated, as well as the computational accuracy of the models. The presented results provide a better understanding of the dynamic behavior and seismic performance of auxiliary buildings. The results also help to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated with modeling and analysis of simplified numerical models of structural and nonstructural components subjected to seismic shaking on the predicted seismic failure probabilities of these systems.

  20. Structure of the subduction zone beneath the Wellington region, New Zealand , from passive seismic recordings (United States)

    Karalliyadda, S.; Savage, M. K.; Hall, C.; Stern, T. A.; Henrys, S. A.; Wech, A.; Townend, J.; Carrizales, A.


    nearby stations. Smaller earthquakes yield more scattered fast directions. Delay times average 0.18 s and range from 0.02 to 0.7 seconds from earthquakes that extend from 5 to 180 km depth. However, delay times do not increase with depth, suggesting that most waveforms are re-split in the upper crust. Stacked seismic noise cross correlation functions obtained from broadband and short period stations alike exhibit coherent signals to distances of 80 km. Packets of coherent energy travel with speeds of between 5.2 km/s and 1.3 km/s, with the fastest group coherent to 60 km on the 2-stations. This analysis suggests that such high-frequency seismometers can usefully record surface waves with periods much longer than the natural period of the seismometers. We therefore expect to be able to use these data to determine surface wave velocity models of the uppermost 5 km of the crust, which will complement the controlled source profiles in the region.

  1. Seismic Full Waveform Modeling & Imaging in Attenuating Media (United States)

    Guo, Peng

    Seismic attenuation strongly affects seismic waveforms by amplitude loss and velocity dispersion. Without proper inclusion of Q parameters, errors can be introduced for seismic full waveform modeling and imaging. Three different (Carcione's, Robertsson's, and the generalized Robertsson's) isotropic viscoelastic wave equations based on the generalized standard linear solid (GSLS) are evaluated. The second-order displacement equations are derived, and used to demonstrate that, with the same stress relaxation times, these viscoelastic formulations are equivalent. By introducing separate memory variables for P and S relaxation functions, Robertsson's formulation is generalized to allow different P and S wave stress relaxation times, which improves the physical consistency of the Qp and Qs modelled in the seismograms.The three formulations have comparable computational cost. 3D seismic finite-difference forward modeling is applied to anisotropic viscoelastic media. The viscoelastic T-matrix (a dynamic effective medium theory) relates frequency-dependent anisotropic attenuation and velocity to reservoir properties in fractured HTI media, based on the meso-scale fluid flow attenuation mechanism. The seismic signatures resulting from changing viscoelastic reservoir properties are easily visible. Analysis of 3D viscoelastic seismograms suggests that anisotropic attenuation is a potential tool for reservoir characterization. To compensate the Q effects during reverse-time migration (RTM) in viscoacoustic and viscoelastic media, amplitudes need to be compensated during wave propagation; the propagation velocity of the Q-compensated wavefield needs to be the same as in the attenuating wavefield, to restore the phase information. Both amplitude and phase can be compensated when the velocity dispersion and the amplitude loss are decoupled. For wave equations based on the GSLS, because Q effects are coupled in the memory variables, Q-compensated wavefield propagates faster than


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available A feasibility study on the seismic design of nuclear reactor buildings with application of a seismic isolation system is introduced. After the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake in Japan of 1995, seismic isolation technologies have been widely employed for commercial buildings. Having become a mature technology, seismic isolation systems can be applied to NPP facilities in areas of high seismicity. Two reactor buildings are discussed, representing the PWR and BWR buildings in Japan, and the application of seismic isolation systems is discussed. The isolation system employing rubber bearings with a lead plug positioned (LRB is examined. Through a series of seismic response analyses using the so-named standard design earthquake motions covering the design basis earthquake motions obtained for NPP sites in Japan, the responses of the seismic isolated reactor buildings are evaluated. It is revealed that for the building structures examined herein: (1 the responses of both isolated buildings and isolating LRBs fulfill the specified design criteria; (2 the responses obtained for the isolating LRBs first reach the ultimate condition when intensity of motion is 2.0 to 2.5 times as large as that of the design-basis; and (3 the responses of isolated reactor building fall below the range of the prescribed criteria.

  3. Block-and-fault dynamics modelling of the Himalayan frontal arc: Implications for seismic cycle, slip deficit, and great earthquakes (United States)

    Vorobieva, Inessa; Mandal, Prantik; Gorshkov, Alexander


    A numerical block-and-fault dynamics model (BAFD) of the Himalayan frontal arc, India is developed to understand the long-term patterns of strain accumulation and occurrences of great earthquakes in the Himalaya. The morphostructural scheme outlines twelve major crustal blocks, and external driving motions are prescribed using GPS data. The BAFD model reproduces essential features of the geodynamics and seismicity of the Himalayan frontal arc. The locations of the large synthetic earthquakes and their maximum magnitudes are consistent with the information available from the instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues. We model the evolution of the slip deficit and seismic cycles for different sections across the Himalaya frontal arc. The modelled seismic cycles are found to be varying from 700 to 2100 years and are in good agreement with the return periods estimates from the recent paleoseismological studies. We notice that the accumulation of the slip deficit depends not only on the rate of shortening, rheology and structure but also on the dynamics of the confining crustal blocks. Further, we observe that tectonic motions of the Shillong plateau and Assam basin microplates play a significant role in controlling the seismicity patterns of the Bhutan block, which resulted in the decreased seismic activity, and increased rate of aseismic displacement. Thus, we infer that the regional seismicity patterns are a consequence of dynamics of the entire regional fault-and-block system rather than dynamics of individual fault. Our BAFD modelling predicts the maximum earthquake hazard associated with future large/great earthquakes for the central Himalayan gap region, which lies between the 1905 Kangra and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake ruptures, but relatively less hazard in Kashmir and Assam.

  4. Numerical modeling of intraplate seismicity with a deformable loading plate (United States)

    So, B. D.; Capitanio, F. A.


    We use finite element modeling to investigate on the stress loading-unloading cycles and earthquakes occurrence in the plate interiors, resulting from the interactions of tectonic plates along their boundary. We model a visco-elasto-plastic plate embedding a single or multiple faults, while the tectonic stress is applied along the plate boundary by an external loading visco-elastic plate, reproducing the tectonic setting of two interacting lithospheres. Because the two plates deform viscously, the timescale of stress accumulation and release on the faults is self-consistently determined, from the boundary to the interiors, and seismic recurrence is an emerging feature. This approach overcomes the constraints on recurrence period imposed by stress (stress-drop) and velocity boundary conditions, while here it is unconstrained. We illustrate emerging macroscopic characteristics of this system, showing that the seismic recurrence period τ becomes shorter as Γ and Θ decreases, where Γ = ηI/ηL the viscosity ratio of the viscosities of the internal fault-embedded to external loading plates, respectively, and Θ = σY/σL the stress ratio of the elastic limit of the fault to far-field loading stress. When the system embeds multiple, randomly distributed faults, stress transfer results in recurrence period deviations, however the time-averaged recurrence period of each fault show the same dependence on Γ and Θ, illustrating a characteristic collective behavior. The control of these parameters prevails even when initial pre-stress was randomly assigned in terms of the spatial arrangement and orientation on the internal plate, mimicking local fluctuations. Our study shows the relevance of macroscopic rheological properties of tectonic plates on the earthquake occurrence in plate interiors, as opposed to local factors, proposing a viable model for the seismic behavior of continent interiors in the context of large-scale, long-term deformation of interacting tectonic

  5. Bathymetry, controlled source seismic and gravity observations of the Mendeleev ridge; implications for ridge structure, origin, and regional tectonics (United States)

    Dove, Dayton; Coakley, Bernard; Hopper, John; Kristoffersen, Yngve


    Multichannel seismic (MCS), seismic refraction, and gravity data collected down the flank of the Chukchi Plateau, but predominantly over the Mendeleev Ridge have been processed and interpreted to describe the crustal style of the ridge, as well as the structural history. These results provide constraints on the origin of the ridge, and the tectonic evolution of the Amerasian Basin. MCS images reveal two primary sediment sequences separated by an unconformity that persists across the entire Mendeleev Ridge. The basement and lower sediment sequence exhibit pervasive normal faulting. The upper sequence is laterally conformable and not effected by faulting, thus the regional unconformity dividing the two sequences is interpreted to mark the end of extensional deformation. Modeling of sonobuoy seismic refraction data reveals upper crustal P-wave velocities ranging from 3.5 to 6.4kms-1 approximately 5km into the basement. The velocity structure of the Mendeleev Ridge is consistent with either a volcanic rifted continental margin, or an oceanic plateau origin. Observed gravity anomalies over the ridge are reproduced by a model consisting of bathymetry, sediment and basement horizons from the MCS data and a single crustal layer of 2.86gcm-3. This result is consistent with homogeneous, mafic crust. The similar velocity and density structures of the Mendeleev and Alpha ridges is consistent with a model where the two ridges are contiguous and share a common geological origin. Gravity modelling over the transition between the Chukchi Plateau and the Mendeleev Ridge suggests the two features have differing compositions and distinct emplacement histories. Three tectonic models are presented for the origin of the Alpha Mendeleev Ridge (AMR) that satisfy constraints set by this and previous studies: (1) a rifted volcanic continental margin, (2) an oceanic plateau formed at a spreading centre-perpendicular to the AMR and (3) an oceanic plateau formed at a spreading centre

  6. Land-use changes as uncertainties in landslide hazard assessment. An application in Vrancea Seismic Region (United States)

    Popovici, A.; Kucsicsa, Gh.; Balteanu, D.; Sandric, I.; Micu, M.


    Vrancea Seismic Region, covering a surface of 8 000 km2 in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians, represents one of Europe's most intensely affected by slope and channel processes area. Due to its geographical framework (a diverse relief, of mountains, hills and depressions) and socio-political situation (several changes of property due to historical circumstances), it shows also an increased predisposition for land-use changes. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the uncertainties that land-use (considered an independent variable within a landslide susceptibility assessment) changes may trigger within the assessment of landslide hazard, potentially amplifying the uncertainties already induced by climate change. Besides historical maps and CORINE-derived land use distributions, statistical data were used to run two modeling applications (CLUE-S model and Idrisi Taiga Land Change Modeler, who predicts new land-use covers using Markov Chain or Multiple Layer Perception). Based on certain driving forces, like bio-physical drivers (elevation, slope, geology, soil, climatic conditions etc.) but also on socio-economic drivers (population density, distance to towns, distance to roads, people employed in different economical sectors, livestock density, land-property type, farms type, etc.) predicted land-use changes pattern is studied through statistical analysis (logistic regression) backed-up by continuous expert-opinion analysis. The results, represented by land-use simulated maps (2010-2050), once validated (using land-use maps derived from 2007 to 2011 Landsat images, according to CORINE methodology), will give important information on both the suitable methodology for such simulation and on the landslide hazard assessment, a vital stage in the elaboration of landslide risk management strategies.

  7. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013? (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John


    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  8. Seismic base isolation: Elastomer characterization, bearing modeling and system response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulak, R.F.; Wang, C.Y.; Hughes, T.H.


    This paper discusses several major aspects of seismic base isolation systems that employ laminated elastomer bearings. Elastomer constitutive models currently being used to represent the nonlinear elastic and hysteretic behavior are discussed. Some aspects of mechanical characterization testing of elastomers is presented along with representative tests results. The development of a finite element based mesh generator for laminated elastomer bearings is presented. Recent advances in the simulation of base isolated structures to earthquake motions are presented along with a sample problem. 13 refs., 19 figs., 1 tab

  9. Seismic base isolation: Elastomer characterization, bearing modeling and system response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulak, R.F.; Wang, C.Y.; Hughes, T.H.


    This paper discusses several major aspects of seismic base isolation systems that employ laminated elastomer bearings. Elastomer constitutive models currently being used to represent the nonlinear elastic and hysteretic behavior are discussed. Some aspects of mechanical characterization testing of elastomers is presented along with representative tests results. The development of a finite element based mesh generator for laminated elastomer bearings is presented. Recent advances in the simulation of base isolated structures to earthquake motions are presented along with a sample problem. 13 refs., 19 figs., 1 tab.

  10. A Gravity data along LARSE (Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiment) Line II, Southern California (United States)

    Wooley, R.J.; Langenheim, V.E.


    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a detailed gravity study along part of the Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiment (LARSE) transect across the San Fernando Basin and Transverse Ranges to help characterize the structure underlying this area. 249 gravity measurements were collected along the transect and to augment regional coverage near the profile. An isostatic gravity low of 50-60 mGal reflects the San Fernando-East Ventura basin. Another prominent isostatic gravity with an amplitude of 30 mGal marks the Antelope Valley basin. Gravity highs occur over the Santa Monica Mountains and the Transverse Ranges. The highest isostatic gravity values coincide with outcrops of Pelona schist.

  11. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: 2. Dynamic implications of geodynamic simulations validated with laboratory models

    KAUST Repository

    van Dinther, Y.


    The physics governing the seismic cycle at seismically active subduction zones remains poorly understood due to restricted direct observations in time and space. To investigate subduction zone dynamics and associated interplate seismicity, we validate a continuum, visco-elasto-plastic numerical model with a new laboratory approach (Paper 1). The analogous laboratory setup includes a visco-elastic gelatin wedge underthrusted by a rigid plate with defined velocity-weakening and -strengthening regions. Our geodynamic simulation approach includes velocity-weakening friction to spontaneously generate a series of fast frictional instabilities that correspond to analog earthquakes. A match between numerical and laboratory source parameters is obtained when velocity-strengthening is applied in the aseismic regions to stabilize the rupture. Spontaneous evolution of absolute stresses leads to nucleation by coalescence of neighboring patches, mainly occurring at evolving asperities near the seismogenic zone limits. Consequently, a crack-, or occasionally even pulse-like, rupture propagates toward the opposite side of the seismogenic zone by increasing stresses ahead of its rupture front, until it arrests on a barrier. The resulting surface displacements qualitatively agree with geodetic observations and show landward and, from near the downdip limit, upward interseismic motions. These are rebound and reversed coseismically. This slip increases adjacent stresses, which are relaxed postseismically by afterslip and thereby produce persistent seaward motions. The wide range of observed physical phenomena, including back-propagation and repeated slip, and the agreement with laboratory results demonstrate that visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models with rate-dependent friction form a new tool that can greatly contribute to our understanding of the seismic cycle at subduction zones.

  12. Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal Siting in a Highly Seismic Region on the Mexican Pacific Coast (United States)

    Zaczek, Yannick; Lambert, Nicolas

    A new LNG terminal should be built on the Pacific coast of Mexico, one of the most seismic regions in the world. According to International codes, a siting process must be carried out to insure the feasibility of the project, which involves, in a first step, a data collection of all existing documents related to geology, seismicity, and geotechnics. As a second step, a seismo-tectonic study has been performed, with localisation of active faults on or close to the site (aerial and satellite imagery, geophysical investigations) and determination of OBE & SSE levels. Afterwards, the site was globally characterised, with a first geotechnical report, dealing with liquefaction risks, typical soil layers, and general foundation methodology. The general site layout, the general stability of buildings, the detailed soil investigations, and the detailed foundation design are performed in the phases as described in this paper.

  13. Pattern recognition and lithological interpretation of collocated seismic and magnetotelluric models using self-organizing maps (United States)

    Bauer, K.; Muñoz, G.; Moeck, I.


    Joint interpretation of models from seismic tomography and inversion of magnetotelluric (MT) data is an efficient approach to determine the lithology of the subsurface. Statistical methods are well established but were developed for only two types of models so far (seismic P velocity and electrical resistivity). We apply self-organizing maps (SOMs), which have no limitations in the number of parameters considered in the joint interpretation. Our SOM method includes (1) generation of data vectors from the seismic and MT images, (2) unsupervised learning, (3) definition of classes by algorithmic segmentation of the SOM using image processing techniques and (4) application of learned knowledge to classify all data vectors and assign a lithological interpretation for each data vector. We apply the workflow to collocated P velocity, vertical P-velocity gradient and resistivity models derived along a 40 km profile around the geothermal site Groß Schönebeck in the Northeast German Basin. The resulting lithological model consists of eight classes covering Cenozoic, Mesozoic and Palaeozoic sediments down to 5 km depth. There is a remarkable agreement between the litho-type distribution from the SOM analysis and regional marker horizons interpolated from sparse 2-D industrial reflection seismic data. The most interesting features include (1) characteristic properties of the Jurassic (low P-velocity gradients, low resistivity values) interpreted as the signature of shales, and (2) a pattern within the Upper Permian Zechstein layer with low resistivity and increased P-velocity values within the salt depressions and increased resistivity and decreased P velocities in the salt pillows. The latter is explained in our interpretation by flow of less dense salt matrix components to form the pillows while denser and more brittle evaporites such as anhydrite remain in place during the salt mobilization.

  14. Seismic Structure of Southern African Cratons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Mohammad Youssof Ahmad; Artemieva, Irina; Levander, Alan


    Cratons are extremely stable continental crustal areas above thick depleted lithosphere. These regions have remained largely unchanged for more than 2.5 Ga. This study presents a new seismic model of the seismic structure of the crust and lithospheric mantle constrained by seismic receiver...

  15. Physical Model Method for Seismic Study of Concrete Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Roşca


    Full Text Available The study of the dynamic behaviour of concrete dams by means of the physical model method is very useful to understand the failure mechanism of these structures to action of the strong earthquakes. Physical model method consists in two main processes. Firstly, a study model must be designed by a physical modeling process using the dynamic modeling theory. The result is a equations system of dimensioning the physical model. After the construction and instrumentation of the scale physical model a structural analysis based on experimental means is performed. The experimental results are gathered and are available to be analysed. Depending on the aim of the research may be designed an elastic or a failure physical model. The requirements for the elastic model construction are easier to accomplish in contrast with those required for a failure model, but the obtained results provide narrow information. In order to study the behaviour of concrete dams to strong seismic action is required the employment of failure physical models able to simulate accurately the possible opening of joint, sliding between concrete blocks and the cracking of concrete. The design relations for both elastic and failure physical models are based on dimensional analysis and consist of similitude relations among the physical quantities involved in the phenomenon. The using of physical models of great or medium dimensions as well as its instrumentation creates great advantages, but this operation involves a large amount of financial, logistic and time resources.

  16. Global seismic waveform modeling in the whole Mars - a preliminary study - (United States)

    Toyokuni, G.; Ishihara, Y.; Takenaka, H.


    We construct a numerical scheme (spherical 2.5-D FDM) to calculate probable global seismic wave propagation for the whole Mars models. Using our modeling sheme, we have done preliminary study of Martian seismic waveform modeling in the whole Mars with probable 3-D Martian interior structure.

  17. Coupling a Basin Modeling and a Seismic Code using MOAB

    KAUST Repository

    Yan, Mi


    We report on a demonstration of loose multiphysics coupling between a basin modeling code and a seismic code running on a large parallel machine. Multiphysics coupling, which is one critical capability for a high performance computing (HPC) framework, was implemented using the MOAB open-source mesh and field database. MOAB provides for code coupling by storing mesh data and input and output field data for the coupled analysis codes and interpolating the field values between different meshes used by the coupled codes. We found it straightforward to use MOAB to couple the PBSM basin modeling code and the FWI3D seismic code on an IBM Blue Gene/P system. We describe how the coupling was implemented and present benchmarking results for up to 8 racks of Blue Gene/P with 8192 nodes and MPI processes. The coupling code is fast compared to the analysis codes and it scales well up to at least 8192 nodes, indicating that a mesh and field database is an efficient way to implement loose multiphysics coupling for large parallel machines.

  18. A new tomographic image on the Philippine Sea Slab beneath Tokyo - Implication to seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan region - (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Nakagawa, S.; Ishikawa, M.; Sato, H.; Kasahara, K.; Kimura, H.; Honda, R.


    In central Japan, the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo metropolitan region. Devastating M8-class earthquakes occurred on the upper surface of the Philippine Sea plate (SPS), examples of which are the Genroku earthquake of 1703 (magnitude M=8.0) and the Kanto earthquake of 1923 (M=7.9), which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions although it is smaller than the megathrust type M8-class earthquakes. This great earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. The M7+ earthquakes may occur either on the upper surface or intra slab of PSP. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates the next great M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (1 trillion US$) economic loss at worst case if it occur beneath northern Tokyo bay with M7.3. However, the estimate is based on a source fault model by conventional studies about the PSP geometry. To evaluate seismic hazard due to the great quake we need to clarify the geometry of PSP and also the Pacific palate (PAP) that subducs beneath PSP. We identify those plates with use of seismic tomography and available deep seismic reflection profiling and borehole data in southern Kanto area. We deployed about 300 seismic stations in the greater Tokyo urban region under the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. We obtain clear P- and S- wave velocity (Vp and Vs) tomograms which show a clear image of PSP and PAP. A depth to the top of PSP, 20 to 30 kilometer beneath northern part of Tokyo bay, is about 10 km shallower than previous estimates based on the distribution of seismicity (Ishida, 1992). This shallower plate geometry changes estimations of strong ground motion for seismic hazards analysis within the Tokyo

  19. KFUPM-KAUST Red Sea model: Digital viscoelastic depth model and synthetic seismic data set

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shuhail, Abdullatif A.


    The Red Sea is geologically interesting due to its unique structures and abundant mineral and petroleum resources, yet no digital geologic models or synthetic seismic data of the Red Sea are publicly available for testing algorithms to image and analyze the area\\'s interesting features. This study compiles a 2D viscoelastic model of the Red Sea and calculates a corresponding multicomponent synthetic seismic data set. The models and data sets are made publicly available for download. We hope this effort will encourage interested researchers to test their processing algorithms on this data set and model and share their results publicly as well.

  20. Simple model for post seismic ionospheric disturbances above an earthquake epicentre and along connecting magnetic field lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Marchand


    Full Text Available The detection of ionospheric disturbances associated with seismic activity is one of the main objectives of the DEMETER micro-satellite. Its scientific payload provides a comprehensive set of electron and ion measurements. The present work describes a simple model of post-seismic disturbances in the ionosphere above the epicentre. Following a major seism, the neutral atmosphere is assumed to be subject to an acoustic pulse propagating upward, to high altitudes. By coupling this perturbation to the two-dimensional ionospheric model SAMI2 it is then possible to calculate the variations in a number of plasma parameters in the plume region and along connecting magnetic field lines, for an event of representative magnitude. The feasibility of identifying the signature of seismic events from satellite observations is then assessed in view of representative DEMETER measurements and of their natural variability.

  1. Real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosion using broadband analyses of regional seismic stations (United States)

    Prastowo, T.; Madlazim


    This preliminary study aims to propose a new method of real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosions by analyzing broadband seismic waveforms acquired from a network of regional seismic stations. Signal identification generated by a nuclear test was differentiated from natural sources of either earthquakes or other natural seismo-tectonic events by verifying crucial parameters, namely source depth, type of first motion, and P-wave domination of the broadband seismic wavesunder consideration. We examined and analyzed a recently hypothetical nuclear test performed by the North Koreangovernment that occurred on September 3, 2017 as a vital point to study. From spectral analyses, we found that the source of corresponding signals associated with detonations of the latest underground nuclear test was at a much shallower depth below the surface relatively compared with that of natural earthquakes, the suspected nuclear explosions produced compressional waves with radially directed outward from the source for their first motions, and the waves were only dominated by P-components. The results are then discussed in the context of potential uses of the proposed methodology for human-induced disaster early warning system and/or the need of rapid response purposes for minimizing the disaster risks.

  2. Geological and geodynamic reconstruction of the East Barents megabasin from analysis of the 4-AR regional seismic profile (United States)

    Startseva, K. F.; Nikishin, A. M.; Malyshev, N. A.; Nikishin, V. A.; Valyushcheva, A. A.


    The article considers problems related to the geological structure and geodynamic history of sedimentary basins of the Barents Sea. We analyze new seismic survey data obtained in 2005-2016 to refine the geological structure model for the study area and to render it in more detail. Based on the data of geological surveys in adjacent land (Novaya Zemlya, Franz Josef Land, and Kolguev Island), drilling, and seismic survey, we identified the following geodynamic stages of formation of the East Barents megabasin: Late Devonian rifting, the onset of postrift sinking and formation of the deep basin in Carboniferous-Permian, unique (in terms of extent) and very rapid sedimentation in the Early Triassic, continued thermal sinking with episodes of inversion vertical movements in the Middle Triassic-Early Cretaceous, folded pressure deformations that formed gently sloping anticlines in the Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic, and glacial erosion in the Quaternary. We performed paleoreconstructions for key episodes in evolution of the East Barents megabasin based on the 4-AR regional profile. From the geometric modeling results, we estimated the value of total crustal extension caused by Late Devonian rifting for the existing crustal model.

  3. Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis. (United States)

    Collignon, Marine; Hammer, Øyvind; Fallahi, Mohammad J.; Lupi, Matteo; Schmid, Daniel W.; Alwi, Husein; Hadi, Soffian; Mazzini, Adriano


    The 29th May 2006, gas water and mud breccia started to erupt at several localities along the Watukosek fault system in the Sidoarjo Regency in East Java Indonesia. The most prominent eruption site, named Lusi, is still active and the emitted material now covers a surface of nearly 7 km2, resulting in the displacement of 60.000 people (up to date). Due to its social and economic impacts, as well as its spectacular dimensions, the Lusi eruption still attracts the attention of international media and scientists. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126), many efforts were made to develop a quasi-constant monitoring of the site and the regional areas. Several studies attempted to predict the flow rate evolution or ground deformation, resulting in either overestimating or underestimating the longevity of the eruption. Models have failed because Lusi is not a mud volcano but a sedimentary hosted hydrothermal system that became apparent after the M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake. Another reason is because such models usually assume that the flow will decrease pacing the overpressure reduction during the deflation of the chamber. These models typically consider a closed system with a unique chamber that is not being recharged. Overall the flow rate has decreased over the past ten years, although it has been largely fluctuating with monthly periods of higher mud breccia discharge. Monitoring of the eruption has revealed that numerous anomalous events are temporally linked to punctual events such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Nevertheless, the quantification of these events has never been investigated in details. In this study, we present a compilation of anomalous events observed at the Lusi site during the last 10 years. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then statistically compare the displacement, recorded at different seismic stations around Lusi, with the regional and global earthquakes catalogue to test the probability that an earthquake

  4. Dynamical characterization of the 1982-2015 seismicity of Aswan region (Egypt) (United States)

    Telesca, Luciano; Fat-Elbary, Raafat; Stabile, Tony A.; Haggag, Mohamed; Elgabry, Mohamed


    In this study, the seismicity that occurred in Aswan region from 1982 to 2015 is investigated using robust statistical methodologies. The completeness magnitude, estimated by using two different methods (MAXC and GFT) is 2.5 for the whole catalog with b 1.07. By using the expectation maximization algorithm, two depth classes of events were identified with a threshold at about 12 km. The events deeper and shallower than the threshold could be likely generated by the same mechanism: the loading/unloading operation of the Lake Nasser reservoir. We suggest that the shallow seismicity occurs on shallow small fractures in correspondence of the intersection of N-S faults with E-W faults, which may form a minor pull-apart basin. The deep events mainly occur along the right-lateral, strike-slip, E-W Kalabsha fault and the seismicity is characterized by mainshock-aftershocks sequences that mask the annual periodicity if not properly aftershock-depleted. Indeed, before applying the declustering on the seismic catalog, the analysis of the time-clustering properties of the shallow earthquakes reveals already the presence of annual modulation that is not evident in the time dynamics of the deep earthquakes. Furthermore, the shallow events are featured by the Allan Factor scaling exponent (measuring the strength of the time-clustering in an earthquake sequence) lower than that of the deep events, indicating a tendency of the time dynamics of the shallow earthquakes to behave more regularly than the deep ones. The detrended fluctuation analysis of the magnitude series suggests that the earthquake series are weakly persistent, characterized by the tendency of events of similar value of magnitude to follow each other.

