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Sample records for modeling multiplicative error

  1. Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Carter, Randy L; Cullings, Harry M; Carroll, Raymond J

    2014-11-10

    Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Functional multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Zoh, Roger S; Bazer, Fuller W; Wu, Guoyao; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-05-08

    Objective measures of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production by mammals are used to predict their energy expenditure. Since energy expenditure is not directly observable, it can be viewed as a latent construct with multiple physical indirect measures such as respiratory quotient, volumetric oxygen consumption, and volumetric carbon dioxide production. Metabolic rate is defined as the rate at which metabolism occurs in the body. Metabolic rate is also not directly observable. However, heat is produced as a result of metabolic processes within the body. Therefore, metabolic rate can be approximated by heat production plus some errors. While energy expenditure and metabolic rates are correlated, they are not equivalent. Energy expenditure results from physical function, while metabolism can occur within the body without the occurrence of physical activities. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach for studying the relationship between metabolic rate and indicators of energy expenditure. We do so by extending our previous work on MIMIC ME models to allow responses that are sparsely observed functional data, defining the sparse functional multiple indicators, multiple cause measurement error (FMIMIC ME) models. The mean curves in our proposed methodology are modeled using basis splines. A novel approach for estimating the variance of the classical measurement error based on functional principal components is presented. The model parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm and a discussion of the model's identifiability is provided. We show that the defined model is not a trivial extension of longitudinal or functional data methods, due to the presence of the latent construct. Results from its application to data collected on Zucker diabetic fatty rats are provided. Simulation results investigating the properties of our approach are also presented. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Tang, Ling; Sapiano, Matthew; Maggioni, Viviana; Wu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

  4. Generalized multiplicative error models: Asymptotic inference and empirical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian

    This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part focuses on extended Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) that include two extreme cases for nonnegative series. These extreme cases are common phenomena in high-frequency financial time series. The Location MEM(p,q) model incorporates a location parameter so that the series are required to have positive lower bounds. The estimator for the location parameter turns out to be the minimum of all the observations and is shown to be consistent. The second case captures the nontrivial fraction of zero outcomes feature in a series and combines a so-called Zero-Augmented general F distribution with linear MEM(p,q). Under certain strict stationary and moment conditions, we establish a consistency and asymptotic normality of the semiparametric estimation for these two new models. The second part of this dissertation examines the differences and similarities between trades in the home market and trades in the foreign market of cross-listed stocks. We exploit the multiplicative framework to model trading duration, volume per trade and price volatility for Canadian shares that are cross-listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). We explore the clustering effect, interaction between trading variables, and the time needed for price equilibrium after a perturbation for each market. The clustering effect is studied through the use of univariate MEM(1,1) on each variable, while the interactions among duration, volume and price volatility are captured by a multivariate system of MEM(p,q). After estimating these models by a standard QMLE procedure, we exploit the Impulse Response function to compute the calendar time for a perturbation in these variables to be absorbed into price variance, and use common statistical tests to identify the difference between the two markets in each aspect. These differences are of considerable interest to traders, stock exchanges and policy makers.

  5. Multiple Imputation to Account for Measurement Error in Marginal Structural Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Jessie K; Cole, Stephen R; Westreich, Daniel; Crane, Heidi; Eron, Joseph J; Mathews, W Christopher; Moore, Richard; Boswell, Stephen L; Lesko, Catherine R; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Marginal structural models are an important tool for observational studies. These models typically assume that variables are measured without error. We describe a method to account for differential and nondifferential measurement error in a marginal structural model. We illustrate the method estimating the joint effects of antiretroviral therapy initiation and current smoking on all-cause mortality in a United States cohort of 12,290 patients with HIV followed for up to 5 years between 1998 and 2011. Smoking status was likely measured with error, but a subset of 3,686 patients who reported smoking status on separate questionnaires composed an internal validation subgroup. We compared a standard joint marginal structural model fit using inverse probability weights to a model that also accounted for misclassification of smoking status using multiple imputation. In the standard analysis, current smoking was not associated with increased risk of mortality. After accounting for misclassification, current smoking without therapy was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.2 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.6, 2.3]). The HR for current smoking and therapy [0.4 (95% CI = 0.2, 0.7)] was similar to the HR for no smoking and therapy (0.4; 95% CI = 0.2, 0.6). Multiple imputation can be used to account for measurement error in concert with methods for causal inference to strengthen results from observational studies.

  6. Covariance approximation for large multivariate spatial data sets with an application to multiple climate model errors

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2011-12-01

    This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate models. Our method allows for a nonseparable and nonstationary cross-covariance structure. We also present a covariance approximation approach to facilitate the computation in the modeling and analysis of very large multivariate spatial data sets. The covariance approximation consists of two parts: a reduced-rank part to capture the large-scale spatial dependence, and a sparse covariance matrix to correct the small-scale dependence error induced by the reduced rank approximation. We pay special attention to the case that the second part of the approximation has a block-diagonal structure. Simulation results of model fitting and prediction show substantial improvement of the proposed approximation over the predictive process approximation and the independent blocks analysis. We then apply our computational approach to the joint statistical modeling of multiple climate model errors. © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

  7. Adjustment of Measurements with Multiplicative Errors: Error Analysis, Estimates of the Variance of Unit Weight, and Effect on Volume Estimation from LiDAR-Type Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern observation technology has verified that measurement errors can be proportional to the true values of measurements such as GPS, VLBI baselines and LiDAR. Observational models of this type are called multiplicative error models. This paper is to extend the work of Xu and Shimada published in 2000 on multiplicative error models to analytical error analysis of quantities of practical interest and estimates of the variance of unit weight. We analytically derive the variance-covariance matrices of the three least squares (LS adjustments, the adjusted measurements and the corrections of measurements in multiplicative error models. For quality evaluation, we construct five estimators for the variance of unit weight in association of the three LS adjustment methods. Although LiDAR measurements are contaminated with multiplicative random errors, LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEM have been constructed as if they were of additive random errors. We will simulate a model landslide, which is assumed to be surveyed with LiDAR, and investigate the effect of LiDAR-type multiplicative error measurements on DEM construction and its effect on the estimate of landslide mass volume from the constructed DEM.

  8. Bayesian treatment of a chemical mass balance receptor model with multiplicative error structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keats, Andrew; Cheng, Man-Ting; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang

    The chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model is commonly used in source apportionment studies as a means for attributing measured airborne particulate matter (PM) to its constituent emission sources. Traditionally, error terms (e.g., measurement and source profile uncertainty) associated with the model have been treated in an additive sense. In this work, however, arguments are made for the assumption of multiplicative errors, and the effects of this assumption are realized in a Bayesian probabilistic formulation which incorporates a 'modified' receptor model. One practical, beneficial effect of the multiplicative error assumption is that it automatically precludes the possibility of negative source contributions, without requiring additional constraints on the problem. The present Bayesian treatment further differs from traditional approaches in that the source profiles are inferred alongside the source contributions. Existing knowledge regarding the source profiles is incorporated as prior information to be updated through the Bayesian inferential scheme. Hundreds of parameters are therefore present in the expression for the joint probability of the source contributions and profiles (the posterior probability density function, or PDF), whose domain is explored efficiently using the Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The overall methodology is evaluated and results compared to the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard CMB model using a test case based on PM data from Fresno, California.

  9. Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

    2018-01-06

    Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

  10. Sensory feedback, error correction, and remapping in a multiple oscillator model of place cell activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph D. Monaco

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Mammals navigate by integrating self-motion signals (‘path integration’ and occasionally fixing on familiar environmental landmarks. The rat hippocampus is a model system of spatial representation in which place cells are thought to integrate both sensory and spatial information from entorhinal cortex. The localized firing fields of hippocampal place cells and entorhinal grid cells demonstrate a phase relationship with the local theta (6–10 Hz rhythm that may be a temporal signature of path integration. However, encoding self-motion in the phase of theta oscillations requires high temporal precision and is susceptible to idiothetic noise, neuronal variability, and a changing environment. We present a model based on oscillatory interference theory, previously studied in the context of grid cells, in which transient temporal synchronization among a pool of path-integrating theta oscillators produces hippocampal-like place fields. We hypothesize that a spatiotemporally extended sensory interaction with external cues modulates feedback to the theta oscillators. We implement a form of this cue-driven feedback and show that it can retrieve fixed points in the phase code of position. A single cue can smoothly reset oscillator phases to correct for both systematic errors and continuous noise in path integration. Further, simulations in which local and global cues are rotated against each other reveal a phase-code mechanism in which conflicting cue arrangements can reproduce experimentally observed distributions of ‘partial remapping’ responses. This abstract model demonstrates that phase-code feedback can provide stability to the temporal coding of position during navigation and may contribute to the context-dependence of hippocampal spatial representations. While the anatomical substrates of these processes have not been fully characterized, our findings suggest several signatures that can be evaluated in future experiments.

  11. Survival analysis with time-dependent covariates subject to missing data or measurement error: Multiple Imputation for Joint Modeling (MIJM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Carlin, John B; Brilleman, Samuel L; Tanamas, Stephanie K; Peeters, Anna; Wolfe, Rory

    2017-10-12

    Modern epidemiological studies collect data on time-varying individual-specific characteristics, such as body mass index and blood pressure. Incorporation of such time-dependent covariates in time-to-event models is of great interest, but raises some challenges. Of specific concern are measurement error, and the non-synchronous updating of covariates across individuals, due for example to missing data. It is well known that in the presence of either of these issues the last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach traditionally used leads to bias. Joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, developed recently, address these complexities by specifying a model for the joint distribution of all processes and are commonly fitted by maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. However, the adequate specification of the full joint distribution can be a challenging modeling task, especially with multiple longitudinal markers. In fact, most available software packages are unable to handle more than one marker and offer a restricted choice of survival models. We propose a two-stage approach, Multiple Imputation for Joint Modeling (MIJM), to incorporate multiple time-dependent continuous covariates in the semi-parametric Cox and additive hazard models. Assuming a primary focus on the time-to-event model, the MIJM approach handles the joint distribution of the markers using multiple imputation by chained equations, a computationally convenient procedure that is widely available in mainstream statistical software. We developed an R package "survtd" that allows MIJM and other approaches in this manuscript to be applied easily, with just one call to its main function. A simulation study showed that MIJM performs well across a wide range of scenarios in terms of bias and coverage probability, particularly compared with LOCF, simpler two-stage approaches, and a Bayesian joint model. The Framingham Heart Study is used to illustrate the approach. © The Author 2017

  12. Modeling coherent errors in quantum error correction

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    Greenbaum, Daniel; Dutton, Zachary

    2018-01-01

    Analysis of quantum error correcting codes is typically done using a stochastic, Pauli channel error model for describing the noise on physical qubits. However, it was recently found that coherent errors (systematic rotations) on physical data qubits result in both physical and logical error rates that differ significantly from those predicted by a Pauli model. Here we examine the accuracy of the Pauli approximation for noise containing coherent errors (characterized by a rotation angle ɛ) under the repetition code. We derive an analytic expression for the logical error channel as a function of arbitrary code distance d and concatenation level n, in the small error limit. We find that coherent physical errors result in logical errors that are partially coherent and therefore non-Pauli. However, the coherent part of the logical error is negligible at fewer than {ε }-({dn-1)} error correction cycles when the decoder is optimized for independent Pauli errors, thus providing a regime of validity for the Pauli approximation. Above this number of correction cycles, the persistent coherent logical error will cause logical failure more quickly than the Pauli model would predict, and this may need to be combated with coherent suppression methods at the physical level or larger codes.

  13. A Multiple-Model Particle Filter Fusion Algorithm for GNSS/DR Slide Error Detection and Compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Toledo-Moreo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Continuous accurate positioning is a key element for the deployment of many advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and autonomous vehicle navigation. To achieve the necessary performance, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS must be combined with other technologies. A common onboard sensor-set that allows keeping the cost low, features the GNSS unit, odometry, and inertial sensors, such as a gyro. Odometry and inertial sensors compensate for GNSS flaws in many situations and, in normal conditions, their errors can be easily characterized, thus making the whole solution not only more accurate but also with more integrity. However, odometers do not behave properly when friction conditions make the tires slide. If not properly considered, the positioning perception will not be sound. This article introduces a hybridization approach that takes into consideration the sliding situations by means of a multiple model particle filter (MMPF. Tests with real datasets show the goodness of the proposal.

  14. Aircraft system modeling error and control error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Nilesh V. (Inventor); Kaneshige, John T. (Inventor); Krishnakumar, Kalmanje S. (Inventor); Burken, John J. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A method for modeling error-driven adaptive control of an aircraft. Normal aircraft plant dynamics is modeled, using an original plant description in which a controller responds to a tracking error e(k) to drive the component to a normal reference value according to an asymptote curve. Where the system senses that (1) at least one aircraft plant component is experiencing an excursion and (2) the return of this component value toward its reference value is not proceeding according to the expected controller characteristics, neural network (NN) modeling of aircraft plant operation may be changed. However, if (1) is satisfied but the error component is returning toward its reference value according to expected controller characteristics, the NN will continue to model operation of the aircraft plant according to an original description.

  15. Structure analysis of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh using vector error correction model with multiple alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin

    2017-11-01

    A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).

  16. Transition Models with Measurement Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Magnac, Thierry; Visser, Michael

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate a transition model that allows for measurement errors in the data. The measurement errors arise because the survey design is partly retrospective, so that individuals sometimes forget or misclassify their past labor market transitions. The observed data are adjusted for errors via a measurement-error mechanism. The parameters of the distribution of the true data, and those of the measurement-error mechanism are estimated by a two-stage method. The results, based on ...

  17. A Geomagnetic Reference Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maus, S.; Woods, A. J.; Nair, M. C.

    2011-12-01

    The accuracy of geomagnetic field models, such as the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the World Magnetic Model (WMM), has benefitted tremendously from the ongoing series of satellite magnetic missions. However, what do we mean by accuracy? When comparing a geomagnetic reference model with a magnetic field measurement (for example of an electronic compass), three contributions play a role: (1) The instrument error, which is not subject of this discussion, (2) the error of commission, namely the error of the model coefficients themselves in representing the geomagnetic main field, and (3) the error of omission, comprising contributions to the geomagnetic field which are not represented in the reference model. The latter can further be subdivided into the omission of the crustal field and the omission of the disturbance field. Several factors have a strong influence on these errors: The error of commission primarily depends on the time elapsed since the last update of the reference model. The omission error for the crustal field depends on altitude of the measurement, while the omission error for the disturbance field has a strong latitudinal dependence, peaking under the auroral electrojets. A further complication arises for the uncertainty in magnetic declination, which is directly dependent on the strength of the horizontal field. Here, we present an error model which takes all of these factors into account. This error model will be implemented as an online-calculator, providing the uncertainty of the magnetic elements at the entered location and time.

  18. State-dependent errors in a land surface model across biomes inferred from eddy covariance observations on multiple timescales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, T.; Brender, P.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Mahecha, M.D.; Chevallier, F.; Reichstein, M.; Ottle, C.; Maignan, F.; Arain, A.; Bohrer, G.; Cescatti, A.; Kiely, G.; Law, B.E.; Lutz, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of state-dependent model biases in land surface models can highlight model deficiencies, and provide new insights into model development. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used to estimate the state-dependent biases of a land surface model (ORCHIDEE: ORganising

  19. False Positives in Multiple Regression: Unanticipated Consequences of Measurement Error in the Predictor Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shear, Benjamin R.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2013-01-01

    Type I error rates in multiple regression, and hence the chance for false positive research findings, can be drastically inflated when multiple regression models are used to analyze data that contain random measurement error. This article shows the potential for inflated Type I error rates in commonly encountered scenarios and provides new…

  20. Stochastic Models of Human Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

  1. Measurement error models with interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midthune, Douglas; Carroll, Raymond J.; Freedman, Laurence S.; Kipnis, Victor

    2016-01-01

    An important use of measurement error models is to correct regression models for bias due to covariate measurement error. Most measurement error models assume that the observed error-prone covariate (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$W$\\end{document}) is a linear function of the unobserved true covariate (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$X$\\end{document}) plus other covariates (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$Z$\\end{document}) in the regression model. In this paper, we consider models for \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$W$\\end{document} that include interactions between \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$X$\\end{document} and \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$Z$\\end{document}. We derive the conditional distribution of

  2. A vector model for error propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.; Geraldo, L.P.

    1989-03-01

    A simple vector model for error propagation, which is entirely equivalent to the conventional statistical approach, is discussed. It offers considerable insight into the nature of error propagation while, at the same time, readily demonstrating the significance of uncertainty correlations. This model is well suited to the analysis of error for sets of neutron-induced reaction cross sections. 7 refs., 1 fig.

  3. Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cribbie, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

  4. Reference-free error estimation for multiple measurement methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madan, Hennadii; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

    2018-01-01

    We present a computational framework to select the most accurate and precise method of measurement of a certain quantity, when there is no access to the true value of the measurand. A typical use case is when several image analysis methods are applied to measure the value of a particular quantitative imaging biomarker from the same images. The accuracy of each measurement method is characterized by systematic error (bias), which is modeled as a polynomial in true values of measurand, and the precision as random error modeled with a Gaussian random variable. In contrast to previous works, the random errors are modeled jointly across all methods, thereby enabling the framework to analyze measurement methods based on similar principles, which may have correlated random errors. Furthermore, the posterior distribution of the error model parameters is estimated from samples obtained by Markov chain Monte-Carlo and analyzed to estimate the parameter values and the unknown true values of the measurand. The framework was validated on six synthetic and one clinical dataset containing measurements of total lesion load, a biomarker of neurodegenerative diseases, which was obtained with four automatic methods by analyzing brain magnetic resonance images. The estimates of bias and random error were in a good agreement with the corresponding least squares regression estimates against a reference.

  5. Estimation of error components in a multi-error linear regression model, with an application to track fitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fruehwirth, R.

    1993-01-01

    We present an estimation procedure of the error components in a linear regression model with multiple independent stochastic error contributions. After solving the general problem we apply the results to the estimation of the actual trajectory in track fitting with multiple scattering. (orig.)

  6. Measurement error models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Buonaccorsi, John P

    2010-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, comprehensive strategies for treating measurement error in complex models and accounting for the use of extra data to estimate measurement error parameters have emerged. Focusing on both established and novel approaches, ""Measurement Error: Models, Methods, and Applications"" provides an overview of the main techniques and illustrates their application in various models. It describes the impacts of measurement errors on naive analyses that ignore them and presents ways to correct for them across a variety of statistical models, from simple one-sample problems to regres

  7. Error estimation and adaptive chemical transport modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Braack

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a numerical method to use several chemical transport models of increasing accuracy and complexity in an adaptive way. In largest parts of the domain, a simplified chemical model may be used, whereas in certain regions a more complex model is needed for accuracy reasons. A mathematically derived error estimator measures the modeling error and provides information where to use more accurate models. The error is measured in terms of output functionals. Therefore, one has to consider adjoint problems which carry sensitivity information. This concept is demonstrated by means of ozone formation and pollution emission.

  8. Simultaneous Treatment of Missing Data and Measurement Error in HIV Research Using Multiple Overimputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Hogger, Sara; Johnson, Leigh F; Hoffmann, Christopher J; Bärnighausen, Till; Heumann, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Both CD4 count and viral load in HIV-infected persons are measured with error. There is no clear guidance on how to deal with this measurement error in the presence of missing data. We used multiple overimputation, a method recently developed in the political sciences, to account for both measurement error and missing data in CD4 count and viral load measurements from four South African cohorts of a Southern African HIV cohort collaboration. Our knowledge about the measurement error of ln CD4 and log10 viral load is part of an imputation model that imputes both missing and mismeasured data. In an illustrative example, we estimate the association of CD4 count and viral load with the hazard of death among patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy by means of a Cox model. Simulation studies evaluate the extent to which multiple overimputation is able to reduce bias in survival analyses. Multiple overimputation emphasizes more strongly the influence of having high baseline CD4 counts compared to both a complete case analysis and multiple imputation (hazard ratio for >200 cells/mm vs. <25 cells/mm: 0.21 [95% confidence interval: 0.18, 0.24] vs. 0.38 [0.29, 0.48], and 0.29 [0.25, 0.34], respectively). Similar results are obtained when varying assumptions about measurement error, when using p-splines, and when evaluating time-updated CD4 count in a longitudinal analysis. The estimates of the association with viral load are slightly more attenuated when using multiple imputation instead of multiple overimputation. Our simulation studies suggest that multiple overimputation is able to reduce bias and mean squared error in survival analyses. Multiple overimputation, which can be used with existing software, offers a convenient approach to account for both missing and mismeasured data in HIV research.

  9. Simultaneous processing of information on multiple errors in visuomotor learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasuga, Shoko; Hirashima, Masaya; Nozaki, Daichi

    2013-01-01

    The proper association between planned and executed movements is crucial for motor learning because the discrepancies between them drive such learning. Our study explored how this association was determined when a single action caused the movements of multiple visual objects. Participants reached toward a target by moving a cursor, which represented the right hand's position. Once every five to six normal trials, we interleaved either of two kinds of visual perturbation trials: rotation of the cursor by a certain amount (±15°, ±30°, and ±45°) around the starting position (single-cursor condition) or rotation of two cursors by different angles (+15° and -45°, 0° and 30°, etc.) that were presented simultaneously (double-cursor condition). We evaluated the aftereffects of each condition in the subsequent trial. The error sensitivity (ratio of the aftereffect to the imposed visual rotation) in the single-cursor trials decayed with the amount of rotation, indicating that the motor learning system relied to a greater extent on smaller errors. In the double-cursor trials, we obtained a coefficient that represented the degree to which each of the visual rotations contributed to the aftereffects based on the assumption that the observed aftereffects were a result of the weighted summation of the influences of the imposed visual rotations. The decaying pattern according to the amount of rotation was maintained in the coefficient of each imposed visual rotation in the double-cursor trials, but the value was reduced to approximately 40% of the corresponding error sensitivity in the single-cursor trials. We also found a further reduction of the coefficients when three distinct cursors were presented (e.g., -15°, 15°, and 30°). These results indicated that the motor learning system utilized multiple sources of visual error information simultaneously to correct subsequent movement and that a certain averaging mechanism might be at work in the utilization process.

  10. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  11. Error Resilient Video Compression Using Behavior Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacco R. Taal

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Wireless and Internet video applications are inherently subjected to bit errors and packet errors, respectively. This is especially so if constraints on the end-to-end compression and transmission latencies are imposed. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods to optimize the video compression parameters and the rate allocation of these applications that take into account residual channel bit errors. In this paper, we study the behavior of a predictive (interframe video encoder and model the encoders behavior using only the statistics of the original input data and of the underlying channel prone to bit errors. The resulting data-driven behavior models are then used to carry out group-of-pictures partitioning and to control the rate of the video encoder in such a way that the overall quality of the decoded video with compression and channel errors is optimized.

  12. Functional Error Models to Accelerate Nested Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josset, L.; Elsheikh, A. H.; Demyanov, V.; Lunati, I.

    2014-12-01

    The main challenge in groundwater problems is the reliance on large numbers of unknown parameters with wide rage of associated uncertainties. To translate this uncertainty to quantities of interest (for instance the concentration of pollutant in a drinking well), a large number of forward flow simulations is required. To make the problem computationally tractable, Josset et al. (2013, 2014) introduced the concept of functional error models. It consists in two elements: a proxy model that is cheaper to evaluate than the full physics flow solver and an error model to account for the missing physics. The coupling of the proxy model and the error models provides reliable predictions that approximate the full physics model's responses. The error model is tailored to the problem at hand by building it for the question of interest. It follows a typical approach in machine learning where both the full physics and proxy models are evaluated for a training set (subset of realizations) and the set of responses is used to construct the error model using functional data analysis. Once the error model is devised, a prediction of the full physics response for a new geostatistical realization can be obtained by computing the proxy response and applying the error model. We propose the use of functional error models in a Bayesian inference context by combining it to the Nested Sampling (Skilling 2006; El Sheikh et al. 2013, 2014). Nested Sampling offers a mean to compute the Bayesian Evidence by transforming the multidimensional integral into a 1D integral. The algorithm is simple: starting with an active set of samples, at each iteration, the sample with the lowest likelihood is kept aside and replaced by a sample of higher likelihood. The main challenge is to find this sample of higher likelihood. We suggest a new approach: first the active set is sampled, both proxy and full physics models are run and the functional error model is build. Then, at each iteration of the Nested

  13. Mathematical Model of the Laser Gyro Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Enin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analysed and systemised results of the experimental study of laser gyro (LG errors. Determines a structure of the resulting LG error, as a linear combination of the random processes, characterizing natural and technical fluctuations of difference frequency of the counter-propagating waves, with a random constant zero shift available in the sensor readings. Formulates the requirements for the structure and form of the analytic description of the error model. Shows a generalized model of the LG fluctuation processes, on the basis of which a mathematical model of LG errors was developed as an inertial sensor.The model is represented by a system of the stochastic differential equations and functional relationships to characterize a resulting error of the sensor. The paper provides a correlation analysis of the model equations and final equations obtained for the mean-square values of the particular components, which allow us to identify the resulting error parameters. The model parameters are presented through the values of the power spectral density of the particular components. The discrete form of the model is considered, the convergence of continuous and difference equations is shown in fulfilling conditions of the limiting transition. Further research activities are defined.

  14. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  15. Soft error mechanisms, modeling and mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Sayil, Selahattin

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces readers to various radiation soft-error mechanisms such as soft delays, radiation induced clock jitter and pulses, and single event (SE) coupling induced effects. In addition to discussing various radiation hardening techniques for combinational logic, the author also describes new mitigation strategies targeting commercial designs. Coverage includes novel soft error mitigation techniques such as the Dynamic Threshold Technique and Soft Error Filtering based on Transmission gate with varied gate and body bias. The discussion also includes modeling of SE crosstalk noise, delay and speed-up effects. Various mitigation strategies to eliminate SE coupling effects are also introduced. Coverage also includes the reliability of low power energy-efficient designs and the impact of leakage power consumption optimizations on soft error robustness. The author presents an analysis of various power optimization techniques, enabling readers to make design choices that reduce static power consumption an...

  16. Statistical design and analysis for plant cover studies with multiple sources of observation errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Wilson; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Warren, Jeffrey M .; Barnett, Jenny K.

    2017-01-01

    Effective wildlife habitat management and conservation requires understanding the factors influencing distribution and abundance of plant species. Field studies, however, have documented observation errors in visually estimated plant cover including measurements which differ from the true value (measurement error) and not observing a species that is present within a plot (detection error). Unlike the rapid expansion of occupancy and N-mixture models for analysing wildlife surveys, development of statistical models accounting for observation error in plants has not progressed quickly. Our work informs development of a monitoring protocol for managed wetlands within the National Wildlife Refuge System.Zero-augmented beta (ZAB) regression is the most suitable method for analysing areal plant cover recorded as a continuous proportion but assumes no observation errors. We present a model extension that explicitly includes the observation process thereby accounting for both measurement and detection errors. Using simulations, we compare our approach to a ZAB regression that ignores observation errors (naïve model) and an “ad hoc” approach using a composite of multiple observations per plot within the naïve model. We explore how sample size and within-season revisit design affect the ability to detect a change in mean plant cover between 2 years using our model.Explicitly modelling the observation process within our framework produced unbiased estimates and nominal coverage of model parameters. The naïve and “ad hoc” approaches resulted in underestimation of occurrence and overestimation of mean cover. The degree of bias was primarily driven by imperfect detection and its relationship with cover within a plot. Conversely, measurement error had minimal impacts on inferences. We found >30 plots with at least three within-season revisits achieved reasonable posterior probabilities for assessing change in mean plant cover.For rapid adoption and application, code

  17. Understanding error generation in fused deposition modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochmann, Lennart; Transchel, Robert; Wegener, Konrad; Bayley, Cindy; Helu, Moneer; Dornfeld, David

    2015-01-01

    Additive manufacturing offers completely new possibilities for the manufacturing of parts. The advantages of flexibility and convenience of additive manufacturing have had a significant impact on many industries, and optimizing part quality is crucial for expanding its utilization. This research aims to determine the sources of imprecision in fused deposition modeling (FDM). Process errors in terms of surface quality, accuracy and precision are identified and quantified, and an error-budget approach is used to characterize errors of the machine tool. It was determined that accuracy and precision in the y direction (0.08–0.30 mm) are generally greater than in the x direction (0.12–0.62 mm) and the z direction (0.21–0.57 mm). Furthermore, accuracy and precision tend to decrease at increasing axis positions. The results of this work can be used to identify possible process improvements in the design and control of FDM technology. (paper)

  18. Understanding error generation in fused deposition modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochmann, Lennart; Bayley, Cindy; Helu, Moneer; Transchel, Robert; Wegener, Konrad; Dornfeld, David

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing offers completely new possibilities for the manufacturing of parts. The advantages of flexibility and convenience of additive manufacturing have had a significant impact on many industries, and optimizing part quality is crucial for expanding its utilization. This research aims to determine the sources of imprecision in fused deposition modeling (FDM). Process errors in terms of surface quality, accuracy and precision are identified and quantified, and an error-budget approach is used to characterize errors of the machine tool. It was determined that accuracy and precision in the y direction (0.08-0.30 mm) are generally greater than in the x direction (0.12-0.62 mm) and the z direction (0.21-0.57 mm). Furthermore, accuracy and precision tend to decrease at increasing axis positions. The results of this work can be used to identify possible process improvements in the design and control of FDM technology.

  19. Nonclassical measurements errors in nonlinear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir

    that contains very detailed information about incomes. This gives a unique opportunity to learn about the magnitude and nature of the measurement error in income reported by the respondents in the Danish NTS compared to income from the administrative register (correct measure). We find that the classical...... of a households face. In this case an important policy parameter is the effect of income (reflecting the household budget) on the choice of travel mode. This paper deals with the consequences of measurement error in income (an explanatory variable) in discrete choice models. Since it is likely to give misleading...... estimates of the income effect it is of interest to investigate the magnitude of the estimation bias and if possible use estimation techniques that take the measurement error problem into account. We use data from the Danish National Travel Survey (NTS) and merge it with administrative register data...

  20. Effect of GPS errors on Emission model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehmann, Anders; Gross, Allan

    n this paper we will show how Global Positioning Services (GPS) data obtained from smartphones can be used to model air quality in urban settings. The paper examines the uncertainty of smartphone location utilising GPS, and ties this location uncertainty to air quality models. The results presented...... in this paper indicates that the location error from using smartphones is within the accuracy needed to use the location data in air quality modelling. The nature of smartphone location data enables more accurate and near real time air quality modelling and monitoring. The location data is harvested from user...

  1. Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.

    2014-01-01

    Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

  2. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  3. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  4. A multiple-substream unequal error-protection and error-concealment algorithm for SPIHT-coded video bitstreams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joohee; Mersereau, Russell M; Altunbasak, Yucel

    2004-12-01

    This paper presents a coordinated multiple-substream unequal error-protection and error-concealment algorithm for SPIHT-coded bitstreams transmitted over lossy channels. In the proposed scheme, we divide the video sequence corresponding to a group of pictures into two subsequences and independently encode each subsequence using a three-dimensional SPIHT algorithm. We use two different partitioning schemes to generate the substreams, each of which offers some advantages under the appropriate channel condition. Each substream is protected by an FEC-based unequal error-protection algorithm, which assigns unequal forward error correction codes to each bit plane. Any information that is lost during the transmission for any substream is estimated at the receiver by using the correlation between the substreams and the smoothness of the video signal. Simulation results show that the proposed multiple-substream UEP algorithm is simple, fast, and robust in hostile network conditions, and that the proposed error-concealment algorithm can achieve 2-3-dB PSNR gain over the case when error concealment is not used at high packet-loss rates.

  5. Estimating model error covariances in nonlinear state-space models using Kalman smoothing and the expectation-maximisation algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Dreano, Denis

    2017-04-05

    Specification and tuning of errors from dynamical models are important issues in data assimilation. In this work, we propose an iterative expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to estimate the model error covariances using classical extended and ensemble versions of the Kalman smoother. We show that, for additive model errors, the estimate of the error covariance converges. We also investigate other forms of model error, such as parametric or multiplicative errors. We show that additive Gaussian model error is able to compensate for non additive sources of error in the algorithms we propose. We also demonstrate the limitations of the extended version of the algorithm and recommend the use of the more robust and flexible ensemble version. This article is a proof of concept of the methodology with the Lorenz-63 attractor. We developed an open-source Python library to enable future users to apply the algorithm to their own nonlinear dynamical models.

  6. Analysis of error-prone survival data under additive hazards models: measurement error effects and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ying; Yi, Grace Y

    2016-07-01

    Covariate measurement error occurs commonly in survival analysis. Under the proportional hazards model, measurement error effects have been well studied, and various inference methods have been developed to correct for error effects under such a model. In contrast, error-contaminated survival data under the additive hazards model have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we investigate this problem by exploring measurement error effects on parameter estimation and the change of the hazard function. New insights of measurement error effects are revealed, as opposed to well-documented results for the Cox proportional hazards model. We propose a class of bias correction estimators that embraces certain existing estimators as special cases. In addition, we exploit the regression calibration method to reduce measurement error effects. Theoretical results for the developed methods are established, and numerical assessments are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of our methods.

  7. Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntuen, Celestine A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.

  8. Assessment of Multiple Scattering Errors of Laser Diffraction Instruments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Strakey, Peter

    2003-01-01

    The accuracy of two commercial laser diffraction instruments was compared under conditions of multiple scattering designed to simulate the high droplet number densities encountered in liquid propellant rocket combustors...

  9. Error Propagation in Equations for Geochemical Modeling of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents error propagation equations for modeling of radiogenic isotopes during mixing of two components or end-members. These equations can be used to estimate errors on an isotopic ratio in the mixture of two components, as a function of the analytical errors or the total errors of geological field sampling ...

  10. the sensitivity of evapotranspiration models to errors in model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. Five evapotranspiration (Et) model-the penman, Blaney - Criddel, Thornthwaite, the Blaney –. Morin-Nigeria, and the Jensen and Haise models – were analyzed for parameter sensitivity under Nigerian Climatic conditions. The sensitivity of each model to errors in any of its measured parameters (variables) was ...

  11. Measurement Model Specification Error in LISREL Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Beatrice; Lomax, Richard

    This LISREL study examines the robustness of the maximum likelihood estimates under varying degrees of measurement model misspecification. A true model containing five latent variables (two endogenous and three exogenous) and two indicator variables per latent variable was used. Measurement model misspecification considered included errors of…

  12. An empirical assessment of exposure measurement errors and effect attenuation in bi-pollutant epidemiologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using multipollutant models to understand the combined health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants is becoming more common. However, the complex relationships between pollutants and differing degrees of exposure error across pollutants can make health effect estimates from ...

  13. An empirical assessment of exposure measurement error and effect attenuation in bi-pollutant epidemiologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Using multipollutant models to understand combined health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants is becoming more common. However, complex relationships between pollutants and differing degrees of exposure error across pollutants can make health effect estimates f...

  14. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  15. Sinusoidal error perturbation reveals multiple coordinate systems for sensorymotor adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Todd E; Landy, Michael S

    2016-02-01

    A coordinate system is composed of an encoding, defining the dimensions of the space, and an origin. We examine the coordinate encoding used to update motor plans during sensory-motor adaptation to center-out reaches. Adaptation is induced using a novel paradigm in which feedback of reach endpoints is perturbed following a sinewave pattern over trials; the perturbed dimensions of the feedback were the axes of a Cartesian coordinate system in one session and a polar coordinate system in another session. For center-out reaches to randomly chosen target locations, reach errors observed at one target will require different corrections at other targets within Cartesian- and polar-coded systems. The sinewave adaptation technique allowed us to simultaneously adapt both dimensions of each coordinate system (x-y, or reach gain and angle), and identify the contributions of each perturbed dimension by adapting each at a distinct temporal frequency. The efficiency of this technique further allowed us to employ perturbations that were a fraction the size normally used, which avoids confounding automatic adaptive processes with deliberate adjustments made in response to obvious experimental manipulations. Subjects independently corrected errors in each coordinate in both sessions, suggesting that the nervous system encodes both a Cartesian- and polar-coordinate-based internal representation for motor adaptation. The gains and phase lags of the adaptive responses are not readily explained by current theories of sensory-motor adaptation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Sinusoidal error perturbation reveals multiple coordinate systems for sensorymotor adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Todd E.; Landy, Michael S.

    2016-01-01

    A coordinate system is composed of an encoding, defining the dimensions of the space, and an origin. We examine the coordinate encoding used to update motor plans during sensory-motor adaptation to center-out reaches. Adaptation is induced using a novel paradigm in which feedback of reach endpoints is perturbed following a sinewave pattern over trials; the perturbed dimensions of the feedback were the axes of a Cartesian coordinate system in one session and a polar coordinate system in another session. For center-out reaches to randomly chosen target locations, reach errors observed at one target will require different corrections at other targets within Cartesian- and polar-coded systems. The sinewave adaptation technique allowed us to simultaneously adapt both dimensions of each coordinate system (x-y, or reach gain and angle), and identify the contributions of each perturbed dimension by adapting each at a distinct temporal frequency. The efficiency of this technique further allowed us to employ perturbations that were a fraction the size normally used, which avoids confounding automatic adaptive processes with deliberate adjustments made in response to obvious experimental manipulations. Subjects independently corrected errors in each coordinate in both sessions, suggesting that the nervous system encodes both a Cartesian- and polar-coordinate-based internal representation for motor adaptation. The gains and phase lags of the adaptive responses are not readily explained by current theories of sensory-motor adaptation. Motor adaptation is fundamental to the neural control of movement, affording an automatic process to maintain a consistent relationship between motor plans and movement outcomes. That is, adaptation is described as updating an internal mapping between desired motor outcome and motor output (Sanger, 2004; Shadmehr, Smith, & Krakauer, 2010), not a deliberate corrective action. Here, using a method that relies on extremely small perturbations that

  17. Methods and apparatus using commutative error detection values for fault isolation in multiple node computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almasi, Gheorghe [Ardsley, NY; Blumrich, Matthias Augustin [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton-On-Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul [Yorktown, NY; Gara, Alan [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Hoenicke, Dirk I [Ossining, NY; Singh, Sarabjeet [Mississauga, CA; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D [Wernau, DE; Takken, Todd [Brewster, NY; Vranas, Pavlos [Bedford Hills, NY

    2008-06-03

    Methods and apparatus perform fault isolation in multiple node computing systems using commutative error detection values for--example, checksums--to identify and to isolate faulty nodes. When information associated with a reproducible portion of a computer program is injected into a network by a node, a commutative error detection value is calculated. At intervals, node fault detection apparatus associated with the multiple node computer system retrieve commutative error detection values associated with the node and stores them in memory. When the computer program is executed again by the multiple node computer system, new commutative error detection values are created and stored in memory. The node fault detection apparatus identifies faulty nodes by comparing commutative error detection values associated with reproducible portions of the application program generated by a particular node from different runs of the application program. Differences in values indicate a possible faulty node.

  18. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  19. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  20. Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Gui-Long

    2001-01-01

    This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

  1. Modeling measurement error in tumor characterization studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjoram Paul

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Etiologic studies of cancer increasingly use molecular features such as gene expression, DNA methylation and sequence mutation to subclassify the cancer type. In large population-based studies, the tumor tissues available for study are archival specimens that provide variable amounts of amplifiable DNA for molecular analysis. As molecular features measured from small amounts of tumor DNA are inherently noisy, we propose a novel approach to improve statistical efficiency when comparing groups of samples. We illustrate the phenomenon using the MethyLight technology, applying our proposed analysis to compare MLH1 DNA methylation levels in males and females studied in the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Results We introduce two methods for computing empirical weights to model heteroscedasticity that is caused by sampling variable quantities of DNA for molecular analysis. In a simulation study, we show that using these weights in a linear regression model is more powerful for identifying differentially methylated loci than standard regression analysis. The increase in power depends on the underlying relationship between variation in outcome measure and input DNA quantity in the study samples. Conclusions Tumor characteristics measured from small amounts of tumor DNA are inherently noisy. We propose a statistical analysis that accounts for the measurement error due to sampling variation of the molecular feature and show how it can improve the power to detect differential characteristics between patient groups.

  2. VOLUMETRIC ERROR COMPENSATION IN FIVE-AXIS CNC MACHINING CENTER THROUGH KINEMATICS MODELING OF GEOMETRIC ERROR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooyan Vahidi Pashsaki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy of a five-axis CNC machine tool is affected by a vast number of error sources. This paper investigates volumetric error modeling and its compensation to the basis for creation of new tool path for improvement of work pieces accuracy. The volumetric error model of a five-axis machine tool with the configuration RTTTR (tilting head B-axis and rotary table in work piece side A΄ was set up taking into consideration rigid body kinematics and homogeneous transformation matrix, in which 43 error components are included. Volumetric error comprises 43 error components that can separately reduce geometrical and dimensional accuracy of work pieces. The machining accuracy of work piece is guaranteed due to the position of the cutting tool center point (TCP relative to the work piece. The cutting tool is deviated from its ideal position relative to the work piece and machining error is experienced. For compensation process detection of the present tool path and analysis of the RTTTR five-axis CNC machine tools geometrical error, translating current position of component to compensated positions using the Kinematics error model, converting newly created component to new tool paths using the compensation algorithms and finally editing old G-codes using G-code generator algorithm have been employed.

  3. Error analysis of dimensionless scaling experiments with multiple points using linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guercan, Oe.D.; Vermare, L.; Hennequin, P.; Bourdelle, C.

    2010-01-01

    A general method of error estimation in the case of multiple point dimensionless scaling experiments, using linear regression and standard error propagation, is proposed. The method reduces to the previous result of Cordey (2009 Nucl. Fusion 49 052001) in the case of a two-point scan. On the other hand, if the points follow a linear trend, it explains how the estimated error decreases as more points are added to the scan. Based on the analytical expression that is derived, it is argued that for a low number of points, adding points to the ends of the scanned range, rather than the middle, results in a smaller error estimate. (letter)

  4. The Maximum Error Probability Criterion, Random Encoder, and Feedback, in Multiple Input Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Cai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available For a multiple input channel, one may define different capacity regions, according to the criterions of error, types of codes, and presence of feedback. In this paper, we aim to draw a complete picture of relations among these different capacity regions. To this end, we first prove that the average-error-probability capacity region of a multiple input channel can be achieved by a random code under the criterion of maximum error probability. Moreover, we show that for a non-deterministic multiple input channel with feedback, the capacity regions are the same under two different error criterions. In addition, we discuss two special classes of channels to shed light on the relation of different capacity regions. In particular, to illustrate the roles of feedback, we provide a class of MAC, for which feedback may enlarge maximum-error-probability capacity regions, but not average-error-capacity regions. Besides, we present a class of MAC, as an example for which the maximum-error-probability capacity regions are strictly smaller than the average-error-probability capacity regions (first example showing this was due to G. Dueck. Differently from G. Dueck’s enlightening example in which a deterministic MAC was considered, our example includes and further generalizes G. Dueck’s example by taking both deterministic and non-deterministic MACs into account. Finally, we extend our results for a discrete memoryless two-input channel, to compound, arbitrarily varying MAC, and MAC with more than two inputs.

  5. Quasi-eccentricity error modeling and compensation in vision metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yijun; Zhang, Xu; Cheng, Wei; Zhu, Limin

    2018-04-01

    Circular targets are commonly used in vision applications for its detection accuracy and robustness. The eccentricity error of the circular target caused by perspective projection is one of the main factors of measurement error which needs to be compensated in high-accuracy measurement. In this study, the impact of the lens distortion on the eccentricity error is comprehensively investigated. The traditional eccentricity error turns to a quasi-eccentricity error in the non-linear camera model. The quasi-eccentricity error model is established by comparing the quasi-center of the distorted ellipse with the true projection of the object circle center. Then, an eccentricity error compensation framework is proposed which compensates the error by iteratively refining the image point to the true projection of the circle center. Both simulation and real experiment confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in several vision applications.

  6. Measurement Error in Designed Experiments for Second Order Models

    OpenAIRE

    McMahan, Angela Renee

    1997-01-01

    Measurement error (ME) in the factor levels of designed experiments is often overlooked in the planning and analysis of experimental designs. A familiar model for this type of ME, called the Berkson error model, is discussed at length. Previous research has examined the effect of Berkson error on two-level factorial and fractional factorial designs. This dissertation extends the examination to designs for second order models. The results are used to suggest ...

