WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling reference scenarios

  1. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  2. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  3. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  6. Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Curt; Schaefer, Jacob; Burken, John J.; Johnson, Marcus; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

  7. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  8. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  9. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to the travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  10. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the cost-benefit analysis, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to assess these biases in a so-called reference scenario...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  11. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  12. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  13. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  14. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  15. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  16. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  17. Assessment of potential suspended sediment yield in Japan in the 21st century with reference to the general circulation model climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Golosov, Valentin; Chalov, Sergey; Takizawa, Satoshi; Oguma, Kumiko; Yoshimura, Kei; Shiiba, Michiharu; Hori, Tomoharu; Oki, Taikan

    2013-03-01

    In recent decades, soil erosion by water has become a worldwide problem, especially with climate change and progressive declines in the ratio of natural resources to human populations. Changes in future climate will influence soil erosion, particularly suspended sediment (SS) yield, and alter the effectiveness of water resources management strategies from a water quality perspective. We qualitatively assessed future changes in SS yield in Japan. We focused on the impacts of future hydrological changes projected by two models, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) and the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), whose results have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on SS in Japan depend on the balance between changes in climatic and geologic factors. Methods for assessing impact using the catchment simulator were expanded to estimate the SS yield for the whole of Japan. The results indicated that SS generation will increase by the 2090s, with an 8% increase predicted using MRI-GCM data and a 24% increase using MIROC data, compared to present-day values measured by the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Analysis by month showed the largest increases in SS in September, related to the frequency of extreme events such as typhoons. Increased SS can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including reduced crop productivity, worsened water quality, lower effective reservoir water levels, flooding and habitat destruction. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on SS generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management.

  18. Reference Man anatomical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristy, M.

    1994-10-01

    The 70-kg Standard Man or Reference Man has been used in physiological models since at least the 1920s to represent adult males. It came into use in radiation protection in the late 1940s and was developed extensively during the 1950s and used by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in its Publication 2 in 1959. The current Reference Man for Purposes of Radiation Protection is a monumental book published in 1975 by the ICRP as ICRP Publication 23. It has a wealth of information useful for radiation dosimetry, including anatomical and physiological data, gross and elemental composition of the body and organs and tissues of the body. The anatomical data includes specified reference values for an adult male and an adult female. Other reference values are primarily for the adult male. The anatomical data include much data on fetuses and children, although reference values are not established. There is an ICRP task group currently working on revising selected parts of the Reference Man document.

  19. Extending reference assembly models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Church, Deanna M.; Schneider, Valerie A.; Steinberg, Karyn Meltz

    2015-01-01

    The human genome reference assembly is crucial for aligning and analyzing sequence data, and for genome annotation, among other roles. However, the models and analysis assumptions that underlie the current assembly need revising to fully represent human sequence diversity. Improved analysis tools...

  20. Extending reference assembly models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Church, Deanna M.; Schneider, Valerie A.; Steinberg, Karyn Meltz;

    2015-01-01

    The human genome reference assembly is crucial for aligning and analyzing sequence data, and for genome annotation, among other roles. However, the models and analysis assumptions that underlie the current assembly need revising to fully represent human sequence diversity. Improved analysis tools...

  1. The Reference Encounter Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Marilyn Domas

    1983-01-01

    Develops model of the reference interview which explicitly incorporates human information processing, particularly schema ideas presented by Marvin Minsky and other theorists in cognitive processing and artificial intelligence. Questions are raised concerning use of content analysis of transcribed verbal protocols as methodology for studying…

  2. Charging of mobile services by mobile payment reference model

    OpenAIRE

    Pousttchi, Key; Wiedemann, Dietmar Georg

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze mobile payments in the mobile commerce scenario. Therefore, we first classify the mobile payment in the mobile commerce scenario by explaining general offer models, charging concepts, and intermediaries. Second, we describe the mobile payment reference model, especially, the mobile payment reference organization model and different mobile payment standard types. Finally, we conclude our findings.

  3. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  4. Storm-impact scenario XBeach model inputs and tesults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-01-01

    The XBeach model input and output of topography and bathymetry resulting from simulation of storm-impact scenarios at the Chandeleur Islands, LA, as described in USGS Open-File Report 2017–1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry refer to USGS Open-File Report 2017–1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009).

  5. Three-dimensional data assimilation for ionospheric reference scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Hoque, Mainul M.; Schlüter, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    The reliable estimation of ionospheric refraction effects is an important topic in the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) positioning and navigation domain, especially in safety-of-life applications. This paper describes a three-dimensional ionosphere reconstruction approach that combines three data sources with an ionospheric background model: space- and ground-based total electron content (TEC) measurements and ionosonde observations. First the background model is adjusted by F2 layer characteristics, obtained from space-based ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) profiles and ionosonde data, and secondly the final electron density distribution is estimated by an algebraic reconstruction technique.The method described is validated by TEC measurements of independent ground-based GNSS stations, space-based TEC from the Jason 1 and 2 satellites, and ionosonde observations. A significant improvement is achieved by the data assimilation, with a decrease in the residual errors by up to 98 % compared to the initial guess of the background. Furthermore, the results underpin the capability of space-based measurements to overcome data gaps in reconstruction areas where less GNSS ground-station infrastructure exists.

  6. Preliminary reference Earth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziewonski, Adam M.; Anderson, Don L.

    1981-06-01

    A large data set consisting of about 1000 normal mode periods, 500 summary travel time observations, 100 normal mode Q values, mass and moment of inertia have been inverted to obtain the radial distribution of elastic properties, Q values and density in the Earth's interior. The data set was supplemented with a special study of 12 years of ISC phase data which yielded an additional 1.75 × 10 6 travel time observations for P and S waves. In order to obtain satisfactory agreement with the entire data set we were required to take into account anelastic dispersion. The introduction of transverse isotropy into the outer 220 km of the mantle was required in order to satisfy the shorter period fundamental toroidal and spheroidal modes. This anisotropy also improved the fit of the larger data set. The horizontal and vertical velocities in the upper mantle differ by 2-4%, both for P and S waves. The mantle below 220 km is not required to be anisotropic. Mantle Rayleigh waves are surprisingly sensitive to compressional velocity in the upper mantle. High S n velocities, low P n velocities and a pronounced low-velocity zone are features of most global inversion models that are suppressed when anisotropy is allowed for in the inversion. The Preliminary Reference Earth Model, PREM, and auxiliary tables showing fits to the data are presented.

  7. [IQWiG's methods for the cost-benefit assessment : Comparison with an international reference scenario].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, A; Danner, M; Seidl, A; Volz, F; Dintsios, C M; Gerber, A

    2010-06-01

    Standardization of international health economic guidelines has been repeatedly requested. In this context, an international reference case was proposed, which constitutes an agreed approach for the key elements of health economic evaluation including study perspective, comparators, source of effectiveness data, role of modeling, main (economic) outcome, source of utilities, characterizing uncertainty. It is, however, questionable whether such a reference scenario can reasonably be applied across all health care systems. Our analysis pursues the question to which degree the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen, IQWiG) "General methods for evaluating the relation between cost and benefit" comply with the key elements of the reference case. In case of divergences, they will be described and discussed in light of the German social legislation and in consideration of current scientific evidence. In conclusion, the analysis revealed that IQWiG complied with the reference case in almost all aspects. Differences were found only with respect to the choice of main (economic) outcome and the source of utilities. These differences seem justified and well explained in the context of the German social legislation as well as in view of the weaknesses of the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) concept.

  8. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  9. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...... management systems. The study focuses on Europe in terms of waste composition and exchange with the energy system. The waste management systems modeled are described with respect to waste composition, waste management technologies, mass flows and energy exchange in the systems. Results are first presented...

  10. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  11. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  12. ORGANIZING SCENARIO VARIABLES BY APPLYING THE INTERPRETATIVE STRUCTURAL MODELING (ISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Estima de Carvalho

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The scenario building method is a thought mode - taken to effect in an optimized, strategic manner - based on trends and uncertain events, concerning a large variety of potential results that may impact the future of an organization.In this study, the objective is to contribute towards a possible improvement in Godet and Schoemaker´s scenario preparation methods, by employing the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM as a tool for the analysis of variables.Given this is an exploratory theme, bibliographical research with tool definition and analysis, examples extraction from literature and a comparison exercise of referred methods, were undertaken.It was verified that ISM may substitute or complement the original tools for the analysis of variables of scenarios per Godet and Schoemaker’s methods, given the fact that it enables an in-depth analysis of relations between variables in a shorter period of time, facilitating both structuring and construction of possible scenarios.Key-words: Strategy. Future studies. Interpretative Structural Modeling.

  13. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  14. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  15. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  16. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Mainul Hoque, M.; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Schlüter, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to Safety of Live (SoL) users of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, which are aiming to support the design, development and qualification of the future operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. The ionosphere is the part of the upper Earth's atmosphere between about 50 km and 1000 km above the Earth's surface, which contains sufficient free electrons to cause strong impact on radio signal propagation. Therefore, treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue to guarantee the EGNOS system performance. In order to conduct the EGNOS end-to-end performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining integrity of the EGNOS system especially during ionospheric storm conditions, Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are introduced by ESA. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims to generate improved EGNOS IRSs by combining space borne and ground based GNSS observations. The main focus of this project is to demonstrate that ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. The primary tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs (i.e. TEC maps) by a 3D assimilation approach that combines IRO and ground based GNSS measurements with an ionospheric background model in an optimal way. In the first phase of the project we selected appropriate test periods, one presenting perturbed and the other one - nominal ionospheric conditions, collected and filtered the corresponding data. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied

  17. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and achieved outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Hoque, Mainul; Minkwitz, David; Schlueter, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The ionosphere is the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, where sufficient free electrons exist to affect the propagation of radio waves. Therefore, the treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue for many applications dealing with trans-ionospheric signals such as GNSS positioning, GNSS related augmentation systems (e.g. EGNOS and WAAS) and remote sensing. The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to safety critical GNSS applications, e.g. aviation and maritime traffic. In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, supporting the design, development and qualification of the operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are used by ESA in order to conduct the EGNOS performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining accuracy, integrity and availability of the EGNOS system, especially during ionospheric storm conditions. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims the provision of improved EGNOS IRSs. The main tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs by a 3D assimilation approach that combines space borne and ground based GNSS observations as well as ionosonde measurements with an ionospheric background model. The special focus thereby is to demonstrate that space-based measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. In this project we selected test periods of perturbed and nominal ionospheric conditions and filtered the collected data for outliers. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied this technique for the generation of IRSs covering the EGNOS V3 extended service area. Afterwards the

  18. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  19. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  20. Reference Models for Virtual Enterprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tølle, Martin; Bernus, Peter; Vesterager, Johan

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses different types of Reference Models (RMs) applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of virtual enterprises (VEs). RMs are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE towards a configuration task, and hence reduce the time...... needed for VE creation. The RMs are analysed through a mapping onto the Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (VERA) created in the IMS GLOBEMEN project based upon GERAM.......This paper analyses different types of Reference Models (RMs) applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of virtual enterprises (VEs). RMs are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE towards a configuration task, and hence reduce the time...

  1. Reference Models for Virtual Enterprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tølle, Martin; Bernus, Peter; Vesterager, Johan

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses different types of Reference Models (RMs) applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of virtual enterprises (VEs). RMs are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE towards a configuration task, and hence reduce the time...... needed for VE creation. The RMs are analysed through a mapping onto the Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (VERA) created in the IMS GLOBEMEN project based upon GERAM.......This paper analyses different types of Reference Models (RMs) applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of virtual enterprises (VEs). RMs are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE towards a configuration task, and hence reduce the time...

  2. Scenario-building considerations for financial planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, S.; Carino, D.

    1994-12-31

    The construction of scenarios is an essential model-building step in stochastic programming. When a discrete sample of scenarios is chosen to represent a continuity of potential outcomes, scenario choice can impact both solution speed and quality. For financial planning models, techniques are discussed that ensure a scenario set matches moments of the continuous distribution and improvements in solution speed and quality are investigated.

  3. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  5. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  6. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  7. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  8. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  9. Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Urban Micro- and Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Rangan, Sundeep

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents and compares two candidate large-scale propagation path loss models, the alpha-beta-gamma (ABG) model and the close-in (CI) free space reference distance model, for the design of fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban micro- and macro-cellular scenarios....

  10. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  11. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edeling, W.N., E-mail: W.N.Edeling@tudelft.nl [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands); Cinnella, P., E-mail: P.Cinnella@ensam.eu [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Dwight, R.P., E-mail: R.P.Dwight@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  12. The Reference Forward Model (RFM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudhia, Anu

    2017-01-01

    The Reference Forward Model (RFM) is a general purpose line-by-line radiative transfer model, currently supported by the UK National Centre for Earth Observation. This paper outlines the algorithms used by the RFM, focusing on standard calculations of terrestrial atmospheric infrared spectra followed by a brief summary of some additional capabilities and extensions to microwave wavelengths and extraterrestrial atmospheres. At its most basic level - the 'line-by-line' component - it calculates molecular absorption cross-sections by applying the Voigt lineshape to all transitions up to ±25 cm-1 from line-centre. Alternatively, absorptions can be directly interpolated from various forms of tabulated data. These cross-sections are then used to construct infrared radiance or transmittance spectra for ray paths through homogeneous cells, plane-parallel or circular atmospheres. At a higher level, the RFM can apply instrumental convolutions to simulate measurements from Fourier transform spectrometers. It can also calculate Jacobian spectra and so act as a stand-alone forward model within a retrieval scheme. The RFM is designed for robustness, flexibility and ease-of-use (particularly by the non-expert), and no claims are made for superior accuracy, or indeed novelty, compared to other line-by-line codes. Its main limitations at present are a lack of scattering and simplified modelling of surface reflectance and line-mixing.

  13. Using Interaction Scenarios to Model Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars; Bøgh Andersen, Peter

    The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a set of interaction primitives that can be used to model the dynamics of socio-technical activity systems, including information systems, in a way that emphasizes structural aspects of the interaction that occurs in such systems. The primitives...

  14. Virtual Reference, Real Money: Modeling Costs in Virtual Reference Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eakin, Lori; Pomerantz, Jeffrey

    2009-01-01

    Libraries nationwide are in yet another phase of belt tightening. Without an understanding of the economic factors that influence library operations, however, controlling costs and performing cost-benefit analyses on services is difficult. This paper describes a project to develop a cost model for collaborative virtual reference services. This…

  15. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  16. Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses: signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bormann

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well known that model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is no objective criterion to decide whether a model is suitable for a particular application or not. This paper introduces a comparative index between the uncertainty of a model and the change effects of scenario calculations which enables the modeller to objectively decide about suitability of a model to be applied in scenario analysis studies. The index is called "signal-to-noise-ratio", and it is applied for an exemplary scenario study which was performed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project in Benin. The conceptual UHP model was applied on the upper Ouémé basin. Although model calibration and validation were successful, uncertainties on model parameters and input data could be identified. Applying the "signal-to-noise-ratio" on regional scale subcatchments of the upper Ouémé comparing water availability indicators for uncertainty studies and scenario analyses the UHP model turned out to be suitable to predict long-term water balances under the present poor data availability and changing environmental conditions in subhumid West Africa.

  17. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  18. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...... investment analysis....

  19. SAM Photovoltaic Model Technical Reference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilman, P. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-27

    This manual describes the photovoltaic performance model in the System Advisor Model (SAM). The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory maintains and distributes SAM, which is available as a free download from https://sam.nrel.gov. These descriptions are based on SAM 2015.1.30 (SSC 41).

  20. Reference Inflow Characterization for River Resource Reference Model (RM2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neary, Vincent S [ORNL

    2011-12-01

    Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) is leading an effort to develop reference models for marine and hydrokinetic technologies and wave and current energy resources. This effort will allow the refinement of technology design tools, accurate estimates of a baseline levelized cost of energy (LCoE), and the identification of the main cost drivers that need to be addressed to achieve a competitive LCoE. As part of this effort, Oak Ridge National Laboratory was charged with examining and reporting reference river inflow characteristics for reference model 2 (RM2). Published turbulent flow data from large rivers, a water supply canal and laboratory flumes, are reviewed to determine the range of velocities, turbulence intensities and turbulent stresses acting on hydrokinetic technologies, and also to evaluate the validity of classical models that describe the depth variation of the time-mean velocity and turbulent normal Reynolds stresses. The classical models are found to generally perform well in describing river inflow characteristics. A potential challenge in river inflow characterization, however, is the high variability of depth and flow over the design life of a hydrokinetic device. This variation can have significant effects on the inflow mean velocity and turbulence intensity experienced by stationary and bottom mounted hydrokinetic energy conversion devices, which requires further investigation, but are expected to have minimal effects on surface mounted devices like the vertical axis turbine device designed for RM2. A simple methodology for obtaining an approximate inflow characterization for surface deployed devices is developed using the relation umax=(7/6)V where V is the bulk velocity and umax is assumed to be the near-surface velocity. The application of this expression is recommended for deriving the local inflow velocity acting on the energy extraction planes of the RM2 vertical axis rotors, where V=Q/A can be calculated given a USGS gage flow time

  1. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  2. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  3. A Reference Model for Online Learning Communities

    OpenAIRE

    Seufert, Sabine; Lechner, Ulrike; Stanoevska, Katarina

    2002-01-01

    Online learning communities are introduced as a comprehensive model for technology-enabled learning. We give an analysis of goals in education and the requirements to community platforms. The main contribution of the article is a reference model for online learning communities that consists of four layers designing the organizational, interaction, channel or service and the technological model of learning communities. This reference model captures didactic goals, learning methods and learning...

  4. Modelling of hybrid scenario: from present-day experiments towards ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litaudon, X.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Artaud, J. F.; Belo, P.; Bizarro, João P. S.; Casper, T.; Citrin, J.; Fable, E.; Ferreira, J.; Garcia, J.; Garzotti, L.; Giruzzi, G.; Hobirk, J.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Imbeaux, F.; Joffrin, E.; Koechl, F.; Liu, F.; Lönnroth, J.; Moreau, D.; Parail, V.; Schneider, M.; Snyder, P. B.; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET-EFDA; the EU-ITM ITER Scenario Modelling Group

    2013-07-01

    The ‘hybrid’ scenario is an attractive operating scenario for ITER since it combines long plasma duration with the reliability of the reference H-mode regime. We review the recent European modelling effort carried out within the Integrated Scenario Modelling group which aims at (i) understanding the underlying physics of the hybrid regime in ASDEX-Upgrade and JET and (ii) extrapolating them towards ITER. JET and ASDEX-Upgrade hybrid scenarios performed under different experimental conditions have been simulated in an interpretative and predictive way in order to address the current profile dynamics and its link with core confinement, the relative importance of magnetic shear, s, and E × B flow shear on the core turbulence, pedestal stability and H-L transition. The correlation of the improved confinement with an increased s/q at outer radii observed in JET and ASDEX-Upgrade discharges is consistent with the predictions based on the GLF23 model applied in the simulations of the ion and electron kinetic profiles. Projections to ITER hybrid scenarios have been carried out focusing on optimization of the heating/current drive schemes to reach and ultimately control the desired plasma equilibrium using ITER actuators. Firstly, access condition to the hybrid-like q-profiles during the current ramp-up phase has been investigated. Secondly, from the interpreted role of the s/q ratio, ITER hybrid scenario flat-top performance has been optimized through tailoring the q-profile shape and pedestal conditions. EPED predictions of pedestal pressure and width have been used as constraints in the interpretative modelling while the core heat transport is predicted by GLF23. Finally, model-based approach for real-time control of advanced tokamak scenarios has been applied to ITER hybrid regime for simultaneous magnetic and kinetic profile control.

  5. A Comparison Between the OSI Reference Model and the B-ISDN Protocol Reference Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalhagen, Lars

    1996-01-01

    This article aims at comparing the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) Reference Model (RM) and the broadband integrated services digital network (B-ISDN) Protocol Reference Model (PRM). According to the International Telecommunications Union - Telecommunications Sector (ITU-T), the exact...

  6. Kinetic modelling of runaway electrons in dynamic scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Stahl, A; Papp, G; Landreman, M; Fülöp, T

    2016-01-01

    Improved understanding of runaway-electron formation and decay processes are of prime interest for the safe operation of large tokamaks, and the dynamics of the runaway electrons during dynamical scenarios such as disruptions are of particular concern. In this paper, we present kinetic modelling of scenarios with time-dependent plasma parameters; in particular, we investigate hot-tail runaway generation during a rapid drop in plasma temperature. With the goal of studying runaway-electron generation with a self-consistent electric-field evolution, we also discuss the implementation of a conservative collision operator and demonstrate its properties. An operator for avalanche runaway-electron generation, which takes the energy dependence of the scattering cross section and the runaway distribution into account, is investigated. We show that the simpler avalanche model of Rosenbluth & Putvinskii [Nucl. Fusion 37, 1355 (1997)] can give very inaccurate results for the avalanche growth rate (either lower or hig...

  7. A periodic pricing model considering reference effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal pricing strategies with reference effects in revenue management settings. We firstly propose a static pricing model with the properties of stochastic demand, finite horizon and fixed capacity, and prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Secondly, we extend the fixed pricing model to a periodic pricing model and incorporate a memory-based reference price in the demand function to investigate how the reference effect impacts on traditional revenue management decisions. We present numerical examples in both low demand situations and high demand situations for different levels of reference effects and different updating frequencies. The results show that the dynamic pricing strategies are superior to a static one even when reference effects are taken into consideration. We also provide some manage-rial insights including pricing directions, pricing dispersion and the optimal updating frequency for both demand situations.

  8. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  9. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  10. Model independent constraints on mass-varying neutrino scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Franca, Urbano; Lesgourgues, Julien; Pastor, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    Models of dark energy in which neutrinos interact with the scalar field supposed to be responsible for the acceleration of the universe usually imply a variation of the neutrino masses on cosmological time scales. In this work we propose a parameterization for the neutrino mass variation that captures the essentials of those scenarios and allows to constrain them in a model independent way, that is, without resorting to any particular scalar field model. Using WMAP 5yr data combined with the matter power spectrum of SDSS and 2dFGRS, the limit on the present value of the neutrino mass is $m_0 \\equiv m_{\

  11. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  12. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  13. Evaluation of human thorax FE model in various impact scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jansová M.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the validation of the 50th percentile male model — a detailed FE model of the thoracic segment of the human body developed within project Development of a Finite Element Model of the Human Thorax and Upper Extremities (THOMO co-funded by the European Commission (7th Framework Programme. The model response was tested in three impact scenarios: frontal, lateral and oblique. The resulting impactor contact force vs. time and chest deflection vs. time responses were compared with experimental results. The strain profile of the 5th rib was checked with lateral and oblique strain profiles from post-mortem human subject (PMHS experiments. The influence of heart and lungs on the mechanical response of the model was assessed and the material data configuration, giving the most biofidelic thorax behaviour, was identified.

  14. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...... the overall energy system model for analyzing three subjects which are important but uncertain areas in the future. The first model is a consequential LCA analysis for biomass potential. The second model targets transport demand due to uncertain technology development in the future transport sector. The third...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...

  15. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  16. Modeling Zinc Intake for Intervention and Scenario Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, Nazanin; Amini, Manouchehr; Hurrell, Richard; Schulin, Rainer

    2015-06-01

    A large number of illnesses, afflicting one-third of the world's population, have been attributed to zinc deficiency. Inadequate dietary intake of bioavailable forms of zinc is considered the most frequent cause of zinc deficiency, which is most common in arid regions of developing countries. To employ a modeling approach in a test population to analyze how best to eliminate zinc deficiency using different plausible dietary scenarios. A comprehensive database was built upon food consumption patterns of two population groups residing in a village and a suburb in semiarid central Iran near Isfahan city. A database was created on zinc and phytic acid concentrations of different foods and ingredients consumed by the study populations. A zinc intake model was constructed and parameterized accounting for bioavailability and model input uncertainties. The zinc intake of about one-third of both study populations, which did not differ significantly in their rates of zinc deficiency, was below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) for zinc. Scenario analyses predicted that at the current rate of food consumption, it would take up to 60 years for 97.5% of the population to meet their zinc EARs. Fortification of wheat flour and biofortification of wheat grains would result in 93% and 88% of the population, respectively, achieving their EARs in 15 years. The modeled results suggest that fortification and biofortification are the most effective and sustainable strategies to combat zinc deficiency. The methodology developed in this study is general and is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of possible future trends and intervention scenarios. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Yao; LIU Shi-liang; SHEN Qi-rong; ZONG Liang-gang; JIANG Ding-an; HUANG Hong-guang

    2002-01-01

    A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general agreed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291 * * * (n = 48) and 0. 6431 * * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg,0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

  18. Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Ashley B; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

  19. Model checking coalitional games in shortage resource scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Della Monica

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Verification of multi-agents systems (MAS has been recently studied taking into account the need of expressing resource bounds. Several logics for specifying properties of MAS have been presented in quite a variety of scenarios with bounded resources. In this paper, we study a different formalism, called Priced Resource-Bounded Alternating-time Temporal Logic (PRBATL, whose main novelty consists in moving the notion of resources from a syntactic level (part of the formula to a semantic one (part of the model. This allows us to track the evolution of the resource availability along the computations and provides us with a formalisms capable to model a number of real-world scenarios. Two relevant aspects are the notion of global availability of the resources on the market, that are shared by the agents, and the notion of price of resources, depending on their availability. In a previous work of ours, an initial step towards this new formalism was introduced, along with an EXPTIME algorithm for the model checking problem. In this paper we better analyze the features of the proposed formalism, also in comparison with previous approaches. The main technical contribution is the proof of the EXPTIME-hardness of the the model checking problem for PRBATL, based on a reduction from the acceptance problem for Linearly-Bounded Alternating Turing Machines. In particular, since the problem has multiple parameters, we show two fixed-parameter reductions.

  20. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  1. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, Lydia P; Murray, Brian C [Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University (United States); Gibbs, Holly K [Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison (United States); Steininger, Marc [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International (United States); Swenson, Jennifer J [Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University (United States)

    2008-04-15

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data

  2. A reference model for database security proxy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    How to protect the database, the kernel resources of information warfare, is becoming more and more important since the rapid development of computer and communication technology. As an application-level firewall, database security proxy can successfully repulse attacks originated from outside the network, reduce to zerolevel damage from foreign DBMS products. We enhanced the capability of the COAST's firewall reference model by adding a transmission unit modification function and an attribute value mapping function, describes the schematic and semantic layer reference model, and finally forms a reference model for DBMS security proxy which greatly helps in the design and implementation of database security proxies. This modeling process can clearly separate the system functionality into three layers, define the possible security functions for each layer, and estimate the computational cost for each layer.

  3. A reference model for database security proxy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡亮; 杨小虎; 董金祥

    2002-01-01

    How to protect the database, the kernel resources of information warfare, is becoming more and more important since the rapid development of computer and communication technology. As an application-level firewall, database security proxy can successfully repulse attacks originated from outside the network, reduce to zerolevel damage from foreign DBMS products. We enhanced the capability of the COAST' s firewall reference model by adding a transmission unit modification function and an attribute value mapping function,describes the schematic and semantic layer reference model, and finally forms a reference model for DBMS security proxy which greatly helps in the design and implementation of database security proxies. This modeling process can clearly separate the system functionality into three layers, define the possible security functions for each layer, and estimate the computational cost for each layer.

  4. Kinetic modelling of runaway electrons in dynamic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, A.; Embréus, O.; Papp, G.; Landreman, M.; Fülöp, T.

    2016-11-01

    Improved understanding of runaway-electron formation and decay processes are of prime interest for the safe operation of large tokamaks, and the dynamics of the runaway electrons during dynamical scenarios such as disruptions are of particular concern. In this paper, we present kinetic modelling of scenarios with time-dependent plasma parameters; in particular, we investigate hot-tail runaway generation during a rapid drop in plasma temperature. With the goal of studying runaway-electron generation with a self-consistent electric-field evolution, we also discuss the implementation of a collision operator that conserves momentum and energy and demonstrate its properties. An operator for avalanche runaway-electron generation, which takes the energy dependence of the scattering cross section and the runaway distribution into account, is investigated. We show that the simplified avalanche model of Rosenbluth and Putvinskii (1997 Nucl. Fusion 37 1355) can give inaccurate results for the avalanche growth rate (either lower or higher) for many parameters, especially when the average runaway energy is modest, such as during the initial phase of the avalanche multiplication. The developments presented pave the way for improved modelling of runaway-electron dynamics during disruptions or other dynamic events.

  5. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Koji

    Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.

  6. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  7. Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Peter

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL and the delay spread (DS. It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62 for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS.

  8. Modelling of pulsed and steady-state DEMO scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baruzzo, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Fable, E.; Garzotti, L.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Kemp, R.; King, D. B.; Schneider, M.; Stankiewicz, R.; Stępniewski, W.; Vincenzi, P.; Ward, D.; Zagórski, R.

