WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling project ad2003-15

  1. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...... to achieve the emission ceilings given in the Gothenburg Protocol and the EU directive on national emission ceilings in 2010. In addition to the basis scenario, 8 emission reduction scenarios for different sectors have been analysed in order to estimate the emission saving potential and financial and welfare...

  2. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  3. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    www.eia.gov/ forecasts /aeo/tables_ref.cfm U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2014. National land cover database (NLCD). Multi - Resolution Land...Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 ERDC/CERL TR-16-32 ii Abstract U.S. Army stationing is a constant multi -scale process. Large scale station- ing, which...20 4.6 Model output

  4. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  5. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  6. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  7. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  8. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  9. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  10. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  11. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  12. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may contribute to ineffective project communication. This article reports the results of a study done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should ...

  13. Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Sarah K.; French, R. A.; Nall, M. E.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  14. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  15. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  16. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  17. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  18. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  19. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  20. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  1. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  2. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  3. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, leadership, South African .... If the recipients do not read it, it will not affect the project. These methods include intranet sites, ..... emotional intelligence or interpersonal skills and an understanding of crosscultural differences needed to ...

  4. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  5. The Regional Discharge Model development project

    OpenAIRE

    Mäenpää, Tiina; Koivunen, Marita; Lukka, Heli; Wanne, Olli

    2010-01-01

    Purpose/Theory The goal of the Regional Discharge Model (RDM) project was to develop discharge models, avoid unnecessary hospitalization, and improves the transfer of the patient to the right follow-on treatment or care, utilizing the public and private sector, research and training as well as developing technologies like the Regional Health Information Systems (RHIS) in the Satakunta Hospital District area. The RDM project is part of the ‘Whole life at home’ initiative funded and administere...

  6. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  7. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  8. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  9. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  10. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  11. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  12. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  13. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  14. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  15. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  16. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  17. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....... in the research, presented in this article, conducted in a Danish manufacturing company, is how an IT system could be configured to support shopfloor teamwork and enhance the quality of work. The approach is based on participatory design and the concept of "model power". This concept facilitates an understanding...

  18. Projected shell model description for nuclear isomers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Y. [Department of Physics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, Popular Republic (China)

    2008-12-15

    The study of nuclear isomer properties is a current research focus. To describe isomers, we present a method based on the Projected Shell Model. Two kinds of isomers, {kappa}-isomers and shape isomers, are discussed. For the {kappa}-isomer treatment, {kappa}-mixing is properly implemented in the model. It is found however that in order to describe the strong {kappa}-violation more efficiently, it may be necessary to further introduce triaxiality into the shell model basis. To treat shape isomers, a scheme is outlined which allows mixing those configurations belonging to different shapes. (Author)

  19. SIMULATION MODELING OF IT PROJECTS BASED ON PETRI NETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Михайлович ВОЗНЫЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated simulation model of IT project based on a modified Petri net model that combines product and model of project tasks has been proposed. Substantive interpretation of the components of the simulation model has been presented, the process of simulation has been described. The conclusions about the integration of the product model and the model of works project were made.

  20. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  1. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  2. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  3. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  4. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  5. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  6. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  7. AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, A. A.; Derosnay, P.

    2007-05-01

    Extreme climatic variability has afflicted West Africa over the last half century, which has resulted in significant socio-economic consequences for the people of this region. There is therefore a need to improve seasonal to inter-annual prediction of the West-African monsoon (WAM), however, difficulties modeling the WAM arise from both the paucity of observations at sufficient space-time resolutions, and due to the complex interactions between the biosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere over this region. In particular, there is evidence that the land surface influences the variability of the WAM over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. A critical aspect of this coupling is the feedback between the regional atmospheric circulation and the strong meridional surface flux gradients of mass and energy. One of the main goals of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Project is to obtain a better understanding of the physical processes influencing the West-African Monsoon (WAM) on daily to inter-annual timescales. An improved comprehension of the relevant land surface processes is being addressed through the construction of a multi-scale atmospheric and land surface parameter forcing database using a variety of sources; numerical weather prediction forecast data, remote sensing products and local scale observations. The goal of this database is to drive land surface, vegetation and hydrological models over a range of spatial scales (local to regional) in order to gain better insights into the attendant processes. This goal is being met under the auspices of the AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP). In the recently completed Phase 1 of this project, an ensemble of state-of-the-art land surface schemes have been run in "off-line" mode (i.e. decoupled from an atmospheric model) at a regional scale over western Africa for four annual cycles (2002-5). In this talk, intercomparison results will be presented. In addition, results from a

  8. Building integral projection models: a user's guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P

    2014-05-01

    In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  9. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  10. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  11. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  12. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  13. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  14. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  15. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S. K.; Nall, M. E.; French, R. A.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-12-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL - US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation’s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  16. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  17. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  18. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  19. Radiation exposure modeling and project schedule visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquish, W.R.; Enderlin, V.R.

    1995-10-01

    This paper discusses two applications using IGRIP (Interactive Graphical Robot Instruction Program) to assist environmental remediation efforts at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. In the first application, IGRIP is used to calculate the estimated radiation exposure to workers conducting tasks in radiation environments. In the second, IGRIP is used as a configuration management tool to detect interferences between equipment and personnel work areas for multiple projects occurring simultaneously in one area. Both of these applications have the capability to reduce environmental remediation costs by reducing personnel radiation exposure and by providing a method to effectively manage multiple projects in a single facility

  20. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  1. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.; Findell, K. L.; Giannini, A.

    2017-12-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. In other words, we show, over a subset of climate models, how land-atmosphere interactions may be a cause of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.

  2. Projective Modeling and System Change: Reservoir Management Examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a projective modeling approach for ecological/ environmental systems is introduced. The basic idea behind projective modeling is to define (possible) future output behavior and to use identifiable timevarying system parameters, representing underlying sub-processes, as an (additional)

  3. Replication/Implementation Model Field Test: Project SHAL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; Young, Rufus, Jr.

    This document reports findings of a study that evaluated the implementation model developed for Project SHAL, an "effective schools" reform model. Implemented in 1980 in Area I of the St. Louis Public School District (Missouri), Project SHAL is an acronym for the four original participating schools--Stowe, Hempstead, Arlington, and…

  4. Creation and usage of component model in projecting information systems

    OpenAIRE

    Urbonas, Paulius

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to create the information system, using component model. Making new information systems, often the same models are building. Realizing system with component model in creating new system it‘s possible to use the old components. To describe advantages of component model information system was created for company “Vilseda”. If the created components used in future, they have been projected according to theirs types(grafical user interface, data and function reques...

  5. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Conditioning Engineers BIM Building Information Model BLCC building life cycle costs BPA Building Performance Analysis CAD computer assisted...utilizes information on operations, geometry, orientation, weather, and materials, generating Three-Dimensional (3D) Building Information Models ( BIM ...executed a demonstration of Rapid Energy Modeling (REM) workflows that employed building information modeling ( BIM ) approaches and conceptual energy

  6. A Model of and for Virtual Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garud, R.; Kumaraswamy, A.; Tuertscher, P.R.; Cattani, G.; Ferriani, S.; Frederiksen, L.; Täube, F.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how digital technologies enable distributed actors to collaborate asynchronously on virtual projects. We use Wikipedia and associated wiki digital technology as the research site for our exploration. Our probe of the emergence of Wikipedia articles highlights a distinctive property of

  7. The PASS Model Project: Administrative Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George Peabody Coll. for Teachers, Nashville, TN.

    Described is the PASS (Psychoeducational Agency-School System) Project, a collaborative effort between the Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools and the Child Study Center of George Peabody College for Teachers to demonstrate how agency and school system resources may be combined in an integrated service delivery system for learning disabled (LD)…

  8. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  9. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  10. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  11. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  12. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten; Giannini, Alessandra

    2017-06-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.Plain Language SummaryClimate model projections of Sahel rainfall remain notoriously uncertain; understanding the physical processes responsible for this uncertainty is thus crucial. Our study focuses on analyzing the feedbacks of soil moisture changes on model projections of the West African Monsoon under global warming. Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions have been shown in prior studies to play an important role in this region, but the potential feedbacks of long-term soil moisture changes on projected precipitation changes have not been investigated specifically. To isolate these feedbacks, we use targeted simulations from five climate models, with and without soil moisture change. Importantly, we find that climate models exhibit soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks of different sign in this region: in some models soil moisture changes amplify precipitation changes (positive feedback), in others they dampen them

  13. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  14. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  15. Occupant Protection Data Mining and Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which...

  16. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Abdel Azeem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  17. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  18. Leading Undergraduate Research Projects in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we provide some useful perspectives and experiences in mentoring students in undergraduate research (UR) in mathematical modeling using differential equations. To engage students in this topic, we present a systematic approach to the creation of rich problems from real-world phenomena; present mathematical models that are derived…

  19. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...

  20. Multiscale Modeling of Hall Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — New multiscale modeling capability for analyzing advanced Hall thrusters is proposed. This technology offers NASA the ability to reduce development effort of new...

  1. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  2. Educating the Community: A Watershed Model Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perryess, C. S.

    2001-01-01

    Focuses on the construction and use of a schoolyard model of the Morrow Bay watershed in California. Describes the design and use of materials that include styrofoam insulation, crushed granite, cement, and stucco. (DDR)

  3. Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The I-Logix team proposes development of the Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment (SOSME) to allow faster and more effective spacecraft system design...

  4. Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieder, William R.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Allison, Steven D.

    2013-10-01

    Society relies on Earth system models (ESMs) to project future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, the soil C response to climate change is highly uncertain in these models and they omit key biogeochemical mechanisms. Specifically, the traditional approach in ESMs lacks direct microbial control over soil C dynamics. Thus, we tested a new model that explicitly represents microbial mechanisms of soil C cycling on the global scale. Compared with traditional models, the microbial model simulates soil C pools that more closely match contemporary observations. It also projects a much wider range of soil C responses to climate change over the twenty-first century. Global soils accumulate C if microbial growth efficiency declines with warming in the microbial model. If growth efficiency adapts to warming, the microbial model projects large soil C losses. By comparison, traditional models project modest soil C losses with global warming. Microbes also change the soil response to increased C inputs, as might occur with CO2 or nutrient fertilization. In the microbial model, microbes consume these additional inputs; whereas in traditional models, additional inputs lead to C storage. Our results indicate that ESMs should simulate microbial physiology to more accurately project climate change feedbacks.

  5. Model for setting priority construction project objectives aligned with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comprehensive model based on priority project objectives aligned with monetary incentives, and agreed upon by built environment stakeholders was developed. A web survey was adopted to send out a questionnaire to nationwide participants, including contractors, quantity surveyors, project managers, architects, and ...

  6. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  7. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  8. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  9. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ott, Søren; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly...

  10. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  11. Automation of Safety Analysis with SysML Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project was a small proof-of-concept case study, generating SysML model information as a side effect of safety analysis. A prototype FMEA Assistant was...

  12. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  13. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  14. DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

  15. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...

  16. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  17. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  18. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  19. Application of Projection Pursuit Model in Soilevaluation of Conservation Tillage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Junjing; Li, Hongwen

    This paper established a conservation tillage evaluation model based on projection pursuit to evaluate the soil composite achievement of conservation tillage. After optimizing the project direction, the multi-dimension data of the seven evaluation indices are synthesized to one dimension, and the author could evaluate each item with the projection data easily, which avoided the jamming of weight matrix. The results of the evaluation mode in Linfen, Shouyang and Linghai are accordant with the production, which indicated that the model was available and provided a new method or thought to evaluate the composite achievement of conservation tillage.

  20. Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

    2002-01-01

    Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

  1. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects...... of nonlocal response and a finite work function with TDDFT-level accuracy. Applying the theory to dimers, we find quantum corrections to the hybridization even in mesoscopic dimers, as long as the gap itself is subnanometric....

  2. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  3. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  4. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  5. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  6. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  7. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  8. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  10. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  11. A CBA model of a hydro project in Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morimoto, Risako; Hope, C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Judge Inst. of Management

    2004-07-01

    This study demonstrates an empirical application of a cost benefit analysis for hydro projects, which includes social and environmental as well as economic aspects. The model treats uncertain inputs by specifying them as probability distributions. A proposed hydro project in Sri Lanka is used as a case study. The study uses time variable discount rates related to economic growth and investigates the sensitivity of the net present value to the choice of a discount rate. (author)

  12. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  13. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  14. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    1. Population projection matrices (PPMs) are probably the most commonly used empirical population models. To be useful for predictive or prospective analyses, PPM models should generally be irreducible (the associated life cycle graph contains the necessary transition rates to facilitate pathways...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... to irreducible models. Reducible–non-ergodic models will usually defy biological rationale in their description of the both the life cycle and population dynamics, hence contravening most analytical methods. 4. We provide simple methods to evaluate reducibility and ergodicity of PPM models, present illustrative...

  15. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  16. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  17. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  18. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  19. Heart Modeling, Computational Physiology and the IUPS Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Peter J.

    The Physiome Project of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) is attempting to provide a comprehensive framework for modelling the human body using computational methods which can incorporate the biochemistry, biophysics and anatomy of cells, tissues and organs. A major goal of the project is to use computational modelling to analyse integrative biological function in terms of underlying structure and molecular mechanisms. To support that goal the project is developing XML markup languages (CellML & FieldML) for encoding models, and software tools for creating, visualizing and executing these models. It is also establishing web-accessible physiological databases dealing with model-related data at the cell, tissue, organ and organ system levels. Two major developments in current medicine are, on the one hand, the much publicised genomics (and soon proteomics) revolution and, on the other, the revolution in medical imaging in which the physiological function of the human body can be studied with a plethora of imaging devices such as MRI, CT, PET, ultrasound, electrical mapping, etc. The challenge for the Physiome Project is to link these two developments for an individual - to use complementary genomic and medical imaging data, together with computational modelling tailored to the anatomy, physiology and genetics of that individual, for patient-specific diagnosis and treatment.

  20. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    Integral Projection Models (IPMs) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates - survival, growth and reproduction - to make population projections. IPMs are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates from state variables (e.g., size or age) and covariates...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  1. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  2. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  3. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  4. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  5. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  6. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  7. Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  8. Accessing Curriculum Through Technology Tools (ACTTT): A Model Development Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daytner, Katrina M.; Johanson, Joyce; Clark, Letha; Robinson, Linda

    2012-01-01

    Accessing Curriculum Through Technology Tools (ACTTT), a project funded by the U.S. Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP), developed and tested a model designed to allow children in early elementary school, including those "at risk" and with disabilities, to better access, participate in, and benefit from the general curriculum.…

  9. МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

  10. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  11. Project Physics Text 5, Models of the Atom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA. Harvard Project Physics.

    Basic atomic theories are presented in this fifth unit of the Project Physics text for use by senior high students. Chemical basis of atomic models in the early years of the 18th Century is discussed n connection with Dalton's theory, atomic properties, and periodic tables. The discovery of electrons is described by using cathode rays, Millikan's…

  12. Student Success in College Composition through the Puente Project Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Barbara

    Much can be learned from California's Puente Project Model that would help students' success in classrooms as well as in college in general, and in their daily lives. Puente, which means "bridge" in Spanish, began in 1982 at Chabot College in northern California and is now in 38 colleges and 19 high schools statewide. Originally designed…

  13. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  14. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  15. Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatmiko, Bambang

    2017-09-01

    Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

  16. Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawahar Nesan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

  17. Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Giovanni

    2018-04-01

    On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

  18. Models for project management in 2016 Olympic Games

    OpenAIRE

    Sousa, M. J.; Lima, F.; Martins, J. R.

    2016-01-01

    The Olympic Games are the major sports event on the planet gathering people for all over the world and integrating several kind of resources that need to be managed in order to achieve efficiency and the sustainability of the event. The research question of this paper is “Which project management business model best fit a mega event like the 2016 Olympic Games?” The organizations which participate in the Olympic Games project management in Rio are under the pressure of external scenarios of u...

  19. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  20. The Sasagawa project: a model for deinstitutionalisation in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Masafumi; Sakuma, Kei; Ryu, Yonosuke; Munakata, Shunichi; Takebayashi, Toru; Murakami, Masaaki; Falloon, Ian R H; Kashima, Haruo

    2005-06-01

    Japanese psychiatric services are still typically hospital-based. The Sasagawa Project is the first systematized deinstitutionalization project in Japan that aims to make the transition from hospital to residential living while ensuring both the quality and continuity of care for the patients. Seventy-eight (51 males) patients (mean age 54.6) with chronic schizophrenia, who were considered appropriate for discharge received continuous cognitive behavioural therapies based on the Optimal Treatment Project manualised protocol, both before and after the hospital closure. During the first 12 months after the deinstitutionalisation was initiated on April 1st, 2002, ten people had incidents that interrupted their stay in the residential Sasagawa Village. A common criticism of many treatment outcome trials is that evaluation is focused on changes in clinical severity. In the Sasagawa project the transition appeared to have been smooth and relatively few incidents occurred could be related to the transition to a less intensive residential care. This project might be a useful model for effecting and monitoring transition from hospital to community care in Japan and other countries where such changes have been proposed.

  1. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  2. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

    2018-03-01

    The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  3. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burmistrov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  4. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  5. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-01-01

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy’s unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast. PMID:24003129

  6. Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana ŽURGA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

  7. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  8. Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

    2011-01-01

    The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  10. A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

  11. Assessing Australian Rainfall Projections in Two Model Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taschetto, A.; Haarsma, R. D.; Sen Gupta, A.

    2016-02-01

    Australian climate is projected to change with increases in greenhouse gases. The IPCC reports an increase in extreme daily rainfall across the country. At the same time, mean rainfall over southeast Australia is projected to reduce during austral winter, but to increase during austral summer, mainly associated with changes in the surrounding oceans. Climate models agree better on the future reduction of average rainfall over the southern regions of Australia compared to the increase in extreme rainfall events. One of the reasons for this disagreement may be related to climate model limitations in simulating the observed mechanisms associated with the mid-latitude weather systems, in particular due to coarse model resolutions. In this study we investigate how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affect Australian mean and extreme rainfall under global warming, using a suite of numerical experiments at two model resolutions: about 126km (T159) and 25km (T799). The numerical experiments are performed with the earth system model EC-EARTH. Two 6-member ensembles are produced for the present day conditions and a future scenario. The present day ensemble is forced with the observed daily SST from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center from 2002 to 2006. The future scenario simulation is integrated from 2094 to 2098 using the present day SST field added onto the future SST change created from a 17-member ensemble based on the RCP4.5 scenario. Preliminary results show an increase in extreme rainfall events over Tasmania associated with enhanced convection driven by the Tasman Sea warming. We will further discuss how the projected changes in SST will impact the southern mid-latitude weather systems that ultimately affect Australian rainfall.

  12. The Radio Language Arts Project: adapting the radio mathematics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, P R

    1985-01-01

    Kenya's Radio Language Arts Project, directed by the Academy for Educational Development in cooperation with the Kenya Institute of Education in 1980-85, sought to teach English to rural school children in grades 1-3 through use of an intensive, radio-based instructional system. Daily 1/2 hour lessons are broadcast throughout the school year and supported by teachers and print materials. The project further was aimed at testing the feasibility of adaptation of the successful Nicaraguan Radio Math Project to a new subject area. Difficulties were encountered in articulating a language curriculum with the precision required for a media-based instructional system. Also a challenge was defining the acceptable regional standard for pronunciation and grammar; British English was finally selected. An important modification of the Radio Math model concerned the role of the teacher. While Radio Math sought to reduce the teacher's responsibilities during the broadcast, Radio Language Arts teachers played an important instructional role during the English lesson broadcasts by providing translation and checks on work. Evaluations of the Radio language Arts Project suggest significant gains in speaking, listening, and reading skills as well as high levels of satisfaction on the part of parents and teachers.

  13. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  14. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  15. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  16. Projective symmetry of partons in Kitaev's honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado, Paula

    2015-03-01

    Low-energy states of quantum spin liquids are thought to involve partons living in a gauge-field background. We study the spectrum of Majorana fermions of Kitaev's honeycomb model on spherical clusters. The gauge field endows the partons with half-integer orbital angular momenta. As a consequence, the multiplicities reflect not the point-group symmetries of the cluster, but rather its projective symmetries, operations combining physical and gauge transformations. The projective symmetry group of the ground state is the double cover of the point group. We acknowledge Fondecyt under Grant No. 11121397, Conicyt under Grant No. 79112004, and the Simons Foundation (P.M.); the Max Planck Society and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (O.P.); and the US DOE Grant No. DE-FG02-08ER46544 (O.T.).

  17. Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Youcef

    1989-01-01

    Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

  18. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  19. Developing a Project Scorecard to Measure the Performance of Project Management in Relation to EFQM Excellence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Scheiblich

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Strategic company plans are more frequently realised in the form of strategic projects. Project portfolio management is new territory for a lot of companies, especially regarding the evaluation of strategic projects and the final financial and social results. The paper focuses on a pattern methodology for the measurement of project management performance and for projects prioritisation process. For this purpose, we analyse relevant pieces of literature in the field of project management, as well as other connected fields, like maturity and excellence models, balanced and project scorecard and performance measurement. As research methodology we develop a Project Scorecard that is derived from the Balanced Scorecard and the EFQM model. This is used to connect the strategic decision making process to the operational level of a project in terms of objectives and expectations, by determining a proper set of parameters that can measure each element’s impact on the project overall success. Our research focuses on two main parameters, staff and project maturity. Testing this tool is done by reviewing a sum of human resources documents and various employee surveys. The results offer an overall interpretation and key of the Project Scorecard.

  20. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

  1. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  2. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  3. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D. [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S. [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan)] [and others

    1992-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  4. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D.; Braumiller, S.