  7. Accounting for data errors discovered from an audit in multiple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Bryan E; Yu, Chang

    2011-09-01

    A data coordinating team performed onsite audits and discovered discrepancies between the data sent to the coordinating center and that recorded at sites. We present statistical methods for incorporating audit results into analyses. This can be thought of as a measurement error problem, where the distribution of errors is a mixture with a point mass at 0. If the error rate is nonzero, then even if the mean of the discrepancy between the reported and correct values of a predictor is 0, naive estimates of the association between two continuous variables will be biased. We consider scenarios where there are (1) errors in the predictor, (2) errors in the outcome, and (3) possibly correlated errors in the predictor and outcome. We show how to incorporate the error rate and magnitude, estimated from a random subset (the audited records), to compute unbiased estimates of association and proper confidence intervals. We then extend these results to multiple linear regression where multiple covariates may be incorrect in the database and the rate and magnitude of the errors may depend on study site. We study the finite sample properties of our estimators using simulations, discuss some practical considerations, and illustrate our methods with data from 2815 HIV-infected patients in Latin America, of whom 234 had their data audited using a sequential auditing plan. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Error Covariance Penalized Regression: A novel multivariate model combining penalized regression with multivariate error structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allegrini, Franco; Braga, Jez W B; Moreira, Alessandro C O; Olivieri, Alejandro C

    2018-06-29

    A new multivariate regression model, named Error Covariance Penalized Regression (ECPR) is presented. Following a penalized regression strategy, the proposed model incorporates information about the measurement error structure of the system, using the error covariance matrix (ECM) as a penalization term. Results are reported from both simulations and experimental data based on replicate mid and near infrared (MIR and NIR) spectral measurements. The results for ECPR are better under non-iid conditions when compared with traditional first-order multivariate methods such as ridge regression (RR), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least-squares regression (PLS). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, H. -Y.; Xie, S.; Klein, S. A.; Williams, K. D.; Boyle, J. S.; Bony, S.; Douville, H.; Fermepin, S.; Medeiros, B.; Tyteca, S.; Watanabe, M.; Williamson, D.

    2014-02-01

    The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.

  10. Bayesian Total Error Analysis - An Error Sensitive Approach to Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, S. W.; Kavetski, D.; Kuczera, G.

    2002-12-01

    The majority of environmental models require calibration of their parameters before meaningful predictions of catchment behaviour can be made. Despite the importance of reliable parameter estimates, there are growing concerns about the ability of objective-based inference methods to adequately calibrate environmental models. The problem lies with the formulation of the objective or likelihood function, which is currently implemented using essentially ad-hoc methods. We outline limitations of current calibration methodologies and introduce a more systematic Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) framework for environmental model calibration and validation, which imposes a hitherto missing rigour in environmental modelling by requiring the specification of physically realistic model and data uncertainty models with explicit assumptions that can and must be tested against available evidence. The BATEA formalism enables inference of the hydrological parameters and also of any latent variables of the uncertainty models, e.g., precipitation depth errors. The latter could be useful for improving data sampling and measurement methodologies. In addition, distinguishing between the various sources of errors will reduce the current ambiguity about parameter and predictive uncertainty and enable rational testing of environmental models' hypotheses. Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods are employed to manage the increased computational requirements of BATEA. A case study using synthetic data demonstrates that explicitly accounting for forcing errors leads to immediate advantages over traditional regression (e.g., standard least squares calibration) that ignore rainfall history corruption and pseudo-likelihood methods (e.g., GLUE) do not explicitly characterise data and model errors. It is precisely data and model errors that are responsible for the need for calibration in the first place; we expect that understanding these errors will force fundamental shifts in the model

  11. Study of error modeling in kinematic calibration of parallel manipulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Error modeling is the foundation of a kinematic calibration which is a main approach to assure the accuracy of parallel manipulators. This article investigates the influence of error model on the kinematic calibration of parallel manipulators. Based on the coupling analysis between error parameters, an identifiability index for evaluating the error model is proposed. Taking a 3PRS parallel manipulator as an example, three error models with different values of identifiability index are given. With the same parameter identification, measurement, and compensation method, the computer simulations and prototype experiments of the kinematic calibration with each error model are performed. The simulation and experiment results show that the kinematic calibration using the error model with a bigger value of identifiability index can lead to a better accuracy of the manipulator. Then, an approach of error modeling is proposed to obtain a bigger value of identifiability index. The study of this article is useful for error modeling in kinematic calibration of other parallel manipulators.

  12. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-12-01

    A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.

  13. Interferometric GPS Attitude: A Stochastic Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-02-01

    i’attitude SPG ainsi que les erreurs d’attitude observdes durant ressai en mer. II caracterise ces erreurs come 6tant des procedures stochastiques. ..-’II...the multipath error, which changes with satellite geometry. The satellites, in 12 hour orbits , move through about 33 degrees in 4,000 seconds, which

  14. An individual differences approach to multiple-target visual search errors: How search errors relate to different characteristics of attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamo, Stephen H; Cain, Matthew S; Mitroff, Stephen R

    2017-12-01

    A persistent problem in visual search is that searchers are more likely to miss a target if they have already found another in the same display. This phenomenon, the Subsequent Search Miss (SSM) effect, has remained despite being a known issue for decades. Increasingly, evidence supports a resource depletion account of SSM errors-a previously detected target consumes attentional resources leaving fewer resources available for the processing of a second target. However, "attention" is broadly defined and is composed of many different characteristics, leaving considerable uncertainty about how attention affects second-target detection. The goal of the current study was to identify which attentional characteristics (i.e., selection, limited capacity, modulation, and vigilance) related to second-target misses. The current study compared second-target misses to an attentional blink task and a vigilance task, which both have established measures that were used to operationally define each of four attentional characteristics. Second-target misses in the multiple-target search were correlated with (1) a measure of the time it took for the second target to recovery from the blink in the attentional blink task (i.e., modulation), and (2) target sensitivity (d') in the vigilance task (i.e., vigilance). Participants with longer recovery and poorer vigilance had more second-target misses in the multiple-target visual search task. The results add further support to a resource depletion account of SSM errors and highlight that worse modulation and poor vigilance reflect a deficit in attentional resources that can account for SSM errors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Dual Numbers Approach in Multiaxis Machines Error Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Hrdina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxis machines error modeling is set in the context of modern differential geometry and linear algebra. We apply special classes of matrices over dual numbers and propose a generalization of such concept by means of general Weil algebras. We show that the classification of the geometric errors follows directly from the algebraic properties of the matrices over dual numbers and thus the calculus over the dual numbers is the proper tool for the methodology of multiaxis machines error modeling.

  16. Getting satisfied with "satisfaction of search": How to measure errors during multiple-target visual search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, Adam T

    2017-07-01

    Visual search studies are common in cognitive psychology, and the results generally focus upon accuracy, response times, or both. Most research has focused upon search scenarios where no more than 1 target will be present for any single trial. However, if multiple targets can be present on a single trial, it introduces an additional source of error because the found target can interfere with subsequent search performance. These errors have been studied thoroughly in radiology for decades, although their emphasis in cognitive psychology studies has been more recent. One particular issue with multiple-target search is that these subsequent search errors (i.e., specific errors which occur following a found target) are measured differently by different studies. There is currently no guidance as to which measurement method is best or what impact different measurement methods could have upon various results and conclusions. The current investigation provides two efforts to address these issues. First, the existing literature is reviewed to clarify the appropriate scenarios where subsequent search errors could be observed. Second, several different measurement methods are used with several existing datasets to contrast and compare how each method would have affected the results and conclusions of those studies. The evidence is then used to provide appropriate guidelines for measuring multiple-target search errors in future studies.

  17. Multiple Linear Regressions by Maximizing the Likelihood under Assumption of Generalized Gauss-Laplace Distribution of the Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäntschi, Lorentz; Bálint, Donatella; Bolboacă, Sorana D

    2016-01-01

    Multiple linear regression analysis is widely used to link an outcome with predictors for better understanding of the behaviour of the outcome of interest. Usually, under the assumption that the errors follow a normal distribution, the coefficients of the model are estimated by minimizing the sum of squared deviations. A new approach based on maximum likelihood estimation is proposed for finding the coefficients on linear models with two predictors without any constrictive assumptions on the distribution of the errors. The algorithm was developed, implemented, and tested as proof-of-concept using fourteen sets of compounds by investigating the link between activity/property (as outcome) and structural feature information incorporated by molecular descriptors (as predictors). The results on real data demonstrated that in all investigated cases the power of the error is significantly different by the convenient value of two when the Gauss-Laplace distribution was used to relax the constrictive assumption of the normal distribution of the error. Therefore, the Gauss-Laplace distribution of the error could not be rejected while the hypothesis that the power of the error from Gauss-Laplace distribution is normal distributed also failed to be rejected.

  18. Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.

    1985-01-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  19. Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casasent, D; Ghosh, A

    1985-06-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  20. NASA Model of "Threat and Error" in Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Patterns of Error Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Edward; Pham-Hung, Eric; Nosikova, Yaroslavna; Halvorsen, Fredrik; Gritti, Michael; Schwartz, Steven; Caldarone, Christopher A; Van Arsdell, Glen

    2017-04-01

    We introduced the National Aeronautics and Space Association threat-and-error model to our surgical unit. All admissions are considered flights, which should pass through stepwise deescalations in risk during surgical recovery. We hypothesized that errors significantly influence risk deescalation and contribute to poor outcomes. Patient flights (524) were tracked in real time for threats, errors, and unintended states by full-time performance personnel. Expected risk deescalation was wean from mechanical support, sternal closure, extubation, intensive care unit (ICU) discharge, and discharge home. Data were accrued from clinical charts, bedside data, reporting mechanisms, and staff interviews. Infographics of flights were openly discussed weekly for consensus. In 12% (64 of 524) of flights, the child failed to deescalate sequentially through expected risk levels; unintended increments instead occurred. Failed deescalations were highly associated with errors (426; 257 flights; p associated with a 29% rate of failed deescalation versus 4% in flights with no consequential error (p < 0.0001). The most dangerous errors were apical errors typically (84%) occurring in the operating room, which caused chains of propagating unintended states (n = 110): these had a 43% (47 of 110) rate of failed deescalation (versus 4%; p < 0.0001). Chains of unintended state were often (46%) amplified by additional (up to 7) errors in the ICU that would worsen clinical deviation. Overall, failed deescalations in risk were extremely closely linked to brain injury (n = 13; p < 0.0001) or death (n = 7; p < 0.0001). Deaths and brain injury after pediatric cardiac surgery almost always occur from propagating error chains that originate in the operating room and are often amplified by additional ICU errors. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Improved modeling of multivariate measurement errors based on the Wishart distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentzell, Peter D; Cleary, Cody S; Kompany-Zareh, M

    2017-03-22

    The error covariance matrix (ECM) is an important tool for characterizing the errors from multivariate measurements, representing both the variance and covariance in the errors across multiple channels. Such information is useful in understanding and minimizing sources of experimental error and in the selection of optimal data analysis procedures. Experimental ECMs, normally obtained through replication, are inherently noisy, inconvenient to obtain, and offer limited interpretability. Significant advantages can be realized by building a model for the ECM based on established error types. Such models are less noisy, reduce the need for replication, mitigate mathematical complications such as matrix singularity, and provide greater insights. While the fitting of ECM models using least squares has been previously proposed, the present work establishes that fitting based on the Wishart distribution offers a much better approach. Simulation studies show that the Wishart method results in parameter estimates with a smaller variance and also facilitates the statistical testing of alternative models using a parameterized bootstrap method. The new approach is applied to fluorescence emission data to establish the acceptability of various models containing error terms related to offset, multiplicative offset, shot noise and uniform independent noise. The implications of the number of replicates, as well as single vs. multiple replicate sets are also described. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Managing errors in radiology: a working model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melvin, C.; Bodley, R.; Booth, A.; Meagher, T.; Record, C.; Savage, P.

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To develop a practical mechanism for reviewing reporting discrepancies as addressed in the Royal College of Radiologists publication 'To err is human. The case for review of reporting discrepancies'. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A regular meeting was developed, and has evolved, within the department to review discrepancies. Standard forms were devised for submission of cases as well as recording and classification of discrepancies. This has resulted in availability of figures that can be audited annually. RESULTS: Eighty-one cases involving error were reviewed over a 12-month period. Seven further cases flagged as discrepancies were not identified on peer review. Twenty-four reports were amended subsequent to the meeting. Nineteen additional cases were brought to the meeting as illustrative of teaching points or for discussion. CONCLUSION: We have evolved a successful process of reviewing reporting errors, which enjoys the confidence and support of all clinical radiologists, and is perceived as a method of improving patient care through an increasing awareness of lapses in performance

  3. The error model and experiment of measuring angular position error based on laser collimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yangyang; Yang, Jing; Li, Jiakun; Feng, Qibo

    2018-01-01

    Rotary axis is the reference component of rotation motion. Angular position error is the most critical factor which impair the machining precision among the six degree-of-freedom (DOF) geometric errors of rotary axis. In this paper, the measuring method of angular position error of rotary axis based on laser collimation is thoroughly researched, the error model is established and 360 ° full range measurement is realized by using the high precision servo turntable. The change of space attitude of each moving part is described accurately by the 3×3 transformation matrices and the influences of various factors on the measurement results is analyzed in detail. Experiments results show that the measurement method can achieve high measurement accuracy and large measurement range.

  4. A Conceptual Framework for Error Remediation with Multiple External Representations Applied to Learning Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Maici Duarte; Marczal, Diego; Pimentel, Andrey Ricardo; Direne, Alexandre Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the application of some concepts of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) to elaborate a conceptual framework that uses the remediation of errors with Multiple External Representations (MERs) in Learning Objects (LO). To this is demonstrated a development of LO for teaching the Pythagorean Theorem through this framework. This…

  5. Error Types in the Approximate System of Arab Students of English: A Multiple Classificatory Taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Btoosh, Mousa A.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims at providing a comprehensive account of the types of errors produced by Arab students of English as a second language based on a multiple classificatory taxonomy developed for this purpose. The corpus providing the database for the study consists of three parts: (i) short tape-recorded interviews, (ii) translated sentences and…

  6. Minimum Symbol Error Rate Detection in Single-Input Multiple-Output Channels with Markov Noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars P.B.

    2005-01-01

    Minimum symbol error rate detection in Single-Input Multiple- Output(SIMO) channels with Markov noise is presented. The special case of zero-mean Gauss-Markov noise is examined closer as it only requires knowledge of the second-order moments. In this special case, it is shown that optimal detection...

  7. Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

    2015-01-01

    Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

  8. Empirical study of the GARCH model with rational errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it to stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform Bayesian inference to the model. Bayesian inference is implemented by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive multi-dimensional Student's t-proposal density. In order to compare our model with the GARCH model with the standard normal errors, we calculate the information criteria AIC and DIC, and find that both criteria favor the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. We also calculate the accuracy of the volatility by using the realized volatility and find that a good accuracy is obtained for the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. Thus we conclude that the GARCH model with a rational error distribution is superior to the GARCH model with the normal errors and it can be used as an alternative GARCH model to those with other fat-tailed distributions

  9. Deconvolution Estimation in Measurement Error Models: The R Package decon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Feng; Wang, Bin

    2011-01-01

    Data from many scientific areas often come with measurement error. Density or distribution function estimation from contaminated data and nonparametric regression with errors-in-variables are two important topics in measurement error models. In this paper, we present a new software package decon for R, which contains a collection of functions that use the deconvolution kernel methods to deal with the measurement error problems. The functions allow the errors to be either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. To make the deconvolution estimators computationally more efficient in R, we adapt the fast Fourier transform algorithm for density estimation with error-free data to the deconvolution kernel estimation. We discuss the practical selection of the smoothing parameter in deconvolution methods and illustrate the use of the package through both simulated and real examples. PMID:21614139

  10. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  11. Which forcing data errors matter most when modeling seasonal snowpacks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    High quality forcing data are critical when modeling seasonal snowpacks and snowmelt, but their quality is often compromised due to measurement errors or deficiencies in gridded data products (e.g., spatio-temporal interpolation, empirical parameterizations, or numerical weather model outputs). To assess the relative impact of errors in different meteorological forcings, many studies have conducted sensitivity analyses where errors (e.g., bias) are imposed on one forcing at a time and changes in model output are compared. Although straightforward, this approach only considers simplistic error structures and cannot quantify interactions in different meteorological forcing errors (i.e., it assumes a linear system). Here we employ the Sobol' method of global sensitivity analysis, which allows us to test how co-existing errors in six meteorological forcings (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation) impact specific modeled snow variables (i.e., peak snow water equivalent, snowmelt rates, and snow disappearance timing). Using the Sobol' framework across a large number of realizations (>100000 simulations annually at each site), we test how (1) the type (e.g., bias vs. random errors), (2) distribution (e.g., uniform vs. normal), and (3) magnitude (e.g., instrument uncertainty vs. field uncertainty) of forcing errors impact key outputs from a physically based snow model (the Utah Energy Balance). We also assess the role of climate by conducting the analysis at sites in maritime, intermountain, continental, and tundra snow zones. For all outputs considered, results show that (1) biases in forcing data are more important than random errors, (2) the choice of error distribution can enhance the importance of specific forcings, and (3) the level of uncertainty considered dictates the relative importance of forcings. While the relative importance of forcings varied with snow variable and climate, the results broadly

  12. Spatial Linear Mixed Models with Covariate Measurement Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Tang, Haicheng; Lin, Xihong

    2009-01-01

    Spatial data with covariate measurement errors have been commonly observed in public health studies. Existing work mainly concentrates on parameter estimation using Gibbs sampling, and no work has been conducted to understand and quantify the theoretical impact of ignoring measurement error on spatial data analysis in the form of the asymptotic biases in regression coefficients and variance components when measurement error is ignored. Plausible implementations, from frequentist perspectives, of maximum likelihood estimation in spatial covariate measurement error models are also elusive. In this paper, we propose a new class of linear mixed models for spatial data in the presence of covariate measurement errors. We show that the naive estimators of the regression coefficients are attenuated while the naive estimators of the variance components are inflated, if measurement error is ignored. We further develop a structural modeling approach to obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator by accounting for the measurement error. We study the large sample properties of the proposed maximum likelihood estimator, and propose an EM algorithm to draw inference. All the asymptotic properties are shown under the increasing-domain asymptotic framework. We illustrate the method by analyzing the Scottish lip cancer data, and evaluate its performance through a simulation study, all of which elucidate the importance of adjusting for covariate measurement errors.

  13. Learning (from) the errors of a systems biology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Benjamin; Frőhlich, Holger; Kschischo, Maik

    2016-02-11

    Mathematical modelling is a labour intensive process involving several iterations of testing on real data and manual model modifications. In biology, the domain knowledge guiding model development is in many cases itself incomplete and uncertain. A major problem in this context is that biological systems are open. Missed or unknown external influences as well as erroneous interactions in the model could thus lead to severely misleading results. Here we introduce the dynamic elastic-net, a data driven mathematical method which automatically detects such model errors in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. We demonstrate for real and simulated data, how the dynamic elastic-net approach can be used to automatically (i) reconstruct the error signal, (ii) identify the target variables of model error, and (iii) reconstruct the true system state even for incomplete or preliminary models. Our work provides a systematic computational method facilitating modelling of open biological systems under uncertain knowledge.

  14. Mirrors, mirrors on the wall…the ubiquitous multiple reflection error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    Participants decided when somebody, Janine, could see their face in a horizontal row of adjacent mirrors mounted flat on the same wall. They saw real mirrors and a shop-dummy representing Janine. Such coplanar mirrors reflect different, non-overlapping areas of a scene. However, almost everybody made an unexpected error: they claimed that Janine would see her face reflected in multiple mirrors simultaneously. They therefore responded as if each mirror showed similar information and thus grossly overestimated how much each mirror revealed. Further studies established that this multiple reflection error also occurred for vertical rows of mirrors and for different areas of a single, large mirror. The error was even common if the participant themselves sat in front of a set of covered-up mirrors and indicated where they would be able to see their own reflection. In the latter case, people often made multiple reflection errors despite having seen all the mirrors uncovered immediately before they responded. People's gross overestimation of how much of a scene a mirror reflects and their inability to learn to correct this false belief explains why, despite a lifetime's experience of mirrors, they incorrectly think they will see themselves in all nearby mirrors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in additive manufacturing medical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Jose Miguel; Arrieta, Cristobal; Andia, Marcelo E; Uribe, Sergio; Ramos-Grez, Jorge; Vargas, Alex; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Tejos, Cristian

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) models are used in medical applications for surgical planning, prosthesis design and teaching. For these applications, the accuracy of the AM models is essential. Unfortunately, this accuracy is compromised due to errors introduced by each of the building steps: image acquisition, segmentation, triangulation, printing and infiltration. However, the contribution of each step to the final error remains unclear. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing errors obtained from a reference with those obtained modifying parameters of each building step. Our analysis considered global indexes to evaluate the overall error, and local indexes to show how this error is distributed along the surface of the AM models. Our results show that the standard building process tends to overestimate the AM models, i.e. models are larger than the original structures. They also show that the triangulation resolution and the segmentation threshold are critical factors, and that the errors are concentrated at regions with high curvatures. Errors could be reduced choosing better triangulation and printing resolutions, but there is an important need for modifying some of the standard building processes, particularly the segmentation algorithms. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Error, power, and cluster separation rates of pairwise multiple testing procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Juliet Popper; Kowalchuk, Rhonda K; Keselman, H J

    2013-09-01

    In comparing multiple treatments, 2 error rates that have been studied extensively are the familywise and false discovery rates. Different methods are used to control each of these rates. Yet, it is rare to find studies that compare the same methods on both of these rates, and also on the per-family error rate, the expected number of false rejections. Although the per-family error rate and the familywise error rate are similar in most applications when the latter is controlled at a conventional low level (e.g., .05), the 2 measures can diverge considerably with methods that control the false discovery rate at that same level. Furthermore, we shall consider both rejections of true hypotheses (Type I errors) and rejections of false hypotheses where the observed outcomes are in the incorrect direction (Type III errors). We point out that power estimates based on the number of correct rejections do not consider the pattern of those rejections, which is important in interpreting the total outcome. The present study introduces measures of interpretability based on the pattern of separation of treatments into nonoverlapping sets and compares methods on these measures. In general, range-based (configural) methods are more likely to obtain interpretable patterns based on treatment separation than individual p-value-based measures. Recommendations for practice based on these results are given in the article. Although the article is complex, these recommendations can be understood without the necessity for detailed perusal of the supporting material.

  17. A Model of Self-Monitoring Blood Glucose Measurement Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettoretti, Martina; Facchinetti, Andrea; Sparacino, Giovanni; Cobelli, Claudio

    2017-07-01

    A reliable model of the probability density function (PDF) of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) measurement error would be important for several applications in diabetes, like testing in silico insulin therapies. In the literature, the PDF of SMBG error is usually described by a Gaussian function, whose symmetry and simplicity are unable to properly describe the variability of experimental data. Here, we propose a new methodology to derive more realistic models of SMBG error PDF. The blood glucose range is divided into zones where error (absolute or relative) presents a constant standard deviation (SD). In each zone, a suitable PDF model is fitted by maximum-likelihood to experimental data. Model validation is performed by goodness-of-fit tests. The method is tested on two databases collected by the One Touch Ultra 2 (OTU2; Lifescan Inc, Milpitas, CA) and the Bayer Contour Next USB (BCN; Bayer HealthCare LLC, Diabetes Care, Whippany, NJ). In both cases, skew-normal and exponential models are used to describe the distribution of errors and outliers, respectively. Two zones were identified: zone 1 with constant SD absolute error; zone 2 with constant SD relative error. Goodness-of-fit tests confirmed that identified PDF models are valid and superior to Gaussian models used so far in the literature. The proposed methodology allows to derive realistic models of SMBG error PDF. These models can be used in several investigations of present interest in the scientific community, for example, to perform in silico clinical trials to compare SMBG-based with nonadjunctive CGM-based insulin treatments.

  18. Error and Uncertainty Analysis for Ecological Modeling and Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gertner, George

    1998-01-01

    The main objectives of this project are a) to develop a general methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and building error budgets in simulation modeling over space and time; and b...

  19. Efficiency in Linear Model with AR (1) and Correlated Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    Assumptions in the classical normal linear regression model include that of lack of autocorrelation of the error terms ... which the classical linear regression model is based will usually be violated. These violations, seen in widespread .... we conclude in section 5. The Model. We assume a simple linear regression model:.

  20. Error Characterization of Multiple Sensor Soil Moisture Data for Improved Long-Term Global Soil Moisture Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorigo, Wouter; Scipal, Klaus; de Jeu, Richard; Parinussa, Robert; Wagner, Wolfgang; Naeimi, Vahid

    2009-11-01

    In the framework of the Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy (WACMOS) project of ESA, a first multi-decadal (30+ years) global soil moisture record is generated by merging data sets from various active and passive microwave sensors. Combining multiple data sets brings many advantages in terms of enhanced temporal and spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Nevertheless, to benefit from this strategy, error budgets of the individual data sets have to be well characterized, and apt strategies for reducing the errors in the final product need to be developed.This study exploits the triple collocation error estimation technique to assess the error and systematic biases between three different independent soil moisture data sets: soil moisture data derived from the AMSR-E radiometer, scatterometer based estimates from MetOp- ASCAT, and modelled soil moisture from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis program. The results suggest that the method provides realistic error estimates and allow us to identify systematic differences between the active and passive microwave derived soil moisture products, e.g. with respect to varying land cover or climatological zones. This in turn will help us in developing adequate strategies for merging active and passive observations for the generation of an accurate long-term soil moisture data set.

  1. Errors in the estimation of the variance: implications for multiple-probability fluctuation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saviane, Chiara; Silver, R Angus

    2006-06-15

    Synapses play a crucial role in information processing in the brain. Amplitude fluctuations of synaptic responses can be used to extract information about the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission and its modulation. In particular, multiple-probability fluctuation analysis can be used to estimate the number of functional release sites, the mean probability of release and the amplitude of the mean quantal response from fits of the relationship between the variance and mean amplitude of postsynaptic responses, recorded at different probabilities. To determine these quantal parameters, calculate their uncertainties and the goodness-of-fit of the model, it is important to weight the contribution of each data point in the fitting procedure. We therefore investigated the errors associated with measuring the variance by determining the best estimators of the variance of the variance and have used simulations of synaptic transmission to test their accuracy and reliability under different experimental conditions. For central synapses, which generally have a low number of release sites, the amplitude distribution of synaptic responses is not normal, thus the use of a theoretical variance of the variance based on the normal assumption is not a good approximation. However, appropriate estimators can be derived for the population and for limited sample sizes using a more general expression that involves higher moments and introducing unbiased estimators based on the h-statistics. Our results are likely to be relevant for various applications of fluctuation analysis when few channels or release sites are present.

  2. How well can we forecast future model error and uncertainty by mining past model performance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomatine, Dimitri

    2016-04-01

    ) method by Koenker and Basset in which linear regression is used to build predictive models for distribution quantiles [1] (b) the UNEEC method [2,3,7] which takes into account the input variables influencing such uncertainty and uses more advanced machine learning (non-linear) methods (e.g. neural networks or k-NN method) (c) the recent DUBRAE method (Dynamic Uncertainty Model By Regression on Absolute Error), a autoregressive model of model residuals which first corrects the model residual and then employs an autoregressive statistical model for uncertainty prediction) [5] 2. The data uncertainty (parametric and/or input) - in this case we study the propagation of uncertainty (presented typically probabilistically) from parameters or inputs to the model outputs. For real complex non-linear functions (models) implemented in software various versions of the Monte Carlo simulation are used: values of parameters or inputs are sampled from the assumed distributions and the model is run multiple times to generate multiple outputs. The data generated by Monte Carlo analysis can be used to build a machine learning model which will be able to make predictions of model uncertainty for the future his method is named MLUE (Machine Learning for Uncertainty Estimation) and is covered in [4,6]. 3. Structural uncertainty stemming from inadequate model structure. The paper discusses the possibilities and experiences of building the models able to forecast (rather than analyse) residual and parametric uncertainty of hydrological models. References [1] Koenker, R., and G. Bassett (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33- 50, doi:10.2307/1913643. [2] D.L. Shrestha, D.P. Solomatine (2006). Machine learning approaches for estimation of prediction interval for the model output. Neural Networks J., 19(2), 225-235. [3] D.P. Solomatine, D.L. Shrestha (2009). A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques. Water Resources Res. 45, W00B11. [4] D. L

  3. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one...... "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliabil-ity of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity mod-els have been explored...... in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model fea-tures relevant to sea level modeling...

  4. Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2003-01-01

    It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between

  5. Evaluation of Two Methods for Modeling Measurement Errors When Testing Interaction Effects with Observed Composite Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Yu-Yu; Kwok, Oi-Man; Lai, Mark H. C.

    2018-01-01

    Path models with observed composites based on multiple items (e.g., mean or sum score of the items) are commonly used to test interaction effects. Under this practice, researchers generally assume that the observed composites are measured without errors. In this study, we reviewed and evaluated two alternative methods within the structural…

  6. Modeling of Bit Error Rate in Cascaded 2R Regenerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öhman, Filip; Mørk, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments and the rege......This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments...

  7. Effect Of Oceanic Lithosphere Age Errors On Model Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLaughter, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The thermal structure of the oceanic lithosphere is the subject of a long-standing controversy. Because the thermal structure varies with age, it governs properties such as heat flow, density, and bathymetry with important implications for plate tectonics. Though bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow for young (appears to be shallower than expected for older lithosphere indicating a plate model is a better fit. It is therefore useful to jointly fit bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow data to an inverse model to determine lithospheric structure details. Though inverse models usually include the effect of errors in bathymetry, heat flow, and geoid, they rarely examine the effects of errors in age. This may have the effect of introducing subtle biases into inverse models of the oceanic lithosphere. Because the inverse problem for thermal structure is both ill-posed and ill-conditioned, these overlooked errors may have a greater effect than expected. The problem is further complicated by the non-uniform distribution of age and errors in age estimates; for example, only 30% of the oceanic lithosphere is older than 80 MY and less than 3% is older than 150 MY. To determine the potential strength of such biases, I have used the age and error maps of Mueller et al (2008) to forward model the bathymetry for half space and GDH1 plate models. For ages less than 20 MY, both models give similar results. The errors induced by uncertainty in age are relatively large and suggest that when possible young lithosphere should be excluded when examining the lithospheric thermal model. As expected, GDH1 bathymetry converges asymptotically on the theoretical result for error-free data for older data. The resulting uncertainty is nearly as large as that introduced by errors in the other parameters; in the absence of other errors, the models can only be distinguished for ages greater than 80 MY. These results suggest that the problem should be approached with the minimum possible number of

  8. Multiple model adaptive control with mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Matthew

    Despite the remarkable theoretical accomplishments and successful applications of adaptive control, the field is not sufficiently mature to solve challenging control problems requiring strict performance and safety guarantees. Towards addressing these issues, a novel deterministic multiple-model adaptive control approach called adaptive mixing control is proposed. In this approach, adaptation comes from a high-level system called the supervisor that mixes into feedback a number of candidate controllers, each finely-tuned to a subset of the parameter space. The mixing signal, the supervisor's output, is generated by estimating the unknown parameters and, at every instant of time, calculating the contribution level of each candidate controller based on certainty equivalence. The proposed architecture provides two characteristics relevant to solving stringent, performance-driven applications. First, the full-suite of linear time invariant control tools is available. A disadvantage of conventional adaptive control is its restriction to utilizing only those control laws whose solutions can be feasibly computed in real-time, such as model reference and pole-placement type controllers. Because its candidate controllers are computed off line, the proposed approach suffers no such restriction. Second, the supervisor's output is smooth and does not necessarily depend on explicit a priori knowledge of the disturbance model. These characteristics can lead to improved performance by avoiding the unnecessary switching and chattering behaviors associated with some other multiple adaptive control approaches. The stability and robustness properties of the adaptive scheme are analyzed. It is shown that the mean-square regulation error is of the order of the modeling error. And when the parameter estimate converges to its true value, which is guaranteed if a persistence of excitation condition is satisfied, the adaptive closed-loop system converges exponentially fast to a closed

  9. National Aeronautics and Space Administration "threat and error" model applied to pediatric cardiac surgery: error cycles precede ∼85% of patient deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Edward J; Nosikova, Yaroslavna; Pham-Hung, Eric; Gritti, Michael; Schwartz, Steven; Caldarone, Christopher A; Redington, Andrew; Van Arsdell, Glen S

    2015-02-01

    We hypothesized that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration "threat and error" model (which is derived from analyzing >30,000 commercial flights, and explains >90% of crashes) is directly applicable to pediatric cardiac surgery. We implemented a unit-wide performance initiative, whereby every surgical admission constitutes a "flight" and is tracked in real time, with the aim of identifying errors. The first 500 consecutive patients (524 flights) were analyzed, with an emphasis on the relationship between error cycles and permanent harmful outcomes. Among 524 patient flights (risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery category: 1-6; median: 2) 68 (13%) involved residual hemodynamic lesions, 13 (2.5%) permanent end-organ injuries, and 7 deaths (1.3%). Preoperatively, 763 threats were identified in 379 (72%) flights. Only 51% of patient flights (267) were error free. In the remaining 257 flights, 430 errors occurred, most commonly related to proficiency (280; 65%) or judgment (69, 16%). In most flights with errors (173 of 257; 67%), an unintended clinical state resulted, ie, the error was consequential. In 60% of consequential errors (n = 110; 21% of total), subsequent cycles of additional error/unintended states occurred. Cycles, particularly those containing multiple errors, were very significantly associated with permanent harmful end-states, including residual hemodynamic lesions (P < .0001), end-organ injury (P < .0001), and death (P < .0001). Deaths were almost always preceded by cycles (6 of 7; P < .0001). Human error, if not mitigated, often leads to cycles of error and unintended patient states, which are dangerous and precede the majority of harmful outcomes. Efforts to manage threats and error cycles (through crew resource management techniques) are likely to yield large increases in patient safety. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. The Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Errors in Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three levels of sensitivity, herein termed sensitivity, ratings, were established, namely: Highly Sensitive (Rating:1); Moderately sensitive' (Rating:2); and 'not too sensitive'(Rating: 3). The ratings were based on the amount of error in the measured parameter to introduce + 10% relative error in the predicted Et. The level of ...

  11. GMM estimation in panel data models with measurement error

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T.J.

    Griliches and Hausman (J. Econom. 32 (1986) 93) have introduced GMM estimation in panel data models with measurement error. We present a simple, systematic approach to derive moment conditions for such models under a variety of assumptions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

  12. Three-Phase Text Error Correction Model for Korean SMS Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Jeunghyun; Park, So-Young; Lee, Seung-Wook; Rim, Hae-Chang

    In this paper, we propose a three-phase text error correction model consisting of a word spacing error correction phase, a syllable-based spelling error correction phase, and a word-based spelling error correction phase. In order to reduce the text error correction complexity, the proposed model corrects text errors step by step. With the aim of correcting word spacing errors, spelling errors, and mixed errors in SMS messages, the proposed model tries to separately manage the word spacing error correction phase and the spelling error correction phase. For the purpose of utilizing both the syllable-based approach covering various errors and the word-based approach correcting some specific errors accurately, the proposed model subdivides the spelling error correction phase into the syllable-based phase and the word-based phase. Experimental results show that the proposed model can improve the performance by solving the text error correction problem based on the divide-and-conquer strategy.

  13. Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

  14. Validation of the measurement model concept for error structure identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pavan K.; Orazem, Mark E.; Crisalle, Oscar D.

    2004-01-01

    The development of different forms of measurement models for impedance has allowed examination of key assumptions on which the use of such models to assess error structure are based. The stochastic error structures obtained using the transfer-function and Voigt measurement models were identical, even when non-stationary phenomena caused some of the data to be inconsistent with the Kramers-Kronig relations. The suitability of the measurement model for assessment of consistency with the Kramers-Kronig relations, however, was found to be more sensitive to the confidence interval for the parameter estimates than to the number of parameters in the model. A tighter confidence interval was obtained for Voigt measurement model, which made the Voigt measurement model a more sensitive tool for identification of inconsistencies with the Kramers-Kronig relations

  15. Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

    2016-11-01

    In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

  16. Probabilistic modeling of systematic errors in two-hybrid experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sontag, David; Singh, Rohit; Berger, Bonnie

    2007-01-01

    We describe a novel probabilistic approach to estimating errors in two-hybrid (2H) experiments. Such experiments are frequently used to elucidate protein-protein interaction networks in a high-throughput fashion; however, a significant challenge with these is their relatively high error rate, specifically, a high false-positive rate. We describe a comprehensive error model for 2H data, accounting for both random and systematic errors. The latter arise from limitations of the 2H experimental protocol: in theory, the reporting mechanism of a 2H experiment should be activated if and only if the two proteins being tested truly interact; in practice, even in the absence of a true interaction, it may be activated by some proteins - either by themselves or through promiscuous interaction with other proteins. We describe a probabilistic relational model that explicitly models the above phenomenon and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to compute both the probability of an observed 2H interaction being true as well as the probability of individual proteins being self-activating/promiscuous. This is the first approach that explicitly models systematic errors in protein-protein interaction data; in contrast, previous work on this topic has modeled errors as being independent and random. By explicitly modeling the sources of noise in 2H systems, we find that we are better able to make use of the available experimental data. In comparison with Bader et al.'s method for estimating confidence in 2H predicted interactions, the proposed method performed 5-10% better overall, and in particular regimes improved prediction accuracy by as much as 76%. http://theory.csail.mit.edu/probmod2H

  17. A New Open-Loop Fiber Optic Gyro Error Compensation Method Based on Angular Velocity Error Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yanshun; Guo, Yajing; Li, Chunyu; Wang, Yixin; Wang, Zhanqing

    2015-01-01

    With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG) model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage  and temperature  as the input variables and angular velocity error  as the output variable. Firstly, the angular ve...

  18. Measurement Rounding Errors in an Assessment Model of Project Led Engineering Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Moreira

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the rounding errors that occur in the assessment of an interdisciplinary Project-Led Education (PLE process implemented in the Integrated Master degree on Industrial Management and Engineering (IME at University of Minho. PLE is an innovative educational methodology which makes use of active learning, promoting higher levels of motivation and students’ autonomy. The assessment model is based on multiple evaluation components with different weights. Each component can be evaluated by several teachers involved in different Project Supporting Courses (PSC. This model can be affected by different types of errors, namely: (1 rounding errors, and (2 non-uniform criteria of rounding the grades. A rigorous analysis of the assessment model was made and the rounding errors involved on each project component were characterized and measured. This resulted in a global maximum error of 0.308 on the individual student project grade, in a 0 to 100 scale. This analysis intended to improve not only the reliability of the assessment results, but also teachers’ awareness of this problem. Recommendations are also made in order to improve the assessment model and reduce the rounding errors as much as possible.

  19. Multiple Linear Regression for Reconstruction of Gene Regulatory Networks in Solving Cascade Error Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, Faridah Hani Mohamed; Zainudin, Suhaila; Arif, Shereena M

    2017-01-01

    Gene regulatory network (GRN) reconstruction is the process of identifying regulatory gene interactions from experimental data through computational analysis. One of the main reasons for the reduced performance of previous GRN methods had been inaccurate prediction of cascade motifs. Cascade error is defined as the wrong prediction of cascade motifs, where an indirect interaction is misinterpreted as a direct interaction. Despite the active research on various GRN prediction methods, the discussion on specific methods to solve problems related to cascade errors is still lacking. In fact, the experiments conducted by the past studies were not specifically geared towards proving the ability of GRN prediction methods in avoiding the occurrences of cascade errors. Hence, this research aims to propose Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to infer GRN from gene expression data and to avoid wrongly inferring of an indirect interaction (A → B → C) as a direct interaction (A → C). Since the number of observations of the real experiment datasets was far less than the number of predictors, some predictors were eliminated by extracting the random subnetworks from global interaction networks via an established extraction method. In addition, the experiment was extended to assess the effectiveness of MLR in dealing with cascade error by using a novel experimental procedure that had been proposed in this work. The experiment revealed that the number of cascade errors had been very minimal. Apart from that, the Belsley collinearity test proved that multicollinearity did affect the datasets used in this experiment greatly. All the tested subnetworks obtained satisfactory results, with AUROC values above 0.5.

  20. Multiple Linear Regression for Reconstruction of Gene Regulatory Networks in Solving Cascade Error Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faridah Hani Mohamed Salleh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gene regulatory network (GRN reconstruction is the process of identifying regulatory gene interactions from experimental data through computational analysis. One of the main reasons for the reduced performance of previous GRN methods had been inaccurate prediction of cascade motifs. Cascade error is defined as the wrong prediction of cascade motifs, where an indirect interaction is misinterpreted as a direct interaction. Despite the active research on various GRN prediction methods, the discussion on specific methods to solve problems related to cascade errors is still lacking. In fact, the experiments conducted by the past studies were not specifically geared towards proving the ability of GRN prediction methods in avoiding the occurrences of cascade errors. Hence, this research aims to propose Multiple Linear Regression (MLR to infer GRN from gene expression data and to avoid wrongly inferring of an indirect interaction (A → B → C as a direct interaction (A → C. Since the number of observations of the real experiment datasets was far less than the number of predictors, some predictors were eliminated by extracting the random subnetworks from global interaction networks via an established extraction method. In addition, the experiment was extended to assess the effectiveness of MLR in dealing with cascade error by using a novel experimental procedure that had been proposed in this work. The experiment revealed that the number of cascade errors had been very minimal. Apart from that, the Belsley collinearity test proved that multicollinearity did affect the datasets used in this experiment greatly. All the tested subnetworks obtained satisfactory results, with AUROC values above 0.5.

  1. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders

    In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linea...... symmetric non-linear error correction are considered. A simulation study shows that the finite sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....... for linearity is of particular interest as parameters of non-linear components vanish under the null. To solve the latter type of testing, we use the so-called sup tests, which here requires development of new (uniform) weak convergence results. These results are potentially useful in general for analysis......In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...

  2. Prediction Errors of Molecular Machine Learning Models Lower than Hybrid DFT Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Felix A; Hutchison, Luke; Huang, Bing; Gilmer, Justin; Schoenholz, Samuel S; Dahl, George E; Vinyals, Oriol; Kearnes, Steven; Riley, Patrick F; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2017-11-14

    We investigate the impact of choosing regressors and molecular representations for the construction of fast machine learning (ML) models of 13 electronic ground-state properties of organic molecules. The performance of each regressor/representation/property combination is assessed using learning curves which report out-of-sample errors as a function of training set size with up to ∼118k distinct molecules. Molecular structures and properties at the hybrid density functional theory (DFT) level of theory come from the QM9 database [ Ramakrishnan et al. Sci. Data 2014 , 1 , 140022 ] and include enthalpies and free energies of atomization, HOMO/LUMO energies and gap, dipole moment, polarizability, zero point vibrational energy, heat capacity, and the highest fundamental vibrational frequency. Various molecular representations have been studied (Coulomb matrix, bag of bonds, BAML and ECFP4, molecular graphs (MG)), as well as newly developed distribution based variants including histograms of distances (HD), angles (HDA/MARAD), and dihedrals (HDAD). Regressors include linear models (Bayesian ridge regression (BR) and linear regression with elastic net regularization (EN)), random forest (RF), kernel ridge regression (KRR), and two types of neural networks, graph convolutions (GC) and gated graph networks (GG). Out-of sample errors are strongly dependent on the choice of representation and regressor and molecular property. Electronic properties are typically best accounted for by MG and GC, while energetic properties are better described by HDAD and KRR. The specific combinations with the lowest out-of-sample errors in the ∼118k training set size limit are (free) energies and enthalpies of atomization (HDAD/KRR), HOMO/LUMO eigenvalue and gap (MG/GC), dipole moment (MG/GC), static polarizability (MG/GG), zero point vibrational energy (HDAD/KRR), heat capacity at room temperature (HDAD/KRR), and highest fundamental vibrational frequency (BAML/RF). We present numerical

  3. Consistent estimation of linear panel data models with measurement error

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Erik; Spierdijk, Laura; Wansbeek, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Measurement error causes a bias towards zero when estimating a panel data linear regression model. The panel data context offers various opportunities to derive instrumental variables allowing for consistent estimation. We consider three sources of moment conditions: (i) restrictions on the

  4. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  5. Testing for spatial error dependence in probit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amaral, P. V.; Anselin, L.; Arribas-Bel, D.

    2013-01-01

    In this note, we compare three test statistics that have been suggested to assess the presence of spatial error autocorrelation in probit models. We highlight the differences between the tests proposed by Pinkse and Slade (J Econom 85(1):125-254, 1998), Pinkse (Asymptotics of the Moran test and a

  6. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  7. Semiparametric analysis of linear transformation models with covariate measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Samiran; Ma, Yanyuan

    2014-03-01

    We take a semiparametric approach in fitting a linear transformation model to a right censored data when predictive variables are subject to measurement errors. We construct consistent estimating equations when repeated measurements of a surrogate of the unobserved true predictor are available. The proposed approach applies under minimal assumptions on the distributions of the true covariate or the measurement errors. We derive the asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate the characteristics of the estimator in finite sample performance via simulation studies. We apply the method to analyze an AIDS clinical trial data set that motivated the work. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  8. A New Open-Loop Fiber Optic Gyro Error Compensation Method Based on Angular Velocity Error Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanshun Zhang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage  and temperature  as the input variables and angular velocity error  as the output variable. Firstly, the angular velocity error  is extracted from OFOG output signals, and then the output voltage , temperature  and angular velocity error  are used as the learning samples to train a Radial-Basis-Function (RBF neural network model. Then the nonlinear mapping model over T,  and  is established and thus  can be calculated automatically to compensate OFOG errors according to  and . The results of the experiments show that the established model can be used to compensate the nonlinear OFOG errors. The maximum, the minimum and the mean square error of OFOG angular velocity are decreased by ,  and  relative to their initial values, respectively. Compared with the direct modeling of gyro angular velocity, which we researched before, the experimental results of the compensating method proposed in this paper are further reduced by ,  and , respectively, so the performance of this method is better than that of the direct modeling for gyro angular velocity.