  5. Forecasting Italian seismicity through a spatio-temporal physical model: importance of considering time-dependency and reliability of the forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hakimhashemi


    Full Text Available We apply here a forecasting model to the Italian region for the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity based on a smoothing Kernel function, Coulomb stress variations, and a rate-and-state friction law. We tested the feasibility of this approach, and analyzed the importance of introducing time-dependency in forecasting future events. The change in seismicity rate as a function of time was estimated by calculating the Coulomb stress change imparted by large earthquakes. We applied our approach to the region of Italy, and used all of the cataloged earthquakes that occurred up to 2006 to generate the reference seismicity rate. For calculation of the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, we estimated the rate-and-state stress transfer imparted by all of the ML≥4.0 earthquakes that occurred during 2007 and 2008. To validate the results, we first compared the reference seismicity rate with the distribution of ML≥1.8 earthquakes since 2007, using both a non-declustered and a declustered catalog. A positive correlation was found, and all of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 82% and 87% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. Furthermore, 95% of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 27% and 47% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. For the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, the number of events with locations in the regions with a seismicity rate increase was 11% more than in the regions with a seismicity rate decrease.

  6. Active fault characterization throughout the Caribbean and Central America for seismic hazard modeling (United States)

    Styron, Richard; Pagani, Marco; Garcia, Julio


    The region encompassing Central America and the Caribbean is tectonically complex, defined by the Caribbean plate's interactions with the North American, South American and Cocos plates. Though active deformation over much of the region has received at least cursory investigation the past 50 years, the area is chronically understudied and lacks a modern, synoptic characterization. Regardless, the level of risk in the region - as dramatically demonstrated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake - remains high because of high-vulnerability buildings and dense urban areas home to over 100 million people, who are concentrated near plate boundaries and other major structures. As part of a broader program to study seismic hazard worldwide, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation is currently working to quantify seismic hazard in the region. To this end, we are compiling a database of active faults throughout the region that will be integrated into similar models as recently done in South America. Our initial compilation hosts about 180 fault traces in the region. The faults show a wide range of characteristics, reflecting the diverse styles of plate boundary and plate-margin deformation observed. Regional deformation ranges from highly localized faulting along well-defined strike-slip faults to broad zones of distributed normal or thrust faulting, and from readily-observable yet slowly-slipping structures to inferred faults with geodetically-measured slip rates >10 mm/yr but essentially no geomorphic expression. Furthermore, primary structures such as the Motagua-Polochic Fault Zone (the strike-slip plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in Guatemala) display strong along-strike slip rate gradients, and many other structures are undersea for most or all of their length. A thorough assessment of seismic hazard in the region will require the integration of a range of datasets and techniques and a comprehensive characterization of epistemic uncertainties driving

  7. Regional seismic stratigraphy and controls on the Quaternary evolution of the Cape Hatteras region of the Atlantic passive margin, USA (United States)

    Mallinson, D.J.; Culver, S.J.; Riggs, S.R.; Thieler, E.R.; Foster, D.; Wehmiller, J.; Farrell, K.M.; Pierson, J.


    Seismic and core data, combined with amino acid racemization and strontium-isotope age data, enable the definition of the Quaternary stratigraphic framework and recognition of geologic controls on the development of the modern coastal system of North Carolina, U.S.A. Seven regionally continuous high amplitude reflections are defined which bound six seismic stratigraphic units consisting of multiple regionally discontinuous depositional sequences and parasequence sets, and enable an understanding of the evolution of this margin. Data reveal the progressive eastward progradation and aggradation of the Quaternary shelf. The early Pleistocene inner shelf occurs at a depth of ca. 20-40 m beneath the western part of the modern estuarine system (Pamlico Sound). A mid- to outer shelf lowstand terrace (also early Pleistocene) with shelf sand ridge deposits comprising parasequence sets within a transgressive systems tract, occurs at a deeper level (ca. 45-70 m) beneath the modern barrier island system (the Outer Banks) and northern Pamlico Sound. Seismic and foraminiferal paleoenvironmental data from cores indicate the occurrence of lowstand strandplain shoreline deposits on the early to middle Pleistocene shelf. Middle to late Pleistocene deposits occur above a prominent unconformity and marine flooding surface that truncates underlying units, and contain numerous filled fluvial valleys that are incised into the early and middle Pleistocene deposits. The stratigraphic framework suggests margin progradation and aggradation modified by an increase in the magnitude of sea-level fluctuations during the middle to late Pleistocene, expressed as falling stage, lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. Thick stratigraphic sequences occur within the middle Pleistocene section, suggesting the occurrence of high capacity fluvial point sources debouching into the area from the west and north. Furthermore, the antecedent topography plays a significant role in the evolution

  8. Effects of Induced Stress on Seismic Forward Modelling and Inversion (United States)

    Tromp, Jeroen; Trampert, Jeannot


    We demonstrate how effects of induced stress may be incorporated in seismic modelling and inversion. Our approach is motivated by the accommodation of prestress in global seismology. Induced stress modifies both the equation of motion and the constitutive relationship. The theory predicts that induced pressure linearly affects the unstressed isotropic moduli with a slope determined by their adiabatic pressure derivatives. The induced deviatoric stress produces anisotropic compressional and shear wavespeeds; the latter result in shear-wave splitting. For forward modelling purposes, we determine the weak form of the equation of motion under induced stress. In the context of the inverse problem, we determine induced stress sensitivity kernels, which may be used for adjoint tomography. The theory is illustrated by considering 2D propagation of SH waves and related Fréchet derivatives based on a spectral-element method.

  9. Development of a structural model for the nonlinear shear deformation behavior of a seismic isolator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Han; Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Yoo, Bong


    The seismic excitation test results of an isolated test structure for artificial time history excitation are summarized for structure models of the isolated structure and isolation bearing. To simulate the response characteristic of isolated structure, shear hysteresis curves of isolators are analyzed. A simple analysis model is developed representing the actual dynamic behaviors of the test model, and the seismic responses using the simple model of the isolated structure and structure models, which are developed such as linear and bilinear models for isolators, are performed and compared with those of the seismic tests. The developed bilinear model is well applicable only to large shear strain area of LLRB

  10. Aftershock seismicity of the 2010 Maule Mw=8.8 Chile, earthquake: Correlation between co-seismic slip models and aftershock distribution? (United States)

    Rietbrock, A.; Ryder, I.; Hayes, G.; Haberland, C.; Comte, D.; Roecker, S.


    The 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile (Mw=8.8) earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events. Here we present locations, magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first -2 months of aftershocks, recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock. Using automatically-determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association, we are able to detect over 30,000 events in the time period analyzed. To further increase the location accuracy, we systematically searched for potential S-wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2D velocity model. Additionally, we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence. We find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km. Focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting, with occasional normal faulting events. Increased activity is seen in the outer-rise region of the Nazca plate, predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area. Further down-dip, a second band of clustered seismicity, showing mainly thrust motion, is located at depths of 40–45 km. By comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution, we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip, surrounding high-slip regions of the mainshock.

  11. Evaluating hot spot-ridge interaction in the Atlantic from regional-scale seismic observations (United States)

    Gaherty, James B.; Dunn, Robert A.


    We probe variations in mantle temperature, composition, and fabric along hot spot-influenced sections of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), using surface waves from nearby ridge earthquakes recorded on broadband island-based seismic stations. We invert frequency-dependent phase delays from these events to estimate one-dimensional mean shear velocity and radial shear anisotropy profiles in the upper 200 km of the mantle within two seafloor age intervals: 5-10 Ma and 15-20 Ma. Mean shear velocity profiles correlate with apparent hot spot flux: lithosphere formed near the low-flux Ascension hot spot is characterized by high mantle velocities, while the MAR near the higher-flux Azores hot spot has lower velocities. The impact of the high-flux Iceland hot spot on mantle velocities along the nearby MAR is strongly asymmetric: the lithospheric velocities near the Kolbeinsey ridge are moderately slow, while velocities near the Reykjanes ridge estimated in previous studies are much slower. Within each region the increase in shear velocity with age is consistent with a half-space cooling model, and the velocity variations observed between Ascension, the Azores, and Kolbeinsey are consistent with approximately ±75° potential-temperature variation among these sites. In comparison, the Reykjanes lithosphere is too slow to result purely from half-space cooling of a high-temperature mantle source. We speculate that the anomalously low shear velocities within the lithosphere produced at the Reykjanes ridge result from high asthenospheric temperatures of +50-75 K combined with ˜12% (by volume) gabbro retained in the mantle due to the imbalance between high hot spot-influenced melt production and relatively inefficient melt extraction along the slow spreading Reykjanes. Radial shear anisotropy in the upper 150 km also indicates an apparent hot spot influence: mantle fabric near Ascension is quite weak, consistent with previous models of anisotropy produced by corner flow during slow

  12. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region (United States)

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.


    are necessary. Temporary seismic networks have been installed in several Central Asian cities (Bishkek and Karakol, Kyrgyzstan; Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Tashkent, Uzbekistan) within the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA), a regional program of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The empirically estimated site effects have already helped to improve real-time risk scenarios for Bishkek and will be applied to other major cities. - A crucial requirement for disaster risk reduction involves the analysis of the vulnerability of existing building inventories. Whereas traditional approaches are very time- and cost-consuming, and even impossible given the high rate of urbanization in Central Asian capitals, our integrated approach is based on satellite remote sensing and ground-based omni-directional imaging, providing building inventories and thus structural vulnerability over large areas (EMCA, GEM-IDCT). All mentioned activities are carried out within the framework of cooperation between GFZ and regional national institutes, in particular the Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences. Altogether, this comprehensive and long-term risk analyses and research program will lead to a better understanding of the coupling of endogene and exogene processes and the identification of their impact on society.

  13. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn


    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusse...

  14. Offshore double-planed shallow seismic zone in the NE Japan forearc region revealed by sP depth phases recorded by regional networks (United States)

    Gamage, S.S.N.; Umino, N.; Hasegawa, A.; Kirby, S.H.


    We detected the sP depth phase at small epicentral distances of about 150 km or more in the seismograms of shallow earthquakes in the NE Japan forearc region. The focal depths of 1078 M > 3 earthquakes that occurred from 2000 to 2006 were precisely determined using the time delay of the sP phase from the initial P-wave arrival. The distribution of relocated hypocentres clearly shows the configuration of a double-planed shallow seismic zone beneath the Pacific Ocean. The upper plane has a low dip angle near the Japan Trench, increasing gradually to ???30?? at approximately 100 km landward of the Japan Trench. The lower plane is approximately parallel to the upper plane, and appears to be the near-trench counterpart of the lower plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. The distance between the upper and lower planes is 28-32 km, which is approximately the same as or slightly smaller than that of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. Focal mechanism solutions of the relocated earthquakes are determined from P-wave initial motion data. Although P-wave initial motion data for these offshore events are not ideally distributed on the focal sphere, we found that the upper-plane events that occur near the Japan Trench are characterized by normal faulting, whereas lower-plane events are characterized by thrust faulting. This focal mechanism distribution is the opposite to that of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. The characteristics of these focal mechanisms for the shallow and deep doubled-planed seismic zones can be explained by a bending-unbending model of the subducting Pacific plate. Some of relocated earthquakes took place in the source area of the 1933 Mw8.4 Sanriku earthquake at depths of 10-23 km. The available focal mechanisms for these events are characterized by normal faulting. Given that the 1933 event was a large normal-fault event that occurred along a fault plane dipping landward, the

  15. Development of core seismic analysis models for KNGR fuel assemblies associated with 0.3 g seismic loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.; Lee, J.S.


    In order to evaluate the structural integrity of fuel assemblies associated with 0.3 g seismic loads in the Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), detailed fuel assembly model and core series models with seven and 17 assemblies have been developed using the super-element capability of the MSC/NASTRAN code. The detailed fuel assembly model has been verified by comparison with the analysis results and test results. Non-linear transient analysis has been performed on the core series models. The detailed fuel assembly model and core series models for the KNGR developed with the MSC/NASTRAN code have a good correlation with test results and in-reactor impact behavior of fuel assemblies under applied seismic loads. Since the time histories considered in the transient analysis were generated from a seismic analysis of the System 80+ reactor internals that is reference plant of the KNGR based on 0.3 g ground motion, it is necessary to study further the evaluation for the KNGR fuel assembly and the models using the site specific time histories. It is expected that the further evaluation and some modifications can be performed effectively with the aid of the models developed in this study

  16. A tri-stage cluster identification model for accurate analysis of seismic catalogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Nanda


    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a tri-stage cluster identification model that is a combination of a simple single iteration distance algorithm and an iterative K-means algorithm. In this study of earthquake seismicity, the model considers event location, time and magnitude information from earthquake catalog data to efficiently classify events as either background or mainshock and aftershock sequences. Tests on a synthetic seismicity catalog demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model in terms of accuracy percentage (94.81% for background and 89.46% for aftershocks. The close agreement between lambda and cumulative plots for the ideal synthetic catalog and that generated by the proposed model also supports the accuracy of the proposed technique. There is flexibility in the model design to allow for proper selection of location and magnitude ranges, depending upon the nature of the mainshocks present in the catalog. The effectiveness of the proposed model also is evaluated by the classification of events in three historic catalogs: California, Japan and Indonesia. As expected, for both synthetic and historic catalog analysis it is observed that the density of events classified as background is almost uniform throughout the region, whereas the density of aftershock events are higher near the mainshocks.

  17. The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.


    New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

  18. Co- and post-seismic shallow fault physics from near-field geodesy, seismic tomography, and mechanical modeling (United States)

    Nevitt, J.; Brooks, B. A.; Catchings, R.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Chan, J. H.; Glennie, C. L.; Ericksen, T. L.; Madugo, C. M.


    The physics governing near-surface fault slip and deformation are largely unknown, introducing significant uncertainty into seismic hazard models. Here we combine near-field measurements of surface deformation from the 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake with high-resolution seismic imaging and finite element models to investigate the effects of rupture speed, elastic heterogeneities, and plasticity on shallow faulting. We focus on two sites that experienced either predominantly co-seismic or post-seismic slip. We measured surface deformation with mobile laser scanning of deformed vine rows within 300 m of the fault at 1 week and 1 month after the event. Shear strain profiles for the co- and post-seismic sites are similar, with maxima of 0.012 and 0.013 and values exceeding 0.002 occurring within 26 m- and 18 m-wide zones, respectively. That the rupture remained buried at the two sites and produced similar deformation fields suggests that permanent deformation due to dynamic stresses did not differ significantly from the quasi-static case, which might be expected if the rupture decelerated as it approached the surface. Active-source seismic surveys, 120 m in length with 1 m geophone/shot spacing, reveal shallow compliant zones of reduced shear modulus. For the co- and post-seismic sites, the tomographic anomaly (Vp/Vs > 5) at 20 m depth has a width of 80 m and 50 m, respectively, much wider than the observed surface displacement fields. We investigate this discrepancy with a suite of finite element models in which a planar fault is buried 5 m below the surface. The model continuum is defined by either homogeneous or heterogeneous elastic properties, with or without Drucker-Prager plastic yielding, with properties derived from lab testing of similar near-surface materials. We find that plastic yielding can greatly narrow the surface displacement zone, but that the width of this zone is largely insensitive to changes in the elastic structure (i.e., the presence of a

  19. Crustal Models Assessment in Western Part of Romania Employing Active Seismic and Seismologic Methods (United States)

    Bala, Andrei; Toma-Danila, Dragos; Tataru, Dragos; Grecu, Bogdan


    In the years 1999 - 2000 two regional seismic refraction lines were performed within a close cooperation with German partners from University of Karlsruhe. One of these lines is Vrancea 2001, with 420 km in length, almost half of them recorded in Transylvanian Basin. The structure of the crust along the seismic line revealed a very complicated crustal structure beginning with Eastern Carpathians and continuing in the Transylvanian Basin until Medias. As a result of the development of the National Seismic Network in the last ten years, more than 100 permanent broadband stations are now continuously operating in Romania. Complementary to this national dataset, maintained and developed in the National Institute for Earth Physics, new data emerged from the temporary seismologic networks established during the joint projects with European partners in the last decades. The data gathered so far is valuable both for seismology purposes and crustal structure studies, especially for the western part of the country, where this kind of data were sparse until now. Between 2009 and 2011, a new reference model for the Earth’s crust and mantle of the European Plate was defined through the NERIES project from existing data and models. The database gathered from different kind of measurements in Transylvanian Basin and eastern Pannonian Basin were included in this NERIES model and an improved and upgraded model of the Earth crust emerged for western part of Romania. Although the dataset has its origins in several periods over the last 50 years, the results are homogeneous and they improve and strengthen our image about the depth of the principal boundaries in the crust. In the last chapter two maps regarding these boundaries are constructed, one for mid-crustal boundary and one for Moho. They were build considering all the punctual information available from different sources in active seismic and seismology which are introduced in the general maps from the NERIES project for

  20. Seismic structure of the western U.S. mantle and its relation to regional tectonic and magmatic activity (United States)

    Schmandt, Brandon

    Vigorous convective activity in the western U.S. mantle has long been inferred from the region's widespread intra-plate crustal deformation, volcanism, and high elevations, but the specific form of convective activity and the degree and nature of lithospheric involvement have been strongly debated. I design a seismic travel-time tomography method and implement it with seismic data from the EarthScope Transportable Array and complementary arrays to constrain three-dimensional seismic structure beneath the western U.S. Tomographic images of variations in compressional velocity, shear velocity, and the ratio of shear to compressional velocity in the western U.S. mantle to a depth of 1000 km are produced. Using these results I investigate mantle physical properties, Cenozoic subduction history, and the influence of small-scale lithospheric convection on regional tectonic and magmatic activity, with particular focus on southern California and the Pacific Northwest. This dissertation includes previously published co-authored material. Chapter II presents a travel-time tomography method I designed and first implemented with data from southern California and the surrounding southwestern U.S. The resulting images provide a new level of constraint on upper mantle seismic anomalies beneath the Transverse Ranges, southern Great Valley, Salton Trough, and southwestern Nevada volcanic field. Chapter III presents tomographic images of the western U.S. mantle, identifies upper mantle volumes where partial melt is probable, and discusses implications of the apparently widespread occurrence of gravitational instabilities of continental lithsophere and the complex geometry and buoyancy of subducted ocean lithosphere imaged beneath the western U.S. In Chapter IV, tomography images are used in conjunction with geologic constraints on major transitions in crustal deformation and magmatism to construct a model for Pacific Northwest evolution since the Cretaceous. Accretion in the Pacific

  1. Mechanical tests for validation of seismic isolation elastomer constitutive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.


    High damping laminated elastomeric bearings are becoming the preferred device for seismic isolation of large buildings and structures, such as nuclear power plants. The key component of these bearings is a filled natural rubber elastomer. This material exhibits nonlinear behavior within the normal design range. The material damping cannot be classified as either viscous or hysteritic, but it seems to fall somewhere in between. This paper describes a series of tests that can be used to characterize the mechanical response of these elastomers. The tests are designed to determine the behavior of the elastomer in the time scale of the earthquake, which is typically from 30 to 60 seconds. The test results provide data for use in determining the material parameters associated with nonlinear constitutive models. 4 refs

  2. Mechanical tests for validation of seismic isolation elastomer constitutive models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.


    High damping laminated elastomeric bearings are becoming the preferred device for seismic isolation of large buildings and structures, such as nuclear power plants. The key component of these bearings is a filled natural rubber elastomer. This material exhibits nonlinear behavior within the normal design range. The material damping cannot be classified as either viscous or hysteritic, but it seems to fall somewhere in between. This paper describes a series of tests that can be used to characterize the mechanical response of these elastomers. The tests are designed to determine the behavior of the elastomer in the time scale of the earthquake, which is typically from 30 to 60 seconds. The test results provide data for use in determining the material parameters associated with nonlinear constitutive models. 4 refs.

  3. Mechanical tests for validation of seismic isolation elastomer constitutive models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.


    High damping laminated elastomeric bearings are becoming the preferred device for seismic isolation of large buildings and structures, such as nuclear power plants. The key component of these bearings is a filled natural rubber elastomer. This material exhibits nonlinear behavior within the normal design range. The material damping cannot be classified as either viscous or hysteritic, but it seems to fall somewhere in between. This paper describes a series of tests that can be used to characterize the mechanical response of these elastomers. The tests are designed to determine the behavior of the elastomer in the time scale of the earthquake, which is typically from 30 to 60 seconds. The test results provide data for use in determining the material parameters associated with nonlinear constitutive models. 4 refs.

  4. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z. [Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung (Indonesia); Susilo,; Efendi, Joni [Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG) (Indonesia)


    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  5. Mathematical model of the seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS) in non crystalline substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, L. C. C.; Yahya, N.; Daud, H.; Shafie, A. [Electromagnetic cluster, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, 31750 Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia)


    The mathematical model of seismic electromagnetic waves in non crystalline substances is developed and the solutions are discussed to show the possibility of improving the electromagnetic waves especially the electric field. The shear stress of the medium in fourth order tensor gives the equation of motion. Analytic methods are selected for the solutions written in Hansen vector form. From the simulated SEMS, the frequency of seismic waves has significant effects to the SEMS propagating characteristics. EM waves transform into SEMS or energized seismic waves. Traveling distance increases once the frequency of the seismic waves increases from 100% to 1000%. SEMS with greater seismic frequency will give seismic alike waves but greater energy is embedded by EM waves and hence further distance the waves travel.

  6. Recording of remote ground explosions in the Barents Region by the Seismic &Infrasound Integrated Array "Apatity" (United States)

    Vinogradov, Y.; Vinogradov, A.


    Since 1996, Kola Regional Seismological Centre (KRSC) has been engaged in infrasonic research and development. As part of this effort, a small-aperture microbarographic array was installed in conjunction with the seismic array near lake Imandra in the Kola Peninsula; the digitised data are transmitted in real time to the Processing Centre in Apatity; a data processing includes frequency-wavenumber analysis of the array recordings, estimation of phase velocity and azimuth, and evaluation of group velocity based on travel time calculations. The whole system was named the Seismic and InfraSound Integrated Array (SISIA) "Apatity". We present some examples of coupled recordings for selected events in the Kola Peninsula and adjacent regions. Explosions at large mines in the Barents region are routinely detected by the seismic systems installed in northern Fennoscandia and NW Russia. Seismic and infrasound emission from Khibiny, Pechenga, Kovdor and Olenegorsk mines in the Murmansk County are recording by SISIA "Apatity", and the presented 19 reference records show a high sensitivity of the system and a good accuracy for localisation of events within distance range of 30 to 220 km. A capability of the SISIA for detection of events in a remote zone (more than 220 km) was evaluated in case study performed in September 04 - 09, 2002. A set of explosions caused by ammunition demolition in Northern Finland, at a distance of 300 km from the array, have been successfully recorded in Apatity. Three separate phase arrivals for each of five events were identified as follows: the Tropospheric arrival (Iw), the Stratospheric arrival (Is) and the Thermospheric arrival (It). Was found, that all 15 estimates of azimuth are very consistent, ranging from 278 to 288 degrees (true azimuth is 284 degrees). The observed group velocities (average travel velocities) range between 326-336 m/s for the Iw arrival, 300-305 m/s for the Is arrival and 244-254 m/s for the It arrival. The phase

  7. Combined GPS and seismic monitoring of a 12-story structure in a region of induced seismicity in Oklahoma (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Soliman, M.; Kim, H.; Jaiswal, P.; Saunders, J. K.; Vernon, F.; Zhang, W.


    This work focuses on quantifying ground motions and their effects in Oklahoma near the location of the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, where seismicity has been increasing due to wastewater injection related to oil and natural gas production. Much of the building inventory in Oklahoma was constructed before the increase in seismicity and before the implementation of earthquake design and detailing provisions for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. We will use combined GPS/seismic monitoring techniques to measure ground motion in the field and the response of structures to this ground motion. Several Oklahoma State University buildings experienced damage due to the Pawnee earthquake. The USGS Shake Map product estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging from 0.12g to 0.15g at campus locations. We are deploying a high-rate GPS sensor and accelerometer on the roof and another accelerometer at ground level of a 12-story RC structure and at selected field sites in order to collect ambient noise data and nearby seismicity. The longer period recording characteristics of the GPS/seismic system are particularly well adapted to monitoring these large structures in the event of a significant earthquake. Gross characteristics of the structural system are described, which consists of RC columns and RC slabs in all stories. We conducted a preliminary structural analysis including modal analysis and response spectrum analysis based on a finite element (FE) simulation, which indicated that the period associated with the first X-axis bending, first torsional, and first Y-axis bending modes are 2.2 s, 2.1 s, and 1.8 s, respectively. Next, a preliminary analysis was conducted to estimate the range of expected deformation at the roof level for various earthquake excitations. The earthquake analysis shows a maximum roof displacement of 5 and 7 cm in the horizontal directions resulting from earthquake loads with PGA of 0.2g, well above the noise level of the combined GPS/seismic

  8. A global database of seismically and non-seismically triggered landslides for 2D/3D numerical modeling (United States)

    Domej, Gisela; Bourdeau, Céline; Lenti, Luca; Pluta, Kacper


    Landsliding is a worldwide common phenomenon. Every year, and ranging in size from very small to enormous, landslides cause all too often loss of life and disastrous damage to infrastructure, property and the environment. One main reason for more frequent catastrophes is the growth of population on the Earth which entails extending urbanization to areas at risk. Landslides are triggered by a variety and combination of causes, among which the role of water and seismic activity appear to have the most serious consequences. In this regard, seismic shaking is of particular interest since topographic elevation as well as the landslide mass itself can trap waves and hence amplify incoming surface waves - a phenomenon known as "site effects". Research on the topic of landsliding due to seismic and non-seismic activity is extensive and a broad spectrum of methods for modeling slope deformation is available. Those methods range from pseudo-static and rigid-block based models to numerical models. The majority is limited to 2D modeling since more sophisticated approaches in 3D are still under development or calibration. However, the effect of lateral confinement as well as the mechanical properties of the adjacent bedrock might be of great importance because they may enhance the focusing of trapped waves in the landslide mass. A database was created to study 3D landslide geometries. It currently contains 277 distinct seismically and non-seismically triggered landslides spread all around the globe whose rupture bodies were measured in all available details. Therefore a specific methodology was developed to maintain predefined standards, to keep the bias as low as possible and to set up a query tool to explore the database. Besides geometry, additional information such as location, date, triggering factors, material, sliding mechanisms, event chronology, consequences, related literature, among other things are stored for every case. The aim of the database is to enable

  9. Study on model of seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Zhiwei; Zhang Chunming; Wang Zhe; Zheng Jiye; Zhang Donghui


    After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the impact evaluation of nuclear power plants resulted from external events is required in China, and the 12th Five-Year Plan for Nuclear Safety also demands that the probability safety assessment of external events shall be developed before 2015. The earthquake is one of the most important external events which are essentially evaluated, and the seismic fragility is a key element in seismic PSA, while the fragility model is the basis of seismic fragility analysis. In this paper, the concept of seismic fragility was introduced, the seismic fragility model recommended by NRC and EPRI was studied, and the fragility model was derived. Then, the application example of the fragility model was given, and the effects of fragility due to randomness and uncertainty were discussed. The results show that a wealth of knowledge and experience is useful for the fragility analysis, which would reduce the uncertainty and gain access to practice. (authors)

  10. Forecasting Induced Seismicity Using Saltwater Disposal Data and a Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model (United States)

    Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L.


    The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. In this work, we demonstrate that the basement fault stressing conditions that drive seismicity rate evolution are related directly to the operational history of 958 saltwater disposal wells completed in the Arbuckle aquifer. We developed a fluid pressurization model based on the assumption that pressure changes are dominated by reservoir compressibility effects. Using injection well data, we established a detailed description of the temporal and spatial variability in stressing conditions over the 21.5-year period from January 1995 through June 2017. With this stressing history, we applied a numerical model based on rate-and-state friction theory to generate seismicity rate forecasts across a broad range of spatial scales. The model replicated the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. The behavior of the induced earthquake sequence was consistent with the prediction from rate-and-state theory that the system evolves toward a steady seismicity rate depending on the ratio between the current and background stressing rates. Seismicity rate transients occurred over characteristic timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. We found that our hydromechanical earthquake rate model outperformed observational and empirical forecast models for one-year forecast durations over the period 2008 through 2016.