    2015-07-01

    Scenario modelling for the demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO) has been carried out using a variety of simulation codes. Two DEMO concepts have been analysed: a pulsed tokamak, characterized by rather conventional physics and technology assumptions (DEMO1) and a steady-state tokamak, with moderately advanced physics and technology assumptions (DEMO2). Sensitivity to impurity concentrations, radiation, and heat transport models has been investigated. For DEMO2, the impact of current driven non-inductively by neutral beams has been studied by full Monte Carlo simulations of the fast ion distribution. The results obtained are a part of a more extensive research and development (R&D) effort carried out in the EU in order to develop a viable option for a DEMO reactor, to be adopted after ITER for fusion energy research.

  9. Modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary model in braneworld scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila; Mohsaneen, Sidra

    2016-05-01

    We investigate the modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary regime in the brane-world framework in the presence of standard and tachyon scalar fields. We consider the intermediate inflationary scenario and construct the slow-roll parameters, e-folding numbers, spectral index, scalar and tensor power spectra, tensor to scalar ratio for both scalar field models. We develop the ns - N and r - N planes and concluded that ns˜eq96^{+0.5}_{-0.5} and r≤0.0016 for N˜eq60^{+5}_{-5} in both cases of scalar field models as well as for all values of m. These constraints are consistent with observational data such as WMAP7, WMAP9 and Planck data.

  10. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  11. Reference models for advanced e-services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendes, M.J.; Vissers, C.A.; Suomi, R.; Lankhorst, M.M.; Passos, C.; Slagter, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    Reference models (RMs) capitalize on the experience that key functions and relationships determine a system’s main design structure which has to be established before other design details can be settled. As such RMs can play an important role in designing complex (distributed) systems, in allocating

  12. A numerical reference model for themomechanical subduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinquis, Matthieu; Chemia, Zurab; Tosi, Nicola

    2010-01-01

    . Our reference model represents ocean-ocean convergence and describes initial geometries and lithological stratification for a three-layered subducting slab and overriding plate along with their respective flow laws and chemical composition. It also includes kinematic and thermal boundary conditions...

  13. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  14. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  15. Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John; Werkema, Dale

    2017-01-01

    Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

  16. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seitz, R.R. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Cook, J.R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided.

  17. Visual unified modeling language for the composition of scenarios in modeling and simulation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbert, Michael L.; Swayne, Daniel E.

    2006-05-01

    The Department of Defense uses modeling and simulation systems in many various roles, from research and training to modeling likely outcomes of command decisions. Simulation systems have been increasing in complexity with the increased capability of low-cost computer systems to support these DOD requirements. The demand for scenarios is also increasing, but the complexity of the simulation systems has caused a bottleneck in scenario development due to the limited number of individuals with knowledge of the arcane simulator languages in which these scenarios are written. This research combines the results of previous efforts from the Air Force Institute of Technology in visual modeling languages to create a language that unifies description of entities within a scenario with its behavior using a visual tool that was developed in the course of this research. The resulting language has a grammar and syntax that can be parsed from the visual representation of the scenario. The language is designed so that scenarios can be described in a generic manner, not tied to a specific simulation system, allowing the future development of modules to translate the generic scenario into simulation system specific scenarios.

  18. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  19. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  20. Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

  1. Behavioral Reference Model for Pervasive Healthcare Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahmasbi, Arezoo; Adabi, Sahar; Rezaee, Ali

    2016-12-01

    The emergence of mobile healthcare systems is an important outcome of application of pervasive computing concepts for medical care purposes. These systems provide the facilities and infrastructure required for automatic and ubiquitous sharing of medical information. Healthcare systems have a dynamic structure and configuration, therefore having an architecture is essential for future development of these systems. The need for increased response rate, problem limited storage, accelerated processing and etc. the tendency toward creating a new generation of healthcare system architecture highlight the need for further focus on cloud-based solutions for transfer data and data processing challenges. Integrity and reliability of healthcare systems are of critical importance, as even the slightest error may put the patients' lives in danger; therefore acquiring a behavioral model for these systems and developing the tools required to model their behaviors are of significant importance. The high-level designs may contain some flaws, therefor the system must be fully examined for different scenarios and conditions. This paper presents a software architecture for development of healthcare systems based on pervasive computing concepts, and then models the behavior of described system. A set of solutions are then proposed to improve the design's qualitative characteristics including, availability, interoperability and performance.

  2. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  3. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  4. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Ecomonic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (France); Willenbockel, Dirk [Univ. of Sussex, Brighton (United Kingdom); Ahammad, Helal [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Cai, Yongxia [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lotze-Campen, Hermann [Postdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald [International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Champaign, IL (United States); Sands, Ronald [Economic Research Service (ERS), Washington, DC (United States); Schmitz, Christoph [Postdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Austria); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationas (FAO), Roma (Italy); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center (Netherlands)

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  5. Personalized drug administration for cancer treatment using Model Reference Adaptive Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babaei, Naser; Salamci, Metin U

    2015-04-21

    A new Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) approach is proposed for the nonlinear regulation problem of cancer treatment via chemotherapy. We suggest an approach for determining an optimal anticancer drug delivery scenario for cancer patients without prior knowledge of nonlinear model structure and parameters by compounding State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) and MRAC which will lead to personalized drug administration. Several approaches have been proposed for eradicating cancerous cells in nonlinear tumor growth model. The main difficulty in these approaches is the requirement of nonlinear model parameters, which are unknown to physicians in reality. To cope with this shortage, we first determine the drug delivery scenario for a reference patient with known mathematical model and parameters via SDRE technique, and by using the proposed approach we adapt the drug administration scenario for another cancer patient despite unknown nonlinear model structure and model parameters. We propose an efficient approach to determine drug administration which will help physicians for prescribing a chemotherapy protocol for a cancer patient by regulating the drug delivery scenario of the reference patient. Stabilizing the tumor growth nonlinear model has been achieved via full state feedback techniques and yields a near optimal solution to cancer treatment problem. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for eradicating tumor lumps with different sizes in different patients.

  6. Progress towards a Venus reference cloud model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Colin; Ignatiev, Nikolay; Marcq, Emmanuel

    Venus is completely enveloped by clouds. The main cloud layers stretch from altitudes of 48 - 75 km, with additional tenuous hazes found at altitudes 30 - 100 km. Clouds play a crucial role in governing atmospheric circulation, chemistry and climate on all planets, but particularly so on Venus due to the optical thickness of the atmosphere. The European Space Agency’s Venus Express (VEx) satellite has carried out a wealth of observations of Venus clouds since its arrival at Venus in April 2006. Many VEx observations are relevant to cloud science - from imagers and spectrometers to solar, stellar and radio occultation - each covering different altitude ranges, spectral ranges and atmospheric constituents. We have formed an International Team at the International Space Science Institute to bring together scientists from each of the relevant Venus Express investigation teams as well as from previous missions, as well as those developing computational and analytical models of clouds and hazes. The aims of the project are (1) to create self-consistent reference cloud/haze models which capture not only a mean cloud structure but also its main modes of variability; and (2) to bring together modelers and observers, to reach an understanding of clouds and hazes on Venus which matches all observables and is physically consistent. Our approach is to first to assemble an averaged cloud profile for low latitudes, showing how cloud number abundances and other observables vary as a function of altitude, consistent with all available observations. In a second step, we will expand this work to produce a reference cloud profile which varies with latitude and local solar time, as well as optical thickness of the cloud. We will present our status in progressing towards this goal. We acknowledge the support of the International Space Science Institute of Berne, Switzerland, in hosting our Team’s meetings.

  7. Establishing a business process reference model for Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten; Hvolby, Hans-Henrik

    2012-01-01

    process enablement, collection of performance data and systematic reuse of existing community experience and knowledge. For these reasons reference models such as the SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference), DCOR (Design Chain Operations Reference) and ITIL (Information Technology Infrastructure Library...

  8. Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

    2017-08-09

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

  9. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  10. Description of selected global models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Grosskurt J; Ienburg AM; Rothman DS; Vuuren DP van; OECD; ICIS; MNV; ICIS; LAE

    2001-01-01

    This report provides a survey of past and present integrated models that have been used for the generation and analysis of global scenarios. It examines the usefulness of the models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development. It does so by evaluating the models in terms of inter

  11. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

    2013-01-01

    Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driv

  12. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  13. Fast tracking ICT infrastructure requirements and design, based on Enterprise Reference Architecture and matching Reference Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernus, Peter; Baltrusch, Rob; Vesterager, Johan

    2002-01-01

    The Globemen Consortium has developed the virtual enterprise reference architecture and methodology (VERAM), based on GERAM and developed reference models for virtual enterprise management and joint mission delivery. The planned virtual enterprise capability includes the areas of sales and market......The Globemen Consortium has developed the virtual enterprise reference architecture and methodology (VERAM), based on GERAM and developed reference models for virtual enterprise management and joint mission delivery. The planned virtual enterprise capability includes the areas of sales...

  14. Model Learning for Probabilistic Simulation on Rare Events and Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-06

    observed data only. This is a problem called covariate shift in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the underestimation of our...fall records causing the events/scenarios. This is called a covariate shift problem in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the...their causes and consequences. Their probabilities are also quantitatively provided based on the mathematically rigorous and probabilistic inference

  15. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  16. The International Reference Ionosphere: Model Update 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza, Dieter; Altadill, David; Reinisch, Bodo; Galkin, Ivan; Shubin, Valentin; Truhlik, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is recognized as the official standard for the ionosphere (COSPAR, URSI, ISO) and is widely used for a multitude of different applications as evidenced by the many papers in science and engineering journals that acknowledge the use of IRI (e.g., about 11% of all Radio Science papers each year). One of the shortcomings of the model has been the dependence of the F2 peak height modeling on the propagation factor M(3000)F2. With the 2016 version of IRI, two new models will be introduced for hmF2 that were developed directly based on hmF2 measurements by ionosondes [Altadill et al., 2013] and by COSMIC radio occultation [Shubin, 2015], respectively. In addition IRI-2016 will include an improved representation of the ionosphere during the very low solar activities that were reached during the last solar minimum in 2008/2009. This presentation will review these and other improvements that are being implemented with the 2016 version of the IRI model. We will also discuss recent IRI workshops and their findings and results. One of the most exciting new projects is the development of the Real-Time IRI [Galkin et al., 2012]. We will discuss the current status and plans for the future. Altadill, D., S. Magdaleno, J.M. Torta, E. Blanch (2013), Global empirical models of the density peak height and of the equivalent scale height for quiet conditions, Advances in Space Research 52, 1756-1769, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.11.018. Galkin, I.A., B.W. Reinisch, X. Huang, and D. Bilitza (2012), Assimilation of GIRO Data into a Real-Time IRI, Radio Science, 47, RS0L07, doi:10.1029/2011RS004952. Shubin V.N. (2015), Global median model of the F2-layer peak height based on ionospheric radio-occultation and ground-based Digisonde observations, Advances in Space Research 56, 916-928, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.05.029.

  17. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  18. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Davey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Currently, many cheaper "practice management software" (PMS are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods : First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009 guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst software using binary random effects (REs model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results : Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100-226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85. The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion : Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system.

  19. Broadband access network reference models: a different prospective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Mohamed S.

    1996-11-01

    The current view of the fiber-based broadband access network is that it could basically be modeled into two target networks represented by the following architectures, the fiber to the curb, building, home (FTTC/B/H) -- also termed switched digital video (SDV) -- architecture, and the hybrid fiber coax (HFC) architecture. Both architectures support on-demand digital services. One way to distinguish between these two architectures is based on the digital modulation scheme. The SDV/FTTC architecture utilizes baseband digital modulation both in the fiber distribution and the point-to- point drop. Whereas, the HFC architecture is pass-band and utilizes digitally modulated (as well as analog modulated) subcarriers both on the fiber and the coax for distribution to customers. From a network modeling point of view, the distinction between these two architectures is fuzzy. A hybrid between the above two architectures represents other architectural advantages especially bandwidth utilization in the upstream direction. This paper describes this hybrid architecture and provides an evaluation of the different access network configuration scenarios based on an expanded version of the DAVIC reference models.

  20. Virtual Reference Transcript Analysis: A Few Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joanne

    2003-01-01

    Describes the introduction of virtual, or digital, reference service at the University of New Brunswick libraries. Highlights include analyzing transcripts from LIVE (Library Information in a Virtual Environment); reference question types; ACRL (Association of College and Research Libraries) information literacy competency standards; and the Big 6…

  1. Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE; Chunyang; SHI; Peijun; CHEN; Jin; Li; Xiaobing; PAN; Ya

    2005-01-01

    Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern China in the next 20 years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario demands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern China suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China in the next 20 years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.

  2. An Ideological Analysis of Digital Reference Service Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilevko, Juris

    2001-01-01

    Looks at some of the new paradigms for reference service, in particular the ideological implications of the digital reference call-center model, demonstrates how they lead to a "deprofessionalization" of reference work, and provides examples of how extensive reading can help reference librarians provide better service and become an…

  3. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    section. On the other hand, lowest SOC stock values have been observed on sections 0-25 and 25-50 cm from Aquic Haploxeralf under wheat, cotton and other annual crops and vineyards, respectively. The lowest SOC values were determined in section 50-75 cm from Typic Ochraqualfs under olive groves. CarboSOIL predicted increases of SOC stocks in future climate scenarios in the upper soil section (0-25 cm) for areas under rotating wheat, cotton and other annual crops. In this case, SOC stocks increases are considerably larger in the areas above 400 masl. In the 25-50 cm soil section, SOC stocks are expected to decrease in the 2040 scenario and then increase in the following 2070 and 2100 scenarios, particularly in olive-cropped areas. Oppositely, SOC stocks from olive-cropped soils will decrease in the 50-75 soil section in the 2070 scenario. Key words: Carbon sequestration, Global change, Land evaluation, MicroLEIS DSS, Topography. References Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Ali, R.R., Anaya-Romero, M., De la Rosa, D. 2010. Evaluating soil contamination risks using MicroLEIS DSS in El-Fayoum province, Egypt. In: 2nd International Conference on Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering (ICBEE), 2-4 November, 2010. Cairo. Pp.: 1-5. DOI: 10.1109/ICBEE.2010.5651591. Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Ali, R.R., Anaya-Romero, M., Jordán, A., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Abdelmageed, T.A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D. 2012. Evaluating soil degradation under different scenarios of agricultural land management in Mediterranean región. Nature and Science 10, 103-116. De la Rosa, D., Mayol, F., Moreno, F., Cabrera, F., Díaz-Pereira, E., Antoine, J. 2002. A multilingual soil profile database (SDBm Plus) as an essential part of land resources information systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 17, 721-730. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(02)00031-2 Muñoz-Rojas, M., De la Rosa, D., Zavala, L.M., Jordán, A., Anaya-Romero, M. 2011. Changes in land cover and vegetation carbon stocks in Andalusia, Southern Spain (1956

  4. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  5. Systematic approach for the identification of process reference models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Der Merwe, A

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Process models are used in different application domains to capture knowledge on the process flow. Process reference models (PRM) are used to capture reusable process models, which should simplify the identification process of process models...

  6. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Scenarios and Models of Nitrogen Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Ye, M.

    2015-12-01

    Modeling nitrogen process in soil is a long-lasting challenge partly because of the uncertainties from parameters, models and scenarios. It may be difficult to identify a suitable model and its corresponding parameters.This study assesses the global sensitivity indices for parameters of multiple models and scenarios on nitrogen processes. The majority of existing nitrogen dynamics models consider nitrification and denitrification as a first-order decay process or a Michaelis-Menten model, while various reduction functions are used to reflect the impact of environmental soil conditions. To determine the model uncertainty, 9 alternative models were designed based on NP2D model in this study. These models have the similar descriptions of nitrogen process but are different in the cal reduction functions of soil water and temperature. A global sensitivity analysis of each models under various scenarios was evaluated. Results show that in our synthetic cases of nitrogen transport and transformation, the global sensitivity indices vary between each models and scenarios. Larger indices for parameters of nitrification are obtained than the ones of denitrification in 6 models, while an inverse relationship is revealed in the rest 3 models. Parameters of soil temperature reduction functions are more sensitive than those of soil water reduction functions. When the soil water and temperature increase separately or together, parameters of denitrification gain their sensitivity, but the indices for parameters of soil temperature reduction functions decrease simultaneously. Our results indicate that identifying important parameters may be biased if ignoring the model and scenario uncertainties. This problem can be resolved by using the global sensitivity indices for multiple models and multiple scenarios. The new indices is useful to determine the relative contributions from different models and scenarios.

  7. Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamon, Lara; Von Waldow, Harald; Macleod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2009-08-01

    We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE

  8. Modeling the hydrological significance of wetland restoration scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Martinez, Edwin; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Woznicki, Sean A; Love, Bradley J

    2014-01-15

    Wetlands provide multiple socio-economic benefits, among them mitigating flood through short- and long-term water storage functions and assisting with reduction of downstream flood peaks. However, their effectiveness in controlling floods is dictated by wetland size and distribution within a watershed. Due to the complexity of wetland hydrological processes at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study the impact of wetland restoration on streamflow rates and peaks in the Shiawassee River watershed of Michigan. Wetland restoration scenarios were developed based on combinations of wetland area (50, 100, 250, and 500 ha) and wetland depth (15, 30, 61, and 91 cm). Increasing wetland area, rather than depth, had a greater impact on long-term average daily streamflow. Wetland implementation resulted in negligible reductions in daily peak flow rates and frequency of peak flow events at the watershed outlet. In developing high impact areas for wetland restoration, similar locations were identified for reduction of subbasin and watershed outlet streamflow. However, the best combinations of area/depth differed depending on the goal of the restoration plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Reference models supporting enterprise networks and virtual enterprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tølle, Martin; Bernus, Peter

    2003-01-01

    This article analyses different types of reference models applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of Virtual Enterprises (VEs). Reference models are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE into a configuration task, and hence reducing ...... the time needed for VE creation. The reference models are analysed through a mapping onto the Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (VERA) based upon GERAM and created in the IMS GLOBEMEN project.......This article analyses different types of reference models applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of Virtual Enterprises (VEs). Reference models are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE into a configuration task, and hence reducing...

  10. The Use of Reference Models in Business Process Renovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Pajk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise resource planning (ERP systems are often used by companies to automate and enhance their busi- ness processes. The capabilities of ERP systems can be described by best-practice reference models. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the business process renovation approach with the use of reference models. Although the use of reference models brings many positive effects for business, they are still rarely used in Slovenian small and medium-sized compa- nies. The reasons for this may be found in the reference models themselves as well as in project implementation methodologies. In the article a reference model based on Microsoft Dynamics NAV is suggested. The reference model is designed using upgraded BPMN notation with additional business objects, which help to describe the models in more detail.

  11. Basin-scale Modeling of Geological Carbon Sequestration: Model Complexity, Injection Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.; Bachu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Geological carbon sequestration can significantly contribute to climate-change mitigation only if it is deployed at a very large scale. This means that injection scenarios must occur, and be analyzed, at the basin scale. Various mathematical models of different complexity may be used to assess the fate of injected CO2 and/or resident brine. These models span the range from multi-dimensional, multi-phase numerical simulators to simple single-phase analytical solutions. In this study, we consider a range of models, all based on vertically-integrated governing equations, to predict the basin-scale pressure response to specific injection scenarios. The Canadian section of the Basal Aquifer is used as a test site to compare the different modeling approaches. The model domain covers an area of approximately 811,000 km2, and the total injection rate is 63 Mt/yr, corresponding to 9 locations where large point sources have been identified. Predicted areas of critical pressure exceedance are used as a comparison metric among the different modeling approaches. Comparison of the results shows that single-phase numerical models may be good enough to predict the pressure response over a large aquifer; however, a simple superposition of semi-analytical or analytical solutions is not sufficiently accurate because spatial variability of formation properties plays an important role in the problem, and these variations are not captured properly with simple superposition. We consider two different injection scenarios: injection at the source locations and injection at locations with more suitable aquifer properties. Results indicate that in formations with significant spatial variability of properties, strong variations in injectivity among the different source locations can be expected, leading to the need to transport the captured CO2 to suitable injection locations, thereby necessitating development of a pipeline network. We also consider the sensitivity of porosity and

  12. SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmintier, Bryan: Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2017-01-26

    This presentation provides a Smart-DS project overview and status update for the ARPA-e GRID DATA program meeting 2017, including distribution systems, models, and scenarios, as well as opportunities for GRID DATA collaborations.

  13. Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas;

    2008-01-01

    Participatory processes in scenario development have received increasing attention throughout the last years. Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative expert information (i.e. modelling) offers unique opportunities to mix good data, scientific rigour, imagination and expertise from...

  14. Enhanced UWB Radio Channel Model for Short-Range Communication Scenarios Including User Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Nguyen, Tuan Hung; Eggers, Patrick Claus F.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a SISO UWB radio channel model for short-range radio link scenarios between a fixed device and a dynamic user hand-held device. The channel model is derived based on novel experimental UWB radio propagation investigations carried out in typical indoor PAN scenarios...... including realistic device and user terminal antenna configurations. The radio channel measurements have been performed in the lower UWB frequency band of 3GHz to 5GHz with a 2x4 MIMO antenna configuration. Several environments, user scenarios and two types of user terminals have been used. The developed...

  15. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  16. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  17. Merits of a Scenario Approach in Dredge Plume Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Claus; Chu, Amy Ling Chu; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    Dredge plume modelling is a key tool for quantification of potential impacts to inform the EIA process. There are, however, significant uncertainties associated with the modelling at the EIA stage when both dredging methodology and schedule are likely to be a guess at best as the dredging contrac...

  18. Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the associ

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    the overall energy system model for analyzing three subjects which are important but uncertain areas in the future. The first model is a consequential LCA analysis for biomass potential. The second model targets transport demand due to uncertain technology development in the future transport sector. The third...... model addresses grid stability with a high time resolution. As a result of the consequential LCA, the potential of biomass is less than that of IDA2050. The reduced biomass potential in turn requires larger non-biomass RES capacity, which necessitates a larger capacity of flexible means as a chain...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

  20. Reference models supporting enterprise networks and virtual enterprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tølle, Martin; Bernus, Peter

    2003-01-01

    This article analyses different types of reference models applicable to support the set up and (re)configuration of Virtual Enterprises (VEs). Reference models are models capturing concepts common to VEs aiming to convert the task of setting up of VE into a configuration task, and hence reducing...

  1. On the Impact of Building Attenuation Models in VANET Simulations of Urban Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Urquiza-Aguiar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Buildings are important elements of cities for VANETs, since these obstacles may attenuate communications between vehicles. Consequently, the impact of buildings has to be considered as part of the attenuation model in VANET simulations of urban scenarios. However, the more elaborated the model, the more information needs to be processed during the simulation, which implies longer processing times. This complexity in simulations is not always worth it, because simplified channel models occasionally offer very accurate results. We compare three approaches to model the impact of buildings in the channel model of simulated VANETs in two urban scenarios. The simulation results for our evaluation scenarios of a traffic-efficiency application indicate that modeling the influence of buildings in urban areas as the total absence of communication between vehicles gives similar results to modeling such influence in a more realistic fashion and could be considered a conservative bound in the performance metrics.

  2. Blast Loading Experiments of Surrogate Models for Tbi Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, M. D.; Son, S. F.

    2009-12-01

    This study aims to characterize the interaction of explosive blast waves through simulated anatomical models. We have developed physical models and a systematic approach for testing traumatic brain injury (TBI) mechanisms and occurrences. A simplified series of models consisting of spherical PMMA shells housing synthetic gelatins as brain simulants have been utilized. A series of experiments was conducted to compare the sensitivity of the system response to mechanical properties of the simulants under high strain-rate explosive blasts. Small explosive charges were directed at the models to produce a realistic blast wave in a scaled laboratory test cell setting. Blast profiles were measured and analyzed to compare system response severity. High-speed shadowgraph imaging captured blast wave interaction with the head model while particle tracking captured internal response for displacement and strain correlation. The results suggest amplification of shock waves inside the head near material interfaces due to impedance mismatches. In addition, significant relative displacement was observed between the interacting materials suggesting large strain values of nearly 5%. Further quantitative results were obtained through shadowgraph imaging of the blasts confirming a separation of time scales between blast interaction and bulk movement. These results lead to the conclusion that primary blast effects could cause TBI occurrences.

  3. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    locales in southern California. Importantly, section 6 provides a comparison of the effect of including horizontal displacements at the source described in section 1 and differences in bottom friction on wave heights and inundation in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Modeling described in section 7 (Lynett and Son) uses a higher order physical model to determine variations of currents during the tsunami and complex flow structures such as jets and eddies. Section 7 also uses sediment transport models to estimate scour and deposition of sediment in ports and harbors—a significant effect that was observed in southern California following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Together, all of the sections in this report form the basis for damage, impact, and emergency preparedness aspects of the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Three sections of this report independently calculate wave height and inundation results using the source specified by Kirby and others (2013). Refer to figure 29 in section 3, figure 52 in section 4, and figure 62 in section 6. All of these results are relative to a mean high water (MHW) vertical datum. Slight differences in the results are observed in East Basin of the Port of Los Angeles, Alamitos Bay, and the Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge. However, given that these three modeling efforts involved different implementations of the source, different numerical wave propagation and runup models, and slight differences in the digital elevation models (DEMs), the similarity among the results is remarkable.

  4. Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

    2010-12-01

    The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

  5. Intelligent negotiation model for ubiquitous group decision scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Joo CARNEIRO; Diogo MARTINHO; Goreti MARREIROS; Paulo NOVAIS

    2016-01-01

    Supporting group decision-making in ubiquitous contexts is a complex task that must deal with a large amount of factors to succeed. Here we propose an approach for an intelligent negotiation model to support the group decision-making process specifically designed for ubiquitous contexts. Our approach can be used by researchers that intend to include arguments, complex algorithms, and agents’ modeling in a negotiation model. It uses a social networking logic due to the type of communication employed by the agents and it intends to support the ubiquitous group decision-making process in a similar way to the real process, which simultaneously preserves the amount and quality of intelligence generated in face-to-face meetings. We propose a new look into this problem by considering and defining strategies to deal with important points such as the type of attributes in the multi- criterion problems, agents’ reasoning, and intelligent dialogues.

  6. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  7. Source apportionment of airborne particulates through receptor modeling: Indian scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Tirthankar; Murari, Vishnu; Kumar, Manish; Raju, M. P.

    2015-10-01

    Airborne particulate chemistry mostly governed by associated sources and apportionment of specific sources is extremely essential to delineate explicit control strategies. The present submission initially deals with the publications (1980s-2010s) of Indian origin which report regional heterogeneities of particulate concentrations with reference to associated species. Such meta-analyses clearly indicate the presence of reservoir of both primary and secondary aerosols in different geographical regions. Further, identification of specific signatory molecules for individual source category was also evaluated in terms of their scientific merit and repeatability. Source signatures mostly resemble international profile while, in selected cases lack appropriateness. In India, source apportionment (SA) of airborne particulates was initiated way back in 1985 through factor analysis, however, principal component analysis (PCA) shares a major proportion of applications (34%) followed by enrichment factor (EF, 27%), chemical mass balance (CMB, 15%) and positive matrix factorization (PMF, 9%). Mainstream SA analyses identify earth crust and road dust resuspensions (traced by Al, Ca, Fe, Na and Mg) as a principal source (6-73%) followed by vehicular emissions (traced by Fe, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Ba and Zn; 5-65%), industrial emissions (traced by Co, Cr, Zn, V, Ni, Mn, Cd; 0-60%), fuel combustion (traced by K, NH4+, SO4-, As, Te, S, Mn; 4-42%), marine aerosols (traced by Na, Mg, K; 0-15%) and biomass/refuse burning (traced by Cd, V, K, Cr, As, TC, Na, K, NH4+, NO3-, OC; 1-42%). In most of the cases, temporal variations of individual source contribution for a specific geographic region exhibit radical heterogeneity possibly due to unscientific orientation of individual tracers for specific source and well exaggerated by methodological weakness, inappropriate sample size, implications of secondary aerosols and inadequate emission inventories. Conclusively, a number of challenging

  8. Fuel dispersal modeling for aircraft-runway impact scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1995-11-01

    A fuel dispersal model for C-141 transport accidents was developed for the Defense Nuclear Agency`s Fuel Fire Technology Base Program to support Weapon System Safety Assessments. The spectrum of accidents resulting from aircraft impact on a runway was divided into three fuel dispersal regimes: low, intermediate, and high-velocity impact. Sufficient data existed in the accident, crash test, and fuel-filled bomb literature to support development of a qualitative framework for dispersal models, but not quantitative models for all regimes. Therefore, a test series at intermediate scale was conducted to generate data on which to base the model for the high-velocity regime. Tests were conducted over an impact velocity range from 12 m/s to 91 m/s and angles of impact from 22.5{degrees} to 67.5{degrees}. Dependent variables were area covered by dispersed fuel, amount of mass in that area, and location of the area relative to the impact line. Test results showed that no liquid pooling occurred for impact velocities greater than 61 m/s, independent of the angle of impact. Some pooling did occur at lower velocities, but in no test was the liquid-layer thickness greater than 5.25 mm.