  9. A new open-loop fiber optic gyro error compensation method based on angular velocity error modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanshun; Guo, Yajing; Li, Chunyu; Wang, Yixin; Wang, Zhanqing

    2015-02-27

    With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG) model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage u and temperature T as the input variables and angular velocity error Δω as the output variable. Firstly, the angular velocity error Δω is extracted from OFOG output signals, and then the output voltage u, temperature T and angular velocity error Δω are used as the learning samples to train a Radial-Basis-Function (RBF) neural network model. Then the nonlinear mapping model over T, u and Δω is established and thus Δω can be calculated automatically to compensate OFOG errors according to T and u. The results of the experiments show that the established model can be used to compensate the nonlinear OFOG errors. The maximum, the minimum and the mean square error of OFOG angular velocity are decreased by 97.0%, 97.1% and 96.5% relative to their initial values, respectively. Compared with the direct modeling of gyro angular velocity, which we researched before, the experimental results of the compensating method proposed in this paper are further reduced by 1.6%, 1.4% and 1.42%, respectively, so the performance of this method is better than that of the direct modeling for gyro angular velocity.

  10. An Emprical Point Error Model for Tls Derived Point Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozendi, Mustafa; Akca, Devrim; Topan, Hüseyin

    2016-06-01

    The random error pattern of point clouds has significant effect on the quality of final 3D model. The magnitude and distribution of random errors should be modelled numerically. This work aims at developing such an anisotropic point error model, specifically for the terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) acquired 3D point clouds. A priori precisions of basic TLS observations, which are the range, horizontal angle and vertical angle, are determined by predefined and practical measurement configurations, performed at real-world test environments. A priori precision of horizontal (𝜎𝜃) and vertical (𝜎𝛼) angles are constant for each point of a data set, and can directly be determined through the repetitive scanning of the same environment. In our practical tests, precisions of the horizontal and vertical angles were found as 𝜎𝜃=±36.6𝑐𝑐 and 𝜎𝛼=±17.8𝑐𝑐, respectively. On the other hand, a priori precision of the range observation (𝜎𝜌) is assumed to be a function of range, incidence angle of the incoming laser ray, and reflectivity of object surface. Hence, it is a variable, and computed for each point individually by employing an empirically developed formula varying as 𝜎𝜌=±2-12 𝑚𝑚 for a FARO Focus X330 laser scanner. This procedure was followed by the computation of error ellipsoids of each point using the law of variance-covariance propagation. The direction and size of the error ellipsoids were computed by the principal components transformation. The usability and feasibility of the model was investigated in real world scenarios. These investigations validated the suitability and practicality of the proposed method.

  11. Error Modelling and Experimental Validation for a Planar 3-PPR Parallel Manipulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the positioning error of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator is studied with an error model and experimental validation. First, the displacement and workspace are analyzed. An error model considering both configuration errors and joint clearance errors is established. Using this mo...

  12. MODELING OF MANUFACTURING ERRORS FOR PIN-GEAR ELEMENTS OF PLANETARY GEARBOX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan M. Egorov

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical background for calculation of k-h-v type cycloid reducers was developed relatively long ago. However, recently the matters of cycloid reducer design again attracted heightened attention. The reason for that is that such devices are used in many complex engineering systems, particularly, in mechatronic and robotics systems. The development of advanced technological capabilities for manufacturing of such reducers today gives the possibility for implementation of essential features of such devices: high efficiency, high gear ratio, kinematic accuracy and smooth motion. The presence of an adequate mathematical model gives the possibility for adjusting kinematic accuracy of the reducer by rational selection of manufacturing tolerances for its parts. This makes it possible to automate the design process for cycloid reducers with account of various factors including technological ones. A mathematical model and mathematical technique have been developed giving the possibility for modeling the kinematic error of the reducer with account of multiple factors, including manufacturing errors. The errors are considered in the way convenient for prediction of kinematic accuracy early at the manufacturing stage according to the results of reducer parts measurement on coordinate measuring machines. During the modeling, the wheel manufacturing errors are determined by the eccentricity and radius deviation of the pin tooth centers circle, and the deviation between the pin tooth axes positions and the centers circle. The satellite manufacturing errors are determined by the satellite eccentricity deviation and the satellite rim eccentricity. Due to the collinearity, the pin tooth and pin tooth hole diameter errors and the satellite tooth profile errors for a designated contact point are integrated into one deviation. Software implementation of the model makes it possible to estimate the pointed errors influence on satellite rotation angle error and

  13. Accounting for measurement error in human life history trade-offs using structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helle, Samuli

    2018-03-01

    Revealing causal effects from correlative data is very challenging and a contemporary problem in human life history research owing to the lack of experimental approach. Problems with causal inference arising from measurement error in independent variables, whether related either to inaccurate measurement technique or validity of measurements, seem not well-known in this field. The aim of this study is to show how structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables can be applied to account for measurement error in independent variables when the researcher has recorded several indicators of a hypothesized latent construct. As a simple example of this approach, measurement error in lifetime allocation of resources to reproduction in Finnish preindustrial women is modelled in the context of the survival cost of reproduction. In humans, lifetime energetic resources allocated in reproduction are almost impossible to quantify with precision and, thus, typically used measures of lifetime reproductive effort (e.g., lifetime reproductive success and parity) are likely to be plagued by measurement error. These results are contrasted with those obtained from a traditional regression approach where the single best proxy of lifetime reproductive effort available in the data is used for inference. As expected, the inability to account for measurement error in women's lifetime reproductive effort resulted in the underestimation of its underlying effect size on post-reproductive survival. This article emphasizes the advantages that the SEM framework can provide in handling measurement error via multiple-indicator latent variables in human life history studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanSelst, Mark; Freed, Michael; Shefto, Michael (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

  15. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  16. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders

    2013-01-01

    We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Unde...... versions that are simple to compute. A simulation study shows that the finite-sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....... the null of linearity, parameters of nonlinear components vanish, leading to a nonstandard testing problem. We apply so-called sup-tests to resolve this issue, which requires development of new(uniform) functional central limit theory and results for convergence of stochastic integrals. We provide a full......We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Under...

  17. Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strimmer Korbinian

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale. Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood. Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also

  18. Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

    2011-06-01

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

  19. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  20. Some aspects of statistical modeling of human-error probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prairie, R.R.

    1982-01-01

    Human reliability analyses (HRA) are often performed as part of risk assessment and reliability projects. Recent events in nuclear power have shown the potential importance of the human element. There are several on-going efforts in the US and elsewhere with the purpose of modeling human error such that the human contribution can be incorporated into an overall risk assessment associated with one or more aspects of nuclear power. An effort that is described here uses the HRA (event tree) to quantify and model the human contribution to risk. As an example, risk analyses are being prepared on several nuclear power plants as part of the Interim Reliability Assessment Program (IREP). In this process the risk analyst selects the elements of his fault tree that could be contributed to by human error. He then solicits the HF analyst to do a HRA on this element

  1. Approximate Minimization of the Regularized Expected Error over Kernel Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 3 (2008), s. 747-756 ISSN 0364-765X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/05/0557; GA ČR GA201/08/1744 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : suboptimal solutions * expected error * convex functionals * kernel methods * model complexity * rates of convergence Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.086, year: 2008

  2. On Measurement of Efficiency of Cobb-Douglas Production Function with Additive and Multiplicative Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Moyazzem Hossain

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In developing counties, efficiency of economic development has determined by the analysis of industrial production. An examination of the characteristic of industrial sector is an essential aspect of growth studies. The most of the developed countries are highly industrialized as they brief “The more industrialization, the more development”. For proper industrialization and industrial development we have to study industrial input-output relationship that leads to production analysis. For a number of reasons econometrician’s belief that industrial production is the most important component of economic development because, if domestic industrial production increases, GDP will increase, if elasticity of labor is higher, implement rates will increase and investment will increase if elasticity of capital is higher. In this regard, this paper should be helpful in suggesting the most suitable Cobb-Douglas production function to forecast the production process for some selected manufacturing industries of developing countries like Bangladesh. This paper choose the appropriate Cobb-Douglas function which gives optimal combination of inputs, that is, the combination that enables it to produce the desired level of output with minimum cost and hence with maximum profitability for some selected manufacturing industries of Bangladesh over the period 1978-79 to 2011-2012. The estimated results shows that the estimates of both capital and labor elasticity of Cobb-Douglas production function with additive errors are more efficient than those estimates of Cobb-Douglas production function with multiplicative errors.

  3. Topological quantum error correction in the Kitaev honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yi-Chan; Brell, Courtney G.; Flammia, Steven T.

    2017-08-01

    The Kitaev honeycomb model is an approximate topological quantum error correcting code in the same phase as the toric code, but requiring only a 2-body Hamiltonian. As a frustrated spin model, it is well outside the commuting models of topological quantum codes that are typically studied, but its exact solubility makes it more amenable to analysis of effects arising in this noncommutative setting than a generic topologically ordered Hamiltonian. Here we study quantum error correction in the honeycomb model using both analytic and numerical techniques. We first prove explicit exponential bounds on the approximate degeneracy, local indistinguishability, and correctability of the code space. These bounds are tighter than can be achieved using known general properties of topological phases. Our proofs are specialized to the honeycomb model, but some of the methods may nonetheless be of broader interest. Following this, we numerically study noise caused by thermalization processes in the perturbative regime close to the toric code renormalization group fixed point. The appearance of non-topological excitations in this setting has no significant effect on the error correction properties of the honeycomb model in the regimes we study. Although the behavior of this model is found to be qualitatively similar to that of the standard toric code in most regimes, we find numerical evidence of an interesting effect in the low-temperature, finite-size regime where a preferred lattice direction emerges and anyon diffusion is geometrically constrained. We expect this effect to yield an improvement in the scaling of the lifetime with system size as compared to the standard toric code.

  4. The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    systematic comparisons of 12 models provided valuable evidence that the respective error-propagation was not only determined by the degree of positional inaccuracy inherent in the landslide data, but also by the spatial representation of landslides and the environment, landslide magnitude, the characteristics of the study area, the selected classification method and an interplay of predictors within multiple variable models. Based on the results, we deduced that a direct propagation of minor to moderate inventory-based positional errors into modelling results can be partly counteracted by adapting the modelling design (e.g. generalization of input data, opting for strongly generalizing classifiers). Since positional errors within landslide inventories are common and subsequent modelling and validation results are likely to be distorted, the potential existence of inventory-based positional inaccuracies should always be considered when assessing landslide susceptibility by means of empirical models.

  5. Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

    We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...

  6. Error modelling and experimental validation of a planar 3-PPR parallel manipulator with joint clearances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the error modelling and analysis of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator with joint clearances. The kinematics and the Cartesian workspace of the manipulator are analyzed. An error model is established with considerations of both configuration errors and joint clearances. Using...... this model, the upper bounds and distributions of the pose errors for this manipulator are established. The results are compared with experimental measurements and show the effectiveness of the error prediction model....

  7. Multiple imputation of multiple multi-item scales when a full imputation model is infeasible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumpton, Catrin O; Morris, Tim; Hughes, Dyfrig A; White, Ian R

    2016-01-26

    Missing data in a large scale survey presents major challenges. We focus on performing multiple imputation by chained equations when data contain multiple incomplete multi-item scales. Recent authors have proposed imputing such data at the level of the individual item, but this can lead to infeasibly large imputation models. We use data gathered from a large multinational survey, where analysis uses separate logistic regression models in each of nine country-specific data sets. In these data, applying multiple imputation by chained equations to the individual scale items is computationally infeasible. We propose an adaptation of multiple imputation by chained equations which imputes the individual scale items but reduces the number of variables in the imputation models by replacing most scale items with scale summary scores. We evaluate the feasibility of the proposed approach and compare it with a complete case analysis. We perform a simulation study to compare the proposed method with alternative approaches: we do this in a simplified setting to allow comparison with the full imputation model. For the case study, the proposed approach reduces the size of the prediction models from 134 predictors to a maximum of 72 and makes multiple imputation by chained equations computationally feasible. Distributions of imputed data are seen to be consistent with observed data. Results from the regression analysis with multiple imputation are similar to, but more precise than, results for complete case analysis; for the same regression models a 39% reduction in the standard error is observed. The simulation shows that our proposed method can perform comparably against the alternatives. By substantially reducing imputation model sizes, our adaptation makes multiple imputation feasible for large scale survey data with multiple multi-item scales. For the data considered, analysis of the multiply imputed data shows greater power and efficiency than complete case analysis. The

  8. Error apportionment for atmospheric chemistry-transport models – a new approach to model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Solazzo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, methods are proposed to diagnose the causes of errors in air quality (AQ modelling systems. We investigate the deviation between modelled and observed time series of surface ozone through a revised formulation for breaking down the mean square error (MSE into bias, variance and the minimum achievable MSE (mMSE. The bias measures the accuracy and implies the existence of systematic errors and poor representation of data complexity, the variance measures the precision and provides an estimate of the variability of the modelling results in relation to the observed data, and the mMSE reflects unsystematic errors and provides a measure of the associativity between the modelled and the observed fields through the correlation coefficient. Each of the error components is analysed independently and apportioned to resolved processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intra-day and as a function of model complexity.The apportionment of the error is applied to the AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative group of models, which embrace the majority of regional AQ modelling systems currently used in Europe and North America.The proposed technique has proven to be a compact estimator of the operational metrics commonly used for model evaluation (bias, variance, and correlation coefficient, and has the further benefit of apportioning the error to the originating timescale, thus allowing for a clearer diagnosis of the processes that caused the error.

  9. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  10. Structural Modeling of Measurement Error in Generalized Linear Models with Rasch Measures as Covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battauz, Michela; Bellio, Ruggero

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a structural analysis for generalized linear models when some explanatory variables are measured with error and the measurement error variance is a function of the true variables. The focus is on latent variables investigated on the basis of questionnaires and estimated using item response theory models. Latent variable…

  11. Effects of model error on cardiac electrical wave state reconstruction using data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, Nicholas S; Holt, Nathan; Hoffman, Matthew J; Cherry, Elizabeth M

    2017-09-01

    Reentrant electrical scroll waves have been shown to underlie many cardiac arrhythmias, but the inability to observe locations away from the heart surfaces and the restriction of observations to only one or two state variables have made understanding arrhythmia mechanisms challenging. Recently, we showed that data assimilation from spatiotemporally sparse surrogate observations could be used to reconstruct a reliable time series of state estimates of reentrant cardiac electrical waves including unobserved variables in one and three spatial dimensions. However, real cardiac tissue is unlikely to be described accurately by mathematical models because of errors in model formulation and parameterization as well as intrinsic but poorly described spatial heterogeneity of electrophysiological properties in the heart. Here, we extend our previous work to assess how model error affects the accuracy of cardiac state estimates achieved using data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. We focus on one-dimensional states of discordant alternans characterized by significant wavelength oscillations. We demonstrate that data assimilation can provide high-quality estimates under a wide range of model error conditions, ranging from varying one or more parameter values to using an entirely different model to generate the truth state. We illustrate how multiplicative and additive inflation can be used to reduce error in the state estimates. Even when the truth state contains underlying spatial heterogeneity, we show that using a homogeneous model in the data assimilation algorithm can achieve good results. Overall, we find data assimilation to be a robust approach for reconstructing complex cardiac electrical states corresponding to arrhythmias even in the presence of model error.

  12. Effects of model error on cardiac electrical wave state reconstruction using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, Nicholas S.; Holt, Nathan; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Cherry, Elizabeth M.

    2017-09-01

    Reentrant electrical scroll waves have been shown to underlie many cardiac arrhythmias, but the inability to observe locations away from the heart surfaces and the restriction of observations to only one or two state variables have made understanding arrhythmia mechanisms challenging. Recently, we showed that data assimilation from spatiotemporally sparse surrogate observations could be used to reconstruct a reliable time series of state estimates of reentrant cardiac electrical waves including unobserved variables in one and three spatial dimensions. However, real cardiac tissue is unlikely to be described accurately by mathematical models because of errors in model formulation and parameterization as well as intrinsic but poorly described spatial heterogeneity of electrophysiological properties in the heart. Here, we extend our previous work to assess how model error affects the accuracy of cardiac state estimates achieved using data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. We focus on one-dimensional states of discordant alternans characterized by significant wavelength oscillations. We demonstrate that data assimilation can provide high-quality estimates under a wide range of model error conditions, ranging from varying one or more parameter values to using an entirely different model to generate the truth state. We illustrate how multiplicative and additive inflation can be used to reduce error in the state estimates. Even when the truth state contains underlying spatial heterogeneity, we show that using a homogeneous model in the data assimilation algorithm can achieve good results. Overall, we find data assimilation to be a robust approach for reconstructing complex cardiac electrical states corresponding to arrhythmias even in the presence of model error.

  13. Common but unappreciated sources of error in one, two, and multiple-color pyrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spjut, R. Erik

    1988-01-01

    The most common sources of error in optical pyrometry are examined. They can be classified as either noise and uncertainty errors, stray radiation errors, or speed-of-response errors. Through judicious choice of detectors and optical wavelengths the effect of noise errors can be minimized, but one should strive to determine as many of the system properties as possible. Careful consideration of the optical-collection system can minimize stray radiation errors. Careful consideration must also be given to the slowest elements in a pyrometer when measuring rapid phenomena.

  14. Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

  15. Improved model predictive control of resistive wall modes by error field estimator in EXTRAP T2R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.

    2016-12-01

    Many implementations of a model-based approach for toroidal plasma have shown better control performance compared to the conventional type of feedback controller. One prerequisite of model-based control is the availability of a control oriented model. This model can be obtained empirically through a systematic procedure called system identification. Such a model is used in this work to design a model predictive controller to stabilize multiple resistive wall modes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch. Model predictive control is an advanced control method that can optimize the future behaviour of a system. Furthermore, this paper will discuss an additional use of the empirical model which is to estimate the error field in EXTRAP T2R. Two potential methods are discussed that can estimate the error field. The error field estimator is then combined with the model predictive control and yields better radial magnetic field suppression.

  16. Modeling Multiple Causes of Carcinogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, T D

    1999-01-24

    An array of epidemiological results and databases on test animal indicate that risk of cancer and atherosclerosis can be up- or down-regulated by diet through a range of 200%. Other factors contribute incrementally and include the natural terrestrial environment and various human activities that jointly produce complex exposures to endotoxin-producing microorganisms, ionizing radiations, and chemicals. Ordinary personal habits and simple physical irritants have been demonstrated to affect the immune response and risk of disease. There tends to be poor statistical correlation of long-term risk with single agent exposures incurred throughout working careers. However, Agency recommendations for control of hazardous exposures to humans has been substance-specific instead of contextually realistic even though there is consistent evidence for common mechanisms of toxicological and carcinogenic action. That behavior seems to be best explained by molecular stresses from cellular oxygen metabolism and phagocytosis of antigenic invasion as well as breakdown of normal metabolic compounds associated with homeostatic- and injury-related renewal of cells. There is continually mounting evidence that marrow stroma, comprised largely of monocyte-macrophages and fibroblasts, is important to phagocytic and cytokinetic response, but the complex action of the immune process is difficult to infer from first-principle logic or biomarkers of toxic injury. The many diverse database studies all seem to implicate two important processes, i.e., the univalent reduction of molecular oxygen and breakdown of aginuine, an amino acid, by hydrolysis or digestion of protein which is attendant to normal antigen-antibody action. This behavior indicates that protection guidelines and risk coefficients should be context dependent to include reference considerations of the composite action of parameters that mediate oxygen metabolism. A logic of this type permits the realistic common-scale modeling of

  17. PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL SEBAGAI PENENTU HARGA SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Kaluge

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was to find the effect of profitability, rate of interest, GDP, and foreign exchange rate on stockprices. Approach used was error correction model. Profitability was indicated by variables EPS, and ROIwhile the SBI (1 month was used for representing interest rate. This research found that all variablessimultaneously affected the stock prices significantly. Partially, EPS, PER, and Foreign Exchange rate significantlyaffected the prices both in short run and long run. Interestingly that SBI and GDP did not affect theprices at all. The variable of ROI had only long run impact on the prices.

  18. The Impact of Atmospheric Modeling Errors on GRACE Estimates of Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Ryan A.; Nerem, R. Steven; Wiese, David N.

    2017-12-01

    Systematic errors in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly mass estimates over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets can originate from low-frequency biases in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Operational Analysis model, the atmospheric component of the Atmospheric and Ocean Dealising Level-1B (AOD1B) product used to forward model atmospheric and ocean gravity signals in GRACE processing. These biases are revealed in differences in surface pressure between the ECMWF Operational Analysis model, state-of-the-art reanalyses, and in situ surface pressure measurements. While some of these errors are attributable to well-understood discrete model changes and have published corrections, we examine errors these corrections do not address. We compare multiple models and in situ data in Antarctica and Greenland to determine which models have the most skill relative to monthly averages of the dealiasing model. We also evaluate linear combinations of these models and synthetic pressure fields generated from direct interpolation of pressure observations. These models consistently reveal drifts in the dealiasing model that cause the acceleration of Antarctica's mass loss between April 2002 and August 2016 to be underestimated by approximately 4 Gt yr-2. We find similar results after attempting to solve the inverse problem, recovering pressure biases directly from the GRACE Jet Propulsion Laboratory RL05.1 M mascon solutions. Over Greenland, we find a 2 Gt yr-1 bias in mass trend. While our analysis focuses on errors in Release 05 of AOD1B, we also evaluate the new AOD1B RL06 product. We find that this new product mitigates some of the aforementioned biases.

  19. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  20. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, J.

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in total, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  1. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, James

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in toto, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  2. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  3. Multiple Imputation Strategies for Multiple Group Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enders, Craig K.; Gottschall, Amanda C.

    2011-01-01

    Although structural equation modeling software packages use maximum likelihood estimation by default, there are situations where one might prefer to use multiple imputation to handle missing data rather than maximum likelihood estimation (e.g., when incorporating auxiliary variables). The selection of variables is one of the nuances associated…

  4. MI Double Feature: Multiple Imputation to Address Nonresponse and Rounding Errors in Income Questions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg Drechsler

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining reliable income information in surveys is difficult for two reasons. On the one hand, many survey respondents consider income to be sensitive information and thus are reluctant to answer questions regarding their income. If those survey participants that do not provide information on their income are systematically different from the respondents - and there is ample of research indicating that they are - results based only on the observed income values will be misleading. On the other hand, respondents tend to round their income. Especially this second source of error is usually ignored when analyzing the income information.In a recent paper, Drechsler and Kiesl (2014 illustrated that inferences based on the collected information can be biased if the rounding is ignored and suggested a multiple imputation strategy to account for the rounding in reported income. In this paper we extend their approach to also address the nonresponse problem. We illustrate the approach using the household income variable from the German panel study "Labor Market and Social Security''.

  5. Uncertainty and error in complex plasma chemistry models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Miles M.

    2015-06-01

    Chemistry models that include dozens of species and hundreds to thousands of reactions are common in low-temperature plasma physics. The rate constants used in such models are uncertain, because they are obtained from some combination of experiments and approximate theories. Since the predictions of these models are a function of the rate constants, these predictions must also be uncertain. However, systematic investigations of the influence of uncertain rate constants on model predictions are rare to non-existent. In this work we examine a particular chemistry model, for helium-oxygen plasmas. This chemistry is of topical interest because of its relevance to biomedical applications of atmospheric pressure plasmas. We trace the primary sources for every rate constant in the model, and hence associate an error bar (or equivalently, an uncertainty) with each. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to quantify the uncertainty in predicted plasma species densities caused by the uncertainty in the rate constants. Under the conditions investigated, the range of uncertainty in most species densities is a factor of two to five. However, the uncertainty can vary strongly for different species, over time, and with other plasma conditions. There are extreme (pathological) cases where the uncertainty is more than a factor of ten. One should therefore be cautious in drawing any conclusion from plasma chemistry modelling, without first ensuring that the conclusion in question survives an examination of the related uncertainty.

  6. The regression-calibration method for fitting generalized linear models with additive measurement error

    OpenAIRE

    James W. Hardin; Henrik Schmeidiche; Raymond J. Carroll

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses and illustrates the method of regression calibration. This is a straightforward technique for fitting models with additive measurement error. We present this discussion in terms of generalized linear models (GLMs) following the notation defined in Hardin and Carroll (2003). Discussion will include specified measurement error, measurement error estimated by replicate error-prone proxies, and measurement error estimated by instrumental variables. The discussion focuses on s...

  7. Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carl Stern; Martin Lee

    1999-01-01

    Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models

  8. Mean absolute error and root mean square error: which is the better metric for assessing model performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brassington, Gary

    2017-04-01

    The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are two metrics that are often used interchangeably as measures of ocean forecast accuracy. Recent literature has debated which of these should be preferred though their conclusions have largely been based on empirical arguments. We note that in general, RM SE2 = M AE2 + V ARk [|ɛ|] PIC PIC such that RMSE includes both the MAE as well as additional information related to the variance (biased estimator) of the errors ɛ with sample size k. The greater sensitivity of RMSE to a small number of outliers is directly attributable to the variance of absolute error. Further statistical properties for both metrics are derived and compared based on the assumption that the errors are Gaussian. For an unbiased (or bias corrected) model both MAE and RMSE are shown to estimate the total error standard deviation to within a constant coefficient such that ° -- M AE ≈ 2/πRM SE PIC . Both metrics have comparable behaviour in response to model bias and asymptote to the model bias as the bias increases. MAE is shown to be an unbiased estimator while RMSE is a biased estimator. MAE also has a lower sample variance compared with RMSE indicating MAE is the most robust choice. For real-time applications where there is a likelihood of "bad" observations we recommend ° - ° ---° - π- -1- π- π- TESD = 2 M AE ± √k- 2 - 1 2M AE PIC as an unbiased estimator of the total error standard deviation with error estimates (one standard deviation) based on the sample variance and defined as a scaling of the MAE itself. A sample size (k) on the order of 90 and 9000 provides an error scaling of 10% and 1% respectively. Nonetheless if the model performance is being analysed using a large sample of delayed-mode quality controlled observations then RMSE might be preferred where the second moment sensitivity to large model errors is important. Alternatively for model intercomparisons the information might compactly represented by a

  9. A Fortran IV Program for Estimating Parameters through Multiple Matrix Sampling with Standard Errors of Estimate Approximated by the Jackknife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, David M.

    Described and listed herein with concomitant sample input and output is the Fortran IV program which estimates parameters and standard errors of estimate per parameters for parameters estimated through multiple matrix sampling. The specific program is an improved and expanded version of an earlier version. (Author/BJG)

  10. Peak-counts blood flow model-errors and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullani, N.A.; Marani, S.K.; Ekas, R.D.; Gould, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    The peak-counts model has several advantages, but its use may be limited due to the condition that the venous egress may not be negligible at the time of peak-counts. Consequently, blood flow measurements by the peak-counts model will depend on the bolus size, bolus duration, and the minimum transit time of the bolus through the region of interest. The effect of bolus size on the measurement of extraction fraction and blood flow was evaluated by injecting 1 to 30ml of rubidium chloride in the femoral vein of a dog and measuring the myocardial activity with a beta probe over the heart. Regional blood flow measurements were not found to vary with bolus sizes up to 30ml. The effect of bolus duration was studied by injecting a 10cc bolus of tracer at different speeds in the femoral vein of a dog. All intravenous injections undergo a broadening of the bolus duration due to the transit time of the tracer through the lungs and the heart. This transit time was found to range from 4-6 second FWHM and dominates the duration of the bolus to the myocardium for up to 3 second injections. A computer simulation has been carried out in which the different parameters of delay time, extraction fraction, and bolus duration can be changed to assess the errors in the peak-counts model. The results of the simulations show that the error will be greatest for short transit time delays and for low extraction fractions

  11. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-01-01

    A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well

  12. #2 - An Empirical Assessment of Exposure Measurement Error and Effect Attenuation in Bi-Pollutant Epidemiologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background• Differing degrees of exposure error acrosspollutants• Previous focus on quantifying and accounting forexposure error in single-pollutant models• Examine exposure errors for multiple pollutantsand provide insights on the potential for bias andattenuation...

  13. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu

    2014-06-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Error modelling of quantum Hall array resistance standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzano, Martina; Oe, Takehiko; Ortolano, Massimo; Callegaro, Luca; Kaneko, Nobu-Hisa

    2018-04-01

    Quantum Hall array resistance standards (QHARSs) are integrated circuits composed of interconnected quantum Hall effect elements that allow the realization of virtually arbitrary resistance values. In recent years, techniques were presented to efficiently design QHARS networks. An open problem is that of the evaluation of the accuracy of a QHARS, which is affected by contact and wire resistances. In this work, we present a general and systematic procedure for the error modelling of QHARSs, which is based on modern circuit analysis techniques and Monte Carlo evaluation of the uncertainty. As a practical example, this method of analysis is applied to the characterization of a 1 MΩ QHARS developed by the National Metrology Institute of Japan. Software tools are provided to apply the procedure to other arrays.

  15. Assessing type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data-A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassarly, Christy; Martin, Renee' H; Chimowitz, Marc; Peña, Edsel A; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Palesch, Yuko Y

    2017-01-01

    Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that the multistate Markov models preserve the type I error and adequate power is achieved with modest sample sizes for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions.

  16. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Krol, M.C.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-01-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise,

  17. Subspace electrode selection methodology for EEG multiple source localization error reduction due to uncertain conductivity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crevecoeur, Guillaume; Yitembe, Bertrand; Dupre, Luc; Van Keer, Roger

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a modification of the subspace correlation cost function and the Recursively Applied and Projected Multiple Signal Classification (RAP-MUSIC) method for electroencephalography (EEG) source analysis in epilepsy. This enables to reconstruct neural source locations and orientations that are less degraded due to the uncertain knowledge of the head conductivity values. An extended linear forward model is used in the subspace correlation cost function that incorporates the sensitivity of the EEG potentials to the uncertain conductivity value parameter. More specifically, the principal vector of the subspace correlation function is used to provide relevant information for solving the EEG inverse problems. A simulation study is carried out on a simplified spherical head model with uncertain skull to soft tissue conductivity ratio. Results show an improvement in the reconstruction accuracy of source parameters compared to traditional methodology, when using conductivity ratio values that are different from the actual conductivity ratio.

  18. Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau

    2018-03-01

    Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated with the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on offline coupled modeling systems in which meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated with the offline modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the offline coupling strategy are compared against those from an online forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors due to the offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional offline forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios in which the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for real-time advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally

  19. Hand-eye calibration using a target registration error model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Elvis C S; Morgan, Isabella; Jayarathne, Uditha; Ma, Burton; Peters, Terry M

    2017-10-01

    Surgical cameras are prevalent in modern operating theatres and are often used as a surrogate for direct vision. Visualisation techniques (e.g. image fusion) made possible by tracking the camera require accurate hand-eye calibration between the camera and the tracking system. The authors introduce the concept of 'guided hand-eye calibration', where calibration measurements are facilitated by a target registration error (TRE) model. They formulate hand-eye calibration as a registration problem between homologous point-line pairs. For each measurement, the position of a monochromatic ball-tip stylus (a point) and its projection onto the image (a line) is recorded, and the TRE of the resulting calibration is predicted using a TRE model. The TRE model is then used to guide the placement of the calibration tool, so that the subsequent measurement minimises the predicted TRE. Assessing TRE after each measurement produces accurate calibration using a minimal number of measurements. As a proof of principle, they evaluated guided calibration using a webcam and an endoscopic camera. Their endoscopic camera results suggest that millimetre TRE is achievable when at least 15 measurements are acquired with the tracker sensor ∼80 cm away on the laparoscope handle for a target ∼20 cm away from the camera.

  20. Being an honest broker of hydrology: Uncovering, communicating and addressing model error in a climate change streamflow dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Pytlak, E.

    2017-12-01

    Any model simulation has errors, including errors in meteorological data, process understanding, model structure, and model parameters. These errors may express themselves as bias, timing lags, and differences in sensitivity between the model and the physical world. The evaluation and handling of these errors can greatly affect the legitimacy, validity and usefulness of the resulting scientific product. In this presentation we will discuss a case study of handling and communicating model errors during the development of a hydrologic climate change dataset for the Pacific Northwestern United States. The dataset was the result of a four-year collaboration between the University of Washington, Oregon State University, the Bonneville Power Administration, the United States Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation. Along the way, the partnership facilitated the discovery of multiple systematic errors in the streamflow dataset. Through an iterative review process, some of those errors could be resolved. For the errors that remained, honest communication of the shortcomings promoted the dataset's legitimacy. Thoroughly explaining errors also improved ways in which the dataset would be used in follow-on impact studies. Finally, we will discuss the development of the "streamflow bias-correction" step often applied to climate change datasets that will be used in impact modeling contexts. We will describe the development of a series of bias-correction techniques through close collaboration among universities and stakeholders. Through that process, both universities and stakeholders learned about the others' expectations and workflows. This mutual learning process allowed for the development of methods that accommodated the stakeholders' specific engineering requirements. The iterative revision process also produced a functional and actionable dataset while preserving its scientific merit. We will describe how encountering earlier techniques' pitfalls allowed us

  1. Hebbian errors in learning: an analysis using the Oja model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rădulescu, Anca; Cox, Kingsley; Adams, Paul

    2009-06-21

    Recent work on long term potentiation in brain slices shows that Hebb's rule is not completely synapse-specific, probably due to intersynapse diffusion of calcium or other factors. We previously suggested that such errors in Hebbian learning might be analogous to mutations in evolution. We examine this proposal quantitatively, extending the classical Oja unsupervised model of learning by a single linear neuron to include Hebbian inspecificity. We introduce an error matrix E, which expresses possible crosstalk between updating at different connections. When there is no inspecificity, this gives the classical result of convergence to the first principal component of the input distribution (PC1). We show the modified algorithm converges to the leading eigenvector of the matrix EC, where C is the input covariance matrix. In the most biologically plausible case when there are no intrinsically privileged connections, E has diagonal elements Q and off-diagonal elements (1-Q)/(n-1), where Q, the quality, is expected to decrease with the number of inputs n and with a synaptic parameter b that reflects synapse density, calcium diffusion, etc. We study the dependence of the learning accuracy on b, n and the amount of input activity or correlation (analytically and computationally). We find that accuracy increases (learning becomes gradually less useful) with increases in b, particularly for intermediate (i.e., biologically realistic) correlation strength, although some useful learning always occurs up to the trivial limit Q=1/n. We discuss the relation of our results to Hebbian unsupervised learning in the brain. When the mechanism lacks specificity, the network fails to learn the expected, and typically most useful, result, especially when the input correlation is weak. Hebbian crosstalk would reflect the very high density of synapses along dendrites, and inevitably degrades learning.

  2. Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

  3. MFAM: Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-Based Indoor Localization Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuta, Jure; Juric, Matjaz B

    2018-03-24

    This paper presents MFAM (Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-based localization method), a novel model-based indoor localization method that is capable of using multiple wireless signal frequencies simultaneously. It utilizes indoor architectural model and physical properties of wireless signal propagation through objects and space. The motivation for developing multiple frequency localization method lies in the future Wi-Fi standards (e.g., 802.11ah) and the growing number of various wireless signals present in the buildings (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, etc.). Current indoor localization methods mostly rely on a single wireless signal type and often require many devices to achieve the necessary accuracy. MFAM utilizes multiple wireless signal types and improves the localization accuracy over the usage of a single frequency. It continuously monitors signal propagation through space and adapts the model according to the changes indoors. Using multiple signal sources lowers the required number of access points for a specific signal type while utilizing signals, already present in the indoors. Due to the unavailability of the 802.11ah hardware, we have evaluated proposed method with similar signals; we have used 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi and 868 MHz HomeMatic home automation signals. We have performed the evaluation in a modern two-bedroom apartment and measured mean localization error 2.0 to 2.3 m and median error of 2.0 to 2.2 m. Based on our evaluation results, using two different signals improves the localization accuracy by 18% in comparison to 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi-only approach. Additional signals would improve the accuracy even further. We have shown that MFAM provides better accuracy than competing methods, while having several advantages for real-world usage.

  4. Field error lottery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, C.J.; McVey, B. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); Quimby, D.C. (Spectra Technology, Inc., Bellevue, WA (USA))

    1990-01-01

    The level of field errors in an FEL is an important determinant of its performance. We have computed 3D performance of a large laser subsystem subjected to field errors of various types. These calculations have been guided by simple models such as SWOOP. The technique of choice is utilization of the FELEX free electron laser code that now possesses extensive engineering capabilities. Modeling includes the ability to establish tolerances of various types: fast and slow scale field bowing, field error level, beam position monitor error level, gap errors, defocusing errors, energy slew, displacement and pointing errors. Many effects of these errors on relative gain and relative power extraction are displayed and are the essential elements of determining an error budget. The random errors also depend on the particular random number seed used in the calculation. The simultaneous display of the performance versus error level of cases with multiple seeds illustrates the variations attributable to stochasticity of this model. All these errors are evaluated numerically for comprehensive engineering of the system. In particular, gap errors are found to place requirements beyond mechanical tolerances of {plus minus}25{mu}m, and amelioration of these may occur by a procedure utilizing direct measurement of the magnetic fields at assembly time. 4 refs., 12 figs.

  5. Holographic quantum error-correcting codes: toy models for the bulk/boundary correspondence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastawski, Fernando; Yoshida, Beni; Harlow, Daniel; Preskill, John

    2015-06-01

    We propose a family of exactly solvable toy models for the AdS/CFT correspondence based on a novel construction of quantum error-correcting codes with a tensor network structure. Our building block is a special type of tensor with maximal entanglement along any bipartition, which gives rise to an isometry from the bulk Hilbert space to the boundary Hilbert space. The entire tensor network is an encoder for a quantum error-correcting code, where the bulk and boundary degrees of freedom may be identified as logical and physical degrees of freedom respectively. These models capture key features of entanglement in the AdS/CFT correspondence; in particular, the Ryu-Takayanagi formula and the negativity of tripartite information are obeyed exactly in many cases. That bulk logical operators can be represented on multiple boundary regions mimics the Rindlerwedge reconstruction of boundary operators from bulk operators, realizing explicitly the quantum error-correcting features of AdS/CFT recently proposed in [1].

  6. Holographic quantum error-correcting codes: toy models for the bulk/boundary correspondence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastawski, Fernando; Yoshida, Beni [Institute for Quantum Information & Matter and Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics,California Institute of Technology,1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena CA 91125 (United States); Harlow, Daniel [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,400 Jadwin Hall, Princeton NJ 08540 (United States); Preskill, John [Institute for Quantum Information & Matter and Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics,California Institute of Technology,1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-06-23

    We propose a family of exactly solvable toy models for the AdS/CFT correspondence based on a novel construction of quantum error-correcting codes with a tensor network structure. Our building block is a special type of tensor with maximal entanglement along any bipartition, which gives rise to an isometry from the bulk Hilbert space to the boundary Hilbert space. The entire tensor network is an encoder for a quantum error-correcting code, where the bulk and boundary degrees of freedom may be identified as logical and physical degrees of freedom respectively. These models capture key features of entanglement in the AdS/CFT correspondence; in particular, the Ryu-Takayanagi formula and the negativity of tripartite information are obeyed exactly in many cases. That bulk logical operators can be represented on multiple boundary regions mimics the Rindler-wedge reconstruction of boundary operators from bulk operators, realizing explicitly the quantum error-correcting features of AdS/CFT recently proposed in http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP04(2015)163.

  7. Selecting Human Error Types for Cognitive Modelling and Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mioch, T.; Osterloh, J.P.; Javaux, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method that has enabled us to make a selection of error types and error production mechanisms relevant to the HUMAN European project, and discusses the reasons underlying those choices. We claim that this method has the advantage that it is very exhaustive in determining the

  8. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    , such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...

  9. Learning from Errors: A Model of Individual Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulis, Maria; Steuer, Gabriele; Dresel, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Errors bear the potential to improve knowledge acquisition, provided that learners are able to deal with them in an adaptive and reflexive manner. However, learners experience a host of different--often impeding or maladaptive--emotional and motivational states in the face of academic errors. Research has made few attempts to develop a theory that…

  10. Solving Inverse Radiation Transport Problems with Multi-Sensor Data in the Presence of Correlated Measurement and Modeling Errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Edward V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stork, Christopher L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mattingly, John K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Inverse radiation transport focuses on identifying the configuration of an unknown radiation source given its observed radiation signatures. The inverse problem is traditionally solved by finding the set of transport model parameter values that minimizes a weighted sum of the squared differences by channel between the observed signature and the signature pre dicted by the hypothesized model parameters. The weights are inversely proportional to the sum of the variances of the measurement and model errors at a given channel. The traditional implicit (often inaccurate) assumption is that the errors (differences between the modeled and observed radiation signatures) are independent across channels. Here, an alternative method that accounts for correlated errors between channels is described and illustrated using an inverse problem based on the combination of gam ma and neutron multiplicity counting measurements.

  11. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Krol, M.; Patra, P. K.; Prinn, R. G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-10-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr-1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr-1 in North America to 7 Tg yr-1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of

  12. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  13. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  14. Students’ errors in solving combinatorics problems observed from the characteristics of RME modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meika, I.; Suryadi, D.; Darhim

    2018-01-01

    This article was written based on the learning evaluation results of students’ errors in solving combinatorics problems observed from the characteristics of Realistic Mathematics Education (RME); that is modeling. Descriptive method was employed by involving 55 students from two international-based pilot state senior high schools in Banten. The findings of the study suggested that the students still committed errors in simplifying the problem as much 46%; errors in making mathematical model (horizontal mathematization) as much 60%; errors in finishing mathematical model (vertical mathematization) as much 65%; and errors in interpretation as well as validation as much 66%.

  15. Assessing type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data-A simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    Cassarly, Christy; Martin, Renee’ H.; Chimowitz, Marc; Peña, Edsel A.; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Palesch, Yuko Y.

    2016-01-01

    Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that ...

  16. Application of grey theory in identification model of human error criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Pengcheng; Zhang Li; Wang Yiqun

    2009-01-01

    The identification model for human error criticality is constructed on the basis of the principle of the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. It consists of three decision-making factors, namely the scale of probability of occurrence of human error mode, the scale of probability of error-effect and the scale of error-consequence criticality. It is difficult to consider the weight of every factor, this paper employs the grey theory to identify the human error criticality, which provides a new viewpoint for the identification of the priority of error criticality and origin, which overcome the problem for the actual weight distribution. (authors)

  17. Modeling of alpha-particle-induced soft error rate in DRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, H.

    1999-01-01

    Alpha-particle-induced soft error in 256M DRAM was numerically investigated. A unified model for alpha-particle-induced charge collection and a soft-error-rate simulator (SERS) was developed. The author investigated the soft error rate of 256M DRAM and identified the bit-bar mode as one of dominant modes for soft error. In addition, for the first time, it was found that trench-oxide depth has a significant influence on soft error rate, and it should be determined by the tradeoff between soft error rate and cell-to-cell isolation characteristics

  18. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one......, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...... due to GIA. GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA....

  19. Mapping vulnerability of multiple aquifers using multiple models and fuzzy logic to objectively derive model structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, Ata Allah; Sedghi, Zahra; Khatibi, Rahman; Gharekhani, Maryam

    2017-09-01

    Driven by contamination risks, mapping Vulnerability Indices (VI) of multiple aquifers (both unconfined and confined) is investigated by integrating the basic DRASTIC framework with multiple models overarched by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The DRASTIC framework is a proactive tool to assess VI values using the data from the hydrosphere, lithosphere and anthroposphere. However, a research case arises for the application of multiple models on the ground of poor determination coefficients between the VI values and non-point anthropogenic contaminants. The paper formulates SCFL models, which are derived from the multiple model philosophy of Supervised Committee (SC) machines and Fuzzy Logic (FL) and hence SCFL as their integration. The Fuzzy Logic-based (FL) models include: Sugeno Fuzzy Logic (SFL), Mamdani Fuzzy Logic (MFL), Larsen Fuzzy Logic (LFL) models. The basic DRASTIC framework uses prescribed rating and weighting values based on expert judgment but the four FL-based models (SFL, MFL, LFL and SCFL) derive their values as per internal strategy within these models. The paper reports that FL and multiple models improve considerably on the correlation between the modeled vulnerability indices and observed nitrate-N values and as such it provides evidence that the SCFL multiple models can be an alternative to the basic framework even for multiple aquifers. The study area with multiple aquifers is in Varzeqan plain, East Azerbaijan, northwest Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Avoiding and identifying errors in health technology assessment models: qualitative study and methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilcott, J; Tappenden, P; Rawdin, A; Johnson, M; Kaltenthaler, E; Paisley, S; Papaioannou, D; Shippam, A

    2010-05-01

    Health policy decisions must be relevant, evidence-based and transparent. Decision-analytic modelling supports this process but its role is reliant on its credibility. Errors in mathematical decision models or simulation exercises are unavoidable but little attention has been paid to processes in model development. Numerous error avoidance/identification strategies could be adopted but it is difficult to evaluate the merits of strategies for improving the credibility of models without first developing an understanding of error types and causes. The study aims to describe the current comprehension of errors in the HTA modelling community and generate a taxonomy of model errors. Four primary objectives are to: (1) describe the current understanding of errors in HTA modelling; (2) understand current processes applied by the technology assessment community for avoiding errors in development, debugging and critically appraising models for errors; (3) use HTA modellers' perceptions of model errors with the wider non-HTA literature to develop a taxonomy of model errors; and (4) explore potential methods and procedures to reduce the occurrence of errors in models. It also describes the model development process as perceived by practitioners working within the HTA community. A methodological review was undertaken using an iterative search methodology. Exploratory searches informed the scope of interviews; later searches focused on issues arising from the interviews. Searches were undertaken in February 2008 and January 2009. In-depth qualitative interviews were performed with 12 HTA modellers from academic and commercial modelling sectors. All qualitative data were analysed using the Framework approach. Descriptive and explanatory accounts were used to interrogate the data within and across themes and subthemes: organisation, roles and communication; the model development process; definition of error; types of model error; strategies for avoiding errors; strategies for

  1. Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2000-01-01

    This paper focuses on handling measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory (IRT). Measurement error is of great important in assessment of theoretical constructs, such as intelligence or the school climate. Measurement error is modeled by treating the predictors as unobserved

  2. Error sources in atomic force microscopy for dimensional measurements: Taxonomy and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinello, F.; Voltan, A.; Savio, E.