  11. Quantitative analysis of impact-induced seismic signals by numerical modeling (United States)

    Güldemeister, Nicole; Wünnemann, Kai


    We quantify the seismicity of impact events using a combined numerical and experimental approach. The objectives of this work are (1) the calibration of the numerical model by utilizing real-time measurements of the elastic wave velocity and pressure amplitudes in laboratory impact experiments; (2) the determination of seismic parameters, such as quality factor Q and seismic efficiency k, for materials of different porosity and water saturation by a systematic parameter study employing the calibrated numerical model. By means of "numerical experiments" we found that the seismic efficiency k decreases slightly with porosity from k = 3.4 × 10-3 for nonporous quartzite to k = 2.6 × 10-3 for 25% porous sandstone. If pores are completely or partly filled with water, we determined a seismic efficiency of k = 8.2 × 10-5, which is approximately two orders of magnitude lower than in the nonporous case. By measuring the attenuation of the seismic wave with distance in our numerical experiments we determined the seismic quality factor Q to range between ∼35 for the solid quartzite and 80 for the porous dry targets. For water saturated target materials, Q is much lower, <10. The obtained values are in the range of literature values. Translating the seismic efficiency into seismic magnitudes we show that the seismic magnitude of an impact event is about one order of magnitude smaller considering a water saturated target in comparison to a solid or porous target. Obtained seismic magnitudes decrease linearly with distance to the point of impact and are consistent with empirical data for distances closer to the point of impact. The seismic magnitude decreases more rapidly with distance for a water saturated material compared to a dry material.

  12. Seismic structure beneath the Gulf of Aqaba and adjacent areas based on the tomographic inversion of regional earthquake data (United States)

    El Khrepy, Sami; Koulakov, Ivan; Al-Arifi, Nassir; Petrunin, Alexey G.


    We present the first 3-D model of seismic P and S velocities in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Gulf of Aqaba and surrounding areas based on the results of passive travel time tomography. The tomographic inversion was performed based on travel time data from ˜ 9000 regional earthquakes provided by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN), and this was complemented with data from the International Seismological Centre (ISC). The resulting P and S velocity patterns were generally consistent with each other at all depths. Beneath the northern part of the Red Sea, we observed a strong high-velocity anomaly with abrupt limits that coincide with the coastal lines. This finding may indicate the oceanic nature of the crust in the Red Sea, and it does not support the concept of gradual stretching of the continental crust. According to our results, in the middle and lower crust, the seismic anomalies beneath the Gulf of Aqaba seem to delineate a sinistral shift (˜ 100 km) in the opposite flanks of the fault zone, which is consistent with other estimates of the left-lateral displacement in the southern part of the Dead Sea Transform fault. However, no displacement structures were visible in the uppermost lithospheric mantle.

  13. Physical model studies of seismically induced deformations in slopes (United States)

    Wartman, Joseph

    Physical model experiments were conducted on a 1-g shaking table with the goals of: (1) investigating the mechanisms of seismically induced permanent deformations in slopes and embankments, (2) assessing the accuracy and applicability of the popular "Newmark-type" procedures for estimating deformations in slopes, and (3) developing a suite of fully defined "model-scale" case histories for calibration of existing numerical procedures for predicting seismic slope deformations and for the future development of advanced numerical analyses. The inclined plane experiments indicated that the Newmark (1965) sliding block procedure generally provides unconservative estimates of deformation when the predominant frequency of the input motion is 0.2 to 1.5 times the natural frequency of the sliding mass. Conversely, the procedure was found to be generally conservative when the frequency ratio is in the range of about 1.5 to 2.2. The inclined plane tests also suggest that one-dimensional decoupled deformation analyses are generally conservative, with decoupled analyses overpredicting measured deformations by about 10% to 20% for the tests analyzed. The model slopes were commonly observed to displace along two or more localized shear surfaces. The multiple shear surfaces were typically of the same orientation and generally located within relatively close proximity of each other. Surface deformations varied over the length of each model, with the largest displacements occurring at the toe or along the face of the slope. Newmark's (1965) assumption that deformation occurs along a single surface reasonably approximated the actual deformation behavior for tests where multiple shear surfaces developed in close proximity to each other. For approximately half the tests, however, the single surface assumption proved to be an oversimplification. Accuracy was improved when the Newmark (1965) procedure was modified by using the acceleration-time history recorded in the soil immediately


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Barut


    Full Text Available On August 17th 1999, a Mw 7.4 earthquake struck the city of Izmit in the north-west of Turkey. This event was one of the most devastating earthquakes of the twentieth century. The epicentre of the Izmit earthquake was on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF which is one of the most active right-lateral strike-slip faults on earth. However, this earthquake offers an opportunity to study how strain is accommodated in an inter-segment region of a large strike slip fault. In order to determine the Izmit earthquake post-seismic effects, the authors modelled Coulomb stress changes of the aftershocks, as well as using the deformation measurement techniques of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS. The authors have shown that InSAR and GNSS observations over a time period of three months after the earthquake combined with Coulomb Stress Change Modelling can explain the fault zone expansion, as well as the deformation of the northern region of the NAF. It was also found that there is a strong agreement between the InSAR and GNSS results for the post-seismic phases of investigation, with differences less than 2mm, and the standard deviation of the differences is less than 1mm.

  15. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.


    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  16. Reservoir creep and induced seismicity: inferences from geomechanical modeling of gas depletion in the Groningen field (United States)

    van Wees, Jan-Diederik; Osinga, Sander; Van Thienen-Visser, Karin; Fokker, Peter A.


    The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands experienced an immediate reduction in seismic events in the year following a massive cut in production. This reduction is inconsistent with existing models of seismicity predictions adopting compaction strains as proxy, since reservoir creep would then result in a more gradual reduction of seismic events after a production stop. We argue that the discontinuity in seismic response relates to a physical discontinuity in stress loading rate on faults upon the arrest of pressure change. The stresses originate from a combination of the direct poroelastic effect through the pressure changes and the delayed effect of ongoing compaction after cessation of reservoir production. Both mechanisms need to be taken into account. To this end, we employed finite-element models in a workflow that couples Kelvin-Chain reservoir creep with a semi-analytical approach for the solution of slip and seismic moment from the predicted stress change. For ratios of final creep and elastic compaction up to 5, the model predicts that the cumulative seismic moment evolution after a production stop is subject to a very moderate increase, 2-10 times less than the values predicted by the alternative approaches using reservoir compaction strain as proxy. This is in agreement with the low seismicity in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after reduction in production. The geomechanical model findings support scope for mitigating induced seismicity through adjusting rates of pressure change by cutting down production.

  17. Fundamental aspects of the integration of seismic monitoring with numerical modelling.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mendecki, AJ


    Full Text Available Numerical modelling of rock-mass response to underground excavations is of vital importance for the decision-making process in designing and running a mine. Likewise, seismic monitoring with state-of-the-art local seismic systems is indispensable...

  18. of building Advance model for seismic base isolation Systems ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    km west of the San Andreas Fault(Taylor and Igusa. 2004). The California Department of Transportation. (Caltrans) was the first U.S. transportation agency to use seismic isolation on a bridge at the Sierra Point. Overlook in 1985 (Taylor and Igusa 2004). The Friction Pendulum System (FPS) is a sliding type seismic isolator ...

  19. Advance model for seismic base isolation Systems of building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We set up some numerical experiment to evaluate our method and compare viability of the two main isolator types (i.e. sliding and elastomeric) for building. Keywords: Seismic Isolation, Base Isolation, Earthquake Resistant Design, Seismic Protective Systems J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. Dec., 2012, Vol. 16 (4) 309-316 ...

  20. Assessment of Stress-Strain State of Seismically Active Region of Armenia According to the Results of Hydrogeodynamic Monitoring (United States)

    Munkhsaikhan, A.; Avetyan, R.; Pashayan, R.


    Results of hydrogeodynamic monitoring, data of the chemical analysis of water were compared with seismic regime of the region aiming to study and evaluate stress-strain state of earth crust of Central Armenia during 2010-2014. Methodolgy of processing water level data came down to allocating tectonic-seismic stress taking into account the following factors: atmosphere pressure, precipitations, size of snow cover and tidal variations. The overall picture of the stress-strain state of the territory yearly was defined by calculated value of deformations around each hydrogeodynamic borehole taking into account the number of seismic events which occurred during that period. Maps of the isolines of equal values of deformations were drawn which reflect space-time regularity of the modern geodynamics of Armenia. The resluts of the correlation between parametres of hydrogeochemical effects and charaectreristics of earthquakes have shown that statistically significant connection between effect parametres (effect time, extremum time) and characteristics of seismic events (energetic class, epicentral distance ) was determined for the changes of parameters of the chemical composition of underground water. Histogram of changes of values of geochemical components of waters of mineral springs in space was drawn for the period of monitoring observations. The analysis of data allowed allocating more informative parameters of chemical composition of mineral water: gas component-carbon dioxide (CO2). Magnesium -Mg2+, chloride -Cl- where allocated from the macrocomponenet composition. According to the catalogue of seismic data there was drawn diagram of the frequency of earthquakes, reflecting the distribution of the earthquake number according to magnitude M (according to rule LgN=a-bM) in logarithmic scale. Coefficient of seismic activity was calculated - a, by which variations seismic activity of the region is evaluated. Thus, modern tectonic movements of earth crust of Armenia are

  1. Relation between earthquake focal intensity and recent vertical Earth's crustal movements in the Rila-Rhodope seismic region (United States)

    Totomanov, I. N.

    The stable statistical relation is studied between the maximum magnitude Y of expected earthquakes with foci in the Earth's crust and the vertical velocity X of recent crustal movements, in the mountainous region of southwestern Bulgaria characterized by a particularly high seismic and tectonic activity. The two dimensional random variate (X,Y) is presented by its sample (Xk, Yk), k = 1, 2,..., 60 composed by appropriate smoothed estimates according to data of the most recent investigations. The sampling (joint and respective marginal) distributions of (X, Y) are determined and examined. Statistical hypotheses are tested and the respective recent geokinematic and tectonic predestination of the seismic activity in the Rila-Rhodope seismic region is argued in terms of the best fit, to the empirical data, regression polynomial of Y with respect to X. A comparison is made between results obtained on the region under examination and corresponding data of earlier studies.

  2. Structural model of the eastern Achara-Trialeti fold and thrust belt using seismic reflection profiles (United States)

    Alania, Victor; Chabukiani, Alexander; Enukidze, Onise; Razmadze, Alexander; Sosson, Marc; Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar


    hangingwall structure with the syn-folding growth stratal sequence. Pre-growth Oligocene strata are overlain by Late (?) Quaternary alluvial fan gravels, sands and clays. Growth unconformity of back-limb showing flat clays unconformably on top of Oligocene sandstone and shale beds. The growth strata geometry of growth fold is related to the progressive limb-rotation model (Hardy & Poblet, 1994). References Alania, V., et al., 2016a. Structure of the eastern Achara-Trialeti fold and thrust belt using seismic reflection profiles: implication for tectonic model of the Lesser Caucasus orogen. 35TH International Geological Congress (IGC), 27 August - 4 September, 2016, Cape Town, South Africa. Alania, V., et al., 2016b. Growth structures, piggyback basins and growth strata of Georgian part of Kura foreland fold and thrust belt: implication for Late Alpine kinematic evolution. Geological Society, London, Special Publications no. 428, doi:10.1144/SP428.5. Hardy, S., and J. Poblet, 1994. Geometric and numerical model of progressive limb rotation in detachment folds: Geology, v. 22, p. 371-374. Shaw, J., Connors, C. & J. Suppe, 2005. Seismic interpretation of contractional fault-related folds. AAPG Studies in Geology 53, 156 pp. Sosson, M., et al., 2016. The Eastern Black Sea-Caucasus region during Cretaceous: new evidence to constrain its tectonic evolution. Compte-Rendus Geosciences, v. 348, Issue 1, p. 23-32.

  3. Development of a seismic source model for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 4 (EG1d)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiemer, S. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Garcia-Fernandez, M. [Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Museum of Natural History, Dept. of Volcanology and Geophysics, Madrid (Spain); Burg, J.-P. [Institute of Geology, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)


    We present a seismogenic source model for site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the sites of Swiss nuclear power plants. Our model is one of four developed in the framework of the PEGASOS project; it contains a logic tree with nine levels of decision-making. The two primary sources of input used in the areal zonation developed by us are the historical and instrumental seismicity record and large-scale geological/rheological units. From this, we develop a zonation of six macro zones, refined in a series of seven decision steps up to a maximum of 13 zones. Within zones, activity rates are either assumed homogeneous or smoothed using a Gaussian kernel with width of 5 or 15 km. To estimate recurrence rate, we assume a double truncated Gutenberg-Richter law, and consider five models of recurrence parameters with different degrees of freedom. Models are weighted in the logic tree using a weighted Akaike score. The maximum magnitude is estimated following the EPRI approach. We perform extensive sensitivity analyses in rate and hazard space in order to assess the role of de-clustering, the completeness model, quarry contamination, border properties, stationarity, regional b-value and magnitude-dependent hypocentral depth. (author)

  4. Historical Earthquakes As Examples To Assess The Seismic Hazard In The Eastern Region of Venezuela (United States)

    Martin, J.; Posadas, A.; Avendaño, J.; Sierra, R.; Bonive, F.

    The North-East region of Venezuela lies on the border of the friction zone between the Caribbean and South-American tectonic plates, a source of great seismicity. The first written news of an earthquake in the American Continent were those of the earth- quake of september 1530 which caused damage to Cumaná, the first town of that Continent. Since then a continuous series of earthquakes have been reported, many of them with damaging effects on Cumaná; those caused in the 1929 earthquake (17-01- 1929; with IX Mercalli degrees) were well described by Sidney Paige in the Vo. 20 of the B.S.S.A., March, 1930. An earthquake of magnitude 5.9 {11-06-1986; 10.26z N,63.29z W} was the trigger for the Unesco`s intention to declare the Estado Sucre as a pilot zone for seismological studies. In 1991 a report issued by the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Matematical Geophysics (Academy of Sciences, U.R.S.S.) stated that the ocurrence of an earthquake of great magnitude which could affect the North-East region of Venezuela was possible. Other studies of the seismicity of the region have been carried out. The interest of the authorities and of the seismologists reached a peak with the earthquake of july 1997 (10.456z N, 63.555z W), with a magnitude of 6.9; there was a death toll of 73, around 528 people injured and more than 2000 houses needed to be completely rebuilt. A study of micro- zonification of the city of Cumaná has been carried out recently and the results of this study will be presented also to this Congress.

  5. Seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling of subduction zone seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinther van, Y.


    The catastrophic occurrence of the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra and 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquakes illustrated the disastrous impact of megathrust earthquakes on society. They also emphasized our limited understanding of where and when these 'big ones' may strike. The necessary improvement of long-term seismic hazard assessment requires a better physical understanding of the seismic cycle at these seismically active subduction zones. Models have the potential to overcome the restricted, direct observations in space and time. Currently, however, no model exists to explore the relation between long-term subduction dynamics and relating deformation and short-term seismogenesis. The development, validation and initial application of such a physically consistent seismo-thermo-mechanical numerical model is the main objective of this thesis. First, I present a novel analog modeling tool that simulates cycling of megathrust earthquakes in a visco-elastic gelatin wedge. A comparison with natural observations shows interseismic and coseismic physics are captured in a robust, albeit simplified, way. This tool is used to validate that a continuum-mechanics based, visco-elasto-plastic numerical approach, typically used for large-scale geodynamic problems, can be extended to study the short-term seismogenesis of megathrust earthquakes. To generate frictional instabilities and match laboratory source parameters, a local invariant implementation of a strongly slip rate-dependent friction formulation is required. The resulting continuum approach captures several interesting dynamic features, including inter-, co- and postseismic deformation that agrees qualitatively with GPS measurements and dynamic rupture features, including cracks, self-healing pulses and fault re-rupturing. To facilitate a comparison to natural settings, I consider a more realistic setup of the Southern Chilean margin in terms of geometry and physical processes. Results agree with seismological, geodetic and

  6. The Seismic Potential of Planet Earth: Results from the First Global Block Model (United States)

    Graham, S. E.; Loveless, J. P.; Meade, B. J.


    Geodetically imaged interseismic deformation can be used to constrain the distribution of elastic strain accumulation, slip partitioning across complex fault patterns, plate rotations, and spatially variable patterns of fault coupling. Integrating previously published and newly developed regional block models, we have created a global block model that accounts for tectonic rotations and a first-order elastic approximation of earthquake cycle processes, fitting 19,500 worldwide GPS velocities to a mean residual velocity of GPS station density is sufficient to resolve locking patterns and slip rates on more complex fault geometries. We show how this model can be used to calculate the following: decadal geodetic moment accumulation rates - estimating the seismic potential of the planet, the frequency distribution of fault slip rates globally, and subduction zone coupling, including the number of potential Mw>8 rupture areas.

  7. Development of 3-axis precise positioning seismic physical modeling system in the simulation of marine seismic exploration (United States)

    Kim, D.; Shin, S.; Ha, J.; Lee, D.; Lim, Y.; Chung, W.


    Seismic physical modeling is a laboratory-scale experiment that deals with the actual and physical phenomena that may occur in the field. In seismic physical modeling, field conditions are downscaled and used. For this reason, even a small error may lead to a big error in an actual field. Accordingly, the positions of the source and the receiver must be precisely controlled in scale modeling. In this study, we have developed a seismic physical modeling system capable of precisely controlling the 3-axis position. For automatic and precise position control of an ultrasonic transducer(source and receiver) in the directions of the three axes(x, y, and z), a motor was mounted on each of the three axes. The motor can automatically and precisely control the positions with positional precision of 2''; for the x and y axes and 0.05 mm for the z axis. As it can automatically and precisely control the positions in the directions of the three axes, it has an advantage in that simulations can be carried out using the latest exploration techniques, such as OBS and Broadband Seismic. For the signal generation section, a waveform generator that can produce a maximum of two sources was used, and for the data acquisition section, which receives and stores reflected signals, an A/D converter that can receive a maximum of four signals was used. As multiple sources and receivers could be used at the same time, the system was set up in such a way that diverse exploration methods, such as single channel, multichannel, and 3-D exploration, could be realized. A computer control program based on LabVIEW was created, so that it could control the position of the transducer, determine the data acquisition parameters, and check the exploration data and progress in real time. A marine environment was simulated using a water tank 1 m wide, 1 m long, and 0.9 m high. To evaluate the performance and applicability of the seismic physical modeling system developed in this study, single channel and

  8. Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.


    The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

  9. Regional velocity structure in northern California from inversion of scattered seismic surface waves (United States)

    Pollitz, Fred F.


    Seismic surface waves recorded by the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network have been analyzed in order to constrain three-dimensional lateral heterogeneity of the upper mantle under northern California. A total of 2164 seismograms from 173 teleseismic events were windowed for the fundamental mode Rayleigh wave, followed by estimation of complex amplitude spectra over the period range 16 to 100 s using a multiple-taper method. Since Rayleigh waves at shorter periods, particularly below 35 s, suffer from serious multipathing or "non-plane" wave arrivals, these amplitude spectra have been interpreted as the product of wavefront distortion along the teleseismic propagation path and seismic structure beneath the network. The amplitude spectra are first modeled in terms of non-plane incoming wavefields and structural phase velocity perturbations period by period. After corrections for Moho and surface topography, the phase velocity maps are inverted for three-dimensional shear velocity perturbations δνs down to a depth of 200 km. The δνs maps are in good agreement with the results of body studies over a broad spatial scale. The dominant signals are associated with the thermal effects of the active Gorda and fossil Farallon subducted slab stretching from Mount Shasta through the western Sierran foothills to the southern Great Valley and asthenospheric upwelling beneath the northern Coast Ranges. The southern Sierra Nevada Range is characterized by fast δνs down to ˜50 km and slow velocities between ˜60 and 120 km depth, in agreement with independent inferences of a cold crust and warm upper mantle, which may provide the buoyancy forces necessary to support the elevation of the range.

  10. Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience (United States)

    Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco


    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including

  11. Computational Software to Fit Seismic Data Using Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models and Modeling Performance Comparisons (United States)

    Chu, A.


    Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work implements three of the homogeneous ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). With a model's log-likelihood function, my software finds the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs) of the model's parameters to estimate the homogeneous background rate and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects. EM-algorithm is employed for its advantages of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). My work also presents comparisons among the three models in robustness, convergence speed, and implementations from theory to computing practice. Up-to-date regional seismic data of seismic active areas such as Southern California and Japan are used to demonstrate the comparisons. Data analysis has been done using computer languages Java and R. Java has the advantages of being strong-typed and easiness of controlling memory resources, while R has the advantages of having numerous available functions in statistical computing. Comparisons are also made between the two programming languages in convergence and stability, computational speed, and easiness of implementation. Issues that may affect convergence such as spatial shapes are discussed.

  12. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization (United States)

    Azzaro, Raffaele; Barberi, Graziella; D'Amico, Salvatore; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura; Tuvè, Tiziana


    The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude-size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool - FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) - that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps

  13. An asymptotic model of seismic reflection from a permeable layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silin, D.; Goloshubin, G.


    Analysis of compression wave propagation in a poroelastic medium predicts a peak of reflection from a high-permeability layer in the low-frequency end of the spectrum. An explicit formula expresses the resonant frequency through the elastic moduli of the solid skeleton, the permeability of the reservoir rock, the fluid viscosity and compressibility, and the reservoir thickness. This result is obtained through a low-frequency asymptotic analysis of Biot's model of poroelasticity. A review of the derivation of the main equations from the Hooke's law, momentum and mass balance equations, and Darcy's law suggests an alternative new physical interpretation of some coefficients of the classical poroelasticity. The velocity of wave propagation, the attenuation factor, and the wave number, are expressed in the form of power series with respect to a small dimensionless parameter. The absolute value of this parameter is equal to the product of the kinematic reservoir fluid mobility and the wave frequency. Retaining only the leading terms of the series leads to explicit and relatively simple expressions for the reflection and transmission coefficients for a planar wave crossing an interface between two permeable media, as well as wave reflection from a thin highly-permeable layer (a lens). Practical applications of the obtained asymptotic formulae are seismic modeling, inversion, and at-tribute analysis.

  14. Spectral-Element Seismic Wave Propagation Codes for both Forward Modeling in Complex Media and Adjoint Tomography (United States)

    Smith, J. A.; Peter, D. B.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Lefebvre, M. P.


    We present both SPECFEM3D_Cartesian and SPECFEM3D_GLOBE open-source codes, representing high-performance numerical wave solvers simulating seismic wave propagation for local-, regional-, and global-scale application. These codes are suitable for both forward propagation in complex media and tomographic imaging. Both solvers compute highly accurate seismic wave fields using the continuous Galerkin spectral-element method on unstructured meshes. Lateral variations in compressional- and shear-wave speeds, density, as well as 3D attenuation Q models, topography and fluid-solid coupling are all readily included in both codes. For global simulations, effects due to rotation, ellipticity, the oceans, 3D crustal models, and self-gravitation are additionally included. Both packages provide forward and adjoint functionality suitable for adjoint tomography on high-performance computing architectures. We highlight the most recent release of the global version which includes improved performance, simultaneous MPI runs, OpenCL and CUDA support via an automatic source-to-source transformation library (BOAST), parallel I/O readers and writers for databases using ADIOS and seismograms using the recently developed Adaptable Seismic Data Format (ASDF) with built-in provenance. This makes our spectral-element solvers current state-of-the-art, open-source community codes for high-performance seismic wave propagation on arbitrarily complex 3D models. Together with these solvers, we provide full-waveform inversion tools to image the Earth's interior at unprecedented resolution.

  15. Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.


    We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

  16. Hypocenter relocation along the Sunda arc in Indonesia, using a 3D seismic velocity model (United States)

    Nugraha, Andri Dian; Shiddiqi, Hasbi A.; Widiyantoro, Sri; Thurber, Clifford H.; Pesicek, Jeremy D.; Zhang, Haijiang; Wiyono, Samsul H.; Ramadhan, Mohamad; Wandano,; Irsyam, Mahsyur


    The tectonics of the Sunda arc region is characterized by the junction of the Eurasian and Indo‐Australian tectonic plates, causing complex dynamics to take place. High‐seismicity rates in the Indonesian region occur due to the interaction between these tectonic plates. The availability of a denser network of seismometers after the earthquakes of Mw">Mw 9.1 in 2004 and  Mw">Mw 8.6 in 2005 supports various seismic studies, one of which regards the precise relocation of the hypocenters. In this study, hypocenter relocation was performed using a teleseismic double‐difference (DD) relocation method (teletomoDD) combining arrival times of P and S waves from stations at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. The catalog data were taken from the Agency of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia, and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the time period of April 2009 to May 2015. The 3D seismic‐wave velocity model with a grid size 1°×1°">1°×1° was used in the travel‐time calculations. Relocation results show a reduction in travel‐time residuals compared with the initial locations. The relocation results better illuminate subducted slabs and active faults in the region such as the Mentawai back thrust and the outer rise in the subduction zone south of Java. Focal mechanisms from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog are analyzed in conjunction with the relocation results, and our synthesis of the results provides further insight into seismogenesis in the region.

  17. Probabilistic Seismic Performance Model for Tunnel Form Concrete Building Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bahram Beheshti Aval


    Full Text Available Despite widespread construction of mass-production houses with tunnel form structural system across the world, unfortunately no special seismic code is published for design of this type of construction. Through a literature survey, only a few studies are about the seismic behavior of this type of structural system. Thus based on reasonable numerical results, the seismic performance of structures constructed with this technique considering the effective factors on structural behavior is highly noteworthy in a seismic code development process. In addition, due to newness of this system and observed damages in past earthquakes, and especially random nature of future earthquakes, the importance of probabilistic approach and necessity of developing fragility curves in a next generation Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE frame work are important. In this study, the seismic behavior of 2, 5 and 10 story tunnel form structures with a regular plan is examined. First, the performance levels of these structures under the design earthquake (return period of 475 years with time history analysis and pushover method are assessed, and then through incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curves are extracted for different levels of damage in walls and spandrels. The results indicated that the case study structures have high capacity and strength and show appropriate seismic performance. Moreover, all three structures subjected were in immediate occupancy performance level.

  18. Lithology-derived structure classification from the joint interpretation of magnetotelluric and seismic models (United States)

    Bedrosian, P.A.; Maercklin, N.; Weckmann, U.; Bartov, Y.; Ryberg, T.; Ritter, O.


    Magnetotelluric and seismic methods provide complementary information about the resistivity and velocity structure of the subsurface on similar scales and resolutions. No global relation, however, exists between these parameters, and correlations are often valid for only a limited target area. Independently derived inverse models from these methods can be combined using a classification approach to map geologic structure. The method employed is based solely on the statistical correlation of physical properties in a joint parameter space and is independent of theoretical or empirical relations linking electrical and seismic parameters. Regions of high correlation (classes) between resistivity and velocity can in turn be mapped back and re-examined in depth section. The spatial distribution of these classes, and the boundaries between them, provide structural information not evident in the individual models. This method is applied to a 10 km long profile crossing the Dead Sea Transform in Jordan. Several prominent classes are identified with specific lithologies in accordance with local geology. An abrupt change in lithology across the fault, together with vertical uplift of the basement suggest the fault is sub-vertical within the upper crust. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 RAS.

  19. Seismic soil structure interaction: analysis and centrifuge model studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, W.D.L.; Ledbetter, R.H.; Beratan, L.L.


    A method for non-linear dynamic effective stress analysis is introduced which is applicable to soil-structure interaction problems. Full interaction including slip between structure and foundation is taken into account and the major factors are included which must be considered when computing dynamic soil response. An experimental investigation was conducted using simulated earthquake tests on centrifuged geotechnical models in order to obtain prototype response data of foundation soils carrying both surface and embedded structures and to validate the dynamic effective stress analysis. Horizontal and vertical accelerations were measured at various points on structures and in the sand foundation. Seismically-induced pore water pressure changes were also measured at various locations in the foundation. Computer plots of the data were obtained while the centrifuge was in flight and representative samples are presented. The results show clearly the pronounced effect that increasing pore water pressures have on dynamic response. It is demonstrated that a coherent picture of dynamic response of soil-structure systems is provided by dynamic effective stress non-linear analysis. Based on preliminary results, it appears that the pore water pressure effects can be predicted

  20. Seismic soil-structure interaction: Analysis and centrifuge model studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, W.D.L.; Ledbetter, R.H.; Beratan, L.L.