  9. Blast Loading Experiments of Developed Surrogate Models for TBI Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, Matthew; Son, Steven

    2009-06-01

    This study aims to characterize the interaction of explosive blast waves through simulated anatomical systems. We have developed physical models and a systematic approach for testing traumatic brain injury (TBI) mechanisms and occurrences. A simplified series of models consisting of spherical PMMA shells followed by SLA prototyped skulls housing synthetic gelatins as brain simulants have been utilized. A series of experiments was conducted with the simple geometries to compare the sensitivity of the system response to mechanical properties of the simulants under high strain-rate explosive blasts. Small explosive charges were directed at the models to produce a realistic blast wave in a scaled laboratory setting. Blast profiles were measured and analyzed to compare system response severity. High-speed shadowgraph imaging captured blast wave interaction with the head model while particle tracking captured internal response for displacement and strain correlation. The results suggest amplification of shock waves inside the head due to impedance mismatches. Results from the strain correlations added to the theory of internal shearing between tissues.

  10. Pesticide Leaching Models in a Brazilian Agricultural Field Scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scorza, R.P.; Oliveira Rigitano, de R.L.; Boesten, J.J.T.I.

    2011-01-01

    The use of Pesticide Leaching Models (PLM) for risk assessment may be an efficient and attractive way of assessing solutions to some agricultural and environmental problems. Many countries of the European Union and the USA have been using PLM for risk assessment already for a few decades. This chapt

  11. Business model scenarios for seamless content distribution and delivery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wehn de Montalvo, U.W.C.; Ballon, P.J.P.; Sokol, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of feasible business models for seamless multimedia content distribution and delivery over mobile, wireless and fixed networks. An open, interlayer approach to content delivery networks sets the scene for a great deal of flexibility in the value network for content dis

  12. Bornholm as a Model for 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna; Heussen, Kai

    2009-01-01

    An energy system planning tool, "EnergyPLAN" is used for the analysis of energy scenarios to study the generation and consumption of energy on the island, Bornholm. First the model is verified on the basis of the energy mix on Bornholm today, then the Bornholm energy system is studied...... as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a very high share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are crosschecked with dynamic frequency simulations. The goal of this project is to improve the energy system tool to study...... future energy scenarios....

  13. Bornholm as a Model for 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillay, Jayakrishnan R. Pillai; Heussen, Kai

    2009-01-01

    An energy system planning tool, “EnergyPLAN” is used for the analysis of energy scenarios to study the generation and consumption of energy on the island, Bornholm. First the model is verified on the basis of the energy mix on Bornholm today, where the Bornholm energy system is studied both...... as a connected and as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios are analysed to develop a feasible technology mix for a very high share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are crosschecked with dynamic frequency simulations. The goal of this project is to improve the energy...... system tool to study future energy scenarios....

  14. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  15. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  16. Model-based Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Remediation Measures on Metal Leaching from Soils Contaminated by Historic Smelter Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; van der Grift, Bas; Seuntjens, Piet

    2014-05-01

    A spatially distributed model for leaching of Cd from the unsaturated zone was developed for the Belgian-Dutch transnational Kempen region. The model uses as input land-use maps, atmospheric deposition data, and soil data and is part of a larger regional model that simulates transport of Cd in soil, groundwater, and surface water. A new method for deriving deposition from multiple sites was validated using soil data in different wind directions. Leaching was calculated for the period 1890 to 2010 using a reconstruction of metal loads in the region. The model was able to reproduce spatial patterns of concentrations in soil and groundwater and predicted the concentration in shallow groundwater adequately well for the purpose of evaluating management options. For 42% of the data points, measurements and calculations were within the same concentration class. The model was used for forecasting under a reference scenario, an autonomous development scenario including climate change, and a scenario with implementation of remediation measures. The impact of autonomous development (under the most extreme scenario of climatic change) amounted to an increase of 10% in cumulative Cd flux after 100 yr as compared with the reference scenario. The impact of remediation measures was mainly local and is less pronounced (i.e., only 3% change in cumulative flux at the regional scale). The integrated model served as a tool to assist in developing management strategies and prioritization of remediation of the wide-spread heavy metal contamination in the region.

  17. Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N.; Hand, M.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.

    2008-06-01

    In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used to support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis, the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performance improvements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.

  18. A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...

  19. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does risk. Urban expansion and associated land use dynamics are recognised as one of the main causes of increased flood risk in Europe. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment o...

  20. A numerical reference model for themomechanical subduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinquis, Matthieu; Chemia, Zurab; Tosi, Nicola;

    2010-01-01

    Building an advanced numerical model of subduction requires choosing values for various geometrical parameters and material properties, among others, the initial lithosphere thicknesses, representative lithological types and their mechanical and thermal properties, rheologies, initial temperature...

  1. Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léo eBenichou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  2. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across...

  3. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  4. Inflationary scenarios in Starobinsky model with higher order corrections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artymowski, Michał [Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University,Łojasiewicza 11, 30-348 Kraków (Poland); Lalak, Zygmunt [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw,ul. Pasteura 5, 02-093 Warsaw (Poland); Lewicki, Marek [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw,ul. Pasteura 5, 02-093 Warsaw (Poland); Michigan Center for Theoretical Physics, University of Michigan,450 Church Street, Ann Arbor MI 48109 (United States)

    2015-06-17

    We consider the Starobinsky inflation with a set of higher order corrections parametrised by two real coefficients λ{sub 1} ,λ{sub 2}. In the Einstein frame we have found a potential with the Starobinsky plateau, steep slope and possibly with an additional minimum, local maximum or a saddle point. We have identified three types of inflationary behaviour that may be generated in this model: i) inflation on the plateau, ii) at the local maximum (topological inflation), iii) at the saddle point. We have found limits on parameters λ{sub i} and initial conditions at the Planck scale which enable successful inflation and disable eternal inflation at the plateau. We have checked that the local minimum away from the GR vacuum is stable and that the field cannot leave it neither via quantum tunnelling nor via thermal corrections.

  5. Pan-European modelling of riverine nutrient concentrations - spatial patterns, source detection, trend analyses, scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartosova, Alena; Arheimer, Berit; Capell, Rene; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömqvist, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Nutrient transport models are important tools for large scale assessments of macro-nutrient fluxes (nitrogen, phosphorus) and thus can serve as support tool for environmental assessment and management. Results from model applications over large areas, i.e. from major river basin to continental scales can fill a gap where monitoring data is not available. Here, we present results from the pan-European rainfall-runoff and nutrient transfer model E-HYPE, which is based on open data sources. We investigate the ability of the E-HYPE model to replicate the spatial and temporal variations found in observed time-series of riverine N and P concentrations, and illustrate the model usefulness for nutrient source detection, trend analyses, and scenario modelling. The results show spatial patterns in N concentration in rivers across Europe which can be used to further our understanding of nutrient issues across the European continent. E-HYPE results show hot spots with highest concentrations of total nitrogen in Western Europe along the North Sea coast. Source apportionment was performed to rank sources of nutrient inflow from land to sea along the European coast. An integrated dynamic model as E-HYPE also allows us to investigate impacts of climate change and measure programs, which was illustrated in a couple of scenarios for the Baltic Sea. Comparing model results with observations shows large uncertainty in many of the data sets and the assumptions used in the model set-up, e.g. point source release estimates. However, evaluation of model performance at a number of measurement sites in Europe shows that mean N concentration levels are generally well simulated. P levels are less well predicted which is expected as the variability of P concentrations in both time and space is higher. Comparing model performance with model set-ups using local data for the Weaver River (UK) did not result in systematically better model performance which highlights the complexity of model

  6. ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model - a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed. (author)

  7. A blood circulation model for reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Health Sciences Research Div.; Williams, L.R. [Indiana Univ., South Bend, IN (United States). Div. of Liberal Arts and Sciences

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersal of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravascular injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is to improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The total blood volume is partitioned into the blood contents of 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chambers, left heart chambers, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the systemic tissues (aorta and large arteries), and venous return from the systemic tissues (large veins). As a compromise between physical reality and computational simplicity, the circulation of blood is viewed as a system of first-order transfers between blood pools, with the delay time depending on the mean transit time across the pool. The model allows consideration of incomplete, tissue-dependent extraction of material during passage through the circulation and return of material from tissues to plasma.

  8. Moving object detection using keypoints reference model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Zaki Wan Mimi Diyana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article presents a new method for background subtraction (BGS and object detection for a real-time video application using a combination of frame differencing and a scale-invariant feature detector. This method takes the benefits of background modelling and the invariant feature detector to improve the accuracy in various environments. The proposed method consists of three main modules, namely, modelling, matching and subtraction modules. The comparison study of the proposed method with a popular Gaussian mixture model proved that the improvement in correct classification can be increased up to 98% with a reduction of false negative and true positive rates. Beside that the proposed method has shown great potential to overcome the drawback of the traditional BGS in handling challenges like shadow effect and lighting fluctuation.

  9. Light charged Higgs boson scenario in 3-Higgs doublet models

    CERN Document Server

    Akeroyd, A G; Yagyu, Kei; Yildirim, Emine

    2016-01-01

    The constraints from the measurements of the $B\\to X_s\\gamma$ decay rate on the parameter space of 3-Higgs Doublet Models (3HDMs), where all the doublets have non-zero vacuum expectation values, are studied at the next-to-leading order in QCD. In order to naturally avoid the presence of flavour changing neutral currents at the tree level, we impose two softly-broken discrete $Z_2$ symmetries. This gives rise to five independent types of 3HDMs that differ in their Yukawa couplings. We show that in all these 3HDMs (including the case of type-II-like Yukawa interactions) both masses of the two charged Higgs bosons $m_{H_1^\\pm}$ and $m_{H_2^\\pm}$ can be smaller than the top mass $m_t$ while complying with the constraints from $B\\to X_s\\gamma$. As an interesting phenomenological consequence, the branching ratios of the charged Higgs bosons decay into the $cb$ final states can be as large as $80\\%$ when their masses are taken to be below $m_t$ in two of the five 3HDMs (named as Type-Y and Type-Z). This light charge...

  10. Fast tracking ICT infrastructure requirements and design, based on Enterprise Reference Architecture and matching Reference Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernus, Peter; Baltrusch, Rob; Vesterager, Johan;

    2002-01-01

    The Globemen Consortium has developed the virtual enterprise reference architecture and methodology (VERAM), based on GERAM and developed reference models for virtual enterprise management and joint mission delivery. The planned virtual enterprise capability includes the areas of sales and market......The Globemen Consortium has developed the virtual enterprise reference architecture and methodology (VERAM), based on GERAM and developed reference models for virtual enterprise management and joint mission delivery. The planned virtual enterprise capability includes the areas of sales...... and marketing, global engineering, and customer relationship management. The reference models are the basis for the development of ICT infrastructure requirements. These in turn can be used for ICT infrastructure specification (sometimes referred to as 'ICT architecture').Part of the ICT architecture...... is industry-wide, part of it is industry-specific and a part is specific to the domains of the joint activity that characterises the given Virtual Enterprise Network at hand. The article advocates a step by step approach to building virtual enterprise capability....

  11. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Geary

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  12. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geary, Matthew; Fielding, Alan H; McGowan, Philip J K; Marsden, Stuart J

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  13. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Verkehrsemissionsmodellierung. Modellvergleich und Alternative Szenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER); Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany)

    2013-06-15

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [German] Die Modellierung des Referenzszenarios und der verschiedenen Minderungsszenarien in PAREST erfolgte auf Grundlage des Zentralen System Emissionen (ZSE) (ZSE, 2007). Emissionen aus dem Strassenverkehr wurden mit Hilfe des Verkehrsemissionsmodells TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) berechnet und in das ZSE eingespeist. Dabei wurde die Version TREMOD 4.17 verwendet. Die daraus resultierenden Emissionsmengen wurden im PAREST-Referenzszenario um die emissionsmindernde Wirkung der zukuenftigen Implementierung der Abgasnormen Euro 5 und 6 fuer Pkw und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge sowie Euro VI fuer schwere Nutzfahrzeuge in Kombination einer Erweiterung der Lkw-Maut ergaenzt. Die Berechnung der Emissionen des Referenzszenarios wurde auf Grundlage des Inlandsprinzips sowie des Energiebilanzprinzips durchgefuehrt. Die auf dieser Grundlage berechneten Emissionen fuer das Basisjahr 2005 und fuer die Referenzjahre 2010, 2015 und 2020 unterscheiden sich teilweise erheblich von den mit Hilfe des Modells TREMOVE (dem von der EU Kommission verwendeten Modell fuer mobile Quellen) berechneten Emissionen.

  14. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of

  15. A reference model for model-based design of critical infrastructure protection systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Young Don; Park, Cheol Young; Lee, Jae-Chon

    2015-05-01

    Today's war field environment is getting versatile as the activities of unconventional wars such as terrorist attacks and cyber-attacks have noticeably increased lately. The damage caused by such unconventional wars has also turned out to be serious particularly if targets are critical infrastructures that are constructed in support of banking and finance, transportation, power, information and communication, government, and so on. The critical infrastructures are usually interconnected to each other and thus are very vulnerable to attack. As such, to ensure the security of critical infrastructures is very important and thus the concept of critical infrastructure protection (CIP) has come. The program to realize the CIP at national level becomes the form of statute in each country. On the other hand, it is also needed to protect each individual critical infrastructure. The objective of this paper is to study on an effort to do so, which can be called the CIP system (CIPS). There could be a variety of ways to design CIPS's. Instead of considering the design of each individual CIPS, a reference model-based approach is taken in this paper. The reference model represents the design of all the CIPS's that have many design elements in common. In addition, the development of the reference model is also carried out using a variety of model diagrams. The modeling language used therein is the systems modeling language (SysML), which was developed and is managed by Object Management Group (OMG) and a de facto standard. Using SysML, the structure and operational concept of the reference model are designed to fulfil the goal of CIPS's, resulting in the block definition and activity diagrams. As a case study, the operational scenario of the nuclear power plant while being attacked by terrorists is studied using the reference model. The effectiveness of the results is also analyzed using multiple analysis models. It is thus expected that the approach taken here has some merits

  16. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    them to implement soil moisture and evaporation data for the near-future in the region Sierre-Montana. REFERENCES Niklaus M. 2012. An Object-oriented Approach for Mapping Current Land Use/Land Cover in the Study Area Crans-Montana-Sierre, Valais. MSc, Geography Institute, University of Bern Dolman A.J., Verhagen A. & Rovers C.A. 2003. Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Dordrecht. Schneider F. & Rist S. 2013. Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustainability Science, in press. Georges D. & Thuiller W. 2012. An example of species distribution modelling with biomod2. biomod2 version : 2.0.17

  17. Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Ghandhari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The rapid population growth in Iran and the corresponding increases in water demands, including drinking water, industry, agriculture and urban development and existing constraints necessitate optimal scheduling necessity in use of this crucial source. Furthermore, the phenomenon of climate change as a major challenge for humanity can be considered in future periods. Climate change is caused by human activity have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, referred to as "global warming". Climate change indicates an unusual change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate consequences of the different parts of planet Earth. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. A Warmer climate exacerbates the hydrologic cycle, altering precipitation, magnitude and timing of runoff. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on water consumption and demand in Bar river basin of Neighbor. Climate change affects precipitation and temperature patterns and hence, may alter on water requirements and demand at three sectors; agriculture, industry and urban water. Materials and Methods: At present, Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. AOGCMs models represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. These models are based on physical laws that are provided by mathematical relations. AOGCMs models used for climate studies and climate forecast are run at coarse spatial resolution and are unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result AOGCMs output cannot be used for local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling methods were developed to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at

  18. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  19. Related work on reference modeling for collaborative networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Afsarmanesh, H.; Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Afsarmanesh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Several international research and development initiatives have led to development of models for organizations and organization interactions. These models and their approaches constitute a background for development of reference models for collaborative networks. A brief survey of work on modeling t

  20. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  1. Development of Depletion Code Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Propagation in Scenario Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivtchik, Guillaume; Coquelet-Pascal, Christine; Blaise, Patrick; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Freynet, David

    2014-06-01

    The result of transition scenario studies, which enable the comparison of different options of the reactor fleet evolution and management of the future fuel cycle materials, allow to perform technical and economic feasibility studies. The COSI code is developed by CEA and used to perform scenario calculations. It allows to model any fuel type, reactor fleet, fuel facility, and permits the tracking of U, Pu, minor actinides and fission products nuclides on a large time scale. COSI is coupled with the CESAR code which performs the depletion calculations based on one-group cross-section libraries and nuclear data. Different types of uncertainties have an impact on scenario studies: nuclear data and scenario assumptions. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their impact on the major scenario results. The methodology adopted to propagate these uncertainties throughout the scenario calculations is a stochastic approach. Considering the amount of inputs to be sampled in order to perform a stochastic calculation of the propagated uncertainty, it appears necessary to reduce the calculation time. Given that evolution calculations represent approximately 95% of the total scenario simulation time, an optimization can be done, with the development and implementation of a surrogate models library of CESAR in COSI. The input parameters of CESAR are sampled with URANIE, the CEA uncertainty platform, and for every sample, the isotopic composition after evolution evaluated with CESAR is stored. Then statistical analysis of the input and output tables allow to model the behavior of CESAR on each CESAR library, i.e. building a surrogate model. Several quality tests are performed on each surrogate model to insure the prediction power is satisfying. Afterward, a new routine implemented in COSI reads these surrogate models and using them in replacement of CESAR calculations. A preliminary study of the calculation time gain shows that the use of surrogate models allows stochastic

  2. Reference analysis of the signal + background model in counting experiments II. Approximate reference prior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadei, D.

    2014-10-01

    The objective Bayesian treatment of a model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as ``signal'' and ``background'' and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered. It is shown that the reference prior for the parameter of interest (the signal intensity) can be well approximated by the widely (ab)used flat prior only when the expected background is very high. On the other hand, a very simple approximation (the limiting form of the reference prior for perfect prior background knowledge) can be safely used over a large portion of the background parameters space. The resulting approximate reference posterior is a Gamma density whose parameters are related to the observed counts. This limiting form is simpler than the result obtained with a flat prior, with the additional advantage of representing a much closer approximation to the reference posterior in all cases. Hence such limiting prior should be considered a better default or conventional prior than the uniform prior. On the computing side, it is shown that a 2-parameter fitting function is able to reproduce extremely well the reference prior for any background prior. Thus, it can be useful in applications requiring the evaluation of the reference prior for a very large number of times.

  3. Comparison of TS and ANN Models with the Results of Emission Scenarios in Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Babaei Hessar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Precipitation is one of the most important and sensitive parameters of the tropical climate that influence the catchments hydrological regime. The prediction of rainfall is vital for strategic planning and water resources management. Despite its importance, statistical rainfall forecasting, especially for long-term, has been proven to be a great challenge due to the dynamic nature of climate phenomena and random fluctuations involved in the process. Various methods, such as time series and artificial neural network models, have been proposed to predict the level of rainfall. But there is not enough attention to global warming and climate change issues. The main aim of this study is to investigate the conformity of artificial neural network and time series models with climate scenarios. Materials and Methods: For this study, 50 years of daily rainfall data (1961 to 2010 of the synoptic station of Urmia, Tabriz and Khoy was investigated. Data was obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. In the present study, the results of two Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Time Seri (TS methods were compared with the result of the Emission Scenarios (A2 & B1. HadCM3 model in LARS-WG software was used to generate rainfall for the next 18 years (2011-2029. The results of models were compared with climate scenarios over the next 18 years in the three synoptic stations located in the basin of the Lake Urmia. At the first stage, the best model of time series method was selected. The precipitation was estimated for the next 18 years using these models. For the same period, precipitation was forecast using artificial neural networks. Finally, the results of two models were compared with data generated under two scenarios (B1 and A2 in LARS-WG. Results and Discussion: Different order of AR, MA and ARMA was examined to select the best model of TS The results show that AR(1 was suitable for Tabriz and Khoy stations .In the Urmia station MA(1 was

  4. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Daniel, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

  5. Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

    2017-09-01

    The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

  6. Self-consistent modeling of CFETR baseline scenarios for steady-state operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiale; Jian, Xiang; Chan, Vincent S.; Li, Zeyu; Deng, Zhao; Li, Guoqiang; Guo, Wenfeng; Shi, Nan; Chen, Xi; CFETR Physics Team

    2017-07-01

    Integrated modeling for core plasma is performed to increase confidence in the proposed baseline scenario in the 0D analysis for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The steady-state scenarios are obtained through the consistent iterative calculation of equilibrium, transport, auxiliary heating and current drives (H&CD). Three combinations of H&CD schemes (NB + EC, NB + EC + LH, and EC + LH) are used to sustain the scenarios with q min > 2 and fusion power of ˜70-150 MW. The predicted power is within the target range for CFETR Phase I, although the confinement based on physics models is lower than that assumed in 0D analysis. Ideal MHD stability analysis shows that the scenarios are stable against n = 1-10 ideal modes, where n is the toroidal mode number. Optimization of RF current drive for the RF-only scenario is also presented. The simulation workflow for core plasma in this work provides a solid basis for a more extensive research and development effort for the physics design of CFETR.

  7. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  8. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Wahid

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  9. A Reference Model for Mobile Social Software for Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jong, Tim; Specht, Marcus; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    De Jong, T., Specht, M., & Koper, R. (2008). A reference model for mobile social software for learning. International Journal of Continuing Engineering Education and Life-Long Learning, 18(1), 118-138.

  10. Reference models for forming organisational or collaborative pedagogical best practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lee, Chien-Sing; Koper, Rob; Kommers, Piet; Hedberg, John

    2008-01-01

    Lee, Chien-Sing, Koper, R., Kommers, P., & Hedberg, John (Eds.) (2008). Reference models for forming organisational or collaborative pedagogical best practices [special issue]. International Journal of Continuing Engineering Education and Life-Long Learning, 18(1).

  11. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  12. Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

  13. Establishing a Business Process Reference Model for Universities

    KAUST Repository

    Svensson, Carsten

    2012-09-01

    Modern universities are by any standard complex organizations that, from an IT perspective, present a number of unique challenges. This paper will propose establishing a business process reference framework. The benefit to the users would be a better understanding of the system landscape, business process enablement, collection of performance data and systematic reuse of existing community experience and knowledge. For these reasons reference models such as the SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference), DCOR (Design Chain Operations Reference) and ITIL (Information Technology Infrastructure Library) have gained popularity among organizations in both the private and public sectors. We speculate that this success can be replicated in a university setting. Furthermore the paper will outline how the research group suggests moving ahead with the research which will lead to a reference model.

  14. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  15. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  16. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.

  17. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Mark Tompkins

    Full Text Available A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.

  18. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  19. Modeling and validation of directional reflectance for heterogeneous agro-forestry scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelu, Z.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.; Huete, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape heterogeneity is a common natural phenomenon but is seldom considered in current radiative transfer models for predicting the surface reflectance. This paper developed an explicit analytical Radiative Transfer model for heterogeneous Agro-Forestry scenarios (RTAF) by dividing the scenario into non-boundary regions and boundary regions. The scattering contribution of the non-boundary regions that are treated as homogeneous canopies can be estimated from the SAILH model, whereas that of the boundary regions with lengths, widths, canopy heights, and orientations of the field patches, is calculated based on the bidirectional gap probability by considering the interactions and mutual shadowing effects among different patches. The hot spot factor is extended for heterogeneous scenarios, the Hapke model for soil anisotropy is incorporated, and the contributions of the direct and diffuse radiation are separately calculated. The multi-angular airborne observations and the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model simulations were used for validating and evaluating the RTAF model over an agro-forestry scenario in Heihe River Basin, China. It indicates that the RTAF model can accurately simulate the hemispherical-directional reflectance factors (HDRFs) of the heterogeneous agro-forestry scenario, with an RMSE of 0.0016 and 0.0179 in the red and near-infrared (NIR) bands, respectively. The RTAF model was compared with two widely used models, the dominant cover type (DCT) model and the spectral linear mixture (SLM) model, which either neglected the interactions and mutual shadowing effects between the shelterbets and crops, or did not account for the contribution of the shelterbets. Results suggest that the boundary effect can significantly influence the angular distribution of the HDRFs, and consequently enlarged the HDRF variations between the backward and forward directions in the principle plane. The RTAF model reduced the maximum relative error from 25

  20. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  1. Measuring the Compliance of Processes with Reference Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerke, Kerstin; Cardoso, Jorge; Claus, Alexander

    Reference models provide a set of generally accepted best practices to create efficient processes to be deployed inside organizations. However, a central challenge is to determine how these best practices are implemented in practice. One limitation of existing approaches for measuring compliance is the assumption that the compliance can be determined using the notion of process equivalence. Nonetheless, the use of equivalence algorithms is not adequate since two models can have different structures but one process can still be compliant with the other. This paper presents a new approach and algorithm which allow to measure the compliance of process models with reference models. We evaluate our approach by measuring the compliance of a model currently used by a German passenger airline with the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) reference model and by comparing our results with existing approaches.

  2. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  3. Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HEChunyang; LIJinggang; SHIPeijun; CHENJin; PANYaozhong; LIXiaobing

    2005-01-01

    Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different """"what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change innorthern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase,importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time.

  4. National Aviation Fuel Scenario Analysis Program (NAFSAP). Volume I. Model Description. Volume II. User Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    TESI CHART NATIONAI RUREAt (F ANDA[)Rt 1V4 A NATIONAL. AVIATION ~ FUEL SCENARIO.. ANALYSIS PROGRAM 49!! VOLUM I: MODEL DESCRIA~v 4<C VOLUME II: tr)ER...executes post processor which translates results of the graphics program to machine readable code used by the pen plotter) cr (depressing the carriage

  5. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  6. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...

  7. Virtual testing of driver OOP scenarios: effect of modeling detail on injury response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Rekveldt, M.G.C.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the relevance of certain parameters for virtual testing of the driver's side OOP problem and attempts to answer the following questions: Which level of detail is needed in the airbag models to assess occupants' injury values for OOP scenarios? What is the influence of the air

  8. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  9. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  10. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  11. Uncertainty Assessment for Numerical Modeling of Dune and Backshore Evolution Under Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, H.; Ye, M.; Niedoroda, A. W.; Kish, S.; Donoghue, J. F.; Saha, B.

    2010-12-01

    The beach dunes play an essential role in the evolution of barrier island shapes and coastlines. The dunes protect the beaches and beach ecology by absorbing energy from the storms and provide sediment to the beaches or backshores when erosion occurs. While a number of models have been developed to simulate the evolution of dunes and backshores, few of the models have comprehensively addressed dune growth, dune erosion, and backshore changes. Based on the assumption that dune shapes are stationary, we develop a new model that can estimate the dune and backshore evolution (including both growth and erosion) under the influence of storms with different sea-level rise scenarios. The modeling results are inherently uncertain due to unknown storm variability and sea-level rise scenarios. The storm uncertainty, characterized as parametric uncertainty, and its propagation to the modeling results are assessed using the Monte Carlo (MC) method. A total of 1500 realizations of storm magnitude, frequency, and track through a barrier island are generated and used for the MC simulation. The numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis is conducted for a synthetic barrier island with physical features and hurrucane exposure similar to Santa Rosa Island, in northwest Florida. Uncertainty in the simulated beach dune heights, dune width, and the backshore positions is assessed for five sea-level rise scenarios. The parametric uncertainty is different for different sea-level rise scenarios. For a given scenario, uncertainty of dune height is the largest and it is mainly caused by uncertainty in storm magnitude. This uncertainty analysis provides guidelines for coastal management and protection of coastal ecology.

  12. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different future pathways. This study demonstrates the potential to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations by applying spatial data of different scales, coupled with socio-economic data. In....... This will lead to less impact on climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transport infrastructure strategy........ In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...

  13. Towards a reference model for portfolio management for product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Flemming

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of portfolio management for product development at company level. Departing from a combination of explorative interviews with industry professionals and a literature review a proposal for a reference model for portfolio management is developed....... The model consists of a set of defined and interrelated concepts which forms a coherent and consistent reference model that explicate the totality of the portfolio management concept at company level in terms of structure, processes and elements. The model simultaneously pinpoints, positions and integrates...... several central dimensions of portfolio management....

  14. Towards a reference model for portfolio management for product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Flemming

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of portfolio management for product development at company level. Departing from a combination of explorative interviews with industry professionals and a literature review a proposal for a reference model for portfolio management is developed....... The model consists of a set of defined and interrelated concepts which forms a coherent and consistent reference model that explicate the totality of the portfolio management concept at company level in terms of structure, processes and elements. The model simultaneously pinpoints, positions and integrates...... several central dimensions of portfolio management....

  15. LHC Benchmark Scenarios for the Real Higgs Singlet Extension of the Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    Robens, Tania

    2016-01-01

    We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low mass and high mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group.

  16. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

  17. LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robens, Tania [TU Dresden, Institut fuer Kern- und Teilchenphysik, Dresden (Germany); Stefaniak, Tim [University of California, Department of Physics and Santa Cruz Institute for Particle Physics, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)

    2016-05-15

    We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

  18. Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

    2017-08-02

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

  19. Cognitive Modeling of Individual Variation in Reference Production and Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Petra

    2016-01-01

    A challenge for most theoretical and computational accounts of linguistic reference is the observation that language users vary considerably in their referential choices. Part of the variation observed among and within language users and across tasks may be explained from variation in the cognitive resources available to speakers and listeners. This paper presents a computational model of reference production and comprehension developed within the cognitive architecture ACT-R. Through simulations with this ACT-R model, it is investigated how cognitive constraints interact with linguistic constraints and features of the linguistic discourse in speakers' production and listeners' comprehension of referring expressions in specific tasks, and how this interaction may give rise to variation in referential choice. The ACT-R model of reference explains and predicts variation among language users in their referential choices as a result of individual and task-related differences in processing speed and working memory capacity. Because of limitations in their cognitive capacities, speakers sometimes underspecify or overspecify their referring expressions, and listeners sometimes choose incorrect referents or are overly liberal in their interpretation of referring expressions.