    2010-01-01

    : scanning system, tip-surface interaction, environment, and data processing. The discussed errors include scaling effects, squareness errors, hysteresis, creep, tip convolution, and thermal drift. A mathematical model of the measurement system is eventually described, as a reference basis for errors...

  3. Mirrors, Mirrors on the Wall...The Ubiquitous Multiple Reflection Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    Participants decided when somebody, Janine, could see their face in a horizontal row of adjacent mirrors mounted flat on the same wall. They saw real mirrors and a shop-dummy representing Janine. Such coplanar mirrors reflect different, non-overlapping areas of a scene. However, almost everybody made an unexpected error: they claimed that Janine…

  4. Simulation Model for Correction and Modeling of Probe Head Errors in Five-Axis Coordinate Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gąska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulative methods are nowadays frequently used in metrology for the simulation of measurement uncertainty and the prediction of errors that may occur during measurements. In coordinate metrology, such methods are primarily used with the typical three-axis Coordinate Measuring Machines (CMMs, and lately, also with mobile measuring systems. However, no similar simulative models have been developed for five-axis systems in spite of their growing popularity in recent years. This paper presents the numerical model of probe head errors for probe heads that are used in five-axis coordinate systems. The model is based on measurements of material standards (standard ring and the use of the Monte Carlo method combined with select interpolation methods. The developed model may be used in conjunction with one of the known models of CMM kinematic errors to form a virtual model of a five-axis coordinate system. In addition, the developed methodology allows for the correction of identified probe head errors, thus improving measurement accuracy. Subsequent verification tests prove the correct functioning of the presented model.

  5. Model-observer similarity, error modeling and social learning in rhesus macaques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Monfardini

    Full Text Available Monkeys readily learn to discriminate between rewarded and unrewarded items or actions by observing their conspecifics. However, they do not systematically learn from humans. Understanding what makes human-to-monkey transmission of knowledge work or fail could help identify mediators and moderators of social learning that operate regardless of language or culture, and transcend inter-species differences. Do monkeys fail to learn when human models show a behavior too dissimilar from the animals' own, or when they show a faultless performance devoid of error? To address this question, six rhesus macaques trained to find which object within a pair concealed a food reward were successively tested with three models: a familiar conspecific, a 'stimulus-enhancing' human actively drawing the animal's attention to one object of the pair without actually performing the task, and a 'monkey-like' human performing the task in the same way as the monkey model did. Reward was manipulated to ensure that all models showed equal proportions of errors and successes. The 'monkey-like' human model improved the animals' subsequent object discrimination learning as much as a conspecific did, whereas the 'stimulus-enhancing' human model tended on the contrary to retard learning. Modeling errors rather than successes optimized learning from the monkey and 'monkey-like' models, while exacerbating the adverse effect of the 'stimulus-enhancing' model. These findings identify error modeling as a moderator of social learning in monkeys that amplifies the models' influence, whether beneficial or detrimental. By contrast, model-observer similarity in behavior emerged as a mediator of social learning, that is, a prerequisite for a model to work in the first place. The latter finding suggests that, as preverbal infants, macaques need to perceive the model as 'like-me' and that, once this condition is fulfilled, any agent can become an effective model.

  6. Multiple Model Approaches to Modelling and Control,

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    appeal in building systems which operate robustly over a wide range of operating conditions by decomposing them into a number of simplerlinear modelling or control problems, even for nonlinear modelling or control problems. This appeal has been a factor in the development of increasinglypopular `local...... to problems in the process industries, biomedical applications and autonomoussystems. The successful application of the ideas to demanding problems is already encouraging, but creative development of the basic framework isneeded to better allow the integration of human knowledge with automated learning....... The underlying question is `How should we partition the system - what is `local'?'. This book presents alternative ways of bringing submodels together,which lead to varying levels of performance and insight. Some are further developed for autonomous learning of parameters from data, while others havefocused...

  7. Design of Xen Hybrid Multiple Police Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Lin, Renhao; Zhu, Xianwei

    2017-10-01

    Virtualization Technology has attracted more and more attention. As a popular open-source virtualization tools, XEN is used more and more frequently. Xsm, XEN security model, has also been widespread concern. The safety status classification has not been established in the XSM, and it uses the virtual machine as a managed object to make Dom0 a unique administrative domain that does not meet the minimum privilege. According to these questions, we design a Hybrid multiple police model named SV_HMPMD that organically integrates multiple single security policy models include DTE,RBAC,BLP. It can fullfill the requirement of confidentiality and integrity for security model and use different particle size to different domain. In order to improve BLP’s practicability, the model introduce multi-level security labels. In order to divide the privilege in detail, we combine DTE with RBAC. In order to oversize privilege, we limit the privilege of domain0.

  8. Modelo de error en imágenes comprimidas con wavelets Error Model in Wavelet-compressed Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Puetamán G.

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se presenta la compresión de imágenes a través de la comparación entre el modelo Wavelet y el modelo Fourier, utilizando la minimización de la función de error. El problema que se estudia es específico, consiste en determinar una base {ei} que minimice la función de error entre la imagen original y la recuperada después de la compresión. Es de resaltar que existen muchas aplicaciones, por ejemplo, en medicina o astronomía, en donde no es aceptable ningún deterioro de la imagen porque toda la información contenida, incluso la que se estima como ruido, se considera imprescindible.In this paper we study image compression as a way to compare Wavelet and Fourier models, by minimizing the error function. The particular problem we consider is to determine basis {ei} minimizing the error function between the original image and the recovered one after compression. It is to be noted or remarked that there are many applications in such diverse fields as for example medicine and astronomy, where no image deteriorating is acceptable since even noise is considered essential.

  9. A practical guideline for human error assessment: A causal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, Y. Z.; Barabadi, A.

    2017-12-01

    To meet the availability target and reduce system downtime, effective maintenance have a great importance. However, maintenance performance is greatly affected in complex ways by human factors. Hence, to have an effective maintenance operation, these factors needs to be assessed and quantified. To avoid the inadequacies of traditional human error assessment (HEA) approaches, the application of Bayesian Networks (BN) is gaining popularity. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a HEA framework based on the BN for maintenance operation. The proposed framework aids for assessing the effects of human performance influencing factors on the likelihood of human error during maintenance activities. Further, the paper investigates how operational issues must be considered in system failure-rate analysis, maintenance planning, and prediction of human error in pre- and post-maintenance operations. The goal is to assess how performance monitoring and evaluation of human factors can effect better operation and maintenance.

  10. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one......, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...

  11. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    In geosciences, as well as in astrophysics, direct observations of a studied physical system and objects are not always accessible. Instead, indirect observations have to be used in order to obtain information about the unknown system, which leads to an inverse problem. Such geoscientific inverse....... Finally, the probabilistic formulation provides a means of analyzing uncertainties and potential multiple-scenario solutions to be used for risk assessments in relation to, e.g., reservoir characterization and forecasting. Prior models rely on information from old data sets or expert knowledge in form of......, e.g., training images that expresses structural, lithological, or textural features. Statistics obtained from these types of observations will be referred to as sample models. Geostatistical sampling algorithms use a sample model as input and produce multiple realizations of the model parameters...

  12. Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...

  13. Thermal Error Test and Intelligent Modeling Research on the Spindle of High Speed CNC Machine Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhonghui; Peng, Bin; Xiao, Qijun; Bai, Lu

    2018-03-01

    Thermal error is the main factor affecting the accuracy of precision machining. Through experiments, this paper studies the thermal error test and intelligent modeling for the spindle of vertical high speed CNC machine tools in respect of current research focuses on thermal error of machine tool. Several testing devices for thermal error are designed, of which 7 temperature sensors are used to measure the temperature of machine tool spindle system and 2 displacement sensors are used to detect the thermal error displacement. A thermal error compensation model, which has a good ability in inversion prediction, is established by applying the principal component analysis technology, optimizing the temperature measuring points, extracting the characteristic values closely associated with the thermal error displacement, and using the artificial neural network technology.

  14. Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume; Koster, Randal D. (Editor)

    2014-01-01

    An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

  15. Spindle Thermal Error Optimization Modeling of a Five-axis Machine Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qianjian; Fan, Shuo; Xu, Rufeng; Cheng, Xiang; Zhao, Guoyong; Yang, Jianguo

    2017-05-01

    Aiming at the problem of low machining accuracy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of temperature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC-NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 μm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.

  16. Error assessment of digital elevation models obtained by interpolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean François Mas

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Son pocos los estudios enfocados en la evaluación de los errores inherentes a los modelos digitales de elevación (MDE. Por esta razón se evaluaron los errores de los MDE obtenidos por diferentes metodos de interpolación (ARC/INFO, IDRISI, ILWIS y NEW-MIEL y con diferentes resoluciones, con la finalidad de obtener una representación del relieve más precisa. Esta evaluación de los métodos de interpolación es crucial, si se tiene en cuenta que los MDE son la forma más efectiva de representación de la superficie terrestre para el análisis del terreno y que son ampliamente utilizados en ciencias ambientales. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la resolución, el método de interpolación y los insumos (curvas de nivel solas o con datos de escurrimientos y puntos acotados influyen de manera importante en la magnitud de la cantidad de los errores generados en el MDE. En este estudio, que se llevó a cabo con base en curvas de nivel cada 50 m en una zona montañosa, la resolución más idónea fue de 30 m. El MDE con el menor error (Error Medio Cuadrático −EMC− de 7.3 m fue obtenido con ARC/INFO. Sin embargo, programas sin costo como NEWMIEL o ILWIS permitieron la obtención de resultados con un EMC de 10 m.

  17. Inclusive bit error rate analysis for coherent optical code-division multiple-access system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Gilad; Sadot, Dan

    2002-06-01

    Inclusive noise and bit error rate (BER) analysis for optical code-division multiplexing (OCDM) using coherence techniques is presented. The analysis contains crosstalk calculation of the mutual field variance for different number of users. It is shown that the crosstalk noise depends deeply on the receiver integration time, the laser coherence time, and the number of users. In addition, analytical results of the power fluctuation at the received channel due to the data modulation at the rejected channels are presented. The analysis also includes amplified spontaneous emission (ASE)-related noise effects of in-line amplifiers in a long-distance communication link.

  18. Towards New Empirical Versions of Financial and Accounting Models Corrected for Measurement Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Francois-Éric Racicot; Raymond Théoret; Alain Coen

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new empirical version of the Fama and French Model based on the Hausman (1978) specification test and aimed at discarding measurement errors in the variables. The proposed empirical framework is general enough to be used for correcting other financial and accounting models of measurement errors. Removing measurement errors is important at many levels as information disclosure, corporate governance and protection of investors.

  19. Role-modeling and medical error disclosure: a national survey of trainees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, William; Hickson, Gerald B; Miller, Bonnie M; Doukas, David J; Buckley, John D; Song, John; Sehgal, Niraj L; Deitz, Jennifer; Braddock, Clarence H; Lehmann, Lisa Soleymani

    2014-03-01

    To measure trainees' exposure to negative and positive role-modeling for responding to medical errors and to examine the association between that exposure and trainees' attitudes and behaviors regarding error disclosure. Between May 2011 and June 2012, 435 residents at two large academic medical centers and 1,187 medical students from seven U.S. medical schools received anonymous, electronic questionnaires. The questionnaire asked respondents about (1) experiences with errors, (2) training for responding to errors, (3) behaviors related to error disclosure, (4) exposure to role-modeling for responding to errors, and (5) attitudes regarding disclosure. Using multivariate regression, the authors analyzed whether frequency of exposure to negative and positive role-modeling independently predicted two primary outcomes: (1) attitudes regarding disclosure and (2) nontransparent behavior in response to a harmful error. The response rate was 55% (884/1,622). Training on how to respond to errors had the largest independent, positive effect on attitudes (standardized effect estimate, 0.32, P error (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.64; P errors. Negative role models may be a significant impediment to disclosure among trainees.

  20. Modeling Dynamics of Wikipedia: An Empirical Analysis Using a Vector Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Feng-Jun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a system dynamic model of Wikipedia based on the co-evolution theory, and investigated the interrelationships among topic popularity, group size, collaborative conflict, coordination mechanism, and information quality by using the vector error correction model (VECM. This study provides a useful framework for analyzing the dynamics of Wikipedia and presents a formal exposition of the VECM methodology in the information system research.

  1. Development of an RTK-GPS positioning application with an improved position error model for smartphones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jinsang; Yun, Hongsik; Suh, Yongcheol; Cho, Jeongho; Lee, Dongha

    2012-09-25

    This study developed a smartphone application that provides wireless communication, NRTIP client, and RTK processing features, and which can simplify the Network RTK-GPS system while reducing the required cost. A determination method for an error model in Network RTK measurements was proposed, considering both random and autocorrelation errors, to accurately calculate the coordinates measured by the application using state estimation filters. The performance evaluation of the developed application showed that it could perform high-precision real-time positioning, within several centimeters of error range at a frequency of 20 Hz. A Kalman Filter was applied to the coordinates measured from the application, to evaluate the appropriateness of the determination method for an error model, as proposed in this study. The results were more accurate, compared with those of the existing error model, which only considered the random error.

  2. Error assessment of digital elevation models obtained by interpolation

    OpenAIRE

    Jean François Mas; Azucena Pérez Vega

    2009-01-01

    Son pocos los estudios enfocados en la evaluación de los errores inherentes a los modelos digitales de elevación (MDE). Por esta razón se evaluaron los errores de los MDE obtenidos por diferentes metodos de interpolación (ARC/INFO, IDRISI, ILWIS y NEW-MIEL) y con diferentes resoluciones, con la finalidad de obtener una representación del relieve más precisa. Esta evaluación de los métodos de interpolación es crucial, si se tiene en cuenta que los MDE son la forma más efectiva de representació...

  3. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

    2004-12-01

    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

  4. Analysis of Error Propagation Within Hierarchical Air Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    of the factors (variables), the other variables were fixed at their baseline levels. The red dots with the standard deviation error bars represent...conducted an analysis to determine if the means and variances of MOEs of interest were statistically different by experimental design (Pav, 2015). To do...summarized data. In the summarized data set, we summarize each Design Point (DP) by its mean and standard deviation , over the stochastic replications. The

  5. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  6. Analysis of errors in spectral reconstruction with a Laplace transform pair model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Archer, B.R.; Bushong, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The sensitivity of a Laplace transform pair model for spectral reconstruction to random errors in attenuation measurements of diagnostic x-ray units has been investigated. No spectral deformation or significant alteration resulted from the simulated attenuation errors. It is concluded that the range of spectral uncertainties to be expected from the application of this model is acceptable for most scientific applications. (author)

  7. Potential Hydraulic Modelling Errors Associated with Rheological Data Extrapolation in Laminar Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shadday, Martin A. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    The potential errors associated with the modelling of flows of non-Newtonian slurries through pipes, due to inadequate rheological models and extrapolation outside of the ranges of data bases, are demonstrated. The behaviors of both dilatant and pseudoplastic fluids with yield stresses, and the errors associated with treating them as Bingham plastics, are investigated

  8. Error budget analysis of SCIAMACHY limb ozone profile retrievals using the SCIATRAN model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Rahpoe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive error characterization of SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY limb ozone profiles has been established based upon SCIATRAN transfer model simulations. The study was carried out in order to evaluate the possible impact of parameter uncertainties, e.g. in albedo, stratospheric aerosol optical extinction, temperature, pressure, pointing, and ozone absorption cross section on the limb ozone retrieval. Together with the a posteriori covariance matrix available from the retrieval, total random and systematic errors are defined for SCIAMACHY ozone profiles. Main error sources are the pointing errors, errors in the knowledge of stratospheric aerosol parameters, and cloud interference. Systematic errors are of the order of 7%, while the random error amounts to 10–15% for most of the stratosphere. These numbers can be used for the interpretation of instrument intercomparison and validation of the SCIAMACHY V 2.5 limb ozone profiles in a rigorous manner.

  9. MODELS OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ERRORS PREVENTION IN TERMINAL CONTROL AREAS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this study is to research applied models of air traffic controllers’ errors prevention in terminal control areas (TMA under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework descripting safety events and errors of air traffic controllers connected with the operations in TMA is proposed. Methods: optimisation of terminal control area formal description based on the Threat and Error management model and the TMA network model of air traffic flows. Results: the human factors variables associated with safety events in work of air traffic controllers under uncertainty conditions were obtained. The Threat and Error management model application principles to air traffic controller operations and the TMA network model of air traffic flows were proposed. Discussion: Information processing context for preventing air traffic controller errors, examples of threats in work of air traffic controllers, which are relevant for TMA operations under uncertainty conditions.

  10. Orthogonality of the Mean and Error Distribution in Generalized Linear Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Alan; Rathouz, Paul J

    2017-01-01

    We show that the mean-model parameter is always orthogonal to the error distribution in generalized linear models. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically efficient regardless of whether the error distribution is known completely, known up to a finite vector of parameters, or left completely unspecified, in which case the likelihood is taken to be an appropriate semiparametric likelihood. Moreover, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically independent of the maximum likelihood estimator of the error distribution. This generalizes some well-known results for the special cases of normal, gamma and multinomial regression models, and, perhaps more interestingly, suggests that asymptotically efficient estimation and inferences can always be obtained if the error distribution is nonparametrically estimated along with the mean. In contrast, estimation and inferences using misspecified error distributions or variance functions are generally not efficient.

  11. On low-frequency errors of uniformly modulated filtered white-noise models for ground motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Erdal; Boore, David M.

    1988-01-01

    Low-frequency errors of a commonly used non-stationary stochastic model (uniformly modulated filtered white-noise model) for earthquake ground motions are investigated. It is shown both analytically and by numerical simulation that uniformly modulated filter white-noise-type models systematically overestimate the spectral response for periods longer than the effective duration of the earthquake, because of the built-in low-frequency errors in the model. The errors, which are significant for low-magnitude short-duration earthquakes, can be eliminated by using the filtered shot-noise-type models (i. e. white noise, modulated by the envelope first, and then filtered).

  12. [Error structure and additivity of individual tree biomass model for four natural conifer species in Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogn, Li-hu; Li, Feng-ri; Song, Yu-wen

    2015-03-01

    Based on the biomass data of 276 sampling trees of Pinus koraiensis, Abies nephrolepis, Picea koraiensis and Larix gmelinii, the mono-element and dual-element additive system of biomass equations for the four conifer species was developed. The model error structure (additive vs. multiplicative) of the allometric equation was evaluated using the likelihood analysis, while nonlinear seemly unrelated regression was used to estimate the parameters in the additive system of biomass equations. The results indicated that the assumption of multiplicative error structure was strongly supported for the biomass equations of total and tree components for the four conifer species. Thus, the additive system of log-transformed biomass equations was developed. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra 2) of the additive system of biomass equations for the four conifer species was 0.85-0.99, the mean relative error was between -7.7% and 5.5%, and the mean absolute relative error was less than 30.5%. Adding total tree height in the additive systems of biomass equations could significantly improve model fitting performance and predicting precision, and the biomass equations of total, aboveground and stem were better than biomass equations of root, branch, foliage and crown. The precision of each biomass equation in the additive system varied from 77.0% to 99.7% with a mean value of 92.3% that would be suitable for predicting the biomass of the four natural conifer species.

  13. Integration of Error Compensation of Coordinate Measuring Machines into Feature Measurement: Part I—Model Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roque Calvo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of an error compensation model for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs and its integration into feature measurement is presented. CMMs are widespread and dependable instruments in industry and laboratories for dimensional measurement. From the tip probe sensor to the machine display, there is a complex transformation of probed point coordinates through the geometrical feature model that makes the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty measurement results difficult. Therefore, error compensation is not standardized, conversely to other simpler instruments. Detailed coordinate error compensation models are generally based on CMM as a rigid-body and it requires a detailed mapping of the CMM’s behavior. In this paper a new model type of error compensation is proposed. It evaluates the error from the vectorial composition of length error by axis and its integration into the geometrical measurement model. The non-explained variability by the model is incorporated into the uncertainty budget. Model parameters are analyzed and linked to the geometrical errors and uncertainty of CMM response. Next, the outstanding measurement models of flatness, angle, and roundness are developed. The proposed models are useful for measurement improvement with easy integration into CMM signal processing, in particular in industrial environments where built-in solutions are sought. A battery of implementation tests are presented in Part II, where the experimental endorsement of the model is included.

  14. Integration of Error Compensation of Coordinate Measuring Machines into Feature Measurement: Part I—Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Roque; D’Amato, Roberto; Gómez, Emilio; Domingo, Rosario

    2016-01-01

    The development of an error compensation model for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) and its integration into feature measurement is presented. CMMs are widespread and dependable instruments in industry and laboratories for dimensional measurement. From the tip probe sensor to the machine display, there is a complex transformation of probed point coordinates through the geometrical feature model that makes the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty measurement results difficult. Therefore, error compensation is not standardized, conversely to other simpler instruments. Detailed coordinate error compensation models are generally based on CMM as a rigid-body and it requires a detailed mapping of the CMM’s behavior. In this paper a new model type of error compensation is proposed. It evaluates the error from the vectorial composition of length error by axis and its integration into the geometrical measurement model. The non-explained variability by the model is incorporated into the uncertainty budget. Model parameters are analyzed and linked to the geometrical errors and uncertainty of CMM response. Next, the outstanding measurement models of flatness, angle, and roundness are developed. The proposed models are useful for measurement improvement with easy integration into CMM signal processing, in particular in industrial environments where built-in solutions are sought. A battery of implementation tests are presented in Part II, where the experimental endorsement of the model is included. PMID:27690052

  15. Asymptomatic Independence and Separability in Convariance Structure Models: Implications for Specification Error, Power, and Model Modification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, D; Wenger, R N

    1993-10-01

    This article presents a didactic discussion on the role of asymptotically independent test statistics and separable hypotheses as they pertain to issues of specification error, power, and model modification in the covariance structure modeling framework. Specifically, it is shown that when restricting two parameter estimates on the basis of the multivariate Wald test, the condition of asymptotic independence is necessary but not sufficient for the univariate Wald test statistics to sum to the multivariate Wald test. Instead, what is required is mutual asymptotic independence (MAI) among the univariate tests. This result generalizes to sets of multivariate tests as well. When MA1 is lacking, hypotheses can exhibit transitive relationships. It is also shown that the pattern of zero and non-zero elements of the covariance matrix of the estimates are indicative of mutually asymptotically independent test statistics, separable and transitive hypotheses. The concepts of MAI, separability, and transitivity serve as an explanatory framework for how specification errors are propagated through systems of equations and how power analyses are differentially affected by specification errors of the same magnitude. A small population study supports the major findings of this article. The question of univariate versus multivariate sequential model modification is also addressed. We argue that multivariate sequential model modification strategies do not take into account the typical lack of MA1 thus inadvertently misleading substantive investigators. Instead, a prudent approach favors univariate sequential model modification.

  16. Addressing Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Model Prediction Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, J.; Pool, M.

    2014-12-01

    Model predictions are uncertain because of errors in model parameters, future forcing terms, and model concepts. The latter remain the largest and most difficult to assess source of uncertainty in long term model predictions. We first review existing methods to evaluate conceptual model uncertainty. We argue that they are highly sensitive to the ingenuity of the modeler, in the sense that they rely on the modeler's ability to propose alternative model concepts. Worse, we find that the standard practice of stochastic methods leads to poor, potentially biased and often too optimistic, estimation of actual model errors. This is bad news because stochastic methods are purported to properly represent uncertainty. We contend that the problem does not lie on the stochastic approach itself, but on the way it is applied. Specifically, stochastic inversion methodologies, which demand quantitative information, tend to ignore geological understanding, which is conceptually rich. We illustrate some of these problems with the application to Mar del Plata aquifer, where extensive data are available for nearly a century. Geologically based models, where spatial variability is handled through zonation, yield calibration fits similar to geostatiscally based models, but much better predictions. In fact, the appearance of the stochastic T fields is similar to the geologically based models only in areas with high density of data. We take this finding to illustrate the ability of stochastic models to accommodate many data, but also, ironically, their inability to address conceptual model uncertainty. In fact, stochastic model realizations tend to be too close to the "most likely" one (i.e., they do not really realize the full conceptualuncertainty). The second part of the presentation is devoted to argue that acknowledging model uncertainty may lead to qualitatively different decisions than just working with "most likely" model predictions. Therefore, efforts should concentrate on

  17. Validation of Multiple Tools for Flat Plate Photovoltaic Modeling Against Measured Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, J.; Whitmore, J.; Blair, N.; Dobos, A. P.

    2014-08-01

    This report expands upon a previous work by the same authors, published in the 40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists conference. In this validation study, comprehensive analysis is performed on nine photovoltaic systems for which NREL could obtain detailed performance data and specifications, including three utility-scale systems and six commercial scale systems. Multiple photovoltaic performance modeling tools were used to model these nine systems, and the error of each tool was analyzed compared to quality-controlled measured performance data. This study shows that, excluding identified outliers, all tools achieve annual errors within +/-8% and hourly root mean squared errors less than 7% for all systems. It is further shown using SAM that module model and irradiance input choices can change the annual error with respect to measured data by as much as 6.6% for these nine systems, although all combinations examined still fall within an annual error range of +/-8.5%. Additionally, a seasonal variation in monthly error is shown for all tools. Finally, the effects of irradiance data uncertainty and the use of default loss assumptions on annual error are explored, and two approaches to reduce the error inherent in photovoltaic modeling are proposed.

  18. Improved characterisation and modelling of measurement errors in electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tso, Chak-Hau Michael; Kuras, Oliver; Wilkinson, Paul B.; Uhlemann, Sebastian; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Meldrum, Philip I.; Graham, James; Sherlock, Emma F.; Binley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    Measurement errors can play a pivotal role in geophysical inversion. Most inverse models require users to prescribe or assume a statistical model of data errors before inversion. Wrongly prescribed errors can lead to over- or under-fitting of data; however, the derivation of models of data errors is often neglected. With the heightening interest in uncertainty estimation within hydrogeophysics, better characterisation and treatment of measurement errors is needed to provide improved image appraisal. Here we focus on the role of measurement errors in electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). We have analysed two time-lapse ERT datasets: one contains 96 sets of direct and reciprocal data collected from a surface ERT line within a 24 h timeframe; the other is a two-year-long cross-borehole survey at a UK nuclear site with 246 sets of over 50,000 measurements. Our study includes the characterisation of the spatial and temporal behaviour of measurement errors using autocorrelation and correlation coefficient analysis. We find that, in addition to well-known proportionality effects, ERT measurements can also be sensitive to the combination of electrodes used, i.e. errors may not be uncorrelated as often assumed. Based on these findings, we develop a new error model that allows grouping based on electrode number in addition to fitting a linear model to transfer resistance. The new model explains the observed measurement errors better and shows superior inversion results and uncertainty estimates in synthetic examples. It is robust, because it groups errors together based on the electrodes used to make the measurements. The new model can be readily applied to the diagonal data weighting matrix widely used in common inversion methods, as well as to the data covariance matrix in a Bayesian inversion framework. We demonstrate its application using extensive ERT monitoring datasets from the two aforementioned sites.

  19. Accounting for model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems using a local basis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, J.; Koepke, C.; Elsheikh, A. H.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian solutions to geophysical and hydrological inverse problems are dependent upon a forward process model linking subsurface parameters to measured data, which is typically assumed to be known perfectly in the inversion procedure. However, in order to make the stochastic solution of the inverse problem computationally tractable using, for example, Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods, fast approximations of the forward model are commonly employed. This introduces model error into the problem, which has the potential to significantly bias posterior statistics and hamper data integration efforts if not properly accounted for. Here, we present a new methodology for addressing the issue of model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems that is geared towards the common case where these errors cannot be effectively characterized globally through some parametric statistical distribution or locally based on interpolation between a small number of computed realizations. Rather than focusing on the construction of a global or local error model, we instead work towards identification of the model-error component of the residual through a projection-based approach. In this regard, pairs of approximate and detailed model runs are stored in a dictionary that grows at a specified rate during the MCMC inversion procedure. At each iteration, a local model-error basis is constructed for the current test set of model parameters using the K-nearest neighbour entries in the dictionary, which is then used to separate the model error from the other error sources before computing the likelihood of the proposed set of model parameters. We demonstrate the performance of our technique on the inversion of synthetic crosshole ground-penetrating radar traveltime data for three different subsurface parameterizations of varying complexity. The synthetic data are generated using the eikonal equation, whereas a straight-ray forward model is assumed in the inversion

  20. OOK power model based dynamic error testing for smart electricity meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuewei; Chen, Jingxia; Yuan, Ruiming; Jia, Xiaolu; Zhu, Meng; Jiang, Zhenyu

    2017-02-01

    This paper formulates the dynamic error testing problem for a smart meter, with consideration and investigation of both the testing signal and the dynamic error testing method. To solve the dynamic error testing problems, the paper establishes an on-off-keying (OOK) testing dynamic current model and an OOK testing dynamic load energy (TDLE) model. Then two types of TDLE sequences and three modes of OOK testing dynamic power are proposed. In addition, a novel algorithm, which helps to solve the problem of dynamic electric energy measurement’s traceability, is derived for dynamic errors. Based on the above researches, OOK TDLE sequence generation equipment is developed and a dynamic error testing system is constructed. Using the testing system, five kinds of meters were tested in the three dynamic power modes. The test results show that the dynamic error is closely related to dynamic power mode and the measurement uncertainty is 0.38%.

  1. Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture-recapture studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshizaki, J.; Brownie, C.; Pollock, K.H.; Link, W.A.

    2011-01-01

    Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture-recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  2. A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

    2018-01-15

    Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

  3. Spatial Multiplication Model as an alternative to the Point Model in Neutron Multiplicity Counting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauck, Danielle K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Henzl, Vladimir [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-03-26

    The point model is commonly used in neutron multiplicity counting to relate the correlated neutron detection rates (singles, doubles, triples) to item properties (mass, (α,n) reaction rate and neutron multiplication). The point model assumes that the probability that a neutron will induce fission is a constant across the physical extent of the item. However, in reality, neutrons near the center of an item have a greater probability of inducing fission then items near the edges. As a result, the neutron multiplication has a spatial distribution.

  4. Robust estimation of errors-in-variables models using M-estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Cuiping; Peng, Junhuan

    2017-07-01

    The traditional Errors-in-variables (EIV) models are widely adopted in applied sciences. The EIV model estimators, however, can be highly biased by gross error. This paper focuses on robust estimation in EIV models. A new class of robust estimators, called robust weighted total least squared estimators (RWTLS), is introduced. Robust estimators of the parameters of the EIV models are derived from M-estimators and Lagrange multiplier method. A simulated example is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the presented RWTLS. The result shows that the RWTLS algorithm can indeed resist gross error to achieve a reliable solution.

  5. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...

  6. Maneuver Performance Assessment of the Cassini Spacecraft Through Execution-Error Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Sean

    2014-01-01

    The Cassini spacecraft has executed nearly 300 maneuvers since 1997, providing ample data for execution-error model updates. With maneuvers through 2017, opportunities remain to improve on the models and remove biases identified in maneuver executions. This manuscript focuses on how execution-error models can be used to judge maneuver performance, while providing a means for detecting performance degradation. Additionally, this paper describes Cassini's execution-error model updates in August 2012. An assessment of Cassini's maneuver performance through OTM-368 on January 5, 2014 is also presented.

  7. Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.

    2013-01-01

    When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek

  8. Error modeling and sensitivity analysis of a parallel robot with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuzhen; Xie, Fugui; Liu, Xinjun; Zhou, Yanhua

    2014-07-01

    Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error's influence on the moving platform's pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.

  9. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  10. Ensemble Data Assimilation to Characterize Surface-Layer Errors In Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Joshua; Angevine, Wayne

    2013-04-01

    Experiments with the single-column implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model provide a basis for deducing land-atmosphere coupling errors in the model. Coupling occurs both through heat and moisture fluxes through the land-atmosphere interface and roughness sub-layer, and turbulent heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes through the atmospheric surface layer. This work primarily addresses the turbulent fluxes, which are parameterized following Monin-Obukhov similarity theory applied to the atmospheric surface layer. By combining ensemble data assimilation and parameter estimation, the model error can be characterized. Ensemble data assimilation of 2-m temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, and 10-m wind components, forces the model to follow observations during a month-long simulation for a column over the well-instrumented ARM Central Facility near Lamont, OK. One-hour errors in predicted observations are systematically small but non-zero, and the systematic errors measure bias as a function of local time of day. Analysis increments for state elements nearby (15-m AGL) can be too small or have the wrong sign, indicating systematically biased covariances and model error. Experiments using the ensemble filter to objectively estimate a parameter controlling the thermal land-atmosphere coupling show that the parameter adapts to offset the model errors, but that the errors cannot be eliminated. Results suggest either structural error or further parametric error that may be difficult to estimate. Experiments omitting atypical observations such as soil and flux measurements lead to qualitatively similar deductions, showing potential for assimilating common in-situ observations as an inexpensive framework for deducing and isolating model errors. We finish by presenting recent results from a deeper examination of the second-moment ensemble statistics, which demonstrate the effect of assimilation on the coupling through the stability function in

  11. Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Linlin; Wang, Wenyi; Sedykh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao

    2017-06-30

    Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting.

  12. Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2010-09-14

    We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal series-based, omnibus goodness-of-fit test in this context, where no likelihood function is available or calculated-i.e. all the tests are proposed in the semiparametric model framework. We demonstrate that our tests have optimality properties and computational advantages that are similar to those of the classical score tests in the parametric model framework. The test procedures are applicable to several semiparametric extensions of measurement error models, including when the measurement error distribution is estimated non-parametrically as well as for generalized partially linear models. The performance of the local score-type and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests is demonstrated through simulation studies and analysis of a nutrition data set.

  13. Modeling Input Errors to Improve Uncertainty Estimates for Sediment Transport Model Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, J. Y.; Niemann, J. D.; Greimann, B. P.

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have recently been applied to sediment transport models to assess the uncertainty in the model predictions due to the parameter values. Unfortunately, the existing approaches can only attribute overall uncertainty to the parameters. This limitation is critical because no model can produce accurate forecasts if forced with inaccurate input data, even if the model is well founded in physical theory. In this research, an existing Bayesian method is modified to consider the potential errors in input data during the uncertainty evaluation process. The input error is modeled using Gaussian distributions, and the means and standard deviations are treated as uncertain parameters. The proposed approach is tested by coupling it to the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics - One Dimension (SRH-1D) model and simulating a 23-km reach of the Tachia River in Taiwan. The Wu equation in SRH-1D is used for computing the transport capacity for a bed material load of non-cohesive material. Three types of input data are considered uncertain: (1) the input flowrate at the upstream boundary, (2) the water surface elevation at the downstream boundary, and (3) the water surface elevation at a hydraulic structure in the middle of the reach. The benefits of modeling the input errors in the uncertainty analysis are evaluated by comparing the accuracy of the most likely forecast and the coverage of the observed data by the credible intervals to those of the existing method. The results indicate that the internal boundary condition has the largest uncertainty among those considered. Overall, the uncertainty estimates from the new method are notably different from those of the existing method for both the calibration and forecast periods.

  14. Error modeling and tolerance design of a parallel manipulator with full-circle rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanbing Ni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A method for improving the accuracy of a parallel manipulator with full-circle rotation is systematically investigated in this work via kinematic analysis, error modeling, sensitivity analysis, and tolerance allocation. First, a kinematic analysis of the mechanism is made using the space vector chain method. Using the results as a basis, an error model is formulated considering the main error sources. Position and orientation error-mapping models are established by mathematical transformation of the parallelogram structure characteristics. Second, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the geometric error sources. A global sensitivity evaluation index is proposed to evaluate the contribution of the geometric errors to the accuracy of the end-effector. The analysis results provide a theoretical basis for the allocation of tolerances to the parts of the mechanical design. Finally, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the design of the tolerances can be solved as a nonlinearly constrained optimization problem. A genetic algorithm is applied to carry out the allocation of the manufacturing tolerances of the parts. Accordingly, the tolerance ranges for nine kinds of geometrical error sources are obtained. The achievements made in this work can also be applied to other similar parallel mechanisms with full-circle rotation to improve error modeling and design accuracy.

  15. SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

    1988-02-01

    Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

  16. Support Method of Model Description Error Detection on a Programming Environment for Multi Agent Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itakura, Kota; Hatakeyama, Go; Akiyoshi, Masanori; Komoda, Norihisa

    Recently, there are various proposals on tool for multi-agent simulation. However, in such simulation tools, analysts who do not have programming skill spend a lot of time to develop programs because notation of simulation models is not defined sufficiently and programming language is varied on tools. To solve this problem, a programming environment that defines the notation of simulation model has poposed. In this environment, analysts can design simulation with a graph representation and get the program code without writing programs. However, it is difficult to find errors that cause unintended behavior in simulation. Therefore, we propose a support method as a model debugger which helps users to find errors. The debugger generates candidates of errors, using a user's report of unintended behavior based on “typical report patterns”. Candidates of errors are extracted from “tree structure of error-inducing factors” that consists of source patterns of errors. In this paper, we executed experiments that compare time needed for examinees to find errors. Experimental results show the time to find errors by utilizing our model debugger is shortened.

  17. Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond J.

    2010-05-01

    This paper considers identification and estimation of a general nonlinear Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model using two samples. Both samples consist of a dependent variable, some error-free covariates, and an error-prone covariate, for which the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values; and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. We assume that the regression model of interest - the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the latent true covariate and the error-free covariates - is the same in both samples, but the distributions of the latent true covariates vary with observed error-free discrete covariates. We first show that the general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two samples when both could have nonclassical errors, without either instrumental variables or independence between the two samples. When the two samples are independent and the nonlinear regression model is parameterized, we propose sieve Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) for the parameter of interest, and establish its root-n consistency and asymptotic normality under possible misspecification, and its semiparametric efficiency under correct specification, with easily estimated standard errors. A Monte Carlo simulation and a data application are presented to show the power of the approach.

  18. Differential measurement errors in zero-truncated regression models for count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yih-Huei; Hwang, Wen-Han; Chen, Fei-Yin

    2011-12-01

    Measurement errors in covariates may result in biased estimates in regression analysis. Most methods to correct this bias assume nondifferential measurement errors-i.e., that measurement errors are independent of the response variable. However, in regression models for zero-truncated count data, the number of error-prone covariate measurements for a given observational unit can equal its response count, implying a situation of differential measurement errors. To address this challenge, we develop a modified conditional score approach to achieve consistent estimation. The proposed method represents a novel technique, with efficiency gains achieved by augmenting random errors, and performs well in a simulation study. The method is demonstrated in an ecology application. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with a flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2012-01-01

    distributed error terms across alternatives at the choice stage. This study relaxes the assumption by introducing nested substitution patterns and alternatively random taste heterogeneity at the choice stage, thus equating the structural flexibility of semi-compensatory models to their compensatory...... counterparts. The proposed model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice by students. Results show the feasibility and importance of introducing a flexible error structure into semi-compensatory models....

  20. Dynamic modeling of predictive uncertainty by regression on absolute errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pianosi, F.; Raso, L.

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty of hydrological forecasts represents valuable information for water managers and hydrologists. This explains the popularity of probabilistic models, which provide the entire distribution of the hydrological forecast. Nevertheless, many existing hydrological models are deterministic and

  1. Multiple-membership multiple-classification models for social network and group dependences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranmer, Mark; Steel, David; Browne, William J

    2014-02-01

    The social network literature on network dependences has largely ignored other sources of dependence, such as the school that a student attends, or the area in which an individual lives. The multilevel modelling literature on school and area dependences has, in turn, largely ignored social networks. To bridge this divide, a multiple-membership multiple-classification modelling approach for jointly investigating social network and group dependences is presented. This allows social network and group dependences on individual responses to be investigated and compared. The approach is used to analyse a subsample of the Adolescent Health Study data set from the USA, where the response variable of interest is individual level educational attainment, and the three individual level covariates are sex, ethnic group and age. Individual, network, school and area dependences are accounted for in the analysis. The network dependences can be accounted for by including the network as a classification in the model, using various network configurations, such as ego-nets and cliques. The results suggest that ignoring the network affects the estimates of variation for the classifications that are included in the random part of the model (school, area and individual), as well as having some influence on the point estimates and standard errors of the estimates of regression coefficients for covariates in the fixed part of the model. From a substantive perspective, this approach provides a flexible and practical way of investigating variation in an individual level response due to social network dependences, and estimating the share of variation of an individual response for network, school and area classifications.

  2. On the asymptotic ergodic capacity of FSO links with generalized pointing error model

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Quwaiee, Hessa

    2015-09-11

    Free-space optical (FSO) communication systems are negatively affected by two physical phenomenon, namely, scintillation due to atmospheric turbulence and pointing errors. To quantize the effect of these two factors on FSO system performance, we need an effective mathematical model for them. Scintillations are typically modeled by the log-normal and Gamma-Gamma distributions for weak and strong turbulence conditions, respectively. In this paper, we propose and study a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution. We then derive the asymptotic ergodic capacity of FSO systems under the joint impact of turbulence and generalized pointing error impairments. © 2015 IEEE.

  3. ANALYZING NUMERICAL ERRORS IN DOMAIN HEAT TRANSPORT MODELS USING THE CVBEM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hromadka, T.V.

    1987-01-01

    Besides providing an exact solution for steady-state heat conduction processes (Laplace-Poisson equations), the CVBEM (complex variable boundary element method) can be used for the numerical error analysis of domain model solutions. For problems where soil-water phase change latent heat effects dominate the thermal regime, heat transport can be approximately modeled as a time-stepped steady-state condition in the thawed and frozen regions, respectively. The CVBEM provides an exact solution of the two-dimensional steady-state heat transport problem, and also provides the error in matching the prescribed boundary conditions by the development of a modeling error distribution or an approximate boundary generation.

  4. Error Modelling for Multi-Sensor Measurements in Infrastructure-Free Indoor Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Ruotsalainen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The long-term objective of our research is to develop a method for infrastructure-free simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM and context recognition for tactical situational awareness. Localization will be realized by propagating motion measurements obtained using a monocular camera, a foot-mounted Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU, sonar, and a barometer. Due to the size and weight requirements set by tactical applications, Micro-Electro-Mechanical (MEMS sensors will be used. However, MEMS sensors suffer from biases and drift errors that may substantially decrease the position accuracy. Therefore, sophisticated error modelling and implementation of integration algorithms are key for providing a viable result. Algorithms used for multi-sensor fusion have traditionally been different versions of Kalman filters. However, Kalman filters are based on the assumptions that the state propagation and measurement models are linear with additive Gaussian noise. Neither of the assumptions is correct for tactical applications, especially for dismounted soldiers, or rescue personnel. Therefore, error modelling and implementation of advanced fusion algorithms are essential for providing a viable result. Our approach is to use particle filtering (PF, which is a sophisticated option for integrating measurements emerging from pedestrian motion having non-Gaussian error characteristics. This paper discusses the statistical modelling of the measurement errors from inertial sensors and vision based heading and translation measurements to include the correct error probability density functions (pdf in the particle filter implementation. Then, model fitting is used to verify the pdfs of the measurement errors. Based on the deduced error models of the measurements, particle filtering method is developed to fuse all this information, where the weights of each particle are computed based on the specific models derived. The performance of the developed method is

  5. Accounting for covariate measurement error in a Cox model analysis of recurrence of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K; Mazumdar, S; Stone, R A; Dew, M A; Houck, P R; Reynolds, C F

    2001-01-01

    When a covariate measured with error is used as a predictor in a survival analysis using the Cox model, the parameter estimate is usually biased. In clinical research, covariates measured without error such as treatment procedure or sex are often used in conjunction with a covariate measured with error. In a randomized clinical trial of two types of treatments, we account for the measurement error in the covariate, log-transformed total rapid eye movement (REM) activity counts, in a Cox model analysis of the time to recurrence of major depression in an elderly population. Regression calibration and two variants of a likelihood-based approach are used to account for measurement error. The likelihood-based approach is extended to account for the correlation between replicate measures of the covariate. Using the replicate data decreases the standard error of the parameter estimate for log(total REM) counts while maintaining the bias reduction of the estimate. We conclude that covariate measurement error and the correlation between replicates can affect results in a Cox model analysis and should be accounted for. In the depression data, these methods render comparable results that have less bias than the results when measurement error is ignored.