    1992-01-01

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  5. Eradicating the tsetse fly on Zanzibar Island: A model project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Tsetse flies infest vast areas of Africa and transmit a parasitic disease which devastates livestock herds and spreads debilitating 'sleeping sickness' amongst people. Past efforts to control the disease - Trypanosomosis - and the carrier insects have met with only limited success. But now an environmentally friendly technology called the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) may provide a lasting solution to this scourge. Working with the Tanzanian Government and Zanzibar authorities, the Department of Technical Co-operation has sponsored a 'Model Project', with technical support from the Joint FAO/IAEA Division, to eradicate the tsetse fly completely from Zanzibar Island by applying SIT. (IAEA)

  6. Nucleon form factors in the projected linear chiral soliton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Coimbra Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Gruemmer, F.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Bochum Univ.

    1988-01-01

    Electromagnetic and axial form factors of the nucleon are evaluated using the lagrangian of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end angular momentum and isospin projected mean field solutions are determined variationally assuming valence quarks and pions in generalized hedgehog configurations. With the proper pion decay constant and after fitting the quark-meson coupling constant to the nucleon energy both proton and neutron charge form factors are reproduced as well as the slope of the magnetic ones. The axial form factor agrees less well with experiment. The pion form factor can be approximated by a monopole with a cut-off mass of 690 MeV. (orig.)

  7. Systemic Modeling of Biological Functions in Consideration of Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamitani, Haruyuki

    Emerging of the physiome project provides various influences on the medical, biological and pharmaceutical development. In this paper, as an example of physiome research, neural network model analysis providing the conduction mechanisms of pain and tactile sensations was presented, and the functional relations between neural activities of the network cells and stimulus intensity applied on the peripheral receptive fields were described. The modeling presented here is based on the various assumptions made by the results of physiological and anatomical studies reported in the literature. The functional activities of spinothalamic and thalamocortical cells show a good agreement with the physiological and psychophysical functions of somatosensory system that are very instructive for covering the gap between physiologically and psychophysically aspects of pain and tactile sensation.

  8. Two-stage Bayesian models-application to ZEDB project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunea, C.; Charitos, T.; Cooke, R.M.; Becker, G.

    2005-01-01

    A well-known mathematical tool to analyze plant specific reliability data for nuclear power facilities is the two-stage Bayesian model. Such two-stage Bayesian models are standard practice nowadays, for example in the German ZEDB project or in the Swedish T-Book, although they may differ in their mathematical models and software implementation. In this paper, we review the mathematical model, its underlying assumptions and supporting arguments. Reasonable conditional assumptions are made to yield tractable and mathematically valid form for the failure rate at plant of interest, given failures and operational times at other plants in the population. The posterior probability of failure rate at plant of interest is sensitive to the choice of hyperprior parameters since the effect of hyperprior distribution will never be dominated by the effect of observation. The methods of Poern and Jeffrey for choosing distributions over hyperparameters are discussed. Furthermore, we will perform verification tasks associated with the theoretical model presented in this paper. The present software implementation produces good agreement with ZEDB results for various prior distributions. The difference between our results and those of ZEDB reflect differences that may arise from numerical implementation, as that would use different step size and truncation bounds

  9. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that -in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model's parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  10. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  11. Evaluation model of project complexity for large-scale construction projects in Iran - A Fuzzy ANP approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyeh Kazemi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects have always been complex. By growing trend of this complexity, implementations of large-scale constructions become harder. Hence, evaluating and understanding these complexities are critical. Correct evaluation of a project complication can provide executives and managers with good source to use. Fuzzy analytic network process (ANP is a logical and systematic approach toward defining, evaluation, and grading. This method allows for analyzing complex systems, and determining complexity of them. In this study, by taking advantage of fuzzy ANP, effective indexes for development of complications in large-scale construction projects in Iran have been determined and prioritized. The results show socio-political, project system interdependencies, and technological complexity indexes ranked top to three. Furthermore, in comparison of three main huge projects: commercial-administrative, hospital, and skyscrapers, the hospital project had been evaluated as the most complicated. This model is beneficial for professionals in managing large-scale projects.

  12. PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

  13. Conceptualising a multidimensional model of information communication and technology project complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazeer Joseph

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Information communication and technology (ICT projects are different from other projects, such as construction, and require a new perspective to determine their true nature. The lacklustre state of ICT projects has plagued researchers and practitioners for decades as they are yet to understand why ICT projects do not perform. Literature places significant emphasis on success criteria and success factors for determining project success, but this is a unilateral view as the level of complexity involved is underestimated. ICT projects, however, are multifaceted as there are a number of dimensions that influence the management and outcome of a project. Objectives: This article aimed to illuminate how the dimensions are interdependent and interconnected through the construction of a conceptual model of ICT project complexity. Methods: Content analysis was used to identify and understand the various dimensions and facilitated construction of the model. Results: The article identified five dimensions that affect ICT projects, viz. project success, project lifecycle, project complexity, project types and project methods. Each dimension was analysed to understand the key constructs and elements that need to be considered. The dimensions were mapped in a multidimensional model. Conclusion: The multidimensional model of ICT project complexity can be used by ICT project managers to more effectively manage projects as they are provided with a greater understanding of ICT project influences.

  14. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  15. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  16. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  17. Modeling of problems of projection: A non-countercyclic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Ginsburg

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a computational implementation of the recent Problems of Projection (POP approach to the study of language (Chomsky 2013; 2015. While adopting the basic proposals of POP, notably with respect to how labeling occurs, we a attempt to formalize the basic proposals of POP, and b develop new proposals that overcome some problems with POP that arise with respect to cyclicity, labeling, and wh-movement operations. We show how this approach accounts for simple declarative sentences, ECM constructions, and constructions that involve long-distance movement of a wh-phrase (including the that-trace effect. We implemented these proposals with a computer model that automatically constructs step-by-step derivations of target sentences, thus making it possible to verify that these proposals work.

  18. Towards robust evolutionary inference with integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janeiro, M J; Coltman, D W; Festa-Bianchet, M; Pelletier, F; Morrissey, M B

    2017-02-01

    Integral projection models (IPMs) are extremely flexible tools for ecological and evolutionary inference. IPMs track the distribution of phenotype in populations through time, using functions describing phenotype-dependent development, inheritance, survival and fecundity. For evolutionary inference, two important features of any model are the ability to (i) characterize relationships among traits (including values of the same traits across ages) within individuals, and (ii) characterize similarity between individuals and their descendants. In IPM analyses, the former depends on regressions of observed trait values at each age on values at the previous age (development functions), and the latter on regressions of offspring values at birth on parent values as adults (inheritance functions). We show analytically that development functions, characterized this way, will typically underestimate covariances of trait values across ages, due to compounding of regression to the mean across projection steps. Similarly, we show that inheritance, characterized this way, is inconsistent with a modern understanding of inheritance, and underestimates the degree to which relatives are phenotypically similar. Additionally, we show that the use of a constant biometric inheritance function, particularly with a constant intercept, is incompatible with evolution. Consequently, current implementations of IPMs will predict little or no phenotypic evolution, purely as artefacts of their construction. We present alternative approaches to constructing development and inheritance functions, based on a quantitative genetic approach, and show analytically and through an empirical example on a population of bighorn sheep how they can potentially recover patterns that are critical to evolutionary inference. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  19. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions

  20. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  1. Megacity project: Liwa, climate and water balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamorro, Alejandro; Bardossy, Andras

    2010-05-01

    Megacity project: Liwa, climate and water balance modeling Peru uses to face different natural phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina phenomena and, like many cities around the word, the climate change effects. Its capital Lima, located in a region where annual precipitation is about 9 mm, has a high hydrological cycle vulnerability which is demonstrated in periods of drought and extreme drought. Accurate and reliable methodology is requiring studying the impact of all these problems in the water supply of Lima. A statistical downscaling scheme (Bardossy, 2002) will be used to generate time series of different local climate scenarios in order to be applied in hydrological models. The conceptual model HBV (Bergström, 1995) is used to simulate water discharges at certain points of the catchments under study, water balance groundwater and for the estimation of storage volume in different reservoirs. As already mentioned, El Nino and La Nina currents influence the hydrological cycle. Previous studies have shown that these phenomena have serious impacts in Peru. In order to quantify these impacts in the area of interest we have analyzed the magnitude of the precipitation in several stations in years in which El Nino occurred, and in years where El Nino did not occurred. The next step is to increase the temporal resolution by incorporating new data. Due to the high vulnerability of the water supply system in Lima, potential new water sources are required. In particular, the catchment of Mantaro (including existing lakes) on the other side of Los Andes Mountains provides potential new alternatives for adding water to the current system. Alternatives for water transportation include using existing long tunnels which connect Mantaro with Rimac, where the majority of the lakes are located. Finally, the global climate models simulations for the coming years, considering different scenarios, will be used as an indicator and to estimate water availability for human use (city

  2. The CTQ flowdown as a conceptual model of project objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, H.; de Mast, J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe and clarify a tool that is at the core of the definition phase of most quality improvement projects. This tool is called the critical to quality (CTQ) flowdown. It relates high-level strategic focal points to project objectives. In their turn project

  3. Building an Experiential Learning Model for a Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan C.; Chuang, Keh-Wen

    2009-01-01

    Teaching students to become project management professionals requires a real world experience. Incorporating live clients into student projects, instead of using case studies or mock companies, adds a dimension that exposes students to the realities of project management. This paper will describe a structured methodology used in a project…

  4. Galerkin v. discrete-optimal projection in nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matthew Franklin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Antil, Harbir [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Discrete-optimal model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss{Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible ow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform projection at the time-continuous level, while discrete-optimal techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and experimental comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge{Kutta schemes. We present a number of new ndings, including conditions under which the discrete-optimal ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the discrete-optimal ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible- ow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the discrete-optimal reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.

  5. Study on the maturity model of nuclear power project management in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Changbing; Li Huiqiang; Zheng Yanguo

    2009-01-01

    Based on the general project management maturity model, this paper discussed the establishment of nuclear power engineering project management maturity model in China, and proposed a basic framework in order to provide a way for improving and evaluating the ability of nuclear power project management in China. (authors)

  6. Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

    2017-12-01

    The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

  7. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  8. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  9. Form factors in the projected linear chiral sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Bochum Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Gruemmer, F.; Bochum Univ.

    1990-01-01

    Several nucleon form factors are computed within the framework of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end variational means and projection techniques applied to generalized hedgehog quark-boson Fock states are used. In this procedure the Goldberger-Treiman relation and a virial theorem for the pion-nucleon form factor are well fulfilled demonstrating the consistency of the treatment. Both proton and neutron charge form factors are correctly reproduced, as well as the proton magnetic one. The shapes of the neutron magnetic and of the axial form factors are good but their absolute values at the origin are too large. The slopes of all the form factors at zero momentum transfer are in good agreement with the experimental data. The pion-nucleon form factor exhibits to great extent a monopole shape with a cut-off mass of Λ=690 MeV. Electromagnetic form factors for the vertex γNΔ and the nucleon spin distribution are also evaluated and discussed. (orig.)

  10. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  11. BOT schemes as financial model of hydro power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grausam, A.

    1997-01-01

    Build-operate-transfer (BOT) schemes are the latest methods adopted in the developing infrastructure projects. This paper outlines the project financing through BOT schemes and briefly focuses on the factors particularly relevant to hydro power projects. Hydro power development provides not only the best way to produce electricity, it can also solve problems in different fields, such as navigation problems in case of run-of-the river plants, ground water management systems and flood control etc. This makes HPP projects not cheaper, but hydro energy is a clean and renewable energy and the hydro potential worldwide will play a major role to meet the increased demand in future. 5 figs

  12. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: A method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin ePyka

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM, to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: i the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, ii the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  13. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: a method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyka, Martin; Klatt, Sebastian; Cheng, Sen

    2014-01-01

    Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM), to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: (i) the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, (ii) the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  14. [Eco-value level classification model of forest ecosystem based on modified projection pursuit technique].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengzhen; Hong, Wei; Hong, Tao

    2006-03-01

    To optimize the projection function and direction of projection pursuit technique, predigest its realization process, and overcome the shortcomings in long time calculation and in the difficulty of optimizing projection direction and computer programming, this paper presented a modified simplex method (MSM), and based on it, brought forward the eco-value level classification model (EVLCM) of forest ecosystem, which could integrate the multidimensional classification index into one-dimensional projection value, with high projection value denoting high ecosystem services value. Examples of forest ecosystem could be reasonably classified by the new model according to their projection value, suggesting that EVLCM driven directly by samples data of forest ecosystem was simple and feasible, applicable, and maneuverable. The calculating time and value of projection function were 34% and 143% of those with the traditional projection pursuit technique, respectively. This model could be applied extensively to classify and estimate all kinds of non-linear and multidimensional data in ecology, biology, and regional sustainable development.

  15. Solar Car, Solar Boat: Model Classroom Projects. Seattle Tech Prep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seattle Community Coll. District, Washington.

    This booklet shows how teachers at Ingraham High School and Madison Middle School in Seattle (Washington) challenged their students to tackle demanding technical projects. It also shows how well the students responded to that challenge. The booklet begins with the background of the project, the framework for which would be a university-sponsored…

  16. Chapter 9 - Vegetation succession modeling for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Long; B. John (Jack) Losensky; Donald Bedunah

    2006-01-01

    One of the main objectives of the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was to determine departure of current vegetation conditions from the range and variation of conditions that existed during the historical era identified in the LANDFIRE guidelines as 1600-1900 A.D. (Keane and Rollins, Ch. 3). In...

  17. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  18. Housing Value Projection Model Related to Educational Planning: The Feasibility of a New Methodology. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbock, Richard W.; Marker, Gordon

    This study concerns the feasibility of a Markov chain model for projecting housing values and racial mixes. Such projections could be used in planning the layout of school districts to achieve desired levels of socioeconomic heterogeneity. Based upon the concepts and assumptions underlying a Markov chain model, it is concluded that such a model is…

  19. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  20. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  1. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  2. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  3. Projection-simulated ametropia. A model for teaching subjective refraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henningsen, M A; Guyton, D L

    1985-06-01

    Teaching subjective refraction techniques ("refractometry") is enhanced by having the student experience the effect of each lens change "through the eyes of the patient." A projector, positioned behind the phoropter, projects a visual acuity chart through the phoropter onto the far wall. "Unknown" refractive errors are simulated by attaching trial lenses to the lens barrel of the projector, and the student progressively clears the projected image as he learns the standard steps of subjective refractometry. The focus sensitivity of each lens change can be varied, if desired, by stopping down the projection system. This simulation, which uses equipment readily available in most ophthalmology offices, has proven useful for both demonstration and practice.

  4. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  5. NASA GRC UAS Project - Communications Modeling and Simulation Development Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaza, Rafael; Bretmersky, Steven; Dailey, Justin; Satapathy, Goutam; Ditzenberger, David; Ye, Chris; Kubat, Greg; Chevalier, Christine; Nguyen, Thanh

    2014-01-01

    The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC Modeling and Simulation team, will provide an update to this ongoing effort at NASA GRC as follow-up to the overview of the planned simulation effort presented at ICNS in 2013. The objective

  6. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  7. HB-Line Special Nuclear Material Campaigns: Model-Based Project Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHANG, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This study is to show how a model was used to enable management to better estimate production capabilities to ensure contract milestones/commitments are met, to cope with fast changing project baselines and project missions, to ensure the project will meet the negotiated throughput, and to eliminate unnecessary but costly design changes

  8. Experience of Hungarian model project: 'Strengthening training for operational safety at Paks NPP'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, I.

    1998-01-01

    Training of Operational Safety at Paks NPP is described including all the features of the project including namely: description of Paks NPP, its properties and performances; reasons for establishing Hungarian Model Project, its main goals, mentioning Hungarian and IAEA experts involved in the Project, its organization, operation, budget, current status together with its short term and long term impact

  9. Collaborative Project. A Flexible Atmospheric Modeling Framework for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettelman, Andrew [University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-01

    In this project we have been upgrading the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), also known as Super-Parameterized CAM (SP-CAM). This has included a major effort to update the coding standards and interface with CAM so that it can be placed on the main development trunk. It has also included development of a new software structure for CAM to be able to handle sub-grid column information. These efforts have formed the major thrust of the work.

  10. The Analysis of Several Models of Investment Value of Logistics Project Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiu Cheng Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the logistics project evaluation model features reviews the traditional value evaluation model. On the basis of this, using the fuzzy theory, we establish several logistics project evaluation models under fuzzy environment. The analysis of the respective characteristics and the comparison of the calculated results of the three models show that these models are important methods of investment value of logistics evaluation.

  11. How Do Artifact Models Help Direct SPI Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Richardson, Ita

    2015-01-01

    To overcome shortcomings associated with software process improvement (SPI), we previously recommended that process engineers focus on the artifacts to be developed in SPI projects. These artifacts should define desired outcomes, rather than specific methods. During this prior research, we...

  12. Cost estimate modeling of transportation management plans for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Highway rehabilitation and reconstruction projects frequently cause road congestion and increase safety concerns while limiting access for road users. State Transportation Agencies (STAs) are challenged to find safer and more efficient ways to renew ...

  13. Defining and implementing a model for pharmacy resident research projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick TB

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe a standard approach to provide a support structure for pharmacy resident research that emphasizes self-identification of a residency research project. Methods: A subcommittee of the residency advisory committee was formed at our institution. The committee was initially comprised of 2 clinical pharmacy specialists, 1 drug information pharmacist, and 2 pharmacy administrators. The committee developed research guidelines that are distributed to residents prior to the residency start that detail the research process, important deadlines, and available resources. Instructions for institutional review board (IRB training and deadlines for various assignments and presentations throughout the residency year are clearly defined. Residents conceive their own research project and emphasis is placed on completing assignments early in the residency year. Results: In the 4 years this research process has been in place, 15 of 16 (94% residents successfully identified their own research question. All 15 residents submitted a complete research protocol to the IRB by the August deadline. Four residents have presented the results of their research at multi-disciplinary national professional meetings and 1 has published a manuscript. Feedback from outgoing residents has been positive overall and their perceptions of their research projects and the process are positive. Conclusion: Pharmacy residents selecting their own research projects for their residency year is a feasible alternative to assigning or providing lists of research projects from which to select a project.

  14. Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsman, Devin W; Aukema, Brian H; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

    2018-01-01

    Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

  15. COGNITIVE MODELING AS A METHOD OF QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Інна Ігорівна ОНИЩЕНКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The example project implementing automated CRM-system demonstrated the possibility and features of cognitive modeling in the qualitative analysis of project risks to determine their additional features. Proposed construction of cognitive models of project risks in information technology within the qualitative risk analysis, additional assessments as a method of ranking risk to characterize the relationship between them. The proposed cognitive model reflecting the relationship between the risk of IT project to assess the negative and the positive impact of certain risks for the remaining risks of project implementation of the automated CRM-system. The ability to influence the risk of a fact of other project risks can increase the priority of risk with low impact on results due to its relationship with other project risks.

  16. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  17. Ecological Modeling for Military Land Use Decision Support: Interim Progress Report for Ecological Modeling (Project CS/758/4567)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dale, Virginia

    1996-01-01

    .... The ecological models implemented as part of this project are components of the Conservation Thrust's "DoD Land Management Toolbox" and are compatible with the Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System ÎDLAMS...

  18. Project desk evaluation of a model project CPR/5/009 industrial scale irradiation of rice and other foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    The project CPR/5/009 was approved in 1993 as a model project. The project objective was to build an industrial food irradiation facility for high quality rice and other foodstuffs, with a processing capacity of 5000-9000 tonnes per year. This capacity is large compared to many other facilities of the same type elsewhere. The success of the project waste to be measured against the full utilization of the facility with an acceptable availability factor. Disbursements on Agency inputs up to the end of June 1996 were $294,716 and consisted of one 100 kCi Co-60 source, quality control equipment, bag heat sealers, one expert mission and 13.5 months of training abroad. The current budget is $323,870, following two programme changes. The total cost of the project was estimated at $1,331,300 with the Chinese Government providing the balance. The major conclusions of this evaluation are as follows: Initially, the Agency overestimated the project and business management experience of the counterpart, and consequently underestimated the extent of support required. Providing support to counterparts in facing the key challenges of project management and business operation must be considered by the Agency in future projects of this type. The counterpart institution is also encouraged to emphasize these management issues in order to maximize sustainable and cost-effective utilization of such facilities. A new operational plan has been prepared by the counterpart for 1996 through 1998 which identifies seven customers requiring treatment of a total of 1000 tonnes per year of cereal grains and 1500 tonnes per year of other foodstuffs. This plan reflects a change in overall emphasis from supporting food supply security to ensuring the safety of foodstuffs. It is not clear whether this plan will support operation of the facility at full capacity. The team in place to operate the facility also needs further strengthening. (author). Figs, tabs

  19. Funding Medical Research Projects: Taking into Account Referees' Severity and Consistency through Many-Faceted Rasch Modeling of Projects' Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesio, Luigi; Simone, Anna; Grzeda, Mariuzs T; Ponzio, Michela; Dati, Gabriele; Zaratin, Paola; Perucca, Laura; Battaglia, Mario A

    2015-01-01

    The funding policy of research projects often relies on scores assigned by a panel of experts (referees). The non-linear nature of raw scores and the severity and inconsistency of individual raters may generate unfair numeric project rankings. Rasch measurement (many-facets version, MFRM) provides a valid alternative to scoring. MFRM was applied to the scores achieved by 75 research projects on multiple sclerosis sent in response to a previous annual call by FISM-Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis. This allowed to simulate, a posteriori, the impact of MFRM on the funding scenario. The applications were each scored by 2 to 4 independent referees (total = 131) on a 10-item, 0-3 rating scale called FISM-ProQual-P. The rotation plan assured "connection" of all pairs of projects through at least 1 shared referee.The questionnaire fulfilled satisfactorily the stringent criteria of Rasch measurement for psychometric quality (unidimensionality, reliability and data-model fit). Arbitrarily, 2 acceptability thresholds were set at a raw score of 21/30 and at the equivalent Rasch measure of 61.5/100, respectively. When the cut-off was switched from score to measure 8 out of 18 acceptable projects had to be rejected, while 15 rejected projects became eligible for funding. Some referees, of various severity, were grossly inconsistent (z-std fit indexes less than -1.9 or greater than 1.9). The FISM-ProQual-P questionnaire seems a valid and reliable scale. MFRM may help the decision-making process for allocating funds to MS research projects but also in other fields. In repeated assessment exercises it can help the selection of reliable referees. Their severity can be steadily calibrated, thus obviating the need to connect them with other referees assessing the same projects.