  20. Cognitive Modeling of Individual Variation in Reference Production and Comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra eHendriks

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A challenge for most theoretical and computational accounts of linguistic reference is the observation that language users vary considerably in their referential choices. Part of the variation observed among and within language users and across tasks may be explained from variation in the cognitive resources available to speakers and listeners. This paper presents a computational model of reference production and comprehension developed within the cognitive architecture ACT-R. Through simulations with this ACT-R model, it is investigated how cognitive constraints interact with linguistic constraints and features of the linguistic discourse in speakers’ production and listeners’ comprehension of referring expressions in specific tasks, and how this interaction may give rise to variation in referential choice. The ACT-R model of reference explains and predicts variation among language users in their referential choices as a result of individual and task-related differences in processing speed and working memory capacity. Because of limitations in their cognitive capacities, speakers sometimes underspecify or overspecify their referring expressions, and listeners sometimes choose incorrect referents or are overly liberal in their interpretation of referring expressions.

  1. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  2. Lightness of Higgs Boson and Spontaneous CP-violation in the Lee Model: An Alternative Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Mao, Ying-nan

    2016-01-01

    Based on the weakly-coupled two-Higgs-doublet model with spontaneous CP-violation (named Lee model) and the mechanism to generate the correlation between smallness of CP-violation and lightness of scalar mass, as we proposed earlier, we predicted a light CP-mixing scalar $\\eta$ in which pseudoscalar component is dominant. It is a natural scenario in which $m_{\\eta}\\sim\\mathcal{O}(10\\textrm{GeV})\\ll v$. Masses of all other scalars ($h$, $H$, $H^\\pm$) should be around the electro-weak scale $v$. Among them, the 125 GeV Higgs ($h$) couplings are standard-model like, and the charged Higgs ($H^\\pm$) mass should be around the heaviest neutral scalar ($H$) mass. We discussed all experimental constraints and showed that this scenario is still allowed by data. The strictest constraints come from the experiments of the flavor-changing processes and the EDM of lepton and neutron. We also discussed the future tests for this scenario. It is possible to discover the extra scalars or exclude this scenario at future collider...

  3. National level water quality simulation and climate change scenarios in Finland with WSFS-Vemala model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, M.; Huttunen, I.; Seppänen, V.; Vehviläinen, B.

    2012-04-01

    WSFS-Vemala model have been developed for water quality simulation and scenarios for Finland. The model consists of sub-models for hydrological cycle, nutrient leaching and transport in rivers and lakes. Simulation of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, suspended solids and total organic carbon is included. Hydrological simulation is based on WSFS system, which simulates the hydrological cycle by one day time step using standard meteorological data. The system covers the whole land area of Finland, including cross-border watersheds, total of 390 000 km2. The meteorological inputs of the model are daily precipitation and temperature and the simulated components are snow accumulation and melt, soil moisture, evaporation, ground water, runoff and discharges and water levels of rivers and lakes. The remote sensing data used in the model includes satellite data of snow coverage and snow water equivalent and precipitation from weather radars. In the hydrological simulation Finland is divided into 6200 50-100 km2 sub-basin. All lakes larger than one hectar are simulated, which is about 58 000 lakes. The large number of lakes is characteristics for Finland and especially for water quality simulation the lake processes are important and therefore all lakes are included. Since agriculture is the main source of nutrient loading, fields are described in detail. Slope profile, crop and soil type data for each 1 100 000 fields in Finland are described, which covers 2 450 000 hectares of fields. For phosphorus leaching and erosion simulation the field level Icecream model is applied. In the Icecream model farming practicies, fertilization, crop growth, phosphorus cycle in the soil and finally leaching and erosion are simulated on daily timestep. For nitrogen simulation in fields a similar process based model is applied on sub-basin level and field scale nitrogen simulation with Icecream model is under development. Point loads, atmospheric deposition and load from settlements are

  4. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  5. Cost-effectiveness models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : cross-model comparison of hypothetical treatment scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, Martine; Feenstra, Talitha L; Asukai, Yumi; Borg, Sixten; Hansen, Ryan N; Jansson, Sven-Arne; Samyshkin, Yevgeniy; Wacker, Margarethe; Briggs, Andrew H; Lloyd, Adam; Sullivan, Sean D; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To compare different chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models with respect to structure and input parameters and to cross-validate the models by running the same hypothetical treatment scenarios. METHODS: COPD modeling groups simulated four hypothetical inte

  6. A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

  7. Reduced Resolution Groundwater Modeling in the Rio Grande for Real Time Scenario Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, J. D.; Tidwell, V. C.

    2006-12-01

    As the finite, and often over-allocated water resources of the western United States are challenged by growing demands, computer based simulations can provide a powerful tool for evaluating potential water use scenarios in support of hydrologic decision making and water policy analysis. To represent the complexities of water resource management, a model should capture the salient behaviors and interactions between, the groundwater, surface water, and human behavioral systems, while to effectively connect science to the decision process, the model should run quickly enough to allow real time evaluation of a wide range of scenarios by stakeholders and decision makers themselves. As these potentially mutually exclusive objectives are pursued, the tradeoffs between resolution, run time, and the degree of coupling between modeled systems must be considered. In the Upper Rio Grande in New Mexico, three MODFLOW based, distributed groundwater models of the Espanola, Albuquerque, and Socorro groundwater basins have been used to calibrate a spatially simplified representation of the groundwater system in the region. The groundwater model is dynamically coupled to surface water and human behavioral systems as part of an integrated system dynamics based model which runs quickly enough to support rapid basin scale water policy scenario evaluation. This presentation will focus on development of the simplified groundwater model, and the performance tradeoffs and gains associated with spatial aggregation and dynamic coupling to the surface water system.

  8. Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the'Free Arctic'Scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hui-Jun; ZHANG Ying

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the'ice-free Arctic'issue under the future global warming scenario.Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3)were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free.The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA I B(according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios)simulations.Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened,leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China.The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation,a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China's Yangtze River Valley.The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

  9. Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

    2014-12-01

    For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales

  10. A Reference Model for Virtual Machine Launching Overhead

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Hao; Ren, Shangping; Garzoglio, Gabriele; Timm, Steven; Bernabeu, Gerard; Chadwick, Keith; Noh, Seo-Young

    2016-07-01

    Cloud bursting is one of the key research topics in the cloud computing communities. A well designed cloud bursting module enables private clouds to automatically launch virtual machines (VMs) to public clouds when more resources are needed. One of the main challenges in developing a cloud bursting module is to decide when and where to launch a VM so that all resources are most effectively and efficiently utilized and the system performance is optimized. However, based on system operational data obtained from FermiCloud, a private cloud developed by the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory for scientific workflows, the VM launching overhead is not a constant. It varies with physical resource utilization, such as CPU and I/O device utilizations, at the time when a VM is launched. Hence, to make judicious decisions as to when and where a VM should be launched, a VM launching overhead reference model is needed. In this paper, we first develop a VM launching overhead reference model based on operational data we have obtained on FermiCloud. Second, we apply the developed reference model on FermiCloud and compare calculated VM launching overhead values based on the model with measured overhead values on FermiCloud. Our empirical results on FermiCloud indicate that the developed reference model is accurate. We believe, with the guidance of the developed reference model, efficient resource allocation algorithms can be developed for cloud bursting process to minimize the operational cost and resource waste.

  11. Baryon isocurvature scenario in inflationary cosmology - A particle physics model and its astrophysical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Jun'ichi; Suto, Yasushi

    1991-01-01

    A phenomenological model to produce isocurvature baryon-number fluctuations is proposed in the framework of inflationary cosmology. The resulting spectrum of density fluctuation is very different from the conventional Harrison-Zel'dovich shape. The model, with the parameters satisfying several requirements from particle physics and cosmology, provides an appropriate initial condition for the minimal baryon isocurvature scenario of galaxy formation discussed by Peebles.

  12. Model reference, sliding mode adaptive control for flexible structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurkovich, S.; Ozguner, U.; Al-Abbass, F.

    1988-01-01

    A decentralized model reference adaptive approach using a variable-structure sliding model control has been developed for the vibration suppression of large flexible structures. Local models are derived based upon the desired damping and response time in a model-following scheme, and variable structure controllers are then designed which employ colocated angular rate and position feedback. Numerical simulations have been performed using NASA's flexible grid experimental apparatus.

  13. Adaptive Software Development supported by an Automated Process: a Reference Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AFFONSO, F. J.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a reference model as an automated process to assist the adaptive software development at runtime, also known as Self-adaptive Systems (SaS at runtime. This type of software has specific characteristics in comparison to traditional one, since it allows that changes (structural or behavioral to be incorporated at runtime. Automated processes have been used as a feasible solution to conduct software adaptation at runtime by minimizing human involvement (developers and speeding up the execution of tasks. In parallel, reference models have been used to aggregate knowledge and architectural artifacts, since they capture the systems essence in specific domains. However, presently no there is reference model based on reflection for the automation of software adaptation at runtime. In this scenario, this paper presents a reference model based on reflection, as an automated process, for the development of software systems that require adaptation at runtime. To show the applicability of the model, a case study was conducted and a good perspective to efficiently contribute to the area of SaS has been obtained.

  14. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  15. Reference physiological parameters for pharmacodynamic modeling of liver cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Travis, C.C.; Arms, A.D.

    1988-01-01

    This document presents a compilation of measured values for physiological parameters used in pharamacodynamic modeling of liver cancer. The physiological parameters include body weight, liver weight, the liver weight/body weight ratio, and number of hepatocytes. Reference values for use in risk assessment are given for each of the physiological parameters based on analyses of valid measurements taken from the literature and other reliable sources. The proposed reference values for rodents include sex-specific measurements for the B6C3F{sub 1}, mice and Fishcer 344/N, Sprague-Dawley, and Wistar rats. Reference values are also provided for humans. 102 refs., 65 tabs.

  16. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  17. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas H; Scharff, Heijo; Jacobs, Joeri

    2010-02-01

    The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1 tonne of wet waste landfilled and the environmental aspects were evaluated for a 100-year period after disposal. The data utilized in the LCA-calculations to model the first 10-20 years of landfilling of the two low-organic waste scenarios make extensive use of site-specific data from the Nauerna Landfill (The Netherlands), but average data from other comparable, existing landfills were used too. As data from full-scale landfills do not cover more than 30-40 years of landfilling, data from laboratory simulations and accelerated tests of limited scale were also utilized. The life-cycle impact assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed by the European Union Landfill Directive: Council Directive 1999/31/EC, EU, Brussels, 1999) can be a successful approach to decrease the environmental loads in several impact categories in comparison with landfilling of waste with significant organic content. However, when utilization of landfill gas is accounted for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO (Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality; WHO, Geneva, 2006) guideline for drinking water quality was assumed as reference. The results show that low-organic waste landfills

  18. A Java Reference Model of Transacted Memory for Smart Cards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poll, Erik; Hartel, Pieter; Jong, de Eduard

    2002-01-01

    Transacted Memory offers persistence, undoability and auditing. We present a Java/JML Reference Model of the Transacted Memory system on the basis of our earlier separate Z model and C implementation. We conclude that Java/JML combines the advantages of a high level specification in the JML part (ba

  19. Modelling tropical cyclone hazards under climate change scenario using geospatial techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M. A.; Phinn, S.; Roelfsema, C.; Childs, I.

    2016-11-01

    Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. As the intensity and frequency of cyclones will increase under the most likely future climate change scenarios, appropriate approaches at local scales (1-5 km) are essential for producing sufficiently detailed hazard models. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. This study developed and tested a hazard modelling approach for cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila, a 151 km2 local government area in coastal Bangladesh. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering model integrating historical cyclone data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to generate the cyclone hazard maps for different cyclone return periods. Frequency analysis was carried out using historical cyclone data (1960--2015) to calculate the storm surge heights of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods of cyclones. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. Our results showed that cyclone affected areas increased with the increase of return periods. Around 63% of study area was located in the moderate to very high hazard zones for 50 year return period, while it was 70% for 100 year return period. The climate change scenarios increased the cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in every return period. Our findings indicate this approach has potential to model the cyclone hazards for developing mitigation plans and strategies to reduce the future impacts of cyclones.

  20. Modelling intertidal sediment transport for nutrient change and climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Rose; Widdows, John

    2003-10-01

    A model of intertidal sediment transport, including effects of bioturbation and biostabilisation, was applied to two transects on the east coast of England: Leverton (within the Wash) and Skeffling (in the Humber Estuary). The physical and biological parameters were chosen to represent four 1-year scenarios: a baseline year (1995), the same year but with estuarine nitrate inputs reduced by 50% and by 16%, and a year with climate change effects estimated for 2050. The changes in nitrate supply can potentially change microphytobenthos numbers within the surface sediment, which will then affect erodibility. The model results show a range of behaviour determined by bathymetry, external forcing and biotic state. When intertidal sediment transport is dominated by external sediment supply, the model produces highest deposition at the most offshore point, and there is greatest deposition in the winter and spring, when offshore sediment concentrations are highest. When intertidal processes dominate intertidal sediment transport, there is a peak of deposition at the high-shore level and erosion at mid-tide levels. The greatest deposition now occurs in winter and summer, when low chlorophyll levels mean that the sediment is most erodible. The Skeffling transect was dominated by intertidal processes for the baseline scenario and with a 16% reduction in nitrate. Under the climate change (warm winter) scenario, the Skeffling transect was dominated by external sediment supply. The scenario with 50% reduction in nitrate gave intermediate behaviour at Skeffling (intertidally driven during the winter and summer, and governed by offshore sediment supply during spring and autumn). The Leverton transect was dominated by offshore sediment supply for all the scenarios.

  1. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    . In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

  2. Forward propagation of parametric uncertainties through models of NDE inspection scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Matthew; Sabbagh, Harold; Aldrin, John; Knopp, Jeremy; Pilchak, Adam

    2015-03-01

    Forward uncertainty propagation has been a topic of interest to NDE researchers for several years. To this point, the purpose has been to gain an understanding of the uncertainties that can be seen in signals from NDE sensors given uncertainties in the geometric and material parameters of the problem. However, a complex analysis of an inspection scenario with high variability has not been performed. Furthermore, these methods have not seen direct practical application in the areas of model assisted probability of detection or inverse problems. In this paper, uncertainty due to spatial heterogeneity in material systems that undergo NDE inspection will be discussed. Propagation of this uncertainty through forward models of inspection scenarios will be outlined and the mechanisms for representing the spatial heterogeneity will be explained in detail. Examples will be provided that illustrate the effect of high variability in uncertainty propagation in the context of forward modeling.

  3. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hamm

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Regional land use planning provides opportunities for governments, land users, and stakeholders to consider multiple land and resource interests over large geographic areas and meaningful time periods. The broad and integrative nature of regional planning is therefore well suited to assessing the potential cumulative effects of current and future land use activity. For this reason, cumulative effects assessment models and management concepts are playing an increasingly important role in regional planning. We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  4. Risk of malaria reemergence in southern France: testing scenarios with a multiagent simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Ponçon, Nicolas; Fontenille, Didier; Lambin, Eric F

    2009-03-01

    The Camargue, a region in southern France, is considered a potential site for malaria reemergence. All the suitable factors of the disease transmission system are present -- competent mosquito vectors, habitats for their breeding, and susceptible people -- except for the parasite. The objective of this study was to test potential drivers of malaria reemergence in this system after possible changes in biological attributes of vectors, agricultural practices, land use, tourism activities, and climate. Scenarios of plausible futures were formulated and then simulated using a spatially explicit and dynamic multiagent simulation: the MALCAM model. Scenarios were developed by varying the value of model inputs. Model outputs were compared based on the contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, and the number of new infections in case of reintroduction of the parasite in the region. Model simulations showed that the risk of malaria reemergence is low in the Camargue. If the disease would reemerge, it would be the result of a combination of unfavorable conditions: introduction of a large population of infectious people or mosquitoes, combined with high levels of people-vector contacts resulting from significant changes in land use, tourism activities, agricultural policies, biological evolution of mosquitoes, and climate changes. The representation in the MALCAM model of interactions and feedbacks between different agents, and between agents and their environment, led in some cases to counterintuitive results. Results from scenario analyses can help local public health authorities in policy formulation.

  5. Quasifixed point scenarios and the Higgs mass in the E6 inspired supersymmetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevzorov, R.

    2014-03-01

    We analyze the two-loop renormalization group (RG) flow of the gauge and Yukawa couplings within the E6 inspired supersymmetric models with extra U(1)N gauge symmetry under which right-handed neutrinos have zero charge. In these models, single discrete Z stretchy="false">˜2H symmetry forbids the tree-level flavor-changing transitions and the most dangerous baryon and lepton number violating operators. We consider two different scenarios A and B that involve extra matter beyond the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model contained in three and four 5+5¯ representations of SU(5), respectively, plus three SU(5) singlets which carry U(1)N charges. In scenario A, the measured values of the SU(2)W and U(1)Y gauge couplings lie near the fixed points of the RG equations. In scenario B, the contribution of two-loop corrections spoils the unification of gauge couplings, resulting in the appearance of the Landau pole below the grand unification scale MX. The solutions for the Yukawa couplings also approach the quasifixed points with increasing their values at the scale MX. We calculate the two-loop upper bounds on the lightest Higgs boson mass in the vicinity of these quasifixed points and compare the results of our analysis with the corresponding ones in the next-to-minimal supersymmetric Standard Model. In all these cases, the theoretical restrictions on the Standard-Model-like Higgs boson mass are rather close to 125 GeV.

  6. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  7. Evolution Scenarios at the Romanian Economy Level, Using the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian Stancu

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.

  8. JEDI Marine and Hydrokinetic Model: User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, M.; Previsic, M.

    2011-04-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (JEDI) for Marine and Hydrokinetics (MHK) is a user-friendly spreadsheet-based tool designed to demonstrate the economic impacts associated with developing and operating MHK power systems in the United States. The JEDI MHK User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in using and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the sources and parameters used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted.

  9. Experimental and Modeling Studies of Crush, Puncture, and Perforation Scenarios in the Steven Impact Test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandersall, K S; Chidester, S K; Forbes, J W; Garcia, F; Greenwood, D W; Switzer, L L; Tarver, C M

    2002-06-28

    The Steven test and associated modeling has greatly increased the fundamental knowledge of practical predictions of impact safety hazards for confined and unconfined explosive charges. Building on a database of initial work, experimental and modeling studies of crush, puncture, and perforation scenarios were investigated using the Steven impact test. The descriptions of crush, puncture, and perforation arose from safety scenarios represented by projectile designs that ''crush'' the energetic material or either ''puncture'' with a pinpoint nose or ''perforate'' the front cover with a transportation hook. As desired, these scenarios offer different aspects of the known mechanisms that control ignition: friction, shear and strain. Studies of aged and previously damaged HMX-based high explosives included the use of embedded carbon foil and carbon resistor gauges, high-speed cameras, and blast wave gauges to determine the pressure histories, time required for an explosive reaction, and the relative violence of those reactions, respectively. Various ignition processes were modeled as the initial reaction rate expression in the Ignition and Growth reaction rate equations. Good agreement with measured threshold velocities, pressure histories, and times to reaction was calculated for LX-04 impacted by several projectile geometries using a compression dependent ignition term and an elastic-plastic model with a reasonable yield strength for impact strain rates.

  10. Reference analysis of the signal + background model in counting experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadei, D.

    2012-01-01

    The model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as ``signal'' and ``background'' and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered from a Bayesian point of view. This is a widely used model for the searches of rare or exotic events in presence of a background source, as for example in the searches performed by high-energy physics experiments. In the assumption of prior knowledge about the background yield, a reference prior is obtained for the signal alone and its properties are studied. Finally, the properties of the full solution, the marginal reference posterior, are illustrated with few examples.

  11. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  12. Modeling Multiple Annotator Expertise in the Semi-Supervised Learning Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Yan, Yan; Fung, Glenn; Dy, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Learning algorithms normally assume that there is at most one annotation or label per data point. However, in some scenarios, such as medical diagnosis and on-line collaboration,multiple annotations may be available. In either case, obtaining labels for data points can be expensive and time-consuming (in some circumstances ground-truth may not exist). Semi-supervised learning approaches have shown that utilizing the unlabeled data is often beneficial in these cases. This paper presents a probabilistic semi-supervised model and algorithm that allows for learning from both unlabeled and labeled data in the presence of multiple annotators. We assume that it is known what annotator labeled which data points. The proposed approach produces annotator models that allow us to provide (1) estimates of the true label and (2) annotator variable expertise for both labeled and unlabeled data. We provide numerical comparisons under various scenarios and with respect to standard semi-supervised learning. Experiments showed ...

  13. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  14. Integrating coarse-scale uncertain soil moisture data into a fine-scale hydrological modelling scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vernieuwe

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In a hydrological modelling scenario, often the modeller is confronted with external data, such as remotely-sensed soil moisture observations, that become available to update the model output. However, the scale triplet (spacing, extent and support of these data is often inconsistent with that of the model. Furthermore, the external data can be cursed with epistemic uncertainty. Hence, a method is needed that not only integrates the external data into the model, but that also takes into account the difference in scale and the uncertainty of the observations. In this paper, a synthetic hydrological modelling scenario is set up in which a high-resolution distributed hydrological model is run over an agricultural field. At regular time steps, coarse-scale field-averaged soil moisture data, described by means of possibility distributions (epistemic uncertainty, are retrieved by synthetic aperture radar and assimilated into the model. A method is presented that allows to integrate the coarse-scale possibility distribution of soil moisture content data with the fine-scale model-based soil moisture data. To this end, a scaling relationship between field-averaged soil moisture content data and its corresponding standard deviation is employed.

  15. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios at large hadron collider

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Kajari Mazumdar; on behalf of the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations

    2007-11-01

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations. Main results from the recently published studies of CMS collaboration are only included in this write-up.

  16. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Muñoz-Rojas

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, as a consequence of the increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration, may significantly affect both soil organic C storage and soil capacity for C sequestration. In this research we develop a methodology to predict soil organic C (SOC contents and changes under global change scenarios. CarboSOIL model is a new component of the land evaluation decision support system MicroLEIS, which was designed to assist decision makers to face specific agro-ecological problems. CarboSOIL, developed as a GIS tool to predict SOC contents at different depths, was previously trained and tested in two Mediterranean areas: Andalusia (SW Spain and Valencia (E Spain. The model was applied under different IPPC scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1 according to different global climate models (BCCR-BCM2, CNRMCM3 and ECHAM5 and output data were linked to spatial datasets (soil and land use to quantify SOC stocks. CarboSOIL model has proved its ability to predict the short-, medium- and long-term trends (2040s, 2070s and 2100s of SOC dynamics and sequestration under projected future scenarios of climate change. Results showed an overall trend towards decreasing of SOC stocks in the upper soil sections (0–25 cm and 25–50 cm for most soil types and land uses, but predicted SOC stocks tend to increase in the deeper soil section (50–75 cm. Soil types as Arenosols, Planosols and Solonchaks and land uses as "permanent crops" and "open spaces with little or no vegetation" would be severely affected by climate change with large decreases of SOC stocks, in particular under the medium-high emission scenario A2 by 2100. The information developed in this study might support decision-making in land management and climate adaptation strategies in Mediterranean regions and the methodology could be applied to other Mediterranean areas with available soil, land use and climate data.

  17. Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment models

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, de, JMM John; Titus, Milan; Wind, Herman G.

    2000-01-01

    Decision-support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the co...

  18. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  19. Evaluation of soil contamination risk under climate change scenarios using Pantanal model in a Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Anaya-Romero, María; Jordán, Antonio; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; de la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    In this research, contamination vulnerability of Mediterranean soils was evaluated, using Andalusia (southern Spain; 87,600 km2) as a pilot area. The following components of the agro-ecological decision support system MicroLEIS DSS have been used: 1) SDBm, soil profile database, 2) CDBm, agroclimate database 3) MDBm, database of agricultural management, and 4) Pantanal model, specific assessment model for the vulnerability of soil contamination focus on nitrogen, phosphorous, heavy metals and pesticides. After the application of the model, results may be grouped into five vulnerability classes: V1-none, V2-low, V3-moderate, V4-high and V5-extreme for each specific contaminant. Physical and chemical data, and morphological description of 62 selected soil profiles from the study area were used in this study. Soil profiles were classified at sub-group level of USDA Soil Taxonomy, resulting in 37 units included in orders Inceptisols (26,9%), Entisols (21.2%), Alfisols (19.8%), Vertisols (17.9%), Mollisols (7.2%), Ultisols (4.3%) and Aridisols (2.8%). The CDBm database contains monthly average values of climate variables: mean temperature, maximum and minimum monthly rainfall, number of days of rain and humidity, collected during a consecutive period of 30 years that represent current climate scenario, and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070 and 2100). These scenarios have been calculated using climate change variation values from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET, 2011). The MDBm contains information about agricultural use and management of wheat crop. The Pantanal expert model was applied to each soil-unit. Results showed that 9.0%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 50.8% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3, and V4, respectively, for pesticide contamination under the current climatic scenario. Under the future climate change scenario, 7.7%, 10.0%, 17.7% and 64.6% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3 and V4, respectively, for pesticide

  20. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H

    2010-10-08

    Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.

  1. Reference analysis of the signal + background model in counting experiments II. Approximate reference prior

    CERN Document Server

    Casadei, Diego

    2014-01-01

    The objective Bayesian treatment of a model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered. It is shown that the reference prior for the parameter of interest (the signal intensity) is well approximated by the widely (ab)used flat prior only when the expected background is very high. For a large portion of the background parameters space, a very simple approximation (the asymptotic form of the reference prior for the limit of perfect prior background knowledge) can be safely used. In all cases, this approximation outperforms the uniform prior. When the asymptotic prior is not good enough, a simple 1-parameter fitting function is often sufficient to obtain an objective Bayesian solution. Otherwise, it is shown that a 2-parameters fitting function is able to reproduce the reference prior in all other cases. The latter is also useful to speed-up the computing time, which can be useful in a...

  2. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do......Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...

  3. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  4. The MADE reference information model for interoperable pervasive telemedicine systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fung, N.L.S.; Jones, V.M.; Hermens, H.J.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: The main objective is to develop and validate a reference information model (RIM) to support semantic interoperability of pervasive telemedicine systems. The RIM is one component within a larger, computer-interpretable "MADE language" developed by the authors in the context of the MobiGu

  5. Reference Priors for the General Location-Scale Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernández, C.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1997-01-01

    The reference prior algorithm (Berger and Bernardo 1992) is applied to multivariate location-scale models with any regular sampling density, where we establish the irrelevance of the usual assumption of Normal sampling if our interest is in either the location or the scale. This result immediately

  6. Implementing Kuhlthau: A New Model for Library and Reference Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isbell, Dennis; Kammerlocher, Lisa

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes Carol Kuhlthau's research on the information search process. Discusses how Kuhlthau's model of students' information search process (ISP) has been integrated into a course at Arizona State University and is being used experimentally as a training tool in the library's reference services. Selected student responses to research process…

  7. Fraction Multiplication and Division Models: A Practitioner Reference Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ervin, Heather K.

    2017-01-01

    It is well documented in literature that rational number is an important area of understanding in mathematics. Therefore, it follows that teachers and students need to have an understanding of rational number and related concepts such as fraction multiplication and division. This practitioner reference paper examines models that are important to…

  8. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  9. On fractional order composite model reference adaptive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yiheng; Sun, Zhenyuan; Hu, Yangsheng; Wang, Yong

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a novel composite model reference adaptive control approach for a class of fractional order linear systems with unknown constant parameters. The method is extended from the model reference adaptive control. The parameter estimation error of our method depends on both the tracking error and the prediction error, whereas the existing method only depends on the tracking error, which makes our method has better transient performance in the sense of generating smooth system output. By the aid of the continuous frequency distributed model, stability of the proposed approach is established in the Lyapunov sense. Furthermore, the convergence property of the model parameters estimation is presented, on the premise that the closed-loop control system is stable. Finally, numerical simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

  10. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

    2016-09-01

    We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

  11. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  12. IP Telephony Interconnection Reference Challenges, Models, and Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Boucadair, Mohamed; Neves, Pedro Miguel; Einarsson, Olafur Pall

    2011-01-01

    Addressing the growth of IP telephony service offerings within the corporate and residential realm, IP Telephony Interconnection Reference: Challenges, Models, and Engineering examines the technical and regulatory issues related to IP telephony interconnection at the large scale. It describes business and interconnection models, reviews emerging architectures such as IMS and TISPAN, identifies commonly-encountered issues, and supplies solutions to technical issues. The authors offer a detailed overview of SPEERMINT activity and proposed architecture, the current work undertaken in i3 Forum, an

  13. Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Buttafuoco

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the major components of the water balance and has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. For this reason, several methods have been developed to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0. In modelling reference evapotranspiration it is inevitable that both model and data input will present some uncertainty. Whatever model is used, the errors in the input will propagate to the output of the calculated ET0. Neglecting information about estimation uncertainty, however, may lead to improper decision-making and water resources management. One geostatistical approach to spatial analysis is stochastic simulation, which draws alternative and equally probable, realizations of a regionalized variable. Differences between the realizations provide a measure of spatial uncertainty and allow to carry out an error propagation analysis. Among the evapotranspiration models, the Hargreaves-Samani model was used.