  6. Propagation of error from parameter constraints in quantitative MRI: Example application of multiple spin echo T2 mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford, Christopher L; Does, Mark D

    2018-02-01

    Quantitative MRI may require correcting for nuisance parameters which can or must be constrained to independently measured or assumed values. The noise and/or bias in these constraints propagate to fitted parameters. For example, the case of refocusing pulse flip angle constraint in multiple spin echo T 2 mapping is explored. An analytical expression for the mean-squared error of a parameter of interest was derived as a function of the accuracy and precision of an independent estimate of a nuisance parameter. The expression was validated by simulations and then used to evaluate the effects of flip angle (θ) constraint on the accuracy and precision of T⁁2 for a variety of multi-echo T 2 mapping protocols. Constraining θ improved T⁁2 precision when the θ-map signal-to-noise ratio was greater than approximately one-half that of the first spin echo image. For many practical scenarios, constrained fitting was calculated to reduce not just the variance but the full mean-squared error of T⁁2, for bias in θ⁁≲6%. The analytical expression derived in this work can be applied to inform experimental design in quantitative MRI. The example application to T 2 mapping provided specific cases, depending on θ⁁ accuracy and precision, in which θ⁁ measurement and constraint would be beneficial to T⁁2 variance or mean-squared error. Magn Reson Med 79:673-682, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  7. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  8. Specification test for Markov models with measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonjin; Zhao, Zhibiao

    2014-09-01

    Most existing works on specification testing assume that we have direct observations from the model of interest. We study specification testing for Markov models based on contaminated observations. The evolving model dynamics of the unobservable Markov chain is implicitly coded into the conditional distribution of the observed process. To test whether the underlying Markov chain follows a parametric model, we propose measuring the deviation between nonparametric and parametric estimates of conditional regression functions of the observed process. Specifically, we construct a nonparametric simultaneous confidence band for conditional regression functions and check whether the parametric estimate is contained within the band.

  9. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. Impact of sensor and measurement timing errors on model-based insulin sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretty, Christopher G; Signal, Matthew; Fisk, Liam; Penning, Sophie; Le Compte, Aaron; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Desaive, Thomas; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2014-05-01

    A model-based insulin sensitivity parameter (SI) is often used in glucose-insulin system models to define the glycaemic response to insulin. As a parameter identified from clinical data, insulin sensitivity can be affected by blood glucose (BG) sensor error and measurement timing error, which can subsequently impact analyses or glycaemic variability during control. This study assessed the impact of both measurement timing and BG sensor errors on identified values of SI and its hour-to-hour variability within a common type of glucose-insulin system model. Retrospective clinical data were used from 270 patients admitted to the Christchurch Hospital ICU between 2005 and 2007 to identify insulin sensitivity profiles. We developed error models for the Abbott Optium Xceed glucometer and measurement timing from clinical data. The effect of these errors on the re-identified insulin sensitivity was investigated by Monte-Carlo analysis. The results of the study show that timing errors in isolation have little clinically significant impact on identified SI level or variability. The clinical impact of changes to SI level induced by combined sensor and timing errors is likely to be significant during glycaemic control. Identified values of SI were mostly (90th percentile) within 29% of the true value when influenced by both sources of error. However, these effects may be overshadowed by physiological factors arising from the critical condition of the patients or other under-modelled or un-modelled dynamics. Thus, glycaemic control protocols that are designed to work with data from glucometers need to be robust to these errors and not be too aggressive in dosing insulin. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Mixed-effects location and scale Tobit joint models for heterogeneous longitudinal data with skewness, detection limits, and measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tao

    2017-01-01

    The joint modeling of mean and variance for longitudinal data is an active research area. This type of model has the advantage of accounting for heteroscedasticity commonly observed in between and within subject variations. Most of researches focus on improving the estimating efficiency but ignore many data features frequently encountered in practice. In this article, we develop a mixed-effects location scale joint model that concurrently accounts for longitudinal data with multiple features. Specifically, our joint model handles heterogeneity, skewness, limit of detection, measurement errors in covariates which are typically observed in the collection of longitudinal data from many studies. We employ a Bayesian approach for making inference on the joint model. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS study. Simulation studies are performed to assess the performance of the proposed method. Alternative models under different conditions are compared.

  12. Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazumdar Soumya

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

  13. Correction for Measurement Error from Genotyping-by-Sequencing in Genomic Variance and Genomic Prediction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashraf, Bilal; Janss, Luc; Jensen, Just

    sample). The GBSeq data can be used directly in genomic models in the form of individual SNP allele-frequency estimates (e.g., reference reads/total reads per polymorphic site per individual), but is subject to measurement error due to the low sequencing depth per individual. Due to technical reasons....... In the current work we show how the correction for measurement error in GBSeq can also be applied in whole genome genomic variance and genomic prediction models. Bayesian whole-genome random regression models are proposed to allow implementation of large-scale SNP-based models with a per-SNP correction...... for measurement error. We show correct retrieval of genomic explained variance, and improved genomic prediction when accounting for the measurement error in GBSeq data...

  14. Robust anti-synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems based on multiple-kernel least squares support vector machine modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qiang; Ren Xuemei; Na Jing

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: Model uncertainty of the system is approximated by multiple-kernel LSSVM. Approximation errors and disturbances are compensated in the controller design. Asymptotical anti-synchronization is achieved with model uncertainty and disturbances. Abstract: In this paper, we propose a robust anti-synchronization scheme based on multiple-kernel least squares support vector machine (MK-LSSVM) modeling for two uncertain chaotic systems. The multiple-kernel regression, which is a linear combination of basic kernels, is designed to approximate system uncertainties by constructing a multiple-kernel Lagrangian function and computing the corresponding regression parameters. Then, a robust feedback control based on MK-LSSVM modeling is presented and an improved update law is employed to estimate the unknown bound of the approximation error. The proposed control scheme can guarantee the asymptotic convergence of the anti-synchronization errors in the presence of system uncertainties and external disturbances. Numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Contaminant point source localization error estimates as functions of data quantity and model quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Scott K; Vesselinov, Velimir V

    2016-10-01

    We develop empirically-grounded error envelopes for localization of a point contamination release event in the saturated zone of a previously uncharacterized heterogeneous aquifer into which a number of plume-intercepting wells have been drilled. We assume that flow direction in the aquifer is known exactly and velocity is known to within a factor of two of our best guess from well observations prior to source identification. Other aquifer and source parameters must be estimated by interpretation of well breakthrough data via the advection-dispersion equation. We employ high performance computing to generate numerous random realizations of aquifer parameters and well locations, simulate well breakthrough data, and then employ unsupervised machine optimization techniques to estimate the most likely spatial (or space-time) location of the source. Tabulating the accuracy of these estimates from the multiple realizations, we relate the size of 90% and 95% confidence envelopes to the data quantity (number of wells) and model quality (fidelity of ADE interpretation model to actual concentrations in a heterogeneous aquifer with channelized flow). We find that for purely spatial localization of the contaminant source, increased data quantities can make up for reduced model quality. For space-time localization, we find similar qualitative behavior, but significantly degraded spatial localization reliability and less improvement from extra data collection. Since the space-time source localization problem is much more challenging, we also tried a multiple-initial-guess optimization strategy. This greatly enhanced performance, but gains from additional data collection remained limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. A novel multitemporal insar model for joint estimation of deformation rates and orbital errors

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Lei

    2014-06-01

    Orbital errors, characterized typically as longwavelength artifacts, commonly exist in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery as a result of inaccurate determination of the sensor state vector. Orbital errors degrade the precision of multitemporal InSAR products (i.e., ground deformation). Although research on orbital error reduction has been ongoing for nearly two decades and several algorithms for reducing the effect of the errors are already in existence, the errors cannot always be corrected efficiently and reliably. We propose a novel model that is able to jointly estimate deformation rates and orbital errors based on the different spatialoral characteristics of the two types of signals. The proposed model is able to isolate a long-wavelength ground motion signal from the orbital error even when the two types of signals exhibit similar spatial patterns. The proposed algorithm is efficient and requires no ground control points. In addition, the method is built upon wrapped phases of interferograms, eliminating the need of phase unwrapping. The performance of the proposed model is validated using both simulated and real data sets. The demo codes of the proposed model are also provided for reference. © 2013 IEEE.

  17. Model-based monitoring of rotors with multiple coexisting faults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossner, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring systems are applied to many rotors, but only few monitoring systems can separate coexisting errors and identify their quantity. This research project solves this problem using a combination of signal-based and model-based monitoring. The signal-based part performs a pre-selection of possible errors; these errors are further separated with model-based methods. This approach is demonstrated for the errors unbalance, bow, stator-fixed misalignment, rotor-fixed misalignment and roundness errors. For the model-based part, unambiguous error definitions and models are set up. The Ritz approach reduces the model order and therefore speeds up the diagnosis. Identification algorithms are developed for the different rotor faults. Hereto, reliable damage indicators and proper sub steps of the diagnosis have to be defined. For several monitoring problems, measuring both deflection and bearing force is very useful. The monitoring system is verified by experiments on an academic rotor test rig. The interpretation of the measurements requires much knowledge concerning the dynamics of the rotor. Due to the model-based approach, the system can separate errors with similar signal patterns and identify bow and roundness error online at operation speed. [de

  18. On the Asymptotic Capacity of Dual-Aperture FSO Systems with a Generalized Pointing Error Model

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Quwaiee, Hessa

    2016-06-28

    Free-space optical (FSO) communication systems are negatively affected by two physical phenomenon, namely, scintillation due to atmospheric turbulence and pointing errors. To quantify the effect of these two factors on FSO system performance, we need an effective mathematical model for them. In this paper, we propose and study a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution. We then derive a generic expression of the asymptotic capacity of FSO systems under the joint impact of turbulence and generalized pointing error impairments. Finally, the asymptotic channel capacity formula are extended to quantify the FSO systems performance with selection and switched-and-stay diversity.

  19. Error statistics of hidden Markov model and hidden Boltzmann model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newberg Lee A

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hidden Markov models and hidden Boltzmann models are employed in computational biology and a variety of other scientific fields for a variety of analyses of sequential data. Whether the associated algorithms are used to compute an actual probability or, more generally, an odds ratio or some other score, a frequent requirement is that the error statistics of a given score be known. What is the chance that random data would achieve that score or better? What is the chance that a real signal would achieve a given score threshold? Results Here we present a novel general approach to estimating these false positive and true positive rates that is significantly more efficient than are existing general approaches. We validate the technique via an implementation within the HMMER 3.0 package, which scans DNA or protein sequence databases for patterns of interest, using a profile-HMM. Conclusion The new approach is faster than general naïve sampling approaches, and more general than other current approaches. It provides an efficient mechanism by which to estimate error statistics for hidden Markov model and hidden Boltzmann model results.

  20. Model Pembelajaran Berbasis Penstimulasian Multiple Intelligences Siswa

    OpenAIRE

    Edy Legowo

    2017-01-01

    Tulisan ini membahas mengenai penerapan teori multiple intelligences dalam pembelajaran di sekolah. Pembahasan diawali dengan menguraikan perkembangan konsep inteligensi dan multiple intelligences. Diikuti dengan menjelaskan dampak teori multiple intelligences dalam bidang pendidikan dan pembelajaran di sekolah. Bagian selanjutnya menguraikan tentang implementasi teori multiple intelligences dalam praktik pembelajaran di kelas yaitu bagaimana pemberian pengalaman belajar siswa yang difasilita...

  1. An Enhanced MEMS Error Modeling Approach Based on Nu-Support Vector Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Bhatt

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS-based inertial sensors have made possible the development of a civilian land vehicle navigation system by offering a low-cost solution. However, the accurate modeling of the MEMS sensor errors is one of the most challenging tasks in the design of low-cost navigation systems. These sensors exhibit significant errors like biases, drift, noises; which are negligible for higher grade units. Different conventional techniques utilizing the Gauss Markov model and neural network method have been previously utilized to model the errors. However, Gauss Markov model works unsatisfactorily in the case of MEMS units due to the presence of high inherent sensor errors. On the other hand, modeling the random drift utilizing Neural Network (NN is time consuming, thereby affecting its real-time implementation. We overcome these existing drawbacks by developing an enhanced Support Vector Machine (SVM based error model. Unlike NN, SVMs do not suffer from local minimisation or over-fitting problems and delivers a reliable global solution. Experimental results proved that the proposed SVM approach reduced the noise standard deviation by 10–35% for gyroscopes and 61–76% for accelerometers. Further, positional error drifts under static conditions improved by 41% and 80% in comparison to NN and GM approaches.

  2. Sensitivity, Error and Uncertainty Quantification: Interfacing Models at Different Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krstic, Predrag S.

    2014-01-01

    Discussion on accuracy of AMO data to be used in the plasma modeling codes for astrophysics and nuclear fusion applications, including plasma-material interfaces (PMI), involves many orders of magnitude of energy, spatial and temporal scales. Thus, energies run from tens of K to hundreds of millions of K, temporal and spatial scales go from fs to years and from nm’s to m’s and more, respectively. The key challenge for the theory and simulation in this field is the consistent integration of all processes and scales, i.e. an “integrated AMO science” (IAMO). The principal goal of the IAMO science is to enable accurate studies of interactions of electrons, atoms, molecules, photons, in many-body environment, including complex collision physics of plasma-material interfaces, leading to the best decisions and predictions. However, the accuracy requirement for a particular data strongly depends on the sensitivity of the respective plasma modeling applications to these data, which stresses a need for immediate sensitivity analysis feedback of the plasma modeling and material design communities. Thus, the data provision to the plasma modeling community is a “two-way road” as long as the accuracy of the data is considered, requiring close interactions of the AMO and plasma modeling communities.

  3. State-Space Analysis of Model Error: A Probabilistic Parameter Estimation Framework with Spatial Analysis of Variance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    atmospheric models and the chaotic growth of initial-condition (IC) error. The aim of our work is to provide new methods that begin to systematically disentangle the model inadequacy signal from the initial condition error signal.

  4. Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; VanNorman, John; Siemers, Paul M.; Schoenenberger, Mark; Munk, Michelle M.

    2014-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

  5. Correction of confidence intervals in excess relative risk models using Monte Carlo dosimetry systems with shared errors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuo Zhang

    Full Text Available In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose, a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters.

  6. Correction of confidence intervals in excess relative risk models using Monte Carlo dosimetry systems with shared errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Dale L.; Sokolnikov, Mikhail; Napier, Bruce A.; Degteva, Marina; Moroz, Brian; Vostrotin, Vadim; Shiskina, Elena; Birchall, Alan; Stram, Daniel O.

    2017-01-01

    In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR) models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose), a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS) and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters. PMID:28369141

  7. The importance of time-stepping errors in ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P. D.

    2011-12-01

    Many ocean models use leapfrog time stepping. The Robert-Asselin (RA) filter is usually applied after each leapfrog step, to control the computational mode. However, it will be shown in this presentation that the RA filter generates very large amounts of numerical diapycnal mixing. In some ocean models, the numerical diapycnal mixing from the RA filter is as large as the physical diapycnal mixing. This lowers our confidence in the fidelity of the simulations. In addition to the above problem, the RA filter also damps the physical solution and degrades the numerical accuracy. These two concomitant problems occur because the RA filter does not conserve the mean state, averaged over the three time slices on which it operates. The presenter has recently proposed a simple modification to the RA filter, which does conserve the three-time-level mean state. The modified filter has become known as the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter. When used in conjunction with the leapfrog scheme, the RAW filter eliminates the numerical damping of the physical solution and increases the amplitude accuracy by two orders, yielding third-order accuracy. The phase accuracy is unaffected and remains second-order. The RAW filter can easily be incorporated into existing models of the ocean, typically via the insertion of just a single line of code. Better simulations are obtained, at almost no additional computational expense. Results will be shown from recent implementations of the RAW filter in various ocean models. For example, in the UK Met Office Hadley Centre ocean model, sea-surface temperature and sea-ice biases in the North Atlantic Ocean are found to be reduced. These improvements are encouraging for the use of the RAW filter in other ocean models.

  8. Error Modeling and Design Optimization of Parallel Manipulators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei

    challenges due to their highly nonlinear behaviors, thus, the parameter and performance analysis, especially the accuracy and stiness, are particularly important. Toward the requirements of robotic technology such as light weight, compactness, high accuracy and low energy consumption, utilizing optimization...... theory and virtual spring approach, a general kinetostatic model of the spherical parallel manipulators is developed and validated with Finite Element approach. This model is applied to the stiness analysis of a special spherical parallel manipulator with unlimited rolling motion and the obtained stiness...

  9. A Nonlinear Multiparameters Temperature Error Modeling and Compensation of POS Applied in Airborne Remote Sensing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianli Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The position and orientation system (POS is a key equipment for airborne remote sensing systems, which provides high-precision position, velocity, and attitude information for various imaging payloads. Temperature error is the main source that affects the precision of POS. Traditional temperature error model is single temperature parameter linear function, which is not sufficient for the higher accuracy requirement of POS. The traditional compensation method based on neural network faces great problem in the repeatability error under different temperature conditions. In order to improve the precision and generalization ability of the temperature error compensation for POS, a nonlinear multiparameters temperature error modeling and compensation method based on Bayesian regularization neural network was proposed. The temperature error of POS was analyzed and a nonlinear multiparameters model was established. Bayesian regularization method was used as the evaluation criterion, which further optimized the coefficients of the temperature error. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve temperature environmental adaptability and precision. The developed POS had been successfully applied in airborne TSMFTIS remote sensing system for the first time, which improved the accuracy of the reconstructed spectrum by 47.99%.

  10. Modeling the Error of the Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite Glucose Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagi, Lyvia; Ramkissoon, Charrise M; Facchinetti, Andrea; Leal, Yenny; Vehi, Josep

    2017-06-12

    Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) are prone to inaccuracy due to time lags, sensor drift, calibration errors, and measurement noise. The aim of this study is to derive the model of the error of the second generation Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite (ENL) sensor and compare it with the Dexcom SEVEN PLUS (7P), G4 PLATINUM (G4P), and advanced G4 for Artificial Pancreas studies (G4AP) systems. An enhanced methodology to a previously employed technique was utilized to dissect the sensor error into several components. The dataset used included 37 inpatient sessions in 10 subjects with type 1 diabetes (T1D), in which CGMs were worn in parallel and blood glucose (BG) samples were analyzed every 15 ± 5 min Calibration error and sensor drift of the ENL sensor was best described by a linear relationship related to the gain and offset. The mean time lag estimated by the model is 9.4 ± 6.5 min. The overall average mean absolute relative difference (MARD) of the ENL sensor was 11.68 ± 5.07% Calibration error had the highest contribution to total error in the ENL sensor. This was also reported in the 7P, G4P, and G4AP. The model of the ENL sensor error will be useful to test the in silico performance of CGM-based applications, i.e., the artificial pancreas, employing this kind of sensor.

  11. Performances of estimators of linear auto-correlated error model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The performances of five estimators of linear models with autocorrelated disturbance terms are compared when the independent variable is exponential. The results reveal that for both small and large samples, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) compares favourably with the Generalized least Squares (GLS) estimators in ...

  12. Aligned rank tests for the linear model with heteroscedastic errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Akritas, Michael G.

    1993-01-01

    We consider the problem of testing subhypotheses in a heteroscedastic linear regression model. The proposed test statistics are based on the ranks of scaled residuals obtained under the null hypothesis. Any estimator that is n -consistent under the null hypothesis can be used to form the residuals.

  13. Measurement system and model for simultaneously measuring 6DOF geometric errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yuqiong; Zhang, Bin; Feng, Qibo

    2017-09-04

    A measurement system to simultaneously measure six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) geometric errors is proposed. The measurement method is based on a combination of mono-frequency laser interferometry and laser fiber collimation. A simpler and more integrated optical configuration is designed. To compensate for the measurement errors introduced by error crosstalk, element fabrication error, laser beam drift, and nonparallelism of two measurement beam, a unified measurement model, which can improve the measurement accuracy, is deduced and established using the ray-tracing method. A numerical simulation using the optical design software Zemax is conducted, and the results verify the correctness of the model. Several experiments are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed system and measurement model.

  14. Design of roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error for cylindrical components with large radius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chuanzhi; Wang, Lei; Tan, Jiubin; Zhao, Bo; Tang, Yangchao

    2016-02-01

    The paper designs a roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error, which takes eccentricity, probe offset, radius of tip head of probe, and tilt error into account for roundness measurement of cylindrical components. The effects of the systematic errors and radius of components are analysed in the roundness measurement. The proposed method is built on the instrument with a high precision rotating spindle. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experiment with the standard cylindrical component, which is measured on a roundness measuring machine. Compared to the traditional limacon measurement model, the accuracy of roundness measurement can be increased by about 2.2 μm using the proposed roundness measurement model for the object with a large radius of around 37 mm. The proposed method can improve the accuracy of roundness measurement and can be used for error separation, calibration, and comparison, especially for cylindrical components with a large radius.

  15. Complete Systematic Error Model of SSR for Sensor Registration in ATC Surveillance Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarama, Ángel J; López-Araquistain, Jaime; Miguel, Gonzalo de; Besada, Juan A

    2017-09-21

    In this paper, a complete and rigorous mathematical model for secondary surveillance radar systematic errors (biases) is developed. The model takes into account the physical effects systematically affecting the measurement processes. The azimuth biases are calculated from the physical error of the antenna calibration and the errors of the angle determination dispositive. Distance bias is calculated from the delay of the signal produced by the refractivity index of the atmosphere, and from clock errors, while the altitude bias is calculated taking into account the atmosphere conditions (pressure and temperature). It will be shown, using simulated and real data, that adapting a classical bias estimation process to use the complete parametrized model results in improved accuracy in the bias estimation.

  16. Using SMAP to identify structural errors in hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crow, W. T.; Reichle, R. H.; Chen, F.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Despite decades of effort, and the development of progressively more complex models, there continues to be underlying uncertainty regarding the representation of basic water and energy balance processes in land surface models. Soil moisture occupies a central conceptual position between atmosphere forcing of the land surface and resulting surface water fluxes. As such, direct observations of soil moisture are potentially of great value for identifying and correcting fundamental structural problems affecting these models. However, to date, this potential has not yet been realized using satellite-based retrieval products. Using soil moisture data sets produced by the NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive mission, this presentation will explore the use of the remotely-sensed soil moisture data products as a constraint to reject certain types of surface runoff parameterizations within a land surface model. Results will demonstrate that the precision of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone soil moisture product allows for the robust sampling of correlation statistics describing the true strength of the relationship between pre-storm soil moisture and subsequent storm-scale runoff efficiency (i.e., total storm flow divided by total rainfall both in units of depth). For a set of 16 basins located in the South-Central United States, we will use these sampled correlations to demonstrate that so-called "infiltration-excess" runoff parameterizations under predict the importance of pre-storm soil moisture for determining storm-scale runoff efficiency. To conclude, we will discuss prospects for leveraging this insight to improve short-term hydrologic forecasting and additional avenues for SMAP soil moisture products to provide process-level insight for hydrologic modelers.

  17. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  18. Multiple Temperature Model for Near Continuum Flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    XU, Kun; Liu, Hongwei; Jiang, Jianzheng

    2007-01-01

    In the near continuum flow regime, the flow may have different translational temperatures in different directions. It is well known that for increasingly rarefied flow fields, the predictions from continuum formulation, such as the Navier-Stokes equations, lose accuracy. These inaccuracies may be partially due to the single temperature assumption in the Navier-Stokes equations. Here, based on the gas-kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK) equation, a multitranslational temperature model is proposed and used in the flow calculations. In order to fix all three translational temperatures, two constraints are additionally proposed to model the energy exchange in different directions. Based on the multiple temperature assumption, the Navier-Stokes relation between the stress and strain is replaced by the temperature relaxation term, and the Navier-Stokes assumption is recovered only in the limiting case when the flow is close to the equilibrium with the same temperature in different directions. In order to validate the current model, both the Couette and Poiseuille flows are studied in the transition flow regime

  19. Model Pembelajaran Berbasis Penstimulasian Multiple Intelligences Siswa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edy Legowo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tulisan ini membahas mengenai penerapan teori multiple intelligences dalam pembelajaran di sekolah. Pembahasan diawali dengan menguraikan perkembangan konsep inteligensi dan multiple intelligences. Diikuti dengan menjelaskan dampak teori multiple intelligences dalam bidang pendidikan dan pembelajaran di sekolah. Bagian selanjutnya menguraikan tentang implementasi teori multiple intelligences dalam praktik pembelajaran di kelas yaitu bagaimana pemberian pengalaman belajar siswa yang difasilitasi guru dapat menstimulasi multiple intelligences siswa. Evaluasi hasil belajar siswa dari pandangan penerapan teori multiple intelligences seharusnya dilakukan menggunakan authentic assessment dan portofolio yang lebih memfasilitasi para siswa mengungkapkan atau mengaktualisasikan hasil belajarnya melalui berbagai cara sesuai dengan kekuatan jenis inteligensinya.

  20. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  1. Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2012-01-01

    A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...

  2. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    -response model and the utility-based choice by alternatively (i) a nested-logit model and (ii) an error-component logit. In order to test the suggested methodology, the model was estimated for a sample of 1,893 ranked choices and respective threshold values from 631 students who participated in a web-based two...

  3. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  4. A Temperature Sensor Clustering Method for Thermal Error Modeling of Heavy Milling Machine Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengchun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A clustering method is an effective way to select the proper temperature sensor location for thermal error modeling of machine tools. In this paper, a new temperature sensor clustering method is proposed. By analyzing the characteristics of the temperature of the sensors in a heavy floor-type milling machine tool, an indicator involving both the Euclidean distance and the correlation coefficient was proposed to reflect the differences between temperature sensors, and the indicator was expressed by a distance matrix to be used for hierarchical clustering. Then, the weight coefficient in the distance matrix and the number of the clusters (groups were optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA, and the fitness function of the GA was also rebuilt by establishing the thermal error model at one rotation speed, then deriving its accuracy at two different rotation speeds with a temperature disturbance. Thus, the parameters for clustering, as well as the final selection of the temperature sensors, were derived. Finally, the method proposed in this paper was verified on a machine tool. According to the selected temperature sensors, a thermal error model of the machine tool was established and used to predict the thermal error. The results indicate that the selected temperature sensors can accurately predict thermal error at different rotation speeds, and the proposed temperature sensor clustering method for sensor selection is expected to be used for the thermal error modeling for other machine tools.

  5. Wind Power Prediction Based on LS-SVM Model with Error Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As conventional energy sources are non-renewable, the world's major countries are investing heavily in renewable energy research. Wind power represents the development trend of future energy, but the intermittent and volatility of wind energy are the main reasons that leads to the poor accuracy of wind power prediction. However, by analyzing the error level at different time points, it can be found that the errors of adjacent time are often approximately the same, the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM model with error correction is used to predict the wind power in this paper. According to the simulation of wind power data of two wind farms, the proposed method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of wind power, and the error distribution is concentrated almost without deviation. The improved method proposed in this paper takes into account the error correction process of the model, which improved the prediction accuracy of the traditional model (RBF, Elman, LS-SVM. Compared with the single LS-SVM prediction model in this paper, the mean absolute error of the proposed method had decreased by 52 percent. The research work in this paper will be helpful to the reasonable arrangement of dispatching operation plan, the normal operation of the wind farm and the large-scale development as well as fully utilization of renewable energy resources.

  6. A Stable Clock Error Model Using Coupled First and Second Order Gauss-Markov Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Russell; Lee, Taesul

    2008-01-01

    Long data outages may occur in applications of global navigation satellite system technology to orbit determination for missions that spend significant fractions of their orbits above the navigation satellite constellation(s). Current clock error models based on the random walk idealization may not be suitable in these circumstances, since the covariance of the clock errors may become large enough to overflow flight computer arithmetic. A model that is stable, but which approximates the existing models over short time horizons is desirable. A coupled first- and second-order Gauss-Markov process is such a model.

  7. Model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error with application to logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonaccorsi, John P; Romeo, Giovanni; Thoresen, Magne

    2018-03-01

    When fitting regression models, measurement error in any of the predictors typically leads to biased coefficients and incorrect inferences. A plethora of methods have been proposed to correct for this. Obtaining standard errors and confidence intervals using the corrected estimators can be challenging and, in addition, there is concern about remaining bias in the corrected estimators. The bootstrap, which is one option to address these problems, has received limited attention in this context. It has usually been employed by simply resampling observations, which, while suitable in some situations, is not always formally justified. In addition, the simple bootstrap does not allow for estimating bias in non-linear models, including logistic regression. Model-based bootstrapping, which can potentially estimate bias in addition to being robust to the original sampling or whether the measurement error variance is constant or not, has received limited attention. However, it faces challenges that are not present in handling regression models with no measurement error. This article develops new methods for model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error in logistic regression with replicate measures. The methodology is illustrated using two examples, and a series of simulations are carried out to assess and compare the simple and model-based bootstrap methods, as well as other standard methods. While not always perfect, the model-based approaches offer some distinct improvements over the other methods. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Direction of Effects in Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Wolfgang; von Eye, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies analyzed asymmetric properties of the Pearson correlation coefficient using higher than second order moments. These asymmetric properties can be used to determine the direction of dependence in a linear regression setting (i.e., establish which of two variables is more likely to be on the outcome side) within the framework of cross-sectional observational data. Extant approaches are restricted to the bivariate regression case. The present contribution extends the direction of dependence methodology to a multiple linear regression setting by analyzing distributional properties of residuals of competing multiple regression models. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the third central moments of estimated regression residuals can be used to decide upon direction of effects. In addition, three different approaches for statistical inference are discussed: a combined D'Agostino normality test, a skewness difference test, and a bootstrap difference test. Type I error and power of the procedures are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations, and an empirical example is provided for illustrative purposes. In the discussion, issues concerning the quality of psychological data, possible extensions of the proposed methods to the fourth central moment of regression residuals, and potential applications are addressed.

  9. Alternatives to accuracy and bias metrics based on percentage errors for radiation belt modeling applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morley, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This report reviews existing literature describing forecast accuracy metrics, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. We then review how the most common of these metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), has been applied in recent radiation belt modeling literature. Finally, we describe metrics based on the ratios of predicted to observed values (the accuracy ratio) that address the drawbacks inherent in using MAPE. Specifically, we define and recommend the median log accuracy ratio as a measure of bias and the median symmetric accuracy as a measure of accuracy.

  10. 3D CMM strain-gauge triggering probe error characteristics modeling using fuzzy logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achiche, Sofiane; Wozniak, A; Fan, Zhun

    2008-01-01

    FKBs based on two optimization paradigms are used for the reconstruction of the direction- dependent probe error w. The angles beta and gamma are used as input variables of the FKBs; they describe the spatial direction of probe triggering. The learning algorithm used to generate the FKBs is a real......The error values of CMMs depends on the probing direction; hence its spatial variation is a key part of the probe inaccuracy. This paper presents genetically-generated fuzzy knowledge bases (FKBs) to model the spatial error characteristics of a CMM module-changing probe. Two automatically generated...

  11. 3D CMM Strain-Gauge Triggering Probe Error Characteristics Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achiche, Sofiane; Wozniak, Adam; Fan, Zhun

    2008-01-01

    FKBs based on two optimization paradigms are used for the reconstruction of the directiondependent probe error w. The angles β and γ are used as input variables of the FKBs; they describe the spatial direction of probe triggering. The learning algorithm used to generate the FKBs is a real/ binary like......The error values of CMMs depends on the probing direction; hence its spatial variation is a key part of the probe inaccuracy. This paper presents genetically-generated fuzzy knowledge bases (FKBs) to model the spatial error characteristics of a CMM module-changing probe. Two automatically generated...

  12. Error Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Five-Axis Machine Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjie Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Geometric error modeling and its sensitivity analysis are carried out in this paper, which is helpful for precision design of machine tools. Screw theory and rigid body kinematics are used to establish the error model of an RRTTT-type five-axis machine tool, which enables the source errors affecting the compensable and uncompensable pose accuracy of the machine tool to be explicitly separated, thereby providing designers and/or field engineers with an informative guideline for the accuracy improvement by suitable measures, that is, component tolerancing in design, manufacturing, and assembly processes, and error compensation. The sensitivity analysis method is proposed, and the sensitivities of compensable and uncompensable pose accuracies are analyzed. The analysis results will be used for the precision design of the machine tool.

  13. Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.

    2004-01-01

    Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

  14. Robust Least-Squares Support Vector Machine With Minimization of Mean and Variance of Modeling Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinjiang; Liu, Wenbo; Zhou, Chuang; Huang, Minghui

    2017-06-13

    The least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a popular data-driven modeling method and has been successfully applied to a wide range of applications. However, it has some disadvantages, including being ineffective at handling non-Gaussian noise as well as being sensitive to outliers. In this paper, a robust LS-SVM method is proposed and is shown to have more reliable performance when modeling a nonlinear system under conditions where Gaussian or non-Gaussian noise is present. The construction of a new objective function allows for a reduction of the mean of the modeling error as well as the minimization of its variance, and it does not constrain the mean of the modeling error to zero. This differs from the traditional LS-SVM, which uses a worst-case scenario approach in order to minimize the modeling error and constrains the mean of the modeling error to zero. In doing so, the proposed method takes the modeling error distribution information into consideration and is thus less conservative and more robust in regards to random noise. A solving method is then developed in order to determine the optimal parameters for the proposed robust LS-SVM. An additional analysis indicates that the proposed LS-SVM gives a smaller weight to a large-error training sample and a larger weight to a small-error training sample, and is thus more robust than the traditional LS-SVM. The effectiveness of the proposed robust LS-SVM is demonstrated using both artificial and real life cases.

  15. Advanced error diagnostics of the CMAQ and Chimere modelling systems within the AQMEII3 model evaluation framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Solazzo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The work here complements the overview analysis of the modelling systems participating in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3 by focusing on the performance for hourly surface ozone by two modelling systems, Chimere for Europe and CMAQ for North America. The evaluation strategy outlined in the course of the three phases of the AQMEII activity, aimed to build up a diagnostic methodology for model evaluation, is pursued here and novel diagnostic methods are proposed. In addition to evaluating the base case simulation in which all model components are configured in their standard mode, the analysis also makes use of sensitivity simulations in which the models have been applied by altering and/or zeroing lateral boundary conditions, emissions of anthropogenic precursors, and ozone dry deposition. To help understand of the causes of model deficiencies, the error components (bias, variance, and covariance of the base case and of the sensitivity runs are analysed in conjunction with timescale considerations and error modelling using the available error fields of temperature, wind speed, and NOx concentration. The results reveal the effectiveness and diagnostic power of the methods devised (which remains the main scope of this study, allowing the detection of the timescale and the fields that the two models are most sensitive to. The representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL dynamics is pivotal to both models. In particular, (i the fluctuations slower than ∼ 1.5 days account for 70–85 % of the mean square error of the full (undecomposed ozone time series; (ii a recursive, systematic error with daily periodicity is detected, responsible for 10–20 % of the quadratic total error; (iii errors in representing the timing of the daily transition between stability regimes in the PBL are responsible for a covariance error as large as 9 ppb (as much as the standard deviation of the network

  16. Goodness-of-fit test in a multivariate errors-in-variables model $AX=B$

    OpenAIRE

    Kukush, Alexander; Tsaregorodtsev, Yaroslav

    2016-01-01

    We consider a multivariable functional errors-in-variables model $AX\\approx B$, where the data matrices $A$ and $B$ are observed with errors, and a matrix parameter $X$ is to be estimated. A goodness-of-fit test is constructed based on the total least squares estimator. The proposed test is asymptotically chi-squared under null hypothesis. The power of the test under local alternatives is discussed.

  17. Modeling Human Error Mechanism for Soft Control in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aljneibi, Hanan Salah Ali; Ha, Jun Su; Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    To achieve the switch from conventional analog-based design to digital design in ACRs, a large number of manual operating controls and switches have to be replaced by a few common multi-function devices which is called soft control system. The soft controls in APR-1400 ACRs are classified into safety-grade and non-safety-grade soft controls; each was designed using different and independent input devices in ACRs. The operations using soft controls require operators to perform new tasks which were not necessary in conventional controls such as navigating computerized displays to monitor plant information and control devices. These kinds of computerized displays and soft controls may make operations more convenient but they might cause new types of human error. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or human errors) during NPP operation. The developed model would contribute to a lot of applications to improve human performance (or reduce human errors), HMI designs, and operators' training program in ACRs. The developed model of human error mechanism for the soft control is based on assumptions that a human operator has certain amount of capacity in cognitive resources and if resources required by operating tasks are greater than resources invested by the operator, human error (or poor human performance) is likely to occur (especially in 'slip'); good HMI (Human-machine Interface) design decreases the required resources; operator's skillfulness decreases the required resources; and high vigilance increases the invested resources. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or reduction of human errors) during NPP operation

  18. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  19. An Advanced N -body Model for Interacting Multiple Stellar Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brož, Miroslav [Astronomical Institute of the Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, V Holešovičkách 2, CZ-18000 Praha 8 (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-01

    We construct an advanced model for interacting multiple stellar systems in which we compute all trajectories with a numerical N -body integrator, namely the Bulirsch–Stoer from the SWIFT package. We can then derive various observables: astrometric positions, radial velocities, minima timings (TTVs), eclipse durations, interferometric visibilities, closure phases, synthetic spectra, spectral energy distribution, and even complete light curves. We use a modified version of the Wilson–Devinney code for the latter, in which the instantaneous true phase and inclination of the eclipsing binary are governed by the N -body integration. If all of these types of observations are at one’s disposal, a joint χ {sup 2} metric and an optimization algorithm (a simplex or simulated annealing) allow one to search for a global minimum and construct very robust models of stellar systems. At the same time, our N -body model is free from artifacts that may arise if mutual gravitational interactions among all components are not self-consistently accounted for. Finally, we present a number of examples showing dynamical effects that can be studied with our code and we discuss how systematic errors may affect the results (and how to prevent this from happening).

  20. Identifying model error in metabolic flux analysis - a generalized least squares approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolenko, Stanislav; Quattrociocchi, Marco; Aucoin, Marc G

    2016-09-13

    The estimation of intracellular flux through traditional metabolic flux analysis (MFA) using an overdetermined system of equations is a well established practice in metabolic engineering. Despite the continued evolution of the methodology since its introduction, there has been little focus on validation and identification of poor model fit outside of identifying "gross measurement error". The growing complexity of metabolic models, which are increasingly generated from genome-level data, has necessitated robust validation that can directly assess model fit. In this work, MFA calculation is framed as a generalized least squares (GLS) problem, highlighting the applicability of the common t-test for model validation. To differentiate between measurement and model error, we simulate ideal flux profiles directly from the model, perturb them with estimated measurement error, and compare their validation to real data. Application of this strategy to an established Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell model shows how fluxes validated by traditional means may be largely non-significant due to a lack of model fit. With further simulation, we explore how t-test significance relates to calculation error and show that fluxes found to be non-significant have 2-4 fold larger error (if measurement uncertainty is in the 5-10 % range). The proposed validation method goes beyond traditional detection of "gross measurement error" to identify lack of fit between model and data. Although the focus of this work is on t-test validation and traditional MFA, the presented framework is readily applicable to other regression analysis methods and MFA formulations.

  1. Error modeling of DEMs from topographic surveys of rivers using fuzzy inference systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangen, Sara; Hensleigh, James; McHugh, Peter; Wheaton, Joseph

    2016-02-01

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) have become common place in the earth sciences as a tool to characterize surface topography and set modeling boundary conditions. All DEMs have a degree of inherent error that is propagated to subsequent models and analyses. While previous research has shown that DEM error is spatially variable it is often represented as spatially uniform for analytical simplicity. Fuzzy inference systems (FIS) offer a tractable approach for modeling spatially variable DEM error, including flexibility in the number of inputs and calibration of outputs based on survey technique and modeling environment. We compare three FIS error models for DEMs derived from TS surveys of wadeable streams and test them at 34 sites in the Columbia River basin. The models differ in complexity regarding the number/type of inputs and degree of site-specific parameterization. A 2-input FIS uses inputs derived from the topographic point cloud (slope, point density). A 4-input FIS adds interpolation error and 3-D point quality. The 5-input FIS adds bed-surface roughness estimates. Both the 4 and 5-input FIS model output were parameterized to site-specific values. In the wetted channel we found (i) the 5-input FIS resulted in lower mean δz due to including roughness, and (ii) the 4 and 5-input FIS resulted in a higher standard deviation and maximum δz due to the inclusion of site-specific bank heights. All three FIS gave plausible estimates of DEM error, with the two more complicated models offering an improvement in the ability to detect spatially localized areas of DEM uncertainty.

  2. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  3. A system dynamic simulation model for managing the human error in power tools industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Shaharanee, Izwan Nizal Mohd

    2017-10-01

    In the era of modern and competitive life of today, every organization will face the situations in which the work does not proceed as planned when there is problems occur in which it had to be delay. However, human error is often cited as the culprit. The error that made by the employees would cause them have to spend additional time to identify and check for the error which in turn could affect the normal operations of the company as well as the company's reputation. Employee is a key element of the organization in running all of the activities of organization. Hence, work performance of the employees is a crucial factor in organizational success. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that cause the increasing errors make by employees in the organization by using system dynamics approach. The broadly defined targets in this study are employees in the Regional Material Field team from purchasing department in power tools industries. Questionnaires were distributed to the respondents to obtain their perceptions on the root cause of errors make by employees in the company. The system dynamics model was developed to simulate the factor of the increasing errors make by employees and its impact. The findings of this study showed that the increasing of error make by employees was generally caused by the factors of workload, work capacity, job stress, motivation and performance of employees. However, this problem could be solve by increased the number of employees in the organization.

  4. A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

     This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error......-correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably...

  5. A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error......-correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably...

  6. Characterization of model errors in the calculation of tangent heights for atmospheric infrared limb measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ridolfi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We review the main factors driving the calculation of the tangent height of spaceborne limb measurements: the ray-tracing method, the refractive index model and the assumed atmosphere. We find that commonly used ray tracing and refraction models are very accurate, at least in the mid-infrared. The factor with largest effect in the tangent height calculation is the assumed atmosphere. Using a climatological model in place of the real atmosphere may cause tangent height errors up to ± 200 m. Depending on the adopted retrieval scheme, these errors may have a significant impact on the derived profiles.

  7. Dynamic Modeling Accuracy Dependence on Errors in Sensor Measurements, Mass Properties, and Aircraft Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

    2013-01-01

    A nonlinear simulation of the NASA Generic Transport Model was used to investigate the effects of errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry on the accuracy of dynamic models identified from flight data. Measurements from a typical system identification maneuver were systematically and progressively deteriorated and then used to estimate stability and control derivatives within a Monte Carlo analysis. Based on the results, recommendations were provided for maximum allowable errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry to achieve desired levels of dynamic modeling accuracy. Results using other flight conditions, parameter estimation methods, and a full-scale F-16 nonlinear aircraft simulation were compared with these recommendations.

  8. Execution-Error Modeling and Analysis of the GRAIL Spacecraft Pair

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Troy D.

    2013-01-01

    The GRAIL spacecraft, Ebb and Flow (aka GRAIL-A and GRAIL-B), completed their prime mission in June and extended mission in December 2012. The excellent performance of the propulsion and attitude control subsystems contributed significantly to the mission's success. In order to better understand this performance, the Navigation Team has analyzed and refined the execution-error models for delta-v maneuvers. There were enough maneuvers in the prime mission to form the basis of a model update that was used in the extended mission. This paper documents the evolution of the execution-error models along with the analysis and software used.