  20. Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossink, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning

  1. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    G. van Zyl; P. Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  2. Understanding and managing three-dimensional/four-dimensional model implementations at the project team level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Timo; Levitt, R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an extant, theoretical, social-psychological model that explains the sense-making processes of project managers confronted with a new technology to improve our understanding of project-based innovation processes. The model represents the interlinked processes through which

  3. Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

  4. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  5. Model for setting priority construction project objectives aligned with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr Ruben Ndihokubwayo, Lecturer, Department of Construction Management and. Quantity Surveying, Cape ... architects, and consulting engineers, requesting them to base their responses on a specific construction project .... financial incentives are designed is to attempt to align the interests of the contractor with those of ...

  6. Visualizing project management: models and frameworks for mastering complex systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Forsberg, Kevin; Mooz, Hal; Cotterman, Howard

    2005-01-01

    ...- and beyond that on parameters such as return on investment, market acceptance, or sustainability. Anyone who has lived with the space program, or any other hightech industrial product development, can immediately appreciate this acclaimed book. It addresses and "visualizes" the multidimensional interactions of project management and systems engineering i...

  7. THE MODELLING OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF MANAGEMENT BY REALIZING INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Александрович КУЧМА

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the modeling of organizational structures by virtue of interaction between the basic participants by realizing of investment construction projects. This process is directed at the complex analysis of a problem of quality management by creating of building goods taking into account modern project management tendencies. The topicality of problem is obvious as by realizing of investment construction projects there is a liberal share of uncompleted projects, and in the completed projects actual values considerably exceed budgeted capital expenditures. The introduced model allows managing the project per quality system in all phases of the investment construction project‘s life cycle. It promotes refinement of building goods, improves the rate of successfully completed projects with actual values near budgeted.

  8. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  9. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  10. Modelling income distribution impacts of water sector projects in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, C S; Jones, S

    1991-09-01

    Dynamic analysis was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of water sector projects on agricultural income distribution, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the 5 assumptions in this study of income distribution and water sector projects in Bangladesh. 7 transitions are analyzed for mutually exclusive irrigation and flooding projects: Nonirrigation to 1) LLP irrigation, 2) STW irrigation, 3) DTW irrigation, 4) major gravity irrigation, and manually operated shallow tubewell irrigation (MOSTI) and Flood Control Projects (FCD) of 6) medium flooded to shallow flooded, and 7) deeply flooded to shallow flooded. 5 analytical stages are involved: 1) farm budgets are derived with and without project cropping patterns for each transition. 2) Estimates are generated for value added/hectare from each transition. 3) Assumptions are made about the number of social classes, distribution of land ownership between classes, extent of tenancy for each social class, term of tenancy contracts, and extent of hiring of labor for each social class. 4) Annual value added/hectare is distributed among social classes. 5) Using Gini coefficients and simple ratios, the distribution of income between classes is estimated for with and without transition. Assumption I is that there are 4 social classes defined by land acreage: large farmers (5 acres), medium farmers (1.5-5.0), small farmers, (.01-1.49), and landless. Assumption II is that land distribution follows the 1978 Land Occupancy Survey (LOS). Biases, if any, are indicated. Assumption III is that large farmers sharecrop out 15% of land to small farmers. Assumption IV is that landlords provide nonirrigated crop land and take 50% of the crop, and, under irrigation, provide 50% of the fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation costs and take 50% of the crop. Assumption V is that hired and family labor is assumed to be 40% for small farmers, 60% for medium farmers, and 80% for large farmers. It is understood that

  11. Empowering Cloud Resolving Models Through GPU and Asynchronous IO Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Facilitate use of Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), and Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) with bin...

  12. Concept and Model - Kiwi project deliverable D2.8

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Concept and Model for personalisation serves several goals: •    Introducing relevant concepts of personalisation, user and group modelling, statistical model, reasoning and reason maintenance for personalisation. •    Reviewing the related work in personalisation and understanding how...

  13. Testing the HTA core model: experiences from two pilot projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasternack, Iris; Anttila, Heidi; Mäkelä, Marjukka

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze and describe process and outcomes of two pilot assessments based on the HTA Core Model, discuss the applicability of the model, and explore areas of development. METHODS: Data were gathered from HTA Core Model and pilot Core HTA documents...

  14. Virtual Solar System Project: Building Understanding through Model Building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barab, Sasha A.; Hay, Kenneth E.; Barnett, Michael; Keating, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    Describes an introductory astronomy course for undergraduate students in which students use three-dimensional (3-D) modeling tools to model the solar system and develop rich understandings of astronomical phenomena. Indicates that 3-D modeling can be used effectively in regular undergraduate university courses as a tool to develop understandings…

  15. Microcomputer model for an analysis of the financial feasibility of a mining project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciruelos, J.; Duchene, M.

    1983-01-01

    The model presented permits a simulation of the predicted profitability of a mining project at the stage of feasibility studies by making use of a simple individual computer, the Apple II. The model presented can be used to treat the following three areas: definition of the mode of financing the project and calculation of the financial flows which make it possible to evaluate the profitability of this project; analysis of sensitivity, which makes it possible to determine the most critical variables for the future of the project; analysis of the risk [fr

  16. A Multi-objective model for selection of projects to finance new enterprise SMEs in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R. Coronado-Hernández

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper presents a multi-objective programming model for selection of Projects for Financing New Enterprise SMEs in Colombia with objectivity and transparency in every call. Approach: The model has four social objectives, subject to constraint budget and to the requirements of every summons. The resolution procedure for the model is based on principles of goal programming. Findings: Selection projects subject to the impact within the country. Research limitations: The selection of the projects is restricted by a legal framework, the terms of reference and the budget of the summons. Practical implications: The projects must be viable according to the characteristics of every summons. Originality/value: The suggested model offers an alternative for entities that need to evaluate projects of co-financing for the managerial development of the SMEs with more objectivity and transparency in the assignment of resources.

  17. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  18. MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Marc-André Gosselin; René Lalonde; Nicolas Parent

    2006-01-01

    Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of t...

  19. Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

    OpenAIRE

    Netto, Fernando Antonio Campelo Spencer; Sommer, Camila Garcia; Constantino, Michael de Mello; Cardoso, Michel; Cipriani, Raphael Flávio Fachini; Pereira, Renan Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the par...

  20. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  1. Analysis of CPN-1 sigma models via projective structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, S; Grundland, A M

    2012-01-01

    This paper represents a study of projector solutions to the Euclidean CP N-1 sigma model in two dimensions and their associated surfaces immersed in the su(N) Lie algebra. Any solution for the CP N-1 sigma model defined on the extended complex plane with finite action can be written as a raising operator acting on a holomorphic one. Here the proof is formulated in terms rank-1 projectors so it is explicitly gauge invariant. We apply these results to the analysis of surfaces associated with the CP N-1 models defined using the generalized Weierstrass formula for immersion. We show that the surfaces are conformally parametrized by the Lagrangian density, with finite area equal to the action of the model, and express several other geometrical characteristics of the surface in terms of the physical quantities of the model. Finally, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that a surface be related to a CP N-1 sigma model

  2. Physical Modeling for Anomaly Diagnostics and Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop developed an innovative, model-driven anomaly diagnostic and fault characterization system for electromechanical actuator (EMA) systems to mitigate...

  3. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Özlem Tüz; Şafak Ebesek

    2013-01-01

    Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of th...

  4. Model project for intelligent distribution systems; Modellprojekt fuer intelligente Verteilnetze

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opitsch, Bruno [Siemens AG, Nuernberg (Germany). Div. Smart Grid

    2013-06-01

    Due to the operation of photovoltaic systems, wind power plants and biomass conversion plants, the previous consumers of energy become more and more producers, so-called prosumers. This fact as well as the increasing volatile feeding of electricity from renewable energy sources require smart grids for the power distribution. The public utility Krefeld (Federal Republic of Germany) has launched a smart grid pilot project in Wachtendonk (Federal Republic of Germany) in cooperation with Siemens Smart Grid. With this, further practical experiences in the transformation of a power distribution system to a smart grid should be collected, and expertise should be built up.

  5. THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

  6. GASB's New Financial Reporting Model: Implementation Project for School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, David; Glick, Paul

    1999-01-01

    In June 1999, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) issued its statement on the structure of the basic financial reporting model for state and local governments. Explains the new financial reporting model and reviews the implementation issues that school districts will need to address. (MLF)

  7. Model projections for household energy use in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daioglou, V.; Ruijven, B.J. van; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    The residential sector plays an important role in the energy system of developing countries. In this paper we introduce a bottom up simulation model for household energy use. The model describes energy demand for several end-use functions based on a set of physical drivers, such as floor space and

  8. Model projections for household energy use in India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.J.M.; Isaac, M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is

  9. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  10. Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prušková Kristýna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

  11. Valuation of real options : construction of a model to evaluate real investment projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rutgerson, Mette Rørvik

    2008-01-01

    In this thesis I use two existing models to construct a model that can evaluate the exploration phase and the production phase of a real investment project simultaneously. I assume that the value of the production phase is the value of the outcome of an exploration project and can therefore make a model that combines the two phases. I assume that the exploration phase has on-going investment costs until completion and that the time to completion is uncertain. I allow the exploration project t...

  12. A Project Portfolio Management model adapted to non-profit organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrício Martins Lacerda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As they strive towards greater professionalism in carrying out their activities, non-profit organizations (NPOs have begun paying attention to project management. The non-profit sector (NPS has also begun to adopt strategic planning techniques, thus making the acceptance of project portfolio management (PPM methodology a natural consequence. This article aims to propose a project portfolio management model adapted to the context of NPOs.

  13. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  14. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  15. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  16. Pengembangan Model Outdoor Learning melalui Project Berbasis Local Wisdom dalam Pembelajaran Fisika

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indah kurnia Putri Damayanti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1 menghasilkan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang layak digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika, (2 mengetahui keefektifan penggunaan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom. Penelitian pengembangan ini menggunakan metode pengembangan R & D (Research dan Development. Pada tahap Development, peneliti mengadopsi model 4D, yaitu Define, Design, Develop, dan Disseminate. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang dikembangkan layak digunakan dari segi produk pendukung pembelajaran yang memenuhi kriteria sangat tinggi menurut para ahli, praktis menurut guru dan peserta didik. Lembar observasi yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil ICC dan tes hasil belajar yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil Quest. Selain itu, model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom lebih efektif digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika dilihat dari hasil analisis multivariate dan GLMMDs yang memperoleh nilai signifikansi 0,000 dan MD yang tinggi.   AbstractThis research was aimed to: (1 produce outdoor learning via project based suitable local wisdom model used in physics learning, (2 know the effectiveness in using outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model. This developing research used a R & D method (Research and Development. On Development step, the researcher adopted 4D model, they were Define, Design, Develop, dan Dissemination. The results showed that the developed outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model was suitable to be used in terms of learning support product that was in very high category according expert, practical according teacher and students. In addition the observation sheet was in valid criteria and reliabel based on ICC and the learning outcome test was in valid criteria and reliabel based on Quest. Besides, outdoor learning via

  17. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  18. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  19. Electronic Modeling and Design for Extreme Temperatures Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are developing CAD tools, models and methodologies for electronics design for circuit operation in extreme environments with focus on very low temperatures...

  20. Fault Management: Degradation Signature Detection, Modeling, and Processing Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fault to Failure Progression (FFP) signature modeling and processing is a new method for applying condition-based signal data to detect degradation, to identify...

  1. The Model Vision Project: A Conceptual Framework for Service Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeault, Stanley E.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Described are the conceptualization, implementation, and results to date of the George Peabody College for Teachers Model Center for Severely Handicapped Multi-impaired Children with Visual Impairment as a Primary Handicapping Condition. (Author/IM)

  2. Model Updating and Uncertainty Management for Aircraft Prognostic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal addresses the integration of physics-based damage propagation models with diagnostic measures of current state of health in a mathematically rigorous...

  3. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  4. Collaborative Project. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Dufour, Carolina [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Rodgers, Keith B. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-16

    The focus of this grant was on diagnosing the physical mechanisms controlling upper ocean water mass formation and carbon distribution in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the goal of improving the physics that controls their formation.

  5. Polymer Matrix Composites using Fused Deposition Modeling Technology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an additive manufacturing technology that allows fabrication of complex three-dimensional geometries layer-by-layer. The goal of...

  6. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palit, D.; Malhotra, R.; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability

  7. The Charlotte Action Research Project: A Model for Direct and Mutually Beneficial Community-University Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Elizabeth; Sorensen, Janni; Howarth, Joe

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the evolution of the Charlotte Action Research Project (CHARP), a community-university partnership founded in 2008 at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and focuses particularly on the program's unique organizational structure. Research findings of a project evaluation suggest that the CHARP model's unique…

  8. Re-modeling the ‘project’: escaping project-based culture in digital scholarship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sichani, Anna-Maria

    2016-01-01

    Typically bound to a project-based logic (Burdick et al. 2012), digital humanities projects are often confined within development models that privilege stringent funding cycles of limited budget, strict timelines, and extended and interdisciplinary collaboration among partners. The product is

  9. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  10. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other

  11. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  12. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  13. [Reconstruction and measurement of a digital dental model using grating projection and reverse engineering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhenzhen, Wang; Yi, Lu; Jun, Song; Jun, Chen; Qin, Zhou

    2015-02-01

    This work lays the foundation for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion. A digital dental cast is acquired through grating projection, and model features are measured through reverse engineering. The grating projection system controlled by a computer was projected onto the surface of a normal dental model. Three-dimensional contour data were obtained through multi-angle shooting. A three-dimensional model was constructed, and the model features were analyzed by using reverse engineering. The digital model was compared with the plaster model to determine the accuracy of the measurement system. The structure of three-dimensional reconstruction model was clear. The digital models of two measurements exhibited no significant difference (P > 0.05). When digital and plaster models were measured, we found that the crown length and arch width were not statistically different (P > 0.05), whereas the difference between the crown width and arch length was statistically significant (P model by using the grating projection technique and reverse engineering can be used for dental model measurement in clinic al and scientific research and can provide a scientific method for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion.

  14. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. 

  15. Exploring the relationship between sustainability and project success - conceptual model and expected relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert Silvius

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability is one of the most important challenges of our time. Companies are integrating sustainability in their marketing, communication and their actions. Sustainability has more recently also been linked to project management. The logic behind this link is that sustainability needs change and projects are realizing change. Several studies explored how the concept of sustainability impact project management. The research project reported in this paper elaborates on these works by studying how sustainability affects project success. Project managers, logically, strive for project success and considering sustainability may influence this success. Based upon a review of relevant literature, the paper develops a conceptual model that provides a more detailed understanding of how considering different dimensions of sustainability may affect the individual criteria of project success. The study also provides a conceptual mapping of the different relationships between dimensions of sustainability and criteria of project success. This mapping shows that the most positive relationships are expected for the relationship between sustainability and the success criteria stakeholder satisfaction, future readiness and controlled project execution. The expected relationship between considering sustainability and completing the project on schedule and within budget is uncertain.

  16. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-07-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

  17. PENGEMBANGAN TUGAS AKHIR MELALUI PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN GENERIC GREEN SKILLS SISWA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Ana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of students’ final project through Project-based Learning (PBLapproach was conducted in the workshop of family resource management (FRM in 7th semester.PBL approach is expected to give contribution to students’ motivation and experience to finish their final assignments of FRM workshop. The objectives of the research are to: (1 develop PBL model for the students’final project; (2 produce learning instruments of PBL such as lesson plans, manual of FRM workshop, and scientific report of FRM workshop. The method of the study was using research and development of Plomp model and quasi experiment for testing the effectiveness of the model. The research subjects were the students from the class of 2009 and 2010 who joined FRM workshop course. The study produced model, lesson plans, and manual of FRM workshop as the outputs. The result showed that project based learning model was effective to improve the students’ generic green skills for project management, collaborative skills, and communicative competence. Keywords: final project, generic green skill, family resource management, Project-Based Learning

  18. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula. The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea. Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

  19. Development of CFD Approaches for Modeling Advanced Concepts of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Test Facilities Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The project will be developing a CFD approach that can handle the additional complexities needed in a NTP testing facility when modeling the combustion processes in...

  20. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact

  1. Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

    2017-12-01

    There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

  2. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide...... of regression models. Many subtleties arise when scaling from vital rate regressions to population-level patterns, so we provide a set of diagnostics and guidelines to ensure that models are biologically plausible. Moreover, IPMs can exploit a large existing suite of analytical tools developed for Matrix...

  3. Governance model for integrating organizational project management (OPM with corporate practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Mossalam

    2017-12-01

    Having proposed the model, it needed validation, which was done through implementing the model in organizations through automation projects. The implementation resulted in some changes in the model to achieve the required levels of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. These changes were incorporated into the model and were reflected in its modified version. Finally, the paper highlighted the recommended improvements that would enhance the future implementation of the model.

  4. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  5. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  6. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  7. The PRODIGY project--the iterative development of the release one model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, I N; Sugden, B; Booth, N; Sowerby, M

    1999-01-01

    We summarise the findings of the first two research phases of the PRODIGY project and describe the guidance model for Release One of the ensuing nationally available system. This model was a result of the iterative design process of the PRODIGY research project, which took place between 1995 and 1998 in up to 183 general practices in the England. Release One of PRODIGY is now being rolled out to all (27,000) General Practitioners in England during 1999-2000.

  8. Project MAP: Model Accounting Plan for Special Education. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Robert J.

    The Model Accounting Plan (MAP) is a demographic accounting system designed to meet three major goals related to improving planning, evaluation, and monitoring of special education programs. First, MAP provides local-level data for administrators and parents to monitor the progress, transition patterns, expected attainments, and associated costs…

  9. Projected Statewide Impact of "Opportunity Culture" School Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly, Christen; Dean, Stephanie; Hassel, Emily Ayscue; Hassel, Bryan C.

    2014-01-01

    This brief estimates the impact of a statewide implementation of Opportunity Culture models, using North Carolina as an example. Impacts estimated include student learning outcomes, gross state product, teacher pay, and other career characteristics, and state income tax revenue. Estimates indicate the potential for a statewide transition to…

  10. Macro-System Model Project #AN011 (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. F.; Diakov, V.; Sa, T. J.; Goldsby, M.

    2010-06-08

    A review of the Macro-System Model for hydrogen production pathways analysis, including objectives, accomplishments, collaborations, and future work. Presented at the 2010 U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, June 7-11, 2010, in Washington, DC.

  11. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  12. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  13. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  14. Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhe

    2018-03-01

    In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

  15. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  16. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  17. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  18. Particle-number-projected Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov study with effective shell model interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqbool, I.; Sheikh, J. A.; Ganai, P. A.; Ring, P.

    2011-04-01

    We perform the particle-number-projected mean-field study using the recently developed symmetry-projected Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) equations. Realistic calculations have been performed in sd- and fp-shell nuclei using the shell model empirical interactions, USD and GXPFIA. It is demonstrated that the mean-field results for energy surfaces, obtained with these shell model interactions, are quite similar to those obtained using the density functional approaches. Further, it is shown that particle-number-projected results, for neutron-rich isotopes, can lead to different ground-state shapes in comparison to bare HFB calculations.

  19. Model projections for household energy use in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vries, Bert J.M. de; Isaac, Morna; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO 2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO 2 emissions via increased electricity use. - Highlights: ► A bottom-up model for residential energy use was developed and applied to India. ► The model distinguishes five end-use functions and rural/urban income quintiles. ► We explore consequences of income distribution and electrification on energy use. ► Equal income and electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels. ► Higher CO 2 emissions from increased electricity use are a trade-off.

  20. Competency-Based Model for Predicting Construction Project Managers Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Dainty, A. R. J.; Cheng, M.; Moore, D. R.

    2005-01-01

    Using behavioral competencies to influence human resource management decisions is gaining popularity in business organizations. This study identifies the core competencies associated with the construction management role and further, develops a predictive model to inform human resource selection and development decisions within large construction organizations. A range of construction managers took part in behavioral event interviews where staffs were asked to recount critical management inci...

  1. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T.; Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL -1 ]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT -1 ]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and statistical

  2. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  3. Goleman-Boyatzis Model of Emotional Intelligence for Dealing with Problems in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vincent Livesey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As projects grow in size and complexity the sizes of teams needed to manage them also increases. This places greater emphasis on the need for the project manager to develop people management skills, commonly called soft skills, of which emotional intelligence (EI has been recognised as an important component. The objective of this research was to investigate the relevance of the Goleman-Boyatzis model of EI in dealing with the problems in large projects identified via a literature review. To achieve this end, a Delphi study using project managers who had been involved in the management of projects in excess of $500 million was used. The responses from the Delphi panel were analysed and the results showed that the competencies contained in the Goleman-Boyatzis model had a relevance of 95% or greater to the problems presented to the panel. A ranking of the various competencies contained within the model was also developed, some competencies being found to be more important than others. By confirming the importance of emotional intelligence, as described by the model, this research adds to the understanding of the necessary skills needed by a project manager to successfully manage large projects.