    The aim of this paper was to assess spatial uncertainty of a monthly reference evapotranspiration model resulting from the uncertainties in the input attributes (mainly temperature at regional scale. A case study was presented for Calabria region (southern Italy. Temperature data were jointly simulated by conditional turning bands simulation with elevation as external drift and 500 realizations were generated.

    The ET0 was then estimated for each set of the 500 realizations of the input variables, and the ensemble of the model outputs was used to infer the reference evapotranspiration probability distribution function. This approach allowed to delineate the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, to improve supplementary sampling strategies and ET0 value predictions.

  14. Human health screening level risk assessments of tertiary-butyl acetate (TBAC): calculated acute and chronic reference concentration (RfC) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) values based on toxicity and exposure scenario evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bus, James S; Banton, Marcy I; Faber, Willem D; Kirman, Christopher R; McGregor, Douglas B; Pourreau, Daniel B

    2015-02-01

    A screening level risk assessment has been performed for tertiary-butyl acetate (TBAC) examining its primary uses as a solvent in industrial and consumer products. Hazard quotients (HQ) were developed by merging TBAC animal toxicity and dose-response data with population-level, occupational and consumer exposure scenarios. TBAC has a low order of toxicity following subchronic inhalation exposure, and neurobehavioral changes (hyperactivity) in mice observed immediately after termination of exposure were used as conservative endpoints for derivation of acute and chronic reference concentration (RfC) values. TBAC is not genotoxic but has not been tested for carcinogenicity. However, TBAC is unlikely to be a human carcinogen in that its non-genotoxic metabolic surrogates tertiary-butanol (TBA) and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) produce only male rat α-2u-globulin-mediated kidney cancer and high-dose specific mouse thyroid tumors, both of which have little qualitative or quantitative relevance to humans. Benchmark dose (BMD)-modeling of the neurobehavioral responses yielded acute and chronic RfC values of 1.5 ppm and 0.3 ppm, respectively. After conservative modeling of general population and near-source occupational and consumer product exposure scenarios, almost all HQs were substantially less than 1. HQs exceeding 1 were limited to consumer use of automotive products and paints in a poorly ventilated garage-sized room (HQ = 313) and occupational exposures in small and large brake shops using no personal protective equipment or ventilation controls (HQs = 3.4-126.6). The screening level risk assessments confirm low human health concerns with most uses of TBAC and indicate that further data-informed refinements can address problematic health/exposure scenarios. The assessments also illustrate how tier-based risk assessments using read-across toxicity information to metabolic surrogates reduce the need for comprehensive animal testing.

  15. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  16. Model Independent Framework for Analysis of Scenarios with Multiple Heavy Extra Quarks

    CERN Document Server

    Barducci, Daniele; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. The code will soon be publicly available and will be upgraded to include data from new searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analy...

  17. Trajectory Generation Model-Based IMM Tracking for Safe Driving in Intersection Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Tracking the actions of vehicles at crossroads and planning safe trajectories will be an effective method to reduce the rate of traffic accident at intersections. It is to resolve the problem of the abrupt change because of the existence of drivers' voluntary choices. In this paper, we make approach of an improved IMM tracking method based on trajectory generation, abstracted by trajectory generation algorithm, to improve this situation. Because of the similarity between human-driving trajectory and programming trajectory which is generated by trajectory-generated algorithm, the improved IMM method performs well in tracking moving vehicles with some sudden changes of its movement. A set of data is collected for experiments when an object vehicle takes a sudden left turn in intersection scenario. To compare the experiment results between IMM method with trajectory generation model and the one without, tracking error of the former decreases by 75% in particular scenario.

  18. Scenario and parameter studies on global deposition of radioactivity using the computer model GLODEP2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shapiro, C.S.

    1984-08-01

    The GLODEP2 computer code was utilized to determine biological impact to humans on a global scale using up-to-date estimates of biological risk. These risk factors use varied biological damage models for assessing effects. All the doses reported are the unsheltered, unweathered, smooth terrain, external gamma dose. We assume the unperturbed atmosphere in determining injection and deposition. Effects due to ''nuclear winter'' may invalidate this assumption. The calculations also include scenarios that attempt to assess the impact of the changing nature of the nuclear stockpile. In particular, the shift from larger to smaller yield nuclear devices significantly changes the injection pattern into the atmosphere, and hence significantly affects the radiation doses that ensue. We have also looked at injections into the equatorial atmosphere. In total, we report here the results for 8 scenarios. 10 refs., 6 figs., 11 tabs.

  19. Reference Model 6 (RM6): Oscillating Wave Energy Converter.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bull, Diana L; Smith, Chris; Jenne, Dale Scott; Jacob, Paul; Copping, Andrea; Willits, Steve; Fontaine, Arnold; Brefort, Dorian; Gordon, Margaret Ellen; Copeland, Robert; Jepsen, Richard Alan

    2014-10-01

    This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. In this report, a conceptual design for an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (WEC) device appropriate for the modeled reference resource site was identified, and a detailed backward bent duct buoy (BBDB) device design was developed using a combination of numerical modeling tools and scaled physical models. Our team used the methodology in SAND2013-9040 for the economic analysis that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays, up to 100 devices. The methodology was applied to identify key cost drivers and to estimate levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for this RM6 Oscillating Water Column device in dollars per kilowatt-hour ($/kWh). Although many costs were difficult to estimate at this time due to the lack of operational experience, the main contribution of this work was to disseminate a detailed set of methodologies and models that allow for an initial cost analysis of this emerging technology. This project is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Program Office (WWPTO), within the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE). Sandia National Laboratories, the lead in this effort, collaborated with partners from National Laboratories, industry, and universities to design and test this reference model.

  20. A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  1. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

    2012-01-01

    developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility......For WLAN systems in which relaying is exploited for improving throughput performance, node mobility and in- formation collection delays can have a significant impact on the performance of a relay selection scheme. This paper analyzes this influence on the decision process using a previously...... and information collection delays is significantly different for the two data sets....

  2. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  3. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

    2015-01-01

    Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  4. [Spirographic reference values. Mathematical models and practical use (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouet, D; Kauffmann, F; Brille, D; Lellouch, J

    1980-01-01

    Various models predicting VC and FEV1 from age and height have been compared by both theoretical and practical approaches on several subgroups of a working population examined in 1960 and 1972. The models in which spirographic values are proportional to the cube of the height give a significantly worse fit of the data. All the other models give similar predicted values in practical terms, but cutoff points depend on the distributions of VC and FEV1 given age and height. Results show that these distributions are closer to a normal than to a lognormal distribution. The use of reference values and classical cutoffs is then discussed. Rather than using a single cutoff point, a more quantitative way is proposed to describe the subjects' functional status, for example by situating him in the percentile of the reference population. In screening, cutoff points cannot be choosen without specifying first the decision considered and the population concerned.

  5. Tracking stochastic resonance curves using an assisted reference model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calderón Ramírez, Mario; Rico Martínez, Ramiro [Departamento de Ingeniería Química, Instituto Tecnológico de Celaya, Av. Tecnológico y A. García Cubas S/N, Celaya, Guanajuato, 38010 (Mexico); Ramírez Álvarez, Elizeth [Nonequilibrium Chemical Physics, Physik-Department, TU-München, James-Franck-Str. 1, 85748 Garching bei München (Germany); Parmananda, P. [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076 (India)

    2015-06-15

    The optimal noise amplitude for Stochastic Resonance (SR) is located employing an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) reference model with a nonlinear predictive capability. A modified Kalman Filter (KF) was coupled to this reference model in order to compensate for semi-quantitative forecast errors. Three manifestations of stochastic resonance, namely, Periodic Stochastic Resonance (PSR), Aperiodic Stochastic Resonance (ASR), and finally Coherence Resonance (CR) were considered. Using noise amplitude as the control parameter, for the case of PSR and ASR, the cross-correlation curve between the sub-threshold input signal and the system response is tracked. However, using the same parameter the Normalized Variance curve is tracked for the case of CR. The goal of the present work is to track these curves and converge to their respective extremal points. The ANN reference model strategy captures and subsequently predicts the nonlinear features of the model system while the KF compensates for the perturbations inherent to the superimposed noise. This technique, implemented in the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, enabled us to track the resonance curves and eventually locate their optimal (extremal) values. This would yield the optimal value of noise for the three manifestations of the SR phenomena.

  6. Forward modeling of an atmospheric scenario: path characterization in terms of scattering intensity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosisio, Ada Vittoria; Cadeddu, Maria P.; Fionda, Ermanno; Ciotti, Piero

    2016-01-01

    The knowledge of possible impairments due to atmospheric propagation is of importance in the framework of future 5G mobile networks that use spectrum resource up to the W band. Here, the authors propose the scalar Scatter Indicator (SI), defined as the difference between the simulated TB at 72 GHz and the TB value at the same frequency estimated from a combination of TBs values at 23.8 and 31.4 GHz under assumed scatter-free condition. On the basis of radiosonde profiles observed in Milan, Linate (Italy) in 2005, clear-sky scenarios are used as reference to define a scatter-free TB’s database. A second database of simulated TBs including scattering effects is generated with ARTS to build the SI. Numerical results show that the SI assumes significant positive values with increasing drop effective radius and total liquid water LWP and it can be used to identify the scattering due to hydrometeor

  7. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2017-09-05

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Downscaling SSPs in the GBM Delta - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Munsur Rahman, Md.; Hutton, Craig; Lazar, Attila

    2016-04-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  9. Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  10. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  11. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...... tonne of wet waste landfilled and the environmental aspects were evaluated for a 100-year period after disposal. The data utilized in the LCA-calculations to model the first 10-20 years of landfilling of the two low-organic waste scenarios make extensive use of site-specific data from the Nauerna...... assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed...

  12. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

  13. Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye.V. Krykavskyi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: - generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; - choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business

  14. Direct Model Reference Adaptive Control for a Magnetic Bearing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durling, Mike [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

    1999-11-01

    A Direct Model Reference Adaptive Controller (DMRAC) is applied to a magnetic bearing test stand. The bearing of interest is the MBC 500 Magnetic Bearing System manufactured by Magnetic Moments, LLC. The bearing model is presented in state space form and the system transfer function is measured directly using a closed-loop swept sine technique. Next, the bearing models are used to design a phase-lead controller, notch filter and then a DMRAC. The controllers are tuned in simulations and finally are implemented using a combination of MATLAB, SIMULINK and dSPACE. The results show a successful implementation of a DMRAC on the magnetic bearing hardware.

  15. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  16. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

    2012-12-12

    The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  17. Modelling moose–forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJager, Nathan R.; Rohweder, Jason; Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Fox, Timothy J.; Romanski, Mark C.

    2017-01-01

    Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented

  18. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  19. GOES-R Ground Segment Technical Reference Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, R. G.; Burnett, M.; Khanna, R.

    2012-12-01

    NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite -R Series (GOES-R) Ground Segment Project (GSP) has developed a Technical Reference Model (TRM) to support the documentation of technologies that could form the basis for a set of requirements that could support the evolution towards a NESDIS enterprise ground system. Architecture and technologies in this TRM can be applied or extended to other ground systems for planning and development. The TRM maps GOES-R technologies to the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Federal Enterprise Architecture (FEA) Consolidated Reference Model (CRM) V 2.3 Technical Services Standard (TSS). The FEA TRM categories are the framework for the GOES-R TRM. This poster will present the GOES-R TRM.

  20. Reference Model of Desired Yaw Angle for Automated Lane Changing Behavior of Vehicle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dianbo Ren; Guanzhe Zhang; Hangzhe Wu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, it studies the problem of trajectory planning and tracking for lane changing behavior of vehicle in automatic highway systems. Based on the model of yaw angle acceleration with positive and negative trapezoid constraint, by analyzing the variation laws of yaw motion of vehicle during a lane changing maneuver, the reference model of desired yaw angle and yaw rate for lane changing is generated. According to the yaw angle model, the vertical and horizontal coordinates of trajectory for vehicle lane change are calculated. Assuming that the road curvature is a constant, the difference and associations between two scenarios are analyzed, the lane changing maneuvers occurred on curve road and straight road, respectively. On this basis, it deduces the calculation method of desired yaw angle for lane changing on circular road. Simulation result shows that, it is different from traditional lateral acceleration planning method with the trapezoid constraint, by applying the trapezoidal yaw acceleration reference model proposed in this paper, the resulting expected yaw angular acceleration is continuous, and the step tracking for steering angle is not needed to implement. Due to the desired yaw model is direct designed based on the variation laws of raw movement of vehicle during a lane changing maneuver, rather than indirectly calculated from the trajectory model for lane changing, the calculation steps are simplified.

  1. Reference-data modelling for tracking and tracing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorp, van C.A.

    2004-01-01

    Subject headings: supply chain, tracking and tracing, reference-data modelling

  2. Reference Model 5 (RM5): Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Y. H. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jenne, D. S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thresher, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Copping, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Geerlofs, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hanna, L. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. A conceptual design for a taut moored oscillating surge wave energy converter was developed. The design had an annual electrical power of 108 kilowatts (kW), rated power of 360 kW, and intended deployment at water depths between 50 m and 100 m. The study includes structural analysis, power output estimation, a hydraulic power conversion chain system, and mooring designs. The results were used to estimate device capital cost and annual operation and maintenance costs. The device performance and costs were used for the economic analysis, following the methodology presented in SAND2013-9040 that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays up to 100 devices. The levelized cost of energy estimated for the Reference Model 5 OSWEC, presented in this report, was for a single device and arrays of 10, 50, and 100 units, and it enabled the economic analysis to account for cost reductions associated with economies of scale. The baseline commercial levelized cost of energy estimate for the Reference Model 5 device in an array comprised of 10 units is $1.44/kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the value drops to approximately $0.69/kWh for an array of 100 units.

  3. Reference-data modelling for tracking and tracing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorp, van C.A.

    2004-01-01

    Subject headings: supply chain, tracking and tracing, reference-data modelling

  4. Validation of Tilt Gain under Realistic Path Loss Model and Network Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Huan Cong; Rodriguez, Ignacio; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a simple and commonly-applied radio optimization technique, the impact on practical network performance from base station antenna downtilt is not well understood. Most published studies based on empirical path loss models report tilt angles and performance gains that are far higher...... than practical experience suggests. We motivate in this paper, based on a practical LTE scenario, that the discrepancy partly lies in the path loss model, and shows that a more detailed semi-deterministic model leads to both lower gains in terms of SINR, outage probability and downlink throughput...... settings, including the use of electrical and/or mechanical antenna downtilt, and therefore it is possible to find multiple optimum tilt profiles in a practical case. A broader implication of this study is that care must be taken when using the 3GPP model to evaluate advanced adaptive antenna techniques...

  5. Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

  6. A new reference viscosity model for hydrogen sulfide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, K.A.G. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Chemical and Materials Engineering, Electrical and Computer Engineering Research Facility; Quinones-Cisneros, S.E. [Univ. Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico). Dept. of Rheology, Materials Research Inst.; Giri, B.R.; Blais, P.; Marriott, R.A. [Alberta Sulphur Research Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry

    2010-07-01

    New and economical ways of reducing emissions of acid gases to the atmosphere are becoming increasingly important in the petroleum industry. This presentation discussed the promising sequestration option of injecting these acid gases into formations for disposal and or storage. Acid gas injection (AGI) is a commonly used process for the disposal of mixtures of hydrogen sulphide and carbon dioxide, particularly in small scale schemes. The acid gas is sometimes used as a miscible flood fluid for pressure maintenance. The use of AGI is being considered for the production of elemental sulphur. Accurate viscosities are needed in the design of these injection schemes to determine pressure drops due to fluid flow in both the acid gas pipeline and the injection well. This presentation included experimental data and discussed the applicability of the friction theory for viscosity modelling to reproduce the existing experimental visco cities of hydrogen sulphide and its mixtures. The friction theory model was shown to be a highly flexible and powerful tool for the modelling the viscosity of reservoir fluids, from light to heavy fluids under broad conditions of temperature, pressure and composition. During the development of this reference viscosity model, a literature review identified areas where additional data is needed to fill voids and resolve discrepancies of existing data sets. It was concluded that although the developed model was based on limited data, the sound physical reasoning provided good results. An experimental program has been launched to determine the viscosities of hydrogen sulphide (H{sub 2}S) in the critical areas identified in the initial reference model. The current update to the data set consists of experimental H{sub 2}S viscosities up to 1000 bar and at temperatures between 0 and 150 degrees C. The data will be applied to update the H{sub 2}S reference viscosity model based on the friction-theory. The updated reference equation will help improve

  7. Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for different scenarios of electrical power generation in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham A. Hefny

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In the analytic network process (ANP a hierarchy or network is created to represent a decision and establishes a matrix containing the pair wise comparison judgments for the elements linked under a parent element. A priority vector of relative weights for these elements is derived. Then all the priority vectors are appropriately weighted and summed to obtain the overall priorities for the alternatives of a decision. In this paper we will develop an efficient fuzzy ANP model which helps decision makers to choose among the alternatives for the Egyptian scenarios of electrical power generation.

  8. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  9. LES of wind farm response to transient scenarios using a high fidelity actuator disk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moens, M.; Duponcheel, M.; Winckelmans, G.; Chatelain, P.

    2016-09-01

    Large eddy simulations coupled to Actuator Disks are used to investigate wake effects in wind farms. An effort is made on the wind turbine model: it uses the prevailing velocities at each point of the disk to estimate the aerodynamic loads and is improved using a tip-loss correction and realistic control schemes. This accurate and efficient tool is used to study the wind farm response in terms of flow and power production during an unsteady scenario: this work focuses on an emergency shutdown of one rotor inside a wind farm.

  10. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundamental...... parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner's or charterer's speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved....

  11. Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

    2016-10-25

    The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

  12. Analytical model of multi-planetary resonant chains and constraints on migration scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delisle, J.-B.

    2017-09-01

    Resonant chains are groups of planets for which each pair is in resonance, with an orbital period ratio locked at a rational value (2/1, 3/2, etc.). Such chains naturally form as a result of convergent migration of the planets in the proto-planetary disk. In this article, I present an analytical model of resonant chains of any number of planets. Using this model, I show that a system captured in a resonant chain can librate around several possible equilibrium configurations. The probability of capture around each equilibrium depends on how the chain formed, and especially on the order in which the planets have been captured in the chain. Therefore, for an observed resonant chain, knowing around which equilibrium the chain is librating allows for constraints to be put on the formation and migration scenario of the system. I apply this reasoning to the four planets orbiting Kepler-223 in a 3:4:6:8 resonant chain. I show that the system is observed around one of the six equilibria predicted by the analytical model. Using N-body integrations, I show that the most favorable scenario to reproduce the observed configuration is to first capture the two intermediate planets, then the outermost, and finally the innermost.

  13. Hydrosystems Modeling in an Andean River Basin Under Development and Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, J. P.; McPhee, J.

    2007-12-01

    The Aconcagua river basin is located in the central zone of Chile, has a Mediterranean-type climate, and its runoff regime is markedly nivo-pluvial. Water main users include agriculture, mining, hydropower, industry and domestic supply. Rapid growth of land use for high-value crop agriculture and countrywide expansion of power demand has increased pressure over water resources in the Basin. On the other hand, integrated management of watershed resources is complicated by the fact that in Chile water rights become private property once allocated. This work demonstrates the development of a hydrologic-operational simulation model for the Aconcagua River Basin using the Water Evaluation and Plannning (WEAP) System, which allows to integrate diverse uses of the river basin and varied scenarios of development as well as hydrologic conditions. The proposed model is used to evaluate the performance of several development strategies with respect to stakeholders preferences, including infrastructure, land use change and conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources. Additionally, the influence of hydrologic and climatic uncertainty on water rights reliability and other typical management assumptions (such as the concept of hydrologically independent "river sections") is assessed by direct input of climate change scenarios contained in the IPCC IV report to the hydrologic model.

  14. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  15. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Andrew Joyner

    Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

  16. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Timothy Andrew; Lukhnova, Larissa; Pazilov, Yerlan; Temiralyeva, Gulnara; Hugh-Jones, Martin E; Aikimbayev, Alim; Blackburn, Jason K

    2010-03-09

    Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2) and 8 km(2) and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2). Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2), approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2), and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2). Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis.

  17. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  18. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  19. Towards a Cognitive Handoff for the Future Internet: Model-driven Methodology and Taxonomy of Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez-Horta, Francisco A; Ramirez-Cortes, Juan M; Martinez-Carballido, Jorge; Buenfil-Alpuche, Eldamira

    2011-01-01

    A cognitive handoff is a multipurpose handoff that achieves many desirable features simultaneously; e.g., seamlessness, autonomy, security, correctness, adaptability, etc. But, the development of cognitive handoffs is a challenging task that has not been properly addressed in the literature. In this paper, we discuss the difficulties of developing cognitive handoffs and propose a new model-driven methodology for their systematic development. The theoretical framework of this methodology is the holistic approach, the functional decomposition method, the model-based design paradigm, and the theory of design as scientific problem-solving. We applied the proposed methodology and obtained the following results: (i) a correspondence between handoff purposes and quantitative environment information, (ii) a novel taxonomy of handoff mobility scenarios, and (iii) an original state-based model representing the functional behavior of the handoff process.

  20. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  1. Renaturalisation of forest ecosystems: is a reference model really needed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nocentini S

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Renaturalisation is more and more often considered the aim of management when dealing with simplified forests. The term “renaturalisation” has become the keyword of many forest management projects. A reference model or system is often considered essential for forest renaturalisation. This approach is coherent with a school of thought which finds relevant examples in the science and practice of Ecological restoration. The search for a reference system has several practical limitations and, especially, a severe theoretical fault. The definition of a reference system underlies the idea that ecosystem reactions to management can be exactly forecast and thus ecosystems can be guided towards a predefined composition, structure and functionality. This idea stems from a deterministic imprinting which characterises traditional forestry thinking and which is clearly in contrast with the dynamic nature of forest ecosystems. If renaturalisation is seen as a silvicultural and management approach which tends to favour natural evolutionary processes through the system’s ability to autonomously increase its complexity and biodiversity, then the actual system under management is the only possible reference system. An accurate analysis of the evolutionary trends in relation to the actual environmental conditions and landscape matrix should therefore be the basis for the renaturalisation process. Management must proceed as an experiment: the reaction to each intervention must be monitored using appropriate indicators. These are not to be seen as reference limits but as parameters for quantifying changes in the system’s self-regulating processes. In conclusion, renaturalisation has more to do with the way we interact with nature than with a closed project with a clearly defined beginning and end.

  2. Bounding Ground Motions for Hayward Fault Scenario Earthquakes Using Suites of Stochastic Rupture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, A. J.; Xie, X.; Petersson, A.

    2007-12-01

    The next major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area is likely to occur on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system. Attention on the southern Hayward section is appropriate given the upcoming 140th anniversary of the 1868 M 7 rupture coinciding with the estimated recurrence interval. This presentation will describe ground motion simulations for large (M > 6.5) earthquakes on the Hayward Fault using a recently developed elastic finite difference code and high-performance computers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our code easily reads the recent USGS 3D seismic velocity model of the Bay Area developed in 2005 and used for simulations of the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Previous work has shown that the USGS model performs very well when used to model intermediate period (4-33 seconds) ground motions from moderate (M ~ 4-5) earthquakes (Rodgers et al., 2008). Ground motions for large earthquakes are strongly controlled by the hypocenter location, spatial distribution of slip, rise time and directivity effects. These are factors that are impossible to predict in advance of a large earthquake and lead to large epistemic uncertainties in ground motion estimates for scenario earthquakes. To bound this uncertainty, we are performing suites of simulations of scenario events on the Hayward Fault using stochastic rupture models following the method of Liu et al. (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 2118-2130, 2006). These rupture models have spatially variable slip, rupture velocity, rise time and rake constrained by characterization of inferred finite fault ruptures and expert opinion. Computed ground motions show variability due to the variability in rupture models and can be used to estimate the average and spread of ground motion measures at any particular site. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No.W-7405-Eng-48. This is

  3. Coordinate Reference System Metadata in Interdisciplinary Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blodgett, D. L.; Arctur, D. K.; Hnilo, J.; Danko, D. M.; Rutledge, G. K.

    2011-12-01

    For global climate modeling based on a unit sphere, the positional accuracy of transformations between "real earth" coordinates and the spherical earth coordinates is practically irrelevant due to the coarse grid and precision of global models. Consequently, many climate models are driven by data using real-earth coordinates without transforming them to the shape of the model grid. Additionally, metadata to describe the earth shape and its relationship to latitude longitude demarcations, or datum, used for model output is often left unspecified or ambiguous. Studies of weather and climate effects on coastal zones, water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, and other critical domains typically require positional accuracy on the order of several meters or less. This precision requires that a precise datum be used and accounted for in metadata. While it may be understood that climate model results using spherical earth coordinates could not possibly approach this level of accuracy, precise coordinate reference system metadata is nevertheless required by users and applications integrating climate and geographic information. For this reason, data publishers should provide guidance regarding the appropriate datum to assume for their data. Without some guidance, analysts must make assumptions they are uncomfortable or unwilling to make and may spend inordinate amounts of time researching the correct assumption to make. A consequence of the (practically justified for global climate modeling) disregard for datums is that datums are also neglected when publishing regional or local scale climate and weather data where datum information may be important. For example, observed data, like precipitation and temperature measurements, used in downscaling climate model results are georeferenced precisely. If coordinate reference system metadata are disregarded in cases like this, systematic biases in geolocation can result. Additionally, if no datum transformation was applied to

  4. A reference worldwide model for antineutrinos from reactors

    CERN Document Server

    Baldoncini, Marica; Fiorentini, Giovanni; Mantovani, Fabio; Ricci, Barbara; Strati, Virginia; Xhixha, Gerti

    2014-01-01

    Antineutrinos produced at nuclear reactors constitute a severe source of background for the detection of geoneutrinos, which bring to the Earth's surface information about natural radioactivity in the whole planet. In this framework we provide a reference worldwide model for antineutrinos from reactors, in view of reactors operational records yearly published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). We evaluate the expected signal from commercial reactors for ongoing (KamLAND and Borexino), planned (SNO+) and proposed (Juno, RENO-50, LENA and Hanohano) experimental sites. Uncertainties related to reactor antineutrino production, propagation and detection processes are estimated using a Monte Carlo based approach, which provides an overall site dependent uncertainty on the signal in the geoneutrino energy window on the order of 3%. We also implement the off-equilibrium correction to the reference reactor spectra associated with the long-lived isotopes and we estimate a 2.4% increase of the unoscillate...

  5. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  6. Tsunamis generated by 3D deformable landslides in various scenarios: laboratory experiments and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Horrillo, J. J.; Mohammed, F.

    2014-12-01

    Landslide generated tsunamis such as Lituya Bay, Alaska 1958 account for some of highest recorded tsunami runup heights. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by pneumatic pistons down slope. Two different landslide materials are used to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are compared between the planar hill slope used in various scenarios and the convex hill slope of the conical island. The energy conversion rates from the landslide motion to the wave train is quantified for the planar and convex hill slopes. The wave runup data on the opposing headland is analyzed and evaluated with wave theories. The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance three-dimensional numerical landslide tsunami prediction models. Two 3D Navier-Stokes models were tested, the commercial code FLOW-3D

  7. Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Yildiray; Lee, Ritchie; Brat, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

  8. Preliminary scenarios and nuclide transport models for low-and intermediate-level repository system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Han, Kyong Won; Hwang, Yong Soo; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2001-02-01

    Through the study 11 scenarios with which nuclide release from the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste could be simulated and assessed are selected, based upon FEPs identified. For each scenario, some practical methodologies as well as mathematical models involved in modling of nuclide transport in various media are also proposed. It is considered that such methodologies can play a great role when real repository system is constructed and operated in very near future. Real repository system is anticipated not to be quite different with the repository system postulated through this study. Even though there shows very complicated features for relevant parameters associated with various phisical-, geohydrological-, and geochemical situation and even human society as well, it is very necessary to propose the methodologies for a quantitative assessment of the performance of the repository in order to use them as a template on the practical point of view of preliminary safety assessment. Mathematical models proposed could be easily adopted by such common computer codes as, for example, MIMOSA and MASCOT-K.

  9. Cosmological constant problem in a scenario with compactifications (RS-I model)

    CERN Document Server

    Martinez-Robles, C

    2016-01-01

    In this letter, we apply the Randall-Sundrum (RS) model, a scenario based on compactifications, to control the UV divergence of the zero-point energy density equation for the vacuum fluctuations, which has been unsuccessfully addressed to the cosmological constant (CC) due to a heavy discrepancy between theory and observation. Historically, the problem of CC has been shelved in the RS point of view, having few or non literature on the subject. In this sense and as done with the hierarchy problem, we apply the RS model to solve this difference via extra dimensions; we also describe how brane effects could be the solution to this substantial difference. It should be noticed that this problem is studied assuming first Minkoswki type branes, and then followed by cosmologically more realistic FLRW type branes. We finally find some remarkably interesting consequences in the RS scenario: The CC problem can be solved via compactification of the extra dimension and the compactification radius turns out to be approxima...