  9. Using surrogate biomarkers to improve measurement error models in nutritional epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; White, Ian R; Rodwell, Sheila A

    2013-01-01

    Nutritional epidemiology relies largely on self-reported measures of dietary intake, errors in which give biased estimated diet–disease associations. Self-reported measurements come from questionnaires and food records. Unbiased biomarkers are scarce; however, surrogate biomarkers, which are correlated with intake but not unbiased, can also be useful. It is important to quantify and correct for the effects of measurement error on diet–disease associations. Challenges arise because there is no gold standard, and errors in self-reported measurements are correlated with true intake and each other. We describe an extended model for error in questionnaire, food record, and surrogate biomarker measurements. The focus is on estimating the degree of bias in estimated diet–disease associations due to measurement error. In particular, we propose using sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of changes in values of model parameters which are usually assumed fixed. The methods are motivated by and applied to measures of fruit and vegetable intake from questionnaires, 7-day diet diaries, and surrogate biomarker (plasma vitamin C) from over 25000 participants in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Our results show that the estimated effects of error in self-reported measurements are highly sensitive to model assumptions, resulting in anything from a large attenuation to a small amplification in the diet–disease association. Commonly made assumptions could result in a large overcorrection for the effects of measurement error. Increased understanding of relationships between potential surrogate biomarkers and true dietary intake is essential for obtaining good estimates of the effects of measurement error in self-reported measurements on observed diet–disease associations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:23553407

  10. Effect of unrepresented model errors on estimated soil hydraulic material properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jaumann

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Unrepresented model errors influence the estimation of effective soil hydraulic material properties. As the required model complexity for a consistent description of the measurement data is application dependent and unknown a priori, we implemented a structural error analysis based on the inversion of increasingly complex models. We show that the method can indicate unrepresented model errors and quantify their effects on the resulting material properties. To this end, a complicated 2-D subsurface architecture (ASSESS was forced with a fluctuating groundwater table while time domain reflectometry (TDR and hydraulic potential measurement devices monitored the hydraulic state. In this work, we analyze the quantitative effect of unrepresented (i sensor position uncertainty, (ii small scale-heterogeneity, and (iii 2-D flow phenomena on estimated soil hydraulic material properties with a 1-D and a 2-D study. The results of these studies demonstrate three main points: (i the fewer sensors are available per material, the larger is the effect of unrepresented model errors on the resulting material properties. (ii The 1-D study yields biased parameters due to unrepresented lateral flow. (iii Representing and estimating sensor positions as well as small-scale heterogeneity decreased the mean absolute error of the volumetric water content data by more than a factor of 2 to 0. 004.

  11. Effect of unrepresented model errors on estimated soil hydraulic material properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaumann, Stefan; Roth, Kurt

    2017-09-01

    Unrepresented model errors influence the estimation of effective soil hydraulic material properties. As the required model complexity for a consistent description of the measurement data is application dependent and unknown a priori, we implemented a structural error analysis based on the inversion of increasingly complex models. We show that the method can indicate unrepresented model errors and quantify their effects on the resulting material properties. To this end, a complicated 2-D subsurface architecture (ASSESS) was forced with a fluctuating groundwater table while time domain reflectometry (TDR) and hydraulic potential measurement devices monitored the hydraulic state. In this work, we analyze the quantitative effect of unrepresented (i) sensor position uncertainty, (ii) small scale-heterogeneity, and (iii) 2-D flow phenomena on estimated soil hydraulic material properties with a 1-D and a 2-D study. The results of these studies demonstrate three main points: (i) the fewer sensors are available per material, the larger is the effect of unrepresented model errors on the resulting material properties. (ii) The 1-D study yields biased parameters due to unrepresented lateral flow. (iii) Representing and estimating sensor positions as well as small-scale heterogeneity decreased the mean absolute error of the volumetric water content data by more than a factor of 2 to 0. 004.

  12. Finding of Correction Factor and Dimensional Error in Bio-AM Model by FDM Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manmadhachary, Aiamunoori; Ravi Kumar, Yennam; Krishnanand, Lanka

    2016-06-01

    Additive Manufacturing (AM) is the swift manufacturing process, in which input data can be provided from various sources like 3-Dimensional (3D) Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and 3D scanner data. From the CT/MRI data can be manufacture Biomedical Additive Manufacturing (Bio-AM) models. The Bio-AM model gives a better lead on preplanning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. However manufacturing of the accurate Bio-AM model is one of the unsolved problems. The current paper demonstrates error between the Standard Triangle Language (STL) model to Bio-AM model of dry mandible and found correction factor in Bio-AM model with Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) technique. In the present work dry mandible CT images are acquired by CT scanner and supplied into a 3D CAD model in the form of STL model. Further the data is sent to FDM machine for fabrication of Bio-AM model. The difference between Bio-AM to STL model dimensions is considered as dimensional error and the ratio of STL to Bio-AM model dimensions considered as a correction factor. This correction factor helps to fabricate the AM model with accurate dimensions of the patient anatomy. These true dimensional Bio-AM models increasing the safety and accuracy in pre-planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. The correction factor for Dimension SST 768 FDM AM machine is 1.003 and dimensional error is limited to 0.3 %.

  13. Evaluation of parametric models by the prediction error in colorectal cancer survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Orooji, Arezoo; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Zali, Mohammad Reza

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the factors influencing predicted survival time for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) using parametric models and select the best model by predicting error's technique. Survival models are statistical techniques to estimate or predict the overall time up to specific events. Prediction is important in medical science and the accuracy of prediction is determined by a measurement, generally based on loss functions, called prediction error. A total of 600 colorectal cancer patients who admitted to the Cancer Registry Center of Gastroenterology and Liver Disease Research Center, Taleghani Hospital, Tehran, were followed at least for 5 years and have completed selected information for this study. Body Mass Index (BMI), Sex, family history of CRC, tumor site, stage of disease and histology of tumor included in the analysis. The survival time was compared by the Log-rank test and multivariate analysis was carried out using parametric models including Log normal, Weibull and Log logistic regression. For selecting the best model, the prediction error by apparent loss was used. Log rank test showed a better survival for females, BMI more than 25, patients with early stage at diagnosis and patients with colon tumor site. Prediction error by apparent loss was estimated and indicated that Weibull model was the best one for multivariate analysis. BMI and Stage were independent prognostic factors, according to Weibull model. In this study, according to prediction error Weibull regression showed a better fit. Prediction error would be a criterion to select the best model with the ability to make predictions of prognostic factors in survival analysis.

  14. Constituent quarks and systematic errors in mid-rapidity charged multiplicity dNch/dη distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tannenbaum, M. J.

    2018-01-01

    Centrality definition in A + A collisions at colliders such as RHIC and LHC suffers from a correlated systematic uncertainty caused by the efficiency of detecting a p + p collision (50 ± 5% for PHENIX at RHIC). In A + A collisions where centrality is measured by the number of nucleon collisions, Ncoll, or the number of nucleon participants, Npart, or the number of constituent quark participants, Nqp, the error in the efficiency of the primary interaction trigger (Beam-Beam Counters) for a p + p collision leads to a correlated systematic uncertainty in Npart, Ncoll or Nqp which reduces binomially as the A + A collisions become more central. If this is not correctly accounted for in projections of A + A to p + p collisions, then mistaken conclusions can result. A recent example is presented in whether the mid-rapidity charged multiplicity per constituent quark participant (dNch/dη)/Nqp in Au + Au at RHIC was the same as the value in p + p collisions.

  15. Helping Students Acquainted with Multiplication in Rectangular Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasman, Fridgo; den Hertog, Jaap; Zulkardi; Hartono, Yusuf

    2011-01-01

    Usually, multiplication is introduced to students to represent quantities that come in groups. However there is also rectangular array model which is also related to multiplication. Barmby et al. (2009) has shown that the rectangular model such as array representations encourage students to develop their thinking about multiplication as a binary…

  16. Identification of simultaneous equation models with measurement error : a computerized evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merckens, Arjen; Bekker, Paul

    1993-01-01

    Rank conditions for identification in structural models are often difficult evaluate. Here we consider simultaneous equation models with measurement error and we show that previously published rank conditions for identification are not well-suited for evaluation. An alternative rank condition is

  17. Rater Stringency Error in Performance Rating: A Contrast of Three Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cason, Gerald J.; Cason, Carolyn L.

    The use of three remedies for errors in the measurement of ability that arise from differences in rater stringency is discussed. Models contrasted are: (1) Conventional; (2) Handicap; and (3) deterministic Rater Response Theory (RRT). General model requirements, power, bias of measures, computing cost, and complexity are contrasted. Contrasts are…

  18. Thermal Error Modeling of a Machine Tool Using Data Mining Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kun-Chieh; Tseng, Pai-Chang

    In this paper the knowledge discovery technique is used to build an effective and transparent mathematic thermal error model for machine tools. Our proposed thermal error modeling methodology (called KRL) integrates the schemes of K-means theory (KM), rough-set theory (RS), and linear regression model (LR). First, to explore the machine tool's thermal behavior, an integrated system is designed to simultaneously measure the temperature ascents at selected characteristic points and the thermal deformations at spindle nose under suitable real machining conditions. Second, the obtained data are classified by the KM method, further reduced by the RS scheme, and a linear thermal error model is established by the LR technique. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, an adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) thermal error model is introduced for comparison. Finally, a verification experiment is carried out and results reveal that the proposed KRL model is effective in predicting thermal behavior in machine tools. Our proposed KRL model is transparent, easily understood by users, and can be easily programmed or modified for different machining conditions.

  19. Making the error-controlling algorithm of observable operator models constructive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming-Jie; Jaeger, Herbert; Thon, Michael

    2009-12-01

    Observable operator models (OOMs) are a class of models for stochastic processes that properly subsumes the class that can be modeled by finite-dimensional hidden Markov models (HMMs). One of the main advantages of OOMs over HMMs is that they admit asymptotically correct learning algorithms. A series of learning algorithms has been developed, with increasing computational and statistical efficiency, whose recent culmination was the error-controlling (EC) algorithm developed by the first author. The EC algorithm is an iterative, asymptotically correct algorithm that yields (and minimizes) an assured upper bound on the modeling error. The run time is faster by at least one order of magnitude than EM-based HMM learning algorithms and yields significantly more accurate models than the latter. Here we present a significant improvement of the EC algorithm: the constructive error-controlling (CEC) algorithm. CEC inherits from EC the main idea of minimizing an upper bound on the modeling error but is constructive where EC needs iterations. As a consequence, we obtain further gains in learning speed without loss in modeling accuracy.

  20. A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

  1. Covariate Measurement Error Adjustment for Multilevel Models with Application to Educational Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battauz, Michela; Bellio, Ruggero; Gori, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    This article proposes a multilevel model for the assessment of school effectiveness where the intake achievement is a predictor and the response variable is the achievement in the subsequent periods. The achievement is a latent variable that can be estimated on the basis of an item response theory model and hence subject to measurement error.…

  2. Compliance Modeling and Error Compensation of a 3-Parallelogram Lightweight Robotic Arm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei; Guo, Sheng; Bai, Shaoping

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents compliance modeling and error compensation for lightweight robotic arms built with parallelogram linkages, i.e., Π joints. The Cartesian stiffness matrix is derived using the virtual joint method. Based on the developed stiffness model, a method to compensate the compliance...

  3. Impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimation of methane sources and sinks by inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, Robin; Bousquet, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric

    2013-04-01

    Since the nineties, inverse modelling by assimilating atmospheric measurements into a chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to derive sources and sinks of atmospheric trace gases. More recently, the high global warming potential of methane (CH4) and unexplained variations of its atmospheric mixing ratio caught the attention of several research groups. Indeed, the diversity and the variability of methane sources induce high uncertainty on the present and the future evolution of CH4 budget. With the increase of available measurement data to constrain inversions (satellite data, high frequency surface and tall tower observations, FTIR spectrometry,...), the main limiting factor is about to become the representation of atmospheric transport in CTMs. Indeed, errors in transport modelling directly converts into flux changes when assuming perfect transport in atmospheric inversions. Hence, we propose an inter-model comparison in order to quantify the impact of transport and modelling errors on the CH4 fluxes estimated into a variational inversion framework. Several inversion experiments are conducted using the same set-up (prior emissions, measurement and prior errors, OH field, initial conditions) of the variational system PYVAR, developed at LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France). Nine different models (ACTM, IFS, IMPACT, IMPACT1x1, MOZART, PCTM, TM5, TM51x1 and TOMCAT) used in TRANSCOM-CH4 experiment (Patra el al, 2011) provide synthetic measurements data at up to 280 surface sites to constrain the inversions performed using the PYVAR system. Only the CTM (and the meteorological drivers which drive them) used to create the pseudo-observations vary among inversions. Consequently, the comparisons of the nine inverted methane fluxes obtained for 2005 give a good order of magnitude of the impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimated fluxes with current and future networks. It is shown that transport and modelling errors

  4. Modeling and Simulation on Errors of Feed Unit by Considering Change of Force Bearing Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Wei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The linear feed unit is a type of precision linear motion component that is widely used in computer numerical control (CNC machine tools. The contact stiffness and error influences the performance of the feed unit directly. Thus, investigating contact stiffness and error is important in optimizing the design and improving the performance of the linear feed unit. In this study, the contact mechanics and the deformation of the roller between the roller and rail are analyzed. Calculation model of the contact stiffness and error based on the Hertz theory and multi-body kinematics are established and the change of the contact angle is also considered. Errors and the contact stiffness curve of five directions and the changes of the slope of the stiffness curve after the load increases to a certain size are obtained. The Motion precision errors of The roller linear feed unit are analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed models on contact stiffness and error is verified through simulation on a specialized test system of the linear feed unit

  5. Performance evaluation in color face hallucination with error regression model in MPCA subspace method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asavaskulkiet, Krissada

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel face super-resolution reconstruction (hallucination) technique for YCbCr color space. The underlying idea is to learn with an error regression model and multi-linear principal component analysis (MPCA). From hallucination framework, many color face images are explained in YCbCr space. To reduce the time complexity of color face hallucination, we can be naturally described the color face imaged as tensors or multi-linear arrays. In addition, the error regression analysis is used to find the error estimation which can be obtained from the existing LR in tensor space. In learning process is from the mistakes in reconstruct face images of the training dataset by MPCA, then finding the relationship between input and error by regression analysis. In hallucinating process uses normal method by backprojection of MPCA, after that the result is corrected with the error estimation. In this contribution we show that our hallucination technique can be suitable for color face images both in RGB and YCbCr space. By using the MPCA subspace with error regression model, we can generate photorealistic color face images. Our approach is demonstrated by extensive experiments with high-quality hallucinated color faces. Comparison with existing algorithms shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  6. Evaluation of human reliability analysis methods addressing cognitive error modelling and quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reer, B.; Mertens, J.

    1996-05-01

    Actions and errors by the operating personnel, which are of significance for the safety of a technical system, are classified according to various criteria. Each type of action thus identified is roughly discussed with respect to its quantifiability by state-of-the-art human reliability analysis (HRA) within a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Thereby, the principal limit of quantifying human actions are discussed with special emphasis on data quality and cognitive error modelling. In this connection, the basic procedure for a HRA is briefly described under realistic conditions. With respect to the quantitative part of a HRA - the determination of error probabilities - an evaluating description of the standard method THERP (Technique of Human Error Rate Prediction) is given using eight evaluation criteria. Furthermore, six new developments (EdF'sPHRA, HCR, HCR/ORE, SLIM, HEART, INTENT) are briefly described and roughly evaluated. The report concludes with a catalogue of requirements for HRA methods. (orig.) [de

  7. Uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model at multiple flux tower sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingshi; Senay, Gabriel B.; Singh, Ramesh K.; Verdin, James P.

    2016-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water cycle – ET from the land surface returns approximately 60% of the global precipitation back to the atmosphere. ET also plays an important role in energy transport among the biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. Current regional to global and daily to annual ET estimation relies mainly on surface energy balance (SEB) ET models or statistical and empirical methods driven by remote sensing data and various climatological databases. These models have uncertainties due to inevitable input errors, poorly defined parameters, and inadequate model structures. The eddy covariance measurements on water, energy, and carbon fluxes at the AmeriFlux tower sites provide an opportunity to assess the ET modeling uncertainties. In this study, we focused on uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model for ET estimation at multiple AmeriFlux tower sites with diverse land cover characteristics and climatic conditions. The 8-day composite 1-km MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) was used as input land surface temperature for the SSEBop algorithms. The other input data were taken from the AmeriFlux database. Results of statistical analysis indicated that the SSEBop model performed well in estimating ET with an R2 of 0.86 between estimated ET and eddy covariance measurements at 42 AmeriFlux tower sites during 2001–2007. It was encouraging to see that the best performance was observed for croplands, where R2 was 0.92 with a root mean square error of 13 mm/month. The uncertainties or random errors from input variables and parameters of the SSEBop model led to monthly ET estimates with relative errors less than 20% across multiple flux tower sites distributed across different biomes. This uncertainty of the SSEBop model lies within the error range of other SEB models, suggesting systematic error or bias of the SSEBop model is within

  8. Accuracy of devices for self-monitoring of blood glucose: A stochastic error model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettoretti, M; Facchinetti, A; Sparacino, G; Cobelli, C

    2015-01-01

    Self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) devices are portable systems that allow measuring glucose concentration in a small drop of blood obtained via finger-prick. SMBG measurements are key in type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, e.g. for tuning insulin dosing. A reliable model of SMBG accuracy would be important in several applications, e.g. in in silico design and optimization of insulin therapy. In the literature, the most used model to describe SMBG error is the Gaussian distribution, which however is simplistic to properly account for the observed variability. Here, a methodology to derive a stochastic model of SMBG accuracy is presented. The method consists in dividing the glucose range into zones in which absolute/relative error presents constant standard deviation (SD) and, then, fitting by maximum-likelihood a skew-normal distribution model to absolute/relative error distribution in each zone. The method was tested on a database of SMBG measurements collected by the One Touch Ultra 2 (Lifescan Inc., Milpitas, CA). In particular, two zones were identified: zone 1 (BG≤75 mg/dl) with constant-SD absolute error and zone 2 (BG>75mg/dl) with constant-SD relative error. Mean and SD of the identified skew-normal distributions are, respectively, 2.03 and 6.51 in zone 1, 4.78% and 10.09% in zone 2. Visual predictive check validation showed that the derived two-zone model accurately reproduces SMBG measurement error distribution, performing significantly better than the single-zone Gaussian model used previously in the literature. This stochastic model allows a more realistic SMBG scenario for in silico design and optimization of T1D insulin therapy.

  9. Flexible Modeling of Survival Data with Covariates Subject to Detection Limits via Multiple Imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Paul W; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhang, Daowen

    2014-01-01

    Models for survival data generally assume that covariates are fully observed. However, in medical studies it is not uncommon for biomarkers to be censored at known detection limits. A computationally-efficient multiple imputation procedure for modeling survival data with covariates subject to detection limits is proposed. This procedure is developed in the context of an accelerated failure time model with a flexible seminonparametric error distribution. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the multiple imputation estimator are established and a consistent variance estimator is provided. An iterative version of the proposed multiple imputation algorithm that approximates the EM algorithm for maximum likelihood is also suggested. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed multiple imputation methods work well while alternative methods lead to estimates that are either biased or more variable. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the dataset from a recently-conducted GenIMS study.

  10. The operator model as a framework of research on errors and temporal, qualitative and analogical reasoning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decortis, F.; Drozdowicz, B.; Masson, M.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the needs and requirements for developing a cognitive model of a human operator are discussed and the computer architecture, currently being developed, is described. Given the approach taken, namely the division of the problem into specialised tasks within an area and using the architecture chosen, it is possible to build independently several cognitive and psychological models such as errors and stress models, as well as models of temporal, qualitative and an analogical reasoning. (author)

  11. Exact sampling of the unobserved covariates in Bayesian spline models for measurement error problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadra, Anindya; Carroll, Raymond J

    2016-07-01

    In truncated polynomial spline or B-spline models where the covariates are measured with error, a fully Bayesian approach to model fitting requires the covariates and model parameters to be sampled at every Markov chain Monte Carlo iteration. Sampling the unobserved covariates poses a major computational problem and usually Gibbs sampling is not possible. This forces the practitioner to use a Metropolis-Hastings step which might suffer from unacceptable performance due to poor mixing and might require careful tuning. In this article we show for the cases of truncated polynomial spline or B-spline models of degree equal to one, the complete conditional distribution of the covariates measured with error is available explicitly as a mixture of double-truncated normals, thereby enabling a Gibbs sampling scheme. We demonstrate via a simulation study that our technique performs favorably in terms of computational efficiency and statistical performance. Our results indicate up to 62 and 54 % increase in mean integrated squared error efficiency when compared to existing alternatives while using truncated polynomial splines and B-splines respectively. Furthermore, there is evidence that the gain in efficiency increases with the measurement error variance, indicating the proposed method is a particularly valuable tool for challenging applications that present high measurement error. We conclude with a demonstration on a nutritional epidemiology data set from the NIH-AARP study and by pointing out some possible extensions of the current work.

  12. Linear mixed models for replication data to efficiently allow for covariate measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Jonathan W; De Stavola, Bianca L; Frost, Chris

    2009-11-10

    It is well known that measurement error in the covariates of regression models generally causes bias in parameter estimates. Correction for such biases requires information concerning the measurement error, which is often in the form of internal validation or replication data. Regression calibration (RC) is a popular approach to correct for covariate measurement error, which involves predicting the true covariate using error-prone measurements. Likelihood methods have previously been proposed as an alternative approach to estimate the parameters in models affected by measurement error, but have been relatively infrequently employed in medical statistics and epidemiology, partly because of computational complexity and concerns regarding robustness to distributional assumptions. We show how a standard random-intercepts model can be used to obtain maximum likelihood (ML) estimates when the outcome model is linear or logistic regression under certain normality assumptions, when internal error-prone replicate measurements are available. Through simulations we show that for linear regression, ML gives more efficient estimates than RC, although the gain is typically small. Furthermore, we show that RC and ML estimates remain consistent even when the normality assumptions are violated. For logistic regression, our implementation of ML is consistent if the true covariate is conditionally normal given the outcome, in contrast to RC. In simulations, this ML estimator showed less bias in situations where RC gives non-negligible biases. Our proposal makes the ML approach to dealing with covariate measurement error more accessible to researchers, which we hope will improve its viability as a useful alternative to methods such as RC.

  13. Generation of 3-D hydrostratigraphic zones from dense airborne electromagnetic data to assess groundwater model prediction error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Nikolaj K; Minsley, Burke J.; Christensen, Steen

    2017-01-01

    We present a new methodology to combine spatially dense high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data and sparse borehole information to construct multiple plausible geological structures using a stochastic approach. The method developed allows for quantification of the performance of groundwater models built from different geological realizations of structure. Multiple structural realizations are generated using geostatistical Monte Carlo simulations that treat sparse borehole lithological observations as hard data and dense geophysically derived structural probabilities as soft data. Each structural model is used to define 3-D hydrostratigraphical zones of a groundwater model, and the hydraulic parameter values of the zones are estimated by using nonlinear regression to fit hydrological data (hydraulic head and river discharge measurements). Use of the methodology is demonstrated for a synthetic domain having structures of categorical deposits consisting of sand, silt, or clay. It is shown that using dense AEM data with the methodology can significantly improve the estimated accuracy of the sediment distribution as compared to when borehole data are used alone. It is also shown that this use of AEM data can improve the predictive capability of a calibrated groundwater model that uses the geological structures as zones. However, such structural models will always contain errors because even with dense AEM data it is not possible to perfectly resolve the structures of a groundwater system. It is shown that when using such erroneous structures in a groundwater model, they can lead to biased parameter estimates and biased model predictions, therefore impairing the model's predictive capability.

  14. Global terrain classification using Multiple-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain (MERIT) to address susceptibility of landslides and other geohazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwahashi, J.; Yamazaki, D.; Matsuoka, M.; Thamarux, P.; Herrick, J.; Yong, A.; Mital, U.

    2017-12-01

    A seamless model of landform classifications with regional accuracy will be a powerful platform for geophysical studies that forecast geologic hazards. Spatial variability as a function of landform on a global scale was captured in the automated classifications of Iwahashi and Pike (2007) and additional developments are presented here that incorporate more accurate depictions using higher-resolution elevation data than the original 1-km scale Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (DEM). We create polygon-based terrain classifications globally by using the 280-m DEM interpolated from the Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM (MERIT; Yamazaki et al., 2017). The multi-scale pixel-image analysis method, known as Multi-resolution Segmentation (Baatz and Schäpe, 2000), is first used to classify the terrains based on geometric signatures (slope and local convexity) calculated from the 280-m DEM. Next, we apply the machine learning method of "k-means clustering" to prepare the polygon-based classification at the globe-scale using slope, local convexity and surface texture. We then group the divisions with similar properties by hierarchical clustering and other statistical analyses using geological and geomorphological data of the area where landslides and earthquakes are frequent (e.g. Japan and California). We find the 280-m DEM resolution is only partially sufficient for classifying plains. We nevertheless observe that the categories correspond to reported landslide and liquefaction features at the global scale, suggesting that our model is an appropriate platform to forecast ground failure. To predict seismic amplification, we estimate site conditions using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30-m (VS30) measurements compiled by Yong et al. (2016) and the terrain model developed by Yong (2016; Y16). We plan to test our method on finer resolution DEMs and report our findings to obtain a more globally consistent terrain model as there

  15. Government spending in education and economic growth in Cameroon:a Vector error Correction Model approach

    OpenAIRE

    Douanla Tayo, Lionel; Abomo Fouda, Marcel Olivier

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at assessing the effect of government spending in education on economic growth in Cameroon over the period 1980-2012 using a vector error correction model. The estimated results show that these expenditures had a significant and positive impact on economic growth both in short and long run. The estimated error correction model shows that an increase of 1% of the growth rate of private gross fixed capital formation and government education spending led to increases of 5.03% a...

  16. Accounting for spatial correlation errors in the assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models through localization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaki, M.; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J. L.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.

    2017-10-01

    Assimilation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) information from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission can provide significant improvements in hydrological modelling. However, the rather coarse spatial resolution of GRACE TWS and its spatially correlated errors pose considerable challenges for achieving realistic assimilation results. Consequently, successful data assimilation depends on rigorous modelling of the full error covariance matrix of the GRACE TWS estimates, as well as realistic error behavior for hydrological model simulations. In this study, we assess the application of local analysis (LA) to maximize the contribution of GRACE TWS in hydrological data assimilation. For this, we assimilate GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment system (W3RA) over the Australian continent while applying LA and accounting for existing spatial correlations using the full error covariance matrix. GRACE TWS data is applied with different spatial resolutions including 1° to 5° grids, as well as basin averages. The ensemble-based sequential filtering technique of the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) is applied to assimilate TWS data into W3RA. For each spatial scale, the performance of the data assimilation is assessed through comparison with independent in-situ ground water and soil moisture observations. Overall, the results demonstrate that LA is able to stabilize the inversion process (within the implementation of the SQRA filter) leading to less errors for all spatial scales considered with an average RMSE improvement of 54% (e.g., 52.23 mm down to 26.80 mm) for all the cases with respect to groundwater in-situ measurements. Validating the assimilated results with groundwater observations indicates that LA leads to 13% better (in terms of RMSE) assimilation results compared to the cases with Gaussian errors assumptions. This highlights the great potential of LA and the use of the full error covariance matrix of GRACE TWS

  17. Research on Error Modelling and Identification of 3 Axis NC Machine Tools Based on Cross Grid Encoder Measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Z C; Lv, C F; Hong, M S

    2006-01-01

    A new error modelling and identification method based on the cross grid encoder is proposed in this paper. Generally, there are 21 error components in the geometric error of the 3 axis NC machine tools. However according our theoretical analysis, the squareness error among different guide ways affects not only the translation error component, but also the rotational ones. Therefore, a revised synthetic error model is developed. And the mapping relationship between the error component and radial motion error of round workpiece manufactured on the NC machine tools are deduced. This mapping relationship shows that the radial error of circular motion is the comprehensive function result of all the error components of link, worktable, sliding table and main spindle block. Aiming to overcome the solution singularity shortcoming of traditional error component identification method, a new multi-step identification method of error component by using the Cross Grid Encoder measurement technology is proposed based on the kinematic error model of NC machine tool. Firstly, the 12 translational error components of the NC machine tool are measured and identified by using the least square method (LSM) when the NC machine tools go linear motion in the three orthogonal planes: XOY plane, XOZ plane and YOZ plane. Secondly, the circular error tracks are measured when the NC machine tools go circular motion in the same above orthogonal planes by using the cross grid encoder Heidenhain KGM 182. Therefore 9 rotational errors can be identified by using LSM. Finally the experimental validation of the above modelling theory and identification method is carried out in the 3 axis CNC vertical machining centre Cincinnati 750 Arrow. The entire 21 error components have been successfully measured out by the above method. Research shows the multi-step modelling and identification method is very suitable for 'on machine measurement'

  18. Model selection for marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data with missing observations and covariate measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2015-10-01

    Missing observations and covariate measurement error commonly arise in longitudinal data. However, existing methods for model selection in marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data fail to address the potential bias resulting from these issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a new model selection criterion, the Generalized Longitudinal Information Criterion, which is based on an approximately unbiased estimator for the expected quadratic error of a considered marginal model accounting for both data missingness and covariate measurement error. The simulation results reveal that the proposed method performs quite well in the presence of missing data and covariate measurement error. On the contrary, the naive procedures without taking care of such complexity in data may perform quite poorly. The proposed method is applied to data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to assess the relationship of depression with health and social status in the elderly, accommodating measurement error in the covariate as well as missing observations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Seismic attenuation relationship with homogeneous and heterogeneous prediction-error variance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, He-Qing; Xu, Rong-Rong; Yuen, Ka-Veng

    2014-03-01

    Peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice. One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula, which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude, the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties. In the present study, the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an efficiency-robustness balanced formula is proposed. For this purpose, a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship. In this approach, each model class (a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data. The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fitting capability and the sensitivity to noise. A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis. The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database. It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1993).

  20. Frequency Weighted Model Order Reduction Technique and Error Bounds for Discrete Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Imran

    2014-01-01

    for whole frequency range. However, certain applications (like controller reduction require frequency weighted approximation, which introduce the concept of using frequency weights in model reduction techniques. Limitations of some existing frequency weighted model reduction techniques include lack of stability of reduced order models (for two sided weighting case and frequency response error bounds. A new frequency weighted technique for balanced model reduction for discrete time systems is proposed. The proposed technique guarantees stable reduced order models even for the case when two sided weightings are present. Efficient technique for frequency weighted Gramians is also proposed. Results are compared with other existing frequency weighted model reduction techniques for discrete time systems. Moreover, the proposed technique yields frequency response error bounds.

  1. Factors influencing superimposition error of 3D cephalometric landmarks by plane orientation method using 4 reference points: 4 point superimposition error regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jae Joon; Kim, Kee-Deog; Park, Hyok; Park, Chang Seo; Jeong, Ho-Gul

    2014-01-01

    Superimposition has been used as a method to evaluate the changes of orthodontic or orthopedic treatment in the dental field. With the introduction of cone beam CT (CBCT), evaluating 3 dimensional changes after treatment became possible by superimposition. 4 point plane orientation is one of the simplest ways to achieve superimposition of 3 dimensional images. To find factors influencing superimposition error of cephalometric landmarks by 4 point plane orientation method and to evaluate the reproducibility of cephalometric landmarks for analyzing superimposition error, 20 patients were analyzed who had normal skeletal and occlusal relationship and took CBCT for diagnosis of temporomandibular disorder. The nasion, sella turcica, basion and midpoint between the left and the right most posterior point of the lesser wing of sphenoidal bone were used to define a three-dimensional (3D) anatomical reference co-ordinate system. Another 15 reference cephalometric points were also determined three times in the same image. Reorientation error of each landmark could be explained substantially (23%) by linear regression model, which consists of 3 factors describing position of each landmark towards reference axes and locating error. 4 point plane orientation system may produce an amount of reorientation error that may vary according to the perpendicular distance between the landmark and the x-axis; the reorientation error also increases as the locating error and shift of reference axes viewed from each landmark increases. Therefore, in order to reduce the reorientation error, accuracy of all landmarks including the reference points is important. Construction of the regression model using reference points of greater precision is required for the clinical application of this model.

  2. Multidimensional Extension of Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes Models to Detect DIF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo; Bulut, Okan; Suh, Youngsuk

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have found multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models to be an effective tool in detecting uniform differential item functioning (DIF) for individual items and item bundles. A recently developed MIMIC-interaction model is capable of detecting both uniform and nonuniform DIF in the unidimensional item response theory…

  3. A Novel Error Model of Optical Systems and an On-Orbit Calibration Method for Star Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the on-orbit measurement accuracy of star sensors, the effects of image-plane rotary error, image-plane tilt error and distortions of optical systems resulting from the on-orbit thermal environment were studied in this paper. Since these issues will affect the precision of star image point positions, in this paper, a novel measurement error model based on the traditional error model is explored. Due to the orthonormal characteristics of image-plane rotary-tilt errors and the strong nonlinearity among these error parameters, it is difficult to calibrate all the parameters simultaneously. To solve this difficulty, for the new error model, a modified two-step calibration method based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF and Least Square Methods (LSM is presented. The former one is used to calibrate the main point drift, focal length error and distortions of optical systems while the latter estimates the image-plane rotary-tilt errors. With this calibration method, the precision of star image point position influenced by the above errors is greatly improved from 15.42% to 1.389%. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the presented measurement error model for star sensors has higher precision. Moreover, the proposed two-step method can effectively calibrate model error parameters, and the calibration precision of on-orbit star sensors is also improved obviously.

  4. On the sub-model errors of a generalized one-way coupling scheme for linking models at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Jicai; Zha, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yonggen; Shi, Liangsheng; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2017-11-01

    Multi-scale modeling of the localized groundwater flow problems in a large-scale aquifer has been extensively investigated under the context of cost-benefit controversy. An alternative is to couple the parent and child models with different spatial and temporal scales, which may result in non-trivial sub-model errors in the local areas of interest. Basically, such errors in the child models originate from the deficiency in the coupling methods, as well as from the inadequacy in the spatial and temporal discretizations of the parent and child models. In this study, we investigate the sub-model errors within a generalized one-way coupling scheme given its numerical stability and efficiency, which enables more flexibility in choosing sub-models. To couple the models at different scales, the head solution at parent scale is delivered downward onto the child boundary nodes by means of the spatial and temporal head interpolation approaches. The efficiency of the coupling model is improved either by refining the grid or time step size in the parent and child models, or by carefully locating the sub-model boundary nodes. The temporal truncation errors in the sub-models can be significantly reduced by the adaptive local time-stepping scheme. The generalized one-way coupling scheme is promising to handle the multi-scale groundwater flow problems with complex stresses and heterogeneity.

  5. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two ....... These properties make it more suitable for off-line applications. The IND can help in diagnosing the causes of output errors and is computationally inexpensive. It produces best results on short forecast horizons that are typical for online applications.......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  6. Error-Rate Estimation Based on Multi-Signal Flow Graph Model and Accelerated Radiation Tests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei He

    Full Text Available A method of evaluating the single-event effect soft-error vulnerability of space instruments before launched has been an active research topic in recent years. In this paper, a multi-signal flow graph model is introduced to analyze the fault diagnosis and meantime to failure (MTTF for space instruments. A model for the system functional error rate (SFER is proposed. In addition, an experimental method and accelerated radiation testing system for a signal processing platform based on the field programmable gate array (FPGA is presented. Based on experimental results of different ions (O, Si, Cl, Ti under the HI-13 Tandem Accelerator, the SFER of the signal processing platform is approximately 10-3(error/particle/cm2, while the MTTF is approximately 110.7 h.

  7. A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

  8. Error detection in GPS observations by means of Multi-process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Henrik F.

    2001-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is to present the idea of using Multi-process models as a method of detecting errors in GPS observations. The theory behind Multi-process models, and double differenced phase observations in GPS is presented shortly. It is shown how to model cycle slips in the Multi......-process context by means of a simple simulation. The simulation is used to illustrate how the method works, and it is concluded that the method deserves further investigation....

  9. multi-scale data assimilation approaches and error characterisation applied to the inverse modelling of atmospheric constituent emission fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koohkan, Mohammad Reza

    2012-01-01

    Data assimilation in geophysical sciences aims at optimally estimating the state of the system or some parameters of the system's physical model. To do so, data assimilation needs three types of information: observations and background information, a physical/numerical model, and some statistical description that prescribes uncertainties to each component of the system. In my dissertation, new methodologies of data assimilation are used in atmospheric chemistry and physics: the joint use of a 4D-Var with a sub-grid statistical model to consistently account for representativeness errors, accounting for multiple scale in the BLUE estimation principle, and a better estimation of prior errors using objective estimation of hyper-parameters. These three approaches will be specifically applied to inverse modelling problems focusing on the emission fields of tracers or pollutants. First, in order to estimate the emission inventories of carbon monoxide over France, in-situ stations which are impacted by the representativeness errors are used. A sub-grid model is introduced and coupled with a 4D-Var to reduce the representativeness error. Indeed, the results of inverse modelling showed that the 4D-Var routine was not fit to handle the representativeness issues. The coupled data assimilation system led to a much better representation of the CO concentration variability, with a significant improvement of statistical indicators, and more consistent estimation of the CO emission inventory. Second, the evaluation of the potential of the IMS (International Monitoring System) radionuclide network is performed for the inversion of an accidental source. In order to assess the performance of the global network, a multi-scale adaptive grid is optimised using a criterion based on degrees of freedom for the signal (DFS). The results show that several specific regions remain poorly observed by the IMS network. Finally, the inversion of the surface fluxes of Volatile Organic Compounds

  10. The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Matthew S; Kenny, David A; MacKinnon, David P

    2016-01-01

    Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator-to-outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. To explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the effect of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect.

  11. The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Matthew S.; Kenny, David A.; MacKinnon, David P.

    2016-01-01

    Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator to outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. In order to explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the impact of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect. PMID:27739903

  12. Range walk error correction and modeling on Pseudo-random photon counting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Shanshan; Chen, Qian; He, Weiji

    2017-08-01

    Signal to noise ratio and depth accuracy are modeled for the pseudo-random ranging system with two random processes. The theoretical results, developed herein, capture the effects of code length and signal energy fluctuation are shown to agree with Monte Carlo simulation measurements. First, the SNR is developed as a function of the code length. Using Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (GMAPDs), longer code length is proven to reduce the noise effect and improve SNR. Second, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is derived to justify that longer code length can bring better range accuracy. Combined with the SNR model and CRLB model, it is manifested that the range accuracy can be improved by increasing the code length to reduce the noise-induced error. Third, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is shown to converge to the previously published theories and introduce the Gauss range walk model to range accuracy. Experimental tests also converge to the presented boundary model in this paper. It has been proven that depth error caused by the fluctuation of the number of detected photon counts in the laser echo pulse leads to the depth drift of Time Point Spread Function (TPSF). Finally, numerical fitting function is used to determine the relationship between the depth error and the photon counting ratio. Depth error due to different echo energy is calibrated so that the corrected depth accuracy is improved to 1cm.

  13. A Point Kinetics Model for Estimating Neutron Multiplication of Bare Uranium Metal in Tagged Neutron Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweardy, Matthew C.; McConchie, Seth; Hayward, Jason P.

    2017-07-01

    An extension of the point kinetics model is developed to describe the neutron multiplicity response of a bare uranium object under interrogation by an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium (D-T) measurement system. This extended model is used to estimate the total neutron multiplication of the uranium. Both MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and data from active interrogation measurements of highly enriched and depleted uranium geometries are used to evaluate the potential of this method and to identify the sources of systematic error. The detection efficiency correction for measured coincidence response is identified as a large source of systematic error. If the detection process is not considered, results suggest that the method can estimate total multiplication to within 13% of the simulated value. Values for multiplicity constants in the point kinetics equations are sensitive to enrichment due to (n, xn) interactions by D-T neutrons and can introduce another significant source of systematic bias. This can theoretically be corrected if isotopic composition is known a priori. The spatial dependence of multiplication is also suspected of introducing further systematic bias for high multiplication uranium objects.

  14. Bayesian modelling of multiple diagnostics at Wendelstein 7-X using the Minerva framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Sehyun; Svensson, Jakob; Bozhenkov, Sergey; Trimino Mora, Humberto; Hoefel, Udo; Pavone, Andrea; Krychowiak, Maciej; Langenberg, Andreas; Ghim, Young-Chul; W7-X Team Team

    2017-10-01

    Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is a large scale optimised stellarator designed for steady-state operation with fusion reactor relevant conditions. Consistent inference of physics parameters and their associated uncertainties requires the capability to handle the complexity of the entire system, including physics models of multiple diagnostics. A Bayesian model has been developed in the Minerva framework to infer electron temperature and density profiles from multiple diagnostics in a consistent way. Here, the physics models predict the data of multiple diagnostics in a joint Bayesian analysis. The electron temperature and density profiles are modelled by Gaussian processes with hyperparameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods explore the full posterior of electron temperature and density profiles as well as possible combinations of hyperparameters and calibration factors. This results in a profile inference with proper uncertainties reflecting both statistical error and the automatic calibration for diagnostics.

  15. Statistical modelling of measurement errors in gas chromatographic analyses of blood alcohol content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroni, Rossana; Blomstedt, Paul; Wilhelm, Lars; Reinikainen, Tapani; Sippola, Erkki; Corander, Jukka

    2010-10-10

    Headspace gas chromatographic measurements of ethanol content in blood specimens from suspect drunk drivers are routinely carried out in forensic laboratories. In the widely established standard statistical framework, measurement errors in such data are represented by Gaussian distributions for the population of blood specimens at any given level of ethanol content. It is known that the variance of measurement errors increases as a function of the level of ethanol content and the standard statistical approach addresses this issue by replacing the unknown population variances by estimates derived from large sample using a linear regression model. Appropriate statistical analysis of the systematic and random components in the measurement errors is necessary in order to guarantee legally sound security corrections reported to the police authority. Here we address this issue by developing a novel statistical approach that takes into account any potential non-linearity in the relationship between the level of ethanol content and the variability of measurement errors. Our method is based on standard non-parametric kernel techniques for density estimation using a large database of laboratory measurements for blood specimens. Furthermore, we address also the issue of systematic errors in the measurement process by a statistical model that incorporates the sign of the error term in the security correction calculations. Analysis of a set of certified reference materials (CRMs) blood samples demonstrates the importance of explicitly handling the direction of the systematic errors in establishing the statistical uncertainty about the true level of ethanol content. Use of our statistical framework to aid quality control in the laboratory is also discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A comparison between different error modeling of MEMS applied to GPS/INS integrated systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinchia, Alex G; Falco, Gianluca; Falletti, Emanuela; Dovis, Fabio; Ferrer, Carles

    2013-07-24

    Advances in the development of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) have made possible the fabrication of cheap and small dimension accelerometers and gyroscopes, which are being used in many applications where the global positioning system (GPS) and the inertial navigation system (INS) integration is carried out, i.e., identifying track defects, terrestrial and pedestrian navigation, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), stabilization of many platforms, etc. Although these MEMS sensors are low-cost, they present different errors, which degrade the accuracy of the navigation systems in a short period of time. Therefore, a suitable modeling of these errors is necessary in order to minimize them and, consequently, improve the system performance. In this work, the most used techniques currently to analyze the stochastic errors that affect these sensors are shown and compared: we examine in detail the autocorrelation, the Allan variance (AV) and the power spectral density (PSD) techniques. Subsequently, an analysis and modeling of the inertial sensors, which combines autoregressive (AR) filters and wavelet de-noising, is also achieved. Since a low-cost INS (MEMS grade) presents error sources with short-term (high-frequency) and long-term (low-frequency) components, we introduce a method that compensates for these error terms by doing a complete analysis of Allan variance, wavelet de-nosing and the selection of the level of decomposition for a suitable combination between these techniques. Eventually, in order to assess the stochastic models obtained with these techniques, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) of a loosely-coupled GPS/INS integration strategy is augmented with different states. Results show a comparison between the proposed method and the traditional sensor error models under GPS signal blockages using real data collected in urban roadways.

  17. A Comparison between Different Error Modeling of MEMS Applied to GPS/INS Integrated Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Dovis

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Advances in the development of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS have made possible the fabrication of cheap and small dimension accelerometers and gyroscopes, which are being used in many applications where the global positioning system (GPS and the inertial navigation system (INS integration is carried out, i.e., identifying track defects, terrestrial and pedestrian navigation, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, stabilization of many platforms, etc. Although these MEMS sensors are low-cost, they present different errors, which degrade the accuracy of the navigation systems in a short period of time. Therefore, a suitable modeling of these errors is necessary in order to minimize them and, consequently, improve the system performance. In this work, the most used techniques currently to analyze the stochastic errors that affect these sensors are shown and compared: we examine in detail the autocorrelation, the Allan variance (AV and the power spectral density (PSD techniques. Subsequently, an analysis and modeling of the inertial sensors, which combines autoregressive (AR filters and wavelet de-noising, is also achieved. Since a low-cost INS (MEMS grade presents error sources with short-term (high-frequency and long-term (low-frequency components, we introduce a method that compensates for these error terms by doing a complete analysis of Allan variance, wavelet de-nosing and the selection of the level of decomposition for a suitable combination between these techniques. Eventually, in order to assess the stochastic models obtained with these techniques, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF of a loosely-coupled GPS/INS integration strategy is augmented with different states. Results show a comparison between the proposed method and the traditional sensor error models under GPS signal blockages using real data collected in urban roadways.

  18. A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha

    2017-01-01

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.