  4. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

  5. FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF THE MATERIAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR PROJECTS OF THE CREATION OF NEW TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Danshyna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to problem of material management arising in the implementation of projects for the development and creation (modernization of the new techniques. The uniqueness of the projects, their limit on the cost and time does not allow the use of traditional approaches to resource management. Such projects are often implemented in the development of companies; where it is not possible to abandon the traditional operating methods of management. The aim of the article is a formalization of the process of material management of projects, a description of its information flows for integrate into the project management practices and for improve the efficiency of material management. For the systematization of information arising from the material resources management, invited the set-theoretic representation of the management process. According with the requirements of project management standards were described the sets and defined rules of their transformation. Specification of the set-theoretic representation helped to establish the area and limits of the modelling process. Further decomposition process became the basis of the functional model, constructed in accordance with the methodology IDEF 0. A graphical representation of the model allows you to visualize the process at different levels of detail. For specification of issues related to the organization and promotion of material flow, were developed functional models of sub-processes and were described the identified data-flows. For the harmonization of process and project approaches formulated conditions for evaluating the efficiency of material management. The developed models can be the basis for designing the structure of companies, for regulation of their project activities, as well as for establishing an information system of management resources of projects.

  6. Human eye modelling for ophthalmic simulators project for clinic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Andrea; Santos, Adimir dos; Yoriyaz, Helio

    2002-01-01

    Most of eye tumors are treated by surgical means, which involves the enucleation of affected eyes. In terms of treatment and control of diseases, there is brachytherapy, which often utilizes small applicator of Co-60, I-125, Ru-106, Ir-192, etc. These methods are shown to be very efficient but highly cost. The objective of this work is propose a detailed simulator modelling for eye characterization. Additionally, this study can contribute to design and build a new applicator in order to reduce the cost and to allow more patients to be treated

  7. Robust Proactive Project Scheduling Model for the Stochastic Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the project budget version of the stochastic discrete time/cost trade-off problem (SDTCTP-B from the viewpoint of the robustness in the scheduling. Given the project budget and a set of activity execution modes, each with uncertain activity time and cost, the objective of the SDTCTP-B is to minimize the expected project makespan by determining each activity’s mode and starting time. By modeling the activity time and cost using interval numbers, we propose a proactive project scheduling model for the SDTCTP-B based on robust optimization theory. Our model can generate robust baseline schedules that enable a freely adjustable level of robustness. We convert our model into its robust counterpart using a form of the mixed-integer programming model. Extensive experiments are performed on a large number of randomly generated networks to validate our model. Moreover, simulation is used to investigate the trade-off between the advantages and the disadvantages of our robust proactive project scheduling model.

  8. Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

    2017-05-01

    Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

  9. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

  10. DOE International Collaboration; Seismic Modeling and Simulation Capability Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, Lara D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Settgast, Randolph R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2010-10-12

    The following report describes the development and exercise of a new capability at LLNL to model complete, non-linear, seismic events in 3-dimensions with a fully-coupled soil structure interaction response. This work is specifically suited to nuclear reactor design because this design space is exempt from the Seismic Design requirements of International Building Code (IBC) and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) [4,2]. Both IBC and ASCE-7 exempt nuclear reactors because they are considered “structures that require special consideration” and their design is governed only by “other regulations”. In the case of nuclear reactors, the regulations are from both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [10] and ASCE 43 [3]. This current framework of design guidance, coupled to this new and evolving capability to provide high fidelity design solutions as presented in this report, enables the growing field of Performance-Based Design (PBD) for nuclear reactors subjected to earthquake ground motions.

  11. AeroCom INSITU Project: Comparing modeled and measured aerosol optical properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Elisabeth; Schmeisser, Lauren; Schulz, Michael; Fiebig, Markus; Ogren, John; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steve; Kokkola, Harri; Laakso, Anton; Myhre, Gunnar; Randles, Cynthia; da Silva, Arlindo; Stier, Phillip; Skeie, Ragnehild; Takemura, Toshihiko; van Noije, Twan; Zhang, Kai

    2016-04-01

    AeroCom, an open international collaboration of scientists seeking to improve global aerosol models, recently initiated a project comparing model output to in-situ, surface-based measurements of aerosol optical properties. The model/measurement comparison project, called INSITU, aims to evaluate the performance of a suite of AeroCom aerosol models with site-specific observational data in order to inform iterative improvements to model aerosol modules. Surface in-situ data has the unique property of being traceable to physical standards, which is an asset in accomplishing the overall goal of bettering the accuracy of aerosols processes and the predicative capability of global climate models. Here we compare dry, in-situ aerosol scattering and absorption data from ~75 surface, in-situ sites from various global aerosol networks (including NOAA, EUSAAR/ACTRIS and GAW) with a simulated optical properties from a suite of models participating in the AeroCom project. We report how well models reproduce aerosol climatologies for a variety of time scales, aerosol characteristics and behaviors (e.g., aerosol persistence and the systematic relationships between aerosol optical properties), and aerosol trends. Though INSITU is a multi-year endeavor, preliminary phases of the analysis suggest substantial model biases in absorption and scattering coefficients compared to surface measurements, though the sign and magnitude of the bias varies with location. Spatial patterns in the biases highlight model weaknesses, e.g., the inability of models to properly simulate aerosol characteristics at sites with complex topography. Additionally, differences in modeled and measured systematic variability of aerosol optical properties suggest that some models are not accurately capturing specific aerosol behaviors, for example, the tendency of in-situ single scattering albedo to decrease with decreasing aerosol extinction coefficient. The endgoal of the INSITU project is to identify specific

  12. Modeling Tool to Quantify Metal Sources in Stormwater Discharges at Naval Facilities (NESDI Project 455)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    demonstration/validation project to assess the use of the urban stormwater model Windows Source Loading and Management Model (WinSLAMM) to characterize...the urban stormwater model Windows Source Loading and Management Model (WinSlamm) to characterize sources of copper and zinc in storm runoff at Navy...are ubiquitous contaminants found in stormwater discharges in urban and industrialized areas. These contaminants originate from a variety of sources

  13. Conceptual Model Development for Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat: Support for USACE Navigation Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    model in order to provide a relative suitability of habitat in areas with overlapping critical habitat designation and USACE projects. The model results...2006). The model will be formulated based on the key spatial parameters and regional value ranges to determine relative nesting habitat suitability ...Guantanamo Bay, Cuba: A comparison of habitat suitability index models . Chelonian Conservation and Biology 5(2):175–187. Varela-Acevedo, E., K. L

  14. Simplified modeling photo-ionisation of uranium in Silva project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodin, B.; Pourre-Brichot, P.; Valadier, L.

    2000-01-01

    SILVA is a process which targets 235 U by photo-ionization. It is therefore important to compute the proportion of ionized atoms depending on the properties of the lasers. The interaction between atoms and lasers occurs via the link between the Maxwell and Schroedinger equations. This kind of approach is only feasible for a few simple cases: e.g. wave plane or simple laser profiling. Introducing the characteristics of SILVA, computation time increases substantially (several hundred days per kilogram of vapor). To circumvent this problem, we wrote a program (Jackpot) that treats photo-ionization by a simplified model: kinetics equations. However, various optical components were introduced with absorption factor by wavelength, to account for the effects of optics systems on the trajectory. Instead of seeking the complex wavefunction solutions of the Maxwell-Schroedinger equations, we solve a system where the unknown values are a set of populations. The size of the set depends only on the number of hold points in the process. Recent work shows that we can converge towards the same results as the Maxwell-Schroedinger system if we can fit the cross-sections of the kinetic system correctly. As to the optical aspect, Jackpot can handle diffraction. In this case, it solves the propagation equation of an electric field by a double Fourier transform method. For interactions with mirrors, the new direction of a ray is calculated with Descartes law, applying a numerical phase mask to the electric field. We account for diaphragmation mechanisms as well as the absorption law for each mirror, by a real factor by wavelength. Jackpot is simple to use and can be used to predict experimental results. Jackpot is now a library calling by a script written in Python. Changes are being made for a closer approach to reality (real laser, new photo-ionization model)

  15. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  16. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  17. PERLUASAN IMPLEMENTASI PENDIDIKAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING BAGI REMAJA PUTUS SEKOLAH KORBAN GEMPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moerdiyanto Moerdiyanto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Widen Implementation of Entrepreneurship Education Using Project Based Learning Model for Earthquake Victim Drop Out Teenagers. This action research aims at figuring out achievement level of entrepreneurship personalities mastering and business skills held by drop out teenagers after taking part in real business learning experience using Project Based Learning. The population for this study is all of the earthquake victim drop out teenagers in Piyungan, Pleret, and Sewon Bantul Yogyakarta Special Territory.  Interviewed, questionnaire, observation, and documentation are employed to collect data. The results show that entrepreneurship education using Project Based Learning model leads to highly mastering of entrepreneurship personalities (soft skill and highly mastering of business skills (hard skill. Furthermore, through this study Kelompok Usaha Mandiri (Group of Independent Business is created, and then the drop out teenagers can run their own business.   Keyword: business skill, project based learning, soft skill, hard skill   Abstrak: Perluasan Implementasi Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Model Project Based Learning Bagi Remaja Putus Sekolah Korban Gempa. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan penguasaan kepribadian (jiwa kewirausahaan dan keterampilan usaha yang dimiliki Remaja Putus Sekolah (RPS setelah memperoleh pengalaman belajar bisnis riil dengan model Project Based Learning. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua remaja putus sekolah korban gempa di Kecamatan Piyungan, Kecamatan Pleret, dan Kecamatan Sewon Kabupaten Bantul DIY. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara, angket, observasi, dokumentasi, dan pemberian tugas. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemberian pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan menggunakan model Project Based Learning bisa berhasil dengan baik yang ditunjukkan dengan

  18. DIRECTED–PROJECT BASED LEARNING AS LANGUAGE LEARNING MODEL: DESIGNING, DEVELOPING AND FIELD TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Pratiwi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is developing English learning model to increase students’ language skills in English subject for VIII graders of SMP N 1 Uram Jaya through Directed-Project Based Learning (DPjBL implementation. This study is designed in Research and Development (R & D using ADDIE model development. The researcher collected the data through the test, questionnaire, observation, and interview which were then analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The study revealed that Directed-Project Based Learning (DPjBL implementation is significantly able to be one learning model allowing to increase student’s language skills.

  19. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  20. Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The agricultural sector is the most common suspected source of nutrient pollution in Irish rivers. However, it is also often the most difficult source to characterise due to its predominantly diffuse nature. Particulate phosphorus in surface water and dissolved phosphorus in groundwater are of particular concern in Irish water bodies. Hence the further development of models and indices to assess diffuse sources of contaminants are required for use by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide support for river basin planning. Understanding connectivity in the landscape is a vital component of characterising the source-pathway-receptor relationships for water-borne contaminants, and hence is a priority in this research. The DIFFUSE Project will focus on connectivity modelling and incorporation of connectivity into sediment, nutrient and pesticide risk mapping. The Irish approach to understanding and managing natural water bodies has developed substantially in recent years assisted by outputs from multiple research projects, including modelling and analysis tools developed during the Pathways and CatchmentTools projects. These include the Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, which are an example of research output that is used by the EPA to support catchment management. The PIP maps integrate an understanding of the pollution pressures and mobilisation pathways and, using the source-pathways-receptor model, provide a scientific basis for evaluation of mitigation measures. These maps indicate the potential risk posed by nitrate and phosphate from diffuse agricultural sources to surface and groundwater receptors and delineate critical source areas (CSAs) as a means of facilitating the targeting of mitigation measures. Building on this previous research, the DIFFUSE Project will develop revised and new catchment managements tools focused on connectivity, sediment, phosphorus and pesticides. The DIFFUSE project will strive to identify the state

  1. Model and Algorithm for Substantiating Solutions for Organization of High-Rise Construction Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Vladimir; Anisimov, Evgeniy; Chernysh, Anatoliy

    2018-03-01

    In the paper the models and the algorithm for the optimal plan formation for the organization of the material and logistical processes of the high-rise construction project and their financial support are developed. The model is based on the representation of the optimization procedure in the form of a non-linear problem of discrete programming, which consists in minimizing the execution time of a set of interrelated works by a limited number of partially interchangeable performers while limiting the total cost of performing the work. The proposed model and algorithm are the basis for creating specific organization management methodologies for the high-rise construction project.

  2. Hydrodynamic Modeling Analysis of Union Slough Restoration Project in Snohomish River, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping

    2010-01-01

    A modeling study was conducted to evaluate additional project design scenarios at the Union Slough restoration/mitigation site during low tide and to provide recommendations for finish-grade elevations to achieve desired drainage. This was accomplished using the Snohomish River hydrodynamic model developed previously by PNNL.

  3. The Model Standards Project: Creating Inclusive Systems for LGBT Youth in Out-of-Home Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilber, Shannan; Reyes, Carolyn; Marksamer, Jody

    2006-01-01

    This article describes the Model Standards Project (MSP), a collaboration of Legal Services for Children and the National Center for Lesbian Rights. The MSP developed a set of model professional standards governing the care of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) youth in out-of-home care. This article provides an overview of the…

  4. A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; Bijwaard, G.E.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Bonneux, L.

    2015-01-01

    Background : Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often

  5. Implementation of channel-routing routines in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li Wang; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliott; Shuhui Dun; Sergey Lapin; Fritz R. Fiedler; Dennis C. Flanagan

    2010-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous-simulation, watershed hydrology and erosion model. It is an important tool for water erosion simulation owing to its unique functionality in representing diverse landuse and management conditions. Its applicability is limited to relatively small watersheds since its current version does...

  6. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...

  7. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The inherent uncertainty in climate models is one of the most important uncertainties in climate change impact studies. In recent years, several uncertainty quantification methods based on multi-model ensembles have been suggested. Most of these methods assume that the climate models...... are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  8. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    The inherent uncertainty in climate models is one of the most important uncertainties in climate change impact studies. In recent years, several uncertainty quantification methods based on multi-model ensembles have been suggested. Most of these methods assume that the climate models...... are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  9. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  10. A Model of Successful School Leadership from the International Successful School Principalship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gurr

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP has been actively conducting research about the work of successful principals since 2001. Findings from four project books and eight models derived from this project are synthesised into a model of successful school leadership. Building on Gurr, Drysdale and Mulford’s earlier model, the work of school leaders is described as engaging within the school context to influence student and school outcomes through interventions in teaching and learning, school capacity building, and the wider context. The qualities a leader brings to their role, a portfolio approach to using leadership ideas, constructing networks, collaborations and partnerships, and utilising accountability and evaluation for evidence-informed improvement, are important additional elements. The model is applicable to all in leadership roles in schools.

  11. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  12. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  13. An incremental procedure model for e-learning projects at universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pahlke, Friedrich

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available E-learning projects at universities are produced under different conditions than in industry. The main characteristic of many university projects is that these are realized quasi in a solo effort. In contrast, in private industry the different, interdisciplinary skills that are necessary for the development of e-learning are typically supplied by a multimedia agency.A specific procedure tailored for the use at universities is therefore required to facilitate mastering the amount and complexity of the tasks.In this paper an incremental procedure model is presented, which describes the proceeding in every phase of the project. It allows a high degree of flexibility and emphasizes the didactical concept – instead of the technical implementation. In the second part, we illustrate the practical use of the theoretical procedure model based on the project “Online training in Genetic Epidemiology”.

  14. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4). Technical reference manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User`s Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193).

  15. Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy J. Abel

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with associated measures of uncertainty. The models are compared based on Bayesian posterior model probabilities, which are then used to provide model-averaged forecasts. Methods: The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. Bayesian forecasts to the year 2032 are obtained based on a range of models, including autoregression models, stochastic volatility models and random variance shift models. The computational steps to fit each of these models using the OpenBUGS software via R are illustrated. Results: We show that the Bayesian approach is adept in capturing multiple sources of uncertainty in population projections, including model uncertainty. The inclusion of non-constant variance improves the fit of the models and provides more realistic predictive uncertainty levels. The forecasting methodology is assessed through fitting the models to various truncated data series.

  16. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  17. Modeling and Simulation Optimization and Feasibility Studies for the Neutron Detection without Helium-3 Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ely, James H.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Swinhoe, Martyn T.; Lintereur, Azaree T.

    2013-01-01

    This report details the results of the modeling and simulation work accomplished for the ‘Neutron Detection without Helium-3’ project during the 2011 and 2012 fiscal years. The primary focus of the project is to investigate commercially available technologies that might be used in safeguards applications in the relatively near term. Other technologies that are being developed may be more applicable in the future, but are outside the scope of this study.

  18. Third Generation Turkish Children and Bilingual Bicultural Education Models: Hessen State KOALA Project

    OpenAIRE

    Arslangilay, A. Selcen; Özdemir, M. Çağatay

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this research is to evaluate KOALA Project which aims to support the bilingual and bicultural children, that is developed under Frankfurt Model in Hessen State, Germany. It is aimed to assess the Project with views of Turkish teachers, German classroom teachers, German school principals, Turkish students and Turkish parents. In the research, qualitative method and phenomology design is used. In order to choose the participants of the study, purposive sampling method and maximum var...

  19. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  20. Application and project portfolio valuation using enterprise architecture and business requirements modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartel, Dick; Steen, Maarten W. A.; Lankhorst, Marc M.

    2012-05-01

    This article describes an architecture-based approach to IT valuation. This approach offers organisations an instrument to valuate their application and project portfolios and to make well-balanced decisions about IT investments. The value of a software application is assessed in terms of its contribution to a selection of business goals. Based on such assessments, the value of different applications can be compared, and requirements for innovation, development, maintenance and phasing out can be identified. IT projects are proposed to realise the requirements. The value of each project is assessed in terms of the value it adds to one or more applications. This value can be obtained by relating the 'as-is' application portfolio to the 'to-be' portfolio that is being proposed by the project portfolio. In this way, projects can be ranked according to their added value, given a certain selection of business goals. The approach uses ArchiMate to model the relationship between software applications, business processes, services and products. In addition, two language extensions are used to model the relationship of these elements to business goals and requirements and to projects and project portfolios. The approach is illustrated using the portfolio method of Bedell and has been implemented in BiZZdesign Architect.

  1. Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

    2017-11-01

    Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

  2. The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

  3. Collaborative Management of Complex Major Construction Projects: AnyLogic-Based Simulation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex supply chain system collaborative management of major construction projects effectively integrates the different participants in the construction project. This paper establishes a simulation model based on AnyLogic to reveal the collaborative elements in the complex supply chain management system and the modes of action as well as the transmission problems of the intent information. Thus it is promoting the participants to become an organism with coordinated development and coevolution. This study can help improve the efficiency and management of the complex system of major construction projects.

  4. Analysis of the speckle properties in a laser projection system based on a human eye model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhe; Wang, Anting; Ma, Qianli; Ming, Hai

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, the properties of the speckle that is observed by humans in laser projection systems are theoretically analyzed. The speckle pattern on the fovea of the human retina is numerically simulated by introducing a chromatic human eye model. The results show that the speckle contrast experienced by humans is affected by the light intensity of the projected images and the wavelength of the laser source when considering the paracentral vision. Furthermore, the image quality is also affected by these two parameters. We believe that these results are useful for evaluating the speckle noise in laser projection systems.

  5. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  6. Designing a Standard Model for Development and Execution of an Analysis Project Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Willis, Leslie T.

    2012-01-01

    Within the Operational Simulation and Analysis (OS and A) branch of the U.S. Army Armament Research, Development, and Engineering Center (ARDEC) at Picatinny Arsenal, there exists no standard model for development and execution of an Analysis Project Plan. A project plan is a formal document which, when agreed upon by parties involved, guides the execution and control of a project. Having such a plan is important to the OS and A branch and ARDEC as a whole because it documents decisions, faci...

  7. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  8. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2017-07-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  9. A Framework for Improving Project Performance of Standard Design Models in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabbab Al-Otaib

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Improving project performance in the construction industry poses several challenges for stakeholders. Recently, there have been frequent calls for the importance of adopting standardisation in improving construction design as well as the process and a focus on learning mapping from other industries. The Saudi Ministry of Interior (SMoI has adopted a new Standard Design Model (SDM approach for the development of its construction programme to effectively manage its complex project portfolio and improve project performance. A review of existing literature indicates that despite the adoption of SDM repetitive projects, which enable learning from past mistakes and improving the performance of future projects, it has been realised that there is a lack of learning instruments to capture, store and disseminate Lessons Learnt (LL. This research proposes a framework for improving the project performance of SDMs in the Saudi construction industry. Eight case studies related to a typical standard design project were performed that included interviews with of 24 key stakeholders who are involved in the planning and implementation of SDM projects within the SMoI. The research identified 14 critical success factors CSFs have a direct impact on the SDM project performance. These are classified into three main CSF-related clusters: adaptability to the context; contract management; and construction management. A framework, which comprises the identified 14 CSFs, was developed, refined and validated through a workshop with 12 key stakeholders in the SMoI construction programme. Additionally, a framework implementation process map was developed. Web-based tools and KM were identified as core factors in the framework implementation strategy. Although many past CSF-related studies were conducted to develop a range of construction project performance improvement frameworks, the paper provides the first initiative to develop a framework to improve the performance of

  10. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  11. Statistical downscaling of regional climate model output to achieve projections of precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric M. Laflamme

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work we perform a statistical downscaling by applying a CDF transformation function to local-level daily precipitation extremes (from NCDC station data and corresponding NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM output to derive local-scale projections. These high-resolution projections are essential in assessing the impacts of projected climate change. The downscaling method is performed on 58 locations throughout New England, and from the projected distribution of extreme precipitation local-level 25-year return levels are calculated. To obtain uncertainty estimates for return levels, three procedures are employed: a parametric bootstrapping with mean corrected confidence intervals, a non-parametric bootstrapping with BCa (bias corrected and acceleration intervals, and a Bayesian model. In all cases, results are presented via distributions of differences in return levels between predicted and historical periods. Results from the three procedures show very few New England locations with significant increases in 25-year return levels from the historical to projected periods. This may indicate that projected trends in New England precipitation tend to be statistically less significant than suggested by many studies. For all three procedures, downscaled results are highly dependent on RCM and GCM model choice.