  10. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

  11. Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChengHe Guan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The formation of ‘Urban Networks’ has become a wide-spread phenomenon around the world. In the study of metropolitan regions, there are competing or diverging views about management and control of environmental and land-use factors as well as about scales and arrangements of settlements. Especially in China, these matters alongside of regulatory aspects, infrastructure applications, and resource allocations, are important because of population concentrations and the overlapping of urban areas with other land resources. On the other hand, the increasing sophistication of models operating on iterative computational power and widely-available spatial information and analytical techniques make it possible to simulate and investigate the spatial distribution of urban territories at a regional scale. This research applies a scenario-based Cellular Automata model to a case study of the Changjiang Delta Region, which produces useful and predictive scenario-based projections within the region, using quantitative methods and baseline conditions that address issues of regional urban development. The contribution of the research includes the improvement of computer simulation of urban growth, the application of urban form and other indices to evaluate complex urban conditions, and a heightened understanding of the performance of an urban network in the Changjiang Delta Region composed of big, medium, and small-sized cities and towns.

  12. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF TRIAXIAL MULTIMODE ATTITUDE AND HEADING REFERENCE SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olha Sushchenko

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper deals with the mathematical description of the gimballed attitude and heading reference systems, which can be applied in design of strategic precision navigation systems. The main goal is to created mathematical description taking into consideration the necessity to use different navigations operating modes of this class of navigation systems. To provide the high accuracy the indirect control is used when the position of the gimballed platform is controlled by signals of gyroscopic devices, which are corrected using accelerometer’s signals. Methods: To solve the given problem the methods of the classical theoretical mechanics, gyro theory, and inertial navigation are used. Results: The full mathematical model of the gimballed attitude and heading reference system is derived including descriptions of different operating modes. The mathematical models of the system Expressions for control and correction moments in the different modes are represented. The simulation results are given. Conclusions: The represented results prove efficiency of the proposed models. Developed mathematical models can be useful for design of navigation systems of the wide class of moving vehicles.

  13. Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

  14. Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

    2017-03-01

    Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

  15. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  16. Trajectory models and reference frames for crustal motion geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevis, Michael; Brown, Abel

    2014-03-01

    We sketch the evolution of station trajectory models used in crustal motion geodesy over the last several decades, and describe some recent generalizations of these models that allow geodesists and geophysicists to parameterize accelerating patterns of displacement in general, and postseismic transient deformation in particular. Modern trajectory models are composed of three sub-models that represent secular trends, annual oscillations, and instantaneous jumps in coordinate time series. Traditionally the trend model invoked constant station velocity. This can be generalized by assuming that position is a polynomial function of time. The trajectory model can also be augmented as needed, by including one or more logarithmic transients in order to account for typical multi-year patterns of postseismic transient motion. Many geodetic and geophysical research groups are using general classes of trajectory model to characterize their crustal displacement time series, but few if any of them are using these trajectory models to define and realize the terrestrial reference frames (RFs) in which their time series are expressed. We describe a global GPS reanalysis program in which we use two general classes of trajectory model, tuned on a station by station basis. We define the network trajectory model as the set of station trajectory models encompassing every station in the network. We use the network trajectory model from the each global analysis to assign prior position estimates for the next round of GPS data processing. We allow our daily orbital solutions to relax so as to maintain their consistency with the network polyhedron. After several iterations we produce GPS time series expressed in a RF similar to, but not identical with ITRF2008. We find that each iteration produces an improvement in the daily repeatability of our global time series and in the predictive power of our trajectory models.

  17. Business Scenario Evaluation Method Using Monte Carlo Simulation on Qualitative and Quantitative Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samejima, Masaki; Akiyoshi, Masanori; Mitsukuni, Koshichiro; Komoda, Norihisa

    We propose a business scenario evaluation method using qualitative and quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we decide an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models, it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.

  18. Use of Danish Heat Atlas and energy system models for exploring renewable energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2013-01-01

    networks in relation with significant heat saving measures that are capital intensive infrastructure investments require highly detailed decision - support tools. The Heat Atlas for Denmark provides a highly detailed database and includes heat demand and possible heat savings for about 2.5 million...... buildings with associated costs included. Energy systems modelling tools that incorporate economic, environmental, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems are considered crucial for quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as (i) EU 2020 goals...... of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and (ii) Denmark’s 2050 goals of covering entire energy supply by renewable energy. Optimization and simulation energy system models are currently used in Denmark. The present paper tends to provide...

  19. Mooring Design for the Floating Oscillating Water Column Reference Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brefort, Dorian [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    To reduce the price of the reference Backward Bent Duct Buoy (BBDB), a study was done analyzing the effects of reducing the mooring line length, and a new mooring design was developed. It was found that the overall length of the mooring lines could be reduced by 1290 meters, allowing a significant price reduction of the system. In this paper, we will first give a description of the model and the storm environment it will be subject to. We will then give a recommendation for the new mooring system, followed by a discussion of the severe weather simulation results, and an analysis of the conservative and aggressive aspects of the design.

  20. Transformation of equations in analysis of proportionality through referent models

    CERN Document Server

    Romay, E O

    2006-01-01

    In proportionality of objects, samples or populations, usually we work with Z score of proportionality calculated through referent models, instead directly with the variables of the objects in itself. In these studies we have the necessity to transform, the equations that use the variables of the object, in equations that directly use like variables Z score. In the present work a method is developed to transform the parametric equations, in equations in variables Z using like example the studies of human proportionality from the Phantom stratagem of Ross and Wilson.

  1. A full economic analysis of switchgrass under different scenarios in Italy estimated by BEE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monti, A.; Fazio, S.; Venturi, G. [Department of Agroenvironmental Science and Technologies, Bologna (Italy); Lychnaras, V.; Soldatos, P. [Agricultural University of Athens, Athens (Greece). Laboratory of Agribusiness Management

    2007-04-15

    Three different scenarios of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivation (high, mild and low) in two different environmental conditions (North and South Italy) were economically analysed by the computerized model BEE. The dataset was mostly generated from an 8.6 ha field of switchgrass planted in 2002 at the University of Bologna (North Italy). Annual equivalent costs (AEC) and break-even yield (BEY, i.e. the dry matter yield at which cost equals selling price) of each scenario were calculated to assess the feasibility of each scenario. AEC ranged from EUR511 to EUR1.257 ha{sup -1} being always higher in northern than southern regions. As expected, BEY varied to an extent depending on input levels. BEY was clearly higher under intensive cropping systems (H{sub S}) compared to mild-(M{sub S}) and low-input (L{sub S}) scenarios. However, even for M{sub S} or L{sub S}, BEY generally exceeded the harvested yield. Therefore, we can conclude that, at the market price of EUR55 Mg{sup -1} (dry basis), switchgrass can be hardly grown both in North and South Italy. However, the biomass market price appeared surprisingly underestimated if compared to the unit energy price of crude oil, therefore a desirable increase of biomass price could be expected in the next few years. Sensitivity analysis showed that biomass price strongly affects BEY, and this was especially found in H{sub S}. Furthermore, the differences in BEY between L{sub S} and H{sub S} clearly decreased with increasing market prices. Therefore, H{sub S} could be better indicated than L{sub S} at high market prices. Switchgrass was found to be more profitable than some conventional crops to an extent depending on the yield higher than BEY (Y{sub i}). At the current biomass price, Y{sub i} was from less than 1 Mg ha{sup -1} (maize and alfalfa) to more than 4 Mg ha{sup -1} (sugarbeet). (author)

  2. Higgs potential and hidden light Higgs scenario in two Higgs doublet models

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Sanghyeon; Lee, Jong-Phil; Song, Jeonghyeon

    2015-01-01

    In two Higgs doublet models (2HDM), there exists an interesting possibility, the hidden light Higgs scenario, that the discovered SM-like Higgs boson is the heavier CP-even Higgs boson $H^0$ and the lighter CP-even $h^0$ has not been observed yet in any experiment. We study the current status of this scenario in Types I, II, X, and Y, through the scans of the 2HDM parameters with all relevant theoretical and experimental constraints. We employ not only the most up-to-date Higgs signal strength measurements with the feed-down effects, but also all the available LHC exclusion limits from heavy Higgs searches. Adjusting the heavier $H^0$ to the 125 GeV state while hiding the lighter $h^0$ from the LEP Higgs search prohibits the extreme decoupling limit: there exist upper bounds on the masses of the pseudoscalar $A^0$ and the charged Higgs $H^\\pm$ below about 550 GeV. In addition, the $Z_2$ symmetry, which was introduced to avoid the tree-level FCNC, is shown to be a good approximate symmetry since the soft $Z_2$...

  3. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  4. Changes in Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation under Different Atmospheric CO2 Scenarios in a Climate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) because of the increased CO2 in the atmosphere play an important role in future climate regimes.In this article, a new climate model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variation in THC strength, the changes of North Atlantic deep-water (NADW) formation, and the regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increasing atmospheric CO2.From 2000 to 2100, under increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2), the strength of THC decreases by 4 Sv (106 m3/s), 5.1 Sv, and 5.2 Sv, respectively, equivalent to a reduction of 20%, 25%, and 25.1% of the present THC strength.The analyses show that the oceanic deep convective activity significantly strengthens in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway(GIN) Seas owing to saltier (denser) upper oceans, whereas weakens in the Labrador Sea and in the south of the Denmark Strait region (SDSR) because of surface warming and freshening due to global warming.The saltiness of the GIN Seas is mainly caused by the increase of the saline North Atlantic inflow through the Faro-Bank (FB) Channel.Under the scenario A1B, the deep-water formation rate in the North Atlantic decreases from 16.2 Sv to 12.9 Sv with increasing CO2.

  5. Rapid prediction of damage on a struck ship accounting for side impact scenario models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabowo, Aditya Rio; Bae, Dong Myung; Sohn, Jung Min; Zakki, Ahmad Fauzan; Cao, Bo

    2017-04-01

    The impact phenomenon is inseparable part of every physical things, from substantial particle until macrostructure namely ship. In ship collisions, short-period load is distributed during impact process from striking ship into struck ship. The kinetic energy that is used to move striking ship is absorbed by struck ship that makes its structure undergoes plastic deformation and failure. This paper presents study that focuses on predicting occurred damage on side hull of struck ship for various impact scenario models. These scenarios are calculated by finite element approach to obtain characteristic on damage, energy as well as load during and after impact processes. The results indicate that the damages on impact to longitudinal components such as main and car decks are smaller than impact to transverse structure components. The damage and deformation are widely distributed to almost side structures including inner structure. The width between outer and inner shells is very affecting the damage mode where the width below the two meters will make inner shell experience damage beyond plastic deformation. The contribution of structure components is proofed deliver significant effect to damage mode and material strengths clearly affect the results in energy and load characteristic.

  6. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  7. Construction and Evaluation of Scenarios as a Learning Strategy through Modelling-Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available From a systemic perspective and in the context of an increasing generalization in the use of new technologies and the change in the educational paradigm -which emphasizes guided and autonomous learning-, the learning strategy should be routed to join logical reasoning and instrumental skills (software. The inclusion of new computing and communication resources to the learning process turns them into teaching tools, which makes it possible to organize the teaching and learning process in a different way. The design of these new scenarios of study has important implications to the way information is processed, to the different levels of learning (descriptive, explanatory or analytical ones and to the way knowledge is acquired and evaluated. In addition, that design takes into account the greater student-content, student-student and student-teacher interactivities, always emphasizing guided independent learning. Thus, the construction, analysis and evaluation of scenarios through models and simulation are the strategy that best suits the current learning style followed by students.

  8. Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

    2015-12-01

    Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

  9. Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. D. Falloon

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios – the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20, allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario – one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C.

    In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in scrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during winter and spring; small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively and increased global precipitation

  10. A see-saw scenario of an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dinh, Dinh Nguyen; Văn, Phi Quang; Vân, Nguyen Thi Hông

    2016-01-01

    A see-saw scenario for an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model is presented. As before, the see-saw mechanism can be realized in several models of different types depending on different ways of neutrino mass generation corresponding to the introduction of new fields with different symmetry structures. In the present paper, a general desription of all these see-saw types is made with a more detailed investigation on type-I models. As within the original see-saw mechanism, the symmetry structure of the standard model fields decides the number and the symmetry structure of the new fields. In a model considered here, the scalar sector consists of three standard-model-Higgs-like iso-doublets ($SU_L(2)$-doublets) forming an $A_4$ triplet. The latter is a superposition of three mass-eigen states, one of which could be identified with the recently discovered Higgs boson. A possible relation to the still-deliberated 750 GeV diphoton resonance at the 13 TeV LHC collisions is also discussed. In the lepton sector, the ...

  11. Handling Qualities of Model Reference Adaptive Controllers with Varying Complexity for Pitch-Roll Coupled Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Jacob; Hanson, Curt; Johnson, Marcus A.; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    Three model reference adaptive controllers (MRAC) with varying levels of complexity were evaluated on a high performance jet aircraft and compared along with a baseline nonlinear dynamic inversion controller. The handling qualities and performance of the controllers were examined during failure conditions that induce coupling between the pitch and roll axes. Results from flight tests showed with a roll to pitch input coupling failure, the handling qualities went from Level 2 with the baseline controller to Level 1 with the most complex MRAC tested. A failure scenario with the left stabilator frozen also showed improvement with the MRAC. Improvement in performance and handling qualities was generally seen as complexity was incrementally added; however, added complexity usually corresponds to increased verification and validation effort required for certification. The tradeoff between complexity and performance is thus important to a controls system designer when implementing an adaptive controller on an aircraft. This paper investigates this relation through flight testing of several controllers of vary complexity.

  12. Modelling agricultural suitability along soil transects under current conditions and improved scenario of soil factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Fleskens, Luuk; van der Ploeg, Martine; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Anaya-Romero, María; van der Salm, Renée J.; De la Rosa, Diego

    2015-04-01

    Agricultural land suitability analysis and improvement of soils by addressing major limitations may be a strategy for climate change adaptation. This study aims to investigate the influence of topography and variability of soil factors on the suitability of 12 annual, semiannual and perennial Mediterranean crops in the province of Seville (southern Spain). In order to represent the variability in elevation, lithology and soil, two latitudinal and longitudinal (S-N and W-E) soil transects (TA and TB) were considered including 63 representative points at regular 4 km intervals. These points were represented by 41 soil profiles from the SDBm soil database -Seville. Almagra model, a component of the agro-ecological decision support system MicroLEIS, was used to assess soil suitability. Results were grouped into five soil suitability classes: S1-optimum, S2-high, S3-moderate, S4-marginal and S5-not suitable. Each class was divided in subclasses according to the main soil limiting factors: depth (p), texture (t), drainage (d), carbonate content (c), salinity (s), sodium saturation (a), and the degree of development of the soil profile (g). This research also aimed to maximize soil potential by improving limiting factors d, c, s and a after soil restoration. Therefore, management techniques were also considered as possible scenarios in this study. The results of the evaluation showed that soil suitability ranged between S1 and S5p - S5s along of the transects. In the northern extreme of transect TA, high content of gravels and coarse texture are limiting factors (soils are classified as S4t) In contrast, the limiting factor in the eastern extreme of transect TB is the shallow useful depth (S5p subclass). The absence of calcium carbonate becomes a limiting factor in some parts of TA. In contrast, the excessive content of calcium carbonate appeared to be a limiting factor for crops in some intermediate points of TB transect. For both transects, soil salinity is the main

  13. Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Calise

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations. In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass.

  14. Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in

  15. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  16. High resolution multi model Climate change scenario over India including first uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.; Wiltshire, A.; Asharaf, S.; Ahrens, B.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Christensen, J. H.; Gobiet, A.; Saeed, F.; Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D.

    2011-12-01

    This study presents the possible regional climate change over SA with a focus over India as simulated by three very-high-resolution regional climate models. The models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions from two global models (ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) under the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario at horizontal resolution of ~25km, except one model which is simulated for only one GCM. The results are presented for two time slices 2021-2050 and 2070-2099. The analysis concentrates along precipitation and temperature over land and focuses mainly on the monsoon season. The circulation parameter is also discussed. In general all models show a clear signal of gradual wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming evident at the end of 2050 is 1-2K, whereas it is 3-5K at the end of century. The projected pattern of the precipitation change shows spatial variability. The increase in precipitation is noticed over peninsular and coastal areas and no change or decrease over areas away from the ocean. The influence of the driving GCM on projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one GCM. Some results of the first uncertainties assessment are also presented.

  17. Comparative evaluation of spectroscopic models using different multivariate statistical tools in a multicancer scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanate, A D; Kothiwale, S; Singh, S P; Bertrand, Dominique; Krishna, C Murali

    2011-02-01

    Cancer is now recognized as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality. Histopathological diagnosis, the gold standard, is shown to be subjective, time consuming, prone to interobserver disagreement, and often fails to predict prognosis. Optical spectroscopic methods are being contemplated as adjuncts or alternatives to conventional cancer diagnostics. The most important aspect of these approaches is their objectivity, and multivariate statistical tools play a major role in realizing it. However, rigorous evaluation of the robustness of spectral models is a prerequisite. The utility of Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis of cancers has been well established. Until now, the specificity and applicability of spectral models have been evaluated for specific cancer types. In this study, we have evaluated the utility of spectroscopic models representing normal and malignant tissues of the breast, cervix, colon, larynx, and oral cavity in a broader perspective, using different multivariate tests. The limit test, which was used in our earlier study, gave high sensitivity but suffered from poor specificity. The performance of other methods such as factorial discriminant analysis and partial least square discriminant analysis are at par with more complex nonlinear methods such as decision trees, but they provide very little information about the classification model. This comparative study thus demonstrates not just the efficacy of Raman spectroscopic models but also the applicability and limitations of different multivariate tools for discrimination under complex conditions such as the multicancer scenario.

  18. Comparative evaluation of spectroscopic models using different multivariate statistical tools in a multicancer scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanate, A. D.; Kothiwale, S.; Singh, S. P.; Bertrand, Dominique; Krishna, C. Murali

    2011-02-01

    Cancer is now recognized as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality. Histopathological diagnosis, the gold standard, is shown to be subjective, time consuming, prone to interobserver disagreement, and often fails to predict prognosis. Optical spectroscopic methods are being contemplated as adjuncts or alternatives to conventional cancer diagnostics. The most important aspect of these approaches is their objectivity, and multivariate statistical tools play a major role in realizing it. However, rigorous evaluation of the robustness of spectral models is a prerequisite. The utility of Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis of cancers has been well established. Until now, the specificity and applicability of spectral models have been evaluated for specific cancer types. In this study, we have evaluated the utility of spectroscopic models representing normal and malignant tissues of the breast, cervix, colon, larynx, and oral cavity in a broader perspective, using different multivariate tests. The limit test, which was used in our earlier study, gave high sensitivity but suffered from poor specificity. The performance of other methods such as factorial discriminant analysis and partial least square discriminant analysis are at par with more complex nonlinear methods such as decision trees, but they provide very little information about the classification model. This comparative study thus demonstrates not just the efficacy of Raman spectroscopic models but also the applicability and limitations of different multivariate tools for discrimination under complex conditions such as the multicancer scenario.

  19. Scenarios of Local Tsunamis in the China Seas by Boussinesq Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵曦; 刘桦; 王本龙

    2014-01-01

    The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runup in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea.

  20. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian;

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  1. A conceptual model of oceanic heat transport in the Snowball Earth scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comeau, Darin; Kurtze, Douglas A.; Restrepo, Juan M.

    2016-12-01

    Geologic evidence suggests that the Earth may have been completely covered in ice in the distant past, a state known as Snowball Earth. This is still the subject of controversy, and has been the focus of modeling work from low-dimensional models up to state-of-the-art general circulation models. In our present global climate, the ocean plays a large role in redistributing heat from the equatorial regions to high latitudes, and as an important part of the global heat budget, its role in the initiation a Snowball Earth, and the subsequent climate, is of great interest. To better understand the role of oceanic heat transport in the initiation of Snowball Earth, and the resulting global ice covered climate state, the goal of this inquiry is twofold: we wish to propose the least complex model that can capture the Snowball Earth scenario as well as the present-day climate with partial ice cover, and we want to determine the relative importance of oceanic heat transport. To do this, we develop a simple model, incorporating thermohaline dynamics from traditional box ocean models, a radiative balance from energy balance models, and the more contemporary "sea glacier" model to account for viscous flow effects of extremely thick sea ice. The resulting model, consisting of dynamic ocean and ice components, is able to reproduce both Snowball Earth and present-day conditions through reasonable changes in forcing parameters. We find that including or neglecting oceanic heat transport may lead to vastly different global climate states, and also that the parameterization of under-ice heat transfer in the ice-ocean coupling plays a key role in the resulting global climate state, demonstrating the regulatory effect of dynamic ocean heat transport.

  2. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  3. Seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar: Earthquake model database, ground-motion scenarios, and probabilistic assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Thant, M.; Maung Maung, P.; Sieh, K.

    2015-12-01

    We have constructed an earthquake and fault database, conducted a series of ground-shaking scenarios, and proposed seismic hazard maps for all of Myanmar and hazard curves for selected cities. Our earthquake database integrates the ISC, ISC-GEM and global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, and includes harmonized magnitude scales without duplicate events. Our active fault database includes active fault data from previous studies. Using the parameters from these updated databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and the elapse time of last events), we have determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the modelled ground motions to the felt intensities of earthquakes. Through the case of the 1975 Bagan earthquake, we determined that Atkinson and Moore's (2003) scenario using the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) fits the behaviours of the subduction events best. Also, the 2011 Tarlay and 2012 Thabeikkyin events suggested the GMPEs of Akkar and Cagnan (2010) fit crustal earthquakes best. We thus incorporated the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions based on Vs30 (the average shear-velocity down to 30 m depth) from analysis of topographic slope and microtremor array measurements to assess seismic hazard. The hazard is highest in regions close to the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar as seismic sources there have earthquakes occur at short intervals and/or last events occurred a long time ago. The hazard curves for the cities of Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or with a low Vs30, e.g., the downtown of Sagaing and Shwemawdaw Pagoda in Bago.

  4. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  5. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  6. Properties of Closed-Loop Reference Models in Adaptive Control: Part I Full States Accessible

    CERN Document Server

    Gibson, Travis E; Lavretsky, Eugene

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the properties of adaptive systems with closed-loop reference models. Historically, reference models in adaptive systems run open-loop in parallel with the plant and controller, using no information from the plant or controller to alter the trajectory of the reference system. Closed-loop reference models on the other hand use information from the plant to alter the reference trajectory. We show that closed-loop reference models have one more free design parameter as compared to their open-loop counterparts. Using the extra design freedom, we study closed--loop reference models and their impact on transient response and robustness in adaptive systems.

  7. Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettin, Thomas S.; Cottingham, Robert W.; Griffith, Shelton D.; Quest, Daniel J.

    2015-09-08

    A system and method of integrating diverse sources of data and data streams is presented. The method can include selecting a scenario based on a topic, creating a multi-relational directed graph based on the scenario, identifying and converting resources in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the resources, identifying data feeds in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the data feeds, identifying analytical routines in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph using the analytical routines and identifying data outputs in accordance with the scenario and defining queries to produce the data outputs from the multi-directed graph.

  8. Reference Model 2: %22Rev 0%22 Rotor Design.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barone, Matthew F.; Berg, Jonathan Charles; Griffith, Daniel

    2011-12-01

    The preliminary design for a three-bladed cross-flow rotor for a reference marine hydrokinetic turbine is presented. A rotor performance design code is described, along with modifications to the code to allow prediction of blade support strut drag as well as interference between two counter-rotating rotors. The rotor is designed to operate in a reference site corresponding to a riverine environment. Basic rotor performance and rigid-body loads calculations are performed to size the rotor elements and select the operating speed range. The preliminary design is verified with a simple finite element model that provides estimates of bending stresses during operation. A concept for joining the blades and support struts is developed and analyzed with a separate finite element analysis. Rotor mass, production costs, and annual energy capture are estimated in order to allow calculations of system cost-of-energy. Evaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Pdf.Kit. Copyright 2002-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd Evaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Pdf.Kit. Copyright 2002-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd

  9. Testing and reference model analysis of FTTH system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiancheng; Cui, Wanlong; Chen, Ying

    2009-08-01

    With rapid development of Internet and broadband access network, the technologies of xDSL, FTTx+LAN , WLAN have more applications, new network service emerges in endless stream, especially the increase of network game, meeting TV, video on demand, etc. FTTH supports all present and future service with enormous bandwidth, including traditional telecommunication service, traditional data service and traditional TV service, and the future digital TV and VOD. With huge bandwidth of FTTH, it wins the final solution of broadband network, becomes the final goal of development of optical access network.. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) will be the goal of telecommunications cable broadband access. In accordance with the development trend of telecommunication services, to enhance the capacity of integrated access network, to achieve triple-play (voice, data, image), based on the existing optical Fiber to the curb (FTTC), Fiber To The Zone (FTTZ), Fiber to the Building (FTTB) user optical cable network, the optical fiber can extend to the FTTH system of end-user by using EPON technology. The article first introduced the basic components of FTTH system; and then explain the reference model and reference point for testing of the FTTH system; Finally, by testing connection diagram, the testing process, expected results, primarily analyze SNI Interface Testing, PON interface testing, Ethernet performance testing, UNI interface testing, Ethernet functional testing, PON functional testing, equipment functional testing, telephone functional testing, operational support capability testing and so on testing of FTTH system. ...

  10. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  11. Unified composite scenario for inflation and dark matter in the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channuie, Phongpichit; Xiong, Chi

    2017-02-01

    In this work, we propose a cosmological scenario inherently based on the effective Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model that cosmic inflation and dark matter can be successfully described by a single framework. On the one hand, the scalar channel of the NJL model plays a role of the composite inflaton (CI) and we show that it is viable to achieve successful inflation via a nonminimal coupling to gravity. For model of inflation, we compute the inflationary parameters and confront them with recent Planck 2015 data. We discover that the predictions of the model are in excellent agreement with the Planck analysis. We also present in our model a simple connection of physics from the high scales to low scales via renormalization group equations (RGEs) of the physical parameters and use them to estimate the range of relevant parameters. On the other hand, the pseudoscalar channel can be assigned as a candidate for composite dark matter (CD). For a model of dark matter, we couple the pseudoscalar to the Higgs sector of the standard model with the coupling strength κ and estimate its thermally averaged relic abundance. We discover that the CD mass is strongly sensitive to the coupling κ . We find in case of light CD, Msvalue of its mass Ms˜61 GeV for κ =0.1 . However, in this case the CD mass can be lighter when the coupling is getting larger. Moreover, in case of heavy CD, Ms>MW ,Z (or >Mh), the required relic abundance can be satisfied for value of the CD mass Ms˜410 GeV for κ =0.5 . In contradiction to the light mass case, however, the CD mass in this case can even be heavier when the coupling is getting larger.

  12. Loss Estimation Modeling Of Scenario Lahars From Mount Rainier, Washington State, Using HAZUS-MH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, T. J.; Cakir, R.

    2011-12-01

    We have adapted lahar hazard zones developed by Hoblitt and others (1998) and converted to digital data by Schilling and others (2008) into the appropriate format for HAZUS-MH, which is FEMA's loss estimation model. We assume that structures engulfed by cohesive lahars will suffer complete loss, and structures affected by post-lahar flooding will be appropriately modeled by the HAZUS-MH flood model. Another approach investigated is to estimate the momentum of lahars, calculate a lateral force, and apply the earthquake model, substituting the lahar lateral force for PGA. Our initial model used the HAZUS default data, which include estimates of building type and value from census data. This model estimated a loss of about 12 billion for a repeat lahar similar to the Electron Mudflow down the Puyallup River. Because HAZUS data are based on census tracts, this estimated damage includes everything in the census tract, even buildings outside of the lahar hazard zone. To correct this, we acquired assessors data from all of the affected counties and converted them into HAZUS format. We then clipped it to the boundaries of the lahar hazard zone to more precisely delineate those properties actually at risk in each scenario. This refined our initial loss estimate to about 6 billion with exclusion of building content values. We are also investigating rebuilding the lahar hazard zones applying Lahar-Z to a more accurate topographic grid derived from recent Lidar data acquired from the Puget Sound Lidar Consortium and Mount Rainier National Park. Final results of these models for the major drainages of Mount Rainier will be posted to the Washington Interactive Geologic Map (http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeosciencesData/Pages/geology_portal.aspx).