    A method for nonlinear dynamic effective stress analysis applicable to soil-structure interaction problems is introduced. Full interaction including slip between structure and foundation is taken into account and the major factors that must be considered when computing dynamic soil response are included. An experimental investigation using simulated earthquake tests on centrifuged geotechnical models was conducted to obtain prototype response data of foundation soils carrying both surface and embedded structures and to validate the dynamic effective stress analysis. The centrifuge tests were conducted in the Geotechnical Centrifuge at Cambridge University, England. Horizontal and vertical accelerations were measured at various points on structures and in the sand foundation. Seismically induced pore water pressure changes were also measured at various locations in the foundation. Computer plots of the data were obtained while the centrifuge was in flight and representative samples are presented. The results clearly show the pronounced effect of increasing pore water pressures on dynamic response. It is demonstrated that a coherent picture of dynamic response of soil-structure systems is provided by dynamic effective stress nonlinear analysis. On the basis of preliminary results, it appears that the effects of pore water pressure can be predicted. (orig.)

  1. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US (United States)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.


    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.


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  3. Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs (United States)

    We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marce...

  4. Seismic hazard assessment of Kashmir and Kangra valley region, Western Himalaya, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basab Mukhopadhyay


    Full Text Available A complete earthquake catalogue of the Western Himalaya (latitudes 30°N–36°N and longitudes 72°E–78°E for the period of 1501–2010 has been compiled with earthquake magnitude computed in moment magnitude (Mw scale. Pre- and early twentieth century records of earthquake damage have been documented from rare and out of print publications. Seismotectonics and seismic hazard for Kohistan arc, Kashmir–Hazara Syntaxis, Nanga-Parbat (Western Syntaxis, Karakoram and Himachal Himalaya are discussed with special reference to 1905 Kangra and 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquakes. Analyses of spatio-temporal variation in b-value from the region indicate significant precursor prior to the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake; progressive rise of background b-value observed and the main shock locates close to relative high b-value domains. Regions surrounding the location of the 1905 Kangra earthquake also display such high b-value for the period of 2005–2010 that calls for closer scrutiny. Temporal analysis of b-value from the epicentral block of Muzaffarabad earthquake clearly showed a high–low b-value couplet of 1.45–0.72, which may be treated as a typical precursor before an imminent large earthquake. Gumbel extreme value statistics indicate probability of occurrence of an event of Mw > 7.0 within 50 years in the region.

  5. Discontinuum Modelling Approach for Stress Analysis at a Seismic Source: Case Study (United States)

    Sainoki, Atsushi; Mitri, Hani S.; Yao, Mike; Chinnasane, Damodara


    Rockbursts in underground mines can cause devastating damage to mine workings; hence, it is important to be able to assess the potential for their occurrence. The present study focuses on a large seismic event that took place at an underground base metal mine in Canada. The event took place in a dyke near the 100/900 orebodies on 3880 Level (1180 m below surface) of the Copper Cliff Mine in Sudbury, Canada. A 3D continuum stress analysis of the orebodies, i.e., 100 and 900, using an orebody-wide model encompassing the major geological structures and in situ stress heterogeneity in the mine shows low potential for rockburst at the seismic source location—a result which contradicts the fact that a large seismic event actually took place. A postulation is thus made that there had been highly stressed regions caused by geological disturbances at the source location before mining activities took place. In order to verify the postulation, a further study is undertaken with the discrete element modelling technique, whereby a cube-shaped model containing a fracture network is subjected to a stress state similar to that at the source location. A model parametrical study is conducted with respect to the distribution of the fracture (joint) network and its mechanical properties. The results reveal that when joints are densely distributed at the source location, the stress state becomes significantly burst prone. It is observed that the length, density, stiffness, and orientation of joints have a large influence on the stress state along the joints, while the friction angle, cohesion, and tensile strength do not influence the stress state. A cube-shaped model is constructed with joint sets actually mapped at the mine and a stress analysis is performed. The results demonstrate the generation of highly stressed regions due to the interaction of the joints with the applied in situ stress fields, thus leading to burst-prone conditions. The present study numerically confirms that

  6. Seismic anisotropy inside the Earth from a model space search approach


    Beghein, Caroline


    For theoretical and computational convenience, the Earth has long been modelled as an isotropic medium for wave propagation. There is, however, considerable evidence of seismic anisotropy at different depths and different scales throughout the Earth, which can provide insight into Earth's dynamic processes. Since computational power has greatly increased during the last decades, it has now become possible to account for seismic anisotropy in tomographic modelling. Current methods to map seism...

  7. Subsurface geology of the Lusi region: preliminary results from a comprehensive seismic-stratigraphic study. (United States)

    Moscariello, Andrea; Do Couto, Damien; Lupi, Matteo; Mazzini, Adriano


    We investigate the subsurface data of a large sector in the Sidoarjo district (East Java, Indonesia) where the sudden catastrophic Lusi eruption started the 26th May 2006. Our goal is to understand the stratigraphic and structural features which can be genetically related to the surface manifestations of deep hydrothermal fluids and thus allow us to predict possible future similar phenomena in the region. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126) we examined a series of densely spaced 2D reflection commercial seismic lines This allowed the reconstruction of the lateral variability of key stratigraphic horizons as well as the main tectonic features. In particular, we shed light on the deep structure of the Watukosek fault system and the associated fracture corridors crossing the entire stratigraphic successions. To the South-West, when approaching the volcanic complex, we could identify a clear contrast in seismic facies between chaotic volcanoclastic wedges and clastic-prone sedimentary successions as well as between the deeper stratigraphic units consisting of carbonates and lateral shales units. The latter show possible ductile deformation associated to fault-controlled diapirism which control in turns deformation of overlying stratigraphic units and deep geo-fluids circulation. Large collapse structures recognized in the study area (e.g. well PRG-1) are interpreted as the results of shale movement at depth. Similarly to Lusi, vertical deformation zones ("pipes"), likely associated with deeply rooted strike-slip systems seem to be often located at the interface between harder carbonate rocks forming isolated build ups and the laterally nearby clastic (shale-prone)-units. The mechanisms of deformation of structural features (strike vs dip slip systems) which may affect either the basement rock or the overlying deeper stratigraphic rocks is also being investigated to understand the relationship between deep and shallower (i.e. meteoric) fluid

  8. New tomographic images of P- , S- wave velocity and Q on the Philippine Sea Slab beneath Tokyo: Implication to seismotectonics and seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan region (United States)

    Hirata, Naoshi; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Nakagawa, Shigeki; Panayotopoulos, Yannis; Ishikawa, Masahiro; Sato, Hiroshi; Kasahara, Keiji; Kimura, Hisanor; Honda, Ryou


    The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates the next great M7+ earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan region will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (1 trillion US) economic loss at worst case if it occur beneath northern Tokyo bay with M7.3. However, the estimate is based on a source fault model by conventional studies about the PSP geometry. To evaluate seismic hazard due to the great quake we need to clarify the geometry of PSP and also the Pacific palate (PAP) that subducs beneath PSP. We identify those plates with use of seismic tomography and available deep seismic reflection profiling and borehole data in southern Kanto area. We deployed about 300 seismic stations in the greater Tokyo urban region under the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. We obtain clear P- and S- wave velocity (Vp and Vs) and Q tomograms which show a clear image of PSP and PAP. A depth to the top of PSP, 20 to 30 kilometer beneath northern part of Tokyo bay, is about 10 km shallower than previous estimates based on the distribution of seismicity (Ishida, 1992). This shallower plate geometry changes estimations of strong ground motion for seismic hazards analysis within the Tokyo region. Based on elastic wave velocities of rocks and minerals, we interpreted the tomographic images as petrologic images. Tomographic images revealed the presence of two stepwise velocity increase of the top layer of the subducting PSP slab. Rock velocity data reveals that subducting PSP crust transforms from blueschists to amphibolites at depth of 30km and amphibolites to eclogites at depth of 50km, which suggest that dehydration reactions occurs in subducting crust of basaltic compositions during prograde metamorphism and water is released from the subducting PSP crust. Tomograms show evidence for a low-velocity zone (LVZ) beneath the area just north of Tokyo bay. A Q tomogram show a low Q zone in PSP slab. We interpret the LVZ as a

  9. The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann


    Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

  10. Seismic analysis of a reinforced concrete containment vessel model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randy, James J.; Cherry, Jeffery L.; Rashid, Yusef R.; Chokshi, Nilesh


    Pre-and post-test analytical predictions of the dynamic behavior of a 1:10 scale model Reinforced Concrete Containment Vessel are presented. This model, designed and constructed by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., was subjected to seismic simulation tests using the high-performance shaking table at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory in Japan. A group of tests representing design-level and beyond-design-level ground motions were first conducted to verify design safety margins. These were followed by a series of tests in which progressively larger base motions were applied until structural failure was induced. The analysis was performed by ANATECH Corp. and Sandia National Laboratories for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, employing state-of-the-art finite-element software specifically developed for concrete structures. Three-dimensional time-history analyses were performed, first as pre-test blind predictions to evaluate the general capabilities of the analytical methods, and second as post-test validation of the methods and interpretation of the test result. The input data consisted of acceleration time histories for the horizontal, vertical and rotational (rocking) components, as measured by accelerometers mounted on the structure's basemat. The response data consisted of acceleration and displacement records for various points on the structure, as well as time-history records of strain gages mounted on the reinforcement. This paper reports on work in progress and presents pre-test predictions and post-test comparisons to measured data for tests simulating maximum design basis and extreme design basis earthquakes. The pre-test analyses predict the failure earthquake of the test structure to have an energy level in the range of four to five times the energy level of the safe shutdown earthquake. The post-test calculations completed so far show good agreement with measured data

  11. Imaging the Chicxulub central crater zone from large scale seismic acoustic wave propagation and gravity modeling (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.; Ortiz-Aleman, C.; Martin, R.


    Large complex craters are characterized by central uplifts that represent large-scale differential movement of deep basement from the transient cavity. Here we investigate the central sector of the large multiring Chicxulub crater, which has been surveyed by an array of marine, aerial and land-borne geophysical methods. Despite high contrasts in physical properties,contrasting results for the central uplift have been obtained, with seismic reflection surveys showing lack of resolution in the central zone. We develop an integrated seismic and gravity model for the main structural elements, imaging the central basement uplift and melt and breccia units. The 3-D velocity model built from interpolation of seismic data is validated using perfectly matched layer seismic acoustic wave propagation modeling, optimized at grazing incidence using shift in the frequency domain. Modeling shows significant lack of illumination in the central sector, masking presence of the central uplift. Seismic energy remains trapped in an upper low velocity zone corresponding to the sedimentary infill, melt/breccias and surrounding faulted blocks. After conversion of seismic velocities into a volume of density values, we use massive parallel forward gravity modeling to constrain the size and shape of the central uplift that lies at 4.5 km depth, providing a high-resolution image of crater structure.The Bouguer anomaly and gravity response of modeled units show asymmetries, corresponding to the crater structure and distribution of post-impact carbonates, breccias, melt and target sediments

  12. Comparison of Omega-2 and Omega-3 calibration explosions basing on regional seismic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhajlova, N.N.; Sokolova, I.N.


    Comparison of different parameters of seismic records of Omega-2 and Omega-3 calibration explosions was performed. It was shown that despite the equal charge the level of seismic oscillations was lower during the Omega-3 explosion than during Omega-2. Spectral composition, polarization of oscillations, wave picture is identical at a given station for both explosions. Assumptions were made on the reason of such difference in seismic effect. (author)

  13. The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models. (United States)

    Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.


    The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault

  14. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.


    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  15. Seismic model of Mars. 2. Free oscillations and travel times (United States)

    Gudkova, Tamara; Lognonne, Philippe; Raevskiy, Sergey; Zharkov, Vladimir

    When constructing an interior structure model of a planet, it is common used method to describe the model by a restricted set of parameters: the thickness of the crust, the location of phase transitions, the core radius. The variation of these parameters originates from the uncertainties in temperature profile, composition, elastic and anelastic properties of relevant minerals. Water content should also be considered as a compositional variable in the mantle. Olivine and its high pressure phases, wadsleyite and ringwoodite are particularly important as they constitute about 60 wt% of the Martian mantle and have probably large capacity for water in the Martian mantle (Zharkov and Gudkova, 2014). At present Mars’ internal density distribution is constrained by the recent estimates of the moment of inertia and the Love number k _{2} (Konoplive et al., 2011). Below we use the data from Earth studies and laboratory data (Mao et al., 2010, 2011, 2012,extrapolated for P-T conditions in Mars, and show how the admixture of water in the main Martian minerals influences velocity drops at phase transition boundaries in Martian interiors and study the effects of hydration on the periods of free oscillations and travel times for P, PcP, S, ScS waves , which could serve as additional constraints, if upcoming seismic experiments are successful, as they can potentially constrain mantle composition and make more precise the location of transition zones. It is of importance to determine the depth of the phase transitions in the mantle, as it will fix the temperature profile in Mars. Our analysis is based on a trial seismic model M14_3 from (Zharkov et al., 2009). The crust is 50 km thick (with density of 2.9 g/cm (3) ), the molar ratio Fe/(Fe+Mg) in the mantle is 0.20, the Fe-Ni core contains 70 mol % H in addition to 14 wt % S with radius of 1800 km. The bulk Fe/Si ratio is close to chondritic 1.7. The upper mantle extends down to 1590 km depth. Olivine-wadsleite transition zone

  16. Application of random seismic inversion method based on tectonic model in thin sand body research (United States)

    Dianju, W.; Jianghai, L.; Qingkai, F.


    The oil and gas exploitation at Songliao Basin, Northeast China have already progressed to the period with high water production. The previous detailed reservoir description that based on seismic image, sediment core, borehole logging has great limitations in small scale structural interpretation and thin sand body characterization. Thus, precise guidance for petroleum exploration is badly in need of a more advanced method. To do so, we derived the method of random seismic inversion constrained by tectonic model.It can effectively improve the depicting ability of thin sand bodies, combining numerical simulation techniques, which can credibly reducing the blindness of reservoir analysis from the whole to the local and from the macroscopic to the microscopic. At the same time, this can reduce the limitations of the study under the constraints of different geological conditions of the reservoir, accomplish probably the exact estimation for the effective reservoir. Based on the research, this paper has optimized the regional effective reservoir evaluation and the productive location adjustment of applicability, combined with the practical exploration and development in Aonan oil field.

  17. Regional geothermal 3D modelling in Denmark (United States)

    Poulsen, S. E.; Balling, N.; Bording, T. S.; Nielsen, S. B.


    In the pursuit of sustainable and low carbon emission energy sources, increased global attention has been given to the exploration and exploitation of geothermal resources within recent decades. In 2009 a national multi-disciplinary geothermal research project was established. As a significant part of this project, 3D temperature modelling is to be carried out, with special emphasis on temperatures of potential geothermal reservoirs in the Danish area. The Danish subsurface encompasses low enthalpy geothermal reservoirs of mainly Triassic and Jurassic age. Geothermal plants at Amager (Copenhagen) and Thisted (Northern Jutland) have the capacity of supplying the district heating network with up to 14 MW and 7 MW, respectively, by withdrawing warm pore water from the Gassum (Lower Jurassic/Upper Triassic) and Bunter (Lower Triassic) sandstone reservoirs, respectively. Explorative studies of the subsurface temperature regime typically are based on a combination of observations and modelling. In this study, the open-source groundwater modelling code MODFLOW is modified to simulate the subsurface temperature distribution in three dimensions by taking advantage of the mathematical similarity between saturated groundwater flow (Darcy flow) and heat conduction. A numerical model of the subsurface geology in Denmark is built and parameterized from lithological information derived from joint interpretation of seismic surveys and borehole information. Boundary conditions are constructed from knowledge about the heat flow from the Earth's interior and the shallow ground temperature. Matrix thermal conductivities have been estimated from analysis of high-resolution temperature logs measured in deep wells and porosity-depth relations are included using interpreted main lithologies. The model takes into account the dependency of temperature and pressure on thermal conductivity. Moreover, a transient model based correction of the paleoclimatic thermal disturbance caused by the

  18. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante


    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  19. A local adaptive method for the numerical approximation in seismic wave modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galuzzi Bruno G.


    Full Text Available We propose a new numerical approach for the solution of the 2D acoustic wave equation to model the predicted data in the field of active-source seismic inverse problems. This method consists in using an explicit finite difference technique with an adaptive order of approximation of the spatial derivatives that takes into account the local velocity at the grid nodes. Testing our method to simulate the recorded seismograms in a marine seismic acquisition, we found that the low computational time and the low approximation error of the proposed approach make it suitable in the context of seismic inversion problems.

  20. Seismic facies; Facies sismicas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johann, Paulo Roberto Schroeder [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Exploracao e Producao Corporativo. Gerencia de Reservas e Reservatorios]. E-mail:


    The method presented herein describes the seismic facies as representations of curves and vertical matrixes of the lithotypes proportions. The seismic facies are greatly interested in capturing the spatial distributions (3D) of regionalized variables, as for example, lithotypes, sedimentary facies groups and/ or porosity and/or other properties of the reservoirs and integrate them into the 3D geological modeling (Johann, 1997). Thus when interpreted as curves or vertical matrixes of proportions, seismic facies allow us to build a very important tool for structural analysis of regionalized variables. The matrixes have an important application in geostatistical modeling. In addition, this approach provides results about the depth and scale of the wells profiles, that is, seismic data is integrated to the characterization of reservoirs in depth maps and in high resolution maps. The link between the different necessary technical phases involved in the classification of the segments of seismic traces is described herein in groups of predefined traces of two approaches: a) not supervised and b) supervised by the geological knowledge available on the studied reservoir. The multivariate statistical methods used to obtain the maps of the seismic facies units are interesting tools to be used to provide a lithostratigraphic and petrophysical understanding of a petroleum reservoir. In the case studied these seismic facies units are interpreted as representative of the depositional system as a part of the Namorado Turbiditic System, Namorado Field, Campos Basin.Within the scope of PRAVAP 19 (Programa Estrategico de Recuperacao Avancada de Petroleo - Strategic Program of Advanced Petroleum Recovery) some research work on algorithms is underway to select new optimized attributes to apply seismic facies. One example is the extraction of attributes based on the wavelet transformation and on the time-frequency analysis methodology. PRAVAP is also carrying out research work on an

  1. Estimation of Seismic Wavelets Based on the Multivariate Scale Mixture of Gaussians Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing-Huai Gao


    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method for estimating seismic wavelets. Suppose a seismic wavelet can be modeled by a formula with three free parameters (scale, frequency and phase. We can transform the estimation of the wavelet into determining these three parameters. The phase of the wavelet is estimated by constant-phase rotation to the seismic signal, while the other two parameters are obtained by the Higher-order Statistics (HOS (fourth-order cumulant matching method. In order to derive the estimator of the Higher-order Statistics (HOS, the multivariate scale mixture of Gaussians (MSMG model is applied to formulating the multivariate joint probability density function (PDF of the seismic signal. By this way, we can represent HOS as a polynomial function of second-order statistics to improve the anti-noise performance and accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can work well for short time series.

  2. Use of a viscoelastic model for the seismic response of base-isolated buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uras, R.A.


    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology, seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly becoming an acceptable design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, high-energy seismic input motions are transformed into low-frequency, low energy harmonic motions and the accelerations acting on the isolated building are significantly reduced. Several alternatives exist for the modeling of the isolators. This study is concerned with the use of a viscoelastic model to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. The in-house finite element computer code has been modified to incorporate a viscoelastic spring element, and several simulations are performed. Then, the computed results have been compared with the corresponding observed data recorded at the test facility.

  3. Use of a viscoelastic model for the seismic response of base-isolated buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uras, R.A.


    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology, seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly becoming an acceptable design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, high-energy seismic input motions can be transformed into low-frequency, low-energy harmonic motions, and the accelerations acting on the isolated building may be significantly reduced. Several alternatives exist for the modeling of the isolators. This study is concerned with the use of a viscoelastic model to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. The in-house finite element computer code, SISEC has been modified to incorporate a viscoelastic spring element, and several simulations are performed. Then, the computed results have been compared with the corresponding observed data recorded at the test facility

  4. Use of a viscoelastic model for the seismic response of base-isolated buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uras, R.A.


    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology, seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly becoming an acceptable design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, high-energy seismic input motions are transformed into low-frequency, low energy harmonic motions and the accelerations acting on the isolated building are significantly reduced. Several alternatives exist for the modeling of the isolators. This study is concerned with the use of a viscoelastic model to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. The in-house finite element computer code has been modified to incorporate a viscoelastic spring element, and several simulations are performed. Then, the computed results have been compared with the corresponding observed data recorded at the test facility

  5. Seismic resistant analysis of coupled model of reactor coolant system and reactor building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaowen; Xia Zufeng


    Reactor coolant system(RCS) and reactor building are actually coupled with each other. SRP (Revision 2) edited by USNRC particularly pointed out in 3.7.2 that RCS, which is considered a subsystem but is usually analyzed using a coupled model with building. Under this background, this paper selects PC-NPP as a study object, and seismic resistant analysis is performed with a coupled model of building and RCS using response spectrum method and time history method. Finally, analyzed results are compared with those of uncoupled RCS model. In the analysis, building is simulated with cantilever beam model of shear wall combination. In the uncoupled model, each supporting of equipment is modeled using elastic beam element with actual supporting stiffness, which is connected to a rigid cantilever (single-point input) and to an elastic cantilever (multipoint input). Seismic load of coupled model is input from the bottom of building. After comparison, it is shown that the effect of interaction between RCS and building can not be ignored, and the uncoupled model for seismic resistant analysis is inappropriate to be applied in actual seismic design. Through this research, we can control the seismic analysis technique in coupled model and enhance our analysis level of NPP. (authors)

  6. Ambient Noise Tomography Applied to Nodal Data Sets in Induced Seismicity Regions (United States)

    Sufri, O.; DeShon, H. R.; Ogwari, P.; Hayward, C.; Magnani, M. B.


    We present results of ambient noise tomography performed using nodal datasets with different array apertures and geometries deployed in northern Texas and northern Oklahoma to capture induced earthquakes. We show that ambient noise tomography techniques can be performed on small aperture, oddly shaped array datasets. In northern Texas, the nodal data was collected on 10 Hz single-component vertical sensors that were deployed from the collaboration between SMU and Nodal Seismic. The data was acquired between 25 February and 8 March 2014. First, we compute the cross-correlation between the geophone pairs, which are used as Green's functions to perform ambient noise tomography, and find acceptable results between 0.3-1.0 seconds. We compute the phase velocities for these periods and invert the phase velocities to obtain shear wave velocity structure for up to depths of 200 meters underneath the array. The small aperture of the array (2.6 km x 2.92 km) limits depth resolution. The resulting shear wave velocity model is then used as a shallow velocity constraint to improve double-difference local earthquake tomography using the earthquake data from a co-located local seismic network. We present tomography results aimed at resolving 3D velocity heterogeneity associated with the 2013-2015 Azle-Reno induced earthquake sequence. These techniques are also applied to conduct ambient noise tomography in northern Oklahoma using the IRIS Wavefield Community Experiment data. This data was acquired between 23 June and 20 July 2016 from a larger (6 km x 14 km) aperture array consisting of 5 Hz 3-component nodes. Because the aperture of Wavefield network was larger than the north Texas array, we expect to resolve shear velocity to greater depth and provide 3D information on near surface velocity heterogeneity, and possibly resolve faulting associated with earthquakes beneath the array.

  7. The Sacred Mountain of Varallo in Italy: seismic risk assessment by acoustic emission and structural numerical models. (United States)

    Carpinteri, Alberto; Lacidogna, Giuseppe; Invernizzi, Stefano; Accornero, Federico


    We examine an application of Acoustic Emission (AE) technique for a probabilistic analysis in time and space of earthquakes, in order to preserve the valuable Italian Renaissance Architectural Complex named "The Sacred Mountain of Varallo." Among the forty-five chapels of the Renaissance Complex, the structure of the Chapel XVII is of particular concern due to its uncertain structural condition and due to the level of stress caused by the regional seismicity. Therefore, lifetime assessment, taking into account the evolution of damage phenomena, is necessary to preserve the reliability and safety of this masterpiece of cultural heritage. A continuous AE monitoring was performed to assess the structural behavior of the Chapel. During the monitoring period, a correlation between peaks of AE activity in the masonry of the "Sacred Mountain of Varallo" and regional seismicity was found. Although the two phenomena take place on very different scales, the AE in materials and the earthquakes in Earth's crust, belong to the same class of invariance. In addition, an accurate finite element model, performed with DIANA finite element code, is presented to describe the dynamic behavior of Chapel XVII structure, confirming visual and instrumental inspections of regional seismic effects.

  8. The Sacred Mountain of Varallo in Italy: Seismic Risk Assessment by Acoustic Emission and Structural Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Carpinteri


    Full Text Available We examine an application of Acoustic Emission (AE technique for a probabilistic analysis in time and space of earthquakes, in order to preserve the valuable Italian Renaissance Architectural Complex named “The Sacred Mountain of Varallo.” Among the forty-five chapels of the Renaissance Complex, the structure of the Chapel XVII is of particular concern due to its uncertain structural condition and due to the level of stress caused by the regional seismicity. Therefore, lifetime assessment, taking into account the evolution of damage phenomena, is necessary to preserve the reliability and safety of this masterpiece of cultural heritage. A continuous AE monitoring was performed to assess the structural behavior of the Chapel. During the monitoring period, a correlation between peaks of AE activity in the masonry of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and regional seismicity was found. Although the two phenomena take place on very different scales, the AE in materials and the earthquakes in Earth’s crust, belong to the same class of invariance. In addition, an accurate finite element model, performed with DIANA finite element code, is presented to describe the dynamic behavior of Chapel XVII structure, confirming visual and instrumental inspections of regional seismic effects.

  9. On the modeling and inversion of seismic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, C.C.


    In this thesis we investigate some mathematical questions related to the inversion of seismic data. In Chapter 2 we review results in the literature and give some new results on wave equations with coefficients that are just bounded and measurable. We show that these equations have unique

  10. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.


    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  11. The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California (United States)

    Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.


    The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

  12. Selecting ground-motion models developed for induced seismicity in geothermal areas (United States)

    Edwards, Benjamin; Douglas, John


    We present a case study of the ranking and weighting of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for seismic hazard assessment of enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). The study region is Cooper Basin (Australia), where a hot-fractured-rock project was established in 2002. We test the applicability of 36 GMPEs based on stochastic simulations previously proposed for use at EGSs. Each GMPE has a set of corresponding model parameters describing stress drop, regional and local (near-surface) attenuation. To select suitable GMPEs for Cooper Basin from the full set, we applied two methods. In the first, seismograms recorded on the local monitoring network were spectrally analysed to determine characteristic stress and attenuation parameters. In a second approach, residual analysis using the log-likelihood (LLH) method was used to directly compare recorded and predicted short-period response spectral accelerations. The resulting ranking was consistent with the models selected based on spectral analysis, with the advantage that a transparent weighting approach was available using the LLH method. Region-specific estimates of variability were computed, with significantly lower values observed compared to previous studies of small earthquakes. This was consistent with the limited range of stress drops and attenuation observed from the spectral analysis.

  13. The great triangular seismic region in eastern Asia: Thoughts on its dynamic context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianglin Gao


    Full Text Available A huge triangle-shaped tectonic region in eastern Asia plays host to numerous major earthquakes. The three boundaries of this region, which contains plateaus, mountains, and intermountain basins, are roughly the Himalayan arc, the Tianshan-Baikal, and longitude line ∼105°E. Within this triangular region, tectonism is intense and major deformation occurs both between crustal blocks and within most of them. Outside of this region, rigid blocks move as a whole with relatively few major earthquakes and relatively weak Cenozoic deformation. On a large tectonic scale, the presence of this broad region of intraplate deformation results from dynamic interactions between the Indian, Philippine Sea-West Pacific, and Eurasian plates, as well as the influence of deep-level mantle flow. The Indian subcontinent, which continues to move northwards at ∼40 mm/a since its collision with Eurasia, has plunged beneath Tibet, resulting in various movements and deformations along the Himalayan arc that diffuse over a long distance into the hinterland of Asia. The northward crustal escape of Asia from the Himalayan collisional zone turns eastwards and southeastwards along 95°–100°E longitude and defines the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. At the western Himalayan syntaxis, the Pamirs continue to move into central Asia, leading to crustal deformation and earthquakes that are largely accommodated by old EW or NW trending faults in the bordering areas between China, Mongolia, and Russia, and are restricted by the stable landmass northwest of the Tianshan-Altai-Baikal region. The subduction of the Philippine and Pacific plates under the Eurasian continent has generated a very long and narrow seismic zone along trenches and island arcs in the marginal seas while imposing only slight horizontal compression on the Asian continent that does not impede the eastward motion of eastern Asia. In the third dimension, there may be southeastward deep mantle flow beneath most of

  14. Quantitative assessments of mantle flow models against seismic observations: Influence of uncertainties in mineralogical parameters (United States)

    Schuberth, Bernhard S. A.