  12. Global warming projection in the 21st century based on an observational data-driven model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xubin; Geil, Kerrie

    2016-10-01

    Global warming has been projected primarily by Earth system models (ESMs). Complementary to this approach, here we provide the decadal and long-term global warming projections based on an observational data-driven model. This model combines natural multidecadal variability with anthropogenic warming that depends on the history of annual emissions. It shows good skill in decadal hindcasts with the recent warming slowdown well captured. While our ensemble mean temperature projections at the end of 21st century are consistent with those from ESMs, our decadal warming projection of 0.35 (0.30-0.43) K from 1986-2005 to 2016-2035 is within their projection range and only two-thirds of the ensemble mean from ESMs. Our predicted warming rate in the next few years is slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a greater warming rate. Our projection uncertainty range is just one-third of that from ESMs, and its implication is also discussed.

  13. Rigorous vectorial modeling for polarized illumination and projection pupil in OPC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiaolin; Song, Hua; Lucas, Kevin; Ward, Brian; Shiely, James

    2008-05-01

    High NA and Ultra-High NA (NA>1.0) applications for low k1 imaging strongly demand the adoption of polarized illumination as a resolution enhancement technology since proper illumination polarization configuration can greatly improve the image contrast hence pattern printing fidelity and the effectiveness of optical proximity correction (OPC). However, current OPC/RET modeling software can only model the light source polarization of simple types, such as TE, TM, X, Y, or sector polarization with relatively simple configuration. Realistic polarized light used in scanners is more complex than the aforementioned simple ones. As a result, simulation accuracy and quality of the OPC result will be compromised by the simplification of the light source polarization modeling in the traditional approach. With ever shrinking CD error budget in the manufacturing of IC's at advanced technology nodes, more accurate and comprehensive illumination source modeling for lithography simulations and OPC/RET is needed. On the other hand, for polarized illumination to be fully effective, ideally all the components in the optical lithography system should not alter the polarization state of light during its propagation from illuminator to wafer surface. In current OPC modeling tools, it is typically assumed that the amplitude and polarization state of the light do not change as it passes through the projection lens pupil, i.e. the polarization aberration of projection lens pupil is ignored. However, in reality, the projection lens pupil of the scanner does change the amplitude and the polarization state to some extent, and ignorance of projection pupil induced polarization state and amplitude changes will cause CD errors un-tolerable at the 45nm device generation and beyond. We developed an OPC-deployable modeling approach to model arbitrarily polarized light source and arbitrarily polarized projection lens pupil. Based on polarization state vector descriptions of a general illumination

  14. Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Youngsoo [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.; Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.

    2017-09-01

    Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted ℓ2-norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.

  15. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lauwaet, Dirk; Hooyberghs, Hans; Maiheu, Bino; Lefebvre, Wouter; Driesen, Guy; Looy, Stijn Van; Ridder, Koen De

    2015-01-01

    A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005) and future (2081–2100) climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban hea...

  16. Proposal of a Model for Balancing Resources between Projects in the Electromagnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindvall, G.; Wiss, A.

    2002-02-01

    The authors propose a model for allocation of funds between existing and proposed projects within the research field named 'Electromagnetic weapons and protection.' Central parts in the model are zero-base budgeting connected to a so called 'research ladder,' identification of influence factors and matrices used in statistics and decision theory. The model is to be verified during the spring of 2002, after which a revised version of this report will be published.

  17. An Optimization Model of Carbon Sinks in CDM Forestry Projects Based on Interval Linear Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjin Zhao

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the first general optimization model for complex systems with uncertain parameters and decision variables represented as intervals in CDM forestry projects. We work through a specific example of the optimization method developed for a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM forestry project in Inner Mongolia, China. This model is designed to optimize the carbon sink capacity of the new forests, and can deal with uncertainties in the carbon sink capacity, average annual rainfall, ecological parameters, and biological characteristics of tree species. The uncertain inputs are presented in the form of intervals, as are several of the optimized output variables. Compared with the project’s originally recommended scheme, the optimized model will absorb and fix between 1,142 and 885,762 tonnes of extra carbon dioxide. Moreover, the ecological and environmental benefits of the project are also raised to various extents.

  18. Atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.

    1991-07-01

    Radiation doses that may have resulted from operations at the Hanford Site are being estimated in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. One of the project subtasks, atmospheric transport, is responsible for estimating the transport, diffusion and deposition of radionuclides released to the atmosphere. This report discusses modeling transport and diffusion in the atmospheric pathway. It is divided into three major sections. The first section of the report presents the atmospheric modeling approach selected following discussion with the Technical Steering Panel that directs the HEDR Project. In addition, the section discusses the selection of the MESOI/MESORAD suite of atmospheric dispersion models that form the basis for initial calculations and future model development. The second section of the report describes alternative modeling approaches that were considered. Emphasis is placed on the family of plume and puff models that are based on Gaussian solution to the diffusion equations. The final portion of the section describes the performance of various models. The third section of the report discusses factors that bear on the selection of an atmospheric transport modeling approach for HEDR. These factors, which include the physical setting of the Hanford Site and the available meteorological data, serve as constraints on model selection. Five appendices are included in the report. 39 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  19. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

  20. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  1. Hydro-mechanical modelling of induced seismicity during the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zbinden, Dominik; Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Kraft, Toni; Diehl, Tobias; Wiemer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    The St. Gallen deep geothermal project in 2013 was the second geothermal project in Switzerland with the objective of power production after the Enhanced Geothermal System in Basel in 2006. In St. Gallen, the seismic risk was expected to be smaller than in Basel, since the hydrothermal resource was an aquifer at a depth of about 4 km, not expected to require permeability enhancement and associated hydroshearing of the rock. However, after an injectivity test and two acid stimulations, unexpected gas release from an unidentified source forced the operators to inject drilling mud into the well to fight the gas kick. Subsequently, several seismic events were induced, the largest one having a local magnitude of 3.5, which was distinctly felt by the nearby living population. Even though the induced seismicity could not be handled properly, the community still strongly supported the geothermal project. The project was however halted because the target formation was not as permeable as required to deliver sufficient power. Still, controlling induced seismicity during deep geothermal projects is a key factor to successfully operate future geothermal projects. Hence, it is crucial to understand the physical relations of fluid injection, pressure and stress response at reservoir depth as well as associated induced seismicity. To date, these processes are yet not fully understood. In this study, we aim at developing a hydro-mechanical model reproducing the main features of the induced seismic sequence at the St. Gallen geothermal site. Here, we present the conceptual model and preliminary results accounting for hydraulic and mechanical parameters from the geothermal well, geological information from a seismic survey conducted in the St. Gallen region, and actual fluid injection rates from the injectivity tests. In a future step, we are going to use this model to simulate the physical interaction of injected fluid, gas release, hydraulic response of the rock, and induced

  2. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

  3. Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W

    2012-06-01

    This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the

  4. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  5. INFORMATION MODELING OF LIFE CYCLE OF HIGH-RISE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusakova Elena Aleksandrovna

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available To date, many years’ experience in the construction and operation of high-rise buildings has been accumulated. Its analysis reveals not only the engineering and organizational-technological specifics of such projects, but also systemic gaps in the field of management. In the implementation of large-scale and unique projects for high-rise buildings, the problems and tasks of improving approaches to managing the full life cycle of projects and methods, which will improve their competitiveness, become topical. The systems being used have largely exhausted their resource efficiency, which is associated with automation of traditional “inherited” processes and management structures, as well as development of IT-systems focused on digitalization of the activities of construction company, rather than the project. To solve these problems, it is proposed to carry out: reengineering of the schemes of information interaction between the project’s participants; formation of integrated digital environment for the life cycle of the project; development of systems for integrating data management and project management. Subject: problems, approaches and methods of digitalization of project’s life cycle management in relation to the specifics and features of high-rise buildings. Research objectives: substantiation of the most perspective approaches and methods of information modeling of high-rise construction as the basis for managing the full life cycle of the given project. Materials and methods: the experience of digitalization of design, construction, operation and development of high-rise buildings, presented in specialized literature, is analyzed. The methods for integrating information models of various stages of project’s life cycle and for information interaction of project’s participants are considered. Results: the concept of forming a single digital environment for the project is proposed, taking into account the features of the life

  6. Integrated Vehicle Health Management Project-Modeling and Simulation for Wireless Sensor Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallett, Thomas M.; Mueller, Carl H.; Griner, James H., Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the efforts in modeling and simulating electromagnetic transmission and reception as in a wireless sensor network through a realistic wing model for the Integrated Vehicle Health Management project at the Glenn Research Center. A computer model in a standard format for an S-3 Viking aircraft was obtained, converted to a Microwave Studio software format, and scaled to proper dimensions in Microwave Studio. The left wing portion of the model was used with two antenna models, one transmitting and one receiving, to simulate radio frequency transmission through the wing. Transmission and reception results were inconclusive.

  7. Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

    KAUST Repository

    Fink, Martin

    2011-01-01

    In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  8. The Social Framework for Projects : a conceptual but practical model to assist in assessing, planning and managing the social impacts of projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smyth, Eddie; Vanclay, Frank

    2017-01-01

    The Social Framework for Projects assists in understanding, assessing, planning and managing the social issues associated with big projects, such as those leading to the resettlement or displacement of people. The Framework was iteratively developed by assessing existing models (e.g. Sustainable

  9. The impact of applying product-modelling techniques in configurator projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Kristjansdottir, Katrin; Shafiee, Sara

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to increase understanding of the impact of using product-modelling techniques to structure and formalise knowledge in configurator projects. Companies that provide customised products increasingly apply configurators in support of sales and design activities, reaping benefits...... though extant literature has shown the importance of formal modelling techniques, the impact of utilising these techniques remains relatively unknown. Therefore, this article studies three main areas: (1) the impact of using modelling techniques based on Unified Modelling Language (UML), in which...... ability to reduce the number of product variants. This paper contributes to an increased understanding of what companies can gain from using more formalised modelling techniques in configurator projects, and under what circumstances they should be used....

  10. A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

  11. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  12. The Navruz Project: Cooperative transboundary monitoring data sharing and modeling of water resources in Central Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passell, Howard David; Barber, David S.; Solodukhin, V.; Khazekhber, S.; Pozniak, V.; Vasiliev, I.; Alekhina, V.; Djuraev, Akram; Radyuk, R.; Suozzi, D.

    2006-01-01

    The Navruz Project engages scientists from nuclear physics research institutes and water science institutions in the Central Asia Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and Sandia National Laboratories. The project uses standardized methods to monitor basic water quality parameters, radionuclides, and metals in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers. Phase I of the project was initiated in 2000 with 15 sampling points in each of the four countries with sample analysis performed for over 100 parameters. Phase II of the project began in 2003 and expanded sampling to include at least 30 points in each country in an effort to characterize ''hot spots'' and to identify sources. Phase III of the project began in 2006 and will integrate decision support modeling with the existing monitoring. Overall, the project addresses four main goals: to create collaboration among Central Asian scientists and countries; to help increase capabilities in Central Asian nations for sustainable water resources management; to provide a scientific basis for supporting nuclear transparency and nonproliferation in the region; and to help reduce the threat of conflict in Central Asia over water resources. Contamination of these rivers is a result of growing population, urbanization, and agricultural activities, as well as radioactive contamination from a legacy of uranium mining and related activities of the former Soviet Union. The project focuses on waterborne radionuclides and metals because of the importance of these contaminants to public health and political stability in Central Asia.

  13. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

    2012-05-11

    Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

  14. Post-processing of multi-hydrologic model simulations for improved streamflow projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    khajehei, sepideh; Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-04-01

    Hydrologic model outputs are prone to bias and uncertainty due to knowledge deficiency in model and data. Uncertainty in hydroclimatic projections arises due to uncertainty in hydrologic model as well as the epistemic or aleatory uncertainties in GCM parameterization and development. This study is conducted to: 1) evaluate the recently developed multi-variate post-processing method for historical simulations and 2) assess the effect of post-processing on uncertainty and reliability of future streamflow projections in both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The first objective is performed for historical period of 1970-1999. Future streamflow projections are generated for 10 statistically downscaled GCMs from two widely used downscaling methods: Bias Corrected Statistically Downscaled (BCSD) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), over the period of 2010-2099 for two representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Three semi-distributed hydrologic models were employed and calibrated at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution for over 100 points across the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the pacific northwest USA. Streamflow outputs are post-processed through a Bayesian framework based on copula functions. The post-processing approach is relying on a transfer function developed based on bivariate joint distribution between the observation and simulation in historical period. Results show that application of post-processing technique leads to considerably higher accuracy in historical simulations and also reducing model uncertainty in future streamflow projections.

  15. Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

  16. A numerical study of different projection-based model reduction techniques applied to computational homogenisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soldner, Dominic; Brands, Benjamin; Zabihyan, Reza; Steinmann, Paul; Mergheim, Julia

    2017-10-01

    Computing the macroscopic material response of a continuum body commonly involves the formulation of a phenomenological constitutive model. However, the response is mainly influenced by the heterogeneous microstructure. Computational homogenisation can be used to determine the constitutive behaviour on the macro-scale by solving a boundary value problem at the micro-scale for every so-called macroscopic material point within a nested solution scheme. Hence, this procedure requires the repeated solution of similar microscopic boundary value problems. To reduce the computational cost, model order reduction techniques can be applied. An important aspect thereby is the robustness of the obtained reduced model. Within this study reduced-order modelling (ROM) for the geometrically nonlinear case using hyperelastic materials is applied for the boundary value problem on the micro-scale. This involves the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) for the primary unknown and hyper-reduction methods for the arising nonlinearity. Therein three methods for hyper-reduction, differing in how the nonlinearity is approximated and the subsequent projection, are compared in terms of accuracy and robustness. Introducing interpolation or Gappy-POD based approximations may not preserve the symmetry of the system tangent, rendering the widely used Galerkin projection sub-optimal. Hence, a different projection related to a Gauss-Newton scheme (Gauss-Newton with Approximated Tensors- GNAT) is favoured to obtain an optimal projection and a robust reduced model.

  17. A Conceptual Model and Database to Integrate Data and Project Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarinello, M. L.; Edsall, R.; Helbling, J.; Evaldt, E.; Glenn, N. F.; Delparte, D.; Sheneman, L.; Schumaker, R.

    2015-12-01

    Data management is critically foundational to doing effective science in our data-intensive research era and done well can enhance collaboration, increase the value of research data, and support requirements by funding agencies to make scientific data and other research products available through publically accessible online repositories. However, there are few examples (but see the Long-term Ecological Research Network Data Portal) of these data being provided in such a manner that allows exploration within the context of the research process - what specific research questions do these data seek to answer? what data were used to answer these questions? what data would have been helpful to answer these questions but were not available? We propose an agile conceptual model and database design, as well as example results, that integrate data management with project management not only to maximize the value of research data products but to enhance collaboration during the project and the process of project management itself. In our project, which we call 'Data Map,' we used agile principles by adopting a user-focused approach and by designing our database to be simple, responsive, and expandable. We initially designed Data Map for the Idaho EPSCoR project "Managing Idaho's Landscapes for Ecosystem Services (MILES)" (see https://www.idahoecosystems.org//) and will present example results for this work. We consulted with our primary users- project managers, data managers, and researchers to design the Data Map. Results will be useful to project managers and to funding agencies reviewing progress because they will readily provide answers to the questions "For which research projects/questions are data available and/or being generated by MILES researchers?" and "Which research projects/questions are associated with each of the 3 primary questions from the MILES proposal?" To be responsive to the needs of the project, we chose to streamline our design for the prototype

  18. MODEL AND METHOD FOR SYNTHESIS OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY WITH FUZZY INPUT DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. KONONENKO

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Literature analysis concerning the selection or creation a project management methodology is performed. Creating a "complete" methodology is proposed which can be applied to managing projects with any complexity, various degrees of responsibility for results and different predictability of the requirements. For the formation of a "complete" methodology, it is proposed to take the PMBOK standard as the basis, which would be supplemented by processes of the most demanding plan driven and flexible Agile Methodologies. For each knowledge area of the PMBOK standard, The following groups of processes should be provided: initiation, planning, execution, reporting, and forecasting, controlling, analysis, decision making and closing. The method for generating a methodology for the specific project is presented. The multiple criteria mathematical model and method aredeveloped for the synthesis of methodology when initial data about the project and its environment are fuzzy.

  19. Common ground: the HealthWeb project as a model for Internet collaboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redman, P M; Kelly, J A; Albright, E D; Anderson, P F; Mulder, C; Schnell, E H

    1997-10-01

    The establishment of the HealthWeb project by twelve health sciences libraries provides a collaborative means of organizing and enhancing access to Internet resources for the international health sciences community. The project is based on the idea that the Internet is common ground for all libraries and that through collaboration a more comprehensive, robust, and long-lasting information product can be maintained. The participants include more than seventy librarians from the health sciences libraries of the Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC), an academic consortium of twelve major research universities. The Greater Midwest Region of the National Network of Libraries of Medicine serves as a cosponsor. HealthWeb is an information resource that provides access to evaluated, annotated Internet resources via the World Wide Web. The project vision as well as the progress reported on its implementation may serve as a model for other collaborative Internet projects.

  20. The Hybrid Management Model: Influences of Organizational Structure and IT Project Management Practices on the Performance of Federal IT Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Celine A.

    2012-01-01

    The federal government spends much money on information technology (IT) projects each year, yet numerous IT projects continue to underperform. For instance, in Fiscal Year 2008, OMB and federal agencies identified approximately 413 IT projects ($25.2 billion) as being poorly planned, poorly performing, or both. Agencies struggle to implement sound…

  1. An Application of the PMI Model at the Project Level: Evaluation of the ESEA Title IV C Fresh Start Minischool Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Patricia C.

    The Planning, Monitoring, and Implementation Model (PMI) was developed to provide a model for systematic evaluation of educational programs to determine their effectiveness in achieving goals and objectives. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the PMI model at the project level. Fresh Start Minischool at Ballou High School (District of…

  2. Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peck, Myron A.; Arvanitidis, Christos; Butenschön, Momme; Canu, Donata Melaku; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Cucco, Andrea; Domenici, Paolo; Fernandes, Jose A.; Gasche, Loic; Huebert, Klaus B.; Hufnagl, Marc; Jones, Miranda C.; Kempf, Alexander; Keyl, Friedemann; Maar, Marie; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul; Nicolas, Delphine; Pinnegar, John K.; Rivot, Etienne; Rochette, Sébastien; Sell, Anne F.; Sinerchia, Matteo; Solidoro, Cosimo; Somerfield, Paul J.; Teal, Lorna R.; Travers-trolet, Morgan; De Wolfshaar, Van Karen E.

    2018-01-01

    We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of

  3. Respiratory compensation in projection imaging using a magnification and displacement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, C.R.; King, K.F.; Ritchie, C.J.; Godwin, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    Respiratory motion during the collection of computed tomography (CT) projections generates structured artifacts and a loss of resolution that can render the scans unusable. This motion is problematic in scans of those patients who cannot suspend respiration, such as the very young or incubated patients. In this paper, the authors present an algorithm that can be used to reduce motion artifacts in CT scans caused by respiration. An approximate model for the effect of respiration is that the object cross section under interrogation experiences time-varying magnification and displacement along two axes. Using this model an exact filtered backprojection algorithm is derived for the case of parallel projections. The result is extended to generate an approximate reconstruction formula for fan-beam projections. Computer simulations and scans of phantoms on a commercial CT scanner validate the new reconstruction algorithms for parallel and fan-beam projections. Significant reduction in respiratory artifacts is demonstrated clinically when the motion model is satisfied. The method can be applied to projection data used in CT single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

  4. Liquidus Projection and Thermodynamic Modeling of a Sn-Ag-Zn System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Sinn-wen; Chiu, Wan-ting; Gierlotka, Wojciech; Chang, Jui-shen; Wang, Chao-hong

    2017-12-01

    Sn-Ag-Zn alloys are promising Pb-free solders. In this study, the Sn-Ag-Zn liquidus projection was determined, and the Sn-Ag-Zn thermodynamic modeling was developed. Various Sn-Ag-Zn alloys were prepared. Their as-cast microstructures and primary solidification phases were examined. The invariant reaction temperatures of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system were determined. The liquidus projection of the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system was constructed. It was found that the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system has eight primary solidification phases: ɛ2-AgZn3, γ-Ag5Zn8, β-AgZn, ζ-Ag4Sn, (Ag), ɛ1-Ag3Sn, β-(Sn) and (Zn) phases. There are eight ternary invariant reactions, and the liquid + (Ag) = β-AgZn + ζ-Ag4Sn reaction is of the highest temperature at 935.5 K. Thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system was also carried out in this study based on the thermodynamic models of the three constituent binary systems and the experimentally determined liquidus projection. The liquidus projection and the isothermal sections are calculated. The calculated and experimentally determined liquidus projections are in good agreement.

  5. A maturation model for project-based organisations – with uncertainty management as an always remaining multi-project management focus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Jerbrant

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The classical view of multi-project management does not capture its dynamic nature. Present theory falls short in the expositive dimension of how management of project-based companies evolves because of their need to be agile and adaptable to a changing environment. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present a descriptive model that elucidates the maturation processes in a project-based organization as well as to give an enhanced understanding of multi-project management in practice. The maturation model displays how the management of project-based organizations evolves between structuring administration and managing any uncertainty, and emphasizes the importance of active individual actions and situated management actions that haveto be undertaken in order to coordinate, synchronize, and communicate the required knowledge and skills.The outcomes primarily reveal that, although standardized project models are used and considerable resources are spent on effective project portfolio management, how information and communication are executedis essential for the management of project-based organizations. This is particularly true for informal and non-codified communication.