  13. Thermophysics modeling of an infrared detector cryochamber for transient operational scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singhal, Mayank; Singhal, Gaurav; Verma, Avinash C.; Kumar, Sushil; Singh, Manmohan

    2016-05-01

    An infrared detector (IR) is essentially a transducer capable of converting radiant energy in the infrared regime into a measurable form. The benefit of infrared radiation is that it facilitates viewing objects in dark or through obscured conditions by detecting the infrared energy emitted by them. One of the most significant applications of IR detector systems is for target acquisition and tracking of projectile systems. IR detectors also find widespread applications in the industry and commercial market. The performance of infrared detector is sensitive to temperatures and performs best when cooled to cryogenic temperatures in the range of nearly 120 K. However, the necessity to operate in such cryogenic regimes increases the complexity in the application of IR detectors. This entails a need for detailed thermophysics analysis to be able to determine the actual cooling load specific to the application and also due to its interaction with the environment. This will enable design of most appropriate cooling methodologies suitable for specific scenarios. The focus of the present work is to develop a robust thermo-physical numerical methodology for predicting IR cryochamber behavior under transient conditions, which is the most critical scenario, taking into account all relevant heat loads including radiation in its original form. The advantage of the developed code against existing commercial software (COMSOL, ANSYS, etc.), is that it is capable of handling gas conduction together with radiation terms effectively, employing a ubiquitous software such as MATLAB. Also, it requires much smaller computational resources and is significantly less time intensive. It provides physically correct results enabling thermal characterization of cryochamber geometry in conjunction with appropriate cooling methodology. The code has been subsequently validated experimentally as the observed cooling characteristics are found to be in close agreement with the results predicted using

  14. Atmospheric Transport Modelling and Radionuclide Analysis for the NPE 2015 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, J. Ole; Bollhöfer, Andreas; Heidmann, Verena; Krais, Roman; Schlosser, Clemens; Gestermann, Nicolai; Ceranna, Lars

    2017-04-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. The International Monitoring System (IMS) is in place and at about 90% complete to verify compliance with the CTBT. The stations of the waveform technologies are capable to detect seismic, hydro-acoustic and infrasonic signals for detection, localization, and characterization of explosions. For practicing Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification procedures and interplay between the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centres (NDC), prepardness exercises (NPE) are regularly performed with selected events of fictitious CTBT-violation. The German NDC's expertise for radionuclide analyses and operation of station RN33 is provided by the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) while Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) for CTBT purposes is performed at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) for the combination of the radionuclide findings with waveform evidence. The radionuclide part of the NPE 2015 scenario is tackled in a joint effort by BfS and BGR. First, the NPE 2015 spectra are analysed, fission products are identified, and respective activity concentrations are derived. Special focus is on isotopic ratios which allow for source characterization and event timing. For atmospheric backtracking the binary coincidence method is applied for both, SRS fields from IDC and WMO-RSMC, and for in-house backward simulations in higher resolution for the first affected samples. Results are compared with the WebGrape PSR and the spatio-temporal domain with high atmospheric release probability is determined. The ATM results together with the radionuclide fingerprint are used for identification of waveform candidate events. Comparative forward simulations of atmospheric dispersion for candidate events are performed. Finally the overall consistency of various source scenarios is assessed and a fictitious government briefing on

  15. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  16. On a mean field game optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in human crowds

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2013-12-01

    The understanding of fast exit and evacuation situations in crowd motion research has received a lot of scientific interest in the last decades. Security issues in larger facilities, like shopping malls, sports centers, or festivals necessitate a better understanding of the major driving forces in crowd dynamics. In this paper we present an optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in pedestrian crowds. The model is formulated in the framework of mean field games and based on a parabolic optimal control problem. We consider the case of a large human crowd trying to exit a room as fast as possible. The motion of every pedestrian is determined by minimizing a cost functional, which depends on his/her position and velocity, the overall density of people, and the time to exit. This microscopic setup leads in a mean-field formulation to a nonlinear macroscopic optimal control problem, which raises challenging questions for the analysis and numerical simulations.We discuss different aspects of the mathematical modeling and illustrate them with various computational results. ©2013 IEEE.

  17. Hydrodynamic Lyapunov modes and strong stochasticity threshold in the dynamic XY model: an alternative scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong-Liu; Radons, Günter

    2008-01-01

    Crossover from weak to strong chaos in high-dimensional Hamiltonian systems at the strong stochasticity threshold (SST) was anticipated to indicate a global transition in the geometric structure of phase space. Our recent study of Fermi-Pasta-Ulam models showed that corresponding to this transition the energy density dependence of all Lyapunov exponents is identical apart from a scaling factor. The current investigation of the dynamic XY model discovers an alternative scenario for the energy dependence of the system dynamics at SSTs. Though similar in tendency, the Lyapunov exponents now show individually different energy dependencies except in the near-harmonic regime. Such a finding restricts the use of indices such as the largest Lyapunov exponent and the Ricci curvatures to characterize the global transition in the dynamics of high-dimensional Hamiltonian systems. These observations are consistent with our conjecture that the quasi-isotropy assumption works well only when parametric resonances are the dominant sources of dynamical instabilities. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate the existence of hydrodynamical Lyapunov modes (HLMs) in the dynamic XY model and show that corresponding to the crossover in the Lyapunov exponents there is also a smooth transition in the energy density dependence of significance measures of HLMs. In particular, our numerical results confirm that strong chaos is essential for the appearance of HLMs.

  18. A MODEL TO EVALUATE 100-YEAR ENERGY-MIX SCENARIOS TO FACILITATE DEEP DECARBONIZATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adkisson, Mary A [ORNL; Qualls, A L [ORNL

    2016-08-01

    The Southeast United States consumes approximately one billion megawatt-hours of electricity annually; roughly two-thirds from carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting sources. The balance is produced by non-CO2 emitting sources: nuclear power, hydroelectric power, and other renewables. Approximately 40% of the total CO2 emissions come from the electric grid. The CO2 emitting sources, coal, natural gas, and petroleum, produce approximately 372 million metric tons of CO2 annually. The rest is divided between the transportation sector (36%), the industrial sector (20%), the residential sector (3%), and the commercial sector (2%). An Energy Mix Modeling Analysis (EMMA) tool was developed to evaluate 100-year energy mix strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the southeast. Current energy sector data was gathered and used to establish a 2016 reference baseline. The spreadsheet-based calculation runs 100-year scenarios based on current nuclear plant expiration dates, assumed electrical demand changes from the grid, assumed renewable power increases and efficiency gains, and assumed rates of reducing coal generation and deployment of new nuclear reactors. Within the model, natural gas electrical generation is calculated to meet any demand not met by other sources. Thus, natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source that produces less CO2 than coal until non-CO2 emitting sources can be brought online. The annual production of CO2 and spent nuclear fuel and the natural gas consumed are calculated and summed. A progression of eight preliminary scenarios show that nuclear power can substantially reduce or eliminate demand for natural gas within 100 years if it is added at a rate of only 1000 MWe per year. Any increases in renewable energy or efficiency gains can offset the need for nuclear power. However, using nuclear power to reduce CO2 will result in significantly more spent fuel. More efficient advanced reactors can only marginally reduce the amount of spent fuel generated in

  19. Land use scenarios simulation based on the CLUE-S model of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Qingwen; Liu, Guang; Li, Lei; He, Chengxin; Huang, Yuqing; Yao, Yuefeng

    2016-11-01

    The relationship between government policy and land use change is very important, which can provide important information for understanding of land use change and for helping in development of sustainable policy. Returning Farmland to Forest Program is simulated by the CLUE-S model. Land use maps in 1993, 2006, 2010 and 2015 in Lijiang River Basin are interpreted based on remote sensing change from 1993 to 2025 under two scenarios (i.e., Natural Growth Scenarios, Government Intervention Scenarios). In the “Natural Growth Scenarios”, the area of construction land and cultivated land are increased, the others are decreased. In the “Government Intervention Scenarios”, the area of construction land, woodland, cultivated land, and water are increased, the others is in declined. The compared results of two scenarios provide a scientific support for the government policy in the Lijiang River Basin.

  20. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-02-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

  1. Reference respiratory waveforms by minimum jerk model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anetai, Yusuke, E-mail: anetai@radonc.med.osaka-u.ac.jp; Sumida, Iori; Takahashi, Yutaka; Yagi, Masashi; Mizuno, Hirokazu; Ogawa, Kazuhiko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Yamadaoka 2-2, Suita-shi, Osaka 565-0871 (Japan); Ota, Seiichi [Department of Medical Technology, Osaka University Hospital, Yamadaoka 2-15, Suita-shi, Osaka 565-0871 (Japan)

    2015-09-15

    Purpose: CyberKnife{sup ®} robotic surgery system has the ability to deliver radiation to a tumor subject to respiratory movements using Synchrony{sup ®} mode with less than 2 mm tracking accuracy. However, rapid and rough motion tracking causes mechanical tracking errors and puts mechanical stress on the robotic joint, leading to unexpected radiation delivery errors. During clinical treatment, patient respiratory motions are much more complicated, suggesting the need for patient-specific modeling of respiratory motion. The purpose of this study was to propose a novel method that provides a reference respiratory wave to enable smooth tracking for each patient. Methods: The minimum jerk model, which mathematically derives smoothness by means of jerk, or the third derivative of position and the derivative of acceleration with respect to time that is proportional to the time rate of force changed was introduced to model a patient-specific respiratory motion wave to provide smooth motion tracking using CyberKnife{sup ®}. To verify that patient-specific minimum jerk respiratory waves were being tracked smoothly by Synchrony{sup ®} mode, a tracking laser projection from CyberKnife{sup ®} was optically analyzed every 0.1 s using a webcam and a calibrated grid on a motion phantom whose motion was in accordance with three pattern waves (cosine, typical free-breathing, and minimum jerk theoretical wave models) for the clinically relevant superior–inferior directions from six volunteers assessed on the same node of the same isocentric plan. Results: Tracking discrepancy from the center of the grid to the beam projection was evaluated. The minimum jerk theoretical wave reduced the maximum-peak amplitude of radial tracking discrepancy compared with that of the waveforms modeled by cosine and typical free-breathing model by 22% and 35%, respectively, and provided smooth tracking for radial direction. Motion tracking constancy as indicated by radial tracking discrepancy

  2. Model-reference robust tuning of PID controllers

    CERN Document Server

    Alfaro, Victor M

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a unified methodology for the design of PID controllers that encompasses the wide range of different dynamics to be found in industrial processes. This is extended to provide a coherent way of dealing with the tuning of PID controllers. The particular method at the core of the book is the so-called model-reference robust tuning (MoReRT), developed by the authors. MoReRT constitutes a novel and powerful way of thinking of a robust design and taking into account the usual design trade-offs encountered in any control design problem. The book starts by presenting the different two-degree-of-freedom PID control algorithm variations and their conversion relations as well as the indexes used for performance, robustness and fragility evaluation:the bases of the proposed model. Secondly, the MoReRT design methodology and normalized controlled process models and controllers used in the design are described in order to facilitate the formulation of the different design problems and subsequent derivati...

  3. Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

  4. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  5. The West Central Alberta Woodland Caribou Landscape Plan: Using a Modeling Approach to Develop Alternative Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Hubbs

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus are classified as threatened in Alberta. In support of Canada's Species at Risk Act, a Recovery Plan for Woodland Caribou in Alberta was completed in 2004 which required local implementation plans to be completed within 5 areas of the province. The West Central Alberta Caribou Landscape Plan (WCCLP is the first of these to be initiated and it addresses the recovery strategies for 4 herds. Two aspatial computer models built on the STELLA© modelling platform (ISee Systems, 2007 were used to assist the planning team in evaluating cumulative effects and alternative scenarios for caribou conservation. The ALCES© (Forem Technologies 2008 modelling tool was used to forecast potential changes in the west central Alberta landscape over time. Yearly landscape condition outputs from ALCES© were then exported into a caribou-specific population model, REMUS© (Weclaw, 2004, that was used to project potential population responses by woodland caribou, other primary prey species [moose (Alces alces, elk (Cervus elaphus and deer (Odocoileus sp.] and wolves (Canis lupus (Weclaw & Hudson, 2004. Simulated habitat management strategies that resulted in the highest likelihood of caribou recovery included the maintenance of a high proportion of old forest, the aggregation of industrial footprints and the reclamation of historic seismic lines (although the latter took decades to provide real dividends. Sharing of industrial roads, protection of fragments of old-growth, and expanding an already aggressive fire control strategy in Alberta had little additional effect on caribou recovery. Simulated population management strategies that were successful all involved decades of intensive wolf control, either directly or indirectly through intensive primary prey control (with the exception of woodland caribou until old-growth forests recovered to densities that provided caribou habitat and decreased alternate prey of wolves. Although

  6. Evaluation of a large-scale forest scenario model in heterogeneous forests: a case study for Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thürig, E.; Schelhaas, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Large-scale forest scenario models are widely used to simulate the development of forests and to compare the carbon balance estimates of different countries. However, as site variability in the application area often exceeds the variability in the calibration area, model validation is important. The

  7. Integrated analysis of landscape management scenarios using state and transition models in the upper Grande Ronde River subbasin, Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Allison Reger; Barbara. Wales

    2007-01-01

    We modeled the integrated effects of natural disturbances and management activities for three disturbance scenarios on a 178 000-ha landscape in the upper Grande Ronde subbasin of northeast Oregon. The landscape included three forest environments (warm-dry, cool-moist, and cold) as well as a mixture of publicly and privately owned lands. Our models were state and...

  8. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  9. Improving NPP availability using thermalhydraulic integral plant models. Assessment and application of turbine run back scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reventos, F. [ANACNV, l' Hospitalet de l' Infant, Tarragona (Spain)]|[Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Llopis, C.; Pretel, C. [Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Posada, J.M.; Moreno, P. [Pablo Moreno S.A. (Spain)

    2001-07-01

    ANAV is the utility responsible of Asco and Vandellos Nuclear Power Plants, a two-unit and a single unit 1000 MW PWR plant, respectively. Both plants, Asco and Vandellos, are in normal operation since 1983 and 1987 and have undergone different important improvements like: steam generators and turbine substitution, power up-rating... Best estimate simulation by means of the thermal-hydraulic integral models of operating nuclear power plants are today impressively helpful for utilities in their purpose of improving availability and keeping safety level. ANAV is currently using Relap5/mod3.2 models of both plants for different purposes related to safety, operation, engineering and training. Turbine run-back system is designed to avoid reactor trips, and it does so in the existing plants, when the key parameters are correctly adjusted. The fine adjustment of such parameters was traditionally performed following the results of control simulators. Such simulators used a fully developed set of control equations and a quite simplified thermal-hydraulic feed-back. Boundary scenarios were considered in order to overcome the difficulties generated by simplification. (author)

  10. MOSES – A modelling tool for the analysis of scenarios of the European electricity supply system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agert C.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that a transition of the current power supply system in Europe to a system almost entirely based on fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES by mid-century is possible. However, most of these scenarios require a significant amount of back-up power capacities to ensure the security of electricity supply. This would imply high additional investments and operating costs. Hence, alternative options should be investigated first. Here we present a first outlook of our simulation model MOSES which will be able to analyse different target states of the European electricity system in 2050. In this model long-term meteorological data series are used to optimise the capacity mix of RES in Europe. One of the main elements of our tool is a simplified electricity network. In addition, alternative options for reduction of additional back-up power like the expansion of the transmission grid, the use of demand-side management and/or the installation of over-capacities will be implemented. The results will be used to provide scientifically proven recommendations to policy makers for a reliable energy supply system in Europe based on Renewable Energy Sources.

  11. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  12. Preface: International Reference Ionosphere - Progress in Ionospheric Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza Dieter; Reinisch, Bodo

    2010-01-01

    The international reference ionosphere (lRI) is the internationally recommended empirical model for the specification of ionospheric parameters supported by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and recognized by the International Standardization Organization (ISO). IRI is being continually improved by a team of international experts as new data become available and better models are being developed. This issue chronicles the latest phase of model updates as reported during two IRI-related meetings. The first was a special session during the Scientific Assembly of the Committee of Space Research (COSPAR) in Montreal, Canada in July 2008 and the second was an IRI Task Force Activity at the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs in May 2009. This work led to several improvements and additions of the model which will be included in the next version, IRI-201O. The issue is divided into three sections focusing on the improvements made in the topside ionosphere, the F-peak, and the lower ionosphere, respectively. This issue would not have been possible without the reviewing efforts of many individuals. Each paper was reviewed by two referees. We thankfully acknowledge the contribution to this issue made by the following reviewers: Jacob Adeniyi, David Altadill, Eduardo Araujo, Feza Arikan, Dieter Bilitza, Jilijana Cander, Bela Fejer, Tamara Gulyaeva, Manuel Hermindez-Pajares, Ivan Kutiev, John MacDougal, Leo McNamara, Bruno Nava, Olivier Obrou, Elijah Oyeyemi, Vadym Paznukhov, Bodo Reinisch, John Retterer, Phil Richards, Gary Sales, J.H. Sastri, Ludger Scherliess, Iwona Stanislavska, Stamir Stankov, Shin-Yi Su, Manlian Zhang, Y ongliang Zhang, and Irina Zakharenkova. We are grateful to Peggy Ann Shea for her final review and guidance as the editor-in-chief for special issues of Advances in Space Research. We thank the authors for their timely submission and their quick response to the reviewer comments and humbly

  13. Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

  14. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  15. Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G3 and G4 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdahl, Mira; Robock, Alan; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C.; Jones, Andy; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo

    2014-02-01

    We analyzed output from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project for the two most "realistic" scenarios, which use the representative concentration pathway of 4.5 Wm-2 by 2100 (RCP4.5) as the control run and inject sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. The first experiment, G3, is specified to keep RCP4.5 top of atmosphere net radiation at 2020 values by injection of sulfate aerosols, and the second, G4, injects 5 Tg SO2 per year. We ask whether geoengineering by injection of sulfate aerosols into the lower stratosphere from the years 2020 to 2070 is able to prevent the demise of Northern Hemispere minimum annual sea ice extent or slow spring Northern Hemispere snow cover loss. We show that in all available models, despite geoengineering efforts, September sea ice extents still decrease from 2020 to 2070, although not as quickly as in RCP4.5. In two of five models, total September ice loss occurs before 2060. Spring snow extent is increased from 2020 to 2070 compared to RCP4.5 although there is still a negative trend in 3 of 4 models. Because of the climate system lag in responding to the existing radiative forcing, to stop Arctic sea ice and snow from continuing to melt, the imposed forcing would have to be large enough to also counteract the existing radiative imbalance. After the cessation of sulfate aerosol injection in 2070, the climate system rebounds to the warmer RCP4.5 state quickly, and thus, any sea ice or snow retention as a result of geoengineering is lost within a decade.

  16. The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Chong-Hai; XU Ying

    2012-01-01

    Climate changes in 21st century China are described based on the projections of 11 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China under the RCP scenarios, with the northern regions showing greater warming than the southern regions. The warming tendency from 2011 to 2100 is 0.06°C/10 a for RCP2.6, 0.24°C/10 a for RCP4.5, and 0.63°C/10 a for RCP8.5. The projected time series of annual temperature have similar variation tendencies as the new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario pathways, and the warming under the lower emission scenarios is less than under the higher emission scenarios. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, and the increasing precipitation in the northern regions is significant and greater than in the southern regions in China. It is noted that precipitation will tend to decrease in the southern parts of China during the period of 2011–2040, especially under RCP8.5. Compared with the changes over the globe and some previous projections, the increased warming and precipitation over China is more remarkable under the higher emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the projection are unavoidable, and further analyses are necessary to develop a better understanding of the future changes over the region.

  17. Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swetnam, R D; Fisher, B; Mbilinyi, B P; Munishi, P K T; Willcock, S; Ricketts, T; Mwakalila, S; Balmford, A; Burgess, N D; Marshall, A R; Lewis, S L

    2011-03-01

    We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.

  18. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation.

  19. Regional groundwater flow model for a glaciation scenario. Simpevarp subarea - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaquet, O.; Siegel, P. [Colenco Power Engineering Ltd, Baden-Daettwil (Switzerland)

    2006-10-15

    A groundwater flow model (glaciation model) was developed at a regional scale in order to study long term transient effects related to a glaciation scenario likely to occur in response to climatic changes. Conceptually the glaciation model was based on the regional model of Simpevarp and was then extended to a mega-regional scale (of several hundred kilometres) in order to account for the effects of the ice sheet. These effects were modelled using transient boundary conditions provided by a dynamic ice sheet model describing the phases of glacial build-up, glacial completeness and glacial retreat needed for the glaciation scenario. The results demonstrate the strong impact of the ice sheet on the flow field, in particular during the phases of the build-up and the retreat of the ice sheet. These phases last for several thousand years and may cause large amounts of melt water to reach the level of the repository and below. The highest fluxes of melt water are located in the vicinity of the ice margin. As the ice sheet approaches the repository location, the advective effects gain dominance over diffusive effects in the flow field. In particular, up-coning effects are likely to occur at the margin of the ice sheet leading to potential increases in salinity at repository level. For the base case, the entire salinity field of the model is almost completely flushed out at the end of the glaciation period. The flow patterns are strongly governed by the location of the conductive features in the subglacial layer. The influence of these glacial features is essential for the salinity distribution as is their impact on the flow trajectories and, therefore, on the resulting performance measures. Travel times and F-factor were calculated using the method of particle tracking. Glacial effects cause major consequences on the results. In particular, average travel times from the repository to the surface are below 10 a during phases of glacial build-up and retreat. In comparison

  20. Modelling future fire probability in the Brazilian Amazon under different land-use and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Marisa; Alves, Lincoln; Aguiar, Ana Paula; Anderson, Liana; Aragão, Luiz

    2017-04-01

    Climate and land-use change are expected to amplify fire incidence in the Amazon. Modelling the influence of land-use and climate change scenarios on fire occurrence is therefore important to better understand their impacts on the carbon emissions and ecosystems' degradation in the region. Here we use the Maximum Entropy method (MaxEnt) to estimate the impact of different climate and land-use change scenarios on the relative fire probability (RFP) during the 2071-2099 period in the Brazilian Amazon with a 0.25° spatial resolution. The model was calibrated using satellite-based fire detections during the 2006-2015 period (hereafter "baseline"). The land-use change variables were obtained considering alternative pathways of clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation and old growth forest degradation resulting from major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental dynamics in the region. The climatic variables were generated using a regional model (ETA) nested in an earth system global model (HadGEM2-ES). A land-use "sustainability" scenario considering that institutional and political conditions would favour the increase in forest regeneration and decrease of the old growth forest degradation and clear-cut deforestation rates was combined with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 climatic scenario (hereafter SUST-4.5). To access the worst-case scenario of fire incidence, a "fragmentation" land-use scenario, representing the opposite tendency of the "sustainability" conditions, was combined with the climatic variables resulting from the RCP 8.5 (FRAG-8.5). The test AUC (area under de curve) metric (0.768 ± 0.018) indicated satisfactory model performance. In the FRAG-8.5 scenario 63% ( 2.900.000 km2) of the study region shows from 0.35 to 0.55 of RFP, while in the baseline and under the SUST-4.5 scenario, 30% and 40% of the region is within this range of RFP, respectively. Conversely, in the baseline 29% of the area shows up to 0.1 RFP, but this

  1. The Design and Implementation of a Novel Skew Scenario Model in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Vetrivelan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In this research, it had been presented a novel Skew Scenario Model that has been developed and implemented for mobile ad hoc networks. There exist several mobility patterns that try to capture the behavior of the mobile devices under different circumstances, whereas in our work, the direction movement of the nodes is significantly specified horizontally, vertically and diagonally in the simulation area. Approach: Our novel Skew Scenario Model and the impact of mobility on MANET protocols had been compared and analyzed. The performance of DSDV and DSR under SSM in terms of packet delivery fraction, routing load and latency for varying source and destination traffic from 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 under 100 nodes environment had been analyzed. Apart from this, our SSM with the existing waypoint model in 100 nodes environment had been compared. A suitable algorithm for SSM has also been developed. Results: Our simulation result showed that the functioning of our SSM had greatly influenced the performance of routing protocols in MANET environment. Simulation experiments confirm that for DSR under SSM, the PDF is highest between 93.56-99.43%, routing load is lowest between 1.005-1.068 and Latency is very less between 0.0163-0.049 sec, in the case of DSDV under SSM, the PDF is 63.22-79.104%, routing load is 1.20-1.58 and latency is 0.018-0.050 sec. The result revealed the fact that the reactive routing protocol DSR outperforms much more than the Proactive routing protocol DSDV. Our Novel Model has performed well when we compared it with existing waypoint mobility model while setting many source-destination connections. In DSR under SSM and waypoint model, PDF is between 93.56-99.43% in SSM and in waypoint 94.20-98.88%. Routing load in SSM is 1.0056-1.068, waypoint 1.01-1.06 seconds. Latency is between 0.026-0.063 in SSM and in waypoint 0.026-0.1235 sec. Conclusion: This study revealed the fact that the DSR discovers new routes faster

  2. Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponce-Hernandez, R.; Koohafkan, P.; Antoine, J. (eds.)

    2004-07-01

    This publication presents a methodology and software tools for assessing carbon stocks and modelling scenarios of carbon sequestration that were developed and tested in pilot field studies in Mexico and Cuba. The models and tools enable the analysis of land use change scenarios in order to identify in a given area (watershed or district) land use alternatives and land management practices that simultaneously maximize food production, maximize soil carbon sequestration, maximize biodiversity conservation and minimize land degradation. The objective is to develop and implement 'win-win' options that satisfy the multiple goals of farmers, land users and other stakeholders in relation to food security, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and land conservation.

  3. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  4. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet; Caracterisation, modelisation et controle des scenarios avances dans le tokamak europeen jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tresset, G

    2002-09-26

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  5. Scenario tree model for animal disease freedom framed in the OIE context using the example of a generic swine model for Aujeszky's disease in commercial swine in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jette; Vallières, André

    2016-01-01

    "Freedom from animal disease" is an ambiguous concept that may have a different meaning in trade and science. For trade alone, there are different levels of freedom from OIE listed diseases. A country can: be recognized by OIE to be "officially free"; self-declare freedom, with no official recognition by the OIE; or report animal disease as absent (no occurrence) in six-monthly reports. In science, we apply scenario tree models to calculate the probability of a population being free from disease at a given prevalence to provide evidence of freedom from animal disease. Here, we link science with application by describing how a scenario tree model may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease. We combine the idea of a standardized presentation of scenario tree models for disease freedom and having a similar model for two different animal diseases to suggest that a simple generic model may help veterinary authorities to build and evaluate scenario tree models for disease freedom. Here, we aim to develop a generic scenario tree model for disease freedom that is: animal species specific, population specific, and has a simple structure. The specific objectives were: to explore the levels of freedom described in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code; to describe how scenario tree models may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease; and to present a generic swine scenario tree model for disease freedom in Canada's domestic (commercial) swine applied to Aujeszky's disease (AD). In particular, to explore how historical survey data, and data mining may affect the probability of freedom and to explore different sampling strategies. Finally, to frame the generic scenario tree model in the context of Canada's claim of freedom from AD. We found that scenario tree models are useful to support a country's claim of freedom either as "recognized officially free" or as part of a self-declaration but the models should not stand alone in a

  6. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics andAdvanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  7. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics andAdvanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  8. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  9. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  10. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

    2011-12-01

    Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

  11. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2015-01-01

    Background: In Europe a substantial share of the energy supply is used for domestic heating and cooling. The quality of building insulation thus significantly impacts air pollution. Objectives: To model the effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution levels...... and the resulting effects on health and economy. Methods: Projected energy savings between 2005 and 2020 were calculated for an improved building insulation scenario and a business as usual scenario. The resulting changes in emissions (e.g. from power plants) were used in the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model...... 78678 LY in Europe. A total of 7173 cases of persistent chronic bronchitis could be avoided annually. Several other health outcomes improved similarly. The saved societal costs totaled 6.64 billion € annually. Conclusions: In addition to carbon emission reductions, an improved building insulation...

  12. Comparison of "warm and wet" and "cold and icy" scenarios for early Mars in a 3D climate model

    CERN Document Server

    Wordsworth, Robin D; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T; Forget, Francois; Head, James W

    2015-01-01

    We use a 3D general circulation model to compare the primitive Martian hydrological cycle in "warm and wet" and "cold and icy" scenarios. In the warm and wet scenario, an anomalously high solar flux or intense greenhouse warming artificially added to the climate model are required to maintain warm conditions and an ice-free northern ocean. Precipitation shows strong surface variations, with high rates around Hellas basin and west of Tharsis but low rates around Margaritifer Sinus (where the observed valley network drainage density is nonetheless high). In the cold and icy scenario, snow migration is a function of both obliquity and surface pressure, and limited episodic melting is possible through combinations of seasonal, volcanic and impact forcing. At surface pressures above those required to avoid atmospheric collapse (~0.5 bar) and moderate to high obliquity, snow is transported to the equatorial highland regions where the concentration of valley networks is highest. Snow accumulation in the Aeolis quadr...