    One of the major challenges in studies of Earth's deep mantle is to bridge the gap between geophysical hypotheses and observations. The biggest dataset available to investigate the nature of mantle flow are recordings of seismic waveforms. On the other hand, numerical models of mantle convection can be simulated on a routine basis nowadays for earth-like parameters, and modern thermodynamic mineralogical models allow us to translate the predicted temperature field to seismic structures. The great benefit of the mineralogical models is that they provide the full non-linear relation between temperature and seismic velocities and thus ensure a consistent conversion in terms of magnitudes. This opens the possibility for quantitative assessments of the theoretical predictions. The often-adopted comparison between geodynamic and seismic models is unsuitable in this respect owing to the effects of damping, limited resolving power and non-uniqueness inherent to tomographic inversions. The most relevant issue, however, is related to wavefield effects that reduce the magnitude of seismic signals (e.g., traveltimes of waves), a phenomenon called wavefront healing. Over the past couple of years, we have developed an approach that takes the next step towards a quantitative assessment of geodynamic models and that enables us to test the underlying geophysical hypotheses directly against seismic observations. It is based solely on forward modelling and warrants a physically correct treatment of the seismic wave equation without theoretical approximations. Fully synthetic 3-D seismic wavefields are computed using a spectral element method for 3-D seismic structures derived from mantle flow models. This way, synthetic seismograms are generated independent of any seismic observations. Furthermore, through the wavefield simulations, it is possible to relate the magnitude of lateral temperature variations in the dynamic flow simulations directly to body-wave traveltime residuals. The

  15. Velocity Structure in the West Bohemia Seismic Zone: Velocity Models Retrieved from different Earthquake Swarms (United States)

    Alexandrakis, C.; Löberich, E.; Kieslich, A.; Calo, M.; Vavrycuk, V.; Buske, S.


    Earthquake swarms, fluid migration and gas springs are indications of the ongoing geodynamic processes within the West Bohemia seismic zone located at the Czech-German border. The possible relationship between the fluids, gas and seismicity is of particular interest and has motivated numerous past, ongoing and future studies, including a multidisciplinary monitoring proposal through the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The most seismically active area within the West Bohemia seismic zone is located at the Czech town Nový Kostel. The Nový Kostel zone experiences frequent swarms of several hundreds to thousands of earthquakes over a period of weeks to several months. The seismicity is always located in the same area and depth range (~5-15 km), however the activated fault segments and planes differ. For example, the 2008 swarm activated faults along the southern end of the seismic zone, the 2011 swarm activated the northern segment, and the recent 2014 swarm activated the middle of the seismic zone. This indicates changes to the local stress field, and may relate to fluid migration and/or the complicated tectonic situation. The West Bohemia Seismic Network (WEBNET) is ideally located for studying the Nový Kostel swarm area and provides good azimuthal coverage. Here, we use the high quality P- and S-wave arrival picks recorded by WEBNET to calculate swarm-dependent velocity models for the 2008 and 2011 swarms, and an averaged (swarm independent) model using earthquakes recorded between 1991 and 2011. To this end, we use double-difference tomography to calculate P- and S-wave velocity models. The models are compared and examined in terms of swarm-dependent velocities and structures. Since the P-to-S velocity ratio is particularly sensitive to the presence of pore fluids, we derive ratio models directly from the inverted P- and S-wave models in order to investigate the potential influence of fluids on the seismicity. Finally, clustering

  16. Application of mass-spring model in seismic analysis of liquid storage tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jiayi; Bai Xinran; Li Xiaoxuan


    There are many tanks for storing liquid in nuclear power plant. When seismic analysis is performed, swaying of liquid may change the mechanical parameters of those tanks, such as the center of mass and the moment of inertia, etc., so the load due to swaying of liquid can't be neglected. Mass-spring model is a simplified model to calculate the dynamic pressure of liquid in tank under earthquake, which is derived by the theory of Housner and given in the specification of seismic analysis of Safety-Related Nuclear Structures and Commentary-4-98 (ASCE-4-98 for short hereinafter). According to the theory of Housner and ASCE-4-98, the mass-spring 3-D FEM model for storage tank and liquid in it was established, by which the force of stored liquid acted on liquid storage tank in nuclear power plant under horizontal seismic load was calculated. The calculated frequency of liquid swaying and effect of liquid convection on storage tank were compared with those calculated by simplified formula. It is shown that the results of 3-D FEM model are reasonable and reliable. Further more, it is more direct and convenient compared with description in ASCE-4-98 when the mass-spring model is applied to 3-D FEM model for seismic analysis, from which the displacement and stress distributions of the plate-shell elements or the 3-D solid finite elements can be obtained directly from the seismic input model. (authors)

  17. The effect of regional variation of seismic wave attenuation on the strong ground motion from earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, D.H.; Bernreuter, D.L.


    Attenuation is caused by geometric spreading and absorption. Geometric spreading is almost independent of crustal geology and physiographic region, but absorption depends strongly on crustal geology and the state of the earth's upper mantle. Except for very high frequency waves, absorption does not affect ground motion at distances less than about 25 to 50 km. Thus, in the near-field zone, the attenuation in the eastern United States is similar to that in the western United States. Beyond the near field, differences in ground motion can best be accounted for by differences in attenuation caused by differences in absorption. The stress drop of eastern earthquakes may be higher than for western earthquakes of the same seismic moment, which would affect the high-frequency spectral content. But we believe this factor is of much less significance than differences in absorption in explaining the differences in ground motion between the East and the West. The characteristics of strong ground motion in the conterminous United States are discussed in light of these considerations, and estimates are made of the epicentral ground motions in the central and eastern United States. (author)

  18. Volcanic activity observed from continuous seismic records in the region of the Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes (United States)

    Shapiro, N.; Droznin, D.; Droznina, S.; Senyukov, S.; Chebrov, V.; Gordeev, E.; Frank, W.


    We analyze continuous seismic records from 18 permanent stations operated in vicinity of the Klyuchevskoy group of volcanos (Kamchatka, Russia) during the period between 2009 and 2014. We explore the stability of the inter-station cross-correlation to detect different periods of sustained emission from seismic energy. The main idea of this approach is that cross-correlation waveforms computed from a wavefield emitted by a seismic source from a fixed position remain stable during the period when this source is acting. The detected periods of seismic emission correspond to different episodes of activity of volcanoes: Klyuchevskoy, Tolbachik, Shiveluch, and Kizimen. For Klyuchevskoy and Tolbachik whose recent eruptions are mostly effusive, the detected seismic signals correspond to typical volcanic tremor, likely caused by degassing processes. For Shiveluch and Kizimen producing more silicic lavas, the observed seismic emission often consists of many repetitive long period (LP) seismic events that might be related to the extrusion of viscous magmas. We develop an approach for automatic detection of these individual LP events in order to characterize variations of their size and recurrence in time.

  19. Body wave travel times and amplitudes for present-day seismic model of Mars (United States)

    Raevskiy, Sergey; Gudkova, Tamara

    At the moment Martian interior structure models are constrained by the satellite observational data (the mass, the moment of inertia factor, the Love number k _{2}) (Konopliv et al., 2011) and high pressure experimental data (Bertka and Fei, 1997). Seismological observations could provide unparalleled capability for studying Martian interiors. Future missions include seismic experiments on Mars (Lognonné et al., 2012). The main instrument for these seismic experiments is a broadband seismometer (Robert et al., 2012). When seismic measurements are not yet available, physically consistent interior models, characterized by properties of relevant minerals, make possible to study of the seismic response of the planet. \\To estimate travel times for direct P, S, core reflected PcP, ScS and core refracted PKP body waves as a function of epicentral distance and hypocentral depth, as well as their amplitudes at the surface for a given marsquake, software product was developed in MatLab, as it encompasses many plotting routines that plot resulting travel times and ray paths. The computational results have been compared with the program TTBox (Knapmeyer, 2004). The code computes seismic ray paths and travel times for a one-dimentional spherical interior model (density and seismic velocities are functions of a radius only). Calculations of travel times tables for direct P, S, core reflected PcP, ScS and core refracted PKP waves and their amplitudes are carried out for a trial seismic model of Mars M14_3 from (Zharkov et al., 2009): the core radius is 1800 km, the thickness of the crust is 50 km. Direct and core reflected P and S waves are recorded to a maximum epicentral distance equal to about 100(°) , and PKP arrivals can be detected for epicental distances larger than 150(°) . The shadow zone is getting wider in comparison with previous results (Knapmeyer, 2010), as the liquid core radius of the seismic model under consideration is larger. Based on the estimates of

  20. Nature of the uppermost mantle below the Porcupine Basin, offshore Ireland: new insights from seismic refraction and gravity data modeling (United States)

    Prada, M.; Watremez, L.; Chen, C.; O'Reilly, B.; Minshull, T. A.; Reston, T. J.; Wagner, G.; Gaw, V.; Klaeschen, D.; Shannon, P.


    The Porcupine Basin is a tongue-shaped basin SW of Ireland formed during the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean. Its history of sedimentation reveals several rifting and subsidence phases during the Late Paleozoic and Cenozoic, with a particular major rift phase occurring in Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous times. Previous work, focused on seismic and gravity data, suggest the presence of major crustal faulting and uppermost mantle serpentinization in the basin. Serpentinization is a key factor in lithospheric extension since it reduces the strength of mantle rocks, and hence, influences the tectonics of the lithosphere. Besides reducing the seismic velocity of the rock, serpentinization decreases mantle rock density favoring isostatic rebound and basin uplift, thus affecting the tectonic and thermal evolution of the basin. Here we characterize the deep structure of the Porcupine Basin from wide-angle seismic (WAS) and gravity data, with especial emphasis on the nature of the underlying mantle. The WAS data used were acquired along a 300 km long transect across the northern region of the basin. We used a travel time inversion method to model the data and obtain a P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the crust and uppermost mantle, together with the geometry of the main geological interfaces. The crustal structure along the model reveals a maximum stretching factor of ~5-6. These values are well within the range of crustal extension at which the crust becomes entirely brittle allowing the formation of major crustal faulting and serpentinization of the mantle. To further constrain the seismic structure and hence the nature of the mantle we assess the Vp uncertainty of the model by means of a Monte Carlo analysis and perform gravity modeling to test different interpretations regarding mantle rock nature. This project is funded by the Irish Shelf Petroleum Studies Group (ISPSG) of the Irish Petroleum Infrastructure Programme Group 4.

  1. Seismic hazard assessment in central Ionian Islands area (Greece) based on stress release models (United States)

    Votsi, Irene; Tsaklidis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria


    The long-term probabilistic seismic hazard of central Ionian Islands (Greece) is studied through the application of stress release models. In order to identify statistically distinct regions, the study area is divided into two subareas, namely Kefalonia and Lefkada, on the basis of seismotectonic properties. Previous results evidenced the existence of stress transfer and interaction between the Kefalonia and Lefkada fault segments. For the consideration of stress transfer and interaction, the linked stress release model is applied. A new model is proposed, where the hazard rate function in terms of X(t) has the form of the Weibull distribution. The fitted models are evaluated through residual analysis and the best of them is selected through the Akaike information criterion. Based on AIC, the results demonstrate that the simple stress release model fits the Ionian data better than the non-homogeneous Poisson and the Weibull models. Finally, the thinning simulation method is applied in order to produce simulated data and proceed to forecasting.

  2. Seismic attenuation relationship with homogeneous and heterogeneous prediction-error variance models (United States)

    Mu, He-Qing; Xu, Rong-Rong; Yuen, Ka-Veng


    Peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice. One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula, which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude, the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties. In the present study, the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an efficiency-robustness balanced formula is proposed. For this purpose, a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship. In this approach, each model class (a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data. The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fitting capability and the sensitivity to noise. A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis. The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database. It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1993).

  3. A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran (United States)

    Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza


    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

  4. Continuous updating of a coupled reservoir-seismic model using an ensemble Kalman filter technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skjervheim, Jan-Arild


    This work presents the development of a method based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for continuous reservoir model updating with respect to the combination of production data, 3D seismic data and time-lapse seismic data. The reservoir-seismic model system consists of a commercial reservoir simulator coupled to existing rock physics and seismic modelling software. The EnKF provides an ideal-setting for real time updating and prediction in reservoir simulation models, and has been applied to synthetic models and real field cases from the North Sea. In the EnKF method, static parameters as the porosity and permeability, and dynamic variables, as fluid saturations and pressure, are updated in the reservoir model at each step data become available. In addition, we have updated a lithology parameter (clay ratio) which is linked to the rock physics model, and the fracture density in a synthetic fractured reservoir. In the EnKF experiments we have assimilated various types of production and seismic data. Gas oil ratio (GOR), water cut (WCT) and bottom-hole pressure (BHP) are used in the data assimilation. Furthermore, inverted seismic data, such as Poisson's ratio and acoustic impedance, and seismic waveform data have been assimilated. In reservoir applications seismic data may introduce a large amount of data in the assimilation schemes, and the computational time becomes expensive. In this project efficient EnKF schemes are used to handle such large datasets, where challenging aspects such as the inversion of a large covariance matrix and potential loss of rank are considered. Time-lapse seismic data may be difficult to assimilate since they are time difference data, i.e. data which are related to the model variable at two or more time instances. Here we have presented a general sequential Bayesian formulation which incorporates time difference data, and we show that the posterior distribution includes both a filter and a smoother solution. Further, we show

  5. New Frontiers on Seismic Modeling of Masonry Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore Caddemi


    Full Text Available An accurate evaluation of the non-linear behavior of masonry structural elements in existing buildings still represents a complex issue that rigorously requires non-linear finite element strategies difficult to apply to real large structures. Nevertheless, for the static and seismic assessment of existing structures, involving the contribution of masonry materials, engineers need reliable and efficient numerical tools, whose complexity and computational demand should be suitable for practical purposes. For these reasons, the formulation and the validation of simplified numerical strategies represent a very important issue in masonry computational research. In this paper, an innovative macroelement approach, developed by the authors in the last decade, is presented. The proposed macroelement formulation is based on different, plane and spatial, macroelements for the simulation of both the in-plane and out-of-plane behavior of masonry structures also in presence of masonry elements with curved geometry. The mechanical response of the adopted macroelement is governed by non-linear zero-thickness interfaces, whose calibration follows a straightforward fiber discretization, and the non-linear internal shear deformability is ruled by equivalence with a corresponding geometrically consistent homogenized medium. The approach can be considered as “parsimonious” since the kinematics of the adopted elements is controlled by very few degrees of freedom, if compared to a corresponding discretization performed by using non-linear finite element method strategies. This innovative discrete element strategy has been implemented in two user-oriented software codes 3DMacro (Caliò et al., 2012b and HiStrA (Historical Structures Analysis (Caliò et al., 2015, which simplify the modeling of buildings and historical structures by means of several wizard generation tools and input/output facilities. The proposed approach, that represents a powerful tool for the

  6. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.


    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  7. PICTURES (Pisagua/Iquique Crustal Tomography to Understand the Region of the Earthquake Source): seismic imaging of the source region of the April 1, 2014 Mw 8.2 earthquake offshore northern Chile (United States)

    Trehu, A. M.


    The 2014 event partially filled a well-recognized seismic gap that had not experienced a large earthquake since a pair of devastating M9 events in 1868 and 1877. The rupture sequence was marked by an unusually long and distinct precursory period that was well recorded by onshore seismic and geodetic instruments of the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). The pattern of foreshock activity, which defined a "classic" Mogi donut, is correlated with a circular residual gravity high that surrounds the patch of greatest slip during the main shock. Aftershocks generally propagated to the south and stopped in a region of relatively low pre-earthquake coupling. The remaining nearly 300-km long seismic gap is correlated with a distinct forearc residual gravity high. The correlation between the pre-, syn- and post-earthquake deformation patterns and the residual gravity anomalies indicates that crustal structure affects the distribution of seismic and aseismic deformation in response to plate convergence. Because the non-uniqueness inherent in modeling gravity data does not allow for a detailed geologic interpretation of the correlation between structure and slip, we conducted an ambitious seismic experiment using the R/V Marcus Langseth to acquire 5000 km of multichannel seismic seismic data using an 8-12.5-km long streamer and a 6600 cubic inch tuned air-gun array. The 45000 shots were also recorded on 70 ocean-bottom and 50 land-based seismometers. Shipboard analysis of the data indicates that the Moho of the Nazca plate is well imaged west of the trench, that deformation is distributed throughout the outer 10 km of the accretionary wedge as the rough topography of the Nazca plate is subducted, and that a reflection tentatively interpreted to be the plate boundary can be imaged continuously from the trench to the coast on at least one transect across the margin. Post-cruise data analysis is underway to process the MCS data using various techniques to

  8. The finite-difference and finite-element modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moszo, P.; Kristek, J.; Galis, M.; Pazak, P.; Balazovijech, M.


    Numerical modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion is an irreplaceable tool in investigation of the Earth's structure, processes in the Earth, and particularly earthquake phenomena. Among various numerical methods, the finite-difference method is the dominant method in the modeling of earthquake motion. Moreover, it is becoming more important in the seismic exploration and structural modeling. At the same time we are convinced that the best time of the finite-difference method in seismology is in the future. This monograph provides tutorial and detailed introduction to the application of the finite-difference, finite-element, and hybrid finite-difference-finite-element methods to the modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion. The text does not cover all topics and aspects of the methods. We focus on those to which we have contributed. (Author)

  9. Time-lapse seismic waveform modelling and attribute analysis using hydromechanical models for a deep reservoir undergoing depletion (United States)

    He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.


    Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and

  10. A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models (United States)

    Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.


    Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.

  11. Developments of Finite-Frequency Seismic Theory and Applications to Regional Tomographic Imaging (United States)


    Seism . Soc. Am. 94, 1690–1705, doi 10.1785/012004016. Kennett, B. L. N. (1983). Seismic Wave Propagation in Stratified Media, Cambridge University...Vilotte (1998). The spectral-element method: an efficient tool to simulate the seismic response of 2D and 3D, geolog- ical structures, Bull. Seism ...Crosson (1990). Determination of teleseismic relative phase arrival times using multi-channel cross-correlation and least squares, Bull. Seism . Soc

  12. Study of Site Effect at Seismic Station Located in Undermined Area of Karviná Region (Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lednická, Markéta; Kaláb, Zdeněk


    Roč. 64, č. 5 (2016), s. 1715-1730 ISSN 1895-7455 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-07027P Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Karviná region * site effect * SSR * HVSR * mining induced seismic ity Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering Impact factor: 0.968, year: 2016

  13. Mathematical models of seismics in composite media: elastic and poro-elastic components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anvarbek Meirmanov


    Full Text Available In the present paper we consider elastic and poroelastic media having a common interface. We derive the macroscopic mathematical models for seismic wave propagation through these two different media as a homogenization of the exact mathematical model at the microscopic level. They consist of seismic equations for each component and boundary conditions at the common interface, which separates different media. To do this we use the two-scale expansion method in the corresponding integral identities, defining the weak solution. We illustrate our results with the numerical implementations of the inverse problem for the simplest model.

  14. Three-dimensional seismic velocity models, high-precision earthquake locations and their implications for seismic, tectonic and magmatic settings in the Coso Geothermal Field, California (United States)

    Zhang, Q.; Lin, G.


    The Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) lies at the east of Sierra Nevada and is situated in tectonically active area with the presence of hot spring, rhyolite domes at the surface, strike-slip and normal faulting and frequent seismic activity. In this study, we present our comprehensive analysis of three-dimensional velocity structure, high-precision earthquake relocation and in situ Vp/Vs estimates. We select 1,893 master events among 177,000 events between 1981 and 2011 recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network stations. High-resolution three-dimensional (3-D) Vp and Vp/Vs models in Coso are inverted from the master events with 52,160 P- and 23,688 S-wave first arrivals by using the SIMUL2000 algorithm. The tomographic model reveals slightly high Vp and Vp/Vs in most regions of Coso near the surface compared to the layers at depth of 6 and 12 km, which is consistent with the fact that the Coso area is filled with diorite and minor basalt. The feature of low Vp, low Vs and low Vp/Vs between 6 and 12 km depths underneath the CGF can be related to the porous, gas-filled rock or volatile-rich magma. The low Vp, low Vs and low Vp/Vs structure from the surface to 3 km depth beneath the Indian Wells Valley is consistent with the existence of the 2 km deep sediment strata revealed by the borehole data. The resulting new 3-D velocity model is used to improve the absolute event location accuracy. We then apply waveform cross-correlation, similar event cluster analysis and differential time relocation methods to improve relative event location accuracy with the horizontal and vertical location uncertainties in tens of meters. The relocated seismicity indicates that the brittle-ductile transition depth is as shallow as 5 km underneath the CGF. We also estimate in situ near-source Vp/Vs ratio within each event cluster using differential times from cross-correlation to complement the Vp/Vs model from tomographic inversions, which will help to estimate the volume fraction of

  15. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California (United States)

    Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.


    CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and

  16. Aseismic and seismic slip induced by fluid injection from poroelastic and rate-state friction modeling (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Deng, K.; Harrington, R. M.; Clerc, F.


    Solid matrix stress change and pore pressure diffusion caused by fluid injection has been postulated as key factors for inducing earthquakes and aseismic slip on pre-existing faults. In this study, we have developed a numerical model that simulates aseismic and seismic slip in a rate-and-state friction framework with poroelastic stress perturbations from multi-stage hydraulic fracturing scenarios. We apply the physics-based model to the 2013-2015 earthquake sequences near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada, where three magnitude 4.5 earthquakes were potentially induced by nearby hydraulic fracturing activity. In particular, we use the relocated December 2013 seismicity sequence to approximate the fault orientation, and find the seismicity migration spatiotemporally correlate with the positive Coulomb stress changes calculated from the poroelastic model. When the poroelastic stress changes are introduced to the rate-state friction model, we find that slip on the fault evolves from aseismic to seismic in a manner similar to the onset of seismicity. For a 15-stage hydraulic fracturing that lasted for 10 days, modeled fault slip rate starts to accelerate after 3 days of fracking, and rapidly develops into a seismic event, which also temporally coincides with the onset of induced seismicity. The poroelastic stress perturbation and consequently fault slip rate continue to evolve and remain high for several weeks after hydraulic fracturing has stopped, which may explain the continued seismicity after shut-in. In a comparison numerical experiment, fault slip rate quickly decreases to the interseismic level when stress perturbations are instantaneously returned to zero at shut-in. Furthermore, when stress perturbations are removed just a few hours after the fault slip rate starts to accelerate (that is, hydraulic fracturing is shut down prematurely), only aseismic slip is observed in the model. Our preliminary results thus suggest the design of fracturing duration and flow

  17. Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Frankel, Arthur D.


    The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

  18. Construction of the seismic wave-speed model by adjoint tomography beneath the Japanese metropolitan area (United States)

    Miyoshi, Takayuki


    The Japanese metropolitan area has high risks of earthquakes and volcanoes associated with convergent tectonic plates. It is important to clarify detail three-dimensional structure for understanding tectonics and predicting strong motion. Classical tomographic studies based on ray theory have revealed seismotectonics and volcanic tectonics in the region, however it is unknown whether their models reproduce observed seismograms. In the present study, we construct new seismic wave-speed model by using waveform inversion. Adjoint tomography and the spectral element method (SEM) were used in the inversion (e.g. Tape et al. 2009; Peter et al. 2011). We used broadband seismograms obtained at NIED F-net stations for 140 earthquakes occurred beneath the Kanto district. We selected four frequency bands between 5 and 30 sec and used from the seismograms of longer period bands for the inversion. Tomographic iteration was conducted until obtaining the minimized misfit between data and synthetics. Our SEM model has 16 million grid points that covers the metropolitan area of the Kanto district. The model parameters were the Vp and Vs of the grid points, and density and attenuation were updated to new values depending on new Vs in each iteration. The initial model was assumed the tomographic model (Matsubara and Obara 2011) based on ray theory. The source parameters were basically used from F-net catalog, while the centroid times were inferred from comparison between data and synthetics. We simulated the forward and adjoint wavefields of each event and obtained Vp and Vs misfit kernels from their interaction. Large computation was conducted on K computer, RIKEN. We obtained final model (m16) after 16 iterations in the present study. For the waveform improvement, it is clearly shown that m16 is better than the initial model, and the seismograms especially improved in the frequency bands of longer than 8 sec and changed better for seismograms of the events occurred at deeper than a

  19. Erosional valleys in the Thaumasia region of Mars: Hydrothermal and seismic origins (United States)

    Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Dohm, James M.; Lias, Juan H.; Hare, Trent M.


    Analysis of erosional valleys, geologic materials and features, and topography through time in the Thaumasia region of Mars using co-registered digital spatial data sets reveals significant associations that relate to valley origin. Valleys tend to originate (1) on Noachian to Early Hesperian (stages 1 and 2) large volcanoes, (2) within 50-100 km of stages 1 and 2 rift systems, and (3) within 100 km of Noachian (stage 1) impact craters >50 km in diameter. These geologic preferences explain observations of higher valley-source densities (VSDs) in areas of higher elevations and regional slopes (>1°) because the volcanoes, rifts, and craters form high, steep topography or occur in terrain of high relief. Other stage 1 and stage 2 high, steep terrains, however, do not show high VSDs. The tendency for valleys to concentrate near geologic features and the overall low drainage densities in Thaumasia compared to terrestrial surfaces rule out widespread precipitation as a major factor in valley formation (as is proposed in warm, wet climate scenarios) except perhaps during the Early Noachian, for which much of the geologic record has been obliterated. Instead, volcanoes and rifts may indicate the presence of shallow crustal intrusions that could lead to local hydrothermal circulation, melting of ground ice and snow, and groundwater sapping. However, impact-crater melt would provide a heat source at the surface that might drive away water, forming valleys in the process. Post-stage 1 craters mostly have low nearby VSDs, which, for valleys incised in older rocks, suggests burial by ejecta and, for younger valleys, may indicate desiccation of near-surface water and deepening of the cryosphere. Later Hesperian and Amazonian (stages 3 and 4) valleys originate within 100-200 km of three young, large impact craters and near rifts systems at Warrego Valles and the southern part of Coprates rise. These valleys likely developed when the cryosphere was a couple kilometers or more

  20. Homogenised constitutive model dedicated to reinforced concrete plates subjected to seismic solicitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combescure, Christelle


    Safety reassessments are periodically performed on the EDF nuclear power plants and the recent seismic reassessments leaded to the necessity of taking into account the non-linear behaviour of materials when modeling and simulating industrial structures of these power plants under seismic solicitations. A large proportion of these infrastructures is composed of reinforced concrete buildings, including reinforced concrete slabs and walls, and literature seems to be poor on plate modeling dedicated to seismic applications for this material. As for the few existing models dedicated to these specific applications, they present either a lack of dissipation energy in the material behaviour, or no micromechanical approach that justifies the parameters needed to properly describe the model. In order to provide a constitutive model which better represents the reinforced concrete plate behaviour under seismic loadings and whose parameters are easier to identify for the civil engineer, a constitutive model dedicated to reinforced concrete plates under seismic solicitations is proposed: the DHRC (Dissipative Homogenised Reinforced Concrete) model. Justified by a periodic homogenisation approach, this model includes two dissipative phenomena: damage of concrete matrix and internal sliding at the interface between steel rebar and surrounding concrete. An original coupling term between damage and sliding, resulting from the homogenisation process, induces a better representation of energy dissipation during the material degradation. The model parameters are identified from the geometric characteristics of the plate and a restricted number of material characteristics, allowing a very simple use of the model. Numerical validations of the DHRC model are presented, showing good agreement with experimental behaviour. A one dimensional simplification of the DHRC model is proposed, allowing the representation of reinforced concrete bars and simplified models of rods and wire mesh

  1. Velocity Model Analysis Based on Integrated Well and Seismic Data of East Java Basin (United States)

    Mubin, Fathul; Widya, Aviandy; Eka Nurcahya, Budi; Nurul Mahmudah, Erma; Purwaman, Indro; Radityo, Aryo; Shirly, Agung; Nurwani, Citra


    Time to depth conversion is an important processof seismic interpretationtoidentify hydrocarbonprospectivity. Main objectives of this research are to minimize the risk of error in geometry and time to depth conversion. Since it’s using a large amount of data and had been doing in the large scale of research areas, this research can be classified as a regional scale research. The research was focused on three horizons time interpretation: Top Kujung I, Top Ngimbang and Basement which located in the offshore and onshore areas of east Java basin. These three horizons was selected because they were assumed to be equivalent to the rock formation, which is it has always been the main objective of oil and gas exploration in the East Java Basin. As additional value, there was no previous works on velocity modeling for regional scale using geological parameters in East Java basin. Lithology and interval thickness were identified as geological factors that effected the velocity distribution in East Java Basin. Therefore, a three layer geological model was generated, which was defined by the type of lithology; carbonate (layer 1: Top Kujung I), shale (layer 2: Top Ngimbang) and Basement. A statistical method using three horizons is able to predict the velocity distribution on sparse well data in a regional scale. The average velocity range for Top Kujung I is 400 m/s - 6000 m/s, Top Ngimbang is 500 m/s - 8200 m/s and Basement is 600 m/s - 8000 m/s. Some velocity anomalies found in Madura sub-basin area, caused by geological factor which identified as thick shale deposit and high density values on shale. Result of velocity and depth modeling analysis can be used to define the volume range deterministically and to make geological models to prospect generation in details by geological concept.