  6. Good practice models for public workplace health promotion projects in Austria: promoting mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkert, Nathalie T; Muckenhuber, Johanna; Großschädl, Franziska; Sprenger, Martin; Rohrauer-Näf, Gerlinde; Ropin, Klaus; Martinel, Evelyn; Dorner, Thomas

    2014-04-01

    Promoting mental health is a central public health issue since the Jakarta statement in 1997. In Austria, the nationwide organisation for health promotion is the 'Fonds Gesundes Österreich' (FGÖ), which has been established in 1998. The FGÖ funds and supports workplace health promotion projects; therefore, it co-operates with the Austrian Network on Workplace Health Promotion. In 2011, among others, two Austrian companies were honoured as best practice models for promoting mental health in the project 'Work. In tune with life. Move Europe'. One of their central key success factors are the provision of equal opportunities, engagement, their focus on overall health as well as the implementation of behavioural and environmental preventive measures. Since mental health problems in the population are still rising, public health promotion projects which orientate on the best practice models have to be established in Austria.

  7. A sustainable biogas model in China: The case study of Beijing Deqingyuan biogas project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lihong, Chen; Cong, Ronggang; Shu, Bangrong

    2017-01-01

    an representative biogas project (the Deqingyuan project, DQY) in Beijing and conduct a cost-benefit analysis for the whole value chain. DQY is the first large-scale biogas project in China that utilizes 100% chicken manure as a feedstock and integrates biogas production with ecological agriculture using advanced...... technologies. DQY uses 80,000 t of chicken manure and 100,000 t of sewage each year to produce biogas, which generates 14 million KWh of power annually, and obtains an additional revenue of RMB 8 million yuan each year through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Operating as an example of a sustainable......, mitigating pollution, and increasing employment, among other benefits. This paper aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the typical demonstration model (DQY) in utilization of agricultural waste in China, and further proposes a general development model of Chinese biogas in the future....

  8. A model for scheduling projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Jolayemi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A zero-one mixed integer linear programming model is developed for the scheduling of projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements. The effects of inflation on time-cost trade-off curves are illustrated and a modified approach to time-cost trade-off analysis presented. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model and its properties. The examples show that misleading schedules and inaccurate project-cost estimates will be produced if the inflation factor is neglected in an environment of high inflation. They also show that award of penalty or bonus is a catalyst for early completion of a project, just as it can be expected.

  9. Challenges of the expansive use of Building Information Modeling (BIM in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannele Kerosuo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Building information modeling (BIM is an emerging modeling technology which challenges existing work procedures and practices in the construction industry. In this article we study the challenges, problems and potential expansions of BIM as a tool in the design, construction and operation of buildings. For this purpose the interfaces between different parties are examined in Finnish construction projects. The methodological approach of the study is cultural-historical activity theory, according to which a new artifact becomes a mediating instrument when the participatory subjects reconfigure the entire activity. The implementation of BIM is now spreading from the design activity to other phases of the construction projects, but its use is still limited in the projects' other three interfaces. BIM is an evolving set of software developed for various purposes which is locally 'combined' to fit the circumstances and capabilities of the stakeholders of the construction process.

  10. An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  11. An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Applegate

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities. Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice

  12. Canadian RCM projected climate-change signal and its sensitivity to model errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushama, L.; Laprise, R.; Caya, D.; Frigon, A.; Slivitzky, M.

    2006-12-01

    Climate change is commonly evaluated as the difference between simulated climates under future and current forcings, based on the assumption that systematic errors in the current-climate simulation do not affect the climate-change signal. In this paper, we investigate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) projected climate changes in the climatological means and extremes of selected basin-scale surface fields and its sensitivity to model errors for Fraser, Mackenzie, Yukon, Nelson, Churchill and Mississippi basins, covering the major climate regions in North America, using current (1961-1990) and future climate simulations (2041-2070; A2 and IS92a scenarios) performed with two versions of CRCM.Assessment of errors in both model versions suggests the presence of nonnegligible biases in the surface fields, due primarily to the internal dynamics and physics of the regional model and to the errors in the driving data at the boundaries. In general, results demonstrate that, in spite of the errors in the two model versions, the simulated climate-change signals associated with the long-term monthly climatology of various surface water balance components (such as precipitation, evaporation, snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff and soil moisture) are consistent in sign, but differ in magnitude. The same is found for projected changes to the low-flow characteristics (frequency, timing and return levels) studied here. High-flow characteristics, particularly the seasonal distribution and return levels, appear to be more sensitive to the model version.CRCM climate-change projections indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation for all basins except Mississippi, while annual runoff increases in Fraser, Mackenzie and Yukon basins. A decrease in runoff is projected for Mississippi. A significant decrease in snow cover is projected for all basins, with maximum decrease in Fraser. Significant changes are also noted in the frequency, timing and return levels for low

  13. Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

    2018-01-01

    The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

  14. Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

    2015-01-01

    The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

  15. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walters Bethany

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM, are increasingly common in the Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in the Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Methods Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project’s chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders’ action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. Results This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1 changing the health care system, (2 patient-centered care, (3 technological systems and barriers, and (4 integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and

  16. Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Campelo Spencer Netto

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the participants filled a feedback questionnaire about the proposed experimental model. This study presents the model and analyzes the questionnaire responses. Results: seventy-nine medical trainees used and evaluated the model. The anatomical correlation between the porcine model and human anatomy was considered high and averaged 8.1±1.0 among trainees. All study participants approved the low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion. Conclusion: the presented low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion training was feasible and had good acceptability among trainees. This model has potential use as a teaching tool in medical education.

  17. Mechanistic description of population dynamics using dynamic energy budget theory incorporated into integral projection models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Caswell, H.; Toorians, M.E.M.; de Roos, A.M.

    1. Integral projection models (IPMs) provide a powerful approach to investigate ecological and rapid evolutionary change in quantitative life-history characteristics and population dynamics. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe the demographic rates – survival, growth and reproduction –

  18. Validation of Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for low-volume forest roads

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; R. B. Foltz; Charlie Luce

    1995-01-01

    Erosion rates of recently graded nongravel forest roads were measured under rainfall simulation on five different soils. The erosion rates observed on 24 forest road erosion plots were compared with values predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, Version 93.1. Hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility values were predicted from methods...

  19. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

    2009-01-01

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

  20. Project Texas: A Nontraditional Teacher Professional Development Model for Science Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjean-Perrotta, Blanche; Buehler, Deborah

    2000-01-01

    Project Texas is a professional development program for K-8 teachers from districts serving underrepresented populations in order to develop teacher knowledge of Texas' eco-regions. The program provides a meaningful context modeling integration of field experiences, investigative activities, problem-solving strategies, and cooperative learning…

  1. Study of neutron-rich Mo isotopes by the projected shell model ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    also predicts a decrease in the quantum of triaxiality with increasing neutron number and angular momentum for odd mass neutron-rich Mo isotopes. Keywords. Neutron-rich nuclei; electromagnetic quantities; projected shell model. PACS Nos 21.60.Cs; 21.10.Ky; 21.10.Re; 27.60.+j. 1. Introduction. Neutron-rich nuclei in the ...

  2. Latest results from the EU project AVATAR : Aerodynamic modelling of 10 MW wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceyhan, J. G Schepers O; Ceyhan, O; Boorsma, K; Gonzalez, A; Munduate, X; Pires, O; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Simao Ferreira, C.; Sieros, G; Madsen, J.; Voutsinas, S.; Lutz, T.; Barakos, G.; Colonia, S.; Heißelmann, H.; Meng, F.; Croce, A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the most recent results from the EU project AVATAR in which aerodynamic models are improved and validated for wind turbines on a scale of 10 MW and more. Measurements on a DU 00-W-212 airfoil are presented which have been taken in the pressurized DNW-HDG wind tunnel up to a

  3. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same

  4. Measurement Rounding Errors in an Assessment Model of Project Led Engineering Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Moreira

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the rounding errors that occur in the assessment of an interdisciplinary Project-Led Education (PLE process implemented in the Integrated Master degree on Industrial Management and Engineering (IME at University of Minho. PLE is an innovative educational methodology which makes use of active learning, promoting higher levels of motivation and students’ autonomy. The assessment model is based on multiple evaluation components with different weights. Each component can be evaluated by several teachers involved in different Project Supporting Courses (PSC. This model can be affected by different types of errors, namely: (1 rounding errors, and (2 non-uniform criteria of rounding the grades. A rigorous analysis of the assessment model was made and the rounding errors involved on each project component were characterized and measured. This resulted in a global maximum error of 0.308 on the individual student project grade, in a 0 to 100 scale. This analysis intended to improve not only the reliability of the assessment results, but also teachers’ awareness of this problem. Recommendations are also made in order to improve the assessment model and reduce the rounding errors as much as possible.

  5. Rapid E-learning Development Strategies and a Multimedia Project Design Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sözcü, Ömer Faruk; Ipek, Ismail

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to discuss e-learning design strategies which can be used for multimedia projects as a design model. Recent advances in instructional technologies have been found to be very important in the design of training courses by using rapid instructional design (ID) approaches. The approaches were developed to use in training…

  6. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611; van de Wal, R.S.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  7. Socializing and Mentoring College Students of Color: The Puente Project as an Exemplary Celebratory Socialization Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laden, Berta Vigil

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature on mentoring and the role of organizational socialization, then presents highlights from the Puente Project, a California community college program, as an exemplary model that addresses the needs of first-generation Latino college students from a cultural context. The paper discusses program successes and notes implications…

  8. A UML Profile Oriented to the Requirements Modeling in Intelligent Tutoring Systems Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Guedes , Gilleanes Thorwald Araujo; Vicari , Rosa Maria

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper describes a proposal for the creation of a UML profile oriented to the intelligent tutoring systems project. In this paper we shall describe the proposed profile as well as its application into the modeling of the AMEA intelligent tutoring system.

  9. Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    An increase in abnormal climate change patterns and unsustainable irrigation in uplands cause drought and affect agricultural water security, crop productivity, and price fluctuations. In this study, we developed a soil moisture model to project irrigation requirements (IR) for upland crops under cl...

  10. Advancing projections of phytoplankton responses to climate change through ensemble modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trolle, D.; Elliott, J.A.; Mooij, W.M.

    2014-01-01

    A global trend of increasing health hazards associated with proliferation of toxin-producing cyanobacteria makes the ability to project phytoplankton dynamics of paramount importance. Whilst ensemble (multi-)modelling approaches have been used for a number of years to improve the robustness of

  11. The Python Project: A Unique Model for Extending Research Opportunities to Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Pamela A.; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W.; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A.

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced…

  12. 3d-modelling workflows for trans-nationally shared geological models - first approaches from the project GeoMol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupf, Isabel

    2013-04-01

    To meet the EU's ambitious targets for carbon emission reduction, renewable energy production has to be strongly upgraded and made more efficient for grid energy storage. Alpine Foreland Basins feature a unique geological inventory which can contribute substantially to tackle these challenges. They offer a geothermal potential and storage capacity for compressed air, as well as space for underground storage of CO2. Exploiting these natural subsurface resources will strongly compete with existing oil and gas claims and groundwater issues. The project GeoMol will provide consistent 3-dimensional subsurface information about the Alpine Foreland Basins based on a holistic and transnational approach. Core of the project GeoMol is a geological framework model for the entire Northern Molasse Basin, complemented by five detailed models in pilot areas, also in the Po Basin, which are dedicated to specific questions of subsurface use. The models will consist of up to 13 litho-stratigraphic horizons ranging from the Cenozoic basin fill down to Mesozoic and late Paleozoic sedimentary rocks and the crystalline basement. More than 5000 wells and 28 000 km seismic lines serve as input data sets for the geological subsurface model. The data have multiple sources and various acquisition dates, and their interpretations have gone through several paradigm changes. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the data with regards to technical parameters and content prior to further analysis (cf. Capar et al. 2013, EGU2013-5349). Each partner will build its own geological subsurface model with different software solutions for seismic interpretation and 3d-modelling. Therefore, 3d-modelling follows different software- and partner-specific workflows. One of the main challenges of the project is to ensure a seamlessly fitting framework model. It is necessary to define several milestones for cross border checks during the whole modelling process. Hence, the main input data set of the

  13. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  14. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF CLASSIFICATION OF INVESTMENT MODELS APPLICABLE TO CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Yaskova Natalya Yurevna; Moskvichev Danil Vasilevich

    2012-01-01

    The paper covers the identification of basic investment models applicable to construction projects. They are needed to substantiate the transformation of the investment system, to identify the numerical values of the investment process, and to solve the problems that prevent the efficiency improvement of the investment system. As a result of the analysis, the authors have identified sixteen models that differ in the mode of investment, investment targets, types of investees, in...

  15. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land–atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land–atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T and evapotranspiration (ET benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land–atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T–ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T–ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand

  16. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

  17. A Simplified Model of Human Alcohol Metabolism That Integrates Biotechnology and Human Health into a Mass Balance Team Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Allen H. J.; Dimiduk, Kathryn; Daniel, Susan

    2011-01-01

    We present a simplified human alcohol metabolism model for a mass balance team project. Students explore aspects of engineering in biotechnology: designing/modeling biological systems, testing the design/model, evaluating new conditions, and exploring cutting-edge "lab-on-a-chip" research. This project highlights chemical engineering's impact on…

  18. Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

  19. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  20. Evaluating the Hydrologic Sensitivities of Three Land Surface Models to Bound Uncertainties in Runoff Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao, T.; Nijssen, B.; Stickel, L.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrologic modeling is often used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability and quality. A common approach in these studies is to calibrate the selected model(s) to reproduce historic stream flows prior to the application of future climate projections. This approach relies on the implicit assumptions that the sensitivities of these models to meteorological fluctuations will remain relatively constant under climate change and that these sensitivities are similar among models if all models are calibrated to the same historic record. However, even if the models are able to capture the historic variability in hydrological variables, differences in model structure and parameter estimation contribute to the uncertainties in projected runoff, which confounds the incorporation of these results into water resource management decision-making. A better understanding of the variability in hydrologic sensitivities between different models can aid in bounding this uncertainty. In this research, we characterized the hydrologic sensitivities of three watershed-scale land surface models through a case study of the Bull Run watershed in Northern Oregon. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) were implemented and calibrated individually to historic streamflow using a common set of long-term, gridded forcings. In addition to analyzing model performances for a historic period, we quantified the temperature sensitivity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in temperature) and precipitation elasticity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in precipitation) of these three models via perturbation of the historic climate record using synthetic experiments. By comparing how these three models respond to changes in climate forcings, this research aims to test the assumption of constant and similar hydrologic sensitivities. Our

  1. How much does it cost? The LIFE Project - Costing Models for Digital Curation and Preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Davies

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Digital preservation is concerned with the long-term safekeeping of electronic resources. How can we be confident of their permanence, if we do not know the cost of preservation? The LIFE (Lifecycle Information for E-Literature Project has made a major step forward in understanding the long-term costs in this complex area. The LIFE Project has developed a methodology to model the digital lifecycle and to calculate the costs of preserving digital information for the next 5, 10 or 100 years. National and higher education (HE libraries can now apply this process and plan effectively for the preservation of their digital collections. Based on previous work undertaken on the lifecycles of paper-based materials, the LIFE Project created a lifecycle model and applied it to real-life digital collections across a diverse subject range. Three case studies examined the everyday operations, processes and costs involved in their respective activities. The results were then used to calculate the direct costs for each element of the digital lifecycle. The Project has made major advances in costing preservation activities, as well as making detailed costs of real digital preservation activities available. The second phase of LIFE (LIFE2, which recently started, aims to refine the lifecycle methodology and to add a greater range and breadth to the project with additional exemplar case studies.

  2. Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao-Hong Sun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios using multiple global climate model projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The results projected more summer days and fewer frost days in 2006–2099. The ensemble prediction shows the Pearl River Basin is projected to experience more summer days than other basins with the increasing trend of 16.3, 38.0, and 73.0 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin are forecasted to become wetter and warmer with the co-occurrence of increases in summer days and wet days. Very heavy precipitation days (R20, daily precipitation ≥20 mm are projected to increase in all basins. The R20 in the Yangtze River Basin are projected to have the highest change rate in 2006–2099 of 1.8, 2.5, and 3.8 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

  3. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  4. Perbandingan antara Keefektifan Model Guided Discovery Learning dan Project-Based Learning pada Matakuliah Geometri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okky Riswandha Imawan

    2015-12-01

    Abstract This research aims to describe the effectiveness and effectiveness differences of the Guided Discovery Learning (GDL Model and the Project Based Learning (PjBL Model in terms of achievement, self-confidence, and critical thinking skills of students on the Solid Geometry subjects. This research was quasi experimental. The research subjects were two undergraduate classes of Mathematics Education Program, Ahmad Dahlan University, in their second semester, established at random. The data analysis to test the effectiveness of the GDL and PjBL Models in terms of each of the dependent variables used the t-test. The data analysis to test differences between effectiveness of the GDL and that of the PjBL Model used the MANOVA test. The results of this research show that viewed from achievement, self confidence, and critical thinking skills of the students are the application of the GDL Model on Solid Geometry subject is effective, the application of the PjBL Model on Solid Geometry subject is effective, and there is no difference in the effectiveness of GDL and PjBL Models on Solid Geometry subject in terms of achievement, self confidence, and critical thinking skills of the students. Keywords: guided discovery learning model, project-based learning model, achievement, self-confidence, critical thinking skills

  5. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  6. Characterizing 3D City Modeling Projects: Towards a Harmonized Interoperable System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arttu Julin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available 3D city models have become common geospatial data assets for cities that can be utilized in numerous fields, in tasks related to planning, visualization, and decision-making among others. We present a study of 3D city modeling focusing on the six largest cities in Finland. The study portrays a contradiction between the realized 3D city modeling projects and the expectations towards them: models do not appear to reach the broad applicability envisioned. In order to deal with contradiction and to support the development of future 3D city models, characteristics of different operational cultures in 3D city modeling are presented, and a concept for harmonizing the 3D city modeling is suggested.

  7. Model driven Soil Probing, Site Assessment and Evaluation- Final results of the EU Project ModelPROBE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaestner, M.; Cassiani, G.; Doeberl, G.; Braeckevelt, M.

    2012-04-01

    Conventional techniques for site characterization are time consuming, cost intensive, and do often not support decision making. Therefore, new techniques for a step by step site characterization strategy with smart feedback loops were developed in the framework of the ModelPROBE project: advanced geophysical site characterization techniques combined with new types of vegetation analysis (tree core monitoring), including integrated statistical analysis and modelling. Based on these non- to low invasive surveys, the extension of sources, contamination levels and soil heterogeneities can be localized. Hot spots can then be investigated by new direct push probing systems integrated with geophysical & hydrogeological methods, and combined with chemical & isotopic contaminant analysis for source localization and identification. The actually occurring bioprocesses, such as contaminant degradation or precipitation/mobilization processes, can be assessed using biosensors, in situ microcosms, and stable isotope and biomarker analysis. Some of these new techniques and tools were successfully evaluated against best practice of conventional methods at the fully equipped and characterized European reference sites available in the project. Beside scientific publications, the methods and techniques developed in the project will be provided in the form of an operation guideline handbook that will be published in September 2012. ModelPROBE (Grant No. 213161) is an EU project under the theme 6.3 Environmental Technologies 2007, 3.1.2.2.

  8. Multi-stage IT project evaluation: The flexibility value obtained by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik (2004) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Fathi; Guermazi, Dorra

    2009-11-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a multi-stage information technology investment project, by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik's (2004) model, which takes into account specific features of IT projects and considers the real option to suspend investment at each stage. We present a particular case of the model where the project value is the solution of an optimal control problem with a single state variable. In this case, the model is more intuitive and tractable. The case study confirms the practical potential of the model and highlights the importance of the real-option approach compared to classical discounted cash flow techniques in the valuation of IT projects.

  9. Statistical multi-model climate projections of surface ocean waves in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Jorge; Menendez, Melisa; Camus, Paula; Mendez, Fernando J.; Losada, Inigo J.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the impact of climate change on sea surface waves has received increasingly more attention by the climate community. Indeed, ocean waves reaching the coast play an important role in several processes concerning coastal communities, such as inundation and erosion. However, regional downscaling at the high spatial resolution necessary for coastal studies has received less attention. Here, we present a novel framework for regional wave climate projections and its application in the European region. Changes in the wave dynamics under different scenarios in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean are analyzed. The multi-model projection methodology is based on a statistical downscaling approach. The statistical relation between the predictor (atmospheric conditions) and the predictand (multivariate wave climate) is based on a weather type (WT) classification. This atmospheric classification is developed by applying the k-means clustering technique over historical offshore sea level pressure (SLP) fields. Each WT is linked to sea wave conditions from a wave hindcast. This link is developed by associating atmospheric conditions from reanalysis with multivariate local waves. This predictor-predictand relationship is applied to the daily SLP fields from global climate models (GCMs) in order to project future changes in regional wave conditions. The GCMs used in the multi-model projection are selected according to skill criteria. The application of this framework uses CMIP5-based wave climate projections in Europe. The low computational requirements of the statistical approach allow a large number of GCMs and climate change scenarios to be studied. Consistent with previous works on global wave climate projections, the estimated changes from the regional wave climate projections show a general decrease in wave heights and periods in the Atlantic Europe for the late twenty-first century. The regional projections, however, allow a more detailed

  10. Recent developments of the projected shell model based on many-body techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments of the projected shell model (PSM are summarized. Firstly, by using the Pfaffian algorithm, the multi-quasiparticle configuration space is expanded to include 6-quasiparticle states. The yrast band of 166Hf at very high spins is studied as an example, where the observed third back-bending in the moment of inertia is well reproduced and explained. Secondly, an angular-momentum projected generate coordinate method is developed based on PSM. The evolution of the low-lying states, including the second 0+ state, of the soft Gd, Dy, and Er isotopes to the well-deformed ones is calculated, and compared with experimental data.