  19. A method for the quantification of model form error associated with physical systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallen, Samuel P.; Brake, Matthew Robert

    2014-03-01

    In the process of model validation, models are often declared valid when the differences between model predictions and experimental data sets are satisfactorily small. However, little consideration is given to the effectiveness of a model using parameters that deviate slightly from those that were fitted to data, such as a higher load level. Furthermore, few means exist to compare and choose between two or more models that reproduce data equally well. These issues can be addressed by analyzing model form error, which is the error associated with the differences between the physical phenomena captured by models and that of the real system. This report presents a new quantitative method for model form error analysis and applies it to data taken from experiments on tape joint bending vibrations. Two models for the tape joint system are compared, and suggestions for future improvements to the method are given. As the available data set is too small to draw any statistical conclusions, the focus of this paper is the development of a methodology that can be applied to general problems.

  20. Insights on the impact of systematic model errors on data assimilation performance in changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, S.; Anghileri, D.; Burlando, P.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L.; Moradkhani, H.

    2018-03-01

    The global prevalence of rapid and extensive land use change necessitates hydrologic modelling methodologies capable of handling non-stationarity. This is particularly true in the context of Hydrologic Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Data Assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve forecast skill in hydrologic and meteorological applications, although such improvements are conditional on using bias-free observations and model simulations. A hydrologic model calibrated to a particular set of land cover conditions has the potential to produce biased simulations when the catchment is disturbed. This paper sheds new light on the impacts of bias or systematic errors in hydrologic data assimilation, in the context of forecasting in catchments with changing land surface conditions and a model calibrated to pre-change conditions. We posit that in such cases, the impact of systematic model errors on assimilation or forecast quality is dependent on the inherent prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions. Through experiments on a range of catchments, we develop a conceptual relationship between total prediction uncertainty and the impacts of land cover changes on the hydrologic regime to demonstrate how forecast quality is affected when using state estimation Data Assimilation with no modifications to account for land cover changes. This work shows that systematic model errors as a result of changing or changed catchment conditions do not always necessitate adjustments to the modelling or assimilation methodology, for instance through re-calibration of the hydrologic model, time varying model parameters or revised offline/online bias estimation.

  1. Response errors explain the failure of independent-channels models of perception of temporal order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A García-Pérez

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Independent-channels models of perception of temporal order (also referred to as threshold models or perceptual latency models have been ruled out because two formal properties of these models (monotonicity and parallelism are not borne out by data from ternary tasks in which observers must judge whether stimulus A was presented before, after, or simultaneously with stimulus B. These models generally assume that observed responses are authentic indicators of unobservable judgments, but blinks, lapses of attention, or errors in pressing the response keys (maybe, but not only, motivated by time pressure when reaction times are being recorded may make observers misreport their judgments or simply guess a response. We present an extension of independent-channels models that considers response errors and we show that the model produces psychometric functions that do not satisfy monotonicity and parallelism. The model is illustrated by fitting it to data from a published study in which the ternary task was used. The fitted functions describe very accurately the absence of monotonicity and parallelism shown by the data. These characteristics of empirical data are thus consistent with independent-channels models when response errors are taken into consideration. The implications of these results for the analysis and interpretation of temporal-order judgment data are discussed.

  2. Response errors explain the failure of independent-channels models of perception of temporal order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Pérez, Miguel A; Alcalá-Quintana, Rocío

    2012-01-01

    Independent-channels models of perception of temporal order (also referred to as threshold models or perceptual latency models) have been ruled out because two formal properties of these models (monotonicity and parallelism) are not borne out by data from ternary tasks in which observers must judge whether stimulus A was presented before, after, or simultaneously with stimulus B. These models generally assume that observed responses are authentic indicators of unobservable judgments, but blinks, lapses of attention, or errors in pressing the response keys (maybe, but not only, motivated by time pressure when reaction times are being recorded) may make observers misreport their judgments or simply guess a response. We present an extension of independent-channels models that considers response errors and we show that the model produces psychometric functions that do not satisfy monotonicity and parallelism. The model is illustrated by fitting it to data from a published study in which the ternary task was used. The fitted functions describe very accurately the absence of monotonicity and parallelism shown by the data. These characteristics of empirical data are thus consistent with independent-channels models when response errors are taken into consideration. The implications of these results for the analysis and interpretation of temporal order judgment data are discussed.

  3. Alternative Multiple Imputation Inference for Mean and Covariance Structure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taehun; Cai, Li

    2012-01-01

    Model-based multiple imputation has become an indispensable method in the educational and behavioral sciences. Mean and covariance structure models are often fitted to multiply imputed data sets. However, the presence of multiple random imputations complicates model fit testing, which is an important aspect of mean and covariance structure…

  4. Evolving Four Part Harmony Using a Multiple Worlds Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scirea, Marco; Brown, Joseph Alexander

    2015-01-01

    This application of the Multiple Worlds Model examines a collaborative fitness model for generating four part harmonies. In this model we have multiple populations and the fitness of the individuals is based on the ability of a member from each population to work with the members of other...

  5. A Technique of Fuzzy C-Mean in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Paddy Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syazwan Wahab, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Mohamad, Mahathir; Amira Azmi, Nur; Che Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Ali, Maselan

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid model which is a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. This research involved a relationship between 20 variates of the top soil that are analyzed prior to planting of paddy yields at standard fertilizer rates. Data used were from the multi-location trials for rice carried out by MARDI at major paddy granary in Peninsular Malaysia during the period from 2009 to 2012. Missing observations were estimated using mean estimation techniques. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression model and a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. Analysis of normality and multicollinearity indicate that the data is normally scattered without multicollinearity among independent variables. Analysis of fuzzy c-means cluster the yield of paddy into two clusters before the multiple linear regression model can be used. The comparison between two method indicate that the hybrid of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method outperform the multiple linear regression model with lower value of mean square error.

  6. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

    2012-10-17

    , the mean construct scores were above the mid-point on the scale with median values across the five behaviors generally being above four out of seven and the range being from 1.53 to 6.01. Across all of the theories, the highest proportion of the variance explained was always for intention and the lowest was for behavior. The Knowledge-Attitudes-Behavior Model performed poorly across all behaviors and dependent variables; CSSRM also performed poorly. For TPB, SCT, II, and LT across the five behaviors, we predicted median R2 of 25% to 42.6% for intention, 6.2% to 16% for behavioral simulation, and 2.4% to 6.3% for behavior. We operationalized multiple theories measuring across five behaviors. Continuing challenges that emerge from our work are: better specification of behaviors, better operationalization of theories; how best to appropriately extend the range of theories; further assessment of the value of theories in different settings and groups; exploring the implications of these methods for the management of chronic diseases; and moving to experimental designs to allow an understanding of behavior change.

  7. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eccles Martin P

    2012-10-01

    the five surveys. For the predictor variables, the mean construct scores were above the mid-point on the scale with median values across the five behaviors generally being above four out of seven and the range being from 1.53 to 6.01. Across all of the theories, the highest proportion of the variance explained was always for intention and the lowest was for behavior. The Knowledge-Attitudes-Behavior Model performed poorly across all behaviors and dependent variables; CSSRM also performed poorly. For TPB, SCT, II, and LT across the five behaviors, we predicted median R2 of 25% to 42.6% for intention, 6.2% to 16% for behavioral simulation, and 2.4% to 6.3% for behavior. Conclusions We operationalized multiple theories measuring across five behaviors. Continuing challenges that emerge from our work are: better specification of behaviors, better operationalization of theories; how best to appropriately extend the range of theories; further assessment of the value of theories in different settings and groups; exploring the implications of these methods for the management of chronic diseases; and moving to experimental designs to allow an understanding of behavior change.

  8. Error Analysis on the Estimation of Cumulative Infiltration in Soil Using Green and AMPT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamad Askari

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Green and Ampt infiltration model is still useful for the infiltration process because of a clear physical basis of the model and of the existence of the model parameter values for a wide range of soil. The objective of thise study was to analyze error on the esimation of cumulative infiltration in sooil using Green and Ampt model and to design laboratory experiment in measuring cumulative infiltration. Parameter of the model was determined based on soil physical properties from laboratory experiment. Newton –Raphson method was esed to estimate wetting front during calculation using visual Basic for Application (VBA in MS Word. The result showed that  contributed the highest error in estimation of cumulative infiltration and was followed by K, H0, H1, and t respectively. It also showed that the calculated cumulative infiltration is always lower than both measured cumulative infiltration and volumetric soil water content.

  9. Phantom Effects in School Composition Research: Consequences of Failure to Control Biases Due to Measurement Error in Traditional Multilevel Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Televantou, Ioulia; Marsh, Herbert W.; Kyriakides, Leonidas; Nagengast, Benjamin; Fletcher, John; Malmberg, Lars-Erik

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to quantify the impact of failing to account for measurement error on school compositional effects. Multilevel structural equation models were incorporated to control for measurement error and/or sampling error. Study 1, a large sample of English primary students in Years 1 and 4, revealed a significantly…

  10. Canadian RCM projected climate-change signal and its sensitivity to model errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushama, L.; Laprise, R.; Caya, D.; Frigon, A.; Slivitzky, M.

    2006-12-01

    Climate change is commonly evaluated as the difference between simulated climates under future and current forcings, based on the assumption that systematic errors in the current-climate simulation do not affect the climate-change signal. In this paper, we investigate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) projected climate changes in the climatological means and extremes of selected basin-scale surface fields and its sensitivity to model errors for Fraser, Mackenzie, Yukon, Nelson, Churchill and Mississippi basins, covering the major climate regions in North America, using current (1961-1990) and future climate simulations (2041-2070; A2 and IS92a scenarios) performed with two versions of CRCM.Assessment of errors in both model versions suggests the presence of nonnegligible biases in the surface fields, due primarily to the internal dynamics and physics of the regional model and to the errors in the driving data at the boundaries. In general, results demonstrate that, in spite of the errors in the two model versions, the simulated climate-change signals associated with the long-term monthly climatology of various surface water balance components (such as precipitation, evaporation, snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff and soil moisture) are consistent in sign, but differ in magnitude. The same is found for projected changes to the low-flow characteristics (frequency, timing and return levels) studied here. High-flow characteristics, particularly the seasonal distribution and return levels, appear to be more sensitive to the model version.CRCM climate-change projections indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation for all basins except Mississippi, while annual runoff increases in Fraser, Mackenzie and Yukon basins. A decrease in runoff is projected for Mississippi. A significant decrease in snow cover is projected for all basins, with maximum decrease in Fraser. Significant changes are also noted in the frequency, timing and return levels for low

  11. Autoregressive Modeling of Drift and Random Error to Characterize a Continuous Intravascular Glucose Monitoring Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tony; Dickson, Jennifer L; Geoffrey Chase, J

    2018-01-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices have been effective in managing diabetes and offer potential benefits for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). Use of CGM devices in the ICU has been limited, primarily due to the higher point accuracy errors over currently used traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures. General models of CGM errors, including drift and random errors, are lacking, but would enable better design of protocols to utilize these devices. This article presents an autoregressive (AR) based modeling method that separately characterizes the drift and random noise of the GlySure CGM sensor (GlySure Limited, Oxfordshire, UK). Clinical sensor data (n = 33) and reference measurements were used to generate 2 AR models to describe sensor drift and noise. These models were used to generate 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on reference blood glucose measurements. These were then compared to the original CGM clinical data using mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and a Trend Compass. The point accuracy MARD was very similar between simulated and clinical data (9.6% vs 9.9%). A Trend Compass was used to assess trend accuracy, and found simulated and clinical sensor profiles were similar (simulated trend index 11.4° vs clinical trend index 10.9°). The model and method accurately represents cohort sensor behavior over patients, providing a general modeling approach to any such sensor by separately characterizing each type of error that can arise in the data. Overall, it enables better protocol design based on accurate expected CGM sensor behavior, as well as enabling the analysis of what level of each type of sensor error would be necessary to obtain desired glycemic control safety and performance with a given protocol.

  12. A heteroscedastic measurement error model for method comparison data with replicate measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawarathna, Lakshika S; Choudhary, Pankaj K

    2015-03-30

    Measurement error models offer a flexible framework for modeling data collected in studies comparing methods of quantitative measurement. These models generally make two simplifying assumptions: (i) the measurements are homoscedastic, and (ii) the unobservable true values of the methods are linearly related. One or both of these assumptions may be violated in practice. In particular, error variabilities of the methods may depend on the magnitude of measurement, or the true values may be nonlinearly related. Data with these features call for a heteroscedastic measurement error model that allows nonlinear relationships in the true values. We present such a model for the case when the measurements are replicated, discuss its fitting, and explain how to evaluate similarity of measurement methods and agreement between them, which are two common goals of data analysis, under this model. Model fitting involves dealing with lack of a closed form for the likelihood function. We consider estimation methods that approximate either the likelihood or the model to yield approximate maximum likelihood estimates. The fitting methods are evaluated in a simulation study. The proposed methodology is used to analyze a cholesterol dataset. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, T.; Diks, C.; Li, H.

    We estimate the CAPM model on European stock market data, allowing for asymmetric and fat-tailed return distributions using independent and identically asymmetric power distributed (IIAPD) innovations. The results indicate that the generalized CAPM with IIAPD errors has desirable properties. It is

  14. Modeling human tracking error in several different anti-tank systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, D. L.

    1981-01-01

    An optimal control model for generating time histories of human tracking errors in antitank systems is outlined. Monte Carlo simulations of human operator responses for three Army antitank systems are compared. System/manipulator dependent data comparisons reflecting human operator limitations in perceiving displayed quantities and executing intended control motions are presented. Motor noise parameters are also discussed.

  15. Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2018-01-01

    Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

  16. The Preisach hysteresis model: Error bounds for numerical identification and inversion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 1 (2013), s. 101-119 ISSN 1937-1632 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/10/2315 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : hysteresis * Preisach model * error bounds Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://www.aimsciences.org/journals/displayArticlesnew.jsp?paperID=7779

  17. Filter design for failure detection and isolation in the presence of modeling errors and disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    The design problem of filters for robust failure detection and isolation, (FDI) is addressed in this paper. The failure detection problem will be considered with respect to both modeling errors and disturbances. Both an approach based on failure detection observers as well as an approach based on...

  18. A new stochastic model considering satellite clock interpolation errors in precise point positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shengli; Yang, Fanlin; Gao, Wang; Yan, Lizi; Ge, Yulong

    2018-03-01

    Precise clock products are typically interpolated based on the sampling interval of the observational data when they are used for in precise point positioning. However, due to the occurrence of white noise in atomic clocks, a residual component of such noise will inevitable reside within the observations when clock errors are interpolated, and such noise will affect the resolution of the positioning results. In this paper, which is based on a twenty-one-week analysis of the atomic clock noise characteristics of numerous satellites, a new stochastic observation model that considers satellite clock interpolation errors is proposed. First, the systematic error of each satellite in the IGR clock product was extracted using a wavelet de-noising method to obtain the empirical characteristics of atomic clock noise within each clock product. Then, based on those empirical characteristics, a stochastic observation model was structured that considered the satellite clock interpolation errors. Subsequently, the IGR and IGS clock products at different time intervals were used for experimental validation. A verification using 179 stations worldwide from the IGS showed that, compared with the conventional model, the convergence times using the stochastic model proposed in this study were respectively shortened by 4.8% and 4.0% when the IGR and IGS 300-s-interval clock products were used and by 19.1% and 19.4% when the 900-s-interval clock products were used. Furthermore, the disturbances during the initial phase of the calculation were also effectively improved.

  19. Measurement Error and Bias in Value-Added Models. Research Report. ETS RR-17-25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Michael T.

    2017-01-01

    By aggregating residual gain scores (the differences between each student's current score and a predicted score based on prior performance) for a school or a teacher, value-added models (VAMs) can be used to generate estimates of school or teacher effects. It is known that random errors in the prior scores will introduce bias into predictions of…

  20. Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallin, M.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper introduces rank-based tests for the cointegrating rank in an Error Correction Model with i.i.d. elliptical innovations. The tests are asymptotically distribution-free, and their validity does not depend on the actual distribution of the innovations. This result holds despite the

  1. Error Analysis of Some Demand Simplifications in Hydraulic Models of Water Supply Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Izquierdo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modeling of water distribution networks makes use of simplifications aimed to optimize the development and use of the mathematical models involved. Simplified models are used systematically by water utilities, frequently with no awareness of the implications of the assumptions used. Some simplifications are derived from the various levels of granularity at which a network can be considered. This is the case of some demand simplifications, specifically, when consumptions associated with a line are equally allocated to the ends of the line. In this paper, we present examples of situations where this kind of simplification produces models that are very unrealistic. We also identify the main variables responsible for the errors. By performing some error analysis, we assess to what extent such a simplification is valid. Using this information, guidelines are provided that enable the user to establish if a given simplification is acceptable or, on the contrary, supplies information that differs substantially from reality. We also develop easy to implement formulae that enable the allocation of inner line demand to the line ends with minimal error; finally, we assess the errors associated with the simplification and locate the points of a line where maximum discrepancies occur.

  2. Sensitivity of subject-specific models to errors in musculo-skeletal geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carbone, V.; van der Krogt, M.M.; Koopman, H.F.J.M.; Verdonschot, N.

    2012-01-01

    Subject-specific musculo-skeletal models of the lower extremity are an important tool for investigating various biomechanical problems, for instance the results of surgery such as joint replacements and tendon transfers. The aim of this study was to assess the potential effects of errors in

  3. A method for sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of measurement error in multiple exposure variables using external validation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George O. Agogo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Measurement error in self-reported dietary intakes is known to bias the association between dietary intake and a health outcome of interest such as risk of a disease. The association can be distorted further by mismeasured confounders, leading to invalid results and conclusions. It is, however, difficult to adjust for the bias in the association when there is no internal validation data. Methods We proposed a method to adjust for the bias in the diet-disease association (hereafter, association, due to measurement error in dietary intake and a mismeasured confounder, when there is no internal validation data. The method combines prior information on the validity of the self-report instrument with the observed data to adjust for the bias in the association. We compared the proposed method with the method that ignores the confounder effect, and with the method that ignores measurement errors completely. We assessed the sensitivity of the estimates to various magnitudes of measurement error, error correlations and uncertainty in the literature-reported validation data. We applied the methods to fruits and vegetables (FV intakes, cigarette smoking (confounder and all-cause mortality data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results Using the proposed method resulted in about four times increase in the strength of association between FV intake and mortality. For weakly correlated errors, measurement error in the confounder minimally affected the hazard ratio estimate for FV intake. The effect was more pronounced for strong error correlations. Conclusions The proposed method permits sensitivity analysis on measurement error structures and accounts for uncertainties in the reported validity coefficients. The method is useful in assessing the direction and quantifying the magnitude of bias in the association due to measurement errors in the confounders.

  4. Sharp Threshold Detection Based on Sup-norm Error rates in High-dimensional Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callot, Laurent; Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    We propose a new estimator, the thresholded scaled Lasso, in high dimensional threshold regressions. First, we establish an upper bound on the sup-norm estimation error of the scaled Lasso estimator of Lee et al. (2012). This is a non-trivial task as the literature on highdimensional models has...... focused almost exclusively on estimation errors in stronger norms. We show that this sup-norm bound can be used to distinguish between zero and non-zero coefficients at a much finer scale than would have been possible using classical oracle inequalities. Thus, our sup-norm bound is tailored to consistent...

  5. Goal-oriented error estimation for Cahn-Hilliard models of binary phase transition

    KAUST Repository

    van der Zee, Kristoffer G.

    2010-10-27

    A posteriori estimates of errors in quantities of interest are developed for the nonlinear system of evolution equations embodied in the Cahn-Hilliard model of binary phase transition. These involve the analysis of wellposedness of dual backward-in-time problems and the calculation of residuals. Mixed finite element approximations are developed and used to deliver numerical solutions of representative problems in one- and two-dimensional domains. Estimated errors are shown to be quite accurate in these numerical examples. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2009-01-01

    that alleviates these simplifying assumptions concerning (i) the number of alternatives, (ii) the representation of choice set formation, and (iii) the error structure. The proposed semi-compensatory model represents a sequence of choice set formation based on the conjunctive heuristic with correlated thresholds......, and utility-based choice accommodating alternatively nested substitution patterns across the alternatives and random taste variation across the population. The proposed model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice of students. Results show (i) the estimated model for a universal realm of 200...... alternatives and 41 choice sets, (ii) the threshold representation as a function of individual characteristics, and (iii) the feasibility and importance of introducing a flexible error structure into semi-compensatory models....

  7. Implementation of an operator model with error mechanisms for nuclear power plant control room operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, Sang Moon; Cheon, Se Woo; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jung Woon; Park, Young Taek

    1996-01-01

    SACOM(Simulation Analyser with Cognitive Operator Model) is being developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute to simulate human operator's cognitive characteristics during the emergency situations of nuclear power plans. An operator model with error mechanisms has been developed and combined into SACOM to simulate human operator's cognitive information process based on the Rasmussen's decision ladder model. The operational logic for five different cognitive activities (Agents), operator's attentional control (Controller), short-term memory (Blackboard), and long-term memory (Knowledge Base) have been developed and implemented on blackboard architecture. A trial simulation with a scenario for emergency operation has been performed to verify the operational logic. It was found that the operator model with error mechanisms is suitable for the simulation of operator's cognitive behavior in emergency situation

  8. Mutation-selection dynamics and error threshold in an evolutionary model for Turing machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musso, Fabio; Feverati, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the mutation-selection dynamics for an evolutionary computation model based on Turing machines. The use of Turing machines allows for very simple mechanisms of code growth and code activation/inactivation through point mutations. To any value of the point mutation probability corresponds a maximum amount of active code that can be maintained by selection and the Turing machines that reach it are said to be at the error threshold. Simulations with our model show that the Turing machines population evolve toward the error threshold. Mathematical descriptions of the model point out that this behaviour is due more to the mutation-selection dynamics than to the intrinsic nature of the Turing machines. This indicates that this result is much more general than the model considered here and could play a role also in biological evolution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Three-dimensional ray-tracing model for the study of advanced refractive errors in keratoconus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schedin, Staffan; Hallberg, Per; Behndig, Anders

    2016-01-20

    We propose a numerical three-dimensional (3D) ray-tracing model for the analysis of advanced corneal refractive errors. The 3D modeling was based on measured corneal elevation data by means of Scheimpflug photography. A mathematical description of the measured corneal surfaces from a keratoconus (KC) patient was used for the 3D ray tracing, based on Snell's law of refraction. A model of a commercial intraocular lens (IOL) was included in the analysis. By modifying the posterior IOL surface, it was shown that the imaging quality could be significantly improved. The RMS values were reduced by approximately 50% close to the retina, both for on- and off-axis geometries. The 3D ray-tracing model can constitute a basis for simulation of customized IOLs that are able to correct the advanced, irregular refractive errors in KC.

  10. Affine LIBOR Models with Multiple Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grbac, Zorana; Papapantoleon, Antonis; Schoenmakers, John

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semianalytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negative rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The dynamics of overnight indexed swap and LIBOR rates...

  11. The speed of memory errors shows the influence of misleading information: Testing the diffusion model and discrete-state models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starns, Jeffrey J; Dubé, Chad; Frelinger, Matthew E

    2018-05-01

    In this report, we evaluate single-item and forced-choice recognition memory for the same items and use the resulting accuracy and reaction time data to test the predictions of discrete-state and continuous models. For the single-item trials, participants saw a word and indicated whether or not it was studied on a previous list. The forced-choice trials had one studied and one non-studied word that both appeared in the earlier single-item trials and both received the same response. Thus, forced-choice trials always had one word with a previous correct response and one with a previous error. Participants were asked to select the studied word regardless of whether they previously called both words "studied" or "not studied." The diffusion model predicts that forced-choice accuracy should be lower when the word with a previous error had a fast versus a slow single-item RT, because fast errors are associated with more compelling misleading memory retrieval. The two-high-threshold (2HT) model does not share this prediction because all errors are guesses, so error RT is not related to memory strength. A low-threshold version of the discrete state approach predicts an effect similar to the diffusion model, because errors are a mixture of responses based on misleading retrieval and guesses, and the guesses should tend to be slower. Results showed that faster single-trial errors were associated with lower forced-choice accuracy, as predicted by the diffusion and low-threshold models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Functional mapping of left parietal areas involved in simple addition and multiplication. A single-case study of qualitative analysis of errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della Puppa, Alessandro; De Pellegrin, Serena; Salillas, Elena; Grego, Alberto; Lazzarini, Anna; Vallesi, Antonino; Saladini, Marina; Semenza, Carlo

    2015-09-01

    All electrostimulation studies on arithmetic have so far solely reported general errors. Nonetheless, a classification of the errors during stimulation can inform us about underlying arithmetic processes. The present electrostimulation study was performed in a case of left parietal glioma. The patient's erroneous responses suggested that calculation was mainly applied for addition and a combination of retrieval and calculation was mainly applied for multiplication. The findings of the present single-case study encourage follow up with further data collection with the same paradigm. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  13. A New Method to Solving AR Model Parameters Considering Random Errors of Design Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YAO Yibin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The ordinary least square method could not solve the problem that the error exist both in design matrix and observation vector while compute parameter values of AR model. In this article, a new method is proposed which consider the random errors of design matrix. The source of design matrix and observation vector is same and the amount of parameters contain error can be equal by introducing virtual observation. Then, this problem could be solved under the framework of normal least square by equivalence transformation of observation equation. The result of this new method is superior to SVD method and normal least square method by simulation date and observation data which verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

  14. The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

    2016-06-01

    This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

  15. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  16. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinowski, Kathleen T.; McAvoy, Thomas J.; George, Rohini; Dieterich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor–surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor–surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor–surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3–3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.

  17. A dynamic model to predict modulation sidebands of a planetary gear set having manufacturing errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inalpolat, Murat; Kahraman, Ahmet

    2010-02-01

    In this study, a nonlinear time-varying dynamic model is proposed to predict modulation sidebands of planetary gear sets. This discrete dynamic model includes periodically time-varying gear mesh stiffnesses and the nonlinearities associated with tooth separations. The model uses forms of gear mesh interface excitations that are amplitude and frequency modulated due to a class of gear manufacturing errors to predict dynamic forces at all sun-planet and ring-planet gear meshes. The predicted gear mesh force spectra are shown to exhibit well-defined modulation sidebands at frequencies associated with the rotational speeds of gears relative to the planet carrier. This model is further combined with a previously developed model that accounts for amplitude modulations due to rotation of the carrier to predict acceleration spectra at a fixed position in the planetary transmission housing. Individual contributions of each gear error in the form of amplitude and frequency modulations are illustrated through an example analysis. Comparisons are made to measured spectra to demonstrate the capability of the model in predicting the sidebands of a planetary gear set with gear manufacturing errors and a rotating carrier.

  18. Use of Multiple Models in CarbonTracker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, A. R.; Baker, D. F.; Valsala, V.; van der Werf, G.; Kawa, S. R.; Masarie, K.; Trudeau, M. E.; Oda, T.; Peters, W.; Tans, P. P.

    2011-12-01

    The CarbonTracker atmospheric CO2 analysis system historically has used one atmospheric transport model (TM5 with ECMWF forecast model winds), one terrestrial biosphere model (a CASA variant used by the GFED fire emissions project), and one model each of air-sea exchange and fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide. While careful attention has been paid to mitigating the effects of imperfectly-known transport and prior flux errors, chracteristics of these models propagate through the Bayesian analysis to CarbonTracker's optimized surface flux estimates. In an attempt to assess these effects and to capture the uncertainty associated with model errors, we have expanded CarbonTracker to use a suite of prior flux models and two atmospheric transport estimates. In this presentation, we will discuss the impact of these changes on CarbonTracker results, and the challenges associated with incorporating disparate flux priors and transport estimates in an inversion framework.

  19. Quantifying the Representation Error of Land Biosphere Models using High Resolution Footprint Analyses and UAS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, C. V.; Schmidt, A.; Law, B. E.; Moore, W.

    2015-12-01

    The validity of land biosphere model outputs rely on accurate representations of ecosystem processes within the model. Typically, a vegetation or land cover type for a given area (several Km squared or larger resolution), is assumed to have uniform properties. The limited spacial and temporal resolution of models prevents resolving finer scale heterogeneous flux patterns that arise from variations in vegetation. This representation error must be quantified carefully if models are informed through data assimilation in order to assign appropriate weighting of model outputs and measurement data. The representation error is usually only estimated or ignored entirely due to the difficulty in determining reasonable values. UAS based gas sensors allow measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with unprecedented spacial resolution, providing a means of determining the representation error for CO2 fluxes empirically. In this study we use three dimensional CO2 concentration data in combination with high resolution footprint analyses in order to quantify the representation error for modelled CO2 fluxes for typical resolutions of regional land biosphere models. CO2 concentration data were collected using an Atlatl X6A hexa-copter, carrying a highly calibrated closed path infra-red gas analyzer based sampling system with an uncertainty of ≤ ±0.2 ppm CO2. Gas concentration data was mapped in three dimensions using the UAS on-board position data and compared to footprints generated using WRF 3.61. Chad Hanson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Andres Schmidt, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Bev Law, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  20. Classification errors in contingency tables analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models. Technical report No. 20

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korn, E L

    1978-08-01

    This thesis is concerned with the effect of classification error on contingency tables being analyzed with hierarchical log-linear models (independence in an I x J table is a particular hierarchical log-linear model). Hierarchical log-linear models provide a concise way of describing independence and partial independences between the different dimensions of a contingency table. The structure of classification errors on contingency tables that will be used throughout is defined. This structure is a generalization of Bross' model, but here attention is paid to the different possible ways a contingency table can be sampled. Hierarchical log-linear models and the effect of misclassification on them are described. Some models, such as independence in an I x J table, are preserved by misclassification, i.e., the presence of classification error will not change the fact that a specific table belongs to that model. Other models are not preserved by misclassification; this implies that the usual tests to see if a sampled table belong to that model will not be of the right significance level. A simple criterion will be given to determine which hierarchical log-linear models are preserved by misclassification. Maximum likelihood theory is used to perform log-linear model analysis in the presence of known misclassification probabilities. It will be shown that the Pitman asymptotic power of tests between different hierarchical log-linear models is reduced because of the misclassification. A general expression will be given for the increase in sample size necessary to compensate for this loss of power and some specific cases will be examined.

  1. Expected estimating equation using calibration data for generalized linear models with a mixture of Berkson and classical errors in covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsoba, Jean de Dieu; Lee, Shen-Ming; Wang, Ching-Yun

    2014-02-20

    Data collected in many epidemiological or clinical research studies are often contaminated with measurement errors that may be of classical or Berkson error type. The measurement error may also be a combination of both classical and Berkson errors and failure to account for both errors could lead to unreliable inference in many situations. We consider regression analysis in generalized linear models when some covariates are prone to a mixture of Berkson and classical errors, and calibration data are available only for some subjects in a subsample. We propose an expected estimating equation approach to accommodate both errors in generalized linear regression analyses. The proposed method can consistently estimate the classical and Berkson error variances based on the available data, without knowing the mixture percentage. We investigated its finite-sample performance numerically. Our method is illustrated by an application to real data from an HIV vaccine study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  3. Challenges in LCA modelling of multiple loops for aluminium cans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Olsen, Stig Irving

    one of the main features of circular product systems, i.e. the need to model multiple life cycles. There are some key methodological challenges that LCA has to face in order to exploit its potential in a circular economy framework, e.g. how to model the recycling of materials in multiple loops. We...

  4. Multiple Δt strategy for particle image velocimetry (PIV) error correction, applied to a hot propulsive jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogueira, J; Lecuona, A; Nauri, S; Legrand, M; Rodríguez, P A

    2009-01-01

    PIV (particle image velocimetry) is a measurement technique with growing application to the study of complex flows with relevance to industry. This work is focused on the assessment of some significant PIV measurement errors. In particular, procedures are proposed for estimating, and sometimes correcting, errors coming from the sensor geometry and performance, namely peak-locking and contemporary CCD camera read-out errors. Although the procedures are of general application to PIV, they are applied to a particular real case, giving an example of the methodology steps and the improvement in results that can be obtained. This real case corresponds to an ensemble of hot high-speed coaxial jets, representative of the civil transport aircraft propulsion system using turbofan engines. Errors of ∼0.1 pixels displacements have been assessed. This means 10% of the measured magnitude at many points. These results allow the uncertainty interval associated with the measurement to be provided and, under some circumstances, the correction of some of the bias components of the errors. The detection of conditions where the peak-locking error has a period of 2 pixels instead of the classical 1 pixel has been made possible using these procedures. In addition to the increased worth of the measurement, the uncertainty assessment is of interest for the validation of CFD codes

  5. Multiple Δt strategy for particle image velocimetry (PIV) error correction, applied to a hot propulsive jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, J.; Lecuona, A.; Nauri, S.; Legrand, M.; Rodríguez, P. A.

    2009-07-01

    PIV (particle image velocimetry) is a measurement technique with growing application to the study of complex flows with relevance to industry. This work is focused on the assessment of some significant PIV measurement errors. In particular, procedures are proposed for estimating, and sometimes correcting, errors coming from the sensor geometry and performance, namely peak-locking and contemporary CCD camera read-out errors. Although the procedures are of general application to PIV, they are applied to a particular real case, giving an example of the methodology steps and the improvement in results that can be obtained. This real case corresponds to an ensemble of hot high-speed coaxial jets, representative of the civil transport aircraft propulsion system using turbofan engines. Errors of ~0.1 pixels displacements have been assessed. This means 10% of the measured magnitude at many points. These results allow the uncertainty interval associated with the measurement to be provided and, under some circumstances, the correction of some of the bias components of the errors. The detection of conditions where the peak-locking error has a period of 2 pixels instead of the classical 1 pixel has been made possible using these procedures. In addition to the increased worth of the measurement, the uncertainty assessment is of interest for the validation of CFD codes.

  6. A comparison of two least-squared random coefficient autoregressive models: with and without autocorrelated errors

    OpenAIRE

    Autcha Araveeporn

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares a Least-Squared Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model with a Least-Squared RCA model based on Autocorrelated Errors (RCA-AR). We looked at only the first order models, denoted RCA(1) and RCA(1)-AR(1). The efficiency of the Least-Squared method was checked by applying the models to Brownian motion and Wiener process, and the efficiency followed closely the asymptotic properties of a normal distribution. In a simulation study, we compared the performance of RCA(1) an...

  7. Parametric bootstrap methods for testing multiplicative terms in GGE and AMMI models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkman, Johannes; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2014-09-01

    The genotype main effects and genotype-by-environment interaction effects (GGE) model and the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model are two common models for analysis of genotype-by-environment data. These models are frequently used by agronomists, plant breeders, geneticists and statisticians for analysis of multi-environment trials. In such trials, a set of genotypes, for example, crop cultivars, are compared across a range of environments, for example, locations. The GGE and AMMI models use singular value decomposition to partition genotype-by-environment interaction into an ordered sum of multiplicative terms. This article deals with the problem of testing the significance of these multiplicative terms in order to decide how many terms to retain in the final model. We propose parametric bootstrap methods for this problem. Models with fixed main effects, fixed multiplicative terms and random normally distributed errors are considered. Two methods are derived: a full and a simple parametric bootstrap method. These are compared with the alternatives of using approximate F-tests and cross-validation. In a simulation study based on four multi-environment trials, both bootstrap methods performed well with regard to Type I error rate and power. The simple parametric bootstrap method is particularly easy to use, since it only involves repeated sampling of standard normally distributed values. This method is recommended for selecting the number of multiplicative terms in GGE and AMMI models. The proposed methods can also be used for testing components in principal component analysis. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  8. The Export Supply Model of Bangladesh: An Application of Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmudul Mannan Toy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the export supply model of Bangladesh. The techniques of cointegration, Engle-Granger causality and Vector Error Correction are applied to estimate the export supply model. The econometric analysis is done by using the time series data of the variables of interest which is collected from various secondary sources. The study has empirically tested the hypothesis, long run relationship and casualty between variables of the model. The cointegration analysis shows that all the variables of the study are co-integrated at their first differences meaning that there exists long run relationship among the variables. The VECM estimation shows the dynamics of variables in the export supply function and the short run and long run elasticities of export supply with respect to each independent variable. The error correction term is found negative which indicates that any short run disequilibrium will be turned into equilibrium in the long run.

  9. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  10. Dynamic time warping in phoneme modeling for fast pronunciation error detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miodonska, Zuzanna; Bugdol, Marcin D; Krecichwost, Michal

    2016-02-01

    The presented paper describes a novel approach to the detection of pronunciation errors. It makes use of the modeling of well-pronounced and mispronounced phonemes by means of the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. Four approaches that make use of the DTW phoneme modeling were developed to detect pronunciation errors: Variations of the Word Structure (VoWS), Normalized Phoneme Distances Thresholding (NPDT), Furthest Segment Search (FSS) and Normalized Furthest Segment Search (NFSS). The performance evaluation of each module was carried out using a speech database of correctly and incorrectly pronounced words in the Polish language, with up to 10 patterns of every trained word from a set of 12 words having different phonetic structures. The performance of DTW modeling was compared to Hidden Markov Models (HMM) that were used for the same four approaches (VoWS, NPDT, FSS, NFSS). The average error rate (AER) was the lowest for DTW with NPDT (AER=0.287) and scored better than HMM with FSS (AER=0.473), which was the best result for HMM. The DTW modeling was faster than HMM for all four approaches. This technique can be used for computer-assisted pronunciation training systems that can work with a relatively small training speech corpus (less than 20 patterns per word) to support speech therapy at home. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Calculating radiotherapy margins based on Bayesian modelling of patient specific random errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herschtal, A.; te Marvelde, L.; Mengersen, K.; Hosseinifard, Z.; Foroudi, F.; Devereux, T.; Pham, D.; Ball, D.; Greer, P. B.; Pichler, P.; Eade, T.; Kneebone, A.; Bell, L.; Caine, H.; Hindson, B.; Kron, T.

    2015-02-01

    Collected real-life clinical target volume (CTV) displacement data show that some patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) demonstrate significantly more fraction-to-fraction variability in their displacement (‘random error’) than others. This contrasts with the common assumption made by historical recipes for margin estimation for EBRT, that the random error is constant across patients. In this work we present statistical models of CTV displacements in which random errors are characterised by an inverse gamma (IG) distribution in order to assess the impact of random error variability on CTV-to-PTV margin widths, for eight real world patient cohorts from four institutions, and for different sites of malignancy. We considered a variety of clinical treatment requirements and penumbral widths. The eight cohorts consisted of a total of 874 patients and 27 391 treatment sessions. Compared to a traditional margin recipe that assumes constant random errors across patients, for a typical 4 mm penumbral width, the IG based margin model mandates that in order to satisfy the common clinical requirement that 90% of patients receive at least 95% of prescribed RT dose to the entire CTV, margins be increased by a median of 10% (range over the eight cohorts -19% to +35%). This substantially reduces the proportion of patients for whom margins are too small to satisfy clinical requirements.

  12. Modeling misidentification errors in capture-recapture studies using photographic identification of evolving marks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshizaki, J.; Pollock, K.H.; Brownie, C.; Webster, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) are used to identify individual animals in a capture-recapture study. Photographic identification (photoID) typically uses photographic images of animals' naturally existing features as tags (photographic tags) and is subject to two main causes of identification errors: those related to quality of photographs (non-evolving natural tags) and those related to changes in natural marks (evolving natural tags). The conventional methods for analysis of capture-recapture data do not account for identification errors, and to do so requires a detailed understanding of the misidentification mechanism. Focusing on the situation where errors are due to evolving natural tags, we propose a misidentification mechanism and outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies. We introduce methods for estimating population size based on this model. Using a simulation study, we show that conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored, and that, in comparison, our new estimators have better properties except in cases with low capture probabilities (<0.2) or low misidentification rates (<2.5%). ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

  14. Influence of precision of emission characteristic parameters on model prediction error of VOCs/formaldehyde from dry building material.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjuan Wei

    Full Text Available Mass transfer models are useful in predicting the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs and formaldehyde from building materials in indoor environments. They are also useful for human exposure evaluation and in sustainable building design. The measurement errors in the emission characteristic parameters in these mass transfer models, i.e., the initial emittable concentration (C 0, the diffusion coefficient (D, and the partition coefficient (K, can result in errors in predicting indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations. These errors have not yet been quantitatively well analyzed in the literature. This paper addresses this by using modelling to assess these errors for some typical building conditions. The error in C 0, as measured in environmental chambers and applied to a reference living room in Beijing, has the largest influence on the model prediction error in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration, while the error in K has the least effect. A correlation between the errors in D, K, and C 0 and the error in the indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration prediction is then derived for engineering applications. In addition, the influence of temperature on the model prediction of emissions is investigated. It shows the impact of temperature fluctuations on the prediction errors in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations to be less than 7% at 23±0.5°C and less than 30% at 23±2°C.

  15. Influence of precision of emission characteristic parameters on model prediction error of VOCs/formaldehyde from dry building material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wenjuan; Xiong, Jianyin; Zhang, Yinping

    2013-01-01

    Mass transfer models are useful in predicting the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and formaldehyde from building materials in indoor environments. They are also useful for human exposure evaluation and in sustainable building design. The measurement errors in the emission characteristic parameters in these mass transfer models, i.e., the initial emittable concentration (C 0), the diffusion coefficient (D), and the partition coefficient (K), can result in errors in predicting indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations. These errors have not yet been quantitatively well analyzed in the literature. This paper addresses this by using modelling to assess these errors for some typical building conditions. The error in C 0, as measured in environmental chambers and applied to a reference living room in Beijing, has the largest influence on the model prediction error in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration, while the error in K has the least effect. A correlation between the errors in D, K, and C 0 and the error in the indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration prediction is then derived for engineering applications. In addition, the influence of temperature on the model prediction of emissions is investigated. It shows the impact of temperature fluctuations on the prediction errors in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations to be less than 7% at 23±0.5°C and less than 30% at 23±2°C.

  16. High‐resolution trench photomosaics from image‐based modeling: Workflow and error analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitman, Nadine G.; Bennett, Scott E. K.; Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard; Duross, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Photomosaics are commonly used to construct maps of paleoseismic trench exposures, but the conventional process of manually using image‐editing software is time consuming and produces undesirable artifacts and distortions. Herein, we document and evaluate the application of image‐based modeling (IBM) for creating photomosaics and 3D models of paleoseismic trench exposures, illustrated with a case‐study trench across the Wasatch fault in Alpine, Utah. Our results include a structure‐from‐motion workflow for the semiautomated creation of seamless, high‐resolution photomosaics designed for rapid implementation in a field setting. Compared with conventional manual methods, the IBM photomosaic method provides a more accurate, continuous, and detailed record of paleoseismic trench exposures in approximately half the processing time and 15%–20% of the user input time. Our error analysis quantifies the effect of the number and spatial distribution of control points on model accuracy. For this case study, an ∼87  m2 exposure of a benched trench photographed at viewing distances of 1.5–7 m yields a model with <2  cm root mean square error (rmse) with as few as six control points. Rmse decreases as more control points are implemented, but the gains in accuracy are minimal beyond 12 control points. Spreading control points throughout the target area helps to minimize error. We propose that 3D digital models and corresponding photomosaics should be standard practice in paleoseismic exposure archiving. The error analysis serves as a guide for future investigations that seek balance between speed and accuracy during photomosaic and 3D model construction.

  17. Assessing and accounting for the effects of model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koepke, C.; Irving, J.; Roubinet, D.

    2014-12-01

    Geophysical methods have gained much interest in hydrology over the past two decades because of their ability to provide estimates of the spatial distribution of subsurface properties at a scale that is often relevant to key hydrological processes. Because of an increased desire to quantify uncertainty in hydrological predictions, many hydrogeophysical inverse problems have recently been posed within a Bayesian framework, such that estimates of hydrological properties and their corresponding uncertainties can be obtained. With the Bayesian approach, it is often necessary to make significant approximations to the associated hydrological and geophysical forward models such that stochastic sampling from the posterior distribution, for example using Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods, is computationally feasible. These approximations lead to model structural errors, which, so far, have not been properly treated in hydrogeophysical inverse problems. Here, we study the inverse problem of estimating unsaturated hydraulic properties, namely the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters, in a layered subsurface from time-lapse, zero-offset-profile (ZOP) ground penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected over the course of an infiltration experiment. In particular, we investigate the effects of assumptions made for computational tractability of the stochastic inversion on model prediction errors as a function of depth and time. These assumptions are that (i) infiltration is purely vertical and can be modeled by the 1D Richards equation, and (ii) the petrophysical relationship between water content and relative dielectric permittivity is known. Results indicate that model errors for this problem are far from Gaussian and independently identically distributed, which has been the common assumption in previous efforts in this domain. In order to develop a more appropriate likelihood formulation, we use (i) a stochastic description of the model error that is obtained through

  18. ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, PENDAPATAN NASIONAL DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR NOMINAL : PENDEKATAN DENGAN COINTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roosaleh Laksono T.Y.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rate, inflation, and national income on rupiah exchange rate against dollar both long-term balanced relationship and short-run balance of empirical data from 1980-2015 (36 years using secondary data. The research method used is multiple linear regression methods of OLS. This research method used to approach with cointegration and error correction model (ECM by previously passing some other stages of statistical testing. The results of the study with cointegration (Johansen Cointegration test indicate that all the independent variables (inflation, national income, and interest rate and the non-free variable (exchange rate have a long-term equilibrium relationship, as evidenced by the test results Where the trace statistic value of 102.1727 is much greater than the critical value (5% of 47.85613. In addition, the result of Maximum Eigenvalue Statistic is the result of 36.7908 greater than the critical value of 5%. 27,584434. While the results of the model error correction test (ECM that only variable inflation, interest rates and residual significant, while the variable national income is not significant. This means that the inflation and interest rate variables have a short-run relationship to the exchange rate, it is seen from the Probability (Prob. Value of each variable is 0,05 (5%, besides the residual coefficient on the ECM test result is -0,732447, it shows that error correction term is 73,24% and significant. Keywords: Interest rate; Nasional income; Inflation; Exchange rate; Cointegration; Error Correction Model. Abstrak. Penelitian  ini  bertujuan  untuk  menganalisa  pengaruh  Suku  bunga,  inflasi, dan Pendapatan Nasional terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar baik hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang maupun keseimbangan jangka pendek data empiris  tahun 1980-2015 (36 tahun dengan menggunakan data sekunder. Metode  penelitian  yang  digunakan adalah regresi

  19. Multiple mode model of tokamak transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singer, C.E.; Ghanem, E.S.; Bateman, G.; Stotler, D.P.