  2. Predictability in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity (United States)

    Helmstetter, AgnèS.; Sornette, Didier


    As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity on the basis of interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS). The ETAS model is constructed on a bare (unrenormalized) Omori law, the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks. For simplicity, we do not use the information on the spatial location of earthquakes and work only in the time domain. We demonstrate the essential role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source. We offer an analytical approach to account for the yet unobserved triggered seismicity adapted to the problem of forecasting future seismic rates at varying horizons from the present. Tests presented on synthetic catalogs validate strongly the importance of taking into account all the cascades of still unobserved triggered events in order to predict correctly the future level of seismicity beyond a few minutes. We find a strong predictability if one accepts to predict only a small fraction of the large-magnitude targets. Specifically, we find a prediction gain (defined as the ratio of the fraction of predicted events over the fraction of time in alarms) equal to 21 for a fraction of alarm of 1%, a target magnitude M ≥ 6, an update time of 0.5 days between two predictions, and for realistic parameters of the ETAS model. However, the probability gains degrade fast when one attempts to predict a larger fraction of the targets. This is because a significant fraction of events remain uncorrelated from past seismicity. This delineates the fundamental limits underlying forecasting skills, stemming from an intrinsic stochastic component in these interacting triggered seismicity models. Quantitatively, the fundamental

  3. Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region (United States)

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Bakun, W.H.; Flores, C.H.


    We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The attenuation relationship for Hispaniola earthquakes and northern Lesser Antilles earthquakes is similar to that for California earthquakes, indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance. Intensities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands decrease less rapidly with distance. We use the intensity-magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude MI which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes. Many events occurred in the 20th-century along the plate-boundary segment from central Hispaniola to the NW tip of Puerto Rico, but earlier events from this segment were not identified. The remaining plate boundary to the east to Guadeloupe is probably not associated with M > 8 historical subduction-zone earthquakes. The May 2, 1787 earthquake, previously assigned an M 8–8.25, is probably only MI 6.9 and could be located north, west or SW of Puerto Rico. An MI 6.9 earthquake on July 11, 1785 was probably located north or east of the Virgin Islands. We located MI I 7.7) and May 7, 1842 (MI 7.6) earthquakes ruptured the Septentrional Fault in northern Hispaniola. If so, the recurrence interval on the central Septentrional Fault is ~300 years, and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event. The recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record. Intra-arc M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur every 75–100 years in the 410-km-long segment between the Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe.

  4. THMC Modeling of EGS Reservoirs -- Continuum through Discontinuum Representations. Capturing Reservoir Stimulation, Evolution and Induced Seismicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsworth, Derek [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Izadi, Ghazal [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Gan, Quan [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Fang, Yi [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Taron, Josh [US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Sonnenthal, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)


    This work has investigated the roles of effective stress induced by changes in fluid pressure, temperature and chemistry in contributing to the evolution of permeability and induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs. This work has developed continuum models [1] to represent the progress or seismicity during both stimulation [2] and production [3]. These methods have been used to resolve anomalous observations of induced seismicity at the Newberry Volcano demonstration project [4] through the application of modeling and experimentation. Later work then focuses on the occurrence of late stage seismicity induced by thermal stresses [5] including the codifying of the timing and severity of such responses [6]. Furthermore, mechanistic linkages between observed seismicity and the evolution of permeability have been developed using data from the Newberry project [7] and benchmarked against field injection experiments. Finally, discontinuum models [8] incorporating the roles of discrete fracture networks have been applied to represent stimulation and then thermal recovery for new arrangements of geothermal wells incorporating the development of flow manifolds [9] in order to increase thermal output and longevity in EGS systems.

  5. How a joint interpretation of seismic scattering, velocity, and attenuation models explains the nature of the Campi Flegrei (Italy). (United States)

    Calo, M.; Tramelli, A.


    Seismic P and S velocity models (and their ratio Vp/Vs) help illuminating the geometrical structure of the bodies and give insight on the presence of water, molten or gas saturated regions. Seismic attenuation represents the anelastic behavior of the medium. Due to its dependence on temperature, fluid contents and cracks presence, this parameter is also largely used to characterize the structures of volcanoes and geothermal areas. Scattering attenuation is related, in the upper crust, to the amount, size and organization of the fractures giving complementary information on the state of the medium.Therefore a joint interpretation of these models provides an exhaustive view of the elastic parameters in volcanic regions. Campi Flegrei is an active Caldera marked by strong vertical deformations of the ground called bradyseisms and several models have been proposed to describe the nature and the geometry of the bodies responsible of the bradyseisms. Here we show Vp, Vp/Vs, Qp and scattering models carried out by applying an enhanced seismic tomography method that combines de double difference approach (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) and the Weigthed Average Method (Calò et al., 2009, Calò et al., 2011, 2013). The data used are the earthquakes recorded during the largest bradyseism crisis of the 80's. Our method allowed to image structures with linear dimension of 0.5-1.2km, resulting in an improvement of the resolving power at least two times of the other published models (e.g. Priolo et al., 2012). The joint interpretation of seismic models allowed to discern small anomalous bodies at shallow depth (0.5-2.0 km) marked by relatively low Vp, high Vp/Vs ratio and low Qp values associated with the presence of shallow geothermal water saturated reservoir from regions with low Vp, low Vp/Vs and low Qp related to the gas saturated part of the reservoir. At deeper depth (2-3.5 km) bodies with high Vp and Vp/Vs and low Qp are associated with magmatic intrusions. The Scattering

  6. Coupled continuum modeling of fracture reactivation and induced seismicity during enhanced geothermal operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassing, B.B.T.; Wees, J.D. van; Fokker, P.A.


    We constructed a coupled model to obtain a better understanding of the role of pore pressure changes in causing fracture reactivation and seismicity during enhanced geothermal systems operation (EGS). We implemented constitutive models for fractures in a continuum approach, which is advantageous

  7. On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Vorobieva


    Full Text Available The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.

  8. A magma chamber model beneath Unzen Volcano inferred from geodetic and seismic data using FEM (United States)

    Kohno, Y.; Matsumoto, S.; Matsushima, T.; Uehira, K.; Umakoshi, K.; Shimizu, H.


    A supplying system of the magma beneath Unzen volcano has been proposed using both geodetic and seismic data simultaneously. Spatial variation of geodetic data is affected by change of magma body in both of shape and pressure. In most cases, relative stress field is able to be inferred from focal mechanisms of earthquakes. This changing also disturbs stress field in the region around the magma chamber. A model about shape and internal pressure of magma chamber is constrained by mean of both grounds deformation and focal mechanism. Unzen Volcano is the massive volcanic complex, located in the middle part of Kyushu Island, Japan, erupted accompanying by pyroclastic flows and formed a huge lava dome at the summit during 1990-1995. Based on geodetic data during period 1991-2004, a magma chamber model composed of four pressure sources was constructed by grid search method (Kohno et al., 2008). For the data with greater crustal deformation observed in 1992-93 and 1993-94, we applied finite element method (FEM) to model the magma chamber. Especially, shape of a pressure source at a depth of 7 km (C-source) was also estimated in this searching process. C-source during 1992-93 has an oblate spheroid with south-southwest dip oriented made good correlation with observation data. Regards only from ground deformation data, the length of the major axis is smaller than 3km. The shape sustains to an idea that magma ascends easily toward the shallower chamber. The best solution of C-source in 1993-94 was obtained as a prolate spheroid source with north dip oriented. This latter source is smaller size and dipping to opposite side with the previous one. Although they are separated at distance of 1 km, this is not far to call different magma chamber each other. Different shape indicated that inhomogeneous structure of magma chamber. From this arrangement of the sources, we considered a model that the magma chamber at a depth of about 7 km could be composed of small magma chambers like

  9. An integrated geodetic and seismic study of the Cusco Fault system in the Cusco Region-Southern Peru (United States)

    Norabuena, E. O.; Tavera, H. J.


    The Cusco Fault system is composed by six main faults (Zurite, Tamboray, Qoricocha, Tambomachay, Pachatusan, and Urcos) extending in a NW-SE direction over the Cusco Region in southeastern Peru. From these, the Tambomachay is a normal fault of 20 km length, strikes N120°E and bounds a basin filled with quaternary lacustrine and fluvial deposits. Given its 5 km distance to Cusco, an historical and Inca's archeological landmark, it represents a great seismic hazard for its more than 350,000 inhabitants. The Tambomachay fault as well as the other secondary faults have been a source of significant seismic activity since historical times being the more damaging ones the Cusco earthquakes of 1650, 1950 and more recently April 1986 (M 5.8). Previous geological studies indicate that at the beginning of the Quaternary the fault showed a transcurrent mechanism leading to the formation of the Cusco basin. However, nowadays its mechanism is normal fault and scarps up to 22m can be observed. We report the current dynamics of the Tambomachay fault and secondary faults based on seismic activity imaged by a network of 29 broadband stations deployed in the Cusco Region as well as the deformation field inferred from GPS survey measurements carried out between 2014 and 2016.

  10. Initialising reservoir models for history matching using pre-production 3D seismic data: constraining methods and uncertainties (United States)

    Niri, Mohammad Emami; Lumley, David E.


    Integration of 3D and time-lapse 4D seismic data into reservoir modelling and history matching processes poses a significant challenge due to the frequent mismatch between the initial reservoir model, the true reservoir geology, and the pre-production (baseline) seismic data. A fundamental step of a reservoir characterisation and performance study is the preconditioning of the initial reservoir model to equally honour both the geological knowledge and seismic data. In this paper we analyse the issues that have a significant impact on the (mis)match of the initial reservoir model with well logs and inverted 3D seismic data. These issues include the constraining methods for reservoir lithofacies modelling, the sensitivity of the results to the presence of realistic resolution and noise in the seismic data, the geostatistical modelling parameters, and the uncertainties associated with quantitative incorporation of inverted seismic data in reservoir lithofacies modelling. We demonstrate that in a geostatistical lithofacies simulation process, seismic constraining methods based on seismic litho-probability curves and seismic litho-probability cubes yield the best match to the reference model, even when realistic resolution and noise is included in the dataset. In addition, our analyses show that quantitative incorporation of inverted 3D seismic data in static reservoir modelling carries a range of uncertainties and should be cautiously applied in order to minimise the risk of misinterpretation. These uncertainties are due to the limited vertical resolution of the seismic data compared to the scale of the geological heterogeneities, the fundamental instability of the inverse problem, and the non-unique elastic properties of different lithofacies types.

  11. A Short Term Seismic Hazard Assessment in Christchurch, New Zealand, After the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield Earthquake: An Application of a Smoothing Kernel and Rate-and-State Friction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan


    Full Text Available The Mw 6.3, 21 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake is regarded as an aftershock of the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake. However, it caused severe damage in the downtown Christchurch. Such a circumstance points out the importance of an aftershock sequence in seismic hazard evaluation and suggests the re-evaluation of a seismic hazard immediately after a large earthquake occurrence. For this purpose, we propose a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, which takes the disturbance of a short-term seismicity rate into account and can be easily applied in comparison with the classical PSHA. In our approach, the treatment of the background seismicity rate is the same as in the zoneless approach, which considers a bandwidth function as a smoothing Kernel in neighboring region of earthquakes. The rate-and-state friction model imparted by the Coulomb stress change of large earthquakes is used to calculate the fault-interaction-based disturbance in seismicity rate for PSHA. We apply this approach to evaluate the seismic hazard in Christchurch after the occurrence of the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake. Results show an increase of seismic hazards due to the stress increase in the region around the rupture plane, which extended to Christchurch. This provides a suitable basis for the application of a time-dependent PSHA using updating earthquake information.

  12. Using Seismic Interferometry to Investigate Seismic Swarms (United States)

    Matzel, E.; Morency, C.; Templeton, D. C.


    Seismicity provides a direct means of measuring the physical characteristics of active tectonic features such as fault zones. Hundreds of small earthquakes often occur along a fault during a seismic swarm. This seismicity helps define the tectonically active region. When processed using novel geophysical techniques, we can isolate the energy sensitive to the fault, itself. Here we focus on two methods of seismic interferometry, ambient noise correlation (ANC) and the virtual seismometer method (VSM). ANC is based on the observation that the Earth's background noise includes coherent energy, which can be recovered by observing over long time periods and allowing the incoherent energy to cancel out. The cross correlation of ambient noise between a pair of stations results in a waveform that is identical to the seismogram that would result if an impulsive source located at one of the stations was recorded at the other, the Green function (GF). The calculation of the GF is often stable after a few weeks of continuous data correlation, any perturbations to the GF after that point are directly related to changes in the subsurface and can be used for 4D monitoring.VSM is a style of seismic interferometry that provides fast, precise, high frequency estimates of the Green's function (GF) between earthquakes. VSM illuminates the subsurface precisely where the pressures are changing and has the potential to image the evolution of seismicity over time, including changes in the style of faulting. With hundreds of earthquakes, we can calculate thousands of waveforms. At the same time, VSM collapses the computational domain, often by 2-3 orders of magnitude. This allows us to do high frequency 3D modeling in the fault region. Using data from a swarm of earthquakes near the Salton Sea, we demonstrate the power of these techniques, illustrating our ability to scale from the far field, where sources are well separated, to the near field where their locations fall within each other

  13. NEESROCK: A Physical and Numerical Modeling Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure (United States)

    Applegate, K. N.; Wartman, J.; Keefer, D. K.; Maclaughlin, M.; Adams, S.; Arnold, L.; Gibson, M.; Smith, S.


    Worldwide, seismically induced rock-slope failures have been responsible for approximately 30% of the most significant landslide catastrophes of the past century. They are among the most common, dangerous, and still today, least understood of all seismic hazards. Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure: Mechanisms and Prediction (NEESROCK) is a major research initiative that fully integrates physical modeling (geotechnical centrifuge) and advanced numerical simulations (discrete element modeling) to investigate the fundamental mechanisms governing the stability of rock slopes during earthquakes. The research is part of the National Science Foundation-supported Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Research (NEES) program. With its focus on fractures and rock materials, the project represents a significant departure from the traditional use of the geotechnical centrifuge for studying soil, and pushes the boundaries of physical modeling in new directions. In addition to advancing the fundamental understanding of the rock-slope failure process under seismic conditions, the project is developing improved rock-slope failure assessment guidelines, analysis procedures, and predictive tools. Here, we provide an overview of the project, present experimental and numerical modeling results, discuss special considerations for the use of synthetic rock materials in physical modeling, and address the suitability of discrete element modeling for simulating the dynamic rock-slope failure process.

  14. Complex structure of the lithospheric slab beneath the Banda arc, eastern Indonesia depicted by a seismic tomographic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Widiyantoro


    Full Text Available Seismic tomography with a non-linear approach has been successfully applied to image the P-wave velocity structure beneath the Banda arc in detail. Nearly one million compressional phases including the surfacereflected depth phases pP and pwP from events within the Indonesian region have been used. The depth phases have been incorporated in order to improve the sampling of the uppermantle structure, particularly below the Banda Sea in the back-arc regions. For the model parameterization, we have combined a highresolution regional inversion with a low-resolution global inversion to allow detailed images of slab structures within the study region and to minimize the mapping of distant aspherical mantle structure into the volume under study. In this paper, we focus our discussion on the upper mantle and transition zone structure beneath the curved Banda arc. The tomographic images confirm previous observations of the twisting of the slab in the upper mantle, forming a spoon-shaped structure beneath the Banda arc. A slab lying flat on the 660 km discontinuity beneath the Banda Sea is also well imaged. Further interpretations of the resulting tomograms and seismicity data support the scenario of the Banda arc subduction rollback.

  15. 3-D a Priori Model Constraints and Uncertainties for Improving Seismic Event Location (United States)

    Flanagan, M. P.; Myers, S. C.; Pasyanos, M. E.; Schultz, C. A.


    We investigate our ability to improve seismic event location in the Middle East, North Africa, and Western Eurasia (MENAWE) by using an a priori 3-D velocity model for the crust and upper mantle in lieu of more commonly used 1-D Earth models. We develop our composite velocity model based on published literature: a global sediment thickness map, a regionalized crustal model based on geology and tectonics, and an upper mantle model [Pasyanos et al., 2001]. We test a variety of mantle velocity models developed either from teleseismic travel-times [Gudmundsson and Sambridge, 1998] or from geodynamic estimates of temperature, pressure, and composition [Nataf and Ricard, 1996]. Using a 3-D finite difference technique we compute travel times through the model and produce station-specific correction surfaces relative to iasp91. We then use these model-based correction surfaces as additional constraints in our event location algorithm to relocate a set of ground truth (GT) events (the 1991 Racha aftershock sequence). Myers and Schult [2000], using empirical kriged correction surfaces and a 1-D velocity model applied to a test network, reduced the average location bias of this aftershock sequence from 42 km (using a 1-D velocity model alone) to 13 km. With our model-based correction surfaces we reduce this bias from 42 to 26 km using the travel-time mantle model and from 42 to 10 km using the geodynamic mantle model. This is a significant result showing the power of a priori 3-D models to improve location to almost the same degree as empirical corrections, within the GT uncertainty bounds. This test relocation samples only one part of our MENAWE model, and we are continuing to test the model in other areas using geographically diverse GT events. A larger data set of GT0-GT10 events is being collected and will be used to further evaluate the effectiveness of the a priori model for improving event location accuracy. We also plan to explore a variety of validation techniques (e

  16. A collision-based model for measuring bedload transport from the seismic waves generated by rivers (United States)

    Roth, D. L.; Finnegan, N. J.; Brodsky, E. E.; Stark, C. P.


    Accurately predicting rates of coarse sediment transport in river channels is a central goal of fluvial geomorphology and civil engineering. However, it is difficult to evaluate sediment transport and bedrock abrasion models in large rivers because quantitative measures of bedload transport are labor intensive and often dangerous to obtain in floods. Two recent studies show that the amplitude of seismic waves near rivers may record bedload flux, indicating that seismometers near rivers provide a potential means of monitoring bedload transport. In an effort to better interpret seismic waves generated by rivers, we seek a relationship between the variables governing bedload transport and seismic waves. Our approach relies on the fact that elastic waves are generated when momentum is transferred to the bed during a bedload particle impact. For an impacting particle of known mass and velocity, the momentum transfer can be computed from Hertzian impact theory. Here we combine analytic results based on Hertzian and elastic wave theories with empirical equations developed to describe the ballistics of bedload particles in terms of fluid shear stress and grain size. From this synthesis we arrive at a semi-analytic expression that predicts how the characteristic frequencies and amplitudes of seismic waves generated from saltating bedload particles should scale with fluid shear stress, grain size, and coarse sediment flux. Preliminary tests of our predictions using previously published and newly acquired laboratory data indicate that seismic signals near rivers can record information about the size, velocity and number of particles impacting the bed. Additionally, our analytical results help identify bedload transport events in seismic data collected along the Chijiawan River in Taiwan. Here the river is evolving rapidly in response to a dam removal - resulting in predictable changes in bedload transport efficiency in time and space that we can compare to local seismic data.

  17. Seismic properties of soil in the Eastern Baltiс Sea Region based on the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerijs Nikulins


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to estimate and compare seismic properties of soil under different geological conditions of the southern part of the Baltic Shield and the northwestern part of the East European Platform. Horizontal to vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs were estimated with respect to seismic stations of the Baltic Virtual Seismic Network (BAVSEN. The HVSRs were made based on the analysis of ambient seismic noise and regional seismic events. Distinct peak amplitudes of HVSRs for the stations located on the Baltic Shield, the southern slope of the Baltic Shield and the sedimentary cover of the northwestern part of East European Platform were revealed. The stability of amplitudes and frequencies of HVSR peaks, soil vulnerability index and interrelation between frequency and unconsolidated sediment thickness were estimated. The results can be of practical importance for the solution of problems of engineering seismology and for the assessment of dynamic properties of soil and vulnerability of buildings.

  18. Study on vertical seismic response model of BWR-type reactor building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konno, T.; Motohashi, S.; Izumi, M.; Iizuka, S.


    A study on advanced seismic design for LWR has been carried out by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), under the sponsorship of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan. As a part of the study, it has been investigated to construct an accurate analytical model of reactor buildings for a seismic response analysis, which can reasonably represent dynamic characteristics of the building. In Japan, vibration models of reactor buildings for horizontal ground motion have been studied and examined through many simulation analyses for forced vibration tests and earthquake observations of actual buildings. And now it is possible to establish a reliable horizontal vibration model on the basis of multi-lumped mass and spring model. However, vertical vibration models have not been so much studied as horizontal models, due to less observed data for vertical motions. In this paper, the vertical seismic response models of a BWR-type reactor building including soil-structure interaction effect are numerically studied, by comparing the dynamic characteristics of (1) three dimensional finite element model, (2) multi-stick lumped mass model with a flexible base-mat, (3) multi-stick lumped mass model with a rigid base-mat and (4) single-stick lumped mass model. In particular, the BWR-type reactor building has the long span truss roof which is considered to be one of the critical members to vertical excitation. The modelings of the roof trusses are also studied

  19. From Initial Models of Seismicity, Structure and Noise to Synthetic Seismograms for Mars (United States)

    Ceylan, Savas; van Driel, Martin; Euchner, Fabian; Khan, Amir; Clinton, John; Krischer, Lion; Böse, Maren; Stähler, Simon; Giardini, Domenico


    The InSight mission will land a single seismic station on Mars in November 2018, and the resultant seismicity catalog will be a key component for studies aiming to understand the interior structure of the planet. Here, we present a preliminary version of the web services that will be used to distribute the event and station metadata in practice, employing synthetic seismograms generated for Mars using a catalog of expected seismicity. Our seismicity catalog consists of 120 events with double-couple source mechanisms only. We also provide Green's functions databases for a total of 16 structural models, which are constructed to reflect one-dimensional thin (30 km) and thick (80 km) Martian crust with varying seismic wave speeds and densities, combined with two different profiles for temperature and composition for the mantle. Both the Green's functions databases and the precomputed seismograms are accessible online. These new utilities allow the researchers to either download the precomputed synthetic waveforms directly, or produce customized data sets using any desired source mechanism and event distribution via our servers.

  20. RegSEM: a versatile code based on the spectral element method to compute seismic wave propagation at the regional scale (United States)

    Cupillard, Paul; Delavaud, Elise; Burgos, Gaël.; Festa, Geatano; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Capdeville, Yann; Montagner, Jean-Paul


    The spectral element method, which provides an accurate solution of the elastodynamic problem in heterogeneous media, is implemented in a code, called RegSEM, to compute seismic wave propagation at the regional scale. By regional scale we here mean distances ranging from about 1 km (local scale) to 90° (continental scale). The advantage of RegSEM resides in its ability to accurately take into account 3-D discontinuities such as the sediment-rock interface and the Moho. For this purpose, one version of the code handles local unstructured meshes and another version manages continental structured meshes. The wave equation can be solved in any velocity model, including anisotropy and intrinsic attenuation in the continental version. To validate the code, results from RegSEM are compared to analytical and semi-analytical solutions available in simple cases (e.g. explosion in PREM, plane wave in a hemispherical basin). In addition, realistic simulations of an earthquake in different tomographic models of Europe are performed. All these simulations show the great flexibility of the code and point out the large influence of the shallow layers on the propagation of seismic waves at the regional scale. RegSEM is written in Fortran 90 but it also contains a couple of C routines. It is an open-source software which runs on distributed memory architectures. It can give rise to interesting applications, such as testing regional tomographic models, developing tomography using either passive (i.e. noise correlations) or active (i.e. earthquakes) data, or improving our knowledge on effects linked with sedimentary basins.

  1. Seismic hazard assessment for Central, North and Northwest Europe: GSHAP Region 3

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grunthal, G.; Bosse, Ch.; Camelbeeck, T.; de Crook, T.; Gariel, J. C.; Gregersen, S.; Guterch, B.; Halldorsson, P.; Labák, P.; Lindholm, C.; Lenhardt, W.; Mantyniemi, P.; Mayer-Rosa, D.; Musson, R. M. W.; Schenk, Vladimír; Schenková, Zdeňka; Slejko, D.; Verbeiren, R.; Wahlstrom, R.; Zabukovec, B.; Ziros, T.


    Roč. 42, č. 6 (1999), s. 999-1011 ISSN 0365-2556 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  2. Examples of rotational component records of mining induced seismic events from Karviná region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaláb, Zdeněk; Knejzlík, Jaromír


    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2012), s. 173-178 ISSN 1214-9705 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : rotational component * rotational seismometer * mining induced seismicity Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.530, year: 2011

  3. Investigation of the seismicity at regional and teleseismic distances following underground nuclear detonations. Final technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, D.E.; Stubenrauch, A.; Willis, M.E.


    The main emphasis of the investigation was to determine the seismicity of the Nevada Test Site area during a time period which encompassed a lull in the testing program. The time period studied extends from April 1, 1973 to October 1, 1975. The aftershock sequence of nuclear shots fired on Pahute Mesa during late 1975 and early 1976 were also included

  4. Seismic waves and seismic barriers (United States)

    Kuznetsov, S. V.


    The basic idea of seismic barrier is to protect an area occupied by a building or a group of buildings from seismic waves. Depending on nature of seismic waves that are most probable in a specific region, different kinds of seismic barriers are suggested. For example, vertical barriers resembling a wall in a soil can protect from Rayleigh and bulk waves. The FEM simulation reveals that to be effective, such a barrier should be (i) composed of layers with contrast physical properties allowing "trapping" of the wave energy inside some of the layers, and (ii) depth of the barrier should be comparable or greater than the considered seismic wave length. Another type of seismic barrier represents a relatively thin surface layer that prevents some types of surface seismic waves from propagating. The ideas for these barriers are based on one Chadwick's result concerning non-propagation condition for Rayleigh waves in a clamped half-space, and Love's theorem that describes condition of non-existence for Love waves. The numerical simulations reveal that to be effective the length of the horizontal barriers should be comparable to the typical wavelength.