  11. MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PRODUCED BY A BUILDING PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lapidus Azariy Abramovich

    2012-10-01

    The theoretical background of the proposed approach consists in an integrated methodology implemented in the system engineering of construction projects. A building system may be represented as the aggregate of all stages of construction works and participants involved in them. The building system is object-oriented, and it is implemented under the impact of pre-determined environmental factors. The core constituent of the building system represents a Production Technology Module (PTM, or summarized groups of processes. The model formula designated for the assessment of the intensity of the ecological load produced by the construction project onto the environment may be represented as follows:

  12. A MASTER THESIS ON PORTING THE ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE ANALYSIS TOOL TO ECLIPSE MODELING PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanov, Stanislav

    2011-01-01

    This master thesis is a part of the ongoing research on EAT development project. Its main goal is to research whether Eclipse Modeling Project can be used as an alternative platform to using NetBeans in implementing EAT tool. In order to fulfill this goal, it contains analysis of the current EAT tool version and design research of a new version using EMP. The design addresses most of the issues related to building a new version and eventually recommends porting EAT to EMP.

  13. EERE-VTO T2M Project Final Report - Ideation of a Novel Commercialization Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chamberlain, Jeffrey P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-05-03

    The Department of Energy Technology Transfer mission is to expand the commercial impact of DOE's portfolio of R&D activities, providing ongoing economic, security, and environmental benefits for all Americans. To advance this mission, Argonne National Laboratory has executed this Technology-to-Market (T2M) project funded by EERE-VTO. The objective of the project was to ideate an overall business model for a private entity with a mission to develop and deploy technology by identifying, de-risking, and moving scientific advances into commercial use.

  14. Mixtures of beta distributions in models of the duration of a project affected by risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gładysz, Barbara; Kuchta, Dorota

    2017-07-01

    This article presents a method for timetabling a project affected by risk. The times required to carry out tasks are modelled using mixtures of beta distributions. The parameters of these beta distributions are given by experts: one corresponding to the duration of a task in stable conditions, with no risks materializing, and the other corresponding to the duration of a task in the case when risks do occur. Finally, a case study will be presented and analysed: the project of constructing a shopping mall in Poland.

  15. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, K L; Caldeira, K; Orr, J C; Schneider, K

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. (letter)

  16. Projecting cancer incidence using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Mark J; Thompson, John R; Lambert, Paul C

    2012-11-05

    Age-period-cohort models provide a useful method for modeling incidence and mortality rates. There is great interest in estimating the rates of disease at given future time-points in order that plans can be made for the provision of the required future services. In the setting of using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines, a new technique for projecting incidence is proposed. The new technique projects the period and cohort terms linearly from 10 years within the range of the available data in order to give projections that are based on recent trends. The method is validated via a comparison with existing methods in the setting of Finnish cancer registry data. The reasons for the improvements seen for the newly proposed method are twofold. Firstly, improvements are seen due to the finer splitting of the timescale to give a more continuous estimate of the incidence rate. Secondly, the new method uses more recent trends to dictate the future projections than previously proposed methods.

  17. Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: an overview of the ESQUIF project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menut, L.; Vautard, R.; Flamant, P.H. [Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique; Flamant, C.; Beekmann, M.; Megie, G.; Sicard, M. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 91 - Verrieres-le-Buisson (France). Service d' Aeronomie; Abonnel, C.; Lefebvre, M.P.; Lossec, B. [Meteo-France, 75 - Paris (France); Chazette, P.; Martin, D. [CNRS (France). Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement; Gombert, D. [AIRPARIF, Paris (France); Guedalia, D. [CNRS-Universite Paul Sabatier (France). Lab. d' Aerologie; Kley, D. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Perros, P.; Toupance, G. [CNRS (France). Lab. Interuniversitaire des Systemes Atmospheriques

    2000-11-01

    The ''etude et simulation de la qualite de l'air en ile de France'' (ESQUIF) project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000) to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1) to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2) to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements. (orig.)

  18. Models for assessment of public-private partnership projects in subsurface management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    И. С. Калгина

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aims and goals of this paper. The article is devoted to analysis of issues related to development of public-private partnership (PPP projects in mineral resources sector of Russia. The special emphasis is given to the most common PPP model in the field of industrial infrastructure construction using the Investment Fund of RF. We offer specific tools to be used with Russian models for assessment of PPP projects and forecasting of its efficiency for its participants. This model allows evaluating the results of the whole deposit development process, constructing graphs of all types of expenditures and revenues (by years, and having rent assessment of deposit NPV (net present value and internal rent rate (IRR.Methods and results. The iteration process at each step enables assessment of budget revenue forecast, living standards indexes, ecological parameters and performance indicators, as well as a certain variant of PPP project implementation for investors (direct government expenses on implementation of infrastructure objects and environmental activities, tax benefits. We have a set of tools for supporting the management decision making process in developing efficient PPP mechanism, balancing long-term government interests, private sector and local people interests arising during socio-economic development of mineral resources area. This method using the suggested tools for analyzing efficiency of a specific partnership mechanism is shown on the examples of projects of developing different deposits in Transbaikal region.

  19. Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: an overview of the ESQUIF Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available The "Étude et Simulation de la QUalité de l'air en Ile de France" (ESQUIF project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000 to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1 to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2 to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements.Key words: Atmospheric composition and structure (pollution – urban and regional; troposphere – composition and chemistry – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology

  20. Intercultural team maturity model: Unity, diversity, capability. Achieving optimal performance when leading \\ud a multicultural project team

    OpenAIRE

    Prabhakar, G. P.; Walker, S.

    2005-01-01

    Our research helps to judge ‘maturity’ as an asset to projects and heightens awareness of situational leadership, using intercultural team maturity levels as a tool for optimal project leadership success.\\ud \\ud This study focuses on exactly how to analyse the team members’ ability to adapt to complex intercultural project environments, using an intercultural team maturity model.

  1. Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoming; Taylor, Patrick C; Cai, Ming; Yang, Song; Deng, Yi; Sejas, Sergio

    2017-06-27

    Since Chaney's report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO 2 -from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater -remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models' intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.

  2. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

  3. The Durham elementary particle data bank, data analysis and model comparison project

    CERN Document Server

    Gault, F D; Chadwick, B; Cooper, C S

    1973-01-01

    In comparing theoretical models with data the first problem encountered is the retrieval of data from published sources and its storage in such a way as to make it readily accessible. The second is to implement programs which check the data for consistency and any recurring characteristics. The third is to produce an efficiently written program to compare the theoretical model with the data, the program being written as a function of N parameters so that it can be coupled to a minimizing program such as CERN MINUIT. Between each step, interface, retrieval and storage problems arise. The authors discuss the organization of the Durham project, the Data Bank software and retrieval techniques and the integration of model independent software with the Data Bank. This project is being carried out on the Northumbrian Universities Multiple Access Computer (NUMAC) an IBM 360 /67 operating under the Michigan Terminal System (MTS). (10 refs).

  4. Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Cabeza, Mar; Altwegg, Res

    2016-01-01

    in the position of climatically suitable areas (models) greater for species in grid cells with climates projected to move farther in space (metrics)? Results: The changes in climatic suitability projected by the bioclimatic envelope models covaried with the climatic changes measured with the metrics. Agreement......Aim: Bioclimatic envelope models are widely used to describe changes in climatically suitable areas for species under future climate scenarios. Climate change metrics are applied independently of species data to characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of climate, and have also been used...... as indicators of the exposure of species to climate change. Here, we investigate whether these two approaches provide qualitatively similar indications about where biodiversity is potentially most exposed to climate change. Location: Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We compared a range of climate change metrics...

  5. Towards an Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI the HarmonIT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Blind

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Water Framework Directive (WFD poses an immense challenge to water management in Europe. Aiming at a "good ecological status" of surface waters in 2015, integrated river basin management plans need to be in place by 2009, and broadly supported by stakeholders. Information & Communication Technology (ICT tools, such as computational models, are very helpful in designing river basin management plans (rbmp-s. However, many scientists believe that a single integrated modelling system to support the WFD cannot be developed, and integrated systems need to be quite tailored to the local situation and evolve during a collaborative planning process. As a consequence there is an urgent need to increase the flexibility of modelling systems, such that dedicated model systems can be developed from available building blocks. In the recent past a number of initiatives have been started to develop an IT framework for modelling to meet the required flexibility. In Europe the international project HarmonIT, which is sponsored by the European Commission, is developing and implementing a standard interface for modelling components and other relevant tools: The Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI. This paper describes the HarmonIT project and objectives in general. The current progress is described. It describes the roles for different types of stakeholders in modelling, varying from software coders to non-specialized users of decision support systems. It will provide insight in the requirements imposed when using the OpenMI.

  6. Towards an Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) the HarmonIT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blind, M.; Gregersen, J. B.

    2005-08-01

    The Water Framework Directive (WFD) poses an immense challenge to water management in Europe. Aiming at a "good ecological status" of surface waters in 2015, integrated river basin management plans need to be in place by 2009, and broadly supported by stakeholders. Information & Communication Technology (ICT) tools, such as computational models, are very helpful in designing river basin management plans (rbmp-s). However, many scientists believe that a single integrated modelling system to support the WFD cannot be developed, and integrated systems need to be quite tailored to the local situation and evolve during a collaborative planning process. As a consequence there is an urgent need to increase the flexibility of modelling systems, such that dedicated model systems can be developed from available building blocks. In the recent past a number of initiatives have been started to develop an IT framework for modelling to meet the required flexibility. In Europe the international project HarmonIT, which is sponsored by the European Commission, is developing and implementing a standard interface for modelling components and other relevant tools: The Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). This paper describes the HarmonIT project and objectives in general. The current progress is described. It describes the roles for different types of stakeholders in modelling, varying from software coders to non-specialized users of decision support systems. It will provide insight in the requirements imposed when using the OpenMI.

  7. The EGS Collab Project: Stimulation Investigations for Geothermal Modeling Analysis and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D.; Kneafsey, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    The US DOE's EGS Collab project team is establishing a suite of intermediate-scale ( 10-20 m) field test beds for coupled stimulation and interwell flow tests. The multiple national laboratory and university team is designing the tests to compare measured data to models to improve measurement and modeling toolsets available for use in field sites and investigations such as DOE's Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) Project. Our tests will be well-controlled, in situexperiments focused on rock fracture behavior, seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Pre- and post-test modeling will allow for model prediction and validation. High-quality, high-resolution geophysical and other fracture characterization data will be collected, analyzed, and compared with models and field observations to further elucidate the basic relationships between stress, induced seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Coring through the stimulated zone after tests will provide fracture characteristics that can be compared to monitoring data and model predictions. We will also observe and quantify other key governing parameters that impact permeability, and attempt to understand how these parameters might change throughout the development and operation of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project with the goal of enabling commercial viability of EGS. The Collab team will perform three major experiments over the three-year project duration. Experiment 1, intended to investigate hydraulic fracturing, will be performed in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) at 4,850 feet depth and will build on kISMET Project findings. Experiment 2 will be designed to investigate hydroshearing. Experiment 3 will investigate changes in fracturing strategies and will be further specified as the project proceeds. The tests will provide quantitative insights into the nature of stimulation (e.g., hydraulic fracturing, hydroshearing, mixed-mode fracturing, thermal fracturing

  8. Robust intensification of hydroclimatic intensity over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Choi, Yeon-Woo; Ahn, Joong-Bae

    2017-08-01

    This study assesses the hydroclimatic response to global warming over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections. Four different regional climate models (RCMs), namely, WRF, HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, and GRIMs, are used for dynamical downscaling of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual mean precipitation, hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT), and wet and dry extreme indices are analyzed to identify the robust behavior of hydroclimatic change in response to enhanced emission scenarios using high-resolution (12.5 km) and long-term (1981-2100) daily precipitation. Ensemble projections exhibit increased hydroclimatic intensity across the entire domain and under both the RCP scenarios. However, a geographical pattern with predominantly intensified HY-INT does not fully emerge in the mean precipitation change because HY-INT is tied to the changes in the precipitation characteristics rather than to those in the precipitation amount. All projections show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation, which lead to a possible shift in hydroclimatic regime prone to an increase of both wet and dry extremes. In general, projections forced by the RCP8.5 scenario tend to produce a much stronger response than do those by the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the temperature increase under the RCP4.5 scenario is sufficiently large to induce significant changes in hydroclimatic intensity, despite the relatively uncertain change in mean precipitation. Likewise, the forced responses of HY-INT and the two extreme indices are more robust than that of mean precipitation, in terms of the statistical significance and model agreement.

  9. Pengembangan Model Pembelajaran Project Based Learning pada Mata Kuliah Computer Aided Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoto Endar Nayono

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the key competencies of graduates majoring in Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, Yogyakarta State University (YSU is able to plan buildings. CAD courses aim to train students to be able to pour the planning concepts into the picture. One of the obstacles faced in the course are concepts and pictures that created by the students often do not correspond to the standards used in the field. This study aims to develop a model of project-based learning so that the students’ pictures are more in line with the actual conditions in the field. This study was carried out through the stages as follows: (1 Pre test, (2 Planning of learning, (3 Implementation of the learning model of project-based learning, (4 monitoring and evaluation (5 Reflection and revision, (6 Implementation of learning in the next cycle, and (7 Evaluation of the learning outcomes. This study was conducted for four months in 2012 in the Department of Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, YSU. The subjects of this study are the students who took the course of Computer Aided Design. The analysis of the data used descriptive qualitative and descriptive statistics. The results of this study were: (1 The implementation of project based learning model was proven to increase the learning process and the learning outcomes of students in the subject of CAD through the provision of buildings planning pictures tasks of school buildings based on the real conditions in the field. The task was delivered in every meeting and improved based on the feedback from their lecturers, (2 the learning model of project based learning will be easier to be implemented if it is accompanied by the model of peer tutoring and the learning model of PAIKEM.

  10. Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

    2015-08-28

    There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of

  11. Computerized transportation model for the NRC Physical Protection Project. Versions I and II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, G.M.

    1978-01-01

    Details on two versions of a computerized model for the transportation system of the NRC Physical Protection Project are presented. The Version I model permits scheduling of all types of transport units associated with a truck fleet, including truck trailers, truck tractors, escort vehicles and crews. A fixed-fleet itinerary construction process is used in which iterations on fleet size are required until the service requirements are satisfied. The Version II model adds an aircraft mode capability and provides for a more efficient non-fixed-fleet itinerary generation process. Test results using both versions are included

  12. Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

    2017-04-01

    Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V

  13. Methane for Power Generation in Muaro Jambi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-07-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates electricity generation from the organic content of wastewater at a palm oil mill in Muaro Jambi, Sumatra. Palm mills use vast amounts of water in the production process resulting in problematic waste water called palm oil mill effluent (POME). The POME releases methane to the atmosphere in open ponds which could be covered to capture the methane to produce renewable electricity for rural villages. The study uses average Indonesia data to determine the economic viability of methane capture at a palm oil mill and also evaluates technology as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  14. Development of a wind farm noise propagation prediction model - project progress to date

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.; Bullmore, A.; Bass, J.; Sloth, E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes a twelve month measurement campaign which is part of a European project (CEC Project JOR3-CT95-0051) with the aim to substantially reduce the uncertainties involved in predicting environmentally radiated noise levels from wind farms (1). This will be achieved by comparing noise levels measure at varying distances from single and multiple sources over differing complexities of terrain with those predicted using a number of currently adopted sound propagation models. Specific objectives within the project are to: establish the important parameters controlling the propagation of wind farm noise to the far field; develop a planning tool for predicting wind farm noise emission levels under practically encountered conditions; place confidence limits on the upper and lower bounds of the noise levels predicted, thus enabling developers to quantify the risk whether noise emission from wind farms will cause nuisance to nearby residents. (Author)

  15. In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

    2018-02-01

    In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP: evaluation of historical and projected future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Lamarque

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP. The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice, the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~ 30–50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000. However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in

  17. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Shindell, D. T.; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr-1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr-1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr-1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N) m-2 yr-1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~ 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new

  18. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, we first projected and attributed future changes of pan evaporation (E_pan), a measurable indictor for atmospheric evaporative demand, over China through a physical- based approach, namely PenPan model, forced with outputs form twelve state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in〖 E〗_pan projection. The results indicated that the E_panwould increase during the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapour pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E_pan is relatively larger in eastern China than that in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox" was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, we found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117 167 mm/yr per K (72 80 mm/yr per K) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

  19. Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of

  20. The global sustainability project and the LLNL China energy systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, N; Lamont, A; Stewart, J; Woodrow, C.

    1999-01-01

    The sustainability of our modern way of life is becoming a major concern of both our domestic and international policy. The Rio conference on the environment and the recent Kyoto conference on global climate change are two indications of the importance of solving global environmental problem. Energy is a key component in global sustainability since obtaining and using it has major environmental effects. If our energy systems are to be sustainable in the long run, they must be structured using technologies that have a minimal impact on our environment and resources. At the same time, they must meet practical economic requirements: they must be reasonably economical, they must meet the needs of society and they must be tailored to the resources that are available in a particular region or country. Because economic considerations and government policies both determine the development of the energy system, economic and systems modeling can help us better understand ways that new technologies and policies can be used to obtain a more sustainable system. The Global Sustainability Project has developed both economic modeling software and models to help us better understand these issues and has applied them to the analysis of energy and environmental problems in China. In the past year, the models and data developed by the project have been used to support other projects investigating the interaction of technologies and the environment. The project this year has focused on software development to improve our modeling tools and on the refinement and application of the China Energy System model. The major thrust of the software development has been improvements in the METANet economic software system. We have modified its solution algorithm to improve speed and accuracy of the solutions and to make it compatible with the SuperCode modeling system. It is planned to eventually merge the two systems to take advantage of the faster, more flexible solution algorithms of Super

  1. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

  2. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bopp

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72 °C, −0.33 (±0.003 pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44% and −8.6 (±7.9%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45 °C, −0.07 (±0.001 pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31% and −2.0 (±4.1%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface

  3. Frequent Change Request From User to Handle Cost on Project in Agile Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shariq Aziz Butt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Agile has invented to improve and overcome Draw backs of software development. Now agile model is using in software development very vastly. It is facilitating the developer and client both very resourcefully. It is getting popularity than the other Software Development Life Cycle models because of its characteristics and most owing to allow change request at any level of the project. The client in the software development is the main part and asset of the company. The software house always focuses on its client because client is an asset. Thus developer has major concern with the client’s requirement and change request. Agile is getting popularity because of allow change request at any stage of project, on the other hand it is also a drawback in agile model because when project starts the project’s completion time and cost is decided. But due to frequent change of requests come from client the cost and completion time both increase eventually which is not good for software house’s business and reputation. So there is need a cost and time estimation technique to solve change request issue in agile model.

  4. Verification of Electromagnetic Physics Models for Parallel Computing Architectures in the GeantV Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amadio, G.; et al.

    2017-11-22

    An intensive R&D and programming effort is required to accomplish new challenges posed by future experimental high-energy particle physics (HEP) programs. The GeantV project aims to narrow the gap between the performance of the existing HEP detector simulation software and the ideal performance achievable, exploiting latest advances in computing technology. The project has developed a particle detector simulation prototype capable of transporting in parallel particles in complex geometries exploiting instruction level microparallelism (SIMD and SIMT), task-level parallelism (multithreading) and high-level parallelism (MPI), leveraging both the multi-core and the many-core opportunities. We present preliminary verification results concerning the electromagnetic (EM) physics models developed for parallel computing architectures within the GeantV project. In order to exploit the potential of vectorization and accelerators and to make the physics model effectively parallelizable, advanced sampling techniques have been implemented and tested. In this paper we introduce a set of automated statistical tests in order to verify the vectorized models by checking their consistency with the corresponding Geant4 models and to validate them against experimental data.

  5. Verification of Electromagnetic Physics Models for Parallel Computing Architectures in the GeantV Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, G.; Apostolakis, J.; Bandieramonte, M.; Behera, S. P.; Brun, R.; Canal, P.; Carminati, F.; Cosmo, G.; Duhem, L.; Elvira, D.; Folger, G.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Goulas, I.; Hariri, F.; Jun, S. Y.; Konstantinov, D.; Kumawat, H.; Ivantchenko, V.; Lima, G.; Nikitina, T.; Novak, M.; Pokorski, W.; Ribon, A.; Seghal, R.; Shadura, O.; Vallecorsa, S.; Wenzel, S.

    2017-10-01

    An intensive R&D and programming effort is required to accomplish new challenges posed by future experimental high-energy particle physics (HEP) programs. The GeantV project aims to narrow the gap between the performance of the existing HEP detector simulation software and the ideal performance achievable, exploiting latest advances in computing technology. The project has developed a particle detector simulation prototype capable of transporting in parallel particles in complex geometries exploiting instruction level microparallelism (SIMD and SIMT), task-level parallelism (multithreading) and high-level parallelism (MPI), leveraging both the multi-core and the many-core opportunities. We present preliminary verification results concerning the electromagnetic (EM) physics models developed for parallel computing architectures within the GeantV project. In order to exploit the potential of vectorization and accelerators and to make the physics model effectively parallelizable, advanced sampling techniques have been implemented and tested. In this paper we introduce a set of automated statistical tests in order to verify the vectorized models by checking their consistency with the corresponding Geant4 models and to validate them against experimental data.

  6. Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

  7. Modeling water flow and solute transport in unsaturated zone inside NSRAWD project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantin, A.; Diaconu, D.; Bucur, C.; Genty, A.