  13. Switching Control System Based on Robust Model Reference Adaptive Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Qiong; FEI Qing; MA Hongbin; WU Qinghe; GENG Qingbo

    2016-01-01

    For conventional adaptive control,time-varying parametric uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics are ticklish problems,which will lead to undesirable performance or even instability and nonrobust behavior,respectively.In this study,a class of discrete-time switched systems with unmodeled dynamics is taken into consideration.Moreover,nonlinear systems are here supposed to be approximated with the class of switched systems considered in this paper,and thereby switching control design is investigated for both switched systems and nonlinear systems to assure stability and performance.For robustness against unmodeled dynamics and uncertainty,robust model reference aclaptive control (RMRAC) law is developed as the basis of controller design for each individual subsystem in the switched systems or nonlinear systems.Meanwhile,two different switching laws are presented for switched systems and nonlinear systems,respectively.Thereby,the authors incorporate the corresponding switching law into the RMRAC law to construct two schemes of switching control respectively for the two kinds of controlled systems.Both closed-loop analyses and simulation examples are provided to illustrate the validity of the two proposed switching control schemes.Furthermore,as to the proposed scheme for nonlinear systems,its potential for practical application is demonstrated through simulations of longitudinal control for F-16 aircraft.

  14. Reference Models for Structural Technology Assessment and Weight Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerro, Jeff; Martinovic, Zoran; Eldred, Lloyd

    2005-01-01

    Previously the Exploration Concepts Branch of NASA Langley Research Center has developed techniques for automating the preliminary design level of launch vehicle airframe structural analysis for purposes of enhancing historical regression based mass estimating relationships. This past work was useful and greatly reduced design time, however its application area was very narrow in terms of being able to handle a large variety in structural and vehicle general arrangement alternatives. Implementation of the analysis approach presented herein also incorporates some newly developed computer programs. Loft is a program developed to create analysis meshes and simultaneously define structural element design regions. A simple component defining ASCII file is read by Loft to begin the design process. HSLoad is a Visual Basic implementation of the HyperSizer Application Programming Interface, which automates the structural element design process. Details of these two programs and their use are explained in this paper. A feature which falls naturally out of the above analysis paradigm is the concept of "reference models". The flexibility of the FEA based JAVA processing procedures and associated process control classes coupled with the general utility of Loft and HSLoad make it possible to create generic program template files for analysis of components ranging from something as simple as a stiffened flat panel, to curved panels, fuselage and cryogenic tank components, flight control surfaces, wings, through full air and space vehicle general arrangements.

  15. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by

  16. Cooperative Reference Services Policy Manual: A Model Outline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    RQ, 1995

    1995-01-01

    Provides a framework of topics that should be covered by a policy manual on cooperative reference services. It is organized into sections on mission statement, administration, delivery of services, and evaluation of services, and is intended for use in conjunction with existing RASD (Reference and Adult Services Division) documents. (Author)

  17. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  18. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...... the manure is applied, specific legislations governing the manure management practices, etc.). Further, it presents a reference manure composition for each of these reference systems, including key parameters such as dry matter, nitrogen (inorganic and total), phosphorus, carbon and volatile solids content...

  19. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts.

  20. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland

  1. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

  2. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  3. Path Loss, Shadow Fading, and Line-Of-Sight Probability Models for 5G Urban Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Thomas, Timothy; Rappaport, Theodore S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents key parameters including the line-of-sight (LOS) probability, large-scale path loss, and shadow fading models for the design of future fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban macro-cellular (UMa) scenarios, using the data obtained from propagation measure...

  4. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  5. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Harpman, C.; Broers, H.P.; Fowler, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations inclu

  6. Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems: a comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, B.; Blok, Kornelis

    2015-01-01

    Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models

  7. SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yao-bin; LI Ren-dong; LI Chun-hua

    2005-01-01

    By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eeo-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios,and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eeo-environment can be realized.

  8. Analyzing Students' Understanding of Models and Modeling Referring to the Disciplines Biology, Chemistry, and Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Moritz; Reinisch, Bianca; Krüger, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    In this study, secondary school students' (N?=?617; grades 7 to 10) understanding of models and modeling was assessed using tasks which explicitly refer to the scientific disciplines of biology, chemistry, and physics and, as a control, to no scientific discipline. The students' responses are interpreted as their biology-, chemistry-, and…

  9. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  10. Numerical modeling of Etla Valley aquifer, Oax., Mexico: Evolution and remediation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores-Marquez, E. L; Martinez-Serrano, R. G; Chavez, R. E; Crusillo, Y [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Jimenez, G [Facultad de Ingenieria, Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, Puebla (Mexico); Camops-Enriquez, O [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    2008-01-15

    Short-term evolution (for 2001, 2005 and 2015) for the shallow aquifer of Etla Valley, Oaxaca, southern Mexico, was simulated based in a 3D hydrological model elaborated from the available geological, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic parameters. The numerical simulations were based on Visual MODFLOW code. These simulations indicate that, if the actual extraction regime is maintained, the drawdown of the potentiometric surface will get worse to the SE of the study area (i. e. beneath Oaxaca city). The prevailing aquifer flow direction favors the ground water pollution by fertilizers and leakage from the sewage network (dumped to the Atoyac river). According to the numerical simulation, remediation of this situation is possible if the wells located in the neighborhood of Oaxaca City are relocated at the recharge zones (i. e. at the feet from Sierra de Juarez). This remediation scenario will allow a recovery of the drawdown of the potentiometric surface. [Spanish] Se presenta un modelo geohidrologico evolutivo 3D a corto plazo (para los anos 2001, 2005 y 2015) del acuifero somero del Valle de Etla, Oaxaca, sureste de Mexico, basado en los parametros disponibles de geologia, geofisica, geoquimica e hidrologia. Las simulaciones numericas fueron realizadas en Visual MODFLOW. Estas simulaciones indican que, si el actual regimen de extraccion es mantenido, el abatimiento de la superficie potenciometrica puede ser mayor en el SE del area de estudio (i. e. cerca de la ciudad de Oaxaca). La contaminacion por fertilizantes y por las fugas de drenaje es favorecida por la direccion de flujo imperante en el acuifero (vaciandose en el rio Atoyac). De acuerdo a las simulaciones numericas, existe una posible remediacion de este proceso, relocalizando los pozos situados en la ciudad de Oaxaca en las zonas de recarga (i. e. en las faldas de la Sierra de Juarez). Este escenario de remediacion permitiria una recuperacion en el nivel de la superficie potenciometrica.

  11. Late-Quaternary biogeographic scenarios for the brown bear ( Ursus arctos), a wild mammal model species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, John; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Bray, Sarah C.; Korsten, Marju; Tammeleht, Egle; Hindrikson, Maris; Østbye, Kjartan; Østbye, Eivind; Lauritzen, Stein-Erik; Austin, Jeremy; Cooper, Alan; Saarma, Urmas

    2011-02-01

    This review provides an up-to-date synthesis of the matrilineal phylogeography of a uniquely well-studied Holarctic mammal, the brown bear. We extend current knowledge by presenting a DNA sequence derived from one of the earliest known fossils of a polar bear (dated to 115 000 years before present), a species that shares a paraphyletic mitochondrial association with brown bears. A molecular clock analysis of 140 mitochondrial DNA sequences, including our new polar bear sequence, provides novel insights into the times of origin for different brown bear clades. We propose a number of regional biogeographic scenarios based on genetic data, divergence time estimates and paleontological records. The case of the brown bear provides an example for researchers working with less well-studied taxa: it shows clearly that phylogeographic models based on patterns of modern genetic variation alone can be substantially improved by including data on historical patterns of genetic diversity in the form of ancient DNA sequences derived from accurately dated samples and by using an approach to divergence-time estimation that suits the data under analysis. Using such approaches it has been possible to (i) establish that the processes shaping modern genetic diversity in brown bears acted recently, within the last three glacial cycles; (ii) distinguish among hypotheses concerning species' responses to climatic oscillations in accordance with the lack of phylogeographic structure that existed in brown bears prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM); (iii) reassess theories linking monophyletic brown bear populations to particular LGM refuge areas; and (iv) identify vicariance events and track analogous patterns of migration by brown bears out of Eurasia to North America and Japan.

  12. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  13. Comparative analyses of $B\\to K_2^*l^+l^-$ in the standard model and new physics scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Run-Hui; Wang, Wei

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the $B\\to K_2^*(\\to K\\pi)l^+l^-$ (with $l=e,\\mu,\\tau$) decay in the standard model and two new physics scenarios: vector-like quark model and family non-universal $Z'$ model. We derive the differential angular distributions of the quasi-four-body decay, using the recently calculated form factors in the perturbative QCD approach. Branching ratios, polarizations, forward-backward asymmetries and transversity amplitudes are predicted, from which we find a promising prospective to observe this channel on the future experiment. We also update the constraints on effective Wilson coefficients and/or free parameters in these two new physics scenarios by making use of the experimental data of $B\\to K^*l^+l^-$ and $b\\to sl^+l^-$. Their impact on $B\\to K_2^*l^+l^-$ is subsequently explored and in particular the zero-crossing point for the forward-backward asymmetry in these new physics scenarios can sizably deviate from the SM scenario. In addition we also generalize the analysis to a similar mode $B_s\\to f_2...

  14. Deterministic and multi-scenario models for pallet allocation over a pallet pool in a city joint distribution system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pallet pooling is a basis for the operation of a city joint distribution system. Pallet allocation is a key problem for the success of a pallet pool. This article considers a multi-station, multi-period, and multi-type pallet allocation problem over a pallet pool in a city joint distribution system. First of all, we develop a deterministic model to optimally allocate pallets when managers have perfect knowledge of the information that will be available. By case studies, we show that this model can help managers to make scientific decisions. The influence of transportation capacity on decisions is shown by numerical simulation. And we propose managers should use both demand forecasting and leasing and renting tactics to minimization allocation cost. Then, we propose a multi-scenario model to optimally allocate pallets when some uncertain parameters cannot be estimated through historical data. The application of this multi-scenario model is also illustrated.

  15. Due process model of procedural justice in performance appraisal: promotion versus termination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Heloneida C; Cole, Nina D; Flint, Douglas A

    2006-12-01

    In a laboratory study, 318 student participants (148 male, 169 female, and one who did not report sex; M age 25.0, SD = 6.0) in introductory organizational behavior classes responded to scenarios in which performance appraisal resulted in either employee promotion or termination. Each scenario had varying levels of three procedural justice criteria for performance appraisal. For both promotion and termination outcomes, analysis showed that, as the number of criteria increased, perceptions of procedural fairness increased. A comparison between the two outcomes showed that perceptions of fairness were significantly stronger for the promotion outcome than for termination.

  16. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  17. Scenario Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranovskiy Nikolay V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario research results of heat transfer and tissue damage in three-layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire are presented. The problem is solved in two-dimensional statement in polar coordinates. The typical range of influence parameters (heat flux from forest fire front, trunk radius, coniferous species, air temperature, duration of exposure and distance from fire line is considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time are obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research. Information summarized using tables with scenario and fire consequences results.

  18. CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Shynkarenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

  19. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...

  20. Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A-Ra Choi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

  1. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  2. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region.

  3. Perceptual quality estimation of H.264/AVC videos using reduced-reference and no-reference models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Muhammad; Pandremmenou, Katerina; Kondi, Lisimachos P.; Rossholm, Andreas; Lövström, Benny

    2016-09-01

    Reduced-reference (RR) and no-reference (NR) models for video quality estimation, using features that account for the impact of coding artifacts, spatio-temporal complexity, and packet losses, are proposed. The purpose of this study is to analyze a number of potentially quality-relevant features in order to select the most suitable set of features for building the desired models. The proposed sets of features have not been used in the literature and some of the features are used for the first time in this study. The features are employed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), which selects only the most influential of them toward perceptual quality. For comparison, we apply feature selection in the complete feature sets and ridge regression on the reduced sets. The models are validated using a database of H.264/AVC encoded videos that were subjectively assessed for quality in an ITU-T compliant laboratory. We infer that just two features selected by RR LASSO and two bitstream-based features selected by NR LASSO are able to estimate perceptual quality with high accuracy, higher than that of ridge, which uses more features. The comparisons with competing works and two full-reference metrics also verify the superiority of our models.

  4. Modelling the thermomechanical behaviour of the tungsten first wall in HiPER laser fusion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garoz, D.; Páramo, A. R.; Rivera, A.; Perlado, J. M.; González-Arrabal, R.

    2016-12-01

    The behaviour of a tungsten first wall is studied under the irradiation conditions predicted for the different operational scenarios of the European laser fusion project HiPER, which is based on direct drive targets and an evacuated dry wall chamber. The scenarios correspond to different stages in the development of a nuclear fusion reactor, from proof of principle (bunch mode facility) to economic feasibility (pre-commercial power plant). This work constitutes a quantitative study to evaluate first wall performance under realistic irradiation conditions in the different scenarios. We calculated the radiation fluxes assuming the geometrical configurations reported so far for HiPER. Then, we calculated the irradiation-induced evolution of first wall temperature and the thermomechanical response of the material. The results indicate that the first wall will plastically deform up to a few microns underneath the surface. Continuous operation in a power plant leads to fatigue failure with crack generation and growth. Finally, crack propagation and the minimum tungsten thickness required to fulfil the first wall protection role is studied. The response of tungsten as a first wall material as well as its main limitations will be discussed for the HiPER scenarios.

  5. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  6. Alternative zoning scenarios for regional sustainable land use controls in China: a knowledge-based multiobjective optimisation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yin; Liu, Dianfeng; Liu, Yaolin; He, Jianhua; Hong, Xiaofeng

    2014-08-28

    Alternative land use zoning scenarios provide guidance for sustainable land use controls. This study focused on an ecologically vulnerable catchment on the Loess Plateau in China, proposed a novel land use zoning model, and generated alternative zoning solutions to satisfy the various requirements of land use stakeholders and managers. This model combined multiple zoning objectives, i.e., maximum zoning suitability, maximum planning compatibility and maximum spatial compactness, with land use constraints by using goal programming technique, and employed a modified simulated annealing algorithm to search for the optimal zoning solutions. The land use zoning knowledge was incorporated into the initialisation operator and neighbourhood selection strategy of the simulated annealing algorithm to improve its efficiency. The case study indicates that the model is both effective and robust. Five optimal zoning scenarios of the study area were helpful for satisfying the requirements of land use controls in loess hilly regions, e.g., land use intensification, agricultural protection and environmental conservation.

  7. Intrinsically green iron oxide nanoparticles? From synthesis via (eco-)toxicology to scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filser, Juliane; Arndt, Darius; Baumann, Jonas; Geppert, Mark; Hackmann, Stephan; Luther, Eva M.; Pade, Christian; Prenzel, Katrin; Wigger, Henning; Arning, Jürgen; Hohnholt, Michaela C.; Köser, Jan; Kück, Andrea; Lesnikov, Elena; Neumann, Jennifer; Schütrumpf, Simon; Warrelmann, Jürgen; Bäumer, Marcus; Dringen, Ralf; von Gleich, Arnim; Swiderek, Petra; Thöming, Jorg

    2013-01-01

    Iron oxide nanoparticles (IONP) are currently being studied as green magnet resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agents. They are also used in huge quantities for environmental remediation and water treatment purposes, although very little is known on the consequences of such applications for organisms and ecosystems. In order to address these questions, we synthesised polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated IONP, characterised the particle dispersion in various media and investigated the consequences of an IONP exposure using an array of biochemical and biological assays. Several theoretical approaches complemented the measurements. In aqueous dispersion IONP had an average hydrodynamic diameter of 25 nm and were stable over six days in most test media, which could also be predicted by stability modelling. The particles were tested in concentrations of up to 100 mg Fe per L. The activity of the enzymes glutathione reductase and acetylcholine esterase was not affected, nor were proliferation, morphology or vitality of mammalian OLN-93 cells although exposure of the cells to 100 mg Fe per L increased the cellular iron content substantially. Only at this concentration, acute toxicity tests with the freshwater flea Daphnia magna revealed slightly, yet insignificantly increased mortality. Two fundamentally different bacterial assays, anaerobic activated sludge bacteria inhibition and a modified sediment contact test with Arthrobacter globiformis, both rendered results contrary to the other assays: at the lowest test concentration (1 mg Fe per L), IONP caused a pronounced inhibition whereas higher concentrations were not effective or even stimulating. Preliminary and prospective risk assessment was exemplified by comparing the application of IONP with gadolinium-based nanoparticles as MRI contrast agents. Predicted environmental concentrations were modelled in two different scenarios, showing that IONP could reduce the environmental exposure of toxic Gd-based particles by more than 50

  8. Stability and homogeneity of microbiological reference materials: some statistical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heisterkamp SH; Hoogenveen RT; van Strijp-Lockefeer NGWM; Hoekstra JA; Havelaar AH; Mooijman KA

    1991-01-01

    Microbiological reference materials are being developed by the RIVM since several years. These materials consist of capsules filled with milkpowder artificially contaminated with a bacteria test strain of choice (i.e. Escherichia coli, Enterobacter cloacae, Salmonella typhimurium). Both from long

  9. Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruosteenoja, K.; Carter, T.R.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.

    2003-07-01

    Projections of changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation for three 30-year periods during the 21st century in 32 sub-continental scale regions are presented. This information may offer useful guidance on the selection of climate scenarios for regional impact studies. The climate changes have been simulated by seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing being inferred from the SRES emission scenarios A1F1, A2, B1 and B2. For a majority of the AOGCMs, simulations have only been conducted for scenarios A2 and B2. Projections for other scenarios were then extrapolated from the available runs applying a pattern-scaling technique. In tests, this method proved to be fairly accurate, the correlation between the AOGCM-simulated and the corresponding pattern-scaled response to the A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century being generally {approx} 0.97 - 0.99 for temperature and {approx} 0.9 or higher for precipitation. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation are presented in the form of 384 scatter diagrams. The model-simulated temperature changes were almost invariably statistically significant, i.e., they fell clearly outside the natural multi-decadal variability derived from 1000-year unforced coupled AOGCM simulations. For precipitation, fewer modelled changes were statistically significant, especially in the earliest projection period 2010-2039. Differences in the projections given by various models were substantial, of the same order of magnitude by the end of the century as differences among the responses to separate forcing scenarios. Nevertheless, the surface air temperature increased in all regions and seasons. For precipitation, changes with both sign occurred, but an increase of regional precipitation was more common than a decrease. All models simulate higher precipitation at high latitudes and enhanced summer monsoon precipitation for Southern and Eastern Asia. There

  10. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefit...

  11. Models of Ceres' Surface as a Function of Origin and Evolution Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, J. C.; Frank, E.; Grazier, K.; Raymond, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    photolysis) whose impact may depend to some extent on the possible presence of a remnant magnetic field. In order to approach this problem we have modeled the evolution of Ceres by combining physical and chemical modeling and covering a broad parametric space that encompass the various scenarios proposed for Ceres' volatile origin. From this modeling we have inferred constrained on Ceres surface physical and chemical properties and established some pathways to infer constraints on Ceres' origin, evolution, and current state from prospective observations with Dawn. Acknowledgements: Part of this work has been conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA. Alexander, C. M. O'D., et al. (2012) Sciencexpress report, doi: 10.1126/science.1223474; Castillo-Rogez, J. C., McCord, T. B. (2010) Icarus 205, 443-459, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.04.008; Dodson-Robinson, S. E., et al. (2009) Icarus 200, 672; McCord, T. B., Sotin, C. (2005) J. Geophys. Res. 110, CiteID E05009; Milliken, R. E., Rivkin, A. S. (2009) Nature Geosci. 2, 258-261, doi:10.1038/ngeo478; Rivkin et al. (2006) Icarus, 185; Walsh, K. J. et al. (2011) Nature 745, doi:10.1038/nature10201.

  12. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    , that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate adaptation. The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways. Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are facing in modern times - not only the 46.000 km2 Po valley, but all around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and economies. REFERENCES Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5), 2313-2332. Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347-348. Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140-161. Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment 521, 346-358.

  13. Research Article Evaluation of different signal propagation models for a mixed indoor-outdoor scenario using empirical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Artemenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are choosing a suitable indoor-outdoor propagation model out of the existing models by considering path loss and distance as parameters. A path loss is calculated empirically by placing emitter nodes inside a building. A receiver placed outdoors is represented by a Quadrocopter (QC that receives beacon messages from indoor nodes. As per our analysis, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU model, Stanford University Interim (SUI model, COST-231 Hata model, Green-Obaidat model, Free Space model, Log-Distance Path Loss model and Electronic Communication Committee 33 (ECC-33 models are chosen and evaluated using empirical data collected in a real environment. The aim is to determine if the analytically chosen models fit our scenario by estimating the minimal standard deviation from the empirical data.

  14. Extension of ITU IMT-A Channel Models for Elevation Domains and Line-of-Sight Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zhong, Zhimeng; Li, Xin; Li, Xue

    2013-01-01

    In this contribution, the 3-dimensional (3D) channel characteristics, particularly in the elevation domains, are extracted through measurements in typical urban macro and micro environments in Xi'an China. Stochastic channel model parameters are obtained based on the high-resolution multi-path parameter estimates. In addition, a modified spatial channel model (SCM) for the line-of-sight (LoS) scenario is proposed where the LoS polarization matrix is parameterized in accordance with the reality. Measurement results justify the reasonability of the proposed model. These works significantly improve the applicability of the ITU SCM models in realistic 3D channel simulations.

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Assessing the future change of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Florida using ranked CMIP5 model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, S.; Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    The ultimate goal of this study is to assess future water vulnerability over Florida, based on the change in precipitation and evapotranspiration estimated using the most advanced Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble. We evaluated the skills of CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology over the state of Florida for the key climate variables important from the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation (Precp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and wind speed (Ws)). The biases of raw CMIP5 were estimated using two different grid-based observational datasets as references. Based on the accuracy of various predictors such as mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc., the GCMs were ranked for each of the different reference datasets, climate variables, and predictors. The variation of the ranks was examined and rank-based GCM weights were assigned. The weights were then used to develop future ensembles (for 4 different RCP gas-emission scenarios) for the annual cycle of monthly mean and variance of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Finally the differences between the retrospective and future ensembles were investigated to assess future climate change impacts on water vulnerability using simple indices (e.g., ETo/Precp., drought index, and Standardized Precp. index). The uncertainties of the assessment were quantified by the spread range of ensembles and a reliability factor for the GCMs estimated using a measure of model biases and convergence criterion.

  17. Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-01-01

    Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

  18. European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, J. [Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Haellstroemin katu 2, PO Box 64, 00014, Helsinki (Finland); Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Hansson, U.; Ullerstig, A.; Doescher, R.; Graham, L.P.; Jones, C.; Meier, H.E.M.; Samuelsson, P.; Willen, U. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2004-01-01

    A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model. In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences) and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 10 C in the RE-A2 simulation and 6-7 C in the RH-A2 and RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness. All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases. (orig.)

  19. Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.

  20. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on river basin sediment yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Coulthard

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status, as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from Global or Regional Climate Models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade".

    This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50 yr

  1. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Coulthard

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade".

    This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr

  2. Modelling Nonlinearities and Reference Dependence in General Practitioners' Income Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holte, Jon Helgheim; Sivey, Peter; Abelsen, Birgit; Olsen, Jan Abel

    2016-08-01

    This paper tests for the existence of nonlinearity and reference dependence in income preferences for general practitioners. Confirming the theory of reference dependent utility within the context of a discrete choice experiment, we find that losses loom larger than gains in income for Norwegian general practitioners, i.e. they value losses from their current income level around three times higher than the equivalent gains. Our results are validated by comparison with equivalent contingent valuation values for marginal willingness to pay and marginal willingness to accept compensation for changes in job characteristics. Physicians' income preferences determine the effectiveness of 'pay for performance' and other incentive schemes. Our results may explain the relative ineffectiveness of financial incentive schemes that rely on increasing physicians' incomes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. The NorWeST Stream Temperature Database, Model, and Climate Scenarios for the Northwest U.S. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, D.; Wenger, S.; Peterson, E.; Ver Hoef, J.; Luce, C.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kershner, J.; Dunham, J.; Nagel, D.; Roper, B.

    2013-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is warming the Earth's rivers and streams and threatens significant changes to aquatic biodiversity. Effective threat response will require prioritization of limited conservation resources and coordinated interagency efforts guided by accurate information about climate, and climate change, at scales relevant to the distributions of species across landscapes. Here, we describe the NorWeST (i.e., NorthWest Stream Temperature) project to develop a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution climate scenarios across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (~400,000 stream kilometers). The NorWeST database consists of stream temperature data contributed by >60 state, federal, tribal, and private resource agencies and may be the largest of its kind in the world (>45,000,000 hourly temperature recordings at >15,000 unique monitoring sites). These data are being used with spatial statistical network models to accurately downscale (R2 = 90%; RMSE climate patterns to all perennially flowing reaches within river networks at 1-kilometer resolution. Historic stream temperature scenarios are developed using air temperature data from RegCM3 runs for the NCEP historical reanalysis and future scenarios (2040s and 2080s) are developed by applying bias corrected air temperature and discharge anomalies from ensemble climate and hydrology model runs for A1B and A2 warming trajectories. At present, stream temperature climate scenarios have been developed for 230,000 stream kilometers across Idaho and western Montana using data from more than 7,000 monitoring sites. The raw temperature data and stream climate scenarios are made available as ArcGIS geospatial products for download through the NorWeST website as individual river basins are completed (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml). By providing open access to temperature data and scenarios, the project is fostering new research on stream

  4. Estimation model of training support system for Finite Element Analysis and implementation of training scenario as knowledge patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuhiro Murayama

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an arrangement method of FEA modeling knowledge by using a design pattern methodology, and deals with an estimation method of FEA training scenario. The prototype support system and its training knowledge can be arranged and classified in several patterns, while the mechanics of a beam structure has been picked up as an example of training subject. Essential evaluation problems were prepared for checking the synthetic achievement and the effectivity of training support system onto any beginners of the code called MARC/MENTAT has been investigated. Through the simulation with the prototype training support system, an evaluation model as the synthetic achievement test for any training scenario was shown with the degree vector. Observing the reusability of training programs, the compression rate of iterated common operations was estimated for the prototype training support system.

  5. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  6. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard

    2010-01-01

    engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic...... efficiency (quantity of fish caught per litre of fuel used), and profitability are factors that we simulated in developing a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) for fishing vessel movements. The observed spatial and seasonal patterns of fishing effort for each fishing activity are evaluated...... to the harbour, and (C) allocating effort towards optimising the expected area-specific profit per trip. The model is informed by data from each Danish fishing vessel >15 m after coupling its high resolution spatial and temporal effort data (VMS) with data from logbook landing declarations, sales slips, vessel...

  7. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    OpenAIRE

    Roshan GholamReza; Moghbel Masumeh; Grab Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels...

  8. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for dev...

  9. Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis of Marine and Hydrokinetic Reference Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenne, D. S.; Yu, Y. H.; Neary, V.

    2015-04-24

    In 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy initiated the development of six marine energy converter reference models. The reference models are point designs of well-known marine energy converters. Each device was designed to operate in a specific marine resource, instead of a generic device that can be deployed at any location. This method allows each device to be used as a benchmark for future reference model to benchmark future devices. The six designs consist of three current energy converters and three wave energy converters. The reference model project has generated both technical and economic data sets that are available in the public domain. The methodology to calculate the levelized cost of energy for the reference model project and an overall comparison of the cost of energy from these six reference-model designs are presented in this paper.

  10. Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

  11. Beaconless Georouting Under The Spotlight: Practical Link Models and Application Scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Bader, Ahmed

    2015-06-18

    Beaconless georouting has emerged as a viable packetforwarding technique in distributed wireless networks, particularly for applications requiring portability and scalability. In this paper, we focus on fine-tuning and developing the analytical tools associated with the study of beaconless georouting protocols. For instance, they have been traditionally analyzed and simulated from the perspective of a single hop only. However, end-to-end performance analysis is instrumental when considering practical application scenarios. Furthermore, beaconless georouting protocols have been studied in literature assuming equal communication ranges for the data and control packets. In reality, this is not true since the communication range is actually a function of the packet length (among other factors). Control packets are typically much shorter than data packets. As a consequence, a substantial discrepancy exists in practice between their respective communication ranges, causing many data packet drops. Accordingly, we introduce two simple strategies for bridging the gap between the control and data packet communication ranges. Our primary objective in this paper is to construct a realistic analysis describing the end-to-end performance of beaconless georouting protocols. Two flagship protocols are selected in this paper for further investigation. For a better perspective, the two protocols are actually compared to a hypothetical limit case, one which offers optimal energy and latency performance. Finally, we present four different application scenarios. For each scenario, we highlight the georouting protocol which performs the best and discuss the reasons behind it. © 2007-2012 IEEE.

  12. Modeling He-rich subdwarfs through the hot-flasher scenario (brief version)

    CERN Document Server

    Bertolami, M M Miller; Unglaub, K; Weiss, A

    2008-01-01

    We present 1D numerical simulations aimed at studying the hot-flasher scenario for the formation of He-rich subdwarf stars. Sequences were calculated for a wide range of metallicities and with the He core flash at different points of the post-RGB evolution (i.e. different remnant masses). We followed the complete evolution from the ZAMS, through the hot-flasher event, and to the subdwarf stage for all kinds of hot-flashers. This allows us to present a homogeneous set of abundances for different metallicities and all flavors of hot-flashers. We extend the scope of our work by analyzing the effects in the predicted surface abundances of some standard assumptions in convective mixing and the effects of element diffusion. We find that the hot-flasher scenario is a viable explanation for the formation of He-sdO stars. Our results also show that element diffusion may produce the transformation of (post hot-flasher) He-rich atmospheres into He-deficient ones. If this is so, then the hot-flasher scenario is able to r...