    1989-07-01

    Theoretical models for radical transport of energy and particles in tokamaks due to drift waves, rippling modes, and resistive ballooning modes have been combined in a predictive transport code. The resulting unified model has been used to simulate low confinement mode (L-mode) energy confinement scalings. Dependence of global energy confinement on electron density for the resulting model is also described. 26 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. Multiple system modelling of waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eriksson, Ola; Bisaillon, Mattias

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the systems. → The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. → The simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models. - Abstract: Due to increased environmental awareness, planning and performance of waste management has become more and more complex. Therefore waste management has early been subject to different types of modelling. Another field with long experience of modelling and systems perspective is energy systems. The two modelling traditions have developed side by side, but so far there are very few attempts to combine them. Waste management systems can be linked together with energy systems through incineration plants. The models for waste management can be modelled on a quite detailed level whereas surrounding systems are modelled in a more simplistic way. This is a problem, as previous studies have shown that assumptions on the surrounding system often tend to be important for the conclusions. In this paper it is shown how two models, one for the district heating system (MARTES) and another one for the waste management system (ORWARE), can be linked together. The strengths and weaknesses with model linking are discussed when compared to simplistic assumptions on effects in the energy and waste management systems. It is concluded that the linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the consequences of different simultaneous changes in the systems. The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. However, the simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models.

  1. Multiple mode model of tokamak transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singer, C.E.; Ghanem, E.S.; Bateman, G.; Stotler, D.P.

    1989-07-01

    Theoretical models for radical transport of energy and particles in tokamaks due to drift waves, rippling modes, and resistive ballooning modes have been combined in a predictive transport code. The resulting unified model has been used to simulate low confinement mode (L-mode) energy confinement scalings. Dependence of global energy confinement on electron density for the resulting model is also described. 26 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  2. Measurement error in epidemiologic studies of air pollution based on land-use regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basagaña, Xavier; Aguilera, Inmaculada; Rivera, Marcela; Agis, David; Foraster, Maria; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto; Künzli, Nino

    2013-10-15

    Land-use regression (LUR) models are increasingly used to estimate air pollution exposure in epidemiologic studies. These models use air pollution measurements taken at a small set of locations and modeling based on geographical covariates for which data are available at all study participant locations. The process of LUR model development commonly includes a variable selection procedure. When LUR model predictions are used as explanatory variables in a model for a health outcome, measurement error can lead to bias of the regression coefficients and to inflation of their variance. In previous studies dealing with spatial predictions of air pollution, bias was shown to be small while most of the effect of measurement error was on the variance. In this study, we show that in realistic cases where LUR models are applied to health data, bias in health-effect estimates can be substantial. This bias depends on the number of air pollution measurement sites, the number of available predictors for model selection, and the amount of explainable variability in the true exposure. These results should be taken into account when interpreting health effects from studies that used LUR models.

  3. Error rates in bite mark analysis in an in vivo animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avon, S L; Victor, C; Mayhall, J T; Wood, R E

    2010-09-10

    Recent judicial decisions have specified that one foundation of reliability of comparative forensic disciplines is description of both scientific approach used and calculation of error rates in determining the reliability of an expert opinion. Thirty volunteers were recruited for the analysis of dermal bite marks made using a previously established in vivo porcine-skin model. Ten participants were recruited from three separate groups: dentists with no experience in forensics, dentists with an interest in forensic odontology, and board-certified diplomates of the American Board of Forensic Odontology (ABFO). Examiner demographics and measures of experience in bite mark analysis were collected for each volunteer. Each participant received 18 completely documented, simulated in vivo porcine bite mark cases and three paired sets of human dental models. The paired maxillary and mandibular models were identified as suspect A, suspect B, and suspect C. Examiners were tasked to determine, using an analytic method of their own choosing, whether each bite mark of the 18 bite mark cases provided was attributable to any of the suspect dentitions provided. Their findings were recorded on a standardized recording form. The results of the study demonstrated that the group of inexperienced examiners often performed as well as the board-certified group, and both inexperienced and board-certified groups performed better than those with an interest in forensic odontology that had not yet received board certification. Incorrect suspect attributions (possible false inculpation) were most common among this intermediate group. Error rates were calculated for each of the three observer groups for each of the three suspect dentitions. This study demonstrates that error rates can be calculated using an animal model for human dermal bite marks, and although clinical experience is useful, other factors may be responsible for accuracy in bite mark analysis. Further, this study demonstrates

  4. Bayesian semiparametric mixture Tobit models with left censoring, skewness, and covariate measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagne, Getachew A; Huang, Yangxin

    2013-09-30

    Common problems to many longitudinal HIV/AIDS, cancer, vaccine, and environmental exposure studies are the presence of a lower limit of quantification of an outcome with skewness and time-varying covariates with measurement errors. There has been relatively little work published simultaneously dealing with these features of longitudinal data. In particular, left-censored data falling below a limit of detection may sometimes have a proportion larger than expected under a usually assumed log-normal distribution. In such cases, alternative models, which can account for a high proportion of censored data, should be considered. In this article, we present an extension of the Tobit model that incorporates a mixture of true undetectable observations and those values from a skew-normal distribution for an outcome with possible left censoring and skewness, and covariates with substantial measurement error. To quantify the covariate process, we offer a flexible nonparametric mixed-effects model within the Tobit framework. A Bayesian modeling approach is used to assess the simultaneous impact of left censoring, skewness, and measurement error in covariates on inference. The proposed methods are illustrated using real data from an AIDS clinical study. . Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Knote

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP, this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

  6. Modeling conically scanning lidar error in complex terrain with WAsP Engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bingoel, F.; Mann, J.; Foussekis, D.

    2008-11-15

    Conically scanning lidars assume the flow to be homogeneous in order to deduce the horizontal wind speed. However, in mountainous or complex terrain this assumption is not valid implying an erroneous wind speed. The magnitude of this error is measured by collocating a meteorological mast and a lidar at two Greek sites, one hilly and one mountainous. The maximum error for the sites investigated is of the order of 10%. In order to predict the error for various wind directions the flows at both sites are simulated with the linearized flow model, WAsP Engineering 2.0. The measurement data are compared with the model predictions with good results for the hilly site, but with less success at the mountainous site. This is a deficiency of the flow model, but the methods presented in this paper can be used with any flow model. An abbreviated version of this report has been submitted to Meteorologische Zeitschrift. This work is partly financed through the UPWIND project (WP6, D3) funded by the European Commission. (au)

  7. BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knote, Christoph; Barré, Jérôme; Eckl, Max

    2018-02-01

    The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX) is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX) to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP), this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

  8. Error characterization of CO2 vertical mixing in the atmospheric transport model WRF-VPRM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Karstens

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the dominant uncertainties in inverse estimates of regional CO2 surface-atmosphere fluxes is related to model errors in vertical transport within the planetary boundary layer (PBL. In this study we present the results from a synthetic experiment using the atmospheric model WRF-VPRM to realistically simulate transport of CO2 for large parts of the European continent at 10 km spatial resolution. To elucidate the impact of vertical mixing error on modeled CO2 mixing ratios we simulated a month during the growing season (August 2006 with different commonly used parameterizations of the PBL (Mellor-Yamada-Janjić (MYJ and Yonsei-University (YSU scheme. To isolate the effect of transport errors we prescribed the same CO2 surface fluxes for both simulations. Differences in simulated CO2 mixing ratios (model bias were on the order of 3 ppm during daytime with larger values at night. We present a simple method to reduce this bias by 70–80% when the true height of the mixed layer is known.

  9. The Application of Model Life Table Systems in China: Assessment of System Bias and Error

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbo Hu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0, adult mortality rate (45q15 and old age mortality rate (20q60 have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0 bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0.

  10. The application of model life table systems in China: assessment of system bias and error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Songbo; Yu, Chuanhua

    2014-12-01

    and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0), adult mortality rate (45q15) and old age mortality rate (20q60) have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0) bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs) for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0.

  11. Prevalence of refractive errors in the Slovak population calculated using the Gullstrand schematic eye model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popov, I; Valašková, J; Štefaničková, J; Krásnik, V

    2017-01-01

    A substantial part of the population suffers from some kind of refractive errors. It is envisaged that their prevalence may change with the development of society. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of refractive errors using calculations based on the Gullstrand schematic eye model. We used the Gullstrand schematic eye model to calculate refraction retrospectively. Refraction was presented as the need for glasses correction at a vertex distance of 12 mm. The necessary data was obtained using the optical biometer Lenstar LS900. Data which could not be obtained due to the limitations of the device was substituted by theoretical data from the Gullstrand schematic eye model. Only analyses from the right eyes were presented. The data was interpreted using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and t-test. The statistical tests were conducted at a level of significance of 5%. Our sample included 1663 patients (665 male, 998 female) within the age range of 19 to 96 years. Average age was 70.8 ± 9.53 years. Average refraction of the eye was 2.73 ± 2.13D (males 2.49 ± 2.34, females 2.90 ± 2.76). The mean absolute error from emmetropia was 3.01 ± 1.58 (males 2.83 ± 2.95, females 3.25 ± 3.35). 89.06% of the sample was hyperopic, 6.61% was myopic and 4.33% emmetropic. We did not find any correlation between refraction and age. Females were more hyperopic than males. We did not find any statistically significant hypermetopic shift of refraction with age. According to our estimation, the calculations of refractive errors using the Gullstrand schematic eye model showed a significant hypermetropic shift of more than +2D. Our results could be used in future for comparing the prevalence of refractive errors using same methods we used.Key words: refractive errors, refraction, Gullstrand schematic eye model, population, emmetropia.

  12. [Model of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and its application in prediction of the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ting; Chen, Lizhang; Liu, Fuqiang

    2014-11-01

    To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) according to the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha, and to explore the feasibility of the multiple seasonal ARIMA in predicting the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence. EVIEWS 6.0 was used to establish multiple seasonal ARIMA according to the hand-foot- mouth disease incidence from May 2008 to August 2013 in Changsha, and the data of the hand- foot-mouth disease incidence from September 2013 to February 2014 were served as the examined samples of the multiple seasonal ARIMA, then the errors were compared between the forecasted incidence and the real value. Finally, the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from March 2014 to August 2014 was predicted by the model. After the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identification and model diagnosis, the multiple seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was established. The R2 value of the model fitting degree was 0.81, the root mean square prediction error was 8.29 and the mean absolute error was 5.83. The multiple seasonal ARIMA is a good prediction model, and the fitting degree is good. It can provide reference for the prevention and control work in hand-foot-mouth disease.

  13. Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    , the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of  a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from  the micro-scale....

  14. Modelling Multiple Mind-Matter Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    Relations between mental and physical aspects of an agent can be of various types. Sensing and acting are among the more commonly modelled types. In agent modelling approaches often this is the only interaction between the physical and mental; other possible types of interactions are abstracted

  15. The effect of error models in the multiscale inversion of binary permeability fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, J.; Bloemenwaanders, B. V.; McKenna, S. A.; Marzouk, Y. M.

    2010-12-01

    We present results from a recently developed multiscale inversion technique for binary media, with emphasis on the effect of subgrid model errors on the inversion. Binary media are a useful fine-scale representation of heterogeneous porous media. Averaged properties of the binary field representations can be used to characterize flow through the porous medium at the macroscale. Both direct measurements of the averaged properties and upscaling are complicated and may not provide accurate results. However, it may be possible to infer upscaled properties of the binary medium from indirect measurements at the coarse scale. Multiscale inversion, performed with a subgrid model to connect disparate scales together, can also yield information on the fine-scale properties. We model the binary medium using truncated Gaussian fields, and develop a subgrid model for the upscaled permeability based on excursion sets of those fields. The subgrid model requires an estimate of the proportion of inclusions at the block scale as well as some geometrical parameters of the inclusions as inputs, and predicts the effective permeability. The inclusion proportion is assumed to be spatially varying, modeled using Gaussian processes and represented using a truncated Karhunen-Louve (KL) expansion. This expansion is used, along with the subgrid model, to pose as a Bayesian inverse problem for the KL weights and the geometrical parameters of the inclusions. The model error is represented in two different ways: (1) as a homoscedastic error and (2) as a heteroscedastic error, dependent on inclusion proportionality and geometry. The error models impact the form of the likelihood function in the expression for the posterior density of the objects of inference. The problem is solved using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, and joint posterior distributions are developed for the KL weights and inclusion geometry. Effective permeabilities and tracer breakthrough times at a few

  16. Stochastic error model corrections to improve the performance of bottom-up precipitation products for hydrologic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Ciabatta, L.; Brocca, L.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. However, uncertainties in the SM2RAIN product are still not well known and could represent a limitation in utilizing this dataset for hydrological applications. Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty associated with SM2RAIN is necessary for enabling its use. The study is conducted over the Italian territory for a 5-yr period (2010-2014). A number of satellite precipitation error properties, typically used in error modeling, are investigated and include probability of detection, false alarm rates, missed events, spatial correlation of the error, and hit biases. After this preliminary uncertainty analysis, the potential of applying the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D to correct SM2RAIN and to improve its performance in hydrologic applications is investigated. The use of SREM2D for

  17. Models for Ballistic Wind Measurement Error Analysis. Volume II. Users’ Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    TEST CHART NATIONAL li ’A il (If IANP) ARDl A -CR-83-0008-1 Reports Control Symbol OSO - 1366 MODELS FOR BALLISTIC WIND MEASUREMENTERROR ANALYSIS...AD-A129 360 MODELS FOR BALLSTIC WIND MEASUREMENT ERROR ANALYSIS VO UME 11USERS’ MAN..U) NEW REXICO STATE UNIV LAS U SS CRUCES PHYSICAL SCIENCE LAR...ACCESSION NO. 3. RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER SASL-CR-83-0008-1 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5 TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED MODELS FOR BALLISTIC WIND

  18. Stochastic Modeling of the Spatiotemporal Wavelet Coefficients and Applications to Quality Enhancement and Error Concealment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgia Feideropoulou

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We extend a stochastic model of hierarchical dependencies between wavelet coefficients of still images to the spatiotemporal decomposition of video sequences, obtained by a motion-compensated 2D+t wavelet decomposition. We propose new estimators for the parameters of this model which provide better statistical performances. Based on this model, we deduce an optimal predictor of missing samples in the spatiotemporal wavelet domain and use it in two applications: quality enhancement and error concealment of scalable video transmitted over packet networks. Simulation results show significant quality improvement achieved by this technique with different packetization strategies for a scalable video bit stream.

  19. Application of the epidemiological model in studying human error in aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheaney, E. S.; Billings, C. E.

    1981-01-01

    An epidemiological model is described in conjunction with the analytical process through which aviation occurrence reports are composed into the events and factors pertinent to it. The model represents a process in which disease, emanating from environmental conditions, manifests itself in symptoms that may lead to fatal illness, recoverable illness, or no illness depending on individual circumstances of patient vulnerability, preventive actions, and intervention. In the aviation system the analogy of the disease process is the predilection for error of human participants. This arises from factors in the operating or physical environment and results in errors of commission or omission that, again depending on the individual circumstances, may lead to accidents, system perturbations, or harmless corrections. A discussion of the previous investigations, each of which manifests the application of the epidemiological method, exemplifies its use and effectiveness.

  20. Electricity Price Forecast Using Combined Models with Adaptive Weights Selected and Errors Calibrated by Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.

  1. Sensitivity of ice flow in Greenland to errors in model forcing, using the Ice Sheet System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Halkides, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    A clear understanding of how ice sheets respond to climate change requires an examination ice sheet model uncertainty. This includes the quantification of uncertainties associated with model forcing, as well as the clarification of exactly what error sources most influence modeled ice flow dynamics. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a finite-element model capable of simulating transient ice flow on an anisotropic mesh that can be refined to higher resolutions. This model also considers longitudinal stresses in the areas of enhanced ice flow, offering a distinct advantage in terms of modeling fast-flowing outlet glaciers. With use of established uncertainty quantification capabilities within ISSM, we compare the sensitivity of ice flow within key basins of the Greenland Ice Sheet to errors in various forcing, including surface mass balance components and temperature. We investigate how these errors propagate through the model as uncertainties in estimates of Greenland ice discharge. This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program.

  2. Application of a repeat-measure biomarker measurement error model to 2 validation studies: examination of the effect of within-person variation in biomarker measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, Sarah Rosner; Spiegelman, Donna; Zhao, Barbara Bojuan; Moshfegh, Alanna; Baer, David J; Willett, Walter C

    2011-03-15

    Repeat-biomarker measurement error models accounting for systematic correlated within-person error can be used to estimate the correlation coefficient (ρ) and deattenuation factor (λ), used in measurement error correction. These models account for correlated errors in the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and the 24-hour diet recall and random within-person variation in the biomarkers. Failure to account for within-person variation in biomarkers can exaggerate correlated errors between FFQs and 24-hour diet recalls. For 2 validation studies, ρ and λ were calculated for total energy and protein density. In the Automated Multiple-Pass Method Validation Study (n=471), doubly labeled water (DLW) and urinary nitrogen (UN) were measured twice in 52 adults approximately 16 months apart (2002-2003), yielding intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.43 for energy (DLW) and 0.54 for protein density (UN/DLW). The deattenuated correlation coefficient for protein density was 0.51 for correlation between the FFQ and the 24-hour diet recall and 0.49 for correlation between the FFQ and the biomarker. Use of repeat-biomarker measurement error models resulted in a ρ of 0.42. These models were similarly applied to the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition Study (1999-2000). In conclusion, within-person variation in biomarkers can be substantial, and to adequately assess the impact of correlated subject-specific error, this variation should be assessed in validation studies of FFQs. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved.

  3. Fourier decomposition of spatial localization errors reveals an idiotropic dominance of an internal model of gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sá Teixeira, Nuno Alexandre

    2014-12-01

    Given its conspicuous nature, gravity has been acknowledged by several research lines as a prime factor in structuring the spatial perception of one's environment. One such line of enquiry has focused on errors in spatial localization aimed at the vanishing location of moving objects - it has been systematically reported that humans mislocalize spatial positions forward, in the direction of motion (representational momentum) and downward in the direction of gravity (representational gravity). Moreover, spatial localization errors were found to evolve dynamically with time in a pattern congruent with an anticipated trajectory (representational trajectory). The present study attempts to ascertain the degree to which vestibular information plays a role in these phenomena. Human observers performed a spatial localization task while tilted to varying degrees and referring to the vanishing locations of targets moving along several directions. A Fourier decomposition of the obtained spatial localization errors revealed that although spatial errors were increased "downward" mainly along the body's longitudinal axis (idiotropic dominance), the degree of misalignment between the latter and physical gravity modulated the time course of the localization responses. This pattern is surmised to reflect increased uncertainty about the internal model when faced with conflicting cues regarding the perceived "downward" direction.

  4. Increasing Patient-Clinician Concordance About Medical Error Disclosure Through the Patient TIPS Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, William; Browning, David; Varrin, Pamela; Sarnoff Lee, Barbara; Bell, Sigall K

    2017-05-10

    To test whether an educational model involving patients and family members (P/F) in medical error disclosure training for interprofessional clinicians can narrow existing gaps between clinician and P/F views about disclosure. Parallel presurveys/postsurveys using Likert scale questions for clinicians and P/F. Baseline surveys were completed by 91% (50/55) of clinicians who attended the workshops and 74% (65/88) of P/F from a hospital patient and family advisory council. P/F's baseline views about disclosure were significantly different from clinicians' in 70% (7/10) of the disclosure expectation items and 100% (3/3) of the disclosure vignette items. For example, compared with clinicians, P/F more strongly agreed that "patients want to know all the details of what happened" and more strongly disagreed that "patients find explanation(s) more confusing than helpful." In the medication error vignette, compared with clinicians, P/F more strongly agreed that the error should be disclosed and that the patient would want to know and more strongly disagreed that disclosure would do more harm than good (all P medical error disclosure and brings patient and clinicians views closer together.

  5. Developing a feeling for error: Practices of monitoring and modelling air pollution data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Garnett

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based on ethnographic research of data practices in a public health project called Weather Health and Air Pollution. (All names are pseudonyms. I examine two different kinds of practices that make air pollution data, focusing on how they relate to particular modes of sensing and articulating air pollution. I begin by describing the interstitial spaces involved in making measurements of air pollution at monitoring sites and in the running of a computer simulation. Specifically, I attend to a shared dimension of these practices, the checking of a numerical reading for error. Checking a measurement for error is routine practice and a fundamental component of making data, yet these are also moments of interpretation, where the form and meaning of numbers are ambiguous. Through two case studies of modelling and monitoring data practices, I show that making a ‘good’ (error free measurement requires developing a feeling for the instrument–air pollution interaction in terms of the intended functionality of the measurements made. These affective dimensions of practice are useful analytically, making explicit the interaction of standardised ways of knowing and embodied skill in stabilising data. I suggest that environmental data practices can be studied through researchers’ materialisation of error, which complicate normative accounts of Big Data and highlight the non-linear and entangled relations that are at work in the making of stable, accurate data.

  6. Exports and economic growth in Indonesia's fishery sub-sector: Cointegration and error-correction models

    OpenAIRE

    Sjarif, Indra Nurcahyo; 小谷, 浩示; Lin, Ching-Yang

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between fishery's exports and its economic growth in Indonesia by utilizing cointegration and error-correction models. Using annual data from 1969 to 2005, we find the evidence that there exist the long-run relationship as well as bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth in Indonesia's fishery sub-sector. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first research that examine this issue focusing on a natural resource based indu...

  7. BANK CAPITAL AND MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS: A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian NZENGUE PEGNET

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial turmoil has clearly highlighted the potential role of financial factors on amplification of macroeconomic developments and stressed the importance of analyzing the relationship between banks’ balance sheets and economic activity. This paper assesses the impact of the bank capital channel in the transmission of schocks in Europe on the basis of bank's balance sheet data. The empirical analysis is carried out through a Principal Component Analysis and in a Vector Error Correction Model.

  8. Multiple Linear Regression Model for Estimating the Price of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... In the modeling, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) normality assumption which could introduce errors in the statistical analyses was dealt with by log transformation of the data, ensuring the data is normally ... The resultant MLRM is: Ŷi MLRM = (X'X)-1X'Y(xi') where X is the sample data matrix.

  9. Testing Constancy of the Error Covariance Matrix in Vector Models against Parametric Alternatives using a Spectral Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yukay

    I consider multivariate (vector) time series models in which the error covariance matrix may be time-varying. I derive a test of constancy of the error covariance matrix against the alternative that the covariance matrix changes over time. I design a new family of Lagrange-multiplier tests against...... to consider multivariate volatility modelling....

  10. Error estimates for near-Real-Time Satellite Soil Moisture as Derived from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Parinussa, R.M.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Liu, Y.Y.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; de Jeu, R.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    A time-efficient solution to estimate the error of satellite surface soil moisture from the land parameter retrieval model is presented. The errors are estimated using an analytical solution for soil moisture retrievals from this radiative-transfer-based model that derives soil moisture from

  11. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  12. Taking error into account when fitting models using Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vaart, Elske; Prangle, Dennis; Sibly, Richard M

    2018-03-01

    Stochastic computer simulations are often the only practical way of answering questions relating to ecological management. However, due to their complexity, such models are difficult to calibrate and evaluate. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) offers an increasingly popular approach to this problem, widely applied across a variety of fields. However, ensuring the accuracy of ABC's estimates has been difficult. Here, we obtain more accurate estimates by incorporating estimation of error into the ABC protocol. We show how this can be done where the data consist of repeated measures of the same quantity and errors may be assumed to be normally distributed and independent. We then derive the correct acceptance probabilities for a probabilistic ABC algorithm, and update the coverage test with which accuracy is assessed. We apply this method, which we call error-calibrated ABC, to a toy example and a realistic 14-parameter simulation model of earthworms that is used in environmental risk assessment. A comparison with exact methods and the diagnostic coverage test show that our approach improves estimation of parameter values and their credible intervals for both models. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. SIMO optical wireless links with nonzero boresight pointing errors over M modeled turbulence channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, G. K.; Nistazakis, H. E.; Petkovic, M. I.; Djordjevic, G. T.; Tombras, G. S.

    2017-11-01

    Over the last years terrestrial free-space optical (FSO) communication systems have demonstrated an increasing scientific and commercial interest in response to the growing demands for ultra high bandwidth, cost-effective and secure wireless data transmissions. However, due the signal propagation through the atmosphere, the performance of such links depends strongly on the atmospheric conditions such as weather phenomena and turbulence effect. Additionally, their operation is affected significantly by the pointing errors effect which is caused by the misalignment of the optical beam between the transmitter and the receiver. In order to address this significant performance degradation, several statistical models have been proposed, while particular attention has been also given to diversity methods. Here, the turbulence-induced fading of the received optical signal irradiance is studied through the M (alaga) distribution, which is an accurate model suitable for weak to strong turbulence conditions and unifies most of the well-known, previously emerged models. Thus, taking into account the atmospheric turbulence conditions along with the pointing errors effect with nonzero boresight and the modulation technique that is used, we derive mathematical expressions for the estimation of the average bit error rate performance for SIMO FSO links. Finally, proper numerical results are given to verify our derived expressions and Monte Carlo simulations are also provided to further validate the accuracy of the analysis proposed and the obtained mathematical expressions.

  14. Optimization of isotherm models for pesticide sorption on biopolymer-nanoclay composite by error analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Neethu; Gupta, Suman; Gajbhiye, V T; Manjaiah, K M

    2017-04-01

    A carboxy methyl cellulose-nano organoclay (nano montmorillonite modified with 35-45 wt % dimethyl dialkyl (C 14 -C 18 ) amine (DMDA)) composite was prepared by solution intercalation method. The prepared composite was characterized by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-Ray diffraction spectroscopy (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The composite was utilized for its pesticide sorption efficiency for atrazine, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam. The sorption data was fitted into Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms using linear and non linear methods. The linear regression method suggested best fitting of sorption data into Type II Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. In order to avoid the bias resulting from linearization, seven different error parameters were also analyzed by non linear regression method. The non linear error analysis suggested that the sorption data fitted well into Langmuir model rather than in Freundlich model. The maximum sorption capacity, Q 0 (μg/g) was given by imidacloprid (2000) followed by thiamethoxam (1667) and atrazine (1429). The study suggests that the degree of determination of linear regression alone cannot be used for comparing the best fitting of Langmuir and Freundlich models and non-linear error analysis needs to be done to avoid inaccurate results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Safety Analysis of the Patch Load Resistance of Plate Girders: Influence of Model Error and Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Shahabian

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to undertake a statistical study to evaluate the accuracy of nine models that have been previously proposed for estimating the ultimate resistance of plate girders subjected to patch loading. For each model, mean errors and standard errors, as well as the probability of underestimating or overestimating patch load resistance, are estimated and the resultant values are compared one to another. Prior to that, the models are initially calibrated in order to improve interaction formulae using an experimental data set collected from the literature. The models are then analyzed by computing design factors associated with a target risk level (probability of exceedance. These models are compared one to another considering uncertainties existed in material and geometrical properties. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate random variables. The statistical parameters of the calibrated models are calculated for various coefficients of variations regardless of their correlation with the random resistance variables. These probabilistic results are very useful for evaluating the stochastic sensitivity of the calibrated models.

  16. Genome-wide meta-analyses of multiancestry cohorts identify multiple new susceptibility loci for refractive error and myopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, Virginie J. M.; Hysi, Pirro G.; Wojciechowski, Robert; Fan, Qiao; Guggenheim, Jeremy A.; Höhn, René; Macgregor, Stuart; Hewitt, Alex W.; Nag, Abhishek; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Yonova-Doing, Ekaterina; Zhou, Xin; Ikram, M. Kamran; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H. S.; McMahon, George; Kemp, John P.; Pourcain, Beate St; Simpson, Claire L.; Mäkelä, Kari-Matti; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Paterson, Andrew D.; Hosseini, S. Mohsen; Wong, Hoi Suen; Xu, Liang; Jonas, Jost B.; Pärssinen, Olavi; Wedenoja, Juho; Yip, Shea Ping; Ho, Daniel W. H.; Pang, Chi Pui; Chen, Li Jia; Burdon, Kathryn P.; Craig, Jamie E.; Klein, Barbara E. K.; Klein, Ronald; Haller, Toomas; Metspalu, Andres; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; Tai, E.-Shyong; Aung, Tin; Vithana, Eranga; Tay, Wan-Ting; Barathi, Veluchamy A.; Chen, Peng; Li, Ruoying; Liao, Jiemin; Zheng, Yingfeng; Bergen, Arthur A. B.; Chen, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Refractive error is the most common eye disorder worldwide and is a prominent cause of blindness. Myopia affects over 30% of Western populations and up to 80% of Asians. The CREAM consortium conducted genome-wide meta-analyses, including 37,382 individuals from 27 studies of European ancestry and

  17. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cattram D. Nguyen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. Analysis In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Conclusions As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  18. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Carlin, John B; Lee, Katherine J

    2017-01-01

    Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  19. Nuclear fuel rod stored-energy uncertainty analysis: a study of error propagation in complicated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, A.R.; Cunningham, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    With the increasing sophistication and use of computer codes in the nuclear industry, there is a growing awareness of the need to identify and quantify the uncertainties of these codes. In any effort to model physical mechanisms, the results obtained from the model are subject to some degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty has two primary sources. First, there is uncertainty in the model's representation of reality. Second, there is an uncertainty in the input data required by the model. If individual models are combined into a predictive sequence, the uncertainties from an individual model will propagate through the sequence and add to the uncertainty of results later obtained. Nuclear fuel rod stored-energy models, characterized as a combination of numerous submodels, exemplify models so affected. Each submodel depends on output from previous calculations and may involve iterative interdependent submodel calculations for the solution. The iterative nature of the model and the cost of running the model severely limit the uncertainty analysis procedures. An approach for uncertainty analysis under these conditions was designed for the particular case of stored-energy models. It is assumed that the complicated model is correct, that a simplified model based on physical considerations can be designed to approximate the complicated model, and that linear error propagation techniques can be used on the simplified model

  20. Assessing Variability and Errors in Historical Runoff Forecasting with Physical Models and Alternative Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Sexstone, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water supply forecasts are an important tool for water resource managers in areas where surface water is relied on for irrigating agricultural lands and for municipal water supplies. Forecast errors, which correspond to inaccurate predictions of total surface water volume, can lead to mis-allocated water and productivity loss, thus costing stakeholders millions of dollars. The objective of this investigation is to provide water resource managers with an improved understanding of factors contributing to forecast error, and to help increase the accuracy of future forecasts. In many watersheds of the western United States, snowmelt contributes 50-75% of annual surface water flow and controls both the timing and volume of peak flow. Water supply forecasts from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service, and similar cooperators use precipitation and snowpack measurements to provide water resource managers with an estimate of seasonal runoff volume. The accuracy of these forecasts can be limited by available snowpack and meteorological data. In the headwaters of the Rio Grande, NRCS produces January through June monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports. This study evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts since 1990, and examines what factors may contribute to forecast error. The Rio Grande headwaters has experienced recent changes in land cover from bark beetle infestation and a large wildfire, which can affect hydrological processes within the watershed. To investigate trends and possible contributing factors in forecast error, a semi-distributed hydrological model was calibrated and run to simulate daily streamflow for the period 1990-2015. Annual and seasonal watershed and sub-watershed water balance properties were compared with seasonal water supply forecasts. Gridded meteorological datasets were used to assess changes in the timing and volume of spring precipitation events that may contribute to forecast error. Additionally, a

  1. Multiple View Stereo by Reflectance Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Sujung; Kim, Seong Dae; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg

    2012-01-01

    we argue that a visual metric based on a surface reflectance model should be founded on more observations than the degrees of freedom (dof) of the reflectance model. If (partly) specular surfaces are to be handled, this implies a model with at least two dof. In this paper, we propose to construct...... visual metrics of more than one dof using the DAISY methodology, which compares favorably to the state of the art in the experiments carried out. These experiments are based on a novel data set of eight scenes with diffuse and specular surfaces and accompanying ground truth. The performance of six...... different visual metrics based on the DAISY framework is investigated experimentally, addressing whether a visual metric should be aggregated from a set of minimal images, which dof is best, or whether a combination of one and two dof should be used. Which metric performs best is dependent on the viewed...

  2. A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurini, Márcio Poletti

    2017-10-01

    We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

  3. Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrologic parameter and prediction error analysis using airborne electromagnetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minsley, B. J.; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen

    electromagnetic (AEM) data. Our estimates of model structural uncertainty follow a Bayesian framework that accounts for both the uncertainties in geophysical parameter estimates given AEM data, and the uncertainties in the relationship between lithology and geophysical parameters. Using geostatistical sequential......Model structure, or the spatial arrangement of subsurface lithological units, is fundamental to the hydrological behavior of Earth systems. Knowledge of geological model structure is critically important in order to make informed hydrological predictions and management decisions. Model structure...... is never perfectly known, however, and incorrect assumptions can be a significant source of error when making model predictions. We describe a systematic approach for quantifying model structural uncertainty that is based on the integration of sparse borehole observations and large-scale airborne...

  4. Optimizing radiology peer review: a mathematical model for selecting future cases based on prior errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Yun Robert; Feder, Elie; Balsim, Igor; Levin, Victor F; Bleicher, Andrew G; Branstetter, Barton F

    2010-06-01

    Peer review is an essential process for physicians because it facilitates improved quality of patient care and continuing physician learning and improvement. However, peer review often is not well received by radiologists who note that it is time intensive, is subjective, and lacks a demonstrable impact on patient care. Current advances in peer review include the RADPEER() system, with its standardization of discrepancies and incorporation of the peer-review process into the PACS itself. The purpose of this study was to build on RADPEER and similar systems by using a mathematical model to optimally select the types of cases to be reviewed, for each radiologist undergoing review, on the basis of the past frequency of interpretive error, the likelihood of morbidity from an error, the financial cost of an error, and the time required for the reviewing radiologist to interpret the study. The investigators compiled 612,890 preliminary radiology reports authored by residents and attending radiologists at a large tertiary care medical center from 1999 to 2004. Discrepancies between preliminary and final interpretations were classified by severity and validated by repeat review of major discrepancies. A mathematical model was then used to calculate, for each author of a preliminary report, the combined morbidity and financial costs of expected errors across 3 modalities (MRI, CT, and conventional radiography) and 4 departmental divisions (neuroradiology, abdominal imaging, musculoskeletal imaging, and thoracic imaging). A customized report was generated for each on-call radiologist that determined the category (modality and body part) with the highest total cost function. A universal total cost based on probability data from all radiologists was also compiled. The use of mathematical models to guide case selection could optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of physician time spent on peer review and produce more concrete and meaningful feedback to radiologists

  5. Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

  6. New experimental model of multiple myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telegin, G B; Kalinina, A R; Ponomarenko, N A; Ovsepyan, A A; Smirnov, S V; Tsybenko, V V; Homeriki, S G

    2001-06-01

    NSO/1 (P3x63Ay 8Ut) and SP20 myeloma cells were inoculated to BALB/c OlaHsd mice. NSO/1 cells allowed adequate stage-by-stage monitoring of tumor development. The adequacy of this model was confirmed in experiments with conventional cytostatics: prospidium and cytarabine caused necrosis of tumor cells and reduced animal mortality.

  7. Multiple Social Networks, Data Models and Measures for

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnani, Matteo; Rossi, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Multiple Social Network Analysis is a discipline defining models, measures, methodologies, and algorithms to study multiple social networks together as a single social system. It is particularly valuable when the networks are interconnected, e.g., the same actors are present in more than one...

  8. Visualizing Decimal Multiplication with Area Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathouz, Margaret

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study in which pre-service elementary teachers (PSTs) used rectangular area models on base-10 grid paper to begin making sense of multiplication of decimal fractions. Although connections were made to multi-digit whole number multiplication and to the distributive property, the PSTs were challenged by interpreting…

  9. Parametric modeling for damped sinusoids from multiple channels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Zhenhua; So, Hing Cheung; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2013-01-01

    The problem of parametric modeling for noisy damped sinusoidal signals from multiple channels is addressed. Utilizing the shift invariance property of the signal subspace, the number of distinct sinusoidal poles in the multiple channels is first determined. With the estimated number, the distinct...

  10. Modeling error and stability of endothelial cytoskeletal membrane parameters based on modeling transendothelial impedance as resistor and capacitor in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodmer, James E; English, Anthony; Brady, Megan; Blackwell, Ken; Haxhinasto, Kari; Fotedar, Sunaina; Borgman, Kurt; Bai, Er-Wei; Moy, Alan B

    2005-09-01

    Transendothelial impedance across an endothelial monolayer grown on a microelectrode has previously been modeled as a repeating pattern of disks in which the electrical circuit consists of a resistor and capacitor in series. Although this numerical model breaks down barrier function into measurements of cell-cell adhesion, cell-matrix adhesion, and membrane capacitance, such solution parameters can be inaccurate without understanding model stability and error. In this study, we have evaluated modeling stability and error by using a chi(2) evaluation and Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least-squares (LM-NLS) method of the real and/or imaginary data in which the experimental measurement is compared with the calculated measurement derived by the model. Modeling stability and error were dependent on current frequency and the type of experimental data modeled. Solution parameters of cell-matrix adhesion were most susceptible to modeling instability. Furthermore, the LM-NLS method displayed frequency-dependent instability of the solution parameters, regardless of whether the real or imaginary data were analyzed. However, the LM-NLS method identified stable and reproducible solution parameters between all types of experimental data when a defined frequency spectrum of the entire data set was selected on the basis of a criterion of minimizing error. The frequency bandwidth that produced stable solution parameters varied greatly among different data types. Thus a numerical model based on characterizing transendothelial impedance as a resistor and capacitor in series and as a repeating pattern of disks is not sufficient to characterize the entire frequency spectrum of experimental transendothelial impedance.

  11. Statistical Modeling of Radiometric Error Propagation in Support of Hyperspectral Imaging Inversion and Optimized Ground Sensor Network Design

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Klempner, Scott

    2008-01-01

    .... Error modeling and propagation methodology is developed for each link in the imaging chain, and representative values are determined for the purpose of exercising the model and observing the system...

  12. Group Targets Tracking Using Multiple Models GGIW-CPHD Based on Best-Fitting Gaussian Approximation and Strong Tracking Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Gamma Gaussian inverse Wishart cardinalized probability hypothesis density (GGIW-CPHD algorithm was always used to track group targets in the presence of cluttered measurements and missing detections. A multiple models GGIW-CPHD algorithm based on best-fitting Gaussian approximation method (BFG and strong tracking filter (STF is proposed aiming at the defect that the tracking error of GGIW-CPHD algorithm will increase when the group targets are maneuvering. The best-fitting Gaussian approximation method is proposed to implement the fusion of multiple models using the strong tracking filter to correct the predicted covariance matrix of the GGIW component. The corresponding likelihood functions are deduced to update the probability of multiple tracking models. From the simulation results we can see that the proposed tracking algorithm MM-GGIW-CPHD can effectively deal with the combination/spawning of groups and the tracking error of group targets in the maneuvering stage is decreased.

  13. Soft landing on an irregular shape asteroid using Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlandiHallaj, MohammadAmin; Assadian, Nima

    2017-11-01

    This study has introduced a predictive framework including a heuristic guidance law named Predictive Path Planning and Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control as the control scheme for soft landing on an irregular-shaped asteroid. The dynamical model of spacecraft trajectory around an asteroid is introduced. The reference-landing trajectory is generated using Predictive Path Planning. Not only does the presented guidance law satisfy the collision avoidance constraint, but also guarantees the landing accuracy and vertical landing condition. Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control is employed to make the spacecraft track the designed reference trajectory. The proposed control approach, which is a Model Predictive Control scheme, utilizes several prediction models instead of one. In this manner, it heritages the advantages of optimality and tackling external disturbances and model uncertainties from classical Model Predictive Control and at the same time has the advantage of lower computational burden than Model Predictive Control. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control approach in achieving the desired conditions in presence of uncertainties and disturbances.

  14. In-Body Ranging with Ultra-Wideband Signals: Techniques and Modeling of the Ranging Error

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muzaffer Kanaan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Results about the problem of accurate ranging within the human body using ultra-wideband signals are shown. The ability to accurately measure the range between a sensor implanted in the human body and an external receiver can make a number of new medical applications such as better wireless capsule endoscopy, next-generation microrobotic surgery systems, and targeted drug delivery systems possible. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, we propose two novel range estimators: one based on an implementation of the so-called CLEAN algorithm for estimating channel profiles and another based on neural networks. Second, we develop models to describe the statistics of the ranging error for both types of estimators. Such models are important for the design and performance analysis of localization systems. It is shown that the ranging error in both cases follows a heavy-tail distribution known as the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Our results also indicate that the estimator based on neural networks outperforms the CLEAN-based estimator, providing ranging errors better than or equal to 3.23 mm with 90% probability.

  15. Modeling Inborn Errors of Hepatic Metabolism Using Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pournasr, Behshad; Duncan, Stephen A

    2017-11-01

    Inborn errors of hepatic metabolism are because of deficiencies commonly within a single enzyme as a consequence of heritable mutations in the genome. Individually such diseases are rare, but collectively they are common. Advances in genome-wide association studies and DNA sequencing have helped researchers identify the underlying genetic basis of such diseases. Unfortunately, cellular and animal models that accurately recapitulate these inborn errors of hepatic metabolism in the laboratory have been lacking. Recently, investigators have exploited molecular techniques to generate induced pluripotent stem cells from patients' somatic cells. Induced pluripotent stem cells can differentiate into a wide variety of cell types, including hepatocytes, thereby offering an innovative approach to unravel the mechanisms underlying inborn errors of hepatic metabolism. Moreover, such cell models could potentially provide a platform for the discovery of therapeutics. In this mini-review, we present a brief overview of the state-of-the-art in using pluripotent stem cells for such studies. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. Modelling earthquake location errors at a reservoir scale: a case study in the Upper Rhine Graben

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnaert, X.; Gaucher, E.; Achauer, U.; Kohl, T.

    2016-08-01

    Earthquake absolute location errors which can be encountered in an underground reservoir are investigated. In such an exploitation context, earthquake hypocentre errors can have an impact on the field development and economic consequences. The approach using the state-of-the-art techniques covers both the location uncertainty and the location inaccuracy—or bias—problematics. It consists, first, in creating a 3-D synthetic seismic cloud of events in the reservoir and calculating the seismic traveltimes to a monitoring network assuming certain propagation conditions. In a second phase, the earthquakes are relocated with assumptions different from the initial conditions. Finally, the initial and relocated hypocentres are compared. As a result, location errors driven by the seismic onset time picking uncertainties and inaccuracies are quantified in 3-D. Effects induced by erroneous assumptions associated with the velocity model are also modelled. In particular, 1-D velocity model uncertainties, a local 3-D perturbation of the velocity and a 3-D geostructural model are considered. The present approach is applied to the site of Rittershoffen (Alsace, France), which is one of the deep geothermal fields existing in the Upper Rhine Graben. This example allows setting realistic scenarios based on the knowledge of the site. In that case, the zone of interest, monitored by an existing seismic network, ranges between 1 and 5 km depth in a radius of 2 km around a geothermal well. Well log data provided a reference 1-D velocity model used for the synthetic earthquake relocation. The 3-D analysis highlights the role played by the seismic network coverage and the velocity model in the amplitude and orientation of the location uncertainties and inaccuracies at subsurface levels. The location errors are neither isotropic nor aleatoric in the zone of interest. This suggests that although location inaccuracies may be smaller than location uncertainties, both quantities can have a

  17. A more realistic estimate of the variances and systematic errors in spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lowes, F.J.; Olsen, Nils

    2004-01-01

    , led to quite inaccurate variance estimates. We estimate correction factors which range from 1/4 to 20, with the largest increases being for the zonal, m = 0, and sectorial, m = n, terms. With no correction, the OSVM variances give a mean-square vector field error of prediction over the Earth's surface......Most modern spherical harmonic geomagnetic models based on satellite data include estimates of the variances of the spherical harmonic coefficients of the model