    2015-01-01

    The NSRAWD project (2010-2013) - Numerical Simulations for Radioactive Waste Disposal was initiated under a collaboration agreement between the Institute for Nuclear Research and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). The context of the project was favorable to combine the modeling activities with an experimental part in order to improve and validate the numerical models used so far to simulate water flow and solute transport at Saligny site, Romania. The numerical models developed in the project were refined and validated on new hydrological data gathered between 2010-2012 by a monitoring station existent on site which performs automatic determination of soil water content and matrix potential, as well as several climate parameters (wind, temperature and precipitations). Water flow and solute transport was modeled in transient conditions, by taking into consideration, as well as neglecting the evapotranspiration phenomenon, on the basis of a tracer test launched on site. The determination of dispersivities for solute transport was targeted from the solute plume. The paper presents the main results achieved in the NSRAWD project related to water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated area of the Saligny site. The results indicated satisfactory predictions for the simulation of water flow in the unsaturated area, in steady state and transient conditions. In the case of tracer transport modeling, dispersivity coefficients could not be finally well fitted for the data measured on site and in order to obtain a realistic preview over the values of these parameters, further investigations are recommended. The article is followed by the slides of the presentation

  8. Allocation of control rights in the PPP Project: a cooperative game model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunhua; Feng, Jingchun; Yang, Shengtao

    2017-06-01

    Reasonable allocation of control rights is the key to the success of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. PPP are services or ventures which are financed and operated through cooperation between governmental and private sector actors and which involve reasonable control rights sharing between these two partners. After professional firm with capital and technology as a shareholder participating in PPP project firms, the PPP project is diversified in participants and input resources. Meanwhile the allocation of control rights of PPP project tends to be complicated. According to the diversification of participants and input resources of PPP projects, the key participants are divided into professional firms and pure investors. Based on the cost of repurchase of different input resources in markets, the cooperative game relationship between these two parties is analyzed, on the basis of which the allocation model of the cooperative game for control rights is constructed to ensure optimum allocation ration of control rights and verify the share of control rights in proportion to the cost of repurchase.

  9. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2017-11-01

    Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971-2000) and for the future (2071-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

  10. Merging symmetry projection methods with coupled cluster theory: Lessons from the Lipkin model Hamiltonian

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlen-Strothman, J. M. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Henderson, T. H. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Hermes, M. R. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Degroote, M. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Qiu, Y. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Zhao, J. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Dukelsky, J. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Estructura de la Materia; Scuseria, G. E. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States)

    2018-01-03

    Coupled cluster and symmetry projected Hartree-Fock are two central paradigms in electronic structure theory. However, they are very different. Single reference coupled cluster is highly successful for treating weakly correlated systems, but fails under strong correlation unless one sacrifices good quantum numbers and works with broken-symmetry wave functions, which is unphysical for finite systems. Symmetry projection is effective for the treatment of strong correlation at the mean-field level through multireference non-orthogonal configuration interaction wavefunctions, but unlike coupled cluster, it is neither size extensive nor ideal for treating dynamic correlation. We here examine different scenarios for merging these two dissimilar theories. We carry out this exercise over the integrable Lipkin model Hamiltonian, which despite its simplicity, encompasses non-trivial physics for degenerate systems and can be solved via diagonalization for a very large number of particles. We show how symmetry projection and coupled cluster doubles individually fail in different correlation limits, whereas models that merge these two theories are highly successful over the entire phase diagram. Despite the simplicity of the Lipkin Hamiltonian, the lessons learned in this work will be useful for building an ab initio symmetry projected coupled cluster theory that we expect to be accurate in the weakly and strongly correlated limits, as well as the recoupling regime.

  11. Applying Interpretive Structural Modeling to Cost Overruns in Construction Projects in the Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Alzebdeh

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cost overruns in construction projects are a problem faced by project managers, engineers, and clients throughout the Middle East.  Globally, several studies in the literature have focused on identifying the causes of these overruns and used statistical methods to rank them according to their impacts. None of these studies have considered the interactions among these factors. This paper examines interpretive structural modelling (ISM as a viable technique for modelling complex interactions among factors responsible for cost overruns in construction projects in the Sultanate of Oman. In particular, thirteen interrelated factors associated with cost overruns were identified, along with their contextual interrelationships. Application of ISM leads to organizing these factors in a hierarchical structure which effectively demonstrates their interactions in a simple way. Four factors were found to be at the root of cost overruns: instability of the US dollar, changes in governmental regulations, faulty cost estimation, and poor coordination among projects’ parties. Taking appropriate actions to minimize the influence of these factors can ultimately lead to better control of future project costs. Thisstudy is of value to managers and decision makers because it provides a powerful yet very easy to apply approach for investigating the problem of cost overruns and other similar issues.

  12. The declared barriers of the large developing countries waste management projects: The STAR model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bufoni, André Luiz; Oliveira, Luciano Basto; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate and describe the barriers system that precludes the feasibility, or limits the performance of the waste management projects through the analysis of which are the declared barriers at the 432 large waste management projects registered as CDM during the period 2004-2014. The final product is a waste management barriers conceptual model proposal (STAR), supported by literature and corroborated by projects design documents. This paper uses the computer assisted qualitative content analysis (CAQCA) methodology with the qualitative data analysis (QDA) software NVivo®, by 890 fragments, to investigate the motives to support our conclusions. Results suggest the main barriers classification in five types: sociopolitical, technological, regulatory, financial, and human resources constraints. Results also suggest that beyond the waste management industry, projects have disadvantages added related to the same barriers inherent to others renewable energies initiatives. The STAR model sheds some light over the interactivity and dynamics related to the main constraints of the industry, describing the mutual influences and relationships among each one. Future researches are needed to better and comprehensively understand these relationships and ease the development of tools to alleviate or eliminate them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Merging symmetry projection methods with coupled cluster theory: Lessons from the Lipkin model Hamiltonian.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlen-Strothman, Jacob M; Henderson, Thomas M; Hermes, Matthew R; Degroote, Matthias; Qiu, Yiheng; Zhao, Jinmo; Dukelsky, Jorge; Scuseria, Gustavo E

    2017-02-07

    Coupled cluster and symmetry projected Hartree-Fock are two central paradigms in electronic structure theory. However, they are very different. Single reference coupled cluster is highly successful for treating weakly correlated systems but fails under strong correlation unless one sacrifices good quantum numbers and works with broken-symmetry wave functions, which is unphysical for finite systems. Symmetry projection is effective for the treatment of strong correlation at the mean-field level through multireference non-orthogonal configuration interaction wavefunctions, but unlike coupled cluster, it is neither size extensive nor ideal for treating dynamic correlation. We here examine different scenarios for merging these two dissimilar theories. We carry out this exercise over the integrable Lipkin model Hamiltonian, which despite its simplicity, encompasses non-trivial physics for degenerate systems and can be solved via diagonalization for a very large number of particles. We show how symmetry projection and coupled cluster doubles individually fail in different correlation limits, whereas models that merge these two theories are highly successful over the entire phase diagram. Despite the simplicity of the Lipkin Hamiltonian, the lessons learned in this work will be useful for building an ab initio symmetry projected coupled cluster theory that we expect to be accurate in the weakly and strongly correlated limits, as well as the recoupling regime.

  14. The Effect of STEM Learning through the Project of Designing Boat Model toward Student STEM Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tati, T.; Firman, H.; Riandi, R.

    2017-09-01

    STEM Learning focusses on development of STEM-literate society, the research about implementation of STEM learning to develope students’ STEM literacy is still limited. This study is aimed to examine the effect of implementation STEM learning through the project of designing boat model on students STEM literacy in energy topic. The method of this study was a quasi-experiment with non-randomized pretest-posttest control group design. There were two classes involved, the experiment class used Project Based Learning with STEM approach and control class used Project-Based Learning without STEM approach. A STEM Literacy test instrument was developed to measure students STEM literacy which consists of science literacy, mathematics literacy, and technology-engineering literacy. The analysis showed that there were significant differences on improvement science literacy, mathematics technology-engineering between experiment class and control class with effect size more than 0.8 (large effect). The difference of improvement of STEM literacy between experiment class and control class is caused by the existence of design engineering activity which required students to apply the knowledge from every field of STEM. The challenge that was faced in STEM learning through design engineering activity was how to give the students practice to integrate STEM field in solving the problems. In additional, most of the students gave positive response toward implementation of STEM learning through design boat model project.

  15. The present and future situation of "model project for investigation and analysis of medical practice associated deaths" in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroki, Hisanaga; Sugimoto, Kana; Nakama, Kentaro; Yamamoto, Takuma; Takeuchi, Dan; Ochi, Hiroshi; Kataoka, Mayumi; Tamura, Yoshihide; Tsujino, Masaki; Mitsukuni, Yoichi; Matoba, Ryoji

    2009-04-01

    To enhance the quality and safety of medical care, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) launched a model project in September 2005 for investigation and analysis of medical practice associated deaths in an attempt to move the existing system in a different direction. The project, initiated in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and Kobe, has now been implemented in nine prefectures. In the hope that the model project will lead to the nationwide development of medical safety investigating committees, the MHLW has submitted a provisional third plan. Based on our practical experience of the model project in Osaka, we present and discuss practical problems and legal issues involving surgeons' criminal punishment.

  16. ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

    2016-04-01

    The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II

  17. Advancing Our Understanding of the Impacts of Historic and Projected Land Use in the Earth System: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, D. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Brovkin, V.; Calvin, K. V.; de Noblet-Ducoudre, N.; Jones, C.; Pongratz, J.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Shevliakova, E.

    2014-12-01

    Earth System Models (ESMs) are including increasingly comprehensive treatments of land use and land management, representing not only land cover change, but also land use in the form of prognostic crop and pasture models, irrigation, fertilization, wood harvest, and urbanization. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) is a new (proposed) satellite-MIP within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that is designed to address the following main science questions: (1) What are the effects of land use and land-use change on climate (past-future)? (2) What are the effects of climate change on land-use and land-use change? (3) Are there regional land management strategies with promise to help mitigate and adapt to climate change? LUMIP will coordinate across existing land use change projects such as LUCID, AgMIP, GSWP3, Trendy, and LUC4C. LUMIP encompasses three major activities: (1) input and output data harmonization and standardization, (2) development of model metrics to assess ESM performance with respect to the impact of land use on climate and carbon cycling, and (3) design and execution of a concise set of land model and ESM experiments for assessment of the impacts of historic and projected land use on the climate system and to separate effects of fossil fuel vs. land use, biogeochemical vs biogeophysical processes, and land cover vs land management. Preliminary results from idealized model experiments will be presented.

  18. [Transparency as a prerequisite of innovation in health services research: deficits in the reporting of model projects concerning managed care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiethege, J; Ommen, O; Ernstmann, N; Pfaff, H

    2010-10-01

    Currently, elements of managed care are being implemented in the German health-care system. The legal basis for these innovations are § 140, § 73, § 137, and §§ 63 et seq. of the German Social Code - Part 5 (SGB V). For the model projects according to §§ 63 et seq. of the German Social Code a scientific evaluation and publication of the evaluation results is mandatory. The present study examines the status of evaluation of German model projects. The present study has a mixed method design: A mail and telephone survey with the German Federal Social Insurance Authority, the health insurance funds, and the regional Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians has been conducted. Furthermore, an internet research on "Medpilot" and "Google" has been accomplished to search for model projects and their evaluation reports. 34 model projects met the inclusion criteria. 13 of these projects had been terminated up to 30/9/2008. 6 of them have published an evaluation report. 4 model projects have published substantial documents. One model project in progress has published a meaningful interim report. 12 model projects failed to give information concerning the evaluator or the duration of the model projects. The results show a significant deficit in the mandatory reporting of the evaluation of model projects in Germany. There is a need for action for the legislator and the health insurance funds in terms of promoting the evaluation and the publication of the results. The institutions evaluating the model projects should obligate themselves to publish the evaluation results. The publication is an essential precondition for the development of managed care structures in the health-care system and in the development of scientific evaluation methods. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation historical and projected changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-03-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr-1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr-1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr-1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N) m-2 yr-1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50 % larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  20. Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

    2017-12-15

    Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  2. Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.; Hatfield, J.; Antle, J. M.; Mutter, C.; Ruane, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. Currently, AgMIP has over 575 participants from more than 45 countries contributing their expertise to over 30 projects and activities. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models with a strong grounding in observations of current agricultural systems around the world. The performance of agricultural models in current climate forms a key basis for our understanding of how crops will respond to future climate changes, and thus AgMIP has a particular focus on extreme heat and drought. Climate, crop model, economics, and information technology protocols are used to guide coordinated AgMIP research activities around the world, along with cross-cutting themes that address aggregation, uncertainty, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other global trends. Research activities include ongoing crop-specific assessments (e.g., maize, wheat, sugarcane, rice) and improvement activities, global gridded crop and economic model intercomparisons, and many other initiatives that allow for the better evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security around the world. AgMIP activities are improving the representation of crop response to changing carbon dioxide, temperature extremes, and water

  3. Prediction of irradiation damage effects by multi-scale modelling: EURATOM 3 Framework integrated project perfect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massoud, J.P.; Bugat, St.; Marini, B.; Lidbury, D.; Van Dyck, St.; Debarberis, L.

    2008-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. In nuclear PWRs, materials undergo degradation due to severe irradiation conditions that may limit their operational life. Utilities operating these reactors must quantify the aging and the potential degradations of reactor pressure vessels and also of internal structures to ensure safe and reliable plant operation. The EURATOM 6. Framework Integrated Project PERFECT (Prediction of Irradiation Damage Effects in Reactor Components) addresses irradiation damage in RPV materials and components by multi-scale modelling. This state-of-the-art approach offers potential advantages over the conventional empirical methods used in current practice of nuclear plant lifetime management. Launched in January 2004, this 48-month project is focusing on two main components of nuclear power plants which are subject to irradiation damage: the ferritic steel reactor pressure vessel and the austenitic steel internals. This project is also an opportunity to integrate the fragmented research and experience that currently exists within Europe in the field of numerical simulation of radiation damage and creates the links with international organisations involved in similar projects throughout the world. Continuous progress in the physical understanding of the phenomena involved in irradiation damage and continuous progress in computer sciences make possible the development of multi-scale numerical tools able to simulate the effects of irradiation on materials microstructure. The consequences of irradiation on mechanical and corrosion properties of materials are also tentatively modelled using such multi-scale modelling. But it requires to develop different mechanistic models at different levels of physics and engineering and to extend the state of knowledge in several scientific fields. And the links between these different kinds of models are particularly delicate to deal with and need specific works. Practically the main objective of PERFECT is to build

  4. Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, M.; Boley, L.; Keenan, L.; Kerstman, E.; Shah, R.; Young, M.; Saile, L.; Garcia, Y.; Meyers, J.; Reyes, D.

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of

  5. Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavana, Madjid

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.

  6. The Aalborg Model in the Ruins: Project-Centred Pedagogy under GATS and Globalisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIlvenny, Paul; Raudaskoski, Pirkko Liisa

    Recently, the Danish higher education sector has become more aware of the issues of academic freedom, democratic control, deregulation and privatisation, eg. with the new university reform law. But we note that not many are as aware of the issues that lie beyond the national debate. The question...... of public services such as higher education. Thus, in this panel, we would like to provide background information on the issues involved, and then critically discuss the possible consequences for Aalborg University’s progressive project-centred pedagogy. 1) Is there a ‘threat’ or a crisis of legitimacy? a....... Is the Aalborg model conducive to marketisation, commodification, benchmarking and audit? b. What impact will modularisation and the supermarket model of student education have on the curricula that are integral to group project-work? c. Will the widening democratic deficit inherent in the corporate university...

  7. The effect of Missouri mathematics project learning model on students’ mathematical problem solving ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, I.; Januar, R. L.; Purwanto, S. E.

    2018-01-01

    This research aims to know the influence of Missouri Mathematics Project Learning Model to Mathematical Problem-solving Ability of Students at Junior High School. This research is a quantitative research and uses experimental research method of Quasi Experimental Design. The research population includes all student of grade VII of Junior High School who are enrolled in the even semester of the academic year 2016/2017. The Sample studied are 76 students from experimental and control groups. The sampling technique being used is cluster sampling method. The instrument is consisted of 7 essay questions whose validity, reliability, difficulty level and discriminating power have been tested. Before analyzing the data by using t-test, the data has fulfilled the requirement for normality and homogeneity. The result of data shows that there is the influence of Missouri mathematics project learning model to mathematical problem-solving ability of students at junior high school with medium effect.

  8. The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

  9. The project management educational institution. A pedagogical model for the formation of competent technicians and technologists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Roberto Tolozano-Benites

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some theoretical and methodological considerations that support a model of institutional educational management for the training of technicians and technologists in the Bolivarian technological Institute of technology (ITB, in the city of Guayaquil, Ecuador. It is considered that different versions of the educational project that have preceded the new proposal, lack of continuity and definition concrete categories that comprise it and the basic elements for practical operation during the management process. Of equal mode, not have favoured the concretion of a plan of development integral that exceed and transfer them borders of the positions academic individual of them managers institutional. The new model is comprised of different components in an organic integration and its application in practice takes place through an institutional educational project

  10. A Project Team Analysis Using Tuckman's Model of Small-Group Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natvig, Deborah; Stark, Nancy L

    2016-12-01

    Concerns about equitable workloads for nursing faculty have been well documented, yet a standardized system for workload management does not exist. A project team was challenged to establish an academic workload management system when two dissimilar universities were consolidated. Tuckman's model of small-group development was used as the framework for the analysis of processes and effectiveness of a workload project team. Agendas, notes, and meeting minutes were used as the primary sources of information. Analysis revealed the challenges the team encountered. Utilization of a team charter was an effective tool in guiding the team to become a highly productive group. Lessons learned from the analysis are discussed. Guiding a diverse group into a highly productive team is complex. The use of Tuckman's model of small-group development provided a systematic mechanism to review and understand group processes and tasks. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(12):675-681.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  11. A Multi-Objective Trade-Off Model in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on the consideration of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives and the inherent nature of sustainable construction projects, this study proposes that the contractor can balance the levels of efforts and resources used to improve the overall project sustainability. A multi-objective trade-off model using game theory was established and verified through simulation and numerical example under a moral hazard situation. Results indicate that effort levels of the contractor on sustainability-related objectives are positively related to the outcome coefficient while negatively to the coefficients of effort cost of the relevant objectives. High levels of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives contribute to high levels of effort of the contractor. With the variation in effort levels and the coefficient of benefit allocation, the project net benefit increases before declining. The function of project benefit has a marked peak value, with an inverted “U” shape. An equilibrium always exists as for the given relative importance and coefficients of the effort costs of sustainability-related objectives. Under this condition, the owner may offer the contractor a less intense incentive and motivate the contractor reasonably arranging input resources. The coefficient of benefit allocation is affected by the contractor characteristic factors and the project characteristic factors. The owner should balance these two types of factors and select the most appropriate incentive mechanism to improve the project benefit. Meanwhile, the contractor can balance the relative importance of the objectives and arrange the appropriate levels of effort and resources to achieve a sustainability-related objective. Very few studies have emphasized the effects of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives on the benefits of sustainable construction projects. This study therefore builds a multi-objective trade

  12. Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontis, Vasilis; Bennett, James E; Mathers, Colin D; Li, Guangquan; Foreman, Kyle; Ezzati, Majid

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model. We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to project age-specific mortality to 2030 in 35 industrialised countries with high-quality vital statistics data. We used age-specific death rates to calculate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, and probability of dying before age 70 years, with life table methods. Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men. There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86·7 years, the same as the highest worldwide life expectancy in 2012, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. Projected female life expectancy in South Korea is followed by those in France, Spain, and Japan. There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years. Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women. The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains. More than half of the projected gains in life expectancy at birth in women will be due to enhanced longevity above age 65 years. There is more than a 50% probability

  13. Effects of Role Division, Interaction, and Shared Mental Model on Team Performance in Project-Based Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Il-Hyun

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the cognitive mechanism of project-based learning teams of college students on the basis of the Shared Mental Model (SMM) theory. The study participants were 237 female college students in Korea organized into 51 project teams. To test the study hypotheses, a structural equation modeling was employed.…

  14. High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0 for CMIP6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Haarsma

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6 is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs. Increases in high-performance computing (HPC resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period

  15. Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

    2017-08-01

    Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

  16. Managing Service Development (SaaS) as a project: business process modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Iliadi, Vasiliki; Ηλιάδη, Βασιλική

    2017-01-01

    In the context of the present thesis, we will be studying core principles of Business Process Management, and how we can take advantage of them in combination with Project Management Methodologies and modeling tools in the context of Software as a Service businesses and their development. Initially we provide the reader with an introduction to Business Process Management, how it can be used, and how the life cycle is structured. We further define the first three phases of the life cycle to...

  17. Applications of geochemical modeling to site characterization and radionuclide transport in the NNWSI project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerrisk, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations project (NNWSI) is studying a site at Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada, as a possible nuclear waste repository. Los Alamos National Laboratory is responsible for the geochemical aspects of site characterization at Yucca Mountain. Geochemical models are being used in site characterization to help understand (a) local water chemistry, (b) local mineralogy, (c) the relation between water chemistry and mineralogy, and (d) the effects of water chemistry and mineralogy on waste-element solubility and transport

  18. E M form factors of the nucleon in a chiral model with momentum projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drago, A.; Tambini, U.; Fiolhais, M.

    1997-01-01

    The chiral chromo dielectric model with a quadratic potential for the confining field is used to compute electromagnetic form factors of the nucleon. A variational approach based on the hedgehog Ansatz and on angular momentum-isospin and linear momentum projection formalism is applied to describe the nucleon. The form factors are computed using momentum eigenstates, therefore taking into account recoil effects. With the exception of the magnetic form factor of the proton, the others are well reproduced. (author)

  19. Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Orr

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6. OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6. Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6 and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen. Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1 will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation

  20. Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; Griffies, Stephen M.; John, Jasmin G.; Joos, Fortunat; Levin, Ingeborg; Lindsay, Keith; Matear, Richard J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Mouchet, Anne; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Schlitzer, Reiner; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Tanhua, Toste; Yool, Andrew

    2017-06-01

    The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are