  5. Active tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean region: deduced from GPS, neotectonic and seismicity data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Reilinger


    Full Text Available This paper reviews the main tectonic features of the Eastern Mediterranean region combining the recent information obtained from GPS measurements, seismicity and neotectonic studies. GPS measurements reveal that the Arabian plate moves northward with respect to Eurasia at a rate of 23 ± 1 mm/yr, 10 mm/yr of this rate is taken up by shortening in the Caucasus. The internal deformation in Eastern Anatolia by conjugate strike-slip faulting and E-W trending thrusts, including the Bitlis frontal thrust, accommodates approximately a 15 mm/yr slip rate. The Northeast Anatolian fault, which extends from the Erzincan basin to Caucasus accommodates about 8 ± 5 mm/yr of left-lateral motion. The neotectonic fault pattern in Eastern Anatolia suggests that the NE Anatolian block moves in an E-ENE direction towards the South Caspian Sea. According to the same data, the Anatolian-Aegean block is undergoing a counter-clockwise rotation. However, from the residuals it appears that this solution can only be taken as a preliminary approximation. The Eulerian rotation pole indicates that slip rate along the North Anatolian fault is about 26 ± 3 mm/yr. This value is 10 mm/yr higher than slip rates obtained from geological data and historical earthquake records and it includes westward drift of the Pontides of a few millimetres/year or more. GPS measurements reveal that the East Anatolian fault accommodates an 11 ± 1 mm/yr relative motion. GPS data suggest that Central Anatolia behaves as a rigid block, but from neotectonic studies, it clearly appears that it is sliced by a number of conjugate strike-slip faults. The Isparta Angle area might be considered a major obstacle for the westward motion of the Anatolian block (Central and Eastern Anatolia. The western flank of this geological structure, the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone appears to be a major boundary with a slip rate of 15-20 mm/yr. The Western Anatolian grabens take up a total of 15 mm/yr NE-SW extension

  6. The Effects of Realistic Geological Heterogeneity on Seismic Modeling: Applications in Shear Wave Generation and Near-Surface Tunnel Detection (United States)

    Sherman, Christopher Scott

    Naturally occurring geologic heterogeneity is an important, but often overlooked, aspect of seismic wave propagation. This dissertation presents a strategy for modeling the effects of heterogeneity using a combination of geostatistics and Finite Difference simulation. In the first chapter, I discuss my motivations for studying geologic heterogeneity and seis- mic wave propagation. Models based upon fractal statistics are powerful tools in geophysics for modeling heterogeneity. The important features of these fractal models are illustrated using borehole log data from an oil well and geomorphological observations from a site in Death Valley, California. A large part of the computational work presented in this disserta- tion was completed using the Finite Difference Code E3D. I discuss the Python-based user interface for E3D and the computational strategies for working with heterogeneous models developed over the course of this research. The second chapter explores a phenomenon observed for wave propagation in heteroge- neous media - the generation of unexpected shear wave phases in the near-source region. In spite of their popularity amongst seismic researchers, approximate methods for modeling wave propagation in these media, such as the Born and Rytov methods or Radiative Trans- fer Theory, are incapable of explaining these shear waves. This is primarily due to these method's assumptions regarding the coupling of near-source terms with the heterogeneities and mode conversion. To determine the source of these shear waves, I generate a suite of 3D synthetic heterogeneous fractal geologic models and use E3D to simulate the wave propaga- tion for a vertical point force on the surface of the models. I also present a methodology for calculating the effective source radiation patterns from the models. The numerical results show that, due to a combination of mode conversion and coupling with near-source hetero- geneity, shear wave energy on the order of 10% of the

  7. Integrated modeling and field study of potential mechanisms forinduced seismicity at The Geysers Goethermal Field, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Majer, Ernie; Oldenburg, Curt; Peterson, John; Vasco, Don


    In this paper, we present progress made in a study aimed atincreasing the understanding of the relative contributions of differentmechanisms that may be causing the seismicity occurring at The Geysersgeothermal field, California. The approach we take is to integrate: (1)coupled reservoir geomechanical numerical modeling, (2) data fromrecently upgraded and expanded NCPA/Calpine/LBNL seismic arrays, and (3)tens of years of archival InSAR data from monthly satellite passes. Wehave conducted a coupled reservoir geomechanical analysis to studypotential mechanisms induced by steam production. Our simulation resultscorroborate co-locations of hypocenter field observations of inducedseismicity and their correlation with steam production as reported in theliterature. Seismic and InSAR data are being collected and processed foruse in constraining the coupled reservoir geomechanicalmodel.

  8. Structure of the San Fernando Valley region, California: implications for seismic hazard and tectonic history (United States)

    Langenheim, V.E.; Wright, T.L.; Okaya, D.A.; Yeats, R.S.; Fuis, G.S.; Thygesen, K.; Thybo, H.


    Industry seismic reflection data, oil test well data, interpretation of gravity and magnetic data, and seismic refraction deep-crustal profiles provide new perspectives on the subsurface geology of San Fernando Valley, home of two of the most recent damaging earthquakes in southern California. Seismic reflection data provide depths to Miocene–Quaternary horizons; beneath the base of the Late Miocene Modelo Formation are largely nonreflective rocks of the Middle Miocene Topanga and older formations. Gravity and seismic reflection data reveal the North Leadwell fault zone, a set of down-to-the-north faults that does not offset the top of the Modelo Formation; the zone strikes northwest across the valley, and may be part of the Oak Ridge fault system to the west. In the southeast part of the valley, the fault zone bounds a concealed basement high that influenced deposition of the Late Miocene Tarzana fan and may have localized damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Gravity and seismic refraction data indicate that the basin underlying San Fernando Valley is asymmetric, the north part of the basin (Sylmar subbasin) reaching depths of 5–8 km. Magnetic data suggest a major boundary at or near the Verdugo fault, which likely started as a Miocene transtensional fault, and show a change in the dip sense of the fault along strike. The northwest projection of the Verdugo fault separates the Sylmar subbasin from the main San Fernando Valley and coincides with the abrupt change in structural style from the Santa Susana fault to the Sierra Madre fault. The Simi Hills bound the basin on the west and, as defined by gravity data, the boundary is linear and strikes ~N45°E. That northeast-trending gravity gradient follows both the part of the 1971 San Fernando aftershock distribution called the Chatsworth trend and the aftershock trends of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. These data suggest that the 1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge earthquakes reactivated portions of

  9. Paleobathymetric Reconstruction of Ross Sea: seismic data processing and regional reflectors mapping (United States)

    Olivo, Elisabetta; De Santis, Laura; Wardell, Nigel; Geletti, Riccardo; Busetti, Martina; Sauli, Chiara; Bergamasco, Andrea; Colleoni, Florence; Vanzella, Walter; Sorlien, Christopher; Wilson, Doug; De Conto, Robert; Powell, Ross; Bart, Phil; Luyendyk, Bruce


    PURPOSE: New maps of some major unconformities of the Ross Sea have been reconstructed, by using seismic data grids, combined with the acoustic velocities from previous works, from new and reprocessed seismic profiles. This work is carried out with the support of PNRA and in the frame of the bilateral Italy-USA project GLAISS (Global Sea Level Rise & Antarctic Ice Sheet Stability predictions), funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Paleobathymetric maps of 30, 14 and 4 million years ago, three 'key moments' for the glacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, coinciding with global climatic changes. The paleobathymetric maps will then be used for numeric simulations focused on the width and thickness of the Ross Sea Ice Sheet. PRELIMINARY RESULTS: The first step was to create TWT maps of three main unconformity (RSU6, RSU4, and RSU2) of Ross Sea, revisiting and updating the ANTOSTRAT maps, through the interpretation of sedimentary bodies and erosional features, used to infer active or old processes along the slope, we identified the main seismic unconformities. We used the HIS Kingdom academic license. The different groups contribution was on the analysis of the Eastern Ross Sea continental slope and rise (OGS), of the Central Basin (KOPRI) of the western and central Ross Sea (Univ. of Santa Barbara and OGS), where new drill sites and seismic profiles were collected after the publication of the ANTOSTRAT maps. Than we joined our interpretation with previous interpretations. We examined previous processing of several seismic lines and all the old acoustic velocity analysis. In addiction we reprocessed some lines in order to have a higher data coverage. Then, combining the TWT maps of the unconformity with the old and new speed data we created new depth maps of the study area. The new depth maps will then be used for reconstructing the paleobathymetry of the Ross Sea by applying backstripping technique.

  10. Seismic anisotropy inside the Earth from a model space search approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beghein, Caroline


    For theoretical and computational convenience, the Earth has long been modelled as an isotropic medium for wave propagation. There is, however, considerable evidence of seismic anisotropy at different depths and different scales throughout the Earth, which can provide insight into Earth's dynamic

  11. The influence of regional geological settings on the seismic hazard level in copper mines in the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area (Poland) (United States)

    Burtan, Zbigniew


    The current level of rockburst hazard in copper mines of the (LGOM) Legnica- Głogów Copper Belt Area is mostly the consequence of mining-induced seismicity, whilst the majority of rockbursting events registered to date were caused by high-energy tremors. The analysis of seismic readings in recent years reveals that the highest seismic activity among the copper mines in the LGOM is registered in the mine Rudna. This study investigates the seismic activity in the rock strata in the Rudna mine fields over the years 2006-2015. Of particular interest are the key seismicity parameters: the number of registered seismic events, the total energy emissions, the energy index. It appears that varied seismic activity in the area may be the function of several variables: effective mining thickness, the thickness of burst-prone strata and tectonic intensity. The results support and corroborate the view that principal factors influencing the actual seismic hazard level are regional geological conditions in the copper mines within the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area.

  12. The influence of regional geological settings on the seismic hazard level in copper mines in the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area (Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burtan Zbigniew


    Full Text Available The current level of rockburst hazard in copper mines of the (LGOM Legnica- Głogów Copper Belt Area is mostly the consequence of mining-induced seismicity, whilst the majority of rockbursting events registered to date were caused by high-energy tremors. The analysis of seismic readings in recent years reveals that the highest seismic activity among the copper mines in the LGOM is registered in the mine Rudna. This study investigates the seismic activity in the rock strata in the Rudna mine fields over the years 2006-2015. Of particular interest are the key seismicity parameters: the number of registered seismic events, the total energy emissions, the energy index. It appears that varied seismic activity in the area may be the function of several variables: effective mining thickness, the thickness of burst-prone strata and tectonic intensity. The results support and corroborate the view that principal factors influencing the actual seismic hazard level are regional geological conditions in the copper mines within the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area.

  13. Seismic velocity model of the central United States (Version 1): Description and simulation of the 18 April 2008 Mt. Carmel, Illinois, Earthquake (United States)

    Ramírez‐Guzmán, Leonardo; Boyd, Oliver S.; Hartzell, Stephen; Williams, Robert A.


    We have developed a new three‐dimensional seismic velocity model of the central United States (CUSVM) that includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and covers parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The model represents a compilation of decades of crustal research consisting of seismic, aeromagnetic, and gravity profiles; geologic mapping; geophysical and geological borehole logs; and inversions of the regional seismic properties. The density, P‐ and S‐wave velocities are synthesized in a stand‐alone spatial database that can be queried to generate the required input for numerical seismic‐wave propagation simulations. We test and calibrate the CUSVM by simulating ground motions of the 18 April 2008 Mw 5.4 Mt. Carmel, Illinois, earthquake and comparing the results with observed records within the model area. The selected stations in the comparisons reflect different geological site conditions and cover distances ranging from 10 to 430 km from the epicenter. The results, based on a qualitative and quantitative goodness‐of‐fit (GOF) characterization, indicate that both within and outside the Mississippi Embayment the CUSVM reasonably reproduces: (1) the body and surface‐wave arrival times and (2) the observed regional variations in ground‐motion amplitude, cumulative energy, duration, and frequency content up to a frequency of 1.0 Hz. In addition, we discuss the probable structural causes for the ground‐motion patterns in the central United States that we observed in the recorded motions of the 18 April Mt. Carmel earthquake.

  14. Active and fossil mantle flows in the western Alpine region unravelled by seismic anisotropy analysis and high-resolution P wave tomography (United States)

    Salimbeni, Simone; Malusà, Marco G.; Zhao, Liang; Guillot, Stéphane; Pondrelli, Silvia; Margheriti, Lucia; Paul, Anne; Solarino, Stefano; Aubert, Coralie; Dumont, Thierry; Schwartz, Stéphane; Wang, Qingchen; Xu, Xiaobing; Zheng, Tianyu; Zhu, Rixiang


    The anisotropy of seismic velocities in the mantle, when integrated with high-resolution tomographic models and geologic information, can be used to detect active mantle flows in complex plate boundary areas, providing new insights on the impact of mantle processes on the topography of mountain belts. Here we use a densely spaced array of temporary broadband seismic stations to analyze the seismic anisotropy pattern of the western Alpine region, at the boundary between the Alpine and Apenninic slabs. Our results are supportive of a polyphase development of anisotropic mantle fabrics, possibly starting from the Jurassic to present. Geophysical data presented in this work, and geologic evidence taken from the literature, indicate that: (i) fossil fabrics formed during Tethyan rifting may be still preserved within the Alpine and Apenninic slabs; (ii) mantle deformation during Apenninic slab rollback is not compensated by a complete toroidal flow around the northern tip of the retreating slab; (iii) the previously observed continuous trend of anisotropy fast axes near-parallel to the western Alpine arc is confirmed. We observe that this arc-parallel trend of fast axes is located in correspondence to a low velocity anomaly in the European upper mantle, beneath regions of the Western and Ligurian Alps showing the highest uplift rates. We propose that the progressive rollback of the Apenninic slab, in the absence of a counterclockwise toroidal flow at its northern tip, induced a suction effect at the scale of the supraslab mantle. The resulting mantle flow pattern was characterized by an asthenospheric counterflow at the rear of the unbroken Western Alps slab and around its southern tip, and by an asthenospheric upwelling, mirrored by low P wave velocities, that would have favored the topographic uplift of the Alpine belt from the Mont Blanc to the Mediterranean sea.

  15. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Modeling Using the ETAS Framework (United States)

    Ross, G.


    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most popular tools for modeling seismicity and quantifying risk in earthquake-prone regions. Under the ETAS model, the occurrence times of earthquakes are treated as a self-exciting Poisson process where each earthquake briefly increases the probability of subsequent earthquakes occurring soon afterwards, which captures the fact that large mainshocks tend to produce long sequences of aftershocks. A triggering kernel controls the amount by which the probability increases based on the magnitude of each earthquake, and the rate at which it then decays over time. This triggering kernel is usually chosen heuristically, to match the parametric form of the modified Omori law for aftershock decay. However recent work has questioned whether this is an appropriate choice. Since the choice of kernel has a large impact on the predictions made by the ETAS model, avoiding misspecification is crucially important. We present a novel nonparametric version of ETAS which avoids making parametric assumptions, and instead learns the correct specification from the data itself. Our approach is based on the Dirichlet process, which is a modern class of Bayesian prior distribution which allows for efficient inference over an infinite dimensional space of functions. We show how our nonparametric ETAS model can be fit to data, and present results demonstrating that the fit is greatly improved compared to the standard parametric specification. Additionally, we explain how our model can be used to perform probabilistic declustering of earthquake catalogs, to classify earthquakes as being either aftershocks or mainshocks. and to learn the causal relations between pairs of earthquakes.

  16. Seismic generated infrasounds on Telluric Planets: Modeling and comparisons between Earth, Venus and Mars (United States)

    Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.; Karakostas, F. G.; Garcia, R.; Mimoun, D.; Banerdt, W. B.; Smrekar, S. E.


    Earth, Venus and Mars are all planets in which infrasounds can propagate and interact with the solid surface. This leads to infrasound generation for internal sources (e.g. quakes) and to seismic waves generations for atmospheric sources (e.g. meteor, impactor explosions, boundary layer turbulences). Both the atmospheric profile, surface density, atmospheric wind and viscous/attenuation processes are however greatly different, including major differences between Mars/Venus and Earth due to the CO2 molecular relaxation. We present modeling results and compare the seismic/acoustic coupling strength for Earth, Mars and Venus. This modeling is made through normal modes modelling for models integrating the interior, atmosphere, both with realistic attenuation (intrinsic Q for solid part, viscosity and molecular relaxation for the atmosphere). We complete these modeling, made for spherical structure, by integration of wind, assuming the later to be homogeneous at the scale of the infrasound wavelength. This allows us to compute either the Seismic normal modes (e.g. Rayleigh surface waves), or the acoustic or the atmospheric gravity modes. Comparisons are done, for either a seismic source or an atmospheric source, on the amplitude of expected signals as a function of distance and frequency. Effects of local time are integrated in the modeling. We illustrate the Rayleigh waves modelling by Earth data (for large quakes and volcanoes eruptions). For Venus, very large coupling can occur at resonance frequencies between the solid part and atmospheric part of the planet through infrasounds/Rayleigh waves coupling. If the atmosphere reduced the Q (quality coefficient) of Rayleigh waves in general, the atmosphere at these resonance soffers better propagation than Venus crust and increases their Q. For Mars, Rayleigh waves excitations by atmospheric burst is shown and discussed for the typical yield of impacts. The new data of the Nasa INSIGHT mission which carry both seismic and

  17. Seismic Investigations of the Central Nepal Region Using Teleseismic and Local Earthquakes (United States)

    Foster, A. E.; Wei, S.; Wang, B.


    Central Nepal encompasses a tectonically interesting and hazardous region. The general structure of the Himalayan orogen is known, but the details are not. These details are important when it comes to understanding the large thrust earthquakes that can occur in the region, such as the Mw7.8 25 April 2015 event. We take two approaches to add to the community knowledge about the structure of this area. First, we make new measurements on the existing IRIS Passcal Himalayan Nepal Tibet (HIMNT) data set. This array was operated from late 2001 through 2002. We collect two-station phase measurements for Rayleigh waves from teleseismic events at periods of 25 to 125 s. We estimate the uncertainty in these measurements, and invert the weighted measurements to produce phase-velocity models covering an area from 85˚ to 88˚ longitude, and 26˚ to 30˚ latitude. We evaluate the models on several grid sizes, and select the preferred model based on data coverage and uncertainty estimates. The second approach is to better constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of aftershocks of the 25 April 2015 event. We use the Cut and Paste (CAP) method with locally and regionally recorded waveforms (<30˚ distance), as well as teleseismic body waves. We use a 1-D velocity model based on the phase-velocity results from HIMNT, and experiment with varying this 1-D model for different event-station paths. We use both body waves and surface waves, where possible, and perform a grid search over depth. The dip and depth of the focal mechanisms provide important information on the geometry of the plate interface, and potentially of smaller thrusts, and add constraints on the interpretation of the phase-velocity models.

  18. Realistic modeling of seismic input for megacities and large urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Alvarez, Leonardo; Aoudia, Abdelkrim


    The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk assessment, and hazard mapping, in connection with seismic activity and man-induced vibrations. The definition of realistic seismic input has been obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. The innovative modeling technique, that constitutes the common tool to the entire project, takes into account source, propagation and local site effects. This is done using first principles of physics about wave generation and propagation in complex media, and does not require to resort to convolutive approaches, that have been proven to be quite unreliable, mainly when dealing with complex geological structures, the most interesting from the practical point of view. In fact, several techniques that have been proposed to empirically estimate the site effects using observations convolved with theoretically computed signals corresponding to simplified models, supply reliable information about the site response to non-interfering seismic phases. They are not adequate in most of the real cases, when the seismic sequel is formed by several interfering waves. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to reliably estimate the amplification effects even in complex geological structures, exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, palaeoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important base of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios that represent a valid and economic tool for the seismic microzonation. This knowledge can be very fruitfully used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant constructions and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, and, therefore

  19. Seismic wave propagation modeling in porous media for various frequencies: A case study in carbonate rock (United States)

    Nurhandoko, Bagus Endar B.; Wardaya, Pongga Dikdya; Adler, John; Siahaan, Kisko R.


    Seismic wave parameter plays very important role to characterize reservoir properties whereas pore parameter is one of the most important parameter of reservoir. Therefore, wave propagation phenomena in pore media is important to be studied. By referring this study, in-direct pore measurement method based on seismic wave propagation can be developed. Porosity play important role in reservoir, because the porosity can be as compartment of fluid. Many type of porosity like primary as well as secondary porosity. Carbonate rock consist many type of porosity, i.e.: inter granular porosity, moldic porosity and also fracture porosity. The complexity of pore type in carbonate rocks make the wave propagation in these rocks is more complex than sand reservoir. We have studied numerically wave propagation in carbonate rock by finite difference modeling in time-space domain. The medium of wave propagation was modeled by base on the result of pattern recognition using artificial neural network. The image of thin slice of carbonate rock is then translated into the velocity matrix. Each mineral contents including pore of thin slice image are translated to velocity since mineral has unique velocity. After matrix velocity model has been developed, the seismic wave is propagated numerically in this model. The phenomena diffraction is clearly shown while wave propagates in this complex carbonate medium. The seismic wave is modeled in various frequencies. The result shows dispersive phenomena where high frequency wave tends to propagate in matrix instead pores. In the other hand, the low frequency waves tend to propagate through pore space even though the velocity of pore is very low. Therefore, this dispersive phenomena of seismic wave propagation can be the future indirect measurement technology for predicting the existence or intensity of pore space in reservoir rock. It will be very useful for the future reservoir characterization.

  20. A new approach to integrate seismic and production data in reservoir models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouenes, A.; Chawathe, A.; Weiss, W. [New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM (United States)] [and others


    A great deal of effort is devoted to reducing the uncertainties in reservoir modeling. For example, seismic properties are used to improve the characterization of interwell properties by providing porosity maps constrained to seismic impedance. Another means to reduce uncertainties is to constrain the reservoir model to production data. This paper describes a new approach where the production and seismic data are simultaneously used to reduce the uncertainties. In this new approach, the primary geologic parameter that controls reservoir properties is identified. Next, the geophysical parameter that is sensitive to the dominant geologic parameter is determined. Then the geology and geophysics are linked using analytic correlations. Unfortunately, the initial guess resulted in a reservoir model that did not match the production history. Since the time required for trial and error matching of production history is exorbitant, an automatic history matching method based on a fast optimization method was used to find the correlating parameters. This new approach was illustrated with an actual field in the Williston Basin. Upscalling problems do not arise since the scale is imposed by the size of the seismic bin (66m, 219 ft) which is the size of the simulator gridblocks.

  1. Mechanical Model for flexural behaviour of slab-column connections under seismically induced deformations


    Drakatos Ioannis-Sokratis; Muttoni Aurelio; Beyer Katrin


    Reinforced concrete (RC) flat slabs supported on columns are one of the most widely used structural systems for office and industrial buildings. In regions of medium to high seismic risk RC walls are typically added as lateral force resisting system and to increase the lateral stiffness and strength. Although slab-column systems are not expected to contribute to the lateral resistance of the structure due to their low stiffness, the slab-column connection have to have the capacity to follow t...

  2. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra


    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  3. Seismicity pattern: an indicator of source region of volcanism at convergent plate margins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří


    Roč. 141, č. 4 (2004), s. 303-326 ISSN 0031-9201 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012002; GA AV ČR IAA3012303; GA AV ČR KSK3012103 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : seismicity pattern * volcanism * aseismic gap Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.370, year: 2004

  4. Geology of central Northern Switzerland: Overview and some key topics regarding Nagra’s seismic exploration of the region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madritsch, H. [National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (NAGRA), Wettingen (Switzerland)


    The article provides a brief overview of the geological evolution of central Northern Switzerland as outlined in an oral presentation given at the 82{sup nd} SASEG annual convention 2015 in Baden. It focuses on an introduction to the Permo-Carboniferous Trough of Northern Switzerland, a brief description of the Mesozoic sedimentary sequences to be found in the region, including the potential host rocks for radioactive waste disposal proposed by Nagra, and the Late Cenozoic tectonics of central Northern Switzerland, in particular the formation of the Jura Fold-and-Thrust Belt. These aspects represent some of the key topics regarding Nagra's ongoing seismic exploration of the region that has, and still is, contributing significantly to a better understanding of the region's fascinating geology. (author)

  5. Anatomy of a caldera: seismic velocity and attenuation models of the Campi Flegrei (Italy). (United States)

    Calò, Marco; Tramelli, Anna


    Campi Flegrei is an active Caldera marked by strong vertical deformations of the soil called bradyseisms. The mechanisms proposed to explain this phenomenon are essentially three i) the presence of a shallow magmatic chamber that pushes the lid and consequently producing periodic variation of the soil level, ii) a thermic expansion of the geothermal aquifer due to the periodic increase of heat flux coming from a near magmatic chamber or deep fluids or iii) a combination of both phenomena. To solve the paradox, several models have been proposed to describe the nature and the geometry of the bodies responsible of the bradyseisms. Seismological tools allowed a rough description of the main features in terms of seismic velocities and attenuation parameters and till now were not able to resolve the smallest structures (water saturated reservoir from regions with low Vp, low Vp/Vs and low Qp possibly related to the gas saturated part of the reservoir. At deeper depth (2-3.5 km) bodies with high Vp and Vp/Vs and low Qp can be associated with magmatic intrusions. The results of this project have been obtained in the framework of the PIPIIT program (IA100416).

  6. Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pribadi, Sugeng; Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan


    This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M o ), moment magnitude (M W ), rupture duration (T o ) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M W =7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M W =7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M W =7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake

  7. Seismic Tomography of the Northwest Himalayas, Western Syntaxis and Pamir-Hindu Kush Region: Implications for Underlying Geodynamics (United States)

    Raoof, J.; Mukhopadhyay, S.


    Travel time tomography of the study region using regional as well as local earthquake data illuminate a very heterogeneous structure of this geologically and tectonically complex region. The tomographic image is well resolved up to 150 km depth in the Western Himalayas and up to 300 km depth in the Pamir and Hindu Kush region. The top low velocity anomaly imaged up to 80 km depth correlates well with the thicker crust with deeper low density roots under the high mountains in the northwest Himalayas as well as in the Pamir and Hindu Kush region. Average crustal thickness increases from south to north in the Himalayas as well as along the tectonic trend of the Himalayas. This might be an effect of first collision between Indian and Eurasian plates in the NW and then subsequent anticlockwise rotation of Indian plate, leading to crumpling of the crust. This could also be due to variable thickness of more rigid portion of the incoming crust of Indian plate. The Indian lithospheric slab is imaged as a gently underthrusting high velocity anomaly under the northwest Himalayas and subducted Indian lithospheric slab which follows the trend of intermediate depth seismicity under the Pamir and Hindu Kush region. On the other hand beneath the Pamir-Tien Shan the dipping high velocity anomaly which follows the trend of intermediate depth seismicity, represents the remnant of the southward subducted Asian slab. In the southwest of Hindu Kush the Indian lithospheric slab rolls over and overturns at a depth of 250 km and dips southward. The Delhi-Haridwar Ridge (DHR) and Salt Ranges orthogonal to the strike of the Himalayas are well imaged as high velocity structures. The DHR is butting against the northwest Himalayas that led to ramming and locally buckling of the crust below the Higher Himalayas just NE of DHR. Seismicity pattern follows this trend of the crust. It shows for the first time the effect of ramming of the Himalayas by DHR and most importantly how the Indian plate

  8. Realistic modelling of the seismic input: Site effects and parametric studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.


    We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation, showing the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the framework of the EC project 'Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges' (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. The definition of the seismic input at the Warth bridge site, i.e. the determination of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake with a given magnitude and epicentral distance from the site, has been done following a theoretical approach. In order to perform an accurate and realistic estimate of site effects and of differential motion it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters, in realistic geological structures. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different sources and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of the reach of stochastic models, at a very low cost/benefit ratio. (author)

  9. Updated Colombian Seismic Hazard Map (United States)

    Eraso, J.; Arcila, M.; Romero, J.; Dimate, C.; Bermúdez, M. L.; Alvarado, C.


    The Colombian seismic hazard map used by the National Building Code (NSR-98) in effect until 2009 was developed in 1996. Since then, the National Seismological Network of Colombia has improved in both coverage and technology providing fifteen years of additional seismic records. These improvements have allowed a better understanding of the regional geology and tectonics which in addition to the seismic activity in Colombia with destructive effects has motivated the interest and the need to develop a new seismic hazard assessment in this country. Taking advantage of new instrumental information sources such as new broad band stations of the National Seismological Network, new historical seismicity data, standardized global databases availability, and in general, of advances in models and techniques, a new Colombian seismic hazard map was developed. A PSHA model was applied. The use of the PSHA model is because it incorporates the effects of all seismic sources that may affect a particular site solving the uncertainties caused by the parameters and assumptions defined in this kind of studies. First, the seismic sources geometry and a complete and homogeneous seismic catalog were defined; the parameters of seismic rate of each one of the seismic sources occurrence were calculated establishing a national seismotectonic model. Several of attenuation-distance relationships were selected depending on the type of seismicity considered. The seismic hazard was estimated using the CRISIS2007 software created by the Engineering Institute of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México -UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico). A uniformly spaced grid each 0.1° was used to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectral values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3.0 seconds with return periods of 75, 225, 475, 975 and 2475 years. For each site, a uniform hazard spectrum and exceedance rate curves were calculated. With the results, it is

  10. GyPSuM: A Detailed Tomographic Model of Mantle Density and Seismic Wave Speeds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, N A; Forte, A M; Boschi, L; Grand, S P


    GyPSuM is a tomographic model fo mantle seismic shear wave (S) speeds, compressional wave (P) speeds and detailed density anomalies that drive mantle flow. the model is developed through simultaneous inversion of seismic body wave travel times (P and S) and geodynamic observations while considering realistic mineral physics parameters linking the relative behavior of mantle properties (wave speeds and density). Geodynamic observations include the (up to degree 16) global free-air gravity field, divergence of the tectonic plates, dynamic topography of the free surface, and the flow-induced excess ellipticity of the core-mantle boundary. GyPSuM is built with the philosophy that heterogeneity that most closely resembles thermal variations is the simplest possible solution. Models of the density field from Earth's free oscillations have provided great insight into the density configuration of the mantle; but are limited to very long-wavelength solutions. Alternatively, simply scaling higher resolution seismic images to density anomalies generates density fields that do not satisfy geodynamic observations. The current study provides detailed density structures in the mantle while directly satisfying geodynamic observations through a joint seismic-geodynamic inversion process. Notable density field observations include high-density piles at the base of the superplume structures, supporting the fundamental results of past normal mode studies. However, these features are more localized and lower amplitude than past studies would suggest. When we consider all seismic anomalies in GyPSuM, we find that P and S-wave speeds are strongly correlated throughout the mantle. However, correlations between the high-velocity S zones in the deep mantle ({approx} 2000 km depth) and corresponding P-wave anomalies are very low suggesting a systematic divergence from simplified thermal effects in ancient subducted slab anomalies. Nevertheless, they argue that temperature variations are

  11. Rayleigh-wave Tomography and Seismic Anisotropic Structures in the Region of the Philippine Sea (United States)

    Lee, Hsin-Yu; Legendre, Cédric P.; Chang, Emmy T. Y.


    The Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) is surrounded by convergent boundaries, the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the PSP along the Izu-Bonin and Mariana trenches at the east, whereas the PSP is subducting beneath the Eurasian plate along the Nankai trough, Ryukyu trench and Philippine trench at the west. The PSP can be divided by three oceanic basins: the oldest West Philippine basin developing in 35-45 Ma in the west, and the Shikoku and Parece Vela basins in 15-30 Ma in the east. Previous studies show a large variety of the seismic anisotropy structures in the region of the PSP, which correspond different scenarios of tectonic evolution for this area. In this study, we analyze both isotropic and anisotropic Rayleigh-wave velocity structures of the PSP by means of two-station method. The earthquakes of magnitude (Mw) greater than 5.0 in-between the years 1998-2014 were acquired. Totally, 7914 teleseismic events are adopted to form the measurements of Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves along 467 station-pairs over the PSP. The measured dispersion curves are then inverted into the isotropic and azimuthally anisotropic (2ψ) velocity maps at different periods with the damped, lateral smoothing LSQR inversion. The inversion is framed by the triangular grids which knots are of 200 km spacing. The consequent velocity anomalies are referenced to the average of the phase velocity at the periods between 50 and 100 seconds. The resulting velocity anomalies show a consistent pattern with the locations of the sub-basins in the PSP at the periods of 50 and 60 sec, which can be considered to be the association of lithospheric velocity structure with basin ages. The positive velocity anomalies are seen in the West Philippine basin associating the relatively old lithosphere; whereas the negative anomalies are found in the Shikoku and Parece Vela basins which the lithospheric structures are relatively young. On the other hand, the resultant azimuthal anisotropy reveals an apparent

  12. Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano


    The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

  13. Seismicity, focal mechanisms, and stress distribution in the Tres Virgenes volcanic and geothermal region, Baja California Sur, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, Victor; Munguia, Luis [Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada (Mexico)


    In October 1993 we carried out a seismic monitoring in the Tres Virgenes volcanic region in order to record the background seismicity associated with the volcanic structures, the geothermal field and the tectonic features of the area. Hypocenters for 257 microearthquakes were located in the volcanic edifices and along the northwest right-lateral, strike-slip La Virgen fault. Focal depths range from close to the Earth surface to about 8 km. Shallow depths occur mainly in the volcanic edifices. Deeper seismic events occurred outside the volcanic area. The duration magnitudes of the located microearthquakes range between 1 and 3. The Vp/Vs ratio and the low-Q values estimated suggest heterogeneous material properties in the volcanic structures mainly toward the El Azufre fault and the El Aguajito Caldera, where hydrothermal activity has been reported. The P- and T-axes of focal mechanisms for 90 microearthquakes suggest that the region is under N-S compression and E-W extension, in agreement with the regional tectonic stress field of the NW-SE right-lateral strike-slip transform fault system of the Gulf of California. [Spanish] En octubre de 1993 se llevo a cabo un monitoreo sismico en la region volcanica Las Tres Virgenes con el proposito de registrar la actividad sismica asociada a las estructuras volcanicas, al campo geotermico y a la tectonica local. Se localizaron 257 microsismos con hipocentros en los edificios volcanicos y a lo largo de la falla de rumbo, lateral derecha conocida como falla La Virgen. La profundidad focal de los sismos varia desde los muy cercanos a la superficie de la Tierra hasta los 8 km. Las profundidades someras ocurren principalmente en los edificios volcanicos. Los sismos mas profundos ocurren fuera del area volcanica. La magnitud de duracion de los microsismos localizados varia entre 1 y 3. La razon Vp/Vs y los valores bajos de Q que se estimaron en la zona sugieren un material con propiedades heterogeneas bajo las estructuras

  14. National Seismic Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokes, P.A.


    The National Seismic Station was developed to meet the needs of regional or worldwide seismic monitoring of underground nuclear explosions to verify compliance with a nuclear test ban treaty. The Station acquires broadband seismic data and transmits it via satellite to a data center. It is capable of unattended operation for periods of at least a year, and will detect any tampering that could result in the transmission of unauthentic seismic data

  15. The research on method of interlayer modeling based on seismic inversion and petrophysical facies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Cheng


    Full Text Available Currently, the three-dimensional distribution of interlayer is realized by stochastic modeling. Traditionally, the three-dimensional geological modeling controlled by sedimentary facies models is built on the basis of logging interpretation parameters and geophysical information. Because of shallow gas-cap, the quality of three-dimensional seismic data vertical resolution in research area cannot meet the interlayer research that is below ten meters. Moreover, sedimentary facies cannot commendably reveal interlayer distribution and the well density is very sparse in research area. So, it is difficult for conventional technology to finely describe interlayers. In this document, it uses L1-L2 combined norm constrained inversion to enhance the recognition capability of interlayer in seismic profile and improve the signal to noise ratio, the wave group characteristics and the vertical resolution of three-dimensional data and classifies petrophysical facies of interlayer based on core, sedimentary facies and logging interpretation. The interlayer model which is based on seismic inversion model and petrophysical facies can precisely simulate the distribution of reservoir and interlayer. The results show that the simulation results of this new methodology are consistent with the dynamic production perfectly which provide a better basis for producing and mining remaining oil and a new interlayer modeling method for sparse well density.

  16. Building Subsurface Velocity Models with Sharp Interfaces Using Interface-Guided Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion (United States)

    Lin, Youzuo; Huang, Lianjie


    Reverse-time migration has the potential to image complex subsurface structures, including steeply-dipping fault zones, but the method requires an accurate velocity model. Acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion is a promising tool for high-resolution velocity model building. Because of the ill-posedness of acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion, it is a great challenge to obtain accurate velocity models containing sharp interfaces. To improve velocity model building, we develop an acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion method with an interface-guided modified total-variation regularization scheme to improve the inversion accuracy and robustness, particularly for models with sharp interfaces and steeply-dipping fault zones with widths much smaller than the seismic wavelength. The new regularization scheme incorporates interface information into seismic full-waveform inversion. The interface information of subsurface interfaces is obtained iteratively using migration imaging during waveform inversion. Seismic migration is robust for subsurface imaging. Our new acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion takes advantage of the robustness of migration imaging to improve velocity estimation. We use synthetic seismic data for a complex model containing sharp interfaces and several steeply-dipping fault zones to validate the improved capability of our new acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion method. Our inversion results are much better than those produced without using interface-guided regularization. Acoustic- and elastic-waveform inversion with an interface-guided modified total-variation regularization scheme has the potential to accurately build subsurface velocity models with sharp interfaces and/or steep fault zones.

  17. Establishment of data base of regional seismic recordings from earthquakes, chemical explosions and nuclear explosions in the Former Soviet Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermolenko, N.A.; Kopnichev, Yu.F.; Kunakov, V.G.; Kunakova, O.K.; Rakhmatullin, M.Kh.; Sokolova, I.N.; Vybornyy, Zh.I. [AN SSSR, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. Fiziki Zemli


    In this report results of work on establishment of a data base of regional seismic recordings from earthquakes, chemical explosions and nuclear explosions in the former Soviet Union are described. This work was carried out in the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The recording system, methods of investigations and primary data processing are described in detail. The largest number of digital records was received by the permanent seismic station Talgar, situated in the northern Tien Shan, 20 km to the east of Almaty city. More than half of the records are seismograms of underground nuclear explosions and chemical explosions. The nuclear explosions were recorded mainly from the Semipalatinsk test site. In addition, records of the explosions from the Chinese test site Lop Nor and industrial nuclear explosions from the West Siberia region were obtained. Four records of strong chemical explosions were picked out (two of them have been produced at the Semipalatinsk test site and two -- in Uzbekistan). We also obtained 16 records of crustal earthquakes, mainly from the Altai region, close to the Semipalatinsk test site, and also from the West China region, close to the Lop Nor test site. In addition, a small number of records of earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions, received by arrays of temporary stations, that have been working in the southern Kazakhstan region are included in this report. Parameters of the digital seismograms and file structure are described. Possible directions of future work on the digitizing of unique data archive are discussed.

  18. A seismic case study of salt dissolution and subsidence in response to regional deformation, south-central Alberta (United States)

    Anderson, Neil L.; Williams, R. Shawn; Hinds, Ronald C.


    Bedded rock salt with a net thickness of about 40 m was deposited uniformly within the Famennian Wabamun Group in the Stettler South study area (T33-34, R18-21W4M) of south-central Alberta. Subsequent to deposition, this original rock salt was leached to the extent that it is preserved now as irregular-shaped bodies of widely differing areal extent and thickness. In the immediate study area, dissolution was initiated by regional deformation during the mid-Late Cretaceous, and accentuated thereafter by various large-scale processes including glaciation. Seismic data illustrate that at least some salt-dissolution features in the Stettler South area retain a marked linear orientation (SSW-NNE). In cross section (on west-east oriented seismic lines), these structures are manifested as upward-expanding zones of observable subsidence. These zones of subsidence are characterized by increased structural relief at greater depth (resulting principally to the timing of the leaching, stoping, and lateral strain within post-salt strata), and small-amplitude near-vertical offsets. The character of these subsidence features is consistent with: (1) the onset of dissolution as a result of regional deformation during mid-Late Cretaceous; (2) the plastic deformation (creep) of rock salt; (3) the plastic deformation (on a large scale) and relatively gradual subsidence of the post-salt strata; and (4) accelerated rates of leaching in response to glacial loading and unloading.

  19. Integrated Reflection Seismic Monitoring and Reservoir Modeling for Geologic CO2 Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Rogers


    The US DOE/NETL CCS MVA program funded a project with Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc. (now SIGMA) to model the proof of concept of using sparse seismic data in the monitoring of CO{sub 2} injected into saline aquifers. The goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate an active source reflection seismic imaging strategy based on deployment of spatially sparse surface seismic arrays. The primary objective was to test the feasibility of sparse seismic array systems to monitor the CO{sub 2} plume migration injected into deep saline aquifers. The USDOE/RMOTC Teapot Dome (Wyoming) 3D seismic and reservoir data targeting the Crow Mountain formation was used as a realistic proxy to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Though the RMOTC field has been well studied, the Crow Mountain as a saline aquifer has not been studied previously as a CO{sub 2} sequestration (storage) candidate reservoir. A full reprocessing of the seismic data from field tapes that included prestack time migration (PSTM) followed by prestack depth migration (PSDM) was performed. A baseline reservoir model was generated from the new imaging results that characterized the faults and horizon surfaces of the Crow Mountain reservoir. The 3D interpretation was integrated with the petrophysical data from available wells and incorporated into a geocellular model. The reservoir structure used in the geocellular model was developed using advanced inversion technologies including Fusion's ThinMAN{trademark} broadband spectral inversion. Seal failure risk was assessed using Fusion's proprietary GEOPRESS{trademark} pore pressure and fracture pressure prediction technology. CO{sub 2} injection was simulated into the Crow Mountain with a commercial reservoir simulator. Approximately 1.2MM tons of CO{sub 2} was simulated to be injected into the Crow Mountain reservoir over 30 years and subsequently let 'soak' in the reservoir for 970 years. The relatively small plume

  20. Realistic modelling of observed seismic motion in compIex sedimentary basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. F. Panza


    Full Text Available Three applications of a numerical technique are illustrated to model realistically the seismic ground motion for complex two-dimensional structures. First we consider a sedimentary basin in the Friuli region, and we model strong motion records from an aftershock of the 1976 earthquake. Then we simulate the ground motion caused in Rome by the 1915, Fucino (Italy earthquake, and we compare our modelling with the damage distribution observed in the town. Finally we deal with the interpretation of ground motion recorded in Mexico City, as a consequence of earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The synthetic signals explain the major characteristics (relative amplitudes, spectral amplification, frequency content of the considered seismograms, and the space distribution of the available macroseismic data. For the sedimentary basin in the Friuli area, parametric studies demonstrate the relevant sensitivity of the computed ground motion to small changes in the subsurface topography of the sedimentary basin, and in the velocity and quality factor of the sediments. The relative Arias Intensity, determined from our numerical simulation in Rome, is in very good agreoment with the distribution of damage observed during the Fucino earthquake. For epicentral distances in the range 50 km-100 km, the source location and not only the local soil conditions control the local effects. For Mexico City, the observed ground motion can be explained as resonance effects and as excitation of local surface waves, and the theoretical and the observed maximum spectral amplifications are very similar. In general, our numerical simulations estimate the maximum and average spectral amplification for specific sites, i.e. they are a very powerful tool for accurate micro-zonation

  1. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Azzaro


    Full Text Available The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017. The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016 – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be

  2. Broadband seismic analysis and modeling of the 2015 Taan Fjord, Alaska landslide using Instaseis (United States)

    Gualtieri, Lucia; Ekström, Göran


    We carry out a broadband analysis of the seismic signals generated by a massive landslide that occurred near Icy Bay (Alaska) on October 17, 2015. The event generated seismic signals recorded globally. Using Instaseis, a recently developed tool for rapid computation of complete broadband synthetic seismograms, we simulate the seismic wave propagation between the event and five seismic stations located around the landslide. By modeling the broadband seismograms in the period band 5 to 200 s, we reconstruct by inversion a time-varying point force to characterize the landslide time history. We compute the broadband spectrum of the landslide force history and find that it has a corner period of about 100 s, corresponding to the duration of sliding. In contrast with standard earthquakes, the landslide force spectrum below the corner frequency decays as ω, while the spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies is proportional to ω-2, similar to the rate of spectral decay seen in earthquakes. From the inverted force history and an estimate of the final run-out distance, we deduce the mass, the trajectory and characteristics of the landslide dynamics associated with the center of mass, such as acceleration, velocity, displacement and friction. Inferring an effective run-out distance of ˜900 m from a satellite image, we estimate a landslide mass of ˜150 million metric tons.

  3. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model. (United States)

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin


    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  4. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model (United States)

    Zhang, Shimin


    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

  5. Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.


    Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

  6. AxiSEM3D: broadband seismic wavefields in 3-D aspherical Earth models (United States)

    Leng, K.; Nissen-Meyer, T.; Zad, K. H.; van Driel, M.; Al-Attar, D.


    Seismology is the primary tool for data-informed inference of Earth structure and dynamics. Simulating seismic wave propagation at a global scale is fundamental to seismology, but remains as one of most challenging problems in scientific computing, because of both the multiscale nature of Earth's interior and the observable frequency band of seismic data. We present a novel numerical method to simulate global seismic wave propagation in realistic 3-D Earth models. Our method, named AxiSEM3D, is a hybrid of spectral element method and pseudospectral method. It reduces the azimuthal dimension of wavefields by means of a global Fourier series parameterization, of which the number of terms can be locally adapted to the inherent azimuthal smoothness of the wavefields. AxiSEM3D allows not only for material heterogeneities, such as velocity, density, anisotropy and attenuation, but also for finite undulations on radial discontinuities, both solid-solid and solid-fluid, and thereby a variety of aspherical Earth features such as ellipticity, topography, variable crustal thickness, and core-mantle boundary topography. Such interface undulations are equivalently interpreted as material perturbations of the contiguous media, based on the "particle relabelling transformation". Efficiency comparisons show that AxiSEM3D can be 1 to 3 orders of magnitude faster than conventional 3-D methods, with the speedup increasing with simulation frequency and decreasing with model complexity, but for all realistic structures the speedup remains at least one order of magnitude. The observable frequency range of global seismic data (up to 1 Hz) has been covered for wavefield modelling upon a 3-D Earth model with reasonable computing resources. We show an application of surface wave modelling within a state-of-the-art global crustal model (Crust1.0), with the synthetics compared to real data. The high-performance C++ code is released at

  7. Study of electromagnetic emissions associated with seismic activity in Kamchatka region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Gladychev


    Full Text Available A review of data processing of electromagnetic emission observation collected at the Complex Geophysical Observatory Karimshino (Kamchatka peninsula during the first 5 months (July–November, 2000 of its operation is given. The main goal of this study addresses the detection of the phenomena associated with Kamchatka seismic activity. The following observations have been conducted at CGO: variations of ULF/ELF magnetic field, geoelectric potentials (telluric currents, and VLF signals from navigation radio transmitters. The methods of data processing of these observations are discussed. The examples of the first experimental results are presented.

  8. Evaluation of high frequency ghost cavitation emissions for two different seismic air-gun arrays using numerical modelling (United States)

    Khodabandeloo, Babak; Landrø, Martin


    Sound is deployed by marine mammals for variety of vital purposes such as finding food, communication, echolocation, etc. On the other hand human activities generate underwater noise. One major type of acoustic source is marine seismic acquisition which is carried out to image layers beneath the seabed exploiting reflected acoustic and elastic waves. Air-gun arrays are the most common and efficient marine seismic sources. Field measurements using broad band hydrophones have revealed that acoustic energies emitted by air-gun arrays contains frequencies from a few Hz up to tens of kHz. Frequencies below 200 Hz benefit seismic imaging and the rest is normally considered as wasted energy. On the other hand, the high frequency range (above 200 Hz) overlaps with hearing curves of many marine mammals and especially toothed whales and may have an impact on their behavior. A phenomenon called ghost cavitation is recently recognized to be responsible for a major part of these high frequencies (> 5 kHz). Acoustic pressure waves of individual air guns reflected from sea surface can cause the hydrostatic pressure to drop towards zero close to the source array. In these regions there is a high probability for water vapor cavity growth and subsequent collapse. We have simulated ghost cavitation cloud using numerical modelling and the results are validated by comparing with field measurements. The model is used to compare the amount of high frequency noise due to ghost cavitation for two different air gun arrays. Both of the arrays have three subarrays but the array distance for the one with 2730 in3 air volume is 6 meters and for the slightly bigger array (3250 in3 in air volume) the subarrays are separated by 8 meters. Simulation results indicate that the second array, despite larger subarray distance, generates stronger ghost cavitation signal.

  9. Seismic response of base-isolated buildings using a viscoelastic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uras, R.A.


    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology,seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly gaining acceptance as a design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, the fundamental frequency of the structure can be reduced to a value that is lower than the dominant frequencies of earthquake ground motions. The other feature of an isolation system is that it can provide a mechanism for energy dissipation. In the USA, the use of seismic base-isolation has become an alternate strategy for advanced Liquid Metal-cooled Reactors (LMRs). ANL has been deeply involved in the development and implementation of seismic isolation for use in both nuclear facilities and civil structures for the past decade. Shimizu Corporation of Japan has a test facility at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan. The test facility has two buildings: one is base isolated and the other is conventionally founded. The buildings are full-size, three-story reinforced concrete structures. The dimensions and construction of the superstructures are identical. They were built side by side in a seismically active area. In 1988, the ANL/Shimizu Joint Program was established to study the differences in behavior of base-isolated and ordinarily founded structures when subjected to earthquake loading. A more comprehensive description of this joint program is presented in a companion paper (Wang et al. 1993). With the increased use of elastomeric polymers in industrial applications such as isolation bearings, the importance of constitutive modeling of viscoelastic materials is more and more pronounced. A realistic representation of material behavior is essential for computer simulations to replicate the response observed in experiments.

  10. Modeling Seismic Wave Propagation Using Time-Dependent Cauchy-Navier Splines (United States)

    Kammann, P.


    Our intention is the modeling of seismic wave propagation from displacement measurements by seismographs at the Earth's surface. The elastic behaviour of the Earth is usually described by the Cauchy-Navier equation. A system of fundamental solutions for the Fourier transformed Cauchy-Navier equation are the Hansen vectors L, M and N. We apply an inverse Fourier transform to obtain an orthonormal function system depending on time and space. By means of this system we construct certain splines, which are then used for interpolating the given data. Compared to polynomial interpolation, splines have the advantage that they minimize some curvature measure and are, therefore, smoother. First, we test this method on a synthetic wave function. Afterwards, we apply it to realistic earthquake data. (P. Kammann, Modelling Seismic Wave Propagation Using Time-Dependent Cauchy-Navier Splines, Diploma Thesis, Geomathematics Group, Department of Mathematics, University of Kaiserslautern, 2005)

  11. Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzette Payne


    This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

  12. Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzette Payne


    This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

  13. Applicability of fiber model in seismic response analysis for center-clamp type bushings on transformers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyagawa, Yoshinori; Sato, Hiroaki


    A bushing is a device for insulation and support of a conductor. Especially it is called center-clamp type when it is connected with a metal holder through clamping force. As a consequence of damage of center-clamp type bushings in Tohoku Earthquake in 2011, refinement of the response analysis method and review of the seismic design procedure became necessary. In the present report, the fiber model, which can evaluate non-linear behavior in the section subjected to axial force and bending moment, was implemented to the CRIEPI's finite element analysis program 'Mastrd' considering following characteristics of center-clamp type bushings. a) The gasket section between a porcelain tube and a metal holder has a torus shape. b) Springs around the top of the bushing give clamping force, but they lock in excessive base rotation. c) The gasket does not resist against tension. d) Local resistance against compression due to bending increases in use of very thin gaskets. The developed program was verified through comparison with the shaking table test result for real bushings whose voltage classes were 154 kV and 275 kV. Deformation indices as rotation angle and base opening due to bending were influenced by damping conditions. Though there was not the condition which brought about remarkable underestimation, reduction of damping for a fiber model element was preferable for safety. On the other hand, bending moment was consistent with experimental results because it tended not to fluctuate in the non-linear region. (author)

  14. The importance of earthquake-induced landslides to long-term slope erosion and slope-failure hazards in seismically active regions (United States)

    Keefer, D.K.


    This paper describes a general method for determining the amount of earthquake-induced landsliding that occurs in a seismically active region over time; this determination can be used as a quantitative measure of the long-term hazard from seismically triggered landslides as well as a measure of the importance of this process to regional slope-erosion rates and landscape evolution. The method uses data from historical earthquakes to relate total volume of landslide material dislodged by an earthquake to the magnitude, M, and seismic moment, M0, of the earthquake. From worldwide data, a linear-regression relation between landslide volume, V, and M0 is determined as: V = M0/1018.9(?? 0.13), where V is measured in m3 and M0 is in dyn-cm. To determine the amount of earthquake-generated landsliding over time, this relation is combined with data on seismic-moment release for a particular region, which may be derived from either earthquake-history or fault-slip data. The form of the M0-V relation allows the rate of production of earthquake-induced landslides over time to be determined from total rate of seismic-moment release without regard to the distribution of individual events, thus simplifying and generalizing the determination. Application of the method to twelve seismically active regions, with areas ranging from 13,275 to 2,308,000 km2, shows that erosion rates from earthquake-induced landslides vary significantly from region to region. Of the regions studied, the highest rates were determined for the island of Hawaii, New Zealand, western New Guinea, and the San Francisco Bay region of California. Significantly lower rates were determined for Iran, Tibet, the Sierra Nevada-Great Basin region of California, and central Japan (for the time period from 715 AD to the present). Intermediate rates were determined for Peru, southern California, onshore California, Turkey, and central Japan (for the time period from 1586 AD to the present). To determine the relative, long

  15. Application of thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models of concrete in the seismic analysis of concrete dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leng Fei


    Full Text Available This paper discusses the seismic analysis of concrete dams with consideration of material nonlinearity. Based on a consistent rate-dependent model and two thermodynamics-based models, two thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models were developed with consideration of the influence of the strain rate. They can describe the dynamic behavior of concrete and be applied to nonlinear seismic analysis of concrete dams taking into account the rate sensitivity of concrete. With the two models, a nonlinear analysis of the seismic response of the Koyna Gravity Dam and the Dagangshan Arch Dam was conducted. The results were compared with those of a linear elastic model and two rate-independent thermodynamics-based constitutive models, and the influences of constitutive models and strain rate on the seismic response of concrete dams were discussed. It can be concluded from the analysis that, during seismic response, the tensile stress is the control stress in the design and seismic safety evaluation of concrete dams. In different models, the plastic strain and plastic strain rate of concrete dams show a similar distribution. When the influence of the strain rate is considered, the maximum plastic strain and plastic strain rate decrease.

  16. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Ullah


    Full Text Available Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999, aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s2. In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth < 50 km seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64, intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8, 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.

  17. Shortcomings of the Winkler Model in the Assessment of Sectioned Tunnels under Seismic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Lyngs, J. H.


    A Winkler-type model is often applied in the design of tunnels subject to seismic loading. Since the subgrade stiffness is modelled by disjoint springs, distributed continuously along the tunnel, the model does not account for retroaction via the soil. This may not be a problem in the design of t......-element solution, using a planned tunnel at Thessaloniki, Greece, as a case study. The aim of the analysis is to quantify the inaccuracy of the Winkler model in the prediction of damage at a gasket between two tunnel elements....

  18. Mental Models about Seismic Effects: Students' Profile Based Comparative Analysis (United States)

    Moutinho, Sara; Moura, Rui; Vasconcelos, Clara


    Nowadays, meaningful learning takes a central role in science education and is based in mental models that allow the representation of the real world by individuals. Thus, it is essential to analyse the student's mental models by promoting an easier reconstruction of scientific knowledge, by allowing them to become consistent with the curricular…

  19. Seismic and Infrasound Energy Generation and Propagation at Local and Regional Distances Phase 1 - Divine Strake Experiment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stump, Brian; Burlacu, Relu; Hayward, Chris; Pankow, Kristine; Nava, Sue; Bonner, Jessie; Hock, Sebastin; Whiteman, David; Fisher, Aileen; Kim, Tae-Sung


    Eleven single infrasound systems and six infrasound arrays were deployed at existing seismic sites in Utah in order to gather a comprehensive set of seismic and infrasound recordings from rocket motor explosions...

  20. Investigation on the geological structures obstructing the propagation of seismic waves - Based on physical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Yul; Hyun, Hye ja; Kim, Yoo Sung [Korea Institute of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)


    In petroleum exploration seismic reflection method is by far the most widely used. The resulting seismogram or seismic trace consists of many wavelets with different strengths and arrival times, due to the wavefront that have traveled different source-to receiver paths. In this sense, the seismic trace may be represented as a convolution of a wavelet with an impulse response denoting the various wavelet amplitudes and arrival times present in the trace. However, the wavelet suffers dif